WorldWideScience

Sample records for models salient region

  1. Efficient classification using salient regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bing; Xu, Duanqing

    2012-07-01

    Classification of images in many categorized datasets has rapidly improved in recent years. However, methods that perform well on particular datasets typically have one or more limitations, such as insufficient image-transformation invariance or significant performance degradation as the number of classes is increased. We attempt to overcome these challenges by extracting and matching visual features only at the focuses of visual saliency instead of the entire scene. First, we propose a visual-saliency detection method that combines the respective merits of color-saliency boosting and global-region-based contrast schemes to achieve more accurate saliency maps. Using a single feature type, we then obtain good performance on three public datasets when compared to other state-of-the-art approaches. Overall, our results prove that robust and efficient fixation-based classification, in terms of reducing the complexity of feature extraction, is possible.

  2. A salient region detection model combining background distribution measure for indoor robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Xu, Hui; Wang, Zhenhua; Sun, Lining; Chen, Guodong

    2017-01-01

    Vision system plays an important role in the field of indoor robot. Saliency detection methods, capturing regions that are perceived as important, are used to improve the performance of visual perception system. Most of state-of-the-art methods for saliency detection, performing outstandingly in natural images, cannot work in complicated indoor environment. Therefore, we propose a new method comprised of graph-based RGB-D segmentation, primary saliency measure, background distribution measure, and combination. Besides, region roundness is proposed to describe the compactness of a region to measure background distribution more robustly. To validate the proposed approach, eleven influential methods are compared on the DSD and ECSSD dataset. Moreover, we build a mobile robot platform for application in an actual environment, and design three different kinds of experimental constructions that are different viewpoints, illumination variations and partial occlusions. Experimental results demonstrate that our model outperforms existing methods and is useful for indoor mobile robots.

  3. Global contrast based salient region detection

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Ming-Ming

    2011-08-25

    Reliable estimation of visual saliency allows appropriate processing of images without prior knowledge of their contents, and thus remains an important step in many computer vision tasks including image segmentation, object recognition, and adaptive compression. We propose a regional contrast based saliency extraction algorithm, which simultaneously evaluates global contrast differences and spatial coherence. The proposed algorithm is simple, efficient, and yields full resolution saliency maps. Our algorithm consistently outperformed existing saliency detection methods, yielding higher precision and better recall rates, when evaluated using one of the largest publicly available data sets. We also demonstrate how the extracted saliency map can be used to create high quality segmentation masks for subsequent image processing.

  4. Salient Region Detection via Feature Combination and Discriminative Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deming Kong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a novel approach to detect salient regions of an image via feature combination and discriminative classifier. Our method, which is based on hierarchical image abstraction, uses the logistic regression approach to map the regional feature vector to a saliency score. Four saliency cues are used in our approach, including color contrast in a global context, center-boundary priors, spatially compact color distribution, and objectness, which is as an atomic feature of segmented region in the image. By mapping a four-dimensional regional feature to fifteen-dimensional feature vector, we can linearly separate the salient regions from the clustered background by finding an optimal linear combination of feature coefficients in the fifteen-dimensional feature space and finally fuse the saliency maps across multiple levels. Furthermore, we introduce the weighted salient image center into our saliency analysis task. Extensive experiments on two large benchmark datasets show that the proposed approach achieves the best performance over several state-of-the-art approaches.

  5. Supporting drivable region detection by minimising salient pixels generated through robot sensors

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Falola, O

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available ]. However, the challenges of salient pixels remain a key issue in detecting drivable region. Salient pixels are the pixels in the non-drivable region sharing the same characteristics as road pixels. These pixels are salient as they are very conspicuous... for mobile robots. 2) Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the combined methods on a number of road frames in a series of experiments conducted. III. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY A. Image Acquisition A digital image consists of an array (N M) of pixels...

  6. Salient Region Detection by Fusing Foreground and Background Cues Extracted from Single Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiangqiang Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Saliency detection is an important preprocessing step in many application fields such as computer vision, robotics, and graphics to reduce computational cost by focusing on significant positions and neglecting the nonsignificant in the scene. Different from most previous methods which mainly utilize the contrast of low-level features, various feature maps are fused in a simple linear weighting form. In this paper, we propose a novel salient object detection algorithm which takes both background and foreground cues into consideration and integrate a bottom-up coarse salient regions extraction and a top-down background measure via boundary labels propagation into a unified optimization framework to acquire a refined saliency detection result. Wherein the coarse saliency map is also fused by three components, the first is local contrast map which is in more accordance with the psychological law, the second is global frequency prior map, and the third is global color distribution map. During the formation of background map, first we construct an affinity matrix and select some nodes which lie on border as labels to represent the background and then carry out a propagation to generate the regional background map. The evaluation of the proposed model has been implemented on four datasets. As demonstrated in the experiments, our proposed method outperforms most existing saliency detection models with a robust performance.

  7. Salient Ecological Sensitive Regions of Central Western Ghats, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandra, T. V.; Bharath, Setturu; Subash Chandran, M. D.; Joshi, N. V.

    2018-02-01

    Ecologically sensitive regions (ESRs) are the `ecological units' with the exceptional biotic and abiotic elements. Identification of ESRs considering spatially both ecological and social dimensions of environmental variables helps in ecological and conservation planning as per Biodiversity Act, 2002, Government of India. The current research attempts to integrate ecological and environmental considerations into administration, and prioritizes regions at Panchayat levels (local administrative unit) in Uttara Kannada district, Central Western Ghats, Karnataka state considering attributes (biological, Geo-climatic, Social, etc.) as ESR (1-4) through weightage score metrics. The region has the distinction of having highest forest area (80.48%) in Karnataka State, India and has been undergoing severe anthropogenic pressures impacting biogeochemistry, hydrology, food security, climate and socio-economic systems. Prioritisation of ESRs helps in the implementation of the sustainable developmental framework with the appropriate conservation strategies through the involvement of local stakeholders.

  8. Salient regions detection using convolutional neural networks and color volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guang-Hai; Hou, Yingkun

    2018-03-01

    Convolutional neural network is an important technique in machine learning, pattern recognition and image processing. In order to reduce the computational burden and extend the classical LeNet-5 model to the field of saliency detection, we propose a simple and novel computing model based on LeNet-5 network. In the proposed model, hue, saturation and intensity are utilized to extract depth cues, and then we integrate depth cues and color volume to saliency detection following the basic structure of the feature integration theory. Experimental results show that the proposed computing model outperforms some existing state-of-the-art methods on MSRA1000 and ECSSD datasets.

  9. From Pixels to Region: A Salient Region Detection Algorithm for Location-Quantification Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengmeng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Image saliency detection has become increasingly important with the development of intelligent identification and machine vision technology. This process is essential for many image processing algorithms such as image retrieval, image segmentation, image recognition, and adaptive image compression. We propose a salient region detection algorithm for full-resolution images. This algorithm analyzes the randomness and correlation of image pixels and pixel-to-region saliency computation mechanism. The algorithm first obtains points with more saliency probability by using the improved smallest univalue segment assimilating nucleus operator. It then reconstructs the entire saliency region detection by taking these points as reference and combining them with image spatial color distribution, as well as regional and global contrasts. The results for subjective and objective image saliency detection show that the proposed algorithm exhibits outstanding performance in terms of technology indices such as precision and recall rates.

  10. Estimation of salient regions related to chronic gastritis using gastric X-ray images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Togo, Ren; Ishihara, Kenta; Ogawa, Takahiro; Haseyama, Miki

    2016-10-01

    Since technical knowledge and a high degree of experience are necessary for diagnosis of chronic gastritis, computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems that analyze gastric X-ray images are desirable in the field of medicine. Therefore, a new method that estimates salient regions related to chronic gastritis/non-gastritis for supporting diagnosis is presented in this paper. In order to estimate salient regions related to chronic gastritis/non-gastritis, the proposed method monitors the distance between a target image feature and Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based hyperplane for its classification. Furthermore, our method realizes removal of the influence of regions outside the stomach by using positional relationships between the stomach and other organs. Consequently, since the proposed method successfully estimates salient regions of gastric X-ray images for which chronic gastritis and non-gastritis are unknown, visual support for inexperienced clinicians becomes feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Multi-scale salient feature extraction on mesh models

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Yongliang

    2012-01-01

    We present a new method of extracting multi-scale salient features on meshes. It is based on robust estimation of curvature on multiple scales. The coincidence between salient feature and the scale of interest can be established straightforwardly, where detailed feature appears on small scale and feature with more global shape information shows up on large scale. We demonstrate this multi-scale description of features accords with human perception and can be further used for several applications as feature classification and viewpoint selection. Experiments exhibit that our method as a multi-scale analysis tool is very helpful for studying 3D shapes. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

  12. Overweight consumers' salient beliefs on omega-3-enriched functional foods in Australia's Illawarra region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patch, Craig S; Tapsell, Linda C; Williams, Peter G

    2005-01-01

    To determine consumer salient beliefs toward functional foods enriched with omega-3 fatty acids. Focus group interviews with adult consumers using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a theoretical framework. Community-based residents living in the Illawarra region of New South Wales, Australia. Forty-two overweight participants (29 female, 13 male) aged 30 to 80 years recruited by advertisement and attending 1 of 6 focus groups, which were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Content analysis was carried out, and subcategories were developed to capture the emerging themes according to the TPB model. Most participants were aware of a range of potential benefits of omega-3 fatty acids, but they had reservations about the ability of omega-3-enriched foods to deliver a health benefit. They were concerned about whether these foods were labeled clearly and about the possibility of overdosing. Family and friends were viewed as important in introducing participants to novel foods on the market. Participants regarded dietitians as a credible source and were least trusting of food companies and scientists. Overall, participants reported that cost was a major barrier, and that they would not necessarily trade taste for health benefits. Adding omega-3 fatty acids to foods regarded as less healthful was viewed more as a gimmick rather than a real health benefit. The consumer attitudes and purchase intentions identified in this study will be helpful to educators as they plan messages and strategies to guide dietary choices related to products enriched with omega-3 fatty acids.

  13. Salient Features of the Harnischfeger-Wiley Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallinan, Maureen T.

    1976-01-01

    Explicates the Harnischfeger-Wiley model and points out its properties, underlying assumptions, and location in the literature on achievement. It also describes and critiques an empirical test by Harnischfeger and Wiley of their model. (Author/IRT)

  14. Modeling the starting performance of high power solid rotor salient pole synchronous motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlson, R.; Sadowski, N. [GRUCAD/Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, SC 88040-970 (Brazil); Grander, L.O. [ELETROSUL Power Stations S.A., Florianopolis, SC 88040-901 (Brazil); Ruencos, F.; Ogawa, C.; Fo, F.J. Doubrawa [WEG Energy, Jaragua do Sul, SC 89256-900 (Brazil)

    2009-12-15

    A computer model, including analytical and FEM formulations, was developed to calculate the starting performance of synchronous motors with solid rotor salient poles. Using quasi-steady state equations, the average and the envelope of the oscillating electromagnetic torque as well as the stator rms current are calculated. With the stator current, the rotor pole losses are evaluated by FEM. The complete simulation process is performed by self-contained software composed by several computational modules properly tiled to simplify the work of a design engineer. The calculated starting performance was compared to experimental results showing satisfactory consistency. (author)

  15. Robust vehicle detection in aerial images based on salient region selection and superpixel classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahli, Samir; Duval, Pierre-Luc; Sheng, Yunlong; Lavigne, Daniel A.

    2011-05-01

    For detecting vehicles in large scale aerial images we first used a non-parametric method proposed recently by Rosin to define the regions of interest, where the vehicles appear with dense edges. The saliency map is a sum of distance transforms (DT) of a set of edges maps, which are obtained by a threshold decomposition of the gradient image with a set of thresholds. A binary mask for highlighting the regions of interest is then obtained by a moment-preserving thresholding of the normalized saliency map. Secondly, the regions of interest were over-segmented by the SLIC superpixels proposed recently by Achanta et al. to cluster pixels into the color constancy sub-regions. In the aerial images of 11.2 cm/pixel resolution, the vehicles in general do not exceed 20 x 40 pixels. We introduced a size constraint to guarantee no superpixels exceed the size of a vehicle. The superpixels were then classified to vehicle or non-vehicle by the Support Vector Machine (SVM), in which the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) features and the Linear Binary Pattern (LBP) texture features were used. Both features were extracted at two scales with two size patches. The small patches capture local structures and the larger patches include the neighborhood information. Preliminary results show a significant gain in the detection. The vehicles were detected with a dense concentration of the vehicle-class superpixels. Even dark color cars were successfully detected. A validation process will follow to reduce the presence of isolated false alarms in the background.

  16. Salient features of heavy ion reactions in the intermediate energy region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakobsson, B.

    1987-01-01

    In this lecture the attention is focused on the most central and therefore generally also the most violent collisions. It is necessary to remember that the non-participating volumes could be very different for symmetric and asymmetric reactions. The onset of the multifragmentation channel or rather the cease of the fusion process is the first topic to be discussed. This question is directly related to the limitation in energy and momentum transfer and thus to the question about nuclear transparency. Exclusive data on multifragmentation on an event-by-event basis, which may help the model constructors, is presented as the second topic. In lecture the onset of fragmentation, fragment sizes in multifragmentation processes, the origin of light particle correlations and emission of pions and kaons close to the threshold are discussed

  17. On the Distribution of Salient Objects in Web Images and Its Influence on Salient Object Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauerte, Boris; Stiefelhagen, Rainer

    2015-01-01

    In recent years it has become apparent that a Gaussian center bias can serve as an important prior for visual saliency detection, which has been demonstrated for predicting human eye fixations and salient object detection. Tseng et al. have shown that the photographer's tendency to place interesting objects in the center is a likely cause for the center bias of eye fixations. We investigate the influence of the photographer's center bias on salient object detection, extending our previous work. We show that the centroid locations of salient objects in photographs of Achanta and Liu's data set in fact correlate strongly with a Gaussian model. This is an important insight, because it provides an empirical motivation and justification for the integration of such a center bias in salient object detection algorithms and helps to understand why Gaussian models are so effective. To assess the influence of the center bias on salient object detection, we integrate an explicit Gaussian center bias model into two state-of-the-art salient object detection algorithms. This way, first, we quantify the influence of the Gaussian center bias on pixel- and segment-based salient object detection. Second, we improve the performance in terms of F1 score, Fβ score, area under the recall-precision curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and hit-rate on the well-known data set by Achanta and Liu. Third, by debiasing Cheng et al.'s region contrast model, we exemplarily demonstrate that implicit center biases are partially responsible for the outstanding performance of state-of-the-art algorithms. Last but not least, we introduce a non-biased salient object detection method, which is of interest for applications in which the image data is not likely to have a photographer's center bias (e.g., image data of surveillance cameras or autonomous robots).

  18. On the Distribution of Salient Objects in Web Images and Its Influence on Salient Object Detection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Schauerte

    Full Text Available In recent years it has become apparent that a Gaussian center bias can serve as an important prior for visual saliency detection, which has been demonstrated for predicting human eye fixations and salient object detection. Tseng et al. have shown that the photographer's tendency to place interesting objects in the center is a likely cause for the center bias of eye fixations. We investigate the influence of the photographer's center bias on salient object detection, extending our previous work. We show that the centroid locations of salient objects in photographs of Achanta and Liu's data set in fact correlate strongly with a Gaussian model. This is an important insight, because it provides an empirical motivation and justification for the integration of such a center bias in salient object detection algorithms and helps to understand why Gaussian models are so effective. To assess the influence of the center bias on salient object detection, we integrate an explicit Gaussian center bias model into two state-of-the-art salient object detection algorithms. This way, first, we quantify the influence of the Gaussian center bias on pixel- and segment-based salient object detection. Second, we improve the performance in terms of F1 score, Fβ score, area under the recall-precision curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and hit-rate on the well-known data set by Achanta and Liu. Third, by debiasing Cheng et al.'s region contrast model, we exemplarily demonstrate that implicit center biases are partially responsible for the outstanding performance of state-of-the-art algorithms. Last but not least, we introduce a non-biased salient object detection method, which is of interest for applications in which the image data is not likely to have a photographer's center bias (e.g., image data of surveillance cameras or autonomous robots.

  19. Permanent magnet online magnetization performance analysis of a flux mnemonic double salient motor using an improved hysteresis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaoyong; Quan, Li; Chen, Yunyun; Liu, Guohai; Shen, Yue; Liu, Hui

    2012-04-01

    The concept of the memory motor is based on the fact that the magnetization level of the AlNiCo permanent magnet in the motor can be regulated by a temporary current pulse and memorized automatically. In this paper, a new type of memory motor is proposed, namely a flux mnemonic double salient motor drive, which is particularly attractive for electric vehicles. To accurately analyze the motor, an improved hysteresis model is employed in the time-stepping finite element method. Both simulation and experimental results are given to verify the validity of the new method.

  20. Modelo dinámico de la máquina sincrónica de polos salientes en vectores espaciales y su aplicación al control directo de par; Dynamic space vectors model of salient – pole synchronous Machines Aplied to direct torque control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alain Amador León

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se desarrolla el modelo dinámico de la máquina sincrónica de polos salientes (MSPS envectores espaciales referidos tanto al sistema de coordenadas estatórico como al rotórico. El modelo envectores espaciales de la máquina sincrónica de polos salientes es una herramienta útil para el desarrollode diversos métodos de control vectorial. Para demostrar algunas de las características y ventajas delmodelo propuesto, se analiza con esta herramienta a manera de ejemplo, un controlador directo de par(DTC. Las ventajas obtenidas con esta técnica de modelación, pueden ser extendidas a muchos otroscomponentes del sistema eléctrico tales como transformadores, líneas, cargas, convertidores electrónicosde potencia y otros tipos de máquinas eléctricas de corriente alterna. In this work, a dynamic model of the salient-pole synchronous machine is developed using space vectorsreferred to the stator and rotor frames.. The space vector model of the salient-pole synchronous machine isa useful development tool for vector control applications. Finally, to prove some advantages of theproposed model, a Direct Torque Control (DTC is analyzed using this technique. The differententadvantages obtained with this modeling technique can be extended to other electric system components,such as transformers, transmission lines, loads, electronic power converters and other alternating currentmachines.

  1. ACTION RECOGNITION USING SALIENT NEIGHBORING HISTOGRAMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Huamin; Moeslund, Thomas B.

    2013-01-01

    Combining spatio-temporal interest points with Bag-of-Words models achieves state-of-the-art performance in action recognition. However, existing methods based on “bag-ofwords” models either are too local to capture the variance in space/time or fail to solve the ambiguity problem in spatial...... and temporal dimensions. Instead, we propose a salient vocabulary construction algorithm to select visual words from a global point of view, and form compact descriptors to represent discriminative histograms in the neighborhoods. Those salient neighboring histograms are then trained to model different actions...

  2. Discurso del Presidente Saliente

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Jacobo Muñoz

    1994-09-01

    Full Text Available

    Santafé de Bogotá, D.C., 17 de mayo de 1994

    Señor Ministro de Salud Pública
    Señor presidente de la Academia Colombiana de la Lengua
    Señores miembros de la Junta Directiva de la Academia Nal. de Medicina, saliente
    Señores miembros de la Junta Directiva de la Academia Na/. de Medicina, entrante
    Señores Académicos
    Señoras y señores:

    Un número crecido de académicos, de amplia mayoría, eligió para las dignidades de la Mesa Directiva a los doctores Gilberto Rueda Pérez, como presidente; Roberto De Zubiría Consuegra como vicepresidente; Zoilo Cuéllar Montoya como secretario y Gonzalo López Escovar, como tesorero.

    Los académicos hicieron la mejor escogencia. El doctor Gilberto Rueda Pérez es uno de los miembros más destacados de la corporación, por su prestancia personal y por sus condiciones profesionales. Ha trabajado en enfermedades pulmonares, especialmente en tuberculosis, constituyéndose en uno de los más destacados especialistas en estos temas, sobre los cuales ha publicado un crecido número de comunicaciones.

    El doctor Roberto De Zubiría Consuegra, a quien veremos en el futuro en altas posiciones, es un internista connotado, que ha llegado a la concepción médica integral, concibiendo al hombre como un conjunto inseparable de materia y espíritu.

    Ilustre oftalmólogo cuyos antepasados han estado en esta Academia, el doctor Zoilo Cuéllar Montoya llega a la Secretaría a escalar todos los peldaños, como sus familiares. Nos ha demostrado ya su presencia y su capacidad investigativa.

    Ocupará la Tesorería, un cirujano y gastroenterólogo distinguido, el doctor Gonzalo López Escobar, joven miembro de nuestra profesión, en la cual ya se distingue como elemento brillante y que

  3. Guiding Age 10-11 Students to Notice the Salient Features of Physical Change Models in Chemistry Digital Learning Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Brenda; Mahaffy, Peter; Martin, Brian

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on one Grade 5 class (9 females; 9 males) who worked in student-pairs to view five digital learning object (DLO) lessons created by the authors and meant to introduce students to the nature of models, the particle nature of matter, and physical change. Specifically, the paper focuses on whether DLO design elements could assist…

  4. Demonstrating Patterns in the Views Of Stakeholders Regarding Ethically-Salient Issues in Clinical Research: A Novel Use of Graphical Models in Empirical Ethics Inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jane Paik; Roberts, Laura Weiss

    Empirical ethics inquiry works from the notion that stakeholder perspectives are necessary for gauging the ethical acceptability of human studies and assuring that research aligns with societal expectations. Although common, studies involving different populations often entail comparisons of trends that problematize the interpretation of results. Using graphical model selection - a technique aimed at transcending limitations of conventional methods - this report presents data on the ethics of clinical research with two objectives: (1) to display the patterns of views held by ill and healthy individuals in clinical research as a test of the study's original hypothesis and (2) to introduce graphical model selection as a key analytic tool for ethics research. In this IRB-approved, NIH-funded project, data were collected from 60 mentally ill and 43 physically ill clinical research protocol volunteers, 47 healthy protocol-consented participants, and 29 healthy individuals without research protocol experience. Respondents were queried on the ethical acceptability of research involving people with mental and physical illness (i.e., cancer, HIV, depression, schizophrenia, and post-traumatic stress disorder) and non-illness related sources of vulnerability (e.g., age, class, gender, ethnicity). Using a statistical algorithm, we selected graphical models to display interrelationships among responses to questions. Both mentally and physically ill protocol volunteers revealed a high degree of connectivity among ethically-salient perspectives. Healthy participants, irrespective of research protocol experience, revealed patterns of views that were not highly connected. Between ill and healthy protocol participants, the pattern of views is vastly different. Experience with illness was tied to dense connectivity, whereas healthy individuals expressed views with sparse connections. In offering a nuanced perspective on the interrelation of ethically relevant responses, graphical

  5. Fast Calculation Model and Theoretical Analysis of Rotor Unbalanced Magnetic Pull for Inter-Turn Short Circuit of Field Windings of Non-Salient Pole Generators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangtao Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Inter-turn short circuit of field windings (ISCFW may cause the field current of a generator to increase, output reactive power to decrease, and unit vibration to intensify, seriously affecting its safe and stable operation. Full integration of mechanical and electrical characteristics can improve the sensitivity of online monitoring, and detect the early embryonic period fault of small turns. This paper studies the calculations and variations of unbalanced magnetic pull (UMP, of which the excitation source of rotor vibration is the basis and key to online fault monitoring. In grid load operation, ISCFW are first calculated with the multi-loop method, so as to obtain the numerical solutions of the stator and the rotor currents during the fault. Next, the air-gap magnetic field of the ISCFW is analyzed according to the actual composition modes of the motor loops in the fault, so as to obtain the analytic expressions of the air-gap magnetic motive force (MMF and magnetic density. The UMP of the rotor is obtained by solving the integral of the Maxwell stress. The correctness of the electric quantity calculation is verified by the ISCFW experiment, conducted in a one pair-pole non-salient pole model machine. On this basis, comparing the simulation analysis with the calculation results of the model in this paper not only verifies the accuracy of the electromagnetic force calculation, but also proves that the latter has the advantages of a short time consumption and high efficiency. Finally, the influencing factors and variation law of UMP are analyzed by means of an analytic model. This develops a base for the online monitoring of ISCFW with the integration of mechanical and electrical information.

  6. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  7. Salient Point and Scale Detection by Minimum Likelihood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Kim Steenstrup; Loog, Marco; van Dorst, Pieter

    2007-01-01

    We propose a novel approach for detection of salient image points and estimation of their intrinsic scales based on the fractional Brownian image model. Under this model images are realisations of a Gaussian random process on the plane. We define salient points as points that have a locally unique...... image structure. Such points are usually sparsely distributed in images and carry important information about the image content. Locality is defined in terms of the measurement scale of the filters used to describe the image structure. Here we use partial derivatives of the image function defined using...... linear scale space theory. We propose to detect salient points and their intrinsic scale by detecting points in scale-space that locally minimise the likelihood under the model....

  8. A Benchmark Dataset and Saliency-guided Stacked Autoencoders for Video-based Salient Object Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Xia, Changqun; Chen, Xiaowu

    2017-10-12

    Image-based salient object detection (SOD) has been extensively studied in past decades. However, video-based SOD is much less explored due to the lack of large-scale video datasets within which salient objects are unambiguously defined and annotated. Toward this end, this paper proposes a video-based SOD dataset that consists of 200 videos. In constructing the dataset, we manually annotate all objects and regions over 7,650 uniformly sampled keyframes and collect the eye-tracking data of 23 subjects who free-view all videos. From the user data, we find that salient objects in a video can be defined as objects that consistently pop-out throughout the video, and objects with such attributes can be unambiguously annotated by combining manually annotated object/region masks with eye-tracking data of multiple subjects. To the best of our knowledge, it is currently the largest dataset for videobased salient object detection. Based on this dataset, this paper proposes an unsupervised baseline approach for video-based SOD by using saliencyguided stacked autoencoders. In the proposed approach, multiple spatiotemporal saliency cues are first extracted at the pixel, superpixel and object levels. With these saliency cues, stacked autoencoders are constructed in an unsupervised manner that automatically infers a saliency score for each pixel by progressively encoding the high-dimensional saliency cues gathered from the pixel and its spatiotemporal neighbors. In experiments, the proposed unsupervised approach is compared with 31 state-of-the-art models on the proposed dataset and outperforms 30 of them, including 19 imagebased classic (unsupervised or non-deep learning) models, six image-based deep learning models, and five video-based unsupervised models. Moreover, benchmarking results show that the proposed dataset is very challenging and has the potential to boost the development of video-based SOD.

  9. Video Salient Object Detection via Fully Convolutional Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing; Shao, Ling

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes a deep learning model to efficiently detect salient regions in videos. It addresses two important issues: (1) deep video saliency model training with the absence of sufficiently large and pixel-wise annotated video data, and (2) fast video saliency training and detection. The proposed deep video saliency network consists of two modules, for capturing the spatial and temporal saliency information, respectively. The dynamic saliency model, explicitly incorporating saliency estimates from the static saliency model, directly produces spatiotemporal saliency inference without time-consuming optical flow computation. We further propose a novel data augmentation technique that simulates video training data from existing annotated image datasets, which enables our network to learn diverse saliency information and prevents overfitting with the limited number of training videos. Leveraging our synthetic video data (150K video sequences) and real videos, our deep video saliency model successfully learns both spatial and temporal saliency cues, thus producing accurate spatiotemporal saliency estimate. We advance the state-of-the-art on the DAVIS dataset (MAE of .06) and the FBMS dataset (MAE of .07), and do so with much improved speed (2fps with all steps).

  10. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

    2015-01-01

    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusse...

  11. Preschoolers Benefit from Visually Salient Speech Cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalonde, Kaylah; Holt, Rachael Frush

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This study explored visual speech influence in preschoolers using 3 developmentally appropriate tasks that vary in perceptual difficulty and task demands. They also examined developmental differences in the ability to use visually salient speech cues and visual phonological knowledge. Method: Twelve adults and 27 typically developing 3-…

  12. Human Action Recognition Using Improved Salient Dense Trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingwu Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Human action recognition in videos is a topic of active research in computer vision. Dense trajectory (DT features were shown to be efficient for representing videos in state-of-the-art approaches. In this paper, we present a more effective approach of video representation using improved salient dense trajectories: first, detecting the motion salient region and extracting the dense trajectories by tracking interest points in each spatial scale separately and then refining the dense trajectories via the analysis of the motion saliency. Then, we compute several descriptors (i.e., trajectory displacement, HOG, HOF, and MBH in the spatiotemporal volume aligned with the trajectories. Finally, in order to represent the videos better, we optimize the framework of bag-of-words according to the motion salient intensity distribution and the idea of sparse coefficient reconstruction. Our architecture is trained and evaluated on the four standard video actions datasets of KTH, UCF sports, HMDB51, and UCF50, and the experimental results show that our approach performs competitively comparing with the state-of-the-art results.

  13. Ships as salient objects in synthetic aperture radar imaginary

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schwegmann, Colin P

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available perspective on ships in Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery by viewing them as visually salient objects. The paper introduces common methods of ship object extraction and demonstrates how salient object mapping can improve the accuracy of extracted ships...

  14. Remote Sensing of Martian Terrain Hazards via Visually Salient Feature Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Milli, S.; Shaukat, A.; Spiteri, C.; Gao, Y.

    2014-04-01

    The main objective of the FASTER remote sensing system is the detection of rocks on planetary surfaces by employing models that can efficiently characterise rocks in terms of semantic descriptions. The proposed technique abates some of the algorithmic limitations of existing methods with no training requirements, lower computational complexity and greater robustness towards visual tracking applications over long-distance planetary terrains. Visual saliency models inspired from biological systems help to identify important regions (such as rocks) in the visual scene. Surface rocks are therefore completely described in terms of their local or global conspicuity pop-out characteristics. These local and global pop-out cues are (but not limited to); colour, depth, orientation, curvature, size, luminance intensity, shape, topology etc. The currently applied methods follow a purely bottom-up strategy of visual attention for selection of conspicuous regions in the visual scene without any topdown control. Furthermore the choice of models used (tested and evaluated) are relatively fast among the state-of-the-art and have very low computational load. Quantitative evaluation of these state-ofthe- art models was carried out using benchmark datasets including the Surrey Space Centre Lab Testbed, Pangu generated images, RAL Space SEEKER and CNES Mars Yard datasets. The analysis indicates that models based on visually salient information in the frequency domain (SRA, SDSR, PQFT) are the best performing ones for detecting rocks in an extra-terrestrial setting. In particular the SRA model seems to be the most optimum of the lot especially that it requires the least computational time while keeping errors competitively low. The salient objects extracted using these models can then be merged with the Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) generated from the same navigation cameras in order to be fused to the navigation map thus giving a clear indication of the rock locations.

  15. THE EFFECT OF INTIMACY AND STATUS DISCREPANCY ON SALIENT AND NON-SALIENT CONFLICT STRATEGIES OF JAPANESE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakatsugawa, Satomi; Takai, Jiro

    2015-10-01

    It has been claimed that Japanese people prefer passive forms of conflict strategies to preserve interpersonal harmony. This study aimed to identify some conditions in which such passive strategies are used. The effects of target intimacy and status discrepancy on the intent and use of salient and non-salient conflict strategies were examined, along with respondent sex differences. Questionnaires were collected from 205 Japanese university students. Results indicated that women were more likely to have non-salient intents than men and that intimacy affected considerateness intent but not avoidance intent. Active non-salient strategy was affected by status while passive non-salient strategy was affected by intimacy. Overall, target characteristics proved to be a strong factor in the intents and strategies employed in conflict situations of Japanese.

  16. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  17. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  18. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

  19. Dim target detection method based on salient graph fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ruo-lan; Shen, Yi-yan; Jiang, Jun

    2018-02-01

    Dim target detection is one key problem in digital image processing field. With development of multi-spectrum imaging sensor, it becomes a trend to improve the performance of dim target detection by fusing the information from different spectral images. In this paper, one dim target detection method based on salient graph fusion was proposed. In the method, Gabor filter with multi-direction and contrast filter with multi-scale were combined to construct salient graph from digital image. And then, the maximum salience fusion strategy was designed to fuse the salient graph from different spectral images. Top-hat filter was used to detect dim target from the fusion salient graph. Experimental results show that proposal method improved the probability of target detection and reduced the probability of false alarm on clutter background images.

  20. Salient value similarity, social trust, and attitudes toward wildland fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerry J. Vaske; James D. Absher; Alan D. Bright

    2007-01-01

    Using the salient value similarity (SVS) model, we predicted that social trust mediated the relationship between SVS and attitudes toward prescribed burns and mechanical thinning. Data were obtained from a mail survey (n = 532) of Colorado residents living in the wildland-urban interface. Results indicated that respondents shared the same values as U...

  1. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  2. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.

    2007-02-01

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model--and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  3. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  4. Functional neurological symptoms modulate processing of emotionally salient stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiess, Johanna; Rockstroh, Brigitte; Schmidt, Roger; Wienbruch, Christian; Steffen, Astrid

    2016-12-01

    Dysfunctional emotion processing has been discussed as a contributing factor to functional neurological symptoms (FNS) in the context of conversion disorder, and refers to blunted recognition and the expression of one's own feelings. However, the emotion processing components characteristic for FNS and/or relevant for conversion remain to be specified. With this goal, the present study targeted the initial, automatic discrimination of emotionally salient stimuli. The magnetoencephalogram (MEG) was monitored in 21 patients with functional weakness and/or sensory disturbance subtypes of FNS and 21 healthy comparison participants (HC) while they passively watched 600 emotionally arousing, pleasant, unpleasant or neutral stimuli in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) design. Neuromagnetic activity was analyzed 110-330ms following picture onset in source space for prior defined posterior and central regions of interest. As early as 110ms and across presentation interval, posterior neural activity modulation by picture category was similar in both groups, despite smaller initial (110-150ms) overall and posterior power in patients with FNS. The initial activity modulation by picture category was also evident in the left sensorimotor area in patients with FNS, but not significant in HC. Similar activity modulation by emotional picture category in patients with FNS and HC suggests that the fast, automatic detection of emotional salience is unchanged in patients with FNS, but involves an emotion-processing network spanning posterior and sensorimotor areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. NAVO NCOM Relocatable Model: Fukushima Regional Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Preliminary NCOM Relocatable 1km forecast model for Fukushima Region. USERS ARE REMINDED TO USE THE FUKUSHIMA 1KM NCOM DATA WITH CAUTION. THE MODEL WAS INITIATED ON...

  6. The Regional Discharge Model development project

    OpenAIRE

    Mäenpää, Tiina; Koivunen, Marita; Lukka, Heli; Wanne, Olli

    2010-01-01

    Purpose/Theory The goal of the Regional Discharge Model (RDM) project was to develop discharge models, avoid unnecessary hospitalization, and improves the transfer of the patient to the right follow-on treatment or care, utilizing the public and private sector, research and training as well as developing technologies like the Regional Health Information Systems (RHIS) in the Satakunta Hospital District area. The RDM project is part of the ‘Whole life at home’ initiative funded and administere...

  7. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  8. Edge Preserving and Multi-Scale Contextual Neural Network for Salient Object Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiang; Ma, Huimin; Chen, Xiaozhi; You, Shaodi

    In this paper, we propose a novel edge preserving and multi-scale contextual neural network for salient object detection. The proposed framework is aiming to address two limits of the existing CNN based methods. First, region-based CNN methods lack sufficient context to accurately locate salient object since they deal with each region independently. Second, pixel-based CNN methods suffer from blurry boundaries due to the presence of convolutional and pooling layers. Motivated by these, we first propose an end-to-end edge-preserved neural network based on Fast R-CNN framework (named RegionNet ) to efficiently generate saliency map with sharp object boundaries. Later, to further improve it, multi-scale spatial context is attached to RegionNet to consider the relationship between regions and the global scenes. Furthermore, our method can be generally applied to RGB-D saliency detection by depth refinement. The proposed framework achieves both clear detection boundary and multi-scale contextual robustness simultaneously for the first time, and thus achieves an optimized performance. Experiments on six RGB and two RGB-D benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance.In this paper, we propose a novel edge preserving and multi-scale contextual neural network for salient object detection. The proposed framework is aiming to address two limits of the existing CNN based methods. First, region-based CNN methods lack sufficient context to accurately locate salient object since they deal with each region independently. Second, pixel-based CNN methods suffer from blurry boundaries due to the presence of convolutional and pooling layers. Motivated by these, we first propose an end-to-end edge-preserved neural network based on Fast R-CNN framework (named RegionNet ) to efficiently generate saliency map with sharp object boundaries. Later, to further improve it, multi-scale spatial context is attached to RegionNet to consider the

  9. Morality salience increases adherence to salient norms and values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gailliot, M.T.; Stillman, T.F.; Schmeichel, B.J.; Maner, J.K.; Plant, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    Four studies indicate that mortality salience increases adherence to social norms and values, but only when cultural norms and values are salient. In Study 1, mortality salience coupled with a reminder about cultural values of egalitarianism reduced prejudice toward Blacks among non-Black

  10. Some salient features of the atmosphere observed over the north ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Some salient features of the atmosphere observed over the north Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX. G S Bhat. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India. e-mail: bhat@caos.iisc.ernet.in. This paper describes the near surface characteristics and vertical variations based on the ...

