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Sample records for models vary widely

  1. Prices of Generic Heart Failure Drugs Vary Widely

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162035.html Prices of Generic Heart Failure Drugs Vary Widely Patients can spend from $12 to $ ... Nov. 15, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Cash prices of generic medicines to treat heart failure vary so widely that ...

  2. Graduate Students' Pay and Benefits Vary Widely, Survey Shows

    Science.gov (United States)

    June, Audrey Williams

    2008-01-01

    Graduate students face an array of choices when evaluating compensation-and-benefits packages that make comparisons difficult. A "Chronicle" survey shows that the offers to teaching assistants and research assistants vary widely. Some institutions cover 100 percent of graduate students' tuition, while others waive only a portion. It is possible to…

  3. Additional Surgery after Breast-Conserving Surgery Varies Widely

    Science.gov (United States)

    A study published in the Feb. 1, 2012, issue of JAMA found that the number of women who have one or more additional surgeries to remove suspected residual tumor tissue (re-excisions) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for breast cancer varies widely across surgeons and hospitals.

  4. Linearized Bekenstein Varying Alpha Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pina-Avelino, P; Oliveira, J C

    2004-01-01

    We study the simplest class of Bekenstein-type, varying $\\alpha$ models, in which the two available free functions (potential and gauge kinetic function) are Taylor-expanded up to linear order. Any realistic model of this type reduces to a model in this class for a certain time interval around the present day. Nevertheless, we show that no such model is consistent with all existing observational results. We discuss possible implications of these findings, and in particular clarify the ambiguous statement (often found in the literature) that ``the Webb results are inconsistent with Oklo''.

  5. Linearized Bekenstein varying α models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avelino, P. P.; Martins, C. J.; Oliveira, J. C.

    2004-10-01

    We study the simplest class of Bekenstein-type, varying α models, in which the two available free functions (potential and gauge kinetic function) are Taylor-expanded up to linear order. Any realistic model of this type reduces to a model in this class for a certain time interval around the present day. Nevertheless, we show that no such model is consistent with all existing observational results. We discuss possible implications of these findings, and, in particular, clarify the ambiguous statement (often found in the literature) that “the Webb results are inconsistent with Oklo.”

  6. Finite element form of FDV for widely varying flowfields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, G. A.; Cassibry, J. T.; Chung, T. J.; Wu, S. T.

    2010-01-01

    We present the Flowfield Dependent Variation (FDV) method for physical applications that have widely varying spatial and temporal scales. Our motivation is to develop a versatile numerical method that is accurate and stable in simulations with complex geometries and with wide variations in space and time scales. The use of a finite element formulation adds capabilities such as flexible grid geometries and exact enforcement of Neumann boundary conditions. While finite element schemes are used extensively by researchers solving computational fluid dynamics in many engineering fields, their use in space physics, astrophysical fluids and laboratory magnetohydrodynamic simulations with shocks has been predominantly overlooked. The FDV method is unique in that numerical diffusion is derived from physical parameters rather than traditional artificial viscosity methods. Numerical instabilities account for most of the difficulties when capturing shocks in these regimes. The first part of this paper concentrates on the presentation of our numerical method formulation for Newtonian and relativistic hydrodynamics. In the second part we present several standard simulation examples that test the method's limitations and verify the FDV method. We show that our finite element formulation is stable and accurate for a range of both Mach numbers and Lorentz factors in one-dimensional test problems. We also present the converging/diverging nozzle which contains both incompressible and compressible flow in the flowfield over a range of subsonic and supersonic regions. We demonstrate the stability of our method and the accuracy by comparison with the results of other methods including the finite difference Total Variation Diminishing method. We explore the use of FDV for both non-relativistic and relativistic fluids (hydrodynamics) with strong shocks in order to establish the effectiveness in future applications of this method in astrophysical and laboratory plasma environments.

  7. Frontal Neurons Modulate Memory Retrieval across Widely Varying Temporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Hua; Williams, Ziv M.

    2015-01-01

    Once a memory has formed, it is thought to undergo a gradual transition within the brain from short- to long-term storage. This putative process, however, also poses a unique problem to the memory system in that the same learned items must also be retrieved across broadly varying time scales. Here, we find that neurons in the ventrolateral…

  8. Modeling non-Gaussian time-varying vector autoregressive process

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We present a novel and general methodology for modeling time-varying vector autoregressive processes which are widely used in many areas such as modeling of chemical...

  9. Inhomogeneous Universe Models with Varying Cosmological Term

    CERN Document Server

    Chimento, L P; Chimento, Luis P.; Pavon, Diego

    1998-01-01

    The evolution of a class of inhomogeneous spherically symmetric universe models possessing a varying cosmological term and a material fluid, with an adiabatic index either constant or not, is studied.

  10. Varying Alpha and the Electroweak Model

    CERN Document Server

    Kimberly, D; Kimberly, Dagny; Magueijo, Joao

    2003-01-01

    Inspired by recent claims for a varying fine structure constant, alpha, we investigate the effect of ``promoting coupling constants to variables'' upon various parameters of the standard model. We first consider a toy model: Proca's theory of the massive photon. We then explore the electroweak theory with one and two dilaton fields. We find that a varying alpha unavoidably implies varying W and Z masses. This follows from gauge invariance, and is to be contrasted with Proca' theory. For the two dilaton theory the Weinberg angle is also variable, but Fermi's constant and the tree level fermion masses remain constant unless the Higgs' potential becomes dynamical. We outline some cosmological implications.

  11. Varying alpha and the electroweak model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kimberly, Dagny; Magueijo, Joao

    2004-03-25

    Inspired by recent claims for a varying fine structure constant, alpha, we investigate the effect of 'promoting coupling constants to variables' upon various parameters of the standard model. We first consider a toy model: Proca theory of the massive photon. We then explore the electroweak theory with one and two dilaton fields. We find that a varying alpha unavoidably implies varying W and Z masses. This follows from gauge invariance, and is to be contrasted with Proca theory. For the two dilaton theory the Weinberg angle is also variable, but Fermi's constant and the tree level fermion masses remain constant unless the Higgs potential becomes dynamical. We outline some cosmological implications.

  12. Efficient Estimation in Heteroscedastic Varying Coefficient Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanhua Wei

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers statistical inference for the heteroscedastic varying coefficient model. We propose an efficient estimator for coefficient functions that is more efficient than the conventional local-linear estimator. We establish asymptotic normality for the proposed estimator and conduct some simulation to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

  13. An ETAS model with varying productivity rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harte, D. S.

    2014-07-01

    We present an epidemic type aftershock sequenc (ETAS) model where the offspring rates vary both spatially and temporally. This is achieved by distinguishing between those space-time volumes where the interpoint space and time distances are small, and those where they are considerably larger. We also question the nature of the background component in the ETAS model. Is it simply a temporal boundary correction (t = 0) or does it represent an additional tectonic process not described by the aftershock component? The form of these stochastic models should not be considered to be fixed. As we accumulate larger and better earthquake catalogues, GPS data, strain rates, etc., we have the ability to ask more complex questions about the nature of the process. By fitting modified models consistent with such questions, we should gain a better insight into the earthquake process. Hence, we consider a sequence of incrementally modified ETAS type models rather than `the' ETAS model.

  14. Local Rank Inference for Varying Coefficient Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lan; Kai, Bo; Li, Runze

    2009-12-01

    By allowing the regression coefficients to change with certain covariates, the class of varying coefficient models offers a flexible approach to modeling nonlinearity and interactions between covariates. This paper proposes a novel estimation procedure for the varying coefficient models based on local ranks. The new procedure provides a highly efficient and robust alternative to the local linear least squares method, and can be conveniently implemented using existing R software package. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations both reveal that the gain of the local rank estimator over the local linear least squares estimator, measured by the asymptotic mean squared error or the asymptotic mean integrated squared error, can be substantial. In the normal error case, the asymptotic relative efficiency for estimating both the coefficient functions and the derivative of the coefficient functions is above 96%; even in the worst case scenarios, the asymptotic relative efficiency has a lower bound 88.96% for estimating the coefficient functions, and a lower bound 89.91% for estimating their derivatives. The new estimator may achieve the nonparametric convergence rate even when the local linear least squares method fails due to infinite random error variance. We establish the large sample theory of the proposed procedure by utilizing results from generalized U-statistics, whose kernel function may depend on the sample size. We also extend a resampling approach, which perturbs the objective function repeatedly, to the generalized U-statistics setting; and demonstrate that it can accurately estimate the asymptotic covariance matrix.

  15. MULTIVARIATE VARYING COEFFICIENT MODEL FOR FUNCTIONAL RESPONSES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Li, Runze; Kong, Linglong

    2012-10-01

    Motivated by recent work studying massive imaging data in the neuroimaging literature, we propose multivariate varying coefficient models (MVCM) for modeling the relation between multiple functional responses and a set of covariates. We develop several statistical inference procedures for MVCM and systematically study their theoretical properties. We first establish the weak convergence of the local linear estimate of coefficient functions, as well as its asymptotic bias and variance, and then we derive asymptotic bias and mean integrated squared error of smoothed individual functions and their uniform convergence rate. We establish the uniform convergence rate of the estimated covariance function of the individual functions and its associated eigenvalue and eigenfunctions. We propose a global test for linear hypotheses of varying coefficient functions, and derive its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis. We also propose a simultaneous confidence band for each individual effect curve. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply MVCM to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the genu tract of the corpus callosum in a clinical study of neurodevelopment.

  16. Time-varying modeling of cerebral hemodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Shin, Dae C; Orme, Melissa; Rong Zhang

    2014-03-01

    The scientific and clinical importance of cerebral hemodynamics has generated considerable interest in their quantitative understanding via computational modeling. In particular, two aspects of cerebral hemodynamics, cerebral flow autoregulation (CFA) and CO2 vasomotor reactivity (CVR), have attracted much attention because they are implicated in many important clinical conditions and pathologies (orthostatic intolerance, syncope, hypertension, stroke, vascular dementia, mild cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease, and other neurodegenerative diseases with cerebrovascular components). Both CFA and CVR are dynamic physiological processes by which cerebral blood flow is regulated in response to fluctuations in cerebral perfusion pressure and blood CO2 tension. Several modeling studies to date have analyzed beat-to-beat hemodynamic data in order to advance our quantitative understanding of CFA-CVR dynamics. A confounding factor in these studies is the fact that the dynamics of the CFA-CVR processes appear to vary with time (i.e., changes in cerebrovascular characteristics) due to neural, endocrine, and metabolic effects. This paper seeks to address this issue by tracking the changes in linear time-invariant models obtained from short successive segments of data from ten healthy human subjects. The results suggest that systemic variations exist but have stationary statistics and, therefore, the use of time-invariant modeling yields "time-averaged models" of physiological and clinical utility.

  17. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  18. Estimating wide-angle, spatially varying reflectance using time-resolved inversion of backscattered light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Nikhil; Barsi, Christopher; Velten, Andreas; Raskar, Ramesh

    2014-05-01

    Imaging through complex media is a well-known challenge, as scattering distorts a signal and invalidates imaging equations. For coherent imaging, the input field can be reconstructed using phase conjugation or knowledge of the complex transmission matrix. However, for incoherent light, wave interference methods are limited to small viewing angles. On the other hand, time-resolved methods do not rely on signal or object phase correlations, making them suitable for reconstructing wide-angle, larger-scale objects. Previously, a time-resolved technique was demonstrated for uniformly reflecting objects. Here, we generalize the technique to reconstruct the spatially varying reflectance of shapes hidden by angle-dependent diffuse layers. The technique is a noninvasive method of imaging three-dimensional objects without relying on coherence. For a given diffuser, ultrafast measurements are used in a convex optimization program to reconstruct a wide-angle, three-dimensional reflectance function. The method has potential use for biological imaging and material characterization.

  19. Nutrient Intake Values for Folate during Pregnancy and Lactation Vary Widely around the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa A. Houghton

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Folate is a B-vitamin with particular importance during reproduction due to its role in the synthesis and maintenance of DNA. Folate is well known for its role in preventing neural tube defects (NTDs during the periconceptional period. There is also an increased need for folate throughout pregnancy to support optimal growth and development of the fetus and blood volume expansion and tissue growth of the mother. During lactation, women are at risk of folate deficiency due to increased demands to accommodate milk folate levels. Nutrient Intake Values (NIVs for folate have been calculated to take into account additional needs during pregnancy and lactation. However, these values vary widely between countries. For example, the folate requirement that is set to meet the needs of almost all healthy women during pregnancy varies from 300 µg/day in the United Kingdom to 750 µg/day in Mexico. Currently, there is no accepted standardized terminology or framework for establishing NIVs. This article reviews country-specific NIVs for folate during pregnancy and lactation and the basis for setting these reference values.

  20. TESTS FOR VARIANCE COMPONENTS IN VARYING COEFFICIENT MIXED MODELS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zaixing Li; Yuedong Wang; Ping Wu; Wangli Xu; Lixing Zhu

    2012-01-01

    .... To address the question of whether a varying coefficient mixed model can be reduced to a simpler varying coefficient model, we develop one-sided tests for the null hypothesis that all the variance components are zero...

  1. Crops Models for Varying Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry; Cavazzoni, James; Keas, Paul

    2001-01-01

    New variable environment Modified Energy Cascade (MEC) crop models were developed for all the Advanced Life Support (ALS) candidate crops and implemented in SIMULINK. The MEC models are based on the Volk, Bugbee, and Wheeler Energy Cascade (EC) model and are derived from more recent Top-Level Energy Cascade (TLEC) models. The MEC models simulate crop plant responses to day-to-day changes in photosynthetic photon flux, photoperiod, carbon dioxide level, temperature, and relative humidity. The original EC model allows changes in light energy but uses a less accurate linear approximation. The simulation outputs of the new MEC models for constant nominal environmental conditions are very similar to those of earlier EC models that use parameters produced by the TLEC models. There are a few differences. The new MEC models allow setting the time for seed emergence, have realistic exponential canopy growth, and have corrected harvest dates for potato and tomato. The new MEC models indicate that the maximum edible biomass per meter squared per day is produced at the maximum allowed carbon dioxide level, the nominal temperatures, and the maximum light input. Reducing the carbon dioxide level from the maximum to the minimum allowed in the model reduces crop production significantly. Increasing temperature decreases production more than it decreases the time to harvest, so productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greater at nominal than maximum temperatures, The productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greatest at the maximum light energy input allowed in the model, but the edible biomass produced per light energy input unit is lower than at nominal light levels. Reducing light levels increases light and power use efficiency. The MEC models suggest we can adjust the light energy day-to- day to accommodate power shortages or Lise excess power while monitoring and controlling edible biomass production.

  2. EOQ Models with Varying Holding Cost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naser Ghasemi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of inventory management contain different parameters. An issue is observable in the classical models which can be related to the determination of the quantity of the economic order and the quantity of the economic production. In these models, the parameters like setup and holding costs and also the rate of demands are fixed. This matter causes the quantity of the economic ordering in classic model to have some differences in comparison with the real-world conditions. It should be stated that holding cost of spoiled and useless products is not always fixed and so the costs increase by passing the time. This paper is an attempt to develop classical EOQ models by considering holding cost as an increasing function of the ordering cycle length. So the classical EOQ models are developed, and the related optimum quantity to the ordering cycle length, economic ordering quantity, and the optimum total cost are determined.

  3. Jump-Preserving Varying-Coefficient Models for Nonlinear Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, Pavel; Koo, Chao

    2017-01-01

    An important and widely used class of semiparametric models is formed by the varyingcoefficient models. Although the varying coefficients are traditionally assumed to be smooth functions, the varying-coefficient model is considered here with the coefficient functions containing a finite set of disco

  4. Chloroplast movement behavior varies widely among species and does not correlate with high light stress tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Königer, Martina; Bollinger, Nicole

    2012-08-01

    It is well known that chloroplasts move in response to changes in blue light intensity in order to optimize light interception, however, little is known about interspecific variation and the relative importance of this mechanism for the high light stress tolerance of plants. We characterized chloroplast movement behavior as changes in light transmission through a leaf in a variety of species ranging from ferns to monocots and eudicots and found a wide spectrum of responses. Most species exhibited a distinct accumulation response compared to the dark positioning, and all species showed a distinct avoidance response. The speed with which transmission values changed during the avoidance response was consistently faster than that during the accumulation response and speeds varied greatly between species. Plants thriving in higher growth light intensities showed greater degrees of accumulation responses and faster changes in transmission than those that prefer lower light intensities. In some species, the chloroplasts on both the adaxial and abaxial leaf surfaces changed their positioning in response to light, while in other species only the chloroplasts on one leaf side responded. No correlation was found between high light stress tolerance and the speed or degree of transmission changes, indicating that plants can compensate for slow and limited transmission changes using other photoprotective mechanisms.

  5. The HRA/Solarium Project: Processing of Widely Varying High- and Medium-Level Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willems, M.; Luycx, P.; Gilis, R.; Belgoprocess; Renard, Cl.; Reyniers, H.; Cuchet, J. M.

    2003-02-26

    Starting in 2003, Belgoprocess will proceed with the treatment and conditioning of some 200 m{sup 3} of widely varying high- and medium-level waste from earlier research and development work, to meet standard acceptance criteria for later disposal. The gross volume of primary and secondary packages amounts to 2,600 m{sup 3}. The waste has been kept in decay storage for up to 30 years. The project was started in 1997. Operation of the various processing facilities will take 7-8 years. The overall volume of conditioned waste will be of the order of 800 m{sup 3}. All conditioned waste will be stored in appropriate storage facilities onsite. At present (November, 2002), a new processing facility has been constructed, the functional tests of the equipment have been performed and the startup phase has been started. Several cells of the Pamela vitrification facility onsite will be adapted for the treatment of high-level and highly a-contaminated waste; low-level a/a waste will be treated in the existing facility for super compaction and conditioning by embedding into cement (CILVA). The bulk of these waste, of which 95% are solids, the remainder consisting of mainly solidified liquids, have been produced between 1967 and 1988. They originate from various research programs and reactor operation at the Belgian nuclear energy research centre SCK CEN, isotope production, decontamination and dismantling operations.

  6. Management of Inflammatory Bowel Disease during Pregnancy and Breastfeeding Varies Widely: A Need for Further Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Karen Jean; Hegadoren, Kathleen M.; Dieleman, Levinus Albert; Fedorak, Richard Neil

    2016-01-01

    Background. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) affects patients in their young reproductive years. Women with IBD require maintenance therapies during pregnancy and breastfeeding. However, physician management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding has not been well characterized. Objective. To characterize physician perceptions and management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Methods. A cross-sectional survey of Canadian physicians who are involved in the care of women with IBD was conducted. The survey included multiple-choice and Likert scale questions about perceptions and practice patterns regarding the management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Results. 183 practicing physicians completed the questionnaire: 97/183 (53.0%) gastroenterologists; 75/183 (41.0%) general practitioners; and 11/183 (6.0%) other physicians. Almost half (87/183, 47.5%) of the physicians felt comfortable managing pregnant IBD patients. For specified IBD medications, proportions of physicians who indicated they would continue them during pregnancy were as follows: sulfasalazine, 47.4%; oral mesalamine, 67.0%; topical mesalamine, 70.3%; oral prednisone, 68.0%; topical prednisone, 78.0%; oral budesonide, 61.6%; topical budesonide, 75.0%; ciprofloxacin, 15.3%; metronidazole, 31.4%; azathioprine, 57.1%; methotrexate, 2.8%; infliximab, 55.6%; adalimumab, 78.1%. Similar proportions of physicians would continue these medications during breastfeeding. A higher proportion of gastroenterologists than nongastroenterologists indicated appropriate use of these IBD medications during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Conclusions. Physician management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding varies widely. Relative to other physicians, responses of gastroenterologists more frequently reflected best practices pertaining to medications for control of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. There is a need for further education regarding the management of IBD during pregnancy and

  7. Management of Inflammatory Bowel Disease during Pregnancy and Breastfeeding Varies Widely: A Need for Further Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vivian Wai-Mei Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD affects patients in their young reproductive years. Women with IBD require maintenance therapies during pregnancy and breastfeeding. However, physician management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding has not been well characterized. Objective. To characterize physician perceptions and management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Methods. A cross-sectional survey of Canadian physicians who are involved in the care of women with IBD was conducted. The survey included multiple-choice and Likert scale questions about perceptions and practice patterns regarding the management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Results. 183 practicing physicians completed the questionnaire: 97/183 (53.0% gastroenterologists; 75/183 (41.0% general practitioners; and 11/183 (6.0% other physicians. Almost half (87/183, 47.5% of the physicians felt comfortable managing pregnant IBD patients. For specified IBD medications, proportions of physicians who indicated they would continue them during pregnancy were as follows: sulfasalazine, 47.4%; oral mesalamine, 67.0%; topical mesalamine, 70.3%; oral prednisone, 68.0%; topical prednisone, 78.0%; oral budesonide, 61.6%; topical budesonide, 75.0%; ciprofloxacin, 15.3%; metronidazole, 31.4%; azathioprine, 57.1%; methotrexate, 2.8%; infliximab, 55.6%; adalimumab, 78.1%. Similar proportions of physicians would continue these medications during breastfeeding. A higher proportion of gastroenterologists than nongastroenterologists indicated appropriate use of these IBD medications during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Conclusions. Physician management of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding varies widely. Relative to other physicians, responses of gastroenterologists more frequently reflected best practices pertaining to medications for control of IBD during pregnancy and breastfeeding. There is a need for further education regarding the management of IBD during

  8. Model Identification of Linear Parameter Varying Aircraft Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fujimore, Atsushi; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a parameter estimation of continuous-time polytopic models for a linear parameter varying (LPV) system. The prediction error method of linear time invariant (LTI) models is modified for polytopic models. The modified prediction error method is applied to an LPV aircraft system whose varying parameter is the flight velocity and model parameters are the stability and control derivatives (SCDs). In an identification simulation, the polytopic model is more suitable for expre...

  9. TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION IN DISCRETE EXPONENTIAL FAMILY NONLINEAR MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LinJinguan; WeiBocheng; ZhangNansong

    2003-01-01

    It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models. Wei ,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models. This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed. Two types of varying dispersion, which are random coefficients model and random effects model, are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple ,easy to use ,matrix formulas.

  10. Petri nets extension to model state-varying failure rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja

    2013-01-01

    One of the most common assumptions in reliability modeling is the constant failure rate. This has been increasingly changing lately, yielding significant research towards abandoning simulation results based on this assumption; thus, deeming constant failure rates as inadequate to model failures......-varying failure rates and extend the formalism of Petri nets to model them. To illustrate our approach we provide an example model that features state-varying failure rates....

  11. Cosmological models with interacting components and mass-varying neutrinos

    CERN Document Server

    Collodel, Lucas G

    2012-01-01

    A model for a homogeneous and isotropic spatially flat Universe, composed of baryons, radiation, neutrinos, dark matter and dark energy is analyzed. We infer that dark energy (considered to behave as a scalar field) interacts with dark matter (either by the Wetterich model, or by the Anderson and Carroll model) and with neutrinos by a model proposed by Brookfield et al.. The latter is understood to have a mass-varying behavior. We show that for a very-softly varying field, both interacting models for dark matter give the same results. The models reproduce the expected red-shift performances of the present behavior of the Universe.

  12. Widely varying giant Goos-Hänchen shifts from Airy beams at nonlinear interfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamorro-Posada, Pedro; Sánchez-Curto, Julio; Aceves, Alejandro B; McDonald, Graham S

    2014-03-15

    We present a numerical study of the giant Goos-Hänchen shifts (GHSs) obtained from an Airy beam impinging on a nonlinear interface. To avoid any angular restriction associated with the paraxial approximation, the analysis is based on the nonlinear Helmholtz equation. We report the existence of nonstandard nonlinear GHSs displaying an extreme sensitivity to the input intensity and the existence of multiple critical values. These intermittent and oscillatory regimes can be explained in terms of competition between critical coupling to a surface mode and soliton emission from the refracted beam component and how this interplay varies with localization of the initial Airy beam.

  13. Wooden Model of Wide AA Bending Magnet

    CERN Multimedia

    1978-01-01

    The very particular lattice of the AA required 2 types of dipoles (bending magnets: BLG, long and narrow; BST, short and wide). The wide ones had a steel length of 2.71 m, a "good field" width of 0.564 m, and a weight of about 75 t. Here we see a wooden model, built in 1978, to gain dimensional experience with such a monster.

  14. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  15. Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Models Stratified by a Functional Covariate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  16. Prediction and dissection of widely-varying association rate constants of actin-binding proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Pang

    Full Text Available Actin is an abundant protein that constitutes a main component of the eukaryotic cytoskeleton. Its polymerization and depolymerization are regulated by a variety of actin-binding proteins. Their functions range from nucleation of actin polymerization to sequestering G-actin in 1∶1 complexes. The kinetics of forming these complexes, with rate constants varying at least three orders of magnitude, is critical to the distinct regulatory functions. Previously we have developed a transient-complex theory for computing protein association mechanisms and association rate constants. The transient complex refers to an intermediate in which the two associating proteins have near-native separation and relative orientation but have yet to form short-range specific interactions of the native complex. The association rate constant is predicted as k(a = k(a0 e(-ΔG(el*/k(BT, where k(a0 is the basal rate constant for reaching the transient complex by free diffusion, and the Boltzmann factor captures the bias of long-range electrostatic interactions. Here we applied the transient-complex theory to study the association kinetics of seven actin-binding proteins with G-actin. These proteins exhibit three classes of association mechanisms, due to their different molecular shapes and flexibility. The 1000-fold k(a variations among them can mostly be attributed to disparate electrostatic contributions. The basal rate constants also showed variations, resulting from the different shapes and sizes of the interfaces formed by the seven actin-binding proteins with G-actin. This study demonstrates the various ways that actin-binding proteins use physical properties to tune their association mechanisms and rate constants to suit distinct regulatory functions.

  17. The period length of fibroblast circadian gene expression varies widely among human individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven A Brown

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Mammalian circadian behavior is governed by a central clock in the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the brain hypothalamus, and its intrinsic period length is believed to affect the phase of daily activities. Measurement of this period length, normally accomplished by prolonged subject observation, is difficult and costly in humans. Because a circadian clock similar to that of the suprachiasmatic nucleus is present in most cell types, we were able to engineer a lentiviral circadian reporter that permits characterization of circadian rhythms in single skin biopsies. Using it, we have determined the period lengths of 19 human individuals. The average value from all subjects, 24.5 h, closely matches average values for human circadian physiology obtained in studies in which circadian period was assessed in the absence of the confounding effects of light input and sleep-wake cycle feedback. Nevertheless, the distribution of period lengths measured from biopsies from different individuals was wider than those reported for circadian physiology. A similar trend was observed when comparing wheel-running behavior with fibroblast period length in mouse strains containing circadian gene disruptions. In mice, inter-individual differences in fibroblast period length correlated with the period of running-wheel activity; in humans, fibroblasts from different individuals showed widely variant circadian periods. Given its robustness, the presented procedure should permit quantitative trait mapping of human period length.

  18. Pathogen exposure varies widely among sympatric populations of wild and domestic felids across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N.; Lappin, Michael R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Alldredge, Mathew W.; Logan, Kenneth A.; Sweanor, Linda L.; Riley, Seth P.D.; Serieys, Laurel E.K.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Boyce, Walter M.; McBride, Roy; Cunnigham, Mark C.; Jennings, Megan; Lewis, Jesse S.; Lunn, Tamika; Crooks, Kevin R.; VandeWoude, Sue

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how landscape, host, and pathogen traits contribute to disease exposure requires systematic evaluations of pathogens within and among host species and geographic regions. The relative importance of these attributes is critical for management of wildlife and mitigating domestic animal and human disease, particularly given rapid ecological changes, such as urbanization. We screened >1,000 samples from sympatric populations of puma (Puma concolor), bobcat (Lynx rufus) and domestic cat (Felis catus) across urban gradients in six sites, representing three regions, in North America for exposure to a representative suite of bacterial, protozoal and viral pathogens (Bartonella sp., Toxoplasma gondii, feline herpesvirus-1, feline panleukopenea virus, feline calicivirus, feline immunodeficiency virus). We evaluated prevalence within each species, and examined host trait and land cover determinants of exposure-providing an unprecedented analysis of factors relating to potential for infections in domesticated and wild felids. Prevalence differed among host species (highest for puma and lowest for domestic cat) and was greater for indirectly transmitted pathogens. Sex was inconsistently predictive of exposure to directly transmitted pathogens only, and age infrequently predictive of both direct and indirectly transmitted pathogens. Determinants of pathogen exposure were widely divergent between the wild felid species. For puma, suburban landuse predicted increased exposure to Bartonella sp. in southern California, and FHV-1 exposure increased near urban edges in Florida. This may suggest inter-specific transmission with domestic cats via flea vectors (California) and direct contact (Florida) around urban boundaries. Bobcats captured near urban areas had increased exposure to T. gondii in Florida, suggesting an urban source of prey. Bobcats captured near urban areas in Colorado and Florida had higher FIV exposure, possibly suggesting increased intra

  19. Wooden Model of Wide AA Bending Magnet

    CERN Multimedia

    1978-01-01

    The very particular lattice of the AA required 2 types of dipoles (bending magnets: BLG, long and narrow; BST, short and wide). A wide one had a steel length of 2.71 m, a "good field" width of 0.564 m, and a weight of about 75 t. A wooden model was build in 1978, to gain dimensional experience. Here, Peter Zettwoch, one of the largest men at CERN at that time, is putting a hand in the mouth of the wooden BST monster.

  20. Genome-wide analysis reveals DNA methylation markers that vary with both age and obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almén, Markus Sällman; Nilsson, Emil K; Jacobsson, Josefin A; Kalnina, Ineta; Klovins, Janis; Fredriksson, Robert; Schiöth, Helgi B

    2014-09-10

    The combination of the obesity epidemic and an aging population presents growing challenges for the healthcare system. Obesity and aging are major risk factors for a diverse number of diseases and it is of importance to understand their interaction and the underlying molecular mechanisms. Herein the authors examined the methylation levels of 27578 CpG sites in 46 samples from adult peripheral blood. The effect of obesity and aging was ascertained with general linear models. More than one hundred probes were correlated to aging, nine of which belonged to the KEGG group map04080. Additionally, 10 CpG sites had diverse methylation profiles in obese and lean individuals, one of which was the telomerase catalytic subunit (TERT). In eight of ten cases the methylation change was reverted between obese and lean individuals. One region proved to be differentially methylated with obesity (LINC00304) independent of age. This study provides evidence that obesity influences age driven epigenetic changes, which provides a molecular link between aging and obesity. This link and the identified markers may prove to be valuable biomarkers for the understanding of the molecular basis of aging, obesity and associated diseases. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Late time attractors of some varying Chaplygin gas cosmological models

    CERN Document Server

    Khurshudyan, M

    2015-01-01

    Varying Chaplygin gas is one of the dark fluids actively studied in modern cosmology. It does belong to the group of the fluids which has an explicitly given EoS. From the other hand phase space does contain all possible states of the system. Therefore, phase space analysis of the cosmological models does allow to understand qualitative behavior and estimate required characteristics of the models. Phase space analysis is a convenient approach to study a cosmological model, because we do not need to solve a system of differential equations for a given initial conditions, instead, we need to deal with appropriate algebraic equations. The goal of this paper is to find late time attractors for the cosmological models, where a varying Chaplygin gas is one of the components of the large sale universe. We will pay our attention to some non linear interacting models.

  2. Using time-varying covariates in multilevel growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Betsy McCoach

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an illustration of growth curve modeling within a multilevel framework. Specifically, we demonstrate coding schemes that allow the researcher to model discontinuous longitudinal data using a linear growth model in conjunction with time varying covariates. Our focus is on developing a level-1 model that accurately reflects the shape of the growth trajectory. We demonstrate the importance of adequately modeling the shape of the level-1 growth trajectory in order to make inferences about the importance of both level-1 and level-2 predictors.

  3. Finite mixture varying coefficient models for analyzing longitudinal heterogenous data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhaohua; Song, Xinyuan

    2012-03-15

    This paper aims to develop a mixture model to study heterogeneous longitudinal data on the treatment effect of heroin use from a California Civil Addict Program. Each component of the mixture is characterized by a varying coefficient mixed effect model. We use the Bayesian P-splines approach to approximate the varying coefficient functions. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate the smooth functions, unknown parameters, and latent variables in the model. We use modified deviance information criterion to determine the number of components in the mixture. A simulation study demonstrates that the modified deviance information criterion selects the correct number of components and the estimation of unknown quantities is accurate. We apply the proposed model to the heroin treatment study. Furthermore, we identify heterogeneous longitudinal patterns.

  4. Modelling Acoustic Wave Propagation in Axisymmetric Varying-Radius Waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    A computationally fast and accurate model (a set of coupled ordinary differential equations) for fluid sound-wave propagation in infinite axisymmetric waveguides of varying radius is proposed. The model accounts for fluid heat conduction and fluid irrotational viscosity. The model problem is solved...... by expanding solutions in terms of cross-sectional eigenfunctions following Stevenson’s method. A transfer matrix can be easily constructed from simple model responses of a given waveguide and later used in computing the response to any complex wave input. Energy losses due to heat conduction and viscous...

  5. Robust linear parameter varying induction motor control with polytopic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalila Khamari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a robust controller for an induction motor which is represented as a linear parameter varying systems. To do so linear matrix inequality (LMI based approach and robust Lyapunov feedback controller are associated. This new approach is related to the fact that the synthesis of a linear parameter varying (LPV feedback controller for the inner loop take into account rotor resistance and mechanical speed as varying parameter. An LPV flux observer is also synthesized to estimate rotor flux providing reference to cited above regulator. The induction motor is described as a polytopic model because of speed and rotor resistance affine dependence their values can be estimated on line during systems operations. The simulation results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach where robustness stability and high performances have been achieved over the entire operating range of the induction motor.

  6. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  7. A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.

    2013-01-01

    Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the

  8. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  9. Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, M. S.

    2009-10-01

    Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

  10. A von Bertalanffy growth model with a seasonally varying coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E.; Nichols, Frederic H.

    1978-01-01

    The von Bertalanffy model of body growth is inappropriate for organisms whose growth is restricted to a seasonal period because it assumes that growth rate is invariant with time. Incorporation of a time-varying coefficient significantly improves the capability of the von Bertalanffy equation to describe changing body size of both the bivalve mollusc Macoma balthicain San Francisco Bay and the flathead sole, Hippoglossoides elassodon, in Washington state. This simple modification of the von Bertalanffy model should offer improved predictions of body growth for a variety of other aquatic animals.

  11. CMB Constraints on Reheating Models with Varying Equation of State

    CERN Document Server

    de Freitas, Rodolfo C

    2015-01-01

    The temperature at the end of reheating and the length of this cosmological phase can be bound to the inflationary observables if one considers the cosmological evolution from the time of Hubble crossing until today. There are many examples in the literature where it is made for single-field inflationary models and a constant equation of state during reheating. We adopt two simple varying equation of state parameters during reheating, combine the allowed range of the reheating parameters with the observational limits of the scalar perturbations spectral index and compare the constraints of some inflationary models with the case of a constant equation of state parameter during reheating.

  12. Influence Diagnostics in Partially Varying-Coefficient Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    When a real-world data set is fitted to a specific type of models, it is often encountered that one or a set of observations have undue influence on the model fitting, which may lead to misleading conclusions. Therefore, it is necessary for data analysts to identify these influential observations and assess their impact on various aspects of model fitting. In this paper, one type of modified Cook's distances is defined to gauge the influence of one or a set observations on the estimate of the constant coefficient part in partially varying-coefficient models, and the Cook's distances are expressed as functions of the corresponding residuals and leverages. Meanwhile, a bootstrap procedure is suggested to derive the reference values for the proposed Cook's distances. Some simulations are conducted, and a real-world data set is further analyzed to examine the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results are satisfactory.

  13. Modeling and Analysis of Time-Varying Graphs

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Prithwish; Ramanathan, Ram; Johnson, Matthew P

    2010-01-01

    We live in a world increasingly dominated by networks -- communications, social, information, biological etc. A central attribute of many of these networks is that they are dynamic, that is, they exhibit structural changes over time. While the practice of dynamic networks has proliferated, we lag behind in the fundamental, mathematical understanding of network dynamism. Existing research on time-varying graphs ranges from preliminary algorithmic studies (e.g., Ferreira's work on evolving graphs) to analysis of specific properties such as flooding time in dynamic random graphs. A popular model for studying dynamic graphs is a sequence of graphs arranged by increasing snapshots of time. In this paper, we study the fundamental property of reachability in a time-varying graph over time and characterize the latency with respect to two metrics, namely store-or-advance latency and cut-through latency. Instead of expected value analysis, we concentrate on characterizing the exact probability distribution of routing l...

  14. Micro-Viscometer for Measuring Shear-Varying Blood Viscosity over a Wide-Ranging Shear Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Byung Jun; Lee, Seung Yeob; Jee, Solkeun; Atajanov, Arslan; Yang, Sung

    2017-06-20

    In this study, a micro-viscometer is developed for measuring shear-varying blood viscosity over a wide-ranging shear rate. The micro-viscometer consists of 10 microfluidic channel arrays, each of which has a different micro-channel width. The proposed design enables the retrieval of 10 different shear rates from a single flow rate, thereby enabling the measurement of shear-varying blood viscosity with a fixed flow rate condition. For this purpose, an optimal design that guarantees accurate viscosity measurement is selected from a parametric study. The functionality of the micro-viscometer is verified by both numerical and experimental studies. The proposed micro-viscometer shows 6.8% (numerical) and 5.3% (experimental) in relative error when compared to the result from a standard rotational viscometer. Moreover, a reliability test is performed by repeated measurement (N = 7), and the result shows 2.69 ± 2.19% for the mean relative error. Accurate viscosity measurements are performed on blood samples with variations in the hematocrit (35%, 45%, and 55%), which significantly influences blood viscosity. Since the blood viscosity correlated with various physical parameters of the blood, the micro-viscometer is anticipated to be a significant advancement for realization of blood on a chip.

  15. Reducing component estimation for varying coefficient models with longitudinal data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Varying-coefficient models with longitudinal observations are very useful in epidemiology and some other practical fields.In this paper,a reducing component procedure is proposed for es- timating the unknown functions and their derivatives in very general models,in which the unknown coefficient functions admit different or the same degrees of smoothness and the covariates can be time- dependent.The asymptotic properties of the estimators,such as consistency,rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution,are derived.The asymptotic results show that the asymptotic variance of the reducing component estimators is smaller than that of the existing estimators when the coefficient functions admit different degrees of smoothness.Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations.

  16. Time-varying priority queuing models for human dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Hang-Hyun; Pan, Raj Kumar; Kaski, Kimmo

    2012-06-01

    Queuing models provide insight into the temporal inhomogeneity of human dynamics, characterized by the broad distribution of waiting times of individuals performing tasks. We theoretically study the queuing model of an agent trying to execute a task of interest, the priority of which may vary with time due to the agent's "state of mind." However, its execution is disrupted by other tasks of random priorities. By considering the priority of the task of interest either decreasing or increasing algebraically in time, we analytically obtain and numerically confirm the bimodal and unimodal waiting time distributions with power-law decaying tails, respectively. These results are also compared to the updating time distribution of papers in arXiv.org and the processing time distribution of papers in Physical Review journals. Our analysis helps to understand human task execution in a more realistic scenario.

  17. Time-Varying Priority Queuing Models for Human Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Jo, Hang-Hyun; Kaski, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Queuing models provide insight into the temporal inhomogeneity of human dynamics, characterized by the broad distribution of waiting times of individuals performing tasks. We study the queuing model of an agent trying to execute a task of interest, the priority of which may vary with time due to the agent's "state of mind." However, its execution can be disrupted by other tasks of random priorities. By considering the priority of the task of interest either decreasing or increasing algebraically in time, we analytically obtain and numerically confirm the bimodal and unimodal waiting time distributions with power-law decaying tails, respectively. These results are also compared to the updating time distribution of papers in the arXiv and the processing time distribution of papers in Physical Review journals. Our analysis helps to understand the human task execution behavior in a more realistic scenario.

  18. Thermohaline feedbacks in ocean-climate models of varying complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Toom, M.

    2013-03-01

    explicitly resolves eddies, and a model in which eddies are parameterized. It is found that the behavior of an eddy-resolving model is qualitatively different from that of a non-eddying model. What is clear at this point, is that the AMOC is governed by non-linear dynamics. As a result, its simulated behavior depends in a non-trivial way on how unresolved processes are represented in a model. As demonstrated in this thesis, model fidelity can be effectively assessed by examining models of varying complexity.

  19. Transient,spatially-varied recharge for groundwater modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assefa, Kibreab; Woodbury, Allan

    2013-04-01

    This study is aimed at producing spatially and temporally varying groundwater recharge for transient groundwater modeling in a pilot watershed in the North Okanagan, Canada. The recharge modeling is undertaken by using a Richard's equation based finite element code (HYDRUS-1D) [Simunek et al., 2002], ArcGISTM [ESRI, 2011], ROSETTA [Schaap et al., 2001], in situ observations of soil temperature and soil moisture and a long term gridded climate data [Nielsen et al., 2010]. The public version of HYDUS-1D [Simunek et al., 2002] and another beta version with a detailed freezing and thawing module [Hansson et al., 2004] are first used to simulate soil temperature, snow pack and soil moisture over a one year experimental period. Statistical analysis of the results show both versions of HYDRUS-1D reproduce observed variables to the same degree. Correlation coefficients for soil temperature simulation were estimated at 0.9 and 0.8, at depths of 10 cm and 50 cm respectively; and for soil moisture, 0.8 and 0.6 at 10 cm and 50 cm respectively. This and other standard measures of model performance (root mean square error and average error) showed a promising performance of the HYDRUS-1D code in our pilot watershed. After evaluating model performance using field data and ROSETTA derived soil hydraulic parameters, the HYDRUS-1D code is coupled with ArcGISTM to produce spatially and temporally varying recharge maps throughout the Deep Creek watershed. Temporal and spatial analysis of 25 years daily recharge results at various representative points across the study watershed reveal significant temporal and spatial variations; average recharge estimated at 77.8 ± 50.8mm /year. This significant variation over the years, caused by antecedent soil moisture condition and climatic condition, illustrates the common flaw of assigning a constant percentage of precipitation throughout the simulation period. Groundwater recharge modeling has previously been attempted in the Okanagan Basin

  20. Projection-type estimation for varying coefficient regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Young K; Park, Byeong U; 10.3150/10-BEJ331

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we introduce new estimators of the coefficient functions in the varying coefficient regression model. The proposed estimators are obtained by projecting the vector of the full-dimensional kernel-weighted local polynomial estimators of the coefficient functions onto a Hilbert space with a suitable norm. We provide a backfitting algorithm to compute the estimators. We show that the algorithm converges at a geometric rate under weak conditions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimators and show that the estimators have the oracle properties. This is done for the general order of local polynomial fitting and for the estimation of the derivatives of the coefficient functions, as well as the coefficient functions themselves. The estimators turn out to have several theoretical and numerical advantages over the marginal integration estimators studied by Yang, Park, Xue and H\\"{a}rdle [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006) 1212--1227].

  1. TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION OF LONGITUDINAL BINOMIAL DATA IN NONLINEAR LOGISTIC MODELS WITH RANDOM EFFECTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林金官; 韦博成

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, it is discussed that two tests for varying dispersion of binomial data in the framework of nonlinear logistic models with random effects, which are widely used in analyzing longitudinal binomial data. One is the individual test and power calculation for varying dispersion through testing the randomness of cluster effects, which is extensions of Dean(1992) and Commenges et al (1994). The second test is the composite test for varying dispersion through simultaneously testing the randomness of cluster effects and the equality of random-effect means. The score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple, easy to use, matrix formulas. The authors illustrate their test methods using the insecticide data (Giltinan, Capizzi & Malani (1988)).

  2. a Linear Model for Meandering Rivers with Arbitrarily Varying Width

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frascati, A.; Lanzoni, S.

    2011-12-01

    Alluvial rivers usually exhibit quite complex planforms, characterized by a wide variety of alternating bends, that have attracted the interest of a large number of researchers. Much less attention has been paid to another striking feature observed in alluvial rivers, namely the relatively regular spatial variations attained by the channel width. Actively meandering channels, in fact, generally undergo spatial oscillations systematically correlated with channel curvature, with cross sections wider at bends than at crossings. Some other streams have been observed to exhibit irregular width variations. Conversely, rivers flowing in highly vegetated flood plains, i.e. canaliform rivers, may exhibit an opposite behavior, owing to the combined effects of bank erodibility and floodplain depositional processes which, in turn, are strictly linked to vegetation cover. Similarly to streamline curvatures induced by bends, the presence of along channel width variations may have remarkable effects on the flow field and sediment dynamics and, thereby, on the equilibrium river bed configuration. In particular, spatial distribution of channel curvature typically determines the formation of a rhythmic bar-pool pattern in the channel bed strictly associated with the development of river meanders. Channel width variations are on the contrary characterized by a sequence of narrowing, yielding a central scour, alternated to the downstream development of a widening associated with the formation of a central bar. Here we present a morphodynamic model that predict at a linear level the spatial distribution of the flow field and the equilibrium bed configuration of an alluvial river characterized by arbitrary along channel distributions of both the channel axis curvature and the channel width. The mathematical model is averaged over the depth and describes the steady, non-uniform flow and sediment transport in sinuous channels with a noncohesive bed. The governing two-dimensional equations

  3. Surface Wave Tomography with Spatially Varying Smoothing Based on Continuous Model Regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chuanming; Yao, Huajian

    2017-03-01

    Surface wave tomography based on continuous regionalization of model parameters is widely used to invert for 2-D phase or group velocity maps. An inevitable problem is that the distribution of ray paths is far from homogeneous due to the spatially uneven distribution of stations and seismic events, which often affects the spatial resolution of the tomographic model. We present an improved tomographic method with a spatially varying smoothing scheme that is based on the continuous regionalization approach. The smoothness of the inverted model is constrained by the Gaussian a priori model covariance function with spatially varying correlation lengths based on ray path density. In addition, a two-step inversion procedure is used to suppress the effects of data outliers on tomographic models. Both synthetic and real data are used to evaluate this newly developed tomographic algorithm. In the synthetic tests, when the contrived model has different scales of anomalies but with uneven ray path distribution, we compare the performance of our spatially varying smoothing method with the traditional inversion method, and show that the new method is capable of improving the recovery in regions of dense ray sampling. For real data applications, the resulting phase velocity maps of Rayleigh waves in SE Tibet produced using the spatially varying smoothing method show similar features to the results with the traditional method. However, the new results contain more detailed structures and appears to better resolve the amplitude of anomalies. From both synthetic and real data tests we demonstrate that our new approach is useful to achieve spatially varying resolution when used in regions with heterogeneous ray path distribution.

  4. Varactor Modelling for Power Factor Correction in a Varying Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agwu D. D.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available : For efficient system operation, it is desirable to keep the power factor at, or very close to unity. One of the very often used methods is application of suitable power factor correction technology. Capacitors are good candidate for constant load power factor correction due to suitability and cost effectiveness. However for varying loads, synchronous condensers are preferred despite having high initial cost as a result of their being able to supply varying leading or lagging reactive power; according to their field excitation. Due to the high acquisition and operation cost of synchronous condensers, this paper presents varactors as a possible alternative for power factor correction. These are diodes that vary their capacitances and leading reactive power according to supply voltage. Applying this involves looking at variation of power factor with supply voltage; and the option of aggregating and harnessing the junction capacitance of varactors for power factor correction of varying loads at low voltage AC levels. This innovation may lead to great improvement in distribution systems requiring quality power supply

  5. modelling flow over stepped spillway with varying chute geometry

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... to obtain some varying flow data in 36 different experiments. These obtained flow ... The percentage difference between the values predicted by each of these ..... d1 the discharge per unit width q, gravity accelera- tion g, and ...

  6. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    factors. The squared correlation coefficient times the sample size has a limiting chi-squared distribution. The test can be made robust to serial correlation in the idiosyncratic errors. We find evidence for factor loadings variance in over half of the variables in a dataset for the US economy, while...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  7. Modeling Potentially Time-Varying Effects of Promotions on Sales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.A. Sijthoff

    2001-01-01

    textabstractA commonly applied modeling tool for the analysis of promotional effects on weekly sales data is a linear regression model. Usually, such a model includes 0/1 dummy variables for promotions, where weeks with a promotion get a value of 1. When these variables are included in a model with

  8. Guaranteed Student Loans: Profits of Secondary Market Lenders Vary Widely. United States General Accounting Office Briefing Report to Congressional Requesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Div. of Human Resources.

    This report was prepared to determine lenders' rates of return or profitability on Stafford loans in their portfolios, reasons for varying levels of profitability among institutions that hold such loans, and the effect of 1986 subsidy reductions on these lenders' profitability. The study focused on the activities of lenders that purchase Stafford…

  9. Rooting depth and water source flexibility of Arundo donax across a wide and topographically varied floodplain inferred from stable isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, G. W.; West, J. B.; Li, F.; Kui, L.

    2011-12-01

    Floodplain environments can exhibit strong gradients in soil moisture availability, from very dry to saturated, with important consequences for riparian vegetation transpiration and productivity and therefore ecohydrologic flowpaths. These gradients are often driven by geomorphic features that themselves can be affected by vegetation change over relatively short timescales. The Rio Grande has undergone substantial change in the past half century, including channel narrowing and significant expansion of non-native vegetation, often across previously unvegetated sandbars and natural levees. The objective of this study was to assess water sources for Arundo donax L. (giant reed), a now common invasive grass growing along the floodplains of the Rio Grande. Our hypotheses were: a) Arundo would switch from primarily shallow soil moisture to groundwater during periods of soil moisture deficit, but that this access would be limited by increasing groundwater depths, and b) transpiration would decline with floodplain elevation and decreasing surface soil moisture because of increasing depth to groundwater and surface soil moisture deficits. We used natural-abundance stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) to determine the water sources of Arundo along four approximately 100-meter transects arrayed perpendicular to the Rio Grande in southwest Texas. Surface soil water, river water, groundwater, precipitation and rhizome sections were collected every month from summer 2010 until summer 2011 to assess potential source water isotopic composition for Arundo. Mixing models were used to estimate Arundo dependence on surface soil moisture or groundwater. The isotopic compositions of groundwater and river water were similar throughout the year, indicating significant hyporheic exchange. As expected, the isotopic composition of precipitation events and a large flood event were distinct from the slowly-changing river and allowed an assessment of Arundo use of these

  10. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States...

  11. Potato model uncertainty across common datasets and varying climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...

