WorldWideScience

Sample records for models vary widely

  1. Power System Event Ranking Using a New Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling with a Wide Area Measurement System-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Bagher Abolhasani Jabali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Detecting critical power system events for Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA is required for reliability improvement. The approach proposed in this paper investigates the effects of events on dynamic behavior during nonlinear system response while common approaches use steady-state conditions after events. This paper presents some new and enhanced indices for event ranking based on time-domain simulation and polytopic linear parameter-varying (LPV modeling of a power system. In the proposed approach, a polytopic LPV representation is generated via linearization about some points of the nonlinear dynamic behavior of power system using wide-area measurement system (WAMS concepts and then event ranking is done based on the frequency response of the system models on the vertices. Therefore, the nonlinear behaviors of the system in the time of fault occurrence are considered for events ranking. The proposed algorithm is applied to a power system using nonlinear simulation. The comparison of the results especially in different fault conditions shows the advantages of the proposed approach and indices.

  2. Additional Surgery after Breast-Conserving Surgery Varies Widely

    Science.gov (United States)

    A study published in the Feb. 1, 2012, issue of JAMA found that the number of women who have one or more additional surgeries to remove suspected residual tumor tissue (re-excisions) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for breast cancer varies widely across surgeons and hospitals.

  3. Genome-wide DNA polymorphism analyses using VariScan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilella Albert J

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA sequence polymorphisms analysis can provide valuable information on the evolutionary forces shaping nucleotide variation, and provides an insight into the functional significance of genomic regions. The recent ongoing genome projects will radically improve our capabilities to detect specific genomic regions shaped by natural selection. Current available methods and software, however, are unsatisfactory for such genome-wide analysis. Results We have developed methods for the analysis of DNA sequence polymorphisms at the genome-wide scale. These methods, which have been tested on a coalescent-simulated and actual data files from mouse and human, have been implemented in the VariScan software package version 2.0. Additionally, we have also incorporated a graphical-user interface. The main features of this software are: i exhaustive population-genetic analyses including those based on the coalescent theory; ii analysis adapted to the shallow data generated by the high-throughput genome projects; iii use of genome annotations to conduct a comprehensive analyses separately for different functional regions; iv identification of relevant genomic regions by the sliding-window and wavelet-multiresolution approaches; v visualization of the results integrated with current genome annotations in commonly available genome browsers. Conclusion VariScan is a powerful and flexible suite of software for the analysis of DNA polymorphisms. The current version implements new algorithms, methods, and capabilities, providing an important tool for an exhaustive exploratory analysis of genome-wide DNA polymorphism data.

  4. Plant Mating Systems Often Vary Widely Among Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Whitehead

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Most flowering plants are hermaphroditic, yet the proportion of seeds fertilized by self and outcross pollen varies widely among species, ranging from predominant self-fertilization to exclusive outcrossing. A population's rate of outcrossing has important evolutionary outcomes as it influences genetic structure, effective population size, and offspring fitness. Because most mating system studies have quantified outcrossing rates for just one or two populations, past reviews of mating system diversity have not been able to characterize the extent of variation among populations. Here we present a new database of more than 30 years of mating system studies that report outcrossing rates for three or more populations per species. This survey, which includes 741 populations from 105 species, illustrates substantial and prevalent among-population variation in the mating system. Intermediate outcrossing rates (mixed mating are common; 63% of species had at least one mixed mating population. The variance among populations and within species was not significantly correlated with pollination mode or phylogeny. Our review underscores the need for studies exploring variation in the relative influence of ecological and genetic factors on the mating system, and how this varies among populations. We conclude that estimates of outcrossing rates from single populations are often highly unreliable indicators of the mating system of an entire species.

  5. Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

    2004-01-01

    A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

  6. Frontal Neurons Modulate Memory Retrieval across Widely Varying Temporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Hua; Williams, Ziv M.

    2015-01-01

    Once a memory has formed, it is thought to undergo a gradual transition within the brain from short- to long-term storage. This putative process, however, also poses a unique problem to the memory system in that the same learned items must also be retrieved across broadly varying time scales. Here, we find that neurons in the ventrolateral…

  7. Spatially varying dispersion to model breakthrough curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guangquan

    2011-01-01

    Often the water flowing in a karst conduit is a combination of contaminated water entering at a sinkhole and cleaner water released from the limestone matrix. Transport processes in the conduit are controlled by advection, mixing (dilution and dispersion), and retention-release. In this article, a karst transport model considering advection, spatially varying dispersion, and dilution (from matrix seepage) is developed. Two approximate Green's functions are obtained using transformation of variables, respectively, for the initial-value problem and for the boundary-value problem. A numerical example illustrates that mixing associated with strong spatially varying conduit dispersion can cause strong skewness and long tailing in spring breakthrough curves. Comparison of the predicted breakthrough curve against that measured from a dye-tracing experiment between Ames Sink and Indian Spring, Northwest Florida, shows that the conduit dispersivity can be as large as 400 m. Such a large number is believed to imply strong solute interaction between the conduit and the matrix and/or multiple flow paths in a conduit network. It is concluded that Taylor dispersion is not dominant in transport in a karst conduit, and the complicated retention-release process between mobile- and immobile waters may be described by strong spatially varying conduit dispersion. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  8. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  9. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  10. Behavior of cosmological models with varying G

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, J.D.; Parsons, P.

    1997-01-01

    We provide a detailed analysis of Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes in a wide range of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. We apply solution-generating methods to three parametrized classes of scalar-tensor theory which lead naturally to general relativity in the weak-field limit. We restrict the parameters which specify these theories by the requirements imposed by the weak-field tests of gravitation theories in the solar system and by the requirement that viable cosmological solutions be obtained. We construct a range of exact solutions for open, closed, and flat isotropic universes containing matter with equation of state p≤(1)/(3)ρ and in vacuum. We study the range of early- and late-time behaviors displayed, examine when there is a open-quotes bounceclose quotes at early times, and expansion maxima in closed models. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  11. Nutrient Intake Values for Folate during Pregnancy and Lactation Vary Widely around the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa A. Houghton

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Folate is a B-vitamin with particular importance during reproduction due to its role in the synthesis and maintenance of DNA. Folate is well known for its role in preventing neural tube defects (NTDs during the periconceptional period. There is also an increased need for folate throughout pregnancy to support optimal growth and development of the fetus and blood volume expansion and tissue growth of the mother. During lactation, women are at risk of folate deficiency due to increased demands to accommodate milk folate levels. Nutrient Intake Values (NIVs for folate have been calculated to take into account additional needs during pregnancy and lactation. However, these values vary widely between countries. For example, the folate requirement that is set to meet the needs of almost all healthy women during pregnancy varies from 300 µg/day in the United Kingdom to 750 µg/day in Mexico. Currently, there is no accepted standardized terminology or framework for establishing NIVs. This article reviews country-specific NIVs for folate during pregnancy and lactation and the basis for setting these reference values.

  12. Estimates of Continental Ancestry Vary Widely among Individuals with the Same mtDNA Haplogroup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Leslie S.; Magnaye, Kevin M.; Bigham, Abigail W.; Akey, Joshua M.; Bamshad, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    The association between a geographical region and an mtDNA haplogroup(s) has provided the basis for using mtDNA haplogroups to infer an individual’s place of origin and genetic ancestry. Although it is well known that ancestry inferences using mtDNA haplogroups and those using genome-wide markers are frequently discrepant, little empirical information exists on the magnitude and scope of such discrepancies between multiple mtDNA haplogroups and worldwide populations. We compared genetic-ancestry inferences made by mtDNA-haplogroup membership to those made by autosomal SNPs in ∼940 samples of the Human Genome Diversity Panel and recently admixed populations from the 1000 Genomes Project. Continental-ancestry proportions often varied widely among individuals sharing the same mtDNA haplogroup. For only half of mtDNA haplogroups did the highest average continental-ancestry proportion match the highest continental-ancestry proportion of a majority of individuals with that haplogroup. Prediction of an individual’s mtDNA haplogroup from his or her continental-ancestry proportions was often incorrect. Collectively, these results indicate that for most individuals in the worldwide populations sampled, mtDNA-haplogroup membership provides limited information about either continental ancestry or continental region of origin. PMID:25620206

  13. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric

  14. An R package "VariABEL" for genome-wide searching of potentially interacting loci by testing genotypic variance heterogeneity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Struchalin Maksim V

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hundreds of new loci have been discovered by genome-wide association studies of human traits. These studies mostly focused on associations between single locus and a trait. Interactions between genes and between genes and environmental factors are of interest as they can improve our understanding of the genetic background underlying complex traits. Genome-wide testing of complex genetic models is a computationally demanding task. Moreover, testing of such models leads to multiple comparison problems that reduce the probability of new findings. Assuming that the genetic model underlying a complex trait can include hundreds of genes and environmental factors, testing of these models in genome-wide association studies represent substantial difficulties. We and Pare with colleagues (2010 developed a method allowing to overcome such difficulties. The method is based on the fact that loci which are involved in interactions can show genotypic variance heterogeneity of a trait. Genome-wide testing of such heterogeneity can be a fast scanning approach which can point to the interacting genetic variants. Results In this work we present a new method, SVLM, allowing for variance heterogeneity analysis of imputed genetic variation. Type I error and power of this test are investigated and contracted with these of the Levene's test. We also present an R package, VariABEL, implementing existing and newly developed tests. Conclusions Variance heterogeneity analysis is a promising method for detection of potentially interacting loci. New method and software package developed in this work will facilitate such analysis in genome-wide context.

  15. Surface and canopy fuels vary widely in 24-yr old postfire lodgepole pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, K. N.; Turner, M.; Romme, W. H.; Tinker, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme fire seasons have become common in western North America, and the extent of young postfire forests has grown as fire frequency and annual area burned have increased. These young forests will set the stage for future fires, but an assessment of fuel loads in young forests is lacking. The rate of fuel re-accumulation and fuels variability in postfire forest landscapes is needed to anticipate future fire occurrence and behavior in the American West. We studied fuel characteristics in young lodgepole pine forests that regenerated after the 1988 fires in Yellowstone National Park to address two questions: (1) How do surface fuel characteristics change with time-since-fire? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary across the Yellowstone landscape 24 years postfire? During summer 2012, we re-measured surface fuels in 11 plots that were established in 1996 (8 yrs post fire), and we measured surface and canopy fuels in 82 stands (each 0.25 ha) distributed across the Yellowstone post-1988 fire landscape. In the remeasured plots, surface fuel loads generally increased over the last 16 years. One-hr fuels did not change between sample dates, but all other fuel classes (i.e., 10-hr, 100-hr, and 1000-hr) increased by a factor of two or three. Within the sample timeframe, variability of fuel loads within stands decreased significantly. The coefficients of variation decreased for all fuel classes by 23% to 67%. Data from the 82 plots revealed that canopy and surface fuels in 24-year-old stands varied tremendously across the Yellowstone landscape. Live tree densities spanned 0 to 344,067 trees ha-1, producing a mean available canopy fuel load of 7.7 Mg ha-1 and a wide range from 0 to 47 Mg ha-1. Total surface fuel loads averaged 130 Mg ha-1 and ranged from 49 to 229 Mg ha-1, of which 90% was in the 1000-hr fuel class. The mass of fine surface fuels (i.e., litter/duff, 1-hr, 10-hr, and herbaceous fuels) and canopy fuels (i.e., foliage and 1-hr branches) were strongly and

  16. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis of soybean primary root under varying water-deficit conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Li; Prince, Silvas; Valliyodan, Babu; Joshi, Trupti; Maldonado dos Santos, Joao V; Wang, Jiaojiao; Lin, Li; Wan, Jinrong; Wang, Yongqin; Xu, Dong; Nguyen, Henry T

    2016-01-15

    Soybean is a major crop that provides an important source of protein and oil to humans and animals, but its production can be dramatically decreased by the occurrence of drought stress. Soybeans can survive drought stress if there is a robust and deep root system at the early vegetative growth stage. However, little is known about the genome-wide molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root system architecture. This study was performed to gain knowledge on transcriptome changes and related molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root development under water limited conditions. The soybean Williams 82 genotype was subjected to very mild stress (VMS), mild stress (MS) and severe stress (SS) conditions, as well as recovery from the severe stress after re-watering (SR). In total, 6,609 genes in the roots showed differential expression patterns in response to different water-deficit stress levels. Genes involved in hormone (Auxin/Ethylene), carbohydrate, and cell wall-related metabolism (XTH/lipid/flavonoids/lignin) pathways were differentially regulated in the soybean root system. Several transcription factors (TFs) regulating root growth and responses under varying water-deficit conditions were identified and the expression patterns of six TFs were found to be common across the stress levels. Further analysis on the whole plant level led to the finding of tissue-specific or water-deficit levels specific regulation of transcription factors. Analysis of the over-represented motif of different gene groups revealed several new cis-elements associated with different levels of water deficit. The expression patterns of 18 genes were confirmed byquantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction method and demonstrated the accuracy and effectiveness of RNA-Seq. The primary root specific transcriptome in soybean can enable a better understanding of the root response to water deficit conditions. The genes detected in root tissues that were associated with

  17. Estimating varying coefficients for partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-09-01

    Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model complex dynamical systems in multiple dimensions, and their parameters often have important scientific interpretations. In some applications, PDE parameters are not constant but can change depending on the values of covariates, a feature that we call varying coefficients. We propose a parameter cascading method to estimate varying coefficients in PDE models from noisy data. Our estimates of the varying coefficients are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The performance of our method is evaluated by a simulation study and by an empirical study estimating three varying coefficients in a PDE model arising from LIDAR data. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  18. The deforestation debate; estimates vary widely over the extent of forest loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monastersky, R.

    1993-01-01

    While tropical forests are vanishing at a disturbing rate, the wide-spread disagreement over deforestation estimates makes it difficult for government officials and scientists to assess the problem. In turn this hampers efforts to gauge the threat of related issues such as habitat destruction and global warming. Creating more confusion is the realization that partly deforested, but not stripped, lands have not been completely taken into account. In addition lands in tropical regions but outside the tropical rain forest are poorly represented. This article uses Brazil as an example of the conflicting estimates. The efforts of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to improve its estimates are described. An on-going NASA project to help is also described

  19. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  20. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  1. Pathogen exposure varies widely among sympatric populations of wild and domestic felids across the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N; Lappin, Michael R; Boydston, Erin E; Lyren, Lisa M; Alldredge, Mathew; Logan, Kenneth A; Sweanor, Linda L; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Fisher, Robert N; Vickers, T Winston; Boyce, Walter; Mcbride, Roy; Cunningham, Mark C; Jennings, Megan; Lewis, Jesse; Lunn, Tamika; Crooks, Kevin R; Vandewoude, Sue

    2016-03-01

    Understanding how landscape, host, and pathogen traits contribute to disease exposure requires systematic evaluations of pathogens within and among host species and geographic regions. The relative importance of these attributes is critical for management of wildlife and mitigating domestic animal and human disease, particularly given rapid ecological changes, such as urbanization. We screened > 1000 samples from sympatric populations of puma (Puma concolor), bobcat (Lynx rufus), and domestic cat (Felis catus) across urban gradients in six sites, representing three regions, in North America for exposure to a representative suite of bacterial, protozoal, and viral pathogens (Bartonella sp., Toxoplasma gondii, feline herpesvirus-1, feline panleukopenea virus, feline calicivirus, and feline immunodeficiency virus). We evaluated prevalence within each species, and examined host trait and land cover determinants of exposure; providing an unprecedented analysis of factors relating to potential for infections in domesticated and wild felids. Prevalence differed among host species (highest for puma and lowest for domestic cat) and was greater for indirectly transmitted pathogens. Sex was inconsistently predictive of exposure to directly transmitted pathogens only, and age infrequently predictive of both direct and indirectly transmitted pathogens. Determinants of pathogen exposure were widely divergent between the wild felid species. For puma, suburban land use predicted increased exposure to Bartonella sp. in southern California, and FHV-1 exposure increased near urban edges in Florida. This may suggest interspecific transmission with domestic cats via flea vectors (California) and direct contact (Florida) around urban boundaries. Bobcats captured near urban areas had increased exposure to T. gondii in Florida, suggesting an urban source of prey Bobcats captured near urban areas in Colorado and Florida had higher FIV exposure, possibly suggesting increased intraspecific

  2. Pathogen exposure varies widely among sympatric populations of wild and domestic felids across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N.; Lappin, Michael R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Alldredge, Mathew W.; Logan, Kenneth A.; Sweanor, Linda L.; Riley, Seth P.D.; Serieys, Laurel E.K.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Boyce, Walter M.; McBride, Roy; Cunnigham, Mark C.; Jennings, Megan; Lewis, Jesse S.; Lunn, Tamika; Crooks, Kevin R.; VandeWoude, Sue

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how landscape, host, and pathogen traits contribute to disease exposure requires systematic evaluations of pathogens within and among host species and geographic regions. The relative importance of these attributes is critical for management of wildlife and mitigating domestic animal and human disease, particularly given rapid ecological changes, such as urbanization. We screened >1,000 samples from sympatric populations of puma (Puma concolor), bobcat (Lynx rufus) and domestic cat (Felis catus) across urban gradients in six sites, representing three regions, in North America for exposure to a representative suite of bacterial, protozoal and viral pathogens (Bartonella sp., Toxoplasma gondii, feline herpesvirus-1, feline panleukopenea virus, feline calicivirus, feline immunodeficiency virus). We evaluated prevalence within each species, and examined host trait and land cover determinants of exposure-providing an unprecedented analysis of factors relating to potential for infections in domesticated and wild felids. Prevalence differed among host species (highest for puma and lowest for domestic cat) and was greater for indirectly transmitted pathogens. Sex was inconsistently predictive of exposure to directly transmitted pathogens only, and age infrequently predictive of both direct and indirectly transmitted pathogens. Determinants of pathogen exposure were widely divergent between the wild felid species. For puma, suburban landuse predicted increased exposure to Bartonella sp. in southern California, and FHV-1 exposure increased near urban edges in Florida. This may suggest inter-specific transmission with domestic cats via flea vectors (California) and direct contact (Florida) around urban boundaries. Bobcats captured near urban areas had increased exposure to T. gondii in Florida, suggesting an urban source of prey. Bobcats captured near urban areas in Colorado and Florida had higher FIV exposure, possibly suggesting increased intra

  3. Initial locomotor sensitivity to cocaine varies widely among inbred mouse strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiltshire, T; Ervin, R B; Duan, H; Bogue, M A; Zamboni, W C; Cook, S; Chung, W; Zou, F; Tarantino, L M

    2015-03-01

    Initial sensitivity to psychostimulants can predict subsequent use and abuse in humans. Acute locomotor activation in response to psychostimulants is commonly used as an animal model of initial drug sensitivity and has been shown to have a substantial genetic component. Identifying the specific genetic differences that lead to phenotypic differences in initial drug sensitivity can advance our understanding of the processes that lead to addiction. Phenotyping inbred mouse strain panels are frequently used as a first step for studying the genetic architecture of complex traits. We assessed locomotor activation following a single, acute 20 mg/kg dose of cocaine (COC) in males from 45 inbred mouse strains and observed significant phenotypic variation across strains indicating a substantial genetic component. We also measured levels of COC, the active metabolite, norcocaine and the major inactive metabolite, benzoylecgonine, in plasma and brain in the same set of inbred strains. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and behavioral data were significantly correlated, but at a level that indicates that PK alone does not account for the behavioral differences observed across strains. Phenotypic data from this reference population of inbred strains can be utilized in studies aimed at examining the role of psychostimulant-induced locomotor activation on drug reward and reinforcement and to test theories about addiction processes. Moreover, these data serve as a starting point for identifying genes that alter sensitivity to the locomotor stimulatory effects of COC. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society.

  4. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  5. Modelling Acoustic Wave Propagation in Axisymmetric Varying-Radius Waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    A computationally fast and accurate model (a set of coupled ordinary differential equations) for fluid sound-wave propagation in infinite axisymmetric waveguides of varying radius is proposed. The model accounts for fluid heat conduction and fluid irrotational viscosity. The model problem is solved...... by expanding solutions in terms of cross-sectional eigenfunctions following Stevenson’s method. A transfer matrix can be easily constructed from simple model responses of a given waveguide and later used in computing the response to any complex wave input. Energy losses due to heat conduction and viscous...

  6. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  7. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  8. Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

    2017-12-01

    Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

  9. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  10. Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, M. S.

    2009-10-01

    Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

  11. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  12. H1N1 influenza viruses varying widely in hemagglutinin stability transmit efficiently from swine to swine and to ferrets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Russier

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available A pandemic-capable influenza virus requires a hemagglutinin (HA surface glycoprotein that is immunologically unseen by most people and is capable of supporting replication and transmission in humans. HA stabilization has been linked to 2009 pH1N1 pandemic potential in humans and H5N1 airborne transmissibility in the ferret model. Swine have served as an intermediate host for zoonotic influenza viruses, yet the evolutionary pressure exerted by this host on HA stability was unknown. For over 70 contemporary swine H1 and H3 isolates, we measured HA activation pH to range from pH 5.1 to 5.9 for H1 viruses and pH 5.3 to 5.8 for H3 viruses. Thus, contemporary swine isolates vary widely in HA stability, having values favored by both avian (pH >5.5 and human and ferret (pH ≤5.5 species. Using an early 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1 virus backbone, we generated three viruses differing by one HA residue that only altered HA stability: WT (pH 5.5, HA1-Y17H (pH 6.0, and HA2-R106K (pH 5.3. All three replicated in pigs and transmitted from pig-to-pig and pig-to-ferret. WT and R106 viruses maintained HA genotype and phenotype after transmission. Y17H (pH 6.0 acquired HA mutations that stabilized the HA protein to pH 5.8 after transmission to pigs and 5.5 after transmission to ferrets. Overall, we found swine support a broad range of HA activation pH for contact transmission and many recent swine H1N1 and H3N2 isolates have stabilized (human-like HA proteins. This constitutes a heightened pandemic risk and underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance and control efforts for swine viruses.

  13. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  14. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  15. Genome-wide CpG island methylation and intergenic demethylation propensities vary among different tumor sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung-Tae; Wiemels, Joseph L

    2016-02-18

    The epigenetic landscape of cancer includes both focal hypermethylation and broader hypomethylation in a genome-wide manner. By means of a comprehensive genomic analysis on 6637 tissues of 21 tumor types, we here show that the degrees of overall methylation in CpG island (CGI) and demethylation in intergenic regions, defined as 'backbone', largely vary among different tumors. Depending on tumor type, both CGI methylation and backbone demethylation are often associated with clinical, epidemiological and biological features such as age, sex, smoking history, anatomic location, histological type and grade, stage, molecular subtype and biological pathways. We found connections between CGI methylation and hypermutability, microsatellite instability, IDH1 mutation, 19p gain and polycomb features, and backbone demethylation with chromosomal instability, NSD1 and TP53 mutations, 5q and 19p loss and long repressive domains. These broad epigenetic patterns add a new dimension to our understanding of tumor biology and its clinical implications. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  16. Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Edward; Brown, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

  17. A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.

    2010-01-01

    The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.

  18. Multivariate time-varying volatility modeling using probabilistic fuzzy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basturk, N.; Almeida, R.J.; Golan, R.; Kaymak, U.

    2016-01-01

    Methods to accurately analyze financial risk have drawn considerable attention in financial institutions. One difficulty in financial risk analysis is the fact that banks and other financial institutions invest in several assets which show time-varying volatilities and hence time-varying financial

  19. Soil Compressibility Models for a Wide Stress Range

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song-Hun; Santamarina, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Soil compressibility models with physically correct asymptotic void ratios are required to analyze situations that involve a wide stress range. Previously suggested models and other functions are adapted to satisfy asymptotic void ratios at low

  20. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States.......01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach....

  1. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2017-03-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be

  2. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picone, Rico A.R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  3. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picone, Rico A.R., E-mail: rpicone@stmartin.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Garbini, Joseph L. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Sidles, John A. [Department of Orthopædics, University of Washington, Seattle (United States)

    2015-01-15

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  4. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picone, Rico A. R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]).

  5. An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal

  6. Spherical collapse model in time varying vacuum cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis; Sola, Joan

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the virialization of cosmic structures in the framework of flat Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker cosmological models, in which the vacuum energy density evolves with time. In particular, our analysis focuses on the study of spherical matter perturbations, as they decouple from the background expansion, 'turn around', and finally collapse. We generalize the spherical collapse model in the case when the vacuum energy is a running function of the Hubble rate, Λ=Λ(H). A particularly well-motivated model of this type is the so-called quantum field vacuum, in which Λ(H) is a quadratic function, Λ(H)=n 0 +n 2 H 2 , with n 0 ≠0. This model was previously studied by our team using the latest high quality cosmological data to constrain its free parameters, as well as the predicted cluster formation rate. It turns out that the corresponding Hubble expansion history resembles that of the traditional ΛCDM cosmology. We use this Λ(t)CDM framework to illustrate the fact that the properties of the spherical collapse model (virial density, collapse factor, etc.) depend on the choice of the considered vacuum energy (homogeneous or clustered). In particular, if the distribution of the vacuum energy is clustered, then, under specific conditions, we can produce more concentrated structures with respect to the homogeneous vacuum energy case.

  7. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  8. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  9. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  10. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  11. Mathematical modeling of groundwater contamination with varying velocity field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Das Pintu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, analytical models for predicting groundwater contamination in isotropic and homogeneous porous formations are derived. The impact of dispersion and diffusion coefficients is included in the solution of the advection-dispersion equation (ADE, subjected to transient (time-dependent boundary conditions at the origin. A retardation factor and zero-order production terms are included in the ADE. Analytical solutions are obtained using the Laplace Integral Transform Technique (LITT and the concept of linear isotherm. For illustration, analytical solutions for linearly space- and time-dependent hydrodynamic dispersion coefficients along with molecular diffusion coefficients are presented. Analytical solutions are explored for the Peclet number. Numerical solutions are obtained by explicit finite difference methods and are compared with analytical solutions. Numerical results are analysed for different types of geological porous formations i.e., aquifer and aquitard. The accuracy of results is evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE.

  12. Numerical modeling of rapidly varying flows using HEC-RAS and WSPG models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Prasada; Hromadka, Theodore V

    2016-01-01

    The performance of two popular hydraulic models (HEC-RAS and WSPG) for modeling hydraulic jump in an open channel is investigated. The numerical solutions are compared with a new experimental data set obtained for varying channel bottom slopes and flow rates. Both the models satisfactorily predict the flow depths and location of the jump. The end results indicate that the numerical models output is sensitive to the value of chosen roughness coefficient. For this application, WSPG model is easier to implement with few input variables.

  13. Modelling suction instabilities in soils at varying degrees of saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buscarnera Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetting paths imparted by the natural environment and/or human activities affect the state of soils in the near-surface, promoting transitions across different regimes of saturation. This paper discusses a set of techniques aimed at quantifying the role of hydrologic processes on the hydro-mechanical stability of soil specimens subjected to saturation events. Emphasis is given to the mechanical conditions leading to coupled flow/deformation instabilities. For this purpose, energy balance arguments for three-phase systems are used to derive second-order work expressions applicable to various regimes of saturation. Controllability analyses are then performed to relate such work input with constitutive singularities that reflect the loss of strength under coupled and/or uncoupled hydro-mechanical forcing. A suction-dependent plastic model is finally used to track the evolution of stability conditions in samples subjected to wetting, thus quantifying the growth of the potential for coupled failure modes upon increasing degree of saturation. These findings are eventually linked with the properties of the field equations that govern pore pressure transients, thus disclosing a conceptual link between the onset of coupled hydro-mechanical failures and the evolution of suction with time. Such results point out that mathematical instabilities caused by a non-linear suction dependent behaviour play an important role in the advanced constitutive and/or numerical tools that are commonly used for the analysis of geomechanical problems in the unsaturated zone, and further stress that the relation between suction transients and soil deformations is a key factor for the interpretation of runaway failures caused by intense saturation events.

  14. Soil Compressibility Models for a Wide Stress Range

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song-Hun

    2016-03-03

    Soil compressibility models with physically correct asymptotic void ratios are required to analyze situations that involve a wide stress range. Previously suggested models and other functions are adapted to satisfy asymptotic void ratios at low and high stress levels; all updated models involve four parameters. Compiled consolidation data for remolded and natural clays are used to test the models and to develop correlations between model parameters and index properties. Models can adequately fit soil compression data for a wide range of stresses and soil types; in particular, models that involve the power of the stress σ\\'β display higher flexibility to capture the brittle response of some natural soils. The use of a single continuous function avoids numerical discontinuities or the need for ad hoc procedures to determine the yield stress. The tangent stiffness-readily computed for all models-should not be mistaken for the small-strain constant-fabric stiffness. © 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.

  15. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

  16. A method for fitting regression splines with varying polynomial order in the linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Lloyd J; Stewart, Paul W; MacDougall, James E; Helms, Ronald W

    2006-02-15

    The linear mixed model has become a widely used tool for longitudinal analysis of continuous variables. The use of regression splines in these models offers the analyst additional flexibility in the formulation of descriptive analyses, exploratory analyses and hypothesis-driven confirmatory analyses. We propose a method for fitting piecewise polynomial regression splines with varying polynomial order in the fixed effects and/or random effects of the linear mixed model. The polynomial segments are explicitly constrained by side conditions for continuity and some smoothness at the points where they join. By using a reparameterization of this explicitly constrained linear mixed model, an implicitly constrained linear mixed model is constructed that simplifies implementation of fixed-knot regression splines. The proposed approach is relatively simple, handles splines in one variable or multiple variables, and can be easily programmed using existing commercial software such as SAS or S-plus. The method is illustrated using two examples: an analysis of longitudinal viral load data from a study of subjects with acute HIV-1 infection and an analysis of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profiles.

  17. The features of modelling semiconductor lasers with a wide contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rzhanov Alexey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aspects of calculating the dynamics and statics of powerful semiconductor laser diodes radiation are investigated. It takes into account the main physical mechanisms influencing power, spectral composition, far and near field of laser radiation. It outlines a dynamic distributed model of a semiconductor laser with a wide contact and possible algorithms for its implementation.

  18. Model Study of Wave Overtopping of Marine Structure for a Wide Range of Geometric Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2000-01-01

    The objective of the study described in this paper is to enable estimation of wave overtopping rates for slopes/ramps given by a wide range of geometric parameters when subjected to varying wave conditions. To achieve this a great number of model tests are carried out in a wave tank using irregul...... 2-D waves. On the basis of the first part of these tests an exponential overtopping expression for a linear slope, including the effect of limited draught and varying slope angle, is presented. The plans for further tests with other slope geometries are described....

  19. Modeling Nonstationary Emotion Dynamics in Dyads using a Time-Varying Vector-Autoregressive Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringmann, Laura F; Ferrer, Emilio; Hamaker, Ellen L; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2018-01-01

    Emotion dynamics are likely to arise in an interpersonal context. Standard methods to study emotions in interpersonal interaction are limited because stationarity is assumed. This means that the dynamics, for example, time-lagged relations, are invariant across time periods. However, this is generally an unrealistic assumption. Whether caused by an external (e.g., divorce) or an internal (e.g., rumination) event, emotion dynamics are prone to change. The semi-parametric time-varying vector-autoregressive (TV-VAR) model is based on well-studied generalized additive models, implemented in the software R. The TV-VAR can explicitly model changes in temporal dependency without pre-existing knowledge about the nature of change. A simulation study is presented, showing that the TV-VAR model is superior to the standard time-invariant VAR model when the dynamics change over time. The TV-VAR model is applied to empirical data on daily feelings of positive affect (PA) from a single couple. Our analyses indicate reliable changes in the male's emotion dynamics over time, but not in the female's-which were not predicted by her own affect or that of her partner. This application illustrates the usefulness of using a TV-VAR model to detect changes in the dynamics in a system.

  20. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  1. Linear parameter-varying modeling and control of the steam temperature in a Canadian SCWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Peiwei, E-mail: sunpeiwei@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Jianmin; Su, Guanghui

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Nonlinearity of Canadian SCWR is analyzed based on step responses and Nyquist plots. • LPV model is derived through Jacobian linearization and curve fitting. • An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized for the steam temperature. • The control performance is evaluated by step disturbances and wide range operation. • The controller can stabilize the system and reject the reactor power disturbance. - Abstract: The Canadian direct-cycle Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR) is a pressure-tube type SCWR under development in Canada. The dynamics of the steam temperature have a high degree of nonlinearity and are highly sensitive to reactor power disturbances. Traditional gain scheduling control cannot theoretically guarantee stability for all operating regions. The control performance can also be deteriorated when the controllers are switched. In this paper, a linear parameter-varying (LPV) strategy is proposed to solve such problems. Jacobian linearization and curve fitting are applied to derive the LPV model, which is verified using a nonlinear dynamic model and determined to be sufficiently accurate for control studies. An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized to stabilize the steam temperature system and reject reactor power disturbances. The LPV steam temperature controller is implemented using a nonlinear dynamic model, and step changes in the setpoints and typical load patterns are carried out in the testing process. It is demonstrated through numerical simulation that the LPV controller not only stabilizes the steam temperature under different disturbances but also efficiently rejects reactor power disturbances and suppresses the steam temperature variation at different power levels. The LPV approach is effective in solving control problems of the steam temperature in the Canadian SCWR.

  2. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  3. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  4. Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunjai Nakshatharan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.

  5. Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

  6. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vest Christiansen, Anders; Auken, Esben; Marker, Pernille Aabye

    for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all......-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which...

  7. Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

  8. Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helbich, M; Griffith, D

    2016-01-01

    Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

  9. Perfect fluid Bianchi Type-I cosmological models with time varying G ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Bianchi Type-I cosmological models containing perfect fluid with time vary- ing G and Λ have been presented. The solutions obtained represent an expansion scalar θ bearing a constant ratio to the anisotropy in the direction of space-like unit vector λi. Of the two models obtained, one has negative vacuum energy ...

  10. Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeyhun I. Mikayilov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan.

  11. Modelling of monovacancy diffusion in W over wide temperature range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukonte, L.; Ahlgren, T.; Heinola, K.

    2014-01-01

    The diffusion of monovacancies in tungsten is studied computationally over a wide temperature range from 1300 K until the melting point of the material. Our modelling is based on Molecular Dynamics technique and Density Functional Theory. The monovacancy migration barriers are calculated using nudged elastic band method for nearest and next-nearest neighbour monovacancy jumps. The diffusion pre-exponential factor for monovacancy diffusion is found to be two to three orders of magnitude higher than commonly used in computational studies, resulting in attempt frequency of the order 10 15 Hz. Multiple nearest neighbour jumps of monovacancy are found to play an important role in the contribution to the total diffusion coefficient, especially at temperatures above 2/3 of T m , resulting in an upward curvature of the Arrhenius diagram. The probabilities for different nearest neighbour jumps for monovacancy in W are calculated at different temperatures

  12. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  13. Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng

    2018-07-01

    In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Kosterlitz-Thouless transitions in simple spin-models with strongly varying vortex densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Himbergen, J.E.J.M. van

    1985-01-01

    A generalized XY-model, consisting of a family of nearest neighbour potentials of varying shape, for classical planar spins on a two-dimensional square lattice is analysed by a combination of Migdal-Kadanoff real-space renormalization and Monte Carlo simulations on a sequence of finite lattices of

  15. Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Ferreira, Eva; Orbe, Susan

    This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases...

  16. Artificial neural network modeling of DDGS flowability with varying process and storage parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neural Network (NN) modeling techniques were used to predict flowability behavior in distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prepared with varying CDS (10, 15, and 20%, wb), drying temperature (100, 200, and 300°C), cooling temperature (-12, 0, and 35°C) and cooling time (0 and 1 month) levels....

  17. Thermodynamic Property Model of Wide-Fluid Phase Propane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Made Astina

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available A new thermodynamic property model for propane is expressed in form of the Helmholtz free energy function. It consists of eight terms of the ideal-gas part and eighteen terms of the residual part. Accurate experimental data of fluid properties and theoretical approach from the intermolecular potential were simultaneously considered in the development to insure accuracy and to improve reliability of the equation of state over wide range of pressures and temperatures. Based on the state range of experimental data used in the model development, the validity range is judged from the triple-point of 85.48 K to temperature of 450 K and pressure up to 60 MPa. The uncertainties with respect to different properties are estimated to be 0.03% in ideal-gas isobaric specific heat, 0.2% in liquid phase density, 0.3% in gaseous phase density 1% in specific heats, 0.1% in vapor-pressure except at very low temperatures, 0.05% in saturated-liquid density, 0.02% in speed of sound of the gaseous phase and 1% in speed of sound of the liquid phase.

  18. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  19. Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

  20. A hepatitis C virus infection model with time-varying drug effectiveness: solution and analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica M Conway

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simple models of therapy for viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV or human immunodeficiency virus assume that, once therapy is started, the drug has a constant effectiveness. More realistic models have assumed either that the drug effectiveness depends on the drug concentration or that the effectiveness varies over time. Here a previously introduced varying-effectiveness (VE model is studied mathematically in the context of HCV infection. We show that while the model is linear, it has no closed-form solution due to the time-varying nature of the effectiveness. We then show that the model can be transformed into a Bessel equation and derive an analytic solution in terms of modified Bessel functions, which are defined as infinite series, with time-varying arguments. Fitting the solution to data from HCV infected patients under therapy has yielded values for the parameters in the model. We show that for biologically realistic parameters, the predicted viral decay on therapy is generally biphasic and resembles that predicted by constant-effectiveness (CE models. We introduce a general method for determining the time at which the transition between decay phases occurs based on calculating the point of maximum curvature of the viral decay curve. For the parameter regimes of interest, we also find approximate solutions for the VE model and establish the asymptotic behavior of the system. We show that the rate of second phase decay is determined by the death rate of infected cells multiplied by the maximum effectiveness of therapy, whereas the rate of first phase decline depends on multiple parameters including the rate of increase of drug effectiveness with time.

  1. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  2. Modeling and Analysis of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Varying Cross-Sectional Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maiara Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modeling and on the experimental verification of electromechanically coupled beams with varying cross-sectional area for piezoelectric energy harvesting. The governing equations are formulated using the Rayleigh-Ritz method and Euler-Bernoulli assumptions. A load resistance is considered in the electrical domain for the estimate of the electric power output of each geometric configuration. The model is first verified against the analytical results for a rectangular bimorph with tip mass reported in the literature. The experimental verification of the model is also reported for a tapered bimorph cantilever with tip mass. The effects of varying cross-sectional area and tip mass on the electromechanical behavior of piezoelectric energy harvesters are also discussed. An issue related to the estimation of the optimal load resistance (that gives the maximum power output on beam shape optimization problems is also discussed.

  3. Effects of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzat, S.; Farengo, R.

    2005-01-01

    The consequences of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model, which captures the basic features of transport in plasmas and was recently introduced in Ref. 1 [B. Ph. van Milligen et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2272 (2004)], are studied. Different superdiffusive transport mechanisms generated by a family of distributions with algebraic decays (Tsallis distributions) are considered. It is observed that the possibility of changing the superdiffusive transport mechanism improves the flexibility of the model for describing different situations. The use of the model to describe the low (L) and high (H) confinement modes is also analyzed

  4. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-10-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing algorithms, such as Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMLE) and stochastic approximation, often fail for this problem in the presence of model degeneracy. In this article, we introduce the varying truncation stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo (SAMCMC) algorithm to tackle this problem. The varying truncation mechanism enables the algorithm to choose an appropriate starting point and an appropriate gain factor sequence, and thus to produce a reasonable parameter estimate for the ERGM even in the presence of model degeneracy. The numerical results indicate that the varying truncation SAMCMC algorithm can significantly outperform the MCMLE and stochastic approximation algorithms: for degenerate ERGMs, MCMLE and stochastic approximation often fail to produce any reasonable parameter estimates, while SAMCMC can do; for nondegenerate ERGMs, SAMCMC can work as well as or better than MCMLE and stochastic approximation. The data and source codes used for this article are available online as supplementary materials. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  5. Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

    2013-02-01

    When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  6. Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

    2014-05-01

    Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.

  7. PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TIME VARYING PARAMETER (TVP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I PUTU GEDE DIAN GERRY SUWEDAYANA

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali using Time Varying Parameter (TVP model based on inflation of Indonesia and exchange rate AUD to IDR from January 2010 – December 2015 as explanatory variables. TVP model is specified in a state space model and estimated by Kalman filter algorithm. The result shows that the TVP model can be used to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali because it satisfied the assumption that the residuals are distributed normally and the residuals in the measurement and transition equations are not correlated. The estimated TVP model is . This model has a value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE is equal to dan root mean square percentage error (RMSPE is equal to . The number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali for the next five periods is predicted: ; ; ; ; and (January - May 2016.

  8. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  9. Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

    2018-05-01

    Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

  10. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Anyfantaki

    2011-01-01

    analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

  12. Varying Coefficient Panel Data Model in the Presence of Endogenous Selectivity and Fixed Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Malikov, Emir; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Sun, Yiguo

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers a flexible panel data sample selection model in which (i) the outcome equation is permitted to take a semiparametric, varying coefficient form to capture potential parameter heterogeneity in the relationship of interest, (ii) both the outcome and (parametric) selection equations contain unobserved fixed effects and (iii) selection is generalized to a polychotomous case. We propose a two-stage estimator. Given consistent parameter estimates from the selection equation obta...

  13. Delay-Dependent Asymptotic Stability of Cohen-Grossberg Models with Multiple Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liao

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical behavior of a class of Cohen-Grossberg models with multiple time-varying delays is studied in detail. Sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure local and global asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium of this network are derived by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals. The obtained conditions are shown to be less conservative and restrictive than those reported in the known literature. Some numerical examples are included to demonstrate our results.

  14. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  15. A simple analytical model for dynamics of time-varying target leverage ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, C. F.; Hui, C. H.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we have formulated a simple theoretical model for the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio of a firm under some assumptions based upon empirical observations. In our theoretical model the time evolution of the target leverage ratio of a firm can be derived self-consistently from a set of coupled Ito's stochastic differential equations governing the leverage ratios of an ensemble of firms by the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation approach. The theoretically derived time paths of the target leverage ratio bear great resemblance to those used in the time-dependent stationary-leverage (TDSL) model [Hui et al., Int. Rev. Financ. Analy. 15, 220 (2006)]. Thus, our simple model is able to provide a theoretical foundation for the selected time paths of the target leverage ratio in the TDSL model. We also examine how the pace of the adjustment of a firm's target ratio, the volatility of the leverage ratio and the current leverage ratio affect the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio. Hence, with the proposed dynamics of the time-dependent target leverage ratio, the TDSL model can be readily applied to generate the default probabilities of individual firms and to assess the default risk of the firms.

  16. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  17. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  18. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  19. Identification of Affine Linear Parameter Varying Models for Adaptive Interventions in Fibromyalgia Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, P Lopes; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Azevedo-Perdicoúlis, T-P; Ramos, J A; Younger, Jarred

    2013-12-31

    There is good evidence that naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has a strong neuroprotective role and may be a potential drug for the treatment of fibromyalgia. In previous work, some of the authors used experimental clinical data to identify input-output linear time invariant models that were used to extract useful information about the effect of this drug on fibromyalgia symptoms. Additional factors such as anxiety, stress, mood, and headache, were considered as additive disturbances. However, it seems reasonable to think that these factors do not affect the drug actuation, but only the way in which a participant perceives how the drug actuates on herself. Under this hypothesis the linear time invariant models can be replaced by State-Space Affine Linear Parameter Varying models where the disturbances are seen as a scheduling signal signal only acting at the parameters of the output equation. In this paper a new algorithm for identifying such a model is proposed. This algorithm minimizes a quadratic criterion of the output error. Since the output error is a linear function of some parameters, the Affine Linear Parameter Varying system identification is formulated as a separable nonlinear least squares problem. Likewise other identification algorithms using gradient optimization methods several parameter derivatives are dynamical systems that must be simulated. In order to increase time efficiency a canonical parametrization that minimizes the number of systems to be simulated is chosen. The effectiveness of the algorithm is assessed in a case study where an Affine Parameter Varying Model is identified from the experimental data used in the previous study and compared with the time-invariant model.

