Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

Science.gov (United States)

Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

2017-12-01

A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

2017-11-01

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, M.A.

1994-06-01

Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs

Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

2016-06-01

Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

Technology assessment in energy landscapes. Agent-based modeling of energy conflicts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheffran, Juergen; Link, P. Michael; Shaaban, Mostafa; Suesser, Diana

2017-01-01

The risks and conflicts of the fossil-nuclear age are in contrast to the effects of renewable energies which appear in a largely positive light. However, the transformation towards a low-carbon energy supply creates new energy landscapes with a high demand for suitable land areas - which may also provoke energy conflicts. Technology assessment can contribute to reducing such energy conflicts and increasing public acceptance by using spatial agent-based models that represent dynamic decisions and interactions of stakeholders regarding energy alternatives and land-use options. Northern Germany serves as a case study region where farmers and communities are local actors of the energy transition.

Representing Uncertainty on Model Analysis Plots

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Trevor I.

2016-01-01

Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model.…

Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A

Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-02-17

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

Model documentation: Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it related to the production of the 1994 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO94) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves two purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. Of these six, four are documented in the following chapters: municipal solid waste, wind, solar and biofuels. Geothermal and wood are not currently working components of NEMS. The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological and cost characteristics of renewable energy technologies, and to pass these characteristics to other NEMS modules for the determination of mid-term forecasted renewable energy demand.

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

2009-09-30

The Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling and Analysis Partnership (REMAP) sponsors ongoing workshops to discuss individual 'renewable' technologies, energy/economic modeling, and - to some extent - policy issues related to renewable energy. Since 2002, the group has organized seven workshops, each focusing on a different renewable technology (geothermal, solar, wind, etc.). These workshops originated and continue to be run under an informal partnership of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). EPA originally funded the activities, but support is now shared between EPA and EERE. REMAP has a wide range of participating analysts and models/modelers that come from government, the private sector, and academia. Modelers include staff from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), NREL, EPA, Resources for the Future (RFF), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), ICF International, OnLocation Inc., and Boston University. The working group has more than 40 members, which also includes representatives from DOE, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and ACORE. This report summarizes the activities and findings of the REMAP activity that started in late 2006 with a kickoff meeting, and concluded in mid-2008 with presentations of final results. As the project evolved, the group compared results across models and across technologies rather than just examining a specific technology or activity. The overall goal was to better understand how and why different energy models give similar

Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varela, M.

2001-01-01

The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

Model documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System; Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-02-24

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. This report documents the archived version of NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. It is intended to fulfill the legal obligation of the EIA to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). This report represents Volume 1 of a two-volume set. (Volume 2 will report on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.) Subsequent chapters of this report provide: (1) an overview of the NGTDM (Chapter 2); (2) a description of the interface between the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the NGTDM (Chapter 3); (3) an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM (Chapter 4); (4) the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module (Chapter 5); (5) the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module (Chapter 6); (6) the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module (Chapter 7); (7) the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module (Chapter 8); and (8) a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs (Chapter 9).

Energy-economy models and energy efficiency policy evaluation for the household sector. An analysis of modelling tools and analytical approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena

2009-10-15

Using the residential sector as a case study, the research presented in this report is separated into five main parts: (1) review of bottom-up methodologies and corresponding energy-economy models; (2) key drivers of energy demand and end-use coverage, (3) choice-determinants for efficient-technologies embedded in modelling methodologies; and (4) the analysis of modelling studies that focus on ex-ante energy efficiency policy evaluation. Based on the findings, (5) several research areas to further advance models are identified and discussed. We first identify four types of methodological categories: simulation, optimisation, accounting and hybrid models. A representative sample of these various methodological categories is reviewed. Technology representation is mostly explicit and technologically rich across all the reviewed models. This is a critical requisite for simulating energy efficiency policy instruments or portfolios that aim to induce ample technological change. Regardless the methodological approach, the explicit and rich technological component allows coverage of numerous energy services. All the reviewed models originate from the OECD region and more than 60 per cent of the identified applications focus mostly on developed countries. To some extent, this finding correlates with the claims about the need for more policy evaluation efforts to assist energy efficiency policy and other GHG mitigation options for the building sector in developing countries. We find that whereas capital and operating costs are relevant for efficient-technology (non-)adoption, they represent only a part of a great variety of determinants that drives consumer's energy-related decisions regarding technology choices. Factors including design, comfort, brand, functionality, reliability, environmental awareness, among others, are likely to influence the decisions of consumers in reality. Whereas economic variables are used as key determinants for technology choice in energy

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sivaraman, Deepak [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Elliott, Douglas B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bartlett, Rosemarie [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-10-31

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO₂ emissions at the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.

Towards an integrated model of floodplain hydrology representing feedbacks and anthropogenic effects

Science.gov (United States)

Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Voisin, N.; O'Loughlin, F.; Tesfa, T. K.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between hillslopes, river channels and floodplain can be quite complex and the difficulty in capturing the mechanisms behind it is exacerbated by the impact of human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations. Although there has been a vast body of work on modeling hydrological processes, most of the resulting models have been limited with regards to aspects of the coupled human-natural system. For example, hydrologic models that represent processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, interception and groundwater dynamics often neglect anthropogenic effects or do not adequately represent the inherently two-dimensional floodplain flow. We present an integrated modeling framework that is comprised of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and the Water resources Management (WM) model. The VIC model solves the energy and water balance over a gridded domain and simulates a number of hydrologic features such as snow, frozen soils, lakes and wetlands, while also representing irrigation demand from cropland areas. LISFLOOD-FP solves an approximation of the Saint-Venant equations to efficiently simulate flow in river channels and the floodplain. The implementation of WM accommodates a variety of operating rules in reservoirs and withdrawals due to consumptive demands, allowing the successful simulation of regulated flow. The models are coupled so as to allow feedbacks between their corresponding processes, therefore providing the ability to test different hypotheses about the floodplain hydrology of large-scale basins. We test this integrated framework over the Zambezi River basin by simulating its hydrology from 2000-2010, and evaluate the results against remotely sensed observations. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of streamflow and water inundation to changes in reservoir operations, precipitation and temperature.

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nachet, S.

1996-01-01

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nachet, S.

1996-01-01

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

Science.gov (United States)

Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berglund, Christer; Soederholm, Patrik

2006-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview and a critical analysis of the recent literature on incorporating induced technical change in energy systems models. Special emphasis is put on surveying recent studies aimed at integrating learning-by-doing into bottom-up energy systems models through so-called learning curves, and on analyzing the relevance of learning curve analysis for understanding the process of innovation and technology diffusion in the energy sector. The survey indicates that this model work represents a major advance in energy research, and embeds important policy implications, not the least concerning the cost and the timing of environmental policies (including carbon emission constraints). However, bottom-up energy models with endogenous learning are also limited in their characterization of technology diffusion and innovation. While they provide a detailed account of technical options-which is absent in many top-down models-they also lack important aspects of diffusion behavior that are captured in top-down representations. For instance, they often fail in capturing strategic technology diffusion behavior in the energy sector as well as the energy sector's endogenous responses to policy, and they neglect important general equilibrium impacts (such as the opportunity cost of redirecting R and D support to the energy sector). Some suggestions on how innovation and diffusion modeling in bottom-up analysis can be improved are put forward

Quantifying and Disaggregating Consumer Purchasing Behavior for Energy Systems Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Consumer behaviors such as energy conservation, adoption of more efficient technologies, and fuel switching represent significant potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. Current efforts to model future energy outcomes have tended to use simplified economic assumptions ...

Model documentation renewable fuels module of the National Energy Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

1995-06-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1995 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO95) forecasts. The report catalogs and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. The RFM also reads in hydroelectric facility capacities and capacity factors from a data file for use by the NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM). The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological, cost, and resource size characteristics of renewable energy technologies. These characteristics are used to compute a levelized cost to be competed against other similarly derived costs from other energy sources and technologies. The competition of these energy sources over the NEMS time horizon determines the market penetration of these renewable energy technologies. The characteristics include available energy capacity, capital costs, fixed operating costs, variable operating costs, capacity factor, heat rate, construction lead time, and fuel product price.

Model documentation renewable fuels module of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-06-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1995 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO95) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources--wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. The RFM also reads in hydroelectric facility capacities and capacity factors from a data file for use by the NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM). The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological, cost and resource size characteristics of renewable energy technologies. These characteristics are used to compute a levelized cost to be competed against other similarly derived costs from other energy sources and technologies. The competition of these energy sources over the NEMS time horizon determines the market penetration of these renewable energy technologies. The characteristics include available energy capacity, capital costs, fixed operating costs, variable operating costs, capacity factor, heat rate, construction lead time, and fuel product price.

Modeling Technical Change in Energy System Analysis: Analyzing the Introduction of Learning-by-Doing in Bottom-up Energy Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berglund, Christer; Soederholm, Patrik [Luleaa Univ. of Technology (Sweden). Div. of Economics

2005-02-01

The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview and a critical analysis of the recent literature on incorporating induced technical change in energy systems models. Special emphasis is put on surveying recent studies aiming at integrating learning-by-doing into bottom-up energy systems models through so-called learning curves, and on analyzing the relevance of learning curve analysis for understanding the process of innovation and technology diffusion in the energy sector. The survey indicates that this model work represents a major advance in energy research, and embeds important policy implications, not the least concerning the cost and the timing of environmental policies (including carbon emission constraints). However, bottom-up energy models with endogenous learning are also limited in their characterization of technology diffusion and innovation. While they provide a detailed account of technical options - which is absent in many top-down models - they also lack important aspects of diffusion behavior that are captured in top-down representations. For instance, they fail in capturing strategic technology diffusion behavior in the energy sector, and they neglect important general equilibrium impacts (such as the opportunity cost of redirecting R and D support to the energy sector). For these reasons bottom-up and top-down models with induced technical change should not be viewed as substitutes but rather as complements.

Towards an energy end use model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith Fontana, Raul

2003-01-01

The general equilibrium energy end use model proposed, uses linear programming as te basic and central element to optimization of variables defined in the economic and energy areas of the country related to a four factors structure: Energy, Raw Material, Capital and Labor, and related to the sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. Input-Output coefficients are defined in an input-output matrix of processes representing the supply of Electricity (generated by nuclear- not available in Chile-hydro, gas, fuel-oil and coal), Petroleum, Imported Natural Gas (transported and distributed) National Natural Gas, LPG, Coal, Wood and representing a demand of Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. There is an interaction of the final demand composition, the prices of capital, labor and taxes with the levels of operation for each process and the prices of goods and services. In addition to the prices of fuels for each annual period, to the supply and demand of energy and to the total demand it can forecast the optimum coefficients of the final demand. If the data to be collected result reasonably complete and consistent, the model will be useful for planning. A special effort should be placed in specifying a certain number of typical energy activities, the available options for fuels, the selection of them attending rational market decisions and conservation according to well known economical criteria of substitution. To simulate the process of options selection given by the activities and to allow substitutions, it is possible to introduce the logit function characterized by a Weibull distribution and the generalized substitution function characterized by the constant electricity. The model would allow, assuming differents scenario, to visualize general policies in the penetration of energy technologies. To study the penetration of electric energy generated by nuclear, in which the country does not have

Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues

Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-02-26

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.

Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

Identifying optimal models to represent biochemical systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mochamad Apri

Full Text Available Biochemical systems involving a high number of components with intricate interactions often lead to complex models containing a large number of parameters. Although a large model could describe in detail the mechanisms that underlie the system, its very large size may hinder us in understanding the key elements of the system. Also in terms of parameter identification, large models are often problematic. Therefore, a reduced model may be preferred to represent the system. Yet, in order to efficaciously replace the large model, the reduced model should have the same ability as the large model to produce reliable predictions for a broad set of testable experimental conditions. We present a novel method to extract an "optimal" reduced model from a large model to represent biochemical systems by combining a reduction method and a model discrimination method. The former assures that the reduced model contains only those components that are important to produce the dynamics observed in given experiments, whereas the latter ensures that the reduced model gives a good prediction for any feasible experimental conditions that are relevant to answer questions at hand. These two techniques are applied iteratively. The method reveals the biological core of a model mathematically, indicating the processes that are likely to be responsible for certain behavior. We demonstrate the algorithm on two realistic model examples. We show that in both cases the core is substantially smaller than the full model.

Picturing and modelling catchments by representative hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Loritz, Ralf; Hassler, Sibylle; Jackisch, Conrad; Zehe, Erwin

2016-04-01

Hydrological modelling studies often start with a qualitative sketch of the hydrological processes of a catchment. These so-called perceptual models are often pictured as hillslopes and are generalizations displaying only the dominant and relevant processes of a catchment or hillslope. The problem with these models is that they are prone to become too much predetermined by the designer's background and experience. Moreover it is difficult to know if that picture is correct and contains enough complexity to represent the system under study. Nevertheless, because of their qualitative form, perceptual models are easy to understand and can be an excellent tool for multidisciplinary exchange between researchers with different backgrounds, helping to identify the dominant structures and processes in a catchment. In our study we explore whether a perceptual model built upon an intensive field campaign may serve as a blueprint for setting up representative hillslopes in a hydrological model to reproduce the functioning of two distinctly different catchments. We use a physically-based 2D hillslope model which has proven capable to be driven by measured soil-hydrological parameters. A key asset of our approach is that the model structure itself remains a picture of the perceptual model, which is benchmarked against a) geo-physical images of the subsurface and b) observed dynamics of discharge, distributed state variables and fluxes (soil moisture, matric potential and sap flow). Within this approach we are able to set up two behavioral model structures which allow the simulation of the most important hydrological fluxes and state variables in good accordance with available observations within the 19.4 km2 large Colpach catchment and the 4.5 km2 large Wollefsbach catchment in Luxembourg without the necessity of calibration. This corroborates, contrary to the widespread opinion, that a) lower mesoscale catchments may be modelled by representative hillslopes and b) physically

How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Chen

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Land systems are characterised by many feedbacks that can result in complex system behaviour. We defined feedbacks as the two-way influences between the land use system and a related system (e.g., climate, soils and markets, both of which are encompassed by the land system. Land models that include feedbacks thus probably more accurately mimic how land systems respond to, e.g., policy or climate change. However, representing feedbacks in land models is a challenge. We reviewed articles incorporating feedbacks into land models and analysed each with predefined indicators. We found that (1 most modelled feedbacks couple land use systems with transport, soil and market systems, while only a few include feedbacks between land use and social systems or climate systems; (2 equation-based land use models that follow a top-down approach prevail; and (3 feedbacks’ effects on system behaviour remain relatively unexplored. We recommend that land system modellers (1 consider feedbacks between land use systems and social systems; (2 adopt (bottom-up approaches suited to incorporating spatial heterogeneity and better representing land use decision-making; and (3 pay more attention to nonlinear system behaviour and its implications for land system management and policy.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

2017-11-03

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

2016-03-01

The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gota, Dan-Ioan; Lund, Henrik; Miclea, Liviu

2011-01-01

This paper presents a model of the Romanian energy system with the purpose of providing a tool for the analysis of future sustainable energy strategies. The model represents the total national energy system and is detailed to the level of hourly demand and production in order to be able to analyse...... the consequences of adding fluctuating renewable energy sources to the system. The model has been implemented into the EnergyPLAN tool and has been validated in order to determine if it can be used as a reference model for other simulations. In EnergyPLAN, two different future strategy scenarios for the Romanian...... energy system are compared to the actual data of Romania of year 2008. First, a comparison is made between the 2008 model and the 2013 strategy scenario corresponding to the grid of the Romanian transmission system operator (TSO) Transelectrica. Then, a comparison is made to a second strategy scenario...

