WorldWideScience

Sample records for monitor population trends

  1. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. Northern region landbird monitoring program: a program designed to monitor more than long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard L. Hutto

    2005-01-01

    The Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program (NRLMP) has been in place for nearly a decade and is designed to allow us to track population trends of numerous landbird species, while at the same time allowing us to investigate the effects of various kinds of land use activity on the occurrence, abundance, or demographics of numerous landbird species. We conduct...

  3. Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

    Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general obser...

  4. Census techniques and methods for monitoring population trends and reproductive success of marine birds: A preliminary annotated bibliography draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This draft biography draws together 79 published and unpublished sources which are helpful in designing and conducting monitoring population trends and reproductive...

  5. Time trends in fish populations in metropolitan France: insights from national monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulet, N; Beaulaton, L; Dembski, S

    2011-12-01

    Using the electrofishing database of the French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environment (Onema), the time trends of 48 freshwater fish taxa at 590 sites monitored for at least 8 years from 1990 to 2009 were investigated. The results demonstrated that species richness increased steadily from the beginning of the monitoring period. This is congruent with the finding that the number of species displaying a significant increase in spatial distribution or abundance was greater than those showing a significant decrease. Some species, however, had declined both in occurrence and abundance, e.g. tench Tinca tinca, common bream Abramis brama, brown trout Salmo trutta and European eel Anguilla anguilla. The species showing the most spectacular colonization were non-native, e.g. topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva, wels catfish Silurus glanis and asp Aspius aspius. The time trends in population density were related to the maximal body size, habitat requirement, occurrence and abundance and the status (i.e. native or exotic) but not to the spawning temperature.

  6. Estimation of density and population size and recommendations for monitoring trends of Bahama parrots on Great Abaco and Great Inagua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Milan, F. F.; Collazo, J.A.; Stahala, C.; Moore, W.J.; Davis, A.; Herring, G.; Steinkamp, M.; Pagliaro, R.; Thompson, J.L.; Bracey, W.

    2005-01-01

    Once abundant and widely distributed, the Bahama parrot (Amazona leucocephala bahamensis) currently inhabits only the Great Abaco and Great lnagua Islands of the Bahamas. In January 2003 and May 2002-2004, we conducted point-transect surveys (a type of distance sampling) to estimate density and population size and make recommendations for monitoring trends. Density ranged from 0.061 (SE = 0.013) to 0.085 (SE = 0.018) parrots/ha and population size ranged from 1,600 (SE = 354) to 2,386 (SE = 508) parrots when extrapolated to the 26,154 ha and 28,162 ha covered by surveys on Abaco in May 2002 and 2003, respectively. Density was 0.183 (SE = 0.049) and 0.153 (SE = 0.042) parrots/ha and population size was 5,344 (SE = 1,431) and 4,450 (SE = 1,435) parrots when extrapolated to the 29,174 ha covered by surveys on Inagua in May 2003 and 2004, respectively. Because parrot distribution was clumped, we would need to survey 213-882 points on Abaco and 258-1,659 points on Inagua to obtain a CV of 10-20% for estimated density. Cluster size and its variability and clumping increased in wintertime, making surveys imprecise and cost-ineffective. Surveys were reasonably precise and cost-effective in springtime, and we recommend conducting them when parrots are pairing and selecting nesting sites. Survey data should be collected yearly as part of an integrated monitoring strategy to estimate density and other key demographic parameters and improve our understanding of the ecological dynamics of these geographically isolated parrot populations at risk of extinction.

  7. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    athletes’ names, and matching sports’ name. 2) Entertainment: trending topics that describe celebrities, art and cultures, travel , movies, books...trending topics that describe home, lifestyle- leisure , and service-shopping 8) Obituaries: trending topics that describe crime, law, unrest, conflicts

  8. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  9. Turning population trend monitoring into active conservation: Can we save the Cascades Frog (Rana cascadae) in the Lassen region of California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary M. Fellers; Karen L. Pope; Jonathan E. Stead; Michelle S. Koo; Hartwell H. Welsh

    2007-01-01

    Monitoring the distribution, population size, and trends of declining species is necessary to evaluate their vulnerability to extinction. It is the responsibility of scientists to alert management professionals of the need for preemptive action if a species approaches imminent, regional extirpation. This is the case with Rana cascadae (Cascades Frog...

  10. [Trends in population aging].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkovics, E

    1990-11-01

    The age structure of the world population between 1950 and 1985 is analyzed according to changes in fertility, mortality, and international migration in developing and developed countries. "Relying on the results of the medium scenario of the population forecasts prepared by the U.N. Division of International Economic and Social Affairs, the author demonstrates that aging of the world population will become a global phenomenon, characteristic of every region and county of the world, between 1985 and 2025." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

  11. Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Trend Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J. Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. PMID:24876437

  12. Turning population trend monitoring into active conservation: Can we save the cascades frog (Rang cascadae) in the Lassen Region of California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, G.M.; Pope, K.L.; Stead, J.E.; Koo, M.S.; Welsh, W.H.

    2008-01-01

    Monitoring the distribution, population size, and trends of declining species is necessary to evaluate their vulnerability to extinction. It is the responsibility of scientists to alert management professionals of the need for preemptive action if a species approaches imminent, regional extirpation. This is the case with Rana cascadae (Cascades Frog) populations near Lassen Peak From 1993 to 2007, we conducted 1,873 amphibian surveys at 856 sites within Lassen Volcanic National Park and Lassen National Forest, California, USA. These surveys encompassed all R. cascadae habitats: ponds, lakes, meadows, and streams on those lands. We found frogs at only six sites during 14 years of surveys, and obtained one report of a single frog at one additional locality. These sites represented 12 years. Causes for the decline remain unclear, but introduced trout, disease, and pesticides are likely factors. We recommend that (1) additional protection for R. cascadae within 50 km of Lassen Peak; (2) investigation of the genetics of R. cascadae in California; (3) research into the role of possible causative factors in these declines; and (4) implementation of a feasibility study to captive breed and reintroduce R. cascadae in the Lassen area. Copyright ?? 2008. Gary Fellers. All rights reserved.

  13. Monitoring Obesity Trends in Health Japan 21.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Nobuo

    2015-01-01

    Prevention of non-communicable diseases is more important than ever especially for the elderly to live a healthy life in the super-aged society of Japan. In 2000, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan started Health Japan 21 as goal-oriented health promotion plan like Healthy People in the US and the Health of the Nation in the UK. Its second term started in 2013 with the aim of prolonging healthy life expectancy and reducing health inequalities. Improvement in both individuals' lifestyle and their social environment will help achieve the goal of the 2nd Health Japan 21. The National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) is conducted every year to monitor the health and nutritional situation of the Japanese using a representative population. The NHNS data are useful for target setting and evaluation of the 2nd Health Japan 21, and the NHNS has shown an increasing trend of overweight (BMI≥25) only for male adults in the most recent 10 y. In contrast, the dietary intake survey of the NHNS shows a decreasing trend of total energy intake both in male and female adults aged 69 y old or younger, and the trend for physical activity is not well known. Thus, we need further investigations on the causes of the obesity trend in Japan.

  14. Trend estimation in populations with imperfect detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kery, Marc; Dorazio, Robert M.; Soldaat, Leo; Van Strien, Arco; Zuiderwijk, Annie; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    1. Trends of animal populations are of great interest in ecology but cannot be directly observed owing to imperfect detection. Binomial mixture models use replicated counts to estimate abundance, corrected for detection, in demographically closed populations. Here, we extend these models to open populations and illustrate them using sand lizard Lacerta agilis counts from the national Dutch reptile monitoring scheme. 2. Our model requires replicated counts from multiple sites in each of several periods, within which population closure is assumed. Counts are described by a hierarchical generalized linear model, where the state model deals with spatio-temporal patterns in true abundance and the observation model with imperfect counts, given that true state. We used WinBUGS to fit the model to lizard counts from 208 transects with 1–10 (mean 3) replicate surveys during each spring 1994–2005. 3. Our state model for abundance contained two independent log-linear Poisson regressions on year for coastal and inland sites, and random site effects to account for unexplained heterogeneity. The observation model for detection of an individual lizard contained effects of region, survey date, temperature, observer experience and random survey effects. 4. Lizard populations increased in both regions but more steeply on the coast. Detectability increased over the first few years of the study, was greater on the coast and for the most experienced observers, and highest around 1 June. Interestingly, the population increase inland was not detectable when the observed counts were analysed without account of detectability. The proportional increase between 1994 and 2005 in total lizard abundance across all sites was estimated at 86% (95% CRI 35–151). 5. Synthesis and applications. Open-population binomial mixture models are attractive for studying true population dynamics while explicitly accounting for the observation process, i.e. imperfect detection. We emphasize the important

  15. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  16. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. Studying disability trends in aging populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Danan; Gomez-Redondo, Rosa; Dupre, Matthew E

    2015-03-01

    This article reviews the current literature on disability trends in aging populations and proposes a framework for studying disability trends built upon existing models of disablement. In addition to considering disablement and its associated factors, our framework also includes factors at population level and the interplays among personal resources and health behaviors, intervention programs, technological advances, and the consequences of disability trends in the context of life course and socio-ecological perspective. The framework is abbreviated FE-BRIT-SE to denote individual-level (F)ixed attributes, including genetic factors, personality, age, sex, and earlier life conditions, and the (E)nvironment; individual (B)ehaviors, (R)esources, (I)nterventions, (T)echnology; and (S)ocioeconomic and (E)cological consequences of disability trends. The overview offers an integrated framework for understanding the disablement process, trends and their complex milieu of causes and consequences.

  18. Heroin users in Australia: population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya, C Yalçin; Tugai, Yuliya; Filar, Jerzy A; Agrawal, Manju R; Ali, Robert L; Gowing, Linda R; Cooke, Richard

    2004-03-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify certain important population trends among heroin users in Australia for the period 1971 - 97, such as: population growth, initiation, i.e. the number who were initiated to heroin in a given year, and quitting, i.e. the number that quit using heroin. For this purpose, we summarize and extract relevant characteristics from data from National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS 1998) conducted in Australia in 1998. We devise a systematic procedure to estimate historical trends from questions concerning past events. It is observed from our findings that the size of the heroin user population in Australia is in a sharp increase, especially from the early 1980s onwards. The general trend obtained for the period 1971 - 97 is strikingly similar to that obtained by Hall et al. (2000) for the dependent heroin user population in Australia, even though their study was based on different datasets and a different methodology. In our reconstruction of the time history we also detect a levelling-off prior to 1990. Initiation is also observed to be on a sharp increase. The latter trend is accompanied by a similar trend of quitting, perhaps indicating a relatively short heroin use career. A sharp decrease in both initiation and quitting is observed after 1990. In conclusion, in the case of the trend in the population of heroin users a high rate of growth has been identified that is consistent with the existing literature. In the process, we demonstrated that even a static survey such as NDSHS 1998 can, sometimes, be used to extract historical (dynamic) trends of certain important variables.

  19. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magera, Anna M; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B; Lotze, Heike K

    2013-01-01

    Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of

  20. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  1. Monitoring trends in violence: a delayed response to Estrada (2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, Pauline; Langley, John; Cryer, Colin

    2013-11-01

    Reliable and valid indicators of assault are required to effectively monitor population trends and ensure that resources are targeted effectively. Trends in assault, reported by the media, based on crime statistics, or on victim surveys, are substantively affected by extraneous factors. In 2006, Estrada offered up solutions to the difficulties posed by crime statistics and victim surveys, by proposing the development of indicators based on hospital discharge data, albeit with identified limitations. This article is a response to Estrada's proposition, and works through each of Estrada's identified limitations of hospital discharge data. Potential problems with Estrada's suggestions are highlighted in our article and solutions, based on the current evidence, are proposed.

  2. The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feshbach, M

    1982-08-01

    Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a

  3. Trends in consumption of fats and oils among Indian tribal population over a period of 30 years: Findings of National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Laxmaiah

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In several randomized control trials, it was observed that the dietary fat content has a little, but a significant effect on energy consumption and body weight. The purpose of this communication was to assess fat consumption among tribals, time trends and its association with obesity and hypertension. Methods: These were community based cross-sectional studies, adopted multistage random sampling procedure. The subjects were covered from 120 randomly selected villages each from 9 states in India. Information on household socio-economic & demographic and food intakes were collected. Anthropometric parameters and blood pressure were measured by using standard equipment and procedures. Results: The mean intake of food and nutrients were assessed in 14,324, 32,023, and 41507 tribal subjects in 1985-87, 1998-99 and 2008-09, respectively. The mean consumption of visible fats was 10g/CU/day, as against requirement of 20g and increased from 7g in 1985-87 to 10g in 2008-09. The percentage of energy obtained from total fat (20.8g/day was 10% as against safe limit of 20%. The consumption of total dietary fats was increased significantly over a period of 3 decades in all the age groups, but it is less than recommended levels of ICMR. The fat intake was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. Conclusions: Even though fat consumption was increased in all the age groups, but less than the recommended levels of ICMR. The consumption of fat was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. There is an urgent need to create awareness among tribal population to consume adequate and quality of fats.

  4. Cycles and trends in cod populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnstad, O N; Fromentin, J M; Stenseth, N C; Gjøsaeter, J

    1999-04-27

    Year-to-year fluctuations in fish stocks are usually attributed to variability in recruitment, competition, predation, and changes in catchability. Trends in abundance, in contrast, are usually ascribed to human exploitation and large-scale environmental changes. In this study, we demonstrate, through statistical modeling of survey data (1921-1994) of cod from the Norwegian Skagerrak coast, that both short- and long-term variability may arise from the same set of age-structured interactions. Asymmetric competition and cannibalism between cohorts generate alternating years of high and low abundance. Intercohort interactions also resonate the recruitment variability so that long-term trends are induced. The coupling of age-structure and variable recruitment should, therefore, be considered when explaining both the short- and long-term fluctuations displayed by the coastal cod populations. Resonant effects may occur in many marine populations that exhibit this combination of traits.

  5. Current Trends in Continuous Glucose Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodwig, Volker; Kulzer, Bernhard; Schnell, Oliver; Heinemann, Lutz

    2014-03-01

    The market introduction of systems for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) some 15 years ago did not immediately revolutionize the treatment of diabetes; however, for a given group of patients, it would almost be inconceivable nowadays to imagine life without CGM. One day the development of insulin pumps together with CGM could culminate in an artificial pancreas system. The performance of the glucose sensors used for glucose measurement in the interstitial fluid in the subcutaneous tissue and the algorithms employed to analyze these data have improved so much over the past decade that current CGM systems by far outperform those of the first generations. This commentary discusses a number of aspects about what we have learned since CGM systems entered the market and what current trends exist in their usage. Some of these are major hurdles facing a more widespread usage of CGM.

  6. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended.

  7. Continuous glucose monitoring and trend accuracy: news about a trend compass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signal, Matthew; Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2014-09-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

  8. Russian Population Ethnic Structure: Trends and Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safronov S.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on the census data from 1989, 2002 and 2010, the article analyzes the evolution of the ethnic structure of the population of the post-Soviet Russia from the territorial perspective. The stability of the ethnic structure of the “Russian mega nucleus” and indigenization of the national regions are considered in view of the differences in migration trends during the two inter-census periods and the socioeconomic situation in the regions. The urbanization rate of major ethnic groups is an indirect indicator of the prospects of traditional “primordial” ethnic identities in different ethnic groups. Special attention is paid to new trends — an increase in the number of people refraining from answering the question about their ethnic identity or giving an unclear answer. Alongside serious census errors, this phenomenon can be a result of growing complexity of the ethnic identity structures and the processes of modernization, which occur at different rates in Russian and national regions. Based on the 2010 census data, the article analyses the differences in polyethnicity between the rural and urban population, which are accounted for by the historical background, particularities of regional development, settlement features, and migration processes of the past two decades.

  9. World population trends in 1960-70.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L; Kono, S

    1974-01-01

    burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.

  10. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-05-05

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  11. Monitoring bird population trends in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Purroy, F.J.

    1983-01-01

    Se ofrece un nuevo metodo para computar las oscilaciones demograficas de las aves a lo largo de los anos. Con los datos suministrados por el proyecto 'Aves nidificantes en Norteamerica' , se indican en la Tabla 1 las pautas de cambio numerico de una serie seleccionada de aves holarticas.

  12. Drinking water quality monitoring using trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Eteläniemi, Mira; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2014-06-01

    One of the common quality parameters for drinking water is residual aluminium. High doses of residual aluminium in drinking water or water used in the food industry have been proved to be at least a minor health risk or even to increase the risk of more serious health effects, and cause economic losses to the water treatment plant. In this study, the trend index is developed from scaled measurement data to detect a warning of changes in residual aluminium level in drinking water. The scaling is based on monotonously increasing, non-linear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. The severity of the situations is evaluated by deviation indices. The trend episodes and the deviation indices provide good tools for detecting changes in water quality and for process control.

  13. US Forest Service Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Forest Service, Department of Agriculture — The Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project maps the location, extent, and severity of all large fires in the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska,...

  14. Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality. [Use of National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL to identify documented environmental trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

    1976-10-01

    Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US.

  15. Population trends of red-cockaded woodpeckers in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard N. Conner; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph

    2006-01-01

    tracked population trends of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) in eastern Texas from 1983 through 2004. After declining precipitously during the 1980s, woodpecker population trends on federal lands (National Forests and Grasslands in Texas, but excluding the Big Thicket National Preserve) increased between 1990 and 2000, and have been...

  16. 40 CFR 52.140 - Monitoring transportation trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Monitoring transportation trends. 52.140 Section 52.140 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.140 Monitoring...

  17. Assessing browse trend at the landscape level Part 2: Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keigley, R.B.; Frisina, M.R.; Fager, C.W.

    2002-01-01

    In Part 1, we assessed browse trend across a wide geographic area of Mt. Haggin Wildlife Management Area by conducting surveys of browsing-related architectures. Those data were qualitative. Below we describe the periodic collection of quantitative data from permanently marked locations; we refer to this phase of the trend assessment program as "monitoring." Trend was monitored by three methods: 1 Repeat photography. 2 Comparison of the height of live stems with the height of stems killed by browsing (LD Index). 3 Net annual stem growth rate (NAGRL3). The photography provides an assessment of trend from the comparison of photographs taken at intervals of a few years. The LD Index and NAGRL3 measurements provide an immediate assessment of trend.

  18. European regional populations: current trends, future pathways and policy options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rees, P.H.; van der Gaag, N.L.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Heins, F.

    2012-01-01

    Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under

  19. New trends in structural health monitoring

    CERN Document Server

    Güemes, J

    2013-01-01

    Experts actively working in structural health monitoring and control techniques present the current research, areas of application and tendencies for the future of this technology, including various design issues involved. Examples using some of the latest hardware and software tools, experimental data from small scale laboratory demonstrators and measurements made on real structures illustrate the book. It will be a reference for professionals and students in the areas of engineering, applied natural sciences and engineering management.

  20. Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-12-01

    The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

  1. Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceira, Monica [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Blom, Philip Stephen [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maccarthy, Jonathan K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Euler, Garrett Gene [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Begnaud, Michael Lee [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ford, Sean R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Orris, Gregory J. [Naval Research Laboratory; Foxe, Michael P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Sandia National Laboratory; Merchant, B. John [Sandia National Laboratory; Slinkard, Megan E. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2017-06-01

    This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the document for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.

  2. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  3. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. L. Eberhardt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos have been studied for more than 40 years. Radiotelemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006. Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year “unduplicated” also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear leastsquares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006, which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  4. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2017-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introducesnew techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed...

  5. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  6. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  7. Trends in the exploitation of South Atlantic shark populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto, Rodrigo; Ferretti, Francesco; Flemming, Joanna M; Amorim, Alberto; Andrade, Humber; Worm, Boris; Lessa, Rosangela

    2016-08-01

    Approximately 25% of globally reported shark catches occur in Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries. Strong declines in shark populations have been detected in the North Atlantic, whereas in the South Atlantic the situation is less clear, although fishing effort has been increasing in this region since the late 1970s. We synthesized information on shark catch rates (based on 871,177 sharks caught on 86,492 longline sets) for the major species caught by multiple fleets in the South Atlantic between 1979 and 2011. We complied records from fishing logbooks of fishing companies, fishers, and onboard observers that were supplied to Brazilian institutions. By using exploratory data analysis and literature sources, we identified 3 phases of exploitation in these data (Supporting Information). From 1979 to 1997 (phase A), 5 fleets (40 vessels) fished mainly for tunas. From 1998 to 2008 (phase B), 20 fleets (100 vessels) fished for tunas, swordfishes, and sharks. From 2008 to 2011 (phase C), 3 fleets (30 vessels) fished for multiple species, but restrictive measures were implemented. We used generalized linear models to standardize catch rates and identify trends in each of these phases. Shark catch rates increased from 1979 to 1997, when fishing effort was low, decreased from 1998 to 2008, when fishing effort increased substantially, and remained stable or increased from 2008 to 2011, when fishing effort was again low. Our results indicate that most shark populations affected by longlines in the South Atlantic are currently depleted, but these populations may recover if fishing effort is reduced accordingly. In this context, it is problematic that comprehensive data collection, monitoring, and management of these fisheries ceased after 2012. Concurrently with the fact that Brazil is newly identified by FAO among the largest (and in fastest expansion) shark sub-products consumer market worldwide.

  8. Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

    2016-01-01

    Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with

  9. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  10. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  11. European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Philip; van der Gaag, Nicole; de Beer, Joop; Heins, Frank

    2012-11-01

    Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35-40 % of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, but 55-70 % of the regions will see a labor force decline by 10 % or more. In most regions of Eastern Europe, the labor force may decrease by more than 30 %. To keep regions prosperous (maintaining competitiveness) and to avoid worse inequality (maintaining cohesion), policy-makers must find ways to cope with these challenges through new fiscal and social policies, though policies directly affecting demographic and migratory trends may also be needed.

  12. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis – a tool for health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Karin; Swedish, Tristan; Raskar, Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling. PMID:28579753

  13. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis - a tool for health monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Karin; Swedish, Tristan; Raskar, Ramesh

    2017-01-01

    Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling.

  14. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  15. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  16. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  17. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  18. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  19. Mercury concentration trend as a possible result of changes in cod population demography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruus, Anders; Hjermann, Dag Ø; Beylich, Bjørnar; Schøyen, Merete; Øxnevad, Sigurd; Green, Norman W

    2017-07-20

    Mercury (Hg) in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of many parameters that are monitored through OSPAR's Joint Assessment and Monitoring Programme. Time series for cod in the Inner Oslofjord (Norway) go back to 1984. Until 2014, annual median Hg-concentrations in cod from the Inner Oslofjord showed both significant upward long-term (whole time series) and short-term (recent 10 years) trends (when 2015 was included, the short-term trend was not significant). However, the median length of the cod sampled also showed upward trends. This may have been caused by low cod recruitment in the area since the start of the 2000s, as indicated by beach seine surveys. To investigate how length would impact the trend analysis, the Hg-concentrations in the cod were normalised to 50 cm. No significant short-term trend in Hg-concentrations could be detected for length-normalised concentrations. The results indicated that most of the upward trend in Hg-concentrations could be attributed to the sampling of larger fish. The reasons for the apparent change in the cod population demography are not conclusive, however, sampling bias must also be considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  1. POPULATION INCOME AND CONSUMERS EXPENDITURES: LEVEL, TRENDS AND DIFFERENTIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor K. Beliaevskiy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Money incomes of the population, their composition and dynamics determine considerably the standard of living. Nevertheless, human wellbeing also depends on the consumer spendings. The article deals with analysis of forming and using of money incomes for consumption, trends of their development, as well as the social differentiation of consumer spendings. The author uses the data of government statistics in a few years.

  2. Wood duck population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Droege, S.; Fredrickson, Leigh H.; Burger, George V.; Havera, Stephen P.; Graber, David A.; Kirby, Ronald E.; Taylor, T. Scott

    1990-01-01

    The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been conducted yearly since 1966, and can be used to describe relative population density and trends of birds in North America north of Mexico. Wood ducks (Air sponsa) are difficult to survey using conventional waterfowl monitoring techniques, but a large portion of their range is surveyed by the BBS. Wood ducks are detected at low densities on many BBS routes, and population trends can be estimated for most regions. Populations have been increasing throughout North America since 1966, but statistically significant increases generally occurred only in the early (1966-78) part of the period. Roadside survey methodology used in the BBS has limitations that make it inefficient as a survey technique for wood ducks, and we recommend using modified methodologies that specifically survey wood duck habitat.

  3. Can neonatal TSH screening reflect trends in population iodine intake?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Burns, Robert

    2008-08-01

    The distribution of neonatal blood thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations has been used as an index reflecting population dietary iodine intake, with higher concentrations being indicative of lower iodine intake. We examined this distribution in neonates born in Ireland, where the pregnant population has shown a recent decline in urinary iodine (UI) excretion. Our objectives were to determine if any alteration was observed in the percentage of values > 5.0 mIU\\/L and whether a trend in neonatal blood TSH was apparent.

  4. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Experimental evaluation of population trend and harvest composition in a Wyoming cougar population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, C.R.; Lindzey, F.G.

    2005-01-01

    Cougar (Puma concolor) management has been hindered by inability to identify population trends. We documented changes in sex and age of harvested cougars during an experimentally induced reduction in population size and subsequent recovery to better understand the relationship between sex-age composition and population trend in exploited populations. The cougar population in the Snowy Range, southeast Wyoming, was reduced by increased harvest (treatment phase) from 58 independent cougars (>1 year old) (90% CI = 36-81) in the autumn of 1998 to 20 by the spring of 2000 (mean exploitation rate = 43%) and then increased to 46 by spring 2003 following 3 years of reduced harvests (mean exploitation rate = 18%). Pretreatment harvest composition was 63% subadults (1.0-2.5 years old), 23% adult males, and 14% adult females (2 seasons; n = 22). A reduction in subadult harvest, an initial increase followed by a reduction in adult male harvest, and a steady increase in adult female harvest characterized harvest composition trends during the treatment phase. Harvest composition was similar at high and low densities when harvest was light, but proportion of harvested subadult males increased at low density as they replaced adult males removed during the treatment period (high harvest). While sex ratio of harvested cougars alone appears of limited value in identifying population change, when combined with age class the 2 appear to provide an index to population change. Composition of the harvest can be applied to adaptively manage cougar populations where adequate sex and age data are collected from harvested animals.

  6. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  7. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  8. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005.......To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005....

  9. Bat Species Occurrence and Long-Term Bat Population Monitoring on Refuges Using Acoustical Detection - 2012-2015 Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Long-term trend monitoring efforts for bats on National Wildlife Refuges have been prompted by a paucity of significant population information and precipitous...

  10. How a trend towards a stationary population affects consumer demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espenshade, T J

    1978-03-01

    Abstract During the great depression of the 1930seconomists in both the United States and Europe tried to analyse the economic consequences of declining rates of population growth. Not only were birth rates in many industrial countries at the lowest levels ever, but they coincided with high rates of unemployment. Of the many economists who held that demographic trends were partly responsible for the adverse economic conditions, a prominent example was John Maynard Keynes. According to his so-called stagnation thesis, population growth stimulates investment demand in two ways: more people need more goods and services and, hence, more investment in factories and machinery; and with population growing, businessmen are more likely to regard their investment misallocations as less serious than when the growth is slow or nil.(1)A minority of writers were more optimistic about the economic consequences of slower rates of population growth. For example, Thompson argued that with a lower ratio of consumers to producers the population would enjoy a higher standard of living and the education of children should improve.(2).

  11. Automated retinal imaging and trend analysis – a tool for health monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roesch K

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Karin Roesch, Tristan Swedish, Ramesh Raskar MIT Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Abstract: Most current diagnostic devices are expensive, require trained specialists to operate and gather static images with sparse data points. This leads to preventable diseases going undetected until late stage, resulting in greatly narrowed treatment options. This is especially true for retinal imaging. Future solutions are low cost, portable, self-administered by the patient, and capable of providing multiple data points, population analysis, and trending. This enables preventative interventions through mass accessibility, constant monitoring, and predictive modeling. Keywords: next-generation imaging technology, early disease indicators, predictive health assessment, predictive analysis, mass accessibility

  12. A reversal of decreasing trends in population cholesterol levels in Västerbotten County, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Norberg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background:High cholesterol is identified as a major risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases, especially cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Monitoring trends of cholesterol levels and comparing trends across population groups are important to assess population distribution and risks related to cholesterol change over time. Cholesterol surveillance data are lacking, even in high-income countries.Objectives:To describe the trends in cholesterol and triglyceride levels in different population groups and to estimate the risk of developing hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia in Västerbotten County, Sweden during 1990–2010.Designs and Methods:Since 1990, 133,082 individuals living in Västerbotten County, Northern Sweden, invited on their 30th, 40th, 50th and 60th birthdays, participated in the Västerbotten Intervention Program. Ten years after baseline data collection, 34,868 individuals were surveyed for a second time. In addition to a self-administered health questionnaire (that included information on socioeconomic status, demographics, self-reported health and lifestyle behaviours, blood cholesterol and triglyceride were examined.Results:The level and prevalence of hypercholesterolemia decreased significantly from 1990 to 2007, but the trends began to increase during 2008–2010 in men, women, and in all educational groups. Men had significantly higher serum triglyceride levels than women and their cholesterol levels were similar to those of the women. This study shows that those with basic education and who live in rural inlands had consistently higher triglyceride level than those who live in the city and have higher educational attainments. People with basic education are also at higher risk of developing hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia at 10-year follow-up; the risk is much higher among the older cohorts, particularly women. During 1990–2010, the proportion of participants who reported

  13. A reversal of decreasing trends in population cholesterol levels in Västerbotten County, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Nawi; Johnson, Owe; Lindahl, Bernt; Norberg, Margareta

    2012-01-01

    Background High cholesterol is identified as a major risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases, especially cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Monitoring trends of cholesterol levels and comparing trends across population groups are important to assess population distribution and risks related to cholesterol change over time. Cholesterol surveillance data are lacking, even in high-income countries. Objectives To describe the trends in cholesterol and triglyceride levels in different population groups and to estimate the risk of developing hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia in Västerbotten County, Sweden during 1990–2010. Designs and Methods Since 1990, 133,082 individuals living in Västerbotten County, Northern Sweden, invited on their 30th, 40th, 50th and 60th birthdays, participated in the Västerbotten Intervention Program. Ten years after baseline data collection, 34,868 individuals were surveyed for a second time. In addition to a self-administered health questionnaire (that included information on socioeconomic status, demographics, self-reported health and lifestyle behaviours), blood cholesterol and triglyceride were examined. Results The level and prevalence of hypercholesterolemia decreased significantly from 1990 to 2007, but the trends began to increase during 2008–2010 in men, women, and in all educational groups. Men had significantly higher serum triglyceride levels than women and their cholesterol levels were similar to those of the women. This study shows that those with basic education and who live in rural inlands had consistently higher triglyceride level than those who live in the city and have higher educational attainments. People with basic education are also at higher risk of developing hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia at 10-year follow-up; the risk is much higher among the older cohorts, particularly women. During 1990–2010, the proportion of participants who reported treatment with lipid

  14. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  15. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  16. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A; Novak, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1) and 7.74 km yr(-1) shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  17. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  18. Evaluation of traps used to monitor southern pine beetle aerial populations and sex ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    James T. Cronin; Jane L. Hayes; Peter. Turchin

    2000-01-01

    Various kinds of traps have been employed to monitor and forecast population trends of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann; Coleoptera: Scolytidae), but their accuracy in assessing pine-beetle abundance and sex ratio in the field has not been evaluated directly.In trus study, we...

  19. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbieri Flavia L

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the

  20. Power analysis and trend detection for water quality monitoring data. An application for the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Manlove, Kezia; Hollimon, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    An important consideration for long term monitoring programs is determining the required sampling effort to detect trends in specific ecological indicators of interest. To enhance the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network’s water resources protocol(s) (O’Ney 2006 and O’Ney et al. 2009 [under review]), we developed a set of tools to: (1) determine the statistical power for detecting trends of varying magnitude in a specified water quality parameter over different lengths of sampling (years) and different within-year collection frequencies (monthly or seasonal sampling) at particular locations using historical data, and (2) perform periodic trend analyses for water quality parameters while addressing seasonality and flow weighting. A power analysis for trend detection is a statistical procedure used to estimate the probability of rejecting the hypothesis of no trend when in fact there is a trend, within a specific modeling framework. In this report, we base our power estimates on using the seasonal Kendall test (Helsel and Hirsch 2002) for detecting trend in water quality parameters measured at fixed locations over multiple years. We also present procedures (R-scripts) for conducting a periodic trend analysis using the seasonal Kendall test with and without flow adjustment. This report provides the R-scripts developed for power and trend analysis, tutorials, and the associated tables and graphs. The purpose of this report is to provide practical information for monitoring network staff on how to use these statistical tools for water quality monitoring data sets.

  1. National Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV). Monitoring effort 2007/2008; TrendMeetnet Verzuring. Monsternemingen in 2007/2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masseling, N.J.; De Goffau, A.

    2010-10-15

    In the period December 2007 till March 2008, the quality of the upper one meter of the groundwater has been investigated at 75 locations of the TMV monitoring network. These data serve to assess the effects of acidification of the groundwater under nature areas (forest/heathland) on sandy soils. The European standard for nitrate of 50 mg per litre was exceeded at 5% of the locations investigated. The concentrations of cadmium, chromium, nickel and zinc exceeded the target levels at 63%, 45%, 23% and 87% of the sampled sites, respectively. At a few sites, the intervention level for cadmium, nickel and zinc was exceeded. The TMV was established in 1989. The network monitors periodically, in cycli of two years, 150 locations in the Netherlands. This implies that during one year of measurement the groundwater quality is assessed at 75 locations. The results of the 'first' 75 locations of the 2006/2008 cycle were published in 2009. The current report covers the second half of the 150 sites. An analysis of the measuring results will be done at a later stage. During the 2006/2008 measuring cycle also observation were made of soil texture and other environmental parameters such as type of vegetation, tree height and thickness of the litter. This type of information illustrates the variation in natural conditions at the locations investigated (deciduous forest, coniferous forest, heathland). These environmental parameters will be used to explain differences in groundwater quality at monitoring sites. [Dutch] Vanaf december 2007 tot in maart 2008 is op 75 locaties van het TrendMeetnet Verzuring (TMV) de kwaliteit van het bovenste grondwater onderzocht. Met deze gegevens worden in Nederlandse natuurgebieden op zandgrond (bos/heide) de effecten van verzuring op het grondwater in kaart gebracht. Op 5 procent van de onderzochte locaties is de EU norm voor nitraat (50 milligram per liter) overschreden. De concentratie van cadmium, chroom, nikkel en zink lag op

  2. Evaluation of the national Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV); Evaluatie TrendMeetnet Verzuring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Goffau, A.; Wattel-Koekkoek, E.J.W.; Van der Hoek, K.W.; Boumans, L.J.M.

    2009-07-01

    The national Acidification Trend Monitoring Network (TMV) has proven to be an effective instrument for demonstrating the impacts of government policies on acidification and air pollution on the quality of groundwater in the Netherlands. The network records the effect of atmospheric deposition - the deposition of acidifying and eutrophicating substances from the atmosphere - on the quality of groundwater. Reduced deposition is reflected in improvements in groundwater quality. Based on these groundwater quality measurements, the network has demonstrated that nitrate concentrations in groundwater have dropped significantly over the past 30 years. These are the findings of an evaluation of the TMV that was performed by the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) by order of the Ministry of Public Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM). The TMV was established in 1989 and is administered by the RIVM. The network monitors the quality of the top 1 m of groundwater under natural areas (forest and heather land) with sandy soils. The groundwater under these areas is not affected by any other notable acidifying and eutrophicating substances and, in addition, sandy soils have a limited capacity to neutralize the impacts of acidification. For these reasons, the impacts of atmospheric deposition on groundwater quality are most clearly detected under natural terrains with sandy soils. In other monitoring networks, the effects of atmospheric deposition are difficult or impossible to distinguish from other sources of pollution. In agricultural areas, for example, the impacts of fertilizer application on groundwater quality eclipse those of other sources of pollution. The evaluation report recommends utilizing the measurements of the TMV in the Water Framework Directive reports on groundwater quality and, thereby, bringing the monitoring frequency of the TMV in line with the WFD reporting cycle (cycle of 6 years). In this case, the monitoring

  3. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  4. Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, R.D.; Carney, D.W.; Chilton-Radandt, T.; Courville, S.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Harris, R.B.; Jonkel, J.; McLellan, B.; Madel, M.; Manley, T.L.; Schwartz, C.C.; Servheen, C.; Stenhouse, G.; Waller, J.S.; Wenum, E.

    2012-01-01

    We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (mx) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

  5. Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans; Schaub, M.; Volet, B.; Hafliger, G.; Zbinden, N.

    2010-01-01

    Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Trends in anuran occupancy from northeastern states of the North American Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda; Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2009-01-01

    We present the first multi-year occupancy trends from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data in 10 northeastern states using seven years of data (2001-2007). NAAMP uses a calling survey technique where observers listen for anuran vocalizations along assigned random roadside routes. We were able to assess occupancy trends in 10 northeastern states for 16 species and one species complex, for 94 species/state combinations. We found no significant trends for 64 species/state combinations. For the remaining 30 species/state combinations with significant trends, these split between declining and increasing trends. On a species-by-species basis, two species had declining trends, with significant trends in six states for Pseudacris crucifer and four states for Bufo americanus. The trends of Rana catesbeiana significantly increased in four states, but had no trend in the remaining states.

  7. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  8. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A; Novak, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    .... Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes...

  9. Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

  10. Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; K C, Samir

    2010-09-27

    The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8-10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.

  11. Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

    2017-01-01

    Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects

  12. TRANSGENE ESCAPE MONITORING, POPULATION GENETICS, AND THE LAW

    Science.gov (United States)

    There has been little discussion about how to apply population genetics methods to monitor the spread of transgenes that are detected outside the agricultural populations where they are deployed. Population geneticists have developed tools for analyzing the genetic makeup of indi...

  13. Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Frédéric Jiguet; Vincent Devictor; Richard Ottvall; Chris Van Turnhout; Henk Van der Jeugd; Åke Lindström

    2010-01-01

    Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear...

  14. Breeding Status and Population Trends of Golden Eagles in Northeastern Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junior A. Tremblay

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In North America, it is hypothesized that the Golden Eagle's (Aquila chrysaetos eastern population declined during the period 1946-1973 because of organochlorine pesticides and other anthropogenic causes of mortality. Since 1970, upward trends for the species have been observed at most eastern hawkwatches. To determine whether such positive trends can be observed on breeding grounds, Golden Eagle counts were performed to monitor nesting territory occupancy between 1994 and 2007 in the Moisie and Sainte-Marguerite River valleys, northeastern Québec. Aerial surveys were conducted during seven of the 14 years. During this period, the number of known nesting territories in the study area increased from 10 to 20, while the number of pairs rose from six to 14. The increase is attributed mostly to investigators' improved experience in finding nests and to their greater familiarity with the study area, and possibly to the growth of the regional population. Occupancy of nesting territories by pairs was very stable over the years. Annual mean % of laying pairs (or laying rate was 48.0 (SD = 19.9, and productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair was 0.49 (SD = 0.35.

  15. Trends in HIV-1 prevalence and risk behaviours over 15 years in a rural population in Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holm-Hansen Carol

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Monitoring dynamics in HIV-1 infection and risk behaviours is important in evaluating, adjusting and scaling up prevention programmes. The objective of this study was to estimate trends in the prevalence of HIV-1 infection and risk behaviours over 15 years in a rural village population in Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania using repeated population-based cross-sectional surveys. Methods Four rounds of HIV-1 sero-epidemiological and behavioural surveys were completed during 1991 to 2005 in the study village. House-to-house registrations of people aged 15–44 years with an address in the village were conducted before each survey. All consenting individuals were then interviewed for pertinent risk behaviours and tested for HIV-1 seropositivity. Results Participation proportions ranged from 73.0% to 79.1%. Overall, age and sex-adjusted HIV-1 prevalence increased from 3.2% in 1991 to 5.6 % in 2005 (relative increase 75.0%; ptrend trends trend trends trend Conclusion The HIV-1 prevalence seems to have increased among older participants but remained stable among younger participants. Encouraging trends toward safer sex practices were observed among young participants, while only modest behavioural changes were seen among the older participants. Prevention efforts in rural areas need to be intensified and to address people of all ages.

  16. Nitrogen and phosphorus trend analysis in Latvia agricultural monitoring stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimanta, Z.; Vircavs, V.; Veinbergs, A.; Lauva, D.; Ambramenko, K.; Gailuma, A.; VÄ«tola, I.

