WorldWideScience

Sample records for models vary widely

  1. Additional Surgery after Breast-Conserving Surgery Varies Widely

    Science.gov (United States)

    A study published in the Feb. 1, 2012, issue of JAMA found that the number of women who have one or more additional surgeries to remove suspected residual tumor tissue (re-excisions) following breast-conserving surgery (BCS) for breast cancer varies widely across surgeons and hospitals.

  2. Conceptual Modeling of Time-Varying Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Heidi; Jensen, Christian S.

    2004-01-01

    A wide range of database applications manage information that varies over time. Many of the underlying database schemas of these were designed using the Entity-Relationship (ER) model. In the research community as well as in industry, it is common knowledge that the temporal aspects of the mini......-world are important, but difficult to capture using the ER model. Several enhancements to the ER model have been proposed in an attempt to support the modeling of temporal aspects of information. Common to the existing temporally extended ER models, few or no specific requirements to the models were given...

  3. Genome-wide DNA polymorphism analyses using VariScan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilella Albert J

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA sequence polymorphisms analysis can provide valuable information on the evolutionary forces shaping nucleotide variation, and provides an insight into the functional significance of genomic regions. The recent ongoing genome projects will radically improve our capabilities to detect specific genomic regions shaped by natural selection. Current available methods and software, however, are unsatisfactory for such genome-wide analysis. Results We have developed methods for the analysis of DNA sequence polymorphisms at the genome-wide scale. These methods, which have been tested on a coalescent-simulated and actual data files from mouse and human, have been implemented in the VariScan software package version 2.0. Additionally, we have also incorporated a graphical-user interface. The main features of this software are: i exhaustive population-genetic analyses including those based on the coalescent theory; ii analysis adapted to the shallow data generated by the high-throughput genome projects; iii use of genome annotations to conduct a comprehensive analyses separately for different functional regions; iv identification of relevant genomic regions by the sliding-window and wavelet-multiresolution approaches; v visualization of the results integrated with current genome annotations in commonly available genome browsers. Conclusion VariScan is a powerful and flexible suite of software for the analysis of DNA polymorphisms. The current version implements new algorithms, methods, and capabilities, providing an important tool for an exhaustive exploratory analysis of genome-wide DNA polymorphism data.

  4. Power System Event Ranking Using a New Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling with a Wide Area Measurement System-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Bagher Abolhasani Jabali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Detecting critical power system events for Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA is required for reliability improvement. The approach proposed in this paper investigates the effects of events on dynamic behavior during nonlinear system response while common approaches use steady-state conditions after events. This paper presents some new and enhanced indices for event ranking based on time-domain simulation and polytopic linear parameter-varying (LPV modeling of a power system. In the proposed approach, a polytopic LPV representation is generated via linearization about some points of the nonlinear dynamic behavior of power system using wide-area measurement system (WAMS concepts and then event ranking is done based on the frequency response of the system models on the vertices. Therefore, the nonlinear behaviors of the system in the time of fault occurrence are considered for events ranking. The proposed algorithm is applied to a power system using nonlinear simulation. The comparison of the results especially in different fault conditions shows the advantages of the proposed approach and indices.

  5. Plant Mating Systems Often Vary Widely Among Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Whitehead

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Most flowering plants are hermaphroditic, yet the proportion of seeds fertilized by self and outcross pollen varies widely among species, ranging from predominant self-fertilization to exclusive outcrossing. A population's rate of outcrossing has important evolutionary outcomes as it influences genetic structure, effective population size, and offspring fitness. Because most mating system studies have quantified outcrossing rates for just one or two populations, past reviews of mating system diversity have not been able to characterize the extent of variation among populations. Here we present a new database of more than 30 years of mating system studies that report outcrossing rates for three or more populations per species. This survey, which includes 741 populations from 105 species, illustrates substantial and prevalent among-population variation in the mating system. Intermediate outcrossing rates (mixed mating are common; 63% of species had at least one mixed mating population. The variance among populations and within species was not significantly correlated with pollination mode or phylogeny. Our review underscores the need for studies exploring variation in the relative influence of ecological and genetic factors on the mating system, and how this varies among populations. We conclude that estimates of outcrossing rates from single populations are often highly unreliable indicators of the mating system of an entire species.

  6. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  7. An R package "VariABEL" for genome-wide searching of potentially interacting loci by testing genotypic variance heterogeneity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Struchalin Maksim V

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hundreds of new loci have been discovered by genome-wide association studies of human traits. These studies mostly focused on associations between single locus and a trait. Interactions between genes and between genes and environmental factors are of interest as they can improve our understanding of the genetic background underlying complex traits. Genome-wide testing of complex genetic models is a computationally demanding task. Moreover, testing of such models leads to multiple comparison problems that reduce the probability of new findings. Assuming that the genetic model underlying a complex trait can include hundreds of genes and environmental factors, testing of these models in genome-wide association studies represent substantial difficulties. We and Pare with colleagues (2010 developed a method allowing to overcome such difficulties. The method is based on the fact that loci which are involved in interactions can show genotypic variance heterogeneity of a trait. Genome-wide testing of such heterogeneity can be a fast scanning approach which can point to the interacting genetic variants. Results In this work we present a new method, SVLM, allowing for variance heterogeneity analysis of imputed genetic variation. Type I error and power of this test are investigated and contracted with these of the Levene's test. We also present an R package, VariABEL, implementing existing and newly developed tests. Conclusions Variance heterogeneity analysis is a promising method for detection of potentially interacting loci. New method and software package developed in this work will facilitate such analysis in genome-wide context.

  8. Time-varying BRDFs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

    2007-01-01

    The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

  9. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  10. Estimating varying coefficients for partial differential equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-09-01

    Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used to model complex dynamical systems in multiple dimensions, and their parameters often have important scientific interpretations. In some applications, PDE parameters are not constant but can change depending on the values of covariates, a feature that we call varying coefficients. We propose a parameter cascading method to estimate varying coefficients in PDE models from noisy data. Our estimates of the varying coefficients are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The performance of our method is evaluated by a simulation study and by an empirical study estimating three varying coefficients in a PDE model arising from LIDAR data. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  11. Nutrient Intake Values for Folate during Pregnancy and Lactation Vary Widely around the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa A. Houghton

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Folate is a B-vitamin with particular importance during reproduction due to its role in the synthesis and maintenance of DNA. Folate is well known for its role in preventing neural tube defects (NTDs during the periconceptional period. There is also an increased need for folate throughout pregnancy to support optimal growth and development of the fetus and blood volume expansion and tissue growth of the mother. During lactation, women are at risk of folate deficiency due to increased demands to accommodate milk folate levels. Nutrient Intake Values (NIVs for folate have been calculated to take into account additional needs during pregnancy and lactation. However, these values vary widely between countries. For example, the folate requirement that is set to meet the needs of almost all healthy women during pregnancy varies from 300 µg/day in the United Kingdom to 750 µg/day in Mexico. Currently, there is no accepted standardized terminology or framework for establishing NIVs. This article reviews country-specific NIVs for folate during pregnancy and lactation and the basis for setting these reference values.

  12. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric

  13. Modelling Time-Varying Volatility in Financial Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Laakkonen, Helinä

    2014-01-01

    The “unusually uncertain” phase in the global financial markets has inspired many researchers to study the effects of ambiguity (or “Knightian uncertainty”) on the decisions made by investors and their implications for the capital markets. We contribute to this literature by using a modified...... version of the time-varying GARCH model of Amado and Teräsvirta (2013) to analyze whether the increasing uncertainty has caused excess volatility in the US and European government bond markets. In our model, volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into two time-varying conditional components: the first...... being captured by a stable GARCH(1,1) process and the second driven by the level of uncertainty in the financial market....

  14. Model Study of Wave Overtopping of Marine Structure for a Wide Range of Geometric Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter

    2000-01-01

    The objective of the study described in this paper is to enable estimation of wave overtopping rates for slopes/ramps given by a wide range of geometric parameters when subjected to varying wave conditions. To achieve this a great number of model tests are carried out in a wave tank using irregul...... 2-D waves. On the basis of the first part of these tests an exponential overtopping expression for a linear slope, including the effect of limited draught and varying slope angle, is presented. The plans for further tests with other slope geometries are described....

  15. Edge Modeling by Two Blur Parameters in Varying Contrasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Suyoung

    2018-06-01

    This paper presents a method of modeling edge profiles with two blur parameters, and estimating and predicting those edge parameters with varying brightness combinations and camera-to-object distances (COD). First, the validity of the edge model is proven mathematically. Then, it is proven experimentally with edges from a set of images captured for specifically designed target sheets and with edges from natural images. Estimation of the two blur parameters for each observed edge profile is performed with a brute-force method to find parameters that produce global minimum errors. Then, using the estimated blur parameters, actual blur parameters of edges with arbitrary brightness combinations are predicted using a surface interpolation method (i.e., kriging). The predicted surfaces show that the two blur parameters of the proposed edge model depend on both dark-side edge brightness and light-side edge brightness following a certain global trend. This is similar across varying CODs. The proposed edge model is compared with a one-blur parameter edge model using experiments of the root mean squared error for fitting the edge models to each observed edge profile. The comparison results suggest that the proposed edge model has superiority over the one-blur parameter edge model in most cases where edges have varying brightness combinations.

  16. Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

    2017-12-01

    Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

  17. Estimates of Continental Ancestry Vary Widely among Individuals with the Same mtDNA Haplogroup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Leslie S.; Magnaye, Kevin M.; Bigham, Abigail W.; Akey, Joshua M.; Bamshad, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    The association between a geographical region and an mtDNA haplogroup(s) has provided the basis for using mtDNA haplogroups to infer an individual’s place of origin and genetic ancestry. Although it is well known that ancestry inferences using mtDNA haplogroups and those using genome-wide markers are frequently discrepant, little empirical information exists on the magnitude and scope of such discrepancies between multiple mtDNA haplogroups and worldwide populations. We compared genetic-ancestry inferences made by mtDNA-haplogroup membership to those made by autosomal SNPs in ∼940 samples of the Human Genome Diversity Panel and recently admixed populations from the 1000 Genomes Project. Continental-ancestry proportions often varied widely among individuals sharing the same mtDNA haplogroup. For only half of mtDNA haplogroups did the highest average continental-ancestry proportion match the highest continental-ancestry proportion of a majority of individuals with that haplogroup. Prediction of an individual’s mtDNA haplogroup from his or her continental-ancestry proportions was often incorrect. Collectively, these results indicate that for most individuals in the worldwide populations sampled, mtDNA-haplogroup membership provides limited information about either continental ancestry or continental region of origin. PMID:25620206

  18. Partially linear varying coefficient models stratified by a functional covariate

    KAUST Repository

    Maity, Arnab

    2012-10-01

    We consider the problem of estimation in semiparametric varying coefficient models where the covariate modifying the varying coefficients is functional and is modeled nonparametrically. We develop a kernel-based estimator of the nonparametric component and a profiling estimator of the parametric component of the model and derive their asymptotic properties. Specifically, we show the consistency of the nonparametric functional estimates and derive the asymptotic expansion of the estimates of the parametric component. We illustrate the performance of our methodology using a simulation study and a real data application.

  19. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  20. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  1. Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

    1993-01-01

    Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

  2. Wide-field schematic eye models with gradient-index lens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncharov, Alexander V; Dainty, Chris

    2007-08-01

    We propose a wide-field schematic eye model, which provides a more realistic description of the optical system of the eye in relation to its anatomical structure. The wide-field model incorporates a gradient-index (GRIN) lens, which enables it to fulfill properties of two well-known schematic eye models, namely, Navarro's model for off-axis aberrations and Thibos's chromatic on-axis model (the Indiana eye). These two models are based on extensive experimental data, which makes the derived wide-field eye model also consistent with that data. A mathematical method to construct a GRIN lens with its iso-indicial contours following the optical surfaces of given asphericity is presented. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with three variants related to different age groups. The role of the GRIN structure in relation to the lens paradox is analyzed. The wide-field model with a GRIN lens can be used as a starting design for the eye inverse problem, i.e., reconstructing the optical structure of the eye from off-axis wavefront measurements. Anatomically more accurate age-dependent optical models of the eye could ultimately help an optical designer to improve wide-field retinal imaging.

  3. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  4. Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens G Froese

    Full Text Available Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

  5. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  6. Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

  7. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  8. Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunjai Nakshatharan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.

  9. Numerical modeling of rapidly varying flows using HEC-RAS and WSPG models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Prasada; Hromadka, Theodore V

    2016-01-01

    The performance of two popular hydraulic models (HEC-RAS and WSPG) for modeling hydraulic jump in an open channel is investigated. The numerical solutions are compared with a new experimental data set obtained for varying channel bottom slopes and flow rates. Both the models satisfactorily predict the flow depths and location of the jump. The end results indicate that the numerical models output is sensitive to the value of chosen roughness coefficient. For this application, WSPG model is easier to implement with few input variables.

  10. A method for fitting regression splines with varying polynomial order in the linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Lloyd J; Stewart, Paul W; MacDougall, James E; Helms, Ronald W

    2006-02-15

    The linear mixed model has become a widely used tool for longitudinal analysis of continuous variables. The use of regression splines in these models offers the analyst additional flexibility in the formulation of descriptive analyses, exploratory analyses and hypothesis-driven confirmatory analyses. We propose a method for fitting piecewise polynomial regression splines with varying polynomial order in the fixed effects and/or random effects of the linear mixed model. The polynomial segments are explicitly constrained by side conditions for continuity and some smoothness at the points where they join. By using a reparameterization of this explicitly constrained linear mixed model, an implicitly constrained linear mixed model is constructed that simplifies implementation of fixed-knot regression splines. The proposed approach is relatively simple, handles splines in one variable or multiple variables, and can be easily programmed using existing commercial software such as SAS or S-plus. The method is illustrated using two examples: an analysis of longitudinal viral load data from a study of subjects with acute HIV-1 infection and an analysis of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profiles.

  11. An improved robust model predictive control for linear parameter-varying input-output models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbas, H.S.; Hanema, J.; Tóth, R.; Mohammadpour, J.; Meskin, N.

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a new robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control the discrete-time linear parameter-varying input-output models subject to input and output constraints. Closed-loop asymptotic stability is guaranteed by including a quadratic terminal cost and an ellipsoidal terminal

  12. Modelling Acoustic Wave Propagation in Axisymmetric Varying-Radius Waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    A computationally fast and accurate model (a set of coupled ordinary differential equations) for fluid sound-wave propagation in infinite axisymmetric waveguides of varying radius is proposed. The model accounts for fluid heat conduction and fluid irrotational viscosity. The model problem is solved...... by expanding solutions in terms of cross-sectional eigenfunctions following Stevenson’s method. A transfer matrix can be easily constructed from simple model responses of a given waveguide and later used in computing the response to any complex wave input. Energy losses due to heat conduction and viscous...

  13. The Three-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Wide Gap Taylor-Couette Flow Modelled by CFD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shina Adebayo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical investigation is conducted for the flow between two concentric cylinders with a wide gap, relevant to bearing chamber applications. This wide gap configuration has received comparatively less attention than narrow gap journal bearing type geometries. The flow in the gap between an inner rotating cylinder and an outer stationary cylinder has been modelled as an incompressible flow using an implicit finite volume RANS scheme with the realisable k-ε model. The model flow is above the critical Taylor number at which axisymmetric counterrotating Taylor vortices are formed. The tangential velocity profiles at all axial locations are different from typical journal bearing applications, where the velocity profiles are quasilinear. The predicted results led to two significant findings of impact in rotating machinery operations. Firstly, the axial variation of the tangential velocity gradient induces an axially varying shear stress, resulting in local bands of enhanced work input to the working fluid. This is likely to cause unwanted heat transfer on the surface in high torque turbomachinery applications. Secondly, the radial inflow at the axial end-wall boundaries is likely to promote the transport of debris to the junction between the end-collar and the rotating cylinder, causing the build-up of fouling in the seal.

  14. Frontal Neurons Modulate Memory Retrieval across Widely Varying Temporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Hua; Williams, Ziv M.

    2015-01-01

    Once a memory has formed, it is thought to undergo a gradual transition within the brain from short- to long-term storage. This putative process, however, also poses a unique problem to the memory system in that the same learned items must also be retrieved across broadly varying time scales. Here, we find that neurons in the ventrolateral…

  15. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  16. Spatially varying dispersion to model breakthrough curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guangquan

    2011-01-01

    Often the water flowing in a karst conduit is a combination of contaminated water entering at a sinkhole and cleaner water released from the limestone matrix. Transport processes in the conduit are controlled by advection, mixing (dilution and dispersion), and retention-release. In this article, a karst transport model considering advection, spatially varying dispersion, and dilution (from matrix seepage) is developed. Two approximate Green's functions are obtained using transformation of variables, respectively, for the initial-value problem and for the boundary-value problem. A numerical example illustrates that mixing associated with strong spatially varying conduit dispersion can cause strong skewness and long tailing in spring breakthrough curves. Comparison of the predicted breakthrough curve against that measured from a dye-tracing experiment between Ames Sink and Indian Spring, Northwest Florida, shows that the conduit dispersivity can be as large as 400 m. Such a large number is believed to imply strong solute interaction between the conduit and the matrix and/or multiple flow paths in a conduit network. It is concluded that Taylor dispersion is not dominant in transport in a karst conduit, and the complicated retention-release process between mobile- and immobile waters may be described by strong spatially varying conduit dispersion. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  17. Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

    2017-06-01

    The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

  18. Soil Compressibility Models for a Wide Stress Range

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song-Hun

    2016-03-03

    Soil compressibility models with physically correct asymptotic void ratios are required to analyze situations that involve a wide stress range. Previously suggested models and other functions are adapted to satisfy asymptotic void ratios at low and high stress levels; all updated models involve four parameters. Compiled consolidation data for remolded and natural clays are used to test the models and to develop correlations between model parameters and index properties. Models can adequately fit soil compression data for a wide range of stresses and soil types; in particular, models that involve the power of the stress σ\\'β display higher flexibility to capture the brittle response of some natural soils. The use of a single continuous function avoids numerical discontinuities or the need for ad hoc procedures to determine the yield stress. The tangent stiffness-readily computed for all models-should not be mistaken for the small-strain constant-fabric stiffness. © 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.

  19. FGWAS: Functional genome wide association analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chao; Thompson, Paul; Wang, Yalin; Yu, Yang; Zhang, Jingwen; Kong, Dehan; Colen, Rivka R; Knickmeyer, Rebecca C; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-10-01

    Functional phenotypes (e.g., subcortical surface representation), which commonly arise in imaging genetic studies, have been used to detect putative genes for complexly inherited neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. However, existing statistical methods largely ignore the functional features (e.g., functional smoothness and correlation). The aim of this paper is to develop a functional genome-wide association analysis (FGWAS) framework to efficiently carry out whole-genome analyses of functional phenotypes. FGWAS consists of three components: a multivariate varying coefficient model, a global sure independence screening procedure, and a test procedure. Compared with the standard multivariate regression model, the multivariate varying coefficient model explicitly models the functional features of functional phenotypes through the integration of smooth coefficient functions and functional principal component analysis. Statistically, compared with existing methods for genome-wide association studies (GWAS), FGWAS can substantially boost the detection power for discovering important genetic variants influencing brain structure and function. Simulation studies show that FGWAS outperforms existing GWAS methods for searching sparse signals in an extremely large search space, while controlling for the family-wise error rate. We have successfully applied FGWAS to large-scale analysis of data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative for 708 subjects, 30,000 vertices on the left and right hippocampal surfaces, and 501,584 SNPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Simple Model with Time-Varying Fine-Structure ``Constant''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, M. S.

    2009-10-01

    Extending the original version written in colaboration with L.A. Trevisan, we study the generalisation of Dirac's LNH, so that time-variation of the fine-structure constant, due to varying electrical and magnetic permittivities is included along with other variations (cosmological and gravitational ``constants''), etc. We consider the present Universe, and also an inflationary scenario. Rotation of the Universe is a given possibility in this model.

  1. Genome-wide CpG island methylation and intergenic demethylation propensities vary among different tumor sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung-Tae; Wiemels, Joseph L

    2016-02-18

    The epigenetic landscape of cancer includes both focal hypermethylation and broader hypomethylation in a genome-wide manner. By means of a comprehensive genomic analysis on 6637 tissues of 21 tumor types, we here show that the degrees of overall methylation in CpG island (CGI) and demethylation in intergenic regions, defined as 'backbone', largely vary among different tumors. Depending on tumor type, both CGI methylation and backbone demethylation are often associated with clinical, epidemiological and biological features such as age, sex, smoking history, anatomic location, histological type and grade, stage, molecular subtype and biological pathways. We found connections between CGI methylation and hypermutability, microsatellite instability, IDH1 mutation, 19p gain and polycomb features, and backbone demethylation with chromosomal instability, NSD1 and TP53 mutations, 5q and 19p loss and long repressive domains. These broad epigenetic patterns add a new dimension to our understanding of tumor biology and its clinical implications. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  2. Fitting Social Network Models Using Varying Truncation Stochastic Approximation MCMC Algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-10-01

    The exponential random graph model (ERGM) plays a major role in social network analysis. However, parameter estimation for the ERGM is a hard problem due to the intractability of its normalizing constant and the model degeneracy. The existing algorithms, such as Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation (MCMLE) and stochastic approximation, often fail for this problem in the presence of model degeneracy. In this article, we introduce the varying truncation stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo (SAMCMC) algorithm to tackle this problem. The varying truncation mechanism enables the algorithm to choose an appropriate starting point and an appropriate gain factor sequence, and thus to produce a reasonable parameter estimate for the ERGM even in the presence of model degeneracy. The numerical results indicate that the varying truncation SAMCMC algorithm can significantly outperform the MCMLE and stochastic approximation algorithms: for degenerate ERGMs, MCMLE and stochastic approximation often fail to produce any reasonable parameter estimates, while SAMCMC can do; for nondegenerate ERGMs, SAMCMC can work as well as or better than MCMLE and stochastic approximation. The data and source codes used for this article are available online as supplementary materials. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  3. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Soil Compressibility Models for a Wide Stress Range

    KAUST Repository

    Chong, Song-Hun; Santamarina, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Soil compressibility models with physically correct asymptotic void ratios are required to analyze situations that involve a wide stress range. Previously suggested models and other functions are adapted to satisfy asymptotic void ratios at low

  5. Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeyhun I. Mikayilov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has shown that electricity demand elasticities may not be constant over time and this has investigated using time-varying estimation methods. As accurate modeling of electricity demand is very important in Azerbaijan, which is a transitional country facing significant change in its economic outlook, we analyze whether the response of electricity demand to income and price is varying over time in this economy. We employed the Time-Varying Coefficient cointegration approach, a cutting-edge time-varying estimation method. We find evidence that income elasticity demonstrates sizeable variation for the period of investigation ranging from 0.48% to 0.56%. The study has some useful policy implications related to the income and price aspects of the electricity consumption in Azerbaijan.

  6. Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Jia-Xing; Li, Jinpeng; Wang, Dan; Araki, Hitoshi; Tian, Dacheng; Yang, Sihai

    2010-11-09

    Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials. According to the cross-comparisons among the four species, 74-82% of the nuclear genes and 71-97% of the chloroplast genes suggested higher rates of molecular evolution in the two annuals than those in the two perennials. The significant heterogeneity in evolutionary rate between annuals and perennials was consistently found both in nonsynonymous sites and synonymous sites. While a linear correlation of evolutionary rates in orthologous genes between species was observed in nonsynonymous sites, the correlation was weak or invisible in synonymous sites. This tendency was clearer in nuclear genes than in chloroplast genes, in which the overall evolutionary rate was small. The slope of the regression line was consistently lower than unity, further confirming the higher evolutionary rate in annuals at the genomic level. The higher evolutionary rate in annuals than in perennials appears to be a universal phenomenon both in nuclear and chloroplast genomes in the four dicot model plants we investigated. Therefore, such heterogeneity in evolutionary rate should result from factors that have genome-wide influence, most likely those

  7. Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

    2014-05-01

    Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.

  8. Constructing Regional Groundwater Models from Geophysical Data of Varying Type, Age, and Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vest Christiansen, Anders; Auken, Esben; Marker, Pernille Aabye

    for parameterization of a 3D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models. The objective is to create a direct input to regional groundwater models for sedimentary areas, where the sand/clay distribution governs the groundwater flow. The resistivity input is all......-inclusive in the sense that we include data from a variety of instruments (DC and EM, ground-based and airborne), with a varying spatial density and varying ages and quality. The coupling between hydrological and geophysical parameters is managed using a translator function with spatially variable parameters, which...

  9. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  10. Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, Zachary Donald

    The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed

  11. New Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Cox Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunbei Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In biomedical research, one major objective is to identify risk factors and study their risk impacts, as this identification can help clinicians to both properly make a decision and increase efficiency of treatments and resource allocation. A two-step penalized-based procedure is proposed to select linear regression coefficients for linear components and to identify significant nonparametric varying-coefficient functions for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear Cox models. It is shown that the penalized-based resulting estimators of the linear regression coefficients are asymptotically normal and have oracle properties, and the resulting estimators of the varying-coefficient functions have optimal convergence rates. A simulation study and an empirical example are presented for illustration.

  12. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  13. Perfect fluid Bianchi Type-I cosmological models with time varying G ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Bianchi Type-I cosmological models containing perfect fluid with time vary- ing G and Λ have been presented. The solutions obtained represent an expansion scalar θ bearing a constant ratio to the anisotropy in the direction of space-like unit vector λi. Of the two models obtained, one has negative vacuum energy ...

  14. A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

    2006-01-01

    We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

  15. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

  16. Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng

    2018-07-01

    In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Improvement of and Parameter Identification for the Bimodal Time-Varying Modified Kanai-Tajimi Power Spectral Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiguo Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Kanai-Tajimi power spectrum filtering method proposed by Du Xiuli et al., a genetic algorithm and a quadratic optimization identification technique are employed to improve the bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model and the parameter identification method proposed by Vlachos et al. Additionally, a method for modeling time-varying power spectrum parameters for ground motion is proposed. The 8244 Orion and Chi-Chi earthquake accelerograms are selected as examples for time-varying power spectral model parameter identification and ground motion simulations to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved bimodal time-varying modified Kanai-Tajimi power spectral model. The results of this study provide important references for designing ground motion inputs for seismic analyses of major engineering structures.

  18. Influence of Joint Angle on EMG-Torque Model During Constant-Posture, Torque-Varying Contractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pu; Liu, Lukai; Clancy, Edward A

    2015-11-01

    Relating the electromyogram (EMG) to joint torque is useful in various application areas, including prosthesis control, ergonomics and clinical biomechanics. Limited study has related EMG to torque across varied joint angles, particularly when subjects performed force-varying contractions or when optimized modeling methods were utilized. We related the biceps-triceps surface EMG of 22 subjects to elbow torque at six joint angles (spanning 60° to 135°) during constant-posture, torque-varying contractions. Three nonlinear EMG σ -torque models, advanced EMG amplitude (EMG σ ) estimation processors (i.e., whitened, multiple-channel) and the duration of data used to train models were investigated. When EMG-torque models were formed separately for each of the six distinct joint angles, a minimum "gold standard" error of 4.01±1.2% MVC(F90) resulted (i.e., error relative to maximum voluntary contraction at 90° flexion). This model structure, however, did not directly facilitate interpolation across angles. The best model which did so achieved a statistically equivalent error of 4.06±1.2% MVC(F90). Results demonstrated that advanced EMG σ processors lead to improved joint torque estimation as do longer model training durations.

  19. Monopoly models with time-varying demand function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad

    2018-05-01

    We study a family of monopoly models for markets characterized by time-varying demand functions, in which a boundedly rational agent chooses output levels on the basis of a gradient adjustment mechanism. After presenting the model for a generic framework, we analytically study the case of cyclically alternating demand functions. We show that both the perturbation size and the agent's reactivity to profitability variation signals can have counterintuitive roles on the resulting period-2 cycles and on their stability. In particular, increasing the perturbation size can have both a destabilizing and a stabilizing effect on the resulting dynamics. Moreover, in contrast with the case of time-constant demand functions, the agent's reactivity is not just destabilizing, but can improve stability, too. This means that a less cautious behavior can provide better performance, both with respect to stability and to achieved profits. We show that, even if the decision mechanism is very simple and is not able to always provide the optimal production decisions, achieved profits are very close to those optimal. Finally, we show that in agreement with the existing empirical literature, the price series obtained simulating the proposed model exhibit a significant deviation from normality and large volatility, in particular when underlying deterministic dynamics become unstable and complex.

  20. A hepatitis C virus infection model with time-varying drug effectiveness: solution and analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica M Conway

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simple models of therapy for viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus (HCV or human immunodeficiency virus assume that, once therapy is started, the drug has a constant effectiveness. More realistic models have assumed either that the drug effectiveness depends on the drug concentration or that the effectiveness varies over time. Here a previously introduced varying-effectiveness (VE model is studied mathematically in the context of HCV infection. We show that while the model is linear, it has no closed-form solution due to the time-varying nature of the effectiveness. We then show that the model can be transformed into a Bessel equation and derive an analytic solution in terms of modified Bessel functions, which are defined as infinite series, with time-varying arguments. Fitting the solution to data from HCV infected patients under therapy has yielded values for the parameters in the model. We show that for biologically realistic parameters, the predicted viral decay on therapy is generally biphasic and resembles that predicted by constant-effectiveness (CE models. We introduce a general method for determining the time at which the transition between decay phases occurs based on calculating the point of maximum curvature of the viral decay curve. For the parameter regimes of interest, we also find approximate solutions for the VE model and establish the asymptotic behavior of the system. We show that the rate of second phase decay is determined by the death rate of infected cells multiplied by the maximum effectiveness of therapy, whereas the rate of first phase decline depends on multiple parameters including the rate of increase of drug effectiveness with time.

  1. Control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying modelling of dielectric elastomer actuators with frequency response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, William R; Dodd, Tony J; Anderson, Sean R; Wilson, Emma D; Porrill, John; Assaf, Tareq; Rossiter, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Current models of dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) are mostly constrained to first principal descriptions that are not well suited to the application of control design due to their computational complexity. In this work we describe an integrated framework for the identification of control focused, data driven and time-varying DEA models that allow advanced analysis of nonlinear system dynamics in the frequency-domain. Experimentally generated input–output data (voltage-displacement) was used to identify control-focused, nonlinear and time-varying dynamic models of a set of film-type DEAs. The model description used was the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input structure. Frequency response analysis of the DEA dynamics was performed using generalized frequency response functions, providing insight and a comparison into the time-varying dynamics across a set of DEA actuators. The results demonstrated that models identified within the presented framework provide a compact and accurate description of the system dynamics. The frequency response analysis revealed variation in the time-varying dynamic behaviour of DEAs fabricated to the same specifications. These results suggest that the modelling and analysis framework presented here is a potentially useful tool for future work in guiding DEA actuator design and fabrication for application domains such as soft robotics. (paper)

  2. Time-varying coefficient estimation in SURE models. Application to portfolio management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casas, Isabel; Ferreira, Eva; Orbe, Susan

    This paper provides a detailed analysis of the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator for a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model with time-varying coefficients (tv-SURE) under very general conditions. Theoretical results together with a simulation study differentiates the cases...

  3. Calibration device for wide range monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kodoku, Masaya; Sato, Toshifumi.

    1989-01-01

    The calibration device for a wide range monitor according to the present invention can continuously calibrate the entire counting regions of a wide range monitor. The wide range monitor detect the reactor power in the neutron source region by means of a pulse counting method and detects the reactor power in the intermediate region by means of a cambell method. A calibration signal outputting means is disposed for continuously outputting, as such calibration signals, pulse number varying signals in which the number of pulses per unit time varies depending on the reactor power in the neutron source region to be simulated and amplitude square means varying signal in which the mean square value of amplitude varies depending on the reactor power in the intermediate region to be simulated. By using both of the calibration signals, calibration can be conducted for the nuclear reactor power in the neutron source region and the intermediate region even if the calibration is made over two regions, further, calibration for the period present over the two region can be conducted easily as well. (I.S.)

  4. Research on Adaptive Neural Network Control System Based on Nonlinear U-Model with Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengxia Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available U-model can approximate a large class of smooth nonlinear time-varying delay system to any accuracy by using time-varying delay parameters polynomial. This paper proposes a new approach, namely, U-model approach, to solving the problems of analysis and synthesis for nonlinear systems. Based on the idea of discrete-time U-model with time-varying delay, the identification algorithm of adaptive neural network is given for the nonlinear model. Then, the controller is designed by using the Newton-Raphson formula and the stability analysis is given for the closed-loop nonlinear systems. Finally, illustrative examples are given to show the validity and applicability of the obtained results.

  5. System-wide Benchmark Simulation Model for integrated analysis of urban wastewater systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saagi, R.; Flores-Alsina, X.; Gernaey, K. V.

    Interactions between different components (sewer, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and river) of an urban wastewater system (UWS) are widely recognized (Benedetti et al., 2013). This has resulted in an increasing interest in the modelling of the UWS. System-wide models take into account the inte...

  6. Structural nested mean models for assessing time-varying effect moderation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Ten Have, Thomas; Murphy, Susan A

    2010-03-01

    This article considers the problem of assessing causal effect moderation in longitudinal settings in which treatment (or exposure) is time varying and so are the covariates said to moderate its effect. Intermediate causal effects that describe time-varying causal effects of treatment conditional on past covariate history are introduced and considered as part of Robins' structural nested mean model. Two estimators of the intermediate causal effects, and their standard errors, are presented and discussed: The first is a proposed two-stage regression estimator. The second is Robins' G-estimator. The results of a small simulation study that begins to shed light on the small versus large sample performance of the estimators, and on the bias-variance trade-off between the two estimators are presented. The methodology is illustrated using longitudinal data from a depression study.

  7. A simple analytical model for dynamics of time-varying target leverage ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, C. F.; Hui, C. H.

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we have formulated a simple theoretical model for the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio of a firm under some assumptions based upon empirical observations. In our theoretical model the time evolution of the target leverage ratio of a firm can be derived self-consistently from a set of coupled Ito's stochastic differential equations governing the leverage ratios of an ensemble of firms by the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation approach. The theoretically derived time paths of the target leverage ratio bear great resemblance to those used in the time-dependent stationary-leverage (TDSL) model [Hui et al., Int. Rev. Financ. Analy. 15, 220 (2006)]. Thus, our simple model is able to provide a theoretical foundation for the selected time paths of the target leverage ratio in the TDSL model. We also examine how the pace of the adjustment of a firm's target ratio, the volatility of the leverage ratio and the current leverage ratio affect the dynamics of the time-varying target leverage ratio. Hence, with the proposed dynamics of the time-dependent target leverage ratio, the TDSL model can be readily applied to generate the default probabilities of individual firms and to assess the default risk of the firms.

  8. Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helbich, M; Griffith, D

    2016-01-01

    Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

  9. A discrete time-varying internal model-based approach for high precision tracking of a multi-axis servo gantry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Yan, Peng; Jiang, Huan; Ye, Peiqing

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we consider the discrete time-varying internal model-based control design for high precision tracking of complicated reference trajectories generated by time-varying systems. Based on a novel parallel time-varying internal model structure, asymptotic tracking conditions for the design of internal model units are developed, and a low order robust time-varying stabilizer is further synthesized. In a discrete time setting, the high precision tracking control architecture is deployed on a Voice Coil Motor (VCM) actuated servo gantry system, where numerical simulations and real time experimental results are provided, achieving the tracking errors around 3.5‰ for frequency-varying signals. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Vesicle biomechanics in a time-varying magnetic field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hui; Curcuru, Austen

    2015-01-01

    Cells exhibit distortion when exposed to a strong electric field, suggesting that the field imposes control over cellular biomechanics. Closed pure lipid bilayer membranes (vesicles) have been widely used for the experimental and theoretical studies of cellular biomechanics under this electrodeformation. An alternative method used to generate an electric field is by electromagnetic induction with a time-varying magnetic field. References reporting the magnetic control of cellular mechanics have recently emerged. However, theoretical analysis of the cellular mechanics under a time-varying magnetic field is inadequate. We developed an analytical theory to investigate the biomechanics of a modeled vesicle under a time-varying magnetic field. Following previous publications and to simplify the calculation, this model treated the inner and suspending media as lossy dielectrics, the membrane thickness set at zero, and the electric resistance of the membrane assumed to be negligible. This work provided the first analytical solutions for the surface charges, electric field, radial pressure, overall translational forces, and rotational torques introduced on a vesicle by the time-varying magnetic field. Frequency responses of these measures were analyzed, particularly the frequency used clinically by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The induced surface charges interacted with the electric field to produce a biomechanical impact upon the vesicle. The distribution of the induced surface charges depended on the orientation of the coil and field frequency. The densities of these charges were trivial at low frequency ranges, but significant at high frequency ranges. The direction of the radial force on the vesicle was dependent on the conductivity ratio between the vesicle and the medium. At relatively low frequencies (biomechanics under a time-varying magnetic field. Biological effects of clinical TMS are not likely to occur via alteration of the biomechanics of brain

  11. Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

    2001-11-09

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

  12. A New Extension of the Binomial Error Model for Responses to Items of Varying Difficulty in Educational Testing and Attitude Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Wiley

    Full Text Available We put forward a new item response model which is an extension of the binomial error model first introduced by Keats and Lord. Like the binomial error model, the basic latent variable can be interpreted as a probability of responding in a certain way to an arbitrarily specified item. For a set of dichotomous items, this model gives predictions that are similar to other single parameter IRT models (such as the Rasch model but has certain advantages in more complex cases. The first is that in specifying a flexible two-parameter Beta distribution for the latent variable, it is easy to formulate models for randomized experiments in which there is no reason to believe that either the latent variable or its distribution vary over randomly composed experimental groups. Second, the elementary response function is such that extensions to more complex cases (e.g., polychotomous responses, unfolding scales are straightforward. Third, the probability metric of the latent trait allows tractable extensions to cover a wide variety of stochastic response processes.

  13. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  14. Identification of Affine Linear Parameter Varying Models for Adaptive Interventions in Fibromyalgia Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos, P Lopes; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Azevedo-Perdicoúlis, T-P; Ramos, J A; Younger, Jarred

    2013-12-31

    There is good evidence that naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has a strong neuroprotective role and may be a potential drug for the treatment of fibromyalgia. In previous work, some of the authors used experimental clinical data to identify input-output linear time invariant models that were used to extract useful information about the effect of this drug on fibromyalgia symptoms. Additional factors such as anxiety, stress, mood, and headache, were considered as additive disturbances. However, it seems reasonable to think that these factors do not affect the drug actuation, but only the way in which a participant perceives how the drug actuates on herself. Under this hypothesis the linear time invariant models can be replaced by State-Space Affine Linear Parameter Varying models where the disturbances are seen as a scheduling signal signal only acting at the parameters of the output equation. In this paper a new algorithm for identifying such a model is proposed. This algorithm minimizes a quadratic criterion of the output error. Since the output error is a linear function of some parameters, the Affine Linear Parameter Varying system identification is formulated as a separable nonlinear least squares problem. Likewise other identification algorithms using gradient optimization methods several parameter derivatives are dynamical systems that must be simulated. In order to increase time efficiency a canonical parametrization that minimizes the number of systems to be simulated is chosen. The effectiveness of the algorithm is assessed in a case study where an Affine Parameter Varying Model is identified from the experimental data used in the previous study and compared with the time-invariant model.

  15. Linear parameter-varying modeling and control of the steam temperature in a Canadian SCWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Peiwei, E-mail: sunpeiwei@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Zhang, Jianmin; Su, Guanghui

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • Nonlinearity of Canadian SCWR is analyzed based on step responses and Nyquist plots. • LPV model is derived through Jacobian linearization and curve fitting. • An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized for the steam temperature. • The control performance is evaluated by step disturbances and wide range operation. • The controller can stabilize the system and reject the reactor power disturbance. - Abstract: The Canadian direct-cycle Supercritical Water-cooled Reactor (SCWR) is a pressure-tube type SCWR under development in Canada. The dynamics of the steam temperature have a high degree of nonlinearity and are highly sensitive to reactor power disturbances. Traditional gain scheduling control cannot theoretically guarantee stability for all operating regions. The control performance can also be deteriorated when the controllers are switched. In this paper, a linear parameter-varying (LPV) strategy is proposed to solve such problems. Jacobian linearization and curve fitting are applied to derive the LPV model, which is verified using a nonlinear dynamic model and determined to be sufficiently accurate for control studies. An output feedback H{sub ∞} controller is synthesized to stabilize the steam temperature system and reject reactor power disturbances. The LPV steam temperature controller is implemented using a nonlinear dynamic model, and step changes in the setpoints and typical load patterns are carried out in the testing process. It is demonstrated through numerical simulation that the LPV controller not only stabilizes the steam temperature under different disturbances but also efficiently rejects reactor power disturbances and suppresses the steam temperature variation at different power levels. The LPV approach is effective in solving control problems of the steam temperature in the Canadian SCWR.

  16. Modeling and Analysis of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester with Varying Cross-Sectional Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maiara Rosa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the modeling and on the experimental verification of electromechanically coupled beams with varying cross-sectional area for piezoelectric energy harvesting. The governing equations are formulated using the Rayleigh-Ritz method and Euler-Bernoulli assumptions. A load resistance is considered in the electrical domain for the estimate of the electric power output of each geometric configuration. The model is first verified against the analytical results for a rectangular bimorph with tip mass reported in the literature. The experimental verification of the model is also reported for a tapered bimorph cantilever with tip mass. The effects of varying cross-sectional area and tip mass on the electromechanical behavior of piezoelectric energy harvesters are also discussed. An issue related to the estimation of the optimal load resistance (that gives the maximum power output on beam shape optimization problems is also discussed.

  17. Time-varying effect moderation using the structural nested mean model: estimation using inverse-weighted regression with residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almirall, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Yuen, Robert A.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    This article considers the problem of examining time-varying causal effect moderation using observational, longitudinal data in which treatment, candidate moderators, and possible confounders are time varying. The structural nested mean model (SNMM) is used to specify the moderated time-varying causal effects of interest in a conditional mean model for a continuous response given time-varying treatments and moderators. We present an easy-to-use estimator of the SNMM that combines an existing regression-with-residuals (RR) approach with an inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) strategy. The RR approach has been shown to identify the moderated time-varying causal effects if the time-varying moderators are also the sole time-varying confounders. The proposed IPTW+RR approach provides estimators of the moderated time-varying causal effects in the SNMM in the presence of an additional, auxiliary set of known and measured time-varying confounders. We use a small simulation experiment to compare IPTW+RR versus the traditional regression approach and to compare small and large sample properties of asymptotic versus bootstrap estimators of the standard errors for the IPTW+RR approach. This article clarifies the distinction between time-varying moderators and time-varying confounders. We illustrate the methodology in a case study to assess if time-varying substance use moderates treatment effects on future substance use. PMID:23873437

  18. Modeling passive power generation in a temporally-varying temperature environment via thermoelectrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bomberger, Cory C.; Attia, Peter M.; Prasad, Ajay K.; Zide, Joshua M.O.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a model to predict the power generation of a thermoelectric generator in a temporally-varying temperature environment. The model employs a thermoelectric plate sandwiched between two different heat exchangers to convert a temporal temperature gradient in the environment to a spatial temperature gradient within the device suitable for thermoelectric power generation. The two heat exchangers are designed such that their temperatures respond to a change in the environment's temperature at different rates which sets up a temperature differential across the thermoelectric and results in power generation. In this model, radiative and convective heat transfer between the device and its surroundings, and heat flow between the two heat exchangers across the thermoelectric plate are considered. The model is simulated for power generation in Death Valley, CA during the summer using the diurnal variation of air temperature and radiative exchange with the sun and night sky as heat sources and sinks. The optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed. Additional applications of this device are considered. -- Highlights: • Thermoelectric power generation with time-varying temperature is modeled. • The ability to generate power without a natural spatial gradient is demonstrated. • Time dependent heat-transfer and differential heat flow rates are considered. • Optimization of power generation via scaling the device size is discussed

  19. Modeling Nonstationary Emotion Dynamics in Dyads using a Time-Varying Vector-Autoregressive Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bringmann, Laura F; Ferrer, Emilio; Hamaker, Ellen L; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2018-01-01

    Emotion dynamics are likely to arise in an interpersonal context. Standard methods to study emotions in interpersonal interaction are limited because stationarity is assumed. This means that the dynamics, for example, time-lagged relations, are invariant across time periods. However, this is generally an unrealistic assumption. Whether caused by an external (e.g., divorce) or an internal (e.g., rumination) event, emotion dynamics are prone to change. The semi-parametric time-varying vector-autoregressive (TV-VAR) model is based on well-studied generalized additive models, implemented in the software R. The TV-VAR can explicitly model changes in temporal dependency without pre-existing knowledge about the nature of change. A simulation study is presented, showing that the TV-VAR model is superior to the standard time-invariant VAR model when the dynamics change over time. The TV-VAR model is applied to empirical data on daily feelings of positive affect (PA) from a single couple. Our analyses indicate reliable changes in the male's emotion dynamics over time, but not in the female's-which were not predicted by her own affect or that of her partner. This application illustrates the usefulness of using a TV-VAR model to detect changes in the dynamics in a system.

  20. Kosterlitz-Thouless transitions in simple spin-models with strongly varying vortex densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Himbergen, J.E.J.M. van

    1985-01-01

    A generalized XY-model, consisting of a family of nearest neighbour potentials of varying shape, for classical planar spins on a two-dimensional square lattice is analysed by a combination of Migdal-Kadanoff real-space renormalization and Monte Carlo simulations on a sequence of finite lattices of

  1. Behavior of cosmological models with varying G

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, J.D.; Parsons, P.