  11. Consumers' salient beliefs regarding foods from edible insects in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Consumers' salient beliefs regarding foods from edible insects in Kenya: a qualitative study using concepts from the theory of planned behaviour. ... Insects as food and consumption of foods from edible insects (FEI) are being promoted as one potential solution to the declining access to protein foods. However, one of the ...

  12. Learning multiple rules simultaneously: Affixes are more salient than reduplications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervain, Judit; Endress, Ansgar D

    2017-04-01

    Language learners encounter numerous opportunities to learn regularities, but need to decide which of these regularities to learn, because some are not productive in their native language. Here, we present an account of rule learning based on perceptual and memory primitives (Endress, Dehaene-Lambertz, & Mehler, Cognition, 105(3), 577-614, 2007; Endress, Nespor, & Mehler, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 13(8), 348-353, 2009), suggesting that learners preferentially learn regularities that are more salient to them, and that the pattern of salience reflects the frequency of language features across languages. We contrast this view with previous artificial grammar learning research, which suggests that infants "choose" the regularities they learn based on rational, Bayesian criteria (Frank & Tenenbaum, Cognition, 120(3), 360-371, 2013; Gerken, Cognition, 98(3)B67-B74, 2006, Cognition, 115(2), 362-366, 2010). In our experiments, adult participants listened to syllable strings starting with a syllable reduplication and always ending with the same "affix" syllable, or to syllable strings starting with this "affix" syllable and ending with the "reduplication". Both affixation and reduplication are frequently used for morphological marking across languages. We find three crucial results. First, participants learned both regularities simultaneously. Second, affixation regularities seemed easier to learn than reduplication regularities. Third, regularities in sequence offsets were easier to learn than regularities at sequence onsets. We show that these results are inconsistent with previous Bayesian rule learning models, but mesh well with the perceptual or memory primitives view. Further, we show that the pattern of salience revealed in our experiments reflects the distribution of regularities across languages. Ease of acquisition might thus be one determinant of the frequency of regularities across languages.

  13. EURO-CORDEX regional climate models: Performance over Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stilinović, Tomislav; Güttler, Ivan; Srnec, Lidija; Branković, Čedo

    2017-04-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are high-resolution version of a global climate models (GCMs) designed to achieve simulations at horizontal resolutions relevant for human activities on local and regional spatial scales, and to simulate relevant processes in historical and potential future climate conditions. In this study, a set of experiments the EURO-CORDEX simulations are evaluated over the Mediterranean region. All simulations were made at the two horizontal resolutions (50 km and 12.5 km) and compared with gridded pan-European gridded dataset E-OBSv11 at the regular 0.25°×0.25° grid for the two periods (1989-2008 for the ERA-Interim-driven ensemble of simulations; 1971-2000 for the GCMs-driven ensemble of simulations). We will evaluate the impacts of (1) the boundary conditions, (2) different horizontal resolutions (0.44°/50 km vs. 0.11°/12.5 km), and (3) the impact of convective parametrization on systematic errors, specialy in case of the RegCM4 model extensively used at DHMZ. For each simulation commonly used evaluation metrics are applied. They include: (1) spatially-averaged differences between RCMs and observations, (2) the spatial 95 th percentiles of simulated and observed temperature and precipitation, (3) spatial correlation coefficients between models and observations, (4) the ratio of spatial standard deviations between simulated and observed fields, and (5) the Spearman rank correlations between simulated and observed time-series of spatially-averaged temperature and precipitation. As commonly found in other studies, the total precipitation in RCM simulations is often overestimated and spatial correlations are noticeably lower than for temperature. The results highlight that, the RegCM4 is able to capture the (observed) spatial variability of the Mediterranean temperature climate. This is indicated by high spatial correlations with values larger than 0.9 and values of normalized standard deviation below 1 for Mediterranean region. The results

  14. Comparison of global and regional ionospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranner, H.-P.; Krauss, S.; Stangl, G.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling of the Earth's ionosphere means the description of the variability of the vertical TEC (Total Electron Content) in dependence of geographic latitude and longitude, height, diurnal and seasonal variation as well as solar activity. Within the project GIOMO (next Generation near real-time IOnospheric MOdels) the objectives are the identification and consolidation of improved ionospheric modelling technologies. The global models Klobuchar (GPS) and NeQuick (currently in use by EGNOS, in future used by Galileo) are compared to the IGS (International GNSS Service) Final GIM (Global Ionospheric Map). Additionally a RIM (Regional Ionospheric Map) for Europe provided by CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is investigated. Furthermore the OLG (Observatorium Lustbühel Graz) regional models are calculated for two test beds with different latitudes and extensions (Western Austria and the Aegean region). There are three different approaches, two RIMs are based on spherical harmonics calculated either from code or phase measurements and one RIM is based on a Taylor series expansion around a central point estimated from zero-difference observations. The benefits of regional models are the local flexibility using a dense network of GNSS stations. Near real-time parameters are provided within ten minutes after every clock hour. All models have been compared according to their general behavior, the ability to react upon extreme solar events and the robustness of estimation. A ranking of the different models showed a preference for the RIMs while the global models should be used within a fall-back strategy.

  15. Salient cues improve prospective remembering in Korsakoff's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altgassen, Mareike; Ariese, Laura; Wester, Arie J; Kessels, Roy P C

    2016-06-01

    Korsakoff's syndrome is characterized by deficits in episodic memory and executive functions. Both cognitive functions are needed to remember to execute delayed intentions (prospective memory, PM), an ability that is crucial for independent living in everyday life. So far, PM has only been targeted by one study in Korsakoff's syndrome. This study explored the effects of executive control demands on PM to shed further light on a possible interdependence of memory and executive functions in Korsakoff's syndrome, Twenty-five individuals with Korsakoff's syndrome and 23 chronic alcoholics (without amnesia) performed a categorization task into which a PM task was embedded that put either high or low demands on executive control processes (using low vs. high salient cues). Overall, Korsakoff patients had fewer PM hits than alcoholic controls. Across groups, participants had fewer PM hits when cues were low salient as compared to high salient. Korsakoff patients performed better on PM when highly salient cues were presented than cues of low salience, while there were no differential effects for alcoholic controls. While overall Korsakoff patients' showed a global PM deficit, the extent of this deficit was moderated by the executive control demands of the task applied. This indicated further support for an interrelation of executive functions and memory performance in Korsakoff. Positive clinical implications of the work Prospective memory (PM) performance in Korsakoff's syndrome is related to executive control load. Increasing cues' salience improves PM performance in Korsakoff's syndrome. Salient visual aids may be used in everyday life to improve Korsakoff individuals' planning and organization skills. Cautions or limitations of the study Results were obtained in a structured laboratory setting and need to be replicated in a more naturalistic setting to assess their transferability to everyday life. Given the relatively small sample size, individual predictors of PM

  16. Energy model in regional energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mura, P.G.; Baccoli, R.; Carlini, U.; Innamorati, R.; Mariotti, S.

    2005-01-01

    In this report is presented a computational model for analysis of energy, materials and mass flux in a complex energy system, at regional scale level. Specifically is described a calculation model of electric power generation for emission forecasting of CO 2 , SO x , NO x , particulate matter, ashes, limestone, chalks [it

  17. Depth-Aware Salient Object Detection and Segmentation via Multiscale Discriminative Saliency Fusion and Bootstrap Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hangke; Liu, Zhi; Du, Huan; Sun, Guangling; Le Meur, Olivier; Ren, Tongwei

    2017-09-01

    This paper proposes a novel depth-aware salient object detection and segmentation framework via multiscale discriminative saliency fusion (MDSF) and bootstrap learning for RGBD images (RGB color images with corresponding Depth maps) and stereoscopic images. By exploiting low-level feature contrasts, mid-level feature weighted factors and high-level location priors, various saliency measures on four classes of features are calculated based on multiscale region segmentation. A random forest regressor is learned to perform the discriminative saliency fusion (DSF) and generate the DSF saliency map at each scale, and DSF saliency maps across multiple scales are combined to produce the MDSF saliency map. Furthermore, we propose an effective bootstrap learning-based salient object segmentation method, which is bootstrapped with samples based on the MDSF saliency map and learns multiple kernel support vector machines. Experimental results on two large datasets show how various categories of features contribute to the saliency detection performance and demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves the better performance on both saliency detection and salient object segmentation.

  18. Python Program to Select HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Clare; Lamarche, Cody; Vishwas, Amit; Stacey, Gordon J.

    2016-01-01

    HII regions are areas of singly ionized Hydrogen formed by the ionizing radiaiton of upper main sequence stars. The infrared fine-structure line emissions, particularly Oxygen, Nitrogen, and Neon, can give important information about HII regions including gas temperature and density, elemental abundances, and the effective temperature of the stars that form them. The processes involved in calculating this information from observational data are complex. Models, such as those provided in Rubin 1984 and those produced by Cloudy (Ferland et al, 2013) enable one to extract physical parameters from observational data. However, the multitude of search parameters can make sifting through models tedious. I digitized Rubin's models and wrote a Python program that is able to take observed line ratios and their uncertainties and find the Rubin or Cloudy model that best matches the observational data. By creating a Python script that is user friendly and able to quickly sort through models with a high level of accuracy, this work increases efficiency and reduces human error in matching HII region models to observational data.

  19. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  20. Observance and development of salient quality overprint for tablecloths embroidery with use of RFID technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Strauszová

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Mission of this paper is to enable those interested in observance and development quality embroidery typical of the region use with RFID technologies for designing, implementing and providing overprint for tablecloths embroidery. The starting point is present situation and method of observance and development of overprint embroidery. The solution is in scanning of patterns and their saving into database of industrial patterns with implemented RFID tag. This will allow indentifying, evaluating and using overprint for tablecloths embroidery. RFID technology can be applied for observance and development of salient quality any products of individual, organizations and their protected pattern and support creative and innovative acting of individuals and organizations in region. The paper is intended especially for specialists, who are interested in issue observance salient quality in sense of cultural heritage of regions. The paper has been compiled in connection with resolving project KEGA 3/6411/08 Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to a university-wide bilingual study programme.

  1. OBSERVANCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF SALIENT QUALITY OVERPRINT FOR TABLECLOTHS EMBROIDERY WITH USE OF RFID TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRISTÍNA ZGODAVOVÁ

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Mission of this paper is to enable those interested in observance and development quality embroidery typical of the region use with RFID technologies for designing, implementing and providing overprint for tablecloths embroidery. The starting point is present situation and method of observance and development of overprint embroidery. The solution is in scanning of patterns and their saving into database of industrial patterns with implemented RFID tag. This will allow indentifying, evaluating and using overprint for tablecloths embroidery. RFID technology can be applied for observance and development of salient quality any products of individual, organizations and their protected pattern and support creative and innovative acting of individuals and organizations in region. The paper is intended especially for specialists, who are interested in issue observance salient quality in sense of cultural heritage of regions. The paper has been compiled in connection with resolving project KEGA 3/6411/08 Transformation of the already existing study programme Management of production quality to a university-wide bilingual study programme.

  2. Modeling of regional warehouse network generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Pavel Vladimirovich

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the factors that has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation’s regions is the logistics infrastructure. It provides integrated transportation and distribution service of material flows. One of the main elements of logistics infrastructure is a storage infrastructure, which includes distribution center, distribution-and-sortout and sortout warehouses. It is the most expedient to place distribution center in the vicinity of the regional center. One of the tasks of the distribution network creation within the regions of the Russian Federation is to determine the location, capacity and number of stores. When determining regional network location of general purpose warehouses methodological approaches to solving the problems of location of production and non-production can be used which depend on various economic factors. The mathematical models for solving relevant problems are the deployment models. However, the existing models focus on the dimensionless power storage. The purpose of the given work is to develop a model to determine the optimal location of general-purpose warehouses on the Russian Federation area. At the first stage of the work, the authors assess the main economic indicators influencing the choice of the location of general purpose warehouses. An algorithm for solving the first stage, based on ABC, discriminant and cluster analysis were proposed by the authors in earlier papers. At the second stage the specific locations of general purpose warehouses and their power is chosen to provide the cost minimization for the construction and subsequent maintenance of warehouses and transportation heterogeneous products. In order to solve this problem the authors developed a mathematical model that takes into account the possibility of delivery in heterogeneous goods from suppliers and manufacturers in the distribution and storage sorting with specified set of capacities. The model allows

  3. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Auditory processing for contrast enhancement of salient communication vocalizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Alex G; Lin, Frank; Liu, Robert

    2013-06-02

    In a natural acoustic environment, coherent representations of auditory objects and sources are streamed from the myriad sounds that enter our ears. Features of those sounds that are familiar and behaviorally salient to us are detected and discriminated into invariant precepts that inform us about our external world. Research into how this occurs is increasingly converging on the idea that there is a transformation from the auditory periphery wherein an initial acoustically faithful representation by neurons becomes progressively altered to enhance the population neural representation of perceptually relevant aspects of the sound. How this occurs may vary for sounds whose meanings are acquired in different ways, perhaps depending on what actions and decisions must be executed upon recognition. We have investigated this process in a natural social context in which mouse mothers "learn" about the meaning of pup ultrasound vocalizations through their maternal care. Here we discuss our recent studies in awake mice using electrophysiological, behavioral, immunohistochemical and computational methods. Our results suggest that experience with natural vocalizations may alter core auditory cortical neural responses so that the contrast in activity across the neural population enhances the detection and discrimination of salient calls.

  5. Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Julia S; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M; Ronan, Kevin R

    2013-09-01

    Prior research has found little or no direct link between beliefs about earthquake risk and household preparedness. Furthermore, only limited work has been conducted on how people's beliefs influence the nature and number of preparedness measures adopted. To address this gap, 48 qualitative interviews were undertaken with residents in three urban locations in New Zealand subject to seismic risk. The study aimed to identify the diverse hazard and preparedness-related beliefs people hold and to articulate how these are influenced by public education to encourage preparedness. The study also explored how beliefs and competencies at personal, social, and environmental levels interact to influence people's risk management choices. Three main categories of beliefs were found: hazard beliefs; preparedness beliefs; and personal beliefs. Several salient beliefs found previously to influence the preparedness process were confirmed by this study, including beliefs related to earthquakes being an inevitable and imminent threat, self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, personal responsibility, responsibility for others, and beliefs related to denial, fatalism, normalization bias, and optimistic bias. New salient beliefs were also identified (e.g., preparedness being a "way of life"), as well as insight into how some of these beliefs interact within the wider informational and societal context. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Modeling Regional Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissonnade, A.; Hallegate, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Schlumberger, M.; Onur, T.

    2007-05-01

    Common features of natural disasters are intense regional impacts and the need for assessing their economic impacts on the construction sectors. The years 2004 and 2005 were record-setting time for natural disasters with major disasters or catastrophic (Cat) events all around the world with dramatic consequences in human lives and economic losses around the world, affecting developed and developing countries. Although there is a large body of literature on assessing the impact of cat events, there is little available research on the quantification and modeling of the regional economic impact of such events on the cost and length of reconstruction. Current available econometric models have serious limitations because they need detailed information for modeling the complex interactions between the different stakeholders of the economy at a regional level that is generally not available. Also, very little research was performed for quantifying the demand surge, defined as the sudden increase in the cost of repairs due to amplified payments, following a hurricane or a series of hurricane events or other natural disasters. Demand surge is an important component of the overall economic impact of cat events and there is a need to better quantify it. This paper presents results of a research program that started after the 2004 and 2005 U.S. hurricane seasons. A large data set of economic and observed losses resulting from the hurricanes that affected Florida and the Gulf states in the US was collected at county level. This provided us with the basis for assessing the change in repair costs before and after these historical events, to quantify the demand surge (after removing the underlying baseline trends) at several dozens of locations across the areas affected, and to provide information on how the changes in demand surge vary spatially and temporally in affected areas for which the amount of structure losses were reported. A parallel research effort was undertaken for

  7. Regional geothermal 3D modelling in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, S. E.; Balling, N.; Bording, T. S.; Nielsen, S. B.

    2012-04-01

    Weichselian glaciation is included in the model procedure. The ability of MODFLOW for simulating heat conduction is demonstrated in simple test cases. The regional geothermal model is then utilized for modelling the subsurface temperature distribution and contouring updated temperature maps for geothermal reservoirs in Denmark.

  8. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  9. Landscape modelling at Regional to Continental scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.

    Most work on simulating landscape evolution has been focused at scales of about 1 Ha, there are still limitations, particularly in understanding the links between hillslope process rates and climate, soils and channel initiation. However, the need for integration with GCM outputs and with Continental Geosystems now imposes an urgent need for scaling up to Regional and Continental scales. This is reinforced by a need to incorporate estimates of soil erosion and desertification rates into national and supra-national policy. Relevant time-scales range from decadal to geological. Approaches at these regional to continental scales are critical to a fuller collaboration between geomorphologists and others interested in Continental Geosystems. Two approaches to the problem of scaling up are presented here for discussion. The first (MEDRUSH) is to embed representative hillslope flow strips into sub-catchments within a larger catchment of up to 5,000 km2. The second is to link one-dimensional models of SVAT type within DEMs at up to global scales (CSEP/SEDWEB). The MEDRUSH model is being developed as part of the EU Desertification Programme (MEDALUS project), primarily for semi-natural vegetation in southern Europe over time spans of up to 100 years. Catchments of up to 2500 km2 are divided into 50-200 sub-catchments on the basis of flow paths derived from DEMs with a horizontal resolution of 50 m or better. Within each sub-catchment a representative flow strip is selected and Hydrology, Sediment Transport and Vegetation change are simulated in detail for the flow strip, using a 1 hour time step. Changes within each flow strip are transferred back to the appropriate sub-catchment and flows of water and sediment are then routed through the channel network, generating changes in flood plain morphology.

  10. Improved regional climate modelling through dynamical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corney, Stuart; Grose, Michael; Holz, Greg; White, Chris; Bennett, James; Gaynor, Suzie; Bindoff, Nathan; Katzfey, Jack; McGregor, John

    2010-01-01

    Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide the best estimates for assessing potential changes to our climate on a global scale out to the end of this century. Because coupled GCMs have a fairly coarse resolution they do not provide a detailed picture of climate (and climate change) at the local scale. Tasmania, due to its diverse geography and range of climate over a small area is a particularly difficult region for drawing conclusions regarding climate change when relying solely on GCMs. The foundation of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project is to take the output produced by multiple GCMs, using multiple climate change scenarios, and use this output as input into the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale the GCM output. CCAM is a full atmospheric global general circulation model, formulated using a conformal-cubic grid that covers the globe but can be stretched to provide higher resolution in the area of interest (Tasmania). By modelling the atmosphere at a much finer scale than is possible using a coupled GCM we can more accurately capture the processes that drive Tasmania's weather/climate, and thus can more clearly answer the question of how Tasmania's climate will change in the future. We present results that show the improvements in capturing the local-scale climate and climate drivers that can be achieved through downscaling, when compared to a gridded observational data set. The underlying assumption of this work is that a better simulated current climatology will also produce a more credible climate change signal.

  11. Regional air quality modeling: North American and European perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steyn, D.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.; Yarwood, G.

    2013-01-01

    An overview of regional-scale quality modeling practices and perspectives in North America and Europe, highlighting the differences and commonalities in how regional-scale air quality modeling systems are being used and evaluated across both continents

  12. Design and analysis of a flux intensifying permanent magnet embedded salient pole wind generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yujing; Jin, Ping; Lin, Heyun; Yang, Hui; Lyu, Shukang

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents an improved flux intensifying permanent magnet embedded salient pole wind generator (FI-PMESPWG) with mirror symmetrical magnetizing directions permanent magnet (PM) for improving generator's performances. The air-gap flux densities, the output voltage, the cogging torque and the d- and q-axis inductances of FI-PMESPWG are all calculated and analyzed by using the finite element method (FEM). To highlight the advantages of the proposed FI-PMESPWG, an original permanent magnet embedded salient pole wind generator (PMESPWG) model is adopted for comparison under the same operating conditions. The calculating results show that the air-gap flux densities of FI-PMESPWG are intensified with the same magnet amounts because the PMs are set in a form of V shape in each pole. The difference between d-axis inductance and q-axis inductance of the proposed FI-PMESPWG is reduced. Thus, the output power of the proposed FI-PMESPWG reaches a higher value than that of the original PMESPWG at the same current phase angle. The cogging torque is diminished because the flux path is changed. All the analysis results indicate that the electromagnetic characteristics of the proposed FI-PMESPWG are significantly better than that of the original PMESPWG.

  13. Appraisals of Salient Visual Elements in Web Page Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Silvennoinen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Visual elements in user interfaces elicit emotions in users and are, therefore, essential to users interacting with different software. Although there is research on the relationship between emotional experience and visual user interface design, the focus has been on the overall visual impression and not on visual elements. Additionally, often in a software development process, programming and general usability guidelines are considered as the most important parts of the process. Therefore, knowledge of programmers’ appraisals of visual elements can be utilized to understand the web page designs we interact with. In this study, appraisal theory of emotion is utilized to elaborate the relationship of emotional experience and visual elements from programmers’ perspective. Participants (N=50 used 3E-templates to express their visual and emotional experiences of web page designs. Content analysis of textual data illustrates how emotional experiences are elicited by salient visual elements. Eight hierarchical visual element categories were found and connected to various emotions, such as frustration, boredom, and calmness, via relational emotion themes. The emotional emphasis was on centered, symmetrical, and balanced composition, which was experienced as pleasant and calming. The results benefit user-centered visual interface design and researchers of visual aesthetics in human-computer interaction.

  14. Simile: the most salient stylistic feature in Kelile and Demne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Mahmoodi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Kelile and Demne is one of the most salient samples of Persian technical prose rhetorical and semantic figures and figures of speech namely simile, metaphor, metonymy and irony are among the stylistic features of this book. Among these, simile, as the most influential imagination tool, play a dominant role in the illustrations of the book. In this article, simile has been analyzed and investigated in all its variations in Kelile and Demne. In this book, simile appears from its most laconic form (eloquent simile to its most extensive form. But the major feature of theirs is their outspokenness, explicitness and sometimes their novelty. Among the likening components, the range of image vocabulary is one of the likening features in this book. Also the point of similarity has been usually abstracted from man's states, shape, place, space, volume and generally affairs concerning visual and tactile senses. So, its perception is not too much difficult. The variety and extension of likening vehicles in this work are worth of contemplating. In analysis of simile on the credit of both parties, we can conclude that ratio-emotional similes are of the most frequent kinds of simile. And Nasrollah Monshi has extended the field of emotional similes and has manipulated the relations between objects in a novel way. Allegoric simile has been used abundantly in Kelile and Demne.  It justifies the didactic function of this text. Allegory approaches its main role in this book. i.e. arguing and convincing. The contents of allegories in this book are moral and political and in terms of from, they are anecdotes of animals and human beings. The types of similes on the credit of form - namely equalization similes implied comparative similes and subtrahend similes - have been also used. Among the salient features of this book, several images together or in interference with each other have been used in one word or sentence. Sometimes similes accompany other

  15. Simile: the most salient stylistic feature in Kelile and Demne

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Mahmoodi

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Kelile and Demne is one of the most salient samples of Persian technical prose rhetorical and semantic figures and figures of speech namely simile, metaphor, metonymy and irony are among the stylistic features of this book. Among these, simile, as the most influential imagination tool, play a dominant role in the illustrations of the book. In this article, simile has been analyzed and investigated in all its variations in Kelile and Demne. In this book, simile appears from its most laconic form (eloquent simile to its most extensive form. But the major feature of theirs is their outspokenness, explicitness and sometimes their novelty. Among the likening components, the range of image vocabulary is one of the likening features in this book. Also the point of similarity has been usually abstracted from man's states, shape, place, space, volume and generally affairs concerning visual and tactile senses. So, its perception is not too much difficult. The variety and extension of likening vehicles in this work are worth of contemplating. In analysis of simile on the credit of both parties, we can conclude that ratio-emotional similes are of the most frequent kinds of simile. And Nasrollah Monshi has extended the field of emotional similes and has manipulated the relations between objects in a novel way. Allegoric simile has been used abundantly in Kelile and Demne.  It justifies the didactic function of this text. Allegory approaches its main role in this book. i.e. arguing and convincing. The contents of allegories in this book are moral and political and in terms of from, they are anecdotes of animals and human beings. The types of similes on the credit of form - namely equalization similes implied comparative similes and subtrahend similes - have been also used. Among the salient features of this book, several images together or in interference with each other have been used in one word or sentence. Sometimes similes accompany other

  16. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  18. Regional air quality in the four corners studys region: modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nochumson, D.

    1982-01-01

    A two-dimensional Eulerian air pollutant transport model was used in an air quality study of the Four Corners region conducted for the National Commission on Air Quality. The regional modeling methodology and some sample results from the regional air quality analysis are presented. One major advantage of the regional transport model that was employed is that its solution involves the calculation of transfer coefficients that relate emissions to ambient concentrations and deposition and which can be used repeatedly to evaluate alternative scenarios and regulatory policies which represent different emission source configurations. The regional transport model was used in the calculation of the concentration and deposition of SO/sub 2/, SO/sub 4/, and primary fine particulates; and these estimates were used as inputs to regional atmospheric visibility and mass budget calculations. Previous studies have shown that the methods used in the regional air quality analysis give good agreement when comparing observed and estimated values.

  19. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  20. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  1. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  2. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  3. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  4. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    . The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10-50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency...... for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16-42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models...

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  6. Development of Models for Regional Cardiac Surgery Centers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Choon Seon Park

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study aimed to develop the models for regional cardiac surgery centers, which take regional characteristics into consideration, as a policy measure that could alleviate the concentration of cardiac surgery in the metropolitan area and enhance the accessibility for patients who reside in the regions. Methods: To develop the models and set standards for the necessary personnel and facilities for the initial management plan, we held workshops, debates, and conference meetings with various experts. Results: After partitioning the plan into two parts (the operational autonomy and the functional comprehensiveness, three models were developed: the ‘independent regional cardiac surgery center’ model, the ‘satellite cardiac surgery center within hospitals’ model, and the ‘extended cardiac surgery department within hospitals’ model. Proposals on personnel and facility management for each of the models were also presented. A regional cardiac surgery center model that could be applied to each treatment area was proposed, which was developed based on the anticipated demand for cardiac surgery. The independent model or the satellite model was proposed for Chungcheong, Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang area, where more than 500 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. The extended model was proposed as most effective for the Gangwon and Jeju area, where more than 200 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. Conclusion: The operation of regional cardiac surgery centers with high caliber professionals and quality resources such as optimal equipment and facility size, should enhance regional healthcare accessibility and the quality of cardiac surgery in South Korea.

  7. Facial Expression Recognition with Fusion Features Extracted from Salient Facial Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanpeng Liu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the pattern recognition domain, deep architectures are currently widely used and they have achieved fine results. However, these deep architectures make particular demands, especially in terms of their requirement for big datasets and GPU. Aiming to gain better results without deep networks, we propose a simplified algorithm framework using fusion features extracted from the salient areas of faces. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm has achieved a better result than some deep architectures. For extracting more effective features, this paper firstly defines the salient areas on the faces. This paper normalizes the salient areas of the same location in the faces to the same size; therefore, it can extracts more similar features from different subjects. LBP and HOG features are extracted from the salient areas, fusion features’ dimensions are reduced by Principal Component Analysis (PCA and we apply several classifiers to classify the six basic expressions at once. This paper proposes a salient areas definitude method which uses peak expressions frames compared with neutral faces. This paper also proposes and applies the idea of normalizing the salient areas to align the specific areas which express the different expressions. As a result, the salient areas found from different subjects are the same size. In addition, the gamma correction method is firstly applied on LBP features in our algorithm framework which improves our recognition rates significantly. By applying this algorithm framework, our research has gained state-of-the-art performances on CK+ database and JAFFE database.

  8. Event-related potentials reveal increased distraction by salient global objects in older adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiegand, Iris; Finke, Kathrin; Töllner, Thomas

    Age-related changes in visual functions influence how older individuals perceive and react upon objects in their environment. In particular, older individuals might be more distracted by highly salient, irrelevant information. Kanizsa figures induce a ‘global precedence’ effect, which reflects...... a processing advantage for salient whole-object representations relative to configurations of local elements not inducing a global form. We investigated event-related potential (ERP) correlates of age-related decline in visual abilities, and specifically, distractibility by salient global objects in visual...

  9. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  10. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  11. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  12. Regional models - Emerging research tools for synoptic meteorologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyser, Daniel; Uccellini, Louis W.

    1987-01-01

    A number of regional-scale numerical weather prediction models are discussed together with their application to the study of the structure and the dynamics of mesoscale phenomena. Consideration is given to investigations of natural phenomena (such as midlatitude cyclones and related baroclinic disturbances; upper-level jet-front systems; surface frontal zones, squall lines, and rain bands; mesoscale convective systems; and severe-storm environments) in which two operational models and four research models are used for regional-model studies. It is shown that these models provide investigators with four-dimensional dynamically consistent data sets to supplement and extend those available from observations.

  13. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  14. Stochastic modelling of regional archaeomagnetic series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellio, G.; Gillet, N.; Bouligand, C.; Jault, D.

    2014-11-01

    We report a new method to infer continuous time-series of the declination, inclination and intensity of the magnetic field from archaeomagnetic data. Adopting a Bayesian perspective, we need to specify a priori knowledge about the time evolution of the magnetic field. It consists in a time correlation function that we choose to be compatible with present knowledge about the geomagnetic time spectra. The results are presented as distributions of possible values for the declination, inclination or intensity. We find that the methodology can be adapted to account for the age uncertainties of archaeological artefacts and we use Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore the possible dates of observations. We apply the method to intensity data sets from Mari, Syria and to intensity and directional data sets from Paris, France. Our reconstructions display more rapid variations than previous studies and we find that the possible values of geomagnetic field elements are not necessarily normally distributed. Another output of the model is better age estimates of archaeological artefacts.

  15. On the construction of a regional atmospheric climate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J. H.; Van Meijgaard, E.

    1992-01-01

    A Regional Atmospheric Climate Model which combines the physical parameterization package of the General Circulation or Climate Model (ECHAM) used at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, and the dynamics package of the Nordic - Dutch - Irish Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), has been...

  16. Analysis of Salient Feature Jitter in the Cochlea for Objective Prediction of Temporally Localized Distortion in Synthesized Speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenliang Lu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporally localized distortions account for the highest variance in subjective evaluation of coded speech signals (Sen (2001 and Hall (2001. The ability to discern and decompose perceptually relevant temporally localized coding noise from other types of distortions is both of theoretical importance as well as a valuable tool for deploying and designing speech synthesis systems. The work described within uses a physiologically motivated cochlear model to provide a tractable analysis of salient feature trajectories as processed by the cochlea. Subsequent statistical analysis shows simple relationships between the jitter of these trajectories and temporal attributes of the Diagnostic Acceptability Measure (DAM.

  17. Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da

    1983-01-01

    A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

  18. A multi-region approach to modeling subsurface flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwo, J.P.; Yeh, G.T.; Wilson, G.V.

    1990-01-01

    In this approach the media are assumed to contain n pore-regions at any physical point. Each region has different pore size and hydrologic parameters. Inter-region exchange is approximated by a linear transfer process. Based on the mass balance principle, a system of equations governing the flow and mass exchange in structured or aggregated soils is derived. This system of equations is coupled through linear transfer terms representing the interchange among different pore regions. A numerical MUlti-Region Flow (MURF) model, using the Galerkin finite element method to facilitate the treatment of local and field-scale heterogeneities, is developed to solve the system of equations. A sparse matrix solver is used to solve the resulting matrix equation, which makes the application of MURF to large field problems feasible in terms of CPU time and storage limitations. MURF is first verified by applying it to a ponding infiltration problem over a hill slope, which is a single-region problem and has been previously simulated by a single-region model. Very good agreement is obtained between the results from the two different models. The MURF code is thus partially verified. It is then applied to a two-region fractured medium to investigate the effects of multi-region approach on the flow field. The results are comparable to that obtained by other investigators. (Author) (15 refs., 6 figs., tab.)

  19. Modelling regional land use: the quest for the appropriate method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soltani Largani, A.

    2013-01-01

    The demand for spatially-explicit predictions of regional crop-yield patterns is increasing. An approach to assess a priori and/or future ranges of alternative scenarios spatial yield patterns at the regional scale is the application of mechanistic crop growth simulation models (CGSMs) (e.g.

  20. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  5. Modernising the Framework for Arbitration in Jamaica - Some Salient Points

    OpenAIRE

    Onyema, Emilia

    2010-01-01

    Comments made on the text of a working draft law for a new arbitration regime in Jamaica. I argue in my comments that Jamaica should adapt the UNCITRAL Model Law on International Commercial Arbitration and use this text as the basis for its new arbitration law.

  6. Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

  7. Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode

    2017-07-01

    We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

  8. Central Africa: Salient Security Issues and Uncertain Political Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    economic and strategic interests.26 Third, for new comers like China , the rush for economic gains is achieved with little regard for democracy or human...rights. China is now openly using its training programs for foreign officials to promote aspects of the Chinese model of development.27 The border...issue contributes to and aggravates the threat, economically, and socially. Overpopulated Rwanda is home to a total of 55,645 refugees, out of whom

  9. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  10. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  11. Review of the recent regional climate modelling studies of the Adriatic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guettler, Ivan

    2017-04-01

    Adriatic region is characterized by the distinct topographical and coastline structures. This leads to the specific climate regimes, and the formation of e.g. strong bora/Bura flows. The results of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative and most recent DHMZ simulations using regional climate model RegCM4 will be presented and discussed. Planetary boundary layer quantities such as the near-surface air temperature, total precipitation amount and near-surface wind will be explored in terms of both systematic errors of the RCMs and their possible climate change projections for the rest of the 21st century. Finally, recent results concerning analytical modelling of the katabatic and anabatic flows will be presented, and possible further refinements of these models will be suggested.

  12. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  13. Local distortion resistant image watermarking relying on salient feature extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolaidis, Athanasios

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this article is to present a novel method for region based image watermarking that can tolerate local image distortions to a substantially greater extent than existing methods. The first stage of the method relies on computing a normalized version of the original image using image moments. The next step is to extract a set of feature points that will act as centers of the watermark embedding areas. Four different existing feature extraction techniques are tested: Radial Symmetry Transform (RST), scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT), speeded up robust features (SURF) and features from accelerated segment test (FAST). Instead of embedding the watermark in the DCT domain of the normalized image, we follow the equivalent procedure of first performing the inverse DCT of the original watermark, inversely normalizing it and finally embedding it in the original image. This is done in order to minimize image distortion imposed by inversely normalizing the normalized image to obtain the original. The detection process consists of normalizing the input image and extracting the feature points of the normalized image, after which a correlation detector is employed to detect the possibly inserted watermark in the normalized image. Experimental results demonstrate the relative performance of the four different feature extraction techniques under both geometrical and signal processing operations, as well as the overall superiority of the method against two state-of-the-art techniques that are quite robust as far as local image distortions are concerned.

  14. The Effect of Resolution on Detecting Visually Salient Preattentive Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    information theoretic approach. Journal of Vision . 2009;9(3):1–24. 4. Harrison A, Etienne-Cummings R. A Entropy based Saliency model using Natural...in free viewing of dynamic natural scenes. Journal of Vision . 2009;9(7):1–16. 6. Zhao Q, Koch C. Learning a saliency map using fixated locations in...natural scenes. Journal of Vision . 2011;11(3):1–15. 7. Scenes and objects database. Cambridge (MA): Massachusetts Institute of Technology; (n.d

  15. Does heightened affect make smoking cues more salient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiffman, Saul; Gwaltney, Chad J

    2008-08-01

    Negative affect (NA) states are robustly related to relapse. However, the mechanisms for this relationship are not well understood. Whereas most models have proposed that NA directly promotes lapsing, some models suggest that NA may promote lapses indirectly by increasing reactivity to smoking cues. This hypothesis was tested in secondary analyses of a study in which 248 smokers used ecological momentary assessment to self-monitor affective valence, smoking cues, and lapses during an attempt to quit smoking. The smoking cues the authors examined were others' smoking and consumption of alcohol or coffee. The odds of lapsing when exposed to smoking cues were compared across conditions of positive affect, neutral affect, and NA. Consistent main effects of affective valence were seen but not the hypothesized interaction. Indeed, analyses showed that the effect of cues was typically diminished under conditions of NA. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that smoking cues and lapsing are more closely linked under NA conditions. Copyright (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Somatosensory BOLD fMRI reveals close link between salient blood pressure changes and the murine neuromatrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimann, Henning Matthias; Todiras, Mihail; Hodge, Russ; Huelnhagen, Till; Millward, Jason Michael; Turner, Robert; Seeliger, Erdmann; Bader, Michael; Pohlmann, Andreas; Niendorf, Thoralf

    2018-05-15

    The neuromatrix, or "pain matrix", is a network of cortical brain areas which is activated by noxious as well as salient somatosensory stimulation. This has been studied in mice and humans using blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI. Here we demonstrate that BOLD effects observed in the murine neuromatrix in response to salient somatosensory stimuli are prone to reflect mean arterial blood pressure (MABP) changes, rather than neural activity. We show that a standard electrostimulus typically used in murine somatosensory fMRI can induce substantial elevations in MABP. Equivalent drug-induced MABP changes - without somatosensory stimulation - evoked BOLD patterns in the neuromatrix strikingly similar to those evoked by electrostimulation. This constitutes a serious caveat for murine fMRI. The regional specificity of these BOLD patterns can be attributed to the co-localization of the neuromatrix with large draining veins. Based on these findings we propose a cardiovascular support mechanism whereby abrupt elevations in MABP provide additional energy supply to the neuromatrix and other essential brain areas in fight-or-flight situations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Structural analysis of Nalagarh lobe, NW Himalaya: implication of thrusting across tectonic edge of NW limb of Nahan salient, Himachal Pradesh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhakuni, S. S.; Philip, G.; Suresh, N.