    2012-04-01

    Water quality depends on human activity. Intensive agriculture is one of the main sources, that cause water quality pollution and eutrophication. The use of fertilizers not only improves soil fertility, crop yield and quality, but also causes water pollution. Human activities, including the use of fertilizer, promote nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations in water. Compared to the 90th agricultural production in Latvia has progressed. Vulnerable zones have been specified in the country. It is situated in the region of Zemgale's south site, within the border Lithuania. There are defined requirements for water and soil protection from agricultural activity that cause nitrate pollution. The EU Nitrates Directive aim is to protect water from nitrate pollution. In Latvia defined nitrate values are: 50 mg/l NO3 or 11.2 mg/l N/NO3 and Ptot - 0.2 mg/l. As agriculture has became intensive and the use of fertilizers has grown, results indicate that the leaching potential and values of N and P has increased. Nutrients leaching in agricultural areas have observed all year in vulnerable zones, but it's values changes depending on season. The highest nutrient concentrations observe in winter and spring periods, particularly in snow and ice melting periods. The lowest values are in summer. Nutrient leaching potencial depends on precipitation, plant vegetation, season, fertilization type and soil cultivation process. N and P leaching can decrease, taking consideration the use time of fertilizers and good agricultural practices. Research objects are monitoring stations Bērze and Mellupīte with tree research scales: drainage fields, small catchments and observation wells. The research analyses N and P concentrations in groundwater (2006-2010) and drain field and small catchment runoff (1995-2010). The aim of the research is to analyze nitrate and phosphorus concentration fluctuations in a time period. To determine nutrient concentrations, water samples were collected

  17. Trends in population blood pressure and determinant factors for population blood pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Ulla Overgaard

    2017-03-01

    Strategies to reduce the burden of blood pressure attributable diseases require knowledge of secular trend in PBP and its determinants. The issues were investigated in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The design of CCHS is a repeated measures study. Such designs are uniquely suited to studying changes of an outcome and what risk factors may be associated with that outcome. Repeated measures studies are very well suited for trend analysis by using mixed effect analyses. SBP decreased about 2 mmHg in 25 years. The risk factors age, gender and BMI were found valid as determinant factors for secular trends in SBP. In addition, the following factors were identified: household income and the interactions ''gender*age'' and ''survey*age''. The interaction ''gender*age'' stated that the difference between SBP in the two genders was great in the young individuals and diminished by age. The interaction ''survey*age'' stated that SBP in the young individuals decreased more with survey than SBP in the older individuals. Thus, the 20 years old subjects in survey 2, 3 and 4 have lower SBP than the 20 years old subjects in preceding surveys. The slopes were less steep in higher ages. In the group of elderly and old subjects the trend is partly explained by treatment bias because more and more subjects leave the untreated group and start treatment. The factor ''household income'' was significant only in the female population and stated that high-income women had lower SBP and a more beneficial secular trend in SBP than low-income women. Marital status, self-reported physical exercise and alcohol intake were not significant factors. A number of factors, that are interesting in relation to SBP, were not included in the CCHS and therefore not investigated. Among them are salt intake, childhood factors, genetic factors and the DASH diet. A survival study was performed to investigate the mortality rate in relation to SBP changes during the observation period. A Cox regression analysis

  18. Workforce Diversity: Monitoring Employment Trends in Public Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guajardo, Salomon A.

    1999-01-01

    Presents the use of research designs that can be used by human resource specialists to evaluate and monitor work force diversity and minority employment. Compares results of Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor design with Repeated Measure Analyses of Variance with One Within-subjects Factor by job category. (JOW)

  19. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotson, Lorraine; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Ngoprasert, Dusit; Wong, Wai-Ming; Fieberg, John

    2017-01-01

    Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%). Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement) to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that all assumptions

  20. Monitoring marine populations and communities: methods dealing with imperfect detectability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katsanevakis, S.; Weber, A.; Pipitone, C.; Leopold, M.F.; Scheidat, M.; Boois, de I.J.; Jansen, J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Effective monitoring of populations and communities is a prerequisite for ecosystem-based management of marine areas. However, monitoring programs often neglect important sources of error and thus can lead to biased estimates, spurious conclusions and false management actions. One such source of err

  1. Monitoring marine populations and communities: methods dealing with imperfect detectability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Katsanevakis, S.; Weber, A.; Pipitone, C.; Leopold, M.F.; Scheidat, M.; Boois, de I.J.; Jansen, J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Effective monitoring of populations and communities is a prerequisite for ecosystem-based management of marine areas. However, monitoring programs often neglect important sources of error and thus can lead to biased estimates, spurious conclusions and false management actions. One such source of err

  2. 1. HUMAN POPULATION MONITORING FOR CANCER PREVENTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Most of the chemicals classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as human carcinogens are mutagenic across test systems, cf. [www.epa.gov/gapdb ] and induce tumors at multiple sites in rodent species. They are therefore readity detected in short term tests for gene-tic and related effects (GRE), in animal carcinogenesis bioassays and in human monitoring studies. Carcinogens that are not genotoxic may be studied using new toxicogenomic approaches as will be discussed. A Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) database is planned by the National Center for Toxicogenomics to contain information on such compounds. The 1992 Preamble to the IARC Monographs

  3. Trends in monitoring patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Springborg, J B; Frederiksen, H-J; Eskesen, V

    2005-01-01

    After aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), the clinical outcome depends upon the primary haemorrhage and a number of secondary insults in the acute post-haemorrhagic period. Some secondary insults are potentially preventable but prevention requires prompt recognition of cerebral or systemic...... with the conventional monitoring systems, for example intracranial pressure measurements, transcranial Doppler ultrasound and modern neuro-imaging, direct assessment of biochemical markers by intracerebral microdialysis is promising in the advancement of neurointensive care of patients with SAH. A successfully...

  4. Intraoperative auditory monitoring in vestibular schwannoma surgery: new trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmerber, Sébastien; Lavieille, Jean-Pierre; Dumas, Georges; Herve, Thierry

    2004-01-01

    To investigate the efficiency of a new method of brainstem auditory-evoked potential (BAEP) monitoring during complete vestibular schwannoma (VS) resection with attempted hearing preservation. Dedicated software providing near real-time recording was developed using a rejection strategy of artifacts based on spectral analysis. A small sample number (maximum 200) is required and results are obtained within 10 s. Fourteen consecutive patients with hearing class A operated on for VS, in an attempt to preserve hearing, participated in the investigation. Postoperatively, 7 patients (50%) had useful hearing (hearing class A, 4/14; hearing class B, 3/14) on the operated side. Seven patients (50%) were reduced to hearing class D. Drilling of the internal auditory canal (IAC) and tumor removal at the lateral end of the IAC were identified as the two most critical steps for achieving hearing preservation. Intraoperative BAEP monitoring was sensitive in detecting auditory damage with useful feedback but its effectiveness in preventing irreversible hearing impairment was not demonstrated in this study. Combined BAEP and direct auditory nerve monitoring using the same equipment will be performed in the future in an attempt to enhance the chances of preventing irreversible hearing damage, and possibly to improve the hearing outcome significantly.

  5. Wireless-accessible sensor populations for monitoring biological variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzu, Marco; Scalvini, Simonetta; Giordano, A.; Frumento, E.; Wells, Hannah; Lokhorst, C.; Glisenti, Fulvio

    2008-01-01

    The current health-care infrastructure is generally considered to be inadequate to meet the needs of an increasingly older population. We have investigated the feasibility of a passive in-home monitoring system based on wireless accessible sensor populations (WASP). In an EU-funded project we have

  6. Wireless-accessible sensor populations for monitoring biological variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzu, Marco; Scalvini, Simonetta; Giordano, A.; Frumento, E.; Wells, Hannah; Lokhorst, C.; Glisenti, Fulvio

    2008-01-01

    The current health-care infrastructure is generally considered to be inadequate to meet the needs of an increasingly older population. We have investigated the feasibility of a passive in-home monitoring system based on wireless accessible sensor populations (WASP). In an EU-funded project we have i

  7. Trends in childhood injury mortality in South African population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1990-01-09

    Jan 9, 1990 ... injury mortality rates.1,6, This study examines trends in injury monality rates and the ... Child Safety Centre, Red Cross War Memorial Children's. Hospital and ..... increase in deaths among older coloured children. Wyndham21 .... and head injury admissions to Groote Schuur Hospital. S Afr Med J 1974;.

  8. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  9. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  10. Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettinga, Peter N; Arnason, Arni Neil; Manseau, Micheline; Cross, Dale; Whaley, Kent; Wilson, Paul J

    2012-08-01

    A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture-recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (2003) and the provincial Manitoba Endangered Species Act (2006). Between 2004 and 2009 (9 surveys), we collected 1,080 fecal samples and identified 180 unique genotypes (102 females and 78 males). We used a robust design survey plan with 2 surveys in most years and analysed the data with Program MARK to estimate encounter rates (p), apparent survival rates (ϕ), rates of population change (λ), and population sizes (N). We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females and for 2 genetic clusters within the North Interlake. The population size estimates were larger for the Lower than the Upper North Interlake area and the proportion of males was lower in the Lower (33%) than the Upper North Interlake (49%). Population rate of change for the entire North Interlake area (2005-2009) using the robust design Pradel model was significantly trends, which correspond to trends observed in other fragmented populations of woodland caribou along the southern part of their range. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the applicability and success of non-invasive genetic sampling in monitoring populations of woodland caribou. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.

  11. Recent trends in nanomaterials applications in environmental monitoring and remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sumistha; Sen, Biswarup; Debnath, Nitai

    2015-12-01

    Environmental pollution is one of the greatest problems that the world is facing today, and it is increasing with every passing year and causing grave and irreparable damage to the earth. Nanomaterials, because of their novel physical and chemical characteristics, have great promise to combat environment pollution. Nanotechnology is being used to devise pollution sensor. A variety of materials in their nano form like iron, titanium dioxide, silica, zinc oxide, carbon nanotube, dendrimers, polymers, etc. are increasingly being used to make the air clean, to purify water, and to decontaminate soil. Nanotechnology is also being used to make renewable energy cheaper and more efficient. The use of nanotechnology in agriculture sector will reduce the indiscriminate use of agrochemicals and thus will reduce the load of chemical pollutant. While remediating environment pollution with nanomaterials, it should also be monitored that these materials do not contribute further degradation of the environment. This review will focus broadly on the applications of nanotechnology in the sustainable development with particular emphasis on renewable energy, air-, water-, and soil-remediation. Besides, the review highlights the recent developments in various types of nanomaterials and nanodevices oriented toward pollution monitoring and remediation.

  12. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, T.J.; Irvine, K.M.; Vierling, K.T.; Vierling, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  13. Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angel, Jacqueline L; Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

    2016-12-07

    Although all nations in the America's face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico's population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world's eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the "demographic dividend" of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico.

  14. Genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mäki, K.; Groen, A.F.; Liinamo, A.E.; Ojala, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations. The influence of time-dependent fixed effects in the model when estimating the genetic trends was also studied. Official hip and elbow dysplasia screening

  15. Seasonality of Ankle Swelling: Population Symptom Reporting Using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fangwei; Allan, G Michael; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael; Flook, Nigel; Sternberg, Harvey; Garrison, Scott

    2016-07-01

    In our experience, complaints of ankle swelling are more common in summer, typically from patients with no obvious cardiovascular disease. Surprisingly, this observation has never been reported. To objectively establish this phenomenon, we sought evidence of seasonality in the public's Internet searches for ankle swelling. Our data, obtained from Google Trends, consisted of all related Google searches in the United States from January 4, 2004, to January 26, 2016. Consistent with our expectations and confirmed by similar data for Australia, Internet searches for information on ankle swelling are highly seasonal (highest in midsummer), with seasonality explaining 86% of search volume variability.

  16. Advanced Technologies for Acoustic Monitoring of Bird Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Grasshopper Sparrow Henslow’s Sparrow Detection and classification software for songs/calls of target species The Bioacoustics Research Program has...instruments and signal detection and classification software has the potential to lead to improved monitoring of bird populations on DoD lands and elsewhere...the area surveyed. These hardware and software tools can also enable passive acoustic monitoring of nocturnally migrating birds across large

  17. Recent trends in the condition monitoring of transformers theory, implementation and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakravorti, Sivaji; Chatterjee, Biswendu

    2013-01-01

    Recent Trends in the Condition Monitoring of Transformers reflects the current interest in replacing traditional techniques used in power transformer condition monitoring with non-invasive measures such as polarization/depolarization current measurement, recovery voltage measurement, frequency domain spectroscopy and frequency response analysis. The book stresses the importance of scrutinizing the condition of transformer insulation which may fail under present day conditions of intensive use with the resulting degradation of dielectric properties causing functional failure of the transformer.

  18. [The growth and distribution of the population of Brazil: recent trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martine, G; Camargo, L

    1984-01-01

    Population trends underwent profound changes in Brazil during the last few decades. An important decrease in the rate of population growth was registered in the 1970s. This decrease is attributable to a decline in the level of fertility, which was observed in all regions and in both urban and rural areas. In order to explain this decline, it is necessary to analyze both structural and circumstantial factors related to the political, economic, and social context of the times. Main trends in population redistribution during the 1970s can be regrouped in terms of interregional exchanges and rural-urban migration. A growing convergence between these 2 types of patterns is observed in that population is increasingly being concentrated in densely populated areas of intense economic activities. The implications of these trends for public action are analyzed in the final section.

  19. [Macroeconomic recovery trends. Urban impact on the population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, J S

    1991-12-01

    Some reflections are presented on the impact of Mexico's macroeconomic policy on population dynamics and urban development in the immediate future as the opening and liberalization of the economic increasingly influence market forces. Although the actions envisaged in the macroeconomic policy are not yet consolidated, it is possible to foresee some of their consequences for the city and for population movement. It can be predicted that the macroeconomic policy will lead to greater economic growth and consolidation of the urban population because of positive expectations for stability and growth, and the resultant environment of confidence in the immediate future. A resurgence of private investment in goods and services directed primarily to private consumption will inevitable create demand for public investment in infrastructure and improved services. Demand for consumer durables in likely to rise, as is demand for housing. New residential zones are likely to appear and grow, changing the territorial configuration of urban areas. The urban administration should make some effort to control the growth.

  20. Recent trends in chemical composition of bulk precipitation at Estonian monitoring stations 1994-2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treier, K.; Pajuste, K.; Frey, J.

    Monthly and annual means of main anions (SO 42-, NO 3-, Cl -) and summed base cations (Ca 2+, Mg 2+, K +, Na +) in bulk precipitation were studied at 10 stations during an 8-year monitoring period. The data showed statistically significant decreasing trends in most cases. Average declines of mean annual volume-weighted concentrations for both anions and cations were about two-fold. Despite the decrease, the loads of S and cations are still relatively high in Estonia (about 4-14 kg S ha -1 and 0.6-1.2 keq ha -1, respectively) compared with the loads in Finland and Sweden. Estimated linear decline trends followed the same pattern as annually combusted oil shale from Estonian power plants and emissions of SO 2 and fly ash. Recent trends in chemical composition of bulk precipitation at the monitoring stations reflected economic changes in Estonia as well as transboundary fluxes from neighbouring countries.

  1. Surveillance of cattle health in the Netherlands: Monitoring trends and developments using routinely collected cattle census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santman-Berends, I M G A; Brouwer-Middelesch, H; Van Wuijckhuise, L; de Bont-Smolenaars, A J G; Van Schaik, G

    2016-11-01

    Since 2002, a national cattle health surveillance system (CHSS) is in place that consists of several surveillance components. The CHSS combines enhanced passive reporting, diagnostic and post-mortem examinations, random surveys for prevalence estimation of endemic diseases and quarterly data analysis. The aim of the data-analysis component, which is called the Trend Analysis Surveillance Component (TASC), is to monitor trends and developments in cattle health using routine census data. The challenges that were faced during the development of TASC and the merits of this surveillance component are discussed, which might be of help to those who want to develop a monitoring and surveillance system that includes data analysis. When TASC was developed, there were process-oriented challenges and analytical related issues that had to be solved. Process-oriented challenges involved data availability, confidentiality, quality, uniformity and economic value of the data. Analytical issues involved data validation, aggregation and modeling. Eventually, the results had to provide information on cattle health that was intuitive to the stakeholders and that could support decision making. Within TASC, both quarterly analysis on census data and, on demand, additional in-depth analysis are performed. The key monitoring indicators that are analyzed as part of TASC all relate to cattle health and involve parameters such as mortality, fertility, udder health and antimicrobial usage. Population-Averaged Generalized Estimating Equations, with the appropriate distribution (i.e. Gaussian, Poisson, Negative Binomial or Binomial) and link function (independent, log or logit), are used for analysis. Both trends in time and associations between cattle health indicators and potential confounders are monitored, discussed and reported to the stakeholders on a quarterly level. The flexibility of the in-depth analyses provides the possibility to conduct additional analyses when anomalies in trends

  2. How much effort is enough? The power of citizen science to monitor trends in coastal cetacean species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.B. Embling

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citizen scientists provide a cost-effective means of carrying out broad scale, long-term monitoring of the environment while fostering earth stewardship. In this study we investigate how much effort is required by citizen scientists to detect trends in the occurrence of a protected population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus. We analyse the WDC citizen science shore-based data collected over nine years (2005–2013 between April to October from within and in the vicinity of a Special Area of Conservation (SAC for bottlenose dolphins in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Watches comprised a continuous 10 minute scan of the survey area in an hour. During peak season, around 5 watches per day were required to detect annual or between-site trends of 50% in dolphin occurrence in locations where dolphins were sighted reliably (0.1 sightings per hour. Less effort was required at higher sightings rates, and it was not possible to statistically detect trends of <30%. This study highlights the importance of power analysis in designing citizen science programmes and demonstrates their effectiveness in carrying out long term shore-based monitoring of coastal cetacean species, providing a cost-effective early warning system for changes in the marine environment.

  3. Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

  4. Population Change: Know the Trends in Your Community. Coping with Change. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Annabel Kirschner

    Community leaders and government agency representatives need to understand local population trends, particularly in situations of rapid change. This publication outlines a simple framework for analysis of population changes, along with useful methods and criteria that can be applied when considering management and policy alternatives. Two…

  5. Red-cockaded woodpecker population trends and management on Texas national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph

    1994-01-01

    Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population trends and concurrent management on four national forests in eastern Texas were evaluated from 1983 through 1993. Following years of decline, populations stabilized and began to increase after intensive management efforts were initiated. Management activities included control of hardwood midstory and understory,...

  6. Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arno Thomaes

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for understanding and countering its current loss. However, monitoring of many species is hindered by their difficult detection due to crepuscular activity, hidden phases of the life cycle, short activity period and low population density. Few statistical power analyses of declining trends have been published for terrestrial invertebrates. Consequently, no knowledge exists of the success rate of monitoring elusive invertebrates. Here data from monitoring transects of the European stag beetle, Lucanus cervus, is used to investigate whether the population trend of this elusive species can be adequately monitored. Data from studies in UK, Switzerland and Germany were compiled to parameterize a simulation model explaining the stag beetle abundance as a function of temperature and seasonality. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the effort needed to detect a population abundance decline of 1%/year over a period of 12 years. To reveal such a decline, at least 240 1-hour transect walks on 40 to 100 transects need to be implemented in weekly intervals during warm evenings. It is concluded that monitoring of stag beetles is feasible and the effort is not greater than that which has been found for other invertebrates. Based on this example, it is assumed that many other elusive species with similar life history traits can be monitored with moderate efforts. As saproxylic invertebrates account for a large share of the forest biodiversity, although many are elusive, it is proposed that at least some flagship species are included in monitoring programmes.

  7. Accounting for imperfect detection is critical for inferring marine turtle nesting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph B Pfaller

    Full Text Available Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.

  8. Global population trends and human use patterns of Manta and Mobula rays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward-Paige, Christine A; Davis, Brendal; Worm, Boris

    2013-01-01

    Despite being the world's largest rays and providing significant revenue through dive tourism, little is known about the population status, exploitation and trade volume of the Mobulidae (mobulids; Manta and Mobula spp.). There is anecdotal evidence, however, that mobulid populations are declining, largely due to the recent emergence of a widespread trade for their gill rakers, which is reflected in increasing Food and Agriculture Organization landings trends. Here, we present results from two dedicated diver surveys, one from the eManta project, which includes summary observations from ninety 10°x10° regions with ∼200-62,000 dives per region, and the other from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation, which includes spatially more detailed observations from 3 regions with ∼4,000-118,000 dives per region. We show that mobulids as a group, which includes eleven species, have globally and regionally restricted distributions, typically have low sighting frequency (ecotourism occurs in many regions (45% of those reported, n = 41) they are considered protected in only 32% of the regions. Mobulids being fished or sold in local markets were reported from 16% and 12% of regions, respectively, with most being adjacent to mobulid abundance hotspot and ecotourism regions (e.g. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, east Africa). Identification of regions where ecotourism and exploitation are at odds could help prioritize conservation efforts. Vulnerability analysis, using life history characteristics, indicates that Manta spp. are vulnerable to exploitation, tolerating only low fishing mortality rates; data limitations prohibited such analysis for Mobula spp. Our analyses support previous studies in showing the need for improved conservation and monitoring efforts, and suggest that international and enforceable management policies are required to prevent further population decline.

  9. Trends in fertility and intermarriage among immigrant populations in Western Europe as measures of integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, D A

    1994-01-01

    Demographic data on fertility and intermarriage are useful measures of integration and assimilation. This paper reviews trends in total fertility and intermarriage of foreign populations in Europe and compares them with the trends in fertility of the host population and the sending country. In almost all cases fertility has declined. The fertility of most European immigrant populations and of some West Indian and non-Muslim Asian populations has declined to a period level at or below that of the host society. Muslim populations from Turkey, North Africa and South Asia have shown the least decline. Intermarriage is proceeding faster than might be expected in immigrant populations which seemed in economic terms to be imperfectly integrated. Up to 40% of West Indians born in the UK, for example, appear to have white partners as do high proportions of young Maghrebians in France.

  10. Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perles, Stephanie J.; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Callahan, Kristina K.; Marshall, Matthew R.

    2014-01-01

    Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of theVital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year−1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year−1 in most indicators.

  11. Evaluation of a regional monitoring program's statistical power to detect temporal trends in forest health indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perles, Stephanie J; Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J; Manning, Douglas R; Callahan, Kristina K; Marshall, Matthew R

    2014-09-01

    Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service's Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of the Vital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year(-1) for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year(-1) in most indicators.

  12. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  13. Institutional point-of-care glucometer identifies population trends in blood glucose associated with war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boaz, Mona; Matas, Zipora; Chaimy, Tova; Landau, Zohar; Bar Dayan, Yosefa; Berlovitz, Yitzhak; Wainstein, Julio

    2013-11-01

    Acute physiological stress has been shown to impair glucose homeostasis. War is a period of acute psychological stress, and its effect on glucose control is unknown. In this study random point-of-care (POC) glucose levels were measured using an automated, institutional glucometer in hospitalized adult patients prior to versus during the Israeli Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012). Random POC glucose values measured with the institutional blood glucose monitoring system were obtained 1 week prior to the Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012) and compared with values to those obtained during the first 4 days of the war (November 14-17, 2012). In total, 3,573 POC glucose measures were included: 1,865 during the pre-war period and 1,708 during the campaign. POC glucose measures were significantly higher during the war compared with the week preceding the war: 9.7±4.7 versus 9.3±4.2 mmol/L (P=0.02). In a general linear model, period (pre-war vs. during war) persisted as a significant predictor of POC glucose even after controlling for age, sex, and department type (internal medicine vs. surgical). Acute stress, such as a wartime situation, is associated with a significant increase in random blood glucose values in a population of hospitalized adults. Long-term follow-up of the individuals hospitalized during these two periods can reveal differences in morbidity and mortality trends.

  14. Indicator Species Population Monitoring in Antarctica with Uav

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmarz, A.; Korczak-Abshire, M.; Storvold, R.; Rodzewicz, M.; Kędzierska, I.

    2015-08-01

    A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km) were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 - 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance) less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  15. INDICATOR SPECIES POPULATION MONITORING IN ANTARCTICA WITH UAV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zmarz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 – 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  16. Epidemiology and trend of pediatric adenoidectomy: a population-based study in Taiwan from 1997 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chia-Hsuan; Hsu, Wei-Chung; Ko, Jenq-Yuh; Yeh, Te-Huei; Chang, Wei-Hsiu; Kang, Kun-Tai

    2017-07-27

    To assess population-level data for pediatric adenoidectomy. Using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for the 1997-2012 period, all inpatients trend trend trend trend of pediatric inpatient adenoidectomy incidence rates during 1997-2012 in Taiwan. Moreover, surgical indications have shifted from infections to SDB.

  17. Decreasing trend of hysterectomy in Taiwan: A population-based study, 1997–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry Cheng-Yen Lai

    2015-10-01

    Conclusion: The clinical utilization and primary indications of hysterectomy changed substantially in Taiwan from 1997 to 2010. The continued monitoring of changes in hysterectomy rates will be critical for understanding the appropriate indications for hysterectomy and oophorectomy, the emergence of alternative managements for uterine disorders, and future trends in women's reproductive health.

  18. Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andrew; Moreno-Mardinan, Max; Ryan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in

  19. The Diagnosis and Hemodynamic Monitoring of Circulatory Shock: Current and Future Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendy Adham

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory shock is a complex clinical syndrome encompassing a group of conditions that can arise from different etiologies and presented by several different hemodynamic patterns. If not corrected, cell dysfunction, irreversible multiple organ insufficiency, and death may occur. The four basic types of shock, hypovolemic, cardiogenic, obstructive and distributive, have features similar to that of hemodynamic shock. It is therefore essential, when monitoring hemodynamic shock, to making accurate clinical assessments which will guide and dictate appropriate management therapy. The European Society of Intensive Care has recently made recommendations for monitoring hemodynamic shock. The present paper discusses the issues raised in the new statements, including individualization of blood pressure targets, prediction of fluid responsiveness, and the use of echocardiography as the first means during the initial evaluation of circulatory shock. Also, the place of more invasive hemodynamic monitoring techniques and future trends in hemodynamic and metabolic monitoring in circulatory shock, will be debated.

  20. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2016-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi- State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  1. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    OpenAIRE

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer...

  2. Trends

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Shanghai Mode Lingerie continually strives to underline its status as a veritable reference on the fashion scene: an opportunity to explore trends, interpret key directions and gain an in-depth overview of lines to follow.

  3. Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: results from 27 populations in the WHO MONICA Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolonen, Hanna; Dobson, Annette; Kulathinal, Sangita

    2005-01-01

    In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

  4. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Quintero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  5. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

  6. Rock partridge (Alectoris graeca graeca population density and trends in central Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bontzorlos, V. A.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The rock partridge is an emblematic species of the Greek avifauna and one of the most important game species in the country. The present study, which combined long term in–situ counts with distance sampling methodology in central Greece, indicated that the species’ population in Greece is the highest within its European distribution, in contrast to all prior considerations. Inter–annual trends suggested a stable rock partridge population both within hunting areas and wildlife refuges, whereas during summer, the species presented significantly higher densities in altitudes of more than 1,000 m, most probably due to the effect of predation at lower zones. The similarity of population structure between wildlife refuges and hunting zones along with the stable population trends demonstrate that rock partridge harvest in the country is sustainable.

  7. Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Al-Salem

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

  8. Cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in animal feed and feed materials - trend analysis of monitoring results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamse, Paulien; Van der Fels-Klerx, H J Ine; de Jong, Jacob

    2017-03-02

    This study aimed to obtain insights into the presence of cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in feed materials and feed over time, for the purpose of guiding national monitoring. Data from the Dutch feed monitoring program and from representatives of the feed industry in the period 2007-2013 were used. Data covered the concentrations of cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic in a variety of feed materials and compound feeds in The Netherlands. Trends in the percentage of samples that exceeded the maximum limit (ML), set by the European Commission, and trends in average, median and 90(th) percentile concentrations of each of these elements per feed material or compound feed were investigated. Based on the results, monitoring for cadmium, lead, mercury and arsenic should focus on feed material of mineral origin, feed material of marine origin, especially fish meal, seaweed and algae as well as feed additives belonging to the functional groups of (i) trace elements (notably cupric sulphate, zinc oxide and manganese oxide for arsenic) and (ii) binders and anti-caking agents. Mycotoxin binders are a new group of feed additives that also need attention. For complementary feed it is important to make a proper distinction between mineral and non-mineral feed because the ML in the latter group is usually lower. In seaweed/algae products a relatively large number of samples contained arsenic concentrations that exceeded the ML. Forage crops in general do not need high priority in monitoring programs, although for arsenic grass meal still needs attention.

  9. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study....... In addition, there was a trend towards a lowering of risk-factor adjusted SBP in the high income women with time. The mechanism that lies behind the associations between trend in SBP and income is not known but data suggest that poor lifestyle may explain some of the differences. The treated hypertensives...... was to investigate association between income factors and trends in population BP and hypertension. Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study on almost 20000 individuals through four surveys from 1976 to 2003. The BP measurement was fully standardised. Questionnaires...

  10. Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龙泳; 高保林; 张景霞; 杨军; 黄久仪; 胡继新; 徐德忠; 卢娟

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

  11. Abundance, distribution and population trends of Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) in Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zisadza-Gandiwa, P.; Gandiwa, E.; Jakarasi, J.; Westhuizen, van der H.; Muvengwi, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) is an iconic or keystone species in many aquatic ecosystems. In order to understand the abundance, distribution, and population trends of Nile crocodiles in Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, we carried out 4 annual aerial surveys, using

  12. Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, G. Vernon; Schmutz, Joel A.; Renner, Heather M.

    2008-08-01

    The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres ( Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population

  13. Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, G.V.; Schmutz, J.A.; Renner, H.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres (Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population

  14. Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Taylor A.; Afton, Alan D.; Schummer, Michael L.; Petrie, Scott A.; Badzinski, Shannon S.; Johnson, Michael A.; Szymanski, Michael L.; Jacobs, Kevin J.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Mitchell, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup (Aythya affinis; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters (n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known

  15. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends: e86814

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Neil Paprocki; Julie A Heath; Stephen J Novak

    2014-01-01

    .... Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes...

  16. Trends of forest area and population and the impact of population on forest area per hectare in Serbia without APS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Nenad

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Socio-economic changes throughout history have shaped the attitude towards the forest and most significant ones are changes in terms of population. Over the centuries population and population density have had a significant impact on deforestation and the reduction of forest areas. Therefore, it is important to check what kind of trends are concerned and how population growth affects forest areas, forest cover and forest area per capita. These elements are important for assessing the direction, intensity of activity and the degree of success in the implementation of all forest policy measures in Serbia. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Istraživanja klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje, podprojekat, br. 43007/16-III: Socio-ekonomski razvoj, ublažavanje i adaptacija na klimatske promene

  17. MONITORING TREE POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ARID ZONE THROUGH MULTIPLE TEMPORAL SCALES: INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS, CHANGE DETECTION AND FIELD LONG TERM MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Isaacson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available High mortality rates and lack of recruitment in the acacia populations throughout the Negev Desert and the Arava rift valley of Israel have been reported in previous studies. However, it is difficult to determine whether these reports can be evidence to a significant decline trend of the trees populations. This is because of the slow dynamic processes of acaia tree populations and the lack of long term continuous monitoring data. We suggest a new data analysis technique that expands the time scope of the field long term monitoring of trees in arid environments. This will enables us to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of these populations. We implemented two different approaches in order to expand the time scope of the acacia population field survey: (1 individual based tree change detection using Corona satellite images and (2 spatial analysis of trees population, converting spatial data into temporal data. The next step was to integrate the results of the two analysis techniques (change detection and spatial analysis with field monitoring. This technique can be implemented to other tree populations in arid environments to help assess the vegetation conditions and dynamics of those ecosystems.

  18. Southern James Bay Population : Canada Geese : Population Trend Information 1973-1992

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report explains the concern about the status of the Southern James Bay Population of Canada Geese at Wheeler National Wildlife Refuge. Since both Tennessee and...

  19. Sample size for monitoring sirex populations and their natural enemies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete do Rocio Chiarello Penteado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The woodwasp Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae was introduced in Brazil in 1988 and became the main pest in pine plantations. It has spread to about 1.000.000 ha, at different population levels, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Control is done mainly by using a nematode, Deladenus siricidicola Bedding (Nematoda: Neothylenchidae. The evaluation of the efficiency of natural enemies has been difficult because there are no appropriate sampling systems. This study tested a hierarchical sampling system to define the sample size to monitor the S. noctilio population and the efficiency of their natural enemies, which was found to be perfectly adequate.

  20. Sample size for monitoring sirex populations and their natural enemies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete do Rocio Chiarello Penteado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The woodwasp Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae was introduced in Brazil in 1988 and became the main pest in pine plantations. It has spread to about 1.000.000 ha, at different population levels, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Control is done mainly by using a nematode, Deladenus siricidicola Bedding (Nematoda: Neothylenchidae. The evaluation of the efficiency of natural enemies has been difficult because there are no appropriate sampling systems. This study tested a hierarchical sampling system to define the sample size to monitor the S. noctilio population and the efficiency of their natural enemies, which was found to be perfectly adequate.

  1. Genetic and phenotypic trends of fertility traits for Holstein dairy population in warm and temperate climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabie Rahbar

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to investigate genetic and phenotypic trends for fertility traits in Holstein dairy population under warm and temperate climate. Fertility traits were: success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open. The edited data set included up to 23,402 records from 9,486 cows. The mean and standard deviation for fertility traits were 0.32 ± 0.003, 278.2 ± 5.58, 2.73 ± 1.94,0.31 ± 0.001, 415.99 ± 79.62, 40.4 ± 6.08 and 140.36 ± 76.16 for success in first service, gestation length, number of inseminations, insemination outcome, calving interval, calving birth weight and days open, respectively. In general, there were decreasing genetic trends for all traits over the years. On the other hand, there were decreasing phenotypic trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight, but estimates of phenotypic trends were positive for success in first service and insemination outcome over the years. It was concluded decreased trend for days open, calving interval, gestation length, number of inseminations and calving birth weight and increased trend for success in first service and insemination outcome traits over time indicated that Holstein dairy producers in warm and temperate climate were successful in managing and improving in nutrition during 1999 to 2013.

  2. Age trends in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in Roma minority population of Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeljko, Hrvojka Marija; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Narančić, Nina Smolej; Barešić, Ana; Tomas, Zeljka; Petranović, Matea Zajc; Miličić, Jasna; Salihović, Marijana Peričić; Janićijević, Branka

    2013-07-01

    The Roma (Gypsy) are the largest European minority population characterized by poverty, social exclusion as well as by numerous life-style and cultural specificities, which all could have an adverse impact on their cardiovascular health. This study assesses the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors in community-based sample of 430 adult Roma, living in rural area of Croatia, by providing the actual and age-adjusted estimates using the European standard population. The most prominent classical CVD risk phenotypes (blood pressure, obesity, smoking, glucose and lipid profile) were selected, and the standard risk cut-offs were applied. The study has shown that compared to general population of Croatia, the Roma population bears a high CVD risk factors load related to smoking and high glucose level. The CVD risk factors prevalence in Roma also showed important sex and age patterns, the most imposing of which are the findings of higher prevalence of CVD risks in women (especially obesity and triglyceride levels) and the trend of higher body mass index (BMI) level in younger age group (18-34 years) which both stand in contrast to the trends characterizing the general population of Croatia. These findings are complemented by the trend of decreased risk in the oldest age group (65+ years) for all investigated CVD risk factors (with exception of triglycerides level) compared to the 50-64 age group. We conclude that the age and sex CVD risks pattern point to the health transition of this rural Roma population. As we expect the proportion of CVD in the Roma minority of Croatia to increase in the future along with further modernization of their lifestyle, the CVD prevention measures in this population are urgent and should be primarily targeted at women and at the younger segment of this population.

  3. Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimates of population size are often crucial to determining status and planning recovery of endangered species. The ability to detect trends in survival and population size over time enables conservation managers to make effective decisions for species and refuge management. During 2004–2007, the translocated population of endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis; also Laysan Duck) was fitted with radio transmitters providing known (―gold standard‖) measures of survival and reproduction. However, as the population grew, statistically rigorous monitoring protocols were needed that were less labor intensive than radio telemetry. A population die-off and alarmingly high number of carcasses (181) were recorded during a botulism epizootic in August–October 2008, which further reinforced the need for effective monitoring protocols since this endangered species is vulnerable to catastrophic population declines. In fall 2008, we initiated a pilot study using standardized surveys with uniquely marked birds to monitor abundance and estimate the population growth rate of the reintroduced Laysan Teal. Since few birds carried marks (leg bands) after the 2008 botulism die-off (only about 15% of the population), and standardized surveys were not yet implemented, the magnitude of the die-off on the population size was unknown.

  4. Results of the of wintering bird populations monitoring in the region of Nizhnee Prisurye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina S. Preobrazhenskaya

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The monitoring of wintering bird populations in the region of Nizhnee Prisurie on the territory of Chuvash Republic was carried out in 1989–1990. From 2000 censuses were conducted on the territory of the nature reserve "Prisurskiy" and the National Park "Chavash Varmane". These regular censuses were called project "Parus" by the Menzbir Ornithological Society of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The last ten years they were also included in the overall-Russian campaign "Euro-Asian Christmas Bird Counts" project from the Russian Birds Conservation Union. During these 20 years there were 44 bird species registered in the studied area. Eleven of them are marked by single or rare. Four species - Regulus regulus, Aegithalos caudatus, Spinus spinus and Carduelis carduelis – increased their abundance from 1990 till the middle 2000-s and then – decreased. Dendrocopos minor showed the opposite trend. The abundance of 13 species in the 1990-s was higher, sometimes significantly, than in the 2000s and 2010s. The reason may be searched in the differences between the censuses areas in 1990s and 2000s. However, the decreasing of the population densities is typical for other forest species, not only in Nizhnee Prisurie, but also in other model territories. In general, during the last 25 years we can see negative trends in the population dynamics of wintering bird species within the East European plain.

  5. [Genetic ecological monitoring in human populations: heterozygosity, mtDNA haplotype variation, and genetic load].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanovskiĭ, O P; Koshel', S M; Zaporozhchenko, V V; Pshenichnov, A S; Frolova, S A; Kuznetsova, M A; Baranova, E E; Teuchezh, I E; Kuznetsova, A A; Romashkina, M V; Utevskaia, O M; Churnosov, M I; Villems, R; Balanovskaia, E V

    2011-11-01

    Yu. P. Altukhov suggested that heterozygosity is an indicator of the state of the gene pool. The idea and a linked concept of genetic ecological monitoring were applied to a new dataset on mtDNA variation in East European ethnic groups. Haplotype diversity (an analog of the average heterozygosity) was shown to gradually decrease northwards. Since a similar trend is known for population density, interlinked changes were assumed for a set of parameters, which were ordered to form a causative chain: latitude increases, land productivity decreases, population density decreases, effective population size decreases, isolation of subpopulations increases, genetic drift increases, and mtDNA haplotype diversity decreases. An increase in genetic drift increases the random inbreeding rate and, consequently, the genetic load. This was confirmed by a significant correlation observed between the incidence of autosomal recessive hereditary diseases and mtDNA haplotype diversity. Based on the findings, mtDNA was assumed to provide an informative genetic system for genetic ecological monitoring; e.g., analyzing the ecology-driven changes in the gene pool.

  6. Epidemiological and mortality trends in infective endocarditis, a 17-year population-based prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavarelli, Mario; Scalese, Marco; Nencioni, Cesira; Valentini, Silvia; Guerrini, Francesco; D’Aiello, Incoronata; Picchi, Andrea; De Sensi, Francesco; Habib, Gilbert

    2017-01-01

    Background The population at risk, the clinical and microbiological features of infective endocarditis (IE) have changed. Aim of our study was to evaluate the contemporary epidemiological trends, over a 17-year period in a definite region of Tuscany, Italy, to analyze the clinical outcomes and associated prognostic factors. Methods From 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2014, all patients with a definite diagnosis of IE were prospectively entered in a data-base. The Health-Care system data-base was interrogated to capture patients who could have been missed. The final dataset derived by the merging of the two data-bases. Results Incidence rate of IE was 4.6/100,000/y with a significant linear incidence increase. In hospitalized patients the incidence was 1.27/1,000 admissions. Over age 65 incidence rate was 11.7/100,000/y. Male/female ratio was 1.54:1. A temporal trend towards an increase in the mean population age was found (P=0.033). There was an increase in the incidence of Health-care associated IE, P=0.016. The most common microorganisms were staphylococcus aureus (25%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (22%). In-hospital mortality was 24%. A trend towards an increase in mortality rate was found (P=0.055). Independent predictors of mortality were older age, S. aureus infection, heart failure, septic shock and persistent bacteremia. Conclusions Our study confirms an increasing mortality trend in IE, although with a borderline significance. Elderly forms are associated with poor prognosis and higher than 1-year mortality rate even in the multivariate analysis. Ageing population, increase in healthcare-associated and staphylococcal infections, may explain the rise of IE incidence and of the mortality trend. PMID:28164010

  7. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  8. Fertility rates and future population trends: will Europe's birth rate recover or continue to decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang

    2006-02-01

    Europe has long completed its demographic transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. But the demographic transition paradigm that has been very useful for explaining global demographic trends during the 20th century and that still has strong predictive power when it comes to projecting future trends in countries that still have high fertility, has nothing to say about the future of fertility in Europe. The currently popular notion of a 'second demographic transition' is a useful way to describe a bundle of behavioural and normative changes that recently happened in Europe, but it has no predictive power. The social sciences have not yet come up with a useful theory to predict the future fertility level of post-demographic transition societies. We even do not know whether the trend will be up or down. Given the lack of a predictive theory, this paper will try to do two things: (i) Summarize different substantive arguments that would either suggest the assumption of a recovery of fertility rates in Europe or alternatively, imply further declines. (ii) Convert this discussion of the uncertainty of future fertility trends into probabilistic population projections for Europe, thus highlighting the implications of alternative fertility levels over the coming years. We will also discuss trade-offs between fertility and immigration, and the phenomenon that Europe now has entered a period of negative momentum of population growth.

  9. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  10. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  11. THE MAIN TRENDS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ROSPOTREBNADZOR IN THE LENINGRAD REGION AND THE GOVERNMENT OF LENINGRAD REGION IN THE FIELD OF POPULATION RADIATION PROTECTION

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    S. A. Gorbanev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the main interaction trends of the Administration of Rospotrebnadzor in the Leningrad Region and the Government of Leningrad Region regarding issues of regional radiation protection. It reports on comprehensive measures devoted to the limitation of the population exposure from natural irradiation sources, monitoring of territories which suffered from Chernobyl NPP accident and monitoring of the environmental impact of unauthorized dumps and solid municipal waste sites in the Leningrad Region. It presents the basic issues of medical exposure limitation in the Leningrad Region and measures for their solving.

