WorldWideScience

Sample records for monitor population trends

  1. Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

    2015-01-01

    Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. Technical specifications for monitoring Community trends in zoonotic agents in foodstuffs and animal populations on request from EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borck Høg, Birgitte; Chriél, Mariann; Korsgaard, Helle

    of criteria for the selection of the zoonotic agent/animal or food category combinations where trend analyses would be justified. Based on data available from 2004 to 2007, the following combinations are suggested for trend analyses: Salmonella in fresh broiler and pig meat, flocks of laying hens and broilers......Technical specifications are proposed for the monitoring of temporal trends in zoonotic agents in animal and food populations at Community or Member State group level in the framework of Directive 2003/99/EC. Two types of trend monitoring are identified: trend watching, which covers general...

  3. Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

    2017-01-01

    Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

  4. Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

    2017-01-01

    Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

  5. Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

    2017-01-01

    Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

  6. Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen B Strier

    Full Text Available Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides. In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

  7. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  8. Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2016-01-01

    Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count

  9. Biological monitoring and selected trends in environmental quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suffern, J.S.; West, D.C.; Kemp, H.T.; Burgess, R.L.

    1976-10-01

    Under a contract with the President's Council on Environmental Quality, the National Inventory of Selected Biological Monitoring Programs at ORNL was used to identify documented environmental trends. Fish population trends were described for the Great Lakes and the Colorado River system. Trends in amphibian populations in the northeast were examined and correlated with acid precipitation. Increases in breeding success among large birds of prey were correlated with reductions in ambient levels of DDT and its residues. Geographic variation in PCB contamination was examined along with differences between aquatic and terrestrial contamination levels. Changes in air quality were documented, and their effects on plant viability were outlined. Trends in the biological effects of environmental deposition of lead were documented. Long-term changes in forest structure in the southeast were presented, and a general reduction in wildlife habitat, associated with land use practices, was documented for several areas in the US

  10. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  11. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  12. When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

    2010-01-01

    The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

  13. Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing

  14. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  15. Population Trends and the Status of Population Policy in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogge, John R.

    1982-01-01

    The major trend towards worldwide easing of the birthrate does not include the current population patterns in Africa. The population policies of African nations range along a continuum from totally pronatal to strongly antinatal. However, even antinatal policies have had little effect on the overall spiralling upward population trend. (JA)

  16. Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G W; Tan, P C

    1985-09-01

    Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

  17. Population and trends in the global mean temperature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Fisher ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population

  18. Integrating population and genetic monitoring to understand changes in the abundance of a threatened seabird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalina Vásquez-Carrillo; R. William Henry; Laird Henkel; M. Zachariah. Peery

    2013-01-01

    Population monitoring programs for threatened species are rarely designed to disentangle the effects of movements from changes in birth and death rates on estimated trends in abundance. Here, we illustrate how population and genetic monitoring can be integrated to understand the cause of large changes in the abundance of a threatened species of seabird, the Marbled...

  19. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  20. Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Beirne, Katherine F.; Hoffman, Roger A.; Griffin, Paul C.; Baccus, William T.; Fieberg, John

    2012-01-01

    Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

  1. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  2. 40 CFR 52.140 - Monitoring transportation trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Monitoring transportation trends. 52.140 Section 52.140 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) APPROVAL AND PROMULGATION OF IMPLEMENTATION PLANS Arizona § 52.140 Monitoring transportation...

  3. Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050

    OpenAIRE

    Chen Wei; Liu Jinju

    2009-01-01

    Using China's 2000 census data, this paper conducts population projection under different fertility scenarios to gauge the likely trends in China's future population change. The range of fertility assumptions captures the uncertainty of current fertility estimates as well as the likely trends under the family planning policy and economic development. Only one mortality scenario is applied and net international migration is assumed to be null in the population projection. Future life tables ar...

  4. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  5. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  6. Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Need, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

  7. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  8. Research Note Identifying key grazing indicators to monitor trends in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Research Note Identifying key grazing indicators to monitor trends in the veld condition of Lambert's Bay Strandveld, South Africa. ... from which a minimum number of species necessary to monitor trends in the condition of the veld were determined, making it user-friendly for land-users, extension officers and others. The key ...

  9. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieberg, John R; Shertzer, Kyle W; Conn, Paul B; Noyce, Karen V; Garshelis, David L

    2010-08-12

    Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex) are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus) in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008), data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success), and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002). We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable framework for synthesizing age-at-harvest data, periodic large-scale abundance estimates, and

  10. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Jin, Dao-Chao; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-04-01

    Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012-2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82-3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27-9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71-26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63-19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48-84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36-412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  11. Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

  12. Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maceira, Monica [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Blom, Philip Stephen [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Maccarthy, Jonathan K. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Marcillo, Omar Eduardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Euler, Garrett Gene [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Begnaud, Michael Lee [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ford, Sean R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Orris, Gregory J. [Naval Research Laboratory; Foxe, Michael P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Arrowsmith, Stephen J. [Sandia National Laboratory; Merchant, B. John [Sandia National Laboratory; Slinkard, Megan E. [Sandia National Laboratory

    2017-06-01

    This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the document for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.

  13. Monitoring Trends in Insecticide Resistance of Field Populations of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) in Guizhou Province, China, 2012–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jian-Xue; Li, Wen-Hong; Cheng, Ying; Li, Feng-Liang; Ye, Zhao-Chun

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is a migratory insect that is one of the most important pest species on rice in many Asian countries. Control of S. furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) primarily depends on the use of chemical insecticides, and with this extensive reliance on pesticides, determining the degree of resistance of S. furcifera populations to the chemicals used for its control is essential. In this study, the resistance level to six conventional insecticides in five populations of S. furcifera from Guizhou Province was monitored yearly using the rice-stem dipping method in 2012–2015 to precisely understand current resistance levels and to estimate trends in the development of insecticide resistance in S. furcifera in Guizhou. Overall, S. furcifera from five regions in Guizhou showed a trend toward decreased susceptibility to isoprocarb (resistance ratio [RR] 0.82–3.59), susceptibility to low resistance against thiamethoxam (RR 0.27–9.69), susceptibility to moderate resistance to imidacloprid (RR 0.71–26.06), and decreased susceptibility to moderate resistance to chlorpyrifos (RR 4.63–19.58). The resistance to pymetrozine (RR 10.48–84.65) was moderate to high, and that to buprofezin (RR 6.36–412.43) was low to very high. In conclusion, the use of buprofezin and pymetrozine to control S. furcifera should be reduced in Guizhou Province, whereas prudent use at a reasonable frequency of chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid can continue. Isoprocarb and thiamethoxam are the best choices for effective management of S. furcifera. Rotations using alternative insecticides with different modes of action are recommended for regions in which resistance is at a moderate level. PMID:28334150

  14. Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

    1991-02-01

    The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

  15. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  16. 25 years acidification monitoring in Bavaria. Trends and developments; 25 Jahre Versauerungsmonitoring in Bayern. Trends und Entwicklungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheel, Thorsten

    2015-07-15

    In Bavaria, the development of the atmospheric caused acidification within all relevant environmental compartments (soil, water, air) is monitored by an intensive monitoring for more than 25 years. This report covers the trends and developments of chemical and biological indicators of flowing waters, groundwater and lakes are summarized evaluated and displayed. [German] In Bayern wird seit mehr als 25 Jahren die Entwicklung der atmosphaerisch bedingten Versauerung innerhalb aller betroffenen Umweltkompartimente (Boden, Wasser, Luft) durch ein intensives Monitoring ueberwacht. In diesem Bericht sind die Trends und Entwicklungen chemischer und biologischer Indikatoren der Fliessgewaesser, Grundwaesser und Seen zusammenfassend ausgewertet und dargestellt.

  17. Integrated population modeling of black bears in Minnesota: implications for monitoring and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R Fieberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wildlife populations are difficult to monitor directly because of costs and logistical challenges associated with collecting informative abundance data from live animals. By contrast, data on harvested individuals (e.g., age and sex are often readily available. Increasingly, integrated population models are used for natural resource management because they synthesize various relevant data into a single analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the performance of integrated population models applied to black bears (Ursus americanus in Minnesota, USA. Models were constructed using sex-specific age-at-harvest matrices (1980-2008, data on hunting effort and natural food supplies (which affects hunting success, and statewide mark-recapture estimates of abundance (1991, 1997, 2002. We compared this approach to Downing reconstruction, a commonly used population monitoring method that utilizes only age-at-harvest data. We first conducted a large-scale simulation study, in which our integrated models provided more accurate estimates of population trends than did Downing reconstruction. Estimates of trends were robust to various forms of model misspecification, including incorrectly specified cub and yearling survival parameters, age-related reporting biases in harvest data, and unmodeled temporal variability in survival and harvest rates. When applied to actual data on Minnesota black bears, the model predicted that harvest rates were negatively correlated with food availability and positively correlated with hunting effort, consistent with independent telemetry data. With no direct data on fertility, the model also correctly predicted 2-point cycles in cub production. Model-derived estimates of abundance for the most recent years provided a reasonable match to an empirical population estimate obtained after modeling efforts were completed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Integrated population modeling provided a reasonable

  18. [Recent population trends in the Swiss Alps].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billet, J; Rougier, H

    1984-01-01

    Recent demographic trends in the Alpine areas of Switzerland are examined. Areas of population loss and gain are identified, and the importance of tourism for areas experiencing population growth is established. Efforts to support the demographic and economic viability of mountain areas are described.

  19. Ethical issues in using Twitter for population-level depression monitoring: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikal, Jude; Hurst, Samantha; Conway, Mike

    2016-04-14

    Recently, significant research effort has focused on using Twitter (and other social media) to investigate mental health at the population-level. While there has been influential work in developing ethical guidelines for Internet discussion forum-based research in public health, there is currently limited work focused on addressing ethical problems in Twitter-based public health research, and less still that considers these issues from users' own perspectives. In this work, we aim to investigate public attitudes towards utilizing public domain Twitter data for population-level mental health monitoring using a qualitative methodology. The study explores user perspectives in a series of five, 2-h focus group interviews. Following a semi-structured protocol, 26 Twitter users with and without a diagnosed history of depression discussed general Twitter use, along with privacy expectations, and ethical issues in using social media for health monitoring, with a particular focus on mental health monitoring. Transcripts were then transcribed, redacted, and coded using a constant comparative approach. While participants expressed a wide range of opinions, there was an overall trend towards a relatively positive view of using public domain Twitter data as a resource for population level mental health monitoring, provided that results are appropriately aggregated. Results are divided into five sections: (1) a profile of respondents' Twitter use patterns and use variability; (2) users' privacy expectations, including expectations regarding data reach and permanence; (3) attitudes towards social media based population-level health monitoring in general, and attitudes towards mental health monitoring in particular; (4) attitudes towards individual versus population-level health monitoring; and (5) users' own recommendations for the appropriate regulation of population-level mental health monitoring. Focus group data reveal a wide range of attitudes towards the use of public

  20. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  1. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  2. Trend Monitoring System (TMS) graphics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. S.

    1979-01-01

    A prototype bus communications systems, which is being used to support the Trend Monitoring System (TMS) and to evaluate the bus concept is considered. A set of FORTRAN-callable graphics subroutines for the host MODCOMP comuter, and an approach to splitting graphics work between the host and the system's intelligent graphics terminals are described. The graphics software in the MODCOMP and the operating software package written for the graphics terminals are included.

  3. A project for monitoring trends in burn severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Zhu, Zhu-Liang; Quayle, Brad; Howard, Stephen M.

    2007-01-01

    Jeff Eidenshink, Brian Schwind, Ken Brewer, Zhi-Liang Zhu, Brad Quayle, and Elected officials and leaders of environmental agencies need information about the effects of large wildfires in order to set policy and make management decisions. Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates the National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA). One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States. To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six-year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires. Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) and USDA-FS Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 202 ha (500ac) in the east, and 404 ha (1,000 ac) in the west. The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9,000. The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports, which will be available for use at local, state, and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions. Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire-affected landscapes over time. Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range

  4. Camera Traps on Wildlife Crossing Structures as a Tool in Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) Management - Five-Years Monitoring of Wolf Abundance Trends in Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šver, Lidija; Bielen, Ana; Križan, Josip; Gužvica, Goran

    2016-01-01

    The conservation of gray wolf (Canis lupus) and its coexistence with humans presents a challenge and requires continuous monitoring and management efforts. One of the non-invasive methods that produces high-quality wolf monitoring datasets is camera trapping. We present a novel monitoring approach where camera traps are positioned on wildlife crossing structures that channel the animals, thereby increasing trapping success and increasing the cost-efficiency of the method. In this way we have followed abundance trends of five wolf packs whose home ranges are intersected by a motorway which spans throughout the wolf distribution range in Croatia. During the five-year monitoring of six green bridges we have recorded 28 250 camera-events, 132 with wolves. Four viaducts were monitored for two years, recording 4914 camera-events, 185 with wolves. We have detected a negative abundance trend of the monitored Croatian wolf packs since 2011, especially severe in the northern part of the study area. Further, we have pinpointed the legal cull as probable major negative influence on the wolf pack abundance trends (linear regression, r2 > 0.75, P Croatia until there is more data proving population stability. In conclusion, quantitative methods, such as the one presented here, should be used as much as possible when assessing wolf abundance trends.

  5. Population trends of Rhinolophus affinis during the breeding and non-breeding season roosting at the Kota Gelanggi limestone complex, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sia, Ting Jin; Zubaid, Akbar; Foo, Ng Yong

    2015-09-01

    Monitoring population trends of bats in caves is difficult but is very important for their conservation. Their vulnerability to decline cannot be taken lightly and must be monitored for future management purposes especially in places open to the public. No studies have been done on bats roosting in caves at Kota Gelanggi and there are very few published studies of cave-dwelling bats in Malaysia. To fill this gap, a study on monitoring the population trends of Rhinolophus affinis was carried out in two caves namely, Gua Kepala Gajah and Gua Tongkat. This study was conducted from October 2013 until December 2014. The population size was estimated by direct visual counts and photographic methods during the day. The bats were caught by using mists net and harp traps. The reproductive condition of both female and male individuals was examined. The mean estimated population size for R. affinis in Gua Kepala Gajah was 221 individuals and 464 in Gua Tongkat. The population size of R. affinis showed an obvious decline during the breeding season and increased gradually after that for both caves. Pregnant R. affinis were found in April 2014 and lactating in June 2014 in both caves. It is important to know the breeding and non-breeding season of bats in both caves and their roosting behaviour in order to protect the bats from human disturbance as these caves are open to the public. The findings will enable the TEKAM management to come out with a proper conservation and management plan for protecting the bat fauna in these caves.

  6. Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mace, R.D.; Carney, D.W.; Chilton-Radandt, T.; Courville, S.A.; Haroldson, M.A.; Harris, R.B.; Jonkel, J.; McLellan, B.; Madel, M.; Manley, T.L.; Schwartz, C.C.; Servheen, C.; Stenhouse, G.; Waller, J.S.; Wenum, E.

    2012-01-01

    We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (mx) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

  7. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  9. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

  10. Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Paprocki

    Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

  11. Proceedings of the 2015 international summit on fibropapillomatosis: Global status, trends, and population impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargrove, Stacy A.; Work, Thierry M.; Brunson, Shandell; Foley, Allen M.; Balazs, George H.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 International Summit on Fibropapillomatosis (FP) was convened in Honolulu, Hawaii June 11-14, 2015. Scientists from around the world were invited to present results from sea turtle monitoring and research programs as they relate to the global status, trends, and population impacts of FP on green turtles. The participants engaged in discussions that resulted in the following conclusions: 1.Globally, FP has long been present in wild sea turtle populations the earliest mention was in the late 1800s in the Florida Keys. 2.FP primarily affects medium-sized immature turtles in coastal foraging pastures. 3.Expression of FP differs across ocean basins and to some degree within basins. Turtles in the Southeast US, Caribbean, Brazil, and Australia rarely have oral tumors (inside the mouth cavity), whereas they are common and often severe in Hawaii. Internal tumors (on vital organs) occur in the Atlantic and Hawaii, but only rarely in Australia. Liver tumors are common in Florida but not in Hawaii. 4.Recovery from FP through natural processes, when the affliction is not severe, has been documented in wild populations globally. 5.FP causes reduced survivorship, but documented mortality rates in Australia and Hawaii are low. The mortality impact of FP is not currently exceeding population growth rates in some intensively monitored populations (e.g., Florida, Hawaii) as evidenced by increasing nesting trends despite the incidence of FP in immature foraging populations. 6.Pathogens, hosts, and potential disease and environmental cofactors have the capacity to change; while we are having success now, there needs to be continued monitoring to detect changes in the distribution, occurrence, and severity of the disease. 7.While we do not have clear evidence to provide the direct link, globally, the preponderance of sites with a high frequency of FP tumors are areas with some degree of degradation resulting from altered watersheds. Watershed management and responsible coastal

  12. Breeding Status and Population Trends of Golden Eagles in Northeastern Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Morneau

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In North America, it is hypothesized that the Golden Eagle's (Aquila chrysaetos eastern population declined during the period 1946-1973 because of organochlorine pesticides and other anthropogenic causes of mortality. Since 1970, upward trends for the species have been observed at most eastern hawkwatches. To determine whether such positive trends can be observed on breeding grounds, Golden Eagle counts were performed to monitor nesting territory occupancy between 1994 and 2007 in the Moisie and Sainte-Marguerite River valleys, northeastern Québec. Aerial surveys were conducted during seven of the 14 years. During this period, the number of known nesting territories in the study area increased from 10 to 20, while the number of pairs rose from six to 14. The increase is attributed mostly to investigators' improved experience in finding nests and to their greater familiarity with the study area, and possibly to the growth of the regional population. Occupancy of nesting territories by pairs was very stable over the years. Annual mean % of laying pairs (or laying rate was 48.0 (SD = 19.9, and productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair was 0.49 (SD = 0.35.

  13. A Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bragazzi NL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Nicola Luigi Bragazzi DINOGMI, Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy Abstract: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI is an intentional, direct, and socially unacceptable behavior resulting in the destruction of one's own body tissues with no intention of dying or committing suicide, even though it is associated with a higher risk of attempted, planned, or just considered suicide. In this preliminary report, we introduce the concept of “NSSI 2.0”; that is to say, the study of the Internet usage by subjects with NSSI, and we introduce a Google Trends-based approach for monitoring NSSI, called NSSI infodemiology and infoveillance. Despite some limitations, Google Trends has already proven to be reliable for infectious diseases monitoring, and here we extend its application and potentiality in the field of suicidology. Ad hoc web portals and surveys could be designed in light of the reported results for helping people with NSSI. Keywords: infodemiology, infoveillance, Internet, non-suicidal self-injury

  14. Design to monitor trend in abundance and presence of American beaver (Castor canadensis) at the national forest scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Jeffrey L; Dauwalter, Daniel C; Gerow, Kenneth G; Hayward, Gregory D

    2010-05-01

    Wildlife conservationists design monitoring programs to assess population dynamics, project future population states, and evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations. Because agency mandates and conservation laws call for monitoring data to elicit management responses, it is imperative to design programs that match the administrative scale for which management decisions are made. We describe a program to monitor population trends in American beaver (Castor canadensis) on the US Department of Agriculture, Black Hills National Forest (BHNF) in southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming, USA. Beaver have been designated as a management indicator species on the BHNF because of their association with riparian and aquatic habitats and its status as a keystone species. We designed our program to monitor the density of beaver food caches (abundance) within sampling units with beaver and the proportion of sampling units with beavers present at the scale of a national forest. We designated watersheds as sampling units in a stratified random sampling design that we developed based on habitat modeling results. Habitat modeling indicated that the most suitable beaver habitat was near perennial water, near aspen (Populus tremuloides) and willow (Salix spp.), and in low gradient streams at lower elevations. Results from the initial monitoring period in October 2007 allowed us to assess costs and logistical considerations, validate our habitat model, and conduct power analyses to assess whether our sampling design could detect the level of declines in beaver stated in the monitoring objectives. Beaver food caches were located in 20 of 52 sampled watersheds. Monitoring 20 to 25 watersheds with beaver should provide sufficient power to detect 15-40% declines in the beaver food cache index as well as a twofold decline in the odds of beaver being present in watersheds. Indices of abundance, such as the beaver food cache index, provide a practical measure of

  15. Inferring population trends of Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Matrix population models may generate important information to prevent undesirable outcomes for endangered species. This is the case for Araucaria angustifolia, a Critically Endangered conifer, with little knowledge regarding its life history and trends in development over time. This study sought to investigate life-history ...

  16. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  17. Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan Teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: Pilot study results 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Laniawe, Leona

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimates of population size are often crucial to determining status and planning recovery of endangered species. The ability to detect trends in survival and population size over time enables conservation managers to make effective decisions for species and refuge management. During 2004–2007, the translocated population of endangered Laysan Teal (Anas laysanensis; also Laysan Duck) was fitted with radio transmitters providing known (―gold standard‖) measures of survival and reproduction. However, as the population grew, statistically rigorous monitoring protocols were needed that were less labor intensive than radio telemetry. A population die-off and alarmingly high number of carcasses (181) were recorded during a botulism epizootic in August–October 2008, which further reinforced the need for effective monitoring protocols since this endangered species is vulnerable to catastrophic population declines. In fall 2008, we initiated a pilot study using standardized surveys with uniquely marked birds to monitor abundance and estimate the population growth rate of the reintroduced Laysan Teal. Since few birds carried marks (leg bands) after the 2008 botulism die-off (only about 15% of the population), and standardized surveys were not yet implemented, the magnitude of the die-off on the population size was unknown.

  18. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  19. How much effort is enough? The power of citizen science to monitor trends in coastal cetacean species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.B. Embling

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citizen scientists provide a cost-effective means of carrying out broad scale, long-term monitoring of the environment while fostering earth stewardship. In this study we investigate how much effort is required by citizen scientists to detect trends in the occurrence of a protected population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus. We analyse the WDC citizen science shore-based data collected over nine years (2005–2013 between April to October from within and in the vicinity of a Special Area of Conservation (SAC for bottlenose dolphins in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Watches comprised a continuous 10 minute scan of the survey area in an hour. During peak season, around 5 watches per day were required to detect annual or between-site trends of 50% in dolphin occurrence in locations where dolphins were sighted reliably (0.1 sightings per hour. Less effort was required at higher sightings rates, and it was not possible to statistically detect trends of <30%. This study highlights the importance of power analysis in designing citizen science programmes and demonstrates their effectiveness in carrying out long term shore-based monitoring of coastal cetacean species, providing a cost-effective early warning system for changes in the marine environment.

  20. [Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

    2013-10-01

    To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

  1. River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel T Turvey

    Full Text Available Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

  2. Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area. Methods We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses. Results The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000. Conclusions We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area. PMID:23758972

  3. Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we

  4. An Integrated Architecture for On-Board Aircraft Engine Performance Trend Monitoring and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Aircraft engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostics are closely related technologies that assist operators in managing the health of their gas turbine engine assets. Trend monitoring is the process of monitoring the gradual performance change that an aircraft engine will naturally incur over time due to turbomachinery deterioration, while gas path diagnostics is the process of detecting and isolating the occurrence of any faults impacting engine flow-path performance. Today, performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic functions are performed by a combination of on-board and off-board strategies. On-board engine control computers contain logic that monitors for anomalous engine operation in real-time. Off-board ground stations are used to conduct fleet-wide engine trend monitoring and fault diagnostics based on data collected from each engine each flight. Continuing advances in avionics are enabling the migration of portions of the ground-based functionality on-board, giving rise to more sophisticated on-board engine health management capabilities. This paper reviews the conventional engine performance trend monitoring and gas path fault diagnostic architecture commonly applied today, and presents a proposed enhanced on-board architecture for future applications. The enhanced architecture gains real-time access to an expanded quantity of engine parameters, and provides advanced on-board model-based estimation capabilities. The benefits of the enhanced architecture include the real-time continuous monitoring of engine health, the early diagnosis of fault conditions, and the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters. A future vision to advance the enhanced architecture is also presented and discussed

  5. Population trends around nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenberg, M.; Krueckeberg, D.A.; Kaltman, M.

    1984-01-01

    Site selection criteria used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission emphasize the selection of low population areas in which little growth is anticipated. This research examines population growth after site selection for the period 1960 to 1980 for forty-three operating sites. Substantial increments of population increase were found, only partially explained by national, regional, and host county growth trends impacting local host areas. These local components of change became especially important in the decade of the 1970s, when most of the plants were in full operation. The decade of the 1970s also saw a marked shift from the geographic pattern of growth of the 60s, when few plants were in operation. These larger and different growth components of the 1970s, also unexplained by preliminary analysis of correlation with coastal locations and degree of urbanization, are classified into categories with high potential and interest for further research

  6. American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

    2014-01-01

    Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

  7. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2017-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introducesnew techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed...

  8. Monitoring the shorebirds of North America: Towards a unified approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, S.K.; Bart, J.; Andres, B.; Brown, S.; Donaldson, G.; Harrington, B.; Johnston, V.; Jones, S.L.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) has recently developed a single blueprint for monitoring shorebirds in Canada and the United States in response to needs identified by recent shorebird conservation plans. The goals of PRISM are to: (1) estimate the size of breeding populations of 74 shorebird taxa in North America; (2) describe the distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships for these taxa; (3) monitor trends in shorebird population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at stopover locations, and; (5) assist local managers in meeting their shorebird conservation goals. The initial focus has been on developing methods to estimate trends in population size. A three-part approach for estimating trends includes: (1) breeding surveys in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions, (2) migration surveys, and (3) wintering surveys.

  9. Forest Health Monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2015-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  10. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2015-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi-State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  11. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Quintero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats.Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions.Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  12. A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

    2014-01-01

    Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

  13. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  14. Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryant, Ellen S.

    Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

  15. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  16. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  18. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  19. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Hu Zhu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG, as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  20. FBG-Based Monitoring of Geohazards: Current Status and Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hong-Hu; Shi, Bin; Zhang, Cheng-Cheng

    2017-02-24

    In recent years, natural and anthropogenic geohazards have occured frequently all over the world, and field monitoring is becoming an increasingly important task to mitigate these risks. However, conventional geotechnical instrumentations for monitoring geohazards have a number of weaknesses, such as low accuracy, poor durability, and high sensitivity to environmental interferences. In this aspect, fiber Bragg grating (FBG), as a popular fiber optic sensing technology, has gained an explosive amount of attention. Based on this technology, quasi-distributed sensing systems have been established to perform real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides, debris flows, land subsidence, earth fissures and so on. In this paper, the recent research and development activities of applying FBG systems to monitor different types of geohazards, especially those triggered by human activities, are critically reviewed. The working principles of newly developed FBG sensors are briefly introduced, and their features are summarized. This is followed by a discussion of recent case studies and lessons learned, and some critical problems associated with field implementation of FBG-based monitoring systems. Finally the challenges and future trends in this research area are presented.

  1. Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

  2. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  3. Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

    2017-08-10

    Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial

  4. Population structure and genetic trends for indigenous African beef ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to investigate population structure and genetic trends based on pedigree and performance records of five indigenous African beef cattle breeds (Afrikaner, Boran, Drakensberger, Nguni and Tuli) in South Africa. Pedigree completeness over six generations was higher than 88.5% in the first ...

  5. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  6. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.

    2001-01-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  7. Monitoring and Modelling the Trends of Primary and Secondary Air Pollution Precursors: The Case of the State of Kuwait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Al-Salem

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, processes of different scales have contributed greatly to the pollution and waste load on the environment. More specifically, airborne pollutants associated with chemical processes have contributed greatly on the ecosystem and populations health. In this communication, we review recent activities and trends of primary and secondary air pollutants in the state of Kuwait, a country associated with petroleum, petrochemical, and other industrial pollution. Trends of pollutants and impact on human health have been studied and categorized based on recent literature. More attention was paid to areas known to researchers as either precursor sensitive (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOCs or adjacent to upstream- or downstream-related activities. Environmental monitoring and modelling techniques relevant to this study are also reviewed. Two case studies that link recent data with models associated with industrial sectors are also demonstrated, focusing mainly on chemical mass balance (CMB and Gaussian line source modelling. It is concluded that a number of the monitoring stations and regulations placed by the Kuwait Environment Public Authority (KUEPA need up-to-date revisions and better network placement, in agreement with previous findings.

  8. Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77

    OpenAIRE

    Strobino, Donna M.

    1982-01-01

    Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...

  9. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, W. G.; Jackman, R. E.; Hunt, T. L.; Driscoll, D. E.; Culp, L.

    1999-07-20

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial reoccupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of subadults as members of breeding pairs.

  10. A Population Study of Golden Eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area: Population Trend Analysis, 1994-1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Predatory Bird Research Group Long Marine Laboratory

    1999-01-01

    The wind industry has annually reported 28-43 turbine blade strike casualties of golden eagles in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, and many more carcasses have doubtless gone unnoticed. Because this species is especially sensitive to adult survival rate changes, we focused upon estimating the demographic trend of the population. In aerial surveys, we monitored survival within a sample of 179 radio-tagged eagles over a four-year period. We also obtained data on territory occupancy and reproduction of about 65 eagle pairs residing in the area. Of 61 recorded deaths of radio-tagged eagles during the four-year investigation, 23 (38%) were caused by wind turbine blade strikes. Additional fatalities were unrecorded because blade strikes sometimes destroy radio transmitters. Annual survival was estimated at 0.7867 (SE=0.0263) for non-territorial eagles and 0.8964 (SE=0.0371) for territorial ones. Annual reproduction was 0.64 (SE=0.08) young per territorial pair (0.25 per female). These parameters were used to estimate population growth rates under different modeling frameworks. At present, there are indications that a reserve of non-breeding adults still exists, i.e., there is an annual territorial re-occupancy rate of 100% and a low incidence (3%) of sub-adults as members of breeding pairs

  11. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  12. Forest health monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin M. Potter; Barbara L. Conkling

    2016-01-01

    The annual national report of the Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, presents forest health status and trends from a national or multi- State regional perspective using a variety of sources, introduces new techniques for analyzing forest health data, and summarizes results of recently completed Evaluation...

  13. Recent trends in the condition monitoring of transformers theory, implementation and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chakravorti, Sivaji; Chatterjee, Biswendu

    2013-01-01

    Recent Trends in the Condition Monitoring of Transformers reflects the current interest in replacing traditional techniques used in power transformer condition monitoring with non-invasive measures such as polarization/depolarization current measurement, recovery voltage measurement, frequency domain spectroscopy and frequency response analysis. The book stresses the importance of scrutinizing the condition of transformer insulation which may fail under present day conditions of intensive use with the resulting degradation of dielectric properties causing functional failure of the transformer.

  14. Citizen science based monitoring of Greylag goose (Anser anser in Bavaria (Germany: combining count data and bag data to estimate long-term trends between 1988/89 and 2010/11.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Grauer

    Full Text Available Numbers of large grazing bird (geese, swans, cranes have increased all over Europe, but monitoring these species, e.g. for management purposes, can be time consuming and costly. In Bavaria, sedentary Greylag geese (Anser anser are monitored during the winter by two different citizen-based monitoring schemes: the International Waterbird Census [IWC] and hunting bag statistics. We compared the results of both schemes for the seasons 1988/89 to 2010/11 by analysing annual indices calculated using the software TRends and Indices for Monitoring Data-TRIM.We identified similar, highly significant rates of increase in both data sets for the entire region of Bavaria (IWC 14% [13-15%], bag 13% [12-14%]. Furthermore, in all of the seven Bavarian regions, trends in annual indices of both data sets correlated significantly. The quality of both datasets as indicators of abundances in Greylag geese populations in Bavaria was not undermined by either weaknesses typically associated with citizen based monitoring or problems generally assumed for IWC and bag data. We also show that bag data are, under the German system of collecting bag statistics, a reliable indicator of species' distribution, especially for detecting newly colonized areas. Therefore, wildlife managers may want to consider bag data from citizen science led monitoring programmes as evidence supporting the decision making processes. We also discuss requirements for any bag monitoring schemes being established to monitor trends in species' distribution and abundance.

  15. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  16. Monitoring population status of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska: options and considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esslinger, George G.; Esler, Daniel N.; Howlin, S.; Starcevich, L.A.

    2015-06-25

    After many decades of absence from southeast Alaska, sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are recolonizing parts of their former range, including Glacier Bay, Alaska. Sea otters are well known for structuring nearshore ecosystems and causing community-level changes such as increases in kelp abundance and changes in the size and number of other consumers. Monitoring population status of sea otters in Glacier Bay will help park researchers and managers understand and interpret sea otter-induced ecosystem changes relative to other sources of variation, including potential human-induced impacts such as ocean acidification, vessel disturbance, and oil spills. This report was prepared for the National Park Service (NPS), Southeast Alaska Inventory and Monitoring Network following a request for evaluation of options for monitoring sea otter population status in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. To meet this request, we provide a detailed consideration of the primary method of assessment of abundance and distribution, aerial surveys, including analyses of power to detect interannual trends and designs to reduce variation around annual abundance estimates. We also describe two alternate techniques for evaluating sea otter population status—(1) quantifying sea otter diets and energy intake rates, and (2) detecting change in ages at death. In addition, we provide a brief section on directed research to identify studies that would further our understanding of sea otter population dynamics and effects on the Glacier Bay ecosystem, and provide context for interpreting results of monitoring activities.

  17. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...

  18. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  19. Results of the of wintering bird populations monitoring in the region of Nizhnee Prisurye

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina S. Preobrazhenskaya

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The monitoring of wintering bird populations in the region of Nizhnee Prisurie on the territory of Chuvash Republic was carried out in 1989–1990. From 2000 censuses were conducted on the territory of the nature reserve "Prisurskiy" and the National Park "Chavash Varmane". These regular censuses were called project "Parus" by the Menzbir Ornithological Society of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The last ten years they were also included in the overall-Russian campaign "Euro-Asian Christmas Bird Counts" project from the Russian Birds Conservation Union. During these 20 years there were 44 bird species registered in the studied area. Eleven of them are marked by single or rare. Four species - Regulus regulus, Aegithalos caudatus, Spinus spinus and Carduelis carduelis – increased their abundance from 1990 till the middle 2000-s and then – decreased. Dendrocopos minor showed the opposite trend. The abundance of 13 species in the 1990-s was higher, sometimes significantly, than in the 2000s and 2010s. The reason may be searched in the differences between the censuses areas in 1990s and 2000s. However, the decreasing of the population densities is typical for other forest species, not only in Nizhnee Prisurie, but also in other model territories. In general, during the last 25 years we can see negative trends in the population dynamics of wintering bird species within the East European plain.

  20. Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Amidon, Fred A.; Radley, Paul M.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Banko, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

  1. Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2012-12-01

    Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

  2. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among

  3. Can neonatal TSH screening reflect trends in population iodine intake?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Burns, Robert

    2008-08-01

    The distribution of neonatal blood thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations has been used as an index reflecting population dietary iodine intake, with higher concentrations being indicative of lower iodine intake. We examined this distribution in neonates born in Ireland, where the pregnant population has shown a recent decline in urinary iodine (UI) excretion. Our objectives were to determine if any alteration was observed in the percentage of values > 5.0 mIU\\/L and whether a trend in neonatal blood TSH was apparent.

  4. Long-term trends in airborne SO2 in an air quality monitoring station in Seoul, Korea, from 1987 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Azmatullah; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Szulejko, Jan E; Brown, Richard J C; Jeon, Eui-Chan; Oh, Jong-Min; Shin, Yong Soon; Adelodun, Adedeji A

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was intermittently measured at an air quality monitoring (AQM) station in the Yong-san district of Seoul, Korea, between 1987 and 2013. The SO 2 level was compared with other important pollutants concurrently measured, including methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 ). If split into three different periods (period 1, 1987-1988, period 2, 1999-2000, and period 3, 2004-2013), the respective mean [SO 2 ] values (6.57 ± 4.29, 6.30 ± 2.44, and 5.29 ± 0.63 ppb) showed a slight reduction across the entire study period. The concentrations of SO 2 are found to be strongly correlated with other pollutants such as CO (r = 0.614, p = 0.02), which tracked reductions in reported emissions due to tighter emissions standards enacted by the South Korean government. There was also a clear seasonal trend in the SO 2 level, especially in periods 2 and 3, reflecting the combined effects of domestic heating by coal briquettes and meteorological conditions. Although only a 16% concentration reduction was achieved during the 27-year study duration, this is significant if one considers rapid urbanization, an 83.2% increase in population, and rapid industrialization that took place during that period. Since 1970, a network of air quality monitoring (AQM) stations has been operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE) for routine nationwide monitoring of air pollutant concentrations in urban/suburban areas. To date, the information obtained from these stations has provided a platform for analyzing long-term trends of major pollutant species. In this study, we examined the long-term trends of SO 2 levels and relevant environmental parameters monitored continuously in the Yong-san district of Seoul between 1987 and 2013. The data were analyzed over various time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual intervals). The results obtained from

  5. The Recent Development of Croatia's Population – Regular and Irregular Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Lajić

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The recent development of Croatia’s population is burdened by many phenomena, due to which we can define it as irregular. Aggression against the newly-independent Croatian state, as well as the wars in its neighbourhood, brought about mechanical population movements that to a great degree enter into the category of forced migrations. The war death rate in the early 1990s and the strong refugee and expellee flows caused the strongest depopulation in recent times. Depopulation was present not only in war-effected areas – its further consequences were felt throughout Croatia. The mechanical, rather than the biological component determined this regressive development. The paper identifies the key modalities in migration flows in Croatia, which show that it is at the same time both an emigration and an immigration country. Wars in former Yugoslavia, which were to a high degree characterized by inter-ethnic conflicts, resulted in migration flows of people to their ethnic core areas. Thus, Croatia has received a strong immigration current made up of Croats from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, whereas emigration from Croatia to the latter countries mostly involved rural Serbs. Besides these migration trends, members of the ethnically Croatian (majority population and also other groups from Croatia, have migrated to Western Europe, which was a continuation of traditional migration trends. Among these migrants there is a large contingent which could be denoted as part of the “brain drain”. The census conducted in 2001 applied a different methodology than earlier censuses. The problem of different census methodologies is especially pertinent in a country which has a large number of refugees and economic migrants that cannot be classified into the category of emigrants. Thus the 2001 Census registered that Croatia has 4,437,460 inhabitants, or 7.25% less than in 1991.

  6. Population Parameters of Blainvilles and Cuviers Beaked Whales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    cetacean populations. Long-term monitoring of beaked whale populations in El Hierro , a nearly pristine habitat far from areas of sonar testing or...marine industry, enables valuable studies of demographic trends and life history dictated mainly by natural parameters. El Hierro is in process of...functioning (expected in 2018-2019), it is essential to continue monitoring the populations in El Hierro to obtain an uninterrupted long-term dataset of

  7. Sound solutions for habitat monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary M. Rowland; Lowell H. Suring; Christina D. Vojta

    2015-01-01

    For agencies and organizations to effectively manage wildlife, knowledge about the status and trend of wildlife habitat is critical. Traditional wildlife monitoring, however, has focused on populations rather than habitat, because ultimately population status drives long-term species viability. Still, habitat loss has contributed to the decline of nearly all at-risk...

  8. Towards a European Framework to Monitor Infectious Diseases among Migrant Populations: Design and Applicability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Riccardo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available There are limitations in our capacity to interpret point estimates and trends of infectious diseases occurring among diverse migrant populations living in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The aim of this study was to design a data collection framework that could capture information on factors associated with increased risk to infectious diseases in migrant populations in the EU/EEA. The authors defined factors associated with increased risk according to a multi-dimensional framework and performed a systematic literature review in order to identify whether those factors well reflected the reported risk factors for infectious disease in these populations. Following this, the feasibility of applying this framework to relevant available EU/EEA data sources was assessed. The proposed multidimensional framework is well suited to capture the complexity and concurrence of these risk factors and in principle applicable in the EU/EEA. The authors conclude that adopting a multi-dimensional framework to monitor infectious diseases could favor the disaggregated collection and analysis of migrant health data.

  9. Foreword: Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K.; Smith, Paul A.; Andres, Brad A.; Donaldson, Garry; Brown, Stephen; Bart, Jonathan R.; Johnston, Victoria H.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses of organisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, the congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for examples, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife Internationals and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis of proportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, of a species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent

  10. Trends in Snag Populations in Drought-Stressed Mixed-Conifer and Ponderosa Pine Forests (1997–2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph L. Ganey

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Snags provide important biological legacies, resources for numerous species of native wildlife, and contribute to decay dynamics and ecological processes in forested ecosystems. We monitored trends in snag populations from 1997 to 2007 in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws forests, northern Arizona. Median snag density increased by 75 and 90% in mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, respectively, over this time period. Increased snag density was driven primarily by a large pulse in drought-mediated tree mortality from 2002 to 2007, following a smaller pulse from 1997 to 2002. Decay-class composition and size-class composition of snag populations changed in both forest types, and species composition changed in mixed-conifer forest. Increases in snag abundance may benefit some species of native wildlife in the short-term by providing increased foraging and nesting resources, but these increases may be unsustainable in the long term. Observed changes in snag recruitment and fall rates during the study illustrate the difficulty involved in modeling dynamics of those populations in an era of climate change and changing land management practices.