  12. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    For many dam projects in China, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in China, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life. Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained results can provide technology support for the project management department to make treatment measures of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

  13. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fleisher, David H.; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J.; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C.; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M.; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Parker, Phillip S.; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C.; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2016-01-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United

  14. Model independent constraints on mass-varying neutrino scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Franca, Urbano; Lesgourgues, Julien; Pastor, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    Models of dark energy in which neutrinos interact with the scalar field supposed to be responsible for the acceleration of the universe usually imply a variation of the neutrino masses on cosmological time scales. In this work we propose a parameterization for the neutrino mass variation that captures the essentials of those scenarios and allows to constrain them in a model independent way, that is, without resorting to any particular scalar field model. Using WMAP 5yr data combined with the matter power spectrum of SDSS and 2dFGRS, the limit on the present value of the neutrino mass is $m_0 \\equiv m_{\

  15. Improved process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons under varying wind speeds and gas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the lagoon water total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model using a...

  16. Model transcriptional networks with continuously varying expression levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carneiro Mauricio O

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background At a time when genomes are being sequenced by the hundreds, much attention has shifted from identifying genes and phenotypes to understanding the networks of interactions among genes. We developed a gene network developmental model expanding on previous models of transcription regulatory networks. In our model, each network is described by a matrix representing the interactions between transcription factors, and a vector of continuous values representing the transcription factor expression in an individual. Results In this work we used the gene network model to look at the impact of mating as well as insertions and deletions of genes in the evolution of complexity of these networks. We found that the natural process of diploid mating increases the likelihood of maintaining complexity, especially in higher order networks (more than 10 genes. We also show that gene insertion is a very efficient way to add more genes to a network as it provides a much higher chance of developmental stability. Conclusions The continuous model affords a more complete view of the evolution of interacting genes. The notion of a continuous output vector also incorporates the reality of gene networks and graded concentrations of gene products.

  17. Modeling ventricular function during cardiac assist: does time-varying elastance work?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenberghe, Stijn; Segers, Patrick; Steendijk, Paul; Meyns, Bart; Dion, Robert A E; Antaki, James F; Verdonck, Pascal

    2006-01-01

    The time-varying elastance theory of Suga et al. is widely used to simulate left ventricular function in mathematical models and in contemporary in vitro models. We investigated the validity of this theory in the presence of a left ventricular assist device. Left ventricular pressure and volume data are presented that demonstrate the heart-device interaction for a positive-displacement pump (Novacor) and a rotary blood pump (Medos). The Novacor was implanted in a calf and used in fixed-rate mode (85 BPM), whereas the Medos was used at several flow levels (0-3 l/min) in seven healthy sheep. The Novacor data display high beat-to-beat variations in the amplitude of the elastance curve, and the normalized curves deviate strongly from the typical bovine curve. The Medos data show how the maximum elastance depends on the pump flow level. We conclude that the original time-varying elastance theory insufficiently models the complex hemodynamic behavior of a left ventricle that is mechanically assisted, and that there is need for an updated ventricular model to simulate the heart-device interaction.

  18. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for t

  19. Phenomenologically varying \\Lambda and a toy model for the Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Khurshudyan, M; Chubaryan, E; Farahani, H

    2014-01-01

    We consider a model of the Universe with variable G and {\\Lambda}. Subject of our interest is a phenomenological model for {\\Lambda} proposed and considered in this article first time (up to our knowledge). Modification based on an assumption that ghost dark energy exists and Universe will feel it through {\\Lambda}. In that case we would like to consider possibility that there exist some unusual connections between different components of the fluids existing in Universe. We would like to stress, that this is just an assumption and could be very far from the reality. We are interested by this model as a phenomenological and mathematical and unfortunately, we will not discuss about physical conditions and possibilities of having such modifications. To test our assumption and to observe behavior of the Universe, we will consider toy models filled by a barotropic fluid and modified Chaplyagin gas. To complete the logic of the research we will consider interaction between barotropic fluid or Chaplygin gas with gho...

  20. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  1. Cascades in the Threshold Model for varying system sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karampourniotis, Panagiotis; Sreenivasan, Sameet; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    2015-03-01

    A classical model in opinion dynamics is the Threshold Model (TM) aiming to model the spread of a new opinion based on the social drive of peer pressure. Under the TM a node adopts a new opinion only when the fraction of its first neighbors possessing that opinion exceeds a pre-assigned threshold. Cascades in the TM depend on multiple parameters, such as the number and selection strategy of the initially active nodes (initiators), and the threshold distribution of the nodes. For a uniform threshold in the network there is a critical fraction of initiators for which a transition from small to large cascades occurs, which for ER graphs is largerly independent of the system size. Here, we study the spread contribution of each newly assigned initiator under the TM for different initiator selection strategies for synthetic graphs of various sizes. We observe that for ER graphs when large cascades occur, the spread contribution of the added initiator on the transition point is independent of the system size, while the contribution of the rest of the initiators converges to zero at infinite system size. This property is used for the identification of large transitions for various threshold distributions. Supported in part by ARL NS-CTA, ARO, ONR, and DARPA.

  2. Time-varying effect modeling with longitudinal data truncated by death: conditional models, interpretations, and inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Jason P; Nguyen, Danh V; Dalrymple, Lorien S; Mu, Yi; Şentürk, Damla

    2016-05-20

    Recent studies found that infection-related hospitalization was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, such as myocardial infarction and stroke in the dialysis population. In this work, we develop time-varying effects modeling tools in order to examine the CV outcome risk trajectories during the time periods before and after an initial infection-related hospitalization. For this, we propose partly conditional and fully conditional partially linear generalized varying coefficient models (PL-GVCMs) for modeling time-varying effects in longitudinal data with substantial follow-up truncation by death. Unconditional models that implicitly target an immortal population is not a relevant target of inference in applications involving a population with high mortality, like the dialysis population. A partly conditional model characterizes the outcome trajectory for the dynamic cohort of survivors, where each point in the longitudinal trajectory represents a snapshot of the population relationships among subjects who are alive at that time point. In contrast, a fully conditional approach models the time-varying effects of the population stratified by the actual time of death, where the mean response characterizes individual trends in each cohort stratum. We compare and contrast partly and fully conditional PL-GVCMs in our aforementioned application using hospitalization data from the United States Renal Data System. For inference, we develop generalized likelihood ratio tests. Simulation studies examine the efficacy of estimation and inference procedures.

  3. Modeling deep ocean shipping noise in varying acidity conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udovydchenkov, Ilya A; Duda, Timothy F; Doney, Scott C; Lima, Ivan D

    2010-09-01

    Possible future changes of ambient shipping noise at 0.1-1 kHz in the North Pacific caused by changing seawater chemistry conditions are analyzed with a simplified propagation model. Probable decreases of pH would cause meaningful reduction of the sound absorption coefficient in near-surface ocean water for these frequencies. The results show that a few decibels of increase may occur in 100 years in some very quiet areas very far from noise sources, with small effects closer to noise sources. The use of ray physics allows sound energy attenuated via volume absorption and by the seafloor to be compared.

  4. IgE and Drug Allergy: Antibody Recognition of ‘Small’ Molecules of Widely Varying Structures and Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Baldo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The variety of chemically diverse pharmacologically-active compounds administered to patients is large and seemingly forever growing, and, with every new drug released and administered, there is always the potential of an allergic reaction. The most commonly occurring allergic responses to drugs are the type I, or immediate hypersensitivity reactions mediated by IgE antibodies. These reactions may affect a single organ, such as the nasopharynx (allergic rhinitis, eyes (conjunctivitis, mucosa of mouth/throat/tongue (angioedema, bronchopulmonary tissue (asthma, gastrointestinal tract (gastroenteritis and skin (urticaria, eczema, or multiple organs (anaphylaxis, causing symptoms ranging from minor itching and inflammation to death. It seems that almost every drug is capable of causing an immediate reaction and it is unusual to find a drug that has not provoked an anaphylactic response in at least one patient. These facts alone indicate the extraordinary breadth of recognition of IgE antibodies for drugs ranging from relatively simple structures, for example, aspirin, to complex molecules, such as the macrolide antibiotics composed of a large macrocyclic ring with attached deoxy sugars. This wide recognition profile is borne out at the molecular level by results of quantitative immunochemical studies where hapten inhibition investigations have identified structural determinants complementary to IgE antibodies in the sera of allergic subjects. Allergenic determinants have been identified on a variety of drugs including neuromuscular blockers, penicillins, cephalosporins, opioids, thiopentone, sulfonamides, trimethoprim, quinolones, chlorhexidine and the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug aspirin. It is already clear that IgE can distinguish fine structural differences on a wide variety of molecules, determinants may be at least as small as an amino group or encompass the whole molecule, and individual drugs may demonstrate allergenic heterogeneity.

  5. Long-Term Fuid Flow Measurements From Widely Varied Oceanic Settings Elucidate Near-Surface Hydrologic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryon, M. D.; Brown, K. M.

    2003-12-01

    The quantification of aqueous flux rates from various ocean floor environments has been a goal of numerous scientific programs for more than a decade with increasing focus on gas hydrate regions. Six years ago we developed the Chemical and Aqueous Transport (CAT) meter to collect long-term temporal records of low to moderate aqueous flow rates in sedimented ocean floor environments and, more specifically, to quantify to mass flux associated with the formation of gas hydrates. Since that time thirty of these instruments have been built and over a hundred deployments accomplished in a variety of hydrate and non-hydrate settings. We present here an overview of the results of these deployments and compare and contrast the flow records from these varied hydrological environments. Specific environments include: Gas Hydrates (Hydrate Ridge and the Eel River area on the Cascadia convergent margin, and Bush Hill in northern Gulf of Mexico), Hydrothermal (Japan's Sagami Bay and the incoming plate offshore Costa Rica's Nicoya Peninsula, TicoFlux area), and the tectonically active convergent margin off Nicoya and Osa. One of the most important outcomes of this research is the realization that fluid flow across the seabed/ocean interface is often dominated by shallow subsurface and oceanographic processes which vary significantly over time. These processes can be as simple as the diurnal pressure gradients caused by the rise and fall of tides to highly complex processes associated with the formation and transport of subsurface free gas. These processes have been both a boon and a bane to our research. Tidal oscillations have tended to mask the net flow in many very low flux settings. The high degree of spatial and temporal variation in some environments have revealed the extreme difficulty of quantifying the more widespread mass flux associated with the underlying tectonic processes. Yet, the nature of these variations have allowed us to better constrain the fundamental

  6. Modeling the surface photovoltage of silicon slabs with varying thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazhappilly, Tijo; Kilin, Dmitri S; Micha, David A

    2015-04-10

    The variation with thickness of the energy band gap and photovoltage at the surface of a thin semiconductor film are of great interest in connection with their surface electronic structure and optical properties. In this work, the change of a surface photovoltage (SPV) with the number of layers of a crystalline silicon slab is extracted from models based on their atomic structure. Electronic properties of photoexcited slabs are investigated using generalized gradient and hybrid density functionals, and plane wave basis sets. Si(1 1 1) surfaces have been terminated by hydrogen atoms to compensate for dangling bonds and have been described by large supercells with periodic boundary conditions. Calculations of the SPV of the Si slabs have been done in terms of the reduced density matrix of the photoactive electrons including dissipative effects due to their interaction with medium phonons and excitons. Surface photovoltages have been calculated for model Si slabs with 4-12, and 16 layers, to determine convergence trends versus slab thickness. Band gaps and the inverse of the SPVs have been found to scale nearly linearly with the inverse thickness of the slab, while the electronic density of states increases quadratically with thickness. Our calculations show the same trends as experimental values indicating band gap reduction and absorption enhancement for Si films of increasing thickness. Simple arguments on confined electronic structures have been used to explain the main effects of changes with slab thickness. A procedure involving shifted electron excitation energies is described to improve results from generalized gradient functionals so they can be in better agreement with the more accurate but also more computer intensive values from screened exchange hybrid functionals.

  7. Model Study of Wave Overtopping of Marine Structure for a Wide Range of Geometric Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2000-01-01

    The objective of the study described in this paper is to enable estimation of wave overtopping rates for slopes/ramps given by a wide range of geometric parameters when subjected to varying wave conditions. To achieve this a great number of model tests are carried out in a wave tank using irregular...

  8. Modelling suction instabilities in soils at varying degrees of saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buscarnera Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wetting paths imparted by the natural environment and/or human activities affect the state of soils in the near-surface, promoting transitions across different regimes of saturation. This paper discusses a set of techniques aimed at quantifying the role of hydrologic processes on the hydro-mechanical stability of soil specimens subjected to saturation events. Emphasis is given to the mechanical conditions leading to coupled flow/deformation instabilities. For this purpose, energy balance arguments for three-phase systems are used to derive second-order work expressions applicable to various regimes of saturation. Controllability analyses are then performed to relate such work input with constitutive singularities that reflect the loss of strength under coupled and/or uncoupled hydro-mechanical forcing. A suction-dependent plastic model is finally used to track the evolution of stability conditions in samples subjected to wetting, thus quantifying the growth of the potential for coupled failure modes upon increasing degree of saturation. These findings are eventually linked with the properties of the field equations that govern pore pressure transients, thus disclosing a conceptual link between the onset of coupled hydro-mechanical failures and the evolution of suction with time. Such results point out that mathematical instabilities caused by a non-linear suction dependent behaviour play an important role in the advanced constitutive and/or numerical tools that are commonly used for the analysis of geomechanical problems in the unsaturated zone, and further stress that the relation between suction transients and soil deformations is a key factor for the interpretation of runaway failures caused by intense saturation events.

  9. ASYMPTOTICS FOR CHANGE-POINT MODELS UNDER VARYING DEGREES OF MIS-SPECIFICATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Rui; Banerjee, Moulinath; Kosorok, Michael R

    2016-02-01

    Change-point models are widely used by statisticians to model drastic changes in the pattern of observed data. Least squares/maximum likelihood based estimation of change-points leads to curious asymptotic phenomena. When the change-point model is correctly specified, such estimates generally converge at a fast rate (n) and are asymptotically described by minimizers of a jump process. Under complete mis-specification by a smooth curve, i.e. when a change-point model is fitted to data described by a smooth curve, the rate of convergence slows down to n(1/3) and the limit distribution changes to that of the minimizer of a continuous Gaussian process. In this paper we provide a bridge between these two extreme scenarios by studying the limit behavior of change-point estimates under varying degrees of model mis-specification by smooth curves, which can be viewed as local alternatives. We find that the limiting regime depends on how quickly the alternatives approach a change-point model. We unravel a family of 'intermediate' limits that can transition, at least qualitatively, to the limits in the two extreme scenarios. The theoretical results are illustrated via a set of carefully designed simulations. We also demonstrate how inference for the change-point parameter can be performed in absence of knowledge of the underlying scenario by resorting to subsampling techniques that involve estimation of the convergence rate.

  10. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU HuaiZhi; WEN ZhiPing; HU Jiang; WU ZhongRu

    2009-01-01

    For many dam projects in China, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in China, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life.Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained results can provide technology support for the project management department to make treatment measures of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

  11. Mixed effects models for recurrent events data with partially observed time-varying covariates: Ecological momentary assessment of smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathbun, Stephen L; Shiffman, Saul

    2016-03-01

    Cigarette smoking is a prototypical example of a recurrent event. The pattern of recurrent smoking events may depend on time-varying covariates including mood and environmental variables. Fixed effects and frailty models for recurrent events data assume that smokers have a common association with time-varying covariates. We develop a mixed effects version of a recurrent events model that may be used to describe variation among smokers in how they respond to those covariates, potentially leading to the development of individual-based smoking cessation therapies. Our method extends the modified EM algorithm of Steele (1996) for generalized mixed models to recurrent events data with partially observed time-varying covariates. It is offered as an alternative to the method of Rizopoulos, Verbeke, and Lesaffre (2009) who extended Steele's (1996) algorithm to a joint-model for the recurrent events data and time-varying covariates. Our approach does not require a model for the time-varying covariates, but instead assumes that the time-varying covariates are sampled according to a Poisson point process with known intensity. Our methods are well suited to data collected using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), a method of data collection widely used in the behavioral sciences to collect data on emotional state and recurrent events in the every-day environments of study subjects using electronic devices such as Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) or smart phones.

  12. Soil Compressibility Models for a Wide Stress Range

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song-Hun

    2016-03-03

    Soil compressibility models with physically correct asymptotic void ratios are required to analyze situations that involve a wide stress range. Previously suggested models and other functions are adapted to satisfy asymptotic void ratios at low and high stress levels; all updated models involve four parameters. Compiled consolidation data for remolded and natural clays are used to test the models and to develop correlations between model parameters and index properties. Models can adequately fit soil compression data for a wide range of stresses and soil types; in particular, models that involve the power of the stress σ\\'β display higher flexibility to capture the brittle response of some natural soils. The use of a single continuous function avoids numerical discontinuities or the need for ad hoc procedures to determine the yield stress. The tangent stiffness-readily computed for all models-should not be mistaken for the small-strain constant-fabric stiffness. © 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.

  13. Estimation of time-varying selectivity in stock assessments using state-space models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2014-01-01

    -varying selectivity pattern. The fishing mortality rates are considered (possibly correlated) stochastic processes, and the corresponding process variances are estimated within the model. The model is applied to North Sea cod and it is verified from simulations that time-varying selectivity can be estimated...

  14. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FEI WanChun; BAI Lun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series.We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models:the full order TVPAR model,the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TVPAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series.Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  15. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TV-PAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series. Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  16. Parametrically guided estimation in nonparametric varying coefficient models with quasi-likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Clemontina A; Maity, Arnab; Wu, Yichao

    2015-04-01

    Varying coefficient models allow us to generalize standard linear regression models to incorporate complex covariate effects by modeling the regression coefficients as functions of another covariate. For nonparametric varying coefficients, we can borrow the idea of parametrically guided estimation to improve asymptotic bias. In this paper, we develop a guided estimation procedure for the nonparametric varying coefficient models. Asymptotic properties are established for the guided estimators and a method of bandwidth selection via bias-variance tradeoff is proposed. We compare the performance of the guided estimator with that of the unguided estimator via both simulation and real data examples.

  17. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  18. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  19. A new switching parameter varying optoelectronic delayed feedback model with computer simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lingfeng; Miao, Suoxia; Cheng, Mengfan; Gao, Xiaojing

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, a new switching parameter varying optoelectronic delayed feedback model is proposed and analyzed by computer simulation. This model is switching between two parameter varying optoelectronic delayed feedback models based on chaotic pseudorandom sequences. Complexity performance results show that this model has a high complexity compared to the original model. Furthermore, this model can conceal the time delay effectively against the auto-correlation function, delayed mutual information and permutation information analysis methods, and can extent the key space, which greatly improve its security.

  20. Nonlinear model predictive control using parameter varying BP-ARX combination model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.-F.; Xiao, L.-F.; Qian, J.-X.; Li, H.

    2012-03-01

    A novel back-propagation AutoRegressive with eXternal input (BP-ARX) combination model is constructed for model predictive control (MPC) of MIMO nonlinear systems, whose steady-state relation between inputs and outputs can be obtained. The BP neural network represents the steady-state relation, and the ARX model represents the linear dynamic relation between inputs and outputs of the nonlinear systems. The BP-ARX model is a global model and is identified offline, while the parameters of the ARX model are rescaled online according to BP neural network and operating data. Sequential quadratic programming is employed to solve the quadratic objective function online, and a shift coefficient is defined to constrain the effect time of the recursive least-squares algorithm. Thus, a parameter varying nonlinear MPC (PVNMPC) algorithm that responds quickly to large changes in system set-points and shows good dynamic performance when system outputs approach set-points is proposed. Simulation results in a multivariable stirred tank and a multivariable pH neutralisation process illustrate the applicability of the proposed method and comparisons of the control effect between PVNMPC and multivariable recursive generalised predictive controller are also performed.

  1. Linear parameter-varying modeling and control of the steam temperature in a Canadian SCWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Peiwei, E-mail: sunpeiwei@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Jianmin; Su, Guanghui

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Nonlinearity of Canadian SCWR is analyzed based on step responses and Nyquist plots. • LPV model is derived through Jacobian linearization and curve fitting. • An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized for the steam temperature. • The control performance is evaluated by step disturbances and wide range operation. • The controller can stabilize the system and reject the reactor power disturbance. - Abstract: The Canadian direct-cycle Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR) is a pressure-tube type SCWR under development in Canada. The dynamics of the steam temperature have a high degree of nonlinearity and are highly sensitive to reactor power disturbances. Traditional gain scheduling control cannot theoretically guarantee stability for all operating regions. The control performance can also be deteriorated when the controllers are switched. In this paper, a linear parameter-varying (LPV) strategy is proposed to solve such problems. Jacobian linearization and curve fitting are applied to derive the LPV model, which is verified using a nonlinear dynamic model and determined to be sufficiently accurate for control studies. An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized to stabilize the steam temperature system and reject reactor power disturbances. The LPV steam temperature controller is implemented using a nonlinear dynamic model, and step changes in the setpoints and typical load patterns are carried out in the testing process. It is demonstrated through numerical simulation that the LPV controller not only stabilizes the steam temperature under different disturbances but also efficiently rejects reactor power disturbances and suppresses the steam temperature variation at different power levels. The LPV approach is effective in solving control problems of the steam temperature in the Canadian SCWR.

  2. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  3. Dynamic linear models to explore time-varying suspended sediment-discharge rating curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Yellen, Brian; Steinschneider, Scott

    2017-06-01

    This study presents a new method to examine long-term dynamics in sediment yield using time-varying sediment-discharge rating curves. Dynamic linear models (DLMs) are introduced as a time series filter that can assess how the relationship between streamflow and sediment concentration or load changes over time in response to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances or long-term changes. The filter operates by updating parameter values using a recursive Bayesian design that responds to 1 day-ahead forecast errors while also accounting for observational noise. The estimated time series of rating curve parameters can then be used to diagnose multiscale (daily-decadal) variability in sediment yield after accounting for fluctuations in streamflow. The technique is applied in a case study examining changes in turbidity load, a proxy for sediment load, in the Esopus Creek watershed, part of the New York City drinking water supply system. The results show that turbidity load exhibits a complex array of variability across time scales. The DLM highlights flood event-driven positive hysteresis, where turbidity load remained elevated for months after large flood events, as a major component of dynamic behavior in the rating curve relationship. The DLM also produces more accurate 1 day-ahead loading forecasts compared to other static and time-varying rating curve methods. The results suggest that DLMs provide a useful tool for diagnosing changes in sediment-discharge relationships over time and may help identify variability in sediment concentrations and loads that can be used to inform dynamic water quality management.

  4. Wide-area traffic: The failure of Poisson modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paxson, V.; Floyd, S.

    1994-08-01

    Network arrivals are often modeled as Poisson processes for analytic simplicity, even though a number of traffic studies have shown that packet interarrivals are not exponentially distributed. The authors evaluate 21 wide-area traces, investigating a number of wide-area TCP arrival processes (session and connection arrivals, FTPDATA connection arrivals within FTP sessions, and TELNET packet arrivals) to determine the error introduced by modeling them using Poisson processes. The authors find that user-initiated TCP session arrivals, such as remote-login and file-transfer, are well-modeled as Poisson processes with fixed hourly rates, but that other connection arrivals deviate considerably from Poisson; that modeling TELNET packet interarrivals as exponential grievously underestimates the burstiness of TELNET traffic, but using the empirical Tcplib[DJCME92] interarrivals preserves burstiness over many time scales; and that FTPDATA connection arrivals within FTP sessions come bunched into ``connection bursts``, the largest of which are so large that they completely dominate FTPDATA traffic. Finally, they offer some preliminary results regarding how the findings relate to the possible self-similarity of wide-area traffic.

  5. Nested Markov Compliance Class Model in the Presence of Time-Varying Noncompliance

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Julia Y.; Ten Have, Thomas R.; ELLIOTT, MICHAEL R.

    2009-01-01

    We consider a Markov structure for partially unobserved time-varying compliance classes in the Imbens-Rubin (1997) compliance model framework. The context is a longitudinal randomized intervention study where subjects are randomized once at baseline, outcomes and patient adherence are measured at multiple follow-ups, and patient adherence to their randomized treatment could vary over time. We propose a nested latent compliance class model where we use time-invariant subject-specific complianc...

  6. Nonlinear Time-Varying System Identification Using the NARMAX Model and Multiresolutions Wavelet Expansions

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, H. L.; Balikhin, M.; S. A. Billings

    2003-01-01

    Identification techniques for nonlinear time-varying systems are investigated based on the NARMAX model and multiresolution wavelet expansions. It is shown that a NARMAX model with time-varying coefficients can be reduced to a time-invariant linear-in-the-parameters analysis problem by then adapted to estimate the parameters. An application data relating to magnetic storms is used to illustrate the realistic application of the new identification technique.

  7. STATISTICAL INFERENCES FOR VARYING-COEFFICINT MODELS BASED ON LOCALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION TECHNIQUE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梅长林; 张文修; 梁怡

    2001-01-01

    Some fundamental issues on statistical inferences relating to varying-coefficient regression models are addressed and studied. An exact testing procedure is proposed for checking the goodness of fit of a varying-coefficient model fired by the locally weighted regression technique versus an ordinary linear regression model. Also, an appropriate statistic for testing variation of model parameters over the locations where the observations are collected is constructed and a formal testing approach which is essential to exploring spatial non-stationarity in geography science is suggested.

  8. From calls to communities: a model for time varying social networks

    CERN Document Server

    Laurent, Guillaume; Karsai, Márton

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions vary in time and appear to be driven by intrinsic mechanisms, which in turn shape the emerging structure of the social network. Large-scale empirical observations of social interaction structure have become possible only recently, and modelling their dynamics is an actual challenge. Here we propose a temporal network model which builds on the framework of activity-driven time-varying networks with memory. The model also integrates key mechanisms that drive the formation of social ties - social reinforcement, focal closure and cyclic closure, which have been shown to give rise to community structure and the global connectedness of the network. We compare the proposed model with a real-world time-varying network of mobile phone communication and show that they share several characteristics from heterogeneous degrees and weights to rich community structure. Further, the strong and weak ties that emerge from the model follow similar weight-topology correlations as real-world social networks, i...

  9. Efficient Estimation for Semiparametric Varying Coefficient Partially Linear Regression Models with Current Status Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao Hu; Heng-jian Cui; Xing-wei Tong

    2009-01-01

    This article considers a semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model with current status data. The semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model which is a gen-eralization of the partially linear regression model and varying-coefficient regression model that allows one to explore the possibly nonlinear effect of a certain covariate on the response variable. A Sieve maximum likelihood estimation method is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. The convergence rate of the estima-tor for the unknown smooth function is obtained and the estimator for the unknown parameter is shown to be asymptotically efficient and normally distributed. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the small-sample properties of the proposed estimates and a real dataset is used to illustrate our approach.

  10. Long-time behavior of a stochastic epidemic model with varying population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Fengying; Liu, Jiamin

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we investigate the persistence and extinction of a stochastic epidemic model with a varying population environment in the long-term behavior. Our model consists of two stochastic differential equations: one for the susceptible individuals in which the transmission rate is disturbed by white noise, one for the exposed individuals in which the same perturbation occurs, and one ordinary differential equation in which describes the infective individuals in a varying population environment. We derive sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the epidemic model depending on the constant contact rate. Moreover, we carry out several numerical simulations to illustrate the main results of this contribution.

  11. An assessment of coefficient accuracy in linear regression models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, David C.; Calder, Catherine A.

    2007-06-01

    The realization in the statistical and geographical sciences that a relationship between an explanatory variable and a response variable in a linear regression model is not always constant across a study area has led to the development of regression models that allow for spatially varying coefficients. Two competing models of this type are geographically weighted regression (GWR) and Bayesian regression models with spatially varying coefficient processes (SVCP). In the application of these spatially varying coefficient models, marginal inference on the regression coefficient spatial processes is typically of primary interest. In light of this fact, there is a need to assess the validity of such marginal inferences, since these inferences may be misleading in the presence of explanatory variable collinearity. In this paper, we present the results of a simulation study designed to evaluate the sensitivity of the spatially varying coefficients in the competing models to various levels of collinearity. The simulation study results show that the Bayesian regression model produces more accurate inferences on the regression coefficients than does GWR. In addition, the Bayesian regression model is overall fairly robust in terms of marginal coefficient inference to moderate levels of collinearity, and degrades less substantially than GWR with strong collinearity.

  12. Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helbich, M; Griffith, D

    2016-01-01

    Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

  13. Dynamics of a stochastic tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size by incorporating stochastic perturbations. By constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution as well as extinction of the disease to the stochastic system.

  14. Semiparametric Analysis of Heterogeneous Data Using Varying-Scale Generalized Linear Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Minge; Simpson, Douglas G; Carroll, Raymond J

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a class of heteroscedastic generalized linear regression models in which a subset of the regression parameters are rescaled nonparametrically, and develops efficient semiparametric inferences for the parametric components of the models. Such models provide a means to adapt for heterogeneity in the data due to varying exposures, varying levels of aggregation, and so on. The class of models considered includes generalized partially linear models and nonparametrically scaled link function models as special cases. We present an algorithm to estimate the scale function nonparametrically, and obtain asymptotic distribution theory for regression parameter estimates. In particular, we establish that the asymptotic covariance of the semiparametric estimator for the parametric part of the model achieves the semiparametric lower bound. We also describe bootstrap-based goodness-of-scale test. We illustrate the methodology with simulations, published data, and data from collaborative research on ultrasound safety.

  15. Modeling the interaction of electric current and tissue: importance of accounting for time varying electric properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Daniel J; Manwaring, Mark L

    2007-01-01

    Time varying computer models of the interaction of electric current and tissue are very valuable in helping to understand the complexity of the human body and biological tissue. The electrical properties of tissue, permittivity and conductivity, are vital to accurately modeling the interaction of the human tissue with electric current. Past models have represented the electric properties of the tissue as constant or temperature dependent. This paper presents time dependent electric properties that change as a result of tissue damage, temperature, blood flow, blood vessels, and tissue property. Six models are compared to emphasize the importance of accounting for these different tissue properties in the computer model. In particular, incorporating the time varying nature of the electric properties of human tissue into the model leads to a significant increase in tissue damage. An important feature of the model is the feedback loop created between the electric properties, tissue damage, and temperature.

  16. Transformer Model in Wide Frequency Bandwidth for Power Electronics Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Gonzalez-Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the smart grids leads to new challenges on the power electronics equipment and power transformers. The use of power electronic transformer presents several advantages, but new problems related with the application of high frequency voltage and current components come across. Thus, an accurate knowledge of the transformer behavior in a wide frequency range is mandatory. A novel modeling procedure to relate the transformer physical behavior and its frequency response by means of electrical parameters is presented. Its usability is demonstrated by an example where a power transformer is used as filter and voltage reducer in an AC-DC-AC converter.

  17. Analytic model of acoustic streaming in thermoacoustic waveguides with slowly varying cross-section

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Yuxian; LIU Ke; YANG Jun

    2012-01-01

    An analytic model of acoustic streaming generated in two-dimensional thermoa- coustic waveguides with slowly varying cross-section was developed for more general applica- tions. The analytical solutions of acoustic streaming characteristics in the closed straight tube and the annular tube are given based on the model. The solution for the closed straight tube can be applied to the case with any transverse scale. The solution for the annular tube is obtained under the assumption that the width of the varying cross-section part is much larger than the viscous and thermal penetration depths. The effects of cross-section variation, time-averaged temperature distribution and components of sound field are reflected in the analytic solutions. The magnitude and distribution of acoustic streaming velocity vary with the characteristic scale of the waveguides. The analytic model of acoustic streaming can be applied in research under thermoacoustic and other physical backgrounds.

  18. Process-Based Modeling of Floods Through Shrub Carrs of Varying Densities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J.

    2001-12-01

    Floodplain surfaces typically are protected from erosion during deep overbank flows by vegetation of varying types and densities. Drag on stems, branches, leaves, and exposed roots of the floodplain plants reduces both the near-bed flow and the fluid forces on the sediment grains. The drag on vegetation and on topographic elements of the floodplain surface can be calculated by carefully applying fundamental fluid-mechanical principals. Doing so requires identification and appropriate approximation of the reference velocity in the drag equation, and accurate estimates of the floodplain plant geometries and spacings. For shrubs, calculations indicate that skin friction on leaves is negligible compared to form drag on stems and branches, whereas, for uncut grasses, skin friction on the fronds is of primary importance. Scaling relationships are developed for each shrub species for specific applications, so that the fluid mechanically important properties can be estimated from mean stem diameters, mean stem group diameters, and mean stem group spacings. Stem group spacings and diameters can be related to shrub-canopy spacings and diameters respectively, which are determined from aerial photographs in the applications. A process-based model incorporating the necessary principles was developed and applied to a headwater tributary of East Plum Creek, Colorado. Calculations using the estimated decrease in density of the sandbar willows along this tributary accurately postdict the site of initiation of floodplain unraveling (transformation from a narrow, sinuous stream to a wide, straight one) that occurred during an extreme flood in 1965. Details of this application are presented in an accompanying poster. The model then is applied to Clark Fork of the Columbia River in the Deer Lodge Valley, Montana. This meandering fluvial system is an EPA Superfund site, because the flood-of-record in 1908 deposited several decimeters of contaminated tailings in the meander belt. The

  19. An Improved NHPP Model with Time-Varying Fault Removal Delay

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue Yang; Nan Sang; Hang Lei

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, an improved NHPP model isproposed by replacing constant fault removal time withtime-varying fault removal delay in NHPP model,proposed by Daniel R Jeske. In our model, a time-dependent delay function is established to fit the faultremoval process. By using two sets of practical data, thedescriptive and predictive abilities of the improved NHPPmodel are compared with those of the NHPP model, G-Omodel, and delayed S-shape model. The results show that the improved model can fit and predict the data better.

  20. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk; Hillebrand, Eric; Urga, Giovanni

    In this paper, we develop a maximum likelihood estimator of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models. We specify the loadings to evolve as stationary vector autoregressions (VAR) and show that consistent estimates of the loadings parameters can be obtained by a two-step maximum...... likelihood estimation procedure. In the first step, principal components are extracted from the data to form factor estimates. In the second step, the parameters of the loadings VARs are estimated as a set of univariate regression models with time-varying coefficients. We document the finite...

  1. Using video modeling with substitutable loops to teach varied play to children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupere, Sally; MacDonald, Rebecca P F; Ahearn, William H

    2013-01-01

    Children with autism often engage in repetitive play with little variation in the actions performed or items used. This study examined the use of video modeling with scripted substitutable loops on children's pretend play with trained and untrained characters. Three young children with autism were shown a video model of scripted toy play that included a substitutable loop that allowed various characters to perform the same actions and vocalizations. Three characters were modeled with the substitutable loop during training sessions, and 3 additional characters were present in the video but never modeled. Following video modeling, all the participants incorporated untrained characters into their play, but the extent to which they did so varied.

  2. An efficient hierarchical generalized linear mixed model for pathway analysis of genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lily; Jia, Peilin; Wolfinger, Russell D; Chen, Xi; Grayson, Britney L; Aune, Thomas M; Zhao, Zhongming

    2011-03-01

    In genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of complex diseases, genetic variants having real but weak associations often fail to be detected at the stringent genome-wide significance level. Pathway analysis, which tests disease association with combined association signals from a group of variants in the same pathway, has become increasingly popular. However, because of the complexities in genetic data and the large sample sizes in typical GWAS, pathway analysis remains to be challenging. We propose a new statistical model for pathway analysis of GWAS. This model includes a fixed effects component that models mean disease association for a group of genes, and a random effects component that models how each gene's association with disease varies about the gene group mean, thus belongs to the class of mixed effects models. The proposed model is computationally efficient and uses only summary statistics. In addition, it corrects for the presence of overlapping genes and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Via simulated and real GWAS data, we showed our model improved power over currently available pathway analysis methods while preserving type I error rate. Furthermore, using the WTCCC Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) dataset, we demonstrated mixed model analysis identified meaningful biological processes that agreed well with previous reports on T1D. Therefore, the proposed methodology provides an efficient statistical modeling framework for systems analysis of GWAS. The software code for mixed models analysis is freely available at http://biostat.mc.vanderbilt.edu/LilyWang.

  3. A blind separation method of overlapped multi-components based on time varying AR model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    A method utilizing single channel recordings to blindly separate the multicomponents overlapped in time and frequency domains is proposed in this paper. Based on the time varying AR model, the instantaneous frequency and amplitude of each signal component are estimated respectively, thus the signal component separation is achieved. By using prolate spheroidal sequence as basis functions to expand the time varying parameters of the AR model, the method turns the problem of linear time varying parameters estimation to a linear time invariant parameter estimation problem, then the parameters are estimated by a recursive algorithm. The computation of this method is simple, and no prior knowledge of the signals is needed. Simulation results demonstrate validity and excellent performance of this method.

  4. Probabilistic multi-item inventory model with varying mixture shortage cost under restrictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergany, Hala A

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed a new general probabilistic multi-item, single-source inventory model with varying mixture shortage cost under two restrictions. One of them is on the expected varying backorder cost and the other is on the expected varying lost sales cost. This model is formulated to analyze how the firm can deduce the optimal order quantity and the optimal reorder point for each item to reach the main goal of minimizing the expected total cost. The demand is a random variable and the lead time is a constant. The demand during the lead time is a random variable that follows any continuous distribution, for example; the normal distribution, the exponential distribution and the Chi square distribution. An application with real data is analyzed and the goal of minimization the expected total cost is achieved. Two special cases are deduced.

  5. NEW EFFICIENT ESTIMATION AND VARIABLE SELECTION METHODS FOR SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING-COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kai, Bo; Li, Runze; Zou, Hui

    2011-02-01

    The complexity of semiparametric models poses new challenges to statistical inference and model selection that frequently arise from real applications. In this work, we propose new estimation and variable selection procedures for the semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear model. We first study quantile regression estimates for the nonparametric varying-coefficient functions and the parametric regression coefficients. To achieve nice efficiency properties, we further develop a semiparametric composite quantile regression procedure. We establish the asymptotic normality of proposed estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts and show that the estimators achieve the best convergence rate. Moreover, we show that the proposed method is much more efficient than the least-squares-based method for many non-normal errors and that it only loses a small amount of efficiency for normal errors. In addition, it is shown that the loss in efficiency is at most 11.1% for estimating varying coefficient functions and is no greater than 13.6% for estimating parametric components. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we propose adaptive penalization methods for variable selection in the semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear model and prove that the methods possess the oracle property. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. Finally, we apply the new methods to analyze the plasma beta-carotene level data.

  6. Dynamics in a Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model with Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changjin Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with time-varying delays is investigated. By using the differential inequality theory, some sufficient conditions which ensure the permanence and global asymptotic stability of the system are established. The paper ends with some interesting numerical simulations that illustrate our analytical predictions.

  7. Artificial neural network modeling of DDGS flowability with varying process and storage parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neural Network (NN) modeling techniques were used to predict flowability behavior in distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prepared with varying CDS (10, 15, and 20%, wb), drying temperature (100, 200, and 300°C), cooling temperature (-12, 0, and 35°C) and cooling time (0 and 1 month) levels....

  8. Kosterlitz-Thouless transitions in simple spin-models with strongly varying vortex densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Himbergen, J.E.J.M. van

    1985-01-01

    A generalized XY-model, consisting of a family of nearest neighbour potentials of varying shape, for classical planar spins on a two-dimensional square lattice is analysed by a combination of Migdal-Kadanoff real-space renormalization and Monte Carlo simulations on a sequence of finite lattices of

  9. Empirical Likelihood Based Variable Selection for Varying Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Censored Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peixin ZHAO

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,we consider the variable selection for the parametric components of varying coefficient partially linear models with censored data.By constructing a penalized auxiliary vector ingeniously,we propose an empirical likelihood based variable selection procedure,and show that it is consistent and satisfies the sparsity.The simulation studies show that the proposed variable selection method is workable.

  10. Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C

    2012-12-20

    Simulations and Monte Carlo methods serve an important role in modern statistical research. They allow for an examination of the performance of statistical procedures in settings in which analytic and mathematical derivations may not be feasible. A key element in any statistical simulation is the existence of an appropriate data-generating process: one must be able to simulate data from a specified statistical model. We describe data-generating processes for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates when event times follow an exponential, Weibull, or Gompertz distribution. We consider three types of time-varying covariates: first, a dichotomous time-varying covariate that can change at most once from untreated to treated (e.g., organ transplant); second, a continuous time-varying covariate such as cumulative exposure at a constant dose to radiation or to a pharmaceutical agent used for a chronic condition; third, a dichotomous time-varying covariate with a subject being able to move repeatedly between treatment states (e.g., current compliance or use of a medication). In each setting, we derive closed-form expressions that allow one to simulate survival times so that survival times are related to a vector of fixed or time-invariant covariates and to a single time-varying covariate. We illustrate the utility of our closed-form expressions for simulating event times by using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power to detect as statistically significant the effect of different types of binary time-varying covariates. This is compared with the statistical power to detect as statistically significant a binary time-invariant covariate.

  11. Stochastic Modeling and Power Control of Time-Varying Wireless Communication Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Charalambous, Prof. Charalambos [University of Cyprus

    2014-01-01

    Wireless networks are characterized by nodes mobility, which makes the propagation environment time-varying and subject to fading. As a consequence, the statistical characteristics of the received signal vary continuously, giving rise to a Doppler power spectral density (DPSD) that varies from one observation instant to the next. This paper is concerned with dynamical modeling of time-varying wireless fading channels, their estimation and parameter identification, and optimal power control from received signal measurement data. The wireless channel is characterized using a stochastic state-space form and derived by approximating the time-varying DPSD of the channel. The expected maximization and Kalman filter are employed to recursively identify and estimate the channel parameters and states, respectively, from online received signal strength measured data. Moreover, we investigate a centralized optimal power control algorithm based on predictable strategies and employing the estimated channel parameters and states. The proposed models together with the estimation and power control algorithms are tested using experimental measurement data and the results are presented.

  12. A hepatitis C virus infection model with time-varying drug effectiveness: solution and analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica M Conway

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simple models of therapy for viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV or human immunodeficiency virus assume that, once therapy is started, the drug has a constant effectiveness. More realistic models have assumed either that the drug effectiveness depends on the drug concentration or that the effectiveness varies over time. Here a previously introduced varying-effectiveness (VE model is studied mathematically in the context of HCV infection. We show that while the model is linear, it has no closed-form solution due to the time-varying nature of the effectiveness. We then show that the model can be transformed into a Bessel equation and derive an analytic solution in terms of modified Bessel functions, which are defined as infinite series, with time-varying arguments. Fitting the solution to data from HCV infected patients under therapy has yielded values for the parameters in the model. We show that for biologically realistic parameters, the predicted viral decay on therapy is generally biphasic and resembles that predicted by constant-effectiveness (CE models. We introduce a general method for determining the time at which the transition between decay phases occurs based on calculating the point of maximum curvature of the viral decay curve. For the parameter regimes of interest, we also find approximate solutions for the VE model and establish the asymptotic behavior of the system. We show that the rate of second phase decay is determined by the death rate of infected cells multiplied by the maximum effectiveness of therapy, whereas the rate of first phase decline depends on multiple parameters including the rate of increase of drug effectiveness with time.

  13. Morphology of rain water channelization in systematically varied model sandy soils

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Y.; Cejas, C. M.; Barrois, R.; Dreyfus, R.; Durian, D. J.

    2014-01-01

    We visualize the formation of fingered flow in dry model sandy soils under different raining conditions using a quasi-2d experimental set-up, and systematically determine the impact of soil grain diameter and surface wetting property on water channelization phenomenon. The model sandy soils we use are random closely-packed glass beads with varied diameters and surface treatments. For hydrophilic sandy soils, our experiments show that rain water infiltrates into a shallow top layer of soil and...

  14. Core-crust transition properties of neutron stars within systematically varied extended relativistic mean-field model

    CERN Document Server

    Sulaksono, A; Agrawal, B K

    2014-01-01

    The model dependence and the symmetry energy dependence of the core-crust transition properties for the neutron stars are studied using three different families of systematically varied extended relativistic mean field model. Several forces within each of the families are so considered that they yield wide variations in the values of the nuclear symmetry energy $a_{\\rm sym}$ and its slope parameter $L$ at the saturation density. The core-crust transition density is calculated using a method based on random-phase-approximation. The core-crust transition density is strongly correlated, in a model independent manner, with the symmetry energy slope parameter evaluated at the saturation density. The pressure at the transition point dose not show any meaningful correlations with the symmetry energy parameters at the saturation density. At best, pressure at the transition point is correlated with the symmetry energy parameters and their linear combination evaluated at the some sub-saturation density. Yet, such corre...

  15. Perfect fluid Bianchi Type-I cosmological models with time varying and

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    J P Singh; R K Tiwari

    2008-04-01

    Bianchi Type-I cosmological models containing perfect fluid with time varying and have been presented. The solutions obtained represent an expansion scalar bearing a constant ratio to the anisotropy in the direction of space-like unit vector . Of the two models obtained, one has negative vacuum energy density, which decays numerically. In this model, we obtain ∼ 2, ∼ 44/ and ∼ -2 ( is the cosmic time) which is in accordance with the main dynamical laws for the decay of . The second model reduces to a static solution with repulsive gravity.

  16. Time-varying respiratory system elastance: a physiological model for patients who are spontaneously breathing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeong Shiong Chiew

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Respiratory mechanics models can aid in optimising patient-specific mechanical ventilation (MV, but the applications are limited to fully sedated MV patients who have little or no spontaneously breathing efforts. This research presents a time-varying elastance (E(drs model that can be used in spontaneously breathing patients to determine their respiratory mechanics. METHODS: A time-varying respiratory elastance model is developed with a negative elastic component (E(demand, to describe the driving pressure generated during a patient initiated breathing cycle. Data from 22 patients who are partially mechanically ventilated using Pressure Support (PS and Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA are used to investigate the physiology relevance of the time-varying elastance model and its clinical potential. E(drs of every breathing cycle for each patient at different ventilation modes are presented for comparison. RESULTS: At the start of every breathing cycle initiated by patient, E(drs is 25 cmH2Os/l and thus can be used as an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS severity indicator. CONCLUSION: The E(drs model captures unique dynamic respiratory mechanics for spontaneously breathing patients with respiratory failure. The model is fully general and is applicable to both fully controlled and partially assisted MV modes.

  17. Domain selection for the varying coefficient model via local polynomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Dehan; Bondell, Howard; Wu, Yichao

    2015-03-01

    In this article, we consider the varying coefficient model, which allows the relationship between the predictors and response to vary across the domain of interest, such as time. In applications, it is possible that certain predictors only affect the response in particular regions and not everywhere. This corresponds to identifying the domain where the varying coefficient is nonzero. Towards this goal, local polynomial smoothing and penalized regression are incorporated into one framework. Asymptotic properties of our penalized estimators are provided. Specifically, the estimators enjoy the oracle properties in the sense that they have the same bias and asymptotic variance as the local polynomial estimators as if the sparsity is known as a priori. The choice of appropriate bandwidth and computational algorithms are discussed. The proposed method is examined via simulations and a real data example.

  18. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  19. Properties of granular analogue model materials: A community wide survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinkmüller, M.; Schreurs, G.; Rosenau, M.; Kemnitz, H.

    2016-08-01

    We report the material properties of 26 granular analogue materials used in 14 analogue modelling laboratories. We determined physical characteristics such as bulk density, grain size distribution, and grain shape, and performed ring shear tests to determine friction angles and cohesion, and uniaxial compression tests to evaluate the compaction behaviour. Mean grain size of the materials varied between c. 100 and 400 μm. Analysis of grain shape factors shows that the four different classes of granular materials (14 quartz sands, 5 dyed quartz sands, 4 heavy mineral sands and 3 size fractions of glass beads) can be broadly divided into two groups consisting of 12 angular and 14 rounded materials. Grain shape has an influence on friction angles, with most angular materials having higher internal friction angles (between c. 35° and 40°) than rounded materials, whereas well-rounded glass beads have the lowest internal friction angles (between c. 25° and 30°). We interpret this as an effect of intergranular sliding versus rolling. Most angular materials have also higher basal friction angles (tested for a specific foil) than more rounded materials, suggesting that angular grains scratch and wear the foil. Most materials have an internal cohesion in the order of 20-100 Pa except for well-rounded glass beads, which show a trend towards a quasi-cohesionless (C < 20 Pa) Coulomb-type material. The uniaxial confined compression tests reveal that rounded grains generally show less compaction than angular grains. We interpret this to be related to the initial packing density after sifting, which is higher for rounded grains than for angular grains. Ring-shear test data show that angular grains undergo a longer strain-hardening phase than more rounded materials. This might explain why analogue models consisting of angular grains accommodate deformation in a more distributed manner prior to strain localisation than models consisting of rounded grains.

  20. Modeling and Analysis of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Varying Cross-Sectional Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maiara Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modeling and on the experimental verification of electromechanically coupled beams with varying cross-sectional area for piezoelectric energy harvesting. The governing equations are formulated using the Rayleigh-Ritz method and Euler-Bernoulli assumptions. A load resistance is considered in the electrical domain for the estimate of the electric power output of each geometric configuration. The model is first verified against the analytical results for a rectangular bimorph with tip mass reported in the literature. The experimental verification of the model is also reported for a tapered bimorph cantilever with tip mass. The effects of varying cross-sectional area and tip mass on the electromechanical behavior of piezoelectric energy harvesters are also discussed. An issue related to the estimation of the optimal load resistance (that gives the maximum power output on beam shape optimization problems is also discussed.

  1. VARYING COEFFICIENT MODELS FOR DATA WITH AUTO-CORRELATED ERROR PROCESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhao; Li, Runze; Li, Yan

    2015-04-01

    Varying coefficient model has been popular in the literature. In this paper, we propose a profile least squares estimation procedure to its regression coefficients when its random error is an auto-regressive (AR) process. We further study the asymptotic properties of the proposed procedure, and establish the asymptotic normality for the resulting estimate. We show that the resulting estimate for the regression coefficients has the same asymptotic bias and variance as the local linear estimate for varying coefficient models with independent and identically distributed observations. We apply the SCAD variable selection procedure (Fan and Li, 2001) to reduce model complexity of the AR error process. Numerical comparison and finite sample performance of the resulting estimate are examined by Monte Carlo studies. Our simulation results demonstrate the proposed procedure is much more efficient than the one ignoring the error correlation. The proposed methodology is illustrated by a real data example.