    1997-01-01

    We provide a detailed analysis of Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes in a wide range of scalar-tensor theories of gravity. We apply solution-generating methods to three parametrized classes of scalar-tensor theory which lead naturally to general relativity in the weak-field limit. We restrict the parameters which specify these theories by the requirements imposed by the weak-field tests of gravitation theories in the solar system and by the requirement that viable cosmological solutions be obtained. We construct a range of exact solutions for open, closed, and flat isotropic universes containing matter with equation of state p≤(1)/(3)ρ and in vacuum. We study the range of early- and late-time behaviors displayed, examine when there is a open-quotes bounceclose quotes at early times, and expansion maxima in closed models. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  2. A varying-α brane world cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youm, Donam

    2001-08-01

    We study the brane world cosmology in the RS2 model where the electric charge varies with time in the manner described by the varying fine-structure constant theory of Bekenstein. We map such varying electric charge cosmology to the dual variable-speed-of-light cosmology by changing system of units. We comment on cosmological implications for such cosmological models. (author)

  3. Multi-Step Time Series Forecasting with an Ensemble of Varied Length Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yicun; Yin, Hujun

    2018-05-01

    Many real-world problems require modeling and forecasting of time series, such as weather temperature, electricity demand, stock prices and foreign exchange (FX) rates. Often, the tasks involve predicting over a long-term period, e.g. several weeks or months. Most existing time series models are inheritably for one-step prediction, that is, predicting one time point ahead. Multi-step or long-term prediction is difficult and challenging due to the lack of information and uncertainty or error accumulation. The main existing approaches, iterative and independent, either use one-step model recursively or treat the multi-step task as an independent model. They generally perform poorly in practical applications. In this paper, as an extension of the self-organizing mixture autoregressive (AR) model, the varied length mixture (VLM) models are proposed to model and forecast time series over multi-steps. The key idea is to preserve the dependencies between the time points within the prediction horizon. Training data are segmented to various lengths corresponding to various forecasting horizons, and the VLM models are trained in a self-organizing fashion on these segments to capture these dependencies in its component AR models of various predicting horizons. The VLM models form a probabilistic mixture of these varied length models. A combination of short and long VLM models and an ensemble of them are proposed to further enhance the prediction performance. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and their marked improvements over the existing methods are demonstrated through a number of experiments on synthetic data, real-world FX rates and weather temperatures.

  4. Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

    2013-02-01

    When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis of soybean primary root under varying water-deficit conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Li; Prince, Silvas; Valliyodan, Babu; Joshi, Trupti; Maldonado dos Santos, Joao V; Wang, Jiaojiao; Lin, Li; Wan, Jinrong; Wang, Yongqin; Xu, Dong; Nguyen, Henry T

    2016-01-15

    Soybean is a major crop that provides an important source of protein and oil to humans and animals, but its production can be dramatically decreased by the occurrence of drought stress. Soybeans can survive drought stress if there is a robust and deep root system at the early vegetative growth stage. However, little is known about the genome-wide molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root system architecture. This study was performed to gain knowledge on transcriptome changes and related molecular mechanisms contributing to soybean root development under water limited conditions. The soybean Williams 82 genotype was subjected to very mild stress (VMS), mild stress (MS) and severe stress (SS) conditions, as well as recovery from the severe stress after re-watering (SR). In total, 6,609 genes in the roots showed differential expression patterns in response to different water-deficit stress levels. Genes involved in hormone (Auxin/Ethylene), carbohydrate, and cell wall-related metabolism (XTH/lipid/flavonoids/lignin) pathways were differentially regulated in the soybean root system. Several transcription factors (TFs) regulating root growth and responses under varying water-deficit conditions were identified and the expression patterns of six TFs were found to be common across the stress levels. Further analysis on the whole plant level led to the finding of tissue-specific or water-deficit levels specific regulation of transcription factors. Analysis of the over-represented motif of different gene groups revealed several new cis-elements associated with different levels of water deficit. The expression patterns of 18 genes were confirmed byquantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction method and demonstrated the accuracy and effectiveness of RNA-Seq. The primary root specific transcriptome in soybean can enable a better understanding of the root response to water deficit conditions. The genes detected in root tissues that were associated with

  6. Effects of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzat, S.; Farengo, R.

    2005-01-01

    The consequences of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model, which captures the basic features of transport in plasmas and was recently introduced in Ref. 1 [B. Ph. van Milligen et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2272 (2004)], are studied. Different superdiffusive transport mechanisms generated by a family of distributions with algebraic decays (Tsallis distributions) are considered. It is observed that the possibility of changing the superdiffusive transport mechanism improves the flexibility of the model for describing different situations. The use of the model to describe the low (L) and high (H) confinement modes is also analyzed

  7. Inflation and late-time acceleration in braneworld cosmological models with varying brane tension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.C.; Cheng, K.S.; Harko, T.

    2010-01-01

    Braneworld models with variable brane tension λ introduce a new degree of freedom that allows for evolving gravitational and cosmological constants, the latter being a natural candidate for dark energy. We consider a thermodynamic interpretation of the varying brane tension models, by showing that the field equations with variable λ can be interpreted as describing matter creation in a cosmological framework. The particle creation rate is determined by the variation rate of the brane tension, as well as by the brane-bulk energy-matter transfer rate. We investigate the effect of a variable brane tension on the cosmological evolution of the Universe, in the framework of a particular model in which the brane tension is an exponentially dependent function of the scale factor. The resulting cosmology shows the presence of an initial inflationary expansion, followed by a decelerating phase, and by a smooth transition towards a late accelerated de Sitter type expansion. The varying brane tension is also responsible for the generation of the matter in the Universe (reheating period). The physical constraints on the model parameters, resulting from the observational cosmological data, are also investigated. (orig.)

  8. Surface and canopy fuels vary widely in 24-yr old postfire lodgepole pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, K. N.; Turner, M.; Romme, W. H.; Tinker, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme fire seasons have become common in western North America, and the extent of young postfire forests has grown as fire frequency and annual area burned have increased. These young forests will set the stage for future fires, but an assessment of fuel loads in young forests is lacking. The rate of fuel re-accumulation and fuels variability in postfire forest landscapes is needed to anticipate future fire occurrence and behavior in the American West. We studied fuel characteristics in young lodgepole pine forests that regenerated after the 1988 fires in Yellowstone National Park to address two questions: (1) How do surface fuel characteristics change with time-since-fire? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary across the Yellowstone landscape 24 years postfire? During summer 2012, we re-measured surface fuels in 11 plots that were established in 1996 (8 yrs post fire), and we measured surface and canopy fuels in 82 stands (each 0.25 ha) distributed across the Yellowstone post-1988 fire landscape. In the remeasured plots, surface fuel loads generally increased over the last 16 years. One-hr fuels did not change between sample dates, but all other fuel classes (i.e., 10-hr, 100-hr, and 1000-hr) increased by a factor of two or three. Within the sample timeframe, variability of fuel loads within stands decreased significantly. The coefficients of variation decreased for all fuel classes by 23% to 67%. Data from the 82 plots revealed that canopy and surface fuels in 24-year-old stands varied tremendously across the Yellowstone landscape. Live tree densities spanned 0 to 344,067 trees ha-1, producing a mean available canopy fuel load of 7.7 Mg ha-1 and a wide range from 0 to 47 Mg ha-1. Total surface fuel loads averaged 130 Mg ha-1 and ranged from 49 to 229 Mg ha-1, of which 90% was in the 1000-hr fuel class. The mass of fine surface fuels (i.e., litter/duff, 1-hr, 10-hr, and herbaceous fuels) and canopy fuels (i.e., foliage and 1-hr branches) were strongly and

  9. Zhang neural network for online solution of time-varying convex quadratic program subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yunong; Li Zhan

    2009-01-01

    In this Letter, by following Zhang et al.'s method, a recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) is developed and analyzed for solving online the time-varying convex quadratic-programming problem subject to time-varying linear-equality constraints. Different from conventional gradient-based neural networks (GNN), such a ZNN model makes full use of the time-derivative information of time-varying coefficient. The resultant ZNN model is theoretically proved to have global exponential convergence to the time-varying theoretical optimal solution of the investigated time-varying convex quadratic program. Computer-simulation results further substantiate the effectiveness, efficiency and novelty of such ZNN model and method.

  10. Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

  11. Sunda-Banda Arc Transition: Marine Wide-Angle Seismic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgin, A.; Planert, L.; Kopp, H.; Mueller, C.; Lueschen, E.; Engels, M.; Flueh, E.; Djajadihardja, Y.; Sindbad Working Group, T

    2008-12-01

    The Sunda-Banda Arc transition is the region of active convergence and collision of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian Plates. The style of subduction changes from an oceanic-island arc subduction to a continental- island arc collision. The character of the incoming plate varies from the rough topography of the Roo Rise, to the smooth seafloor of the Abyssal Plain off Bali, Sumbawa. Forearc structures include well-developed forearc basins and an accretionary prism/outer forearc high of variable size and shape. To quantify the variability of structure of the lower plate and the effects on the upper plate a refraction seismic survey was carried during cruise SO190-2. A total of 245 ocean bottom seismometers were deployed along 1020 nm of wide-angle seismic profiles in four major north-south oriented corridors. To assess the velocity structure we used a tomographic method which jointly inverts for refracted and reflected phases. The sedimentary layers of the models, obtained by the analysis of high-resolution MCS data (see Lueschen et al), were incorporated into the starting model. The obtained models exhibit strong changes of the incoming oceanic crust for the different portions of the margin: The westernmost profile off eastern Java shows a crustal thickness of more than 15 km, most likely related to the presence of an oceanic plateau. Profiles off Lombok reveal an oceanic crust of 8-9 km average thickness in the Argo Abyssal Plain. Crustal and upper mantle velocities are slightly decreased within an area of about 50-60 km seaward of the trench, indicating fracturing and related serpentinization due to bending of the oceanic crust and associated normal faulting. The outer forearc high is characterized by velocities of 2.5-5.5 km/s. For the Lombok Basin, the profiles show a sedimentary infill of up to 3.5 km thick and typical sediment velocities of 1.75-3.0 km/s. A reflector at 16 km depth and velocity values of 7.4-7.8 km/s beneath it suggest the presence of a shallow

  12. The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

    2017-12-01

    Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

  13. Specification and testing of Multiplicative Time-Varying GARCH models with applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smooth...... is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns....

  14. Extending the Utility of the Parabolic Approximation in Medical Ultrasound Using Wide-Angle Diffraction Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soneson, Joshua E

    2017-04-01

    Wide-angle parabolic models are commonly used in geophysics and underwater acoustics but have seen little application in medical ultrasound. Here, a wide-angle model for continuous-wave high-intensity ultrasound beams is derived, which approximates the diffraction process more accurately than the commonly used Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov (KZK) equation without increasing implementation complexity or computing time. A method for preventing the high spatial frequencies often present in source boundary conditions from corrupting the solution is presented. Simulations of shallowly focused axisymmetric beams using both the wide-angle and standard parabolic models are compared to assess the accuracy with which they model diffraction effects. The wide-angle model proposed here offers improved focusing accuracy and less error throughout the computational domain than the standard parabolic model, offering a facile method for extending the utility of existing KZK codes.

  15. Effects of time-varying β in SNLS3 on constraining interacting dark energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shuang; Wang, Yong-Zhen; Geng, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Xin

    2014-01-01

    It has been found that, for the Supernova Legacy Survey three-year (SNLS3) data, there is strong evidence for the redshift evolution of the color-luminosity parameter β. In this paper, adopting the w-cold-dark-matter (wCDM) model and considering its interacting extensions (with three kinds of interaction between dark sectors), we explore the evolution of β and its effects on parameter estimation. In addition to the SNLS3 data, we also use the latest Planck distance priors data, the galaxy clustering data extracted from sloan digital sky survey data release 7 and baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey, as well as the direct measurement of Hubble constant H 0 from the Hubble Space Telescope observation. We find that, for all the interacting dark energy (IDE) models, adding a parameter of β can reduce χ 2 by ∝34, indicating that a constant β is ruled out at 5.8σ confidence level. Furthermore, it is found that varying β can significantly change the fitting results of various cosmological parameters: for all the dark energy models considered in this paper, varying β yields a larger fractional CDM densities Ω c0 and a larger equation of state w; on the other side, varying β yields a smaller reduced Hubble constant h for the wCDM model, but it has no impact on h for the three IDE models. This implies that there is a degeneracy between h and coupling parameter γ. Our work shows that the evolution of β is insensitive to the interaction between dark sectors, and then highlights the importance of considering β's evolution in the cosmology fits. (orig.)

  16. A varying coefficient model to measure the effectiveness of mass media anti-smoking campaigns in generating calls to a Quitline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Quang M; Huggins, Richard M; Hwang, Wen-Han; White, Victoria; Erbas, Bircan

    2010-01-01

    Anti-smoking advertisements are an effective population-based smoking reduction strategy. The Quitline telephone service provides a first point of contact for adults considering quitting. Because of data complexity, the relationship between anti-smoking advertising placement, intensity, and time trends in total call volume is poorly understood. In this study we use a recently developed semi-varying coefficient model to elucidate this relationship. Semi-varying coefficient models comprise parametric and nonparametric components. The model is fitted to the daily number of calls to Quitline in Victoria, Australia to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric terms for day-of-the-week effects and to clarify the relationship with target audience rating points (TARPs) for the Quit and nicotine replacement advertising campaigns. The number of calls to Quitline increased with the TARP value of both the Quit and other smoking cessation advertisement; the TARP values associated with the Quit program were almost twice as effective. The varying coefficient term was statistically significant for peak periods with little or no advertising. Semi-varying coefficient models are useful for modeling public health data when there is little or no information on other factors related to the at-risk population. These models are well suited to modeling call volume to Quitline, because the varying coefficient allowed the underlying time trend to depend on fixed covariates that also vary with time, thereby explaining more of the variation in the call model.

  17. Genome-wide association study of handedness excludes simple genetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, J AL; Davison, A; McManus, I C

    2014-01-01

    Handedness is a human behavioural phenotype that appears to be congenital, and is often assumed to be inherited, but for which the developmental origin and underlying causation(s) have been elusive. Models of the genetic basis of variation in handedness have been proposed that fit different features of the observed resemblance between relatives, but none has been decisively tested or a corresponding causative locus identified. In this study, we applied data from well-characterised individuals studied at the London Twin Research Unit. Analysis of genome-wide SNP data from 3940 twins failed to identify any locus associated with handedness at a genome-wide level of significance. The most straightforward interpretation of our analyses is that they exclude the simplest formulations of the ‘right-shift' model of Annett and the ‘dextral/chance' model of McManus, although more complex modifications of those models are still compatible with our observations. For polygenic effects, our study is inadequately powered to reliably detect alleles with effect sizes corresponding to an odds ratio of 1.2, but should have good power to detect effects at an odds ratio of 2 or more. PMID:24065183

  18. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  19. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  20. Proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for length-biased data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feipeng; Chen, Xuerong; Zhou, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Length-biased data arise in many important applications including epidemiological cohort studies, cancer prevention trials and studies of labor economics. Such data are also often subject to right censoring due to loss of follow-up or the end of study. In this paper, we consider a proportional hazards model with varying coefficients for right-censored and length-biased data, which is used to study the interact effect nonlinearly of covariates with an exposure variable. A local estimating equation method is proposed for the unknown coefficients and the intercept function in the model. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established by using the martingale theory and kernel smoothing techniques. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators have an excellent finite-sample performance. The Channing House data is analyzed to demonstrate the applications of the proposed method.

  1. Visualizing time-varying harmonics using filter banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duque, C.A.; Da Silveira, P.M.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2011-01-01

    Although it is well known that Fourier analysis is in reality only accurately applicable to steady state waveforms, it is a widely used tool to study and monitor time-varying signals, such as are commonplace in electrical power systems. The disadvantages of Fourier analysis, such as frequency

  2. Ultra wide band antennas

    CERN Document Server

    Begaud, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Ultra Wide Band Technology (UWB) has reached a level of maturity that allows us to offer wireless links with either high or low data rates. These wireless links are frequently associated with a location capability for which ultimate accuracy varies with the inverse of the frequency bandwidth. Using time or frequency domain waveforms, they are currently the subject of international standards facilitating their commercial implementation. Drawing up a complete state of the art, Ultra Wide Band Antennas is aimed at students, engineers and researchers and presents a summary of internationally recog

  3. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  4. Artificial neural network modeling of DDGS flowability with varying process and storage parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neural Network (NN) modeling techniques were used to predict flowability behavior in distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prepared with varying CDS (10, 15, and 20%, wb), drying temperature (100, 200, and 300°C), cooling temperature (-12, 0, and 35°C) and cooling time (0 and 1 month) levels....

  5. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

  7. Multivariate time-varying volatility modeling using probabilistic fuzzy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Basturk, N.; Almeida, R.J.; Golan, R.; Kaymak, U.

    2016-01-01

    Methods to accurately analyze financial risk have drawn considerable attention in financial institutions. One difficulty in financial risk analysis is the fact that banks and other financial institutions invest in several assets which show time-varying volatilities and hence time-varying financial

  8. A boundary element model for diffraction of water waves on varying water depth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poulin, Sanne

    1997-12-31

    In this thesis a boundary element model for calculating diffraction of water waves on varying water depth is presented. The varying water depth is approximated with a perturbed constant depth in the mild-slope wave equation. By doing this, the domain integral which is a result of the varying depth is no longer a function of the unknown wave potential but only a function of position and the constant depth wave potential. The number of unknowns is the resulting system of equations is thus reduced significantly. The integration procedures in the model are tested very thoroughly and it is found that a combination of analytical integration in the singular region and standard numerical integration outside works very well. The gradient of the wave potential is evaluated successfully using a hypersingular integral equation. Deviations from the analytical solution are only found on the boundary or very close to, but these deviations have no significant influence on the accuracy of the solution. The domain integral is evaluated using the dual reciprocity method. The results are compared with a direct integration of the integral, and the accuracy is quite satisfactory. The problem with irregular frequencies is taken care of by the CBIEM (or CHIEF-method) together with a singular value decomposition technique. This method is simple to implement and works very well. The model is verified using Homma`s island as a test case. The test cases are limited to shallow water since the analytical solution is only valid in this region. Several depth ratios are examined, and it is found that the accuracy of the model increases with increasing wave period and decreasing depth ratio. Short waves, e.g. wind generated waves, can allow depth variations up to approximately 2 before the error exceeds 10%, while long waves can allow larger depth ratios. It is concluded that the perturbation idea is highly usable. A study of (partially) absorbing boundary conditions is also conducted. (EG)

  9. Adenoma detection rate varies greatly during colonoscopy training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Doorn, Sascha C.; Klanderman, Robert B.; Hazewinkel, Yark; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2015-01-01

    The adenoma detection rate (ADR) is considered the most important quality indicator for colonoscopy and varies widely among colonoscopists. It is unknown whether the ADR of gastroenterology consultants can already be predicted during their colonoscopy training. To evaluate the ADR of fellows in

  10. Memory effects in microscopic traffic models and wide scattering in flow-density data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treiber, Martin; Helbing, Dirk

    2003-10-01

    By means of microscopic simulations we show that noninstantaneous adaptation of the driving behavior to the traffic situation together with the conventional method to measure flow-density data provides a possible explanation for the observed inverse-λ shape and the wide scattering of flow-density data in “synchronized” congested traffic. We model a memory effect in the response of drivers to the traffic situation for a wide class of car-following models by introducing an additional dynamical variable (the “subjective level of service”) describing the adaptation of drivers to the surrounding traffic situation during the past few minutes and couple this internal state to parameters of the underlying model that are related to the driving style. For illustration, we use the intelligent-driver model (IDM) as the underlying model, characterize the level of service solely by the velocity, and couple the internal variable to the IDM parameter “time gap” to model an increase of the time gap in congested traffic (“frustration effect”), which is supported by single-vehicle data. We simulate open systems with a bottleneck and obtain flow-density data by implementing “virtual detectors.” The shape, relative size, and apparent “stochasticity” of the region of the scattered data points agree nearly quantitatively with empirical data. Wide scattering is even observed for identical vehicles, although the proposed model is a time-continuous, deterministic, single-lane car-following model with a unique fundamental diagram.

  11. Bounds and asymptotics for orthogonal polynomials for varying weights

    CERN Document Server

    Levin, Eli

    2018-01-01

    This book establishes bounds and asymptotics under almost minimal conditions on the varying weights, and applies them to universality limits and entropy integrals.  Orthogonal polynomials associated with varying weights play a key role in analyzing random matrices and other topics.  This book will be of use to a wide community of mathematicians, physicists, and statisticians dealing with techniques of potential theory, orthogonal polynomials, approximation theory, as well as random matrices. .

  12. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  14. Analyzing the term structure of interest rates using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with time-varying parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Mallee, M.I.P.; van der Wel, M.

    2010-01-01

    In this article we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson-Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector autoregressive

  15. Varying constants, black holes, and quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlip, S.

    2003-01-01

    Tentative observations and theoretical considerations have recently led to renewed interest in models of fundamental physics in which certain 'constants' vary in time. Assuming fixed black hole mass and the standard form of the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, Davies, Davis and Lineweaver have argued that the laws of black hole thermodynamics disfavor models in which the fundamental electric charge e changes. I show that with these assumptions, similar considerations severely constrain 'varying speed of light' models, unless we are prepared to abandon cherished assumptions about quantum gravity. Relaxation of these assumptions permits sensible theories of quantum gravity with ''varying constants,'' but also eliminates the thermodynamic constraints, though the black hole mass spectrum may still provide some restrictions on the range of allowable models

  16. Time-Varying Hydraulic Gradient Model of Paste-Like Tailings in Long-Distance Pipeline Transportation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Paste-like tailings slurry (PTLS is always simplified as a Bingham plastic fluid, leading to excessive computational errors in the calculation of the hydraulic gradient. In the case of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation, to explore a high-precision and reliable hydraulic gradient formula, the rheological behavior of paste-like tailings slurry was analyzed, a time-varying hydraulic gradient model was constructed, and a series of laboratory shear tests were conducted. The results indicate that the PTLS shows noticeable shear-thinning characteristics in constant shear tests; the calculated hydraulic gradient declined by about 56%, from 4.44 MPa·km−1 to 1.95 MPa·km−1 within 253 s, and remained constant for the next four hours during the pipeline transportation. Comparing with the balance hydraulic gradient obtained in a semi-industrial loop test, the computational errors of those calculated by using the time-varying hydraulic gradient model, Jinchuan formula, and Shanxi formula are 15%, 78%, and 130%, respectively. Therefore, our model is a feasible and high-precision solution for the calculation of the hydraulic gradient of paste-like tailings in long-distance pipeline transportation.

  17. Performance of a solar chimney by varying design parameters

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kumirai, T

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available the design of solar chimneys to ensure optimal performance. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the performance of an example solar chimney by varying the design parameters and examining their effects on the interior ventilation performance... chimney by varying design parameters Tichaona Kumirai, Researcher, Built Environment CSIR Jan-Hendrik Grobler, DPSS CSIR Dr D.C.U. Conradie, Senior researcher, Built Environment CSIR 1 Introduction Trombe walls and solar chimneys are not widely...

  18. Nonlinear systems time-varying parameter estimation: Application to induction motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenne, Godpromesse [Laboratoire d' Automatique et d' Informatique Appliquee (LAIA), Departement de Genie Electrique, IUT FOTSO Victor, Universite de Dschang, B.P. 134 Bandjoun (Cameroon); Ahmed-Ali, Tarek [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Ingenieurs des Etudes et Techniques d' Armement (ENSIETA), 2 Rue Francois Verny, 29806 Brest Cedex 9 (France); Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, F. [Laboratoire des Signaux et Systemes (L2S), C.N.R.S-SUPELEC, Universite Paris XI, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Arzande, Amir [Departement Energie, Ecole Superieure d' Electricite-SUPELEC, 3 Rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2008-11-15

    In this paper, an algorithm for time-varying parameter estimation for a large class of nonlinear systems is presented. The proof of the convergence of the estimates to their true values is achieved using Lyapunov theories and does not require that the classical persistent excitation condition be satisfied by the input signal. Since the induction motor (IM) is widely used in several industrial sectors, the algorithm developed is potentially useful for adjusting the controller parameters of variable speed drives. The method proposed is simple and easily implementable in real-time. The application of this approach to on-line estimation of the rotor resistance of IM shows a rapidly converging estimate in spite of measurement noise, discretization effects, parameter uncertainties (e.g. inaccuracies on motor inductance values) and modeling inaccuracies. The robustness analysis for this IM application also revealed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the stator resistance variations within a wide range. The merits of the proposed algorithm in the case of on-line time-varying rotor resistance estimation are demonstrated via experimental results in various operating conditions of the induction motor. The experimental results obtained demonstrate that the application of the proposed algorithm to update on-line the parameters of an adaptive controller (e.g. IM and synchronous machines adaptive control) can improve the efficiency of the industrial process. The other interesting features of the proposed method include fault detection/estimation and adaptive control of IM and synchronous machines. (author)

  19. Benefits of a Unified LaSRS++ Simulation for NAS-Wide and High-Fidelity Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaab, Patricia; Madden, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The LaSRS++ high-fidelity vehicle simulation was extended in 2012 to support a NAS-wide simulation mode. Since the initial proof-of-concept, the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulation is maturing into a research-ready tool. A primary benefit of this new capability is the consolidation of the two modeling paradigms under a single framework to save cost, facilitate iterative concept testing between the two tools, and to promote communication and model sharing between user communities at Langley. Specific benefits of each type of modeling are discussed along with the expected benefits of the unified framework. Current capability details of the LaSRS++ NAS-wide simulations are provided, including the visualization tool, live data interface, trajectory generators, terminal routing for arrivals and departures, maneuvering, re-routing, navigation, winds, and turbulence. The plan for future development is also described.

  20. Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying GQARCH(1,1-M Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Anyfantaki

    2011-01-01

    analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only ( computational operations, where is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying GQARCH(1,1-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.

  1. Nonlinear Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Torsional Spring-Loaded Antibacklash Gear with Time-Varying Meshing Stiffness and Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Torsional spring-loaded antibacklash gear which can improve the transmission precision is widely used in many precision transmission fields. It is very important to investigate the dynamic characteristics of antibacklash gear. In the paper, applied force analysis is completed in detail. Then, defining the starting point of double-gear meshing as initial position, according to the meshing characteristic of antibacklash gear, single- or double-tooth meshing states of two gear pairs and the transformation relationship at any moment are determined. Based on this, a nonlinear model of antibacklash gear with time-varying friction and meshing stiffness is proposed. The influences of friction and variations of torsional spring stiffness, damping ratio and preload on dynamic transmission error (DTE are analyzed by numerical calculation and simulation, and the results show that antibacklash gear can increase the composite meshing stiffness; when the torsional spring stiffness is large enough, the oscillating components of the DTE (ODTE and the RMS of the DTE (RDTE trend to be a constant value; the variations of ODTE and RDTE are not significant, unless preload exceeds a certain value.

  2. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate nonlinear, parameter-varying (PV),...

  3. Time-varying metamaterials based on graphene-wrapped microwires: Modeling and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salary, Mohammad Mahdi; Jafar-Zanjani, Samad; Mosallaei, Hossein

    2018-03-01

    The successful realization of metamaterials and metasurfaces requires the judicious choice of constituent elements. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of time-varying metamaterials in the terahertz frequency regime by utilizing graphene-wrapped microwires as building blocks and modulation of graphene conductivity through exterior electrical gating. These elements enable enhancement of light-graphene interaction by utilizing optical resonances associated with Mie scattering, yielding a large tunability and modulation depth. We develop a semianalytical framework based on transition-matrix formulation for modeling and analysis of periodic and aperiodic arrays of such time-varying building blocks. The proposed method is validated against full-wave numerical results obtained using the finite-difference time-domain method. It provides an ideal tool for mathematical synthesis and analysis of space-time gradient metamaterials, eliminating the need for computationally expensive numerical models. Moreover, it allows for a wider exploration of exotic space-time scattering phenomena in time-modulated metamaterials. We apply the method to explore the role of modulation parameters in the generation of frequency harmonics and their emerging wavefronts. Several potential applications of such platforms are demonstrated, including frequency conversion, holographic generation of frequency harmonics, and spatiotemporal manipulation of light. The presented results provide key physical insights to design time-modulated functional metadevices using various building blocks and open up new directions in the emerging paradigm of time-modulated metamaterials.

  4. The features of modelling semiconductor lasers with a wide contact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rzhanov Alexey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aspects of calculating the dynamics and statics of powerful semiconductor laser diodes radiation are investigated. It takes into account the main physical mechanisms influencing power, spectral composition, far and near field of laser radiation. It outlines a dynamic distributed model of a semiconductor laser with a wide contact and possible algorithms for its implementation.

  5. Nonlinear Parameter-Varying AeroServoElastic Reduced Order Model for Aerostructural Sensing and Control, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The overall goal of the project is to develop reliable reduced order modeling technologies to automatically generate parameter-varying (PV), aeroservoelastic (ASE)...

  6. The deforestation debate; estimates vary widely over the extent of forest loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monastersky, R.

    1993-01-01

    While tropical forests are vanishing at a disturbing rate, the wide-spread disagreement over deforestation estimates makes it difficult for government officials and scientists to assess the problem. In turn this hampers efforts to gauge the threat of related issues such as habitat destruction and global warming. Creating more confusion is the realization that partly deforested, but not stripped, lands have not been completely taken into account. In addition lands in tropical regions but outside the tropical rain forest are poorly represented. This article uses Brazil as an example of the conflicting estimates. The efforts of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to improve its estimates are described. An on-going NASA project to help is also described

  7. State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

    2016-01-15

    Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.

    2010-01-01

    The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.

  9. A sub-circuit MOSFET model with a wide temperature range including cryogenic temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jia Kan; Sun Weifeng; Shi Longxing, E-mail: jiakan.01@gmail.com [National ASIC System Engineering Research Center, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096 (China)

    2011-06-15

    A sub-circuit SPICE model of a MOSFET for low temperature operation is presented. Two resistors are introduced for the freeze-out effect, and the explicit behavioral models are developed for them. The model can be used in a wide temperature range covering both cryogenic temperature and regular temperatures. (semiconductor devices)

  10. H1N1 influenza viruses varying widely in hemagglutinin stability transmit efficiently from swine to swine and to ferrets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Russier

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available A pandemic-capable influenza virus requires a hemagglutinin (HA surface glycoprotein that is immunologically unseen by most people and is capable of supporting replication and transmission in humans. HA stabilization has been linked to 2009 pH1N1 pandemic potential in humans and H5N1 airborne transmissibility in the ferret model. Swine have served as an intermediate host for zoonotic influenza viruses, yet the evolutionary pressure exerted by this host on HA stability was unknown. For over 70 contemporary swine H1 and H3 isolates, we measured HA activation pH to range from pH 5.1 to 5.9 for H1 viruses and pH 5.3 to 5.8 for H3 viruses. Thus, contemporary swine isolates vary widely in HA stability, having values favored by both avian (pH >5.5 and human and ferret (pH ≤5.5 species. Using an early 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1 virus backbone, we generated three viruses differing by one HA residue that only altered HA stability: WT (pH 5.5, HA1-Y17H (pH 6.0, and HA2-R106K (pH 5.3. All three replicated in pigs and transmitted from pig-to-pig and pig-to-ferret. WT and R106 viruses maintained HA genotype and phenotype after transmission. Y17H (pH 6.0 acquired HA mutations that stabilized the HA protein to pH 5.8 after transmission to pigs and 5.5 after transmission to ferrets. Overall, we found swine support a broad range of HA activation pH for contact transmission and many recent swine H1N1 and H3N2 isolates have stabilized (human-like HA proteins. This constitutes a heightened pandemic risk and underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance and control efforts for swine viruses.

  11. Development of Industry-Wide IS Integration Model in the Agri-Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedman, Jonas; Henningsson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    his paper presents a model explaining industrywide information systems (IS) integration in the agri-industry.Using a theoretical frame of value confi guration analysis and IS integration extent we study 15 organizations. We find that product sensitivity, continuous production, value chain captains...... sensitivity and continuous production process led to higher levels of integration......., and value creation logic explain the industry-wide IS integration. Incompatible value creation logic among stakeholders and the lack of presence of “value chain captains” – powerful actors dominating the entire industry - has and negative impact on industry-wide integration. On the other hand, product...

  12. Lithium-ion battery dynamic model for wide range of operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Ana-Irina; Stroe, Daniel-Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef

    2017-01-01

    In order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery and to determine their suitability for various applications, battery models are needed. An equivalent electrical circuit model is the most common way of representing the behavior of a Li-ion battery. There are different...... characterization tests performed for a wide range of operating conditions (temperature, load current and state-of-charge) on a commercial available 13Ah high-power lithium titanate oxide battery cell. The obtained results were used to parametrize the proposed dynamic model of the battery cell. To assess...

  13. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  14. Modeling intensive longitudinal data with mixtures of nonparametric trajectories and time-varying effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziak, John J; Li, Runze; Tan, Xianming; Shiffman, Saul; Shiyko, Mariya P

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral scientists increasingly collect intensive longitudinal data (ILD), in which phenomena are measured at high frequency and in real time. In many such studies, it is of interest to describe the pattern of change over time in important variables as well as the changing nature of the relationship between variables. Individuals' trajectories on variables of interest may be far from linear, and the predictive relationship between variables of interest and related covariates may also change over time in a nonlinear way. Time-varying effect models (TVEMs; see Tan, Shiyko, Li, Li, & Dierker, 2012) address these needs by allowing regression coefficients to be smooth, nonlinear functions of time rather than constants. However, it is possible that not only observed covariates but also unknown, latent variables may be related to the outcome. That is, regression coefficients may change over time and also vary for different kinds of individuals. Therefore, we describe a finite mixture version of TVEM for situations in which the population is heterogeneous and in which a single trajectory would conceal important, interindividual differences. This extended approach, MixTVEM, combines finite mixture modeling with non- or semiparametric regression modeling, to describe a complex pattern of change over time for distinct latent classes of individuals. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in an empirical example from a smoking cessation study. We provide a versatile SAS macro and R function for fitting MixTVEMs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Fluid approximation analysis of a call center model with time-varying arrivals and after-call work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Kawai

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Important features to be included in queueing-theoretic models of the call center operation are multiple servers, impatient customers, time-varying arrival process, and operator’s after-call work (ACW. We propose a fluid approximation technique for the queueing model with these features by extending the analysis of a similar model without ACW recently developed by Liu and Whitt (2012. Our model assumes that the service for each quantum of fluid consists of a sequence of two stages, the first stage for the conversation with a customer and the second stage for the ACW. When the duration of each stage has exponential, hyperexponential or hypo-exponential distribution, we derive the time-dependent behavior of the content of fluid in each stage of service as well as that in the waiting room. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the system performance for the cases in which the input rate and/or the number of servers vary in sinusoidal fashion as well as in adaptive ways and in stationary cases.

  16. GenoGAM: genome-wide generalized additive models for ChIP-Seq analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Georg; Engelhardt, Alexander; Schulz, Daniel; Schmid, Matthias; Tresch, Achim; Gagneur, Julien

    2017-08-01

    Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by deep sequencing (ChIP-Seq) is a widely used approach to study protein-DNA interactions. Often, the quantities of interest are the differential occupancies relative to controls, between genetic backgrounds, treatments, or combinations thereof. Current methods for differential occupancy of ChIP-Seq data rely however on binning or sliding window techniques, for which the choice of the window and bin sizes are subjective. Here, we present GenoGAM (Genome-wide Generalized Additive Model), which brings the well-established and flexible generalized additive models framework to genomic applications using a data parallelism strategy. We model ChIP-Seq read count frequencies as products of smooth functions along chromosomes. Smoothing parameters are objectively estimated from the data by cross-validation, eliminating ad hoc binning and windowing needed by current approaches. GenoGAM provides base-level and region-level significance testing for full factorial designs. Application to a ChIP-Seq dataset in yeast showed increased sensitivity over existing differential occupancy methods while controlling for type I error rate. By analyzing a set of DNA methylation data and illustrating an extension to a peak caller, we further demonstrate the potential of GenoGAM as a generic statistical modeling tool for genome-wide assays. Software is available from Bioconductor: https://www.bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/GenoGAM.html . gagneur@in.tum.de. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  17. CFD comparison with centrifugal compressor measurements on a wide operating range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnou D.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Centrifugal compressors are widely used in industrial applications thanks to their high efficiency. They are able to provide a wide operating range before reaching the flow barrier or surge limits. Performances and range are described by compressor maps obtained experimentally. After a description of performance test rig, this article compares measured centrifugal compressor performances with computational fluid dynamics results. These computations are performed at steady conditions with R134a refrigerant as fluid. Navier-Stokes equations, coupled with k-ε turbulence model, are solved by the commercial software ANSYS-CFX by means of volume finite method. Input conditions are varied in order to calculate several speed lines. Theoretical isentropic efficiency and theoretical surge line are finally compared to experimental data.

  18. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  19. A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

  20. Spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya with spatially varying coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elphas Okango

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease mapping has become popular in the field of statistics as a method to explain the spatial distribution of disease outcomes and as a tool to help design targeted intervention strategies. Most of these models however have been implemented with assumptions that may be limiting or altogether lead to less meaningful results and hence interpretations. Some of these assumptions include the linearity, stationarity and normality assumptions. Studies have shown that the linearity assumption is not necessarily true for all covariates. Age for example has been found to have a non-linear relationship with HIV and HSV-2 prevalence. Other studies have made stationarity assumption in that one stimulus e.g. education, provokes the same response in all the regions under study and this is also quite restrictive. Responses to stimuli may vary from region to region due to aspects like culture, preferences and attitudes. Methods We perform a spatial modeling of HIV and HSV-2 among women in Kenya, while relaxing these assumptions i.e. the linearity assumption by allowing the covariate age to have a non-linear effect on HIV and HSV-2 prevalence using the random walk model of order 2 and the stationarity assumption by allowing the rest of the covariates to vary spatially using the conditional autoregressive model. The women data used in this study were derived from the 2007 Kenya AIDS indicator survey where women aged 15–49 years were surveyed. A full Bayesian approach was used and the models were implemented in R-INLA software. Results Age was found to have a non-linear relationship with both HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and the spatially varying coefficient model provided a significantly better fit for HSV-2. Age-at first sex also had a greater effect on HSV-2 prevalence in the Coastal and some parts of North Eastern regions suggesting either early marriages or child prostitution. The effect of education on HIV prevalence among women was more

  1. Delay-Dependent Asymptotic Stability of Cohen-Grossberg Models with Multiple Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liao

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical behavior of a class of Cohen-Grossberg models with multiple time-varying delays is studied in detail. Sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure local and global asymptotic stabilities of the equilibrium of this network are derived by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals. The obtained conditions are shown to be less conservative and restrictive than those reported in the known literature. Some numerical examples are included to demonstrate our results.

  2. Wide-band segmented power distribution networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tereshchenko, O.V.; Buesink, Frederik Johannes Karel; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses a novel design of Power Distribution Network (PDN). By physical structuring of the power plane into repetitive symmetrical and asymmetrical segments of varying size, suppression of the propagation of unwanted noise throughout the PDN over a wide frequency range is achieved.

  3. Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renou-Maissant, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Over the past fifteen years, European gas markets have radically changed. In order to build a single European gas market, a new regulatory framework has been established through three European Gas Directives. The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of the reforms in the natural gas industry on consumer prices, with a specific focus on gas prices for industrial use. The strength of the relationship between the industrial gas prices of six western European countries is studied by testing the Law of One Price for the period 1991–2009. Estimations were carried out using both cointegration analysis and time-varying parameter models. Results highlight an emerging and on-going process of convergence between the industrial gas prices in western Europe since 2001 for the six EU member states. The strength and the level of convergence differ widely between countries. Strong integration of gas markets in continental Europe, except for the Belgian market, has been established. It appears that the convergence process between continental countries and the UK is not completed. Thus, the integration of European gas markets remains an open issue and the question of how far integration will proceed will still be widely discussed in the coming years. - Highlights: ► We investigate the integration of European natural gas markets. ► We use both cointegration analysis and time-varying parameter models. ► We show the failure of cointegration techniques to take account of evolving processes. ► An emerging and on-going process of convergence between the industrial gas prices is at work. ► Strong integration of gas markets in continental Europe has been established.

  4. Design of 2D time-varying vector fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D; Zhang, Eugene

    2012-10-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects.

  5. FE Modelling of the Seismic Behavior of Wide Beam-Column Joints Strengthened with CFRP Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Santarsiero

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A large share of reinforced concrete (RC framed buildings is provided with wide beams being a type of beam allowing greater freedom in the architectural arrangement of interiors, beyond further advantage due to fewer formworks needed during the construction. Nevertheless, little attention has been devoted to the seismic vulnerability of this kind of framed RC buildings as well as to the study of strengthening systems purposely developed for wide beams and wide beam-column connections. Under these premises, this paper proposes simple strengthening solutions made by Fibre Reinforced Polymers (FRP systems able to effectively improve seismic capacity through feasible arrangement suitable in case a wide beam is present. On the basis of wide beam-column joints previously tested without strengthening system, detailed nonlinear finite element models were calibrated. Then, an FRP strengthening intervention based on a brand new arrangement was modeled in order to perform additional simulations under seismic actions. This way, the effectiveness of the strengthening intervention was assessed finding out that significant strength and ductility increments were achieved with a relatively simple and cheap strengthening arrangement. Additional research would be desirable in the form of experimental tests on the simulated wide beam-column joints.

  6. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Youbing; Choi, Jiwoong; Hoffman, Eric A.; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Lin, Ching-Long

    2012-01-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C1 continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung. PMID:23794749

  7. A multiscale MDCT image-based breathing lung model with time-varying regional ventilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Youbing, E-mail: youbing-yin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Choi, Jiwoong, E-mail: jiwoong-choi@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Hoffman, Eric A., E-mail: eric-hoffman@uiowa.edu [Department of Radiology, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); Tawhai, Merryn H., E-mail: m.tawhai@auckland.ac.nz [Auckland Bioengineering Institute, The University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand); Lin, Ching-Long, E-mail: ching-long-lin@uiowa.edu [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States); IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A novel algorithm is presented that links local structural variables (regional ventilation and deforming central airways) to global function (total lung volume) in the lung over three imaged lung volumes, to derive a breathing lung model for computational fluid dynamics simulation. The algorithm constitutes the core of an integrative, image-based computational framework for subject-specific simulation of the breathing lung. For the first time, the algorithm is applied to three multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) volumetric lung images of the same individual. A key technique in linking global and local variables over multiple images is an in-house mass-preserving image registration method. Throughout breathing cycles, cubic interpolation is employed to ensure C{sub 1} continuity in constructing time-varying regional ventilation at the whole lung level, flow rate fractions exiting the terminal airways, and airway deformation. The imaged exit airway flow rate fractions are derived from regional ventilation with the aid of a three-dimensional (3D) and one-dimensional (1D) coupled airway tree that connects the airways to the alveolar tissue. An in-house parallel large-eddy simulation (LES) technique is adopted to capture turbulent-transitional-laminar flows in both normal and deep breathing conditions. The results obtained by the proposed algorithm when using three lung volume images are compared with those using only one or two volume images. The three-volume-based lung model produces physiologically-consistent time-varying pressure and ventilation distribution. The one-volume-based lung model under-predicts pressure drop and yields un-physiological lobar ventilation. The two-volume-based model can account for airway deformation and non-uniform regional ventilation to some extent, but does not capture the non-linear features of the lung.

  8. Modelling of coupled heat and electric field distribution during ohmic heating of solid foods with varying sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Bøknæs, Niels; Nielsen, P.L.

    factors leading to variations and uncertainties in prediction of the right process parameters. The current work is focused on modelling of OH of solid food pieces of varying sizes cooked in one batch. A 3D mathematical model of coupled heat transfer and electric field during OH of shrimps has been...

  9. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  10. Global Stability of Polytopic Linear Time-Varying Dynamic Systems under Time-Varying Point Delays and Impulsive Controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. de la Sen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the stability properties of a class of dynamic linear systems possessing several linear time-invariant parameterizations (or configurations which conform a linear time-varying polytopic dynamic system with a finite number of time-varying time-differentiable point delays. The parameterizations may be timevarying and with bounded discontinuities and they can be subject to mixed regular plus impulsive controls within a sequence of time instants of zero measure. The polytopic parameterization for the dynamics associated with each delay is specific, so that (q+1 polytopic parameterizations are considered for a system with q delays being also subject to delay-free dynamics. The considered general dynamic system includes, as particular cases, a wide class of switched linear systems whose individual parameterizations are timeinvariant which are governed by a switching rule. However, the dynamic system under consideration is viewed as much more general since it is time-varying with timevarying delays and the bounded discontinuous changes of active parameterizations are generated by impulsive controls in the dynamics and, at the same time, there is not a prescribed set of candidate potential parameterizations.

  11. Medication and volume delivery by gravity-driven micro-drip intravenous infusion: potential variations during "wide-open" flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Eric T; Kumar, Vikram; Zheng, Hui; Peterfreund, Robert A

    2013-03-01

    Gravity-driven micro-drip infusion sets allow control of medication dose delivery by adjusting drops per minute. When the roller clamp is fully open, flow in the drip chamber can be a continuous fluid column rather than discrete, countable, drops. We hypothesized that during this "wide-open" state, drug delivery becomes dependent on factors extrinsic to the micro-drip set and is therefore difficult to predict. We conducted laboratory experiments to characterize volume delivery under various clinically relevant conditions of wide-open flow in an in vitro laboratory model. A micro-drip infusion set, plugged into a bag of normal saline, was connected to a high-flow stopcock at the distal end. Vertically oriented IV catheters (gauges 14-22) were connected to the stopcock. The fluid meniscus height in the bag was fixed (60-120 cm) above the outflow point. The roller clamp on the infusion set was in fully open position for all experiments resulting in a continuous column of fluid in the drip chamber. Fluid volume delivered in 1 minute was measured 4 times with each condition. To model resistive effects of carrier flow, volumetric infusion pumps were used to deliver various flow rates of normal saline through a carrier IV set into which a micro-drip infusion was "piggybacked." We also compared delivery by micro-drip infusion sets from 3 manufacturers. The volume of fluid delivered by gravity-driven infusion under wide-open conditions (continuous fluid column in drip chamber) varied 2.9-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.84-2.96) depending on catheter size and fluid column height. Total model resistance of the micro-drip with stopcock and catheter varied with flow rate. Volume delivered by the piggybacked micro-drip decreased up to 29.7% ± 0.8% (mean ± SE) as the carrier flow increased from 0 to 1998 mL/min. Delivery characteristics of the micro-drip infusion sets from 3 different manufacturers were similar. Laboratory simulation of clinical situations with gravity

  12. Shallow water processes govern system-wide phytoplankton bloom dynamics: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, L.V.; Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Thompson, J.K.