  11. A wireless sensor network for urban traffic characterization and trend monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Lozano, J J; Martín-Guzmán, Miguel; Martín-Ávila, Juan; García-Cerezo, A

    2015-10-15

    Sustainable mobility requires a better management of the available infrastructure resources. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to obtain accurate data about road usage, in particular in urban areas. Although a variety of sensor alternates for urban traffic exist, they usually require extensive investments in the form of construction works for installation, processing means, etc. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are an alternative to acquire urban traffic data, allowing for flexible, easy deployment. Together with the use of the appropriate sensors, like Bluetooth identification, and associate processing, WSN can provide the means to obtain in real time data like the origin-destination matrix, a key tool for trend monitoring which previously required weeks or months to be completed. This paper presents a system based on WSN designed to characterize urban traffic, particularly traffic trend monitoring through the calculation of the origin-destination matrix in real time by using Bluetooth identification. Additional sensors are also available integrated in different types of nodes. Experiments in real conditions have been performed, both for separate sensors (Bluetooth, ultrasound and laser), and for the whole system, showing the feasibility of this approach.

  12. Idaho Habitat/Natural Production Monitoring Part I, 1995 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall-Griswold, J.A.; Petrosky, C.E. (Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Boise, ID)

    1996-12-01

    The Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) has been monitoring trends in juvenile spring and summer chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and steelhead trout, O. mykiss, populations in the Salmon, Clearwater, and lower Snake River drainages for the past 12 years. This work is the result of a program to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife affected by the development and operation of hydroelectric power plants on the Columbia River. Project 91-73, Idaho Natural Production Monitoring, consists of two subprojects: General Monitoring and Intensive Monitoring. This report updates and summarizes data through 1995 for the General Parr Monitoring (GPM) database to document status and trends of classes of wild and natural chinook salmon and steelhead trout populations. A total of 281 stream sections were sampled in 1995 to monitor trends in spring and summer chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead trout O. mykiss parr populations in Idaho. Percent carrying capacity and density estimates were summarized for 1985--1995 by different classes of fish: wild A-run steelhead trout, wild B-run steelhead trout, natural A-run steelhead trout, natural B-run steelhead trout, wild spring and summer chinook salmon, and natural spring and summer chinook salmon. The 1995 data were also summarized by subbasins as defined in Idaho Department of Fish and Game`s 1992--1996 Anadromous Fish Management Plan.

  13. Idaho habitat/natural production monitoring: Part 1. Annual report 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall-Griswold, J.A.; Petrosky, C.E.

    1996-11-01

    The Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG) has been monitoring trends in juvenile spring and summer chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and steelhead trout, O. mykiss, populations in the Salmon, Clearwater, and lower Snake River drainages for the past 12 years. This work is the result of a program to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife affected by the development and operation of hydroelectric power plants on the Columbia River. Project 91-73, Idaho Natural Production Monitoring, consists of two subprojects: General Monitoring and Intensive Monitoring. This report updates and summarizes data through 1995 for the General Parr Monitoring (GPM) database to document status and trends of classes of wild and natural chinook salmon and steelhead trout populations. A total of 281 stream sections were sampled in 1995 to monitor trends in spring and summer chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead trout O. mykiss parr populations in Idaho. Percent carrying capacity and density estimates were summarized for 1985--1995 by different classes of fish: wild A-run steelhead trout, wild B-run steelhead trout, natural A-run steelhead trout, natural B-run steelhead trout, wild spring and summer chinook salmon, and natural spring and summer chinook salmon. The 1995 data were also summarized by subbasins as defined in Idaho Department of Fish and Game's 1992--1996 Anadromous Fish Management Plan

  14. Population pressure on coral atolls: trends and approaching limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapaport, M

    1990-09-01

    Trends and approaching limits of population pressure on coral atolls is discussed by examining the atoll environment in terms of the physical geography, the production systems, and resource distribution. Atoll populations are grouped as dependent and independent, and demographic trends in population growth, migraiton, urbanization, and political dependency are reviewed. Examination of the carrying capacity includes a dynamic model, the influences of the West, and philopsophical considerations. The carrying capacity is the "maximal population supportable in a given area". Traditional models are criticized because of a lack in accounting for external linkages. The proposed model is dynamic and considers perceived needs and overseas linkages. It also explains regional disparities in population distribution, and provides a continuing model for population movement from outer islands to district centers and mainland areas. Because of increased expectations and perceived needs, there is a lower carrying capacity for outlying areas, and expanded capacity in district centers. This leads to urbanization, emigration, and carrying capacity overshot in regional and mainland areas. Policy intervention is necessary at the regional and island community level. Atolls, which are islands surrounding deep lagoons, exist in archipelagoes across the oceans, and are rich in aquatic life. The balance in this small land area with a vulnerable ecosystem may be easily disturbed by scarce water supplies, barren soils, rising sea levels in the future, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Traditionally, fisheries and horticulture (pit-taro, coconuts, and breadfruit) have sustained populations, but modern influences such as blasting, reef mining, new industrial technologies, population pressure, and urbanization threaten the balance. Population pressure, which has lead to pollution, epidemics, malnutrition, crime, social disintegration, and foreign dependence, is evidenced in the areas of Tuvalu, Kiribati

  15. Trends in cannabis use disorders among racial/ethnic population groups in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Li-Tzy; Zhu, He; Swartz, Marvin S

    2016-08-01

    Minority groups generally experience more disparities than whites in behavioral healthcare use. The population of racial/ethnic groups is growing faster than whites. Given increased concerns of cannabis use (CU) and its associations with health conditions, we examined national trends in cannabis use disorder (CUD) among adults aged ≥18 by race/ethnicity. Data were from the 2005-2013 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N=340,456). We compared CU patterns and the conditional prevalence of CUD among cannabis users by race/ethnicity to understand racial/ethnic variations in CUD. Approximately 1.5% of adults met criteria for a CUD in the past year. Regardless of survey year, cannabis dependence was more common than cannabis abuse, representing 66% of adults with a CUD. Across racial/ethnic groups, the prevalence of cannabis abuse and dependence remained stable during 2005-2013. In the total adult sample, the odds of weekly CU, monthly CU, and cannabis dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and mixed-race adults than whites. Among cannabis users, the odds of cannabis abuse and dependence were greater among blacks, native-Americans, and Hispanics than whites. Logistic regression controlling for age, sex, education, and survey year indicated an increased trend in monthly CU and weekly CU in the total sample and among past-year cannabis users. Younger age, male sex, and low education were associated with increased odds of cannabis dependence. The large sample provides robust information that indicates a need for research to monitor CUD and identify culturally appropriate interventions especially for targeting minority populations. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Mobile Air Monitoring Data Processing Strategies and Effects on Spatial Air Pollution Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    The collection of real-time air quality measurements while in motion (i.e., mobile monitoring) is currently conducted worldwide to evaluate in situ emissions, local air quality trends, and air pollutant exposure. This measurement strategy pushes the limits of traditional data an...

  17. On the system of monitoring ambient air quality in relation to the health of the population of the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmarova, H. [National Inst. of Public Health, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1995-12-31

    In 1991 the Government of the Czech republic in Ruling No 369 approved a draft of a system for monitoring the health of the population in relation to the environment on the basis of a need to obtain purposefully targeted information for an appropriate policy for the protection of health and the environment. The aim of monitoring does not and cannot consist of determining the cause and effect relationship between the health status and pollutants. The system of monitoring is an open and comprehensive system of the continual collection, processing and evaluation of data concerned with the load on the organism and damage to human health in relation to environmental pollution. Air pollution and health are one of the six subsystems realised in the whole system (beside drinking water, noise, food, biomarkers, and demographic and health statistics). The aim of the monitoring is to obtain a data base that shall serve three main purposes: (1) Description of the status of health of the population and characteristics of the ambient air, (2) Evaluation of the trend of each index, (3) Assessment and evaluation of the risk to health of the parameters under study. Thirty cities and towns were selected in the Czech Republic for the realisation of the monitoring system. (author)

  18. On the system of monitoring ambient air quality in relation to the health of the population of the Czech Republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmarova, H [National Inst. of Public Health, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1996-12-31

    In 1991 the Government of the Czech republic in Ruling No 369 approved a draft of a system for monitoring the health of the population in relation to the environment on the basis of a need to obtain purposefully targeted information for an appropriate policy for the protection of health and the environment. The aim of monitoring does not and cannot consist of determining the cause and effect relationship between the health status and pollutants. The system of monitoring is an open and comprehensive system of the continual collection, processing and evaluation of data concerned with the load on the organism and damage to human health in relation to environmental pollution. Air pollution and health are one of the six subsystems realised in the whole system (beside drinking water, noise, food, biomarkers, and demographic and health statistics). The aim of the monitoring is to obtain a data base that shall serve three main purposes: (1) Description of the status of health of the population and characteristics of the ambient air, (2) Evaluation of the trend of each index, (3) Assessment and evaluation of the risk to health of the parameters under study. Thirty cities and towns were selected in the Czech Republic for the realisation of the monitoring system. (author)

  19. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  20. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  1. THE MAIN TRENDS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION OF ROSPOTREBNADZOR IN THE LENINGRAD REGION AND THE GOVERNMENT OF LENINGRAD REGION IN THE FIELD OF POPULATION RADIATION PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Gorbanev

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the main interaction trends of the Administration of Rospotrebnadzor in the Leningrad Region and the Government of Leningrad Region regarding issues of regional radiation protection. It reports on comprehensive measures devoted to the limitation of the population exposure from natural irradiation sources, monitoring of territories which suffered from Chernobyl NPP accident and monitoring of the environmental impact of unauthorized dumps and solid municipal waste sites in the Leningrad Region. It presents the basic issues of medical exposure limitation in the Leningrad Region and measures for their solving.

  2. Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K.; Smith, Paul A.; Andres, Brad A.; Donaldson, Garry; Brown, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses oforganisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly migratory nature and ranges that extend into highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, they congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for example, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife International and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis ofproportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, ofa species' population are considered key information

  3. Wireless-accessible sensor populations for monitoring biological variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazzu, Marco; Scalvini, Simonetta; Giordano, A.; Frumento, E.; Wells, Hannah; Lokhorst, C.; Glisenti, Fulvio

    2008-01-01

    The current health-care infrastructure is generally considered to be inadequate to meet the needs of an increasingly older population. We have investigated the feasibility of a passive in-home monitoring system based on wireless accessible sensor populations (WASP). In an EU-funded project we have

  4. Efficient species-level monitoring at the landscape scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry R. Noon; Larissa L. Bailey; Thomas D. Sisk; Kevin S. McKelvey

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring the population trends of multiple animal species at a landscape scale is prohibitively expensive. However, advances in survey design, statistical methods, and the ability to estimate species presence on the basis of detection­nondetection data have greatly increased the feasibility of species-level monitoring. For example, recent advances in monitoring make...

  5. World population trends in 1960-70.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L; Kono, S

    1974-01-01

    burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.

  6. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

    2015-12-01

    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  8. Indicator Species Population Monitoring in Antarctica with Uav

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmarz, A.; Korczak-Abshire, M.; Storvold, R.; Rodzewicz, M.; Kędzierska, I.

    2015-08-01

    A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km) were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 - 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance) less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  9. INDICATOR SPECIES POPULATION MONITORING IN ANTARCTICA WITH UAV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zmarz

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A program to monitor bird and pinniped species in the vicinity of Arctowski Station, King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica, has been conducted over the past 38 years. Annual monitoring of these indicator species includes estimations of breeding population sizes of three Pygoscelis penguin species: Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap. Six penguin colonies situated on the western shores of two bays: Admiralty and King George are investigated. To study changes in penguin populations Unmanned Aerial Vehicles were used for the first time in the 2014/15 austral summer season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of eight penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained high resolution images were used for estimation of breeding population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground. During this Antarctic expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 – 400 AGL, allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance less than 5 cm. The Image J software analysis method was tested to provide automatic population estimates from obtained images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

  10. [Trends in smoking in an urban population over recent decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalbí, Joan R; Bartoll, Xavier; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Borrell, Carme

    2016-05-06

    The objective of this study is to describe the distribution of smoking in the population and to assess changes and trends over recent decades. Cross sectional study in a sample of the non-institutionalized resident population (n=3,509) in Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) using data from persons over 14 years of age from the health survey of 2011, and assessing trends for 1983-2011 using previous surveys. Dependent variables are having ever been a smoker, having quit, being a current smoker, and smoking daily. Independent variables include sex, age, and time. Prevalence and proportions are estimated, stratifying or adjusting for age. The prevalence of daily smokers is 18.8% in 2011: 22.2% for men and 15.9% for women. The age groups with higher smoking prevalence are 25-34 years for men and 15-24 for women. From 1983 to 2011 the reduction among men has been intense, and for women the prevalence has been decreasing since the survey of 2000. Among smokers, the proportion of both genders who do not smoke daily has increased. The smoking epidemic over the last years shows promising trends. The data do not lend support to the hardening hypothesis for current smokers. Smokers are a shrinking minority, although to improve public health it would be desirable to speed the process of change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Is it appropriate to composite fish samples for mercury trend monitoring and consumption advisories?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Nilima; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Gewurtz, Sarah B; Drouillard, Ken G; Arhonditsis, George B; Petro, Steve

    2016-03-01

    Monitoring mercury levels in fish can be costly because variation by space, time, and fish type/size needs to be captured. Here, we explored if compositing fish samples to decrease analytical costs would reduce the effectiveness of the monitoring objectives. Six compositing methods were evaluated by applying them to an existing extensive dataset, and examining their performance in reproducing the fish consumption advisories and temporal trends. The methods resulted in varying amount (average 34-72%) of reductions in samples, but all (except one) reproduced advisories very well (96-97% of the advisories did not change or were one category more restrictive compared to analysis of individual samples). Similarly, the methods performed reasonably well in recreating temporal trends, especially when longer-term and frequent measurements were considered. The results indicate that compositing samples within 5cm fish size bins or retaining the largest/smallest individuals and compositing in-between samples in batches of 5 with decreasing fish size would be the best approaches. Based on the literature, the findings from this study are applicable to fillet, muscle plug and whole fish mercury monitoring studies. The compositing methods may also be suitable for monitoring Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in fish. Overall, compositing fish samples for mercury monitoring could result in a substantial savings (approximately 60% of the analytical cost) and should be considered in fish mercury monitoring, especially in long-term programs or when study cost is a concern. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

  13. Monitoring of raptors and their contamination levels in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjershaug, Jan Ove; Kålås, John Atle; Nygård, Torgeir; Herzke, Dorte; Folkestad, Alv Ottar

    2008-09-01

    This article summarizes results from raptor monitoring and contamination studies in Norway of the golden eagle, gyrfalcon, white-tailed sea eagle, osprey, peregrine, and merlin. Golden eagle and gyrfalcon populations have been monitored since 1990 as part of the "Monitoring Programme for Terrestrial Ecosystems" (TOV). No long-term trend in the population size or productivity of golden eagle has been shown in any of the 5 study areas. The reproductive output of gyrfalcon is monitored in 3 areas. It is positively correlated with the populations of its main prey species, the rock ptarmigan and the willow ptarmigan. The white-tailed sea eagle population has been monitored since 1974 by the Norwegian Ornithological Society, and the population is increasing. The levels of pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls are low in the eggs of both the golden eagle and the gyrfalcon, but elevated levels and effects on reproduction have been indicated for a coastal subpopulation of golden eagle. The pollutant levels in white-tailed sea eagle are lower than in the Baltic population of sea eagles, and shell thinning was never severe overall, but individual eggs have contained pollutant concentrations above critical levels. The levels of pollutants in the bird-eating falcons, peregrine, and merlin were higher than in other species. New emerging pollutants, like brominated diphenylethers and perfluorinated organic compounds, could be detected in all species. By incorporating available published and unpublished data, we were able to produce time trends for pollutants and shell thickness over 4 decades.

  14. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Jennifer R

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. Methods We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Results Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000 in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000 in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000 to 1,465 (15.8/1000 neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000 compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000. The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. Conclusions The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  15. Trends in use of neonatal CPAP: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Badgery-Parker, Tim; Algert, Charles S; Bowen, Jennifer R; Nassar, Natasha

    2011-10-17

    Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is used widely to provide respiratory support for neonates, and is often the first treatment choice in tertiary centres. Recent trials have demonstrated that CPAP reduces need for intubation and ventilation for infants born at 25-28 weeks gestation, and at > 32 weeks, in non-tertiary hospitals, CPAP reduces need for transfer to NICU. The aim of this study was to examine recent population trends in the use of neonatal continuous positive airway pressure. We undertook a population-based cohort study of all 696,816 liveborn neonates ≥24 weeks gestation in New South Wales (NSW) Australia, 2001-2008. Data were obtained from linked birth and hospitalizations records, including neonatal transfers. The primary outcome was CPAP without mechanical ventilation (via endotracheal intubation) between birth and discharge from the hospital system. Analyses were stratified by age ≤32 and > 32 weeks gestation. Neonates receiving any ventilatory support increased from 1,480 (17.9/1000) in 2001 to 2,486 (26.9/1000) in 2008, including 461 (5.6/1000) to 1,465 (15.8/1000) neonates who received CPAP alone. There was a concurrent decrease in mechanical ventilation use from 12.3 to 11.0/1000. The increase in CPAP use was greater among neonates > 32 weeks (from 3.2 to 11.8/1000) compared with neonates ≤32 weeks (from 18.1 to 32.7/1000). The proportion of CPAP > 32 weeks initiated in non-tertiary hospitals increased from 6% to 30%. The use of neonatal CPAP is increasing, especially > 32 weeks gestation and among non-tertiary hospitals. Recommendations are required regarding which infants should be considered for CPAP, resources necessary for a unit to offer CPAP and monitoring of longer term outcomes.

  16. Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Fnais

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

  17. Water use benefit index as a tool for community-based monitoring of water related trends in the Great Barrier Reef region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smajgl, A.; Larson, S.; Hug, B.; De Freitas, D. M.

    2010-12-01

    SummaryThis paper presents a tool for documenting and monitoring water use benefits in the Great Barrier Reef catchments that allows temporal and spatial comparison along the region. Water, water use benefits and water allocations are currently receiving much attention from Australian policy makers and conservation practitioners. Because of the inherent complexity and variability in water quality, it is essential that scientific information is presented in a meaningful way to policy makers, managers and ultimately, to the general public who have to live with the consequences of the decisions. We developed an inexpensively populated and easily understandable water use benefit index as a tool for community-based monitoring of water related trends in the Great Barrier Reef region. The index is developed based on a comparative list of selected water-related indices integrating attributes across physico-chemical, economic, social, and ecological domains currently used in the assessment of water quality, water quantity and water use benefits in Australia. Our findings indicate that the proposed index allows the identification of water performance indicators by temporal and spatial comparisons. Benefits for decision makers and conservation practitioners include a flexible way of prioritization towards the domain with highest concern. The broader community benefits from a comprehensive and user-friendly tool, communicating changes in water quality trends more effectively.

  18. Combining Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge: Monitoring Populations for Co-Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Moller

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a combination of traditional ecological knowledge and science to monitor populations can greatly assist co-management for sustainable customary wildlife harvests by indigenous peoples. Case studies from Canada and New Zealand emphasize that, although traditional monitoring methods may often be imprecise and qualitative, they are nevertheless valuable because they are based on observations over long time periods, incorporate large sample sizes, are inexpensive, invite the participation of harvesters as researchers, and sometimes incorporate subtle multivariate cross checks for environmental change. A few simple rules suggested by traditional knowledge may produce good management outcomes consistent with fuzzy logic thinking. Science can sometimes offer better tests of potential causes of population change by research on larger spatial scales, precise quantification, and evaluation of population change where no harvest occurs. However, science is expensive and may not always be trusted or welcomed by customary users of wildlife. Short scientific studies in which traditional monitoring methods are calibrated against population abundance could make it possible to mesh traditional ecological knowledge with scientific inferences of prey population dynamics. This paper analyzes the traditional monitoring techniques of catch per unit effort and body condition. Combining scientific and traditional monitoring methods can not only build partnership and community consensus, but also, and more importantly, allow indigenous wildlife users to critically evaluate scientific predictions on their own terms and test sustainability using their own forms of adaptive management.

  19. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  20. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  1. Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring: State-of-the-Art Review, New Trends, and Future Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As the demand for wind energy continues to grow at exponential rates, reducing operation and maintenance (OM costs and improving reliability have become top priorities in wind turbine (WT maintenance strategies. In addition to the development of more highly evolved WT designs intended to improve availability, the application of reliable and cost-effective condition-monitoring (CM techniques offers an efficient approach to achieve this goal. This paper provides a general review and classification of wind turbine condition monitoring (WTCM methods and techniques with a focus on trends and future challenges. After highlighting the relevant CM, diagnosis, and maintenance analysis, this work outlines the relationship between these concepts and related theories, and examines new trends and future challenges in the WTCM industry. Interesting insights from this research are used to point out strengths and weaknesses in today’s WTCM industry and define research priorities needed for the industry to meet the challenges in wind industry technological evolution and market growth.

  2. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  3. Trends in Health Information-Seeking Behaviour in the U.S. Foreign-Born Population Based on the Health Information National Trends Survey, 2005-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, JungWon; Huang, Hong; Soojung Kim

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: This study investigated trends in the health information-seeking behaviour of the U.S. foreign-born population over a ten-year period and examined whether health information disparities between this population and native-born citizens have decreased. Method: Data were collected from six iterations of the Health Information National…

  4. Counting migrants to monitor bird populations: state of the art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erica H. Dunn

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to summarize background information on what migration monitoring is, what biases are present and how they can be addressed, evidence that resulting trends are biologically meaningful, and what the benefits and limitations of the method are. Some topics have been covered elsewhere in greater detail (Dunn and Hussell 1995, Dunn et al. 1997,...

  5. Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah M Eglington

    Full Text Available Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.

  6. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  7. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  8. Principles of monitoring for the radiation protection of the population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sowby, F.D.

    1984-01-01

    In this report all exposures are considered except occupational exposure and exposure to patients from medical uses of radiation. The subject is dealt with under the following headings: explanation of terms and relevant recommendations of the I.C.R.P., interaction between modelling and monitoring, general objectives and requirements of monitoring programmes, monitoring of source, environment and individuals within the population, quality assurance. (U.K.)

  9. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Beaudrot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes

  10. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, Jorge A; O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R; Willig, Michael R; Winarni, Nurul L; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  11. Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A.; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H.; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R.; Willig, Michael R.; Winarni, Nurul L.; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify

  12. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  13. Genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mäki, K.; Groen, A.F.; Liinamo, A.E.; Ojala, M.

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess genetic variances, trends and mode of inheritance for hip and elbow dysplasia in Finnish dog populations. The influence of time-dependent fixed effects in the model when estimating the genetic trends was also studied. Official hip and elbow dysplasia screening

  14. Rapid assessment of populations trends of invasive species: Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANA, ED

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is a powerful analytical approach for biodi-versity management. Its main advan-tages are due to its intuitive processing and visualization, since mathematical workflow is conceptually similar to the widely accepted Principal Components Analysis. Detailed analyses of popula-tion trends with mathematical tools are often difficult to achieve for managers by a number of reasons (large numbers or areas monitored, large number of species, insufficient statistics skills, strong knowledge level in demographic analyses, etc.. SSA has been used since the 1970’s in signal processing to clarify signal vs. noisy information, but it has also been used in climate change analy-sis and other developmental areas. Be-sides, SSA is a rapid-learning method for technicians and managers with medium level of mathematical knowledge. Free software in Unix environment is avail-able. Unfortunately, no free and friendly software is available for Win-dows SO. Although R package may offer solutions for really advanced users, it does not fit real work situations for managers of biological invasions. Cater-pillar (Gistat Group, Ltd is by now, the best option found by the author in terms of price, facility for results inter-pretation and time consumed in learn-ing. The main disadvantage is the poor content of tutorial files

  15. Use Of Biodegradation Ratios In Monitoring Trend Of Biostimulated Biodegradation In Crude Oil Polluted Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okorondu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study deals with biodegradation experiment on soil contaminated with crude oil. The soil sample sets A BC D E F G were amended with inorganic fertilizer to enhance microbial growth and hydrocarbon degradation moisture content of some of the sets were as well varied. Biodegradation ratios nC17Pr nC18Ph and nC17nC18PrPh were used to monitor biodegradation of soil sets A BC D E F G for a period of 180. The soil samples were each contaminated with the same amount of crude oil and exposed to specific substrate treatment regarding the amount of nutrients and water content over the same period of time. The trend in biodegradation of the different soil sample sets shows that biodegradation ratio nC17nC18PrPh was more reflective of and explains the biodegradation trend in all the sample sets throughout the period of the experiment hence a better parameter ratio for monitoring trend of biostimulated biodegradation. The order of preference of the biodegradation ratios is expressed as nC18Ph nC17Pr nC17nC18 PrPh. This can be a relevant support tool when designing bioremediation plan on field.

  16. Agricultural Set-aside Programs and Grassland Birds: Insights from Broad-scale Population Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Riffell

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP is a voluntary set-aside program in the United States designed to amelioratesoil erosion, control crop overproduction, enhance water quality, and provide wildlife habitat by replacing crops with other forms of land cover. Because CRP includes primarily grass habitats, it has great potential to benefitdeclining North American grassland bird populations. We looked at the change in national and state population trends of grassland birds and related changes to cover-specific CRP variables (previous research grouped all CRP practices. Changes in national trends after the initiation of the CRP were inconclusive, but we observed signficant bird-CRP relations at the state level. Most bird-CRP relations were positive, except for some species associated with habitats that CRP replaced. Practice- and configuration-specific CRP variables were related to grassland bird trends, rather than a generic measure of all CRP types combined. Considering all CRP land as a single, distinct habitat type may obscure actual relations between birds and set-aside characteristics. Understanding and predictingthe effects of set-aside programs (like CRP or agri-environment schemes on grassland birds is complex and difficult. Because available broad-scale datasets are less than adequate, studies should be conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

  17. Status and trends of solid state track detector use in radiation protection monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerschel, B.

    1980-01-01

    The characteristic properties of solid state track detectors allow them to be used for determining the radiation fields of charged and uncharged particles and, consequently, for solving some problems involved in radiation protection monitoring. Aptitude of various detector materials is investigated on the basis of the track formation mechanism taking into account the properties of the particles to be detected. Use of these detectors in radiation protection monitoring presumes appropriate methods of intensifying the latent tracks, which are discussed as a function of various physical parameters. Readout methods of solid state track detectors are based on variations in detector properties determined by number and size of particle tracks in the detector. The choice of a special readout method, among other things, depends on the purpose, detector material, and pretreatment of the detectors. The most prospective methods are described and investigated with respect to their possible use in various fields of radiation protection monitoring. The trends of development of the application of solid state track detectors in radiation protection monitoring are discussed, using some typical applications as examples. (author)

  18. Science deficiency in conservation practice: the monitoring of tiger populations in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Seidensticker, J.; Dinerstein, Eric; Smith, J.L.D.; McDougal, C.; Johnsingh, A.J.T.; Chundawat, Raghunandan S.; Thapar, V.

    2003-01-01

    Conservation practices are supposed to get refined by advancing scientific knowledge. We study this phenomenon in the context of monitoring tiger populations in India, by evaluating the 'pugmark census method' employed by wildlife managers for three decades. We use an analytical framework of modem animal population sampling to test the efficacy of the pugmark censuses using scientific data on tigers and our field observations. We identify three critical goals for monitoring tiger populations, in order of increasing sophistication: (1) distribution mapping, (2) tracking relative abundance, (3) estimation of absolute abundance. We demonstrate that the present census-based paradigm does not work because it ignores the first two simpler goals, and targets, but fails to achieve, the most difficult third goal. We point out the utility and ready availability of alternative monitoring paradigms that deal with the central problems of spatial sampling and observability. We propose an alternative sampling-based approach that can be tailored to meet practical needs of tiger monitoring at different levels of refinement.

  19. Monitoring, imperfect detection, and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rout, Tracy M; Baker, Christopher M; Huxtable, Stewart; Wintle, Brendan A

    2018-04-01

    Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease-free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD-affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch-effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease-free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May-June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost-effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease-free. © 2017 Society for

  20. Monitoring population density and fluctuations of Anisandrus dispar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bark and ambrosia beetles consist of two main ecological groups; bark beetles settle in the phloem, whereas ambrosia beetles bore in the xylem (sapwood). The latter are very detrimental ... in Samsun province. Key words: Hazelnut, population monitoring, Anisandrus dispar, Xyleborinus saxesenii, red winged sticky traps.

  1. Monitoring cryptic amphibians and reptiles in a Florida state park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeman, Richard M; Meshaka, Walter E; Severson, Robert; Severson, Mary Ann; Kaufman, Greg; Groninger, N Paige; Smith, Henry T

    2016-04-01

    We monitored cryptic herpetofauna at Savannas Preserve State Park, Florida, by combining artificial cover counts with a quantitative paradigm for constructing and calculating population indices. Weekly indices were calculated from two consecutive days of data collection each week for 7 months from mid-winter to mid-summer in three habitats. Seventeen species were observed at least once, and time trends using index values were followed for six species. Among these, abundance and seasonal pattern information were obtained for an exotic species (greenhouse frog) and a species identified by the Florida Committee on Rare and Endangered Plants and Animals as threatened (Florida scrub lizard). We identified winter as the optimal time in this area to monitor populations for conducting annual assessments. This combined observation and indexing approach could provide managers or researchers with an economical means to quantitatively index population trends for multiple cryptic herpetofauna species simultaneously. Using artificial cover to sample within a population indexing design can be generalized beyond monitoring herpetofauna. Other forms of artificial cover that can be used as observation stations include aquatic artificial substrates, artificial tree cavities, artificial reefs, and other artificial aquatic structures and artificial sea grass units, among many others, and a wide range of taxa are suitable for population monitoring using artificial cover as observation stations in the approach we present, including insects, soil invertebrates, micro and macro aquatic invertebrates, fish, crustaceans, and small mammals.

  2. Trends in Special Education Eligibility Among Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder, 2002-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, Eric; Daniels, Julie; Schieve, Laura A; Christensen, Deborah L; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Rice, Catherine E; Bakian, Amanda V; Durkin, Maureen S; Rosenberg, Steven A; Kirby, Russell S; Lee, Li-Ching

    Although data on publicly available special education are informative and offer a glimpse of trends in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and use of educational services, using these data for population-based public health monitoring has drawbacks. Our objective was to evaluate trends in special education eligibility among 8-year-old children with ASD identified in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. We used data from 5 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network sites (Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, and North Carolina) during 4 surveillance years (2002, 2006, 2008, and 2010) and compared trends in 12 categories of special education eligibility by sex and race/ethnicity. We used multivariable linear risk regressions to evaluate how the proportion of children with a given eligibility changed over time. Of 6010 children with ASD, more than 36% did not receive an autism eligibility in special education in each surveillance year. From surveillance year 2002 to surveillance year 2010, autism eligibility increased by 3.6 percentage points ( P = .09), and intellectual disability eligibility decreased by 4.6 percentage points ( P special education services under other categories, and racial/ethnic disparities persisted. To monitor trends in ASD prevalence, public health officials need access to comprehensive data collected systematically, not just special education eligibility.

  3. Eight years of the Great Influenza Survey to monitor influenza-like illness in Flanders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yannick Vandendijck

    Full Text Available In 2003, an internet-based monitoring system of influenza-like illness (ILI, the Great Influenza Survey (GIS, was initiated in Belgium. For the Flemish part of Belgium, we investigate the representativeness of the GIS population and assess the validity of the survey in terms of ILI incidence during eight influenza seasons (from 2003 through 2011. The validity is investigated by comparing estimated ILI incidences from the GIS with recorded incidences from two other monitoring systems, (i the Belgian Sentinel Network and (ii the Google Flu Trends, and by performing a risk factor analysis to investigate whether the risks on acquiring ILI in the GIS population are comparable with results in the literature. A random walk model of first order is used to estimate ILI incidence trends based on the GIS. Good to excellent correspondence is observed between the estimated ILI trends in the GIS and the recorded trends in the Sentinel Network and the Google Flu Trends. The results of the risk factor analysis are in line with the literature. In conclusion, the GIS is a useful additional surveillance network for ILI monitoring in Flanders. The advantages are the speed at which information is available and the fact that data is gathered directly in the community at an individual level.

  4. Recent trends in water analysis triggering future monitoring of organic micropollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Torsten C

    2018-03-21

    Water analysis has been an important area since the beginning of analytical chemistry. The focus though has shifted substantially: from minerals and the main constituents of water in the time of Carl Remigius Fresenius to a multitude of, in particular, organic compounds at concentrations down to the sub-nanogram per liter level nowadays. This was possible only because of numerous innovations in instrumentation in recent decades, drivers of which are briefly discussed. In addition to the high demands on sensitivity, high throughput by automation and short analysis times are major requirements. In this article, some recent developments in the chemical analysis of organic micropollutants (OMPs) are presented. These include the analysis of priority pollutants in whole water samples, extension of the analytical window, in particular to encompass highly polar compounds, the trend toward more than one separation dimension before mass spectrometric detection, and ways of coping with unknown analytes by suspect and nontarget screening approaches involving high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, beyond gathering reliable concentration data for many OMPs, the question of the relevance of such data for the aquatic system under scrutiny is becoming ever more important. To that end, effect-based analytics can be used and may become part of future routine monitoring, mostly with a focus on adverse effects of OMPs in specific test systems mimicking environmental impacts. Despite advances in the field of water analysis in recent years, there are still many challenges for further analytical research. Graphical abstract Recent trends in water analysis of organic micropollutants that open new opportunities in future water monitoring. HRMS high-resolution mass spectrometry, PMOC persistent mobile organic compounds.

  5. Epidemiology and trends for Caesarean section births in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Jonathan M

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Caesarean section (CS rates around the world have been increasing and in Australia have reached 30% of all births. Robson's Ten-Group Classification System (10-group classification provides a clinically relevant classification of CS rates that provides a useful basis for international comparisons and trend analyses. This study aimed to investigate trends in CS rates in New South Wales (NSW, including trends in the components of the 10-group classification. Methods We undertook a cross-sectional study using data from the Midwives Data Collection, a state-wide surveillance system that monitors patterns of pregnancy care, services and pregnancy outcomes in New South Wales, Australia. The study population included all women giving birth between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2008. Descriptive statistics are presented including age-standardised CS rates, annual percentage change as well as regression analyses. Results From 1998 to 2008 the CS rate in NSW increased from 19.1 to 29.5 per 100 births. There was a significant average annual increase in primary 4.3% (95%CI 3.0-5.7% and repeat 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7% CS rates from 1998 to 2008. After adjusting for maternal and pregnancy factors, the increase in CS delivery over time was maintained. When examining CS rates classified according to the 10-group classification, the greatest contributors to the overall CS rate and the largest annual increases occurred among nulliparae at term having elective CS and multipara having elective repeat CS. Conclusions Given that the increased CS rate cannot be explained by known and collected maternal or pregnancy characteristics, the increase may be related to differences in clinical decision making or maternal request. Future efforts to reduce the overall CS rate should be focussed on reducing the primary CS rate.

  6. A review of the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for monitoring population levels of alcohol consumption: a Scottish perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Mark; Thorpe, Rachel; Beeston, Clare; McCartney, Gerry

    2013-01-01

    To assess the validity and reliability of using alcohol retail sales data to measure and monitor population levels of alcohol consumption. Potential sources of bias that could lead to under- or overestimation of population alcohol consumption based on alcohol retail sales data were identified and, where possible, quantified. This enabled an assessment of the potential impact of each bias on alcohol consumption estimates in Scotland. Overall, considering all the possible sources of overestimation and underestimation, and taking into account the potential for sampling variability to impact on the results, the range of uncertainty of consumption during 2010 was from an overestimate of 0.3 l to an underestimate of 2.4 l of pure alcohol per adult. This excludes the impacts of alcohol stockpiling and alcohol sold through outlets not included in the sampling frame. On balance, there is therefore far greater scope for alcohol retail sales data to be underestimating per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland than there is for overestimation. Alcohol retail sales data offer a robust source of data for monitoring per adult alcohol consumption in Scotland. Consideration of the sources of bias and a comprehensive understanding of data collection methods are essential for using sales data to monitor trends in alcohol consumption.

  7. Hair mercury levels in Amazonian populations: spatial distribution and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbieri Flavia L

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mercury is present in the Amazonian aquatic environments from both natural and anthropogenic sources. As a consequence, many riverside populations are exposed to methylmercury, a highly toxic organic form of mercury, because of their intense fish consumption. Many studies have analysed this exposure from different approaches since the early nineties. This review aims to systematize the information in spatial distribution, comparing hair mercury levels by studied population and Amazonian river basin, looking for exposure trends. Methods The reviewed papers were selected from scientific databases and online libraries. We included studies with a direct measure of hair mercury concentrations in a sample size larger than 10 people, without considering the objectives, approach of the study or mercury speciation. The results are presented in tables and maps by river basin, displaying hair mercury levels and specifying the studied population and health impact, if any. Results The majority of the studies have been carried out in communities from the central Amazonian regions, particularly on the Tapajós River basin. The results seem quite variable; hair mercury means range from 1.1 to 34.2 μg/g. Most studies did not show any significant difference in hair mercury levels by gender or age. Overall, authors emphasized fish consumption frequency as the main risk factor of exposure. The most studied adverse health effect is by far the neurological performance, especially motricity. However, it is not possible to conclude on the relation between hair mercury levels and health impact in the Amazonian situation because of the relatively small number of studies. Conclusions Hair mercury levels in the Amazonian regions seem to be very heterogenic, depending on several factors. There is no obvious spatial trend and there are many areas that have never been studied. Taking into account the low mercury levels currently handled as acceptable, the

  8. Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

  9. Annual environmental monitoring report of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, 1981

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleimer, G.E.

    1982-06-01

    Results for 1981 of the LBL Environmental Monitoring Program are given. Data include monitoring results for accelerator-produced radiation, airborne and waterborne radionuclides, and nonradioactive pollutants. Population doses resulting from LBL operations are given in terms of accelerator-produced and airborne radioactivities. Trends in the environmental impacts of LBL operations are discussed in terms of accelerator-produced, airborne, and waterborne radionuclides

  10. Overview of national bird population monitoring programs and databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory S. Butcher; Bruce Peterjohn; C. John Ralph

    1993-01-01

    A number of programs have been set up to monitor populations of nongame migratory birds. We review these programs and their purposes and provide information on obtaining data or results from these programs. In addition, we review recommendations for improving these programs.

  11. From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

    2015-01-01

    Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

  12. Trends and Determinants of Prescription Drug Use during Pregnancy and Postpartum in British Columbia, 2002-2011: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Smolina

    Full Text Available To describe trends, patterns, and determinants of prescription drug use during pregnancy and postpartum.This is a retrospective, population-based study of all women who gave birth between January 2002 and 31 December 2011 in British Columbia, Canada. Study population consisted of 225,973 women who had 322,219 pregnancies. We examined administrative datasets containing person-specific information on filled prescriptions, hospitalizations, and medical services. Main outcome measures were filled prescriptions during pregnancy and postpartum. We used logistic regressions to examine associations between prescription drug use and maternal characteristics.Approximately two thirds of women filled a prescription during pregnancy, increasing from 60% in 2002 to 66% in 2011. The proportion of pregnant women using medicines in all three trimesters of pregnancy increased from 20% in 2002 to 27% in 2011. Use of four or more different types of prescription drug during at least one trimester increased from 8.4% in 2002 to 11.7% in 2011. Higher BMI, smoking during pregnancy, age under 25, carrying multiples, and being diagnosed with a chronic condition all significantly increased the odds of prescription drug use during pregnancy.The observed increase in the number of prescriptions and number of different drugs being dispensed suggests a trend in prescribing practices with potentially important implications for mothers, their neonates, and caregivers. Monitoring of prescribing practices and further research into the safety of most commonly prescribed medications is crucial in better understanding risks and benefits to the fetus and the mother.

  13. A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vongraven, Dag; Aars, Jon; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; DeBruyn, T.D.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Durner, George M.; Gill, Michael J.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Omelak, Jack; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Peacock, Elizabeth; Richardson, E.E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Stirling, Ian; Wiig, Øystein

    2012-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework

  14. The farming population in Ireland: mortality trends during the 'Celtic Tiger' years.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Smyth, Breda

    2012-03-21

    Background Although the Irish farming population is a significant occupational group, analysis of their mortality patterns is limited. This study compared mortality trends with other occupational groups and assessed the impact of socio-economic factors. Methods Population and mortality data (2000-06) were obtained to calculate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) by cause of death and matched with socio-economic data. The extent to which variation in mortality was explained by variations in the socio-economic data was determined using multiple regression. Results Farmers and agricultural workers experienced the highest levels of mortality for all causes of death (2000-06). Farmers are 5.14 times more likely and agricultural workers are 7.35 times more likely to die from any cause of death than the lowest risk group. Circulatory disease is a significant cause of mortality among farmers [SMR = 215.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 201.83-229.98]. Other significant causes include cancers (SMR = 156.60, CI = 146.73-166.48) and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 149.69, CI = 135.44-163.93). Agricultural workers have similar mortality trends: circulatory disease (SMR = 226.27; CI = 192.45-260.08), cancers (SMR = 221.44; CI = 193.88-249.00), and injuries and poisonings (SMR = 353.90; CI = 302.48-405.32). From 2000 to 2006, SMRs increased incrementally. Multiple regression identified farm size and income poverty risk as predictors of mortality. Conclusion Irish farmers and agricultural workers have experienced a reversal of mortality trends compared to the 1980s and 1990s. Policies should target them as a high-risk group.