    2017-07-01

    associated with the kinematics of the transition between the Nahan salient and Kangra recess. The transition is a transfer zone forming a long pre-Himalayan lineament across which the stratigraphic set of the Tethys and Lesser Himalaya is different. The study suggests that the lateral ramp on the Main Himalayan Thrust does not exist beneath the apex and also beneath the SE limb of the salient in the Sub-Himalayan region. This ramp should be present only beneath near end point of SW limb of the Nahan salient.

  18. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-30

    of these models is unrealistic because the Earth’s crust appears to be the most structurally and compositionally heterogeneous part of the planet ...segment is extracted (heavy dash) and scaled to fill the gap ( heav arrows). Scaling is performed in the g(p) domain, using a factor that varies linearly...Phys. Earth Planet . Interiors, 113, 11-24. Bonddr, I., and V. Ryaboy (1997). Regional travel-time tables for the Baltic Shield region, Technical

  19. MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  20. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  1. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  2. Photoionization Modelling of HII Region with Stellar Wind Bubble Inside

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, R. V., Melekh, B. Ya.

    2009-12-01

    The last results obtained from optimized photoionization modelling of HII region show a lack of Lyman continuum (Lyc) quanta in wavelength range 912 - 504 Å. It could be explained by the ionizing radiation penetrating the very thin and dense envelope of nebular plasma with high density. Presence of such envelope in HII region surrounding a starburst could be explained by a superwind bubble formation. For detailed analysis the multicomponent grid of photoionization models was culculated with ISM grains included. In this paper the comparative analysis of emission line spectra obtained from multicomponent modelling is presented.

  3. THE HYDRODYNAMICAL MODELS OF THE COMETARY COMPACT H ii REGION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Feng-Yao; Zhu, Qing-Feng [Astronomy Department, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026 (China); Li, Juan; Wang, Jun-Zhi [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai (China); Zhang, Jiang-Shui, E-mail: zhufya@mail.ustc.edu.cn, E-mail: zhuqf@ustc.edu.cn, E-mail: lijuan@shao.ac.cn, E-mail: jzwang@shao.ac.cn, E-mail: jszhang@gzhu.edu.cn [Center for Astrophysics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou (China)

    2015-10-10

    We have developed a full numerical method to study the gas dynamics of cometary ultracompact H ii regions, and associated photodissociation regions (PDRs). The bow-shock and champagne-flow models with a 40.9/21.9 M{sub ⊙} star are simulated. In the bow-shock models, the massive star is assumed to move through dense (n = 8000 cm{sup −3}) molecular material with a stellar velocity of 15 km s{sup −1}. In the champagne-flow models, an exponential distribution of density with a scale height of 0.2 pc is assumed. The profiles of the [Ne ii] 12.81 μm and H{sub 2} S(2) lines from the ionized regions and PDRs are compared for two sets of models. In champagne-flow models, emission lines from the ionized gas clearly show the effect of acceleration along the direction toward the tail due to the density gradient. The kinematics of the molecular gas inside the dense shell are mainly due to the expansion of the H ii region. However, in bow-shock models the ionized gas mainly moves in the same direction as the stellar motion. The kinematics of the molecular gas inside the dense shell simply reflects the motion of the dense shell with respect to the star. These differences can be used to distinguish two sets of models.

  4. System and method for smoothing a salient rotor in electrical machines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raminosoa, Tsarafidy; Alexander, James Pellegrino; El-Refaie, Ayman Mohamed Fawzi; Torrey, David A.

    2016-12-13

    An electrical machine exhibiting reduced friction and windage losses is disclosed. The electrical machine includes a stator and a rotor assembly configured to rotate relative to the stator, wherein the rotor assembly comprises a rotor core including a plurality of salient rotor poles that are spaced apart from one another around an inner hub such that an interpolar gap is formed between each adjacent pair of salient rotor poles, with an opening being defined by the rotor core in each interpolar gap. Electrically non-conductive and non-magnetic inserts are positioned in the gaps formed between the salient rotor poles, with each of the inserts including a mating feature formed an axially inner edge thereof that is configured to mate with a respective opening being defined by the rotor core, so as to secure the insert to the rotor core against centrifugal force experienced during rotation of the rotor assembly.

  5. Red to green or fast to slow? Infants' visual working memory for "just salient differences".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldy, Zsuzsa; Blaser, Erik

    2013-01-01

    In this study, 6-month-old infants' visual working memory for a static feature (color) and a dynamic feature (rotational motion) was compared. Comparing infants' use of different features can only be done properly if experimental manipulations to those features are equally salient (Kaldy & Blaser, 2009; Kaldy, Blaser, & Leslie, 2006). The interdimensional salience mapping method was used to find two objects that each were one Just Salient Difference from a common baseline object (N = 16). These calibrated stimuli were then used in a subsequent two-alternative forced-choice preferential looking memory test (N = 28). Results showed that infants noted the color change, but not the equally salient change in rotation speed. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  6. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  7. Regional knowledge economy development indicative planning system conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Davidovna Vaisman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the research is the processes of Russian knowledge economy development, its progress on the regional level is taken as a theme, which determined the purpose of research: development of the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model. The methodological base of the research is the knowledge economy concept and supply and demand theory, the methods of comparative and system analysis and theoretical modeling; common generalization and classification methods and regression models are used in the work. As a result, we managed to create the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model, which includes the choice of the types of indicative plans and the justification for the complex of indicators according to the stated requirements to this complex. The model of supply and demand for knowledge dependency from the knowledge cost, allowing to determine the acceptable range for the indicators proceeding from the demand and supply levels and their interrelation, is developed. The obtained results may be used by the regional government authorities while planning the regional innovative development and consulting companies while making the proposals for this development

  8. Illuminating the role of cholinergic signaling in circuits of attention and emotionally salient behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio eLuchicchi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Acetylcholine (ACh signaling underlies specific aspects of cognitive functions and behaviors, including attention, learning, memory and motivation. Alterations in ACh signaling are involved in the pathophysiology of multiple neuropsychiatric disorders. In the central nervous system, ACh transmission is mainly guaranteed by dense innervation of select cortical and subcortical regions from disperse groups of cholinergic neurons within the basal forebrain (e.g. diagonal band, medial septal, nucleus basalis and the pontine-mesencephalic nuclei, respectively. Despite the fundamental role of cholinergic signaling in the CNS and the long standing knowledge of the organization of cholinergic circuitry, remarkably little is known about precisely how ACh release modulates cortical and subcortical neural activity and the behaviors these circuits subserve. Growing interest in cholinergic signaling in the CNS focuses on the mechanism(s of action by which endogenously released ACh regulates cognitive functions, acting as a neuromodulator and /or as a direct transmitter via nicotinic and muscarinic receptors. The development of optogenetic techniques has provided a valuable toolbox with which we can address these questions, as it allows the selective manipulation of the excitability of cholinergic inputs to the diverse array of cholinergic target fields within cortical and subcortical domains. Here, we review recent papers that use the light-sensitive opsins in the cholinergic system to elucidate the role of ACh in circuits related to attention and emotionally salient behaviors. In particular, we highlight recent optogenetic studies which have tried to disentangle the precise role of ACh in the modulation of cortical-, hippocampal- and striatal-dependent functions.

  9. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  10. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

    2004-01-01

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

  11. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TOMAS,R.FISCHER,W.JAIN,A.LUO,Y.PILAT,F.

    2004-07-05

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability.

  12. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  13. A Robust Approach to Segment Desired Object Based on Salient Colors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jérôme Da Rugna

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a clustering-based color segmentation method where the desired object is focused on. As classical methods suffer from a lack of robustness, salient colors appearing in the object are used to intuitively tune the algorithm. These salient colors are extracted according to a psychovisual scheme and a peak-finding step. Results on various test sequences, covering a representative set of outdoor real videos, show the improvement when compared to a simple implementation of the same K-means oriented segmentation algorithm with ad hoc parameter setting strategy and with the well-known mean-shift algorithm.

  14. Environmental Condition and its Impact on Landscape Description by Salient Element

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, S.; Malek, M. R.; Soleimani, Z.; Arabsheibani, R.

    2015-12-01

    Describing a landscape means making link between concepts of visible features and people's perception. Most landscape description methods underline salient entities which are a key trigger for wayfinding problems and tourism management. Searching for a better understanding of landscape descriptions implies to explore and identify the main visual properties that differentiate between landscapes depending on both human cognition and environmental condition. Furthermore, this environmental condition affects the credibility of data produced by people, particularly when using Volunteered Geographical Information systems which brings forward a huge amount of information. Then this paper proposes an approach to emerge patterns by which describing landscape in general and choosing salient objects in particular have been influenced.

  15. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  16. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  17. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere......-wave coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... in climate models for a realistic description of processes over sea....

  18. SST Diurnal Variability: Regional Extent & Implications in Atmospheric Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob L.

    2013-01-01

    The project Sea Surface Temperature Diurnal Variability: Regional Extent and Implications in Atmospheric Modeling (SSTDV: R.EX.- IM.A.M.) was initiated within the framework of the European Space Agency's Support to Science Element (ESA STSE). The main focus is twofold: i) to characterize...... and quantify regional diurnal warming from the experimental MSG/SEVIRI hourly SST fields, for the period 2006-2012. ii) To investigate the impact of the increased SST temporal resolution in the atmospheric model WRF, in terms of modeled 10-m winds and surface heat fluxes. Withing this context, 3 main tasks...... SST variability on atmospheric modeling is the prime goal of the third and final task. This will be examined by increasing the temporal resolution of the SST initial conditions in WRF and by evaluating the WRF included diurnal scheme. Validation of the modeled winds will be performed against 10m ASAR...

  19. The Regional Nature of Global Challenges. A Need and Strategy for Integrated Regional Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hibbard, Kathleen A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Janetos, Anthony C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-01-31

    In this paper, we explore the regional nature of global environmental challenges. We take a broad approach by examining the scientific foundation that is needed to support policy and decision making and identifying some of the most important barriers to progress that are truly scale-dependent. In so doing, we hope to show that understanding global environmental changes requires understanding a number of intrinsically regional phenomena, and that successful decision making likewise requires an integrated approach that accounts for a variety of regional Earth system processes—which we define to include both human activities and environmental systems that operate or interact primarily at sub-continental scales. Understanding regional processes and phenomena, including regional decision-making processes and information needs, should thus be an integral part of the global change research agenda. To address some of the key issues and challenges, we propose an integrated regional modeling approach that accounts for the dynamic interactions among physical, ecological, biogeochemical, and human processes and provides relevant information to regional decision makers and stakeholders.

  20. MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  1. Customization of regional climate model (RegCM4) over Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S.; Mandal, M.; Maity, S.

    2017-01-01

    The regional climate model (RegCM4) is customized for 10-year climate simulation over Indian region through sensitivity studies on cumulus convection and land surface parameterization schemes. The model is configured over 30° E-120° E and 15° S-45° N at 30-km horizontal resolution with 23 vertical levels. Six 10-year (1991-2000) simulations are conducted with the combinations of two land surface schemes (BATS, CLM3.5) and three cumulus convection schemes (Kuo, Grell, MIT). The simulated annual and seasonal climatology of surface temperature and precipitation are compared with CRU observations. The interannual variability of these two parameters is also analyzed. The results indicate that the model simulated climatology is sensitive to the convection as well as land surface parameterization. The analysis of surface temperature (precipitation) climatology indicates that the model with CLM produces warmer (dryer) climatology, particularly over India. The warmer (dryer) climatology is due to the higher sensible heat flux (lower evapotranspiration) in CLM. The model with MIT convection scheme simulated wetter and warmer climatology (higher precipitation and temperature) with smaller Bowen ratio over southern India compared to that with the Grell and Kuo schemes. This indicates that a land surface scheme produces warmer but drier climatology with sensible heating contributing to warming where as a convection scheme warmer but wetter climatology with latent heat contributing to warming. The climatology of surface temperature over India is better simulated by the model with BATS land surface model in combination with MIT convection scheme while the precipitation climatology is better simulated with BATS land surface model in combination with Grell convection scheme. Overall, the modeling system with the combination of Grell convection and BATS land surface scheme provides better climate simulation over the Indian region.

  2. Assessing The Policy Relevance of Regional Air Quality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    This work presents a framework for discussing the policy relevance of models, and regional air quality models in particular. We define four criteria: 1) The scientific status of the model; 2) Its ability to address primary environmental concerns; 3) The position of modeled environmental issues on the political agenda; and 4) The role of scientific input into the policy process. This framework is applied to current work simulating the transport of nitric acid in Asia with the ATMOS-N model, to past studies on air pollution transport in Europe with the EMEP model, and to future applications of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Models-3. The Lagrangian EMEP model provided critical input to the development of the 1994 Oslo and 1999 Gothenburg Protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transbound- ary Air Pollution, as well as to the development of EU directives, via its role as a component of the RAINS integrated assessment model. Our work simulating reactive nitrogen in Asia follows the European example in part, with the choice of ATMOS-N, a regional Lagrangian model to calculate source-receptor relationships for the RAINS- Asia integrated assessment model. However, given differences between ATMOS-N and the EMEP model, as well as differences between the scientific and political cli- mates facing Europe ten years ago and Asia today, the role of these two models in the policy process is very different. We characterize the different aspects of policy relevance between these models using our framework, and consider how the current generation US EPA air quality model compares, in light of its Eulerian structure, dif- ferent objectives, and the policy context of the US.

  3. RETADD: a Regional Trajectory And Diffusion-Deposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Begovich, C. L.; Murphy, B. D.; Nappo, Jr., C. J.

    1978-06-01

    The Regional Trajectory and Diffusion-Deposition Model (RETADD) is based upon a version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory's Regional-Continental Scale Transport, Diffusion, and Deposition Model. The FORTRAN IV computer model uses a trajectory analysis technique for estimating the transport and long-range diffusion of material emitted from a point source. The wind trajectory portion of the code uses observed upper air winds to compute the transport of the material. Ground level concentrations and depositions are computed by using the Gaussian plume equation for wind trajectories projected forward in time. Options are included to specify an upper bound for the mixed layer and a chemical decomposition rate for the effluent. The limitations to the technique are discussed, the equations and model are described, and listings of the program, input, and output are included.

  4. World Model in the European Gothic Novel and Regional Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zvolimbovskaya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a specificity of the world model in the European Gothic novel and its regional context. The model of the world and the concept of a person are considered as the basic criteria of modern humanitarian knowledge. The object of study is presented by the novels of Charlotte Bronte “Jane Eyre”, Abraham «Bram» Stoker “Dracula” and others.

  5. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

  6. A review of salient elements defining team collaboration in paediatric rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijhuis, B J G; Reinders-Messelink, H A; de Blécourt, A C E; Olijve, W G; Groothoff, J W; Nakken, H; Postema, K

    2007-03-01

    To explicate the complex process of team collaboration and identify salient elements of team collaboration in paediatric rehabilitation. After an initial search to define key features of team collaboration a systematic search on team collaboration and the key features was executed to identify salient elements. The systematic search was carried out in Index Medicus (MEDLINE), Educational Resource Information Clearinghouse (ERIC) and American Psychological Association (Psyc INFO) covering the period from January 1993 to December 2004. Based on title and abstract relevant publications were identified and qualitatively assessed by two reviewers. To facilitate the interpretation of the salient elements, the articles were also classified according to the criteria 'participants and setting' and 'research method'. Of the total of 930 identified publications 28 studies proved eligible and were subsequently assessed. The evaluation yielded 29 salient elements defining five key features of team collaboration (i.e. communication, decision making, goal setting, organization and team process). Parent involvement proved to play a dominant role and was mentioned in relation to all five features. Based on the results, rather than an underlying element, it is proposed to consider parent involvement as the sixth feature of team collaboration. The 29 distinctive elements of teamwork could be useful as a guideline and checklist for empirical studies and may help enhance multidisciplinary collaboration in paediatric care. However, additional exploratory research focusing on the way these elements interact with each other and the key features and whether they facilitate or restrict team collaboration is warranted.

  7. The Cost of Event-Based Prospective Memory: Salient Target Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Rebekah E.; Hunt, R. Reed; McVay, Jennifer C.; McConnell, Melissa D.

    2007-01-01

    Evidence has begun to accumulate showing that successful performance of event-based prospective memory (PM) comes at a cost to other ongoing activities. The current study builds on previous work by examining the cost associated with PM when the target event is salient. Target salience is among the criteria for automatic retrieval of intentions…

  8. Ten Salient Practices of Undergraduate Research Mentors: A Review of the Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Jenny Olin; Ackley-Holbrook, Elizabeth; Hall, Eric; Stewart, Kearsley; Walkington, Helen

    2015-01-01

    This paper identifies salient practices of faculty mentors of undergraduate research (UR) as indicated in the extensive literature of the past two decades on UR. The well-established benefits for students involved in UR are dependent, first and foremost, on high-quality mentoring. Mentorship is a defining feature of UR. As more and different types…

  9. The Impact of Salient Advertisements on Reading and Attention on Web Pages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simola, Jaana; Kuisma, Jarmo; Oorni, Anssi; Uusitalo, Liisa; Hyona, Jukka

    2011-01-01

    Human vision is sensitive to salient features such as motion. Therefore, animation and onset of advertisements on Websites may attract visual attention and disrupt reading. We conducted three eye tracking experiments with authentic Web pages to assess whether (a) ads are efficiently ignored, (b) ads attract overt visual attention and disrupt…

  10. Salient Key Features of Actual English Instructional Practices in Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Seghayer, Khalid

    2015-01-01

    This is a comprehensive review of the salient key features of the actual English instructional practices in Saudi Arabia. The goal of this work is to gain insights into the practices and pedagogic approaches to English as a foreign language (EFL) teaching currently employed in this country. In particular, we identify the following central features…

  11. Attentional Capture by Salient Distractors during Visual Search Is Determined by Temporal Task Demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiss, Monika; Grubert, Anna; Petersen, Anders

    2012-01-01

    The question whether attentional capture by salient but taskirrelevant visual stimuli is triggered in a bottom–up fashion or depends on top–down task settings is still unresolved. Strong support for bottom–up capture was obtained in the additional singleton task, in which search arrays were visible...

  12. Earliest Memories and Recent Memories of Highly Salient Events--Are They Similar?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Carole; Fowler, Tania; Brandeau, Katherine M.

    2015-01-01

    Four- to 11-year-old children were interviewed about 2 different sorts of memories in the same home visit: recent memories of highly salient and stressful events--namely, injuries serious enough to require hospital emergency room treatment--and their earliest memories. Injury memories were scored for amount of unique information, completeness…

  13. Sensorless Speed Control including zero speed of Non Salient PM Synchronous Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik

    This paper presents a position sensorless drive of non salient pole PM synchronous motors for all speeds including zero speed. Using adaptive Lyapunov design a new approach for the design of an observer is developed. The resulting scheme leads to a nonlinear full order observer for the motor states...

  14. Sensorless Speed Control including zero speed of Non Salient PM Synchronous Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a position sensorless drive of non salient pole PM synchronous motors for all speeds including zero speed. Using adaptive Lyapunov design a new approach for the design of an observer is developed. The resulting scheme leads to a nonlinear full order observer for the motor states...

  15. Sensorless speed Control including Zero Speed on Non Salient PM Synchronous Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a position sensorless drive of non salient pole PM synchronous motors for all speeds including zero speed. Using adaptive Lyapunov design a new approach for the design of an observer is developed. The resulting scheme leads to a nonlinear full order observer for the motor states...

  16. Torque Analysis With Saturation Effects for Non-Salient Single-Phase Permanent-Magnet Machines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Kaiyuan; Ritchie, Ewen

    2011-01-01

    The effects of saturation on torque production for non-salient, single-phase, permanent-magnet machines are studied in this paper. An analytical torque equation is proposed to predict the instantaneous torque with saturation effects. Compared to the existing methods, it is computationally faster......-element results, and experimental results obtained on a prototype single-phase permanent-magnet machine....

  17. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  19. On Some Oikonymic Models of the Eastern Lake Onega Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Zakharova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes several models of settlement naming present in Eastern Lake Onega region and reflecting different stages of its ethnolinguistic history. The author focuses on oikonyms suffixed with -itsy/-itchi and those containing Balto-Fennic words kontu, kondu, kond ‘peasant household’ and selgä, vuara ‘mountain’. The areal analysis shows that oikonyms in -itsy/-itchi resulted from adaptation of Vepsian and Karelian names and outline the ways of ancient migrations of the Russians from Lake Ladoga region to Svir River and Lake Onega regions (Prisvirye and Obonezhye, Eastern Lake Onega region being a peripheral zone of the area traced by the model in question. The author argues that the few settlement names with the stem Kond- have relatively late origins, most likely Vepsian, though for some toponyms the Karelian origin is not to be ruled out. The low productivity of the selgä oikonymic model and the absence of settlement names with the determinant -vara can be explained by the historical dominance of the naming patterns using the Russian term gora ‘mountain’ which brings this region closer to the territory of the Russian North. The areal, statistic and linguistic analysis of the settlement names of Eastern Lake Onega region testifies to its marginal position as related to the Vepsian territories on the South, as well as the Karelian territories on the West and the Northern Russian lands on the East. This peripheral, marginal position of the region is due to its geographic features, first and foremost, to its association with the transit waterway which was, in the past, the Vodla River.

  20. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...

  1. THE CENTRAL REGION IN M100 - OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNAPEN, JH; BECKMAN, JE; HELLER, CH; SHLOSMAN, [No Value; DEJONG, RS

    1995-01-01

    We present new high-resolution observations of the central region in the late-type spiral galaxy M100 (NGC 4321) supplemented by three-dimensional numerical modeling of stellar and gas dynamics, including star formation (SF). Near-infrared imaging has revealed a small bulge of 4'' effective

  2. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  3. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 117; Issue 5. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors. Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman Iyengar Saji Mohandas M Das Gupta John P George E N Rajagopal Surya Kanti Dutta. Volume 117 ...

  4. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  5. Technical study for inflector and central region of high intensity central region model cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Hongjuan; Lu Yinlong; Zhang Tianjue; Li Zhenguo; Jia Xianlu; Guan Fengping; Wang Zhenhui; Lin Jun; Lin Yuzheng

    2008-01-01

    The central region model (CRM) cyclotron is the experimental platform for the key technology study of a high intensity beam cyclotron. In thia paper we introduce the spiral inflector and central region designed for the CRM cyclotron, including the physical design, the numerical control machining and the installation precision control techniques. The shape of electrodes is complex, and machining with a strict tolerance must be done by a numerical control machine tool with the number of its axles no less that 4. The electrodes of central region were finished by using 3-axle machine tools. The size of gaps between the ground and Dee tip is very important, a special device was made to guarantee the installation precision, and the error of gaps was controlled within ±0.05 mm. (authors)

  6. Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

    A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

  7. Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

  8. Modeling of air currents in the Gulf Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Ellis, J.S.; Foster, C.S.; Foster, K.T.; Baskett, R.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.; Schalk, W.W.

    1992-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability modeled the wind flow in the Gulf Region in order to make projections of the Kuwait oil fires pollution dispersion. Extensive meteorological models incorporating explicit terrain influences to the flow fields were routinely employed through a six month international assessment support effort organized by the World Meteorological Organization and US scientific research agencies. Results show generally close agreement with visible imagery of the smoke plumes as detected by meteorological satellites. However, there are some examples of significant disagreement or failure of the meteorological models. These failures are most likely directly linked to missing or unavailable weather observations

  9. Growth and convergence in a two-region model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funke, Michael; Strulik, Holger

    2005-01-01

    The paper discusses the impact and implications of Korean unification by setting up a two-region endogenous growth model. The numerical solutions are based on the formal analytical model, and have been calibrated so that they reflect the observed features of the North and South Korean economies....... The numerical solutions provide evidence about the speed of convergence and the large amount of interregional transfers that are required to make the North Korean economy economically viable. We also model the impact of foreign aid, migration and borrowing abroad for the transition process...

  10. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  11. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  12. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  14. Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J. J.

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western......, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively...... constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables....

  15. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  16. Numerical modelling of the Earth’s ionosphere F region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostanin, P. A.; Kulyamin, D. V.; Dymnikov, V. P.

    2017-11-01

    This paper presents the first version of a new INM RAS Earth’s ionosphere F region dynamical model. A complete set of model equations is formulated taking into account all the key physical processes that form the global state of the ionospheric F region (plasma chemistry, ambipolar diffusion, wind transport, drift across magnetic lines). For the numerical solution, a splitting method based on the physical processes and geometric directions is proposed. The first stage of splitting in a quasi-two-dimensional approximation setting with a projection of ambipolar diffusion on the vertical direction is considered. It is numerically implemented stepwise using various difference schemes for three separate model formulations (taking into account diffusion only along the vertical direction, considering a realistic direction of diffusion along the magnetic field excluding and including a mixed derivative term). The applicability, efficiency, conservation, and monotonicity of these numerical methods are analyzed. The first numerical experiments show convergence of the numerical solution to a stationary vertical profile specific to the F region. The greatest consistency with the observed profiles is obtained in the mid-latitudes. Using the thus constructed model it is shown that the electron density profile is most sensitive to the neutral temperature and ionization level with qualitatively different structures of the corresponding modes of variability.

  17. Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg, Deborah [Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences (IMCS), New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States); Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY (United States); Sun, Liqiang [Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY (United States)

    2007-07-15

    A regional climate model is used to investigate the mechanism of interdecadal rainfall variability, specifically the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, in the Sahel region of Africa. The model is the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEPs) Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), with a horizontal resolution of approximately equivalent to a grid spacing of 50 km, nested within the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), which in turn was forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Simulations for the July-September season of the individual years 1955 and 1986 produced wet conditions in 1955 and dry conditions in 1986 in the Sahel, as observed. Additional July-September simulations were run forced by SSTs averaged for each month over the periods 1950-1959 and the 1978-1987. These simulations yielded wet conditions in the 1950-1959 case and dry conditions in the 1978-1987 case, confirming the role of SST forcing in decadal variability in particular. To test the hypothesis that the SST influences Sahel rainfall via stabilization of the tropospheric sounding, simulations were performed in which the temperature field from the AGCM was artificially modified before it was used to force the regional model. We modified the original 1955 ECHAM4.5 temperature profiles by adding a horizontally uniform, vertically varying temperature increase, taken from the 1986-1955 tropical mean warming in either the AGCM or the NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. When compared to the 1955 simulations without the added tropospheric warming, these simulations show a drying in the Sahel similar to that in the 1986-1955 difference and to the decadal difference between the 1980s and 1950s. This suggests that the tropospheric warming may have been, at least in part, the agent by which the SST increases led to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s. (orig.)

  18. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  19. Exploring regional economic convergence in Romania. A spatial modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zizi GOSCHIN

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores spatial economic convergence in Romania, from the perspective of real GDP/capita, and examines how the shock of the recent economic crisis has affected the convergence process. Given the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the values of GDP per capita, we address the question of convergence in terms of both classic and spatial regression models, thus filling a gap in the Romanian literature on this topic. The empirical results seem to provide support for both absolute and relative beta divergence in GDP/capita, as well as sigma divergence among Romanian counties on the long run. This is the consequence of the two-speed regional development, with the capital region and some large cities thriving by attracting human capital and FDIs, while the lagging regions are systematically left behind. Failing to validate the neoclassical approach on convergence, our results rather support the new divergence theory based on polarization and centre-periphery inequality.

  20. Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1980-05-01

    Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties

  1. A regional high resolution model of the marine mercury cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieser, J.; Daewel, U.; Schrum, C.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main sources for mercury intoxication is the uptake of methylmercury from sea food. However, only little is known about the dynamics of methylmercury in the marine environment and its accumulation along the food chain. To further our understanding of the pathways from anthropogenic emissions of elemental mercury to the bio-accumulation of methylmercury in fish we developed the first regional Eulerian three dimensional multi-media chemistry transport model (MECOSMO) that includes atmosphere, ocean, and ecosystem. The marine part of the model includes a complete representation of the marine ecosystem ranging from phytoplankton up to higher trophic levels, including fish. We used the MECOSMO model to reconstruct mercury concentrations in water and biota in the North- and Baltic Sea for the past 60 years. Based on our model we examined the natural short and longterm variability of the system as well as long term trends in the distribution and amount of methylmercury in water and fish. Based on our findings we show how models can be utilized to develop future measurement strategies for marine mercury. Finally, the presented modelling system can be used to project the impact of future perturbations in the system (i.e.: emission reductions, climate change, nutrient control) on the mercury accumulation in sea food. Thereby, supporting the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury on a regional scale by enabling us to estimate the impact of emission reductions on the marine mercury cycle.

  2. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    Since 1979 a country-wide system of raingauges has been operated in Denmark in order to obtain a better basis for design and analysis of urban drainage systems. As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric approach the Partial Duration Series method is employed in the modelling of extreme ....... The application of the Bayesian approach is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto distributed exceedances. Finally, the aspect of including economic perspectives in the estimation of the design events is briefly discussed....... in Denmark cannot be justified. In order to obtain an estimation procedure at non-monitored sites and to improve at-site estimates a regional Bayesian approach is adopted. The empirical regional distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are used as prior information...

  3. A Collaborative Network Model for Agrifood Transactions on Regional Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpentesta, Antonio P.; Ammirato, Salvatore

    The paper deals with a collaborative agrifood network in a regional scenario where producers of high typical and quality goods and consumer groups are involved in agrifood transactions as well as information and knowledge exchanges through an e-business platform. While producers are engaged in providing consumers with useful and timely information about healthiness, environmentally friendliness and most importantly, food quality of their products, consumers are engaged in giving prompt and understandable feedbacks to the producers. In this sense, the network is a form of proactive learning community. Starting from some basic socio-economic assumptions on a reference territory, we present an organizational model that can be adopted to foster the development of the regional area where it is applied. An instantiation of the model for a selected territory (the District of High Quality Productions in Sibari, Calabria, Italy) and first results, coming from two pilot tests, have been summarized as well.

  4. Regional cooperation and environmental justice in transportation planning in Ohio : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    This report highlights key themes identified at the Regional Cooperation and Environmental Justice in Transportation Planning in Ohio Peer Exchange held on December 15, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. The Regional Models of Cooperation Initiative, whic...

  5. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  6. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  7. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  8. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

  9. Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

    2017-11-01

    Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

  10. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  11. Regional Air Quality Model Application of the Aqueous-Phase ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In most ecosystems, atmospheric deposition is the primary input of mercury. The total wet deposition of mercury in atmospheric chemistry models is sensitive to parameterization of the aqueous-phase reduction of divalent oxidized mercury (Hg2+). However, most atmospheric chemistry models use a parameterization of the aqueous-phase reduction of Hg2+ that has been shown to be unlikely under normal ambient conditions or use a non mechanistic value derived to optimize wet deposition results. Recent laboratory experiments have shown that Hg2+ can be photochemically reduced to elemental mercury (Hg) in the aqueous-phase by dissolved organic matter and a mechanism and the rate for Hg2+ photochemical reduction by dicarboxylic acids (DCA) has been proposed. For the first time in a regional scale model, the DCA mechanism has been applied. The HO2-Hg2+ reduction mechanism, the proposed DCA reduction mechanism, and no aqueous-phase reduction (NAR) of Hg2+ are evaluated against weekly wet deposition totals, concentrations and precipitation observations from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.7.1. Regional scale simulations of mercury wet deposition using a DCA reduction mechanism evaluated well against observations, and reduced the bias in model evaluation by at least 13% over the other schemes evaluated, although summertime deposition estimates were still biased by −31.4% against observations. The use of t

  12. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  13. Salient stimuli in advertising: the effect of contrast interval length and type on recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, G Douglas

    2002-09-01

    Salient auditory stimuli (e.g., music or sound effects) are commonly used in advertising to elicit attention. However, issues related to the effectiveness of such stimuli are not well understood. This research examines the ability of a salient auditory stimulus, in the form of a contrast interval (CI), to enhance recall of message-related information. Researchers have argued that the effectiveness of the CI is a function of the temporal duration between the onset and offset of the change in the background stimulus and the nature of this stimulus. Three experiments investigate these propositions and indicate that recall is enhanced, providing the CI is 3 s or less. Information highlighted with silence is recalled better than information highlighted with music.

  14. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  15. Characteristics of Hybrid Type Switched Reluctance Motor with Salient Pole Stator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyama, Jun; Higuchi, Tsuyoshi; Abe, Takashi; Koga, Takahiro

    In this paper, we propose a new Hybrid type SRM with salient pole stator, which has a pair of permanent magnets attached symmetrically between the iron poles of the rotor. The paper describes experimental results of not only basic characteristics of the Hybrid SRM but also characteristics with current control loop under optimized advanced firing angle and cut-off angle. Considerable improvement of machine performance, especially efficiency and power factor, in the Hybrid SRM over conventional VR type SRM is confirmed.

  16. Younger but not older adults benefit from salient feedback during learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eHerbert

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Older adults are impaired in reinforcement learning (RL when feedback is partially ambiguous (e.g., Eppinger and Kray, 2011. In this study we examined whether older adults benefit from salient feedback information during learning. We used an electrophysiological approach and investigated 15 younger and 15 older adults with a RL task in which they had to learn stimulus-response associations under two learning conditions. In the positive learning conditions, participants could gain 50 Cents for a correct response but did not gain or lose money (*00 Cent for an incorrect response. In negative learning conditions, they could lose 50 Cents for an incorrect response but did not gain or lose money (*00 Cent for a correct response. As the identical outcome 00 Cent is either better or worse than the alternative outcome depending on the learning condition, this feedback type is ambiguous. To examine the influence of feedback salience we compared this condition with a condition in which positive and negative outcomes were color-coded and thereby clearly separable. The behavioral results indicated that younger adults reached higher accuracy levels under salient feedback conditions. Moreover, the error-related negativity (ERN and the feedback-related negativity (FRN for losses were larger if the good-bad dimension of feedback was salient. Hence, in younger adults salient feedback facilitates the rapid evaluation of outcomes on a good-bad dimension and by this supports learning. In contrast, for older adults we obtained neither behavioral nor electrophysiological effects of feedback salience. The older adults’ performance monitoring system therefore appears less flexible in integrating additional information in this evaluation process.

  17. The Role of Low and High Spatial Frequencies in Exogenous Attention to Biologically Salient Stimuli

    OpenAIRE

    Carretié, Luis; Ríos, Marcos; Periáñez, José A.; Kessel, Dominique; Álvarez-Linera, Juan

    2012-01-01

    PLOS: Creative Commons Attribution License Exogenous attention can be understood as an adaptive tool that permits the detection and processing of biologically salient events even when the individual is engaged in a resource-consuming task. Indirect data suggest that the spatial frequency of stimulation may be a crucial element in this process. Behavioral and neural data (both functional and structural) were analyzed for 36 participants engaged in a digit categorization task in which dis...

