WorldWideScience

Sample records for monitor population trends

  1. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

    of criteria for the selection of the zoonotic agent/animal or food category combinations where trend analyses would be justified. Based on data available from 2004 to 2007, the following combinations are suggested for trend analyses: Salmonella in fresh broiler and pig meat, flocks of laying hens and broilers......Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general...

  3. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  4. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012–2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82–3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27–9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71–26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63–19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48–84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36–412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. PMID:28334150

  5. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Jin, Dao-Chao; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-04-01

    Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012-2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82-3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27-9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71-26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63-19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48-84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36-412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  6. Monitoring Diabrotica v. virgifera (Col.: Chrysomelidae) in southeastern Slovenia: increasing population trend and host spectrum expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrichs, C; Dinnesen, S; Nedelev, T; Hummel, H E; Modic, S; Urek, G

    2008-01-01

    Ever since the western corn rootworm (WCR) (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera), an alien invasive species from North America, has been introduced into Europe on at least 3 separate occasions, it spread within 15 years over the entire area of south-eastern and central Europe (except Denmark). Until quite recently, Zea mays L. was the only known host plant whereas in North America WCR also attacks members of the plant family Cucurbitaceae. In August of 2006, we were able to validate these findings also in the Old World by observing WCR visiting blossoms of oil pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.). Beside this first report of WCR on this regionally and economically important crop, a population increase in Gaberje near Lendava, Eastern Slovenia, was observed. Some future consequences of multiple hosts for integrated pest management (IPM) of WCR are being discussed.

  7. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  8. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  9. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  10. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  11. [Trends in the nutritional status of the Spanish population: results from the Catalan nutrition monitoring system (1992-2003)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra Majem, Luis; Ribas Barba, Lourdes; Salvador Castell, Gemma; Roman Viñas, Blanca; Castell Abat, Conxa; Cabezas Peña, Carmen; Pastor Ferrer, Mari Cruz; Raidó Quintana, Blanca; Ngo de la Cruz, Joy; García Alvarez, Alicia; Serra Farró, Jaume; Salleras Sanmartí, Luis; Taradach Antoni, Plasencia

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the changes in the nutricional habits and nutricional status of the Catalan population over 10 years interval of the two Catalan Nutricional Surveys conducted in 1992-93 and 2002-03. 2641 individuals in 1992-93 and 2060 individuals in 2002-03 aged 10 to 75 years participated in the surveys. Two 24 hour recall, a food frequency questionnaire, and a general questionnaire with information on physical activity, knowledge and opinions on nutrition and supplements use were administered. Weight (Kg), height (cm) and waist circumference (WC) (cm) were measured. A subsample of the population underwent a biochemical evaluation. Total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, tryglicerides and beta-carotene, alpha-tocopherol and retinol were measured. A decrease in the consumption of fruit, vegetables, potatoes, meat and fish and an increase in the consumption of dairy products and fast food (in young individuals) were reported. An increase in the mean value of Body Mass Index (BMI) was observed among males, and an increase in WC mean value was observed in males and females. BMI value decreased in females (except among the younger ones). The prevalence of obesity increased among males (from 9.9% to 16.6%), but not in females. Both total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol decreased. A decrease was observed in the percentage of population with sedentary habits during leisure time. There is a need for an effective nutrition policy promoting healthy nutrition in accordance with the ongoing dietary guidelines.

  12. Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G W; Tan, P C

    1985-09-01

    Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

  13. Population Trends and the Status of Population Policy in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogge, John R.

    1982-01-01

    The major trend towards worldwide easing of the birthrate does not include the current population patterns in Africa. The population policies of African nations range along a continuum from totally pronatal to strongly antinatal. However, even antinatal policies have had little effect on the overall spiralling upward population trend. (JA)

  14. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  15. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

    1976-10-01

    Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US

  17. [Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billet, J; Rougier, H

    1984-01-01

    Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.

  18. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  19. Trend Monitoring System (TMS) graphics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. S.

    1979-01-01

    A prototype bus communications systems, which is being used to support the Trend Monitoring System (TMS) and to evaluate the bus concept is considered. A set of FORTRAN-callable graphics subroutines for the host MODCOMP comuter, and an approach to splitting graphics work between the host and the system's intelligent graphics terminals are described. The graphics software in the MODCOMP and the operating software package written for the graphics terminals are included.

  20. Inferring population trends of Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Matrix population models may generate important information to prevent undesirable outcomes for endangered species. This is the case for Araucaria angustifolia, a Critically Endangered conifer, with little knowledge regarding its life history and trends in development over time. This study sought to investigate life-history ...

  1. Trends in consumption of fats and oils among Indian tribal population over a period of 30 years: Findings of National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Laxmaiah

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In several randomized control trials, it was observed that the dietary fat content has a little, but a significant effect on energy consumption and body weight. The purpose of this communication was to assess fat consumption among tribals, time trends and its association with obesity and hypertension. Methods: These were community based cross-sectional studies, adopted multistage random sampling procedure. The subjects were covered from 120 randomly selected villages each from 9 states in India. Information on household socio-economic & demographic and food intakes were collected. Anthropometric parameters and blood pressure were measured by using standard equipment and procedures. Results: The mean intake of food and nutrients were assessed in 14,324, 32,023, and 41507 tribal subjects in 1985-87, 1998-99 and 2008-09, respectively. The mean consumption of visible fats was 10g/CU/day, as against requirement of 20g and increased from 7g in 1985-87 to 10g in 2008-09. The percentage of energy obtained from total fat (20.8g/day was 10% as against safe limit of 20%. The consumption of total dietary fats was increased significantly over a period of 3 decades in all the age groups, but it is less than recommended levels of ICMR. The fat intake was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. Conclusions: Even though fat consumption was increased in all the age groups, but less than the recommended levels of ICMR. The consumption of fat was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. There is an urgent need to create awareness among tribal population to consume adequate and quality of fats.

  2. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Population trends around nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, M.; Krueckeberg, D.A.; Kaltman, M.

    1984-01-01

    Site selection criteria used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission emphasize the selection of low population areas in which little growth is anticipated. This research examines population growth after site selection for the period 1960 to 1980 for forty-three operating sites. Substantial increments of population increase were found, only partially explained by national, regional, and host county growth trends impacting local host areas. These local components of change became especially important in the decade of the 1970s, when most of the plants were in full operation. The decade of the 1970s also saw a marked shift from the geographic pattern of growth of the 60s, when few plants were in operation. These larger and different growth components of the 1970s, also unexplained by preliminary analysis of correlation with coastal locations and degree of urbanization, are classified into categories with high potential and interest for further research

  4. Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

    2017-01-01

    Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

  5. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  6. World population trends in 1960-70.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L; Kono, S

    1974-01-01

    burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.

  7. Research Note Identifying key grazing indicators to monitor trends in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Research Note Identifying key grazing indicators to monitor trends in the veld condition of Lambert's Bay Strandveld, South Africa. ... from which a minimum number of species necessary to monitor trends in the condition of the veld were determined, making it user-friendly for land-users, extension officers and others. The key ...

  8. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  9. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  10. Women, population and development trends since 1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, H

    1989-01-01

    This paper review progress over the past 5 years with respect to the 6 recommendations adopted at the International Conference on Population 1984, which specifically address the situation of women. They include: 1) integrating women into development, 2) women's economic participation, 3) education, training, and employment, 4) raising the age at marriage, 5) the active involvement of men in all areas of family responsibility, and 6) the ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Several important areas potentially relevant to population issues which were omitted from the Conference recommendations are identified and discussed--namely, the situation of women (in particular, older women, women who are the sole supporters of families, and women and migration) and the situation of women in times of severe economic adversity. Finally, progress made with respect to data on women is highlighted, and caution is advised with respect to continued calls for new data. In contrast to the Nairobi Forward-Looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, the recommendations are noted for implying an almost unresolvable conflict between women's biological and economic roles. However, it is pointed out that the goals of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women for full equality of men and women would require that the same choices be available to both sexes with respect to labor force participation. While it is too soon to have a clear perspective on the pace and direction of change during the past 5 years, the author finds it impossible to be optimistic about current trends because, in too many areas, progress regarding women has either stagnated or moved into reverse gear. The disappointing record is partially attributed to the tendency for policy makers to see the promotion of economic growth through sound economic policy and advancing the status of women as competing rather than

  11. Trends of chemical monitoring in power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.; Venz, H.

    1983-01-01

    Frequently, the state-of-the-art of chemical monitoring in power plants is still determined by conservative methods. A thorough rationalization requires not only modern analytical procedures, but also the consideration of chemically affected processes in complex process analyses and the combination of automatic analyzers with available process computers. Using some examples, ways of reducing monitoring efforts without impairing safety and economy of nuclear power plant operation are pointed out. (author)

  12. 40 CFR 52.140 - Monitoring transportation trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Monitoring transportation trends. 52.140 Section 52.140 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.140 Monitoring transportation...

  13. Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Wei; Liu Jinju

    2009-01-01

    Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends under the family planning policy and economic development. Only one mortality scenario is applied and net international migration is assumed to be null in the population projection. Future life tables ar...

  14. New trends in structural health monitoring

    CERN Document Server

    Güemes, J

    2013-01-01

    Experts actively working in structural health monitoring and control techniques present the current research, areas of application and tendencies for the future of this technology, including various design issues involved. Examples using some of the latest hardware and software tools, experimental data from small scale laboratory demonstrators and measurements made on real structures illustrate the book. It will be a reference for professionals and students in the areas of engineering, applied natural sciences and engineering management.

  15. Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

    2017-01-01

    Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

  16. Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen B Strier

    Full Text Available Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides. In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

  17. Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-12-01

    The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

  18. Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceira, Monica [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Blom, Philip Stephen [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maccarthy, Jonathan K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Euler, Garrett Gene [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Begnaud, Michael Lee [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ford, Sean R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Orris, Gregory J. [Naval Research Laboratory; Foxe, Michael P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Sandia National Laboratory; Merchant, B. John [Sandia National Laboratory; Slinkard, Megan E. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2017-06-01

    This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the document for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.

  19. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  20. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Breiwick, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos) have been studied for more than 40 years. Radio telemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006). Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year unduplicated also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear least squares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006), which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  1. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. L. Eberhardt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos have been studied for more than 40 years. Radiotelemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006. Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year “unduplicated” also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear leastsquares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006, which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  2. Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

  3. Forest Health Monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2015-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  4. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2017-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introducesnew techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed...

  5. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2015-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  6. Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Need, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

  7. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  8. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  9. Trends in Childspacing: June 1975. Current Population Reports: Population Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Maurice J.; And Others

    This report, largely statistical tables, presents data from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, on the timing and spacing of childbearing and discusses how such data is related to annual measures of fertility. By categorizing women according to their year of birth (birth cohort) or period of first marriage (marriage cohort), in addition to…

  10. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  11. Population structure and genetic trends for indigenous African beef ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to investigate population structure and genetic trends based on pedigree and performance records of five indigenous African beef cattle breeds (Afrikaner, Boran, Drakensberger, Nguni and Tuli) in South Africa. Pedigree completeness over six generations was higher than 88.5% in the first ...

  12. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  13. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  14. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  15. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  16. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  17. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  18. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  19. A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Zhu, Zhu-Liang; Quayle, Brad; Howard, Stephen M.

    2007-01-01

    Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range

  20. Can neonatal TSH screening reflect trends in population iodine intake?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Burns, Robert

    2008-08-01

    The distribution of neonatal blood thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations has been used as an index reflecting population dietary iodine intake, with higher concentrations being indicative of lower iodine intake. We examined this distribution in neonates born in Ireland, where the pregnant population has shown a recent decline in urinary iodine (UI) excretion. Our objectives were to determine if any alteration was observed in the percentage of values > 5.0 mIU\\/L and whether a trend in neonatal blood TSH was apparent.

  1. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  2. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  4. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  5. [Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

    2013-10-01

    To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

  6. 25 years acidification monitoring in Bavaria. Trends and developments; 25 Jahre Versauerungsmonitoring in Bayern. Trends und Entwicklungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheel, Thorsten

    2015-07-15

    In Bavaria, the development of the atmospheric caused acidification within all relevant environmental compartments (soil, water, air) is monitored by an intensive monitoring for more than 25 years. This report covers the trends and developments of chemical and biological indicators of flowing waters, groundwater and lakes are summarized evaluated and displayed. [German] In Bayern wird seit mehr als 25 Jahren die Entwicklung der atmosphaerisch bedingten Versauerung innerhalb aller betroffenen Umweltkompartimente (Boden, Wasser, Luft) durch ein intensives Monitoring ueberwacht. In diesem Bericht sind die Trends und Entwicklungen chemischer und biologischer Indikatoren der Fliessgewaesser, Grundwaesser und Seen zusammenfassend ausgewertet und dargestellt.

  7. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  8. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  9. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  10. Trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olajide Toye Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The reported health and socioeconomic consequences of ear piercing, especially in modern day society, underscore the need to further research into this subject. In this study, we determine the trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population. Aim and Objectives: The aim and objective of this study was to draw attention to the trends and complications of ear piercing with a view to prevent its associated complications. Methodology: It is a descriptive cross-sectional study carried out between February and May 2015 among selected Nigerian population from two of its six geo-political zones. A self-administered semi-structured questionnaire which had been pretested was used to collect data from 458 respondents who consented using multistage sampling technique. Results: Of 480 respondents enumerated, 458 completed the questionnaires and gave their biodata. The male:female ratio was 1:6.2. Their ages ranged from 18 to 75 years with a mean of 35.56 ± 10.16. About 35.4% of the respondents were within the age group of 31–40 years. Majority of the respondents, i.e.,79.3% practiced ear piercing on their children. Most of them (86.8% preferred single piercing. Ear piercing was performed within the 1st week of birth in 37.2% of the respondents. Large percentage (93.2% of the respondents will not encourage ear piercing in male children. Nearly 20.5% of the respondents observed complications. Conclusion: Ear piercing remained a common practice in Nigeria, with respondents preferring it on females. Majority of the piercings are done in childhood and by untrained personnel. Keloid formation was the notable complication observed by the respondents. There is a need to increase awareness about the hazards of ear piercings and to enact laws that regulate ear piercings particularly in children which is hereby stretched.

  11. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbieri Flavia L

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the

  12. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  13. Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

  14. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  15. Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, R.D.; Carney, D.W.; Chilton-Radandt, T.; Courville, S.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Harris, R.B.; Jonkel, J.; McLellan, B.; Madel, M.; Manley, T.L.; Schwartz, C.C.; Servheen, C.; Stenhouse, G.; Waller, J.S.; Wenum, E.

    2012-01-01

    We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (mx) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

  16. Population trends of Goričko agricultural landscape birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denac Katarina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to numerous bird surveys in the past 20 years, the avifauna of Goričko is relatively well known. For some species, the very first national ecological researches were conducted in this area. The article summarizes all bird surveys so far. It presents population trends of farmland species which is one of the most threatened bird groups in Europe. Most of the qualifying species of this habitat that are protected within the Natura 2000 network have suffered a decline at Goričko, specifically Quail Coturnix coturnix, Scops Owl Otus scops, Hoopoe Upupa epops, Woodlark Lullula arborea and White Stork Ciconia ciconia. The number of breeding pairs of the latter has not changed, but its fecundity has decreased. Furthermore, populations of other farmland bird species have decreased, for example Skylark Alauda arvensis, Stonechat Saxicola rubicola, Serin Serinus serinus and Common Linnet Linaria cannabina, as well as butterfly populations and tracts of grassland habitat types. National agricultural and nature conservation policies are evidently inefficient in protecting the biodiversity of Goričko. The most probable cause for bird population decline is agricultural intensification, which manifests itself at Goričko as disappearance and intensification of meadows, land consolidation, degradation of traditional orchards and use of pesticides. As a result of land consolidation hedges, uncultivated strips between fields, individual trees and bushes and minority habitat types are disappearing, whereas the surface of arable fields is increasing. Nature conservation measures performed by the Public Institute Goričko Nature Park with the support of DOPPS – BirdLife Slovenia volunteers seem to be efficient, but are spatially and temporally constrained. For this reason, they cannot serve as a substitute for insufficient systemic financing which could be improved by substantive and financial reform of the agri-environmental scheme. Currently, a negligible

  17. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  18. Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

  19. Trends in childhood injury mortality in South African population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Trends in major causes of injury mortality and the proportion of total deaths attributable to injuries trom 1968·to 1985 tor white, coloured and Asian children < 15 years in the RSA were examined. There were 937 injury deaths in 1968 and 853 in 1985 but no clear trends in overall mortality rates were observed. There were ...

  20. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  1. Breeding Status and Population Trends of Golden Eagles in Northeastern Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Morneau

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In North America, it is hypothesized that the Golden Eagle's (Aquila chrysaetos eastern population declined during the period 1946-1973 because of organochlorine pesticides and other anthropogenic causes of mortality. Since 1970, upward trends for the species have been observed at most eastern hawkwatches. To determine whether such positive trends can be observed on breeding grounds, Golden Eagle counts were performed to monitor nesting territory occupancy between 1994 and 2007 in the Moisie and Sainte-Marguerite River valleys, northeastern Québec. Aerial surveys were conducted during seven of the 14 years. During this period, the number of known nesting territories in the study area increased from 10 to 20, while the number of pairs rose from six to 14. The increase is attributed mostly to investigators' improved experience in finding nests and to their greater familiarity with the study area, and possibly to the growth of the regional population. Occupancy of nesting territories by pairs was very stable over the years. Annual mean % of laying pairs (or laying rate was 48.0 (SD = 19.9, and productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair was 0.49 (SD = 0.35.

  2. Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Ellen S.

    Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

  3. Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77

    OpenAIRE

    Strobino, Donna M.

    1982-01-01

    Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...

  4. The Recent Development of Croatia's Population – Regular and Irregular Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Lajić

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent development of Croatia’s population is burdened by many phenomena, due to which we can define it as irregular. Aggression against the newly-independent Croatian state, as well as the wars in its neighbourhood, brought about mechanical population movements that to a great degree enter into the category of forced migrations. The war death rate in the early 1990s and the strong refugee and expellee flows caused the strongest depopulation in recent times. Depopulation was present not only in war-effected areas – its further consequences were felt throughout Croatia. The mechanical, rather than the biological component determined this regressive development. The paper identifies the key modalities in migration flows in Croatia, which show that it is at the same time both an emigration and an immigration country. Wars in former Yugoslavia, which were to a high degree characterized by inter-ethnic conflicts, resulted in migration flows of people to their ethnic core areas. Thus, Croatia has received a strong immigration current made up of Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, whereas emigration from Croatia to the latter countries mostly involved rural Serbs. Besides these migration trends, members of the ethnically Croatian (majority population and also other groups from Croatia, have migrated to Western Europe, which was a continuation of traditional migration trends. Among these migrants there is a large contingent which could be denoted as part of the “brain drain”. The census conducted in 2001 applied a different methodology than earlier censuses. The problem of different census methodologies is especially pertinent in a country which has a large number of refugees and economic migrants that cannot be classified into the category of emigrants. Thus the 2001 Census registered that Croatia has 4,437,460 inhabitants, or 7.25% less than in 1991.

  5. Counting migrants to monitor bird populations: state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erica H. Dunn

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to summarize background information on what migration monitoring is, what biases are present and how they can be addressed, evidence that resulting trends are biologically meaningful, and what the benefits and limitations of the method are. Some topics have been covered elsewhere in greater detail (Dunn and Hussell 1995, Dunn et al. 1997,...

  6. Design to monitor trend in abundance and presence of American beaver (Castor canadensis) at the national forest scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Jeffrey L; Dauwalter, Daniel C; Gerow, Kenneth G; Hayward, Gregory D

    2010-05-01

    Wildlife conservationists design monitoring programs to assess population dynamics, project future population states, and evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations. Because agency mandates and conservation laws call for monitoring data to elicit management responses, it is imperative to design programs that match the administrative scale for which management decisions are made. We describe a program to monitor population trends in American beaver (Castor canadensis) on the US Department of Agriculture, Black Hills National Forest (BHNF) in southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming, USA. Beaver have been designated as a management indicator species on the BHNF because of their association with riparian and aquatic habitats and its status as a keystone species. We designed our program to monitor the density of beaver food caches (abundance) within sampling units with beaver and the proportion of sampling units with beavers present at the scale of a national forest. We designated watersheds as sampling units in a stratified random sampling design that we developed based on habitat modeling results. Habitat modeling indicated that the most suitable beaver habitat was near perennial water, near aspen (Populus tremuloides) and willow (Salix spp.), and in low gradient streams at lower elevations. Results from the initial monitoring period in October 2007 allowed us to assess costs and logistical considerations, validate our habitat model, and conduct power analyses to assess whether our sampling design could detect the level of declines in beaver stated in the monitoring objectives. Beaver food caches were located in 20 of 52 sampled watersheds. Monitoring 20 to 25 watersheds with beaver should provide sufficient power to detect 15-40% declines in the beaver food cache index as well as a twofold decline in the odds of beaver being present in watersheds. Indices of abundance, such as the beaver food cache index, provide a practical measure of

  7. Trends in monitoring patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Springborg, J B; Frederiksen, H-J; Eskesen, V

    2005-01-01

    After aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), the clinical outcome depends upon the primary haemorrhage and a number of secondary insults in the acute post-haemorrhagic period. Some secondary insults are potentially preventable but prevention requires prompt recognition of cerebral or systemic...... implemented monitoring system provides answers but it also raises valuable new questions challenging our current understanding of the brain injury after SAH....... complications. Currently, several neuro-monitoring techniques are available; this review describes the most frequently used techniques and discusses indications for their use, and their value in diagnosis and prognosis. None of the techniques, when considered in isolation, has proved sufficient after SAH...... with the conventional monitoring systems, for example intracranial pressure measurements, transcranial Doppler ultrasound and modern neuro-imaging, direct assessment of biochemical markers by intracerebral microdialysis is promising in the advancement of neurointensive care of patients with SAH. A successfully...

  8. Radiation detectors for personnel monitoring - current developments and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kannan, S.

    2003-01-01

    The radiation detectors for personnel monitoring range from the conventional passive dosimeters like the film badge and the TLD, to sophisticated active dosimeters for integrated gamma, beta and neutron dose measurement. With the availability of high accuracy active dosimeters, the process of personnel monitoring, acceptability among radiation workers, record keeping and dose control have become more simplified. However the high level of sophistication in the active dosimeter has its own inevitable price tag and the new breed of active dosimeters are prohibitively costly. The silver lining, in the otherwise dark cost scenario of these dosimeters is the potential for cost reduction at least in some of the dosimeters in the near future

  9. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  10. Ethical issues in using Twitter for population-level depression monitoring: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikal, Jude; Hurst, Samantha; Conway, Mike

    2016-04-14

    Recently, significant research effort has focused on using Twitter (and other social media) to investigate mental health at the population-level. While there has been influential work in developing ethical guidelines for Internet discussion forum-based research in public health, there is currently limited work focused on addressing ethical problems in Twitter-based public health research, and less still that considers these issues from users' own perspectives. In this work, we aim to investigate public attitudes towards utilizing public domain Twitter data for population-level mental health monitoring using a qualitative methodology. The study explores user perspectives in a series of five, 2-h focus group interviews. Following a semi-structured protocol, 26 Twitter users with and without a diagnosed history of depression discussed general Twitter use, along with privacy expectations, and ethical issues in using social media for health monitoring, with a particular focus on mental health monitoring. Transcripts were then transcribed, redacted, and coded using a constant comparative approach. While participants expressed a wide range of opinions, there was an overall trend towards a relatively positive view of using public domain Twitter data as a resource for population level mental health monitoring, provided that results are appropriately aggregated. Results are divided into five sections: (1) a profile of respondents' Twitter use patterns and use variability; (2) users' privacy expectations, including expectations regarding data reach and permanence; (3) attitudes towards social media based population-level health monitoring in general, and attitudes towards mental health monitoring in particular; (4) attitudes towards individual versus population-level health monitoring; and (5) users' own recommendations for the appropriate regulation of population-level mental health monitoring. Focus group data reveal a wide range of attitudes towards the use of public

  11. Principles of monitoring for the radiation protection of the population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sowby, F.D.

    1984-01-01

    In this report all exposures are considered except occupational exposure and exposure to patients from medical uses of radiation. The subject is dealt with under the following headings: explanation of terms and relevant recommendations of the I.C.R.P., interaction between modelling and monitoring, general objectives and requirements of monitoring programmes, monitoring of source, environment and individuals within the population, quality assurance. (U.K.)

  12. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  13. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  14. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predatory Bird Research Group Long Marine Laboratory

    1999-01-01

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial re-occupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of sub-adults as members of breeding pairs

  15. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, W. G.; Jackman, R. E.; Hunt, T. L.; Driscoll, D. E.; Culp, L.

    1999-07-20

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial reoccupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of subadults as members of breeding pairs.

  16. Wireless-accessible sensor populations for monitoring biological variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzu, Marco; Scalvini, Simonetta; Giordano, A.; Frumento, E.; Wells, Hannah; Lokhorst, C.; Glisenti, Fulvio

    2008-01-01

    The current health-care infrastructure is generally considered to be inadequate to meet the needs of an increasingly older population. We have investigated the feasibility of a passive in-home monitoring system based on wireless accessible sensor populations (WASP). In an EU-funded project we have

  17. River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel T Turvey

    Full Text Available Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

  18. Genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mäki, K.; Groen, A.F.; Liinamo, A.E.; Ojala, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations. The influence of time-dependent fixed effects in the model when estimating the genetic trends was also studied. Official hip and elbow dysplasia screening

  19. Trends in cannabis use disorders among racial/ethnic population groups in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Tzy; Zhu, He; Swartz, Marvin S

    2016-08-01

    Minority groups generally experience more disparities than whites in behavioral healthcare use. The population of racial/ethnic groups is growing faster than whites. Given increased concerns of cannabis use (CU) and its associations with health conditions, we examined national trends in cannabis use disorder (CUD) among adults aged ≥18 by race/ethnicity. Data were from the 2005-2013 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N=340,456). We compared CU patterns and the conditional prevalence of CUD among cannabis users by race/ethnicity to understand racial/ethnic variations in CUD. Approximately 1.5% of adults met criteria for a CUD in the past year. Regardless of survey year, cannabis dependence was more common than cannabis abuse, representing 66% of adults with a CUD. Across racial/ethnic groups, the prevalence of cannabis abuse and dependence remained stable during 2005-2013. In the total adult sample, the odds of weekly CU, monthly CU, and cannabis dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and mixed-race adults than whites. Among cannabis users, the odds of cannabis abuse and dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and Hispanics than whites. Logistic regression controlling for age, sex, education, and survey year indicated an increased trend in monthly CU and weekly CU in the total sample and among past-year cannabis users. Younger age, male sex, and low education were associated with increased odds of cannabis dependence. The large sample provides robust information that indicates a need for research to monitor CUD and identify culturally appropriate interventions especially for targeting minority populations. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

  1. Trends in population dose and examples of occupational dose reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, K.B.; Hughes, J.S.; McDonough, L.; Gelder, R.

    1989-01-01

    The recent review by NRPB of the exposure of the UK population shows the average annual dose to the population from all sources of radiation to be 2.5 mSv(1). Natural radiation gives rise to 87% of this with radon daughters accounting for the largest single contribution of 1.2 mSv. Medical irradiation remains the most significant contributor to the dose from man-made sources: the current estimate for all diagnostic uses is 0.3 mSv per annum. (author)

  2. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R Fieberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008, data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success, and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002. We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable

  3. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieberg, John R; Shertzer, Kyle W; Conn, Paul B; Noyce, Karen V; Garshelis, David L

    2010-08-12

    Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and

  4. Demographic trends in Claremont California’s street tree population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natalie S. van Doorn; E. Gregory McPherson

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify street tree population dynamics in the city of Claremont, CA. A repeated measures survey (2000 and 2014) based on a stratified random sampling approach across size classes and for the most abundant 21 species was analyzed to calculate removal, growth, and replacement planting rates. Demographic rates were estimated using a...

  5. World population, world health and security: 20th century trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashford, A

    2008-03-01

    The connection between infectious disease control and national security is now firmly entrenched. This article takes a historical look at another security issue once prominent in debate on foreign policy and international relations, but now more or less absent: overpopulation. It explores the nature of the debate on population as a security question, and its complicated historical relation to the development of world health.

  6. Population trends and management opportunities for neotropical migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler S. Robbins; John. R. Sauer; Bruce G. Peterjohn

    1993-01-01

    The Breeding Bird Survey shows that certain Neotropical migrant songbird populations have been declining over the past 26 years. Among them are forest birds that require extensive forest on the breeding grounds and also forested habitats on tropical wintering grounds. Other species have shown significant declines only since the early 1980's. Birds with broader...

  7. Prescription Monitoring Program Trends Among Individuals Arrested in Maine for Trafficking Prescription Drugs in 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Kenneth; Nichols, Stephanie D; Holt, Christina; Ochs, Leslie; Cattabriga, Gary; Tu, Chunhao

    2016-06-01

    To evaluate controlled substance prescribing trends available in the Maine Prescription Monitoring Program (PMP) among individuals arrested for prescription drug "trafficking." The demographic characteristics of the individuals who had matching prescription records in the PMP within 90 days of the arrest were identified. A population-based, retrospective cohort study using data from the Maine Diversion Alert Program (DAP) and the Maine PMP. The study population consisted of persons arrested for trafficking prescription drugs in Maine during the 2014 calendar year from January 1 to December 31. There were 594 trafficking arrests reported by the Maine DAP in 2014. The study population consisted of the 235 persons (40%) with arrests involving controlled prescription medications. The mean age of these persons was 33 years (range 18-77 yrs), and 156 (66%) were male. Arrests involved 154 prescription opioids (65%), seven stimulants (3%), seven benzodiazepines (3%), and 77 unspecified controlled prescription drugs (33%). A minority of individuals (n=57, 24%) had a prescription record in the PMP that matched the substance involved in the arrest. Only one person with matching PMP and arrest records utilized ≥ 5 prescribers, while none used ≥ 5 pharmacies within 90 days before the arrest. Payment methods for matching prescriptions were commercial insurance (n=28, 49%), Medicaid (n=19, 33%), Medicare (n=5, 9%), and cash (n=5, 9%). The majority (76%) of persons arrested for prescription drug trafficking did not have PMP records and did not directly obtain the diverted medication from a licensed pharmacy. Traditional red flags, like cash payment and using multiple prescribers or pharmacies, were uncommon. Therefore, arrest records for diversion and PMPs are distinct and complementary tools for identifying individuals at risk for substance misuse. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

  8. Recent trends in the condition monitoring of transformers theory, implementation and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakravorti, Sivaji; Chatterjee, Biswendu

    2013-01-01

    Recent Trends in the Condition Monitoring of Transformers reflects the current interest in replacing traditional techniques used in power transformer condition monitoring with non-invasive measures such as polarization/depolarization current measurement, recovery voltage measurement, frequency domain spectroscopy and frequency response analysis. The book stresses the importance of scrutinizing the condition of transformer insulation which may fail under present day conditions of intensive use with the resulting degradation of dielectric properties causing functional failure of the transformer.

  9. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Research in wildlife conservation and management often affects decisions made by managers. Improving understanding through applied research is key to advancing the ability to manage birds and other organism sefficiently. Indeed, many papers from EURING 2003 and previous EURING meetings describe research on problems of pressing management concern. In this session, we focus on a subset of studies in which modeling and statistical estimation is explicitly connected to management decision-making. In these decision–centric studies, data are gathered and models are constructed with the explicit intention of using the resulting information to inform decisions about conservation. Whereas ecological models often produce information of value to decision makers, decision models explicitly include two additional features. First, management options are modeled via decision variables that link to system attributes that are directly responsive to management actions, such as harvest and habitat management. Second, certain outcomes are assigned value, via an objective or utility function. Both of these features involve factors beyond the usual consideration of ecological modeling; the first implies the presence of one or more “decision makers”, and the second characterizes the societal preferences of each possible outcome resulting from a prospective decision. Our plenary paper, by Tim Haas (Haas, 2004, ventures the furthest into the realm of human behavior and societal processes by modeling the political context for conservation of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus in Africa. Haas shows that scientific information (e.g., population monitoring and population viability analyses reaches decision makers through multiple pathways, each of which can modify or reinterpret the information signal. A predictive understanding of the country’s political as well as ecological processes is essential. Hass uses a system of interacting ecological and political

  10. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  11. Mobile Air Monitoring Data Processing Strategies and Effects on Spatial Air Pollution Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    The collection of real-time air quality measurements while in motion (i.e., mobile monitoring) is currently conducted worldwide to evaluate in situ emissions, local air quality trends, and air pollutant exposure. This measurement strategy pushes the limits of traditional data an...

  12. American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

    2014-01-01

    Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

  13. Monitoring population density and fluctuations of Anisandrus dispar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bark and ambrosia beetles consist of two main ecological groups; bark beetles settle in the phloem, whereas ambrosia beetles bore in the xylem (sapwood). The latter are very detrimental ... in Samsun province. Key words: Hazelnut, population monitoring, Anisandrus dispar, Xyleborinus saxesenii, red winged sticky traps.

  14. Overview of national bird population monitoring programs and databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory S. Butcher; Bruce Peterjohn; C. John Ralph

    1993-01-01

    A number of programs have been set up to monitor populations of nongame migratory birds. We review these programs and their purposes and provide information on obtaining data or results from these programs. In addition, we review recommendations for improving these programs.

  15. How much effort is enough? The power of citizen science to monitor trends in coastal cetacean species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.B. Embling

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citizen scientists provide a cost-effective means of carrying out broad scale, long-term monitoring of the environment while fostering earth stewardship. In this study we investigate how much effort is required by citizen scientists to detect trends in the occurrence of a protected population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus. We analyse the WDC citizen science shore-based data collected over nine years (2005–2013 between April to October from within and in the vicinity of a Special Area of Conservation (SAC for bottlenose dolphins in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Watches comprised a continuous 10 minute scan of the survey area in an hour. During peak season, around 5 watches per day were required to detect annual or between-site trends of 50% in dolphin occurrence in locations where dolphins were sighted reliably (0.1 sightings per hour. Less effort was required at higher sightings rates, and it was not possible to statistically detect trends of <30%. This study highlights the importance of power analysis in designing citizen science programmes and demonstrates their effectiveness in carrying out long term shore-based monitoring of coastal cetacean species, providing a cost-effective early warning system for changes in the marine environment.