  2. Thermodynamic Property Model of Wide-Fluid Phase Propane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Made Astina

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available A new thermodynamic property model for propane is expressed in form of the Helmholtz free energy function. It consists of eight terms of the ideal-gas part and eighteen terms of the residual part. Accurate experimental data of fluid properties and theoretical approach from the intermolecular potential were simultaneously considered in the development to insure accuracy and to improve reliability of the equation of state over wide range of pressures and temperatures. Based on the state range of experimental data used in the model development, the validity range is judged from the triple-point of 85.48 K to temperature of 450 K and pressure up to 60 MPa. The uncertainties with respect to different properties are estimated to be 0.03% in ideal-gas isobaric specific heat, 0.2% in liquid phase density, 0.3% in gaseous phase density 1% in specific heats, 0.1% in vapor-pressure except at very low temperatures, 0.05% in saturated-liquid density, 0.02% in speed of sound of the gaseous phase and 1% in speed of sound of the liquid phase.

  3. Thermal modeling of wide bandgap materials for power MOSFETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manandhar, Mahesh B.; Matin, Mohammad A.

    2016-09-01

    This paper investigates the thermal performance of different wide bandgap (WBG) materials for their applicability as semiconductor material in power electronic devices. In particular, Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) are modeled for this purpose. These WBG materials have been known to show superior intrinsic material properties as compared to Silicon (Si), such as higher carrier mobility, lower electrical and thermal resistance. These unique properties have allowed for them to be used in power devices that can operate at higher voltages, temperatures and switching speeds with higher efficiencies. Digital prototyping of power devices have facilitated inexpensive and flexible methods for faster device development. The commercial simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics was used to simulate a 2-D model of MOSFETs of these WBG materials to observe their thermal performance under different voltage and current operating conditions. COMSOL is a simulation software that can be used to simulate temperature changes due to Joule heating in the case of power MOSFETs. COMSOL uses Finite Element/Volume Analysis methods to solve for variables in complex geometries where multiple material properties and physics are involved. The Semiconductor and Heat Transfer with Solids modules of COMSOL were used to study the thermal performance of the MOSFETs in steady state conditions. The results of the simulations for each of the two WBG materials were compared with that of Silicon to determine relative stability and merit of each material.

  4. Sensorless Modeling of Varying Pulse Width Modulator Resolutions in Three-Phase Induction Motors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, Matthew David; Shevach, Glenn

    2017-01-01

    A sensorless algorithm was developed to predict rotor speeds in an electric three-phase induction motor. This sensorless model requires a measurement of the stator currents and voltages, and the rotor speed is predicted accurately without any mechanical measurement of the rotor speed. A model of an electric vehicle undergoing acceleration was built, and the sensorless prediction of the simulation rotor speed was determined to be robust even in the presence of fluctuating motor parameters and significant sensor errors. Studies were conducted for varying pulse width modulator resolutions, and the sensorless model was accurate for all resolutions of sinusoidal voltage functions. PMID:28076418

  5. Modelling time-varying volatility in the Indian stock returns: Some empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trilochan Tripathy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper models time-varying volatility in one of the Indian main stock markets, namely, the National Stock Exchange (NSE located in Mumbai, investigating whether it has been affected by the recent global financial crisis. A Chow test indicates the presence of a structural break. Both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models suggest that the volatility of NSE returns is persistent and asymmetric and has increased as a result of the crisis. The model under the Generalized Error Distribution appears to be the most suitable one. However, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is relatively poor.

  6. Sieve M-estimation for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    This article considers a semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model.The semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear regression model which is a generalization of the partially linear regression model and varying-coefficient regression model that allows one to explore the possibly nonlinear effect of a certain covariate on the response variable.A sieve M-estimation method is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are discussed.Our main object is to estimate the nonparametric component and the unknown parameters simultaneously.It is easier to compute and the required computation burden is much less than the existing two-stage estimation method.Furthermore,the sieve M-estimation is robust in the presence of outliers if we choose appropriate ρ(·).Under some mild conditions,the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent;the convergence rate of the estimator for the unknown nonparametric component is obtained and the estimator for the unknown parameter is shown to be asymptotically normally distributed.Numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed method.

  7. Correcting for Measurement Error in Time-Varying Covariates in Marginal Structural Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, Ryan P; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B; Abrahamowicz, Michał

    2016-08-01

    Unbiased estimation of causal parameters from marginal structural models (MSMs) requires a fundamental assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Unfortunately, the time-varying covariates used to obtain inverse probability weights are often error-prone. Although substantial measurement error in important confounders is known to undermine control of confounders in conventional unweighted regression models, this issue has received comparatively limited attention in the MSM literature. Here we propose a novel application of the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure to address measurement error in time-varying covariates, and we compare 2 approaches. The direct approach to SIMEX-based correction targets outcome model parameters, while the indirect approach corrects the weights estimated using the exposure model. We assess the performance of the proposed methods in simulations under different clinically plausible assumptions. The simulations demonstrate that measurement errors in time-dependent covariates may induce substantial bias in MSM estimators of causal effects of time-varying exposures, and that both proposed SIMEX approaches yield practically unbiased estimates in scenarios featuring low-to-moderate degrees of error. We illustrate the proposed approach in a simple analysis of the relationship between sustained virological response and liver fibrosis progression among persons infected with hepatitis C virus, while accounting for measurement error in γ-glutamyltransferase, using data collected in the Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study from 2003 to 2014.

  8. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-10-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing algorithms, such as Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMLE) and stochastic approximation, often fail for this problem in the presence of model degeneracy. In this article, we introduce the varying truncation stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo (SAMCMC) algorithm to tackle this problem. The varying truncation mechanism enables the algorithm to choose an appropriate starting point and an appropriate gain factor sequence, and thus to produce a reasonable parameter estimate for the ERGM even in the presence of model degeneracy. The numerical results indicate that the varying truncation SAMCMC algorithm can significantly outperform the MCMLE and stochastic approximation algorithms: for degenerate ERGMs, MCMLE and stochastic approximation often fail to produce any reasonable parameter estimates, while SAMCMC can do; for nondegenerate ERGMs, SAMCMC can work as well as or better than MCMLE and stochastic approximation. The data and source codes used for this article are available online as supplementary materials. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  9. A river water quality model for time varying BOD discharge concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oppenheimer Seth F.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a model for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD in a semi-infinite river where the BOD is prescribed by a time varying function at the left endpoint. That is, we study the problem with a time varying boundary loading. We obtain the well-posedness for the model when the boundary loading is smooth in time. We also obtain various qualitative results such as ordering, positivity, and boundedness. Of greatest interest, we show that a periodic loading function admits a unique asymptotically attracting periodic solution. For non-smooth loading functions, we obtain weak solutions. Finally, for certain special cases, we show how to obtain explicit solutions in the form of infinite series.

  10. Delay-Dependent Asymptotic Stability of Cohen-Grossberg Models with Multiple Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liao

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical behavior of a class of Cohen-Grossberg models with multiple time-varying delays is studied in detail. Sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure local and global asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium of this network are derived by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals. The obtained conditions are shown to be less conservative and restrictive than those reported in the known literature. Some numerical examples are included to demonstrate our results.

  11. Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Anyfantaki

    2011-01-01

    analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

  12. TESTING SERIAL CORRELATION IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xuemei HU; Feng LIU; Zhizhong WANG

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a V_(N,P) test statistic for testing finite-order serial correlation in a semiparametric varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables model. The test statistic is shown to have asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Some Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed V_(N,P) test statistic. Simulation results confirm that the proposed test performs satisfactorily in estimated size and power.

  13. Time-varying tolls in a dynamic model of road traffic congestion with elastic demand

    OpenAIRE

    Verhoef, E.T.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, a dynamic model of road traffic congestion is presented, with an elastic overall demand for morning peak road usage, and with the congestion technology used being 'flow congestion'. It is demonstrated that in such a case, the optimal time-varying toll should include a 'flat', time-invariant component when road users share the same desired arrival time. This has important consequences for the design of optimal toll schemes in reality, because it implies that optimal tolls cannot...

  14. Variable Selection for Varying-Coefficient Models with Missing Response at Random

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pei Xin ZHAO; Liu Gen XUE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximations with penalized estimating equations for varying-coefficient models with missing response at random. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the optimal convergence rate of the regularized estimators. A simulation study is undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection procedure.

  15. Modeling rainfall-runoff processes using smoothed particle hydrodynamics with mass-varied particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Chang, Kao-Hua

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a novel treatment of adopting mass-varied particles in smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is proposed to solve the shallow water equations (SWEs) and model the rainfall-runoff process. Since SWEs have depth-averaged or cross-section-averaged features, there is no sufficient dimension to add rainfall particles. Thus, SPH-SWE methods have focused on modeling discharge flows in open channels or floodplains without rainfall. With the proposed treatment, the application of SPH-SWEs can be extended to rainfall-runoff processes in watersheds. First, the numerical procedures associated with using mass-varied particles in SPH-SWEs are introduced and derived. Then, numerical validations are conducted for three benchmark problems, including uniform rainfall over a 1D flat sloping channel, nonuniform rain falling over a 1D three-slope channel with different rainfall durations, and uniform rainfall over a 2D plot with complex topography. The simulated results indicate that the proposed treatment can avoid the necessity of a source term function of mass variation, and no additional particles are needed for the increase of mass. Rainfall-runoff processes can be well captured in the presence of hydraulic jumps, dry/wet bed flows, and supercritical/subcritical/transcritical flows. The proposed treatment using mass-varied particles was proven robust and reliable for modeling rainfall-runoff processes. It can provide a new alternative for investigating practical hydrological problems.

  16. Nonparametric Independence Screening in Sparse Ultra-High Dimensional Varying Coefficient Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Ma, Yunbei; Dai, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The varying-coefficient model is an important class of nonparametric statistical model that allows us to examine how the effects of covariates vary with exposure variables. When the number of covariates is large, the issue of variable selection arises. In this paper, we propose and investigate marginal nonparametric screening methods to screen variables in sparse ultra-high dimensional varying-coefficient models. The proposed nonparametric independence screening (NIS) selects variables by ranking a measure of the nonparametric marginal contributions of each covariate given the exposure variable. The sure independent screening property is established under some mild technical conditions when the dimensionality is of nonpolynomial order, and the dimensionality reduction of NIS is quantified. To enhance the practical utility and finite sample performance, two data-driven iterative NIS methods are proposed for selecting thresholding parameters and variables: conditional permutation and greedy methods, resulting in Conditional-INIS and Greedy-INIS. The effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed methods are further illustrated by simulation studies and real data applications.

  17. First order coupled dynamic model of flexible space structures with time-varying configurations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Li, Dongxu; Jiang, Jianping

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a first order coupled dynamic modeling method for flexible space structures with time-varying configurations for the purpose of deriving the characteristics of the system. The model considers the first time derivative of the coordinate transformation matrix between the platform's body frame and the appendage's floating frame. As a result it can accurately predict characteristics of the system even if flexible appendages rotate with complex trajectory relative to the rigid part. In general, flexible appendages are fixed on the rigid platform or forced to rotate with a slow angular velocity. So only the zero order of the transformation matrix is considered in conventional models. However, due to neglecting of time-varying terms of the transformation matrix, these models introduce severe error when appendages, like antennas, for example, rotate with a fast speed relative to the platform. The first order coupled dynamic model for flexible space structures proposed in this paper resolve this problem by introducing the first time derivative of the transformation matrix. As a numerical example, a central core with a rotating solar panel is considered and the results are compared with those given by the conventional model. It has been shown that the first order terms are of great importance on the attitude of the rigid body and dynamic response of the flexible appendage.

  18. A Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Model for Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manish Kumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR model with time-varying parameters (TVP to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR/US dollar (USD exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a blend of the flexible least squares and Kalman filter techniques. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the TVP-VAR model is evaluated against the simple VAR and ARIMA models, by employing a cross-validation process and metrics such as mean absolute error, root mean square error, and directional accuracy. Outof-sample results in terms of conventional forecast evaluation statistics and directional accuracy show TVP-VAR model consistently outperforms the simple VAR and ARIMA models.

  19. Effects of varying temporal scale on spatial models of mortality patterns attributed to pediatric diarrhea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyk, S; McCormick, BJJ; Nuckols, JR

    2011-01-01

    Public health data is often highly aggregated in time and space. The consequences of temporal aggregation for modeling in support of policy decisions have largely been overlooked. We examine the effects of changing temporal scale on spatial regression models of pediatric diarrhea mortality patterns, mortality rates and mortality peak timing, in Mexico. We compare annual and decadal level univariate models that incorporate known risk factors. Based on normalized sums of squared differences we compare between annual and decadal coefficients for variables that were significant in decadal models. We observed that spurious relationships might be created through aggregating time scales; eliminating inter-annual variation and resulting in inflated model diagnostics. In fact, variable selection and coefficient values can vary with changing temporal aggregation. Some variables that were significant at the decadal level were not significant at the annual level. Implications of such aggregation should be part of risk communication to policy makers. PMID:22623950

  20. Modeling Latin-American stock markets volatility: Varying probabilities and mean reversion in a random level shift model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Rodríguez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Following Xu and Perron (2014, I applied the extended RLS model to the daily stock market returns of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. This model replaces the constant probability of level shifts for the entire sample with varying probabilities that record periods with extremely negative returns. Furthermore, it incorporates a mean reversion mechanism with which the magnitude and the sign of the level shift component vary in accordance with past level shifts that deviate from the long-term mean. Therefore, four RLS models are estimated: the Basic RLS, the RLS with varying probabilities, the RLS with mean reversion, and a combined RLS model with mean reversion and varying probabilities. The results show that the estimated parameters are highly significant, especially that of the mean reversion model. An analysis of ARFIMA and GARCH models is also performed in the presence of level shifts, which shows that once these shifts are taken into account in the modeling, the long memory characteristics and GARCH effects disappear. Also, I find that the performance prediction of the RLS models is superior to the classic models involving long memory as the ARFIMA(p,d,q models, the GARCH and the FIGARCH models. The evidence indicates that except in rare exceptions, the RLS models (in all its variants are showing the best performance or belong to the 10% of the Model Confidence Set (MCS. On rare occasions the GARCH and the ARFIMA models appear to dominate but they are rare exceptions. When the volatility is measured by the squared returns, the great exception is Argentina where a dominance of GARCH and FIGARCH models is appreciated.

  1. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froese, Jens G; Smith, Carl S; Durr, Peter A; McAlpine, Clive A; van Klinken, Rieks D

    2017-01-01

    Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  2. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

  3. Use of the varying coefficient model in an exercise and depression meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, George A; Kelley, Kristi S

    2012-06-26

    Use a recently developed varying coefficient model to determine the effects of exercise in adults with depression. Data from a recent meta-analysis addressing the effects of exercise on depression in adults were used. Studies were limited to randomized controlled intervention trials of any type of chronic exercise (for example, walking and jogging) in adults greater than or equal to 18 years of age with a diagnosis of depression. For each study, the standardized mean difference (exercise minus control) effect size for depression, adjusted for small-sample bias, was calculated. Variance statistics for each effect size and pooling of results were calculated using the recently proposed varying coefficient (VC) model for standardized mean differences. Standardized effect-sizes of 0.20, 0.50 and 0.80 were considered to represent small, medium and large effects. Results were considered statistically significant if the 95% confidence intervals did not cross 0, with negative results indicative of reductions in depression. These findings were then compared with results using traditional random-effects (RE) models. A total of 23 studies representing 907 men and women (476 exercise, 431 control) were pooled for analysis. Both RE and VC models resulted in large, statistically significant improvements in depression as a result of exercise in adults. However, the VC model resulted in a larger overall effect size as well as confidence intervals that were narrower than previously reported using the RE model. The overall mean effect size for the RE model was -0.82 with a 95% confidence interval of -1.12 to -0.51. For the VC model, overall mean effect size was -0.88 with a 95% confidence interval of -1.08 to -0.68. The relative difference between the RE and VC approaches was 7.3%. The VC model, a potentially preferable model, confirms the positive effects of exercise on depression in adults.

  4. Global Stability Analysis for an Internet Congestion Control Model with a Time-Varying Link Capacity

    CERN Document Server

    Rezaie, B; Analoui, M; Khorsandi, S

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a global stability analysis is given for a rate-based congestion control system modeled by a nonlinear delayed differential equation. The model determines the dynamics of a single-source single-link network, with a time-varying capacity of link and a fixed communication delay. We obtain a sufficient delay-independent conditions on system parameters under which global asymptotic stability of the system is guarantied. The proof is based on an extension of Lyapunov-Krasovskii theorem for a class of nonlinear time-delay systems. The numerical simulations for a typical scenario justify the theoretical results.

  5. Deterministic inventory model for items with Time varying demand, weibull distribution deterioration and shortages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Kun-Shan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an EOQ inventory model is depleted not only by time varying demand but also by Weibull distribution deterioration, in which the inventory is permitted to start with shortages and end without shortages. A theory is developed to obtain the optimal solution of the problem; it is then illustrated with the aid of several numerical examples. Moreover, we also assume that the holding cost is a continuous, non-negative and non-decreasing function of time in order to extend the EOQ model. Finally, sensitivity of the optimal solution to changes in the values of different system parameters is also studied.

  6. Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-liang REN; Gui-zuo WANG; Fang LU; Tian-fang FANG

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC) model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.

  7. Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-liang REN

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.

  8. Morphology of Rain Water Channeling in Systematically Varied Model Sandy Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yuli; Cejas, Cesare M.; Barrois, Rémi; Dreyfus, Rémi; Durian, Douglas J.

    2014-10-01

    We visualize the formation of fingered flow in dry model sandy soils under different rain conditions using a quasi-2D experimental setup and systematically determine the impact of the soil grain diameter and surface wetting properties on the water channeling phenomenon. The model sandy soils we use are random closely packed glass beads with varied diameters and surface treatments. For hydrophilic sandy soils, our experiments show that rain water infiltrates a shallow top layer of soil and creates a horizontal water wetting front that grows downward homogeneously until instabilities occur to form fingered flows. For hydrophobic sandy soils, in contrast, we observe that rain water ponds on the top of the soil surface until the hydraulic pressure is strong enough to overcome the capillary repellency of soil and create narrow water channels that penetrate the soil packing. Varying the raindrop impinging speed has little influence on water channel formation. However, varying the rain rate causes significant changes in the water infiltration depth, water channel width, and water channel separation. At a fixed rain condition, we combine the effects of the grain diameter and surface hydrophobicity into a single parameter and determine its influence on the water infiltration depth, water channel width, and water channel separation. We also demonstrate the efficiency of several soil water improvement methods that relate to the rain water channeling phenomenon, including prewetting sandy soils at different levels before rainfall, modifying soil surface flatness, and applying superabsorbent hydrogel particles as soil modifiers.

  9. A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiarella, Carl [School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney, P.O. Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007 (Australia)]. E-mail: carl.chiarella@uts.edu.au; He Xuezhong [School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney, P.O. Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007 (Australia); Wang, Duo [LMAM, Department of Financial Mathematics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

    2006-08-15

    We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model.

  10. A composite numerical model for wave diffraction in a harbor with varying water depth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Ming; TENG Bin

    2004-01-01

    A composite numerical model is presented for computing the wave field in a harbor. The mild slope equation is discretized by a finite element method in the domain concerned. Out of the computational domain, the water depth is assumed to be constant. The boundary element method is applied to the outer boundary for dealing with the infinite boundary condition. Because the model satisfies strictly the infinite boundary condition, more accurate results can be obtained. The model is firstly applied to compute the wave diffraction in a narrow rectangular bay and the wave diffraction from a porous cylinder. The numerical results are compared with the analytical solution, experimental data and other numerical results. Good agreements are obtained. Then the model is applied to computing the wave diffraction in a square harbor with varying water depth. The effects of the water depth in the harbor and the incoming wave direction on the wave height distribution are discussed.

  11. EOQ Models for Deteriorating Items with Time-varying Demand and Partial Backorder under Inflation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ShanlinYang; YongwuZhou

    2004-01-01

    This paper, through the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach, considers inventory replenishment problems for deteriorating items with general time-varying demand over a finite planning horizon under inflation. The optimal replenishment policies for the total profit of system to be maximum are presented with partial backlogging. Moreover, the fraction of demand backlogged is assumed to be a non-increasing function of waiting time. Firstly, the models with a fixed fraction backorder and complete backorder are provided. Then the model is presented with assuming that the fraction of demand backlogged is an exponentially decreasing function of waiting time. The solution procedures of models are proposed. The effect of inflation on the optimal policies is shown. The models are illustrated through numerical examples and sensitivity analysis of parameters is given.

  12. A mathematical model for batch and continuous thickening of flocculent suspensions in vessels with varying section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, R.; Damasceno, J.J.R.; Karlesen, K.H.

    2001-10-01

    The phenomenological theory of continuous thickening of flocculated suspensions in an ideal cylindrical thickener is extended to vessels having varying cross-section, including divergent or convergent conical vessels. The purpose of this contribution is to draw attention to the corresponding mathematical model, whose key ingredient is a strongly degenerate parabolic partial differential equation. For ideal (non-flocculated) suspensions, which do not form co compressible sediments, the mathematical model reduces to the kinematic approach by Anestis, who developed a method of construction of exact solution by the method of characteristics. The difficulty lies in the fact that characteristics and iso-concentration lines, unlike the conventional Kynch model for cylindrical vessels, do not coincide, and one has to resort to numerical methods to simulate the thickening process. A numerical algorithm is presented and employed for simulations of continuous thickening. Implications of the mathematical model are also demonstrated by steady-state calculations, which lead to new possibilities in thickener design. (author)

  13. Symbolic Models for Nonlinear Time-Varying Time-Delay Systems via Alternating Approximate Bisimulation

    CERN Document Server

    Pola, Giordano; Di Benedetto, Maria Domenica

    2010-01-01

    Time-delay systems are an important class of dynamical systems that provide a solid mathematical framework to deal with many application domains of interest. In this paper we focus on nonlinear control systems with unknown and time-varying delay signals and we propose one approach to the control design of such systems, which is based on the construction of symbolic models. Symbolic models are abstract descriptions of dynamical systems in which one symbolic state and one symbolic input correspond to an aggregate of states and an aggregate of inputs. We first introduce the notion of incremental input-delay-to-state stability and characterize it by means of Liapunov-Krasovskii functionals. We then derive sufficient conditions for the existence of symbolic models that are shown to be alternating approximately bisimilar to the original system. Further results are also derived which prove the computability of the proposed symbolic models in a finite number of steps.

  14. Modeling the Plasma Flow in the Inner Heliosheath with a Spatially Varying Compression Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolaou, G.; Livadiotis, G.

    2017-03-01

    We examine a semi-analytical non-magnetic model of the termination shock location previously developed by Exarhos & Moussas. In their study, the plasma flow beyond the shock is considered incompressible and irrotational, thus the flow potential is analytically derived from the Laplace equation. Here we examine the characteristics of the downstream flow in the heliosheath in order to resolve several inconsistencies existing in the Exarhos & Moussas model. In particular, the model is modified in order to be consistent with the Rankine-Hugoniot jump conditions and the geometry of the termination shock. It is shown that a shock compression ratio varying along the latitude can lead to physically correct results. We describe the new model and present several simplified examples for a nearly spherical, strong termination shock. Under those simplifications, the upstream plasma is nearly adiabatic for large (˜100 AU) heliosheath thickness.

  15. Persistence and distribution of a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model with varying population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lihong; Wei, Fengying

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, the dynamics of a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model in a population with varying size is investigated. We firstly show that the stochastic epidemic model has a unique global positive solution with any positive initial value. Then we verify that random perturbations lead to extinction when some conditions are being valid. Moreover, we prove that the solution of the stochastic epidemic model is persistent in the mean by building up a suitable Lyapunov function and using generalized Itô's formula. Further, the stochastic epidemic model admits a stationary distribution around the endemic equilibrium when parameters satisfy some sufficient conditions. To end this contribution and to check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are separately carried out to illustrate these results.

  16. Handling Qualities of Model Reference Adaptive Controllers with Varying Complexity for Pitch-Roll Coupled Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Jacob; Hanson, Curt; Johnson, Marcus A.; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    Three model reference adaptive controllers (MRAC) with varying levels of complexity were evaluated on a high performance jet aircraft and compared along with a baseline nonlinear dynamic inversion controller. The handling qualities and performance of the controllers were examined during failure conditions that induce coupling between the pitch and roll axes. Results from flight tests showed with a roll to pitch input coupling failure, the handling qualities went from Level 2 with the baseline controller to Level 1 with the most complex MRAC tested. A failure scenario with the left stabilator frozen also showed improvement with the MRAC. Improvement in performance and handling qualities was generally seen as complexity was incrementally added; however, added complexity usually corresponds to increased verification and validation effort required for certification. The tradeoff between complexity and performance is thus important to a controls system designer when implementing an adaptive controller on an aircraft. This paper investigates this relation through flight testing of several controllers of vary complexity.

  17. Varying total population enhances disease persistence: Qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huicong; Peng, Rui; Wang, Feng-Bin

    2017-01-01

    This paper performs qualitative analysis on an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion system with a linear source in spatially heterogeneous environment. The main feature of our model lies in that its total population number varies, compared to its counterpart proposed by Allen et al. [2]. The uniform bounds of solutions are derived, based on which, the threshold dynamics in terms of the basic reproduction number is established and the global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is discussed when spatial environment is homogeneous. In particular, the asymptotic profile of endemic equilibria is determined if the diffusion rate of the susceptible or infected population is small or large. The theoretical results show that a varying total population can enhance persistence of infectious disease, and therefore the disease becomes more threatening and harder to control.

  18. Spectrum Sensing Based on Censored Observations in Time-Varying Channels using AR-1 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhaval K Patel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-parametric sensing algorithms are preferred in cognitive radio. In this paper, spectrum sensing method based on censored observations is proposed. We evaluate the performance of Censored Anderson-Darling (CAD sensing method in time-varying and flat-fading channel using Monte Carlo simulations. We have shown the performance of the CAD sensing in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC. The considered channel is modeled by Gaussian variables and characterized by a first ordered autoregressive process ($AR1$. It is shown that the proposed method outperforms prevailing techniques such as the Energy detection (ED sensing and  Order-statistic (OS based sensing in time-varying channel at lower signal to noise ratio.

  19. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  20. Dynamical System Approach to Cosmological Models with a Varying Speed of Light

    CERN Document Server

    Szydlowski, M; Szydlowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam

    2003-01-01

    Methods of dynamical systems have been used to study homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models with a varying speed of light (VSL). We propose two methods of reduction of dynamics to the form of planar Hamiltonian dynamical systems for models with a time dependent equation of state. The solutions are analyzed on two-dimensional phase space in the variables $(x, \\dot{x})$ where $x$ is a function of a scale factor $a$. Then we show how the horizon problem may be solved on some evolutional paths. It is shown that the models with negative curvature overcome the horizon and flatness problems. The presented method of reduction can be adopted to the analysis of dynamics of the universe with the general form of the equation of state $p=\\gamma(a)\\epsilon$. This is demonstrated using as an example the dynamics of VSL models filled with a non-interacting fluid. We demonstrate a new type of evolution near the initial singularity caused by a varying speed of light. The singularity-free oscillating universes are also a...

  1. A boundary element model for diffraction of water waves on varying water depth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poulin, Sanne

    1997-12-31

    In this thesis a boundary element model for calculating diffraction of water waves on varying water depth is presented. The varying water depth is approximated with a perturbed constant depth in the mild-slope wave equation. By doing this, the domain integral which is a result of the varying depth is no longer a function of the unknown wave potential but only a function of position and the constant depth wave potential. The number of unknowns is the resulting system of equations is thus reduced significantly. The integration procedures in the model are tested very thoroughly and it is found that a combination of analytical integration in the singular region and standard numerical integration outside works very well. The gradient of the wave potential is evaluated successfully using a hypersingular integral equation. Deviations from the analytical solution are only found on the boundary or very close to, but these deviations have no significant influence on the accuracy of the solution. The domain integral is evaluated using the dual reciprocity method. The results are compared with a direct integration of the integral, and the accuracy is quite satisfactory. The problem with irregular frequencies is taken care of by the CBIEM (or CHIEF-method) together with a singular value decomposition technique. This method is simple to implement and works very well. The model is verified using Homma`s island as a test case. The test cases are limited to shallow water since the analytical solution is only valid in this region. Several depth ratios are examined, and it is found that the accuracy of the model increases with increasing wave period and decreasing depth ratio. Short waves, e.g. wind generated waves, can allow depth variations up to approximately 2 before the error exceeds 10%, while long waves can allow larger depth ratios. It is concluded that the perturbation idea is highly usable. A study of (partially) absorbing boundary conditions is also conducted. (EG)

  2. Bianchi type-V dark energy model with varying EoS parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Saha, Bijan

    2012-01-01

    Within the scope of an anisotropic Bianchi type-V cosmological model we have studied the evolution of the universe. The assumption of a diagonal energy-momentum tensor leads to some severe restriction on the metric functions, which on its part imposes restriction on the components of the energy momentum tensor. This model allows anisotropic matter distribution. Further using the proportionality condition that relates the shear scalar $(\\sigma)$ in the model is proportional to expansion scalar $(\\vartheta)$ and the variation law of Hubble parameter, connecting Hubble parameter with volume scale. Exact solution to the corresponding equations are obtained. The EoS parameter for dark energy as well as deceleration parameter is found to be the time varying functions. A qualitative picture of the evolution of the universe corresponding to different of its stages is given using the latest observational data.

  3. Time-Varying FOPDT Modeling and On-line Parameter Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Zhenyu; Sun, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    A type of Time-Varying First-Order Plus Dead-Time (TV-FOPDT) model is extended from SISO format into a MISO version by explicitly taking the disturbance input into consideration. Correspondingly, a set of on-line parameter identification algorithms oriented to MISO TV-FOPDT model are proposed bas...... are firstly illustrated through a numerical example, and then applied to investigate transient superheat dynamic modeling in a supermarket refrigeration system....... on the Mixed-Integer-Nonlinear Programming, Least-Mean-Square and sliding window techniques. The proposed approaches can simultaneously estimate the time-dependent system parameters, as well as the unknown disturbance input if it is the case, in an on-line manner. The proposed concepts and algorithms...

  4. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate nonlinear, parameter-varying (PV),...

  5. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; DeSanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R.; Kersebaum, K. Christian

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  6. Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data With Mixtures of Nonparametric Trajectories and Time-Varying Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J.; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P.

    2015-01-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, inter-individual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semi-parametric regression modeling, in order to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. PMID:26390169

  7. Modeling brain injury response for rotational velocities of varying directions and magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Ashley A; Danelson, Kerry A; Stitzel, Joel D

    2012-09-01

    An estimated 1.7 million people in the United States sustain a traumatic brain injury (TBI) annually. To investigate the effects of rotational motions on TBI risk and location, this study modeled rotational velocities of five magnitudes and 26 directions of rotation using the Simulated Injury Monitor finite element brain model. The volume fraction of the total brain exceeding a predetermined strain threshold, the Cumulative Strain Damage Measure (CSDM), was investigated to evaluate global model response. To evaluate regional response, this metric was computed relative to individual brain structures and termed the Structure Cumulative Strain Damage Measure (SCSDM). CSDM increased as input magnitude increased and varied with the direction of rotation. CSDM was 0.55-1.7 times larger in simulations with transverse plane rotation compared to those without transverse plane rotation. The largest SCSDM in the cerebrum and brainstem occurred with rotations in the transverse and sagittal planes, respectively. Velocities causing medial rotation of the cerebellum resulted in the largest SCSDM in this structure. For velocities of the same magnitude, injury risk calculated from CSDM varied from 0 to 97% with variations in the direction of rotation. These findings demonstrate injury risk, as estimated by CSDM and SCSDM, is affected by the direction of rotation and input magnitude, and these may be important considerations for injury prediction.

  8. Estimation of Bid Curves in Power Exchanges using Time-varying Simultaneous-Equations Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofuji, Kenta; Yamaguchi, Nobuyuki

    Simultaneous-equations model (SEM) is generally used in economics to estimate interdependent endogenous variables such as price and quantity in a competitive, equilibrium market. In this paper, we have attempted to apply SEM to JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange) spot market, a single-price auction market, using the publicly available data of selling and buying bid volumes, system price and traded quantity. The aim of this analysis is to understand the magnitude of influences to the auctioned prices and quantity from the selling and buying bids, than to forecast prices and quantity for risk management purposes. In comparison with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation where the estimation results represent average values that are independent of time, we employ a time-varying simultaneous-equations model (TV-SEM) to capture structural changes inherent in those influences, using State Space models with Kalman filter stepwise estimation. The results showed that the buying bid volumes has that highest magnitude of influences among the factors considered, exhibiting time-dependent changes, ranging as broad as about 240% of its average. The slope of the supply curve also varies across time, implying the elastic property of the supply commodity, while the demand curve remains comparatively inelastic and stable over time.

  9. Performance of growth mixture models in the presence of time-varying covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Thierno M O; Morin, Alexandre J S; Lu, HuiZhong

    2016-10-31

    Growth mixture modeling is often used to identify unobserved heterogeneity in populations. Despite the usefulness of growth mixture modeling in practice, little is known about the performance of this data analysis technique in the presence of time-varying covariates. In the present simulation study, we examined the impacts of five design factors: the proportion of the total variance of the outcome explained by the time-varying covariates, the number of time points, the error structure, the sample size, and the mixing ratio. More precisely, we examined the impact of these factors on the accuracy of parameter and standard error estimates, as well as on the class enumeration accuracy. Our results showed that the consistent Akaike information criterion (CAIC), the sample-size-adjusted CAIC (SCAIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the integrated completed likelihood criterion (ICL-BIC) proved to be highly reliable indicators of the true number of latent classes in the data, across design conditions, and that the sample-size-adjusted BIC (SBIC) also proved quite accurate, especially in larger samples. In contrast, the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the entropy, the normalized entropy criterion (NEC), and the classification likelihood criterion (CLC) proved to be unreliable indicators of the true number of latent classes in the data. Our results also showed that substantial biases in the parameter and standard error estimates tended to be associated with growth mixture models that included only four time points.

  10. Oscillating dark energy model in plane symmetric space-time with time periodic varying deceleration parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    She, M.; Jiang, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, an oscillating dark energy model is presented in an isotropic but inhomogeneous plane symmetric space-time by considering a time periodic varying deceleration parameter. We find three different types of new solutions which describe different scenarios of oscillating universe. The first two solutions show an oscillating universe with singularities. For the third one, the universe is singularity-free during the whole evolution. Moreover, the Hubble parameter oscillates and keeps positive which explores an interesting possibility to unify the early inflation and late time acceleration of the universe.

  11. Normalized least-squares estimation in time-varying ARCH models

    OpenAIRE

    Fryzlewicz, Piotr; Sapatinas, Theofanis; Subba Rao, Suhasini

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further study of parameter estimation methods for the model. ¶ Since the parameters are changing over time, a successful estimator needs to perform well for small samples. We propose a kernel normalized-least-squares (kernel-NLS) estimator which has a closed form...

  12. Estimation of Semi-Varying Coefficient Model with Surrogate Data and Validation Sampling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ya-zhao L(U); Ri-quan ZHANG; Zhen-sheng HUANG

    2013-01-01

    In this paper,we investigate the estimation of semi-varying coefficient models when the nonlinear covariates are prone to measurement error.With the help of validation sampling,we propose two estimators of the parameter and the coefficient functions by combining dimension reduction and the profile likelihood methods without any error structure equation specification or error distribution assumption.We establish the asymptotic normality of proposed estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts and show that the proposed estimators achieves the best convergence rate.Data-driven bandwidth selection methods are also discussed.Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample property of the estimation methods proposed.

  13. Quantitative modeling of Escherichia coli chemotactic motion in environments varying in space and time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Jiang

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Escherichia coli chemotactic motion in spatiotemporally varying environments is studied by using a computational model based on a coarse-grained description of the intracellular signaling pathway dynamics. We find that the cell's chemotaxis drift velocity v(d is a constant in an exponential attractant concentration gradient [L] proportional, variantexp(Gx. v(d depends linearly on the exponential gradient G before it saturates when G is larger than a critical value G(C. We find that G(C is determined by the intracellular adaptation rate k(R with a simple scaling law: G(C infinity k(1/2(R. The linear dependence of v(d on G = d(ln[L]/dx directly demonstrates E. coli's ability in sensing the derivative of the logarithmic attractant concentration. The existence of the limiting gradient G(C and its scaling with k(R are explained by the underlying intracellular adaptation dynamics and the flagellar motor response characteristics. For individual cells, we find that the overall average run length in an exponential gradient is longer than that in a homogeneous environment, which is caused by the constant kinase activity shift (decrease. The forward runs (up the gradient are longer than the backward runs, as expected; and depending on the exact gradient, the (shorter backward runs can be comparable to runs in a spatially homogeneous environment, consistent with previous experiments. In (spatial ligand gradients that also vary in time, the chemotaxis motion is damped as the frequency omega of the time-varying spatial gradient becomes faster than a critical value omega(c, which is controlled by the cell's chemotaxis adaptation rate k(R. Finally, our model, with no adjustable parameters, agrees quantitatively with the classical capillary assay experiments where the attractant concentration changes both in space and time. Our model can thus be used to study E. coli chemotaxis behavior in arbitrary spatiotemporally varying environments. Further experiments are

  14. Variable Selection for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Missing Response at Random

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pei Xin ZHAO; Liu Gen XUE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,we present a variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximations with penalized estimating equations for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models with missing response at random.The proposed procedure simultaneously selects significant variables in parametric components and nonparametric components.With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters,we establish the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the convergence rate of the regularized estimators.A simulation study is undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection procedure.

  15. AST: Activity-Security-Trust driven modeling of time varying networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Xu, Jiake; Liu, Yanheng; Deng, Weiwen

    2016-02-18

    Network modeling is a flexible mathematical structure that enables to identify statistical regularities and structural principles hidden in complex systems. The majority of recent driving forces in modeling complex networks are originated from activity, in which an activity potential of a time invariant function is introduced to identify agents' interactions and to construct an activity-driven model. However, the new-emerging network evolutions are already deeply coupled with not only the explicit factors (e.g. activity) but also the implicit considerations (e.g. security and trust), so more intrinsic driving forces behind should be integrated into the modeling of time varying networks. The agents undoubtedly seek to build a time-dependent trade-off among activity, security, and trust in generating a new connection to another. Thus, we reasonably propose the Activity-Security-Trust (AST) driven model through synthetically considering the explicit and implicit driving forces (e.g. activity, security, and trust) underlying the decision process. AST-driven model facilitates to more accurately capture highly dynamical network behaviors and figure out the complex evolution process, allowing a profound understanding of the effects of security and trust in driving network evolution, and improving the biases induced by only involving activity representations in analyzing the dynamical processes.

  16. A time-varying subjective quality model for mobile streaming videos with stalling events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Pan, Janice; Bovik, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Over-the-top mobile video streaming is invariably influenced by volatile network conditions which cause playback interruptions (stalling events), thereby impairing users' quality of experience (QoE). Developing models that can accurately predict users' QoE could enable the more efficient design of quality-control protocols for video streaming networks that reduce network operational costs while still delivering high-quality video content to the customers. Existing objective models that predict QoE are based on global video features, such as the number of stall events and their lengths, and are trained and validated on a small pool of ad hoc video datasets, most of which are not publicly available. The model we propose in this work goes beyond previous models as it also accounts for the fundamental effect that a viewer's recent level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction has on their overall viewing experience. In other words, the proposed model accounts for and adapts to the recency, or hysteresis effect caused by a stall event in addition to accounting for the lengths, frequency of occurrence, and the positions of stall events - factors that interact in a complex way to affect a user's QoE. On the recently introduced LIVE-Avvasi Mobile Video Database, which consists of 180 distorted videos of varied content that are afflicted solely with over 25 unique realistic stalling events, we trained and validated our model to accurately predict the QoE, attaining standout QoE prediction performance.

  17. Changing dynamics: Time-varying autoregressive models using generalized additive modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringmann, Laura F; Hamaker, Ellen L; Vigo, Daniel E; Aubert, André; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2017-09-01

    In psychology, the use of intensive longitudinal data has steeply increased during the past decade. As a result, studying temporal dependencies in such data with autoregressive modeling is becoming common practice. However, standard autoregressive models are often suboptimal as they assume that parameters are time-invariant. This is problematic if changing dynamics (e.g., changes in the temporal dependency of a process) govern the time series. Often a change in the process, such as emotional well-being during therapy, is the very reason why it is interesting and important to study psychological dynamics. As a result, there is a need for an easily applicable method for studying such nonstationary processes that result from changing dynamics. In this article we present such a tool: the semiparametric TV-AR model. We show with a simulation study and an empirical application that the TV-AR model can approximate nonstationary processes well if there are at least 100 time points available and no unknown abrupt changes in the data. Notably, no prior knowledge of the processes that drive change in the dynamic structure is necessary. We conclude that the TV-AR model has significant potential for studying changing dynamics in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. The Three-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Wide Gap Taylor-Couette Flow Modelled by CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shina Adebayo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical investigation is conducted for the flow between two concentric cylinders with a wide gap, relevant to bearing chamber applications. This wide gap configuration has received comparatively less attention than narrow gap journal bearing type geometries. The flow in the gap between an inner rotating cylinder and an outer stationary cylinder has been modelled as an incompressible flow using an implicit finite volume RANS scheme with the realisable k-ε model. The model flow is above the critical Taylor number at which axisymmetric counterrotating Taylor vortices are formed. The tangential velocity profiles at all axial locations are different from typical journal bearing applications, where the velocity profiles are quasilinear. The predicted results led to two significant findings of impact in rotating machinery operations. Firstly, the axial variation of the tangential velocity gradient induces an axially varying shear stress, resulting in local bands of enhanced work input to the working fluid. This is likely to cause unwanted heat transfer on the surface in high torque turbomachinery applications. Secondly, the radial inflow at the axial end-wall boundaries is likely to promote the transport of debris to the junction between the end-collar and the rotating cylinder, causing the build-up of fouling in the seal.

  19. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly...... over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  20. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Youbing, E-mail: youbing-yin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Choi, Jiwoong, E-mail: jiwoong-choi@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Hoffman, Eric A., E-mail: eric-hoffman@uiowa.edu [Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Tawhai, Merryn H., E-mail: m.tawhai@auckland.ac.nz [Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand); Lin, Ching-Long, E-mail: ching-long-lin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C{sub 1} continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung.

  1. Finite element analysis to characterize how varying patellar loading influences pressure applied to cartilage: model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Kushal S; Saranathan, Archana; Koya, Bharath; Elias, John J

    2015-01-01

    A finite element analysis (FEA) modeling technique has been developed to characterize how varying the orientation of the patellar tendon influences the patellofemoral pressure distribution. To evaluate the accuracy of the technique, models were created from MRI images to represent five knees that were previously tested in vitro to determine the influence of hamstrings loading on patellofemoral contact pressures. Hamstrings loading increased the lateral and posterior orientation of the patellar tendon. Each model was loaded at 40°, 60°, and 80° of flexion with quadriceps force vectors representing the experimental loading conditions. The orientation of the patellar tendon was represented for the loaded and unloaded hamstrings conditions based on experimental measures of tibiofemoral alignment. Similar to the experimental data, simulated loading of the hamstrings within the FEA models shifted the center of pressure laterally and increased the maximum lateral pressure. Significant (p pressure and maximum lateral pressure from paired t-tests carried out at the individual flexion angles. The ability to replicate experimental trends indicates that the FEA models can be used for future studies focused on determining how variations in the orientation of the patellar tendon related to anatomical or loading variations or surgical procedures influence the patellofemoral pressure distribution.

  2. Development of an Improved Time Varying Loudness Model with the Inclusion of Binaural Loudness Summation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonneau, Jeremy

    As the perceived quality of a product is becoming more important in the manufacturing industry, more emphasis is being placed on accurately predicting the sound quality of everyday objects. This study was undertaken to improve upon current prediction techniques with regard to the psychoacoustic descriptor of loudness and an improved binaural summation technique. The feasibility of this project was first investigated through a loudness matching experiment involving thirty-one subjects and pure tones of constant sound pressure level. A dependence of binaural summation on frequency was observed which had previously not been a subject of investigation in the reviewed literature. A follow-up investigation was carried out with forty-eight volunteers and pure tones of constant sensation level. Contrary to existing theories in literature the resulting loudness matches revealed an amplitude versus frequency relationship which confirmed the perceived increase in loudness when a signal was presented to both ears simultaneously as opposed to one ear alone. The resulting trend strongly indicated that the higher the frequency of the presented signal, the greater the increase in observed binaural summation. The results from each investigation were summarized into a single binaural summation algorithm and inserted into an improved time-varying loudness model. Using experimental techniques, it was demonstrated that the updated binaural summation algorithm was a considerable improvement over the state of the art approach for predicting the perceived binaural loudness. The improved function retained the ease of use from the original model while additionally providing accurate estimates of diotic listening conditions from monaural WAV files. It was clearly demonstrated using a validation jury test that the revised time-varying loudness model was a significant improvement over the previously standardized approach.

  3. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Philipp; Helic, Denis; Taraghi, Behnam; Strohmaier, Markus

    2014-01-01

    One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  4. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  5. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  6. A Probabilistic Genome-Wide Gene Reading Frame Sequence Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Mørk, Søren

    We introduce a new type of probabilistic sequence model, that model the sequential composition of reading frames of genes in a genome. Our approach extends gene finders with a model of the sequential composition of genes at the genome-level -- effectively producing a sequential genome annotation...... and are evaluated by the effect on prediction performance. Since bacterial gene finding to a large extent is a solved problem it forms an ideal proving ground for evaluating the explicit modeling of larger scale gene sequence composition of genomes. We conclude that the sequential composition of gene reading frames...... as output. The model can be used to obtain the most probable genome annotation based on a combination of i: a gene finder score of each gene candidate and ii: the sequence of the reading frames of gene candidates through a genome. The model --- as well as a higher order variant --- is developed and tested...

  7. Modelling of catchment nitrogen concentrations response to observed varying fertilizer application intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomaa, Seifeddine; Jiang, Sanyuan; Yang, Xiaoqiang; Rode, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Eutrophication is a serious environmental problem. Despite numerous experimental and modelling efforts, understanding of the effect of land use and agriculture practices on in-stream nitrogen fluxes is still not fully achieved. This study combined intensive field monitoring and numerical modelling using 30 years of surface water quality data of a drinking water reservoir catchment in central Germany. The Weida catchment (99.5 km2) is part of the Elbe river basin and has a share of 67% of agricultural land use with significant changes in agricultural practices within the investigation period. The geology of the Weida catchment is characterized by clay schists and eruptive rocks, where rocks have low permeability. The semi-distributed hydrological water quality HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) model was used to reproduce the measured data. First, the model was calibrated for discharge and nitrate-N concentrations (NO3-N) during the period 1997-2000. Then, the HYPE model was validated successfully for three different periods 1983-1987, 1989-1996 and 2000-2003, which are charaterized by different fertilizer application rates (with lowest discharge prediction performance of NSE = 0.78 and PBIAS = 3.74%, considering calibration and validation periods). Results showed that the measured as well as simulated in-stream nitrate-N concentration respond quickly to fertilizer application changes (increase/decrease). This rapid response can be explained with short residence times of interflow and baseflow runoff components due to the hardrock geological properties of the catchment. Results revealed that the surface runoff and interflow are the most dominant runoff components. HYPE model could reproduce reasonably well the NO3-N daily loads for varying fertilizer application, when detailed input data in terms of crop management (field-specific survey) are considered.

  8. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of PLGA nanoparticles with varied mPEG content

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avgoustakis K

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Mingguang Li1, Zoi Panagi2, Konstantinos Avgoustakis2, Joshua Reineke11Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Eugene Applebaum College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA; 2Pharmaceutical Technology Laboratory, Department of Pharmacy, University of Patras, Rion, Patras, GreeceAbstract: Biodistribution of nanoparticles is dependent on their physicochemical properties (such as size, surface charge, and surface hydrophilicity. Clear and systematic understanding of nanoparticle properties' effects on their in vivo performance is of fundamental significance in nanoparticle design, development and optimization for medical applications, and toxicity evaluation. In the present study, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was utilized to interpret the effects of nanoparticle properties on previously published biodistribution data. Biodistribution data for five poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA nanoparticle formulations prepared with varied content of monomethoxypoly (ethyleneglycol (mPEG (PLGA, PLGA-mPEG256, PLGA-mPEG153, PLGA-mPEG51, PLGA-mPEG34 were collected in mice after intravenous injection. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed and evaluated to simulate the mass-time profiles of nanoparticle distribution in tissues. In anticipation that the biodistribution of new nanoparticle formulations could be predicted from the physiologically based pharmacokinetic model, multivariate regression analysis was performed to build the relationship between nanoparticle properties (size, zeta potential, and number of PEG molecules per unit surface area and biodistribution parameters. Based on these relationships, characterized physicochemical properties of PLGA-mPEG495 nanoparticles (a sixth formulation were used to calculate (predict biodistribution profiles. For all five initial formulations, the developed model adequately simulates the experimental data indicating that the model is suitable for

  9. Linear Parameter Varying Model Identification for Control of Rotorcraft-based UAV

    CERN Document Server

    Budiyono, Agus

    2008-01-01

    A rotorcraft-based unmanned aerial vehicle exhibits more complex properties compared to its full-size counterparts due to its increased sensitivity to control inputs and disturbances and higher bandwidth of its dynamics. As an aerial vehicle with vertical take-off and landing capability, the helicopter specifically poses a difficult problem of transition between forward flight and unstable hover and vice versa. The LPV control technique explicitly takes into account the change in performance due to the real-time parameter variations. The technique therefore theoretically guarantees the performance and robustness over the entire operating envelope. In this study, we investigate a new approach implementing model identification for use in the LPV control framework. The identification scheme employs recursive least square technique implemented on the LPV system represented by dynamics of helicopter during a transition. The airspeed as the scheduling of parameter trajectory is not assumed to vary slowly. The exclu...

  10. Traveling waves of an elliptic-hyperbolic model of phase transitions via varying viscosity-capillarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanh, Mai Duc

    We consider an elliptic-hyperbolic model of phase transitions and we show that any Lax shock can be approximated by a traveling wave with a suitable choice of viscosity and capillarity. By varying viscosity and capillarity coefficients, we can cover any Lax shock which either remains in the same phase, or admits a phase transition. The argument used in this paper extends the one in our earlier works. The method relies on LaSalle's invariance principle and on estimating attraction region of the asymptotically stable of the associated autonomous system of differential equations. We will show that the saddle point of this system of differential equations lies on the boundary of the attraction region and that there is a trajectory leaving the saddle point and entering the attraction region. This gives us a traveling wave connecting the two states of the Lax shock. We also present numerical illustrations of traveling waves.