Ultra high energy interaction models for Monte Carlo calculations: what model is the best fit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stanev, Todor [Bartol Research Institute, University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716 (United States)

2006-01-15

We briefly outline two methods for extension of hadronic interaction models to extremely high energy. Then we compare the main characteristics of representative computer codes that implement the different models and give examples of air shower parameters predicted by those codes.

U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of the National Building Stock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deru, M.; Field, K.; Studer, D.; Benne, K.; Griffith, B.; Torcellini, P.; Liu, B.; Halverson, M.; Winiarski, D.; Rosenberg, M.; Yazdanian, M.; Huang, J.; Crawley, D.

2011-02-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Program has set the aggressive goal of producing marketable net-zero energy buildings by 2025. This goal will require collaboration between the DOE laboratories and the building industry. We developed standard or reference energy models for the most common commercial buildings to serve as starting points for energy efficiency research. These models represent fairly realistic buildings and typical construction practices. Fifteen commercial building types and one multifamily residential building were determined by consensus between DOE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and represent approximately two-thirds of the commercial building stock.

STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea Feraru

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.

Modification of Spalart-Allmaras model with consideration of turbulence energy backscatter using velocity helicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yangwei; Lu, Lipeng; Fang, Le; Gao, Feng

2011-01-01

The correlation between the velocity helicity and the energy backscatter is proved in a DNS case of 256 3 -grid homogeneous isotropic decaying turbulence. The helicity is then proposed to be employed to improve turbulence models and SGS models. Then Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model (SA) is modified with the helicity to take account of the energy backscatter, which is significant in the region of corner separation in compressors. By comparing the numerical results with experiments, it can be concluded that the modification for SA model with helicity can appropriately represent the energy backscatter, and greatly improves the predictive accuracy for simulating the corner separation flow in compressors. -- Highlights: → We study the relativity between the velocity helicity and the energy backscatter. → Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model is modified with the velocity helicity. → The modified model is employed to simulate corner separation in compressor cascade. → The modification can greatly improve the accuracy for predicting corner separation. → The helicity can represent the energy backscatter in turbulence and SGS models.

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Gauge Group Contraction of Electroweak Model and its Natural Energy Limits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolai A. Gromov

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The low and higher energy limits of the Electroweak Model are obtained from first principles of gauge theory. Both limits are given by the same contraction of the gauge group, but for the different consistent rescalings of the field space. Mathematical contraction parameter in both cases is interpreted as energy. The very weak neutrino-matter interaction is explained by zero tending contraction parameter, which depends on neutrino energy. The second consistent rescaling corresponds to the higher energy limit of the Electroweak Model. At the infinite energy all particles lose masses, electroweak interactions become long-range and are mediated by the neutral currents. The limit model represents the development of the early Universe from the Big Bang up to the end of the first second.

Assessing and optimizing the economic and environmental impacts of cogeneration/district energy systems using an energy equilibrium model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Y.J.; Rosen, M.A.

1999-01-01

Energy equilibrium models can be valuable aids in energy planning and decision-making. In such models, supply is represented by a cost-minimizing linear submodel and demand by a smooth vector-valued function of prices. In this paper, we use the energy equilibrium model to study conventional systems and cogeneration-based district energy (DE) systems for providing heating, cooling and electrical services, not only to assess the potential economic and environmental benefits of cogeneration-based DE systems, but also to develop optimal configurations while accounting for such factors as economics and environmental impact. The energy equilibrium model is formulated and solved with software called WATEMS, which uses sequential non-linear programming to calculate the intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. The methods of analysis and evaluation for the economic and environmental impacts are carefully explored. An illustrative energy equilibrium model of conventional and cogeneration-based DE systems is developed within WATEMS to compare quantitatively the economic and environmental impacts of those systems for various scenarios. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Energy modelling software

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Osburn, L

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The construction industry has turned to energy modelling in order to assist them in reducing the amount of energy consumed by buildings. However, while the energy loads of buildings can be accurately modelled, energy models often under...

Translating building information modeling to building energy modeling using model view definition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, WoonSeong; Kim, Jong Bum; Clayton, Mark J; Haberl, Jeff S; Yan, Wei

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM) has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD) consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM) and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica) development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1) the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2) BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1) enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2) enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3) facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process.

Translating Building Information Modeling to Building Energy Modeling Using Model View Definition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WoonSeong Jeong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM and Building Energy Modeling (BEM that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1 the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2 BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1 enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2 enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3 facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process.

Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aguilera, Roberto F.; Ripple, Ronald D.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We model the market shares (i.e. energy mix) of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. • The model matches the historical energy mix and projects three scenarios of the future mix to 2030. • We then model the past and future hydrogen to carbon ratio (a proxy for environmental quality). • Importance of natural gas in the region could increase significantly, depending on policy and tech progress. - Abstract: A Global Energy Market model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares (i.e. the primary energy mix) of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model is successful in matching the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2009. The model also provides a good match of the hydrogen to carbon ratio, which is a proxy for environmental quality. Given these validations, the GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and hydrogen to carbon ratio until the year 2030. Three energy mix scenarios are presented – reference case; alternative case 1; alternative case 2. The reference case assumes limited divergence from current policies and technologies. It indicates that Asia Pacific energy needs will be met by approximately 46% solids, 34% liquids, and 20% gases by 2030. Alternative cases 1 and 2 represent policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage the use of gases. The good matches observed for historical data suggest the GEM can be used cautiously for evaluating outcomes and opportunities in the region. Although the model can be used for projecting far into the future, it is currently calibrated to what we consider a reasonable time horizon – until the year 2030. Given appropriate energy policies and sufficient technological advancement, the importance of natural gas in the region could increase significantly

Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Edward; Brown, Peter

2018-01-01

Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

Experimental model of a wind energy conversion system

Science.gov (United States)

Vasar, C.; Rat, C. L.; Prostean, O.

2018-01-01

The renewable energy domain represents an important issue for the sustainable development of the mankind in the actual context of increasing demand for energy along with the increasing pollution that affect the environment. A significant quota of the clean energy is represented by the wind energy. As a consequence, the developing of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) in order to achieve high energetic performances (efficiency, stability, availability, competitive cost etc) represents a topic of permanent actuality. Testing and developing of an optimized control strategy for a WECS direct implemented on a real energetic site is quite difficult and not cost efficient. Thus a more convenient solution consists in a flexible laboratory setup which requires an experimental model of a WECS. Such approach would allow the simulation of various real conditions very similar with existing energetic sites. This paper presents a grid-connected wind turbine emulator. The wind turbine is implemented through a real-time Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) emulator, which will be analyzed extensively in the paper. The HIL system uses software implemented in the LabVIEW programming environment to control an ABB ACS800 electric drive. ACS800 has the task of driving an induction machine coupled to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. The power obtained from the synchronous generator is rectified, filtered and sent to the main grid through a controlled inverter. The control strategy is implemented on a NI CompactRIO (cRIO) platform.

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-12-01

Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

Energy efficiency resource modeling in generation expansion planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghaderi, A.; Parsa Moghaddam, M.; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

2014-01-01

Energy efficiency plays an important role in mitigating energy security risks and emission problems. In this paper, energy efficiency resources are modeled as efficiency power plants (EPP) to evaluate their impacts on generation expansion planning (GEP). The supply curve of EPP is proposed using the production function of electricity consumption. A decision making framework is also presented to include EPP in GEP problem from an investor's point of view. The revenue of EPP investor is obtained from energy cost reduction of consumers and does not earn any income from electricity market. In each stage of GEP, a bi-level model for operation problem is suggested: the upper-level represents profit maximization of EPP investor and the lower-level corresponds to maximize the social welfare. To solve the bi-level problem, a fixed-point iteration algorithm is used known as diagonalization method. Energy efficiency feed-in tariff is investigated as a regulatory support scheme to encourage the investor. Results pertaining to a case study are simulated and discussed. - Highlights: • An economic model for energy efficiency programs is presented. • A framework is provided to model energy efficiency resources in GEP problem. • FIT is investigated as a regulatory support scheme to encourage the EPP investor. • The capacity expansion is delayed and reduced with considering EPP in GEP. • FIT-II can more effectively increase the energy saving compared to FIT-I

Modeling of battery energy storage in the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swaminathan, S.; Flynn, W.T.; Sen, R.K. [Sentech, Inc., Bethesda, MD (United States)

1997-12-01

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) developed by the U.S. Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration is a well-recognized model that is used to project the potential impact of new electric generation technologies. The NEMS model does not presently have the capability to model energy storage on the national grid. The scope of this study was to assess the feasibility of, and make recommendations for, the modeling of battery energy storage systems in the Electricity Market of the NEMS. Incorporating storage within the NEMS will allow the national benefits of storage technologies to be evaluated.

Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; Guo, Siyue

2014-02-28

Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2). User's manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The IAEA has been supporting its Member States in the area of energy planning for sustainable development. Development and dissemination of appropriate methodologies and their computer codes are important parts of this support. This manual has been produced to facilitate the use of the MAED model: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand. The methodology of the MAED model was originally developed by. B. Chateau and B. Lapillonne of the Institute Economique et Juridique de l'Energie (IEJE) of the University of Grenoble, France, and was presented as the MEDEE model. Since then the MEDEE model has been developed and adopted to be appropriate for modelling of various energy demand system. The IAEA adopted MEDEE-2 model and incorporated important modifications to make it more suitable for application in the developing countries, and it was named as the MAED model. The first version of the MAED model was designed for the DOS based system, which was later on converted for the Windows system. This manual presents the latest version of the MAED model. The most prominent feature of this version is its flexibility for representing structure of energy consumption. The model now allows country-specific representations of energy consumption patterns using the MAED methodology. The user can now disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in her/his country. As such, MAED has now become a powerful tool for modelling widely diverse energy consumption patterns. This manual presents the model in details and provides guidelines for its application

Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

2005-01-01

Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

Building an Efficient Model for Afterburn Energy Release

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alves, S; Kuhl, A; Najjar, F; Tringe, J; McMichael, L; Glascoe, L

2012-02-03

Many explosives will release additional energy after detonation as the detonation products mix with the ambient environment. This additional energy release, referred to as afterburn, is due to combustion of undetonated fuel with ambient oxygen. While the detonation energy release occurs on a time scale of microseconds, the afterburn energy release occurs on a time scale of milliseconds with a potentially varying energy release rate depending upon the local temperature and pressure. This afterburn energy release is not accounted for in typical equations of state, such as the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) model, used for modeling the detonation of explosives. Here we construct a straightforward and efficient approach, based on experiments and theory, to account for this additional energy release in a way that is tractable for large finite element fluid-structure problems. Barometric calorimeter experiments have been executed in both nitrogen and air environments to investigate the characteristics of afterburn for C-4 and other materials. These tests, which provide pressure time histories, along with theoretical and analytical solutions provide an engineering basis for modeling afterburn with numerical hydrocodes. It is toward this end that we have constructed a modified JWL equation of state to account for afterburn effects on the response of structures to blast. The modified equation of state includes a two phase afterburn energy release to represent variations in the energy release rate and an afterburn energy cutoff to account for partial reaction of the undetonated fuel.

A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Yiyong; Newth, David; Finnigan, John; Gunasekera, Don

2015-01-01

Highlights: • This paper introduces the design of a hybrid energy-economy model, GTEM-C. • The model offers a unified tool to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. • Results are presented on global energy transformation due to carbon mitigation. • Electrification with renewable energies can contain the spiking of carbon prices. - Abstract: This paper introduces the design of the CSIRO variant of the Global Trade and Environment model (GTEM-C). GTEM-C is a hybrid model that combines the top-down macroeconomic representation of a computable general equilibrium model with the bottom-up engineering details of energy production. The model features detailed accounting for global energy flows that are embedded in traded energy goods, and it offers a unified framework to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. As an illustrative example, we present simulation results on global energy transformation under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative carbon pathways 4.5 and 8.5. By testing the model’s sensitivity to the relevant parameter, we find that the pace of electrification will significantly contain the spiking of carbon prices because electricity can be produced from carbon-free or less carbon-intensive technologies. The decoupling of energy use and carbon footprint, due to the uptake of clean electricity technologies, such as nuclear, wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage, allows the world to maintain high level of energy consumption, which is essential to economic growth

Modelling the existing Irish energy-system to identify future energy costs and the maximum wind penetration feasible

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Connolly, D.; Leahy, M.; Lund, H.; Mathiesen, B.V.