  16. Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

  17. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  18. Institutional point-of-care glucometer identifies population trends in blood glucose associated with war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boaz, Mona; Matas, Zipora; Chaimy, Tova; Landau, Zohar; Bar Dayan, Yosefa; Berlovitz, Yitzhak; Wainstein, Julio

    2013-11-01

    Acute physiological stress has been shown to impair glucose homeostasis. War is a period of acute psychological stress, and its effect on glucose control is unknown. In this study random point-of-care (POC) glucose levels were measured using an automated, institutional glucometer in hospitalized adult patients prior to versus during the Israeli Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012). Random POC glucose values measured with the institutional blood glucose monitoring system were obtained 1 week prior to the Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012) and compared with values to those obtained during the first 4 days of the war (November 14-17, 2012). In total, 3,573 POC glucose measures were included: 1,865 during the pre-war period and 1,708 during the campaign. POC glucose measures were significantly higher during the war compared with the week preceding the war: 9.7±4.7 versus 9.3±4.2 mmol/L (P=0.02). In a general linear model, period (pre-war vs. during war) persisted as a significant predictor of POC glucose even after controlling for age, sex, and department type (internal medicine vs. surgical). Acute stress, such as a wartime situation, is associated with a significant increase in random blood glucose values in a population of hospitalized adults. Long-term follow-up of the individuals hospitalized during these two periods can reveal differences in morbidity and mortality trends.

  19. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  20. Camera Traps on Wildlife Crossing Structures as a Tool in Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) Management - Five-Years Monitoring of Wolf Abundance Trends in Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šver, Lidija; Bielen, Ana; Križan, Josip; Gužvica, Goran

    2016-01-01

    The conservation of gray wolf (Canis lupus) and its coexistence with humans presents a challenge and requires continuous monitoring and management efforts. One of the non-invasive methods that produces high-quality wolf monitoring datasets is camera trapping. We present a novel monitoring approach where camera traps are positioned on wildlife crossing structures that channel the animals, thereby increasing trapping success and increasing the cost-efficiency of the method. In this way we have followed abundance trends of five wolf packs whose home ranges are intersected by a motorway which spans throughout the wolf distribution range in Croatia. During the five-year monitoring of six green bridges we have recorded 28 250 camera-events, 132 with wolves. Four viaducts were monitored for two years, recording 4914 camera-events, 185 with wolves. We have detected a negative abundance trend of the monitored Croatian wolf packs since 2011, especially severe in the northern part of the study area. Further, we have pinpointed the legal cull as probable major negative influence on the wolf pack abundance trends (linear regression, r2 > 0.75, P Croatia until there is more data proving population stability. In conclusion, quantitative methods, such as the one presented here, should be used as much as possible when assessing wolf abundance trends.

  1. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  2. Indicator Species Population Monitoring in Antarctica with Uav

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmarz, A.; Korczak-Abshire, M.; Storvold, R.; Rodzewicz, M.; Kędzierska, I.

    2015-08-01

    A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km) were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 - 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance) less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  3. INDICATOR SPECIES POPULATION MONITORING IN ANTARCTICA WITH UAV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zmarz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 – 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  4. Is it appropriate to composite fish samples for mercury trend monitoring and consumption advisories?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Nilima; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Drouillard, Ken G; Arhonditsis, George B; Petro, Steve

    2016-03-01

    Monitoring mercury levels in fish can be costly because variation by space, time, and fish type/size needs to be captured. Here, we explored if compositing fish samples to decrease analytical costs would reduce the effectiveness of the monitoring objectives. Six compositing methods were evaluated by applying them to an existing extensive dataset, and examining their performance in reproducing the fish consumption advisories and temporal trends. The methods resulted in varying amount (average 34-72%) of reductions in samples, but all (except one) reproduced advisories very well (96-97% of the advisories did not change or were one category more restrictive compared to analysis of individual samples). Similarly, the methods performed reasonably well in recreating temporal trends, especially when longer-term and frequent measurements were considered. The results indicate that compositing samples within 5cm fish size bins or retaining the largest/smallest individuals and compositing in-between samples in batches of 5 with decreasing fish size would be the best approaches. Based on the literature, the findings from this study are applicable to fillet, muscle plug and whole fish mercury monitoring studies. The compositing methods may also be suitable for monitoring Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in fish. Overall, compositing fish samples for mercury monitoring could result in a substantial savings (approximately 60% of the analytical cost) and should be considered in fish mercury monitoring, especially in long-term programs or when study cost is a concern. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Jennifer R

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. Methods We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Results Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000 in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000 in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000 to 1,465 (15.8/1000 neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000 compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000. The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. Conclusions The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  6. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Badgery-Parker, Tim; Algert, Charles S; Bowen, Jennifer R; Nassar, Natasha

    2011-10-17

    Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32 weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW) Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation) between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000) in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000) in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000) to 1,465 (15.8/1000) neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000) compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000). The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  7. Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andrew; Moreno-Mardinan, Max; Ryan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in

  8. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  9. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Quintero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats.Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions.Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  10. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  11. Non-invasive genetic censusing and monitoring of primate populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arandjelovic, Mimi; Vigilant, Linda

    2018-03-01

    Knowing the density or abundance of primate populations is essential for their conservation management and contextualizing socio-demographic and behavioral observations. When direct counts of animals are not possible, genetic analysis of non-invasive samples collected from wildlife populations allows estimates of population size with higher accuracy and precision than is possible using indirect signs. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional indirect survey methods, prolonged or periodic genetic sampling across months or years enables inference of group membership, movement, dynamics, and some kin relationships. Data may also be used to estimate sex ratios, sex differences in dispersal distances, and detect gene flow among locations. Recent advances in capture-recapture models have further improved the precision of population estimates derived from non-invasive samples. Simulations using these methods have shown that the confidence interval of point estimates includes the true population size when assumptions of the models are met, and therefore this range of population size minima and maxima should be emphasized in population monitoring studies. Innovations such as the use of sniffer dogs or anti-poaching patrols for sample collection are important to ensure adequate sampling, and the expected development of efficient and cost-effective genotyping by sequencing methods for DNAs derived from non-invasive samples will automate and speed analyses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2016-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi- State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  13. Abundance, distribution and population trends of Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) in Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zisadza-Gandiwa, P.; Gandiwa, E.; Jakarasi, J.; Westhuizen, van der H.; Muvengwi, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) is an iconic or keystone species in many aquatic ecosystems. In order to understand the abundance, distribution, and population trends of Nile crocodiles in Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, we carried out 4 annual aerial surveys, using

  14. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

    2015-01-01

    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  15. Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Al-Salem

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

  16. Trends of forest area and population and the impact of population on forest area per hectare in Serbia without APS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Nenad

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Socio-economic changes throughout history have shaped the attitude towards the forest and most significant ones are changes in terms of population. Over the centuries population and population density have had a significant impact on deforestation and the reduction of forest areas. Therefore, it is important to check what kind of trends are concerned and how population growth affects forest areas, forest cover and forest area per capita. These elements are important for assessing the direction, intensity of activity and the degree of success in the implementation of all forest policy measures in Serbia. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Istraživanja klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje, podprojekat, br. 43007/16-III: Socio-ekonomski razvoj, ublažavanje i adaptacija na klimatske promene

  17. Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area. Methods We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses. Results The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000. Conclusions We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area. PMID:23758972

  18. Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

  19. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  20. Use Of Biodegradation Ratios In Monitoring Trend Of Biostimulated Biodegradation In Crude Oil Polluted Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okorondu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with biodegradation experiment on soil contaminated with crude oil. The soil sample sets A BC D E F G were amended with inorganic fertilizer to enhance microbial growth and hydrocarbon degradation moisture content of some of the sets were as well varied. Biodegradation ratios nC17Pr nC18Ph and nC17nC18PrPh were used to monitor biodegradation of soil sets A BC D E F G for a period of 180. The soil samples were each contaminated with the same amount of crude oil and exposed to specific substrate treatment regarding the amount of nutrients and water content over the same period of time. The trend in biodegradation of the different soil sample sets shows that biodegradation ratio nC17nC18PrPh was more reflective of and explains the biodegradation trend in all the sample sets throughout the period of the experiment hence a better parameter ratio for monitoring trend of biostimulated biodegradation. The order of preference of the biodegradation ratios is expressed as nC18Ph nC17Pr nC17nC18 PrPh. This can be a relevant support tool when designing bioremediation plan on field.

  1. Sample size for monitoring sirex populations and their natural enemies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete do Rocio Chiarello Penteado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The woodwasp Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae was introduced in Brazil in 1988 and became the main pest in pine plantations. It has spread to about 1.000.000 ha, at different population levels, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Control is done mainly by using a nematode, Deladenus siricidicola Bedding (Nematoda: Neothylenchidae. The evaluation of the efficiency of natural enemies has been difficult because there are no appropriate sampling systems. This study tested a hierarchical sampling system to define the sample size to monitor the S. noctilio population and the efficiency of their natural enemies, which was found to be perfectly adequate.

  2. A Review of Player Monitoring Approaches in Basketball: Current Trends and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jordan L; Scanlan, Aaron T; Stanton, Robert

    2017-07-01

    Fox, JL, Scanlan, AT, and Stanton, R. A review of player monitoring approaches in basketball: current trends and future directions. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 2021-2029, 2017-Effective monitoring of players in team sports such as basketball requires an understanding of the external demands and internal responses, as they relate to training phases and competition. Monitoring of external demands and internal responses allows coaching staff to determine the dose-response associated with the imposed training load (TL), and subsequently, if players are adequately prepared for competition. This review discusses measures reported in the literature for monitoring the external demands and internal responses of basketball players during training and competition. The external demands of training and competition were primarily monitored using time-motion analysis, with limited use of microtechnology being reported. Internal responses during training were typically measured using hematological markers, heart rate, various TL models, and perceptual responses such as rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Heart rate was the most commonly reported indicator of internal responses during competition with limited reporting of hematological markers or RPE. These findings show a large discrepancy between the reporting of external and internal measures and training and competition demands. Microsensors, however, may be a practical and convenient method of player monitoring in basketball to overcome the limitations associated with current approaches while allowing for external demands and internal responses to be recorded simultaneously. The triaxial accelerometers of microsensors seem well suited for basketball and warrant validation to definitively determine their place in the monitoring of basketball players. Coaching staff should make use of this technology by tracking individual player responses across the annual plan and using real-time monitoring to minimize factors such as fatigue

  3. Results of the of wintering bird populations monitoring in the region of Nizhnee Prisurye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina S. Preobrazhenskaya

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The monitoring of wintering bird populations in the region of Nizhnee Prisurie on the territory of Chuvash Republic was carried out in 1989–1990. From 2000 censuses were conducted on the territory of the nature reserve "Prisurskiy" and the National Park "Chavash Varmane". These regular censuses were called project "Parus" by the Menzbir Ornithological Society of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The last ten years they were also included in the overall-Russian campaign "Euro-Asian Christmas Bird Counts" project from the Russian Birds Conservation Union. During these 20 years there were 44 bird species registered in the studied area. Eleven of them are marked by single or rare. Four species - Regulus regulus, Aegithalos caudatus, Spinus spinus and Carduelis carduelis – increased their abundance from 1990 till the middle 2000-s and then – decreased. Dendrocopos minor showed the opposite trend. The abundance of 13 species in the 1990-s was higher, sometimes significantly, than in the 2000s and 2010s. The reason may be searched in the differences between the censuses areas in 1990s and 2000s. However, the decreasing of the population densities is typical for other forest species, not only in Nizhnee Prisurie, but also in other model territories. In general, during the last 25 years we can see negative trends in the population dynamics of wintering bird species within the East European plain.

  4. Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimates of population size are often crucial to determining status and planning recovery of endangered species. The ability to detect trends in survival and population size over time enables conservation managers to make effective decisions for species and refuge management. During 2004–2007, the translocated population of endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis; also Laysan Duck) was fitted with radio transmitters providing known (―gold standard‖) measures of survival and reproduction. However, as the population grew, statistically rigorous monitoring protocols were needed that were less labor intensive than radio telemetry. A population die-off and alarmingly high number of carcasses (181) were recorded during a botulism epizootic in August–October 2008, which further reinforced the need for effective monitoring protocols since this endangered species is vulnerable to catastrophic population declines. In fall 2008, we initiated a pilot study using standardized surveys with uniquely marked birds to monitor abundance and estimate the population growth rate of the reintroduced Laysan Teal. Since few birds carried marks (leg bands) after the 2008 botulism die-off (only about 15% of the population), and standardized surveys were not yet implemented, the magnitude of the die-off on the population size was unknown.

  5. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  6. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  7. Trends in Health Information-Seeking Behaviour in the U.S. Foreign-Born Population Based on the Health Information National Trends Survey, 2005-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, JungWon; Huang, Hong; Soojung Kim

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This study investigated trends in the health information-seeking behaviour of the U.S. foreign-born population over a ten-year period and examined whether health information disparities between this population and native-born citizens have decreased. Method: Data were collected from six iterations of the Health Information National…

  8. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  9. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  10. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  12. Status and trends of solid state track detector use in radiation protection monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerschel, B.

    1980-01-01

    The characteristic properties of solid state track detectors allow them to be used for determining the radiation fields of charged and uncharged particles and, consequently, for solving some problems involved in radiation protection monitoring. Aptitude of various detector materials is investigated on the basis of the track formation mechanism taking into account the properties of the particles to be detected. Use of these detectors in radiation protection monitoring presumes appropriate methods of intensifying the latent tracks, which are discussed as a function of various physical parameters. Readout methods of solid state track detectors are based on variations in detector properties determined by number and size of particle tracks in the detector. The choice of a special readout method, among other things, depends on the purpose, detector material, and pretreatment of the detectors. The most prospective methods are described and investigated with respect to their possible use in various fields of radiation protection monitoring. The trends of development of the application of solid state track detectors in radiation protection monitoring are discussed, using some typical applications as examples. (author)

  13. Acid emissions monitoring needs in ceramic tile industry: challenges derived from new policy trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celades, Irina; Gomar, Salvador; Romero, Fernando; Chauhan, Amisha; Delpech, Bertrand; Jouhara, Hussam

    2017-11-01

    The emission of acid compounds during the manufacture of ceramic tiles is strongly related to the presence of precursors in the raw materials and/or fuels used, with some exceptions such as the production of thermal NOX. The stages with the potential to produce significant emissions of these compounds have been identified as the suspension spray drying and tile firing stages. The monitoring of emission levels of acid pollutants in these stages has turned in a great importance issue from a regulatory and industrial aspect. The DREAM project (https://www.spire2030.eu/dream) will tackle the regulation of acidic emissions focusing in the firing stage. The initial stages of the project have made it possible to identify the design requirements for the monitoring system. This will allow the control of acid pollutants emissions and other key parameters such as pressure, flow, temperature and humidity. One of the tasks developed has been the review and compilation of current emissions monitoring systems detailing technical specifications such as: position (in situ or extractive), measurement principle and frequency. The future policy trends in air pollution are encouraging the continuous monitoring across the European industry. The present document assesses the advantages regarding environmental impact control, highlighting the main challenges for the ceramic tile industry.

  14. THE MAIN TRENDS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ROSPOTREBNADZOR IN THE LENINGRAD REGION AND THE GOVERNMENT OF LENINGRAD REGION IN THE FIELD OF POPULATION RADIATION PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbanev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the main interaction trends of the Administration of Rospotrebnadzor in the Leningrad Region and the Government of Leningrad Region regarding issues of regional radiation protection. It reports on comprehensive measures devoted to the limitation of the population exposure from natural irradiation sources, monitoring of territories which suffered from Chernobyl NPP accident and monitoring of the environmental impact of unauthorized dumps and solid municipal waste sites in the Leningrad Region. It presents the basic issues of medical exposure limitation in the Leningrad Region and measures for their solving.

  15. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  16. A wireless sensor network for urban traffic characterization and trend monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Lozano, J J; Martín-Guzmán, Miguel; Martín-Ávila, Juan; García-Cerezo, A

    2015-10-15

    Sustainable mobility requires a better management of the available infrastructure resources. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to obtain accurate data about road usage, in particular in urban areas. Although a variety of sensor alternates for urban traffic exist, they usually require extensive investments in the form of construction works for installation, processing means, etc. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are an alternative to acquire urban traffic data, allowing for flexible, easy deployment. Together with the use of the appropriate sensors, like Bluetooth identification, and associate processing, WSN can provide the means to obtain in real time data like the origin-destination matrix, a key tool for trend monitoring which previously required weeks or months to be completed. This paper presents a system based on WSN designed to characterize urban traffic, particularly traffic trend monitoring through the calculation of the origin-destination matrix in real time by using Bluetooth identification. Additional sensors are also available integrated in different types of nodes. Experiments in real conditions have been performed, both for separate sensors (Bluetooth, ultrasound and laser), and for the whole system, showing the feasibility of this approach.

  17. Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As the demand for wind energy continues to grow at exponential rates, reducing operation and maintenance (OM costs and improving reliability have become top priorities in wind turbine (WT maintenance strategies. In addition to the development of more highly evolved WT designs intended to improve availability, the application of reliable and cost-effective condition-monitoring (CM techniques offers an efficient approach to achieve this goal. This paper provides a general review and classification of wind turbine condition monitoring (WTCM methods and techniques with a focus on trends and future challenges. After highlighting the relevant CM, diagnosis, and maintenance analysis, this work outlines the relationship between these concepts and related theories, and examines new trends and future challenges in the WTCM industry. Interesting insights from this research are used to point out strengths and weaknesses in today’s WTCM industry and define research priorities needed for the industry to meet the challenges in wind industry technological evolution and market growth.

  18. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  19. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

  20. Determining population trends and conservation status of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puigcerver, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the conservation status and population trends of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix from 1900 to the present. Data are sometimes contradictory with regard to the status of this species as it has some features that make it difficult to produce reliable population estimates. Recent data clearly suggest, either at a local scale or at a trans–national scale, that the Atlantic common quail populations have remained stable in the last two decades, and that restocking practices with farm–reared quails (hybrids with the Japanese quail, Coturnix japonica do not affect our estimates. The complex movement patterns showed by this species require special attention. Analysis of ring recoveries can give important information, especially about the nomadic movement of quails in search of suitable habitats after the destruction of winter cereal crops due to harvesting. Thus, when developing a breeding distribution model for this species, continuously updated information on seasonal habitat and weather must be included for optimal prediction. Including fortnightly data of vegetation indices in distribution models, for example, has shown good results. Obtaining reliable predictions about changes in species distribution and movements during the breeding period could provide useful knowledge about the conservation status and population trends and would help in the design of future management measures.

  1. Agricultural Set-aside Programs and Grassland Birds: Insights from Broad-scale Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Riffell

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP is a voluntary set-aside program in the United States designed to amelioratesoil erosion, control crop overproduction, enhance water quality, and provide wildlife habitat by replacing crops with other forms of land cover. Because CRP includes primarily grass habitats, it has great potential to benefitdeclining North American grassland bird populations. We looked at the change in national and state population trends of grassland birds and related changes to cover-specific CRP variables (previous research grouped all CRP practices. Changes in national trends after the initiation of the CRP were inconclusive, but we observed signficant bird-CRP relations at the state level. Most bird-CRP relations were positive, except for some species associated with habitats that CRP replaced. Practice- and configuration-specific CRP variables were related to grassland bird trends, rather than a generic measure of all CRP types combined. Considering all CRP land as a single, distinct habitat type may obscure actual relations between birds and set-aside characteristics. Understanding and predictingthe effects of set-aside programs (like CRP or agri-environment schemes on grassland birds is complex and difficult. Because available broad-scale datasets are less than adequate, studies should be conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

  2. Trends in Snag Populations in Drought-Stressed Mixed-Conifer and Ponderosa Pine Forests (1997–2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph L. Ganey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density increased by 75 and 90% in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, respectively, over this time period. Increased snag density was driven primarily by a large pulse in drought-mediated tree mortality from 2002 to 2007, following a smaller pulse from 1997 to 2002. Decay-class composition and size-class composition of snag populations changed in both forest types, and species composition changed in mixed-conifer forest. Increases in snag abundance may benefit some species of native wildlife in the short-term by providing increased foraging and nesting resources, but these increases may be unsustainable in the long term. Observed changes in snag recruitment and fall rates during the study illustrate the difficulty involved in modeling dynamics of those populations in an era of climate change and changing land management practices.

  3. Groundwater resources monitoring and population displacement in northern Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalikakis, K.; Hammache, Y.; Nawa, A.; Slinski, K.; Petropoulos, G.; Muteesasira, A.

    2009-04-01

    Northern Uganda has been devastated by more than 20 years of open conflict by the LRA (Lord's Resistance Army) and the Government of Uganda. This war has been marked by extreme violence against civilians, who had been gathered in protected IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps. At the height of the displacement in 2007, the UN office for coordination of humanitarian affairs, estimated that nearly 2.5 million people were interned into approximately 220 camps throughout Northern Uganda. With the improved security since mid-2006, the people displaced by the conflict in Northern Uganda started to move out of the overcrowded camps and return either to their villages/parishes of origin or to resettlement/transit sites. However, basic water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure in the return areas or any new settlements sites are minimal. People returning to their villages of origin encounter a situation where in many cases there is no access to safe water. Since 1998 ACF (Action Against Hunger, part of the Action Contre la Faim International Network) activities have been concentrated in the Acholi and Lango regions of Northern Uganda. ACF's WASH (Water, sanitation and hygiene) department interventions concern sanitation infrastructure, hygiene education and promotion as well as water points implementation. To ensure safe water access, actions are focused in borehole construction and traditional spring rehabilitation, also called "protected" springs. These activities follow the guidelines as set forth by the international WASH cluster, led by UNICEF. A three year project (2008-2010) is being implemented by ACF, to monitor the available groundwater resources in Northern Uganda. The main objectives are: 1. to monitor the groundwater quality from existing water points during different hydrological seasons, 2. to identify, if any, potential risks of contamination from population concentrations and displacement, lack of basic infrastructure and land use, and finally 3. to

  4. Increasing trend of wearables and multimodal interface for human activity monitoring: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Preeti; Mathew, Lini; Syal, Poonam

    2017-04-15

    Activity recognition technology is one of the most important technologies for life-logging and for the care of elderly persons. Elderly people prefer to live in their own houses, within their own locality. If, they are capable to do so, several benefits can follow in terms of society and economy. However, living alone may have high risks. Wearable sensors have been developed to overcome these risks and these sensors are supposed to be ready for medical uses. It can help in monitoring the wellness of elderly persons living alone by unobtrusively monitoring their daily activities. The study aims to review the increasing trends of wearable devices and need of multimodal recognition for continuous or discontinuous monitoring of human activity, biological signals such as Electroencephalogram (EEG), Electrooculogram (EOG), Electromyogram (EMG), Electrocardiogram (ECG) and parameters along with other symptoms. This can provide necessary assistance in times of ominous need, which is crucial for the advancement of disease-diagnosis and treatment. Shared control architecture with multimodal interface can be used for application in more complex environment where more number of commands is to be used to control with better results in terms of controlling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

  6. Childhood obesity trends from primary care electronic health records in England between 1994 and 2013: population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Jaarsveld, Cornelia H M; Gulliford, Martin C

    2015-03-01

    This study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2-15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades. Cohort study of primary care electronic health records. 375 general practices in England that contribute to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individual participants were sampled if they were aged between 2 and 15 years during the period 1994-2013 and had one or more records of body mass index (BMI). Prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was defined as a BMI equal to or greater than the 85th centile of the 1990 UK reference population. Data were analysed for 370 544 children with 507 483 BMI records. From 1994 to 2003, the odds of overweight and obesity increased by 8.1% per year (95% CI 7.2% to 8.9%) compared with 0.4% (-0.2% to 1.1%) from 2004 to 2013. Trends were similar for boys and girls, but differed by age groups, with prevalence stabilising in 2004 to 2013 in the younger (2-10 year) but not older (11-15 year) age group, where rates continued to increase. Primary care electronic health records in England may provide a valuable resource for monitoring obesity trends. More than a third of UK children are overweight or obese, but the prevalence of overweight and obesity may have stabilised between 2004 and 2013. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  7. Epidemiology and trends for Caesarean section births in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Jonathan M

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Caesarean section (CS rates around the world have been increasing and in Australia have reached 30% of all births. Robson's Ten-Group Classification System (10-group classification provides a clinically relevant classification of CS rates that provides a useful basis for international comparisons and trend analyses. This study aimed to investigate trends in CS rates in New South Wales (NSW, including trends in the components of the 10-group classification. Methods We undertook a cross-sectional study using data from the Midwives Data Collection, a state-wide surveillance system that monitors patterns of pregnancy care, services and pregnancy outcomes in New South Wales, Australia. The study population included all women giving birth between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2008. Descriptive statistics are presented including age-standardised CS rates, annual percentage change as well as regression analyses. Results From 1998 to 2008 the CS rate in NSW increased from 19.1 to 29.5 per 100 births. There was a significant average annual increase in primary 4.3% (95%CI 3.0-5.7% and repeat 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7% CS rates from 1998 to 2008. After adjusting for maternal and pregnancy factors, the increase in CS delivery over time was maintained. When examining CS rates classified according to the 10-group classification, the greatest contributors to the overall CS rate and the largest annual increases occurred among nulliparae at term having elective CS and multipara having elective repeat CS. Conclusions Given that the increased CS rate cannot be explained by known and collected maternal or pregnancy characteristics, the increase may be related to differences in clinical decision making or maternal request. Future efforts to reduce the overall CS rate should be focussed on reducing the primary CS rate.

  8. Recent trends in water analysis triggering future monitoring of organic micropollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Torsten C

    2018-03-21

    Water analysis has been an important area since the beginning of analytical chemistry. The focus though has shifted substantially: from minerals and the main constituents of water in the time of Carl Remigius Fresenius to a multitude of, in particular, organic compounds at concentrations down to the sub-nanogram per liter level nowadays. This was possible only because of numerous innovations in instrumentation in recent decades, drivers of which are briefly discussed. In addition to the high demands on sensitivity, high throughput by automation and short analysis times are major requirements. In this article, some recent developments in the chemical analysis of organic micropollutants (OMPs) are presented. These include the analysis of priority pollutants in whole water samples, extension of the analytical window, in particular to encompass highly polar compounds, the trend toward more than one separation dimension before mass spectrometric detection, and ways of coping with unknown analytes by suspect and nontarget screening approaches involving high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, beyond gathering reliable concentration data for many OMPs, the question of the relevance of such data for the aquatic system under scrutiny is becoming ever more important. To that end, effect-based analytics can be used and may become part of future routine monitoring, mostly with a focus on adverse effects of OMPs in specific test systems mimicking environmental impacts. Despite advances in the field of water analysis in recent years, there are still many challenges for further analytical research. Graphical abstract Recent trends in water analysis of organic micropollutants that open new opportunities in future water monitoring. HRMS high-resolution mass spectrometry, PMOC persistent mobile organic compounds.

  9. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  10. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.

    2001-01-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  11. An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

  12. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  14. Recent Trends in Veteran Unemployment as Measured in the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Savych, Bogdan; Klerman, Jacob A; Loughran, David S

    2008-01-01

    This technical report explores recent trends in the unemployment of recent veterans as estimated from two nationally representative surveys, the Current Population Survey "CPS" and the American Community Survey "ACS...

  15. Towards a European Framework to Monitor Infectious Diseases among Migrant Populations: Design and Applicability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Riccardo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available There are limitations in our capacity to interpret point estimates and trends of infectious diseases occurring among diverse migrant populations living in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The aim of this study was to design a data collection framework that could capture information on factors associated with increased risk to infectious diseases in migrant populations in the EU/EEA. The authors defined factors associated with increased risk according to a multi-dimensional framework and performed a systematic literature review in order to identify whether those factors well reflected the reported risk factors for infectious disease in these populations. Following this, the feasibility of applying this framework to relevant available EU/EEA data sources was assessed. The proposed multidimensional framework is well suited to capture the complexity and concurrence of these risk factors and in principle applicable in the EU/EEA. The authors conclude that adopting a multi-dimensional framework to monitor infectious diseases could favor the disaggregated collection and analysis of migrant health data.

  16. Monitoring population status of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska: options and considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esslinger, George G.; Esler, Daniel N.; Howlin, S.; Starcevich, L.A.

    2015-06-25

    After many decades of absence from southeast Alaska, sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are recolonizing parts of their former range, including Glacier Bay, Alaska. Sea otters are well known for structuring nearshore ecosystems and causing community-level changes such as increases in kelp abundance and changes in the size and number of other consumers. Monitoring population status of sea otters in Glacier Bay will help park researchers and managers understand and interpret sea otter-induced ecosystem changes relative to other sources of variation, including potential human-induced impacts such as ocean acidification, vessel disturbance, and oil spills. This report was prepared for the National Park Service (NPS), Southeast Alaska Inventory and Monitoring Network following a request for evaluation of options for monitoring sea otter population status in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. To meet this request, we provide a detailed consideration of the primary method of assessment of abundance and distribution, aerial surveys, including analyses of power to detect interannual trends and designs to reduce variation around annual abundance estimates. We also describe two alternate techniques for evaluating sea otter population status—(1) quantifying sea otter diets and energy intake rates, and (2) detecting change in ages at death. In addition, we provide a brief section on directed research to identify studies that would further our understanding of sea otter population dynamics and effects on the Glacier Bay ecosystem, and provide context for interpreting results of monitoring activities.

  17. Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.; Bunnell, David B.

    2009-01-01

    Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We also provide indices for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references.For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance (W), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P-value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated

  18. Trends in adherence to recommended cancer screening: The US population and working cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainya C. Clarke

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past decade the United States has seen a decrease in advanced cancer diagnoses. There has also been an increase in the number of cancer survivors returning to work. Cancer screening behaviors among survivors may play an important role in their return-to-work process. Adherence to a post-treatment cancer screening protocol increases early detection of secondary tumors and reduces potentially limiting side-effects. We compared screening trends among all cancer survivors, working survivors, and the general population over the last decade.Methods: Trends in adherence to recommended screening were analyzed by site-specific cancer. We used the Healthy People goals as a measure of desired adherence. We selected participants 18+ years from 1997 to 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS for years where detailed cancer screening information was available. Using the recommendations of the American Cancer Society as a guide, we assessed adherence to cancer screening across the decade. There were 174,393 participants. Analyses included 7,528 working cancer survivors representing 3.8 million US workers, and 119,374 adults representing more than 100 million working Americans with no cancer history.Results: The US population met the Healthy People 2010 goal for colorectal screening, but declined in all other recommended cancer screening. Cancer survivors met and maintained the HP2010 goal for all, except cervical cancer screening. Survivors had higher screening rates than the general population. Among survivors, white-collar and service occupations had higher screening rates than blue-collar survivors.Conclusions: Cancer survivors report higher screening rates than the general population. Nevertheless, national screening rates are lower than desired, and disparities exist by cancer history and occupation. Understanding existing disparities, and the impact of cancer screening on survivors is crucial as the number of working survivors

  19. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez, Francesca C.; Benson, Jody; Hanson, Stephanie; Mark, Carol; Wetovsky, Marvin A.

    2004-01-01

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  20. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Francesca C [Editor; Benson, Jody [Editor; Hanson, Stephanie [Editor; Mark, Carol [Editor; Wetovsky, Marvin A [Editor

    2004-09-21

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  1. Recent trends in monitoring radon and daughter products in Indian uranium mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, A.H.; Raghavayya, M.

    1977-01-01

    Uranium mining is of comparatively recent origin in India. In keeping with the ICRP (1959) and IAEA (1967) recommendations on the subject, the radiation practice in this country has been to monitor the mine air for radon. But the fact that radon daughter products are responsible for a major contribution to the radiation dose to the lungs and the comparative ease of correlating incidence of lung cancer with cumulative exposure to radon daughters (WLM), as demonstrated by epidemiologists, cannot be lost sight of. The results of a series of simultaneous measurements of radon, its decay products and their unattached fractions are presented. These measurements of radon have been carried out under different operational and passive conditions in mines. It has been observed that in the mine air, not only RaA but significant fractions of RaB and RaC too, exist in 'free state'. Wide variations have been observed in the unattached fractions with median values around 6% for RaA, 3% for RaB and 1% for RaC. The unattached daughter activities in the return air are maximum under passive conditions and show declining trend as the mining operations assume momentum causing increase in the aerosol concentrations. Relative merits of monitoring the mine air for radon and/or its decay products are also discussed

  2. Trending and accuracy of noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring in pediatric perioperative patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Mario; Schultz, Lindsay; Hossain, Monir; Moeller, Jennifer; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Gunter, Joel; Kurth, C Dean

    2014-10-01

    Rainbow Pulse CO-Oximetry technology (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) provides continuous and noninvasive measurement of arterial hemoglobin concentration (SpHb). We assessed the trending and accuracy of SpHb by this innovative monitoring compared with Hb concentration obtained with conventional laboratory techniques (Hb) in children undergoing surgical procedures with potential for substantial blood loss. Hb concentrations were recorded from Pulse CO-Oximetry and a conventional hematology analyzer. Regression analysis and 4-quadrant plot were used to evaluate the trending for changes in SpHb and Hb measurements (ΔSpHb and ΔHb). Bias, precision, and limits of agreement of SpHb and of in vivo adjusted SpHb (SpHb - first bias to HB) compared with Hb were calculated. One hundred fifty-eight SpHb-Hb data pairs and 105 delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) from 46 patients aged 2 months to 17 years with Hb ranging from 16.7 to 7.9 g/dL were collected. To evaluate trending, the delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) were plotted, which revealed a positive correlation (ΔSpHb = 0.022 + 0.76ΔHb) with correlation coefficient r = 0.76, 95% CI [confidence interval] = 0.57-0.86. The bias and precision of SpHb to Hb and in vivo adjusted SpHb were 0.4 ± 1.3 g/dL and 0.1 ± 1.2 g/dL, respectively; the limits of agreement were -2.0 to 3.2 g/dL before in vivo adjustment and -2.4 to 2.2 g/dL after in vivo adjustment (P value = 0.04). The mean percent bias (from the reference Hb concentration) decreased from 4.1% ± 11.9% to 0.7% ± 11.3% (P value = 0.01). No drift in bias over time was observed during the study procedure. Of patient demographic and physiological factors tested for correlation with the SpHb, only perfusion index at sensor site showed a weak correlation. The accuracy of SpHb in children with normal Hb and mild anemia is similar to that previously reported in adults and is independent of patient demographic and physiological states except for a weak correlation with perfusion index

  3. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  4. Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

    2017-08-10

    Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial

  5. The farming population in Ireland: mortality trends during the 'Celtic Tiger' years.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Smyth, Breda

    2012-03-21

    Background Although the Irish farming population is a significant occupational group, analysis of their mortality patterns is limited. This study compared mortality trends with other occupational groups and assessed the impact of socio-economic factors. Methods Population and mortality data (2000-06) were obtained to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) by cause of death and matched with socio-economic data. The extent to which variation in mortality was explained by variations in the socio-economic data was determined using multiple regression. Results Farmers and agricultural workers experienced the highest levels of mortality for all causes of death (2000-06). Farmers are 5.14 times more likely and agricultural workers are 7.35 times more likely to die from any cause of death than the lowest risk group. Circulatory disease is a significant cause of mortality among farmers [SMR = 215.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 201.83-229.98]. Other significant causes include cancers (SMR = 156.60, CI = 146.73-166.48) and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 149.69, CI = 135.44-163.93). Agricultural workers have similar mortality trends: circulatory disease (SMR = 226.27; CI = 192.45-260.08), cancers (SMR = 221.44; CI = 193.88-249.00), and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 353.90; CI = 302.48-405.32). From 2000 to 2006, SMRs increased incrementally. Multiple regression identified farm size and income poverty risk as predictors of mortality. Conclusion Irish farmers and agricultural workers have experienced a reversal of mortality trends compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Policies should target them as a high-risk group.