  15. Changes of population trends and mortality patterns in response to the reintroduction of large predators: The case study of African ungulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grange, Sophie; Owen-Smith, Norman; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Druce, Dave J.; Moleón, Marcos; Mgobozi, Mandisa

    2012-07-01

    Large predators have been reintroduced to an increasing number of protected areas in South Africa. However, the conditions allowing both prey and predator populations to be sustained in enclosed areas are still unclear as there is a lack of understanding of the consequences of such reintroductions for ungulate population dynamics. Variation in lion numbers, two decades after their first release, offered a special opportunity to test the effects of predation pressure on the population dynamics of seven ungulate species in the 960 km2 Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa. We used two different approaches to examine predator-prey relationships: the population response of ungulates to predation pressure after accounting for possible confounding factors, and the pattern of ungulate adult mortality observed from carcass records. Rainfall patterns affected observed mortalities of several ungulate species in HiP. Although lion predation accounted for most ungulate mortality, it still had no detectable influence on ungulate population trends and mortality patterns, with one possible exception. This evidence suggests that the lion population had not yet attained the maximum abundance potentially supported by their ungulate prey; but following recent increases in lion numbers it will probably occur soon. It remains uncertain whether a quasi-stable balance will be reached between prey and predator populations, or whether favoured prey species will be depressed towards levels potentially generating oscillatory dynamics in this complex large mammal assemblage. We specifically recommend a continuous monitoring of predator and prey populations in HiP since lions are likely to show more impacts on their prey species in the next years.

  16. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  17. Prescription Monitoring Program Trends Among Individuals Arrested in Maine for Trafficking Prescription Drugs in 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Kenneth; Nichols, Stephanie D; Holt, Christina; Ochs, Leslie; Cattabriga, Gary; Tu, Chunhao

    2016-06-01

    To evaluate controlled substance prescribing trends available in the Maine Prescription Monitoring Program (PMP) among individuals arrested for prescription drug "trafficking." The demographic characteristics of the individuals who had matching prescription records in the PMP within 90 days of the arrest were identified. A population-based, retrospective cohort study using data from the Maine Diversion Alert Program (DAP) and the Maine PMP. The study population consisted of persons arrested for trafficking prescription drugs in Maine during the 2014 calendar year from January 1 to December 31. There were 594 trafficking arrests reported by the Maine DAP in 2014. The study population consisted of the 235 persons (40%) with arrests involving controlled prescription medications. The mean age of these persons was 33 years (range 18-77 yrs), and 156 (66%) were male. Arrests involved 154 prescription opioids (65%), seven stimulants (3%), seven benzodiazepines (3%), and 77 unspecified controlled prescription drugs (33%). A minority of individuals (n=57, 24%) had a prescription record in the PMP that matched the substance involved in the arrest. Only one person with matching PMP and arrest records utilized ≥ 5 prescribers, while none used ≥ 5 pharmacies within 90 days before the arrest. Payment methods for matching prescriptions were commercial insurance (n=28, 49%), Medicaid (n=19, 33%), Medicare (n=5, 9%), and cash (n=5, 9%). The majority (76%) of persons arrested for prescription drug trafficking did not have PMP records and did not directly obtain the diverted medication from a licensed pharmacy. Traditional red flags, like cash payment and using multiple prescribers or pharmacies, were uncommon. Therefore, arrest records for diversion and PMPs are distinct and complementary tools for identifying individuals at risk for substance misuse. © 2016 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

  18. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

  19. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Flousek

    Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  20. Determining population trends and conservation status of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puigcerver, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the conservation status and population trends of the common quail (Coturnix coturnix from 1900 to the present. Data are sometimes contradictory with regard to the status of this species as it has some features that make it difficult to produce reliable population estimates. Recent data clearly suggest, either at a local scale or at a trans–national scale, that the Atlantic common quail populations have remained stable in the last two decades, and that restocking practices with farm–reared quails (hybrids with the Japanese quail, Coturnix japonica do not affect our estimates. The complex movement patterns showed by this species require special attention. Analysis of ring recoveries can give important information, especially about the nomadic movement of quails in search of suitable habitats after the destruction of winter cereal crops due to harvesting. Thus, when developing a breeding distribution model for this species, continuously updated information on seasonal habitat and weather must be included for optimal prediction. Including fortnightly data of vegetation indices in distribution models, for example, has shown good results. Obtaining reliable predictions about changes in species distribution and movements during the breeding period could provide useful knowledge about the conservation status and population trends and would help in the design of future management measures.

  1. A Review of Player Monitoring Approaches in Basketball: Current Trends and Future Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jordan L; Scanlan, Aaron T; Stanton, Robert

    2017-07-01

    Fox, JL, Scanlan, AT, and Stanton, R. A review of player monitoring approaches in basketball: current trends and future directions. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 2021-2029, 2017-Effective monitoring of players in team sports such as basketball requires an understanding of the external demands and internal responses, as they relate to training phases and competition. Monitoring of external demands and internal responses allows coaching staff to determine the dose-response associated with the imposed training load (TL), and subsequently, if players are adequately prepared for competition. This review discusses measures reported in the literature for monitoring the external demands and internal responses of basketball players during training and competition. The external demands of training and competition were primarily monitored using time-motion analysis, with limited use of microtechnology being reported. Internal responses during training were typically measured using hematological markers, heart rate, various TL models, and perceptual responses such as rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Heart rate was the most commonly reported indicator of internal responses during competition with limited reporting of hematological markers or RPE. These findings show a large discrepancy between the reporting of external and internal measures and training and competition demands. Microsensors, however, may be a practical and convenient method of player monitoring in basketball to overcome the limitations associated with current approaches while allowing for external demands and internal responses to be recorded simultaneously. The triaxial accelerometers of microsensors seem well suited for basketball and warrant validation to definitively determine their place in the monitoring of basketball players. Coaching staff should make use of this technology by tracking individual player responses across the annual plan and using real-time monitoring to minimize factors such as fatigue

  2. Trends of forest area and population and the impact of population on forest area per hectare in Serbia without APS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Nenad

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Socio-economic changes throughout history have shaped the attitude towards the forest and most significant ones are changes in terms of population. Over the centuries population and population density have had a significant impact on deforestation and the reduction of forest areas. Therefore, it is important to check what kind of trends are concerned and how population growth affects forest areas, forest cover and forest area per capita. These elements are important for assessing the direction, intensity of activity and the degree of success in the implementation of all forest policy measures in Serbia. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Istraživanja klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu - praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje, podprojekat, br. 43007/16-III: Socio-ekonomski razvoj, ublažavanje i adaptacija na klimatske promene

  3. Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

    2014-09-01

    Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9% (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0

  5. Abundance, distribution and population trends of Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) in Gonarezhou National Park, Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zisadza-Gandiwa, P.; Gandiwa, E.; Jakarasi, J.; Westhuizen, van der H.; Muvengwi, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) is an iconic or keystone species in many aquatic ecosystems. In order to understand the abundance, distribution, and population trends of Nile crocodiles in Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), southeastern Zimbabwe, we carried out 4 annual aerial surveys, using

  6. Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

    2014-12-01

    Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary sugars intake. Only thirteen countries (all in the developed world) appear to report estimates of sugars intake from national nutrition surveys at more than one point in time. Definitions of dietary sugars that were used include 'total sugars', 'non-milk extrinsic sugars', 'added sugars', sucrose' and 'mono- and disaccharides'. This variability in terminology across countries meant that comparisons were limited to within countries. Hence trends in dietary sugars intake were examined by country for the whole population (where data permitted), and for specific or combined age and sex subpopulations. Findings indicate that in the majority of population comparisons, estimated dietary sugars intake is either stable or decreasing in both absolute (g/d) and relative (% energy) terms. An increase in sugars intake was observed in few countries and only in specific subpopulations. In conclusion, the findings from the present review suggest that, in the main, dietary sugars intake are decreasing or stable. A consistent approach to estimation of dietary sugars intake from national nutrition surveys is required if more valid estimates of changes in dietary sugars intakes are required in the future.

  7. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART from 2002 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Biedenbach

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs, were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086 and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705 were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  8. A Review of Ten Years of the Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART) from 2002 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrissey, Ian; Hackel, Meredith; Badal, Robert; Bouchillon, Sam; Hawser, Stephen; Biedenbach, Douglas

    2013-11-01

    Surveillance of antimicrobial agent resistance provides important information to guide microbiologists and infectious disease specialists understanding of the control and the spread of resistance mechanisms within the local environment. Continued monitoring of antimicrobial resistance patterns in the community and in local hospital environments is essential to guide effective empiric therapy. The Study for Monitoring Antimicrobial Resistance Trends (SMART) has monitored the in vitro susceptibility patterns of clinical Gram-negative bacilli to antimicrobial agents collected worldwide from intra-abdominal infections since 2002 and urinary tract infections since 2009. Resistance trends, with a particular focus on carbapenem resistance and the rate of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs), were analyzed. Isolates from intra-abdominal infections (n = 92,086) and urinary-tract infections (n = 24,705) were collected and tested using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methods. This review presents carbapenem susceptibility and ESBL rates over ten years of SMART study analysis, including key publications during this period. The SMART study has proved to be a valuable resource in determining pathogen prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility over the last ten years and continues to provide evidence for regulatory susceptibility breakpoints and clinical decision making.

  9. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  10. Development of a pan-Arctic monitoring plan for polar bears: Background paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vongraven, Dag; Peacock, Lily

    2011-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), by their very nature, and the extreme, remote environment in which they live, are inherently difficult to study and monitor. Monitoring polar bear populations is both arduous and costly and, to be effective, must be a long-term commitment. There are few jurisdictional governments and management boards with a mandate for polar bear research and management, and many have limited resources. Although population monitoring of polar bears has been a focus to some degree within most jurisdictions around the Arctic, of the 19 subpopulations recognised by the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), adequate scientific trend data exist for only three of the subpopulations, fair trend data for five and poor or no trend data for the remaining 11 subpopulations (PBSG 2010a). There are especially critical knowledge gaps for the subpopulations in East Greenland, in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas, and in the Chukchi Sea, which is shared between Russia and the United States. The range covered by these subpopulations represents a third of the total area (approx. 23 million km2) of polar bears’ current range, and more than half if the Arctic Basin is included. If we use popular terms, we know close to nothing about polar bears in this portion of their range.As summer sea-ice extent, and to a lesser degree, spring-time extent, continues to retreat, outpacing model forecasts (Stroeve et al. 2007, Pedersen et al. 2009), polar bears face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing habitats. There is a need to use current and synthesised information across the Arctic, and to develop new methods that will facilitate monitoring to generate new knowledge at a pan-Arctic scale. The circumpolar dimension can be lost when efforts are channelled into regional monitoring. Developing and implementing a plan that harmonises local, regional and global efforts will increase our power to detect and understand important trends for polar

  11. Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry

    2010-06-01

    Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

  12. Trends of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (Magnoliophyta in the Canary Islands: population changes in the last two decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Fabbri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass meadows perform essential ecosystem functions and services. Though the meadows are globally deteriorating, numerous regressions remain unreported as a result of data fragmentation. Cymodocea nodosa is the most important seagrass in shallow coastal waters of the Canary Islands. No study has so far investigated temporal population trends at the entire archipelago scale. Using data collected in the past 23 years by local companies, public authorities and research groups, the population trends of Cymodocea nodosa were analysed over the past two decades at the scales of islands, island sectors and meadows. During this period, a prevalence of negative trends was revealed for three seagrass demographic descriptors (seagrass shoot density, coverage and leaf length at the three scales, evidencing an overall deterioration in seagrass meadow integrity. These results suggest the need to develop correct management strategies to guarantee the conservation of this seagrass and the meadows it creates.

  13. Guidelines for collecting and maintaining archives for genetic monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Jennifer A.; Laikre, Linda; Baker, C. Scott; Kendall, Katherine C.; ,

    2012-01-01

    Rapid advances in molecular genetic techniques and the statistical analysis of genetic data have revolutionized the way that populations of animals, plants and microorganisms can be monitored. Genetic monitoring is the practice of using molecular genetic markers to track changes in the abundance, diversity or distribution of populations, species or ecosystems over time, and to follow adaptive and non-adaptive genetic responses to changing external conditions. In recent years, genetic monitoring has become a valuable tool in conservation management of biological diversity and ecological analysis, helping to illuminate and define cryptic and poorly understood species and populations. Many of the detected biodiversity declines, changes in distribution and hybridization events have helped to drive changes in policy and management. Because a time series of samples is necessary to detect trends of change in genetic diversity and species composition, archiving is a critical component of genetic monitoring. Here we discuss the collection, development, maintenance, and use of archives for genetic monitoring. This includes an overview of the genetic markers that facilitate effective monitoring, describes how tissue and DNA can be stored, and provides guidelines for proper practice.

  14. Trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olajide Toye Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The reported health and socioeconomic consequences of ear piercing, especially in modern day society, underscore the need to further research into this subject. In this study, we determine the trends and complications of ear piercing among selected Nigerian population. Aim and Objectives: The aim and objective of this study was to draw attention to the trends and complications of ear piercing with a view to prevent its associated complications. Methodology: It is a descriptive cross-sectional study carried out between February and May 2015 among selected Nigerian population from two of its six geo-political zones. A self-administered semi-structured questionnaire which had been pretested was used to collect data from 458 respondents who consented using multistage sampling technique. Results: Of 480 respondents enumerated, 458 completed the questionnaires and gave their biodata. The male:female ratio was 1:6.2. Their ages ranged from 18 to 75 years with a mean of 35.56 ± 10.16. About 35.4% of the respondents were within the age group of 31–40 years. Majority of the respondents, i.e.,79.3% practiced ear piercing on their children. Most of them (86.8% preferred single piercing. Ear piercing was performed within the 1st week of birth in 37.2% of the respondents. Large percentage (93.2% of the respondents will not encourage ear piercing in male children. Nearly 20.5% of the respondents observed complications. Conclusion: Ear piercing remained a common practice in Nigeria, with respondents preferring it on females. Majority of the piercings are done in childhood and by untrained personnel. Keloid formation was the notable complication observed by the respondents. There is a need to increase awareness about the hazards of ear piercings and to enact laws that regulate ear piercings particularly in children which is hereby stretched.

  15. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  16. Recent Trends in Veteran Unemployment as Measured in the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Savych, Bogdan; Klerman, Jacob A; Loughran, David S

    2008-01-01

    This technical report explores recent trends in the unemployment of recent veterans as estimated from two nationally representative surveys, the Current Population Survey "CPS" and the American Community Survey "ACS...

  17. Childhood obesity trends from primary care electronic health records in England between 1994 and 2013: population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Jaarsveld, Cornelia H M; Gulliford, Martin C

    2015-03-01

    This study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2-15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades. Cohort study of primary care electronic health records. 375 general practices in England that contribute to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individual participants were sampled if they were aged between 2 and 15 years during the period 1994-2013 and had one or more records of body mass index (BMI). Prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was defined as a BMI equal to or greater than the 85th centile of the 1990 UK reference population. Data were analysed for 370 544 children with 507 483 BMI records. From 1994 to 2003, the odds of overweight and obesity increased by 8.1% per year (95% CI 7.2% to 8.9%) compared with 0.4% (-0.2% to 1.1%) from 2004 to 2013. Trends were similar for boys and girls, but differed by age groups, with prevalence stabilising in 2004 to 2013 in the younger (2-10 year) but not older (11-15 year) age group, where rates continued to increase. Primary care electronic health records in England may provide a valuable resource for monitoring obesity trends. More than a third of UK children are overweight or obese, but the prevalence of overweight and obesity may have stabilised between 2004 and 2013. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  18. Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible

  19. Acid emissions monitoring needs in ceramic tile industry: challenges derived from new policy trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celades, Irina; Gomar, Salvador; Romero, Fernando; Chauhan, Amisha; Delpech, Bertrand; Jouhara, Hussam

    2017-11-01

    The emission of acid compounds during the manufacture of ceramic tiles is strongly related to the presence of precursors in the raw materials and/or fuels used, with some exceptions such as the production of thermal NOX. The stages with the potential to produce significant emissions of these compounds have been identified as the suspension spray drying and tile firing stages. The monitoring of emission levels of acid pollutants in these stages has turned in a great importance issue from a regulatory and industrial aspect. The DREAM project (https://www.spire2030.eu/dream) will tackle the regulation of acidic emissions focusing in the firing stage. The initial stages of the project have made it possible to identify the design requirements for the monitoring system. This will allow the control of acid pollutants emissions and other key parameters such as pressure, flow, temperature and humidity. One of the tasks developed has been the review and compilation of current emissions monitoring systems detailing technical specifications such as: position (in situ or extractive), measurement principle and frequency. The future policy trends in air pollution are encouraging the continuous monitoring across the European industry. The present document assesses the advantages regarding environmental impact control, highlighting the main challenges for the ceramic tile industry.

  20. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M.

    2006-01-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Edmonton, as well as the NO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO 2 and O 3 for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM 2.5 . There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay

  1. Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

    2017-01-01

    Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

  2. Can we monitor heart attack in the troponin era: evidence from a population-based cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rankin Jamie M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Troponins (highly sensitive biomarkers of myocardial damage increase counts of myocardial infarction (MI in clinical practice, but their impact on trends in admission rates for MI in National statistics is uncertain. Methods Cases coded as MI or other cardiac diagnoses in the Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (MI-HMDC in Western Australia in 1998 and 2003 were classified using revised criteria for MI developed by an International panel convened by the American Heart Association (AHA criteria using information on symptoms, ECGs and cardiac biomarkers abstracted from samples of medical notes. Age-sex standardized rates of MI-HMDC were compared with rates of MI based on AHA criteria including troponins (MI-AHA or traditional biomarkers only (MI-AHAck. Results Between 1998 and 2003, rates of MI-HMDC decreased by 3.5% whereas rates of MI-AHA increased by 17%, a difference largely due to increased false-negative cases in the HMDC associated with marked increased use of troponin tests in cardiac admissions generally, and progressively lower test thresholds. In contrast, rates of MI-AHAck declined by 18%. Conclusions Increasing misclassification of MI-AHA by the HMDC may be due to reluctance by clinicians to diagnose MI based on relatively small increases in troponin levels. These influences are likely to continue. Monitoring MI using AHA criteria will require calibration of commercially available troponin tests and agreement on lower diagnostic thresholds for epidemiological studies. Declining rates of MI-AHAck are consistent with long-standing trends in MI in Western Australia, suggesting that neither MI-HMDC nor MI-AHA reflect the true underlying population trends in MI.

  3. Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Yang, Wen-Hsi; Arab, Ali

    2016-01-01

    A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

  4. Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L Crewe

    Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

  5. Increasing trend of wearables and multimodal interface for human activity monitoring: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Preeti; Mathew, Lini; Syal, Poonam

    2017-04-15

    Activity recognition technology is one of the most important technologies for life-logging and for the care of elderly persons. Elderly people prefer to live in their own houses, within their own locality. If, they are capable to do so, several benefits can follow in terms of society and economy. However, living alone may have high risks. Wearable sensors have been developed to overcome these risks and these sensors are supposed to be ready for medical uses. It can help in monitoring the wellness of elderly persons living alone by unobtrusively monitoring their daily activities. The study aims to review the increasing trends of wearable devices and need of multimodal recognition for continuous or discontinuous monitoring of human activity, biological signals such as Electroencephalogram (EEG), Electrooculogram (EOG), Electromyogram (EMG), Electrocardiogram (ECG) and parameters along with other symptoms. This can provide necessary assistance in times of ominous need, which is crucial for the advancement of disease-diagnosis and treatment. Shared control architecture with multimodal interface can be used for application in more complex environment where more number of commands is to be used to control with better results in terms of controlling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Non-invasive genetic censusing and monitoring of primate populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arandjelovic, Mimi; Vigilant, Linda

    2018-03-01

    Knowing the density or abundance of primate populations is essential for their conservation management and contextualizing socio-demographic and behavioral observations. When direct counts of animals are not possible, genetic analysis of non-invasive samples collected from wildlife populations allows estimates of population size with higher accuracy and precision than is possible using indirect signs. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional indirect survey methods, prolonged or periodic genetic sampling across months or years enables inference of group membership, movement, dynamics, and some kin relationships. Data may also be used to estimate sex ratios, sex differences in dispersal distances, and detect gene flow among locations. Recent advances in capture-recapture models have further improved the precision of population estimates derived from non-invasive samples. Simulations using these methods have shown that the confidence interval of point estimates includes the true population size when assumptions of the models are met, and therefore this range of population size minima and maxima should be emphasized in population monitoring studies. Innovations such as the use of sniffer dogs or anti-poaching patrols for sample collection are important to ensure adequate sampling, and the expected development of efficient and cost-effective genotyping by sequencing methods for DNAs derived from non-invasive samples will automate and speed analyses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Development and evaluation of a new method for sampling and monitoring the symphylid population in pineapple

    OpenAIRE

    Soler, A.; Gaude, J. M.; Marie-Alphonsine, P. A.; Vinatier, F.; Dole, B.; Govindin, J. C.; Fournier, P.; Quénéhervé, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Symphylids (Hanseniella sp.) are polyphagous soilborne parasites. Today, symphylid populations on pineapple are monitored by observing root symptoms and the presence of symphylids at the bottom of basal leaves. The authors developed a reliable method with a bait and trap device to monitor symphylid populations in pineapple or fallow crops. The spatial distribution of the symphylid populations was evaluated using the variance/mean ratios and spatial analyses based on Moran's and Ge...

  8. Less overdiagnosis of kidney cancer? an age-period-cohort analysis of incidence trends in 16 populations worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znaor, Ariana; Laversanne, Mathieu; Bray, Freddie

    2017-09-01

    The increasing rates of kidney cancer incidence, reported in many populations globally, have been attributed both to increasing exposures to environmental risk factors, as well as increasing levels of incidental diagnosis due to widespread use of imaging. To better understand these trends, we examine long-term cancer registry data worldwide, focusing on the roles of birth cohort and calendar period, proxies for changes in risk factor prevalence and detection practice respectively. We used an augmented version of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series to analyze kidney cancer incidence rates 1978-2007 in 16 geographically representative populations worldwide by sex for ages 30-74, using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The full APC model provided the best fit to the data in most studied populations. While kidney cancer incidence rates have been increasing in successive generations born from the early twentieth century in most countries, equivalent period-specific rises were observed from the late-1970s, although these have subsequently stabilized in certain European countries (the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Finland, Spain) as well as Japan from the mid-1990s, and from the mid-2000s, in Colombia, Costa Rica and Australia. Our results indicate that the effects of both birth cohort and calendar period contribute to the international kidney cancer incidence trends. While cohort-specific increases may partly reflect the rising trends in obesity prevalence and the need for more effective primary prevention policies, the attenuations in period-specific increases (observed in 8 of the 16 populations) highlight a possible change in imaging practices that could lead to mitigation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. © 2017 UICC.

  9. Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn B Meyer

    Full Text Available Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix, common buzzard (Buteo buteo, and red kite (Milvus milvus. We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species and poisons (4-46% of mortality reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe, stable for buzzard (in Germany, and increasing for red kite (in Wales. Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%. The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently

  10. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  11. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian S.; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. PMID:29364953

  12. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers.

  13. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...... height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men age......, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  14. Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

  15. Trends and determinant factors in hypertension control in a population study with 25 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The present study focused on trend in hypertension control and on determinant factors that may influence efficacy in antihypertensive therapy. Two measures of treatment efficacy were used: population blood pressure and the relative frequency of effectively treated patients (blood press...

  16. Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program, Entiat River Status and Trend Snorkel Surveys and Rotary Smolt Trap Operations in Nason Creek, March 2007 through March 2008.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, Matthew; Jorgensen, John; Murdock, Keely

    2008-03-10

    The Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program (ISEMP-BPA project No.2003-0017) has been created as a cost effective means of developing protocols and new technologies, novel indicators, sample designs, analytical, data management and communication tools and skills, and restoration experiments that support the development of a region-wide Research, Monitoring and Evaluation (RME) program to assess the status of anadromous salmonid populations, their tributary habitat and restoration and management actions. The most straightforward approach to developing a regional-scale monitoring and evaluation program would be to increase standardization among status and trend monitoring programs. However, the diversity of species and their habitat, as well as the overwhelming uncertainty surrounding indicators, metrics, and data interpretation methods, requires the testing of multiple approaches. Thus, the approach ISEMP has adopted is to develop a broad template that may differ in the details among subbasins, but one that will ultimately lead to the formation of a unified RME process for the management of anadromous salmonid populations and habitat across the Columbia River Basin. ISEMP has been initiated in three pilot subbasins, the Wenatchee/Entiat, John Day, and Salmon. To balance replicating experimental approaches with the goal of developing monitoring and evaluation tools that apply as broadly as possible across the Pacific Northwest, these subbasins were chosen as representative of a wide range of potential challenges and conditions, e.g., differing fish species composition and life histories, ecoregions, institutional settings, and existing data. ISEMP has constructed a framework that builds on current status and trend monitoring infrastructures in these pilot subbasins, but challenges current programs by testing alternative monitoring approaches. In addition, the ISEMP is: (1) Collecting information over a hierarchy of spatial scales, allowing for a

  17. Selected trends in lung cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Berzinec, P.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The lung cancer is still among the dominant malignant tumors despite declining trend of incidence, especially in men, and also its adverse prognosis remains. Aim: The aim of the study was to analyse the development of long-term trends in incidence and mortality and to produce a prospective estimate of prevalence and overall burden of lung cancer in the population in the Slovak Republic. Results: A significant drop of incidence of the disease in men has been seen in Slovakia since 1988 by a mean annual percentage change of -2.16%, whereby mortality is declining a little faster (by an annual percentage change of -2.87%). Adverse trend has been registered in both indicators in case of lung cancer in women, with incidence rising since 2001 by 5.31% annually and mortality rising by 1.3% for the whole monitored period. Conclusion: The adverse rising trend in the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in women in the Slovak Republic, as well as the slower decline in incidence and mortality in men compared with some countries of Western Europe, will have an impact in future also on total costs for management of this disease. (author)

  18. Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Owen T.; Bunnell, David B.

    2009-01-01

    Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We also provide indices for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references.For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance (W), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P-value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated

  19. Trends in adherence to recommended cancer screening: The US population and working cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainya C. Clarke

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Over the past decade the United States has seen a decrease in advanced cancer diagnoses. There has also been an increase in the number of cancer survivors returning to work. Cancer screening behaviors among survivors may play an important role in their return-to-work process. Adherence to a post-treatment cancer screening protocol increases early detection of secondary tumors and reduces potentially limiting side-effects. We compared screening trends among all cancer survivors, working survivors, and the general population over the last decade.Methods: Trends in adherence to recommended screening were analyzed by site-specific cancer. We used the Healthy People goals as a measure of desired adherence. We selected participants 18+ years from 1997 to 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS for years where detailed cancer screening information was available. Using the recommendations of the American Cancer Society as a guide, we assessed adherence to cancer screening across the decade. There were 174,393 participants. Analyses included 7,528 working cancer survivors representing 3.8 million US workers, and 119,374 adults representing more than 100 million working Americans with no cancer history.Results: The US population met the Healthy People 2010 goal for colorectal screening, but declined in all other recommended cancer screening. Cancer survivors met and maintained the HP2010 goal for all, except cervical cancer screening. Survivors had higher screening rates than the general population. Among survivors, white-collar and service occupations had higher screening rates than blue-collar survivors.Conclusions: Cancer survivors report higher screening rates than the general population. Nevertheless, national screening rates are lower than desired, and disparities exist by cancer history and occupation. Understanding existing disparities, and the impact of cancer screening on survivors is crucial as the number of working survivors

  20. Comparison of Three Plot Selection Methods for Estimating Change in Temporally Variable, Spatially Clustered Populations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, William L. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (US). Environment, Fish and Wildlife

    2001-07-01

    Monitoring population numbers is important for assessing trends and meeting various legislative mandates. However, sampling across time introduces a temporal aspect to survey design in addition to the spatial one. For instance, a sample that is initially representative may lose this attribute if there is a shift in numbers and/or spatial distribution in the underlying population that is not reflected in later sampled plots. Plot selection methods that account for this temporal variability will produce the best trend estimates. Consequently, I used simulation to compare bias and relative precision of estimates of population change among stratified and unstratified sampling designs based on permanent, temporary, and partial replacement plots under varying levels of spatial clustering, density, and temporal shifting of populations. Permanent plots produced more precise estimates of change than temporary plots across all factors. Further, permanent plots performed better than partial replacement plots except for high density (5 and 10 individuals per plot) and 25% - 50% shifts in the population. Stratified designs always produced less precise estimates of population change for all three plot selection methods, and often produced biased change estimates and greatly inflated variance estimates under sampling with partial replacement. Hence, stratification that remains fixed across time should be avoided when monitoring populations that are likely to exhibit large changes in numbers and/or spatial distribution during the study period. Key words: bias; change estimation; monitoring; permanent plots; relative precision; sampling with partial replacement; temporary plots.

  1. Socioeconomic status and trends in risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osler, M; Gerdes, L U; Davidsen, M

    2000-01-01

    The decline in cardiovascular mortality in Denmark during the 1980s has been greatest in the highest socioeconomic groups of the population. This study examines whether the increased social inequality in cardiovascular mortality has been accompanied by a different trend in cardiovascular risk...

  2. Offsite environmental monitoring report: Radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaloud, D.J.; Dicey, B.B.; Mullen, A.A.; Neale, A.C.; Sparks, A.R.; Fontana, C.A.; Carroll, L.D.; Phillips, W.G.; Smith, D.D.; Thome, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This report describes the Offsite Radiation Safety Program conducted during 1991 by the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas. This laboratory operates an environmental radiation monitoring program in the region surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at former test sites in Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Mexico. The surveillance program is designed to measure levels and trends of radioactivity, if present, in the environment surrounding testing areas to ascertain whether current radiation levels and associated doses to the general public are in compliance with existing radiation protection standards. The surveillance program additionally has the responsibility to take action to protect the health and well being of the public in the event of any accidental release of radioactive contaminants. Offsite levels of radiation and radioactivity are assessed by sampling milk, water, and air; by deploying thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and using pressurized ion chambers (PICs); and by biological monitoring of animals, food crops, and humans. Personnel with mobile monitoring equipment are placed in areas downwind from the test site prior to each nuclear weapons test to implement protective actions, provide immediate radiation monitoring, and obtain environmental samples rapidly after any occurrence of radioactivity release. Comparison of the measurements and sample analysis results with background levels and with appropriate standards and regulations indicated that there was no radioactivity detected offsite by the various EPA monitoring networks and no exposure above natural background to the population living in the vicinity of the NTS that could be attributed to current NTS activities. Annual and long-term trends were evaluated in the Noble Gas, Tritium, Milk Surveillance, Biomonitoring, TLD, PIC networks, and the Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Program

  3. Trending and accuracy of noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring in pediatric perioperative patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Mario; Schultz, Lindsay; Hossain, Monir; Moeller, Jennifer; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Gunter, Joel; Kurth, C Dean

    2014-10-01

    Rainbow Pulse CO-Oximetry technology (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) provides continuous and noninvasive measurement of arterial hemoglobin concentration (SpHb). We assessed the trending and accuracy of SpHb by this innovative monitoring compared with Hb concentration obtained with conventional laboratory techniques (Hb) in children undergoing surgical procedures with potential for substantial blood loss. Hb concentrations were recorded from Pulse CO-Oximetry and a conventional hematology analyzer. Regression analysis and 4-quadrant plot were used to evaluate the trending for changes in SpHb and Hb measurements (ΔSpHb and ΔHb). Bias, precision, and limits of agreement of SpHb and of in vivo adjusted SpHb (SpHb - first bias to HB) compared with Hb were calculated. One hundred fifty-eight SpHb-Hb data pairs and 105 delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) from 46 patients aged 2 months to 17 years with Hb ranging from 16.7 to 7.9 g/dL were collected. To evaluate trending, the delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) were plotted, which revealed a positive correlation (ΔSpHb = 0.022 + 0.76ΔHb) with correlation coefficient r = 0.76, 95% CI [confidence interval] = 0.57-0.86. The bias and precision of SpHb to Hb and in vivo adjusted SpHb were 0.4 ± 1.3 g/dL and 0.1 ± 1.2 g/dL, respectively; the limits of agreement were -2.0 to 3.2 g/dL before in vivo adjustment and -2.4 to 2.2 g/dL after in vivo adjustment (P value = 0.04). The mean percent bias (from the reference Hb concentration) decreased from 4.1% ± 11.9% to 0.7% ± 11.3% (P value = 0.01). No drift in bias over time was observed during the study procedure. Of patient demographic and physiological factors tested for correlation with the SpHb, only perfusion index at sensor site showed a weak correlation. The accuracy of SpHb in children with normal Hb and mild anemia is similar to that previously reported in adults and is independent of patient demographic and physiological states except for a weak correlation with perfusion index

  4. Institutional point-of-care glucometer identifies population trends in blood glucose associated with war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boaz, Mona; Matas, Zipora; Chaimy, Tova; Landau, Zohar; Bar Dayan, Yosefa; Berlovitz, Yitzhak; Wainstein, Julio

    2013-11-01

    Acute physiological stress has been shown to impair glucose homeostasis. War is a period of acute psychological stress, and its effect on glucose control is unknown. In this study random point-of-care (POC) glucose levels were measured using an automated, institutional glucometer in hospitalized adult patients prior to versus during the Israeli Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012). Random POC glucose values measured with the institutional blood glucose monitoring system were obtained 1 week prior to the Pillar of Defense campaign (November 7-10, 2012) and compared with values to those obtained during the first 4 days of the war (November 14-17, 2012). In total, 3,573 POC glucose measures were included: 1,865 during the pre-war period and 1,708 during the campaign. POC glucose measures were significantly higher during the war compared with the week preceding the war: 9.7±4.7 versus 9.3±4.2 mmol/L (P=0.02). In a general linear model, period (pre-war vs. during war) persisted as a significant predictor of POC glucose even after controlling for age, sex, and department type (internal medicine vs. surgical). Acute stress, such as a wartime situation, is associated with a significant increase in random blood glucose values in a population of hospitalized adults. Long-term follow-up of the individuals hospitalized during these two periods can reveal differences in morbidity and mortality trends.

  5. Women, population and development trends since 1984.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, H

    1989-01-01

    This paper review progress over the past 5 years with respect to the 6 recommendations adopted at the International Conference on Population 1984, which specifically address the situation of women. They include: 1) integrating women into development, 2) women's economic participation, 3) education, training, and employment, 4) raising the age at marriage, 5) the active involvement of men in all areas of family responsibility, and 6) the ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Several important areas potentially relevant to population issues which were omitted from the Conference recommendations are identified and discussed--namely, the situation of women (in particular, older women, women who are the sole supporters of families, and women and migration) and the situation of women in times of severe economic adversity. Finally, progress made with respect to data on women is highlighted, and caution is advised with respect to continued calls for new data. In contrast to the Nairobi Forward-Looking Strategies for the Advancement of Women, the recommendations are noted for implying an almost unresolvable conflict between women's biological and economic roles. However, it is pointed out that the goals of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women for full equality of men and women would require that the same choices be available to both sexes with respect to labor force participation. While it is too soon to have a clear perspective on the pace and direction of change during the past 5 years, the author finds it impossible to be optimistic about current trends because, in too many areas, progress regarding women has either stagnated or moved into reverse gear. The disappointing record is partially attributed to the tendency for policy makers to see the promotion of economic growth through sound economic policy and advancing the status of women as competing rather than

  6. Recommendations for monitoring avian populations with point counts: a case study in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vagner Cavarzere

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the northern hemisphere, bird counts have been fundamental in gathering data to understand population trends. Due to the seasonality of the northern hemisphere, counts take place during two clearly defined moments in time: the breeding season (resident birds and winter (after migration. Depending on location, Neotropical birds may breed at any time of year, may or may not migrate, and those patterns are not necessarily synchronous among species. Also in contrast to the northern hemisphere, population trends and the impact of rapid urbanization and deforestation are unknown and unmonitored. Throughout one year, we used point counts to better understand temporal patterns of bird species richness and relative abundance in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, to examine how to implement similar bird counts in tropical America. We counted birds twice each day on 10 point transects (20 points day‑1, separated by 200 m, with a 100 m limited detection radius in a semideciduous tropical forest. Both species richness and bird abundance were greater in the morning, but accumulation curves suggest that longer-duration afternoon counts would reach the same total species as in morning counts. Species richness and bird abundance did not vary seasonally and unique species were counted every month; relatively few species (20% were present in all months. Most (84% known forest species in the area were encountered. We suggest that point counts can work here as they do in the northern hemisphere. We recommend that transects include at least 20 points and that the simplest timing of bird counts would also be seasonal, using timing of migration of austral migrants (and six months later to coordinate counts. We propose that bird counts in Brazil, and elsewhere in Latin America, would provide data to help understand population trends, but would require greater effort than in temperate latitudes due to greater species richness and different dynamics of

  7. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  8. Medical And Genetic Monitoring of Population Around Semipalatinsk Test-site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kayupova, N.A.; Svyatova, G.S.; Abildinova, G.Zh.

    1998-01-01

    Up to present, there is no one positive opinion about the effect of a small amount of ionizing radiation doses on the genetic system of a human being. In connection with it, the all-round medical and genetic researches conducted by a united methodical basis and intended to study general mutagen and teratogen radiation effects are of a certain significance. With that end in view, the medical and genetic testing of a number of rural population around Semipalatinsk test-site (STS) was conducted. The all-round methods of medical and genetic consequences evaluation were developed, and 'active revealing of the congenital fetation disease (CFD)' method was submitted for consideration. Aside from analysis of the general genetic and demographic data, outcomes of more than 160.000 confinements were studied, and a high frequency rate of the CFD of 'the strict recording' (6.11 per 1000 new-born children in areas of extreme radiation hazard) was discovered, that surely exceeded the similar index for the monitored areas (2.92 per 1000 new-born children). A higher frequency rate of the Down's syndrome and numerous CFD (1.66 and 1.07 per 1000 new-born children accordingly) were revealed as well. As a result of the cytogenetic monitoring of the tested population, it was ascertained that a total frequency rate of the aberrant cell emergence was equal to 4.9 per 100 cells, that is 3.9 times as much than the similar index for the monitored area. A high frequency rate of the markers induced by radiation was discovered, which proved the increased mutagen effect of the environment. Biological presentation of the radiation effect on population was conducted in two methods of the biological monitoring, and according to the frequency rate of the chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes of peripheral blood, that are induced by radiation, and electro paramagnetic resonance of teeth enamel (Kazakhstan national Nuclear Center). The results of the medical and genetic research conducted were an

  9. Development and evaluation of a new method for sampling and monitoring the symphylid population in pineapple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soler, Alain; Gaude, Jean-Marie; Marie-Alphonsine, Paul-Alex; Vinatier, Fabrice; Dole, Bernard; Govindin, Jean-Claude; Fournier, Patrick; Queneherve, Patrick

    2011-09-01

    Symphylids (Hanseniella sp.) are polyphagous soilborne parasites. Today, symphylid populations on pineapple are monitored by observing root symptoms and the presence of symphylids at the bottom of basal leaves. The authors developed a reliable method with a bait and trap device to monitor symphylid populations in pineapple or fallow crops. The spatial distribution of the symphylid populations was evaluated using the variance/mean ratios and spatial analyses based on Moran's and Geary's indices. The method has been tested to monitor symphylid populations at different developmental stages of pineapple. Adding potato baits to the soil samples increased the trapping efficiency of symphylids when compared with 'soil only' and 'bait only' methods. The handling of the samples is also facilitated by the new device. Results showed that the vertical distribution of symphylids may be uniform deeply inside the soil profile under pineapple, up to 50 cm. Results showed that symphylid populations are highly aggregated, showing a spot area about 4-6 m wide for their development. The new method allows better and easier evaluation of symphylid populations. It may be very useful in the evaluation of new IPM methods to control symphylids under pineapple. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Philip A; Mason, Lucy R; Green, Rhys E; Gregory, Richard D; Sauer, John R; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H M; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud P B; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiri; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco J; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  11. Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anfodillo T

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

  12. Spatial scan statistics to assess sampling strategy of antimicrobial resistance monitoring programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vieira, Antonio; Houe, Hans; Wegener, Henrik Caspar

    2009-01-01

    Pie collection and analysis of data on antimicrobial resistance in human and animal Populations are important for establishing a baseline of the occurrence of resistance and for determining trends over time. In animals, targeted monitoring with a stratified sampling plan is normally used. However...... sampled by the Danish Integrated Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring and Research Programme (DANMAP), by identifying spatial Clusters of samples and detecting areas with significantly high or low sampling rates. These analyses were performed for each year and for the total 5-year study period for all...... by an antimicrobial monitoring program....