  12. Recent Trends and Developments: Regional Co-operation in Population Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population Education in Asia and the Pacific Newsletter and Forum, 1990

    1990-01-01

    Presented is an outline of objectives and outcomes specific to curriculum development, materials development, professional training, research and assessment, management and monitoring, and an agenda for future consultative seminars, all formulated at the UNESCO-sponsored regional consultative seminar on population education during May 1990, in…

  13. Use of geographic information systems to depict and analyze mosquito population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosquitoes transmit (vector) disease agents that cause malaria, yellow fever, dengue, West Nile fever, and encephalitis. Spread of these diseases is controlled by the management of mosquito population levels, changes in which are monitored in vector surveillance programs by the use of mechanical tr...

  14. Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As the demand for wind energy continues to grow at exponential rates, reducing operation and maintenance (OM costs and improving reliability have become top priorities in wind turbine (WT maintenance strategies. In addition to the development of more highly evolved WT designs intended to improve availability, the application of reliable and cost-effective condition-monitoring (CM techniques offers an efficient approach to achieve this goal. This paper provides a general review and classification of wind turbine condition monitoring (WTCM methods and techniques with a focus on trends and future challenges. After highlighting the relevant CM, diagnosis, and maintenance analysis, this work outlines the relationship between these concepts and related theories, and examines new trends and future challenges in the WTCM industry. Interesting insights from this research are used to point out strengths and weaknesses in today’s WTCM industry and define research priorities needed for the industry to meet the challenges in wind industry technological evolution and market growth.

  15. A wireless sensor network for urban traffic characterization and trend monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Lozano, J J; Martín-Guzmán, Miguel; Martín-Ávila, Juan; García-Cerezo, A

    2015-10-15

    Sustainable mobility requires a better management of the available infrastructure resources. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to obtain accurate data about road usage, in particular in urban areas. Although a variety of sensor alternates for urban traffic exist, they usually require extensive investments in the form of construction works for installation, processing means, etc. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are an alternative to acquire urban traffic data, allowing for flexible, easy deployment. Together with the use of the appropriate sensors, like Bluetooth identification, and associate processing, WSN can provide the means to obtain in real time data like the origin-destination matrix, a key tool for trend monitoring which previously required weeks or months to be completed. This paper presents a system based on WSN designed to characterize urban traffic, particularly traffic trend monitoring through the calculation of the origin-destination matrix in real time by using Bluetooth identification. Additional sensors are also available integrated in different types of nodes. Experiments in real conditions have been performed, both for separate sensors (Bluetooth, ultrasound and laser), and for the whole system, showing the feasibility of this approach.

  16. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  17. Seasonal trends of whitefly populations in a Mediterranean tomato growing area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nannini, M; Foddi, F; Murgia, G; Pisci, R; Sanna, F; Testa, M

    2009-01-01

    The whiteflies Bemisia tabaci and Trialeurodes vaporariorum and their associated viruses constitute a major threat to tomato crops in the Mediterranean region. Continuous host availability and mild climate are thought to be among the factors contributing to the outbreaks of whitefly-related problems in this area. We carried out a year-long survey to investigate the relative contribution of different plants, agricultural and not, and indoor/outdoor crops as hosts of the two whiteflies and the tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD) in a multi-crop system typical of tomato growing areas in southern Sardinia (S. Margherita di Pula, Cagliari, Italy). For this purpose, during 2005 we monitored whitefly population trends in different plots of a horticulture farm, evaluated seasonal changes in the infestation density of the two pests on the most represented host species and assessed the incidence of TYLCD on tomato crops and susceptible weeds. Whitefly catches on yellow sticky traps were found to be higher inside et along the external perimeter of greenhouses compared to open field crops or uncultivated areas, thus suggesting significant adult movement between indoor and outdoor patches. In most plots flight activity increased between late spring and late summer, peaking in July. The number of immatures of the two whitefly species showed similar dynamics, but while T. vaporariorum reached the highest densities in greenhouse tomato crops in June, peak levels of 8. tabaci were recorded between July and August in outdoor horticultural crops and weeds. The occurrence of TYLCD was detected all year round on weed hosts, but the highest number of infected plants was observed in June on long cycle tomato crops. The present survey has demonstrated the contribution of non-agricultural plants the maintenance of tomato yellow leaf curl disease in the study site. However, tomato crops established in summer as major reservoirs of TYLCD-associated viruses and presumably played a key

  18. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  19. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  20. Trend of cardiovascular risk factors in the older Iranian population: 2002-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Ali; Lotfaliany, Mojtaba; Akbarpour, Samaneh; Azizi, Fereidoun; Hadaegh, Farzad

    2017-08-31

    Current study aimed to investigate the sex-stratified secular trend of cardiovascular disease risk factors among an older population in Iran during a median follow-up period of 8.76 years. A total of 1490 participants (733 women) aged ≥60 years were evaluated in four study phases of 2002-2005, 2005-2008, 2008-2011 and 2011-2014. The trends of cardiovascular disease risk factors for each sex were estimated using generalized estimating equations. The age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, central obesity, and chronic kidney disease at the baseline was 24%, 43%, 55%, and 32% in men and 31%, 57%, 60% and 53% in women, respectively, and had noticeable upward trend during the study period to reach 35%, 56%, 61% and 51% in men, and 42%, 71%, 74% and 67% in women, respectively. However, lipid profile parameters showed favorable trends. Despite the increasing trend in drug consumption, approximately 27% of women with diabetes and 37% of men with diabetes did not use antidiabetic medication, respectively; the results were 23% and 35% for hypertensive women and men, respectively. Among men, there was a decreasing trend towards low physical activity, from 40% at baseline to 26% at the most recent follow up. The prevalence of smoking remained steady throughout follow up. Despite the benefits of lipid lowering, the status of other risk factor profiles are often suboptimal in both sexes. There remains much room for improvement in risk factors management, particularly for hypertension, smoking and adiposity status, and a need for an intervention. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; ••: ••-••. © 2017 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  1. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

  2. Determining population trends and conservation status of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puigcerver, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the conservation status and population trends of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix from 1900 to the present. Data are sometimes contradictory with regard to the status of this species as it has some features that make it difficult to produce reliable population estimates. Recent data clearly suggest, either at a local scale or at a trans–national scale, that the Atlantic common quail populations have remained stable in the last two decades, and that restocking practices with farm–reared quails (hybrids with the Japanese quail, Coturnix japonica do not affect our estimates. The complex movement patterns showed by this species require special attention. Analysis of ring recoveries can give important information, especially about the nomadic movement of quails in search of suitable habitats after the destruction of winter cereal crops due to harvesting. Thus, when developing a breeding distribution model for this species, continuously updated information on seasonal habitat and weather must be included for optimal prediction. Including fortnightly data of vegetation indices in distribution models, for example, has shown good results. Obtaining reliable predictions about changes in species distribution and movements during the breeding period could provide useful knowledge about the conservation status and population trends and would help in the design of future management measures.

  3. Maturation trends in red deer females over 39 years in harvested populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysterud, Atle; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Langvatn, Rolf

    2009-05-01

    1. There is increasing awareness that heavy harvesting can lead to rapid evolution towards earlier sexual maturation. With increased harvest pressure, individuals that begin reproduction at light weights have a greater chance of reproducing at least once compared with individuals that begin reproduction at heavier weights and hence later in life. Although well documented in fish, this has not been empirically tested for harvested populations of mammals in terrestrial ecosystems differing in many environmental aspects. 2. Using data from 3856 female red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) from three harvested populations, we tested whether red deer maturity changed from 1967 to 2006. In these populations, density has increased markedly over the time period reducing body mass of deer, which has decreased the proportion of females maturing as yearlings. We therefore assessed trends in maturation as yearlings after controlling for body mass. Long-lived iteroparous ungulate females are expected to have a prudent life history not risking their future survival and reproduction under harsh conditions (e.g. at high density). An alternative to the harvest-induced evolution hypothesis is that maturation is driven mainly by phenotypic responses to increased density, and we predicted later maturation even after controlling for the reduction in body mass. 3. There was a marked trend towards later age at maturation in one out of three populations (after controlling for the effect of reduced body mass due to increased density), while there was no marked trend in the two other populations. The harvesting-induced evolution hypothesis was therefore not supported. However, although the decline was predicted from the prudent life-history tactic hypothesis, the estimate for the density effect was positive rather than negative after accounting for the year trend. Although we did not find support for the harvest-induced earlier maturation hypothesis, evidence was not clearly in favour of the

  4. Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

    2017-01-01

    Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

  5. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Research in wildlife conservation and management often affects decisions made by managers. Improving understanding through applied research is key to advancing the ability to manage birds and other organism sefficiently. Indeed, many papers from EURING 2003 and previous EURING meetings describe research on problems of pressing management concern. In this session, we focus on a subset of studies in which modeling and statistical estimation is explicitly connected to management decision-making. In these decision–centric studies, data are gathered and models are constructed with the explicit intention of using the resulting information to inform decisions about conservation. Whereas ecological models often produce information of value to decision makers, decision models explicitly include two additional features. First, management options are modeled via decision variables that link to system attributes that are directly responsive to management actions, such as harvest and habitat management. Second, certain outcomes are assigned value, via an objective or utility function. Both of these features involve factors beyond the usual consideration of ecological modeling; the first implies the presence of one or more “decision makers”, and the second characterizes the societal preferences of each possible outcome resulting from a prospective decision. Our plenary paper, by Tim Haas (Haas, 2004, ventures the furthest into the realm of human behavior and societal processes by modeling the political context for conservation of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus in Africa. Haas shows that scientific information (e.g., population monitoring and population viability analyses reaches decision makers through multiple pathways, each of which can modify or reinterpret the information signal. A predictive understanding of the country’s political as well as ecological processes is essential. Hass uses a system of interacting ecological and political

  6. Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Van Haverbeke, D. R.; Ward, D.; Johnstone, H.C.

    2006-01-01

    The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

  7. Trends in Snag Populations in Drought-Stressed Mixed-Conifer and Ponderosa Pine Forests (1997–2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph L. Ganey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density increased by 75 and 90% in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, respectively, over this time period. Increased snag density was driven primarily by a large pulse in drought-mediated tree mortality from 2002 to 2007, following a smaller pulse from 1997 to 2002. Decay-class composition and size-class composition of snag populations changed in both forest types, and species composition changed in mixed-conifer forest. Increases in snag abundance may benefit some species of native wildlife in the short-term by providing increased foraging and nesting resources, but these increases may be unsustainable in the long term. Observed changes in snag recruitment and fall rates during the study illustrate the difficulty involved in modeling dynamics of those populations in an era of climate change and changing land management practices.

  8. Groundwater resources monitoring and population displacement in northern Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalikakis, K.; Hammache, Y.; Nawa, A.; Slinski, K.; Petropoulos, G.; Muteesasira, A.

    2009-04-01

    Northern Uganda has been devastated by more than 20 years of open conflict by the LRA (Lord's Resistance Army) and the Government of Uganda. This war has been marked by extreme violence against civilians, who had been gathered in protected IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps. At the height of the displacement in 2007, the UN office for coordination of humanitarian affairs, estimated that nearly 2.5 million people were interned into approximately 220 camps throughout Northern Uganda. With the improved security since mid-2006, the people displaced by the conflict in Northern Uganda started to move out of the overcrowded camps and return either to their villages/parishes of origin or to resettlement/transit sites. However, basic water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure in the return areas or any new settlements sites are minimal. People returning to their villages of origin encounter a situation where in many cases there is no access to safe water. Since 1998 ACF (Action Against Hunger, part of the Action Contre la Faim International Network) activities have been concentrated in the Acholi and Lango regions of Northern Uganda. ACF's WASH (Water, sanitation and hygiene) department interventions concern sanitation infrastructure, hygiene education and promotion as well as water points implementation. To ensure safe water access, actions are focused in borehole construction and traditional spring rehabilitation, also called "protected" springs. These activities follow the guidelines as set forth by the international WASH cluster, led by UNICEF. A three year project (2008-2010) is being implemented by ACF, to monitor the available groundwater resources in Northern Uganda. The main objectives are: 1. to monitor the groundwater quality from existing water points during different hydrological seasons, 2. to identify, if any, potential risks of contamination from population concentrations and displacement, lack of basic infrastructure and land use, and finally 3. to

  9. Modeling Growth Trend and Forecasting Techniques for Vehicular Population in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kartikeya Jha

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting and estimation of growth in vehicular population is a sine qua non of any major transportation engineering development, requires capturing the past trend and using it to predict the future trend based on qualified assumptions, simulations and models created using explanatory variables. This work attempts to review the in vogue approaches and investigate a more contemporary approach, the Time Series (TS Analysis. Three fundamentally different methods were explored and results from each of these analyses were collated to check for respective levels of accuracy in predicting vehicular population for the same target year. Within the scope of this study and estimation, results obtained from TS Analysis were found to be considerably more accurate than those from Trend Line Analysis and observably better than those from Econometric Analysis. To reinforce these observations and inferences drawn, a second set of analysis was done on more recent input by using AADT data from PeMS, California. Inter alia this was carried out to contrast any statistical improvement observed when doing TS analysis with rich and accurate data. With all the data sets used and locations analyzed for forecasting, the Time Series analysis technique was invariably found to be a potent tool for forecasting.

  10. Agricultural Set-aside Programs and Grassland Birds: Insights from Broad-scale Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Riffell

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP is a voluntary set-aside program in the United States designed to amelioratesoil erosion, control crop overproduction, enhance water quality, and provide wildlife habitat by replacing crops with other forms of land cover. Because CRP includes primarily grass habitats, it has great potential to benefitdeclining North American grassland bird populations. We looked at the change in national and state population trends of grassland birds and related changes to cover-specific CRP variables (previous research grouped all CRP practices. Changes in national trends after the initiation of the CRP were inconclusive, but we observed signficant bird-CRP relations at the state level. Most bird-CRP relations were positive, except for some species associated with habitats that CRP replaced. Practice- and configuration-specific CRP variables were related to grassland bird trends, rather than a generic measure of all CRP types combined. Considering all CRP land as a single, distinct habitat type may obscure actual relations between birds and set-aside characteristics. Understanding and predictingthe effects of set-aside programs (like CRP or agri-environment schemes on grassland birds is complex and difficult. Because available broad-scale datasets are less than adequate, studies should be conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

  11. Heritabilities and genetic trends for reproductive traits in a population of Romosinuano cattle in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Vergara G.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this study was to estimate heritabilities and genetic trends for reproductive traits in a beef cattle population Romosinuano. Material and methods. Age at first calving (AFC, first calving interval (FCI, and second calving interval (SCI were evaluated from a database generated from 1951 to 2011 by Research Center Turipana. Unicaracter animal model was used, which included fixed of contemporary group (year-season, random direct genetic additives effects and residual. Estimates of variance components and genetic parameters were obtained through Restricted Maximum Likelihood procedure, using AIREMLF90 program. Genetic trends were calculated as a linear regression of weighted averages of breeding values over the years, using the REG procedure of Statistical Analysis System. Results. The indices of heritability for additive genetic effects were 0.04 ± 0.05 for AFC, 0.06 ± 0.06 for FCI, and 0.09 ± 0.06 for SCI. Conclusions. Low heritabilities indicating that should improve nutritional and management conditions in the herd, so that they can better express the traits evaluated. The estimated genetic trends were near zero, which shows that the objective of the CI Turipaná regarding this population has complied fully preserving the genetic variability of the breed Romosinuano.

  12. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

  13. Long-term trends in the use of a protected area by small cetaceans in relation to changes in population status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Cheney

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The requirement to monitor listed species in European designated sites is challenging for long-lived mobile species that only temporarily occupy protected areas. We use a 21 year time series of bottlenose dolphin photo-identification data to assess trends in abundance and conservation status within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC in Scotland. Mark–recapture methods were used to estimate annual abundance within the SAC from 1990 to 2010. A Bayesian mark–recapture model with a state-space approach was used to estimate overall population trends using data collected across the populations’ range. Despite inter-annual variability in the number of dolphins within the SAC, there was a >99% probability that the wider population was stable or increasing. Results indicate that use of the SAC by the wider population has declined. This is the first evidence of long-term trends in the use of an EU protected area by small cetaceans in relation to changes in overall population status. Our results highlight the importance of adapting the survey protocols used in long-term photo-identification studies to maintain high capture probabilities and minimise sampling heterogeneity. Crucially, these data demonstrate the value of collecting data from the wider population to assess the success of protected areas designated for mobile predators.

  14. Population trends and migration strategy of the Wood Sandpiper Tringa glareola at Ottenby, SE Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwajomo, Soladoye Babatola; Stervander, Martin; Helseth, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Long-term ringing data are useful for understanding population trends and migration strategies adopted by migratory bird species during migration. To investigate the patterns in demography, phenology of migration and stopover behaviour in Wood Sandpipers Tringa glareola trapped on autumn migration...... at Ottenby, southeast Sweden, in 1947-2011, we analysed 65 years of autumn ringing data to describe age-specific trends in annual trappings, morphometrics and phenology, as well as fuel deposition rates and stopover duration from recapture data. We also analysed the migratory direction of the species from...... deposition rates of 2.5 and 0.7 g day-1 respectively. Juvenile birds probably vary their strategy according to time of season and prevailing conditions. Both adults and juveniles followed the Mediterranean Flyway, but juveniles displayed significantly more southerly and significantly more scattered migratory...

  15. Monitoring temporal trends of air pollution in an urban area using mosses and lichens as biomonitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerdol, Renato; Marchesini, Roberta; Iacumin, Paola; Brancaleoni, Lisa

    2014-08-01

    Monitoring air quality by using living organisms as biomonitors has received increasing attention in recent years. However, rather few studies were based on the concomitant use of passive biomonitoring (based on the different sensitivity of living organisms to air pollution) and active biomonitoring (based on their capacity to accumulate pollutants in the tissues). We carried out a repeated survey of an urban area in Northern Italy, with the objective of comparing temporal trends of different kinds of air pollutants with bioindication (passive biomonitoring) and bioaccumulation (active biomonitoring) techniques. During a five-year interval, temporal patterns of moss metal concentrations underwent significant changes probably due to intercurring variations in the importance of different pollution sources. Nitrogen (N) concentration in moss tissues also decreased and was paralleled by increasing diversity of epiphytic lichens. Increasing δ(15)N in moss tissues suggested a higher contribution of oxidized N species compared with reduced N species.

  16. Improving the Navys Passive Underwater Acoustic Monitoring of Marine Mammal Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Monitoring of Marine Mammal Populations Gerald L. D’Spain Marine Physical Laboratory Scripps Institution of Oceanography 291 Rosecrans Street... mammal populations. A major focus in this project is on further enhancing the ability to estimate environmentally-calibrated calling density (calls per... mammal species using passive acoustic monitoring, with application to obtaining density estimates of transiting humpback whale populations in the

  17. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  18. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  19. An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

  20. Movements of radio-marked California Ridgway's rails during monitoring surveys: implications for population monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Thuy-Vy D.; Takekawa, John Y.; Overton, Cory T.; Schultz, Emily R.; Hull, Joshua M.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2015-01-01

    The California Ridgway's rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus (hereafter California rail) is a secretive marsh bird endemic to tidal marshes in the San Francisco Bay (hereafter bay) of California. The California rail has undergone significant range contraction and population declines due to a variety of factors, including predation and the degradation and loss of habitat. Call-count surveys, which include call playbacks, based on the standardized North American marsh bird monitoring protocol have been conducted throughout the bay since 2005 to monitor population size and distribution of the California rail. However, call-count surveys are difficult to evaluate for efficacy or accuracy. To measure the accuracy of call-count surveys and investigate whether radio-marked California rails moved in response to call-count surveys, we compared locations of radio-marked California rails collected at frequent intervals (15 min) to California rail detections recorded during call-count surveys conducted over the same time periods. Overall, 60% of radio-marked California rails within 200 m of observers were not detected during call-count surveys. Movements of radio-marked California rails showed no directional bias (P = 0.92) irrespective of whether or not playbacks of five marsh bird species (including the California rail) were broadcast from listening stations. Our findings suggest that playbacks of rail vocalizations do not consistently influence California rail movements during surveys. However, call-count surveys may underestimate California rail presence; therefore, caution should be used when relating raw numbers of call-count detections to population abundance.

  1. Trends in cancer in the elderly population in Denmark, 1980-2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewertz, Marianne; Christensen, Kaare; Engholm, Gerda

    2016-01-01

    Background Age is the strongest risk factor for developing cancer. The aim of the present analysis is to give an overview of the trends in cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, and relative survival in Denmark from 1980 to 2012 focusing on age, comparing persons aged 70 years or more with thos...... among those aged 90 years or more. Conclusion An increase in elderly cancer patients is expected over the coming 20 years due to an increasing elderly population. Healthcare providers need to focus on developing specific strategies for treatment of elderly cancer patients in the future....

  2. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J. [US Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, Anchorage, AK (United States); McDonald, Lyman L. [West Inc., Cheyenne, WY (United States)

    2001-04-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  3. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Francesca C [Editor; Benson, Jody [Editor; Hanson, Stephanie [Editor; Mark, Carol [Editor; Wetovsky, Marvin A [Editor

    2004-09-21

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  4. Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

    2017-08-10

    Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial

  5. Capitalism and population in Latin American agriculture: recent trends and problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miro, C A; Rodriguez, D

    1982-04-01

    "On the basis of a body of empirical research, the authors explore the relationship between agrarian structure and population [in Latin America]. After an introduction in which they present their theoretical and methodological orientation, they describe the current changing trends in agrarian structure, among which are the 'intensification' of the process of the penetration of capitalistic forms into agriculture." They then discuss the relationships between agrarian structure and demographic variables, particularly fertility and migration. In the final section, some guidelines for future research are presented. This paper is a revised version of an evaluation study carried out to assess the contributions of 14 research projects financed by the Programme of Social Research on Population in Latin America (PISPAL). excerpt

  6. Microcystins and cyanobacteria trends in a 14 year monitoring of a temperate eutrophic reservoir (Aguieira, Portugal).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Vitor; Morais, João; Vale, Micaela

    2011-03-01

    A monitoring program of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in the framework of the surveillance of the Water Treatment Plant efficiency of the municipality of Santa Comba Dão (Portugal) was conducted from 1994 until 2007. With these data we aimed to answer the question, are MCs produced evenly over the years in a single water body? Samples were taken by the local health authorities in the site of the Water treatment plant and analyzed for total phytoplankton, cyanobacteria and the hepatotoxic cyanotoxins microcystins (MCs). Apart from 1999 and 2000, cyanobacteria represented a high proportion of total phytoplankton, attaining during several months of the year more than 90% of total phytoplankton density. A total of 24 cyanobacteria species were identified and Microcystis aeruginosa, Anabaena flos-aquae and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae were the main potentially toxic cyanobacteria species present throughout the period. MC concentration varied between 0.3 µg MC-LR eq l⁻¹ in October 98 and 87.0 µg MC-LR eq l⁻¹ in September 2001. The evolution of the average cell quota does not reveal any especial trend, although in 2001 the quota was the highest but not significantly different from the other years. The threshold limit of 5000 cells per ml of Microcystis aeruginosa should be taken into consideration in monitoring programs because the 10,000 cells per ml proposed by several other national programs might not be enough to prevent human health risks. Due to high annual variation in MC cell quota, monitoring programs of cyanobacteria and MC should be extended in time, since short term studies do not provide us the data needed for a safe management of a water body used for human purposes.

  7. Population trends of the mancos saltbrush, proatriplex pleiantha from 1991 to 1995, Navajo Mine, Northwest New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyder, D.; Buchanan, B.A. [Buchanan Consultants, Ltd., Farmington, NM (United States); Estrada, O.J. [Navajo Mine, Fruitland, NM (United States)] [and others

    1995-09-01

    The Mancos Saltbrush, Proatriplex pleiantha is of concern of Navajo Mine, BHP Minerals due to its potential status as a threatened plant species. The occurrence of this plant within its natural range however, is strongly influenced by climatic conditions in the Spring. Seeds may remain viable in the soil for up to 10 years, thereby avoiding unfavorable years. Documentation of the plants occurrence and population trends at seven permanent monitoring sites were recorded by Marron Tasheck Knight, Inc. in 1991 and 1992 and by Buchanan Consultants, Ltd. in May 1993 and 1994. Six of the sites are located just outside the Navajo Mine lease boundaries and the seventh site in the Four Couners Region of New Mexico just south of the Colorado border. Results to date show a general decrease in P. pleiantha site size, number of plants at the site, plant size and plant density. There were no plants observed at any of the sites in 1994. Population data collected at sites in 1991, 1993 and 1994 show a decrease from 1992. These decreases are most likely due to unfavorable climatic conditions during the period of seed germination in 1991, 1993, and 1994. Climate during the Spring of 1993 and 1994 was dry and warm compared to wet, warm conditions in 1992 and to a lesser degree in 1991. A cool, wet spring climate appears to favor P. pleiantha germination.

  8. Status and Trends of the Grand Canyon Population of Humpback Chub

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Matthew E.

    2009-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin supports one of the most distinctive fish communities in North America, including the federally endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). One of only six remaining populations of this fish is found in Grand Canyon, Arizona. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators are responsible for monitoring the Grand Canyon population. Analysis of recently collected data indicates that the number of Grand Canyon adult humpback chub - fish 4 years old and older and capable of reproduction - increased approximately 50 percent between 2001 and 2008. When possible model error is considered, the estimated number of adult chub in the Grand Canyon population is between 6,000 and 10,000. The most likely number is estimated at 7,650 individuals.

  9. Trends in adherence to recommended cancer screening: The US population and working cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainya C. Clarke

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past decade the United States has seen a decrease in advanced cancer diagnoses. There has also been an increase in the number of cancer survivors returning to work. Cancer screening behaviors among survivors may play an important role in their return-to-work process. Adherence to a post-treatment cancer screening protocol increases early detection of secondary tumors and reduces potentially limiting side-effects. We compared screening trends among all cancer survivors, working survivors, and the general population over the last decade.Methods: Trends in adherence to recommended screening were analyzed by site-specific cancer. We used the Healthy People goals as a measure of desired adherence. We selected participants 18+ years from 1997 to 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS for years where detailed cancer screening information was available. Using the recommendations of the American Cancer Society as a guide, we assessed adherence to cancer screening across the decade. There were 174,393 participants. Analyses included 7,528 working cancer survivors representing 3.8 million US workers, and 119,374 adults representing more than 100 million working Americans with no cancer history.Results: The US population met the Healthy People 2010 goal for colorectal screening, but declined in all other recommended cancer screening. Cancer survivors met and maintained the HP2010 goal for all, except cervical cancer screening. Survivors had higher screening rates than the general population. Among survivors, white-collar and service occupations had higher screening rates than blue-collar survivors.Conclusions: Cancer survivors report higher screening rates than the general population. Nevertheless, national screening rates are lower than desired, and disparities exist by cancer history and occupation. Understanding existing disparities, and the impact of cancer screening on survivors is crucial as the number of working survivors

  10. Effect of Energy Under-Reporting on Secular Trends of Dietary Patterns in a Mediterranean Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funtikova, Anna N.; Gomez, Santiago F.; Fitó, Montserrat; Elosua, Roberto; Benítez-Arciniega, Alejandra A.; Schröder, Helmut

    2015-01-01

    Background Diet is an important factor in the prevention of chronic diseases. Analysis of secular trends of dietary patterns can be biased by energy under-reporting. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to analyse the impact of energy under-reporting on dietary patterns and secular trends in dietary patterns defined by cluster analysis. Design and methods Two cross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in Spain, in 2000 and 2005, with 3058 and 6352 participants, respectively, aged 25 to 74 years. Validated questionnaire was used to collect dietary data. Cluster analysis was run separately for all participants, plausible energy reporters (PER), and energy under-reporters (EUR) to define dietary patterns. Results Three clusters, “healthy”, “mixed” and “western”, were identified for both surveys. The “mixed” cluster was the predominant cluster in both surveys. Excluding EUR reduced the proportion of the “mixed” cluster up to 6.40% in the 2000 survey; this caused secular trend increase in the prevalence of the “mixed” pattern. Cross-classification analysis of all participants and PER’ data showed substantial agreement in cluster assignments: 68.7% in 2000 and 84.4% in 2005. Excluding EUR did not cause meaningful (≥15%) changes in the “healthy” pattern. It provoked changes in consumption of some food groups in the “mixed” and “western” patterns: mainly decreases of unhealthy foods within the 2000 and increases of unhealthy foods within the 2005 surveys. Secular trend effects of EUR were similar to those within the 2005 survey. Excluding EUR reversed the direction of secular trends in consumption of several food groups in PER in the “mixed” and “western” patterns. Conclusions EUR affected distribution of participants between dietary patterns within and between surveys, secular trends in food group consumption and amount of food consumed in all, but not in the “healthy” pattern. Our findings

  11. The farming population in Ireland: mortality trends during the 'Celtic Tiger' years.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Smyth, Breda

    2012-03-21

    Background Although the Irish farming population is a significant occupational group, analysis of their mortality patterns is limited. This study compared mortality trends with other occupational groups and assessed the impact of socio-economic factors. Methods Population and mortality data (2000-06) were obtained to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) by cause of death and matched with socio-economic data. The extent to which variation in mortality was explained by variations in the socio-economic data was determined using multiple regression. Results Farmers and agricultural workers experienced the highest levels of mortality for all causes of death (2000-06). Farmers are 5.14 times more likely and agricultural workers are 7.35 times more likely to die from any cause of death than the lowest risk group. Circulatory disease is a significant cause of mortality among farmers [SMR = 215.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 201.83-229.98]. Other significant causes include cancers (SMR = 156.60, CI = 146.73-166.48) and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 149.69, CI = 135.44-163.93). Agricultural workers have similar mortality trends: circulatory disease (SMR = 226.27; CI = 192.45-260.08), cancers (SMR = 221.44; CI = 193.88-249.00), and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 353.90; CI = 302.48-405.32). From 2000 to 2006, SMRs increased incrementally. Multiple regression identified farm size and income poverty risk as predictors of mortality. Conclusion Irish farmers and agricultural workers have experienced a reversal of mortality trends compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Policies should target them as a high-risk group.

  12. Trends in notifiable infectious diseases in China: implications for surveillance and population health policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyse trends in notifiable infectious diseases in China, in their historical context. Both English and Chinese literature was searched and diseases were categorised according to the type of disease or transmission route. Temporal trends of morbidity and mortality rates were calculated for eight major infectious diseases types. Strong government commitment to public health responses and improvements in quality of life has led to the eradication or containment of a wide range of infectious diseases in China. The overall infectious diseases burden experienced a dramatic drop during 1975-1995, but since then, it reverted and maintained a gradual upward trend to date. Most notifiable diseases are contained at a low endemic level; however, local small-scale outbreaks remain common. Tuberculosis, as a bacterial infection, has re-emerged since the 1990s and has become prevalent in the country. Sexually transmitted infections are in a rapid, exponential growth phase, spreading from core groups to the general population. Together human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, they account for 39% of all death cases due to infectious diseases in China in 2008. Zoonotic infections, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, rabies and influenza, pose constant threats to Chinese residents and remain the most deadly disease type among the infected individuals. Therefore, second-generation surveillance of behavioural risks or vectors associated with pathogen transmission should be scaled up. It is necessary to implement public health interventions that target HIV and relevant coinfections, address transmission associated with highly mobile populations, and reduce the risk of cross-species transmission of zoonotic pathogens.

  13. Data mining for wearable sensors in health monitoring systems: a review of recent trends and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banaee, Hadi; Ahmed, Mobyen Uddin; Loutfi, Amy

    2013-12-17

    The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  14. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Banaee

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  15. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banaee, Hadi; Ahmed, Mobyen Uddin; Loutfi, Amy

    2013-01-01

    The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems. PMID:24351646

  16. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skjærven Rolv

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. Methods We studied all live births and stillbirths (≥ 28 weeks gestation registered in the medical birth registers in Sweden, Denmark and Norway from 1995 through 2004. Gestational age was determined by best estimate. A reference population of pregnant women was designed using the following criteria: 1 maternal age 20–35, 2 primiparity, 3 spontaneously conceived pregnancy, 4 singleton pregnancy and 5 mother born in the respective country. National preterm delivery rate, preterm delivery rate in the reference population and rate of spontaneous preterm delivery in the reference population were calculated for each country. Results The total national preterm delivery rate ( Conclusion Reference populations can facilitate overview and thereby explanations for changing preterm delivery rates. The model also permits comparisons over time. This model may in its simplicity prove to be a valuable supplement to assessments of national preterm delivery rates for public health surveillance.

  17. The 6dF Galaxy Survey: Stellar Population Trends Across and Through the Fundamental Plane

    CERN Document Server

    Springob, Christopher M; Proctor, Rob; Colless, Matthew; Jones, D Heath; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Campbell, Lachlan; Lucey, John; Mould, Jeremy

    2011-01-01

    We present results from an analysis of stellar population parameters for 7132 galaxies in the 6dFGS Fundamental Plane (FP) sample. We bin the galaxies along the axes, $v_1$, $v_2$, and $v_3$, of the tri-variate Gaussian to which we have fit the galaxy distribution in effective radius, surface brightness, and central velocity dispersion (FP space), and compute median values of stellar age, [Fe/H], [Z/H], and [$\\alpha$/Fe]. We determine the directions of the vectors in FP space along which each of the binned stellar population parameters vary most strongly. In contrast to previous work, we find stellar population trends not just with velocity dispersion and FP residual, but with radius and surface brightness as well. The most remarkable finding is that the stellar population parameters vary through the plane ($v_1$ direction) and across the plane ($v_3$ direction), but show no variation at all along the plane ($v_2$ direction). The $v_2$ direction in FP space roughly corresponds to `luminosity density'. We inte...

  18. Dworshak Reservoir Kokanee Population Monitoring, Annual Report 2001.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiolie, Melo; Stark, Eric

    2003-03-01

    Onsite testing of strobe lights was conducted to determine if they repelled kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka away from the turbine intakes at Dworshak Dam. We tested a set of nine strobe lights flashing at a rate of 360 flashes/min placed near the intake of a 90 mW turbine. A split-beam echo sounder was used to determine the effect of strobe light operation on fish density (thought to be mostly kokanee) in front of the turbine intakes. On five nights between December 2001 and January 2002, fish density averaged 110 fish/ha when no lights were flashing. Mean density dropped to 13 fish/ha when the strobe lights were turned on during five additional nights of sampling. This 88% decline in density was significant at the P = 0.009 level of significance based on a paired Student's t test. There appeared to be no tendency for fish to habituate to the lights during the night. Test results indicate that a single set of nine lights may be sufficient to repel kokanee from a turbine intake during the night. We also used split-beam hydroacoustics to monitor the kokanee population in Dworshak Reservoir during 2001. Estimated abundance of kokanee has continued to increase since the spring of 1996 when high entrainment losses occurred. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 3,276,000 kokanee in Dworshak Reservoir in early July 2001. This included 2,069,000 age-0 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 16.4%), 801,000 age-1 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 17.8%), and 406,000 age-2 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 20.5%). Entrainment sampling was also conducted with split-beam hydroacoustics a minimum of one continuous 24 h period per month. The highest entrainment rates occurred at night with lower discharges and shallower intake depths. Fish movement patterns suggested that they swam 'at will' in front of the intakes and may have chosen to move into the turbine intakes. Based on monthly hydroacoustic sampling in the forebay, we found that kokanee density was low in July and August during a period of high

  19. Trends in suicidal behaviour and use of mental health services in Canadian military and civilian populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sareen, Jitender; Afifi, Tracie O.; Taillieu, Tamara; Cheung, Kristene; Turner, Sarah; Bolton, Shay-Lee; Erickson, Julie; Stein, Murray B.; Fikretoglu, Deniz; Zamorski, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    Background: In the context of the Canadian mission in Afghanistan, substantial media attention has been placed on mental health and lack of access to treatment among Canadian Forces personnel. We compared trends in the prevalence of suicidal behaviour and the use of mental health services between Canadian military personnel and the general population from 2002 to 2012/13. Methods: We obtained data for respondents aged 18–60 years who participated in 4 nationally representative surveys by Statistics Canada designed to permit comparisons between populations and trends over time. Surveys of the general population were conducted in 2002 (n = 25 643) and 2012 (n = 15 981); those of military personnel were conducted in 2002 (n = 5153) and 2013 (n = 6700). We assessed the lifetime and past-year prevalence of suicidal ideation, plans and attempts, as well as use of mental health services. Results: In 2012/13, but not in 2002, military personnel had significantly higher odds of both lifetime and past-year suicidal ideation than the civilian population (lifetime: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17–1.50; past year: adjusted OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.09–1.66). The same was true for suicidal plans (lifetime: adjusted OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.35–1.99; past year: adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.18–2.33). Among respondents who reported past-year suicidal ideation, those in the military had a significantly higher past-year utilization rate of mental health services than those in the civilian population in both 2002 (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.31–3.13) and 2012/13 (adjusted OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.86–5.28). Interpretation: Canadian Forces personnel had a higher prevalence of suicidal ideation and plans in 2012/13 and a higher use of mental health services in 2002 and 2012/13 than the civilian population. PMID:27221270

  20. Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in arctic air: 20 years of monitoring under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hayley; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios A; Brorström-Lundén, Eva; Olafsdottir, Kristin; Aas, Wenche; Breivik, Knut; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Sigurdsson, Arni; Hakola, Hannele; Bossi, Rossana; Skov, Henrik; Sverko, Ed; Barresi, Enzo; Fellin, Phil; Wilson, Simon

    2016-10-01

    Temporal trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) measured in Arctic air are essential in understanding long-range transport to remote regions and to evaluate the effectiveness of national and international chemical control initiatives, such as the Stockholm Convention (SC) on POPs. Long-term air monitoring of POPs is conducted under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) at four Arctic stations: Alert, Canada; Stórhöfði, Iceland; Zeppelin, Svalbard; and Pallas, Finland, since the 1990s using high volume air samplers. Temporal trends observed for POPs in Arctic air are summarized in this study. Most POPs listed for control under the SC, e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and chlordanes, are declining slowly in Arctic air, reflecting the reduction of primary emissions during the last two decades and increasing importance of secondary emissions. Slow declining trends also signifies their persistence and slow degradation under the Arctic environment, such that they are still detectable after being banned for decades in many countries. Some POPs, e.g. hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and lighter PCBs, showed increasing trends at specific locations, which may be attributable to warming in the region and continued primary emissions at source. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) do not decline in air at Canada's Alert station but are declining in European Arctic air, which may be due to influence of local sources at Alert and the much higher historical usage of PBDEs in North America. Arctic air samples are screened for chemicals of emerging concern to provide information regarding their environmental persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP), which are important criteria for classification as a POP under SC. The AMAP network provides consistent and comparable air monitoring data of POPs for trend development and acts as a bridge between national monitoring programs and SC's Global Monitoring

  1. Black Tern Population Survey and other Marsh Bird Monitoring Activities in Vermont 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report looks at marsh bird population trends within the marshes of Vermont, and investigates the effect of water level and marsh vegetation changes on marsh...

  2. Black Tern Population Survey and other Marsh Bird Monitoring Activities in Vermont 2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report looks at marsh bird population trends within the marshes of Vermont, and investigates the effect of water level and marsh vegetation changes on marsh...

  3. Black Tern Population Survey and other Marsh Bird Monitoring Activities in Vermont 2005

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report looks at marsh bird population trends within the marshes of Vermont, and investigates the effect of water level and marsh vegetation changes on marsh...

  4. Black Tern Population Survey and other Marsh Bird Monitoring Activities in Vermont 2002

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report takes a look at marsh bird population trends within the marshes of Vermont, and investigates the effect of water level and marsh vegetation changes on...

  5. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Lawrence

    Full Text Available Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  6. On the system of monitoring ambient air quality in relation to the health of the population of the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmarova, H. [National Inst. of Public Health, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1995-12-31

    In 1991 the Government of the Czech republic in Ruling No 369 approved a draft of a system for monitoring the health of the population in relation to the environment on the basis of a need to obtain purposefully targeted information for an appropriate policy for the protection of health and the environment. The aim of monitoring does not and cannot consist of determining the cause and effect relationship between the health status and pollutants. The system of monitoring is an open and comprehensive system of the continual collection, processing and evaluation of data concerned with the load on the organism and damage to human health in relation to environmental pollution. Air pollution and health are one of the six subsystems realised in the whole system (beside drinking water, noise, food, biomarkers, and demographic and health statistics). The aim of the monitoring is to obtain a data base that shall serve three main purposes: (1) Description of the status of health of the population and characteristics of the ambient air, (2) Evaluation of the trend of each index, (3) Assessment and evaluation of the risk to health of the parameters under study. Thirty cities and towns were selected in the Czech Republic for the realisation of the monitoring system. (author)

  7. Long-term occupancy trends in a data-poor dugong population in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elrika D'Souza

    Full Text Available Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50 years occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India. For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1, persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959-2004, n = 40 locations, and b systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010-2012, n = 57. Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18 over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1 protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2 monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3 reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4 engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting.

  8. Parental Monitoring and Adolescent Alcohol Risk in a Clinic Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Kenneth H.; Boyle, Jennifer R.; Boekeloo, Bradley O.