  6. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at

  7. Recent fertility and mortality trends among aboriginal and nonaboriginal populations of central Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, W R; Keenleyside, A; Ivakine, E

    1997-06-01

    We examine mortality and fertility patterns of aboriginal (primarily Evenki and Keto) and Russian (i.e., nonaboriginal) populations from the Baykit District of Central Siberia for the period 1982-1994. Mortality rates in the aboriginal population of Baykit are substantially greater than those observed in the Russians and are comparable to levels recently reported for other indigenous Siberian groups. Infant mortality rates average 48 per 1000 live births among Baykit aboriginals, three times greater than the Russians of the district (15 per 1000 births) and more than double the rates for Inuit and Indian populations of Canada. Similarly, crude death rates of the Baykit aboriginals are twice as high as those observed in either the Baykit Russians or the Canadian aboriginal populations (13 vs 6-7 deaths per 1000 individuals). Birth rates of the indigenous population of Baykit are higher than those of the Russians (33 vs. 15 births per 1000 individuals) but are comparable to those of Canadian aboriginal groups. Violence and accidents are the leading causes of adult male mortality in both ethnic groups, whereas circulatory diseases have emerged as the prime cause of death in women. The greater male mortality resulting from violence and accidents is a widely observed cross-cultural phenomenon. The emergence of circulatory diseases as a major mortality risk for women, however, appears to be linked to specific lifestyle changes associated with Soviet reorganization of indigenous Siberian societies. Marked declines in mortality and increases in fertility were observed in the Baykit aboriginal population during the mid to late 1980s with the government's implementation of anti-alcohol policies. The decline in mortality, however, was largely erased during the early 1990s, as the region became increasingly isolated and marginalized following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Demographic trends in the Baykit District suggest that because the indigenous groups have become more

  8. Dworshak Reservoir Kokanee Population Monitoring, Annual Report 2001.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiolie, Melo; Stark, Eric

    2003-03-01

    Onsite testing of strobe lights was conducted to determine if they repelled kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka away from the turbine intakes at Dworshak Dam. We tested a set of nine strobe lights flashing at a rate of 360 flashes/min placed near the intake of a 90 mW turbine. A split-beam echo sounder was used to determine the effect of strobe light operation on fish density (thought to be mostly kokanee) in front of the turbine intakes. On five nights between December 2001 and January 2002, fish density averaged 110 fish/ha when no lights were flashing. Mean density dropped to 13 fish/ha when the strobe lights were turned on during five additional nights of sampling. This 88% decline in density was significant at the P = 0.009 level of significance based on a paired Student's t test. There appeared to be no tendency for fish to habituate to the lights during the night. Test results indicate that a single set of nine lights may be sufficient to repel kokanee from a turbine intake during the night. We also used split-beam hydroacoustics to monitor the kokanee population in Dworshak Reservoir during 2001. Estimated abundance of kokanee has continued to increase since the spring of 1996 when high entrainment losses occurred. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 3,276,000 kokanee in Dworshak Reservoir in early July 2001. This included 2,069,000 age-0 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 16.4%), 801,000 age-1 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 17.8%), and 406,000 age-2 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 20.5%). Entrainment sampling was also conducted with split-beam hydroacoustics a minimum of one continuous 24 h period per month. The highest entrainment rates occurred at night with lower discharges and shallower intake depths. Fish movement patterns suggested that they swam 'at will' in front of the intakes and may have chosen to move into the turbine intakes. Based on monthly hydroacoustic sampling in the forebay, we found that kokanee density was low in July and August during a period of high

  9. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  10. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  11. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Banaee

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  12. Population trends of Rhinolophus affinis during the breeding and non-breeding season roosting at the Kota Gelanggi limestone complex, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sia, Ting Jin; Zubaid, Akbar; Foo, Ng Yong

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring population trends of bats in caves is difficult but is very important for their conservation. Their vulnerability to decline cannot be taken lightly and must be monitored for future management purposes especially in places open to the public. No studies have been done on bats roosting in caves at Kota Gelanggi and there are very few published studies of cave-dwelling bats in Malaysia. To fill this gap, a study on monitoring the population trends of Rhinolophus affinis was carried out in two caves namely, Gua Kepala Gajah and Gua Tongkat. This study was conducted from October 2013 until December 2014. The population size was estimated by direct visual counts and photographic methods during the day. The bats were caught by using mists net and harp traps. The reproductive condition of both female and male individuals was examined. The mean estimated population size for R. affinis in Gua Kepala Gajah was 221 individuals and 464 in Gua Tongkat. The population size of R. affinis showed an obvious decline during the breeding season and increased gradually after that for both caves. Pregnant R. affinis were found in April 2014 and lactating in June 2014 in both caves. It is important to know the breeding and non-breeding season of bats in both caves and their roosting behaviour in order to protect the bats from human disturbance as these caves are open to the public. The findings will enable the TEKAM management to come out with a proper conservation and management plan for protecting the bat fauna in these caves.

  13. Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

  14. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  16. On the system of monitoring ambient air quality in relation to the health of the population of the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmarova, H [National Inst. of Public Health, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    In 1991 the Government of the Czech republic in Ruling No 369 approved a draft of a system for monitoring the health of the population in relation to the environment on the basis of a need to obtain purposefully targeted information for an appropriate policy for the protection of health and the environment. The aim of monitoring does not and cannot consist of determining the cause and effect relationship between the health status and pollutants. The system of monitoring is an open and comprehensive system of the continual collection, processing and evaluation of data concerned with the load on the organism and damage to human health in relation to environmental pollution. Air pollution and health are one of the six subsystems realised in the whole system (beside drinking water, noise, food, biomarkers, and demographic and health statistics). The aim of the monitoring is to obtain a data base that shall serve three main purposes: (1) Description of the status of health of the population and characteristics of the ambient air, (2) Evaluation of the trend of each index, (3) Assessment and evaluation of the risk to health of the parameters under study. Thirty cities and towns were selected in the Czech Republic for the realisation of the monitoring system. (author)

  17. On the system of monitoring ambient air quality in relation to the health of the population of the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmarova, H. [National Inst. of Public Health, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1995-12-31

    In 1991 the Government of the Czech republic in Ruling No 369 approved a draft of a system for monitoring the health of the population in relation to the environment on the basis of a need to obtain purposefully targeted information for an appropriate policy for the protection of health and the environment. The aim of monitoring does not and cannot consist of determining the cause and effect relationship between the health status and pollutants. The system of monitoring is an open and comprehensive system of the continual collection, processing and evaluation of data concerned with the load on the organism and damage to human health in relation to environmental pollution. Air pollution and health are one of the six subsystems realised in the whole system (beside drinking water, noise, food, biomarkers, and demographic and health statistics). The aim of the monitoring is to obtain a data base that shall serve three main purposes: (1) Description of the status of health of the population and characteristics of the ambient air, (2) Evaluation of the trend of each index, (3) Assessment and evaluation of the risk to health of the parameters under study. Thirty cities and towns were selected in the Czech Republic for the realisation of the monitoring system. (author)

  18. Changing trends of hepatitis b seromarkers amongst pakistani population: a laboratory-based review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zafar, A.; Khan, E.; Khan, M.S.; Moiz, B.; Jafri, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To study the changing trends of hepatitis B markers tested at Aga Khan University Hospital clinical laboratory according to the internationally recognised classification of hepatitis B profile. Methods: The retrospective study involved analysis of laboratory records of hepatitis B profiles of all patients collected from January 2001 to December 2008 at the Aga Khan University Hospital's clinical laboratory. Patients with complete profile tested were categorised according to the Centre for Diseases Control classification of hepatitis B profile. SPSS 16 was used for statistical analysis. Results: A total of 185,825 patients had serological markers for hepatitis B tested. Mean-age of reactive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) patients was 30+-12.5 years. HBsAg reactivity was significantly higher in males than females (34% vs 12%; p <0.0001). HBsAg showed a slight decline in the percentage reactivity during the 8-year study period, while a gradual increase in hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) reactivity was observed. Of the total, 23% patients belonged to the 'susceptible to infection' category; 39% patients were classified as 'chronically-ill'; 12% patients were categorised as 'immune due to hepatitis B vaccination'. 3% patients were classed as 'acutely infected'. Overall, samples received from Peshawar, Quetta and Larkana showed very high reactivity rates. Conclusion: The study substantiated the general perception that levels of HBsAg is showing a decreasing trend, while levels of HBsAb are increasing perhaps due to better vaccination of population. (author)

  19. Prevalence, co-occurrence and decennial trends of family violence toward children in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clément, Marie-Ève; Chamberland, Claire; Bouchard, Camil

    2016-03-14

    In Quebec, three population-based surveys have documented the prevalence of psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence toward children. This paper aims to present 1) the results of the 2012 survey with regard to the frequency and annual prevalence of violence, and 2) the trends in all three forms of violence between 1999 and 2012 according to children's age. The three independent surveys were all conducted through telephone interviews in 1999, 2004 and 2012 by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec and reached a total sample of 9,646 children living with a mother figure. Psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence were measured using the Parent Child Conflict Tactics Scales. The results show that repeated psychological aggression, after having increased between 1999 (48%) and 2004 (53%), slightly decreased in 2012 (49%). Minor physical violence decreased steadily between 1999 and 2012, from 48% to 35%, and severe physical violence remained stable (6%). These three forms of violence varied by the age category of the children. Finally, the results show that the co-occurrence of the use of physical and psychological violence remained high in all three surveys. The results are consistent with trends in North America and are discussed in terms of services to support families.

  20. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer needs. In this way, restaurateurs also contribute to greater customer satisfaction through quality service, which also has a positive effect on the restaurant and sales performance. Based on the results of the survey of 82 respondents, it was concluded that nutritional information shown within menus is of no importance, and also that such information does not affect the selection of dishes. Although nutritional information can be helpful in selecting more favourable and healthy food, neither men nor women care about it.

  1. Citizen science based monitoring of Greylag goose (Anser anser in Bavaria (Germany: combining count data and bag data to estimate long-term trends between 1988/89 and 2010/11.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Grauer

    Full Text Available Numbers of large grazing bird (geese, swans, cranes have increased all over Europe, but monitoring these species, e.g. for management purposes, can be time consuming and costly. In Bavaria, sedentary Greylag geese (Anser anser are monitored during the winter by two different citizen-based monitoring schemes: the International Waterbird Census [IWC] and hunting bag statistics. We compared the results of both schemes for the seasons 1988/89 to 2010/11 by analysing annual indices calculated using the software TRends and Indices for Monitoring Data-TRIM.We identified similar, highly significant rates of increase in both data sets for the entire region of Bavaria (IWC 14% [13-15%], bag 13% [12-14%]. Furthermore, in all of the seven Bavarian regions, trends in annual indices of both data sets correlated significantly. The quality of both datasets as indicators of abundances in Greylag geese populations in Bavaria was not undermined by either weaknesses typically associated with citizen based monitoring or problems generally assumed for IWC and bag data. We also show that bag data are, under the German system of collecting bag statistics, a reliable indicator of species' distribution, especially for detecting newly colonized areas. Therefore, wildlife managers may want to consider bag data from citizen science led monitoring programmes as evidence supporting the decision making processes. We also discuss requirements for any bag monitoring schemes being established to monitor trends in species' distribution and abundance.

  2. Twenty-year trends in benzodiazepine dispensing in the Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M; Conigrave, K M; Day, C A; Nguyen, Y; Haber, P S

    2014-01-01

    Considerable concern has been expressed about overprescribing of benzodiazepines and related harms. Past analyses have relied on World Health Organization-defined daily doses (DDD) which are sometimes out of keeping with clinical usage. This study examines 20-year (1992-2011) trends of benzodiazepine dispensing in Australia using both DDD and Ashton equivalent dose. Data from the Drug Utilisation Sub-Committee and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) website were analysed. Trends in number of prescriptions, DDD/1000 people/day and DDD/prescription were examined over time, and between states/territories. In the 20-year period, 174 080 904 scripts were recorded, with temazepam the most dispensed benzodiazepine (35% of scripts), followed by diazepam (23%). Overall recorded utilisation fell from 27.7 DDD/1000 people/day in 1992 to 20.8 in 2011 (24.9% decrease). There were striking changes in use of individual benzodiazepines over time, with reductions in oxazepam and flunitrazepam and dramatic increases in alprazolam. Since 1998, there has been a steady increase, albeit modest, in per script DDD. The DDD/1000 people/day for items dispensed through PBS/Repatriaton-PBS was highest in Tasmania and lowest in Northern Territory. Despite a modest overall decline in the amount of benzodiazepine dispensed, the level of use is still likely to reflect relative over-prescribing given the paucity of accepted indications for long-term use. Since 1998, there was a polynomial increase in quantity dispensed per script. The WHO-defined DDD for clonazepam seems inappropriate and could impede monitoring of its abuse. Other problems include lack of national data for medications not subsidised on PBS/Repatriation PBS. A broad policy approach is required, not one which targets only one particular benzodiazepine. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  3. Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

  4. Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora Ordóñez

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Materials and methods. Age-standardized (Segi’s world population incidence (ASIR and mortality (ASMR rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH respectively. Annual percentage change (APC was used to measure the changes in rates over time. Results. 1 637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6 and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4.The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5. Conclusions. There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma

  5. [Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

  6. Temporal trends in management and outcomes of testicular cancer: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leveridge, Michael J; Siemens, D Robert; Brennan, Kelly; Izard, Jason P; Karim, Safiya; An, Howard; Mackillop, William J; Booth, Christopher M

    2018-04-16

    Treatment guidelines for early-stage testicular cancer have increasingly recommended de-escalation of therapy with surveillance strategies. This study was designed to describe temporal trends in routine clinical practice and to determine whether de-escalation of therapy is associated with inferior survival in the general population. The Ontario Cancer Registry was linked to electronic records of treatment to identify all patients diagnosed with testicular cancer treated with orchiectomy in Ontario during 2000-2010. Treatment after orchiectomy was classified as radiotherapy (RT), retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND), chemotherapy, or none. Surveillance was defined as no identified treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were measured from the date of orchiectomy. The study population included 1564 and 1086 cases of seminomas and nonseminoma germ cell tumors (NSGCTs), respectively. Among patients with seminomas, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients with no treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy (from 56% to 84%; P testicular cancer in routine practice since 2000. Long-term survival in routine practice is excellent and has not decreased with the uptake of surveillance strategies. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  7. Development and evaluation of a new method for sampling and monitoring the symphylid population in pineapple

    OpenAIRE

    Soler, A.; Gaude, J. M.; Marie-Alphonsine, P. A.; Vinatier, F.; Dole, B.; Govindin, J. C.; Fournier, P.; Quénéhervé, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Symphylids (Hanseniella sp.) are polyphagous soilborne parasites. Today, symphylid populations on pineapple are monitored by observing root symptoms and the presence of symphylids at the bottom of basal leaves. The authors developed a reliable method with a bait and trap device to monitor symphylid populations in pineapple or fallow crops. The spatial distribution of the symphylid populations was evaluated using the variance/mean ratios and spatial analyses based on Moran's and Ge...

  8. Fifty-year trends in a box turtle population in Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, R.J.; Henry, P.F.P.; Bunck, C.M.

    1999-01-01

    A survey conducted in 1995 investigated long term declines reported in a population of box turtles Terrapene Carolina monitored each decade since 1945 in bottomland hardwood forest at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland. Methods duplicated past surveys in most respects, but were supplemented by radiotelemetry and a survey of dominant vegetation. Seventy different turtles were found on the 11.8 ha study area, a decline of >75% since peak populations were recorded in 1955. Searchers were less efficient in 1995 than in 1945-1975 for a variety of possible reasons. Among turtles recorded, approximately equal numbers persisted from each of the past five decades, with some individuals surviving >70 years. A sex ratio strongly favoring males was first recorded in 1975 and continued in 1995, but juveniles and subadults were found in greater proportion in 1995 than in any other survey. Six of nine radio-marked turtles left the bottomland study area and migrated to the adjoining bluffs to hibernate, suggesting more extensive movements and perhaps less stable home ranges than formerly thought. Age structure of trees indicated a gradual change to more shade-tolerant species. Examination of rates of change from survey data suggested that major losses probably resulted from changes in hydrology that exacerbated flooding in 1972, with recovery only beginning in 1995 and perhaps limited both by repeated flood events and successional changes in the forest. Slow recovery from losses may indicate that populations of the species would respond poorly to exploitation.

  9. Genetic monitoring of irradiated Drosophila populations treated with antimutagen melanine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosseh, I.B.; Savchenko, V.K.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1986-01-01

    A nonspecific increase was noted in the resistance of Drosophila populations to toxic and mutagenic effects of ionizing radiation and the chemical mutagen ethylmethansulphonate during long-term exposure. It was established that under the effect of melanine, less resistant genotypes retained, and the resistance of the populations to damaging factors did not increase

  10. Genetic monitoring of irradiated Drosophila populations treated with antimutagen melanine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosseh, I.B.; Savchenko, V.K.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1986-01-01

    It was shown that viability of irradiated Drosophila is, on an average, lower than in intact populations. The fertility first decreases then increases exceeding the control level. Melanine added to the diet increases fertility and viability of both exposed and intact Drosophila populations

  11. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  12. Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9% (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0

  13. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  14. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig S. Machtans

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

  15. Inhalant abuse: monitoring trends by using poison control data, 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsolek, Melinda R; White, Nicole C; Litovitz, Toby L

    2010-05-01

    To demonstrate the value of poison control data as an adjunct to national drug abuse surveys and a source of data to inform and focus prevention efforts. National Poison Data System (NPDS) data are collected and compiled in real time by the 60 US poison centers as callers seek guidance for poison exposures. Demographic, geographic, product, outcome, and treatment-site data for the 35453 inhalant cases reported between 1993 and 2008 were analyzed. The prevalence of inhalant cases reported to US poison control centers decreased 33% from 1993 to 2008. Prevalence was highest among children aged 12 to 17 years and peaked in 14-year-olds. In contrast to national survey data showing nearly equal use of inhalants by both genders, 73.5% of NPDS inhalant cases occurred in boys, which suggests that boys may pursue riskier usage behaviors. Most cases (67.8%) were managed in health care facilities. More than 3400 different products were reported. Propellants, gasoline, and paint were the most frequent product categories. Propellants were the only product category that substantially increased over time. Butane, propane, and air fresheners had the highest fatality rates. Prevalence for all inhalants was highest in western mountain states and West Virginia, but geographic distribution varied according to product type. Gasoline was a proportionately greater problem for younger children; propellants were an issue for older children. NPDS should be used to monitor inhalant abuse because it provides unique, timely, and clinically useful information on medical outcomes experienced by users, includes detailed product information (brand and formulation), and can potentially be used to identify real-time demographic, geographic, and product trends. Focusing inhalant prevention efforts on the most hazardous products and most seriously affected users may improve and facilitate strategic prevention, enabling interventions such as targeted education, product reformulation, repackaging

  16. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Flousek

    Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  17. A review of the methods for monitoring roe deer European populations with particular reference to Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Meriggi

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Throughout the last century, deer populations have shown a remarkable increase both in North America and Europe. As a consequence, the estimate of roe deer density has become a matter of interest. We reviewed the available literature on the methods used for monitoring roe deer populations in Europe from 1950 to 2004, with the aim of detecting the trend of papers and distribution of census techniques by years, countries and habitat types. Particular attention was paid to the census and monitoring methods adopted in Italy and Tuscany, which is the region where the roe deer is more carefully managed. Published papers showed an increasing trend, as did the number of methods used and their complexity. France, Italy, UK and Spain were the countries with the richest literature and the largest variety of methods applied. Eleven census methods have been applied in woods - particularly line transects, pellet group counts, CMR and IKA - with only 6 in open country, mainly pellet group counts. In Europe vantage points are more commonly used for planning culling programs, whilst in Italy, and particularly in Tuscany, the drive census and spotlight counts are mainly used. Unfortunately, in Europe, harvesting programs are still too much based on hunter knowledge and traditions. However the countries where the management of roe deer hunting is of more recent tradition make an exception to this rule. In Italy and Tuscany the methods of monitoring roe deer populations should be improved towards less expensive and more accurate methods. Riassunto Revisione dei metodi di monitoraggio delle popolazioni di capriolo in Europa con particolare riferimento all'Italia Le popolazioni di Cervidi hanno avuto nell'ultimo secolo un notevole incremento sia in America settentrionale, sia in Europa. Di conseguenza la densità delle popolazioni di capriolo è diventata oggetto di interessi diversi e la sua stima

  18. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M.

    2006-01-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Edmonton, as well as the NO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO 2 and O 3 for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM 2.5 . There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay

  19. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  20. Contemporary Trends of Reported Sepsis Among Maternal Decedents in Texas: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that death certificate-based single-cause-of-death diagnoses can substantially underestimate the contribution of sepsis to mortality in the general population and among maternal decedents. There are no population-based data in the United States on the patterns of the contribution of sepsis to pregnancy-associated deaths. We studied the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to identify pregnancy-associated hospitalizations with reported hospital death during 2001-2010. We then examined the annual reporting of sepsis, and that of other reported most common causes of maternal death, including hemorrhage, embolism, preeclampsia/eclampsia, cardiovascular conditions, cardiomyopathy, cerebrovascular accidents, and anesthesia complications. The annual rate of sepsis among decedents, its trend over time, and changes of its annual rank among other examined potential causes of maternal death were assessed. There were 557 pregnancy-associated hospital deaths during study period. Sepsis was reported in 131 (23.5%) decedents. Sepsis has been increasingly reported among decedents, rising by 9.1%/year (P = 0.0025). The rank of sepsis, as compared to the other examined potential causes of maternal death rose from the 5th in 2001 to 1st since 2008. At the end of the last decade, sepsis has been reported in 28.1% of pregnancy-associated deaths. More than one potential cause of maternal death was reported in 39% of decedents. Sepsis has become the most commonly reported potential cause of death among maternal decedents in the present cohort, noted in over 1 in 4 fatal hospitalizations by the end of the last decade. Although causality cannot be inferred from administrative data, given its known contribution to maternal death, it is likely that sepsis plays an increasing role in fatal maternal hospital outcomes. The prevalent co-reporting of multiple potential causes of maternal death in the present cohort underscores the complexity of determining the sources of

  1. [Static Retinal Vessel Analysis in Population-based Study SHIP-Trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theophil, Constanze; Jürgens, Clemens; Großjohann, Rico; Kempin, Robert; Ittermann, Till; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Tost, Frank H W

    2017-08-24

    Background Interdisciplinary investigations of possible connections between general diseases and ophthalmological changes are difficult to perform in the clinical environment. But they are gaining in importance as a result of the age-related increase in chronic diseases. The collection of health-related parameters in the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project allows to derive conclusions for the general population. Methods The population-based SHIP trend study was conducted between 2008 and 2012 in Greifswald. The baseline cohort included 4420 subjects (response 50.1%) at the age of 20 to 84 years. The pre-existence of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and smoking status were questioned in a standardized questionnaire, the blood pressure and the HbA 1c were determined by the laboratory. The vascular diameter of retinal arterioles and venules were determined by means of non-mydriatic fundus images and the retinal arterial (CRAE) and venous equivalent (CRVE) were calculated therefrom. The association of diabetes mellitus, HbA 1c , smoking status and blood pressure with the retinal vascular parameters was tested for age and sex with linear regression models. Results In 3218 subjects with evaluable standardized fundus photographs, significant associations of elevated HbA 1c (> 6.5%), smoking status and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were found with the retinal vessel widths CRAE and CRVE. Anamnestic diabetes mellitus, on the other hand, was not associated with any of the vascular parameters. Conclusion This research study reveals a relevant correlation between general diseases and the retinal blood flow in the eye. Therefore, general diseases can induce ophthalmological changes and eye examination can provide information for the assessment of general diseases. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  2. Study on the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population, 2004-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Zhang

    Full Text Available Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10(th Revision (ICD-10. We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004-2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79-38.47% of all injury deaths and suicides (16.20-22.01% were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004-2010. The burden of injury among men (72.11% was about three times more than that of women's (28.89%. This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China.

  3. [Trends in the consumption of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a Colombian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado-Alba, Jorge Enrique; Alzate-Carvajal, Verónica; Jimenez-Canizales, Carlos Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Latin America, psychotropic medications are the third most marketed drug group, especially antidepressants (35%) and anxiolytics (5%). The objective of this study was to determine the trends in the consumption and the costs of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a population of patients enrolled in the Health System of Colombia. A descriptive, observational study was performed using the data recorded inprescriptions for any anxiolytic or hypnotic drug prescribed to outpatients in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 in a population of 3.5 million people. Sociodemographic, pharmacological variables, overall costs, and cost per thousand inhabitants per day (CHD), were also recorded. The number of patients who received the drugs studied varied from 11,097 to 19,231 between 2008 and 2013. The most used drugs were clonazepam (44.1% of formulations), alprazolam (31.2%), and lorazepam (13.2%). The invoiced value of anxiolytics increased from US$ 207,673.63 in 2008 to US$ 488,977 in 2013, an increase of 135.4%. The CHD was US$ 0.31 for benzodiazepines, and US$ 0.02 for zaleplon, zolpidem and zopiclone (Z drugs) for 2008, and US$ 0.36 and US$ 0.02 in 2013 respectively. The CHD declined after 2010 following the introduction of generic drugs. Patients receiving benzodiazepines in Colombia are mostly women, average age 55 years, with very low frequency in defined daily doses per thousand inhabitants when compared with other countries. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  4. CENTRAL DARK MATTER TRENDS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES FROM STRONG LENSING, DYNAMICS, AND STELLAR POPULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortora, C.; Jetzer, P.; Napolitano, N. R.; Romanowsky, A. J.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the correlations between central dark matter (DM) content of early-type galaxies and their sizes and ages, using a sample of intermediate-redshift (z ∼ 0.2) gravitational lenses from the SLACS survey, and by comparing them to a larger sample of z ∼ 0 galaxies. We decompose the deprojected galaxy masses into DM and stellar components using combinations of strong lensing, stellar dynamics, and stellar populations modeling. For a given stellar mass, we find that for galaxies with larger sizes, the DM fraction increases and the mean DM density decreases, consistently with the cuspy halos expected in cosmological formation scenarios. The DM fraction also decreases with stellar age, which can be partially explained by the inverse correlation between size and age. The residual trend may point to systematic dependencies on formation epoch of halo contraction or stellar initial mass functions. These results are in agreement with recent findings based on local galaxies by Napolitano et al. and suggest negligible evidence of galaxy evolution over the last ∼2.5 Gyr other than passive stellar aging.

  5. The SLUGGS survey: globular cluster stellar population trends from weak absorption lines in stacked spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usher, Christopher; Forbes, Duncan A.; Brodie, Jean P.; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Strader, Jay; Conroy, Charlie; Foster, Caroline; Pastorello, Nicola; Pota, Vincenzo; Arnold, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    As part of the SAGES Legacy Unifying Globulars and GalaxieS (SLUGGS) survey, we stack 1137 Keck DEIMOS (Deep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph) spectra of globular clusters from 10 galaxies to study their stellar populations in detail. The stacked spectra have median signal-to-noise ratios of ˜90 Å-1. Besides the calcium triplet, we study weaker sodium, magnesium, titanium and iron lines as well as the Hα and higher order Paschen hydrogen lines. In general, the stacked spectra are consistent with old ages and a Milky Way-like initial mass function. However, we see different metal line index strengths at fixed colour and magnitude, and differences in the calcium triplet-colour relation from galaxy to galaxy. We interpret this as strong evidence for variations in the globular cluster colour-metallicity relation between galaxies. Two possible explanations for the colour-metallicity relation variations are that the average ages of globular clusters vary from galaxy to galaxy or that the average abundances of light elements (i.e. He, C, N and O) differ between galaxies. Stacking spectra by magnitude, we see that the colours become redder and metal line indices stronger with brighter magnitudes. These trends are consistent with the previously reported `blue tilts' being mass-metallicity relations.

  6. Trends in population-based studies of human genetics in infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, Jessica L; Dowling, Nicole F; Yu, Wei; Yesupriya, Ajay; Zhang, Lyna; Gwinn, Marta

    2012-01-01

    Pathogen genetics is already a mainstay of public health investigation and control efforts; now advances in technology make it possible to investigate the role of human genetic variation in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. To describe trends in this field, we analyzed articles that were published from 2001 through 2010 and indexed by the HuGE Navigator, a curated online database of PubMed abstracts in human genome epidemiology. We extracted the principal findings from all meta-analyses and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with an infectious disease-related outcome. Finally, we compared the representation of diseases in HuGE Navigator with their contributions to morbidity worldwide. We identified 3,730 articles on infectious diseases, including 27 meta-analyses and 23 GWAS. The number published each year increased from 148 in 2001 to 543 in 2010 but remained a small fraction (about 7%) of all studies in human genome epidemiology. Most articles were by authors from developed countries, but the percentage by authors from resource-limited countries increased from 9% to 25% during the period studied. The most commonly studied diseases were HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, hepatitis B infection, hepatitis C infection, sepsis, and malaria. As genomic research methods become more affordable and accessible, population-based research on infectious diseases will be able to examine the role of variation in human as well as pathogen genomes. This approach offers new opportunities for understanding infectious disease susceptibility, severity, treatment, control, and prevention.

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Trends of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (Magnoliophyta in the Canary Islands: population changes in the last two decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Fabbri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass meadows perform essential ecosystem functions and services. Though the meadows are globally deteriorating, numerous regressions remain unreported as a result of data fragmentation. Cymodocea nodosa is the most important seagrass in shallow coastal waters of the Canary Islands. No study has so far investigated temporal population trends at the entire archipelago scale. Using data collected in the past 23 years by local companies, public authorities and research groups, the population trends of Cymodocea nodosa were analysed over the past two decades at the scales of islands, island sectors and meadows. During this period, a prevalence of negative trends was revealed for three seagrass demographic descriptors (seagrass shoot density, coverage and leaf length at the three scales, evidencing an overall deterioration in seagrass meadow integrity. These results suggest the need to develop correct management strategies to guarantee the conservation of this seagrass and the meadows it creates.

  9. Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

    2014-09-01

    Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Use of archive aerial photography for monitoring black mangrove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    A study was conducted on the south Texas Gulf Coast to evaluate archive aerial color-infrared (CIR) photography combined with supervised image analysis techniques to quantify changes in black mangrove [Avicennia germinans (L.) L.] populations over a 26-year period. Archive CIR film from two study si...

  11. The secret life of marbled murrelets: monitoring populations and habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan Thompson

    2007-01-01

    The marbled murrelet is a small diving seabird that occupies coastal waters from Alaska to central California. Murrelets have a unique nesting strategy that requires them to commute tens of miles inland, where they use large mossy branches on older conifers as platforms to balance their solitary egg. Populations have been declining for decades as the amount of nesting...

  12. Status and development trends of the National Space Monitoring System of the Republic of Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultangazin, U.M.; Spivak, L.F.

    2005-01-01

    Principles of construction and architecture of space monitoring of Kazakhstan are presented, structure and specifications of space and ground segments are described, top-priority tasks of monitoring are determined. (author)

  13. Lack of agreement and trending ability of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor compared with thermodilution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Sørensen, H; Hansen, K L; Ostergaard, M

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive monitoring systems of central haemodynamics are gaining increasing popularity. The present study investigated the precision of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor (ECOM) system and its agreement with pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution (PAC TD) for measuring...

  14. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Eglington

    Full Text Available Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

  15. Trends and determinant factors in hypertension control in a population study with 25 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The present study focused on trend in hypertension control and on determinant factors that may influence efficacy in antihypertensive therapy. Two measures of treatment efficacy were used: population blood pressure and the relative frequency of effectively treated patients (blood press...

  16. Socioeconomic status and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Gerdes, L U; Davidsen, M

    2000-01-01

    The decline in cardiovascular mortality in Denmark during the 1980s has been greatest in the highest socioeconomic groups of the population. This study examines whether the increased social inequality in cardiovascular mortality has been accompanied by a different trend in cardiovascular risk...