  13. Evaluating and improving count-based population inference: A case study from 31 years of monitoring Sandhill Cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2017-01-01

    Monitoring animal populations can be difficult. Limited resources often force monitoring programs to rely on unadjusted or smoothed counts as an index of abundance. Smoothing counts is commonly done using a moving-average estimator to dampen sampling variation. These indices are commonly used to inform management decisions, although their reliability is often unknown. We outline a process to evaluate the biological plausibility of annual changes in population counts and indices from a typical monitoring scenario and compare results with a hierarchical Bayesian time series (HBTS) model. We evaluated spring and fall counts, fall indices, and model-based predictions for the Rocky Mountain population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes (Antigone canadensis) by integrating juvenile recruitment, harvest, and survival into a stochastic stage-based population model. We used simulation to evaluate population indices from the HBTS model and the commonly used 3-yr moving average estimator. We found counts of the RMP to exhibit biologically unrealistic annual change, while the fall population index was largely biologically realistic. HBTS model predictions suggested that the RMP changed little over 31 yr of monitoring, but the pattern depended on assumptions about the observational process. The HBTS model fall population predictions were biologically plausible if observed crane harvest mortality was compensatory up to natural mortality, as empirical evidence suggests. Simulations indicated that the predicted mean of the HBTS model was generally a more reliable estimate of the true population than population indices derived using a moving 3-yr average estimator. Practitioners could gain considerable advantages from modeling population counts using a hierarchical Bayesian autoregressive approach. Advantages would include: (1) obtaining measures of uncertainty; (2) incorporating direct knowledge of the observational and population processes; (3) accommodating missing years of data; and (4

  14. Current state and trends of access to sanitation in Ethiopia and the need to revise indicators to monitor progress in the Post-2015 era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Abebe; Hailu, Tamene; Faris, Kebede; Kloos, Helmut

    2015-05-02

    Investigating the current level and trends of access and identifying the underlying challenges to sanitation system development will be useful in determining directions developing countries are heading as they plan to promote sustainable development goals (post 2015 agenda). This research investigates the status and trends of access to improved sanitation coverage (ISC) in relation to the MDG target in Ethiopia with the aim of identifying prevailing constraints and suggesting the way forward in the post-MDG era. We examined data from a nationwide inventory conducted in accordance with the sanitation ladder at the national level and from a household survey in randomly selected urban slums in Addis Ababa. The inventory data were analyzed and interpreted using the conceptual model of the sanitation ladder. We used administrative reports and survey results to plot the time trend of the ISC. The data from the nationwide inventory of sanitation facilities, which are presented along the sanitation ladder reveal that more than half of the Ethiopian population (52.1%) still used unimproved sanitation facilities in 2014. The majority (35.6%) practiced open defecation, implying that the country is far from the MDG target for access to improved sanitation (56%). Most people in urban slums (88.6%) used unimproved sanitation facilities, indicating that the urban poor did not receive adequate sanitation services. Trend analysis shows that access to ISC has increased, but Central Statistical Authority (CSA) data reveal a decline. This discrepancy is due to differences in data collection methods and tools. Dry pit latrines are the most widely used toilet facilities in Ethiopia, accounting for about 97.5% of the ISC. The sanitation coverage is far from the MDG target and the majority of the population, mainly the urban poor, are living in a polluted environment, exposed to water and sanitation-related diseases. The sanitation coverage estimates might be even lower if proper

  15. The trends in total energy, macronutrients and sodium intake among Japanese: findings from the 1995-2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Aki; Imai, Shino; Htun, Nay Chi; Okada, Emiko; Yoshita, Katsushi; Yoshiike, Nobuo; Takimoto, Hidemi

    2018-06-04

    Monitoring nutritional status of the population is essential in the development and evaluation of national or local health policies. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate analysis on the trends in dietary intake of energy and macronutrients, as well as Na, in Japanese population using the data of series of cross-sectional national surveys - the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the National Health Nutrition Survey (NHNS) - during the period from 1995 to 2016. The NNS and NHNS participants aged 20-79 years were included in the analysis. Dietary intake was estimated using 1-d household-based dietary record. The trend in total energy intake, energy intake from macronutrients (fat and protein), Na intake and energy-adjusted Na intake were analysed using regression models adjusted to 2010 age distribution and anthropometry status. A total of 94 270 men and 107 890 women were included the analysis. Total energy intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. Similarly, energy intake from protein decreased, but energy intake (%) from fat increased in both sexes. Energy-adjusted Na intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. This study identified the decrease in total energy intake and energy intake from protein, whereas there were inverse trends in energy intake from fat among Japanese adults. Continued monitoring of trends in dietary intake will be needed, and there should be efforts to increase the accuracy of current survey procedures.

  16. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  17. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  18. Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pere P Simarro

    Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

  19. Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Population trends of Goričko agricultural landscape birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denac Katarina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to numerous bird surveys in the past 20 years, the avifauna of Goričko is relatively well known. For some species, the very first national ecological researches were conducted in this area. The article summarizes all bird surveys so far. It presents population trends of farmland species which is one of the most threatened bird groups in Europe. Most of the qualifying species of this habitat that are protected within the Natura 2000 network have suffered a decline at Goričko, specifically Quail Coturnix coturnix, Scops Owl Otus scops, Hoopoe Upupa epops, Woodlark Lullula arborea and White Stork Ciconia ciconia. The number of breeding pairs of the latter has not changed, but its fecundity has decreased. Furthermore, populations of other farmland bird species have decreased, for example Skylark Alauda arvensis, Stonechat Saxicola rubicola, Serin Serinus serinus and Common Linnet Linaria cannabina, as well as butterfly populations and tracts of grassland habitat types. National agricultural and nature conservation policies are evidently inefficient in protecting the biodiversity of Goričko. The most probable cause for bird population decline is agricultural intensification, which manifests itself at Goričko as disappearance and intensification of meadows, land consolidation, degradation of traditional orchards and use of pesticides. As a result of land consolidation hedges, uncultivated strips between fields, individual trees and bushes and minority habitat types are disappearing, whereas the surface of arable fields is increasing. Nature conservation measures performed by the Public Institute Goričko Nature Park with the support of DOPPS – BirdLife Slovenia volunteers seem to be efficient, but are spatially and temporally constrained. For this reason, they cannot serve as a substitute for insufficient systemic financing which could be improved by substantive and financial reform of the agri-environmental scheme. Currently, a negligible

  1. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez, Francesca C.; Benson, Jody; Hanson, Stephanie; Mark, Carol; Wetovsky, Marvin A.

    2004-01-01

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  2. Proceedings of the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Francesca C [Editor; Benson, Jody [Editor; Hanson, Stephanie [Editor; Mark, Carol [Editor; Wetovsky, Marvin A [Editor

    2004-09-21

    These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 26th Seismic Research Review: Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring, held 21-23 September, 2004 in Orlando, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

  3. Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia J Lagueux

    Full Text Available This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs. More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i an increase in reproductive output, ii insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population

  4. Conservation and monitoring of a persecuted African lion population by Maasai warriors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolrenry, Stephanie; Hazzah, Leela; Frank, Laurence G

    2016-06-01

    Although Africa has many threatened species and biological hot spots, there are few citizen science schemes, particularly in rural communities, and there has been limited evaluation of existing programs. We engaged traditional Maasai warriors (pastoralist men aged 15 to 35) in community-based conservation and demographic monitoring of a persecuted African lion (Panthera leo) population. Through direct engagement, we investigated whether a citizen science approach employing local warriors, who had no formal education, could produce reliable data on the demographics, predation, and movements of a species with which their communities have been in conflict for generations. Warriors were given benefits such as literacy training and skill enhancement and engaged in the monitoring of the lions. The trained warriors reported on lion sign across an area nearly 4000 km(2) . Scientists worked together with the warriors to verify their reports and gather observations on the lion population. Using the verified reports and collected observations, we examined our scientific knowledge relative to the lion population preceding and during the citizen science program. Our observations showed that data quality and quantity improved with the involvement and training of the participants. Furthermore, because they engaged in conservation and gained personal benefits, the participants came to appreciate a species that was traditionally their foe. We believe engaging other local communities in biodiversity conservation and monitoring may be an effective conservation approach in rural Africa. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Demographic Trends of Adults in New York City Opioid Treatment Programs--An Aging Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Benjamin; Polydorou, Soteri; Ferris, Rosie; Blaum, Caroline S; Ross, Stephen; McNeely, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    The population of adults accessing opioid treatment is growing older, but exact estimates vary widely, and little is known about the characteristics of the aging treatment population. Further, there has been little research regarding the epidemiology, healt h status, and functional impairments in this population. To determine the utilization of opioid treatment services by older adults in New York City. This study used administrative data from New York State licensed drug treatment programs to examine overall age trends and characteristics of older adults in opioid treatment programs in New York City from 1996 to 2012. We found significant increases in utilization of opioid treatment programs by older adults in New York City. By 2012, those aged 50-59 made up the largest age group in opioid treatment programs. Among older adults there were notable shifts in demographic background including gender and ethnicity, and an increase in self-reported impairments. More research is needed to fully understand the specific characteristics and needs of older adults with opioid dependence.

  6. Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

    2017-11-01

    The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. A review of the methods for monitoring roe deer European populations with particular reference to Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Meriggi

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Throughout the last century, deer populations have shown a remarkable increase both in North America and Europe. As a consequence, the estimate of roe deer density has become a matter of interest. We reviewed the available literature on the methods used for monitoring roe deer populations in Europe from 1950 to 2004, with the aim of detecting the trend of papers and distribution of census techniques by years, countries and habitat types. Particular attention was paid to the census and monitoring methods adopted in Italy and Tuscany, which is the region where the roe deer is more carefully managed. Published papers showed an increasing trend, as did the number of methods used and their complexity. France, Italy, UK and Spain were the countries with the richest literature and the largest variety of methods applied. Eleven census methods have been applied in woods - particularly line transects, pellet group counts, CMR and IKA - with only 6 in open country, mainly pellet group counts. In Europe vantage points are more commonly used for planning culling programs, whilst in Italy, and particularly in Tuscany, the drive census and spotlight counts are mainly used. Unfortunately, in Europe, harvesting programs are still too much based on hunter knowledge and traditions. However the countries where the management of roe deer hunting is of more recent tradition make an exception to this rule. In Italy and Tuscany the methods of monitoring roe deer populations should be improved towards less expensive and more accurate methods. Riassunto Revisione dei metodi di monitoraggio delle popolazioni di capriolo in Europa con particolare riferimento all'Italia Le popolazioni di Cervidi hanno avuto nell'ultimo secolo un notevole incremento sia in America settentrionale, sia in Europa. Di conseguenza la densità delle popolazioni di capriolo è diventata oggetto di interessi diversi e la sua stima

  8. Characteristics and trends on global environmental monitoring research: a bibliometric analysis based on Science Citation Index Expanded.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Di; Fu, Hui-Zhen; Ho, Yuh-Shan

    2017-11-01

    A bibliometric analysis based on the Science Citation Index Expanded from Web of Science was carried out to provide insights into research activities and trends of the environmental monitoring from 1993 to 2012. Study emphases covered publication outputs, language, categories, journals, countries/territories, institutions, words, and hot issues. The results indicated that the annual output of environmental monitoring publications increased steadily. The environmental sciences and analytical chemistry were the two most common categories. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment published the most articles. The USA and the UK ranked in the top two in terms of all five indicators. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took the leading position of the institutions in terms of publication output. The synthesized analysis by words in title, author keywords, and KeyWords Plus provided important clues for hot issues. Researchers paid more attention on water environment monitoring than other environmental factors. The contaminants including organic contaminants, heavy metal, and radiation were most common research focuses, and the organic contaminants and heavy metal of the degree of concern were gradually rising. Sensor and biosensor played an important role in the field of environmental monitoring devices. In addition to conventional device detection method, the remote sensing, GIS, and wireless sensor networks were the mainstream environmental monitoring methods. The international organization, social awareness, and the countries' positive and effective political and policies promoted the published articles.

  9. Offsite environmental monitoring report: Radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaloud, D.J.; Dicey, B.B.; Mullen, A.A.; Neale, A.C.; Sparks, A.R.; Fontana, C.A.; Carroll, L.D.; Phillips, W.G.; Smith, D.D.; Thome, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This report describes the Offsite Radiation Safety Program conducted during 1991 by the Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA`s) Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas. This laboratory operates an environmental radiation monitoring program in the region surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at former test sites in Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Mexico. The surveillance program is designed to measure levels and trends of radioactivity, if present, in the environment surrounding testing areas to ascertain whether current radiation levels and associated doses to the general public are in compliance with existing radiation protection standards. The surveillance program additionally has the responsibility to take action to protect the health and well being of the public in the event of any accidental release of radioactive contaminants. Offsite levels of radiation and radioactivity are assessed by sampling milk, water, and air; by deploying thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and using pressurized ion chambers (PICs); and by biological monitoring of animals, food crops, and humans. Personnel with mobile monitoring equipment are placed in areas downwind from the test site prior to each nuclear weapons test to implement protective actions, provide immediate radiation monitoring, and obtain environmental samples rapidly after any occurrence of radioactivity release. Comparison of the measurements and sample analysis results with background levels and with appropriate standards and regulations indicated that there was no radioactivity detected offsite by the various EPA monitoring networks and no exposure above natural background to the population living in the vicinity of the NTS that could be attributed to current NTS activities. Annual and long-term trends were evaluated in the Noble Gas, Tritium, Milk Surveillance, Biomonitoring, TLD, PIC networks, and the Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Program.

  10. The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, J.; Andres, B.; Brown, S.; Donaldson, G.; Harrington, B.; Johnston, V.; Jones, S.; Morrison, R.I.G.; Skagen, S.K.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). PRISM is being implemented by a Canada-United States Shorebird Monitoring and Assessment Committee formed in 2001 by the Canadian Shorebird Working Group and the U.S. Shorebird Council. PRISM provides a single blueprint for implementing the shorebird conservation plans recently completed in Canada and the United States. The goals of PRISM are to (1) estimate the size of breeding population of 74 shorebird taxa in North America; (2) describe the distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships for each of these taxa; (3) monitor trends in shorebird population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at stopover locations, and; (5) assist local managers in meeting their shorebird conservation goals. PRISM has four main components: arctic and boreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding surveys, temperate non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys. Progress on, and action items for, each major component are described. The more important major tasks for immediate action are carrying out the northern surveys, conducting regional analyses to design the program of migration counts, and evaluating aerial photographic surveys for migration and winter counts.

  11. Twenty-year trends in benzodiazepine dispensing in the Australian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M M; Conigrave, K M; Day, C A; Nguyen, Y; Haber, P S

    2014-01-01

    Considerable concern has been expressed about overprescribing of benzodiazepines and related harms. Past analyses have relied on World Health Organization-defined daily doses (DDD) which are sometimes out of keeping with clinical usage. This study examines 20-year (1992-2011) trends of benzodiazepine dispensing in Australia using both DDD and Ashton equivalent dose. Data from the Drug Utilisation Sub-Committee and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) website were analysed. Trends in number of prescriptions, DDD/1000 people/day and DDD/prescription were examined over time, and between states/territories. In the 20-year period, 174 080 904 scripts were recorded, with temazepam the most dispensed benzodiazepine (35% of scripts), followed by diazepam (23%). Overall recorded utilisation fell from 27.7 DDD/1000 people/day in 1992 to 20.8 in 2011 (24.9% decrease). There were striking changes in use of individual benzodiazepines over time, with reductions in oxazepam and flunitrazepam and dramatic increases in alprazolam. Since 1998, there has been a steady increase, albeit modest, in per script DDD. The DDD/1000 people/day for items dispensed through PBS/Repatriaton-PBS was highest in Tasmania and lowest in Northern Territory. Despite a modest overall decline in the amount of benzodiazepine dispensed, the level of use is still likely to reflect relative over-prescribing given the paucity of accepted indications for long-term use. Since 1998, there was a polynomial increase in quantity dispensed per script. The WHO-defined DDD for clonazepam seems inappropriate and could impede monitoring of its abuse. Other problems include lack of national data for medications not subsidised on PBS/Repatriation PBS. A broad policy approach is required, not one which targets only one particular benzodiazepine. © 2013 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  12. Monitoring the southwestern Wyoming landscape—A foundation for management and science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manier, Daniel J.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Assal, Timothy J.; Chong, Geneva W.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2017-08-29

    Natural resource monitoring involves repeated collections of resource condition data and analyses to detect possible changes and identify underlying causes of changes. For natural resource agencies, monitoring provides the foundation for management and science. Specifically, analyses of monitoring data allow managers to better understand effects of land-use and other changes on important natural resources and to achieve their conservation and management goals. Examples of natural resources monitored on public lands include wildlife habitats, plant productivity, animal movements and population trends, soil chemistry, and water quality and quantity. Broader definitions of monitoring also recognize the need for scientifically valid data to help support planning efforts and informed decisions, to develop adaptive management strategies, and to provide the means for evaluating management outcomes.

  13. National Differences in Trends for Heart Failure Hospitalizations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaeian, Boback; Kominski, Gerald F; Ong, Michael K; Mays, Vickie M; Brook, Robert H; Fonarow, Gregg C

    2017-07-01

    National heart failure (HF) hospitalization rates have not been appropriately age standardized by sex or race/ethnicity. Reporting hospital utilization trends by subgroup is important for monitoring population health and developing interventions to eliminate disparities. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to estimate the crude and age-standardized rates of HF hospitalization between 2002 and 2013 by sex and race/ethnicity. Direct standardization was used to age-standardize rates to the 2000 US standard population. Relative differences between subgroups were reported. The national age-adjusted HF hospitalization rate decreased 30.8% from 526.86 to 364.66 per 100 000 between 2002 and 2013. Although hospitalizations decreased for all subgroups, the ratio of the age-standardized rate for men compared with women increased from 20% greater to 39% ( P trend=0.002) between 2002 and 2013. Black men had a rate that was 229% ( P trend=0.141) and black women, 240% ( P trend=0.725) with reference to whites in 2013 with no significant change between 2002 and 2013. Hispanic men had a rate that was 32% greater in 2002 and the difference narrowed to 4% ( P trend=0.047) greater in 2013 relative to whites. For Hispanic women, the rate was 55% greater in 2002 and narrowed to 8% greater ( P trend=0.004) in 2013 relative to whites. Asian/Pacific Islander men had a 27% lower rate in 2002 that improved to 43% ( P trend=0.040) lower in 2013 relative to whites. For Asian/Pacific Islander women, the hospitalization rate was 24% lower in 2002 and improved to 43% ( P trend=0.021) lower in 2013 relative to whites. National HF hospitalization rates have decreased steadily during the recent decade. Disparities in HF burden and hospital utilization by sex and race/ethnicity persist. Significant population health interventions are needed to reduce the HF hospitalization burden among blacks. An evaluation of factors explaining the improvements in the HF hospitalization rates among

  14. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  15. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig S. Machtans

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

  16. Sample size for monitoring sirex populations and their natural enemies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susete do Rocio Chiarello Penteado

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The woodwasp Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae was introduced in Brazil in 1988 and became the main pest in pine plantations. It has spread to about 1.000.000 ha, at different population levels, in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Control is done mainly by using a nematode, Deladenus siricidicola Bedding (Nematoda: Neothylenchidae. The evaluation of the efficiency of natural enemies has been difficult because there are no appropriate sampling systems. This study tested a hierarchical sampling system to define the sample size to monitor the S. noctilio population and the efficiency of their natural enemies, which was found to be perfectly adequate.

  17. Recent trends in monitoring radon and daughter products in Indian uranium mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, A.H.; Raghavayya, M.

    1977-01-01

    Uranium mining is of comparatively recent origin in India. In keeping with the ICRP (1959) and IAEA (1967) recommendations on the subject, the radiation practice in this country has been to monitor the mine air for radon. But the fact that radon daughter products are responsible for a major contribution to the radiation dose to the lungs and the comparative ease of correlating incidence of lung cancer with cumulative exposure to radon daughters (WLM), as demonstrated by epidemiologists, cannot be lost sight of. The results of a series of simultaneous measurements of radon, its decay products and their unattached fractions are presented. These measurements of radon have been carried out under different operational and passive conditions in mines. It has been observed that in the mine air, not only RaA but significant fractions of RaB and RaC too, exist in 'free state'. Wide variations have been observed in the unattached fractions with median values around 6% for RaA, 3% for RaB and 1% for RaC. The unattached daughter activities in the return air are maximum under passive conditions and show declining trend as the mining operations assume momentum causing increase in the aerosol concentrations. Relative merits of monitoring the mine air for radon and/or its decay products are also discussed

  18. Population trends in Malaysia: 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Saharani Abdul; Ghani, Puzziawati Ab; Daud, Noorizam

    2014-12-01

    The size of population in Malaysia had reached 28.3 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 38.6 million in the next 30 years. This demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This paper looks at the last 40 years of changes in Malaysia population structure due to the changes in demographic phenomenon using data obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. The principal finding of this research indicates that population structure in Malaysia had changed dramatically from the year 1970 to 2010. At the same time, Malaysia has completed its demographic transition in less than four decades. The fall in fertility and mortality rates have led to an improvement in the life expectancy of the population which has resulted an ageing population in Malaysia.

  19. Monitoring the impact of trade agreements on national food environments: trade imports and population nutrition risks in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravuvu, Amerita; Friel, Sharon; Thow, Anne-Marie; Snowdon, Wendy; Wate, Jillian

    2017-06-13

    Trade agreements are increasingly recognised as playing an influential role in shaping national food environments and the availability and nutritional quality of the food supply. Global monitoring of food environments and trade policies can strengthen the evidence base for the impact of trade policy on nutrition, and support improved policy coherence. Using the INFORMAS trade monitoring protocol, we reviewed available food supply data to understand associations between Fiji's commitments under WTO trade agreements and food import volume trends. First, a desk review was conducted to map and record in one place Fiji's commitments to relevant existing trade agreements that have implications for Fiji's national food environment under the domains of the INFORMAS trade monitoring protocol. An excel database was developed to document the agreements and their provisions. The second aspect of the research focused on data extraction. We began with identifying food import volumes into Fiji by country of origin, with a particular focus on a select number of 'healthy and unhealthy' foods. We also developed a detailed listing of transnational food corporations currently operating in Fiji. The study suggests that Fiji's WTO membership, in conjunction with associated economic and agricultural policy changes have contributed to increased availability of both healthy and less healthy imported foods. In systematically monitoring the import volume trends of these two categories of food, the study highlights an increase in healthy foods such as fresh fruits and vegetables and whole-grain refined cereals. The study also shows that there has been an increase in less healthy foods including fats and oils; meat; processed dairy products; energy-dense beverages; and processed and packaged foods. By monitoring the trends of imported foods at country level from the perspective of trade agreements, we are able to develop appropriate and targeted interventions to improve diets and health. This

  20. Annual environmental monitoring report of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleimer, G.E.

    1989-06-01

    The Environmental Monitoring Program of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is described. Data for 1988 are presented and general trends are discussed. In order to establish whether LBL research activities produced any impact on the population surrounding the laboratory, a program of environmental air and water sampling and continuous radiation monitoring was carried on throughout the year. For 1988, as in the previous several years, dose equivalents attributable to LBL radiological operations were a small fraction of both the relevant radiation protection guidelines (RPG) and of the natural radiation background. 16 refs., 7 figs., 21 tabs

  1. Annual environmental monitoring report of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schleimer, G.E. (ed.)

    1989-06-01

    The Environmental Monitoring Program of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is described. Data for 1988 are presented and general trends are discussed. In order to establish whether LBL research activities produced any impact on the population surrounding the laboratory, a program of environmental air and water sampling and continuous radiation monitoring was carried on throughout the year. For 1988, as in the previous several years, dose equivalents attributable to LBL radiological operations were a small fraction of both the relevant radiation protection guidelines (RPG) and of the natural radiation background. 16 refs., 7 figs., 21 tabs.

  2. Evaluation and prioritization of stream habitat monitoring in the Lower Columbia Salmon and Steelhead Recovery Domain as related to the habitat monitoring needs of ESA recovery plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puls, Amy L.; Anlauf Dunn, Kara; Graham Hudson, Bernadette

    2014-01-01

    The lower Columbia River and its tributaries once supported abundant runs of salmon and steelhead; however, there are five species currently listed under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). The National Marine Fisheries Service has completed, and is proposing for adoption, a comprehensive ESA Recovery Plan for the Lower Columbia Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) based on the recovery plans developed by Oregon and Washington. One of the primary factors attributed to the decline of these species is habitat degradation. There are numerous entities conducting status and/or trends monitoring of instream habitat in the lower Columbia River Basin, but because the programs were developed for agency specific reasons, the existing monitoring efforts are not well coordinated, and often lack the spatial coverage, certainty, or species coverage necessary to answer questions related to status and trends of the ESA listed populations. The Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership’s Integrated Status and Trends Monitoring (ISTM) project was initiated to improve integration of existing and new monitoring efforts by developing recommendations for sampling frames, protocols, and data sharing. In an effort to meet the ISTM project goals, five objectives were identified: (1) identify and prioritize decisions, questions, and monitoring objectives, (2) evaluate how existing programs align with these management decisions, questions, and objectives, (3) identify the most appropriate monitoring design to inform priority management decisions, questions, and objectives, (4) use trade-off analysis to develop specific recommendations for monitoring based on outcomes of Objectives 1-3 and (5) recommend implementation and reporting mechanisms. This report summarizes the effort to address Objectives 1 and 2, detailing the commonalities among the habitat characteristics that all entities measure and monitor, and how the metrics align with the priorities listed in the

  3. Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

    2012-08-01

    Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

  4. Fifty-year trends in a box turtle population in Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, R.J.; Henry, P.F.P.; Bunck, C.M.

    1999-01-01

    A survey conducted in 1995 investigated long term declines reported in a population of box turtles Terrapene Carolina monitored each decade since 1945 in bottomland hardwood forest at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Maryland. Methods duplicated past surveys in most respects, but were supplemented by radiotelemetry and a survey of dominant vegetation. Seventy different turtles were found on the 11.8 ha study area, a decline of >75% since peak populations were recorded in 1955. Searchers were less efficient in 1995 than in 1945-1975 for a variety of possible reasons. Among turtles recorded, approximately equal numbers persisted from each of the past five decades, with some individuals surviving >70 years. A sex ratio strongly favoring males was first recorded in 1975 and continued in 1995, but juveniles and subadults were found in greater proportion in 1995 than in any other survey. Six of nine radio-marked turtles left the bottomland study area and migrated to the adjoining bluffs to hibernate, suggesting more extensive movements and perhaps less stable home ranges than formerly thought. Age structure of trees indicated a gradual change to more shade-tolerant species. Examination of rates of change from survey data suggested that major losses probably resulted from changes in hydrology that exacerbated flooding in 1972, with recovery only beginning in 1995 and perhaps limited both by repeated flood events and successional changes in the forest. Slow recovery from losses may indicate that populations of the species would respond poorly to exploitation.

  5. Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andrew; Moreno-Mardinan, Max; Ryan, John P.

    2012-01-01

    Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in

  6. Using centralized laboratory data to monitor trends in herpes simplex virus type 1 and 2 infection in British Columbia and the changing etiology of genital herpes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Mark; Li, Xuan; Petric, Martin; Krajden, Mel; Isaac-Renton, Judith L; Ogilvie, Gina; Rekart, Michael L

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the regional epidemiology of genital Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) infections is important for clinical and public health practice, due to the increasing availability of type-specific serologic testing in Canada and the contribution of genital HSV-2 infection to ongoing HIV transmission. We used centralized laboratory data to describe trends in viral identifications of genital HSV in BC and assess the utility of these data for ongoing population surveillance. Records of viral identifications (1997-2005) were extracted from the Provincial Public Health Microbiology & Reference Laboratory database. Classification as genital or other site was based on documented specimen site. We conducted a descriptive analysis of trends over time, and calculated odds of HSV-1 infection among individuals with genital herpes. Of 48,183 viral identifications, 56.8% were genital, 10.0% were peri-oral and 9.1% cutaneous; site was unknown for 22.9%. Among genital identifications, HSV-1 infection was more likely in females, younger age groups, and later time periods. The proportion of genital herpes due to HSV-1 increased over time from 31.4% to 42.8% in BC. Our analysis of population-level laboratory data demonstrates that the proportion of genital herpes due to HSV-1 is increasing over time in BC, particularly among women and younger age groups; this has implications for clinical practice including the interpretation of type-specific serology. Provincial viral identification data are useful for monitoring the distribution of genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections over time. Improving clinical documentation of specimen site would improve the utility of these data.

  7. Protocol for Monitoring Fish Assemblages in Pacific Northwest National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenkman, Samuel J.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2008-01-01

    Rivers and streams that drain from Olympic, Mount Rainier, and North Cascades National Parks are among the most protected corridors in the lower 48 States, and represent some of the largest tracts of contiguous, undisturbed habitat throughout the range of several key fish species of the Pacific Northwest. These watersheds are of high regional importance as freshwater habitat sanctuaries for native fish, where habitat conditions are characterized as having little to no disturbance from development, channelization, impervious surfaces, roads, diversions, or hydroelectric projects. Fishery resources are of high ecological and cultural importance in Pacific Northwest National Parks, and significantly contribute to economically important recreational, commercial, and tribal fisheries. This protocol describes procedures to monitor trends in fish assemblages, fish abundance, and water temperature in eight rivers and five wadeable streams in Olympic National Park during summer months, and is based on 4 years of field testing. Fish assemblages link freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems. They also serve as focal resources of national parks and are excellent indicators of ecological conditions of rivers and streams. Despite the vital importance of native anadromous and resident fish populations, there is no existing monitoring program for fish assemblages in the North Coast and Cascades Network. Specific monitoring objectives of this protocol are to determine seasonal and annual trends in: (1) fish species composition, (2) timing of migration of adult fish, (3) relative abundance, (4) age and size structure, (5) extent of non-native and hatchery fish, and (6) water temperature. To detect seasonal and annual trends in fish assemblages in reference sites, we rely on repeated and consistent annual sampling at each monitoring site. The general rationale for the repeated sampling of reference sites is to ensure that we account for the high interannual variability in fish

  8. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  9. Recommended methods for monitoring change in bird populations by counting and capture of migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. T. Hussell; C. John Ralph

    2005-01-01

    Counts and banding captures of spring or fall migrants can generate useful information on the status and trends of the source populations. To do so, the counts and captures must be taken and recorded in a standardized and consistent manner. We present recommendations for field methods for counting and capturing migrants at intensively operated sites, such as bird...

  10. Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Kurt; Happe, Patricia; Griffin, Paul C.; Beirne, Katherine; Hoffman, Roger; Baccus, William

    2011-01-01

    We conducted an aerial helicopter survey between July 18 and July 25, 2011, to estimate abundance and trends of introduced mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the Olympic Mountains. The survey was the first since we developed a sightability correction model in 2008, which provided the means to estimate the number of mountain goats present in the surveyed areas and not seen during the aerial surveys, and to adjust for undercounting biases. Additionally, the count was the first since recent telemetry studies revealed that the previously defined survey zone, which was delineated at lower elevations by the 1,520-meter elevation contour, did not encompass all lands used by mountain goats during summer. We redefined the lower elevation boundary of survey units before conducting the 2011 surveys in an effort to more accurately estimate the entire mountain goat population. We surveyed 39 survey units, comprising 39 percent of the 59,615-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 344±44 (standard error, SE) in the expanded survey area. Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 258 to 430 mountain goats at the time of the survey. To permit comparisons of mountain goat populations between the 2004 and 2011 surveys, we recomputed population estimates derived from the 2004 survey using the newly developed bias correction methods, and we computed the 2004 and 2011 surveys based on comparable survey zone definitions (for example, using the boundaries of the 2004 survey). The recomputed estimates of mountain goat populations were 217±19 (SE) in 2004 and 303±41(SE) in 2011. The difference between the current 2011 population estimate (344±44[SE]) and the recomputed 2011 estimate (303±41[SE]) reflects the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded lower elevation portions of the survey zone added in 2011. We conclude that the population of mountain goats has increased in the Olympic Mountains at

  11. Genetic monitoring of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) populations on a microgeographic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivkosic, S A; Gorman, J; Lemic, D; Mikac, K M

    2014-06-01

    Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA genetic monitoring of the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte, was undertaken in Croatia and Serbia from 1996 to 2011 and in the United States in 2011. The seven U.S. populations displayed the greatest allelic diversity. In Europe, the highest number of alleles was found in Rugvica, Croatia, and Surčin, Serbia, the two sites closest to international airports. The highest number of mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplotypes was recorded from Croatia in 1996. From 2009 to 2011, haplotype diversity declined, and Croatia and Serbia had a single fixed haplotype. U.S. continuous maize locations had one haplotype, while three haplotypes were found at crop-rotated locations. Minimal temporal genetic differentiation was found within and between populations in Europe and the United States. Bayesian cluster analysis identified two genetic clusters that grouped western corn rootworm from Croatia and Serbia separately from U.S. populations; however, these clusters were not neat, and numerous U.S. individuals had both European and U.S. ancestry, suggesting bidirectional gene flow. Bottlenecks were identified within most Croatian populations sampled in 1996, only two populations in 2009, and in all populations in 2011. Bottlenecks were not identified from Serbia from 1996 to 2011 or from the United States in 2011. As suspected Serbia was identified as the geographic source of western corn rootworm in Croatia. The temporal genetic monitoring undertaken allowed a deeper understanding of the population genetics of western corn rootworm in Croatia, neighboring Serbia, and its geographic source in the United States. The data obtained can be used to inform western corn rootworm pest management strategies in Croatia and Europe.

  12. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have.......0001). In all age and gender groups, a significant increase in intake occurred between 2002 and 2006 (all p-values

  13. Monitoring Forsmark - Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Martin [Dept of Biology, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)

    2013-03-15

    This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002 - 2012. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2012 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from 2012 generally follow patterns recorded in earlier years. 2012 was in general a better bird year compared to 2010 and 2011 and most species (82%) showed increasing or stable numbers from 2011 to 2012. Only two species (18%) decreased in numbers between the last two years. All in all, six species (55 %, black-throated diver, honey buzzard, black grouse, ural owl, wryneck and red-backed shrike) show no significant trends since the start of the bird monitoring (2002/2003/2004 depending on species). During this period three species (27 %, white-tailed eagle, osprey and lesser spotted woodpecker) have increased in numbers while just two (18 %, capercaillie and hazelhen) have decreased. A new pair of black-throated divers was discovered in 2012 and seven resident pairs were registered. Breeding success was very good, the second best during the study period. Population development follows the national pattern, but breeding success seems to be better in Forsmark than in the country as a whole. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, and breeding success for ospreys was good. No signs of successful breedings of honey buzzards were recorded, but this may mean little as no detailed monitoring of breeding success is made for this species. The white-tailed eagles had their best breeding year since the start of the SKB bird monitoring, meaning that during the last two years local breeding success has been back at the level recorded before the site investigations started. The three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) again showed somewhat varying patterns between the last two years as well as in the long run. The black grouse increased

  14. Monitoring Forsmark-Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Martin

    2013-03-01

    This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002 - 2012. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2012 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from 2012 generally follow patterns recorded in earlier years. 2012 was in general a better bird year compared to 2010 and 2011 and most species (82%) showed increasing or stable numbers from 2011 to 2012. Only two species (18%) decreased in numbers between the last two years. All in all, six species (55 %, black-throated diver, honey buzzard, black grouse, ural owl, wryneck and red-backed shrike) show no significant trends since the start of the bird monitoring (2002/2003/2004 depending on species). During this period three species (27 %, white-tailed eagle, osprey and lesser spotted woodpecker) have increased in numbers while just two (18 %, capercaillie and hazelhen) have decreased. A new pair of black-throated divers was discovered in 2012 and seven resident pairs were registered. Breeding success was very good, the second best during the study period. Population development follows the national pattern, but breeding success seems to be better in Forsmark than in the country as a whole. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, and breeding success for ospreys was good. No signs of successful breedings of honey buzzards were recorded, but this may mean little as no detailed monitoring of breeding success is made for this species. The white-tailed eagles had their best breeding year since the start of the SKB bird monitoring, meaning that during the last two years local breeding success has been back at the level recorded before the site investigations started. The three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) again showed somewhat varying patterns between the last two years as well as in the long run. The black grouse increased

  15. Trends in childhood injury mortality in South African population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Trends in major causes of injury mortality and the proportion of total deaths attributable to injuries trom 1968·to 1985 tor white, coloured and Asian children < 15 years in the RSA were examined. There were 937 injury deaths in 1968 and 853 in 1985 but no clear trends in overall mortality rates were observed. There were ...

  16. Examining the social determinants of children's developmental health: protocol for building a pan-Canadian population-based monitoring system for early childhood development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guhn, Martin; Janus, Magdalena; Enns, Jennifer; Brownell, Marni; Forer, Barry; Duku, Eric; Muhajarine, Nazeem; Raos, Rob

    2016-04-29

    Early childhood is a key period to establish policies and practices that optimise children's health and development, but Canada lacks nationally representative data on social indicators of children's well-being. To address this gap, the Early Development Instrument (EDI), a teacher-administered questionnaire completed for kindergarten-age children, has been implemented across most Canadian provinces over the past 10 years. The purpose of this protocol is to describe the Canadian Neighbourhoods and Early Child Development (CanNECD) Study, the aims of which are to create a pan-Canadian EDI database to monitor trends over time in children's developmental health and to advance research examining the social determinants of health. Canada-wide EDI records from 2004 to 2014 (representing over 700,000 children) will be linked to Canada Census and Income Taxfiler data. Variables of socioeconomic status derived from these databases will be used to predict neighbourhood-level EDI vulnerability rates by conducting a series of regression analyses and latent variable models at provincial/territorial and national levels. Where data are available, we will measure the neighbourhood-level change in developmental vulnerability rates over time and model the socioeconomic factors associated with those trends. Ethics approval for this study was granted by the Behavioural Research Ethics Board at the University of British Columbia. Study findings will be disseminated to key partners, including provincial and federal ministries, schools and school districts, collaborative community groups and the early childhood development research community. The database created as part of this longitudinal population-level monitoring system will allow researchers to associate practices, programmes and policies at school and community levels with trends in developmental health outcomes. The CanNECD Study will guide future early childhood development action and policies, using the database as a tool

  17. Establishing an air pollution monitoring network for intra-urban population exposure assessment : a location-allocation approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanaroglou, P.S. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). School of Geography and Geology; Jerrett, M.; Beckerman, B.; Arain, M.A. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). School of Geography and Geology]|[McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). McMaster Inst. of Environment and Health; Morrison, J. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). School of Computer Science; Gilbert, N.L. [Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Air Health Effects Div; Brook, J.R. [Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2004-10-01

    A study was conducted to assess the relation between traffic-generated air pollution and health reactions ranging from childhood asthma to mortality from lung cancer. In particular, it developed a formal method of optimally locating a dense network of air pollution monitoring stations in order to derive an exposure assessment model based on the data obtained from the monitoring stations and related land use, population and biophysical information. The method for determining the locations of 100 nitrogen dioxide monitors in Toronto, Ontario focused on land use, transportation infrastructure and the distribution of at-risk populations. The exposure assessment produced reasonable estimates at the intra-urban scale. This method for locating air pollution monitors effectively maximizes sampling coverage in relation to important socio-demographic characteristics and likely pollution variability. The location-allocation approach integrates many variables into the demand surface to reconfigure a monitoring network and is especially useful for measuring traffic pollutants with fine-scale spatial variability. The method also shows great promise for improving the assessment of exposure to ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. 19 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  18. Sustainable monitoring of roe deer in public hunting areas in the Spanish Pyrenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrero, J.; Torres, R. T.; Prada, C.; Garcia-Serrano, A.; Gimenez-Anaya, A.; Fernandez, O.

    2013-07-01

    Aim of study: Monitoring trends in animal populations is essential for the development of appropriate wildlife management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in the southern Pyrenees (Aragon), Spain. Material and methods: To measure the abundance, population trends, sex ratio, and mortality of roe deer populations, we analyzed data from i) driven hunts for wild boar (hunting seasons 1995/96-2009/10, n = 1,417, ii) itineraries, which were used to calculate the KAI and density using DS (2003-2010, n = 310 itineraries), iii) roe deer carcass recoveries (2006-2010, n = 100), and iv) data from the deer hunting quota fulfillment (2006-2010, n = 325 hunted animals. Main results: Based on DS, in 2010, the average density of roe deer populations was 2.3 km–2 (CV 17%). Based on the KAI and the battues, the estimated average annual rate of increase was 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Based on the KAI and the carcass recoveries, the estimates of the population sex ratio were 0.75 (n = 641) and 0.9 (n = 100) males per female, respectively. Carcass recoveries indicated that mortality was highest in late winter and early spring. The average body masses and sizes of males and females were within the ranges reported for other Iberian and European populations. Research highlights: Monitoring should be continued in the Aragon population of roe deer, although larger sample sizes are required to increase the accuracy of estimates and assessments of the impact of management actions. (Author)

  19. Monitoring requirements for detecting tidal barrage induced changes to estuary bird populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davenport, T.; Jeffers, J.N.R.; North, P.M.; Clark, N.A.; Langston, R.H.W.; Prys-Jones, R.P.

    1990-01-01

    This study was performed to examine the monitoring requirements for detecting tidal barrage induced changes to estuary bird populations, focussing mainly on the Mersey estuary. The degree of variability in populations between years for a number of species within the Mersey, Dee, Alt and Ribble were ascertained. The number of counts needed each winter, before and after barrage construction, were assessed. The percentage charge detectable for species was predicted. One east coast estuary (the Wash) was investigated for comparison of the effects of influences of severe weather. (UK)

  20. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  1. Regional Trends in Electromobility - Regional Study North America

    OpenAIRE

    Turrentine, Tom; Garas, Dhalia

    2015-01-01

    The subproject “Regional Trends in Electro mobility” aims at identifying and analyzing major trends in the field of electro mobility. The trend analysis will monitor research effort and upcoming technologies, policies, products and market developments in different focus regions around the world continuously to enable a systematic analysis of global trends. The regional trend analysis for electro mobility is a major keystone for the project success and therefore cooperation with...

  2. Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

    2017-08-01

    To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  3. Trends of chemical monitoring in power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.; Venz, H.

    1983-01-01

    Frequently, the state-of-the-art of chemical monitoring in power plants is still determined by conservative methods. A thorough rationalization requires not only modern analytical procedures, but also the consideration of chemically affected processes in complex process analyses and the combination of automatic analyzers with available process computers. Using some examples, ways of reducing monitoring efforts without impairing safety and economy of nuclear power plant operation are pointed out. (author)

  4. Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric G. Nolte

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964, and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

  5. Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

    OpenAIRE

    Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

    2014-01-01

    Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary...