  18. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

    2002-02-01

    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  19. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  20. The Rio Pardo salient, northern Araçuaí orogen: an example of a complex basin-controlled fold-thrust belt curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliza Peixoto

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The Rio Pardo salient, the large antitaxial curve described by the Araçuaí fold-and-thrust belt along the southeastern edge of the São Francisco craton, is one of the most prominent and one of the least studied features of the Brasiliano Araçuaí-West Congo orogenic system (AWCO. In addition to the Archean/Paleoproterozoic basement, the salient is comprised of metasedimentary rocks mainly from the Neoproterozoic Macaúbas Group and the Salinas Formation. Its western limb occupies a portion of the Espinhaço ridge, where the NS-trending structures of the Araçuaí belt progressively curve NE and E, thereby defining the hinge zone along the Serra Geral on the Minas-Bahia boundary. The eastern limb is NW-trending and marked by a major shear zone. In models postulated to generate the AWCO through the closure of the Neoproterozoic Macaúbas basin, this large curve plays a critical kinematic role. Yet, in spite of this, its development is still not fully understood. How did this curve originate? Which factors controlled its generation? Our field study performed in the northern Araçuaí orogen characterized the kinematic picture of the salient, and led to a model that addresses these questions. The results we obtained indicate that the Rio Pardo salient developed in response to four deformation phases. The contractional D1 and D2 phases are coaxial and responsible for a craton-directed tectonic transport along the salient’s outer arc, which is coupled with an overall southward motion of the inner arc, thereby giving rise to a rather complex kinematic picture. Furthermore, structures of the D1/D2 phases define a zigzag pattern with alternating NE- and NW-trending segments along the salient’s leading edge. Along the NE-trending segments, the metasedimentary rocks are thrust northwestwards on top of the craton basement, while along the NW-trending segments, the supracrustal rocks are displaced along dextral to reverse

  1. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold

    2017-04-01

    Any high-enthalpy unconventional geothermal projectcan be jeopardized by the uncertainty on the presence of the geothermal resource at depth. Indeed, for the majority of such projects the geothermal resource is deeply seated and, with the drilling costs increasing accordingly, must be located as precisely as possible to increase the chance of their economic viability. In order to reduce the "geological risk", i.e., the chance to poorly locate the geothermal resource, a maximum amount of information must be gathered prior to any drilling of exploration and/or operational well. Cross-interpretation from multiple disciplines (e.g., geophysics, hydrology, geomechanics …) should improve locating the geothermal resource and so the position of exploration wells ; this is the objective of the European project IMAGE (grant agreement No. 608553), under which the work presented here was carried out. As far as geomechanics is concerned, in situ stresses can have a great impact on the presence of a geothermal resource since they condition both the regime within the rock mass, and the state of the major fault zones (and hence, the possible flow paths). In this work, we propose a geomechanical model to assess the stress distribution at the regional scale (characteristic length of 100 kilometers). Since they have a substantial impact on the stress distributions and on the possible creation of regional flow paths, the major fault zones are explicitly taken into account. The Distinct Element Method is used, where the medium is modeled as fully deformable blocks representing the rock mass interacting through mechanically active joints depicting the fault zones. The first step of the study is to build the model geometry based on geological and geophysical evidences. Geophysical and structural geology results help positioning the major fault zones in the first place. Then, outcrop observations, structural models and site-specific geological knowledge give information on the fault

  2. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  3. Modeling fluvial erosion on regional to continental scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Alan D.; Dietrich, William E.; Seidl, Michele A.

    1994-01-01

    The fluvial system is a major concern in modeling landform evolution in response to tectonic deformation. Three stream bed types (bedrock, coarse-bed alluvial, and fine-bed alluvial) differ in factors controlling their occurrence and evolution and in appropriate modeling approaches. Spatial and temporal transitions among bed types occur in response to changes in sediment characteristics and tectonic deformation. Erosion in bedrock channels depends upon the ability to scour or pluck bed material; this detachment capacity is often a power function of drainage area and gradient. Exposure of bedrock in channel beds, due to rapid downcutting or resistant rock, slows the response of headwater catchments to downstream baselevel changes. Sediment routing through alluvial channels must account for supply from slope erosion, transport rates, abrasion, and sorting. In regional landform modeling, implicit rate laws must be developed for sediment production from erosion of sub-grid-scale slopes and small channels.

  4. Stepwise calibration procedure for regional coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labarthe, Baptiste; Abasq, Lena; de Fouquet, Chantal; Flipo, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    Stream-aquifer interaction is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. Indeed, the groundwater component of hydrosystem and large scale heterogeneities control the regional flows towards the alluvial plains and the rivers. In second instance, the local distribution of the stream bed permeabilities controls the dynamics of stream-aquifer water fluxes within the alluvial plain, and therefore the near-river piezometric head distribution. In order to better understand the water circulation and pollutant transport in watersheds, the integration of these multi-dimensional processes in modelling platform has to be performed. Thus, the nested interfaces concept in continental hydrosystem modelling (where regional fluxes, simulated by large scale models, are imposed at local stream-aquifer interfaces) has been presented in Flipo et al (2014). This concept has been implemented in EauDyssée modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (900km2) part of a 11000km2 multi-layer aquifer system, located in the Seine basin (France). The hydrosystem modelling platform is composed of four spatially distributed modules (Surface, Sub-surface, River and Groundwater), corresponding to four components of the terrestrial water cycle. Considering the large number of parameters to be inferred simultaneously, the calibration process of coupled models is highly computationally demanding and therefore hardly applicable to a real case study of 10000km2. In order to improve the efficiency of the calibration process, a stepwise calibration procedure is proposed. The stepwise methodology involves determining optimal parameters of all components of the coupled model, to provide a near optimum prior information for the global calibration. It starts with the surface component parameters calibration. The surface parameters are optimised based on the comparison between simulated and observed discharges (or filtered discharges) at various locations. Once the surface parameters

  5. Modelling the development of mixing height in near equatorial region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samah, A.A. [Univ. of Malaya, Air Pollution Research Unit, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    1997-10-01

    Most current air pollution models were developed for mid-latitude conditions and as such many of the empirical parameters used were based on observations taken in the mid-latitude boundary layer which is physically different from that of the equatorial boundary layer. In the equatorial boundary layer the Coriolis parameter f is small or zero and moisture plays a more important role in the control of stability and the surface energy balance. Therefore air pollution models such as the OMLMULTI or the ADMS which were basically developed for mid-latitude conditions must be applied with some caution and would need some adaptation to properly simulate the properties of equatorial boundary layer. This work elucidates some of the problems of modelling the evolution of mixing height in the equatorial region. The mixing height estimates were compared with routine observations taken during a severe air pollution episodes in Malaysia. (au)

  6. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

    2007-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... weather events and (7) implications of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers....... The PRUDENCE results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications, bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences expertise on climate change....

  7. Technological and economical analysis of salient pole and permanent magnet synchronous machines designed for wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gündoğdu, Tayfun; Kömürgöz, Güven

    2012-01-01

    Chinese export restrictions already reduced the planning reliability for investments in permanent magnet wind turbines. Today the production of permanent magnets consumes the largest proportion of rare earth elements, with 40% of the rare earth-based magnets used for generators and other electrical machines. The cost and availability of NdFeB magnets will likely determine the production rate of permanent magnet generators. The high volatility of rare earth metals makes it very difficult to quote a price. Prices may also vary from supplier to supplier to an extent of up to 50% for the same size, shape and quantity with a minor difference in quality. The paper presents the analysis and the comparison of salient pole with field winding and of peripheral winding synchronous electrical machines, presenting important advantages. A neodymium alloy magnet rotor structure has been considered and compared to the salient rotor case. The Salient Pole Synchronous Machine and the Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine were designed so that the plate values remain constant. The Eddy current effect on the windings is taken into account during the design, and the efficiency, output power and the air-gap flux density obtained after the simulation were compared. The analysis results clearly indicate that Salient Pole Synchronous Machine designs would be attractive to wind power companies. Furthermore, the importance of the design of electrical machines and the determination of criteria are emphasized. This paper will be a helpful resource in terms of examination and comparison of the basic structure and magnetic features of the Salient Pole Synchronous Machine and Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine. Furthermore, an economic analysis of the designed machines was conducted. - Highlights: ► Importance of the design of electrical machines and the determination of criteria are emphasized. ► Machines were investigated in terms of efficiency, weight and maintenance requirements. ► An

  8. Salient Public Beliefs Underlying Disaster Preparedness Behaviors: A Theory-Based Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Mehdi; Ardalan, Ali; Akbarisari, Ali; Noorbala, Ahmad Ali; Elmi, Helen

    2017-04-01

    Introduction Given the increasing importance of disaster preparedness in Tehran, the capital of Iran, interventions encouraging disaster preparedness behavior (DPB) are needed. This study was conducted to show how an elicitation method can be used to identify salient consequences, referents, and circumstances about DPB and provide recommendations for interventions and quantitative research. A theory-based qualitative study using a semi-structured elicitation questionnaire was conducted with 132 heads of households from 22 districts in Tehran, Iran. Following the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), six open-ended questions were used to record the opinion of people about DPB: advantages of engaging in DPB; disadvantages of doing so; people who approve; people who disapprove; things that make it easy; and things that make it difficult. Content analysis showed the categories of salient consequences, reference groups, and circumstances. The three most frequently mentioned advantages obtained from inhabitants of Tehran were health outcomes (eg, it helps us to save our lives, it provides basic needs, and it protects us until relief workers arrive); other salient advantages were mentioned (eg, helps family reunification). The main disadvantage was preparedness anxiety. Family members were the most frequently mentioned social referent when people were asked who might approve or disapprove of their DPB. The two main circumstances perceived to obstruct DPB included not having enough knowledge or enough time. The results of this qualitative study suggest that interventions to encourage DPB among Tehran inhabitants should address: perceived consequences of DPB on health and other factors beyond health; barriers of not having enough knowledge and time perceived to hinder DPB; and social approval. More accurate research on salient beliefs with close-ended items developed from these open-ended data and with larger sample sizes of Tehran inhabitants is necessary. Research with other

  9. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Jahn

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in the field of extreme weather events are discussed. Possible regional impacts of extreme weather events are collected, focusing on European cities. The human contributions to those impacts are emphasized. Furthermore, methodological aspects of economic impact assessment are discussed along a temporal and a sectoral dimension. Finally, common economic impact models are compared, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses.

  10. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czerny, Bozena; Li, Yan-Rong; Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof; Panda, Swayam; Wildy, Conor; Karas, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  11. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: bcz@cft.edu.pl [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-22

    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  12. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  13. Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, the authors forecast house price inflation for five...

  14. Regional modeling of SOA formation under consideration of HOMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatzsche, Kathrin; Iinuma, Yoshiteru; Tilgner, Andreas; Berndt, Torsten; Poulain, Laurent; Wolke, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is the major burden of the atmospheric organic particulate matter with about 140 - 910 TgC/yr (Hallquist et al., 2009). SOA particles are formed via the oxidation of volatile organic carbons (VOCs), where the volatility of the VOCs is lowered. Therefore, gaseous compounds can either nucleate to form new particles or condense on existing particles. The framework of SOA formation under natural conditions is very complex, because there are a variety of gas-phase precursors, atmospheric degradation pathways and formed oxidation products. Up to now, atmospheric models underpredict the SOA mass. Therefore, improved regional scale model implementations are necessary to achieve a better agreement between model predictions and field measurements. Recently, highly oxidized multifunctional organic compounds (HOMs) were found in the gas phase from laboratory and field studies (Jokinen et al., 2015, Mutzel et al., 2015, Berndt et al., 2016a,b). From box model studies, it is known that HOMs are important for the early aerosol growth, however they are not yet considered in mechanisms applied in regional models. The present study utilizes the state-of-the-art multiscale model system COSMO-MUSCAT (Wolke et al., 2012), which is qualified for process studies in local and regional areas. The established model system was enhanced by a kinetic partitioning approach (Zaveri et al., 2014) for the gas-to-particle transfer of oxidized VOCs. The framework of the partitioning approach and the gas-phase mechanism were tested in a box model and evaluated with chamber studies, before implementing in the 3D model system COSMO-MUSCAT. Moreover, HOMs are implemented in the same way for the regional SOA modeling. 3D simulations were performed with an equilibrium partitioning and diffusion dependent partitioning approach, respectively. The presentation will provide first 3D simulation results including comparisons with field measurements from the TROPOS field site

  15. A Global Model for Regional Phase Amplitude Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, W. S.; Fisk, M. D.; Stead, R. J.; Begnaud, M. L.; Yang, X.; Ballard, S.; Rautian, T. G.

    2013-12-01

    We use two-dimensional (2-D) models of regional phase attenuation, and absolute site effects, to predict amplitudes for use in high frequency discrimination and yield estimation schemes. We have shown that 2-D corrections reduce scatter in P/S ratios, thus improve discrimination power. This is especially important for intermediate frequencies (2-6 Hz), which travel further than the higher frequencies that are typically used for discrimination. Previous work has focused on national priorities; however, for use by the international community, attenuation and site models must cover as much of the globe as possible. New amplitude quality control (QC) methods facilitate this effort. The most important step is to cluster events spatially, take ratios to remove path and site effects, and require the relative amplitudes to match predictions from an earthquake source model with variable moment and corner frequency. Data can then be stacked to form summary amplitudes for each cluster. We perform similar QC and stacking operations for multiple channels at each station, and for closely spaced stations. Data are inverted using a simultaneous multi-band, multi-phase approach that employs absolute spectral constraints on well-studied earthquakes. Global parameterization is obtained using publically available GeoTess software that allows for variable grid spacing. Attenuation results show remarkable, high-resolution correlation with regional geology and heat flow. Our data set includes regional explosion amplitudes from many sources, including LLNL and Leo Brady data for North America, and Borovoye Archive and ChISS data for Asia. We see dramatic improvement in high frequency P/S discrimination, world wide, after correcting for 2-D path and site effects.

  16. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  17. Modeling Regional Pollution Episodes With The Ctm Mocage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, A.; Brocheton, F.; Amodei, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    Several regional ozone pollution episodes have been studied in the context of two recent extensive field campaigns in France: ESQUIF, in the Paris region and ES- COMPTE, in the vicinity of Marseilles. MOCAGE is an off-line multi-scale Chem- istry and Transport Model (CTM), driven by the operational numerical weather pre- diction models of Météo-France, ARPEGE and ALADIN. It covers from the global to the regional scale, by means of up to four levels of nested domains, and extends up to the middle stratosphere; thus, there is no need for external boundary conditions, neither on the horizontal or on the vertical. These original features allows to cover with MOCAGE a wide range of scientific applications, from routine air-pollution fore- casts to long-term simulations related to climate issues. The present study focuses on the simulation of regional-scale photo-oxidant episodes and on the impact on larger scales of the transport of ozone, of precursors and of reservoir species. The first ex- ample concerns a polluted episode of the ESQUIF campaign (IOP6). In addition to ground measurements, 8 flights have documented the situation, showing a diversity of chemical regimes. This variability is quite satisfactorily reproduced by the model. A special attention was also paid to vertical and horizontal exchanges, particularly to interactions between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. An interesting case of an ill-represented residual nocturnal plume in the simulation of ESQUIF IOP5 will be presented: during this IOP, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere was well characterized by four flights. Free troposphere concentrations of ozone appear to be well reproduced by the model, except for the intensity and vertical extent of a residual plume, which are overestimated. For the day after, in addition to a direct impact on surface concentrations, the simulated development of the boundary layer is found to be too slow ; both errors contribute to an

  18. Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.

    1991-01-01

    Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed.

  19. Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui

    1992-01-01

    The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

  20. Some Challenges Posed by Coal Bed Methane Regional Assessment Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Catherine R; Doherty, John; Howell, Stephen; Erriah, Leon

    2015-01-01

    Coal measures (coal bearing rock strata) can contain large reserves of methane. These reserves are being exploited at a rapidly increasing rate in many parts of the world. To extract coal seam gas, thousands of wells are drilled at relatively small spacing to depressurize coal seams to induce desorption and allow subsequent capture of the gas. To manage this process effectively, the effect of coal bed methane (CBM) extraction on regional aquifer systems must be properly understood and managed. Groundwater modeling is an integral part of this management process. However, modeling of CBM impacts presents some unique challenges, as processes that are operative at two very different scales must be adequately represented in the models. The impacts of large-scale gas extraction may be felt over a large area, yet despite the significant upscaling that accompanies construction of a regional model, near-well conditions and processes cannot be ignored. These include the highly heterogeneous nature of many coal measures, and the dual-phase flow of water and gas that is induced by coal seam depressurization. To understand these challenges, a fine-scale model was constructed incorporating a detailed representation of lithological heterogeneity to ensure that near-well processes and conditions could be examined. The detail of this heterogeneity was at a level not previously employed in models built to assess groundwater impacts arising from CBM extraction. A dual-phase reservoir simulator was used to examine depressurization and water desaturation processes in the vicinity of an extractive wellfield within this fine-scale model. A single-phase simulator was then employed so that depressurization errors incurred by neglecting near-well, dual-phase flow could be explored. Two models with fewer lithological details were then constructed in order to examine the nature of depressurization errors incurred by upscaling and to assess the interaction of the upscaling process with the

  1. Influence of Regional Climate Model spatial resolution on wind climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.

    2010-12-01

    Global and regional climate models are being run at increasingly fine horizontal and vertical resolution with the goal of increased skill. However, relatively few studies have quantified the change in modeled wind climates that derives from applying a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at varying resolutions, and the response to varying resolution may be highly non-linear since most models run in climate mode are hydrostatic. Thus, herein we examine the influence of grid-resolution on modelled wind speeds and gusts and derived extremes thereof over southern Scandinavia using output from the Rossby Centre (RCA3) RCM run at four different resolutions from 50 x 50 km to 6 x 6 km, and with two different vertical grid-spacings. Domain averaged fifty-year return period wind speeds and wind gusts derived using the method of moments approach to compute the Gumbel parameters, increase with resolution (Table 1), though the change is strongly mediated by the model grid-cell surface characteristics. Power spectra of the 3-hourly model time-step ‘instantaneous’ wind speeds and daily wind gusts at all four resolutions show clear peaks in the variance associated with bi-annual, annual, seasonal and synoptic frequencies. The variance associated with these peaks is enhanced with increased resolution, though not in a monotonic fashion, and is more marked in wind gusts than wind speeds. Relative to in situ observations, the model generally underestimates the variance, particularly associated with the synoptic time scale, even for the highest resolution simulations. There is some evidence to suggest that the change in the power spectra with horizontal resolution is less marked in the transition from 12.5 km to 6.25 km, than from 50 to 25 km, or 25 km to 12.5 km.Table 1. Domain averaged mean annual wind speed (U), 50-year return period extreme wind speed (U50yr) and wind gust (Gust50yr) (m/s) from the four RCA3 simulations at different resolution based on output from 1987-2008. The

  2. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  3. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  4. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  5. Probabilistic modeling of climate change impacts in permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, O.

    2009-04-01

    model reanalysis were used to characterize the baseline climate in Northern Eurasia and evaluate regional uncertainties resulting from the differences between the databases. Additional uncertainty in predictive calculations was associated with ensemble climatic projections for the mid-21st century. Another type of uncertainty is imposed by the small-scale stochastic variations of environmental parameters that govern the response of permafrost to climate variations. We simulated the effect it may have on the state of permafrost using the following approach. In different calculations snow depth varied in the range ± 50% from the mean climatological value; lower vegetation (moss) height varied between 5 and 10 cm, and organic layer thickness - in the range 5-20 cm. The range of variation for each of the environmental parameters has been selected using observational data. Performance of the stochastic model was evaluated using the two-step procedure. At the first step calculated for individual years statistics of the seasonal thaw depth was tested against observations at selected 1 x 1 km permafrost sites representing different bioclimatic conditions along the Russian Arctic coast. At each site the calculated ensemble was in good agreement with observations indicating that the model captures the component of small-scale variability associated with the spatial heterogeneity of environmental parameters. In the second test the model successfully reproduces the interannual variability of the ensemble-mean thaw depths at each site in the period 1990-2007. The ultimate result of our study is the set of predictive probabilistic permafrost maps for the Northern Eurasia. Aside from portraying the "average" or "typical" active-layer thickness for the current and projected for the mid-21st century climate, such maps depict the probability of thaw depth exceeding given thresholds within specified regions. Such information has important implication in cold region engineering and risk

  6. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  7. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  8. Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 2. Results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a model study of the impact of drifting snow on the lower atmosphere, surface snow characteristics, and surface mass balance of Antarctica. We use the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.1/ANT with a high horizontal resolution (27 km), equipped with a drifting snow routine

  9. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  10. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  11. Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Derivation from regional analysis of streamflow recession curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Ali, Melkamu; Leng, Guoyong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Wang, Shaowen; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-07-21

    Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall–runoff response, especially in steep terrain. Its contribution to total runoff is, however, poorly represented in the current generation of land surface models. The lack of physical basis of these common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation of the stormflow (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global land surface models. This paper is aimed at deriving regionalized parameterizations of the storage–discharge relationship relating to subsurface stormflow from a top–down empirical data analysis of streamflow recession curves extracted from 50 eastern United States catchments. Detailed regression analyses were performed between parameters of the empirical storage–discharge relationships and the controlling climate, soil and topographic characteristics. The regression analyses performed on empirical recession curves at catchment scale indicated that the coefficient of the power-law form storage–discharge relationship is closely related to the catchment hydrologic characteristics, which is consistent with the hydraulic theory derived mainly at the hillslope scale. As for the exponent, besides the role of field scale soil hydraulic properties as suggested by hydraulic theory, it is found to be more strongly affected by climate (aridity) at the catchment scale. At a fundamental level these results point to the need for more detailed exploration of the co-dependence of soil, vegetation and topography with climate.

  12. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  13. Photochemistry of an Urban Region using Observations and Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, C. A.; Mauldin, L.; Mukherjee, A. D.; Flocke, F. M.; Pfister, G.; Apel, E. C.; Bahreini, R.; Blake, D. R.; Blake, N. J.; Campos, T. L.; Cohen, R. C.; Farmer, D.; Fried, A.; Guenther, A. B.; Hall, S. R.; Heikes, B.; Hornbrook, R. S.; Huey, L. G.; Karl, T.; Kaser, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Ortega, J. V.; O'Sullivan, D. W.; Richter, D.; Smith, J. N.; Tanner, D.; Townsend-Small, A.; Ullmann, K.; Walega, J.; Weibring, P.; Weinheimer, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of HOx radicals in the troposphere can lead to the production of secondary products such as ozone and aerosols, while volatile organic compounds are degraded. The production rates and identities of secondary products depend on the abundance of NOx and other parameters. The amounts of VOCs and NOx can also affect the concentrations of OH, HO2 and RO2. Comparison of observations and model-derived values of HOx species can provide one way to assess the completeness and accuracy of model mechanisms. The functional dependence of measure-model agreement on various controlling parameters can also reveal details of current understanding of photochemistry in urban regions. During the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE), conducted during the summer of 2014, observations from ground-based and airborne platforms were performed to study the evolution of atmospheric composition over the Denver metropolitan area. Of particular interest in FRAPPE was the assessment of the roles of mixing of emissions from oil and gas exploration and extraction, and those from confined animal production operations, with urban emissions (e.g. from transportation, energy production, and industrial processes) on air quality in the metropolitan and surrounding region. Our group made measurements of OH, HO2, and HO2 + RO2 from the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft platform using selected ion chemical ionization mass spectrometry. The C-130 was equipped with instrumentation for the observation of a wide variety of photochemical-related species and parameters. These data are used to assess the photochemical regimes encountered during the period of the study, and to quantitatively describe the chemical processes involved in formation of secondary products. One of the tools used is a steady state model for short-lived species such as those that we observed. This presentation summarizes the behavior of species that were measured during FRAPPE and what the observations reveal

  14. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  15. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  16. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  17. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  18. AN ANALYTIC MODEL OF DUSTY, STRATIFIED, SPHERICAL H ii REGIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez-Ramírez, J. C.; Raga, A. C. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-543, 04510 D.F., México (Mexico); Lora, V. [Astronomisches Rechen-Institut, Zentrum für Astronomie der Universität, Mönchhofstr. 12-14, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Cantó, J., E-mail: juan.rodriguez@nucleares.unam.mx [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-468, 04510 D. F., México (Mexico)

    2016-12-20

    We study analytically the effect of radiation pressure (associated with photoionization processes and with dust absorption) on spherical, hydrostatic H ii regions. We consider two basic equations, one for the hydrostatic balance between the radiation-pressure components and the gas pressure, and another for the balance among the recombination rate, the dust absorption, and the ionizing photon rate. Based on appropriate mathematical approximations, we find a simple analytic solution for the density stratification of the nebula, which is defined by specifying the radius of the external boundary, the cross section of dust absorption, and the luminosity of the central star. We compare the analytic solution with numerical integrations of the model equations of Draine, and find a wide range of the physical parameters for which the analytic solution is accurate.

  19. Oral methylphenidate normalizes cingulate activity in cocaine addiction during a salient cognitive task

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, R.Z.; Woicik, P.A.; Maloney, T.; Tomasi, D.; Alia-Klein, N.; Shan, J.; Honorario, J.; Samaras, D.; Wang, R.; Telang, F.; Wang, G.-J.; Volkow, N.D.

    2010-01-01

    Anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) hypoactivations during cognitive demand are a hallmark deficit in drug addiction. Methylphenidate (MPH) normalizes cortical function, enhancing task salience and improving associated cognitive abilities, in other frontal lobe pathologies; however, in clinical trials, MPH did not improve treatment outcome in cocaine addiction. We hypothesized that oral MPH will attenuate ACC hypoactivations and improve associated performance during a salient cognitive task in individuals with cocaine-use disorders (CUD). In the current functional MRI study, we used a rewarded drug cue-reactivity task previously shown to be associated with hypoactivations in both major ACC subdivisions (implicated in default brain function) in CUD compared with healthy controls. The task was performed by 13 CUD and 14 matched healthy controls on 2 d: after ingesting a single dose of oral MPH (20 mg) or placebo (lactose) in a counterbalanced fashion. Results show that oral MPH increased responses to this salient cognitive task in both major ACC subdivisions (including the caudal-dorsal ACC and rostroventromedial ACC extending to the medial orbitofrontal cortex) in the CUD. These functional MRI results were associated with reduced errors of commission (a common impulsivity measure) and improved task accuracy, especially during the drug (vs. neutral) cue-reactivity condition in all subjects. The clinical application of such MPH-induced brain-behavior enhancements remains to be tested.

  20. Synapsin is required to “boost” memory strength for highly salient events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleber, Jörg; Chen, Yi-Chun; Michels, Birgit; Saumweber, Timo; Schleyer, Michael; Kähne, Thilo; Buchner, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Synapsin is an evolutionarily conserved presynaptic phosphoprotein. It is encoded by only one gene in the Drosophila genome and is expressed throughout the nervous system. It regulates the balance between reserve and releasable vesicles, is required to maintain transmission upon heavy demand, and is essential for proper memory function at the behavioral level. Task-relevant sensorimotor functions, however, remain intact in the absence of Synapsin. Using an odor–sugar reward associative learning paradigm in larval Drosophila, we show that memory scores in mutants lacking Synapsin (syn97) are lower than in wild-type animals only when more salient, higher concentrations of odor or of the sugar reward are used. Furthermore, we show that Synapsin is selectively required for larval short-term memory. Thus, without Synapsin Drosophila larvae can learn and remember, but Synapsin is required to form memories that match in strength to event salience—in particular to a high saliency of odors, of rewards, or the salient recency of an event. We further show that the residual memory scores upon a lack of Synapsin are not further decreased by an additional lack of the Sap47 protein. In combination with mass spectrometry data showing an up-regulated phosphorylation of Synapsin in the larval nervous system upon a lack of Sap47, this is suggestive of a functional interdependence of Synapsin and Sap47. PMID:26670182

  1. When message-frame fits salient cultural-frame, messages feel more persuasive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uskul, Ayse K; Oyserman, Daphna

    2010-03-01

    The present study examines the persuasive effects of tailored health messages comparing those tailored to match (versus not match) both chronic cultural frame and momentarily salient cultural frame. Evidence from two studies (Study 1: n = 72 European Americans; Study 2: n = 48 Asian Americans) supports the hypothesis that message persuasiveness increases when chronic cultural frame, health message tailoring and momentarily salient cultural frame all match. The hypothesis was tested using a message about health risks of caffeine consumption among individuals prescreened to be regular caffeine consumers. After being primed for individualism, European Americans who read a health message that focused on the personal self were more likely to accept the message-they found it more persuasive, believed they were more at risk and engaged in more message-congruent behaviour. These effects were also found among Asian Americans who were primed for collectivism and who read a health message that focused on relational obligations. The findings point to the importance of investigating the role of situational cues in persuasive effects of health messages and suggest that matching content to primed frame consistent with the chronic frame may be a way to know what to match messages to.

  2. Extracting salient features for network intrusion detection using machine learning methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf C. Staudemeyer

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a data preprocessing and feature selection framework to support data mining and network security experts in minimal feature set selection of intrusion detection data. This process is supported by detailed visualisation and examination of class distributions. Distribution histograms, scatter plots and information gain are presented as supportive feature reduction tools. The feature reduction process applied is based on decision tree pruning and backward elimination. This paper starts with an analysis of the KDD Cup '99 datasets and their potential for feature reduction. The dataset consists of connection records with 41 features whose relevance for intrusion detection are not clear. All traffic is either classified `normal' or into the four attack types denial-of-service, network probe, remote-to-local or user-to-root. Using our custom feature selection process, we show how we can significantly reduce the number features in the dataset to a few salient features. We conclude by presenting minimal sets with 4--8 salient features for two-class and multi-class categorisation for detecting intrusions, as well as for the detection of individual attack classes; the performance using a static classifier compares favourably to the performance using all features available. The suggested process is of general nature and can be applied to any similar dataset.

  3. Oral methylphenidate normalizes cingulate activity in cocaine addiction during a salient cognitive task

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, R.Z.; Goldstein, R.Z.; Woicik, P.A.; Maloney, T.; Tomasi, D.; Alia-Klein, N.; Shan, J.; Honorario, J.; Samaras, d.; Wang, R.; Telang, F.; Wang, G.-J.; Volkow, N.D.

    2010-09-21

    Anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) hypoactivations during cognitive demand are a hallmark deficit in drug addiction. Methylphenidate (MPH) normalizes cortical function, enhancing task salience and improving associated cognitive abilities, in other frontal lobe pathologies; however, in clinical trials, MPH did not improve treatment outcome in cocaine addiction. We hypothesized that oral MPH will attenuate ACC hypoactivations and improve associated performance during a salient cognitive task in individuals with cocaine-use disorders (CUD). In the current functional MRI study, we used a rewarded drug cue-reactivity task previously shown to be associated with hypoactivations in both major ACC subdivisions (implicated in default brain function) in CUD compared with healthy controls. The task was performed by 13 CUD and 14 matched healthy controls on 2 d: after ingesting a single dose of oral MPH (20 mg) or placebo (lactose) in a counterbalanced fashion. Results show that oral MPH increased responses to this salient cognitive task in both major ACC subdivisions (including the caudal-dorsal ACC and rostroventromedial ACC extending to the medial orbitofrontal cortex) in the CUD. These functional MRI results were associated with reduced errors of commission (a common impulsivity measure) and improved task accuracy, especially during the drug (vs. neutral) cue-reactivity condition in all subjects. The clinical application of such MPH-induced brain-behavior enhancements remains to be tested.

  4. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  5. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  6. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  7. Regional 4-D modeling of the ionospheric electron density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, M.; Bilitza, D.; Shum, C. K.; Zeilhofer, C.

    2008-08-01

    The knowledge of the electron density is the key point in correcting ionospheric delays of electromagnetic measurements and in studying the ionosphere. During the last decade GNSS, in particular GPS, has become a promising tool for monitoring the total electron content (TEC), i.e., the integral of the electron density along the ray-path between the transmitting satellite and the receiver. Hence, geometry-free GNSS measurements provide informations on the electron density, which is basically a four-dimensional function depending on spatial position and time. In addition, these GNSS measurements can be combined with other available data including nadir, over-ocean TEC observations from dual-frequency radar altimetry (T/P, JASON, ENVISAT), and TECs from GPS-LEO occultation systems (e.g., FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, CHAMP) with heterogeneous sampling and accuracy. In this paper, we present different multi-dimensional approaches for modeling spatio-temporal variations of the ionospheric electron density. To be more specific, we split the target function into a reference part, computed from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), and an unknown correction term. Due to the localizing feature of B-spline functions we apply tensor-product spline expansions to model the correction term in a certain multi-dimensional region either completely or partly. Furthermore, the multi-resolution representation derived from wavelet analysis allows monitoring the ionosphere at different resolutions levels. For demonstration we apply three approaches to electron density data over South America.

  8. Electromagnetic characteristics and static torque of a solid salient poles synchronous motor computed by 3D-finite element method magnetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popnikolova Radevska, Mirka; Cundev, Milan; Petkovska, Lidija

    2002-01-01

    In these paper is presented a methodology for numerical determination and complex analysis of the electromagnetic characteristics of the Solid Salient Poles Synchronous Motor, with rated data: 2.5 kW, 240 V and 1500 r.p.m.. A mathematical model and original algorithm for the nonlinear and iterative calculations by using Finite Element Method in 3D domain will be given. The program package FEM-3D will be used to perform automatically mesh generation of the finite elements in the 3D domain, calculation of the magnetic field distribution, as well as electromagnetic characteristics and Static torque in SSPSM. (Author)

  9. Regional cooperation and bike/ped and transit connections : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    This report summarizes the presentations, key themes, and recommendations identified at a Regional Models of Cooperation peer exchange on October 24, 2016 in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Utah Transit Authority hosted peers from the Los Angeles Metropoli...

  10. Approach of regional gravity field modeling from GRACE data for improvement of geoid modeling for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroishi, Y.; Lemoine, F. G.; Rowlands, D. D.

    2006-12-01

    The latest gravimetric geoid model for Japan, JGEOID2004, suffers from errors at long wavelengths (around 1000 km) in a range of +/- 30 cm. The model was developed by combining surface gravity data with a global marine altimetric gravity model, using EGM96 as a foundation, and the errors at long wavelength are presumably attributed to EGM96 errors. The Japanese islands and their vicinity are located in a region of plate convergence boundaries, producing substantial gravity and geoid undulations in a wide range of wavelengths. Because of the geometry of the islands and trenches, precise information on gravity in the surrounding oceans should be incorporated in detail, even if the geoid model is required to be accurate only over land. The Kuroshio Current, which runs south of Japan, causes high sea surface variability, making altimetric gravity field determination complicated. To reduce the long-wavelength errors in the geoid model, we are investigating GRACE data for regional gravity field modeling at long wavelengths in the vicinity of Japan. Our approach is based on exclusive use of inter- satellite range-rate data with calibrated accelerometer data and attitude data, for regional or global gravity field recovery. In the first step, we calibrate accelerometer data in terms of scales and biases by fitting dynamically calculated orbits to GPS-determined precise orbits. The calibration parameters of accelerometer data thus obtained are used in the second step to recover a global/regional gravity anomaly field. This approach is applied to GRACE data obtained for the year 2005 and resulting global/regional gravity models are presented and discussed.

  11. Regional Air Toxics Modeling in California's San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martien, P. T.; Tanrikulu, S.; Tran, C.; Fairley, D.; Jia, Y.; Fanai, A.; Reid, S.; Yarwood, G.; Emery, C.

    2011-12-01

    Regional toxics modeling conducted for California's San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) estimated potential cancer risk from diesel particulate matter (DPM) and four key reactive toxic gaseous pollutants (1,3-butadiene, benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde). Concentrations of other non-cancerous gaseous toxic air contaminants, including acrolein, were also generated. In this study, meteorological fields generated from July and December periods in 2000 and emissions from 2005 provided inputs to a three-dimensional air quality model at high spatial resolution (1x1 km^2 grid), from which a baseline set of annual risk values was estimated. Simulated risk maps show highest annual average DPM concentrations and cancer risks were located near and downwind of major freeways and near the Port of Oakland, a major container port in the area. Population weighted risks, using 2000 census data, were found to be highest in highly urbanized areas adjacent to significant DPM sources. For summer, the ratio of mean measured elemental carbon to mean modeled DPM was 0.78, conforming roughly to expectations. But for winter the ratio is 1.13, suggesting other sources of elemental carbon, such as wood smoke, are important. Simulated annual estimates for benzene and 1-3, butadiene compared well to measured annual estimates. Simulated acrolein and formaldehyde significantly under-predicted observed values. Simulations repeated using projected 2015 toxic emissions predicted that potential cancer risk dropped significantly in all areas throughout the SFBA. Emissions estimates for 2015 included the State of California's recently adopted on-road truck rule. Emission estimates of DPM are projected to drop about 70% between 2005 and 2015 in the SFBA, with a commensurate reduction in potential cancer risks. However, due to projected shifts in population during this period, with urban densification close to DPM sources outpacing emission reductions, there are some areas where population-weighted risks

  12. Modeling and Partitioning of Regional Evapotranspiration Using a Satellite-Driven Water-Carbon Coupling Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongmin Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and partitioning of regional evapotranspiration (ET are key issues in global hydrological and ecological research. We incorporated a stomatal conductance model and a light-use efficiency-based gross primary productivity (GPP model into the Shuttleworth–Wallace model to develop a simplified carbon-water coupling model, SWH, for estimating ET using meteorological and remote sensing data. To enable regional application of the SWH model, we optimized key parameters with measurements from global eddy covariance (EC tower sites. In addition, we estimated soil water content with the principle of the bucket system. The model prediction of ET agreed well with the estimates obtained with the EC measurements, with an average R2 of 0.77 and a root mean square error of 0.72 mm·day−1. The model performance was generally better for woody ecosystems than herbaceous ecosystems. Finally, the spatial patterns of ET and relevant model outputs (i.e., GPP, water-use efficiency and the ratio of soil water evaporation to ET in China with the model simulations were assessed.