  17. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  18. Whole body monitoring of the population of Cambridgeshire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dendy, P.P.; Hayball, M.P.; Lyttle, K.D.

    1992-01-01

    1220 volunteers were monitored using the Addenbrookes wholebody counter and their spectra and results were stored and analysed. Detailed statistical analyses have been made for 1032 volunteers who were Cambridgeshire residents. After tracking the decline of radiocaesium following Chernobyl, figures were established for the maximum likely average level of body contamination of radiocaesium and the practical level of detectability of radioiodine. Other radionuclides were occasionally detected in volunteers but the reason could be readily determined and activities were always low. Results are available in a conveniently recoverable form and the spectra can be examined for the presence of other radionuclides if necessary. (author)

  19. Home blood-pressure monitoring in a hypertensive pregnant population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, H; Sheehan, E; Thilaganathan, B; Khalil, A

    2018-04-01

    The majority of patients with chronic or gestational hypertension do not develop pre-eclampsia. Home blood-pressure monitoring (HBPM) has the potential to offer a more accurate and acceptable means of monitoring hypertensive patients during pregnancy compared with traditional pathways of frequent outpatient monitoring. The aim of this study was to determine whether HBPM reduces visits to antenatal services and is safe in pregnancy. This was a case-control study of 166 hypertensive pregnant women, which took place at St George's Hospital, University of London. Inclusion criteria were: chronic hypertension, gestational hypertension or high risk of developing pre-eclampsia, no significant proteinuria (≤ 1+ proteinuria on dipstick testing) and normal biochemical and hematological markers. Exclusion criteria were maternal age  155 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > 100 mmHg, significant proteinuria (≥ 2+ proteinuria on dipstick testing or protein/creatinine ratio > 30 mg/mmol), evidence of small-for-gestational age (estimated fetal weight < 10 th centile), signs of severe pre-eclampsia, significant mental health concerns or insufficient understanding of the English language. Pregnant women in the HBPM group were taught how to measure and record their blood pressure using a validated machine at home and attended every 1-2 weeks for assessment depending on clinical need. The control group was managed as per the local protocol prior to the implementation of HBPM. The two groups were compared with respect to number of visits to antenatal services and outcome. There were 108 women in the HBPM group and 58 in the control group. There was no difference in maternal age, parity, body mass index, ethnicity or smoking status between the groups, but there were more women with chronic hypertension in the HBPM group compared with the control group (49.1% vs 25.9%, P = 0.004). The HBPM group had significantly fewer outpatient attendances per patient (6

  20. Trends in knee arthroscopy and subsequent arthroplasty in an Australian population: a retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Knee arthroscopy is a common procedure in orthopaedic surgery. In recent times the efficacy of this procedure has been questioned with a number of randomized controlled trials demonstrating a lack of effect in the treatment of osteoarthritis. Consequently, a number of trend studies have been conducted, exploring rates of knee arthroscopy and subsequent conversion to Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) with varying results. Progression to TKA is seen as an indicator of lack of effect of primary knee arthroscopy. The aim of this paper is to measure overall rates of knee arthroscopy and the proportion of these patients that undergo subsequent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) within 24 months, and to measure trends over time in an Australian population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults undergoing a knee arthroscopy and TKA in all hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2000 and 2008. Datasets obtained from the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) were analysed using negative binomial regression. Admission rates for knee arthroscopy were determined by year, age, gender and hospital status (public versus private) and readmission for TKA within 24 months was calculated. Results There was no significant change in the overall rate of knee arthroscopy between 2000 and 2008 (-0.68%, 95% CI: -2.80 to 1.49). The rates declined in public hospitals (-1.25%, 95% CI: -2.39 to -0.10) and remained relatively steady in private hospitals (0.42%, 95% CI: -1.43 to 0.60). The proportion of patients 65 years or over undergoing TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy was 21.5%. After adjusting for age and gender, there was a significant decline in rates of TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy for all patients (-1.70%, 95% CI:-3.13 to -0.24), patients admitted to private hospitals (-2.65%, 95% CI: -4.06 to -1.23) and patients aged ≥65 years (-3.12%, 95% CI: -5.02 to -1.18). Conclusions Rates of knee arthroscopy are not increasing

  1. Water use benefit index as a tool for community-based monitoring of water related trends in the Great Barrier Reef region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smajgl, A.; Larson, S.; Hug, B.; De Freitas, D. M.

    2010-12-01

    SummaryThis paper presents a tool for documenting and monitoring water use benefits in the Great Barrier Reef catchments that allows temporal and spatial comparison along the region. Water, water use benefits and water allocations are currently receiving much attention from Australian policy makers and conservation practitioners. Because of the inherent complexity and variability in water quality, it is essential that scientific information is presented in a meaningful way to policy makers, managers and ultimately, to the general public who have to live with the consequences of the decisions. We developed an inexpensively populated and easily understandable water use benefit index as a tool for community-based monitoring of water related trends in the Great Barrier Reef region. The index is developed based on a comparative list of selected water-related indices integrating attributes across physico-chemical, economic, social, and ecological domains currently used in the assessment of water quality, water quantity and water use benefits in Australia. Our findings indicate that the proposed index allows the identification of water performance indicators by temporal and spatial comparisons. Benefits for decision makers and conservation practitioners include a flexible way of prioritization towards the domain with highest concern. The broader community benefits from a comprehensive and user-friendly tool, communicating changes in water quality trends more effectively.

  2. Long-term trends in airborne SO2 in an air quality monitoring station in Seoul, Korea, from 1987 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Azmatullah; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Szulejko, Jan E; Brown, Richard J C; Jeon, Eui-Chan; Oh, Jong-Min; Shin, Yong Soon; Adelodun, Adedeji A

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was intermittently measured at an air quality monitoring (AQM) station in the Yong-san district of Seoul, Korea, between 1987 and 2013. The SO 2 level was compared with other important pollutants concurrently measured, including methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 ). If split into three different periods (period 1, 1987-1988, period 2, 1999-2000, and period 3, 2004-2013), the respective mean [SO 2 ] values (6.57 ± 4.29, 6.30 ± 2.44, and 5.29 ± 0.63 ppb) showed a slight reduction across the entire study period. The concentrations of SO 2 are found to be strongly correlated with other pollutants such as CO (r = 0.614, p = 0.02), which tracked reductions in reported emissions due to tighter emissions standards enacted by the South Korean government. There was also a clear seasonal trend in the SO 2 level, especially in periods 2 and 3, reflecting the combined effects of domestic heating by coal briquettes and meteorological conditions. Although only a 16% concentration reduction was achieved during the 27-year study duration, this is significant if one considers rapid urbanization, an 83.2% increase in population, and rapid industrialization that took place during that period. Since 1970, a network of air quality monitoring (AQM) stations has been operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE) for routine nationwide monitoring of air pollutant concentrations in urban/suburban areas. To date, the information obtained from these stations has provided a platform for analyzing long-term trends of major pollutant species. In this study, we examined the long-term trends of SO 2 levels and relevant environmental parameters monitored continuously in the Yong-san district of Seoul between 1987 and 2013. The data were analyzed over various time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual intervals). The results obtained from

  3. Biodiversity change is uncoupled from species richness trends : Consequences for conservation and monitoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hillebrand, Helmut; Blasius, Bernd; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Chase, Jonathan M.; Downing, John A.; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hodapp, Dorothee; Larsen, Stefano; Lewandowska, Aleksandra M.; Seabloom, Eric W.; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Ryabov, Alexey B.

    Global concern about human impact on biological diversity has triggered an intense research agenda on drivers and consequences of biodiversity change in parallel with international policy seeking to conserve biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions. Quantifying the trends in biodiversity is

  4. Temporal Trends in Enterobacter Species Bloodstream Infection: A Population-Based Study, 1998-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hasan, Majdi N.; Lahr, Brian D.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.; Baddour, Larry M.

    2010-01-01

    Enterobacter species are the fourth most common cause of gram-negative bloodstream infection (BSI). We examined temporal changes and seasonal variation in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI, estimated 28-day and 1-year mortality, and determined in vitro antimicrobial resistance rates of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1/1/1998 to 12/31/2007. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to examine temporal changes and seasonal variation in incidence rate and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate 28-day and 1-year mortality. The median age of patients with Enterobacter spp. BSI was 58 years and 53% were female. The overall age- and gender-adjusted incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI was 3.3/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3-4.4). There was a linear trend of increasing incidence rate from 0.8 (95% CI: 0-1.9) to 6.2 (95% CI: 3.0-9.3) per 100,000 person-years between 1998 and 2007 (p=0.002). There was no significant difference in the incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI during the warmest four months compared to the remainder of the year (incidence rate ratio 1.06 [95% CI: 0.47-2.01]). The overall 28-day and 1-year mortality rates of Enterobacter spp. BSI were 21% (95% CI: 8-34%) and 38% (95% CI: 22-53%), respectively. Up to 13% of Enterobacter spp. bloodstream isolates were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to describe the epidemiology and outcome of Enterobacter spp. BSI. The increase in incidence rate of Enterobacter spp. BSI over the past decade, coupled with its associated antimicrobial resistance, dictate more investigation of this syndrome. PMID:20518795

  5. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  6. Trends in skin cancer knowledge, sun protection practices and behaviours in the Northern Ireland population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavin, Anna; Boyle, Rhonda; Donnelly, David; Donnelly, Conan; Gordon, Sandra; McElwee, Gerry; O'Hagan, Art

    2012-06-01

    Sun exposure increases risk of skin cancer, especially melanoma, incidence of which continues to rise. Reported skin cancer knowledge and trends in sun care behaviours are documented in a UK region where there has been 20 years of sun-related health promotion campaigns. In 2000, 2004 and 2008, a 'care in the sun' module was included in the Northern Ireland (NI) Omnibus survey. Randomly selected subjects were asked to complete a sun-related questionnaire and proportions of respondents analysed by demographic and socio-economic factors, with differences tested using z-tests and the chi-squared test. Around 3623 persons responded. Skin cancer knowledge was high (97%). Sun avoidance decreased with time and was lowest among younger age groups and males. Sunscreen use was high (70%), unchanged over 8 years, and more likely among younger age groups, females, those in paid employment, and those with tertiary level education. Use of sunscreen with minimum Sun Protection Factor (SPF) 15 (a campaign message) increased from 45% to 70% (P < 0.01). Skin self-examination was infrequent (8%), less common among those aged ≥65 years, males and those with only primary or secondary level education. Messages on sunscreen use have penetrated the population well, but lower use among the unemployed suggests cost as an issue. Lack of sun avoidance in young people, especially men, poses a risk for further skin cancer increases. Low levels of reported skin self-examination in older people, men and those with lower educational attainment identify areas for further action.

  7. Trends in the incidence of cancer in the black population of Harare, Zimbabwe 1991-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chokunonga, E; Borok, M Z; Chirenje, Z M; Nyakabau, A M; Parkin, D M

    2013-08-01

    Incidence rates of different cancers have been calculated for the black population of Harare, Zimbabwe for a 20-year period (1991-2010) coinciding with continuing social and lifestyle changes, and the peak, and subsequent wane, of the HIV-AIDS epidemic. The overall risk of cancer increased during the period in both sexes, with rates of cervix and prostate cancers showing particularly dramatic increases (3.3% and 6.4% annually, respectively). By 2004, prostate cancer had become the most common cancer of men. The incidence of cancer of the esophagus, formerly the most common cancer of men, has remained relatively constant, whereas rates of breast and cervix cancers, the most common malignancies of women, have shown significant increases (4.9% and 3.3% annually, respectively). The incidence of Kaposi sarcoma increased to a maximum around 1998-2000 and then declined in all age groups, and in both sexes The incidence of squamous cell cancers of the conjunctiva is relatively high, with temporal trends similar to those of Kaposi sarcoma. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the fifth most common cancer of men and fourth of women, showed a steady increase in incidence throughout the period (6.7-6.9% annually), although rates in young adults (15-39) have decreased since 2001. Cancer control in Zimbabwe, as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, involves meeting the challenge of emerging cancers associated with westernization of lifestyles (large bowel, breast and prostate), while the incidence of cancers associated with poverty and infection (liver, cervix and esophagus) shows little decline, and the residual burden of the AIDS-associated cancers remains significant. Copyright © 2013 UICC.

  8. Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M

    2001-01-01

    AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level of ...

  9. Trends in preterm birth in singleton deliveries in a Hong Kong population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hui, Annie S. Y.; Lao, Terence T.; Leung, Tak Yeung; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Sahota, Daljit S.

    2014-01-01

    To examine trends in preterm birth and its relationship with perinatal mortality in Hong Kong. In a retrospective cohort study, data were reviewed from singletons delivered between 1995 and 2011 at a university teaching hospital. Trends in preterm birth (between 24 and 36 weeks of pregnancy),

  10. Population trends in Pacific Oceanic sharks and the utility of regulations on shark finning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Shelley C; Harley, Shelton J; Hoyle, Simon D; Rice, Joel S

    2013-02-01

    Accurate assessment of shark population status is essential for conservation but is often constrained by limited and unreliable data. To provide a basis for improved management of shark resources, we analyzed a long-term record of species-specific catches, sizes, and sexes of sharks collected by onboard observers in the western and central Pacific Ocean from 1995 to 2010. Using generalized linear models, we estimated population-status indicators on the basis of catch rate and biological indicators of fishing pressure on the basis of median size to identify trends for blue (Prionace glauca), mako (Isurus spp.), oceanic whitetip (Carcharhinus longimanus), and silky (Carcharhinus falciformis) sharks. Standardized catch rates of longline fleets declined significantly for blue sharks in the North Pacific (by 5% per year [CI 2% to 8%]), for mako sharks in the North Pacific (by 7% per year [CI 3% to 11%]), and for oceanic whitetip sharks in tropical waters (by 17% per year [CI 14% to 20%]). Median lengths of silky and oceanic whitetip sharks decreased significantly in their core habitat, and almost all sampled silky sharks were immature. Our results are consistent with results of analyses of similar data sets. Combined, these results and evidence of targeted fishing for sharks in some regional fisheries heighten concerns for sustainable utilization, particularly for oceanic whitetip and North Pacific blue sharks. Regional regulations that prohibit shark finning (removal of fins and discarding of the carcass) were enacted in 2007 and are in many cases the only form of control on shark catches. However, there is little evidence of a reduction of finning in longline fisheries. In addition, silky and oceanic whitetip sharks are more frequently retained than finned, which suggests that even full implementation of and adherence to a finning prohibition may not substantially reduce mortality rates for these species. We argue that finning prohibitions divert attention from

  11. Characteristics and trends on global environmental monitoring research: a bibliometric analysis based on Science Citation Index Expanded.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Di; Fu, Hui-Zhen; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2017-11-01

    A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded from Web of Science was carried out to provide insights into research activities and trends of the environmental monitoring from 1993 to 2012. Study emphases covered publication outputs, language, categories, journals, countries/territories, institutions, words, and hot issues. The results indicated that the annual output of environmental monitoring publications increased steadily. The environmental sciences and analytical chemistry were the two most common categories. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment published the most articles. The USA and the UK ranked in the top two in terms of all five indicators. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took the leading position of the institutions in terms of publication output. The synthesized analysis by words in title, author keywords, and KeyWords Plus provided important clues for hot issues. Researchers paid more attention on water environment monitoring than other environmental factors. The contaminants including organic contaminants, heavy metal, and radiation were most common research focuses, and the organic contaminants and heavy metal of the degree of concern were gradually rising. Sensor and biosensor played an important role in the field of environmental monitoring devices. In addition to conventional device detection method, the remote sensing, GIS, and wireless sensor networks were the mainstream environmental monitoring methods. The international organization, social awareness, and the countries' positive and effective political and policies promoted the published articles.

  12. Oncorhynchus nerka population monitoring in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teuscher, D.M.; Taki, D.; Ariwite, K.

    1996-01-01

    Critical habitat for endangered Snake River sockeye salmon includes five rearing lakes located in the Sawtooth Valley of central Idaho. Most of the lakes contain either introduced or endemic kokanee populations. Snake River sockeye occur naturally in Redfish Lake, and are being stocked in Redfish and Pettit Lakes. Because kokanee compete with sockeye for limited food resources, understanding population characteristics of both species such as spawn timing, egg-to-fry survival, distribution and abundance are important components of sockeye recovery. This chapter describes some of those characteristics. In 1995, hydroacoustic estimates of O. nerka densities in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes ranged from 57 to 465 fish/ha. Densities were greatest in Pettit followed by Redfish (167), Alturas (95), and Stanley Lakes. O. nerka numbers increased from 1994 values in Pettit and Alturas Lakes, but declined in Redfish and Stanley. Despite a decline in total lake abundance, O. nerka biomass estimates in Redfish Lake increased. Approximately 144,000 kokanee fry recruited to Redfish Lake from Fishhook Creek. O. nerka fry recruitment to Stanley and Alturas lake was 5,000 and 30,000 fry, respectively. Egg-to-fry survival was 14% in Fishhook and 7% in Stanley Lake Creek. In Fishhook Creek, kokanee spawning escapement was estimated using stream surveys and a weir. Escapement estimates were 4,860 from weir counts, and 7,000 from stream surveys. As part of the kokanee reduction program, 385 of the spawning female kokanee were culled. Escapement for Stanley Lake Creek was only 60 fish, a ten fold decrease from 1994. In Alturas Lake, kokanee spawners dropped by 50% to 1,600

  13. Oncorhynchus nerka population monitoring in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teuscher, D.M.; Taki, D.; Ariwite, K.

    1996-05-01

    Critical habitat for endangered Snake River sockeye salmon includes five rearing lakes located in the Sawtooth Valley of central Idaho. Most of the lakes contain either introduced or endemic kokanee populations. Snake River sockeye occur naturally in Redfish Lake, and are being stocked in Redfish and Pettit Lakes. Because kokanee compete with sockeye for limited food resources, understanding population characteristics of both species such as spawn timing, egg-to-fry survival, distribution and abundance are important components of sockeye recovery. This chapter describes some of those characteristics. In 1995, hydroacoustic estimates of O. nerka densities in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes ranged from 57 to 465 fish/ha. Densities were greatest in Pettit followed by Redfish (167), Alturas (95), and Stanley Lakes. O. nerka numbers increased from 1994 values in Pettit and Alturas Lakes, but declined in Redfish and Stanley. Despite a decline in total lake abundance, O. nerka biomass estimates in Redfish Lake increased. Approximately 144,000 kokanee fry recruited to Redfish Lake from Fishhook Creek. O. nerka fry recruitment to Stanley and Alturas lake was 5,000 and 30,000 fry, respectively. Egg-to-fry survival was 14% in Fishhook and 7% in Stanley Lake Creek. In Fishhook Creek, kokanee spawning escapement was estimated using stream surveys and a weir. Escapement estimates were 4,860 from weir counts, and 7,000 from stream surveys. As part of the kokanee reduction program, 385 of the spawning female kokanee were culled. Escapement for Stanley Lake Creek was only 60 fish, a ten fold decrease from 1994. In Alturas Lake, kokanee spawners dropped by 50% to 1,600.

  14. Recommended methods for monitoring change in bird populations by counting and capture of migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. T. Hussell; C. John Ralph

    2005-01-01

    Counts and banding captures of spring or fall migrants can generate useful information on the status and trends of the source populations. To do so, the counts and captures must be taken and recorded in a standardized and consistent manner. We present recommendations for field methods for counting and capturing migrants at intensively operated sites, such as bird...

  15. Immunotoxicity Monitoring in a Population Exposed to Polychlorinated Biphenyls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajo Haase

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB burden and several indicators of immune function was investigated as part of the HELPcB (Health Effects in High-Level Exposure to PCB program, offering bio-monitoring to workers, relatives, and neighbors exposed to PCBs by a German transformers and capacitors recycling company. The present retrospective observational study evaluates the correlation of plasma levels of total PCBs, five indicator congeners (28, 101, 138, 153, 180, and seven dioxin-like congeners (105, 114, 118, 156, 157, 167, 189 with several parameters of immune function. The cross-sectional study was performed immediately after the end of exposure (258 subjects, and one (218 subjects, and two (177 subjects years later. At the first time point, measurements showed significant positive correlation between congeners with low to medium chlorination and the relative proportion of CD19 positive B-cells among lymphocytes, as well as a negative correlation of PCB114 with serum IgM, and of PCB 28 with suppressor T-cell and NK-cell numbers. Congeners with a high degree of chlorination, in particular PCB157 and 189, were positively associated with expression of the activation marker CD25 on T-cells in the cohort of the second time point. No associations between PCB levels and IFN-y production by T-cells and killing by NK-cells were found. In conclusion, there were several effects on the cellular composition of adaptive immunity, affecting both T- and B-cells. However, the values were not generally outside the reference ranges for healthy adult individuals and did not indicate overt functional immunodeficiency, even in subjects with the uppermost PCB burden.

  16. Population trends of smallmouth bass in the upper Colorado River basin with an evaluation of removal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, André R.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Hawkins, John A.; Bestgen, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    , environmental effects were also responsible for significant declines in smallmouth bass densities in some reaches. Abundant year classes of young smallmouth bass produced in low flow and warm years such as 2007 have potential to overwhelm removal efforts, and the year class persists for one or more years. Nonetheless, it appears that increased electrofishing removal efforts from 2007 to 2011 resulted in sustained reductions in density of smallmouth bass sub-adults and adults throughout the upper basin despite environmental conditions that favored smallmouth bass reproduction in some years (e.g. 2007 and 2009), subsequent recruitment into sub-adult and adult age classes, and movement of smallmouth bass which previously (prior to increases in electrofishing removal efforts) allowed densities to recover in some reaches.We recommend that removal efforts continue in most areas of the upper basin but that the Recovery Program consider allocating effort based on population trends and suspected areas of highest smallmouth bass reproduction. For instance, reproduction, recruitment, and movement of smallmouth bass allowed densities to recover in some reaches, particularly Little Yampa Canyon. Smallmouth bass population recovery implies that areas such as Little Yampa Canyon itself or adjacent reaches (especially upstream), may provide important habitat for age-0 production. We recommend continued assessment of smallmouth bass populations in reaches where reproduction or age-1 nurseries are suspected, such as Little Yampa Canyon and the adjacent upstream reach. It may also be necessary to expand monitoring to areas surrounding suspected sources of smallmouth bass reproduction and increase electrofishing removal effort in these reaches.

  17. Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

    2012-07-01

    Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

  18. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART from 2002 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Biedenbach

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs, were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086 and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705 were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  19. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART) from 2002 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrissey, Ian; Hackel, Meredith; Badal, Robert; Bouchillon, Sam; Hawser, Stephen; Biedenbach, Douglas

    2013-11-01

    Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART) has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs), were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086) and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705) were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  20. Trends and Determinants of Prescription Drug Use during Pregnancy and Postpartum in British Columbia, 2002-2011: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Smolina

    Full Text Available To describe trends, patterns, and determinants of prescription drug use during pregnancy and postpartum.This is a retrospective, population-based study of all women who gave birth between January 2002 and 31 December 2011 in British Columbia, Canada. Study population consisted of 225,973 women who had 322,219 pregnancies. We examined administrative datasets containing person-specific information on filled prescriptions, hospitalizations, and medical services. Main outcome measures were filled prescriptions during pregnancy and postpartum. We used logistic regressions to examine associations between prescription drug use and maternal characteristics.Approximately two thirds of women filled a prescription during pregnancy, increasing from 60% in 2002 to 66% in 2011. The proportion of pregnant women using medicines in all three trimesters of pregnancy increased from 20% in 2002 to 27% in 2011. Use of four or more different types of prescription drug during at least one trimester increased from 8.4% in 2002 to 11.7% in 2011. Higher BMI, smoking during pregnancy, age under 25, carrying multiples, and being diagnosed with a chronic condition all significantly increased the odds of prescription drug use during pregnancy.The observed increase in the number of prescriptions and number of different drugs being dispensed suggests a trend in prescribing practices with potentially important implications for mothers, their neonates, and caregivers. Monitoring of prescribing practices and further research into the safety of most commonly prescribed medications is crucial in better understanding risks and benefits to the fetus and the mother.

  1. Trends in diet quality among adolescents, adults and older adults: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha Caesar de Andrade, PhD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to monitor diet quality and associated factors in adolescents, adults and older adults from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based study involving 2376 individuals surveyed in 2003, and 1662 individuals in 2008 (Health Survey of São Paulo, ISA-Capital. Participants were of both sexes and aged 12 to 19 years old (adolescents, 20 to 59 years old (adults and 60 years old or over (older adults. Food intake was assessed using the 24-h dietary recall method while diet quality was determined by the Brazilian Healthy Eating Index (BHEI-R. The prevalence of descriptive variables for 2003 and 2008 was compared adopting a confidence interval of 95%. The means of total BHEI-R score and its components for 2003 and 2008 were compared for each age group. Associations between the BHEI-R and independent variables were evaluated for each survey year using multiple linear regression analysis. Results showed that the mean BHEI-R increased (54.9 vs. 56.4 points over the five-year period. However, the age group evaluation showed a deterioration in diet quality of adolescents, influenced by a decrease in scores for dark-green and orange vegetables and legumes, total grains, oils and SoFAAS (solid fat, alcohol and added sugar components. In the 2008 survey, adults had a higher BHEI-R score, by 6.1 points on average, compared to adolescents. Compared to older adults, this difference was 10.7 points. The diet quality remains a concern, especially among adolescents, that had the worst results compared to the other age groups.

  2. Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS) in Southwestern Border States: Examining Trends, Population Correlates, and Implications for Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussaini, Khaleel S; Garcia Saavedra, Luigi F

    2018-03-23

    Introduction Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) is withdrawal syndrome in newborns following birth and is primarily caused by maternal drug use during pregnancy. This study examines trends, population correlates, and policy implications of NAS in two Southwest border states. Materials and Methods A cross-sectional analysis of Hospital Inpatient Discharge Data (HIDD) was utilized to examine the incidence of NAS in the Southwest border states of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM). All inpatient hospital births in AZ and NM from January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2013 with ICD9-CM codes for NAS (779.5), cocaine (760.72), or narcotics (760.75) were extracted. Results During 2008-2013 there were 1472 NAS cases in AZ and 888 in NM. The overall NAS rate during this period was 2.83 per 1000 births (95% CI 2.68-2.97) in AZ and 5.31 (95% CI 4.96-5.66) in NM. NAS rates increased 157% in AZ and 174% in NM. NAS newborns were more likely to have low birth weight, have respiratory distress, more likely to have feeding difficulties, and more likely to be on state Medicaid insurance. AZ border region (border with Mexico) had NAS rates significantly higher than the state rate (4.06 per 1000 births [95% CI 3.68-4.44] vs. 2.83 [95% CI 2.68-2.97], respectively). In NM, the border region rate (2.09 per 1000 births [95% CI 1.48-2.69]) was significantly lower than the state rate (5.31 [95% CI 4.96-5.66]). Conclusions Despite a dramatic increase in the incidence of NAS in the U.S. and, in particular, the Southwest border states of AZ and NM, there is still scant research on the overall incidence of NAS, its assessment in the southwest border, and associated long-term outcomes. The Healthy Border (HB) 2020 binational initiative of the U.S.-Mexico Border Health Commission is an initiative that addresses several public health priorities that not only include chronic and degenerative diseases, infectious diseases, injury prevention, maternal and child health but also mental health and

  3. Trends in adverse maternal outcomes during childbirth: a population-based study of severe maternal morbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Ford, Jane B; Algert, Charles S; Bell, Jane C; Simpson, Judy M; Morris, Jonathan M

    2009-02-25

    Maternal mortality is too rare in high income countries to be used as a marker of the quality of maternity care. Consequently severe maternal morbidity has been suggested as a better indicator. Using the maternal morbidity outcome indicator (MMOI) developed and validated for use in routinely collected population health data, we aimed to determine trends in severe adverse maternal outcomes during the birth admission and in particular to examine the contribution of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH). We applied the MMOI to the linked birth-hospital discharge records for all women who gave birth in New South Wales, Australia from 1999 to 2004 and determined rates of severe adverse maternal outcomes. We used frequency distributions and contingency table analyses to examine the association between adverse outcomes and maternal, pregnancy and birth characteristics, among all women and among only those with PPH. Using logistic regression, we modelled the effects of these characteristics on adverse maternal outcomes. The impact of adverse outcomes on duration of hospital admission was also examined. Of 500,603 women with linked birth and hospital records, 6242 (12.5 per 1,000) suffered an adverse outcome, including 22 who died. The rate of adverse maternal outcomes increased from 11.5 in 1999 to 13.8 per 1000 deliveries in 2004, an annual increase of 3.8% (95%CI 2.3-5.3%). This increase occurred almost entirely among women with a PPH. Changes in pregnancy and birth factors during the study period did not account for increases in adverse outcomes either overall, or among the subgroup of women with PPH. Among women with severe adverse outcomes there was a 12% decrease in hospital days over the study period, whereas women with no severe adverse outcome occupied 23% fewer hospital days in 2004 than in 1999. Severe adverse maternal outcomes associated with childbirth have increased in Australia and the increase was entirely among women who experienced a PPH. Reducing or stabilising

  4. Trends in adverse maternal outcomes during childbirth: a population-based study of severe maternal morbidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Algert Charles S

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Maternal mortality is too rare in high income countries to be used as a marker of the quality of maternity care. Consequently severe maternal morbidity has been suggested as a better indicator. Using the maternal morbidity outcome indicator (MMOI developed and validated for use in routinely collected population health data, we aimed to determine trends in severe adverse maternal outcomes during the birth admission and in particular to examine the contribution of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH. Methods We applied the MMOI to the linked birth-hospital discharge records for all women who gave birth in New South Wales, Australia from 1999 to 2004 and determined rates of severe adverse maternal outcomes. We used frequency distributions and contingency table analyses to examine the association between adverse outcomes and maternal, pregnancy and birth characteristics, among all women and among only those with PPH. Using logistic regression, we modelled the effects of these characteristics on adverse maternal outcomes. The impact of adverse outcomes on duration of hospital admission was also examined. Results Of 500,603 women with linked birth and hospital records, 6242 (12.5 per 1,000 suffered an adverse outcome, including 22 who died. The rate of adverse maternal outcomes increased from 11.5 in 1999 to 13.8 per 1000 deliveries in 2004, an annual increase of 3.8% (95%CI 2.3–5.3%. This increase occurred almost entirely among women with a PPH. Changes in pregnancy and birth factors during the study period did not account for increases in adverse outcomes either overall, or among the subgroup of women with PPH. Among women with severe adverse outcomes there was a 12% decrease in hospital days over the study period, whereas women with no severe adverse outcome occupied 23% fewer hospital days in 2004 than in 1999. Conclusion Severe adverse maternal outcomes associated with childbirth have increased in Australia and the increase was

  5. Following trends in steam sterilizer performance by quantitative monitoring of non-condensable gases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wezel, R.A.C.; van Gastel, A.; de Ranitz, A.; van Doornmalen Gomez Hoyos, J.P.C.M.

    2017-01-01

    Standards require a daily steam penetration test before starting production with a steam sterilizer. In many cases the results of steam penetration tests are not used for improvements or optimization of processes. This study aimed to detect whether trend analysis with an objective and quantifying

  6. Combining Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge: Monitoring Populations for Co-Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Moller

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a combination of traditional ecological knowledge and science to monitor populations can greatly assist co-management for sustainable customary wildlife harvests by indigenous peoples. Case studies from Canada and New Zealand emphasize that, although traditional monitoring methods may often be imprecise and qualitative, they are nevertheless valuable because they are based on observations over long time periods, incorporate large sample sizes, are inexpensive, invite the participation of harvesters as researchers, and sometimes incorporate subtle multivariate cross checks for environmental change. A few simple rules suggested by traditional knowledge may produce good management outcomes consistent with fuzzy logic thinking. Science can sometimes offer better tests of potential causes of population change by research on larger spatial scales, precise quantification, and evaluation of population change where no harvest occurs. However, science is expensive and may not always be trusted or welcomed by customary users of wildlife. Short scientific studies in which traditional monitoring methods are calibrated against population abundance could make it possible to mesh traditional ecological knowledge with scientific inferences of prey population dynamics. This paper analyzes the traditional monitoring techniques of catch per unit effort and body condition. Combining scientific and traditional monitoring methods can not only build partnership and community consensus, but also, and more importantly, allow indigenous wildlife users to critically evaluate scientific predictions on their own terms and test sustainability using their own forms of adaptive management.

  7. Application of information technologies to water monitoring: Features and sectoral trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Croci, E; Pesaro, G [Bocconi Univ., Milan (Italy). Ist. di Economia delle Fonti di Energia

    1991-04-01

    Social attention to water pollution is increasing. Because of the complexity of the natural, institutional, technological and economical aspects involved, an efficient policy for prevention and intervention needs to consider many variables. A good knowledge of the environmental situation and evolution is the basis for any action by both public and private acting agencies. Water monitoring allows the collection and elaboration of information through a process which goes from raw environmental data to public decisions. Monitoring can also present business opportunities for firms. The large Italian and multinational companies are entering the market and making agreements with small engineering firms with strong technological capabilities. In particular, the elaboration and automation of monitoring procedures represent important tendencies towards the improvement of environmental services. The institutional framework is very relevant in the definition of public and private choices, links and opportunities. A systematic approach to water monitoring can provide a better support to public decision makers.

  8. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    OpenAIRE

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. METHODS: National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. RESULTS: C...

  9. Current Trends in Neuromuscular Blockade, Management, and Monitoring amongst Singaporean Anaesthetists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy H. Teoh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This survey aimed to investigate the attitudes/practice pertaining the use, management, and monitoring of neuromuscular blockade amongst Singaporean anaesthetists. Methods. All specialist accredited anaesthetists registered with the Singapore Medical Council were invited to complete an anonymous online survey. Results. The response rate was 39.5%. Neuromuscular monitoring (NM was used routinely by only 13.1% despite the widespread availability of monitors. 82% stated residual NMB (RNMB was a significant risk factor for patient outcome, but only 24% believed NMB monitoring should be compulsory in all paralyzed patients. 63.6% of anaesthetists estimated the risk of RNMB in their own institutions to be 50% said such benefits may be able to offset the associated costs. Conclusions. There is a significant need for reeducation about RNMB, studies on local RNMB incidences, and strengthening of current monitoring practices and guidelines. Strategies are discussed. As NM monitors appear widely available and reversal of NMB standard practice, it is hopeful that Singaporean anaesthetists will change and strive for evidence-based best clinical practice to enhance patient safety.