2010-01-01

In this study a model of the Irish energy-system was developed using EnergyPLAN based on the year 2007, which was then used for three investigations. The first compares the model results with actual values from 2007 to validate its accuracy. The second illustrates the exposure of the existing Irish energy-system to future energy costs by considering future fuel prices, CO 2 prices, and different interest rates. The final investigation identifies the maximum wind penetration feasible on the 2007 Irish energy-system from a technical and economic perspective, as wind is the most promising fluctuating renewable resource available in Ireland. It is concluded that the reference model simulates the Irish energy-system accurately, the annual fuel costs for Ireland's energy could increase by approximately 58% from 2007 to 2020 if a business-as-usual scenario is followed, and the optimum wind penetration for the existing Irish energy-system is approximately 30% from both a technical and economic perspective based on 2020 energy prices. Future studies will use the model developed in this study to show that higher wind penetrations can be achieved if the existing energy-system is modified correctly. Finally, these results are not only applicable to Ireland, but also represent the issues facing many other countries. (author)

Low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Divotgey, Florian [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Kovacs, Peter [Wigner Research Center for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Budapest (Hungary); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, ExtreMe Matter Institute, Darmstadt (Germany); Giacosa, Francesco [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Jan-Kochanowski University, Institute of Physics, Kielce (Poland); Rischke, Dirk H. [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); University of Science and Technology of China, Interdisciplinary Center for Theoretical Study and Department of Modern Physics, Hefei, Anhui (China)

2018-01-15

The extended Linear Sigma Model is an effective hadronic model based on the linear realization of chiral symmetry SU(N{sub f}){sub L} x SU(N{sub f}){sub R}, with (pseudo)scalar and (axial-)vector mesons as degrees of freedom. In this paper, we study the low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) for N{sub f} = flavors by integrating out all fields except for the pions, the (pseudo-)Nambu-Goldstone bosons of chiral symmetry breaking. The resulting low-energy effective action is identical to Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) after choosing a representative for the coset space generated by chiral symmetry breaking and expanding it in powers of (derivatives of) the pion fields. The tree-level values of the coupling constants of the effective low-energy action agree remarkably well with those of ChPT. (orig.)

Concepts for dynamic modelling of energy-related flows in manufacturing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, A.J.; Oates, M.R.; Greenough, R.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Modelling of the thermal flows in factories and processes is usually separate. ► We propose a set of key features for an integrated thermal model. ► Such models can be used to improve the efficiency of manufacturing processes. - Abstract: Industry uses around one third of the world’s energy, and accounts for about 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions. There is increasing economic and social pressure to improve efficiency and create closed-loop industrial systems, in which energy efficiency plays a key role. This paper describes some of the key concepts involved in modelling the energy flows in manufacturing, both for the building services and the industrial processes. Detailed dynamic energy simulation of buildings is well established and routinely used, working on a time series basis – but current tools are inadequate to model the energy flows of many industrial processes. There are also well-established models of manufacturing flows, used to optimise production efficiency, but typically not modelling energy, and usually representing production and material flows as event-driven processes. The THERM project has developed new software tools to model energy-related and other utility flows in manufacturing, incorporating these into existing thermal models of factory buildings. This makes it possible to map out the whole energy system, and hence to test efficiency measures, to understand the effect of processes on building energy use, to investigate recycling of heat or cooling into other processes or building conditioning, and so on. The paper describes some of the key concepts and modelling approaches involved in developing these models, and gives examples of some real processes modelled in factories. It concludes that such models are entirely feasible and potentially very useful, although to develop a tool which comprehensively models both energy and manufacturing flows would be a major undertaking

Modeling Stochastic Energy and Water Consumption to Manage Residential Water Uses

Science.gov (United States)

Abdallah, A. M.; Rosenberg, D. E.; Water; Energy Conservation

2011-12-01

Water energy linkages have received growing attention from the water and energy utilities as utilities recognize that collaborative efforts can implement more effective conservation and efficiency improvement programs at lower cost with less effort. To date, limited energy-water household data has allowed only deterministic analysis for average, representative households and required coarse assumptions - like the water heater (the primary energy use in a home apart from heating and cooling) be a single end use. Here, we use recent available disaggregated hot and cold water household end-use data to estimate water and energy consumption for toilet, shower, faucet, dishwasher, laundry machine, leaks, and other household uses and savings from appliance retrofits. The disaggregated hot water and bulk water end-use data was previously collected by the USEPA for 96 single family households in Seattle WA and Oakland CA, and Tampa FL between the period from 2000 and 2003 for two weeks before and four weeks after each household was retrofitted with water efficient appliances. Using the disaggregated data, we developed a stochastic model that represents factors that influence water use for each appliance: behavioral (use frequency and duration), demographical (household size), and technological (use volume or flowrate). We also include stochastic factors that govern energy to heat hot water: hot water fraction (percentage of hot water volume to total water volume used in a certain end-use event), heater water intake and dispense temperatures, and energy source for the heater (gas, electric, etc). From the empirical household end-use data, we derive stochastic probability distributions for each water and energy factor where each distribution represents the range and likelihood of values that the factor may take. The uncertainty of the stochastic water and energy factors is propagated using Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the composite probability distribution for water

Models with Men and Women: Representing Gender in Dynamic Modeling of Social Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Erika; Wilson, Benedicte

2018-04-01

Dynamic engineering models have yet to be evaluated in the context of feminist engineering ethics. Decision-making concerning gender in dynamic modeling design is a gender and ethical issue that is important to address regardless of the system in which the dynamic modeling is applied. There are many dynamic modeling tools that operationally include the female population, however, there is an important distinction between females and women; it is the difference between biological sex and the social construct of gender, which is fluid and changes over time and geography. The ethical oversight in failing to represent or misrepresenting gender in model design when it is relevant to the model purpose can have implications for model validity and policy model development. This paper highlights this gender issue in the context of feminist engineering ethics using a dynamic population model. Women are often represented in this type of model only in their biological capacity, while lacking their gender identity. This illustrative example also highlights how language, including the naming of variables and communication with decision-makers, plays a role in this gender issue.

Energy technology impacts on agriculture with a bibliography of models for impact assessment on crop ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rupp, E.M.; Luxmoore, R.J.; Parzyck, D.C.

1979-09-01

Possible impacts of energy technologies on agriculture are evaluated, and some of the available simulation models that can be used for predictive purposes are identified. An overview of energy technologies and impacts on the environment is presented to provide a framework for the commentary on the models. Coal combustion is shown to have major impacts on the environment and these will continue into the next century according to current Department of Energy projections. Air pollution effects will thus remain as the major impacts on crop ecosystems. Two hundred reports were evaluated, representing a wide range of models increasing in complexity from mathematical functions (fitted to data) through parametric models (which represent phenomena without describing the mechanisms) to mechanistic models (based on physical, chemical, and physiological principles). Many models were viewed as suitable for adaptation to technology assessment through the incorporation of representative dose-response relationships. It is clear that in many cases available models cannot be taken and directly applied in technology assessment. Very few models of air pollutant-crop interactions were identified, even though there is a considerable data base of pollutant effects on crops.

Using a Mechanistic Reactive Transport Model to Represent Soil Organic Matter Dynamics and Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Guerry, N.; Riley, W. J.; Maggi, F.; Torn, M. S.; Kleber, M.

2011-12-01

The nature of long term Soil Organic Matter (SOM) dynamics is uncertain and the mechanisms involved are crudely represented in site, regional, and global models. Recent work challenging the paradigm that SOM is stabilized because of its sequential transformations to more intrinsically recalcitrant compounds motivated us to develop a mechanistic modeling framework that can be used to test hypotheses of SOM dynamics. We developed our C cycling model in TOUGHREACT, an established 3-dimensional reactive transport solver that accounts for multiple phases (aqueous, gaseous, sorbed), multiple species, advection and diffusion, and multiple microbial populations. Energy and mass exchange through the soil boundaries are accounted for via ground heat flux, rainfall, C sources (e.g., exudation, woody, leaf, root litter) and C losses (e.g., CO2 emissions and DOC deep percolation). SOM is categorized according to the various types of compounds commonly found in the above mentioned C sources and microbial byproducts, including poly- and monosaccharides, lignin, amino compounds, organic acids, nucleic acids, lipids, and phenols. Each of these compounds is accounted for by one or more representative species in the model. A reaction network was developed to describe the microbially-mediated processes and chemical interactions of these species, including depolymerization, microbial assimilation, respiration and deposition of byproducts, and incorporation of dead biomass into SOM stocks. Enzymatic reactions are characterized by Michaelis-Menten kinetics, with maximum reaction rates determined by the species' O/C ratio. Microbial activity is further regulated by soil moisture content, O2 availability, pH, and temperature. For the initial set of simulations, literature values were used to constrain microbial Monod parameters, Michaelis-Menten parameters, sorption parameters, physical protection, partitioning of microbial byproducts, and partitioning of litter inputs, although there is

Model of sustainable development of energy system, case of Hamedan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahabmanesh, Aref; Saboohi, Yadollah

2017-01-01

Sustainable economic growth and improvement of the social welfare depend upon the sufficient supply of energy resources, while the utilization of energy resources is one of the main factors of environmental degradation. This research is involved with development of a sustainable energy system model and a new method for sustainability assessment. This model represents the flow of energy from primary resources through processing, conversion, and end-use technologies in an optimization framework where the useful energy demand in various social and economic sectors is met. The impact of energy supply and consumption chain on the environment at each level of energy system is also embedded in the model structure. A multi-criteria analysis of changes is then applied and sustainable development indices of the whole system are concluded. Finally, effects of the energy subsidy policy and high economic growth rate on sustainability of the energy system in three scenarios are analyzed. Results demonstrate that energy subsidy decelerates the improvement rate of the total sustainability index. Also, when a high economic growth is accompanied with the energy subsidy this index reduces considerably. Results show that how penetration of renewable energy potentials changes the sustainability situation of energy systems. - Highlights: • Developing a new model for sustainable energy systems. • Presenting a new method for sustainability assessment of energy systems. • Optimizing the energy flow and capacity expansion of Hamedan energy system. • Utilizing an MCDA approach to obtain sustainability indices of the whole system. • Analysis of energy subsidy and high economic growth on energy sustainability.

DEM code-based modeling of energy accumulation and release in structurally heterogeneous rock masses

Science.gov (United States)

Lavrikov, S. V.; Revuzhenko, A. F.

2015-10-01

Based on discrete element method, the authors model loading of a physical specimen to describe its capacity to accumulate and release elastic energy. The specimen is modeled as a packing of particles with viscoelastic coupling and friction. The external elastic boundary of the packing is represented by particles connected by elastic springs. The latter means introduction of an additional special potential of interaction between the boundary particles, that exercises effect even when there is no direct contact between the particles. On the whole, the model specimen represents an element of a medium capable of accumulation of deformation energy in the form of internal stresses. The data of the numerical modeling of the physical specimen compression and the laboratory testing results show good qualitative consistency.

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2; La dynamique du marche mondial de l`energie: une approche modelisee. Tome 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachet, S

1996-02-14

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends.

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1; La dynamique du marche mondial de l`energie: une approche modelisee. Tome 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachet, S

1996-02-14

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends.

Model-based predictive control applied to multi-carrier energy systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, M.; Negenborn, R.R.; Andersson, G.; De Schutter, B.

2009-01-01

The optimal operation of an integrated electricity and natural gas infrastructure is investigated. The couplings between the electricity system and the gas system are modeled by so-called energy hubs, which represent the interface between the loads on the one hand and the transmission

Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

2001-01-01

We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

Solar radiation modeling and measurements for renewable energy applications: data and model quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, Daryl R.

2005-01-01

Measurement and modeling of broadband and spectral terrestrial solar radiation is important for the evaluation and deployment of solar renewable energy systems. We discuss recent developments in the calibration of broadband solar radiometric instrumentation and improving broadband solar radiation measurement accuracy. An improved diffuse sky reference and radiometer calibration and characterization software for outdoor pyranometer calibrations are outlined. Several broadband solar radiation model approaches, including some developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, for estimating direct beam, total hemispherical and diffuse sky radiation are briefly reviewed. The latter include the Bird clear sky model for global, direct beam, and diffuse terrestrial solar radiation; the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) for estimating direct beam radiation from global measurements; and the METSTAT (Meteorological and Statistical) and Climatological Solar Radiation (CSR) models that estimate solar radiation from meteorological data. We conclude that currently the best model uncertainties are representative of the uncertainty in measured data

Solar radiation modeling and measurements for renewable energy applications: data and model quality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Myers, D.R. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

2005-07-01

Measurement and modeling of broadband and spectral terrestrial solar radiation is important for the evaluation and deployment of solar renewable energy systems. We discuss recent developments in the calibration of broadband solar radiometric instrumentation and improving broadband solar radiation measurement accuracy. An improved diffuse sky reference and radiometer calibration and characterization software for outdoor pyranometer calibrations are outlined. Several broadband solar radiation model approaches, including some developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, for estimating direct beam, total hemispherical and diffuse sky radiation are briefly reviewed. The latter include the Bird clear sky model for global, direct beam, and diffuse terrestrial solar radiation; the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) for estimating direct beam radiation from global measurements; and the METSTAT (Meteorological and Statistical) and Climatological Solar Radiation (CSR) models that estimate solar radiation from meteorological data. We conclude that currently the best model uncertainties are representative of the uncertainty in measured data. (author)

Mathematical modelling of frequency-dependent hysteresis and energy loss of FeBSiC amorphous alloy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koprivica, Branko; Milovanovic, Alenka; Mitrovic, Nebojsa

2017-01-01

The aim of this paper is to present a novel mathematical model of frequency-dependent magnetic hysteresis. The major hysteresis loop in this model is represented by the ascending and descending curve over an arctangent function. The parameters of the hysteresis model have been calculated from a measured hysteresis loop of the FeBSiC amorphous alloy sample. A number of measurements have been performed with this sample at different frequencies of the sinusoidal excitation magnetic field. A variation of the coercive magnetic field with the frequency has been observed and used in the modelling of frequency-dependent hysteresis with the proposed model. A comparison between measured and modelled hysteresis loops has been presented. Additionally, the areas of the obtained hysteresis loops, representing the energy loss per unit volume, have been calculated and the dependence of the energy loss on the frequency is shown. Furthermore, two models of the frequency dependence of the coercivity and two models of the energy loss separation have been used for fitting the experimental and simulation results. The relations between these models and their parameters have been observed and analysed. Also, the relations between parameters of the hysteresis model and the parameters of the energy loss separation models have been analysed and discussed. - Highlights: • A mathematical model of frequency-dependent hysteresis is proposed. • Dependence of coercivity and energy loss per unit volume on frequency is modelled. • Equivalence between models and relation between model parameters are presented.

Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazaro, M.

1989-06-01

The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

Nuclear models to 200 MeV for high-energy data evaluations. Vol.12

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chadwick, M.; Reffo, G.; Dunford, C.L.; Oblozinsky, P.

1998-01-01

The work of the Nuclear Energy Agency's Subgroup 12 is described, which represents a collaborative effort to summarize the current status of nuclear reaction modelling codes and prioritize desired future model improvements. Nuclear reaction modelling codes that use appropriate physics in the energy region up to 200 MeV are the focus of this study, particularly those that have proved useful in nuclear data evaluation work. This study is relevant to developing needs in accelerator-driven technology programs, which require accurate nuclear data to high energies for enhanced radiation transport simulations to guide engineering design. (author)

An approach towards determining and assessing effects of innovations in energy supply by means of a combined energy and economy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buende, R.

1975-05-01

The energy system is represented as part of a national economy and analysed by means of the input-output technique. The development of a mathematical model based on two existing models using the same technique is described. This will allow the time behaviour of the energy system and the total system to be simulated and optimized for different objective functions and constraints. In addition, consequences of impacts on the system, e.g. the development of a new energy source such as the fusion reactor, can be shown. (orig.) [de

A Statistical and Spectral Model for Representing Noisy Sounds with Short-Time Sinusoids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myriam Desainte-Catherine

2005-07-01

Full Text Available We propose an original model for noise analysis, transformation, and synthesis: the CNSS model. Noisy sounds are represented with short-time sinusoids whose frequencies and phases are random variables. This spectral and statistical model represents information about the spectral density of frequencies. This perceptually relevant property is modeled by three mathematical parameters that define the distribution of the frequencies. This model also represents the spectral envelope. The mathematical parameters are defined and the analysis algorithms to extract these parameters from sounds are introduced. Then algorithms for generating sounds from the parameters of the model are presented. Applications of this model include tools for composers, psychoacoustic experiments, and pedagogy.

Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

Energy Models

Science.gov (United States)

Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé

2016-01-01

A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.

Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iniyan, S.; Suganthi, L.; Samuel, Anand A.

2006-01-01

In this paper, three models have been projected namely Modified Econometric Mathematical (MEM) model, Mathematical Programming Energy-Economy-Environment (MPEEE) model, and Optimal Renewable Energy Mathematical (OREM) model. The actual demand for coal, oil and electricity is predicted using the MEM model based on economic, technological and environmental factors. The results were used in the MPEEE model, which determines the optimum allocation of commercial energy sources based on environmental limitations. The gap between the actual energy demand from the MEM model and optimal energy use from the MPEEE model, has to be met by the renewable energy sources. The study develops an OREM model that would facilitate effective utilization of renewable energy sources in India, based on cost, efficiency, social acceptance, reliability, potential and demand. The economic variations in solar energy systems and inclusion of environmental constraint are also analyzed with OREM model. The OREM model will help policy makers in the formulation and implementation of strategies concerning renewable energy sources in India for the next two decades

Modelling electric trains energy consumption using Neural Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinez Fernandez, P.; Garcia Roman, C.; Insa Franco, R.

2016-07-01

Nowadays there is an evident concern regarding the efficiency and sustainability of the transport sector due to both the threat of climate change and the current financial crisis. This concern explains the growth of railways over the last years as they present an inherent efficiency compared to other transport means. However, in order to further expand their role, it is necessary to optimise their energy consumption so as to increase their competitiveness. Improving railways energy efficiency requires both reliable data and modelling tools that will allow the study of different variables and alternatives. With this need in mind, this paper presents the development of consumption models based on neural networks that calculate the energy consumption of electric trains. These networks have been trained based on an extensive set of consumption data measured in line 1 of the Valencia Metro Network. Once trained, the neural networks provide a reliable estimation of the vehicles consumption along a specific route when fed with input data such as train speed, acceleration or track longitudinal slope. These networks represent a useful modelling tool that may allow a deeper study of railway lines in terms of energy expenditure with the objective of reducing the costs and environmental impact associated to railways. (Author)

Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study

Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Blažica

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Kinetic energy spectra from the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model ALADIN with horizontal resolution 4.4 km are split into divergent and rotational components which are then compared at horizontal scales below 300 km and various vertical levels. It is shown that about 50% of kinetic energy in the free troposphere in ALADIN is divergent energy. The percentage increases towards 70% near the surface and in the upper troposphere towards 100 hPa. The maximal percentage of divergent energy is found at stratospheric levels around 100 hPa and at scales below 100 km which are not represented by the global models. At all levels, the divergent energy spectra are characterised by shallower slopes than the rotational energy spectra, and the difference increases as horizontal scales become larger. A very similar vertical distribution of divergent energy is obtained by using the standard ALADIN approach for the computation of spectra based on the extension zone and by applying detrending approach commonly used in mesoscale NWP community.

Optimization of Experimental Model Parameter Identification for Energy Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosario Morello

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The smart grid approach is envisioned to take advantage of all available modern technologies in transforming the current power system to provide benefits to all stakeholders in the fields of efficient energy utilisation and of wide integration of renewable sources. Energy storage systems could help to solve some issues that stem from renewable energy usage in terms of stabilizing the intermittent energy production, power quality and power peak mitigation. With the integration of energy storage systems into the smart grids, their accurate modeling becomes a necessity, in order to gain robust real-time control on the network, in terms of stability and energy supply forecasting. In this framework, this paper proposes a procedure to identify the values of the battery model parameters in order to best fit experimental data and integrate it, along with models of energy sources and electrical loads, in a complete framework which represents a real time smart grid management system. The proposed method is based on a hybrid optimisation technique, which makes combined use of a stochastic and a deterministic algorithm, with low computational burden and can therefore be repeated over time in order to account for parameter variations due to the battery’s age and usage.

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

2010-08-01

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

CrystalExplorer model energies and energy frameworks: extension to metal coordination compounds, organic salts, solvates and open-shell systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Campbell F. Mackenzie

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The application domain of accurate and efficient CE-B3LYP and CE-HF model energies for intermolecular interactions in molecular crystals is extended by calibration against density functional results for 1794 molecule/ion pairs extracted from 171 crystal structures. The mean absolute deviation of CE-B3LYP model energies from DFT values is a modest 2.4 kJ mol−1 for pairwise energies that span a range of 3.75 MJ mol−1. The new sets of scale factors determined by fitting to counterpoise-corrected DFT calculations result in minimal changes from previous energy values. Coupled with the use of separate polarizabilities for interactions involving monatomic ions, these model energies can now be applied with confidence to a vast number of molecular crystals. Energy frameworks have been enhanced to represent the destabilizing interactions that are important for molecules with large dipole moments and organic salts. Applications to a variety of molecular crystals are presented in detail to highlight the utility and promise of these tools.

Commercial demand for energy: a disaggregated approach. [Model validation for 1970-1975; forecasting to 2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jackson, J.R.; Cohn, S.; Cope, J.; Johnson, W.S.

1978-04-01

This report describes the structure and forecasting accuracy of a disaggregated model of commercial energy use recently developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The model forecasts annual commercial energy use by ten building types, five end uses, and four fuel types. Both economic (utilization rate, fuel choice, capital-energy substitution) and technological factors (equipment efficiency, thermal characteristics of buildings) are explicitly represented in the model. Model parameters are derived from engineering and econometric analysis. The model is then validated by simulating commercial energy use over the 1970--1975 time period. The model performs well both with respect to size of forecast error and ability to predict turning points. The model is then used to evaluate the energy-use implications of national commercial buildings standards based on the ASHRAE 90-75 recommendations. 10 figs., 12 tables, 14 refs.

Agent-based modeling of the energy network for hybrid cars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An approach to represent and calculate multicarrier energy networks has been developed. • It provides a modeling method based on agents, for multicarrier energy networks. • It allows the system representation on a single sheet. • Energy flows circulating in the system can be observed dynamically during simulation. • The method is technology independent. - Abstract: Studies in complex energy networks devoted to the modeling of electrical power grids, were extended in previous work, where a computational multi-layered ontology, implemented using agent-based methods, was adopted. This structure is compatible with recently introduced Multiplex Networks which using Multi-linear Algebra generalize some of classical results for single-layer networks, to multilayer networks in steady state. Static results do not assist overly in understanding dynamic networks in which the values of the variables in the nodes and edges can change suddenly, driven by events, and even where new nodes or edges may appear or disappear, also because of other events. To address this gap, a computational agent-based model is developed to extend the multi-layer and multiplex approaches. In order to demonstrate the benefits of a dynamical extension, a model of the energy network in a hybrid car is presented as a case study

Model parameters for representative wetland plant functional groups

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Amber S.; Kiniry, James R.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; McMurry, Scott T.; Attebury, Kelly; Lang, Megan; McCarty, Gregory W.; Shaffer, Jill A.; Effland, William R.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.

2017-01-01

Wetlands provide a wide variety of ecosystem services including water quality remediation, biodiversity refugia, groundwater recharge, and floodwater storage. Realistic estimation of ecosystem service benefits associated with wetlands requires reasonable simulation of the hydrology of each site and realistic simulation of the upland and wetland plant growth cycles. Objectives of this study were to quantify leaf area index (LAI), light extinction coefficient (k), and plant nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations in natural stands of representative plant species for some major plant functional groups in the United States. Functional groups in this study were based on these parameters and plant growth types to enable process-based modeling. We collected data at four locations representing some of the main wetland regions of the United States. At each site, we collected on-the-ground measurements of fraction of light intercepted, LAI, and dry matter within the 2013–2015 growing seasons. Maximum LAI and k variables showed noticeable variations among sites and years, while overall averages and functional group averages give useful estimates for multisite simulation modeling. Variation within each species gives an indication of what can be expected in such natural ecosystems. For P and K, the concentrations from highest to lowest were spikerush (Eleocharis macrostachya), reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea), smartweed (Polygonum spp.), cattail (Typha spp.), and hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus). Spikerush had the highest N concentration, followed by smartweed, bulrush, reed canary grass, and then cattail. These parameters will be useful for the actual wetland species measured and for the wetland plant functional groups they represent. These parameters and the associated process-based models offer promise as valuable tools for evaluating environmental benefits of wetlands and for evaluating impacts of various agronomic practices in

Development of a Representative Mouse Model with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeek, Jef; Jacobs, Ans; Spincemaille, Pieter; Cassiman, David

2016-06-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent liver disease in the Western world. It represents a disease spectrum ranging from isolated steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In particular, NASH can evolve to fibrosis, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver failure. The development of novel treatment strategies is hampered by the lack of representative NASH mouse models. Here, we describe a NASH mouse model, which is based on feeding non-genetically manipulated C57BL6/J mice a 'Western style' high-fat/high-sucrose diet (HF-HSD). HF-HSD leads to early obesity, insulin resistance, and hypercholesterolemia. After 12 weeks of HF-HSD, all mice exhibit the complete spectrum of features of NASH, including steatosis, hepatocyte ballooning, and lobular inflammation, together with fibrosis in the majority of mice. Hence, this model closely mimics the human disease. Implementation of this mouse model will lead to a standardized setup for the evaluation of (i) underlying mechanisms that contribute to the progression of NAFLD to NASH, and (ii) therapeutic interventions for NASH. © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Modelling low energy electron and positron tracks in biologically relevant media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanco, F.; Munoz, A.; Almeida, D.; Ferreira da Silva, F.; Limao-Vieira, P.; Fuss, M.C.; Sanz, A.G.; Garcia, G.

2013-01-01

This colloquium describes an approach to incorporate into radiation damage models the effect of low and intermediate energy (0-100 eV) electrons and positrons, slowing down in biologically relevant materials (water and representative biomolecules). The core of the modelling procedure is a C++ computing programme named 'Low Energy Particle Track Simulation (LEPTS)', which is compatible with available general purpose Monte Carlo packages. Input parameters are carefully selected from theoretical and experimental cross section data and energy loss distribution functions. Data sources used for this purpose are reviewed showing examples of electron and positron cross section and energy loss data for interactions with different media of increasing complexity: atoms, molecules, clusters and condense matter. Finally, we show how such a model can be used to develop an effective dosimetric tool at the molecular level (i.e. nanodosimetry). Recent experimental developments to study the fragmentation induced in biologically material by charge transfer from neutrals and negative ions are also included. (authors)

Coupled energy economic model framework for analyzing Swiss electricity markets in changing policy environments

OpenAIRE

Maire, Sophie

2016-01-01

Energy policy needs to rely on the proper understanding of the interactions between policy instruments, consumer preferences, investment behavior, market structure, electricity supply, and the wider policy environment. This asks for appropriate modeling tools, able to represent precisely electricity supply options, model all types of energy and climate policies, as well as the reactions of the rest of the economy. Chapter 2 describes the ELECTRA-CH framework, developed to analyze electrici...

Explicitly represented polygon wall boundary model for the explicit MPS method

Science.gov (United States)

Mitsume, Naoto; Yoshimura, Shinobu; Murotani, Kohei; Yamada, Tomonori

2015-05-01

This study presents an accurate and robust boundary model, the explicitly represented polygon (ERP) wall boundary model, to treat arbitrarily shaped wall boundaries in the explicit moving particle simulation (E-MPS) method, which is a mesh-free particle method for strong form partial differential equations. The ERP model expresses wall boundaries as polygons, which are explicitly represented without using the distance function. These are derived so that for viscous fluids, and with less computational cost, they satisfy the Neumann boundary condition for the pressure and the slip/no-slip condition on the wall surface. The proposed model is verified and validated by comparing computed results with the theoretical solution, results obtained by other models, and experimental results. Two simulations with complex boundary movements are conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the E-MPS method to the ERP model.