  11. Robust unknown input observer design for state estimation and fault detection using linear parameter varying model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shanzhi; Wang, Haoping; Aitouche, Abdel; Tian, Yang; Christov, Nicolai

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust unknown input observer for state estimation and fault detection using linear parameter varying model. Since the disturbance and actuator fault is mixed together in the physical system, it is difficult to isolate the fault from the disturbance. Using the state transforation, the estimation of the original state becomes to associate with the transform state. By solving the linear matrix inequalities (LMIs)and linear matrix equalities (LMEs), the parameters of the UIO can be obtained. The convergence of the UIO is also analysed by the Layapunov theory. Finally, a wind turbine system with disturbance and actuator fault is tested for the proposed method. From the simulations, it demonstrates the effectiveness and performances of the proposed method.

  12. A Probabilistic Genome-Wide Gene Reading Frame Sequence Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Mørk, Søren

    using the probabilistic logic programming language and machine learning system PRISM - a fast and efficient model prototyping environment, using bacterial gene finding performance as a benchmark of signal strength. The model is used to prune a set of gene predictions from an underlying gene finder...

  13. A probabilistic dynamic energy model for ad-hoc wireless sensors network with varying topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Husseini, Amal

    In this dissertation we investigate the behavior of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) from the degree distribution and evolution perspective. In specific, we focus on implementation of a scale-free degree distribution topology for energy efficient WSNs. WSNs is an emerging technology that finds its applications in different areas such as environment monitoring, agricultural crop monitoring, forest fire monitoring, and hazardous chemical monitoring in war zones. This technology allows us to collect data without human presence or intervention. Energy conservation/efficiency is one of the major issues in prolonging the active life WSNs. Recently, many energy aware and fault tolerant topology control algorithms have been presented, but there is dearth of research focused on energy conservation/efficiency of WSNs. Therefore, we study energy efficiency and fault-tolerance in WSNs from the degree distribution and evolution perspective. Self-organization observed in natural and biological systems has been directly linked to their degree distribution. It is widely known that scale-free distribution bestows robustness, fault-tolerance, and access efficiency to system. Fascinated by these properties, we propose two complex network theoretic self-organizing models for adaptive WSNs. In particular, we focus on adopting the Barabasi and Albert scale-free model to fit into the constraints and limitations of WSNs. We developed simulation models to conduct numerical experiments and network analysis. The main objective of studying these models is to find ways to reducing energy usage of each node and balancing the overall network energy disrupted by faulty communication among nodes. The first model constructs the wireless sensor network relative to the degree (connectivity) and remaining energy of every individual node. We observed that it results in a scale-free network structure which has good fault tolerance properties in face of random node failures. The second model considers

  14. Resampling: An improvement of importance sampling in varying population size models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merle, C; Leblois, R; Rousset, F; Pudlo, P

    2017-04-01

    Sequential importance sampling algorithms have been defined to estimate likelihoods in models of ancestral population processes. However, these algorithms are based on features of the models with constant population size, and become inefficient when the population size varies in time, making likelihood-based inferences difficult in many demographic situations. In this work, we modify a previous sequential importance sampling algorithm to improve the efficiency of the likelihood estimation. Our procedure is still based on features of the model with constant size, but uses a resampling technique with a new resampling probability distribution depending on the pairwise composite likelihood. We tested our algorithm, called sequential importance sampling with resampling (SISR) on simulated data sets under different demographic cases. In most cases, we divided the computational cost by two for the same accuracy of inference, in some cases even by one hundred. This study provides the first assessment of the impact of such resampling techniques on parameter inference using sequential importance sampling, and extends the range of situations where likelihood inferences can be easily performed.

  15. Turbulent flow structure response to a varying wall-roughness arrangement: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakirlic, Suad; Krumbein, Benjamin; Fooroghi, Pourya; Magagnato, Franco; Frohnapfel, Bettina; Darmstadt Collaboration; Karlsruhe Collaboration

    2016-11-01

    Presently adopted approach to the modelling of rough surfaces relies on introducing an additional drag term in the appropriately 'filtered' Navier-Stokes equations, accounting for the form drag and blockage effects, the roughness elements exert on the flow. A non-dimensional drag function D(y) accounting for the shape of roughness elements is introduced. It is evaluated by applying a reference DNS of an open channel flow over a wall characterized by varying arrangement (aligned/staggered) of differently-shaped/sized roughness elements at a bulk Reynolds number Re =6500 by Fooroghi et al.. The prime objective of the present work is to assess the roughness model capability to predict mean velocities and turbulent intensities in conjunction with a recently formulated hybrid LES/RANS (Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes) model, based on the Very Large Eddy Simulation (VLES) concept of Speziale. A seamless transition from RANS to LES is enabled depending on the ratio of the turbulent viscosities associated with the unresolved scales corresponding to the LES cut-off and those related to the turbulent properties of the VLES residual motion.

  16. Testing Serial Correlation in Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear EV Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue-mei Hu; Zhi-zhong Wang; Feng Liu

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies estimation and serial correlation test of a semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear EV model of the form Y = Xτβ + Zτα(T) + ε,ξ = X + η with the identifying condition E[(ε,ητ)τ] = 0, Cov[(ε,ητ)τ] = σ2Iρ+1. The estimators of interested regression parameters β, and the model error variance σ2, as well as the nonparametric components α(T), are constructed. Under some regular conditions, we show that the estimators of the unknown vector β and the unknown parameter σ2 are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal and that the estimator of α(T) achieves the optimal strong convergence rate of the usual nonparametric regression. Based on these estimators and asymptotic properties, we propose the VN,p test statistic and empirical log-likelihood ratio statistic for testing serial correlation in the model. The proposed statistics are shown to have asymptotic normal or chi-square distributions under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed tests.

  17. A First-Order Electroweak Phase Transition in the Standard Model from Varying Yukawas

    CERN Document Server

    Baldes, Iason; Servant, Geraldine

    2016-01-01

    We show that the dynamics responsible for the variation of the Yukawa couplings of the Standard Model fermions generically leads to a very strong first-order electroweak phase transition, assuming that the Yukawa couplings are large and of order 1 before the electroweak phase transition and reach their present value afterwards. There are good motivations to consider that the flavour structure could emerge during electroweak symmetry breaking, for example if the Froggatt-Nielsen field dynamics were linked to the Higgs field. In this paper, we do not need to assume any particular theory of flavour and show in a model-independent way how the nature of the electroweak phase transition is completely changed when the Standard Model Yukawas vary at the same time as the Higgs is acquiring its vacuum expectation value. The thermal contribution of the fermions creates a barrier between the symmetric and broken phase minima of the effective potential, leading to a first-order phase transition. This offers new routes for...

  18. A Fragment-Cloud Approach for Modeling Atmospheric Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; NASA Engineering Risk Assessment Team, NASA Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

    2016-10-01

    As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, an analytic asteroid fragmentation model has been developed to model the atmospheric breakup and resulting energy deposition of asteroids with a range of internal structures. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, and the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, or can be defined as a monolith with an outer regolith layer. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

  19. Moving Kriging shape function modeling of vector TARMA models for modal identification of linear time-varying structural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Liu, Li; Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Zhi-Sai

    2015-10-01

    This work proposes a Moving Kriging (MK) shape function modeling method for modal identification of linear time-varying (LTV) structural systems based on vector time-dependent autoregressive moving average (VTARMA) models. It aims to avoid the functional subspaces selection of the conventional functional series VTARMA (FS-VTARMA) models. Instead of the common basis functions, it constructs the time-varying coefficients on the time nodes with the MK shape functions in a compact support domain. The merit of the MK shape function is to determine its shape parameters upon vector random vibration signals adaptively. Model identification is effectively dealt with through an optimization scheme that decomposes the identification problem into two subproblems: estimating model parameters via two-stage least squares (2SLS) method and estimating shape function parameters via a discrete-continuous-variable hybrid optimization. In addition, the model order selection is achieved by the optimization scheme. This method has been validated by a Monte Carlo study of simulation case and further by an experimental test case, and the performance and potential advantages are illustrated.

  20. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  1. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  2. Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sedigh Marvasti

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1° models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6 with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature. We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

  3. A Loudness Model for Time-Varying Sounds Incorporating Binaural Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C. J. Moore

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a model of loudness for time-varying sounds that incorporates the concept of binaural inhibition, namely, that the signal applied to one ear can reduce the internal response to a signal at the other ear. For each ear, the model includes the following: a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear; a short-term spectral analysis with greater frequency resolution at low than at high frequencies; calculation of an excitation pattern, representing the magnitudes of the outputs of the auditory filters as a function of center frequency; application of a compressive nonlinearity to the output of each auditory filter; and smoothing over time of the resulting instantaneous specific loudness pattern using an averaging process resembling an automatic gain control. The resulting short-term specific loudness patterns are used to calculate broadly tuned binaural inhibition functions, the amount of inhibition depending on the relative short-term specific loudness at the two ears. The inhibited specific loudness patterns are summed across frequency to give an estimate of the short-term loudness for each ear. The overall short-term loudness is calculated as the sum of the short-term loudness values for the two ears. The long-term loudness for each ear is calculated by smoothing the short-term loudness for that ear, again by a process resembling automatic gain control, and the overall loudness impression is obtained by summing the long-term loudness across ears. The predictions of the model are more accurate than those of an earlier model that did not incorporate binaural inhibition.

  4. A Loudness Model for Time-Varying Sounds Incorporating Binaural Inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Brian C J; Glasberg, Brian R; Varathanathan, Ajanth; Schlittenlacher, Josef

    2016-01-01

    This article describes a model of loudness for time-varying sounds that incorporates the concept of binaural inhibition, namely, that the signal applied to one ear can reduce the internal response to a signal at the other ear. For each ear, the model includes the following: a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear; a short-term spectral analysis with greater frequency resolution at low than at high frequencies; calculation of an excitation pattern, representing the magnitudes of the outputs of the auditory filters as a function of center frequency; application of a compressive nonlinearity to the output of each auditory filter; and smoothing over time of the resulting instantaneous specific loudness pattern using an averaging process resembling an automatic gain control. The resulting short-term specific loudness patterns are used to calculate broadly tuned binaural inhibition functions, the amount of inhibition depending on the relative short-term specific loudness at the two ears. The inhibited specific loudness patterns are summed across frequency to give an estimate of the short-term loudness for each ear. The overall short-term loudness is calculated as the sum of the short-term loudness values for the two ears. The long-term loudness for each ear is calculated by smoothing the short-term loudness for that ear, again by a process resembling automatic gain control, and the overall loudness impression is obtained by summing the long-term loudness across ears. The predictions of the model are more accurate than those of an earlier model that did not incorporate binaural inhibition.

  5. Modeling of the Feed-Motor Transient Current in End Milling by Using Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Xiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to ensure the stability of the machining process, it is vital to control the machining condition during the milling process. While the feed-motor current is related to many physical variables, such as the cutting force and tool wear, we can indicate it as the key variables to monitoring the conditions of the milling process. A predictive model of the feed-motor current amplitude is established in this paper. The change regulation of the transient current amplitude during the milling process is investigated, and the effect of the spindle speed on the transient current amplitude is studied as well. Since the transient current amplitude is time-varying, the predictive model is a typical panel data type. In this case, the varying-coefficient model (VCM, a potential soft computing method, is applied to solve this predictive model. Then several experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of VCM method. Results show that the predicted values match the experimental value well, and the correctness of the predictive model for transient current amplitude is also validated.

  6. MGP : a tool for wide range temperature modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales, A.F. [Inst. Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico); Seisdedos, L.V. [Univ. de Oriente, Santiago de Cuba (Cuba). Dept. de Control Automatico

    2006-07-01

    This paper proposed a practical temperature modelling tool that used genetic multivariate polynomials to determine polynomial expressions of enthalpy and empirical heat transfer equations in superheaters. The model was designed to transform static parameter estimations from distributed into lumped parameter systems. Two dynamic regimes were explored: (1) a power dynamics regime containing major inputs and outputs needed for overall plant control; and (2) a steam temperature dynamics scheme that considered consecutive superheater sections considered in terms of cooling water mass flow and steam mass flow. The single lumped parameters model was developed to provide temperature control for a fossil fuel-fired power plant. The design procedure used enthalpy to determine the plant's energy balance. The enthalpy curve was seen as a function of either temperature and steam pressure. A graphic simulation tool was used to optimize the model by comparing real and simulated plant data. The study showed that the amount of energy taken by the steam mass flow per time unit can be calculated by measuring temperatures and pressures at both ends of the superheater. An algorithm was then developed to determine the polynomial's coefficients according to best curve fitting over the training set and best maximum errors. It was concluded that a unified approach is now being developed to simulate and emulate the dynamics of steam temperature for each section's attemporator-superheater. 14 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  7. Cosmological effects of scalar-photon couplings: dark energy and varyingModels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avgoustidis, A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Martins, C.J.A.P.; Monteiro, A.M.R.V.L.; Vielzeuf, P.E. [Centro de Astrofísica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Luzzi, G., E-mail: tavgoust@gmail.com, E-mail: Carlos.Martins@astro.up.pt, E-mail: mmonteiro@fc.up.pt, E-mail: up110370652@alunos.fc.up.pt, E-mail: gluzzi@lal.in2p3.fr [Laboratoire de l' Accélérateur Linéaire, Université de Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Bâtiment 200, BP 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2014-06-01

    We study cosmological models involving scalar fields coupled to radiation and discuss their effect on the redshift evolution of the cosmic microwave background temperature, focusing on links with varying fundamental constants and dynamical dark energy. We quantify how allowing for the coupling of scalar fields to photons, and its important effect on luminosity distances, weakens current and future constraints on cosmological parameters. In particular, for evolving dark energy models, joint constraints on the dark energy equation of state combining BAO radial distance and SN luminosity distance determinations, will be strongly dominated by BAO. Thus, to fully exploit future SN data one must also independently constrain photon number non-conservation arising from the possible coupling of SN photons to the dark energy scalar field. We discuss how observational determinations of the background temperature at different redshifts can, in combination with distance measures data, set tight constraints on interactions between scalar fields and photons, thus breaking this degeneracy. We also discuss prospects for future improvements, particularly in the context of Euclid and the E-ELT and show that Euclid can, even on its own, provide useful dark energy constraints while allowing for photon number non-conservation.

  8. Characterizing urban vulnerability to heat stress using a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, Matthew J; Sain, Stephan R; Greasby, Tamara A; Uejio, Christopher K; Hayden, Mary H; Monaghan, Andrew J; Boehnert, Jennifer; Sampson, Kevin; Banerjee, Deborah; Nepal, Vishnu; Wilhelmi, Olga V

    2014-04-01

    Identifying and characterizing urban vulnerability to heat is a key step in designing intervention strategies to combat negative consequences of extreme heat on human health. This study combines excess non-accidental mortality counts, numerical weather simulations, US Census and parcel data into an assessment of vulnerability to heat in Houston, Texas. Specifically, a hierarchical model with spatially varying coefficients is used to account for differences in vulnerability among census block groups. Socio-economic and demographic variables from census and parcel data are selected via a forward selection algorithm where at each step the remaining variables are orthogonalized with respect to the chosen variables to account for collinearity. Daily minimum temperatures and composite heat indices (e.g. discomfort index) provide a better model fit than other ambient temperature measurements (e.g. maximum temperature, relative humidity). Positive interactions between elderly populations and heat exposure were found suggesting these populations are more responsive to increases in heat. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. DETERMINATION OF ELECTRODEPOSITION HARDNESS BY ANALYTICAL MODELING PART I - Ni-P COATINGS OBTAINED BY VARYING THE ELABORATION TIME -

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PASĂRE Minodora Maria

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Results obtained from Vickers hardness tests were used for analytical modeling models Buckle, Jönsson, Hogmark. Ni-P electrodeposition were obtained by varying the elaboration time. The analytic models obtained by theoretical means, by applying the corresponding formulas to each model have been compared to the experimental results obtained at hardness tests.

  10. Varying Constants

    CERN Document Server

    Damour, Thibault Marie Alban Guillaume

    2003-01-01

    We review some string-inspired theoretical models which incorporate a correlated spacetime variation of coupling constants while remaining naturally compatible both with phenomenological constraints coming from geochemical data (Oklo; Rhenium decay) and with present equivalence principle tests. Barring unnatural fine-tunings of parameters, a variation of the fine-structure constant as large as that recently ``observed'' by Webb et al. in quasar absorption spectra appears to be incompatible with these phenomenological constraints. Independently of any model, it is emphasized that the best experimental probe of varying constants are high-precision tests of the universality of free fall, such as MICROSCOPE and STEP. Recent claims by Bekenstein that fine-structure-constant variability does not imply detectable violations of the equivalence principle are shown to be untenable.

  11. Capacitive MEMS accelerometer wide range modeling using artificial neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baharodimehr

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a nonlinear model for a capacitive microelectromechanical accelerometer (MEMA. System parameters ofthe accelerometer are developed using the effect of cubic term of the folded‐flexure spring. To solve this equation, we use theFEA method. The neural network (NN uses the Levenberg‐Marquardt (LM method for training the system to have a moreaccurate response. The designed NN can identify and predict the displacement of the movable mass of accelerometer. Thesimulation results are very promising.

  12. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  13. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  14. Community-wide model validation studies for systematic assessment of ionosphere-thermosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Ja Soon; Kuznetsova, Maria; Rastätter, Lutz

    2016-07-01

    As an unbiased agent, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has been leading community-wide model validation efforts; GEM, CEDAR and GEM-CEDAR Modeling Challenges since 2009. The CEDAR ETI (Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere) Challenge focused on the ability of ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) models to reproduce basic IT system parameters, such as electron and neutral densities, NmF2, hmF2, and Total Electron Content (TEC). Model-data time series comparisons were performed for a set of selected events with different levels of geomagnetic activity (quiet, moderate, storms). The follow-on CEDAR-GEM Challenge aims to quantify geomagnetic storm impacts on the IT system. On-going studies include quantifying the storm energy input, such as increase in auroral precipitation and Joule heating, and quantifying the storm-time variations of neutral density and TEC. In this paper, we will present lessons learned from the Modeling Challenges led by the CCMC.

  15. Improvement of and Parameter Identification for the Bimodal Time-Varying Modified Kanai-Tajimi Power Spectral Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiguo Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Kanai-Tajimi power spectrum filtering method proposed by Du Xiuli et al., a genetic algorithm and a quadratic optimization identification technique are employed to improve the bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model and the parameter identification method proposed by Vlachos et al. Additionally, a method for modeling time-varying power spectrum parameters for ground motion is proposed. The 8244 Orion and Chi-Chi earthquake accelerograms are selected as examples for time-varying power spectral model parameter identification and ground motion simulations to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model. The results of this study provide important references for designing ground motion inputs for seismic analyses of major engineering structures.

  16. Wide frequency rheological modeling of crosslinked polyacrylamide gels

    CERN Document Server

    Abidine, Yara; Michel, Richard; Duperray, Alain; Palade, Liviu Iulian; Verdier, Claude

    2013-01-01

    Gels are known to behave as viscoelastic materials but only a small amount of data is usually provided in the glassy transition. Results concerning the dynamic moduli G′ and G′′ are presented here using AFM in contact oscillatory mode and show good agreement with classical rheological data. Different gels are studied with increasing polymer concentration. G0N, the plateau modulus, is measured at low frequencies, but interestingly another one, G1, is found at high frequencies. A model based on fractional derivatives is proposed, covering the whole frequency range. The relaxation spectrum is recovered, and the physical parameters contain interesting information about the local dynamics of crosslinks.

  17. Bursting-like motion induced by time-varying delay in an internet congestion control model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shu Zhang; Jian Xu

    2012-01-01

    Time delay is an important parameter in the problem of internet congestion control.According to some researches,time delay is not always constant and can be viewed as a periodic function of time for some cases.In this work,an internet congestion control model is considered to study the time-varying delay induced bursting-like motion,which consists of a rapid oscillation burst and quiescent steady state.Then,for the system with periodic delay of small amplitude and low frequency,the method of multiple scales is employed to obtain the amplitude of the oscillation.Based on the expression of the asymptotic solution,it can be found that the relative length of the steady state increases with amplitude of the variation of time delay and decreases with frequency of the variation of time delay.Finally,an effective method to control the bursting-like motion is proposed by introducing a periodic gain parameter with appropriate amplitude.Theoretical results are in agreement with that from numerical method.

  18. Modelling shallow debris flows of the Coulomb-mixture type over temporally varying topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Tai

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We propose a saturated binary mixture model for debris flows of the Coulomb-mixture type over temporally varying topography, where the effects of erosion and deposition are considered. Due to the deposition or erosion processes, the interface between the moving material and the stagnant base is a non-material singular surface. The motion of this singular surface is determined by the mass exchange between the flowing layer and the ground. The ratio of the relative velocity between the two constituents to the velocity of the solid phase is assumed to be small, so that the governing equations can be reduced to a system of the quasi-single-phase type. A shock-capturing numerical scheme is implemented to solve the derived equation system. The deposition shapes of a finite mass sliding down an inclined planary chute are investigated for a range of mixture ratios. The geometric evolution of the deposition is presented, which allows the possibility of mimicking the development of levee deposition.

  19. Optimization of a simplified automobile finite element model using time varying injury metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaewsky, James P; Danelson, Kerry A; Weaver, Caitlin M; Stitzel, Joel D

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, frontal crashes resulted in 55% of passenger car injuries with 10,277 fatalities and 866,000 injuries in the United States. To better understand frontal crash injury mechanisms, human body finite element models (FEMs) can be used to reconstruct Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases. A limitation of this method is the paucity of vehicle FEMs; therefore, we developed a functionally equivalent simplified vehicle model. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) data for our selected vehicle was from a frontal collision with Hybrid III (H3) Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) occupant. From NCAP test reports, the vehicle geometry was created and the H3 ATD was positioned. The material and component properties optimized using a variation study process were: steering column shear bolt fracture force and stroke resistance, seatbelt pretensioner force, frontal and knee bolster airbag stiffness, and belt friction through the D-ring. These parameters were varied using three successive Latin Hypercube Designs of Experiments with 130-200 simulations each. The H3 injury response was compared to the reported NCAP frontal test results for the head, chest and pelvis accelerations, and seat belt and femur forces. The phase, magnitude, and comprehensive error factors, from a Sprague and Geers analysis were calculated for each injury metric and then combined to determine the simulations with the best match to the crash test. The Sprague and Geers analyses typically yield error factors ranging from 0 to 1 with lower scores being more optimized. The total body injury response error factor for the most optimized simulation from each round of the variation study decreased from 0.466 to 0.395 to 0.360. This procedure to optimize vehicle FEMs is a valuable tool to conduct future CIREN case reconstructions in a variety of vehicles.

  20. Ripples and Dunes in Directionally Varying Flows--Three Decades of Experiments, Theory, and Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The morphology and dynamics of ripples and dunes have received considerable study for the past half-century, but most studies have focused on only the small subset of flows that are convenient to study in a lab: using flumes with flows that are constant in direction or wave tanks with flows that reverse by 180°. Many natural flows are free to change in direction by other angles (seasonal or daily cycles in wind direction; reversing wave-generated flows combined with alongshore currents; reversing tidal currents in curved channels; unsteady separated flows). A handful of studies have addressed a broader set of such flows using specialized lab setups (rotating beds in unidirectional flows; oscillating or pulsed beds in static or flowing water; unsteady flows that arise in channel expansions or topographic depressions). Other studies have applied theory or modeling (usually incorporating simplified relations between topography, flow, and sediment transport) to bedform morphology and orientation. The studies that have addressed this broader variety of natural flows have found that compared to the relatively sinuous barchanoid morphology of ripples and dunes in unidirectional flows, bedforms in bi-directional flows can have relatively long straight crests (wave ripples or linear dunes); and multi-directional flows have been shown to produce brick- or tile-pattern ripples under interfering waves, star dunes in deserts, and polygonal dunes within craters on Mars. The topic receiving most study in directionally varying flows is bedform orientation in bi-directional flows. A number of lab, field, theoretical, and modeling studies have found that bedforms arise with the orientation subject to maximum gross-normal transport, but some recent results suggest other orientations are possible where a bed is only partially covered in sand.

  1. miRNA gene counts in chromosomes vary widely in a species and biogenesis of miRNA largely depends on transcription or posttranscriptional processing of coding genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atanu eGhorai

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs target specific mRNA(s to silence its expression and thereby regulate various cellular processes. We have investigated miRNA gene counts in chromosomes for 20 different species and observed wide variation. Certain chromosomes have extremely high number of miRNA gene compared with others in all the species. For example, high number of miRNA gene in X chromosome and the least or absence of miRNA gene in Y chromosome was observed in all species. To search the criteria governing such variation of miRNA gene counts in chromosomes, we have selected three parameters- length, number of non-coding and coding genes in a chromosome. We have calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficient of miRNA gene counts with length, number of non-coding and coding genes in a chromosome for all 20 species. Major number of species showed that number of miRNA gene was not correlated with chromosome length. 85% of species under study showed strong positive correlation coefficient (r≥0.5 between the numbers of miRNA gene vs non-coding gene in chromosomes as expected because miRNA is a sub-set of non-coding genes. 55% species under study showed strong positive correlation coefficient (r≥0.5 between numbers of miRNA gene vs coding gene. We hypothesize biogenesis of miRNA largely depends on coding genes, an evolutionary conserved process. Chromosomes having higher number of miRNA genes will be most likely playing regulatory roles in several cellular processes including different disorders. In humans, cancer and cardiovascular disease associated miRNAs are mostly intergenic and located in Chromosome 19, X, 14 and 1.

  2. The utility of protein structure as a predictor of site-wise dN/dS varies widely among HIV-1 proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Austin G; Wilke, Claus O

    2015-10-06

    Protein structure acts as a general constraint on the evolution of viral proteins. One widely recognized structural constraint explaining evolutionary variation among sites is the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of residues in the folded protein. In influenza virus, the distance from functional sites has been found to explain an additional portion of the evolutionary variation in the external antigenic proteins. However, to what extent RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein can be used more generally to explain protein adaptation in other viruses and in the different proteins of any given virus remains an open question. To address this question, we have carried out an analysis of the distribution and structural predictors of site-wise dN/dS in HIV-1. Our results indicate that the distribution of dN/dS in HIV follows a smooth gamma distribution, with no special enrichment or depletion of sites with dN/dS at or above one. The variation in dN/dS can be partially explained by RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein, but these structural constraints do not act uniformly among the different HIV-1 proteins. Structural constraints are highly predictive in just one of the three enzymes and one of three structural proteins in HIV-1. For these two proteins, the protease enzyme and the gp120 structural protein, structure explains between 30 and 40% of the variation in dN/dS. Finally, for the gp120 protein of the receptor-binding complex, we also find that glycosylation sites explain just 2% of the variation in dN/dS and do not explain gp120 evolution independently of either RSA or distance from the apical surface. © 2015 The Author(s).

  3. Modeling Brain Circuitry over a Wide Range of Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal eFua

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available If we are ever to unravel the mysteries of brain function at its most fundamental level, we will need a precise understanding of how its component neurons connect to each other. Electron Microscopes (EM can now provide the nanometer resolution that is needed to image synapses, and therefore connections, while Light Microscopes (LM see at the micrometer resolution required to model the 3D structure of the dendritic network. Since both the topology and the connection strength are integral parts of the brain's wiring diagram, being able to combine these two modalities is critically important.In fact, these microscopes now routinely produce high-resolution imagery in such large quantities that the bottleneck becomes automated processing and interpretation, which is needed for such data to be exploited to its full potential. In this paper, we briefly review the Computer Vision techniques we have developed at EPFL to address this need. They include delineating dendritic arbors from LM imagery, segmenting organelles from EM, and combining the two into a consistent representation.

  4. In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modelling via optimal time-varying allocations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Shattock

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: International investment in the response to HIV and AIDS has plateaued and its future level is uncertain. With many countries committed to ending the epidemic, it is essential to allocate available resources efficiently over different response periods to maximize impact. The objective of this study is to propose a technique to determine the optimal allocation of funds over time across a set of HIV programmes to achieve desirable health outcomes. Methods: We developed a technique to determine the optimal time-varying allocation of funds (1 when the future annual HIV budget is pre-defined and (2 when the total budget over a period is pre-defined, but the year-on-year budget is to be optimally determined. We use this methodology with Optima, an HIV transmission model that uses non-linear relationships between programme spending and associated programmatic outcomes to quantify the expected epidemiological impact of spending. We apply these methods to data collected from Zambia to determine the optimal distribution of resources to fund the right programmes, for the right people, at the right time. Results and discussion: Considering realistic implementation and ethical constraints, we estimate that the optimal time-varying redistribution of the 2014 Zambian HIV budget between 2015 and 2025 will lead to a 7.6% (7.3% to 7.8% decrease in cumulative new HIV infections compared with a baseline scenario where programme allocations remain at 2014 levels. This compares to a 5.1% (4.6% to 5.6% reduction in new infections using an optimal allocation with constant programme spending that recommends unrealistic programmatic changes. Contrasting priorities for programme funding arise when assessing outcomes for a five-year funding period over 5-, 10- and 20-year time horizons. Conclusions: Countries increasingly face the need to do more with the resources available. The methodology presented here can aid decision-makers in planning as to when to

  5. Nonlinear Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Torsional Spring-Loaded Antibacklash Gear with Time-Varying Meshing Stiffness and Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Torsional spring-loaded antibacklash gear which can improve the transmission precision is widely used in many precision transmission fields. It is very important to investigate the dynamic characteristics of antibacklash gear. In the paper, applied force analysis is completed in detail. Then, defining the starting point of double-gear meshing as initial position, according to the meshing characteristic of antibacklash gear, single- or double-tooth meshing states of two gear pairs and the transformation relationship at any moment are determined. Based on this, a nonlinear model of antibacklash gear with time-varying friction and meshing stiffness is proposed. The influences of friction and variations of torsional spring stiffness, damping ratio and preload on dynamic transmission error (DTE are analyzed by numerical calculation and simulation, and the results show that antibacklash gear can increase the composite meshing stiffness; when the torsional spring stiffness is large enough, the oscillating components of the DTE (ODTE and the RMS of the DTE (RDTE trend to be a constant value; the variations of ODTE and RDTE are not significant, unless preload exceeds a certain value.

  6. System-wide Benchmark Simulation Model for integrated analysis of urban wastewater systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saagi, R.; Flores-Alsina, X.; Gernaey, K. V.

    (Gernaey et al., 2014). Given the success of BSMs in evaluation of control strategies for WWTPs, it is envisioned to spatially expand the plant-wide BSM to a system-wide tool. A system-wide BSM can then play an important role, not only in the evaluation of integrated control strategies, but also...... in developing a better understanding of the interactions between different components of an UWS. This paper aims at presenting a system-wide benchmark simulation model that includes catchment, sewer network, WWTP and receiving water subsystems. A hypothetical UWS layout is defined and an integrated model......Interactions between different components (sewer, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and river) of an urban wastewater system (UWS) are widely recognized (Benedetti et al., 2013). This has resulted in an increasing interest in the modelling of the UWS. System-wide models take into account...

  7. Exploratory time varying lagged regression: modeling association of cognitive and functional trajectories with expected clinic visits in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentürk, Damla; Ghosh, Samiran; Nguyen, Danh V

    2014-05-01

    Motivated by a longitudinal study on factors affecting the frequency of clinic visits of older adults, an exploratory time varying lagged regression analysis is proposed to relate a longitudinal response to multiple cross-sectional and longitudinal predictors from time varying lags. Regression relations are allowed to vary with time through smooth varying coefficient functions. The main goal of the proposal is to detect deviations from a concurrent varying coefficient model potentially in a subset of the longitudinal predictors with nonzero estimated lags. The proposed methodology is geared towards irregular and infrequent data where different longitudinal variables may be observed at different frequencies, possibly at unsynchronized time points and contaminated with additive measurement error. Furthermore, to cope with the curse of dimensionality which limits related current modeling approaches, a sequential model building procedure is proposed to explore and select the time varying lags of the longitudinal predictors. The estimation procedure is based on estimation of the moments of the predictor and response trajectories by pooling information from all subjects. The finite sample properties of the proposed estimation algorithm are studied under various lag structures and correlation levels among the predictor processes in simulation studies. Application to the clinic visits data show the effect of cognitive and functional impairment scores from varying lags on the frequency of the clinic visits throughout the study.

  8. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  9. Models of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leblond, H., E-mail: herve.leblond@univ-angers.fr [LUNAM University, Université d’Angers, Laboratoire de Photonique d’Angers, EA 4464, 2 Bd. Lavoisier, 49045 Angers Cedex 01 (France); Mihalache, D. [LUNAM University, Université d’Angers, Laboratoire de Photonique d’Angers, EA 4464, 2 Bd. Lavoisier, 49045 Angers Cedex 01 (France); Horia Hulubei National Institute for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, P.O.B. MG-6, 077125 Magurele (Romania); Academy of Romanian Scientists, 54 Splaiul Independentei, 050094 Bucharest (Romania)

    2013-02-15

    In the past years there was a huge interest in experimental and theoretical studies in the area of few-optical-cycle pulses and in the broader fast growing field of the so-called extreme nonlinear optics. This review concentrates on theoretical studies performed in the past decade concerning the description of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation (SVEA). Here we systematically use the powerful reductive expansion method (alias multiscale analysis) in order to derive simple integrable and nonintegrable evolution models describing both nonlinear wave propagation and interaction of ultrashort (femtosecond) pulses. To this aim we perform the multiple scale analysis on the Maxwell–Bloch equations and the corresponding Schrödinger–von Neumann equation for the density matrix of two-level atoms. We analyze in detail both long-wave and short-wave propagation models. The propagation of ultrashort few-optical-cycle solitons in quadratic and cubic nonlinear media are adequately described by generic integrable and nonintegrable nonlinear evolution equations such as the Korteweg–de Vries equation, the modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the sine–Gordon equation, the cubic generalized Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation, and the two-dimensional sine–Gordon equation. Moreover, we consider the propagation of few-cycle optical solitons in both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional physical settings. A generalized modified Korteweg–de Vries equation is introduced in order to describe robust few-optical-cycle dissipative solitons. We investigate in detail the existence and robustness of both linearly polarized and circularly polarized few-cycle solitons, that is, we also take into account the effect of the vectorial nature of the electric field. Some of these results concerning the systematic use of the reductive expansion method beyond the SVEA can be relatively easily extended to few

  10. Genome-wide analysis of chitinase genes and their varied functions in larval moult, pupation and eclosion in the rice striped stem borer, Chilo suppressalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, C; Tu, G; Huang, S; Yang, Q; Shahzad, M F; Li, F

    2016-08-01

    Some insect chitinases are required to degrade chitin and ensure successful metamorphosis. Although chitinase genes have been well characterized in several model insects, no reports exist for the rice striped stem borer, Chilo suppressalis, a highly destructive pest that causes huge yield losses in rice production. Here, we conducted a genome-level analysis of chitinase genes in C. suppressalis. After amplification of full-length transcripts with rapid amplification of cDNA ends, we identified 12 chitinase genes in C. suppressalis. All these genes had the conserved domains and motifs of glycoside hydrolase family 18 and grouped phylogenetically into five subgroups. C. suppressalis chitinase 1 (CsCht1) was highly expressed in late pupae, whereas CsCht3 was abundant in early pupae. Both CsCht2 and CsCht4 were highly expressed in larvae. CsCht2 was abundant specifically in the third-instar larvae and CsCht4 showed periodic high expression in 2- to 5-day-old larvae in each instar. Tissue specific expression analysis indicated that CsCht1 and CsCht3 were highly expressed in epidermis whereas CsCht2 and CsCht4 were specifically abundant in the midgut. Knockdown of CsCht1 resulted in adults with curled wings, indicating that CsCht1 might have an important role in wing expansion. Silencing of CsCht2 or CsCht4 arrested moulting, suggesting essential roles in larval development. When the expression of CsCht3 was interfered, defects in pupation occurred. Overall, we provide here the first catalogue of chitinase genes in the rice striped stem borer and have elucidated the functions of four chitinases in metamorphosis.

  11. Function of SSA subfamily of Hsp70 within and across species varies widely in complementing Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell growth and prion propagation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Sharma

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The cytosol of most eukaryotic cells contains multiple highly conserved Hsp70 orthologs that differ mainly by their spatio-temporal expression patterns. Hsp70s play essential roles in protein folding, transport or degradation, and are major players of cellular quality control processes. However, while several reports suggest that specialized functions of Hsp70 orthologs were selected through evolution, few studies addressed systematically this issue. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared the ability of Ssa1p-Ssa4p from Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Ssa5p-Ssa8p from the evolutionary distant yeast Yarrowia lipolytica to perform Hsp70-dependent tasks when expressed as the sole Hsp70 for S. cerevisiae in vivo. We show that Hsp70 isoforms (i supported yeast viability yet with markedly different growth rates, (ii influenced the propagation and stability of the [PSI(+] and [URE3] prions, but iii did not significantly affect the proteasomal degradation rate of CFTR. Additionally, we show that individual Hsp70 orthologs did not induce the formation of different prion strains, but rather influenced the aggregation properties of Sup35 in vivo. Finally, we show that [URE3] curing by the overexpression of Ydj1p is Hsp70-isoform dependent. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite very high homology and overlapping functions, the different Hsp70 orthologs have evolved to possess distinct activities that are required to cope with different types of substrates or stress situations. Yeast prions provide a very sensitive model to uncover this functional specialization and to explore the intricate network of chaperone/co-chaperone/substrates interactions.

  12. Identification and frequency domain analysis of non-stationary and nonlinear systems using time-varying NARMAX models

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Fei; Wei, Hua-Liang; Billings, Stephen A.

    2015-08-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for nonlinear and non-stationary (time-varying) system identification based on time-varying nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable (TV-NARMAX) models. The challenging model structure selection and parameter tracking problems are solved by combining a multiwavelet basis function expansion of the time-varying parameters with an orthogonal least squares algorithm. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed approach can track rapid time-varying effects in nonlinear systems more accurately than the standard recursive algorithms. Based on the identified time domain model, a new frequency domain analysis approach is introduced based on a time-varying generalised frequency response function (TV-GFRF) concept, which enables the analysis of nonlinear, non-stationary systems in the frequency domain. Features in the TV-GFRFs which depend on the TV-NARMAX model structure and time-varying parameters are investigated. It is shown that the high-dimensional frequency features can be visualised in a low-dimensional time-frequency space.

  13. Genome-wide SNPs and re-sequencing of growth habit and inflorescence genes in barley: implications for association mapping in germplasm arrays varying in size and structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muehlbauer Gary J

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Considerations in applying association mapping (AM to plant breeding are population structure and size: not accounting for structure and/or using small populations can lead to elevated false-positive rates. The principal determinants of population structure in cultivated barley are growth habit and inflorescence type. Both are under complex genetic control: growth habit is controlled by the epistatic interactions of several genes. For inflorescence type, multiple loss-of-function alleles in one gene lead to the same phenotype. We used these two traits as models for assessing the effectiveness of AM. This research was initiated using the CAP Core germplasm array (n = 102 assembled at the start of the Barley Coordinated Agricultural Project (CAP. This array was genotyped with 4,608 SNPs and we re-sequenced genes involved in morphology, growth and development. Larger arrays of breeding germplasm were subsequently genotyped and phenotyped under the auspices of the CAP project. This provided sets of 247 accessions phenotyped for growth habit and 2,473 accessions phenotyped for inflorescence type. Each of the larger populations was genotyped with 3,072 SNPs derived from the original set of 4,608. Results Significant associations with SNPs located in the vicinity of the loci involved in growth habit and inflorescence type were found in the CAP Core. Differentiation of true and spurious associations was not possible without a priori knowledge of the candidate genes, based on re-sequencing. The re-sequencing data were used to define allele types of the determinant genes based on functional polymorphisms. In a second round of association mapping, these synthetic markers based on allele types gave the most significant associations. When the synthetic markers were used as anchor points for analysis of interactions, we detected other known-function genes and candidate loci involved in the control of growth habit and inflorescence type. We

  14. Research on Adaptive Neural Network Control System Based on Nonlinear U-Model with Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengxia Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available U-model can approximate a large class of smooth nonlinear time-varying delay system to any accuracy by using time-varying delay parameters polynomial. This paper proposes a new approach, namely, U-model approach, to solving the problems of analysis and synthesis for nonlinear systems. Based on the idea of discrete-time U-model with time-varying delay, the identification algorithm of adaptive neural network is given for the nonlinear model. Then, the controller is designed by using the Newton-Raphson formula and the stability analysis is given for the closed-loop nonlinear systems. Finally, illustrative examples are given to show the validity and applicability of the obtained results.

  15. The Investigation of EM Scattering from the Time-Varying Overturning Wave Crest Model by the IEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Meng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of the electromagnetic (EM scattering of time-varying overturning wave crests is a worthwhile endeavor. Overturning wave crest is one of the reasons of sea spike generation, which increases the probability of false radar alarms and reduces the performance of multitarget detection in the environment. A three-dimensional (3D time-varying overturning wave crest model is presented in this paper; this 3D model is an improvement of the traditional two-dimensional (2D time-varying overturning wave crest model. The integral equation method (IEM was employed to investigate backward scattering radar cross sections (RCS at various incident angles of the 3D overturning wave crest model. The super phenomenon, where the intensity of horizontal polarization scattering is greater than that of vertical polarization scattering, is an important feature of sea spikes. Simulation results demonstrate that super phenomena may occur in some time samples as variations in the overturning wave crest.

  16. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  17. Sensitivities of statistical distribution model and diffusion kurtosis model in varying microstructural environments: a Monte Carlo study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chu-Yu; Bennett, Kevin M; Debbins, Josef P

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the microstructural sensitivity of the statistical distribution and diffusion kurtosis (DKI) models of non-monoexponential signal attenuation in the brain using diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI). We first developed a simulation of 2-D water diffusion inside simulated tissue consisting of semi-permeable cells and a variable cell size. We simulated a DWI acquisition of the signal in a volume using a pulsed gradient spin echo (PGSE) pulse sequence, and fitted the models to the simulated DWI signals using b-values up to 2500 s/mm(2). For comparison, we calculated the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of the monoexponential model (b-value=1000 s/mm(2)). In separate experiments, we varied the cell size (5-10-15 μm), cell volume fraction (0.50-0.65-0.80), and membrane permeability (0.001-0.01-0.1mm/s) to study how the fitted parameters tracked simulated microstructural changes. The ADC was sensitive to all the simulated microstructural changes except the decrease in membrane permeability. The ADC increased with larger cell size, smaller cell volume fraction, and larger membrane permeability. The σstat of the statistical distribution model increased exclusively with a decrease in cell volume fraction. The Kapp of the DKI model was exclusively increased with decreased cell size and decreased with increasing membrane permeability. These results suggest that the non-monoexponential models of water diffusion have different, specific microstructural sensitivity, and a combination of the models may give insights into the microstructural underpinning of tissue pathology.

  18. Disrupted bandcount doubling in an AC-DC boost PFC circuit modeled by a time varying map

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avrutin, Viktor; Zhusubaliyev, Zhanybai T.; Aroudi, Abdelali El;

    2016-01-01

    averaged models. In this paper, we derive a time varying discretetime map modeling the behavior of a power factor correction AC-DC boost converter. This map is derived in closed-form and is able to faithfully reproduce the system behavior under realistic conditions. In the chaotic regime the map exhibits...

  19. Modeling the time-varying interaction between surface water and groundwater bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gliege, Steffen; Steidl, Jörg; Lischeid, Gunnar; Merz, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    The countless kettle holes (small lakes) in the Late Pleistocene landscapes of Northern Europe have important ecological and hydrological functions. On the one hand they act as depressions in which water and solutes of mainly agriculturally used catchments accumulate. On the other hand they operate as biochemical reactors with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sequestration, and as major sinks for nutrients and contaminants. Even small kettle holes often are hydraulically connected to the uppermost groundwater system: Groundwater discharges into the kettle hole on one side, and the aquifer is recharged from the kettle hole water body on the other side. Thus kettle hole biogeochemical processes are both affected by groundwater and vice versa. Groundwater flow direction and velocity into and out of the kettle hole often is not stable over time. Groundwater flow direction might reverse at the downstream part, resulting in repeated recycling of groundwater and corresponding solute turnover within the kettle holes. A sound understanding of this intricate interplay is a necessary prerequisite for better understanding of the biogeochemistry of this terrestrial-aquatic interface. A numerical experiment was used to quantify the lateral solute exchange between a kettle hole and the surrounding groundwater. A vertical cross section through the real existing catchment of a kettle hole was chosen. Glacial till represents the lower boundary. The heterogeneity of the subsurface was reproduced by various parameterizations of the soil hydraulic properties as well as varying the thickness of the unconfined aquifer or the lateral boundary conditions. In total 24 different parameterizations were implemented in the modeling software HydroGeoSphere (HGS). HGS is suitable to calculate the fluid exchange between surface and subsurface simultaneously and in a physically based way. The simulation runs were done for the period from November 1994 to October 2014. All results were

  20. Extending the Utility of the Parabolic Approximation in Medical Ultrasound Using Wide-Angle Diffraction Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneson, Joshua E

    2017-04-01

    Wide-angle parabolic models are commonly used in geophysics and underwater acoustics but have seen little application in medical ultrasound. Here, a wide-angle model for continuous-wave high-intensity ultrasound beams is derived, which approximates the diffraction process more accurately than the commonly used Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov (KZK) equation without increasing implementation complexity or computing time. A method for preventing the high spatial frequencies often present in source boundary conditions from corrupting the solution is presented. Simulations of shallowly focused axisymmetric beams using both the wide-angle and standard parabolic models are compared to assess the accuracy with which they model diffraction effects. The wide-angle model proposed here offers improved focusing accuracy and less error throughout the computational domain than the standard parabolic model, offering a facile method for extending the utility of existing KZK codes.

  1. Model-Free Adaptive Switching Control of Time-Varying Plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Battistelli, Giorgio; Hespanha, João P.; Mosca, Edoardo; Tesi, Pietro

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of controlling an uncertain time-varying plant by means of a finite family of candidate controllers supervised by an appropriate switching logic. It is assumed that, at every time, the plant consists of an uncertain single-input/single output linear system. It is sho

  2. An internal model approach to (optimal) frequency regulation in power grids with time-varying voltages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trip, Sebastian; Buerger, Mathias; De Persis, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of frequency regulation in power grids under unknown and possible time-varying load changes, while minimizing the generation costs. We formulate this problem as an output agreement problem for distribution networks and address it using incremental passivity and distrib

  3. Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

  4. A linear input-varying framework for modeling and control of morphing aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Daniel T.

    2011-12-01

    Morphing, which changes the shape and configuration of an aircraft, is being adopted to expand mission capabilities of aircraft. The introduction of biological-inspired morphing is particularly attractive in that highly-agile birds present examples of desired shapes and configurations. A previous study adopted such morphing by designing a multiple-joint wing that represented the shoulder and elbow joints of a bird. The resulting variable-gull aircraft could rotate the wing section vertically at these joints to alter the flight dynamics. This paper extends that multiple-joint concept to allow a variable-sweep wing with independent inboard and outboard sections. The aircraft is designed and analyzed to demonstrate the range of flight dynamics which result from the morphing. In particular, the vehicle is shown to have enhanced crosswind rejection which is a certainly critical metric for the urban environments in which these aircraft are anticipated to operate. Mission capability can be enabled by morphing an aircraft to optimize its aerodynamics and associated flight dynamics for each maneuver. Such optimization often consider the steady-state behavior of the configuration; however, the transient behavior must also be analyzed. In particular, the time-varying inertias have an effect on the flight dynamics that can adversely affect mission performance if not properly compensated. These inertia terms cause coupling between the longitudinal and lateral-directional dynamics even for maneuvers around trim. A simulation of a variable-sweep aircraft undergoing a symmetric morphing for an altitude change shows a noticeable lateral translation in the flight path because of the induced asymmetry. The flight dynamics of morphing aircraft must be analyzed to ensure shape-changing trajectories have the desired characteristics. The tools for describing flight dynamics of fixed-geometry aircraft are not valid for time-varying systems such as morphing aircraft. This paper introduces

  5. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Impact of Varied Discrimination Parameters on Mixed-Format Item Response Theory Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2013-01-01

    Whittaker, Chang, and Dodd compared the performance of model selection criteria when selecting among mixed-format IRT models and found that the criteria did not perform adequately when selecting the more parameterized models. It was suggested by M. S. Johnson that the problems when selecting the more parameterized models may be because of the low…

  7. Mass balance-based plant-wide wastewater treatment plant models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2006-07-03

    Jul 3, 2006 ... Mass balance-based plant-wide wastewater treatment plant models – Part ... organics under anaerobic conditions .... which limit the capacity of the WWTP. ..... Thermophilic Heat Treatment on the Anaerobic Digestibility of Pri-.

  8. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vest Christiansen, Anders; Auken, Esben; Marker, Pernille Aabye

    Regional hydrological models are important tools in water resources management, but prediction uncertainties are often high due to non-uniqueness of the hydrostratigraphical model. This model is often based on borehole lithology only. However, a much better resolution can be obtained from large...... is calibrated against observed lithological data. In other words, the translator function interprets the geophysical resistivities into a 3D clay fraction model and the 3D clay fraction model is then turned into a zonation for the hydrological model by a K-means clustering. We present the methodology by show...

  9. A sub-circuit MOSFET model with a wide temperature range including cryogenic temperature*

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jia Kan; Sun Weifeng; Shi Longxing

    2011-01-01

    A sub-circuit SPICE model ofa MOSFET for low temperature operation is presented. Two resistors are introduced for the freeze-out effect, and the explicit behavioral models are developed for them. The model can be used in a wide temperature range covering both cryogenic temperature and regular temperatures.

  10. Model-Free Adaptive Switching Control of Time-Varying Plants

    OpenAIRE

    Battistelli, Giorgio; Hespanha, João P.; Mosca, Edoardo; Tesi, Pietro

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of controlling an uncertain time-varying plant by means of a finite family of candidate controllers supervised by an appropriate switching logic. It is assumed that, at every time, the plant consists of an uncertain single-input/single output linear system. It is shown that stability of the switched closed-loop system can be ensured provided that 1) at every time there is at least one candidate controller capable of potentially stabilizing the current time-inv...

  11. Comparison of radar and gauge precipitation data in watershed models across varying spatial and temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation is a key control on watershed hydrologic modelling output, with errors in rainfall propagating through subsequent stages of water quantity and quality analysis. Most watershed models incorporate precipitation data from rain gauges; higher-resolution data sources are...

  12. Comparison of radar and gauge precipitation data in watershed models across varying spatial and temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Precipitation is a key control on watershed hydrologic modelling output, with errors in rainfall propagating through subsequent stages of water quantity and quality analysis. Most watershed models incorporate precipitation data from rain gauges; higher-resolution data sources are...