  20. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

  1. Spatially-varying surface roughness and ground-level air quality in an operational dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, M.J.; Brade, T.K.; MacKenzie, A.R.; Whyatt, J.D.; Carruthers, D.J.; Stocker, J.; Cai, X.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2014-01-01

    Urban form controls the overall aerodynamic roughness of a city, and hence plays a significant role in how air flow interacts with the urban landscape. This paper reports improved model performance resulting from the introduction of variable surface roughness in the operational air-quality model ADMS-Urban (v3.1). We then assess to what extent pollutant concentrations can be reduced solely through local reductions in roughness. The model results suggest that reducing surface roughness in a city centre can increase ground-level pollutant concentrations, both locally in the area of reduced roughness and downwind of that area. The unexpected simulation of increased ground-level pollutant concentrations implies that this type of modelling should be used with caution for urban planning and design studies looking at ventilation of pollution. We expect the results from this study to be relevant for all atmospheric dispersion models with urban-surface parameterisations based on roughness. -- Highlights: • Spatially variable roughness improved performance of an operational model. • Scenario modelling explored effect of reduced roughness on air pollution. • Reducing surface roughness can increase modelled ground-level pollution. • Damped vertical mixing outweighs increased horizontal advection in model study. • Result should hold for any model with a land-surface coupling based on roughness. -- Spatially varying roughness improves model simulations of urban air pollutant dispersion. Reducing roughness does not always decrease ground-level pollution concentrations

  2. Modeling passive power generation in a temporally-varying temperature environment via thermoelectrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bomberger, Cory C.; Attia, Peter M.; Prasad, Ajay K.; Zide, Joshua M.O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a model to predict the power generation of a thermoelectric generator in a temporally-varying temperature environment. The model employs a thermoelectric plate sandwiched between two different heat exchangers to convert a temporal temperature gradient in the environment to a spatial temperature gradient within the device suitable for thermoelectric power generation. The two heat exchangers are designed such that their temperatures respond to a change in the environment's temperature at different rates which sets up a temperature differential across the thermoelectric and results in power generation. In this model, radiative and convective heat transfer between the device and its surroundings, and heat flow between the two heat exchangers across the thermoelectric plate are considered. The model is simulated for power generation in Death Valley, CA during the summer using the diurnal variation of air temperature and radiative exchange with the sun and night sky as heat sources and sinks. The optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed. Additional applications of this device are considered. -- Highlights: • Thermoelectric power generation with time-varying temperature is modeled. • The ability to generate power without a natural spatial gradient is demonstrated. • Time dependent heat-transfer and differential heat flow rates are considered. • Optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed

  3. Effects of time-varying β in SNLS3 on constraining interacting dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shuang; Wang, Yong-Zhen; Geng, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Xin

    2014-01-01

    It has been found that, for the Supernova Legacy Survey three-year (SNLS3) data, there is strong evidence for the redshift evolution of the color-luminosity parameter β. In this paper, adopting the w-cold-dark-matter (wCDM) model and considering its interacting extensions (with three kinds of interaction between dark sectors), we explore the evolution of β and its effects on parameter estimation. In addition to the SNLS3 data, we also use the latest Planck distance priors data, the galaxy clustering data extracted from sloan digital sky survey data release 7 and baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey, as well as the direct measurement of Hubble constant H 0 from the Hubble Space Telescope observation. We find that, for all the interacting dark energy (IDE) models, adding a parameter of β can reduce χ 2 by ∝34, indicating that a constant β is ruled out at 5.8σ confidence level. Furthermore, it is found that varying β can significantly change the fitting results of various cosmological parameters: for all the dark energy models considered in this paper, varying β yields a larger fractional CDM densities Ω c0 and a larger equation of state w; on the other side, varying β yields a smaller reduced Hubble constant h for the wCDM model, but it has no impact on h for the three IDE models. This implies that there is a degeneracy between h and coupling parameter γ. Our work shows that the evolution of β is insensitive to the interaction between dark sectors, and then highlights the importance of considering β's evolution in the cosmology fits. (orig.)

  4. A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

    2006-01-01

    We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

  5. Modeling the Plasma Flow in the Inner Heliosheath with a Spatially Varying Compression Ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolaou, G. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna (Sweden); Livadiotis, G. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas (United States)

    2017-03-20

    We examine a semi-analytical non-magnetic model of the termination shock location previously developed by Exarhos and Moussas. In their study, the plasma flow beyond the shock is considered incompressible and irrotational, thus the flow potential is analytically derived from the Laplace equation. Here we examine the characteristics of the downstream flow in the heliosheath in order to resolve several inconsistencies existing in the Exarhos and Moussas model. In particular, the model is modified in order to be consistent with the Rankine–Hugoniot jump conditions and the geometry of the termination shock. It is shown that a shock compression ratio varying along the latitude can lead to physically correct results. We describe the new model and present several simplified examples for a nearly spherical, strong termination shock. Under those simplifications, the upstream plasma is nearly adiabatic for large (∼100 AU) heliosheath thickness.

  6. A mathematical model for batch and continuous thickening of flocculent suspensions in vessels with varying section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, R.; Damasceno, J.J.R.; Karlesen, K.H.

    2001-10-01

    The phenomenological theory of continuous thickening of flocculated suspensions in an ideal cylindrical thickener is extended to vessels having varying cross-section, including divergent or convergent conical vessels. The purpose of this contribution is to draw attention to the corresponding mathematical model, whose key ingredient is a strongly degenerate parabolic partial differential equation. For ideal (non-flocculated) suspensions, which do not form co compressible sediments, the mathematical model reduces to the kinematic approach by Anestis, who developed a method of construction of exact solution by the method of characteristics. The difficulty lies in the fact that characteristics and iso-concentration lines, unlike the conventional Kynch model for cylindrical vessels, do not coincide, and one has to resort to numerical methods to simulate the thickening process. A numerical algorithm is presented and employed for simulations of continuous thickening. Implications of the mathematical model are also demonstrated by steady-state calculations, which lead to new possibilities in thickener design. (author)

  7. H∞ Control for a Networked Control Model of Systems with Two Additive Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanyong Shao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with H∞ control for a networked control model of systems with two additive time-varying delays. A new Lyapunov functional is constructed to make full use of the information of the delays, and for the derivative of the Lyapunov functional a novel technique is employed to compute a tighter upper bound, which is dependent on the two time-varying delays instead of the upper bounds of them. Then the convex polyhedron method is proposed to check the upper bound of the derivative of the Lyapunov functional. The resulting stability criteria have fewer matrix variables but less conservatism than some existing ones. The stability criteria are applied to designing a state feedback controller, which guarantees that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. Finally examples are given to show the advantages of the stability criteria and the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

  8. Structural nested mean models for assessing time-varying effect moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Ten Have, Thomas; Murphy, Susan A

    2010-03-01

    This article considers the problem of assessing causal effect moderation in longitudinal settings in which treatment (or exposure) is time varying and so are the covariates said to moderate its effect. Intermediate causal effects that describe time-varying causal effects of treatment conditional on past covariate history are introduced and considered as part of Robins' structural nested mean model. Two estimators of the intermediate causal effects, and their standard errors, are presented and discussed: The first is a proposed two-stage regression estimator. The second is Robins' G-estimator. The results of a small simulation study that begins to shed light on the small versus large sample performance of the estimators, and on the bias-variance trade-off between the two estimators are presented. The methodology is illustrated using longitudinal data from a depression study.

  9. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Inflation and late-time acceleration in braneworld cosmological models with varying brane tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.C.; Cheng, K.S.; Harko, T.

    2010-01-01

    Braneworld models with variable brane tension λ introduce a new degree of freedom that allows for evolving gravitational and cosmological constants, the latter being a natural candidate for dark energy. We consider a thermodynamic interpretation of the varying brane tension models, by showing that the field equations with variable λ can be interpreted as describing matter creation in a cosmological framework. The particle creation rate is determined by the variation rate of the brane tension, as well as by the brane-bulk energy-matter transfer rate. We investigate the effect of a variable brane tension on the cosmological evolution of the Universe, in the framework of a particular model in which the brane tension is an exponentially dependent function of the scale factor. The resulting cosmology shows the presence of an initial inflationary expansion, followed by a decelerating phase, and by a smooth transition towards a late accelerated de Sitter type expansion. The varying brane tension is also responsible for the generation of the matter in the Universe (reheating period). The physical constraints on the model parameters, resulting from the observational cosmological data, are also investigated. (orig.)

  11. A boundary element model for diffraction of water waves on varying water depth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poulin, Sanne

    1997-12-31

    In this thesis a boundary element model for calculating diffraction of water waves on varying water depth is presented. The varying water depth is approximated with a perturbed constant depth in the mild-slope wave equation. By doing this, the domain integral which is a result of the varying depth is no longer a function of the unknown wave potential but only a function of position and the constant depth wave potential. The number of unknowns is the resulting system of equations is thus reduced significantly. The integration procedures in the model are tested very thoroughly and it is found that a combination of analytical integration in the singular region and standard numerical integration outside works very well. The gradient of the wave potential is evaluated successfully using a hypersingular integral equation. Deviations from the analytical solution are only found on the boundary or very close to, but these deviations have no significant influence on the accuracy of the solution. The domain integral is evaluated using the dual reciprocity method. The results are compared with a direct integration of the integral, and the accuracy is quite satisfactory. The problem with irregular frequencies is taken care of by the CBIEM (or CHIEF-method) together with a singular value decomposition technique. This method is simple to implement and works very well. The model is verified using Homma`s island as a test case. The test cases are limited to shallow water since the analytical solution is only valid in this region. Several depth ratios are examined, and it is found that the accuracy of the model increases with increasing wave period and decreasing depth ratio. Short waves, e.g. wind generated waves, can allow depth variations up to approximately 2 before the error exceeds 10%, while long waves can allow larger depth ratios. It is concluded that the perturbation idea is highly usable. A study of (partially) absorbing boundary conditions is also conducted. (EG)

  12. Proposed residual stress model for roller bent wide flange sections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoorenberg, R.C.; Snijder, H.H.; Hoenderkamp, J.C.D.

    2011-01-01

    The manufacturing process of structural wide flange steel sections introduces residual stresses in the material. These stresses due to hot-rolling or welding influence the inelastic buckling response of structural steel members and need to be taken into account in the design. Based on experimental

  13. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; hide

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  14. State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

    2016-01-15

    Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  16. Modeling intensive longitudinal data with mixtures of nonparametric trajectories and time-varying effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, interindividual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semiparametric regression modeling, to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Modelling of the diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere under varying conditions in large cultivated regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wueneke, C.D.; Schultz, H.

    1975-01-01

    The most important routines of a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method for calculating the transport and the turbulent dispersion of inert and radio-active pollutants in the atmosphere have been programmed and have been tested successfully on the CDC computer CYBER 73/76 of the Regional Computer Centre for Niedersachsen in Hanover. Compared to the Gaussian plume model such a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method offers several advantages for the computation of the diffusion under varying conditions in large cultivated regions. (orig.) [de

  18. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  19. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate nonlinear, parameter-varying (PV),...

  20. The Three-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Wide Gap Taylor-Couette Flow Modelled by CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shina Adebayo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical investigation is conducted for the flow between two concentric cylinders with a wide gap, relevant to bearing chamber applications. This wide gap configuration has received comparatively less attention than narrow gap journal bearing type geometries. The flow in the gap between an inner rotating cylinder and an outer stationary cylinder has been modelled as an incompressible flow using an implicit finite volume RANS scheme with the realisable k-ε model. The model flow is above the critical Taylor number at which axisymmetric counterrotating Taylor vortices are formed. The tangential velocity profiles at all axial locations are different from typical journal bearing applications, where the velocity profiles are quasilinear. The predicted results led to two significant findings of impact in rotating machinery operations. Firstly, the axial variation of the tangential velocity gradient induces an axially varying shear stress, resulting in local bands of enhanced work input to the working fluid. This is likely to cause unwanted heat transfer on the surface in high torque turbomachinery applications. Secondly, the radial inflow at the axial end-wall boundaries is likely to promote the transport of debris to the junction between the end-collar and the rotating cylinder, causing the build-up of fouling in the seal.

  1. Time-varying BRDFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

    2007-01-01

    The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

  2. A time-varying subjective quality model for mobile streaming videos with stalling events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Pan, Janice; Bovik, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Over-the-top mobile video streaming is invariably influenced by volatile network conditions which cause playback interruptions (stalling events), thereby impairing users' quality of experience (QoE). Developing models that can accurately predict users' QoE could enable the more efficient design of quality-control protocols for video streaming networks that reduce network operational costs while still delivering high-quality video content to the customers. Existing objective models that predict QoE are based on global video features, such as the number of stall events and their lengths, and are trained and validated on a small pool of ad hoc video datasets, most of which are not publicly available. The model we propose in this work goes beyond previous models as it also accounts for the fundamental effect that a viewer's recent level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction has on their overall viewing experience. In other words, the proposed model accounts for and adapts to the recency, or hysteresis effect caused by a stall event in addition to accounting for the lengths, frequency of occurrence, and the positions of stall events - factors that interact in a complex way to affect a user's QoE. On the recently introduced LIVE-Avvasi Mobile Video Database, which consists of 180 distorted videos of varied content that are afflicted solely with over 25 unique realistic stalling events, we trained and validated our model to accurately predict the QoE, attaining standout QoE prediction performance.

  3. Time-varying metamaterials based on graphene-wrapped microwires: Modeling and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salary, Mohammad Mahdi; Jafar-Zanjani, Samad; Mosallaei, Hossein

    2018-03-01

    The successful realization of metamaterials and metasurfaces requires the judicious choice of constituent elements. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of time-varying metamaterials in the terahertz frequency regime by utilizing graphene-wrapped microwires as building blocks and modulation of graphene conductivity through exterior electrical gating. These elements enable enhancement of light-graphene interaction by utilizing optical resonances associated with Mie scattering, yielding a large tunability and modulation depth. We develop a semianalytical framework based on transition-matrix formulation for modeling and analysis of periodic and aperiodic arrays of such time-varying building blocks. The proposed method is validated against full-wave numerical results obtained using the finite-difference time-domain method. It provides an ideal tool for mathematical synthesis and analysis of space-time gradient metamaterials, eliminating the need for computationally expensive numerical models. Moreover, it allows for a wider exploration of exotic space-time scattering phenomena in time-modulated metamaterials. We apply the method to explore the role of modulation parameters in the generation of frequency harmonics and their emerging wavefronts. Several potential applications of such platforms are demonstrated, including frequency conversion, holographic generation of frequency harmonics, and spatiotemporal manipulation of light. The presented results provide key physical insights to design time-modulated functional metadevices using various building blocks and open up new directions in the emerging paradigm of time-modulated metamaterials.

  4. Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

    2017-11-01

    In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

  5. Proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for length-biased data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feipeng; Chen, Xuerong; Zhou, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Length-biased data arise in many important applications including epidemiological cohort studies, cancer prevention trials and studies of labor economics. Such data are also often subject to right censoring due to loss of follow-up or the end of study. In this paper, we consider a proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for right-censored and length-biased data, which is used to study the interact effect nonlinearly of covariates with an exposure variable. A local estimating equation method is proposed for the unknown coefficients and the intercept function in the model. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established by using the martingale theory and kernel smoothing techniques. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators have an excellent finite-sample performance. The Channing House data is analyzed to demonstrate the applications of the proposed method.

  6. A Probabilistic Genome-Wide Gene Reading Frame Sequence Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Mørk, Søren

    We introduce a new type of probabilistic sequence model, that model the sequential composition of reading frames of genes in a genome. Our approach extends gene finders with a model of the sequential composition of genes at the genome-level -- effectively producing a sequential genome annotation...... as output. The model can be used to obtain the most probable genome annotation based on a combination of i: a gene finder score of each gene candidate and ii: the sequence of the reading frames of gene candidates through a genome. The model --- as well as a higher order variant --- is developed and tested...... and are evaluated by the effect on prediction performance. Since bacterial gene finding to a large extent is a solved problem it forms an ideal proving ground for evaluating the explicit modeling of larger scale gene sequence composition of genomes. We conclude that the sequential composition of gene reading frames...

  7. Dealing with time-varying recruitment and length in Hill-type muscle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamouda, Ahmed; Kenney, Laurence; Howard, David

    2016-10-03

    Hill-type muscle models are often used in muscle simulation studies and also in the design and virtual prototyping of functional electrical stimulation systems. These models have to behave in a sufficiently realistic manner when recruitment level and contractile element (CE) length change continuously. For this reason, most previous models have used instantaneous CE length in the muscle׳s force vs. length (F-L) relationship, but thereby neglect the instability problem on the descending limb (i.e. region of negative slope) of the F-L relationship. Ideally CE length at initial recruitment should be used but this requires a multiple-motor-unit muscle model to properly account for different motor-units having different initial lengths when recruited. None of the multiple-motor-unit models reported in the literature have used initial CE length in the muscle׳s F-L relationship, thereby also neglecting the descending limb instability problem. To address the problem of muscle modelling for continuously varying recruitment and length, and hence different values of initial CE length for different motor-units, a new multiple-motor-unit muscle model is presented which considers the muscle to comprise 1000 individual Hill-type virtual motor-units, which determine the total isometric force. Other parts of the model (F-V relationship and passive elements) are not dependent on the initial CE length and, therefore, they are implemented for the muscle as a whole rather than for the individual motor-units. The results demonstrate the potential errors introduced by using a single-motor-unit model and also the instantaneous CE length in the F-L relationship, both of which are common in FES control studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Youbing, E-mail: youbing-yin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Choi, Jiwoong, E-mail: jiwoong-choi@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Hoffman, Eric A., E-mail: eric-hoffman@uiowa.edu [Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Tawhai, Merryn H., E-mail: m.tawhai@auckland.ac.nz [Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand); Lin, Ching-Long, E-mail: ching-long-lin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C{sub 1} continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung.

  9. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Youbing; Choi, Jiwoong; Hoffman, Eric A.; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Lin, Ching-Long

    2012-01-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C1 continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung. PMID:23794749

  10. Spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya with spatially varying coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elphas Okango

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease mapping has become popular in the field of statistics as a method to explain the spatial distribution of disease outcomes and as a tool to help design targeted intervention strategies. Most of these models however have been implemented with assumptions that may be limiting or altogether lead to less meaningful results and hence interpretations. Some of these assumptions include the linearity, stationarity and normality assumptions. Studies have shown that the linearity assumption is not necessarily true for all covariates. Age for example has been found to have a non-linear relationship with HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Other studies have made stationarity assumption in that one stimulus e.g. education, provokes the same response in all the regions under study and this is also quite restrictive. Responses to stimuli may vary from region to region due to aspects like culture, preferences and attitudes. Methods We perform a spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya, while relaxing these assumptions i.e. the linearity assumption by allowing the covariate age to have a non-linear effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence using the random walk model of order 2 and the stationarity assumption by allowing the rest of the covariates to vary spatially using the conditional autoregressive model. The women data used in this study were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS indicator survey where women aged 15–49 years were surveyed. A full Bayesian approach was used and the models were implemented in R-INLA software. Results Age was found to have a non-linear relationship with both HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and the spatially varying coefficient model provided a significantly better fit for HSV-2. Age-at first sex also had a greater effect on HSV-2 prevalence in the Coastal and some parts of North Eastern regions suggesting either early marriages or child prostitution. The effect of education on HIV prevalence among women was more

  11. Time-varying effect moderation using the structural nested mean model: estimation using inverse-weighted regression with residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437

  12. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Philipp; Helic, Denis; Taraghi, Behnam; Strohmaier, Markus

    2014-01-01

    One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  13. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Singer

    Full Text Available One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  14. Numerical modelling of flow structures over idealized transverse aeolian dunes of varying geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Daniel R.; Walker, Ian J.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.

    2004-04-01

    A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model (PHOENICS™ 3.5) previously validated for wind tunnel measurements is used to simulate the streamwise and vertical velocity flow fields over idealized transverse dunes of varying height ( h) and stoss slope basal length ( L). The model accurately reproduced patterns of: flow deceleration at the dune toe; stoss flow acceleration; vertical lift in the crest region; lee-side flow separation, re-attachment and reversal; and flow recovery distance. Results indicate that the flow field over transverse dunes is particularly sensitive to changes in dune height, with an increase in height resulting in flow deceleration at the toe, streamwise acceleration and vertical lift at the crest, and an increase in the extent of, and strength of reversed flows within, the lee-side separation cell. In general, the length of the separation zone varied from 3 to 15 h from the crest and increased over taller, steeper dunes. Similarly, the flow recovery distance ranged from 45 to >75 h and was more sensitive to changes in dune height. For the range of dune shapes investigated in this study, the differing effects of height and stoss slope length raise questions regarding the applicability of dune aspect ratio as a parameter for explaining airflow over transverse dunes. Evidence is also provided to support existing research on: streamline curvature and the maintenance of sand transport in the toe region; vertical lift in the crest region and its effect on grainfall delivery; relations between the turbulent shear layer and downward forcing of flow re-attachment; and extended flow recovery distances beyond the separation cell. Field validation is required to test these findings in natural settings. Future applications of the model will characterize turbulence and shear stress fields, examine the effects of more complex isolated dune forms and investigate flow over multiple dunes.

  15. Development of an Improved Time Varying Loudness Model with the Inclusion of Binaural Loudness Summation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonneau, Jeremy

    As the perceived quality of a product is becoming more important in the manufacturing industry, more emphasis is being placed on accurately predicting the sound quality of everyday objects. This study was undertaken to improve upon current prediction techniques with regard to the psychoacoustic descriptor of loudness and an improved binaural summation technique. The feasibility of this project was first investigated through a loudness matching experiment involving thirty-one subjects and pure tones of constant sound pressure level. A dependence of binaural summation on frequency was observed which had previously not been a subject of investigation in the reviewed literature. A follow-up investigation was carried out with forty-eight volunteers and pure tones of constant sensation level. Contrary to existing theories in literature the resulting loudness matches revealed an amplitude versus frequency relationship which confirmed the perceived increase in loudness when a signal was presented to both ears simultaneously as opposed to one ear alone. The resulting trend strongly indicated that the higher the frequency of the presented signal, the greater the increase in observed binaural summation. The results from each investigation were summarized into a single binaural summation algorithm and inserted into an improved time-varying loudness model. Using experimental techniques, it was demonstrated that the updated binaural summation algorithm was a considerable improvement over the state of the art approach for predicting the perceived binaural loudness. The improved function retained the ease of use from the original model while additionally providing accurate estimates of diotic listening conditions from monaural WAV files. It was clearly demonstrated using a validation jury test that the revised time-varying loudness model was a significant improvement over the previously standardized approach.

  16. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  17. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  18. Malware Propagation and Prevention Model for Time-Varying Community Networks within Software Defined Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As the adoption of Software Defined Networks (SDNs grows, the security of SDN still has several unaddressed limitations. A key network security research area is in the study of malware propagation across the SDN-enabled networks. To analyze the spreading processes of network malware (e.g., viruses in SDN, we propose a dynamic model with a time-varying community network, inspired by research models on the spread of epidemics in complex networks across communities. We assume subnets of the network as communities and links that are dense in subnets but sparse between subnets. Using numerical simulation and theoretical analysis, we find that the efficiency of network malware propagation in this model depends on the mobility rate q of the nodes between subnets. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The network malware will spread in the SDN when the mobility rate q>qc. The malware will survive when q>qc and perish when qmodel is effective, and the results may help to decide the SDN control strategy to defend against network malware and provide a theoretical basis to reduce and prevent network security incidents.

  19. Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2016-02-01

    Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

  20. Description of signature scales in a floating wind turbine model wake subjected to varying turbulence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadum, Hawwa; Rockel, Stanislav; Holling, Michael; Peinke, Joachim; Cal, Raul Bayon

    2017-11-01

    The wake behind a floating model horizontal axis wind turbine during pitch motion is investigated and compared to a fixed wind turbine wake. An experiment is conducted in an acoustic wind tunnel where hot-wire data are acquired at five downstream locations. At each downstream location, a rake of 16 hot-wires was used with placement of the probes increasing radially in the vertical, horizontal, and diagonally at 45 deg. In addition, the effect of turbulence intensity on the floating wake is examined by subjecting the wind turbine to different inflow conditions controlled through three settings in the wind tunnel grid, a passive and two active protocols, thus varying in intensity. The wakes are inspected by statistics of the point measurements, where the various length/time scales are considered. The wake characteristics for a floating wind turbine are compared to a fixed turbine, and uncovering its features; relevant as the demand for exploiting deep waters in wind energy is increasing.

  1. Modeling of Wide-Band-Gap Semiconductor Alloys

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lambrecht, W

    1998-01-01

    .... The band structure and the total energy properties of LiGaO2 were studied in relation to its possible role as a substrate for GaN growth and as a model system for cation ordering on wurtzite based lattices...

  2. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  3. A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Ed; Brown, Peter

    2016-01-01

    As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

  4. Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2015-07-01

    We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

  5. Modeling Sluggishness in Binaural Unmasking of Speech for Maskers With Time-Varying Interaural Phase Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauth, Christopher F; Brand, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In studies investigating binaural processing in human listeners, relatively long and task-dependent time constants of a binaural window ranging from 10 ms to 250 ms have been observed. Such time constants are often thought to reflect "binaural sluggishness." In this study, the effect of binaural sluggishness on binaural unmasking of speech in stationary speech-shaped noise is investigated in 10 listeners with normal hearing. In order to design a masking signal with temporally varying binaural cues, the interaural phase difference of the noise was modulated sinusoidally with frequencies ranging from 0.25 Hz to 64 Hz. The lowest, that is the best, speech reception thresholds (SRTs) were observed for the lowest modulation frequency. SRTs increased with increasing modulation frequency up to 4 Hz. For higher modulation frequencies, SRTs remained constant in the range of 1 dB to 1.5 dB below the SRT determined in the diotic situation. The outcome of the experiment was simulated using a short-term binaural speech intelligibility model, which combines an equalization-cancellation (EC) model with the speech intelligibility index. This model segments the incoming signal into 23.2-ms time frames in order to predict release from masking in modulated noises. In order to predict the results from this study, the model required a further time constant applied to the EC mechanism representing binaural sluggishness. The best agreement with perceptual data was achieved using a temporal window of 200 ms in the EC mechanism.

  6. Cosmological effects of scalar-photon couplings: dark energy and varyingModels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avgoustidis, A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Martins, C.J.A.P.; Monteiro, A.M.R.V.L.; Vielzeuf, P.E. [Centro de Astrofísica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Luzzi, G., E-mail: tavgoust@gmail.com, E-mail: Carlos.Martins@astro.up.pt, E-mail: mmonteiro@fc.up.pt, E-mail: up110370652@alunos.fc.up.pt, E-mail: gluzzi@lal.in2p3.fr [Laboratoire de l' Accélérateur Linéaire, Université de Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Bâtiment 200, BP 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2014-06-01

    We study cosmological models involving scalar fields coupled to radiation and discuss their effect on the redshift evolution of the cosmic microwave background temperature, focusing on links with varying fundamental constants and dynamical dark energy. We quantify how allowing for the coupling of scalar fields to photons, and its important effect on luminosity distances, weakens current and future constraints on cosmological parameters. In particular, for evolving dark energy models, joint constraints on the dark energy equation of state combining BAO radial distance and SN luminosity distance determinations, will be strongly dominated by BAO. Thus, to fully exploit future SN data one must also independently constrain photon number non-conservation arising from the possible coupling of SN photons to the dark energy scalar field. We discuss how observational determinations of the background temperature at different redshifts can, in combination with distance measures data, set tight constraints on interactions between scalar fields and photons, thus breaking this degeneracy. We also discuss prospects for future improvements, particularly in the context of Euclid and the E-ELT and show that Euclid can, even on its own, provide useful dark energy constraints while allowing for photon number non-conservation.

  7. The varying cosmological constant: a new approximation to the Friedmann equations and universe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öztaş, Ahmet M.; Dil, Emre; Smith, Michael L.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the time-dependent nature of the cosmological constant, Λ, of the Einstein Field Equation (EFE). Beginning with the Einstein-Hilbert action as our fundamental principle we develop a modified version of the EFE allowing the value of Λ to vary as a function of time, Λ(t), indirectly, for an expanding universe. We follow the evolving Λ presuming four-dimensional space-time and a flat universe geometry and present derivations of Λ(t) as functions of the Hubble constant, matter density, and volume changes which can be traced back to the radiation epoch. The models are more detailed descriptions of the Λ dependence on cosmological factors than previous, allowing calculations of the important parameters, Ωm and Ωr, to deep lookback times. Since we derive these without the need for extra dimensions or other special conditions our derivations are useful for model evaluation with astronomical data. This should aid resolution of several difficult problems of astronomy such as the best value for the Hubble constant at present and at recombination.

  8. Modeling Brain Circuitry over a Wide Range of Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal eFua

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available If we are ever to unravel the mysteries of brain function at its most fundamental level, we will need a precise understanding of how its component neurons connect to each other. Electron Microscopes (EM can now provide the nanometer resolution that is needed to image synapses, and therefore connections, while Light Microscopes (LM see at the micrometer resolution required to model the 3D structure of the dendritic network. Since both the topology and the connection strength are integral parts of the brain's wiring diagram, being able to combine these two modalities is critically important.In fact, these microscopes now routinely produce high-resolution imagery in such large quantities that the bottleneck becomes automated processing and interpretation, which is needed for such data to be exploited to its full potential. In this paper, we briefly review the Computer Vision techniques we have developed at EPFL to address this need. They include delineating dendritic arbors from LM imagery, segmenting organelles from EM, and combining the two into a consistent representation.

  9. Modeling brain circuitry over a wide range of scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fua, Pascal; Knott, Graham W

    2015-01-01

    If we are ever to unravel the mysteries of brain function at its most fundamental level, we will need a precise understanding of how its component neurons connect to each other. Electron Microscopes (EM) can now provide the nanometer resolution that is needed to image synapses, and therefore connections, while Light Microscopes (LM) see at the micrometer resolution required to model the 3D structure of the dendritic network. Since both the topology and the connection strength are integral parts of the brain's wiring diagram, being able to combine these two modalities is critically important. In fact, these microscopes now routinely produce high-resolution imagery in such large quantities that the bottleneck becomes automated processing and interpretation, which is needed for such data to be exploited to its full potential. In this paper, we briefly review the Computer Vision techniques we have developed at EPFL to address this need. They include delineating dendritic arbors from LM imagery, segmenting organelles from EM, and combining the two into a consistent representation.

  10. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  11. The utility of protein structure as a predictor of site-wise dN/dS varies widely among HIV-1 proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Austin G; Wilke, Claus O

    2015-10-06

    Protein structure acts as a general constraint on the evolution of viral proteins. One widely recognized structural constraint explaining evolutionary variation among sites is the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of residues in the folded protein. In influenza virus, the distance from functional sites has been found to explain an additional portion of the evolutionary variation in the external antigenic proteins. However, to what extent RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein can be used more generally to explain protein adaptation in other viruses and in the different proteins of any given virus remains an open question. To address this question, we have carried out an analysis of the distribution and structural predictors of site-wise dN/dS in HIV-1. Our results indicate that the distribution of dN/dS in HIV follows a smooth gamma distribution, with no special enrichment or depletion of sites with dN/dS at or above one. The variation in dN/dS can be partially explained by RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein, but these structural constraints do not act uniformly among the different HIV-1 proteins. Structural constraints are highly predictive in just one of the three enzymes and one of three structural proteins in HIV-1. For these two proteins, the protease enzyme and the gp120 structural protein, structure explains between 30 and 40% of the variation in dN/dS. Finally, for the gp120 protein of the receptor-binding complex, we also find that glycosylation sites explain just 2% of the variation in dN/dS and do not explain gp120 evolution independently of either RSA or distance from the apical surface. © 2015 The Author(s).

  12. Effectiveness of Albendazole for Hookworm Varies Widely by Community and Correlates with Nutritional Factors: A Cross-Sectional Study of School-Age Children in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, Debbie; Nguyen, Sara; Kumar, Sunny; Quagraine, Josephine E; Otchere, Joseph; Harrison, Lisa M; Wilson, Michael; Cappello, Michael

    2017-02-08

    Mass drug administration (MDA) targeting school-age children is recommended by the World Health Organization for the global control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. Although considered safe and cost-effective to deliver, benzimidazole anthelminthics are variably effective against the three most common STHs, and widespread use has raised concern about the potential for emerging resistance. To identify factors mediating response to albendazole, we conducted a cross-sectional study of hookworm infection in the Kintampo North Municipality of Ghana in 2011. Among 140 school-age children residing in five contiguous communities, the hookworm prevalence was 59% (82/140). The overall cure rate following administration of single-dose albendazole (400 mg) was 35% (27/76), with a community-wide fecal egg reduction rate (ERR) of 61% (95% confidence interval: 51.8-71.1). Significant disparities were observed in albendazole effectiveness by community, with a cure rate as low as 0% ( N = 24) in Jato Akuraa and ERRs ranging from 53% to 95% across the five study sites. Individual host factors associated with response to deworming treatment included time since last meal, pretreatment blood hemoglobin level, and mid-upper arm circumference. These data demonstrate significant community-level variation in the effectiveness of albendazole, even among populations living in close proximity. Identification of host factors that influence response to albendazole, most notably the timing of drug administration and nutritional factors, creates an opportunity to enhance the effectiveness of deworming through targeted interventions. These findings also demonstrate the importance of measuring anthelminthic response as part of the monitoring and evaluation of community-based deworming programs. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  13. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  14. A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geroldinger, Ludwig; Bürger, Reinhard

    2014-06-01

    The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate parameter-varying (PV), aeroservoelastic (ASE)...

  16. Improvement of and Parameter Identification for the Bimodal Time-Varying Modified Kanai-Tajimi Power Spectral Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiguo Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Kanai-Tajimi power spectrum filtering method proposed by Du Xiuli et al., a genetic algorithm and a quadratic optimization identification technique are employed to improve the bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model and the parameter identification method proposed by Vlachos et al. Additionally, a method for modeling time-varying power spectrum parameters for ground motion is proposed. The 8244 Orion and Chi-Chi earthquake accelerograms are selected as examples for time-varying power spectral model parameter identification and ground motion simulations to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model. The results of this study provide important references for designing ground motion inputs for seismic analyses of major engineering structures.

  17. Optimization of a simplified automobile finite element model using time varying injury metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaewsky, James P; Danelson, Kerry A; Weaver, Caitlin M; Stitzel, Joel D

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, frontal crashes resulted in 55% of passenger car injuries with 10,277 fatalities and 866,000 injuries in the United States. To better understand frontal crash injury mechanisms, human body finite element models (FEMs) can be used to reconstruct Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases. A limitation of this method is the paucity of vehicle FEMs; therefore, we developed a functionally equivalent simplified vehicle model. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) data for our selected vehicle was from a frontal collision with Hybrid III (H3) Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) occupant. From NCAP test reports, the vehicle geometry was created and the H3 ATD was positioned. The material and component properties optimized using a variation study process were: steering column shear bolt fracture force and stroke resistance, seatbelt pretensioner force, frontal and knee bolster airbag stiffness, and belt friction through the D-ring. These parameters were varied using three successive Latin Hypercube Designs of Experiments with 130-200 simulations each. The H3 injury response was compared to the reported NCAP frontal test results for the head, chest and pelvis accelerations, and seat belt and femur forces. The phase, magnitude, and comprehensive error factors, from a Sprague and Geers analysis were calculated for each injury metric and then combined to determine the simulations with the best match to the crash test. The Sprague and Geers analyses typically yield error factors ranging from 0 to 1 with lower scores being more optimized. The total body injury response error factor for the most optimized simulation from each round of the variation study decreased from 0.466 to 0.395 to 0.360. This procedure to optimize vehicle FEMs is a valuable tool to conduct future CIREN case reconstructions in a variety of vehicles.

  18. Real time damage detection using recursive principal components and time varying auto-regressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M.; Bhowmik, B.; Hazra, B.; Pakrashi, V.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a novel baseline free approach for continuous online damage detection of multi degree of freedom vibrating structures using Recursive Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with Time Varying Auto-Regressive Modeling (TVAR) is proposed. In this method, the acceleration data is used to obtain recursive proper orthogonal components online using rank-one perturbation method, followed by TVAR modeling of the first transformed response, to detect the change in the dynamic behavior of the vibrating system from its pristine state to contiguous linear/non-linear-states that indicate damage. Most of the works available in the literature deal with algorithms that require windowing of the gathered data owing to their data-driven nature which renders them ineffective for online implementation. Algorithms focussed on mathematically consistent recursive techniques in a rigorous theoretical framework of structural damage detection is missing, which motivates the development of the present framework that is amenable for online implementation which could be utilized along with suite experimental and numerical investigations. The RPCA algorithm iterates the eigenvector and eigenvalue estimates for sample covariance matrices and new data point at each successive time instants, using the rank-one perturbation method. TVAR modeling on the principal component explaining maximum variance is utilized and the damage is identified by tracking the TVAR coefficients. This eliminates the need for offline post processing and facilitates online damage detection especially when applied to streaming data without requiring any baseline data. Numerical simulations performed on a 5-dof nonlinear system under white noise excitation and El Centro (also known as 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake) excitation, for different damage scenarios, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed algorithm. The method is further validated on results obtained from case studies involving

  19. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  20. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  1. System-wide Benchmark Simulation Model for integrated analysis of urban wastewater systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saagi, R.; Flores-Alsina, X.; Gernaey, K. V.

    Interactions between different components (sewer, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and river) of an urban wastewater system (UWS) are widely recognized (Benedetti et al., 2013). This has resulted in an increasing interest in the modelling of the UWS. System-wide models take into account the inte...

  2. Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

  3. Nonlinear Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Torsional Spring-Loaded Antibacklash Gear with Time-Varying Meshing Stiffness and Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Torsional spring-loaded antibacklash gear which can improve the transmission precision is widely used in many precision transmission fields. It is very important to investigate the dynamic characteristics of antibacklash gear. In the paper, applied force analysis is completed in detail. Then, defining the starting point of double-gear meshing as initial position, according to the meshing characteristic of antibacklash gear, single- or double-tooth meshing states of two gear pairs and the transformation relationship at any moment are determined. Based on this, a nonlinear model of antibacklash gear with time-varying friction and meshing stiffness is proposed. The influences of friction and variations of torsional spring stiffness, damping ratio and preload on dynamic transmission error (DTE are analyzed by numerical calculation and simulation, and the results show that antibacklash gear can increase the composite meshing stiffness; when the torsional spring stiffness is large enough, the oscillating components of the DTE (ODTE and the RMS of the DTE (RDTE trend to be a constant value; the variations of ODTE and RDTE are not significant, unless preload exceeds a certain value.

  4. Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Jia-Xing; Li, Jinpeng; Wang, Dan; Araki, Hitoshi; Tian, Dacheng; Yang, Sihai

    2010-11-09

    Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials. According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level. The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome-wide influence, most likely those

  5. Comparison of model microbial allocation parameters in soils of varying texture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerty, S. B.; Slessarev, E.; Schimel, J.

    2017-12-01

    The soil microbial community decomposes the majority of carbon (C) inputs to the soil. However, not all of this C is respired—rather, a substantial portion of the carbon processed by microbes may remain stored in the soil. The balance between C storage and respiration is controlled by microbial turnover rates and C allocation strategies. These microbial community properties may depend on soil texture, which has the potential to influence both the nature and the fate of microbial necromass and extracellular products. To evaluate the role of texture on microbial turnover and C allocation, we sampled four soils from the University of California's Hastings Reserve that varied in texture (one silt loam, two sandy loam, and on clay soil), but support similar grassland plant communities. We added 14C- glucose to the soil and measured the concentration of the label in the carbon dioxide (CO2), microbial biomass, and extractable C pools over 7 weeks. The labeled biomass turned over the slowest in the clay soil; the concentration of labeled biomass was more than 1.5 times the concentration of the other soils after 8 weeks. The clay soil also had the lowest mineralization rate of the label, and mineralization slowed after two weeks. In contrast, in the sandier soils mineralization rates were higher and did not plateau until 5 weeks into the incubation period. We fit the 14C data to a microbial allocation model and estimated microbial parameters; assimilation efficiency, exudation, and biomass specific respiration and turnover for each soil. We compare these parameters across the soil texture gradient to assess the extent to which models may need to account for variability in microbial C allocation across soils of different texture. Our results suggest that microbial C turns over more slowly in high-clay soils than in sandy soils, and that C lost from microbial biomass is retained at higher rates in high-clay soils. Accounting for these differences in microbial allocation

  6. Function of SSA subfamily of Hsp70 within and across species varies widely in complementing Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell growth and prion propagation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Sharma

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The cytosol of most eukaryotic cells contains multiple highly conserved Hsp70 orthologs that differ mainly by their spatio-temporal expression patterns. Hsp70s play essential roles in protein folding, transport or degradation, and are major players of cellular quality control processes. However, while several reports suggest that specialized functions of Hsp70 orthologs were selected through evolution, few studies addressed systematically this issue.We compared the ability of Ssa1p-Ssa4p from Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Ssa5p-Ssa8p from the evolutionary distant yeast Yarrowia lipolytica to perform Hsp70-dependent tasks when expressed as the sole Hsp70 for S. cerevisiae in vivo. We show that Hsp70 isoforms (i supported yeast viability yet with markedly different growth rates, (ii influenced the propagation and stability of the [PSI(+] and [URE3] prions, but iii did not significantly affect the proteasomal degradation rate of CFTR. Additionally, we show that individual Hsp70 orthologs did not induce the formation of different prion strains, but rather influenced the aggregation properties of Sup35 in vivo. Finally, we show that [URE3] curing by the overexpression of Ydj1p is Hsp70-isoform dependent.Despite very high homology and overlapping functions, the different Hsp70 orthologs have evolved to possess distinct activities that are required to cope with different types of substrates or stress situations. Yeast prions provide a very sensitive model to uncover this functional specialization and to explore the intricate network of chaperone/co-chaperone/substrates interactions.

  7. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  8. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Roy

    Full Text Available The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012. I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  9. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire (Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2010-12-15

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q{sub eq} concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q{sub eq} approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q{sub eq} values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of sq root10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q{sub eq}frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are

  10. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire

    2010-12-01

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q eq concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q eq approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q eq values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of √10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q eq frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are sorption coefficients and flow rates. For both

  11. Models of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leblond, H.; Mihalache, D.

    2013-01-01

    In the past years there was a huge interest in experimental and theoretical studies in the area of few-optical-cycle pulses and in the broader fast growing field of the so-called extreme nonlinear optics. This review concentrates on theoretical studies performed in the past decade concerning the description of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation (SVEA). Here we systematically use the powerful reductive expansion method (alias multiscale analysis) in order to derive simple integrable and nonintegrable evolution models describing both nonlinear wave propagation and interaction of ultrashort (femtosecond) pulses. To this aim we perform the multiple scale analysis on the Maxwell–Bloch equations and the corresponding Schrödinger–von Neumann equation for the density matrix of two-level atoms. We analyze in detail both long-wave and short-wave propagation models. The propagation of ultrashort few-optical-cycle solitons in quadratic and cubic nonlinear media are adequately described by generic integrable and nonintegrable nonlinear evolution equations such as the Korteweg–de Vries equation, the modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the sine–Gordon equation, the cubic generalized Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation, and the two-dimensional sine–Gordon equation. Moreover, we consider the propagation of few-cycle optical solitons in both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional physical settings. A generalized modified Korteweg–de Vries equation is introduced in order to describe robust few-optical-cycle dissipative solitons. We investigate in detail the existence and robustness of both linearly polarized and circularly polarized few-cycle solitons, that is, we also take into account the effect of the vectorial nature of the electric field. Some of these results concerning the systematic use of the reductive expansion method beyond the SVEA can be relatively easily extended to few

  12. Extending the Utility of the Parabolic Approximation in Medical Ultrasound Using Wide-Angle Diffraction Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneson, Joshua E

    2017-04-01

    Wide-angle parabolic models are commonly used in geophysics and underwater acoustics but have seen little application in medical ultrasound. Here, a wide-angle model for continuous-wave high-intensity ultrasound beams is derived, which approximates the diffraction process more accurately than the commonly used Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov (KZK) equation without increasing implementation complexity or computing time. A method for preventing the high spatial frequencies often present in source boundary conditions from corrupting the solution is presented. Simulations of shallowly focused axisymmetric beams using both the wide-angle and standard parabolic models are compared to assess the accuracy with which they model diffraction effects. The wide-angle model proposed here offers improved focusing accuracy and less error throughout the computational domain than the standard parabolic model, offering a facile method for extending the utility of existing KZK codes.

  13. Research on Adaptive Neural Network Control System Based on Nonlinear U-Model with Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengxia Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available U-model can approximate a large class of smooth nonlinear time-varying delay system to any accuracy by using time-varying delay parameters polynomial. This paper proposes a new approach, namely, U-model approach, to solving the problems of analysis and synthesis for nonlinear systems. Based on the idea of discrete-time U-model with time-varying delay, the identification algorithm of adaptive neural network is given for the nonlinear model. Then, the controller is designed by using the Newton-Raphson formula and the stability analysis is given for the closed-loop nonlinear systems. Finally, illustrative examples are given to show the validity and applicability of the obtained results.

  14. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  15. Global Exponential Stability of Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Fishing Model with a Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous fishing model with a time-varying delay. Under proper conditions, we employ a novel argument to establish a criterion on the global exponential stability of positive almost periodic solutions of the model with almost periodic coefficients and delays. Moreover, an example and its numerical simulation are given to illustrate the main results.

  16. Modelling of coupled heat and electric field distribution during ohmic heating of solid foods with varying sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Bøknæs, Niels; Nielsen, P.L.

    factors leading to variations and uncertainties in prediction of the right process parameters. The current work is focused on modelling of OH of solid food pieces of varying sizes cooked in one batch. A 3D mathematical model of coupled heat transfer and electric field during OH of shrimps has been...

  17. Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

  18. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  19. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  20. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying modelling of dielectric elastomer actuators with frequency response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, William R; Dodd, Tony J; Anderson, Sean R; Wilson, Emma D; Porrill, John; Assaf, Tareq; Rossiter, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Current models of dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) are mostly constrained to first principal descriptions that are not well suited to the application of control design due to their computational complexity. In this work we describe an integrated framework for the identification of control focused, data driven and time-varying DEA models that allow advanced analysis of nonlinear system dynamics in the frequency-domain. Experimentally generated input–output data (voltage-displacement) was used to identify control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying dynamic models of a set of film-type DEAs. The model description used was the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input structure. Frequency response analysis of the DEA dynamics was performed using generalized frequency response functions, providing insight and a comparison into the time-varying dynamics across a set of DEA actuators. The results demonstrated that models identified within the presented framework provide a compact and accurate description of the system dynamics. The frequency response analysis revealed variation in the time-varying dynamic behaviour of DEAs fabricated to the same specifications. These results suggest that the modelling and analysis framework presented here is a potentially useful tool for future work in guiding DEA actuator design and fabrication for application domains such as soft robotics. (paper)

  2. Wide-field schematic eye models with gradient-index lens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncharov, Alexander V; Dainty, Chris

    2007-08-01

    We propose a wide-field schematic eye model, which provides a more realistic description of the optical system of the eye in relation to its anatomical structure. The wide-field model incorporates a gradient-index (GRIN) lens, which enables it to fulfill properties of two well-known schematic eye models, namely, Navarro's model for off-axis aberrations and Thibos's chromatic on-axis model (the Indiana eye). These two models are based on extensive experimental data, which makes the derived wide-field eye model also consistent with that data. A mathematical method to construct a GRIN lens with its iso-indicial contours following the optical surfaces of given asphericity is presented. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with three variants related to different age groups. The role of the GRIN structure in relation to the lens paradox is analyzed. The wide-field model with a GRIN lens can be used as a starting design for the eye inverse problem, i.e., reconstructing the optical structure of the eye from off-axis wavefront measurements. Anatomically more accurate age-dependent optical models of the eye could ultimately help an optical designer to improve wide-field retinal imaging.