    2009-01-01

    A pseudo-two-dimensional numerical model of estuarine phytoplankton growth and consumption, vertical turbulent mixing, and idealized cross-estuary transport was developed and applied to South San Francisco Bay. This estuary has two bathymetrically distinct habitat types (deep channel, shallow shoal) and associated differences in local net rates of phytoplankton growth and consumption, as well as differences in the water column's tendency to stratify. Because many physical and biological time scales relevant to algal population dynamics decrease with decreasing depth, process rates can be especially fast in the shallow water. We used the model to explore the potential significance of hydrodynamic connectivity between a channel and shoal and whether lateral transport can allow physical or biological processes (e.g. stratification, benthic grazing, light attenuation) in one sub-region to control phytoplankton biomass and bloom development in the adjacent sub-region. Model results for South San Francisco Bay suggest that lateral transport from a productive shoal can result in phytoplankton biomass accumulation in an adjacent deep, unproductive channel. The model further suggests that turbidity and benthic grazing in the shoal can control the occurrence of a bloom system-wide; whereas, turbidity, benthic grazing, and vertical density stratification in the channel are likely to only control local bloom occurrence or modify system-wide bloom magnitude. Measurements from a related field program are generally consistent with model-derived conclusions. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  13. Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Guoning

    2012-10-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  14. Design of 2D Time-Varying Vector Fields

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D.; Zhang, Eugene

    2012-01-01

    Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects. © 1995-2012 IEEE.

  15. Thermodynamic Property Model of Wide-Fluid Phase Propane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Made Astina

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available A new thermodynamic property model for propane is expressed in form of the Helmholtz free energy function. It consists of eight terms of the ideal-gas part and eighteen terms of the residual part. Accurate experimental data of fluid properties and theoretical approach from the intermolecular potential were simultaneously considered in the development to insure accuracy and to improve reliability of the equation of state over wide range of pressures and temperatures. Based on the state range of experimental data used in the model development, the validity range is judged from the triple-point of 85.48 K to temperature of 450 K and pressure up to 60 MPa. The uncertainties with respect to different properties are estimated to be 0.03% in ideal-gas isobaric specific heat, 0.2% in liquid phase density, 0.3% in gaseous phase density 1% in specific heats, 0.1% in vapor-pressure except at very low temperatures, 0.05% in saturated-liquid density, 0.02% in speed of sound of the gaseous phase and 1% in speed of sound of the liquid phase.

  16. Statistical power of model selection strategies for genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheyang Wu

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS aim to identify genetic variants related to diseases by examining the associations between phenotypes and hundreds of thousands of genotyped markers. Because many genes are potentially involved in common diseases and a large number of markers are analyzed, it is crucial to devise an effective strategy to identify truly associated variants that have individual and/or interactive effects, while controlling false positives at the desired level. Although a number of model selection methods have been proposed in the literature, including marginal search, exhaustive search, and forward search, their relative performance has only been evaluated through limited simulations due to the lack of an analytical approach to calculating the power of these methods. This article develops a novel statistical approach for power calculation, derives accurate formulas for the power of different model selection strategies, and then uses the formulas to evaluate and compare these strategies in genetic model spaces. In contrast to previous studies, our theoretical framework allows for random genotypes, correlations among test statistics, and a false-positive control based on GWAS practice. After the accuracy of our analytical results is validated through simulations, they are utilized to systematically evaluate and compare the performance of these strategies in a wide class of genetic models. For a specific genetic model, our results clearly reveal how different factors, such as effect size, allele frequency, and interaction, jointly affect the statistical power of each strategy. An example is provided for the application of our approach to empirical research. The statistical approach used in our derivations is general and can be employed to address the model selection problems in other random predictor settings. We have developed an R package markerSearchPower to implement our formulas, which can be downloaded from the

  17. Time-varying Crash Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Feunoua, Bruno; Jeon, Yoontae

    We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on re...

  18. A 3D Finite Element Model with Improved Spatial Resolution to Investigate the Effect of Varying Viscosity on Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, B.; van der Wal, W.; Pappa, F.; Ebbing, J.

    2017-12-01

    B. Blank1, H. Hu1, W. van der Wal1, F Pappa2, J. Ebbing21Delft University of Technology 2Christian-Albrechts-University of KielSince the beginning of the 2000's time-variable gravity data from GRACE has proved to be an effective method for mapping ice mass loss in Antarctica. However, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models are required to correct for GIA induced mass changes. While most GIA models have adopted an Earth model that only varies radially in parameters, it has long been clear that the Earth structure also varies with longitude and latitude. For this study a new global 3D GIA model has been developed within the finite element software package ABAQUS, which can be modified to operate on a spatial resolution down to 50 km locally. The model is being benchmarked against normal model models for surface loading. It will be used to investigate the effects of a 3D varying lithosphere and upper asthenosphere in Antarctica. Viscosity which will be computed from temperature estimates with laboratory based flow laws. A new 3D temperature map of the Antarctic lithosphere has been developed within ESA's GOCE+ project based on seismic data as well as on GOCE and GRACE inferred gravity gradients. Output from the GIA model with this new temperature estimates will be compared to that of 1D viscosity profiles and other recent 3D viscosity models based on seismic data. From these side to side comparisons we want to investigate the influence of the viscosity map on uplift rates and horizontal movement. Finally the results can be compared to GPS measurement to investigate the validity of all models.

  19. Varying Coefficient Panel Data Model in the Presence of Endogenous Selectivity and Fixed Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Malikov, Emir; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Sun, Yiguo

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers a flexible panel data sample selection model in which (i) the outcome equation is permitted to take a semiparametric, varying coefficient form to capture potential parameter heterogeneity in the relationship of interest, (ii) both the outcome and (parametric) selection equations contain unobserved fixed effects and (iii) selection is generalized to a polychotomous case. We propose a two-stage estimator. Given consistent parameter estimates from the selection equation obta...

  20. Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Edward; Brown, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

  1. Global Exponential Stability of Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Fishing Model with a Time-Varying Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous fishing model with a time-varying delay. Under proper conditions, we employ a novel argument to establish a criterion on the global exponential stability of positive almost periodic solutions of the model with almost periodic coefficients and delays. Moreover, an example and its numerical simulation are given to illustrate the main results.

  2. Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

    1995-01-01

    Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

  3. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2014-01-01

    The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier's locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier's position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.

  4. Gaussian covariance graph models accounting for correlated marker effects in genome-wide prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, C A; Khare, K; Rahman, S; Elzo, M A

    2017-10-01

    Several statistical models used in genome-wide prediction assume uncorrelated marker allele substitution effects, but it is known that these effects may be correlated. In statistics, graphical models have been identified as a useful tool for covariance estimation in high-dimensional problems and it is an area that has recently experienced a great expansion. In Gaussian covariance graph models (GCovGM), the joint distribution of a set of random variables is assumed to be Gaussian and the pattern of zeros of the covariance matrix is encoded in terms of an undirected graph G. In this study, methods adapting the theory of GCovGM to genome-wide prediction were developed (Bayes GCov, Bayes GCov-KR and Bayes GCov-H). In simulated data sets, improvements in correlation between phenotypes and predicted breeding values and accuracies of predicted breeding values were found. Our models account for correlation of marker effects and permit to accommodate general structures as opposed to models proposed in previous studies, which consider spatial correlation only. In addition, they allow incorporation of biological information in the prediction process through its use when constructing graph G, and their extension to the multi-allelic loci case is straightforward. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  5. Modeling the Plasma Flow in the Inner Heliosheath with a Spatially Varying Compression Ratio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolaou, G. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna (Sweden); Livadiotis, G. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas (United States)

    2017-03-20

    We examine a semi-analytical non-magnetic model of the termination shock location previously developed by Exarhos and Moussas. In their study, the plasma flow beyond the shock is considered incompressible and irrotational, thus the flow potential is analytically derived from the Laplace equation. Here we examine the characteristics of the downstream flow in the heliosheath in order to resolve several inconsistencies existing in the Exarhos and Moussas model. In particular, the model is modified in order to be consistent with the Rankine–Hugoniot jump conditions and the geometry of the termination shock. It is shown that a shock compression ratio varying along the latitude can lead to physically correct results. We describe the new model and present several simplified examples for a nearly spherical, strong termination shock. Under those simplifications, the upstream plasma is nearly adiabatic for large (∼100 AU) heliosheath thickness.

  6. Numerical modelling of flow structures over idealized transverse aeolian dunes of varying geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Daniel R.; Walker, Ian J.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.

    2004-04-01

    A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model (PHOENICS™ 3.5) previously validated for wind tunnel measurements is used to simulate the streamwise and vertical velocity flow fields over idealized transverse dunes of varying height ( h) and stoss slope basal length ( L). The model accurately reproduced patterns of: flow deceleration at the dune toe; stoss flow acceleration; vertical lift in the crest region; lee-side flow separation, re-attachment and reversal; and flow recovery distance. Results indicate that the flow field over transverse dunes is particularly sensitive to changes in dune height, with an increase in height resulting in flow deceleration at the toe, streamwise acceleration and vertical lift at the crest, and an increase in the extent of, and strength of reversed flows within, the lee-side separation cell. In general, the length of the separation zone varied from 3 to 15 h from the crest and increased over taller, steeper dunes. Similarly, the flow recovery distance ranged from 45 to >75 h and was more sensitive to changes in dune height. For the range of dune shapes investigated in this study, the differing effects of height and stoss slope length raise questions regarding the applicability of dune aspect ratio as a parameter for explaining airflow over transverse dunes. Evidence is also provided to support existing research on: streamline curvature and the maintenance of sand transport in the toe region; vertical lift in the crest region and its effect on grainfall delivery; relations between the turbulent shear layer and downward forcing of flow re-attachment; and extended flow recovery distances beyond the separation cell. Field validation is required to test these findings in natural settings. Future applications of the model will characterize turbulence and shear stress fields, examine the effects of more complex isolated dune forms and investigate flow over multiple dunes.

  7. Robust distributed model predictive control of linear systems with structured time-varying uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Langwen; Xie, Wei; Wang, Jingcheng

    2017-11-01

    In this work, synthesis of robust distributed model predictive control (MPC) is presented for a class of linear systems subject to structured time-varying uncertainties. By decomposing a global system into smaller dimensional subsystems, a set of distributed MPC controllers, instead of a centralised controller, are designed. To ensure the robust stability of the closed-loop system with respect to model uncertainties, distributed state feedback laws are obtained by solving a min-max optimisation problem. The design of robust distributed MPC is then transformed into solving a minimisation optimisation problem with linear matrix inequality constraints. An iterative online algorithm with adjustable maximum iteration is proposed to coordinate the distributed controllers to achieve a global performance. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed robust distributed MPC algorithm.

  8. Limiting photocurrent analysis of a wide channel photoelectrochemical flow reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, Jonathan T; Esposito, Daniel V

    2017-01-01

    The development of efficient and scalable photoelectrochemical (PEC) reactors is of great importance for the eventual commercialization of solar fuels technology. In this study, we systematically explore the influence of convective mass transport and light intensity on the performance of a 3D-printed PEC flow cell reactor based on a wide channel, parallel plate geometry. Using this design, the limiting current density generated from the hydrogen evolution reaction at a p-Si metal–insulator–semiconductor (MIS) photocathode was investigated under varied reactant concentration, fluid velocity, and light intensity. Additionally, a simple model is introduced to predict the range of operating conditions (reactant concentration, light intensity, fluid velocity) for which the photocurrent generated in a parallel plate PEC flow cell is limited by light absorption or mass transport. This model can serve as a useful guide for the design and operation of wide-channel PEC flow reactors. The results of this study have important implications for PEC reactors operating in electrolytes with dilute reactant concentrations and/or under high light intensities where high fluid velocities are required in order to avoid operation in the mass transport-limited regime. (paper)

  9. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  10. PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TIME VARYING PARAMETER (TVP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I PUTU GEDE DIAN GERRY SUWEDAYANA

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali using Time Varying Parameter (TVP model based on inflation of Indonesia and exchange rate AUD to IDR from January 2010 – December 2015 as explanatory variables. TVP model is specified in a state space model and estimated by Kalman filter algorithm. The result shows that the TVP model can be used to forecast the number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali because it satisfied the assumption that the residuals are distributed normally and the residuals in the measurement and transition equations are not correlated. The estimated TVP model is . This model has a value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE is equal to dan root mean square percentage error (RMSPE is equal to . The number of Australian tourists arrival to Bali for the next five periods is predicted: ; ; ; ; and (January - May 2016.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Rotary Kiln Productivity Increase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romero-Valle, M.A.; Pisaroni, M.; Van Puyvelde, D.; Lahaye, D.J.P.; Sadi, R.

    2013-01-01

    Rotary kilns are used in many industrial processes ranging from cement manufacturing to waste incineration. The operating conditions vary widely depending on the process. While there are many models available within the literature and industry, the wide range of operating conditions justifies

  12. Newtonian cosmology with a time-varying constant of gravitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVittie, G.C.

    1978-01-01

    Newtonian cosmology is based on the Eulerian equations of fluid mechanics combined with Poisson's equation modified by the introduction of a time-varying G. Spherically symmetric model universes are worked out with instantaneously uniform densities. They are indeterminate unless instantaneous uniformity of the pressure is imposed. When G varies as an inverse power of the time, the models can in some cases be shown to depend on the solution of a second-order differential equation which also occurs in the Friedmann models of general relativity. In Section 3, a method for 'passing through' a singularity of this equation is proposed which entails making four arbitrary mathematical assumptions. When G varies as (time) -1 , models with initially cycloidal motion are possible, each cycle becoming longer as time progresses. Finally, gravitation becomes so weak that the model expands to infinity. Kinetic and potential energies for the whole model are derived from the basic equations; their sum is not constant. (author)

  13. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

  14. Pemodelan Markov Switching Dengan Time-varying Transition Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Savitri, Anggita Puri; Warsito, Budi; Rahmawati, Rita

    2016-01-01

    Exchange rate or currency is an economic variable which reflects country's state of economy. It fluctuates over time because of its ability to switch the condition or regime caused by economic and political factors. The changes in the exchange rate are depreciation and appreciation. Therefore, it could be modeled using Markov Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probability which observe the conditional changes and use information variable. From this model, time-varying transition probabili...

  15. Penalized Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Ordinary Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Cao, Jiguo; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Wu, Hulin

    2012-01-01

    Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biomedical research and other scientific areas to model complex dynamic systems. It is an important statistical problem to estimate parameters in ODEs from noisy observations. In this article we propose a method for estimating the time-varying coefficients in an ODE. Our method is a variation of the nonlinear least squares where penalized splines are used to model the functional parameters and the ODE solutions are approximated also using splines. We resort to the implicit function theorem to deal with the nonlinear least squares objective function that is only defined implicitly. The proposed penalized nonlinear least squares method is applied to estimate a HIV dynamic model from a real dataset. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method can provide much more accurate estimates of functional parameters than the existing two-step local polynomial method which relies on estimation of the derivatives of the state function. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.

  16. Dealing with time-varying recruitment and length in Hill-type muscle models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamouda, Ahmed; Kenney, Laurence; Howard, David

    2016-10-03

    Hill-type muscle models are often used in muscle simulation studies and also in the design and virtual prototyping of functional electrical stimulation systems. These models have to behave in a sufficiently realistic manner when recruitment level and contractile element (CE) length change continuously. For this reason, most previous models have used instantaneous CE length in the muscle׳s force vs. length (F-L) relationship, but thereby neglect the instability problem on the descending limb (i.e. region of negative slope) of the F-L relationship. Ideally CE length at initial recruitment should be used but this requires a multiple-motor-unit muscle model to properly account for different motor-units having different initial lengths when recruited. None of the multiple-motor-unit models reported in the literature have used initial CE length in the muscle׳s F-L relationship, thereby also neglecting the descending limb instability problem. To address the problem of muscle modelling for continuously varying recruitment and length, and hence different values of initial CE length for different motor-units, a new multiple-motor-unit muscle model is presented which considers the muscle to comprise 1000 individual Hill-type virtual motor-units, which determine the total isometric force. Other parts of the model (F-V relationship and passive elements) are not dependent on the initial CE length and, therefore, they are implemented for the muscle as a whole rather than for the individual motor-units. The results demonstrate the potential errors introduced by using a single-motor-unit model and also the instantaneous CE length in the F-L relationship, both of which are common in FES control studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Validation of a plant-wide phosphorus modelling approach with minerals precipitation in a full-scale WWTP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien John

    2016-01-01

    approach describing ion speciation and ion pairing with kinetic multiple minerals precipitation. Model performance is evaluated against data sets from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant, assessing capability to describe water and sludge lines across the treatment process under steady-state operation...... plant. Dynamic influent profiles were generated using a calibrated influent generator and were used to study the effect of long-term influent dynamics on plant performance. Model-based analysis shows that minerals precipitation strongly influences composition in the anaerobic digesters, but also impacts......The focus of modelling in wastewater treatment is shifting from single unit to plant-wide scale. Plant wide modelling approaches provide opportunities to study the dynamics and interactions of different transformations in water and sludge streams. Towards developing more general and robust...

  18. GEM System: automatic prototyping of cell-wide metabolic pathway models from genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakayama Yoichi

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Successful realization of a "systems biology" approach to analyzing cells is a grand challenge for our understanding of life. However, current modeling approaches to cell simulation are labor-intensive, manual affairs, and therefore constitute a major bottleneck in the evolution of computational cell biology. Results We developed the Genome-based Modeling (GEM System for the purpose of automatically prototyping simulation models of cell-wide metabolic pathways from genome sequences and other public biological information. Models generated by the GEM System include an entire Escherichia coli metabolism model comprising 968 reactions of 1195 metabolites, achieving 100% coverage when compared with the KEGG database, 92.38% with the EcoCyc database, and 95.06% with iJR904 genome-scale model. Conclusion The GEM System prototypes qualitative models to reduce the labor-intensive tasks required for systems biology research. Models of over 90 bacterial genomes are available at our web site.

  19. Damping of Inter-Area Low Frequency Oscillation Using an Adaptive Wide-Area Damping Controller

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yao, Wei; Jiang, L.; Fang, Jiakun

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an adaptive wide-area damping controller (WADC) based on generalized predictive control (GPC) and model identification for damping the inter-area low frequency oscillations in large-scale inter-connected power system. A recursive least-squares algorithm (RLSA) with a varying...... forgetting factor is applied to identify online the reduced-order linearlized model which contains dominant inter-area low frequency oscillations. Based on this linearlized model, the generalized predictive control scheme considering control output constraints is employed to obtain the optimal control signal...... conditions and different disturbances, but also has better robustness against to the time delay existing in the remote signals. The comparison studies with the conventional lead-lag WADC are also provided....

  20. Spatially-varying surface roughness and ground-level air quality in an operational dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, M.J.; Brade, T.K.; MacKenzie, A.R.; Whyatt, J.D.; Carruthers, D.J.; Stocker, J.; Cai, X.; Hewitt, C.N.

    2014-01-01

    Urban form controls the overall aerodynamic roughness of a city, and hence plays a significant role in how air flow interacts with the urban landscape. This paper reports improved model performance resulting from the introduction of variable surface roughness in the operational air-quality model ADMS-Urban (v3.1). We then assess to what extent pollutant concentrations can be reduced solely through local reductions in roughness. The model results suggest that reducing surface roughness in a city centre can increase ground-level pollutant concentrations, both locally in the area of reduced roughness and downwind of that area. The unexpected simulation of increased ground-level pollutant concentrations implies that this type of modelling should be used with caution for urban planning and design studies looking at ventilation of pollution. We expect the results from this study to be relevant for all atmospheric dispersion models with urban-surface parameterisations based on roughness. -- Highlights: • Spatially variable roughness improved performance of an operational model. • Scenario modelling explored effect of reduced roughness on air pollution. • Reducing surface roughness can increase modelled ground-level pollution. • Damped vertical mixing outweighs increased horizontal advection in model study. • Result should hold for any model with a land-surface coupling based on roughness. -- Spatially varying roughness improves model simulations of urban air pollutant dispersion. Reducing roughness does not always decrease ground-level pollution concentrations

  1. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample siz...

  2. Generalization of the Wide-Sense Markov Concept to a Widely Linear Processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa-Pulido, Juan Antonio; Navarro-Moreno, Jesús; Fernández-Alcalá, Rosa María; Ruiz-Molina, Juan Carlos; Oya-Lechuga, Antonia; Ruiz-Fuentes, Nuria

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we show that the classical definition and the associated characterizations of wide-sense Markov (WSM) signals are not valid for improper complex signals. For that, we propose an extension of the concept of WSM to a widely linear (WL) setting and the study of new characterizations. Specifically, we introduce a new class of signals, called widely linear Markov (WLM) signals, and we analyze some of their properties based either on second-order properties or on state-space models from a WL processing standpoint. The study is performed in both the forwards and backwards directions of time. Thus, we provide two forwards and backwards Markovian representations for WLM signals. Finally, different estimation recursive algorithms are obtained for these models

  3. Development of a State-Wide 3-D Seismic Tomography Velocity Model for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, C. H.; Lin, G.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Brocher, T.

    2007-12-01

    We report on progress towards the development of a state-wide tomographic model of the P-wave velocity for the crust and uppermost mantle of California. The dataset combines first arrival times from earthquakes and quarry blasts recorded on regional network stations and travel times of first arrivals from explosions and airguns recorded on profile receivers and network stations. The principal active-source datasets are Geysers-San Pablo Bay, Imperial Valley, Livermore, W. Mojave, Gilroy-Coyote Lake, Shasta region, Great Valley, Morro Bay, Mono Craters-Long Valley, PACE, S. Sierras, LARSE 1 and 2, Loma Prieta, BASIX, San Francisco Peninsula and Parkfield. Our beta-version model is coarse (uniform 30 km horizontal and variable vertical gridding) but is able to image the principal features in previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, such as the high-velocity subducting Gorda Plate, upper to middle crustal velocity highs beneath the Sierra Nevada and much of the Coast Ranges, the deep low-velocity basins of the Great Valley, Ventura, and Los Angeles, and a high- velocity body in the lower crust underlying the Great Valley. The new state-wide model has improved areal coverage compared to the previous models, and extends to greater depth due to the data at large epicentral distances. We plan a series of steps to improve the model. We are enlarging and calibrating the active-source dataset as we obtain additional picks from investigators and perform quality control analyses on the existing and new picks. We will also be adding data from more quarry blasts, mainly in northern California, following an identification and calibration procedure similar to Lin et al. (2006). Composite event construction (Lin et al., in press) will be carried out for northern California for use in conventional tomography. A major contribution of the state-wide model is the identification of earthquakes yielding arrival times at both the Northern California Seismic

  4. Using latent variable approach to estimate China's economy-wide energy rebound effect over 1954–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao, Shuai; Huang, Tao; Yang, Lili

    2014-01-01

    The energy rebound effect has been a significant issue in China, which is undergoing economic transition, since it reflects the effectiveness of energy-saving policy relying on improved energy efficiency. Based on the IPAT equation and Brookes' explanation of the rebound effect, this paper develops an alternative estimation model of the rebound effect. By using the estimation model and latent variable approach, which is achieved through a time-varying coefficient state space model, we estimate China's economy-wide energy rebound effect over 1954–2010. The results show that the rebound effect evidently exists in China as a result of the annual average of 39.73% over 1954–2010. Before and after the implementation of China's reform and opening-up policy in 1978, the rebound effects are 47.24% and 37.32%, with a strong fluctuation and a circuitously downward trend, respectively, indicating that a stable political environment and the development of market economy system facilitate the effectiveness of energy-saving policy. Although the energy-saving effect of improving energy efficiency has been partly realised, there remains a large energy-saving potential in China. - Highlights: • We present an improved estimation methodology of economy-wide energy rebound effect. • We use the latent variable approach to estimate China's economy-wide rebound effect. • The rebound exists in China and varies before and after reform and opening-up. • After 1978, the average rebound is 37.32% with a circuitously downward trend. • Traditional Solow remainder method underestimates the rebound in most cases

  5. Mediation analysis with time varying exposures and mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

    2017-06-01

    In this paper we consider causal mediation analysis when exposures and mediators vary over time. We give non-parametric identification results, discuss parametric implementation, and also provide a weighting approach to direct and indirect effects based on combining the results of two marginal structural models. We also discuss how our results give rise to a causal interpretation of the effect estimates produced from longitudinal structural equation models. When there are time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator, natural direct and indirect effects are not identified. However, we define a randomized interventional analogue of natural direct and indirect effects that are identified in this setting. The formula that identifies these effects we refer to as the "mediational g-formula." When there is no mediation, the mediational g-formula reduces to Robins' regular g-formula for longitudinal data. When there are no time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure and mediator values, then the mediational g-formula reduces to a longitudinal version of Pearl's mediation formula. However, the mediational g-formula itself can accommodate both mediation and time-varying confounders and constitutes a general approach to mediation analysis with time-varying exposures and mediators.

  6. Moveout analysis of wide-azimuth data in the presence of lateral velocity variation

    KAUST Repository

    Takanashi, Mamoru

    2012-05-01

    Moveout analysis of wide-azimuth reflection data seldom takes into account lateral velocity variations on the scale of spreadlength. However, velocity lenses (such as channels and reefs) in the overburden can cause significant, laterally varying errors in the moveout parameters and distortions in data interpretation. Here, we present an analytic expression for the normal-moveout (NMO) ellipse in stratified media with lateral velocity variation. The contribution of lateral heterogeneity (LH) is controlled by the second derivatives of the interval vertical traveltime with respect to the horizontal coordinates, along with the depth and thickness of the LH layer. This equation provides a quick estimate of the influence of velocity lenses and can be used to substantially mitigate the lens-induced distortions in the effective and interval NMO ellipses. To account for velocity lenses in nonhyperbolic moveout inversion of wide-azimuth data, we propose a prestack correction algorithm that involves computation of the lens-induced traveltime distortion for each recorded trace. The overburden is assumed to be composed of horizontal layers (one of which contains the lens), but the target interval can be laterally heterogeneous with dipping or curved interfaces. Synthetic tests for horizontally layered models confirm that our algorithm accurately removes lens-related azimuthally varying traveltime shifts and errors in the moveout parameters. The developed methods should increase the robustness of seismic processing of wide-azimuth surveys, especially those acquired for fracture-characterization purposes. © 2012 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

  7. Moveout analysis of wide-azimuth data in the presence of lateral velocity variation

    KAUST Repository

    Takanashi, Mamoru; Tsvankin, Ilya

    2012-01-01

    Moveout analysis of wide-azimuth reflection data seldom takes into account lateral velocity variations on the scale of spreadlength. However, velocity lenses (such as channels and reefs) in the overburden can cause significant, laterally varying errors in the moveout parameters and distortions in data interpretation. Here, we present an analytic expression for the normal-moveout (NMO) ellipse in stratified media with lateral velocity variation. The contribution of lateral heterogeneity (LH) is controlled by the second derivatives of the interval vertical traveltime with respect to the horizontal coordinates, along with the depth and thickness of the LH layer. This equation provides a quick estimate of the influence of velocity lenses and can be used to substantially mitigate the lens-induced distortions in the effective and interval NMO ellipses. To account for velocity lenses in nonhyperbolic moveout inversion of wide-azimuth data, we propose a prestack correction algorithm that involves computation of the lens-induced traveltime distortion for each recorded trace. The overburden is assumed to be composed of horizontal layers (one of which contains the lens), but the target interval can be laterally heterogeneous with dipping or curved interfaces. Synthetic tests for horizontally layered models confirm that our algorithm accurately removes lens-related azimuthally varying traveltime shifts and errors in the moveout parameters. The developed methods should increase the robustness of seismic processing of wide-azimuth surveys, especially those acquired for fracture-characterization purposes. © 2012 Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

  8. Modelling the Earth's static and time-varying gravity field using a combination of GRACE and GOCE data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farahani, H.H.

    2013-01-01

    The main focus of the thesis is modelling the static and time-varying parts of the Earth's gravity field at the global scale based on data acquired by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE). In addition, a new

  9. Modeling Water Flux at the Base of the Rooting Zone for Soils with Varying Glacial Parent Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, S.; Ellett, K. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Olyphant, G. A.

    2013-12-01

    Soils of varying glacial parent materials in the Great Lakes Region (USA) are characterized by thin unsaturated zones and widespread use of agricultural pesticides and nutrients that affect shallow groundwater. To better our understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants, improved models of water fluxes through the vadose zones of various hydrogeologic settings are warranted. Furthermore, calibrated unsaturated zone models can be coupled with watershed models, providing a means for predicting the impact of varying climate scenarios on agriculture in the region. To address these issues, a network of monitoring sites was developed in Indiana that provides continuous measurements of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and soil matric potential to parameterize and calibrate models. Flux at the base of the root zone is simulated using two models of varying complexity: 1) the HYDRUS model, which numerically solves the Richards equation, and 2) the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, which assumes vertical flow under a unit gradient with infiltration and evapotranspiration treated as separate, sequential processes. Soil hydraulic parameters are determined based on laboratory data, a pedo-transfer function (ROSETTA), field measurements (Guelph permeameter), and parameter optimization. Groundwater elevation data are available at three of six sites to establish the base of the unsaturated zone model domain. Initial modeling focused on the groundwater recharge season (Nov-Feb) when PET is limited and much of the annual vertical flux occurs. HYDRUS results indicate that base of root zone fluxes at a site underlain by glacial ice-contact parent materials are 48% of recharge season precipitation (VWC RMSE=8.2%), while SWB results indicate that fluxes are 43% (VWC RMSE=3.7%). Due in part to variations in surface boundary conditions, more variable fluxes were obtained for a site underlain by alluvium with the SWB model (68

  10. Modeling the time-varying and level-dependent effects of the medial olivocochlear reflex in auditory nerve responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalt, Christopher J; Heinz, Michael G; Strickland, Elizabeth A

    2014-04-01

    The medial olivocochlear reflex (MOCR) has been hypothesized to provide benefit for listening in noisy environments. This advantage can be attributed to a feedback mechanism that suppresses auditory nerve (AN) firing in continuous background noise, resulting in increased sensitivity to a tone or speech. MOC neurons synapse on outer hair cells (OHCs), and their activity effectively reduces cochlear gain. The computational model developed in this study implements the time-varying, characteristic frequency (CF) and level-dependent effects of the MOCR within the framework of a well-established model for normal and hearing-impaired AN responses. A second-order linear system was used to model the time-course of the MOCR using physiological data in humans. The stimulus-level-dependent parameters of the efferent pathway were estimated by fitting AN sensitivity derived from responses in decerebrate cats using a tone-in-noise paradigm. The resulting model uses a binaural, time-varying, CF-dependent, level-dependent OHC gain reduction for both ipsilateral and contralateral stimuli that improves detection of a tone in noise, similarly to recorded AN responses. The MOCR may be important for speech recognition in continuous background noise as well as for protection from acoustic trauma. Further study of this model and its efferent feedback loop may improve our understanding of the effects of sensorineural hearing loss in noisy situations, a condition in which hearing aids currently struggle to restore normal speech perception.

  11. A time-varying subjective quality model for mobile streaming videos with stalling events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Pan, Janice; Bovik, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Over-the-top mobile video streaming is invariably influenced by volatile network conditions which cause playback interruptions (stalling events), thereby impairing users' quality of experience (QoE). Developing models that can accurately predict users' QoE could enable the more efficient design of quality-control protocols for video streaming networks that reduce network operational costs while still delivering high-quality video content to the customers. Existing objective models that predict QoE are based on global video features, such as the number of stall events and their lengths, and are trained and validated on a small pool of ad hoc video datasets, most of which are not publicly available. The model we propose in this work goes beyond previous models as it also accounts for the fundamental effect that a viewer's recent level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction has on their overall viewing experience. In other words, the proposed model accounts for and adapts to the recency, or hysteresis effect caused by a stall event in addition to accounting for the lengths, frequency of occurrence, and the positions of stall events - factors that interact in a complex way to affect a user's QoE. On the recently introduced LIVE-Avvasi Mobile Video Database, which consists of 180 distorted videos of varied content that are afflicted solely with over 25 unique realistic stalling events, we trained and validated our model to accurately predict the QoE, attaining standout QoE prediction performance.

  12. Time-varying linear control for tiltrotor aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing ZHANG

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tiltrotor aircraft have three flight modes: helicopter mode, airplane mode, and transition mode. A tiltrotor has characteristics of highly nonlinear, time-varying flight dynamics and inertial/control couplings in its transition mode. It can transit from the helicopter mode to the airplane mode by tilting its nacelles, and an effective controller is crucial to accomplish tilting transition missions. Longitudinal dynamic characteristics of the tiltrotor are described by a nonlinear Lagrange-form model, which takes into account inertial/control couplings and aerodynamic interferences. Reference commands for airspeed velocity and attitude in the transition mode are calculated dynamically by visiting a command library which is founded in advance by analyzing the flight envelope of the tiltrotor. A Time-Varying Linear (TVL model is obtained using a Taylor-expansion based online linearization technique from the nonlinear model. Subsequently, based on an optimal control concept, an online optimization based control method with input constraints considered is proposed. To validate the proposed control method, three typical tilting transition missions are simulated using the nonlinear model of XV-15 tiltrotor aircraft. Simulation results show that the controller can be used to control the tiltrotor throughout its operating envelop which includes a transition flight, and can also deal with vertical gust disturbances. Keywords: Constrained optimal control, Inertia/control couplings, Tiltrotor aircraft, Time-varying control, Transition mode

  13. A probability distribution model of tooth pits for evaluating time-varying mesh stiffness of pitting gears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yaguo; Liu, Zongyao; Wang, Delong; Yang, Xiao; Liu, Huan; Lin, Jing

    2018-06-01

    Tooth damage often causes a reduction in gear mesh stiffness. Thus time-varying mesh stiffness (TVMS) can be treated as an indication of gear health conditions. This study is devoted to investigating the mesh stiffness variations of a pair of external spur gears with tooth pitting, and proposes a new model for describing tooth pitting based on probability distribution. In the model, considering the appearance and development process of tooth pitting, we model the pitting on the surface of spur gear teeth as a series of pits with a uniform distribution in the direction of tooth width and a normal distribution in the direction of tooth height, respectively. In addition, four pitting degrees, from no pitting to severe pitting, are modeled. Finally, influences of tooth pitting on TVMS are analyzed in details and the proposed model is validated by comparing with a finite element model. The comparison results show that the proposed model is effective for the TVMS evaluations of pitting gears.

  14. A dynamic capacity degradation model and its applications considering varying load for a large format Li-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Minggao; Feng, Xuning; Han, Xuebing; Lu, Languang; Li, Zhe; He, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A dynamic capacity degradation model for large format Li-ion battery is proposed. • The change of the model parameters directly link with the degradation mechanisms. • The model can simulate the fading behavior of Li-ion battery under varying loads. • The model can help evaluate the longevity of a battery system under specific load. • The model can help predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack. - Abstract: The capacity degradation of the lithium ion battery should be well predicted during battery system design. Therefore, high-fidelity capacity degradation models that are suitable for the task of capacity prediction are required. This paper proposes a novel capacity degradation model that can simulate the degradation dynamics under varying working conditions for large-format lithium ion batteries. The degradation model is built based on a mechanistic and prognostic model (MPM) whose parameters are closely linked with the degradation mechanisms of lithium ion batteries. Chemical kinetics was set to drive the parameters of the MPM to change as capacity degradation continues. With the dynamic parameters of the MPM, the capacity predicted by the degradation model decreases as the cycle continues. Accelerated aging tests were conducted on three types of commercial lithium ion batteries to calibrate the capacity degradation model. The good fit with the experimental data indicates that the model can capture the degradation mechanisms well for different types of commercial lithium ion batteries. Furthermore, the calibrated model can be used to (1) evaluate the longevity of a battery system under a specific working load and (2) predict the evolution of cell variations within a battery pack when different cell works at different conditions. Correlated applications are discussed using the calibrated degradation model.

  15. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  16. H∞ Control for a Networked Control Model of Systems with Two Additive Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanyong Shao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with H∞ control for a networked control model of systems with two additive time-varying delays. A new Lyapunov functional is constructed to make full use of the information of the delays, and for the derivative of the Lyapunov functional a novel technique is employed to compute a tighter upper bound, which is dependent on the two time-varying delays instead of the upper bounds of them. Then the convex polyhedron method is proposed to check the upper bound of the derivative of the Lyapunov functional. The resulting stability criteria have fewer matrix variables but less conservatism than some existing ones. The stability criteria are applied to designing a state feedback controller, which guarantees that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable with a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level. Finally examples are given to show the advantages of the stability criteria and the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

  17. Robust and Fault-Tolerant Linear Parameter-Varying Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth, Christoffer; Esbensen, Thomas; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2011-01-01

    High performance and reliability are required for wind turbines to be competitive within the energy market. To capture their nonlinear behavior, wind turbines are often modeled using parameter-varying models. In this paper we design and compare multiple linear parameter-varying (LPV) controllers,...

  18. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  19. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  20. Cosmological effects of scalar-photon couplings: dark energy and varyingModels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avgoustidis, A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD (United Kingdom); Martins, C.J.A.P.; Monteiro, A.M.R.V.L.; Vielzeuf, P.E. [Centro de Astrofísica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Luzzi, G., E-mail: tavgoust@gmail.com, E-mail: Carlos.Martins@astro.up.pt, E-mail: mmonteiro@fc.up.pt, E-mail: up110370652@alunos.fc.up.pt, E-mail: gluzzi@lal.in2p3.fr [Laboratoire de l' Accélérateur Linéaire, Université de Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Bâtiment 200, BP 34, 91898 Orsay Cedex (France)

    2014-06-01

    We study cosmological models involving scalar fields coupled to radiation and discuss their effect on the redshift evolution of the cosmic microwave background temperature, focusing on links with varying fundamental constants and dynamical dark energy. We quantify how allowing for the coupling of scalar fields to photons, and its important effect on luminosity distances, weakens current and future constraints on cosmological parameters. In particular, for evolving dark energy models, joint constraints on the dark energy equation of state combining BAO radial distance and SN luminosity distance determinations, will be strongly dominated by BAO. Thus, to fully exploit future SN data one must also independently constrain photon number non-conservation arising from the possible coupling of SN photons to the dark energy scalar field. We discuss how observational determinations of the background temperature at different redshifts can, in combination with distance measures data, set tight constraints on interactions between scalar fields and photons, thus breaking this degeneracy. We also discuss prospects for future improvements, particularly in the context of Euclid and the E-ELT and show that Euclid can, even on its own, provide useful dark energy constraints while allowing for photon number non-conservation.

  1. A two-dimensional hybrid method for modeling seismic waves propagation in laterally-varying anisotropic media and its application to central Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, L.; Wen, L.

    2009-12-01

    The shear wave splitting measurements provide important information on mantle flow, deformation and mineralogy. They are now routinely made using the method developed by Silver and Chan (1994). More and more dense regional observations also begin to reveal sharp spatial variations of seismic anisotropy which could not be explained by simplified horizontal homogeneous anisotropic structures. To better constrain the mantle anisotropy beneath those regions, we developed a two-dimensional hybrid method for simulating seismic wave propagation in laterally-varying anisotropic media [Zhao et al., 2008]. In this presentation, we apply the method to study anisotropic structures beneath central Tibet by waveform modeling the teleseismic SKS phases recorded in the International Deep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalayas project (INDEPTH) III. Using data from two events that were selected such that the stations and sources can be approximated as a two-dimensional profile, we derived an optimal model for the anisotropic structures of the upper mantle beneath the study region: a 50-70 km thick anisotropic layer with a fast direction trending N95°E beneath the Qiangtang block, a 150 km thick and 60 km wide anisotropic segment with an axis trending N95°E beneath the northernmost Lhasa block, and a ~30 km wide transition zone in between within which the fast direction trends N45°E and the depth extent of anisotropy decreases northward sharply. Synthetic waveform modeling further suggests that an anisotropic model with a horizontal symmetry axis can explain the observations better than that with a dipping symmetry, and a low velocity zone possibly underlies or mixes with the anisotropic structures in the northern portion of the region. The optimal model yields synthetic seismograms that are in good agreement with the observations in both amplitudes and relative arrival times of SKS phases. Synthetic tests also indicate that different elastic constants, source parameters and depth

  2. A method for simulating sediment incipient motion varying with time and space in an ocean model (FVCOM): development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zichen; Wang, Yongzhi; Bian, Shuhua; Hu, Zejian; Liu, Jianqiang; Liu, Lejun

    2017-11-01

    We modified the sediment incipient motion in a numerical model and evaluated the impact of this modification using a study case of the coastal area around Weihai, China. The modified and unmodified versions of the model were validated by comparing simulated and observed data of currents, waves, and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) measured from July 25th to July 26th, 2006. A fitted Shields diagram was introduced into the sediment model so that the critical erosional shear stress could vary with time. Thus, the simulated SSC patterns were improved to more closely reflect the observed values, so that the relative error of the variation range decreased by up to 34.5% and the relative error of simulated temporally averaged SSC decreased by up to 36%. In the modified model, the critical shear stress values of the simulated silt with a diameter of 0.035 mm and mud with a diameter of 0.004 mm varied from 0.05 to 0.13 N/m2, and from 0.05 to 0.14 N/m 2, respectively, instead of remaining constant in the unmodified model. Besides, a method of applying spatially varying fractions of the mixed grain size sediment improved the simulated SSC distribution to fit better to the remote sensing map and reproduced the zonal area with high SSC between Heini Bay and the erosion groove in the modified model. The Relative Mean Absolute Error was reduced by between 6% and 79%, depending on the regional attributes when we used the modified method to simulate incipient sediment motion. But the modification achieved the higher accuracy in this study at a cost of computation speed decreasing by 1.52%.

  3. Observer-based linear parameter varying H∞ tracking control for hypersonic vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiqing Huang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to develop observer-based linear parameter varying output feedback H∞ tracking controller for hypersonic vehicles. Due to the complexity of an original nonlinear model of the hypersonic vehicle dynamics, a slow–fast loop linear parameter varying polytopic model is introduced for system stability analysis and controller design. Then, a state observer is developed by linear parameter varying technique in order to estimate the unmeasured attitude angular for slow loop system. Also, based on the designed linear parameter varying state observer, a kind of attitude tracking controller is presented to reduce tracking errors for all bounded reference attitude angular inputs. The closed-loop linear parameter varying system is proved to be quadratically stable by Lypapunov function technique. Finally, simulation results show that the developed linear parameter varying H∞ controller has good tracking capability for reference commands.

  4. Clear-sky classification procedures and models using a world-wide data-base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younes, S.; Muneer, T.

    2007-01-01

    Clear-sky data need to be extracted from all-sky measured solar-irradiance dataset, often by using algorithms that rely on other measured meteorological parameters. Current procedures for clear-sky data extraction have been examined and compared with each other to determine their reliability and location dependency. New clear-sky determination algorithms are proposed that are based on a combination of clearness index, diffuse ratio, cloud cover and Linke's turbidity limits. Various researchers have proposed clear-sky irradiance models that rely on synoptic parameters; four of these models, MRM, PRM, YRM and REST2 have been compared for six world-wide-locations. Based on a previously-developed comprehensive accuracy scoring method, the models MRM, REST2 and YRM were found to be of satisfactory performance in decreasing order. The so-called Page radiation model (PRM) was found to underestimate solar radiation, even though local turbidity data were provided for its operation

  5. Malware Propagation and Prevention Model for Time-Varying Community Networks within Software Defined Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As the adoption of Software Defined Networks (SDNs grows, the security of SDN still has several unaddressed limitations. A key network security research area is in the study of malware propagation across the SDN-enabled networks. To analyze the spreading processes of network malware (e.g., viruses in SDN, we propose a dynamic model with a time-varying community network, inspired by research models on the spread of epidemics in complex networks across communities. We assume subnets of the network as communities and links that are dense in subnets but sparse between subnets. Using numerical simulation and theoretical analysis, we find that the efficiency of network malware propagation in this model depends on the mobility rate q of the nodes between subnets. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The network malware will spread in the SDN when the mobility rate q>qc. The malware will survive when q>qc and perish when qmodel is effective, and the results may help to decide the SDN control strategy to defend against network malware and provide a theoretical basis to reduce and prevent network security incidents.

  6. Development of an Improved Time Varying Loudness Model with the Inclusion of Binaural Loudness Summation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonneau, Jeremy

    As the perceived quality of a product is becoming more important in the manufacturing industry, more emphasis is being placed on accurately predicting the sound quality of everyday objects. This study was undertaken to improve upon current prediction techniques with regard to the psychoacoustic descriptor of loudness and an improved binaural summation technique. The feasibility of this project was first investigated through a loudness matching experiment involving thirty-one subjects and pure tones of constant sound pressure level. A dependence of binaural summation on frequency was observed which had previously not been a subject of investigation in the reviewed literature. A follow-up investigation was carried out with forty-eight volunteers and pure tones of constant sensation level. Contrary to existing theories in literature the resulting loudness matches revealed an amplitude versus frequency relationship which confirmed the perceived increase in loudness when a signal was presented to both ears simultaneously as opposed to one ear alone. The resulting trend strongly indicated that the higher the frequency of the presented signal, the greater the increase in observed binaural summation. The results from each investigation were summarized into a single binaural summation algorithm and inserted into an improved time-varying loudness model. Using experimental techniques, it was demonstrated that the updated binaural summation algorithm was a considerable improvement over the state of the art approach for predicting the perceived binaural loudness. The improved function retained the ease of use from the original model while additionally providing accurate estimates of diotic listening conditions from monaural WAV files. It was clearly demonstrated using a validation jury test that the revised time-varying loudness model was a significant improvement over the previously standardized approach.