  13. A multi-language, regional water management model; linking a surface (WaterSim 4.0) and a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Escobar, V. M.; Gober, P.

    2010-12-01

    The Decision Center for a Desert City has a new provider-level water planning and management model termed WaterSim 4.0. This model simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and ground water availability for 33 water providers in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (hereafter “Phoenix”). WaterSim 4.0 uses a multi-language nested architecture that consists of a user interface, runtime libraries, and a DOS batch executable. The C# interface defines the inputs for, and manages the outputs from, the C# libraries that invoke a FORTRAN library and the batch program. The FORTRAN Dynamic Link Library (DLL) houses the water provider information, and it controls the watershed inputs and outputs and reservoir operations. The DOS executable is the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Regional Groundwater Flow Model of the Salt River Valley (SRV) (hereafter SRVGFM). SRVGFM is based on MODFLOW and, as used here, runs on an annual time-step at a 1/4 mile by 1/4 mile spatial resolution (SRV grid). The SRV grid incorporates the three distinct alluvial layers of the aquifer present under Phoenix. A simulation cycle, then, proceeds thusly. First, the interface calls the C# libraries to execute the SRVGFM which runs for one year; annual outputs from the SRVGFM include, among other things, head levels for each alluvial layer. Post-processing of the SRVGFM outputs enables run-time verification of model convergence within a DOS box. Second, head levels from the SRVgfm are read by the C# libraries to update the spatial estimates of groundwater. Third, these groundwater estimates are made available to the FORTRAN DLL which then also runs for one year. Fourth, annual changes in the state and rate variables from the FORTRAN DLL (rivers, reservoirs, population demographics, etc.) are passed to the interface to provide tabular and graphical outputs from the simulation

  14. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-15

    reflected waveleld travels sourcewards through the crustal passes through a CIO transition region such as that layer of the tramition region, and the region...the transition, why this transmitted energy is maximum near to increase the amplitudes in the second grid by as much as te tramition and decream a the

  15. Interactive 3D computer model of the human corneolimbal region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molvaer, Rikke K; Andreasen, Arne; Heegaard, Steffen

    2013-01-01

    in the limbal region: limbal epithelial crypts (LECs), limbal crypts (LCs) and focal stromal projections (FSPs). In all, eight LECs, 25 LCs and 105 FSPs were identified in the limbal region. The LECs, LCs and FSPs were predominantly located in the superior limbal region with seven LECs, 19 LCs and 93 FSPs...

  16. Modelling total sewage water discharge to a regional treatment plant.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.; Stricker, H.

    1986-01-01

    In the Netherlands, sewage water is often treated on a regional basis. In case of combined systems that are spread within a large region of several hundreds of square kilometers, reduction of the hydraulic capacity of the regional treatment plant seems possible, because of space-time variations in

  17. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  18. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Ter Maat

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

    The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

  19. Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, Scott J.; Donato, David I.; Claggett, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

  20. Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China

  1. High-Resolution Regional Phase Attenuation Models of the Iranian Plateau and Surrounding Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-03

    Mayeda, W. R. Walter, L. Malagnini, and W. S. Phillips, Regional Attenuation in Northern California: A Comparison of Five 1D Q Methods, Bull. Seism ...regional phase amplitude tomography, Seism . Res. Lett., 80, p. 360, 2009. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 49 Priestley, K

  2. Modeling regional secondary organic aerosol using the Master Chemical Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jingyi; Cleveland, Meredith; Ziemba, Luke D.; Griffin, Robert J.; Barsanti, Kelley C.; Pankow, James F.; Ying, Qi

    2015-02-01

    A modified near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM, version 3.2) with 5727 species and 16,930 reactions and an equilibrium partitioning module was incorporated into the Community Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to predict the regional concentrations of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the eastern United States (US). In addition to the semi-volatile SOA from equilibrium partitioning, reactive surface uptake processes were used to simulate SOA formation due to isoprene epoxydiol, glyoxal and methylglyoxal. The CMAQ-MCM-SOA model was applied to simulate SOA formation during a two-week episode from August 28 to September 7, 2006. The southeastern US has the highest SOA, with a maximum episode-averaged concentration of ∼12 μg m-3. Primary organic aerosol (POA) and SOA concentrations predicted by CMAQ-MCM-SOA agree well with AMS-derived hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) urban concentrations at the Moody Tower at the University of Houston. Predicted molecular properties of SOA (O/C, H/C, N/C and OM/OC ratios) at the site are similar to those reported in other urban areas, and O/C values agree with measured O/C at the same site. Isoprene epoxydiol is predicted to be the largest contributor to total SOA concentration in the southeast US, followed by methylglyoxal and glyoxal. The semi-volatile SOA components are dominated by products from β-caryophyllene oxidation, but the major species and their concentrations are sensitive to errors in saturation vapor pressure estimation. A uniform decrease of saturation vapor pressure by a factor of 100 for all condensable compounds can lead to a 150% increase in total SOA. A sensitivity simulation with UNIFAC-calculated activity coefficients (ignoring phase separation and water molecule partitioning into the organic phase) led to a 10% change in the predicted semi-volatile SOA concentrations.

  3. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  4. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  5. Salient features, response and operation of Lead-Free Gulmarg Neutron Monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mufti, S.; Chatterjee, S.; Ishtiaq, P.M.; Darzi, M.A.; Mir, T.A.; Shah, G.N.

    2016-01-01

    Lead-Free Gulmarg Neutron Monitor (LFGNM) provides continuous ground level intensity measurements of atmospheric secondary neutrons produced in interactions of primary cosmic rays with the Earth's constituent atmosphere. We report the LFGNM detector salient features and simulation of its energy response for 10 −11 MeV to 10 4 MeV energy incident neutrons using the FLUKA Monte Carlo package. An empirical calibration of the LFGNM detector carried out with a Pu–Be neutron source for maximising its few MeV neutron counting sensitivity is also presented. As an illustration of its functionality a single representative transient solar modulation event recorded by LFGNM depicting Forbush decrease in integrated neutron data for which the geospace consequences are well known is also presented. Performance of LFGNM under actual observation conditions for effectively responding to transient solar modulation is seen to compare well with other world-wide conventional neutron monitors.

  6. A view not to be missed: Salient scene content interferes with cognitive restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van der Jagt, Alexander P. N.; Craig, Tony; Brewer, Mark J.; Pearson, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Attention Restoration Theory (ART) states that built scenes place greater load on attentional resources than natural scenes. This is explained in terms of "hard" and "soft" fascination of built and natural scenes. Given a lack of direct empirical evidence for this assumption we propose that perceptual saliency of scene content can function as an empirically derived indicator of fascination. Saliency levels were established by measuring speed of scene category detection using a Go/No-Go detection paradigm. Experiment 1 shows that built scenes are more salient than natural scenes. Experiment 2 replicates these findings using greyscale images, ruling out a colour-based response strategy, and additionally shows that built objects in natural scenes affect saliency to a greater extent than the reverse. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the saliency of scene content is directly linked to cognitive restoration using an established restoration paradigm. Overall, these findings demonstrate an important link between the saliency of scene content and related cognitive restoration. PMID:28723975

  7. Salient features, response and operation of Lead-Free Gulmarg Neutron Monitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mufti, S., E-mail: mufti.sabiuddin@gmail.com [Astrophysical Sciences Division, Nuclear Research Laboratory, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Srinagar - 190 006 (India); Chatterjee, S. [TLD Unit, Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, 1/AF-Bidhannagar, Kolkata - 700 064 (India); Ishtiaq, P.M.; Darzi, M.A.; Mir, T.A.; Shah, G.N. [Astrophysical Sciences Division, Nuclear Research Laboratory, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Srinagar - 190 006 (India)

    2016-03-21

    Lead-Free Gulmarg Neutron Monitor (LFGNM) provides continuous ground level intensity measurements of atmospheric secondary neutrons produced in interactions of primary cosmic rays with the Earth's constituent atmosphere. We report the LFGNM detector salient features and simulation of its energy response for 10{sup −11} MeV to 10{sup 4} MeV energy incident neutrons using the FLUKA Monte Carlo package. An empirical calibration of the LFGNM detector carried out with a Pu–Be neutron source for maximising its few MeV neutron counting sensitivity is also presented. As an illustration of its functionality a single representative transient solar modulation event recorded by LFGNM depicting Forbush decrease in integrated neutron data for which the geospace consequences are well known is also presented. Performance of LFGNM under actual observation conditions for effectively responding to transient solar modulation is seen to compare well with other world-wide conventional neutron monitors.

  8. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  9. XRD-based 40Ar/39Ar age correction for fine-grained illite, with application to folded carbonates in the Monterrey Salient (northern Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitz-Díaz, Elisa; Hall, Chris M.; van der Pluijm, Ben A.

    2016-05-01

    of retention capability, degassing spectra were modeled for site XCA averages and overall XCA average. Modeling shows that local site age average best match the measured spectra, instead of a global average age, indicating that illite growth reflects local deformation, and is not the result of regional metamorphism. Modeling also shows that Ar-degassing spectra are very sensitive to grain size, such that age interpretation based on Ar-plateaus is meaningless for most fine-grained clays.

  10. Deep Salient Feature Based Anti-Noise Transfer Network for Scene Classification of Remote Sensing Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Gong

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing (RS scene classification is important for RS imagery semantic interpretation. Although tremendous strides have been made in RS scene classification, one of the remaining open challenges is recognizing RS scenes in low quality variance (e.g., various scales and noises. This paper proposes a deep salient feature based anti-noise transfer network (DSFATN method that effectively enhances and explores the high-level features for RS scene classification in different scales and noise conditions. In DSFATN, a novel discriminative deep salient feature (DSF is introduced by saliency-guided DSF extraction, which conducts a patch-based visual saliency (PBVS algorithm using “visual attention” mechanisms to guide pre-trained CNNs for producing the discriminative high-level features. Then, an anti-noise network is proposed to learn and enhance the robust and anti-noise structure information of RS scene by directly propagating the label information to fully-connected layers. A joint loss is used to minimize the anti-noise network by integrating anti-noise constraint and a softmax classification loss. The proposed network architecture can be easily trained with a limited amount of training data. The experiments conducted on three different scale RS scene datasets show that the DSFATN method has achieved excellent performance and great robustness in different scales and noise conditions. It obtains classification accuracy of 98.25%, 98.46%, and 98.80%, respectively, on the UC Merced Land Use Dataset (UCM, the Google image dataset of SIRI-WHU, and the SAT-6 dataset, advancing the state-of-the-art substantially.

  11. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  12. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEORIES AND MODELS, A COMPARATIVE ANALYSE.CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva\tDHIMITRI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Local governance is a broad concept and is defined as the formulation and execution of collective action at the local level. The purpose of local government is to ensure effective and efficient use of public resources and service delivery at the level closest to citizens. Regional development is a new concept that aims to stimulate and diversify the economic activity of a country (region, to encourage investment in the private sector, to create a new jobs vacancy and improves living standards of the country. Regional development policies are a number of measures designed and promoted by the central and local administration, but the cooperation undertaken at the actors are in a different one, which included the private sector and civil society. At the center of these regional policies or practices is the use of efficient potential of each region, being particularly focused on business, means promoting the development of the new enterprises, promoting labor market and investment, improve the quality of environment, health , education and culture. Traditional objective of regional development policies is the reduction of territorial disparities for achieving a relative balance between economic and social levels of development in different areas in the national territory. Regional development is the actual task of local government units in Albania, and is one of the tasks and challenges of the future. Currently it takes a special importance in the context of European Union integration. Reforms have begun to change the system in 1990 in order to implement local democracy and decentralization principles that are present today. Inequalities that exist within the region and between them indicate that in some regions the economic potential is not being fully utilized, and that it reduces the overall performance in national level.

  13. The structural geometry and development of the central Appalachian fold-and thrust belt across the Pennsylvania salient: The effects of syntectonic loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Mark

    2017-04-01

    The Pennsylvania salient is a classic arcuate fold-and-thrust belt that was deformed during the Late Paleozoic Alleghenian orogeny. 38 regional cross-sections with an along-strike spacing of 5 to 10 km were constructed, and show that the structural geometry varies significantly from the 030°-striking southwestern segment to 060°-striking northeastern segment. The primary competent lithotectonic unit is the 2 to 3 km thick Cambro-Ordovician carbonate sequence which is detached along a Cambrian clastic unit. The 5 to 7 km thick preserved Upper Paleozoic sequence is less homogeneous, and locally exhibits significant internal deformation. In the southwest part of the salient, the hinterland part of the fold belt is defined by a series of imbricated Cambro-Ordovician carbonate horses with leading-edge fault-propagation style folds that have a structural amplitude of 5 to 7 km. In the central part of the fold belt, the Broadtop synclinorium exhibits little to no imbrication of the Cambro-Ordovician unit, while in the western part of the belt toward the foreland, two additional carbonate horses with leading-edge fault-propagation style folds comprise the Wills Mt. anticlinorium. In the central and eastern parts of the salient, the structural geometry toward the foreland is defined by a duplex with 4 -5 imbricate horses of Cambro-Ordovician carbonates that transitions to an antiformal stack of two to three carbonate thrust sheets comprising the Nittany anticlinorium. Toward the hinterland, the Cambro-Ordovician carbonate sequence is faulted into broadly-spaced fault-related folds, and includes the regionally continuous (>160 km) Jacks Mt. - Berwick anticline that spans both limbs of the salient. Upon retrodeformation of the cross sections, the 060°-striking northeastern segment restoration path curves 25°-30° to the east, while the 030°-striking southwestern segment curves 20°-25° to the south. The major fault underlying the presently curved Jacks Mt. - Berwick

  14. MODEL OF REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: MAIN ACTORS, FRAMEWORK AND THEORY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla LEVITSKAIA

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  15. Network Modelling of Transboundary Cooperation between Russian and Belarusian Regional Enterprises: the case of the Kaliningrad and Grodno Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivchenko Vladislav

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the development of a new process within Russian-Belarusian-Kazakh integration — interregional transborder cooperation. Network modelling is suggested as a mechanism for its regulation. The authors present a network model of transborder cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus based on the case of the Kaliningrad and Grodno regions. The model is developed on the basis of the well-known and widely accepted PERT. It covers the three main stages of the whole transborder cooperation process identified in the case of the two regions — the Kaliningrad and Grodno: organisational and analytical support, methodological and technological support, and the development of a complex cooperation programme. The working version of the model includes approximately 150 events. As to its purpose, it is a representation of a well-balanced established international coordination programme of transboundary cooperation at a level of two regions.

  16. Use of regional climate models data for groundwater recharge modelling in Baltic artesian basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, A.; Klints, I.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.

    2012-04-01

    Baltic artesian basin (BAB) covers about 480000 square kilometres. BAB includes territory of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and Baltic Sea. The closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB is developed in University of Latvia and reference calculations made in steady state mode. No-flow boundary condition is applied on the bottom and side boundaries of BAB. Hydraulic head is fixed on the seabed and largest lakes, and along the main river lines. Main water supply wells also are presented in the model as a pointwise water extraction. Precipitation is the main source of the groundwater recharge in the BAB region. Infiltration parameterization is responsible for this water source in BAB model. During the early stage of calibration of BAB hydrogeological model an automatic calibration for the hydraulic conductivities of permeable layers and single infiltration rate was attempted. Performing BAB model calibration it was noted that the differences of calculated and observed hydraulic heads (used for calculating the calibration penalty function) can be reduced by introducing a spatially distributed infiltration model. The aim of the present study is improving of the infiltration model, as well as preserving a short computation time (several minutes) for the piezometric head. Direct solution of improvement of the infiltration would be a usage of the advanced hydrological models. However, an accurate hydrological model requires a lot of computational power. It should couple meteorological and hydrological parameters and requires additional calibration. The regional climate model (KNMI-RACMO2 25 km resolution) results from ENSEMBLES project are used for the spatially distributed infiltration field calculation. The infiltration field is constructed as weighted difference of 30 year averaged precipitation and evaporation fields. The weight value is calibrated and a considerable decrease of the value of penalty function of the groundwater

  17. Dynamic routing problems with fruitful regions: models and evolutionary computation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.I. van Hemert; J.A. La Poutré (Han)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce the concept of fruitful regions in a dynamic routing context: regions that have a high potential of generating loads to be transported. The objective is to maximise the number of loads transported, while keeping to capacity and time constraints. Loads arrive while the

  18. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    microphysics. Simple ice. (Dudhia). Explicit cloud water/ice prediction. Slingo's scheme/ grid scale rain. WSM 3-class simple ice. Radiation. Simple cooling. GFDL. GFDL. RRTM (LW). Dudhia (SW). Gravity wave drag. No ... region to cater to the need of the national STORM. (Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional.

  19. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.

    2013-03-26

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  20. Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

    2017-12-01

    The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

  1. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...

  2. Technical Documentation of the Regional Manure Management Model for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Aillery, Marcel P.; Gollehon, Noel; Breneman, Vincent E.

    2005-01-01

    The Regional Manure Management Model, developed for the ERS project on "Manure Management for Improved Water Quality," is used to evaluate the cost and feasibility of manure land application as a manure management strategy at the regional level. This model is a nonlinear mathematical programming model of animal manure-nutrient production and distribution applied to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The model is designed to assess regional costs of manure management, transport, and land applicatio...

  3. Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayanarayanan Sanjay

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036–2065 and far-future (2066–2095 periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 °C during winter than of 4.9 °C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5 scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly sub-region within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM

  4. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  5. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  6. Regional modeling of cadmium leaching to groundwater in the Kempen region, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Grift, B.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; Griffioen, J.

    2003-01-01

    Sandy soils in the border area of Belgium and the Netherlands (the Kempen region), are heavily contaminated with cadmium and zinc by atmospheric deposition from nearby smelters. Leaching of heavy metals from the topsoil is a major risk for groundwater contamination. The sandy soils in the Kempen

  7. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  8. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional ...... preferable to at-site estimation in moderately heterogeneous and homogeneous regions for large sample sizes. Modest intersite dependence has only a small effect on the performance of the regional index-flood estimator.......A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...

  9. Simplified two and fifty-one region state-based EEIO model comparison

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Supporting data for 2 region and 51 region models assessed in the manuscript "Exploring the relevance of spatial scale to life cycle inventory results using...

  10. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  11. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  12. Multi-scale Regions from Edge Fragments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kazmi, Wajahat; Andersen, Hans Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    In this article we introduce a novel method for detecting multi-scale salient regions around edges using a graph based image compression algorithm. Images are recursively decomposed into triangles arranged into a binary tree using linear interpolation. The entropy of any local region of the image...... to estimate regions. Salient regions are thus formed as stable regions around edges. Tree hierarchy is then used to generate multi-scale regions. We evaluate our detector by performing image retrieval tests on our building database which shows that combined with Spin Images (Lazebnik et al., 2003...

  13. Salient design features of secondary containment structure of Narora Atomic Power Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahalkar, B.D.

    1975-01-01

    Design of the secondary containment structure for Narora Atomic Power Project is an improvement over the two earlier structures at of Rajasthan and Kalpakkam wherein Candu-type of reactors are involved. The major improvements envisaged are : to limit the leakage through the double containment envelope to 0.1% of volume of the building per day as against 0.1% per hour achieved for earlier stations; to separate heavy water atmosphere from that of light water for effective heavy water recovery; and better man-rem budgetting by limiting inner containment structure upto boiler room floor level and making boiler room area accessible during normal operation for servicing of light water system equipment. Narora Atomic Power Station is located in the Indo-Gangetic alluvial plains in seismically active zone IV. Comprehensive soil investigation, including dynamic properties of soil is required to be undertaken as the foundation level of the containment structure is 17 M below the ground level. The salient results of this investigation relevant to the foundations as well as type of foundation proposed are presented in brief. Double containment concept similar to that adopted for Kalpakkam station is provided for this station also. However, necessary changes in design to withstand large earthquake forces are required to be made. These design problems are discussed in brief. (author)

  14. Affectively salient meaning in random noise: a task sensitive to psychosis liability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galdos, Mariana; Simons, Claudia; Fernandez-Rivas, Aranzazu; Wichers, Marieke; Peralta, Concepción; Lataster, Tineke; Amer, Guillermo; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Allardyce, Judith; Gonzalez-Torres, Miguel Angel; van Os, Jim

    2011-11-01

    Stable differences in the tendency to attribute meaning and emotional value to experience may represent an indicator of liability to psychosis. A brief task was developed assessing variation in detecting affectively meaningful speech (speech illusion) in neutral random signals (white noise) and the degree to which this was associated with psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis. Thirty patients, 28 of their siblings, and 307 controls participated. The rate of speech illusion was compared between cases and controls. In controls, the association between speech illusion and interview-based positive schizotypy was assessed. The hypothesis of a dose-response increase in rate of speech illusion across increasing levels of familial vulnerability for psychosis (controls, siblings of patients, and patients) was examined. Patients were more likely to display speech illusions than controls (odds ratio [OR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-11.7), also after controlling for neurocognitive variables (OR = 3.8, 95% CI = 1.04-14.1). The case-control difference was more accentuated for speech illusion perceived as affectively salient (positively or negatively appraised) than for neutrally appraised speech illusions. Speech illusion in the controls was strongly associated with positive schizotypy but not with negative schizotypy. In addition, the rate of speech illusion increased with increasing level of familial risk for psychotic disorder. The data suggest that the white noise task may be sensitive to psychometric and familial vulnerability for psychosis associated with alterations in top-down processing and/or salience attribution.

  15. THE MODELING OF DRUG ADDICTION PREVALENCE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Sirotin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

  16. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

  17. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is an indicator of how stressed the active region flux system is and it is known to play an important role in the flaring .... P. C. acknowledges CSIR for financial support. References. Abramenko, V. I., Wang, T., Yurchishin, V. B. 1997, Solar Phys., 174, 291. Bao, S., Zhang, H. 1998, ApJ, 496, L43. Canfield, R. C., Pevtsov, A. A. ...

  18. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Key words. MHD—Sun: activity—Sun: magnetic fields—sunspots. 1. Introduction. Typically, solar active regions are known to have helicity associated with them and the ... hemisphere and positive in the southern hemisphere), in spite of a very large statistical ... When a new toroidal flux tube with positive Bφ moves upwards.

  19. SOCIAL CROWDFUNDING: A NEW MODEL FOR FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana BERNARDINO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crowdfunding is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of crowdfunding for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of crowdfunding on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we envisage to show the critical role of crowdfunding on regional development. The use of inferential techniques (Chi-square test, the Cramer’s V statistic, the Goodman and Kruskal λ and the odds ratio demonstrates that the use of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform was linked to the geographical location of the social venture as well as its geographical scope. Also, social ventures located on rural regions are more likely to use social crowdfunding platforms than social ventures located in urban areas. Further, the circumstance of having the social ventures acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using crowdfunding for financing social projects.

  20. Red to Green or Fast to Slow? Infants' Visual Working Memory for "Just Salient Differences"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldy, Zsuzsa; Blaser, Erik

    2013-01-01

    In this study, 6-month-old infants' visual working memory for a static feature (color) and a dynamic feature (rotational motion) was compared. Comparing infants' use of different features can only be done properly if experimental manipulations to those features are equally salient (Kaldy & Blaser, 2009; Kaldy, Blaser, & Leslie,…

  1. Comparison of multi-media transport and transformation models: regional fugacity model vs. CalTOX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddalena, R L; McKone, T E; Layton, D W; Hsieh, D P

    1995-03-01

    Two multimedia environmental transport and transformation computer models are summarized and compared. The regional fugacity model published by Mackay and Paterson (1991), termed Fug3ONT, is a four compartment steady-state model designed to simulate the relative distribution of nonionic organic chemicals in a multimedia system. CalTOX is a seven compartment multimedia total exposure model for hazardous waste sites. Both models are based on the principles of fugacity. CalTOX, however, separates the soil into three layers (surface, root, and vadose) and uses a different approach to estimate the diffusive mass transfer rate in soil. These differences result in lower estimates of the steady-state contaminant concentrations of six environmentally relevant chemicals in the root soil of CalTOX as compared to the bulk soil of Fug3ONT. The difference is greatest for compounds with low mobility in soil such as 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and Benzo(a)pyrene where estimates from CalTOX and Fug3ONT differ by more than 3 orders of magnitude. Otherwise, the models provide similar estimates for the distribution of the six chemicals among the air, water, sediment and surface soil.

  2. METEOROLOGICAL MODELLING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION PREDICTABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Bande, Stefano; D'Allura, Alessio; Finardi, Sandro; Giorcelli, Matteo; Muraro, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: ARPA Piemonte performs yearly air quality assessment running a modelling system based on a chemical transport model. The model is capable to simulate air pollutant emission, transport, diffusion and chemical transformation, to provide concentration fields of the main atmospheric pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, O3, and benzene) on a hourly basis and to compute all the indicators required by EU legislation. Meteorological fields to drive air quality simulations are rec...

  3. A D-region conductivity model from EISCAT VHF measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schlegel

    Full Text Available An easy-to-use model to evaluate conductivities at high and middle latitudes in the height range 70–100 km is presented. It is based on electron density profiles obtained with the EISCAT VHF radar during 11 years and on the neutral atmospheric model MSIS95. The model uses solar zenith angle, geomagnetic activity and season as input parameters. It was mainly constructed to study the properties of Schumann resonances that depend on such conductivity profiles.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmospheric dynamics – Ionosphere (modeling and forecasting; ionosphere-atmosphere interaction

  4. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  5. STUDYING THE EFFECT OF AN ADDITIONAL ACTIVE RESISTANCE IN THE FIELD WINDING CIRCUIT ON STARTING CHARACTERISTICS OF SALIENT-POLE SYNCHRONOUS MOTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Malyar

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the developed method for calculating steady-state asynchronous operation modes of salient-pole synchronous motors, a procedure of mathematical modelling of the starting characteristics is proposed. The problem of calculating the steady-state asynchronous mode is solved as a boundary value one for differential equations of motor circuit electrical equilibrium. Algebraization of the system of differential equations is carried out by approximating the equations of state using cubic spline functions on a grid of period nodes, taking into account the periodic law of variation of the coordinates. This results in the changeover from continual values to nodal ones. The starting static characteristics are calculated using the parameter continuation method. The study of the effect of the starting resistance value on the asynchronous characteristics of the motor relied on a mathematical model of the motor taking into consideration real field circuits, saturation and asymmetry of the magnetic path.

  6. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  7. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  8. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2001-03-01

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  9. Estimasi Permintaan Agregat Regional Provinsi Jambi (Pendekatan Model Makro Ekonomi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huriyah

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The research objective was to analyzing fluctuations in aggregate demand growth variables are C, I, G, X, M and also regional gross domestic product for the year 1993-2010. To calculate and analyze some of the factors that affect the change of macro-regional components of aggregate demand in the years 1993-2010 Jambi Province. During the period 1993-2010 the economic growth rate Jambi average of 5 percent annually. Partially visible growth of household consumption by 23 percent investment by 18 per cent, 26 per cent of government spending, net exports of 43 percent. For calculate and analyze some factor that affect the change, here using regression equation with non log and log.

  10. Multi-region Statistical Shape Model for Cochlear Implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    Statistical shape models are commonly used to analyze the variability between similar anatomical structures and their use is established as a tool for analysis and segmentation of medical images. However, using a global model to capture the variability of complex structures is not enough to achie...

  11. A generalized regional design storm rainfall model for Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Design of drainage and dam structures involves a full understanding of the duration, magnitude and volume of peak flood flows anticipated. For gauged catchments a number of established flood frequency models and rainfall-runoff models are used widely. However, most planned developments for bridge or dam or any ...

  12. OtagoNet: One Region's Model for Virtual Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Keryn; Pullar, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Virtual schools are increasingly common in New Zealand and internationally as schools are challenged to meet the needs of their students. This article presents a description of the distance-learning model used by a group of schools in rural Otago for the last decade. The leadership team and roles are described, and the funding model, which is…

  13. One-dimensional diffusion model in an Inhomogeneous region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Fedotov, I

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A one-dimensional model is developed to describe atomic diffusion in a graphite tube atomizer for electrothermal atomic adsorption spectrometry. The underlying idea of the model is the solution of an inhomogeneous one-dimensional diffusion equation...

  14. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  15. Impacts of regional land-grab on regional hydroclimate in southeastern Africa via modeling and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

    2017-12-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are significant enough to induce changes in the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and its interaction with the atmosphere above. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models or Earth System Models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from timber harvesting due to a land grab boom in Mozambique. We also focus more narrowly at quantifying regional impacts on Gorongosa National Park, a nationally important economic and biodiversity resource in southeastern Africa. After nationalizing all land in 1975 after Mozambique gained independence, complex social processes, including an extended low intensity conflict civil war and economic hardships, led to an escalation of land use rights grants to foreign governments. Between 2004 and 2009, large tracts of land were requested for timber. Here we use existing tree cover loss datasets to more accurately represent land cover within a regional weather model. LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is updated at three instances between 2001 and 2014 using a tree cover loss dataset. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the land grab. Results suggest that the land grab has impacted microclimate parameters in a significant way via direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions

  16. Modeling regional population-employment dynamics across different sectors of the economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaff, T. de; Oort, F.G. van; Florax, R.

    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of

  17. Statistical Model and the mesonic-baryonic transition region

    CERN Document Server

    Oeschler, H.; Redlich, K.; Wheaton, S.

    2009-01-01

    The statistical model assuming chemical equilibriumand local strangeness conservation describes most of the observed features of strange particle production from SIS up to RHIC. Deviations are found as the maximum in the measured K+/pi+ ratio is much sharper than in the model calculations. At the incident energy of the maximum, the statistical model shows that freeze out changes regime from one being dominated by baryons at the lower energies toward one being dominated by mesons. It will be shown how deviations from the usual freeze-out curve influence the various particle ratios. Furthermore, other observables exhibit also changes just in this energy regime.

  18. A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2005-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data

  19. CORTICAL RESPONSES TO SALIENT NOCICEPTIVE AND NOT NOCICEPTIVE STIMULI IN VEGETATIVE AND MINIMAL CONSCIOUS STATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARINA eDE TOMMASO

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims Questions regarding perception of pain in non-communicating patients and the management of pain continue to raise controversy both at a clinical and ethical level. The aim of this study was to examine the cortical response to salient multimodal visual, acoustic, somatosensory electric non nociceptive and nociceptive laser stimuli and their correlation with the clinical evaluation.Methods: Five Vegetative State (VS, 4 Minimally Conscious State (MCS patients and 11 age- and sex-matched controls were examined. Evoked responses were obtained by 64 scalp electrodes, while delivering auditory, visual, non-noxious electrical and noxious laser stimulation, which were randomly presented every 10 sec. Laser, somatosensory, auditory and visual evoked responses were identified as a negative-positive (N2-P2 vertex complex in the 500 msec post-stimulus time. We used Nociception Coma Scale-Revised (NCS-R and Coma Recovery Scale (CRS-R for clinical evaluation of pain perception and consciousness impairment.Results: The laser evoked potentials (LEPs were recognizable in all cases. Only one MCS patient showed a reliable cortical response to all the employed stimulus modalities. One VS patient did not present cortical responses to any other stimulus modality. In the remaining participants, auditory, visual and electrical related potentials were inconstantly present. Significant N2 and P2 latency prolongation occurred in both VS and MCS patients. The presence of a reliable cortical response to auditory, visual and electric stimuli was able to correctly classify VS and MCS patients with 90% accuracy. Laser P2 and N2 amplitudes were not correlated with the CRS-R and NCS-R scores, while auditory and electric related potentials amplitude were associated with the motor response to pain and consciousness recovery. Discussion: pain arousal may be a primary function also in vegetative state patients while the relevance of other stimulus modalities may indicate the

  20. Atmospheric CO2 modeling at the regional scale: an intercomparison of 5 meso-scale atmospheric models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarrat, C.; Noilhan, J.; Dolman, A.J.; Gerbig, C.; Ahmadov, R.; Tolk, L.F.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Maat, ter H.W.; Pérez-Landa, G.; Donier, S.

    2007-01-01

    Atmospheric CO2 modeling in interaction with the surface fluxes, at the regional scale is developed within the frame of the European project CarboEurope-IP and its Regional Experiment component. In this context, five meso-scale meteorological models participate in an intercomparison exercise. Using

  1. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2018-01-02

    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  2. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region.

    OpenAIRE

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    Bicycle transport has traditionally been underrepresented in traffic models, because historically the main focus has been on modelling more resource-intensive investments in motor traffic roads and public transport. In order to decrease road congestion and to reduce the related health and societal problems, there is a growing interest in promoting more sustainable transport systems, with a particular emphasis on the bicycle as a sustainable transport alternative. Accordingly, the objective of...

  3. Evaluation process radiological in ternopil region method of box models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.В. Матвєєва

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available  Results of radionuclides Sr-90 flows analyses in the ecosystem of Kotsubinchiky village of Ternopolskaya oblast were analyzed. The block-scheme of ecosystem and its mathematical model using the box models method were made. It allowed us to evaluate the ways of dose’s loadings formation of internal irradiation for miscellaneous population groups – working people, retirees, children, and also to prognose the dynamic of these loadings during the years after the Chernobyl accident.

  4. Establishment of modified reversible regional cerebral ischemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Xunming; Ling Feng; Zhao Xiqing; Xuan Yun; Wang Yueqin; Ling Xiaolan; Chang Hongjun; Zhang Zhiping

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Modifying the method of establishing reversible middle cerebral ischemic models in rats for improvement of the stability and rate of success, so as to raise the reliability of cerebral ischemic study. Methods: Sixty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups, modified and control groups, 30 rats in each group. The method of silicone- tipping on one end of the nylon suture was used to modify the establishment of embolus, and tip-heating method was used to establish the traditional embolus with all the other steps of the procedure just the same. The Zea Longa 5 scoring scale was used to estimate the neurological deficiency while TTC staining method was used to measure and calculate the volume of cerebral infarction. The percentage of successful models with 3-4 grade scorings and the coefficient of the variations of cerebral infarct volume were used to estimate the stability of the models. Results: The rate of success of establishment models in the modification group was significantly higher in comparing with the traditional group (93% vs 60%, χ 2 =9.32, P=0.002). The percentage of model establishment with 3-4 grade neurological scores in modification group was higher than that in the traditional group 96.4% vs 61.2%, χ 2 =9.51, P=0.002). The cerebral infarct volume in modification group and traditional group were (4.1450±0.5019) cm 3 and (3.8435 ± 0.8164) cm 3 , and the coefficients of variation were 12.01% and 21.24% respectively, which indicated that the stability of models was significantly higher in modification group than in the traditional one. Conclusions: The rates of success and stability of the models for reversible focal cerebral ischemia made by the modification method were significantly improved, with decreasing the cost of model creation and increasing the accuracy of study of ischemic cerebral vascular disease. (authors)

  5. Visual Saliency Models for Text Detection in Real World.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renwu Gao

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the degree of saliency of texts in natural scenes using visual saliency models. A large scale scene image database with pixel level ground truth is created for this purpose. Using this scene image database and five state-of-the-art models, visual saliency maps that represent the degree of saliency of the objects are calculated. The receiver operating characteristic curve is employed in order to evaluate the saliency of scene texts, which is calculated by visual saliency models. A visualization of the distribution of scene texts and non-texts in the space constructed by three kinds of saliency maps, which are calculated using Itti's visual saliency model with intensity, color and orientation features, is given. This visualization of distribution indicates that text characters are more salient than their non-text neighbors, and can be captured from the background. Therefore, scene texts can be extracted from the scene images. With this in mind, a new visual saliency architecture, named hierarchical visual saliency model, is proposed. Hierarchical visual saliency model is based on Itti's model and consists of two stages. In the first stage, Itti's model is used to calculate the saliency map, and Otsu's global thresholding algorithm is applied to extract the salient region that we are interested in. In the second stage, Itti's model is applied to the salient region to calculate the final saliency map. An experimental evaluation demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms Itti's model in terms of captured scene texts.

  6. SIMULATION MODEL BASED ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND VIRTUAL CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Dlask

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on change as an indicator that can be provide more focused goals in studies of development. The paper offers an answer to the question: How might management gain information from a simulation model and thus influence reality through pragmatic changes. We focus on where and when to influence, manage, and control basic technical-economic proposals. These proposals are mostly formed as simulation models. Unfortunately, however, they do not always provide an explanation of formation changes. A wide variety of simulation tools have become available, e.g. Simulink, Wolfram SystemModeler, VisSim, SystemBuild, STELLA, Adams, SIMSCRIPT, COMSOL Multiphysics, etc. However, there is only limited support for the construction of simulation models of a technical-economic nature. Mathematics has developed the concept of differentiation. Economics has developed the concept of marginality. Technical-economic design has yet to develop an equivalent methodology. This paper discusses an,alternative approach that uses the phenomenon of change, and provides a way from professional knowledge, which can be seen as a purer kind of information, to a more dynamic computing model (a simulation model that interprets changes as method. The validation of changes, as a result for use in managerial decision making, and condition for managerial decision making, can thus be improved.