    2003-01-01

    Assessed the association between parental monitoring and adolescent alcohol risk. Surveys of adolescents in a managed care setting examined alcohol involvement and forms of parent influence. Frequent monitoring related to less likelihood of being engaged in a variety of alcohol risk behaviors or other risk situations. Choosing to share alcohol…

  9. Population income and longitudinal trends in living kidney donation in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Jagbir; Dong, Jianghu; Gill, John

    2015-01-01

    Living kidney donation is declining in the United States. We examined longitudinal trends in living donation as a function of median household income and donor relation to assess the effect of financial barriers on donation in a changing economic environment. The zip code-level median household income of all 71,882 living donors was determined by linkage to the 2000 US Census. Longitudinal changes in the rate of donation were determined in income quintiles between 1999 and 2004, when donations were increasing, and between 2005 and 2010, when donations were declining. Rates were adjusted for population differences in age, sex, race, and ESRD rate using multilevel linear regression models. Between 1999 and 2004, the rate of growth in living donation per million population was directly related to income, increasing progressively from the lowest to highest income quintile, with annualized changes of 0.55 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.14 to 1.05) for Q1 and 1.77 (95% CI, 0.66 to 2.77) for Q5 (Pincome with longitudinal changes also varied by donor relationship. In conclusion, changes in living donation in the past decade varied by median household income, resulting in increased disparities in donation between low- and high-income populations. These findings may inform public policies to support living donation during periods of economic volatility.

  10. Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

  11. Trends and Characteristics of Hospitalization for Heart Failure in a Population Setting From 2003 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Gassó, María Lucía; Hernando-Arizaleta, Lauro; Palomar-Rodríguez, Joaquín A; Soria-Arcos, Federico; Pascual-Figal, Domingo A

    2017-09-01

    Population-based studies in other countries have reported a reduction of standardized rates of hospitalization for heart failure (HF) but data from a well-defined population are lacking in Spain. All hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of HF between 2003 and 2013 were obtained from the Minimum Basic Data Set, which includes all hospitals in the Region of Murcia. Health care episodes were identified by the individual health card (27 158 episodes). For each year, we studied the following parameters: crude, age-standardized and sex-standardized hospitalization rates for HF, length of stay, mortality, clinical variables, and the Elixhauser index. Time trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Hospitalization rates increased by 76.7%, from 1.28‰ to 2.26‰ (crude) and 1.06‰ to 1.77‰ (standardized); the mean annual percentage of change (APC) was 8.2% until 2007 and was subsequently 1.9% (P 6 points increased by 2-fold. Length of stay and mortality were unchanged during the study period. Between 2003 and 2013, there was a sustained increase in standardized rates of hospitalization for HF, which affected persons ≥ 75 years and was associated with a rise in comorbidity. There is a need for strategies focused on this population. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Imamovic

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around −0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around −0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  13. Global dimming and urbanization: did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imamovic, Adel; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Global dimming refers to the decrease in surface solar radiation (SSR) observed from the 1960s to the 1980s at different measurement sites all around the world. It is under debate whether anthropogenic aerosols emitted from urban areas close to the measurement sites are mainly responsible for the dimming. In order to assess this urbanization impact on SSR, we use spatially explicit population density data of 0.08° resolution to construct population indices (PI) at 157 high data quality sites. Our study extends previous population-based studies by incorporating distance-weighting as a simple aerosol diffusion model. We measured urbanization in the surrounding of a site as the PI change form 1960 to 1990 and found no negative correlation with the corresponding SSR trends from 1964 to 1989 for the 92 sites in Europe and Japan. For the 39 sites in China the correlation coefficients are significant at the 5 % level and reach around -0.35, while for the 26 remaining Asian, mostly Russian sites the correlation coefficients reach around -0.55 at the 1 % significance level. Results are similar, when the absolute levels of PIs are taken as an indicator for urbanization. Our findings call into question the existence of an urbanization effect for the sites in Europe and Japan, while such an effect cannot be ruled out for the sites in Asia, especially in Russia.

  14. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  15. Sequential change detection and monitoring of temporal trends in random-effects meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogo, Samson Henry; Clark, Allan; Kulinskaya, Elena

    2016-12-08

    Temporal changes in magnitude of effect sizes reported in many areas of research are a threat to the credibility of the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. Numerous sequential methods for meta-analysis have been proposed to detect changes and monitor trends in effect sizes so that meta-analysis can be updated when necessary and interpreted based on the time it was conducted. The difficulties of sequential meta-analysis under the random-effects model are caused by dependencies in increments introduced by the estimation of the heterogeneity parameter τ(2) . In this paper, we propose the use of a retrospective cumulative sum (CUSUM)-type test with bootstrap critical values. This method allows retrospective analysis of the past trajectory of cumulative effects in random-effects meta-analysis and its visualization on a chart similar to CUSUM chart. Simulation results show that the new method demonstrates good control of Type I error regardless of the number or size of the studies and the amount of heterogeneity. Application of the new method is illustrated on two examples of medical meta-analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Design of the National Trends Network for monitoring the chemistry of atmospheric precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, J.K.; Wilson, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    Long-term monitoring (10 years minimum) of the chemistry of wet deposition will be conducted at National Trends Network (NTN) sites across the United States. Precipitation samples will be collected at sites that represent broad regional characteristics. Design of the NTN considered four basic elements during construction of a model to distribute 50, 75, 100, 125 or 150 sites. The modeling oriented design was supplemented with guidance developed during the course of the site selection process. Ultimately, a network of 151 sites was proposed. The basic elements of the design are: (1) Assurance that all areas of the country are represented in the network on the basis of regional ecological properties (96 sites); (2) Placement of additional sites east of the Rocky Mountains to better define high deposition gradients (27 sites); (3) Placement of sites to assure that potentially sensitive regions are represented (15 sites); (4) Placement of sites to allow for other considerations, such as urban area effects (5 sites), intercomparison with Canada (3 sites), and apparent disparities in regional coverage (5 sites). Site selection stressed areas away from urban centers, large point sources, or ocean influences. Local factors, such as stable land ownership, nearby small emission sources (about 10 km), and close-by roads and fireplaces (about 0.5 km) were also considered. All proposed sites will be visited as part of the second phase of the study.

  17. Sequential change detection and monitoring of temporal trends in random‐effects meta‐analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogo, Samson Henry; Clark, Allan

    2016-01-01

    Temporal changes in magnitude of effect sizes reported in many areas of research are a threat to the credibility of the results and conclusions of meta‐analysis. Numerous sequential methods for meta‐analysis have been proposed to detect changes and monitor trends in effect sizes so that meta‐analysis can be updated when necessary and interpreted based on the time it was conducted. The difficulties of sequential meta‐analysis under the random‐effects model are caused by dependencies in increments introduced by the estimation of the heterogeneity parameter τ 2. In this paper, we propose the use of a retrospective cumulative sum (CUSUM)‐type test with bootstrap critical values. This method allows retrospective analysis of the past trajectory of cumulative effects in random‐effects meta‐analysis and its visualization on a chart similar to CUSUM chart. Simulation results show that the new method demonstrates good control of Type I error regardless of the number or size of the studies and the amount of heterogeneity. Application of the new method is illustrated on two examples of medical meta‐analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27933728

  18. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer needs. In this way, restaurateurs also contribute to greater customer satisfaction through quality service, which also has a positive effect on the restaurant and sales performance. Based on the results of the survey of 82 respondents, it was concluded that nutritional information shown within menus is of no importance, and also that such information does not affect the selection of dishes. Although nutritional information can be helpful in selecting more favourable and healthy food, neither men nor women care about it.

  19. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Baccus, William T.

    2016-11-30

    Executive SummaryWe estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey.We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount

  20. Testicular cancer trends as 'whistle blowers' of testicular developmental problems in populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skakkebaek, N E; Rajpert-De Meyts, Ewa; Jørgensen, N;

    2007-01-01

    in TGCC rates of a population may be 'whistle blowers' of other reproductive health problems. As cancer registries are often of excellent quality - in contrast to registries for congenital abnormalities - health authorities should consider an increase in TGCC as a warning that other reproductive health......Recently a worldwide rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer (TGCC) has been repeatedly reported. The changing disease pattern may signal that other testicular problems may also be increasing. We have reviewed recent research progress, in particular evidence gathered in the Nordic....../disorders of sex differentiation and male fertility problems may be symptoms with varying penetration. In spite of their fetal origin, most of the TDS symptoms, including TGCC and poor semen quality, can only be diagnosed in adulthood. Data from a Danish-Finnish research collaboration strongly suggest that trends...

  1. Central dark matter trends in early-type galaxies from strong lensing, dynamics and stellar populations

    CERN Document Server

    Tortora, C; Romanowsky, A J; Jetzer, Ph

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the correlations between central dark matter (DM) content of early-type galaxies and their sizes and ages, using a sample of intermediate-redshift (z ~ 0.2) gravitational lenses from the SLACS survey, and by comparing them to a larger sample of z ~ 0 galaxies. We decompose the deprojected galaxy masses into DM and stellar components using combinations of strong lensing, stellar dynamics, and stellar populations modeling. For a given stellar mass, we find that for galaxies with larger sizes, the DM fraction increases and the mean DM density decreases, consistently with the cuspy halos expected in cosmological formation scenarios. The DM fraction also decreases with stellar age, which can be partially explained by the inverse correlation between size and age. The residual trend may point to systematic dependencies on formation epoch of halo contraction or stellar initial mass functions. These results are in agreement with recent findings based on local galaxies by Napolitano, Romanowsky & Tortora...

  2. Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coggins,, Lewis G.

    2008-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations

  3. Diverging trends in recent population-based survival rates in oesophageal and gastric cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesper Lagergren

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Survival trends in oesophageal and gastric cancer need to be updated. A nationwide Swedish population-based study in 1961-2009 was based on registry data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative survival rate, i.e. the ratio of the observed to the expected survival, adjusted for age, sex, and calendar period, and presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI, was the main outcome measure. The expected survival was calculated using the corresponding Swedish general population with no exclusions. The relative survival rates in oesophageal and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma have improved since the 1990s (p for trend <0.001, but not in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma or gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma. The relative 5-year survival rates during the two recent periods 1990-1999 and 2000-2008 were 12.5% (95%CI 10.1%-14.9% and 10.3% (95%CI 8.5-12.0% for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, 12.5% (95%CI 10.1%-14.9% and 14.6% (95%CI 12.6-16.6% for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, 11.1% (95%CI 9.6%-12.6% and 14.3% (95%CI 12.3-16.3% for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, and 20.2% (95%CI 19.2%-21.1% and 19.0% (95%CI 17.7-20.2% for gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma. The 3-year survival in tumour stage III in 2004-2008 was about 25% for all four tumour types. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The survival in oesophageal and cardia adenocarcinoma is increasing, but the lack of such increase in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma is a concern.

  4. Trends in suicide in a Lithuanian urban population over the period 1984–2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virviciute Dalia

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Throughout the last decade of the twentieth century, Lithuania had the highest suicide rates in Europe among both men and women aged 25–64 years. The rates increased from 1986 until 1995, but later there was a slight decrease. This paper describes the trends in suicide deaths in urban population in Lithuania by gender, dates and suicide method over the period 1984–2003. Methods Data from the regional mortality register were used to analyze suicide deaths among all men and women aged 25–64 years in Kaunas city, Lithuania over the period 1984–2003. Age-standardized death rates per 100,000 persons (using European standard population were calculated by gender, suicide method and dates. A joinpoint regression method was used to estimate annual percentage changes (EPACs and to detect points where the trends changed significantly. Results The frequency of death by suicide among males was 48% higher in 1994–2003 than in 1984–1993. The corresponding increase among females was 28%. The most common methods of suicide among men were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (87.4% among all suicide deaths. The proportions of hanging, strangulation and suffocation in males increased by 6.9% – from 83.9% to 89.7% – compared to a 24.2% increase in deaths from handgun, rifle and shotgun firearm discharges and a 216.7% increase in deaths from poisoning with solvents, gases, pesticides and vapors. Among females, the most common methods of suicide were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (68.3% of all suicide deaths. The proportion of hanging deaths among females increased during the time period examined, whereas the proportion of poisonings with solid or liquid substances decreased. Conclusion Suicide rates increased significantly among urban men aged 25–64 years in Lithuania throughout the period 1984–2003, whereas among women an increasing but statistically insignificant trend was observed. There were changes in the

  5. MONITORING OF EXPOSURE RADIATION DOSES LOADS FROM MEDICAL EXPOSURE TO POPULATION OF THE KIROV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. N. Skolotnev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes medical exposure to population of the Kirov region during the period of 50 years (1961–2011 from the main types of X-ray procedures. Steady eduction trend of exposure levels to population with increase of X-ray surveys frequency has been found.

  6. Trends in dietary patterns of Latin American populations Tendencias en el consumo de alimentos en poblaciones latinoamericanas

    OpenAIRE

    Bermudez, Odilia I.; Tucker, Katherine L.

    2003-01-01

    It is important to characterize the level and magnitude of changes in food consumption patterns in Latin American populations as they undergo demographic and developmental transitions because of the effects of such changes on the development and progression of chronic diseases. This paper examines trends in food intake across regions in Latin America. Although trends in apparent food consumption differ in magnitude and timing, the overall patterns of change are remarkably consistent. Intakes ...

  7. Trends in Obesity and Abdominal Obesity in the Older Adult Population of Spain (2000-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Luis Gutiérrez-Fisac

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This work examines the trend in obesity and abdominal obesity in the Spanish population aged 60 years and over during the first decade of the 21st century. Methods: We analyze data from a representative study of the Spanish population aged 60 years and older conducted in 2000-2001 and from the Study on Nutrition and Cardiovascular Risk in Spain (ENRICA conducted in 2008-2010. Results: In men, the distribution of BMI did not vary in the period 2000-2010. In contrast, in women there was a reduction in both mean BMI - from 29.3 to 28.8 kg/m2 - and the prevalence of obesity - from 40.8 to 36.3%. This decline was greatest in women aged 60-69 years. In men, no significant changes were observed in mean waist circumference (WC or in the prevalence of abdominal obesity. In contrast, WC decreased by 3.6 cm and abdominal obesity prevalence by 12.7% in women. The decline was greatest in women aged 60-69 years, in whom mean WC decreased by 5.1 cm and abdominal obesity prevalence by 18.6%. Conclusion: These findings show that the frequency of obesity has begun to decline in Spanish women aged 60 and over. The causes of this decline are unclear.

  8. Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975–2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fukuaki Lee Kinoshita

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Monitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan. Methods: Cancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4% for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3% for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7% for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3% for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC and small cell carcinoma (SMC significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders. Conclusions: The incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

  9. Fifty-year trends in a box turtle population in Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, R.J.; Henry, P.F.P.; Bunck, C.M.

    1999-01-01

    A survey conducted in 1995 investigated long term declines reported in a population of box turtles Terrapene Carolina monitored each decade since 1945 in bottomland hardwood forest at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland. Methods duplicated past surveys in most respects, but were supplemented by radiotelemetry and a survey of dominant vegetation. Seventy different turtles were found on the 11.8 ha study area, a decline of >75% since peak populations were recorded in 1955. Searchers were less efficient in 1995 than in 1945-1975 for a variety of possible reasons. Among turtles recorded, approximately equal numbers persisted from each of the past five decades, with some individuals surviving >70 years. A sex ratio strongly favoring males was first recorded in 1975 and continued in 1995, but juveniles and subadults were found in greater proportion in 1995 than in any other survey. Six of nine radio-marked turtles left the bottomland study area and migrated to the adjoining bluffs to hibernate, suggesting more extensive movements and perhaps less stable home ranges than formerly thought. Age structure of trees indicated a gradual change to more shade-tolerant species. Examination of rates of change from survey data suggested that major losses probably resulted from changes in hydrology that exacerbated flooding in 1972, with recovery only beginning in 1995 and perhaps limited both by repeated flood events and successional changes in the forest. Slow recovery from losses may indicate that populations of the species would respond poorly to exploitation.

  10. Analysis of Chinese emissions trends of major halocarbons in monitoring the impacts of the Montreal Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Park, S.; Park, M.; Kim, J.; Muhle, J.; Fang, X.; Stohl, A.; Weiss, R. F.; Kim, K.

    2013-12-01

    nationwide effort for the Clean Development Mechanism project benefit of the Kyoto protocol. Emission rates of the halocarbons determined from the empirical emission strengths will certainly vary according to emission trend of our reference species, HCFC-22 in China from 2008 and 2012. Annual and average of HCFC-22 emissions from 2008 to 2012 will be calculated with an inverse method based on FLEXPART transport model. More detailed discussion on the emission rate estimation and its related caveats will be made in the presentation, but overall our analysis highlights the significance of long-term continuous monitoring for CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs in China to investigate impacts of Montreal Protocol regulations.

  11. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  12. Trends and correlates in meat consumption patterns in the US adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Youfa; Beydoun, May A; Caballero, Benjamin; Gary, Tiffany L; Lawrence, Robert

    2010-09-01

    Few studies have examined recent shifts in meat consumption (MC), differences among US population groups, and the influence of psychosocial-behavioural factors. Nationally representative data collected for US adults aged >or=18 years in the 1988-1994 and 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the 1994-1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) and Diet and Health Knowledge Survey (DHKS) were used. We found a U-shaped trend in MC, a decrease between 1988-1994 and 1994-1996, and an increase from 1994-1996 to 1999-2004. NHANES 1988-1994 and 1999-2004 indicate that MC did not change significantly, particularly for all meat, red meat, poultry and seafood. Between 1994-1996 and 1999-2004, average MC, including red meat, poultry, seafood and other meat products, increased in men. Women's total MC decreased, mainly due to decreased red meat and other meat products, except for increased seafood. Noticeable differences existed in the changes across population groups. Black men had the largest increase in consumption of total meat, poultry and seafood; Mexican American men had the smallest increase in poultry, seafood and other meat products. In 1999-2004, ethnic differences in MC became greater in women than among women in 1994-1996. Associations between MC and energy intake changed over time. Perceived benefit of dietary quality and food label use were associated with reduced red MC. Noticeable differences exist in the shifts in MC across population groups and surveys. MC increased in men but decreased in women in recent years.

  13. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette;

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body......, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  14. Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plentovich, S.; Morton, J.M.; Bart, J.; Camp, R.J.; Lusk, M.; Johnson, N.; VanderWerf, E.

    2005-01-01

    Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999-2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991-1993 and again during 1999-2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota's limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota's rare and endangered species. ?? BirdLife International 2005.

  15. Malheur NWR: Initial Survey Instructions for Bobolink Population Density Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Refuge bobolink population is the largest in Oregon and is also the westernmost significant breeding site for this species. The bobolink is a focal species for...

  16. Development of a North American survey for monitoring shorebird populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The purpose of this report is to investigate the feasibility of a survey for North American shorebird populations that will provide reliable annual indices to...

  17. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo G Tanadini

    Full Text Available Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size. The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the

  18. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  19. Improving outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy: a population-based, 12-year trend analysis of 7446 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brügger, Lukas; Rosella, Laura; Candinas, Daniel; Güller, Ulrich

    2011-02-01

    Laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis has become increasingly used over the past decade. The objective of this trend analysis is to assess whether clinical outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy have improved over the past 12 years. This analysis is based on the prospective database of the Swiss Association of Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery. All patients undergoing emergency laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis from 1995 to 2006 were included. The following outcomes were assessed for each of the 12 years: conversion rates, intraoperative complications, surgical postoperative complications, general postoperative complications, rate of reoperations, and length of hospital stay. Unadjusted and risk-adjusted multivariable analyses were performed. Statistical significance was set at a level of P trend)trend)trend)trend)trend)trend)trend analysis is the first one in the literature encompassing more than a decade and reporting clinical outcomes after laparoscopic appendectomy for acute appendicitis, which represents an important quality control.

  20. Psychostimulant prescribing trends in a paediatric population in Ireland: a national cohort study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boland, Fiona; Galvin, Rose; Reulbach, Udo; Motterlini, Nicola; Kelly, Dervla; Bennett, Kathleen; Fahey, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Psychotropic paediatric prescribing trends are increasing internationally. The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence and secular trends in psychotropic prescribing in Irish children and adolescents between 2002 and 2011...

  1. Trends in dental caries among Brazilian schoolchildren: 40 years of monitoring (1971-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constante, Helena Mendes; Souza, Marina Leite; Bastos, João Luiz; Peres, Marco Aurélio

    2014-08-01

    The study aimed to estimate the prevalence, severity, and inequality in the distribution of dental caries in schoolchildren from Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil, in 2011, and to compare the results with data from previous studies carried out since 1971. All 12- and 13-year-old schoolchildren enrolled in a public school were eligible. Dental caries were assessed according to the World Health Organisation diagnostic criteria. Decayed, missing and filled surfaces and teeth (DMFS/DMFT) indexes, the Significant Caries Index (SiC) and the Gini coefficient (to assess inequalities in the distribution of dental caries) were estimated. The response rate was 82.3% (n = 130). The prevalence of dental caries decreased from 98.0% (95% CI 96.0-100.0) in 1971 to 36.9% (95% CI 28.5-45.3) in 2011. The mean DMFT ranged from 9.2 in 1971 to 0.7 in 2011. The mean DMFS index was 1.2 (95% CI 0.8-1.6) in 2011. The Gini coefficient was 0.624 in 2002 but increased to 0.725 in 2011; the Lorenz curve showed that 70-75% of dental caries attacks was restricted to 20% of the population in 2011. A reduction of 41.2% in the mean SiC index was observed between 2002 (3.4, 95% CI 3.0-3.8) and 2011 (1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.1). An effective decline in the prevalence and severity of dental caries in schoolchildren was observed throughout 40 years of monitoring. However, a small proportion of the population has experienced most of the caries burden in the recent years studied.

  2. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Flousek

    Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  3. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  4. Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

    2017-02-01

    The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Monitoring of organic contaminants in sediments from the Korean coast: Spatial distribution and temporal trends (2001-2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee Gu; Moon, Hyo Bang; Choi, Minkyu; Yu, Jun

    2011-06-01

    Spatial and temporal trends of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were estimated through a nationwide environmental monitoring program from 2001 to 2007. The concentrations of organic contaminants in sediments along the Korean coast were relatively low or moderate compared with foreign studies. The mean detection frequencies of organic contaminants during the seven years were highest for PAHs and PCDD/Fs, followed by PCBs, DDTs, TBT and HCHs in decreasing order. Based on published sediment quality guidelines, the ecological risks of persistent organic pollutants in sediments along the Korean coast were low, despite exceedances of the ERL at 2-6 sites for DDTs, and the TEL at 9-18 sites for PCDD/Fs. Nonparametric tests to assess temporal trends revealed significant decreasing trends for PCBs and PCDD/Fs at four and three sites, respectively (pcontaminants.

  6. Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey V Altukhov

    Full Text Available After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery, Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries. Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island or not recovering (Kozlov Cape than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

  7. Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altukhov, Alexey V; Andrews, Russel D; Calkins, Donald G; Gelatt, Thomas S; Gurarie, Eliezer D; Loughlin, Thomas R; Mamaev, Evgeny G; Nikulin, Victor S; Permyakov, Peter A; Ryazanov, Sergey D; Vertyankin, Vladimir V; Burkanov, Vladimir N

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

  8. Long terms trends of multimorbidity and association with physical activity in older English population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhalwani, Nafeesa N; O'Donovan, Gary; Zaccardi, Francesco; Hamer, Mark; Yates, Thomas; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

    2016-01-19

    Multimorbidity has become one of the main challenges in the recent years for patients, health care providers and the health care systems globally. However, literature describing the burden of multimorbidity in the elderly population, especially longitudinal trends is very limited. Physical activity is recommended as one of the main lifestyle changes in the prevention and management of multiple chronic diseases worldwide; however, the evidence on its association with multimorbidity remains inconclusive. Therefore, we aimed to assess the longitudinal trends of multimorbidity and the association between multimorbidity and physical activity in a nationally representative cohort of the English population aged ≥50 years between 2002 and 2013. We used data on 15,688 core participants from six waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, with complete information on physical activity. Self-reported physical activity was categorised as inactive, mild, moderate and vigorous levels of physical activity. We calculated the number of morbidities and the prevalence of multimorbidity (more than 2 chronic conditions) between 2002 and 2013 overall and by levels of self-reported physical activity. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for multimorbidity by each category of physical activity, adjusting for potential confounders. There was a progressive decrease over time in the proportion of participants without any chronic conditions (33.9% in 2002/2003 vs. 26.8% in 2012/2013). In contrast, the prevalence of multimorbidity steadily increased over time (31.7% in 2002/2003 vs. 43.1% in 2012/2013). Compared to the physically inactive group, the OR for multimorbidity was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) in mild, 0.61 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.66) in moderate and 0.45 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.49) in the vigorous physical activity group. This study demonstrated an inverse dose-response association between levels of physical activity and multimorbidity, however, given the

  9. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  10. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  11. Study on the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population, 2004-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijuan Zhang

    Full Text Available Injuries are a growing public health concern in China, accounting for more than 30% of all Person Years of Life Lost (PYLL due to premature mortality. This study analyzes the trend and disease burden of injury deaths in Chinese population from 2004 to 2010, using data from the National Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, as injury deaths are classified based on the International Classification of Disease-10(th Revision (ICD-10. We observed that injury death accounted for nearly 10% of all deaths in China throughout the period 2004-2010, and the injury mortality rates were higher in males than those in females, and higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Traffic crashes (33.79-38.47% of all injury deaths and suicides (16.20-22.01% were the two leading causes of injury deaths. Alarmingly, suicide surpassed traffic crashes as the leading cause of injury mortality in rural females, yet adults aged 65 and older suffered the greatest number of fatal falls (20,701 deaths, 2004-2010. The burden of injury among men (72.11% was about three times more than that of women's (28.89%. This study provides indispensible evidence that China Authority needs to improve the surveillance and deterrence of three major types of injuries: Traffic-related injury deaths should be targeted for injury prevention activities in all population, people aged 65+ should be encouraged to take individual fall precautions, and prevention of suicidal behavior in rural females should be another key priority for the government of China.

  12. [Trends in the consumption of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a Colombian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado-Alba, Jorge Enrique; Alzate-Carvajal, Verónica; Jimenez-Canizales, Carlos Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Latin America, psychotropic medications are the third most marketed drug group, especially antidepressants (35%) and anxiolytics (5%). The objective of this study was to determine the trends in the consumption and the costs of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a population of patients enrolled in the Health System of Colombia. A descriptive, observational study was performed using the data recorded inprescriptions for any anxiolytic or hypnotic drug prescribed to outpatients in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 in a population of 3.5 million people. Sociodemographic, pharmacological variables, overall costs, and cost per thousand inhabitants per day (CHD), were also recorded. The number of patients who received the drugs studied varied from 11,097 to 19,231 between 2008 and 2013. The most used drugs were clonazepam (44.1% of formulations), alprazolam (31.2%), and lorazepam (13.2%). The invoiced value of anxiolytics increased from US$ 207,673.63 in 2008 to US$ 488,977 in 2013, an increase of 135.4%. The CHD was US$ 0.31 for benzodiazepines, and US$ 0.02 for zaleplon, zolpidem and zopiclone (Z drugs) for 2008, and US$ 0.36 and US$ 0.02 in 2013 respectively. The CHD declined after 2010 following the introduction of generic drugs. Patients receiving benzodiazepines in Colombia are mostly women, average age 55 years, with very low frequency in defined daily doses per thousand inhabitants when compared with other countries. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  13. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  14. [Secular trends in blood lipid disorders among adolescents: population study in Novosibirsk (1989-2003)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denisova, D V; Nikitin, Iu P; Zav'ialova, L G; Burakova, S V; Ivanova, M V

    2007-01-01

    Hyperlipidemia is a known risk factor of coronary artery disease. The reduction of elevated serum total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in childhood may reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Aim of the study was to assess prevalence and trends in lipid profile and lipid disorders in adolescent population in Novosibirsk (1989-2003). Four cross-sectional surveys of school children aged 14-17 years in 1989 (n=656), in 1994 (n=620), in 1999 (n=626) and in 2003 (n=667) were carried out. Total sample was 2569 (1214 males and 1355 females). Blood total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TG) were measured by enzymatic methods. LDL-C was calculated with Friedwald's formula. Associations of blood lipids with age, sex, year of study, body mass index (kg/m2), blood pressure and main nutrients of diet were measured by GLM method. Prevalence of dyslipidemia was evaluated with NCEP-peds criteria. Diet was estimated using 24-hour dietary recall. During the 15-year period (1989-2003) mean serum TC decreased from 175 to 162 mg/dl in males and from 191 to 175 mg/dl in females (p dislipidemias in adolescents of Novosibirsk significantly changed following the changes of body mass index and diet.

  15. Testicular cancer trends as 'whistle blowers' of testicular developmental problems in populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakkebaek, N E; Rajpert-De Meyts, E; Jørgensen, N; Main, K M; Leffers, H; Andersson, A-M; Juul, A; Jensen, T K; Toppari, J

    2007-08-01

    Recently a worldwide rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer (TGCC) has been repeatedly reported. The changing disease pattern may signal that other testicular problems may also be increasing. We have reviewed recent research progress, in particular evidence gathered in the Nordic countries, which shows strong associations between testicular cancer, undescended testis, hypospadias, poor testicular development and function, and male infertility. These studies have led us to suggest the existence of a testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS), of which TGCC, undescended testis, hypospadias/disorders of sex differentiation and male fertility problems may be symptoms with varying penetration. In spite of their fetal origin, most of the TDS symptoms, including TGCC and poor semen quality, can only be diagnosed in adulthood. Data from a Danish-Finnish research collaboration strongly suggest that trends in TGCC rates of a population may be 'whistle blowers' of other reproductive health problems. As cancer registries are often of excellent quality - in contrast to registries for congenital abnormalities - health authorities should consider an increase in TGCC as a warning that other reproductive health problems may also be rising.

  16. Satellite-Based Tropospheric NO2 Column Trends in the Last 10 Years Over Mexican Urban Areas Measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, C. I.; Stremme, W.; Grutter, M.

    2015-12-01

    Population density and economic activities in urban agglomerations have drastically increased in many cities in Mexico during the last decade. Several factors are responsible for increased urbanization such as a shift of people from rural to urban areas while looking for better education, services and job opportunities as well as the natural growth of the urban areas themselves. Urbanization can create great social, economic and environmental pressures and changes which can easily be observed in most urban agglomerations in the world. In this study, we have focused on analyzing tropospheric NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) column trends over Mexican urban areas that have a population of at least one million inhabitants according to the latest 2010 population census. Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements of NO2 conducted by the space-borne Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite between 2005 and 2014 have been used for this analysis. This dataset has allowed us to obtain a satellite-based 10-year tropospheric NO2 column trend over the most populated Mexican cities which include the dominating metropolitan area of Mexico City with more than twenty million inhabitants as well as ten other Mexican cities with a population ranging between one to five million inhabitants with a wide range of activities (commercial, agricultural or heavily industrialized) as well as two important border crossings. Distribution maps of tropospheric NO2 columns above the studied urban agglomerations were reconstructed from the analyzed OMI dataset, allowing to identify areas of interest due to clear NO2 enhancements inside these urban regions.

  17. Use of archive aerial photography for monitoring black mangrove populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    A study was conducted on the south Texas Gulf Coast to evaluate archive aerial color-infrared (CIR) photography combined with supervised image analysis techniques to quantify changes in black mangrove [Avicennia germinans (L.) L.] populations over a 26-year period. Archive CIR film from two study si...

  18. Abundance, distribution and trend of the lesser spotted eagle (Aquila pomarina breeding population in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dravecký Miroslav

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Odhad pocetnosti hniezdnej populácie orla kriklavého na Slovensku bol publikovaný v rokoch 1955-2002. V tejto štúdii odhadujeme pocetnost hniezdnej populácie orla kriklavého k rokom 1997 a 2014. K roku 1997 bol odhadnutý celkový pocet 762 párov. V roku 2002 bol publikovaný odhad pocetnosti k roku 2000 vo výške 800-900 párov. K roku 2014 odhadujeme pocetnost hniezdnej populácie orla kriklavého na Slovensku na 600-800 párov a klesajúci trend vývoja populácie v rokoch 2000-2013 priemerne -23%. Náš odhad je podložený výsledkami extrapolácie údajov, získaných v rokoch 2011-2013 z ôsmich vybraných chránených vtácích území v rámci riešenia projektu LIFE09 NAT/SK/000396 „Ochrana orla kriklavého na Slovensku“. Pri štatistickej analýze pocetnosti, hustôt a trendov pre celý areál hniezdneho rozšírenia druhu na Slovensku sme vychádzali zo sumarizovaných poctov hniezdnych párov, ich hustôt a trendov vo vybraných územiach a z ich stratifikácie podla výsledkov ANOVA a zhlukovej analýzy. Pre 8 chránených vtácích území vcelku (n = 8 i v clenení podla kvadrátov Databanky Fauny Slovenska (n = 119 sme vypocítali intervalové odhady stredných hodnôt poctu párov (prosté i vážené aritmetické priemery a mediány. Ich sumarizáciou pri postupnom zväcšovaní vzorky (n = 8, 9, 11a 12 a extrapoláciou na celý areál hniezdneho rozšírenia druhu na Slovensku (ca 28 935 km2 sa výsledné odhady stredných hodnôt stabilizovali na úrovni 670 (aritmetický priemer s 95%LCL = 507 a 95%UCL = 834 resp. 765 (medián s 95%LCL = 393 a 95%UCL = 841 hniezdnych párov. Ako najspolahlivejší odhad pocetnosti hniezdnej populácie orla kriklavého na Slovensku k roku 2014 vychádza medián 765 párov v 95 %-nom intervale spolahlivosti od 393 do 841 párov a s medzikvartilovým rozpätím od 418 do 835 párov. Odhadujeme 23 %-ný pokles celoslovenskej populácie v rokoch 2000-2013, co predstavuje mierny

  19. Time Trends in the Incidence and Treatment of Extra-Abdominal and Abdominal Aggressive Fibromatosis: A Population-Based Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.L.M. van Broekhoven (Danique); D.J. Grunhagen (Dirk Jan); M.A. den Bakker (Michael); T. van Dalen (Thijs); C. Verhoef (Kees)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Aggressive fibromatosis (AF) is a locally infiltrating soft-tissue tumor. In a population-based study in the Netherlands, we evaluated time trends for the incidence and treatment of AF. Methods: In PALGA: Dutch Pathology Registry, all patients diagnosed between 1993 and 2013

  20. Rate and time trend of perinatal, infant, maternal mortality, natality and natural population growth in kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    THE AIM OF WORK HAS BEEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RATE AND TIME TRENDS OF SOME INDICATORS OF THE HEATH CONDITION OF MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN KOSOVO: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality

  1. Facet injection trends in the Medicare population and the impact of bundling codes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckworth, William Jeremy; Jiang, Miao; Hemingway, Jennifer; Hughes, Danny; Staggs, Donald

    2016-09-01

    Interventional spine procedures have seen a steady increase in utilization over the last 10 to 20 years. In 2010, the Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes for facet injections were bundled with image guidance (fluoroscopic or computed tomography) and limited billing to a maximum of three levels. This was done in part because of increased utilization and to ensure that procedures were done appropriately with image guidance. The study aimed to evaluate if the CPT code changes correlated with a decreased utilization of facet injections. This is a retrospective time series study. The sample was composed of 100% Medicare Part B claims submitted for facet joint injections from 2000 to 2012, as documented in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Physician Supplier Procedure Summary (PSPS) master files. Procedure numbers and trends were the outcome measures. The trends of facet injections were analyzed from 2000 to 2012 using the CMS PSPS master files. The total number of lumbosacral and cervical-thoracic facet injections was noted. Changes over those years were calculated with specific attention to 2010, when CPT were bundled with image guidance and injections were limited to no more than three levels. Also, to account for the growth in the Medicare population, a calculation was done of injections per 100,000 Medicare enrollees. No funding was used for this study. Facet injection utilization increased from 2000 to 2012, with an average growth rate of 11% per year for lumbosacral facet injections and 15% for cervical-thoracic facet injections (per 100,000 Medicare enrollees). The largest growth occurred from 2000 to 2006 (25% growth per year for lumbosacral and 32% for cervical-thoracic injections per 100,000 Medicare enrollees) and this leveled off from 2007 to 2012 (-3% growth per year for lumbosacral and -2% for cervical-thoracic injections per 100,000 Medicare enrollees). The biggest drop in these procedures was in 2010, when there was a drop of 14

  2. Characteristics and trends on global environmental monitoring research: a bibliometric analysis based on Science Citation Index Expanded.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Di; Fu, Hui-Zhen; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2017-09-24

    A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded from Web of Science was carried out to provide insights into research activities and trends of the environmental monitoring from 1993 to 2012. Study emphases covered publication outputs, language, categories, journals, countries/territories, institutions, words, and hot issues. The results indicated that the annual output of environmental monitoring publications increased steadily. The environmental sciences and analytical chemistry were the two most common categories. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment published the most articles. The USA and the UK ranked in the top two in terms of all five indicators. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took the leading position of the institutions in terms of publication output. The synthesized analysis by words in title, author keywords, and KeyWords Plus provided important clues for hot issues. Researchers paid more attention on water environment monitoring than other environmental factors. The contaminants including organic contaminants, heavy metal, and radiation were most common research focuses, and the organic contaminants and heavy metal of the degree of concern were gradually rising. Sensor and biosensor played an important role in the field of environmental monitoring devices. In addition to conventional device detection method, the remote sensing, GIS, and wireless sensor networks were the mainstream environmental monitoring methods. The international organization, social awareness, and the countries' positive and effective political and policies promoted the published articles.

  3. Monitoring for resistance to organophosphorus and pyrethroid insecticides in varroa mite populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The occurrence of resistance in Varroa mite populations is a serious threat to the beekeeping industry and crops that rely on the honey bee for pollination. Integrated pest management strategies for control of this pest include the judicious use of insecticides. To monitor field populations of Varro...

  4. Management, Planning, and Monitoring Population Education Programmes. Abstract-Bibliography Series 8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Regional Office for Education in Asia and the Pacific.

    This document abstracts and reviews 32 publications that describe population education programs developed for Asia and the Pacific region. The documents are grouped under three sections: (1) management; (2) planning; and (3) monitoring/evaluation. Section 1 consists of 12 selected titles that deal with management of population education programs.…

  5. Trends and population dynamics of a Velvet Scoter (Melanitta fusca) population: influence of density dependence and winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, G.; Kölzsch, A.; Larsson, K.; Nordberg, M.; Höglund, J.

    2013-01-01

    As many seaduck populations around the world have been reported to be in decline, there is an increasing demand for knowledge about intrinsic and extrinsic factors determining population dynamics of these species. In this study, we analyzed long-term dynamics of the summer population of Velvet Scote

  6. Secular trends in cholesterol lipoproteins and triglycerides and prevalence of dyslipidemias in an urban Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Agrawal, Aachu; Kaul, Vijay; Gaur, Kiran; Gupta, Vijay P

    2008-10-24

    Coronary heart disease is increasing in urban Indian subjects and lipid abnormalities are important risk factors. To determine secular trends in prevalence of various lipid abnormalities we performed studies in an urban Indian population. Successive epidemiological Jaipur Heart Watch (JHW) studies were performed in Western India in urban locations. The studies evaluated adults > or = 20 years for multiple coronary risk factors using standardized methodology (JHW-1, 1993-94, n = 2212; JHW-2, 1999-2001, n = 1123; JHW-3, 2002-03, n = 458, and JHW-4 2004-2005, n = 1127). For the present analyses data of subjects 20-59 years (n = 4136, men 2341, women 1795) have been included. In successive studies, fasting measurements for cholesterol lipoproteins (total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol) and triglycerides were performed in 193, 454, 179 and 252 men (n = 1078) and 83, 472, 195, 248 women (n = 998) respectively (total 2076). Age-group specific levels of various cholesterol lipoproteins, triglycerides and their ratios were determined. Prevalence of various dyslipidemias (total cholesterol > or = 200 mg/dl, LDL cholesterol > or = 130 mg/dl, non-HDL cholesterol > or = 160 mg/dl, triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl, low HDL cholesterol cholesterol remnants > or = 25 mg/dl, and high total:HDL cholesterol ratio > or = 5.0, and > or = 4.0 were also determined. Significance of secular trends in prevalence of dyslipidemias was determined using linear-curve estimation regression. Association of changing trends in prevalence of dyslipidemias with trends in educational status, obesity and truncal obesity (high waist:hip ratio) were determined using two-line regression analysis. Mean levels of various lipoproteins increased sharply from JHW-1 to JHW-2 and then gradually in JHW-3 and JHW-4. Age-adjusted mean values (mg/dl) in JHW-1, JHW-2, JHW-3 and JHW-4 studies respectively showed a significant increase in total cholesterol (174.9 +/- 45, 196.0 +/- 42, 187.5 +/- 38, 193

  7. Nucleotide composition bias and codon usage trends of gene populations in Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capricolum and M. agalactiae

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Xiao-Xia Ma; Yu-Ping Feng; Jia-Ling Bai; De-Rong Zhang; Xin-Shi Lin; Zhong-Ren Ma

    2015-06-01

    Because of the low GC content of the gene population, amino acids of the two mycoplasmas tend to be encoded by synonymous codons with an A or T end. Compared with the codon usage of ovine, Mycoplasma capricolum and M. agalactiae tend to select optimal codons, which are rare codons in ovine. Due to codon usage pattern caused by genes with key biological functions, the overall codon usage trends represent a certain evolutionary direction in the life cycle of the two mycoplasmas. The overall codon usage trends of a gene population of M. capricolum subsp. capricolum can be obviously separated from other mycoplasmas, and the overall codon usage trends of M. agalactiae are highly similar to those of M. bovis. These results partly indicate the independent evolution of the two mycoplasmas without the limits of the host cell’s environment. The GC and AT skews estimate nucleotide composition bias at different positions of nucleotide triplets and the protein consideration caused by the nucleotide composition bias at codon positions 1 and 2 largely take part in synonymous codon usage patterns of the two mycoplasmas. The correlation between the codon adaptation index and codon usage variation indicates that the effect of codon usage on gene expression in M. capricolum subsp. capricolum is opposite to that of M. agalactiae, further suggesting independence of the evolutionary process influencing the overall codon usage trends of gene populations of mycoplasmas.