  3. A sub-circuit MOSFET model with a wide temperature range including cryogenic temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia Kan; Sun Weifeng; Shi Longxing, E-mail: jiakan.01@gmail.com [National ASIC System Engineering Research Center, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096 (China)

    2011-06-15

    A sub-circuit SPICE model of a MOSFET for low temperature operation is presented. Two resistors are introduced for the freeze-out effect, and the explicit behavioral models are developed for them. The model can be used in a wide temperature range covering both cryogenic temperature and regular temperatures. (semiconductor devices)

  4. The Impact of Varied Discrimination Parameters on Mixed-Format Item Response Theory Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2013-01-01

    Whittaker, Chang, and Dodd compared the performance of model selection criteria when selecting among mixed-format IRT models and found that the criteria did not perform adequately when selecting the more parameterized models. It was suggested by M. S. Johnson that the problems when selecting the more parameterized models may be because of the low…

  5. Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

    2001-11-09

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

  6. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Liang, Faming

    2013-01-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing

  7. Habitat Modeling of Alien Plant Species at Varying Levels of Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution models of invasive plants are very useful tools for conservation management. There are challenges in modeling expanding populations, especially in a dynamic environment, and when data are limited. In this paper, predictive habitat models were assessed for three invasive plant species, at differing levels of occurrence, using two different habitat modeling techniques: logistic regression and maximum entropy. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and other landscape characteristics is assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy models were assessed independently. Ensemble models were developed to combine the predictions of the two analysis approaches to obtain a more robust prediction estimate. All species had strong models with Area Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of >0.75. The species with the highest occurrence, Ligustrum spp., had the greatest agreement between the models (93%. Lolium arundinaceum had the most disagreement between models at 33% and the lowest AUC values. Overall, the strength of integrative modeling in assessing and understanding habitat modeling was demonstrated.

  8. Does mortality vary between Asian subgroups in New Zealand: an application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Jatrana

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

  9. Influence of Joint Angle on EMG-Torque Model During Constant-Posture, Torque-Varying Contractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pu; Liu, Lukai; Clancy, Edward A

    2015-11-01

    Relating the electromyogram (EMG) to joint torque is useful in various application areas, including prosthesis control, ergonomics and clinical biomechanics. Limited study has related EMG to torque across varied joint angles, particularly when subjects performed force-varying contractions or when optimized modeling methods were utilized. We related the biceps-triceps surface EMG of 22 subjects to elbow torque at six joint angles (spanning 60° to 135°) during constant-posture, torque-varying contractions. Three nonlinear EMG σ -torque models, advanced EMG amplitude (EMG σ ) estimation processors (i.e., whitened, multiple-channel) and the duration of data used to train models were investigated. When EMG-torque models were formed separately for each of the six distinct joint angles, a minimum "gold standard" error of 4.01±1.2% MVC(F90) resulted (i.e., error relative to maximum voluntary contraction at 90° flexion). This model structure, however, did not directly facilitate interpolation across angles. The best model which did so achieved a statistically equivalent error of 4.06±1.2% MVC(F90). Results demonstrated that advanced EMG σ processors lead to improved joint torque estimation as do longer model training durations.

  10. Modelling the Earth's static and time-varying gravity field using a combination of GRACE and GOCE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farahani, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis is modelling the static and time-varying parts of the Earth's gravity field at the global scale based on data acquired by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In addition, a new

  11. Bivariate functional data clustering: grouping streams based on a varying coefficient model of the stream water and air temperature relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Li; X. Deng; Andy Dolloff; E. P. Smith

    2015-01-01

    A novel clustering method for bivariate functional data is proposed to group streams based on their water–air temperature relationship. A distance measure is developed for bivariate curves by using a time-varying coefficient model and a weighting scheme. This distance is also adjusted by spatial correlation of streams via the variogram. Therefore, the proposed...

  12. Consumer acceptance of model soup system with varying levels of herbs and salt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Lee, Youngsoo; Lee, Soo-Yeun

    2014-10-01

    Although herbs have been reported as one of the most common saltiness enhancers, few studies have focused on the effect of herbs on reducing added sodium as well as the impact of herbs on consumers' overall liking of foods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the effect of varying levels of herbs on reducing added sodium and consumers' overall liking of soups and identify the impact of salt levels on consumers' overall liking of soups. Overall liking of freshly prepared and retorted canned soups with varying levels of herbs was evaluated before and after adding salt by consumers ad libitum until the saltiness of the soup was just about right for them. The results of the study demonstrated that when the perceived herb flavor increased, the amount of salt consumers added to fresh soups decreased (P ≤ 0.006); however, consumers' overall liking decreased (P ≤ 0.013) as well for the highest level of herb tested in the study. Although overall liking of all canned soups was not significantly decreased by herbs, the amount of salt consumers added was also not significantly decreased when herbs were used. Overall liking of all soups significantly increased after more salt was added (P ≤ 0.001), which indicates that salt level was a dominant factor in affecting consumers' overall liking of soups with varying levels of herbs. These findings imply the role of herbs in decreasing salt intake, and the adequate amount of herbs to be added in soup systems. It is challenging for the food industry to reduce sodium in foods without fully understanding the impact of sodium reduction on sensory properties of foods. Herbs are recommended to use in reducing sodium; however, little has been reported regarding the effect of herbs on sodium reduction and how herbs influence consumers’ acceptance of foods. This study provides findings that herbs may aid in decreasing the amount of salt consumers need to add for freshly prepared soups. It was also found that high

  13. New Ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehl, Steffen W.; Hill, Mary Catherine; James, Scott Carlton; Leake, Stanley A.; Zyvoloski, George A.; Dickinson, Jesse E.; Eddebbarh, Al A.

    2006-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined 'child' model that is contained within a larger and coarser 'parent' model that is based on the iterative method of Mehl and Hill (2002, 2004). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has either matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells; Figure 2a) or non-matching grids (parent cells border a non-integer number of child cells; Figure 2b). The coupled grids are simulated using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models (Mehl and Hill, 2002). When the grids are non-matching, model accuracy is slightly increased over matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to accurately couple distinct models because the overall error is less than if only the regional model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain

  14. New ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S.C.; Dickinson, J.E.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Leake, S.A.; Zyvoloski, G.A.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.

    2006-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined ground-water flow models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined "child" model that is contained within a larger and coarser "parent" model that is based on the iterative method of Steffen W. Mehl and Mary C. Hill (2002, Advances in Water Res., 25, p. 497-511; 2004, Advances in Water Res., 27, p. 899-912). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells) or nonmatching grids. The coupled grids are simulated by using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child-cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models. When the grids are nonmatching, model accuracy is slightly increased compared to that for matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to couple distinct models because the overall head and flow errors relative to the analytical solution are less than if only the regional coarse-grid model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain.

  15. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

  16. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  17. Using Video Modeling with Substitutable Loops to Teach Varied Play to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupere, Sally; MacDonald, Rebecca P. F.; Ahearn, William H.

    2013-01-01

    Children with autism often engage in repetitive play with little variation in the actions performed or items used. This study examined the use of video modeling with scripted substitutable loops on children's pretend play with trained and untrained characters. Three young children with autism were shown a video model of scripted toy play that…

  18. Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides

  19. Time-Varying Combinations of Bayesian Dynamic Models and Equity Momentum Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Basturk (Nalan); S. Grassi (Stefano); L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractA novel dynamic asset-allocation approach is proposed where portfolios as well as portfolio strategies are updated at every decision period based on their past performance. For modeling, a general class of models is specified that combines a dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive

  20. Sunda-Banda Arc Transition: Marine Wide-Angle Seismic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgin, A.; Planert, L.; Kopp, H.; Mueller, C.; Lueschen, E.; Engels, M.; Flueh, E.; Djajadihardja, Y.; Sindbad Working Group, T

    2008-12-01

    The Sunda-Banda Arc transition is the region of active convergence and collision of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates. The style of subduction changes from an oceanic-island arc subduction to a continental- island arc collision. The character of the incoming plate varies from the rough topography of the Roo Rise, to the smooth seafloor of the Abyssal Plain off Bali, Sumbawa. Forearc structures include well-developed forearc basins and an accretionary prism/outer forearc high of variable size and shape. To quantify the variability of structure of the lower plate and the effects on the upper plate a refraction seismic survey was carried during cruise SO190-2. A total of 245 ocean bottom seismometers were deployed along 1020 nm of wide-angle seismic profiles in four major north-south oriented corridors. To assess the velocity structure we used a tomographic method which jointly inverts for refracted and reflected phases. The sedimentary layers of the models, obtained by the analysis of high-resolution MCS data (see Lueschen et al), were incorporated into the starting model. The obtained models exhibit strong changes of the incoming oceanic crust for the different portions of the margin: The westernmost profile off eastern Java shows a crustal thickness of more than 15 km, most likely related to the presence of an oceanic plateau. Profiles off Lombok reveal an oceanic crust of 8-9 km average thickness in the Argo Abyssal Plain. Crustal and upper mantle velocities are slightly decreased within an area of about 50-60 km seaward of the trench, indicating fracturing and related serpentinization due to bending of the oceanic crust and associated normal faulting. The outer forearc high is characterized by velocities of 2.5-5.5 km/s. For the Lombok Basin, the profiles show a sedimentary infill of up to 3.5 km thick and typical sediment velocities of 1.75-3.0 km/s. A reflector at 16 km depth and velocity values of 7.4-7.8 km/s beneath it suggest the presence of a shallow

  1. Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Drachal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents results from modelling spot oil prices by Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA. First, based on a literature review and availability of data, the following oil price drivers have been selected: stock prices indices, stock prices volatility index, exchange rates, global economic activity, interest rates, supply and demand indicators and inventories level. Next, they have been included as explanatory variables in various DMA models with different initial parameters. Monthly data between January 1986 and December 2015 has been analyzed. Several variations of DMA models have been constructed, because DMA requires the initial setting of certain parameters. Interestingly, DMA has occurred to be robust to setting different values to these parameters. It has also occurred that the quality of prediction is the highest for the model with the drivers solely connected with the stock markets behavior. Drivers connected with macroeconomic fundamental indicators have not been found so important. This observation can serve as an argument favoring the hypothesis of the increasing financialization of the oil market, at least in the short-term period. The predictions from other, slightly different modelling variations based on DMA methodology, have happened to be consistent with each other in general. Many constructed models have outperformed alternative forecasting methods. It has also been found that normalization of the initial data, although not necessary for DMA from the theoretical point of view, significantly improves the quality of prediction.

  2. Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

    This paper revisits the fit of disaster risk models where a representative agent has recursive preferences and the probability of a macroeconomic disaster changes over time. We calibrate the model as in Wachter (2013) and perform two sets of tests to assess the empirical performance of the model ...... and hence to reduce the Sharpe Ratio, a lower elasticity of substitution generates a more reasonable level for the equity risk premium and for the volatility of the government bond returns without compromising the ability of the price-dividend ratio to predict excess returns....

  3. A 3D Finite Element Model with Improved Spatial Resolution to Investigate the Effect of Varying Viscosity on Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, B.; van der Wal, W.; Pappa, F.; Ebbing, J.

    2017-12-01

    B. Blank1, H. Hu1, W. van der Wal1, F Pappa2, J. Ebbing21Delft University of Technology 2Christian-Albrechts-University of KielSince the beginning of the 2000's time-variable gravity data from GRACE has proved to be an effective method for mapping ice mass loss in Antarctica. However, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models are required to correct for GIA induced mass changes. While most GIA models have adopted an Earth model that only varies radially in parameters, it has long been clear that the Earth structure also varies with longitude and latitude. For this study a new global 3D GIA model has been developed within the finite element software package ABAQUS, which can be modified to operate on a spatial resolution down to 50 km locally. The model is being benchmarked against normal model models for surface loading. It will be used to investigate the effects of a 3D varying lithosphere and upper asthenosphere in Antarctica. Viscosity which will be computed from temperature estimates with laboratory based flow laws. A new 3D temperature map of the Antarctic lithosphere has been developed within ESA's GOCE+ project based on seismic data as well as on GOCE and GRACE inferred gravity gradients. Output from the GIA model with this new temperature estimates will be compared to that of 1D viscosity profiles and other recent 3D viscosity models based on seismic data. From these side to side comparisons we want to investigate the influence of the viscosity map on uplift rates and horizontal movement. Finally the results can be compared to GPS measurement to investigate the validity of all models.

  4. A phenomenological model on the kink mode threshold varying with the inclination of sheath boundary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, X.; Intrator, T. P.; Sears, J.; Weber, T.; Liu, M.

    2013-01-01

    In nature and many laboratory plasmas, a magnetic flux tube threaded by current or a flux rope has a footpoint at a boundary. The current driven kink mode is one of the fundamental ideal magnetohydrodynamic instabilities in plasmas. It has an instability threshold that has been found to strongly depend on boundary conditions (BCs). We provide a theoretical model to explain the transition of this threshold dependence between nonline tied and line tied boundary conditions. We evaluate model parameters using experimentally measured plasma data, explicitly verify several kink eigenfunctions, and validate the model predictions for boundary conditions BCs that span the range between NLT and LT BCs. Based on this model, one could estimate the kink threshold given knowledge of the displacement of a flux rope end, or conversely estimate flux rope end motion based on knowledge of it kink stability threshold

  5. Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.

  6. A probability distribution model of tooth pits for evaluating time-varying mesh stiffness of pitting gears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yaguo; Liu, Zongyao; Wang, Delong; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Huan; Lin, Jing

    2018-06-01

    Tooth damage often causes a reduction in gear mesh stiffness. Thus time-varying mesh stiffness (TVMS) can be treated as an indication of gear health conditions. This study is devoted to investigating the mesh stiffness variations of a pair of external spur gears with tooth pitting, and proposes a new model for describing tooth pitting based on probability distribution. In the model, considering the appearance and development process of tooth pitting, we model the pitting on the surface of spur gear teeth as a series of pits with a uniform distribution in the direction of tooth width and a normal distribution in the direction of tooth height, respectively. In addition, four pitting degrees, from no pitting to severe pitting, are modeled. Finally, influences of tooth pitting on TVMS are analyzed in details and the proposed model is validated by comparing with a finite element model. The comparison results show that the proposed model is effective for the TVMS evaluations of pitting gears.

  7. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martini, Johannes W. R.; Habeck, Michael

    2015-01-01

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest

  8. Comparison of the kinetics of different Markov models for ligand binding under varying conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martini, Johannes W. R., E-mail: jmartin2@gwdg.de [Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology, Tübingen (Germany); Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Habeck, Michael, E-mail: mhabeck@gwdg.de [Felix Bernstein Institute for Mathematical Statistics in the Biosciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen (Germany); Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry, Göttingen (Germany)

    2015-03-07

    We recently derived a Markov model for macromolecular ligand binding dynamics from few physical assumptions and showed that its stationary distribution is the grand canonical ensemble [J. W. R. Martini, M. Habeck, and M. Schlather, J. Math. Chem. 52, 665 (2014)]. The transition probabilities of the proposed Markov process define a particular Glauber dynamics and have some similarity to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Here, we illustrate that this model is the stochastic analog of (pseudo) rate equations and the corresponding system of differential equations. Moreover, it can be viewed as a limiting case of general stochastic simulations of chemical kinetics. Thus, the model links stochastic and deterministic approaches as well as kinetics and equilibrium described by the grand canonical ensemble. We demonstrate that the family of transition matrices of our model, parameterized by temperature and ligand activity, generates ligand binding kinetics that respond to changes in these parameters in a qualitatively similar way as experimentally observed kinetics. In contrast, neither the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm nor the Glauber heat bath reflects changes in the external conditions correctly. Both converge rapidly to the stationary distribution, which is advantageous when the major interest is in the equilibrium state, but fail to describe the kinetics of ligand binding realistically. To simulate cellular processes that involve the reversible stochastic binding of multiple factors, our pseudo rate equation model should therefore be preferred to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the Glauber heat bath, if the stationary distribution is not of only interest.

  9. A dynamic capacity degradation model and its applications considering varying load for a large format Li-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Minggao; Feng, Xuning; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Zhe; He, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic capacity degradation model for large format Li-ion battery is proposed. • The change of the model parameters directly link with the degradation mechanisms. • The model can simulate the fading behavior of Li-ion battery under varying loads. • The model can help evaluate the longevity of a battery system under specific load. • The model can help predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack. - Abstract: The capacity degradation of the lithium ion battery should be well predicted during battery system design. Therefore, high-fidelity capacity degradation models that are suitable for the task of capacity prediction are required. This paper proposes a novel capacity degradation model that can simulate the degradation dynamics under varying working conditions for large-format lithium ion batteries. The degradation model is built based on a mechanistic and prognostic model (MPM) whose parameters are closely linked with the degradation mechanisms of lithium ion batteries. Chemical kinetics was set to drive the parameters of the MPM to change as capacity degradation continues. With the dynamic parameters of the MPM, the capacity predicted by the degradation model decreases as the cycle continues. Accelerated aging tests were conducted on three types of commercial lithium ion batteries to calibrate the capacity degradation model. The good fit with the experimental data indicates that the model can capture the degradation mechanisms well for different types of commercial lithium ion batteries. Furthermore, the calibrated model can be used to (1) evaluate the longevity of a battery system under a specific working load and (2) predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack when different cell works at different conditions. Correlated applications are discussed using the calibrated degradation model.

  10. Numerical modeling of sandwich panel response to ballistic loading - energy balance for varying impactor geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2007-01-01

    thickness but significantly smaller than panel length dimensions. Experimental data for the total loss in impactor kinetic energy and momentum and estimated damage energy are described. For a selection of impactor tip shapes, the numerical model is used to evaluate different simplified force histories...... between the impactor and the panel during penetration. The force histories are selected from a primary criterion of conservation of linear momentum in the impactor-panel system, and evaluated according to agreement with the total measured energy balance.......A sandwich panel is described by an axisymmetric lumped mass- spring model. The panel compliance is simplified, considering only core shear deformation uniformly distributed across the core thickness. Transverse penetrating impact is modeled for impactors of diameters comparable to the panel...

  11. Nitric oxide levels in the aqueous humor vary in different ocular hypertension experimental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Wen Lu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationships among intraocular pressure (IOP, nitric oxide (NO levels, and aqueous flow rates in experimental ocular hypertension models. A total of 75 rabbits were used. One of four different materials [i.e., α-chymotrypsin, latex microspheres (Polybead, red blood cell ghosts, or sodium hyaluronate (Healon GV] was injected into the eyes of the 15 animals in each experimental group; the remaining 15 rabbits were reserved for a control group. The IOP changes in the five groups were recorded on postinduction Days 1–3, Day 7, Day 14, Day 30, Day 60, Day 90, and Day 120. On postinduction Day 7, the dynamics and NO levels in the aqueous humor were recorded. Significant IOP elevations were induced by α-chymotrypsin (p < 0.01 and Polybead (p < 0.01 on each postinduction day. In the red blood cell ghosts model, significant elevations (p < 0.01 were found on postinduction Days 1–3; Healon GV significantly elevated IOP (p < 0.01 on postinduction Day 1 and Day 2. On postinduction Day 7, the aqueous humor NO levels increased significantly in the models of α-chymotrypsin, Polybead, and red blood cell ghosts (all p < 0.01, while the aqueous flow rates were significantly reduced in the models of α-chymotrypsin and Polybead (p < 0.005. Persistent ocular hypertension models were induced with α-chymotrypsin and Polybead in the rabbits. The Polybead model exhibited the characteristic of an increased aqueous humor NO level, similar to human eyes with acute angle-closure glaucoma and neovascular glaucoma.

  12. Fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 plant operated in the mode of varying loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Pelykh

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Main features of a fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 reactor plant operated in the mode of varying loading are listed. The integrated model is based on the energy creep theory, uses the finite element method for imultaneous solution of the fuel element heat conduction and mechanical deformation equa-tions. Proposed mathematical model allows us to determine the influence of the WWER-1000 regime parameters and fuel assembly design characteristics on the change of cladding properties under different loading conditions of normal operation, as well as the cladding limiting state at variable loading depending on the length, depth and number of cycles.

  13. Slab detachment in laterally varying subduction zones: 3-D numerical modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duretz, T.; Gerya, T.V.; Spakman, W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074103164

    Understanding the three-dimensional (3-D) dynamics of subduction-collision systems is a longstanding challenge in geodynamics. We investigate the impact of slab detachment in collision systems that are subjected to along-trench variations. High-resolution thermomechanical numerical models,

  14. Modelling the solidification of ductile cast iron parts with varying wall thicknesses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Mathias Karsten; Tiedje, Niels Skat; Thorborg, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    ] with a 2D FE solution of the heat conduction equation is developed in an in-house code and model parameters are calibrated using experimental data from representative castings made of ductile cast iron. The main focus is on the influence of casting thickness and resulting local cooling conditions...

  15. A Gradually Varied Approach to Model Turbidity Currents in Submarine Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolla Pittaluga, M.; Frascati, A.; Falivene, O.

    2018-01-01

    We develop a one-dimensional model to describe the dynamics of turbidity current flowing in submarine channels. We consider the flow as a steady state polydisperse suspension accounting for water detrainment from the clear water-turbid interface, for spatial variations of the channel width and for water and sediment lateral overspill from the channel levees. Moreover, we account for sediment exchange with the bed extending the model to deal with situations where the current meets a nonerodible bed. Results show that when water detrainment is accounted for, the flow thickness becomes approximately constant proceeding downstream. Similarly, in the presence of channel levees, the flow tends to adjust to channel relief through the lateral loss of water and sediment. As more mud is spilled above the levees relative to sand, the flow becomes more sand rich proceeding downstream when lateral overspill is present. Velocity and flow thickness predicted by the model are then validated by showing good agreement with laboratory observations. Finally, the model is applied to the Monterey Canyon bathymetric data matching satisfactorily the December 2002 event field measurements and predicting a runout length consistent with observations.

  16. Modeling complex flow structures and drag around a submerged plant of varied posture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boothroyd, Richard J.; Hardy, Richard J.; Warburton, Jeff; Marjoribanks, Timothy I.

    2017-04-01

    Although vegetation is present in many rivers, the bulk of past work concerned with modeling the influence of vegetation on flow has considered vegetation to be morphologically simple and has generally neglected the complexity of natural plants. Here we report on a combined flume and numerical model experiment which incorporates time-averaged plant posture, collected through terrestrial laser scanning, into a computational fluid dynamics model to predict flow around a submerged riparian plant. For three depth-limited flow conditions (Reynolds number = 65,000-110,000), plant dynamics were recorded through high-definition video imagery, and the numerical model was validated against flow velocities collected with an acoustic Doppler velocimeter. The plant morphology shows an 18% reduction in plant height and a 14% increase in plant length, compressing and reducing the volumetric canopy morphology as the Reynolds number increases. Plant shear layer turbulence is dominated by Kelvin-Helmholtz type vortices generated through shear instability, the frequency of which is estimated to be between 0.20 and 0.30 Hz, increasing with Reynolds number. These results demonstrate the significant effect that the complex morphology of natural plants has on in-stream drag, and allow a physically determined, species-dependent drag coefficient to be calculated. Given the importance of vegetation in river corridor management, the approach developed here demonstrates the necessity to account for plant motion when calculating vegetative resistance.

  17. Reliably Assessing the Effectiveness of a Plan Using Models of Varying Fidelity and Under Time Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, S. de; Noordkamp, H.W.; Poel, N.C.L. van der; Smit, S.K.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the effectiveness of a plan, given multiple potential scenarios, is a common problem for analysts, especially in the military domain. This problem can seriously impact the safety of the people that are involved in planned missions. More precisely, the availability of multiple models, with

  18. Predicting the Best Fit: A Comparison of Response Surface Models for Midazolam and Alfentanil Sedation in Procedures With Varying Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Jing-Yang; Ting, Chien-Kun; Mandell, M Susan; Chang, Kuang-Yi; Teng, Wei-Nung; Huang, Yu-Yin; Tsou, Mei-Yung

    2016-08-01

    Selecting an effective dose of sedative drugs in combined upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy is complicated by varying degrees of pain stimulation. We tested the ability of 5 response surface models to predict depth of sedation after administration of midazolam and alfentanil in this complex model. The procedure was divided into 3 phases: esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), colonoscopy, and the time interval between the 2 (intersession). The depth of sedation in 33 adult patients was monitored by Observer Assessment of Alertness/Scores. A total of 218 combinations of midazolam and alfentanil effect-site concentrations derived from pharmacokinetic models were used to test 5 response surface models in each of the 3 phases of endoscopy. Model fit was evaluated with objective function value, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), and Spearman ranked correlation. A model was arbitrarily defined as accurate if the predicted probability is effect-site concentrations tested ranged from 1 to 76 ng/mL and from 5 to 80 ng/mL for midazolam and alfentanil, respectively. Midazolam and alfentanil had synergistic effects in colonoscopy and EGD, but additivity was observed in the intersession group. Adequate prediction rates were 84% to 85% in the intersession group, 84% to 88% during colonoscopy, and 82% to 87% during EGD. The reduced Greco and Fixed alfentanil concentration required for 50% of the patients to achieve targeted response Hierarchy models performed better with comparable predictive strength. The reduced Greco model had the lowest AICc with strong correlation in all 3 phases of endoscopy. Dynamic, rather than fixed, γ and γalf in the Hierarchy model improved model fit. The reduced Greco model had the lowest objective function value and AICc and thus the best fit. This model was reliable with acceptable predictive ability based on adequate clinical correlation. We suggest that this model has practical clinical value for patients undergoing procedures

  19. FE Modelling of the Seismic Behavior of Wide Beam-Column Joints Strengthened with CFRP Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Santarsiero

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A large share of reinforced concrete (RC framed buildings is provided with wide beams being a type of beam allowing greater freedom in the architectural arrangement of interiors, beyond further advantage due to fewer formworks needed during the construction. Nevertheless, little attention has been devoted to the seismic vulnerability of this kind of framed RC buildings as well as to the study of strengthening systems purposely developed for wide beams and wide beam-column connections. Under these premises, this paper proposes simple strengthening solutions made by Fibre Reinforced Polymers (FRP systems able to effectively improve seismic capacity through feasible arrangement suitable in case a wide beam is present. On the basis of wide beam-column joints previously tested without strengthening system, detailed nonlinear finite element models were calibrated. Then, an FRP strengthening intervention based on a brand new arrangement was modeled in order to perform additional simulations under seismic actions. This way, the effectiveness of the strengthening intervention was assessed finding out that significant strength and ductility increments were achieved with a relatively simple and cheap strengthening arrangement. Additional research would be desirable in the form of experimental tests on the simulated wide beam-column joints.

  20. Locally Rotationally Symmetric Bianchi Type-I Model with Time Varying Λ Term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiwari, R. K.; Jha, Navin Kumar

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I cosmological model for stiff matter and a vacuum solution with a cosmological term proportional to R −m (R is the scale factor and m is a positive constant). The cosmological term decreases with time. We obtain that for both the cases the present universe is accelerating with a large fraction of cosmological density in the form of a cosmological term

  1. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  2. Application of a Statistical Linear Time-Varying System Model of High Grazing Angle Sea Clutter for Computing Interference Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-08

    STATISTICAL LINEAR TIME-VARYING SYSTEM MODEL OF HIGH GRAZING ANGLE SEA CLUTTER FOR COMPUTING INTERFERENCE POWER 1. INTRODUCTION Statistical linear time...beam. We can approximate one of the sinc factors using the Dirichlet kernel to facilitate computation of the integral in (6) as follows: ∣∣∣∣sinc(WB...plotted in Figure 4. The resultant autocorrelation can then be found by substituting (18) into (28). The Python code used to generate Figures 1-4 is found

  3. Modeling Quantum Dot Nanoparticle Fate and Transport in Saturated Porous Media under Varying Flow Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M. D.; Wang, Y.; Englehart, J.; Pennell, K. D.; Abriola, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    As manufactured nanomaterials become more prevalent in commercial and industrial applications, the development of mathematical models capable of predicting nanomaterial transport and retention in subsurface systems is crucial to assessing their fate and distribution in the environment. A systematic modeling approach based on a modification of clean-bed filtration theory was undertaken to elucidate mechanisms governing the transport and deposition behavior of quantum dots in saturated quartz sand as a function of grain size and flow velocity. The traditional deposition governing equation, which assumes irreversible attachment by a first-order rate (katt), was modified to include a maximum or limiting retention capacity (Smax) and first-order detachment of particles from the solid phase (kdet). Quantum dot mobility experiments were performed in columns packed with three size fractions of Ottawa sand (d50 = 125, 165, and 335 μm) at two different pore-water velocities (0.8 m/d and 7.6 m/d). The CdSe quantum dots in a CdZnS shell and polyacrylic acid coating were negatively charged (zeta potential measured ca. -35 mV) with a hydrodynamic diameter of approximately 30 nm. Fitted values of katt, Smax, and kdet were obtained for each transport and deposition experiment through the implementation of a nonlinear least-squares routine developed to fit the model to experimental breakthrough and retention data via multivariate optimization. Fitted attachment rates and retention capacities increased exponentially with decreasing grain size at both flow rates, while no discernable trend was apparent for the fitted detachment rates. Maximum retention capacity values were plotted against a normalized mass flux expression, which accounts for flow conditions and grain size. A power function fit to the data yielded a dependence that was consistent with a previous study undertaken with fullerene nanoparticles.

  4. Interictal spike frequency varies with ovarian cycle stage in a rat model of epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amour, James; Magagna-Poveda, Alejandra; Moretto, Jillian; Friedman, Daniel; LaFrancois, John J; Pearce, Patrice; Fenton, Andre A; MacLusky, Neil J; Scharfman, Helen E

    2015-07-01

    In catamenial epilepsy, seizures exhibit a cyclic pattern that parallels the menstrual cycle. Many studies suggest that catamenial seizures are caused by fluctuations in gonadal hormones during the menstrual cycle, but this has been difficult to study in rodent models of epilepsy because the ovarian cycle in rodents, called the estrous cycle, is disrupted by severe seizures. Thus, when epilepsy is severe, estrous cycles become irregular or stop. Therefore, we modified kainic acid (KA)- and pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus (SE) models of epilepsy so that seizures were rare for the first months after SE, and conducted video-EEG during this time. The results showed that interictal spikes (IIS) occurred intermittently. All rats with regular 4-day estrous cycles had IIS that waxed and waned with the estrous cycle. The association between the estrous cycle and IIS was strong: if the estrous cycles became irregular transiently, IIS frequency also became irregular, and when the estrous cycle resumed its 4-day pattern, IIS frequency did also. Furthermore, when rats were ovariectomized, or males were recorded, IIS frequency did not show a 4-day pattern. Systemic administration of an estrogen receptor antagonist stopped the estrous cycle transiently, accompanied by transient irregularity of the IIS pattern. Eventually all animals developed severe, frequent seizures and at that time both the estrous cycle and the IIS became irregular. We conclude that the estrous cycle entrains IIS in the modified KA and pilocarpine SE models of epilepsy. The data suggest that the ovarian cycle influences more aspects of epilepsy than seizure susceptibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling antecedents of blood donation motivation among non-donors of varying age and education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, K P H; Abraham, C; Ruiter, R A C; Veldhuizen, I J T; Dehing, C J G; Bos, A E R; Schaalma, H P

    2009-02-01

    Understanding blood donation motivation among non-donors is prerequisite to effective recruitment. Two studies explored the psychological antecedents of blood donation motivation and the generalisability of a model of donation motivation across groups differing in age and educational level. An older well-educated population and a younger less well-educated population were sampled. The studies assessed the role of altruism, fear of blood/needles and donation-specific cognitions including attitudes and normative beliefs derived from an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Across both samples, results showed that affective attitude, subjective norm, descriptive norm, and moral norm were the most important correlates of blood donation intentions. Self-efficacy was more important among the younger less well-educated group. Altruism was related to donation motivation but only indirectly through moral norm. Similarly, fear of blood/needles only had an indirect effect on motivation through affective attitude and self-efficacy. Additional analyses with the combined data set found no age or education moderation effects, suggesting that this core model of donation-specific cognitions can be used to inform future practical interventions recruiting new blood donors in the general population.

  6. A method for simulating sediment incipient motion varying with time and space in an ocean model (FVCOM): development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zichen; Wang, Yongzhi; Bian, Shuhua; Hu, Zejian; Liu, Jianqiang; Liu, Lejun

    2017-11-01

    We modified the sediment incipient motion in a numerical model and evaluated the impact of this modification using a study case of the coastal area around Weihai, China. The modified and unmodified versions of the model were validated by comparing simulated and observed data of currents, waves, and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) measured from July 25th to July 26th, 2006. A fitted Shields diagram was introduced into the sediment model so that the critical erosional shear stress could vary with time. Thus, the simulated SSC patterns were improved to more closely reflect the observed values, so that the relative error of the variation range decreased by up to 34.5% and the relative error of simulated temporally averaged SSC decreased by up to 36%. In the modified model, the critical shear stress values of the simulated silt with a diameter of 0.035 mm and mud with a diameter of 0.004 mm varied from 0.05 to 0.13 N/m2, and from 0.05 to 0.14 N/m 2, respectively, instead of remaining constant in the unmodified model. Besides, a method of applying spatially varying fractions of the mixed grain size sediment improved the simulated SSC distribution to fit better to the remote sensing map and reproduced the zonal area with high SSC between Heini Bay and the erosion groove in the modified model. The Relative Mean Absolute Error was reduced by between 6% and 79%, depending on the regional attributes when we used the modified method to simulate incipient sediment motion. But the modification achieved the higher accuracy in this study at a cost of computation speed decreasing by 1.52%.

  7. Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

    1995-01-01

    Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

  8. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  9. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample siz...

  10. GEM System: automatic prototyping of cell-wide metabolic pathway models from genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakayama Yoichi

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Successful realization of a "systems biology" approach to analyzing cells is a grand challenge for our understanding of life. However, current modeling approaches to cell simulation are labor-intensive, manual affairs, and therefore constitute a major bottleneck in the evolution of computational cell biology. Results We developed the Genome-based Modeling (GEM System for the purpose of automatically prototyping simulation models of cell-wide metabolic pathways from genome sequences and other public biological information. Models generated by the GEM System include an entire Escherichia coli metabolism model comprising 968 reactions of 1195 metabolites, achieving 100% coverage when compared with the KEGG database, 92.38% with the EcoCyc database, and 95.06% with iJR904 genome-scale model. Conclusion The GEM System prototypes qualitative models to reduce the labor-intensive tasks required for systems biology research. Models of over 90 bacterial genomes are available at our web site.

  11. Activity-based funding model provides foundation for province-wide best practices in renal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Adeera; Lo, Clifford; Noel, Kevin; Djurdjev, Ogjnenka; Amano, Erlyn C

    2013-01-01

    British Columbia has a unique funding model for renal care in Canada. Patient care is delivered through six health authorities, while funding is administered by the Provincial Renal Agency using an activity-based funding model. The model allocates funding based on a schedule of costs for every element of renal care, excluding physician fees. Accountability, transparency of allocation and tracking of outcomes are key features that ensure successful implementation. The model supports province-wide best practices and equitable care and fosters innovation. Since its introduction, the outpatient renal services budget has grown less than the population, while maintaining or improving clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Longwoods Publishing.

  12. A mathematical model for the movement of food bolus of varying viscosities through the esophagus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Dharmendra

    2011-09-01

    This mathematical model is designed to study the influence of viscosity on swallowing of food bolus through the esophagus. Food bolus is considered as viscous fluid with variable viscosity. Geometry of esophagus is assumed as finite length channel and flow is induced by peristaltic wave along the length of channel walls. The expressions for axial velocity, transverse velocity, pressure gradient, volume flow rate and stream function are obtained under the assumptions of long wavelength and low Reynolds number. The impacts of viscosity parameter on pressure distribution, local wall shear stress, mechanical efficiency and trapping are numerically discussed with the help of computational results. On the basis of presented study, it is revealed that swallowing of low viscous fluids through esophagus requires less effort in comparison to fluids of higher viscosity. This result is similar to the experimental result obtained by Raut et al. [1], Dodds [2] and Ren et al. [3]. It is further concluded that the pumping efficiency increases while size of trapped bolus reduces when viscosity of fluid is high.

  13. Modeling the time-varying and level-dependent effects of the medial olivocochlear reflex in auditory nerve responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalt, Christopher J; Heinz, Michael G; Strickland, Elizabeth A

    2014-04-01

    The medial olivocochlear reflex (MOCR) has been hypothesized to provide benefit for listening in noisy environments. This advantage can be attributed to a feedback mechanism that suppresses auditory nerve (AN) firing in continuous background noise, resulting in increased sensitivity to a tone or speech. MOC neurons synapse on outer hair cells (OHCs), and their activity effectively reduces cochlear gain. The computational model developed in this study implements the time-varying, characteristic frequency (CF) and level-dependent effects of the MOCR within the framework of a well-established model for normal and hearing-impaired AN responses. A second-order linear system was used to model the time-course of the MOCR using physiological data in humans. The stimulus-level-dependent parameters of the efferent pathway were estimated by fitting AN sensitivity derived from responses in decerebrate cats using a tone-in-noise paradigm. The resulting model uses a binaural, time-varying, CF-dependent, level-dependent OHC gain reduction for both ipsilateral and contralateral stimuli that improves detection of a tone in noise, similarly to recorded AN responses. The MOCR may be important for speech recognition in continuous background noise as well as for protection from acoustic trauma. Further study of this model and its efferent feedback loop may improve our understanding of the effects of sensorineural hearing loss in noisy situations, a condition in which hearing aids currently struggle to restore normal speech perception.

  14. A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Wiley

    Full Text Available We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.

  15. Development of Industry-Wide IS Integration Model in the Agri-Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    his paper presents a model explaining industrywide information systems (IS) integration in the agri-industry.Using a theoretical frame of value confi guration analysis and IS integration extent we study 15 organizations. We find that product sensitivity, continuous production, value chain captains...... sensitivity and continuous production process led to higher levels of integration......., and value creation logic explain the industry-wide IS integration. Incompatible value creation logic among stakeholders and the lack of presence of “value chain captains” – powerful actors dominating the entire industry - has and negative impact on industry-wide integration. On the other hand, product...

  16. Fluid approximation analysis of a call center model with time-varying arrivals and after-call work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Kawai

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features to be included in queueing-theoretic models of the call center operation are multiple servers, impatient customers, time-varying arrival process, and operator’s after-call work (ACW. We propose a fluid approximation technique for the queueing model with these features by extending the analysis of a similar model without ACW recently developed by Liu and Whitt (2012. Our model assumes that the service for each quantum of fluid consists of a sequence of two stages, the first stage for the conversation with a customer and the second stage for the ACW. When the duration of each stage has exponential, hyperexponential or hypo-exponential distribution, we derive the time-dependent behavior of the content of fluid in each stage of service as well as that in the waiting room. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the system performance for the cases in which the input rate and/or the number of servers vary in sinusoidal fashion as well as in adaptive ways and in stationary cases.

  17. ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

    2010-03-01

    Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and

  18. Lithium-ion battery dynamic model for wide range of operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Ana-Irina; Stroe, Daniel-Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef

    2017-01-01

    In order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery and to determine their suitability for various applications, battery models are needed. An equivalent electrical circuit model is the most common way of representing the behavior of a Li-ion battery. There are different...... characterization tests performed for a wide range of operating conditions (temperature, load current and state-of-charge) on a commercial available 13Ah high-power lithium titanate oxide battery cell. The obtained results were used to parametrize the proposed dynamic model of the battery cell. To assess...

  19. Memory effects in microscopic traffic models and wide scattering in flow-density data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treiber, Martin; Helbing, Dirk

    2003-10-01

    By means of microscopic simulations we show that noninstantaneous adaptation of the driving behavior to the traffic situation together with the conventional method to measure flow-density data provides a possible explanation for the observed inverse-λ shape and the wide scattering of flow-density data in “synchronized” congested traffic. We model a memory effect in the response of drivers to the traffic situation for a wide class of car-following models by introducing an additional dynamical variable (the “subjective level of service”) describing the adaptation of drivers to the surrounding traffic situation during the past few minutes and couple this internal state to parameters of the underlying model that are related to the driving style. For illustration, we use the intelligent-driver model (IDM) as the underlying model, characterize the level of service solely by the velocity, and couple the internal variable to the IDM parameter “time gap” to model an increase of the time gap in congested traffic (“frustration effect”), which is supported by single-vehicle data. We simulate open systems with a bottleneck and obtain flow-density data by implementing “virtual detectors.” The shape, relative size, and apparent “stochasticity” of the region of the scattered data points agree nearly quantitatively with empirical data. Wide scattering is even observed for identical vehicles, although the proposed model is a time-continuous, deterministic, single-lane car-following model with a unique fundamental diagram.

  20. Time-Varying Hydraulic Gradient Model of Paste-Like Tailings in Long-Distance Pipeline Transportation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Paste-like tailings slurry (PTLS is always simplified as a Bingham plastic fluid, leading to excessive computational errors in the calculation of the hydraulic gradient. In the case of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation, to explore a high-precision and reliable hydraulic gradient formula, the rheological behavior of paste-like tailings slurry was analyzed, a time-varying hydraulic gradient model was constructed, and a series of laboratory shear tests were conducted. The results indicate that the PTLS shows noticeable shear-thinning characteristics in constant shear tests; the calculated hydraulic gradient declined by about 56%, from 4.44 MPa·km−1 to 1.95 MPa·km−1 within 253 s, and remained constant for the next four hours during the pipeline transportation. Comparing with the balance hydraulic gradient obtained in a semi-industrial loop test, the computational errors of those calculated by using the time-varying hydraulic gradient model, Jinchuan formula, and Shanxi formula are 15%, 78%, and 130%, respectively. Therefore, our model is a feasible and high-precision solution for the calculation of the hydraulic gradient of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation.

  1. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Wesley K.; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    -wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via...... analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn’s disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While...... minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local...

  2. Experiments and numerical modeling of fast flowing liquid metal thin films under spatially varying magnetic field conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narula, Manmeet Singh

    Innovative concepts using fast flowing thin films of liquid metals (like lithium) have been proposed for the protection of the divertor surface in magnetic fusion devices. However, concerns exist about the possibility of establishing the required flow of liquid metal thin films because of the presence of strong magnetic fields which can cause flow disrupting MHD effects. A plan is underway to design liquid lithium based divertor protection concepts for NSTX, a small spherical torus experiment at Princeton. Of these, a promising concept is the use of modularized fast flowing liquid lithium film zones, as the divertor (called the NSTX liquid surface module concept or NSTX LSM). The dynamic response of the liquid metal film flow in a spatially varying magnetic field configuration is still unknown and it is suspected that some unpredicted effects might be lurking. The primary goal of the research work being reported in this dissertation is to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the liquid metal film flow dynamics under spatially varying magnetic field conditions, typical of the divertor region of a magnetic fusion device. The liquid metal film flow dynamics have been studied through a synergic experimental and numerical modeling effort. The Magneto Thermofluid Omnibus Research (MTOR) facility at UCLA has been used to design several experiments to study the MHD interaction of liquid gallium films under a scaled NSTX outboard divertor magnetic field environment. A 3D multi-material, free surface MHD modeling capability is under development in collaboration with HyPerComp Inc., an SBIR vendor. This numerical code called HIMAG provides a unique capability to model the equations of incompressible MHD with a free surface. Some parts of this modeling capability have been developed in this research work, in the form of subroutines for HIMAG. Extensive code debugging and benchmarking exercise has also been carried out. Finally, HIMAG has been used to study the

  3. Modeling Water Flux at the Base of the Rooting Zone for Soils with Varying Glacial Parent Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, S.; Ellett, K. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Olyphant, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Soils of varying glacial parent materials in the Great Lakes Region (USA) are characterized by thin unsaturated zones and widespread use of agricultural pesticides and nutrients that affect shallow groundwater. To better our understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants, improved models of water fluxes through the vadose zones of various hydrogeologic settings are warranted. Furthermore, calibrated unsaturated zone models can be coupled with watershed models, providing a means for predicting the impact of varying climate scenarios on agriculture in the region. To address these issues, a network of monitoring sites was developed in Indiana that provides continuous measurements of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and soil matric potential to parameterize and calibrate models. Flux at the base of the root zone is simulated using two models of varying complexity: 1) the HYDRUS model, which numerically solves the Richards equation, and 2) the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, which assumes vertical flow under a unit gradient with infiltration and evapotranspiration treated as separate, sequential processes. Soil hydraulic parameters are determined based on laboratory data, a pedo-transfer function (ROSETTA), field measurements (Guelph permeameter), and parameter optimization. Groundwater elevation data are available at three of six sites to establish the base of the unsaturated zone model domain. Initial modeling focused on the groundwater recharge season (Nov-Feb) when PET is limited and much of the annual vertical flux occurs. HYDRUS results indicate that base of root zone fluxes at a site underlain by glacial ice-contact parent materials are 48% of recharge season precipitation (VWC RMSE=8.2%), while SWB results indicate that fluxes are 43% (VWC RMSE=3.7%). Due in part to variations in surface boundary conditions, more variable fluxes were obtained for a site underlain by alluvium with the SWB model (68

  4. Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

  5. Genome-Wide Expression Profiling of Five Mouse Models Identifies Similarities and Differences with Human Psoriasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R.; Johnston, Andrew; Carbajal, Steve; Han, Gangwen; Wohn, Christian; Lu, Jun; Xing, Xianying; Nair, Rajan P.; Voorhees, John J.; Elder, James T.; Wang, Xiao-Jing; Sano, Shigetoshi; Prens, Errol P.; DiGiovanni, John; Pittelkow, Mark R.; Ward, Nicole L.; Gudjonsson, Johann E.