  7. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  8. Extreme rainfall in West Africa: A regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.; Blanchet, J.; Quantin, G.; Ali, A.

    2012-08-01

    In a world of increasing exposure of populations to natural hazards, the mapping of extreme rainfall remains a key subject of study. Such maps are required for both flood risk management and civil engineering structure design, the challenge being to take into account the local information provided by point rainfall series as well as the necessity of some regional coherency. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory are compared here, with an application to extreme rainfall mapping in West Africa. The first approach is a local fit and interpolation (LFI) consisting of a spatial interpolation of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters estimated independently at each station. The second approach is a spatial maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE); it directly estimates the GEV distribution over the entire region by a single maximum likelihood fit using jointly all measurements combined with spatial covariates. Five LFI and three SMLE methods are considered, using the information provided by 126 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-1990. The methods are first evaluated in calibration. Then the predictive skills and the robustness are assessed through a cross validation and an independent network validation process. The SMLE approach, especially when using the mean annual rainfall as covariate, appears to perform better for most of the scores computed. Using the Niamey 104 year time series, it is also shown that the SMLE approach has the capacity to deal more efficiently with the effect of local outliers by using the spatial information provided by nearby stations.

  9. A model of Dutch agriculture based on Positive Mathematical Programming with regional and environmental applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, J.F.M.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to describe the current state-of-the-art of the Dutch Regionalized Agricultural Model (DRAM). DRAM can be defined as a comparative static, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming and regionalized model of the Dutch agricultural sector with environmental aspects.

  10. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

    1997-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  11. Biomass measurement and modeling challenges for hardwood species in the northern region

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Westfall; David W. MacFarlane; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2012-01-01

    Biomass models for most commercially important hardwood species in the northern region of the U.S. are often based on data of very limited spatial extent and range of tree characteristics, suggesting uncertain accuracy when applied at regional scales. Also, the current models can have poor predictive ability for the proportions of biomass found in major tree components...

  12. A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.

  13. Regional Public Stock Reductions in Spain: Estimations from a Multiregional Spatial Vector Autorregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A Márquez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the impact of public investment on regional economic growth requires consideration of the spatio-temporal dynamics among the state variables of each region.  Recent austerity policies in Spain that feature temporary decreases in the accumulation of regional public capital should thus be evaluated in terms of their impact on the economy as a whole, on specific regions together with the spillovers effects from one region to the rest of the regional system.  Applying a multiregional integrated specification to model interdependencies across regions, our results indicate that, while global decreases in public investment have a homogenously negative effect on the output of all the regions, the Spanish regions portray heterogeneous responses from localized public capital stock reductions over the simulation period considered.

  14. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín

    such as car parking availability, park & ride opportunities, bicycle parking availability and type, and the possibility of carrying bicycles on trains. The choices between five alternative transport modes was analysed (i.e., walking, cycling, being a car driver, being a car passenger, and riding a bus) for 2...... parameters across modes, on a dataset including trip information and socioeconomic variables for 7,958 individuals and 10,982 trip chains with five available alternative modes (i.e., walking, cycling, car driver, car passenger, and public transport). The results showed that travellers’ have heterogeneous...... and then the probability of individuals, with that specific lifestyle, choosing a specific transport mode for short distances. Short trip chains in the Copenhagen Region were investigated, on a data sample with 10,982 observations with five available alternative modes (i.e., walking, cycling, car driver, car passenger...

  15. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temper- ature, specific humidity ...

  16. On Regional Modeling to Support Air Quality Policies (book chapter)

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examine the use of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in simulating the changes in the extreme values of air quality that are of interest to the regulatory agencies. Year-to-year changes in ozone air quality are attributable to variations in the prevailing meteo...

  17. Integrated Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of research and development. It is ...

  18. Regional climate model performance and prediction of seasonal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Knowledge about future climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. ... Impacts Studies) in simulating rainfall and temperature over Uganda and also assess future impacts of climate when forced by an ensemble of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) ...

  19. Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies have demonstrated that precipitation on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased in the last decades and that it is likely that this trend will continue. This will have an influence on discharge of the river Meuse. The use of bias correction methods is important when the effect of precipitation change on river discharge is studied. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of using two different bias correction methods on output from a Regional Climate Model (RCM simulation. In this study a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2 run is used, forced by ECHAM5/MPIOM under the condition of the SRES-A1B emission scenario, with a 25 km horizontal resolution. The RACMO2 runs contain a systematic precipitation bias on which two bias correction methods are applied. The first method corrects for the wet day fraction and wet day average (WD bias correction and the second method corrects for the mean and coefficient of variance (MV bias correction. The WD bias correction initially corrects well for the average, but it appears that too many successive precipitation days were removed with this correction. The second method performed less well on average bias correction, but the temporal precipitation pattern was better. Subsequently, the discharge was calculated by using RACMO2 output as forcing to the HBV-96 hydrological model. A large difference was found between the simulated discharge of the uncorrected RACMO2 run, the WD bias corrected run and the MV bias corrected run. These results show the importance of an appropriate bias correction.

  20. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  1. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  2. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2000-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

  3. Dynamical model for the narrow line region of Seyfert galaxies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mobasher, B.; Raine, D.J.

    1987-09-01

    Detailed emission line ratios and profiles have been computed for the 'catapult' model of the NLR. According to this model the emission lines arise from interstellar clouds interacting with a wind from the central source. For clouds which are ejected by the ram pressure of the wind agreement is found with average Seyfert 2 line ratios for the main diagnostic lines, within the 2sigma dispersions. This also gives the observed constancy of line profiles for different lines. The Seyfert 1 line ratios are obtained by adding a component of clouds which are not ejected. The predicted line ratios (relative to (O III)lambda5007) for Seyfert 1s agree to better than 1sigma with the observed averages.

  4. Conceptual design of a regional water quality screening model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M.J.

    1981-01-01

    This water quality assessment methodology is intended to predict concentrations at future times and to estimate the impacts on water quality of energy-related activities (including industrial boilers). Estimates of impacts on water quality at future times are based on incremental changes in pollutant inputs to the body water. Important features of the model are: use of measured concentrations to account for existing conditions; consideration of incremental changes in pollutant loads; emphasis on the energy sector and industrial boilers; analysis restricted to streams only; no attempt to fully account for pollutant behavior; and flexible design, so that future improvements can be incorporated. The basic approach is very similar to the one used by Argonne's ARQUAL model but will allow more complex pollutant behavior and more flexibility in use

  5. Regional differences in prediction models of lung function in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schäper Christoph

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about the influencing potential of specific characteristics on lung function in different populations. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether lung function determinants differ between subpopulations within Germany and whether prediction equations developed for one subpopulation are also adequate for another subpopulation. Methods Within three studies (KORA C, SHIP-I, ECRHS-I in different areas of Germany 4059 adults performed lung function tests. The available data consisted of forced expiratory volume in one second, forced vital capacity and peak expiratory flow rate. For each study multivariate regression models were developed to predict lung function and Bland-Altman plots were established to evaluate the agreement between predicted and measured values. Results The final regression equations for FEV1 and FVC showed adjusted r-square values between 0.65 and 0.75, and for PEF they were between 0.46 and 0.61. In all studies gender, age, height and pack-years were significant determinants, each with a similar effect size. Regarding other predictors there were some, although not statistically significant, differences between the studies. Bland-Altman plots indicated that the regression models for each individual study adequately predict medium (i.e. normal but not extremely high or low lung function values in the whole study population. Conclusions Simple models with gender, age and height explain a substantial part of lung function variance whereas further determinants add less than 5% to the total explained r-squared, at least for FEV1 and FVC. Thus, for different adult subpopulations of Germany one simple model for each lung function measures is still sufficient.

  6. CO{sub 2}MPARE. CO2 Model for Operational Programme Assessment in EU Regions. Technical background and guidance for deployment in EU regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hekkenberg, M. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Le Pierres, S. [Energies Demain, Montreuil Sous Bois (France); Del Ciello, R. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA, Rome (Italy); Keppo, I. [University College London UCL, London (United Kingdom); Papagianni, S. [Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving CRES, Pikermi Attiki (Greece); Harnych, J. [ENVIROS, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2013-03-15

    The CO2MPARE model enables national and regional authorities to assess the carbon impacts of Operational Programmes co-financed through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). This document provides technical background information and guidance for deploying the model in additional EU regions.

  7. Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in a 3-Dimensional Regional Air Quality Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelangeli, D.; Xia, A.; Makar, P.

    2006-12-01

    An adaptation of the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yield method of Odum et al. [1996] has been used as a framework for the SOA formation, with extrapolation to low NOx/hydrocarbon ratios conditions, and including a parameterization for oligomer formation. The modified methodology includes: (1) extrapolation of the parameters used for the SOA formation from the oxidation of toluene to low NOx/HC ratio—resembling ambient atmospheric conditions; (2) a simplified parameterization scheme for the formation of the oligomers, which comprise half of the total SOA mass in the test conditions examined, (3) temperature dependencies inherent in vaporization enthalpy; (4) interactions with primary organic aerosols (POA) and (5) compound interaction through the application of a modified UNIFAC method, including water uptake due to the existence of the SOA. In comparison with previous work, the oligomers-formation scheme helps improve the predicted SOA mass concentrations compared to observations. The SOA module is implemented into a regional air quality model (MC2AQ) in the domain of Northeastern United States and Southern Ontario and Quebec during the month of July 1999. The model results are then evaluated against observational data from the IMPROVE network. Generally, the predicted POA are reasonably described at different monitoring sites. Moreover, the concentrations of the SOA and total organic aerosol (TOA) at the rural areas are close to the observed data; however, the SOA concentrations are underpredicted at a selected urban site, which leads to the underprediction of the TOA at the urban site. This is partly due to the lumping of the chemical mechanism for the SOA formation in the urban atmosphere. Moreover, the overall gas/particle partitioning is analyzed during the study period at two representative sites. The results showed that temperature has a stronger effect on SOA formation than the presence of POA, and low temperature is favored to the formation of the SOA

  8. Modeling the wind-fields of accidental releases with an operational regional forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, J.R.; Lee, R.L.; Sugiyama, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is an operational emergency preparedness and response organization supported primarily by the Departments of Energy and Defense. ARAC can provide real-time assessments of atmospheric releases of radioactive materials at any location in the world. ARAC uses robust three-dimensional atmospheric transport and dispersion models, extensive geophysical and dose-factor databases, meteorological data-acquisition systems, and an experienced staff. Although it was originally conceived and developed as an emergency response and assessment service for nuclear accidents, the ARAC system has been adapted to also simulate non-radiological hazardous releases. For example, in 1991 ARAC responded to three major events: the oil fires in Kuwait, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and the herbicide spill into the upper Sacramento River in California. ARAC's operational simulation system, includes two three-dimensional finite-difference models: a diagnostic wind-field scheme, and a Lagrangian particle-in-cell transport and dispersion scheme. The meteorological component of ARAC's real-time response system employs models using real-time data from all available stations near the accident site to generate a wind-field for input to the transport and dispersion model. Here we report on simulation studies of past and potential release sites to show that even in the absence of local meteorological observational data, readily available gridded analysis and forecast data and a prognostic model, the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System, applied at an appropriate grid resolution can successfully simulate complex local flows

  9. Cortical responses to salient nociceptive and not nociceptive stimuli in vegetative and minimal conscious state

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Tommaso, Marina; Navarro, Jorge; Lanzillotti, Crocifissa; Ricci, Katia; Buonocunto, Francesca; Livrea, Paolo; Lancioni, Giulio E.

    2015-01-01

    Aims: Questions regarding perception of pain in non-communicating patients and the management of pain continue to raise controversy both at a clinical and ethical level. The aim of this study was to examine the cortical response to salient visual, acoustic, somatosensory electric non-nociceptive and nociceptive laser stimuli and their correlation with the clinical evaluation. Methods: Five Vegetative State (VS), 4 Minimally Conscious State (MCS) patients and 11 age- and sex-matched controls were examined. Evoked responses were obtained by 64 scalp electrodes, while delivering auditory, visual, non-noxious electrical and noxious laser stimulation, which were randomly presented every 10 s. Laser, somatosensory, auditory and visual evoked responses were identified as a negative-positive (N2-P2) vertex complex in the 500 ms post-stimulus time. We used Nociception Coma Scale-Revised (NCS-R) and Coma Recovery Scale (CRS-R) for clinical evaluation of pain perception and consciousness impairment. Results: The laser evoked potentials (LEPs) were recognizable in all cases. Only one MCS patient showed a reliable cortical response to all the employed stimulus modalities. One VS patient did not present cortical responses to any other stimulus modality. In the remaining participants, auditory, visual and electrical related potentials were inconstantly present. Significant N2 and P2 latency prolongation occurred in both VS and MCS patients. The presence of a reliable cortical response to auditory, visual and electric stimuli was able to correctly classify VS and MCS patients with 90% accuracy. Laser P2 and N2 amplitudes were not correlated with the CRS-R and NCS-R scores, while auditory and electric related potentials amplitude were associated with the motor response to pain and consciousness recovery. Discussion: pain arousal may be a primary function also in vegetative state patients while the relevance of other stimulus modalities may indicate the degree of cognitive and motor

  10. Salient concerns in using analgesia for cancer pain among outpatients: A cluster analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meghani, Salimah H; Knafl, George J

    2017-02-10

    To identify unique clusters of patients based on their concerns in using analgesia for cancer pain and predictors of the cluster membership. This was a 3-mo prospective observational study ( n = 207). Patients were included if they were adults (≥ 18 years), diagnosed with solid tumors or multiple myelomas, and had at least one prescription of around-the-clock pain medication for cancer or cancer-treatment-related pain. Patients were recruited from two outpatient medical oncology clinics within a large health system in Philadelphia. A choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis experiment was used to elicit analgesic treatment preferences (utilities). Patients employed trade-offs based on five analgesic attributes (percent relief from analgesics, type of analgesic, type of side-effects, severity of side-effects, out of pocket cost). Patients were clustered based on CBC utilities using novel adaptive statistical methods. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify predictors of cluster membership. The analyses found 4 unique clusters: Most patients made trade-offs based on the expectation of pain relief (cluster 1, 41%). For a subset, the main underlying concern was type of analgesic prescribed, i.e ., opioid vs non-opioid (cluster 2, 11%) and type of analgesic side effects (cluster 4, 21%), respectively. About one in four made trade-offs based on multiple concerns simultaneously including pain relief, type of side effects, and severity of side effects (cluster 3, 28%). In multivariable analysis, to identify predictors of cluster membership, clinical and socioeconomic factors (education, health literacy, income, social support) rather than analgesic attitudes and beliefs were found important; only the belief, i.e ., pain medications can mask changes in health or keep you from knowing what is going on in your body was found significant in predicting two of the four clusters [cluster 1 (-); cluster 4 (+)]. Most patients appear to be driven by a single salient concern

  11. When Politics Matters: The Impact of Politicians' and Bureaucrats' Policy Preferences on Salient and Nonsalient Policy Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Martin; Blom-Hansen, Jens; Serritzlew, Søren

    2015-01-01

    in policy areas salient to the public, but not in less salient areas. This might be comforting news from a democratic perspective. However, since public budgets represent an easy case for political influence, it is food for thought that political preferences do not always prevail.......The public administration literature provides ample reasons why civil servants may be influential in public policy. However, for three decades, the ‘politics matters’ literature has found that political ideology is an important explanation of public policy, which indicates that politicians actually...... control their civil servants. But, the ‘politics matters’ literature systematically fails to include the influence of the bureaucracy. In fact, it is almost impossible to identify a single study in this literature that controls for the influence of the permanent bureaucracy. In this paper we investigate...

  12. Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Graf von der Schulenburg, Johann-Matthias; Greiner, Wolfgang

    2015-11-17

    Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

  13. Introducing Sectoral Models into Regional Management: An Assessment of Regulatory Impacts on the Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.Yu.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Regardless of the geography of regions, management at the regional level, both in Russia and the Baltic Sea countries, faces many challenges. Hence, it is necessary to search for new effective economic management tools, since traditional approaches and modeling practices at the regional level are not suitable for either analysing various types of impact on regional economy (production, market (product, sector, region, or assessment of their consequences and identification of the necessary measures in any given economic conditions. The authors construct sectoral models to assess regulatory impacts on regional economic performance. Assessments of regulatory impacts on product value chains, economic sectors, and regions as a whole show good repeatability, which makes it possible to provide a rationale for economic decision-making. The authors propose new sectoral models using the Kaliningrad region as an example. The models are used in a comprehensive analysis of conditions for a GRP growth resulting from an increase in sectoral contributions. To this end, the study uses the well-known approaches of simulation modelling, as well as qualitative and quantitative methods in combination with economic-mathematical optimisation models. The article presents a pilot model of regulatory impacts for selected sectors of the Kaliningrad economy. The developed and tested models suggest that a rationale for economic decision-making and consequent actions should be based on the assessment of the impact of different groups of external, internal, and independent factors on value chains, based on the criterion of optimal factor income. In conclusion, the authors offer recommendations for using the proposed models in business, public administration and regional economic modeling.

  14. Water Discolouration Risk Mapping: a Regionally Mapped Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M.; Arrell, K.; McDonald, A.; Tillotson, M.; Foulger, M.; Walker, A.

    2006-12-01

    Discolouration in catchment waters is caused by the release through oxidation, warming and biological decomposition of the soil. Catchments that yield highly discoloured waters not only increase treatment and sludge disposal costs but also risk compliance failures and increase the potential for Trihalomethane (THM) production; an unwanted byproduct of water chlorination. Therefore it is important for water companies to quantify and map water discolouration risk within their catchments to guide surveillance and intervention strategies. Yorkshire Water Services derives significant water resources from upland catchments. These catchments continue to produce increasing quantities of discolouration which are problematic and costly to treat. The company is taking several initiatives to manage colour. Traditional water colour studies tend to be restricted in scale and are unable to make conclusions about water colour production within a region. Sensitivities of water colour production to feedbacks and interactions between multiple factors also remains largely unquantified. This research addressed these limitations and mapped water discolouration risk for the Yorkshire Water area. Many factors are believed to influence colour production within a catchment. These are divided into two groups: dynamic factors for example, drought frequency, duration and severity or changes in the levels of acid precipitation; and static factors that are catchment specific, such as land management techniques, slope, soil type and erosion. A map of discolouration risk was created by sourcing and combining data for each of these variables. Data were categorised as either factors or constraints on water colour production and combined in a series of weighted overlays within a GIS, reflecting recent research on the processes leading to water colour production. Resulting risk maps identified a large variability in risk throughout study catchments. Analyses were also undertaken to examine the

  15. Salient beliefs about eating and buying dark green vegetables as told by Mid-western African–American women☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheats, Jylana L.; Middlestadt, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetables in the dark green group are the most nutritious, yet intake is low. Studies suggest that an increase in fruit and vegetables may improve diet-related health outcomes of African Americans. The aim of this exploratory study was to use the Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) to qualitatively assess salient, top-of-the-mind, beliefs (consequences, circumstances and referents) about eating and buying more dark green leafy vegetables each week over the next 3 months. Adult (n = 30), Midwestern African–American women, who buy and prepare food for their household participated in a face-to-face salient belief elicitation. A content analysis of verbatim text and a descriptive analysis were conducted. Findings suggest that the RAA can be used to identify salient consequences, circumstances and referents about eating and buying more dark green leafy vegetables. The use of the RAA allowed for the extraction of specific beliefs that may aid in the development of nutrition education programs that consider the varying priorities, motivators and barriers that subgroups within the population have in regard to buying and consuming dark green leafy vegetables. PMID:23415980

  16. Automatic Multi-Scale Calibration Procedure for Nested Hydrological-Hydrogeological Regional Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labarthe, B.; Abasq, L.; Flipo, N.; de Fouquet, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    Large hydrosystem modelling and understanding is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. A nested interface concept has been implemented in the hydrosystem modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (300 km2) part of a 11000 km2 multi-layer aquifer system, included in the Seine basin (65000 km2, France). The platform couples hydrological and hydrogeological processes through four spatially distributed modules (Mass balance, Unsaturated Zone, River and Groundwater). An automatic multi-scale calibration procedure is proposed. Using different data sets from regional scale (117 gauging stations and 183 piezometers over the 65000 km2) to the intermediate scale(dense past piezometric snapshot), it permits the calibration and homogenization of model parameters over scales.The stepwise procedure starts with the optimisation of the water mass balance parameters at regional scale using a conceptual 7 parameters bucket model coupled with the inverse modelling tool PEST. The multi-objective function is derived from river discharges and their de-composition by hydrograph separation. The separation is performed at each gauging station using an automatic procedure based one Chapman filter. Then, the model is run at the regional scale to provide recharge estimate and regional fluxes to the groundwater local model. Another inversion method is then used to determine the local hydrodynamic parameters. This procedure used an initial kriged transmissivity field which is successively updated until the simulated hydraulic head distribution equals a reference one obtained by krigging. Then, the local parameters are upscaled to the regional model by renormalisation procedure.This multi-scale automatic calibration procedure enhances both the local and regional processes representation. Indeed, it permits a better description of local heterogeneities and of the associated processes which are transposed into the regional model, improving the overall performances

  17. Regional application of process based biogeochemical model DNDC in Godavari Sub-basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Biswal

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The denitrification decomposition (DNDC model is a process-based computer simulation model of soil carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry. The DNDC model is one of the few process-based bio-geo chemical crop simulation models for which both a site-specific mode and a regional mode were developed. For regional mode, a region is presented in a typical Geographic Information System (GIS consisting of many polygons or grid cells. The database consists of spatially differentiated information of location, climate, soil properties, cropping systems, and farm management practices for each polygon or grid cell for the entire modeled region. An attempt was made to establish the methodology for the estimation of soil greenhouse gas fluxes like CH4, CO2 and N2O on a sub-basin scale.

  18. A Model for the Regionalization of Higher Education: The Role and Contribution of Tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Knight

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A notable evolution in the internationalization of higher education in the last decade has been the increasing emphasis on regional level collaboration and reform initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to examine the process of regionalization through the lens of a conceptual model and to demonstrate how different Tuning initiatives serve as useful instruments in the application of the model, and the ultimate realization of higher education regionalization. The evolving nature and meaning of region and regionalization are explored in the first section of the paper. This leads to an analysis and conceptual mapping of the many terms used to describe the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on three distinct but complementary approaches; Functional, Organizational and Political Approaches (FOPA. The three approaches are inter-related. The model is generic in concept and purpose so that it can apply to the evolving process of higher education regionalization in different parts of the world. The article examines how the initiatives and implications of the Tuning process are directly related to the model and consequently make important contributions to the regionalization of higher education in all regions of the world.

  19. Regional parametrisation of a monthly hydrological model for estimating discharges in ungaued catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavcova, K.; Szolgay, J.; Kohnova, S.; Kalas, M.

    2003-04-01

    In the case of the absence of measured runoff optimisation techniques cannot be used to estimate the parameters of monthly rainfall-runoff models. In such a case usually empirical regression methods were used for relating the model parameters to the catchment characteristics in a given region. In the paper a different method for the regional calibration of a monthly water balance model, which can be used for planning purposes, is proposed. Instead of using the regional regression approach a method is proposed, which involves the calibration of a monthly water balance model to gauged sites in the given region simultaneously. A regional objective function was constructed and for the calibration a genetic programming algorithm was employed. It is expected, that the regionally calibrated model parameters can be used in ungauged basins with similar physiographic conditions. The comparison of the performance of such a regional calibration scheme was compared with two single site calibration methods in a region of West Slovakia. The results are based on a study that aimed at computing surface water inflow into a lowland area with valuable groundwater resources. Monthly discharge time series had to be estimated in small ungauged rivers entering the study area.

  20. Considering a point-source in a regional air pollution model; Prise en compte d`une source ponctuelle dans un modele regional de pollution atmospherique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipphardt, M.

    1997-06-19

    This thesis deals with the development and validation of a point-source plume model, with the aim to refine the representation of intensive point-source emissions in regional-scale air quality models. The plume is modelled at four levels of increasing complexity, from a modified Gaussian plume model to the Freiberg and Lusis ring model. Plume elevation is determined by Netterville`s plume rise model, using turbulence and atmospheric stability parameters. A model for the effect of a fine-scale turbulence on the mean concentrations in the plume is developed and integrated in the ring model. A comparison between results with and without considering micro-mixing shows the importance of this effect in a chemically reactive plume. The plume model is integrated into the Eulerian transport/chemistry model AIRQUAL, using an interface between Airqual and the sub-model, and interactions between the two scales are described. A simulation of an air pollution episode over Paris is carried out, showing that the utilization of such a sub-scale model improves the accuracy of the air quality model

  1. High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csima, G.

    2009-09-01

    The global climate models are able to describe the climate of the Earth at a rather coarse resolution providing realistic projections only for the synoptic scale characteristics of the climate. For this reason, they are insufficient for detailed regional or local scale estimations. However, impact studies and policy makers need simulations including all the effects caused by local features. Consequently, techniques for downscaling global climate model simulations - such as regional climate modelling - are essential. The ALADIN-Climate regional climate model (developed by Météo France on the basis of the internationally developed ALADIN modelling system) was adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service a few years ago. In the framework of the CECILIA project (www.cecilia-eu.org), the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model runs at high (10 km) horizontal resolution. Therefore, it is anticipated to give more realistic climate estimation for this century than either the global models or the lower resolution regional climate models. The ALADIN-Climate model was coupled to both ERA-40 re-analysis data and the ARPEGE/OPA global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for the past - 1961-1990 - as the reference period. For the future time slices of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, the lateral boundary conditions were provided by the same global model with the use of A1B SRES scenario. The results have been validated against different observational datasets for the past, and have been compared to the results of the ARPEGE-Climat global model in order to expose the added value of the regional climate model. The ALADIN-Climate model has also been evaluated for the future to give an estimation of climate change in the Carpathian Basin.

  2. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  3. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2017-12-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  4. Perturbations of modeling and forecast of karachi coastal region seawater

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.A.; Abbas, S.; Ansari, M.R.K.; Zaffar, A.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. (author)

  5. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  6. Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...... mete- orological data input and taking in account the characteristics of different plants technologies and spatial distribution. An evalu- ation of the hourly forecasted energy production on a regional scale would be very valuable for the transmission system operators when making the long-term planning...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity....

  7. Energy Production and Regional Economic Growth in China: A More Comprehensive Analysis Using a Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaobin Liu

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available China has witnessed a fast economic growth in the recent two decades. However, the heavy energy exploitation seems to show a negative relation to regional economic growth. Thus, the issue is whether the energy production is a curse or blessing for the regional economic growth in China. The present study deploys a comprehensive approach to rigorously prove the validity of a proposed panel data model that includes a second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration and a spatial panel model. The results from the second generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration allowing for cross-sectional dependences show the differenced series are stationary and there exists a cointegration relationship among these variables for all sub-regions. The results from the spatial panel data model support the conjecture of the spatial dependent and show that there is a “resource curse” only for the Western region and Central region in China.

  8. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: a Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, M.; Hogue, T.S.; Franz, K.J.; Margulis, S.A.; Vrugt, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood

  9. Modelling gaseous dry deposition in AURAMS: a unified regional air-quality modelling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, L.; Moran, M.D.; Makar, P.A.; Brook, J.R.; Gong, S.

    2002-01-01

    An upgraded parameterization scheme for gaseous dry-deposition velocities has been developed for a new regional air-quality model with a 91-species gas-phase chemistry mechanism, of which 48 species are ''transported'' species. The well-known resistance analogy to dry deposition is adopted in the present scheme, with both O 3 and SO 2 taken as base species. Stomatal resistances are calculated for all dry-depositing species using a ''sunlit/shaded big-leaf'' canopy stomatal resistance submodel. Dry-ground, wet-ground, dry-cuticle, and wet-cuticle resistances for O 3 and SO 2 , and parameters for calculating canopy stomatal resistance and aerodynamic resistance for these two base species are given as input parameters for each of the 15 land-use categories and/or five seasonal categories considered by the scheme. Dry-ground, wet-ground, dry-cuticle, and wet-cuticle resistances for the other 29 model species for which dry deposition is considered to be a significant process are scaled to the resistances of O 3 and SO 2 based on published measurements of their dry deposition and/or their aqueous solubility and oxidizing capacity. Mesophyll resistances are treated as dependent only on chemical species. Field experimental data have then been used to evaluate the scheme's performance for O 3 and SO 2 . Example sets of modelled dry-deposition velocities have also been calculated for all 31 dry-deposited species and 15 land-use categories for different environmental conditions. This new scheme incorporates updated information on dry-deposition measurements and is able to predict deposition velocities for 31 gaseous species for different land-use types, seasons, and meteorological conditions. (author)

  10. Innovation, Decentralization, and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Batabyal, Amit; Nijkamp, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i=1,...,N, our analysis leads to five findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of interest. Second, we stipulate the form of the innovation possibilities frontier that is consistent with balanced economic growth. Third, we derive the growth rate of the ith region in the decentral...

  11. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  12. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  13. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  14. Influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions: estimations using the mesoscale model COSMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, A. V.; Rozinkina, I. A.; Kuzmina, E. V.; Nikitin, M. A.; Rivin, G. S.

    2018-01-01

    This modeling study intends to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change on regional weather conditions using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO. The central part of the East European Plain was selected as the ‘model region’ for the study. The results of numerical experiments conducted for the warm period of 2010 for the modeling domain covering almost the whole East European Plain showed that deforestation and afforestation processes within the selected model region of the area about 105 km2 can lead to significant changes in regional weather conditions. The deforestation processes have resulted in an increase of the air temperature and a reduction in the amount of precipitation. The afforestation processes can produce the opposite effects, as manifested in decreased air temperature and increased precipitation. Whereas a change of the air temperature is observed mainly inside of the model region, the changes of the precipitation are evident within the entire East European Plain, even in regions situated far away from the external boundaries of the model region.

  15. ANALISIS SEKTOR KEUANGAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL DI WILAYAH JAWA: PENDEKATAN MODEL LEVINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utami Baroroh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to analyze the influence of financial development to economic regional growth on Jawa region, using panel of province-level data on Jawa region for the period 2005-2010. The analysis method that used on this paper is panel data regression. The empirical results shown that financial asset and financial credit had a positive influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region, meanwhile third party fund had negative influence to economic regional growth on Jawa region.  The other result shown that individual effect from fixed effect model showed that DKI Jakarta, Banten and East Jawa have potential as the centre of economic growthDOI: 10.15408/etk.v11i2.1892

  16. Innovation, Decentralization and Planning in a Multi-Region Model of Schumpeterian Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2014-01-01

    We study innovation and the resulting Schumpeterian economic growth that this innovation gives rise to in a model with N heterogeneous regions. For each region i where i = 1,…,N, our analysis leads to six findings. First, we define the balanced growth path (BGP) allocations and the equilibrium of

  17. Urban Modality : Modelling and evaluating the sustainable mobility of urban areas in the city-region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gil, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis proposes a framework for evaluating the mobility potential and performance of urban areas in the city region, as an instrument to support urban development that contributes positively to regional sustainable mobility objectives. The research takes a quantitative approach, modelling and

  18. Using regional bird density distribution models to evaluate protected area networks and inform conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    John D. Alexander; Jaime L. Stephens; Sam Veloz; Leo Salas; Josée S. Rousseau; C. John Ralph; Daniel A. Sarr

    2017-01-01

    As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer-scaled evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course-scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird...

  19. Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Liu; J. Stanturf; S. Goodrick

    2010-01-01

    Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional...

  20. Regional SAR Image Segmentation Based on Fuzzy Clustering with Gamma Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X. L.; Zhao, Q. H.; Li, Y.

    2017-09-01

    Most of stochastic based fuzzy clustering algorithms are pixel-based, which can not effectively overcome the inherent speckle noise in SAR images. In order to deal with the problem, a regional SAR image segmentation algorithm based on fuzzy clustering with Gamma mixture model is proposed in this paper. First, initialize some generating points randomly on the image, the image domain is divided into many sub-regions using Voronoi tessellation technique. Each sub-region is regarded as a homogeneous area in which the pixels share the same cluster label. Then, assume the probability of the pixel to be a Gamma mixture model with the parameters respecting to the cluster which the pixel belongs to. The negative logarithm of the probability represents the dissimilarity measure between the pixel and the cluster. The regional dissimilarity measure of one sub-region is defined as the sum of the measures of pixels in the region. Furthermore, the Markov Random Field (MRF) model is extended from pixels level to Voronoi sub-regions, and then the regional objective function is established under the framework of fuzzy clustering. The optimal segmentation results can be obtained by the solution of model parameters and generating points. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm can be proved by the qualitative and quantitative analysis from the segmentation results of the simulated and real SAR images.

  1. Model Orlando regionally efficient travel management coordination center (MORE TMCC), phase II : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    The final report for the Model Orlando Regionally Efficient Travel Management Coordination Center (MORE TMCC) presents the details of : the 2-year process of the partial deployment of the original MORE TMCC design created in Phase I of this project...

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

  3. Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

    2007-01-01

    -90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...... variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind...... regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model...

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  5. Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. C. Cordeiro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Etrophication and flooding are perennial problems in agricultural watersheds of the northern Great Plains. A high proportion of annual runoff and nutrient transport occurs with snowmelt in this region. Extensive surface drainage modification, frozen soils, and frequent backwater or ice-damming impacts on flow measurement represent unique challenges to accurately modelling watershed-scale hydrological processes. A physically based, non-calibrated model created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM was parameterized to simulate hydrological processes within a low slope, clay soil, and intensively surface drained agricultural watershed. These characteristics are common to most tributaries of the Red River of the north. Analysis of the observed water level records for the study watershed (La Salle River indicates that ice cover and backwater issues at time of peak flow may impact the accuracy of both modelled and measured streamflows, highlighting the value of evaluating a non-calibrated model in this environment. Simulations best matched the streamflow record in years when peak and annual discharges were equal to or above the medians of 6.7 m3 s−1 and 1.25  × 107 m3, respectively, with an average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE of 0.76. Simulation of low-flow years (below the medians was more challenging (average NSE  <  0, with simulated discharge overestimated by 90 % on average. This result indicates the need for improved understanding of hydrological response in the watershed under drier conditions. Simulation during dry years was improved when infiltration was allowed prior to soil thaw, indicating the potential importance of preferential flow. Representation of in-channel dynamics and travel time under the flooded or ice-jam conditions should also receive attention in further model development efforts. Despite the complexities of the study watershed, simulations of flow for average to high

  6. Large regional groundwater modeling - a sensitivity study of some selected conceptual descriptions and simplifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, Lars O.; Holmen, Johan

    2010-12-01

    The primary aim of this report is: - To present a supplementary, in-depth evaluation of certain conceptual simplifications, descriptions and model uncertainties in conjunction with regional groundwater simulation, which in the first instance refer to model depth, topography, groundwater table level and boundary conditions. Implementation was based on geo-scientifically available data compilations from the Smaaland region but different conceptual assumptions have been analysed

  7. Determination of clouds in MSG data for the validation of clouds in a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Huckle, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate models (e.g. CLM) can help to asses the influence of the antropogenic climate change on the different regions of the earth. Validation of these models is very important. Satellite data are of great benefit, as data on a global scale and high temporal resolution is available. In this thesis a cloud detection and object based cloud classification for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) was developed and used to validate CLM clouds. Results show sometimes too many clouds in the CLM.

  8. Discrepancies in the Climatology and Trends of Cloud Cover in Global and Regional Climate Models for the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Calbó, Josep; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Tan, Elcin

    2017-11-01

    The present study aims at comparing total cloud cover (TCC) as simulated by regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX project with the same variable as simulated by the driving global climate models (GCM), which are part of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. The comparison is performed for the Mediterranean region, and for the 1971-2005 period, when results from the "historical" scenario can also be compared with two data sets of ground-based cloud observations. We work with 14 modeling results (resolution, 0.11° × 0.11°), which are a combination of five GCMs and five RCMs. In general, RCMs improve only very slightly the climatic estimation of TCC when compared with observations. Indeed, not all RCMs behave the same, and some indicators (monthly evolution of the relative bias) show an enhancement, while other indices (overall mean bias and annual range difference) improve only very slightly with respect to GCMs. Changes in the estimate of TCC in summer might be the most relevant value added by RCMs, as these should describe in a more proper way several mesoscale processes, which play a more relevant role in summer. Noticeably, RCMs are unable to capture the observed decadal trend in TCC. Thus, TCC simulated by RCMs is almost stable, in contradiction with observations and GCMs, which both show statistically significant decreasing trends in the Mediterranean area. This result is somewhat unsatisfactory, as if RCMs cannot reproduce past trends in TCC, their skill in projecting TCC into the future may be questioned.

  9. A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

  10. Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mai, T.; Drury, E.; Eurek, K.; Bodington, N.; Lopez, A.; Perry, A.