  7. An automated method to morph finite element whole-body human models with a wide range of stature and body shape for both men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Fanta, Abeselom; Reed, Matthew P; Neal, Mark; Wang, Jenne-Tai; Lin, Chin-Hsu; Hu, Jingwen

    2017-07-26

    Field data analyses have shown that small female, obese, and/or older occupants are at increased risks of death and serious injury in motor-vehicle crashes compared with mid-size young men. The current adult finite element (FE) human models represent occupants in the same three body sizes (large male, mid-size male, and small female) as those for the contemporary adult crash dummies. Further, the time needed to develop an FE human model using the traditional method is measured in months or even years. In the current study, an improved regional mesh morphing method based on landmark-based radial basis function (RBF) interpolation was developed to rapidly morph a mid-size male FE human model into different geometry targets. A total of 100 human models with a wide range of human attributes were generated. A pendulum chest impact condition was applied to each model as an initial assessment of the resulting variability in response. The morphed models demonstrated mesh quality similar to the baseline model. The peak impact forces and chest deflections in the chest pendulum impacts varied substantially with different models, supportive of consideration of population variation in evaluating the occupant injury risks. The method developed in this study will enable future safety design optimizations targeting at various vulnerable populations that cannot be considered with the current models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparison of different Kalman filter approaches in deriving time varying connectivity from EEG data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghumare, Eshwar; Schrooten, Maarten; Vandenberghe, Rik; Dupont, Patrick

    2015-08-01

    Kalman filter approaches are widely applied to derive time varying effective connectivity from electroencephalographic (EEG) data. For multi-trial data, a classical Kalman filter (CKF) designed for the estimation of single trial data, can be implemented by trial-averaging the data or by averaging single trial estimates. A general linear Kalman filter (GLKF) provides an extension for multi-trial data. In this work, we studied the performance of the different Kalman filtering approaches for different values of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), number of trials and number of EEG channels. We used a simulated model from which we calculated scalp recordings. From these recordings, we estimated cortical sources. Multivariate autoregressive model parameters and partial directed coherence was calculated for these estimated sources and compared with the ground-truth. The results showed an overall superior performance of GLKF except for low levels of SNR and number of trials.

  9. A nonlinear beam model to describe the postbuckling of wide neo-Hookean beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Luuk A.; van Hecke, Martin; Coulais, Corentin

    2017-09-01

    Wide beams can exhibit subcritical buckling, i.e. the slope of the force-displacement curve can become negative in the postbuckling regime. In this paper, we capture this intriguing behaviour by constructing a 1D nonlinear beam model, where the central ingredient is the nonlinearity in the stress-strain relation of the beams constitutive material. First, we present experimental and numerical evidence of a transition to subcritical buckling for wide neo-Hookean hyperelastic beams, when their width-to-length ratio exceeds a critical value of 12%. Second, we construct an effective 1D energy density by combining the Mindlin-Reissner kinematics with a nonlinearity in the stress-strain relation. Finally, we establish and solve the governing beam equations to analytically determine the slope of the force-displacement curve in the postbuckling regime. We find, without any adjustable parameters, excellent agreement between the 1D theory, experiments and simulations. Our work extends the understanding of the postbuckling of structures made of wide elastic beams and opens up avenues for the reverse-engineering of instabilities in soft and metamaterials.

  10. Activity-based funding model provides foundation for province-wide best practices in renal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Adeera; Lo, Clifford; Noel, Kevin; Djurdjev, Ogjnenka; Amano, Erlyn C

    2013-01-01

    British Columbia has a unique funding model for renal care in Canada. Patient care is delivered through six health authorities, while funding is administered by the Provincial Renal Agency using an activity-based funding model. The model allocates funding based on a schedule of costs for every element of renal care, excluding physician fees. Accountability, transparency of allocation and tracking of outcomes are key features that ensure successful implementation. The model supports province-wide best practices and equitable care and fosters innovation. Since its introduction, the outpatient renal services budget has grown less than the population, while maintaining or improving clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Longwoods Publishing.

  11. A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Ed; Brown, Peter

    2016-01-01

    As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

  12. Using the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moxnes JF

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available John F Moxnes,1 Øyvind Sandbakk,2 Kjell Hausken31Department for Protection, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, Kjeller, Norway; 2Center for Elite Sports Research, Department of Neuroscience, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; 3Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, NorwayAbstract: The current study adapts the power balance model to simulate cross-country skiing on varying terrain. We assumed that the skier’s locomotive power at a self-chosen pace is a function of speed, which is impacted by friction, incline, air drag, and mass. An elite male skier’s position along the track during ski skating was simulated and compared with his experimental data. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature based on the skier's mass, snow conditions, and speed. We regard the fit as good, since the difference in racing time between simulations and measurements was 2 seconds of the 815 seconds racing time, with acceptable fit both in uphill and downhill terrain. Using this model, we estimated the influence of changes in various factors such as air drag, friction, and body mass on performance. In conclusion, the power balance model with locomotive power as a function of speed was found to be a valid tool for analyzing performance in cross-country skiing.Keywords: air drag, efficiency, friction coefficient, speed, locomotive power

  13. Software engineering the mixed model for genome-wide association studies on large samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiwu; Buckler, Edward S; Casstevens, Terry M; Bradbury, Peter J

    2009-11-01

    Mixed models improve the ability to detect phenotype-genotype associations in the presence of population stratification and multiple levels of relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but for large data sets the resource consumption becomes impractical. At the same time, the sample size and number of markers used for GWAS is increasing dramatically, resulting in greater statistical power to detect those associations. The use of mixed models with increasingly large data sets depends on the availability of software for analyzing those models. While multiple software packages implement the mixed model method, no single package provides the best combination of fast computation, ability to handle large samples, flexible modeling and ease of use. Key elements of association analysis with mixed models are reviewed, including modeling phenotype-genotype associations using mixed models, population stratification, kinship and its estimation, variance component estimation, use of best linear unbiased predictors or residuals in place of raw phenotype, improving efficiency and software-user interaction. The available software packages are evaluated, and suggestions made for future software development.

  14. Estimating System-wide Impacts of Smart Grid Demonstrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, Kevin P.; Lightner, Eric M.; Fuller, Jason C.

    2015-03-01

    Quantifying the impact of a new technology on a single specific distribution feeder is relatively easy, but it does not provide insight into the complexities and variations of a system-wide deployment. It is the inability to extrapolate system-wide impacts that hinders the deployment of many promising new technologies. This paper presents a method of extrapolating technology impacts, either simulated or from a field demonstration, from a limited number of distribution feeders to a system-wide impact. The size of the system can vary from the service territory of a single utility, to a region, or to an entire country. The paper will include an example analysis using the United States Department of Energy (DOE) funded Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) projects, extrapolating their benefits to a national level.

  15. New varying speed of light theories

    CERN Document Server

    Magueijo, J

    2003-01-01

    We review recent work on the possibility of a varying speed of light (VSL). We start by discussing the physical meaning of a varying $c$, dispelling the myth that the constancy of $c$ is a matter of logical consistency. We then summarize the main VSL mechanisms proposed so far: hard breaking of Lorentz invariance; bimetric theories (where the speeds of gravity and light are not the same); locally Lorentz invariant VSL theories; theories exhibiting a color dependent speed of light; varying $c$ induced by extra dimensions (e.g. in the brane-world scenario); and field theories where VSL results from vacuum polarization or CPT violation. We show how VSL scenarios may solve the cosmological problems usually tackled by inflation, and also how they may produce a scale-invariant spectrum of Gaussian fluctuations, capable of explaining the WMAP data. We then review the connection between VSL and theories of quantum gravity, showing how ``doubly special'' relativity has emerged as a VSL effective model of quantum space...

  16. How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; hide

    2014-01-01

    Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

  17. Studying the mechanisms of language learning by varying the learning environment and the learner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldin-Meadow, Susan

    Language learning is a resilient process, and many linguistic properties can be developed under a wide range of learning environments and learners. The first goal of this review is to describe properties of language that can be developed without exposure to a language model - the resilient properties of language - and to explore conditions under which more fragile properties emerge. But even if a linguistic property is resilient, the developmental course that the property follows is likely to vary as a function of learning environment and learner, that is, there are likely to be individual differences in the learning trajectories children follow. The second goal is to consider how the resilient properties are brought to bear on language learning when a child is exposed to a language model. The review ends by considering the implications of both sets of findings for mechanisms, focusing on the role that the body and linguistic input play in language learning.

  18. A mathematical model for batch and continuous thickening of flocculent suspensions in vessels with varying section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, R.; Damasceno, J.J.R.; Karlesen, K.H.

    2001-10-01

    The phenomenological theory of continuous thickening of flocculated suspensions in an ideal cylindrical thickener is extended to vessels having varying cross-section, including divergent or convergent conical vessels. The purpose of this contribution is to draw attention to the corresponding mathematical model, whose key ingredient is a strongly degenerate parabolic partial differential equation. For ideal (non-flocculated) suspensions, which do not form co compressible sediments, the mathematical model reduces to the kinematic approach by Anestis, who developed a method of construction of exact solution by the method of characteristics. The difficulty lies in the fact that characteristics and iso-concentration lines, unlike the conventional Kynch model for cylindrical vessels, do not coincide, and one has to resort to numerical methods to simulate the thickening process. A numerical algorithm is presented and employed for simulations of continuous thickening. Implications of the mathematical model are also demonstrated by steady-state calculations, which lead to new possibilities in thickener design. (author)

  19. ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

    2010-03-01

    Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and

  20. A simulation of cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a mathematical power balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moxnes, John F; Sandbakk, Oyvind; Hausken, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    The current study simulated cross-country skiing on varying terrain by using a power balance model. By applying the hypothetical inductive deductive method, we compared the simulated position along the track with actual skiing on snow, and calculated the theoretical effect of friction and air drag on skiing performance. As input values in the model, air drag and friction were estimated from the literature, whereas the model included relationships between heart rate, metabolic rate, and work rate based on the treadmill roller-ski testing of an elite cross-country skier. We verified this procedure by testing four models of metabolic rate against experimental data on the treadmill. The experimental data corresponded well with the simulations, with the best fit when work rate was increased on uphill and decreased on downhill terrain. The simulations predicted that skiing time increases by 3%-4% when either friction or air drag increases by 10%. In conclusion, the power balance model was found to be a useful tool for predicting how various factors influence racing performance in cross-country skiing.

  1. Computing Conditional VaR using Time-varying CopulasComputing Conditional VaR using Time-varying Copulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available It is now widespread the use of Value-at-Risk (VaR as a canonical measure at risk. Most accurate VaR measures make use of some volatility model such as GARCH-type models. However, the pattern of volatility dynamic of a portfolio follows from the (univariate behavior of the risk assets, as well as from the type and strength of the associations among them. Moreover, the dependence structure among the components may change conditionally t past observations. Some papers have attempted to model this characteristic by assuming a multivariate GARCH model, or by considering the conditional correlation coefficient, or by incorporating some possibility for switches in regimes. In this paper we address this problem using time-varying copulas. Our modeling strategy allows for the margins to follow some FIGARCH type model while the copula dependence structure changes over time.

  2. Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods : the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and

  3. Interacting viscous entropy-corrected holographic scalar field models of dark energy with time-varying G in modified FRW cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adabi, Farzin; Karami, Kayoomars; Felegary, Fereshte; Azarmi, Zohre

    2012-01-01

    We study the entropy-corrected version of the holographic dark energy (HDE) model in the framework of modified Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology. We consider a non-flat universe filled with an interacting viscous entropy-corrected HDE (ECHDE) with dark matter. Also included in our model is the case of the variable gravitational constant G. We obtain the equation of state and the deceleration parameters of the interacting viscous ECHDE. Moreover, we reconstruct the potential and the dynamics of the quintessence, tachyon, K-essence and dilaton scalar field models according to the evolutionary behavior of the interacting viscous ECHDE model with time-varying G. (research papers)

  4. Applicability of the Linear Sorption Isotherm Model to Represent Contaminant Transport Processes in Site Wide Performance Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FOGWELL, T.W.; LAST, G.V.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of flux of contaminants through the vadose zone to the groundwater under varying geologic, hydrologic, and chemical conditions is key to making technically credible and sound decisions regarding soil site characterization and remediation, single-shell tank retrieval, and waste site closures (DOE 2000). One of the principal needs identified in the science and technology roadmap (DOE 2000) is the need to improve the conceptual and numerical models that describe the location of contaminants today, and to provide the basis for forecasting future movement of contaminants on both site-specific and site-wide scales. The State of Knowledge (DOE 1999) and Preliminary Concepts documents describe the importance of geochemical processes on the transport of contaminants through the Vadose Zone. These processes have been identified in the international list of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) (NEA 2000) and included in the list of FEPS currently being developed for Hanford Site assessments (Soler et al. 2001). The current vision for Hanford site-wide cumulative risk assessments as performed using the System Assessment Capability (SAC) is to represent contaminant adsorption using the linear isotherm (empirical distribution coefficient, K d ) sorption model. Integration Project Expert Panel (PEP) comments indicate that work is required to adequately justify the applicability of the linear sorption model, and to identify and defend the range of K d values that are adopted for assessments. The work plans developed for the Science and Technology (S and T) efforts, SAC, and the Core Projects must answer directly the question of ''Is there a scientific basis for the application of the linear sorption isotherm model to the complex wastes of the Hanford Site?'' This paper is intended to address these issues. The reason that well documented justification is required for using the linear sorption (K d ) model is that this approach is strictly empirical and is often

  5. Brane world cosmologies with varying speed of light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youm, Donam

    2001-02-01

    We study cosmologies in the Randall-Sundrum models, incorporating the possibility of time-varying speed of light and Newton's constant. The cosmologies with varying speed of light (VSL) were proposed by Moffat and by Albrecht and Magueijo as an alternative to inflation for solving the cosmological problems. We consider the case in which the speed of light varies with time after the radion or the scale of the extra dimension has been stabilized. We elaborate on the conditions under which the flatness problem and the cosmological constant problem can be resolved. Particularly, the VSL cosmologies may provide a possible mechanism for bringing the quantum corrections to the fine-tuned brane tensions after the SUSY breaking under control. (author)

  6. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Miranda L.; Huang, Li-Shan; Cox, Christopher; Strain, J.J.; Myers, Gary J.; Bonham, Maxine P.; Shamlaye, Conrad F.; Stokes-Riner, Abbie; Wallace, Julie M.W.; Duffy, Emeir M.; Clarkson, Thomas W.; Davidson, Philip W.

    2011-01-01

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy as a case

  7. World wide web and virtual reality in developing and using environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guariso, G.

    2001-01-01

    The application of World wide web as an active component of environmental decision support system is still largely unexplored. Environmental problems are distributed in nature, both from the physical and from the social point of view; the Web is thus an ideal tool to share concepts and decisions among multiple interested parties. Also Virtual Reality (VR) that has not find, up to know, a large application in the development and teaching of environmental models. The paper shows some recent applications that highlight the potential of these tools [it

  8. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Wesley K.; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    -wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via...... analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn’s disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While...... minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local...

  9. Entropy Rate of Time-Varying Wireless Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cika, Arta; Badiu, Mihai Alin; Coon, Justin P.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed framework to analyze the evolution of the random topology of a time-varying wireless network via the information theoretic notion of entropy rate. We consider a propagation channel varying over time with random node positions in a closed space and Rayleigh...... fading affecting the connections between nodes. The existence of an edge between two nodes at given locations is modeled by a Markov chain, enabling memory effects in network dynamics. We then derive a lower and an upper bound on the entropy rate of the spatiotemporal network. The entropy rate measures...

  10. Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model. Roadmap to Effective Intervention Practices #7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Lise; Veguilla, Myrna; Perez Binder, Denise

    2014-01-01

    The Technical Assistance Center on Social Emotional Intervention for Young Children (TACSEI) Roadmap on "Data Decision-Making and Program-Wide Implementation of the Pyramid Model" provides programs with guidance on how to collect and use data to ensure the implementation of the Pyramid Model with fidelity and decision-making that…

  11. LASSIM-A network inference toolbox for genome-wide mechanistic modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Magnusson

    2017-06-01

    with truly systems-level data. We demonstrate the power of this approach by inferring a mechanistically motivated, genome-wide model of the Th2 transcription regulatory system, which plays an important role in several immune related diseases.

  12. Comparison of model microbial allocation parameters in soils of varying texture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerty, S. B.; Slessarev, E.; Schimel, J.

    2017-12-01

    The soil microbial community decomposes the majority of carbon (C) inputs to the soil. However, not all of this C is respired—rather, a substantial portion of the carbon processed by microbes may remain stored in the soil. The balance between C storage and respiration is controlled by microbial turnover rates and C allocation strategies. These microbial community properties may depend on soil texture, which has the potential to influence both the nature and the fate of microbial necromass and extracellular products. To evaluate the role of texture on microbial turnover and C allocation, we sampled four soils from the University of California's Hastings Reserve that varied in texture (one silt loam, two sandy loam, and on clay soil), but support similar grassland plant communities. We added 14C- glucose to the soil and measured the concentration of the label in the carbon dioxide (CO2), microbial biomass, and extractable C pools over 7 weeks. The labeled biomass turned over the slowest in the clay soil; the concentration of labeled biomass was more than 1.5 times the concentration of the other soils after 8 weeks. The clay soil also had the lowest mineralization rate of the label, and mineralization slowed after two weeks. In contrast, in the sandier soils mineralization rates were higher and did not plateau until 5 weeks into the incubation period. We fit the 14C data to a microbial allocation model and estimated microbial parameters; assimilation efficiency, exudation, and biomass specific respiration and turnover for each soil. We compare these parameters across the soil texture gradient to assess the extent to which models may need to account for variability in microbial C allocation across soils of different texture. Our results suggest that microbial C turns over more slowly in high-clay soils than in sandy soils, and that C lost from microbial biomass is retained at higher rates in high-clay soils. Accounting for these differences in microbial allocation

  13. Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

    2014-11-01

    We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

  14. Predicting the Best Fit: A Comparison of Response Surface Models for Midazolam and Alfentanil Sedation in Procedures With Varying Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Jing-Yang; Ting, Chien-Kun; Mandell, M Susan; Chang, Kuang-Yi; Teng, Wei-Nung; Huang, Yu-Yin; Tsou, Mei-Yung

    2016-08-01

    Selecting an effective dose of sedative drugs in combined upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy is complicated by varying degrees of pain stimulation. We tested the ability of 5 response surface models to predict depth of sedation after administration of midazolam and alfentanil in this complex model. The procedure was divided into 3 phases: esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), colonoscopy, and the time interval between the 2 (intersession). The depth of sedation in 33 adult patients was monitored by Observer Assessment of Alertness/Scores. A total of 218 combinations of midazolam and alfentanil effect-site concentrations derived from pharmacokinetic models were used to test 5 response surface models in each of the 3 phases of endoscopy. Model fit was evaluated with objective function value, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), and Spearman ranked correlation. A model was arbitrarily defined as accurate if the predicted probability is effect-site concentrations tested ranged from 1 to 76 ng/mL and from 5 to 80 ng/mL for midazolam and alfentanil, respectively. Midazolam and alfentanil had synergistic effects in colonoscopy and EGD, but additivity was observed in the intersession group. Adequate prediction rates were 84% to 85% in the intersession group, 84% to 88% during colonoscopy, and 82% to 87% during EGD. The reduced Greco and Fixed alfentanil concentration required for 50% of the patients to achieve targeted response Hierarchy models performed better with comparable predictive strength. The reduced Greco model had the lowest AICc with strong correlation in all 3 phases of endoscopy. Dynamic, rather than fixed, γ and γalf in the Hierarchy model improved model fit. The reduced Greco model had the lowest objective function value and AICc and thus the best fit. This model was reliable with acceptable predictive ability based on adequate clinical correlation. We suggest that this model has practical clinical value for patients undergoing procedures

  15. A wide low-mass binary model for the origin of axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kool, M. de; Heuvel, E.P.J. van den

    1985-01-01

    An accreting binary model has been proposed by recent workers to account for the origin of the axially symmetric non-thermal radio sources. The authors show that the only type of binary system that can produce the observed structural properties, is a relatively wide neutron star binary, in which the companion of the neutron star is a low-mass giant. Binaries of this type are expected to resemble closely the eight brightest galactic bulge X-ray sources as well as the progenitors of the two wide radio pulsar binaries. (U.K.)

  16. The varying cosmological constant: a new approximation to the Friedmann equations and universe model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öztaş, Ahmet M.; Dil, Emre; Smith, Michael L.

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the time-dependent nature of the cosmological constant, Λ, of the Einstein Field Equation (EFE). Beginning with the Einstein-Hilbert action as our fundamental principle we develop a modified version of the EFE allowing the value of Λ to vary as a function of time, Λ(t), indirectly, for an expanding universe. We follow the evolving Λ presuming four-dimensional space-time and a flat universe geometry and present derivations of Λ(t) as functions of the Hubble constant, matter density, and volume changes which can be traced back to the radiation epoch. The models are more detailed descriptions of the Λ dependence on cosmological factors than previous, allowing calculations of the important parameters, Ωm and Ωr, to deep lookback times. Since we derive these without the need for extra dimensions or other special conditions our derivations are useful for model evaluation with astronomical data. This should aid resolution of several difficult problems of astronomy such as the best value for the Hubble constant at present and at recombination.

  17. Debating Life on Mars: The Knowledge Integration Environment (KIE) in Varied School Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shear, Linda

    Technology-enabled learning environments are beginning to come of age. Tools and frameworks are now available that have been shown to improve learning and are being deployed more widely in varied school settings. Teachers are now faced with the formidable challenge of integrating these promising new environments with the everyday context in which…

  18. Modelling of the diffusion of pollutants in the atmosphere under varying conditions in large cultivated regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wueneke, C.D.; Schultz, H.

    1975-01-01

    The most important routines of a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method for calculating the transport and the turbulent dispersion of inert and radio-active pollutants in the atmosphere have been programmed and have been tested successfully on the CDC computer CYBER 73/76 of the Regional Computer Centre for Niedersachsen in Hanover. Compared to the Gaussian plume model such a numerical code based on the particle-in-cell-method offers several advantages for the computation of the diffusion under varying conditions in large cultivated regions. (orig.) [de

  19. Effects of ionic strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solon, Kimberly; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi

    2015-01-01

    Plant-wide models of wastewater treatment (such as the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 or BSM2) are gaining popularity for use in holistic virtual studies of treatment plant control and operations. The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections....... The paper describes: 1) how the anaerobic digester performance is affected by physico-chemical corrections; 2) the effect on pH and the anaerobic digestion products (CO2, CH4 and H2); and, 3) how these variations are propagated from the sludge treatment to the water line. Results at high ionic strength...

  20. Error Analysis for RADAR Neighbor Matching Localization in Linear Logarithmic Strength Varying Wi-Fi Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the statistical errors for the fingerprint-based RADAR neighbor matching localization with the linearly calibrated reference points (RPs in logarithmic received signal strength (RSS varying Wi-Fi environment. To the best of our knowledge, little comprehensive analysis work has appeared on the error performance of neighbor matching localization with respect to the deployment of RPs. However, in order to achieve the efficient and reliable location-based services (LBSs as well as the ubiquitous context-awareness in Wi-Fi environment, much attention has to be paid to the highly accurate and cost-efficient localization systems. To this end, the statistical errors by the widely used neighbor matching localization are significantly discussed in this paper to examine the inherent mathematical relations between the localization errors and the locations of RPs by using a basic linear logarithmic strength varying model. Furthermore, based on the mathematical demonstrations and some testing results, the closed-form solutions to the statistical errors by RADAR neighbor matching localization can be an effective tool to explore alternative deployment of fingerprint-based neighbor matching localization systems in the future.

  1. Error Analysis for RADAR Neighbor Matching Localization in Linear Logarithmic Strength Varying Wi-Fi Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zengshan; Xu, Kunjie; Yu, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the statistical errors for the fingerprint-based RADAR neighbor matching localization with the linearly calibrated reference points (RPs) in logarithmic received signal strength (RSS) varying Wi-Fi environment. To the best of our knowledge, little comprehensive analysis work has appeared on the error performance of neighbor matching localization with respect to the deployment of RPs. However, in order to achieve the efficient and reliable location-based services (LBSs) as well as the ubiquitous context-awareness in Wi-Fi environment, much attention has to be paid to the highly accurate and cost-efficient localization systems. To this end, the statistical errors by the widely used neighbor matching localization are significantly discussed in this paper to examine the inherent mathematical relations between the localization errors and the locations of RPs by using a basic linear logarithmic strength varying model. Furthermore, based on the mathematical demonstrations and some testing results, the closed-form solutions to the statistical errors by RADAR neighbor matching localization can be an effective tool to explore alternative deployment of fingerprint-based neighbor matching localization systems in the future. PMID:24683349

  2. Anistropically varying conductivity in irreversible electroporation simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labarbera, Nicholas; Drapaca, Corina

    2017-11-01

    One recent area of cancer research is irreversible electroporation (IRE). Irreversible electroporation is a minimally invasive procedure where needle electrodes are inserted into the body to ablate tumor cells with electricity. The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model that incorporates a tissue's conductivity increasing more in the direction of the electrical field as this has been shown to occur in experiments. It was necessary to mathematically derive a valid form of the conductivity tensor such that it is dependent on the electrical field direction and can be easily implemented into numerical software. The derivation of a conductivity tensor that can take arbitrary functions for the conductivity in the directions tangent and normal to the electrical field is the main contribution of this paper. Numerical simulations were performed for isotropic-varying and anisotropic-varying conductivities to evaluate the importance of including the electrical field's direction in the formulation for conductivity. By starting from previously published experimental results, this paper derived a general formulation for an anistropic-varying tensor for implementation into irreversible electroporation modeling software. The anistropic-varying tensor formulation allows the conductivity to take into consideration both electrical field direction and magnitude, as opposed to previous published works that only took into account electrical field magnitude. The anisotropic formulation predicts roughly a five percent decrease in ablation size for the monopolar simulation and approximately a ten percent decrease in ablation size for the bipolar simulations. This is a positive result as previously reported results found the isotropic formulation to overpredict ablation size for both monopolar and bipolar simulations. Furthermore, it was also reported that the isotropic formulation overpredicts the ablation size more for the bipolar case than the monopolar case. Thus, our

  3. Do Time-Varying Covariances, Volatility Comovement and Spillover Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Lakshmi Balasubramanyan

    2005-01-01

    Financial markets and their respective assets are so intertwined; analyzing any single market in isolation ignores important information. We investigate whether time varying volatility comovement and spillover impact the true variance-covariance matrix under a time-varying correlation set up. Statistically significant volatility spillover and comovement between US, UK and Japan is found. To demonstrate the importance of modelling volatility comovement and spillover, we look at a simple portfo...

  4. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  5. Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yong

    In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

  6. Experiments and numerical modeling of fast flowing liquid metal thin films under spatially varying magnetic field conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narula, Manmeet Singh

    Innovative concepts using fast flowing thin films of liquid metals (like lithium) have been proposed for the protection of the divertor surface in magnetic fusion devices. However, concerns exist about the possibility of establishing the required flow of liquid metal thin films because of the presence of strong magnetic fields which can cause flow disrupting MHD effects. A plan is underway to design liquid lithium based divertor protection concepts for NSTX, a small spherical torus experiment at Princeton. Of these, a promising concept is the use of modularized fast flowing liquid lithium film zones, as the divertor (called the NSTX liquid surface module concept or NSTX LSM). The dynamic response of the liquid metal film flow in a spatially varying magnetic field configuration is still unknown and it is suspected that some unpredicted effects might be lurking. The primary goal of the research work being reported in this dissertation is to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the liquid metal film flow dynamics under spatially varying magnetic field conditions, typical of the divertor region of a magnetic fusion device. The liquid metal film flow dynamics have been studied through a synergic experimental and numerical modeling effort. The Magneto Thermofluid Omnibus Research (MTOR) facility at UCLA has been used to design several experiments to study the MHD interaction of liquid gallium films under a scaled NSTX outboard divertor magnetic field environment. A 3D multi-material, free surface MHD modeling capability is under development in collaboration with HyPerComp Inc., an SBIR vendor. This numerical code called HIMAG provides a unique capability to model the equations of incompressible MHD with a free surface. Some parts of this modeling capability have been developed in this research work, in the form of subroutines for HIMAG. Extensive code debugging and benchmarking exercise has also been carried out. Finally, HIMAG has been used to study the

  7. Fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 plant operated in the mode of varying loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Pelykh

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Main features of a fuel element cladding state change mathematical model for a WWER-1000 reactor plant operated in the mode of varying loading are listed. The integrated model is based on the energy creep theory, uses the finite element method for imultaneous solution of the fuel element heat conduction and mechanical deformation equa-tions. Proposed mathematical model allows us to determine the influence of the WWER-1000 regime parameters and fuel assembly design characteristics on the change of cladding properties under different loading conditions of normal operation, as well as the cladding limiting state at variable loading depending on the length, depth and number of cycles.

  8. Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

    2016-01-01

    The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

  9. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynch, Miranda L., E-mail: Miranda_Lynch@urmc.rochester.edu [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Huang, Li-Shan [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Cox, Christopher [Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (United States); Strain, J.J. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Myers, Gary J. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Bonham, Maxine P. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Shamlaye, Conrad F. [Ministry of Health, Republic of Seychelles (Seychelles); Stokes-Riner, Abbie [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States); Wallace, Julie M.W.; Duffy, Emeir M. [University of Ulster, Coleraine, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Clarkson, Thomas W.; Davidson, Philip W. [University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy

  10. Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie; Schwientek, Patrick; Tremblay, Julien; Schackwitz, Wendy; Martin, Joel; Pati, Amrita; Bushnell, Brian; Foster, Brian; Kang, Dongwan; Tringe, Susannah G.; Bertilsson, Stefan; Moran, Mary Ann; Shade, Ashley; Newton, Ryan J.; Stevens, Sarah; McMcahon, Katherine D.; Mamlstrom, Rex R.

    2014-05-12

    Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ecotype model? of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

  11. Initial locomotor sensitivity to cocaine varies widely among inbred mouse strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiltshire, T; Ervin, R B; Duan, H; Bogue, M A; Zamboni, W C; Cook, S; Chung, W; Zou, F; Tarantino, L M

    2015-03-01

    Initial sensitivity to psychostimulants can predict subsequent use and abuse in humans. Acute locomotor activation in response to psychostimulants is commonly used as an animal model of initial drug sensitivity and has been shown to have a substantial genetic component. Identifying the specific genetic differences that lead to phenotypic differences in initial drug sensitivity can advance our understanding of the processes that lead to addiction. Phenotyping inbred mouse strain panels are frequently used as a first step for studying the genetic architecture of complex traits. We assessed locomotor activation following a single, acute 20 mg/kg dose of cocaine (COC) in males from 45 inbred mouse strains and observed significant phenotypic variation across strains indicating a substantial genetic component. We also measured levels of COC, the active metabolite, norcocaine and the major inactive metabolite, benzoylecgonine, in plasma and brain in the same set of inbred strains. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and behavioral data were significantly correlated, but at a level that indicates that PK alone does not account for the behavioral differences observed across strains. Phenotypic data from this reference population of inbred strains can be utilized in studies aimed at examining the role of psychostimulant-induced locomotor activation on drug reward and reinforcement and to test theories about addiction processes. Moreover, these data serve as a starting point for identifying genes that alter sensitivity to the locomotor stimulatory effects of COC. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and International Behavioural and Neural Genetics Society.

  12. Cost-benefit analysis model: A tool for area-wide fruit fly management. Procedures manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enkerlin, W.; Mumford, J.; Leach, A.

    2007-03-01

    The Generic Fruit Fly Cost-Benefit Analysis Model assists in economic decision making associated with area-wide fruit fly control options. The FRUIT FLY COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS PROGRAM (available on 1 CD-ROM from the Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture) is an Excel 2000 Windows based program, for which all standard Windows and Excel conventions apply. The Model is user friendly and thus largely self-explanatory. Nevertheless, it includes a procedures manual that has been prepared to guide the user, and thus should be used together with the software. Please note that the table presenting the pest management options in the Introductory Page of the model is controlled by spin buttons and click boxes. These controls are linked to macros that hide non relevant tables and boxes. N.B. it is important that the medium level of security is selected from the Tools menu of Excel, to do this go to Tools|Macros|Security| and select Medium. When the file is opened a form will appear containing three buttons, click on the middle button, 'Enable Macros', so that the macros may be used. Ideally the model should be used as a support tool by working groups aiming at assessing the economic returns of different fruit fly control options (suppression, eradication, containment and prevention). The working group should include professionals in agriculture with experience in area-wide implementation of integrated pest management programmes, an economist or at least someone with basic knowledge in economics, and if relevant, an entomologist with some background in the application of the sterile insect technique (SIT)

  13. Dietary adaptation of FADS genes in Europe varied across time and geography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Kaixiong; Gao, Feng; Wang, David; Bar-Yosef, Ofer; Keinan, Alon

    2017-05-26

    Fatty acid desaturase (FADS) genes encode rate-limiting enzymes for the biosynthesis of omega-6 and omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs). This biosynthesis is essential for individuals subsisting on LCPUFA-poor diets (for example, plant-based). Positive selection on FADS genes has been reported in multiple populations, but its cause and pattern in Europeans remain unknown. Here we demonstrate, using ancient and modern DNA, that positive selection acted on the same FADS variants both before and after the advent of farming in Europe, but on opposite (that is, alternative) alleles. Recent selection in farmers also varied geographically, with the strongest signal in southern Europe. These varying selection patterns concur with anthropological evidence of varying diets, and with the association of farming-adaptive alleles with higher FADS1 expression and thus enhanced LCPUFA biosynthesis. Genome-wide association studies reveal that farming-adaptive alleles not only increase LCPUFAs, but also affect other lipid levels and protect against several inflammatory diseases.

  14. Modelling of monovacancy diffusion in W over wide temperature range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukonte, L.; Ahlgren, T.; Heinola, K.

    2014-01-01

    The diffusion of monovacancies in tungsten is studied computationally over a wide temperature range from 1300 K until the melting point of the material. Our modelling is based on Molecular Dynamics technique and Density Functional Theory. The monovacancy migration barriers are calculated using nudged elastic band method for nearest and next-nearest neighbour monovacancy jumps. The diffusion pre-exponential factor for monovacancy diffusion is found to be two to three orders of magnitude higher than commonly used in computational studies, resulting in attempt frequency of the order 10 15 Hz. Multiple nearest neighbour jumps of monovacancy are found to play an important role in the contribution to the total diffusion coefficient, especially at temperatures above 2/3 of T m , resulting in an upward curvature of the Arrhenius diagram. The probabilities for different nearest neighbour jumps for monovacancy in W are calculated at different temperatures

  15. Design and implementation of multi-signal and time-varying neural reconstructions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, Sumit; Chen, Hanbo; Das, Ravi; Bhattacharjee, Shatabdi; Cuntz, Hermann; Torben-Nielsen, Benjamin; Peng, Hanchuan; Cox, Daniel N; De Schutter, Erik; Ascoli, Giorgio A

    2018-01-23

    Several efficient procedures exist to digitally trace neuronal structure from light microscopy, and mature community resources have emerged to store, share, and analyze these datasets. In contrast, the quantification of intracellular distributions and morphological dynamics is not yet standardized. Current widespread descriptions of neuron morphology are static and inadequate for subcellular characterizations. We introduce a new file format to represent multichannel information as well as an open-source Vaa3D plugin to acquire this type of data. Next we define a novel data structure to capture morphological dynamics, and demonstrate its application to different time-lapse experiments. Importantly, we designed both innovations as judicious extensions of the classic SWC format, thus ensuring full back-compatibility with popular visualization and modeling tools. We then deploy the combined multichannel/time-varying reconstruction system on developing neurons in live Drosophila larvae by digitally tracing fluorescently labeled cytoskeletal components along with overall dendritic morphology as they changed over time. This same design is also suitable for quantifying dendritic calcium dynamics and tracking arbor-wide movement of any subcellular substrate of interest.

  16. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley K Thompson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD and the other for schizophrenia (SZ. A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the

  17. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Wesley K; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J; Witoelar, Aree; Zuber, Verena; Xu, Shujing; Werge, Thomas; Holland, Dominic; Andreassen, Ole A; Dale, Anders M

    2015-12-01

    Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD) on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the implications of

  18. Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996-Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeul, Vince R; Cole, Charles R; Bergeron, Marcel P; Thorne, Paul D; Wurstner, Signe K

    2001-01-01

    The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty

  19. Central recirculation zone analysis in an unconfined tangential swirl burner with varying degrees of premixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valera-Medina, A. [CIATEQ, Parque Industrial Bernardo Quintana, Turbomachinery Department, Queretaro (Mexico); Syred, N.; Kay, P.; Griffiths, A. [Cardiff University, School of Engineering, Cardiff, Wales (United Kingdom)

    2011-06-15

    Swirl-stabilised combustion is one of the most widely used techniques for flame stabilisation, uses ranging from gas turbine combustors to pulverised coal-fired power stations. In gas turbines, lean premixed systems are of especial importance, giving the ability to produce low NOx systems coupled with wide stability limits. The common element is the swirl burner, which depends on the generation of an aerodynamically formed central recirculation zone (CRZ) and which serves to recycle heat and active chemical species to the root of the flame as well as providing low-velocity regions where the flame speed can match the local flow velocity. Enhanced mixing in and around the CRZ is another beneficial feature. The structure of the CRZ and hence that of the associated flames, stabilisation and mixing processes have shown to be extremely complex, three-dimensional and time dependent. The characteristics of the CRZ depend very strongly on the level of swirl (swirl number), burner configuration, type of flow expansion, Reynolds number (i.e. flowrate) and equivalence ratio. Although numerical methods have had some success when compared to experimental results, the models still have difficulties at medium to high swirl levels, with complex geometries and varied equivalence ratios. This study thus focuses on experimental results obtained to characterise the CRZ formed under varied combustion conditions with different geometries and some variation of swirl number in a generic swirl burner. CRZ behaviour has similarities to the equivalent isothermal state, but is strongly dependent on equivalence ratio, with interesting effects occurring with a high-velocity fuel injector. Partial premixing and combustion cause more substantive changes to the CRZ than pure diffusive combustion. (orig.)

  20. Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

  1. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  2. Convergent Time-Varying Regression Models for Data Streams: Tracking Concept Drift by the Recursive Parzen-Based Generalized Regression Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Piotr; Jaworski, Maciej; Rutkowski, Leszek

    2018-03-01

    One of the greatest challenges in data mining is related to processing and analysis of massive data streams. Contrary to traditional static data mining problems, data streams require that each element is processed only once, the amount of allocated memory is constant and the models incorporate changes of investigated streams. A vast majority of available methods have been developed for data stream classification and only a few of them attempted to solve regression problems, using various heuristic approaches. In this paper, we develop mathematically justified regression models working in a time-varying environment. More specifically, we study incremental versions of generalized regression neural networks, called IGRNNs, and we prove their tracking properties - weak (in probability) and strong (with probability one) convergence assuming various concept drift scenarios. First, we present the IGRNNs, based on the Parzen kernels, for modeling stationary systems under nonstationary noise. Next, we extend our approach to modeling time-varying systems under nonstationary noise. We present several types of concept drifts to be handled by our approach in such a way that weak and strong convergence holds under certain conditions. Finally, in the series of simulations, we compare our method with commonly used heuristic approaches, based on forgetting mechanism or sliding windows, to deal with concept drift. Finally, we apply our concept in a real life scenario solving the problem of currency exchange rates prediction.

  3. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  4. Tracking time-varying parameters with local regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred Karsten; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm with forgetting factor is a special case of a varying-coe\\$cient model, and a model which can easily be estimated via simple local regression. This observation allows us to formulate a new method which retains the RLS algorithm, bu......, but extends the algorithm by including polynomial approximations. Simulation results are provided, which indicates that this new method is superior to the classical RLS method, if the parameter variations are smooth....

  5. Cellular automaton model in the fundamental diagram approach reproducing the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Jun-fang; Yuan, Zhen-zhou; Jia, Bin; Fan, Hong-qiang; Wang, Tao

    2012-01-01

    Velocity effect and critical velocity are incorporated into the average space gap cellular automaton model [J.F. Tian, et al., Phys. A 391 (2012) 3129], which was able to reproduce many spatiotemporal dynamics reported by the three-phase theory except the synchronized outflow of wide moving jams. The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. It is shown that the occurrence of synchronized outflow, free outflow of wide moving jams is closely related with drivers time delay in acceleration at the downstream jam front and the critical velocity, respectively. -- Highlights: ► Velocity effect is added into average space gap cellular automaton model. ► The physics of traffic breakdown has been explained. ► The probabilistic nature of traffic breakdown is simulated. ► Various congested patterns induced by the on-ramp are reproduced. ► The occurrence of synchronized outflow of jams depends on drivers time delay.

  6. A Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Model for the Waipaoa Shelf, New Zealand: Sensitivity of Fluxes to Spatially-Varying Erodibility and Model Nesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia M. Moriarty

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Numerical models can complement observations in investigations of marine sediment transport and depositional processes. A coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model was implemented for the Waipaoa River continental shelf offshore of the North Island of New Zealand, to complement a 13-month field campaign that collected seabed and hydrodynamic measurements. This paper described the formulations used within the model, and analyzed the sensitivity of sediment flux estimates to model nesting and seabed erodibility. Calculations were based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System—Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (ROMS-CSTMS, a primitive equation model using a finite difference solution to the equations for momentum and water mass conservation, and transport of salinity, temperature, and multiple classes of suspended sediment. The three-dimensional model resolved the complex bathymetry, bottom boundary layer, and river plume that impact sediment dispersal on this shelf, and accounted for processes including fluvial input, winds, waves, tides, and sediment resuspension. Nesting within a larger-scale, lower resolution hydrodynamic model stabilized model behavior during river floods and allowed large-scale shelf currents to impact sediment dispersal. To better represent observations showing that sediment erodibility decreased away from the river mouth, the seabed erosion rate parameter was reduced with water depth. This allowed the model to account for the observed spatial pattern of erodibility, though the model held the critical shear stress for erosion constant. Although the model neglected consolidation and swelling processes, use of a spatially-varying erodibility parameter significantly increased export of fluvial sediment from Poverty Bay to deeper areas of the shelf.

  7. Shape and Spatially-Varying Reflectance Estimation from Virtual Exemplars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Zhuo; Sankaranarayanan, Aswin C

    2017-10-01

    This paper addresses the problem of estimating the shape of objects that exhibit spatially-varying reflectance. We assume that multiple images of the object are obtained under a fixed view-point and varying illumination, i.e., the setting of photometric stereo. At the core of our techniques is the assumption that the BRDF at each pixel lies in the non-negative span of a known BRDF dictionary. This assumption enables a per-pixel surface normal and BRDF estimation framework that is computationally tractable and requires no initialization in spite of the underlying problem being non-convex. Our estimation framework first solves for the surface normal at each pixel using a variant of example-based photometric stereo. We design an efficient multi-scale search strategy for estimating the surface normal and subsequently, refine this estimate using a gradient descent procedure. Given the surface normal estimate, we solve for the spatially-varying BRDF by constraining the BRDF at each pixel to be in the span of the BRDF dictionary; here, we use additional priors to further regularize the solution. A hallmark of our approach is that it does not require iterative optimization techniques nor the need for careful initialization, both of which are endemic to most state-of-the-art techniques. We showcase the performance of our technique on a wide range of simulated and real scenes where we outperform competing methods.

  8. Variability in the measurement of hospital-wide mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Wolf, Robert E; Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kirle, Leslie; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

    2010-12-23

    Several countries use hospital-wide mortality rates to evaluate the quality of hospital care, although the usefulness of this metric has been questioned. Massachusetts policymakers recently requested an assessment of methods to calculate this aggregate mortality metric for use as a measure of hospital quality. The Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy provided four vendors with identical information on 2,528,624 discharges from Massachusetts acute care hospitals from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2007. Vendors applied their risk-adjustment algorithms and provided predicted probabilities of in-hospital death for each discharge and for hospital-level observed and expected mortality rates. We compared the numbers and characteristics of discharges and hospitals included by each of the four methods. We also compared hospitals' standardized mortality ratios and classification of hospitals with mortality rates that were higher or lower than expected, according to each method. The proportions of discharges that were included by each method ranged from 28% to 95%, and the severity of patients' diagnoses varied widely. Because of their discharge-selection criteria, two methods calculated in-hospital mortality rates (4.0% and 5.9%) that were twice the state average (2.1%). Pairwise associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) of discharge-level predicted mortality probabilities ranged from 0.46 to 0.70. Hospital-performance categorizations varied substantially and were sometimes completely discordant. In 2006, a total of 12 of 28 hospitals that had higher-than-expected hospital-wide mortality when classified by one method had lower-than-expected mortality when classified by one or more of the other methods. Four common methods for calculating hospital-wide mortality produced substantially different results. This may have resulted from a lack of standardized national eligibility and exclusion criteria, different statistical methods, or

  9. SoftWAXS: a computational tool for modeling wide-angle X-ray solution scattering from biomolecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep; Park, Sanghyun; Makowski, Lee

    2009-10-01

    This paper describes a computational approach to estimating wide-angle X-ray solution scattering (WAXS) from proteins, which has been implemented in a computer program called SoftWAXS. The accuracy and efficiency of SoftWAXS are analyzed for analytically solvable model problems as well as for proteins. Key features of the approach include a numerical procedure for performing the required spherical averaging and explicit representation of the solute-solvent boundary and the surface of the hydration layer. These features allow the Fourier transform of the excluded volume and hydration layer to be computed directly and with high accuracy. This approach will allow future investigation of different treatments of the electron density in the hydration shell. Numerical results illustrate the differences between this approach to modeling the excluded volume and a widely used model that treats the excluded-volume function as a sum of Gaussians representing the individual atomic excluded volumes. Comparison of the results obtained here with those from explicit-solvent molecular dynamics clarifies shortcomings inherent to the representation of solvent as a time-averaged electron-density profile. In addition, an assessment is made of how the calculated scattering patterns depend on input parameters such as the solute-atom radii, the width of the hydration shell and the hydration-layer contrast. These results suggest that obtaining predictive calculations of high-resolution WAXS patterns may require sophisticated treatments of solvent.