  13. Improving assessment accuracy for lake biological condition by classifying lakes with diatom typology, varying metrics and modeling multimetric indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Stevenson, R Jan

    2017-12-31

    Site grouping by regions or typologies, site-specific modeling and varying metrics among site groups are four approaches that account for natural variation, which can be a major source of error in ecological assessments. Using a data set from the 2007 National Lakes Assessment project of the USEPA, we compared performances of multimetric indices (MMI) of biological condition that were developed: (1) with different lake grouping methods, ecoregions or diatom typologies; (2) by varying or not varying metrics among site groups; and (3) with different statistical techniques for modeling diatom metric values expected for minimally disturbed condition for each lake. Hierarchical modeling of MMIs, i.e. grouping sites by ecoregions or typologies and then modeling natural variability in metrics among lakes within groups, substantially improved MMI performance compared to using either ecoregions or site-specific modeling alone. Compared with MMIs based on ecoregion site groups, MMI precision and sensitivity to human disturbance were better when sites were grouped by diatom typologies and assessing performance nationwide. However, when MMI performance was evaluated at site group levels, as some government agencies often do, there was little difference in MMI performance between the two site grouping methods. Low numbers of reference and highly impacted sites in some typology groups likely limited MMI performance at the group level of analysis. Varying metrics among site groups did not improve MMI performance. Random forest models for site-specific expected metric values performed better than classification and regression tree and multiple linear regression, except when numbers of reference sites were small in site groups. Then classification and regression tree models were most precise. Based on our results, we recommend hierarchical modeling in future large scale lake assessments where lakes are grouped by ecoregions or diatom typologies and site-specific metric models are

  14. Multivariate Time-Varying G-H Copula GARCH Model and Its Application in the Financial Market Risk Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-an Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking full advantage of the strengths of G-H distribution, Copula function, and GARCH model in depicting the return distribution of financial asset, we construct the multivariate time-varying G-H Copula GARCH model which can comprehensively describe “asymmetric, leptokurtic, and heavy-tail” characteristics, the time-varying volatility characteristics, and the extreme-tail dependence characteristics of financial asset return. Based on the conditional maximum likelihood estimator and IFM method, we propose the estimation algorithm of model parameters. Using the quantile function and simulation method, we propose the calculation algorithm of VaR on the basis of this model. To apply this model on studying a real financial market risk, we select the SSCI (China, HSI (Hong Kong, China, TAIEX (Taiwan, China, and SP500 (USA from January 3, 2000, to June 18, 2010, as the samples to estimate the model parameters and to measure the VaRs of various index risk portfolios under different confidence levels empirically. The results of the application example are in line with the actual situation and the risk diversification theory of portfolio. To a certain extent, these results also justify the feasibility and effectiveness of the multivariate time-varying G-H Copula GARCH model in depicting the return distribution of financial assets.

  15. Time-varying disaster risk models: An empirical assessment of the Rietz-Barro hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Irarrazabal, Alfonso; Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

    This paper revisits the fit of disaster risk models where a representative agent has recursive preferences and the probability of a macroeconomic disaster changes over time. We calibrate the model as in Wachter (2013) and perform two sets of tests to assess the empirical performance of the model ...

  16. Habitat Modeling of Alien Plant Species at Varying Levels of Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution models of invasive plants are very useful tools for conservation management. There are challenges in modeling expanding populations, especially in a dynamic environment, and when data are limited. In this paper, predictive habitat models were assessed for three invasive plant species, at differing levels of occurrence, using two different habitat modeling techniques: logistic regression and maximum entropy. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and other landscape characteristics is assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy models were assessed independently. Ensemble models were developed to combine the predictions of the two analysis approaches to obtain a more robust prediction estimate. All species had strong models with Area Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of >0.75. The species with the highest occurrence, Ligustrum spp., had the greatest agreement between the models (93%. Lolium arundinaceum had the most disagreement between models at 33% and the lowest AUC values. Overall, the strength of integrative modeling in assessing and understanding habitat modeling was demonstrated.

  17. Permanence of a Nicholson’s Blowflies Model with Feedback Control and Multiple Time-varying Delays

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xiao-ying; SHI Chun-ling

    2015-01-01

    This paper covers the dynamic behaviors for a class of Nicholson’s blowflies model with multiple time-varying delay and feedback control. By using the dierential inequality theory, a set of sucient conditions are obtained to ensure the permanence of the system. Our result shows that feedback control variables have no influence on the permanence of the system.

  18. Bivariate functional data clustering: grouping streams based on a varying coefficient model of the stream water and air temperature relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Li; X. Deng; Andy Dolloff; E. P. Smith

    2015-01-01

    A novel clustering method for bivariate functional data is proposed to group streams based on their water–air temperature relationship. A distance measure is developed for bivariate curves by using a time-varying coefficient model and a weighting scheme. This distance is also adjusted by spatial correlation of streams via the variogram. Therefore, the proposed...

  19. Modelling the Earth's static and time-varying gravity field using a combination of GRACE and GOCE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farahani, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis is modelling the static and time-varying parts of the Earth's gravity field at the global scale based on data acquired by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In addition, a new

  20. Modelling the Earth's static and time-varying gravity field using a combination of GRACE and GOCE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farahani, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis is modelling the static and time-varying parts of the Earth's gravity field at the global scale based on data acquired by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In addition, a new methodol

  1. On-line updating Gaussian mixture model for aircraft wing spar damage evaluation under time-varying boundary condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Lei; Yuan, Shenfang; Chang, Fu-Kuo; Bao, Qiao; Mei, Hanfei

    2014-12-01

    Structural health monitoring technology for aerospace structures has gradually turned from fundamental research to practical implementations. However, real aerospace structures work under time-varying conditions that introduce uncertainties to signal features that are extracted from sensor signals, giving rise to difficulty in reliably evaluating the damage. This paper proposes an online updating Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based damage evaluation method to improve damage evaluation reliability under time-varying conditions. In this method, Lamb-wave-signal variation indexes and principle component analysis (PCA) are adopted to obtain the signal features. A baseline GMM is constructed on the signal features acquired under time-varying conditions when the structure is in a healthy state. By adopting the online updating mechanism based on a moving feature sample set and inner probability structural reconstruction, the probability structures of the GMM can be updated over time with new monitoring signal features to track the damage progress online continuously under time-varying conditions. This method can be implemented without any physical model of damage or structure. A real aircraft wing spar, which is an important load-bearing structure of an aircraft, is adopted to validate the proposed method. The validation results show that the method is effective for edge crack growth monitoring of the wing spar bolts holes under the time-varying changes in the tightness degree of the bolts.

  2. Global Stability of Multigroup SIRS Epidemic Model with Varying Population Sizes and Stochastic Perturbation around Equilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoming Fan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss multigroup SIRS (susceptible, infectious, and recovered epidemic models with random perturbations. We carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model; when reproduction number ℛ0>1, we deduce the globally asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium by measuring the difference between the solution and the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model in time average. Numerical methods are employed to illustrate the dynamic behavior of the model and simulate the system of equations developed. The effect of the rate of immunity loss on susceptible and recovered individuals is also analyzed in the deterministic model.

  3. Modelling plasma response to RMP fields in ASDEX Upgrade with varying edge safety factor and triangularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Liu, Y. Q.; Kirk, A.; Wang, N.; Liang, Y.; Ryan, D.; Suttrop, W.; Dunne, M.; Fischer, R.; Fuchs, J. C.; Kurzan, B.; Piovesan, P.; Willensdorfer, M.; Zhong, F. C.; the ASDEX Upgrade Team; the EUROfusion MST1 Team

    2016-12-01

    Toroidal computations are performed using the MARS-F code (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681), in order to understand correlations between the plasma response and the observed mitigation of the edge localized modes (ELM) using resonant magnetic perturbation fields in ASDEX Upgrade. In particular, systematic numerical scans of the edge safety factor reveal that the amplitude of the resonant poloidal harmonic of the response radial magnetic field near the plasma edge, as well as the plasma radial displacement near the X-point, can serve as good indicators for predicting the optimal toroidal phasing between the upper and lower rows of coils in ASDEX Upgrade. The optimal coil phasing scales roughly linearly with the edge safety factor {{q}95} , for various choices of the toroidal mode number n  =  1-4 of the coil configuration. The optimal coil phasing is also predicted to vary with the upper triangularity of the plasma shape in ASDEX Upgrade. Furthermore, multiple resonance effects of the plasma response, with continuously varying {{q}95} , are computationally observed and investigated.

  4. Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

    2001-11-09

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

  5. Representing time-varying cyclic dynamics using multiple-subject state-space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Hamaker, Ellen L; Fujita, Frank; Boker, Steven M

    2009-11-01

    Over the last few decades, researchers have become increasingly aware of the need to consider intraindividual variability in the form of cyclic processes. In this paper, we review two contemporary cyclic state-space models: Young and colleagues' dynamic harmonic regression model and Harvey and colleagues' stochastic cycle model. We further derive the analytic equivalence between the two models, discuss their unique strengths and propose multiple-subject extensions. Using data from a study on human postural dynamics and a daily affect study, we demonstrate the use of these models to represent within-person non-stationarities in cyclic dynamics and interindividual differences therein. The use of diagnostic tools for evaluating model fit is also illustrated.

  6. Modelling the solidification of ductile cast iron parts with varying wall thicknesses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerre, Mathias Karsten; Tiedje, Niels Skat; Thorborg, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    ] with a 2D FE solution of the heat conduction equation is developed in an in-house code and model parameters are calibrated using experimental data from representative castings made of ductile cast iron. The main focus is on the influence of casting thickness and resulting local cooling conditions......In the present paper modelling the solidification of cast iron parts is considered. Common for previous efforts in this field is that they have mainly considered thin walled to medium thickness castings. Hence, a numerical model combining the solidification model presented by Lesoultet al. [1...

  7. New ghost-node method for linking different models with varied grid refinement

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S.C.; Dickinson, J.E.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Leake, S.A.; Zyvoloski, G.A.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.

    2006-01-01

    A flexible, robust method for linking grids of locally refined ground-water flow models constructed with different numerical methods is needed to address a variety of hydrologic problems. This work outlines and tests a new ghost-node model-linking method for a refined "child" model that is contained within a larger and coarser "parent" model that is based on the iterative method of Steffen W. Mehl and Mary C. Hill (2002, Advances in Water Res., 25, p. 497-511; 2004, Advances in Water Res., 27, p. 899-912). The method is applicable to steady-state solutions for ground-water flow. Tests are presented for a homogeneous two-dimensional system that has matching grids (parent cells border an integer number of child cells) or nonmatching grids. The coupled grids are simulated by using the finite-difference and finite-element models MODFLOW and FEHM, respectively. The simulations require no alteration of the MODFLOW or FEHM models and are executed using a batch file on Windows operating systems. Results indicate that when the grids are matched spatially so that nodes and child-cell boundaries are aligned, the new coupling technique has error nearly equal to that when coupling two MODFLOW models. When the grids are nonmatching, model accuracy is slightly increased compared to that for matching-grid cases. Overall, results indicate that the ghost-node technique is a viable means to couple distinct models because the overall head and flow errors relative to the analytical solution are less than if only the regional coarse-grid model was used to simulate flow in the child model's domain.

  8. Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides

  9. Early marketing matters : A time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, E.C.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    2010-01-01

    Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides manager

  10. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  11. Using Video Modeling with Substitutable Loops to Teach Varied Play to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupere, Sally; MacDonald, Rebecca P. F.; Ahearn, William H.

    2013-01-01

    Children with autism often engage in repetitive play with little variation in the actions performed or items used. This study examined the use of video modeling with scripted substitutable loops on children's pretend play with trained and untrained characters. Three young children with autism were shown a video model of scripted toy play that…

  12. Numerical modeling of sandwich panel response to ballistic loading - energy balance for varying impactor geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2007-01-01

    A sandwich panel is described by an axisymmetric lumped mass- spring model. The panel compliance is simplified, considering only core shear deformation uniformly distributed across the core thickness. Transverse penetrating impact is modeled for impactors of diameters comparable to the panel thic...

  13. Quantification of the effect of spatially varying environmental contaminants into a cost model for soil remediation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broos, J.M.; Aarts, L.; Tooren, C.F.; Stein, A.

    1999-01-01

    In this study we investigated the effects of spatial variability of soil contaminants on cost calculations for soil remediation. Most cost models only provide a single figure, whereas spatial variability is one of the sources to contribute to the uncertainty. A cost model is applied to a study site

  14. Mathematical Modeling And Simulation of Photo-Voltaic Converter Operation when Varying Different Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miholca CONSTANTIN

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a method of mathematical modelling of a solar converter using the results of full-scale testing. The advantages of analytical modelling method applied to photovoltaic systems are also presented; this is because the model parameters are directly measurable by data acquisition from the photovoltaic field consisting of photovoltaic cells type Z - (mono-crystalline photovoltaic. The model parameter also includes both the photovoltaic cell characteristics as a device (forming the photovoltaic field and the temperature influence on the photovoltaic field performance. The results of the photovoltaic model numerical simulation (PV to the major parameters conversion variation can also be used to design and assess the performance of low and medium - power photovoltaic systems operating in single regime (to supply the home appliances.

  15. Predicting the Best Fit: A Comparison of Response Surface Models for Midazolam and Alfentanil Sedation in Procedures With Varying Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Jing-Yang; Ting, Chien-Kun; Mandell, M Susan; Chang, Kuang-Yi; Teng, Wei-Nung; Huang, Yu-Yin; Tsou, Mei-Yung

    2016-08-01

    Selecting an effective dose of sedative drugs in combined upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy is complicated by varying degrees of pain stimulation. We tested the ability of 5 response surface models to predict depth of sedation after administration of midazolam and alfentanil in this complex model. The procedure was divided into 3 phases: esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), colonoscopy, and the time interval between the 2 (intersession). The depth of sedation in 33 adult patients was monitored by Observer Assessment of Alertness/Scores. A total of 218 combinations of midazolam and alfentanil effect-site concentrations derived from pharmacokinetic models were used to test 5 response surface models in each of the 3 phases of endoscopy. Model fit was evaluated with objective function value, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), and Spearman ranked correlation. A model was arbitrarily defined as accurate if the predicted probability is fit. The reduced Greco model had the lowest objective function value and AICc and thus the best fit. This model was reliable with acceptable predictive ability based on adequate clinical correlation. We suggest that this model has practical clinical value for patients undergoing procedures with varying degrees of stimulation.

  16. Observations from using models to fit the gas production of varying volume test cells and landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamborn, Julia

    2012-12-01

    Landfill operators are looking for more accurate models to predict waste degradation and landfill gas production. The simple microbial growth and decay models, whilst being easy to use, have been shown to be inaccurate. Many of the newer and more complex (component) models are highly parameter hungry and many of the required parameters have not been collected or measured at full-scale landfills. This paper compares the results of using different models (LANDGEM, HBM, and two Monod models developed by the author) to fit the gas production of laboratory scale, field test cell and full-scale landfills and discusses some observations that can be made regarding the scalability of gas generation rates. The comparison of these results show that the fast degradation rate that occurs at laboratory scale is not replicated at field-test cell and full-scale landfills. At small scale, all the models predict a slower rate of gas generation than actually occurs. At field test cell and full-scale a number of models predict a faster gas generation than actually occurs. Areas for future work have been identified, which include investigations into the capture efficiency of gas extraction systems and into the parameter sensitivity and identification of the critical parameters for field-test cell and full-scale landfill predication.

  17. Host responses to sepsis vary in different low-lethality murine models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori F Gentile

    Full Text Available Animal models for the study of sepsis are being increasingly scrutinized, despite their essential role for early translational research. In particular, recent studies have suggested that at the level of the leukocyte transcriptome, murine models of burns, trauma and endotoxemia markedly differ from their human equivalents, and are only weakly similar amongst themselves. We compared the plasma cytokine and leukocyte transcriptome responses between two different low-lethality murine models of polymicrobial intra-abdominal sepsis.Six to ten week male C57BL/6j mice underwent either the 'gold standard' cecal ligation and puncture (CLP model of intra-abdominal sepsis or administration of a cecal slurry (CS, where cecal contents are injected intraperitoneally. Surviving mice were euthanized at two hours, one or three days after sepsis.The murine leukocyte transcriptomic response to the CLP and CS models of sepsis was surprisingly dissimilar at two hours, one, and three days after sepsis. The Pearson correlation coefficient for the maximum change in expression for the entire leukocyte transcriptome that changed significantly over time (n = 19,071 was R = 0.54 (R2 = 0.297. The CS model resulted in greater magnitude of early inflammatory gene expression changes in response to sepsis with associated increased production of inflammatory chemokines and cytokines. Two hours after sepsis, CLP had more significant expression of genes associated with IL-10 signaling pathways, whereas CS had greater expression of genes related to CD28, apoptosis, IL-1 and T-cell receptor signaling. By three days, the changes in gene expression in both sepsis models were returning to baseline in surviving animals.These analyses reveal that the murine blood leukocyte response to sepsis is highly dependent on which model of intra-abdominal sepsis is employed, despite their similar lethality. It may be difficult to extrapolate findings from one murine model to another

  18. Variable Selection for Generalized Varying Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Diverging Number of Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng-yan Lin; Yu-ze Yuan

    2012-01-01

    Semiparametric models with diverging number of predictors arise in many contemporary scientific areas. Variable selection for these models consists of two components: model selection for non-parametric components and selection of significant variables for the parametric portion.In this paper,we consider a variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximation with SCAD penalty.The proposed procedure simultaneously selects significant variables in the parametric components and the nonparametric components.With appropriate selection of tuning parameters,we establish the consistency and sparseness of this procedure.

  19. An estimation model of time-varying origin-destination flows in expressway corridors based on unscented Kalman filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI JunWei; LIN BoLiang; SUN ZhiHui; GENG XueFei

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of measurable time series of mainline and ramp flows from traffic counts and the assumption of travel time distributions, this research presents a dynamic system model and its on-line estimation algorithm for recursive estimation of Ume-varying origin-destination (OD) matrices in expressway corridors. The proposed model employs a macro-traffic flow model to estimate travel times of OD flows and uses parameters of the traffic model as state variables, which are added to the constrained function of the system. To improve the model efficiency, we revise the travel time distribution based on the feature of normal distribution. The research employs a newly developed filtering technique, called unscented Kalman filter. The proposed model is evaluated with simulation experiments.Numerical analyses with respect to the sensitivity of the selection of initial parameters on the estimation results indicate that the proposed model is sufficiently reasonable and stable for real-world applications.

  20. An estimation model of time-varying origin-destination flows in expressway corridors based on unscented Kalman filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of measurable time series of mainline and ramp flows from traffic counts and the assumption of travel time distributions, this research presents a dynamic system model and its on-line estimation algorithm for recursive estimation of time-varying origin-destination (OD) matrices in expressway corridors. The proposed model employs a macro-traffic flow model to estimate travel times of OD flows and uses parameters of the traffic model as state variables, which are added to the constrained function of the system. To improve the model efficiency, we revise the travel time distribution based on the feature of normal distribution. The research employs a newly developed filtering technique, called unscented Kalman filter. The proposed model is evaluated with simulation experiments. Numerical analyses with respect to the sensitivity of the selection of initial parameters on the estimation results indicate that the proposed model is sufficiently reasonable and stable for real-world appli-cations.

  1. A Partial Backlogging Inventory Model with Time-Varying Demand During Shortage Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Mang

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Harris’s classic square root economic order quantity (EOQ model forms the basis for many other models that relax one or more of its assumptions. A key assumption of the basic EOQ model is that stockouts are not permitted. Due to the excess demands, stock-out situations may arise occasionally. Sometimes, shortages are permitted and they are backordered and satisfied in the very next replenishment. Therefore the objective of this paper is to develop a partial backlogging inventory model, and proposes a new algorithm to minimize the total cost, at the same time also propose the prediction method and algorithm of ordering period. Finally, a practical example of the numerical analysis is given.

  2. Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.

  3. Varying facets of a model of competitive learning: the role of updates and memory

    CERN Document Server

    Bhat, Ajaz Ahmad

    2011-01-01

    The effects of memory and different updating paradigms in a game-theoretic model of competitive learning, comprising two distinct agent types, are analysed. For nearly all the updating schemes, the phase diagram of the model consists of a disordered phase separating two ordered phases at coexistence: the critical exponents of these transitions belong to the generalised universality class of the voter model. Also, as appropriate for a model of competing strategies, we examine the situation when the two types have different characteristics, i.e. their parameters are chosen to be away from coexistence. We find linear response behaviour in the expected regimes but, more interestingly, are able to probe the effect of memory. This suggests that even the less successful agent types can win over the more successful ones, provided they have better retentive powers.

  4. Bifurcation of Positive Equilibria in Nonlinear Structured Population Models with Varying Mortality Rates

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    A parameter-dependent model involving nonlinear diffusion for an age-structured population is studied. The parameter measures the intensity of the mortality. A bifurcation approach is used to establish existence of positive equilibrium solutions.

  5. Cylindrically symmetric cosmological model in the presence of bulk stress with varying $\\Lambda$

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V G METE; A S NIMKAR; V D ELKAR

    2016-10-01

    Cylindrically symmetric non-static space–time is investigated in the presence of bulk stress given by Landau and Lifshitz. To get a solution, a supplementary condition between metric potentials is used. The viscosity coefficient of the bulk viscous fluid is assumed to be a power function of mass density whereas the coefficient of shear viscosity is considered as proportional to the scale of expansion in the model. Also some physical and geometrical properties of the model are discussed.

  6. Modular use of human body models of varying levels of complexity: Validation of head kinematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, William; Koya, Bharath; Davis, Matthew L; Gayzik, F Scott

    2017-05-29

    The significant computational resources required to execute detailed human body finite-element models has motivated the development of faster running, simplified models (e.g., GHBMC M50-OS). Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to modularly incorporate the validated GHBMC M50-O brain model into the simplified model (GHBMC M50-OS+B), which allows for localized analysis of the brain in a fraction of the computation time required for the detailed model. The objective of this study is to validate the head and neck kinematics of the GHBMC M50-O and M50-OS (detailed and simplified versions of the same model) against human volunteer test data in frontal and lateral loading. Furthermore, the effect of modular insertion of the detailed brain model into the M50-OS is quantified. Data from the Navy Biodynamics Laboratory (NBDL) human volunteer studies, including a 15g frontal, 8g frontal, and 7g lateral impact, were reconstructed and simulated using LS-DYNA. A five-point restraint system was used for all simulations, and initial positions of the models were matched with volunteer data using settling and positioning techniques. Both the frontal and lateral simulations were run with the M50-O, M50-OS, and M50-OS+B with active musculature for a total of nine runs. Normalized run times for the various models used in this study were 8.4 min/ms for the M50-O, 0.26 min/ms for the M50-OS, and 0.97 min/ms for the M50-OS+B, a 32- and 9-fold reduction in run time, respectively. Corridors were reanalyzed for head and T1 kinematics from the NBDL studies. Qualitative evaluation of head rotational accelerations and linear resultant acceleration, as well as linear resultant T1 acceleration, showed reasonable results between all models and the experimental data. Objective evaluation of the results for head center of gravity (CG) accelerations was completed via ISO TS 18571, and indicated scores of 0.673 (M50-O), 0.638 (M50-OS), and 0.656 (M50-OS+B) for the 15g frontal impact

  7. Modelling the loss of genetic diversity in vole populations in a spatially and temporally varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Østergaard, Siri; Pertoldi, Cino

    2003-01-01

    a genetically explicit individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a dynamic landscape model was used to obtain measures for the genetic status of simulated vole populations. The rate of loss of expected heterozygosity (He) was calculated for simulated populations using two levels of spatial and temporal...... heterogeneity. Results showed that both spatial and temporal heterogeneity exerted an influence on the rate of loss of genetic diversity, but the precise effect was a balance between the effects of population sub-structuring, the frequency of founder effects and population size. These were in turn related...... of heterozygosity was corrected for the harmonic mean of the population size, the rate of loss was almost identical in the four scenarios. Unlike classical genetic models, IBMs are flexible enough to mimic real population processes under a range of environmental and behavioural conditions. We conclude that IBMs...

  8. Numerical modeling of sandwich panel response to ballistic loading - energy balance for varying impactor geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2007-01-01

    A sandwich panel is described by an axisymmetric lumped mass- spring model. The panel compliance is simplified, considering only core shear deformation uniformly distributed across the core thickness. Transverse penetrating impact is modeled for impactors of diameters comparable to the panel...... thickness but significantly smaller than panel length dimensions. Experimental data for the total loss in impactor kinetic energy and momentum and estimated damage energy are described. For a selection of impactor tip shapes, the numerical model is used to evaluate different simplified force histories...... between the impactor and the panel during penetration. The force histories are selected from a primary criterion of conservation of linear momentum in the impactor-panel system, and evaluated according to agreement with the total measured energy balance....

  9. Nitric oxide levels in the aqueous humor vary in different ocular hypertension experimental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Wen Lu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationships among intraocular pressure (IOP, nitric oxide (NO levels, and aqueous flow rates in experimental ocular hypertension models. A total of 75 rabbits were used. One of four different materials [i.e., α-chymotrypsin, latex microspheres (Polybead, red blood cell ghosts, or sodium hyaluronate (Healon GV] was injected into the eyes of the 15 animals in each experimental group; the remaining 15 rabbits were reserved for a control group. The IOP changes in the five groups were recorded on postinduction Days 1–3, Day 7, Day 14, Day 30, Day 60, Day 90, and Day 120. On postinduction Day 7, the dynamics and NO levels in the aqueous humor were recorded. Significant IOP elevations were induced by α-chymotrypsin (p < 0.01 and Polybead (p < 0.01 on each postinduction day. In the red blood cell ghosts model, significant elevations (p < 0.01 were found on postinduction Days 1–3; Healon GV significantly elevated IOP (p < 0.01 on postinduction Day 1 and Day 2. On postinduction Day 7, the aqueous humor NO levels increased significantly in the models of α-chymotrypsin, Polybead, and red blood cell ghosts (all p < 0.01, while the aqueous flow rates were significantly reduced in the models of α-chymotrypsin and Polybead (p < 0.005. Persistent ocular hypertension models were induced with α-chymotrypsin and Polybead in the rabbits. The Polybead model exhibited the characteristic of an increased aqueous humor NO level, similar to human eyes with acute angle-closure glaucoma and neovascular glaucoma.

  10. The influence of temperature on ozone production under varying NOx conditions - a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Jane; Mar, Kathleen A.; Ojha, Narendra; Butler, Tim M.

    2016-09-01

    Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of

  11. Modeling hyporheic exchange and in-stream transport with time-varying transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, A.; Harman, C. J.; Ward, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Transit time distributions (TTD) are used to understand in-stream transport and exchange with the hyporheic zone by quantifying the probability of water (and of dissolved material) taking time T to traverse the stream reach control volume. However, many studies using this method assume a TTD that is time-invariant, despite the time-variability of the streamflow. Others assume that storage is 'randomly sampled' or 'well-mixed' with a fixed volume or fixed exchange rate. Here we present a formulation for a time-variable TTD that relaxes both the time-invariant and 'randomly sampled' assumptions and only requires a few parameters. The framework is applied to transient storage, representing some combination of in-stream and hyporheic storage, along a stream reach. This approach does not assume that hyporheic and dead-zone storage is fixed or temporally-invariant, and allows for these stores to be sampled in more physically representative ways determined by the system itself. Instead of using probability distributions of age, probability distributions of storage (ranked by age) called Ω functions are used to describe how the off-stream storage is sampled in the outflow. Here the Ω function approach is used to describe hyporheic exchange during diurnal fluctuations in streamflow in a gaining reach of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest. The breakthrough curves of salt slugs injected four hours apart over a 28-hour period show a systematic variation in transit time distribution. This new approach allows us to relate these salt slug TTDs to a corresponding time-variation in the Ω function, which can then be related to changes in in-stream storage and hyporheic zone mobilization under varying flow conditions. Thus, we can gain insights into how channel storage and hyporheic exchange are changing through time without having to specify difficult to measure or unmeasurable quantities of our system, such as total storage.

  12. The application of Dynamic Linear Bayesian Models in hydrological forecasting: Varying Coefficient Regression and Discount Weighted Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciupak, Maurycy; Ozga-Zielinski, Bogdan; Adamowski, Jan; Quilty, John; Khalil, Bahaa

    2015-11-01

    A novel implementation of Dynamic Linear Bayesian Models (DLBM), using either a Varying Coefficient Regression (VCR) or a Discount Weighted Regression (DWR) algorithm was used in the hydrological modeling of annual hydrographs as well as 1-, 2-, and 3-day lead time stream flow forecasting. Using hydrological data (daily discharge, rainfall, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures) from the Upper Narew River watershed in Poland, the forecasting performance of DLBM was compared to that of traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) and more recent artificial neural network (ANN) based models. Model performance was ranked DLBM-DWR > DLBM-VCR > MLR > ANN for both annual hydrograph modeling and 1-, 2-, and 3-day lead forecasting, indicating that the DWR and VCR algorithms, operating in a DLBM framework, represent promising new methods for both annual hydrograph modeling and short-term stream flow forecasting.

  13. A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trapman, Pieter; Meester, R.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a stochastic model, describing outbreaks of infectious diseases that have potentially great animal or human health consequences, and which can result in such severe economic losses that immediate sets of measures need to be taken to curb the spread. During an outbreak of

  14. Numerical modeling of shoreline undulations part 2: Varying wave climate and comparison with observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kærgaard, Kasper Hauberg; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    2013-01-01

    the observed shoreline features qualitatively and quantitatively. The model slightly over-predicts the scale of the feature and, associated with this, slightly under-predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the west coast of Denmark, the shore is exposed to waves with an angle...

  15. Investigation of effects of varying model inputs on mercury deposition estimates in the Southwest US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Myers

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model version 4.7.1 was used to simulate mercury wet and dry deposition for a domain covering the contiguous United States (US. The simulations used MM5-derived meteorological input fields and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA Clear Air Mercury Rule (CAMR emissions inventory. Using sensitivity simulations with different boundary conditions and tracer simulations, this investigation focuses on the contributions of boundary concentrations to deposited mercury in the Southwest (SW US. Concentrations of oxidized mercury species along the boundaries of the domain, in particular the upper layers of the domain, can make significant contributions to the simulated wet and dry deposition of mercury in the SW US. In order to better understand the contributions of boundary conditions to deposition, inert tracer simulations were conducted to quantify the relative amount of an atmospheric constituent transported across the boundaries of the domain at various altitudes and to quantify the amount that reaches and potentially deposits to the land surface in the SW US. Simulations using alternate sets of boundary concentrations, including estimates from global models (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chem (GEOS-Chem and the Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metals (GRAHM model, and alternate meteorological input fields (for different years are analyzed in this paper. CMAQ dry deposition in the SW US is sensitive to differences in the atmospheric dynamics and atmospheric mercury chemistry parameterizations between the global models used for boundary conditions.

  16. On estimation and tests of time-varying effects in the proportional hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas Harder; Martinussen, Torben

    Grambsch and Therneau (1994) suggest to use Schoenfeld's Residuals to investigate whether some of the regression coefficients in Cox'(1972) proportional hazards model are time-dependent. Their method is a one-step procedure based on Cox' initial estimate. We suggest an algorithm which in the first...

  17. A process-based model for aeolian sediment transport and spatiotemporal varying sediment availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoonhout, Bas M.; Vries, Sierd de

    2016-08-01

    Aeolian sediment transport is influenced by a variety of bed surface properties, like moisture, shells, vegetation, and nonerodible elements. The bed surface properties influence aeolian sediment transport by changing the sediment transport capacity and/or the sediment availability. The effect of bed surface properties on the transport capacity and sediment availability is typically incorporated through the velocity threshold. This approach appears to be a critical limitation in existing aeolian sediment transport models for simulation of real-world cases with spatiotemporal variations in bed surface properties. This paper presents a new model approach for multifraction aeolian sediment transport in which sediment availability is simulated rather than parameterized through the velocity threshold. The model can cope with arbitrary spatiotemporal configurations of bed surface properties that either limit or enhance the sediment availability or sediment transport capacity. The performance of the model is illustrated using four prototype cases, the simulation of two wind tunnel experiments from literature and a sensitivity analysis of newly introduced parameters.

  18. Investigation of effects of varying model inputs on mercury deposition estimates in the Southwest US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Myers

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model version 4.7.1 was used to simulate mercury wet and dry deposition for a domain covering the continental United States (US. The simulations used MM5-derived meteorological input fields and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA Clear Air Mercury Rule (CAMR emissions inventory. Using sensitivity simulations with different boundary conditions and tracer simulations, this investigation focuses on the contributions of boundary concentrations to deposited mercury in the Southwest (SW US. Concentrations of oxidized mercury species along the boundaries of the domain, in particular the upper layers of the domain, can make significant contributions to the simulated wet and dry deposition of mercury in the SW US. In order to better understand the contributions of boundary conditions to deposition, inert tracer simulations were conducted to quantify the relative amount of an atmospheric constituent transported across the boundaries of the domain at various altitudes and to quantify the amount that reaches and potentially deposits to the land surface in the SW US. Simulations using alternate sets of boundary concentrations, including estimates from global models (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chem (GEOS-Chem and the Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metals (GRAHM model, and alternate meteorological input fields (for different years are analyzed in this paper. CMAQ dry deposition in the SW US is sensitive to differences in the atmospheric dynamics and atmospheric mercury chemistry parameterizations between the global models used for boundary conditions.

  19. Using time-varying global sensitivity analysis to understand the importance of different uncertainty sources in hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Simulations from environmental models are affected by potentially large uncertainties stemming from various sources, including model parameters and observational uncertainty in the input/output data. Understanding the relative importance of such sources of uncertainty is essential to support model calibration, validation and diagnostic evaluation, and to prioritize efforts for uncertainty reduction. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) provides the theoretical framework and the numerical tools to gain this understanding. However, in traditional applications of GSA, model outputs are an aggregation of the full set of simulated variables. This aggregation of propagated uncertainties prior to GSA may lead to a significant loss of information and may cover up local behaviour that could be of great interest. In this work, we propose a time-varying version of a recently developed density-based GSA method, called PAWN, as a viable option to reduce this loss of information. We apply our approach to a medium-complexity hydrological model in order to address two questions: [1] Can we distinguish between the relative importance of parameter uncertainty versus data uncertainty in time? [2] Do these influences change in catchments with different characteristics? The results present the first quantitative investigation on the relative importance of parameter and data uncertainty across time. They also provide a demonstration of the value of time-varying GSA to investigate the propagation of uncertainty through numerical models and therefore guide additional data collection needs and model calibration/assessment.

  20. Primary Study of Power-Exchanging Transaction Model Among Price-Varied Power Plants in Practical Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    At present, electricity price to grid of domestic power plants is priced by the national administration based on the policy of "one power plant with one electricity price to grid," which is difficult to realize real bidding for access to grid in practice in a short term. This paper presents one kind of power-exchanging transaction model among price-varied power plants, which will be beneficial to price-varied power plants without any loss of profits of them and guarantee state-owned assets profits in minimum loss with no promotion of average price limit by power plants. Under ideal conditions, the computation results showed the sufficiency and necessity of power-exchanging transaction and maximum similarity with the requirements of optimized resources disposition in economics. The presented model is shown to be full of practicability and has been used in some part of power market.

  1. Stabilization strategies of a general nonlinear car-following model with varying reaction-time delay of the drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shukai; Yang, Lixing; Gao, Ziyou; Li, Keping

    2014-11-01

    In this paper, the stabilization strategies of a general nonlinear car-following model with reaction-time delay of the drivers are investigated. The reaction-time delay of the driver is time varying and bounded. By using the Lyapunov stability theory, the sufficient condition for the existence of the state feedback control strategy for the stability of the car-following model is given in the form of linear matrix inequality, under which the traffic jam can be well suppressed with respect to the varying reaction-time delay. Moreover, by considering the external disturbance for the running cars, the robust state feedback control strategy is designed, which ensures robust stability and a smaller prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level for the traffic flow. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  2. Wide band modeling of large power transformer windings for very fast transient overvoltage (VFTO) analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    There are some difficulties in using multi-transmission-line (MTL) model for wide band modeling of whole windings of the large power transformer. In this paper, the normalized MTL model is firstly de- rived, with which not only the difficulty of modeling windings with different turn-lengths using MTL can be solved, but also the model can be extended to the modeling of the multi-winding transformer. Secondly, both MTL model and the lumped circuit model on turn basis are mathematically compared in validation of the frequency range and it is pointed out that the lumped circuit model on turn basis is generally valid below 2.5 MHz for EHV and UHV power transformers. Finally, based on the MTL equations, a novel lumped circuit model is derived and it is shown that the valid frequency range of the new circuit is extended to about 4 MHz for modeling large EHV and UHV power transformer windings.

  3. Effects of ionic strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solon, Kimberly; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi

    2015-01-01

    ) and ion pairing on modelling of anaerobic digestion processes in such plant-wide models of wastewater treatment. Using the BSM2 as a case study with a number of model variants and cationic load scenarios, this paper presents the effects of an improved physico-chemical description on model predictions....... The paper describes: 1) how the anaerobic digester performance is affected by physico-chemical corrections; 2) the effect on pH and the anaerobic digestion products (CO2, CH4 and H2); and, 3) how these variations are propagated from the sludge treatment to the water line. Results at high ionic strength......Plant-wide models of wastewater treatment (such as the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 or BSM2) are gaining popularity for use in holistic virtual studies of treatment plant control and operations. The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections...

  4. Current and future constraints on Bekenstein-type models for varying couplings

    CERN Document Server

    Leite, A C O

    2016-01-01

    Astrophysical tests of the stability of dimensionless fundamental couplings, such as the fine-structure constant $\\alpha$ and the proton-to-electron mass ratio $\\mu$, are an optimal probe of new physics. There is a growing interest in these tests, following indications of possible spacetime variations at the few parts per million level. Here we make use of the latest astrophysical measurements, combined with background cosmological observations, to obtain improved constraints on Bekenstein-type models for the evolution of both couplings. These are arguably the simplest models allowing for $\\alpha$ and $\\mu$ variations, and are characterized by a single free dimensionless parameter, $\\zeta$, describing the coupling of the underlying dynamical degree of freedom to the electromagnetic sector. In the former case we find that this parameter is constrained to be $|\\zeta_\\alpha|<4.8\\times10^{-6}$ (improving previous constraints by a factor of 6), while in the latter (which we quantitatively compare to astrophysic...

  5. A semi-analytical, multizone model of droplet combustion with varying properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisti, John; DesJardin, Paul E.

    2013-08-01

    A multizone droplet burn model is developed to account for changes in the thermal and transport properties as a function of droplet radius. The formulation is semi-analytical - allowing for accurate and computationally efficient estimates of flame structure and burn rates. Zonal thermal and transport properties are computed using the Cantera software, pre-tabulated for rapid evaluation during run-time. Model predictions are compared to experimental measurements of burning n-heptane, ethanol and methanol droplets. An adaptive zone refinement algorithm is developed that minimizes the number of zones required to provide accurate estimates of burn time without excess zones. A sensitivity study of burn rate and flame stand-off with far-field oxygen concentration is conducted with comparisons to experimental data. Overall agreement to data is encouraging with errors typically less than 20% for predictions of burn rates, stand-off ratio and flame temperature for the fuels considered.

  6. In vitro salt release from model cheeses varying in texture and aroma

    OpenAIRE

    Syarifuddin, Adiansyah, T. Thomas-Danguin, C.Septier, E. Semon and C. Salles

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Health authorities recommend a reduction in salt (NaCl) and fat contents in food. Reducing such components without affecting food acceptability is a major challenge because of their multi functional properties. A strategy to compensate for salt reduction sensorially is to improve in-mouth salt release. We performed a study to evaluate salt release in cheese-like products in conditions that mimic food oral processing. Model cheeses were prepared according to a full-factorial desig...

  7. A Time Varying Strong Coupling Constant as a Model of Inflationary Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Chamoun, N; Vucetich, H

    2000-01-01

    We consider a scenario where the strong coupling constant was changing in the early universe. We attribute this change to a variation in the colour charge within a Bekenstein-like model. Allowing for a large value for the vacuum gluon condensate $\\sim 10^{22}GeV^4$, we could generate inflation with the required properties to solve the fluctuation and other standard cosmology problems. A possible approach to end the inflation is suggested.

  8. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice....... The results show that the long memory type behaviour of the sample autocorrelation functions of the absolute returns can also be explained by deterministic changes in the unconditional variance....

  9. Particle-in-cell modeling for MJ scale dense plasma focus with varied anode shape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Link, A., E-mail: link6@llnl.gov; Halvorson, C., E-mail: link6@llnl.gov; Schmidt, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Hagen, E. C. [National Security Technologies, Las Vegas, NV 89030 (United States); Rose, D. V.; Welch, D. R. [Voss Scientific LLC, Albuquerque NM 87108 (United States)

    2014-12-15

    Megajoule scale dense plasma focus (DPF) Z-pinches with deuterium gas fill are compact devices capable of producing 10{sup 12} neutrons per shot but past predictive models of large-scale DPF have not included kinetic effects such as ion beam formation or anomalous resistivity. We report on progress of developing a predictive DPF model by extending our 2D axisymmetric collisional kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations from the 4 kJ, 200 kA LLNL DPF to 1 MJ, 2 MA Gemini DPF using the PIC code LSP. These new simulations incorporate electrodes, an external pulsed-power driver circuit, and model the plasma from insulator lift-off through the pinch phase. To accommodate the vast range of relevant spatial and temporal scales involved in the Gemini DPF within the available computational resources, the simulations were performed using a new hybrid fluid-to-kinetic model. This new approach allows single simulations to begin in an electron/ion fluid mode from insulator lift-off through the 5-6 μs run-down of the 50+ cm anode, then transition to a fully kinetic PIC description during the run-in phase, when the current sheath is 2-3 mm from the central axis of the anode. Simulations are advanced through the final pinch phase using an adaptive variable time-step to capture the fs and sub-mm scales of the kinetic instabilities involved in the ion beam formation and neutron production. Validation assessments are being performed using a variety of different anode shapes, comparing against experimental measurements of neutron yield, neutron anisotropy and ion beam production.

  10. Numerical modeling of sandwich panel response to ballistic loading - energy balance for varying impactor geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2007-01-01

    thickness but significantly smaller than panel length dimensions. Experimental data for the total loss in impactor kinetic energy and momentum and estimated damage energy are described. For a selection of impactor tip shapes, the numerical model is used to evaluate different simplified force histories...... between the impactor and the panel during penetration. The force histories are selected from a primary criterion of conservation of linear momentum in the impactor-panel system, and evaluated according to agreement with the total measured energy balance....

  11. The Transferability of Regional Climate Models to Non-native Domains at Varying Time- scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothavala, Z.; Jones, C.; Rockel, B.; Paquin, D.; Roads, J. O.; Zadra, A.

    2008-05-01

    Five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were implemented over seven different regions of the globe with the objective of assessing their transferability to different climate regimes. That is, the ability of RCMs to simulate the variability of continental scale climates over different regions of the world with minimal parameter changes. To fully assess the ability of the RCMs to represent the observed variability, field observations collected as part of the Coordinated Enhanced Observation Period (CEOP) program over the same period, were used as a baseline. To gauge the transferability to other continents, we have evaluated their performance separately against CEOP observations taken from coastal, continental, polar and sub-tropical and equatorial sites. The exercise was conducted at the annual, seasonal and diurnal time-scales. We present time-series, frequency distributions, bias estimates and mean diurnal cycle results for these stations, highlighting geographic areas and the time-frames when the RCMs perform well or where they diverge. Most regional climate models simulated the annual cycle of surface temperature close to the observations over mid-latitude regions of Europe and North America. The largest deviations were identified at high altitude sites, Arctic regions, and in the tropics for different reasons. The simulations diverged from the observations at finer time-scales. The analysis yields an insight about how the models simulate the timing of convection or frontal progression in different regions of the world. Where possible we use extra CEOP observations to determine the cause of a given model deviation and make recommendations for improvements for the RCM concerned.

  12. Locally Rotationally Symmetric Bianchi Type-I Model with Time Varying (A) Term

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    R.K.Tiwari; Navin Kumar Jha

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-Ⅰ cosmological model for stiff matter and a vacuum solution with a cosmological term proportional to R~(-m) (R is the scale factor and m is a positive constant).The cosmological term decreases with time.We obtain that for both the cases the present universe is accelerating with a large fraction of cosmological density in the form of a cosmological term.

  13. Investigating the barrier function of skin lipid models with varying compositions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groen, Daniël; Poole, Dana S; Gooris, Gert S; Bouwstra, Joke A

    2011-10-01

    The lipids in the uppermost layer of the skin, the stratum corneum (SC), play an important role in the barrier function. The main lipid classes in stratum corneum are ceramides, cholesterol, and free fatty acids. In previous publications, a lipid model was presented, referred to as the stratum corneum substitute (SCS), that closely mimics the SC lipid organization and SC barrier function. In the present study, we use the SCS to study the effect of changes in lipid organization on the lipid barrier function using benzoic acid as permeation compound. First, in the SCS, we increased the level of one of the three major lipid classes keeping the ratio between the other lipid classes constant. An increased cholesterol level resulted in an increase in phase-separated cholesterol and a reduction in the permeability. An increase in ceramide or free fatty acid level resulted in the formation of additional phases, but had no significant influence on the permeability. We also examined models that mimic selected changes in lipid composition reported for dry or diseased skin. The SCS that mimics the composition in recessive X-linked ichthyosis skin displayed a twofold increase in permeability. This increase is possibly related to the formation of an additional, less ordered phase in this model. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Interictal spike frequency varies with ovarian cycle stage in a rat model of epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amour, James; Magagna-Poveda, Alejandra; Moretto, Jillian; Friedman, Daniel; LaFrancois, John J; Pearce, Patrice; Fenton, Andre A; MacLusky, Neil J; Scharfman, Helen E

    2015-07-01

    In catamenial epilepsy, seizures exhibit a cyclic pattern that parallels the menstrual cycle. Many studies suggest that catamenial seizures are caused by fluctuations in gonadal hormones during the menstrual cycle, but this has been difficult to study in rodent models of epilepsy because the ovarian cycle in rodents, called the estrous cycle, is disrupted by severe seizures. Thus, when epilepsy is severe, estrous cycles become irregular or stop. Therefore, we modified kainic acid (KA)- and pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus (SE) models of epilepsy so that seizures were rare for the first months after SE, and conducted video-EEG during this time. The results showed that interictal spikes (IIS) occurred intermittently. All rats with regular 4-day estrous cycles had IIS that waxed and waned with the estrous cycle. The association between the estrous cycle and IIS was strong: if the estrous cycles became irregular transiently, IIS frequency also became irregular, and when the estrous cycle resumed its 4-day pattern, IIS frequency did also. Furthermore, when rats were ovariectomized, or males were recorded, IIS frequency did not show a 4-day pattern. Systemic administration of an estrogen receptor antagonist stopped the estrous cycle transiently, accompanied by transient irregularity of the IIS pattern. Eventually all animals developed severe, frequent seizures and at that time both the estrous cycle and the IIS became irregular. We conclude that the estrous cycle entrains IIS in the modified KA and pilocarpine SE models of epilepsy. The data suggest that the ovarian cycle influences more aspects of epilepsy than seizure susceptibility.

  15. Performance Optimizing Multi-Objective Adaptive Control with Time-Varying Model Reference Modification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan T.; Hashemi, Kelley E.; Yucelen, Tansel; Arabi, Ehsan

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new adaptive control approach that involves a performance optimization objective. The problem is cast as a multi-objective optimal control. The control synthesis involves the design of a performance optimizing controller from a subset of control inputs. The effect of the performance optimizing controller is to introduce an uncertainty into the system that can degrade tracking of the reference model. An adaptive controller from the remaining control inputs is designed to reduce the effect of the uncertainty while maintaining a notion of performance optimization in the adaptive control system.

  16. Anisotropic Bianchi Type-Ⅰ Model with a Varying A Term

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    R.K.Tiwari; Divya Singh

    2012-01-01

    Einstein field equations with variable gravitational and cosmological constants are considered in the presence of a perfect fluid for a Bianchi type-I universe by assuming that the cosmological term is proportional to the Hubble parameter..The variation law for vacuum density was recently proposed by Schützhold on the basis of quantum field estimation in a curved expanding background.The cosmological term tends asymptotically to a genuine cosmological constant and the model tends to a de Sitter universe.We obtain that the present universe is accelerating with a large fraction of cosmological density in the form of a cosmological term.

  17. Models of Quality-Adjusted Life Years when Health varies over Time: Survey and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2006-01-01

    time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard of the health state index, re-examining the role...... of the constant-proportional trade-off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken...

  18. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, reexamining the role of the constantproportional tradeoff condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination...

  19. Spreading and generalized propagating speeds of discrete KPP models in time varying environments

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenxian SHEN

    2009-01-01

    The current paper deals with spatial spreading and front propagating dynamics for spatially discrete KPP (Kolmogorov, Petrovsky and Paskunov) models in time recurrent environments, which include time periodic and almost periodic environments as special cases. The notions of spreading speed interval, generalized propagating speed interval, and traveling wave solutions are first introduced, which are proper modifications of those introduced for spatially continuous KPP models in time almost periodic environments. Among others, it is then shown that the spreading speed interval in a given direction is the minimal generalized propagating speed interval in that direction. Some important upper and lower bounds for the spreading and generalized propagating speed intervals are provided. When the environment is unique ergodic and the so called linear determinacy condition is satisfied, it is shown that the spreading speed interval in any direction is a singleton (called the spreading speed), which equals the classical spreading speed if the environment is actually periodic. Moreover, in such a case, a variational principle for the spreading speed is established and it is shown that there is a front of speed c in a given direction if and only if c is greater than or equal to the spreading speed in that direction.

  20. Lyapunov Functions for a Class of Discrete SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Varying Population Sizes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamical behaviors of a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and varying population sizes. The model is required to possess different death rates for the susceptible, infectious, recovered, and constant recruitment into the susceptible class, infectious class, and recovered class, respectively. By using the inductive method, the positivity and boundedness of all solutions are obtained. Furthermore, by constructing new discrete type Lyapunov functions, the sufficient and necessary conditions on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are established.

  1. Analysis of an Age Structured SEIRS Epidemic Model with Varying Total Population Size and Vaccination

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue-Zhi Li; Geni Gupur; Guang-Tian Zhu

    2004-01-01

    This article focuses on the study of an age structured SEIRS epidemic model with a vaccination program when the total population size is not kept at constant. We first give the explicit expression of the reproduction number R((ψ),(λ))in the presence of vaccine((λ))is the exponent of growth of total population), and show that the infection-free steady state is linearly stable if R ((ψ),(λ))1, then we apply the theoretical results to vaccination policies to determine the optimal age or ages at which an individual should be vaccinated. It is shown that the optimal strategy can be either one-or two-age strategies.