25 September 2012 - Signature of an Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, represented by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Chairman A. Parvez and CERN, represented by its Director-General R. Heuer.

CERN Multimedia

Maximilien Brice

2012-01-01

25 September 2012 - Signature of an Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, represented by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Chairman A. Parvez and CERN, represented by its Director-General R. Heuer.

Representing the environment 3.0. Maps, models, networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letizia Bollini

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Web 3.0 is changing the world we live and perceive the environment anthropomorphized, making a stratifation of levels of experience and mediated by the devices. If the urban landscape is designed, shaped and planned space, there is a social landscape that overwrite the territory of values, representations shared images, narratives of personal and collective history. Mobile technology introduces an additional parameter, a kind of non-place, which allows the coexistence of the here and elsewhere in an sort of digital landscape. The maps, mental models, the system of social networks become, then, the way to present, represented and represent themselves in a kind of ideal coring of the co-presence of levels of physical, cognitive and collective space.

Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengdong Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The energy-consuming pattern in this study represents the periodicity property of building energy consumption and can be extracted from the observed historical energy consumption data. The residual data generated by removing the energy-consuming pattern from the original data are utilized to train the modified DBN model. The training of the modified DBN includes two steps, the first one of which adopts the contrastive divergence (CD algorithm to optimize the hidden parameters in a pre-train way, while the second one determines the output weighting vector by the least squares method. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two kinds of building energy consumption data sets that have different energy-consuming patterns (daily-periodicity and weekly-periodicity. In order to examine the advantages of the proposed model, four popular artificial intelligence methods—the backward propagation neural network (BPNN, the generalized radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN, the extreme learning machine (ELM, and the support vector regressor (SVR are chosen as the comparative approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed DBN based hybrid model has the best performance compared with the comparative techniques. Another thing to be mentioned is that all the predictors constructed by utilizing the energy-consuming patterns perform better than those designed only by the original data. This verifies the usefulness of the incorporation of the energy-consuming patterns. The proposed approach can also be extended and applied to some other similar prediction problems that have periodicity patterns, e.g., the traffic flow forecasting and the electricity consumption

Energy models for the FRG

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voss, A.

1976-01-01

The development and application of energy models as helping factors in planning and decision making has gained more importance in all regions of energy economy and energy policy in recent times. This development not only covered models for the single branches and companies like, for example, for improving power plant systems, but also models showing the whole energy system. These models aim at analizing the possibilities of developing the energy supply with regard to aspects of the entire system, paying special attention to the integration of the energy system into economic and ecological side conditions. The following essay briefly explains the energy models developed for the Federal Republic of Germany after analizing the set of problems of energy and the demands on the energy planning methods arising from them. The energy model system developed by the programming team 'Systems research and technological development' of the nuclear research plant in Juelich is dealt with very intensively, explaining some model results as examples. Finally, the author gives his opinion on the problem of the integration and conversion of model studies in the process of decision making. (orig.) [de

Evaluating energy efficiency policies with energy-economy models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mundaca, L.; Neij, L.; Worrell, E.; McNeil, M.

2010-01-01

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems, and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically

The energy trilogy: An integrated sustainability model to bridge wastewater treatment plant energy and emissions gaps

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Talibi, A. Adhim

determination. The model was verified and showed a good agreement with billed and measured data from a base case study. In a next phase, a supplemental computational tool can be created for conducting plant energy design comparisons and plant energy and emissions parameters assessments. The main conclusions drawn from this research is that current approaches are severely limited, not covering plant's design phase and not fully considering the balance of energy consumed (EC), energy produced (EP) and the resulting CO2 e emission integration. Finally their results are not representative. This makes reported governmental and institutional national energy consumption figures incomplete and/or misleading, since they are mainly considering energy consumptions from electricity and some fuels or certain processes only. The distinction of the energy trilogy model over existing approaches is based on the following: (1) the ET energy model is unprecedented, prepared to fit WWTP energy assessment during the design and rehabilitation phases, (2) links the energy trilogy eliminating the need for using several models or tools, (3) removes the need for on-site expensive energy measurements or audits, (4) offers alternatives for energy optimization during plant's life-cycle, and (5) ensures reliable GHG emissions inventory reporting for permitting and regulatory compliance.

SPECIFIC MODELS OF REPRESENTING THE INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea Feraru

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Various scientists in the modern age of management have launched different models for evaluating intellectual capital, and some of these models are analysed critically in this study, too. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. In a spectral dynamic analysis, organisational intellectual capital is structured in: organisational knowledge, organisational intelligence, organisational values, and their value is built on certain mechanisms entitled integrators, whose chief constitutive elements are: individual knowledge, individual intelligence and individual cultural values. The organizations, as employers, must especially reconsider those employees’ work who value knowledge because they are free to choose how, and especially where they are inclined to invest their own energy, skills and time, and they can be treated as freelancers or as some little entrepreneurs .

Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sartori, Igor

2008-07-15

Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

Modeling and Simulation of Longitudinal Dynamics for Low Energy Ring-High Energy Ring at the Positron-Electron Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivetta, Claudio; Mastorides, T.; Fox, J.D.; Teytelman, D.; Van Winkle, D.

2007-01-01

A time domain dynamic modeling and simulation tool for beam-cavity interactions in the Low Energy Ring (LER) and High Energy Ring (HER) at the Positron-Electron Project (PEP-II) is presented. Dynamic simulation results for PEP-II are compared to measurements of the actual machine. The motivation for this tool is to explore the stability margins and performance limits of PEP-II radio-frequency (RF) systems at future higher currents and upgraded RF configurations. It also serves as a test bed for new control algorithms and can define the ultimate limits of the low-level RF (LLRF) architecture. The time domain program captures the dynamic behavior of the beam-cavity-LLRF interaction based on a reduced model. The ring current is represented by macrobunches. Multiple RF stations in the ring are represented via one or two macrocavities. Each macrocavity captures the overall behavior of all the 2 or 4 cavity RF stations. Station models include nonlinear elements in the klystron and signal processing. This enables modeling the principal longitudinal impedance control loops interacting via the longitudinal beam model. The dynamics of the simulation model are validated by comparing the measured growth rates for the LER with simulation results. The simulated behavior of the LER at increased operation currents is presented via low-mode instability growth rates. Different control strategies are compared and the effects of both the imperfections in the LLRF signal processing and the nonlinear drivers and klystrons are explored

Representing macropore flow at the catchment scale: a comparative modeling study

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, D.; Li, H. Y.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Macropore flow is an important hydrological process that generally enhances the soil infiltration capacity and velocity of subsurface water. Up till now, macropore flow is mostly simulated with high-resolution models. One possible drawback of this modeling approach is the difficulty to effectively represent the overall typology and connectivity of the macropore networks. We hypothesize that modeling macropore flow directly at the catchment scale may be complementary to the existing modeling strategy and offer some new insights. Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed model (THREW model) is a semi-distributed hydrology model, where the fundamental building blocks are representative elementary watersheds (REW) linked by the river channel network. In THREW, all the hydrological processes are described with constitutive relationships established directly at the REW level, i.e., catchment scale. In this study, the constitutive relationship of macropore flow drainage is established as part of THREW. The enhanced THREW model is then applied at two catchments with deep soils but distinct climates, the humid Asu catchment in the Amazon River basin, and the arid Wei catchment in the Yellow River basin. The Asu catchment has an area of 12.43km2 with mean annual precipitation of 2442mm. The larger Wei catchment has an area of 24800km2 but with mean annual precipitation of only 512mm. The rainfall-runoff processes are simulated at a hourly time step from 2002 to 2005 in the Asu catchment and from 2001 to 2012 in the Wei catchment. The role of macropore flow on the catchment hydrology will be analyzed comparatively over the Asu and Wei catchments against the observed streamflow, evapotranspiration and other auxiliary data.

P50/P90 Analysis for Solar Energy Systems Using the System Advisor Model: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dobos, A. P.; Gilman, P.; Kasberg, M.

2012-06-01

To secure competitive financing for a solar energy generation project, the economic risk associated with interannual solar resource variability must be quantified. One way to quantify this risk is to calculate exceedance probabilities representing the amount of energy expected to be produced by a plant. Many years of solar radiation and metereological data are required to determine these values, often called P50 or P90 values for the level of certainty they represent. This paper describes the two methods implemented in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) to calculate P50 and P90 exceedance probabilities for solar energy projects. The methodology and supporting data sets are applicable to photovoltaic, solar water heating, and concentrating solar power (CSP) systems.

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Energy models: methods and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reuter, A [Division of Energy Management and Planning, Verbundplan, Klagenfurt (Austria); Kuehner, R [IER Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart (Germany); Wohlgemuth, N [Department of Economy, University of Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt (Austria)

1997-12-31

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of `energy models`, computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning. 2 figs., 19 refs.

Energy models: methods and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reuter, A.; Kuehner, R.; Wohlgemuth, N.

1996-01-01

Energy environmental and economical systems do not allow for experimentation since this would be dangerous, too expensive or even impossible. Instead, mathematical models are applied for energy planning. Experimenting is replaced by varying the structure and some parameters of 'energy models', computing the values of depending parameters, comparing variations, and interpreting their outcomings. Energy models are as old as computers. In this article the major new developments in energy modeling will be pointed out. We distinguish between 3 reasons of new developments: progress in computer technology, methodological progress and novel tasks of energy system analysis and planning

A constitutive model for representing coupled creep, fracture, and healing in rock salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, K.S.; Bodner, S.R.; Munson, D.E.; Fossum, A.F.

1996-01-01

The development of a constitutive model for representing inelastic flow due to coupled creep, damage, and healing in rock salt is present in this paper. This model, referred to as Multimechanism Deformation Coupled Fracture model, has been formulated by considering individual mechanisms that include dislocation creep, shear damage, tensile damage, and damage healing. Applications of the model to representing the inelastic flow and fracture behavior of WIPP salt subjected to creep, quasi-static loading, and damage healing conditions are illustrated with comparisons of model calculations against experimental creep curves, stress-strain curves, strain recovery curves, time-to-rupture data, and fracture mechanism maps

Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

2016-04-01

/generation, transmission, distribution, and finally, end energy use. Although each step clearly impacts upon natural capital, links to the natural environment are rarely identified or quantified within energy research. In short, the respective conceptual frameworks guiding ecosystem service and energy research are not well integrated. Major knowledge and research gaps appear at the system boundaries: while energy models may mention flows of residuals, exploring where exactly these flows enter the environment, and how they impact ecosystems and natural capital is often considered to be 'outside the system boundary'. While integrated modelling represents the frontier of ecosystem service research, current efforts largely ignore the future energy pathways set out by energy systems models and government carbon targets. This disconnect means that policy-oriented research on how best to (i) maintain natural capital and (ii) meet specific climate targets may be poorly aligned, or worse, offer conflicting advice. We present a re-imagined version of the ecosystem services conceptual framework, in which emphasis is placed on interactions between energy systems and the natural environment. Using the UK as a case study, we employ a recent integrated environmental-economic ecosystem service model, TIM, developed by Bateman et al (2014) and energy pathways developed by the UK Energy Research Centre and the UK Government Committee on Climate Change to illustrate how the new conceptual framework might apply in real world applications.

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

2007-01-01

Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements

Cosmological effects of a class of fluid dark energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carturan, Daniela; Finelli, Fabio

2003-01-01

We study the impact of a generalized Chaplygin gas as a candidate for dark energy on density perturbations and on cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. The generalized Chaplygin gas is a fluid component with an exotic equation of state p=-A/ρ α (a polytropic gas with negative constant and exponent). Such a component interpolates in time between dust and a cosmological constant, with an intermediate behavior as p=A 1/(1+α) +αρ. Perturbations of this fluid are stable on small scales but behave in a very different way with respect to standard quintessence. Moreover, a generalized Chaplygin gas could also represent an archetypal example of the phenomenological unified models of dark energy and dark matter. The results presented here show how CMB anisotropies and density perturbations in this class of models differ from those of a cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant

A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Neary, Vincent S.; Wang, Taiping; Gunawan, Budi; Dallman, Annie R.; Wu, Wei-Cheng

2017-12-01

This paper presents a test bed study conducted to evaluate best practices in wave modeling to characterize energy resources. The model test bed off the central Oregon Coast was selected because of the high wave energy and available measured data at the site. Two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII, were evaluated. A four-level nested-grid approach—from global to test bed scale—was employed. Model skills were assessed using a set of model performance metrics based on comparing six simulated wave resource parameters to observations from a wave buoy inside the test bed. Both WWIII and SWAN performed well at the test bed site and exhibited similar modeling skills. The ST4 package with WWIII, which represents better physics for wave growth and dissipation, out-performed ST2 physics and improved wave power density and significant wave height predictions. However, ST4 physics tended to overpredict the wave energy period. The newly developed ST6 physics did not improve the overall model skill for predicting the six wave resource parameters. Sensitivity analysis using different wave frequencies and direction resolutions indicated the model results were not sensitive to spectral resolutions at the test bed site, likely due to the absence of complex bathymetric and geometric features.

Energy exchange in thermal energy atom-surface scattering: impulsive models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, J.A.; Auerbach, D.J.

1979-01-01

Energy exchange in thermal energy atom surface collisions is studied using impulsive ('hard cube' and 'hard sphere') models. Both models reproduce the observed nearly linear relation between outgoing and incoming energies. In addition, the hard-sphere model accounts for the widths of the outcoming energy distributions. (Auth.)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. Subsequent chapters of this report provide: an overview of NGTDM; a description of the interface between the NEMS and NGTDM; an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM; the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module; the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module; the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module; the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module; and a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs.

Brazilian energy model

Science.gov (United States)

1981-05-01

A summary of the energy situation in Brazil is presented. Energy consumption rates, reserves of primary energy, and the basic needs and strategies for meeting energy self sufficiency are discussed. Conserving energy, increasing petroleum production, and utilizing other domestic energy products and petroleum by-products are discussed. Specific programs are described for the development and use of alcohol fuels, wood and charcoal, coal, schist, solar and geothermal energy, power from the sea, fresh biomass, special batteries, hydrogen, vegetable oil, and electric energy from water power, nuclear, and coal. Details of the energy model for 1985 are given. Attention is also given to the energy demands and the structure of global energy from 1975 to 1985.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

Forecasting optimal solar energy supply in Jiangsu Province (China): a systematic approach using hybrid of weather and energy forecast models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiuli; Asante Antwi, Henry; Yiranbon, Ethel

2014-01-01

The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, "least-cost," and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.