  10. Projected space-time and varying speed of light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iovane, G.; Bellucci, S.; Benedetto, E.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper starting from El Naschie's Cantorian space-time and our model of projected Universe, we consider its properties in connection with varying speed of light. A possible way-out of the related problem is provided by the Fantappie group approach

  11. Time-varying correlation and common structures in volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Yang

    2016-01-01

    This thesis studies time series properties of the covariance structure of multivariate asset returns. First, the time-varying feature of correlation is investigated at the intraday level with a new correlation model incorporating the intraday correlation dynamics. Second, the thesis develops a

  12. Control of Linear Parameter Varying Systems with Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mohammadpour, Javad

    2012-01-01

    Control of Linear Parameter Varying Systems with Applications compiles state-of-the-art contributions on novel analytical and computational methods to address system modeling and identification, complexity reduction, performance analysis and control design for time-varying and nonlinear systems in the LPV framework. The book has an interdisciplinary character by emphasizing techniques that can be commonly applied in various engineering fields. It also includes a rich collection of illustrative applications in diverse domains to substantiate the effectiveness of the design methodologies and provide pointers to open research directions. The book is divided into three parts. The first part collects chapters of a more tutorial character on the background of LPV systems modeling and control. The second part gathers chapters devoted to the theoretical advancement of LPV analysis and synthesis methods to cope with the design constraints such as uncertainties and time delay. The third part of the volume showcases con...

  13. World-Wide Web: The Information Universe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berners-Lee, Tim; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Describes the World-Wide Web (W3) project, which is designed to create a global information universe using techniques of hypertext, information retrieval, and wide area networking. Discussion covers the W3 data model, W3 architecture, the document naming scheme, protocols, document formats, comparison with other systems, experience with the W3…

  14. Topology preserving non-rigid image registration using time-varying elasticity model for MRI brain volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Sahar; Khan, Muhammad Faisal

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we present a new non-rigid image registration method that imposes a topology preservation constraint on the deformation. We propose to incorporate the time varying elasticity model into the deformable image matching procedure and constrain the Jacobian determinant of the transformation over the entire image domain. The motion of elastic bodies is governed by a hyperbolic partial differential equation, generally termed as elastodynamics wave equation, which we propose to use as a deformation model. We carried out clinical image registration experiments on 3D magnetic resonance brain scans from IBSR database. The results of the proposed registration approach in terms of Kappa index and relative overlap computed over the subcortical structures were compared against the existing topology preserving non-rigid image registration methods and non topology preserving variant of our proposed registration scheme. The Jacobian determinant maps obtained with our proposed registration method were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results demonstrated that the proposed scheme provides good registration accuracy with smooth transformations, thereby guaranteeing the preservation of topology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The propagation of varied timescale perturbations in landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, N.; Johnson, K. N.; Bookhagen, B.; Chadwick, O.

    2016-12-01

    The classic assumption of steady-state landscapes greatly simplifies models of earth-surface processes. Theoretically, steady-state denotes time independence, but in real landscapes steady-state requires a timescale over which to assume (or document) no change. In the past, poor spatiotemporal resolution of eroding landscapes necessitated that shorter timescale perturbations be ignored in favor of regional formulations of rock uplift = erosion, 105, 6 years. Now, novel techniques and technologies provide an opportunity to define local landscape response to various timescales of perturbations; thus, allowing us to consider multiple steady-states on adjacent watersheds or even along a single watershed. This study seeks to identify the physical propagation of varied timescale perturbations in landscapes in order to provide an updated geomorphic context for interpreting critical zone processes. At our study site - Santa Cruz Island (SCI), CA - perturbations include sea level and climate fluctuations over 105 years coupled with pulses of overgrazing and extreme storm events during the last 200 years. Comprehensive knickpoint location maps and dated marine and fill terraces tighten the spatiotemporal constraints on erosion for SCI. In addition, the island hosts a wide range of lithologies, allowing us to compare lithologic effects on landscape response to perturbations. Our study uses lidar point clouds and high resolution (0.25 and 1 m) digital elevation model analysis to segment landscapes by the degree of their response to perturbations. Landscape response is measured by increases in topographic roughness. We ascertain roughness by analyzing the changes in different terrain attributes on multiple spatial scales: catchment, sub-catchments and individual hillslopes. Terrain attributes utilized include slope, curvature, local relief, flowpath length and contributing catchment area. Statistical analysis of these properties indicates narrower ranges in values for regions

  16. Impact Response Comparison Between Parametric Human Models and Postmortem Human Subjects with a Wide Range of Obesity Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Wang, Yulong; Hwang, Eunjoo; Reed, Matthew P; Forman, Jason; Hu, Jingwen

    2017-10-01

    Field data analyses have shown that obesity significantly increases the occupant injury risks in motor vehicle crashes, but the injury assessment tools for people with obesity are largely lacking. The objectives of this study were to use a mesh morphing method to rapidly generate parametric finite element models with a wide range of obesity levels and to evaluate their biofidelity against impact tests using postmortem human subjects (PMHS). Frontal crash tests using three PMHS seated in a vehicle rear seat compartment with body mass index (BMI) from 24 to 40 kg/m 2 were selected. To develop the human models matching the PMHS geometry, statistical models of external body shape, rib cage, pelvis, and femur were applied to predict the target geometry using age, sex, stature, and BMI. A mesh morphing method based on radial basis functions was used to rapidly morph a baseline human model into the target geometry. The model-predicted body excursions and injury measures were compared to the PMHS tests. Comparisons of occupant kinematics and injury measures between the tests and simulations showed reasonable correlations across the wide range of BMI levels. The parametric human models have the capability to account for the obesity effects on the occupant impact responses and injury risks. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  17. Identification of time-varying structural dynamic systems - An artificial intelligence approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

    1992-01-01

    An application of the artificial intelligence-derived methodologies of heuristic search and object-oriented programming to the problem of identifying the form of the model and the associated parameters of a time-varying structural dynamic system is presented in this paper. Possible model variations due to changes in boundary conditions or configurations of a structure are organized into a taxonomy of models, and a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose simulated response best matches that of the current physical structure. Simulated model responses are verified experimentally. An output-error approach is used in a discontinuous model space, and an equation-error approach is used in the parameter space. The advantages of the AI methods used, compared with conventional programming techniques for implementing knowledge structuring and inheritance, are discussed. Convergence conditions and example problems have been discussed. In the example problem, both the time-varying model and its new parameters have been identified when changes occur.

  18. Robust stability analysis of switched Hopfield neural networks with time-varying delay under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang He; Qu Yuzhong; Li Hanxiong

    2005-01-01

    With the development of intelligent control, switched systems have been widely studied. Here we try to introduce some ideas of the switched systems into the field of neural networks. In this Letter, a class of switched Hopfield neural networks with time-varying delay is investigated. The parametric uncertainty is considered and assumed to be norm bounded. Firstly, the mathematical model of the switched Hopfield neural networks is established in which a set of Hopfield neural networks are used as the individual subsystems and an arbitrary switching rule is assumed; Secondly, robust stability analysis for such switched Hopfield neural networks is addressed based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii approach. Some criteria are given to guarantee the switched Hopfield neural networks to be globally exponentially stable for all admissible parametric uncertainties. These conditions are expressed in terms of some strict linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate our results

  19. Bivariate functional data clustering: grouping streams based on a varying coefficient model of the stream water and air temperature relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Li; X. Deng; Andy Dolloff; E. P. Smith

    2015-01-01

    A novel clustering method for bivariate functional data is proposed to group streams based on their water–air temperature relationship. A distance measure is developed for bivariate curves by using a time-varying coefficient model and a weighting scheme. This distance is also adjusted by spatial correlation of streams via the variogram. Therefore, the proposed...

  20. Nasa-wide Standard Administrative Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneck, P.

    1984-01-01

    Factors to be considered in developing agency-wide standard administrative systems for NASA include uniformity of hardware and software; centralization vs. decentralization; risk exposure; and models for software development.

  1. Physical models for the hypothesized F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu infrared to X-ray continuum of quasi-stellar objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, W.A.

    1991-01-01

    Models for producing the large ultraviolet bump, low-energy X-rays and the hypothesized F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu IR to X-ray continua of QSOs are investigated. Thermal Comptonization in a hot corona of an accretion disk appears to offer the best potential. However, under the energy input conditions in QSOs a corona will reach T above 100 million K. It must be optically thin, so as to not Comptonize the accretion disk ultraviolet emission to an unacceptable extent. However, it then cannot Comptonize a low-frequency source to an F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu continuum extending from the infrared to X-rays. An inner corona, possibly optically thick because of n varies as the sq rt of r density increase, is required for the F(nu) varies as the inverse of nu continuum, but it cannot therefore cover the UV-emitting accretion disk. However, then a Wien peak associated with this inner volume may be implied at 10 keV, contrary to observations. 42 refs

  2. Modeling and control of LCL-filtered grid-tied inverters with wide inductance variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Chuan; Li, Kai; Zhang, Gang

    2017-01-01

    with the changing of the inductor current in one cycle of the grid, which challenges the system stability and power quality. In this paper, the current-dependent small-signal model of a three-phase LCL-filtered inverter is derived for designing the corresponding controller. Based on the developed small-signal model......Because of the low power losses and moderate cost, the magnetic powder cores are popular in producing the filtering inductors for the high efficient and cost-effective power converters. However, the soft magnetic property of the powder cores leads to the wide variation of inductance along......, a capacitor current feedback based active damping loop and a fractional order repetitive control based compound current control loop are designed to stabilize the system and enhance the control accuracy in steady-state, respectively. The controller design procedure is given in detail. Finally, all...

  3. Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

  4. Effects of ion strength and ion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Solon, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    the effects that an improved physico-chemical description will have on the predicted effluent quality (EQI) and operational cost (OCI) indices. The acid-base equilibria implemented in the Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) are modified to account for non-ideal aqueous-phase chemistry. The model corrects......The objective of this study is to show the influence of ionic strength (as activity corrections) andion pairing on (plant-wide) modelling of anaerobic digestion processes in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs). Using the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) as a case study, this paper presents...... for ionic strength via the Davies approach to consider chemical activities instead of molar concentrations. Also, a speciation sub-routine based on a multi-dimensional Newton-Raphson iteration method accounts for the formation of some of the ion pairs playing an important role in wastewater treatment...

  5. Structured Linear Parameter Varying Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adegas, Fabiano Daher; Sloth, Christoffer; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    High performance and reliability are required for wind turbines to be competitive within the energy market. To capture their nonlinear behavior, wind turbines are often modeled using parameter-varying models. In this chapter, a framework for modelling and controller design of wind turbines is pre...... in the controller synthesis are solved by an iterative LMI-based algorithm. The resulting controllers can also be easily implemented in practice due to low data storage and simple math operations. The performance of the LPV controllers is assessed by nonlinear simulations results....

  6. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Philipp; Helic, Denis; Taraghi, Behnam; Strohmaier, Markus

    2014-01-01

    One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  7. Detecting memory and structure in human navigation patterns using Markov chain models of varying order.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Singer

    Full Text Available One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work.

  8. Effects of spatial and spectral frequencies on wide-field functional imaging (wifi) characterization of preclinical breast cancer models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moy, Austin; Kim, Jae G.; Lee, Eva Y. H. P.; Choi, Bernard

    2010-02-01

    A common strategy to study breast cancer is the use of the preclinical model. These models provide a physiologically relevant and controlled environment in which to study both response to novel treatments and the biology of the cancer. Preclinical models, including the spontaneous tumor model and mammary window chamber model, are very amenable to optical imaging and to this end, we have developed a wide-field functional imaging (WiFI) instrument that is perfectly suited to studying tumor metabolism in preclinical models. WiFI combines two optical imaging modalities, spatial frequency domain imaging (SFDI) and laser speckle imaging (LSI). Our current WiFI imaging protocol consists of multispectral imaging in the near infrared (650-980 nm) spectrum, over a wide (7 cm x 5 cm) field of view. Using SFDI, the spatially-resolved reflectance of sinusoidal patterns projected onto the tissue is assessed, and optical properties of the tissue are determined, which are then used to extract tissue chromophore concentrations in the form of oxy-, deoxy-, and total hemoglobin concentrations, and percentage of lipid and water. In the current study, we employ Monte Carlo simulations of SFDI light propagation in order to characterize the penetration depth of light in both the spontaneous tumor model and mammary window chamber model. Preliminary results suggest that different spatial frequency and wavelength combinations have different penetration depths, suggesting the potential depth sectioning capability of the SFDI component of WiFI.

  9. Quantum capacity under adversarial quantum noise: arbitrarily varying quantum channels

    OpenAIRE

    Ahlswede, Rudolf; Bjelakovic, Igor; Boche, Holger; Noetzel, Janis

    2010-01-01

    We investigate entanglement transmission over an unknown channel in the presence of a third party (called the adversary), which is enabled to choose the channel from a given set of memoryless but non-stationary channels without informing the legitimate sender and receiver about the particular choice that he made. This channel model is called arbitrarily varying quantum channel (AVQC). We derive a quantum version of Ahlswede's dichotomy for classical arbitrarily varying channels. This includes...

  10. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-01-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. PMID:25281847

  11. A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

    2016-05-01

    Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  12. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  13. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  14. Local Genealogies in a Linear Mixed Model for Genome-wide Association Mapping in Complex Pedigreed Populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sahana, Goutam; Mailund, Thomas; Lund, Mogens Sandø

    2011-01-01

    be extended to incorporate other effects in a straightforward and rigorous fashion. Here, we present a complementary approach, called ‘GENMIX (genealogy based mixed model)’ which combines advantages from two powerful GWAS methods: genealogy-based haplotype grouping and MMA. Subjects and Methods: We validated......Introduction: The state-of-the-art for dealing with multiple levels of relationship among the samples in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is unified mixed model analysis (MMA). This approach is very flexible, can be applied to both family-based and population-based samples, and can...

  15. World-wide environmental problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlers, H.C.

    1975-01-01

    Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

  16. Modelling plastic deformation of metals over a wide range of strain rates using irreversible thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Mingxin; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, Pedro E J; Zwaag, Sybrand van der; Bouaziz, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Based on the theory of irreversible thermodynamics, the present work proposes a dislocation-based model to describe the plastic deformation of FCC metals over wide ranges of strain rates. The stress-strain behaviour and the evolution of the average dislocation density are derived. It is found that there is a transitional strain rate (∼ 10 4 s -1 ) over which the phonon drag effects appear, resulting in a significant increase in the flow stress and the average dislocation density. The model is applied to pure Cu deformed at room temperature and at strain rates ranging from 10 -5 to 10 6 s -1 showing good agreement with experimental results.

  17. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  18. Widely distributed SEP events and pseudostreamers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasenco, O.; Panasenco, A.; Velli, M.

    2017-12-01

    Our analysis of the pseudostreamer magnetic topology reveals new interesting implications for understanding SEP acceleration in CMEs. The possible reasons for the wide distribution of some SEP events can be the presence of pseudostreamers in the vicinity of the SEP source region which creates conditions for the existence of strong longitudinal spread of energetic particles as well as an anomalous longitudinal solar wind magnetic field component. We reconstructed the 3D magnetic configurations of pseudostreamers with a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, which uses as a lower boundary condition the magnetic field derived from an evolving surface-flux transport model. In order to estimate the possible magnetic connections between the spacecraft and the SEP source region, we used the Parker spiral, ENLIL and PFSS models. We found that in cases of the wide SEP distributions a specific configuration of magnetic field appears to exist at low solar latitudes all the way around the sun, we named this phenomenon a pseudostreamers belt. It appears that the presence of the well developed pseudostreamer or, rather multiple pseudostreamers, organized into the pseudostreamer belt can be considered as a very favorable condition for wide SEP events.

  19. Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya

    2017-01-01

    Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing rates for use in air quality and chemical transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Alapaty, Kiran; Sakradzija, Mirjana

    2008-06-01

    Asymmetrical convective non-local scheme (CON) with varying upward mixing rates is developed for simulation of vertical turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer in air quality and chemical transport models. The upward mixing rate form the surface layer is parameterized using the sensible heat flux and the friction and convective velocities. Upward mixing rates varying with height are scaled with an amount of turbulent kinetic energy in layer, while the downward mixing rates are derived from mass conservation. This scheme provides a less rapid mass transport out of surface layer into other layers than other asymmetrical convective mixing schemes. In this paper, we studied the performance of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer and its impact on the concentration of pollutants calculated with chemical and air-quality models. This scheme was additionally compared versus a local eddy-diffusivity scheme (KSC). Simulated concentrations of NO(2) and the nitrate wet deposition by the CON scheme are closer to the observations when compared to those obtained from using the KSC scheme. Concentrations calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme (of the order of 15-20%). Nitrate wet deposition calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme. To examine the performance of the scheme, simulated and measured concentrations of a pollutant (NO(2)) and nitrate wet deposition was compared for the year 2002. The comparison was made for the whole domain used in simulations performed by the chemical European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Unified model (version UNI-ACID, rv2.0) where schemes were incorporated.

  1. Frequency variations of gravity waves interacting with a time-varying tide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, C.M.; Zhang, S.D.; Yi, F.; Huang, K.M.; Gan, Q.; Gong, Y. [Wuhan Univ., Hubei (China). School of Electronic Information; Ministry of Education, Wuhan, Hubei (China). Key Lab. of Geospace Environment and Geodesy; State Observatory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhang, Y.H. [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). College of Hydrometeorolgy

    2013-11-01

    Using a nonlinear, 2-D time-dependent numerical model, we simulate the propagation of gravity waves (GWs) in a time-varying tide. Our simulations show that when aGW packet propagates in a time-varying tidal-wind environment, not only its intrinsic frequency but also its ground-based frequency would change significantly. The tidal horizontal-wind acceleration dominates the GW frequency variation. Positive (negative) accelerations induce frequency increases (decreases) with time. More interestingly, tidal-wind acceleration near the critical layers always causes the GW frequency to increase, which may partially explain the observations that high-frequency GW components are more dominant in the middle and upper atmosphere than in the lower atmosphere. The combination of the increased ground-based frequency of propagating GWs in a time-varying tidal-wind field and the transient nature of the critical layer induced by a time-varying tidal zonal wind creates favorable conditions for GWs to penetrate their originally expected critical layers. Consequently, GWs have an impact on the background atmosphere at much higher altitudes than expected, which indicates that the dynamical effects of tidal-GW interactions are more complicated than usually taken into account by GW parameterizations in global models.

  2. A wide-range model of two-group gross sections in the dynamics code HEXTRAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaloinen, E.; Peltonen, J.

    2002-01-01

    In dynamic analyses the thermal hydraulic conditions within the reactor core may have a large variation, which sets a special requirement on the modeling of cross sections. The standard model in the dynamics code HEXTRAN is the same as in the static design code HEXBU-3D/MODS. It is based on a linear and second order fitting of two-group cross sections on fuel and moderator temperature, moderator density and boron density. A new, wide-range model of cross sections developed in Fortum Nuclear Services for HEXBU-3D/MOD6 has been included as an option into HEXTRAN. In this model the nodal cross sections are constructed from seven state variables in a polynomial of more than 40 terms. Coefficients of the polynomial are created by a least squares fitting to the results of a large number of fuel assembly calculations. Depending on the choice of state variables for the spectrum calculations, the new cross section model is capable to cover local conditions from cold zero power to boiling at full power. The 5. dynamic benchmark problem of AER is analyzed with the new option and results are compared to calculations with the standard model of cross sections in HEXTRAN (Authors)

  3. Modeling Sluggishness in Binaural Unmasking of Speech for Maskers With Time-Varying Interaural Phase Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauth, Christopher F; Brand, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In studies investigating binaural processing in human listeners, relatively long and task-dependent time constants of a binaural window ranging from 10 ms to 250 ms have been observed. Such time constants are often thought to reflect "binaural sluggishness." In this study, the effect of binaural sluggishness on binaural unmasking of speech in stationary speech-shaped noise is investigated in 10 listeners with normal hearing. In order to design a masking signal with temporally varying binaural cues, the interaural phase difference of the noise was modulated sinusoidally with frequencies ranging from 0.25 Hz to 64 Hz. The lowest, that is the best, speech reception thresholds (SRTs) were observed for the lowest modulation frequency. SRTs increased with increasing modulation frequency up to 4 Hz. For higher modulation frequencies, SRTs remained constant in the range of 1 dB to 1.5 dB below the SRT determined in the diotic situation. The outcome of the experiment was simulated using a short-term binaural speech intelligibility model, which combines an equalization-cancellation (EC) model with the speech intelligibility index. This model segments the incoming signal into 23.2-ms time frames in order to predict release from masking in modulated noises. In order to predict the results from this study, the model required a further time constant applied to the EC mechanism representing binaural sluggishness. The best agreement with perceptual data was achieved using a temporal window of 200 ms in the EC mechanism.

  4. Inferring time‐varying recharge from inverse analysis of long‐term water levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, R.T.; Ferré, T.P.A.; Leake, S.A.

    2004-01-01

    Water levels in aquifers typically vary in response to time‐varying rates of recharge, suggesting the possibility of inferring time‐varying recharge rates on the basis of long‐term water level records. Presumably, in the southwestern United States (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, southern California, and southern Utah), rates of mountain front recharge to alluvial aquifers depend on variations in precipitation rates due to known climate cycles such as the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This investigation examined the inverse application of a one‐dimensional analytical model for periodic flow described by Lloyd R. Townley in 1995 to estimate periodic recharge variations on the basis of variations in long‐term water level records using southwest aquifers as the case study. Time‐varying water level records at various locations along the flow line were obtained by simulation of forward models of synthetic basins with applied sinusoidal recharge of either a single period or composite of multiple periods of length similar to known climate cycles. Periodic water level components, reconstructed using singular spectrum analysis (SSA), were used to calibrate the analytical model to estimate each recharge component. The results demonstrated that periodic recharge estimates were most accurate in basins with nearly uniform transmissivity and the accuracy of the recharge estimates depends on monitoring well location. A case study of the San Pedro Basin, Arizona, is presented as an example of calibrating the analytical model to real data.

  5. Evolution of perturbation in charge-varying dusty plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popel, S.I.; Golub, A.P.; Losseva, T.V.; Bingham, R.; Benkadda, S.

    2001-01-01

    The nonstationary problem of the evolution of perturbation and its transformation into nonlinear wave structure in dusty plasmas is considered. For this purpose two one-dimensional models based on a set of fluid equations, Poisson's equation, and a charging equation for dust are developed. The first (simplified) model corresponds to the case [Popel et al., Phys. Plasmas 3, 4313 (1996)] when exact steady-state shock wave solutions can exist. This simplified model includes variable-charged dust grains, Boltzmann electrons, and inertial ions. The second (ionization source) model takes into account the variation of the ion density and the ion momentum dissipation due to dust particle charging as well as the source of plasma particles due to ionization process. The computational method for solving the set of equations which describe the evolution in time of a nonlinear structure in a charge-varying dusty plasma is developed. The case of the evolution of an intensive initial nonmoving region with a constant enhanced ion density is investigated on the basis of these two models. The consideration within the ionization source model is performed for the data of the laboratory experiment [Luo et al., Phys. Plasmas 6, 3455 (1999)]. It is shown that the ionization source model allows one to obtain shock structures as a result of evolution of an initial perturbation and to explain the experimental value of the width of the shock wave front. Comparison of the numerical data obtained on the basis of the ionization source model and the simplified model shows that the main characteristic features of the shock structure are the same for both models. Nevertheless, the ionization source model is much more sensitive to the form of the initial perturbation than the simplified model. The solution of the problem of the evolution of perturbation and its transformation into shock wave in charge-varying dusty plasmas opens up possibilities for description of the real phenomena like supernova

  6. Application of a Statistical Linear Time-Varying System Model of High Grazing Angle Sea Clutter for Computing Interference Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-08

    STATISTICAL LINEAR TIME-VARYING SYSTEM MODEL OF HIGH GRAZING ANGLE SEA CLUTTER FOR COMPUTING INTERFERENCE POWER 1. INTRODUCTION Statistical linear time...beam. We can approximate one of the sinc factors using the Dirichlet kernel to facilitate computation of the integral in (6) as follows: ∣∣∣∣sinc(WB...plotted in Figure 4. The resultant autocorrelation can then be found by substituting (18) into (28). The Python code used to generate Figures 1-4 is found

  7. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire

    2010-12-01

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q eq concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q eq approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q eq values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of √10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q eq frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are sorption coefficients and flow rates. For both

  8. Handling Interfaces and Time-varying Properties in Radionuclide Transport Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, Peter; Watson, Claire (Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2010-12-15

    This report documents studies undertaken by Quintessa during 2010 in preparation for the SR-Site review that will be initiated by SSM in 2011. The studies relate to consequence analysis calculations, that is to the calculation of radionuclide release and transport if a canister is breached. A sister report documents modelling work undertaken to investigate the coupled processes relevant to copper corrosion and buffer erosion. The Q{sub eq} concept is an important part of SKB's current methodology for radionuclide transport using one-dimensional transport modelling; it is used in particular to model transport at the buffer/fracture interface. Quintessa's QPAC code has been used to investigate the Q{sub eq} approach and to explore the importance of heterogeneity in the fracture and spalling on the deposition hole surface. The key conclusions are that: - The basic approach to calculating Q{sub eq} values is sound and can be reproduced in QPAC. - The fracture resistance dominates over the diffusive resistance in the buffer except for the highest velocity cases. - Heterogeneity in the fracture, in terms of uncorrelated random variations in the fracture aperture, tends to reduce releases, so the use of a constant average aperture approach is conservative. - Narrow channels could lead to the same release as larger fractures with the same pore velocity, so a channel enhancement factor of sq root10 should be considered. - A spalling zone that increases the area of contact between flowing water and the buffer has the potential to increase the release significantly and changes the functional dependence of Q{sub eq}frac on the flowing velocity. Quintessa's AMBER software has previously been used to reproduce SKB's one-dimensional transport calculations and AMBER allows the use of time varying properties. This capability has been used to investigate the effects of glacial episodes on radionuclide transport. The main parameters that could be affected are

  9. Review of nitrogen fate models applicable to forest landscapes in the Southern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. M. Amatya; C. G. Rossi; A. Saleh; Z. Dai; M. A. Youssef; R. G. Williams; D. D. Bosch; G. M. Chescheir; G. Sun; R. W. Skaggs; C. C. Trettin; E. D. Vance; J. E. Nettles; S. Tian

    2013-01-01

    Assessing the environmental impacts of fertilizer nitrogen (N) used to increase productivity in managed forests is complex due to a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affecting its forms and movement. Models developed to predict fertilizer N fate (e.g., cycling processes) and water quality impacts vary widely in their design, scope, and potential application. We...

  10. Diagnosis of ulcerative colitis before onset of inflammation by multivariate modeling of genome-wide gene expression data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørgen; Gerds, Thomas A; Seidelin, Jakob B

    2009-01-01

    Background: Endoscopically obtained mucosal biopsies play an important role in the differential diagnosis between ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), but in some cases where neither macroscopic nor microscopic signs of inflammation are present the biopsies provide only inconclusive...... biopsies from 78 patients were included. A diagnostic model was derived with the random forest method based on 71 biopsies from 60 patients. The model-internal out-of-bag performance measure yielded perfect classification. Furthermore, the model was validated in independent 18 noninflamed biopsies from 18...... of random forest modeling of genome-wide gene expression data for distinguishing quiescent and active UC colonic mucosa versus control and CD colonic mucosa.(Inflamm Bowel Dis 2009)....

  11. Estimation of time-varying reactivity by the H∞ optimal linear filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo; Shimazaki, Junya; Watanabe, Koiti

    1995-01-01

    The problem of estimating the time-varying net reactivity from flux measurements is solved for a point reactor kinetics model using a linear filtering technique in an H ∞ settings. In order to sue this technique, an appropriate dynamical model of the reactivity is constructed that can be embedded into the reactor model as one of its variables. A filter, which minimizes the H ∞ norm of the estimation error power spectrum, operates on neutron density measurements corrupted by noise and provides an estimate of the dynamic net reactivity. Computer simulations are performed to reveal the basic characteristics of the H ∞ optimal filter. The results of the simulation indicate that the filter can be used to determine the time-varying reactivity from neutron density measurements that have been corrupted by noise

  12. Steady shear viscosity of stirred yoghurts with varying ropiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Marle, M.E.; van Marle, M.E.; van den Ende, Henricus T.M.; de Kruif, C.G.; de Kruif, C.G.; Mellema, J.

    1999-01-01

    Stirred yogurt was viewed as a concentrated dispersion of aggregates consisting of protein particles. The steady-shear behavior of three types of stirred yogurt with varying ropiness was investigated experimentally. To describe the shear-dependent viscosity, a microrheological model was used which

  13. A Skew-t space-varying regression model for the spectral analysis of resting state brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Salimah; Sun, Wenqi; Nathoo, Farouk S; Babul, Arif; Moiseev, Alexader; Beg, Mirza Faisal; Virji-Babul, Naznin

    2013-08-01

    It is known that in many neurological disorders such as Down syndrome, main brain rhythms shift their frequencies slightly, and characterizing the spatial distribution of these shifts is of interest. This article reports on the development of a Skew-t mixed model for the spatial analysis of resting state brain activity in healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome. Time series of oscillatory brain activity are recorded using magnetoencephalography, and spectral summaries are examined at multiple sensor locations across the scalp. We focus on the mean frequency of the power spectral density, and use space-varying regression to examine associations with age, gender and Down syndrome across several scalp regions. Spatial smoothing priors are incorporated based on a multivariate Markov random field, and the markedly non-Gaussian nature of the spectral response variable is accommodated by the use of a Skew-t distribution. A range of models representing different assumptions on the association structure and response distribution are examined, and we conduct model selection using the deviance information criterion. (1) Our analysis suggests region-specific differences between healthy controls and individuals with Down syndrome, particularly in the left and right temporal regions, and produces smoothed maps indicating the scalp topography of the estimated differences.

  14. Sri Lankan FRAX model and country-specific intervention thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekamwasam, Sarath

    2013-01-01

    There is a wide variation in fracture probabilities estimated by Asian FRAX models, although the outputs of South Asian models are concordant. Clinicians can choose either fixed or age-specific intervention thresholds when making treatment decisions in postmenopausal women. Cost-effectiveness of such approach, however, needs to be addressed. This study examined suitable fracture probability intervention thresholds (ITs) for Sri Lanka, based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model. Fracture probabilities were estimated using all Asian FRAX models for a postmenopausal woman of BMI 25 kg/m² and has no clinical risk factors apart from a fragility fracture, and they were compared. Age-specific ITs were estimated based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model using the method followed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group in the UK. Using the age-specific ITs as the reference standard, suitable fixed ITs were also estimated. Fracture probabilities estimated by different Asian FRAX models varied widely. Japanese and Taiwan models showed higher fracture probabilities while Chinese, Philippine, and Indonesian models gave lower fracture probabilities. Output of remaining FRAX models were generally similar. Age-specific ITs of major osteoporotic fracture probabilities (MOFP) based on the Sri Lankan FRAX model varied from 2.6 to 18% between 50 and 90 years. ITs of hip fracture probabilities (HFP) varied from 0.4 to 6.5% between 50 and 90 years. In finding fixed ITs, MOFP of 11% and HFP of 3.5% gave the lowest misclassification and highest agreement. Sri Lankan FRAX model behaves similar to other Asian FRAX models such as Indian, Singapore-Indian, Thai, and South Korean. Clinicians may use either the fixed or age-specific ITs in making therapeutic decisions in postmenopausal women. The economical aspects of such decisions, however, need to be considered.

  15. Global exponential stability of uncertain fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model representation is extended to the stability analysis for uncertain Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays using linear matrix inequality (LMI) theory. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by LMI optimization algorithms to guarantee the exponential stability of uncertain BAM neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by TS fuzzy models. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples.

  16. A Reconfigurable Series Resonant DC-DC Converter for Wide-Input and Wide-Output Voltages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shen, Yanfeng; Wang, Huai; Qin, Zian

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a dual-bridge based LC series resonant dc-dc converter. The input inverter unit incorporates two bridge structures, i.e., a full-bridge inverter and a half-bridge inverter. For the output rectifier, it can be a full-bridge rectifier or an asymmetric half-bridge rectifier....... Different from the conventional resonant converter, a fixed-frequency PWM control is employed which makes the optimization of magnetic components easier. The primary-side switches can achieve ZVS and the secondary-side diodes turn off with ZCS. In addition, the root-mean-square (RMS) values...... of the transformer currents do not significantly vary with respect to the voltage variation. Therefore, this converter can maintain high efficiency over a wide voltage range. The topology and operating principle are firstly described. Then the dc voltage gain and the RMS current characteristics are detailed. Finally...

  17. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  18. Microsatellites in varied arenas of research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K S Remya

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Microsatellites known as simple-sequence repeats (SSRs or short-tandem repeats (STRs, represent specific sequences of DNA consisting of tandemly repeated units of one to six nucleotides. The repetitive nature of microsatellites makes them particularly prone to grow or shrink in length and these changes can have both good and bad consequences for the organisms that possess them. They are responsible for various neurological diseases and hence the same cause is now utilized for the early detection of various diseases, such as, Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder, Congenital generalized Hypertrichosis, Asthma, and Bronchial Hyperresponsiveness. These agents are widely used for forensic identification and relatedness testing, and are predominant genetic markers in this area of application. The application of microsatellites is an extending web and covers the varied scenarios of science, such as, conservation biology, plant genetics, and population studies. At present, researches are progressing round the globe to extend the use of these genetic repeaters to unmask the hidden genetic secrets behind the creation of the world.

  19. Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, H.; Klaassen, G.

    2000-01-01

    In March 1997 the European Commission adopted a proposal that increases existing minimum levels of taxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% and introduces excises for other energy products. This paper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the proposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, and E3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will have positive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenues are used to reduce social security contributions paid by employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP and employment are expected to be higher and CO2 emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positive EU-wide effects can be observed in practically all member states. The sector impacts are modest, with the energy sector expected to face the most negative impacts. Differences between model results are due to the model type (general equilibrium or macro-econometric), the EU countries covered and the way tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptions to obtain the 'double dividend' are the modelling of the labour market and the impacts on EU external trade. The sensitivity of the results for the use of tax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases is assessed. 21 refs

  20. Model-driven requirements engineering (MDRE) for real-time ultra-wide instantaneous bandwidth signal simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Daniel Y.; Rowe, Neil C.

    2013-05-01

    While conducting a cutting-edge research in a specific domain, we realize that (1) requirements clarity and correctness are crucial to our success [1], (2) hardware is hard to change, most work is in software requirements development, coding and testing [2], (3) requirements are constantly changing, so that configurability, reusability, scalability, adaptability, modularity and testability are important non-functional attributes [3], (4) cross-domain knowledge is necessary for complex systems [4], and (5) if our research is successful, the results could be applied to other domains with similar problems. In this paper, we propose to use model-driven requirements engineering (MDRE) to model and guide our requirements/development, since models are easy to understand, execute, and modify. The domain for our research is Electronic Warfare (EW) real-time ultra-wide instantaneous bandwidth (IBW1) signal simulation. The proposed four MDRE models are (1) Switch-and-Filter architecture, (2) multiple parallel data bit streams alignment, (3) post-ADC and pre-DAC bits re-mapping, and (4) Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) filter bank. This research is unique since the instantaneous bandwidth we are dealing with is in gigahertz range instead of conventional megahertz.

  1. VariVis: a visualisation toolkit for variation databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Timothy D

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With the completion of the Human Genome Project and recent advancements in mutation detection technologies, the volume of data available on genetic variations has risen considerably. These data are stored in online variation databases and provide important clues to the cause of diseases and potential side effects or resistance to drugs. However, the data presentation techniques employed by most of these databases make them difficult to use and understand. Results Here we present a visualisation toolkit that can be employed by online variation databases to generate graphical models of gene sequence with corresponding variations and their consequences. The VariVis software package can run on any web server capable of executing Perl CGI scripts and can interface with numerous Database Management Systems and "flat-file" data files. VariVis produces two easily understandable graphical depictions of any gene sequence and matches these with variant data. While developed with the goal of improving the utility of human variation databases, the VariVis package can be used in any variation database to enhance utilisation of, and access to, critical information.

  2. Brown Dwarf Variability: What's Varying and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marley, Mark Scott

    2014-01-01

    Surveys by ground based telescopes, HST, and Spitzer have revealed that brown dwarfs of most spectral classes exhibit variability. The spectral and temporal signatures of the variability are complex and apparently defy simplistic classification which complicates efforts to model the changes. Important questions include understanding if clearings are forming in an otherwise uniform cloud deck or if thermal perturbations, perhaps associated with breaking gravity waves, are responsible. If clouds are responsible how long does it take for the atmospheric thermal profile to relax from a hot cloudy to a cooler cloudless state? If thermal perturbations are responsible then what atmospheric layers are varying? How do the observed variability timescales compare to atmospheric radiative, chemical, and dynamical timescales? I will address such questions by presenting modeling results for time-varying partly cloudy atmospheres and explore the importance of various atmospheric processes over the relevant timescales for brown dwarfs of a range of effective temperatures. Regardless of the origin of the observed variability, the complexity seen in the atmospheres of the field dwarfs hints at the variability that we may encounter in the next few years in directly imaged young Jupiters. Thus understanding the nature of variability in the field dwarfs, including sensitivity to gravity and metallicity, is of particular importance for exoplanet characterization.

  3. Constitutive modeling of polycarbonate over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haitao; Zhou, Huamin; Huang, Zhigao; Zhang, Yun; Zhao, Xiaoxuan

    2017-02-01

    The mechanical behavior of polycarbonate was experimentally investigated over a wide range of strain rates (10^{-4} to 5× 103 s^{-1}) and temperatures (293 to 353 K). Compression tests under these conditions were performed using a SHIMADZU universal testing machine and a split Hopkinson pressure bar. Falling weight impact testing was carried out on an Instron Dynatup 9200 drop tower system. The rate- and temperature-dependent deformation behavior of polycarbonate was discussed in detail. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) tests were utilized to observe the glass (α ) transition and the secondary (β ) transition of polycarbonate. The DMA results indicate that the α and β transitions have a dramatic influence on the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The decompose/shift/reconstruct (DSR) method was utilized to decompose the storage modulus into the α and β components and extrapolate the entire modulus, the α-component modulus and the β-component modulus. Based on three previous models, namely, Mulliken-Boyce, G'Sell-Jonas and DSGZ, an adiabatic model is proposed to predict the mechanical behavior of polycarbonate. The model considers the contributions of both the α and β transitions to the mechanical behavior, and it has been implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit through a user material subroutine VUMAT. The model predictions are proven to essentially coincide with the experimental results during compression testing and falling weight impact testing.

  4. Varying prior information in Bayesian inversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Bayes' rule is used to combine likelihood and prior probability distributions. The former represents knowledge derived from new data, the latter represents pre-existing knowledge; the Bayesian combination is the so-called posterior distribution, representing the resultant new state of knowledge. While varying the likelihood due to differing data observations is common, there are also situations where the prior distribution must be changed or replaced repeatedly. For example, in mixture density neural network (MDN) inversion, using current methods the neural network employed for inversion needs to be retrained every time prior information changes. We develop a method of prior replacement to vary the prior without re-training the network. Thus the efficiency of MDN inversions can be increased, typically by orders of magnitude when applied to geophysical problems. We demonstrate this for the inversion of seismic attributes in a synthetic subsurface geological reservoir model. We also present results which suggest that prior replacement can be used to control the statistical properties (such as variance) of the final estimate of the posterior in more general (e.g., Monte Carlo based) inverse problem solutions. (paper)

  5. MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF WEAR CHARACTER FAILURE IN AIRCRAFT OPERATION

    OpenAIRE

    Радько, Олег Віталійович; Молдован, Володимир Дмитрович

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the mathematical model of failures associated with wear during aircraft exploitationis developed. Тhe calculations of the distribution function, distribution density and failurerate gamma distribution at low coefficients of variation and the relatively low value of averagewear rate for the current time, which varies quite widely. The results coincide well with thephysical concepts and can be used to build different models of aircraft. Gamma distribution is apretty good model for...

  6. Reduced dielectric response in spatially varying electric fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jesper Schmidt

    2015-01-01

    relations between the flux and the gradient of the polarization. Comparison between the theory and molecular dynamics simulations confirms this effect. The effect is significant for small length scale electric field variations and the inclusion of the flux is thus important in nanoscale modeling......In this paper, the dynamical equation for polarization is derived. From this the dielectric response to a spatially varying electric field is analyzed showing a reduced response due to flux of polarization in the material. This flux is modeled as a diffusive process through linear constitutive...

  7. Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V; Sánchez, Brisa N

    2016-03-15

    It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment-health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001-2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store-BMIz associations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Wide area stability analysis and control of interconnected power systems with HVDC and FACTS devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yong

    2012-11-01

    In order to damp low-frequency oscillations and improve the overall stability of large-scale interconnected power systems, this book investigates the wide-area stability analysis and control methods from different perspectives. The flexible and fast control capability of high-voltage (FACTS) is investigated in detail to implement a wide-area measurement based damping control. A sequential and global mixed optimization method is proposed to simultaneously optimize local and wide area damping controllers. A wide-area robust coordination method is presented to coordinate multiple wide-area damping controllers (WADC). A delay-dependent robust design method is also proposed to handle time-varying delays commonly existing in wide-area signal communication. A closed-loop hardware experiment is used to validate the damping performance. The research activities of this book include power system stability analysis and control, wide-area damping control as well as HVDC and FACTS technologies.

  9. Surrogate runner model for draft tube losses computation within a wide range of operating points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susan-Resiga, R; Ciocan, T; Muntean, S; De Colombel, T; Leroy, P

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a quasi two-dimensional (Q2D) methodology for assessing the swirling flow exiting the runner of hydraulic turbines at arbitrary operating points, within a wide operating range. The Q2D model does not need actual runner computations, and as a result it represents a surrogate runner model for a-priori assessment of the swirling flow ingested by the draft tube. The axial, radial and circumferential velocity components are computed on a conical section located immediately downstream the runner blades trailing edge, then used as inlet conditions for regular draft tube computations. The main advantage of our model is that it allows the determination of the draft tube losses within the intended turbine operating range in the early design stages of a new or refurbished runner, thus providing a robust and systematic methodology to meet the optimal requirements for the flow at the runner outlet

  10. An improved Ångström-type model for estimating solar radiation over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunshine- and temperature-based empirical models are widely used for solar radiation estimation over the world, but the coefficients of the models are mostly site-dependent. The coefficients are expected to vary more under complex terrain conditions than under flat terrains. To test this hypothesis,...

  11. Spherical collapse model in time varying vacuum cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis; Sola, Joan

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the virialization of cosmic structures in the framework of flat Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker cosmological models, in which the vacuum energy density evolves with time. In particular, our analysis focuses on the study of spherical matter perturbations, as they decouple from the background expansion, 'turn around', and finally collapse. We generalize the spherical collapse model in the case when the vacuum energy is a running function of the Hubble rate, Λ=Λ(H). A particularly well-motivated model of this type is the so-called quantum field vacuum, in which Λ(H) is a quadratic function, Λ(H)=n 0 +n 2 H 2 , with n 0 ≠0. This model was previously studied by our team using the latest high quality cosmological data to constrain its free parameters, as well as the predicted cluster formation rate. It turns out that the corresponding Hubble expansion history resembles that of the traditional ΛCDM cosmology. We use this Λ(t)CDM framework to illustrate the fact that the properties of the spherical collapse model (virial density, collapse factor, etc.) depend on the choice of the considered vacuum energy (homogeneous or clustered). In particular, if the distribution of the vacuum energy is clustered, then, under specific conditions, we can produce more concentrated structures with respect to the homogeneous vacuum energy case.

  12. Varying coefficient function models to explore interactions between maternal nutritional status and prenatal methylmercury toxicity in the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Miranda L; Huang, Li-Shan; Cox, Christopher; Strain, J J; Myers, Gary J; Bonham, Maxine P; Shamlaye, Conrad F; Stokes-Riner, Abbie; Wallace, Julie M W; Duffy, Emeir M; Clarkson, Thomas W; Davidson, Philip W

    2011-01-01

    Maternal consumption of fish during the gestational period exposes the fetus to both nutrients, especially the long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs), believed to be beneficial for fetal brain development, as well as to the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). We recently reported that nutrients present in fish may modify MeHg neurotoxicity. Understanding the apparent interaction of MeHg exposure and nutrients present in fish is complicated by the limitations of modeling methods. In this study we fit varying coefficient function models to data from the Seychelles Child Development Nutrition Study (SCDNS) cohort to assess the association of dietary nutrients and children's development. This cohort of mother-child pairs in the Republic of Seychelles had fish consumption averaging 9 meals per week. Maternal nutritional status was assessed for five different nutritional components known to be present in fish (n-3 LCPUFA, n-6 LCPUFA, iron status, iodine status, and choline) and associated with children's neurological development. We also included prenatal MeHg exposure (measured in maternal hair). We examined two child neurodevelopmental outcomes (Bayley Scales Infant Development-II (BSID-II) Mental Developmental Index (MDI) and Psychomotor Developmental Index (PDI)), each administered at 9 and at 30 months. The varying coefficient models allow the possible interactions between each nutritional component and MeHg to be modeled as a smoothly varying function of MeHg as an effect modifier. Iron, iodine, choline, and n-6 LCPUFA had little or no observable modulation at different MeHg exposures. In contrast the n-3 LCPUFA docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) had beneficial effects on the BSID-II PDI that were reduced or absent at higher MeHg exposures. This study presents a useful modeling method that can be brought to bear on questions involving interactions between covariates, and illustrates the continuing importance of viewing fish consumption during pregnancy as a case

  13. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi

    2017-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species and cultiv......Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species...... and cultivars, N fertilizer application, water supply, sowing dates, soil types, temperature environments, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and included open top chamber and Free-Air-CO2-Enrichment (FACE) experiments. Tuber yields were generally well simulated with the SUBSTOR-potato model across a wide...

  14. Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. I. Evolving Hilbert spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Höhn, Philipp A.