  2. Modelling optical scattering artefacts for varying pathlength in a gel dosimeter phantom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosi, Stephen G; Brown, Saxby; Sarabipour, Sarvenaz; De Deene, Yves; Baldock, Clive

    2009-01-21

    A gelatin phantom containing an optically scattering funnel-shaped region of elevated optical density (OD) was used to examine light-scattering-induced artefacts in a cone-beam optical CT scanner used for gel dosimetry. To simulate polymer gel dosimeters, the opacity was introduced by adding a colloidal scatterer to the gelatin. Scatter results in an underestimate of OD (hence dose). In line profiles of OD taken from 3D reconstructions of the funnel, those profiles with a long pathlength through high OD regions exhibited a 'dishing' (or 'cupping') artefact, while those of short pathlength exhibited the opposite effect-'doming'. These phenomena are accounted for by a model that includes the effect of stray, scattered light.

  3. Modelling optical scattering artefacts for varying pathlength in a gel dosimeter phantom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosi, Stephen G [Department of Radiation Oncology, Prince of Wales Hospital, Randwick, NSW 2031 (Australia); Brown, Saxby; Sarabipour, Sarvenaz; Baldock, Clive [Institute of Medical Physics, School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); De Deene, Yves [Division of Radiotherapy, University Hospital of Ghent, de Pintelaan 185, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)], E-mail: s.bosi@physics.usyd.edu.au

    2009-01-21

    A gelatin phantom containing an optically scattering funnel-shaped region of elevated optical density (OD) was used to examine light-scattering-induced artefacts in a cone-beam optical CT scanner used for gel dosimetry. To simulate polymer gel dosimeters, the opacity was introduced by adding a colloidal scatterer to the gelatin. Scatter results in an underestimate of OD (hence dose). In line profiles of OD taken from 3D reconstructions of the funnel, those profiles with a long pathlength through high OD regions exhibited a 'dishing' (or 'cupping') artefact, while those of short pathlength exhibited the opposite effect-'doming'. These phenomena are accounted for by a model that includes the effect of stray, scattered light.

  4. Entropy evolution of field with a time-varying frequency in the Jaynes-Cummings model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiu Changdong

    2012-01-01

    Following Jaynes-Cummings model, the evolution of the field entropy in the system of a two-level atom inter- acting with the single mode coherent field is investigated under rotating-wave approximation. The typical case -- the field frequency variance with time in the form of sine ω = ω0 + usin(wt) has been considered. The influences of the amplitude and angle frequency of the field frequency variance on entropy evolution of the field are discussed by numerical calculations. Calculation results indicate that the field frequency variance influences violently the behavior of field entropy evolution; the larger the amplitude of the field frequency variance is, the stronger the influence of the field frequency variance on the time evolution of field entropy is.

  5. Varying assay geometry to emulate connective tissue planes in an in vitro model of acupuncture needling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julias, Margaret; Buettner, Helen M; Shreiber, David I

    2011-02-01

    During traditional acupuncture, fine needles are inserted subcutaneously and rotated, which causes loose fascial tissue to wind around the needle. This coupling is stronger at acupuncture points, which tend to fall above intermuscular fascial planes, than control points, which lay above skeletal muscle. These different anatomical constraints may affect the mechanical coupling. Fascia at acupuncture points is bounded on two sides by skeletal muscle, but at control points is essentially unbounded. These differences were approximated in simple in vitro models. To emulate the narrower boundary within the intermuscular plane, type I collagen was cast in circular gels of different radii. To model the channel-like nature of these planes, collagen was cast in elliptical gels with major and minor axes matching the large and small circular gels, respectively, and in planar gels constrained on two sides. Acupuncture needles were inserted into the gels and rotated via a computer-controlled motor while capturing the evolution of fiber alignment under cross-polarization. Small circular gels aligned faster, but failed earlier than large circular gels. Rotation in elliptical and planar gels generated more alignment-per-revolution than circular gels. Planar gels were particularly resistant to failure. Fiber alignment in circular gels was isotropic, but was stronger in the direction of the minor axis in elliptical and planar gels. In fibroblast-populated gels, cells followed the alignment of the collagen fibers, and also became denser in regions of stronger alignment. These results suggest that the anatomy at acupuncture points provides unique boundaries that accentuate the mechanical response to needle manipulation.

  6. A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Wiley

    Full Text Available We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.

  7. A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, James A; Martin, John Levi; Herschkorn, Stephen J; Bond, Jason

    2015-01-01

    We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model) but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales) are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.

  8. A mathematical model for the movement of food bolus of varying viscosities through the esophagus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Dharmendra

    2011-09-01

    This mathematical model is designed to study the influence of viscosity on swallowing of food bolus through the esophagus. Food bolus is considered as viscous fluid with variable viscosity. Geometry of esophagus is assumed as finite length channel and flow is induced by peristaltic wave along the length of channel walls. The expressions for axial velocity, transverse velocity, pressure gradient, volume flow rate and stream function are obtained under the assumptions of long wavelength and low Reynolds number. The impacts of viscosity parameter on pressure distribution, local wall shear stress, mechanical efficiency and trapping are numerically discussed with the help of computational results. On the basis of presented study, it is revealed that swallowing of low viscous fluids through esophagus requires less effort in comparison to fluids of higher viscosity. This result is similar to the experimental result obtained by Raut et al. [1], Dodds [2] and Ren et al. [3]. It is further concluded that the pumping efficiency increases while size of trapped bolus reduces when viscosity of fluid is high.

  9. Channel responses to varying sediment input: A flume experiment modeled after Redwood Creek, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madej, M.A.; Sutherland, D.G.; Lisle, T.E.; Pryor, B.

    2009-01-01

    At the reach scale, a channel adjusts to sediment supply and flow through mutual interactions among channel form, bed particle size, and flow dynamics that govern river bed mobility. Sediment can impair the beneficial uses of a river, but the timescales for studying recovery following high sediment loading in the field setting make flume experiments appealing. We use a flume experiment, coupled with field measurements in a gravel-bed river, to explore sediment transport, storage, and mobility relations under various sediment supply conditions. Our flume experiment modeled adjustments of channel morphology, slope, and armoring in a gravel-bed channel. Under moderate sediment increases, channel bed elevation increased and sediment output increased, but channel planform remained similar to pre-feed conditions. During the following degradational cycle, most of the excess sediment was evacuated from the flume and the bed became armored. Under high sediment feed, channel bed elevation increased, the bed became smoother, mid-channel bars and bedload sheets formed, and water surface slope increased. Concurrently, output increased and became more poorly sorted. During the last degradational cycle, the channel became armored and channel incision ceased before all excess sediment was removed. Selective transport of finer material was evident throughout the aggradational cycles and became more pronounced during degradational cycles as the bed became armored. Our flume results of changes in bed elevation, sediment storage, channel morphology, and bed texture parallel those from field surveys of Redwood Creek, northern California, which has exhibited channel bed degradation for 30??years following a large aggradation event in the 1970s. The flume experiment suggested that channel recovery in terms of reestablishing a specific morphology may not occur, but the channel may return to a state of balancing sediment supply and transport capacity.

  10. Modeling the influence of varying hydraulic conditions on aerobic respiration and denitrification in the hyporheic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauth, N.; Schmidt, C.; Fleckenstein, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Exchange of water and solutes across the stream-sediment interface is an important control for biogeochemical transformations in the hyporheic zone (HZ) with measurable impacts on nutrient cycling and solute attenuation in fluvial systems. Here we investigate the interplay between turbulent stream flow and HZ flow under various hydraulic conditions applied to two cases: a) three-dimensional generic pool-riffle sequences with different morphological properties, and b) a real mid-stream gravel-bar. Stream flow is simulated by the open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software OpenFOAM which provides the hydraulic head distribution at the streambed. It is sequentially coupled to the top of the groundwater model code MIN3P, simulating flow, solute transport, aerobic respiration (AR) and denitrification (DN) in the HZ. Flow in the HZ is directly influenced by the hydraulic head distribution at the streambed surface and the ambient groundwater flow. Three reactive transport scenarios are considered: 1) stream water as the primary source of dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrate (NO3) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), 2) upwelling groundwater as an additionally source of NO3, and 3) upwelling groundwater as an additional source of DO in various concentrations. Results show an increase in hyporheic exchange flow for increasing stream discharge with a concurrent decrease in residence time. The fraction of circulating stream water through the HZ is in the range of 1x10-5 to 1x10-6 per unit stream length, decreasing with increasing discharge. Ambient groundwater flow in both the up- and downwelling direction diminishes significantly the hyporheic exchange flow and extent. Biogeochemical processes in the HZ are strongly controlled by ambient groundwater flow, even more so than by changes in stream discharge. AR and DN efficiencies of the HZ are significantly reduced by up- and downwelling groundwater and are positively correlated with median residence times. AR occurs in

  11. Modelling plastic deformation of metals over a wide range of strain rates using irreversible thermodynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, M.; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, P.E.J.; Bouaziz, O.; Van der Zwaag, S.

    2009-01-01

    Based on the theory of irreversible thermodynamics, the present work proposes a dislocation-based model to describe the plastic deformation of FCC metals over wide ranges of strain rates. The stress-strain behaviour and the evolution of the average dislocation density are derived. It is found that t

  12. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample siz...

  13. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  14. Status of GPCR modeling and docking as reflected by community-wide GPCR Dock 2010 assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kufareva, I.; Rueda, M.; Katritch, V.; Stevens, R.C.; Abagyan, R.; Vroling, B.; Sanders, M.P.A.

    2011-01-01

    The community-wide GPCR Dock assessment is conducted to evaluate the status of molecular modeling and ligand docking for human G protein-coupled receptors. The present round of the assessment was based on the recent structures of dopamine D3 and CXCR4 chemokine receptors bound to small molecule

  15. Modelling of coupled heat and electric field distribution during ohmic heating of solid foods with varying sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Bøknæs, Niels; Nielsen, P.L.

    Heat treatment is an important process in the manufacturing of a wide range of solid foods. When food products of different sizes (e.g. cooking of shrimps) are processed with the conventional thermal processes, the products are heated unevenly where the small bodies are overcooked and the large...... developed. The mathematical model has been formulated from mechanistic understanding of the process. The resulting coupled model equations were solved using the Finite Element Method (COMSOL Multiphysics® version 4.3b). Experiments were carried out using a newly developed laboratory-scale ohmic heater where...

  16. Communication Modeling for Wide-Area Relay Protection Based on IEC 61850

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhang

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Wide-area communication system is the information exchange supporting platform for wide-area relay protection (WARP, which includes not only visible physical communication equipment and links, but also communication protocols and other upper communication services. WARP communication had become an important issue in WARP practical applications, but it has not been described in IEC 61850 standard. To solve this issue, this paper firstly presents the general steps of WARP modeling according to the layer upon layer modeling methods of the IEC 61850 standard, then proposes a tree structure model of master station and affiliate stations with information interaction model between master station and affiliate stations following IEC 61850 by taking a 220kV smart substation and WARP algorithm based on fault voltage distribution for example, finally establishes a communication model of WARP that includes client/server transfer model, electrical value transmission model and logical status variables transmission model. The fundamental purpose of constructing the communication model is to implement the interoperability between WARP−IED (WARP−Intelligent Electronic Devices and other IEDs in a smart substation.

  17. Development of Industry-Wide IS Integration Model in the Agri-Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    his paper presents a model explaining industrywide information systems (IS) integration in the agri-industry.Using a theoretical frame of value confi guration analysis and IS integration extent we study 15 organizations. We find that product sensitivity, continuous production, value chain captains......, and value creation logic explain the industry-wide IS integration. Incompatible value creation logic among stakeholders and the lack of presence of “value chain captains” – powerful actors dominating the entire industry - has and negative impact on industry-wide integration. On the other hand, product...... sensitivity and continuous production process led to higher levels of integration....

  18. Time-Varying Hydraulic Gradient Model of Paste-Like Tailings in Long-Distance Pipeline Transportation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Paste-like tailings slurry (PTLS is always simplified as a Bingham plastic fluid, leading to excessive computational errors in the calculation of the hydraulic gradient. In the case of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation, to explore a high-precision and reliable hydraulic gradient formula, the rheological behavior of paste-like tailings slurry was analyzed, a time-varying hydraulic gradient model was constructed, and a series of laboratory shear tests were conducted. The results indicate that the PTLS shows noticeable shear-thinning characteristics in constant shear tests; the calculated hydraulic gradient declined by about 56%, from 4.44 MPa·km−1 to 1.95 MPa·km−1 within 253 s, and remained constant for the next four hours during the pipeline transportation. Comparing with the balance hydraulic gradient obtained in a semi-industrial loop test, the computational errors of those calculated by using the time-varying hydraulic gradient model, Jinchuan formula, and Shanxi formula are 15%, 78%, and 130%, respectively. Therefore, our model is a feasible and high-precision solution for the calculation of the hydraulic gradient of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation.

  19. Estimating the Time-Varying Joint Effects of Obesity and Smoking on All-Cause Mortality Using Marginal Structural Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banack, Hailey R; Kaufman, Jay S

    2016-01-15

    Obesity and smoking are independently associated with a higher mortality risk, but previous studies have reported conflicting results about the relationship between these 2 time-varying exposures. Using prospective longitudinal data (1987-2007) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, our objective in the present study was to estimate the joint effects of obesity and smoking on all-cause mortality and investigate whether there were additive or multiplicative interactions. We fit a joint marginal structural Poisson model to account for time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure to obesity and smoking. The incidence rate ratios from the joint model were 2.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.79, 2.24) for the effect of smoking on mortality among nonobese persons, 1.31 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.51) for the effect of obesity on mortality among nonsmokers, and 1.97 (95% CI: 1.73, 2.22) for the joint effect of smoking and obesity on mortality. The negative product term from the exponential model revealed a submultiplicative interaction between obesity and smoking (β = -0.28, 95% CI: -0.45, -0.11; P obesity.

  20. Tutorial: Survival Estimation for Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Coe?cients Using SAS and R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laine Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Survival estimates are an essential compliment to multivariable regression models for time-to-event data, both for prediction and illustration of covariate effects. They are easily obtained under the Cox proportional-hazards model. In populations defined by an initial, acute event, like myocardial infarction, or in studies with long-term followup, the proportional-hazards assumption of constant hazard ratios is frequently violated. One alternative is to fit an interaction between covariates and a prespecified function of time, implemented as a time-dependent covariate. This effectively creates a time-varying coefficient that is easily estimated in software such as SAS and R. However, the usual programming statements for survival estimation are not directly applicable. Unique data manipulation and syntax is required, but is not well documented for either software. This paper offers a tutorial in survival estimation for the time-varying coefficient model, implemented in SAS and R. We provide a macro coxtvc to facilitate estimation in SAS where the current functionality is more limited. The macro is validated in simulated data and illustrated in an application.

  1. GOCO05c: A New Combined Gravity Field Model Based on Full Normal Equations and Regionally Varying Weighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fecher, T.; Pail, R.; Gruber, T.

    2017-05-01

    GOCO05c is a gravity field model computed as a combined solution of a satellite-only model and a global data set of gravity anomalies. It is resolved up to degree and order 720. It is the first model applying regionally varying weighting. Since this causes strong correlations among all gravity field parameters, the resulting full normal equation system with a size of 2 TB had to be solved rigorously by applying high-performance computing. GOCO05c is the first combined gravity field model independent of EGM2008 that contains GOCE data of the whole mission period. The performance of GOCO05c is externally validated by GNSS-levelling comparisons, orbit tests, and computation of the mean dynamic topography, achieving at least the quality of existing high-resolution models. Results show that the additional GOCE information is highly beneficial in insufficiently observed areas, and that due to the weighting scheme of individual data the spectral and spatial consistency of the model is significantly improved. Due to usage of fill-in data in specific regions, the model cannot be used for physical interpretations in these regions.

  2. Density perturbations in f (R ,ϕ ) gravity with an application to the varying-power-law model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, Fayçal

    2017-09-01

    Density perturbations in the cosmic microwave background within general f (R ,ϕ ) models of gravity are investigated. The general dynamical equations for the tensor and scalar modes in any f (R ,ϕ )-gravity model are derived. An application of the equations to the varying-power-law modified gravity toy model is then made. Formulas and numerical values for the tensor-to-scalar ratio, the scalar tilt, and the tensor tilt are all obtained within this specific model. While the model cannot provide a theoretical reason for the value of the energy scale at which inflation should occur, it is found, based on the latest observations of the density perturbations in the sky, that the model requires inflation to occur at an energy scale less than the grand unified theory scale, namely, ˜1014 GeV . The different energy intervals examined here show that the density perturbations recently obtained from observations are recovered naturally, with very high precision, and without fine tuning the model's parameters.

  3. A plant-wide energy model for wastewater treatment plants: application to anaerobic membrane bioreactor technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretel, R; Robles, A; Ruano, M V; Seco, A; Ferrer, J

    2016-09-01

    The aim of this study is to propose a detailed and comprehensive plant-wide model for assessing the energy demand of different wastewater treatment systems (beyond the traditional activated sludge) in both steady- and unsteady-state conditions. The proposed model makes it possible to calculate power and heat requirements (W and Q, respectively), and to recover both power and heat from methane and hydrogen capture. In order to account for the effect of biological processes on heat requirements, the model has been coupled to the extended version of the BNRM2 plant-wide mathematical model, which is implemented in DESSAS simulation software. Two case studies have been evaluated to assess the model's performance: (1) modelling the energy demand of two urban wastewater treatment plants based on conventional activated sludge and submerged anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) technologies in steady-state conditions and (2) modelling the dynamics of reactor temperature and heat requirements in an AnMBR plant in unsteady-state conditions. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used to assess the energy performance of different wastewater treatment processes and would thus be useful, for example, WWTP design or upgrading or the development of new control strategies for energy savings.

  4. Integrated Response of Grassland Biomass Along Co-varying Gradients of Climate and Grazing Management Using an Eco-hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Tague, N.; Kruger, C. E.; Johnson, K.; Adam, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Grasses in rangeland ecosystems cover a large portion of the contiguous United States and are used to support the production of livestock. These grasslands experience a wide range of precipitation and temperature regimes, as well as management activities like grazing. Assessing the coupled response of biomass to both climatic change and human activities is important to decision makers to ensure the sustainable management of their lands. The objective of this study is to examine the sensitivity of biomass under co-varying conditions of climate and grazing management. For this, we used the Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys), a physically-based model that simulates coupled water and biogeochemical processes. We selected representative grassland sites using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system and information on major grass species. Historical data on precipitation, temperature, and grazing patterns (intensity, frequency, duration) were incrementally perturbed to simulate climatic change and possible changes in management. To visualize this multi-dimensional parameter space, we created surface response plots of varying climate and grazing factors for the mean and variance of both aboveground and belowground biomass, as well as the ratio between the two. Mean biomass generally increased with warmer temperatures and decreased with more intense grazing. The sensitivity of biomass (i.e. variance) increased with more extreme perturbations in climate and intense types of grazing management. However, co-varying climate conditions with either grazing intensity, frequency, or duration revealed different biomass responses and tradeoffs. For example, some changes in grazing duration could be reversed by changes in climate. Effects of high intensity grazing could be buffered depending on the timing of grazing (i.e. start/end date). Using simple perturbations with process-based modeling provides useful information for land managers for future planning.

  5. Lithium-ion battery dynamic model for wide range of operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Ana-Irina; Stroe, Daniel-Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef

    2017-01-01

    In order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery and to determine their suitability for various applications, battery models are needed. An equivalent electrical circuit model is the most common way of representing the behavior of a Li-ion battery. There are different...... characterization tests performed for a wide range of operating conditions (temperature, load current and state-ofcharge) on a commercial available 13Ah high-power lithium titanate oxide battery cell. The obtained results were used to parametrize the proposed dynamic model of the battery cell. To assess...

  6. A new nonlinear dynamic model of the rotor-bearing system considering preload and varying contact angle of the bearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuening; Han, Qinkai; Peng, Zhike; Chu, Fulei

    2015-05-01

    A great deal of research work has been done on the dynamic behaviors of the rotor-bearing system. However, the important effects of load and variation of contact angle on the bearing performance have not been focused on sufficiently. In this paper, a five-degree-of-freedom load distribution model is set up considering the bearing preload and the loads due to the rotor imbalance. Utilizing this model, the variation of the bearing contact angle is investigated thoroughly. The comparisons of the obtained contact angle against the results from literature validate that the proposed load distribution model is effective. With this model, the static ball deformations are obtained considering variation of the contact angle. Through resolving the dynamic displacements of the rotor, the dynamic ball deformations could also be obtained. Then the total restoring forces and moments of the bearings could be formulated. By introducing these nonlinear forces and moments into the rotating system, a new dynamic model considering the preload and the variation of contact angle is set up. The present analyses indicate that the bearing contact angle will be changed remarkably with the effect of bearing load. The deflection vibration of the rotor-bearing system will be underestimated without considering the varying contact angle. With the effect of varying contact angle, the ball passage frequency and its combinations with the shaft rotating frequency become more noticeable. The main resonance regions for the rotor-bearing system shift to the lower speed ranges when the variation of contact angle is taken into account.

  7. Investigating the Effects of Stress Interaction Using a Cellular-automaton Based Model in Fault Networks of Varying Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetherington, A. P.; Steacy, S.; McCloskey, J.

    2007-12-01

    Seismicity spatial and temporal patterns are strongly influenced by stress interaction between faults. However the effects of such interaction on earthquake statistics is not yet well understood. Computer models provide accurate, large and complete datasets to investigate this issue and also have the benefit of allowing direct comparison of seismicity behavior in time and space in networks, with and without fault interaction. We investigate the effect of such interaction on modeled real-world fault networks of varying complexity using a cellular-automata based model. Each 3-D fault within the fault network is modeled by a discrete cellular automaton. The cell size is 1 km square which allows for a minimum earthquake size of approximately Mw=4. The cell strength is distributed fractally across each fault and all cells are loaded by a remote tectonic stressing rate. When the stress on a cell exceeds its strength, the cell fails and stress is transferred to its nearest neighbors which may in turn cause them to break allowing the earthquake to grow. These stress transfer rules allow realistic stress concentrations to develop at the boundary of the rupture. If the extent of the rupture exceeds a user defined minimum length, and if interaction between faults is allowed, a boundary element method is used to calculate stress transfer to neighboring faults. Here we present results from four simulated fault networks based on active faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, the Northern Anatolian Fault, Turkey, Southern California, and the Marlborough Fault System, South Island, New Zealand. These are chosen for their varying level of fault complexity and we examine both interacting and non-interacting models in terms of their b-value and recurrence intervals for each region. Results will be compared and discussed.

  8. Wide-aperture laser beam measurement using transmission diffuser: errors modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsak, Ivan S.

    2015-06-01

    Instrumental errors of measurement wide-aperture laser beam diameter were modeled to build measurement setup and justify its metrological characteristics. Modeled setup is based on CCD camera and transmission diffuser. This method is appropriate for precision measurement of large laser beam width from 10 mm up to 1000 mm. It is impossible to measure such beams with other methods based on slit, pinhole, knife edge or direct CCD camera measurement. The method is suitable for continuous and pulsed laser irradiation. However, transmission diffuser method has poor metrological justification required in field of wide aperture beam forming system verification. Considering the fact of non-availability of a standard of wide-aperture flat top beam modelling is preferred way to provide basic reference points for development measurement system. Modelling was conducted in MathCAD. Super-Lorentz distribution with shape parameter 6-12 was used as a model of the beam. Using theoretical evaluations there was found that the key parameters influencing on error are: relative beam size, spatial non-uniformity of the diffuser, lens distortion, physical vignetting, CCD spatial resolution and, effective camera ADC resolution. Errors were modeled for 90% of power beam diameter criteria. 12-order Super-Lorentz distribution was primary model, because it precisely meets experimental distribution at the output of test beam forming system, although other orders were also used. The analytic expressions were obtained analyzing the modelling results for each influencing data. Attainability of <1% error based on choice of parameters of expression was shown. The choice was based on parameters of commercially available components of the setup. The method can provide up to 0.1% error in case of using calibration procedures and multiple measurements.

  9. Numerical study on spatially varying bottom friction coefficient of a 2D tidal model with adjoint method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xianqing; Zhang, Jicai

    2006-10-01

    Based on the simulation of M2 tide in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data are assimilated into a 2D tidal model to study the spatially varying bottom friction coefficient (BFC) by using the adjoint method. In this study, the BFC at some grid points are selected as the independent BFC, while the BFC at other grid points can be obtained through linear interpolation with the independent BFC. Two strategies for selecting the independent BFC are discussed. In the first strategy, one independent BFC is uniformly selected from each 1°×1° area. In the second one, the independent BFC are selected based on the spatial distribution of water depth. Twin and practical experiments are carried out to compare the two strategies. In the twin experiments, the adjoint method has a strong ability of inverting the prescribed BFC distributions combined with the spatially varying BFC. In the practical experiments, reasonable simulation results can be obtained by optimizing the spatially varying independent BFC. In both twin and practical experiments, the simulation results with the second strategy are better than those with the first one. The BFC distribution obtained from the practical experiment indicates that the BFC in shallow water are larger than those in deep water in the Bohai Sea, the North Yellow Sea, the South Yellow Sea and the East China Sea individually. However, the BFC in the East China Sea are larger than those in the other areas perhaps because of the large difference of water depth or bottom roughness. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the model results are more sensitive to the independent BFC near the land.

  10. A methodology for determining interactions in probabilistic safety assessment models by varying one parameter at a time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgonovo, Emanuele

    2010-03-01

    In risk analysis problems, the decision-making process is supported by the utilization of quantitative models. Assessing the relevance of interactions is an essential information in the interpretation of model results. By such knowledge, analysts and decisionmakers are able to understand whether risk is apportioned by individual factor contributions or by their joint action. However, models are oftentimes large, requiring a high number of input parameters, and complex, with individual model runs being time consuming. Computational complexity leads analysts to utilize one-parameter-at-a-time sensitivity methods, which prevent one from assessing interactions. In this work, we illustrate a methodology to quantify interactions in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models by varying one parameter at a time. The method is based on a property of the functional ANOVA decomposition of a finite change that allows to exactly determine the relevance of factors when considered individually or together with their interactions with all other factors. A set of test cases illustrates the technique. We apply the methodology to the analysis of the core damage frequency of the large loss of coolant accident of a nuclear reactor. Numerical results reveal the nonadditive model structure, allow to quantify the relevance of interactions, and to identify the direction of change (increase or decrease in risk) implied by individual factor variations and by their cooperation.

  11. Modeling Water Flux at the Base of the Rooting Zone for Soils with Varying Glacial Parent Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, S.; Ellett, K. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Olyphant, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Soils of varying glacial parent materials in the Great Lakes Region (USA) are characterized by thin unsaturated zones and widespread use of agricultural pesticides and nutrients that affect shallow groundwater. To better our understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants, improved models of water fluxes through the vadose zones of various hydrogeologic settings are warranted. Furthermore, calibrated unsaturated zone models can be coupled with watershed models, providing a means for predicting the impact of varying climate scenarios on agriculture in the region. To address these issues, a network of monitoring sites was developed in Indiana that provides continuous measurements of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and soil matric potential to parameterize and calibrate models. Flux at the base of the root zone is simulated using two models of varying complexity: 1) the HYDRUS model, which numerically solves the Richards equation, and 2) the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, which assumes vertical flow under a unit gradient with infiltration and evapotranspiration treated as separate, sequential processes. Soil hydraulic parameters are determined based on laboratory data, a pedo-transfer function (ROSETTA), field measurements (Guelph permeameter), and parameter optimization. Groundwater elevation data are available at three of six sites to establish the base of the unsaturated zone model domain. Initial modeling focused on the groundwater recharge season (Nov-Feb) when PET is limited and much of the annual vertical flux occurs. HYDRUS results indicate that base of root zone fluxes at a site underlain by glacial ice-contact parent materials are 48% of recharge season precipitation (VWC RMSE=8.2%), while SWB results indicate that fluxes are 43% (VWC RMSE=3.7%). Due in part to variations in surface boundary conditions, more variable fluxes were obtained for a site underlain by alluvium with the SWB model (68

  12. GenoGAM: genome-wide generalized additive models for ChIP-Seq analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Georg; Engelhardt, Alexander; Schulz, Daniel; Schmid, Matthias; Tresch, Achim; Gagneur, Julien

    2017-08-01

    Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-Seq) is a widely used approach to study protein-DNA interactions. Often, the quantities of interest are the differential occupancies relative to controls, between genetic backgrounds, treatments, or combinations thereof. Current methods for differential occupancy of ChIP-Seq data rely however on binning or sliding window techniques, for which the choice of the window and bin sizes are subjective. Here, we present GenoGAM (Genome-wide Generalized Additive Model), which brings the well-established and flexible generalized additive models framework to genomic applications using a data parallelism strategy. We model ChIP-Seq read count frequencies as products of smooth functions along chromosomes. Smoothing parameters are objectively estimated from the data by cross-validation, eliminating ad hoc binning and windowing needed by current approaches. GenoGAM provides base-level and region-level significance testing for full factorial designs. Application to a ChIP-Seq dataset in yeast showed increased sensitivity over existing differential occupancy methods while controlling for type I error rate. By analyzing a set of DNA methylation data and illustrating an extension to a peak caller, we further demonstrate the potential of GenoGAM as a generic statistical modeling tool for genome-wide assays. Software is available from Bioconductor: https://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/GenoGAM.html . gagneur@in.tum.de. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online.

  13. Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V; Sánchez, Brisa N

    2016-03-15

    It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment-health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001-2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store-BMIz associations.

  14. Efficacy of skin wash on dermal absorption: an in vitro study on four model compounds of varying solubility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Bo

    2010-01-01

    that percutaneous penetration continues after end of exposure due to the reservoir present in the skin. However, penetration rate will decrease significantly, and it is evident that simple hand-wash after end of exposure not only reduces the amount of residue present in the upper skin compartment but also......PURPOSE: Following dermal exposure to chemicals causing systemic toxicity, the general advice to avoid further systemic exposure is to wash the skin. The present study uses four model compounds (benzoic acid, glyphosat, caffeine, malathion) with varying size and solubility to substantiate...... this advice and quantify the effect of skin wash following 6 h dermal exposure on subsequent extent of skin penetration and deposition within the skin compartment. METHOD: Percutaneous penetration through human skin is studied in an in vitro model with static diffusion cells. RESULTS: The study demonstrates...

  15. Natural vibration response based damage detection for an operating wind turbine via Random Coefficient Linear Parameter Varying AR modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avendaño-Valencia, L. D.; Fassois, S. D.

    2015-07-01

    The problem of damage detection in an operating wind turbine under normal operating conditions is addressed. This is characterized by difficulties associated with the lack of measurable excitation(s), the vibration response non-stationary nature, and its dependence on various types of uncertainties. To overcome these difficulties a stochastic approach based on Random Coefficient (RC) Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) AutoRegressive (AR) models is postulated. These models may effectively represent the non-stationary random vibration response under healthy conditions and subsequently used for damage detection through hypothesis testing. The performance of the method for damage and fault detection in an operating wind turbine is subsequently assessed via Monte Carlo simulations using the FAST simulation package.

  16. Development of Wind Power Generation Model with DFIG for Varying Wind Speed and Frequency Control for Wind Diesel Power Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh Kumari

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The power generation with non-renewable energy sources has very harmful effects on the environment as well as these sources are depleting. On the other side the renewable energy sources are quite unpredictable source of power. The best trade-off is to use the combination of both kind of sources to make a hybrid system so that their individual power generation constraints can be overcome. The hybrid system taken for analysis in this work comprises of wind and diesel power generation systems. The complete modelling of the system has been done in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. Doubly fed induction generator (DFIG is used for power generation in wind power system. The modelling has been done considering the changing wind speed and varying load conditions. The mathematical models of DFIG and diesel power generator have been used to develop the simulink model which can be used for analysis of various performances of the system like frequency response and power sharing between different sources with load variation .The generating margin of DFIG is also simulated for the frequency support during varying load conditions .The generating margin is created by the control of active power output from DFIG. Also as the power demand rises the generating margin of DFIG keeps the balance between the power generation and load. Proportional Integral controller has been used for diesel generator plant for frequency control. The controller gains have been optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization technique. The proper selection of controller gains and wind power reserve help to achieve the enhanced frequency response of the hybrid system.

  17. Wide band modeling of large power transformer windings for very fast transient overvoltage (VFTO) analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Yu; WANG ZanJi

    2009-01-01

    There are some difficulties in using multi-transmission-line (MTL) model for wide band modeling of whole windings of the large power transformer. In this paper, the normalized MTL model is firstly de-rived, with which not only the difficulty of modeling windings with different turn-lengths using MTL can be solved, but also the model can be extended to the modeling of the multi-winding transformer. Sec-ondly, both MTL model and the lumped circuit model on turn basis are mathematically compared in validation of the frequency range and it is pointed out that the lumped circuit model on turn basis is generally valid below 2.5 MHz for EHV and UHV power transformers. Finally, based on the MTL equa-tions, a novel lumped circuit model is derived and it is shown that the valid frequency range of the new circuit is extended to about 4 MHz for modeling large EHV and UHV power transformer windings.

  18. Interaction of the human N-Ras protein with lipid raft model membranes of varying degrees of complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Alexander; Nikolaus, Jörg; Weise, Katrin; Triola, Gemma; Waldmann, Herbert; Winter, Roland; Herrmann, Andreas; Huster, Daniel

    2014-07-01

    Ternary lipid mixtures composed of cholesterol, saturated (frequently with sphingosine backbone), and unsaturated phospholipids show stable phase separation and are often used as model systems of lipid rafts. Yet, their ability to reproduce raft properties and function is still debated. We investigated the properties and functional aspects of three lipid raft model systems of varying degrees of biological relevance--PSM/POPC/Chol, DPPC/POPC/Chol, and DPPC/DOPC/Chol--using 2H solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and atomic force microscopy. While some minor differences were observed, the general behavior and properties of all three model mixtures were similar to previously investigated influenza envelope lipid membranes, which closely mimic the lipid composition of biological membranes. For the investigation of the functional aspects, we employed the human N-Ras protein, which is posttranslationally modified by two lipid modifications that anchor the protein to the membrane. It was previously shown that N-Ras preferentially resides in liquid-disordered domains and exhibits a time-dependent accumulation in the domain boundaries of influenza envelope lipid membranes. For all three model mixtures, we observed the same membrane partitioning behavior for N-Ras. Therefore, we conclude that even relatively simple models of raft membranes are able to reproduce many of their specific properties and functions.

  19. Constrained Probabilistic Economic Order Quantity Model under Varying Order Cost and Zero Lead Time Via Geometric Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotb A.E.H.M. Kotb

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In this study, we provide a simple method to determine the inventory policy of probabilistic single-item Economic Order Quantity (EOQ model, that has varying order cost and zero lead time. The model is restricted to the expected holding cost and the expected available limited storage space. Approach: The annual expected total cost is composed of three components (expected purchase cost, expected ordering cost and expected holding cost. The problem is then solved using a modified Geometric Programming method (GP. Results: Using the annual expected total cost to determine the optimal solutions, number of periods, maximum inventory level and minimum expected total cost per period. A classical model is derived and numerical example is solved to confirm the model. Conclusion/Recommendations: The results indicated the total cost decreased with changes in optimal solutions. Possible future extension of this model was include continuous decreasing ordering function of the number of periods and introducing expected annual demand rate as a decision variable.

  20. A simulation of cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a mathematical power balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    The current study simulated cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a power balance model. By applying the hypothetical inductive deductive method, we compared the simulated position along the track with actual skiing on snow, and calculated the theoretical effect of friction and air drag on skiing performance. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature, whereas the model included relationships between heart rate, metabolic rate, and work rate based on the treadmill roller-ski testing of an elite cross-country skier. We verified this procedure by testing four models of metabolic rate against experimental data on the treadmill. The experimental data corresponded well with the simulations, with the best fit when work rate was increased on uphill and decreased on downhill terrain. The simulations predicted that skiing time increases by 3%-4% when either friction or air drag increases by 10%. In conclusion, the power balance model was found to be a useful tool for predicting how various factors influence racing performance in cross-country skiing.

  1. A simulation of cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a mathematical power balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Human Movement Science Program, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study simulated cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a power balance model. By applying the hypothetical inductive deductive method, we compared the simulated position along the track with actual skiing on snow, and calculated the theoretical effect of friction and air drag on skiing performance. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature, whereas the model included relationships between heart rate, metabolic rate, and work rate based on the treadmill roller-ski testing of an elite cross-country skier. We verified this procedure by testing four models of metabolic rate against experimental data on the treadmill. The experimental data corresponded well with the simulations, with the best fit when work rate was increased on uphill and decreased on downhill terrain. The simulations predicted that skiing time increases by 3%–4% when either friction or air drag increases by 10%. In conclusion, the power balance model was found to be a useful tool for predicting how various factors influence racing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: skiing, power balance, metabolic rate, work rate, air drag, friction coefficient

  2. 离散型指数族非线性模型的变离差检验%TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION IN DISCRETE EXPONENTIAL FAMILY NONLNEAR MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林金官; 韦博成; 张南松

    2003-01-01

    It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models. Wei,et al (1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models. This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed. Two types of varying dispersion, which are random coefficients model and random effects model, are proposed ,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple ,easy to use ,matrix formulas.

  3. Genome-wide expression profiling of five mouse models identifies similarities and differences with human psoriasis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Swindell

    Full Text Available Development of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features of the human disease, and standardized validation criteria for psoriasis mouse models have not been widely applied. In this study, whole-genome transcriptional profiling is used to compare gene expression patterns manifested by human psoriatic skin lesions with those that occur in five psoriasis mouse models (K5-Tie2, imiquimod, K14-AREG, K5-Stat3C and K5-TGFbeta1. While the cutaneous gene expression profiles associated with each mouse phenotype exhibited statistically significant similarity to the expression profile of psoriasis in humans, each model displayed distinctive sets of similarities and differences in comparison to human psoriasis. For all five models, correspondence to the human disease was strong with respect to genes involved in epidermal development and keratinization. Immune and inflammation-associated gene expression, in contrast, was more variable between models as compared to the human disease. These findings support the value of all five models as research tools, each with identifiable areas of convergence to and divergence from the human disease. Additionally, the approach used in this paper provides an objective and quantitative method for evaluation of proposed mouse models of psoriasis, which can be strategically applied in future studies to score strengths of mouse phenotypes relative to specific aspects of human psoriasis.

  4. Communication Service Model for Wide Area Protection System Based on IEC 61850

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CONG Wei; PAN Zhencun; GAO Zhanjun; ZENG Yuxiao; ZHAI Yunjuan

    2008-01-01

    In order to meet the requirements of information exchange varieties and manners in wide area protection system, a communication service model based on IEC 61850 is proposed. This service model can realize communication consistency and cooperation between different types of devices. Furthermore, the communication reliability and time delay performance are guaranteed to meet the requirements of relay protection from the upper layer. Message structure of generic substation event (GSE) and its communication mechanism are discussed. General methods to communicate digital information by generic substation status event (GSSE) and communicate analog sampling information by sampling analog value (SAV) of GSE are proposed.

  5. Varying the resolution of the Rouse model on temporal and spatial scales: application to multiscale modelling of DNA dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Rolls, Edward; Erban, Radek

    2016-01-01

    A multi-resolution bead-spring model for polymer dynamics is developed as a generalization of the Rouse model. A polymer chain is described using beads of variable sizes connected by springs with variable spring constants. A numerical scheme which can use different timesteps to advance the positions of different beads is presented and analyzed. The position of a particular bead is only updated at integer multiples of the timesteps associated with its connecting springs. This approach extends the Rouse model to a multiscale model on both spatial and temporal scales, allowing simulations of localized regions of a polymer chain with high spatial and temporal resolution, while using a coarser modelling approach to describe the rest of the polymer chain. A method for changing the model resolution on-the-fly is developed using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. It is shown that this approach maintains key statistics of the end-to-end distance and diffusion of the polymer filament and makes computational savings whe...

  6. Modeling and large-eddy simulation (LES) of a turbulent boundary layer over linearly-varying surface roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, A.; Pullin, D. I.; Cheng, W.

    2016-11-01

    An empirical model is presented, after Rotta (1962), that describes the development of a fully-developed turbulent boundary layer in the presence of surface roughness with nominal roughness length-scale ks that varies with stream-wise distance x. For Rex =Ue (x) x / ν large, use is made of the log-wake model of the local turbulent mean-velocity profile that contains the Hama roughness correction ΔU+ (ks+) for the asymptotic, fully rough regime. It is shown that the skin friction coefficient Cf is constant in x only for ks = αx , where α is a dimensionless number. For Ue (x) = Axm , this then gives a two-parameter (α , m) family of solutions for boundary-layer flows that are self similar in the variable z / (α x) where z is the wall-normal co-ordinate. Trends observed in this model are supported by wall-modeled LES of the zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layer (m = 0) at very large Rex . It is argued that the present results suggest that, in the sense that Cf is spatially constant and independent of Rex , this class of flows can be interpreted as providing the asymptotically-rough equivalent of Moody-like diagrams for boundary layers in the presence of small-scale roughness. Supported partially by KAUST OCRF Award No. URF/1/1394-01 and partially by NSF award CBET 1235605.

  7. Adaptive Fourier series modeling of time-varying evoked potentials: study of human somatosensory evoked response to etomidate anesthetic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakor, N V; Vaz, C A; McPherson, R W; Hanley, D F

    1991-01-01

    Evoked potentials (EPs) have traditionally been analyzed in time domain, with amplitude and latency of various signal components used in clinical interpretation. A new approach, called adaptive Fourier series modeling (FSM), is presented here. Dynamic changes in magnitudes of Fourier coefficients are analyzed for diagnostic purposes. In order to estimate the time-varying changes in the Fourier coefficients of noisy signals, a least mean-square filtering algorithm is applied. Results of computer simulations as well as experimental data are presented. Time-varying trends are presented in a new compressed evoked spectrum format. These techniques are applied to the study of alterations in human somatosensory EPs caused by the intravenous administration of etomidate during neurosurgical procedures. Amplitude increases of the order of 200-500% occurring within a time span of about 100 sec were captured. Due to its superior convergence properties, the adaptive FSM technique estimates more rapid changes in amplitude and latency than exponentially weighted averaging or moving window averaging schemes.

  8. Effects of ion strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Solon, Kimberly;

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections) andion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs). Using the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) as a case study, this paper presents...... the effects that an improved physico-chemical description will have on the predicted effluent quality (EQI) and operational cost (OCI) indices. The acid-base equilibria implemented in the Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) are modified to account for non-ideal aqueous-phase chemistry. The model corrects...... processes. Results at high ionic strength demonstrate that corrections to account for non-ideal conditions lead to significant differences in predicted process performance. In addition, the paper describes: 1) how the anaerobic digester performance is affected; 2) the effect on pH and the anaerobic...

  9. Adaptive Wide-Area Damping Control for HVDC Transmission System Considering Influence of Time-Varying Delay%考虑时变时滞影响的直流广域阻尼自适应控制

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡楠; 李兴源; 杨毅强; 覃波

    2014-01-01

    针对交直流系统区间低频振荡问题,尤其是广域测量系统引入的时滞影响问题,利用递归最小二乘法在线辨识区间振荡主导模态,在直流附加控制抑制低频振荡机理的基础上,通过在线计算利用交流联络线功率信号进行阻尼控制的滞后相位与时变时滞造成低频振荡模态信号的滞后相位,将时域信号转化为二维旋转坐标体系中的向量信号,经过参考坐标体系的角度旋转,分别进行阻尼与时滞滞后相角的自适应补偿,结合增益放大,通过时域反变换后可得到最终补偿后的直流附加控制量。8机36节点系统仿真表明,所提设计方法能够消除时变时滞的影响,有效阻尼系统低频振荡,并且具有鲁棒性,适合在线应用。%In allusion to inter-area low-frequency oscillation occurred in AC-DC power transmission system, especially to the time delay caused by wide-area measurement system, using recursive least squares (RLS), the online identification of dominant modal of inter-area oscillation is implemented, and on the basis of suppressing low-frequency oscillation by adding supplementary control of HVDC, through the online calculation of the lagging phase caused by utilizing power signal of AC tie line transmission line for damping control and the lagging phase of low-frequency oscillation signal due to the time-varying delay, the time-domain signals are transformed into vector signals in the two dimensional rotating coordinate system, then by means of angle rotated in reference coordinate system the adaptive compensation for lagging phase due to damping control and the adaptive compensation for lagging phase due to time-varying delay are carried out respectively. Combining with gain amplification, after the inverse transformation in time-domain the post-final compensation DC supplementary controlled quantity can be obtained. Simulation results of a 8-machine 36-bus system show that the

  10. A spreadsheet-based model demonstrating the nonuniform economic effects of varying reproductive performance in Ohio dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meadows, C; Rajala-Schultz, P J; Frazer, G S

    2005-03-01

    A spreadsheet-based model was developed to estimate the economic effect of varying reproductive performance in dairy herds. Scenarios were created to model an average cow with respect to production, herd lifetime, and reproductive events. Average milk yield per day of life as well as lifetime calf and replacement heifer production were examined. Additional inputs representing milk, feed, semen, calf, and salvage prices were used to calculate net cash flow for each day of herd life for the average cow in a scenario. Economic comparison of different scenarios was accomplished using an equivalent annual cash flow (annuity) methodology.Herd performance measures and prices representative of Ohio dairy herds were used to establish a baseline average cow that had a 160-d calving-to-conception interval [days open (DO)]. Alternative scenarios that differed from baseline in DO, annual culling rate, and feed and milk prices were created to characterize the effects of changes. Under scenario inputs representative of typical Ohio dairy herds, the model indicated that a lower annual culling rate (25%) was preferable to higher annual culling rates (34 or 45%). The model estimated maximum average milk yield per day of life to occur at 110 DO. At 34% annual culling rate, calves and replacement heifers produced per lifetime declined as DO increased; beyond 150 DO, the modeled cow produced less than 1 replacement heifer per lifetime. The model also estimated a loss of $1.37 per cow per year for a 1-d increase in DO beyond 160 d. At 20% higher feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.52 per cow per year; at 20% lower feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.23 per cow per year. Furthermore, the model suggested that the loss associated with a 1-d increase in DO changed as DO changed. Using baseline inputs, the model calculated losses for a 1-d increase of $0.44 per cow per year at 130 DO and $1.71 per cow per year at 190 DO. The nonuniform nature of the cost

  11. Genome-wide association study of handedness excludes simple genetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, J AL; Davison, A; McManus, I C

    2014-01-01

    Handedness is a human behavioural phenotype that appears to be congenital, and is often assumed to be inherited, but for which the developmental origin and underlying causation(s) have been elusive. Models of the genetic basis of variation in handedness have been proposed that fit different features of the observed resemblance between relatives, but none has been decisively tested or a corresponding causative locus identified. In this study, we applied data from well-characterised individuals studied at the London Twin Research Unit. Analysis of genome-wide SNP data from 3940 twins failed to identify any locus associated with handedness at a genome-wide level of significance. The most straightforward interpretation of our analyses is that they exclude the simplest formulations of the ‘right-shift' model of Annett and the ‘dextral/chance' model of McManus, although more complex modifications of those models are still compatible with our observations. For polygenic effects, our study is inadequately powered to reliably detect alleles with effect sizes corresponding to an odds ratio of 1.2, but should have good power to detect effects at an odds ratio of 2 or more. PMID:24065183

  12. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiwu; Buckler, Edward S; Casstevens, Terry M; Bradbury, Peter J

    2009-11-01

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample size and number of markers used for GWAS is increasing dramatically, resulting in greater statistical power to detect those associations. The use of mixed models with increasingly large data sets depends on the availability of software for analyzing those models. While multiple software packages implement the mixed model method, no single package provides the best combination of fast computation, ability to handle large samples, flexible modeling and ease of use. Key elements of association analysis with mixed models are reviewed, including modeling phenotype-genotype associations using mixed models, population stratification, kinship and its estimation, variance component estimation, use of best linear unbiased predictors or residuals in place of raw phenotype, improving efficiency and software-user interaction. The available software packages are evaluated, and suggestions made for future software development.

  13. A Spatially Explicit and Seasonally Varying Cholera Prevalence Model With Distributed Macro-Scale Environmental and Hydroclimatic Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Eltahir, E. A.; Islam, S.

    2011-12-01

    Despite major advances in the ecological and microbiological understanding of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, the role of underlying large-scale processes in the progression of the cholera disease in space and time is not well understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit and seasonally varying coupled hydroclimatology-epidemiology model for understanding regional scale cholera prevalence in response to large scale hydroclimatic and environmental forcings. Our results show that environmental cholera transmission can be modulated by two spatially and seasonally distinct mechanisms - influenced by dry and wet season hydrologic determinants. The model is applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin areas in Bangladesh to simulate spatially explicit cholera prevalence rates, and validated with long-term cholera data from Dhaka and shorter-term records from regional surveillance locations. The model reproduces the variability of cholera prevalence at monthly, seasonal, and interannual timescales and highlights the role of asymmetric large scale hydroclimatic processes as the dominant controls. Our findings have important implications for formulating effective cholera intervention strategies, and for understanding the impacts of changing climate patterns on seasonal cholera transmission.

  14. Time-frequency representation based on time-varying autoregressive model with applications to non-stationary rotor vibration analysis

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Long Zhang; Guoliang Xiong; Hesheng Liu; Huijun Zou; Weizhong Guo

    2010-04-01

    A parametric time-frequency representation is presented based on timevarying autoregressive model (TVAR), followed by applications to non-stationary vibration signal processing. The identification of time-varying model coefficients and the determination of model order, are addressed by means of neural networks and genetic algorithms, respectively. Firstly, a simulated signal which mimic the rotor vibration during run-up stages was processed for a comparative study on TVAR and other non-parametric time-frequency representations such as Short Time Fourier Transform, Continuous Wavelet Transform, Empirical Mode Decomposition, Wigner–Ville Distribution and Choi–Williams Distribution, in terms of their resolutions, accuracy, cross term suppression as well as noise resistance. Secondly, TVAR was applied to analyse non-stationary vibration signals collected from a rotor test rig during run-up stages, with an aim to extract fault symptoms under non-stationary operating conditions. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that TVAR is an effective solution to non-stationary signal analysis and has strong capability in signal time-frequency feature extraction.

  15. Surrogate runner model for draft tube losses computation within a wide range of operating points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan-Resiga, R.; Muntean, S.; Ciocan, T.; de Colombel, T.; Leroy, P.