  6. Population and age-group trends in weekend sun protection and sunburn over two decades of the SunSmart programme in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makin, J K; Warne, C D; Dobbinson, S J; Wakefield, M A; Hill, D J

    2013-01-01

    In response to the high skin cancer burden in Australia, the multicomponent, community-wide SunSmart programme has worked since 1988 to reduce excessive sun exposure.  To examine trends in key sun-protection behaviours and sunburn for the Melbourne population from 1987 to 2007, and examine for the first time patterns of change among age groups.   Representative cross-sectional weekly telephone surveys of weekend sun protection and sunburn were conducted over 11 of the summers in the period 1987-88 to 2006-07. Trends were analysed for the population and for age groups, adjusting for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation, which are environmental determinants of sun-related behaviour and sunburn.   The general pattern of trends suggests two distinct periods, one with rapid improvement in behaviours (more sunscreen use, less unprotected body exposure and less sunburn) from 1987-88 to 1994-95, and the second from 1997-98 to 2006-07 with fewer changes in behaviours noted. The age-group analyses showed a similar pattern of change over time across groups, with a few notable exceptions.  The similarity of the pattern of trends among age groups suggests that external influences including the SunSmart programme's activity had a relatively similar impact across the population. Sun-related behaviours continue to be amenable to change. More recent relative stability with some declines in sun protection suggests further intensive campaigns and other strategies may be needed to maintain previous successes and to achieve more universal use of sun protection. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

  7. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Research in wildlife conservation and management often affects decisions made by managers. Improving understanding through applied research is key to advancing the ability to manage birds and other organism sefficiently. Indeed, many papers from EURING 2003 and previous EURING meetings describe research on problems of pressing management concern. In this session, we focus on a subset of studies in which modeling and statistical estimation is explicitly connected to management decision-making. In these decision–centric studies, data are gathered and models are constructed with the explicit intention of using the resulting information to inform decisions about conservation. Whereas ecological models often produce information of value to decision makers, decision models explicitly include two additional features. First, management options are modeled via decision variables that link to system attributes that are directly responsive to management actions, such as harvest and habitat management. Second, certain outcomes are assigned value, via an objective or utility function. Both of these features involve factors beyond the usual consideration of ecological modeling; the first implies the presence of one or more “decision makers”, and the second characterizes the societal preferences of each possible outcome resulting from a prospective decision. Our plenary paper, by Tim Haas (Haas, 2004, ventures the furthest into the realm of human behavior and societal processes by modeling the political context for conservation of the endangered cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus in Africa. Haas shows that scientific information (e.g., population monitoring and population viability analyses reaches decision makers through multiple pathways, each of which can modify or reinterpret the information signal. A predictive understanding of the country’s political as well as ecological processes is essential. Hass uses a system of interacting ecological and political

  8. Fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction: a new population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjessing, H K; Grøttum, P; Økland, I; Eik-Nes, S H

    2017-04-01

    To develop a complete, population-based system for ultrasound-based fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction for use in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Using 31 516 ultrasound examinations from a population-based Norwegian clinical database, we constructed fetal size charts for biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference from 24 to 42 weeks' gestation. A reference curve of median birth weight for gestational age was estimated using 45 037 birth weights. We determined how individual deviations from the expected ultrasound measures predicted individual percentage deviations from expected birth weight. The predictive quality was assessed by explained variance of birth weight and receiver-operating characteristics curves for prediction of small-for-gestational age. A curve for intrauterine estimated fetal weight was constructed. Charts were smoothed using the gamlss non-linear regression method. The population-based approach, using bias-free ultrasound gestational age, produces stable estimates of size-for-age and weight-for-age curves in the range 24-42 weeks' gestation. There is a close correspondence between percentage deviations and percentiles of birth weight by gestational age, making it easy to convert between the two. The variance of birth weight that can be 'explained' by ultrasound increases from 8% at 20 weeks up to 67% around term. Intrauterine estimated fetal weight is 0-106 g higher than median birth weight in the preterm period. The new population-based birth-weight prediction model provides a simple summary measure, the 'percentage birth-weight deviation', to be used for fetal size monitoring throughout the third trimester. Predictive quality of the model can be measured directly from the population data. The model computes both median observed birth weight and intrauterine estimated fetal weight. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John

  9. Genetic monitoring of experimental Drosophila populations exposed to X-radiation and treated with melanin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosseh, I.B.; Savchenko, V.K.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1985-01-01

    Monitoring of laboratory populations of Drosophila over four years has demonstrated that X radiation of 0.25 C/kg, delivered during the life span of each generation, causes a decrease of 20% and 30%, on the average, in the number of individuals in 1-55 generations and 45-55 generations, respectively. The antimutagen, melanin, added to a nutrient medium has no effect on the number of individuals in populations

  10. Hybrid Modeling Improves Health and Performance Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    Scientific Monitoring Inc. was awarded a Phase I Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project by NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center to create a new, simplified health-monitoring approach for flight vehicles and flight equipment. The project developed a hybrid physical model concept that provided a structured approach to simplifying complex design models for use in health monitoring, allowing the output or performance of the equipment to be compared to what the design models predicted, so that deterioration or impending failure could be detected before there would be an impact on the equipment's operational capability. Based on the original modeling technology, Scientific Monitoring released I-Trend, a commercial health- and performance-monitoring software product named for its intelligent trending, diagnostics, and prognostics capabilities, as part of the company's complete ICEMS (Intelligent Condition-based Equipment Management System) suite of monitoring and advanced alerting software. I-Trend uses the hybrid physical model to better characterize the nature of health or performance alarms that result in "no fault found" false alarms. Additionally, the use of physical principles helps I-Trend identify problems sooner. I-Trend technology is currently in use in several commercial aviation programs, and the U.S. Air Force recently tapped Scientific Monitoring to develop next-generation engine health-management software for monitoring its fleet of jet engines. Scientific Monitoring has continued the original NASA work, this time under a Phase III SBIR contract with a joint NASA-Pratt & Whitney aviation security program on propulsion-controlled aircraft under missile-damaged aircraft conditions.

  11. Radium-226 in the population diet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toader, Maria

    1993-01-01

    The content of Ra-226 has been determined in samples of drinking water and food in Bucharest area in the frame of a food radioactivity monitoring program between 1987 and 1991. It has been estimated that, daily, the Bucharest population ingests 1. 4 pCi of Ra=226 or 0.89 pCi/g Ca. 1 g of Ca carries o.89 pCi Ra-226. Ra 226 was radiochemically separated by the coprecipitation method with barium chromate. The radiometric measurements were performed on an alpha measurement system with low level and high efficiency. Over the scanned period no trend of systematic increase or decrease of the Ra-226 content in the basic food of Bucharest population was observed. (author)

  12. Improving aquatic warbler population assessments by accounting for imperfect detection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steffen Oppel

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola, which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional 'full count' approach (175 observer days. Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of

  13. Demographic monitoring and population viability analysis of two rare beardtongues from the Uinta Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Reisor, Rita; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Brunson, Jessi

    2014-01-01

    Energy development, in combination with other environmental stressors, poses a persistent threat to rare species endemic to the energy-producing regions of the Western United States. Demographic analyses of monitored populations can provide key information on the natural dynamics of threatened plant and animal populations, and how they might be affected by ongoing and future development. In the Uinta Basin in Utah and Colorado, Graham’s beardtongue (Penstemon grahamii) and White River beardtongue (Penstemon scariosus var. albifluvis) are two rare endemic wildflowers that persist on oil shale habitats heavily impacted by current energy exploration and development, and slated for expanded traditional drilling and oil shale development. We described demographic characteristics and population viability for two populations of each species that have been monitored since 2004. First, we measured population size, survival rates, transitions between life stages, and recruitment using individually marked plants at the four study areas. Then, we used matrix population models to determine stochastic population growth rates (λ) and the probability that each population would persist 50 years into the future, given current conditions. The two P. grahamii study plots had small populations averaging 70 adult plants, and relatively constant and high survival in both vegetative and flowering plants. The two P. scariosus var. albifluvis study plots had populations that averaged 120 adult plants, with high and stable survival in flowering plants and variable survival in vegetative plants. Recruitment of new seedlings into all populations was low and variable, with most recruitment occurring in one or two years. Both P. grahamii populations had λ near 1.0 (stable). One P. scariosus var. albifluvis population appeared to be declining (λ=0.97), while the other was increasing (λ=1.16). Our analyses reveal populations that appear relatively stable, but that are

  14. Toward youth self-report of health and quality of life in population monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topolski, Tari D; Edwards, Todd C; Patrick, Donald L

    2004-01-01

    This paper addresses population monitoring of youth health and quality of life, including the concepts used, methodological and practical criteria for indicators, and existing surveys and measures. Current population surveys of youth generally focus on poor health, such as disability or health-risk behaviors. Although these are important end points, indicators of illness or risk do not reflect the health or life perspective of the majority of youth who do not experience health problems. The measures used to monitor youth health should be appropriate and sensitive to future needs and capture the perspectives of youths. Two potential concepts for this "scorecard" are self-perceived health and quality of life, which have been shown to be useful in adults. For youth, the quality of life framework seems particularly relevant as it incorporates both positive and negative aspects of health and well-being and also captures salient aspects of health other than physical health, such as sense of self, social relationships, environment and culture, and life satisfaction.

  15. Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (

  16. 20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

  17. Coordinating across scales: Building a regional marsh bird monitoring program from national and state Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shriver, G.W.; Sauer, J.R.

    2008-01-01

    Salt marsh breeding bird populations (rails, bitterns, sparrows, etc.) in eastern North America are high conservation priorities in need of site specific and regional monitoring designed to detect population changes over time. The present status and trends of these species are unknown but anecdotal evidence of declines in many of the species has raised conservation concerns. Most of these species are listed as conservation priorities on comprehensive wildlife plans throughout the eastern U.S. National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service units, and other wildlife conservation areas provide important salt marsh habitat. To meet management needs for these areas, and to assist regional conservation planning, survey designs are being developed to estimate abundance and population trends for these breeding bird species. The primary purpose of this project is to develop a hierarchical sampling frame for salt marsh birds in Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 30 that will provide the ability to estimate species population abundances on 1) specific sites (i.e. National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges), 2) within states or regions, and 3) within BCR 30. The entire breeding range of Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed and Coastal Plain Swamp sparrows are within BCR 30, providing an opportunity to detect population trends within the entire breeding ranges of two priority species.

  18. [Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

    2017-05-10

    We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

  19. Dealing with incomplete and variable detectability in multi-year, multi-site monitoring of ecological populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    An ecological monitoring program should be viewed as a component of a larger framework designed to advance science and/or management, rather than as a stand-alone activity. Monitoring targets (the ecological variables of interest; e.g. abundance or occurrence of a species) should be set based on the needs of that framework (Nichols and Williams 2006; e.g. Chapters 2–4). Once such monitoring targets are set, the subsequent step in monitoring design involves consideration of the field and analytical methods that will be used to measure monitoring targets with adequate accuracy and precision. Long-term monitoring programs will involve replication of measurements over time, and possibly over space; that is, one location or each of multiple locations will be monitored multiple times, producing a collection of site visits (replicates). Clearly this replication is important for addressing spatial and temporal variability in the ecological resources of interest (Chapters 7–10), but it is worth considering how this replication can further be exploited to increase the effectiveness of monitoring. In particular, defensible monitoring of the majority of animal, and to a lesser degree plant, populations and communities will generally require investigators to account for imperfect detection (Chapters 4, 18). Raw indices of population state variables, such as abundance or occupancy (sensu MacKenzie et al. 2002), are rarely defensible when detection probabilities are challenges associated with estimating detection probabilities (e.g. McKelvey and Pearson 2001, Johnson 2008), we do not attempt to resolve this debate here. Rather, we are more apt to agree with MacKenzie and Kendall (2002) that the burden of proof ought to be on the assertion that detection probabilities are constant. Furthermore, given the wide variety of field methods available for estimating detection probabilities and the inability for an investigator to know, a priori, if detection probabilities will be

  20. Monitoring Population Evolution in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 TO 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, S.; Liu, F.; Zhang, Z.

    2018-04-01

    On behalf of more populous and developed regions in China, urban agglomerations have become important carries loading active economic activities and generous social benefits, and experienced sharper population increase, which results in great threat on local eco-environment construction. Therefore, exact and detailed population monitoring and analyzing, especially on the long sequence and multi frequency, is of great significance. The nighttime light time-series (NLT) products has been proven to be one of the most useful remotely sensed imagery to acquire persons at 1 km × 1 km scales. However, the existed problems, such as light saturation and blooming, greatly limit the accuracy of estimated results. Furthermore, it's difficult to spatialize population at km2 level due to the lack of basic data in non-census years. In order to solve all problems mentioned above, the populous Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area. A new residential extent extraction index (REEI) was proposed to solve light saturation and blooming problems. Population spatialization methods in census and non-census years were applied to acquire detailed population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results showed the feasibility of the proposed methods in this work. During the decade, population was denser in the central PRD and sparser in the eastern, western and northern PRD. The speed of population increase was various in nine cities, but faster in 2000-2005 than 2005-2010.

  1. Trends in sea otter population abundance in western Prince William Sound, Alaska: Progress toward recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Esslinger, George G.

    2011-01-01

    Sea otters in western Prince William Sound (WPWS) and elsewhere in the Gulf of Alaska suffered widespread mortality as a result of oiling following the 1989 T/V Exxon Valdez oil spill. Following the spill, extensive efforts have been directed toward identifying and understanding long-term consequences of the spill and the process of recovery. We conducted annual aerial surveys of sea otter abundance from 1993 to 2009 (except for 2001 and 2006) in WPWS. We observed an increasing trend in population abundance at the scale of WPWS through 2000 at an average annual rate of 4 percent: however, at northern Knight Island where oiling was heaviest and sea otter mortality highest, no increase in abundance was evident by 2000. We continued to see significant increase in abundance at the scale of WPWS between 2001 and 2009, with an average annual rate of increase from 1993 to 2009 of 2.6 percent. We estimated the 2009 population size of WPWS to be 3,958 animals (standard error=653), nearly 2,000 animals more than the first post-spill estimate in 1993. Surveys since 2003 also have identified a significant increasing trend at the heavily oiled site in northern Knight Island, averaging about 25 percent annually and resulting in a 2009 estimated population size of 116 animals (standard error=19). Although the 2009 estimate for northern Knight Island remains about 30 percent less than the pre-spill estimate of 165 animals, we interpret this trend as strong evidence of a trajectory toward recovery of spill-affected sea otter populations in WPWS.

  2. Offsite environmental monitoring report. Radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patzer, R.G.; Black, S.C.; Grossman, R.F.; Smith, D.D.

    1984-07-01

    This report covers the routine radiation monitoring activities conducted by the Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas in areas which may be affected by nuclear testing programs of the Department of Energy. This monitoring is conducted to document compliance with standards, to identify trends in environmental radiation, and to provide such information to the public. It summarizes these activities for calendar year 1983. No radioactivity attributable to NTS activities was detectable offsite by the monitoring networks. Using recorded wind data and Pasquill stability categories, atmospheric dispersion calculations based on reported radionuclide releases yield an estimated dose of 5 x 10 -5 man-rem to the population within 80 km of the Nevada Test Site during 1983. World-wide fallout of Kr-85, Sr-90, Cs-137, and Pu-239 detected by the monitoring networks would cause maximum exposure to an individual of less than 0.2 mrem per year. Plutonium and krypton in air were similar to 1982 levels while cesium and strontium in other samples were near the detection limits. An occasional net exposure to offsite residents has been detected by the TLD network. On investigation, the cause of such net exposures has been due to personal habits or occupational activities, not to NTS activities. 29 references, 35 figures, 30 tables

  3. Groundwater resources monitoring and population displacement in northern Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalikakis, K.; Hammache, Y.; Nawa, A.; Slinski, K.; Petropoulos, G.; Muteesasira, A.

    2009-04-01

    Northern Uganda has been devastated by more than 20 years of open conflict by the LRA (Lord's Resistance Army) and the Government of Uganda. This war has been marked by extreme violence against civilians, who had been gathered in protected IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps. At the height of the displacement in 2007, the UN office for coordination of humanitarian affairs, estimated that nearly 2.5 million people were interned into approximately 220 camps throughout Northern Uganda. With the improved security since mid-2006, the people displaced by the conflict in Northern Uganda started to move out of the overcrowded camps and return either to their villages/parishes of origin or to resettlement/transit sites. However, basic water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure in the return areas or any new settlements sites are minimal. People returning to their villages of origin encounter a situation where in many cases there is no access to safe water. Since 1998 ACF (Action Against Hunger, part of the Action Contre la Faim International Network) activities have been concentrated in the Acholi and Lango regions of Northern Uganda. ACF's WASH (Water, sanitation and hygiene) department interventions concern sanitation infrastructure, hygiene education and promotion as well as water points implementation. To ensure safe water access, actions are focused in borehole construction and traditional spring rehabilitation, also called "protected" springs. These activities follow the guidelines as set forth by the international WASH cluster, led by UNICEF. A three year project (2008-2010) is being implemented by ACF, to monitor the available groundwater resources in Northern Uganda. The main objectives are: 1. to monitor the groundwater quality from existing water points during different hydrological seasons, 2. to identify, if any, potential risks of contamination from population concentrations and displacement, lack of basic infrastructure and land use, and finally 3. to

  4. Assessment of bird populations in a high quality savanna/woodland: a banding approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmore, Sandra L.; Glowacki, Gary A.; Grundel, Ralph

    2005-01-01

    Between 1999 and 2004, Save the Dunes Conservation Fund's Miller Woods Bird Banding Program monitored migrating and breeding bird populations within a high quality black oak, dry-mesic sand savanna/woodland with ridge and swale topography. The objectives of this program were to collect consistent and reliable demographic and abundance data on the bird populations, to investigate long-term population trends, and to contribute to improved land management decisions at regional and national scales. The technique employed involved capturing birds in mist nets that were deployed for set periods of time at 17 net sites in two banding areas in Miller Woods.

  5. Passive Acoustic Monitoring of the Environmental Impact of Oil Exploration on Marine Mammals in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorovskaia, Natalia A; Ackleh, Azmy S; Tiemann, Christopher O; Ma, Baoling; Ioup, Juliette W; Ioup, George E

    2016-01-01

    The Gulf of Mexico is a region densely populated by marine mammals that must adapt to living in a highly active industrial environment. This paper presents a new approach to quantifying the anthropogenic impact on the marine mammal population. The results for sperm and beaked whales of a case study of regional population dynamics trends after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, derived from passive acoustic-monitoring data gathered before and after the spill in the vicinity of the accident, are presented.

  6. Recent fertility and mortality trends among aboriginal and nonaboriginal populations of central Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, W R; Keenleyside, A; Ivakine, E

    1997-06-01

    We examine mortality and fertility patterns of aboriginal (primarily Evenki and Keto) and Russian (i.e., nonaboriginal) populations from the Baykit District of Central Siberia for the period 1982-1994. Mortality rates in the aboriginal population of Baykit are substantially greater than those observed in the Russians and are comparable to levels recently reported for other indigenous Siberian groups. Infant mortality rates average 48 per 1000 live births among Baykit aboriginals, three times greater than the Russians of the district (15 per 1000 births) and more than double the rates for Inuit and Indian populations of Canada. Similarly, crude death rates of the Baykit aboriginals are twice as high as those observed in either the Baykit Russians or the Canadian aboriginal populations (13 vs 6-7 deaths per 1000 individuals). Birth rates of the indigenous population of Baykit are higher than those of the Russians (33 vs. 15 births per 1000 individuals) but are comparable to those of Canadian aboriginal groups. Violence and accidents are the leading causes of adult male mortality in both ethnic groups, whereas circulatory diseases have emerged as the prime cause of death in women. The greater male mortality resulting from violence and accidents is a widely observed cross-cultural phenomenon. The emergence of circulatory diseases as a major mortality risk for women, however, appears to be linked to specific lifestyle changes associated with Soviet reorganization of indigenous Siberian societies. Marked declines in mortality and increases in fertility were observed in the Baykit aboriginal population during the mid to late 1980s with the government's implementation of anti-alcohol policies. The decline in mortality, however, was largely erased during the early 1990s, as the region became increasingly isolated and marginalized following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Demographic trends in the Baykit District suggest that because the indigenous groups have become more

  7. Graphic overview system for DOE's effluent and environmental monitoring programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burson, Z.G.; Elle, D.R.

    1980-03-01

    The Graphic Overview System is a compilation of photos, maps, overlays, and summary information of environmental programs and related data for each DOE site. The information consists of liquid and airborne effluent release points, on-site storage locations, monitoring locations, aerial survey results, population distributions, wind roses, and other related information. The relationships of different environmental programs are visualized through the use of colored overlays. Trends in monitoring data, effluent releases, and on-site storage data are also provided as a corollary to the graphic display of monitoring and release points. The results provide a working tool with which DOE management (headquarters and field offices) can place in proper perspective key aspects of all environmental programs and related data, and the resulting public impact of each DOE site

  8. Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

    2015-03-15

    Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Temporal trends in management and outcomes of testicular cancer: A population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leveridge, Michael J; Siemens, D Robert; Brennan, Kelly; Izard, Jason P; Karim, Safiya; An, Howard; Mackillop, William J; Booth, Christopher M

    2018-04-16

    Treatment guidelines for early-stage testicular cancer have increasingly recommended de-escalation of therapy with surveillance strategies. This study was designed to describe temporal trends in routine clinical practice and to determine whether de-escalation of therapy is associated with inferior survival in the general population. The Ontario Cancer Registry was linked to electronic records of treatment to identify all patients diagnosed with testicular cancer treated with orchiectomy in Ontario during 2000-2010. Treatment after orchiectomy was classified as radiotherapy (RT), retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND), chemotherapy, or none. Surveillance was defined as no identified treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were measured from the date of orchiectomy. The study population included 1564 and 1086 cases of seminomas and nonseminoma germ cell tumors (NSGCTs), respectively. Among patients with seminomas, there was a significant increase in the proportion of patients with no treatment within 90 days of orchiectomy (from 56% to 84%; P testicular cancer in routine practice since 2000. Long-term survival in routine practice is excellent and has not decreased with the uptake of surveillance strategies. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  10. U.S. NO2 trends (2005-2013): EPA Air Quality System (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Streets, David G.; Lu, Zifeng

    2015-06-01

    Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO2 levels have decreased by 30-40% in the last decade. We quantify NO2 trends (2005-2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. We demonstrate that the current OMI NO2 algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence of trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO2 concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NOx emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO2 standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO2 reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO2 VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly

  11. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  12. Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

    2014-04-01

    Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (pobesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  13. Monitoring of populations and productivity of seabirds at St. George Island, Cape Peirce, and Bluff, Alaska, 1989. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendenhall, V.M.

    1991-04-01

    In recent years, although descriptive studies have continued, the emphasis on population monitoring of seabirds has increased. Commercial uses of the Continental Shelf of the Bering and Chukchi Seas, including oil and gas development, subsurface placer mining, and commercial fishing, carry the potential for adverse pressures on seabird populations. Populations and productivity of seabirds were monitored in 1989 at three Bering Sea colonies: St. George, Cape Peirce, and Bluff. Murres and black-legged kittiwakes were monitored at all colonies to facilitate intercolony comparisons. These species were selected because they are relatively easy to study, numerous, sensitive to potential impacts of development, and widely distributed. Red legged kittiwakes also were monitored at St. George because of concern for the world status of the species. Methods were standardized among the three colonies to facilitate comparisons among colonies and years. Observations of productivity began at the time nests were established and continued until most young had fledged. Kittiwake nests and murre breeding sites used for estimation of productivity were mapped on photographs or sketches and the fate of each was recorded

  14. Faunal and vegetation monitoring in response to harbor dredging in the Port of Miami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Andre; Stevenson, Rachael; Smith, Erin; Robblee, Michael

    2018-04-11

    Seagrasses are highly productive ecosystems. A before-after-control-impact (BACI) design was used to examine effects of dredging on seagrasses and the animals that inhabit them. The control site North Biscayne Bay and the affected site Port of Miami had seagrass densities decrease during both the before, Fish and Invertebrate Assessment Network 2006-2011, and after, Faunal Monitoring in Response to Harbor Dredging 2014-2016, studies. Turbidity levels increased at North Biscayne Bay and Port of Miami basins during the Faunal Monitoring in Response to Harbor Dredging study, especially in 2016. Animal populations decreased significantly in North Biscayne Bay and Port of Miami in the Faunal Monitoring in Response to Harbor Dredging study compared to the Fish and Invertebrate Assessment Network study. Predictive modeling shows that numbers of animal populations will likely continue to decrease if the negative trends in seagrass densities continue unabated. There could be effects on several fisheries vital to the south Florida economy. Additional research could determine if animal populations and seagrass densities have rebounded or continued to decrease.

  15. French citizens monitoring ordinary birds provide tools for conservation and ecological sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Julliard, Romain; Couvet, Denis

    2012-10-01

    Volunteer-based standardized monitoring of birds has been widely implemented in Europe and North America. In France, a breeding bird survey is running since 1989 and offers keen birdwatchers to count spring birds annually during 5 min exactly on 10 fix points within a randomly selected square. The first goal of such breeding bird surveys is to measure temporal trends in order to detect possible species declines. Combining annual indices of species sharing ecological affinities or a protected/red list status further provides biodiversity indicators for policy makers. Because the sampling effort is similar among sites, and because the initial selection of monitored sites is random, the temporal trends can be considered representative of national trends, and spatial comparisons of the obtained metrics are possible. Species abundance, community richness but also community specialization and average trophic level can be estimated for each site and each year and further related to the wide range of habitat and landscape characteristics and to agricultural or forestry practices. The large number of sites allows overcoming the opposition between adaptive and passive monitoring, making such schemes fitted to adaptive monitoring. This provides opportunities to determine which type of management or practices favour biodiversity. The comparison of population fate or community dynamics across a wide range of climates and temperatures, e.g. from southern to northern Europe, revealed how European birds are already affected by climate change. Bird communities are shifting northwards, but at a slower rate than temperatures, while bird populations have larger growth rates away from their hot thermal limit. Finally, such large-scale long-term monitoring data on a complete taxonomic group (Aves) is original and offers the opportunity to compare different measures of biological diversity, such as taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity. Such a citizen science scheme is an

  16. Golden Eagle Monitoring Plan for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, David; Kolar, Patrick; Katzner, Todd

    2018-01-01

    This report describes options for monitoring the status and population trends of the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) within the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) area of Southern California in maintaining stable or increasing population in the planning area. The report profiles the ecology of golden eagles in the region and provides a range of potential sampling options to address monitoring needs and objectives. This approach also focused on links between changes in human land-use, golden eagle nesting and foraging habitat conditions, and population dynamics. The report outlines how monitoring data from demographic, prey, and habitat studies were used to develop a predictive demographic model for golden eagles in the DRECP area. Results from the model simulations suggest increases in renewable energy development could have negative consequences for population trajectories. Results also suggest site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative impacts to the local population of eagles. A monitoring framework is proposed including: (1) annual assessments of site-occupancy and reproduction by territorial pairs of golden eagles (including rates at which sites become colonized or vacated over time); (2) estimates of survival, movements, and intensity of use of landscapes by breeding and non-breeding golden eagles; (3) periodic (conducted every two to four years) assessments of nesting and foraging habitats, prey populations, and associations with land-use and management activities; and (4) updating the predictive demographic model with new information obtained on eagles and associated population stressors. The results of this research were published in the Journal of Rapture Research, Wiens, David,Inman, Rich D., Esque, Todd C., Longshore, Kathleen M. and Nussear, Kenneth (2017). Spatial Demographic Models to Inform Conservation Planning of Golden Eagles in Renewable Energy Landscapes. 51(3):234-257.

  17. Safety Evaluation of an Automated Remote Monitoring System for Heart Failure in an Urban, Indigent Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross-Schulman, Sandra; Sklaroff, Laura Myerchin; Hertz, Crystal Coyazo; Guterman, Jeffrey J

    2017-12-01

    Heart Failure (HF) is the most expensive preventable condition, regardless of patient ethnicity, race, socioeconomic status, sex, and insurance status. Remote telemonitoring with timely outpatient care can significantly reduce avoidable HF hospitalizations. Human outreach, the traditional method used for remote monitoring, is effective but costly. Automated systems can potentially provide positive clinical, fiscal, and satisfaction outcomes in chronic disease monitoring. The authors implemented a telephonic HF automated remote monitoring system that utilizes deterministic decision tree logic to identify patients who are at risk of clinical decompensation. This safety study evaluated the degree of clinical concordance between the automated system and traditional human monitoring. This study focused on a broad underserved population and demonstrated a safe, reliable, and inexpensive method of monitoring patients with HF.

  18. National Surveys of Population Health: Big Data Analytics for Mobile Health Monitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatz, Bruce R

    2015-12-01

    At the core of the healthcare crisis is fundamental lack of actionable data. Such data could stratify individuals within populations to predict which persons have which outcomes. If baselines existed for all variations of all conditions, then managing health could be improved by matching the measuring of individuals to their cohort in the population. The scale required for complete baselines involves effective National Surveys of Population Health (NSPH). Traditionally, these have been focused upon acute medicine, measuring people to contain the spread of epidemics. In recent decades, the focus has moved to chronic conditions as well, which require smaller measures over longer times. NSPH have long utilized quality of life questionnaires. Mobile Health Monitors, where computing technologies eliminate manual administration, provide richer data sets for health measurement. Older technologies of telephone interviews will be replaced by newer technologies of smartphone sensors to provide deeper individual measures at more frequent timings across larger-sized populations. Such continuous data can provide personal health records, supporting treatment guidelines specialized for population cohorts. Evidence-based medicine will become feasible by leveraging hundreds of millions of persons carrying mobile devices interacting with Internet-scale services for Big Data Analytics.

  19. Trends in the breeding population of Adelie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil O'B Lyver

    Full Text Available Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981-2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28% of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island. The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of -0.019 during 1981-2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001-2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni, may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

  20. Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Ezzati, Majid

    2010-01-01

    Objective Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence. Methods We used a population-based model of intestinal-type gastric cancer to estimate gastric cancer incidence between 1985 and 2050. Disease and risk factor data in the model were from community-based epidemiological studies and national prevalence surveys. Results Between 1985 and 2005, age-standardized gastric cancer incidence among Chinese men declined from 30.8 to 27.2 per 100,000 (12%); trends in H. pylori and smoking prevalences accounted for >30% of overall decline. If past risk factor trends continue, gastric cancer incidence will decline an additional 30% by 2050. Yet, annual cases will increase from 116,000 to 201,000 due to population growth and aging. Assuming that H. pylori prevention/treatment and tobacco control are implemented in 2010, the decline in gastric cancer incidence is projected to increase to 33% with universal H. pylori treatment for 20-year-olds, 42% for a hypothetical childhood H. pylori vaccine, and 34% for aggressive tobacco control. Conclusions The decline in gastric cancer incidence has been slower than in developed countries and will be offset by population growth and aging. Public health interventions should be implemented to reduce the total number of cases. PMID:19642005

  1. Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dora Ordóñez

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Materials and methods. Age-standardized (Segi’s world population incidence (ASIR and mortality (ASMR rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH respectively. Annual percentage change (APC was used to measure the changes in rates over time. Results. 1 637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6 and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4.The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5. Conclusions. There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma

  2. [Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

  3. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  4. Trends in clinical diagnoses of Rocky Mountain spotted fever among American Indians, 2001-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folkema, Arianne M; Holman, Robert C; McQuiston, Jennifer H; Cheek, James E

    2012-01-01

    American Indians are at greater risk for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) than the general U.S. population. The epidemiology of RMSF among American Indians was examined by using Indian Health Service inpatient and outpatient records with an RMSF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis. For 2001-2008, 958 American Indian patients with clinical diagnoses of RMSF were reported. The average annual RMSF incidence was 94.6 per 1,000,000 persons, with a significant increasing incidence trend from 24.2 in 2001 to 139.4 in 2008 (P = 0.006). Most (89%) RMSF hospital visits occurred in the Southern Plains and Southwest regions, where the average annual incidence rates were 277.2 and 49.4, respectively. Only the Southwest region had a significant increasing incidence trend (P = 0.005), likely linked to the emergence of brown dog ticks as an RMSF vector in eastern Arizona. It is important to continue monitoring RMSF infection to inform public health interventions that target RMSF reduction in high-risk populations.

  5. Toward objective monitoring of ingestive behavior in free-living population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Edward S; Schuckers, Stephanie A C; Lopez-Meyer, Paulo; Makeyev, Oleksandr; Melanson, Edward L; Neuman, Michael R; Hill, James O

    2009-10-01

    Understanding of eating behaviors associated with obesity requires objective and accurate monitoring of food intake patterns. Accurate methods are available for measuring total energy expenditure and its components in free-living populations, but methods for measuring food intake in free-living people are far less accurate and involve self-reporting or subjective monitoring. We suggest that chews and swallows can be used for objective monitoring of ingestive behavior. This hypothesis was verified in a human study involving 20 subjects. Chews and swallows were captured during periods of quiet resting, talking, and meals of varying size. The counts of chews and swallows along with other derived metrics were used to build prediction models for detection of food intake, differentiation between liquids and solids, and for estimation of the mass of ingested food. The proposed prediction models were able to detect periods of food intake with >95% accuracy and a fine time resolution of 30 s, differentiate solid foods from liquids with >91% accuracy, and predict mass of ingested food with >91% accuracy for solids and >83% accuracy for liquids. In earlier publications, we have shown that chews and swallows can be captured by noninvasive sensors that could be developed into a wearable device. Thus, the proposed methodology could lead to the development of an innovative new way of assessing human eating behavior in free-living conditions.

  6. Childhood leukaemia in Europe after Chernobyl: Five year follow-up of cancer registry populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parkin, D M; Black, R J; Kramarova, E [International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon (France); Clayton, D [University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    1997-09-01

    The European Childhood Leukaemia-Lymphoma Incidence Study (ECLIS) aims to monitor trends in the incidence of these diseases in European populations in relation to estimated exposures to radioactive material released at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Thirty-six cancer registries in 23 countries are collaborating in ECLIS, coordinated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). 3 figs, 3 tabs.

  7. Childhood leukaemia in Europe after Chernobyl: Five year follow-up of cancer registry populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkin, D.M.; Black, R.J.; Kramarova, E.; Clayton, D.

    1997-01-01

    The European Childhood Leukaemia-Lymphoma Incidence Study (ECLIS) aims to monitor trends in the incidence of these diseases in European populations in relation to estimated exposures to radioactive material released at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Thirty-six cancer registries in 23 countries are collaborating in ECLIS, coordinated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). 3 figs, 3 tabs

  8. Cocaine, MDMA and methamphetamine residues in wastewater: Consumption trends (2009-2015) in South East Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Foon Yin; O'Brien, Jake W; Thai, Phong K; Hall, Wayne; Chan, Gary; Bruno, Raimondo; Ort, Christoph; Prichard, Jeremy; Carter, Steve; Anuj, Shalona; Kirkbride, K Paul; Gartner, Coral; Humphries, Melissa; Mueller, Jochen F

    2016-10-15

    Wastewater analysis, or wastewater-based epidemiology, has become a common tool to monitor trends of illicit drug consumption around the world. In this study, we examined trends in cocaine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and methamphetamine consumption by measuring their residues in wastewater from two wastewater treatment plants in Australia (specifically, an urban and a rural catchment, both in South East Queensland) between 2009 and 2015. With direct injection of the samples, target analytes were identified and quantified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Cocaine and MDMA residues and metabolites were mainly quantifiable in the urban catchment while methamphetamine residues were consistently detected in both urban and rural catchments. There was no consistent trend in the population normalised mass loads observed for cocaine and MDMA at the urban site between 2009 and 2015. In contrast, there was a five-fold increase in methamphetamine consumption over this period in this catchment. For methamphetamine consumption, the rural area showed a very similar trend as the urban catchment starting at a lower baseline. The observed increase in per capita loads of methamphetamine via wastewater analysis over the past six years in South East Queensland provides objective evidence for increased methamphetamine consumption in the Australian population while the use of other illicit stimulants remained relatively stable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. [Static Retinal Vessel Analysis in Population-based Study SHIP-Trend].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theophil, Constanze; Jürgens, Clemens; Großjohann, Rico; Kempin, Robert; Ittermann, Till; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Tost, Frank H W

    2017-08-24

    Background Interdisciplinary investigations of possible connections between general diseases and ophthalmological changes are difficult to perform in the clinical environment. But they are gaining in importance as a result of the age-related increase in chronic diseases. The collection of health-related parameters in the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project allows to derive conclusions for the general population. Methods The population-based SHIP trend study was conducted between 2008 and 2012 in Greifswald. The baseline cohort included 4420 subjects (response 50.1%) at the age of 20 to 84 years. The pre-existence of arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus and smoking status were questioned in a standardized questionnaire, the blood pressure and the HbA 1c were determined by the laboratory. The vascular diameter of retinal arterioles and venules were determined by means of non-mydriatic fundus images and the retinal arterial (CRAE) and venous equivalent (CRVE) were calculated therefrom. The association of diabetes mellitus, HbA 1c , smoking status and blood pressure with the retinal vascular parameters was tested for age and sex with linear regression models. Results In 3218 subjects with evaluable standardized fundus photographs, significant associations of elevated HbA 1c (> 6.5%), smoking status and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were found with the retinal vessel widths CRAE and CRVE. Anamnestic diabetes mellitus, on the other hand, was not associated with any of the vascular parameters. Conclusion This research study reveals a relevant correlation between general diseases and the retinal blood flow in the eye. Therefore, general diseases can induce ophthalmological changes and eye examination can provide information for the assessment of general diseases. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  10. Northwest Forest Plan—the first 10 years (1994-2003): status and trends of populations and nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark H. Huff; Martin G. Raphael; Sherri L. Miller; S. Kim Nelson; Jim Baldwin

    2006-01-01

    The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for federal land in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on marbled murrelet ecology and present the monitoring...

  11. Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franeker, Jan A. van; Law, Kara Lavender

    2015-01-01

    Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly “lost” from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. - Highlights: • Seabirds are effective biological monitors of floating plastic marine debris. • Plastics in fulmar stomachs and in the North Atlantic gyre show similar trends. • Pre-production plastic pellets show strong decreases in fulmars and in the gyre. • These data show that floating plastics rapidly disappear from the ocean surface. - Long term studies give evidence that reduced input of plastic debris into the ocean becomes rapidly visible. Floating plastics disappear to as-yet undetermined sinks

  12. Mainstream end-tidal carbon dioxide monitoring in the neonatal intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozycki, H J; Sysyn, G D; Marshall, M K; Malloy, R; Wiswell, T E

    1998-04-01

    Continuous noninvasive monitoring of arterial carbon dioxide (CO2) in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients would help clinicians avoid complications of hypocarbia and hypercarbia. End-tidal CO2 monitoring has not been used in this population to date, but recent technical advances and the introduction of surfactant therapy, which improves ventilation-perfusion matching, might improve the clinical utility of end-tidal monitoring. To determine the accuracy and precision of end-tidal CO2 monitoring in NICU patients. Nonrandomized recording of simultaneous end-tidal and arterial CO2 pairs. Two university NICUs. Forty-five newborn infants receiving mechanical ventilation who had indwelling arterial access, and a predefined subsample of infants who were NICU patients is as accurate as capillary or transcutaneous monitoring but less precise than the latter. It may be useful for trending or for screening patients for abnormal arterial CO2 values.

  13. Ten major trends now emerging in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naisbitt, J.

    1978-01-01

    Using a special analytical procedure for tracking and assessing events reported in the nation's newspapers, the Center for Policy Process has identified ten emerging trends in the United States that are having a major impact on all our lives and on all businesses and industries--and especially on the electric utility industry. Although the trends may move in contradictory directions and have different degrees of significance, all have been carefully monitored for a considerable length of time. All are firmly established--and are not to be viewed as the momentary interests of certain radical elements of the population. The ten trends are: the fast-emerging clash between nuclear fuel and coal as an environmental health issue; displacement of racism and sexism by ''ageism'' as society's most prominent anti-discrimination preoccupation, and the complete elimination soon of mandatory retirement; in government and technology, the phenomenon of ''appropriate scale'' replacing economies of scale, emergence of single-issue political organizations; coming-of-age of the recycling ethic; emergence of ''access to capital'' as the new equity issue--the new rights issue; continuing shift from centralization to decentralization; movement of society in the dual directions of high technology/high touch; business' increasing involvement with the well-established accountability trend; and shift from a representative democracy to a participatory democracy--this profound change in American democracy actually began about a decade or so ago.