  8. Trends in vegetation degradation in relation to land tenure, rainfall, and population changes in Peddie district, Eastern Cape, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakembo, V

    2001-07-01

    Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation are examined in relation to land tenure, population increase, and rainfall variation in a part of Peddie district, Eastern Cape. Sequential aerial photographs between 1938 and 1988 are analyzed to determine trends in vegetation and population change in three different land-tenure units. The areal extent at each date of four distinct vegetation categories is determined using PC ARC/INFO GIS. Long-term annual rainfall trends for the area are analyzed and juxtaposed with vegetation changes. Extensive ground-truthing exercises are carried out to verify the present condition of vegetation condition in terms of cover and species composition. Differences in land-tenure systems are discerned as the dominant factor controlling variations in vegetation degradation. The study also reveals that neither population changes nor rainfall variations can explain the observed trends in vegetation degradation. Earlier injudicious land-use practices, sustained since the turn of the last century, may provide plausible explanations for the trends and present status of vegetation degradation in the area.

  9. Time trends in population prevalence of eating disorder behaviors and their relationship to quality of life.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Mitchison

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal trends in the burden of eating disorder (ED features, as estimated by the composite of their prevalence and impact upon quality of life (QoL over a period of 10 years. METHODOLOGY: Representative samples of 3010 participants in 1998 and 3034 participants in 2008 from the South Australian adult population were assessed for endorsement of ED features (objective binge eating, extreme dieting, and purging were assessed in both years; subjective binge eating and extreme weight/shape concerns were also assessed in 2008 and QoL using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 1998 to 2008 significant increases in the prevalence of objective binge eating (2.7% to 4.9%, p0.05. Multiple linear regressions found that in 1998 only objective binge eating significantly predicted scores on the mental health summary scale of the SF-36; however, in 2008 extreme weight/shape concerns, extreme dieting, and subjective binge eating were also significant predictors. Objective binge eating and extreme dieting were significant predictors of scores on the physical health summary scale of the SF-36 in both 1998 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The prevalence of ED behaviors increased between 1998 and 2008, while their impact on QoL remained stable. This suggests an overall increase in the burden of disordered eating from 1998 to 2008. Given that binge eating and extreme dieting predict impairment in QoL, the necessity of interventions to prevent both under- and over-eating is reinforced.

  10. [Trend of lipid profile in general population from Caceres Health Area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrador Gómez, P J; González Sanchidrián, S; Fuentes Rodríguez, J M; Gómez-Martino Arroyo, J R

    Dyslipidaemias are a modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. The aim of our study was to analyse lipid profile in general population, prevalence, and trend in five years. From January 2010 to December 2014, all biochemical controls from Primary Care in 18 years-old adults were analysed. We used as reference for lipid levels those stablished for the European Society Cardiology and Hypertension. When several controls from same patient were found, the best and worst levels were used for prevalence. 304.523 controls were included from 97.470 patients (mean age 53.4±19.4 years, 57.2% were women). Mean levels of total cholesterol, LDL-c, HDL-c and triglycerides were 193.2±38.7mg/dL, 114.9±33.6mg/dL, 56.9±15.4mg/dL and 113.2±78.1mg/dL, respectively. Prevalence of hypercholesterolemia, high LDL-c, low HDL-c and hypertriglyceridemia, in the best and worst levels, were 33.9% vs. 63.4%, 31.7% vs. 59.1%, 11.2% vs 23.9% and 9.9% vs. 27.5%. Between 2010 and 2014, mean levels of total cholesterol and LDL-c decreased in 12.2% and 14%. Prevalence of dyslipidaemia is high, although a decreased in mean levels of total cholesterol and LDL-c has been achieved. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Population trends in Pacific Oceanic sharks and the utility of regulations on shark finning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Shelley C; Harley, Shelton J; Hoyle, Simon D; Rice, Joel S

    2013-02-01

    Accurate assessment of shark population status is essential for conservation but is often constrained by limited and unreliable data. To provide a basis for improved management of shark resources, we analyzed a long-term record of species-specific catches, sizes, and sexes of sharks collected by onboard observers in the western and central Pacific Ocean from 1995 to 2010. Using generalized linear models, we estimated population-status indicators on the basis of catch rate and biological indicators of fishing pressure on the basis of median size to identify trends for blue (Prionace glauca), mako (Isurus spp.), oceanic whitetip (Carcharhinus longimanus), and silky (Carcharhinus falciformis) sharks. Standardized catch rates of longline fleets declined significantly for blue sharks in the North Pacific (by 5% per year [CI 2% to 8%]), for mako sharks in the North Pacific (by 7% per year [CI 3% to 11%]), and for oceanic whitetip sharks in tropical waters (by 17% per year [CI 14% to 20%]). Median lengths of silky and oceanic whitetip sharks decreased significantly in their core habitat, and almost all sampled silky sharks were immature. Our results are consistent with results of analyses of similar data sets. Combined, these results and evidence of targeted fishing for sharks in some regional fisheries heighten concerns for sustainable utilization, particularly for oceanic whitetip and North Pacific blue sharks. Regional regulations that prohibit shark finning (removal of fins and discarding of the carcass) were enacted in 2007 and are in many cases the only form of control on shark catches. However, there is little evidence of a reduction of finning in longline fisheries. In addition, silky and oceanic whitetip sharks are more frequently retained than finned, which suggests that even full implementation of and adherence to a finning prohibition may not substantially reduce mortality rates for these species. We argue that finning prohibitions divert attention from

  12. Population trends in Vojvodina during the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golubović Petar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Demographic development belongs to the group of the primary social and developmental issues, and the demographic processes and tendencies in the population trends are included in the basic social processes which are expressed by the demographic (that is, synthetic social indicators. The process of the depopulation of Vojvodina is a result of the several-decades long decrease in birthrate, ageing of the population and mortality rate which is related to a series of historical, socioeconomic, cultural educational, specifically local, family, as well as psychological factors. Unfavourable demographic circumstances in Vojvodina started already in the 1920s, and became more pronounced after World War II, in 1989 resulting in the negative natural increase (-1%o, in the process of a more intensive decrease in the population which today, in the 21st century, acquires greater dimensions (-4,7%o in 2002, creating not only disturbances in the demographic, but also in the economic-social structures. Taking into account the far-developed process of demographic ageing of the population of Vojvodina and the accepted reproductive norms implying a low fertility (giving birth to a smaller number of children or only one child which does not ensure even the simple reproduction of the population, one cannot expect - in spite of the present immigrational processes (the inflow of refugees and the absolute increase in the population (between the previous two censuses - significantly more favourable population trends and a better prospective demographic picture of Vojvodina.

  13. Changing guards: time to move beyond Body Mass Index for population monitoring of excess adiposity

    OpenAIRE

    Tanamas, Stephanie K.; Lean, Michael E. J.; Combet, Emilie; Vlassopoulos, Antonios; Zimmet, Paul Z.; Peeters, Anna

    2016-01-01

    With the obesity epidemic, and the effects of aging populations, human phenotypes have changed over two generations, possibly more dramatically than in other species previously. As obesity is an important and growing hazard for population health, we recommend a systematic evaluation of the optimal measure(s) for population-level excess body fat. Ideal measure(s) for monitoring body composition and obesity should be simple, as accurate and sensitive as possible, and provide good categorisation...

  14. Oncorhynchus nerka population monitoring in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teuscher, D.M.; Taki, D.; Ariwite, K.

    1996-05-01

    Critical habitat for endangered Snake River sockeye salmon includes five rearing lakes located in the Sawtooth Valley of central Idaho. Most of the lakes contain either introduced or endemic kokanee populations. Snake River sockeye occur naturally in Redfish Lake, and are being stocked in Redfish and Pettit Lakes. Because kokanee compete with sockeye for limited food resources, understanding population characteristics of both species such as spawn timing, egg-to-fry survival, distribution and abundance are important components of sockeye recovery. This chapter describes some of those characteristics. In 1995, hydroacoustic estimates of O. nerka densities in the Sawtooth Valley Lakes ranged from 57 to 465 fish/ha. Densities were greatest in Pettit followed by Redfish (167), Alturas (95), and Stanley Lakes. O. nerka numbers increased from 1994 values in Pettit and Alturas Lakes, but declined in Redfish and Stanley. Despite a decline in total lake abundance, O. nerka biomass estimates in Redfish Lake increased. Approximately 144,000 kokanee fry recruited to Redfish Lake from Fishhook Creek. O. nerka fry recruitment to Stanley and Alturas lake was 5,000 and 30,000 fry, respectively. Egg-to-fry survival was 14% in Fishhook and 7% in Stanley Lake Creek. In Fishhook Creek, kokanee spawning escapement was estimated using stream surveys and a weir. Escapement estimates were 4,860 from weir counts, and 7,000 from stream surveys. As part of the kokanee reduction program, 385 of the spawning female kokanee were culled. Escapement for Stanley Lake Creek was only 60 fish, a ten fold decrease from 1994. In Alturas Lake, kokanee spawners dropped by 50% to 1,600.

  15. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART from 2002 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Biedenbach

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs, were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086 and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705 were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  16. [Monitoring trends in fixed partial denture design based on national surveys].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejérdy, Pál; Tollas, Ors Lehel; Fejérdy, László; Borbély, Judit; Hermann, Peter

    2007-12-01

    partial dentures provide a sound basis for estimating the present oral health status of the population. Monitoring patterns of change have an important epidemiological relevance. Results of our present findings serve as a reliable source to plan future strategy of the dental care system and also helps to measure efficiency of the dental education system.

  17. Immunotoxicity Monitoring in a Population Exposed to Polychlorinated Biphenyls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Hajo; Fahlenkamp, Astrid; Schettgen, Thomas; Esser, Andre; Gube, Monika; Ziegler, Patrick; Kraus, Thomas; Rink, Lothar

    2016-03-08

    The relationship between polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) burden and several indicators of immune function was investigated as part of the HELPcB (Health Effects in High-Level Exposure to PCB) program, offering bio-monitoring to workers, relatives, and neighbors exposed to PCBs by a German transformers and capacitors recycling company. The present retrospective observational study evaluates the correlation of plasma levels of total PCBs, five indicator congeners (28, 101, 138, 153, 180), and seven dioxin-like congeners (105, 114, 118, 156, 157, 167, 189) with several parameters of immune function. The cross-sectional study was performed immediately after the end of exposure (258 subjects), and one (218 subjects), and two (177 subjects) years later. At the first time point, measurements showed significant positive correlation between congeners with low to medium chlorination and the relative proportion of CD19 positive B-cells among lymphocytes, as well as a negative correlation of PCB114 with serum IgM, and of PCB 28 with suppressor T-cell and NK-cell numbers. Congeners with a high degree of chlorination, in particular PCB157 and 189, were positively associated with expression of the activation marker CD25 on T-cells in the cohort of the second time point. No associations between PCB levels and IFN-y production by T-cells and killing by NK-cells were found. In conclusion, there were several effects on the cellular composition of adaptive immunity, affecting both T- and B-cells. However, the values were not generally outside the reference ranges for healthy adult individuals and did not indicate overt functional immunodeficiency, even in subjects with the uppermost PCB burden.

  18. Immunotoxicity Monitoring in a Population Exposed to Polychlorinated Biphenyls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajo Haase

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB burden and several indicators of immune function was investigated as part of the HELPcB (Health Effects in High-Level Exposure to PCB program, offering bio-monitoring to workers, relatives, and neighbors exposed to PCBs by a German transformers and capacitors recycling company. The present retrospective observational study evaluates the correlation of plasma levels of total PCBs, five indicator congeners (28, 101, 138, 153, 180, and seven dioxin-like congeners (105, 114, 118, 156, 157, 167, 189 with several parameters of immune function. The cross-sectional study was performed immediately after the end of exposure (258 subjects, and one (218 subjects, and two (177 subjects years later. At the first time point, measurements showed significant positive correlation between congeners with low to medium chlorination and the relative proportion of CD19 positive B-cells among lymphocytes, as well as a negative correlation of PCB114 with serum IgM, and of PCB 28 with suppressor T-cell and NK-cell numbers. Congeners with a high degree of chlorination, in particular PCB157 and 189, were positively associated with expression of the activation marker CD25 on T-cells in the cohort of the second time point. No associations between PCB levels and IFN-y production by T-cells and killing by NK-cells were found. In conclusion, there were several effects on the cellular composition of adaptive immunity, affecting both T- and B-cells. However, the values were not generally outside the reference ranges for healthy adult individuals and did not indicate overt functional immunodeficiency, even in subjects with the uppermost PCB burden.

  19. Trends and Determinants of Prescription Drug Use during Pregnancy and Postpartum in British Columbia, 2002-2011: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Smolina

    Full Text Available To describe trends, patterns, and determinants of prescription drug use during pregnancy and postpartum.This is a retrospective, population-based study of all women who gave birth between January 2002 and 31 December 2011 in British Columbia, Canada. Study population consisted of 225,973 women who had 322,219 pregnancies. We examined administrative datasets containing person-specific information on filled prescriptions, hospitalizations, and medical services. Main outcome measures were filled prescriptions during pregnancy and postpartum. We used logistic regressions to examine associations between prescription drug use and maternal characteristics.Approximately two thirds of women filled a prescription during pregnancy, increasing from 60% in 2002 to 66% in 2011. The proportion of pregnant women using medicines in all three trimesters of pregnancy increased from 20% in 2002 to 27% in 2011. Use of four or more different types of prescription drug during at least one trimester increased from 8.4% in 2002 to 11.7% in 2011. Higher BMI, smoking during pregnancy, age under 25, carrying multiples, and being diagnosed with a chronic condition all significantly increased the odds of prescription drug use during pregnancy.The observed increase in the number of prescriptions and number of different drugs being dispensed suggests a trend in prescribing practices with potentially important implications for mothers, their neonates, and caregivers. Monitoring of prescribing practices and further research into the safety of most commonly prescribed medications is crucial in better understanding risks and benefits to the fetus and the mother.

  20. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    over this period. In the Indian Ocean and particularly the Pacific Ocean the trends in both sea level and temperature are still dominated by the large changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In terms of contribution to the total global sea level change, the contribution of the central...

  1. Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

    2013-07-01

    Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization.

  2. Lack of agreement and trending ability of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor compared with thermodilution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Sørensen, H; Hansen, K L; Ostergaard, M

    2012-01-01

    cardiac output (CO) during steady state and with induced haemodynamic changes in patients scheduled for elective cardiac surgery. METHODS: Twenty-five patients were enrolled. After induction of anaesthesia, endotracheal intubation using a dedicated ECOM tube, and insertion of the pulmonary artery catheter......BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive monitoring systems of central haemodynamics are gaining increasing popularity. The present study investigated the precision of the endotracheal cardiac output monitor (ECOM) system and its agreement with pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution (PAC TD) for measuring...

  3. Current Trends in Neuromuscular Blockade, Management, and Monitoring amongst Singaporean Anaesthetists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy H. Teoh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This survey aimed to investigate the attitudes/practice pertaining the use, management, and monitoring of neuromuscular blockade amongst Singaporean anaesthetists. Methods. All specialist accredited anaesthetists registered with the Singapore Medical Council were invited to complete an anonymous online survey. Results. The response rate was 39.5%. Neuromuscular monitoring (NM was used routinely by only 13.1% despite the widespread availability of monitors. 82% stated residual NMB (RNMB was a significant risk factor for patient outcome, but only 24% believed NMB monitoring should be compulsory in all paralyzed patients. 63.6% of anaesthetists estimated the risk of RNMB in their own institutions to be 50% said such benefits may be able to offset the associated costs. Conclusions. There is a significant need for reeducation about RNMB, studies on local RNMB incidences, and strengthening of current monitoring practices and guidelines. Strategies are discussed. As NM monitors appear widely available and reversal of NMB standard practice, it is hopeful that Singaporean anaesthetists will change and strive for evidence-based best clinical practice to enhance patient safety.

  4. Trends in diet quality among adolescents, adults and older adults: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha Caesar de Andrade, PhD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to monitor diet quality and associated factors in adolescents, adults and older adults from the city of São Paulo, Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional population-based study involving 2376 individuals surveyed in 2003, and 1662 individuals in 2008 (Health Survey of São Paulo, ISA-Capital. Participants were of both sexes and aged 12 to 19 years old (adolescents, 20 to 59 years old (adults and 60 years old or over (older adults. Food intake was assessed using the 24-h dietary recall method while diet quality was determined by the Brazilian Healthy Eating Index (BHEI-R. The prevalence of descriptive variables for 2003 and 2008 was compared adopting a confidence interval of 95%. The means of total BHEI-R score and its components for 2003 and 2008 were compared for each age group. Associations between the BHEI-R and independent variables were evaluated for each survey year using multiple linear regression analysis. Results showed that the mean BHEI-R increased (54.9 vs. 56.4 points over the five-year period. However, the age group evaluation showed a deterioration in diet quality of adolescents, influenced by a decrease in scores for dark-green and orange vegetables and legumes, total grains, oils and SoFAAS (solid fat, alcohol and added sugar components. In the 2008 survey, adults had a higher BHEI-R score, by 6.1 points on average, compared to adolescents. Compared to older adults, this difference was 10.7 points. The diet quality remains a concern, especially among adolescents, that had the worst results compared to the other age groups.

  5. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  6. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, Lars Ulrik; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette;

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...... height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men ..., systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  7. Population ageing trends in Serbia from the beginning of the 21st century and prospects until 2061: Regional aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penev Goran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the 2011 Census confirm that Serbia is still among countries with the oldest population in Europe. Persons aged 65+ out­numbered those under the age of 15 by 20% (17.4% versus 14.4%, and the median age was 42.7 years. Population ageing has continued, but it was slower in the intercensal period of 2002-2011 than during the 1980s and 1990s. Population ageing in Serbia has not only continued but is also widespread at all territorial levels. According to the 2011 Census, in all four statistical regions (NUTS 2, people aged 65 or older outnumbered those under the age of 15 and, in comparison to 2002, regional differences in the key indicators of population ageing increased. Heterogeneity is more present at lower territorial levels (cities/municipalities with the least favourable age structure which will be pointed out. This paper also explores trends of components of population dynamics in the intercensal period 2002-2011, as well as causal relationship with the change of the age structure. Current demographic trends (low fertility, negative natural increase, net emigration and very old age structure severely limit the spectrum of future demographic changes both in the medium and especially in the short term. The situation is particularly influenced by the entrance of the large baby boom generation in the elderly ages. Explorations of future population trends are conducted based on the author’s own demographic projections for Serbia until 2061 (revision 2014. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 47006: Investigation of demographic phenomena in the function of public policies in Serbia

  8. Organic Nitrogen Concentrations and Trends in Urban Stormwater: Implications for Stormwater Monitoring and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusk, M. G.; Toor, G.

    2014-12-01

    Organic nitrogen (ON) can be a significant contributor of bioavailable N to the phytoplankton and bacteria that cause eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. In urban systems, urban stormwater runoff containing ON compounds is one source of potentially bioavailable N in water bodies. However, ON characterization and concentrations in urban stormwater are rarely reported or considered for urban stormwater management. We instrumented a 13-hectare residential catchment in Florida's Tampa Bay area with an ISCO autosampler and collected storm event runoff samples at 15-minute intervals during the 2013 wet season (June to September, n =236). Our objectives were to determine the (1) relative importance of ON compared to inorganic N forms (i.e., NO3- and NH4+) in the runoff, (2) investigate temporal trends in the ON concentrations in runoff, and (3) assess how rainfall depth and intensity affect any temporal trends. Mean concentration of total N in stormwater runoff for the wet season was 1.86 mg/l, of which dissolved and particulate ON were 63%. The dominance of ON in urban stormwater runoff suggests that the ON fraction should also be targeted when stormwater control measures call for N reductions. Particulate ON (PON) displayed a strong seasonal first flush trend as season progressed from June (1.45 mg/l; n =75) to September (0.20 mg/l; n = 28), while dissolved ON (DON) did not display any seasonal trend, with mean monthly concentrations ranging from 0.36 to 0.80 mg/l. A principal component analysis using storm event N concentrations, rainfall depth, and rainfall intensity as variables showed no significant correlation, suggesting that storms of various sizes and intensities can mobilize ON. The seasonal first flush observed for PON in the wet season can provide a window of time for optimal N removal and implies that stormwater best management practices should focus on capturing plant materials earlier in the season.

  9. Population trend and distribution of the vulnerable common hippopotamus Hippopotamus amphibius in the Mara Region of Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanga, Erustus M.; Ogutu, Joseph O.; Olff, Han; Santema, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The common hippopotamus Hippopotamus amphibius can significantly influence the dynamics of ecosystems and engender serious conflicts with people but, in Kenya, one of the species strongholds, it has been little studied or monitored. We surveyed the hippopotamus population in the Masai Mara National

  10. Linking climate trends to population dynamics in the Baltic ringed seal: impacts of historical and future winter temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundqvist, Lisa; Harkonen, Tero; Svensson, Carl Johan; Harding, Karin C

    2012-12-01

    A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30, 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.

  11. Compression or expansion of morbidity? Trends in healthy-life expectancy in the elderly Austrian population between 1978 and 1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblhammer, G; Kytir, J

    2001-02-01

    The aim of our study is to test the theories of compression or expansion of morbidity on the basis of data on the elderly population of Austria. Our data come from four microcensus surveys for the years 1978, 1983, 1991, and 1998. We use self-perceived health ratings to calculate healthy-life expectancy for the elderly population aged 60-89. Because our data are based on four cross-sectional surveys, we devote the first part of the paper to the consequences of possible sampling and non-sampling errors in our analysis of time trends. We come to the conclusion that, although the absolute number of years lived in good health may be overestimated, the time trend in healthy-life expectancy over the 20 years most probably is unbiased. The second part of the paper describes trends in healthy-life expectancy for the Austrian population. Our results suggest that both healthy-life expectancy and the ratio of healthy years to life expectancy increased between 1978 and 1998. Thus, in Austria ill health seems to be more and more compressed into the later years of life. Contrary to Fries's hypothesis, however, life expectancy does not seem to be approaching a maximum average life span in Austria, as mortality rates at older ages have been continuously decreasing over the last 20 years.

  12. Estimation of change in populations and communities from monitoring survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Busch, David E.; Trexler, Joel C.

    2003-01-01

    Monitoring surveys provide fundamental information for use in environmental decision making by permitting assessment of both current population (or community) status and change in status, by providing a historical context of the present status, and by documenting response to ongoing management. Conservation of species and communities has historically been based upon monitoring information, and prioritization of species and habitats for conservation action often requires reliable, quantitative results. Although many monitoring programs exist for populations, species, and communities, as well as for biotic and abiotic features of the environment, estimation of population and community change from surveys can sometimes be controversial, and demands on monitoring information have increased greatly in recent years. Information is often required at multiple spatial scales for use in geographic information systems, and information needs exist for description of regional patterns of change in populations, communities, and ecosystems. Often, attempts are made to meet these needs using information collected for other purposes or at inappropriate geographic scales, leading to information that is difficult to analyze and interpret. In this chapter, we address some of the constraints and issues associated with estimating change in wildlife species and species groups from monitoring surveys, and use bird surveys as our primary examples.

  13. Analyses and thought on countermeasures for the family formation trend among floating population in Wuhan city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X; Sun, L

    1997-01-01

    The familized floating population in China consists of families formed from blood kinship networks of floating population. This study examines the size of the familized floating population in Wuhan City in 1995 and the negative impacts for urban management, supplies, family planning, education, and employment. Floating population families are formed due to the presence of rural and urban differences, the desire for income, and a goal of permanent urban residence with family stability and steady economic gains. Data were obtained from a 1% sample survey among the floating population who lived in rented, borrowed, or self-built houses or apartments for over 6 months. 69.2% of the floating population, or 335,000 people, were familized floating population. 55.01% of the familized floating population were women, and 60.41% of the laborers were women. 33.50% of the women who "should" be employed were not. 50% of the women in some districts were unemployed. 30.61% were children under 14 years of age. The dependency burden for the employed floating population was greater than for the urban employed population. The birth rate among the familized floating population was 44.60%. 89.59% of women aged older than 15 years in the familized floating population were of childbearing age. Most had a low level of education. The floating population creates the need for educating 15,000 new students every year; this requires construction of 10 new schools every year. The floating population increases the need to produce more electricity, clothing, food, houses, and other services or facilities. The floating population brings norms about a higher family size, which challenges urban residents' beliefs and impedes smooth implementation of the family planning policy. Management needs to regulate population flow, reduce consumption, and control family formation and childbearing. Management needs to increase mobility costs.

  14. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  15. Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program, Entiat River Status and Trend Snorkel Surveys and Rotary Smolt Trap Operations in Nason Creek, March 2007 through March 2008.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, Matthew; Jorgensen, John; Murdock, Keely

    2008-03-10

    The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP-BPA project No.2003-0017) has been created as a cost effective means of developing protocols and new technologies, novel indicators, sample designs, analytical, data management and communication tools and skills, and restoration experiments that support the development of a region-wide Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) program to assess the status of anadromous salmonid populations, their tributary habitat and restoration and management actions. The most straightforward approach to developing a regional-scale monitoring and evaluation program would be to increase standardization among status and trend monitoring programs. However, the diversity of species and their habitat, as well as the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding indicators, metrics, and data interpretation methods, requires the testing of multiple approaches. Thus, the approach ISEMP has adopted is to develop a broad template that may differ in the details among subbasins, but one that will ultimately lead to the formation of a unified RME process for the management of anadromous salmonid populations and habitat across the Columbia River Basin. ISEMP has been initiated in three pilot subbasins, the Wenatchee/Entiat, John Day, and Salmon. To balance replicating experimental approaches with the goal of developing monitoring and evaluation tools that apply as broadly as possible across the Pacific Northwest, these subbasins were chosen as representative of a wide range of potential challenges and conditions, e.g., differing fish species composition and life histories, ecoregions, institutional settings, and existing data. ISEMP has constructed a framework that builds on current status and trend monitoring infrastructures in these pilot subbasins, but challenges current programs by testing alternative monitoring approaches. In addition, the ISEMP is: (1) Collecting information over a hierarchy of spatial scales, allowing for a

  16. Assessing threats to species at risk using stage-structured state-space models: mortality trends in skate populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, Douglas P; Jonsen, Ian D; Simon, James E; Myers, Ransom A

    2009-07-01

    Population models are needed to assess the threats to species at risk and to evaluate alternative management actions. Data to support modeling is limited for many species at risk, and commonly used approaches generally assume stationary vital rates, a questionable assumption given widespread ecosystem change. We describe a modeling approach that can be applied to time series of length composition data to estimate vital rates and test for changes in these rates. Our approach uses stage-structured population models fit within a Bayesian state-space model. This approach simultaneously allows for both process and observation uncertainty, and it facilitates incorporating prior information on population dynamics and on the monitoring process. We apply these models to populations of winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) that have been designated as "endangered" or "threatened." These models indicate that natural mortality has decreased for juveniles and increased for adults in these populations. The declines observed in these populations had been attributed to unsustainable rates of bycatch in fisheries for other groundfishes; our analyses indicate that increased natural mortality of adults is also an important factor contributing to these declines. Adult natural mortality was positively related to grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance, suggesting the hypothesis that increased adult mortality reflected increased predation by expanding grey seal herds. Population projections indicated that the threatened population would be expected to stabilize at a low level of abundance if all fishery removals were eliminated, but that the endangered population would likely continue to decline even in the absence of fishery removals. We note that time series of size distributions are available for most marine fish populations monitored by research surveys, and we suggest that a similar approach could be used to extract information from these time series in order to estimate mortality

  17. Historical Trend of Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Meeting Medicare Medication Therapy Management Eligibility Criteria in Non-Medicare Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junling; Surbhi, Satya; Zhang, Zhiping; Spivey, Christina A.; Chisholm-Burns, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Background Prior research examining racial and ethnic disparities in meeting Medicare medication therapy management (MTM) eligibility criteria among the non-Medicare population suggests minorities have lower likelihood of being eligible than non-Hispanic Whites (Whites). However, such research has not examined trends in disparities and whether these disparities may be expected to decrease over time based on historical data. Objectives To examine trends in MTM eligibility disparities among the non-Medicare population from 1996-1997 to 2009-2010. Methods This retrospective observational analysis used Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data from the study periods. The MTM eligibility criteria used by health insurance plans in 2008 and 2010 were analyzed. Trends in disparities were examined by including interaction terms between dummy variables for 2009-2010 and non-Hispanic Blacks (Blacks)/Hispanics in a logistic regression. The effect of interaction was estimated on both the multiplicative and additive terms. Main and sensitivity analyses were conducted to represent the ranges of the Medicare MTM eligibility thresholds used by health insurance plans. Results According to the main analysis, Blacks and Hispanics were less likely to be eligible than Whites for both sets of eligibility criteria in 1996-1997 and in 2009-2010. Trend analysis for both sets of criteria found that on the multiplicative term, there were generally no significant changes in disparities between Whites and Blacks/Hispanics from 1996-1997 to 2009-2010. Interaction on the additive term found evidence that disparities between Whites and Blacks/Hispanics may have increased from 1996-1997 to 2009-2010 (e.g., in the main analysis between Whites and Hispanics for 2010 eligibility criteria: difference in odds= -0.03, 95% CI: [-0.03]-[-0.02]). Conclusions Racial and ethnic minorities in the non-Medicare population experience persistent and often increasing disparities in meeting MTM eligibility criteria

  18. Changing guards: time to move beyond body mass index for population monitoring of excess adiposity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanamas, S K; Lean, M E J; Combet, E; Vlassopoulos, A; Zimmet, P Z; Peeters, A

    2016-07-01

    With the obesity epidemic, and the effects of aging populations, human phenotypes have changed over two generations, possibly more dramatically than in other species previously. As obesity is an important and growing hazard for population health, we recommend a systematic evaluation of the optimal measure(s) for population-level excess body fat. Ideal measure(s) for monitoring body composition and obesity should be simple, as accurate and sensitive as possible, and provide good categorization of related health risks. Combinations of anthropometric markers or predictive equations may facilitate better use of anthropometric data than single measures to estimate body composition for populations. Here, we provide new evidence that increasing proportions of aging populations are at high health-risk according to waist circumference, but not body mass index (BMI), so continued use of BMI as the principal population-level measure substantially underestimates the health-burden from excess adiposity.

  19. Linking physical monitoring to coho and Chinook salmon populations in the Redwood Creek Watershed, California—Summary of May 3–4, 2012 Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madej, Mary Ann; Torregrosa, Alicia; Woodward, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    On Thursday, May 3, 2012, a science workshop was held at the Redwood National and State Parks (RNSP) office in Arcata, California, with researchers and resource managers working in RNSP to share data and expert opinions concerning salmon populations and habitat in the Redwood Creek watershed. The focus of the workshop was to discuss how best to synthesize physical and biological data related to the freshwater and estuarine phases of salmon life cycles in order to increase the understanding of constraints on salmon populations. The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Status and Trends (S&T) Program National Park Monitoring Project (http://www.fort.usgs.gov/brdscience/ParkMonitoring.htm), which supports USGS research on priority topics (themes) identified by the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) and S&T. The NPS has organized more than 270 parks with significant natural resources into 32 Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Networks (http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/networks.cfm) that share funding and core professional staff to monitor the status and long-term trends of selected natural resources (http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor). All 32 networks have completed vital signs monitoring plans (available at http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor/MonitoringPlans.cfm), containing background information on the important resources of each park, conceptual models behind the selection of vital signs for monitoring the condition of natural resources, and the selection of high priority vital signs for monitoring. Vital signs are particular physical, chemical, and biological elements and processes of park ecosystems that represent the overall health or condition of the park, known or hypothesized effects of stressors, or elements that have important human values (Fancy and others, 2009). Beginning in 2009, the I&M program funded projects to analyze and synthesize the biotic and abiotic data generated by vital signs

  20. Alcohol policy changes and 22-year trends in individual alcohol consumption in a Swiss adult population: a 1993–2014 cross-sectional population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Shireen; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Favrod-Coune, Thierry; Theler, Jean-Marc; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Broers, Barbara; Guessous, Idris

    2017-01-01

    Objective Evidence on the impact of legislative changes on individual alcohol consumption is limited. Using an observational study design, we assessed trends in individual alcohol consumption of a Swiss adult population following the public policy changes that took place between 1993 and 2014, while considering individual characteristics and secular trends. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Swiss general adult population. Participants Data from 18 963 participants were collected between 1993 and 2014 (aged 18–75 years). Outcome measures We used data from the ‘Bus Santé’ study, an annual health survey conducted in random samples of the adult population in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Individual alcohol intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Individual characteristics including education were self-reported. 7 policy changes (6 about alcohol and 1 about tobacco) that occurred between 1993 and 2014 defined 6 different periods. We predicted alcohol intake using quantile regression with multivariate analysis for each period adjusting for participants' characteristics and tested significance periods. Sensitivity analysis was performed including drinkers only, the 10th centile of highest drinkers and smoker's status. Results Between 1993 and 2014, participants' individual alcohol intake decreased from 7.1 to 5.4 g/day (24% reduction, p<0.001). Men decreased their alcohol intake by 34% compared with 22% for women (p<0.001). The decrease in alcohol intake remained significant when considering drinkers only (28% decrease, p<0.001) and the 10th centile highest drinkers (24% decrease, p<0.001). Consumption of all alcoholic beverages decreased between 1993 and 2014 except for the moderate consumption of beer, which increased. After adjustment for participants' characteristics and secular trends, no independent association between alcohol legislative changes and individual alcohol intake was found. Conclusions Between 1993 and

  1. Passive sampling of wastewater as a tool for the long-term monitoring of community exposure: Illicit and prescription drug trends as a proof of concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baz-Lomba, J A; Harman, Christopher; Reid, Malcolm; Thomas, Kevin V

    2017-09-15

    A passive sampling device, the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS), was calibrated in-situ over a 4-week period in Oslo (Norway) for 10 illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals with the goal of developing an approach for monitoring long-term wastewater drug loads. The calibrations were performed in triplicate using three different overlapping calibration sets under changing environmental conditions that allowed the uncertainty of the sampling rates to be evaluated. All 10 compounds exhibited linear uptake kinetics and provided sampling rates of between 0.023 and 0.192 L d(-1). POCIS were deployed for consecutive 2-week periods during 2012 and 2013 and the calculated time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations used to define different drug use trends. The relative uncertainty related to the POCIS data was approximately 40% and, except for citalopram, 85% of all the long-term measurements of pharmaceuticals were within the confidence interval levels calculated to evaluate the effects of changing environmental conditions on the TWA estimations. POCIS was demonstrated to be sufficiently robust to provide reliable annual drug use estimates with a smaller number of samplers (n = 24) than recommended for active sampling (n = 56) within an acceptable level of sample size related uncertainty POCIS is demonstrated to be a valuable and reliable tool for the long-term monitoring of certain drugs and pharmaceuticals within a defined population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe : population based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khoshnood, Babak; Loane, Maria; de Walle, Hermien; Arriola, Larraitz; Addor, Marie-Claude; Barisic, Ingeborg; Beres, Judit; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Haeusler, Martin; Klungsoyr, Kari; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Bob; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J.; O'Mahony, Mary T.; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Sipek, Antonin; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2015-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for ma

  3. Trends and Implications of Proposed Changes to the "DSM-5" for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raissa; Prosek, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The revision process for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) has increased consciousness for the role of diagnosis in counseling. In this article, the authors discuss 3 trends of the proposed changes: the influence of the medical model, the attention to…

  4. Trends and Implications of Proposed Changes to the "DSM-5" for Vulnerable Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Raissa; Prosek, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    The revision process for the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) has increased consciousness for the role of diagnosis in counseling. In this article, the authors discuss 3 trends of the proposed changes: the influence of the medical model, the attention to…

  5. Northern fulmars as biological monitors of trends of plastic pollution in the eastern North Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avery-Gomm, Stephanie; O'Hara, Patrick D; Kleine, Lydia; Bowes, Victoria; Wilson, Laurie K; Barry, Karen L

    2012-09-01

    Marine plastic debris is a global issue, which highlights the need for internationally standardized methods of monitoring plastic pollution. The stomach contents of beached northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) have proven a cost-effective biomonitor in Europe. However, recent information on northern fulmar plastic ingestion is lacking in the North Pacific. We quantified the stomach contents of 67 fulmars from beaches in the eastern North Pacific in 2009-2010 and found that 92.5% of fulmars had ingested an average of 36.8 pieces, or 0.385 g of plastic. Plastic ingestion in these fulmars is among the highest recorded globally. Compared to earlier studies in the North Pacific, our findings indicate an increase in plastic ingestion over the past 40 years. This study substantiates the use of northern fulmar as biomonitors of plastic pollution in the North Pacific and suggests that the high levels of plastic pollution in this region warrant further monitoring.

  6. Non-Invasive Glucose Monitoring Techniques: A review and current trends

    CERN Document Server

    Poddar, Raju; Shukla, Pratyoosh; Sen, Pratima

    2008-01-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a complex group of syndromes that have in common a disturbance in the body's use of glucose, resulting in an elevated blood sugar. Once detected, sugar diabetes can be controlled by an appropriate regimen that should include diet therapy, a weight reduction program for those persons who are overweight, a program of exercise and insulin injections or oral drugs to lower blood glucose. Blood glucose monitoring by the patient and the physician is an important aspect in the control of the devastating complications (heart disease, blindness, kidney failure or amputations) due to the disease. Intensive therapy and frequent glucose testing has numerous benefits. With ever improving advances in diagnostic technology, the race for the next generation of bloodless, painless, accurate glucose instruments has begun. In this paper, we reviewed various methods, techniques and approaches successfully demonstrated for measuring or monitoring blood glucose. Invasive, minimally invasive and noninvasive tec...

  7. Breeding status, population trends and diets of seabirds in Alaska, 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report is the thirteenth in a series of annual reports summarizing the results of seabird monitoring efforts at breeding colonies on the Alaska Maritime...

  8. A Video Processing and Data Retrieval Framework for Fish Population Monitoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beauxis-Aussalet, E.M.A.L.; Palazzo, S.; Nadarajan, G.; Arslanova, E.; Spampinato, C.; Hardman, L.

    2013-01-01

    In this work we present a framework for fish population monitoring through the analysis of underwater videos. We specifically focus on the user information needs, and on the dynamic data extraction and retrieval mechanisms that support them. Sophisticated though a software tool may be, it is ultimat

  9. A Video Processing and Data Retrieval Framework for Fish Population Monitoring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.M.A.L. Beauxis-Aussalet (Emmanuelle); S. Palazzo; G. Nadarajan; E. Arslanova (Elvira); C. Spampinato (Concetto); L. Hardman (Lynda)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractIn this work we present a framework for fish population monitoring through the analysis of underwater videos. We specifically focus on the user information needs, and on the dynamic data extraction and retrieval mechanisms that support them. Sophisticated though a software tool may be, i

  10. Long term demographic monitoring of wader populations in non-breeding areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, Robert A.; Clark, Nigel A.; Lanctot, Richard; Nebel, Silke; Harrington, Brian; Clark, Jacquie A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Meltofte, Hans; Rogers, Danny I.; Rogers, Ken G.; Ens, Bruno J.; Reynolds, Christopher M.; Ward, Robin M.; Piersma, Theunis; Atkinson, Philip W.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding numeric changes in wader populations requires knowledge of the demographic parameters underlying such changes, i.e. survival and recruitment. Data from long-term monitoring programmes are crucial for obtaining these parameters. Following discussions held at a workshop on demographic mo

  11. The role of population monitoring in the management of North American waterfowl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.D.; Williams, B.K.; Johnson, F.A.

    2000-01-01

    Despite the effort and expense devoted to large-scale monitoring programs, few existing programs have been designed with specific objectives in mind and few permit strong inferences about the dynamics of monitored systems. The waterfowl population monitoring programs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service and state and provincial agencies provide a nice example with respect to program objectives, design and implementation. The May Breeding Grounds Survey provides an estimate of system state (population size) that serves two primary purposes in the adaptive management process: identifying the appropriate time-specific management actions and updating the information state (model weights) by providing a basis for evaluating predictions of competing models. Other waterfowl monitoring programs (e.g., banding program, hunter questionnaire survey, parts collection survey, winter survey) provide estimates of vital rates (rates of survival, reproduction and movement) associated with system dynamics and variables associated with management objectives (e.g., harvest). The reliability of estimates resulting from monitoring programs depends strongly on whether considerations about spatial variation and detection probability have been adequately incorporated into program design and implementation. Certain waterfowl surveys again provide nice examples of monitoring programs that incorporate these considerations.