  10. Population trends and current status of the endangered Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocaspana Rafel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The status of Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis was assessed in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage on the basis of its distribution and abundance from 2001 to 2016. Population trends showed a progressive reduction in range extension and density, exacerbated by a severe spate occurred in 2013. However, C. hispaniolensis was resilient to this natural disturbance by compensating for mortality with increasing recruitment. Both occurrence and density of Pyrenean sculpin showed a positive correlation with coarse substrates. Riverine habitat deterioration, mainly channelization, presence of dams and flow regulation are the main factors threatening sculpin populations. Several management measures are proposed.

  11. Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  12. Monitoring, imperfect detection, and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rout, Tracy M; Baker, Christopher M; Huxtable, Stewart; Wintle, Brendan A

    2018-04-01

    Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease-free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD-affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch-effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease-free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May-June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost-effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease-free. © 2017 Society for

  13. Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

    2012-08-01

    Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

  14. Optimizing the duration of point counts for monitoring trends in bird populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jared Verner

    1988-01-01

    Minute-by-minute analysis of point counts of birds in mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra National Forest, central California, showed that cumulative counts of species and individuals increased in a curvilinear fashion but did not reach asymptotes after 10 minutes of counting. Comparison of the expected number of individuals counted per hour with various combinations...

  15. Decadal trends in the diurnal variation of galactic cosmic rays observed using neutron monitor data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Simon [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.; Owens, Mathew; Lockwood, Mike [Reading Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology; Owen, Chris [Univ. College London, Dorking (United Kingdom). Mullard Space Science Lab.

    2017-10-01

    The diurnal variation (DV) in galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is a widely observed phenomenon in neutron monitor data. The background variation considered primarily in this study is due to the balance between the convection of energetic particles away from the Sun and the inward diffusion of energetic particles along magnetic field lines. However, there are also times of enhanced DV following geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions. In this study we investigate changes in the DV over four solar cycles using ground-based neutron monitors at different magnetic latitudes and longitudes at Earth. We divide all of the hourly neutron monitor data into magnetic polarity cycles to investigate cycle-to-cycle variations in the phase and amplitude of the DV. The results show, in general, a similarity between each of the A<0 cycles and A>0 cycles, but with a phase change between the two. To investigate this further, we split the neutron monitor data by solar magnetic polarity between times when the dominant polarity was either directed outward (positive) or inward (negative) at the northern solar pole. We find that the maxima and minima of the DV changes by, typically, 1-2 h between the two polarity states for all non-polar neutron monitors. This difference between cycles becomes even larger in amplitude and phase with the removal of periods with enhanced DV caused by solar wind transients. The time difference between polarity cycles is found to vary in a 22-year cycle for both the maximum and minimum times of the DV. The times of the maximum and minimum in the DV do not always vary in the same manner between A>0 and A<0 polarity cycles, suggesting a slight change in the anisotropy vector of GCRs arriving at Earth between polarity cycles. Polar neutron monitors show differences in phase between polarity cycles which have asymptotic directions at mid-to-high latitudes. All neutron monitors show changes in the amplitude of the

  16. Safety Evaluation of an Automated Remote Monitoring System for Heart Failure in an Urban, Indigent Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross-Schulman, Sandra; Sklaroff, Laura Myerchin; Hertz, Crystal Coyazo; Guterman, Jeffrey J

    2017-12-01

    Heart Failure (HF) is the most expensive preventable condition, regardless of patient ethnicity, race, socioeconomic status, sex, and insurance status. Remote telemonitoring with timely outpatient care can significantly reduce avoidable HF hospitalizations. Human outreach, the traditional method used for remote monitoring, is effective but costly. Automated systems can potentially provide positive clinical, fiscal, and satisfaction outcomes in chronic disease monitoring. The authors implemented a telephonic HF automated remote monitoring system that utilizes deterministic decision tree logic to identify patients who are at risk of clinical decompensation. This safety study evaluated the degree of clinical concordance between the automated system and traditional human monitoring. This study focused on a broad underserved population and demonstrated a safe, reliable, and inexpensive method of monitoring patients with HF.

  17. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    are treated without income associated treatment differences. In conclusion: Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated...

  18. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

  19. Trends and Implications of Proposed Changes to the "DSM-5" for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raissa; Prosek, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The revision process for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) has increased consciousness for the role of diagnosis in counseling. In this article, the authors discuss 3 trends of the proposed changes: the influence of the medical model, the attention to…

  20. Trends in State and Federal land use law relating to inventories, monitoring and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, C. M.

    1974-01-01

    A description and analysis of selected State and Federal laws relating to land use inventories, monitoring, and evaluation is presented. Legal requirements and information systems for land use in the following states are reviewed: Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia.

  1. Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dulai, H.; Kameník, Jan; Waters, C. A.; Kennedy, J.; Babinec, J.; Jolly, J.; Williamson, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 307, č. 3 (2016), s. 1865-1870 ISSN 0236-5731. [10th International Conference on Methods and Applications of Radioanalytical Chemistry (MARC). Kailua Kona, 12.04.2015-17.04.2015] Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : submarine groundwater discharge * long-term SGD monitoring * underwater gammaspectrometry Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2016

  2. Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang Mai Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. PMID:28612595

  3. Genetic monitoring of experimental Drosophila populations exposed to X-radiation and treated with melanin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosseh, I.B.; Savchenko, V.K.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1985-01-01

    Monitoring of laboratory populations of Drosophila over four years has demonstrated that X radiation of 0.25 C/kg, delivered during the life span of each generation, causes a decrease of 20% and 30%, on the average, in the number of individuals in 1-55 generations and 45-55 generations, respectively. The antimutagen, melanin, added to a nutrient medium has no effect on the number of individuals in populations

  4. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-02-01

    Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. Child sexual abuse involving physical contact was reported by 20% of women and 16% of men. In adulthood, figures were 20% and 10% for women and men, respectively. Prevalence of any form of sexual violence across the lifespan was 42% (women) and 38% (men). Analysis by year of birth indicated a curvilinear pattern for child sexual abuse with lower prevalence in the oldest and youngest participants. Sexual violence in young adulthood showed a linear pattern with higher prevalence in the youngest participants. The trend of lower rates of experience of child sexual abuse in younger adults in the sample is in keeping with findings from other countries. The trend of higher rates of adult sexual violence in younger adults is worrying, particularly since the same participants reported less experience of child sexual abuse than the preceding generations. There is a paucity of international data addressing the issue of cohort differences in exposure to sexual violence. Within-study analysis, and follow-up studies designed to maximize replicability, are needed to inform discussion about societal trends in different types of sexual violence.

  5. Development and evaluation of a new method for sampling and monitoring the symphylid population in pineapple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler, Alain; Gaude, Jean-Marie; Marie-Alphonsine, Paul-Alex; Vinatier, Fabrice; Dole, Bernard; Govindin, Jean-Claude; Fournier, Patrick; Queneherve, Patrick

    2011-09-01

    Symphylids (Hanseniella sp.) are polyphagous soilborne parasites. Today, symphylid populations on pineapple are monitored by observing root symptoms and the presence of symphylids at the bottom of basal leaves. The authors developed a reliable method with a bait and trap device to monitor symphylid populations in pineapple or fallow crops. The spatial distribution of the symphylid populations was evaluated using the variance/mean ratios and spatial analyses based on Moran's and Geary's indices. The method has been tested to monitor symphylid populations at different developmental stages of pineapple. Adding potato baits to the soil samples increased the trapping efficiency of symphylids when compared with 'soil only' and 'bait only' methods. The handling of the samples is also facilitated by the new device. Results showed that the vertical distribution of symphylids may be uniform deeply inside the soil profile under pineapple, up to 50 cm. Results showed that symphylid populations are highly aggregated, showing a spot area about 4-6 m wide for their development. The new method allows better and easier evaluation of symphylid populations. It may be very useful in the evaluation of new IPM methods to control symphylids under pineapple. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. Population trends and live birth rates associated with common ART treatment strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Georgina M; Wand, Handan; Macaldowie, Alan; Chapman, Michael G; Farquhar, Cynthia M; Bowman, Mark; Molloy, David; Ledger, William

    2016-11-01

    Have ART live birth rates improved in Australia over the last 12 years? There were striking improvements in per-cycle live birth rates observed for frozen/thaw embryo transfers, blastocyst transfer and single embryo transfer (SET), while live birth rates following ICSI were lower than IVF for non-male factor infertility in most years. ART and associated techniques have become the predominant treatment of infertility over the past 30 years in most developed countries. However, there are differences in ART laboratory and clinical practices, and success rates worldwide. Australia has one of the highest ART utilization rates and lowest multiple birth rates in the world, thus providing a unique setting to investigate the contribution of common ART strategies in an unrestricted population of patients to ART success rates. A retrospective cohort study of 585 065 ART treatment cycles performed in Australia between 2002 and 2013 using the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database (ANZARD). An unrestricted population of all women who underwent autologous ART treatment between 2002 and 2013. Visual descriptive analysis was used to assess the trends in ART procedures by the calendar years. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of a live birth for four common ART techniques were calculated after controlling for important confounders including female age, infertility diagnosis, stage of the embryo (blastocyst versus cleavage stage), type of embryo (fresh versus thawed), fertilization method (IVF versus ICSI) and number of embryos transferred (SET versus multiple embryos). The overall live birth rate per embryo transfer increased from 19.2% in 2002 to 23.3% in 2013 (21.9-24.3% for fresh embryo transfers and 14.6-23.3% for frozen/thaw embryo transfers). This occurred concurrently with an increase in SET from 29.7% to 78.9%, and an increase in the average age of women undergoing treatment from 35.0 to 35.9 years. Individuals who had a frozen/thaw embryo transfer cycle in 2002

  7. THE MODERN TRENDS IN REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR OF THE FEMALE POPULATION IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валентина Сергеевна Гладкая

    2017-02-01

    It puts forward the proposal to establish regional centers provide comprehensive preventive, rehabilitative, recreational, informational and educational work and social-legal counseling of the female population.

  8. Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znaor, Ariana; Laversanne, Mathieu; Bray, Freddie

    2017-09-01

    The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. © 2017 UICC.

  9. Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program, Entiat River Status and Trend Snorkel Surveys and Rotary Smolt Trap Operations in Nason Creek, March 2007 through March 2008.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, Matthew; Jorgensen, John; Murdock, Keely

    2008-03-10

    The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP-BPA project No.2003-0017) has been created as a cost effective means of developing protocols and new technologies, novel indicators, sample designs, analytical, data management and communication tools and skills, and restoration experiments that support the development of a region-wide Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) program to assess the status of anadromous salmonid populations, their tributary habitat and restoration and management actions. The most straightforward approach to developing a regional-scale monitoring and evaluation program would be to increase standardization among status and trend monitoring programs. However, the diversity of species and their habitat, as well as the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding indicators, metrics, and data interpretation methods, requires the testing of multiple approaches. Thus, the approach ISEMP has adopted is to develop a broad template that may differ in the details among subbasins, but one that will ultimately lead to the formation of a unified RME process for the management of anadromous salmonid populations and habitat across the Columbia River Basin. ISEMP has been initiated in three pilot subbasins, the Wenatchee/Entiat, John Day, and Salmon. To balance replicating experimental approaches with the goal of developing monitoring and evaluation tools that apply as broadly as possible across the Pacific Northwest, these subbasins were chosen as representative of a wide range of potential challenges and conditions, e.g., differing fish species composition and life histories, ecoregions, institutional settings, and existing data. ISEMP has constructed a framework that builds on current status and trend monitoring infrastructures in these pilot subbasins, but challenges current programs by testing alternative monitoring approaches. In addition, the ISEMP is: (1) Collecting information over a hierarchy of spatial scales, allowing for a

  10. Current state and trends of access to sanitation in Ethiopia and the need to revise indicators to monitor progress in the Post-2015 era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Abebe; Hailu, Tamene; Faris, Kebede; Kloos, Helmut

    2015-05-02

    Investigating the current level and trends of access and identifying the underlying challenges to sanitation system development will be useful in determining directions developing countries are heading as they plan to promote sustainable development goals (post 2015 agenda). This research investigates the status and trends of access to improved sanitation coverage (ISC) in relation to the MDG target in Ethiopia with the aim of identifying prevailing constraints and suggesting the way forward in the post-MDG era. We examined data from a nationwide inventory conducted in accordance with the sanitation ladder at the national level and from a household survey in randomly selected urban slums in Addis Ababa. The inventory data were analyzed and interpreted using the conceptual model of the sanitation ladder. We used administrative reports and survey results to plot the time trend of the ISC. The data from the nationwide inventory of sanitation facilities, which are presented along the sanitation ladder reveal that more than half of the Ethiopian population (52.1%) still used unimproved sanitation facilities in 2014. The majority (35.6%) practiced open defecation, implying that the country is far from the MDG target for access to improved sanitation (56%). Most people in urban slums (88.6%) used unimproved sanitation facilities, indicating that the urban poor did not receive adequate sanitation services. Trend analysis shows that access to ISC has increased, but Central Statistical Authority (CSA) data reveal a decline. This discrepancy is due to differences in data collection methods and tools. Dry pit latrines are the most widely used toilet facilities in Ethiopia, accounting for about 97.5% of the ISC. The sanitation coverage is far from the MDG target and the majority of the population, mainly the urban poor, are living in a polluted environment, exposed to water and sanitation-related diseases. The sanitation coverage estimates might be even lower if proper

  11. New insights into survival trend analyses in cancer population-based studies: the SUDCAN methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Remontet, Laurent; Iwaz, Jean; Roche, Laurent

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the SUDCAN study was to compare, for 15 cancer sites, the trends in net survival and excess mortality rates from cancer 5 years after diagnosis between six European Latin countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland). The data were extracted from the EUROCARE-5 database. The study period ranged from 6 (Portugal, 2000-2005) to 18 years (Switzerland, 1989-2007). Trend analyses were carried out separately for each country and cancer site; the number of cases ranged from 1500 to 104 000 cases. We developed an original flexible excess rate modelling strategy that accounts for the continuous effects of age, year of diagnosis, time since diagnosis and their interactions. Nineteen models were constructed; they differed in the modelling of the effect of the year of diagnosis in terms of linearity, proportionality and interaction with age. The final model was chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. The fit was assessed graphically by comparing model estimates versus nonparametric (Pohar-Perme) net survival estimates. Out of the 90 analyses carried out, the effect of the year of diagnosis on the excess mortality rate depended on age in 61 and was nonproportional in 64; it was nonlinear in 27 out of the 75 analyses where this effect was considered. The model fit was overall satisfactory. We analysed successfully 15 cancer sites in six countries. The refined methodology proved necessary for detailed trend analyses. It is hoped that three-dimensional parametric modelling will be used more widely in net survival trend studies as it has major advantages over stratified analyses.

  12. Analysis of the overweight and obesity trend in the Peruvian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tarqui-Mamani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overweight and obesity constitute a public health problem worldwide and also in Peru, and its study is necessary. The aim was to analyze the tendency of overweight and obesity according to age, sex and poverty. Material and methods: A trend study that analyzed overweight and obesity in 175,984 Peruvians surveyed between 2007 and 2014. The samples were representative and probabilistic of Peruvian households. Results: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased in all age groups studied (p<0.001, except for the group under 5 years of age. In men, the tendency of overweight was to increase (p<0.001 except in children. In women, the tendency was to increase in all groups (p<0.001 except the under 5 years of age and the group between 20-29 years of age. In people living in extreme poverty, the tendency of overweight was to increase in the young, adult and elderly (p<0.001. In people living in poverty, the tendency of the overweight was to increase (p<0.01, except in children of 5-9 years of age. The trend of obesity in men and women was increased (p<0.001, except in children under 5 years of age. In women, the exception was also in older adults. Analyzing poverty it was observed that in people living in extreme poverty the tendency of obesity was to increase in young people and adults (p<0.01. In people living in poverty, the tendency of obesity was to increase in adolescents, youth and adults (p<0.01. Conclusions: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased, except in children under 5 years of age, with predominance in men and people living in poverty.

  13. Farm Population Trends and Farm Characteristics. Rural Development Research Report No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Vera J.

    While total farm population is declining, the number of people living on the farms which produce the bulk of the nation's food and fiber is increasing. The 1970-75 total farm population decline was 13 percent, but the number of people living on farms with annual sales greater than $40,000 increased 76 percent. Such farms account for about 80…

  14. Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

    2017-01-01

    Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

  15. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

  16. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  17. Incidence Trend for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the North Tunisian Population, 1998-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhassine, Adel; Khadhra, Hajer Ben; Khiari, Houyem; Hsairi, Mohamed; Elgaaied, Amel Benammar

    2016-01-01

    In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

  18. Using centralized laboratory data to monitor trends in herpes simplex virus type 1 and 2 infection in British Columbia and the changing etiology of genital herpes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Mark; Li, Xuan; Petric, Martin; Krajden, Mel; Isaac-Renton, Judith L; Ogilvie, Gina; Rekart, Michael L

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the regional epidemiology of genital Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) infections is important for clinical and public health practice, due to the increasing availability of type-specific serologic testing in Canada and the contribution of genital HSV-2 infection to ongoing HIV transmission. We used centralized laboratory data to describe trends in viral identifications of genital HSV in BC and assess the utility of these data for ongoing population surveillance. Records of viral identifications (1997-2005) were extracted from the Provincial Public Health Microbiology & Reference Laboratory database. Classification as genital or other site was based on documented specimen site. We conducted a descriptive analysis of trends over time, and calculated odds of HSV-1 infection among individuals with genital herpes. Of 48,183 viral identifications, 56.8% were genital, 10.0% were peri-oral and 9.1% cutaneous; site was unknown for 22.9%. Among genital identifications, HSV-1 infection was more likely in females, younger age groups, and later time periods. The proportion of genital herpes due to HSV-1 increased over time from 31.4% to 42.8% in BC. Our analysis of population-level laboratory data demonstrates that the proportion of genital herpes due to HSV-1 is increasing over time in BC, particularly among women and younger age groups; this has implications for clinical practice including the interpretation of type-specific serology. Provincial viral identification data are useful for monitoring the distribution of genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections over time. Improving clinical documentation of specimen site would improve the utility of these data.

  19. Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

    2016-05-31

    Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

  20. [TRENDS IN HEALTH OF THE POPULATION IN THE AREA OF THE TENGIZ FIELD].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenessaryiev, U I; Yerzhanova, A E; Kenessary, D U; Amrin, M K; Dosmukhametov, A T; Baimukhamedov, A A

    2015-01-01

    At the present the Caspian oil and gas field became extremely important for the economy of Kazakhstan and it has entered a qualitatively new stage of its development. In connection with the intensive development of these fields the attention of both scientists and health practitioners is attracted by problems of populations' health. In the article there are presented data of a study of the quality of main objects of environment, health condition, demographic indices of and morbidity rate of the population of the Zhylyoi district of the Atyrau region. The population resides in the region of influence of the Tengiz oil and gas field. The level of mortality in Zhylyoi for the periodfrom 2006 to 2013 was establishe to decline, as birth rate rather increased. Indices of the population's structure retain the tendency to the progressive type, possibly in relation with urbanization and industrial migration of population, that increased in last years. The district mortality rates are below national, regional and urban values. Natural population growth in Zhylyoi has increased by 27.6%. The analysis of primary morbidity of the population of the Zhylyoi district in dynamics from 2006 to 2013 shows a some decrease. In the structure of the morbidity there was noted a decrease in the proportion of diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, respiratory diseases, digestive organs. However, the proportion of blood diseases, diseases of the hematopoietic system and blood flow has increased. Alongside this in the region there is clearly discernible the scarcity of doctors, qualified nurses and beds.

  1. Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

    2014-04-01

    Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (pobesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  2. Cadmium-related mortality and long-term secular trends in the cadmium body burden of an environmentally exposed population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrot, Tim S; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A; Staessen, Jan A

    2008-12-01

    Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. From 1985-1989 to 1991-1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p fashion without threshold.

  3. Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dulai, Henrietta; Waters, Ch.A.; Kennedy, Joseph; Kamenik, Jan; Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Rez; Babinec, James; Jolly, James; Williamson, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We developed a fully autonomous underwater gamma-spectrometer for long-term coastal submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) monitoring. The instrument represents a significant improvement over previous submarine gamma-spectrometers in that it is very robust, has high sensitivity allowing high temporal resolution, and is completely autonomous. Here we describe the technical parameters of the new instrument as well as data collected over its 9-month deployment in Kiholo Bay, HI, USA. We also present methods to convert the measured activities to SGD rates. In Kiholo Bay, the derived SGD matched previous estimates but in addition it revealed previously undocumented short- and long-term patterns in SGD. (author)

  4. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  5. Population trends and survival of nesting green sea turtles Chelonia mydas on Aves Island, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Cruz, Marco A.; Lampo, Margarita; Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Solé, Genaro; Rodriguez-Clark, Kathryn M.

    2015-01-01

    Long-term demographic data are valuable for assessing the effect of anthropogenic impacts on endangered species and evaluating recovery programs. Using a 2-state open robust design model, we analyzed mark-recapture data from green turtles Chelonia mydas sighted between 1979 and 2009 on Aves Island, Venezuela, a rookery heavily impacted by human activities before it was declared a wildlife refuge in 1972. Based on the encounter histories of 7689 nesting females, we estimated the abundance, annual survival, and remigration intervals for this population. Female survival varied from 0.14-0.91, with a mean of 0.79, which is low compared to survival of other populations from the Caribbean (mean = 0.84) and Australia (mean = 0.95), even though we partially corrected for tag loss, which is known to negatively bias survival estimates. This supports prior suggestions that Caribbean populations in general, and the Aves Island population in particular, may be more strongly impacted than populations elsewhere. It is likely that nesters from this rookery are extracted while foraging in remote feeding grounds where hunting still occurs. Despite its relatively low survival, the nesting population at Aves Island increased during the past 30 years from approx. 500 to >1000 nesting females in 2009. Thus, this population, like others in the Caribbean and the Atlantic, seems to be slowly recovering following protective management. Although these findings support the importance of long-term conservation programs aimed at protecting nesting grounds, they also highlight the need to extend management actions to foraging grounds where human activities may still impact green turtle populations.

  6. A global audit of the status and trends of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere goose populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Leafloor, James O.

    2018-01-01

    This report attempts to review the abundance, status and distribution of natural wild goose populations in the northern hemisphere. The report comprises three parts that 1) summarise key findings from the study and the methodology and analysis applied; 2) contain the individual accounts for each of the 68 populations included in this report; and 3) provide the datasets compiled for this study which will be made accessible on the Arctic Biodiversity Data Service.

  7. Long Wavelength SAR Backscatter Modelling Trends as a Consequence of the Emergent Properties of Tree Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Brolly

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study describes the novel use of a macroecological plant and forest structure model in conjunction with a Radiative Transfer (RT model to better understand interactions between microwaves and forest canopies. Trends predicted by the RT model, resulting from interactions with mixed age, mono and multi species forests, are analysed in comparison to those predicted using a simplistic structure based scattering model. This model relates backscatter to scatterer cross sectional or volume specifications, dependent on the size. The Spatially Explicit Reiterative Algorithm (SERA model is used to provide a widely varied tree size distribution while maintaining allometric consistency to produce a natural-like forest representation. The RT model is parameterised using structural information from SERA and microwave backscatter simulations are used to analyse the impact of changes to the forest stand. Results show that the slope of the saturation curve observed in the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR backscatter-biomass relationship is sensitive to thinning and therefore forest basal area. Due to similarities displayed between the results of the RT and simplistic model, it is determined that forest SAR backscatter behaviour at long microwave wavelengths may be described generally using equations related to total stem volume and basal area. The nature of these equations is such that they describe saturating behaviour of forests in the absence of attenuation in comparable fashion to the trends exhibited using the RT model. Both modelled backscatter trends predict a   relationship to forest basal area from an early age when forest volume is increasing. When this is not the case, it is assumed to be a result of attenuation of the dominant stem-ground interaction due to the presence of excessive numbers of stems. This work shows how forest growth models can be successfully incorporated into existing independent scattering models and reveals, through the RT

  8. Northern fulmars as biological monitors of trends of plastic pollution in the eastern North Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery-Gomm, Stephanie; O'Hara, Patrick D; Kleine, Lydia; Bowes, Victoria; Wilson, Laurie K; Barry, Karen L

    2012-09-01

    Marine plastic debris is a global issue, which highlights the need for internationally standardized methods of monitoring plastic pollution. The stomach contents of beached northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) have proven a cost-effective biomonitor in Europe. However, recent information on northern fulmar plastic ingestion is lacking in the North Pacific. We quantified the stomach contents of 67 fulmars from beaches in the eastern North Pacific in 2009-2010 and found that 92.5% of fulmars had ingested an average of 36.8 pieces, or 0.385 g of plastic. Plastic ingestion in these fulmars is among the highest recorded globally. Compared to earlier studies in the North Pacific, our findings indicate an increase in plastic ingestion over the past 40 years. This study substantiates the use of northern fulmar as biomonitors of plastic pollution in the North Pacific and suggests that the high levels of plastic pollution in this region warrant further monitoring. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Can we monitor heart attack in the troponin era: evidence from a population-based cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rankin Jamie M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Troponins (highly sensitive biomarkers of myocardial damage increase counts of myocardial infarction (MI in clinical practice, but their impact on trends in admission rates for MI in National statistics is uncertain. Methods Cases coded as MI or other cardiac diagnoses in the Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (MI-HMDC in Western Australia in 1998 and 2003 were classified using revised criteria for MI developed by an International panel convened by the American Heart Association (AHA criteria using information on symptoms, ECGs and cardiac biomarkers abstracted from samples of medical notes. Age-sex standardized rates of MI-HMDC were compared with rates of MI based on AHA criteria including troponins (MI-AHA or traditional biomarkers only (MI-AHAck. Results Between 1998 and 2003, rates of MI-HMDC decreased by 3.5% whereas rates of MI-AHA increased by 17%, a difference largely due to increased false-negative cases in the HMDC associated with marked increased use of troponin tests in cardiac admissions generally, and progressively lower test thresholds. In contrast, rates of MI-AHAck declined by 18%. Conclusions Increasing misclassification of MI-AHA by the HMDC may be due to reluctance by clinicians to diagnose MI based on relatively small increases in troponin levels. These influences are likely to continue. Monitoring MI using AHA criteria will require calibration of commercially available troponin tests and agreement on lower diagnostic thresholds for epidemiological studies. Declining rates of MI-AHAck are consistent with long-standing trends in MI in Western Australia, suggesting that neither MI-HMDC nor MI-AHA reflect the true underlying population trends in MI.

  10. Pathways, levels and trends of population exposure after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balonov, M.; Jacob, P.; Likhtarev, D.; Minenko, V.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper main regularities of the long-term exposure of the population of former USSR after the Chernobyl accident are described. Influence of some natural, human and social factors on the forming of external and internal dose in the rural and urban population was studied in the most contaminated regions of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine during 1986-1994. Radioecological processes of I, Cs and Sr nuclides migration in biosphere influencing the processes of population dose formation are considered. The model of their intake in human body was developed and validated by large-scaled measurements of the human body content. The model of external exposure of different population groups was developed and confirmed by the series of individual external dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosemeters. General dosimetric characteristics of the population exposure are given along with some samples of accumulated external and internal effective doses in inhabitants of contaminated areas in 1986-1995. Forecast of the external and internal population effective dose is given for the period of 70 years after the accident

  11. Monitoring Population Evolution in China Using Time-Series DMSP/OLS Nightlight Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisi Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and detailed monitoring of population distribution and evolution is of great significance in formulating a population planning strategy in China. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS nighttime lights time-series (NLT image products offer a good opportunity for detecting the population distribution owing to its high correlation to human activities. However, their detection capability is greatly limited owing to a lack of in-flight calibration. At present, the synergistic use of systematically-corrected NLT products and population spatialization is rarely applied. This work proposed a methodology to improve the application precision and versatility of NLT products, explored a feasible approach to quantitatively spatialize the population to grid units of 1 km × 1 km , and revealed the spatio-temporal characteristics of population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results indicated that, (1 after inter-calibration, geometric, incompatibility and discontinuity corrections, and adjustment based on vegetation information, the incompatibility and discontinuity of NTL products were successfully solved. Accordingly, detailed actual residential areas and luminance differences between the urban core and the peripheral regions could be obtained. (2 The population spatialization method could effectively acquire population information at per km 2 with high accuracy and exhibit more details in the evolution of population distribution. (3 Obvious differences in spatio-temporal characteristics existed in four economic regions, from the aspects of population distribution and dynamics, as well as population-weighted centroids. The eastern region was the most populous with the largest increased magnitude, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. The population-weighted centroids of the eastern, western, and northeastern regions moved along the southwest direction, while the population

  12. Population and harvest trends of big game and small game species: a technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Michael S. Knowles; Stephen J. Brady

    2009-01-01

    This technical document supports the Forest Service's requirement to assess the status of renewable natural resources as mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA). It updates past reports on national and regional trends in population and harvest estimates for species classified as big game and small game. The trends...

  13. Monitoring Population Evolution in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 TO 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, S.; Liu, F.; Zhang, Z.

    2018-04-01

    On behalf of more populous and developed regions in China, urban agglomerations have become important carries loading active economic activities and generous social benefits, and experienced sharper population increase, which results in great threat on local eco-environment construction. Therefore, exact and detailed population monitoring and analyzing, especially on the long sequence and multi frequency, is of great significance. The nighttime light time-series (NLT) products has been proven to be one of the most useful remotely sensed imagery to acquire persons at 1 km × 1 km scales. However, the existed problems, such as light saturation and blooming, greatly limit the accuracy of estimated results. Furthermore, it's difficult to spatialize population at km2 level due to the lack of basic data in non-census years. In order to solve all problems mentioned above, the populous Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area. A new residential extent extraction index (REEI) was proposed to solve light saturation and blooming problems. Population spatialization methods in census and non-census years were applied to acquire detailed population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results showed the feasibility of the proposed methods in this work. During the decade, population was denser in the central PRD and sparser in the eastern, western and northern PRD. The speed of population increase was various in nine cities, but faster in 2000-2005 than 2005-2010.

  14. Major hazard risk indicators for monitoring of trends in the Norwegian offshore petroleum sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinnem, Jan Erik; Aven, Terje; Husebo, Torleif; Seljelid, Jorunn; Tveit, Odd J.

    2006-01-01

    The Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA, formerly Norwegian Petroleum Directorate) took in 1999 the initiative to develop a method in order to assess trends and status for the risk levels in the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry. A method was developed, and a pilot study report was issued in April 2001, covering the period 1996-2000. Annual updates have been performed since then, and the latest report covers the period 1996-2004. The statistical approach is based on recording occurrence of near misses and relevant incidents, performance of barriers and results from risk assessments. Of similar importance is an evaluation of safety culture, motivation, communication and perceived risk. This is covered through the use of social science methods, such as questionnaire surveys and a number of interviews, audit and inspection reports as well as accident and incident investigations. There are also indicators for occupational accidents and occupational illness/-physical working environment factors. The focus is on the major hazard risk components for personnel staying on the offshore installations. An overview of the indicators used to illustrate these risk aspects is presented, followed by a discussion of the analytical approach used for these indicators. Results from the risk assessment for the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the period 1996-2004 are used throughout for illustration, and discussion of challenges

  15. Monitoring of the general population with an installed whole body counter at West Cumberland Hospital, Whitehaven

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boddy, K.; Francis, R.A.; Fenwick, J.D.; McKenzie, A.L.

    1989-03-01

    Body radioactivity in the general public has been measured in 395 volunteers in the Whitehaven area, using a whole-body monitor at West Cumberland Hospital. Between October 1986 and October 1987, estimates of total body radiocaesium in 240 volunteers ranged from below detection level to 1844 Bq with a mean of 415 Bq. From October 1987 until May 1988, a further 155 volunteers were monitored, and radiation levels ranged from 34 Bq to 685 Bq, with a mean of 257 Bq. In all volunteers, the ratio of body radiocaesium to body potassium, was well below unity. The average ratio of caesium-137 to caesium-134 from October 1987 to May 1988 was 3.28, corresponding to a ratio of 1.99 at the date of Chernobyl accident. This is consistent with a Chernobyl origin as the primary source for the radiocaesium. There were discernible, but not marked, trends of increasing body radiocaesium with milk and meat/fish consumption. (author)

  16. Science deficiency in conservation practice: the monitoring of tiger populations in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Seidensticker, J.; Dinerstein, Eric; Smith, J.L.D.; McDougal, C.; Johnsingh, A.J.T.; Chundawat, Raghunandan S.; Thapar, V.

    2003-01-01

    Conservation practices are supposed to get refined by advancing scientific knowledge. We study this phenomenon in the context of monitoring tiger populations in India, by evaluating the 'pugmark census method' employed by wildlife managers for three decades. We use an analytical framework of modem animal population sampling to test the efficacy of the pugmark censuses using scientific data on tigers and our field observations. We identify three critical goals for monitoring tiger populations, in order of increasing sophistication: (1) distribution mapping, (2) tracking relative abundance, (3) estimation of absolute abundance. We demonstrate that the present census-based paradigm does not work because it ignores the first two simpler goals, and targets, but fails to achieve, the most difficult third goal. We point out the utility and ready availability of alternative monitoring paradigms that deal with the central problems of spatial sampling and observability. We propose an alternative sampling-based approach that can be tailored to meet practical needs of tiger monitoring at different levels of refinement.