Forecasting Optimal Solar Energy Supply in Jiangsu Province (China: A Systematic Approach Using Hybrid of Weather and Energy Forecast Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuli Zhao

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost,” and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.

Combining 3d Volume and Mesh Models for Representing Complicated Heritage Buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, F.; Chang, H.; Lin, Y.-W.

2017-08-01

This study developed a simple but effective strategy to combine 3D volume and mesh models for representing complicated heritage buildings and structures. The idea is to seamlessly integrate 3D parametric or polyhedral models and mesh-based digital surfaces to generate a hybrid 3D model that can take advantages of both modeling methods. The proposed hybrid model generation framework is separated into three phases. Firstly, after acquiring or generating 3D point clouds of the target, these 3D points are partitioned into different groups. Secondly, a parametric or polyhedral model of each group is generated based on plane and surface fitting algorithms to represent the basic structure of that region. A "bare-bones" model of the target can subsequently be constructed by connecting all 3D volume element models. In the third phase, the constructed bare-bones model is used as a mask to remove points enclosed by the bare-bones model from the original point clouds. The remaining points are then connected to form 3D surface mesh patches. The boundary points of each surface patch are identified and these boundary points are projected onto the surfaces of the bare-bones model. Finally, new meshes are created to connect the projected points and original mesh boundaries to integrate the mesh surfaces with the 3D volume model. The proposed method was applied to an open-source point cloud data set and point clouds of a local historical structure. Preliminary results indicated that the reconstructed hybrid models using the proposed method can retain both fundamental 3D volume characteristics and accurate geometric appearance with fine details. The reconstructed hybrid models can also be used to represent targets in different levels of detail according to user and system requirements in different applications.

Mathematical Modeling of Oscillating Water Columns Wave-Structure Interaction in Ocean Energy Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aitor J. Garrido

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Oscillating Water Column (OWC-based power take-off systems are one of the potential solutions to the current energy problems arising from the use of nuclear fission and the consumption of fossil fuels. This kind of energy converter turns wave energy into electric power by means of three different stages: firstly wave energy is transformed into pneumatic energy in the OWC chamber, and then a turbine turns it into mechanical energy and finally the turbogenerator module attached to the turbine creates electric power from the rotational mechanical energy. To date, capture chambers have been the least studied part. In this context, this paper presents an analytical model describing the dynamic behavior of the capture chamber, encompassing the wave motion and its interaction with the OWC structure and turbogenerator module. The model is tested for the case of the Mutriku wave power plant by means of experimental results. For this purpose, representative case studies are selected from wave and pressure drop input-output data. The results show an excellent matching rate between the values predicted by the model and the experimental measured data with a small bounded error in all cases, so that the validity of the proposed model is proven.

National Energy Outlook Modelling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Volkers, C.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-12-15

For over 20 years, the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) has been developing the National Energy Outlook Modelling System (NEOMS) for Energy projections and policy evaluations. NEOMS enables 12 energy models of ECN to exchange data and produce consistent and detailed results.

Analysis of Mental Processes Represented in Models of Artificial Consciousness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luana Folchini da Costa

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The Artificial Consciousness concept has been used in the engineering area as being an evolution of the Artificial Intelligence. However, consciousness is a complex subject and often used without formalism. As a main contribution, in this work one proposes an analysis of four recent models of artificial consciousness published in the engineering area. The mental processes represented by these models are highlighted and correlations with the theoretical perspective of cognitive psychology are made. Finally, considerations about consciousness in such models are discussed.

Software for energy modelling: a theoretical basis for improvements in the user interface

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siu, Y.L.

1989-09-01

A philosophical critique of the relationships between theory, knowledge and practice for a range of existing energy modelling styles is presented. In particular, Habermas's ideas are invoked regarding the three spheres of cognitive interest (i.e. technical, practical and emancipatory) and three levels of understanding of knowledge, the construction of an 'ideal speech situation', and the theory of communicative competence and action. These are adopted as a basis for revealing shortcomings of a representative selection of existing computer-based energy modelling styles, and as a springboard for constructing a new theoretical approach. (author).

Productivity of "collisions generate heat" for reconciling an energy model with mechanistic reasoning: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Scherr, Rachel E.; Robertson, Amy D.

2015-06-01

We observe teachers in professional development courses about energy constructing mechanistic accounts of energy transformations. We analyze a case in which teachers investigating adiabatic compression develop a model of the transformation of kinetic energy to thermal energy. Among their ideas is the idea that thermal energy is generated as a byproduct of individual particle collisions, which is represented in science education research literature as an obstacle to learning. We demonstrate that in this instructional context, the idea that individual particle collisions generate thermal energy is not an obstacle to learning, but instead is productive: it initiates intellectual progress. Specifically, this idea initiates the reconciliation of the teachers' energy model with mechanistic reasoning about adiabatic compression, and leads to a canonically correct model of the transformation of kinetic energy into thermal energy. We claim that the idea's productivity is influenced by features of our particular instructional context, including the instructional goals of the course, the culture of collaborative sense making, and the use of certain representations of energy.

Development of integrated models for energy-economy systems analysis at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasukawa, Shigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Sato, Osamu; Yonese, Hiromi

1984-08-01

This report, being a revision of the preprint for distribution to participants at IEA/ETSAP Workshop held, at JAERI, Tokyo, March 1984, describes the concept of the integrated models for energy-economy systems analysis now being carried out at JAERI. In this model system, there contains four different categories of computer codes. The first one is a series of computer codes named as E 3 -SD representatively, which are utilized to develop a dynamic scenario generation in a long-term energy economy evolution. The second one, of which the main constituents are the MARKAL, i.e. an optimal energy flow analizer, and the TRANS-I/O, i.e. a multi-sectoral economy analyzer, has been developed for the analysis of structural characteristics embodied in our energy-economy system. The third one is for a strategy analysis on nuclear power reactor installation and fuel cycle development, and its main constituent is the JALTES. The fourth one is for a cost-benefit-risk analysis including various kinds of data bases. As the model system being still under development, but the idea of application of it to such a problem as '' the role of the HTGR in the prospects of future energy supply'' is also explained in the report. (author)

Can Geostatistical Models Represent Nature's Variability? An Analysis Using Flume Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Scheidt, C.; Fernandes, A. M.; Paola, C.; Caers, J.

2015-12-01

The lack of understanding in the Earth's geological and physical processes governing sediment deposition render subsurface modeling subject to large uncertainty. Geostatistics is often used to model uncertainty because of its capability to stochastically generate spatially varying realizations of the subsurface. These methods can generate a range of realizations of a given pattern - but how representative are these of the full natural variability? And how can we identify the minimum set of images that represent this natural variability? Here we use this minimum set to define the geostatistical prior model: a set of training images that represent the range of patterns generated by autogenic variability in the sedimentary environment under study. The proper definition of the prior model is essential in capturing the variability of the depositional patterns. This work starts with a set of overhead images from an experimental basin that showed ongoing autogenic variability. We use the images to analyze the essential characteristics of this suite of patterns. In particular, our goal is to define a prior model (a minimal set of selected training images) such that geostatistical algorithms, when applied to this set, can reproduce the full measured variability. A necessary prerequisite is to define a measure of variability. In this study, we measure variability using a dissimilarity distance between the images. The distance indicates whether two snapshots contain similar depositional patterns. To reproduce the variability in the images, we apply an MPS algorithm to the set of selected snapshots of the sedimentary basin that serve as training images. The training images are chosen from among the initial set by using the distance measure to ensure that only dissimilar images are chosen. Preliminary investigations show that MPS can reproduce fairly accurately the natural variability of the experimental depositional system. Furthermore, the selected training images provide

Sensitivity analysis and comparison of two methods of using heart rate to represent energy expenditure during walking.

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, Mohammad Taghi

2015-01-01

Heart rate is an accurate and easy to use method to represent the energy expenditure during walking, based on physiological cost index (PCI). However, in some conditions the heart rate during walking does not reach to a steady state. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the energy expenditure by use of the PCI index. The total heart beat index (THBI) is a new method to solve the aforementioned problem. The aim of this research project was to find the sensitivity of both the physiological cost index (PCI) and total heart beat index (THBI). Fifteen normal subjects and ten patients with flatfoot disorder and two subjects with spinal cord injury were recruited in this research project. The PCI and THBI indexes were determined by use of heart beats with respect to walking speed and total distance walked, respectively. The sensitivity of PCI was more than that of THBI index in the three groups of subjects. Although the PCI and THBI indexes are easy to use and reliable parameters to represent the energy expenditure during walking, their sensitivity is not high to detect the influence of some orthotic interventions, such as use of insoles or using shoes on energy expenditure during walking.

Representative Model of the Learning Process in Virtual Spaces Supported by ICT

Science.gov (United States)

Capacho, José

2014-01-01

This paper shows the results of research activities for building the representative model of the learning process in virtual spaces (e-Learning). The formal basis of the model are supported in the analysis of models of learning assessment in virtual spaces and specifically in Dembo´s teaching learning model, the systemic approach to evaluating…

Simulation model of stratified thermal energy storage tank using finite difference method

Science.gov (United States)

Waluyo, Joko

2016-06-01

Stratified TES tank is normally used in the cogeneration plant. The stratified TES tanks are simple, low cost, and equal or superior in thermal performance. The advantage of TES tank is that it enables shifting of energy usage from off-peak demand for on-peak demand requirement. To increase energy utilization in a stratified TES tank, it is required to build a simulation model which capable to simulate the charging phenomenon in the stratified TES tank precisely. This paper is aimed to develop a novel model in addressing the aforementioned problem. The model incorporated chiller into the charging of stratified TES tank system in a closed system. The model was developed in one-dimensional type involve with heat transfer aspect. The model covers the main factors affect to degradation of temperature distribution namely conduction through the tank wall, conduction between cool and warm water, mixing effect on the initial flow of the charging as well as heat loss to surrounding. The simulation model is developed based on finite difference method utilizing buffer concept theory and solved in explicit method. Validation of the simulation model is carried out using observed data obtained from operating stratified TES tank in cogeneration plant. The temperature distribution of the model capable of representing S-curve pattern as well as simulating decreased charging temperature after reaching full condition. The coefficient of determination values between the observed data and model obtained higher than 0.88. Meaning that the model has capability in simulating the charging phenomenon in the stratified TES tank. The model is not only capable of generating temperature distribution but also can be enhanced for representing transient condition during the charging of stratified TES tank. This successful model can be addressed for solving the limitation temperature occurs in charging of the stratified TES tank with the absorption chiller. Further, the stratified TES tank can be

Energy modelling in sensor networks

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, D.; Krämer, M.; Kuhn, T.; Wehn, N.

2007-06-01

Wireless sensor networks are one of the key enabling technologies for the vision of ambient intelligence. Energy resources for sensor nodes are very scarce. A key challenge is the design of energy efficient communication protocols. Models of the energy consumption are needed to accurately simulate the efficiency of a protocol or application design, and can also be used for automatic energy optimizations in a model driven design process. We propose a novel methodology to create models for sensor nodes based on few simple measurements. In a case study the methodology was used to create models for MICAz nodes. The models were integrated in a simulation environment as well as in a SDL runtime framework of a model driven design process. Measurements on a test application that was created automatically from an SDL specification showed an 80% reduction in energy consumption compared to an implementation without power saving strategies.

Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Varela, M.

2001-07-01

The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

Simplified life cycle assessment models: methodological framework and applications to energy pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padey, Pierryves

2013-01-01

The energy transition debate is a key issue for today and the coming years. One of the challenges is to limit the environmental impacts of electricity production. Decision support tools, sufficiently accurate, simple to use, accounting for environmental aspects and favoring future energetic choices, must be implemented. However, the environmental assessment of the energy pathways is complex, and it means considering a two levels characterization. The 'energy pathway' is the first level and corresponds to its environmental distribution, to compare overall pathways. The 'system pathway' is the 2. level and compares environmental impacts of systems within each pathway. We have devised a generic methodology covering both necessary characterization levels by estimating the energy pathways environmental profiles while allowing a simple comparison of its systems environmental impacts. This methodology is based on the definition of a parameterized Life Cycle Assessment model and considers, through a Global Sensitivity Analysis, the environmental impacts of a large sample of systems representative of an energy pathway. As a second step, this methodology defines simplified models based on few key parameters identified as inducing the largest variability in the energy pathway environmental impacts. These models assess in a simple way the systems environmental impacts, avoiding any complex LCAs. This reduction methodology has been applied to the onshore wind power energy pathway in Europe and the photovoltaic energy pathway in France. (author)

Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, Hendrik

2007-12-01

This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

UK energy policy ambition and UK energy modelling-fit for purpose?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Aiming to lead amongst other G20 countries, the UK government has classified the twin energy policy priorities of decarbonisation and security of supply as a 'centennial challenge'. This viewpoint discusses the UK's capacity for energy modelling and scenario building as a critical underpinning of iterative decision making to meet these policy ambitions. From a nadir, over the last decade UK modelling expertise has been steadily built up. However extreme challenges remain in the level and consistency of funding of core model teams - critical to ensure a full scope of energy model types and hence insights, and in developing new state-of-the-art models to address evolving uncertainties. Meeting this challenge will facilitate a broad scope of types and geographical scale of UK's analytical tools to responsively deliver the evidence base for a range of public and private sector decision makers, and ensure that the UK contributes to global efforts to advance the field of energy-economic modelling. - Research highlights: → Energy modelling capacity is a critical underpinning for iterative energy policy making. → Full scope of energy models and analytical approaches is required. → Extreme challenges remain in consistent and sustainable funding of energy modelling teams. → National governments that lead in global energy policy also need to invest in modelling capacity.

The multi-factor energy input–output model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago

2017-01-01

Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.

Energy centre microgrid model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasonen, R.