    2014-03-01

    We introduce a quasi two-dimensional (Q2D) methodology for assessing the swirling flow exiting the runner of hydraulic turbines at arbitrary operating points, within a wide operating range. The Q2D model does not need actual runner computations, and as a result it represents a surrogate runner model for a-priori assessment of the swirling flow ingested by the draft tube. The axial, radial and circumferential velocity components are computed on a conical section located immediately downstream the runner blades trailing edge, then used as inlet conditions for regular draft tube computations. The main advantage of our model is that it allows the determination of the draft tube losses within the intended turbine operating range in the early design stages of a new or refurbished runner, thus providing a robust and systematic methodology to meet the optimal requirements for the flow at the runner outlet.

  16. Toronto Heart Attack Collaborative: an administrative model that facilitated a successful city-wide integration initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Justin; McLellan, Barry; Escaf, Marnie; Dzavik, Vladimir; Michaud, Susan; Newton, Janet; Newman, Erone

    2014-01-01

    This article provides a description of the administrative model that enabled a city-wide integration effort between Greater Toronto Area hospitals and Toronto Emergency Medical Services in the care of patients within the city of Toronto with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This administrative structure, known as the Toronto Heart Attack Collaborative (THAC), enabled universal 24/7 access to primary percutaneous coronary intervention within Toronto, improving patient efficacy and outcomes. The lessons and administrative enablers from this experience may be useful for regions that are embarking on multi-centre integration efforts. This article presents a five-year perspective on the THAC integration effort.

  17. Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

    2015-06-01

    We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

  18. Bottles as models: predicting the effects of varying swimming speed and morphology on size selectivity and filtering efficiency in fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paig-Tran, E W Misty; Bizzarro, Joseph J; Strother, James A; Summers, Adam P

    2011-05-15

    We created physical models based on the morphology of ram suspension-feeding fishes to better understand the roles morphology and swimming speed play in particle retention, size selectivity and filtration efficiency during feeding events. We varied the buccal length, flow speed and architecture of the gills slits, including the number, size, orientation and pore size/permeability, in our models. Models were placed in a recirculating flow tank with slightly negatively buoyant plankton-like particles (~20-2000 μm) collected at the simulated esophagus and gill rakers to locate the highest density of particle accumulation. Particles were captured through sieve filtration, direct interception and inertial impaction. Changing the number of gill slits resulted in a change in the filtration mechanism of particles from a bimodal filter, with very small (≤ 50 μm) and very large (>1000 μm) particles collected, to a filter that captured medium-sized particles (101-1000 μm). The number of particles collected on the gill rakers increased with flow speed and skewed the size distribution towards smaller particles (51-500 μm). Small pore sizes (105 and 200 μm mesh size) had the highest filtration efficiencies, presumably because sieve filtration played a significant role. We used our model to make predictions about the filtering capacity and efficiency of neonatal whale sharks. These results suggest that the filtration mechanics of suspension feeding are closely linked to an animal's swimming speed and the structural design of the buccal cavity and gill slits.

  19. The Effect of Varying Jaw-elevator Muscle Forces on a Finite Element Model of a Human Cranium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro-Ibacache, Viviana; O'Higgins, Paul

    2016-07-01

    Finite element analyses simulating masticatory system loading are increasingly undertaken in primates, hominin fossils and modern humans. Simplifications of models and loadcases are often required given the limits of data and technology. One such area of uncertainty concerns the forces applied to cranial models and their sensitivity to variations in these forces. We assessed the effect of varying force magnitudes among jaw-elevator muscles applied to a finite element model of a human cranium. The model was loaded to simulate incisor and molar bites using different combinations of muscle forces. Symmetric, asymmetric, homogeneous, and heterogeneous muscle activations were simulated by scaling maximal forces. The effects were compared with respect to strain distribution (i.e., modes of deformation) and magnitudes; bite forces and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) reaction forces. Predicted modes of deformation, strain magnitudes and bite forces were directly proportional to total applied muscle force and relatively insensitive to the degree of heterogeneity of muscle activation. However, TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains decrease and increase on the balancing and working sides according to the degree of asymmetry of loading. These results indicate that when modes, rather than magnitudes, of facial deformation are of interest, errors in applied muscle forces have limited effects. However the degree of asymmetric loading does impact on TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains. These findings are of particular interest in relation to studies of skeletal and fossil material, where muscle data are not available and estimation of muscle forces from skeletal proxies is prone to error. Anat Rec, 299:828-839, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. A non-invasive method to produce pressure ulcers of varying severity in a spinal cord-injured rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, A K; Goodwin, C R; Sarabia-Estrada, R; Lay, F; Ansari, A M; Steenbergen, C; Pang, C; Cohen, R; Born, L J; Matsangos, A E; Ng, C; Marti, G P; Abu-Bonsrah, N; Phillips, N A; Suk, I; Sciubba, D M; Harmon, J W

    2016-12-01

    Experimental study. The objective of this study was to establish a non-invasive model to produce pressure ulcers of varying severity in animals with spinal cord injury (SCI). The study was conducted at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. A mid-thoracic (T7-T9) left hemisection was performed on Sprague-Dawley rats. At 7 days post SCI, rats received varying degrees of pressure on the left posterior thigh region. Laser Doppler Flowmetry was used to record blood flow. Animals were killed 12 days after SCI. A cardiac puncture was performed for blood chemistry, and full-thickness tissue was harvested for histology. Doppler blood flow after SCI prior to pressure application was 237.808±16.175 PFUs at day 7. Following pressure application, there was a statistically significant decrease in blood flow in all pressure-applied groups in comparison with controls with a mean perfusion of 118.361±18.223 (Ppressure ulcer formation in the setting of a SCI. Histological analysis revealed different stages of injury corresponding to the amount of pressure the animals were exposed to with decreased blood flow immediately after the insult along with a subsequent marked increase in blood flow the next day, conducive to an ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) and a possible inflammatory response following tissue injury. Following ischemia and hypoxia secondary to microcirculation impairment, free radicals generate lipid peroxidation, leading to ischemic tissue damage. Future studies should be aimed at measuring free radicals during this period of increased blood flow, following tissue ischemia.

  1. Time-varying autoregressive model for spectral analysis of microseismic experiments and long-period volcanic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tary, J. B.; Herrera, R. H.; van der Baan, M.

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies show that the frequency content of continuous passive recordings contains useful information for the study of hydraulic fracturing experiments as well as longstanding applications in volcano and global seismology. The short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is usually used to obtain the time-frequency representation of a seismic trace. Yet, this transform has two main disadvantages, namely its fixed time-frequency resolution and spectral leakage. Here, we describe two methods based on autoregressive (AR) models: the short-time autoregressive method (ST-AR) and the Kalman smoother (KS). These two methods allow for the AR coefficients to vary over time in order to follow time-varying frequency contents. The outcome of AR methods depends mainly on the number of AR coefficients. We use a robust approach to estimate the optimum order of the AR methods that best matches the spectral comparison between Fourier and AR spectra. Comparing the outcomes of the three methods on a synthetic signal, a long-period volcanic event, and microseismic data, we show that the STFT and both AR methods are able to track fast changes in frequency content. The STFT provides reasonable results even for noisy data using a simple and effective algorithm. The coefficients of the AR filter are defined at all time in the case of the KS. However, its better time resolution is slightly offset by a lower frequency resolution and its computational complexity. The ST-AR has a high spectral resolution and the lowest sensitivity to background noises, facilitating the identification of the various frequency components. The estimated AR coefficients can also be used to extract parts of the signal. The study of long-term phenomena, such as resonance frequencies, or transient events, such as long-period events, could help to gain further insight on reservoir deformation during hydraulic fracturing experiments as well as global or volcano seismological signals.

  2. Topology preserving non-rigid image registration using time-varying elasticity model for MRI brain volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Sahar; Khan, Muhammad Faisal

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we present a new non-rigid image registration method that imposes a topology preservation constraint on the deformation. We propose to incorporate the time varying elasticity model into the deformable image matching procedure and constrain the Jacobian determinant of the transformation over the entire image domain. The motion of elastic bodies is governed by a hyperbolic partial differential equation, generally termed as elastodynamics wave equation, which we propose to use as a deformation model. We carried out clinical image registration experiments on 3D magnetic resonance brain scans from IBSR database. The results of the proposed registration approach in terms of Kappa index and relative overlap computed over the subcortical structures were compared against the existing topology preserving non-rigid image registration methods and non topology preserving variant of our proposed registration scheme. The Jacobian determinant maps obtained with our proposed registration method were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results demonstrated that the proposed scheme provides good registration accuracy with smooth transformations, thereby guaranteeing the preservation of topology.

  3. A discrete time-varying internal model-based approach for high precision tracking of a multi-axis servo gantry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Yan, Peng; Jiang, Huan; Ye, Peiqing

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we consider the discrete time-varying internal model-based control design for high precision tracking of complicated reference trajectories generated by time-varying systems. Based on a novel parallel time-varying internal model structure, asymptotic tracking conditions for the design of internal model units are developed, and a low order robust time-varying stabilizer is further synthesized. In a discrete time setting, the high precision tracking control architecture is deployed on a Voice Coil Motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system, where numerical simulations and real time experimental results are provided, achieving the tracking errors around 3.5‰ for frequency-varying signals. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modelling anaerobic co-digestion in Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2: Parameter estimation, substrate characterisation and plant-wide integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnell, Magnus; Astals, Sergi; Åmand, Linda; Batstone, Damien J; Jensen, Paul D; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2016-07-01

    Anaerobic co-digestion is an emerging practice at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) to improve the energy balance and integrate waste management. Modelling of co-digestion in a plant-wide WWTP model is a powerful tool to assess the impact of co-substrate selection and dose strategy on digester performance and plant-wide effects. A feasible procedure to characterise and fractionate co-substrates COD for the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) was developed. This procedure is also applicable for the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). Long chain fatty acid inhibition was included in the ADM1 model to allow for realistic modelling of lipid rich co-substrates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, apart from the biodegradable fraction of COD, protein and lipid fractions are the most important fractions for methane production and digester stability, with at least two major failure modes identified through principal component analysis (PCA). The model and procedure were tested on bio-methane potential (BMP) tests on three substrates, each rich on carbohydrates, proteins or lipids with good predictive capability in all three cases. This model was then applied to a plant-wide simulation study which confirmed the positive effects of co-digestion on methane production and total operational cost. Simulations also revealed the importance of limiting the protein load to the anaerobic digester to avoid ammonia inhibition in the digester and overloading of the nitrogen removal processes in the water train. In contrast, the digester can treat relatively high loads of lipid rich substrates without prolonged disturbances.

  5. A retinal circuit model accounting for wide-field amacrine cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sağlam, Murat; Hayashida, Yuki; Murayama, Nobuki

    2009-03-01

    In previous experimental studies on the visual processing in vertebrates, higher-order visual functions such as the object segregation from background were found even in the retinal stage. Previously, the "linear-nonlinear" (LN) cascade models have been applied to the retinal circuit, and succeeded to describe the input-output dynamics for certain parts of the circuit, e.g., the receptive field of the outer retinal neurons. And recently, some abstract models composed of LN cascades as the circuit elements could explain the higher-order retinal functions. However, in such a model, each class of retinal neurons is mostly omitted and thus, how those neurons play roles in the visual computations cannot be explored. Here, we present a spatio-temporal computational model of the vertebrate retina, based on the response function for each class of retinal neurons and on the anatomical inter-cellular connections. This model was capable of not only reproducing the spatio-temporal filtering properties of the outer retinal neurons, but also realizing the object segregation mechanism in the inner retinal circuit involving the "wide-field" amacrine cells. Moreover, the first-order Wiener kernels calculated for the neurons in our model showed a reasonable fit to the kernels previously measured in the real retinal neuron in situ.

  6. Computational modelling of genome-wide [corrected] transcription assembly networks using a fluidics analogy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousry Y Azmy

    Full Text Available Understanding how a myriad of transcription regulators work to modulate mRNA output at thousands of genes remains a fundamental challenge in molecular biology. Here we develop a computational tool to aid in assessing the plausibility of gene regulatory models derived from genome-wide expression profiling of cells mutant for transcription regulators. mRNA output is modelled as fluid flow in a pipe lattice, with assembly of the transcription machinery represented by the effect of valves. Transcriptional regulators are represented as external pressure heads that determine flow rate. Modelling mutations in regulatory proteins is achieved by adjusting valves' on/off settings. The topology of the lattice is designed by the experimentalist to resemble the expected interconnection between the modelled agents and their influence on mRNA expression. Users can compare multiple lattice configurations so as to find the one that minimizes the error with experimental data. This computational model provides a means to test the plausibility of transcription regulation models derived from large genomic data sets.

  7. Dispersion model for optical thin films applicable in wide spectral range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franta, Daniel; Nečas, David; Ohlídal, Ivan; Giglia, Angelo

    2015-09-01

    In the optics industry thin film systems are used to construct various interference devices such as antireflective coatings, high-reflectance mirrors, beam splitters and filters. The optical characterization of complex optical systems can not be performed by measurements only in the short spectral range in which the interference devices will be employed because the measured data do not contain sufficient information about all relevant parameters of these systems. The characterization of film materials requires the extension of the spectral range of the measurements to the IR region containing phonon absorption and to the UV region containing the electronic excitations. However, this leads to necessity of a dispersion model suitable for the description of the dielectric response in the wide spectral range. Such model must respect the physical conditions following from theory of dispersion, particularly Kramers-Kronig relations and integrability imposed by sum rules. This work presents the construction of a universal dispersion model composed from individual contributions representing both electronic and phonon excitations. The efficiency of presented model is given by the fact that all the contributions are described by analytical expressions. It is shown that the model is suitable for precise modeling of spectral dependencies of optical constants of a broad class of materials used in the optical industry for thin film systems such as MgF2, SiO2, Al2O3, HfO2, Ta2O5 and TiO2 in the spectral range from far IR to vacuum UV.

  8. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, S.; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Anthonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

  9. Identification of nonlinear time-varying systems using an online sliding-window and common model structure selection (CMSS) approach with applications to EEG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Wei, Hua-Liang; Billings, Stephen. A.; Sarrigiannis, P. G.

    2016-08-01

    The identification of nonlinear time-varying systems using linear-in-the-parameter models is investigated. An efficient common model structure selection (CMSS) algorithm is proposed to select a common model structure, with application to EEG data modelling. The time-varying parameters for the identified common-structured model are then estimated using a sliding-window recursive least squares (SWRLS) approach. The new method can effectively detect and adaptively track and rapidly capture the transient variation of nonstationary signals, and can also produce robust models with better generalisation properties. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the new approach including an application to EEG data.

  10. Optimising Habitat-Based Models for Wide-Ranging Marine Predators: Scale Matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales, K. L.; Hazen, E. L.; Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Bograd, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting the responses of marine top predators to dynamic oceanographic conditions requires habitat-based models that sufficiently capture environmental preferences. Spatial resolution and temporal averaging of environmental data layers is a key aspect of model construction. The utility of surfaces contemporaneous to animal movement (e.g. daily, weekly), versus synoptic products (monthly, seasonal, climatological) is currently under debate, as is the optimal spatial resolution for predictive products. Using movement simulations with built-in environmental preferences (correlated random walks, multi-state hidden Markov-type models) together with modeled (Regional Oceanographic Modeling System, ROMS) and remotely-sensed (MODIS-Aqua) datasets, we explored the effects of degrading environmental surfaces (3km - 1 degree, daily - climatological) on model inference. We simulated the movements of a hypothetical wide-ranging marine predator through the California Current system over a three month period (May-June-July), based on metrics derived from previously published blue whale Balaenoptera musculus tracking studies. Results indicate that models using seasonal or climatological data fields can overfit true environmental preferences, in both presence-absence and behaviour-based model formulations. Moreover, the effects of a degradation in spatial resolution are more pronounced when using temporally averaged fields than when using daily, weekly or monthly datasets. In addition, we observed a notable divergence between the `best' models selected using common methods (e.g. AUC, AICc) and those that most accurately reproduced built-in environmental preferences. These findings have important implications for conservation and management of marine mammals, seabirds, sharks, sea turtles and large teleost fish, particularly in implementing dynamic ocean management initiatives and in forecasting responses to future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

  11. Validation of a plant-wide phosphorus modelling approach with minerals precipitation in a full-scale WWTP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien John

    2016-01-01

    The focus of modelling in wastewater treatment is shifting from single unit to plant-wide scale. Plant wide modelling approaches provide opportunities to study the dynamics and interactions of different transformations in water and sludge streams. Towards developing more general and robust simula...

  12. Modelling plastic deformation of metals over a wide range of strain rates using irreversible thermodynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang Mingxin; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, Pedro E J; Zwaag, Sybrand van der [Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS, Delft (Netherlands); Bouaziz, Olivier, E-mail: mingxin.huang@arcelormittal.com [ArcelorMittal Maizieres, Research and Development, Voie Romaine-BP30320, 57283 Maizieres-les-Metz Cedex (France)

    2009-07-15

    Based on the theory of irreversible thermodynamics, the present work proposes a dislocation-based model to describe the plastic deformation of FCC metals over wide ranges of strain rates. The stress-strain behaviour and the evolution of the average dislocation density are derived. It is found that there is a transitional strain rate ({approx} 10{sup 4} s{sup -1}) over which the phonon drag effects appear, resulting in a significant increase in the flow stress and the average dislocation density. The model is applied to pure Cu deformed at room temperature and at strain rates ranging from 10{sup -5} to 10{sup 6} s{sup -1} showing good agreement with experimental results.

  13. A benchmark simulation model to describe plant-wide phosphorus transformations in WWTPs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Ikumi, D.; Kazadi-Mbamba, C.

    It is more than 10 years since the publication of the BSM1 technical report (Copp, 2002). The main objective of BSM1 was to create a platform for benchmarking C and N removal strategies in activated sludge systems. The initial platform evolved into BSM1_LT and BSM2, which allowed for the evaluati...... to be addressed and presents the simulation results of the first software prototype....... of monitoring and plant-wide control strategies, respectively. In addition, researchers working within the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for Wastewater Treatment Plants developed other BSM related spin-off products, such as the dynamic influent generator, sensor/actuators/fault models......) pursue biological/chemical phosphorus removal. However, realistic descriptions of combined C, N and P removal, adds a major, but unavoidable degree of complexity in wastewater treatment process models. This paper identifies and discusses important issues that need to be addressed to upgrade the BSM2...

  14. Modeling and experimental verification of an ultra-wide bandgap in 3D phononic crystal

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessandro, L.; Belloni, E.; Ardito, R.; Corigliano, A.; Braghin, F.

    2016-11-01

    This paper reports a comprehensive modeling and experimental characterization of a three-dimensional phononic crystal composed of a single material, endowed with an ultra-wide complete bandgap. The phononic band structure shows a gap-mid gap ratio of 132% that is by far the greatest full 3D bandgap in literature for any kind of phononic crystals. A prototype of the finite crystal structure has been manufactured in polyamide by means of additive manufacturing technology and tested to assess the transmission spectrum of the crystal. The transmission spectrum has been numerically calculated taking into account a frequency-dependent elastic modulus and a Rayleigh model for damping. The measured and numerical transmission spectra are in good agreement and present up to 75 dB of attenuation for a three-layer crystal.

  15. Examining Teacher Outcomes of the School-Wide Positive Behavior Support Model in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari-Anne Sørlie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Research on teacher outcomes of the School-Wide Positive Behavior Support (SWPBS model has been scarce. The present study adds to the knowledge base by examining the effects of the Norwegian version of SWPBS (N-PALS on school staffs’ behavior management practices and on their individual and collective efficacy. Questionnaire data were collected from staff and students (Grades 4-7 at four measurement points across four successive school years in 28 intervention schools and 20 comparison schools. Using longitudinal multilevel analyses, indications of positive 3-year main effects of the N-PALS model were observed for staff-reported collective efficacy, self-efficacy, and positive behavior support practices. The intervention effects as measured by Cohen’s d ranged from .14 to .91. The effects on student perceptions of teachers’ behavior management strategies were, however, not consistent with the positive staff ratings. Results are discussed in relation to prior research, future research, and study limitations.

  16. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Wesley K.; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power...... for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome...... of variance explained by genotyped SNPs, CD and SZ have a broadly dissimilar genetic architecture, due to differing mean effect size and proportion of non-null loci....

  17. Towards a benchmark simulation model for plant-wide control strategy performance evaluation of WWTPs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, Ulf; Rosen, Christian; Alex, Jens;

    2006-01-01

    The COST/IWA benchmark simulation model has been available for seven years. Its primary purpose has been to create a platform for control strategy benchmarking of activated sludge processes. The fact that the benchmark has resulted in more than 100 publications, not only in Europe but also...... worldwide, demonstrates the interest in such a tool within the research community In this paper, an extension of the benchmark simulation model no 1 (BSM1) is proposed. This extension aims at facilitating control strategy development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level and, consequently...... the changes, the evaluation period has been extended to one year. A prolonged evaluation period allows for long-term control strategies to be assessed and enables the use of control handles that cannot be evaluated in a realistic fashion in the one-week BSM1 evaluation period. In the paper, the extended plant...

  18. Application of a simple first-order, non-linear rainfall-runoff model in watersheds of varying permafrost coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. Robert; Hinzman, Larry

    2010-05-01

    The arctic and sub-arctic environments can be characterized as being in the zones continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost in these regions is site specific, it is the major control on many of the hydrologic processes including stream flow, soil moisture dynamics, and water storage processes. In areas underlain by permafrost, ice-rich soils a the permafrost table inhibit surface water percolation to the deep subsurface soils, resulting in an increased runoff generation during precipitation events (including snow melt), decreased baseflow between precipitation events, and relatively wetter soils compared to permafrost-free areas. Over the course of a summer season, the thawing of the active layer (the thin soil layer above the permafrost that seasonally freezes and thaws) increases the potential water holding capacity of the soil, resulting in a decreasing surface water contribution during precipitation events and a steadily increasing baseflow between precipitation events. The major challenge to hydrologic modeling in permafrost affected environments is accounting for the rapid spatial and temporal changes in the soil storage component with the thawing and freezing of the active layer and distribution of permafrost. Simulation of the storage storage component is further complicated as many of the variables that control the development of the active layer (and permafrost distribution) are not easily measurable beyond the point scale. Examples of these variables include soil material, soil moisture content, soil ice content, snow cover and depth, and surface temperature. Kirchner (2009) describes a method in which the total storage of a watershed can be derived directly from discharge measurements - the only hydrologic process that is easily measured at the watershed scale. Following the general procedure outlined by Kirchner, a simple rainfall-runoff model was developed and applied to basins of various scales and permafrost

  19. Cellular automaton model in the fundamental diagram approach reproducing the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Jun-fang, E-mail: tianhustbjtu@hotmail.com [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Yuan, Zhen-zhou; Jia, Bin; Fan, Hong-qiang; Wang, Tao [MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China)

    2012-09-10

    Velocity effect and critical velocity are incorporated into the average space gap cellular automaton model [J.F. Tian, et al., Phys. A 391 (2012) 3129], which was able to reproduce many spatiotemporal dynamics reported by the three-phase theory except the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams. The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. It is shown that the occurrence of synchronized outflow, free outflow of wide moving jams is closely related with drivers time delay in acceleration at the downstream jam front and the critical velocity, respectively. -- Highlights: ► Velocity effect is added into average space gap cellular automaton model. ► The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. ► The probabilistic nature of traffic breakdown is simulated. ► Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. ► The occurrence of synchronized outflow of jams depends on drivers time delay.

  20. Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glocer, A.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Singer, H. J.; Balch, C.; Weimer, D.; Welling, D.; Wiltberger, M.; Raeder, J.; Weigel, R. S.; McCollough, J.; Wing, S.

    2016-07-01

    We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

  1. Recent Site-Wide Transport Modeling Related to the Carbon Tetrachloride Plume at the Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergeron, Marcel P.; Cole, C R.

    2005-11-01

    Carbon tetrachloride transport in the unconfined aquifer system at the Hanford Site has been the subject of follow-on studies since the Carbon Tetrachloride Innovative Treatment Remediation Demonstration (ITRD) Program was completed in FY 2002. These scoping analyses were undertaken to provide support for strategic planning and guidance for the more robust modeling needed to obtain a final record of decision (ROD) for the carbon tetrachloride plume in the 200 West Area. This report documents the technical approach and the results of these follow-on, site-wide scale-modeling efforts. The existing site-wide groundwater model was used in this effort. The work extended that performed as part of the ITRD modeling study in which a 200 West Area scale submodel was developed to examine arrival concentrations at an arbitrary boundary between the 200 E and 200 W areas. These scoping analyses extended the analysis to predict the arrival of the carbon tetrachloride plume at the Columbia River. The results of these analyses illustrate the importance of developing field-scale estimates of natural attenuation parameters, abiotic degradation rate and soil/water equilibrium sorption coefficient, for carbon tetrachloride. With these parameters set to zero, carbon tetrachloride concentrations will exceed the compliance limit of 5 ?g/L outside the 200 Area Plateau Waste Management Area, and the aquifer source loading and area of the aquifer affected will continue to grow until arrival rates of carbon tetrachloride equal source release rates, estimated at 33 kg/yr. Results of this scoping analysis show that the natural attenuation parameters are critical in predicting the future movement of carbon tetrachloride from the 200 West Area. Results also show the significant change in predictions between continual source release from the vadose zone and complete source removal.

  2. A generation/recombination model assisted with two trap centers in wide band-gap semiconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Ken; Kuwabara, Takuhito; Uda, Tsuyoshi

    2013-03-01

    A generation/recombination (GR) model assisted with two trap centers has been proposed for studying reverse current on pn junctions in wide band-gap semiconductors. A level (Et1) has been assumed to be located near the bottom of the conduction band and the other (Et2) to be near the top of the valence band. The GR model has been developed by assuming (1) a high-electric field; F, (2) a short distance; d, between trap centers, (3) reduction in an energy-difference; Δeff = |Et1 - Et2| - eFd, and (4) hopping or tunneling conductions between trap centers with the same energy-level (Δeff ≈ 0). The GR rate has been modeled by trap levels, capture cross-sections, trap densities, and transition rate between trap centers. The GR rate, about 1010 greater than that estimated from the single-level model, has been predicted on pn junctions in a material with band-gap of 3.1 eV. Device simulations using the proposed GR model have been demonstrated for SiC diodes with and without a guard ring. A reasonable range for reverse current at room temperature has been simulated and stable convergence has been obtained in a numerical scheme for analyzing diodes with an electrically floating region.

  3. Biomechanical evaluation of varying the number of loops in a repair of a physiological model of Achilles tendon rupture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieco, Preston W; Frumberg, David B; Weinberg, Maxwell; Pivec, Robert; Naziri, Qais; Uribe, Jaime A

    2015-04-01

    Numerous suturing techniques have been described to treat Achilles tendon ruptures. No prior studies have evaluated frayed tendon ends on construct strength and whether this allows for less extensile exposure. Forty bovine Achilles tendons were divided into groups: 1 control and 4 experimental. Experimental groups were sectioned with ends frayed longitudinally in 2 mm intervals for 2 cm with no fraying for the control group. Four-stand Krackow sutures were used for repairs with 3 loops in the control group, 2 loops in frayed section for experimental groups, and varying numbers of loops (1-4) in healthy tendon. Samples were tested in loading cells at 100 N and 190 N for 1000 cycles. Gap width and maximum load failure were measured. Gapping was tendon (10.9-13.9 mm). Most early catastrophic failures (5/8) occurred in groups with 1-2 loops in healthy tendon. Two failures at 100 N occurred in 1-loop healthy tendons. The least failures occurred in controls (2/8), at 190 N. Suture loops incorporated into frayed tendon portions predisposed repairs to significantly greater gapping and lower maximal failure forces than 4-strand Krackow repairs in unfrayed tendons. We cannot recommend attempting more limited exposures with sutures in frayed tendon as this may lead to early repair failure. We provided a physiologic model utilizing frayed tendon ends that resembles in vivo Achilles tendon rupture. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Constitutive modeling of polycarbonate over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Zhou, Huamin; Huang, Zhigao; Zhang, Yun; Zhao, Xiaoxuan

    2016-06-01

    The mechanical behavior of polycarbonate was experimentally investigated over a wide range of strain rates ( 10^{-4} to 5× 103 s^{-1}) and temperatures (293 to 353 K). Compression tests under these conditions were performed using a SHIMADZU universal testing machine and a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Falling weight impact testing was carried out on an Instron Dynatup 9200 drop tower system. The rate- and temperature-dependent deformation behavior of polycarbonate was discussed in detail. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) tests were utilized to observe the glass ( α ) transition and the secondary ( β ) transition of polycarbonate. The DMA results indicate that the α and β transitions have a dramatic influence on the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The decompose/shift/reconstruct (DSR) method was utilized to decompose the storage modulus into the α and β components and extrapolate the entire modulus, the α-component modulus and the β-component modulus. Based on three previous models, namely, Mulliken-Boyce, G'Sell-Jonas and DSGZ, an adiabatic model is proposed to predict the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The model considers the contributions of both the α and β transitions to the mechanical behavior, and it has been implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit through a user material subroutine VUMAT. The model predictions are proven to essentially coincide with the experimental results during compression testing and falling weight impact testing.

  5. Constitutive modeling of polycarbonate over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Zhou, Huamin; Huang, Zhigao; Zhang, Yun; Zhao, Xiaoxuan

    2017-02-01

    The mechanical behavior of polycarbonate was experimentally investigated over a wide range of strain rates (10^{-4} to 5× 103 s^{-1}) and temperatures (293 to 353 K). Compression tests under these conditions were performed using a SHIMADZU universal testing machine and a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Falling weight impact testing was carried out on an Instron Dynatup 9200 drop tower system. The rate- and temperature-dependent deformation behavior of polycarbonate was discussed in detail. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) tests were utilized to observe the glass (α ) transition and the secondary (β ) transition of polycarbonate. The DMA results indicate that the α and β transitions have a dramatic influence on the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The decompose/shift/reconstruct (DSR) method was utilized to decompose the storage modulus into the α and β components and extrapolate the entire modulus, the α-component modulus and the β-component modulus. Based on three previous models, namely, Mulliken-Boyce, G'Sell-Jonas and DSGZ, an adiabatic model is proposed to predict the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The model considers the contributions of both the α and β transitions to the mechanical behavior, and it has been implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit through a user material subroutine VUMAT. The model predictions are proven to essentially coincide with the experimental results during compression testing and falling weight impact testing.

  6. A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Tu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK and Precise Point Positioning (PPP service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2–3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC and Differential Code Bias (DCB values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

  7. A lithium-ion capacitor model working on a wide temperature range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcellona, S.; Piegari, L.

    2017-02-01

    Energy storage systems are spreading both in stationary and transport applications. Among innovative storage devices, lithium ion capacitors (LiCs) are very interesting. They combine the advantages of both traditional electric double layer capacitors (EDLCs) and lithium ion batteries (LiBs). The behavior of this device is much more similar to ELDCs than to batteries. For this reason, several models developed for traditional ELDCs were extended to LiCs. Anyway, at low temperatures LiCs behavior is quite different from ELDCs and it is more similar to a LiB. Consequently, EDLC models works fine at room temperature but give worse results at low temperatures. This paper proposes a new electric model that, overcoming this issue, is a valid solution in a wide temperature range. Based on only five parameters, depending on polarization voltage and temperature, the proposed model is very simple to be implemented. Its accuracy is verified through experimental tests. From the reported results, it is also shown that, at very low temperatures, the dependence of the resistance from the current has to be taken into account.

  8. A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Rui; Zhang, Rui; Lu, Cuixian; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Jinhai; Lu, Xiaochun

    2017-03-03

    In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY) 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2-3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR) corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK) and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC) and Differential Code Bias (DCB) values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

  9. Varying applicability of four different satellite-derived soil moisture products to global gridded crop model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Toru; Iizumi, Toshichika; Okada, Masashi; Nishimori, Motoki; Grünwald, Thomas; Prueger, John; Cescatti, Alessandro; Korres, Wolfgang; Schmidt, Marius; Carrara, Arnaud; Loubet, Benjamin; Ceschia, Eric

    2016-06-01

    Satellite-derived daily surface soil moisture products have been increasingly available, but their applicability to global gridded crop model (GGCM) evaluation is unclear. This study compares four different soil moisture products with the flux tower site observation at 18 cropland sites across the world where either of maize, soybean, rice and wheat is grown. These products include the first and second versions of Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (CCISM-1 and CCISM-2) datasets distributed by the European Space Agency and two different AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System)-derived soil moisture datasets, separately provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (AMSRE-J) and U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (AMSRE-N). The comparison demonstrates varying reliability of these products in representing major characteristics of temporal pattern of cropland soil moisture by product and crop. Possible reasons for the varying reliability include the differences in sensors, algorithms, bands and criteria used when estimating soil moisture. Both the CCISM-1 and CCISM-2 products appear the most reliable for soybean- and wheat-growing area. However, the percentage of valid data of these products is always lower than other products due to relatively strict criteria when merging data derived from multiple sources, although the CCISM-2 product has much more data with valid retrievals than the CCISM-1 product. The reliability of the AMSRE-J product is the highest for maize- and rice-growing areas and comparable to or slightly lower than the CCISM products for soybean- and wheat-growing areas. The AMSRE-N is the least reliable in most location-crop combinations. The reliability of the products for rice-growing area is far lower than that of other upland crops likely due to the extensive use of irrigation and patch distribution of rice paddy in the area examined here. We conclude that the CCISM-1, CCISM-2 and AMSRE

  10. Linking river flow regimes to riparian plant guilds: a community-wide modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lytle, David A; Merritt, David M; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Olden, Julian D; Reynolds, Lindsay V

    2017-06-01

    Modeling riparian plant dynamics along rivers is complicated by the fact that plants have different edaphic and hydrologic requirements at different life stages. With intensifying human demands for water and continued human alteration of rivers, there is a growing need for predicting responses of vegetation to flow alteration, including responses related to climate change and river flow management. We developed a coupled structured population model that combines stage-specific responses of plant guilds with specific attributes of river hydrologic regime. The model uses information on the vital rates of guilds as they relate to different hydrologic conditions (flood, drought, and baseflow), but deliberately omits biotic interactions from the structure (interaction neutral). Our intent was to (1) consolidate key vital rates concerning plant population dynamics and to incorporate these data into a quantitative framework, (2) determine whether complex plant stand dynamics, including biotic interactions, can be predicted from basic vital rates and river hydrology, and (3) project how altered flow regimes might affect riparian communities. We illustrated the approach using five flow-response guilds that encompass much of the river floodplain community: hydroriparian tree, xeroriparian shrub, hydroriparian shrub, mesoriparian meadow, and desert shrub. We also developed novel network-based tools for predicting community-wide effects of climate-driven shifts and deliberately altered flow regimes. The model recovered known patterns of hydroriparian tree vs. xeroriparian shrub dominance, including the relative proportion of these two guilds as a function of river flow modification. By simulating flow alteration scenarios ranging from increased drought to shifts in flood timing, the model predicted that mature hydroriparian forest should be most abundant near the observed natural flow regime. Multiguild sensitivity analysis identified substantial network connectivity (many

  11. A three-dimensional numerical model for linking community-wide vapour risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustafa, Nizar; Mumford, Kevin G.; Gerhard, Jason I.; O'Carroll, Denis M.

    2014-01-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) numerical model that couples contaminant transport in the saturated zone to vapour transport in the vadose zone and vapour intrusion into buildings was developed. Coupling these processes allows the simulation of vapour intrusion, arising from volatilization at the water table, associated with temporally and spatially variable groundwater plumes. In particular, the model was designed to permit, for the first time, 3D simulations of risk at receptors located in the wider community (i.e., kilometre scale) surrounding a contaminated site. The model can account for heterogeneous distributions of permeability, fraction organic carbon, sorption and biodegradation in the vadose and saturated zones. The model formulation, based upon integration of a number of widely accepted models, is presented along with verification and benchmarking tests. In addition, a number of exploratory simulations of benzene and naphthalene transport in a 1000 m long domain (aquifer cross-section: 500 m × 14 m) are presented, which employed conservative assumptions consistent with the development of regulatory guidance. Under these conservative conditions, these simulations demonstrated, for example, that whether houses in the community were predicted to be impacted by groundwater and indoor air concentrations exceeding regulatory standards strongly depended on their distance downgradient from the source and lateral distance from the plume centreline. In addition, this study reveals that the degree of reduction in source concentration (i.e., remediation) required to achieve compliance with standards is less if the risk receptor is in the wider community than at the site boundary. However, these example scenarios suggest that, even considering community receptors, sources with initially high concentrations still required substantial remediation (i.e., > 99% reductions in source concentration). Overall, this work provides insights and a new tool for considering the

  12. Hardware-in-the-loop simulation technology of wide-band radar targets based on scattering center model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Hao; Pan Minghai; Lu Zhijun

    2015-01-01

    Hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) simulation technology can verify and evaluate the radar by simulating the radio frequency environment in an anechoic chamber. The HWIL simulation technology of wide-band radar targets can accurately generate wide-band radar target echo which stands for the radar target scattering characteristics and pulse modulation of radar transmitting sig-nal. This paper analyzes the wide-band radar target scattering properties first. Since the responses of target are composed of many separate scattering centers, the target scattering characteristic is restructured by scattering centers model. Based on the scattering centers model of wide-band radar target, the wide-band radar target echo modeling and the simulation method are discussed. The wide-band radar target echo is reconstructed in real-time by convoluting the transmitting signal to the target scattering parameters. Using the digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) system, the HWIL simulation of wide-band radar target echo with high accuracy can be actualized. A typical wide-band radar target simulation is taken to demonstrate the preferable simulation effect of the reconstruction method of wide-band radar target echo. Finally, the radar target time-domain echo and high-resolution range profile (HRRP) are given. The results show that the HWIL simulation gives a high-resolution range distribution of wide-band radar target scattering centers.

  13. Olfactory ability and object memory in three mouse models of varying body weight, metabolic hormones, and adiposity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Kristal R; Godbey, Steven J; Thiebaud, Nicolas; Fadool, Debra Ann

    2012-10-10

    Physiological and nutritional state can modify sensory ability and perception through hormone signaling. Obesity and related metabolic disorders present a chronic imbalance in hormonal signaling that could impact sensory systems. In the olfactory system, external chemical cues are transduced into electrical signals to encode information. It is becoming evident that this system can also detect internal chemical cues in the form of molecules of energy homeostasis and endocrine hormones, whereby neurons of the olfactory system are modulated to change animal behavior towards olfactory cues. We hypothesized that chronic imbalance in hormonal signaling and energy homeostasis due to obesity would thereby disrupt olfactory behaviors in mice. To test this idea, we utilized three mouse models of varying body weight, metabolic hormones, and visceral adiposity - 1) C57BL6/J mice maintained on a condensed-milk based, moderately high-fat diet (MHF) of 32% fat for 6 months as the diet-induced obesity model, 2) an obesity-resistant, lean line of mice due to a gene-targeted deletion of a voltage-dependent potassium channel (Kv 1.3-null), and 3) a genetic model of obesity as a result of a gene-targeted deletion of the melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R-null). Diet-induced obese (DIO) mice failed to find a fatty-scented hidden peanut butter cracker, based solely on olfactory cues, any faster than an unscented hidden marble, initially suggesting general anosmia. However, when these DIO mice were challenged to find a sweet-scented hidden chocolate candy, they had no difficulty. Furthermore, DIO mice were able to discriminate between fatty acids that differ by a single double bond and are components of the MHF diet (linoleic and oleic acid) in a habituation-dishabituation paradigm. Obesity-resistant, Kv1.3-null mice exhibited no change in scented object retrieval when placed on the MHF-diet, nor did they perform differently than wild-type mice in parallel habituation-dishabituation paradigms

  14. Enola Gay: an integrated modelling optical toolbox applied to a wide-field telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipani, P.; Perrotta, F.

    2008-07-01

    The integrated modelling approach is fundamental in telescopes design where it is necessary to merge different disciplines together. This paper describes the integration of optical ray-tracing capabilities within the Matlab computational environment. This approach allows to write automatic procedures to implement a huge number of computations, that are very unpractical to perform in interactive mode by ray tracing software packages. Data produced by computations are stored and automatically analyzed. One of the main benefits from this approach comes from the traceability of the work, that is intrinsically impossible when the optical designer works in interactive mode. The right procedure is built and tuned just the first time and the computation software is available for inspection and check. Furthermore computations and results are easily reproducible simply re-running Matlab scripts. An automatic approach is especially helpful in wide-field telescope projects where the optical quality has to be studied over a wide field of view. This leads to repeat the same computations many times in a number of fields. In interactive mode this would cause a significant waste of optical designer time to repeat many times the same manual procedures. The solution proposed here allows to save time and prevent occasional mistakes.

  15. An architecture for modeling and decision support base the World Wide Web%基于World Wide Web的决策支持模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This paper discuss a distributed decision support and modeling environment over the World Wide Web. Decision Net build a birdge from consumers to providers via the use of brokers.Decision Net would facilitate developers of decision technologies in making their technologies available for access and execution over World Wide Web.%文中通过对基于World Wide Web(WWW)上建立决策支持电子环境的研究, 利用中介代理的概念,在用户和技术的拥有者之间架起了一座桥梁,构成了决策网 ,从而使WWW上的决策技术得到共享。讨论了其结构、性能和各种功能,为进一步研 究WWW上的决策支持提供了一条途径。

  16. Modeling of the ITER-like wide-angle infrared thermography view of JET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumeunier, M-H; Firdaouss, M; Travère, J-M; Loarer, T; Gauthier, E; Martin, V; Chabaud, D; Humbert, E

    2012-10-01

    Infrared (IR) thermography systems are mandatory to ensure safe plasma operation in fusion devices. However, IR measurements are made much more complicated in metallic environment because of the spurious contributions of the reflected fluxes. This paper presents a full predictive photonic simulation able to assess accurately the surface temperature measurement with classical IR thermography from a given plasma scenario and by taking into account the optical properties of PFCs materials. This simulation has been carried out the ITER-like wide angle infrared camera view of JET in comparing with experimental data. The consequences and the effects of the low emissivity and the bidirectional reflectivity distribution function used in the model for the metallic PFCs on the contribution of the reflected flux in the analysis are discussed.

  17. Modeling of the ITER-like wide-angle infrared thermography view of JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aumeunier, M.-H. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); OPTIS, ZE de La Farlede, F-83078 Toulon Cedex 9 (France); Firdaouss, M.; Travere, J.-M.; Loarer, T.; Gauthier, E.; Martin, V. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-Lez-Durance (France); Chabaud, D.; Humbert, E. [OPTIS, ZE de La Farlede, F-83078 Toulon Cedex 9 (France); Collaboration: JET-EFDA Contributors

    2012-10-15

    Infrared (IR) thermography systems are mandatory to ensure safe plasma operation in fusion devices. However, IR measurements are made much more complicated in metallic environment because of the spurious contributions of the reflected fluxes. This paper presents a full predictive photonic simulation able to assess accurately the surface temperature measurement with classical IR thermography from a given plasma scenario and by taking into account the optical properties of PFCs materials. This simulation has been carried out the ITER-like wide angle infrared camera view of JET in comparing with experimental data. The consequences and the effects of the low emissivity and the bidirectional reflectivity distribution function used in the model for the metallic PFCs on the contribution of the reflected flux in the analysis are discussed.

  18. Mathematical Modeling of Local Scour at Slender and Wide Bridge Piers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef I. Hafez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Most existing equations for predicting local scour at bridge piers suffer from overprediction of the scour depths which results in higher foundation costs. To tackle this problem, a mathematical model for predicting bridge pier scour is developed herein based on an energy balance theory. The present study equation was compared to commonly used bridge scour equations using scour field data in USA. The developed equation has several advantages among which we have the following: it adds to the understanding of the physics of bridge pier scour, is valid for slender and wide piers, does not suffer from overprediction of scour depths, addresses clear water and live bed scour, and includes the effects of various characteristics of the bed material such as specific gravity (or density, porosity, size, and angle of repose. In addition, the developed equation accounts for the debris effect and aids in the design of scour mitigation methods such as collars, side bars, slots, and pier protective piles.

  19. TRANSPORT PLANNING MODEL FOR WIDE AREA RECYCLING SYSTEM OF INDUSTRIAL WASTE PLASTIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Yasuhiro; Kawamura, Hisashi; Koizumi, Akira; Mogi, Satoshi

    To date, the majority of industrial waste plastic generated in an urban city has been processed into landfill. However, it is now necessary to actively utilize that plastic as a useful resource to create a recycling society with a low environment influence. In order to construct a reasonable recycling system, it is necessary to address the "transportation problem," which means determining how much industrial waste plastic is to be transported to what location. With the goal of eliminating landfill processing, this study considers a transport planning model for industrial waste plastic applying linear programming. The results of running optimized calculations under given scenarios clarified not only the possibilities for recycle processing in the Metropolitan area, but also the validity of wide area recycling system.

  20. Prowess – A Software Model for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Visweshwar Ram Marthi;

    2017-03-01

    One of the scientific objectives of the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA) is to observe the redshifted Hi emission from $z \\sim 3.35$. Although predictions spell out optimistic outcomes in reasonable integration times, these studies were based purely on analytical assumptions, without accounting for limiting systematics. A software model for OWFA has been developed with a view to understanding the instrument-induced systematics, by describing a complete software model for the instrument. This model has been implemented through a suite of programs, together called Prowess, which has been conceived with the dual role of an emulator as well as observatory data analysis software. The programming philosophy followed in building Prowess enables a general user to define an own set of functions and add new functionality. This paper describes a co-ordinate system suitable for OWFA in which the baselines are defined. The foregrounds are simulated from their angular power spectra. The visibilities are then computed from the foregrounds. These visibilities are then used for further processing, such as calibration and power spectrum estimation. The package allows for rich visualization features in multiple output formats in an interactive fashion, giving the user an intuitive feel for the data. Prowess has been extensively used for numerical predictions of the foregrounds for the OWFA \\HI~ experiment.

  1. Status of GPCR modeling and docking as reflected by community-wide GPCR Dock 2010 assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kufareva, Irina; Rueda, Manuel; Katritch, Vsevolod; Stevens, Raymond C; Abagyan, Ruben

    2011-08-10

    The community-wide GPCR Dock assessment is conducted to evaluate the status of molecular modeling and ligand docking for human G protein-coupled receptors. The present round of the assessment was based on the recent structures of dopamine D3 and CXCR4 chemokine receptors bound to small molecule antagonists and CXCR4 with a synthetic cyclopeptide. Thirty-five groups submitted their receptor-ligand complex structure predictions prior to the release of the crystallographic coordinates. With closely related homology modeling templates, as for dopamine D3 receptor, and with incorporation of biochemical and QSAR data, modern computational techniques predicted complex details with accuracy approaching experimental. In contrast, CXCR4 complexes that had less-characterized interactions and only distant homology to the known GPCR structures still remained very challenging. The assessment results provide guidance for modeling and crystallographic communities in method development and target selection for further expansion of the structural coverage of the GPCR universe. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Development of a plant-wide dynamic model of an integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattacharyya, D.; Turton, R.; Zitney, S.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation, development of a plant-wide dynamic model of an advanced Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant with CO2 capture will be discussed. The IGCC reference plant generates 640 MWe of net power using Illinois No.6 coal as the feed. The plant includes an entrained, downflow, General Electric Energy (GEE) gasifier with a radiant syngas cooler (RSC), a two-stage water gas shift (WGS) conversion process, and two advanced 'F' class combustion turbines partially integrated with an elevated-pressure air separation unit (ASU). A subcritical steam cycle is considered for heat recovery steam generation. Syngas is selectively cleaned by a SELEXOL acid gas removal (AGR) process. Sulfur is recovered using a two-train Claus unit with tail gas recycle to the AGR. A multistage intercooled compressor is used for compressing CO2 to the pressure required for sequestration. Using Illinois No.6 coal, the reference plant generates 640 MWe of net power. The plant-wide steady-state and dynamic IGCC simulations have been generated using the Aspen Plus{reg_sign} and Aspen Plus Dynamics{reg_sign} process simulators, respectively. The model is generated based on the Case 2 IGCC configuration detailed in the study available in the NETL website1. The GEE gasifier is represented with a restricted equilibrium reactor model where the temperature approach to equilibrium for individual reactions can be modified based on the experimental data. In this radiant-only configuration, the syngas from the Radiant Syngas Cooler (RSC) is quenched in a scrubber. The blackwater from the scrubber bottom is further cleaned in the blackwater treatment plant. The cleaned water is returned back to the scrubber and also used for slurry preparation. The acid gas from the sour water stripper (SWS) is sent to the Claus plant. The syngas from the scrubber passes through a sour shift process. The WGS reactors are modeled as adiabatic plug flow reactors with rigorous kinetics based on

  3. Correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets and mixed-asset portfolio VaR measurements in a dynamic view: An application based on time varying copula models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yingying; Gong, Pu; Zhou, Xiang

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we apply time varying Gaussian and SJC copula models to study the correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets: financial (stock), real estate and commodity (gold) assets in China firstly. Then we study the dynamic mixed-asset portfolio risk through VaR measurement based on the correlations computed by the time varying copulas. This dynamic VaR-copula measurement analysis has never been used on mixed-asset portfolios. The results show the time varying estimations fit much better than the static models, not only for the correlations and risk contagion based on time varying copulas, but also for the VaR-copula measurement. The time varying VaR-SJC copula models are more accurate than VaR-Gaussian copula models when measuring more risky portfolios with higher confidence levels. The major findings suggest that real estate and gold play a role on portfolio risk diversification and there exist risk contagion and flight to quality between mixed-assets when extreme cases happen, but if we take different mixed-asset portfolio strategies with the varying of time and environment, the portfolio risk will be reduced.

  4. Influenza H1N1 and the world wide economic crisis--a model of coherence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperling, W; Biermann, T

    2009-11-01

    A recent published model described the phenomenon of a global panic reaction (GPR) on the stock markets based on two remarkable stock market crashes in the months of January and March [Sperling W, Bleich S, Reulbach U, Black Monday on stock markets throughout the world - a new phenomenon of collective panic disorder? A psychiatric approach. Med Hypotheses; 2008]. This model was completed by a therapeutic approach following typical elements of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) [Sperling W, Biermann T, Maler JM, Global panic reaction - a therapeutic approach to a world-wide economic crisis. Med Hypotheses; 2009]. The phenomenon of a global panic reaction due to economic crises seems to have even larger implications on human health as well. It is well known that acute and chronic distress is competent to suppress the immune system by various mechanisms that are discussed in detail. This global panic reaction - that has also been observed in former times - might therefore be responsible for the new variation of recent influenza pandemic coming from Mexico.