    2011-01-01

    Development of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features of the human disease, and standardized validation criteria for psoriasis mouse models have not been widely applied. In this study, whole-genome transcriptional profiling is used to compare gene expression patterns manifested by human psoriatic skin lesions with those that occur in five psoriasis mouse models (K5-Tie2, imiquimod, K14-AREG, K5-Stat3C and K5-TGFbeta1). While the cutaneous gene expression profiles associated with each mouse phenotype exhibited statistically significant similarity to the expression profile of psoriasis in humans, each model displayed distinctive sets of similarities and differences in comparison to human psoriasis. For all five models, correspondence to the human disease was strong with respect to genes involved in epidermal development and keratinization. Immune and inflammation-associated gene expression, in contrast, was more variable between models as compared to the human disease. These findings support the value of all five models as research tools, each with identifiable areas of convergence to and divergence from the human disease. Additionally, the approach used in this paper provides an objective and quantitative method for evaluation of proposed mouse models of psoriasis, which can be strategically applied in future studies to score strengths of mouse phenotypes relative to specific aspects of human psoriasis. PMID:21483750

  6. Modelling plastic deformation of metals over a wide range of strain rates using irreversible thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Mingxin; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, Pedro E J; Zwaag, Sybrand van der; Bouaziz, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Based on the theory of irreversible thermodynamics, the present work proposes a dislocation-based model to describe the plastic deformation of FCC metals over wide ranges of strain rates. The stress-strain behaviour and the evolution of the average dislocation density are derived. It is found that there is a transitional strain rate (∼ 10 4 s -1 ) over which the phonon drag effects appear, resulting in a significant increase in the flow stress and the average dislocation density. The model is applied to pure Cu deformed at room temperature and at strain rates ranging from 10 -5 to 10 6 s -1 showing good agreement with experimental results.

  7. Effects of ionic strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solon, Kimberly; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi

    2015-01-01

    Plant-wide models of wastewater treatment (such as the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 or BSM2) are gaining popularity for use in holistic virtual studies of treatment plant control and operations. The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections....... The paper describes: 1) how the anaerobic digester performance is affected by physico-chemical corrections; 2) the effect on pH and the anaerobic digestion products (CO2, CH4 and H2); and, 3) how these variations are propagated from the sludge treatment to the water line. Results at high ionic strength...

  8. Shallow water processes govern system-wide phytoplankton bloom dynamics: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, L.V.; Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Thompson, J.K.

    2009-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional numerical model of estuarine phytoplankton growth and consumption, vertical turbulent mixing, and idealized cross-estuary transport was developed and applied to South San Francisco Bay. This estuary has two bathymetrically distinct habitat types (deep channel, shallow shoal) and associated differences in local net rates of phytoplankton growth and consumption, as well as differences in the water column's tendency to stratify. Because many physical and biological time scales relevant to algal population dynamics decrease with decreasing depth, process rates can be especially fast in the shallow water. We used the model to explore the potential significance of hydrodynamic connectivity between a channel and shoal and whether lateral transport can allow physical or biological processes (e.g. stratification, benthic grazing, light attenuation) in one sub-region to control phytoplankton biomass and bloom development in the adjacent sub-region. Model results for South San Francisco Bay suggest that lateral transport from a productive shoal can result in phytoplankton biomass accumulation in an adjacent deep, unproductive channel. The model further suggests that turbidity and benthic grazing in the shoal can control the occurrence of a bloom system-wide; whereas, turbidity, benthic grazing, and vertical density stratification in the channel are likely to only control local bloom occurrence or modify system-wide bloom magnitude. Measurements from a related field program are generally consistent with model-derived conclusions. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  9. Gaussian covariance graph models accounting for correlated marker effects in genome-wide prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, C A; Khare, K; Rahman, S; Elzo, M A

    2017-10-01

    Several statistical models used in genome-wide prediction assume uncorrelated marker allele substitution effects, but it is known that these effects may be correlated. In statistics, graphical models have been identified as a useful tool for covariance estimation in high-dimensional problems and it is an area that has recently experienced a great expansion. In Gaussian covariance graph models (GCovGM), the joint distribution of a set of random variables is assumed to be Gaussian and the pattern of zeros of the covariance matrix is encoded in terms of an undirected graph G. In this study, methods adapting the theory of GCovGM to genome-wide prediction were developed (Bayes GCov, Bayes GCov-KR and Bayes GCov-H). In simulated data sets, improvements in correlation between phenotypes and predicted breeding values and accuracies of predicted breeding values were found. Our models account for correlation of marker effects and permit to accommodate general structures as opposed to models proposed in previous studies, which consider spatial correlation only. In addition, they allow incorporation of biological information in the prediction process through its use when constructing graph G, and their extension to the multi-allelic loci case is straightforward. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. Clear-sky classification procedures and models using a world-wide data-base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younes, S.; Muneer, T.

    2007-01-01

    Clear-sky data need to be extracted from all-sky measured solar-irradiance dataset, often by using algorithms that rely on other measured meteorological parameters. Current procedures for clear-sky data extraction have been examined and compared with each other to determine their reliability and location dependency. New clear-sky determination algorithms are proposed that are based on a combination of clearness index, diffuse ratio, cloud cover and Linke's turbidity limits. Various researchers have proposed clear-sky irradiance models that rely on synoptic parameters; four of these models, MRM, PRM, YRM and REST2 have been compared for six world-wide-locations. Based on a previously-developed comprehensive accuracy scoring method, the models MRM, REST2 and YRM were found to be of satisfactory performance in decreasing order. The so-called Page radiation model (PRM) was found to underestimate solar radiation, even though local turbidity data were provided for its operation

  11. Effects of ion strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Solon, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    the effects that an improved physico-chemical description will have on the predicted effluent quality (EQI) and operational cost (OCI) indices. The acid-base equilibria implemented in the Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) are modified to account for non-ideal aqueous-phase chemistry. The model corrects......The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections) andion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs). Using the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) as a case study, this paper presents...... for ionic strength via the Davies approach to consider chemical activities instead of molar concentrations. Also, a speciation sub-routine based on a multi-dimensional Newton-Raphson iteration method accounts for the formation of some of the ion pairs playing an important role in wastewater treatment...

  12. A simulation of cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a mathematical power balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    The current study simulated cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a power balance model. By applying the hypothetical inductive deductive method, we compared the simulated position along the track with actual skiing on snow, and calculated the theoretical effect of friction and air drag on skiing performance. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature, whereas the model included relationships between heart rate, metabolic rate, and work rate based on the treadmill roller-ski testing of an elite cross-country skier. We verified this procedure by testing four models of metabolic rate against experimental data on the treadmill. The experimental data corresponded well with the simulations, with the best fit when work rate was increased on uphill and decreased on downhill terrain. The simulations predicted that skiing time increases by 3%-4% when either friction or air drag increases by 10%. In conclusion, the power balance model was found to be a useful tool for predicting how various factors influence racing performance in cross-country skiing.

  13. Genome-wide association study of handedness excludes simple genetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, J AL; Davison, A; McManus, I C

    2014-01-01

    Handedness is a human behavioural phenotype that appears to be congenital, and is often assumed to be inherited, but for which the developmental origin and underlying causation(s) have been elusive. Models of the genetic basis of variation in handedness have been proposed that fit different features of the observed resemblance between relatives, but none has been decisively tested or a corresponding causative locus identified. In this study, we applied data from well-characterised individuals studied at the London Twin Research Unit. Analysis of genome-wide SNP data from 3940 twins failed to identify any locus associated with handedness at a genome-wide level of significance. The most straightforward interpretation of our analyses is that they exclude the simplest formulations of the ‘right-shift' model of Annett and the ‘dextral/chance' model of McManus, although more complex modifications of those models are still compatible with our observations. For polygenic effects, our study is inadequately powered to reliably detect alleles with effect sizes corresponding to an odds ratio of 1.2, but should have good power to detect effects at an odds ratio of 2 or more. PMID:24065183

  14. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiwu; Buckler, Edward S; Casstevens, Terry M; Bradbury, Peter J

    2009-11-01

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample size and number of markers used for GWAS is increasing dramatically, resulting in greater statistical power to detect those associations. The use of mixed models with increasingly large data sets depends on the availability of software for analyzing those models. While multiple software packages implement the mixed model method, no single package provides the best combination of fast computation, ability to handle large samples, flexible modeling and ease of use. Key elements of association analysis with mixed models are reviewed, including modeling phenotype-genotype associations using mixed models, population stratification, kinship and its estimation, variance component estimation, use of best linear unbiased predictors or residuals in place of raw phenotype, improving efficiency and software-user interaction. The available software packages are evaluated, and suggestions made for future software development.

  15. Involvement of TRPM2 in a wide range of inflammatory and neuropathic pain mouse models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanako So

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests a role of transient receptor potential melastatin 2 (TRPM2 in immune and inflammatory responses. We previously reported that TRPM2 deficiency attenuated inflammatory and neuropathic pain in some pain mouse models, including formalin- or carrageenan-induced inflammatory pain, and peripheral nerve injury-induced neuropathic pain models, while it had no effect on the basal mechanical and thermal nociceptive sensitivities. In this study, we further explored the involvement of TRPM2 in various pain models using TRPM2-knockout mice. There were no differences in the chemonociceptive behaviors evoked by intraplantar injection of capsaicin or hydrogen peroxide between wildtype and TRPM2-knockout mice, while acetic acid-induced writhing behavior was significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. In the postoperative incisional pain model, no difference in mechanical allodynia was observed between the two genotypes. By contrast, mechanical allodynia in the monosodium iodoacetate-induced osteoarthritis pain model and the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis model were significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. Furthermore, mechanical allodynia in paclitaxel-induced peripheral neuropathy and streptozotocin-induced painful diabetic neuropathy models were significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. Taken together, these results suggest that TRPM2 plays roles in a wide range of pathological pain models based on peripheral and central neuroinflammation, rather than physiological nociceptive pain.

  16. GenoGAM: genome-wide generalized additive models for ChIP-Seq analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Georg; Engelhardt, Alexander; Schulz, Daniel; Schmid, Matthias; Tresch, Achim; Gagneur, Julien

    2017-08-01

    Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-Seq) is a widely used approach to study protein-DNA interactions. Often, the quantities of interest are the differential occupancies relative to controls, between genetic backgrounds, treatments, or combinations thereof. Current methods for differential occupancy of ChIP-Seq data rely however on binning or sliding window techniques, for which the choice of the window and bin sizes are subjective. Here, we present GenoGAM (Genome-wide Generalized Additive Model), which brings the well-established and flexible generalized additive models framework to genomic applications using a data parallelism strategy. We model ChIP-Seq read count frequencies as products of smooth functions along chromosomes. Smoothing parameters are objectively estimated from the data by cross-validation, eliminating ad hoc binning and windowing needed by current approaches. GenoGAM provides base-level and region-level significance testing for full factorial designs. Application to a ChIP-Seq dataset in yeast showed increased sensitivity over existing differential occupancy methods while controlling for type I error rate. By analyzing a set of DNA methylation data and illustrating an extension to a peak caller, we further demonstrate the potential of GenoGAM as a generic statistical modeling tool for genome-wide assays. Software is available from Bioconductor: https://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/GenoGAM.html . gagneur@in.tum.de. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  17. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.

    2007-12-01

    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  18. Surrogate runner model for draft tube losses computation within a wide range of operating points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susan-Resiga, R; Ciocan, T; Muntean, S; De Colombel, T; Leroy, P

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a quasi two-dimensional (Q2D) methodology for assessing the swirling flow exiting the runner of hydraulic turbines at arbitrary operating points, within a wide operating range. The Q2D model does not need actual runner computations, and as a result it represents a surrogate runner model for a-priori assessment of the swirling flow ingested by the draft tube. The axial, radial and circumferential velocity components are computed on a conical section located immediately downstream the runner blades trailing edge, then used as inlet conditions for regular draft tube computations. The main advantage of our model is that it allows the determination of the draft tube losses within the intended turbine operating range in the early design stages of a new or refurbished runner, thus providing a robust and systematic methodology to meet the optimal requirements for the flow at the runner outlet

  19. Statistical power of model selection strategies for genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheyang Wu

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS aim to identify genetic variants related to diseases by examining the associations between phenotypes and hundreds of thousands of genotyped markers. Because many genes are potentially involved in common diseases and a large number of markers are analyzed, it is crucial to devise an effective strategy to identify truly associated variants that have individual and/or interactive effects, while controlling false positives at the desired level. Although a number of model selection methods have been proposed in the literature, including marginal search, exhaustive search, and forward search, their relative performance has only been evaluated through limited simulations due to the lack of an analytical approach to calculating the power of these methods. This article develops a novel statistical approach for power calculation, derives accurate formulas for the power of different model selection strategies, and then uses the formulas to evaluate and compare these strategies in genetic model spaces. In contrast to previous studies, our theoretical framework allows for random genotypes, correlations among test statistics, and a false-positive control based on GWAS practice. After the accuracy of our analytical results is validated through simulations, they are utilized to systematically evaluate and compare the performance of these strategies in a wide class of genetic models. For a specific genetic model, our results clearly reveal how different factors, such as effect size, allele frequency, and interaction, jointly affect the statistical power of each strategy. An example is provided for the application of our approach to empirical research. The statistical approach used in our derivations is general and can be employed to address the model selection problems in other random predictor settings. We have developed an R package markerSearchPower to implement our formulas, which can be downloaded from the

  20. Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V; Sánchez, Brisa N

    2016-03-15

    It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment-health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001-2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store-BMIz associations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. World wide web and virtual reality in developing and using environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guariso, G.

    2001-01-01

    The application of World wide web as an active component of environmental decision support system is still largely unexplored. Environmental problems are distributed in nature, both from the physical and from the social point of view; the Web is thus an ideal tool to share concepts and decisions among multiple interested parties. Also Virtual Reality (VR) that has not find, up to know, a large application in the development and teaching of environmental models. The paper shows some recent applications that highlight the potential of these tools [it

  2. A nonlinear beam model to describe the postbuckling of wide neo-Hookean beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Luuk A.; van Hecke, Martin; Coulais, Corentin

    2017-09-01

    Wide beams can exhibit subcritical buckling, i.e. the slope of the force-displacement curve can become negative in the postbuckling regime. In this paper, we capture this intriguing behaviour by constructing a 1D nonlinear beam model, where the central ingredient is the nonlinearity in the stress-strain relation of the beams constitutive material. First, we present experimental and numerical evidence of a transition to subcritical buckling for wide neo-Hookean hyperelastic beams, when their width-to-length ratio exceeds a critical value of 12%. Second, we construct an effective 1D energy density by combining the Mindlin-Reissner kinematics with a nonlinearity in the stress-strain relation. Finally, we establish and solve the governing beam equations to analytically determine the slope of the force-displacement curve in the postbuckling regime. We find, without any adjustable parameters, excellent agreement between the 1D theory, experiments and simulations. Our work extends the understanding of the postbuckling of structures made of wide elastic beams and opens up avenues for the reverse-engineering of instabilities in soft and metamaterials.

  3. A Skew-t space-varying regression model for the spectral analysis of resting state brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Salimah; Sun, Wenqi; Nathoo, Farouk S; Babul, Arif; Moiseev, Alexader; Beg, Mirza Faisal; Virji-Babul, Naznin

    2013-08-01

    It is known that in many neurological disorders such as Down syndrome, main brain rhythms shift their frequencies slightly, and characterizing the spatial distribution of these shifts is of interest. This article reports on the development of a Skew-t mixed model for the spatial analysis of resting state brain activity in healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome. Time series of oscillatory brain activity are recorded using magnetoencephalography, and spectral summaries are examined at multiple sensor locations across the scalp. We focus on the mean frequency of the power spectral density, and use space-varying regression to examine associations with age, gender and Down syndrome across several scalp regions. Spatial smoothing priors are incorporated based on a multivariate Markov random field, and the markedly non-Gaussian nature of the spectral response variable is accommodated by the use of a Skew-t distribution. A range of models representing different assumptions on the association structure and response distribution are examined, and we conduct model selection using the deviance information criterion. (1) Our analysis suggests region-specific differences between healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome, particularly in the left and right temporal regions, and produces smoothed maps indicating the scalp topography of the estimated differences.

  4. An MHD simulation model of time-dependent global solar corona with temporally varying solar-surface magnetic field maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, K.

    2013-11-01

    We present a model of a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the sub-Alfvenic solar corona and super-Alfvenic solar wind with temporally varying solar-surface boundary magnetic field data. To (i) accommodate observational data with a somewhat arbitrarily evolving solar photospheric magnetic field as the boundary value and (ii) keep the divergence-free condition, we developed a boundary model, here named Confined Differential Potential Field model, that calculates the horizontal components of the magnetic field, from changes in the vertical component, as a potential field confined in a thin shell. The projected normal characteristic method robustly simulates the solar corona and solar wind, in response to the temporal variation of the boundary Br. We conduct test MHD simulations for two periods, from Carrington Rotation number 2009 to 2010 and from Carrington Rotation 2074 to 2075 at solar maximum and minimum of Cycle 23, respectively. We obtained several coronal features that a fixed boundary condition cannot yield, such as twisted magnetic field lines at the lower corona and the transition from an open-field coronal hole to a closed-field streamer. We also obtained slight improvements of the interplanetary magnetic field, including the latitudinal component, at Earth.

  5. Numerical modeling of solute transport in a sand tank physical model under varying hydraulic gradient and hydrological stresses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlabachew, Abunu; Shu, Longcang; Wu, Peipeng; Zhang, Yongjie; Xu, Yang

    2018-03-01

    This laboratory study improves the understanding of the impacts of horizontal hydraulic gradient, artificial recharge, and groundwater pumping on solute transport through aquifers. Nine experiments and numerical simulations were carried out using a sand tank. The variable-density groundwater flow and sodium chloride transport were simulated using the three-dimensional numerical model SEAWAT. Numerical modelling results successfully reproduced heads and concentrations observed in the sand tank. A higher horizontal hydraulic gradient enhanced the migration of sodium chloride, particularly in the groundwater flow direction. The application of constant artificial recharge increased the spread of the sodium chloride plume in both the longitudinal and lateral directions. In addition, groundwater pumping accelerated spreading of the sodium chloride plume towards the pumping well. Both higher hydraulic gradient and pumping rate generated oval-shaped plumes in the horizontal plane. However, the artificial recharge process produced stretched plumes. These effects of artificial recharge and groundwater pumping were greater under higher hydraulic gradient. The concentration breakthrough curves indicated that emerging solutions never attained the concentration of the originally injected solution. This is probably because of sorption of sodium chloride onto the silica sand and/or the exchange of sodium chloride between the mobile and immobile liquid domains. The fingering and protruding plume shapes in the numerical models constitute instability zones produced by buoyancy-driven flow. Overall, the results have substantiated the influences of hydraulic gradient, boundary condition, artificial recharge, pumping rate and density differences on solute transport through a homogeneous unconfined aquifer. The implications of these findings are important for managing liquid wastes.

  6. A wide-range model of two-group gross sections in the dynamics code HEXTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaloinen, E.; Peltonen, J.

    2002-01-01

    In dynamic analyses the thermal hydraulic conditions within the reactor core may have a large variation, which sets a special requirement on the modeling of cross sections. The standard model in the dynamics code HEXTRAN is the same as in the static design code HEXBU-3D/MODS. It is based on a linear and second order fitting of two-group cross sections on fuel and moderator temperature, moderator density and boron density. A new, wide-range model of cross sections developed in Fortum Nuclear Services for HEXBU-3D/MOD6 has been included as an option into HEXTRAN. In this model the nodal cross sections are constructed from seven state variables in a polynomial of more than 40 terms. Coefficients of the polynomial are created by a least squares fitting to the results of a large number of fuel assembly calculations. Depending on the choice of state variables for the spectrum calculations, the new cross section model is capable to cover local conditions from cold zero power to boiling at full power. The 5. dynamic benchmark problem of AER is analyzed with the new option and results are compared to calculations with the standard model of cross sections in HEXTRAN (Authors)

  7. Towards a benchmark simulation model for plant-wide control strategy performance evaluation of WWTPs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, Ulf; Rosen, Christian; Alex, Jens

    2006-01-01

    The COST/IWA benchmark simulation model has been available for seven years. Its primary purpose has been to create a platform for control strategy benchmarking of activated sludge processes. The fact that the benchmark has resulted in more than 100 publications, not only in Europe but also...... worldwide, demonstrates the interest in such a tool within the research community In this paper, an extension of the benchmark simulation model no 1 (BSM1) is proposed. This extension aims at facilitating control strategy development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level and, consequently...... the changes, the evaluation period has been extended to one year. A prolonged evaluation period allows for long-term control strategies to be assessed and enables the use of control handles that cannot be evaluated in a realistic fashion in the one-week BSM1 evaluation period. In the paper, the extended plant...

  8. Modeling and control of LCL-filtered grid-tied inverters with wide inductance variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Chuan; Li, Kai; Zhang, Gang

    2017-01-01

    with the changing of the inductor current in one cycle of the grid, which challenges the system stability and power quality. In this paper, the current-dependent small-signal model of a three-phase LCL-filtered inverter is derived for designing the corresponding controller. Based on the developed small-signal model......Because of the low power losses and moderate cost, the magnetic powder cores are popular in producing the filtering inductors for the high efficient and cost-effective power converters. However, the soft magnetic property of the powder cores leads to the wide variation of inductance along......, a capacitor current feedback based active damping loop and a fractional order repetitive control based compound current control loop are designed to stabilize the system and enhance the control accuracy in steady-state, respectively. The controller design procedure is given in detail. Finally, all...

  9. Cellular automaton model in the fundamental diagram approach reproducing the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Jun-fang; Yuan, Zhen-zhou; Jia, Bin; Fan, Hong-qiang; Wang, Tao

    2012-01-01

    Velocity effect and critical velocity are incorporated into the average space gap cellular automaton model [J.F. Tian, et al., Phys. A 391 (2012) 3129], which was able to reproduce many spatiotemporal dynamics reported by the three-phase theory except the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams. The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. It is shown that the occurrence of synchronized outflow, free outflow of wide moving jams is closely related with drivers time delay in acceleration at the downstream jam front and the critical velocity, respectively. -- Highlights: ► Velocity effect is added into average space gap cellular automaton model. ► The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. ► The probabilistic nature of traffic breakdown is simulated. ► Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. ► The occurrence of synchronized outflow of jams depends on drivers time delay.

  10. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley K Thompson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD and the other for schizophrenia (SZ. A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the

  11. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Wesley K; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J; Witoelar, Aree; Zuber, Verena; Xu, Shujing; Werge, Thomas; Holland, Dominic; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD) on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the implications of

  12. Cost-benefit analysis model: A tool for area-wide fruit fly management. Procedures manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enkerlin, W.; Mumford, J.; Leach, A.

    2007-03-01

    The Generic Fruit Fly Cost-Benefit Analysis Model assists in economic decision making associated with area-wide fruit fly control options. The FRUIT FLY COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS PROGRAM (available on 1 CD-ROM from the Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture) is an Excel 2000 Windows based program, for which all standard Windows and Excel conventions apply. The Model is user friendly and thus largely self-explanatory. Nevertheless, it includes a procedures manual that has been prepared to guide the user, and thus should be used together with the software. Please note that the table presenting the pest management options in the Introductory Page of the model is controlled by spin buttons and click boxes. These controls are linked to macros that hide non relevant tables and boxes. N.B. it is important that the medium level of security is selected from the Tools menu of Excel, to do this go to Tools|Macros|Security| and select Medium. When the file is opened a form will appear containing three buttons, click on the middle button, 'Enable Macros', so that the macros may be used. Ideally the model should be used as a support tool by working groups aiming at assessing the economic returns of different fruit fly control options (suppression, eradication, containment and prevention). The working group should include professionals in agriculture with experience in area-wide implementation of integrated pest management programmes, an economist or at least someone with basic knowledge in economics, and if relevant, an entomologist with some background in the application of the sterile insect technique (SIT)

  13. The Effect of Varying Jaw-elevator Muscle Forces on a Finite Element Model of a Human Cranium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro-Ibacache, Viviana; O'Higgins, Paul

    2016-07-01

    Finite element analyses simulating masticatory system loading are increasingly undertaken in primates, hominin fossils and modern humans. Simplifications of models and loadcases are often required given the limits of data and technology. One such area of uncertainty concerns the forces applied to cranial models and their sensitivity to variations in these forces. We assessed the effect of varying force magnitudes among jaw-elevator muscles applied to a finite element model of a human cranium. The model was loaded to simulate incisor and molar bites using different combinations of muscle forces. Symmetric, asymmetric, homogeneous, and heterogeneous muscle activations were simulated by scaling maximal forces. The effects were compared with respect to strain distribution (i.e., modes of deformation) and magnitudes; bite forces and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) reaction forces. Predicted modes of deformation, strain magnitudes and bite forces were directly proportional to total applied muscle force and relatively insensitive to the degree of heterogeneity of muscle activation. However, TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains decrease and increase on the balancing and working sides according to the degree of asymmetry of loading. These results indicate that when modes, rather than magnitudes, of facial deformation are of interest, errors in applied muscle forces have limited effects. However the degree of asymmetric loading does impact on TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains. These findings are of particular interest in relation to studies of skeletal and fossil material, where muscle data are not available and estimation of muscle forces from skeletal proxies is prone to error. Anat Rec, 299:828-839, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

    2015-06-01

    We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

  15. Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, H.; Klaassen, G.

    2000-01-01

    In March 1997 the European Commission adopted a proposal that increases existing minimum levels of taxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% and introduces excises for other energy products. This paper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the proposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, and E3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will have positive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenues are used to reduce social security contributions paid by employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP and employment are expected to be higher and CO2 emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positive EU-wide effects can be observed in practically all member states. The sector impacts are modest, with the energy sector expected to face the most negative impacts. Differences between model results are due to the model type (general equilibrium or macro-econometric), the EU countries covered and the way tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptions to obtain the 'double dividend' are the modelling of the labour market and the impacts on EU external trade. The sensitivity of the results for the use of tax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases is assessed. 21 refs

  16. Topology preserving non-rigid image registration using time-varying elasticity model for MRI brain volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Sahar; Khan, Muhammad Faisal

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we present a new non-rigid image registration method that imposes a topology preservation constraint on the deformation. We propose to incorporate the time varying elasticity model into the deformable image matching procedure and constrain the Jacobian determinant of the transformation over the entire image domain. The motion of elastic bodies is governed by a hyperbolic partial differential equation, generally termed as elastodynamics wave equation, which we propose to use as a deformation model. We carried out clinical image registration experiments on 3D magnetic resonance brain scans from IBSR database. The results of the proposed registration approach in terms of Kappa index and relative overlap computed over the subcortical structures were compared against the existing topology preserving non-rigid image registration methods and non topology preserving variant of our proposed registration scheme. The Jacobian determinant maps obtained with our proposed registration method were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results demonstrated that the proposed scheme provides good registration accuracy with smooth transformations, thereby guaranteeing the preservation of topology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Neopuff T-piece resuscitator mask ventilation: Does mask leak vary with different peak inspiratory pressures in a manikin model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheshwari, Rajesh; Tracy, Mark; Hinder, Murray; Wright, Audrey

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare mask leak with three different peak inspiratory pressure (PIP) settings during T-piece resuscitator (TPR; Neopuff) mask ventilation on a neonatal manikin model. Participants were neonatal unit staff members. They were instructed to provide mask ventilation with a TPR with three PIP settings (20, 30, 40 cm H 2 O) chosen in a random order. Each episode was for 2 min with 2-min rest period. Flow rate and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were kept constant. Airway pressure, inspiratory and expiratory tidal volumes, mask leak, respiratory rate and inspiratory time were recorded. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used for statistical analysis. A total of 12 749 inflations delivered by 40 participants were analysed. There were no statistically significant differences (P > 0.05) in the mask leak with the three PIP settings. No statistically significant differences were seen in respiratory rate and inspiratory time with the three PIP settings. There was a significant rise in PEEP as the PIP increased. Failure to achieve the desired PIP was observed especially at the higher settings. In a neonatal manikin model, the mask leak does not vary as a function of the PIP when the flow rate is constant. With a fixed rate and inspiratory time, there seems to be a rise in PEEP with increasing PIP. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  18. A discrete time-varying internal model-based approach for high precision tracking of a multi-axis servo gantry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Yan, Peng; Jiang, Huan; Ye, Peiqing

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we consider the discrete time-varying internal model-based control design for high precision tracking of complicated reference trajectories generated by time-varying systems. Based on a novel parallel time-varying internal model structure, asymptotic tracking conditions for the design of internal model units are developed, and a low order robust time-varying stabilizer is further synthesized. In a discrete time setting, the high precision tracking control architecture is deployed on a Voice Coil Motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system, where numerical simulations and real time experimental results are provided, achieving the tracking errors around 3.5‰ for frequency-varying signals. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

  20. A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Tu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK and Precise Point Positioning (PPP service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2–3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC and Differential Code Bias (DCB values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

  1. Constitutive modeling of polycarbonate over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Zhou, Huamin; Huang, Zhigao; Zhang, Yun; Zhao, Xiaoxuan

    2017-02-01

    The mechanical behavior of polycarbonate was experimentally investigated over a wide range of strain rates (10^{-4} to 5× 103 s^{-1}) and temperatures (293 to 353 K). Compression tests under these conditions were performed using a SHIMADZU universal testing machine and a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Falling weight impact testing was carried out on an Instron Dynatup 9200 drop tower system. The rate- and temperature-dependent deformation behavior of polycarbonate was discussed in detail. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) tests were utilized to observe the glass (α ) transition and the secondary (β ) transition of polycarbonate. The DMA results indicate that the α and β transitions have a dramatic influence on the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The decompose/shift/reconstruct (DSR) method was utilized to decompose the storage modulus into the α and β components and extrapolate the entire modulus, the α-component modulus and the β-component modulus. Based on three previous models, namely, Mulliken-Boyce, G'Sell-Jonas and DSGZ, an adiabatic model is proposed to predict the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The model considers the contributions of both the α and β transitions to the mechanical behavior, and it has been implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit through a user material subroutine VUMAT. The model predictions are proven to essentially coincide with the experimental results during compression testing and falling weight impact testing.

  2. On the potential of models for location and scale for genome-wide DNA methylation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Simone; Fenske, Nora; Zeilinger, Sonja; Suhre, Karsten; Gieger, Christian; Waldenberger, Melanie; Grallert, Harald; Schmid, Matthias

    2014-07-03

    With the help of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS), increasing knowledge on the role of epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation in disease processes is obtained. In addition, EWAS aid the understanding of behavioral and environmental effects on DNA methylation. In terms of statistical analysis, specific challenges arise from the characteristics of methylation data. First, methylation β-values represent proportions with skewed and heteroscedastic distributions. Thus, traditional modeling strategies assuming a normally distributed response might not be appropriate. Second, recent evidence suggests that not only mean differences but also variability in site-specific DNA methylation associates with diseases, including cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare different modeling strategies for methylation data in terms of model performance and performance of downstream hypothesis tests. Specifically, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to compare beta regression with Gaussian regression on raw, binary logit and arcsine square root transformed methylation data, with and without modeling a covariate effect on the scale parameter. Using simulated and real data from a large population-based study and an independent sample of cancer patients and healthy controls, we show that beta regression does not outperform competing strategies in terms of model performance. In addition, Gaussian models for location and scale showed an improved performance as compared to models for location only. The best performance was observed for the Gaussian model on binary logit transformed β-values, referred to as M-values. Our results further suggest that models for location and scale are specifically sensitive towards violations of the distribution assumption and towards outliers in the methylation data. Therefore, a resampling procedure is proposed as a mode of inference and shown to diminish type I error rate in

  3. A varying coefficient model to measure the effectiveness of mass media anti-smoking campaigns in generating calls to a Quitline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Quang M; Huggins, Richard M; Hwang, Wen-Han; White, Victoria; Erbas, Bircan

    2010-01-01

    Anti-smoking advertisements are an effective population-based smoking reduction strategy. The Quitline telephone service provides a first point of contact for adults considering quitting. Because of data complexity, the relationship between anti-smoking advertising placement, intensity, and time trends in total call volume is poorly understood. In this study we use a recently developed semi-varying coefficient model to elucidate this relationship. Semi-varying coefficient models comprise parametric and nonparametric components. The model is fitted to the daily number of calls to Quitline in Victoria, Australia to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric terms for day-of-the-week effects and to clarify the relationship with target audience rating points (TARPs) for the Quit and nicotine replacement advertising campaigns. The number of calls to Quitline increased with the TARP value of both the Quit and other smoking cessation advertisement; the TARP values associated with the Quit program were almost twice as effective. The varying coefficient term was statistically significant for peak periods with little or no advertising. Semi-varying coefficient models are useful for modeling public health data when there is little or no information on other factors related to the at-risk population. These models are well suited to modeling call volume to Quitline, because the varying coefficient allowed the underlying time trend to depend on fixed covariates that also vary with time, thereby explaining more of the variation in the call model.

  4. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for a model invasive ascidian Botryllus schlosseri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yangchun; Li, Shiguo; Zhan, Aibin

    2018-04-01

    Invasive species cause huge damages to ecology, environment and economy globally. The comprehensive understanding of invasion mechanisms, particularly genetic bases of micro-evolutionary processes responsible for invasion success, is essential for reducing potential damages caused by invasive species. The golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri, has become a model species in invasion biology, mainly owing to its high invasiveness nature and small well-sequenced genome. However, the genome-wide genetic markers have not been well developed in this highly invasive species, thus limiting the comprehensive understanding of genetic mechanisms of invasion success. Using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) tag sequencing, here we developed a high-quality resource of 14,119 out of 158,821 SNPs for B. schlosseri. These SNPs were relatively evenly distributed at each chromosome. SNP annotations showed that the majority of SNPs (63.20%) were located at intergenic regions, and 21.51% and 14.58% were located at introns and exons, respectively. In addition, the potential use of the developed SNPs for population genomics studies was primarily assessed, such as the estimate of observed heterozygosity (H O ), expected heterozygosity (H E ), nucleotide diversity (π), Wright's inbreeding coefficient (F IS ) and effective population size (Ne). Our developed SNP resource would provide future studies the genome-wide genetic markers for genetic and genomic investigations, such as genetic bases of micro-evolutionary processes responsible for invasion success.

  5. Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

    2014-11-01

    We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

  6. LASSIM-A network inference toolbox for genome-wide mechanistic modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Magnusson

    2017-06-01

    with truly systems-level data. We demonstrate the power of this approach by inferring a mechanistically motivated, genome-wide model of the Th2 transcription regulatory system, which plays an important role in several immune related diseases.

  7. A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philipp, Oliver; Hamann, Andrea; Servos, Jörg; Werner, Alexandra; Koch, Ina; Osiewacz, Heinz D

    2013-01-01

    Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression). A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i) present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii) suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii) present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

  8. A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Philipp

    Full Text Available Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression. A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

  9. Ground target geolocation based on digital elevation model for airborne wide-area reconnaissance system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Chuan; Ding, Yalin; Xu, Yongsen; Xiu, Jihong

    2018-01-01

    To obtain the geographical position of the ground target accurately, a geolocation algorithm based on the digital elevation model (DEM) is developed for an airborne wide-area reconnaissance system. According to the platform position and attitude information measured by the airborne position and orientation system and the gimbal angles information from the encoder, the line-of-sight pointing vector in the Earth-centered Earth-fixed coordinate frame is solved by the homogeneous coordinate transformation. The target longitude and latitude can be solved with the elliptical Earth model and the global DEM. The influences of the systematic error and measurement error on ground target geolocation calculation accuracy are analyzed by the Monte Carlo method. The simulation results show that this algorithm can improve the geolocation accuracy of ground target in rough terrain area obviously. The geolocation accuracy of moving ground target can be improved by moving average filtering (MAF). The validity of the geolocation algorithm is verified by the flight test in which the plane flies at a geodetic height of 15,000 m and the outer gimbal angle is <47°. The geolocation root mean square error of the target trajectory is <45 and <7 m after MAF.

  10. Hierarchical modeling of genome-wide Short Tandem Repeat (STR) markers infers native American prehistory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Cecil M

    2010-02-01

    This study examines a genome-wide dataset of 678 Short Tandem Repeat loci characterized in 444 individuals representing 29 Native American populations as well as the Tundra Netsi and Yakut populations from Siberia. Using these data, the study tests four current hypotheses regarding the hierarchical distribution of neutral genetic variation in native South American populations: (1) the western region of South America harbors more variation than the eastern region of South America, (2) Central American and western South American populations cluster exclusively, (3) populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan and Equatorial-Tucanoan language stock emerge as a group within an otherwise South American clade, (4) Chibchan-Paezan populations in Central America emerge together at the tips of the Chibchan-Paezan cluster. This study finds that hierarchical models with the best fit place Central American populations, and populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan language stock, at a basal position or separated from the South American group, which is more consistent with a serial founder effect into South America than that previously described. Western (Andean) South America is found to harbor similar levels of variation as eastern (Equatorial-Tucanoan and Ge-Pano-Carib) South America, which is inconsistent with an initial west coast migration into South America. Moreover, in all relevant models, the estimates of genetic diversity within geographic regions suggest a major bottleneck or founder effect occurring within the North American subcontinent, before the peopling of Central and South America. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  11. A Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Model for the Waipaoa Shelf, New Zealand: Sensitivity of Fluxes to Spatially-Varying Erodibility and Model Nesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia M. Moriarty

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models can complement observations in investigations of marine sediment transport and depositional processes. A coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model was implemented for the Waipaoa River continental shelf offshore of the North Island of New Zealand, to complement a 13-month field campaign that collected seabed and hydrodynamic measurements. This paper described the formulations used within the model, and analyzed the sensitivity of sediment flux estimates to model nesting and seabed erodibility. Calculations were based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System—Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (ROMS-CSTMS, a primitive equation model using a finite difference solution to the equations for momentum and water mass conservation, and transport of salinity, temperature, and multiple classes of suspended sediment. The three-dimensional model resolved the complex bathymetry, bottom boundary layer, and river plume that impact sediment dispersal on this shelf, and accounted for processes including fluvial input, winds, waves, tides, and sediment resuspension. Nesting within a larger-scale, lower resolution hydrodynamic model stabilized model behavior during river floods and allowed large-scale shelf currents to impact sediment dispersal. To better represent observations showing that sediment erodibility decreased away from the river mouth, the seabed erosion rate parameter was reduced with water depth. This allowed the model to account for the observed spatial pattern of erodibility, though the model held the critical shear stress for erosion constant. Although the model neglected consolidation and swelling processes, use of a spatially-varying erodibility parameter significantly increased export of fluvial sediment from Poverty Bay to deeper areas of the shelf.

  12. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-01-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. PMID:25281847

  13. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-05-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  14. Testing Quantum Models of Conjunction Fallacy on the World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; Arguëlles, Jonito Aerts; Beltran, Lester; Beltran, Lyneth; de Bianchi, Massimiliano Sassoli; Sozzo, Sandro; Veloz, Tomas

    2017-12-01

    The `conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches have been put forward: the first assumes that respondents use a two-step sequential reasoning and that the fallacy results from the presence of `question order effects'; the second assumes that respondents evaluate the cognitive situation as a whole and that the fallacy results from the `emergence of new meanings', as an `effect of overextension' in the conceptual conjunction. Thus, the question arises as to determine whether and to what extent conjunction fallacies would result from `order effects' or, instead, from `emergence effects'. To help clarify this situation, we propose to use the World Wide Web as an `information space' that can be interrogated both in a sequential and non-sequential way, to test these two quantum approaches. We find that `emergence effects', and not `order effects', should be considered the main cognitive mechanism producing the observed conjunction fallacies.

  15. Applicability of the Linear Sorption Isotherm Model to Represent Contaminant Transport Processes in Site Wide Performance Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FOGWELL, T.W.; LAST, G.V.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of flux of contaminants through the vadose zone to the groundwater under varying geologic, hydrologic, and chemical conditions is key to making technically credible and sound decisions regarding soil site characterization and remediation, single-shell tank retrieval, and waste site closures (DOE 2000). One of the principal needs identified in the science and technology roadmap (DOE 2000) is the need to improve the conceptual and numerical models that describe the location of contaminants today, and to provide the basis for forecasting future movement of contaminants on both site-specific and site-wide scales. The State of Knowledge (DOE 1999) and Preliminary Concepts documents describe the importance of geochemical processes on the transport of contaminants through the Vadose Zone. These processes have been identified in the international list of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) (NEA 2000) and included in the list of FEPS currently being developed for Hanford Site assessments (Soler et al. 2001). The current vision for Hanford site-wide cumulative risk assessments as performed using the System Assessment Capability (SAC) is to represent contaminant adsorption using the linear isotherm (empirical distribution coefficient, K d ) sorption model. Integration Project Expert Panel (PEP) comments indicate that work is required to adequately justify the applicability of the linear sorption model, and to identify and defend the range of K d values that are adopted for assessments. The work plans developed for the Science and Technology (S and T) efforts, SAC, and the Core Projects must answer directly the question of ''Is there a scientific basis for the application of the linear sorption isotherm model to the complex wastes of the Hanford Site?'' This paper is intended to address these issues. The reason that well documented justification is required for using the linear sorption (K d ) model is that this approach is strictly empirical and is often

  16. Genome-wide transcriptomics of aging in the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas, an emerging model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gribble, Kristin E; Mark Welch, David B

    2017-03-01

    Understanding gene expression changes over lifespan in diverse animal species will lead to insights to conserved processes in the biology of aging and allow development of interventions to improve health. Rotifers are small aquatic invertebrates that have been used in aging studies for nearly 100 years and are now re-emerging as a modern model system. To provide a baseline to evaluate genetic responses to interventions that change health throughout lifespan and a framework for new hypotheses about the molecular genetic mechanisms of aging, we examined the transcriptome of an asexual female lineage of the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas at five life stages: eggs, neonates, and early-, late-, and post-reproductive adults. There are widespread shifts in gene expression over the lifespan of B. manjavacas; the largest change occurs between neonates and early reproductive adults and is characterized by down-regulation of developmental genes and up-regulation of genes involved in reproduction. The expression profile of post-reproductive adults was distinct from that of other life stages. While few genes were significantly differentially expressed in the late- to post-reproductive transition, gene set enrichment analysis revealed multiple down-regulated pathways in metabolism, maintenance and repair, and proteostasis, united by genes involved in mitochondrial function and oxidative phosphorylation. This study provides the first examination of changes in gene expression over lifespan in rotifers. We detected differential expression of many genes with human orthologs that are absent in Drosophila and C. elegans, highlighting the potential of the rotifer model in aging studies. Our findings suggest that small but coordinated changes in expression of many genes in pathways that integrate diverse functions drive the aging process. The observation of simultaneous declines in expression of genes in multiple pathways may have consequences for health and longevity not detected by

  17. A two-dimensional hybrid method for modeling seismic waves propagation in laterally-varying anisotropic media and its application to central Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, L.; Wen, L.

    2009-12-01

    The shear wave splitting measurements provide important information on mantle flow, deformation and mineralogy. They are now routinely made using the method developed by Silver and Chan (1994). More and more dense regional observations also begin to reveal sharp spatial variations of seismic anisotropy which could not be explained by simplified horizontal homogeneous anisotropic structures. To better constrain the mantle anisotropy beneath those regions, we developed a two-dimensional hybrid method for simulating seismic wave propagation in laterally-varying anisotropic media [Zhao et al., 2008]. In this presentation, we apply the method to study anisotropic structures beneath central Tibet by waveform modeling the teleseismic SKS phases recorded in the International Deep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalayas project (INDEPTH) III. Using data from two events that were selected such that the stations and sources can be approximated as a two-dimensional profile, we derived an optimal model for the anisotropic structures of the upper mantle beneath the study region: a 50-70 km thick anisotropic layer with a fast direction trending N95°E beneath the Qiangtang block, a 150 km thick and 60 km wide anisotropic segment with an axis trending N95°E beneath the northernmost Lhasa block, and a ~30 km wide transition zone in between within which the fast direction trends N45°E and the depth extent of anisotropy decreases northward sharply. Synthetic waveform modeling further suggests that an anisotropic model with a horizontal symmetry axis can explain the observations better than that with a dipping symmetry, and a low velocity zone possibly underlies or mixes with the anisotropic structures in the northern portion of the region. The optimal model yields synthetic seismograms that are in good agreement with the observations in both amplitudes and relative arrival times of SKS phases. Synthetic tests also indicate that different elastic constants, source parameters and depth

  18. Controversy in the allometric application of fixed- versus varying-exponent models: a statistical and mathematical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Huadong; Hussain, Azher; Leal, Mauricio; Fluhler, Eric; Mayersohn, Michael

    2011-02-01

    This commentary is a reply to a recent article by Mahmood commenting on the authors' article on the use of fixed-exponent allometry in predicting human clearance. The commentary discusses eight issues that are related to criticisms made in Mahmood's article and examines the controversies (fixed-exponent vs. varying-exponent allometry) from the perspective of statistics and mathematics. The key conclusion is that any allometric method, which is to establish a power function based on a limited number of animal species and to extrapolate the resulting power function to human values (varying-exponent allometry), is infused with fundamental statistical errors. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model. Roadmap to Effective Intervention Practices #7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Lise; Veguilla, Myrna; Perez Binder, Denise

    2014-01-01

    The Technical Assistance Center on Social Emotional Intervention for Young Children (TACSEI) Roadmap on "Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model" provides programs with guidance on how to collect and use data to ensure the implementation of the Pyramid Model with fidelity and decision-making that…

  20. An Approach for Patient-Specific Multi-domain Vascular Mesh Generation Featuring Spatially Varying Wall Thickness Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Raut, Samarth S.; Liu, Peng; Finol, Ender A.

    2015-01-01

    In this work, we present a computationally efficient image-derived volume mesh generation approach for vasculatures that implements spatially varying patient-specific wall thickness with a novel inward extrusion of the wall surface mesh. Multi-domain vascular meshes with arbitrary numbers, locations, and patterns of both iliac bifurcations and thrombi can be obtained without the need to specify features or landmark points as input. In addition, the mesh output is coordinate-frame independent ...