  14. Spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in Belgian cities: A wastewater-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boogaerts, Tim; Covaci, Adrian; Kinyua, Juliet; Neels, Hugo; van Nuijs, Alexander L N

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, scientific evidence has emerged that wastewater-based epidemiology can deliver complementary information concerning the use of different substances of abuse. In this study, the potential of wastewater-based epidemiology in monitoring spatial and temporal trends in alcohol consumption in different populations in Belgium has been examined. Concentrations of ethyl sulphate, a minor Phase-II metabolite of ethanol, in 163 influent wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants in Belgium in the period 2013-2015 were measured with liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry and used to estimate alcohol consumption. The highest levels of alcohol consumption were detected in the metropoles Antwerp and Brussels compared to smaller villages. Annual variations were detected, with a higher alcohol consumption measured in 2013 compared with 2014. The weekly pattern showed a clear week and weekend difference in alcohol use, with intermediate levels on Monday and Friday. The results were extrapolated and a use of 5.6L pure alcohol per year per inhabitant aged 15+ has been estimated in Belgium. The comparison with available information on drinking habits of the Belgian population further demonstrated the usefulness of the wastewater-based epidemiology approach. This is the largest wastewater-based epidemiology study monitoring alcohol consumption to date, demonstrating that objective and quick information on spatio-temporal trends in alcohol consumption on a local and (inter)national scale can be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  16. Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

    2014-01-01

    We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

  17. Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

  18. How abnormal is binge eating? 18-Year time trends in population prevalence and burden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchison, D; Touyz, S; González-Chica, D A; Stocks, N; Hay, P

    2017-08-01

    Although findings suggest that binge eating is becoming increasingly normative, the 'clinical significance' of this behaviour at a population level remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the time trends in binge-eating prevalence and burden over 18 years. Six cross-sectional face-to-face surveys of the Australian adult population were conducted in 1998, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015 (N total = 15 126). Data were collected on demographics, 3-month prevalence of objective binge eating (OBE), health-related quality of life, days out of role, and distress related to OBE. The prevalence of OBE increased six-fold from 1998 (2.7%) to 2015 (13.0%). Health-related quality of life associated with OBE improved from 1998 to 2015, where it more closely approximated population norms. Days out of role remained higher among participants who reported OBE, although decreased over time. Half of participants who reported weekly (56.6%) and twice-weekly (47.1%) OBE reported that they were not distressed by this behaviour. However, the presence of distress related to OBE in 2015 was associated with greater health-related quality-of-life impairment. As the prevalence of binge eating increases over time, associated disability has been decreasing. Implications for the diagnosis of disorders associated with binge eating are discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Trends in monitoring patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Springborg, J B; Frederiksen, H-J; Eskesen, V

    2005-01-01

    After aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), the clinical outcome depends upon the primary haemorrhage and a number of secondary insults in the acute post-haemorrhagic period. Some secondary insults are potentially preventable but prevention requires prompt recognition of cerebral or systemic...... implemented monitoring system provides answers but it also raises valuable new questions challenging our current understanding of the brain injury after SAH....... complications. Currently, several neuro-monitoring techniques are available; this review describes the most frequently used techniques and discusses indications for their use, and their value in diagnosis and prognosis. None of the techniques, when considered in isolation, has proved sufficient after SAH...... with the conventional monitoring systems, for example intracranial pressure measurements, transcranial Doppler ultrasound and modern neuro-imaging, direct assessment of biochemical markers by intracerebral microdialysis is promising in the advancement of neurointensive care of patients with SAH. A successfully...

  20. Navigating from the heights of technical rigour to the swampy reality: Lessons from New Zealand in population health outcomes monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Wren

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The objective of this paper is to describe and discuss two documents produced by the New Zealand Ministry of Health concerning the monitoring of outcomes of public health programs. The New Zealand Government is increasingly expecting planners and managers of publicly funded services to shift their focus from the delivery of ‘outputs’ towards achievement of ‘outcomes’. Intervention logic models and outcomes monitoring are promoted by central government agencies as suitable management methods for implementing the change. [1-3]

    Methods: To help managers design and implement comprehensive, effective and measurable population health programmes the Ministry of Health recently published two guidance documents. The first document provided guidance about how to plan programmes using a generic logic model approach.[4] The second set out in detail a process on how to monitor population health programmes.[5] The intent of the documents was to help managers navigate between the heights of technical rigour and the swamps of reality in the delivery of population health programmes.[6]

    Results: A number of issues and implications for how population health programmes are planned monitored and performance assessed have been identified by the guidance documents. Issues include the problem of small numbers, understanding the difference between outcomes monitoring and traditional forms of evaluation, and outcomes monitoring being seen as a tool for punitive performance management rather than ‘continuous programme improvement’. Implications include more time spent on the design of programmes. Planners will need to focus upon better sequencing of activities, setting more specific and time limited goals, and to be more informed about how to use research to inform the selection of interventions.

    Conclusions: The guidance documents promoted by

  1. Demographic Subgroup Trends among Adolescents in the Use of Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2013. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 81

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.; Miech, Richard A.

    2014-01-01

    This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup trends for U.S. secondary school students in a series of figures and tables. It supplements two of four annual monographs from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, namely the "Overview of Key Findings" and "Volume I: Secondary School Students." MTF is funded by the…

  2. Estimation of radionuclide releases in atmosphere from Cernavoda NPP based on continuous gaseous effluent monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobric, E.; Murgoci, S.; Popescu, I.; Ibadula, R.

    2001-01-01

    Monitoring of gaseous effluents from Cernavoda NPP is performed to assess the environmental impact of the plant operation. The results of the monitoring program are used to evaluate the population doses in order to ensure that the emissions of radionuclides in air are below regulatory limits and radiation doses are maintained ALARA. It complements, but is independent from the Operational Environmental Monitoring Program for Cernavoda NPP. Gaseous effluent monitors provide continuous indication of the radioactivity content in atmospheric emissions. Except for noble gases, these monitors also collect samples for later detailed analysis in the station Health Physics Laboratory. This paper presents the main equipment and the results of the gaseous effluents monitoring program in order to assess the impact of Cernavoda NPP operation and to predict the future releases as function of radionuclides concentrations in CANDU systems, based on the identified trends.(author)

  3. Trends in Clinical Diagnoses of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever among American Indians, 2001–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folkema, Arianne M.; Holman, Robert C.; McQuiston, Jennifer H.; Cheek, James E.

    2012-01-01

    American Indians are at greater risk for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) than the general U.S. population. The epidemiology of RMSF among American Indians was examined by using Indian Health Service inpatient and outpatient records with an RMSF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis. For 2001–2008, 958 American Indian patients with clinical diagnoses of RMSF were reported. The average annual RMSF incidence was 94.6 per 1,000,000 persons, with a significant increasing incidence trend from 24.2 in 2001 to 139.4 in 2008 (P = 0.006). Most (89%) RMSF hospital visits occurred in the Southern Plains and Southwest regions, where the average annual incidence rates were 277.2 and 49.4, respectively. Only the Southwest region had a significant increasing incidence trend (P = 0.005), likely linked to the emergence of brown dog ticks as an RMSF vector in eastern Arizona. It is important to continue monitoring RMSF infection to inform public health interventions that target RMSF reduction in high-risk populations. PMID:22232466

  4. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  5. NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

  6. Changing trends of hepatitis b seromarkers amongst pakistani population: a laboratory-based review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zafar, A.; Khan, E.; Khan, M.S.; Moiz, B.; Jafri, W.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To study the changing trends of hepatitis B markers tested at Aga Khan University Hospital clinical laboratory according to the internationally recognised classification of hepatitis B profile. Methods: The retrospective study involved analysis of laboratory records of hepatitis B profiles of all patients collected from January 2001 to December 2008 at the Aga Khan University Hospital's clinical laboratory. Patients with complete profile tested were categorised according to the Centre for Diseases Control classification of hepatitis B profile. SPSS 16 was used for statistical analysis. Results: A total of 185,825 patients had serological markers for hepatitis B tested. Mean-age of reactive hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) patients was 30+-12.5 years. HBsAg reactivity was significantly higher in males than females (34% vs 12%; p <0.0001). HBsAg showed a slight decline in the percentage reactivity during the 8-year study period, while a gradual increase in hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) reactivity was observed. Of the total, 23% patients belonged to the 'susceptible to infection' category; 39% patients were classified as 'chronically-ill'; 12% patients were categorised as 'immune due to hepatitis B vaccination'. 3% patients were classed as 'acutely infected'. Overall, samples received from Peshawar, Quetta and Larkana showed very high reactivity rates. Conclusion: The study substantiated the general perception that levels of HBsAg is showing a decreasing trend, while levels of HBsAb are increasing perhaps due to better vaccination of population. (author)

  7. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  8. Dealing with incomplete and variable detectability in multi-year, multi-site monitoring of ecological populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    An ecological monitoring program should be viewed as a component of a larger framework designed to advance science and/or management, rather than as a stand-alone activity. Monitoring targets (the ecological variables of interest; e.g. abundance or occurrence of a species) should be set based on the needs of that framework (Nichols and Williams 2006; e.g. Chapters 2–4). Once such monitoring targets are set, the subsequent step in monitoring design involves consideration of the field and analytical methods that will be used to measure monitoring targets with adequate accuracy and precision. Long-term monitoring programs will involve replication of measurements over time, and possibly over space; that is, one location or each of multiple locations will be monitored multiple times, producing a collection of site visits (replicates). Clearly this replication is important for addressing spatial and temporal variability in the ecological resources of interest (Chapters 7–10), but it is worth considering how this replication can further be exploited to increase the effectiveness of monitoring. In particular, defensible monitoring of the majority of animal, and to a lesser degree plant, populations and communities will generally require investigators to account for imperfect detection (Chapters 4, 18). Raw indices of population state variables, such as abundance or occupancy (sensu MacKenzie et al. 2002), are rarely defensible when detection probabilities are failing to correct for differences in detection, resulting in indices that have an unknown relationship to the parameters of interest (e.g. Nichols 1992, Anderson 2001, MacKenzie et al. 2002, Williams et al. 2002, Anderson 2003, White 2005, Kéry and Schmidt 2008). While others have argued that indices may be preferable in some cases due to the challenges associated with estimating detection probabilities (e.g. McKelvey and Pearson 2001, Johnson 2008), we do not attempt to resolve this debate here. Rather, we are

  9. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  10. Adult Brain Cancer in the U.S. Black Population: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Analysis of Incidence, Survival, and Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriel, Abigail; Batey, Jason; Capogreco, Joseph; Kimball, David; Walters, Andy; Tubbs, R. Shane; Loukas, Marios

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite much epidemiological research on brain cancer in the United States, the etiology for the various subtypes remains elusive. The black population in the United States currently experiences lower incidence but higher survival rates when compared to other races. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the trends in incidence and survival for the 6 most common primary brain tumors in the black population of the United States. Material/Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, an...

  11. The Impact of Future Demographic Trends in Europe, 2005-2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Kupiszewski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to examine the future of populations within the Council of Europe member states, identify the main trends and discuss their policy implications. The analysis focuses on the impact that future demographic trends will have on the following social domains: education, the labour market, health care and care of the elderly and social protection. The study aims to be policy-oriented and to provide an overview of future demographic trends for 2005-2050 in the Council of Europe member states, as well as presenting an analysis related to selected policies and an interpretation of these trends. The analysis of population dynamics in the coming 45 years is based on the United Nations population projection of 2005.

  12. Population and harvest trends of big game and small game species: a technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis H. Flather; Michael S. Knowles; Stephen J. Brady

    2009-01-01

    This technical document supports the Forest Service's requirement to assess the status of renewable natural resources as mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA). It updates past reports on national and regional trends in population and harvest estimates for species classified as big game and small game. The trends...

  13. Nonlinear Cointegration Approach for Condition Monitoring of Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Zolna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of trends and removal of undesired trends from operational/process parameters in wind turbines is important for their condition monitoring. This paper presents the homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration for the solution to this problem. The cointegration approach used leads to stable variances in cointegration residuals. The adapted Breusch-Pagan test procedure is developed to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity in cointegration residuals obtained from the nonlinear cointegration analysis. Examples using three different time series data sets—that is, one with a nonlinear quadratic deterministic trend, another with a nonlinear exponential deterministic trend, and experimental data from a wind turbine drivetrain—are used to illustrate the method and demonstrate possible practical applications. The results show that the proposed approach can be used for effective removal of nonlinear trends form various types of data, allowing for possible condition monitoring applications.

  14. Off-site environmental monitoring report: radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.D.; Black, S.C.; Grossman, R.F.; Patzer, R.G.; Smith, D.D.

    1985-04-01

    This report covers the routine radiation monitoring activities conducted by the Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas in areas which may be affected by nuclear testing programs of the Department of Energy. This monitoring is conducted to document compliance with standards, to identify trends in environmental radiation, and to provide such information to the public. It summarizes these activities for calendar year 1984. No radioactivity attributable to NTS activities was detectable offsite by the monitoring networks. Using recorded wind data and Pasquill stability categories, atmospheric dispersion calculations based on reported radionuclides releases yield an estimated dose of 1 x 10 -3 person-rem to the population within 80 km of the Nevada Test Site during 1983. World-wide fallout of Kr-85, Sr-90, Cs-137, and Pu-239 detected by the monitoring networks would cause maximum exposure to an individual of less than 0.6 mrem per year. Plutonium in air was still detectable along with krypton-85, which continued its gradual increase, as has been reported previously. Cesium and strontium in air were near their detection limits. An occasional net exposure to offsite residents has been detected by the TLD network. On investigation, the cause of such net exposures has been due to personal habits or occupational activities, not to NTS activities. 32 refs., 36 figs., 27 tabs

  15. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) monitoring techniques in the Sacramento--San Joaquin Estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, D.E.

    1977-01-01

    Various methods have been used to monitor the striped bass population in the Sacramento--San Joaquin Estuary. Sampling in the spring with towed plankton nets has provided an adequate description of spawning time and area, but this sampling has not adequately measured egg standing crops and larva and post-larva mortality rates. Tow-net sampling effectively measures the abundance of young in midsummer. A midwater-trawl survey is satisfactory for measuring the abundance of young in the fall but not in the winter. Techniques have not been fully evaluated for monitoring one-year-old bass. Catch-per-unit-effort data from sportfishing party boats were useful for monitoring two-year-olds, until a change in angling regulations increased recruitment age. The Petersen method and indices developed from party-boat catches are the best methods for monitoring bass that are three years old and older. Long-term trends in catch can be monitored through postcard surveys and party-boat catches

  16. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  17. Radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-05-01

    This report describes the Offsite Radiation Safety Program conducted during 1989 by the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas (EMSL-LV). This laboratory operates an environmental radiation monitoring program in the region surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at former test sites in Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Mexico. The surveillance program is designed to measure levels, and trends of radioactivity, if present, in the environment surrounding testing areas to ascertain whether the testing is in compliance with existing radiation protection standards, and to take action to protect the health and well being of the public in the event of any accidental release of radioactive contaminants. Offsite levels of radiation and radioactivity are assessed by sampling milk, water, and air; by deploying thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and using pressurized ion chambers (PICs); and by biological monitoring of both animals and humans. To implement protective actions, provide immediate radiation monitoring, and obtain environmental samples rapidly after any release of radioactivity, personnel with mobile monitoring equipment are placed in areas downwind from the test site prior to each test. Comparison of the measurements and sample analysis results with background levels and with appropriate standards and regulations indicated that there was no radioactivity detected offsite by the various EPA monitoring networks and no exposure above natural background to the population living in the vicinity of the NTS that could be attributed to NTS activities. Trends were evaluated in the Noble Gas and Tritium, Milk Surveillance, TLD, and PIC networks, and the Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Program. 35 refs., 68 figs., 32 tabs

  18. Radiation monitoring around United States nuclear test areas, calendar year 1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-05-01

    This report describes the Offsite Radiation Safety Program conducted during 1989 by the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory-Las Vegas (EMSL-LV). This laboratory operates an environmental radiation monitoring program in the region surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at former test sites in Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Mexico. The surveillance program is designed to measure levels, and trends of radioactivity, if present, in the environment surrounding testing areas to ascertain whether the testing is in compliance with existing radiation protection standards, and to take action to protect the health and well being of the public in the event of any accidental release of radioactive contaminants. Offsite levels of radiation and radioactivity are assessed by sampling milk, water, and air; by deploying thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and using pressurized ion chambers (PICs); and by biological monitoring of both animals and humans. To implement protective actions, provide immediate radiation monitoring, and obtain environmental samples rapidly after any release of radioactivity, personnel with mobile monitoring equipment are placed in areas downwind from the test site prior to each test. Comparison of the measurements and sample analysis results with background levels and with appropriate standards and regulations indicated that there was no radioactivity detected offsite by the various EPA monitoring networks and no exposure above natural background to the population living in the vicinity of the NTS that could be attributed to NTS activities. Trends were evaluated in the Noble Gas and Tritium, Milk Surveillance, TLD, and PIC networks, and the Long-Term Hydrological Monitoring Program. 35 refs., 68 figs., 32 tabs.

  19. [History and present status of butterfly monitoring in Europe and related development strategies for China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Li-Jun; Xu, Hai-Gen; Guan, Jian-Ling

    2013-09-01

    Butterfly is an important bio-indicator for biodiversity monitoring and ecological environment assessment. In Europe, the species composition, population dynamics, and distribution pattern of butterfly have been monitored for decades, and many long-term monitoring schemes with international effects have been implemented. These schemes are aimed to assess the regional and national variation trends of butterfly species abundance, and to analyze the relationships of this species abundance with habitat, climate change, and other environmental factors, providing basic data for researching, protecting, and utilizing butterfly resources and predicting environmental changes, and playing important roles in the division of butterfly' s threatened level, the formulation of related protection measures, and the protection and management of ecological environment. This paper reviewed the history and present status of butterfly monitoring in Europe, with the focus on the well-known long-term monitoring programs, e. g. , the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and the Germany and European Union Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Some specific proposals for conducting butterflies monitoring in China were suggested.

  20. Long-term monitored catchments in Norway - a hydrologic and chemical evaluation -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lydersen, E

    1994-10-20

    About 20 years ago, long-term monitoring of small Norwegian catchments were initiated, because of increasing concern regarding acidification of surface water and damage to fish populations. Long range transported air pollutants were considered to be the major acidification factor and so both precipitation and runoff chemistry were included in the monitoring programme. This report contains a thorough hydrologic and chemical evaluation of precipitation and runoff water separately as well as relationships between precipitation chemistry and runoff chemistry. The data comes from four catchments: Birkenes, Storgama, Langtjern and Kaarvatn. The chapters are (1) Sampling and analysis, (2) Description of the catchments, (3) Hydrology, (4) Chemistry, with subsections on wet deposition, dry deposition, concentration of marine compounds with distance from the sea, acid precipitation, runoff chemistry, sulphuric acid and other acidifying compounds, acid neutralizing capacity, and aluminium, (5) Time trends in precipitation and runoff chemistry. The time trends are evaluated in relation to the declining emissions of sulphur compounds in Europe since the late seventies. 134 refs., 213 figs., 54 tabs.

  1. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peixia Cheng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs. Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural, and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China.Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10 since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1 Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13. (2 Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3 Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for

  2. Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Peixia; Yin, Peng; Ning, Peishan; Wang, Lijun; Cheng, Xunjie; Liu, Yunning; Schwebel, David C; Liu, Jiangmei; Qi, Jinlei; Hu, Guoqing; Zhou, Maigeng

    2017-07-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China. Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other

  3. New trends in structural health monitoring

    CERN Document Server

    Güemes, J

    2013-01-01

    Experts actively working in structural health monitoring and control techniques present the current research, areas of application and tendencies for the future of this technology, including various design issues involved. Examples using some of the latest hardware and software tools, experimental data from small scale laboratory demonstrators and measurements made on real structures illustrate the book. It will be a reference for professionals and students in the areas of engineering, applied natural sciences and engineering management.

  4. Mapping trends of large and medium size carnivores of conservation interest in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Cazacu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We analysed yearly estimates of population size data during 2001-2012 for five carnivores species of conservation interest (Ursus arctos, Canis lupus, Lynx lynx, Felis silvestris and Canis aureus. Population size estimations were done by the game management authorities and integrated by the competent authorities on the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. Trends in data were detected using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test was chosen considering the short length of data series and its usefulness for non-normal distributed data. The trend was tested at three spatial scales: game management units (n=1565, biogeographical region (n=5 and national. Trends depicted for each game management unit were plotted using ArcGIS, resulting species trend distribution maps. For the studied period increasing population trends were observed for Ursus arctos, Canis lupus, Canis aureus and Lynx lynx, while for Felis silvestris there was no trend recorded. Such an analysis in especially useful for conservation proposes, game management and reporting obligations under article 17 of the EC Habitat Directive, using population trend as a proxy for population dynamics. We conclude that the status of the five carnivore species is favourable during the study period.

  5. SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING FOR NON - LINEAR TREND IN MILK YIELD DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Tanuj Kumar Pandey; Vinod Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The present paper utilizes systematic sampling procedures for milk yield data exhibiting some non-linear trends. The best fitted mathematical forms of non-linear trend present in the milk yield data are obtained and the expressions of average variances of the estimators of population mean under simple random, usual systematic and modified systematic sampling procedures have been derived for populations showing non-linear trend. A comparative study is made among the three sampli...

  6. Guidance on the implementation of a risk based safety performance monitoring system for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewell, R.T.; Kuritzky, A.S.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    1997-05-01

    The principal objective of the present study is to review and evaluate existing Performance Indicator (PI) monitoring programs, and to develop and demonstrate an overall PSA-based methodology and framework for the monitoring and use of risk-based PIs and SIs (Safety Indicator), that would enable: Identification of trends and patterns in safety performance at a specific plant and a population of plants; Assessment of the significance of the trends and patterns; Identification of precursors of accident sequences and safety reductions; Identification of the most critical functional areas of concern, especially as they relate to a defense-in-depth safety philosophy; Comparison of safety performance trends at a plant with those at comparable plants; Incorporation of the PIs and SIs into a risk- and performance-based decision process. To support the overall project objective, it is important that information needs and data collection procedures are clearly outlined. Of key significance in this regard is the premise that a performance monitoring system should not be burdened by an excessive number of low-level PIs that may have only a peripheral relationship to safety. Other supporting objectives of the study include: To identify and discuss other issues pertaining to the practical implementation of a safety performance monitoring system (outlining the databases and algorithms needed); and to demonstrate implementation of the preliminary guidance for monitoring and use of the selected set of PIs and SIs, within the proposed framework, via application to the operating history of a NPP having a PSA and readily available event data

  7. The U.S. mussel watch : nationwide geographic and long-term trends of PAHs in coastal mussels and oysters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, A.J.; Lauenstein, G.C.; O'Connor, T.P.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of fishery evaluation criteria following oil spills in lakes, rivers and seas was discussed. This paper focused on the problem of developing criteria for closing and opening fisheries during responses to oil spills. Closures are implemented to prevent the public from consuming toxic chemicals such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and to prevent tainted sea food products from entering the marketplace. A U.S. nationwide program, called Mussel Watch Project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Status and Trends (NS and T) Program, was established to monitor spatial distribution and temporal trends of contaminant concentrations at over 200 coastal and estuarian sites around the U.S. The program has analyzed concentrations of 44 PAHs. The trends of PAHs was compared with other pollutants. An assessment of the extent to which PAHs in mollusks reflect population density was discussed. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  8. Cardiovascular Disease Susceptibility and Resistance in Circumpolar Inuit Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tvermosegaard, Maria; Dahl-Petersen, Inger K; Nielsen, Nina Odgaard; Bjerregaard, Peter; Jørgensen, Marit Eika

    2015-09-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major public health issue in indigenous populations in the Arctic. These diseases have emerged concomitantly with profound social changes over the past 60 years. The aim of this study was to summarize the literature on CVD risk among Arctic Inuit. Literature on prevalence, incidence, and time trends for CVD and its risk factors in Arctic Inuit populations was reviewed. Most evidence supports a similar incidence of coronary heart disease and a higher incidence of cerebrovascular disease among Arctic Inuit than seen in western populations. Factors that may increase CVD risk include aging of the population, genetic susceptibility, and a rapid increase in obesity, diabetes, and hypertension in parallel with decreasing physical activity and deterioration of the lipid profile. In contrast, and of great importance, there has been a decrease in smoking and alcohol intake (at least documented in Greenland), and contaminant levels are declining. Although there have been marked socioeconomic and dietary changes, it remains unsolved and to some extent controversial how this may have influenced cardiovascular risk among Arctic Inuit. The increase in life expectancy, in combination with improved prognosis for patients with manifest CVD, will inevitably lead to a large increase in absolute numbers of individuals affected by CVD in Arctic Inuit populations, exacerbated by the rise in most CVD risk factors over the past decades. For preventive purposes and for health care planning, it is crucial to carefully monitor disease incidence and trends in risk factors in these vulnerable Arctic populations. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Monitoring Population Evolution in China Using Time-Series DMSP/OLS Nightlight Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisi Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and detailed monitoring of population distribution and evolution is of great significance in formulating a population planning strategy in China. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS nighttime lights time-series (NLT image products offer a good opportunity for detecting the population distribution owing to its high correlation to human activities. However, their detection capability is greatly limited owing to a lack of in-flight calibration. At present, the synergistic use of systematically-corrected NLT products and population spatialization is rarely applied. This work proposed a methodology to improve the application precision and versatility of NLT products, explored a feasible approach to quantitatively spatialize the population to grid units of 1 km × 1 km , and revealed the spatio-temporal characteristics of population distribution from 2000 to 2010. Results indicated that, (1 after inter-calibration, geometric, incompatibility and discontinuity corrections, and adjustment based on vegetation information, the incompatibility and discontinuity of NTL products were successfully solved. Accordingly, detailed actual residential areas and luminance differences between the urban core and the peripheral regions could be obtained. (2 The population spatialization method could effectively acquire population information at per km 2 with high accuracy and exhibit more details in the evolution of population distribution. (3 Obvious differences in spatio-temporal characteristics existed in four economic regions, from the aspects of population distribution and dynamics, as well as population-weighted centroids. The eastern region was the most populous with the largest increased magnitude, followed by the central, northeastern, and western regions. The population-weighted centroids of the eastern, western, and northeastern regions moved along the southwest direction, while the population

  10. Ankle injuries in the Netherlands : Trends over 10-25 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemler, Ellen; van de Port, I.; Valkenberg, H.; Hoes, A. W.; Backx, F. J G

    2015-01-01

    Ankle injuries are a common health problem; data on ankle injury rates and time trends in the population at large are scarce. Our aim was to investigate the incidence of and time trends in population-based and emergency department-treated ankle injuries related to sports activities and other

  11. Monitoring the establishment and prevalence of the fungal entomopathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in two Lymantria dispar L. populations in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Pilarska; M. McManus; P. Pilarska; G. Georgiev; P. Mirchev; A. Linde

    2005-01-01

    The establishment and prevalence of the entomopathogenic fungus Entomophaga maimaiga, (Zygomycetes, Entomophthorales), introduced into two gypsy moth populations in Bulgaria, was monitored during 2000-2004. In the Karlovo Region population, where E. maimaiga was introduced in 1999, the fungus was recovered every year and the...

  12. Time trends in social differences in nutrition habits of a Lithuanian population: 1994-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriaucioniene Vilma

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the post-communist transition period, political, economic, and social changes affected the lifestyles of the Lithuanian population, including their nutritional habits. However, people of lower socio-economic position were more vulnerable to these changes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the trends in selected food habits of the Lithuanian adult population by their level of education and place of residence from 1994 to 2010. Methods The data were obtained from nine biannual cross-sectional postal surveys of Lithuanian health behaviours, beginning in 1994. Each survey used a randomly selected nationally representative sample of 3000 inhabitants aged 20-64 drawn from the population register. In total, 7358 men and 9796 women participated in these surveys. Questions about food consumption were included within all health behaviour questionnaires. Results During the transition period, use of vegetable oil in cooking and the frequency of consumption of fresh vegetables increased, use of butter on bread decreased, and the proportion of women drinking high-fat milk declined. Lithuanians with higher education reported more frequent use of vegetable oil in cooking as well as daily consumption of fresh vegetables than those with a lower level of education. Consumption of high-fat milk was inversely associated with educational background. In addition, the proportion of persons spreading butter on bread increased with higher education level. The greatest urban-rural difference was observed in high-fat milk consumption. The increase in the use of vegetable oil in cooking, and the reduction of spreading butter on bread was more evident among less educated and rural inhabitants. Meanwhile, a greater proportion of the rural population, compared to urban, reduced their use of butter on bread. Daily consumption of fresh vegetables increased most among highly educated Lithuanians. Conclusions The data from our study indicate

  13. Adelie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon N Jarman

    Full Text Available The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  14. Prevalence, co-occurrence and decennial trends of family violence toward children in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clément, Marie-Ève; Chamberland, Claire; Bouchard, Camil

    2016-03-14

    In Quebec, three population-based surveys have documented the prevalence of psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence toward children. This paper aims to present 1) the results of the 2012 survey with regard to the frequency and annual prevalence of violence, and 2) the trends in all three forms of violence between 1999 and 2012 according to children's age. The three independent surveys were all conducted through telephone interviews in 1999, 2004 and 2012 by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec and reached a total sample of 9,646 children living with a mother figure. Psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence were measured using the Parent Child Conflict Tactics Scales. The results show that repeated psychological aggression, after having increased between 1999 (48%) and 2004 (53%), slightly decreased in 2012 (49%). Minor physical violence decreased steadily between 1999 and 2012, from 48% to 35%, and severe physical violence remained stable (6%). These three forms of violence varied by the age category of the children. Finally, the results show that the co-occurrence of the use of physical and psychological violence remained high in all three surveys. The results are consistent with trends in North America and are discussed in terms of services to support families.

  15. An integrated sampling and analysis approach for improved biodiversity monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWan, Amielle A.; Zipkin, Elise F.

    2010-01-01

    Successful biodiversity conservation requires high quality monitoring data and analyses to ensure scientifically defensible policy, legislation, and management. Although monitoring is a critical component in assessing population status and trends, many governmental and non-governmental organizations struggle to develop and implement effective sampling protocols and statistical analyses because of the magnitude and diversity of species in conservation concern. In this article we describe a practical and sophisticated data collection and analysis framework for developing a comprehensive wildlife monitoring program that includes multi-species inventory techniques and community-level hierarchical modeling. Compared to monitoring many species individually, the multi-species approach allows for improved estimates of individual species occurrences, including rare species, and an increased understanding of the aggregated response of a community to landscape and habitat heterogeneity. We demonstrate the benefits and practicality of this approach to address challenges associated with monitoring in the context of US state agencies that are legislatively required to monitor and protect species in greatest conservation need. We believe this approach will be useful to regional, national, and international organizations interested in assessing the status of both common and rare species.

  16. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    OpenAIRE

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. METHODS: National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. RESULTS: C...

  17. Population trends and current status of the endangered Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocaspana Rafel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The status of Pyrenean sculpin Cottus hispaniolensis was assessed in the Spanish part of the Garonne drainage on the basis of its distribution and abundance from 2001 to 2016. Population trends showed a progressive reduction in range extension and density, exacerbated by a severe spate occurred in 2013. However, C. hispaniolensis was resilient to this natural disturbance by compensating for mortality with increasing recruitment. Both occurrence and density of Pyrenean sculpin showed a positive correlation with coarse substrates. Riverine habitat deterioration, mainly channelization, presence of dams and flow regulation are the main factors threatening sculpin populations. Several management measures are proposed.

  18. 46-Year Trends in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality in the United States, 1968 to 2013: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Eric Y; Shaheen, Magda; Woo, Jennifer M P; Mercer, Neil; Li, Ning; McCurdy, Deborah K; Karlamangla, Arun; Singh, Ram R

    2017-12-05

    No large population-based studies have been done on systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) mortality trends in the United States. To identify secular trends and population characteristics associated with SLE mortality. Population-based study using a national mortality database and census data. United States. All U.S. residents, 1968 through 2013. Joinpoint trend analysis of annual age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for SLE and non-SLE causes by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region; multiple logistic regression analysis to determine independent associations of demographic variables and period with SLE mortality. There were 50 249 SLE deaths and 100 851 288 non-SLE deaths from 1968 through 2013. Over this period, the SLE ASMR decreased less than the non-SLE ASMR, with a 34.6% cumulative increase in the ratio of the former to the latter. The non-SLE ASMR decreased every year starting in 1968, whereas the SLE ASMR decreased between 1968 and 1975, increased between 1975 and 1999, and decreased thereafter. Similar patterns were seen in both sexes, among black persons, and in the South. However, statistically significant increases in the SLE ASMR did not occur among white persons over the 46-year period. Females, black persons, and residents of the South had higher SLE ASMRs and larger cumulative increases in the ratio of the SLE to the non-SLE ASMR (31.4%, 62.5%, and 58.6%, respectively) than males, other racial/ethnic groups, and residents of other regions, respectively. Multiple logistic regression showed independent associations of sex, race, and region with SLE mortality risk and revealed significant racial/ethnic differences in associations of SLE mortality with sex and region. Underreporting of SLE on death certificates may have resulted in underestimates of SLE ASMRs. Accuracy of coding on death certificates is difficult to ascertain. Rates of SLE mortality have decreased since 1968 but remain high relative to non-SLE mortality, and significant sex

  19. Demographic Trends in Germany and their Economic Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Rembrandt Scholz; Carsten Schröder

    2012-01-01

    The present paper explores demographic trends in Germany, as well as the determinants of these trends, and the economic implications of these demographic changes for the country. A detailed spatial analysis reveals substantial differences in the speed and intensity of the processes of population aging and population decline across the German regions. The results indicate that these processes are particularly pronounced in the state of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. As a new contribution to th...

  20. [Trends in the nutritional status of the Spanish population: results from the Catalan nutrition monitoring system (1992-2003)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serra Majem, Luis; Ribas Barba, Lourdes; Salvador Castell, Gemma; Roman Viñas, Blanca; Castell Abat, Conxa; Cabezas Peña, Carmen; Pastor Ferrer, Mari Cruz; Raidó Quintana, Blanca; Ngo de la Cruz, Joy; García Alvarez, Alicia; Serra Farró, Jaume; Salleras Sanmartí, Luis; Taradach Antoni, Plasencia

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the changes in the nutricional habits and nutricional status of the Catalan population over 10 years interval of the two Catalan Nutricional Surveys conducted in 1992-93 and 2002-03. 2641 individuals in 1992-93 and 2060 individuals in 2002-03 aged 10 to 75 years participated in the surveys. Two 24 hour recall, a food frequency questionnaire, and a general questionnaire with information on physical activity, knowledge and opinions on nutrition and supplements use were administered. Weight (Kg), height (cm) and waist circumference (WC) (cm) were measured. A subsample of the population underwent a biochemical evaluation. Total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, tryglicerides and beta-carotene, alpha-tocopherol and retinol were measured. A decrease in the consumption of fruit, vegetables, potatoes, meat and fish and an increase in the consumption of dairy products and fast food (in young individuals) were reported. An increase in the mean value of Body Mass Index (BMI) was observed among males, and an increase in WC mean value was observed in males and females. BMI value decreased in females (except among the younger ones). The prevalence of obesity increased among males (from 9.9% to 16.6%), but not in females. Both total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol decreased. A decrease was observed in the percentage of population with sedentary habits during leisure time. There is a need for an effective nutrition policy promoting healthy nutrition in accordance with the ongoing dietary guidelines.

  1. Thrombolytic therapeutic effect monitoring based on functional near-infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Boan; Wang, Pengbo; Li, Yaoxian; Gao, Yuan; Li, Ting

    2017-02-01

    Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is of serious mortality and morbidity, which often happens in inpatients and especially with the postoperative population [1]. The golden standard to diagnose DVT is venography, which relies on complicated imaging modalities requiring to be injected in a vein below the clot invasively and ionizing procedures that employing xray imaging to show where and how the DVT blocks. The near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is recently found to be an intriguing and potential method detecting DVT in clinics. It has been reported recently that employing NIRS to diagnose DVT. Arteriosclerosis obliterans (ASO), local extremities manifestations of systemic atherosclerosis, usually cause thrombosis and the reduction of distal blood flow. Thrombolytic therapy is to use exogenous activator to activate the dissolution system, which can dissolve intracoronary thrombus. Here we attempt to monitor the DVT and ASO patients during the whole procedure of thrombolytic treatment, then compare the data with those DVT and ASO patients did not take treatments and normal population. 8 DVT and 9 ASO patients and 12 normal subjects were recruited to take the measurements of concentration variation of oxy- and deoxy-hemoglobins (Δ[HbO2] and Δ[Hb]) by NIRS-based thrombosis monitor. Thereinto, 5 DVT and 6 ASO patients has taken the thrombolytic treatment, and the data for the periods before treatment, during treatment, and after treatment were extracted for analysis. We found that Δ[HbO2] fluctuates and even decreases in DVT and ASO patients. After the thrombolytic therapy, Δ[HbO2] increases about 45% and converge to the curves of normal subjects. And the Δ[Hb] emerges the similar trends, except for the rising trend in the beginning and the downtrend after thrombolytic therapy. The findings indicated NIRS has big potential in clinical monitoring of DVT and ASO patients and offering reliable and quantitative evaluation of thrombolytic therapy outcomes.

  2. Biannual monitoring of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility in Danish pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaiser, Caroline; Kristensen, Michael; Jensen, Karl-Martin Vagn

    2015-01-01

    ) were used. Pollen beetle populations were collected from 47 locations of Denmark with the help of the consultants and the farmers of the various regions in 2014. Further six populations were tested from Sweden and one from Germany. In the following year 2015, the monitoring continued to find out......The pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus F.) is a serious pest in the northern countries in oilseed rape. To determine the present level of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid susceptibility of Danish pollen beetle populations, standardized methods recommended by IRAC (Insecticide Resistance Action Committee......, if the resistance level which was determined in 2014 was stable in selected regions. Therefore pollen beetle populations from 14 locations in Denmark and five locations in Germany have been tested. For all tests the standardised methods for pyrethroids, the Adult-vial-test No. 11 and the Adult-vials-test No. 21...

  3. The Rising Prevalence and Incidence of Gout in British Columbia, Canada: Population-Based Trends from 2000-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Sharan K.; Aviña-Zubieta, J. Antonio; McCormick, Natalie; De Vera, Mary A.; Shojania, Kam; Sayre, Eric C.; Choi, Hyon K.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Gout is increasingly recognized as the most common form of inflammatory arthritis worldwide; however, no Canadian data on the disease burden of gout are available. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, prescription patterns, and comorbidity burden of gout in an entire Canadian province (British Columbia [BC]) over the last decade. Methods We utilized PopulationData BC, a province-wide database, to estimate temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of gout from 2000-2012, as well as according to age category. Annual estimates were age-sex-standardized using 2012 as the reference. We also examined annual trends in prescription patterns of common gout medications and assessed the comorbidity burden among gout patients in 2012. Results The 2012 prevalence of gout was 3.8% among the overall population, and the incidence rate was 2.9 per 1,000 person-years. Both gout prevalence and incidence increased substantially over the study period. This burden additionally increased according to age category, affecting over 8% of those ages 60-69 years in 2012. Approximately 22% of gout patients received a prescription for urate-lowering therapy (ULT), which remained stable over the study period, while colchicine and oral glucocorticoid use both increased modestly. By 2012, 72%, 52%, and 18% of prevalent gout patients had been diagnosed with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, respectively. Conclusions The burden of gout in BC, Canada, is substantial, and both the prevalence and incidence have increased over the past decade, while prescription of ULT remains low. These data support the need to improve gout prevention and care. PMID:28040245

  4. RadNet Radiological Air Monitoring Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott Telofski, J.; Askren, D.R.; Petko, Ch.M.; Fraass, R.G.

    2010-01-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency operates a national environmental radiation monitoring program called RadNet. RadNet monitors airborne particulates, precipitation, milk, and drinking water for radiation levels. The primary purpose of the original program in the 1950's and 1960's was to collect and analyze samples in various media to assess the effects of radioactive fallout from above-ground nuclear weapon testing. As above-ground testing diminished in the 1970's, the program, especially the air network, became critical in evaluating effects of other types of nuclear incidents, such as the nuclear reactor accident at Chernobyl, as well as monitoring trends in environmental radioactive contamination. The value of rapid data collection subsequent to such incidents led to the consideration of developing air monitors with radiation detectors and telecommunication equipment for real-time radiation measurement. The strengthened United States homeland security posture after 2001 led to production and installation of the current real-time RadNet air monitors. There are now 118 stationary, continuously operating air monitoring stations and 40 mobile air monitors for site specific monitoring. The stationary air monitors include radiation detectors, meteorological sensors, a high-volume air sampler, and communication devices for hourly data transfers. When unusual levels are detected, scientists download a full sodium iodide detector spectrum for analysis. The real-time data collected by RadNet stationary systems permit rapid identification and quantification of airborne nuclides with sufficient sensitivity to provide critical information to help determine protective actions. The data also may help to rapidly refine long-range radioactive plume models and estimate exposure to the population. This paper provides an overview of the airborne particulate monitoring conducted during above-ground nuclear weapon testing, summarizes the uses of data from the program

  5. 21 CFR 868.2450 - Lung water monitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Lung water monitor. 868.2450 Section 868.2450 Food... DEVICES ANESTHESIOLOGY DEVICES Monitoring Devices § 868.2450 Lung water monitor. (a) Identification. A lung water monitor is a device used to monitor the trend of fluid volume changes in a patient's lung by...

  6. Data Mining for Wearable Sensors in Health Monitoring Systems: A Review of Recent Trends and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Banaee

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed an increase in the development of wearable sensors for health monitoring systems. This increase has been due to several factors such as development in sensor technology as well as directed efforts on political and stakeholder levels to promote projects which address the need for providing new methods for care given increasing challenges with an aging population. An important aspect of study in such system is how the data is treated and processed. This paper provides a recent review of the latest methods and algorithms used to analyze data from wearable sensors used for physiological monitoring of vital signs in healthcare services. In particular, the paper outlines the more common data mining tasks that have been applied such as anomaly detection, prediction and decision making when considering in particular continuous time series measurements. Moreover, the paper further details the suitability of particular data mining and machine learning methods used to process the physiological data and provides an overview of the properties of the data sets used in experimental validation. Finally, based on this literature review, a number of key challenges have been outlined for data mining methods in health monitoring systems.