  17. Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

    2014-01-01

    Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are

  18. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret W. Miller

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis, A. palmata to a much lesser extent in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha, low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005–2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 –0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x. Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  19. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Margaret W; Kerr, Katryna; Williams, Dana E

    2016-01-01

    Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis , A. palmata to a much lesser extent) in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease) as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha), low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS) originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005-2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 -0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x). Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  20. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  1. Long-Term Bird Assemblage Trends in Areas of High and Low Human Population Density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, K.; Romagosa, C.M.; Williams, M.I.

    2008-01-01

    Urban areas are expanding globally, and the impact of high human population density (HHPD) on bird species richness remains unresolved. Studies primarily focus on species richness along an urban-to-rural gradient; however, some studies have analyzed larger-scale patterns and found results that contrast with those obtained at smaller scales. To move the discussion beyond static species richness patterns, we analyzed the effect of HHPD on bird assemblage dynamics (year-to-year extinction probability, turnover, changes in species richness) across the United States over a 25-year period. We found that bird assemblages in both high and low human population density areas changed significantly over the period of record. Specifically, bird assemblages increased in species richness on average. Assemblage change in areas of HHPD was not significantly different from assemblage change in areas with LHPD. These results suggest that human population density alone does not alter the persistence of avian assemblage patterns.

  2. Trends in lifestyle coronary risk factors in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, Lars Ulrik; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    Myocardial infarction incidence rate declined 3-5% per year during 1982-1992 in the Danish study population of the WHO MONICA Project. We examined whether smoking habits, alcohol intake, dietary habits and physical activity levels changed in the population during the same period. Data from 6695 men...... in 30-, 40- and 50-y-old women, but increased 0.9% per year in 60-y-old women. The percentages of heavy cigarette smoking men and women nevertheless remained constant and close to 30%. Total alcohol intake declined among 30-y-olds, but appeared constant in other age groups. However, among 60-y-old men...

  3. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  4. Monitoring trends of urban development and environmental impact of Beijing, 1999-2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Gengyuan; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen Bin; Ulgiati, Sergio

    2011-01-01

    The high rates of environmental change and accelerated species loss in the urban development process should be quantified to rebalance the social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In this study, an emergy-based environmental impact assessment model is designed according to the framework of the Eco-Indicator 99 for monitoring the negative effects on human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the urban development system of Beijing from 1999 to 2006. The environmental impact assessment model is based on the sustainability promotion perspective, and emphasizes the determinants of human health and ecosystem integrity in the urban development process. It is vital that the links among human health, ecosystem integrity and urban sustainability are therefore considered especially from the perspective of a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). Results suggest that: (1) out of all the pollutants, ecological services were mainly used to dilute sulfur dioxide and NH 3 -N; (2) nitrogen dioxide and greenhouse gases released by the urban system contribute heavily to both ecological and economic losses evaluated in emergy terms; and (3) emissions impact, mainly from airborne pollutants, with small contribution from waterborne emissions, generally increases from 1999 to 2006, undermining the sustainability of Beijing. The emergy synthesis proves to be very appropriate to account for large-scale and indirect costs generated by pollution as side effects of economic activity. Such knowledge is a necessary pre-requisite to perform a reliable cost-benefit evaluation of urban sustainability strategies, and provide guidance for policy decision making to maximize benefits and minimize negative impacts. - Research highlights: → We design an emergy-based environmental impact assessment model. → It takes dilution effects into account to monitor the negative effects to

  5. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  6. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Birds protected by national legislation show improved population trends in Eastern Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koleček, Jaroslav; Schleuning, M.; Burfield, I. J.; Báldi, A.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Devictor, V.; Fernández-García, J. M.; Hořák, D.; Van Turnhout, C. A. M.; Hnatyna, O.; Reif, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 172, April (2014), s. 109-116 ISSN 0006-3207 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Conservation effectiveness * Ecological trait * Environmental legislation * Global change * Life history strategy * Population growth rate Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 3.762, year: 2014

  8. World Population Trends: Signs of Hope, Signs of Stress. Worldwatch Paper 8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.

    The interrelationship of population growth, food production, and death rates is explored. Birth rates in China, Western Europe, and North America have significantly decreased in the five-year period from 1970-75. This is largely due to widening availability of family planning services and the growing desire to use them. Four European countries…

  9. [Current status and trends in the health of the Moscow population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tishuk, E A; Plavunov, N F; Soboleva, N P

    1997-01-01

    Based on vast comprehensive medical statistical database, the authors analyze the health status of the population and the efficacy of public health service in Moscow. The pre-crisis tendencies and the modern status of public health under modern socioeconomic conditions are noted.

  10. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...... height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men age......, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  11. [A population-targeted approach to connect prevention, care and welfare: visualising the trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L C; Drewes, H W; Lette, M; Baan, C A

    2017-01-01

    To map initiatives in the Netherlands using a population-targeted approach to link prevention, care and welfare. Descriptive investigation, based on conversations and structured interviews. We searched for initiatives in which providers in the areas of prevention, care and welfare together with health insurers and/or local authorities attempted to provide the 'triple aim': improving the health of the population and the quality of care, and managing costs. We found potential initiatives on the basis of interviews with key figures, project databases and congress programmes. We looked for additional information on websites and via contact persons to gather additional information to determine whether the initiative met the inclusion criteria. An initiative should link prevention, care and welfare with a minimum of three players actively pursuing a population-targeted goal through multiple interventions for a non-disease specific and district-transcending population. We described the goal, organisational structure, parties involved, activities and funding on the basis of interviews conducted in the period August-December 2015 with the managers of the initiatives included. We found 19 initiatives which met the criteria where there was experimentation with organisational forms, levels of participation, interventions and funding. It was noticeable that the interventions mostly concerned medical care. There was a lack of insight into the 'triple aim', mostly because data exchange between parties is generally difficult. There is an increasing number of initiatives that follow a population-targeted approach. Although the different parties strive to connect the three domains, they are still searching for an optimal collaboration, organisational form, data exchange and financing.

  12. Biannual monitoring of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility in Danish pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Caroline; Kristensen, Michael; Jensen, Karl-Martin Vagn

    2015-01-01

    ) were used. Pollen beetle populations were collected from 47 locations of Denmark with the help of the consultants and the farmers of the various regions in 2014. Further six populations were tested from Sweden and one from Germany. In the following year 2015, the monitoring continued to find out......The pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) is a serious pest in the northern countries in oilseed rape. To determine the present level of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility of Danish pollen beetle populations, standardized methods recommended by IRAC (Insecticide Resistance Action Committee......, if the resistance level which was determined in 2014 was stable in selected regions. Therefore pollen beetle populations from 14 locations in Denmark and five locations in Germany have been tested. For all tests the standardised methods for pyrethroids, the Adult-vial-test No. 11 and the Adult-vials-test No. 21...

  13. Monitoring trends in civil engineering and their effect on indoor radon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringer, W

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the importance of monitoring new building concepts is discussed. The effect of energy-efficient construction technologies on indoor radon is presented in more detail. Comparing the radon levels of about 100 low-energy and passive houses in Austria with radon levels in conventional new houses show that, in energy-efficient new houses, the radon level is about one-third lower than in conventional new houses. Nevertheless, certain features or bad practice may cause high radon levels in energy-efficient new houses. Recommendations to avoid adverse effects were set up. Furthermore, the paper deals with the effect of thermal retrofitting on indoor radon. Results from a Swiss study where 163 dwellings were measured before and after thermal retrofit yield an increase of the radon level of 26% in average. Among the various retrofit measures, replacing windows has the greatest impact on the indoor radon level. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Monitoring requirements for detecting tidal barrage induced changes to estuary bird populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davenport, T.; Jeffers, J.N.R.; North, P.M.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.; Prys-Jones, R.P.

    1990-01-01

    This study was performed to examine the monitoring requirements for detecting tidal barrage induced changes to estuary bird populations, focussing mainly on the Mersey estuary. The degree of variability in populations between years for a number of species within the Mersey, Dee, Alt and Ribble were ascertained. The number of counts needed each winter, before and after barrage construction, were assessed. The percentage charge detectable for species was predicted. One east coast estuary (the Wash) was investigated for comparison of the effects of influences of severe weather. (UK)

  15. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian S.; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. PMID:29364953

  16. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers.

  17. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  18. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, David A; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hayward, Matt W; Kester, Marieke E; Lamoreux, John; Upgren, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE PROVISION FOR RADIATION SAFETY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available P.V.Ramzaev”The article is devoted to the actual issues ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety providing at the present stage. The important role of radiation-hygienic passportization is underlined in the process of the obtaining of objective information of radiation situation in the country, of population exposure doses from the all sources: artificial and natural, from the use of ionizing irradiation sources in medicine. The leading role is shown of the natural ionizing irradiation sources in the level of the country population exposure. The main directions of activities are stated aimed on the decreasing of population exposure doses from the natural sources. The brief characteristics is given of the radiation situation on the territories radioactively contaminated after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP, in the Pacific Ocean basin after the accident on the “Fukushima-1”NPP, of the main measures for radiation protection providing and for counteraction to radiation terrorism during the period of international sports and mass actions which were carried out in Russia in the last years (XXVII World Summer Universiade in2013 inKazan, XXII Olympic and XI Winter Paralympics Games in2014 inSochi. The most important tasks are defined for the improvement ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety at the present stage.

  20. Recommendations for monitoring avian populations with point counts: a case study in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagner Cavarzere

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the northern hemisphere, bird counts have been fundamental in gathering data to understand population trends. Due to the seasonality of the northern hemisphere, counts take place during two clearly defined moments in time: the breeding season (resident birds and winter (after migration. Depending on location, Neotropical birds may breed at any time of year, may or may not migrate, and those patterns are not necessarily synchronous among species. Also in contrast to the northern hemisphere, population trends and the impact of rapid urbanization and deforestation are unknown and unmonitored. Throughout one year, we used point counts to better understand temporal patterns of bird species richness and relative abundance in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, to examine how to implement similar bird counts in tropical America. We counted birds twice each day on 10 point transects (20 points day‑1, separated by 200 m, with a 100 m limited detection radius in a semideciduous tropical forest. Both species richness and bird abundance were greater in the morning, but accumulation curves suggest that longer-duration afternoon counts would reach the same total species as in morning counts. Species richness and bird abundance did not vary seasonally and unique species were counted every month; relatively few species (20% were present in all months. Most (84% known forest species in the area were encountered. We suggest that point counts can work here as they do in the northern hemisphere. We recommend that transects include at least 20 points and that the simplest timing of bird counts would also be seasonal, using timing of migration of austral migrants (and six months later to coordinate counts. We propose that bird counts in Brazil, and elsewhere in Latin America, would provide data to help understand population trends, but would require greater effort than in temperate latitudes due to greater species richness and different dynamics of

  1. Population trends in substances used in deliberate self-poisoning leading to intensive care unit admissions from 2000 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskaran, Joanna; Johnson, Eric; Bolton, James M; Randall, Jason R; Mota, Natalie; Katz, Cara; Rigatto, Claudio; Skakum, Kurt; Roberts, Dan; Sareen, Jitender

    2015-12-01

    To examine population trends in serious intentional overdoses leading to admission to intensive care units (ICUs) in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Participants consisted of 1,011 individuals presenting to any of the 11 ICUs in Winnipeg, Canada, with deliberate self-poisonings from January 2000 to December 2010. Eight categories of substances were created: poisons, over-the-counter medications, prescription medications, tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), sedatives and antidepressants, anticonvulsants, lithium, and cocaine. Using the population of Winnipeg as the denominator, we conducted generalized linear model regression analyses using the Poisson distribution with log link to determine significance of linear trends in overdoses by substance over time. Women accounted for more presentations than men (57.8%), and the largest percentage of overdoses occurred among individuals in the 35- to 54-year age range. A large proportion of admissions were due to multiple overdoses, which accounted for 65.7% of ICU admissions. At the population level, multiple overdoses increased slightly over time (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.02, P < .05), whereas use of poisons (IRR = 0.897, P < .01), over-the-counter medications (IRR = 0.910, P < .01), nonpsychotropic prescription medications (IRR = 0.913, P < .01), anticonvulsants (IRR = 0.880, P < .01), and TCAs (IRR = 0.920, P < .01) decreased over time. Overdoses did not change over time as a function of age or sex. However, severity of overdoses classified by length of stay increased over time (IRR = 1.08, P < .01). It is important for physicians to exercise vigilance while prescribing medication, including being aware of other medications their patients have access to. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  2. Increasing trend of Japanese encephalitis cases in West Bengal, India - a threat to paediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debjani Taraphdar

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To detect the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV as the etiologic agent from the acute encephalitis syndrome (AES cases mainly amongst the children and young adults from vaccinated and non-vaccinated districts of West Bengal. Methods: For the detection of JEV, a total of 828 sera were referred from vaccinated and non vaccinated districts of West Bengal during 2005-2011. Japanese encephalitis (JE positive cases were confirmed by ELISA and RT-PCR method. Results: Out of 828 cases, 245 samples were positive by ELISA method and 46 samples were positive by RT-PCR method. Out of 291 total positive cases, 162 (55.6% were below 20 years of age. Initially in 2005, JE cases were highest amongst the children and young adults (0-20 years. After vaccination, although the JE cases declined gradually in the vaccinated districts, but again from 2010, JE cases from the said age group showed an increasing trend from those districts. JE cases were also reported from other endemic zones of this state, which were still non-vaccinated. Conclusions: In West Bengal, JE cases are still predominated among children and young adults till the year 2011. Mass scale vaccination programme and investigation on the circulating strains are essentially required to find out the reasons of increasing tendency of JE cases in this state.

  3. Conservation and monitoring of a persecuted African lion population by Maasai warriors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Hazzah, Leela; Frank, Laurence G

    2016-06-01

    Although Africa has many threatened species and biological hot spots, there are few citizen science schemes, particularly in rural communities, and there has been limited evaluation of existing programs. We engaged traditional Maasai warriors (pastoralist men aged 15 to 35) in community-based conservation and demographic monitoring of a persecuted African lion (Panthera leo) population. Through direct engagement, we investigated whether a citizen science approach employing local warriors, who had no formal education, could produce reliable data on the demographics, predation, and movements of a species with which their communities have been in conflict for generations. Warriors were given benefits such as literacy training and skill enhancement and engaged in the monitoring of the lions. The trained warriors reported on lion sign across an area nearly 4000 km(2) . Scientists worked together with the warriors to verify their reports and gather observations on the lion population. Using the verified reports and collected observations, we examined our scientific knowledge relative to the lion population preceding and during the citizen science program. Our observations showed that data quality and quantity improved with the involvement and training of the participants. Furthermore, because they engaged in conservation and gained personal benefits, the participants came to appreciate a species that was traditionally their foe. We believe engaging other local communities in biodiversity conservation and monitoring may be an effective conservation approach in rural Africa. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Genetic monitoring of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) populations on a microgeographic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivkosic, S A; Gorman, J; Lemic, D; Mikac, K M

    2014-06-01

    Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA genetic monitoring of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, was undertaken in Croatia and Serbia from 1996 to 2011 and in the United States in 2011. The seven U.S. populations displayed the greatest allelic diversity. In Europe, the highest number of alleles was found in Rugvica, Croatia, and Surčin, Serbia, the two sites closest to international airports. The highest number of mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplotypes was recorded from Croatia in 1996. From 2009 to 2011, haplotype diversity declined, and Croatia and Serbia had a single fixed haplotype. U.S. continuous maize locations had one haplotype, while three haplotypes were found at crop-rotated locations. Minimal temporal genetic differentiation was found within and between populations in Europe and the United States. Bayesian cluster analysis identified two genetic clusters that grouped western corn rootworm from Croatia and Serbia separately from U.S. populations; however, these clusters were not neat, and numerous U.S. individuals had both European and U.S. ancestry, suggesting bidirectional gene flow. Bottlenecks were identified within most Croatian populations sampled in 1996, only two populations in 2009, and in all populations in 2011. Bottlenecks were not identified from Serbia from 1996 to 2011 or from the United States in 2011. As suspected Serbia was identified as the geographic source of western corn rootworm in Croatia. The temporal genetic monitoring undertaken allowed a deeper understanding of the population genetics of western corn rootworm in Croatia, neighboring Serbia, and its geographic source in the United States. The data obtained can be used to inform western corn rootworm pest management strategies in Croatia and Europe.

  5. Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Desorcie, Timothy J.; Kostich, Melissa Jean; Armenio, Patricia M.; Adams, Jean V.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has conducted lake-wide surveys of the fish community in Lake Michigan each fall since 1973 using standard 12-m bottom trawls towed along contour at depths of 9 to 110 m at each of seven index transects. The resulting data on relative abundance, size and age structure, and condition of individual fishes are used to estimate various population parameters that are in turn used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. All seven established index transects of the survey were completed in 2013. The survey provides relative abundance and biomass estimates between the 5-m and 114-m depth contours of the lake (herein, lake-wide) for prey fish populations, as well as burbot, yellow perch, and the introduced dreissenid mussels. Lake-wide biomass of alewives in 2013 was estimated at 29 kilotonnes (kt, 1 kt = 1000 metric tonnes), which was more than three times the 2012 estimate. However, the unusually high standard error associated with the 2013 estimate indicated no significant increase in lake-wide biomass between 2012 and 2013. Moreover, the age distribution of alewives remained truncated with no alewife exceeding an age of 5. The population of age-1 and older alewives was dominated (i.e., 88%) by the 2010 and 2012 year-classes. Record low biomass was observed for deepwater sculpin (1.3 kt) and ninespine stickleback (0.004 kt) in 2013, while bloater (1.6 kt) and rainbow smelt (0.2 kt) biomasses remained at low levels. Slimy sculpin lake-wide biomass was 0.32 kt in 2013, marking the fourth consecutive year of a decline. The 2013 biomass of round goby was estimated at 10.9 kt, which represented the peak estimate to date. Burbot lake-wide biomass (0.4 kt in 2013) has remained below 3 kt since 2001. Numeric density of age-0 yellow perch (i.e., fish per ha, which is indicative of a relatively poor year-class. Lake-wide biomass estimate of dreissenid mussels in 2013 was 23.2 kt. Overall, the total

  6. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  7. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  8. Immigrant workers in the United States: recent trends, vulnerable populations, and challenges for occupational health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Linda A

    2005-07-01

    Immigrant workers are a rapidly growing segment of the U.S. work force, and these increasing numbers have resulted in a different ethnic mix in the work force than in previous decades. Immigrant workers are not a homogenous group, but are over-represented in low-paying occupations. Their diversity and vulnerability present distinct challenges for occupational health nurses. High-risk occupations in which a large proportion of immigrant workers are hired include agriculture, sweatshops, day laborers, and construction. Initiatives needed to improve the working conditions of this vulnerable population include improved surveillance and research, culturally competent care providers, improved health care access, advocacy, and changes in immigration and health policy.

  9. Testicular cancer trends as 'whistle blowers' of testicular developmental problems in populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skakkebaek, N E; Rajpert-De Meyts, Ewa; Jørgensen, N

    2007-01-01

    Recently a worldwide rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer (TGCC) has been repeatedly reported. The changing disease pattern may signal that other testicular problems may also be increasing. We have reviewed recent research progress, in particular evidence gathered in the Nordic...... countries, which shows strong associations between testicular cancer, undescended testis, hypospadias, poor testicular development and function, and male infertility. These studies have led us to suggest the existence of a testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS), of which TGCC, undescended testis, hypospadias...... in TGCC rates of a population may be 'whistle blowers' of other reproductive health problems. As cancer registries are often of excellent quality - in contrast to registries for congenital abnormalities - health authorities should consider an increase in TGCC as a warning that other reproductive health...

  10. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    China Supakorn

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

  12. Tetralogy of fallot (cyanotic cardiac malformation), trends and variation in a population based study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arif, A.; Zehra, S.; Qamarunnisa, S.; Azhar, A.

    2012-01-01

    Congenital heart diseases (CHDs) are a major threat worldwide for children below the age of five. It has high mortality and morbidity ratio. CHDs can be classified as cyanotic and acyanotic. Cyanotic cardiac malformation accounts 25% of all congenital heart diseases and Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) is .the most common form of cyanotic CHD. Tetralogy of Fallot is a combination of four anatomical abnormalities. These include a large ventricular septal defect (VSD), right ventricular outflow tract and pulmonary valve obstruction, right ventricular hypertrophy, and over-riding of the aorta. The current investigation was conducted over the span of 2.5 years on the patients presented in OPD and hospitalized at various pediatric cardiology centers. A detailed family history was taken to elucidate the genetic and environmental factors. Diagnosis was confirmed by the cardiologist based on examination of cardiac murmur, chest X-ray, fetal echocardiography (ECG), complete blood count (CBC), echocardiograms and/or echocardiogram (ECHO) reports, cardiac catherization reports, operative notes and MRI of heart, if applicable. This study recruited a cohort of 268 patients and 140 controls, healthy unrelated individuals. The mean age for patients was 2.97+-1.21 and that for controls was 3.14+-2.44 years. Males were shown to have a higher rate of incidence than females (1.26:1) in our population. The genes that are mainly involved are NKX 2.5, GAT A 4, TBX5, JAGI, ZFPM2 and VEGF. The present study focuses on NKX 2.5 and its mutations in our population. (author)

  13. Trends of Mental Health Status in Iranian Population Aged 15 and above between 1999 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noorbala, Ahmad Ali; Bagheri Yazdi, Seyed Abbas; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Kamali, Koorosh; Faghihzadeh, Elham; Hajebi, Ahmad; Akhondzadeh, Shahin; Esalatmanesh, Sophia; Bagheri Yazdi, HanihalSadat; Abbasinejad, Maryam; Asadi, Ali

    2017-11-01

    The main objective of this study was to compare the results of mental health surveys on adult populations of all provinces in Iran, between 1999 and 2015. This study was an overview of two cross-sectional, descriptive studies that were performed in 1999 and 2015. The study population of these two studies consisted of urban and rural residents of all provinces in Iran. Samples were recruited by systematic random cluster sampling. In both studies, the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) was used to assess mental health status of respondents. Trained psychologists completed questionnaires, and data were analyzed using SPSS software-18. The results showed that in the survey of 1999, 21% of participants suffered from mental disorders (25.9% of females and 14.9% of males). In the survey of 2015, 23.4% of samples were suspected of having mental disorders (27.6% of females and 19.3% of males). The prevalence of mental disorders increased from 1999 to 2014 by about 1.12 fold (1.06 fold in females and 1.3 fold in males). In the survey of 1999, rural residents were more at risk of mental disorders, while in the survey of 2015, urban residents were more prone to mental disorders. In both studies, the risk of suspicion for mental disorders increased with increasing age, and was higher in people aged 65 and above, as well as widowed, divorced and illiterate individuals. The results of this study showed an increase in suspected cases of mental disorders in Iran from 1999 to 2015. Therefore, it is vital for policymakers and health officials to take action in order to improve and maintain mental health status of the people who are at risk in the country.

  14. Trends of radiation dose to the Slovak population from diagnostic nuclear medicine examinations during the period from 1985 to 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ftacnikova, S.; Ragan, P.

    1998-01-01

    A mathematical formalism was used to evaluate the radiation dose to population from radiodiagnostic procedures. Data for the calculation were obtained from questionnaires sent to the 12 Slovak hospitals which involve nuclear medicine departments. The mean effective dose for a procedure was determined by multiplying the administered radioactivity by the effective dose per unit of applied radiopharmaceutical activity; the latter value was taken from the literature. The values of the collective effective dose, total number of examinations, mean effective dose per examination and per capita and the number of examinations in 1000 inhabitants are tabulated for the 1985-1995 period. A favorable decreasing trend in the mean effective dose per examination after 1991 was observed. This was mainly due to the replacement of 131 I labelled compounds by 99m Tc radiopharmaceuticals. An overview of nuclear medicine diagnostic practice for pediatric and adult patients is also presented. The number of diagnostic procedures per 1000 inhabitants is significantly lower than in the most developed countries, and this unfavorable trend is continuing so far. (P.A.)

  15. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

  16. Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Andrew R; Cha, Peter S; Devana, Sai K; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D'Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C; McAllister, David R; Petrigliano, Frank A

    2017-10-01

    Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs.

  17. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

  18. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

  19. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

    2017-09-18

    We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  20. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  1. Trends in the prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan from 1997 to 2013: A nationwide population-based retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui-Chieh; Su, Ni-Yu; Huang, Jing-Yang; Lee, Shiuan-Shinn; Chang, Yu-Chao

    2017-11-01

    Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases. In this study, we probed the nationwide registered database to assess the time trends of prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan.A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the registered database compiled by the National Health Insurance provided by the Department of Health, Taiwan, from 1997 to December 2013.We found that the prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased from 11.5% in 1997 to 19.59% in 2013 (P for trend periodontitis from 1997 to 2013 was 54.46 ± 14.47 and 45.51 ± 16.58 years old, respectively. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age group >65 years old decreased markedly. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age groups periodontitis (male: RR, 67.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.04-266.76; female: RR, 65.85, 95% CI, 16.70-259.70). Both male and female groups showed the similar age-effect pattern in the cross-sectional age curve from age-period-cohort model. There was an upturn with advancing age up to 40 to 50 years old and then a downward trend in both genders. Population dwelling in suburban area (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97) and rural area (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) had the lower risk of periodontitis than those who lived in urban area. The higher income group revealed the higher risk of periodontitis compared with lower income group (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.23).The prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased in Taiwan over past 17 years. The mean age with periodontitis was shown in a decreased pattern. The use of a nationwide population-based database could provide sufficient sample size, generalizability, and statistical power to assess the periodontal status in Taiwan.

  2. The Rising Prevalence and Incidence of Gout in British Columbia, Canada: Population-Based Trends from 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Sharan K.; Aviña-Zubieta, J. Antonio; McCormick, Natalie; De Vera, Mary A.; Shojania, Kam; Sayre, Eric C.; Choi, Hyon K.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Gout is increasingly recognized as the most common form of inflammatory arthritis worldwide; however, no Canadian data on the disease burden of gout are available. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, prescription patterns, and comorbidity burden of gout in an entire Canadian province (British Columbia [BC]) over the last decade. Methods We utilized PopulationData BC, a province-wide database, to estimate temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of gout from 2000-2012, as well as according to age category. Annual estimates were age-sex-standardized using 2012 as the reference. We also examined annual trends in prescription patterns of common gout medications and assessed the comorbidity burden among gout patients in 2012. Results The 2012 prevalence of gout was 3.8% among the overall population, and the incidence rate was 2.9 per 1,000 person-years. Both gout prevalence and incidence increased substantially over the study period. This burden additionally increased according to age category, affecting over 8% of those ages 60-69 years in 2012. Approximately 22% of gout patients received a prescription for urate-lowering therapy (ULT), which remained stable over the study period, while colchicine and oral glucocorticoid use both increased modestly. By 2012, 72%, 52%, and 18% of prevalent gout patients had been diagnosed with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, respectively. Conclusions The burden of gout in BC, Canada, is substantial, and both the prevalence and incidence have increased over the past decade, while prescription of ULT remains low. These data support the need to improve gout prevention and care. PMID:28040245

  3. [Prevalence trends of high risk of mental disorders in the Spanish adult population: 2006-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basterra, Virginia

    To evaluate the prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity in the Spanish adult population and its changes between 2006 and 2012. Data from 47,905 participants obtained from the National Health Surveys in 2006 and 2012 were used. Mental health status was assessed with the General Health Questionnaire score. Adjusted logistic regression models were fitted. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity was 20.5% in 2012 and 21.3% in 2006. Using 2006 as the reference, the odds ratio (OR) for these problems in 2012 was 0.84 (0.79-0.89) in women and 1.10 (1.02-1.18) in men. In women, it decreased for all ages. In men, these ORs were 1.15 (1.04-1.27) in the aged 16-44 group, 1.23 (1.08-1.40) in the aged 45-64 group and 0.81 (0.68-0.96) in the aged ≥ 65 group. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity decreased except in males <65 years of age, who are more sensitive to the economic crisis. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Population trends and public awareness of healthy and pathological ageing in India: A brief overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loganathan, Santosh; Iyengar, Vijeth; Chowdappa, Suresh Vedalaveni; Varghese, Mathew

    2017-10-01

    India is poised to experience dramatic shifts in the age and makeup of its population. Specifically, projections havehighlighted an increase in both the percentage of the elderly and those suffering from dementia-related disorders.Previous studies have examined the demographics of aging, its impact on the healthcare infrastructure and recommended policies to better cater to the elderly. This article focuses on a summary of these findings in relation to key stakeholders in the care of the elderly including mental health professionals, family caregivers, and public health officials. We broadly conclude that there exists a general shallow level of understanding of what constitutes pathological aging (i.e. dementia) across all stakeholders, and this creates a cascade of effects including delays in treatment seeking and barriers in conducting and having accurate demographic studies. Moreover, addressing this knowledge gap can help enhance communication between these three stakeholders in the hopes of the following: (a) increased education and awareness, (b) faster seeking of care, and (c) earlier diagnoses leading to better opportunities to collect accurate demographics of those suffering from dementia-related disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Trends in the breeding population and driving factors of Adélie penguin in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, H.; Li, X.; Cheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Ross Sea regions have been characterized by high penguin-chick-rearing habitat suitability in the recent past. Many studies have been done to study the Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. However, the data they used both had advantages and drawbacks. Besides, little quantitative analysis were carried out to study the impact factors on the penguin population change. In this study, penguin population data from MAPPPD (Mapping application for penguin populations and projected dynamics) and IBA (Important bird areas in Antarctica) were integrated and analyzed to study the distribution and trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguin over time in the Ross Sea. In addition, linear fitting method for spatial data in time series were used to study the driving factors such as 2m-temperature, sea ice cover and chlorophyll-a concentration which can quantify phytoplankton blooms. Results indicated that there were 45 Adélie penguin colonies in the Ross Sea. Cape Adare and Cape Crozier were two biggest colonies on which current Adélie penguin abundance were 428516 and 280787 breeding pairs, respectively. Among these colonies, penguin population on 28 colonies increased, on 5 colonies decreased and on 5 colonies remained no change over time, and there were also 5 new colonies and one colony which were extinct. It was found that Adélie penguin population in most of colonies in the Ross Sea increased, which meant that Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea were "climate change winners". The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin population in the Ross Sea might be the rise in 2m-temperature and the increase in sea ice cover and phytoplankton. Higher temperatures have resulted in glacial retreat and snow melting, which leads to an increase in available habitat for penguins. The increased sea ice and phytoplankton might positively affect the abundance of Antarctic krill that was the major prey item for Adélie penguins in Antarctic.

  6. Environmental monitoring of Micro Prespa Lake basin (Western Macedonia, Greece): hydrogeochemical characteristics of water resources and quality trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tziritis, Evangelos P

    2014-07-01

    The Micro Prespa basin is a trilateral catchment area of significant importance with a unique ecosystem closely related to the homonymous lake. In this frame, a fully operational monitoring project was carried out including continuous real-time measurements in Micro Prespa Lake with the use of a multi-sensor probe, as well as periodical sampling and analyses of all available water systems for an extended set of 85 parameters. Four main interacting water systems were identified, including alluvial and karstic aquifers, Micro Prespa Lake and adjacent drainage network. The results outlined that general environmental conditions are satisfying in respect to the relative legislation and the hydrogeochemical signatures. However, trends of environmental pressures were ascertained as a result of natural (geogenic) factors, embracing seasonal peaks for Ni, Pb, and NH4 mainly in groundwater systems. Based on chlorophyll a records, Micro Prespa is classified as oligotrophic to slightly mesotrophic, subjected to seasonal variations. Heavy metal concentrations are low, except Ni which appears to have elevated values during the dry hydrological period. Finally, the hydrogeochemistry of drainage network is primarily influenced by surface runoff of the surrounding mountainous areas, hence elevated phosphorus values of the Aghios Germanos stream are possibly linked with the leaching of the granitic formations on the east.

  7. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Thasiphu, Thalisa; Weon, Jong-Il; Boonprasert, Rattana; Tuitemwong, Kooranee; Tuitemwong, Pravate

    2015-01-01

    Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants). In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed. PMID:25884032

  8. Evaluation of Seismic Response Trends from Long-Term Monitoring of Two Instrumented RC Buildings Including Soil-Structure Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faheem Butt

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents analyses of the seismic responses of two reinforced concrete buildings monitored for a period of more than two years. One of the structures was a three-storey reinforced concrete (RC frame building with a shear core, while the other was a three-storey RC frame building without a core. Both buildings are part of the same large complex but are seismically separated from the rest of it. Statistical analysis of the relationships between maximum free field accelerations and responses at different points on the buildings was conducted and demonstrated strong correlation between those. System identification studies using recorded accelerations were undertaken and revealed that natural frequencies and damping ratios of the building structures vary during different earthquake excitations. This variation was statistically examined and relationships between identified natural frequencies and damping ratios, and the peak response acceleration at the roof level were developed. A general trend of decreasing modal frequencies and increasing damping ratios was observed with increased level of shaking and response. Moreover, the influence of soil structure interaction (SSI on the modal characteristics was evaluated. SSI effects decreased the modal frequencies and increased some of the damping ratios.

  9. Trends in Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment and Control of Hypertension during 2001-2010 in an Urban Elderly Population of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; He, Yao; Jiang, Bin; Sun, Dongling; Wang, Jianhua; Liu, Miao; Yang, Shanshan; Wang, Yiyan

    2015-01-01

    As the most important risk factors of cardiovascular disease, pre-hypertension and hypertension are important public health challenges. Few studies have focused on the trends of pre-hypertension and hypertension specifically for the aging population in China. Given the anticipated growth of the elderly population in China, there is an urgent need to document the conditions of pre-hypertension and hypertension in this aging population. We conducted two cross-sectional surveys of Chinese adults aged ≥60 years in 2001 and 2010. A total of 2,272 (943 males, 1,329 females) and 2,074 (839 males, 1,235 females) participants were included in the two surveys, respectively. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of hypertension significantly increased from 60.1% to 65.2% from the 2001 to the 2010 survey. Among the participants with hypertension, the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension all significantly increased from 69.8% to 74.5%, 50.3% to 63.7%, and 15.3% to 30.3%, respectively, from 2001 to 2010. A logistic regression showed that a higher education level, a higher BMI, a family history of hypertension and doctor-diagnosed cardiovascular disease were significantly associated with hypertension awareness and treatment. Hypertension prevalence increased rapidly between the years surveyed. Although the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension improved significantly, the values of these variables remained low. More attention should be given to the elderly because the population is aging worldwide, and urgent action, optimal treatment approaches and proper public health strategies must be taken to prevent and manage hypertension.