  1. An automated method to morph finite element whole-body human models with a wide range of stature and body shape for both men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Fanta, Abeselom; Reed, Matthew P; Neal, Mark; Wang, Jenne-Tai; Lin, Chin-Hsu; Hu, Jingwen

    2017-07-26

    Field data analyses have shown that small female, obese, and/or older occupants are at increased risks of death and serious injury in motor-vehicle crashes compared with mid-size young men. The current adult finite element (FE) human models represent occupants in the same three body sizes (large male, mid-size male, and small female) as those for the contemporary adult crash dummies. Further, the time needed to develop an FE human model using the traditional method is measured in months or even years. In the current study, an improved regional mesh morphing method based on landmark-based radial basis function (RBF) interpolation was developed to rapidly morph a mid-size male FE human model into different geometry targets. A total of 100 human models with a wide range of human attributes were generated. A pendulum chest impact condition was applied to each model as an initial assessment of the resulting variability in response. The morphed models demonstrated mesh quality similar to the baseline model. The peak impact forces and chest deflections in the chest pendulum impacts varied substantially with different models, supportive of consideration of population variation in evaluating the occupant injury risks. The method developed in this study will enable future safety design optimizations targeting at various vulnerable populations that cannot be considered with the current models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Efficient genome-wide association in biobanks using topic modeling identifies multiple novel disease loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Snapper, Leslie A; Hart, Kamber L; Perlis, Roy H

    2017-08-31

    Biobanks and national registries represent a powerful tool for genomic discovery, but rely on diagnostic codes that may be unreliable and fail to capture the relationship between related diagnoses. We developed an efficient means of conducting genome-wide association studies using combinations of diagnostic codes from electronic health records (EHR) for 10845 participants in a biobanking program at two large academic medical centers. Specifically, we applied latent Dirichilet allocation to fit 50 disease topics based on diagnostic codes, then conducted genome-wide common-variant association for each topic. In sensitivity analysis, these results were contrasted with those obtained from traditional single-diagnosis phenome-wide association analysis, as well as those in which only a subset of diagnostic codes are included per topic. In meta-analysis across three biobank cohorts, we identified 23 disease-associated loci with p<1e-15, including previously associated autoimmune disease loci. In all cases, observed significant associations were of greater magnitude than for single phenome-wide diagnostic codes, and incorporation of less strongly-loading diagnostic codes enhanced association. This strategy provides a more efficient means of phenome-wide association in biobanks with coded clinical data.

  3. Benefits of a Unified LaSRS++ Simulation for NAS-Wide and High-Fidelity Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaab, Patricia; Madden, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The LaSRS++ high-fidelity vehicle simulation was extended in 2012 to support a NAS-wide simulation mode. Since the initial proof-of-concept, the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulation is maturing into a research-ready tool. A primary benefit of this new capability is the consolidation of the two modeling paradigms under a single framework to save cost, facilitate iterative concept testing between the two tools, and to promote communication and model sharing between user communities at Langley. Specific benefits of each type of modeling are discussed along with the expected benefits of the unified framework. Current capability details of the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulations are provided, including the visualization tool, live data interface, trajectory generators, terminal routing for arrivals and departures, maneuvering, re-routing, navigation, winds, and turbulence. The plan for future development is also described.

  4. Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annestiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    A new multivariate volatility model that belongs to the family of conditional correlation GARCH models is introduced. The GARCH equations of this model contain a multiplicative deterministic component to describe long-run movements in volatility and, in addition, the correlations...

  5. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  6. Meta-analysis of genome-wide association from genomic prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A limitation of many genome-wide association studies (GWA) in animal breeding is that there are many loci with small effect sizes; thus, larger sample sizes (N) are required to guarantee suitable power of detection. To increase sample size, results from different GWA can be combined in a meta-analys...

  7. Out-of-plane buckling of roller bent wide flange arches - imperfections and finite element modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoorenberg, R.C.; Snijder, H.H.; Hoenderkamp, J.C.D.; Beg, D.; Chan, S.L.; Shu, G.P.

    2012-01-01

    Steel arches are used more and more in contemporary architecture, combining structural efficiency with architectural merits. If lateral supports are absent, these arches are prone to out-of-plane buckling. Arches are often made by cold bending wide flange beams at ambient temperature. This

  8. Modeling uranium(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite under varying carbonate concentrations: A surface complexation model accounting for the spillover effect on surface potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournassat, C.; Tinnacher, R. M.; Grangeon, S.; Davis, J. A.

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of U(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite clay is confounded by the complexities of: (1) the montmorillonite structure in terms of adsorption sites on basal and edge surfaces, and the complex interactions between the electrical double layers at these surfaces, and (2) U(VI) solution speciation, which can include cationic, anionic and neutral species. Previous U(VI)-montmorillonite adsorption and modeling studies have typically expanded classical surface complexation modeling approaches, initially developed for simple oxides, to include both cation exchange and surface complexation reactions. However, previous models have not taken into account the unique characteristics of electrostatic surface potentials that occur at montmorillonite edge sites, where the electrostatic surface potential of basal plane cation exchange sites influences the surface potential of neighboring edge sites ('spillover' effect). A series of U(VI) - Na-montmorillonite batch adsorption experiments was conducted as a function of pH, with variable U(VI), Ca, and dissolved carbonate concentrations. Based on the experimental data, a new type of surface complexation model (SCM) was developed for montmorillonite, that specifically accounts for the spillover effect using the edge surface speciation model by Tournassat et al. (2016a). The SCM allows for a prediction of U(VI) adsorption under varying chemical conditions with a minimum number of fitting parameters, not only for our own experimental results, but also for a number of published data sets. The model agreed well with many of these datasets without introducing a second site type or including the formation of ternary U(VI)-carbonato surface complexes. The model predictions were greatly impacted by utilizing analytical measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations in individual sample solutions rather than assuming solution equilibration with a specific partial pressure of CO2, even when the gas phase was

  9. Interacting viscous entropy-corrected holographic scalar field models of dark energy with time-varying G in modified FRW cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adabi, Farzin; Karami, Kayoomars; Felegary, Fereshte; Azarmi, Zohre

    2012-01-01

    We study the entropy-corrected version of the holographic dark energy (HDE) model in the framework of modified Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology. We consider a non-flat universe filled with an interacting viscous entropy-corrected HDE (ECHDE) with dark matter. Also included in our model is the case of the variable gravitational constant G. We obtain the equation of state and the deceleration parameters of the interacting viscous ECHDE. Moreover, we reconstruct the potential and the dynamics of the quintessence, tachyon, K-essence and dilaton scalar field models according to the evolutionary behavior of the interacting viscous ECHDE model with time-varying G. (research papers)

  10. Noncognitive Factors in an Elementary School-Wide Arts Integrated Model

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson Steele, Jamie

    2016-01-01

    Pomaika‘i Elementary School has answered a call to improve education by providing content instruction through the arts. How does school wide arts integration in an elementary setting support students as they transition to middle school? This bounded case study examines the experiences of eight families through a series of interviews with students, parents, and teachers. It describes and explains learning through the arts within three overarching noncognitive factors: a) academic mindsets, or ...

  11. Validation of a plant-wide phosphorus modelling approach with minerals precipitation in a full-scale WWTP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien John

    2016-01-01

    approach describing ion speciation and ion pairing with kinetic multiple minerals precipitation. Model performance is evaluated against data sets from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant, assessing capability to describe water and sludge lines across the treatment process under steady-state operation...... plant. Dynamic influent profiles were generated using a calibrated influent generator and were used to study the effect of long-term influent dynamics on plant performance. Model-based analysis shows that minerals precipitation strongly influences composition in the anaerobic digesters, but also impacts......The focus of modelling in wastewater treatment is shifting from single unit to plant-wide scale. Plant wide modelling approaches provide opportunities to study the dynamics and interactions of different transformations in water and sludge streams. Towards developing more general and robust...

  12. Hydrological application of the INCA model with varying spatial resolution and nitrogen dynamics in a northern river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rankinen

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available As a first step in applying the Integrated Nitrogen model for CAtchments (INCA to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2, this paper focuses on calibration of the hydrological part of the model and nitrogen (N dynamics in the river during the 1980s and 1990s. The model application utilised the GIS land-use and forest classification of Finland together with a recent forest inventory based on remote sensing. In the INCA model, the Hydrologically Effective Rainfall (HER is used to drive the water flow and N fluxes through the catchment system. HER was derived from the Watershed Simulation and Forecast System (WSFS. The basic component of the WSFS is a conceptual hydrological model which simulates runoff using precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature data as inputs. Spatially uniform, lumped input data were calculated for the whole river basin and spatially semi-distributed input data were calculated for each of the nine sub-basins. When comparing discharges simulated by the INCA model with observed values, a better fit was obtained with the semi-distributed data than with the spatially uniform data (R2 0.78 v. 0.70 at Hosionkoski and 0.88 v. 0.78 at the river outlet. The timing of flow peaks was simulated rather well with both approaches, although the semi-distributed input data gave a more realistic simulation of low flow periods and the magnitude of spring flow peaks. The river basin has a relatively closed N cycle with low input and output fluxes of inorganic N. During 1982-2000, the average total N flux to the sea was 715 tonnes yr–1, of which 6% was NH4-N, 14% NO3-N, and 80% organic N. Annual variation in river flow and the concentrations of major N fractions in river water, and factors affecting this variation are discussed. Keywords: northern river basin, nitrogen, forest management, hydrology, dynamic modelling, semi-distributed modelling

  13. Adaptation and inhibition underlie responses to time-varying interaural phase cues in a model of inferior colliculus neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borisyuk, Alla; Semple, Malcolm N; Rinzel, John

    2002-10-01

    A mathematical model was developed for exploring the sensitivity of low-frequency inferior colliculus (IC) neurons to interaural phase disparity (IPD). The formulation involves a firing-rate-type model that does not include spikes per se. The model IC neuron receives IPD-tuned excitatory and inhibitory inputs (viewed as the output of a collection of cells in the medial superior olive). The model cell possesses cellular properties of firing rate adaptation and postinhibitory rebound (PIR). The descriptions of these mechanisms are biophysically reasonable, but only semi-quantitative. We seek to explain within a minimal model the experimentally observed mismatch between responses to IPD stimuli delivered dynamically and those delivered statically (McAlpine et al. 2000; Spitzer and Semple 1993). The model reproduces many features of the responses to static IPD presentations, binaural beat, and partial range sweep stimuli. These features include differences in responses to a stimulus presented in static or dynamic context: sharper tuning and phase shifts in response to binaural beats, and hysteresis and "rise-from-nowhere" in response to partial range sweeps. Our results suggest that dynamic response features are due to the structure of inputs and the presence of firing rate adaptation and PIR mechanism in IC cells, but do not depend on a specific biophysical mechanism. We demonstrate how the model's various components contribute to shaping the observed phenomena. For example, adaptation, PIR, and transmission delay shape phase advances and delays in responses to binaural beats, adaptation and PIR shape hysteresis in different ranges of IPD, and tuned inhibition underlies asymmetry in dynamic tuning properties. We also suggest experiments to test our modeling predictions: in vitro simulation of the binaural beat (phase advance at low beat frequencies, its dependence on firing rate), in vivo partial range sweep experiments (dependence of the hysteresis curve on

  14. A model to increase rehabilitation adherence to home exercise programmes in patients with varying levels of self-efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picha, Kelsey J; Howell, Dana M

    2018-03-01

    Patient adherence to rehabilitation programmes is frequently low - particularly adherence to home exercise programmes. Home exercise programmes have been identified as complementary to clinic-based physical therapy in an orthopaedic setting. Barriers to patient adherence have previously been identified within the literature. Low self-efficacy is a barrier to adherence that clinicians have the ability to have an impact on and improve. The theory of self-efficacy is defined as a person's confidence in their ability to perform a task. This theory examines the ability of a person to change through exerting control over inner processes of goal setting, self-monitoring, feedback, problem solving and self-evaluation. If clinicians are able to identify patients with low self-efficacy prior to the prescription of a home exercise programme, adjustments to individualized care can be implemented. Individualized care based on improving self-efficacy for home exercise programmes may improve patient adherence to these programmes. The purpose of this article was to use the theory of self-efficacy to direct clinicians in providing individualized programmes to patients with varying levels of self-efficacy. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Endogeneity, Time-Varying Coefficients, and Incorrect vs. Correct Ways of Specifying the Error Terms of Econometric Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Using the net effect of all relevant regressors omitted from a model to form its error term is incorrect because the coefficients and error term of such a model are non-unique. Non-unique coefficients cannot possess consistent estimators. Uniqueness can be achieved if; instead; one uses certain “sufficient sets” of (relevant regressors omitted from each model to represent the error term. In this case; the unique coefficient on any non-constant regressor takes the form of the sum of a bias-free component and omitted-regressor biases. Measurement-error bias can also be incorporated into this sum. We show that if our procedures are followed; accurate estimation of bias-free components is possible.

  16. Comparison of physically based constitutive models characterizing armor steel over wide temperature and strain rate ranges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Zejian; Huang, Fenglei

    2012-01-01

    Both descriptive and predictive capabilities of five physically based constitutive models (PB, NNL, ZA, VA, and RK) are investigated and compared systematically, in characterizing plastic behavior of the 603 steel at temperatures ranging from 288 to 873 K, and strain rates ranging from 0.001 to 4500 s −1 . Determination of the constitutive parameters is introduced in detail for each model. Validities of the established models are checked by strain rate jump tests performed under different loading conditions. The results show that the RK and NNL models have better performance in the description of material behavior, especially the work-hardening effect, while the PB and VA models predict better. The inconsistency that is observed between the capabilities of description and prediction of the models indicates the existence of the minimum number of required fitting data, reflecting the degree of a model's requirement for basic data in parameter calibration. It is also found that the description capability of a model is dependent to a large extent on both its form and the number of its constitutive parameters, while the precision of prediction relies largely on the performance of description. In the selection of constitutive models, the experimental data and the constitutive models should be considered synthetically to obtain a better efficiency in material behavior characterization

  17. Using Kalman filtering to predict time-varying parameters in a model predicting baroreflex regulation during head-up tilt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matzuka, Brett; Mehlsen, Jesper; Tran, Hien

    2015-01-01

    are sparse, typical studies only include measurements of heart rate and blood pressure, as a result it is difficult to determine what mechanisms that are impaired. It is known, that blood pressure regulation is mediated by changes in heart rate, vascular resistance, cardiac contractility and a number...... of other factors. Given that numerous factors contribute to changing these quantities it is difficult to devise a physiological model describing how they change in time. One way is to build a model that allows these controlled quantities to change and to compare dynamics between subject groups. To do so...

  18. Modelling altered revenue function based on varying power consumption distribution and electricity tariff charge using data analytics framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainudin, W. N. R. A.; Ramli, N. A.

    2017-09-01

    In 2010, Energy Commission (EC) had introduced Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) to ensure sustainable Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry (MESI), promotes transparent and fair returns, encourage maximum efficiency and maintains policy driven end user tariff. To cater such revolutionary transformation, a sophisticated system to generate policy driven electricity tariff structure is in great need. Hence, this study presents a data analytics framework that generates altered revenue function based on varying power consumption distribution and tariff charge function. For the purpose of this study, the power consumption distribution is being proxy using proportion of household consumption and electricity consumed in KwH and the tariff charge function is being proxy using three-tiered increasing block tariff (IBT). The altered revenue function is useful to give an indication on whether any changes in the power consumption distribution and tariff charges will give positive or negative impact to the economy. The methodology used for this framework begins by defining the revenue to be a function of power consumption distribution and tariff charge function. Then, the proportion of household consumption and tariff charge function is derived within certain interval of electricity power. Any changes in those proportion are conjectured to contribute towards changes in revenue function. Thus, these changes can potentially give an indication on whether the changes in power consumption distribution and tariff charge function are giving positive or negative impact on TNB revenue. Based on the finding of this study, major changes on tariff charge function seems to affect altered revenue function more than power consumption distribution. However, the paper concludes that power consumption distribution and tariff charge function can influence TNB revenue to some great extent.

  19. A wide low-mass binary model for the origin of axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kool, M. de; Heuvel, E.P.J. van den

    1985-01-01

    An accreting binary model has been proposed by recent workers to account for the origin of the axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources. The authors show that the only type of binary system that can produce the observed structural properties, is a relatively wide neutron star binary, in which the companion of the neutron star is a low-mass giant. Binaries of this type are expected to resemble closely the eight brightest galactic bulge X-ray sources as well as the progenitors of the two wide radio pulsar binaries. (U.K.)

  20. Simulated cold bias being improved by using MODIS time-varying albedo in the Tibetan Plateau in WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, X.; Lyu, S.; Zhang, T.; Zhao, L.; Li, Z.; Han, B.; Li, S.; Ma, D.; Chen, H.; Ao, Y.; Luo, S.; Shen, Y.; Guo, J.; Wen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Systematic cold biases exist in the simulation for 2 m air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) when using regional climate models and global atmospheric general circulation models. We updated the albedo in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model lower boundary condition using the Global LAnd Surface Satellite Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer albedo products and demonstrated evident improvement for cold temperature biases in the TP. It is the large overestimation of albedo in winter and spring in the WRF model that resulted in the large cold temperature biases. The overestimated albedo was caused by the simulated precipitation biases and over-parameterization of snow albedo. Furthermore, light-absorbing aerosols can result in a large reduction of albedo in snow and ice cover. The results suggest the necessity of developing snow albedo parameterization using observations in the TP, where snow cover and melting are very different from other low-elevation regions, and the influence of aerosols should be considered as well. In addition to defining snow albedo, our results show an urgent call for improving precipitation simulation in the TP.

  1. Extracting a robust U.S. business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Creal, D.D.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In particular, we

  2. Model versus Military Pilot: A Mixed-Methods Study of Adolescents' Attitudes toward Women in Varied Occupations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Elizabeth A.; Sherman, Aurora M.

    2016-01-01

    Using an experimental methodology, the present study investigated adolescents' attitudes toward media images of women in non-appearance-focused (CEO and military pilot) and appearance-focused occupations (model and actor). One hundred adolescent girls and 76 adolescent boys provided ratings of likability, competence, and similarity to self after…

  3. Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

    2017-12-01

    The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

  4. Effects of spatial and spectral frequencies on wide-field functional imaging (wifi) characterization of preclinical breast cancer models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moy, Austin; Kim, Jae G.; Lee, Eva Y. H. P.; Choi, Bernard

    2010-02-01

    A common strategy to study breast cancer is the use of the preclinical model. These models provide a physiologically relevant and controlled environment in which to study both response to novel treatments and the biology of the cancer. Preclinical models, including the spontaneous tumor model and mammary window chamber model, are very amenable to optical imaging and to this end, we have developed a wide-field functional imaging (WiFI) instrument that is perfectly suited to studying tumor metabolism in preclinical models. WiFI combines two optical imaging modalities, spatial frequency domain imaging (SFDI) and laser speckle imaging (LSI). Our current WiFI imaging protocol consists of multispectral imaging in the near infrared (650-980 nm) spectrum, over a wide (7 cm x 5 cm) field of view. Using SFDI, the spatially-resolved reflectance of sinusoidal patterns projected onto the tissue is assessed, and optical properties of the tissue are determined, which are then used to extract tissue chromophore concentrations in the form of oxy-, deoxy-, and total hemoglobin concentrations, and percentage of lipid and water. In the current study, we employ Monte Carlo simulations of SFDI light propagation in order to characterize the penetration depth of light in both the spontaneous tumor model and mammary window chamber model. Preliminary results suggest that different spatial frequency and wavelength combinations have different penetration depths, suggesting the potential depth sectioning capability of the SFDI component of WiFI.

  5. Finite element modeling for integrated solid-solid PCM-building material with varying phase change temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, D.; Fung, A.S.; Siddiqui, O. [Ryerson Polytechnic Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering

    2008-08-15

    Solid-solid phase change materials (SSPCMs) are used to enhance thermal storage performance and reduce indoor temperature fluctuations in buildings. In this study, a finite element model (FEM) was used to investigate the thermal properties of different types of SSPCMs. An effective heat capacity method was used to develop the model. An integrated PCM-building material was analyzed in relation to temperature and heat flux profiles. Governing equations for the heat transfer process were composed of Navier-Stokes momentum equations; a mass conservation equation; and an energy conservation equation. Effective heat capacity was described as a linear function of the latent heat of fusion on both the heating and cooling processes. Data from the simulation were then compared with an experiment suing drywall, concrete and gypcrete samples. Heat flux across the surfaces and temperatures on the surfaces of the materials were measured. Data were used to validate the finite element model (FEM). Results of the study suggested that heat flux profiles are an effective means of understanding phase change processes. It was concluded that PCMs with lower phase change temperatures lengthened energy releases and improved thermal comfort in the building. 12 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs.

  6. Growth and structure of the World Wide Web: Towards realistic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadić, Bosiljka

    2002-08-01

    We simulate evolution of the World Wide Web from the dynamic rules incorporating growth, bias attachment, and rewiring. We show that the emergent double-hierarchical structure with distinct distributions of out- and in-links is comparable with the observed empirical data when the control parameter (average graph flexibility β) is kept in the range β=3-4. We then explore the Web graph by simulating (a) Web crawling to determine size and depth of connected components, and (b) a random walker that discovers the structure of connected subgraphs with dominant attractor and promoter nodes. A random walker that adapts its move strategy to mimic local node linking preferences is shown to have a short access time to "important" nodes on the Web graph.

  7. Interactions in heated milk model systems with different ratios of nanoparticulated whey protein at varying pH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Guanchen; Jæger, Tanja C.; Nielsen, Søren B.

    2017-01-01

    To better understand the interactions between nanoparticulated whey protein (NWP) and other milk proteins during acidification, milk model systems were diluted to 0.5% protein concentration and adjusted to pH of 6.0-4.5 following homogenisation and heat treatment. The diluted systems with different...... concentrations of NWP (0-0.5%) were characterised in terms of particle size, viscosity, surface charge and hydrophobicity. When pH was adjusted to 5.5, aggregation was initiated at levels of NWP (0.25-0.5%) leading to significant increase in particle size and viscosity. Pure NWP (0.5%) showed largest initial...

  8. A Perspective for Time-Varying Channel Compensation with Model-Based Adaptive Passive Time-Reversal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lussac P. MAIA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Underwater communications mainly rely on acoustic propagation which is strongly affected by frequency-dependent attenuation, shallow water multipath propagation and significant Doppler spread/shift induced by source-receiver-surface motion. Time-reversal based techniques offer a low complexity solution to decrease interferences caused by multipath, but a complete equalization cannot be reached (it saturates when maximize signal to noise ratio and these techniques in conventional form are quite sensible to channel variations along the transmission. Acoustic propagation modeling in high frequency regime can yield physical-based information that is potentially useful to channel compensation methods as the passive time-reversal (pTR, which is often employed in Digital Acoustic Underwater Communications (DAUC systems because of its low computational cost. Aiming to overcome the difficulties of pTR to solve time-variations in underwater channels, it is intended to insert physical knowledge from acoustic propagation modeling in the pTR filtering. Investigation is being done by the authors about the influence of channel physical parameters on propagation of coherent acoustic signals transmitted through shallow water waveguides and received in a vertical line array of sensors. Time-variant approach is used, as required to model high frequency acoustic propagation on realistic scenarios, and applied to a DAUC simulator containing an adaptive passive time-reversal receiver (ApTR. The understanding about the effects of changes in physical features of the channel over the propagation can lead to design ApTR filters which could help to improve the communications system performance. This work presents a short extension and review of the paper 12, which tested Doppler distortion induced by source-surface motion and ApTR compensation for a DAUC system on a simulated time-variant channel, in the scope of model-based equalization. Environmental focusing approach

  9. The Little Engines That Could: Modeling the Performance of World Wide Web Search Engines

    OpenAIRE

    Eric T. Bradlow; David C. Schmittlein

    2000-01-01

    This research examines the ability of six popular Web search engines, individually and collectively, to locate Web pages containing common marketing/management phrases. We propose and validate a model for search engine performance that is able to represent key patterns of coverage and overlap among the engines. The model enables us to estimate the typical additional benefit of using multiple search engines, depending on the particular set of engines being considered. It also provides an estim...

  10. Effect of time-varying tropospheric models on near-regional and regional infrasound propagation as constrained by observational data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Mihan H.; Stump, Brian W.; Hayward, Chris

    2008-06-01

    The Chulwon Seismo-Acoustic Array (CHNAR) is a regional seismo-acoustic array with co-located seismometers and infrasound microphones on the Korean peninsula. Data from forty-two days over the course of a year between October 1999 and August 2000 were analyzed; 2052 infrasound-only arrivals and 23 seismo-acoustic arrivals were observed over the six week study period. A majority of the signals occur during local working hours, hour 0 to hour 9 UT and appear to be the result of cultural activity located within a 250 km radius. Atmospheric modeling is presented for four sample days during the study period, one in each of November, February, April, and August. Local meteorological data sampled at six hour intervals is needed to accurately model the observed arrivals and this data produced highly temporally variable thermal ducts that propagated infrasound signals within 250 km, matching the temporal variation in the observed arrivals. These ducts change dramatically on the order of hours, and meteorological data from the appropriate sampled time frame was necessary to interpret the observed arrivals.

  11. Dynamic RSA: Examining parasympathetic regulatory dynamics via vector-autoregressive modeling of time-varying RSA and heart period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Aaron J; Reeves, Jonathan W; Chi, Cyrus

    2016-07-01

    Expanding on recently published methods, the current study presents an approach to estimating the dynamic, regulatory effect of the parasympathetic nervous system on heart period on a moment-to-moment basis. We estimated second-to-second variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in order to estimate the contemporaneous and time-lagged relationships among RSA, interbeat interval (IBI), and respiration rate via vector autoregression. Moreover, we modeled these relationships at lags of 1 s to 10 s, in order to evaluate the optimal latency for estimating dynamic RSA effects. The IBI (t) on RSA (t-n) regression parameter was extracted from individual models as an operationalization of the regulatory effect of RSA on IBI-referred to as dynamic RSA (dRSA). Dynamic RSA positively correlated with standard averages of heart rate and negatively correlated with standard averages of RSA. We propose that dRSA reflects the active downregulation of heart period by the parasympathetic nervous system and thus represents a novel metric that provides incremental validity in the measurement of autonomic cardiac control-specifically, a method by which parasympathetic regulatory effects can be measured in process. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  12. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Miranda L.; Huang, Li-Shan; Cox, Christopher; Strain, J.J.; Myers, Gary J.; Bonham, Maxine P.; Shamlaye, Conrad F.; Stokes-Riner, Abbie; Wallace, Julie M.W.; Duffy, Emeir M.; Clarkson, Thomas W.; Davidson, Philip W.

    2011-01-01

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy as a case

  13. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynch, Miranda L., E-mail: Miranda_Lynch@urmc.rochester.edu [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Huang, Li-Shan [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Cox, Christopher [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States); Strain, J.J. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Myers, Gary J. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Bonham, Maxine P. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Shamlaye, Conrad F. [Ministry of Health, Republic of Seychelles (Seychelles); Stokes-Riner, Abbie [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Wallace, Julie M.W.; Duffy, Emeir M. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Clarkson, Thomas W.; Davidson, Philip W. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy

  14. Evaluating a biomass resource: The TVA region-wide biomass resource assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, M.; Graham, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    Wood is an alterative fuel for electric power generation at coal-fired plants in the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) region. Short rotation wood energy crops (SRWC) could provide a source of this woody biomass. However, the economic and supply structures of SRWC markets have not been established. Establishing the likely price and supply of SRWC biomass in a region is a complex task because biomass is not an established commodity as are oil, natural gas and coal. In this study we project the cost and supply of short-rotation woody biomass for the TVA region -- a 276 county area that includes all of Tennessee and portions of 10 contiguous states in the southeastern United States. Projected prices and quantities of SRWC are assumed to be a function of the amount and quality of crop and pasture land available in a region. expected SRWC yields and production costs on differing soils and land types, and the profit that could be obtained from current conventional crop production on these same lands. Results include the supply curve of SRWC biomass that is projected to be available from the entire region, the amount and location of crop and pasture land that would be used, and the conventional agricultural crops that would be displaced as a function of SRWC production. Finally, we show the results of sensitivity analysis on the projected cost and supply of SRWC biomass. In particular, we examine the separate impacts of varying SRWC production yields

  15. Evaluating a biomass resource: The TVA region-wide biomass resource assessment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, M.; Graham, R.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The economic and supply structures of short rotation woody crop (SRWC) markets have not been established. Establishing the likely price and supply of SRWC biomass in a region is a complex task because biomass is not an established commodity as are oil, natural gas and coal. In this study we project the cost and supply of short-rotation woody biomass for the TVA region -- a 276 county area that includes all of Tennessee and portions of 10 contiguous states in the southeastern United States. Projected prices and quantities of SRWC are assumed to be a function of the amount and quality of crop and pasture land available in a region, expected SRWC yields and production costs on differing soils and land types, and the profit that could be obtained from current conventional crop production on these same lands. Results include the supply curve of SRWC biomass that is projected to be available from the entire region, the amount and location of crop and pasture land that would be used, and the conventional agricultural crops that would be displaced as a function of SRWC production. Finally, we show the results of sensitivity analysis on the projected cost and supply of SRWC biomass. In particular, we examine the separate impacts of varying SRWC production yields.

  16. Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

  17. Physical models for the hypothesized F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu infrared to X-ray continuum of quasi-stellar objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, W.A.

    1991-01-01

    Models for producing the large ultraviolet bump, low-energy X-rays and the hypothesized F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu IR to X-ray continua of QSOs are investigated. Thermal Comptonization in a hot corona of an accretion disk appears to offer the best potential. However, under the energy input conditions in QSOs a corona will reach T above 100 million K. It must be optically thin, so as to not Comptonize the accretion disk ultraviolet emission to an unacceptable extent. However, it then cannot Comptonize a low-frequency source to an F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu continuum extending from the infrared to X-rays. An inner corona, possibly optically thick because of n varies as the sq rt of r density increase, is required for the F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu continuum, but it cannot therefore cover the UV-emitting accretion disk. However, then a Wien peak associated with this inner volume may be implied at 10 keV, contrary to observations. 42 refs

  18. A Lightweight Modeling System for Region-Wide Monitoring of Hydrologic Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, D.; Hernandez, F.; Wang, R.; Liang, Y.; Teng, W. L.; Liang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Transportation infrastructure is subject to multiple hydrology-related threats, including floods, bridge scouring, landslides, and icing. While modern land-surface models could potentially assist in forecast and response operations, applying these models is challenging, because of the extensiveness of the infrastructure that the government transportation agencies are responsible for. Constructing detailed models for every point of interest and running them in real time would require significant efforts from a team of modeling professionals and considerable computational resources. To address this challenge, we introduce the Hydrologic Disaster Forecast and Response (HDFR) system, a lightweight software framework (under development) that streamlines the process of acquiring real-time and forecast data, inputting it into hydrologic models, and translating the results into concrete actionable information for field-team deployment. HDFR integrates a series of data, modeling, and severity modules behind a unified GIS graphical user interface. The latter interface allows non-expert users to easily execute complex workflows, ranging from forcing information acquisition to severity level computations at specific locations. The HDFR allows the performance of these monitoring tasks without the need of a supercomputer-grade infrastructure. Currently, the HDFR uses a regression algorithm as a proxy for physically-based models, to estimate return periods of variables of interest for watersheds of concern, based on key forcing and state variables (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture). This method only requires the execution of land-surface simulations during an offline training phase; however, the HDFR also features a hierarchical multi-scale modeling strategy for improved forecast precision. This approach minimizes the number of models runs to those for selected areas and resolutions, depending on observed conditions. Several prototype versions of the HDFR built on GRASS GIS

  19. Neurofitter: a parameter tuning package for a wide range of electrophysiological neuron models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner Van Geit

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The increase in available computational power and the higher quality of experimental recordings have turned the tuning of neuron model parameters into a problem that can be solved by automatic global optimization algorithms. Neurofitter is a software tool that interfaces existing neural simulation software and sophisticated optimization algorithms with a new way to compute the error measure. This error measure represents how well a given parameter set is able to reproduce the experimental data. It is based on the phase-plane trajectory density method, which is insensitive to small phase differences between model and data. Neurofitter enables the effortless combination of many different time-dependent data traces into the error measure, allowing the neuroscientist to focus on what are the seminal properties of the model. We show results obtained by applying Neurofitter to a simple single compartmental model and a complex multi-compartmental Purkinje cell (PC model. These examples show that the method is able to solve a variety of tuning problems and demonstrate details of its practical application.

  20. Development of a Terrestrial Modeling System: The China-wide Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Q.; Dai, Y.; Zheng, X.; Ye, A.; Chen, Z.; Shangguang, W.

    2010-12-01

    A terrestrial modeling system (TMS) is being developed at Beijing Normal University. The purposes of TMS are (1) to provide a land surface parameterization scheme fully capable of being coupled with and climate and Earth system models of different scales; (2) to provide a standalone platform for simulation and prediction of land surface processes; and (3) to provide a platform for studying human-Earth system interactions. This system will build on and extend existing capabilities at BNU, including the Common Land Model (CoLM) system, high-resolution atmospheric forcing data sets, high-resolution soil and vegetation data sets, and high-performance computing facilities and software. This presentation describes the system design and demonstrates the initial capabilities of TMS in simulating water and energy fluxes over the continental China for a multi-year period.

  1. A novel electro-thermal model for wide bandgap semiconductor based devices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sintamarean, Nicolae Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    This paper propose a novel Electro-Thermal Model for the new generation of power electronics WBG-devices (by considering the SiC MOSFET-CMF20120D from CREE), which is able to estimate the device junction and case temperature. The Device-Model estimates the voltage drop and the switching energies...... by considering the device current, the off-state blocking voltage and junction temperature variation. Moreover, the proposed Thermal-Model is able to consider the thermal coupling within the MOSFET and its freewheeling diode, integrated into the same package, and the influence of the ambient temperature...... variation. The importance of temperature loop feedback in the estimation accuracy of device junction and case temperature is studied. Furthermore, the Safe Operating Area (SOA) of the SiC MOSFET is determined for 2L-VSI applications which are using sinusoidal PWM. Thus, by considering the heatsink thermal...

  2. An Ontology of Quality Initiatives and a Model for Decentralized, Collaborative Quality Management on the (Semantic) World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This editorial provides a model of how quality initiatives concerned with health information on the World Wide Web may in the future interact with each other. This vision fits into the evolving "Semantic Web" architecture - ie, the prospective that the World Wide Web may evolve from a mess of unstructured, human-readable information sources into a global knowledge base with an additional layer providing richer and more meaningful relationships between resources. One first prerequisite for forming such a "Semantic Web" or "web of trust" among the players active in quality management of health information is that these initiatives make statements about themselves and about each other in a machine-processable language. I present a concrete model on how this collaboration could look, and provide some recommendations on what the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other policy makers in this framework could be. PMID:11772549

  3. Impact Response Comparison Between Parametric Human Models and Postmortem Human Subjects with a Wide Range of Obesity Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Wang, Yulong; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Forman, Jason; Hu, Jingwen

    2017-10-01

    Field data analyses have shown that obesity significantly increases the occupant injury risks in motor vehicle crashes, but the injury assessment tools for people with obesity are largely lacking. The objectives of this study were to use a mesh morphing method to rapidly generate parametric finite element models with a wide range of obesity levels and to evaluate their biofidelity against impact tests using postmortem human subjects (PMHS). Frontal crash tests using three PMHS seated in a vehicle rear seat compartment with body mass index (BMI) from 24 to 40 kg/m 2 were selected. To develop the human models matching the PMHS geometry, statistical models of external body shape, rib cage, pelvis, and femur were applied to predict the target geometry using age, sex, stature, and BMI. A mesh morphing method based on radial basis functions was used to rapidly morph a baseline human model into the target geometry. The model-predicted body excursions and injury measures were compared to the PMHS tests. Comparisons of occupant kinematics and injury measures between the tests and simulations showed reasonable correlations across the wide range of BMI levels. The parametric human models have the capability to account for the obesity effects on the occupant impact responses and injury risks. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  4. Mass balance-based plant-wide wastewater treatment plant models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2006-07-03

    Jul 3, 2006 ... state activated sludge, aerobic digestion and anaerobic digestion models provide internally consistent ... BNR biological nutrient removal. C carbon. oC degrees Centigrade ... of influent wastewater inorganic suspended solids (ISS) through ..... the COD and the %N can be replaced by the organic N (OrgN).

  5. Developing land market data for use in a state wide land use and transportation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-10-01

    This working paper describes the process used to develop land market variables : for use by TRANUS in the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration : Program (TLUMIP). One of the key variables developed during this phase of the : project is the m...

  6. European-wide simulations of croplands using an improved terrestrial biosphere model: Phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-03-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE), for vegetation productivity, water balance, and soil carbon dynamics, and the generic crop model Simulateur Multidisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard (STICS), for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, and harvest. The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated leaf area index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favorably with remote-sensing observations (correlation doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual net primary productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30 year mean simulated and reported yields are large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced toward the observed variability (≈10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phenologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to spring crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest to account for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  7. Prowess – A Software Model for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Although predictions spell out optimistic outcomes in reasonable integration times, these studies were based purely on analytical assumptions, without accounting for limiting systematics. A software model for OWFA has been developed with a view to understanding the instrument-induced systematics, by describing a ...

  8. Varied behavioral responses induced by morphine in the tree shrew: a possible model for human opiate addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang eShen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Tree shrews represent a suitable animal model to study the pathogenesis of human diseases as they are phylogenetically close to primates and have a well-developed central nervous system that possesses many homologies with primates. Therefore, in our study, we investigated whether tree shrews can be used to explore the addictive behaviors induced by morphine. Firstly, to investigate the psychoactive effect of morphine on tree shrews’ behavior, the number of jumping and shuttling, which represent the vertical and horizontal locomotor activity respectively, was examined following the injection of different dosage of morphine. Our results showed intramuscular (IM injection of morphine (5 or 10 mg/kg significantly increased the locomotor activity of tree shrews 30-60 min post-injection. Then, using the conditioned place preference/aversion (CPP/CPA paradigm, we found morphine-conditioned tree shrews exhibited place preference in the morphine-paired chamber on the test day. In addition, naloxone-precipitated withdrawal induced place aversion in the chronic morphine-dependent tree shrews. We evaluated the craving for morphine drinking by assessing the break point that reflects the maximum effort animals will expend to get the drug. Our data showed the break point was significantly increased when compared to the baseline on the 1st, 7th and 14th day after the abstinence. Moreover, in the intravenous morphine self-administration experiment, tree shrews conditioned with morphine responded on the active lever significantly more frequently than on the inactive lever after training. These results suggest that tree shrew may be a potential candidate for study the addictive behaviors and the underling neurological mechanisms.

  9. Nonlinear radiation transport problems involving widely varying mean free paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapline, G. Jr.; Wood, L.

    1976-01-01

    In this report a method is given for modifying the Monte-Carlo approach so that one can accurately treat problems that involve both large and small mean free paths. This method purports to offer the advantages of the general Monte Carlo technique as far as relatively great accuracy of simulation of microscopic physical phenomena is concerned, and the advantage of a diffusion theory approach as far as decent time steps in thick problems are concerned; it does suffer from something of the statistical fluctuation problems of the Monte Carlo, although in analytically attenuated and modified form

  10. Model-based plant-wide optimization of large-scale lignocellulosic bioethanol plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prunescu, Remus Mihail; Blanke, Mogens; Jakobsen, Jon Geest

    2017-01-01

    Second generation biorefineries transform lignocellulosic biomass into chemicals with higher added value following a conversion mechanism that consists of: pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation and purification. The objective of this study is to identify the optimal operational point...... with respect to maximum economic profit of a large scale biorefinery plant using a systematic model-based plantwide optimization methodology. The following key process parameters are identified as decision variables: pretreatment temperature, enzyme dosage in enzymatic hydrolysis, and yeast loading per batch...... in fermentation. The plant is treated in an integrated manner taking into account the interactions and trade-offs between the conversion steps. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis follows at the optimal solution considering both model and feed parameters. It is found that the optimal point is more sensitive...

  11. FHSA-SED: Two-Locus Model Detection for Genome-Wide Association Study with Harmony Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouheng Tuo

    Full Text Available Two-locus model is a typical significant disease model to be identified in genome-wide association study (GWAS. Due to intensive computational burden and diversity of disease models, existing methods have drawbacks on low detection power, high computation cost, and preference for some types of disease models.In this study, two scoring functions (Bayesian network based K2-score and Gini-score are used for characterizing two SNP locus as a candidate model, the two criteria are adopted simultaneously for improving identification power and tackling the preference problem to disease models. Harmony search algorithm (HSA is improved for quickly finding the most likely candidate models among all two-locus models, in which a local search algorithm with two-dimensional tabu table is presented to avoid repeatedly evaluating some disease models that have strong marginal effect. Finally G-test statistic is used to further test the candidate models.We investigate our method named FHSA-SED on 82 simulated datasets and a real AMD dataset, and compare it with two typical methods (MACOED and CSE which have been developed recently based on swarm intelligent search algorithm. The results of simulation experiments indicate that our method outperforms the two compared algorithms in terms of detection power, computation time, evaluation times, sensitivity (TPR, specificity (SPC, positive predictive value (PPV and accuracy (ACC. Our method has identified two SNPs (rs3775652 and rs10511467 that may be also associated with disease in AMD dataset.

  12. Local Genealogies in a Linear Mixed Model for Genome-wide Association Mapping in Complex Pedigreed Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sahana, Goutam; Mailund, Thomas; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2011-01-01

    be extended to incorporate other effects in a straightforward and rigorous fashion. Here, we present a complementary approach, called ‘GENMIX (genealogy based mixed model)’ which combines advantages from two powerful GWAS methods: genealogy-based haplotype grouping and MMA. Subjects and Methods: We validated......Introduction: The state-of-the-art for dealing with multiple levels of relationship among the samples in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is unified mixed model analysis (MMA). This approach is very flexible, can be applied to both family-based and population-based samples, and can...

  13. Convergent Time-Varying Regression Models for Data Streams: Tracking Concept Drift by the Recursive Parzen-Based Generalized Regression Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Piotr; Jaworski, Maciej; Rutkowski, Leszek

    2018-03-01

    One of the greatest challenges in data mining is related to processing and analysis of massive data streams. Contrary to traditional static data mining problems, data streams require that each element is processed only once, the amount of allocated memory is constant and the models incorporate changes of investigated streams. A vast majority of available methods have been developed for data stream classification and only a few of them attempted to solve regression problems, using various heuristic approaches. In this paper, we develop mathematically justified regression models working in a time-varying environment. More specifically, we study incremental versions of generalized regression neural networks, called IGRNNs, and we prove their tracking properties - weak (in probability) and strong (with probability one) convergence assuming various concept drift scenarios. First, we present the IGRNNs, based on the Parzen kernels, for modeling stationary systems under nonstationary noise. Next, we extend our approach to modeling time-varying systems under nonstationary noise. We present several types of concept drifts to be handled by our approach in such a way that weak and strong convergence holds under certain conditions. Finally, in the series of simulations, we compare our method with commonly used heuristic approaches, based on forgetting mechanism or sliding windows, to deal with concept drift. Finally, we apply our concept in a real life scenario solving the problem of currency exchange rates prediction.

  14. Diagnosis of ulcerative colitis before onset of inflammation by multivariate modeling of genome-wide gene expression data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørgen; Gerds, Thomas A; Seidelin, Jakob B

    2009-01-01

    Background: Endoscopically obtained mucosal biopsies play an important role in the differential diagnosis between ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), but in some cases where neither macroscopic nor microscopic signs of inflammation are present the biopsies provide only inconclusive...... biopsies from 78 patients were included. A diagnostic model was derived with the random forest method based on 71 biopsies from 60 patients. The model-internal out-of-bag performance measure yielded perfect classification. Furthermore, the model was validated in independent 18 noninflamed biopsies from 18...... of random forest modeling of genome-wide gene expression data for distinguishing quiescent and active UC colonic mucosa versus control and CD colonic mucosa.(Inflamm Bowel Dis 2009)....

  15. Honoring Choices Minnesota: preliminary data from a community-wide advance care planning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kent S; Kottke, Thomas E; Schettle, Sue

    2014-12-01

    Advance care planning (ACP) increases the likelihood that individuals who are dying receive the care that they prefer. It also reduces depression and anxiety in family members and increases family satisfaction with the process of care. Honoring Choices Minnesota is an ACP program based on the Respecting Choices model of La Crosse, Wisconsin. The objective of this report is to describe the process, which began in 2008, of implementing Honoring Choices Minnesota in a large, diverse metropolitan area. All eight large healthcare systems in the metropolitan area agreed to participate in the project, and as of April 30, 2013, the proportion of hospitalized individuals 65 and older with advance care directives in the electronic medical record was 12.1% to 65.6%. The proportion of outpatients aged 65 and older was 11.6% to 31.7%. Organizations that had sponsored recruitment initiatives had the highest proportions of records containing healthcare directives. It was concluded that it is possible to reduce redundancy by recruiting all healthcare systems in a metropolitan area to endorse the same ACP model, although significantly increasing the proportion of individuals with a healthcare directive in their medical record requires a campaign with recruitment of organizations and individuals. © 2014 The Authors.The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  16. Development of repository-wide radionuclide transport model considering the effects of multiple sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatanaka, Koichiro; Watari, Shingo; Ijiri, Yuji

    1999-11-01

    Safety assessment of the geological isolation system according to the groundwater scenario has traditionally been conducted based on the signal canister configuration and then the safety of total system has been evaluated based on the dose rates which were obtained by multiplying the migration rates released from the engineered barrier and/or the natural barrier by dose conversion factors and total number of canisters disposed in the repository. The dose conversion factors can be obtained from the biosphere analysis. In this study, we focused on the effect of multiple sources due to the disposal of canisters at different positions in the repository. By taking the effect of multiple sources into consideration, concentration interference in the repository region is possible to take place. Therefore, radionuclide transport model/code considering the effect of concentration interference due to the multiple sources was developed to make assessments of the effect quantitatively. The newly developed model/code was verified through the comparison analysis with the existing radionuclide transport analysis code used in the second progress report. In addition, the effect of the concentration interference was evaluated by setting a simple problem using the newly developed analysis code. This results shows that the maximum park value of the migration rates from the repository was about two orders of magnitude lower than that based on single canister configuration. Since the analysis code was developed by assuming that all canisters disposed of along the one-dimensional groundwater flow contribute to the concentration interference in the repository region, the assumption should be verified by conducting two or three-dimensional analysis considering heterogeneous geological structure as a future work. (author)

  17. Organic carbon recovery modeling for a rotating belt filter and its impact assessment on a plant-wide scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Behera, Chitta Ranjan; Santoro, Domenico; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we perform a systematic plant-wide assessment of the organic carbon recovery concept on wastewater treatment plants by an advanced cellulose recovery enabling technology called rotating belt filter (RBF). To this end, first, an empirical model is developed to describe organic carbon...... recovery by the RBF, which is then used for the plant-wide performance evaluation to further understand the impact of organic carbon recovery by framing four different scenarios. The key features of the scenario analysis are: (i) an RBF operating with thick mat increases methane production (around 10...... %) and brings down aeration energy demand (by 8 %) compared to the primary clarifier (PC) and, (ii) the sludge retention time (SRT) of the activated sludge (AS) tank increases by 55 % when an RBF runs with thick mat and therefore promotes higher nitrification rate, (iii) organic carbon recovery by the RBF does...