  7. Trend analysis of a tropical urban river water quality in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Faridah; M E, Alaa Eldin; Mohamed, Ibrahim

    2012-12-01

    Rivers play a significant role in providing water resources for human and ecosystem survival and health. Hence, river water quality is an important parameter that must be preserved and monitored. As the state of Selangor and the city of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, are undergoing tremendous development, the river is subjected to pollution from point and non-point sources. The water quality of the Klang River basin, one of the most densely populated areas within the region, is significantly degraded due to human activities as well as urbanization. Evaluation of the overall river water quality status is normally represented by a water quality index (WQI), which consists of six parameters, namely dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, ammoniacal nitrogen and pH. The objectives of this study are to assess the water quality status for this tropical, urban river and to establish the WQI trend. Using monthly WQI data from 1997 to 2007, time series were plotted and trend analysis was performed by employing the first-order autocorrelated trend model on the moving average values for every station. The initial and final values of either the moving average or the trend model were used as the estimates of the initial and final WQI at the stations. It was found that Klang River water quality has shown some improvement between 1997 and 2007. Water quality remains good in the upper stream area, which provides vital water sources for water treatment plants in the Klang valley. Meanwhile, the water quality has also improved in other stations. Results of the current study suggest that the present policy on managing river quality in the Klang River has produced encouraging results; the policy should, however, be further improved alongside more vigorous monitoring of pollution discharge from various point sources such as industrial wastewater, municipal sewers, wet markets, sand mining and landfills, as well as non-point sources such as

  8. MONITORING RESISTENSI POPULASI Plutella xylostella, L TERHADAP RESIDU EMAMEKTIN BENZOAT DI SENTRA PRODUKSI TANAMAN KUBIS PROPINSI JAWA TENGAH (Monitoring the Resistance of Plutella xylostella, L Population against Emamektin Benzoate Residues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udi Tarwotjo

    2014-10-01

    The objectives of this research to know the susceptible of P. xylostella population against emamectin benzoate insecticide, to monitor the resistance development of  P. xylostella against insecticides by determine of a diagnostic concentration, to determine the resistance mechanism of P. xylostella population. P. xylostella  was collected from central of Java areas from August 2011 up to September 2012.  The data from bioassay test was analized using Probit analysis to obtain LC50 value. The suseptibility test of the insect resulted show that Puasan population (Ngablak FR value was 3.97 and it was higher than  the Selo population (Cepogo. The concentration of 2443.99 ppb as selected diagnostic consentration. The test result of diagnostic concentration validation indicated that the value of calculated c2 of all the tested population was lower than the value of c2table. Therefore the diagnostic concentration of 2443.99 ppb can be used monitoring device of susceptible P, xylostella population. The resistance mechanism of the P. xylostella to the insecticide resulted from the increase in the detoxification rate in the insect body by MFO enzyme, but non-specific esterase enzyme activity did not reflect the esterase activity.

  9. Trend Analyses of Nitrate in Danish Groundwater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, B.; Thorling, L.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2012-01-01

    This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis of distribut......This presentation assesses the long-term development in the oxic groundwater nitrate concentration and nitrogen (N) loss due to intensive farming in Denmark. Firstly, up to 20-year time-series from the national groundwater monitoring network enable a statistically systematic analysis...... of distribution, trends and trend reversals in the groundwater nitrate concentration. Secondly, knowledge about the N surplus in Danish agriculture since 1950 is used as an indicator of the potential loss of N. Thirdly, groundwater recharge CFC (Chlorofluorocarbon) age determination allows linking of the first...... two dataset. The development in the nitrate concentration of oxic groundwater clearly mirrors the development in the national agricultural N surplus, and a corresponding trend reversal is found in groundwater. Regulation and technical improvements in the intensive farming in Denmark have succeeded...

  10. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivkov Milan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer needs. In this way, restaurateurs also contribute to greater customer satisfaction through quality service, which also has a positive effect on the restaurant and sales performance. Based on the results of the survey of 82 respondents, it was concluded that nutritional information shown within menus is of no importance, and also that such information does not affect the selection of dishes. Although nutritional information can be helpful in selecting more favourable and healthy food, neither men nor women care about it.

  11. Cadmium-related mortality and long-term secular trends in the cadmium body burden of an environmentally exposed population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrot, Tim S; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A; Staessen, Jan A

    2008-12-01

    Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. From 1985-1989 to 1991-1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p fashion without threshold.

  12. Complex Messages in Long-Term Monitoring of Regal Fritillary (Speyeria idalia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae in the State of Wisconsin, USA, 1988–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann B. Swengel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The regal fritillary (“regal” (Speyeria idalia is endangered in Wisconsin, USA, and declining and at risk range-wide. During 1988–2015, we surveyed 24 known regal sites and >100 areas of potential habitat in Wisconsin. We recorded 9037 individuals in 742.7 km on the peak survey per year at occupied sites. At six sites surveyed over 5–25 years, we found regal fritillaries in only one year, mostly in the latter half of the study. The three populations in the state with more favorable trends than the median had a never-burned refugium and/or infrequent fire management. They also all had substantial amounts of grazing, haying, and/or mowing managements. Sites with trends below the regional median trend had frequent or moderate fire management, and either a diminishing never-burned refugium or none at all. Regal populations at sites with ≤15 ha of grassland have become undetectable. Nonetheless, Hogback, a slightly larger than 15 ha site, had the most favorable trend, a significant increase. Nearly all Wisconsin Regal populations known before 1990 declined to consistent non-findability, even though these were conserved sites. More favorable trends at more recently discovered populations may be attributable to species-specific habitat management protocols implemented in the 1990s. Two sites with better than median long-term trends represent the longest consistent land ownership of known Regal populations in the state. This wide range of population outcomes illustrates both the need for long-term monitoring and the challenges of explaining the outcomes. Despite evidence of increasing Regal dispersal, this species remains very localized, indicating the unsuitability of the wider landscape as regal habitat. The number of significantly declining or no longer detectable populations in Wisconsin indicates an ever more adverse landscape for this species. Sites will need to have habitat characteristics that are ever more optimal in a wide range of

  13. Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

  14. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-09

    One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In

  15. Monitoring of the general population with an installed whole body counter at West Cumberland Hospital, Whitehaven

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boddy, K.; Francis, R.A.; Fenwick, J.D.; McKenzie, A.L.

    1989-03-01

    Body radioactivity in the general public has been measured in 395 volunteers in the Whitehaven area, using a whole-body monitor at West Cumberland Hospital. Between October 1986 and October 1987, estimates of total body radiocaesium in 240 volunteers ranged from below detection level to 1844 Bq with a mean of 415 Bq. From October 1987 until May 1988, a further 155 volunteers were monitored, and radiation levels ranged from 34 Bq to 685 Bq, with a mean of 257 Bq. In all volunteers, the ratio of body radiocaesium to body potassium, was well below unity. The average ratio of caesium-137 to caesium-134 from October 1987 to May 1988 was 3.28, corresponding to a ratio of 1.99 at the date of Chernobyl accident. This is consistent with a Chernobyl origin as the primary source for the radiocaesium. There were discernible, but not marked, trends of increasing body radiocaesium with milk and meat/fish consumption. (author)

  16. Trends in preterm birth in singleton deliveries in a Hong Kong population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hui, Annie S. Y.; Lao, Terence T.; Leung, Tak Yeung; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Sahota, Daljit S.

    2014-01-01

    To examine trends in preterm birth and its relationship with perinatal mortality in Hong Kong. In a retrospective cohort study, data were reviewed from singletons delivered between 1995 and 2011 at a university teaching hospital. Trends in preterm birth (between 24 and 36 weeks of pregnancy),

  17. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Breiwick, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos) have been studied for more than 40 years. Radio telemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006). Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year unduplicated also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear least squares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006), which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  18. Population Profile of the United States: 1976. Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 307.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

    This booklet summarizes population characteristics of the United States for 1976. A preliminary section of highlights reviews trends in five areas: population growth, social characteristics, population distribution, employment and income, and ethnic groups. The birth rate has declined, and the rate of childlessness has risen. This probably is due…

  19. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoë L. Fleming

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014 and trends (2000–2014 for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8; number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70, SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8. These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data. Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual. Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.

  20. The devil is in the details: trends in avoidable hospitalization rates by geography in British Columbia, 1990–2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penning Margaret J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Researchers and policy makers have focussed on the development of indicators to help monitor the success of regionalization, primary care reform and other health sector restructuring initiatives. Certain indicators are useful in examining issues of equity in service provision, especially among older populations, regardless of where they live. AHRs are used as an indicator of primary care system efficiency and thus reveal information about access to general practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to examine trends in avoidable hospitalization rates (AHRs during a period of time characterized by several waves of health sector restructuring and regionalization in British Columbia. AHRs are examined in relation to non-avoidable and total hospitalization rates as well as by urban and rural geography across the province. Methods Analyses draw on linked administrative health data from the province of British Columbia for 1990 through 2000 for the population aged 50 and over. Joinpoint regression analyses and t-tests are used to detect and describe trends in the data. Results Generally speaking, non-avoidable hospitalizations constitute the vast majority of hospitalizations in a given year (i.e. around 95% with AHRs constituting the remaining 5% of hospitalizations. Comparing rural areas and urban areas reveals that standardized rates of avoidable, non-avoidable and total hospitalizations are consistently higher in rural areas. Joinpoint regression results show significantly decreasing trends overall; lines are parallel in the case of avoidable hospitalizations, and lines are diverging for non-avoidable and total hospitalizations, with the gap between rural and urban areas being wider at the end of the time interval than at the beginning. Conclusion These data suggest that access to effective primary care in rural communities remains problematic in BC given that rural areas did not make any gains in AHRs relative to urban areas

  1. Population trends in substances used in deliberate self-poisoning leading to intensive care unit admissions from 2000 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskaran, Joanna; Johnson, Eric; Bolton, James M; Randall, Jason R; Mota, Natalie; Katz, Cara; Rigatto, Claudio; Skakum, Kurt; Roberts, Dan; Sareen, Jitender

    2015-12-01

    To examine population trends in serious intentional overdoses leading to admission to intensive care units (ICUs) in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Participants consisted of 1,011 individuals presenting to any of the 11 ICUs in Winnipeg, Canada, with deliberate self-poisonings from January 2000 to December 2010. Eight categories of substances were created: poisons, over-the-counter medications, prescription medications, tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), sedatives and antidepressants, anticonvulsants, lithium, and cocaine. Using the population of Winnipeg as the denominator, we conducted generalized linear model regression analyses using the Poisson distribution with log link to determine significance of linear trends in overdoses by substance over time. Women accounted for more presentations than men (57.8%), and the largest percentage of overdoses occurred among individuals in the 35- to 54-year age range. A large proportion of admissions were due to multiple overdoses, which accounted for 65.7% of ICU admissions. At the population level, multiple overdoses increased slightly over time (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.02, P < .05), whereas use of poisons (IRR = 0.897, P < .01), over-the-counter medications (IRR = 0.910, P < .01), nonpsychotropic prescription medications (IRR = 0.913, P < .01), anticonvulsants (IRR = 0.880, P < .01), and TCAs (IRR = 0.920, P < .01) decreased over time. Overdoses did not change over time as a function of age or sex. However, severity of overdoses classified by length of stay increased over time (IRR = 1.08, P < .01). It is important for physicians to exercise vigilance while prescribing medication, including being aware of other medications their patients have access to. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  2. Trends in the Breeding Population of Adélie Penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981–2012: A Coincidence of Climate and Resource Extraction Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyver, Phil O’B.; Barron, Mandy; Barton, Kerry J.; Ainley, David G.; Pollard, Annie; Gordon, Shulamit; McNeill, Stephen; Ballard, Grant; Wilson, Peter R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981–2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of −0.019 during 1981–2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001–2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then. PMID:24621601

  3. Monitoring of arrhythmia and sudden death in a hemodialysis population: The CRASH-ILR Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R Roberts

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that sudden cardiac death (SCD contributes around 50% of cardiovascular and 27% of all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients. The true burden of arrhythmias and arrhythmic deaths in this population, however, remains poorly characterised. Cardio Renal Arrhythmia Study in Hemodialysis (CRASH-ILR is a prospective, implantable loop recorder single centre study of 30 established hemodialysis patients and one of the first to provide long-term ambulatory ECG monitoring.30 patients (60% male aged 68±12 years receiving hemodialysis for 45±40 months with varied etiology (diabetes 37%, hypertension 23% and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF 55±8% received a Reveal XT implantable loop recorder (Medtronic, USA between August 2011 and October 2014. ECG data from loop recorders were transmitted at each hemodialysis session using a remote monitoring system. Primary outcome was SCD or implantation of a (tachy or bradyarrhythmia controlling device and secondary outcome, the development of arrhythmia necessitating medical intervention.During 379,512 hours of continuous ECG monitoring (mean 12,648±9,024 hours/patient, there were 8 deaths-2 SCD and 6 due to generalised deterioration/sepsis. 5 (20% patients had a primary outcome event (2 SCD, 3 pacemaker implantations for bradyarrhythmia. 10 (33% patients reached an arrhythmic primary or secondary end point. Median event free survival for any arrhythmia was 2.6 years (95% confidence intervals 1.6-3.6 years.The findings confirm the high mortality rate seen in hemodialysis populations and contrary to initial expectations, bradyarrhythmias emerged as a common and potentially significant arrhythmic event.

  4. Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

    2013-04-09

    To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

  5. From Transnational Trends to Local Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pacheco Cueva, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    . Furthermore, using Harvey’s geography of difference approach (2004) and a Gramscian conception of legitimacy, this chapter explores the various ways in which a geographically remote mining community in Papua New Guinea (PNG) replicates some of the global trends in socioeconomic monitoring....

  6. Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

    2013-12-01

    ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

  7. Trend of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. L. Eberhardt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Yellowstone's grizzlies (Ursus arctos have been studied for more than 40 years. Radiotelemetry has been used to obtain estimates of the rate of increase of the population, with results reported by Schwartz et al. (2006. Counts of females with cubs-of-the-year “unduplicated” also provide an index of abundance and are the primary subject of this report. An exponential model was fitted to n=24 such counts, using nonlinear leastsquares. Estimates of the rate of increase, r, were about 0.053. 95% confidence intervals, were obtained by several different methods, and all had lower limits substantially above zero, indicating that the population has been increasing steadily, in contrast to the results of Schwartz et al. (2006, which could not exclude a decreasing population. The grizzly data have been repeatedly mis-used in current literature for reasons explained here.

  8. Incorporating genetic sampling in long-term monitoring and adaptive management in the San Diego County Management Strategic Plan Area, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergast, Amy G.

    2017-06-02

    Habitat and species conservation plans usually rely on monitoring to assess progress towards conservation goals. Southern California, USA, is a hotspot of biodiversity and home to many federally endangered and threatened species. Here, several regional multi-species conservation plans have been implemented to balance development and conservation goals, including in San Diego County. In the San Diego County Management Strategic Plan Area (MSPA), a monitoring framework for the preserve system has been developed with a focus on species monitoring, vegetation monitoring, threats monitoring and abiotic monitoring. Genetic sampling over time (genetic monitoring) has proven useful in gathering species presence and abundance data and detecting population trends, particularly related to species and threats monitoring objectives. This report reviews genetic concepts and techniques of genetics that relate to monitoring goals and outlines components of a genetic monitoring scheme that could be applied in San Diego or in other monitoring frameworks throughout the Nation.

  9. Results of a pilot study in the U.S. and Vietnam to assess the utility and acceptability of a multi-level pregnancy test (MLPT) for home monitoring of hCG trends after assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shochet, Tara; Comstock, Ioanna A; Ngoc, Nguyen Thi Nhu; Westphal, Lynn M; Sheldon, Wendy R; Loc, Ly Thai; Blum, Jennifer; Winikoff, Beverly; Blumenthal, Paul D

    2017-08-22

    To evaluate the utility and acceptability of using multi-level pregnancy tests (MLPTs) at home to monitor hCG trends following assisted reproductive technology (ART). One hundred and four women presenting for ART at either Stanford Medicine Fertility and Reproductive Health Clinic (Stanford, CA) or Hung Vuong Hospital (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) participated in this pilot study. Women were asked to perform the MLPT at home, primarily on days when they were also scheduled to receive standard clinic-based serum hCG testing. These tests were administered up to 6 times over the 6-week period following embryo transfer or intrauterine insemination (IUI). Concordance of serial hCG readings for each time point was assessed by comparing trends in urine MLPT results with trends in serum hCG. Stable or increasing hCG level was interpreted as an indication of a progressing pregnancy, while a declining hCG was interpreted as a lack of established or progressing pregnancy. At study end, all participants were asked about the acceptability and convenience of using the MLPT at home for monitoring hCG trends following ART. Data from both urine and serum testing are available for 156 of 179 clinic visits (87.2%). There was high concordance of serial trend results between the two types of tests: among the 156 sets of serum and urine hCG data points, 150 (96.2%) showed a matching trend in hCG pattern and 6 (3.8%) resulted in a discordant trend. Seventy-three percent of women reported being satisfied or very satisfied with using the MLPTs at home. Almost all (96.6%) said that the MLPT was easy or very easy to use. The MLPT offers women and health care providers a client-friendly diagnostic tool to detect very early pregnancy and monitor its progress. This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01846403 (May 1, 2013), and NCT01919502 (August 5, 2013).

  10. Ten-Year Trends (2000-2010) of Overweight and Obesity Prevalence among the Young and Middle-Aged Adult Population of the Balearic Islands, a Mediterranean Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Josep L; Bibiloni, Maria Del Mar; Salas, Rogelio; Tur, Josep A

    2015-01-01

    This article aimed at assessing the 10-year trends (2000-2010) in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among the Balearic Islands' adult population. Body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) for young (18-35 year-olds) and middle-aged (36-55 year-olds) adults living in the Balearics was calculated. Data represented 1,089 people during 1999-2000 and 1,081 people during 2009-2010. The BMI categories were as follows: normal weight (18.5 obese (≥30). Weighted frequency estimates and logistic regression analysis were used to calculate overweight and obesity trends. While the prevalence of overweight and obesity mostly remained stable over the 2000-2010 period, the prevalence of obesity increased from 5.1 to 8.3% in young adults (aged 18-35), a 1.66-fold increase in prevalence (95% CI 1.02-2.70) over the study period. Total overweight and obesity prevalence remained stable in the Balearic adult population; however, a rising prevalence of obesity has been observed in young adults, which suggests a need to develop and change current strategies in order to reverse the current trends in obesity among this age group. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  11. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Bin; Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Bentham, James; Di Cesare, Mariachiara; Danaei, Goodarz; Bixby, Honor; Cowan, Melanie J; Ali, Mohammed K; Taddei, Cristina; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Reis-Santos, Barbara; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Riley, Leanne M.; Miranda, J. Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Source: doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8 Background:One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the agestandardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods:We pooled data from popu...

  12. Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

    2017-08-28

    Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend 0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  13. Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

    2012-01-01

    Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

  14. Sustainable Seas Student Intertidal Monitoring Project, Duxbury Reef, Bolinas, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soave, K.; Dean, A.; Prescutti, K.; Ball, O.; Chang, E.; Darakananda, K.; Jessup, K.; Poutian, J.; Schwalbe, H.; Storm, E.

    2008-12-01

    The Sustainable Seas Student Monitoring Project at the Branson School in Ross, CA has monitored Duxbury Reef in Bolinas, CA since 1999, in cooperation with the Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association and the Gulf of Farallones National Marine Sanctuary. Goals of the project include: 1) To monitor the rocky intertidal habitat and develop a baseline database of invertebrates and algal density and abundance; 2) To contribute to the conservation of the rocky intertidal habitat through education of students and visitors about intertidal species and requirements for maintaining a healthy, diverse intertidal ecosystem; 3) To increase stewardship in the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary; and 4) To contribute abundance and population data on key algae and invertebrate species to the national database, LiMPETS (Long Term Monitoring Program and Experiential Training for Students). Student volunteers complete an intensive training course on the natural history of intertidal invertebrates and algae, identification of key species, rocky intertidal ecology, interpretation and monitoring techniques, and history of the sanctuary. Students identify and count key invertebrate and algae species along two permanent transects (A and B), and using randomly determined points within a permanent 100 m2 area, three times per year (fall, winter, and late spring). Using the data collected since 2004, we will analyze the population densities of aggregating anemones, Anthopleura elegantissima, for seasonal abundance variations as well as long-term population trends. We will also follow the seasonal and long-term population fluctuations of red algal turf, Endocladia muricata and Gelidium coulteri, and black turban snails, Tegula funebralis. Comparing populations of turf algae and the herbivorous black turban snails gathered before and after the November 7, 2007 San Francisco Bay oil spill shows very little impact on the Duxbury Reef intertidal inhabitants. Future analyses will

  15. Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-05-01

    Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

  16. Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamp, Johannes; Oppel, Steffen; Ananin, Alexandr A; Durnev, Yurii A; Gashev, Sergey N; Hölzel, Norbert; Mishchenko, Alexandr L; Pessa, Jorma; Smirenski, Sergey M; Strelnikov, Evgenii G; Timonen, Sami; Wolanska, Kolja; Chan, Simba

    2015-12-01

    Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow-breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species' migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long-term monitoring data from across the species' range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3-94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species' range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow-breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial-scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species' populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E [Applied Mathematics Division, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)

    2003-11-21

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated.

  18. Generation and monitoring of discrete stable random processes using multiple immigration population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, J O; Hopcraft, K I; Jakeman, E

    2003-01-01

    Some properties of classical population processes that comprise births, deaths and multiple immigrations are investigated. The rates at which the immigrants arrive can be tailored to produce a population whose steady state fluctuations are described by a pre-selected distribution. Attention is focused on the class of distributions with a discrete stable law, which have power-law tails and whose moments and autocorrelation function do not exist. The separate problem of monitoring and characterizing the fluctuations is studied, analysing the statistics of individuals that leave the population. The fluctuations in the size of the population are transferred to the times between emigrants that form an intermittent time series of events. The emigrants are counted with a detector of finite dynamic range and response time. This is modelled through clipping the time series or saturating it at an arbitrary but finite level, whereupon its moments and correlation properties become finite. Distributions for the time to the first counted event and for the time between events exhibit power-law regimes that are characteristic of the fluctuations in population size. The processes provide analytical models with which properties of complex discrete random phenomena can be explored, and in addition provide generic means by which random time series encompassing a wide range of intermittent and other discrete random behaviour may be generated

  19. Long-term monitoring of month populations (Lepidoptera) associated with a natural wetland forest: synthesis after 25 years

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Spitzer, Karel; Jaroš, Josef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2008), s. 155-166 ISSN 1874-9828 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1QS500070505 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : population monitoring * light traps * moths Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  20. Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Geremia

    Full Text Available Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.

  1. Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koustubh Sharma

    Full Text Available Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25. Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08 and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15 and 0.77 (SE +-0.2 respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07. While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

  2. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Michael; Callinan, Sarah; Raninen, Jonas; Pennay, Amy; Dietze, Paul M

    2018-04-01

    Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n = 113 279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n = 12 347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  3. Monitoring the status of Gray Bats (Myotis grisescens) in Virginia, 2009-2014, and potential impacts of White-nose Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Karen E.; Reynolds, Richard J.; Orndorff, Wil; Hyzy, Brenna A.; Hobson, Christopher S.; Ford, W. Mark

    2016-01-01

    Myotis grisescens (Gray Bat) is a federally endangered species distributed over the mid-South with a summer range that extends across the upper Tennessee River Basin, including southwest Virginia. Given the onset of White-nose Syndrome (WNS) in the Commonwealth in the winter of 2009, we initiated yearly surveys in late summer 2009 to monitor the status of known summer populations. Our objectives were to examine the relative health of these bats using body mass index (BMI), and determine any changes in juvenile recruitment across sites and years. We did not find any marked changes in BMI across years after WNS for Gray Bats. This finding suggests that surviving bats are either not negatively impacted by WNS or have recovered sufficiently by late summer as to not document obvious differences across years. After limiting our analyses of juvenile recruitment to only the individuals that we had definitively aged via backlit photos (2010–2014), we found a non-significant declining trend in juvenile recruitment; a trend that merits continued monitoring in the years to come. As Gray Bats have only recently shown to be susceptible to WNS infection, it is possible that observable population declines are forthcoming.

  4. Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

  5. Collaborative Systemwide Monitoring and Evaluation Project (CSMEP) - Year 5 : Annual Report for FY 2008.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marmorek, David R.; Porter, Marc; Pickard, Darcy; Wieckowski, Katherine

    2008-11-19

    The Collaborative Systemwide Monitoring and Evaluation Project (CSMEP) is a coordinated effort to improve the quality, consistency, and focus of fish population and habitat data to answer key monitoring and evaluation questions relevant to major decisions in the Columbia River Basin. CSMEP was initiated by the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority (CBFWA) in October 2003. The project is funded by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) through the Northwest Power and Conservation Council's Fish and Wildlife Program (NPCC). CSMEP is a major effort of the federal state and Tribal fish and wildlife managers to develop regionally integrated monitoring and evaluation (M&E) across the Columbia River Basin. CSMEP has focused its work on five monitoring domains: status and trends monitoring of populations and action effectiveness monitoring of habitat, harvest, hatcheries, and the hydrosystem. CSMEP's specific goals are to: (1) interact with federal, state and tribal programmatic and technical entities responsible for M&E of fish and wildlife, to ensure that work plans developed and executed under this project are well integrated with ongoing work by these entities; (2) document, integrate, and make available existing monitoring data on listed salmon, steelhead, bull trout and other fish species of concern; (3) critically assess strengths and weaknesses of these data for answering key monitoring questions; and (4) collaboratively design, implement and evaluate improved M&E methods with other programmatic entities in the Pacific Northwest. During FY2008 CSMEP biologists continued their reviews of the strengths and weaknesses (S&W) of existing subbasin inventory data for addressing monitoring questions about population status and trends at different spatial and temporal scales. Work was focused on Lower Columbia Chinook and steelhead, Snake River fall Chinook, Upper Columbia Spring Chinook and steelhead, and Middle Columbia River Chinook and steelhead. These

  6. Waste monitoring system for effluents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, J.M.; Gomez, B.; Trujillo, L.; Malcom, J.E.; Nekimken, H.; Pope, N.; Bibeau, R.

    1995-07-01

    The waste monitoring system in use at Los Alamos National Laboratory's Plutonium Facility, TA-55, is a computer-based system that proves real-time information on industrial effluents. Remote computers monitor discharge events and data moves from one system to another via a local area network. This report describes the history, system design, summary, instrumentation list, displays, trending screens, and layout of the waste monitoring system

  7. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-02-01

    Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. Child sexual abuse involving physical contact was reported by 20% of women and 16% of men. In adulthood, figures were 20% and 10% for women and men, respectively. Prevalence of any form of sexual violence across the lifespan was 42% (women) and 38% (men). Analysis by year of birth indicated a curvilinear pattern for child sexual abuse with lower prevalence in the oldest and youngest participants. Sexual violence in young adulthood showed a linear pattern with higher prevalence in the youngest participants. The trend of lower rates of experience of child sexual abuse in younger adults in the sample is in keeping with findings from other countries. The trend of higher rates of adult sexual violence in younger adults is worrying, particularly since the same participants reported less experience of child sexual abuse than the preceding generations. There is a paucity of international data addressing the issue of cohort differences in exposure to sexual violence. Within-study analysis, and follow-up studies designed to maximize replicability, are needed to inform discussion about societal trends in different types of sexual violence.

  8. Dietary habits of the Irish population: results from SLÃÅN Annual Report 2003

    OpenAIRE

    Department of Health (Ireland)

    2003-01-01

    Dietary habits of the Irish population: results from SLÃÂÅN Annual Report 2003 The National Nutritional Surveillance Centre was established in 1992, in the Department of Health Promotion, National University of Ireland,Galway. In 2003 the Centre moved to the Department of Public Health Medicine and Epidemiology, University College Dublin. Its main functions are to provide nutrition-related information to relevant organizations in an accessible form and to monitor trends in health status i...

  9. Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

    2016-04-01

    Recent changes in economic development tendencies and environmental protection policies in the East Asian countries raise hopes for improvement of regional air quality in this vast region populated by more than 3 billion people. To recognize anticipated changes in atmospheric pollutants levels, deposition rates and impact on the environment, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) is regularly operating region-wide since 2000 in 13 countries. The network provides continuous monitoring data on the air quality and precipitation (including gas-phase and particulate chemistry) at 55 monitoring sites, including 20 remote and 14 rural sites. Observation of soil and inland water environments are performed at more than 30 monitoring sites [1]. In this study we focus on 1) the data quality assessment and preparation and 2) analysis of temporal trends of compositions observed at selected 26 non-urban EANET stations. Speciation includes gas-phase (SO2, HNO3, HCl, NH3) and particulate matter (SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, NH4+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) abundances analysed in samples collected using filterpack technique with sampling duration/frequency of one-two weeks. Data quality assessment (distribution test and manual inspection) allowed us to remove/repair random and operator errors. Wrong sample timing was found for 0.37% (severe) and 34% (mild inconsistency) of the total of 7630 samples regarded. Erroneous data flagging (e.g. missing or below the detection limit) was repaired for 9.3%, respectively. Some 1.8% of severely affected data were corrected (where possible) or removed. Thus refined 15-year dataset is made available for the scientific community. For convenience, we also provide data in netCDF format (per station or in an assembly). Based on this refined dataset, we performed trend analysis using several statistical approaches including quantile regression which provides robust results against outliers and better understanding of trend

  10. A framework for cognitive monitoring using computer game interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimison, Holly B; Pavel, Misha; Bissell, Payton; McKanna, James

    2007-01-01

    Many countries are faced with a rapidly increasing economic and social challenge of caring for their elderly population. Cognitive issues are at the forefront of the list of concerns. People over the age of 75 are at risk for medically related cognitive decline and confusion, and the early detection of cognitive problems would allow for more effective clinical intervention. However, standard cognitive assessments are not diagnostically sensitive and are performed infrequently. To address these issues, we have developed a set of adaptive computer games to monitor cognitive performance in a home environment. Assessment algorithms for various aspects of cognition are embedded in the games. The monitoring of these metrics allows us to detect within subject trends over time, providing a method for the early detection of cognitive decline. In addition, the real-time information on cognitive state is used to adapt the user interface to the needs of the individual user. In this paper we describe the software architecture and methodology for monitoring cognitive performance using data from natural computer interactions in a home setting.

  11. Monitoring Diabrotica v. virgifera (Col.: Chrysomelidae) in southeastern Slovenia: increasing population trend and host spectrum expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrichs, C; Dinnesen, S; Nedelev, T; Hummel, H E; Modic, S; Urek, G

    2008-01-01

    Ever since the western corn rootworm (WCR) (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera), an alien invasive species from North America, has been introduced into Europe on at least 3 separate occasions, it spread within 15 years over the entire area of south-eastern and central Europe (except Denmark). Until quite recently, Zea mays L. was the only known host plant whereas in North America WCR also attacks members of the plant family Cucurbitaceae. In August of 2006, we were able to validate these findings also in the Old World by observing WCR visiting blossoms of oil pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.). Beside this first report of WCR on this regionally and economically important crop, a population increase in Gaberje near Lendava, Eastern Slovenia, was observed. Some future consequences of multiple hosts for integrated pest management (IPM) of WCR are being discussed.

  12. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  13. Current Trends in Neuromuscular Blockade, Management, and Monitoring amongst Singaporean Anaesthetists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy H. Teoh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This survey aimed to investigate the attitudes/practice pertaining the use, management, and monitoring of neuromuscular blockade amongst Singaporean anaesthetists. Methods. All specialist accredited anaesthetists registered with the Singapore Medical Council were invited to complete an anonymous online survey. Results. The response rate was 39.5%. Neuromuscular monitoring (NM was used routinely by only 13.1% despite the widespread availability of monitors. 82% stated residual NMB (RNMB was a significant risk factor for patient outcome, but only 24% believed NMB monitoring should be compulsory in all paralyzed patients. 63.6% of anaesthetists estimated the risk of RNMB in their own institutions to be 50% said such benefits may be able to offset the associated costs. Conclusions. There is a significant need for reeducation about RNMB, studies on local RNMB incidences, and strengthening of current monitoring practices and guidelines. Strategies are discussed. As NM monitors appear widely available and reversal of NMB standard practice, it is hopeful that Singaporean anaesthetists will change and strive for evidence-based best clinical practice to enhance patient safety.

  14. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  15. Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Jessica Y.; Roby, Daniel D.; Lyons, Donald E.; Courtot, Karen N.; Collis, Ken; Carter, Harry R.; Shuford, W. David; Capitolo, Phillip J.

    2014-01-01

    The status of the double-crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchusspp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding

  16. Aging in Mexico: Population Trends and Emerging Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, William; López-Ortega, Mariana

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Although all nations in the America’s face a common demographic reality of longevity, declining fertility rates and changes in family roles a growing body of research points to a dramatic demographic transformation in Mexico. Although Mexico’s population is relatively young, with a median age of 27.9 in 2015, it will age rapidly in coming years, increasing to 42 years by 2050. The rapid median age in the nation also reflects the growing proportion of people 65 or older, and is expected to triple to 20.2% by 2050. This article examines how the age and gender structure of Mexico offers important insights about current and future political and social stability, as well as economic development. Mexico is the world’s eleventh largest country in terms of population size and the “demographic dividend” of a large youthful population is giving way to a growing older population that will inevitably place demands on health care and social security. The shift in age structure will result in increased dependency of retirees on the working-age population in the next 20 years. Mexico does not provide universal coverage of social security benefits and less than half of the labor force is covered by any pension or retirement plan. As a result, elderly Mexicans often continue working into old age. The high total poverty rate in the country, especially among the older population magnifies the problem of the potential dependency burden. The article ends with a discussion of key public policy issues related to aging in Mexico. PMID:27927730

  17. Status of the flora and fauna on the Nevada Test Site, 1992. Results of continuing basic environmental monitoring, January through December 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, R.B. [comp.

    1994-03-01

    This report documents changes in the populations of plants and animals on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for calendar year 1992. It is part of a Department of Energy (DOE) program (Basic Environmental Compliance and Monitoring Program -- BECAMP) that also includes monitoring DOE compliance with the Endangered Species Act, the Historic Preservation Act, and the American Indian Freedom of Religion Act. Ecological studies were to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act and DOE Order 5400.1, ``General Environmental Protection Program.`` These studies focused on the following: status of ephemeral plants on the Nevada Test Site, 1992; status of reptile and amphibian populations on the Nevada Test Site, 1992; trends in small mammal populations on the Nevada Test Site, 1992; status of large mammals and birds at Nevada Test Site, 1992; and status of perennial plants on the Nevada Test Site, 1992.

  18. [Trends in the consumption of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a Colombian population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado-Alba, Jorge Enrique; Alzate-Carvajal, Verónica; Jimenez-Canizales, Carlos Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Latin America, psychotropic medications are the third most marketed drug group, especially antidepressants (35%) and anxiolytics (5%). The objective of this study was to determine the trends in the consumption and the costs of anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs in a population of patients enrolled in the Health System of Colombia. A descriptive, observational study was performed using the data recorded inprescriptions for any anxiolytic or hypnotic drug prescribed to outpatients in the period between January 2008 and December 2013 in a population of 3.5 million people. Sociodemographic, pharmacological variables, overall costs, and cost per thousand inhabitants per day (CHD), were also recorded. The number of patients who received the drugs studied varied from 11,097 to 19,231 between 2008 and 2013. The most used drugs were clonazepam (44.1% of formulations), alprazolam (31.2%), and lorazepam (13.2%). The invoiced value of anxiolytics increased from US$ 207,673.63 in 2008 to US$ 488,977 in 2013, an increase of 135.4%. The CHD was US$ 0.31 for benzodiazepines, and US$ 0.02 for zaleplon, zolpidem and zopiclone (Z drugs) for 2008, and US$ 0.36 and US$ 0.02 in 2013 respectively. The CHD declined after 2010 following the introduction of generic drugs. Patients receiving benzodiazepines in Colombia are mostly women, average age 55 years, with very low frequency in defined daily doses per thousand inhabitants when compared with other countries. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  19. Trends in Medication Treatment for ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Lon; Aubert, Ronald E.; Verbrugge, Robert R.; Khalid, Mona; Epstein, Robert S.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: This study examines demographic trends in the use of medications to treat ADHD in adult and pediatric populations. Method: Using pharmacy claims data for a large population of commercially insured Americans, the study measures ADHD treatment prevalence and drug use from 2000 to 2005. Results: In 2005, 4.4% of children (ages 0 to 19) and…

  20. Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius

  1. Progress and lessons learned from water-quality monitoring networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Donna N.; Ludtke, Amy S.

    2017-01-01

    Stream-quality monitoring networks in the United States were initiated and expanded after passage of successive federal water-pollution control laws from 1948 to 1972. The first networks addressed information gaps on the extent and severity of stream pollution and served as early warning systems for spills. From 1965 to 1972, monitoring networks expanded to evaluate compliance with stream standards, track emerging issues, and assess water-quality status and trends. After 1972, concerns arose regarding the ability of monitoring networks to determine if water quality was getting better or worse and why. As a result, monitoring networks adopted a hydrologic systems approach targeted to key water-quality issues, accounted for human and natural factors affecting water quality, innovated new statistical methods, and introduced geographic information systems and models that predict water quality at unmeasured locations. Despite improvements, national-scale monitoring networks have declined over time. Only about 1%, or 217, of more than 36,000 US Geological Survey monitoring sites sampled from 1975 to 2014 have been operated throughout the four decades since passage of the 1972 Clean Water Act. Efforts to sustain monitoring networks are important because these networks have collected information crucial to the description of water-quality trends over time and are providing information against which to evaluate future trends.

  2. SRS environmental air surveillance program 1954-2015: General trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, K. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Jannik, T. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-06-02

    The radiological monitoring program at SRS was established under the DuPont Company in June 1951 and was used as a measurement of the effectiveness of plant controls and as an authoritative record of environmental conditions surrounding the plant. It also served as a method of demonstrating compliance with applicable federal regulations and guidance. This document serves as a general summary of changes made specifically to the environmental air monitoring program since its inception, and a discussion of the general trends seen in the air monitoring program at SRS from 1954 to 2015. Initially, the environmental air surveillance program focused not only on releases from SRS but also on fallout from various weapons testing performed through the end of 1978. Flypaper was used to measure the amount of fallout in the atmosphere during this period, and was present at each of the 10 monitoring stations. By 1959, all site stacks were included in the air monitoring program to determine their contribution to the airborne radioactivity onsite, and the number of air surveillance samplers rose to 18. This trend of an increased number of sampling locations continued to a peak of 35 sampling locations before shifting to a downward trend in the mid-1990s. In 1962, 4 outer-range samplers were placed in Savannah and Macon, GA, and in Greenville and Columbia, SC. Until 1976, air samplers were simply placed around the perimeter of the various operation locations (after 1959, this included stacks to determine their contribution to the airborne radioactivity), with the intent of creating as representative a distribution as possible of the air surrounding operations.

  3. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  4. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  5. Disease Monitoring and Health Campaign Evaluation Using Google Search Activities for HIV and AIDS, Stroke, Colorectal Cancer, and Marijuana Use in Canada: A Retrospective Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Background Infodemiology can offer practical and feasible health research applications through the practice of studying information available on the Web. Google Trends provides publicly accessible information regarding search behaviors in a population, which may be studied and used for health campaign evaluation and disease monitoring. Additional studies examining the use and effectiveness of Google Trends for these purposes remain warranted. Objective The objective of our study was to explore the use of infodemiology in the context of health campaign evaluation and chronic disease monitoring. It was hypothesized that following a launch of a campaign, there would be an increase in information seeking behavior on the Web. Second, increasing and decreasing disease patterns in a population would be associated with search activity patterns. This study examined 4 different diseases: human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, stroke, colorectal cancer, and marijuana use. Methods Using Google Trends, relative search volume data were collected throughout the period of February 2004 to January 2015. Campaign information and disease statistics were obtained from governmental publications. Search activity trends were graphed and assessed with disease trends and the campaign interval. Pearson product correlation statistics and joinpoint methodology analyses were used to determine significance. Results Disease patterns and online activity across all 4 diseases were significantly correlated: HIV infection (r=.36, Pcampaigns on colorectal cancer and marijuana use in stimulating search activity. No significant correlations were observed for the campaigns on stroke and HIV regarding search activity. Conclusions The use of infoveillance shows promise as an alternative and inexpensive solution to disease surveillance and health campaign evaluation. Further research is needed to understand Google Trends as a valid and reliable tool for health research. PMID:27733330

  6. Developing a meaningful QA trend analysis program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sternberg, A.

    1987-01-01

    A trend analysis program is being developed by the nuclear quality assurance (NQA) department at Public Service Electric and Gas Company, adapted from the principles advocated by W. Edwards Deming using statistical process control methods. It deals with identifying performance indicators that monitor the activities of a process considering both inputs and outputs, determining whether the process is stable or unstable, taking actions accordingly, and continuing to monitor the process with the objective of continual improvement of quality

  7. Monitoring long-term ecological changes through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: science-based and policy relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, H; Brydges, T; Fenech, A; Lumb, A

    2001-01-01

    Ecological monitoring and its associated research programs have often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 case study sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitude of agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of less comprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change are measured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a variety of partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersed monitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects, describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information that facilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are better able to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.

  8. Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snježana Mrđen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031 the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001. The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level, gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.