    2013-01-01

    This report introduces a new capacity expansion model, the Resource Planning Model (RPM), with high spatial and temporal resolution that can be used for mid- and long-term scenario planning of regional power systems. Although RPM can be adapted to any geographic region, the report describes an initial version of the model adapted for the power system in Colorado. It presents examples of scenario results from the first version of the model, including an example of a 30%-by-2020 renewable electricity penetration scenario.

  11. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  12. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  13. Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.

  14. Corruption of parameter behavior and regionalization by model and forcing data errors: A Bayesian example using the SNOW17 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minxue; Hogue, Terri S.; Franz, Kristie J.; Margulis, Steven A.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2011-07-01

    The current study evaluates the impacts of various sources of uncertainty involved in hydrologic modeling on parameter behavior and regionalization utilizing different Bayesian likelihood functions and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The developed likelihood functions differ in their underlying assumptions and treatment of error sources. We apply the developed method to a snow accumulation and ablation model (National Weather Service SNOW17) and generate parameter ensembles to predict snow water equivalent (SWE). Observational data include precipitation and air temperature forcing along with SWE measurements from 24 sites with diverse hydroclimatic characteristics. A multiple linear regression model is used to construct regionalization relationships between model parameters and site characteristics. Results indicate that model structural uncertainty has the largest influence on SNOW17 parameter behavior. Precipitation uncertainty is the second largest source of uncertainty, showing greater impact at wetter sites. Measurement uncertainty in SWE tends to have little impact on the final model parameters and resulting SWE predictions. Considering all sources of uncertainty, parameters related to air temperature and snowfall fraction exhibit the strongest correlations to site characteristics. Parameters related to the length of the melting period also show high correlation to site characteristics. Finally, model structural uncertainty and precipitation uncertainty dramatically alter parameter regionalization relationships in comparison to cases where only uncertainty in model parameters or output measurements is considered. Our results demonstrate that accurate treatment of forcing, parameter, model structural, and calibration data errors is critical for deriving robust regionalization relationships.

  15. Freshwater Ecosystem Service Flow Model To Evaluate Regional Water Security: A Case Study In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Li, S.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater service, as the most important support ecosystem service, is essential to human survival and development. Many studies have evidenced the spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and raised the concept of ecosystem service flow. However, rather few studies quantitatively characterize the freshwater service flow. This paper aims to quantify the effect of freshwater ecosystem service flow on downstream areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China over 2000, 2005 and 2010. We computed the freshwater ecosystem service provision with InVEST model. We calculated freshwater ecosystem service consumption with water quota method. We simulated the freshwater ecosystem service flow using our simplified flow model and assessed the regional water security with the improved freshwater security index. The freshwater provision service mainly depends on climatic factors that cannot be influenced by management, while the freshwater consumption service is constrained by human activities. Furthermore, the decrease of water quota for agricultural, domestic and industrial water counteracts the impact of increasing freshwater demand. The analysis of freshwater ecosystem service flow reveals that the majority area of the BTH (69.2%) is affected by upstream freshwater. If freshwater ecosystem service flow is considered, the water safety areas of the whole BTH account for 66.9%, 66.1%, 71.3%, which increase 6.4%, 6.8% and 5.7% in 2000, 2005 and 2010, respectively. These results highlight the need to understand the teleconnections between distant freshwater ecosystem service provision and local freshwater ecosystem service use. This approach therefore helps managers choose specific management and investment strategies for critical upstream freshwater provisions across different regions.

  16. Modelling Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons "online" with the GEOS-Chem Europe and Asia regional models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivatt, P.; Evans, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Poly-Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are carcinogens and so are restricted by international treaties. PAHs are mainly emitted into the atmosphere by domestic (heating and cooking), natural (forest fires burning), as well as some industrial processes (coke ovens). PAHs partition between the gas and particle phase (notably carbonaceous particles) based on their volatility. In recent years, interest has turned to the possible health effects of their oxidation products (both nitrogenated and oxygenated) as it has been suggested that these oxidation products may be even more carcinogenic than the parent PAHs. To increase our understanding of the processes controlling the regional concentrations of PAHs and their oxidation products an "online" PAH model has been developed within the GEOS-Chem framework. This provides for the representation of the coupled aerosol/gas phase chemistry of the parent PAH and its secondary oxidation products. Benzo[a]pyrene is used as an exemplar but the methodology is flexible and the approach can be used for any PAH species. Comparisons are made with observations and the sources of variability discussed.

  17. A Micro Simulated and Demand Driven Supply Chain Model To Calculate Regional Production and Consumption Matrices

    OpenAIRE

    Abed, Omar; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Gerrit; Patil, Bharat; Yasar, Ansar; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert

    2013-01-01

    Detailed data on regional goods production and consumption are traditionally the starting point to model freight transport on a nationwide scale. The conversation of those goods afterwards into various vehicle load types and the different logistics operations needed to deliver the requested goods type and quantity, follow from that starting point in the modeling process. In this paper, a demand driven microsimulated supply chain model is presented. The model shall be a first step towards calc...

  18. Coupled Atmospheric Chemistry Schemes for Modeling Regional and Global Atmospheric Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, E.; Stockwell, W. R.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric chemistry models require chemical reaction mechanisms to simulate the production of air pollution. GACM (Global Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism) is intended for use in global scale atmospheric chemistry models to provide chemical boundary conditions for regional scale simulations by models such as CMAQ. GACM includes additional chemistry for marine environments while reducing its treatment of the chemistry needed for highly polluted urban regions. This keeps GACM's size small enough to allow it to be used efficiently in global models. GACM's chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOC) is highly compatible with the VOC chemistry in RACM2 allowing a global model with GACM to provide VOC boundary conditions to a regional scale model with RACM2 with reduced error. The GACM-RACM2 system of mechanisms should yield more accurate forecasts by regional air quality models such as CMAQ. Chemical box models coupled with the regional and global atmospheric chemistry mechanisms (RACM2 & GACM) will be used to make simulations of tropospheric ozone, nitric oxides, and volatile organic compounds that are produced in regional and global domains. The simulations will focus on the Los Angeles' South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) where the Pacific Ocean meets a highly polluted urban area. These two mechanisms will be compared on the basis of simulated ozone concentrations over this marine-urban region. Simulations made with the more established RACM2 will be compared with simulations made with the newer GACM. In addition WRF-Chem will be used to simulate how RACM2 will produce regional simulations of tropospheric ozone and NOx, which can be further, analyzed for air quality impacts. Both the regional and global model in WRF-Chem will be used to predict how the concentrations of ozone and nitrogen oxides change over land and ocean. The air quality model simulation results will be applied to EPA's BenMAP-CE (Environmental Benefits Mapping & Analysis Program-Community Edition

  19. Generalized least squares and empirical Bayes estimation in regional partial duration series index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional estimation procedure that combines the index-flood concept with an empirical Bayes method for inferring regional information is introduced. The model is based on the partial duration series approach with generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances. The prior information of the model...... parameters is inferred from regional data using generalized least squares (GLS) regression. Two different Bayesian T-year event estimators are introduced: a linear estimator that requires only some moments of the prior distributions to be specified and a parametric estimator that is based on specified...... families of prior distributions. The regional method is applied to flood records from 48 New Zealand catchments. In the case of a strongly heterogeneous intersite correlation structure, the GLS procedure provides a more efficient estimate of the regional GP shape parameter as compared to the usually...

  20. Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

    2016-01-01

    Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

  1. Impact of SLA assimilation in the Sicily Channel Regional Model: model skills and mesoscale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Olita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the assimilation of MyOcean sea level anomalies along-track data on the analyses of the Sicily Channel Regional Model was studied. The numerical model has a resolution of 1/32° degrees and is capable to reproduce mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The impact of the SLA assimilation is studied by comparing a simulation (SIM, which does not assimilate data with an analysis (AN assimilating SLA along-track multi-mission data produced in the framework of MyOcean project. The quality of the analysis was evaluated by computing RMSE of the misfits between analysis background and observations (sea level before assimilation. A qualitative evaluation of the ability of the analyses to reproduce mesoscale structures is accomplished by comparing model results with ocean colour and SST satellite data, able to detect such features on the ocean surface. CTD profiles allowed to evaluate the impact of the SLA assimilation along the water column. We found a significant improvement for AN solution in terms of SLA RMSE with respect to SIM (the averaged RMSE of AN SLA misfits over 2 years is about 0.5 cm smaller than SIM. Comparison with CTD data shows a questionable improvement produced by the assimilation process in terms of vertical features: AN is better in temperature while for salinity it gets worse than SIM at the surface. This suggests that a better a-priori description of the vertical error covariances would be desirable. The qualitative comparison of simulation and analyses with synoptic satellite independent data proves that SLA assimilation allows to correctly reproduce some dynamical features (above all the circulation in the Ionian portion of the domain and mesoscale structures otherwise misplaced or neglected by SIM. Such mesoscale changes also infer that the eddy momentum fluxes (i.e. Reynolds stresses show major changes in the Ionian area. Changes in Reynolds stresses reflect a different pumping of eastward momentum from the eddy to

  2. Model Predicts a Future Pine Processionary Moth Risk in Artvin and Adjacent Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahraman İpekdal

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, climate change has been receiving a lot of attention from researchers as it is believed to be proceeding at an extraordinary rate during the last 1,300 years and many studies have attempted to document and predict its environmental effects. Eastern winter pine processionary moth (PPM, Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni (Lepidoptera, Notodontidae, an economically important pest of pines in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, distributed through almost all coastal regions within Turkey. Even though, its European sister species, T. pityocampa is known to be an aggressive invader under global warming in Europe and proved to expand its range towards northern latitudes; there is a lack of knowledge about species current and future status through Turkey, especially Artvin and adjacent regions (Eastern Black Sea Region where it has not have much effect yet. In this study, we aimed to predict PPM’s current and future distribution through Artvin and adjacent regions by using Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent software. We used 65 sampling points in conjunction with 7 climatic variables that were least inter-correlated and with greatest significant contribution to the distribution model. As the statistical tests showed that the fit of the generated model is good, we further carried on using this model for future predictions. Our results indicated that PPM would expand its range towards Artvin and adjacent regions. Even though, currently this region is not under risk of PPM invasion, models suggest that future climatic conditions might trigger PPM invasion in near future - by 2050 - 2080.

  3. Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Financial Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianmin Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on panel data covering the period from 2003 to 2012 in China’s 281 prefecture-level cities, we use superefficiency SBM model to measure regional financial efficiency and empirically test the spatial effects of fiscal decentralization on regional financial efficiency with SDM. The estimated results indicate that there exist significant spatial spillover effects among regional financial efficiency with the features of time inertia and spatial dependence. The positive promoting effect of fiscal decentralization on financial efficiency in local region depends on the symmetry between fiscal expenditure decentralization and revenue decentralization. Additionally, there exists inconsistency in the spatial effects of fiscal expenditure decentralization and revenue decentralization on financial efficiency in neighboring regions. The negative effect of fiscal revenue decentralization on financial efficiency in neighboring regions is more significant than that of fiscal expenditure decentralization.

  4. Direct and indirect effects of irrigated crop on local and regional climate over Northeast Asia with regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, S. G.; Suh, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    Irrigated crop is a typical land use and land cover change (LULCC) induced by human activities. In this study, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of irrigated crop on local and regional climate over Northeast Asia according to the intensity of East Asia monsoon. To achieve this goals, two experiments were conducted using regional climate model version 4.0 (RegCM4.0) with Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme. All model configurations, such as lateral boundary conditions, cumulus parameterization and radiation scheme, etc., were the same except for land cover. The control experiment (CTRL) was performed with mixed wood where irrigated crop region in global land cover characteristics (GLCC). The sensitivity experiment (IRCP) was performed with irrigated crop induced by human activities. The simulation period was two years, 1997 and 1998, when East Asia monsoon system was relatively weaker and stronger, respectively. Three ensemble simulations for each experiment during two years were performed according to spin-up periods (4, 8 and 12 months). Generally, the IRCP experiment shows cooling effect (-0.5 -1.0°C) in the daily maximum temperature during spring, summer, and autumn around irrigated crop regions (North China Plain and the western part of the Korean peninsula) compared to the CTRL experiment, but warming effect (+1.0 +2.0°C) in the daily minimum temperature during winter. These temperature changes are significantly caused by the direct effect of changed surface energy budget due to the changed surface properties (e.g., albedo, roughness length, soil moisture, etc.) induced by LULCC. The local climate elements (e.g., temp., pressure, winds, moist static energy, etc.) in lower atmosphere are significantly affected by these changes. In addition, the precipitation over the surrounding area was affected by the changes of atmospheric environments (e.g., wind field) through the indirect effects of LULCC. These effects of irrigated crop are more dominant

  5. The flexible engagement of monitoring processes in non-focal and focal prospective memory tasks with salient cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefer, Carmen; Cohen, Anna-Lisa; Jaudas, Alexander; Dreisbach, Gesine

    2017-09-01

    Prospective memory (PM) refers to the ability to remember to perform a delayed intention. Here, we aimed to investigate the ability to suspend such an intention and thus to confirm previous findings (Cohen, Gordon, Jaudas, Hefer, & Dreisbach, 2016) demonstrating the ability to flexibly engage in monitoring processes. In the current study, we presented a perceptually salient PM cue (bold and red) to rule out that previous findings were limited to non-salient and, thus, easy to ignore PM cues. Moreover, we used both a non-focal (Experiment 1) and a focal PM (Experiment 2) cue. In both Experiments, three groups of participants performed an Eriksen flanker task as an ongoing task with an embedded PM task (they had to remember to press the F1 key if a pre-specified cue appeared). Participants were assigned to either a control condition (performed solely the flanker task), a standard PM condition (performed the flanker task along with the PM task), or a PM delayed condition (performed the flanker task but were instructed to postpone their PM task intention). The results of Experiment 1 with the non-focal PM cue closely replicated those of Cohen et al. (2016) and confirmed that participants were able to successfully postpone the PM cue intention without additional costs even when the PM cue was a perceptually salient one. However, when the PM cue was focal (Experiment 2), it was much more difficult for participants to ignore it as evidenced by commission errors and slower latencies on PM cue trials. In sum, results showed that the focality of the PM cue plays a more crucial role in the flexibility of the monitoring process whereas the saliency of the PM cue does not. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Hierarchical Model for the Similarity Measurement of a Complex Holed-Region Entity Scene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanlong Chen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex multi-holed-region entity scenes (i.e., sets of random region with holes are common in spatial database systems, spatial query languages, and the Geographic Information System (GIS. A multi-holed-region (region with an arbitrary number of holes is an abstraction of the real world that primarily represents geographic objects that have more than one interior boundary, such as areas that contain several lakes or lakes that contain islands. When the similarity of the two complex holed-region entity scenes is measured, the number of regions in the scenes and the number of holes in the regions are usually different between the two scenes, which complicates the matching relationships of holed-regions and holes. The aim of this research is to develop several holed-region similarity metrics and propose a hierarchical model to measure comprehensively the similarity between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The procedure first divides a complex entity scene into three layers: a complex scene, a micro-spatial-scene, and a simple entity (hole. The relationships between the adjacent layers are considered to be sets of relationships, and each level of similarity measurements is nested with the adjacent one. Next, entity matching is performed from top to bottom, while the similarity results are calculated from local to global. In addition, we utilize position graphs to describe the distribution of the holed-regions and subsequently describe the directions between the holes using a feature matrix. A case study that uses the Great Lakes in North America in 1986 and 2015 as experimental data illustrates the entire similarity measurement process between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The experimental results show that the hierarchical model accounts for the relationships of the different layers in the entire complex holed-region entity scene. The model can effectively calculate the similarity of complex holed-region entity scenes, even if the

  7. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  8. Identifying the European fossil fuel plumes in the atmosphere over the Northeast Atlantic Region through isotopic observations and numerical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geels, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Hansen, A.W.

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August......Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August...

  9. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  10. New results on the regional climate change. The statistical regionalization model WETTREG; Neue Ergebnisse zu regionalen Klimaaenderungen. Das statistische Regionalisierungsmodell WETTREG

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-01-15

    The introductory chapter of the report describes the climate model WETTREG, the characterization of assumed emission scenarios and the interpretation of the climate simulations. The selected results of the regional model WETTREG cover the temperature and precipitation (summer and winter) and the results for selected regions in Germany: coastal regions at the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, northeast German lowlands, central low mountain range and Harz, low mountain range on both sides of the Rhine, Upper Rhine Graben and the Alps.

  11. The ICTP Regional System Model (RESM) to simulate the monsoon in the South Asia CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Sante, Fabio; Coppola, Erika; Farneti, Riccardo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    South Asian climate is characterized mainly by the wet and dry dipole that divides the annual cycle in two seasons: the monsoon season and the dry season. The life and the economy of those regions is very much influenced by the climate variability and the monsoon variability therefore is crucial to understand the physical mechanism associated with them. The spatial and temporal representation of the monsoons over the South Asian region is one of the main challenge of global and regional climate models principally because they fail to represent the SST (sea surface temperature) induced rainfall when forced with observed SST resulting in a poor representation of the monsoon cycle (Fu et al. 2002). The coupling with the ocean is essential to be able to simulate the correct air-sea interaction; the results are in general much improved and the monsoon patterns and the time representation (like the onset for example) are closer to the observations (Fu et al. 2002; Fu et al. 2007; Ratnam et Al. 2008; Seo et Al. 2009). Here we present a Regional Earth System Model (RESM) composed by a regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al, 2012) coupled with the regional oceanic model MITgcm (Marshall et al, 1997) and two hydrological model: ChyM (Cetemps Hydrological Model, Coppola et al, 2007) and HD model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). We simulate the Southern Asian Climate taking into account the whole hydrological cycle. Wind stress, water fluxes and heat fluxes are exchanged from the atmosphere to the ocean, SST are exchanged from ocean to the atmosphere and in order to conserve mass, the river discharge is calculated from the Hydrological model and sent to the ocean. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the impacts of local air-sea interaction in the simulation of the interannual variability, over the Indian CORDEX (Giorgi et al, 2009) domain through regionally ocean-atmosphere-river coupled and uncoupled simulations, with a focus on monsoon season

  12. Configuring a regional model for climate change simulations over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvão de Souza, Samuel; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo

    2013-04-01

    The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University is being used for regional climate simulations at the State University of Ceará in the context of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work describes configuration tests for simulations over an extended South America CORDEX domain, for a short period (1984 - 1985). The horizontal model grid comprises 182 by 172 points with 50 km spacing, ranging from 85.25W - 20.75W and 58.75S - 15.25N. The regional model was driven by data from the member 1 of the historical run from the global model HadGEM2-ES and regional model precipitation results were compared against GPCP data. The use of large-scale nudging was shown to be a very important parameter, as we tested central nudging timescales ranging from relatively strong (12h) to weak (10 days). Strong nudging was generally associated with a wet bias over the Amazon and Central Brazil, which was reduced as the nudging timescale increased. Simulations with weak nudging, in opposition, tended to produce a dry bias. The role of the width of the nudging "buffer zone" for lateral nudging was also investigated and model results suggest that a small number of points (3, in our case) can indeed be used, with no negative impacts in the model results over the area of interest within its domain We analyzed model sensitivity regarding parameters of plant fisiology (such as root depth and stomatal resistance), and the number of model soil levels, but those showed less influence in model results. In the end, we found that the best possible RAMS configuration that enable investigating climate processes and climate change over South America (especially over the Amazon) is the one that uses a 5-day large-scale nudging timescale, a 3-point "buffer zone" for lateral nudging and a 2,0m deep soil model, with 20 levels.

  13. Development of regional wheat VI-LAI models using Resourcesat-1 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 120; Issue 6. Development of regional wheat VI-LAI models using Resourcesat-1 AWiFS data ... The present study aimed at developing empirical vegetation index VI-LAI models for wheat using AWiFS optical data in four bands and in-situ measurements sampled ...

  14. ANALYSIS OF MERCURY IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES: EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL MERCURY CYCLING MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    An evaluation of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM, a steady-state fate and transport model used to simulate mercury concentrations in lakes) is presented based on its application to a series of 91 lakes in Vermont and New Hampshire. Visual and statistical analyses are pr...

  15. Modelling the impact of regional uplift and local tectonics on fluvial terrace preservation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viveen, W.; Schoorl, J.M.; Veldkamp, A.; Balen, van R.T.

    2014-01-01

    A terrace formation model (TERRACE) combined with a longitudinal river profile model (FLUVER) was used to simulate fluvial terrace formation and preservation in the northwest Iberian lower Miño River basin under the influence of three tectonic conditions; namely regional vertical uplift, local basin

  16. Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

    1998-01-01

    Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...

  17. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  18. Examples of scale interactions in local, urban, and regional air quality modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensink, C.; De Ridder, K.; Deutsch, F.; Lefebre, F.; Van de Vel, K.

    2008-09-01

    Air quality modeling can help to improve understanding of scale interactions related to meteorology, transport, emissions, formation, removal, and other processes taking place at local, urban, and regional scales. For the local scale, we used the coupling of a street canyon model with a Gaussian dispersion model to study the interactions of emissions and concentrations in urban streets and surrounding urban neighborhoods. The model combination was applied to a city quarter in Ghent, Belgium, and showed that up to 40% of the PM 2.5 concentrations inside street canyons were caused by emissions from the surrounding streets. For the urban scale, the AURORA model has been used successfully in assessments of urban air quality for entire cities or urbanized areas. It has been applied to the Ruhr area in Germany to evaluate the impact of compact or polycentric cities versus the impact of urban sprawl developments. Results for ozone and PM 10 showed that compact city structures may have more adverse effects in terms of air pollution exposure. For the regional scale, the EUROS model was used to study the urban and regional-scale interactions that are important in simulating concentrations of ozone, PM 2.5, and PM 10. It has been applied to study seasonal changes in aerosol concentrations in Flanders. High secondary aerosol concentrations were found during summer. This contribution was related to large contributions from outside the region, showing the importance of the continental scale when studying regional air quality problems.

  19. Regional Validation and Recalibration of Clinical Predictive Models for Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Ruthazer, Robin; Udelson, James E; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Zannad, Faiez; Maggioni, Aldo; Konstam, Marvin A; Kent, David M

    2017-11-18

    Heart failure clinical practice guidelines recommend applying validated clinical predictive models (CPMs) to support decision making. While CPMs are now widely available, the generalizability of heart failure CPMs is largely unknown. We identified CPMs derived in North America that predict mortality for patients with acute heart failure and validated these models in different world regions to assess performance in a contemporary international clinical trial (N=4133) of patients with acute heart failure treated with guideline-directed medical therapy. We performed independent external validations of 3 CPMs predicting in-hospital mortality, 60-day mortality, and 1-year mortality, respectively. CPM discrimination decreased in all regional validation cohorts. The median change in area under the receiver operating curve was -0.09 (range -0.05 to -0.23). Regional calibration was highly variable (90th percentile of absolute difference between smoothed observed and predicted values range 50%). Calibration remained poor after global recalibrations; however, region-specific recalibration procedures significantly improved regional performance (recalibrated 90th percentile of absolute difference range models). Acute heart failure CPM discrimination and calibration vary substantially across different world regions; region-specific (as opposed to global) recalibration techniques are needed to improve CPM calibration. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  20. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  1. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Hajek

    Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  2. Regional LLRW [low-level radioactive waste] processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beers, G.H.

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Progam has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to a hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternaties. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers will be compared for feasibility. Example 1 will assume will assume that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 will assume that a regional facility with both supercompation and incineration is specified. Both examples will include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples will be compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cylcle costs per generated unit waste. A base case will also illustrate current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons will be evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support will be identified

  3. Regional soil erosion assessment in Slovakia using modelling and farmer's participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kenderessy, Pavol; Veihe, Anita

    There has been an increasing interest by decision makers to obtain regional assessments of soil erosion risk, whereas many existing models require substantial amounts of high quality input data with high spatial resolution and they are often only validated at the plot level. Operational models...... for regional assessments should be based on simple data requirements, must consider spatial and temporal variability in hydrological and soil erosion processes, and must be applicable to a variety of regions with a minimum of calibration. This study aims to assess the applicability of the Erosion3D model...... with cereals, sunflowers and corn and is characterised by poor cultivation practices and use of fertilizers leading to land degradation. As a first step, the initial raster-based modelling of soil loss and deposition has provided acceptable and realistic values. The predicted spatial patterns of erosion...

  4. Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2016-08-16

    The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

  5. A neural mass model of interconnected regions simulates rhythm propagation observed via TMS-EEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cona, F; Zavaglia, M; Massimini, M; Rosanova, M; Ursino, M

    2011-08-01

    Knowledge of cortical rhythms represents an important aspect of modern neuroscience, to understand how the brain realizes its functions. Recent data suggest that different regions in the brain may exhibit distinct electroencephalogram (EEG) rhythms when perturbed by Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) and that these rhythms can change due to the connectivity among regions. In this context, in silico simulations may help the validation of these hypotheses that would be difficult to be verified in vivo. Neural mass models can be very useful to simulate specific aspects of electrical brain activity and, above all, to analyze and identify the overall frequency content of EEG in a cortical region of interest (ROI). In this work we implemented a model of connectivity among cortical regions to fit the impulse responses in three ROIs recorded during a series of TMS/EEG experiments performed in five subjects and using three different impulse intensities. In particular we investigated Brodmann Area (BA) 19 (occipital lobe), BA 7 (parietal lobe) and BA 6 (frontal lobe). Results show that the model can reproduce the natural rhythms of the three regions quite well, acting on a few internal parameters. Moreover, the model can explain most rhythm changes induced by stimulation of another region, and inter-subject variability, by estimating just a few long-range connectivity parameters among ROIs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Region Spherical Harmonic Magnetic Modeling from Near-Surface and Satellite-Altitude Anomlaies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyung Rae; von Frese, Ralph R. B.; Taylor, Patrick T.

    2013-01-01

    The compiled near-surface data and satellite crustal magnetic measured data are modeled with a regionally concentrated spherical harmonic presentation technique over Australia and Antarctica. Global crustal magnetic anomaly studies have used a spherical harmonic analysis to represent the Earth's magnetic crustal field. This global approach, however is best applied where the data are uniformly distributed over the entire Earth. Satellite observations generally meet this requirement, but unequally distributed data cannot be easily adapted in global modeling. Even for the satellite observations, due to the errors spread over the globe, data smoothing is inevitable in the global spherical harmonic presentations. In addition, global high-resolution modeling requires a great number of global spherical harmonic coefficients for the regional presentation of crustal magnetic anomalies, whereas a lesser number of localized spherical coefficients will satisfy. We compared methods in both global and regional approaches and for a case where the errors were propagated outside the region of interest. For observations from the upcoming Swarm constellation, the regional modeling will allow the production a lesser number of spherical coefficients that are relevant to the region of interest

  7. Patterns of Activity in A Global Model of A Solar Active Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, S. J.; Viall, N. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we investigate the global activity patterns predicted from a model active region heated by distributions of nanoflares that have a range of frequencies. What differs is the average frequency of the distributions. The activity patterns are manifested in time lag maps of narrow-band instrument channel pairs. We combine hydrodynamic and forward modeling codes with a magnetic field extrapolation to create a model active region and apply the time lag method to synthetic observations. Our aim is not to reproduce a particular set of observations in detail, but to recover some typical properties and patterns observed in active regions. Our key findings are the following. (1) Cooling dominates the time lag signature and the time lags between the channel pairs are generally consistent with observed values. (2) Shorter coronal loops in the core cool more quickly than longer loops at the periphery. (3) All channel pairs show zero time lag when the line of sight passes through coronal loop footpoints. (4) There is strong evidence that plasma must be re-energized on a timescale comparable to the cooling timescale to reproduce the observed coronal activity, but it is likely that a relatively broad spectrum of heating frequencies are operating across active regions. (5) Due to their highly dynamic nature, we find nanoflare trains produce zero time lags along entire flux tubes in our model active region that are seen between the same channel pairs in observed active regions.

  8. Measuring China’s regional energy and carbon emission efficiency with DEA models: A survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Fanyi; Su, Bin; Thomson, Elspeth; Zhou, Dequn; Zhou, P.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • China’s regional efficiency studies using data envelopment analysis are reviewed. • The main features of 46 studies published in 2006–2015 are summarized. • Six models are compared from the perspective of methodology and empirical results. • Empirical study of China’s 30 regional efficiency assessment in 1995–2012 is presented. - Abstract: The use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in China’s regional energy efficiency and carbon emission efficiency (EE&CE) assessment has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper conducted a comprehensive survey of empirical studies published in 2006–2015 on China’s regional EE&CE assessment using DEA-type models. The main features used in previous studies were identified, and then the methodological framework for deriving the EE&CE indicators as well as six widely used DEA models were introduced. These DEA models were compared and applied to measure China’s regional EE&CE in 30 provinces/regions between 1995 and 2012. The empirical study indicates that China’s regional EE&CE remained stable in the 9th Five Year Plan (1996–2000), then decreased in the 10th Five Year Plan (2000–2005), and increased a bit in the 11th Five Year Plan (2006–2010). The east region of China had the highest EE&CE while the central area had the lowest. By way of conclusion, some useful points relating to model selection are summarized from both methodological and empirical aspects.

  9. Physics based model of D-region variability related to VLF propagation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarty, S. C.

    2012-07-01

    D-region (~60-85 km) electron density profiles measured using large number of sounding rocket experiments carried out from two Indian low latitude stations show large variations with solar zenith angle, season and solar activity. Similarly the ground based multi frequency radio wave absorption technique has provided continuous data on the morphology of the hourly electron density variations. However suitable models of the D-region electron density profile variations both during quiet and disturbed solar conditions over the Indian region are lacking. The renewed interest in the study of the VLF/LF propagation anomalies taking place through perturbations in the D-region electron densities due to various geophysical phenomena requires the availability of a baseline D-region model over low latitudes. The purpose of this paper is to critically review the physical processes of D-region production and loss of free electrons, dynamical coupling due to variety of vertically propagating atmospheric waves, sudden changes brought about by the solar energetic events like CMEs and different categories of X-ray flares. Low latitude region is not likely to be affected by the PMSE or PCA type of events but the changes due to lightning induced mesospheric red sprites and LEPs need to be considered. Based on this analysis, a preliminary low latitude D-region electron density profile model development is proposed. Sample results would illustrate key requirements from such a model in terms of its effectiveness to simulate the low latitude observations of VLF/LF amplitude and phase variations using waveguide propagation models like LWPC.

  10. Density heterogeneity of the North American upper mantle from satellite gravity and a regional crustal model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herceg, Matija; Artemieva, Irina; Thybo, Hans

    2014-01-01

    and by introducing variations into the crustal structure which corresponds to the uncertainty of its resolution by highquality and low-quality seismic models. We examine the propagation of these uncertainties into determinations of lithospheric mantle density. Given a relatively small range of expected density......We present a regional model for the density structure of the North American upper mantle. The residual mantle gravity anomalies are based on gravity data derived from the GOCE geopotential models with crustal correction to the gravity field being calculated from a regional crustal model. We analyze...... how uncertainties and errors in the crustal model propagate from crustal densities to mantle residual gravity anomalies and the density model of the upper mantle. Uncertainties in the residual upper (lithospheric) mantle gravity anomalies result from several sources: (i) uncertainties in the velocity-density...

  11. [Model of social exclusion of the elderly people in Siberian Regions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maximova, S G; Noyanzina, O E; Omelchenko, D A

    2017-01-01

    An article presents results of the construction and approbation of a theoretical model of social exclusion of population of elderly age groups in Siberian regions. It bases on the results of sociological research (2016) in three Russian regions: Altai region, Trans-Baikal region and Kemerovo oblast (n=779 age of respondents from 55 (women) and 60 (men) years and older). In theory, the model lays on the following: in is determined by economic (material) deprivation, deprivation of social rights (access to social institutes and services) and deprivation of security (safe environment), deprivation of social participation, cultural (normative) disintegration and social autism; the above named components are specific for the group of elderly people, that is a priori a high risk of exclusion; social exclusion, as a condition and situation of exclusion can be estimated straightly through the manifestation of its dimensions; the model has a one-way causality, i.e. the manifestation of one of its dimensions can lead to the high manifestation of the social exclusion. Basing on dimensions, operationalized in questionnaire, we calculated as an index of components of the social exclusion, as the total social exclusion index for elderly people including its regional correlations. By the results of a posteriori testing of the suggested model, we proved a good correlation between theoretical and empirical models of social exclusion of elderly people.

  12. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  13. Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Soonae; Lee, Youngmi

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO 2 and NO 2 ; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant. - Highlights: → Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses are tested for air pollution in Korea. → A relationship of economic growth and pollution is analyzed at the regional level. → No-dominant EKC is found for SO 2 and NO 2 , but a dominant U-shaped curve for CO. → Environmental Policy should consider different features of each pollutant and region.

  14. Regional climate model experiments to investigate the Asian monsoon in the Late Miocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tang

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The Late Miocene (11.6–5.3 Ma is a crucial period in the history of the Asian monsoon. Significant changes in the Asian climate regime have been documented for this period, which saw the formation of the modern Asian monsoon system. However, the spatiotemporal structure of these changes is still ambiguous, and the associated mechanisms are debated. Here, we present a simulation of the average state of the Asian monsoon climate for the Tortonian (11–7 Ma using the regional climate model CCLM3.2. We employ relatively high spatial resolution (1° × 1° and adapt the physical boundary conditions such as topography, land-sea distribution and vegetation in the regional model to represent the Late Miocene. As climatological forcing, the output of a Tortonian run with a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is used. Our regional Tortonian run shows a stronger-than-present East Asian winter monsoon wind as a result of the enhanced mid-latitude westerly wind of our global forcing and the lowered present-day northern Tibetan Plateau in the regional model. The summer monsoon circulation is generally weakened in our regional Tortonian run compared to today. However, the changes of summer monsoon precipitation exhibit major regional differences. Precipitation decreases in northern China and northern India, but increases in southern China, the western coast and the southern tip of India. This can be attributed to the changes in both the regional topography (e.g. the lower northern Tibetan Plateau and the global climate conditions (e.g. the higher sea surface temperature. The spread of dry summer conditions over northern China and northern Pakistan in our Tortonian run further implies that the monsoonal climate may not have been fully established in these regions in the Tortonian. Compared with the global model, the high resolution regional model highlights the spatial differences of the Asian monsoon climate in the Tortonian, and better

  15. Preliminary evaluation of a new developed regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model system for Irish Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shiyu; Lynch, Peter; McGrath, Ray

    2010-05-01

    In recent years, uncertainties in climate model projections have become of great interest because a wide range of future projection have become available from a combination of various emission scenarios and different climate models. The quality of the future projections of climate change depend critically on the ability of the Global and Regional Climate Models to reproduce the present-day climate. Due to the coarse resolution of global models, high-resolution regional studies are essential for impact studies and adaptation strategies in Ireland. Particularly, the representation of extreme events requires us to use high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Moreover, the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean has to be included in RCMs in a more sophisticated way; this is especially important for accurately reproducing the climate over Ireland, which is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and Irish Sea. The RCA_NEMO model, an interactive flux coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model was developed in this study. This model, which combines two well-known components, the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA) and the ocean model NEMO, together with the OASIS3 coupler, is fully parallel and can introduce the interaction between the atmosphere and ocean into climate simulations in a sophisticated manner. The model has been demonstrated to run long simulations (1960-1990) without flux correction. The monthly mean value between 1961 and 1990 is fully evaluated against analysis/observations. Mean sea level pressure, which is strongly associated with cyclone activity, has been reproduced well by both models, except in April. The atmosphere-only run has a weaker pressure gradient over Ireland. Comparing the output with the UKCIP observational data, the coupled model more accurately represents the climate of Ireland. Not only are the basic characteristics reproduced by the coupled run; the wet bias in the midlands and the dry bias in the southwest of Ireland are

  16. A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

    2018-03-01

    Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

  17. Regions-of-interest extraction from remote sensing imageries using visual attention modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Hui Li; Fan, Jiayuan; Toomik, Maria; Lu, Shijian

    2016-10-01

    Processing and analysing large volume of remote sensing data is both labour intensive and time consuming. Therefore, there is a need to effectively and efficiently identify meaningful regions in these remote sensing data for timely resource management. In this paper, we propose a visual attention model for identifying regions-of-interest in remote sensing data. The proposed model incorporates both bottom-up spatial saliency and top-down objectness, by fusing a co-occurrence histogram saliency model with the BING objectness model. The co-occurrence histogram saliency model is constructed by first building a 2D co-occurrence histogram that captures co-occurrence and occurrence of image intensities, and then using the 2D co-occurrence histogram to model local and global saliency. On the other hand, the BING objectness model is constructed by resizing image intensities in variable-sized windows to 8x8 windows, and then using the norms of the gradients in the 8x8 windows as features to train a generic objectness measure. Our experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively and efficiently identify regions-of-interest in remote sensing data. The proposed model may be applied in various remote sensing applications such as anomaly detection, urban area detection, target detection, or land use classification.