2011-09-15

A simulation model of Energy centre microgrid made with PSCAD simulation software version 4.2.1 has been built in SGEM Smart Grids and Energy Markets (SGEM) work package 6.6. Microgrid is an autonomous electric power system which can operate separate from common distribution system. The idea of energy centre microgrid concept was considered in Master of Science thesis 'Community Microgrid - A Building block of Finnish Smart Grid'. The name of energy centre microgrid comes from a fact that production and storage units are concentrated into a single location, an energy centre. This centre feeds the loads which can be households or industrial loads. Power direction flow on the demand side remains same compared to the current distribution system and allows to the use of standard fuse protection in the system. The model consists of photovoltaic solar array, battery unit, variable frequency boost converter, inverter, isolation transformer and demand side (load) model. The model is capable to automatically switch to islanded mode when there is a fault in outside grid and back to parallel operation mode when fault is removed. The modelled system responses well to load changes and total harmonic distortion related to 50Hz base frequency is kept under 1.5% while operating and feeding passive load. (orig.)

Energy paradox and political intervention: A stochastic model for the case of electrical equipments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jridi, Omar; Jridi, Maher; Barguaoui, Saoussen Aguir; Nouri, Fethi Zouheir

2016-01-01

This paper develops a model that explains the delay of decisions to adopt profitable energy-saving investments. This problem is known as the energy paradox. The model rationalizes the profitability requirements raised by the irreversibility, the uncertainty and the decrease of costs as a result of learning by doing. In this context, the wait gives investors more visibility and more lower investment costs, which gives them an option value. The representative agent has an interest to postpone its energy saving decision until future benefits increase and equalize its required option value. Formally, we internalize these explanatory factors in a stochastic model where the updated energy saving benefits follows a geometric Brownian motion. To affirm the capacity of the model, we generate simulation results for two equipments for electrical uses. Beyond that, we extend the model to simulate the effects of energy policy instruments to promote adoption of such equipments. Simulations prove that the taxation of energy prices is likely to be more effective than the subsidy for energy-saving equipments. It is also found that the combination of these instruments amplifies the adoption of energy-saving equipments and generates very favorable economic and environmental externalities. - Highlights: •We develop a stochastic model that explains and solves the energy paradox. •Agent postpones the energy-saving investments to maximize its option value. •Option value is fueled by uncertainty, irreversibility and learning by doing. •Subsidies of these investments are less effective than energy taxation. •Mixed instrument policy solves this paradox and generates favorable externalities.

A simple dynamic energy capacity model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gander, James P.

2012-01-01

I develop a simple dynamic model showing how total energy capacity is allocated to two different uses and how these uses and their corresponding energy flows are related and behave through time. The control variable of the model determines the allocation. All the variables of the model are in terms of a composite energy equivalent measured in BTU's. A key focus is on the shadow price of energy capacity and its behavior through time. Another key focus is on the behavior of the control variable that determines the allocation of overall energy capacity. The matching or linking of the model's variables to real world U.S. energy data is undertaken. In spite of some limitations of the data, the model and its behavior fit the data fairly well. Some energy policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► The model shows how energy capacity is allocated to current output production versus added energy capacity production. ► Two variables in the allocation are the shadow price of capacity and the control variable that determines the allocation. ► The model was linked to U.S. historical energy data and fit the data quite well. ► In particular, the policy control variable was cyclical and consistent with the model. ► Policy implications relevant to the allocation of energy capacity are discussed briefly.

Singularities and Entropy in Bulk Viscosity Dark Energy Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng Xinhe; Dou Xu

2011-01-01

In this paper bulk viscosity is introduced to describe the effects of cosmic non-perfect fluid on the cosmos evolution and to build the unified dark energy (DE) with (dark) matter models. Also we derive a general relation between the bulk viscosity form and Hubble parameter that can provide a procedure for the viscosity DE model building. Especially, a redshift dependent viscosity parameter ζ ∝ λ 0 + λ 1 (1 + z) n proposed in the previous work [X.H. Meng and X. Dou, Commun. Theor. Phys. 52 (2009) 377] is investigated extensively in this present work. Further more we use the recently released supernova dataset (the Constitution dataset) to constrain the model parameters. In order to differentiate the proposed concrete dark energy models from the well known ΛCDM model, statefinder diagnostic method is applied to this bulk viscosity model, as a complementary to the Om parameter diagnostic and the deceleration parameter analysis performed by us before. The DE model evolution behavior and tendency are shown in the plane of the statefinder diagnostic parameter pair {r, s} as axes where the fixed point represents the ΛCDM model. The possible singularity property in this bulk viscosity cosmology is also discussed to which we can conclude that in the different parameter regions chosen properly, this concrete viscosity DE model can have various late evolution behaviors and the late time singularity could be avoided. We also calculate the cosmic entropy in the bulk viscosity dark energy frame, and find that the total entropy in the viscosity DE model increases monotonously with respect to the scale factor evolution, thus this monotonous increasing property can indicate an arrow of time in the universe evolution, though the quantum version of the arrow of time is still very puzzling. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Modeling energy fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes employing a mosaic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

2015-04-01

Recent studies show that uncertainties in regional and global climate and weather simulations are partly due to inadequate descriptions of the energy flux exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. One major shortcoming is the limitation of the grid-cell resolution, which is recommended to be about at least 3x3 km² in most models due to limitations in the model physics. To represent each individual grid cell most models select one dominant soil type and one dominant land use type. This resolution, however, is often too coarse in regions where the spatial diversity of soil and land use types are high, e.g. in Central Europe. An elegant method to avoid the shortcoming of grid cell resolution is the so called mosaic approach. This approach is part of the recently developed ecosystem model framework Expert-N 5.0. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the characteristics of two managed fields, planted with winter wheat and potato, on the near surface soil moistures and on the near surface energy flux exchanges of the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. The simulated energy fluxes were compared with eddy flux tower measurements between the respective fields at the research farm Scheyern, North-West of Munich, Germany. To perform these simulations, we coupled the ecosystem model Expert-N 5.0 to an analytical footprint model. The coupled model system has the ability to calculate the mixing ratio of the surface energy fluxes at a given point within one grid cell (in this case at the flux tower between the two fields). This approach accounts for the differences of the two soil types, of land use managements, and of canopy properties due to footprint size dynamics. Our preliminary simulation results show that a mosaic approach can improve modeling and analyzing energy fluxes when the land surface is heterogeneous. In this case our applied method is a promising approach to extend weather and climate models on the regional and on the global scale.

Energy modelling and capacity building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on building analytical capacity in MS for energy-environmental-economic assessments and for the elaboration of sustainable energy strategies. It offers a variety of analytical models specifically designed for use in developing countries for (i) evaluating alternative energy strategies; (ii) assessing environmental, economic and financial impacts of energy options; (iii) assessing infrastructure needs; (iv) evaluating regional development possibilities and energy trade; (v) assessing the role of nuclear power in addressing priority issues (climate change, energy security, etc.). These models can be used for analysing energy or electricity systems, and to assess possible implications of different energy, environmental or financial policies that affect the energy sector and energy systems. The models vary in complexity and data requirements, and so can be adapted to the available data, statistics and analytical needs of different countries. These models are constantly updated to reflect changes in the real world and in the concerns that drive energy system choices. They can provide thoughtfully informed choices for policy makers over a broader range of circumstances and interests. For example, they can readily reflect the workings of competitive energy and electricity markets, and cover such topics as external costs. The IAEA further offers training in the use of these models and -just as important- in the interpretation and critical evaluation of results. Training of national teams to develop national competence over the full spectrum of models, is a high priority. The IAEA maintains a broad spectrum of databanks relevant to energy, economic and environmental analysis in MS, and make these data available to analysts in MS for use in their own analytical work. The Reference Technology Data Base (RTDB) and the Reference Data Series (RDS-1) are the major vehicles by which we

New Energy Utility Business Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, V.

2016-01-01

Recently a lot of big changes happened in the power sector: energy efficiency and renewable energy sources are quickly progressing, distributed or decentralised generation of electricity is expanding, climate change requires reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and price volatility and incertitude of fossil fuel supply is common. Those changes have led to obsolescence of vertically integrated business models which have dominated in energy utility organisations for a hundred years and new business models are being introduced. Those models take into account current changes in the power sector and enable a wider application of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially for consumers, with the decentralisation of electricity generation and complying with the requirements of climate and environment preservation. New business models also solve the questions of financial compensations for utilities because of the reduction of centralised energy generation while contributing to local development and employment.(author).

Extended wave-packet model to calculate energy-loss moments of protons in matter

Science.gov (United States)

Archubi, C. D.; Arista, N. R.

2017-12-01

In this work we introduce modifications to the wave-packet method proposed by Kaneko to calculate the energy-loss moments of a projectile traversing a target which is represented in terms of Gaussian functions for the momentum distributions of electrons in the atomic shells. These modifications are introduced using the Levine and Louie technique to take into account the energy gaps corresponding to the different atomic levels of the target. We use the extended wave-packet model to evaluate the stopping power, the energy straggling, the inverse mean free path, and the ionization cross sections for protons in several targets, obtaining good agreements for all these quantities on an extensive energy range that covers low-, intermediate-, and high-energy regions. The extended wave-packet model proposed here provides a method to calculate in a very straightforward way all the significant terms of the inelastic interaction of light ions with any element of the periodic table.

Energy-Water Modeling and Impacts at Urban and Infrastructure Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, F.; Pullen, J. D.; Schoonen, M. A.; Gonzalez, J.; Bhatt, V.; Fellows, J. D.

2017-12-01

We converge multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral modeling and data analysis tools on an urban watershed to examine the feedbacks of concentrated and connected infrastructure on the environment. Our focus area is the Lower Hudson River Basin (LHRB). The LHRB captures long-term and short- term energy/water stressors as it represents: 1) a coastal environment subject to sea level rise that is among the fastest in the East impacted by a wide array of various storms; 2) one of the steepest gradients in population density in the US, with Manhattan the most densely populated coastal county in the nation; 3) energy/water infrastructure serving the largest metropolitan area in the US; 4) a history of environmental impacts, ranging from heatwaves to hurricanes, that can be used to hindcast; and 5) a wealth of historic and real-time data, extensive monitoring facilities and existing specific sector models that can be leveraged. We detail two case studies on "water infrastructure and stressors", and "heatwaves and energy-water demands." The impact of a hypothetical failure of Oradell Dam (on the Hackensack River, a tributary of the Hudson River) coincident with a hurricane, and urban power demands under current and future heat waves are examined with high-resolution (meter to km scale) earth system models to illustrate energy water nexus issues where detailed predictions can shape response and mitigation strategies.

Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

1991-01-01

Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

Total energy calculations from self-energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez-Friera, P.

2001-06-01

Density-functional theory is a powerful method to calculate total energies of large systems of interacting electrons. The usefulness of this method, however, is limited by the fact that an approximation is required for the exchange-correlation energy. Currently used approximations (LDA and GGA) are not sufficiently accurate in many physical problems, as for instance the study of chemical reactions. It has been shown that exchange-correlation effects can be accurately described via the self-energy operator in the context of many-body perturbation theory. This is, however, a computationally very demanding approach. In this thesis a new scheme for calculating total energies is proposed, which combines elements from many-body perturbation theory and density-functional theory. The exchange-correlation energy functional is built from a simplified model of the self-energy, that nevertheless retains the main features of the exact operator. The model is built in such way that the computational effort is not significantly increased with respect to that required in a typical density-functional theory calculation. (author)

Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

Energy and environmental evaluation of tri-generation energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chicco, G.; Mancarella, P.

2008-01-01

Tri generation facilities manufactured with various technologies represent an important alternative solution for the development more efficient energy systems and low environmental impact. Are described the issues related to modelling and energy and environmental evaluation [it

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; Xie, Yulong; Kraucunas, Ian

2018-01-01

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

Development of surrogate models using artificial neural network for building shell energy labelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melo, A.P.; Cóstola, D.; Lamberts, R.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2014-01-01

Surrogate models are an important part of building energy labelling programs, but these models still present low accuracy, particularly in cooling-dominated climates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using an artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the accuracy of surrogate models for labelling purposes. An ANN was applied to model the building stock of a city in Brazil, based on the results of extensive simulations using the high-resolution building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out to evaluate the behaviour of the ANN model, and the variations in the best and worst performance for several typologies were analysed in relation to variations in the input parameters and building characteristics. The results obtained indicate that an ANN can represent the interaction between input and output data for a vast and diverse building stock. Sensitivity analysis showed that no single input parameter can be identified as the main factor responsible for the building energy performance. The uncertainty associated with several parameters plays a major role in assessing building energy performance, together with the facade area and the shell-to-floor ratio. The results of this study may have a profound impact as ANNs could be applied in the future to define regulations in many countries, with positive effects on optimizing the energy consumption. - Highlights: • We model several typologies which have variation in input parameters. • We evaluate the accuracy of surrogate models for labelling purposes. • ANN is applied to model the building stock. • Uncertainty in building plays a major role in the building energy performance. • Results show that ANN could help to develop building energy labelling systems

Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

Science.gov (United States)

Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

Agent-based model of intermittent renewables : Simulating emerging changes in energy markets in transition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chappin, E.J.L.; Viebahn, P.; Richstein, J.C.; Lechtenböhmer, S.; Nebel, A.

2012-01-01

The energy transition is taking shape in the German and, to a lesser extent also its neighbouring electricity markets. We have proposed adaptations to an existing model to represent the increasing shares of intermittent renewables, that may alter the structure of the market and the viability of

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Effective dark energy equation of state in interacting dark energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avelino, P.P.; Silva, H.M.R. da

2012-01-01

In models where dark matter and dark energy interact non-minimally, the total amount of matter in a fixed comoving volume may vary from the time of recombination to the present time due to energy transfer between the two components. This implies that, in interacting dark energy models, the fractional matter density estimated using the cosmic microwave background assuming no interaction between dark matter and dark energy will in general be shifted with respect to its true value. This may result in an incorrect determination of the equation of state of dark energy if the interaction between dark matter and dark energy is not properly accounted for, even if the evolution of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift is known with arbitrary precision. In this Letter we find an exact expression, as well as a simple analytical approximation, for the evolution of the effective equation of state of dark energy, assuming that the energy transfer rate between dark matter and dark energy is described by a simple two-parameter model. We also provide analytical examples where non-phantom interacting dark energy models mimic the background evolution and primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies of phantom dark energy models.