  18. Development of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing rates for use in air quality and chemical transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Alapaty, Kiran; Sakradzija, Mirjana

    2008-06-01

    Asymmetrical convective non-local scheme (CON) with varying upward mixing rates is developed for simulation of vertical turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer in air quality and chemical transport models. The upward mixing rate form the surface layer is parameterized using the sensible heat flux and the friction and convective velocities. Upward mixing rates varying with height are scaled with an amount of turbulent kinetic energy in layer, while the downward mixing rates are derived from mass conservation. This scheme provides a less rapid mass transport out of surface layer into other layers than other asymmetrical convective mixing schemes. In this paper, we studied the performance of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer and its impact on the concentration of pollutants calculated with chemical and air-quality models. This scheme was additionally compared versus a local eddy-diffusivity scheme (KSC). Simulated concentrations of NO(2) and the nitrate wet deposition by the CON scheme are closer to the observations when compared to those obtained from using the KSC scheme. Concentrations calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme (of the order of 15-20%). Nitrate wet deposition calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme. To examine the performance of the scheme, simulated and measured concentrations of a pollutant (NO(2)) and nitrate wet deposition was compared for the year 2002. The comparison was made for the whole domain used in simulations performed by the chemical European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Unified model (version UNI-ACID, rv2.0) where schemes were incorporated.

  19. LXCat: A web-based, community-wide project on data for modeling low temperature plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitchford, L. C.

    2014-10-01

    LXCat is an open-access website (www.lxcat.net) for exchanging data related to ion and electron transport and scattering cross sections in cold, neutral gases. At present 30 people from 12 countries have contributed to the LXCat project. This presentation will focus on the status of the data available for electrons on LXCat. These data are primarily in the form of ``complete'' sets of cross sections, compiled or calculated by different contributors, covering a range of energies from thermal up to about 1 keV. The cross section data can be used directly in Monte Carlo simulations and can also be used as input to Boltzmann equation solvers. Solution of the homogeneous, steady-state Boltzmann equation yields electron energy distribution functions (edf) as a function of reduced electric field strength, E/N, integrals over which yield electron transport and rate coefficients. The transport and rate coefficient data are required input for fluid models of low temperature plasmas. Evaluation of the cross section data sets available on LXCat is a key issue. To this end, the LXCat team has been making systematic intercomparisons of cross section data and comparisons of calculated and measured transport and rate coefficients. Our evaluations have been reported previously for noble gases and for common atmospheric gases. The LXCat team is now evaluating data for more complex molecules.

  20. Modeling and Implementation of Omnidirectional Soccer Robot with Wide Vision Scope Applied in Robocup-MSL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Taheri

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to design and implement a middle size soccer robot to conform RoboCup MSL league. First, according to the rules of RoboCup, we design the middle size soccer robot, The proposed autonomous soccer robot consists of the mechanical platform, motion control module, omni-directional vision module, front vision module, image processing and recognition module, investigated target object positioning and real coordinate reconstruction, robot path planning, competition strategies, and obstacle avoidance. And this soccer robot equips the laptop computer system and interface circuits to make decisions. In fact, the omnidirectional vision sensor of the vision system deals with the image processing and positioning for obstacle avoidance and
    target tracking. The boundary-following algorithm (BFA is applied to find the important features of the field. We utilize the sensor data fusion method in the control system parameters, self localization and world modeling. A vision-based self-localization and the conventional odometry
    systems are fused for robust selflocalization. The localization algorithm includes filtering, sharing and integration of the data for different types of objects recognized in the environment. In the control strategies, we present three state modes, which include the Attack Strategy, Defense Strategy and Intercept Strategy. The methods have been tested in the many Robocup competition field middle size robots.

  1. Models and experimental results from the wide aperture Nb-Ti magnets for the LHC upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Kirby, G.; Bajko, M.; Charrondiere, M.; Bourcey, N.; Datskov, V.I.; Fessia, P.; Feuvrier, J.; Galbraith, P.; Tabares, A. Garcia; Garcia-Perez, J.; Granieri, P.; Hagen, P.; Lorin, C.; Perez, J.C.; Russenschuck, S.; Sahner, T.; Segreti, M.; Todesco, E.; Willering, G.

    2013-01-01

    MQXC is a Nb-Ti quadrupole designed to meet the accelerator quality requirements needed for the phase-1 LHC upgrade, now superseded by the high luminosity upgrade foreseen in 2021. The 2-m-long model magnet was tested at room temperature and 1.9 K. The technology developed for this magnet is relevant for other magnets currently under development for the high-luminosity upgrade, namely D1 (at KEK) and the large aperture twin quadrupole Q4 (at CEA). In this paper we present MQXC test results, some of the specialized heat extraction features, spot heaters, temperature sensor mounting and voltage tap development for the special open cable insulation. We look at some problem solving with noisy signals, give an overview of electrical testing, look at how we calculate the coil resistance during at quench and show that the heaters are not working We describe the quench signals and its timing, the development of the quench heaters and give an explanation of an Excel quench calculation and its comparison including the ...

  2. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  3. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  4. SoftWAXS: a computational tool for modeling wide-angle X-ray solution scattering from biomolecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep; Park, Sanghyun; Makowski, Lee

    2009-10-01

    This paper describes a computational approach to estimating wide-angle X-ray solution scattering (WAXS) from proteins, which has been implemented in a computer program called SoftWAXS. The accuracy and efficiency of SoftWAXS are analyzed for analytically solvable model problems as well as for proteins. Key features of the approach include a numerical procedure for performing the required spherical averaging and explicit representation of the solute-solvent boundary and the surface of the hydration layer. These features allow the Fourier transform of the excluded volume and hydration layer to be computed directly and with high accuracy. This approach will allow future investigation of different treatments of the electron density in the hydration shell. Numerical results illustrate the differences between this approach to modeling the excluded volume and a widely used model that treats the excluded-volume function as a sum of Gaussians representing the individual atomic excluded volumes. Comparison of the results obtained here with those from explicit-solvent molecular dynamics clarifies shortcomings inherent to the representation of solvent as a time-averaged electron-density profile. In addition, an assessment is made of how the calculated scattering patterns depend on input parameters such as the solute-atom radii, the width of the hydration shell and the hydration-layer contrast. These results suggest that obtaining predictive calculations of high-resolution WAXS patterns may require sophisticated treatments of solvent.

  5. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) as a Model Organism to Investigate the Effects of Roads on Wide-Ranging Carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litvaitis, John A; Reed, Gregory C; Carroll, Rory P; Litvaitis, Marian K; Tash, Jeffrey; Mahard, Tyler; Broman, Derek J A; Callahan, Catherine; Ellingwood, Mark

    2015-06-01

    We are using bobcats (Lynx rufus) as a model organism to examine how roads affect the abundance, distribution, and genetic structure of a wide-ranging carnivore. First, we compared the distribution of bobcat-vehicle collisions to road density and then estimated collision probabilities for specific landscapes using a moving window with road-specific traffic volume. Next, we obtained incidental observations of bobcats from the public, camera-trap detections, and locations of bobcats equipped with GPS collars to examine habitat selection. These data were used to generate a cost-surface map to investigate potential barrier effects of roads. Finally, we have begun an examination of genetic structure of bobcat populations in relation to major road networks. Distribution of vehicle-killed bobcats was correlated with road density, especially state and interstate highways. Collision models suggested that some regions may function as demographic sinks. Simulated movements in the context of the cost-surface map indicated that some major roads may be barriers. These patterns were supported by the genetic structure of bobcats. The sharpest divisions among genetically distinct demes occurred along natural barriers (mountains and large lakes) and in road-dense regions. In conclusion, our study has demonstrated the utility of using bobcats as a model organism to understand the variety of threats that roads pose to a wide-ranging species. Bobcats may also be useful as one of a group of focal species while developing approaches to maintain existing connectivity or mitigate the negative effects of roads.

  6. [The effect of betahistine on histological changes in rabbit brain in model of whole body wide-frequency vibration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimkus, Iu Iu; Sapegin, I D

    2013-01-01

    In acute experiments in conscious rabbits was studied protective action of selective blocker of histamine H3-receptor betahistine (2mg/kg i/v) against histological changes in precentral and postcentral gyrus, as well as in temporal lobe of cerebral cortex, thalamus, hypothalamus, and cerebellum, arising in case of modeling of whole body wide-frequency vibration. Betahistine attenuates edematous and degenerative changes in neurons and reciprocal glial reaction, caused by vibration, but does not eliminate edema in perivascular spaces. This effect may be related to the improvement of blood supply as a result of of vasodilatory action and decrease of oxygen consumption via vestibuloprotective effect.

  7. Endovascular treatment of wide-necked aneurysms using stents combined with electrolytic detachable coils in a canine model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jianmin; Zhang Xin; Zhou Xiaoping; Hong Bo; Xu Yi; Huang Qinghai; Zhang Long; She Jiagui; Zhao Rui

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To assess hemodynamics and histology of the aneurysms by treating experimental wide-necked aneurysms endovascularly with a combination of stents and electrolytic detachable coils. Methods: An experimental model was surgically constructed in the necks of six canines for simulating intracranial wide-necked aneurysms. Balloon-expandable metal stents were positioned across the aneurysms in bilateral carotid arteries of six canines with additional intraaneurysmal placement of detachable microcoils in only unilateral carotid artery of each canine. Sonography and angiography were performed in different stages and histologic examinations were achieved finally. Results: Stent placement was successful in all six canines. Aneurysms treated with only stents placement showed no significant thrombus formation with slow growing of neointima over the neck of the aneurysm. Thrombosis occurred in the aneurysms treated with stents and coils in a short time and neointima covered the neck of the aneurysms completely. Conclusions: Endovascular treatment of wide-necked aneurysms using stents combined with electrolytic detachable coils may prevent re-rupture of the aneurysms and promote neointima formation over the neck of the aneurysms. (authors)

  8. New Vary-Chap Profile of the Topside Ionosphere Electron Density Distribution for use with the IRI Model and the GIRO Real-Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsumei, Patrick; Reinisch, Bodo W.; Huang, Xueqin; Bilitza, Dieter

    2012-01-01

    A new Vary-Chap function is introduced for the empirical modeling of the electron density N(h) profile in the topside ionosphere that uses a shape function S(h) in the generalized Chapman function. The Vary-Chap profile extends the bottomside profile that is specified by the IRI model or measured by the Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory (GIRO) to the altitude of the ISIS-2 satellite. Some 80,000 topside profiles, measured by the topside sounder on the ISIS-2 satellite were analyzed, and the shape function S(h) was calculated for each profile. A parameterized function S*(h), composed of two sub-functions S1(h) and S2(h), is fitted to the measured S(h) profile using three free parameters. At altitudes just above the F2 layer peak height hmF2, the shape function S1 controls S(h), and at greater altitudes S2 controls S(h). The height of the intersection of S1 and S2 is defined as the transition height h(sub T) indicating the transition from an O(+) to an H(+)-dominated profile shape. The observed transition heights range from approx.500 km to 800 km.

  9. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Miranda L; Huang, Li-Shan; Cox, Christopher; Strain, J J; Myers, Gary J; Bonham, Maxine P; Shamlaye, Conrad F; Stokes-Riner, Abbie; Wallace, Julie M W; Duffy, Emeir M; Clarkson, Thomas W; Davidson, Philip W

    2011-01-01

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy as a case

  10. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-03-01

    Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Crustal Deformation In the Northwestern Margin of the South China Sea: Results From Wide-angle Seismic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H.; Klingelhoefer, F.

    2017-12-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) has undergone episodic spreading during the Cenozoic Era. The long-term extension has shaped the continental margins of the SCS, leading to a progressive breakup of the lithosphere. Separated blocks and rift troughs, as controlled by tectonic stretching, contains key information about the deforming mechanism of the crust. In this work, we present a P-wave velocity model of a wide-angle seismic profile OBS2013-1 which passes through the NW margin of the SCS. Modeling of 25 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) data revealed a detailed crustal structure and shallow complexities along the profile (Figure 1). The crust thins symmetrically across the Xisha Trough, from more than 20 km on flanks to 10 km in the central valley where the sediments thickens over 5 km; A volcano is situated on top of the centre basement high where the Moho drops slightly. At the distal margin around the Zhongsha Trough, the upper crust was detached and accordingly made the middle crust exhumed in a narrow area ( 20 km wide). Meanwhile, materials from the lower crust rises asymmetrically, increasing the crustal velocity by 0.3 km/s and may also giving rise to volcanisms along the hanging side. A 40 km wide hyper-stretched crust (with thickness of 5 km) was identified next to the Zhongsha Trough and covered by overflowing magma and post-rift sediments on the top. These observations argue for a depth-related and asymmetrically extension of the crust, including (1) detachment fault controls the deformation of the upper crust, leading to exhumation of the middle crust and asymmetrically rising of the lower crust, (2) The region adjacent to the exhumation region and with highly thinned crust can be considered as extinct OCT due to magma-starved supplying.

  12. The atomic scale structure of CXV carbon: wide-angle x-ray scattering and modeling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawelek, L; Brodka, A; Dore, J C; Honkimaki, V; Burian, A

    2013-11-13

    The disordered structure of commercially available CXV activated carbon produced from finely powdered wood-based carbon has been studied using the wide-angle x-ray scattering technique, molecular dynamics and density functional theory simulations. The x-ray scattering data has been converted to the real space representation in the form of the pair correlation function via the Fourier transform. Geometry optimizations using classical molecular dynamics based on the reactive empirical bond order potential and density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-31g* level have been performed to generate nanoscale models of CXV carbon consistent with the experimental data. The final model of the structure comprises four chain-like and buckled graphitic layers containing a small percentage of four-fold coordinated atoms (sp(3) defects) in each layer. The presence of non-hexagonal rings in the atomic arrangement has been also considered.

  13. Universal dispersion model for characterization of optical thin films over wide spectral range: Application to magnesium fluoride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franta, Daniel; Nečas, David; Giglia, Angelo; Franta, Pavel; Ohlídal, Ivan

    2017-11-01

    Optical characterization of magnesium fluoride thin films is performed in a wide spectral range from far infrared to extreme ultraviolet (0.01-45 eV) utilizing the universal dispersion model. Two film defects, i.e. random roughness of the upper boundaries and defect transition layer at lower boundary are taken into account. An extension of universal dispersion model consisting in expressing the excitonic contributions as linear combinations of Gaussian and truncated Lorentzian terms is introduced. The spectral dependencies of the optical constants are presented in a graphical form and by the complete set of dispersion parameters that allows generating tabulated optical constants with required range and step using a simple utility in the newAD2 software package.

  14. An Improved Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control of Permanent Magnetic Synchronous Motors for a Wide-Speed Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Su

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved continuous-time model predictive control (CTMPC of permanent magnetic synchronous motors (PMSMs for a wide-speed range, including the constant torque region and the flux-weakening (FW region. In the constant torque region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are decoupled without the limitation of DC-link voltage. However, in the FW region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are cross-coupled together with the limitation of DC-link voltage. A nonlinear PMSMs mathematic model in the FW region is presented based on the voltage angle. The solving of the nonlinear mathematic model of PMSMs in FW region will lead to heavy computation load for digital signal processing (DSP. To overcome such a problem, a linearization method of the voltage angle is also proposed to reduce the computation load. The selection of transiting points between the constant torque region and FW regions is researched to improve the performance of the driven system. Compared with the proportional integral (PI controller, the proposed CTMPC has obvious advantages in dealing with systems’ nonlinear constraints and improving system performance by restraining overshoot current under step torque changing. Both simulation and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in achieving good steady-state performance and smooth switching between the constant torque and FW regions.

  15. Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996-Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeul, Vince R; Cole, Charles R; Bergeron, Marcel P; Thorne, Paul D; Wurstner, Signe K

    2001-01-01

    The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty

  16. Isca, v1.0: a framework for the global modelling of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets at varying levels of complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Colyer, Greg; Geen, Ruth; Gerber, Edwin; Jucker, Martin; Maher, Penelope; Paterson, Alexander; Pietschnig, Marianne; Penn, James; Thomson, Stephen I.

    2018-03-01

    Isca is a framework for the idealized modelling of the global circulation of planetary atmospheres at varying levels of complexity and realism. The framework is an outgrowth of models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, USA, designed for Earth's atmosphere, but it may readily be extended into other planetary regimes. Various forcing and radiation options are available, from dry, time invariant, Newtonian thermal relaxation to moist dynamics with radiative transfer. Options are available in the dry thermal relaxation scheme to account for the effects of obliquity and eccentricity (and so seasonality), different atmospheric optical depths and a surface mixed layer. An idealized grey radiation scheme, a two-band scheme, and a multiband scheme are also available, all with simple moist effects and astronomically based solar forcing. At the complex end of the spectrum the framework provides a direct connection to comprehensive atmospheric general circulation models. For Earth modelling, options include an aquaplanet and configurable continental outlines and topography. Continents may be defined by changing albedo, heat capacity, and evaporative parameters and/or by using a simple bucket hydrology model. Oceanic Q fluxes may be added to reproduce specified sea surface temperatures, with arbitrary continental distributions. Planetary atmospheres may be configured by changing planetary size and mass, solar forcing, atmospheric mass, radiation, and other parameters. Examples are given of various Earth configurations as well as a giant planet simulation, a slowly rotating terrestrial planet simulation, and tidally locked and other orbitally resonant exoplanet simulations. The underlying model is written in Fortran and may largely be configured with Python scripts. Python scripts are also used to run the model on different architectures, to archive the output, and for diagnostics, graphics, and post-processing. All of these features are publicly

  17. Model-driven requirements engineering (MDRE) for real-time ultra-wide instantaneous bandwidth signal simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Daniel Y.; Rowe, Neil C.

    2013-05-01

    While conducting a cutting-edge research in a specific domain, we realize that (1) requirements clarity and correctness are crucial to our success [1], (2) hardware is hard to change, most work is in software requirements development, coding and testing [2], (3) requirements are constantly changing, so that configurability, reusability, scalability, adaptability, modularity and testability are important non-functional attributes [3], (4) cross-domain knowledge is necessary for complex systems [4], and (5) if our research is successful, the results could be applied to other domains with similar problems. In this paper, we propose to use model-driven requirements engineering (MDRE) to model and guide our requirements/development, since models are easy to understand, execute, and modify. The domain for our research is Electronic Warfare (EW) real-time ultra-wide instantaneous bandwidth (IBW1) signal simulation. The proposed four MDRE models are (1) Switch-and-Filter architecture, (2) multiple parallel data bit streams alignment, (3) post-ADC and pre-DAC bits re-mapping, and (4) Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) filter bank. This research is unique since the instantaneous bandwidth we are dealing with is in gigahertz range instead of conventional megahertz.

  18. Modeling genome-wide dynamic regulatory network in mouse lungs with influenza infection using high-dimensional ordinary differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shuang; Liu, Zhi-Ping; Qiu, Xing; Wu, Hulin

    2014-01-01

    The immune response to viral infection is regulated by an intricate network of many genes and their products. The reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) using mathematical models from time course gene expression data collected after influenza infection is key to our understanding of the mechanisms involved in controlling influenza infection within a host. A five-step pipeline: detection of temporally differentially expressed genes, clustering genes into co-expressed modules, identification of network structure, parameter estimate refinement, and functional enrichment analysis, is developed for reconstructing high-dimensional dynamic GRNs from genome-wide time course gene expression data. Applying the pipeline to the time course gene expression data from influenza-infected mouse lungs, we have identified 20 distinct temporal expression patterns in the differentially expressed genes and constructed a module-based dynamic network using a linear ODE model. Both intra-module and inter-module annotations and regulatory relationships of our inferred network show some interesting findings and are highly consistent with existing knowledge about the immune response in mice after influenza infection. The proposed method is a computationally efficient, data-driven pipeline bridging experimental data, mathematical modeling, and statistical analysis. The application to the influenza infection data elucidates the potentials of our pipeline in providing valuable insights into systematic modeling of complicated biological processes.

  19. Plant-wide modelling of phosphorus transformations in wastewater treatment systems: Impacts of control and operational strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solon, K; Flores-Alsina, X; Kazadi Mbamba, C; Ikumi, D; Volcke, E I P; Vaneeckhaute, C; Ekama, G; Vanrolleghem, P A; Batstone, D J; Gernaey, K V; Jeppsson, U

    2017-04-15

    The objective of this paper is to report the effects that control/operational strategies may have on plant-wide phosphorus (P) transformations in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). The development of a new set of biological (activated sludge, anaerobic digestion), physico-chemical (aqueous phase, precipitation, mass transfer) process models and model interfaces (between water and sludge line) were required to describe the required tri-phasic (gas, liquid, solid) compound transformations and the close interlinks between the P and the sulfur (S) and iron (Fe) cycles. A modified version of the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) (open loop) is used as test platform upon which three different operational alternatives (A 1 , A 2 , A 3 ) are evaluated. Rigorous sensor and actuator models are also included in order to reproduce realistic control actions. Model-based analysis shows that the combination of an ammonium ( [Formula: see text] ) and total suspended solids (X TSS ) control strategy (A 1 ) better adapts the system to influent dynamics, improves phosphate [Formula: see text] accumulation by phosphorus accumulating organisms (X PAO ) (41%), increases nitrification/denitrification efficiency (18%) and reduces aeration energy (E aeration ) (21%). The addition of iron ( [Formula: see text] ) for chemical P removal (A 2 ) promotes the formation of ferric oxides (X HFO-H , X HFO-L ), phosphate adsorption (X HFO-H,P , X HFO-L,P ), co-precipitation (X HFO-H,P,old , X HFO-L,P,old ) and consequently reduces the P levels in the effluent (from 2.8 to 0.9 g P.m -3 ). This also has an impact on the sludge line, with hydrogen sulfide production ( [Formula: see text] ) reduced (36%) due to iron sulfide (X FeS ) precipitation. As a consequence, there is also a slightly higher energy production (E production ) from biogas. Lastly, the inclusion of a stripping and crystallization unit (A 3 ) for P recovery reduces the quantity of P in the anaerobic digester supernatant

  20. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2016-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a 'Starkrimson' × 'Granny Smith' cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility of

  1. A varying-α brane world cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youm, Donam

    2001-08-01

    We study the brane world cosmology in the RS2 model where the electric charge varies with time in the manner described by the varying fine-structure constant theory of Bekenstein. We map such varying electric charge cosmology to the dual variable-speed-of-light cosmology by changing system of units. We comment on cosmological implications for such cosmological models. (author)

  2. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  3. Comparative ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish species in the North Atlantic: Implications for modelling climate and fisheries impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenkel, V. M.; Huse, G.; MacKenzie, B. R.; Alvarez, P.; Arrizabalaga, H.; Castonguay, M.; Goñi, N.; Grégoire, F.; Hátún, H.; Jansen, T.; Jacobsen, J. A.; Lehodey, P.; Lutcavage, M.; Mariani, P.; Melvin, G. D.; Neilson, J. D.; Nøttestad, L.; Óskarsson, G. J.; Payne, M. R.; Richardson, D. E.; Senina, I.; Speirs, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    This paper reviews the current knowledge on the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish stocks in the North Atlantic basin with emphasis on their role in the food web and the factors determining their relationship with the environment. We consider herring (Clupea harengus), mackerel (Scomber scombrus), capelin (Mallotus villosus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), and horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), which have distributions extending beyond the continental shelf and predominantly occur on both sides of the North Atlantic. We also include albacore (Thunnus alalunga), bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), which, by contrast, show large-scale migrations at the basin scale. We focus on the links between life history processes and the environment, horizontal and vertical distribution, spatial structure and trophic role. Many of these species carry out extensive migrations from spawning grounds to nursery and feeding areas. Large oceanographic features such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre play an important role in determining spatial distributions and driving variations in stock size. Given the large biomasses of especially the smaller species considered here, these stocks can exert significant top-down pressures on the food web and are important in supporting higher trophic levels. The review reveals commonalities and differences between the ecology of widely distributed pelagic fish in the NE and NW Atlantic basins, identifies knowledge gaps and modelling needs that the EURO-BASIN project attempts to address.

  4. Estimation of time-varying pollutant emission rates in a ventilated enclosure: inversion of a reduced model obtained by experimental application of the modal identification method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girault, M; Maillet, D; Bonthoux, F; Galland, B; Martin, P; Braconnier, R; Fontaine, J R

    2008-01-01

    A method is proposed for the estimation of time-varying emission rates of pollutant sources in a ventilated enclosure, through the resolution of an inverse forced convection problem. Unsteady transport–diffusion of the pollutant is considered, with the assumption of a stationary velocity field remaining unchanged during emission (passive contaminant). The pollutant transport equation is therefore linear with respect to concentration. The source's location is also supposed to be known. As the first step, a reduced model (RM) linking concentrations at a set of control points to emission rates of sources is identified from experimental data by using the modal identification method (MIM). This parameter estimation problem uses transient contaminant concentration measurements made at control points inside the ventilated enclosure, corresponding to increasing and decreasing steps of emission rates. Such experimental modelling allows us to avoid dealing with a CFD code involving turbulence modelling and to get rid of uncertainties about sensors position. In a second step, the identified RM is used to solve an inverse forced convection problem: from contaminant concentration measured at the same control points, rates of sources emitting simultaneously are estimated with a sequential in time algorithm using future time steps

  5. Using Range-Wide Abundance Modeling to Identify Key Conservation Areas for the Micro-Endemic Bolson Tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinthya A Ureña-Aranda

    Full Text Available A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species.

  6. Towards a plant-wide Benchmark Simulation Model with simultaneous nitrogen and phosphorus removal wastewater treatment processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Ikumi, David; Batstone, Damien

    It is more than 10 years since the publication of the Benchmark Simulation Model No 1 (BSM1) manual (Copp, 2002). The main objective of BSM1 was creating a platform for benchmarking carbon and nitrogen removal strategies in activated sludge systems. The initial platform evolved into BSM1_LT and BSM....... This extension aims at facilitating simultaneous carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus (P) removal process development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level. The main motivation of the work is that numerous wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) pursue biological phosphorus removal as an alternative...... to chemical P removal based on precipitation using metal salts, such as Fe or Al. This paper identifies and discusses important issues that need to be addressed to upgrade the BSM2 to BSM2-P, for example: 1) new influent wastewater characteristics; 2) new (bio) chemical processes to account for; 3...

  7. varying elastic parameters distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Moussawi, Ali

    2014-12-01

    The experimental identication of mechanical properties is crucial in mechanics for understanding material behavior and for the development of numerical models. Classical identi cation procedures employ standard shaped specimens, assume that the mechanical elds in the object are homogeneous, and recover global properties. Thus, multiple tests are required for full characterization of a heterogeneous object, leading to a time consuming and costly process. The development of non-contact, full- eld measurement techniques from which complex kinematic elds can be recorded has opened the door to a new way of thinking. From the identi cation point of view, suitable methods can be used to process these complex kinematic elds in order to recover multiple spatially varying parameters through one test or a few tests. The requirement is the development of identi cation techniques that can process these complex experimental data. This thesis introduces a novel identi cation technique called the constitutive compatibility method. The key idea is to de ne stresses as compatible with the observed kinematic eld through the chosen class of constitutive equation, making possible the uncoupling of the identi cation of stress from the identi cation of the material parameters. This uncoupling leads to parametrized solutions in cases where 5 the solution is non-unique (due to unknown traction boundary conditions) as demonstrated on 2D numerical examples. First the theory is outlined and the method is demonstrated in 2D applications. Second, the method is implemented within a domain decomposition framework in order to reduce the cost for processing very large problems. Finally, it is extended to 3D numerical examples. Promising results are shown for 2D and 3D problems.

  8. Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spindel, J E; Begum, H; Akdemir, D; Collard, B; Redoña, E; Jannink, J-L; McCouch, S

    2016-01-01

    To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable to keep pace with demand. Genomic selection (GS) is a new technique that helps accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding by using whole-genome data to predict the breeding value of offspring. Here, we describe a new GS model that combines RR-BLUP with markers fit as fixed effects selected from the results of a genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the RR-BLUP training data. We term this model GS + de novo GWAS. In a breeding population of tropical rice, GS + de novo GWAS outperformed six other models for a variety of traits and in multiple environments. On the basis of these results, we propose an extended, two-part breeding design that can be used to efficiently integrate novel variation into elite breeding populations, thus expanding genetic diversity and enhancing the potential for sustainable productivity gains. PMID:26860200

  9. Genome-wide significant localization for working and spatial memory: Identifying genes for psychosis using models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Emma E M; Carless, Melanie A; de Almeida, Marcio A A; Curran, Joanne E; McKay, D Reese; Sprooten, Emma; Dyer, Thomas D; Göring, Harald H; Olvera, Rene; Fox, Peter; Almasy, Laura; Duggirala, Ravi; Kent, Jack W; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C

    2014-01-01

    It is well established that risk for developing psychosis is largely mediated by the influence of genes, but identifying precisely which genes underlie that risk has been problematic. Focusing on endophenotypes, rather than illness risk, is one solution to this problem. Impaired cognition is a well-established endophenotype of psychosis. Here we aimed to characterize the genetic architecture of cognition using phenotypically detailed models as opposed to relying on general IQ or individual neuropsychological measures. In so doing we hoped to identify genes that mediate cognitive ability, which might also contribute to psychosis risk. Hierarchical factor models of genetically clustered cognitive traits were subjected to linkage analysis followed by QTL region-specific association analyses in a sample of 1,269 Mexican American individuals from extended pedigrees. We identified four genome wide significant QTLs, two for working and two for spatial memory, and a number of plausible and interesting candidate genes. The creation of detailed models of cognition seemingly enhanced the power to detect genetic effects on cognition and provided a number of possible candidate genes for psychosis. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. GEMMER: GEnome-wide tool for Multi-scale Modeling data Extraction and Representation for Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondeel, Thierry D G A; Crémazy, Frédéric; Barberis, Matteo

    2018-02-01

    Multi-scale modeling of biological systems requires integration of various information about genes and proteins that are connected together in networks. Spatial, temporal and functional information is available; however, it is still a challenge to retrieve and explore this knowledge in an integrated, quick and user-friendly manner. We present GEMMER (GEnome-wide tool for Multi-scale Modelling data Extraction and Representation), a web-based data-integration tool that facilitates high quality visualization of physical, regulatory and genetic interactions between proteins/genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. GEMMER creates network visualizations that integrate information on function, temporal expression, localization and abundance from various existing databases. GEMMER supports modeling efforts by effortlessly gathering this information and providing convenient export options for images and their underlying data. GEMMER is freely available at http://gemmer.barberislab.com. Source code, written in Python, JavaScript library D3js, PHP and JSON, is freely available at https://github.com/barberislab/GEMMER. M.Barberis@uva.nl. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

  11. Modeled dietary impact of industry-wide food and beverage reformulations in the United States and France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gressier, Mathilde; Privet, Lisa; Mathias, Kevin Clark; Vlassopoulos, Antonis; Vieux, Florent; Masset, Gabriel

    2017-07-01

    Background: Food reformulation has been identified as a strategy to improve nutritional intakes; however, little is known about the potential impact of industry-wide reformulations. Objective: The aim of the study was to model the dietary impact of food and beverage reformulation following the Nestlé Nutritional Profiling System (NNPS) standards for children, adolescents, and adults in the United States and France. Design: Dietary intakes of individuals aged ≥4 y were retrieved from nationally representative surveys: the US NHANES 2011-2012 ( n = 7456) and the French Individual and National Survey on Food Consumption ( n = 3330). The composition of all foods and beverages consumed were compared with the NNPS standards for energy, total and saturated fats, sodium, added sugars, protein, fiber, and calcium. Two scenarios were modeled. In the first, the nutrient content of foods and beverages was adjusted to the NNPS standards if they were not met. In the second, products not meeting the standards were replaced by the most nutritionally similar alternative meeting the standards from the same category. Dietary intakes were assessed against local nutrient recommendations, and analyses were stratified by body mass index and socioeconomic status. Results: Scenarios 1 and 2 showed reductions in US adults' mean daily energy (-88 and -225 kcal, respectively), saturated fats (-4.2, -6.9 g), sodium (-406, -324 mg), and added sugars (-29.4, -35.8 g). Similar trends were observed for US youth and in France. The effects on fiber and calcium were limited. In the United States, the social gradient of added sugars intake was attenuated in both scenarios compared with the baseline values. Conclusions: Potential industry-wide reformulation of the food supply could lead to higher compliance with recommendations in both the United States and France, and across all socioeconomic groups. NNPS standards seemed to be especially effective for nutrients consumed in excess. © 2017 American

  12. Can widely used cell type markers predict the suitability of immortalized or primary mammary epithelial cell models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Corneille Ontsouka

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mammary cell cultures are convenient tools for in vitro studies of mammary gland biology. However, the heterogeneity of mammary cell types, e.g., glandular milk secretory epithelial or myoepithelial cells, often complicates the interpretation of cell-based data. The present study was undertaken to determine the relevance of bovine primary mammary epithelial cells isolated from American Holstein (bMEC US or Swiss Holstein-Friesian (bMEC CH cows, and of primary bovine mammary alveolar epithelial cells stably transfected with simian virus-40 (SV-40 large T-antigen (MAC-T for in vitro analyses. This was evaluated by testing their expression pattern of cytokeratin (CK 7, 18, 19, vimentin, and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA. RESULTS: The expression of the listed markers was assessed using real-time quantitative PCR, flow cytometry and immunofluorescence microscopy. Characteristic markers of the mesenchymal (vimentin, myoepithelial (α-SMA and glandular secretory cells (CKs showed differential expression among the studied cell cultures, partly depending on the analytical method used. The relative mRNA expression of vimentin, CK7 and CK19, respectively, was lower (P < 0.05 in immortalized than in primary mammary cell cultures. The stain index (based on flow cytometry of CK7 and CK19 protein was lower (P < 0.05 in MAC-T than in bMECs, while the expression of α-SMA and CK18 showed an inverse pattern. Immunofluorescence microscopy analysis mostly confirmed the mRNA data, while partly disagreed with flow cytometry data (e.g., vimentin level in MAC-T. The differential expression of CK7 and CK19 allowed discriminating between immortal and primary mammary cultures. CONCLUSIONS: The expression of the selected widely used cell type markers in primary and immortalized MEC cells did not allow a clear preference between these two cell models for in vitro analyses studying aspects of milk composition. All tested cell models exhibited to a variable

  13. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  14. An investigation into the use of a mixture model for simulating the electrical properties of soil with varying effective saturation levels for sub-soil imaging using ECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayes, R R; Newill, P A; Podd, F J W; York, T A; Grieve, B D; Dorn, O

    2010-01-01

    A new visualisation tool is being developed for seed breeders, providing on-line data for each individual plant in a screening programme. It will be used to indicate how efficiently each plant utilises the water and nutrients available in the surrounding soil. This will facilitate early detection of desirable genetic traits with the aim of increased efficiency in identification and delivery of tomorrow's drought tolerant food crops. Visualisation takes the form of Electrical Capacitance Tomography (ECT), a non-destructive and non-intrusive imaging technique. Measurements are to be obtained for an individual plant thus allowing water and nutrient absorption levels for an individual specimen to be inferred. This paper presents the inverse problem, discusses the inherent challenges and presents the early experimental results. Two mixture models are evaluated for the prediction of electrical capacitance measurement data for varying effective soil saturation levels using a finite element model implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics. These early studies have given the research team an understanding of the technical challenges that must now be addressed to take the current research into the world of agri-science and food supply.

  15. Reconstruction of Oryza sativa indica Genome Scale Metabolic Model and Its Responses to Varying RuBisCO Activity, Light Intensity, and Enzymatic Cost Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankita Chatterjee

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available To combat decrease in rice productivity under different stresses, an understanding of rice metabolism is needed. Though there are different genome scale metabolic models (GSMs of Oryza sativa japonica, no GSM with gene-protein-reaction association exist for Oryza sativa indica. Here, we report a GSM, OSI1136 of O.s. indica, which includes 3602 genes and 1136 metabolic reactions and transporters distributed across the cytosol, mitochondrion, peroxisome, and chloroplast compartments. Flux balance analysis of the model showed that for varying RuBisCO activity (Vc/Vo (i the activity of the chloroplastic malate valve increases to transport reducing equivalents out of the chloroplast under increased photorespiratory conditions and (ii glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and phosphoglycerate kinase can act as source of cytosolic ATP under decreased photorespiration. Under increasing light conditions we observed metabolic flexibility, involving photorespiration, chloroplastic triose phosphate and the dicarboxylate transporters of the chloroplast and mitochondrion for redox and ATP exchanges across the intracellular compartments. Simulations under different enzymatic cost conditions revealed (i participation of peroxisomal glutathione-ascorbate cycle in photorespiratory H2O2 metabolism (ii different modes of the chloroplastic triose phosphate transporters and malate valve, and (iii two possible modes of chloroplastic Glu–Gln transporter which were related with the activity of chloroplastic and cytosolic isoforms of glutamine synthetase. Altogether, our results provide new insights into plant metabolism.

  16. Novel probabilistic models of spatial genetic ancestry with applications to stratification correction in genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskar, Anand; Javanmard, Adel; Courtade, Thomas A; Tse, David

    2017-03-15

    Genetic variation in human populations is influenced by geographic ancestry due to spatial locality in historical mating and migration patterns. Spatial population structure in genetic datasets has been traditionally analyzed using either model-free algorithms, such as principal components analysis (PCA) and multidimensional scaling, or using explicit spatial probabilistic models of allele frequency evolution. We develop a general probabilistic model and an associated inference algorithm that unify the model-based and data-driven approaches to visualizing and inferring population structure. Our spatial inference algorithm can also be effectively applied to the problem of population stratification in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where hidden population structure can create fictitious associations when population ancestry is correlated with both the genotype and the trait. Our algorithm Geographic Ancestry Positioning (GAP) relates local genetic distances between samples to their spatial distances, and can be used for visually discerning population structure as well as accurately inferring the spatial origin of individuals on a two-dimensional continuum. On both simulated and several real datasets from diverse human populations, GAP exhibits substantially lower error in reconstructing spatial ancestry coordinates compared to PCA. We also develop an association test that uses the ancestry coordinates inferred by GAP to accurately account for ancestry-induced correlations in GWAS. Based on simulations and analysis of a dataset of 10 metabolic traits measured in a Northern Finland cohort, which is known to exhibit significant population structure, we find that our method has superior power to current approaches. Our software is available at https://github.com/anand-bhaskar/gap . abhaskar@stanford.edu or ajavanma@usc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

  17. Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl NPP accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

    2013-03-01

    The coupled model LMDzORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5°×1.25°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.45°×0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels, respectively, extending up to mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 vertical levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The best choice for the model validation was the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986. This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. However, the best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to Atlas), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of

  18. DOMINO: development of informative molecular markers for phylogenetic and genome-wide population genetic studies in non-model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frías-López, Cristina; Sánchez-Herrero, José F; Guirao-Rico, Sara; Mora, Elisa; Arnedo, Miquel A; Sánchez-Gracia, Alejandro; Rozas, Julio

    2016-12-15

    The development of molecular markers is one of the most important challenges in phylogenetic and genome wide population genetics studies, especially in studies with non-model organisms. A highly promising approach for obtaining suitable markers is the utilization of genomic partitioning strategies for the simultaneous discovery and genotyping of a large number of markers. Unfortunately, not all markers obtained from these strategies provide enough information for solving multiple evolutionary questions at a reasonable taxonomic resolution. We have developed Development Of Molecular markers In Non-model Organisms (DOMINO), a bioinformatics tool for informative marker development from both next generation sequencing (NGS) data and pre-computed sequence alignments. The application implements popular NGS tools with new utilities in a highly versatile pipeline specifically designed to discover or select personalized markers at different levels of taxonomic resolution. These markers can be directly used to study the taxa surveyed for their design, utilized for further downstream PCR amplification in a broader set taxonomic scope, or exploited as suitable templates to bait design for target DNA enrichment techniques. We conducted an exhaustive evaluation of the performance of DOMINO via computer simulations and illustrate its utility to find informative markers in an empirical dataset. DOMINO is freely available from www.ub.edu/softevol/domino CONTACT: elsanchez@ub.edu or jrozas@ub.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. A novel variational Bayes multiple locus Z-statistic for genome-wide association studies with Bayesian model averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logsdon, Benjamin A.; Carty, Cara L.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Dai, James Y.; Kooperberg, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Motivation: For many complex traits, including height, the majority of variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have small effects, leaving a significant proportion of the heritable variation unexplained. Although many penalized multiple regression methodologies have been proposed to increase the power to detect associations for complex genetic architectures, they generally lack mechanisms for false-positive control and diagnostics for model over-fitting. Our methodology is the first penalized multiple regression approach that explicitly controls Type I error rates and provide model over-fitting diagnostics through a novel normally distributed statistic defined for every marker within the GWAS, based on results from a variational Bayes spike regression algorithm. Results: We compare the performance of our method to the lasso and single marker analysis on simulated data and demonstrate that our approach has superior performance in terms of power and Type I error control. In addition, using the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) GWAS of African-Americans, we show that our method has power to detect additional novel associations with body height. These findings replicate by reaching a stringent cutoff of marginal association in a larger cohort. Availability: An R-package, including an implementation of our variational Bayes spike regression (vBsr) algorithm, is available at http://kooperberg.fhcrc.org/soft.html. Contact: blogsdon@fhcrc.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22563072

  20. Modeling and Simulation of - and Silicon Germanium-Base Bipolar Transistors Operating at a Wide Range of Temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheed, M. Reaz

    1995-01-01

    to provide consistently accurate values for base sheet resistance for both Si- and SiGe-base transistors over a wide range of temperatures. A model for plasma-induced bandgap narrowing suitable for implementation in a numerical simulator has been developed. The appropriate method of incorporating this model in a drift -diffusion solver is described. The importance of including this model for low temperature simulation is demonstrated. With these models in place, the enhanced simulator has been used for evaluating and designing the Si- and SiGe-base bipolar transistors. Silicon-germanium heterojunction bipolar transistors offer significant performance and cost advantages over conventional technologies in the production of integrated circuits for communications, computer and transportation applications. Their high frequency performance at low cost, will find widespread use in the currently exploding wireless communication market. However, the high performance SiGe-base transistors are prone to have a low common-emitter breakdown voltage. In this dissertation, a modification in the collector design is proposed for improving the breakdown voltage without sacrificing the high frequency performance. A comprehensive simulation study of p-n-p SiGe-base transistors has been performed. Different figures of merit such as drive current, current gain, cut -off frequency and Early voltage were compared between a graded germanium profile and an abrupt germanium profile. The differences in the performance level between the two profiles diminishes as the base width is scaled down.

  1. Ultra wide band antennas

    CERN Document Server

    Begaud, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Ultra Wide Band Technology (UWB) has reached a level of maturity that allows us to offer wireless links with either high or low data rates. These wireless links are frequently associated with a location capability for which ultimate accuracy varies with the inverse of the frequency bandwidth. Using time or frequency domain waveforms, they are currently the subject of international standards facilitating their commercial implementation. Drawing up a complete state of the art, Ultra Wide Band Antennas is aimed at students, engineers and researchers and presents a summary of internationally recog

  2. Development and evaluation of a connective tissue phantom model for subsurface visualization of cancers requiring wide local excision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Bates, Brent D.; Tselepidakis, Niki N.; DSouza, Alisha V.; Gunn, Jason R.; Ramkumar, Dipak B.; Paulsen, Keith D.; Pogue, Brian W.; Henderson, Eric R.

    2017-12-01

    Wide local excision (WLE) of tumors with negative margins remains a challenge because surgeons cannot directly visualize the mass. Fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS) may improve surgical accuracy; however, conventional methods with direct surface tumor visualization are not immediately applicable, and properties of tissues surrounding the cancer must be considered. We developed a phantom model for sarcoma resection with the near-infrared fluorophore IRDye 800CW and used it to iteratively define the properties of connective tissues that typically surround sarcoma tumors. We then tested the ability of a blinded surgeon to resect fluorescent tumor-simulating inclusions with ˜1-cm margins using predetermined target fluorescence intensities and a Solaris open-air fluorescence imaging system. In connective tissue-simulating phantoms, fluorescence intensity decreased with increasing blood concentration and increased with increasing intralipid concentrations. Fluorescent inclusions could be resolved at ≥1-cm depth in all inclusion concentrations and sizes tested. When inclusion depth was held constant, fluorescence intensity decreased with decreasing volume. Using targeted fluorescence intensities, a blinded surgeon was able to successfully excise inclusions with ˜1-cm margins from fat- and muscle-simulating phantoms with inclusion-to-background contrast ratios as low as 2∶1. Indirect, subsurface FGS is a promising tool for surgical resection of cancers requiring WLE.