  12. [Monitoring populations of rodent reservoirs of zoonotic diseases. Projects, aims and results].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, J; Ulrich, R G; Freise, J; Schmolz, E

    2014-05-01

    Rodents can harbor and transmit pathogens that can cause severe disease in humans, companion animals and livestock. Such zoonotic pathogens comprise more than two thirds of the currently known human pathogens. The epidemiology of some zoonotic pathogens, such as hantaviruses, can be linked to the population dynamics of the rodent host. In this case, during an outbreak of the rodent host population many human infections may occur. In other rodent-borne zoonotic diseases such phenomena are not known and in many cases the rodent host specificity of a given pathogen is unclear. The monitoring of relevant rodent populations and of the rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens is essential to (1) understand the distribution and epidemiology of pathogens and (2) develop forecasting tools to predict outbreaks of zoonoses. Presently, there are no systematic long-term monitoring programs in place for zoonoses in Germany. Rodent monitoring activities are largely restricted to the plant protection sector, such as for the common vole (Microtus arvalis) and forest-damaging rodents. However, during the last 10-15 years a number of specific research projects have been initiated and run for a few years and Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) monitoring has been implemented in Hamburg and Lower Saxony. Based on close cooperation of federal and state authorities and research institutions these efforts could be utilized to gain information about the distribution and importance of rodent-borne zoonoses. Nevertheless, for the integration of rodent population dynamics and zoonotic disease patterns and especially for developing predictive models, long-term monitoring is urgently required. To establish a systematic long-term monitoring program, existing networks and cooperation need to be used, additional collaborators (e.g., pest control operators) should be included and synergetic effects of different scientific fields should be utilized.

  13. Socioeconomic status and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Gerdes, Lars Ulrik; Davidsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    in cardiovascular risk factors in different educational groups. DESIGN: Data from three cross sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92, were analysed to estimate trends in biological (weight, height, body mass index, blood pressure, and serum lipids) and behavioural (smoking, physical......STUDY OBJECTIVE: The decline in cardiovascular mortality in Denmark during the 1980s has been greatest in the highest socioeconomic groups of the population. This study examines whether the increased social inequality in cardiovascular mortality has been accompanied by a different trend...... activity during leisure, and eating habits) risk factors in relation to educational status. SETTING: County of Copenhagen, Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 6695 Danish men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years. MAIN RESULTS: The prevalence of smoking and heavy smoking decreased during the study but only...

  14. Trends in incidence, case-fatality and recurrence of myocardial infarction in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1991

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, M; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Jørgensen, Torben;

    2001-01-01

    was to assess trends in the incidence, case-fatality and recurrence rate of MI and to analyse whether any changes seen were due to a period or a cohort effect. METHODS: The Danish MONICA population comprises all men and women aged 25-74 years in the period 1982-1991 living in a suburban area of Copenhagen......, Denmark. Fatal and non-fatal attacks classified as definite MI and non-fatal attacks classified as possible MI were included. The incidence rate was analysed by Poisson regression, the case-fatality rate by logistic regression, and the rate of recurrence by Cox regression. Age-period-cohort analyses were...... or cohort effect. The rate of case-fatality after a first MI was not changed significantly during the period, whereas men and women had different trends in case-fatality after recurrent MI. CONCLUSIONS: In accordance with results from other Western countries we found a decline in the incidence...

  15. Latino Population Growth, Demographic Characteristics, and Educational Stagnation: An Examination of Recent Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapa, Jorge; Valencia, Richard R.

    1993-01-01

    Presents data on rapid growth of the Latino population during the 1980s. Outlines ethnic and racial differences in educational attainment, family income, language status, age distribution, and other demographic variables. Discusses the impact of school segregation, growth of youth population, and low socioeconomic status on Latino access to…

  16. MONITORING AND MODELING OF THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina U. Archipova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to monitoring of the scientific sphere in Russia in comparison to thedeveloped countries. Attention is paid especially to analysis of interrelation between scientifi c researches costs and the results of scientifi c activity,as well as to the modeling of innovative activityin Russia on the based on the systems of therecursive simultaneous equations. The conductedresearch allows to follow the diffusion of scientific knowledge and their influence on innovative activity in the country.

  17. Julia Butler Hansen NWR: Initial Survey Instructions for Columbian White-tailed Deer MonitoringPopulation Status Protocol

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Recovery of the lower Columbia population of Columbian White-tailed Deer (CWTD) relies on specific population goals. As such, monitoring programs cannot be based on...

  18. Socioeconomic status and trends in alcohol drinking in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-92

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Jørgensen, Torben; Grønbaek, M;

    2001-01-01

    of education, age and smoking. In total, 6,695 Danish men and women aged 30, 40, 50, and 60 years were included. RESULTS: Alcohol drinking decreased in both men and women during the study period, but changes were only significant among the highest educated. In the highest educated men the prevalence......AIMS: To examine trends in alcohol drinking in different educational groups. METHODS: Data from three cross-sectional WHO MONICA surveys conducted in 1982-84, 1987, and 1991-92 were analysed to estimate trends in abstention, moderate, heavy, and sporadic heavy alcohol use in relation to level...... of moderate alcohol use increased from 77 to 82%, while heavy alcohol use declined from 19 to 12%. In the highest educated women the prevalence of abstention increased from 15 to 22%, while moderate alcohol use declined from 78 to 68%. CONCLUSION: During the 1980s, alcohol drinking decreased among the highest...

  19. Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.;

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...... comparisons over time. This model may in its simplicity prove to be a valuable supplement to assessments of national preterm delivery rates for public health surveillance Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

  20. Declining trends in prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection by birth-year in a Japanese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Miki; Ito, Hidemi; Hosono, Satoyo; Oze, Isao; Ashida, Chieko; Tajima, Kazuo; Katoh, Hisato; Matsuo, Keitaro; Tanaka, Hideo

    2015-12-01

    Gastric cancer incidence and mortality have been decreasing in Japan. These decreases are likely due to a decrease in prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection. Our aim was to characterize the trends in prevalence of H. pylori infection focused on birth-year. We carried out a cross-sectional study that included 4285 subjects who were born from 1926 to 1989. We defined H. pylori infection by the serum H. pylori antibody titer. Individuals having H. pylori infection and those with negative H. pylori antibody titer and positive pepsinogen test were defined as high-risk individuals for gastric cancer. We estimated the birth-year percent change (BPC) of the prevalence by Joinpoint regression analysis. The prevalence of H. pylori infection among the subjects born from 1927 to 1949 decreased from 54.0% to 42.0% with a BPC of -1.2%. It was followed by a rapid decline in those born between 1949 (42.0%) and 1961 (24.0%) with a BPC of -4.5%, which was followed by those born between 1961 (24.0%) and 1988 (14.0%) with a BPC of -2.1%. The proportion of high-risk individuals for gastric cancer among the subjects born from 1927 to 1942 decreased from 62.0% to 55.0% with a BPC of -0.8%. A subsequent rapid declining trend was observed in those born between 1942 (55.0%) and 1972 (18.0%) with a BPC of -3.6%, and then it became stable. These remarkable declining trends in the prevalence of H. pylori infection by birth-year would be useful to predict the future trend in gastric cancer incidence in Japan.

  1. Trend of non-communicable disease mortality for three common conditions in the elderly population from 2002 to 2010: A population-based study in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian Li; Jin Guo; Xiao-Qing Cao; Xin Yuan; Ke-Qin Rao; Zhe Zheng; Zhi-Dong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Objective: There is a lack of data focusing on non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality in the Chinese elderly population over the past decade.Methods: Using mortality data from the Chinese Health Statistics, we explored the crude and age-standardized mortality trend of three major NCDs in the Chinese population ≥65 years of age from 2002 to 2010, namely, malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, and cerebrovascular diseases.Subpopulations characterized as rural and urban residence, and by gender and age were examined separately.Results: Mortality increased with age and was higher among males than among females across the three NCDs, with the gender difference being most remarkable for malignant neoplasms and least for heart diseases mortality.Condition-specific crude mortalities increased between 2002 and 2010, overall and in all the pre-specified subpopulations.After age-standardization, rising trends were observed for people ≥65 years old, and condition-specific mortalities generally increased in rural regions and decreased in urban regions, especially for cerebrovascular diseases.Conclusions: There were increasing trends for mortality due to malignant neoplasms, heart diseases, and cerebrovascular diseases in China between 2002 and 2010, which were largely driven by the population aging.Disparities existed by rural and urban residence, gender, and age.Copyright 2015, Chinese Medical Association Production.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

  2. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50-90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50-64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process.

  3. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Steiber

    Full Text Available This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50-90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age. This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50-64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process.

  4. Cutaneous melanoma frequencies and seasonal trend in 20 years of observation of a population characterised by excessive sun exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonin, Serena; Albano, Antonio; di Meo, Nicola; Gatti, Alessandro; Stinco, Giuseppe; Zanconati, Fabrizio; Trevisan, Giusto

    2015-01-01

    Background Cutaneous melanoma is an aggressive form of skin cancer. It has become an increasingly common neoplasm in the most developed countries, especially among individuals of European origin. Patients and methods. Anonymous data of patients with cutaneous melanoma were collected from the diagnostic database of the University Hospital of Trieste from 1 January 1990 to 10 December 2013. Our study is based on a population which was constant over the period of observation; it was also well-defined and characterised by unrestrained sun exposure. Results The number of cutaneous melanomas increased during the period of observation with a seasonality trend and gender related differences both for anatomical sites distribution and stage of the disease. Moreover, 6% of our cohort developed multiple melanomas. Conclusions In a well-defined population devoted to excessive sun exposure the frequencies of skin melanomas roughly doubled from 1990 to 2013 following a seasonal trend. In that population, prevention efforts according to gender specific risk behaviour, as well as follow-up programmes both for evaluation of metastatic spreading and for early diagnosis of additional skin melanomas, are crucial due to gender specific differences and to the occurrence of multiple melanomas. PMID:26834525

  5. Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

    2016-05-31

    Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

  6. Can we monitor heart attack in the troponin era: evidence from a population-based cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rankin Jamie M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Troponins (highly sensitive biomarkers of myocardial damage increase counts of myocardial infarction (MI in clinical practice, but their impact on trends in admission rates for MI in National statistics is uncertain. Methods Cases coded as MI or other cardiac diagnoses in the Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (MI-HMDC in Western Australia in 1998 and 2003 were classified using revised criteria for MI developed by an International panel convened by the American Heart Association (AHA criteria using information on symptoms, ECGs and cardiac biomarkers abstracted from samples of medical notes. Age-sex standardized rates of MI-HMDC were compared with rates of MI based on AHA criteria including troponins (MI-AHA or traditional biomarkers only (MI-AHAck. Results Between 1998 and 2003, rates of MI-HMDC decreased by 3.5% whereas rates of MI-AHA increased by 17%, a difference largely due to increased false-negative cases in the HMDC associated with marked increased use of troponin tests in cardiac admissions generally, and progressively lower test thresholds. In contrast, rates of MI-AHAck declined by 18%. Conclusions Increasing misclassification of MI-AHA by the HMDC may be due to reluctance by clinicians to diagnose MI based on relatively small increases in troponin levels. These influences are likely to continue. Monitoring MI using AHA criteria will require calibration of commercially available troponin tests and agreement on lower diagnostic thresholds for epidemiological studies. Declining rates of MI-AHAck are consistent with long-standing trends in MI in Western Australia, suggesting that neither MI-HMDC nor MI-AHA reflect the true underlying population trends in MI.

  7. Estimating Trends of Population Decline in Long-Lived Marine Species in the Mediterranean Sea Based on Fishers' Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo; Maravelias, Christos; Kavadas, Stefanos; Damalas, Dimitros; Cartes, Joan E.; Osio, Giacomo

    2011-01-01

    We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods) compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery). The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional) of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase). This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales) were at very low levels in the second half of the 20th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades) of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species. PMID:21818268

  8. REGIONAL TRENDS IN THE WORKING-AGE POPULATION MORTALITY RATE IN THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA) IN 1990-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanova, A A; Kakorina, E P; Timofeev, L F; Potapov, A F; Aprosimov, L A

    2015-01-01

    Regions of the Russian Federation differ in climatic-geographic, medical-demographic and social-economic situations. One of the regions with distinct peculiarities is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Ranking first by the territory (3,103.2 thousand sq x km), Yakutia is on the 81th place by the population density among regions of the Russian Federation (0.3 people per 1 km2).Yakutia is one of the most isolated and inaccessible regions of the world: 90% of the territory lacks all-the-year-round transportation. Regions of the republic, as well, differ significantly in the climatic conditions and the levels of social-economic development, which influences the population health indicators, including mortality. This survey aimed to study the trends of mortality in the working-age population in different groups of regions. To do this, basing on the statistical data, we compared the levels, trends and structure of mortality in 1990-2012. It was established that the different groups of regions show a significant variation in the working-age population mortality, depending on the social-economic conditions. Since 2000, the Arctic group of regions has demonstrated higher mortality in working-age men and women, especially of cardiovascular and digestive system diseases, and external causes. Lying beyond the Arctic Circle, these regions have severe conditions and a relatively low level of social-economic development. As for the rural regions, despite the relatively favourabe situation, they also show a high level of mortality of external causes. The industrial regions are characterized by higher social-economic development, better transport infrastructure, a satisfactory material base of medical institutions. They also have sufficient resources of health institutions, including the staff and modern equipment for treatment and diagnostics, as well as, which is critical, the full range of medical specialists. Thus, these regions demonstrate lower population mortality; however

  9. Orbital monitoring of the Brazilian pasturelands: patterns, trends and potential ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, L. G.; Parente, L. L.; Arantes, A. E.; Araujo, F. M.; Brito, J. S.; Nogueira, S.; Faria, A. S.; Santos, A.; Ferreira, M. E.; Silva, J. R.; Rufino, L., Jr.; Vieira, P.; Silva, W. C.; Stefani, F.; Veloso, G.; Nogueira, L.; Aguado, O. O.

    2015-12-01

    In Brazil, where cultivated pastures constitute the dominant land use form, cattle ranching intensification plays a major role towards more environmentally sustainable agricultural practices, through its potential for mitigating GHG emissions, as well as by making available cost-effective land reserve for other uses. However, environmentally sustainable livestock intensification, one of the key goals pursued by Plano ABC (the federal government low carbon agriculture plan), strongly depends on our ability to more precisely identify pasture conditions, improvement needs, and the respective cattle support capacities. To this end, and with the support of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, we have concentrated efforts in order to have: 1) a more detailed and updated map of the brazilian pasturelands; 2) a thorough biophysical differentiation of these pastures according to degradation stages / forage levels; and 3) an estimation of overall pasture productivity trends. Our initial estimates, based on the interpretation of satellite and census data, suggest that as much as 50% of the total grazing area in Brazil (about 170 Mhectares) are moderately or severely affected by soil-plant degradation. On the other hand, our preliminary results also corroborate the enormous potential of well managed pastures to positively impact carbon and water fluxes. Based on satellite data and pasture samples from large and productive cattle ranch operations in the central savanna biome in Brazil (Cerrado), we estimated total growing season (October to April) biomass and evapotranspiration to correspond to 9 Gt of carbon and 420 Gt of water, respectively.

  10. Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

    2014-01-01

    Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are

  11. Monitoring trends in civil engineering and their effect on indoor radon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringer, W

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the importance of monitoring new building concepts is discussed. The effect of energy-efficient construction technologies on indoor radon is presented in more detail. Comparing the radon levels of about 100 low-energy and passive houses in Austria with radon levels in conventional new houses show that, in energy-efficient new houses, the radon level is about one-third lower than in conventional new houses. Nevertheless, certain features or bad practice may cause high radon levels in energy-efficient new houses. Recommendations to avoid adverse effects were set up. Furthermore, the paper deals with the effect of thermal retrofitting on indoor radon. Results from a Swiss study where 163 dwellings were measured before and after thermal retrofit yield an increase of the radon level of 26% in average. Among the various retrofit measures, replacing windows has the greatest impact on the indoor radon level.

  12. Recent trends in SELEX technique and its application to food safety monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jingjing; Zhu, Yingyue; Xue, Feng; Mei, Zhanlong; Yao, Li; Wang, Xin; Zheng, Lei; Liu, Jian; Liu, Guodong; Peng, Chifang; Chen, Wei

    2014-04-01

    The method referred to as "systemic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment" (SELEX) was introduced in 1990 and ever since has become an important tool for the identification and screening of aptamers. Such nucleic acids can recognize and bind to their corresponding targets (analytes) with high selectivity and affinity, and aptamers therefore have become attractive alternatives to traditional antibodies not the least because they are much more stable. Meanwhile, they have found numerous applications in different fields including food quality and safety monitoring. This review first gives an introduction into the selection process and to the evolution of SELEX, then covers applications of aptamers in the surveillance of food safety (with subsections on absorptiometric, electrochemical, fluorescent and other methods), and then gives conclusions and perspectives. The SELEX method excels by its features of in vitro, high throughput and ease of operation. This review contains 86 references.

  13. Monitoring in the Western Pacific region shows evidence of seagrass decline in line with global trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, Frederick T; Coles, Robert; Fortes, Miguel D; Victor, Steven; Salik, Maxwell; Isnain, Irwan; Andrew, Jay; Seno, Aganto

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass systems of the Western Pacific region are biodiverse habitats, providing vital services to ecosystems and humans over a vast geographic range. SeagrassNet is a worldwide monitoring program that collects data on seagrass habitats, including the ten locations across the Western Pacific reported here where change at various scales was rapidly detected. Three sites remote from human influence were stable. Seagrasses declined largely due to increased nutrient loading (4 sites) and increased sedimentation (3 sites), the two most common stressors of seagrass worldwide. Two sites experienced near-total loss from of excess sedimentation, followed by partial recovery once sedimentation was reduced. Species shifts were observed at every site with recovering sites colonized by pioneer species. Regulation of watersheds is essential if marine protected areas are to preserve seagrass meadows. Seagrasses in the Western Pacific experience stress due to human impacts despite the vastness of the ocean area and low development pressures.

  14. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  15. Trends and determinant factors in hypertension control in a population study with 25 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The present study focused on trend in hypertension control and on determinant factors that may influence efficacy in antihypertensive therapy. Two measures of treatment efficacy were used: population blood pressure and the relative frequency of effectively treated patients (blood...... pressure hypertensive patients. The blood pressure measurement was fully standardized and measurement method was unchanged...... throughout the observation period. A questionnaire was completed by the participants and double-checked by the technicians. RESULTS: The number of treated hypertensive patients increased considerably and hypertension control increased from 21 to 26%. Pretreatment SBP was stable in the observation period...

  16. Population trends and survival of nesting green sea turtles Chelonia mydas on Aves Island, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Cruz, Marco A.; Lampo, Margarita; Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William; Solé, Genaro; Rodriguez-Clark, Kathryn M.

    2015-01-01

    Long-term demographic data are valuable for assessing the effect of anthropogenic impacts on endangered species and evaluating recovery programs. Using a 2-state open robust design model, we analyzed mark-recapture data from green turtles Chelonia mydas sighted between 1979 and 2009 on Aves Island, Venezuela, a rookery heavily impacted by human activities before it was declared a wildlife refuge in 1972. Based on the encounter histories of 7689 nesting females, we estimated the abundance, annual survival, and remigration intervals for this population. Female survival varied from 0.14-0.91, with a mean of 0.79, which is low compared to survival of other populations from the Caribbean (mean = 0.84) and Australia (mean = 0.95), even though we partially corrected for tag loss, which is known to negatively bias survival estimates. This supports prior suggestions that Caribbean populations in general, and the Aves Island population in particular, may be more strongly impacted than populations elsewhere. It is likely that nesters from this rookery are extracted while foraging in remote feeding grounds where hunting still occurs. Despite its relatively low survival, the nesting population at Aves Island increased during the past 30 years from approx. 500 to >1000 nesting females in 2009. Thus, this population, like others in the Caribbean and the Atlantic, seems to be slowly recovering following protective management. Although these findings support the importance of long-term conservation programs aimed at protecting nesting grounds, they also highlight the need to extend management actions to foraging grounds where human activities may still impact green turtle populations.

  17. Trends and corresponding policies related to population, resources, environment and economic development in northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Z; Zhu, L

    1994-01-01

    A model is presented of the interaction between population, resources, environment, and the economic system in the northwest region of China. Population pressure is yielding important impacts on the environment. Development should be guided by effective population control and continuous agricultural development. Alternative strategies include: 1) Identify effective ways to curb population growth, e.g., investment in social and economic development, and formation of a social environment with social security assurances conducive to population control. Public campaigns need to address the links between poverty and population, to awaken people's sense of responsibility, and to change people's desire for more children. 2) Give education a priority as a means of upgrading the quality of rural labor. Mass media must popularize elementary school education and nine years of education. 3) Encourage migration out of the northwest. 4) Use technology to protect and correct land resources. Local regulations are needed on land management to guarantee proper planning, use, protection, and conservation of land. 5) Upgrade agricultural structures, develop forestry and grasslands, protect water and soil, and improve the ecological conditions. 6) Invest capital in such farm constructions as irrigation systems. 7) Increase investments in agriculture in order to assure productivity and reserves and to speed the transition to modern agricultural practices. 8) Raise land efficiency by increasing imports of grain and cereals from outside the region. 9) Develop township enterprises and the rural economy.

  18. Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Behavioural risk factors in two generations of non-Western migrants: do trends converge towards the host population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosper, Karen; Nierkens, Vera; Nicolaou, Mary; Stronks, Karien

    2007-01-01

    Migrant mortality does not conform to a single pattern of convergence towards prevalence rates in the host population. To understand better how migrant mortality develops, it is necessary to further investigate how the underlying behavioural determinants change following migration. We studied whether the prevalence of behavioural risk factors over two generations of Turkish and Moroccan migrants converge towards the prevalence rates in the Dutch population. From a random sample from the population register of Amsterdam, 291 Moroccan and 505 Turkish migrants, aged 15-30, participated in a structured interview that included questions on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and weight/height. Data from the Dutch population were available from Statistics Netherlands. By calculating age-adjusted Odds Ratio's, prevalence rates among both generations were compared with prevalence rates in the host population for men and women separately. We found indications of convergence across generations towards the prevalence rates in the host population for smoking in Turkish men, for overweight in Turkish and Moroccan women and for physical inactivity in Turkish women. Alcohol consumption, however, remained low in all subgroups and did not converge towards the higher rates in the host population. In addition, we found a reversed trend among Turkish women regarding smoking: the second generation smoked significantly more, while the first generation did not differ from ethnic Dutch. In general, behavioural risk factors in two generations of non-Western migrants in the Netherlands seem to converge towards the prevalence rates in the Dutch population. However, some subgroups and risk factors showed a different pattern.

  20. Seasonal trends of spectral indexes for monitoring GPP in a Mediterranean cork oak savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerasoli, S.; Silva, J. M. N.; Carvalhais, N.; Silva, F.; López, G.; Pereira, J. M. C.; Pereira, J. S.

    2012-04-01

    It is nowadays clear that the inclusion of spectral indexes into biogeochemical models can greatly improve actual estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) at local and global scale. Several vegetation indexes can be obtained by the reflectance of light at specific wavelengths. Among them, the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) were found suitable to represent different characteristics of ecosystems strictly related with GPP, such as biomass and photosynthetic capacity (NDVI, EVI) or radiation use efficiency (PRI). In Mediterranean cork oak savannas, characterized by high heterogeneity, the application of spectral indexes derived from coarse spatial resolution remotely sensed data (e.g. MODIS imagery) to represent the performance of the whole ecosystem is complex. A better knowledge of the variability of vegetation indexes for specific vegetation types, assessed in fieldwork, is fundamental to the interpretation of the same indexes obtained with satellite data and a key step through the integration of such indexes into biogeochemical models. We consider three different vegetation types: trees, grasses and shrubs, concurring to the overall ecosystem carbon budget in Mediterranean cork oak savannas. Since April 2011, reflectance measurements were performed in the range of 300-2500nm by the use of a handheld hyperspectral spectroradiometer (FieldSpec3, ASD Inc. CO, USA) in several species of the three vegetation types in a cork oak savanna eddy covariance site located in central Portugal. Measurements were always performed around solar noon and repeated approximately every two weeks. Several vegetation indexes were calculated. All indexes showed clear differences among vegetation types and among species. Marked seasonal trends were identified for grasses and shrubs, clearly related with the onset of dry summer conditions. Both NDVI and EVI decreased in grasses from April to the

  1. Population size and trends for nesting ospreys in northwestern Mexico: Region-wide surveys, 1977, 1992/1993 and 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henny, Charles J.; Anderson, Daniel W.; Vera, Aradit Castellanos; Carton, Jean-Luc E.

    2007-01-01

    We used a double-sampling technique (air plus ground survey) in 2006, with partial double coverage, to estimate the present size of the osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting population in northwestern Mexico. With the exception of Natividad, Cedros, and San Benito Islands along the Pacific Coast of Baja California, all three excluded from our coverage in 2006 due to fog, this survey was a repeat of previous surveys conducted by us with the same protocol in 1977 and 1992/1993 (Baja California surveyed in 1992, Sonora and Sinaloa 1993), allowing for estimates of regional population trends. Population estimates at the 'time of aerial survey' include those nesting, but missed from the air. The population estimate for our coverage area in 2006 was 1,343 nesting pairs, or an 81% increase since 1977, but only a 3% increase since 1992/1993. The population on the Gulf side of Baja California generally remained stable during the three surveys (255, 236 and 252 pairs, respectively). The overall Midriff Islands population remained similar from 1992/1993 (308 pairs) to 2006 (289 pairs), but with notable population changes on the largest two islands (Isla Angel de la Guarda: 45 to 105 pairs [+ 60 pairs]; Isla Tiburon: 164 to 109 pairs [- 55 pairs, or -34%]). The estimated osprey population on the Sonora mainland decreased in a manner similar to adjacent Isla Tiburon, i.e., by 26%, from 214 pairs in 1993 to 158 pairs in 2006. In contrast, the population in Sinaloa, which had increased by 150% between 1977 and 1993, grew again by 58% between 1993 and 2006, from 180 to 285 pairs. Our survey confirmed previously described patterns of rapid population changes at a local level, coupled with apparent shifts in spatial distribution. The large ground nesting population that until recently nested on two islands in San Ignacio Lagoon was no longer present on the islands in 2006, but an equivalent number of pairs were found to the north and south of the lagoon, nesting in small towns and along

  2. Benchmarking of hospital information systems: Monitoring of discharge letters and scheduling can reveal heterogeneities and time trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckholt Markus

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Monitoring of hospital information system (HIS usage can provide insights into best practices within a hospital and help to assess time trends. In terms of effort and cost of benchmarking, figures derived automatically from the routine HIS system are preferable to manual methods like surveys, in particular for repeated analysis. Methods Due to relevance for quality management and efficient resource utilization we focused on time-to-completion of discharge letters (assessed by CT-plots and usage of patient scheduling. We analyzed these parameters monthly during one year at a major university hospital in Germany. Results We found several distinct patterns of discharge letter documentation indicating a large heterogeneity of HIS usage between different specialties (completeness 51 – 99%, delays 0 – 90 days. Overall usage of scheduling increased during the observation period by 62%, but again showed a considerable variation between departments. Conclusion Regular monitoring of HIS key figures can contribute to a continuous HIS improvement process.

  3. Below population replacement fertility rates:Can assisted reproductive technology (ART) help reverse the trend?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Eric Blyth

    2013-01-01

    Objective: This paper considers the potential contribution that assisted reproductive technology (ART) may make to population replenishment in countries that have experienced extended periods of below-population-replacement Total Fertility Rates (TFR), by focusing on the specific situation of Singapore, which has recorded ‘ultra-low’ TFRs for many years. Methods: The factors contributing to ultra-low TFRs in Singapore, the economic and social consequences of endemic below-population-replacement fertility rates and remedial measures initiated by the government are critically analysed, focussing specifically on the government’s subsided ART provisions of the ‘Marriage and Parenthood’ package. In addition the paper provides a close analysis of available contemporary data regarding ART and ART outcomes both in Singapore and internationally. Results: Despite limited public accessibility to data concerning ART outcomes in Singapore, it is possible to make some assessment of the potential contribution of publicly-funded ART provision and the possible extension of access to elective oocyte preservation to population replenishment. Conclusions: Subsidised ART can-at best-make a marginal contribution to government population policy.

  4. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret W. Miller

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis, A. palmata to a much lesser extent in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha, low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005–2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 –0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x. Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  5. Reef-scale trends in Florida Acropora spp. abundance and the effects of population enhancement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Margaret W; Kerr, Katryna; Williams, Dana E

    2016-01-01

    Since the listing of Acropora palmata and A. cervicornis under the US Endangered Species Act in 2006, increasing investments have been made in propagation of listed corals (primarily A. cervicornis, A. palmata to a much lesser extent) in offshore coral nurseries and outplanting cultured fragments to reef habitats. This investment is superimposed over a spatiotemporal patchwork of ongoing disturbances (especially storms, thermal bleaching, and disease) as well as the potential for natural population recovery. In 2014 and 2015, we repeated broad scale (>50 ha), low precision Acropora spp. censuses (i.e., direct observation by snorkelers documented via handheld GPS) originally conducted in appropriate reef habitats during 2005-2007 to evaluate the trajectory of local populations and the effect of population enhancement. Over the decade-long study, A. palmata showed a cumulative proportional decline of 0.4 -0.7x in colony density across all sites, despite very low levels of outplanting at some sites. A. cervicornis showed similar proportional declines at sites without outplanting. In contrast, sites that received A. cervicornis outplants showed a dramatic increase in density (over 13x). Indeed, change in A. cervicornis colony density was significantly positively correlated with cumulative numbers of outplants across sites. This study documents a substantive reef-scale benefit of Acropora spp. population enhancement in the Florida Keys, when performed at adequate levels, against a backdrop of ongoing population decline.

  6. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-09-21

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Biannual monitoring of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility in Danish pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Caroline; Kristensen, Michael; Jensen, Karl-Martin Vagn

    2015-01-01

    The pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) is a serious pest in the northern countries in oilseed rape. To determine the present level of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility of Danish pollen beetle populations, standardized methods recommended by IRAC (Insecticide Resistance Action Committee......) were used. Pollen beetle populations were collected from 47 locations of Denmark with the help of the consultants and the farmers of the various regions in 2014. Further six populations were tested from Sweden and one from Germany. In the following year 2015, the monitoring continued to find out......, if the resistance level which was determined in 2014 was stable in selected regions. Therefore pollen beetle populations from 14 locations in Denmark and five locations in Germany have been tested. For all tests the standardised methods for pyrethroids, the Adult-vial-test No. 11 and the Adult-vials-test No. 21...

  8. Basic trends of game mammal population dynamics in the Russian Middle Amur river area: the observation and simulation results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ya. Frisman

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The detailed analysis was completed on long­term population dynamics data of different game mammals conducted in the region of the Middle Amur. The study showed that when a certain stability of the majority of the total number of game animals throughout the Jewish Autonomous Region (the coefficient of Malthus model for the entire period of observation a little more than 1, except for the lynx, kolinsky and squirrel from the mid 90s of the last century indicates a steady downward trend in population numbers, especially in areas where hunting occurs (Malthus model coefficients less than 1. Perhaps the reason for the decline was the increase in the amount of poaching in the 90s due to the deteriorating socio­economic situation in the country. Impression of a certain stability in the JAR as a whole due to the position of animals in protected areas. For all considered commercial species in the reserve there is a clear tendency for the number. For such species as the kolinsky, squirrel and bears, the maximum possible model number lower than the maximum number of accounting was observed during the study period. For populations of other game animals it can be assumed that the status of their ecological niches, i.e. habitat resources (supply of food, the size of the range, availability and propagation of the growth of the offspring, etc. are relatively stable. The relation between the amount of natural reproduction of «local» populations and their replenishment quantities due to external migration was studied in detail. Maintaining the number of target species is determined by migratory activity. The presence of protected areas helps to maintain and even some increase the population numbers, but it is clearly insufficient. It’s necessary to expand the territories free from the hunt and the transition to the strategies of hard periodic limitations of hunting populations experiencing depressive mode of population dynamics.

  9. Current situation and population trend of the lesser spotted eagle (Aquila pomarina in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pongrácz Ádám

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Prvé správy o velkosti populácie orla kriklavého v Madarsku sa objavili v rokoch 1978 až 1982. Na základe týchto údajov odhadujeme, že ich populácia bola vtedy tvorená asi 90 pármi. Do roku 2014 sa tento pocet znížil pod 40 párov. Druh zmizol z jeho predošlých hniezdísk v nížinách, z lužných lesov a tiež z niekolkých pahorkatinných a horských oblastí. Príciny úbytku jeho populácie v Madarsku sa zdajú byt komplexné. Zmeny v polnohospodárstve pokladáme za jeden z hlavných dôvodov tohto úbytku, co aj diskutujeme v tomto príspevku. Predpokladáme, že populácie jeho koristi boli tiež negatívne ovplyvnené. Úbytok nenarušených lesných porastov starších než 100 rokov je pravdepodobne tiež významným faktorom v hniezdnych habitatoch. Kedže madarská populácia orla kriklavého je populáciou na okraji areálu rozšírenia, je velmi závislá na väcších populáciách v okolitých krajinách; tiež je ovplyvnená mortalitou pocas migrácie. Pozitívne zmeny vo využívaní polnohospodárskej pôdy v posledných štyroch rokoch už spôsobili mierny nárast pocetnosti populácie. V blízkej budúcnosti by malo byt hlavnou úlohou zavedenie osobitného režimu dotácií, zacieleného na kvalitu potravných habitatov druhu.

  10. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  11. Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

  12. Trends in the population prevalence of people who inject drugs in US metropolitan areas 1992-2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Tempalski

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs (PWID have increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We update and present estimates and trends of the prevalence of current PWID and PWID subpopulations in 96 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs for 1992-2007. Current estimates of PWID and PWID subpopulations will help target services and help to understand long-term health trends among PWID populations. METHODOLOGY: We calculated the number of PWID in the US annually from 1992-2007 and apportioned estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. We used four types of data indicating drug injection to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of component estimates of PWID in each MSA and year. The four component estimates are averaged to create the best estimate of PWID for each MSA and year. We estimated PWID prevalence rates for three subpopulations defined by gender, age, and race/ethnicity. We evaluated trends using multi-level polynomial models. RESULTS: PWID per 10,000 persons aged 15-64 years varied across MSAs from 31 to 345 in 1992 (median 104.4 to 34 to 324 in 2007 (median 91.5. Trend analysis indicates that this rate declined during the early period and then was relatively stable in 2002-2007. Overall prevalence rates for non-Hispanic black PWID increased in 2005 as compared to other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanic prevalence, in contrast, declined across time. Importantly, results show a worrisome trend in young PWID prevalence since HAART was initiated--the mean prevalence was 90 to 100 per 10,000 youth in 1992-1996, but increased to >120 PWID per 10,000 youth in 2006-2007. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, PWID rates remained constant since 2002, but increased for two subpopulations: non-Hispanic black PWID and young PWID. Estimates of PWID are important for planning and evaluating public health programs to reduce harm among PWID and for understanding related trends in social and health outcomes.

  13. Monitoring trends of urban development and environmental impact of Beijing, 1999-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gengyuan; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin; Ulgiati, Sergio

    2011-08-15

    The high rates of environmental change and accelerated species loss in the urban development process should be quantified to rebalance the social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In this study, an emergy-based environmental impact assessment model is designed according to the framework of the Eco-Indicator 99 for monitoring the negative effects on human well-being and ecosystem integrity in the urban development system of Beijing from 1999 to 2006. The environmental impact assessment model is based on the sustainability promotion perspective, and emphasizes the determinants of human health and ecosystem integrity in the urban development process. It is vital that the links among human health, ecosystem integrity and urban sustainability are therefore considered especially from the perspective of a supply-side environmental cost evaluation (including ecological service supply, ecological and economic losses and investment for treatment). Results suggest that: (1) out of all the pollutants, ecological services were mainly used to dilute sulfur dioxide and NH(3)-N; (2) nitrogen dioxide and greenhouse gases released by the urban system contribute heavily to both ecological and economic losses evaluated in emergy terms; and (3) emissions impact, mainly from airborne pollutants, with small contribution from waterborne emissions, generally increases from 1999 to 2006, undermining the sustainability of Beijing. The emergy synthesis proves to be very appropriate to account for large-scale and indirect costs generated by pollution as side effects of economic activity. Such knowledge is a necessary pre-requisite to perform a reliable cost-benefit evaluation of urban sustainability strategies, and provide guidance for policy decision making to maximize benefits and minimize negative impacts.

  14. Population distribution and redistribution of the baby-boom cohort in the United States: recent trends and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogerson, Peter A; Kim, Daejong

    2005-10-25

    Over 70 million people were born into the baby-boom cohort between 1946 and 1964. Over 65 million of these individuals are presently alive, and thus the cohort continues to exert a powerful influence on regional population change in the United States. In this article, we examine the recent and current geographic distribution of the baby-boom cohort. In 1990, the members of the cohort comprised a particularly high proportion of the population in a small number of dynamic metropolitan areas. We also highlight the recent migration trends exhibited by this cohort; these trends are potentially important early indicators of the retirement-related migration patterns that the cohort might follow. The spatial redistribution of the cohort has many implications, including potentially significant consequences for intergenerational relationships and caregiving. Also highlighted in the article are the temporal and geographical implications for intergenerational caregiving. There has been much attention given to the "sandwich" generation, with its members having dual caregiving responsibilities to both parents and children. A more appropriate designation may be the "stretched" generation, because caregiving seems to extend over a long period. In particular, many members of the baby-boom cohort are beginning to care for their aging parents just as they finish child rearing.

  15. Trend in obesity prevalence in European adult cohort populations during follow-up since 1996 and their predictions to 2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne von Ruesten

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. METHODS: Data of 97,942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC study participating in the Diogenes project (named as "Diogenes cohort" in the following with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R²  = 0.98, and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99. CONCLUSION: Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.

  16. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  17. Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deanh M. Donner; John R. Probst; Christine A. Ribic

    2008-01-01

    Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial...

  18. Trends in lifestyle coronary risk factors in the Danish MONICA population 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    and women of ages 30, 40, 50 and 60 y, examined in 1982-4, in 1986-7, and in 1991-2, were analysed to estimate trends. A summary healthy eating index and six scores derived by factor analysis were used to analyse food frequency data. The percentage of smokers declined 1.6% per year in men, and 1.0% per year...... and among women over 30, the percentage of wine-drinkers rose from 6-11% in 1982-4 to 9-18% in 1991-2. Only 60-y-old men became more physically active at work and only 30-y-old women more so in leisure times. The percentage of individuals with a low healthy eating index decreased and the percentage...

  19. Alaska landbird monitoring survey and off-road point count

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Alaska Landbird Monitoring Survey (ALMS) program is a cooperative statewide program established to monitor population trends of landbirds and other birds across...

  20. [A population-targeted approach to connect prevention, care and welfare: visualising the trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L C; Drewes, H W; Lette, M; Baan, C A

    2017-01-01

    To map initiatives in the Netherlands using a population-targeted approach to link prevention, care and welfare. Descriptive investigation, based on conversations and structured interviews. We searched for initiatives in which providers in the areas of prevention, care and welfare together with health insurers and/or local authorities attempted to provide the 'triple aim': improving the health of the population and the quality of care, and managing costs. We found potential initiatives on the basis of interviews with key figures, project databases and congress programmes. We looked for additional information on websites and via contact persons to gather additional information to determine whether the initiative met the inclusion criteria. An initiative should link prevention, care and welfare with a minimum of three players actively pursuing a population-targeted goal through multiple interventions for a non-disease specific and district-transcending population. We described the goal, organisational structure, parties involved, activities and funding on the basis of interviews conducted in the period August-December 2015 with the managers of the initiatives included. We found 19 initiatives which met the criteria where there was experimentation with organisational forms, levels of participation, interventions and funding. It was noticeable that the interventions mostly concerned medical care. There was a lack of insight into the 'triple aim', mostly because data exchange between parties is generally difficult. There is an increasing number of initiatives that follow a population-targeted approach. Although the different parties strive to connect the three domains, they are still searching for an optimal collaboration, organisational form, data exchange and financing.

  1. National Approaches to Monitoring Population Salt Intake: A Trade-Off between Accuracy and Practicality?

    OpenAIRE

    Corinna Hawkes; Jacqui Webster

    2012-01-01

    AIMS: There is strong evidence that diets high in salt are bad for health and that salt reduction strategies are cost effective. However, whilst it is clear that most people are eating too much salt, obtaining an accurate assessment of population salt intake is not straightforward, particularly in resource poor settings. The objective of this study is to identify what approaches governments are taking to monitoring salt intake, with the ultimate goal of identifying what actions are needed to ...

  2. Enhancement of the CDC ovitrap with hay infusions for daily monitoring of Aedes aegypti populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiter, P; Amador, M A; Colon, N

    1991-03-01

    An ovitrap containing hay infusion and a second ovitrap adjacent to it containing a 10% dilution of the infusion in tap water together yielded 8 times more Aedes aegypti eggs than single CDC ovitraps containing tap water. These "enhanced pairs" were significantly more attractive than pairs with other combinations of infusion, water or methyl propionate, and have proven useful for daily monitoring of Ae. aegypti populations. Our results shed light on the oviposition behavior of Ae. aegypti in the field.