  10. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  11. Fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction: a new population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjessing, H K; Grøttum, P; Økland, I; Eik-Nes, S H

    2017-04-01

    To develop a complete, population-based system for ultrasound-based fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction for use in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Using 31 516 ultrasound examinations from a population-based Norwegian clinical database, we constructed fetal size charts for biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference from 24 to 42 weeks' gestation. A reference curve of median birth weight for gestational age was estimated using 45 037 birth weights. We determined how individual deviations from the expected ultrasound measures predicted individual percentage deviations from expected birth weight. The predictive quality was assessed by explained variance of birth weight and receiver-operating characteristics curves for prediction of small-for-gestational age. A curve for intrauterine estimated fetal weight was constructed. Charts were smoothed using the gamlss non-linear regression method. The population-based approach, using bias-free ultrasound gestational age, produces stable estimates of size-for-age and weight-for-age curves in the range 24-42 weeks' gestation. There is a close correspondence between percentage deviations and percentiles of birth weight by gestational age, making it easy to convert between the two. The variance of birth weight that can be 'explained' by ultrasound increases from 8% at 20 weeks up to 67% around term. Intrauterine estimated fetal weight is 0-106 g higher than median birth weight in the preterm period. The new population-based birth-weight prediction model provides a simple summary measure, the 'percentage birth-weight deviation', to be used for fetal size monitoring throughout the third trimester. Predictive quality of the model can be measured directly from the population data. The model computes both median observed birth weight and intrauterine estimated fetal weight. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John

  12. National Surveys of Population Health: Big Data Analytics for Mobile Health Monitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Bruce R

    2015-12-01

    At the core of the healthcare crisis is fundamental lack of actionable data. Such data could stratify individuals within populations to predict which persons have which outcomes. If baselines existed for all variations of all conditions, then managing health could be improved by matching the measuring of individuals to their cohort in the population. The scale required for complete baselines involves effective National Surveys of Population Health (NSPH). Traditionally, these have been focused upon acute medicine, measuring people to contain the spread of epidemics. In recent decades, the focus has moved to chronic conditions as well, which require smaller measures over longer times. NSPH have long utilized quality of life questionnaires. Mobile Health Monitors, where computing technologies eliminate manual administration, provide richer data sets for health measurement. Older technologies of telephone interviews will be replaced by newer technologies of smartphone sensors to provide deeper individual measures at more frequent timings across larger-sized populations. Such continuous data can provide personal health records, supporting treatment guidelines specialized for population cohorts. Evidence-based medicine will become feasible by leveraging hundreds of millions of persons carrying mobile devices interacting with Internet-scale services for Big Data Analytics.

  13. Evaluation of yellow sticky traps for monitoring the population of thrips (Thysanoptera) in a mango orchard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliakbarpour, Hamaseh; Rawi, Che Salmah Md

    2011-08-01

    Populations of several thrips species were estimated using yellow sticky traps in an orchard planted with mango, Mangifera indica L. during the dry and wet seasons beginning in late 2008-2009 on Penang Island, Malaysia. To determine the efficacy of using sticky traps to monitor thrips populations, we compared weekly population estimates on yellow sticky traps with thrips population sizes that were determined (using a CO(2) method) directly from mango panicles. Dispersal distance and direction of thrips movement out of the orchard also were studied using yellow sticky traps placed at three distances from the edge of the orchard in four cardinal directions facing into the orchard. The number of thrips associated with the mango panicles was found to be correlated with the number of thrips collected using the sticky trap method. The number of thrips captured by the traps decreased with increasing distance from the mango orchard in all directions. Density of thrips leaving the orchard was related to the surrounding vegetation. Our results demonstrate that sticky traps have the potential to satisfactorily estimate thrips populations in mango orchards and thus they can be effectively employed as a useful tactic for sampling thrips.

  14. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E [Applied Mathematics Division, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)

    2003-11-21

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated.

  15. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E

    2003-01-01

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated

  16. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Peixia; Yin, Peng; Ning, Peishan; Wang, Lijun; Cheng, Xunjie; Liu, Yunning; Schwebel, David C; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; Hu, Guoqing; Zhou, Maigeng

    2017-07-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China. Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other

  17. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peixia Cheng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural, and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China.Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10 since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1 Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13. (2 Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3 Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for

  18. Trend analysis of hospital resource utilization for prolonged mechanical ventilation patients in Taiwan: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Tien-Chiung; Lai, Yung-Fa; Tseng, Ching-Wan; Hong, Yong-Han; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2013-04-01

    The aging Taiwan population is expected to require vast medical resources, including prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). This study determined the trends in hospital resource utilization and associated factors in PMV patients in Taiwan. All patients who had received mechanical ventilation for > 21 days (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 518.81-518.89) during 2004-2007 were recruited to the study. Administrative claims data obtained from the Bureau of National Health Insurance of Taiwan were analyzed. The study analyzed 65,181 patients who had received PMV during 2004-2007. The number of PMVs per 100,000 persons was 94.30 in 2004, and it gradually decreased to 89.38 in 2007, which was a change rate of -5.22%. During the study period, stay significantly decreased, from 35.12 days to 31.61 days, whereas hospital treatment costs significantly increased, from $7,933.17 to $8,257.52 (P providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization. Additionally, these analytical results should be applicable to similar populations in other countries.

  19. Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine S. Fu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%, transportation (28%, industry (20%, agriculture (10%, and commercial and residential (10%. Yet the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annual temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. We find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. This finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city’s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.

  20. Assessing Genetic Literacy Awareness and Knowledge Gaps in the US Population: Results from the Health Information National Trends Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakow, Melinda; Ratcliff, Chelsea L; Hesse, Bradford W; Greenberg-Worisek, Alexandra J

    2018-05-31

    Public understanding of the role of genetics in disease risk is key to appropriate disease prevention and detection. This study assessed the current extent of awareness and use of genetic testing in the US population. Additionally, the study identified characteristics of subgroups more likely to be at risk for low genetic literacy. The study used data from the National Cancer Institute's 2017 Health Information National Trends Survey, including measures of genetic testing awareness, genetic testing applications and genetic testing usage. Multivariable logistic regression models estimated associations between sociodemographics, genetic testing awareness, and genetic testing use. Fifty-seven percent of respondents were aware of genetic tests. Testing awareness differed by age, household income, and race/ethnicity. Most participants had heard of using tests to determine personal disease risk (82.58%) or inherited disease risk in children (81.41%), but less were familiar with determining treatment (38.29%) or drug efficacy (40.76%). Among those with genetic testing awareness, actual testing uptake was low. A large portion of the general public lacks genetic testing awareness and may benefit from educational campaigns. As precision medicine expands, increasing public awareness about genetic testing applications for disease prevention and treatment will be important to support population health. This is a work of the US Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. Foreign copyrights may apply. Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  1. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  2. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  3. RADIATION HYGIENIC MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION DOSES IN RADIOACTIVELY CONTAMINATED AREAS OF TULA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Chichura

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal. The analyses of radiation hygienic monitoring conducted in Tula region territories affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident regarding cesium-137 and strontium- 90 in the local foodstuffs and the analyses of populational annual effective dose. The materials and methods. The survey was conducted in Tula Region since 1997 to 2015. Over that period, more than fifty thousand samples of the main foodstuffs from the post-Chernobyl contaminated area were analyzed. Simultaneously with that, the external gamma - radiation dose rate was measured in the fixed control points. The dynamics of cesium -137 and strontium-90 content in foodstuffs were assessed along with the maximum values of the mean annual effective doses to the population and the contribution of the collective dose from medical exposures into the structure of the annual effective collective dose to the population. The results. The amount of cesium-137 and strontium -90 in the local foodstuffs was identified. The external gamma- radiation dose rate values were found to be stable and not exceeding the natural fluctuations range typical for the middle latitudes of Russia’s European territory. The maximum mean annual effective dose to the population reflects the stable radiation situation and does not exceed the permissible value of 1 mSv. The contribution of the collective dose from medical exposures of the population has been continuously reducing as well as the average individual dose to the population per one medical treatment under the annual increase of the medical treatments quantities. The conclusion. There is no exceedance of the admissible levels of cesium-137 and strontium- 90 content in the local foodstuffs. The mean annual effective dose to the population has decreased which makes it possible to transfer the settlements affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident to normal life style. This is covered by the draft concept of the settlements’ transfer to normal life style.

  4. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  5. Secular trends in age at menarche among Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil: 1930-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H P; Padez, C

    2006-01-01

    The present study is part of a large research project on growth, development, nutrition, and health of Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this paper is to analyze the age of menarche in adolescents (N=164) and adult women (219) in the studied populations. Caboclo are admixed rural, peasant groups that live along the Amazon river and its tributaries, and there are few previous studies about them. Probit analysis of the status quo data yielded a median age at menarche of 12.29+/-1.76 years. The retrospective method was applied to recall data of the 77 post-menarcheal adolescents, yielding an average of 13.06+/-1.27 years. Number of children in the family did not show any statistical influence on age at menarche in any age group. In adult women, age at menarche decreased from 14.50 in those born in 1930 to 12.88 for those born in 1980 (F=4.371, P=0.001). The downward trend found was, on average, 0.237 year per decade in the study period. The median age at menarche in the adolescents (12.29 years) is one of the lowest values found for Central and South American populations. In the ecological context, a low age at menarche could be an adaptive advantage because it provides a greater chance for reproduction at a young age in an environment where, until recently, life expectancy was low. As has been reported for other developing countries, the change found in age at menarche in the women born from the 1930s to the 1980s is likely to be related to changes in health and nutritional factors that occurred in Brazil because this country experienced significant improvement in living standards related to education, vaccination, and health conditions, which, although not equally, reached all regions after the 1960s. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 18:83-92, 2006. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  6. Trend analysis and outcome prediction in mechanically ventilated patients: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Jang Lee

    Full Text Available To investigate the relationship between changes in patient attributes and hospital attributes over time and to explore predictors of medical utilization and mortality rates in mechanical ventilation (MV patients in Taiwan.Providing effective medical care for MV patients is challenging and requires good planning and effective clinical decision making policies. Most studies of MV, however, have only analyzed a single regional ventilator weaning center or respiratory care unit, high-quality population-based studies of MV trends and outcomes are scarce.This population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 213,945 MV patients treated during 2004-2009.During the study period, the percentages of MV patients with the following characteristics significantly increased: age ≦ 65 years, treatment at a medical center, and treatment by a high-volume physician. In contrast, the percentages of MV patients treated at local hospitals and by low-volume physicians significantly decreased (P<0.001. Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index, teaching hospital, hospital level, hospital volume, and physician volume were significantly associated with MV outcome (P<0.001. Over the 6-year period analyzed in this study, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 48.8% whereas mean length of stay decreased 13.9%. The estimated mean overall survival time for MV patients was 16.4 months (SD 0.4 months, and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 61.0%, 36.7%, 17.3%, and 9.6%, respectively.These population-based data revealed increases in the percentages of MV patients treated at medical centers and by high-volume physicians, especially in younger patients. Notably, although LOS for MV patients decreased, hospital treatment costs increased. Healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes.

  7. Trends in leisure time and work-related physical activity in the Spanish working population, 1987-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César

    2012-01-01

    To analyze time trends in the prevalence of leisure time (LTPA) and work-related (WRPA) physical activity between 1987 and 2006 in the Spanish working population. We analyzed data taken from the Spanish National Health Surveys for 1987 (n = 29,647), 1993 (n = 20,707), 1995-1997 (n = 12,800), 2001 (n = 21,058), 2003 (n = 21,650), and 2006 (n = 29,478). The main variables were LTPA and WRPA in working adults aged 18-64 years old. We analyzed sociodemographic characteristics, self-perceived health status, lifestyle habits and associated comorbidities using multivariate logistic regression models. The prevalences of LTPA and WRPA were lower in women than in men (p women; OR = 1.15, 95%CI: 1.02-1.31 for men) and WRPA (OR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.38-2.19 for women; OR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.44-1.91 for men) significantly increased from 1987 to 2006. In both genders, the variables associated with a higher likelihood of practicing LTPA were greater age, higher educational level and being an ex- or non-smoker, while negative predictors included being married, worse self-perceived health, and obesity. Factors that increased the probability of reporting WRPA were being married, worse self-rated health status, and sleeping > 8h per day. The only factor that reduced the probability of reporting WRPA was being an ex- or non-smoker. We found an increase in LTPA and WRPA in the last 20 years in the Spanish working population. Several factors were associated with a higher or lower likelihood of practicing LTPA or WRPA in this population. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Trends in the use and cost of human and analogue insulins in a Colombian population, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, D R; Portilla, A; Machado-Duque, M E; Machado-Alba, J E

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a common disease among the general population and imposes considerable costs on health care systems. Insulin is used to treat type 1 diabetes mellitus and as an adjuvant to oral agents in advanced stages of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective was to describe the trends in use and cost of human and analogue insulins for Colombian patients. Descriptive retrospective analysis of prescriptions of human and analogue insulins on a monthly basis for the period from July 1, 2011 to February 2, 2015. Information was collected for the database population of two insurance companies. Frequencies and proportions were calculated; estimated economic impact was expressed as net cost and cost per thousand inhabitants per day. During the observation period, there was continuous growth in use of insulin, mainly in analogue forms (34.0% growth). At the start of the study, 10.4% of subjects were using an analogue insulin; this figure was 62.6% at the end of the study. In 2012, the average cost per 1000 inhabitants/day was US$1.7 for analogue and US$0.8 for human insulins. At the end of the observation period these costs had risen to US$9.2 for analogue (441.1% increase) and fallen to US$0.5 for human insulin (58.3% decrease). There has been an increase in the unit cost and frequency of use of insulin analogues for anti-diabetic therapy in Colombian patients. Moreover, there is controversy over whether insulin analogues are a more cost-effective treatment than human insulins for the general diabetic population. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchakou, Aimilia; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-03-14

    To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Population based cohort study. England. More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  10. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  11. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994-2003): status and trends of populations and nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark H. Huff; Martin G. Raphael; Sherri L. Miller; S. Kim Nelson; Jim Baldwin

    2006-01-01

    The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for federal land in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on marbled murrelet ecology and present the monitoring...

  12. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast.

  13. Toward youth self-report of health and quality of life in population monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topolski, Tari D; Edwards, Todd C; Patrick, Donald L

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses population monitoring of youth health and quality of life, including the concepts used, methodological and practical criteria for indicators, and existing surveys and measures. Current population surveys of youth generally focus on poor health, such as disability or health-risk behaviors. Although these are important end points, indicators of illness or risk do not reflect the health or life perspective of the majority of youth who do not experience health problems. The measures used to monitor youth health should be appropriate and sensitive to future needs and capture the perspectives of youths. Two potential concepts for this "scorecard" are self-perceived health and quality of life, which have been shown to be useful in adults. For youth, the quality of life framework seems particularly relevant as it incorporates both positive and negative aspects of health and well-being and also captures salient aspects of health other than physical health, such as sense of self, social relationships, environment and culture, and life satisfaction.

  14. Medical And Genetic Monitoring of Population Around Semipalatinsk Test-site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kayupova, N.A.; Svyatova, G.S.; Abildinova, G.Zh.

    1998-01-01

    Up to present, there is no one positive opinion about the effect of a small amount of ionizing radiation doses on the genetic system of a human being. In connection with it, the all-round medical and genetic researches conducted by a united methodical basis and intended to study general mutagen and teratogen radiation effects are of a certain significance. With that end in view, the medical and genetic testing of a number of rural population around Semipalatinsk test-site (STS) was conducted. The all-round methods of medical and genetic consequences evaluation were developed, and 'active revealing of the congenital fetation disease (CFD)' method was submitted for consideration. Aside from analysis of the general genetic and demographic data, outcomes of more than 160.000 confinements were studied, and a high frequency rate of the CFD of 'the strict recording' (6.11 per 1000 new-born children in areas of extreme radiation hazard) was discovered, that surely exceeded the similar index for the monitored areas (2.92 per 1000 new-born children). A higher frequency rate of the Down's syndrome and numerous CFD (1.66 and 1.07 per 1000 new-born children accordingly) were revealed as well. As a result of the cytogenetic monitoring of the tested population, it was ascertained that a total frequency rate of the aberrant cell emergence was equal to 4.9 per 100 cells, that is 3.9 times as much than the similar index for the monitored area. A high frequency rate of the markers induced by radiation was discovered, which proved the increased mutagen effect of the environment. Biological presentation of the radiation effect on population was conducted in two methods of the biological monitoring, and according to the frequency rate of the chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes of peripheral blood, that are induced by radiation, and electro paramagnetic resonance of teeth enamel (Kazakhstan national Nuclear Center). The results of the medical and genetic research conducted were an

  15. Toward objective monitoring of ingestive behavior in free-living population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Edward S; Schuckers, Stephanie A C; Lopez-Meyer, Paulo; Makeyev, Oleksandr; Melanson, Edward L; Neuman, Michael R; Hill, James O

    2009-10-01

    Understanding of eating behaviors associated with obesity requires objective and accurate monitoring of food intake patterns. Accurate methods are available for measuring total energy expenditure and its components in free-living populations, but methods for measuring food intake in free-living people are far less accurate and involve self-reporting or subjective monitoring. We suggest that chews and swallows can be used for objective monitoring of ingestive behavior. This hypothesis was verified in a human study involving 20 subjects. Chews and swallows were captured during periods of quiet resting, talking, and meals of varying size. The counts of chews and swallows along with other derived metrics were used to build prediction models for detection of food intake, differentiation between liquids and solids, and for estimation of the mass of ingested food. The proposed prediction models were able to detect periods of food intake with >95% accuracy and a fine time resolution of 30 s, differentiate solid foods from liquids with >91% accuracy, and predict mass of ingested food with >91% accuracy for solids and >83% accuracy for liquids. In earlier publications, we have shown that chews and swallows can be captured by noninvasive sensors that could be developed into a wearable device. Thus, the proposed methodology could lead to the development of an innovative new way of assessing human eating behavior in free-living conditions.

  16. Trends in dietary patterns of Latin American populations Tendencias en el consumo de alimentos en poblaciones latinoamericanas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odilia I. Bermudez

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to characterize the level and magnitude of changes in food consumption patterns in Latin American populations as they undergo demographic and developmental transitions because of the effects of such changes on the development and progression of chronic diseases. This paper examines trends in food intake across regions in Latin America. Although trends in apparent food consumption differ in magnitude and timing, the overall patterns of change are remarkably consistent. Intakes of total fat, animal products, and sugar are increasing, even while there have been rapid declines in the intake of cereals, fruit, and some vegetables. The costs of the increased prevalence of chronic disease associated with these dietary changes are already affecting health systems still coping with malnutrition and infectious disease. Because this pattern of change is predictable, it is important to learn from the experiences gained in countries that are more advanced in the transition. Efforts to educate the population on the importance of a healthy diet and to issue policies to improve the availability of a healthy food supply can help to reduce the rapid escalation of obesity and chronic diseases.A la vez que las poblaciones latinoamericanas atraviesan por sus transiciones demográficas y de desarrollo, es importante caracterizar las dimensiones de los cambios que se producen simultáneamente en los patrones de consumo de alimentos de estas poblaciones. Este trabajo examina las tendencias en consumo de alimentos en América Latina, aunque estas tendencias se diferencian en tiempo de ocurrencia y magnitud, los patrones globales son muy consistentes. El consumo de grasas totales, productos animales y azúcares está en aumento y al mismo tiempo se está disminuyendo la ingesta de cereales, frutas y algunos vegetales. Los costos de la creciente prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas asociadas con estos cambios en el consumo están afectando a los sistemas

  17. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn B Meyer

    Full Text Available Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix, common buzzard (Buteo buteo, and red kite (Milvus milvus. We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species and poisons (4-46% of mortality reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe, stable for buzzard (in Germany, and increasing for red kite (in Wales. Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%. The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently

  18. A review of the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for monitoring population levels of alcohol consumption: a Scottish perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Mark; Thorpe, Rachel; Beeston, Clare; McCartney, Gerry

    2013-01-01

    To assess the validity and reliability of using alcohol retail sales data to measure and monitor population levels of alcohol consumption. Potential sources of bias that could lead to under- or overestimation of population alcohol consumption based on alcohol retail sales data were identified and, where possible, quantified. This enabled an assessment of the potential impact of each bias on alcohol consumption estimates in Scotland. Overall, considering all the possible sources of overestimation and underestimation, and taking into account the potential for sampling variability to impact on the results, the range of uncertainty of consumption during 2010 was from an overestimate of 0.3 l to an underestimate of 2.4 l of pure alcohol per adult. This excludes the impacts of alcohol stockpiling and alcohol sold through outlets not included in the sampling frame. On balance, there is therefore far greater scope for alcohol retail sales data to be underestimating per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland than there is for overestimation. Alcohol retail sales data offer a robust source of data for monitoring per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland. Consideration of the sources of bias and a comprehensive understanding of data collection methods are essential for using sales data to monitor trends in alcohol consumption.

  19. Monitoring of arrhythmia and sudden death in a hemodialysis population: The CRASH-ILR Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R Roberts

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that sudden cardiac death (SCD contributes around 50% of cardiovascular and 27% of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients. The true burden of arrhythmias and arrhythmic deaths in this population, however, remains poorly characterised. Cardio Renal Arrhythmia Study in Hemodialysis (CRASH-ILR is a prospective, implantable loop recorder single centre study of 30 established hemodialysis patients and one of the first to provide long-term ambulatory ECG monitoring.30 patients (60% male aged 68±12 years receiving hemodialysis for 45±40 months with varied etiology (diabetes 37%, hypertension 23% and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF 55±8% received a Reveal XT implantable loop recorder (Medtronic, USA between August 2011 and October 2014. ECG data from loop recorders were transmitted at each hemodialysis session using a remote monitoring system. Primary outcome was SCD or implantation of a (tachy or bradyarrhythmia controlling device and secondary outcome, the development of arrhythmia necessitating medical intervention.During 379,512 hours of continuous ECG monitoring (mean 12,648±9,024 hours/patient, there were 8 deaths-2 SCD and 6 due to generalised deterioration/sepsis. 5 (20% patients had a primary outcome event (2 SCD, 3 pacemaker implantations for bradyarrhythmia. 10 (33% patients reached an arrhythmic primary or secondary end point. Median event free survival for any arrhythmia was 2.6 years (95% confidence intervals 1.6-3.6 years.The findings confirm the high mortality rate seen in hemodialysis populations and contrary to initial expectations, bradyarrhythmias emerged as a common and potentially significant arrhythmic event.

  20. Tobacco price increases and population interest in smoking cessation in Japan between 2004 and 2016: a Google Trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabuchi, Takahiro; Fukui, Keisuke; Gallus, Silvano

    2018-01-31

    Tobacco price increases can generate increased public interest in smoking cessation, but it is not clear how long this interest lasts. Our objective was to evaluate the duration of the impact of cigarette price increase in Japan using Google search data. Monthly or daily aggregated Google search volume for smoking cessation in Japan from 2004 to 2016 was collected in terms of relative search volume (RSV) ranging from 0-100. Using monthly RSV data, we evaluated possible relationships between the RSVs and tobacco control measures in Japan. Time periods within which the impact of search volume significantly increased were identified by cluster detection test, using daily RSV data. A spike in RSV preceding the enforcement of a cigarette price increase revealed an anticipation effect. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest monthly RSV spikes were observed in July 2006 (RSV=66), when cigarette prices increased by 11%, and in September (RSV=90) and October 2010 (RSV=100), when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Regarding daily RSV, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 (52 days) was longer than that in 2006 (17 days). In 2010, a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. After the onset of the price increase, a cluster of 27 days was detected. When the cigarette price increased due to consumption tax in April 2014, almost no anticipation effect was observed. The population impact of tobacco price increases on smoking cessation may be assessed using Google Trends data. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer-lasting effect on population interest in cessation, but the impact may continue for a relatively short time. To examine the duration of the impact of cigarette price increases on population interest in smoking cessation in Japan, Google search data for smoking cessation was analyzed. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest spikes of

  1. Adelie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon N Jarman

    Full Text Available The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  2. Adélie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarman, Simon N; McInnes, Julie C; Faux, Cassandra; Polanowski, Andrea M; Marthick, James; Deagle, Bruce E; Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise

    2013-01-01

    The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA) sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  3. Effect Of Gender And Lifestyle Behaviors On BMI Trends In A Sample Of The First State's Undergraduate Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Malcolm J; Walls, Karri-Jo E; Rojas, Christine; Everett, Lynn M; Wentzien, Derald E

    2015-06-01

    The 2010 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report indicates that 63.4% of Delaware's adult population is overweight and 28% is obese. Here, the authors reveal analyses acquired from detailed investigations about the importance of gender, and other lifestyle factors and behaviors on the Body Mass Index (BMI) trends amongst an indiscriminate sample of the Wesley College (Wesley) undergraduate population. A 25-question paper-format survey was distributed to 307 randomly chosen Wesley undergraduates. The accrued qualitative (or categorical) data were transferred to an Excel spreadsheet to construct and observe frequency distributions. A Chi-square test of independence (χ 2 ) was performed between BMI status (normal, overweight, obese) and the following factors: gender, diet plan, adherence to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) MyPlate nutrition guide, use of the seasonal flu shot, weekly workout schedule, supplement usage, participation on athletic teams, questioning of label nutritional facts, and the use of added salt in food. A 2-sample proportion test was performed between students who were overweight or obese for the same factors. Also performed were t-tests for mean BMI for those who followed USDA MyPlate guidelines and for those who did not. An analysis of 278 completed surveys show that 29.5% of the Wesley respondents are overweight and 19.8% are obese. The mean BMI for males was statistically higher than the mean BMI for females. The mean BMI for students living on-campus was statistically higher than the mean BMI for students living off-campus. The results also demonstrate that adhering to the USDA dietary recommendations for fruit and dairy can be important factors in reducing the risk of obesity.

  4. Monitoring the establishment and prevalence of the fungal entomopathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in two Lymantria dispar L. populations in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Pilarska; M. McManus; P. Pilarska; G. Georgiev; P. Mirchev; A. Linde

    2005-01-01

    The establishment and prevalence of the entomopathogenic fungus Entomophaga maimaiga, (Zygomycetes, Entomophthorales), introduced into two gypsy moth populations in Bulgaria, was monitored during 2000-2004. In the Karlovo Region population, where E. maimaiga was introduced in 1999, the fungus was recovered every year and the...

  5. Population based trends in mortality, morbidity and treatment for very preterm- and very low birth weight infants over 12 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüegger Christoph

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last two decades, improvements in medical care have been associated with a significant increase and better outcome of very preterm (VP, Methods Our population-based observational cohort study used the Minimal Neonatal Data Set, a database maintained by the Swiss Society of Neonatology including information of all VP- and VLBW infants. Perinatal characteristics, mortality and morbidity rates and the survival free of major complications were analysed and their temporal trends evaluated. Results In 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008, a total number of 3090 infants were enrolled in the Network Database. At the same time the rate of VP- and VLBW neonates increased significantly from 0.87% in 1996 to 1.10% in 2008 (p Conclusions Over the 12-year observation period, the number of VP- and VLBW infants increased significantly. An unchanged overall mortality rate and an increase of survivors free of major complication resulted in a considerable net gain in infants with potentially good outcome.

  6. Evaluation of the Trends, Concomitant Procedures, and Complications With Open and Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs in the Medicare Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Andrew R.; Cha, Peter S.; Devana, Sai K.; Ishmael, Chad; Di Pauli von Treuheim, Theo; D’Oro, Anthony; Wang, Jeffrey C.; McAllister, David R.; Petrigliano, Frank A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Medicare insures the largest population of patients at risk for rotator cuff tears in the United States. Purpose: To evaluate the trends in incidence, concomitant procedures, and complications with open and arthroscopic rotator cuff repairs in Medicare patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All Medicare patients who had undergone open or arthroscopic rotator cuff repair from 2005 through 2011 were identified with a claims database. Annual incidence, concomitant procedures, and postoperative complications were compared between these 2 groups. Results: In total, 372,109 rotator cuff repairs were analyzed. The incidence of open repairs decreased (from 6.0 to 4.3 per 10,000 patients, P repairs increased (from 4.5 to 7.8 per 10,000 patients, P rotator cuff repairs have increased in incidence and now represent the majority of rotator cuff repair surgery. Among concomitant procedures, subacromial decompression was most commonly performed despite evidence suggesting a lack of efficacy. Infections and stiffness were rare complications that were slightly but significantly more frequent in open rotator cuff repairs. PMID:29051905

  7. Autism phenotype versus registered diagnosis in Swedish children: prevalence trends over 10 years in general population samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundström, Sebastian; Reichenberg, Abraham; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Gillberg, Christopher

    2015-04-28

    To compare the annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype and of registered diagnoses for autism spectrum disorder during a 10 year period in children. Population based study. Child and Adolescent Twin Study and national patient register, Sweden. 19, 993 twins (190 with autism spectrum disorder) and all children (n=1,078,975; 4620 with autism spectrum disorder) born in Sweden over a 10 year period from 1993 to 2002. Annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype (that is, symptoms on which the diagnostic criteria are based) assessed by a validated parental telephone interview (the Autism-Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities inventory), and annual prevalence of reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register. The annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype was stable during the 10 year period (P=0.87 for linear time trend). In contrast, there was a monotonic significant increase in prevalence of registered diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register (Pautism symptom phenotype has remained stable in children in Sweden while the official prevalence for registered, clinically diagnosed, autism spectrum disorder has increased substantially. This suggests that administrative changes, affecting the registered prevalence, rather than secular factors affecting the pathogenesis, are important for the increase in reported prevalence of autism spectrum disorder. © Lundström et al 2015.

  8. Adult Brain Cancer in the U.S. Black Population: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Analysis of Incidence, Survival, and Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Abigail; Batey, Jason; Capogreco, Joseph; Kimball, David; Walters, Andy; Tubbs, R. Shane; Loukas, Marios

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite much epidemiological research on brain cancer in the United States, the etiology for the various subtypes remains elusive. The black population in the United States currently experiences lower incidence but higher survival rates when compared to other races. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the trends in incidence and survival for the 6 most common primary brain tumors in the black population of the United States. Material/Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, an...

  9. Secular Trends in Utilization of Critical Care Services Among Candidemia-Associated Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-01-01

    half of the last decade. Substantial heterogeneity was noted in the rate of rise in the incidence of C-ICU across examined age groups. Further study in other populations is required to corroborate our findings and examine the sources of the observed trends.

  10. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    , opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

  11. Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2017-01-01

    Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4

  12. Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

    2001-09-01

    This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

  13. Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvenet, Marion; Cottet, Vanessa; Lepage, Côme; Jooste, Valérie; Faivre, Jean; Bouvier, Anne-Marie

    2011-06-30

    France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period) than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%). It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1%) and decreased in females (-5.2%). It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7%) and in females (-2.0%). The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950). It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7%) as for those born around 1930 (2.7%) and then slightly increased (2.9%) for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high-risk groups or after a positive faecal occult blood test.

  14. Trends in colorectal cancer incidence: a period and birth-cohort analysis in a well-defined French population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faivre Jean

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background France stands among high-risk areas for colorectal cancer. Different trends in CRC incidence are reported around the world. The aim of this study was to provide temporal trends in CRC incidence over a 30-year period in a French well-defined population. Methods Between 1976 and 2005, 17,028 new cases were registered by the Burgundy digestive cancer registry. The mean variations in age-standardized incidence rates were estimated using a Poisson regression adjusted for age for each gender and location. The cumulative risk by birth cohort of developing a cancer over the age range 0-74 years was estimated using an age-cohort model. Results Incidence rates for right and left colon cancers increased more rapidly in males (respectively +11.7% and +10.3% on average by 5-year period than in females (respectively +5.9% and +6.1%. It remained stable for sigmoid cancers in males (-0.1% and decreased in females (-5.2%. It also decreased for rectal cancers both in males (-2.7% and in females (-2.0%. The cumulative risk increased from 3.9% for males born around 1900 to 4.9% for those born around 1930 and then slightly decreased (4.5% among those born around 1950. It remained at the same level for females born around 1900 (2.7% as for those born around 1930 (2.7% and then slightly increased (2.9% for those born around 1950. For right colon cancers, the cumulative risk increased strikingly in successive birth cohorts from 0.53% to 1.2% in males and 0.55% to 0.77% in females. The corresponding cumulative risks for the left colon were 0.24% and 0.42% in males and 0.14% and 0.29% in females. For sigmoid cancer, they decreased from 1.59% to 1.08% in males, and 0.88% to 0.80% in females. Conclusion Temporal variations in incidence rates of colorectal cancers differed according to subsite, suggesting different aetiological factors and implications for diagnosis and screening strategies. Total colonoscopy must be the preferred strategy in high

  15. U.S. NO2 trends (2005-2013): EPA Air Quality System (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Streets, David G.; Lu, Zifeng

    2015-06-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO2 levels have decreased by 30-40% in the last decade. We quantify NO2 trends (2005-2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. We demonstrate that the current OMI NO2 algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence of trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO2 concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NOx emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO2 standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO2 reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO2 VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly

  16. Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

    2011-01-01

    sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

  17. Monitoring of East Channel dredge areas benthic fish population and its implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drabble, Ray

    2012-01-01

    Regional annual sampling of commercial fish stocks formed a high priority for monitoring studies attendant with the granting of aggregate dredging licenses in the Eastern Channel Region (ECR) which had previously not been dredged. An assessment of 4 m beam trawl sampling between 2005 and 2008 following the granting of licences in 2006 is provided. The majority of fish species have shown marked reductions in abundance since commencement of dredging. Draghead entrainment has been identified as a possible contributory cause based upon the known vulnerability of selected species (). Other environmental factors considered offer no explanation for the changes in abundance. Comparative analyses with ICES data for plaice and sole over the study period demonstrate that changes in the ECR do not result from seasonal flux in the wider populations. An alternative impact model and potential mitigation measures are suggested.