  3. Genome-wide allelotyping of a new in vitro model system reveals early events in breast cancer progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zheng; Meng, Zhen Hang; Sayeed, Aejaz; Shalaby, Refaat; Ljung, Britt-Marie; Dairkee, Shanaz H

    2002-10-15

    Toward the goal of identifying early genetic losses, which mediate the release of human breast epithelium from replicative suppression leading to cellular immortalization, we have used a newly developed in vitro model system. This system consists of epithelial cultures derived from noncancerous breast tissue, treated with the chemical carcinogen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea, and continuously passaged to yield cell populations culminating in the immortal phenotype. Genome-wide allelotyping of early passage N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-exposed cell populations revealed aberrations at >10% (18 of 169) loci examined. Allelic losses encompassing chromosomes 6q24-6q27, implicating immortalization-associated candidate genes, hZAC and SEN6, occurred in two independently derived cell lines before the Hayflick limit. Additional LOH sites were present in one cell line at 3p11-3p26, 11p15, and 20p12-13. Allelic losses reported in this cell line preceded detectable levels of telomerase activity and the occurrence of p53-related aberrations. Information gained from the search for early immortalization-associated genetic deletions in cultured cells was applied in a novel approach toward the analysis of morphologically normal terminal ductal lobular units microdissected from 20 cases of ductal carcinoma in situ. Notably, clonal allelic losses at chromosome 3p24 and 6q24 were an early occurrence in adjoining terminal ductal lobular units of a proportion of primary tumors, which displayed loss of heterozygosity (3 of 11 and 3 of 6, respectively). The biological insights provided by the new model system reported here strongly suggest that early allelic losses delineated in immortalized cultures and validated in vivo could serve as surrogate endpoints to assist in the identification and intervention of high-risk benign breast tissue, which sustains the potential for continuous proliferation.

  4. Local genealogies in a linear mixed model for genome-wide association mapping in complex pedigreed populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goutam Sahana

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The state-of-the-art for dealing with multiple levels of relationship among the samples in genome-wide association studies (GWAS is unified mixed model analysis (MMA. This approach is very flexible, can be applied to both family-based and population-based samples, and can be extended to incorporate other effects in a straightforward and rigorous fashion. Here, we present a complementary approach, called 'GENMIX (genealogy based mixed model' which combines advantages from two powerful GWAS methods: genealogy-based haplotype grouping and MMA. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We validated GENMIX using genotyping data of Danish Jersey cattle and simulated phenotype and compared to the MMA. We simulated scenarios for three levels of heritability (0.21, 0.34, and 0.64, seven levels of MAF (0.05, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.35, and 0.45 and five levels of QTL effect (0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7 and 1.0 in phenotypic standard deviation unit. Each of these 105 possible combinations (3 h(2 x 7 MAF x 5 effects of scenarios was replicated 25 times. RESULTS: GENMIX provides a better ranking of markers close to the causative locus' location. GENMIX outperformed MMA when the QTL effect was small and the MAF at the QTL was low. In scenarios where MAF was high or the QTL affecting the trait had a large effect both GENMIX and MMA performed similarly. CONCLUSION: In discovery studies, where high-ranking markers are identified and later examined in validation studies, we therefore expect GENMIX to enrich candidates brought to follow-up studies with true positives over false positives more than the MMA would.

  5. Therapeutic analysis of high-dose-rate {sup 192}Ir vaginal cuff brachytherapy for endometrial cancer using a cylindrical target volume model and varied cancer cell distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Hualin, E-mail: hualin.zhang@northwestern.edu; Donnelly, Eric D.; Strauss, Jonathan B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert H. Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern Memorial Hospital, Chicago, Illinois 60611 (United States); Qi, Yujin [Centre for Medical Radiation Physics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522 (Australia)

    2016-01-15

    Purpose: To evaluate high-dose-rate (HDR) vaginal cuff brachytherapy (VCBT) in the treatment of endometrial cancer in a cylindrical target volume with either a varied or a constant cancer cell distributions using the linear quadratic (LQ) model. Methods: A Monte Carlo (MC) technique was used to calculate the 3D dose distribution of HDR VCBT over a variety of cylinder diameters and treatment lengths. A treatment planning system (TPS) was used to make plans for the various cylinder diameters, treatment lengths, and prescriptions using the clinical protocol. The dwell times obtained from the TPS were fed into MC. The LQ model was used to evaluate the therapeutic outcome of two brachytherapy regimens prescribed either at 0.5 cm depth (5.5 Gy × 4 fractions) or at the vaginal mucosal surface (8.8 Gy × 4 fractions) for the treatment of endometrial cancer. An experimentally determined endometrial cancer cell distribution, which showed a varied and resembled a half-Gaussian distribution, was used in radiobiology modeling. The equivalent uniform dose (EUD) to cancer cells was calculated for each treatment scenario. The therapeutic ratio (TR) was defined by comparing VCBT with a uniform dose radiotherapy plan in term of normal cell survival at the same level of cancer cell killing. Calculations of clinical impact were run twice assuming two different types of cancer cell density distributions in the cylindrical target volume: (1) a half-Gaussian or (2) a uniform distribution. Results: EUDs were weakly dependent on cylinder size, treatment length, and the prescription depth, but strongly dependent on the cancer cell distribution. TRs were strongly dependent on the cylinder size, treatment length, types of the cancer cell distributions, and the sensitivity of normal tissue. With a half-Gaussian distribution of cancer cells which populated at the vaginal mucosa the most, the EUDs were between 6.9 Gy × 4 and 7.8 Gy × 4, the TRs were in the range from (5.0){sup 4} to (13

  6. Genome-wide analysis of Aux/IAA gene family in Solanaceae species using tomato as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Peng, Zhen; Liu, Songyu; He, Yanjun; Cheng, Lin; Kong, Fuling; Wang, Jie; Lu, Gang

    2012-04-01

    Auxin plays key roles in a wide variety of plant activities, including embryo development, leaf formation, phototropism, fruit development and root initiation and development. Auxin/indoleacetic acid (Aux/IAA) genes, encoding short-lived nuclear proteins, are key regulators in the auxin transduction pathway. But how they work is still unknown. In order to conduct a systematic analysis of this gene family in Solanaceae species, a genome-wide search for the homologues of auxin response genes was carried out. Here, 26 and 27 non redundant AUX/IAAs were identified in tomato and potato, respectively. Using tomato as a model, a comprehensive overview of SlIAA gene family is presented, including the gene structures, phylogeny, chromosome locations, conserved motifs and cis-elements in promoter sequences. A phylogenetic tree generated from alignments of the predicted protein sequences of 31 OsIAAs, 29 AtIAAs, 31 ZmIAAs, and 26 SlIAAs revealed that these IAAs were clustered into three major groups and ten subgroups. Among them, seven subgroups were present in both monocot and dicot species, which indicated that the major functional diversification within the IAA family predated the monocot/dicot divergence. In contrast, group C and some other subgroups seemed to be species-specific. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis showed that 19 of the 26 SlIAA genes could be detected in all tomato organs/tissues, however, seven of them were specifically expressed in some of tomato tissues. The transcript abundance of 17 SlIAA genes were increased within a few hours when the seedlings were treated with exogenous IAA. However, those of other six SlIAAs were decreased. The results of stress treatments showed that most SIIAA family genes responded to at least one of the three stress treatments, however, they exhibited diverse expression levels under different abiotic stress conditions in tomato seedlings. SlIAA20, SlIAA21 and SlIAA22 were not significantly influenced by stress

  7. A plant wide aqueous phase chemistry model describing pH variations and ion speciation/pairing in wastewater treatment process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, X.; Mbamba, C. Kazadi; Solon, K.

    cationic/anionic loads. In this way, the general applicability/flexibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated by implementing the aqueous phase chemistry module in some of the most frequently used WWTP process simulation models. Finally, it is shown how traditional wastewater modelling studies can......, require a major, but unavoidable, additional degree of complexity when representing cationic/anionic behaviour in Activated Sludge (AS)/Anaerobic Digestion (AD) systems (Ikumi et al., 2014). In this paper, a plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations plus ion speciation...... of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) in order to reduce the overall stiffness of the system, thereby enhancing simulation speed. Additionally, a multi-dimensional version of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to handle the existing multiple algebraic inter-dependencies (Solon et al., 2015...

  8. Genome-Wide Screen for Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genes Contributing to Opportunistic Pathogenicity in an Invertebrate Model Host

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujal S. Phadke

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental opportunistic pathogens can exploit vulnerable hosts through expression of traits selected for in their natural environments. Pathogenicity is itself a complicated trait underpinned by multiple complex traits, such as thermotolerance, morphology, and stress response. The baker’s yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, is a species with broad environmental tolerance that has been increasingly reported as an opportunistic pathogen of humans. Here we leveraged the genetic resources available in yeast and a model insect species, the greater waxmoth Galleria mellonella, to provide a genome-wide analysis of pathogenicity factors. Using serial passaging experiments of genetically marked wild-type strains, a hybrid strain was identified as the most fit genotype across all replicates. To dissect the genetic basis for pathogenicity in the hybrid isolate, bulk segregant analysis was performed which revealed eight quantitative trait loci significantly differing between the two bulks with alleles from both parents contributing to pathogenicity. A second passaging experiment with a library of deletion mutants for most yeast genes identified a large number of mutations whose relative fitness differed in vivo vs. in vitro, including mutations in genes controlling cell wall integrity, mitochondrial function, and tyrosine metabolism. Yeast is presumably subjected to a massive assault by the innate insect immune system that leads to melanization of the host and to a large bottleneck in yeast population size. Our data support that resistance to the innate immune response of the insect is key to survival in the host and identifies shared genetic mechanisms between S. cerevisiae and other opportunistic fungal pathogens.

  9. Validation of a Monte Carlo model used for simulating tube current modulation in computed tomography over a wide range of phantom conditions/challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bostani, Maryam, E-mail: mbostani@mednet.ucla.edu; McMillan, Kyle; Cagnon, Chris H.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F. [Departments of Biomedical Physics and Radiology, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90024 (United States); DeMarco, John J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation methods have been widely used in patient dosimetry in computed tomography (CT), including estimating patient organ doses. However, most simulation methods have undergone a limited set of validations, often using homogeneous phantoms with simple geometries. As clinical scanning has become more complex and the use of tube current modulation (TCM) has become pervasive in the clinic, MC simulations should include these techniques in their methodologies and therefore should also be validated using a variety of phantoms with different shapes and material compositions to result in a variety of differently modulated tube current profiles. The purpose of this work is to perform the measurements and simulations to validate a Monte Carlo model under a variety of test conditions where fixed tube current (FTC) and TCM were used. Methods: A previously developed MC model for estimating dose from CT scans that models TCM, built using the platform of MCNPX, was used for CT dose quantification. In order to validate the suitability of this model to accurately simulate patient dose from FTC and TCM CT scan, measurements and simulations were compared over a wide range of conditions. Phantoms used for testing range from simple geometries with homogeneous composition (16 and 32 cm computed tomography dose index phantoms) to more complex phantoms including a rectangular homogeneous water equivalent phantom, an elliptical shaped phantom with three sections (where each section was a homogeneous, but different material), and a heterogeneous, complex geometry anthropomorphic phantom. Each phantom requires varying levels of x-, y- and z-modulation. Each phantom was scanned on a multidetector row CT (Sensation 64) scanner under the conditions of both FTC and TCM. Dose measurements were made at various surface and depth positions within each phantom. Simulations using each phantom were performed for FTC, detailed x–y–z TCM, and z-axis-only TCM to obtain

  10. Improved Models and Tools for Prediction of Radiation Effects on Space Electronics in Wide Temperature Range, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — All NASA exploration systems operate in the extreme environments of space (Moon, Mars, etc.) and require reliable electronics capable of handling a wide temperature...

  11. Improved Models and Tools for Prediction of Radiation Effects on Space Electronics in Wide Temperature Range, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — All NASA exploration systems operate in the extreme environments of space and require reliable electronics capable of handling a wide temperature range (-180ºC to...

  12. Multilocus genetic models of handedness closely resemble single-locus models in explaining family data and are compatible with genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, I C; Davison, Angus; Armour, John A L

    2013-06-01

    Right- and left-handedness run in families, show greater concordance in monozygotic than dizygotic twins, and are well described by single-locus Mendelian models. Here we summarize a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) that finds no significant associations with handedness and is consistent with a meta-analysis of GWASs. The GWAS had 99% power to detect a single locus using the conventional criterion of P < 5 × 10(-8) for the single locus models of McManus and Annett. The strong conclusion is that handedness is not controlled by a single genetic locus. A consideration of the genetic architecture of height, primary ciliary dyskinesia, and intelligence suggests that handedness inheritance can be explained by a multilocus variant of the McManus DC model, classical effects on family and twins being barely distinguishable from the single locus model. Based on the ENGAGE meta-analysis of GWASs, we estimate at least 40 loci are involved in determining handedness. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Model-supported estimation of mortality rates in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L. larvae: the varying impact of 'critical periods'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hinrichsen Hans-Harald

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Changes in the survival-rate during the larval phase may strongly influence the recruitment level in marine fish species. During the larval phase different 'critical periods' are discussed, e.g. the hatching period and the first-feeding period. No such information was available for the Baltic cod stock, a commercially important stock showing reproduction failure during the last years. We calculated field-based mortality rates for larval Baltic cod during these phases using basin-wide abundance estimates from two consecutive surveys. Survey information was corrected by three dimensional hydrodynamic model runs. Results The corrections applied for transport were of variable impact, depending on the prevailing circulation patterns. Especially at high wind forcing scenarios, abundance estimates have the potential to be biased without accounting for transport processes. In May 1988 mortality between hatch and first feeding amounted to approximately 20% per day. Mortality rates during the onset of feeding were considerably lower with only 7% per day. In August 1991 the situation was vice versa: Extremely low mortality rates of 0.08% per day were calculated between hatch and first feeding, while the period between the onset of feeding to the state of an established feeder was more critical with mortality rates of 22% per day. Conclusions Mortality rates during the different proposed 'critical periods' were found to be highly variable. Survival rates of Baltic cod are not only influenced by a single 'critical period', but can be limited at different points during the larval phase, depending on several biotic and abiotic factors.

  14. In-Sample Confidence Bands and Out-of-Sample Forecast Bands for Time-Varying Parameters in Observation Driven Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blasques, F.; Koopman, S.J.; Lasak, K.A.; Lucas, A.

    2016-01-01

    We study the performances of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out-of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty, while the out-of-sample bands reflect not only parameter uncertainty, but also innovation

  15. Principal Leadership and School Culture with a School-Wide Implementation of Professional Crisis Management: A Redemptive v. Punitive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Mark Thomas

    2013-01-01

    This qualitative study investigated the nature of the relationship between principal leadership and school culture within a school-wide implementation of Professional Crisis Management (PCM). PCM is a comprehensive and fully integrated system designed to manage crisis situations effectively, safely, and with dignity. While designed primarily to…

  16. Practical Wide-speed-range Sensorless Control System for Permanent Magnet Reluctance Synchronous Motor Drives via Active Flux Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ancuti, Mihaela Codruta; Tutelea, Lucian; Andreescu, Gheorghe-Daniel

    2014-01-01

    This article introduces a control strategy to obtain near-maximum available torque in a wide speed range with sensorless operation via the active flux concept for permanent magnet-reluctance synchronous motor drives. A new torque dq current reference calculator is proposed, with reference torque...

  17. Merging Empiricism and Humanism: Role of Social Validity in the School-Wide Positive Behavior Support Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchant, Michelle; Heath, Melissa Allen; Miramontes, Nancy Y.

    2013-01-01

    Criteria for evaluating behavior support programs are changing. Consumer-based educational and behavioral programs, such as School-Wide Positive Behavior Support (SWPBS), are particularly influenced by consumer opinion. Unfortunately, the need for and use of social validity measures have not received adequate attention in the empirical literature…

  18. Combine TV-L1 model with guided image filtering for wide and faint ring artifacts correction of in-line x-ray phase contrast computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongjiang; Qu, Gangrong; Hu, Chunhong; Zhao, Yuqing; Chen, Xiaodong

    2018-01-01

    In practice, mis-calibrated detector pixels give rise to wide and faint ring artifacts in the reconstruction image of the In-line phase-contrast computed tomography (IL-PC-CT). Ring artifacts correction is essential in IL-PC-CT. In this study, a novel method of wide and faint ring artifacts correction was presented based on combining TV-L1 model with guided image filtering (GIF) in the reconstruction image domain. The new correction method includes two main steps namely, the GIF step and the TV-L1 step. To validate the performance of this method, simulation data and real experimental synchrotron data are provided. The results demonstrate that TV-L1 model with GIF step can effectively correct the wide and faint ring artifacts for IL-PC-CT.

  19. Quantitative comparisons of three modeling approaches for characterizing drought response of a highly variable, widely grown crop species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleban, J. R.; Mackay, D. S.; Aston, T.; Ewers, B. E.; Wienig, C.

    2013-12-01

    Quantifying the drought tolerance of crop species and genotypes is essential in order to predict how water stress may impact agricultural productivity. As climate models predict an increase in both frequency and severity of drought corresponding plant hydraulic and biochemical models are needed to accurately predict crop drought tolerance. Drought can result in cavitation of xylem conduits and related loss of plant hydraulic conductivity. This study tested the hypothesis that a model incorporating a plants vulnerability to cavitation would best assess drought tolerance in Brassica rapa. Four Brassica genotypes were subjected to drought conditions at a field site in Laramie, WY. Concurrent leaf gas exchange, volumetric soil moisture content and xylem pressure measurements were made during the drought period. Three models were used to access genotype specific drought tolerance. All 3 models rely on the Farquhar biochemical/biophysical model of leaf level photosynthesis, which is integrated into the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES). The models differ in how TREES applies the environmental driving data and plant physiological mechanisms; specifically how water availability at the site of photosynthesis is derived. Model 1 established leaf water availability from a modeled soil moisture content; Model 2 input soil moisture measurements directly to establish leaf water availability; Model 3 incorporated the Sperry soil-plant transport model, which calculates flows and pressure along the soil-plant water transport pathway to establish leaf water availability. This third model incorporated measured xylem pressures thus constraining leaf water availability via genotype specific vulnerability curves. A multi-model intercomparison was made using a Bayesian approach, which assessed the interaction between uncertainty in model results and data. The three models were further evaluated by assessing model accuracy and complexity via deviance information

  20. Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Dobiesz, Norine E.; Fielder, David G.; Johnson, James E.; Ebener, Mark P.; Cottrill, Adam R.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Koproski, Scott R.

    2015-01-01

    We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

  1. Wrong, but useful: regional species distribution models may not be improved by range-wide data under biased sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gabbas, Ahmed; Dormann, Carsten F

    2018-02-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an essential method in ecology and conservation. SDMs are often calibrated within one country's borders, typically along a limited environmental gradient with biased and incomplete data, making the quality of these models questionable. In this study, we evaluated how adequate are national presence-only data for calibrating regional SDMs. We trained SDMs for Egyptian bat species at two different scales: only within Egypt and at a species-specific global extent. We used two modeling algorithms: Maxent and elastic net, both under the point-process modeling framework. For each modeling algorithm, we measured the congruence of the predictions of global and regional models for Egypt, assuming that the lower the congruence, the lower the appropriateness of the Egyptian dataset to describe the species' niche. We inspected the effect of incorporating predictions from global models as additional predictor ("prior") to regional models, and quantified the improvement in terms of AUC and the congruence between regional models run with and without priors. Moreover, we analyzed predictive performance improvements after correction for sampling bias at both scales. On average, predictions from global and regional models in Egypt only weakly concur. Collectively, the use of priors did not lead to much improvement: similar AUC and high congruence between regional models calibrated with and without priors. Correction for sampling bias led to higher model performance, whatever prior used, making the use of priors less pronounced. Under biased and incomplete sampling, the use of global bats data did not improve regional model performance. Without enough bias-free regional data, we cannot objectively identify the actual improvement of regional models after incorporating information from the global niche. However, we still believe in great potential for global model predictions to guide future surveys and improve regional sampling in data

  2. A Mathematical Model of Hourly Solar Radiation in Varying Weather Conditions for a Dynamic Simulation of the Solar Organic Rankine Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taehong Sung

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model of hourly solar radiation with weather variability is proposed based on the simple sky model. The model uses a superposition of trigonometric functions with short and long periods. We investigate the effects of the model variables on the clearness (kD and the probability of persistence (POPD indices and also evaluate the proposed model for all of the kD-POPD weather classes. A simple solar organic Rankine cycle (SORC system with thermal storage is simulated using the actual weather conditions, and then, the results are compared with the simulation results using the proposed model and the simple sky model. The simulation results show that the proposed model provides more accurate system operation characteristics than the simple sky model.

  3. Transient Inverse Calibration of the Site-Wide Groundwater Flow Model (ACM-2): FY03 Progress Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeul, Vince R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Cole, C R.; Murray, Christopher J.; Nichols, William E.; Scheibe, Timothy D.; Thorne, Paul D.; Waichler, Scott R.; Xie, YuLong

    2003-01-01

    DOE and PNNL are working to strengthen the technical defensibility of the groundwater flow and transport model at the Hanford Site and to incorporate uncertainty into the model. One aspect of the initiative is developing and using a three-dimensional transient inverse model to estimate the hydraulic conductivities, specific yields, and other parameters using data from Hanford since 1943. The focus of the alternative conceptual model (ACM-2) inverse modeling initiative documented in this report was to address limitations identified in the ACM-1 model, complete the facies-based approach for representing the hydraulic conductivity distribution in the Hanford and middle Ringold Formations, develop the approach and implementation methodology for generating multiple ACMs based on geostatistical data analysis, and develop an approach for inverse modeling of these stochastic ACMs. The primary modifications to ACM-2 transient inverse model include facies-based zonation of Units 1 (Hanford ) and 5 (middle Ringold); an improved approach for handling run-on recharge from upland areas based on watershed modeling results; an improved approach for representing artificial discharges from site operations; and minor changes to the geologic conceptual model. ACM-2 is the first attempt to fully incorporate the facies-based approach to represent the hydrogeologic structure. Further refinement and additional improvements to overall model fit will be realized during future inverse simulations of groundwater flow and transport. In addition, preliminary work was completed on an approach and implementation for generating an inverse modeling of stochastic ACMs. These techniques were applied to assess the uncertainty in the facies-based zonation of the Hanford formation and the geological structure of Ringold mud units. The geostatistical analysis used a preliminary interpretation of the facies-based zonation that was not consistent with that used in ACM-2. Although the overall objective of

  4. Modelling and validation of a simple and compact wide upper stop band ultra-wideband bandpass filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somdotta Roy Choudhury

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A compact ultra-wideband (UWB bandpass filter (BPF is proposed based on end coupled microstrip transmission line, defected ground structure and defected microstrip structure. The experimental filter shows a fractional bandwidth of 110% at a centre frequency, with two observable transmission zeros (attenuation poles at 2.1 and 11.7 GHz. Measured results exhibit an UWB passband from 3.02 to 10.6 GHz with mid-band insertion loss of 1.8 dB and group delay variation <0.45 ns. The BPF achieves a wide stopband with < −18 dB attenuation up to 20 GHz.

  5. Integrated management model. Methodology and software-enabled tood designed to assist a utility in developing a station-wide optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llovet, R.; Ibanez, R.; Woodcock, J.

    2005-01-01

    A key concern for utilities today is optimizing station aging and realibility management activities in a manner that maximizes the value of those activities withing an affordable budget. The Westinghouse Proactive Asset Management Model is a methodology and software-enabled tood designed to assist a utility in developing a station-wide optimization of those activities. The process and tool support the development of an optimized, station-wide plan for inspection, testing, maintenance, repaor and replacement of aging components. The optimization identifies the benefit and optimal timing of those activities based on minimizing unplanned outage costs (avoided costs) and maximizing station Net Present Value. (Author)

  6. Modelling continuous pharmaceutical and bio-based processes at plant-wide level: A roadmap towards efficient decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Pedram; Mansouri, Seyed Soheil; Udugama, Isuru A.

    2018-01-01

    The importance of developing simulation models for decision making in pharmaceutical and bio-based production processes is elaborated in this article. The advantages of modelling continuous processes are outlined and certain barriers in this regard are identified. Although there have been some...

  7. Modelling continuous pharmaceutical and bio-based processes at plant-wide level: A roadmap towards efficient decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Pedram; Mansouri, Seyed Soheil; Udugama, Isuru A.

    2018-01-01

    The importance of developing simulation models for decision making in pharmaceutical and bio-based production processes is elaborated in this article. The advantages of modelling continuous processes are outlined and certain barriers in this regard are identified. Although there have been some...... advancements in the field, there needs to be a larger international collaboration in this regard for providing reliable data for model validation, for development of generic modelbased frameworks and implementing them in computer-aided platforms in the form of software tools....

  8. Systems genetics of obesity in an F2 pig model by genome-wide association, genetic network and pathway analyses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kogelman, Lisette; Pant, Sameer Dinkar; Fredholm, Merete

    2014-01-01

    .g. metabolic processes. WISH networks based on genotypic correlations allowed further identification of various gene ontology terms and pathways related to obesity and related traits, which were not identified by the GWA study. In conclusion, this is the first study to develop a (genetic) obesity index...... investigations focusing on single genetic variants have achieved limited success, and the importance of including genetic interactions is becoming evident. Here, the aim was to perform an integrative genomic analysis in an F2 pig resource population that was constructed with an aim to maximize genetic variation...... of obesity-related phenotypes and genotyped using the 60K SNP chip. Firstly, Genome Wide Association (GWA) analysis was performed on the Obesity Index to locate candidate genomic regions that were further validated using combined Linkage Disequilibrium Linkage Analysis and investigated by evaluation...

  9. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  10. Genome-wide identification of Pseudomonas aeruginosa virulence-related genes using a Caenorhabditis elegans infection model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rhonda L Feinbaum

    Full Text Available Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PA14 is an opportunistic human pathogen capable of infecting a wide range of organisms including the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We used a non-redundant transposon mutant library consisting of 5,850 clones corresponding to 75% of the total and approximately 80% of the non-essential PA14 ORFs to carry out a genome-wide screen for attenuation of PA14 virulence in C. elegans. We defined a functionally diverse 180 mutant set (representing 170 unique genes necessary for normal levels of virulence that included both known and novel virulence factors. Seven previously uncharacterized virulence genes (ABC transporters PchH and PchI, aminopeptidase PepP, ATPase/molecular chaperone ClpA, cold shock domain protein PA0456, putative enoyl-CoA hydratase/isomerase PA0745, and putative transcriptional regulator PA14_27700 were characterized with respect to pigment production and motility and all but one of these mutants exhibited pleiotropic defects in addition to their avirulent phenotype. We examined the collection of genes required for normal levels of PA14 virulence with respect to occurrence in P. aeruginosa strain-specific genomic regions, location on putative and known genomic islands, and phylogenetic distribution across prokaryotes. Genes predominantly contributing to virulence in C. elegans showed neither a bias for strain-specific regions of the P. aeruginosa genome nor for putatively horizontally transferred genomic islands. Instead, within the collection of virulence-related PA14 genes, there was an overrepresentation of genes with a broad phylogenetic distribution that also occur with high frequency in many prokaryotic clades, suggesting that in aggregate the genes required for PA14 virulence in C. elegans are biased towards evolutionarily conserved genes.

  11. Genome-wide identification of Pseudomonas aeruginosa virulence-related genes using a Caenorhabditis elegans infection model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feinbaum, Rhonda L; Urbach, Jonathan M; Liberati, Nicole T; Djonovic, Slavica; Adonizio, Allison; Carvunis, Anne-Ruxandra; Ausubel, Frederick M

    2012-01-01

    Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PA14 is an opportunistic human pathogen capable of infecting a wide range of organisms including the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We used a non-redundant transposon mutant library consisting of 5,850 clones corresponding to 75% of the total and approximately 80% of the non-essential PA14 ORFs to carry out a genome-wide screen for attenuation of PA14 virulence in C. elegans. We defined a functionally diverse 180 mutant set (representing 170 unique genes) necessary for normal levels of virulence that included both known and novel virulence factors. Seven previously uncharacterized virulence genes (ABC transporters PchH and PchI, aminopeptidase PepP, ATPase/molecular chaperone ClpA, cold shock domain protein PA0456, putative enoyl-CoA hydratase/isomerase PA0745, and putative transcriptional regulator PA14_27700) were characterized with respect to pigment production and motility and all but one of these mutants exhibited pleiotropic defects in addition to their avirulent phenotype. We examined the collection of genes required for normal levels of PA14 virulence with respect to occurrence in P. aeruginosa strain-specific genomic regions, location on putative and known genomic islands, and phylogenetic distribution across prokaryotes. Genes predominantly contributing to virulence in C. elegans showed neither a bias for strain-specific regions of the P. aeruginosa genome nor for putatively horizontally transferred genomic islands. Instead, within the collection of virulence-related PA14 genes, there was an overrepresentation of genes with a broad phylogenetic distribution that also occur with high frequency in many prokaryotic clades, suggesting that in aggregate the genes required for PA14 virulence in C. elegans are biased towards evolutionarily conserved genes.

  12. Advanced Wall Boiling Model with Wide Range Applicability for the Subcooled Boiling Flow and its Application into the CFD Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, B. J.; Song, C. H.; Splawski, A.; Lo, S.

    2010-01-01

    Subcooled boiling is one of the crucial phenomena for the design, operation and safety analysis of a nuclear power plant. It occurs due to the thermally nonequilibrium state in the two-phase heat transfer system. Many complicated phenomena such as a bubble generation, a bubble departure, a bubble growth, and a bubble condensation are created by this thermally nonequilibrium condition in the subcooled boiling flow. However, it has been revealed that most of the existing best estimate safety analysis codes have a weakness in the prediction of the subcooled boiling phenomena in which multi-dimensional flow behavior is dominant. In recent years, many investigators are trying to apply CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) codes for an accurate prediction of the subcooled boiling flow. In the CFD codes, evaporation heat flux from heated wall is one of the key parameters to be modeled for an accurate prediction of the subcooled boiling flow. The evaporate heat flux for the CFD codes is expressed typically as follows, q' e = πD 3 d /6 ρ g h fg fN' where, D d , f ,N' are bubble departure size, bubble departure frequency and active nucleation site density, respectively. In the most of the commercial CFD codes, Tolubinsky bubble departure size model, Kurul and Podowski active nucleation site density model and Ceumem-Lindenstjerna bubble departure frequency model are adopted as a basic wall boiling model. However, these models do not consider their dependency on the flow, pressure and fluid type. In this paper, an advanced wall boiling model was proposed in order to improve subcooled boiling model for the CFD codes

  13. FGWAS: Functional genome wide association analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chao; Thompson, Paul; Wang, Yalin; Yu, Yang; Zhang, Jingwen; Kong, Dehan; Colen, Rivka R; Knickmeyer, Rebecca C; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-10-01

    Functional phenotypes (e.g., subcortical surface representation), which commonly arise in imaging genetic studies, have been used to detect putative genes for complexly inherited neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. However, existing statistical methods largely ignore the functional features (e.g., functional smoothness and correlation). The aim of this paper is to develop a functional genome-wide association analysis (FGWAS) framework to efficiently carry out whole-genome analyses of functional phenotypes. FGWAS consists of three components: a multivariate varying coefficient model, a global sure independence screening procedure, and a test procedure. Compared with the standard multivariate regression model, the multivariate varying coefficient model explicitly models the functional features of functional phenotypes through the integration of smooth coefficient functions and functional principal component analysis. Statistically, compared with existing methods for genome-wide association studies (GWAS), FGWAS can substantially boost the detection power for discovering important genetic variants influencing brain structure and function. Simulation studies show that FGWAS outperforms existing GWAS methods for searching sparse signals in an extremely large search space, while controlling for the family-wise error rate. We have successfully applied FGWAS to large-scale analysis of data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative for 708 subjects, 30,000 vertices on the left and right hippocampal surfaces, and 501,584 SNPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Comparative studies of measured and estimated values of global solar radiation using Eppley pyranometer and Hargreaves Samani-model at Nsukka under varying climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anikpa, P.O.; Osuji, R.U.

    2005-12-01

    This study uses the Hargreaves and Samani (HS) modified model in estimating daily global solar radiation at Nsukka. The model equation was based on daily air temperature range and extraterrestrial solar radiation. The estimated results obtained for six months, staring from 25th August, 2003 to 20th February, 2004 were compared to measured values obtained with standard Eppley pyranometer. The measurements were taken manually within the same period. The comparison indicates that in the dry season months under consideration (December, 2003; January, 2004 and February, 2004) the model clearly gave higher insolation values of the daily global solar radiation. In the wet season months considered (i.e., part of August, 2003 through November, 2003) the model showed neither a clear pattern of higher nor a lower insolation. Further correlation analysis produced neither bias for the wet season nor dry season months. This indicates that on a monthly basis, the monthly average for estimated and measured values correlated well. (author)

  15. Olfactory learning without the mushroom bodies: Spiking neural network models of the honeybee lateral antennal lobe tract reveal its capacities in odour memory tasks of varied complexities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MaBouDi, HaDi; Shimazaki, Hideaki; Giurfa, Martin; Chittka, Lars

    2017-06-01

    The honeybee olfactory system is a well-established model for understanding functional mechanisms of learning and memory. Olfactory stimuli are first processed in the antennal lobe, and then transferred to the mushroom body and lateral horn through dual pathways termed medial and lateral antennal lobe tracts (m-ALT and l-ALT). Recent studies reported that honeybees can perform elemental learning by associating an odour with a reward signal even after lesions in m-ALT or blocking the mushroom bodies. To test the hypothesis that the lateral pathway (l-ALT) is sufficient for elemental learning, we modelled local computation within glomeruli in antennal lobes with axons of projection neurons connecting to a decision neuron (LHN) in the lateral horn. We show that inhibitory spike-timing dependent plasticity (modelling non-associative plasticity by exposure to different stimuli) in the synapses from local neurons to projection neurons decorrelates the projection neurons' outputs. The strength of the decorrelations is regulated by global inhibitory feedback within antennal lobes to the projection neurons. By additionally modelling octopaminergic modification of synaptic plasticity among local neurons in the antennal lobes and projection neurons to LHN connections, the model can discriminate and generalize olfactory stimuli. Although positive patterning can be accounted for by the l-ALT model, negative patterning requires further processing and mushroom body circuits. Thus, our model explains several-but not all-types of associative olfactory learning and generalization by a few neural layers of odour processing in the l-ALT. As an outcome of the combination between non-associative and associative learning, the modelling approach allows us to link changes in structural organization of honeybees' antennal lobes with their behavioural performances over the course of their life.

  16. A wide-angle gradient index optical model of the crystalline lens and eye of the octopus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, W S; Sands, P J

    1999-08-01

    Cephalopods and fish have had no common ancestor since the Cambrian, and their eyes are a classic example of convergent evolution. The octopus has no cornea, and immerson renders the trout cornea optically ineffective. As a result, the nearly spherical lens is responsible for all refraction in these eyes. In spite of the fact that the octopus lens consists of two joined parts, while the trout lens consists of one part, we show here that their optical properties are very similar. An index gradient bends rays within these lenses, adding power and correcting spherical aberration. High spherical symmetry in both lenses strongly reduces other monochromatic aberrations and yields a wide field of vision, advantageous in attack and evasion. The octopus Mattheissen's ratio, 2.83, an inverse measure of light-gathering power, lies above the trout value of 2.38 but within the range of values reported for fish. Strong uncorrected longitudinal chromatic aberration is nearly identical in both animals as a result of similar lens protein optical properties, and will limit resolution. We discuss how animal lifestyle requirements and lens material properties influence the design of these eyes.

  17. Concordant but Varied Phenotypes among Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patient-Specific Myoblasts Derived using a Human iPSC-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, In Young; Lim, HoTae; Estrellas, Kenneth; Mula, Jyothi; Cohen, Tatiana V; Zhang, Yuanfan; Donnelly, Christopher J; Richard, Jean-Philippe; Kim, Yong Jun; Kim, Hyesoo; Kazuki, Yasuhiro; Oshimura, Mitsuo; Li, Hongmei Lisa; Hotta, Akitsu; Rothstein, Jeffrey; Maragakis, Nicholas; Wagner, Kathryn R; Lee, Gabsang

    2016-06-07

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) remains an intractable genetic disease. Althogh there are several animal models of DMD, there is no human cell model that carries patient-specific DYSTROPHIN mutations. Here, we present a human DMD model using human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs). Our model reveals concordant disease-related phenotypes with patient-dependent variation, which are partially reversed by genetic and pharmacological approaches. Our "chemical-compound-based" strategy successfully directs hiPSCs into expandable myoblasts, which exhibit a myogenic transcriptional program, forming striated contractile myofibers and participating in muscle regeneration in vivo. DMD-hiPSC-derived myoblasts show disease-related phenotypes with patient-to-patient variability, including aberrant expression of inflammation or immune-response genes and collagens, increased BMP/TGFβ signaling, and reduced fusion competence. Furthermore, by genetic correction and pharmacological "dual-SMAD" inhibition, the DMD-hiPSC-derived myoblasts and genetically corrected isogenic myoblasts form "rescued" multi-nucleated myotubes. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a human "DMD-in-a-dish" model using hiPSC-based disease modeling. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Concordant but Varied Phenotypes among Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patient-Specific Myoblasts Derived using a Human iPSC-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Young Choi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD remains an intractable genetic disease. Althogh there are several animal models of DMD, there is no human cell model that carries patient-specific DYSTROPHIN mutations. Here, we present a human DMD model using human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs. Our model reveals concordant disease-related phenotypes with patient-dependent variation, which are partially reversed by genetic and pharmacological approaches. Our “chemical-compound-based” strategy successfully directs hiPSCs into expandable myoblasts, which exhibit a myogenic transcriptional program, forming striated contractile myofibers and participating in muscle regeneration in vivo. DMD-hiPSC-derived myoblasts show disease-related phenotypes with patient-to-patient variability, including aberrant expression of inflammation or immune-response genes and collagens, increased BMP/TGFβ signaling, and reduced fusion competence. Furthermore, by genetic correction and pharmacological “dual-SMAD” inhibition, the DMD-hiPSC-derived myoblasts and genetically corrected isogenic myoblasts form “rescued” multi-nucleated myotubes. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a human “DMD-in-a-dish” model using hiPSC-based disease modeling.

  19. Slice-based supine-to-standing posture deformation for chinese anatomical models and the dosimetric results with wide band frequency electromagnetic field exposure: Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, T.; Tan, L.; Shao, Q.; Li, Y.; Yang, L.; Zhao, C.; Xie, Y.; Zhang, S.

    2013-01-01

    Standing Chinese adult anatomical models are obtained from supine-postured cadaver slices. This paper presents the dosimetric differences between the supine and the standing postures over wide band frequencies and various incident configurations. Both the body level and the tissue/organ level differences are reported for plane wave and the 3T magnetic resonance imaging radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure. The influence of posture on the whole body specific absorption rate and tissue specified specific absorption rate values is discussed. . (authors)

  20. Modeling The Atmosphere In The Era Of Big Data From Extremely Wide Field-Of-View Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Quiles, Junellie; Nordin, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), Pan-STARRS and the Palomar Transient Factory Survey (PTF) receive large amounts of data, which need to be processed and calibrated in order to correct for various factors. One of the limiting factors in obtaining high quality data is the atmosphere, and it is therefore essential to find the appropriate calibration for the atmospheric extinction. It is to be expected that a physical atmospheric model, compared to a photometric calibration used currently by PTF, is more effective in calibrating for the atmospheric extinction due to its ability to account for rapid atmospheric fluctuation and objects of different colors. We focused on creating tools to model the atmospheric extinction for the upcoming Zwicky Transient Factory Survey (ZTF). In order to model the atmosphere, we created a program that combines input data and catalogue values, and efficiently handles them. Then, using PTF data and the SDSS catalogue, we created several models to fit the data, and tested the quality of the fits by chi-square minimization. This will allow us to optimize atmospheric extinction for the upcoming ZTF in the near future.

  1. Volumetric, viscometric, spectral studies and viscosity modelling of binary mixtures of esters and alcohols (diethyl succinate, or ethyl octanoate + isobutanol, or isopentanol) at varying temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majstorović, Divna M.; Živković, Emila M.; Matija, Lidija R.; Kijevčanin, Mirjana Lj.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Densitis and viscosities of four ester + alcohol binary mixtures were measured. • Excess and deviation functions were calculated. • Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy analysis was conducted. • Molecular interactions present in the mixture were analyzed. • Viscosity modelling was performed. - Abstract: Density, viscosity and refractive index of four binary mixtures consisting of diethyl succinate or ethyl octanoate + 2-methyl-1-propanol or 3-methyl-1-butanol have been measured at atmospheric pressure and over the temperature range from 288.15 K to 323.15 K. Excess and deviation functions have been calculated from these data and fitted to the Redlich-Kister equation. The values of excess molar volume and deviation functions, with FT-IR study, were further used in the analysis of molecular interactions present in the mixture as well as the temperature influence on them. Molar excess Gibbs free energies of activation of viscous flow were additionally calculated from measured density and viscosity data for better understanding of present molecular interactions. Viscosity modelling was done with two approaches, predictive by group contribution models (UNIFAC-VISCO and ASOG-VISCO), and correlative by one to three-parameter models (Teja-Rice, Grunberg–Nissan, McAlister, Eyring-UNIQUAC and Eyring-NRTL). The obtained results were compared with experimental data and conclusions about applied approaches and models were made.

  2. Estimate the time varying brain receptor occupancy in PET imaging experiments using non-linear fixed and mixed effect modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamuner, Stefano; Gomeni, Roberto; Bye, Alan

    2002-01-01

    Positron-Emission Tomography (PET) is an imaging technology currently used in drug development as a non-invasive measure of drug distribution and interaction with biochemical target system. The level of receptor occupancy achieved by a compound can be estimated by comparing time-activity measurements in an experiment done using tracer alone with the activity measured when the tracer is given following administration of unlabelled compound. The effective use of this surrogate marker as an enabling tool for drug development requires the definition of a model linking the brain receptor occupancy with the fluctuation of plasma concentrations. However, the predictive performance of such a model is strongly related to the precision on the estimate of receptor occupancy evaluated in PET scans collected at different times following drug treatment. Several methods have been proposed for the analysis and the quantification of the ligand-receptor interactions investigated from PET data. The aim of the present study is to evaluate alternative parameter estimation strategies based on the use of non-linear mixed effect models allowing to account for intra and inter-subject variability on the time-activity and for covariates potentially explaining this variability. A comparison of the different modeling approaches is presented using real data. The results of this comparison indicates that the mixed effect approach with a primary model partitioning the variance in term of Inter-Individual Variability (IIV) and Inter-Occasion Variability (IOV) and a second stage model relating the changes on binding potential to the dose of unlabelled drug is definitely the preferred approach

  3. European-wide simulations of present cropland phenology, productivity and carbon fluxes using an improved terrestrial biosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. C.; Ciais, P.; de Noblet, N.; Peylin, P.; Viovy, N.; Bondeau, A.

    2009-04-01

    Aiming at producing improved estimates of carbon source/sink spatial and interannual patterns across Europe (35% croplands), this work combines the terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (for vegetation productivity, water balance, soil carbon dynamics) and the generic crop model STICS (for phenology, irrigation, nitrogen balance, harvest). The ORCHIDEE-STICS model, relying on three plant functional types for the representation of temperate agriculture, is evaluated over the last few decades at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The simulated Leaf Area Index seasonal cycle is largely improved relative to the original ORCHIDEE simulating grasslands, and compares favourably with remote-sensing observations (the Figure of Merit in Time doubles over Europe). Crop yield is derived from annual Net Primary Productivity and compared with wheat and grain maize harvest data for five European countries. Discrepancies between 30-year mean simulated and reported yields remain large in Mediterranean countries. Interannual variability amplitude expressed relative to the mean is reduced towards the observed variability (~10%) when using ORCHIDEE-STICS. The simulated 2003 anomalous carbon source from European ecosystems to the atmosphere due to the 2003 summer heat wave is in good agreement with atmospheric inversions (~0.2 GtC, from May to October). The anomaly is twice as large in the ORCHIDEE alone simulation, owing to the unrealistically high exposure of herbaceous plants to the extreme summer conditions. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the specific phonologies of crops sown both in winter and in spring and for irrigation applied to summer crops in regional/global models of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Limitations suggest accounting for temporal and spatial variability in agricultural practices for further simulation improvement.

  4. Cycle Engine Modelling Of Spark Ignition Engine Processes during Wide-Open Throttle (WOT) Engine Operation Running By Gasoline Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahim, M F Abdul; Rahman, M M; Bakar, R A

    2012-01-01

    One-dimensional engine model is developed to simulate spark ignition engine processes in a 4-stroke, 4 cylinders gasoline engine. Physically, the baseline engine is inline cylinder engine with 3-valves per cylinder. Currently, the engine's mixture is formed by external mixture formation using piston-type carburettor. The model of the engine is based on one-dimensional equation of the gas exchange process, isentropic compression and expansion, progressive engine combustion process, and accounting for the heat transfer and frictional losses as well as the effect of valves overlapping. The model is tested for 2000, 3000 and 4000 rpm of engine speed and validated using experimental engine data. Results showed that the engine is able to simulate engine's combustion process and produce reasonable prediction. However, by comparing with experimental data, major discrepancy is noticeable especially on the 2000 and 4000 rpm prediction. At low and high engine speed, simulated cylinder pressures tend to under predict the measured data. Whereas the cylinder temperatures always tend to over predict the measured data at all engine speed. The most accurate prediction is obtained at medium engine speed of 3000 rpm. Appropriate wall heat transfer setup is vital for more precise calculation of cylinder pressure and temperature. More heat loss to the wall can lower cylinder temperature. On the hand, more heat converted to the useful work mean an increase in cylinder pressure. Thus, instead of wall heat transfer setup, the Wiebe combustion parameters are needed to be carefully evaluated for better results.