  3. Conservation and monitoring of a persecuted African lion population by Maasai warriors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Hazzah, Leela; Frank, Laurence G

    2016-06-01

    Although Africa has many threatened species and biological hot spots, there are few citizen science schemes, particularly in rural communities, and there has been limited evaluation of existing programs. We engaged traditional Maasai warriors (pastoralist men aged 15 to 35) in community-based conservation and demographic monitoring of a persecuted African lion (Panthera leo) population. Through direct engagement, we investigated whether a citizen science approach employing local warriors, who had no formal education, could produce reliable data on the demographics, predation, and movements of a species with which their communities have been in conflict for generations. Warriors were given benefits such as literacy training and skill enhancement and engaged in the monitoring of the lions. The trained warriors reported on lion sign across an area nearly 4000 km(2) . Scientists worked together with the warriors to verify their reports and gather observations on the lion population. Using the verified reports and collected observations, we examined our scientific knowledge relative to the lion population preceding and during the citizen science program. Our observations showed that data quality and quantity improved with the involvement and training of the participants. Furthermore, because they engaged in conservation and gained personal benefits, the participants came to appreciate a species that was traditionally their foe. We believe engaging other local communities in biodiversity conservation and monitoring may be an effective conservation approach in rural Africa. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Recommendations for monitoring avian populations with point counts: a case study in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagner Cavarzere

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the northern hemisphere, bird counts have been fundamental in gathering data to understand population trends. Due to the seasonality of the northern hemisphere, counts take place during two clearly defined moments in time: the breeding season (resident birds and winter (after migration. Depending on location, Neotropical birds may breed at any time of year, may or may not migrate, and those patterns are not necessarily synchronous among species. Also in contrast to the northern hemisphere, population trends and the impact of rapid urbanization and deforestation are unknown and unmonitored. Throughout one year, we used point counts to better understand temporal patterns of bird species richness and relative abundance in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, to examine how to implement similar bird counts in tropical America. We counted birds twice each day on 10 point transects (20 points day‑1, separated by 200 m, with a 100 m limited detection radius in a semideciduous tropical forest. Both species richness and bird abundance were greater in the morning, but accumulation curves suggest that longer-duration afternoon counts would reach the same total species as in morning counts. Species richness and bird abundance did not vary seasonally and unique species were counted every month; relatively few species (20% were present in all months. Most (84% known forest species in the area were encountered. We suggest that point counts can work here as they do in the northern hemisphere. We recommend that transects include at least 20 points and that the simplest timing of bird counts would also be seasonal, using timing of migration of austral migrants (and six months later to coordinate counts. We propose that bird counts in Brazil, and elsewhere in Latin America, would provide data to help understand population trends, but would require greater effort than in temperate latitudes due to greater species richness and different dynamics of

  5. Population trends and developments in Kermanshah during 1966-2011, and its future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masood Safari Ali Akbari

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Cities and urbanization in the last decades, it has undergone enormous changes, so that in recent decades, the number of urban and spatial development, the scale is unprecedented. City of Kermanshah, in center of Kermanshah Province, not far from these developments, and according to geographical location (the center of the West Country, and its relationship to the West direction - south, in recent decades, population increases have been high.  This paper aims to examine population changes Kermanshah, ( during the years 1966 to, 2011 was performed in addition to analyzing the process of transformation, and to recognize the causes and contributing factors in the current situation, a better understanding can be reached, as appropriate, plan for the future, be provided.

  6. Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2006-01-01

    Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

  7. Monitoring concentrations of persistent organic pollutants in the general population: the international experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Miquel; Puigdomènech, Elisa; Ballester, Ferran; Selva, Javier; Ribas-Fitó, Núria; Llop, Sabrina; López, Tomàs

    2008-05-01

    Assessing the adverse effects on human health of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and the impact of policies aiming to reduce human exposure to POPs warrants monitoring body concentrations of POPs in representative samples of subjects. While numerous ad hoc studies are being conducted to understand POPs effects, only a few countries are conducting nationwide surveillance programs of human concentrations of POPs, and even less countries do so in representative samples of the general population. We tried to identify all studies worldwide that analyzed the distribution of concentrations of POPs in a representative sample of the general population, and we synthesized the studies' main characteristics, as design, population, and chemicals analyzed. The most comprehensive studies are the National Reports on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals (USA), the German Environmental Survey, and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. Population-wide studies exist as well in New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Flanders (Belgium) and the Canary Islands (Spain). Most such studies are linked with health surveys, which is a highly-relevant additional strength. Only the German and Flemish studies analyzed POPs by educational level, while studies in the USA offer results by ethnic group. The full distribution of POPs concentrations is unknown in many countries. Knowledge gaps include also the interplay of age, gender, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of exposures observed by cross-sectional surveys. Local and global efforts to minimize POPs contamination, like the Stockholm convention, warrant nationwide monitoring of concentrations of POPs in representative samples of the general population. Results of this review show how such studies may be developed and used.

  8. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE PROVISION FOR RADIATION SAFETY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available P.V.Ramzaev”The article is devoted to the actual issues ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety providing at the present stage. The important role of radiation-hygienic passportization is underlined in the process of the obtaining of objective information of radiation situation in the country, of population exposure doses from the all sources: artificial and natural, from the use of ionizing irradiation sources in medicine. The leading role is shown of the natural ionizing irradiation sources in the level of the country population exposure. The main directions of activities are stated aimed on the decreasing of population exposure doses from the natural sources. The brief characteristics is given of the radiation situation on the territories radioactively contaminated after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP, in the Pacific Ocean basin after the accident on the “Fukushima-1”NPP, of the main measures for radiation protection providing and for counteraction to radiation terrorism during the period of international sports and mass actions which were carried out in Russia in the last years (XXVII World Summer Universiade in2013 inKazan, XXII Olympic and XI Winter Paralympics Games in2014 inSochi. The most important tasks are defined for the improvement ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety at the present stage.

  9. Recovery trends of Scrobicularia plana populations after restoration measures, affected by extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdelhos, T; Cardoso, P G; Dolbeth, M; Pardal, M A

    2014-07-01

    The Mondego estuary (Portugal) went through different ecological scenarios over the last decades. An eutrophication process led to a decline in the ecosystem quality. The ensuing restoration plan resulted into a gradual ecological recovery, which was impaired by the occurrence of successive extreme climate events that affected dynamics and productivity of key species. In this study we assess the response of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana to the impacts of these events in a recovery scenario, by comparing populations in two different intertidal habitats: a seagrass bed and a sandflat area. As a general tendency, S. plana, which was negatively affected by eutrophication, responded positively to restoration. However, the occurrence of extreme climate events seemed to affect recruitment success, biomass and production, impairing the recovery process. In the seagrass bed, S. plana maintained a stable and structured population, while in the sandflat area recovery clearly reverted into a decline, mainly concerning biomass and production values. This sequence of multiple stressors might have reduced S. plana resilience to further impacts and therefore, understanding the behavior of biological populations following restoration initiatives requires acknowledgement that some changes may not be easily reversible.

  10. Determinants of bird conservation-action implementation and associated population trends of threatened species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luther, David A; Brooks, Thomas M; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hayward, Matt W; Kester, Marieke E; Lamoreux, John; Upgren, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Trends and determinant factors for population blood pressure with 25 years of follow-up: results from the Copenhagen City Heart Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla Overgaard; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate within-population trends in population blood pressure (BP) over 25 years and to identify important determinants for a changing population BP. DESIGN: Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study. The study population (15 508...... checked by the technicians. RESULTS: After an initial increase, population systolic BP (SBP) decreased. All risk factors were tested in the longitudinal model by means of a residual likelihood ratio test. The final model included sex, age and body mass index as significant factors and covariates. Two....... Diastolic BP (DBP) increased to a peak value in survey 3 and hereafter decreased. CONCLUSION: SBP decreased. body mass index, sex and age have an effect on population BP. A decreasing trend in SBP among new entrants is responsible for (part of) the observed decrease in population SBP. The decreasing SBP...

  12. Western corn rootworm: Experiments on the improvement of monitoring at low population densities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acker, Melanie

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available An efficient monitoring of the western corn rootworm (WCR Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, 1868 (Chrysomelidae, Coleoptera is the most important precondition for convenient measures of eradication or containment. This research project aimed to assess the monitoring methods, especially at low population densities as currently observed in Germany. For this purpose, large-scaled field trials were designed in Bavaria and Upper Austria. The studies focused on the catchability, costs and by-catches of the pheromone-trap PAL in comparison to other trap types. In another experiment, different allocations of PAL traps in the corn field were examined. Finally, traps and pheromones often remain unused at the end of a monitoring season. Therefore the catchability of stored PAL traps in the next monitoring period was investigated. PAL traps captured beetles constantly on a high level. In addition to its low costs and reduced by-catches, the trap type PAL is recommended for the monitoring of western corn rootworm in Germany. Changes in locations of PAL traps within the corn field did not result in a higher catchability. At present, traps are placed in the fifth to eighth corn row and the results confirm to maintain this practice. Comparing the catchability of stored PAL traps to the catchability of fresh traps, stored traps resulted in comparable catches than fresh ones. It is concluded that traps and pheromones, which were stored dark and deep-frozen, can be used in the next season.

  13. Increasing trend of Japanese encephalitis cases in West Bengal, India - a threat to paediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debjani Taraphdar

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To detect the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV as the etiologic agent from the acute encephalitis syndrome (AES cases mainly amongst the children and young adults from vaccinated and non-vaccinated districts of West Bengal. Methods: For the detection of JEV, a total of 828 sera were referred from vaccinated and non vaccinated districts of West Bengal during 2005-2011. Japanese encephalitis (JE positive cases were confirmed by ELISA and RT-PCR method. Results: Out of 828 cases, 245 samples were positive by ELISA method and 46 samples were positive by RT-PCR method. Out of 291 total positive cases, 162 (55.6% were below 20 years of age. Initially in 2005, JE cases were highest amongst the children and young adults (0-20 years. After vaccination, although the JE cases declined gradually in the vaccinated districts, but again from 2010, JE cases from the said age group showed an increasing trend from those districts. JE cases were also reported from other endemic zones of this state, which were still non-vaccinated. Conclusions: In West Bengal, JE cases are still predominated among children and young adults till the year 2011. Mass scale vaccination programme and investigation on the circulating strains are essentially required to find out the reasons of increasing tendency of JE cases in this state.

  14. In Vivo Monitoring of Multiple Circulating Cell Populations Using Two-photon Flow Cytometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkaczyk, Eric R; Zhong, Cheng Frank; Ye, Jing Yong; Myc, Andrzej; Thomas, Thommey; Cao, Zhengyi; Duran-Struuck, Raimon; Luker, Kathryn E; Luker, Gary D; Norris, Theodore B; Baker, James R

    2008-02-15

    To detect and quantify multiple distinct populations of cells circulating simultaneously in the blood of living animals, we developed a novel optical system for two-channel, two-photon flow cytometry in vivo. We used this system to investigate the circulation dynamics in live animals of breast cancer cells with low (MCF-7) and high (MDA-MB-435) metastatic potential, showing for the first time that two different populations of circulating cells can be quantified simultaneously in the vasculature of a single live mouse. We also non-invasively monitored a population of labeled, circulating red blood cells for more than two weeks, demonstrating that this technique can also quantify the dynamics of abundant cells in the vascular system for prolonged periods of time. These data are the first in vivo application of multichannel flow cytometry utilizing two-photon excitation, which will greatly enhance our capability to study circulating cells in cancer and other disease processes.

  15. Epidemiological Trends of Traumatic Brain Injury Identified in the Emergency Department in a Publicly-Insured Population, 2002-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence S Fu

    Full Text Available To examine epidemiological trends of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI treated in the Emergency Department (ED, identify demographic groups at risk of TBI, and determine the factors associated with hospitalization following an ED visit for TBI.A province-wide database was used to identify all ED visits for TBI in Ontario, Canada between April 2002 and March 2010. Trends were analyzed using linear regression, and predictors of hospital admission were evaluated using logistic regression.There were 986,194 ED visits for TBI over the eight-year study period, resulting in 49,290 hospitalizations and 1,072 deaths. The age- and sex-adjusted rate of TBI decreased by 3%, from 1,013.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 1,008.3-1,010.6 to 979.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 973.7-984.4; p = 0.11. We found trends towards increasing age, comorbidity level, length of stay, and ambulatory transport use. Children and young adults (ages 5-24 sustained peak rates of motor vehicle crash (MVC and bicyclist-related TBI, but also experienced the greatest decline in these rates (p = 0.003 and p = 0.005. In contrast, peak rates of fall-related TBI occurred among the youngest (ages 0-4 and oldest (ages 85+ segments of the population, but rates remained stable over time (p = 0.52 and 0.54. The 5-24 age group also sustained the highest rates of sports-related TBI but rates remained stable (p = 0.80. On multivariate analysis, the odds of hospital admission decreased by 1% for each year over the study period (OR = 0.991, 95% CI = 0.987-0.995. Increasing age and comorbidity, male sex, and ambulatory transport were significant predictors of hospital admission.ED visits for TBI are involving older populations with increasingly complex comorbidities. While TBI rates are either stable or declining among vulnerable groups such as young drivers, youth athletes, and the elderly, these populations remain key targets for focused injury prevention and surveillance. Clinicians in the ED setting should be cognizant

  16. Trends of contraception among ladies of local population in Pakistan; why, how, when and what?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atif, Khaula; Afsheen, Afeera; Naqvi, Syed Abid Hassan; Niazi, Saleem Asif; Ullah Khan, Habib

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To analyze trends of use of methods of contraception along with study of impact of various demographic and social factors on contraception in Peshawar, Pakistan. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study with random purposive sampling was conducted at Combined Military Hospital Peshawar, from Mar 2015-Nov 2015. Self-designed questionnaire with demographic details and questions pertinent to contraceptive practices was utilized as study instrument. Females reporting to concerned hospital for contraceptive advice and prescription were distributed with questionnaire and written informed consent form. Formal approval was taken from ethical committee of hospital. Data was analyzed via descriptive analysis (SPSS-21), qualitative data was expressed as frequencies and percentages; quantitative as mean±standard deviation (SD). Main outcome variable i-e contraceptive device used; was cross-tabulated with independent variables. Results: Response rate was 53.2% (n-426). Usage of contraceptive device was as follows; 51.2% Nil, 9.4% barriers, 22.3% oral/injectable hormones, 13.4% IUCDs, 3.8% sterilization. There was a strong relationship between type of contraceptives used and age (p<0.001), client’s education (p<0.001), husband’s education (p<0.001), number of children (p<0.001), religion (p0.013), socioeconomic class (p<0.001), and religious beliefs about use of contraceptives (p<0.001). More Muslims considered contraception irreligious than non-Muslims (p 0.02). There was no significant impact of husbands’ pressure to not to use contraceptives on type of contraception practised (p 0.114). Conclusion: Contraceptive devices are under-utilized in the study participants. Multidisciplinary approach should be applied to enhance client education, awareness and counseling to utilize these devices more appropriately and regularly. PMID:27375727

  17. Nationwide Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pain Prevention Recovery Substance Use and SUDs in LGBT Populations Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications ... of illegal drugs, including marijuana according to federal law, and misuse of prescription drugs. † Binge drinking is ...

  18. Increasing Trend in Colorectal Cancer Incidence in the Southeast of Iran 2003-2013: A Population Based Cancer Registry Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baniasadi, Nadieh; Moghtader, Elahe; Khajehkazemi, Razieh; Mohebbi, Elham

    2015-01-01

    Rates based on age-adjusted incidence of colorectal cancers over a 10-year period in Kerman, the biggest province of Iran, were estimated from 2003 to 2013. Data were obtained from the population-based cancer registry unit of Kerman University of Medical Sciences (CR-KMU). Information included age, sex, city, ICD-O and year of registry. Our trend analyses cover 3.91% of the Iranian population. The data set comprised cases diagnosed from 2003 to 2013.The population of over 20 years was interpolated using 2003 and 2010 censuses. Then, truncated age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Increase was noted from 2003-2009 to 2010-2013 for 731 cancer cases considered in the analysis. The increases was most prominent in 2009. Totally, the frequency of the cancer was greater in males. Moreover, calculating truncated age-adjusted incidence rate indicated that the most prevalent age of colorectal incidence was in the 50-59 year age group except in 2007-2008 and 2012- 2013, when greatest incidences occurred in people aged 60-69 years. Our data revealed that the incidence rates of colorectal cancer have increased over the past decade in our region of Iran.

  19. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  20. A new molecular diagnostic tool for surveying and monitoring Triops cancriformis populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham S. Sellers

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The tadpole shrimp, Triops cancriformis, is a freshwater crustacean listed as endangered in the UK and Europe living in ephemeral pools. Populations are threatened by habitat destruction due to land development for agriculture and increased urbanisation. Despite this, there is a lack of efficient methods for discovering and monitoring populations. Established macroinvertebrate monitoring methods, such as net sampling, are unsuitable given the organism’s life history, that include long lived diapausing eggs, benthic habits and ephemerally active populations. Conventional hatching methods, such as sediment incubation, are both time consuming and potentially confounded by bet-hedging hatching strategies of diapausing eggs. Here we develop a new molecular diagnostic method to detect viable egg banks of T. cancriformis, and compare its performance to two conventional monitoring methods involving diapausing egg hatching. We apply this method to a collection of pond sediments from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Caerlaverock National Nature Reserve, which holds one of the two remaining British populations of T. cancriformis. DNA barcoding of isolated eggs, using newly designed species-specific primers for a large region of mtDNA, was used to estimate egg viability. These estimates were compared to those obtained by the conventional methods of sediment and isolation hatching. Our method outperformed the conventional methods, revealing six ponds holding viable T. cancriformis diapausing egg banks in Caerlaverock. Additionally, designed species-specific primers for a short region of mtDNA identified degraded, inviable eggs and were used to ascertain the levels of recent mortality within an egg bank. Together with efficient sugar flotation techniques to extract eggs from sediment samples, our molecular method proved to be a faster and more powerful alternative for assessing the viability and condition of T. cancriformis diapausing egg banks.

  1. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  2. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    China Supakorn

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

  3. High-risk prescribing in an Irish primary care population: trends and variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Catherine J; Cahir, Caitriona; Curran, Carmel; Bennett, Kathleen

    2017-07-12

    The aims of the present study were to examine the prevalence of high-risk prescribing (HRP) in community-dwelling adults in Ireland from 2011-2015 using consensus-validated indicators, factors associated with HRP, and the variation in HRP between general practitioners (GPs) and in the dispensing of high-risk prescriptions between pharmacies. A repeated cross-sectional national pharmacy claims database study was conducted. Prescribing indicators were based on those developed in formal consensus studies and applicable to pharmacy claims data. Multilevel logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with HRP and dispensing. There were significant reductions in the rates of most indicators over time (P GPs was significant (P GPs and pharmacies suggests the potential for improvement in safe medicines use in community care, particularly in vulnerable older populations. © 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.

  4. Trends and variation in the management of oesophagogastric cancer patients: a population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greenberg David C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evidence indicates potential variation in the quality of care of cancer patients. We aimed to examine whether recent changes in the treatment of oesophagogastric cancers have been distributed equally among different patient subgroups. Methods We analysed population-based cancer registry data about the treatment patterning of oesophagogastric cancer (other than oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma during 1995-2006. Results There were 14,077 patients aged ≥40 years (69% men. There was only limited information on stage, and no information on co-morbidity status. During successive triennia, curative surgery use decreased from 28% to 20% (p Conclusions During the study period, curative surgery decreased by a third and chemotherapy use increased by more than three-fold, reflecting improvements in the appropriateness and quality of management, but chemotherapy use, in particular, was unequal, both by socioeconomic status and gender.

  5. Testicular cancer trends as 'whistle blowers' of testicular developmental problems in populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skakkebaek, N E; Rajpert-De Meyts, E; Jørgensen, N

    2007-01-01

    Recently a worldwide rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer (TGCC) has been repeatedly reported. The changing disease pattern may signal that other testicular problems may also be increasing. We have reviewed recent research progress, in particular evidence gathered in the Nordic...... countries, which shows strong associations between testicular cancer, undescended testis, hypospadias, poor testicular development and function, and male infertility. These studies have led us to suggest the existence of a testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS), of which TGCC, undescended testis, hypospadias...... in TGCC rates of a population may be 'whistle blowers' of other reproductive health problems. As cancer registries are often of excellent quality - in contrast to registries for congenital abnormalities - health authorities should consider an increase in TGCC as a warning that other reproductive health...

  6. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preeyaporn Koedrith

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants. In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed.

  7. Time trends in the incidence and treatment of extra-abdominal and abdominal aggressive fibromatosis: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Broekhoven, Danique L M; Grünhagen, Dirk J; den Bakker, Michael A; van Dalen, Thijs; Verhoef, Cornelis

    2015-09-01

    Aggressive fibromatosis (AF) is a locally infiltrating soft-tissue tumor. In a population-based study in the Netherlands, we evaluated time trends for the incidence and treatment of AF. In PALGA: Dutch Pathology Registry, all patients diagnosed between 1993 and 2013 as having extra-abdominal or abdominal wall aggressive fibromatosis were identified and available pathology data of the patients were evaluated. Epidemiological and treatment-related factors were analyzed with χ (2)and regression analysis. During the study period, 1134 patients were identified. The incidence increased from 2.10 to 5.36 per million people per year. Median age at the time of diagnosis increased annually by B 0.285 (P = 0.001). Female gender prevailed and increased over time [annual odds ratio (OR) 1.022; P = 0.058]. All anatomic localizations, but in particular truncal tumors, became more frequent. During the study period diagnostic histological biopsies were performed more often (annual OR 1.096; P fibromatosis was observed. The workup of patients improved and a trend towards a nonsurgical treatment policy was observed.

  8. Trends and determinant factors in hypertension control in a population study with 25 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    as compared with younger hypertensive patients. Obesity was associated with a high threshold SBP. The fourth factor was diagnosis. Patients with myocardial infarction were better treated in last surveys than patients from other diagnosis groups. Treated DBP was stable. CONCLUSION: Hypertension treatment...... efficacy is improving but still far from acceptable. The evaluation of determinant factors identified four areas that need special attention: men, elderly and obese hypertensive patients. The fourth factor is diagnosis. The results may indicate a beneficial effect of systematic control of hypertensive......OBJECTIVE: The present study focused on trend in hypertension control and on determinant factors that may influence efficacy in antihypertensive therapy. Two measures of treatment efficacy were used: population blood pressure and the relative frequency of effectively treated patients (blood...

  9. Trends in Glaucoma Medication Expenditures under Universal Health Coverage: A National Population-Based Longitudinal Survey in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Lin Chiu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical care in Taiwan is well known for its low cost, high efficiency, high quality, excellent medical accessibility, and high equity. We investigate the trends in medication expenditures for glaucoma from 1997 to 2010. The results show that higher medical expenditures were incurred by patients who were aged ≥40 years, male patients, and patients in the highest salary population whereas lower medical expenditures were incurred by blue-collar workers. The medications with the most significant increases in expenditure were prostaglandin analogs (PGAs, α-agonists, and fixed combinations, whereas the medications with the most significant decreases in expenditure were β-blockers and cholinergic agonists. The number of trabeculectomies shows two downward break points in 1999 and 2000 when PGAs were listed and were reimbursed. These results suggest socioeconomic disparities in glaucoma care, as well as understanding of the changes in the expenditure of glaucoma medications under such universal health insurance coverage system.

  10. Evaluation of yellow sticky traps for monitoring the population of thrips (Thysanoptera) in a mango orchard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliakbarpour, Hamaseh; Rawi, Che Salmah Md

    2011-08-01

    Populations of several thrips species were estimated using yellow sticky traps in an orchard planted with mango, Mangifera indica L. during the dry and wet seasons beginning in late 2008-2009 on Penang Island, Malaysia. To determine the efficacy of using sticky traps to monitor thrips populations, we compared weekly population estimates on yellow sticky traps with thrips population sizes that were determined (using a CO(2) method) directly from mango panicles. Dispersal distance and direction of thrips movement out of the orchard also were studied using yellow sticky traps placed at three distances from the edge of the orchard in four cardinal directions facing into the orchard. The number of thrips associated with the mango panicles was found to be correlated with the number of thrips collected using the sticky trap method. The number of thrips captured by the traps decreased with increasing distance from the mango orchard in all directions. Density of thrips leaving the orchard was related to the surrounding vegetation. Our results demonstrate that sticky traps have the potential to satisfactorily estimate thrips populations in mango orchards and thus they can be effectively employed as a useful tactic for sampling thrips.

  11. National Surveys of Population Health: Big Data Analytics for Mobile Health Monitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Bruce R

    2015-12-01

    At the core of the healthcare crisis is fundamental lack of actionable data. Such data could stratify individuals within populations to predict which persons have which outcomes. If baselines existed for all variations of all conditions, then managing health could be improved by matching the measuring of individuals to their cohort in the population. The scale required for complete baselines involves effective National Surveys of Population Health (NSPH). Traditionally, these have been focused upon acute medicine, measuring people to contain the spread of epidemics. In recent decades, the focus has moved to chronic conditions as well, which require smaller measures over longer times. NSPH have long utilized quality of life questionnaires. Mobile Health Monitors, where computing technologies eliminate manual administration, provide richer data sets for health measurement. Older technologies of telephone interviews will be replaced by newer technologies of smartphone sensors to provide deeper individual measures at more frequent timings across larger-sized populations. Such continuous data can provide personal health records, supporting treatment guidelines specialized for population cohorts. Evidence-based medicine will become feasible by leveraging hundreds of millions of persons carrying mobile devices interacting with Internet-scale services for Big Data Analytics.

  12. [Prevalence trends of high risk of mental disorders in the Spanish adult population: 2006-2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basterra, Virginia

    To evaluate the prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity in the Spanish adult population and its changes between 2006 and 2012. Data from 47,905 participants obtained from the National Health Surveys in 2006 and 2012 were used. Mental health status was assessed with the General Health Questionnaire score. Adjusted logistic regression models were fitted. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity was 20.5% in 2012 and 21.3% in 2006. Using 2006 as the reference, the odds ratio (OR) for these problems in 2012 was 0.84 (0.79-0.89) in women and 1.10 (1.02-1.18) in men. In women, it decreased for all ages. In men, these ORs were 1.15 (1.04-1.27) in the aged 16-44 group, 1.23 (1.08-1.40) in the aged 45-64 group and 0.81 (0.68-0.96) in the aged ≥ 65 group. The prevalence of high risk of psychiatric morbidity decreased except in males <65 years of age, who are more sensitive to the economic crisis. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. The SLUGGS survey: Globular cluster stellar population trends from weak absorption lines in stacked spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Usher, Christopher; Brodie, Jean P; Romanowsky, Aaron J; Strader, Jay; Conroy, Charlie; Foster, Caroline; Pastorello, Nicola; Pota, Vincenzo; Arnold, Jacob A

    2014-01-01

    As part of the SLUGGS survey, we stack 1137 Keck DEIMOS spectra of globular clusters from 10 galaxies to study their stellar populations in detail. The stacked spectra have median signal to noise ratios of $\\sim 90$ \\AA$^{-1}$. Besides the calcium triplet, we study weaker sodium, magnesium, titanium and iron lines as well as the H$\\alpha$ and higher order Paschen hydrogen lines. In general, the stacked spectra are consistent with old ages and a Milky Way-like initial mass function. However, we see different metal line index strengths at fixed colour and magnitude, and differences in the calcium triplet--colour relation from galaxy to galaxy. We interpret this as strong evidence for variations in the globular cluster colour--metallicity relation between galaxies. Two possible explanations for the colour--metallicity relation variations are that the average ages of globular clusters vary from galaxy to galaxy or that the average abundances of light elements (i.e. He, C, N and O) differ between galaxies. Stackin...

  14. Spatial and seasonal trends of a natural population of Biomphalaria occidentalis in northeastern Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandra Rumi

    1992-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the age of a population of Biomphalaria occidentalis on a pound of Riachuelo river basin, wich is one of the three most important Middle Paraná river affluents in Corrientes province. Samples were drawn from three stations, were spatial and temporal numerical variations of the snail, as well as its relation with different environmental parameters, mainly temperature, rainfall, pH and conductivity, were analyzed. Snail abundance is given in number of individuals/hour. The differences between the three sampling stations, estimated by nonparametric tests, was nonsignificant. A relative scale to the greatest shell diameter was employed to build the age pyramids. Temporal fluctuations of snail abundance correlated negatively with the highest monthly accumulated temperatures (P < 0.05. Although different floristic compositions were observed at the three stations, no significant numerical variations were detected in B. occidentalis spatial distribution. Reproductive activity took place between March-April and November with overlapping cohort system. During summer (December-Febuary mortality increased along with temperature and reproductive activity was not evident.

  15. Who is using snus? - Time trends, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in the ageing Swedish population

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    Norberg Margareta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevalence of smoking in Sweden has decreased in recent decades, and is now among the lowest in the world. During the same period, the use of Swedish moist oral snuff, a smokeless tobacco called snus, has increased. Few studies have evaluated time trends of the socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of snus users in Sweden. This paper contributes to filling that gap. Methods This study utilized the Linnaeus Database, which links national registers with comprehensive individual data on socioeconomic status (SES to health data from a large ongoing health survey, the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP. The VIP targets the entire middle-aged population of Västerbotten county at ages 40, 50 and 60 years with yearly cross-sectional surveys including self-reported data on tobacco habits. Time trends of snus use among 92,563 VIP-participants across different areas of residence and smoking groups were investigated graphically. Logistic regression was performed to estimate the associations between SES and geographical variables and current use versus non-use of snus. Results Overall, in parallel to decreasing smoking, the increasing trend of snus use in this middle-aged population continues, particularly in 40-year-olds. In both genders, the highest prevalence of snus use was observed among previous smokers. The prevalence of snus use also increased over time among smokers, and was consistently higher compared to those who had never smoked. Among males - both those who had never smoked and previous smokers - low education (OR 1.21, 95%CI 1.06-1.40 and OR 1.28, 95%CI 1.14-1.43, living alone (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.07-1.27 and OR 1.13, 95%ci 1.04-1.23, low income and living in rural areas was associated with using snus, while this was not seen among male current smokers. Among women, living alone was associated with using snus irrespective of smoking habits. Among female smokers, the OR for snus use increased with higher

  16. RADIATION HYGIENIC MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION DOSES IN RADIOACTIVELY CONTAMINATED AREAS OF TULA REGION

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    T. M. Chichura

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal. The analyses of radiation hygienic monitoring conducted in Tula region territories affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident regarding cesium-137 and strontium- 90 in the local foodstuffs and the analyses of populational annual effective dose. The materials and methods. The survey was conducted in Tula Region since 1997 to 2015. Over that period, more than fifty thousand samples of the main foodstuffs from the post-Chernobyl contaminated area were analyzed. Simultaneously with that, the external gamma - radiation dose rate was measured in the fixed control points. The dynamics of cesium -137 and strontium-90 content in foodstuffs were assessed along with the maximum values of the mean annual effective doses to the population and the contribution of the collective dose from medical exposures into the structure of the annual effective collective dose to the population. The results. The amount of cesium-137 and strontium -90 in the local foodstuffs was identified. The external gamma- radiation dose rate values were found to be stable and not exceeding the natural fluctuations range typical for the middle latitudes of Russia’s European territory. The maximum mean annual effective dose to the population reflects the stable radiation situation and does not exceed the permissible value of 1 mSv. The contribution of the collective dose from medical exposures of the population has been continuously reducing as well as the average individual dose to the population per one medical treatment under the annual increase of the medical treatments quantities. The conclusion. There is no exceedance of the admissible levels of cesium-137 and strontium- 90 content in the local foodstuffs. The mean annual effective dose to the population has decreased which makes it possible to transfer the settlements affected by the Chernobyl NPP accident to normal life style. This is covered by the draft concept of the settlements’ transfer to normal life style.

  17. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

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    Peixia Cheng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural, and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China.Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10 since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1 Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13. (2 Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3 Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for

  18. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  19. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  20. Japanese secular trends in birthweight and the prevalence of low birthweight infants during the last three decades: A population-based study

    OpenAIRE

    Yo Takemoto; Erika Ota; Daisuke Yoneoka; Rintaro Mori; Satoru Takeda

    2016-01-01

    Since low birthweight has been correlated with both neonatal and long-term health, we performed this epidemiological study to evaluate the Japanese secular trends in mean birthweight and the prevalence of preterm/term low birthweight infants during the last three decades. We used population-based birth certificate data from January 1979 to December 2010. Time trends were analysed using a linear regression model. During the study period, we observed a significant decrease in the mean birthweig...

  1. Effects of bispectral index monitoring on isoflurane consumption and recovery profiles for anesthesia in an elderly asian population

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    Faraz Shafiq

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: The use of BIS in an elderly Asian population resulted in 40% reduction of isoflurane usage. The patients having BIS monitoring awoke earlier and had better recovery profiles at the end of anesthesia.

  2. Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

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    Katherine S. Fu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%, transportation (28%, industry (20%, agriculture (10%, and commercial and residential (10%. Yet the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annual temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. We find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. This finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city’s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.

  3. Dynamic population trends observed in the deep-living Pacific flatnose, Antimora microlepis, on the U.S. West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Peter H.; Keller, Aimee A.; Simon, Victor

    2017-04-01

    As fisheries managers attempt to incorporate ecosystem-based considerations into decision making, it is important to understand the role that non-target species play in the ecosystems that support commercial fisheries. For some deep-water groundfishes, basic information on biology and population dynamics is extremely limited. This study presents findings on the spatial distribution, growth trends, and relative abundance of the Pacific flatnose, Antimora microlepis, using data collected from 2003 to 2015 by the Northwest Fisheries Science Center's West Coast Groundfish Bottom Trawl Survey (WCGBTS). We observed a 67% increase in mean fork-length over the study period reflecting the advancement of strong year-classes from the early 2000s that currently dominate the population as a whole. Catch-weighted depth increased significantly as these cohorts migrated to deeper waters of the continental slope. Although catch per unit effort remained relatively constant, this demographic shift suggests that episodic recruitment may affect the resilience of this stock to fishing mortality over time. A notable decrease in the percentage of females observed after 2012 seemed to indicate the movement of large, older females to depths beyond the 1280 m limit of the survey. Otolith weight provided a useful proxy for age in growth models for this species.

  4. Monitoring for Insecticide Resistance in Asian Citrus Psyllid (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) Populations in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanga, Lambert H B; Eason, Julius; Haseeb, Muhammad; Qureshi, Jawwad; Stansly, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The development of insecticide resistance in Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, populations is a serious threat to the citrus industry. As a contribution to a resistance management strategy, we developed a glass vial technique to monitor field populations of Asian citrus psyllid for insecticide resistance. Diagnostic concentrations needed to separate susceptible genotypes from resistant individuals were determined for cypermethrin (0.5 μg per vial), malathion (1.0 μg per vial), diazinon (1.0 μg per vial), carbaryl (1.0 μg per vial), carbofuran (0.1 μg per vial), methomyl (1.0 μg per vial), propoxur (1.0 μg per vial), endosulfan (1.0 μg per vial), imidacloprid (0.5 μg per vial), acetamiprid (5.0 μg per vial), chlorfenapyr (2.5 μg per vial), and fenpyroximate (2.5 μg per vial). In 2014, resistance to two carbamate insecticides (carbaryl and carbofuran), one organophosphate (malathion), one pyrethroid (cypermethrin), and one pyrazole (fenpyroximate) was detected in field populations of Asian citrus psyllid in Immokalee, FL. There was no resistance detected to diazinon, methomyl, propoxur, endosulfan, imidacloprid, and chlorfenapyr. The levels of insecticide resistance were variable and unstable, suggesting that resistance could be successfully managed. The results validate the use of the glass vial bioassay to monitor for resistance in Asian citrus psyllid populations and provide the basis for the development of a resistance management strategy designed to extend the efficacy of all classes of insecticides used for control of the Asian citrus psyllid.

  5. Monitoring the microbial populations and temperatures of fresh broccoli from harvest to retail display.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallaire, R; LeBlanc, D I; Tranchant, C C; Vasseur, L; Delaquis, P; Beaulieu, C

    2006-05-01

    Microbial populations and the temperature of fresh broccoli were monitored at several steps of a supply chain by sampling 33 distinct lots of locally grown produce over two seasons during harvest, storage, wholesale handling, and retail display. Imported broccoli was also sampled, but only at retail display. Microbiological analyses were conducted on the florets of 201 local and 60 imported broccoli samples to determine populations of total aerobic bacteria (aerobic colony count), fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, and Listeria monocytogenes. All the samples had mean aerobic colony counts ranging between 4 and 6 log CFU/g, but L. monocytogenes was not detected (limit of detection =100 CFU/g). Fecal coliforms and E. coli (limit of detection =20 most probable number per 100 g) were found in 22 of 126 samples of local broccoli collected at various steps of the production and distribution system during the first season. None was found in 75 samples collected in the second season. Fecal coliforms and E. coli were found in 2 of 60 imported broccoli samples. Broccoli temperatures were relatively well controlled throughout the production and distribution system. No clear change in produce microbial populations was evident between harvest and retail display, during both sampling seasons. However, a large experimental variability was found, possibly associated with the high variability of the initial levels of microbial populations on broccoli at harvest.

  6. Estimating population size of a nocturnal burrow-nesting seabird using acoustic monitoring and habitat mapping

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    Steffen Oppel

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Population size assessments for nocturnal burrow-nesting seabirds are logistically challenging because these species are active in colonies only during darkness and often nest on remote islands where manual inspections of breeding burrows are not feasible. Many seabird species are highly vocal, and recent technological innovations now make it possible to record and quantify vocal activity in seabird colonies. Here we test the hypothesis that remotely recorded vocal activity in Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris borealis breeding colonies in the North Atlantic increases with nest density, and combined this relationship with cliff habitat mapping to estimate the population size of Cory’s shearwaters on the island of Corvo (Azores. We deployed acoustic recording devices in 9 Cory’s shearwater colonies of known size to establish a relationship between vocal activity and local nest density (slope = 1.07, R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001. We used this relationship to predict the nest density in various cliff habitat types and produced a habitat map of breeding cliffs to extrapolate nest density around the island of Corvo. The mean predicted nest density on Corvo ranged from 6.6 (2.1–16.2 to 27.8 (19.5–36.4 nests/ha. Extrapolation of habitat-specific nest densities across the cliff area of Corvo resulted in an estimate of 6326 Cory’s shearwater nests (95% confidence interval: 3735–10,524. This population size estimate is similar to previous assessments, but is too imprecise to detect moderate changes in population size over time. While estimating absolute population size from acoustic recordings may not be sufficiently precise, the strong positive relationship that we found between local nest density and recorded calling rate indicates that passive acoustic monitoring may be useful to document relative changes in seabird populations over time.

  7. Monitoring and trend mapping of sea surface temperature (SST) from MODIS data: a case study of Mumbai coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmi, Samee; Agarwadkar, Yogesh; Bhattacharya, Mohor; Apte, Mugdha; Inamdar, Arun B

    2015-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters in monitoring ecosystem health in the marine and coastal environment. Coastal ecosystem is largely dependent on ambient temperature and temperature fronts for marine/coastal habitat and its sustainability. Hence, thermal pollution is seen as a severe threat for ecological health of coastal waters across the world. Mumbai is one of the largest metropolises of the world and faces severe domestic and industrial effluent disposal problem, of which thermal pollution is a major issue with policy-makers and environmental stakeholders. This study attempts to understand the long-term SST variation in the coastal waters off Mumbai, on the western coast of India, and to identify thermal pollution zones. Analysis of SST trends in the near-coastal waters for the pre- and post-monsoon seasons from the year 2004 to the year 2010 has been carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Thermal Infra-red (TIR) bands. SST is calculated with the help of bands 31 and 32 using split window method. Several statistical operations were then applied to find the seasonal averages in SST and the standard deviation of SST in the study area. Maximum variation in SST was found within a perpendicular distance of 5 km from the shoreline during the study period. Also, a warm water mass was found to form consistently off coast during the winter months. Several anthropogenic sources of thermal pollution could be identified which were found to impact various locations along the coast.

  8. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994-2003): status and trends of populations and nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark H. Huff; Martin G. Raphael; Sherri L. Miller; S. Kim Nelson; Jim Baldwin

    2006-01-01

    The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for federal land in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on marbled murrelet ecology and present the monitoring...

  9. Trends in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control in an adult type 2 diabetes Spanish population between 2003 and 2009.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen de Burgos-Lunar

    Full Text Available In patients with type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of hypertension is higher than in non-diabetic subjects. Despite the high cardiovascular risk involving hypertension in these patients, its prevalence and control are not well known. The aims of this study were: to estimate the hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control in Spanish adults with type 2 diabetes attended in Primary Care; and to analyse its time trend from 2003 to 2009. A serial cross-sectional study from 2003 to 2009 was performed in 21 Primary Care Centres in Madrid. The study population comprised all patients with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in their computerised medical history. Overall annual prevalence during the period 2003-2009 was calculated from and according to sex and age groups. Linear trend tests, regression lines and coefficients of determination were used. In 2003 89.78% (CI 87.92-91.64 of patients with type 2 diabetes suffered hypertension and 94.76% (CI: 92.85-96.67 in 2009. This percentage was greater for women and for patients over 65 years old. 30% of patients suffered previously undiagnosed hypertension in 2003 and 23.1% in 2009. 97% of diagnosed patients received pharmacological treatment and 28.79% reached the blood pressure objective in 2009. The average number of antihypertensive drugs taken was 2.72 in 2003 and 3.27 in 2009. Only 5.2% of patients with type 2 diabetes show blood pressure levels below 130/80 mmHg. Although significant improvements have been achieved in the diagnosis and control of hypertension in people with type 2 diabetes, these continue to remain far from optimum.