    2014-01-01

    A temporally varying discretization often features in discrete gravitational systems and appears in lattice field theory models subject to a coarse graining or refining dynamics. To better understand such discretization changing dynamics in the quantum theory, an according formalism for constrained variational discrete systems is constructed. While this paper focuses on global evolution moves and, for simplicity, restricts to flat configuration spaces R N , a Paper II [P. A. Höhn, “Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. II. Local evolution moves,” J. Math. Phys., e-print http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:1401.7731 [gr-qc].] discusses local evolution moves. In order to link the covariant and canonical picture, the dynamics of the quantum states is generated by propagators which satisfy the canonical constraints and are constructed using the action and group averaging projectors. This projector formalism offers a systematic method for tracing and regularizing divergences in the resulting state sums. Non-trivial coarse graining evolution moves lead to non-unitary, and thus irreversible, projections of physical Hilbert spaces and Dirac observables such that these concepts become evolution move dependent on temporally varying discretizations. The formalism is illustrated in a toy model mimicking a “creation from nothing.” Subtleties arising when applying such a formalism to quantum gravity models are discussed

  15. Real time damage detection using recursive principal components and time varying auto-regressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M.; Bhowmik, B.; Hazra, B.; Pakrashi, V.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a novel baseline free approach for continuous online damage detection of multi degree of freedom vibrating structures using Recursive Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with Time Varying Auto-Regressive Modeling (TVAR) is proposed. In this method, the acceleration data is used to obtain recursive proper orthogonal components online using rank-one perturbation method, followed by TVAR modeling of the first transformed response, to detect the change in the dynamic behavior of the vibrating system from its pristine state to contiguous linear/non-linear-states that indicate damage. Most of the works available in the literature deal with algorithms that require windowing of the gathered data owing to their data-driven nature which renders them ineffective for online implementation. Algorithms focussed on mathematically consistent recursive techniques in a rigorous theoretical framework of structural damage detection is missing, which motivates the development of the present framework that is amenable for online implementation which could be utilized along with suite experimental and numerical investigations. The RPCA algorithm iterates the eigenvector and eigenvalue estimates for sample covariance matrices and new data point at each successive time instants, using the rank-one perturbation method. TVAR modeling on the principal component explaining maximum variance is utilized and the damage is identified by tracking the TVAR coefficients. This eliminates the need for offline post processing and facilitates online damage detection especially when applied to streaming data without requiring any baseline data. Numerical simulations performed on a 5-dof nonlinear system under white noise excitation and El Centro (also known as 1940 Imperial Valley earthquake) excitation, for different damage scenarios, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed algorithm. The method is further validated on results obtained from case studies involving

  16. A plant wide aqueous phase chemistry model describing pH variations and ion speciation/pairing in wastewater treatment process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, X.; Mbamba, C. Kazadi; Solon, K.

    cationic/anionic loads. In this way, the general applicability/flexibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated by implementing the aqueous phase chemistry module in some of the most frequently used WWTP process simulation models. Finally, it is shown how traditional wastewater modelling studies can......, require a major, but unavoidable, additional degree of complexity when representing cationic/anionic behaviour in Activated Sludge (AS)/Anaerobic Digestion (AD) systems (Ikumi et al., 2014). In this paper, a plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations plus ion speciation...... of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) in order to reduce the overall stiffness of the system, thereby enhancing simulation speed. Additionally, a multi-dimensional version of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to handle the existing multiple algebraic inter-dependencies (Solon et al., 2015...

  17. Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2016-02-01

    Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

  18. Endovascular treatment of wide-necked aneurysms using stents combined with electrolytic detachable coils in a canine model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jianmin; Zhang Xin; Zhou Xiaoping; Hong Bo; Xu Yi; Huang Qinghai; Zhang Long; She Jiagui; Zhao Rui

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To assess hemodynamics and histology of the aneurysms by treating experimental wide-necked aneurysms endovascularly with a combination of stents and electrolytic detachable coils. Methods: An experimental model was surgically constructed in the necks of six canines for simulating intracranial wide-necked aneurysms. Balloon-expandable metal stents were positioned across the aneurysms in bilateral carotid arteries of six canines with additional intraaneurysmal placement of detachable microcoils in only unilateral carotid artery of each canine. Sonography and angiography were performed in different stages and histologic examinations were achieved finally. Results: Stent placement was successful in all six canines. Aneurysms treated with only stents placement showed no significant thrombus formation with slow growing of neointima over the neck of the aneurysm. Thrombosis occurred in the aneurysms treated with stents and coils in a short time and neointima covered the neck of the aneurysms completely. Conclusions: Endovascular treatment of wide-necked aneurysms using stents combined with electrolytic detachable coils may prevent re-rupture of the aneurysms and promote neointima formation over the neck of the aneurysms. (authors)

  19. Towards a benchmark simulation model for plant-wide control strategy performance evaluation of WWTPs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, Ulf; Rosen, Christian; Alex, Jens

    2006-01-01

    The COST/IWA benchmark simulation model has been available for seven years. Its primary purpose has been to create a platform for control strategy benchmarking of activated sludge processes. The fact that the benchmark has resulted in more than 100 publications, not only in Europe but also...... worldwide, demonstrates the interest in such a tool within the research community In this paper, an extension of the benchmark simulation model no 1 (BSM1) is proposed. This extension aims at facilitating control strategy development and performance evaluation at a plant-wide level and, consequently...... the changes, the evaluation period has been extended to one year. A prolonged evaluation period allows for long-term control strategies to be assessed and enables the use of control handles that cannot be evaluated in a realistic fashion in the one-week BSM1 evaluation period. In the paper, the extended plant...

  20. Models of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leblond, H.; Mihalache, D.

    2013-01-01

    In the past years there was a huge interest in experimental and theoretical studies in the area of few-optical-cycle pulses and in the broader fast growing field of the so-called extreme nonlinear optics. This review concentrates on theoretical studies performed in the past decade concerning the description of few optical cycle solitons beyond the slowly varying envelope approximation (SVEA). Here we systematically use the powerful reductive expansion method (alias multiscale analysis) in order to derive simple integrable and nonintegrable evolution models describing both nonlinear wave propagation and interaction of ultrashort (femtosecond) pulses. To this aim we perform the multiple scale analysis on the Maxwell–Bloch equations and the corresponding Schrödinger–von Neumann equation for the density matrix of two-level atoms. We analyze in detail both long-wave and short-wave propagation models. The propagation of ultrashort few-optical-cycle solitons in quadratic and cubic nonlinear media are adequately described by generic integrable and nonintegrable nonlinear evolution equations such as the Korteweg–de Vries equation, the modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the complex modified Korteweg–de Vries equation, the sine–Gordon equation, the cubic generalized Kadomtsev–Petviashvili equation, and the two-dimensional sine–Gordon equation. Moreover, we consider the propagation of few-cycle optical solitons in both (1+1)- and (2+1)-dimensional physical settings. A generalized modified Korteweg–de Vries equation is introduced in order to describe robust few-optical-cycle dissipative solitons. We investigate in detail the existence and robustness of both linearly polarized and circularly polarized few-cycle solitons, that is, we also take into account the effect of the vectorial nature of the electric field. Some of these results concerning the systematic use of the reductive expansion method beyond the SVEA can be relatively easily extended to few

  1. Involvement of TRPM2 in a wide range of inflammatory and neuropathic pain mouse models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanako So

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests a role of transient receptor potential melastatin 2 (TRPM2 in immune and inflammatory responses. We previously reported that TRPM2 deficiency attenuated inflammatory and neuropathic pain in some pain mouse models, including formalin- or carrageenan-induced inflammatory pain, and peripheral nerve injury-induced neuropathic pain models, while it had no effect on the basal mechanical and thermal nociceptive sensitivities. In this study, we further explored the involvement of TRPM2 in various pain models using TRPM2-knockout mice. There were no differences in the chemonociceptive behaviors evoked by intraplantar injection of capsaicin or hydrogen peroxide between wildtype and TRPM2-knockout mice, while acetic acid-induced writhing behavior was significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. In the postoperative incisional pain model, no difference in mechanical allodynia was observed between the two genotypes. By contrast, mechanical allodynia in the monosodium iodoacetate-induced osteoarthritis pain model and the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis model were significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. Furthermore, mechanical allodynia in paclitaxel-induced peripheral neuropathy and streptozotocin-induced painful diabetic neuropathy models were significantly attenuated in TRPM2-knockout mice. Taken together, these results suggest that TRPM2 plays roles in a wide range of pathological pain models based on peripheral and central neuroinflammation, rather than physiological nociceptive pain.

  2. Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xue-Zhong; Li, Kai; Wang, Chuncheng

    2018-05-01

    By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general.

  3. Should Unemployment Insurance Vary with the Unemployment Rate? Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Kroft, Kory; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.

    2012-01-01

    We study how optimal unemployment insurance (UI) benefits vary over the business cycle by estimating how the moral hazard cost and the consumption smoothing benefit of UI vary with the unemployment rate. We find that the moral hazard cost is procyclical, greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low. By contrast, our evidence suggests that the consumption smoothing benefit of UI is acyclical. Using these estimates to calibrate our job search model, we find that a one standard deviation...

  4. Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

  5. Robustness analysis of the Zhang neural network for online time-varying quadratic optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yunong; Ruan Gongqin; Li Kene; Yang Yiwen

    2010-01-01

    A general type of recurrent neural network (termed as Zhang neural network, ZNN) has recently been proposed by Zhang et al for the online solution of time-varying quadratic-minimization (QM) and quadratic-programming (QP) problems. Global exponential convergence of the ZNN could be achieved theoretically in an ideal error-free situation. In this paper, with the normal differentiation and dynamics-implementation errors considered, the robustness properties of the ZNN model are investigated for solving these time-varying problems. In addition, linear activation functions and power-sigmoid activation functions could be applied to such a perturbed ZNN model. Both theoretical-analysis and computer-simulation results demonstrate the good ZNN robustness and superior performance for online time-varying QM and QP problem solving, especially when using power-sigmoid activation functions.

  6. A refined model for piezoelectric composite beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luschi, Luca; Pieri, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    This work presents and compares few simple one-dimensional models for the piezoelectric actuation and detection of beams. The 1D nature, which allows an easy embedding of the model in the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam equations, is obtained by adopting simplifying assumptions along directions of the cross-sectional plane. By changing such assumptions, different models can be built. Their validity is discussed and compared with results of FEM simulations for varying geometries. We show that commonly adopted models fail in a series of practical cases and propose a new model capable of accurately describing wide beams. (paper)

  7. FHSA-SED: Two-Locus Model Detection for Genome-Wide Association Study with Harmony Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouheng Tuo

    Full Text Available Two-locus model is a typical significant disease model to be identified in genome-wide association study (GWAS. Due to intensive computational burden and diversity of disease models, existing methods have drawbacks on low detection power, high computation cost, and preference for some types of disease models.In this study, two scoring functions (Bayesian network based K2-score and Gini-score are used for characterizing two SNP locus as a candidate model, the two criteria are adopted simultaneously for improving identification power and tackling the preference problem to disease models. Harmony search algorithm (HSA is improved for quickly finding the most likely candidate models among all two-locus models, in which a local search algorithm with two-dimensional tabu table is presented to avoid repeatedly evaluating some disease models that have strong marginal effect. Finally G-test statistic is used to further test the candidate models.We investigate our method named FHSA-SED on 82 simulated datasets and a real AMD dataset, and compare it with two typical methods (MACOED and CSE which have been developed recently based on swarm intelligent search algorithm. The results of simulation experiments indicate that our method outperforms the two compared algorithms in terms of detection power, computation time, evaluation times, sensitivity (TPR, specificity (SPC, positive predictive value (PPV and accuracy (ACC. Our method has identified two SNPs (rs3775652 and rs10511467 that may be also associated with disease in AMD dataset.

  8. Population models for time-varying pesticide exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Jong FMW de; Traas TP; LER; SEC

    2007-01-01

    A model has recently been developed at RIVM to predict the effects of variable exposure to pesticides of plant and animal populations in surface water. Before a pesticide is placed on the market, the environmental risk of the substance has to be assessed. This risk is estimated by comparing

  9. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for a model invasive ascidian Botryllus schlosseri.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yangchun; Li, Shiguo; Zhan, Aibin

    2018-04-01

    Invasive species cause huge damages to ecology, environment and economy globally. The comprehensive understanding of invasion mechanisms, particularly genetic bases of micro-evolutionary processes responsible for invasion success, is essential for reducing potential damages caused by invasive species. The golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri, has become a model species in invasion biology, mainly owing to its high invasiveness nature and small well-sequenced genome. However, the genome-wide genetic markers have not been well developed in this highly invasive species, thus limiting the comprehensive understanding of genetic mechanisms of invasion success. Using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) tag sequencing, here we developed a high-quality resource of 14,119 out of 158,821 SNPs for B. schlosseri. These SNPs were relatively evenly distributed at each chromosome. SNP annotations showed that the majority of SNPs (63.20%) were located at intergenic regions, and 21.51% and 14.58% were located at introns and exons, respectively. In addition, the potential use of the developed SNPs for population genomics studies was primarily assessed, such as the estimate of observed heterozygosity (H O ), expected heterozygosity (H E ), nucleotide diversity (π), Wright's inbreeding coefficient (F IS ) and effective population size (Ne). Our developed SNP resource would provide future studies the genome-wide genetic markers for genetic and genomic investigations, such as genetic bases of micro-evolutionary processes responsible for invasion success.

  10. Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

    2015-07-01

    We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

  11. A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philipp, Oliver; Hamann, Andrea; Servos, Jörg; Werner, Alexandra; Koch, Ina; Osiewacz, Heinz D

    2013-01-01

    Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression). A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i) present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii) suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii) present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

  12. A genome-wide longitudinal transcriptome analysis of the aging model Podospora anserina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Philipp

    Full Text Available Aging of biological systems is controlled by various processes which have a potential impact on gene expression. Here we report a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of the fungal aging model Podospora anserina. Total RNA of three individuals of defined age were pooled and analyzed by SuperSAGE (serial analysis of gene expression. A bioinformatics analysis identified different molecular pathways to be affected during aging. While the abundance of transcripts linked to ribosomes and to the proteasome quality control system were found to decrease during aging, those associated with autophagy increase, suggesting that autophagy may act as a compensatory quality control pathway. Transcript profiles associated with the energy metabolism including mitochondrial functions were identified to fluctuate during aging. Comparison of wild-type transcripts, which are continuously down-regulated during aging, with those down-regulated in the long-lived, copper-uptake mutant grisea, validated the relevance of age-related changes in cellular copper metabolism. Overall, we (i present a unique age-related data set of a longitudinal study of the experimental aging model P. anserina which represents a reference resource for future investigations in a variety of organisms, (ii suggest autophagy to be a key quality control pathway that becomes active once other pathways fail, and (iii present testable predictions for subsequent experimental investigations.

  13. Magnetohydrodynamic Stability of Streaming Jet Pervaded Internally by Varying Transverse Magnetic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfaisal A. Hasan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Magnetohydrodynamic stability of a streaming cylindrical model penetrated by varying transverse magnetic field has been discussed. The problem is formulated, the basic equations are solved, upon appropriate boundary conditions the eigenvalue relation is derived and discussed analytically, and the results are verified numerically. The capillary force is destabilizing in a small axisymmetric domain 0<<1 and stabilizing otherwise. The streaming has a strong destabilizing effect in all kinds of perturbation. The toroidal varying magnetic field interior the fluid has no direct effect at all on the stability of the fluid column. The axial exterior field has strong stabilizing effect on the model. The effect of all acting forces altogether could be identified via the numerical analysis of the stability theory of the present model.

  14. Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

    2012-01-01

    Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

  15. An Ontology of Quality Initiatives and a Model for Decentralized, Collaborative Quality Management on the (Semantic) World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This editorial provides a model of how quality initiatives concerned with health information on the World Wide Web may in the future interact with each other. This vision fits into the evolving "Semantic Web" architecture - ie, the prospective that the World Wide Web may evolve from a mess of unstructured, human-readable information sources into a global knowledge base with an additional layer providing richer and more meaningful relationships between resources. One first prerequisite for forming such a "Semantic Web" or "web of trust" among the players active in quality management of health information is that these initiatives make statements about themselves and about each other in a machine-processable language. I present a concrete model on how this collaboration could look, and provide some recommendations on what the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other policy makers in this framework could be. PMID:11772549

  16. Modal Vibration Control in Periodic Time-Varying Structures with Focus on Rotor Blade Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rene Hardam; Santos, Ilmar

    2004-01-01

    of active modal controllers. The main aim is to reduce vibrations in periodic time-varying structures. Special emphasis is given to vibration control of coupled bladed rotor systems. A state feedback modal control law is developed based on modal analysis in periodic time-varying structures. The first step...... in the procedure is a transformation of the model into a time-invariant modal form by applying the modal matrices, which are also periodic time-variant. Due to coupled rotor and blade motions complex vibration modes occur in the modal transformed state space model. This implies that the modal transformed model...

  17. Testing Quantum Models of Conjunction Fallacy on the World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; Arguëlles, Jonito Aerts; Beltran, Lester; Beltran, Lyneth; de Bianchi, Massimiliano Sassoli; Sozzo, Sandro; Veloz, Tomas

    2017-12-01

    The `conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches have been put forward: the first assumes that respondents use a two-step sequential reasoning and that the fallacy results from the presence of `question order effects'; the second assumes that respondents evaluate the cognitive situation as a whole and that the fallacy results from the `emergence of new meanings', as an `effect of overextension' in the conceptual conjunction. Thus, the question arises as to determine whether and to what extent conjunction fallacies would result from `order effects' or, instead, from `emergence effects'. To help clarify this situation, we propose to use the World Wide Web as an `information space' that can be interrogated both in a sequential and non-sequential way, to test these two quantum approaches. We find that `emergence effects', and not `order effects', should be considered the main cognitive mechanism producing the observed conjunction fallacies.

  18. Genome-wide Selective Sweeps in Natural Bacterial Populations Revealed by Time-series Metagenomics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, Leong-Keat; Bendall, Matthew L.; Malfatti, Stephanie; Schwientek, Patrick; Tremblay, Julien; Schackwitz, Wendy; Martin, Joel; Pati, Amrita; Bushnell, Brian; Foster, Brian; Kang, Dongwan; Tringe, Susannah G.; Bertilsson, Stefan; Moran, Mary Ann; Shade, Ashley; Newton, Ryan J.; Stevens, Sarah; McMahon, Katherine D.; Malmstrom, Rex R.

    2014-06-18

    Multiple evolutionary models have been proposed to explain the formation of genetically and ecologically distinct bacterial groups. Time-series metagenomics enables direct observation of evolutionary processes in natural populations, and if applied over a sufficiently long time frame, this approach could capture events such as gene-specific or genome-wide selective sweeps. Direct observations of either process could help resolve how distinct groups form in natural microbial assemblages. Here, from a three-year metagenomic study of a freshwater lake, we explore changes in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequencies and patterns of gene gain and loss in populations of Chlorobiaceae and Methylophilaceae. SNP analyses revealed substantial genetic heterogeneity within these populations, although the degree of heterogeneity varied considerably among closely related, co-occurring Methylophilaceae populations. SNP allele frequencies, as well as the relative abundance of certain genes, changed dramatically over time in each population. Interestingly, SNP diversity was purged at nearly every genome position in one of the Chlorobiaceae populations over the course of three years, while at the same time multiple genes either swept through or were swept from this population. These patterns were consistent with a genome-wide selective sweep, a process predicted by the ‘ecotype model’ of diversification, but not previously observed in natural populations.

  19. Optimization of a simplified automobile finite element model using time varying injury metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaewsky, James P; Danelson, Kerry A; Weaver, Caitlin M; Stitzel, Joel D

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, frontal crashes resulted in 55% of passenger car injuries with 10,277 fatalities and 866,000 injuries in the United States. To better understand frontal crash injury mechanisms, human body finite element models (FEMs) can be used to reconstruct Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases. A limitation of this method is the paucity of vehicle FEMs; therefore, we developed a functionally equivalent simplified vehicle model. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) data for our selected vehicle was from a frontal collision with Hybrid III (H3) Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) occupant. From NCAP test reports, the vehicle geometry was created and the H3 ATD was positioned. The material and component properties optimized using a variation study process were: steering column shear bolt fracture force and stroke resistance, seatbelt pretensioner force, frontal and knee bolster airbag stiffness, and belt friction through the D-ring. These parameters were varied using three successive Latin Hypercube Designs of Experiments with 130-200 simulations each. The H3 injury response was compared to the reported NCAP frontal test results for the head, chest and pelvis accelerations, and seat belt and femur forces. The phase, magnitude, and comprehensive error factors, from a Sprague and Geers analysis were calculated for each injury metric and then combined to determine the simulations with the best match to the crash test. The Sprague and Geers analyses typically yield error factors ranging from 0 to 1 with lower scores being more optimized. The total body injury response error factor for the most optimized simulation from each round of the variation study decreased from 0.466 to 0.395 to 0.360. This procedure to optimize vehicle FEMs is a valuable tool to conduct future CIREN case reconstructions in a variety of vehicles.

  20. Wide-angle full-vector beam propagation method based on an alternating direction implicit preconditioner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Siu Lit; Lu, Ya Yan

    2004-03-01

    Wide-angle full-vector beam propagation methods (BPMs) for three-dimensional wave-guiding structures can be derived on the basis of rational approximants of a square root operator or its exponential (i.e., the one-way propagator). While the less accurate BPM based on the slowly varying envelope approximation can be efficiently solved by the alternating direction implicit (ADI) method, the wide-angle variants involve linear systems that are more difficult to handle. We present an efficient solver for these linear systems that is based on a Krylov subspace method with an ADI preconditioner. The resulting wide-angle full-vector BPM is used to simulate the propagation of wave fields in a Y branch and a taper.

  1. Multilocus genetic models of handedness closely resemble single-locus models in explaining family data and are compatible with genome-wide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, I C; Davison, Angus; Armour, John A L

    2013-06-01

    Right- and left-handedness run in families, show greater concordance in monozygotic than dizygotic twins, and are well described by single-locus Mendelian models. Here we summarize a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) that finds no significant associations with handedness and is consistent with a meta-analysis of GWASs. The GWAS had 99% power to detect a single locus using the conventional criterion of P < 5 × 10(-8) for the single locus models of McManus and Annett. The strong conclusion is that handedness is not controlled by a single genetic locus. A consideration of the genetic architecture of height, primary ciliary dyskinesia, and intelligence suggests that handedness inheritance can be explained by a multilocus variant of the McManus DC model, classical effects on family and twins being barely distinguishable from the single locus model. Based on the ENGAGE meta-analysis of GWASs, we estimate at least 40 loci are involved in determining handedness. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Genome-Wide Expression Profiling of Five Mouse Models Identifies Similarities and Differences with Human Psoriasis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindell, William R.; Johnston, Andrew; Carbajal, Steve; Han, Gangwen; Wohn, Christian; Lu, Jun; Xing, Xianying; Nair, Rajan P.; Voorhees, John J.; Elder, James T.; Wang, Xiao-Jing; Sano, Shigetoshi; Prens, Errol P.; DiGiovanni, John; Pittelkow, Mark R.; Ward, Nicole L.; Gudjonsson, Johann E.

    2011-01-01

    Development of a suitable mouse model would facilitate the investigation of pathomechanisms underlying human psoriasis and would also assist in development of therapeutic treatments. However, while many psoriasis mouse models have been proposed, no single model recapitulates all features of the human disease, and standardized validation criteria for psoriasis mouse models have not been widely applied. In this study, whole-genome transcriptional profiling is used to compare gene expression patterns manifested by human psoriatic skin lesions with those that occur in five psoriasis mouse models (K5-Tie2, imiquimod, K14-AREG, K5-Stat3C and K5-TGFbeta1). While the cutaneous gene expression profiles associated with each mouse phenotype exhibited statistically significant similarity to the expression profile of psoriasis in humans, each model displayed distinctive sets of similarities and differences in comparison to human psoriasis. For all five models, correspondence to the human disease was strong with respect to genes involved in epidermal development and keratinization. Immune and inflammation-associated gene expression, in contrast, was more variable between models as compared to the human disease. These findings support the value of all five models as research tools, each with identifiable areas of convergence to and divergence from the human disease. Additionally, the approach used in this paper provides an objective and quantitative method for evaluation of proposed mouse models of psoriasis, which can be strategically applied in future studies to score strengths of mouse phenotypes relative to specific aspects of human psoriasis. PMID:21483750

  3. Attitudes as Object-Evaluation Associations of Varying Strength

    OpenAIRE

    Fazio, Russell H.

    2007-01-01

    Historical developments regarding the attitude concept are reviewed, and set the stage for consideration of a theoretical perspective that views attitude, not as a hypothetical construct, but as evaluative knowledge. A model of attitudes as object-evaluation associations of varying strength is summarized, along with research supporting the model’s contention that at least some attitudes are represented in memory and activated automatically upon the individual’s encountering the attitude objec...

  4. Holographic cinematography of time-varying reflecting and time-varying phase objects using a Nd:YAG laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    The use of a Nd:YAG laser to record holographic motion pictures of time-varying reflecting objects and time-varying phase objects is discussed. Sample frames from both types of holographic motion pictures are presented. The holographic system discussed is intended for three-dimensional flow visualization of the time-varying flows that occur in jet-engine components.

  5. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) as a Model Organism to Investigate the Effects of Roads on Wide-Ranging Carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litvaitis, John A; Reed, Gregory C; Carroll, Rory P; Litvaitis, Marian K; Tash, Jeffrey; Mahard, Tyler; Broman, Derek J A; Callahan, Catherine; Ellingwood, Mark

    2015-06-01

    We are using bobcats (Lynx rufus) as a model organism to examine how roads affect the abundance, distribution, and genetic structure of a wide-ranging carnivore. First, we compared the distribution of bobcat-vehicle collisions to road density and then estimated collision probabilities for specific landscapes using a moving window with road-specific traffic volume. Next, we obtained incidental observations of bobcats from the public, camera-trap detections, and locations of bobcats equipped with GPS collars to examine habitat selection. These data were used to generate a cost-surface map to investigate potential barrier effects of roads. Finally, we have begun an examination of genetic structure of bobcat populations in relation to major road networks. Distribution of vehicle-killed bobcats was correlated with road density, especially state and interstate highways. Collision models suggested that some regions may function as demographic sinks. Simulated movements in the context of the cost-surface map indicated that some major roads may be barriers. These patterns were supported by the genetic structure of bobcats. The sharpest divisions among genetically distinct demes occurred along natural barriers (mountains and large lakes) and in road-dense regions. In conclusion, our study has demonstrated the utility of using bobcats as a model organism to understand the variety of threats that roads pose to a wide-ranging species. Bobcats may also be useful as one of a group of focal species while developing approaches to maintain existing connectivity or mitigate the negative effects of roads.

  6. Phase transition of the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on time-varying configuration model networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Onge, Guillaume; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Laurence, Edward; Murphy, Charles; Dubé, Louis J.

    2018-02-01

    We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework on a given degree distribution, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary state using the rewiring rate to explore the whole range of the time variation of the structure relative to that of the SIS process. This analysis is suitable for the characterization of the phase transition and leads to three main contributions: (1) We obtain a self-consistent expression for the absorbing-state threshold, able to capture both collective and hub activation. (2) We recover the predictions of a number of existing approaches as limiting cases of our analysis, providing thereby a unifying point of view for the SIS dynamics on random networks. (3) We obtain bounds for the critical exponents of a number of quantities in the stationary state. This allows us to reinterpret the concept of hub-dominated phase transition. Within our framework, it appears as a heterogeneous critical phenomenon: observables for different degree classes have a different scaling with the infection rate. This phenomenon is followed by the successive activation of the degree classes beyond the epidemic threshold.

  7. Genome-wide single-generation signatures of local selection in the panmictic European eel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pujolar, J. M.; Jacobsen, M. W.; Als, Thomas Damm

    2014-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing and the collection of genome-wide data allow identifying adaptive variation and footprints of directional selection. Using a large SNP data set from 259 RAD-sequenced European eel individuals (glass eels) from eight locations between 34 and 64oN, we examined the patterns...... of genome-wide genetic diversity across locations. We tested for local selection by searching for increased population differentiation using FST-based outlier tests and by testing for significant associations between allele frequencies and environmental variables. The overall low genetic differentiation...... with single-generation signatures of spatially varying selection acting on glass eels. After screening 50 354 SNPs, a total of 754 potentially locally selected SNPs were identified. Candidate genes for local selection constituted a wide array of functions, including calcium signalling, neuroactive ligand...

  8. An MHD simulation model of time-dependent global solar corona with temporally varying solar-surface magnetic field maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, K.

    2013-11-01

    We present a model of a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the sub-Alfvenic solar corona and super-Alfvenic solar wind with temporally varying solar-surface boundary magnetic field data. To (i) accommodate observational data with a somewhat arbitrarily evolving solar photospheric magnetic field as the boundary value and (ii) keep the divergence-free condition, we developed a boundary model, here named Confined Differential Potential Field model, that calculates the horizontal components of the magnetic field, from changes in the vertical component, as a potential field confined in a thin shell. The projected normal characteristic method robustly simulates the solar corona and solar wind, in response to the temporal variation of the boundary Br. We conduct test MHD simulations for two periods, from Carrington Rotation number 2009 to 2010 and from Carrington Rotation 2074 to 2075 at solar maximum and minimum of Cycle 23, respectively. We obtained several coronal features that a fixed boundary condition cannot yield, such as twisted magnetic field lines at the lower corona and the transition from an open-field coronal hole to a closed-field streamer. We also obtained slight improvements of the interplanetary magnetic field, including the latitudinal component, at Earth.

  9. Theoretical analysis of surface stress for a microcantilever with varying widths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xianfang; Peng Xulong

    2008-01-01

    A theoretical model of surface stress is developed in this paper for a microcantilever with varying widths, and a method for calculating the surface stress via static deflection, slope angle or radius at curvature of the cantilever beam is presented. This model assumes that surface stresses are uniformly distributed on one surface of the cantilever beam. Based on this stressor model and using the small deformation Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, a fourth-order ordinary differential governing equation with varying coefficients or an equivalent second-order integro-differential equation is derived. A simple approach is then proposed to determine the solution of the resulting equation, and a closed-form approximate solution with high accuracy can be obtained. For rectangular and V-shaped microfabricated cantilevers, the dependences of transverse deflection, slope and curvature of the beam on the surface stresses are given explicitly. The obtained results indicate that the zeroth order approximation of the stressor model reduces to the end force model with a linear curvature for a rectangular cantilever. For larger surface stresses, the curvature exhibits a non-linear behaviour. The predictions through the stressor model give higher accuracy than those from the end moment and end force models and satisfactorily agree with experimental data. The derived closed-form solution can serve as a theoretical benchmark for verifying numerically obtained results for microcantilevers as atomic force microscopy and micromechanical sensors

  10. Frequency-scanning interferometry using a time-varying Kalman filter for dynamic tracking measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xingyu; Liu, Zhigang; Tao, Long; Deng, Zhongwen

    2017-10-16

    Frequency scanning interferometry (FSI) with a single external cavity diode laser (ECDL) and time-invariant Kalman filtering is an effective technique for measuring the distance of a dynamic target. However, due to the hysteresis of the piezoelectric ceramic transducer (PZT) actuator in the ECDL, the optical frequency sweeps of the ECDL exhibit different behaviors, depending on whether the frequency is increasing or decreasing. Consequently, the model parameters of Kalman filter appear time varying in each iteration, which produces state estimation errors with time-invariant filtering. To address this, in this paper, a time-varying Kalman filter is proposed to model the instantaneous movement of a target relative to the different optical frequency tuning durations of the ECDL. The combination of the FSI method with the time-varying Kalman filter was theoretically analyzed, and the simulation and experimental results show the proposed method greatly improves the performance of dynamic FSI measurements.

  11. Integrated management model. Methodology and software-enabled tood designed to assist a utility in developing a station-wide optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Llovet, R.; Ibanez, R.; Woodcock, J.

    2005-01-01

    A key concern for utilities today is optimizing station aging and realibility management activities in a manner that maximizes the value of those activities withing an affordable budget. The Westinghouse Proactive Asset Management Model is a methodology and software-enabled tood designed to assist a utility in developing a station-wide optimization of those activities. The process and tool support the development of an optimized, station-wide plan for inspection, testing, maintenance, repaor and replacement of aging components. The optimization identifies the benefit and optimal timing of those activities based on minimizing unplanned outage costs (avoided costs) and maximizing station Net Present Value. (Author)

  12. GEMMER: GEnome-wide tool for Multi-scale Modeling data Extraction and Representation for Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondeel, Thierry D G A; Crémazy, Frédéric; Barberis, Matteo

    2018-02-01

    Multi-scale modeling of biological systems requires integration of various information about genes and proteins that are connected together in networks. Spatial, temporal and functional information is available; however, it is still a challenge to retrieve and explore this knowledge in an integrated, quick and user-friendly manner. We present GEMMER (GEnome-wide tool for Multi-scale Modelling data Extraction and Representation), a web-based data-integration tool that facilitates high quality visualization of physical, regulatory and genetic interactions between proteins/genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. GEMMER creates network visualizations that integrate information on function, temporal expression, localization and abundance from various existing databases. GEMMER supports modeling efforts by effortlessly gathering this information and providing convenient export options for images and their underlying data. GEMMER is freely available at http://gemmer.barberislab.com. Source code, written in Python, JavaScript library D3js, PHP and JSON, is freely available at https://github.com/barberislab/GEMMER. M.Barberis@uva.nl. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

  13. Λ( t ) cosmology induced by a slowly varying Elko field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pereira, S.H.; Pinho, A.S.S.; Silva, J.M. Hoff da [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Faculdade de Engenharia, Guaratinguetá, Departamento de Física e Química Av. Dr. Ariberto Pereira da Cunha 333, 12516-410—Guaratinguetá, SP (Brazil); Jesus, J.F., E-mail: shpereira@feg.unesp.br, E-mail: alexandre.pinho510@gmail.com, E-mail: hoff@feg.unesp.br, E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Campus Experimental de Itapeva, R. Geraldo Alckmin, 519 Itapeva, SP (Brazil)

    2017-01-01

    In this work the exact Friedmann-Robertson-Walker equations for an Elko spinor field coupled to gravity in an Einstein-Cartan framework are presented. The torsion functions coupling the Elko field spin-connection to gravity can be exactly solved and the FRW equations for the system assume a relatively simple form. In the limit of a slowly varying Elko spinor field there is a relevant contribution to the field equations acting exactly as a time varying cosmological model Λ( t )=Λ{sub *}+3β H {sup 2}, where Λ{sub *} and β are constants. Observational data using distance luminosity from magnitudes of supernovae constraint the parameters Ω {sub m} and β, which leads to a lower limit to the Elko mass. Such model mimics, then, the effects of a dark energy fluid, here sourced by the Elko spinor field. The density perturbations in the linear regime were also studied in the pseudo-Newtonian formalism.

  14. Conditional CAPM: Time-varying Betas in the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frances Fischberg Blank

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The conditional CAPM is characterized by time-varying market beta. Based on state-space models approach, beta behavior can be modeled as a stochastic process dependent on conditioning variables related to business cycle and estimated using Kalman filter. This paper studies alternative models for portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market ratio in the Brazilian stock market and compares their adjustment to data. Asset pricing tests based on time-series and cross-sectional approaches are also implemented. A random walk process combined with conditioning variables is the preferred model, reducing pricing errors compared to unconditional CAPM, but the errors are still significant. Cross-sectional test show that book-to-market ratio becomes less relevant, but past returns still capture cross-section variation

  15. Identification of Time Varying Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate Recursive Time Domain Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, P.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    with the smoothed quanties which have been obtained from SARCOF. The results show the usefulness of the technique for identification of a time varying civil engineering structure. It is found that all the techniques give reliable estiates of the frequencies of the two lowest modes and the first mode shape. Only...

  16. Genome-Wide Prediction of DNA Methylation Using DNA Composition and Sequence Complexity in Human.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chengchao; Yao, Shixin; Li, Xinghao; Chen, Chujia; Hu, Xuehai

    2017-02-16

    DNA methylation plays a significant role in transcriptional regulation by repressing activity. Change of the DNA methylation level is an important factor affecting the expression of target genes and downstream phenotypes. Because current experimental technologies can only assay a small proportion of CpG sites in the human genome, it is urgent to develop reliable computational models for predicting genome-wide DNA methylation. Here, we proposed a novel algorithm that accurately extracted sequence complexity features (seven features) and developed a support-vector-machine-based prediction model with integration of the reported DNA composition features (trinucleotide frequency and GC content, 65 features) by utilizing the methylation profiles of embryonic stem cells in human. The prediction results from 22 human chromosomes with size-varied windows showed that the 600-bp window achieved the best average accuracy of 94.7%. Moreover, comparisons with two existing methods further showed the superiority of our model, and cross-species predictions on mouse data also demonstrated that our model has certain generalization ability. Finally, a statistical test of the experimental data and the predicted data on functional regions annotated by ChromHMM found that six out of 10 regions were consistent, which implies reliable prediction of unassayed CpG sites. Accordingly, we believe that our novel model will be useful and reliable in predicting DNA methylation.

  17. A reciprocal Wald theorem for varying gravitational function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fay, Stephane

    2004-01-01

    We study when a cosmological constant is a natural issue if it is mimicked by the potential of a massive Hyperextended Scalar Tensor theory with a perfect fluid for Bianchi type I and V models. We then deduce a reciprocal Wald theorem giving the conditions such that the potential tends to a non vanishing constant when the gravitational function varies. We also get the conditions allowing the potential to vanish or diverge. (orig.)

  18. Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berardi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Stylized facts about statistical properties for short horizon returns in financial markets have been identified in the literature, but a satisfactory understanding for their manifestation is yet to be achieved. In this work, we show that a simple asset pricing model with representative agent is able to generate time series of returns that replicate such stylized facts if the risk aversion coefficient is allowed to change endogenously over time in response to unexpected excess returns under evolutionary forces. The same model, under constant risk aversion, would instead generate returns that are essentially Gaussian. We conclude that an endogenous time-varying risk aversion represents a very parsimonious way to make the model match real data on key statistical properties, and therefore deserves careful consideration from economists and practitioners alike.

  19. Modeling uranium(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite under varying carbonate concentrations: A surface complexation model accounting for the spillover effect on surface potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournassat, C.; Tinnacher, R. M.; Grangeon, S.; Davis, J. A.

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of U(VI) adsorption onto montmorillonite clay is confounded by the complexities of: (1) the montmorillonite structure in terms of adsorption sites on basal and edge surfaces, and the complex interactions between the electrical double layers at these surfaces, and (2) U(VI) solution speciation, which can include cationic, anionic and neutral species. Previous U(VI)-montmorillonite adsorption and modeling studies have typically expanded classical surface complexation modeling approaches, initially developed for simple oxides, to include both cation exchange and surface complexation reactions. However, previous models have not taken into account the unique characteristics of electrostatic surface potentials that occur at montmorillonite edge sites, where the electrostatic surface potential of basal plane cation exchange sites influences the surface potential of neighboring edge sites ('spillover' effect). A series of U(VI) - Na-montmorillonite batch adsorption experiments was conducted as a function of pH, with variable U(VI), Ca, and dissolved carbonate concentrations. Based on the experimental data, a new type of surface complexation model (SCM) was developed for montmorillonite, that specifically accounts for the spillover effect using the edge surface speciation model by Tournassat et al. (2016a). The SCM allows for a prediction of U(VI) adsorption under varying chemical conditions with a minimum number of fitting parameters, not only for our own experimental results, but also for a number of published data sets. The model agreed well with many of these datasets without introducing a second site type or including the formation of ternary U(VI)-carbonato surface complexes. The model predictions were greatly impacted by utilizing analytical measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations in individual sample solutions rather than assuming solution equilibration with a specific partial pressure of CO2, even when the gas phase was

  20. Robust outer synchronization between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuan; Wang, Xingyuan; Luo, Chao; Li, Junqiu; Wang, Chunpeng

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we focus on the robust outer synchronization problem between two nonlinear complex networks with parametric disturbances and mixed time-varying delays. Firstly, a general complex network model is proposed. Besides the nonlinear couplings, the network model in this paper can possess parametric disturbances, internal time-varying delay, discrete time-varying delay and distributed time-varying delay. Then, according to the robust control strategy, linear matrix inequality and Lyapunov stability theory, several outer synchronization protocols are strictly derived. Simple linear matrix controllers are designed to driver the response network synchronize to the drive network. Additionally, our results can be applied on the complex networks without parametric disturbances. Finally, by utilizing the delayed Lorenz chaotic system as the dynamics of all nodes, simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

  1. Phantom dark energy with varying-mass dark matter particles: Acceleration and cosmic coincidence problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon, Genly; Saridakis, Emmanuel N.

    2010-01-01

    We investigate several varying-mass dark matter particle models in the framework of phantom cosmology. We examine whether there exist late-time cosmological solutions, corresponding to an accelerating universe and possessing dark energy and dark matter densities of the same order. Imposing exponential or power-law potentials and exponential or power-law mass dependence, we conclude that the coincidence problem cannot be solved or even alleviated. Thus, if dark energy is attributed to the phantom paradigm, varying-mass dark matter models cannot fulfill the basic requirement that led to their construction.

  2. System-wide versus component-specific trust using multiple aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, David; Rice, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    Previous research in operator trust toward automated aids has focused primarily on single aids. The current study focuses on how operator trust is affected by the presence of multiple aids. Two competing theories of multiple-trust are presented. A component-specific trust theory predicts that operators will differentially place their trust in automated aids that vary in reliability. A system-wide trust theory predicts that operators will treat multiple imperfect aids as one "system" and merge their trust across aids despite differences in the aids' reliability. A simulated flight task was used to test these theories, whereby operators performed a pursuit tracking task while concurrently monitoring multiple system gauges that were augmented with perfect or imperfect automated aids. The data revealed that a system-wide trust theory best predicted the data; operators merged their trust across both aids, behaving toward a perfectly reliable aid in the same manner as they did towards unreliable aids.

  3. An Active Illumination and Appearance (AIA) Model for Face Alignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahraman, Fatih; Gokmen, Muhittin; Darkner, Sune

    2007-01-01

    Face recognition systems are typically required to work under highly varying illumination conditions. This leads to complex effects imposed on the acquired face image that pertains little to the actual identity. Consequently, illumination normalization is required to reach acceptable recognition...... rates in face recognition systems. In this paper, we propose an approach that integrates the face identity and illumination models under the widely used Active Appearance Model framework as an extension to the texture model in order to obtain illumination-invariant face localization...

  4. The atomic scale structure of CXV carbon: wide-angle x-ray scattering and modeling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawelek, L; Brodka, A; Dore, J C; Honkimaki, V; Burian, A

    2013-11-13

    The disordered structure of commercially available CXV activated carbon produced from finely powdered wood-based carbon has been studied using the wide-angle x-ray scattering technique, molecular dynamics and density functional theory simulations. The x-ray scattering data has been converted to the real space representation in the form of the pair correlation function via the Fourier transform. Geometry optimizations using classical molecular dynamics based on the reactive empirical bond order potential and density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-31g* level have been performed to generate nanoscale models of CXV carbon consistent with the experimental data. The final model of the structure comprises four chain-like and buckled graphitic layers containing a small percentage of four-fold coordinated atoms (sp(3) defects) in each layer. The presence of non-hexagonal rings in the atomic arrangement has been also considered.

  5. New varying speed of light theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magueijo, Joao

    2003-01-01

    We review recent work on the possibility of a varying speed of light (VSL). We start by discussing the physical meaning of a varying-c, dispelling the myth that the constancy of c is a matter of logical consistency. We then summarize the main VSL mechanisms proposed so far: hard breaking of Lorentz invariance; bimetric theories (where the speeds of gravity and light are not the same); locally Lorentz invariant VSL theories; theories exhibiting a colour-dependent speed of light; varying-c induced by extra dimensions (e.g. in the brane-world scenario); and field theories where VSL results from vacuum polarization or CPT violation. We show how VSL scenarios may solve the cosmological problems usually tackled by inflation, and also how they may produce a scale-invariant spectrum of Gaussian fluctuations, capable of explaining the WMAP data. We then review the connection between VSL and theories of quantum gravity, showing how 'doubly special' relativity has emerged as a VSL effective model of quantum space-time, with observational implications for ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and gamma ray bursts. Some recent work on the physics of 'black' holes and other compact objects in VSL theories is also described, highlighting phenomena associated with spatial (as opposed to temporal) variations in c. Finally, we describe the observational status of the theory. The evidence is currently slim-redshift dependence in the atomic fine structure, anomalies with UHECRs, and (to a much lesser extent) the acceleration of the universe and the WMAP data. The constraints (e.g. those arising from nucleosynthesis or geological bounds) are tight but not insurmountable. We conclude with the observational predictions of the theory and the prospects for its refutation or vindication

  6. Crustal Deformation In the Northwestern Margin of the South China Sea: Results From Wide-angle Seismic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H.; Klingelhoefer, F.

    2017-12-01

    The South China Sea (SCS) has undergone episodic spreading during the Cenozoic Era. The long-term extension has shaped the continental margins of the SCS, leading to a progressive breakup of the lithosphere. Separated blocks and rift troughs, as controlled by tectonic stretching, contains key information about the deforming mechanism of the crust. In this work, we present a P-wave velocity model of a wide-angle seismic profile OBS2013-1 which passes through the NW margin of the SCS. Modeling of 25 ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) data revealed a detailed crustal structure and shallow complexities along the profile (Figure 1). The crust thins symmetrically across the Xisha Trough, from more than 20 km on flanks to 10 km in the central valley where the sediments thickens over 5 km; A volcano is situated on top of the centre basement high where the Moho drops slightly. At the distal margin around the Zhongsha Trough, the upper crust was detached and accordingly made the middle crust exhumed in a narrow area ( 20 km wide). Meanwhile, materials from the lower crust rises asymmetrically, increasing the crustal velocity by 0.3 km/s and may also giving rise to volcanisms along the hanging side. A 40 km wide hyper-stretched crust (with thickness of 5 km) was identified next to the Zhongsha Trough and covered by overflowing magma and post-rift sediments on the top. These observations argue for a depth-related and asymmetrically extension of the crust, including (1) detachment fault controls the deformation of the upper crust, leading to exhumation of the middle crust and asymmetrically rising of the lower crust, (2) The region adjacent to the exhumation region and with highly thinned crust can be considered as extinct OCT due to magma-starved supplying.