  9. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

    2017-09-18

    We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  10. Trends in Childspacing: June 1975. Current Population Reports: Population Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Maurice J.; And Others

    This report, largely statistical tables, presents data from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, on the timing and spacing of childbearing and discusses how such data is related to annual measures of fertility. By categorizing women according to their year of birth (birth cohort) or period of first marriage (marriage cohort), in addition to…

  11. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic trends for weight and body measurements at birth in sheep populations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    China Supakorn

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and genetic trends for birth weight (BW,heart girth (HG, and body length (BL at birth of sheep populations in Thailand. Data were collected during 1998 to 2011 fromfour livestock research and testing stations. Fixed effect testing showed that sex, herd, contemporary group and breed groupgreatly influenced on the investigated traits (P<0.05. The log likelihood ratio test showed that all traits significantly affectedby maternal additive genetic effect as well as covariance between animal effects. Estimated direct heritabilities from multivariate analysis of the model for BW, HG and BL were 0.32, 0.52 and 0.54, while estimated maternal heritabilities were 0.23,0.14 and 0.14, respectively. Positive correlations were found among direct additive genetic (0.29 to 0.97, maternal additivegenetic (0.23 to 0.95, and phenotype (0.18 to 0.96. Direct-maternal correlations within traits (-0.68 for BW, -0.92 for HG and-0.89 for BL and between traits (-0.89 to -0.08 were antagonistic effect. Direct additive genetic trends for BW, HG and BL inthe second period (2005 to 2011 were significantly increased (0.02 kg/year, 0.89 and 0.73 cm/year while maternal additivegenetic trends characteristically depicted significantly decreased (-0.01 kg/year, -0.92 and -0.72 cm/year.

  12. Distribution, population status, and threats of nationally threatened Cantor's leaf-nosed bat Hipposideros galeritus Cantor, 1846 in eastern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subrat Debata

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This report provides information regarding the distribution range, population status, and threats of the nationally threatened Cantor's leaf-nosed bat from Odisha, eastern India. The study revealed six new roosting sites of the species with an estimated total population of 97 individuals. Roosting sites were mostly recorded within moist deciduous habitats, located in caves, old temples, and buildings. In most of the sites, bats are threatened from roost site disturbance and hunted for ethnozoological uses. We recommend long-term monitoring on population trends in relation to human activities. The information generated from the study will aid in reassessing the conservation status of the species in future.

  13. Patient benefit from seamless implant monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Wallbrück

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with electrostimulation devices visit the hospital regularly for follow-up. The workload of out-patient departments is ever increasing, but a less frequent check-up is unwanted, as it could impair reliability and effectiveness of the therapy. A system of remote patient monitoring might improve this situation by enabling identification of patients who benefit from a shortened time for corrective action after any undesired event. A completely automatic system for patient remote monitoring has been introduced (BIOTRONIK Home Monitoring, HM. Daily patient and device data are displayed on an internet site which allows authorized persons to follow the parameters trends. Several clinical studies are presently being conducted to investigate the benefit of HM in pacemaker and implantable cardioverter/defibrillator therapy. Preliminary results show the system’s ability to individualize implant therapy for the patients’ and the physicians’ benefits. Previous studies in heart failure (HF therapy have shown that hospital readmission rates, hospitalisation duration and also mortality can be reduced by patient monitoring programs. A recently started study investigating HM in heart failure therapy aims to define a HF-indicator that predicts a worsening of the patient’s status leading to hospitalisation. With such an indicator, the responsible physician could be alerted and the patient can be called in. Although several issues connected to Home Monitoring remain to be solved, the time has come for a more flexible patient management. The incorporation of modern information technology into cardiovascular implants offers a way to solve the conflict between limited resources and high quality medical therapy for an aging population.

  14. N-16 monitors: Almaraz NPP experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrada, J.

    1997-01-01

    Almaraz Nuclear Power Plant has installed N-16 monitors - one per steam generator - to control the leakage rate through the steam generator tubes after the application of leak before break (LBB) criteria for the top tube sheet (TTS). After several years of operation with the N-16 monitors, Almaraz NPP experience may be summarized as follows: N-16 monitors are very useful to follow the steam generator leak rate trend and to detect an incipient tube rupture; but they do not provide an exact absolute leak rate value, mainly when there are small leaks. The evolution of the measured N-16 leak rates varies along the fuel cycle, with the same trend for the 3 steam generators. This behaviour is associated with the primary water chemistry evolution along the cycle

  15. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. TRENDS OF ROMANIAN BANKING NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Georgeta PANAIT

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009, two trends occurred in the banking world: downsizing of personnel, on the one hand and the reduction of retail units held, on the other hand. The first trend was most notable in countries with unstable or weak economy. The effects were seen immediately. Reducing of the operating costs and more applied of the territorial structure and staff was a decision that credit institutions in Romania took relatively late. Worldwide banks began a restructuring otherwise dictated by this time not so economic crises new market trends - increasing access to the internet for the population and use of the internet in a growing proportion of internet banking

  17. National protocol framework for the inventory and monitoring of bees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droege, Sam; Engler, Joseph D.; Sellers, Elizabeth A.; Lee O'Brien,

    2016-01-01

    This national protocol framework is a standardized tool for the inventory and monitoring of the approximately 4,200 species of native and non-native bee species that may be found within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). However, this protocol framework may also be used by other organizations and individuals to monitor bees in any given habitat or location. Our goal is to provide USFWS stations within the NWRS (NWRS stations are land units managed by the USFWS such as national wildlife refuges, national fish hatcheries, wetland management districts, conservation areas, leased lands, etc.) with techniques for developing an initial baseline inventory of what bee species are present on their lands and to provide an inexpensive, simple technique for monitoring bees continuously and for monitoring and evaluating long-term population trends and management impacts. The latter long-term monitoring technique requires a minimal time burden for the individual station, yet can provide a good statistical sample of changing populations that can be investigated at the station, regional, and national levels within the USFWS’ jurisdiction, and compared to other sites within the United States and Canada. This protocol framework was developed in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the USFWS, and a worldwide network of bee researchers who have investigated the techniques and methods for capturing bees and tracking population changes. The protocol framework evolved from field and lab-based investigations at the USGS Bee Inventory and Monitoring Laboratory at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Beltsville, Maryland starting in 2002 and was refined by a large number of USFWS, academic, and state groups. It includes a Protocol Introduction and a set of 8 Standard Operating Procedures or SOPs and adheres to national standards of protocol content and organization. The Protocol Narrative

  18. Annual environmental monitoring report of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleimer, G.E.

    1987-04-01

    The Environmental Monitoring Program of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory is described. Data for 1986 are presented and general trends are discussed. Topics include radiation monitoring, wastewater discharge monitoring, dose distribution estimates, and ground water monitoring. 9 refs., 8 figs., 20 tabs

  19. Trends in consumption of fats and oils among Indian tribal population over a period of 30 years: Findings of National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Laxmaiah

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In several randomized control trials, it was observed that the dietary fat content has a little, but a significant effect on energy consumption and body weight. The purpose of this communication was to assess fat consumption among tribals, time trends and its association with obesity and hypertension. Methods: These were community based cross-sectional studies, adopted multistage random sampling procedure. The subjects were covered from 120 randomly selected villages each from 9 states in India. Information on household socio-economic & demographic and food intakes were collected. Anthropometric parameters and blood pressure were measured by using standard equipment and procedures. Results: The mean intake of food and nutrients were assessed in 14,324, 32,023, and 41507 tribal subjects in 1985-87, 1998-99 and 2008-09, respectively. The mean consumption of visible fats was 10g/CU/day, as against requirement of 20g and increased from 7g in 1985-87 to 10g in 2008-09. The percentage of energy obtained from total fat (20.8g/day was 10% as against safe limit of 20%. The consumption of total dietary fats was increased significantly over a period of 3 decades in all the age groups, but it is less than recommended levels of ICMR. The fat intake was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. Conclusions: Even though fat consumption was increased in all the age groups, but less than the recommended levels of ICMR. The consumption of fat was significantly associated with obesity and hypertension. There is an urgent need to create awareness among tribal population to consume adequate and quality of fats.

  20. Trends in the breeding population and driving factors of Adélie penguin in the Ross Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, H.; Li, X.; Cheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Ross Sea regions have been characterized by high penguin-chick-rearing habitat suitability in the recent past. Many studies have been done to study the Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. However, the data they used both had advantages and drawbacks. Besides, little quantitative analysis were carried out to study the impact factors on the penguin population change. In this study, penguin population data from MAPPPD (Mapping application for penguin populations and projected dynamics) and IBA (Important bird areas in Antarctica) were integrated and analyzed to study the distribution and trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguin over time in the Ross Sea. In addition, linear fitting method for spatial data in time series were used to study the driving factors such as 2m-temperature, sea ice cover and chlorophyll-a concentration which can quantify phytoplankton blooms. Results indicated that there were 45 Adélie penguin colonies in the Ross Sea. Cape Adare and Cape Crozier were two biggest colonies on which current Adélie penguin abundance were 428516 and 280787 breeding pairs, respectively. Among these colonies, penguin population on 28 colonies increased, on 5 colonies decreased and on 5 colonies remained no change over time, and there were also 5 new colonies and one colony which were extinct. It was found that Adélie penguin population in most of colonies in the Ross Sea increased, which meant that Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea were "climate change winners". The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin population in the Ross Sea might be the rise in 2m-temperature and the increase in sea ice cover and phytoplankton. Higher temperatures have resulted in glacial retreat and snow melting, which leads to an increase in available habitat for penguins. The increased sea ice and phytoplankton might positively affect the abundance of Antarctic krill that was the major prey item for Adélie penguins in Antarctic.

  1. Community Sewage Sensors towards Evaluation of Drug Use Trends: Detection of Cocaine in Wastewater with DNA-Directed Immobilization Aptamer Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhugen; Castrignanò, Erika; Estrela, Pedro; Frost, Christopher G.; Kasprzyk-Hordern, Barbara

    2016-02-01

    Illicit drug use has a global concern and effective monitoring and interventions are highly required to combat drug abuse. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an innovative and cost-effective approach to evaluate community-wide drug use trends, compared to traditional population surveys. Here we report for the first time, a novel quantitative community sewage sensor (namely DNA-directed immobilization of aptamer sensors, DDIAS) for rapid and cost-effective estimation of cocaine use trends via WBE. Thiolated single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) probe was hybridized with aptamer ssDNA in solution, followed by co-immobilization with 6-mercapto-hexane onto the gold electrodes to control the surface density to effectively bind with cocaine. DDIAS was optimized to detect cocaine at as low as 10 nM with a dynamic range from 10 nM to 5 μM, which were further employed for the quantification of cocaine in wastewater samples collected from a wastewater treatment plant in seven consecutive days. The concentration pattern of the sampling week is comparable with that from mass spectrometry. Our results demonstrate that the developed DDIAS can be used as community sewage sensors for rapid and cost-effective evaluation of drug use trends, and potentially implemented as a powerful tool for on-site and real-time monitoring of wastewater by un-skilled personnel.

  2. Population and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-03-01

    The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) recently organized a workshop to develop an analytical framework for population research and development planning. The workshop goal was to enable study directors to review and discuss research methodology and guidelines for a series of country studies to be undertaken as part of a large project devoted to integrating population and development. The overall project objective is to provide individual national entities with current and scientifically sound descriptions, analyses, and interpretations of significant population and development trends and their interrelationships along with assessments of the implications of such trends and relationships for the formulation and improvement of public policy. 1 reason for the limited progress in the integration of population and development planning is the lack of useful and applicable scientific information for responsible planners as well as a lack of analytical frameworks. If the results of the research are to be made useful for decisionmaking purposes, processing of the information is required. The need exists for current critical analysis and synthesis of available information at the country level on significant population and development trends and their interrelationships and an assessment of their implications for the formulation and improvement of public policy and programs. In regard to an analytical framework, much work has been done in the areas of population development interrelationships and their modelling. Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand are the countries which have been selected for investigation for the ESCAP project. The comparative analysis that is to be conducted will facilitate understanding of current population development research activities and the future needs of these countries.

  3. Surface Water Quality Trends from EPA's LTM Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C.; Lynch, J. A.

    2013-12-01

    Surface water chemistry provides direct indicators of the potential effects of anthropogenic impacts, such as acid deposition and climate change, on the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. Long-term surface water monitoring networks provide a host of environmental data that can be used, in conjunction with other networks, to assess how water bodies respond to stressors and if they are potentially at risk (e.g., receiving pollutant deposition beyond its critical load). Two EPA-administered monitoring programs provide information on the effects of acidic deposition on headwater aquatic systems: the Long Term Monitoring (LTM) program and the Temporally Integrated Monitoring of Ecosystems (TIME) program, designed to track the effectiveness of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) in reducing the acidity of surface waters in acid sensitive ecoregions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Here we present regional variability of long term trends in surface water quality in response to substantial reductions in atmospheric deposition. Water quality trends at acid sensitive LTM sites exhibit decreasing concentrations of sulfate at 100% of monitored sites in the Adirondack Mountains and New England, 80% of Northern Appalachian Plateau sites, and yet only 15% of sites in the Ridge and Blue Ridge Provinces over the 1990-2011 period of record. Across all regions, most LTM sites exhibited constant or only slightly declining nitrate concentrations over the same time period. Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) levels improved at 68% and 45% of LTM sites in the Adirondacks and Northern Appalachian Plateau, respectively, but few sites showed increases in New England or the Ridge and Blue Ridge Provinces due to lagging improvements in base cation concentration. The ANC of northeastern TIME lakes was also evaluated from 1991 to 1994 and 2008 to 2011. The percentage of lakes with ANC values below 50 μeq/L, lakes of acute or elevated concern, dropped by about 7%, indicating improvement

  4. Analysis of the overweight and obesity trend in the Peruvian population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tarqui-Mamani

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overweight and obesity constitute a public health problem worldwide and also in Peru, and its study is necessary. The aim was to analyze the tendency of overweight and obesity according to age, sex and poverty. Material and methods: A trend study that analyzed overweight and obesity in 175,984 Peruvians surveyed between 2007 and 2014. The samples were representative and probabilistic of Peruvian households. Results: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased in all age groups studied (p<0.001, except for the group under 5 years of age. In men, the tendency of overweight was to increase (p<0.001 except in children. In women, the tendency was to increase in all groups (p<0.001 except the under 5 years of age and the group between 20-29 years of age. In people living in extreme poverty, the tendency of overweight was to increase in the young, adult and elderly (p<0.001. In people living in poverty, the tendency of the overweight was to increase (p<0.01, except in children of 5-9 years of age. The trend of obesity in men and women was increased (p<0.001, except in children under 5 years of age. In women, the exception was also in older adults. Analyzing poverty it was observed that in people living in extreme poverty the tendency of obesity was to increase in young people and adults (p<0.01. In people living in poverty, the tendency of obesity was to increase in adolescents, youth and adults (p<0.01. Conclusions: The trend of overweight and obesity was increased, except in children under 5 years of age, with predominance in men and people living in poverty.

  5. Trends in population-based studies of human genetics in infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowell, Jessica L; Dowling, Nicole F; Yu, Wei; Yesupriya, Ajay; Zhang, Lyna; Gwinn, Marta

    2012-01-01

    Pathogen genetics is already a mainstay of public health investigation and control efforts; now advances in technology make it possible to investigate the role of human genetic variation in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. To describe trends in this field, we analyzed articles that were published from 2001 through 2010 and indexed by the HuGE Navigator, a curated online database of PubMed abstracts in human genome epidemiology. We extracted the principal findings from all meta-analyses and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with an infectious disease-related outcome. Finally, we compared the representation of diseases in HuGE Navigator with their contributions to morbidity worldwide. We identified 3,730 articles on infectious diseases, including 27 meta-analyses and 23 GWAS. The number published each year increased from 148 in 2001 to 543 in 2010 but remained a small fraction (about 7%) of all studies in human genome epidemiology. Most articles were by authors from developed countries, but the percentage by authors from resource-limited countries increased from 9% to 25% during the period studied. The most commonly studied diseases were HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, hepatitis B infection, hepatitis C infection, sepsis, and malaria. As genomic research methods become more affordable and accessible, population-based research on infectious diseases will be able to examine the role of variation in human as well as pathogen genomes. This approach offers new opportunities for understanding infectious disease susceptibility, severity, treatment, control, and prevention.

  6. F-Area Seepage Basins groundwater monitoring report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-09-01

    This progress report from the Savannah River Plant for second quarter 1992 includes discussion on the following topics: description of facilities; hydrostratigraphic units; monitoring well nomenclature; integrity of the monitoring well network; groundwater monitoring data; analytical results exceeding standards; tritium, nitrate, and pH time-trend data; water levels; groundwater flow rates and directions; upgradient versus downgradient results

  7. F-Area Seepage Basins groundwater monitoring report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    This progress report from the Savannah River Plant for first quarter 1992 includes discussion on the following topics: description of facilities; hydrostratigraphic units; monitoring well nomenclature; integrity of the monitoring well network; groundwater monitoring data; analytical results exceeding standards; tritium, nitrate, and pH time-trend data; water levels; groundwater flow rates and directions; upgradient versus downgradient results

  8. Incidence and time trends of Herpes zoster in rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veetil, Bharath Manu Akkara; Myasoedova, Elena; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Green, Abigail B.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine the incidence, time trends, risk factors and severity of herpes zoster (HZ) in a population-based incidence cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to a group of individuals without RA from the same population. Methods All residents of Olmsted County, MN who first fulfilled 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2007 and a cohort of similar residents without RA were assembled and followed by retrospective chart review until death, migration, or 12/31/2008. Results There was no difference in the presence of HZ prior to RA incidence/index date between the cohorts (p=0.85). During follow-up 84 patients with RA (rate: 12.1 per 1000 person-years) and 44 subjects without RA (rate: 5.4 per 1000 person-years) developed HZ. Patients with RA were more likely to develop HZ than those without RA (hazard ratio: 2.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.7, 3.5). Patients diagnosed with RA in 1995–2007 had a higher likelihood of developing HZ than those diagnosed in 1980–1994. Erosive disease, previous joint surgery, use of hydroxychloroquine and corticosteroids were significantly associated with the development of HZ in RA, while the use of methotrexate or biologic agents was not. Complications of HZ occurred at a similar rate in both cohorts. Conclusion The incidence of HZ is increased in RA and has risen in recent years. The increasing incidence of HZ in more recent years is also noted in the general population. RA disease severity is associated with development of HZ. PMID:23281295

  9. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends in the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlak, Janet

    1998-12-01

    This publication relates to the quality of the marine environment in the North Sea. Changes in pollution load and environmental trends are analysed. Main themes discussed cover chemical contaminants, temporal trends contaminants in biota, inputs of contaminants to the marine environment, and biological effects of contaminants and biological monitoring. 14 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs.

  10. Population trends of smallmouth bass in the upper Colorado River basin with an evaluation of removal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, André R.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Hawkins, John A.; Bestgen, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    , environmental effects were also responsible for significant declines in smallmouth bass densities in some reaches. Abundant year classes of young smallmouth bass produced in low flow and warm years such as 2007 have potential to overwhelm removal efforts, and the year class persists for one or more years. Nonetheless, it appears that increased electrofishing removal efforts from 2007 to 2011 resulted in sustained reductions in density of smallmouth bass sub-adults and adults throughout the upper basin despite environmental conditions that favored smallmouth bass reproduction in some years (e.g. 2007 and 2009), subsequent recruitment into sub-adult and adult age classes, and movement of smallmouth bass which previously (prior to increases in electrofishing removal efforts) allowed densities to recover in some reaches.We recommend that removal efforts continue in most areas of the upper basin but that the Recovery Program consider allocating effort based on population trends and suspected areas of highest smallmouth bass reproduction. For instance, reproduction, recruitment, and movement of smallmouth bass allowed densities to recover in some reaches, particularly Little Yampa Canyon. Smallmouth bass population recovery implies that areas such as Little Yampa Canyon itself or adjacent reaches (especially upstream), may provide important habitat for age-0 production. We recommend continued assessment of smallmouth bass populations in reaches where reproduction or age-1 nurseries are suspected, such as Little Yampa Canyon and the adjacent upstream reach. It may also be necessary to expand monitoring to areas surrounding suspected sources of smallmouth bass reproduction and increase electrofishing removal effort in these reaches.

  11. Declining trend in the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease in the adult population of Finland, 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virta, L J; Saarinen, M M; Kolho, K-L

    2017-12-01

    The frequency of coeliac disease (CD) has been on the rise over the past decades, especially in Western Europe, but current trends are unclear. To research the recent temporal changes in the incidence of adult, biopsy-verified coeliac disease and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) in Finland, a country with a high frequency of coeliac disease. All coeliac disease and DH cases diagnosed at age 20-79 years during 2005-2014 were retrieved from a nationwide database documenting all applicants for monthly compensation to cover the extra cost of maintaining a gluten-free diet. This benefit is granted on the basis of histology, not socioeconomic status. Temporal trends in the annual incidences were estimated using Poisson regression analyses. The total incidence of coeliac disease decreased from 33/100 000 during the years 2005-2006 to 29/100 000 during 2013-2014. The mean annual incidence of coeliac disease was nearly twice as high among women as among men, 42 vs 22 per 100 000, respectively. For middle- and old-aged women, the average rate of decrease in incidence was 4.8% (95% CI 3.9-5.7) per year and for men 3.0% (1.8-4.1) (P for linear trend adults, the rate of change remained low and nonsignificant throughout the period 2005-2014. Although the awareness of coeliac disease has increased during the past decades, the incidence of biopsy-verified diagnoses is not increasing, which suggests that exposure to yet unidentified triggering factors for coeliac disease has plateaued among the Finnish adult population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Appendicitis: Trends in incidence, age, sex, and seasonal variations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background:Appendicitis is a common clinical condition worldwide. Differences in ... Aim:To assess the trends in incidence and pattern of variation with age, sex, and seasons of the year. .... population of 465000 (an annual population growth.

  13. Adélie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarman, Simon N; McInnes, Julie C; Faux, Cassandra; Polanowski, Andrea M; Marthick, James; Deagle, Bruce E; Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise

    2013-01-01

    The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA) sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

  14. Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

    2006-01-01

    The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

  15. Use of recent and historical records to estimate status and trends of a rare and imperiled stream fish, Percina jenkinsi (Percidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagler, Megan M.; Freeman, Mary C.; Wenger, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.; Rakes, Patrick L.; Shute, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    Rarely encountered animals may be present but undetected, potentially leading to incorrect assumptions about the persistence of a local population or the conservation priority of a particular area. The federally endangered and narrowly endemic Conasauga logperch (Percina jenkinsi) is a good example of a rarely encountered fish species of conservation concern, for which basic population statistics are lacking. We evaluated the occurrence frequency for this species using surveys conducted with a repeat-observation sampling approach during the summer of 2008. We also analyzed museum records since the late 1980s to evaluate the trends in detected status through time. The results of these analyses provided support for a declining trend in this species over a portion of its historical range, despite low estimated detection probability. We used the results to identify the expected information return for a given level of monitoring where the sampling approach incorporates incomplete detection. The method applied here may be of value where historic occurrence records are available, provided that the assumption of constant capture efficiency is reasonable.

  16. Use of two population metrics clarifies biodiversity dynamics in large-scale monitoring: the case of trees in Japanese old-growth forests: the need for multiple population metrics in large-scale monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Mifuyu; Yamaura, Yuichi; Abe, Shin; Hoshino, Daisuke; Hoshizaki, Kazuhiko; Iida, Shigeo; Katsuki, Toshio; Masaki, Takashi; Niiyama, Kaoru; Saito, Satoshi; Sakai, Takeshi; Sugita, Hisashi; Tanouchi, Hiroyuki; Amano, Tatsuya; Taki, Hisatomo; Okabe, Kimiko

    2011-07-01

    Many indicators/indices provide information on whether the 2010 biodiversity target of reducing declines in biodiversity have been achieved. The strengths and limitations of the various measures used to assess the success of such measures are now being discussed. Biodiversity dynamics are often evaluated by a single biological population metric, such as the abundance of each species. Here we examined tree population dynamics of 52 families (192 species) at 11 research sites (three vegetation zones) of Japanese old-growth forests using two population metrics: number of stems and basal area. We calculated indices that track the rate of change in all species of tree by taking the geometric mean of changes in population metrics between the 1990s and the 2000s at the national level and at the levels of the vegetation zone and family. We specifically focused on whether indices based on these two metrics behaved similarly. The indices showed that (1) the number of stems declined, whereas basal area did not change at the national level and (2) the degree of change in the indices varied by vegetation zone and family. These results suggest that Japanese old-growth forests have not degraded and may even be developing in some vegetation zones, and indicate that the use of a single population metric (or indicator/index) may be insufficient to precisely understand the state of biodiversity. It is therefore important to incorporate more metrics into monitoring schemes to overcome the risk of misunderstanding or misrepresenting biodiversity dynamics.

  17. Inhalant abuse: monitoring trends by using poison control data, 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsolek, Melinda R; White, Nicole C; Litovitz, Toby L

    2010-05-01

    To demonstrate the value of poison control data as an adjunct to national drug abuse surveys and a source of data to inform and focus prevention efforts. National Poison Data System (NPDS) data are collected and compiled in real time by the 60 US poison centers as callers seek guidance for poison exposures. Demographic, geographic, product, outcome, and treatment-site data for the 35453 inhalant cases reported between 1993 and 2008 were analyzed. The prevalence of inhalant cases reported to US poison control centers decreased 33% from 1993 to 2008. Prevalence was highest among children aged 12 to 17 years and peaked in 14-year-olds. In contrast to national survey data showing nearly equal use of inhalants by both genders, 73.5% of NPDS inhalant cases occurred in boys, which suggests that boys may pursue riskier usage behaviors. Most cases (67.8%) were managed in health care facilities. More than 3400 different products were reported. Propellants, gasoline, and paint were the most frequent product categories. Propellants were the only product category that substantially increased over time. Butane, propane, and air fresheners had the highest fatality rates. Prevalence for all inhalants was highest in western mountain states and West Virginia, but geographic distribution varied according to product type. Gasoline was a proportionately greater problem for younger children; propellants were an issue for older children. NPDS should be used to monitor inhalant abuse because it provides unique, timely, and clinically useful information on medical outcomes experienced by users, includes detailed product information (brand and formulation), and can potentially be used to identify real-time demographic, geographic, and product trends. Focusing inhalant prevention efforts on the most hazardous products and most seriously affected users may improve and facilitate strategic prevention, enabling interventions such as targeted education, product reformulation, repackaging

  18. Trends in HIV testing and associated factors among men in South Africa: evidence from 2005, 2008 and 2012 national population-based household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makusha, T; Mabaso, M; Richter, L; Desmond, C; Jooste, S; Simbayi, L

    2017-02-01

    In Sub-Saharan African countries, including South Africa, uptake of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing among men remains a major challenge. Few studies have explored HIV testing uptake among men and factors that influence their testing behaviours. This article explores trends in HIV testing uptake and associated factors among men aged 15 years and older in South Africa using national HIV population-based household surveys conducted in 2005, 2008 and 2012. A multistage cross-sectional design was used in the three nationally representative household-based surveys. P-trend Chi-squared statistic was used to analyze changes in HIV testing in relation to demographic factors, and HIV-related risk behaviours across the three surveys. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between ever testing for HIV, demographic factors and HIV-related risk behaviours. HIV testing uptake among men was 28% in 2005, 43% in 2008 and 59% in 2012. A trend was also observed in HIV testing by sociodemographic factors, but differences existed within variables. HIV testing uptake was mainly influenced by the effects of selected population characteristics. Reduced likelihood of HIV testing was significantly associated with males aged 15-24 years, Black African race group, being single and unemployed, those residing in urban informal and rural informal areas, and those men who ever had sex. The observed sociodemographic differentials suggest that an effective expansion strategy for HIV testing needs to prioritize those most unlikely to test as identified by the current findings. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Dworshak Reservoir kokanee population monitoring: project progress report, 1999 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maiolie, Melo; Vidergar, Dmitri T.; Harryman, Bill

    2001-01-01

    We used split-beam hydroacoustics and trawling to monitor the kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka population in Dworshak Reservoir during 1999. Estimated abundance of kokanee has continued to increase since the high entrainment losses in the spring of 1996. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 1,545,000 kokanee and rainbow trout O. mykiss in Dworshak Reservoir during July 1999. This included 1,144,000 age-0 kokanee (90% CI ± 42%), 212,000 age-1 kokanee (90% CI ± 15%), and 189,000 age-2 kokanee and stocked rainbow trout (90% CI ± 39%). Rainbow trout could not be distinguished from the age-2 kokanee in the echograms since they were of similar size. Age-0 kokanee ranged in length from 40 mm to 90 mm, age-1 from 193 mm to 212 mm, and age-2 kokanee from 219 mm to 336 mm. These sizes indicated kokanee are still growing well. Discharge of water from Dworshak Dam during 1999 did not stop the expansion of the kokanee population based on these results. Counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams exceeded 11,000 fish. This index also showed a marked increase from last year's 660 spawning kokanee or the 1997 total of 144 spawning kokanee

  20. Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

    2018-01-01

    Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough

  1. Population Policy and the Changing Distribution of the U.S. Population--Implications for Teaching Population Geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, Patricia

    The role of migration and of federal policy in population redistribution should be a central focus in population geography education. Although migration to the Sunbelt and the West has been a pattern since the 1950s, a significant trend has been noted only since the 1970s, when the birth rate dropped so much that natural increase could not…

  2. Aging in France: Population Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beland, Daniel; Durandal, Jean-Philippe Viriot

    2013-01-01

    Like in other advanced industrial countries, in France, demographic aging has become a widely debated research and policy topic. This article offers a brief overview of major aging-related trends in France. The article describes France's demographics of aging, explores key policy matters, maps the institutional field of French social gerontology…

  3. Assessing temporal trends and source regions of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in air under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Fiona; Shoeib, Mahiba; Katsoyiannis, Athanasios; Eckhardt, Sabine; Stohl, Andreas; Bohlin-Nizzetto, Pernilla; Li, Henrik; Fellin, Phil; Su, Yushan; Hung, Hayley

    2018-01-01

    Long-term Arctic air monitoring of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) is essential in assessing their long-range transport and for evaluating the effectiveness of chemical control initiatives. We report for the first time temporal trends of neutral and ionic PFASs in air from three arctic stations: Alert (Canada, 2006-2014); Zeppelin (Svalbard, Norway, 2006-2014) and Andøya (Norway, 2010-2014). The most abundant PFASs were the perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), and fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs). All of these chemicals exhibited increasing trends at Alert with doubling times (t2) of 3.7 years (y) for PFOA, 2.9 y for PFOS, 2.5 y for PFBA, 5.0 y for 8:2 FTOH and 7.0 y for 10:2 FTOH. In contrast, declining or non-changing trends, were observed for PFOA and PFOS at Zeppelin (PFOA, half-life, t1/2 = 7.2 y; PFOS t1/2 = 67 y), and Andøya (PFOA t1/2 = 1.9 y; PFOS t1/2 = 11 y). The differences in air concentrations and in time trends between the three sites may reflect the differences in regional regulations and source regions. We investigate the source region for particle associated compounds using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Model results showed that PFOA and PFOS are impacted by air masses originating from the ocean or land. For instance, PFOA at Alert and PFOS at Zeppelin were dominated by oceanic air masses whereas, PFOS at Alert and PFOA at Zeppelin were influenced by air masses transported from land.

  4. Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

    2011-08-01

    The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

  5. Wind turbine control and monitoring

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Ningsu; Acho, Leonardo

    2014-01-01

    Maximizing reader insights into the latest technical developments and trends involving wind turbine control and monitoring, fault diagnosis, and wind power systems, 'Wind Turbine Control and Monitoring' presents an accessible and straightforward introduction to wind turbines, but also includes an in-depth analysis incorporating illustrations, tables and examples on how to use wind turbine modeling and simulation software.   Featuring analysis from leading experts and researchers in the field, the book provides new understanding, methodologies and algorithms of control and monitoring, comput

  6. Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

    2009-01-01

    One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

  7. Recent Trends in Rapid Environmental Monitoring of Pathogens and Toxicants: Potential of Nanoparticle-Based Biosensor and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Thasiphu, Thalisa; Weon, Jong-Il; Boonprasert, Rattana; Tuitemwong, Kooranee; Tuitemwong, Pravate

    2015-01-01

    Of global concern, environmental pollution adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. The presence of environmental contaminants, especially bacterial, viral, and parasitic pathogens and their toxins as well as chemical substances, poses serious public health concerns. Nanoparticle-based biosensors are considered as potential tools for rapid, specific, and highly sensitive detection of the analyte of interest (both biotic and abiotic contaminants). In particular, there are several limitations of conventional detection methods for water-borne pathogens due to low concentrations and interference with various enzymatic inhibitors in the environmental samples. The increase of cells to detection levels requires long incubation time. This review describes current state of biosensor nanotechnology, the advantage over conventional detection methods, and the challenges due to testing of environmental samples. The major approach is to use nanoparticles as signal reporter to increase output rather than spending time to increase cell concentrations. Trends in future development of novel detection devices and their advantages over other environmental monitoring methodologies are also discussed. PMID:25884032

  8. 2005 Annual Synthesis Report, Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program and Associated Fish Community Monitoring for the Missouri River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Eric W.; Hanrahan, Timothy P.; Harnish, Ryan A.; Bellgraph, Brian J.; Duncan, Joanne P.; Allwardt, Craig H.

    2008-08-12

    Pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus, have declined throughout the Missouri River since dam construction and inception of the Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project in 1912. Their decline likely is due to the loss and degradation of their natural habitat as a result of changes in the river’s structure and function, as well as the pallid sturgeon’s inability to adapt to these changes. The U. S. Army Corps of Engineers has been working with state and federal agencies to develop and conduct a Pallid Sturgeon Monitoring and Assessment Program (Program), with the goal of recovering pallid sturgeon populations. The Program has organized the monitoring and assessment efforts into distinct geographic segments, with state and federal resource management agencies possessing primary responsibility for one or more segment. To date, the results from annual monitoring have been reported for individual Program segments. However, monitoring results have not been summarized or evaluated for larger spatial scales, encompassing more than one Program segment. This report describes a summary conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that synthesizes the 2005 sampling year monitoring results from individual segments.

  9. 2006 Annual Synthesis Report, Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program and Associated Fish Community Monitoring for the Missouri River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Eric W.; Hanrahan, Timothy P.; Harnish, Ryan A.; Bellgraph, Brian J.; Duncan, Joanne P.; Allwardt, Craig H.

    2008-08-12

    Pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus, have declined throughout the Missouri River since dam construction and inception of the Bank Stabilization and Navigation Project in 1912. Their decline likely is due to the loss and degradation of their natural habitat as a result of changes in the river’s structure and function, as well as the pallid sturgeon’s inability to adapt to these changes. The U. S. Army Corps of Engineers has been working with state and federal agencies to develop and conduct a Pallid Sturgeon Monitoring and Assessment Program (Program), with the goal of recovering pallid sturgeon populations. The Program has organized the monitoring and assessment efforts into distinct geographic segments, with state and federal resource management agencies possessing primary responsibility for one or more segment. To date, the results from annual monitoring have been reported for individual Program segments. However, monitoring results have not been summarized or evaluated for larger spatial scales, encompassing more than one Program segment. This report describes a summary conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that synthesizes the 2006 sampling year monitoring results from individual segments.

  10. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  11. ESUMS: a mobile system for continuous home monitoring of rehabilitation patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strisland, Frode; Svagård, Ingrid; Seeberg, Trine M; Mathisen, Bjørn Magnus; Vedum, Jon; Austad, Hanne O; Liverud, Anders E; Kofod-Petersen, Anders; Bendixen, Ole Christian

    2013-01-01

    The pressure on the healthcare services is building up for several reasons. The ageing population trend, the increase in life-style related disease prevalence, as well as the increased treatment capabilities with associated general expectation all add pressure. The use of ambient healthcare technologies can alleviate the situation by enabling time and cost-efficient monitoring and follow-up of patients discharged from hospital care. We report on an ambulatory system developed for monitoring of physical rehabilitation patients. The system consists of a wearable multisensor monitoring device; a mobile phone with client application aggregating the data collected; a service-oriented-architecture based server solution; and a PC application facilitating patient follow-up by their health professional carers. The system has been tested and verified for accuracy in controlled environment trials on healthy volunteers, and also been usability tested by 5 congestive heart failure patients and their nurses. This investigation indicated that patients were able to use the system, and that nurses got an improved basis for patient follow-up.

  12. Trends in the prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan from 1997 to 2013: A nationwide population-based retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui-Chieh; Su, Ni-Yu; Huang, Jing-Yang; Lee, Shiuan-Shinn; Chang, Yu-Chao

    2017-11-01

    Periodontitis is one of the most prevalent oral diseases. In this study, we probed the nationwide registered database to assess the time trends of prevalence of periodontitis in Taiwan.A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the registered database compiled by the National Health Insurance provided by the Department of Health, Taiwan, from 1997 to December 2013.We found that the prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased from 11.5% in 1997 to 19.59% in 2013 (P for trend periodontitis from 1997 to 2013 was 54.46 ± 14.47 and 45.51 ± 16.58 years old, respectively. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age group >65 years old decreased markedly. The proportion of individuals with periodontitis in age groups periodontitis (male: RR, 67.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.04-266.76; female: RR, 65.85, 95% CI, 16.70-259.70). Both male and female groups showed the similar age-effect pattern in the cross-sectional age curve from age-period-cohort model. There was an upturn with advancing age up to 40 to 50 years old and then a downward trend in both genders. Population dwelling in suburban area (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97) and rural area (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) had the lower risk of periodontitis than those who lived in urban area. The higher income group revealed the higher risk of periodontitis compared with lower income group (RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.23).The prevalence of periodontitis significantly increased in Taiwan over past 17 years. The mean age with periodontitis was shown in a decreased pattern. The use of a nationwide population-based database could provide sufficient sample size, generalizability, and statistical power to assess the periodontal status in Taiwan.

  13. Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

  14. Application of information technologies to water monitoring: Features and sectoral trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Croci, E; Pesaro, G [Bocconi Univ., Milan (Italy). Ist. di Economia delle Fonti di Energia

    1991-04-01

    Social attention to water pollution is increasing. Because of the complexity of the natural, institutional, technological and economical aspects involved, an efficient policy for prevention and intervention needs to consider many variables. A good knowledge of the environmental situation and evolution is the basis for any action by both public and private acting agencies. Water monitoring allows the collection and elaboration of information through a process which goes from raw environmental data to public decisions. Monitoring can also present business opportunities for firms. The large Italian and multinational companies are entering the market and making agreements with small engineering firms with strong technological capabilities. In particular, the elaboration and automation of monitoring procedures represent important tendencies towards the improvement of environmental services. The institutional framework is very relevant in the definition of public and private choices, links and opportunities. A systematic approach to water monitoring can provide a better support to public decision makers.

  15. Trend analysis of hospital resource utilization for prolonged mechanical ventilation patients in Taiwan: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Tien-Chiung; Lai, Yung-Fa; Tseng, Ching-Wan; Hong, Yong-Han; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2013-04-01

    The aging Taiwan population is expected to require vast medical resources, including prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). This study determined the trends in hospital resource utilization and associated factors in PMV patients in Taiwan. All patients who had received mechanical ventilation for > 21 days (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes 518.81-518.89) during 2004-2007 were recruited to the study. Administrative claims data obtained from the Bureau of National Health Insurance of Taiwan were analyzed. The study analyzed 65,181 patients who had received PMV during 2004-2007. The number of PMVs per 100,000 persons was 94.30 in 2004, and it gradually decreased to 89.38 in 2007, which was a change rate of -5.22%. During the study period, stay significantly decreased, from 35.12 days to 31.61 days, whereas hospital treatment costs significantly increased, from $7,933.17 to $8,257.52 (P providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization. Additionally, these analytical results should be applicable to similar populations in other countries.

  16. Population-level impact of white-nose syndrome on the endangered Indiana bat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; McKann, Patrick C.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

    2012-01-01

    Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (-0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.8, +1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,398-957,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006-2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI = -21.1, +2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

  17. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  18. Dynamic generalized linear models for monitoring endemic diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopes Antunes, Ana Carolina; Jensen, Dan; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to use a Dynamic Generalized Linear Model (DGLM) based on abinomial distribution with a linear trend, for monitoring the PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The DGLM was described and its performance for monitoring control...... and eradication programmes based on changes in PRRS sero-prevalence was explored. Results showed a declining trend in PRRS sero-prevalence between 2007 and 2014 suggesting that Danish herds are slowly eradicating PRRS. The simulation study demonstrated the flexibility of DGLMs in adapting to changes intrends...... in sero-prevalence. Based on this, it was possible to detect variations in the growth model component. This study is a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the use of DGLMs for monitoring endemic diseases. In addition, the principles stated might be useful in general research on monitoring and surveillance...

  19. Population mobility as a determinant of development and spatial distribution of population in Serbia in the last fifty years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spasovski Milena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The transition of migratory phenomena in Serbia is characterized by the transition from the predominant local migration in the 1960s, dominance of regional resettlement and migration between cities since the 1980s to the forced migration of the 1990s. These trends were parallel with the intensification of international migrations. These, along with methodological differences in conducting the migrant population in population censuses, are important determinants of changes in the spatial distribution of population potentials in Serbia. This paper evaluated the migration component from 1961 to 2011. or in the last half century, through consideration of its impact on the transformation of rural and urban areas of Serbia. The transitional trends in the relations between natural increase and net migration formed the modern population decline on one and population concentration on other side and their individual segments. In doing so, emigration and immigration trends significantly determine the relocation of the urban population, immigrant population, the population with a higher educational level and population in the tertiary and quaternary sector activity at the beginning of the XXI century. Finally, the display density and concentration of migrant population in the contemporary period also indicates the importance of economic, social and other determinants of spatial development in the transition of migratory phenomena in Serbia.

  20. CURRENT TRENDS OF ROMANIAN RURAL FAMILY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The profound changes experienced by the Romanian society had a profound social impact on the structure and functions of the rural family. The paper aims to highlight the main trends recorded using a number of indicators: ruralization rate, birth rate, infant mortality rate, percentage of children born outside marriage, fertility rate, percentage of population aged 65 and over. Statistics from censuses and statistical yearbooks were processed to identify the trends of the Romanian rural family: changes in reproductive behavior, increased aging, declining birth rates.