  5. Design of a Kaplan turbine for a wide range of operating head -Curved draft tube design and model test verification-

    Science.gov (United States)

    KO, Pohan; MATSUMOTO, Kiyoshi; OHTAKE, Norio; DING, Hua

    2016-11-01

    As for turbomachine off-design performance improvement is challenging but critical for maximising the performing area. In this paper, a curved draft tube for a medium head Kaplan type hydro turbine is introduced and discussed for its significant effect on expanding operating head range. Without adding any extra structure and working fluid for swirl destruction and damping, a carefully designed outline shape of draft tube with the selected placement of center-piers successfully supresses the growth of turbulence eddy and the transport of the swirl to the outlet. Also, more kinetic energy is recovered and the head lost is improved. Finally, the model test results are also presented. The obvious performance improvement was found in the lower net head area, where the maximum efficiency improvement was measured up to 20% without compromising the best efficiency point. Additionally, this design results in a new draft tube more compact in size and so leads to better construction and manufacturing cost performance for prototype. The draft tube geometry parameter designing process was concerning the best efficiency point together with the off-design points covering various water net heads and discharges. The hydraulic performance and flow behavior was numerically previewed and visualized by solving Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations with Shear Stress Transport turbulence model. The simulation was under the assumption of steady-state incompressible turbulence flow inside the flow passage, and the inlet boundary condition was the carefully simulated flow pattern from the runner outlet. For confirmation, the corresponding turbine efficiency performance of the entire operating area was verified by model test.

  6. Slice-based supine to standing postured deformation for chinese anatomical models and the dosimetric results by wide band frequency electromagnetic field exposure: Morphing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, T.; Tan, L.; Shao, Q.; Li, Y.; Yang, L.; Zhao, C.; Xie, Y.; Zhang, S.

    2013-01-01

    Digital human models are frequently obtained from supine-postured medical images or cadaver slices, but many applications require standing models. This paper presents the work of reconstructing standing Chinese adult anatomical models from supine postured slices. Apart from the previous studies, the deformation works on 2-D segmented slices. The surface profile of the standing posture is adjusted by population measurement data. A non-uniform texture amplification approach is applied on the 2-D slices to recover the skin contour and to redistribute the internal tissues. Internal organ shift due to postures is taken into account. The feet are modified by matrix rotation. Then, the supine and standing models are utilised for the evaluation of electromagnetic field exposure over wide band frequency and different incident directions. . (authors)

  7. Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

  8. Interpolating and Estimating Horizontal Diffuse Solar Irradiation to Provide UK-Wide Coverage: Selection of the Best Performing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane Palmer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Plane-of-array (PoA irradiation data is a requirement to simulate the energetic performance of photovoltaic devices (PVs. Normally, solar data is only available as global horizontal irradiation, for a limited number of locations, and typically in hourly time resolution. One approach to handling this restricted data is to enhance it initially by interpolation to the location of interest; next, it must be translated to PoA data by separately considering the diffuse and the beam components. There are many methods of interpolation. This research selects ordinary kriging as the best performing technique by studying mathematical properties, experimentation and leave-one-out-cross validation. Likewise, a number of different translation models has been developed, most of them parameterised for specific measurement setups and locations. The work presented identifies the optimum approach for the UK on a national scale. The global horizontal irradiation will be split into its constituent parts. Divers separation models were tried. The results of each separation algorithm were checked against measured data distributed across the UK. It became apparent that while there is little difference between procedures (14 Wh/m2 mean bias error (MBE, 12 Wh/m2 root mean square error (RMSE, the Ridley, Boland, Lauret equation (a universal split algorithm consistently performed well. The combined interpolation/separation RMSE is 86 Wh/m2.

  9. Development of a New Zealand SedNet model for assessment of catchment-wide soil-conservation works

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, John R.; Herzig, Alexander; Basher, Les; Betts, Harley D.; Marden, Mike; Phillips, Chris J.; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle E.; Palmer, David J.; Clark, Maree; Roygard, Jon

    2016-03-01

    Much hill country in New Zealand has been converted from indigenous forest to pastoral agriculture, resulting in increased soil erosion. Following a severe storm that hit the Manawatu-Wanaganui region in 2004 and caused 62,000 landslides, the Horizons Regional Council have implemented the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI), a programme of widespread soil conservation. We have developed a New Zealand version (SedNetNZ) of the Australian SedNet model to evaluate the impact of the SLUI programme in the 5850 km2 Manawatu catchment. SedNetNZ spatially distributes budgets of fine sediment in the landscape. It incorporates landslide, gully, earthflow erosion, surficial erosion, bank erosion, and flood-plain deposition, the important forms of soil erosion in New Zealand. Modelled suspended sediment loads compared well with measured suspended sediment loads with an R2 value of 0.85 after log transformation. A sensitivity analysis gave the uncertainty of estimated suspended sediment loads to be approximately plus or minus 50% (at the 95% confidence level). It is expected that by 2040, suspended sediment loads in targeted water management zones will decrease by about 40%. The expected decrease for the whole catchment is 34%. The expected reduction is due to maturity of tree planting on land at risk to soil erosion. The 34% reduction represents an annual rate of return of 20% on 20 million NZ of investment on soil conservation works through avoided damage to property and infrastructure and avoided clean-up costs.

  10. Development of generalized boiling transition model applicable for wide variety of fuel bundle geometries. Basic strategy and numerical approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ninokata, Hisashi; Sadatomi, Michio; Okawa, Tomio

    2003-01-01

    In order to establish a key technology to realize advanced BWR fuel designs, a three-year project of the advanced subchannel analysis code development had been started since 2002. The five dominant factors involved in the boiling transitional process in the fuel bundles were focused. They are, (1) inter-subchannel exchanges, (2) influences of obstacles (3) dryout of liquid film, (4) transition of two-phase flow regimes and (5) deposition of droplets. It has been recognized that present physical models or constitutive equations in subchannel formulations need to be improved so that they include geometrical effects in the fuel bundle design more mechanistically and universally. Through reviewing literatures and existent experimental results, underlying elementary processes and geometrical factors that are indispensable for improving subchannel codes were identified. The basic strategy that combines numerical and experimental approaches was proposed aiming at establishment of mechanistic models for the five dominant factors. In this paper, the present status of methodologies for detailed two-phase flow studies has been summarized. According to spatial scales of focused elementary processes, proper numerical approaches were selected. For some promising numerical approaches, preliminary calcitonins were performed for assessing their applicability to investigation of elementary processes involved in the boiling transition. (author)

  11. An advanced coarse-grained nucleosome core particle model for computer simulations of nucleosome-nucleosome interactions under varying ionic conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Fan

    Full Text Available In the eukaryotic cell nucleus, DNA exists as chromatin, a compact but dynamic complex with histone proteins. The first level of DNA organization is the linear array of nucleosome core particles (NCPs. The NCP is a well-defined complex of 147 bp DNA with an octamer of histones. Interactions between NCPs are of paramount importance for higher levels of chromatin compaction. The polyelectrolyte nature of the NCP implies that nucleosome-nucleosome interactions must exhibit a great influence from both the ionic environment as well as the positively charged and highly flexible N-terminal histone tails, protruding out from the NCP. The large size of the system precludes a modelling analysis of chromatin at an all-atom level and calls for coarse-grained approximations. Here, a model of the NCP that include the globular histone core and the flexible histone tails described by one particle per each amino acid and taking into account their net charge is proposed. DNA wrapped around the histone core was approximated at the level of two base pairs represented by one bead (bases and sugar plus four beads of charged phosphate groups. Computer simulations, using a Langevin thermostat, in a dielectric continuum with explicit monovalent (K(+, divalent (Mg(2+ or trivalent (Co(NH(3(6 (3+ cations were performed for systems with one or ten NCPs. Increase of the counterion charge results in a switch from repulsive NCP-NCP interaction in the presence of K(+, to partial aggregation with Mg(2+ and to strong mutual attraction of all 10 NCPs in the presence of CoHex(3+. The new model reproduced experimental results and the structure of the NCP-NCP contacts is in agreement with available data. Cation screening, ion-ion correlations and tail bridging contribute to the NCP-NCP attraction and the new NCP model accounts for these interactions.

  12. The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Drew Creal; Siem Jan Koopman; Eric Zivot

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition model that accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an unobserved components ...

  13. Modeling precipitation thermodynamics and kinetics in type 316 austenitic stainless steels with varying composition as an initial step toward predicting phase stability during irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Jae-Hyeok, E-mail: jhshim@kist.re.kr [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); High Temperature Energy Materials Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul 136-791 (Korea, Republic of); Povoden-Karadeniz, Erwin [Christian Doppler Laboratory for Early Stages of Precipitation, Vienna University of Technology, A-1040 Vienna (Austria); Kozeschnik, Ernst [Institute of Materials Science and Technology, Vienna University of Technology, A-1040 Vienna (Austria); Wirth, Brian D. [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2015-07-15

    Highlights: • We model the precipitation kinetics in irradiated 316 austenitic stainless steels. • Radiation-induced phases are predicted to form at over 10 dpa segregation conditions. • The Si content is the most critical for the formation of radiation-induced phases. - Abstract: The long-term evolution of precipitates in type 316 austenitic stainless steels at 400 °C has been simulated using a numerical model based on classical nucleation theory and the thermodynamic extremum principle. Particular attention has been paid to the precipitation of radiation-induced phases such as γ′ and G phases. In addition to the original compositions, the compositions for radiation-induced segregation at a dose level of 5, 10 or 20 dpa have been used in the simulation. In a 316 austenitic stainless steel, γ′ appears as the main precipitate with a small amount of G phase forming at 10 and 20 dpa. On the other hand, G phase becomes relatively dominant over γ′ at the same dose levels in a Ti-stabilized 316 austenitic stainless steel, which tends to suppress the formation of γ′. Among the segregated alloying elements, the concentration of Si seems to be the most critical for the formation of radiation-induced phases. An increase in dislocation density as well as increased diffusivity of Mn and Si significantly enhances the precipitation kinetics of the radiation-induced phases within this model.

  14. Varying constants, black holes, and quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlip, S.

    2003-01-01

    Tentative observations and theoretical considerations have recently led to renewed interest in models of fundamental physics in which certain 'constants' vary in time. Assuming fixed black hole mass and the standard form of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, Davies, Davis and Lineweaver have argued that the laws of black hole thermodynamics disfavor models in which the fundamental electric charge e changes. I show that with these assumptions, similar considerations severely constrain 'varying speed of light' models, unless we are prepared to abandon cherished assumptions about quantum gravity. Relaxation of these assumptions permits sensible theories of quantum gravity with ''varying constants,'' but also eliminates the thermodynamic constraints, though the black hole mass spectrum may still provide some restrictions on the range of allowable models

  15. Vesicle biomechanics in a time-varying magnetic field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hui; Curcuru, Austen

    2015-01-01

    Cells exhibit distortion when exposed to a strong electric field, suggesting that the field imposes control over cellular biomechanics. Closed pure lipid bilayer membranes (vesicles) have been widely used for the experimental and theoretical studies of cellular biomechanics under this electrodeformation. An alternative method used to generate an electric field is by electromagnetic induction with a time-varying magnetic field. References reporting the magnetic control of cellular mechanics have recently emerged. However, theoretical analysis of the cellular mechanics under a time-varying magnetic field is inadequate. We developed an analytical theory to investigate the biomechanics of a modeled vesicle under a time-varying magnetic field. Following previous publications and to simplify the calculation, this model treated the inner and suspending media as lossy dielectrics, the membrane thickness set at zero, and the electric resistance of the membrane assumed to be negligible. This work provided the first analytical solutions for the surface charges, electric field, radial pressure, overall translational forces, and rotational torques introduced on a vesicle by the time-varying magnetic field. Frequency responses of these measures were analyzed, particularly the frequency used clinically by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The induced surface charges interacted with the electric field to produce a biomechanical impact upon the vesicle. The distribution of the induced surface charges depended on the orientation of the coil and field frequency. The densities of these charges were trivial at low frequency ranges, but significant at high frequency ranges. The direction of the radial force on the vesicle was dependent on the conductivity ratio between the vesicle and the medium. At relatively low frequencies (biomechanics under a time-varying magnetic field. Biological effects of clinical TMS are not likely to occur via alteration of the biomechanics of brain

  16. Solutions of the Two-Dimensional Hubbard Model: Benchmarks and Results from a Wide Range of Numerical Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerical results for ground-state and excited-state properties (energies, double occupancies, and Matsubara-axis self-energies of the single-orbital Hubbard model on a two-dimensional square lattice are presented, in order to provide an assessment of our ability to compute accurate results in the thermodynamic limit. Many methods are employed, including auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo, bare and bold-line diagrammatic Monte Carlo, method of dual fermions, density matrix embedding theory, density matrix renormalization group, dynamical cluster approximation, diffusion Monte Carlo within a fixed-node approximation, unrestricted coupled cluster theory, and multireference projected Hartree-Fock methods. Comparison of results obtained by different methods allows for the identification of uncertainties and systematic errors. The importance of extrapolation to converged thermodynamic-limit values is emphasized. Cases where agreement between different methods is obtained establish benchmark results that may be useful in the validation of new approaches and the improvement of existing methods.

  17. Analysing the economy-wide effects of the energy tax: results for Australia from the ORANI-E model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDougall, R.A.; Dixon, P.B. [Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC (Australia); Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    1996-12-31

    Since the mid 1980s, economists have devoted considerable effort to greenhouse issues. Among the questions to which they have sought answers were what would be the effects on economic growth and employment of adopting different approaches to restricting greenhouse gas emissions, and what are the distributional effects of restricting greenhouse gas emissions, i.e. how would income and economic activity be re-allocated between countries, between industries, and between income classes. One approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to impose taxes on the use of fossil fuels. Such a policy might, however, cause short-run economic disruption. This issues is investigated for Australia using a general equilibrium model, ORANI-E. The short-run effects of an energy tax are shown to depend on what is done with the tax revenue, how the labour market reacts, and on substitution possibilities between energy, capital and labour. Overall, the results indicate that energy taxes need not be damaging to the macro-economy. (author). 5 tabs., 2 figs., refs.

  18. Genome-wide association study to identify potential genetic modifiers in a canine model for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkmeyer-Langford, Candice; Balog-Alvarez, Cynthia; Cai, James J; Davis, Brian W; Kornegay, Joe N

    2016-08-22

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes progressive muscle degeneration, cardiomyopathy and respiratory failure in approximately 1/5,000 boys. Golden Retriever muscular dystrophy (GRMD) resembles DMD both clinically and pathologically. Like DMD, GRMD exhibits remarkable phenotypic variation among affected dogs, suggesting the influence of modifiers. Understanding the role(s) of genetic modifiers of GRMD may identify genes and pathways that also modify phenotypes in DMD and reveal novel therapies. Therefore, our objective in this study was to identify genetic modifiers that affect discrete GRMD phenotypes. We performed a linear mixed-model (LMM) analysis using 16 variably-affected dogs from our GRMD colony (8 dystrophic, 8 non-dystrophic). All of these dogs were either full or half-siblings, and phenotyped for 19 objective, quantitative biomarkers at ages 6 and 12 months. Each biomarker was individually assessed. Gene expression profiles of 59 possible candidate genes were generated for two muscle types: the cranial tibialis and medial head of the gastrocnemius. SNPs significantly associated with GRMD biomarkers were identified on multiple chromosomes (including the X chromosome). Gene expression levels for candidate genes located near these SNPs correlated with biomarker values, suggesting possible roles as GRMD modifiers. The results of this study enhance our understanding of GRMD pathology and represent a first step toward the characterization of GRMD modifiers that may be relevant to DMD pathology. Such modifiers are likely to be useful for DMD treatment development based on their relationships to GRMD phenotypes.

  19. The time-dependent coupled oscillator model for the motion of a charged particle in the presence of a time-varying magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menouar, Salah; Maamache, Mustapha; Choi, Jeong Ryeol

    2010-01-01

    The dynamics of the time-dependent coupled oscillator model for the motion of a charged particle subjected to a time-dependent external magnetic field is investigated. We use the canonical transformation approach for the classical treatment of the system, whereas the unitary transformation approach is used in managing the system in the framework of quantum mechanics. For both approaches, the original system is transformed into a much more simple system that is the sum of two independent harmonic oscillators with time-dependent frequencies. We therefore easily identify the wavefunctions in the transformed system with the help of an invariant operator of the system. The full wavefunctions in the original system are derived from the inverse unitary transformation of the wavefunctions associated with the transformed system.

  20. Genome-wide analysis of intraspecific DNA polymorphism in 'Micro-Tom', a model cultivar of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Masaaki; Nagasaki, Hideki; Garcia, Virginie; Just, Daniel; Bres, Cécile; Mauxion, Jean-Philippe; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Brunel, Dominique; Suda, Kunihiro; Minakuchi, Yohei; Toyoda, Atsushi; Fujiyama, Asao; Toyoshima, Hiromi; Suzuki, Takayuki; Igarashi, Kaori; Rothan, Christophe; Kaminuma, Eli; Nakamura, Yasukazu; Yano, Kentaro; Aoki, Koh

    2014-02-01

    Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) is regarded as a model plant of the Solanaceae family. The genome sequencing of the tomato cultivar 'Heinz 1706' was recently completed. To accelerate the progress of tomato genomics studies, systematic bioresources, such as mutagenized lines and full-length cDNA libraries, have been established for the cultivar 'Micro-Tom'. However, these resources cannot be utilized to their full potential without the completion of the genome sequencing of 'Micro-Tom'. We undertook the genome sequencing of 'Micro-Tom' and here report the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (indels) between 'Micro-Tom' and 'Heinz 1706'. The analysis demonstrated the presence of 1.23 million SNPs and 0.19 million indels between the two cultivars. The density of SNPs and indels was high in chromosomes 2, 5 and 11, but was low in chromosomes 6, 8 and 10. Three known mutations of 'Micro-Tom' were localized on chromosomal regions where the density of SNPs and indels was low, which was consistent with the fact that these mutations were relatively new and introgressed into 'Micro-Tom' during the breeding of this cultivar. We also report SNP analysis for two 'Micro-Tom' varieties that have been maintained independently in Japan and France, both of which have served as standard lines for 'Micro-Tom' mutant collections. Approximately 28,000 SNPs were identified between these two 'Micro-Tom' lines. These results provide high-resolution DNA polymorphic information on 'Micro-Tom' and represent a valuable contribution to the 'Micro-Tom'-based genomics resources.

  1. The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

    2009-11-19

    To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product ( pound8.4bn to pound16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% ( pound55.5bn to pound72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product ( pound2.2bn to pound38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% ( pound5.0bn to pound72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Balancing school closure against "business as usual" and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

  2. Use of Aquacrop Model to predict Maize Yields under Varying Rainfall and Temperature in a Semi-Arid Environment in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wamari, O. J.; Sijali, V. I; Heng, N. K; Joseph Mutwiri Miriti, M. J; Esilaba, O A

    2012-01-01

    There has been increasing concern that drier and hotter seasons are becoming more frequent due to climate change especially in semi-arid environments causing adverse effects on agricultural production. Analysis of long-term (1980-2010) trends of rainfall in the first growing season (i.e. March and July) at Katumani, Kenya showed that about 55% of the seasons were below the long-term average, with an all time low occurring in the year 2000. Although the wettest years (1998 and 1985 ) had relatively higher percentages above the long-term average (143.9% and 138.4% ) compared to lower percentages ( 61.7% and 59.7%) of the driest years ( 2000 and 1987), the latter were relatively less in numbers (i.e. 45%). Mean seasonal temperatures however did not show high variation from the long term mean implying that rainfall was the main cause of yield variation in this area. The AquaCrop model (Ver. 3.1) evaluated using three years (i.e. 1999, 2000 and 2001) of experimental results at Katumani, gave reasonable estimates of above ground biomass and grain yield of Katumani composite maize variety. The model was then used to predict Katumani maize yields under 20% depletion of rainfall and 3°C temperature elevation scenarios. Biomass and grain yields simulated respectively ranged between 2.971 to 6.558 and 0.910 to 2.564 T Ha-1 with probabilities of obtaining 3-5 T Ha-1 biomass and 1-2 T Ha-1 grain yields each dropping from 98 to 25%. Adaptation measures are given as management recommendations in line with the changed climatic scenario. (author)

  3. A Lakatosian Conceptual Change Teaching Strategy Based on Student Ability to Build Models with Varying Degrees of Conceptual Understanding of Chemical Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niaz, M.

    The main objective of this study is to construct a Lakatosian teaching strategy that can facilitate conceptual change in students'' understanding of chemical equilibrium. The strategy is based on the premise that cognitive conflicts must have been engendered by the students themselves in trying to cope with different problem solving strategies. Results obtained (based on Venezuelan freshman students) show that the performance of the experimental group of students was generally better (especially on the immediate post tests) than that of the control group. It is concluded that a conceptual change teaching strategy must take into consideration the following aspects: a) core beliefs of the students in the topic (cf. ''hard core'', Lakatos 1970); b) exploration of the relationship between core beliefs and student alternative conceptions (misconceptions); c) cognitive complexity of the core belief can be broken down into a series of related and probing questions; d) students resist changes in their core beliefs by postulating ''auxiliary hypotheses'' in order to resolve their contradictions; e) students'' responses based on their alternative conceptions must be considered not as wrong, but rather as models, perhaps in the same sense as used by scientists to break the complexity of a problem; and f) students'' misconceptions be considered as alternative conceptions (theories) that compete with the present scientific theories and at times recapitulate theories scientists held in the past.

  4. Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peabody, Hume; Guerrero, Sergio; Hawk, John; Rodriguez, Juan; McDonald, Carson; Jackson, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

  5. A plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations and ion speciation/pairing in wastewater treatment process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores Alsina, Xavier; Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Solon, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    at different cationic/anionic loads. In this way, the general applicability/flexibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated, by implementing the aqueous phase chemistry module in some of the most frequently used WWTP process simulation models. Finally, it is shown how traditional wastewater modelling......, but unavoidable, additional degree of complexity when representing cationic/anionic behaviour in Activated Sludge (AS)/Anaerobic Digestion (AD) systems. In this paper, a plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations plus ion speciation/pairing is presented and interfaced with industry......) in order to reduce the overall stiffness of the system, thereby enhancing simulation speed. Additionally, a multi-dimensional version of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to handle the existing multiple algebraic inter-dependencies. The latter is reinforced with the Simulated Annealing method...

  6. A plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations and ion speciation/pairing in wastewater treatment process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Solon, Kimberly; Vrecko, Darko; Tait, Stephan; Batstone, Damien J; Jeppsson, Ulf; Gernaey, Krist V

    2015-11-15

    There is a growing interest within the Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) modelling community to correctly describe physico-chemical processes after many years of mainly focusing on biokinetics. Indeed, future modelling needs, such as a plant-wide phosphorus (P) description, require a major, but unavoidable, additional degree of complexity when representing cationic/anionic behaviour in Activated Sludge (AS)/Anaerobic Digestion (AD) systems. In this paper, a plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations plus ion speciation/pairing is presented and interfaced with industry standard models. The module accounts for extensive consideration of non-ideality, including ion activities instead of molar concentrations and complex ion pairing. The general equilibria are formulated as a set of Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) instead of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) in order to reduce the overall stiffness of the system, thereby enhancing simulation speed. Additionally, a multi-dimensional version of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to handle the existing multiple algebraic inter-dependencies. The latter is reinforced with the Simulated Annealing method to increase the robustness of the solver making the system not so dependent of the initial conditions. Simulation results show pH predictions when describing Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) by the activated sludge models (ASM) 1, 2d and 3 comparing the performance of a nitrogen removal (WWTP1) and a combined nitrogen and phosphorus removal (WWTP2) treatment plant configuration under different anaerobic/anoxic/aerobic conditions. The same framework is implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) version of the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) (WWTP3) as well, predicting pH values at different cationic/anionic loads. In this way, the general applicability/flexibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated, by implementing the aqueous phase chemistry module in some

  7. Human immunophenotyping via low-variance, low-bias, interpretive regression modeling of small, wide data sets: Application to aging and immune response to influenza vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Tyson H; He, Xiao-Song

    2016-10-01

    Small, wide data sets are commonplace in human immunophenotyping research. As defined here, a small, wide data set is constructed by sampling a small to modest quantity n,1small, wide data sets. These prescriptions are distinctive in their especially heavy emphasis on minimizing the use of out-of-sample information for conducting statistical inference. This allows the working immunologist to proceed without being encumbered by imposed and often untestable statistical assumptions. Problems of unmeasured confounders, confidence-interval coverage, feature selection, and shrinkage/denoising are defined clearly and treated in detail. We propose an extension of an existing nonparametric technique for improved small-sample confidence-interval tail coverage from the univariate case (single immune feature) to the multivariate (many, possibly correlated immune features). An important role for derived features in the immunological interpretation of regression analyses is stressed. Areas of further research are discussed. Presented principles and methods are illustrated through application to a small, wide data set of adults spanning a wide range in ages and multiple immunophenotypes that were assayed before and after immunization with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Our regression modeling prescriptions identify some potentially important topics for future immunological research. 1) Immunologists may wish to distinguish age-related differences in immune features from changes in immune features caused by aging. 2) A form of the bootstrap that employs linear extrapolation may prove to be an invaluable analytic tool because it allows the working immunologist to obtain accurate estimates of the stability of immune parameter estimates with a bare minimum of imposed assumptions. 3) Liberal inclusion of immune features in phenotyping panels can facilitate accurate separation of biological signal of interest from noise. In addition, through a combination of denoising and

  8. Comparison of community-wide, integrated mass drug administration strategies for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis: a cost-effectiveness modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Nathan C; Bogoch, Isaac I; Blackburn, Brian G; Raso, Giovanna; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Coulibaly, Jean T; Becker, Sören L; Abrams, Howard B; Utzinger, Jürg; Andrews, Jason R

    2015-10-01

    More than 1·5 billion people are affected by schistosomiasis or soil-transmitted helminthiasis. WHO's recommendations for mass drug administration (MDA) against these parasitic infections emphasise treatment of school-aged children, using separate treatment guidelines for these two helminthiases groups. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of expanding integrated MDA to the entire community in four settings in Côte d'Ivoire. We extended previously published, dynamic, age-structured models of helminthiases transmission to simulate costs and disability averted with integrated MDA (of praziquantel and albendazole) for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We calibrated the model to data for prevalence and intensity of species-specific helminth infection from surveys undertaken in four communities in Côte d'Ivoire between March, 1997, and September, 2010. We simulated a 15-year treatment programme with 75% coverage in only school-aged children; school-aged children and preschool-aged children; adults; and the entire community. Treatment costs were estimated at US$0·74 for school-aged children and $1·74 for preschool-aged children and adults. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in 2014 US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Expanded community-wide treatment was highly cost effective compared with treatment of only school-aged children (ICER $167 per DALY averted) and WHO guidelines (ICER $127 per DALY averted), and remained highly cost effective even if treatment costs for preschool-aged children and adults were ten times greater than those for school-aged children. Community-wide treatment remained highly cost effective even when elimination of helminth infections was not achieved. These findings were robust across the four diverse communities in Côte d'Ivoire, only one of which would have received annual MDA for both schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis under the latest WHO

  9. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest productivity – Part 1: Model calibration, evaluation and upscaling functions for canopy photosynthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Mercado

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to parameterize and validate ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. In this study, a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model is calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites using eddy correlation measurements of carbon and energy fluxes.

    Results from the model-data evaluation suggest that with adequate parameterisation, photosynthesis models taking into account the separation of diffuse and direct irradiance and the dynamics of sunlit and shaded leaves can accurately represent photosynthesis in these forests. Also, stomatal conductance formulations that only take into account atmospheric demand fail to correctly simulate moisture and CO2 fluxes in forests with a pronounced dry season, particularly during afternoon conditions. Nevertheless, it is also the case that large uncertainties are associated not only with the eddy correlation data, but also with the estimates of ecosystem respiration required for model validation. To accurately simulate Gross Primary Productivity (GPP and energy partitioning the most critical parameters and model processes are the quantum yield of photosynthetic uptake, the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco, and simulation of stomatal conductance.

    Using this model-data synergy, we developed scaling functions to provide estimates of canopy photosynthetic parameters for a range of diverse forests across the Amazon region, utilising the best fitted parameter for maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco, and foliar nutrients (N and P for all sites.

  10. A framework to identify Pareto-efficient subdaily environmental flow constraints on hydropower reservoirs using a grid-wide power dispatch model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivares, Marcelo A.; Haas, Jannik; Palma-Behnke, Rodrigo; Benavides, Carlos

    2015-05-01

    Hydrologic alteration due to hydropeaking reservoir operations is a main concern worldwide. Subdaily environmental flow constraints (ECs) on operations can be promising alternatives for mitigating negative impacts. However, those constraints reduce the flexibility of hydropower plants, potentially with higher costs for the power system. To study the economic and environmental efficiency of ECs, this work proposes a novel framework comprising four steps: (i) assessment of the current subdaily hydrologic alteration; (ii) formulation and implementation of a short-term, grid-wide hydrothermal coordination model; (iii) design of ECs in the form of maximum ramping rates (MRRs) and minimum flows (MIFs) for selected hydropower reservoirs; and (iv) identification of Pareto-efficient solutions in terms of grid-wide costs and the Richard-Baker flashiness index for subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA). The framework was applied to Chile's main power grid, assessing 25 EC cases, involving five MIFs and five MRRs. Each case was run for a dry, normal, and wet water year type. Three Pareto-efficient ECs are found, with remarkably small cost increase below 2% and a SDHA improvement between 28% and 90%. While the case involving the highest MIF worsens the flashiness of another basin, the other two have no negative effect on other basins and can be recommended for implementation.

  11. Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models Grau de multicolinearidade e variáveis envolvidas na dependência linear em modelos aditivo-dominantes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Petrini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567, yearling weight (n=58,124, and scrotal circumference (n=20,371 of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o grau de multicolinearidade e identificar as variáveis envolvidas na dependência linear em modelos aditivo-dominantes. Foram utilizados dados de peso ao nascimento (n=141.567, peso ao ano (n=58.124 e perímetro escrotal (n=20.371 de bovinos de corte compostos Montana Tropical. O diagnóstico de multicolinearidade foi baseado no fator de inflação de variância (VIF e no exame dos índices de condição e dos autovalores da matriz de correlações entre as variáveis explanatórias. O primeiro modelo estudado (RM incluiu o efeito fixo de classe de idade da mãe ao parto e

  12. Crustal structure variations along the NW-African continental margin: a comparison of new and existing models from wide angle and reflection seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biari, Y.; Klingelhoefer, F.; Sahabi, M.; Aslanian, D.; Philippe, S.; Louden, K. E.; Berglar, K.; Moulin, M.; Mehdi, K.; Graindorge, D.; Evain, M.; Benabellouahed, M.; Reichert, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Deep seismic data represent a key to understand the geometry and mechanism of continental rifting. The passive continental margin of NW-Africa is one of the oldest on earth, formed during the Upper Triassic-Lower Liassic rifting of the central Atlantic Ocean over 200 Ma. We present new and existing wide-angle and reflection seismic data from three study regions along the margin located in the North Moroccan salt basin, on the central continental margin offshore Safi and in the south, offshore Dakhla. In each of the study areas several combined wide-angle and reflection seismic profiles perpendicular and parallel to the margin have been acquired and forward modelled using comparable methods. The thickness of unthinned continental crust decreases from 36 km in the North to about 27 km in the South. In the North Moroccan Basin continental crust thins from originally 36 km to about 8 km in a 150 km wide zone. The basin itself is underlain by highly thinned continental crust. Offshore safi thinning of the continental crust is confined to a 130 km wide zone with no neighboring sedimentary basin underlain by continental crust. In both areas the zone of crustal thinning is characterised by the presence of large blocks and abundant salt diapirs. In the south crustal thinning is more rapid in a zone of 90 km and asymmetric with the upper crust thinning more closely to the continent than the lower crust, probably due to depth-dependent stretching and the presence of the precambrian Reguibat Ridge on land. Oceanic crust is characterised by a thickness of 7-8 km along the complete margin. Relatively high velocities of up to 7.5 km/s have been imaged between magnetic anomalies S1 and M25, and are probably related to changes in the spreading velocities at the time of the Kimmeridgian/Tithonian plate reorganisation. Volcanic activity seems to be confined to the region next to the Canary Islands, and is thus not related to the initial opening of the oceanic, which was related to no

  13. Genome-wide investigation and expression analyses of WD40 protein family in the model plant foxtail millet (Setaria italica L..

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Awdhesh Kumar Mishra

    Full Text Available WD40 proteins play a crucial role in diverse protein-protein interactions by acting as scaffolding molecules and thus assisting in the proper activity of proteins. Hence, systematic characterization and expression profiling of these WD40 genes in foxtail millet would enable us to understand the networks of WD40 proteins and their biological processes and gene functions. In the present study, a genome-wide survey was conducted and 225 potential WD40 genes were identified. Phylogenetic analysis categorized the WD40 proteins into 5 distinct sub-families (I-V. Gene Ontology annotation revealed the biological roles of the WD40 proteins along with its cellular components and molecular functions. In silico comparative mapping with sorghum, maize and rice demonstrated the orthologous relationships and chromosomal rearrangements including duplication, inversion and deletion of WD40 genes. Estimation of synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates revealed its evolutionary significance in terms of gene-duplication and divergence. Expression profiling against abiotic stresses provided novel insights into specific and/or overlapping expression patterns of SiWD40 genes. Homology modeling enabled three-dimensional structure prediction was performed to understand the molecular functions of WD40 proteins. Although, recent findings had shown the importance of WD40 domains in acting as hubs for cellular networks during many biological processes, it has invited a lesser research attention unlike other common domains. Being a most promiscuous interactors, WD40 domains are versatile in mediating critical cellular functions and hence this genome-wide study especially in the model crop foxtail millet would serve as a blue-print for functional characterization of WD40s in millets and bioenergy grass species. In addition, the present analyses would also assist the research community in choosing the candidate WD40s for comprehensive studies towards crop improvement

  14. Genome-wide investigation and expression analyses of WD40 protein family in the model plant foxtail millet (Setaria italica L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Awdhesh Kumar; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Khan, Yusuf; Parida, Swarup Kumar; Prasad, Manoj

    2014-01-01

    WD40 proteins play a crucial role in diverse protein-protein interactions by acting as scaffolding molecules and thus assisting in the proper activity of proteins. Hence, systematic characterization and expression profiling of these WD40 genes in foxtail millet would enable us to understand the networks of WD40 proteins and their biological processes and gene functions. In the present study, a genome-wide survey was conducted and 225 potential WD40 genes were identified. Phylogenetic analysis categorized the WD40 proteins into 5 distinct sub-families (I-V). Gene Ontology annotation revealed the biological roles of the WD40 proteins along with its cellular components and molecular functions. In silico comparative mapping with sorghum, maize and rice demonstrated the orthologous relationships and chromosomal rearrangements including duplication, inversion and deletion of WD40 genes. Estimation of synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates revealed its evolutionary significance in terms of gene-duplication and divergence. Expression profiling against abiotic stresses provided novel insights into specific and/or overlapping expression patterns of SiWD40 genes. Homology modeling enabled three-dimensional structure prediction was performed to understand the molecular functions of WD40 proteins. Although, recent findings had shown the importance of WD40 domains in acting as hubs for cellular networks during many biological processes, it has invited a lesser research attention unlike other common domains. Being a most promiscuous interactors, WD40 domains are versatile in mediating critical cellular functions and hence this genome-wide study especially in the model crop foxtail millet would serve as a blue-print for functional characterization of WD40s in millets and bioenergy grass species. In addition, the present analyses would also assist the research community in choosing the candidate WD40s for comprehensive studies towards crop improvement of millets and

  15. Eestlased Karlovy Varys / J. R.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    J. R.

    2007-01-01

    Ilmar Raagi mängufilm "Klass" osaleb 42. Karlovy Vary rahvusvahelise filmifestivali võistlusprogrammis "East of the West" ja Asko Kase lühimängufilm "Zen läbi prügi" on valitud festivali kõrvalprogrammi "Forum of Independents"

  16. Esmaklassiline Karlovy Vary / Jaanus Noormets

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Noormets, Jaanus

    2007-01-01

    Ilmar Raagi mängufilm "Klass" võitis 42. Karlovy Vary rahvusvahelise filmifestivalil kaks auhinda - ametliku kõrvalvõistlusprogrammi "East of the West" eripreemia "Special mention" ja Euroopa väärtfilmikinode keti Europa Cinemas preemia. Ka Asko Kase lühifilmi "Zen läbi prügi linastumisest ning teistest auhinnasaajatest ning osalejatest

  17. Optimistlik Karlovy Vary / Jaan Ruus

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Ruus, Jaan, 1938-2017

    2007-01-01

    42. Karlovy Vary rahvusvahelise filmifestivali auhinnatud filmidest (žürii esimees Peter Bart). Kristallgloobuse sai Islandi-Saksamaa "Katseklaasilinn" (režii Baltasar Kormakur), parimaks režissööriks tunnistati norralane Bard Breien ("Negatiivse mõtlemise kunst"). Austraallase Michael James Rowlandi "Hea õnne teekond" sai žürii eripreemia

  18. Modelos de regressão aleatória com diferentes estruturas de variância residual para descrever o tamanho da leitegada Random regression models with different residual variance structures for describing litter size in swine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderbal Cavalcante-Neto

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se comparar modelos de regressão aleatória com diferentes estruturas de variância residual, a fim de se buscar a melhor modelagem para a característica tamanho da leitegada ao nascer (TLN. Utilizaram-se 1.701 registros de TLN, que foram analisados por meio de modelo animal, unicaracterística, de regressão aleatória. As regressões fixa e aleatórias foram representadas por funções contínuas sobre a ordem de parto, ajustadas por polinômios ortogonais de Legendre de ordem 3. Para averiguar a melhor modelagem para a variância residual, considerou-se a heterogeneidade de variância por meio de 1 a 7 classes de variância residual. O modelo geral de análise incluiu grupo de contemporâneo como efeito fixo; os coeficientes de regressão fixa para modelar a trajetória média da população; os coeficientes de regressão aleatória do efeito genético aditivo-direto, do comum-de-leitegada e do de ambiente permanente de animal; e o efeito aleatório residual. O teste da razão de verossimilhança, o critério de informação de Akaike e o critério de informação bayesiano de Schwarz apontaram o modelo que considerou homogeneidade de variância como o que proporcionou melhor ajuste aos dados utilizados. As herdabilidades obtidas foram próximas a zero (0,002 a 0,006. O efeito de ambiente permanente foi crescente da 1ª (0,06 à 5ª (0,28 ordem, mas decrescente desse ponto até a 7ª ordem (0,18. O comum-de-leitegada apresentou valores baixos (0,01 a 0,02. A utilização de homogeneidade de variância residual foi mais adequada para modelar as variâncias associadas à característica tamanho da leitegada ao nascer nesse conjunto de dado.The objective of this work was to compare random regression models with different residual variance structures, so as to obtain the best modeling for the trait litter size at birth (LSB in swine. One thousand, seven hundred and one records of LSB were analyzed. LSB was analyzed by means of a

  19. Impacts of population structure and analytical models in genome-wide association studies of complex traits in forest trees: a case study in Eucalyptus globulus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo P Cappa

    Full Text Available The promise of association genetics to identify genes or genomic regions controlling complex traits has generated a flurry of interest. Such phenotype-genotype associations could be useful to accelerate tree breeding cycles, increase precision and selection intensity for late expressing, low heritability traits. However, the prospects of association genetics in highly heterozygous undomesticated forest trees can be severely impacted by the presence of cryptic population and pedigree structure. To investigate how to better account for this, we compared the GLM and five combinations of the Unified Mixed Model ( UMM on data of a low-density genome-wide association study for growth and wood property traits carried out in a Eucalyptus globulus population (n = 303 with 7,680 Diversity Array Technology (DArT markers. Model comparisons were based on the degree of deviation from the uniform distribution and estimates of the mean square differences between the observed and expected p-values of all significant marker-trait associations detected. Our analysis revealed the presence of population and family structure. There was not a single best model for all traits. Striking differences in detection power and accuracy were observed among the different models especially when population structure was not accounted for. The UMM method was the best and produced superior results when compared to GLM for all traits. Following stringent correction for false discoveries, 18 marker-trait associations were detected, 16 for tree diameter growth and two for lignin monomer composition (S:G ratio, a key wood property trait. The two DArT markers associated with S:G ratio on chromosome 10, physically map within 1 Mbp of the ferulate 5-hydroxylase (F5H gene, providing a putative independent validation of this marker-trait association. This study details the merit of collectively integrate population structure and relatedness in association analyses in undomesticated, highly

  20. Impacts of Population Structure and Analytical Models in Genome-Wide Association Studies of Complex Traits in Forest Trees: A Case Study in Eucalyptus globulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Martín N.; Acuña, Cintia; Borralho, Nuno M. G.; Grattapaglia, Dario; Marcucci Poltri, Susana N.

    2013-01-01

    The promise of association genetics to identify genes or genomic regions controlling complex traits has generated a flurry of interest. Such phenotype-genotype associations could be useful to accelerate tree breeding cycles, increase precision and selection intensity for late expressing, low heritability traits. However, the prospects of association genetics in highly heterozygous undomesticated forest trees can be severely impacted by the presence of cryptic population and pedigree structure. To investigate how to better account for this, we compared the GLM and five combinations of the Unified Mixed Model (UMM) on data of a low-density genome-wide association study for growth and wood property traits carried out in a Eucalyptus globulus population (n = 303) with 7,680 Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers. Model comparisons were based on the degree of deviation from the uniform distribution and estimates of the mean square differences between the observed and expected p-values of all significant marker-trait associations detected. Our analysis revealed the presence of population and family structure. There was not a single best model for all traits. Striking differences in detection power and accuracy were observed among the different models especially when population structure was not accounted for. The UMM method was the best and produced superior results when compared to GLM for all traits. Following stringent correction for false discoveries, 18 marker-trait associations were detected, 16 for tree diameter growth and two for lignin monomer composition (S∶G ratio), a key wood property trait. The two DArT markers associated with S∶G ratio on chromosome 10, physically map within 1 Mbp of the ferulate 5-hydroxylase (F5H) gene, providing a putative independent validation of this marker-trait association. This study details the merit of collectively integrate population structure and relatedness in association analyses in undomesticated, highly

  1. Not to put too fine a point on it - does increasing precision of geographic referencing improve species distribution models for a wide-ranging migratory bat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Ozenberger, Katharine; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Bat specimens held in natural history museum collections can provide insights into the distribution of species. However, there are several important sources of spatial error associated with natural history specimens that may influence the analysis and mapping of bat species distributions. We analyzed the importance of geographic referencing and error correction in species distribution modeling (SDM) using occurrence records of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus). This species is known to migrate long distances and is a species of increasing concern due to fatalities documented at wind energy facilities in North America. We used 3,215 museum occurrence records collected from 1950–2000 for hoary bats in North America. We compared SDM performance using five approaches: generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy models. We evaluated results using three SDM performance metrics (AUC, sensitivity, and specificity) and two data sets: one comprised of the original occurrence data, and a second data set consisting of these same records after the locations were adjusted to correct for identifiable spatial errors. The increase in precision improved the mean estimated spatial error associated with hoary bat records from 5.11 km to 1.58 km, and this reduction in error resulted in a slight increase in all three SDM performance metrics. These results provide insights into the importance of geographic referencing and the value of correcting spatial errors in modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging bat species. We conclude that the considerable time and effort invested in carefully increasing the precision of the occurrence locations in this data set was not worth the marginal gains in improved SDM performance, and it seems likely that gains would be similar for other bat species that range across large areas of the continent, migrate, and are habitat generalists.

  2. Weaving a wide net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garber, Linda

    2002-10-01

    SUMMARY Any single approach tostudents' heterosexism and homophobia, however well conceived and executed, is most successful when supported by an integrated campus approach to the problem. Taking as a model the multifaceted efforts at California State University, Fresno-a large public institution located in what can be considered the state's Bible Belt-this essay discusses the strengths and logistics of a campus-wide program to address homophobia and alleviate LGBTQ students' feelings of alienation from the institution and their oppression in society. The efforts of CSUF take place at a number of different levels-classroom, academic department, student services, faculty networking-and can be considered a successful work in progress.

  3. Genome-wide ENU mutagenesis in combination with high density SNP analysis and exome sequencing provides rapid identification of novel mouse models of developmental disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Caruana

    Full Text Available Mice harbouring gene mutations that cause phenotypic abnormalities during organogenesis are invaluable tools for linking gene function to normal development and human disorders. To generate mouse models harbouring novel alleles that are involved in organogenesis we conducted a phenotype-driven, genome-wide mutagenesis screen in mice using the mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU.ENU was injected into male C57BL/6 mice and the mutations transmitted through the germ-line. ENU-induced mutations were bred to homozygosity and G3 embryos screened at embryonic day (E 13.5 and E18.5 for abnormalities in limb and craniofacial structures, skin, blood, vasculature, lungs, gut, kidneys, ureters and gonads. From 52 pedigrees screened 15 were detected with anomalies in one or more of the structures/organs screened. Using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP-based linkage analysis in conjunction with candidate gene or next-generation sequencing (NGS we identified novel recessive alleles for Fras1, Ift140 and Lig1.In this study we have generated mouse models in which the anomalies closely mimic those seen in human disorders. The association between novel mutant alleles and phenotypes will lead to a better understanding of gene function in normal development and establish how their dysfunction causes human anomalies and disease.

  4. Genetic polymorphisms in varied environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, J R

    1971-12-03

    Thirteen experimenital populationis of Drosophila willistoni were maintained in cages, in some of which the environments were relatively constant and in others varied. After 45 weeks, the populations were assayed by gel electrophoresis for polymorphisms at 22 protein loci. The average heterozygosity per individual and the average unmber of alleles per locus were higher in populations maintained in heterogeneous environments than in populations in more constant enviroments.

  5. Incorporation of the Time-Varying Postprandial Increase in Splanchnic Blood Flow into a PBPK Model to Predict the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered High-Extraction Drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Rachel H; Turner, David B; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Jamei, Masoud

    2017-07-01

    Following a meal, a transient increase in splanchnic blood flow occurs that can result in increased exposure to orally administered