  7. Free surface profiles in river flows: Can standard energy-based gradually-varied flow computations be pursued?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantero, Francisco; Castro-Orgaz, Oscar; Garcia-Marín, Amanda; Ayuso, José Luis; Dey, Subhasish

    2015-10-01

    Is the energy equation for gradually-varied flow the best approximation for the free surface profile computations in river flows? Determination of flood inundation in rivers and natural waterways is based on the hydraulic computation of flow profiles. This is usually done using energy-based gradually-varied flow models, like HEC-RAS, that adopts a vertical division method for discharge prediction in compound channel sections. However, this discharge prediction method is not so accurate in the context of advancements over the last three decades. This paper firstly presents a study of the impact of discharge prediction on the gradually-varied flow computations by comparing thirteen different methods for compound channels, where both energy and momentum equations are applied. The discharge, velocity distribution coefficients, specific energy, momentum and flow profiles are determined. After the study of gradually-varied flow predictions, a new theory is developed to produce higher-order energy and momentum equations for rapidly-varied flow in compound channels. These generalized equations enable to describe the flow profiles with more generality than the gradually-varied flow computations. As an outcome, results of gradually-varied flow provide realistic conclusions for computations of flow in compound channels, showing that momentum-based models are in general more accurate; whereas the new theory developed for rapidly-varied flow opens a new research direction, so far not investigated in flows through compound channels.

  8. Response-only modal identification using random decrement algorithm with time-varying threshold level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Chang Sheng; Tseng, Tse Chuan

    2014-01-01

    Modal Identification from response data only is studied for structural systems under nonstationary ambient vibration. The topic of this paper is the estimation of modal parameters from nonstationary ambient vibration data by applying the random decrement algorithm with time-varying threshold level. In the conventional random decrement algorithm, the threshold level for evaluating random dec signatures is defined as the standard deviation value of response data of the reference channel. The distortion of random dec signatures may be, however, induced by the error involved in noise from the original response data in practice. To improve the accuracy of identification, a modification of the sampling procedure in random decrement algorithm is proposed for modal-parameter identification from the nonstationary ambient response data. The time-varying threshold level is presented for the acquisition of available sample time history to perform averaging analysis, and defined as the temporal root-mean-square function of structural response, which can appropriately describe a wide variety of nonstationary behaviors in reality, such as the time-varying amplitude (variance) of a nonstationary process in a seismic record. Numerical simulations confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed modal-identification method from nonstationary ambient response data under noisy conditions.

  9. Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koboroff

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Anti-predator behaviour of magpies was investigated, using five species of model predators, at times of raising offspring. We predicted differences in mobbing strategies for each predator presented and also that raising juveniles would affect intensity of the mobbing event. Fourteen permanent resident family groups were tested using 5 different types of predator (avian and reptilian known to be of varying degrees of risk to magpies and common in their habitat. In all, 210 trials were conducted (across three different stages of juvenile development. We found that the stage of juvenile development did not alter mobbing behaviour significantly, but predator type did. Aerial strategies (such as swooping were elicited by taxidermic models of raptors, whereas a taxidermic model of a monitor lizard was approached on the ground and a model snake was rarely approached. Swooping patterns also changed according to which of the three raptors was presented. Our results show that, in contrast to findings in other species, magpies vary mobbing strategy depending on the predator rather than varying mobbing intensity.

  10. Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koboroff, A; Kaplan, G; Rogers, Lj

    2013-01-01

    Anti-predator behaviour of magpies was investigated, using five species of model predators, at times of raising offspring. We predicted differences in mobbing strategies for each predator presented and also that raising juveniles would affect intensity of the mobbing event. Fourteen permanent resident family groups were tested using 5 different types of predator (avian and reptilian) known to be of varying degrees of risk to magpies and common in their habitat. In all, 210 trials were conducted (across three different stages of juvenile development). We found that the stage of juvenile development did not alter mobbing behaviour significantly, but predator type did. Aerial strategies (such as swooping) were elicited by taxidermic models of raptors, whereas a taxidermic model of a monitor lizard was approached on the ground and a model snake was rarely approached. Swooping patterns also changed according to which of the three raptors was presented. Our results show that, in contrast to findings in other species, magpies vary mobbing strategy depending on the predator rather than varying mobbing intensity.

  11. Three-dimensional orientation and location-dependent varying rules of radiographic angles of the acetabular cup.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing-Xin; Su, Xiu-Yun; Zhao, Zhe; Xiao, Ruo-Xiu; Zhang, Li-Cheng; Tang, Pei-Fu

    2018-02-17

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the varying rules of radiographic angles following varying three-dimensional (3D) orientations and locations of cup using an accurate mathematical model. A cone model is established to address the quantitative relationship between the opening circle of cup and its ellipse projection on radiograph. The varying rules of two-dimensional (2D) radiographic anteversion (RA) and inclination (RI) angles can be analyzed. When the centre of cup is located above X-ray source, with proper 3D RI/RA angles, 2D RA angle can be equal to its 3D counterpart, and 2D RI angle is usually greater than its 3D counterpart. Except for the original point on hip-centered anterior-posterior radiograph, there is no area on radiograph where both 2D RA and RI angles are equal to their 3D counterparts simultaneously. This study proposes an innovative model for accurately explaining how 2D RA/RI angles of cup are varying following different 3D RA/RI angles and location of cup. The analysis results provide clinicians an intuitive grasp of knowledge about 2D RA/RI angles greater or smaller than their 3D counterparts post-operatively. The established model may allow determining the effects of pelvic rotations on 2D radiographic angles of cup.

  12. Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Elizabeth C.; Kelly, Michael R.; Ochocki, Brad M.; Akinwumi, Segun M.; Hamre, Karen E. S.; Tien, Joseph H.; Eisenberg, Marisa C.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and other features. These differences may yield different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether model inferences are robust t...

  13. Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging mrkets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematicrisk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level ofintegration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on themarket value

  14. Analysis of rosen piezoelectric transformers with a varying cross-section.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, H; Yang, J; Hu, Y

    2008-07-01

    We study the effects of a varying cross-section on the performance of Rosen piezoelectric transformers operating with length extensional modes of rods. A theoretical analysis is performed using an extended version of a one-dimensional model developed in a previous paper. Numerical results based on the theoretical analysis are presented.

  15. UNUSUALLY WIDE BINARIES: ARE THEY WIDE OR UNUSUAL?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraus, Adam L.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.

    2009-01-01

    We describe an astrometric and spectroscopic campaign to confirm the youth and association of a complete sample of candidate wide companions in Taurus and Upper Sco. Our survey found 15 new binary systems (three in Taurus and 12 in Upper Sco) with separations of 3''-30'' (500-5000 AU) among all of the known members with masses of 2.5-0.012 M sun . The total sample of 49 wide systems in these two regions conforms to only some expectations from field multiplicity surveys. Higher mass stars have a higher frequency of wide binary companions, and there is a marked paucity of wide binary systems near the substellar regime. However, the separation distribution appears to be log-flat, rather than declining as in the field, and the mass ratio distribution is more biased toward similar-mass companions than the initial mass function or the field G-dwarf distribution. The maximum separation also shows no evidence of a limit at ∼ sun . We attribute this result to the post-natal dynamical sculpting that occurs for most field systems; our binary systems will escape to the field intact, but most field stars are formed in denser clusters and undergo significant dynamical evolution. In summary, only wide binary systems with total masses ∼ sun appear to be 'unusually wide'.

  16. Proposed residual stress model for roller bent wide flange sections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spoorenberg, R.C.; Snijder, H.H.; Hoenderkamp, J.C.D.

    2011-01-01

    The manufacturing process of structural wide flange steel sections introduces residual stresses in the material. These stresses due to hot-rolling or welding influence the inelastic buckling response of structural steel members and need to be taken into account in the design. Based on experimental

  17. Hollow-Cone Spray Modeling for Outwardly Opening Piezoelectric Injector

    KAUST Repository

    Sim, Jaeheon

    2016-01-04

    Linear instability sheet atomization (LISA) breakup model has been widely used for modeling hollow-cone spray. However, the model was originally developed for inwardlyopening pressure-swirl injectors by assuming toroidal ligament breakups. Therefore, LISA model is not suitable for simulating outwardly opening injectors having string-like structures at wide spray angles. Furthermore, the varying area and shape of the annular nozzle exit makes the modeling difficult. In this study, a new spray modeling was proposed for outwardly opening hollow-cone injector. The injection velocities are computed from the given mas flow rate and injection pressure regardless of ambiguous nozzle exit geometries. The modified Kelvin-Helmholtz and Rayleigh-Taylor (KH-RT) breakup model is used with adjusted initial Sauter mean diameter (SMD) for modeling breakup of string-like liquid film spray. Liquid spray injection was modeled using Lagrangian discrete parcel method within the framework of commercial CFD software CONVERGE, and the detailed model was implemented by user defined functions. It was found that the new model predicted the liquid penetration length and local SMD accurately for various fuels and chamber conditions.

  18. Weakly Coupled Oscillators in a Slowly Varying World

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Youngmin; Ermentrout, Bard

    2016-01-01

    We extend the theory of weakly coupled oscillators to incorporate slowly varying inputs and parameters. We employ a combination of regular perturbation and an adiabatic approximation to derive equations for the phase-difference between a pair of oscillators. We apply this to the simple Hopf oscillator and then to a biophysical model. The latter represents the behavior of a neuron that is subject to slow modulation of a muscarinic current such as would occur during transient attention through ...

  19. Universal dispersion model for characterization of optical thin films over wide spectral range: Application to magnesium fluoride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franta, Daniel; Nečas, David; Giglia, Angelo; Franta, Pavel; Ohlídal, Ivan

    2017-11-01

    Optical characterization of magnesium fluoride thin films is performed in a wide spectral range from far infrared to extreme ultraviolet (0.01-45 eV) utilizing the universal dispersion model. Two film defects, i.e. random roughness of the upper boundaries and defect transition layer at lower boundary are taken into account. An extension of universal dispersion model consisting in expressing the excitonic contributions as linear combinations of Gaussian and truncated Lorentzian terms is introduced. The spectral dependencies of the optical constants are presented in a graphical form and by the complete set of dispersion parameters that allows generating tabulated optical constants with required range and step using a simple utility in the newAD2 software package.

  20. Description of signature scales in a floating wind turbine model wake subjected to varying turbulence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadum, Hawwa; Rockel, Stanislav; Holling, Michael; Peinke, Joachim; Cal, Raul Bayon

    2017-11-01

    The wake behind a floating model horizontal axis wind turbine during pitch motion is investigated and compared to a fixed wind turbine wake. An experiment is conducted in an acoustic wind tunnel where hot-wire data are acquired at five downstream locations. At each downstream location, a rake of 16 hot-wires was used with placement of the probes increasing radially in the vertical, horizontal, and diagonally at 45 deg. In addition, the effect of turbulence intensity on the floating wake is examined by subjecting the wind turbine to different inflow conditions controlled through three settings in the wind tunnel grid, a passive and two active protocols, thus varying in intensity. The wakes are inspected by statistics of the point measurements, where the various length/time scales are considered. The wake characteristics for a floating wind turbine are compared to a fixed turbine, and uncovering its features; relevant as the demand for exploiting deep waters in wind energy is increasing.

  1. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  2. New Vary-Chap Profile of the Topside Ionosphere Electron Density Distribution for use with the IRI Model and the GIRO Real-Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsumei, Patrick; Reinisch, Bodo W.; Huang, Xueqin; Bilitza, Dieter

    2012-01-01

    A new Vary-Chap function is introduced for the empirical modeling of the electron density N(h) profile in the topside ionosphere that uses a shape function S(h) in the generalized Chapman function. The Vary-Chap profile extends the bottomside profile that is specified by the IRI model or measured by the Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory (GIRO) to the altitude of the ISIS-2 satellite. Some 80,000 topside profiles, measured by the topside sounder on the ISIS-2 satellite were analyzed, and the shape function S(h) was calculated for each profile. A parameterized function S*(h), composed of two sub-functions S1(h) and S2(h), is fitted to the measured S(h) profile using three free parameters. At altitudes just above the F2 layer peak height hmF2, the shape function S1 controls S(h), and at greater altitudes S2 controls S(h). The height of the intersection of S1 and S2 is defined as the transition height h(sub T) indicating the transition from an O(+) to an H(+)-dominated profile shape. The observed transition heights range from approx.500 km to 800 km.

  3. Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sensoy, Ahmet; Tabak, Benjamin M.

    2015-10-01

    This paper proposes a new efficiency index to model time-varying inefficiency in stock markets. We focus on European stock markets and show that they have different degrees of time-varying efficiency. We observe that the 2008 global financial crisis has an adverse effect on almost all EU stock markets. However, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis has a significant adverse effect only on the markets in France, Spain and Greece. For the late members, joining EU does not have a uniform effect on stock market efficiency. Our results have important implications for policy makers, investors, risk managers and academics.

  4. Plant-wide modelling of phosphorus transformations in wastewater treatment systems: Impacts of control and operational strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solon, K; Flores-Alsina, X; Kazadi Mbamba, C; Ikumi, D; Volcke, E I P; Vaneeckhaute, C; Ekama, G; Vanrolleghem, P A; Batstone, D J; Gernaey, K V; Jeppsson, U

    2017-04-15

    The objective of this paper is to report the effects that control/operational strategies may have on plant-wide phosphorus (P) transformations in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). The development of a new set of biological (activated sludge, anaerobic digestion), physico-chemical (aqueous phase, precipitation, mass transfer) process models and model interfaces (between water and sludge line) were required to describe the required tri-phasic (gas, liquid, solid) compound transformations and the close interlinks between the P and the sulfur (S) and iron (Fe) cycles. A modified version of the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) (open loop) is used as test platform upon which three different operational alternatives (A 1 , A 2 , A 3 ) are evaluated. Rigorous sensor and actuator models are also included in order to reproduce realistic control actions. Model-based analysis shows that the combination of an ammonium ( [Formula: see text] ) and total suspended solids (X TSS ) control strategy (A 1 ) better adapts the system to influent dynamics, improves phosphate [Formula: see text] accumulation by phosphorus accumulating organisms (X PAO ) (41%), increases nitrification/denitrification efficiency (18%) and reduces aeration energy (E aeration ) (21%). The addition of iron ( [Formula: see text] ) for chemical P removal (A 2 ) promotes the formation of ferric oxides (X HFO-H , X HFO-L ), phosphate adsorption (X HFO-H,P , X HFO-L,P ), co-precipitation (X HFO-H,P,old , X HFO-L,P,old ) and consequently reduces the P levels in the effluent (from 2.8 to 0.9 g P.m -3 ). This also has an impact on the sludge line, with hydrogen sulfide production ( [Formula: see text] ) reduced (36%) due to iron sulfide (X FeS ) precipitation. As a consequence, there is also a slightly higher energy production (E production ) from biogas. Lastly, the inclusion of a stripping and crystallization unit (A 3 ) for P recovery reduces the quantity of P in the anaerobic digester supernatant

  5. Working Group 2: A critical appraisal of model simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.; Cubasch, U.; Gates, W.L.; Harvey, L.D.; Hunt, B.; Katz, R.; Lorenz, E.; Manabe, S.; McAvaney, B.; McFarlane, N.; Meehl, G.; Meleshko, V.; Robock, A.; Stenchikov, G.; Stouffer, R.; Wang, W.C.; Washington, W.; Watts, R.; Zebiak, S.

    1990-01-01

    The complexity of the climate system and the absence of definitive analogs to the evolving climatic situation force use of theoretical models to project the future climatic influence of the relatively rapid and on-going increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other trace gases. A wide variety of climate models has been developed to look at particular aspects of the problem and to vary the mix of complexity and resource requirements needed to study various aspects of the problem; all such models have contributed to their insights of the problem

  6. Meta-analysis of genome-wide association from genomic prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A limitation of many genome-wide association studies (GWA) in animal breeding is that there are many loci with small effect sizes; thus, larger sample sizes (N) are required to guarantee suitable power of detection. To increase sample size, results from different GWA can be combined in a meta-analys...

  7. Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

  8. Multivariate Option Pricing with Time Varying Volatility and Correlations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

    In recent years multivariate models for asset returns have received much attention, in particular this is the case for models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes to option pricing. Specifically, we derive the risk...... neutral dynamics for a general class of multivariate heteroskedastic models, and we provide a feasible way to price options in this framework. Our framework can be used irrespective of the assumed underlying distribution and dynamics, and it nests several important special cases. We provide an application...... to options on the minimum of two indices. Our results show that not only is correlation important for these options but so is allowing this correlation to be dynamic. Moreover, we show that for the general model exposure to correlation risk carries an important premium, and when this is neglected option...

  9. Combine TV-L1 model with guided image filtering for wide and faint ring artifacts correction of in-line x-ray phase contrast computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dongjiang; Qu, Gangrong; Hu, Chunhong; Zhao, Yuqing; Chen, Xiaodong

    2018-01-01

    In practice, mis-calibrated detector pixels give rise to wide and faint ring artifacts in the reconstruction image of the In-line phase-contrast computed tomography (IL-PC-CT). Ring artifacts correction is essential in IL-PC-CT. In this study, a novel method of wide and faint ring artifacts correction was presented based on combining TV-L1 model with guided image filtering (GIF) in the reconstruction image domain. The new correction method includes two main steps namely, the GIF step and the TV-L1 step. To validate the performance of this method, simulation data and real experimental synchrotron data are provided. The results demonstrate that TV-L1 model with GIF step can effectively correct the wide and faint ring artifacts for IL-PC-CT.

  10. Genome-wide association genetics of an adaptive trait in lodgepole pine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parchman, Thomas L; Gompert, Zachariah; Mudge, Joann; Schilkey, Faye D; Benkman, Craig W; Buerkle, C Alex

    2012-06-01

    Pine cones that remain closed and retain seeds until fire causes the cones to open (cone serotiny) represent a key adaptive trait in a variety of pine species. In lodgepole pine, there is substantial geographical variation in serotiny across the Rocky Mountain region. This variation in serotiny has evolved as a result of geographically divergent selection, with consequences that extend to forest communities and ecosystems. An understanding of the genetic architecture of this trait is of interest owing to the wide-reaching ecological consequences of serotiny and also because of the repeated evolution of the trait across the genus. Here, we present and utilize an inexpensive and time-effective method for generating population genomic data. The method uses restriction enzymes and PCR amplification to generate a library of fragments that can be sequenced with a high level of multiplexing. We obtained data for more than 95,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms across 98 serotinous and nonserotinous lodgepole pines from three populations. We used a Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM) to test for an association between genotypic variation at these loci and serotiny. The probability of serotiny varied by genotype at 11 loci, and the association between genotype and serotiny at these loci was consistent in each of the three populations of pines. Genetic variation across these 11 loci explained 50% of the phenotypic variation in serotiny. Our results provide a first genome-wide association map of serotiny in pines and demonstrate an inexpensive and efficient method for generating population genomic data. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, David H; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto; Alva, Ashok; Asseng, Senthold; Barreda, Carolina; Bindi, Marco; Boote, Kenneth J; Ferrise, Roberto; Franke, Angelinus C; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Merante, Paolo; Nendel, Claas; Olesen, Jorgen E; Parker, Phillip S; Raes, Dirk; Raymundo, Rubi; Ruane, Alex C; Stockle, Claudio; Supit, Iwan; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wolf, Joost; Woli, Prem

    2017-03-01

    A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be

  12. The Effect of Varying Jaw-elevator Muscle Forces on a Finite Element Model of a Human Cranium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro-Ibacache, Viviana; O'Higgins, Paul

    2016-07-01

    Finite element analyses simulating masticatory system loading are increasingly undertaken in primates, hominin fossils and modern humans. Simplifications of models and loadcases are often required given the limits of data and technology. One such area of uncertainty concerns the forces applied to cranial models and their sensitivity to variations in these forces. We assessed the effect of varying force magnitudes among jaw-elevator muscles applied to a finite element model of a human cranium. The model was loaded to simulate incisor and molar bites using different combinations of muscle forces. Symmetric, asymmetric, homogeneous, and heterogeneous muscle activations were simulated by scaling maximal forces. The effects were compared with respect to strain distribution (i.e., modes of deformation) and magnitudes; bite forces and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) reaction forces. Predicted modes of deformation, strain magnitudes and bite forces were directly proportional to total applied muscle force and relatively insensitive to the degree of heterogeneity of muscle activation. However, TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains decrease and increase on the balancing and working sides according to the degree of asymmetry of loading. These results indicate that when modes, rather than magnitudes, of facial deformation are of interest, errors in applied muscle forces have limited effects. However the degree of asymmetric loading does impact on TMJ reaction forces and mandibular fossa strains. These findings are of particular interest in relation to studies of skeletal and fossil material, where muscle data are not available and estimation of muscle forces from skeletal proxies is prone to error. Anat Rec, 299:828-839, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Predicting moisture state of timber members in a continuously varying climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Staffan; Turk, Goran; Hozjan, Tomaz

    2011-01-01

    A prerequisite for a sensible estimate of moisture induced stresses in timber members is an accurate prediction of the members’ moisture states during their service life. There are, however, an infinite number of possible moisture states for an arbitrary timber member in a natural varying climate...... the realizations were made, are based on a fully coupled transport model including a model for the influential sorption hysteresis of wood. A format containing required information suitable for assessing the “moisture” action on timber members is proposed. In addition it is illustrated how a model of high...

  14. Radiation damage in stainless steel under varying temperature neutron irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Naoaki [Kyushu Univ., Kasuga, Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics

    1998-03-01

    Microstructural evolution of model alloys of 316SS was examined by neutron irradiation at JMTR under cyclic temperature varying condition. In the case of Fe-16Cr-17Ni, formation of interstitial loops and voids are strongly suppressed by varying the temperature from 473K to 673K. By adding Ti as miner element (0.25wt%), however, abnormal accumulation of vacancies (void swelling of 11%dpa at 0.1dpa) was observed. Theoretical analysis standing on the rate theory of defect clustering and simulation irradiation experiments with heavy ions indicates that the vacancy-rich condition which appears temporally during and after changing the temperature from low to high brings these results. It was also shown that only 1 dpa pre-irradiation at low temperature changes swelling behavior at high temperature above several 10 dpa. The understanding of non-steady-state defect processes under temperature varying irradiation is very important to estimate the radiation damage under fusion environment where short-term and long-term temperature variation is expected. (author)

  15. Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Dobiesz, Norine E.; Fielder, David G.; Johnson, James E.; Ebener, Mark P.; Cottrill, Adam R.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Koproski, Scott R.

    2015-01-01

    We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), walleye (Sander vitreus), and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby (Neogobius melanostomus). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

  16. Approximate P-wave ray tracing and dynamic ray tracing in weakly orthorhombic media of varying symmetry orientation

    KAUST Repository

    Masmoudi, Nabil; Pšenčí k, Ivan

    2014-01-01

    We present an approximate, but efficient and sufficiently accurate P-wave ray tracing and dynamic ray tracing procedure for 3D inhomogeneous, weakly orthorhombic media with varying orientation of symmetry planes. In contrast to commonly used approaches, the orthorhombic symmetry is preserved at any point of the model. The model is described by six weak-anisotropy parameters and three Euler angles, which may vary arbitrarily, but smoothly, throughout the model. We use the procedure for the calculation of rays and corresponding two-point traveltimes in a VSP experiment in a part of the BP benchmark model generalized to orthorhombic symmetry.

  17. FEM Modeling of Crack Propagation in a Model Multiphase Alloy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lihe QIAN; Seishi NISHIDO; Hiroyuki TODA; Tosliro KOBAYASHI

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, several widely applied fracture criteria were first numerically examined and the crack-tip-region Jintegral criterion was confirmed to be more applicable to predict fracture angle in an elastic-plastic multiphase material. Then, the crack propagation in an idealized dendritic two-phase Al-7%Si alloy was modeled using an elastic-plastic finite element method. The variation of crack growth driving force with crack extension was also demonstrated. It is found that the crack path is significantly influenced by the presence of α-phase near the crack tip, and the crack growth driving force varies drastically from place to place. Lastly, the simulated fracture path in the two-phase model alloy was compared with the experimentally observed fracture path.

  18. The optimal manufacturing batch size with rework under time-varying demand process for a finite time horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musa, Sarah; Supadi, Siti Suzlin; Omar, Mohd

    2014-07-01

    Rework is one of the solutions to some of the main issues in reverse logistic and green supply chain as it reduces production cost and environmental problem. Many researchers focus on developing rework model, but to the knowledge of the author, none of them has developed a model for time-varying demand rate. In this paper, we extend previous works and develop multiple batch production system for time-varying demand rate with rework. In this model, the rework is done within the same production cycle.

  19. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    H. Fleisher, David; Condori, Bruno; Quiroz, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States.......01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach....

  20. Lichen Persistence and Recovery in Response to Varied Volcanic Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, P.; Wheeler, T. B.

    2015-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions produce many ecological disturbances that structure vegetation. While lichens are sensitive to disturbances, little is known about their responses to volcanic disturbances, except for colonization of lava. We examined lichen community responses through time to different disturbances produced by the May 1, 2008 eruption of Volcan Chaiten in south-central Chile. Pre-eruption vegetation near the volcano was old-growth Valdivian temperate rainforest dominated by closed-canopy Nothofagus sp... In 2012, we installed thirteen 1-acre plots across volcanic disturbance zones on which a time-constrained search was done for all macrolichen species, each of which was assigned an approximate log10 categorical abundance. We also installed a 0.2 m2 quadrat on two representative trees per plot for repeat photography of lichen cover. We remeasured at least one plot per disturbance zone in 2014 and re-photographed tree quadrats in 2013 and 2014. We then analyzed species composition and abundance differences among disturbance zones. In 2012, the blast (pyroclastic density flow), scorch (standing scorched forest at the edge of the blast) and deep tephra (>10 cm) zones had the lowest lichen species richness (5-13 species), followed by reference (unimpacted) and shallow (lichen species since 2012 while the light tephra and reference were essentially unchanged. Gravel rain, gravel rain + pumice and flooded forest plots all had about the same number of species in 2014 as 2012. Lichen colonization and growth in tree quadrats varied widely, from very little colonization in the blast to prolific colonization in the gravel rain + pumice zone. Lichen's varied responses to different volcanic disturbances were attributable to varying degrees of mortality and subsequent availability of substrate, quantity of light and removal of competitors. While sensitive to disturbance, lichens are apparently resilient to and can quickly recolonize after a variety of large, violent volcanic

  1. Ground target geolocation based on digital elevation model for airborne wide-area reconnaissance system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Chuan; Ding, Yalin; Xu, Yongsen; Xiu, Jihong

    2018-01-01

    To obtain the geographical position of the ground target accurately, a geolocation algorithm based on the digital elevation model (DEM) is developed for an airborne wide-area reconnaissance system. According to the platform position and attitude information measured by the airborne position and orientation system and the gimbal angles information from the encoder, the line-of-sight pointing vector in the Earth-centered Earth-fixed coordinate frame is solved by the homogeneous coordinate transformation. The target longitude and latitude can be solved with the elliptical Earth model and the global DEM. The influences of the systematic error and measurement error on ground target geolocation calculation accuracy are analyzed by the Monte Carlo method. The simulation results show that this algorithm can improve the geolocation accuracy of ground target in rough terrain area obviously. The geolocation accuracy of moving ground target can be improved by moving average filtering (MAF). The validity of the geolocation algorithm is verified by the flight test in which the plane flies at a geodetic height of 15,000 m and the outer gimbal angle is <47°. The geolocation root mean square error of the target trajectory is <45 and <7 m after MAF.

  2. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  3. A family of hyperelastic models for human brain tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, L. Angela; Budday, Silvia; Holzapfel, Gerhard A.; Kuhl, Ellen; Goriely, Alain

    2017-09-01

    Experiments on brain samples under multiaxial loading have shown that human brain tissue is both extremely soft when compared to other biological tissues and characterized by a peculiar elastic response under combined shear and compression/tension: there is a significant increase in shear stress with increasing axial compression compared to a moderate increase with increasing axial tension. Recent studies have revealed that many widely used constitutive models for soft biological tissues fail to capture this characteristic response. Here, guided by experiments of human brain tissue, we develop a family of modeling approaches that capture the elasticity of brain tissue under varying simple shear superposed on varying axial stretch by exploiting key observations about the behavior of the nonlinear shear modulus, which can be obtained directly from the experimental data.

  4. Varying parameter models to accommodate dynamic promotion effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic effects of sales promotions. We create dynamic brand sales models (for weekly store-level scanner data) by relating store intercepts and a brand's own price elasticity to a measure of the cumulated previous price discounts - amount and time - for

  5. Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

  6. Towards artificial intelligence based diesel engine performance control under varying operating conditions using support vector regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naradasu Kumar Ravi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Diesel engine designers are constantly on the look-out for performance enhancement through efficient control of operating parameters. In this paper, the concept of an intelligent engine control system is proposed that seeks to ensure optimized performance under varying operating conditions. The concept is based on arriving at the optimum engine operating parameters to ensure the desired output in terms of efficiency. In addition, a Support Vector Machines based prediction model has been developed to predict the engine performance under varying operating conditions. Experiments were carried out at varying loads, compression ratios and amounts of exhaust gas recirculation using a variable compression ratio diesel engine for data acquisition. It was observed that the SVM model was able to predict the engine performance accurately.

  7. Linking the fractional derivative and the Lomnitz creep law to non-Newtonian time-varying viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Vikash; Holm, Sverre

    2016-09-01

    Many of the most interesting complex media are non-Newtonian and exhibit time-dependent behavior of thixotropy and rheopecty. They may also have temporal responses described by power laws. The material behavior is represented by the relaxation modulus and the creep compliance. On the one hand, it is shown that in the special case of a Maxwell model characterized by a linearly time-varying viscosity, the medium's relaxation modulus is a power law which is similar to that of a fractional derivative element often called a springpot. On the other hand, the creep compliance of the time-varying Maxwell model is identified as Lomnitz's logarithmic creep law, making this possibly its first direct derivation. In this way both fractional derivatives and Lomnitz's creep law are linked to time-varying viscosity. A mechanism which yields fractional viscoelasticity and logarithmic creep behavior has therefore been found. Further, as a result of this linking, the curve-fitting parameters involved in the fractional viscoelastic modeling, and the Lomnitz law gain physical interpretation.

  8. Time varying determinants of bond flows to emerging markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasemin Erduman

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the time varying nature of the determinants of bond flows with a focus on the global financial crisis period. We estimate a time varying regression model using Bayesian estimation methods, where the posterior distribution is approximated by Gibbs sampling algorithm. Our findings suggest that the interest rate differential is the most significant pull factor of portfolio bond flows, along with the inflation rate, while the growth rate does not play a significant role. Among the push factors, global liquidity is the most important driver of bond flows. It matters the most, when unconventional monetary easing policies were first announced; and its importance as a determinant of portfolio bond flows decreases over time, starting with the Eurozone crisis, and diminishes with the tapering talk. Global risk appetite and the risk perception towards the emerging countries also have relatively small and stable significant effects on bond flows.

  9. Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

  10. Organic carbon recovery modeling for a rotating belt filter and its impact assessment on a plant-wide scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Behera, Chitta Ranjan; Santoro, Domenico; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we perform a systematic plant-wide assessment of the organic carbon recovery concept on wastewater treatment plants by an advanced cellulose recovery enabling technology called rotating belt filter (RBF). To this end, first, an empirical model is developed to describe organic carbon...... recovery by the RBF, which is then used for the plant-wide performance evaluation to further understand the impact of organic carbon recovery by framing four different scenarios. The key features of the scenario analysis are: (i) an RBF operating with thick mat increases methane production (around 10...... %) and brings down aeration energy demand (by 8 %) compared to the primary clarifier (PC) and, (ii) the sludge retention time (SRT) of the activated sludge (AS) tank increases by 55 % when an RBF runs with thick mat and therefore promotes higher nitrification rate, (iii) organic carbon recovery by the RBF does...

  11. Spacetime-varying couplings and Lorentz violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostelecky, V. Alan; Lehnert, Ralf; Perry, Malcolm J.

    2003-01-01

    Spacetime-varying coupling constants can be associated with violations of local Lorentz invariance and CPT symmetry. An analytical supergravity cosmology with a time-varying fine-structure constant provides an explicit example. Estimates are made for some experimental constraints

  12. A Unified Model for BDS Wide Area and Local Area Augmentation Positioning Based on Raw Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Tu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a unified model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS wide area and local area augmentation positioning based on raw observations has been proposed. Applying this model, both the Real-Time Kinematic (RTK and Precise Point Positioning (PPP service can be realized by performing different corrections at the user end. This algorithm was assessed and validated with the BDS data collected at four regional stations from Day of Year (DOY 080 to 083 of 2016. When the users are located within the local reference network, the fast and high precision RTK service can be achieved using the regional observation corrections, revealing a convergence time of about several seconds and a precision of about 2–3 cm. For the users out of the regional reference network, the global broadcast State-Space Represented (SSR corrections can be utilized to realize the global PPP service which shows a convergence time of about 25 min for achieving an accuracy of 10 cm. With this unified model, it can not only integrate the Network RTK (NRTK and PPP into a seamless positioning service, but also recover the ionosphere Vertical Total Electronic Content (VTEC and Differential Code Bias (DCB values that are useful for the ionosphere monitoring and modeling.

  13. Pattern formation in individual-based systems with time-varying parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2013-12-01

    We study the patterns generated in finite-time sweeps across symmetry-breaking bifurcations in individual-based models. Similar to the well-known Kibble-Zurek scenario of defect formation, large-scale patterns are generated when model parameters are varied slowly, whereas fast sweeps produce a large number of small domains. The symmetry breaking is triggered by intrinsic noise, originating from the discrete dynamics at the microlevel. Based on a linear-noise approximation, we calculate the characteristic length scale of these patterns. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach in a simple model of opinion dynamics, a model in evolutionary game theory with a time-dependent fitness structure, and a model of cell differentiation. Our theoretical estimates are confirmed in simulations. In further numerical work, we observe a similar phenomenon when the symmetry-breaking bifurcation is triggered by population growth.

  14. Efficient genome-wide association in biobanks using topic modeling identifies multiple novel disease loci.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Snapper, Leslie A; Hart, Kamber L; Perlis, Roy H

    2017-08-31

    Biobanks and national registries represent a powerful tool for genomic discovery, but rely on diagnostic codes that may be unreliable and fail to capture the relationship between related diagnoses. We developed an efficient means of conducting genome-wide association studies using combinations of diagnostic codes from electronic health records (EHR) for 10845 participants in a biobanking program at two large academic medical centers. Specifically, we applied latent Dirichilet allocation to fit 50 disease topics based on diagnostic codes, then conducted genome-wide common-variant association for each topic. In sensitivity analysis, these results were contrasted with those obtained from traditional single-diagnosis phenome-wide association analysis, as well as those in which only a subset of diagnostic codes are included per topic. In meta-analysis across three biobank cohorts, we identified 23 disease-associated loci with p<1e-15, including previously associated autoimmune disease loci. In all cases, observed significant associations were of greater magnitude than for single phenome-wide diagnostic codes, and incorporation of less strongly-loading diagnostic codes enhanced association. This strategy provides a more efficient means of phenome-wide association in biobanks with coded clinical data.

  15. Parametric output-only identification of time-varying structures using a kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhi-Sai; Liu, Li; Zhou, Si-Da; Yu, Lei; Naets, Frank; Heylen, Ward; Desmet, Wim

    2018-01-01

    The problem of parametric output-only identification of time-varying structures in a recursive manner is considered. A kernelized time-dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA) model is proposed by expanding the time-varying model parameters onto the basis set of kernel functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. An exponentially weighted kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA identification scheme is proposed, and a sliding-window technique is subsequently applied to fix the computational complexity for each consecutive update, allowing the method to operate online in time-varying environments. The proposed sliding-window exponentially weighted kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA method is employed for the identification of a laboratory time-varying structure consisting of a simply supported beam and a moving mass sliding on it. The proposed method is comparatively assessed against an existing recursive pseudo-linear regression TARMA method via Monte Carlo experiments and shown to be capable of accurately tracking the time-varying dynamics. Furthermore, the comparisons demonstrate the superior achievable accuracy, lower computational complexity and enhanced online identification capability of the proposed kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA approach.

  16. Nonlinear radiation transport problems involving widely varying mean free paths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapline, G. Jr.; Wood, L.

    1976-01-01

    In this report a method is given for modifying the Monte-Carlo approach so that one can accurately treat problems that involve both large and small mean free paths. This method purports to offer the advantages of the general Monte Carlo technique as far as relatively great accuracy of simulation of microscopic physical phenomena is concerned, and the advantage of a diffusion theory approach as far as decent time steps in thick problems are concerned; it does suffer from something of the statistical fluctuation problems of the Monte Carlo, although in analytically attenuated and modified form

  17. Orphan Basin crustal structure from a dense wide-angle seismic profile - Tomographic inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watremez, Louise; Lau, K. W. Helen; Nedimović, Mladen R.; Louden, Keith E.; Karner, Garry D.

    2014-05-01

    Orphan Basin is located on the eastern margin of Canada, offshore of Newfoundland and East of Flemish Cap. It is an aborted continental rift formed by multiple episodes of rifting. The crustal structure across the basin has been determined by an earlier refraction study using 15 instruments on a 550 km long line. It shows that the continental crust was extended over an unusually wide region but did not break apart. The crustal structure of the basin thus documents stages in the formation of a magma-poor rifted margin up to crustal breakup. The OBWAVE (Orphan Basin Wide-Angle Velocity Experiment) survey was carried out to image crustal structures across the basin and better understand the processes of formation of this margin. The spacing of the 89 recording stations varies from 3 to 5 km along this 500-km-long line, which was acquired along a pre-existing reflection line. The highest resolution section corresponds to the part of the profile where the crust was expected to be the thinnest. We present the results from a joint tomography inversion of first and Moho reflected arrival times. The high data density allows us to define crustal structures with greater detail than for typical studies and to improve the understanding of the processes leading to the extreme stretching of continental crust. The final model was computed following a detailed parametric study to determine the optimal parameters controlling the ray-tracing and the inversion processes. The final model shows very good resolution. In particular, Monte Carlo standard deviations of crustal velocities and Moho depths are generally Orphan Basin is the result of rifting of a non-homogeneous Avalon terrane where the lower crust is primarily ductile.

  18. Scale effects on spatially varying relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yanwei; Guo, Qinghai; Liu, Jian; Wang, Run

    2014-08-01

    Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.

  19. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picone, Rico A.R., E-mail: rpicone@stmartin.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Garbini, Joseph L. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle (United States); Sidles, John A. [Department of Orthopædics, University of Washington, Seattle (United States)

    2015-01-15

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  20. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picone, Rico A.R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]). - Highlights: • A framework for modeling the transport of conserved magnetic and thermodynamic quantities in any spatial configuration. • A thermodynamically grounded model of spin magnetization transport valid in new regimes, including high-polarization. • Analysis of the separative quality of

  1. New activity-based funding model for Australian private sector overnight rehabilitation cases: the rehabilitation Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient (AN-SNAP) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanning, Brian; Predl, Nicolle

    2015-09-01

    Traditional overnight rehabilitation payment models in the private sector are not based on a rigorous classification system and vary greatly between contracts with no consideration of patient complexity. The payment rates are not based on relative cost and the length-of-stay (LOS) point at which a reduced rate applies (step downs) varies markedly. The rehabilitation Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient (AN-SNAP) model (RAM), which has been in place for over 2 years in some private hospitals, bases payment on a rigorous classification system, relative cost and industry LOS. RAM is in the process of being rolled out more widely. This paper compares and contrasts RAM with traditional overnight rehabilitation payment models. It considers the advantages of RAM for hospitals and Australian Health Service Alliance. It also considers payment model changes in the context of maintaining industry consistency with Electronic Claims Lodgement and Information Processing System Environment (ECLIPSE) and health reform generally.

  2. Consumer acceptance of model soup system with varying levels of herbs and salt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Lee, Youngsoo; Lee, Soo-Yeun

    2014-10-01

    Although herbs have been reported as one of the most common saltiness enhancers, few studies have focused on the effect of herbs on reducing added sodium as well as the impact of herbs on consumers' overall liking of foods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the effect of varying levels of herbs on reducing added sodium and consumers' overall liking of soups and identify the impact of salt levels on consumers' overall liking of soups. Overall liking of freshly prepared and retorted canned soups with varying levels of herbs was evaluated before and after adding salt by consumers ad libitum until the saltiness of the soup was just about right for them. The results of the study demonstrated that when the perceived herb flavor increased, the amount of salt consumers added to fresh soups decreased (P ≤ 0.006); however, consumers' overall liking decreased (P ≤ 0.013) as well for the highest level of herb tested in the study. Although overall liking of all canned soups was not significantly decreased by herbs, the amount of salt consumers added was also not significantly decreased when herbs were used. Overall liking of all soups significantly increased after more salt was added (P ≤ 0.001), which indicates that salt level was a dominant factor in affecting consumers' overall liking of soups with varying levels of herbs. These findings imply the role of herbs in decreasing salt intake, and the adequate amount of herbs to be added in soup systems. It is challenging for the food industry to reduce sodium in foods without fully understanding the impact of sodium reduction on sensory properties of foods. Herbs are recommended to use in reducing sodium; however, little has been reported regarding the effect of herbs on sodium reduction and how herbs influence consumers’ acceptance of foods. This study provides findings that herbs may aid in decreasing the amount of salt consumers need to add for freshly prepared soups. It was also found that high

  3. A varying-coefficient method for analyzing longitudinal clinical trials data with nonignorable dropout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forster, Jeri E.; MaWhinney, Samantha; Ball, Erika L.; Fairclough, Diane

    2011-01-01

    Dropout is common in longitudinal clinical trials and when the probability of dropout depends on unobserved outcomes even after conditioning on available data, it is considered missing not at random and therefore nonignorable. To address this problem, mixture models can be used to account for the relationship between a longitudinal outcome and dropout. We propose a Natural Spline Varying-coefficient mixture model (NSV), which is a straightforward extension of the parametric Conditional Linear Model (CLM). We assume that the outcome follows a varying-coefficient model conditional on a continuous dropout distribution. Natural cubic B-splines are used to allow the regression coefficients to semiparametrically depend on dropout and inference is therefore more robust. Additionally, this method is computationally stable and relatively simple to implement. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate performance and compare methodologies in settings where the longitudinal trajectories are linear and dropout time is observed for all individuals. Performance is assessed under conditions where model assumptions are both met and violated. In addition, we compare the NSV to the CLM and a standard random-effects model using an HIV/AIDS clinical trial with probable nonignorable dropout. The simulation studies suggest that the NSV is an improvement over the CLM when dropout has a nonlinear dependence on the outcome. PMID:22101223

  4. So Wide a Web, So Little Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConville, David; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Discusses new trends in the World Wide Web. Highlights include multimedia; digitized audio-visual files; compression technology; telephony; virtual reality modeling language (VRML); open architecture; and advantages of Java, an object-oriented programming language, including platform independence, distributed development, and pay-per-use software.…

  5. Time-Varying Periodicity in Intraday Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Thyrsgaard, Martin; Todorov, Viktor

    We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether return volatility exhibits time-varying intraday periodicity using a long time-series of high-frequency data. Our null hypothesis, commonly adopted in work on volatility modeling, is that volatility follows a stationary process combined...... with a constant time-of-day periodic component. We first construct time-of-day volatility estimates and studentize the high-frequency returns with these periodic components. If the intraday volatility periodicity is invariant over time, then the distribution of the studentized returns should be identical across...... with estimating volatility moments through their sample counterparts. Critical values are computed via easy-to-implement simulation. In an empirical application to S&P 500 index returns, we find strong evidence for variation in the intraday volatility pattern driven in part by the current level of volatility...

  6. Supporting Parent Engagement in Programme-Wide Behavioural Intervention Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Katrina P.

    2017-01-01

    Positive behaviour intervention and support (PBIS) models are evolving as an effective means to promote social and emotional competence among young children and address challenging behaviours. This study was designed to gain insights into parental involvement in programme-wide implementation of the "Pyramid" model. Interviews were…

  7. Modeling spin magnetization transport in a spatially varying magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picone, Rico A. R.; Garbini, Joseph L.; Sidles, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for modeling the transport of any number of globally conserved quantities in any spatial configuration and apply it to obtain a model of magnetization transport for spin-systems that is valid in new regimes (including high-polarization). The framework allows an entropy function to define a model that explicitly respects the laws of thermodynamics. Three facets of the model are explored. First, it is expressed as nonlinear partial differential equations that are valid for the new regime of high dipole-energy and polarization. Second, the nonlinear model is explored in the limit of low dipole-energy (semi-linear), from which is derived a physical parameter characterizing separative magnetization transport (SMT). It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for SMT to occur is that the parameter is spatially inhomogeneous. Third, the high spin-temperature (linear) limit is shown to be equivalent to the model of nuclear spin transport of Genack and Redfield (1975) [1]. Differences among the three forms of the model are illustrated by numerical solution with parameters corresponding to a magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM) experiment (Degen et al., 2009 [2]; Kuehn et al., 2008 [3]; Sidles et al., 2003 [4]; Dougherty et al., 2000 [5]). A family of analytic, steady-state solutions to the nonlinear equation is derived and shown to be the spin-temperature analog of the Langevin paramagnetic equation and Curie's law. Finally, we analyze the separative quality of magnetization transport, and a steady-state solution for the magnetization is shown to be compatible with Fenske's separative mass transport equation (Fenske, 1932 [6]).

  8. Wide applicability of high-Tc pairing originating from coexisting wide and incipient narrow bands in quasi-one-dimensional systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Karin; Ogura, Daisuke; Kuroki, Kazuhiko

    2018-01-01

    We study superconductivity in the Hubbard model on various quasi-one-dimensional lattices with coexisting wide and narrow bands originating from multiple sites within a unit cell, where each site corresponds to a single orbital. The systems studied are the two-leg and three-leg ladders, the diamond chain, and the crisscross ladder. These one-dimensional lattices are weakly coupled to form two-dimensional (quasi-one-dimensional) ones, and the fluctuation exchange approximation is adopted to study spin-fluctuation-mediated superconductivity. When one of the bands is perfectly flat and the Fermi level intersecting the wide band is placed in the vicinity of, but not within, the flat band, superconductivity arising from the interband scattering processes is found to be strongly enhanced owing to the combination of the light electron mass of the wide band and the strong pairing interaction due to the large density of states of the flat band. Even when the narrow band has finite bandwidth, the pairing mechanism still works since the edge of the narrow band, due to its large density of states, plays the role of the flat band. The results indicate the wide applicability of the high-Tc pairing mechanism due to coexisting wide and "incipient" narrow bands in quasi-one-dimensional systems.