  18. A Mobile Application for Monitoring and Management of Depressed Mood in a Vulnerable Pregnant Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantsoo, Liisa; Criniti, Stephanie; Khan, Annum; Moseley, Marian; Kincler, Naomi; Faherty, Laura J; Epperson, C Neill; Bennett, Ian M

    2018-01-01

    This study tested whether a mood tracking and alert (MTA) mobile application (app) improved mental health care delivery in a high-risk obstetric population. Pregnant women with depressive symptomatology at <32 weeks gestation were followed for eight weeks after randomization to a control patient portal (PP) app alone or with the MTA app. The MTA app monitored activity, assessed mood, and alerted obstetric providers of signs of worsening mood. Seventy-two women enrolled (PP, N=24; MTA, N=48). MTA users had significantly more contacts addressing mental health, and as gestational age increased, they rated ability to manage their own health significantly better than women in the control group. Women who received telephone contact from a provider triggered by an MTA app alert were significantly more likely to receive a mental health specialist referral. A mobile MTA app improved service delivery and patient engagement among patients with perinatal depression symptoms.

  19. On the general principles of health monitoring of population living in NPP environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrov, P.

    1991-01-01

    The basic principles of health monitoring and its significance as a source of information for the organization and regulation of health control are pointed out. Attention is drawn to the surveillance and quantitative evaluation of the factors affecting individuals, as well as their consequencies. The necessity of determining the real health status of the population, as well as of forecasting its future changes and of evaluating the prognosticated changes is stressed. The nosologic units and classes of diseases, relevant to radiation action, should be put into constant observation. Special attention is paid to the study of demographic indices, congenital malformations, neoplasms of thyroid, lungs, leucoses, osteosarcomas, reproduction ability based on data for sterile marriages, spontaneous abortions, death-borns and perinatal lethality. 9 refs., 1 tab

  20. Temporal and basin-specific population trends of quagga mussels on soft sediment of a multi-basin reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Timothy J; Rosen, Michael R.; Chandra, Sudeep; Acharya, Kumud; Caires, Andrea M; Davis, Clinton J.; Thaw, Melissa; Webster, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    Invasive quagga (Dreissena bugnesis) and zebra (Dreissena ploymorpha) mussels have rapidly spread throughout North America. Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and quagga mussels during the early stages of invasion will help management strategies and allow researchers to predict patterns of future invasions. Quagga mussels were detected in Lake Mead, NV/AZ in 2007, we monitored early invasion dynamics in 3 basins (Boulder Basin, Las Vegas Bay, Overton Arm) bi-annually from 2008-2011. Mean quagga density increased over time during the first year of monitoring and stabilized for the subsequent two years at the whole-lake scale (8 to 132 individuals·m-2, geometric mean), in Boulder Basin (73 to 875 individuals·m-2), and in Overton Arm(2 to 126 individuals·m-2). In Las Vegas Bay, quagga mussel density was low (9 to 44 individuals·m-2), which was correlated with high sediment metal concentrations and warmer (> 30°C) water temperatures associated with that basin. Carbon content in the sediment increased with depth in Lake Mead and during some sampling periods quagga density was also positively correlated with depth, but more research is required to determine the significance of this interaction. Laboratory growth experiments suggested that food quantity may limit quagga growth in Boulder Basin, indicating an opportunity for population expansion in this basin if primary productivity were to increase, but was not the case in Overton Arm. Overall quagga mussel density in Lake Mead is highly variable and patchy, suggesting that temperature, sediment size, and sediment metal concentrations, and sediment carbon content all contribute to mussel distribution patterns. Quagga mussel density in the soft sediment of Lake Mead expanded during initial colonization, and began to stabilize approximately 3 years after the initial invasion.

  1. WHITE-CLAWED CRAYFISH IN MUDDY HABITATS: MONITORING THE POPULATION IN THE RIVER IVEL, BEDFORDSHIRE, UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PEAY S.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available White-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes are usually associated with stony substrates, tree roots, or refuges in submerged banks. The River Ivel has the last known population of white-clawed crayfish in Bedfordshire. Prior to 2005, much of the bed comprised uniform silt, plus leaf-litter. Stands of reedmace Typha latifolia and other emergent vegetation were localised in less shaded areas. Initial survey results suggested a population at low abundance. A low-cost monitoring strategy was started in 2001 and continued three times a year to 2005, using engineering bricks, which offer artificial refuges. Crayfish are counted when bricks are lifted periodically. De-silting of c. 430 m river was carried out in February 2005, to improve habitat and to maintain the flood capacity in the channel upstream of a mill weir. Additional bricks were deployed a few weeks in advance of de-silting, then bricks and crayfish were lifted prior to dredging and were returned the next day. Starting upstream, soft, wet mud was dredged out, placed on the bank and searched manually for crayfish. Banks, tree roots and shallow margins were left undisturbed. In all, 4,142 crayfish were found in dredgings from a 430 m length of the mid channel. Crayfish were strongly associated with emergent vegetation, but many were present below the surface of the silt. Crayfish released in the dredged channel immediately burrowed into the silt retained on the channel margins. Monitoring after dredging showed no change in abundance in the main area with in-bank refuges and lots of bricks, but there was an increase in occupancy of bricks in an area where most crayfish had been in emergent vegetation.

  2. Monitoring serum PCB levels in the adult population of the Canary Islands (Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Burillo-Putze

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs are persistent organic chemicals that have been detected in human serum or tissues all over the world. These pollutants could exert a number of deleterious effects on humans and wildlife, including carcinogenic processes. The Spanish population of the Canary Islands was evaluated with respect to PCB levels more than ten years ago showing lower levels than other Western populations. The objective of our study was to assess the current level of contamination by PCBs showed by this population. We measured serum PCBs in a sample of healthy adult subjects (206 serum samples from subjects with an average age of 66 years old to evaluate the potential modification of PCB serum levels in this population during the last decade. PCB congeners (28, 52, 77, 81, 101, 105, 114, 118, 123, 126, 138, 153, 156, 157, 167, 169, 180, and 189 were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS. Our results showed that PCB residues were found in 84% of serum samples analyzed, the congeners 28, 153 and 180 being the most frequently detected and at the highest median values (0.1 ng/mL. In addition, the median concentration of the sum of those PCBs considered as markers of environmental contamination by these chemicals (Marker-PCBs was 0.6 ng/mL, reaching values as high as as 2.6 ng/mL in the 95th percentile. Levels of the sum of PCBs with toxic effects similar to dioxins (dioxin-like PCBs reached median values of 0.4 ng/mL in the 95th percentile. The reported levels are similar to those described previously in this population more than ten years ago, in the sense that the inhabitants of the Canary Archipelago show levels of PCB contamination lower than the majority of populations from developed countries. These findings suggest that currently there is not any active source of these chemicals in this archipelago. Nevertheless, as foods seem to be a relevant source for these compounds, Public Health authorities should monitor the

  3. A Multisampling Reporter System for Monitoring MicroRNA Activity in the Same Population of Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Chen Huang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs downregulate gene expression by binding to the partially complementary sites in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR of target mRNAs. Several methods, such as Northern blot analysis, quantitative real-time RT-PCR, microarray, and the luciferase reporter system, are commonly used to quantify the relative level or activity of miRNAs. The disadvantage of these methods is the requirement for cell lysis, which means that several sets of wells/dishes of cells must be prepared to monitor changes in miRNA activity in time-course studies. In this study, we developed a multisampling reporter system in which two secretable bioluminescence-generating enzymes are employed, one as a reporter and the other as an internal control. The reporters consist of a pair of vectors containing the Metridia luciferase gene, one with and one without a duplicated miRNA targeting sequence at their 3′UTR, while the other vector coding for the secreted alkaline phosphatase gene is used as an internal control. This method allows miRNA activity to be monitored within the same population of cells over time by withdrawing aliquots of the culture medium. The practicability and benefits of this system are addressed in this report.

  4. Long-term ingestion dose monitoring in a population group with increased 137Cs intake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartuskova, M.; Lusnak, J.; Malatova, I.; Pfeiferova, V.; Pospisilova, H.

    2008-01-01

    137 Cs amounts and ingestion doses in Czech population have been monitored by whole-body counting since the Chernobyl accident. Indirect estimation of the retention through measurement of 137 Cs excreted with urine in 24 hours has also been performed since 1987. The 137 Cs content in human body can be calculated from the urine data provided that the intake of 137 Cs during the period of interest is constant. In a semi-natural environment, the 137 Cs content in mushrooms, wild berries and game decreases due to its natural decay solely. The 137 Cs content in people who mostly consume venison and have been living in an area with elevated contamination has been monitored, mostly through measurement of 137 Cs in urine. In parallel, measurements with a mobile whole-body counter have also been performed. Currently, annual doses from the ingestion of 137 Cs in the inhabitants are very low (0.001 to 0.002 mSv.year -1 ). In a group of hunters in the Jeseniky Mountains (Northern Moravia) the doses were estimated to 0.10 mSv.year -1 . (orig.)

  5. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time. © 2015 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  6. Health Information Brokers in the General Population: An Analysis of the Health Information National Trends Survey 2013-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutrona, Sarah L; Mazor, Kathleen M; Agunwamba, Amenah A; Valluri, Sruthi; Wilson, Patrick M; Sadasivam, Rajani S; Finney Rutten, Lila J

    2016-06-03

    Health information exchanged between friends or family members can influence decision making, both for routine health questions and for serious health issues. A health information broker is a person to whom friends and family turn for advice or information on health-related topics. Characteristics and online behaviors of health information brokers have not previously been studied in a national population. The objective of this study was to examine sociodemographic characteristics, health information seeking behaviors, and other online behaviors among health information brokers. Data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (2013-2014; n=3142) were used to compare brokers with nonbrokers. Modified Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between broker status and sociodemographics and online information seeking. Over half (54.8%) of the respondents were consulted by family or friends for advice or information on health topics (ie, they acted as health information brokers). Brokers represented 54.1% of respondents earning brokers (PR 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.47) as were those with education past high school (PR 1.42, CI 1.22-1.65). People aged ≥75 were less likely to be brokers as compared to respondents aged 35-49 (PR 0.81, CI 0.67-0.99). Brokers used the Internet more frequently for a variety of online behaviors such as seeking health information, creating and sharing online content, and downloading health information onto a mobile device; and also reported greater confidence in obtaining health information online. More than 50% of adults who responded to this national survey, including those with low income and those born abroad, were providing health information or advice to friends and family. These individuals may prove to be effective targets for initiatives supporting patient engagement and disease management, and may also be well-positioned within their respective social networks to propagate health messages.

  7. Dworshak Reservoir kokanee population monitoring: project progress report, 1999 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiolie, Melo; Vidergar, Dmitri T.; Harryman, Bill

    2001-01-01

    We used split-beam hydroacoustics and trawling to monitor the kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka population in Dworshak Reservoir during 1999. Estimated abundance of kokanee has continued to increase since the high entrainment losses in the spring of 1996. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 1,545,000 kokanee and rainbow trout O. mykiss in Dworshak Reservoir during July 1999. This included 1,144,000 age-0 kokanee (90% CI ± 42%), 212,000 age-1 kokanee (90% CI ± 15%), and 189,000 age-2 kokanee and stocked rainbow trout (90% CI ± 39%). Rainbow trout could not be distinguished from the age-2 kokanee in the echograms since they were of similar size. Age-0 kokanee ranged in length from 40 mm to 90 mm, age-1 from 193 mm to 212 mm, and age-2 kokanee from 219 mm to 336 mm. These sizes indicated kokanee are still growing well. Discharge of water from Dworshak Dam during 1999 did not stop the expansion of the kokanee population based on these results. Counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams exceeded 11,000 fish. This index also showed a marked increase from last year's 660 spawning kokanee or the 1997 total of 144 spawning kokanee

  8. Looking Without Landing—Using Remote Piloted Aircraft to Monitor Fur Seal Populations Without Disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca R. McIntosh

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Technical advances in monitoring devices, specifically drones, are allowing managers and scientists to obtain quality information on ecosystem health with minimal disturbance to ecosystems and the wildlife they support. Temporal and spatial indicators of ecosystem health, such as population size and/or abundance estimates of marine mammals are the basis for our understanding and prediction of ecosystem change. This is critical for the achievement of conservation goals and sustainable natural resources use. Performing surveys to obtain abundance estimates can be logistically demanding and expensive particularly in offshore marine environments, and can cause significant disturbance to wildlife. These constraints may lead to sub-optimal monitoring programs that reduce the frequency and/or precision of surveys at the cost of data quality and confidence in the resulting analyses. Using Remote Piloted Aircraft (RPA can be a solution to this challenge. With appropriate testing and ethical consideration; for many situations, RPAs can perform surveys with increased frequency, higher data resolution and less disturbance than typical methods that involve people being present on the ground, thereby enabling more robust programs for monitoring. We demonstrate the process of testing images from RPAs for estimating the abundance of Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus at one of their largest colonies on Seal Rocks, Australia. Two sizes of multirotor (1,400 and 350 mm with different imaging equipment were tested at 40, 60, and 80 m altitude above sea level. We assessed wildlife disturbance levels and optimized a methodology for effective and economical monitoring of this site. We employed commercially available and open-source software for programming survey flights (Drone Deploy, image processing (Agisoft Photoscan and Autopano Giga, data collation and analyses (R and Python. An online portal “SealSpotter” was developed to facilitate data

  9. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  10. Monitoring the impact of trade agreements on national food environments: trade imports and population nutrition risks in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravuvu, Amerita; Friel, Sharon; Thow, Anne-Marie; Snowdon, Wendy; Wate, Jillian

    2017-06-13

    Trade agreements are increasingly recognised as playing an influential role in shaping national food environments and the availability and nutritional quality of the food supply. Global monitoring of food environments and trade policies can strengthen the evidence base for the impact of trade policy on nutrition, and support improved policy coherence. Using the INFORMAS trade monitoring protocol, we reviewed available food supply data to understand associations between Fiji's commitments under WTO trade agreements and food import volume trends. First, a desk review was conducted to map and record in one place Fiji's commitments to relevant existing trade agreements that have implications for Fiji's national food environment under the domains of the INFORMAS trade monitoring protocol. An excel database was developed to document the agreements and their provisions. The second aspect of the research focused on data extraction. We began with identifying food import volumes into Fiji by country of origin, with a particular focus on a select number of 'healthy and unhealthy' foods. We also developed a detailed listing of transnational food corporations currently operating in Fiji. The study suggests that Fiji's WTO membership, in conjunction with associated economic and agricultural policy changes have contributed to increased availability of both healthy and less healthy imported foods. In systematically monitoring the import volume trends of these two categories of food, the study highlights an increase in healthy foods such as fresh fruits and vegetables and whole-grain refined cereals. The study also shows that there has been an increase in less healthy foods including fats and oils; meat; processed dairy products; energy-dense beverages; and processed and packaged foods. By monitoring the trends of imported foods at country level from the perspective of trade agreements, we are able to develop appropriate and targeted interventions to improve diets and health. This

  11. Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Yang, Wen-Hsi; Arab, Ali

    2016-01-01

    A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

  12. Sound solutions for habitat monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary M. Rowland; Lowell H. Suring; Christina D. Vojta

    2015-01-01

    For agencies and organizations to effectively manage wildlife, knowledge about the status and trend of wildlife habitat is critical. Traditional wildlife monitoring, however, has focused on populations rather than habitat, because ultimately population status drives long-term species viability. Still, habitat loss has contributed to the decline of nearly all at-risk...

  13. Trends in DDT and pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae s.s. populations from urban and agro-industrial settings in southern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerah-Hinzoumbé Clément

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pyrethroid insecticides are widely used for insect pest control in Cameroon. In certain insect species, particularly the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, resistance to this class of insecticides is a source of great concern and needs to be monitored in order to sustain the efficacy of vector control operations in the fields. This study highlights trends in DDT and pyrethroid resistance in wild An. gambiae populations from South Cameroon. Methods Mosquitoes were collected between 2001 and 2007 in four sites in South Cameroon, where insecticides are used for agricultural or personal protection purposes. Insecticide use was documented in each site by interviewing residents. Batches of 2-4 days old adult female mosquitoes reared from larval collections were tested for susceptibility to DDT, permethrin and deltamethrin using standard WHO procedures. Control, dead and survivors mosquitoes from bioassays were identified by PCR-RFLP and characterized for the kdr mutations using either the AS-PCR or the HOLA method. Results Four chemical insecticide groups were cited in the study sites: organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates and pyrethroids. These chemicals were used for personal, crop or wood protection. In the four An. gambiae populations tested, significant variation in resistance levels, molecular forms composition and kdr frequencies were recorded in the time span of the study. Increases in DDT and pyrethroid resistance, as observed in most areas, were generally associated with an increase in the relative frequency of the S molecular form carrying the kdr mutations at higher frequencies. In Mangoum, however, where only the S form was present, a significant increase in the frequency of kdr alleles between 2003 to 2007 diverged with a decrease of the level of resistance to DDT and pyrethroids. Analyses of the kdr frequencies in dead and surviving mosquitoes showed partial correlation between the kdr genotypes and resistance

  14. Trends in serum creatinine testing in Oxfordshire, UK, 1993-2013: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oke, Jason; Shine, Brian; McFadden, Emily; Stevens, Richard; Lasserson, Daniel; Perera, Rafael

    2015-12-16

    To determine how many kidney function tests are done, on whom, how frequently they are performed and how they have changed over time. Retrospective study of all serum creatinine, urine albumin and urine creatinine tests. Primary and secondary care in Oxfordshire from 1993 to 2013. Unselected population of 1,220,447 people. The total number of creatinine and urinary protein tests ordered from primary and secondary care and the number of tests per year stratified by categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The frequency of testing in patients having their kidney function monitored. Creatinine requests from primary care increased steadily from 1997 and exceeded 220,000 requests in 2013. Tests corresponding to normal kidney function (eGFR >60/mL/min/1.73 m(2)) constituted 59% of all kidney function tests in 1993 and accounted for 83% of all tests in 2013. Test corresponding to chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5 declined after 2007. Reduced kidney function, albuminuria, male gender, diabetes and age were independently associated with more frequent monitoring. For a female patient between 61 and 80 years and with stage 3a CKD, the average number of serum creatinine tests (95% CI) was 3.23/year (3.19 to 3.26) and for a similar woman with diabetes, the average number of tests was 5.50 (5.44 to 5.56) tests per year. There has been a large increase in the number of kidney function tests over the past two decades. However, we found little evidence that this increase is detecting more CKD. Tests are becoming more frequent in people with and without evidence of renal impairment. Future work using a richer data source could help unravel the underlying reasons for the increased testing and determine how much is necessary and useful. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  15. Cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in animal feed and feed materials – trend analysis of monitoring results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adamse, Paulien; Fels, van der Ine; Jong, de Jacob

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to obtain insights into the presence of cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in feed materials and feed over time for the purpose of guiding national monitoring. Data from the Dutch feed monitoring programme and from representatives of the feed industry during the period 2007–13

  16. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubail, Aurore, E-mail: aaubail@yahoo.fr [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France); Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Simon-Bouhet, Benoit; Caurant, Florence [Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France)

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ({sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and nitrogen ({sup 15}N/{sup 14}N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in {delta}{sup 15}N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in {delta}{sup 13}C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  17. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid populations: cod, haddock, whiting, and Norway pout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marty, Lise; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Ernande, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    , phenotypic plasticity, and evolution to these trends were assessed. First, maturation trends were extricated from demographic effects and growth-dependent plasticity by estimating probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). PMRN midpoints have significantly shifted downwards at most ages for cod......, haddock, and whiting, but not for Norway pout. Second, increased temperature and food abundance, loosened trophic competition, and relaxed social pressure may also trigger growth-independent plasticity in maturation. Principal component regression of PMRN midpoints on annual estimates of relevant...... environmental variables exhibiting a temporal trend suggest that, despite some evidence of environmental effects, PMRN trends were mostly independent of growth-independent plasticity in haddock, whiting, and male cod, but not in female cod. According to these findings, evolution of maturation, potentially...

  18. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  19. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  20. Temporal trends in the association between socioeconomic status and cancer survival in Ontario: a population-based retrospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabbikeh, Andrew; Peng, Yingwei; Mackillop, William J.; Booth, Christopher M.; Zhang-Salomons, Jina

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cancer survival is known to be associated with socioeconomic status. The income gap between the richer and poorer segments of the population has widened over the last 20 years in Canada. The purpose of this study was to investigate temporal trends in disparities in cancer-specific survival related to socioeconomic status in Ontario. Methods: There were 920 334 cancer cases between 1993 and 2009 in the Ontario Cancer Registry. We linked median household income from the Canadian census to the registry. We calculated 5-year cancer-specific survival rates for all cancers combined and for specific cancer sites by socioeconomic status quintile and year of diagnosis, and modelled time to death using Cox regression. Results: Between 1993 and 2009, for all cancers combined, the hazard of death decreased by 3.1% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.969 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.967-0.971]) per year in the richest quintile and by 1.2% (HR 0.988 [95% CI 0.987-0.990]) per year in the poorest quintile. The corresponding values for breast cancer were 4.3% (HR 0.957 [95% CI 0.951-0.964]) and 2.0% (HR 0.980 [95% CI 0.975-0.986]); for lung cancer, 1.4% (HR 0.986 [95% CI 0.982-0.990]) and 0.3% (HR 0.997 [95% CI 0.995-1.000]); for colorectal cancer, 3.7% (HR 0.963 [95% CI 0.958-0.968]) and 1.8% (HR 0.982 [95% CI 0.978-0.985]); and for head and neck cancer, 3.1% (HR 0.969 [95% CI 0.958-0.979]) and 1.0% (HR 0.990 [95% CI 0.983-0.996]). Interpretation: Between 1993 and 2009, cancer-specific survival in Ontario improved more among patients from affluent communities than among those from poorer communities. This phenomenon cannot be explained by increased disparity in income. PMID:28877916

  1. Monitoring influenza activity in the United States: a comparison of traditional surveillance systems with Google Flu Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin R Ortiz

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections.Influenza activity data from 2003-04 through 2007-08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance, and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79. The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89. Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003-04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87 or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90.This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003-04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior.

  2. Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States: A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Justin R.; Zhou, Hong; Shay, David K.; Neuzil, Kathleen M.; Fowlkes, Ashley L.; Goss, Christopher H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections. Methods and Findings Influenza activity data from 2003–04 through 2007–08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003–04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90). Conclusions This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003–04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior. PMID:21556151

  3. [POPULATION MONITORING OF THE HEALTH SHAPING ENVIRONMENT OF THE STUDENTS OF NAGORNO KARABAKH].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galstyan, H

    2016-10-01

    The study of the health shaping environment of students is one of the actual biomedical tasks, it is also the scientific founding for conducting health-preventive and health-preserving measures. Despite the importance of the proposed problem, this study is a pioneering attempt in Nagorno Karabakh. The objective of the work is the scientific grounding of regional peculiarities and the contemporary level of health shaping environment of students on the basis of population monitoring system. The results of the study prove that the studied health criteria are within limits of physiological norm. The most wide-spead risk factors are lack of physical activity, in the group of young boys - also tobacco use and alcohol consumption. The analysis of daily diet of examinees attests ''fat'' nutrition model. The data on the impact of physical effort reveal high tension in the cardiac activity in the group of physically untrained students. The study of the impact of educational and mental strain on the functional state of the organism of the students revealed that daily academic leads to fatigue. The examination session is characterized by strongly expressed sympatotonia sympathicotonia, mental strain - by parasympatotonia. The obtained results point to the necessity of the enhanced control in preserving and strengthening the health of the younger generation considering the above-brought regional peculiarities.

  4. Trends in monitoring pharmaceuticals and personal-care products in the aquatic environment by use of passive sampling devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, G.A.; Vrana, B.; Allan, I.; Alvarez, D.A.; Huckins, J.N.; Greenwood, R.

    2007-01-01

    The use of passive sampling in monitoring pharmaceuticals and personal-care products (PPCPs) in the aquatic environment is discussed. The utility of passive sampling methods for monitoring the fraction of heavy metals and the biologically available fraction of non-polar organic priority pollutants is recognized and these technologies are being used in surveys of water quality. These devices are used to measure the dissolved fraction and they can yield information that can be used in the development of risk assessments models. These devices can also be used to locate illegal dumping and to monitor specific sources of input of PPCPs into the environment, or to monitor the effectiveness of water treatment processes in the removal of these compounds from wastewater. These devices can provide representative information at low cost which necessitate a combination of laboratory calibration and field studies for emerging pollutants.

  5. Realized population change for long-term monitoring: California spotted owl case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Gretchen Jehle; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee; Ross A. Gerrard

    2013-01-01

    The annual rate of population change (λt) is a good metric for evaluating population performance because it summarizes survival and recruitment rates and can be used for open populations. Another measure of population performance, realized population change (Δt...

  6. Analysis of population trends in the municipality of Nikšić in the period 1948 - 2011.: Correlation with the processes of industrialization and transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mićković Biljana B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 1951 begins the foundation of large industrial facilities and the transformation of Niksić in the main industrial center of Montenegro. Therefore, thanks to the wave of rapid industrialization, NIKŠIĆ had after World War II a very rapid development, that occurred only at a small number of cities. All this has caused a large influx of population especially since 1960 till 1980s. In this paper the analysis of population trends in the municipality of Niksić in the period from 1948 to 2011 will be conducted and point out the correlation between the number of inhabitants with the processes of industrialization and transition.

  7. Monitoring of brown stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) population dynamics in corn to predict its abundance using weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The brown stink bug (BSB), Euschistus servus (Say) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is a serious economic pest of corn production in the Southeastern U. S. The BSB population dynamics was monitored for 17 wks from tasseling to pre-harvest of corn plants (i.e., late May to mid-September) using pheromone ...

  8. Long-term monitoring of month populations (Lepidoptera) associated with a natural wetland forest: synthesis after 25 years

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Spitzer, Karel; Jaroš, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2008), s. 155-166 ISSN 1874-9828 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1QS500070505 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : population monitoring * light traps * moths Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  9. Navigating from the heights of technical rigour to the swampy reality: Lessons from New Zealand in population health outcomes monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Wren

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The objective of this paper is to describe and discuss two documents produced by the New Zealand Ministry of Health concerning the monitoring of outcomes of public health programs. The New Zealand Government is increasingly expecting planners and managers of publicly funded services to shift their focus from the delivery of ‘outputs’ towards achievement of ‘outcomes’. Intervention logic models and outcomes monitoring are promoted by central government agencies as suitable management methods for implementing the change. [1-3]

    Methods: To help managers design and implement comprehensive, effective and measurable population health programmes the Ministry of Health recently published two guidance documents. The first document provided guidance about how to plan programmes using a generic logic model approach.[4] The second set out in detail a process on how to monitor population health programmes.[5] The intent of the documents was to help managers navigate between the heights of technical rigour and the swamps of reality in the delivery of population health programmes.[6]

    Results: A number of issues and implications for how population health programmes are planned monitored and performance assessed have been identified by the guidance documents. Issues include the problem of small numbers, understanding the difference between outcomes monitoring and traditional forms of evaluation, and outcomes monitoring being seen as a tool for punitive performance management rather than ‘continuous programme improvement’. Implications include more time spent on the design of programmes. Planners will need to focus upon better sequencing of activities, setting more specific and time limited goals, and to be more informed about how to use research to inform the selection of interventions.

    Conclusions: The guidance documents promoted by

  10. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonya Crowe

    Full Text Available Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data.We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births, eastern India (8 939, Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344 and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765 over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries.Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about

  11. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001-2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types - e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices can inform policy-makers about effective

  12. Generating Insights from Trends in Newborn Care Practices from Prospective Population-Based Studies: Examples from India, Bangladesh and Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowe, Sonya; Prost, Audrey; Hossen, Munir; Azad, Kishwar; Kuddus, Abdul; Roy, Swati; Nair, Nirmala; Tripathy, Prasanta; Saville, Naomi; Sen, Aman; Sikorski, Catherine; Manandhar, Dharma; Costello, Anthony; Pagel, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Background Delivery of essential newborn care is key to reducing neonatal mortality rates, yet coverage of protective birth practices remains incomplete and variable, with or without skilled attendance. Evidence of changes over time in newborn care provision, disaggregated by care practice and delivery type, can be used by policymakers to review efforts to reduce mortality. We examine such trends in four areas using control arm trial data. Methods and Findings We analysed data from the control arms of cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh (27 553 births), eastern India (8 939), Dhanusha, Nepal (15 344) and Makwanpur, Nepal (6 765) over the period 2001–2011. For each trial, we calculated the observed proportion of attended births and the coverage of WHO essential newborn care practices by year, adjusted for clustering and stratification. To explore factors contributing to the observed trends, we then analysed expected trends due only to observed shifts in birth attendance, accounted for stratification, delivery type and statistically significant interaction terms, and examined disaggregated trends in care practice coverage by delivery type. Attended births increased over the study periods in all areas from very low rates, reaching a maximum of only 30% of deliveries. Newborn care practice trends showed marked heterogeneity within and between areas. Adjustment for stratification, birth attendance and interaction revealed that care practices could change in opposite directions over time and/or between delivery types – e.g. in Bangladesh hygienic cord-cutting and skin-to-skin contact fell in attended deliveries but not home deliveries, whereas in India birth attendant hand-washing rose for institutional deliveries but fell for home deliveries. Conclusions Coverage of many essential newborn care practices is improving, albeit slowly and unevenly across sites and delivery type. Time trend analyses of birth patterns and essential newborn care practices

  13. Latest Trends in the Monitoring of Ships’s Hull Underwater Part and Analysis of Its Effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Urbahs, A; Carjova, K; Vulans, P; Straume, R

    2012-01-01

    Ship operation is not possible without regular maintenance, inspection and certification, established by international and domestic law, where one of the main goals is an effective operation of a ship. To achieve this, it is important to reduce time and costs involved in carrying out the surveys. This paper explores the law under which it’s required for ship to have inspection of underwater part; identifies problems of ship’s hull underwater part; analyze latest trends in ship's hull underwat...

  14. Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

  15. 137Cs monitoring in the meat of wild boar population in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarina Beňová

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the elapsed time and the nature of the Chernobyl accident, the only artificial radionuclide present in the soil is 137Cs, with a physical half-life conversion of 30.17 years. The 137Cs is quickly integrated into a biological cycle, similar to potassium. Generally, radionuclides are characterized by their mobility in soil. Contamination of materials and food by radionuclides represent a serious problem and has a negative impact on human health. The threat of international terrorism and the inability to forestall the impact of natural disasters on nuclear energetic (Fukushima accident, are also reasons for continuous monitoring of food safety. According screening measurement performed in European countries, high radioactivity levels were reported in the wild boars muscles from Sumava (Czech Republic. Seasonal fluctuation of 137Cs activity in the wild boar meat samples was observed in the forests on the southern Rhineland. Monitoring of 137Cs activity in the wild boar meat samples in the hunting grounds in Slovakia was initiated based on the reports on exceeding limits of the content of radiocaesium in the meat of wild boar from the surrounding countries. The aim of this study was to determine the 137Cs post Chernobyl contamination of wild boars population in different hunting districts of Slovakia during 2013 - 2014. A total of 60 thigh muscle samples from wild boars of different age categories (4 months - 2 years were evaluated. 137Cs activity was measured by gamma spectrometry (Canberra. Despite the fact Slovakia is closer to Chernobyl as Czech Republic and Germany, the 137Cs activity measured was very low and far below the permitted limit. The highest radiocaesium activity level measured in muscle was 37.2 Bq.kg-1 ±4.7%. Wild boar originated from Zlate Moravce district. The measurement results show, that 137Cs contamination levels of game in Slovakia are low. Radiocaesium activity in examined samples was very low and

  16. Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius

  17. Population and age-group trends in weekend sun protection and sunburn over two decades of the SunSmart programme in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makin, J K; Warne, C D; Dobbinson, S J; Wakefield, M A; Hill, D J

    2013-01-01

    In response to the high skin cancer burden in Australia, the multicomponent, community-wide SunSmart programme has worked since 1988 to reduce excessive sun exposure.  To examine trends in key sun-protection behaviours and sunburn for the Melbourne population from 1987 to 2007, and examine for the first time patterns of change among age groups.   Representative cross-sectional weekly telephone surveys of weekend sun protection and sunburn were conducted over 11 of the summers in the period 1987-88 to 2006-07. Trends were analysed for the population and for age groups, adjusting for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation, which are environmental determinants of sun-related behaviour and sunburn.   The general pattern of trends suggests two distinct periods, one with rapid improvement in behaviours (more sunscreen use, less unprotected body exposure and less sunburn) from 1987-88 to 1994-95, and the second from 1997-98 to 2006-07 with fewer changes in behaviours noted. The age-group analyses showed a similar pattern of change over time across groups, with a few notable exceptions.  The similarity of the pattern of trends among age groups suggests that external influences including the SunSmart programme's activity had a relatively similar impact across the population. Sun-related behaviours continue to be amenable to change. More recent relative stability with some declines in sun protection suggests further intensive campaigns and other strategies may be needed to maintain previous successes and to achieve more universal use of sun protection. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

  18. Trends in the breeding population of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil O'B Lyver

    Full Text Available Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28% of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island. The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni, may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  19. Trends in the Breeding Population of Adélie Penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981–2012: A Coincidence of Climate and Resource Extraction Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyver, Phil O’B.; Barron, Mandy; Barton, Kerry J.; Ainley, David G.; Pollard, Annie; Gordon, Shulamit; McNeill, Stephen; Ballard, Grant; Wilson, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981–2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of −0.019 during 1981–2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001–2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then. PMID:24621601

  20. Childhood obesity trends from primary care electronic health records in England between 1994 and 2013: population-based cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaarsveld, C.H.M. van; Gulliford, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2-15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades. DESIGN: Cohort study of primary care electronic health records. SETTING: 375 general

  1. Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

    2017-08-01

    To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.