  5. Incorporating biological pathways via a Markov random field model in genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Chen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS examine a large number of markers across the genome to identify associations between genetic variants and disease. Most published studies examine only single markers, which may be less informative than considering multiple markers and multiple genes jointly because genes may interact with each other to affect disease risk. Much knowledge has been accumulated in the literature on biological pathways and interactions. It is conceivable that appropriate incorporation of such prior knowledge may improve the likelihood of making genuine discoveries. Although a number of methods have been developed recently to prioritize genes using prior biological knowledge, such as pathways, most methods treat genes in a specific pathway as an exchangeable set without considering the topological structure of a pathway. However, how genes are related with each other in a pathway may be very informative to identify association signals. To make use of the connectivity information among genes in a pathway in GWAS analysis, we propose a Markov Random Field (MRF model to incorporate pathway topology for association analysis. We show that the conditional distribution of our MRF model takes on a simple logistic regression form, and we propose an iterated conditional modes algorithm as well as a decision theoretic approach for statistical inference of each gene's association with disease. Simulation studies show that our proposed framework is more effective to identify genes associated with disease than a single gene-based method. We also illustrate the usefulness of our approach through its applications to a real data example.

  6. A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Philipp

    Full Text Available Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression. A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

  7. Hierarchical modeling of genome-wide Short Tandem Repeat (STR) markers infers native American prehistory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Cecil M

    2010-02-01

    This study examines a genome-wide dataset of 678 Short Tandem Repeat loci characterized in 444 individuals representing 29 Native American populations as well as the Tundra Netsi and Yakut populations from Siberia. Using these data, the study tests four current hypotheses regarding the hierarchical distribution of neutral genetic variation in native South American populations: (1) the western region of South America harbors more variation than the eastern region of South America, (2) Central American and western South American populations cluster exclusively, (3) populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan and Equatorial-Tucanoan language stock emerge as a group within an otherwise South American clade, (4) Chibchan-Paezan populations in Central America emerge together at the tips of the Chibchan-Paezan cluster. This study finds that hierarchical models with the best fit place Central American populations, and populations speaking the Chibchan-Paezan language stock, at a basal position or separated from the South American group, which is more consistent with a serial founder effect into South America than that previously described. Western (Andean) South America is found to harbor similar levels of variation as eastern (Equatorial-Tucanoan and Ge-Pano-Carib) South America, which is inconsistent with an initial west coast migration into South America. Moreover, in all relevant models, the estimates of genetic diversity within geographic regions suggest a major bottleneck or founder effect occurring within the North American subcontinent, before the peopling of Central and South America. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Earth's crust model of the South-Okhotsk Basin by wide-angle OBS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashubin, Sergey N.; Petrov, Oleg V.; Rybalka, Alexander V.; Milshtein, Evgenia D.; Shokalsky, Sergey P.; Verba, Mark L.; Petrov, Evgeniy O.

    2017-07-01

    Deep seismic studies of the Sea of Okhotsk region started in late 1950s. Since that time, wide-angle reflection and refraction data on more than two dozen profiles were acquired. Only five of those profiles either crossed or entered the deep-water area of the South-Okhotsk Basin (also known as the Kuril Basin or the South-Okhotsk Deep-Water Trough). Only P-waves were used to develop velocity-interface models in all the early research. Thus, all seismic and geodynamic models of the Okhotsk region were based only on the information on compressional waves. Nevertheless, the use of Vp/Vs ratio in addition to P-wave velocity allows discriminating felsic and mafic crustal layers with similar Vp values. In 2007 the Russian seismic service company Sevmorgeo acquired multi-component data with ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) along the 1700-km-long north-south 2-DV-M Profile. Only P-wave information was used previously to develop models for the entire profile. In this study, a multi-wave processing, analysis, and interpretation of the OBS data are presented for the 550-km-long southern segment of this Profile that crosses the deep-water South-Okhotsk Basin. Within this segment 50 seismometers were deployed with nominal OBS station spacing of 10-12 km. Shot point spacing was 250 m. Not only primary P-waves and S-waves but also multiples and P-S, S-P converted waves were analyzed in this study to constrain velocity-interface models by means of travel time forward modeling. In offshore deep seismic studies, thick water layer hinders an estimation of velocities in the sedimentary cover and in the upper consolidated crust. Primarily, this is due to the fact that refracted waves propagating in low-velocity solid upper layers interfere with high-amplitude direct water wave. However, in multi-component measurements with ocean bottom seismometers, it is possible to use converted and multiple waves for velocity estimations in these layers. Consequently, one can obtain P- and S

  9. Body-wide hierarchical fuzzy modeling, recognition, and delineation of anatomy in medical images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udupa, Jayaram K; Odhner, Dewey; Zhao, Liming; Tong, Yubing; Matsumoto, Monica M S; Ciesielski, Krzysztof C; Falcao, Alexandre X; Vaideeswaran, Pavithra; Ciesielski, Victoria; Saboury, Babak; Mohammadianrasanani, Syedmehrdad; Sin, Sanghun; Arens, Raanan; Torigian, Drew A

    2014-07-01

    To make Quantitative Radiology (QR) a reality in radiological practice, computerized body-wide Automatic Anatomy Recognition (AAR) becomes essential. With the goal of building a general AAR system that is not tied to any specific organ system, body region, or image modality, this paper presents an AAR methodology for localizing and delineating all major organs in different body regions based on fuzzy modeling ideas and a tight integration of fuzzy models with an Iterative Relative Fuzzy Connectedness (IRFC) delineation algorithm. The methodology consists of five main steps: (a) gathering image data for both building models and testing the AAR algorithms from patient image sets existing in our health system; (b) formulating precise definitions of each body region and organ and delineating them following these definitions; (c) building hierarchical fuzzy anatomy models of organs for each body region; (d) recognizing and locating organs in given images by employing the hierarchical models; and (e) delineating the organs following the hierarchy. In Step (c), we explicitly encode object size and positional relationships into the hierarchy and subsequently exploit this information in object recognition in Step (d) and delineation in Step (e). Modality-independent and dependent aspects are carefully separated in model encoding. At the model building stage, a learning process is carried out for rehearsing an optimal threshold-based object recognition method. The recognition process in Step (d) starts from large, well-defined objects and proceeds down the hierarchy in a global to local manner. A fuzzy model-based version of the IRFC algorithm is created by naturally integrating the fuzzy model constraints into the delineation algorithm. The AAR system is tested on three body regions - thorax (on CT), abdomen (on CT and MRI), and neck (on MRI and CT) - involving a total of over 35 organs and 130 data sets (the total used for model building and testing). The training and

  10. An Intelligent Optimal Genetic Model to Investigate the User Usage Behaviour on World Wide Web

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V.R. Maheswara Rao

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The unexpected wide spread use of WWW and dynamically increasing nature of the web creates new challenges in the web mining since the data in the web inherently unlabelled, incomplete, non linear, and heterogeneous. The investigation of user usage behaviour on WWW is real time problem which involves multiple conflicting measures of performance. These measures make not only computational intensive butalso needs to the possibility of be unable to find the exact solution. Unfortunately, the conventional methods are limited to optimization problems due to the absence of semantic certainty and presence of human intervention. In handling such data and overcome the limitations of conventional methodologies it is necessary to use a soft computing model that can work intelligently to attain optimal solution. To achieve the optimized solution for investigating the web user usage behaviour, the authors in the present paper proposes an Intelligent Optimal Genetic Model, IOGM, which is designed as an optimization tool based on the concept of natural genetic systems. Initially, IOGM comprise a set of individual solutions or chromosomes called the initial population. Later, biologically inspired operators create a new and potentially better population. Finally, by the theory of evolution, survive only optimal individuals from the population and then generate the next biological population. This process is terminated as when an acceptable optimal set of visited patterns is found or after fixed time limit. Additionally, IOGM strengthen by its ability to estimate the optimal stopping time of process. The proposed soft computing model ensures the identifiable features like learning, adaptability, self-maintenance and self-improvement. To validate the proposed system, several experiments were conducted and results proven this are claimed in this paper

  11. AN INTELLIGENT OPTIMAL GENETIC MODEL TO INVESTIGATE THE USER USAGE BEHAVIOUR ON WORLD WIDE WEB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V.R. Maheswara Rao

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The unexpected wide spread use of WWW and dynamically increasing nature of the web creates new challenges in the web mining since the data in the web inherently unlabelled, incomplete, non linear, and heterogeneous. The investigation of user usage behaviour on WWW is real time problem which involves multiple conflicting measures of performance. These measures make not only computational intensive but also needs to the possibility of be unable to find the exact solution. Unfortunately, the conventional methods are limited to optimization problems due to the absence of semantic certainty and presence of human intervention. In handling such data and overcome the limitations of conventional methodologies it is necessary to use a soft computing model that can work intelligently to attain optimal solution. To achieve the optimized solution for investigating the web user usage behaviour, the authors in the present paper proposes an Intelligent Optimal Genetic Model, IOGM, which is designed as an optimization tool based on the concept of natural genetic systems. Initially, IOGM comprise a set of individual solutions or chromosomes called the initial population. Later, biologically inspired operators create a new and potentially better population. Finally, by the theory of evolution, survive only optimal individuals from the population and then generate the next biological population. This process is terminated as when an acceptable optimal set of visited patterns is found or after fixed time limit. Additionally, IOGM strengthen by its ability to estimate the optimal stopping time of process. The proposed soft computing model ensures the identifiable features like learning, adaptability, self-maintenance and self-improvement. To validate the proposed system, several experiments were conducted and results proven this are claimed in this paper.

  12. Epigenomic model of cardiac enhancers with application to genome wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Avinash Das; Aniba, Radhouane; Chang, Yen-Pei Christy; Hannenhalli, Sridhar

    2013-01-01

    Mammalian gene regulation is often mediated by distal enhancer elements, in particular, for tissue specific and developmental genes. Computational identification of enhancers is difficult because they do not exhibit clear location preference relative to their target gene and also because they lack clearly distinguishing genomic features. This represents a major challenge in deciphering transcriptional regulation. Recent ChIP-seq based genome-wide investigation of epigenomic modifications have revealed that enhancers are often enriched for certain epigenomic marks. Here we utilize the epigenomic data in human heart tissue along with validated human heart enhancers to develop a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model of cardiac enhancers. Cross-validation classification accuracy of our model was 84% and 92% on positive and negative sets respectively with ROC AUC = 0.92. More importantly, while P300 binding has been used as gold standard for enhancers, our model can distinguish P300-bound validated enhancers from other P300-bound regions that failed to exhibit enhancer activity in transgenic mouse. While GWAS studies reveal polymorphic regions associated with certain phenotypes, they do not immediately provide causality. Next, we hypothesized that genomic regions containing a GWAS SNP associated with a cardiac phenotype might contain another SNP in a cardiac enhancer, which presumably mediates the phenotype. Starting with a comprehensive set of SNPs associated with cardiac phenotypes in GWAS studies, we scored other SNPs in LD with the GWAS SNP according to its probability of being an enhancer and choose one with best score in the LD as enhancer. We found that our predicted enhancers are enriched for known cardiac transcriptional regulator motifs and are likely to regulate the nearby gene. Importantly, these tendencies are more favorable for the predicted enhancers compared with an approach that uses P300 binding as a marker of enhancer activity.

  13. Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Joanne H; Pappas, Derek; De Jager, Philip L; Pelletier, Daniel; de Bakker, Paul Iw; Kappos, Ludwig; Polman, Chris H; Chibnik, Lori B; Hafler, David A; Matthews, Paul M; Hauser, Stephen L; Baranzini, Sergio E; Oksenberg, Jorge R

    2011-01-18

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant

  14. Various Approaches to Forward and Inverse Wide-Angle Seismic Modelling Tested on Data from DOBRE-4 Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janik Tomasz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The interpretation of seismic refraction and wide angle reflection data usually involves the creation of a velocity model based on an inverse or forward modelling of the travel times of crustal and mantle phases using the ray theory approach. The modelling codes differ in terms of model parameterization, data used for modelling, regularization of the result, etc. It is helpful to know the capabilities, advantages and limitations of the code used compared to others.

  15. Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, David C.; Waller, Lance A.

    2009-03-01

    In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.

  16. Testing Quantum Models of Conjunction Fallacy on the World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; Arguëlles, Jonito Aerts; Beltran, Lester; Beltran, Lyneth; de Bianchi, Massimiliano Sassoli; Sozzo, Sandro; Veloz, Tomas

    2017-01-01

    The `conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches have been put forward: the first assumes that respondents use a two-step sequential reasoning and that the fallacy results from the presence of `question order effects'; the second assumes that respondents evaluate the cognitive situation as a whole and that the fallacy results from the `emergence of new meanings', as an `effect of overextension' in the conceptual conjunction. Thus, the question arises as to determine whether and to what extent conjunction fallacies would result from `order effects' or, instead, from `emergence effects'. To help clarify this situation, we propose to use the World Wide Web as an `information space' that can be interrogated both in a sequential and non-sequential way, to test these two quantum approaches. We find that `emergence effects', and not `order effects', should be considered the main cognitive mechanism producing the observed conjunction fallacies.

  17. Proto-Model of an Infrared Wide-Field Off-Axis Telescope

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Sanghyuk; Chang, Seunghyuk; Kim, Geon Hee; Yang, Sun Choel; Kim, Myung Sang; Lee, Sungho; Lee, Hanshin; 10.5303/JKAS.2010.43.5.169

    2010-01-01

    We develop a proto-model of an off-axis reflective telescope for infrared wide-field observations based on the design of Schwarzschild-Chang type telescope. With only two mirrors, this design achieves an entrance pupil diameter of 50 mm and an effective focal length of 100 mm. We can apply this design to a mid-infrared telescope with a field of view of 8 deg X 8 deg. In spite of the substantial advantages of off-axis telescopes in the infrared compared to refractive or on-axis reflective telescopes, it is known to be difficult to align the mirrors in off-axis systems because of their asymmetric structures. Off-axis mirrors of our telescope are manufactured at the Korea Basic Science Institute (KBSI). We analyze the fabricated mirror surfaces by fitting polynomial functions to the measured data. We accomplish alignment of this two-mirror off-axis system using a ray tracing method. A simple imaging test is performed to compare a pinhole image with a simulated prediction.

  18. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  19. Modeling time-varying growth using a generalized von Bertalanffy model with application to bloater (Coregonus hoyi) growth dynamics in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szalai, Emily B.; Fleischer, Guy W.; Bence, James R.

    2003-01-01

    A concurrent increase in lakewide abundance and decrease in size-at-age of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan have suggested density-dependent growth regulation. We investigated these temporal patterns by fitting a dynamic von Bertalanffy model and length–weight relationship with time-varying parameters to mean length- and weight-at-ages (ages 1–7) from annual surveys (1965-–1999). We modeled yearling length, asymptotic size (L‰), and the parameters of a power relationship between mean weight and mean length (α and β) as changing slowly over time using a random walk model. The Brody growth coefficient (k) was modeled as a linear function of L‰ with year-specific random deviations. Our results support a positive relationship between L‰ and k, indicating that under conditions supporting larger asymptotic lengths, individuals approach the asymptote more rapidly. We explored the relationship between year-specific growth parameters and indices of lakewide bloater abundance and found evidence of density-dependent growth. However, in the most recent years, L‰ and yearling length have remained low in Lake Michigan despite low bloater abundances, suggesting the occurrence of a fundamental shift in the food web.

  20. Diagnosis of ulcerative colitis before onset of inflammation by multivariate modeling of genome-wide gene expression data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørgen; Gerds, Thomas A; Seidelin, Jakob B

    2009-01-01

    biopsies from 78 patients were included. A diagnostic model was derived with the random forest method based on 71 biopsies from 60 patients. The model-internal out-of-bag performance measure yielded perfect classification. Furthermore, the model was validated in independent 18 noninflamed biopsies from 18...... of random forest modeling of genome-wide gene expression data for distinguishing quiescent and active UC colonic mucosa versus control and CD colonic mucosa.(Inflamm Bowel Dis 2009)....

  1. A Modified Johnson-Cook Model for Advanced High-Strength Steels Over a Wide Range of Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qingdong, Zhang; Qiang, Cao; Xiaofeng, Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) is widely used in automotive industry. In order to investigate the mechanical behaviors of AHSS over a wide range of temperatures, quasi-static tensile experiments were conducted at the temperatures from 298 to 1073 K on a Gleeble-3500 thermo-simulation machine. The results show that flow behaviors are affected by testing temperature significantly. In order to describe the flow features of AHSS, the Johnson-Cook (JC) model is employed. By introducing polynomial functions to consider the effects of temperature on hardening behavior, the JC model is modified and used to predict flow behavior of AHSS at different experimental conditions. The accuracy of the modified JC model is verified and the predicted flow stress is in good agreement with experimental results, which confirms that the modified JC model can give an accurate and precise estimate over a wide range of temperatures.

  2. First WNK4-hypokalemia animal model identified by genome-wide association in Burmese cats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Gandolfi

    Full Text Available Burmese is an old and popular cat breed, however, several health concerns, such as hypokalemia and a craniofacial defect, are prevalent, endangering the general health of the breed. Hypokalemia, a subnormal serum potassium ion concentration ([K(+], most often occurs as a secondary problem but can occur as a primary problem, such as hypokalaemic periodic paralysis in humans, and as feline hypokalaemic periodic polymyopathy primarily in Burmese. The most characteristic clinical sign of hypokalemia in Burmese is a skeletal muscle weakness that is frequently episodic in nature, either generalized, or sometimes localized to the cervical and thoracic limb girdle muscles. Burmese hypokalemia is suspected to be a single locus autosomal recessive trait. A genome wide case-control study using the illumina Infinium Feline 63K iSelect DNA array was performed using 35 cases and 25 controls from the Burmese breed that identified a locus on chromosome E1 associated with hypokalemia. Within approximately 1.2 Mb of the highest associated SNP, two candidate genes were identified, KCNH4 and WNK4. Direct sequencing of the genes revealed a nonsense mutation, producing a premature stop codon within WNK4 (c.2899C>T, leading to a truncated protein that lacks the C-terminal coiled-coil domain and the highly conserved Akt1/SGK phosphorylation site. All cases were homozygous for the mutation. Although the exact mechanism causing hypokalemia has not been determined, extrapolation from the homologous human and mouse genes suggests the mechanism may involve a potassium-losing nephropathy. A genetic test to screen for the genetic defect within the active breeding population has been developed, which should lead to eradication of the mutation and improved general health within the breed. Moreover, the identified mutation may help clarify the role of the protein in K⁺ regulation and the cat represents the first animal model for WNK4-associated hypokalemia.

  3. First WNK4-hypokalemia animal model identified by genome-wide association in Burmese cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandolfi, Barbara; Gruffydd-Jones, Timothy J; Malik, Richard; Cortes, Alejandro; Jones, Boyd R; Helps, Chris R; Prinzenberg, Eva M; Erhardt, George; Lyons, Leslie A

    2012-01-01

    Burmese is an old and popular cat breed, however, several health concerns, such as hypokalemia and a craniofacial defect, are prevalent, endangering the general health of the breed. Hypokalemia, a subnormal serum potassium ion concentration ([K(+)]), most often occurs as a secondary problem but can occur as a primary problem, such as hypokalaemic periodic paralysis in humans, and as feline hypokalaemic periodic polymyopathy primarily in Burmese. The most characteristic clinical sign of hypokalemia in Burmese is a skeletal muscle weakness that is frequently episodic in nature, either generalized, or sometimes localized to the cervical and thoracic limb girdle muscles. Burmese hypokalemia is suspected to be a single locus autosomal recessive trait. A genome wide case-control study using the illumina Infinium Feline 63K iSelect DNA array was performed using 35 cases and 25 controls from the Burmese breed that identified a locus on chromosome E1 associated with hypokalemia. Within approximately 1.2 Mb of the highest associated SNP, two candidate genes were identified, KCNH4 and WNK4. Direct sequencing of the genes revealed a nonsense mutation, producing a premature stop codon within WNK4 (c.2899C>T), leading to a truncated protein that lacks the C-terminal coiled-coil domain and the highly conserved Akt1/SGK phosphorylation site. All cases were homozygous for the mutation. Although the exact mechanism causing hypokalemia has not been determined, extrapolation from the homologous human and mouse genes suggests the mechanism may involve a potassium-losing nephropathy. A genetic test to screen for the genetic defect within the active breeding population has been developed, which should lead to eradication of the mutation and improved general health within the breed. Moreover, the identified mutation may help clarify the role of the protein in K⁺ regulation and the cat represents the first animal model for WNK4-associated hypokalemia.

  4. A simulation of wide area surveillance (WAS) systems and algorithm for digital elevation model (DEM) extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Beato T.

    2010-04-01

    With the advances in focal plane, electronics and memory storage technologies, wide area and persistence surveillance capabilities have become a reality in airborne ISR. A WAS system offers many benefits in comparison with the traditional airborne image capturing systems that provide little data overlap, both in terms of space and time. Unlike a fix-mount surveillance camera, a persistence WAS system can be deployed anywhere as desired, although the platform typically has to be in motion, say circling above an area of interest. Therefore, WAS is a perfect choice for surveillance that can provide near real time capabilities such as change detection and target tracking. However, the performance of a WAS system is still limited by the available technologies: the optics that control the field-of-view, the electronics and mechanical subsystems that control the scanning, the focal plane data throughput, and the dynamics of the platform all play key roles in the success of the system. It is therefore beneficial to develop a simulated version that can capture the essence of the system, in order to help provide insights into the design of an optimized system. We describe an approach to the simulation of a generic WAS system that allows focal plane layouts, scanning patterns, flight paths and platform dynamics to be defined by a user. The system generates simulated image data of the area ground coverage from reference databases (e.g. aerial imagery, and elevation data), based on the sensor model. The simulated data provides a basis for further algorithm development, such as image stitching/mosaic, registration, and geolocation. We also discuss an algorithm to extract the terrain elevation from the simulated data, and to compare that with the original DEM data.

  5. A Model for Program-Wide Assessment of the Effectiveness of Writing Instruction in Science Laboratory Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saitta, Erin K.; Zemliansky, Pavel; Turner, Anna

    2015-01-01

    The authors present a model for program-wide assessment of the effectiveness of writing instruction in a chemistry laboratory course. This model, which involves collaboration between faculty from chemistry, the Writing Across the Curriculum (WAC) program, and the Faculty Center for Teaching and Learning, is based on several theories and…

  6. Benchmark simulation Model no 2 in Matlab-simulink: towards plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vreck, D; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Jeppsson, U

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, implementation of the Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2) within Matlab-Simulink is presented. The BSM2 is developed for plant-wide WWTP control strategy evaluation on a long-term basis. It consists of a pre-treatment process, an activated sludge process and sludge treatment processes. Extended evaluation criteria are proposed for plant-wide control strategy assessment. Default open-loop and closed-loop strategies are also proposed to be used as references with which to compare other control strategies. Simulations indicate that the BM2 is an appropriate tool for plant-wide control strategy evaluation.

  7. The role of the muscarinic system in regulating estradiol secretion varies during the estrous cycle: the hemiovariectomized rat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez Jorge O

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There is evidence that one gonad has functional predominance. The present study analyzed the acute effects of unilateral ovariectomy (ULO and blocking the cholinergic system, by injecting atropine sulfate (ATR, on estradiol (E2 serum concentrations during the estrous cycle. The results indicate that ULO effects on E2 concentrations are asymmetric, vary during the estrous cycle, and partially depend on the cholinergic innervation. Perforation of the left peritoneum resulted in lower E2 serum concentrations in the three stages of the estrous cycle. At proestrus, unilateral or bilateral perforation of the peritoneum resulted in lower E2 serum concentrations. ULO of the right ovary (left ovary in situ resulted in significantly higher E2 concentrations than animals with ULO of the left ovary (right ovary in situ. ATR treatment to ULO rats on D1 resulted in a significant drop of E2 serum concentrations. ULO rats treated with ATR on D2 or P, resulted in an asymmetrical E2 secretion response; when the right ovary remained in situ an increase in E2 was observed, and a decrease when the left ovary remained in situ. The results obtained in the present study suggest that each ovary's ability to compensate the secretion of E2 from the missing ovary is different and varies during the estrous cycle. The results also suggest that the cholinergic system participates in regulating ovarian E2 secretion. Such participation varies according to the ovary remaining in situ and the stage of the estrous cycle of the animal. The results agree with previously stated hypothesis of a neural pathway arising from the peritoneum that participates in regulating E2 secretion, and also supports the idea of cross-talk between the ovaries, via a neural communication, that modulates E2 secretion.

  8. Interacting viscous entropy-corrected holographic scalar field models of dark energy with time-varying G in modified FRW cosmology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farzin Adabi; Kayoomars Karami; Fereshte Felegary; Zohre Azarmi

    2012-01-01

    We study the entropy-corrected version of the holographic dark energy (HDE) model in the framework of modified Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology.We consider a non-flat universe filled with an interacting viscous entropy-corrected HDE (ECHDE) with dark matter.Also included in our model is the case of the variable gravitational constant G.We obtain the equation of state and the deceleration parameters of the interacting viscous ECHDE.Moreover,we reconstruct the potential and the dynamics of the quintessence,tachyon,K-essence and dilaton scalar field models according to the evolutionary behavior of the interacting viscous ECHDE model with time-varying G.

  9. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluat

  10. Validation of a plant-wide phosphorus modelling approach with minerals precipitation in a full-scale WWTP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; John Batstone, Damien; Tait, Stephan

    2016-09-01

    The focus of modelling in wastewater treatment is shifting from single unit to plant-wide scale. Plant-wide modelling approaches provide opportunities to study the dynamics and interactions of different transformations in water and sludge streams. Towards developing more general and robust simulation tools applicable to a broad range of wastewater engineering problems, this paper evaluates a plant-wide model built with sub-models from the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2-P (BSM2-P) with an improved/expanded physico-chemical framework (PCF). The PCF includes a simple and validated equilibrium approach describing ion speciation and ion pairing with kinetic multiple minerals precipitation. Model performance is evaluated against data sets from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant, assessing capability to describe water and sludge lines across the treatment process under steady-state operation. With default rate kinetic and stoichiometric parameters, a good general agreement is observed between the full-scale datasets and the simulated results under steady-state conditions. Simulation results show differences between measured and modelled phosphorus as little as 4-15% (relative) throughout the entire plant. Dynamic influent profiles were generated using a calibrated influent generator and were used to study the effect of long-term influent dynamics on plant performance. Model-based analysis shows that minerals precipitation strongly influences composition in the anaerobic digesters, but also impacts on nutrient loading across the entire plant. A forecasted implementation of nutrient recovery by struvite crystallization (model scenario only), reduced the phosphorus content in the treatment plant influent (via centrate recycling) considerably and thus decreased phosphorus in the treated outflow by up to 43%. Overall, the evaluated plant-wide model is able to jointly describe the physico-chemical and biological processes, and is advocated for future use as a tool for

  11. Investigating Faculty Technology Mentoring as a University-Wide Professional Development Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Evrim

    2016-01-01

    A growing and increasingly important area of research in higher education is the investigation of how different forms of support and training programs facilitate faculty adoption of technology into pedagogical practices. This study explored the implementation of a faculty technology mentoring (FTM) program as a university-wide professional…

  12. Meta-analysis of genome-wide association from genomic prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A limitation of many genome-wide association studies (GWA) in animal breeding is that there are many loci with small effect sizes; thus, larger sample sizes (N) are required to guarantee suitable power of detection. To increase sample size, results from different GWA can be combined in a meta-analys...

  13. Model based Inverse Methods for Sizing Cracks of Varying Shape and Location in Bolt hole Eddy Current (BHEC) Inspections (Postprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-10

    10.1063/1.4940557 14. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) A comprehensive approach is presented to perform model-based inversion of crack characteristics ...thickness crack types, and from both standard eddy current hardware and a prototype BHEC system with z -axis position encoding. Signal processing...algorithms were developed to process and extract features from the 2D data sets, and inversion algorithms using VIC-3D generated surrogate models were used

  14. Decadal region-wide and glacier-wide mass balances derived from multi-temporal ASTER satellite digital elevation models. Validation over the Mont-Blanc area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthier, Etienne; Cabot, Vincent; Vincent, Christian; Six, Delphine

    2016-06-01

    Since 2000, a vast archive of stereo-images has been built by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) satellite. Several studies already extracted glacier mass balances from multi-temporal ASTER digital elevation models (DEMs) but they lacked accurate independent data for validation. Here, we apply a linear regression to a time series of 3D-coregistered ASTER DEMs to estimate the rate of surface elevation changes (dh/dtASTER) and geodetic mass balances of Mont-Blanc glaciers (155 km²) between 2000 and 2014. Validation using field and spaceborne geodetic measurements reveals large errors at the individual pixel level (> 1 m a-1) and an accuracy of 0.2-0.3 m a-1 for dh/dtASTER averaged over areas larger than 1 km². For all Mont-Blanc glaciers, the ASTER region-wide mass balance (-1.05±0.37 m water equivalent (w.e.) a-1) agrees remarkably with the one measured using Spot5 and Pléiades DEMs (-1.06±0.23 m w.e. a-1) over their common 2003-2012 period. This multi-temporal ASTER DEM strategy leads to smaller errors than the simple differencing of two ASTER DEMs. By extrapolating dh/dtASTER to mid-February 2000, we infer a mean penetration depth of about 9±3 m for the C-band Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) radar signal, with a strong altitudinal dependency (range 0-12 m). This methodology thus reveals the regional pattern of glacier surface elevation changes and improves our knowledge of the penetration of the radar signal into snow and ice.

  15. Decadal region-wide and glacier-wide mass balances derived from multi-temporal ASTER satellite digital elevation models. Validation over the Mont-Blanc area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne eBerthier

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Since 2000, a vast archive of stereo-images has been built by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER satellite. Several studies already extracted glacier mass balances from multi-temporal ASTER digital elevation models (DEMs but they lacked accurate independent data for validation. Here, we apply a linear regression to a time series of 3D-coregistered ASTER DEMs to estimate the rate of surface elevation changes (dh/dtASTER and geodetic mass balances of Mont-Blanc glaciers (155 km² between 2000 and 2014. Validation using field and spaceborne geodetic measurements reveals large errors at the individual pixel level (> 1 m a-1 and an accuracy of 0.2-0.3 m a-1 for dh/dtASTER averaged over areas larger than 1 km². For all Mont-Blanc glaciers, the ASTER region-wide mass balance (-1.05±0.37 m water equivalent (w.e. a-1 agrees remarkably with the one measured using Spot5 and Pléiades DEMs (-1.06±0.23 m w.e. a-1 over their common 2003-2012 period. This multi-temporal ASTER DEM strategy leads to smaller errors than the simple differencing of two ASTER DEMs. By extrapolating dh/dtASTER to mid-February 2000, we infer a mean penetration depth of about 9±3 m for the C-band Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM radar signal, with a strong altitudinal dependency (range 0-12 m. This methodology thus reveals the regional pattern of glacier surface elevation changes and improves our knowledge of the penetration of the radar signal into snow and ice.

  16. Neural Network Modeling and System Simulating for the Dynamic Process of Varied Gap Pulsed GTAW with Wire Filler

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangjun ZHANG; Shanben CHEN; Lin WU

    2005-01-01

    As the base of the research work on the weld shape control during pulsed gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) with wire filler, this paper addressed the modeling of the dynamic welding process. Topside length Lt, maximum width Wt and half-length ratio Rh1 were selected to depict topside weld pool shape, and were measured on-line by vision sensing. A dynamic neural network model was constructed to predict the usually unmeasured backside width and topside height of the weld through topside shape parameters and welding parameters. The inputs of the model were the welding parameters (peak current, pulse duty ratio, welding speed, filler rate), the joint gap, the topside pool shape parameters (Lt, Wt, and Rhl), and their history values at two former pulse, a total of 24 numbers. The validating experiment results proved that the artificial neural network (ANN) model had high precision and could be used in process control. At last, with the developed dynamic model, steady and dynamic behavior was analyzed by simulation experiments, which discovered the variation rules of weld pool shape parameters under different welding parameters, and further knew well the characteristic of the welding process.

  17. Time Varying Feature Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echterhoff, J.; Simonis, I.; Atkinson, R.

    2012-04-01

    The infrastructure to gather, store and access information about our environment is improving and growing rapidly. The increasing amount of information allows us to get a better understanding of the current state of our environment, historical processes and to simulate and predict the future state of the environment. Finer grained spatial and temporal data and more reliable communications make it easier to model dynamic states and ephemeral features. The exchange of information within and across geospatial domains is facilitated through the use of harmonized information models. The Observations & Measurements (O&M) developed through OGC and standardised by ISO is an example of such a cross-domain information model. It is used in many domains, including meteorology, hydrology as well as the emergency management. O&M enables harmonized representation of common metadata that belong to the act of determining the state of a feature property, whether by sensors, simulations or humans. In addition to the resulting feature property value, information such as the result quality but especially the time that the result applies to the feature property can be represented. Temporal metadata is critical to modelling past and future states of a feature. The features, and the semantics of each property, are defined in domain specific Application Schema using the General Feature Model (GFM) from ISO 19109 and usually encoded following ISO 19136. However, at the moment these standards provide only limited support for the representation and handling of time varying feature data. Features like rivers, wildfires or gas plumes have a defined state - for example geographic extent - at any given point in time. To keep track of changes, a more complex model for example using time-series coverages is required. Furthermore, the representation and management of feature property value changes via the service interfaces defined by OGC and ISO - namely: WFS and WCS - would be rather complex

  18. WRF model evaluation for the urban heat island assessment under varying land use/land cover and reference site conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Shweta; Mohan, Manju

    2016-10-01

    Urban heat island effect in Delhi has been assessed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.5) coupled with urban canopy model (UCM) focusing on air temperature and surface skin temperature. The estimated heat island intensities for different land use/land cover (LULC) have been compared with those derived from in situ and satellite observations. The model performs reasonably well for urban heat island intensity (UHI) estimation and is able to reproduce trend of UHI for urban areas. There is a significant improvement in model performance with inclusion of UCM which results in reduction in root mean-squared errors (RMSE) for temperatures from 1.63 °C (2.89 °C) to 1.13 °C (2.75 °C) for urban (non-urban) areas. Modification of LULC also improves performance for non-urban areas. High UHI zones and top 3 hotspots are captured well by the model. The relevance of selecting a reference point at the periphery of the city away from populated and built-up areas for UHI estimation is examined in the context of rapidly growing cities where rural areas are transforming fast into built-up areas, and reference site may not be appropriate for future years. UHI estimated by WRF model (with and without UCM) with respect to reference rural site compares well with the UHI based on observed in situ data. An alternative methodology is explored using a green area with minimum temperature within the city as a reference site. This alternative methodology works well with observed UHIs and WRF-UCM-simulated UHIs but has poor performance for WRF-simulated UHIs. It is concluded that WRF model can be applied for UHI estimation with classical methodology based on rural reference site. In general, many times WRF model performs satisfactorily, though WRF-UCM always shows a better performance. Hence, inclusion of appropriate representation of urban canopies and land use-land cover is important for improving predictive capabilities of the mesoscale models.

  19. Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Thorne, Paul D.; Orr, Samuel; Mckinley, Mathew I.

    2001-05-31

    This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

  20. Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Thorne, Paul D.; Orr, Samuel; Mckinley, Mathew I.

    2001-05-31

    This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

  1. An Experimental and Modeling Study on the Response to Varying Pore Pressure and Reservoir Fluids in the Morrow A Sandstone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron V. Wandler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In mature oil fields undergoing enhanced oil recovery methods, such as CO2 injection, monitoring the reservoir changes becomes important. To understand how reservoir changes influence compressional wave (P and shear wave (S velocities, we conducted laboratory core experiments on five core samples taken from the Morrow A sandstone at Postle Field, Oklahoma. The laboratory experiments measured P- and S-wave velocities as a function of confining pressure, pore pressure, and fluid type (which included CO2 in the gas and supercritical phase. P-wave velocity shows a response that is sensitive to both pore pressure and fluid saturation. However, S-wave velocity is primarily sensitive to changes in pore pressure. We use the fluid and pore pressure response measured from the core samples to modify velocity well logs through a log facies model correlation. The modified well logs simulate the brine- and CO2-saturated cases at minimum and maximum reservoir pressure and are inputs for full waveform seismic modeling. Modeling shows how P- and S-waves have a different time-lapse amplitude response with offset. The results from the laboratory experiments and modeling show the advantages of combining P- and S-wave attributes in recognizing the mechanism responsible for time-lapse changes due to CO2 injection.

  2. Evaluation of the accuracy of an offline seasonally-varying matrix transport model for simulating ideal age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardin, Ann; Primeau, François; Lindsay, Keith; Bradley, Andrew

    2016-09-01

    Newton-Krylov solvers for ocean tracers have the potential to greatly decrease the computational costs of spinning up deep-ocean tracers, which can take several thousand model years to reach equilibrium with surface processes. One version of the algorithm uses offline tracer transport matrices to simulate an annual cycle of tracer concentrations and applies Newton's method to find concentrations that are periodic in time. Here we present the impact of time-averaging the transport matrices on the equilibrium values of an ideal-age tracer. We compared annually-averaged, monthly-averaged, and 5-day-averaged transport matrices to an online simulation using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° and 60 vertical levels. We found that increasing the time resolution of the offline transport model reduced a low age bias from 12% for the annually-averaged transport matrices, to 4% for the monthly-averaged transport matrices, and to less than 2% for the transport matrices constructed from 5-day averages. The largest differences were in areas with strong seasonal changes in the circulation, such as the Northern Indian Ocean. For many applications the relatively small bias obtained using the offline model makes the offline approach attractive because it uses significantly less computer resources and is simpler to set up and run.

  3. A model for filtered backprojection reconstruction artifacts due to time-varying attenuation values in perfusion C-arm CT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fieselmann, Andreas; Dennerlein, Frank; Deuerling-Zheng, Yu; Boese, Jan; Fahrig, Rebecca; Hornegger, Joachim

    2011-06-01

    Filtered backprojection is the basis for many CT reconstruction tasks. It assumes constant attenuation values of the object during the acquisition of the projection data. Reconstruction artifacts can arise if this assumption is violated. For example, contrast flow in perfusion imaging with C-arm CT systems, which have acquisition times of several seconds per C-arm rotation, can cause this violation. In this paper, we derived and validated a novel spatio-temporal model to describe these kinds of artifacts. The model separates the temporal dynamics due to contrast flow from the scan and reconstruction parameters. We introduced derivative-weighted point spread functions to describe the spatial spread of the artifacts. The model allows prediction of reconstruction artifacts for given temporal dynamics of the attenuation values. Furthermore, it can be used to systematically investigate the influence of different reconstruction parameters on the artifacts. We have shown that with optimized redundancy weighting function parameters the spatial spread of the artifacts around a typical arterial vessel can be reduced by about 70%. Finally, an inversion of our model could be used as the basis for novel dynamic reconstruction algorithms that further minimize these artifacts.

  4. A model for filtered backprojection reconstruction artifacts due to time-varying attenuation values in perfusion C-arm CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fieselmann, Andreas; Hornegger, Joachim [Department of Computer Science, Pattern Recognition Lab, Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Martensstr. 3, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Dennerlein, Frank; Deuerling-Zheng, Yu; Boese, Jan [Siemens AG, Healthcare Sector, Angiography and Interventional X-Ray Systems, Siemensstr. 1, 91301 Forchheim (Germany); Fahrig, Rebecca, E-mail: andreas.fieselmann@informatik.uni-erlangen.de [Department of Radiology, Lucas MRS Center, Stanford University, 1201 Welch Road, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States)

    2011-06-21

    Filtered backprojection is the basis for many CT reconstruction tasks. It assumes constant attenuation values of the object during the acquisition of the projection data. Reconstruction artifacts can arise if this assumption is violated. For example, contrast flow in perfusion imaging with C-arm CT systems, which have acquisition times of several seconds per C-arm rotation, can cause this violation. In this paper, we derived and validated a novel spatio-temporal model to describe these kinds of artifacts. The model separates the temporal dynamics due to contrast flow from the scan and reconstruction parameters. We introduced derivative-weighted point spread functions to describe the spatial spread of the artifacts. The model allows prediction of reconstruction artifacts for given temporal dynamics of the attenuation values. Furthermore, it can be used to systematically investigate the influence of different reconstruction parameters on the artifacts. We have shown that with optimized redundancy weighting function parameters the spatial spread of the artifacts around a typical arterial vessel can be reduced by about 70%. Finally, an inversion of our model could be used as the basis for novel dynamic reconstruction algorithms that further minimize these artifacts.

  5. Model versus Military Pilot: A Mixed-Methods Study of Adolescents' Attitudes toward Women in Varied Occupations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Elizabeth A.; Sherman, Aurora M.

    2016-01-01

    Using an experimental methodology, the present study investigated adolescents' attitudes toward media images of women in non-appearance-focused (CEO and military pilot) and appearance-focused occupations (model and actor). One hundred adolescent girls and 76 adolescent boys provided ratings of likability, competence, and similarity to self after…

  6. Hydrologic characterization of desert soils with varying degrees of pedogenesis: 2. Inverse modeling for eff ective properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, B.B.; Perkins, K.S.; Nimmo, J.R.; Singha, K.

    2009-01-01

    To understand their relation to pedogenic development, soil hydraulic properties in the Mojave Desert were investi- gated for three deposit types: (i) recently deposited sediments in an active wash, (ii) a soil of early Holocene age, and (iii) a highly developed soil of late Pleistocene age. Eff ective parameter values were estimated for a simplifi ed model based on Richards' equation using a fl ow simulator (VS2D), an inverse algorithm (UCODE-2005), and matric pressure and water content data from three ponded infi ltration experiments. The inverse problem framework was designed to account for the eff ects of subsurface lateral spreading of infi ltrated water. Although none of the inverse problems converged on a unique, best-fi t parameter set, a minimum standard error of regression was reached for each deposit type. Parameter sets from the numerous inversions that reached the minimum error were used to develop probability distribu tions for each parameter and deposit type. Electrical resistance imaging obtained for two of the three infi ltration experiments was used to independently test fl ow model performance. Simulations for the active wash and Holocene soil successfully depicted the lateral and vertical fl uxes. Simulations of the more pedogenically developed Pleistocene soil did not adequately replicate the observed fl ow processes, which would require a more complex conceptual model to include smaller scale heterogeneities. The inverse-modeling results, however, indicate that with increasing age, the steep slope of the soil water retention curve shitis toward more negative matric pressures. Assigning eff ective soil hydraulic properties based on soil age provides a promising framework for future development of regional-scale models of soil moisture dynamics in arid environments for land-management applications. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

  7. Genome-Wide Expression Profiling of Five Mouse Models Identifies Similarities and Differences with Human Psoriasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swindell, William R.; Johnston, Andrew; Carbajal, Steve; Han, Gangwen; Wohn, Christian; Lu, Jun; Xing, Xianying; Nair, Rajan P.; Voorhees, John J.; Elder, James T.; Wang, Xiao-Jing; Sano, Shigetoshi; Prens, Errol P.; DiGiovanni, John; Pittelkow, Mark R.; Ward, Nicole L.; Gudjonsson, Johann E.

    2011-01-01

    Development of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features of the huma

  8. Genome-wide expression profiling of five mouse models identifies similarities and differences with human psoriasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.R. Swindell (William R.); A. Johnston (Andrew); S. Carbajal (Steve); G. Han (Gangwen); C.T. Wohn (Christopher); J. Lu (Jun); X. Xing (Xianying); R.P. Nair (Rajan P.); J.J. Voorhees (John); J.T. Elder (James); X.J. Wang (Xian Jiang); S. Sano (Shigetoshi); E.P. Prens (Errol); J. DiGiovanni (John); M.R. Pittelkow (Mark R.); N.L. Ward (Nicole); J.E. Gudjonsson (Johann Eli)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractDevelopment of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features

  9. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel, III; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Francoise; Singh, Balwinder; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  10. Genome-wide expression profiling of five mouse models identifies similarities and differences with human psoriasis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.R. Swindell (William R.); A. Johnston (Andrew); S. Carbajal (Steve); G. Han (Gangwen); C.T. Wohn (Christopher); J. Lu (Jun); X. Xing (Xianying); R.P. Nair (Rajan P.); J.J. Voorhees (John); J.T. Elder (James); X.J. Wang (Xian Jiang); S. Sano (Shigetoshi); E.P. Prens (Errol); J. DiGiovanni (John); M.R. Pittelkow (Mark R.); N.L. Ward (Nicole); J.E. Gudjonsson (Johann Eli)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractDevelopment of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features

  11. Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ferrario, Elisa; Pini, Alessia

    2013-01-01

    International audience; The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagatio...

  12. Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo

    We analyse the problem of parameter inconsistency in panel data econometrics due to the correlation of exogenous variables with the error term.A common solution in this setting is to use Instrumental-Variable (IV) estimation in the spirit of Hausman-Taylor (1981). However, some potential...... Carlo simulations, where we explicitly control for the problem of IV selection in the Hausman-Taylor case. The simulation results show that the Hausman- Taylor model with perfect-knowledge about the underlying data structure (instrument orthogonality) has on average the smallest bias. However, compared...... square error (rmse) than both Hausman-Taylor models with perfect and imperfect knowledge about the underlying correlation between r.h.s variables and residual term.This indicates that it is generally more efficient.The results are roughly robust for various combinations in the time and cross...

  13. Modelling a network where the opinion of each unit varies according to a majority ruling of its neighbouring units

    CERN Document Server

    Kusmartsev, V F

    2016-01-01

    The complexity of human behaviour can lead to very unpredictable patterns in social activity and structure. Here we demonstrate the instability of a community network controlled by majority ruling, where an element adopts the most popular opinion of their peers. We modelled a community as a square lattice, and performed sequential time step numerical calculations upon each cell in parallel. Depending on the initial ratio of two opinions, the community can segregate either into separate gangs and cliques, or get dominated by a single opinion. We also note that gangs are separated by neutral or confused groups of individuals, buffering the transition. The behaviors shown by this model can be comfortably applied to many other real life situations, such as neural or ecological networks. The results of this paper have been preliminary published in the Ref. [34].

  14. Comprehensive contour prediction model of work rolls in hot wide strip mill

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaodong Wang; Quan Yang; Anrui He; Renzhong Wang

    2007-01-01

    The predictive calculation of comprehensive contour of work rolls in the on-line strip shape control model during hot rolling consists of two important parts of wear contour calculation and thermal contour calculation, which have a direct influence on the accuracy of shape control. A statistical wear model and a finite difference thermal contour model of work rolls were described. The comprehensive contour is the equivalence treatment of the sum of grinding, wear, and thermal contours. This comprehensive contour calculation model has been applied successfully in the real on-line strip shape control model. Its high precision has been proved through the large amounts of actual roll profile measurements and theoretical analyses. The hit rates (percent of shape index satisfying requirement) of crown and head flatness of the strips rolled, by using the shape control model, which includes the comprehensive contour calculation model, have about 16% and 10% increase respectively, compared to those of strips rolled by using manual operation.

  15. Multi-Species Models of Time-Varying Catchability in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The catchability coefficient is used in most marine stock assessment models, and is usually assumed to be stationary and density-independent. However, recent research has shown that these assumptions are violated in most fisheries. Violation of these assumptions will cause underestimation of stock declines or recoveries, leading to inappropriate management policies. This project assesses the soundness of stationarity and density independence assumptions using multi-species data for seven s...

  16. Modelling a network where the opinion of each unit varies according to a majority ruling of its neighbouring units

    OpenAIRE

    Kusmartsev, V. F.; Kusmartsev, F. V.

    2016-01-01

    The complexity of human behaviour can lead to very unpredictable patterns in social activity and structure. Here we demonstrate the instability of a community network controlled by majority ruling, where an element adopts the most popular opinion of their peers. We modelled a community as a square lattice, and performed sequential time step numerical calculations upon each cell in parallel. Depending on the initial ratio of two opinions, the community can segregate either into separate gangs ...

  17. A mixed model reduces spurious genetic associations produced by population stratification in genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jimin; Lee, Chaeyoung

    2015-04-01

    Population stratification can produce spurious genetic associations in genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Mixed model methodology has been regarded useful for correcting population stratification. This study explored statistical power and false discovery rate (FDR) with the data simulated for dichotomous traits. Empirical FDRs and powers were estimated using fixed models with and without genomic control and using mixed models with and without reflecting loci linked to the candidate marker in genetic relationships. Population stratification with admixture degree ranged from 1% to 10% resulted in inflated FDRs from the fixed model analysis without genomic control and decreased power from the fixed model analysis with genomic control (Ppopulation stratification could not change FDR and power estimates from the mixed model analyses (P>0.05). We suggest that the mixed model methodology was useful to reduce spurious genetic associations produced by population stratification in GWAS, even with a high degree of admixture (10%). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Wide low-mass binary model for the origin of axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kool, M. de; Heuvel, E.P.J. van den

    1985-10-17

    An accreting binary model has been proposed by recent workers to account for the origin of the axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources. The authors show that the only type of binary system that can produce the observed structural properties, is a relatively wide neutron star binary, in which the companion of the neutron star is a low-mass giant. Binaries of this type are expected to resemble closely the eight brightest galactic bulge X-ray sources as well as the progenitors of the two wide radio pulsar binaries.

  19. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynch, Miranda L., E-mail: Miranda_Lynch@urmc.rochester.edu [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Huang, Li-Shan [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Cox, Christopher [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States); Strain, J.J. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Myers, Gary J. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Bonham, Maxine P. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Shamlaye, Conrad F. [Ministry of Health, Republic of Seychelles (Seychelles); Stokes-Riner, Abbie [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Wallace, Julie M.W.; Duffy, Emeir M. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Clarkson, Thomas W.; Davidson, Philip W. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy

  20. Dynamic RSA: Examining parasympathetic regulatory dynamics via vector-autoregressive modeling of time-varying RSA and heart period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Aaron J; Reeves, Jonathan W; Chi, Cyrus

    2016-07-01

    Expanding on recently published methods, the current study presents an approach to estimating the dynamic, regulatory effect of the parasympathetic nervous system on heart period on a moment-to-moment basis. We estimated second-to-second variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in order to estimate the contemporaneous and time-lagged relationships among RSA, interbeat interval (IBI), and respiration rate via vector autoregression. Moreover, we modeled these relationships at lags of 1 s to 10 s, in order to evaluate the optimal latency for estimating dynamic RSA effects. The IBI (t) on RSA (t-n) regression parameter was extracted from individual models as an operationalization of the regulatory effect of RSA on IBI-referred to as dynamic RSA (dRSA). Dynamic RSA positively correlated with standard averages of heart rate and negatively correlated with standard averages of RSA. We propose that dRSA reflects the active downregulation of heart period by the parasympathetic nervous system and thus represents a novel metric that provides incremental validity in the measurement of autonomic cardiac control-specifically, a method by which parasympathetic regulatory effects can be measured in process.