  9. Seasonality of helminth infection in wild red deer varies between individuals and between parasite taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albery, Gregory F; Kenyon, Fiona; Morris, Alison; Morris, Sean; Nussey, Daniel H; Pemberton, Josephine M

    2018-03-09

    Parasitism in wild mammals can vary according to myriad intrinsic and extrinsic factors, many of which vary seasonally. However, seasonal variation in parasitism is rarely studied using repeated samples from known individuals. Here we used a wild population of individually recognized red deer (Cervus elaphus) on the Isle of Rum to quantify seasonality and intrinsic factors affecting gastrointestinal helminth parasitism over the course of a year. We collected 1020 non-invasive faecal samples from 328 known individuals which we then analysed for propagules of three helminth taxa: strongyle nematodes, the common liver fluke Fasciola hepatica and the tissue nematode Elaphostrongylus cervi. Zero-inflated Poisson models were used to investigate how season, age and sex were associated with parasite prevalence and count intensity, while Poisson models were used to quantify individual repeatability within and between sampling seasons. Parasite intensity and prevalence varied according to all investigated factors, with opposing seasonality, age profiles and sex biases between parasite taxa. Repeatability was moderate, decreased between seasons and varied between parasites; both F. hepatica and E. cervi showed significant between-season repeatability, while strongyle nematode counts were only repeatable within-season and showed no repeatability within individuals across the year.

  10. The extinction probability in systems randomly varying in time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imre Pázsit

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The extinction probability of a branching process (a neutron chain in a multiplying medium is calculated for a system randomly varying in time. The evolution of the first two moments of such a process was calculated previously by the authors in a system randomly shifting between two states of different multiplication properties. The same model is used here for the investigation of the extinction probability. It is seen that the determination of the extinction probability is significantly more complicated than that of the moments, and it can only be achieved by pure numerical methods. The numerical results indicate that for systems fluctuating between two subcritical or two supercritical states, the extinction probability behaves as expected, but for systems fluctuating between a supercritical and a subcritical state, there is a crucial and unexpected deviation from the predicted behaviour. The results bear some significance not only for neutron chains in a multiplying medium, but also for the evolution of biological populations in a time-varying environment.

  11. Controversy in the allometric application of fixed- versus varying-exponent models: a statistical and mathematical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Huadong; Hussain, Azher; Leal, Mauricio; Fluhler, Eric; Mayersohn, Michael

    2011-02-01

    This commentary is a reply to a recent article by Mahmood commenting on the authors' article on the use of fixed-exponent allometry in predicting human clearance. The commentary discusses eight issues that are related to criticisms made in Mahmood's article and examines the controversies (fixed-exponent vs. varying-exponent allometry) from the perspective of statistics and mathematics. The key conclusion is that any allometric method, which is to establish a power function based on a limited number of animal species and to extrapolate the resulting power function to human values (varying-exponent allometry), is infused with fundamental statistical errors. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  12. Habitat Modeling of Alien Plant Species at Varying Levels of Occupancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A. Brown

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Distribution models of invasive plants are very useful tools for conservation management. There are challenges in modeling expanding populations, especially in a dynamic environment, and when data are limited. In this paper, predictive habitat models were assessed for three invasive plant species, at differing levels of occurrence, using two different habitat modeling techniques: logistic regression and maximum entropy. The influence of disturbance, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and other landscape characteristics is assessed by creating regional level models based on occurrence records from the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis database. Logistic regression and maximum entropy models were assessed independently. Ensemble models were developed to combine the predictions of the two analysis approaches to obtain a more robust prediction estimate. All species had strong models with Area Under the receiver operator Curve (AUC of >0.75. The species with the highest occurrence, Ligustrum spp., had the greatest agreement between the models (93%. Lolium arundinaceum had the most disagreement between models at 33% and the lowest AUC values. Overall, the strength of integrative modeling in assessing and understanding habitat modeling was demonstrated.

  13. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2016-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a 'Starkrimson' × 'Granny Smith' cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility of

  14. On the potential of models for location and scale for genome-wide DNA methylation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Simone; Fenske, Nora; Zeilinger, Sonja; Suhre, Karsten; Gieger, Christian; Waldenberger, Melanie; Grallert, Harald; Schmid, Matthias

    2014-07-03

    With the help of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS), increasing knowledge on the role of epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation in disease processes is obtained. In addition, EWAS aid the understanding of behavioral and environmental effects on DNA methylation. In terms of statistical analysis, specific challenges arise from the characteristics of methylation data. First, methylation β-values represent proportions with skewed and heteroscedastic distributions. Thus, traditional modeling strategies assuming a normally distributed response might not be appropriate. Second, recent evidence suggests that not only mean differences but also variability in site-specific DNA methylation associates with diseases, including cancer. The purpose of this study was to compare different modeling strategies for methylation data in terms of model performance and performance of downstream hypothesis tests. Specifically, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to compare beta regression with Gaussian regression on raw, binary logit and arcsine square root transformed methylation data, with and without modeling a covariate effect on the scale parameter. Using simulated and real data from a large population-based study and an independent sample of cancer patients and healthy controls, we show that beta regression does not outperform competing strategies in terms of model performance. In addition, Gaussian models for location and scale showed an improved performance as compared to models for location only. The best performance was observed for the Gaussian model on binary logit transformed β-values, referred to as M-values. Our results further suggest that models for location and scale are specifically sensitive towards violations of the distribution assumption and towards outliers in the methylation data. Therefore, a resampling procedure is proposed as a mode of inference and shown to diminish type I error rate in

  15. A plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations and ion speciation/pairing in wastewater treatment process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Solon, Kimberly; Vrecko, Darko; Tait, Stephan; Batstone, Damien J; Jeppsson, Ulf; Gernaey, Krist V

    2015-11-15

    There is a growing interest within the Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) modelling community to correctly describe physico-chemical processes after many years of mainly focusing on biokinetics. Indeed, future modelling needs, such as a plant-wide phosphorus (P) description, require a major, but unavoidable, additional degree of complexity when representing cationic/anionic behaviour in Activated Sludge (AS)/Anaerobic Digestion (AD) systems. In this paper, a plant-wide aqueous phase chemistry module describing pH variations plus ion speciation/pairing is presented and interfaced with industry standard models. The module accounts for extensive consideration of non-ideality, including ion activities instead of molar concentrations and complex ion pairing. The general equilibria are formulated as a set of Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) instead of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) in order to reduce the overall stiffness of the system, thereby enhancing simulation speed. Additionally, a multi-dimensional version of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to handle the existing multiple algebraic inter-dependencies. The latter is reinforced with the Simulated Annealing method to increase the robustness of the solver making the system not so dependent of the initial conditions. Simulation results show pH predictions when describing Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) by the activated sludge models (ASM) 1, 2d and 3 comparing the performance of a nitrogen removal (WWTP1) and a combined nitrogen and phosphorus removal (WWTP2) treatment plant configuration under different anaerobic/anoxic/aerobic conditions. The same framework is implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2) version of the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) (WWTP3) as well, predicting pH values at different cationic/anionic loads. In this way, the general applicability/flexibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated, by implementing the aqueous phase chemistry module in some

  16. Mind the gaps: a state-space model for analysing the dynamics of North Sea herring spawning components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Payne, Mark

    2010-01-01

    the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual...

  17. Path coefficient analysis of zinc dynamics in varying soil environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rattan, R.K.; Phung, C.V.; Singhal, S.K.; Deb, D.L.; Singh, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    Influence of soil properties on labile zinc, as measured by diethylene-triamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA) and zinc-65, and self-diffusion coefficients of zinc was assessed on 22 surface soil samples varying widely in their characteristics following linear regression and path coefficient analysis techniques. DTPA extractable zinc could be predicted from organic carbon status and pH of the soil with a highly significant coefficient of determination (R 2 =0.84 ** ). Ninety seven per cent variation in isotopically exchangeable zinc was explained by pH, clay content and cation exchange capacity (CEC) of soil. The self-diffusion coefficients (DaZn and DpZn) and buffer power of zinc exhibited exponential relationship with soil properties, pH being the most dominant one. Soil properties like organic matter, clay content etc. exhibited indirect effects on zinc diffusion rates via pH only. (author). 13 refs., 6 tabs

  18. Comparing the performance of 11 crop simulation models in predicting yield response to nitrogen fertilization

    OpenAIRE

    Salo , Tapio J.; Palosuo , Taru; Kersebaum , Kurt Christian; Nendel , Claas; Angulo , Carlos; Ewert , Frank; Bindi , Marco; Calanca , Pierluigi; Klein , Tommy; Moriondo , Marco; Ferrise , Roberto; Olesen , Jørgen Eivind; Patil , Rasmi H.; Ruget , Francoise; Takac , Jozef

    2016-01-01

    Eleven widely used crop simulation models (APSIM, CERES, CROPSYST, COUP, DAISY, EPIC, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) were tested using spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) data set under varying nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates from three experimental years in the boreal climate of Jokioinen, Finland. This is the largest standardized crop model inter-comparison under different levels of N supply to date. The models were calibrated using data from 2002 and 2008, of which 2008 included si...

  19. Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R.; Herrgard, Markus

    2013-01-01

    associated with the development and implementation of a su stainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow......With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes...... models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process...

  20. Event-driven control of a speed varying digital displacement machine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Henrik; Johansen, Per; Andersen, Torben O.

    2017-01-01

    . The controller synthesis is carried out as a discrete optimal deterministic problem with full state feedback. Based on a linear analysis of the feedback control system, stability is proven in a pre-specified operation region. Simulation of a non-linear evaluation model with the controller implemented shows great...... be treated as a Discrete Linear Time Invariant control problem with synchronous sampling rate. To make synchronous linear control theory applicable for a variable speed digital displacement machine, a method based on event-driven control is presented. Using this method, the time domain differential equations...... are converted into the spatial (position) domain to obtain a constant sampling rate and thus allowing for use of classical control theory. The method is applied to a down scaled digital fluid power motor, where the motor speed is controlled at varying references under varying pressure and load torque conditions...

  1. Noncognitive Factors in an Elementary School-Wide Arts Integrated Model

    OpenAIRE

    Simpson Steele, Jamie

    2016-01-01

    Pomaika‘i Elementary School has answered a call to improve education by providing content instruction through the arts. How does school wide arts integration in an elementary setting support students as they transition to middle school? This bounded case study examines the experiences of eight families through a series of interviews with students, parents, and teachers. It describes and explains learning through the arts within three overarching noncognitive factors: a) academic mindsets, or ...

  2. Intelligibility and Clarity of Reverberant Speech: Effects of Wide Dynamic Range Compression Release Time and Working Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhart, Paul N.; Souza, Pamela E.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of varying wide dynamic range compression (WDRC) release time on intelligibility and clarity of reverberant speech. The study also considered the role of individual working memory. Method: Thirty older listeners with mild to moderately-severe sloping sensorineural hearing loss…

  3. Study of selected phenotype switching strategies in time varying environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horvath, Denis, E-mail: horvath.denis@gmail.com [Centre of Interdisciplinary Biosciences, Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, P.J. Šafárik University in Košice, Jesenná 5, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia); Brutovsky, Branislav, E-mail: branislav.brutovsky@upjs.sk [Department of Biophysics, Institute of Physics, P.J. Šafárik University in Košice, Jesenná 5, 040 01 Košice (Slovakia)

    2016-03-22

    Population heterogeneity plays an important role across many research, as well as the real-world, problems. The population heterogeneity relates to the ability of a population to cope with an environment change (or uncertainty) preventing its extinction. However, this ability is not always desirable as can be exemplified by an intratumor heterogeneity which positively correlates with the development of resistance to therapy. Causation of population heterogeneity is therefore in biology and medicine an intensively studied topic. In this paper the evolution of a specific strategy of population diversification, the phenotype switching, is studied at a conceptual level. The presented simulation model studies evolution of a large population of asexual organisms in a time-varying environment represented by a stochastic Markov process. Each organism disposes with a stochastic or nonlinear deterministic switching strategy realized by discrete-time models with evolvable parameters. We demonstrate that under rapidly varying exogenous conditions organisms operate in the vicinity of the bet-hedging strategy, while the deterministic patterns become relevant as the environmental variations are less frequent. Statistical characterization of the steady state regimes of the populations is done using the Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler functional distances and the Hamming distance. - Highlights: • Relation between phenotype switching and environment is studied. • The Markov chain Monte Carlo based model is developed. • Stochastic and deterministic strategies of phenotype switching are utilized. • Statistical measures of the dynamic heterogeneity reveal universal properties. • The results extend to higher lattice dimensions.

  4. Study of selected phenotype switching strategies in time varying environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvath, Denis; Brutovsky, Branislav

    2016-01-01

    Population heterogeneity plays an important role across many research, as well as the real-world, problems. The population heterogeneity relates to the ability of a population to cope with an environment change (or uncertainty) preventing its extinction. However, this ability is not always desirable as can be exemplified by an intratumor heterogeneity which positively correlates with the development of resistance to therapy. Causation of population heterogeneity is therefore in biology and medicine an intensively studied topic. In this paper the evolution of a specific strategy of population diversification, the phenotype switching, is studied at a conceptual level. The presented simulation model studies evolution of a large population of asexual organisms in a time-varying environment represented by a stochastic Markov process. Each organism disposes with a stochastic or nonlinear deterministic switching strategy realized by discrete-time models with evolvable parameters. We demonstrate that under rapidly varying exogenous conditions organisms operate in the vicinity of the bet-hedging strategy, while the deterministic patterns become relevant as the environmental variations are less frequent. Statistical characterization of the steady state regimes of the populations is done using the Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler functional distances and the Hamming distance. - Highlights: • Relation between phenotype switching and environment is studied. • The Markov chain Monte Carlo based model is developed. • Stochastic and deterministic strategies of phenotype switching are utilized. • Statistical measures of the dynamic heterogeneity reveal universal properties. • The results extend to higher lattice dimensions.

  5. Genome-wide significant localization for working and spatial memory: Identifying genes for psychosis using models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Emma E M; Carless, Melanie A; de Almeida, Marcio A A; Curran, Joanne E; McKay, D Reese; Sprooten, Emma; Dyer, Thomas D; Göring, Harald H; Olvera, Rene; Fox, Peter; Almasy, Laura; Duggirala, Ravi; Kent, Jack W; Blangero, John; Glahn, David C

    2014-01-01

    It is well established that risk for developing psychosis is largely mediated by the influence of genes, but identifying precisely which genes underlie that risk has been problematic. Focusing on endophenotypes, rather than illness risk, is one solution to this problem. Impaired cognition is a well-established endophenotype of psychosis. Here we aimed to characterize the genetic architecture of cognition using phenotypically detailed models as opposed to relying on general IQ or individual neuropsychological measures. In so doing we hoped to identify genes that mediate cognitive ability, which might also contribute to psychosis risk. Hierarchical factor models of genetically clustered cognitive traits were subjected to linkage analysis followed by QTL region-specific association analyses in a sample of 1,269 Mexican American individuals from extended pedigrees. We identified four genome wide significant QTLs, two for working and two for spatial memory, and a number of plausible and interesting candidate genes. The creation of detailed models of cognition seemingly enhanced the power to detect genetic effects on cognition and provided a number of possible candidate genes for psychosis. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Validation of a Monte Carlo model used for simulating tube current modulation in computed tomography over a wide range of phantom conditions/challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bostani, Maryam, E-mail: mbostani@mednet.ucla.edu; McMillan, Kyle; Cagnon, Chris H.; McNitt-Gray, Michael F. [Departments of Biomedical Physics and Radiology, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90024 (United States); DeMarco, John J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Purpose: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation methods have been widely used in patient dosimetry in computed tomography (CT), including estimating patient organ doses. However, most simulation methods have undergone a limited set of validations, often using homogeneous phantoms with simple geometries. As clinical scanning has become more complex and the use of tube current modulation (TCM) has become pervasive in the clinic, MC simulations should include these techniques in their methodologies and therefore should also be validated using a variety of phantoms with different shapes and material compositions to result in a variety of differently modulated tube current profiles. The purpose of this work is to perform the measurements and simulations to validate a Monte Carlo model under a variety of test conditions where fixed tube current (FTC) and TCM were used. Methods: A previously developed MC model for estimating dose from CT scans that models TCM, built using the platform of MCNPX, was used for CT dose quantification. In order to validate the suitability of this model to accurately simulate patient dose from FTC and TCM CT scan, measurements and simulations were compared over a wide range of conditions. Phantoms used for testing range from simple geometries with homogeneous composition (16 and 32 cm computed tomography dose index phantoms) to more complex phantoms including a rectangular homogeneous water equivalent phantom, an elliptical shaped phantom with three sections (where each section was a homogeneous, but different material), and a heterogeneous, complex geometry anthropomorphic phantom. Each phantom requires varying levels of x-, y- and z-modulation. Each phantom was scanned on a multidetector row CT (Sensation 64) scanner under the conditions of both FTC and TCM. Dose measurements were made at various surface and depth positions within each phantom. Simulations using each phantom were performed for FTC, detailed x–y–z TCM, and z-axis-only TCM to obtain

  7. Compensating Unknown Time-Varying Delay in Opto-Electronic Platform Tracking Servo System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruihong Xie

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of compensating miss-distance delay in opto-electronic platform tracking servo system. According to the characteristic of LOS (light-of-sight motion, we setup the Markovian process model and compensate this unknown time-varying delay by feed-forward forecasting controller based on robust H∞ control. Finally, simulation based on double closed-loop PI (Proportion Integration control system indicates that the proposed method is effective for compensating unknown time-varying delay. Tracking experiments on the opto-electronic platform indicate that RMS (root-mean-square error is 1.253 mrad when tracking 10° 0.2 Hz signal.

  8. To sing or not to sing: seasonal changes in singing vary with personality in wild great tits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naguib, M.; van Rooij, E.P.; Snijders, L.; van Oers, K.

    Expression of sexually selected signals in many species varies over time of day and season. A key model system to study this variation in signal expression is birdsong. Yet, despite good ecological understanding of why song varies across time of day and season, much of the individual variation

  9. Modeling the internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeleznik, F. J.; Mcbride, B. J.

    1985-01-01

    A flexible and computationally economical model of the internal combustion engine was developed for use on large digital computer systems. It is based on a system of ordinary differential equations for cylinder-averaged properties. The computer program is capable of multicycle calculations, with some parameters varying from cycle to cycle, and has restart capabilities. It can accommodate a broad spectrum of reactants, permits changes in physical properties, and offers a wide selection of alternative modeling functions without any reprogramming. It readily adapts to the amount of information available in a particular case because the model is in fact a hierarchy of five models. The models range from a simple model requiring only thermodynamic properties to a complex model demanding full combustion kinetics, transport properties, and poppet valve flow characteristics. Among its many features the model includes heat transfer, valve timing, supercharging, motoring, finite burning rates, cycle-to-cycle variations in air-fuel ratio, humid air, residual and recirculated exhaust gas, and full combustion kinetics.

  10. Nonlinearly Activated Neural Network for Solving Time-Varying Complex Sylvester Equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuai; Li, Yangming

    2013-10-28

    The Sylvester equation is often encountered in mathematics and control theory. For the general time-invariant Sylvester equation problem, which is defined in the domain of complex numbers, the Bartels-Stewart algorithm and its extensions are effective and widely used with an O(n³) time complexity. When applied to solving the time-varying Sylvester equation, the computation burden increases intensively with the decrease of sampling period and cannot satisfy continuous realtime calculation requirements. For the special case of the general Sylvester equation problem defined in the domain of real numbers, gradient-based recurrent neural networks are able to solve the time-varying Sylvester equation in real time, but there always exists an estimation error while a recently proposed recurrent neural network by Zhang et al [this type of neural network is called Zhang neural network (ZNN)] converges to the solution ideally. The advancements in complex-valued neural networks cast light to extend the existing real-valued ZNN for solving the time-varying real-valued Sylvester equation to its counterpart in the domain of complex numbers. In this paper, a complex-valued ZNN for solving the complex-valued Sylvester equation problem is investigated and the global convergence of the neural network is proven with the proposed nonlinear complex-valued activation functions. Moreover, a special type of activation function with a core function, called sign-bi-power function, is proven to enable the ZNN to converge in finite time, which further enhances its advantage in online processing. In this case, the upper bound of the convergence time is also derived analytically. Simulations are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the neural network with different parameters and activation functions. Both theoretical analysis and numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. A comparison of image restoration approaches applied to three-dimensional confocal and wide-field fluorescence microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verveer, P. J; Gemkow, M. J; Jovin, T. M

    1999-01-01

    We have compared different image restoration approaches for fluorescence microscopy. The most widely used algorithms were classified with a Bayesian theory according to the assumed noise model and the type of regularization imposed. We considered both Gaussian and Poisson models for the noise in combination with Tikhonov regularization, entropy regularization, Good's roughness and without regularization (maximum likelihood estimation). Simulations of fluorescence confocal imaging were used to examine the different noise models and regularization approaches using the mean squared error criterion. The assumption of a Gaussian noise model yielded only slightly higher errors than the Poisson model. Good's roughness was the best choice for the regularization. Furthermore, we compared simulated confocal and wide-field data. In general, restored confocal data are superior to restored wide-field data, but given sufficient higher signal level for the wide-field data the restoration result may rival confocal data in quality. Finally, a visual comparison of experimental confocal and wide-field data is presented.

  12. Combined risk assessment of nonstationary monthly water quality based on Markov chain and time-varying copula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Wei; Xia, Jun

    2017-02-01

    Water quality risk management is a global hot research linkage with the sustainable water resource development. Ammonium nitrogen (NH 3 -N) and permanganate index (COD Mn ) as the focus indicators in Huai River Basin, are selected to reveal their joint transition laws based on Markov theory. The time-varying moments model with either time or land cover index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time-varying marginal distributions of water quality time series. Time-varying copula model, which takes the non-stationarity in the marginal distribution and/or the time variation in dependence structure between water quality series into consideration, is constructed to describe a bivariate frequency analysis for NH 3 -N and COD Mn series at the same monitoring gauge. The larger first-order Markov joint transition probability indicates water quality state Class V w , Class IV and Class III will occur easily in the water body of Bengbu Sluice. Both marginal distribution and copula models are nonstationary, and the explanatory variable time yields better performance than land cover index in describing the non-stationarities in the marginal distributions. In modelling the dependence structure changes, time-varying copula has a better fitting performance than the copula with the constant or the time-trend dependence parameter. The largest synchronous encounter risk probability of NH 3 -N and COD Mn simultaneously reaching Class V is 50.61%, while the asynchronous encounter risk probability is largest when NH 3 -N and COD Mn is inferior to class V and class IV water quality standards, respectively.

  13. Can widely used cell type markers predict the suitability of immortalized or primary mammary epithelial cell models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Corneille Ontsouka

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mammary cell cultures are convenient tools for in vitro studies of mammary gland biology. However, the heterogeneity of mammary cell types, e.g., glandular milk secretory epithelial or myoepithelial cells, often complicates the interpretation of cell-based data. The present study was undertaken to determine the relevance of bovine primary mammary epithelial cells isolated from American Holstein (bMEC US or Swiss Holstein-Friesian (bMEC CH cows, and of primary bovine mammary alveolar epithelial cells stably transfected with simian virus-40 (SV-40 large T-antigen (MAC-T for in vitro analyses. This was evaluated by testing their expression pattern of cytokeratin (CK 7, 18, 19, vimentin, and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA. RESULTS: The expression of the listed markers was assessed using real-time quantitative PCR, flow cytometry and immunofluorescence microscopy. Characteristic markers of the mesenchymal (vimentin, myoepithelial (α-SMA and glandular secretory cells (CKs showed differential expression among the studied cell cultures, partly depending on the analytical method used. The relative mRNA expression of vimentin, CK7 and CK19, respectively, was lower (P < 0.05 in immortalized than in primary mammary cell cultures. The stain index (based on flow cytometry of CK7 and CK19 protein was lower (P < 0.05 in MAC-T than in bMECs, while the expression of α-SMA and CK18 showed an inverse pattern. Immunofluorescence microscopy analysis mostly confirmed the mRNA data, while partly disagreed with flow cytometry data (e.g., vimentin level in MAC-T. The differential expression of CK7 and CK19 allowed discriminating between immortal and primary mammary cultures. CONCLUSIONS: The expression of the selected widely used cell type markers in primary and immortalized MEC cells did not allow a clear preference between these two cell models for in vitro analyses studying aspects of milk composition. All tested cell models exhibited to a variable

  14. Economy-wide Impact of Investment in Road Infrastructure in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study an attempt has been made to examine economy wide impact of investment in road infrastructure using a recursive dynamic CGE model. The study used an updated version of the 2005/06 EDRI Social Accounting Matrix. Simulations with the CGE model confirm that with the increasing availability of road ...

  15. Varied line-space gratings: past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hettrick, M.C.

    1985-08-01

    A classically ruled diffraction grating consists of grooves which are equidistant, straight and parallel. Conversely, the so-called ''holographic'' grating (formed by the interfering waves of coherent visible light), although severely constrained by the recording wavelength and recording geometry, has grooves which are typically neither equidistant, straight nor parallel. In contrast, a varied line-space (VLS) grating, in common nomenclature, is a design in which the groove positions are relatively unconstrained yet possess sufficient symmetry to permit mechanical ruling. Such seemingly exotic gratings are no longer only a theoretical curiosity, but have been ruled and used in a wide variety of applications. These include: (1) aberration-corrected normal incidence concave gratings for Seya-Namioka monochromators and optical de-multiplexers, (2) flat-field grazing incidence concave gratings for plasma diagnostics, (3) aberration-corrected grazing incidence plane gratings for space-borne spectrometers, (4) focusing grazing incidence plane grating for synchrotron radiation monochromators, and (5) wavefront generators for visible interferometry of optical surfaces (particularly aspheres). Future prospects of VLS gratings as dispersing elements, wavefront correctors and beamsplitters appear promising. The author discusses the history of VLS gratings, their present applications, and their potential in the future. 61 refs., 24 figs

  16. Adaptive Synchronization between Two Different Complex Networks with Time-Varying Delay Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jian-Rui, Chen; Li-Cheng, Jiao; Jian-She, Wu; Xiao-Hua, Wang

    2009-01-01

    A new general network model for two complex networks with time-varying delay coupling is presented. Then we investigate its synchronization phenomena. The two complex networks of the model differ in dynamic nodes, the number of nodes and the coupling connections. By using adaptive controllers, a synchronization criterion is derived. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained synchronization criterion. This study may widen the application range of synchronization, such as in chaotic secure communication. (general)

  17. A diffuse radar scattering model from Martian surface rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, W. M.; Jakosky, B. M.; Christensen, P. R.

    1987-01-01

    Remote sensing of Mars has been done with a variety of instrumentation at various wavelengths. Many of these data sets can be reconciled with a surface model of bonded fines (or duricrust) which varies widely across the surface and a surface rock distribution which varies less so. A surface rock distribution map from -60 to +60 deg latitude has been generated by Christensen. Our objective is to model the diffuse component of radar reflection based on this surface distribution of rocks. The diffuse, rather than specular, scattering is modeled because the diffuse component arises due to scattering from rocks with sizes on the order of the wavelength of the radar beam. Scattering for radio waves of 12.5 cm is then indicative of the meter scale and smaller structure of the surface. The specular term is indicative of large scale surface undulations and should not be causally related to other surface physical properties. A simplified model of diffuse scattering is described along with two rock distribution models. The results of applying the models to a planet of uniform fractional rock coverage with values ranging from 5 to 20% are discussed.

  18. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  19. Assumption-free estimation of heritability from genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing between full siblings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The study of continuously varying, quantitative traits is important in evolutionary biology, agriculture, and medicine. Variation in such traits is attributable to many, possibly interacting, genes whose expression may be sensitive to the environment, which makes their dissection into underlying causative factors difficult. An important population parameter for quantitative traits is heritability, the proportion of total variance that is due to genetic factors. Response to artificial and natural selection and the degree of resemblance between relatives are all a function of this parameter. Following the classic paper by R. A. Fisher in 1918, the estimation of additive and dominance genetic variance and heritability in populations is based upon the expected proportion of genes shared between different types of relatives, and explicit, often controversial and untestable models of genetic and non-genetic causes of family resemblance. With genome-wide coverage of genetic markers it is now possible to estimate such parameters solely within families using the actual degree of identity-by-descent sharing between relatives. Using genome scans on 4,401 quasi-independent sib pairs of which 3,375 pairs had phenotypes, we estimated the heritability of height from empirical genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing, which varied from 0.374 to 0.617 (mean 0.498, standard deviation 0.036. The variance in identity-by-descent sharing per chromosome and per genome was consistent with theory. The maximum likelihood estimate of the heritability for height was 0.80 with no evidence for non-genetic causes of sib resemblance, consistent with results from independent twin and family studies but using an entirely separate source of information. Our application shows that it is feasible to estimate genetic variance solely from within-family segregation and provides an independent validation of previously untestable assumptions. Given sufficient data, our new paradigm will

  20. An Improved Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control of Permanent Magnetic Synchronous Motors for a Wide-Speed Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Su

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved continuous-time model predictive control (CTMPC of permanent magnetic synchronous motors (PMSMs for a wide-speed range, including the constant torque region and the flux-weakening (FW region. In the constant torque region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are decoupled without the limitation of DC-link voltage. However, in the FW region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are cross-coupled together with the limitation of DC-link voltage. A nonlinear PMSMs mathematic model in the FW region is presented based on the voltage angle. The solving of the nonlinear mathematic model of PMSMs in FW region will lead to heavy computation load for digital signal processing (DSP. To overcome such a problem, a linearization method of the voltage angle is also proposed to reduce the computation load. The selection of transiting points between the constant torque region and FW regions is researched to improve the performance of the driven system. Compared with the proportional integral (PI controller, the proposed CTMPC has obvious advantages in dealing with systems’ nonlinear constraints and improving system performance by restraining overshoot current under step torque changing. Both simulation and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in achieving good steady-state performance and smooth switching between the constant torque and FW regions.

  1. Bank loan components and the time-varying effects of monetary policy shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Haan, W.J.; Sumner, S.W.; Yamashiro, G.M.

    2011-01-01

    The impulse response function (IRF) of an aggregate variable is time-varying if the IRFs of its components are different from each other and the relative magnitudes of the components are not constant—two conditions likely to be true in practice. We model the behaviour of loan components and document

  2. An extension of clarke's model with stochastic amplitude flip processes

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2014-07-01

    Stochastic modeling is an essential tool for studying statistical properties of wireless channels. In multipath fading channel (MFC) models, the signal reception is modeled by a sum of wave path contributions, and Clarke\\'s model is an important example of such which has been widely accepted in many wireless applications. However, since Clarke\\'s model is temporally deterministic, Feng and Field noted that it does not model real wireless channels with time-varying randomness well. Here, we extend Clarke\\'s model to a novel time-varying stochastic MFC model with scatterers randomly flipping on and off. Statistical properties of the MFC model are analyzed and shown to fit well with real signal measurements, and a limit Gaussian process is derived from the model when the number of active wave paths tends to infinity. A second focus of this work is a comparison study of the error and computational cost of generating signal realizations from the MFC model and from its limit Gaussian process. By rigorous analysis and numerical studies, we show that in many settings, signal realizations are generated more efficiently by Gaussian process algorithms than by the MFC model\\'s algorithm. Numerical examples that strengthen these observations are also presented. © 2014 IEEE.

  3. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  4. Reduced Gasoline Surrogate (Toluene/n-Heptane/iso-Octane) Chemical Kinetic Model for Compression Ignition Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani; Atef, Nour; Alfazazi, Adamu; Badra, Jihad; Zhang, Yu; Tzanetakis, Tom; Pei, Yuanjiang

    2018-01-01

    Toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF) (mixture of toluene, iso-octane and heptane) is a suitable surrogate to represent a wide spectrum of real fuels with varying octane sensitivity. Investigating different surrogates in engine simulations is a prerequisite to identify the best matching mixture. However, running 3D engine simulations using detailed models is currently impossible and reduction of detailed models is essential. This work presents an AramcoMech reduced kinetic model developed at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) for simulating complex TPRF surrogate blends. A semi-decoupling approach was used together with species and reaction lumping to obtain a reduced kinetic model. The model was widely validated against experimental data including shock tube ignition delay times and premixed laminar flame speeds. Finally, the model was utilized to simulate the combustion of a low reactivity gasoline fuel under partially premixed combustion conditions.

  5. Reduced Gasoline Surrogate (Toluene/n-Heptane/iso-Octane) Chemical Kinetic Model for Compression Ignition Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani

    2018-04-03

    Toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF) (mixture of toluene, iso-octane and heptane) is a suitable surrogate to represent a wide spectrum of real fuels with varying octane sensitivity. Investigating different surrogates in engine simulations is a prerequisite to identify the best matching mixture. However, running 3D engine simulations using detailed models is currently impossible and reduction of detailed models is essential. This work presents an AramcoMech reduced kinetic model developed at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) for simulating complex TPRF surrogate blends. A semi-decoupling approach was used together with species and reaction lumping to obtain a reduced kinetic model. The model was widely validated against experimental data including shock tube ignition delay times and premixed laminar flame speeds. Finally, the model was utilized to simulate the combustion of a low reactivity gasoline fuel under partially premixed combustion conditions.

  6. Pathogen exposure varies widely among sympatric populations of wild and domestic felids across the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N; Lappin, Michael R; Boydston, Erin E; Lyren, Lisa M; Alldredge, Mathew; Logan, Kenneth A; Sweanor, Linda L; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Fisher, Robert N; Vickers, T Winston; Boyce, Walter; Mcbride, Roy; Cunningham, Mark C; Jennings, Megan; Lewis, Jesse; Lunn, Tamika; Crooks, Kevin R; Vandewoude, Sue

    2016-03-01

    Understanding how landscape, host, and pathogen traits contribute to disease exposure requires systematic evaluations of pathogens within and among host species and geographic regions. The relative importance of these attributes is critical for management of wildlife and mitigating domestic animal and human disease, particularly given rapid ecological changes, such as urbanization. We screened > 1000 samples from sympatric populations of puma (Puma concolor), bobcat (Lynx rufus), and domestic cat (Felis catus) across urban gradients in six sites, representing three regions, in North America for exposure to a representative suite of bacterial, protozoal, and viral pathogens (Bartonella sp., Toxoplasma gondii, feline herpesvirus-1, feline panleukopenea virus, feline calicivirus, and feline immunodeficiency virus). We evaluated prevalence within each species, and examined host trait and land cover determinants of exposure; providing an unprecedented analysis of factors relating to potential for infections in domesticated and wild felids. Prevalence differed among host species (highest for puma and lowest for domestic cat) and was greater for indirectly transmitted pathogens. Sex was inconsistently predictive of exposure to directly transmitted pathogens only, and age infrequently predictive of both direct and indirectly transmitted pathogens. Determinants of pathogen exposure were widely divergent between the wild felid species. For puma, suburban land use predicted increased exposure to Bartonella sp. in southern California, and FHV-1 exposure increased near urban edges in Florida. This may suggest interspecific transmission with domestic cats via flea vectors (California) and direct contact (Florida) around urban boundaries. Bobcats captured near urban areas had increased exposure to T. gondii in Florida, suggesting an urban source of prey Bobcats captured near urban areas in Colorado and Florida had higher FIV exposure, possibly suggesting increased intraspecific

  7. Pathogen exposure varies widely among sympatric populations of wild and domestic felids across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carver, Scott; Bevins, Sarah N.; Lappin, Michael R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Alldredge, Mathew W.; Logan, Kenneth A.; Sweanor, Linda L.; Riley, Seth P.D.; Serieys, Laurel E.K.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Boyce, Walter M.; McBride, Roy; Cunnigham, Mark C.; Jennings, Megan; Lewis, Jesse S.; Lunn, Tamika; Crooks, Kevin R.; VandeWoude, Sue

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how landscape, host, and pathogen traits contribute to disease exposure requires systematic evaluations of pathogens within and among host species and geographic regions. The relative importance of these attributes is critical for management of wildlife and mitigating domestic animal and human disease, particularly given rapid ecological changes, such as urbanization. We screened >1,000 samples from sympatric populations of puma (Puma concolor), bobcat (Lynx rufus) and domestic cat (Felis catus) across urban gradients in six sites, representing three regions, in North America for exposure to a representative suite of bacterial, protozoal and viral pathogens (Bartonella sp., Toxoplasma gondii, feline herpesvirus-1, feline panleukopenea virus, feline calicivirus, feline immunodeficiency virus). We evaluated prevalence within each species, and examined host trait and land cover determinants of exposure-providing an unprecedented analysis of factors relating to potential for infections in domesticated and wild felids. Prevalence differed among host species (highest for puma and lowest for domestic cat) and was greater for indirectly transmitted pathogens. Sex was inconsistently predictive of exposure to directly transmitted pathogens only, and age infrequently predictive of both direct and indirectly transmitted pathogens. Determinants of pathogen exposure were widely divergent between the wild felid species. For puma, suburban landuse predicted increased exposure to Bartonella sp. in southern California, and FHV-1 exposure increased near urban edges in Florida. This may suggest inter-specific transmission with domestic cats via flea vectors (California) and direct contact (Florida) around urban boundaries. Bobcats captured near urban areas had increased exposure to T. gondii in Florida, suggesting an urban source of prey. Bobcats captured near urban areas in Colorado and Florida had higher FIV exposure, possibly suggesting increased intra

  8. A two-locus model of spatially varying stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geroldinger, Ludwig; Bürger, Reinhard

    2014-06-01

    The consequences of spatially varying, stabilizing or directional selection on a quantitative trait in a subdivided population are studied. A deterministic two-locus two-deme model is employed to explore the effects of migration, the degree of divergent selection, and the genetic architecture, i.e., the recombination rate and ratio of locus effects, on the maintenance of genetic variation. The possible equilibrium configurations are determined as functions of the migration rate. They depend crucially on the strength of divergent selection and the genetic architecture. The maximum migration rates are investigated below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium or a stable single-locus polymorphism can exist. Under stabilizing selection, but with different optima in the demes, strong recombination may facilitate the maintenance of polymorphism. However usually, and in particular with directional selection in opposite direction, the critical migration rates are maximized by a concentrated genetic architecture, i.e., by a major locus and a tightly linked minor one. Thus, complementing previous work on the evolution of genetic architectures in subdivided populations subject to diversifying selection, it is shown that concentrated architectures may aid the maintenance of polymorphism. Conditions are obtained when this is the case. Finally, the dependence of the phenotypic variance, linkage disequilibrium, and various measures of local adaptation and differentiation on the parameters is elaborated. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Brief history of agricultural systems modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, James W; Antle, John M; Basso, Bruno; Boote, Kenneth J; Conant, Richard T; Foster, Ian; Godfray, H Charles J; Herrero, Mario; Howitt, Richard E; Janssen, Sander; Keating, Brian A; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael; Porter, Cheryl H; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Wheeler, Tim R

    2017-07-01

    Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be

  10. Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

    2015-06-01

    We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

  11. Weaving a wide net.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garber, Linda

    2002-10-01

    SUMMARY Any single approach tostudents' heterosexism and homophobia, however well conceived and executed, is most successful when supported by an integrated campus approach to the problem. Taking as a model the multifaceted efforts at California State University, Fresno-a large public institution located in what can be considered the state's Bible Belt-this essay discusses the strengths and logistics of a campus-wide program to address homophobia and alleviate LGBTQ students' feelings of alienation from the institution and their oppression in society. The efforts of CSUF take place at a number of different levels-classroom, academic department, student services, faculty networking-and can be considered a successful work in progress.

  12. JR-curves of wide plates and CT25 specimens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aurich, D.; Wobst, K.; Krafka, H.

    1987-01-01

    In connection with the problem of the applicability of the characteristic specimen date - i.e. the initiation and stable crack propagation under maximal loads, together with the elastic-plastic material behaviour - to that of actual components, spot-check type beside tests were conducted using wide-plate central crack, central notch (CCT, CNT) and double external crack (DECT) samples. The material in question was an StE 460 steel. A comparison between the determined values shows that the assessed pressure vessel behaviour differs extensively to the values derived from the CCT and CNT specimens. The corresponding results obtained from the CT25 and DECT specimens vary only slightly in the region of interest and correspond to real vessel values. (orig./DG) [de

  13. Matching Value Propositions with Varied Customer Needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heikka, Eija-Liisa; Frandsen, Thomas; Hsuan, Juliana

    2018-01-01

    Organizations seek to manage varied customer segments using varied value propositions. The ability of a knowledge-intensive business service (KIBS) provider to formulate value propositions into attractive offerings to varied customers becomes a competitive advantage. In this specific business based...... on often highly abstract service offerings, this requires the provider to have a clear overview of its knowledge and resources and how these can be configured to obtain the desired customization of services. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how a KIBS provider can match value propositions...... with varied customer needs utilizing service modularity. To accomplish this purpose, a qualitative multiple case study is organized around 5 projects allowing within-case and cross-case comparisons. Our findings describe how through the configuration of knowledge and resources a sustainable competitive...

  14. Test of 1-D transport models, and their predictions for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.; Bateman, G.; Boucher, D.

    2001-01-01

    A number of proposed tokamak thermal transport models are tested by comparing their predictions with measurements from several tokamaks. The necessary data have been provided for a total of 75 discharges from C-mod, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U, T10, and TFTR. A standard prediction methodology has been developed, and three codes have been benchmarked; these 'standard' codes have been relied on for testing most of the transport models. While a wide range of physical transport processes has been tested, no single model has emerged as clearly superior to all competitors for simulating H-mode discharges. In order to winnow the field, further tests of the effect of sheared flows and of the 'stiffness' of transport are planned. Several of the models have been used to predict ITER performance, with widely varying results. With some transport models ITER's predicted fusion power depends strongly on the 'pedestal' temperature, but ∼ 1GW (Q=10) is predicted for most models if the pedestal temperature is at least 4 keV. (author)

  15. Tests of 1-D transport models, and their predictions for ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.R.; Bateman, G.; Boucher, D.

    1999-01-01

    A number of proposed tokamak thermal transport models are tested by comparing their predictions with measurements from several tokamaks. The necessary data have been provided for a total of 75 discharges from C-mod, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U, T10, and TFTR. A standard prediction methodology has been developed, and three codes have been benchmarked; these 'standard' codes have been relied on for testing most of the transport models. While a wide range of physical transport processes has been tested, no single model has emerged as clearly superior to all competitors for simulating H-mode discharges. In order to winnow the field, further tests of the effect of sheared flows and of the 'stiffness' of transport are planned. Several of the models have been used to predict ITER performance, with widely varying results. With some transport models ITER's predicted fusion power depends strongly on the 'pedestal' temperature, but ∼ 1GW (Q=10) is predicted for most models if the pedestal temperature is at least 4 keV. (author)

  16. Pervasive, Genome-Wide Transcription in the Organelle Genomes of Diverse Plastid-Bearing Protists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Sanitá Lima

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Organelle genomes are among the most sequenced kinds of chromosome. This is largely because they are small and widely used in molecular studies, but also because next-generation sequencing technologies made sequencing easier, faster, and cheaper. However, studies of organelle RNA have not kept pace with those of DNA, despite huge amounts of freely available eukaryotic RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq data. Little is known about organelle transcription in nonmodel species, and most of the available eukaryotic RNA-seq data have not been mined for organelle transcripts. Here, we use publicly available RNA-seq experiments to investigate organelle transcription in 30 diverse plastid-bearing protists with varying organelle genomic architectures. Mapping RNA-seq data to organelle genomes revealed pervasive, genome-wide transcription, regardless of the taxonomic grouping, gene organization, or noncoding content. For every species analyzed, transcripts covered ≥85% of the mitochondrial and/or plastid genomes (all of which were ≤105 kb, indicating that most of the organelle DNA—coding and noncoding—is transcriptionally active. These results follow earlier studies of model species showing that organellar transcription is coupled and ubiquitous across the genome, requiring significant downstream processing of polycistronic transcripts. Our findings suggest that noncoding organelle DNA can be transcriptionally active, raising questions about the underlying function of these transcripts and underscoring the utility of publicly available RNA-seq data for recovering complete genome sequences. If pervasive transcription is also found in bigger organelle genomes (>105 kb and across a broader range of eukaryotes, this could indicate that noncoding organelle RNAs are regulating fundamental processes within eukaryotic cells.

  17. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  18. Invariant operator theory for the single-photon energy in time-varying media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong-Ryeol, Choi

    2010-01-01

    After the birth of quantum mechanics, the notion in physics that the frequency of light is the only factor that determines the energy of a single photon has played a fundamental role. However, under the assumption that the theory of Lewis–Riesenfeld invariants is applicable in quantum optics, it is shown in the present work that this widely accepted notion is valid only for light described by a time-independent Hamiltonian, i.e., for light in media satisfying the conditions, ε(i) = ε(0), μ(t) = μ(0), and σ(t) = 0 simultaneously. The use of the Lewis–Riesenfeld invariant operator method in quantum optics leads to a marvelous result: the energy of a single photon propagating through time-varying linear media exhibits nontrivial time dependence without a change of frequency. (general)

  19. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-11-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

  20. A new surface catalytic model for silica-based thermal protection material for hypersonic vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Kai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Silica-based materials are widely employed in the thermal protection system for hypersonic vehicles, and the investigation of their catalytic characteristics is crucially important for accurate aerothermal heating prediction. By analyzing the disadvantages of Norman’s high and low temperature models, this paper combines the two models and proposes an eight-reaction combined surface catalytic model to describe the catalysis between oxygen and silica surface. Given proper evaluation of the parameters according to many references, the recombination coefficient obtained shows good agreement with experimental data. The catalytic mechanisms between oxygen and silica surface are then analyzed. Results show that with the increase of the wall temperature, the dominant reaction contributing to catalytic coefficient varies from Langmuir–Hinshelwood (LH recombination (TW  1350 K. The surface coverage of chemisorption areas varies evidently with the dominant reactions in the high temperature (HT range, while the surface coverage of physisorption areas varies within quite low temperature (LT range (TW < 250 K. Recommended evaluation of partial parameters is also given.