  10. Recent trends in non-invasive in situ techniques to monitor bacterial colonies in solid (model food

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    Maria eMartinez Lobete

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Planktonic cells typically found in liquid systems, are routinely used for building predictive models or assessing the efficacy of food preserving technologies. However, freely suspended cells often show different susceptibility to environmental hurdles than colony cells in solid matrices. Limited oxygen, water and nutrient availability, metabolite accumulation and physical constraints due to cell immobilization in the matrix, are main factors affecting cell growth. Moreover, intra- and inter-colony interactions, as a consequence of the initial microbial load in solid systems, may affect microbial physiology. Predictive food microbiology approaches are moving towards a more realistic resemblance to food products, performing studies in structured solid systems instead of liquids. Since structured systems promote microbial cells to become immobilized and grow as colonies, it is essential to study the colony behaviour, not only for food safety assurance systems, but also for understanding cell physiology and optimizing food production processes in solid matrices. Traditionally, microbial dynamics in solid systems have been assessed with a macroscopic approach by applying invasive analytical techniques; for instance, viable plate counting, which yield information about overall population. In the last years, this approach is being substituted by more mechanistically-inspired ones at mesoscopic (colony and microscopic (cell levels. Therefore, non-invasive and in-situ monitoring is mandatory for a deeper insight into bacterial colony dynamics. Several methodologies that enable high-throughput data collection have been developed, such as microscopy-based techniques coupled with image analysis and OD–based measurements in microplate readers. This research paper provides an overview of non-invasive in-situ techniques to monitor bacterial colonies in solid (model food and emphasizes their advantages and inconveniences in terms of accuracy, performance

  11. Considerations when using the activPAL monitor in field-based research with adult populations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Charlotte L. Edwardson; Elisabeth A.H. Winkler; Danielle H. Bodicoat; Tom Yates; Melanie J. Davies; David W. Dunstan; Genevieve N. Healy

    2017-01-01

    Research indicates that high levels of sedentary behavior (sitting or lying with low energy expenditure) are adversely associated with health. A key factor in improving our understanding of the impact of sedentary behavior (and patterns of sedentary time accumulation) on health is the use of objective measurement tools that collect date and time-stamped activity information. One such tool is the activPAL monitor. This thigh-worn device uses accelerometer-derived information about thigh position to determine the start and end of each period spent sitting/lying, standing, and stepping, as well as stepping speed, step counts, and postural transitions. The activPAL is increasingly being used within field-based research for its ability to measure sitting/lying via posture. We summarise key issues to consider when using the activPAL in physical activity and sedentary behavior field-based research with adult populations. It is intended that the findings and discussion points be informative for researchers who are currently using activPAL monitors or are intending to use them. Pre-data collection decisions, monitor preparation and distribution, data collection considerations, and manual and automated data processing possibilities are presented using examples from current literature and experiences from 2 research groups from the UK and Australia.

  12. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn B Meyer

    Full Text Available Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix, common buzzard (Buteo buteo, and red kite (Milvus milvus. We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species and poisons (4-46% of mortality reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe, stable for buzzard (in Germany, and increasing for red kite (in Wales. Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%. The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently

  13. Trends in dietary patterns of Latin American populations Tendencias en el consumo de alimentos en poblaciones latinoamericanas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odilia I. Bermudez

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to characterize the level and magnitude of changes in food consumption patterns in Latin American populations as they undergo demographic and developmental transitions because of the effects of such changes on the development and progression of chronic diseases. This paper examines trends in food intake across regions in Latin America. Although trends in apparent food consumption differ in magnitude and timing, the overall patterns of change are remarkably consistent. Intakes of total fat, animal products, and sugar are increasing, even while there have been rapid declines in the intake of cereals, fruit, and some vegetables. The costs of the increased prevalence of chronic disease associated with these dietary changes are already affecting health systems still coping with malnutrition and infectious disease. Because this pattern of change is predictable, it is important to learn from the experiences gained in countries that are more advanced in the transition. Efforts to educate the population on the importance of a healthy diet and to issue policies to improve the availability of a healthy food supply can help to reduce the rapid escalation of obesity and chronic diseases.A la vez que las poblaciones latinoamericanas atraviesan por sus transiciones demográficas y de desarrollo, es importante caracterizar las dimensiones de los cambios que se producen simultáneamente en los patrones de consumo de alimentos de estas poblaciones. Este trabajo examina las tendencias en consumo de alimentos en América Latina, aunque estas tendencias se diferencian en tiempo de ocurrencia y magnitud, los patrones globales son muy consistentes. El consumo de grasas totales, productos animales y azúcares está en aumento y al mismo tiempo se está disminuyendo la ingesta de cereales, frutas y algunos vegetales. Los costos de la creciente prevalencia de enfermedades crónicas asociadas con estos cambios en el consumo están afectando a los sistemas

  14. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta[General Conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Kindzierski, W.B. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering]|[SEACOR Environmental Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}), ozone (O{sub 3}), and particulate matter (PM{sub 2.5}) in Edmonton, as well as the NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, PM{sub 2.5}, and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM{sub 2.5}. There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay.

  15. Adelie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon N Jarman

    Full Text Available The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  16. Adélie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarman, Simon N; McInnes, Julie C; Faux, Cassandra; Polanowski, Andrea M; Marthick, James; Deagle, Bruce E; Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise

    2013-01-01

    The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA) sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  17. Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

    2016-03-01

    Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

  18. Asbestos bodies in bronchoalveolar lavage in the 21st century: a time-trend analysis in a clinical population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuyts, Valerie; Vanhooren, Hadewijch; Begyn, Sarah; Nackaerts, Kristiaan; Nemery, Benoit

    2017-01-01

    Asbestos bodies (AB) in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) can be detected by light microscopy and their concentration is indicative of past cumulative asbestos exposure. We assessed clinical and exposure characteristics, as well as possible time trends, among patients in whom AB had been quantified in BAL. BAL samples obtained from 578 participants between January 1997 and December 2014 were available for analysis. The processing of samples and the microscopic analysis were performed by a single expert and 76% of samples came from a single tertiary care hospital, allowing clinical and exposure data to be extracted from patient files. The study population (95% males) had a mean age of 62.5 (±12.4) years. AB were detected in 55.2% of the samples, giving a median concentration of 0.5 AB/mL (95th centile: 23.6 AB/mL; highest value: 164.5 AB/mL). The AB concentration exceeded 1 AB/mL in 39.4% and 5 AB/mL in 17.8%. A significant decrease from a geometric mean of 0.93 AB/mL in 1997 to 0.2 AB/mL in 2014 was apparent. High AB concentrations generally corresponded with occupations with (presumed) high asbestos exposure. AB concentrations were higher among patients with asbestosis and pleural plaques, when compared with other disease groups. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of participants with likely exposure to asbestos did not exhibit high AB counts. This retrospective study of a large clinical population supports the value of counting AB in BAL as a complementary approach to assess past exposure to asbestos. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. Prediction of Trend between Water Environment Pollution of D Lake and Death Rate of Malignancy in Population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李龙; 吴春松

    2003-01-01

    Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM(1.N) model for death rate of malignancy [ MR(t+1) = (9.9987E1 ± 5. 0001E2 + 10.8994E3+1. 1114E4+165.1029) · e-0.0070t -9. 9987E1 - 5. 0001E2 - 10. 8994E3 - 1. 1114E4] and GM(1,1) model for related factors [ E1(t+1) =52. 1214-46. 9468e -0. 0058t, E2(t+1)=4. 6114-4.5664e0.0015t, E3(t+1)=1.1389-1. 1212e0.0065t, E4(t+1 = 554. 5867-549. 8006e0.0016t], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted.

  20. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This report describes the results of a comparative study of bird survey methods undertaken for the purpose of improving assessments of the conservation status for the two endemic passerines on the Island of Nihoa—Nihoa Millerbird (Sylviidae: Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Fringilidae: Telespiza ultima; also referred herein as millerbird and finch)—both listed as endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Hawai`i Revised Statutes 195D. The current survey protocol, implemented since 1967, has produced a highly variable range of counts for both the millerbird and finch, making difficult assessments of population size and trend. This report details the analyses of bird survey data collected in 2010 and 2011 in which three survey methods were compared―strip-transect, line-transect, and point-transect sampling―and provides recommendations for improved survey methods and protocols. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS).

  1. Trends of benzodiazepine prescribing and the risk of hip fracture in elderly patients in Taiwan: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Agnes L F; Lin, Shun-Jin

    2010-03-01

    Abstract Objective. The aim of this study was to explore the trends of prescribing potentially inappropriate benzodiazepine use (PIBU) and the risk of fractures in an elderly population in Taiwan. Methods. Retrospective administrative database analysis was conducted. Outpatient claim data were retrieved from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID) between 2000 and 2003, which contains all inpatient and outpatient medical claims of approximately 23 million patients in Taiwan. All patients with the diagnosis of hip fractures (ICD codes) were identified from the database. The inappropriate use for the elderly was defined as a prescription with the dose of short- and long-acting BZD according to the 2003 version of Beers' criteria. Multiple logistic regressions were used to determine the association of PIBU with fractures. Results. A total of 62,023 elderly patients aged ≧65 years were retrieved from the database. The proportion of elderly patients taking short-and long-acting benzodiazepines declined significantly from 28.1 to 25% and 19.5 to 14.5% from 2000 to 2003, respectively (Pfractures (∼50%) was still statistically significant (adjusted OR in the four years studied: 1.57, 1.38, 1.68, 1.45) for elderly patients taking benzodiazepines in Taiwan. Conclusion. These findings suggest that the inappropriate use of benzodiazepine may be associated with the risk of fractures. Physicians should prescribe benzodiazepines appropriately for the elderly to minimize the risk of hip fractures.

  2. Dietary Intake according to Gender and Education: A Twenty-Year Trend in a Swiss Adult Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Rousi, Eirini; Paccaud, Fred; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Theler, Jean-Marc; Bochud, Murielle; Stringhini, Silvia; Guessous, Idris

    2015-11-18

    We assessed trends in dietary intake according to gender and education using repeated cross-sectional, population-based surveys conducted between 1993 and 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland (17,263 participants, 52.0 ± 10.6 years, 48% male). In 1993-1999, higher educated men had higher monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), carotene and vitamin D intakes than lower educated men, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. In 1993-1999, higher educated women had higher fiber, iron, carotene, vitamin D and alcohol intakes than lower educated women, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. Total energy, polyunsaturated fatty acids, retinol and alcohol intakes decreased, while mono/disaccharides, MUFA and carotene intake increased in both genders. Lower educated men had stronger decreases in saturated fatty acid (SFA) and calcium intakes than higher educated men: multivariate-adjusted slope and 95% confidence interval -0.11 (-0.15; -0.06) vs. -0.03 (-0.08; 0.02) g/day/year for SFA and -5.2 (-7.8; -2.7) vs. -1.03 (-3.8; 1.8) mg/day/year for calcium, p for interaction day/year, p for interaction = 0.002. We conclude that, in Switzerland, dietary intake evolved similarly between 1993 and 2012 in both educational groups. Educational differences present in 1993 persisted in 2012.

  3. Population based trends in mortality, morbidity and treatment for very preterm- and very low birth weight infants over 12 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüegger Christoph

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the last two decades, improvements in medical care have been associated with a significant increase and better outcome of very preterm (VP, Methods Our population-based observational cohort study used the Minimal Neonatal Data Set, a database maintained by the Swiss Society of Neonatology including information of all VP- and VLBW infants. Perinatal characteristics, mortality and morbidity rates and the survival free of major complications were analysed and their temporal trends evaluated. Results In 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008, a total number of 3090 infants were enrolled in the Network Database. At the same time the rate of VP- and VLBW neonates increased significantly from 0.87% in 1996 to 1.10% in 2008 (p Conclusions Over the 12-year observation period, the number of VP- and VLBW infants increased significantly. An unchanged overall mortality rate and an increase of survivors free of major complication resulted in a considerable net gain in infants with potentially good outcome.

  4. Neonatal and postneonatal mortality by maternal education a population-based study of trends in the Nordic countries, 1981 2000

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arntzen, Annett; Mortensen, Laust; Schnor, Ole

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study examined changes in the educational gradients in neonatal and postneonatal mortality over a 20-year period in the four largest Nordic countries. METHODS: The study populations were all live-born singleton infants with gestational age of at least 22 weeks from 1981 to 2000 (...... under study. Still, the inverse association between maternal education and RR of postneonatal death has become more pronounced in all Nordic countries....... (Finland 1987-2000). Information on births and infant deaths from the Medical Birth Registries was linked to information from census statistics. Numbers of eligible live-births were: Denmark 1 179 831, Finland 834 299 (1987-2000), Norway 1 017 168 and Sweden 1 971 645. Differences in mortality between...... educational groups, and the educational level increased in the study period. The time-trends differed between neonatal and postneonatal death. For neonatal death, both the absolute and relative educational differences decreased in Finland and Sweden, increased in Denmark, whereas in Norway a decrease...

  5. Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

    2001-09-01

    This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

  6. Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

    2011-01-01

    sampling using spatial replicates can be used to reliably and efficiently identify tiger population sources and help monitor metapopulations. Our results reinforce earlier findings that prey depletion and human disturbance are key drivers of local tiger extinctions and tigers can persist even in human-dominated landscapes through effective protection of source populations. Our approach facilitates efficient targeting of tiger conservation interventions and, more generally, provides a basis for the reliable integration of large carnivore monitoring data between local and landscape scales.

  7. Secular Trends in Utilization of Critical Care Services Among Candidemia-Associated Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-01-01

    half of the last decade. Substantial heterogeneity was noted in the rate of rise in the incidence of C-ICU across examined age groups. Further study in other populations is required to corroborate our findings and examine the sources of the observed trends.

  8. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000-2007: a population modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Bajekal

    occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

  9. WHITE-CLAWED CRAYFISH IN MUDDY HABITATS: MONITORING THE POPULATION IN THE RIVER IVEL, BEDFORDSHIRE, UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PEAY S.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available White-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes are usually associated with stony substrates, tree roots, or refuges in submerged banks. The River Ivel has the last known population of white-clawed crayfish in Bedfordshire. Prior to 2005, much of the bed comprised uniform silt, plus leaf-litter. Stands of reedmace Typha latifolia and other emergent vegetation were localised in less shaded areas. Initial survey results suggested a population at low abundance. A low-cost monitoring strategy was started in 2001 and continued three times a year to 2005, using engineering bricks, which offer artificial refuges. Crayfish are counted when bricks are lifted periodically. De-silting of c. 430 m river was carried out in February 2005, to improve habitat and to maintain the flood capacity in the channel upstream of a mill weir. Additional bricks were deployed a few weeks in advance of de-silting, then bricks and crayfish were lifted prior to dredging and were returned the next day. Starting upstream, soft, wet mud was dredged out, placed on the bank and searched manually for crayfish. Banks, tree roots and shallow margins were left undisturbed. In all, 4,142 crayfish were found in dredgings from a 430 m length of the mid channel. Crayfish were strongly associated with emergent vegetation, but many were present below the surface of the silt. Crayfish released in the dredged channel immediately burrowed into the silt retained on the channel margins. Monitoring after dredging showed no change in abundance in the main area with in-bank refuges and lots of bricks, but there was an increase in occupancy of bricks in an area where most crayfish had been in emergent vegetation.

  10. Monitoring serum PCB levels in the adult population of the Canary Islands (Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Burillo-Putze

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs are persistent organic chemicals that have been detected in human serum or tissues all over the world. These pollutants could exert a number of deleterious effects on humans and wildlife, including carcinogenic processes. The Spanish population of the Canary Islands was evaluated with respect to PCB levels more than ten years ago showing lower levels than other Western populations. The objective of our study was to assess the current level of contamination by PCBs showed by this population. We measured serum PCBs in a sample of healthy adult subjects (206 serum samples from subjects with an average age of 66 years old to evaluate the potential modification of PCB serum levels in this population during the last decade. PCB congeners (28, 52, 77, 81, 101, 105, 114, 118, 123, 126, 138, 153, 156, 157, 167, 169, 180, and 189 were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS. Our results showed that PCB residues were found in 84% of serum samples analyzed, the congeners 28, 153 and 180 being the most frequently detected and at the highest median values (0.1 ng/mL. In addition, the median concentration of the sum of those PCBs considered as markers of environmental contamination by these chemicals (Marker-PCBs was 0.6 ng/mL, reaching values as high as as 2.6 ng/mL in the 95th percentile. Levels of the sum of PCBs with toxic effects similar to dioxins (dioxin-like PCBs reached median values of 0.4 ng/mL in the 95th percentile. The reported levels are similar to those described previously in this population more than ten years ago, in the sense that the inhabitants of the Canary Archipelago show levels of PCB contamination lower than the majority of populations from developed countries. These findings suggest that currently there is not any active source of these chemicals in this archipelago. Nevertheless, as foods seem to be a relevant source for these compounds, Public Health authorities should monitor the

  11. Trends in Breast Reconstruction by Ethnicity: An Institutional Review Centered on the Treatment of an Urban Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodby, Katherine A; Danielson, Kirstie K; Shay, Elizabeth; Robinson, Emilie; Benjamin, Martin; Antony, Anuja K

    2016-06-01

    Previous studies have investigated reconstructive decisions after mastectomy and such studies document a preference among African American women for autologous tissue-based procedures and among Latin American women for implant-based reconstructions, however, there is a paucity of studies evaluating the current relationship between ethnicity and reconstructive preferences. This institutional review provides a unique, up-to-date evaluation of an understudied urban population composed of majority ethnic minority patients and explores reconstructive trends. Consecutive breast reconstruction patients were entered into a prospectively maintained database at the University of Illinois at Chicago and affiliate hospitals between July 2010 and October 2013. Demographics and oncologic characteristics including tumor stage, pathology, BRCA status, and adjuvant treatment were reviewed, and reconstructive trends were assessed by racial group with a focus on reconstructive procedure, mastectomy volume, and implant characteristics. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS (version 9.2). One-hundred and sixty breast reconstructions were performed in 105 women; of which 50 per cent were African American, 26 per cent Hispanic, 22 per cent Caucasian, and 2 per cent Asian. Age, tumor stage, prevalence of triple negative disease, chemotherapy, and radiation treatment was comparable between groups. Rates of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus were slightly higher in African American and Hispanic cohorts, with more African American patients having one or more of these comorbidities as compared with the Caucasian and Hispanic cohorts (P = 0.047). Despite comparable positive BRCA testing rates, significant differences were seen in the percentage of bilateral mastectomy; 68 per cent African American, 48 per cent Caucasian, and 30 per cent Hispanic (P = 0.004). Hispanics predominantly underwent flap-based reconstruction (56%), while African American (74%) and Caucasian (60

  12. A web-based relational database for monitoring and analyzing mosquito population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sucaet, Yves; Van Hemert, John; Tucker, Brad; Bartholomay, Lyric

    2008-07-01

    Mosquito population dynamics have been monitored on an annual basis in the state of Iowa since 1969. The primary goal of this project was to integrate light trap data from these efforts into a centralized back-end database and interactive website that is available through the internet at http://iowa-mosquito.ent.iastate.edu. For comparative purposes, all data were categorized according to the week of the year and normalized according to the number of traps running. Users can readily view current, weekly mosquito abundance compared with data from previous years. Additional interactive capabilities facilitate analyses of the data based on mosquito species, distribution, or a time frame of interest. All data can be viewed in graphical and tabular format and can be downloaded to a comma separated value (CSV) file for import into a spreadsheet or more specialized statistical software package. Having this long-term dataset in a centralized database/website is useful for informing mosquito and mosquito-borne disease control and for exploring the ecology of the species represented therein. In addition to mosquito population dynamics, this database is available as a standardized platform that could be modified and applied to a multitude of projects that involve repeated collection of observational data. The development and implementation of this tool provides capacity for the user to mine data from standard spreadsheets into a relational database and then view and query the data in an interactive website.

  13. Dworshak Reservoir Kokanee Population Monitoring: Project Progress Report, 1999 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiolie, Melo; Vidergar, Dmitri T.; Harryman, Bill

    2001-08-01

    We used split-beam hydroacoustics and trawling to monitor the kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka population in Dworshak Reservoir during 1999. Estimated abundance of kokanee has continued to increase since the high entrainment losses in the spring of 1996. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 1,545,000 kokanee and rainbow trout O. mykiss in Dworshak Reservoir during July 1999. This included 1,144,000 age-0 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 42%), 212,000 age-1 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 15%), and 189,000 age-2 kokanee and stocked rainbow trout (90% CI {+-} 39%). Rainbow trout could not be distinguished from the age-2 kokanee in the echograms since they were of similar size. Age-0 kokanee ranged in length from 40 mm to 90 mm, age-1 from 193 mm to 212 mm, and age-2 kokanee from 219 mm to 336 mm. These sizes indicated kokanee are still growing well. Discharge of water from Dworshak Dam during 1999 did not stop the expansion of the kokanee population based on these results. Counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams exceeded 11,000 fish. This index also showed a marked increase from last year's 660 spawning kokanee or the 1997 total of 144 spawning kokanee.

  14. Blood lead levels in the adult Victorian population: results from the Victorian Health Monitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsall, Liza M; de Gooyer, Tanyth E; Carey, Marion; Vaughan, Loretta; Ansari, Zahid

    2013-06-01

    To estimate blood lead levels (BLLs) in the adult Victorian population and compare the distribution of BLLs with the current national reference level to better inform public health prevention and management of lead toxicity. Population-based cross-sectional health measurement survey of 50 randomly selected Census Collection Districts (CDs) throughout Victoria. The Victorian Health Monitor (VHM) was conducted over 12 months from May 2009 to April 2010. One eligible person (aged 18-75 years) from each household selected within each CD was randomly selected to participate. Persons with an intellectual disability and pregnant women were excluded from the sampling frame. BLLs were obtained from 3,622 of the 3,653 (99%) VHM participants. The geometric mean and median BLLs from the adult sample were 0.070 μmol/L (95%CI, 0.068-0.073) and 0.05 μmol/L (range: 0.05 to 1.22 μmol/L), respectively. Elevated BLLs (≥0.483 μmol/L or ≥10 μg/dL) were identified in 19 participants (0.7%; 95%CI, 0.3-1.6). Additionally, 86 participants (1.8%; 95%CI, 1.3-2.4) were identified with BLLs between 0.242 and <0.483 μmol/L (5 to <10 μg/dL). The geometric mean BLL was significantly higher for males, compared with females (0.077 μmol/L vs 0.064 μmol/L; p<0.001). BLLs increased significantly with age for both sexes. The first population estimates of BLLs in Victorian adults indicate the average adult BLL to be well below the current national reference level. However, some groups of the population have BLLs at which adverse effects may occur. Implications : The results provide baseline estimates for future population health surveillance and comparison with studies of at-risk groups. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

  15. Urinary creatinine concentrations in the U.S. population: implications for urinary biologic monitoring measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Dana B; Wilder, Lynn C; Caudill, Samuel P; Gonzalez, Amanda J; Needham, Lance L; Pirkle, James L

    2005-02-01

    Biologic monitoring (i.e., biomonitoring) is used to assess human exposures to environmental and workplace chemicals. Urinary biomonitoring data typically are adjusted to a constant creatinine concentration to correct for variable dilutions among spot samples. Traditionally, this approach has been used in population groups without much diversity. The inclusion of multiple demographic groups in studies using biomonitoring for exposure assessment has increased the variability in the urinary creatinine levels in these study populations. Our objectives were to document the normal range of urinary creatinine concentrations among various demographic groups, evaluate the impact that variations in creatinine concentrations can have on classifying exposure status of individuals in epidemiologic studies, and recommend an approach using multiple regression to adjust for variations in creatinine in multivariate analyses. We performed a weighted multivariate analysis of urinary creatinine concentrations in 22,245 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) and established reference ranges (10th-90th percentiles) for each demographic and age category. Significant predictors of urinary creatinine concentration included age group, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and fat-free mass. Time of day that urine samples were collected made a small but statistically significant difference in creatinine concentrations. For an individual, the creatinine-adjusted concentration of an analyte should be compared with a "reference" range derived from persons in a similar demographic group (e.g., children with children, adults with adults). For multiple regression analysis of population groups, we recommend that the analyte concentration (unadjusted for creatinine) should be included in the analysis with urinary creatinine added as a separate independent variable. This approach allows the urinary analyte concentration to be appropriately adjusted for

  16. Unusual trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older: A population based study of national congenital anomaly data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Deepa Balachandran; Tucker, David; Hughes, Rhian; Greenacre, Judith; Morgan, Margery

    2015-07-01

    Trisomy 13 is one of the three autosomal trisomies compatible with viability. It is associated with structural anomalies, learning disability and poor survival. Advanced maternal age is the most frequently suggested risk factor. This is a population based register study to investigate the temporal trends of trisomy 13. Chromosomal trisomies were reviewed by the Welsh Congenital Anomaly Register using data from 1998-2012. All pregnancy outcomes were included. Prevalence rates and trends for all cases and for cases with mothers aged below 35 years and those aged 35 years and older were plotted for trisomy 13, 18 and 21. Possible risk factors contributing to the trend in older mothers were compared in the early and late period of the study. There were 124 cases of trisomy 13 over the 15 year period with 55 mothers aged 35 years and older. Overall prevalence was 2.5 per 10,000 total births. A significant declining trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older (χ(2) trend = 4.98, p=0.026) was noted. Rates for younger mothers were lower and remained stable. Prevalence of trisomy 18 and 21 in older mothers remained stable. The unexpected declining trend in trisomy 13 in older mothers could not be explained by the risk factors examined in this study. There have been no other reports of trends in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in older mothers in recent years. There is further need for surveillance of trends in future and in other populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Time trends in the association of ESRD incidence with area-level poverty in the US population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrity, Bridget H; Kramer, Holly; Vellanki, Kavitha; Leehey, David; Brown, Julia; Shoham, David A

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the temporal trends of the association between area-level poverty status and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We hypothesized that the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence has increased significantly over time. Patient data from the United States Renal Data System were linked with data from the 2000 and 2010 US census. Area-level poverty was defined as living in a zip code-defined area with ≥20% of households living below the federal poverty line. Negative binomial regression models were created to examine the association between area-level poverty status and ESRD incidence by time period in the US adult population while simultaneously adjusting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code. Time was categorized as January 1, 1995 through December 31, 2004 (Period 1) and January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2010 (Period 2). The percentage of adults initiating dialysis with area-level poverty increased from 27.4% during Period 1 to 34.0% in Period 2. After accounting for the distribution of age, sex, and race/ethnicity within a zip code, area-level poverty status was associated with a 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22, 1.25)-fold higher ESRD incidence. However, this association differed by time period with 1.04-fold (95% CI 1.02, 1.05) higher ESRD incidence associated with poverty status for Period 2 compared with the association between ESRD and poverty status in Period 1. Area-level poverty and its association with ESRD incidence is not static over time.

  18. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid populations: cod, haddock, whiting, and Norway pout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marty, Lise; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Ernande, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    environmental variables exhibiting a temporal trend suggest that, despite some evidence of environmental effects, PMRN trends were mostly independent of growth-independent plasticity in haddock, whiting, and male cod, but not in female cod. According to these findings, evolution of maturation, potentially...

  19. Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Yang, Wen-Hsi; Arab, Ali

    2016-01-01

    A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

  20. 植物种群生态研究进展%Trends and Advances in Researches on Plant Population Ecology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟章成; 曾波

    2001-01-01

    The trends and advances in all aspects of plant population ecology over past 20 years are summarized as follows:   (1) Due to the introduction and progress of molecular biology and biotechnology, plant population physiological ecology not only moves forward to the studies of large scale, but also to the studies on levels of organ, cell and molecule.   (2) Studies of plant population reproductive ecology are chiefly focused on the aspects of reproductive allocation and reproductive effort, currencies in reprod uctive allocation, reproductive value, life history evolution, reproductive timi ng and reproductive frequency, etc.   (3) As to clonal plant ecology, the research of it mainly focuses on clonality, physiological integration, clonal growth patterns, clonal growth forms, hierarch ical selection models and spatial mobility, etc.   (4) Modular dynamics, relations between morphology and modular dynamics are much considered in plant modular ecology.   (5) Population genetical structure, variance, differentiation, adaptation and it s relations to environments, ecotypes and their genetic background, and polymorp hism, etc. are chiefly researched in genetical ecology.   (6) Foraging behaviour is the most focal aspect in study of plant behavioural ec ology presently. Owing to this situation, resource allocation patterns, phenotyp ic plasticity, resource heterogeneity, foraging behaviour and evolution are bein g concentrated.   (7) Plant population demography mainly touches on diagrammatic models and transi tion matrix models.   (8) Plant population physiological ecology, reproductive ecology, genetical ecol ogy and population dynamics are all related to some extent to molecular mechanis ms, therefore are becoming the research front of plant population ecology.%对植物种群生态学近20年在其各个领域所取得的进展及其动态作如下归纳:(1)植物种群生理生态学在向宏观方向发展的同时, 由于分子生

  1. Application of a point of care creatinine device for trend monitoring in kidney transplant patients: Fit for purpose?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, C.L. van; Boog, P.J.M. van der; Romijn, F.P.H.T.M.; Schenk, P.W.; Dijk, S. van; Rövekamp, T.J.M.; Kessler, A.; Siekmann, L.; Rabelink, T.J.; Cobbaert, C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The StatSensor® Xpress-i™, a point-of-care system for blood creatinine measurement, offers patients the possibility of self-monitoring creatinine. In this study, the analytical performance of the StatSensor® for both detecting current renal function and monitoring renal (dys)function in

  2. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aubail, Aurore, E-mail: aaubail@yahoo.fr [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France); Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank [National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Simon-Bouhet, Benoit; Caurant, Florence [Littoral, Environnement et Societes (LIENSs), UMR 6250, CNRS-Universite de La Rochelle, 2 rue Olympe de Gouges, F-17000 La Rochelle (France)

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ({sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and nitrogen ({sup 15}N/{sup 14}N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in {delta}{sup 15}N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in {delta}{sup 13}C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  3. An evaluation of teeth of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from Greenland as a matrix to monitor spatial and temporal trends of mercury and stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubail, Aurore; Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank; Simon-Bouhet, Benoît; Caurant, Florence

    2010-10-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in teeth of ringed seals from Qeqertarsuaq, central West Greenland (1982 to 2006) and Ittoqqortoormiit, central East Greenland (1986 to 2006). Stable isotopic ratios of carbon ((13)C/(12)C) and nitrogen ((15)N/(14)N) were determined as well to provide insights into diet variations between regions or through time. Mercury concentrations decreased the first years of life of the animals suggesting that Hg had been transferred from the mother to the foetus and newborn. The Hg concentrations in teeth were significantly lesser in ringed seals from central West Greenland compared to those from central East Greenland. Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic values measured in the animals differed also significantly between the two regions. Increasing temporal trends of dental Hg concentrations between 1994 and 2006 were observed in ringed seals from both central West Greenland and central East Greenland. These increases were attributed to global changes in environmental Hg levels since no temporal trends in delta(15)N values were found to support the hypothesis of a diet shift over time. Furthermore, a decreasing temporal trend in delta(13)C values was observed in the teeth of seals from central East Greenland, and explained by a likely change over time towards more pelagic feeding habits; alternatively, the so-known Seuss effect was thought to be responsible for this decrease. Finally, it was concluded that the tooth of ringed seal was a good monitoring tissue to assess Hg trends.

  4. Trends in DDT and pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae s.s. populations from urban and agro-industrial settings in southern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerah-Hinzoumbé Clément

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pyrethroid insecticides are widely used for insect pest control in Cameroon. In certain insect species, particularly the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, resistance to this class of insecticides is a source of great concern and needs to be monitored in order to sustain the efficacy of vector control operations in the fields. This study highlights trends in DDT and pyrethroid resistance in wild An. gambiae populations from South Cameroon. Methods Mosquitoes were collected between 2001 and 2007 in four sites in South Cameroon, where insecticides are used for agricultural or personal protection purposes. Insecticide use was documented in each site by interviewing residents. Batches of 2-4 days old adult female mosquitoes reared from larval collections were tested for susceptibility to DDT, permethrin and deltamethrin using standard WHO procedures. Control, dead and survivors mosquitoes from bioassays were identified by PCR-RFLP and characterized for the kdr mutations using either the AS-PCR or the HOLA method. Results Four chemical insecticide groups were cited in the study sites: organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates and pyrethroids. These chemicals were used for personal, crop or wood protection. In the four An. gambiae populations tested, significant variation in resistance levels, molecular forms composition and kdr frequencies were recorded in the time span of the study. Increases in DDT and pyrethroid resistance, as observed in most areas, were generally associated with an increase in the relative frequency of the S molecular form carrying the kdr mutations at higher frequencies. In Mangoum, however, where only the S form was present, a significant increase in the frequency of kdr alleles between 2003 to 2007 diverged with a decrease of the level of resistance to DDT and pyrethroids. Analyses of the kdr frequencies in dead and surviving mosquitoes showed partial correlation between the kdr genotypes and resistance

  5. Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

    2016-09-01

    The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

  6. An Evaluation of Commercial Pedometers for Monitoring Slow Walking Speed Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beevi, Femina H A; Miranda, Jorge; Pedersen, Christian F; Wagner, Stefan

    2016-05-01

    Pedometers are considered desirable devices for monitoring physical activity. Two population groups of interest include patients having undergone surgery in the lower extremities or who are otherwise weakened through disease, medical treatment, or surgery procedures, as well as the slow walking senior population. For these population groups, pedometers must be able to perform reliably and accurately at slow walking speeds. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the step count accuracy of three commercially available pedometers, the Yamax (Tokyo, Japan) Digi-Walker(®) SW-200 (YM), the Omron (Kyoto, Japan) HJ-720 (OM), and the Fitbit (San Francisco, CA) Zip (FB), at slow walking speeds, specifically at 1, 2, and 3 km/h, and to raise awareness of the necessity of focusing research on step-counting devices and algorithms for slow walking populations. Fourteen participants 29.93 ±4.93 years of age were requested to walk on a treadmill at the three specified speeds, in four trials of 100 steps each. The devices were worn by the participants on the waist belt. The pedometer counts were recorded, and the error percentage was calculated. The error rate of all three evaluated pedometers decreased with the increase of speed: at 1 km/h the error rates varied from 87.11% (YM) to 95.98% (FB), at 2 km/h the error rates varied from 17.27% (FB) to 46.46% (YM), and at 3 km/h the error rates varied from 22.46% (YM) to a slight overcount of 0.70% (FB). It was observed that all the evaluated devices have high error rates at 1 km/h and mixed error rates at 2 km/h, and at 3 km/h the error rates are the smallest of the three assessed speeds, with the OM and the FB having a slight overcount. These results show that research on pedometers' software and hardware should focus more on accurate step detection at slow walking speeds.

  7. OBESITY PHENOTYPE INFLUENCES TREND IN PULMONARY FUNCTION INDICES RECOVERY FOLLOWING ABDOMINAL SURGERY: PRELIMINARY REPORT FROM A NIGERIAN POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinremi, A A; Orotokun, A E; Sanya, A O

    2014-09-01

    Obesity phenotypes are known to have varying effects on pulmonary function but their effects on trends of pulmonary function indices' recovery among abdominal surgery patients is unclear. To investigate the influence of obesity phenotype on pulmonary function trend among abdominal surgery patients. An observational study involving 28 female patients aged 20-60 years who were never-smokers. Participants were classified into four groups namely: healthy BMI without abdominal obesity; healthy BMI with abdominal obesity; overweight/obese without abdominal obesity; and overweight/obese with abdominal obesity. Pulmonary function indices (FEV1, FVC and PEF) were taken day-1 pre-op; 5(th), 6(th) and 7(th) day post-surgery. Data were summarized using mean and standard deviation, while Kruskal-Wallis and Jonckheere trend test were used to test for differences and trend across the groups at p trend test showed that obesity pattern had significant effect on the trend of FEV1, FVC and PER with group I having the highest values, followed by group III and group II, while group IV had the lowest values. Obesity phenotype had significant effect on trend of pulmonary function indices among participants. Patients with abdominal obesity, irrespective of BMI, had poor pulmonary function.

  8. Long-term trends and patterns of fatal traumatic brain injuries in the pediatric and adolescent population of austria in 1980-2012: analysis of 33 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majdan, Marek; Mauritz, Walter; Rusnak, Martin; Brazinova, Alexandra; Rehorcikova, Veronika; Leitgeb, Johannes

    2014-06-01

    Traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) are of special concern in the pediatric and adolescent population because of high incidence, mortality, and potential years of life lost (PYLL). Knowledge on causes and mortality trends is essential for effective prevention. The aim of this study was to analyze the long-term trends and causes of TBI-related mortality between 1980 and 2012 in the pediatric and adolescent populations of Austria. Death certificate data on TBI-related deaths of children and adolescents 0-19 years of age and exact population numbers were obtained from the Austrian Statistical Office. Five age groups were created. Mortality trends and causes of TBI were analyzed. PYLL were used to indicate the public health impact. Of 5319 identified TBI-related deaths, 75% were male victims. The annual mortality rates per 100,000 between 1980 and 2012 decreased from 25 to 2.6 in males, from 8.5 to 1.0 in females, and from 16.9 to 1.8 in the total population. Those 15-19 years of age had the highest mortalities, followed by 0-2 years of age. Over 80% of deaths were caused by accidents, inflicted TBIs were most common in those 0-2 years of age, and traffic accidents in those 15-19 years of age. In the studied period, 295,793 PYLL could be attributed to TBIs. Measures to prevent traffic accidents contributed significantly to the decrease of mortality and PYLL, especially in 15- to 19-year-old men. Causes and trends of TBI-related mortality exhibit age-group-specific patterns, and this knowledge could contribute to planning further preventive action to reduce TBI fatalities in the studied population.

  9. Dealing with incomplete and variable detectability in multi-year, multi-site monitoring of ecological populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    An ecological monitoring program should be viewed as a component of a larger framework designed to advance science and/or management, rather than as a stand-alone activity. Monitoring targets (the ecological variables of interest; e.g. abundance or occurrence of a species) should be set based on the needs of that framework (Nichols and Williams 2006; e.g. Chapters 2–4). Once such monitoring targets are set, the subsequent step in monitoring design involves consideration of the field and analytical methods that will be used to measure monitoring targets with adequate accuracy and precision. Long-term monitoring programs will involve replication of measurements over time, and possibly over space; that is, one location or each of multiple locations will be monitored multiple times, producing a collection of site visits (replicates). Clearly this replication is important for addressing spatial and temporal variability in the ecological resources of interest (Chapters 7–10), but it is worth considering how this replication can further be exploited to increase the effectiveness of monitoring. In particular, defensible monitoring of the majority of animal, and to a lesser degree plant, populations and communities will generally require investigators to account for imperfect detection (Chapters 4, 18). Raw indices of population state variables, such as abundance or occupancy (sensu MacKenzie et al. 2002), are rarely defensible when detection probabilities are McKelvey and Pearson 2001, Johnson 2008), we do not attempt to resolve this debate here. Rather, we are more apt to agree with MacKenzie and Kendall (2002) that the burden of proof ought to be on the assertion that detection probabilities are constant. Furthermore, given the wide variety of field methods available for estimating detection probabilities and the inability for an investigator to know, a priori, if detection probabilities will be constant over time and space, we believe that development of monitoring

  10. 湖北省人口老龄化发展趋势和对策研究%Trends and Countermeasures of Hubei Province aging population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈显友; 鲍谦; 赵琛徽

    2014-01-01

    随着经济发展和社会进步,世界人口老龄化趋势越来越明显,我国的计划生育政策影响了人口老龄化的速度,人口迁移影响了人口老龄化的结构。本文运用队列动态仿真人口预测模型对湖北省2050年以前的人口老龄化趋势进行预测,并在此基础上分析湖北省的人口老龄化特征和未来发展趋势,并提出相应的对策建议。%With the economic development and social progress,the Aging population trends of the world are becoming evident. Chi-na’s family planning policy affects the speed of population aging,population migration affects the aging population structure. In this paper,we use the queue dynamic simulation model to predict the aging population trend forecasting and analysis of population ag-ing characteristics in Hubei Province in future before 2050. Based on this,we put forward corresponding countermeasures.

  11. Comparison of 2 Population Health Management Approaches to Increase Vitamin B12 Monitoring in Patients Taking Metformin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, David E; Beatty, Stuart J; Grever, Gail M; Lehman, Amy; Barnes, Kelli D

    2016-10-01

    Population health management uses proactive, targeted interventions to improve health outcomes. To compare the effectiveness of and time required for 2 pharmacist-driven population health management interventions to improve vitamin B12 monitoring in patients taking metformin. Physicians were randomized to 1 of 2 population health management interventions. For all patients of physicians assigned to the patient portal intervention, a pharmacist communicated need for vitamin B12 monitoring directly to the patient using an electronic patient portal. For all patients of physicians assigned to the office visit intervention, a pharmacist communicated monitoring recommendations to the physician prior to a scheduled office visit through the electronic health record. The proportion of patients in each group who received vitamin B12 monitoring 30 days after the intervention was quantified. A total of 489 patients of 26 physicians within 5 general internal medicine clinics who had taken metformin for at least 1 year and had not received vitamin B12 monitoring within the past year were identified. The intervention delivered as part of an office visit resulted in increased serum vitamin B12 monitoring compared with the intervention using electronic communication through a patient portal (odds ratio = 4.05; 95% CI = 1.22, 13.46; P = 0.03). The office visit intervention and the patient portal intervention took an average of 8.2 and 0.9 minutes per patient, respectively. Population health management completed during the course of office visits was more effective at increasing vitamin B12 monitoring and required more time than an intervention delivered through an electronic patient portal. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. Temporal trends in age and size at maturation of four North Sea gadid populations: cod, haddock, whiting, and Norway pout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marty, Lise; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Ernande, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    , phenotypic plasticity, and evolution to these trends were assessed. First, maturation trends were extricated from demographic effects and growth-dependent plasticity by estimating probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). PMRN midpoints have significantly shifted downwards at most ages for cod......, haddock, and whiting, but not for Norway pout. Second, increased temperature and food abundance, loosened trophic competition, and relaxed social pressure may also trigger gr