  18. Arctide2017, a high-resolution regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cancet, M.; Andersen, O. B.; Lyard, F.

    2018-01-01

    The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modelling. The accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimeters in the Polar Regions, which has a large impact on the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights and the altimetry-derived products. NOVELTIS, DTU Space...... and LEGOS have developed Arctide2017, a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean, in the framework of an extension of the CryoSat Plus for Ocean (CP4O) ESA STSE (Support to Science Element) project. In particular, this atlas benefits from the assimilation of the most complete satellite...... altimetry dataset ever used in this region, including Envisat data up to 82°N and CryoSat-2 data between 82°N and 88°N. The combination of these satellite altimetry missions gives the best possible coverage of altimetry-derived tidal constituents. The available tide gauge data were also used for data...

  19. Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Vladimirovna Vasil'eva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

  20. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Covariances for neutron cross sections calculated using a regional model based on local-model fits to experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.; Guenther, P.T.

    1983-11-01

    We suggest a procedure for estimating uncertainties in neutron cross sections calculated with a nuclear model descriptive of a specific mass region. It applies standard error propagation techniques, using a model-parameter covariance matrix. Generally, available codes do not generate covariance information in conjunction with their fitting algorithms. Therefore, we resort to estimating a relative covariance matrix a posteriori from a statistical examination of the scatter of elemental parameter values about the regional representation. We numerically demonstrate our method by considering an optical-statistical model analysis of a body of total and elastic scattering data for the light fission-fragment mass region. In this example, strong uncertainty correlations emerge and they conspire to reduce estimated errors to some 50% of those obtained from a naive uncorrelated summation in quadrature. 37 references

  2. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  3. Heavy Precipitation in Regional Climate Models: Does it Pay to Play Analogue?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    Regional models in general simulate the extreme precipitation statistics better than general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of more realistic representation of topography and better ability to resolve mesoscale processes, land surface-atmosphere interaction, and dynamics and vertical motion. Through an analogue method that employs the resolved large-scale atmospheric conditions to detect the occurrence of heavy precipitation event, multi-GCM median of late 20th century heavy precipitation frequency is more consistent with observation and inter-model variance is smaller as compared to the corresponding results using model-simulated precipitation. In this study, we explore whether the analogue method, when used with the higher-resolution regional climate model simulations (yet driven by coarser weather/climate information at the larger scale) from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), can result in further improvement in detecting heavy precipitation events. Combinations of different atmospheric variables for circulation features (geopotential height and wind shear), moisture plumes (surface specific humidity and column precipitable water), and convective instability (convective available potential energy, CAPE) are examined to construct the analogue schemes for the summer (JJA) of the Midwestern United States (MWST), which is among the weaker regions in model performance for simulated summer U.S. precipitation. We employ gridded precipitation-gauge observations and global atmospheric reanalysis to calibrate and validate the analogue method to be implemented at the spatial resolution comparable to that of NARCCAP models (approximately 50 km). We also explore the effect of lateral boundary conditions on the performance of analogue schemes by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in summer heavy precipitation frequency are further assessed

  4. Do regional weather models contribute to better wind power forecasts? A few Norwegian case studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bremnes, John Bjørnar; Giebel, Gregor

    2017-01-01

    In most operational wind power forecasting systems statistical methods are applied to map wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models into wind power forecasts. NWP models are complex mathematical models of the atmosphere that divide the earth’s surface into a grid. The spatial...... resolution of this grid determines how accurate meteorological processes can be modeled and thereby also limits forecast quality. In this study, two global and four regional operational NWP models with spatial horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 to 32 km were applied to make wind power forecasts up to 66...

  5. The kinematic evolution of the Serra Central Salient, Eastern Brazil: A Neoproterozoic progressive arc in northern Espinhaço fold-thrust belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bersan, Samuel Moreira; Danderfer, André; Lagoeiro, Leonardo; Costa, Alice Fernanda de Oliveira

    2017-12-01

    Convex-to-the-foreland map-view curves are common features in fold-thrust belts around cratonic areas. These features are easily identifiable in belts composed of supracrustal rocks but have been rarely described in rocks from relatively deeper crustal levels where plastic deformation mechanisms stand out. Several local salients have been described in Neoproterozoic marginal fold-thrust belts around the São Francisco craton. In the northern part of the Espinhaço fold-thrust belt, which borders the eastern portion of the São Francisco craton, both Archean-Paleoproterozoic basement rocks and Proterozoic cover rocks are involved in the so-called Serra Central salient. A combination of conventional structural analysis and microstructural and paleostress studies were conducted to characterize the kinematic and the overall architecture and processes involved in the generation of this salient. The results allowed us to determine that the deformation along the Serra Central salient occur under low-grade metamorphic conditions and was related to a gently oblique convergence with westward mass transport that developed in a confined flow, controlled by two transverse bounding shear zones. We propose that the Serra Central salient nucleates as a basin-controlled primary arc that evolves to a progressive arc with secondary vertical axis rotation. This secondary rotation, well-illustrated by the presence of two almost orthogonal families of folds, was dominantly controlled by buttress effect exert by a basement high located in the foreland of the Serra Central salient.

  6. The role of tourism public-private partnerships in regional development: a conceptual model proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário Franco

    Full Text Available Tourism is characterized as being a sector that stands out as one of the business activities with the greatest potential for worldwide expansion, and as an engine for economic growth. If at the national level, the appeal of tourism is significant, on the local level this sector presents itself as an essential tool in regional development, as a means to avoid regional desertification and stagnation, stimulating the potential of more undeveloped regions. In such a competitive sector as tourism, companies should develop synergies and achieve competitive advantage. In this context, public-private partnerships play an important role in regional development. The aim of this paper is to present a theoretical context that combines different concepts and elements to explain and understand the public-private partnership phenomenon in tourism. A conceptual model of the role of public-private partnerships will be proposed in order to contribute to successful regional development.

  7. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Krol, M.C.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-01-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise,

  8. Characterizing moisture sources over Mediterranean Basin in a Regional Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batibeniz, F.; Ashfaq, M.; Turuncoglu, U. U.; Onol, B.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate precipitation dynamics over the Mediterranean region using Reanalysis data and a coupled Regional Earth System Model (RegESM). The RegESM model is run in coupled (RegCM4 coupled with ROMS) and uncoupled mode (atmosphere -land only) for 1979-2013 period using Era-Interim Reanalysis. RegESM incorporates atmosphere, ocean, river routing and wave components and thereby is better capable to improve the understanding of coupled climate system processes. We compare two model configurations to investigate the role of air sea interaction in the simulation of key processes that govern precipitation variability over the study region. Seasonal trend analyses have been performed to understand the changes in precipitation tendencies over the 35 years of the simulation period and observations. Additionally, two moisture flux analyses (Eulerian and Lagrangian) have been implemented to understand the role of various oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources in seasonal precipitation distribution and long-term trends over the Mediterranean basin. In Eulerian approach, we use 7 different terrestrial regions to identify sources and sinks using the inflows and outflows from their boundaries. In Lagrangian approach, we divide the whole region in 9 parts to backtrack moisture coming from each region to the core Mediterranean region at intra-seasonal time-scales. Variation in the moisture contribution from each source region is investigated to quantify its role in the observed precipitation variability particularly during the extreme wet and dry years. Overall, our results highlight the importance of air-sea interaction in precipitation distribution at intra-seasonal to inter-decadal timescales over Mediterranean region as coupled RegESM configuration is able to improve of many limitations that are found in the standalone configuration.

  9. Actuarial modeling of cost of voluntary pension insurance of the population of the region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailova Svetlana Sergeevna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In article approach to determination of net value of the contract of pension insurance for the man's and female population, considering regional demographic features is offered. Results of actuarial calculation of the size pure net - rates of individual pension insurance are presented, "sensitivity" of cost of insurance is defined by methods of statistical modeling to key parameters of a pension product for the region population.

  10. Critical behaviour of the Ginzburg-Landau model in the type II region

    CERN Document Server

    Kajantie, K.; Neuhaus, T.; Rajantie, A.; Rummukainen, K.

    2002-01-01

    We study the critical behaviour of the three-dimensional U(1) gauge+Higgs theory (Ginzburg-Landau model) at large scalar self-coupling \\lambda (``type II region'') by measuring various correlation lengths as well as the Abrikosov-Nielsen-Olesen vortex tension. We identify different scaling regions as the transition is approached from below, and carry out detailed comparisons with the criticality of the 3d O(2) symmetric scalar theory.

  11. Methane in the Amazon: A forward and inverse regional modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, V.; Gerbig, C.; Koch, F. T.; Karstens, U.; Chen, H.; Bela, M. M.; Longo, K.; Freitas, S.; Bergamaschi, P. M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Prigent, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon region is an important player in the global methane (CH4) cycle, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2. Different major CH4 sources in the Amazon region such as anaerobic microbial production in wetlands and biomass burning will be affected by changing climate. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the processes is required. Within the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) project, airborne measurements of greenhouse gases, associated tracers and aerosols were taken during the end of the dry season in November 2008 as well as during the end of the wet season in May 2009. These aircraft measurements and additional ground based measurements provide a test bed for high resolution transport simulation of CH4. Here we present a comparison of WRF-Chem passive tracer simulations of CH4 to airborne CH4 observations obtained from the BARCA campaigns in November 2008 and May 2009 using the newly established WRF Greenhouse Gas Model (WRF-GHG) in combination with two different process-based bottom-up models for the calculation of CH4 emissions from anaerobic microbial production in wetlands (Kaplan and Walter-Heimann) and three different wetland inundation maps (Kaplan, JERS-1SAR, Prigent). The comparison illustrates the importance of a wetland inundation map with inundated area changing in time, and the quality of the representation of atmospheric transport in regional models in tropical regions. In addition, we demonstrate a comparison of WRF-GHG CH4 simulations to TT34 tower observations (35 m above ground; located 60 km north-west of Manaus, Brazil) for August 2009, evaluating the performance of WRF-GHG in representing CH4 observations in the planetary boundary layer in tropical regions. Finally, we present preliminary results of a regional inversion using the TM3-STILT model together with the above mentioned observations for the estimation of the CH4 budget of the Amazon region.

  12. Aerosol indirect effects on summer precipitation in a regional climate model for the Euro-Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

    2018-03-01

    Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semi-direct effects as well as through their effects on cloud microphysics (indirect effects). The present study investigates the indirect effects of aerosols on summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is located at the crossroads of air masses carrying both natural and anthropogenic aerosols. While it is difficult to disentangle the indirect effects of aerosols from the direct and semi-direct effects in reality, a numerical sensitivity experiment is carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which allows us to isolate indirect effects, all other effects being equal. The Mediterranean hydrological cycle has often been studied using regional climate model (RCM) simulations with parameterized convection, which is the approach we adopt in the present study. For this purpose, the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme is used in a pair of simulations run at 50 km resolution with extremely high and low aerosol concentrations. An additional pair of simulations has been performed at a convection-permitting resolution (3.3 km) to examine these effects without the use of parameterized convection. While the reduced radiative flux due to the direct effects of the aerosols is already known to reduce precipitation amounts, there is still no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the aerosol indirect forcing effect on precipitation, with various processes competing with each other. Although some processes tend to enhance precipitation amounts, some others tend to reduce them. In these simulations, increased aerosol loads lead to weaker precipitation in the parameterized (low-resolution) configuration. The fact that a similar result is obtained for a selected area in the convection-permitting (high-resolution) configuration allows for physical interpretations. By examining the key variables in the model outputs, we propose a causal chain that links the aerosol

  13. Modeling species distributions from heterogeneous data for the biogeographic regionalization of the European bryophyte flora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Rubén G; Vanderpoorten, Alain; Muñoz, Jesús; Laenen, Benjamin; Désamoré, Aurélie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1) regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2) their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran's I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial importance of developing

  14. Modeling species distributions from heterogeneous data for the biogeographic regionalization of the European bryophyte flora.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén G Mateo

    Full Text Available The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1 regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2 their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran's I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial

  15. Improvement of Measurement and Evaluation of Regional Authorities Activity: Model and Statistical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrova Elena Аleksandrovna

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Formation of strategy of long-term social and economic development is a basis for effective functioning of executive authorities and the assessment of its efficiency in general. Modern theories of assessment of public administration productivity are guided by the process approach when it is expedient to carry out the formation of business processes of regional executive authorities according to strategic indicators of territorial development. In this regard, there is a problem of modeling of interrelation of indicators of social and economic development of the region and quantitative indices of results of business processes of executive authorities. At the first stage of modeling, two main directions of strategic development, namely innovative and investment activity of regional economic systems are considered. In this regard, the work presents the results of modeling the interrelation between the indicators of regional social and economic development and innovative and investment activity. Therefore, for carrying out the analysis, the social and economic system of the region is presented in space of the main indicators of social and economic development of the territory and indicators of innovative and investment activity. The analysis is made on values of the indicators calculated for regions of the Russian Federation during 2000, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. It was revealed that strategic indicators of innovative and investment activity have the most significant impact on key signs of social and economic development.

  16. Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Jason T.; Brown, Larry R.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Waite, Ian R.; Ode, Peter R; Mazor, Raphael D; Schiff, Kenneth C

    2015-01-01

    We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n = 1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n ≤ 75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect

  17. A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.; Duchin, F.; Melillo, J. M.; Wollheim, W. M.; Gonzalez, J.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Rosenzweig, B.; Yang, P.; Lengyel, F.; Fekete, B. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Northeast region (NE) exhibits many of the changes taking place across the Nation's landscapes and watersheds, yet also provides a unique lens through which to assess options for managing large-scale natural resource systems. We report here on a regional NSF-funded Earth System Modeling (EaSM) project, which has assembled an interdisciplinary research team from academia and government with expertise in physics, biogeochemistry, engineering, energy, economics, and policy engagement. The team is simultaneously studying the evolution of regional human-environment systems and seeking to improve the translation of research findings to the planning community. We hypothesize that there are regionally-significant consequences of human decisions on environmental systems of the NE, expressed through the action of both natural and engineered human systems that dictate the region's biogeophysical state, ecosystem services, energy and economic output. Our central goal is: To build a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) that improves understanding and capacity to forecast the implications of planning decisions on the region's environment, ecosystem services, energy systems and economy through the 21st century. We are using scenario experiments to test our hypothesis and to make forecasts about the future. We see the proposed research as a major step forward in developing a capacity to diagnose and understand the state of large, interacting human-natural systems. Major foci include: the application of meso-scale atmospheric physics models to drive terrestrial-aquatic ecosystem models; a linked ecosystem services accounting tool; geospatial modeling of anthropogenic GHG emissions and biotic source/sinks at improved space/time resolutions; and meso-economic input-output model to evaluate the impacts of ecosystem services constraints on subregional economies. The presentation will report on recent progress across three strategic planning fronts, which are important to

  18. Field Investigation and Modeling Development for Hydrological and Carbon Cycles in Southwest Karst Region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X. B.

    2017-12-01

    It is required to understanding water cycle and carbon cycle processes for water resource management and pollution prevention and global warming influence in southwest karst region of China. Lijiang river basin is selected as our study region. Interdisciplinary field and laboratory experiments with various technologies are conducted to characterize the karst aquifers in detail. Key processes in the karst water cycle and carbon cycle are determined. Based on the MODFLOW-CFP model, new watershed flow and carbon cycle models are developed coupled subsurface and surface water flow models. Our study focus on the karst springshed in Mao village, the mechanisms coupling carbon cycle and water cycle are explored. This study provides basic theory and simulation method for water resource management and groundwater pollution prevention in China karst region.

  19. Generalized Residual Terrain Model and Its Application in Regional Gravity Field Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WU Yihao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied the so-called non-harmonic problem in residual terrain model (RTM and compared the RTM corrections based on prisms and tesseroids. Moreover, we proposed the generalized RTM based on tesseroids, together with which the regional gravity field was modeled based on Poisson wavelets basis function by using heterogeneous gravity data sets. The results show that the RTM correction based on prism integral has a poor performance in mountainous regions, which may introduce errors with the magnitude of several mGal. Thus, we suggest using RTM based on tesseroids, which lead to a better approximation of the topography. Compared to original residual terrain model,the generalized one leads a better approximation of the regional gravity filed at the high-frequency part caused by local topographical variation.

  20. An analysis model for regional low-level radioactive waste management alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loughead, J.S.C.; Beers, G.H.

    1986-01-01

    The Department of Energy Low-Level Waste Management Program has developed an interactive computer model and linked database to be used by state and regional policy makers to evaluate various waste management system configurations and technologies. The computer program resides on an IBM 4341 mainframe host, and was developed and is supported by EG and G Idaho, Inc. Both user access and terminal workstations are provided to regional and state representatives as part of the Low-Level Waste Management Program Information Management System. The analysis model was developed to provide decision support information about regional waste management options for low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) processing, packaging, transportation, storage, and disposal. This model concept represents an extension of several independent analysis programs that were developed as stand-alone planning aids by the Program

  1. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  2. Modeling and validation of on-road CO2 emissions inventories at the urban regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brondfield, Max N.; Hutyra, Lucy R.; Gately, Conor K.; Raciti, Steve M.; Peterson, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    On-road emissions are a major contributor to rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, we applied a downscaling methodology based on commonly available spatial parameters to model on-road CO 2 emissions at the 1 × 1 km scale for the Boston, MA region and tested our approach with surface-level CO 2 observations. Using two previously constructed emissions inventories with differing spatial patterns and underlying data sources, we developed regression models based on impervious surface area and volume-weighted road density that could be scaled to any resolution. We found that the models accurately reflected the inventories at their original scales (R 2 = 0.63 for both models) and exhibited a strong relationship with observed CO 2 mixing ratios when downscaled across the region. Moreover, the improved spatial agreement of the models over the original inventories confirmed that either product represents a viable basis for downscaling in other metropolitan regions, even with limited data. - Highlights: ► We model two on-road CO 2 emissions inventories using common spatial parameters. ► Independent CO 2 observations are used to validate the emissions models. ► The downscaled emissions models capture the urban spatial heterogeneity of Boston. ► Emissions estimates show a strong non-linear relationship with observed CO 2 . ► Our study is repeatable, even in areas with limited data. - This work presents a new, reproducible methodology for downscaling and validating on-road CO 2 emissions estimates.

  3. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  4. A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

    2018-02-01

    Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

  5. Forewarning Model of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Combination Weights and Entropy Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongxing Zhou

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available As a new development form for evaluating the regional water resources carrying capacity, forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities is an important adjustment and control measure for regional water security management. Up to now, most research on this issue have been qualitative analyses, with a lack of quantitative research. For this reason, an index system for forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities and grade standards, has been established in Anhui Province, China, in this paper. Subjective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm, while objective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated by using a projection pursuit method, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm. These two kinds of weights can be combined into combination weights of forewarning indices, by using the minimum relative information entropy principle. Furthermore, a forewarning model of regional water resources carrying capacity, based on entropy combination weight, is put forward. The model can fully integrate subjective and objective information in the process of forewarning. The results show that the calculation results of the model are reasonable and the method has high adaptability. Therefore, this model is worth studying and popularizing.

  6. Development of a target-site based regional frequency model using historical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Bardet, Lise; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Rebour, Vincent

    2016-04-01

    Nuclear power facilities in France were designed to withstand extreme environmental conditions with a very low probability of failure. Nevertheless, some exceptional surges considered as outliers are not properly addressed by classical frequency analysis models. If available data at the site of interest (target-site) is sufficiently complete on a long period and not characterized by the presence of an outlier, at-site frequency analysis can be used to estimate quantiles with acceptable uncertainties. Otherwise, regional and historical information (HI) may be used to mitigate the lack of data and the influence of the outlier by increasing its representativeness in the sample. several models have been proposed over the last years for regional extreme surges frequency analysis in France to take into account these outliers in the frequency analysis. However, these models do not give a specific weight to the target site and cannot take into account HI. The objective of the present work is to develop a regional frequency model (RFM) centered on a target-site and using HI. The neighborhood between sites is measured by a degree of physical and statistical dependence between observations (with a prior confidence level). Unlike existing models, the obtained region around the target site (and constituting the neighboring sites) is sliding from a target-site to another. In other words, the developed model assigns a region for each target site. The idea behind the construction of a frequency model favoring target sites and the principle of moving regions around these target-sites is the original key point of the developed model. A related issue regards the estimation of missed and/or ungauged surges at target-sites from those of gauged potential neighboring sites, a multiple linear regression (MLR) is used and it can be extended to other reconstitutions models. MLR analysis can be considered conclusive only if available observations at neighboring sites are informative enough

  7. Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

    2017-05-01

    We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of

  8. Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

    2016-01-15

    The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  10. Application of Imprecise Decision Modeling for Regional Development Policies in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novita Erlinda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Regional Development encompasses many aspect of economic, social, and environmental attributes. In the context of developing country, the decision to fulfill these attributes are often hindered by lack of clear development scenarios and constraints. This study is an attempt to capture the complexity of decision makers for regional development scenarios using imprecise decision modeling (IDM by incorporating imprecise information and uncertainties. A series of social, economic and environmental criteria based on agreement from multi stakeholders dialogues were developed along with four policy development scenarios. Results from such a modeling provides variety of decision alternatives based on probabilities and risk assessment associated with achieving policy objectives.

  11. Inverse modeling of the terrestrial carbon flux in China with flux covariance among inverted regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Jiang, F.; Chen, J. M.; Ju, W.; Wang, H.

    2011-12-01

    Quantitative understanding of the role of ocean and terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle, their response and feedback to climate change is required for the future projection of the global climate. China has the largest amount of anthropogenic CO2 emission, diverse terrestrial ecosystems and an unprecedented rate of urbanization. Thus information on spatial and temporal distributions of the terrestrial carbon flux in China is of great importance in understanding the global carbon cycle. We developed a nested inversion with focus in China. Based on Transcom 22 regions for the globe, we divide China and its neighboring countries into 17 regions, making 39 regions in total for the globe. A Bayesian synthesis inversion is made to estimate the terrestrial carbon flux based on GlobalView CO2 data. In the inversion, GEOS-Chem is used as the transport model to develop the transport matrix. A terrestrial ecosystem model named BEPS is used to produce the prior surface flux to constrain the inversion. However, the sparseness of available observation stations in Asia poses a challenge to the inversion for the 17 small regions. To obtain additional constraint on the inversion, a prior flux covariance matrix is constructed using the BEPS model through analyzing the correlation in the net carbon flux among regions under variable climate conditions. The use of the covariance among different regions in the inversion effectively extends the information content of CO2 observations to more regions. The carbon flux over the 39 land and ocean regions are inverted for the period from 2004 to 2009. In order to investigate the impact of introducing the covariance matrix with non-zero off-diagonal values to the inversion, the inverted terrestrial carbon flux over China is evaluated against ChinaFlux eddy-covariance observations after applying an upscaling methodology.

  12. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  13. Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

    2018-04-01

    Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also

  14. Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

    2014-12-01

    Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

  15. Uncertainty Source of Modeled Ecosystem Productivity in East Asian Monsoon Region: A Traceability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, E.; Xia, J.; Huang, K.; Ito, A.; Arain, M. A.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Tian, H.; Mao, J.; Fisher, J.; Schaefer, K. M.; Huang, M.; Peng, S.; Wang, W.

    2017-12-01

    East Asian monsoon region, benefits from sufficient water-heat availability and increasing nitrogen deposition, represents significantly higher net ecosystem productivity than the same latitudes of Europe-Africa and North America. A better understanding of major contributions to the uncertainties of terrestrial carbon cycle in this region is greatly important for evaluating the global carbon balance. This study analyzed the key carbon processes and parameters derived from a series of terrestrial biosphere models. A wide range of inter-model disagreement on GPP was found in China's subtropical regions. Then, this large difference was traced to a few traceable components included in terrestrial carbon cycle. The increase in ensemble mean GPP over 1901-2010 was predominantly resulted from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, while high frequent land-use change over this region showed a slightly negative effect on GPP. However, inter-model differences of GPP were mainly attributed to the baseline simulations without changes in external forcing. According to the variance decomposition, the large spread in simulated GPP was well explained by the differences in leaf area index (LAI) and specific leaf area (SLA) among models. In addition, the underlying errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model and introduce some additional errors to the simulation of NPP and biomass. By comparing the simulations with satellite-derived, data-oriented and observation-based datasets, we further found that GPP, vegetation carbon turn-over time, aboveground biomass, LAI and SLA were all overestimated in most of the models while biomass distribution in leaves was significantly underestimated. The results of this study indicate that model performance on ecosystem productivity in East Asian monsoon region can be improved by a more realistic representation of leaf functional traits.

  16. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2013-04-01

    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation δ2H and δ18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  17. Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land

  18. Modeling study on the factors affecting regional air quality during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, C.; Carmichael, G. R.; Adhikary, B.; D'Allura, A.; Cheng, Y.; Tang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Streets, D. G.; Pierce, R.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Flowers, B. A.; Dubey, M. K.; Krotkov, N. A.; Pickering, K. E.; Ramanathan, V.

    2009-12-01

    Chinese government took measures to control emissions of pollutants before and during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games in order to get better air quality for the event. A 3-dimensional regional chemical transport model, the University of Iowa’s Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM), is used to evaluate the effects of emission reductions on regional air quality by this event. The emission inventories with and without the consideration of emission reductions are used in case studies. Impacts of the emissions from different regions and sectors on Beijing and regional air quality are discussed in this study. Meteorological factor on the improvement of air quality during this event is also assessed by using the meteorological conditions from different years to drive the model. Model performance is evaluated by comparing the modeled trace gases and aerosols with the surface measurements from Beijing, the field observations from the Cheju ABC Plume-Asian Monsoon Experiment (CAPMEX) during this summer, and satellite data from NASA.

  19. GIS Data Modeling of a Regional Geological Structure by Integrating Geometric and Semantic Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HE Handong

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Using GIS, data models of geology via geometric descriptions and expressions are being developed. However, the role played by these data models in terms of the description and expression of geological structure phenomenon is limited. To improve the semantic information in geological GIS data models, this study adopts an object-oriented method that describes and expresses the geometric and semantic features of the geological structure phenomenon using geological objects and designs a data model of regional geological structures by integrating geometry and semantics. Moreover, the study designs a semantic "vocabulary-explanation-graph" method for describing the geological phenomenon of structures. Based on the semantic features of regional geological structures and a linear classification method, it divides the regional geological structure phenomenon into 3 divisions, 10 groups, 33 classes and defines the element set and element class. Moreover, it builds the basic geometric network for geological elements based on the geometric and semantic relations among geological objects. Using the ArcGIS Diagrammer Geodatabase, it considers the regional geological structure of the Ning-Zhen Mountains to verify the data model, and the results indicate a high practicability.

  20. Sensitivity experiments of a regional climate model to the different convective schemes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armand J, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, version 4 of the regional climate model (RegCM4) is used to perform 6 years simulation including one year for spin-up (from January 2001 to December 2006) over Central Africa using four convective schemes: The Emmanuel scheme (MIT), the Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schulbert closure assumption (GAS), the Grell scheme with Fritsch-Chappell closure assumption (GFC) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme (Kuo). We have investigated the ability of the model to simulate precipitation, surface temperature, wind and aerosols optical depth. Emphasis in the model results were made in December-January-February (DJF) and July-August-September (JAS) periods. Two subregions have been identified for more specific analysis namely: zone 1 which corresponds to the sahel region mainly classified as desert and steppe and zone 2 which is a region spanning the tropical rain forest and is characterised by a bimodal rain regime. We found that regardless of periods or simulated parameters, MIT scheme generally has a tendency to overestimate. The GAS scheme is more suitable in simulating the aforementioned parameters, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitations everywhere over the study domain irrespective of the season. In JAS, model results are similar in the representation of regional wind circulation. Apart from the MIT scheme, all the convective schemes give the same trends in aerosols optical depth simulations. Additional experiment reveals that the use of BATS instead of Zeng scheme to calculate ocean flux appears to improve the quality of the model simulations.

  1. Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2017-12-11

    In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2  = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.

  2. Modeling wave trains in coastal regions; Modelagem de trens de ondas em regioes costeiras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luz, Ana M.S.; Nachbin, A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica Pura e Aplicada (IMPA)

    2008-07-01

    Our goal is to present a model that captures how the sea bottom topography or submarine structures can influence the evolution of water wave trains over a varying topography at intermediate depth. To obtain such a model, we consider Euler equations for inviscid fluids and we perform the asymptotic simplification of the nonlinear potential theory equations together with the method of multiple scales to get a reduced model. Such a model is called reduced because it simplifies nonlinear potential theory from two spatial dimensions to one dimension along the free boundary. We consider a varying topography at the bottom and/or the presence of submarine structures together with a free boundary at the surface of the sea. For modeling such a geometry we transform our Cartesian system into curvilinear coordinates through a conformal mapping that maps the original physical domain into a simpler domain (a strip). This modeling strategy allows us to capture and understand the dynamics of water waves in regions where offshore exploration activity already exists or not. Through an efficient model we can get important information regarding the dynamics of waves in coastal regions and also questions on the viability of oil and gas recovery in these regions. (author)

  3. Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1–8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

  4. The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

  5. Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard

  6. Modelling study of regional deposition of inhaled aerosols with special reference to effects of ventilation asymmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nixon, W.; Egan, M.J.

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents the mathematical modelling of aerosol transport and deposition of inhaled aerosols in the lung. Two mathematical models are considered, one assumes the lung to be completely symmetrical, the second incorporates a measure of ventilation inhomogeneity. Both models include the influence of effective axial dispersion. The asymmetrical model is used in the simulations of the radio-bolus inhalation experiments performed by Stahlhofen et al [J. Aerosol Sci. 17, 33], which involved the injection of a bolus at a pre-defined volume towards the end of an inspiration. The impact of the simulation results on regional deposition estimates are discussed. (U.K.)

  7. The Villain as Reference Idol: Selection Frequencies and Salient Attributes among New Zealand Teenagers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnick, Merrill J.; Jackson, Steven J.

    1998-01-01

    Teenagers responded to a questionnaire about their villains; 917 villains from all walks of life were selected. Nine times more male than female figures were selected. The naming of a villain was unrelated to demographic variables. Reasons for dislike and influence of figures as avoidance role models are discussed. (Author/EMK)

  8. Simulation of 1986 South China Sea Monsoon with a Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W. -K.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Jia, Y.; Juang, H.; Wetzel, P.; Qian, J.; Chen, C.

    1999-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) project is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the IndoChina/South China Sea (SCS) region. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. The original MM5 model (without PLACE) includes the option for either a simple slab soil model or a five-layer soil model (MRF) in which the soil moisture availability evolves over time. However, the MM5 soil models do not include the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are precluded. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. In addition, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system has been: (1) coupled to the Goddard Ice Microphysical scheme; (2) coupled to a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme; (3) modified to ensure cloud budget balance; and (4) incorporated initialization with the Goddard EOS data sets at NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The improved MM5 with two nested domains (60 and 20 km horizontal resolution) was used to simulate convective activity over IndoChina and the South China Sea

  9. A multicriteria model for planning agricultural regions within a context of groundwater rational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manos, B; Papathanasiou, J; Bournaris, Th; Voudouris, K

    2010-07-01

    Current international research focuses on topics like sustainable development, regional planning, environmental decision making and implementation, biodiversity conservation plus a number of other relevant issues, especially at times of economic crisis as today. Economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand, provided that decision makers develop and use tools and insights targeting in the implementation of successful and robust long term policies. This paper was developed in the framework of a European research project and implements a Multicriteria Mathematical Programming model that optimises the sustainable management of agricultural regions taking in account the available resources (land, labour, capital) and environmental parameters (agrochemicals, water consumption). The model achieves the optimum farm plan in the area combining different criteria to a utility function under a set of constraints and the spatial integration of the vulnerability maps of the regions into the model enables the regional authorities to design policies for the optimal agricultural development and the groundwater protection from the agricultural land uses. Furthermore, the model is used to simulate different scenarios and policies by the local stakeholders, due to changes on different social, economic and environmental parameters. In this way the decision makers can achieve alternative farm plans and agricultural land uses as well as to estimate economic, social and environmental impacts of different policies. The model has been applied to an agricultural region in Northern Greece and proved to be a valuable tool in the implementation of environmental policies and actions, especially in agricultural regions in a delicate balance as the study area. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling optical and UV polarization of AGNs. III. From uniform-density to clumpy regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, F.; Goosmann, R. W.; Gaskell, C. M.

    2015-05-01

    Context. A growing body of evidence suggests that some, if not all, scattering regions of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are clumpy. The inner AGN components cannot be spatially resolved with current instruments and must be studied by numerical simulations of observed spectroscopy and polarization data. Aims: We run radiative transfer models in the optical/UV for a variety of AGN reprocessing regions with different distributions of clumpy scattering media. We obtain geometry-sensitive polarization spectra and images to improve our previous AGN models and their comparison with the observations. Methods: We use the latest public version 1.2 of the Monte Carlo code stokes presented in the first two papers of this series to model AGN reprocessing regions of increasing morphological complexity. We replace previously uniform-density media with up to thousands of constant-density clumps. We couple a continuum source to fragmented equatorial scattering regions, polar outflows, and toroidal obscuring dust regions and investigate a wide range of geometries. We also consider different levels of fragmentation in each scattering region to evaluate the importance of fragmentation for the net polarization of the AGN. Results: In comparison with uniform-density models, equatorial distributions of gas and dust clouds result in grayer spectra and show a decrease in the net polarization percentage at all lines of sight. The resulting polarization position angle depends on the morphology of the clumpy structure, with extended tori favoring parallel polarization while compact tori produce orthogonal polarization position angles. In the case of polar scattering regions, fragmentation increases the net polarization unless the cloud filling factor is small. A complete AGN model constructed from the individual, fragmented regions can produce low polarization percentages (<2%), with a parallel polarization angle for observer inclinations up to 70° for a torus half opening angle of 60°. For

  11. Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbeth B. Knudsen

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994, age (15-45 and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001.

  12. Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

    2017-04-01

    The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

  13. The generalized model of organization and planning of regional gas supply monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria V. Shevchenko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available At the moment, gas is one of the most promising types of fuel in Ukraine. In this regard, the problems associated with its transportation in the regional system of gas supply are relevant. Now it is not completely solved and needs detailed study the problem of monitoring the regional gas supply system. Aim: The aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of the regional gas supply system at the expense of the organization and planning of gas transport monitoring and, in the future, the synthesis of the monitoring system of regional gas supply. Materials and Methods: The generalized model of organization and planning of monitoring regional gas suppliers were developed to achieve this goal. It allows making decisions on the organization of the monitoring system. In addition, this model makes it possible to plan under conditions of multicriteriality and uncertainty of the source data. Results: The basic criteria and constraints for solving the problem of organizing and planning the monitoring system of regional gas supply are proposed in this work. The corresponding computations were made to confirm the assumptions. The calculations were carried out in context of uncertainty of input data using a set of methods for the analysis of hierarchies, exhaustive search, as well as the methods of decision making in context of uncertainty.

  14. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Shen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  15. Regional flow and solute transport modeling for site suitability. Part I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, J.; Miller, I.

    1979-12-01

    The nature of regional flow systems in large sedimentary basins will largely determine the effectiveness of regional flow as a barrier to radionuclide escape from deep geologic repositories. The purpose of the work reported herein and the proposed future work is to develop a methodology for evaluating regional flow barriers by using numerical models. The Williston Basin was chosen as an archetype case for the regional modeling study. However, due to the simplified nature of the study, the results are not meant to represent the behavior of a repository actually placed within the Williston Basin. The major components of this Phase I study are: (1) assembly and reduction of available data; (2) formulation of a simplified geohydrologic model; (3) computer simulation of fluid flow; and (4) computer simulation of solute transport. As of this report, the first two items are essentially completed. Computer simulation of fluid flow will require some revision and further study, which will be done in the second phase of this study. Computer simulation of solute transport has been considered only on a very preliminary basis. Important conclusions of this Phase I study are as follows. Assembly and reduction of data require an extensive work effort. Generally, the parameters describing fluid flow are poorly known on a regional basis and those describing solute transport are unknown

  16. Modeling Hydrological Processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico Border Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samimi, M.; Jahan, N. T.; Mirchi, A.

    2017-12-01

    Efficient allocation of limited water resources to competing use sectors is becoming increasingly critical for water-scarce regions. Understanding natural and anthropogenic processes affecting hydrological processes is key for efficient water management. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model governing hydrologic processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico border region. Our study area includes the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID), which manages water resources to support irrigated agriculture. The region is facing water resources challenges associated with chronic water scarcity, over-allocation, diminishing water supply, and growing water demand. Agricultural activities rely on conjunctive use of Rio Grande River water supply and groundwater withdrawal. The model is calibrated and validated under baseline conditions in the arid and semi-arid climate in order to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and regional water availability. We highlight the importance of calibrating the crop growth parameters, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge to provide a realistic representation of the hydrological processes and water availability in the region. Furthermore, limitations of the model and its utility to inform stakeholders will be discussed.

  17. Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we