Effective dark energy equation of state in interacting dark energy models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Avelino, P.P., E-mail: ppavelin@fc.up.pt [Centro de Astrofisica da Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, 4150-762 Porto (Portugal); Departamento de Fisica e Astronomia da Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto (Portugal); Silva, H.M.R. da, E-mail: hilberto.silva@gmail.com [Departamento de Fisica e Astronomia da Faculdade de Ciencias da Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre 687, 4169-007 Porto (Portugal)

2012-07-24

In models where dark matter and dark energy interact non-minimally, the total amount of matter in a fixed comoving volume may vary from the time of recombination to the present time due to energy transfer between the two components. This implies that, in interacting dark energy models, the fractional matter density estimated using the cosmic microwave background assuming no interaction between dark matter and dark energy will in general be shifted with respect to its true value. This may result in an incorrect determination of the equation of state of dark energy if the interaction between dark matter and dark energy is not properly accounted for, even if the evolution of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift is known with arbitrary precision. In this Letter we find an exact expression, as well as a simple analytical approximation, for the evolution of the effective equation of state of dark energy, assuming that the energy transfer rate between dark matter and dark energy is described by a simple two-parameter model. We also provide analytical examples where non-phantom interacting dark energy models mimic the background evolution and primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies of phantom dark energy models.

Business model innovation for sustainable energy: German utilities and renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richter, Mario

2013-01-01

The electric power sector stands at the beginning of a fundamental transformation process towards a more sustainable production based on renewable energies. Consequently, electric utilities as incumbent actors face a massive challenge to find new ways of creating, delivering, and capturing value from renewable energy technologies. This study investigates utilities' business models for renewable energies by analyzing two generic business models based on a series of in-depth interviews with German utility managers. It is found that utilities have developed viable business models for large-scale utility-side renewable energy generation. At the same time, utilities lack adequate business models to commercialize small-scale customer-side renewable energy technologies. By combining the business model concept with innovation and organization theory practical recommendations for utility mangers and policy makers are derived. - Highlights: • The energy transition creates a fundamental business model challenge for utilities. • German utilities succeed in large-scale and fail in small-scale renewable generation. • Experiences from other industries are available to inform utility managers. • Business model innovation capabilities will be crucial to master the energy transition

Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.

2015-01-01

Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves

Improving the Xin'anjiang hydrological model based on mass–energy balance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.-H. Fang

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models are preferable for real-time flood forecasting, among which the Xin'anjiang (XAJ model has been widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China. Although the relatively simple mass balance scheme ensures a good performance of runoff simulation during flood events, the model still has some defects. Previous studies have confirmed the importance of evapotranspiration (ET and soil moisture content (SMC in runoff simulation. In order to add more constraints to the original XAJ model, an energy balance scheme suitable for the XAJ model was developed and coupled with the original mass balance scheme of the XAJ model. The detailed parameterizations of the improved model, XAJ-EB, are presented in the first part of this paper. XAJ-EB employs various meteorological forcing and remote sensing data as input, simulating ET and runoff yield using a more physically based mass–energy balance scheme. In particular, the energy balance is solved by determining the representative equilibrium temperature (RET, which is comparable to land surface temperature (LST. The XAJ-EB was evaluated in the Lushui catchment situated in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin for the period between 2004 and 2007. Validation using ground-measured runoff data proves that the XAJ-EB is capable of reproducing runoff comparable to the original XAJ model. Additionally, RET simulated by XAJ-EB agreed well with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS-retrieved LST, which further confirms that the model is able to simulate the mass–energy balance since LST reflects the interactions among various processes. The validation results prove that the XAJ-EB model has superior performance compared with the XAJ model and also extends its applicability.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

Science.gov (United States)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

Communication received on 25 April 1995 from the Resident Representative of Belarus to the International Atomic Energy Agency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

On 25 April 1995, the Director General received a letter from the Resident Representative of Belarus to the International Atomic Energy Agency submitting the official notification of the signing of Belarus of the Agreement between the Republic of Belarus and the Agency for the Application of Safeguards pursuant to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At the request of the Resident Representative, the text of the attached notification is circulated for the information of Member States

Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Michael

2010-09-15

This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

Models for the energy performance of low-energy houses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff

of buildings, the first topic analyzed is the variation of presence of occupants. As buildings get more energy-effcient, internal loads and user-behavior increasingly influence the energy consumption. Most simulation tools use deterministic occupancy profiles to simulate internal loads. However, such occupancy......The aim of this thesis is data-driven modeling of heat dynamics of buildings. Traditionally, thermal modeling of buildings is done using simulation tools which take information about the construction, weather data, occupancy etc. as inputs and generate deterministic energy profiles of the buildings....... The approach to modeling occupants’ presence provides a flexible method where no assumptions in the application. The rest of the thesis deals with statistical modeling of heat dynamics of buildings. First, discrete-time models are applied. Discrete-time models are computationally relatively simple and provide...

Modeling residential water and related energy, carbon footprint and costs in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escriva-Bou, Alvar; Lund, Jay R.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2015-01-01

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We model residential water use and related energy and GHG emissions in California. • Heterogeneity in use, spatial variability and water and energy rates are accounted. • Outdoor is more than 50% of water use but 80% of energy is used by faucet + shower. • Variability in water and energy prices affects willingness to adopt conservation. • Targeting high-use hoses and joint conservation policies are effective strategies. - Abstract: Starting from single-family household water end-use data, this study develops an end-use model for water-use and related energy and carbon footprint using probability distributions for parameters affecting water consumption in 10 local water utilities in California. Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop a large representative sample of households to describe variability in use, with water bills for each house for different utility rate structures. The water-related energy consumption for each household realization was obtained using an energy model based on the different water end-uses, assuming probability distributions for hot-water-use for each appliance and water heater characteristics. Spatial variability is incorporated to account for average air and household water inlet temperatures and price structures for each utility. Water-related energy costs are calculated using averaged energy price for each location. CO 2 emissions were derived from energy use using emission factors. Overall simulation runs assess the impact of several common conservation strategies on household water and energy use. Results show that single-family water-related CO 2 emissions are 2% of overall per capita emissions, and that managing water and energy jointly can significantly reduce state greenhouse gas emissions

Origin of holographic dark energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myung, Yun Soo; Seo, Min-Gyun

2009-01-01

We investigate the origin of holographic dark energy models which were recently proposed to explain the dark energy-dominated universe. For this purpose, we introduce the spacetime foam uncertainty of δl≥l p α l α-1 . It was argued that the case of α=2/3 could describe the dark energy with infinite statistics, while the case of α=1/2 can describe the ordinary matter with Bose-Fermi statistics. However, two cases may lead to the holographic energy density if the latter recovers from the geometric mean of UV and IR scales. Hence the dark energy with infinite statistics based on the entropy bound is not an ingredient for deriving the holographic dark energy model. Furthermore, it is shown that the agegraphic dark energy models are the holographic dark energy model with different IR length scales

Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, Francesco

2005-01-01

Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

Towards an energy management maturity model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antunes, Pedro; Carreira, Paulo; Mira da Silva, Miguel

2014-01-01

Energy management is becoming a priority as organizations strive to reduce energy costs, conform to regulatory requirements, and improve their corporate image. Despite the upsurge of interest in energy management standards, a gap persists between energy management literature and current implementation practices. This gap can be traced to the lack of an incremental improvement roadmap. In this paper we propose an Energy Management Maturity Model that can be used to guide organizations in their energy management implementation efforts to incrementally achieve compliance with energy management standards such as ISO 50001. The proposed maturity model is inspired on the Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle approach for continual improvement, and covers well-understood fundamental energy management activities common across energy management texts. The completeness of our proposal is then evaluated by establishing an ontology mapping against ISO 50001. - Highlights: • Real-world energy management activities are not aligned with the literature. • An Energy Management Maturity Model is proposed to overcome this alignment gap. • The completeness and relevance of proposed model are validated

Energy efficient model based algorithm for control of building HVAC systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirubakaran, V; Sahu, Chinmay; Radhakrishnan, T K; Sivakumaran, N

2015-11-01

Energy efficient designs are receiving increasing attention in various fields of engineering. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) control system designs involve improved energy usage with an acceptable relaxation in thermal comfort. In this paper, real time data from a building HVAC system provided by BuildingLAB is considered. A resistor-capacitor (RC) framework for representing thermal dynamics of the building is estimated using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. With objective costs as thermal comfort (deviation of room temperature from required temperature) and energy measure (Ecm) explicit MPC design for this building model is executed based on its state space representation of the supply water temperature (input)/room temperature (output) dynamics. The controllers are subjected to servo tracking and external disturbance (ambient temperature) is provided from the real time data during closed loop control. The control strategies are ported on a PIC32mx series microcontroller platform. The building model is implemented in MATLAB and hardware in loop (HIL) testing of the strategies is executed over a USB port. Results indicate that compared to traditional proportional integral (PI) controllers, the explicit MPC's improve both energy efficiency and thermal comfort significantly. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Power-based electric vehicle energy consumption model: Model development and validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiori, Chiara; Ahn, Kyoungho; Rakha, Hesham A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The study developed an instantaneous energy consumption model (VT-CPEM) for EVs. • The model captures instantaneous braking energy regeneration. • The model can be used for transportation modeling and vehicle applications (e.g. eco-routing). • The proposed model can be easily calibrated using publically available EV data. • Usages of air conditioning and heating systems reduce EV energy consumption by up to 10% and 24%, respectively. - Abstract: The limited drive range (The maximum distance that an EV can travel.) of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is one of the major challenges that EV manufacturers are attempting to overcome. To this end, a simple, accurate, and efficient energy consumption model is needed to develop real-time eco-driving and eco-routing systems that can enhance the energy efficiency of EVs and thus extend their travel range. Although numerous publications have focused on the modeling of EV energy consumption levels, these studies are limited to measuring energy consumption of an EV’s control algorithm, macro-project evaluations, or simplified well-to-wheels analyses. Consequently, this paper addresses this need by developing a simple EV energy model that computes an EV’s instantaneous energy consumption using second-by-second vehicle speed, acceleration and roadway grade data as input variables. In doing so, the model estimates the instantaneous braking energy regeneration. The proposed model can be easily implemented in the following applications: in-vehicle, Smartphone eco-driving, eco-routing and transportation simulation software to quantify the network-wide energy consumption levels for a fleet of EVs. One of the main advantages of EVs is their ability to recover energy while braking using a regenerative braking system. State-of-the-art vehicle energy consumption models consider an average constant regenerative braking energy efficiency or regenerative braking factors that are mainly dependent on the vehicle’s average

Dynamic Modelling with "MLE-Energy Dynamic" for Primary School

Science.gov (United States)

Giliberti, Enrico; Corni, Federico

During the recent years simulation and modelling are growing instances in science education. In primary school, however, the main use of software is the simulation, due to the lack of modelling software tools specially designed to fit/accomplish the needs of primary education. In particular primary school teachers need to use simulation in a framework that is both consistent and simple enough to be understandable by children [2]. One of the possible area to approach modelling is about the construction of the concept of energy, in particular for what concerns the relations among substance, potential, power [3]. Following the previous initial research results with this approach [2], and with the static version of the software MLE Energy [1], we suggest the design and the experimentation of a dynamic modelling software—MLE dynamic-capable to represent dynamically the relations occurring when two substance-like quantities exchange energy, modifying their potential. By means of this software the user can graphically choose the dependent and independent variables and leave the other parameters fixed. The software has been initially evaluated, during a course of science education with a group of primary school teachers-to-be, to test the ability of the software to improve teachers' way of thinking in terms of substance-like quantities and their effects (graphical representation of the extensive, intensive variables and their mutual relations); moreover, the software has been tested with a group of primary school teachers, asking their opinion about the software didactical relevance in the class work.

Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico; Tagliafico, Luca A.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A dynamic model to estimate the energy performance of buildings is presented. • The model is validated against leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. • Modified degree days are introduced to account for solar irradiation effects. - Abstract: Degree days represent a versatile climatic indicator which is commonly used in building energy performance analysis. In this context, the present paper proposes a simple dynamic model to simulate heating/cooling energy consumption in buildings. The model consists of several transient energy balance equations for external walls and internal air according to a lumped-capacitance approach and it has been implemented utilizing the Matlab/Simulink® platform. Results are validated by comparison to the outcomes of leading software packages, TRNSYS and Energy Plus. By using the above mentioned model, energy consumption for heating/cooling is analyzed in different locations, showing that for low degree days the inertia effect assumes a paramount importance, affecting the common linear behavior of the building consumption against the standard degree days, especially for cooling energy demand. Cooling energy demand at low cooling degree days (CDDs) is deeply analyzed, highlighting that in this situation other factors, such as solar irradiation, have an important role. To take into account these effects, a correction to CDD is proposed, demonstrating that by considering all the contributions the linear relationship between energy consumption and degree days is maintained

The Importance of Representing Certain Key Vegetation Canopy Processes Explicitly in a Land Surface Model

Science.gov (United States)

Napoly, A.; Boone, A. A.; Martin, E.; Samuelsson, P.

2015-12-01

Land surface models are moving to more detailed vegetation canopy descriptions in order to better represent certain key processes, such as Carbon dynamics and snowpack evolution. Since such models are usually applied within coupled numerical weather prediction or spatially distributed hydrological models, these improvements must strike a balance between computational cost and complexity. The consequences of simplified or composite canopy approaches can be manifested in terms of increased errors with respect to soil temperatures, estimates of the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes or snow canopy interception and melt. Vegetated areas and particularly forests are modeled in a quite simplified manner in the ISBA land surface model. However, continuous developments of surface processes now require a more accurate description of the canopy. A new version of the the model now includes a multi energy balance (MEB) option to explicitly represent the canopy and the forest floor. It will be shown that certain newly included processes such as the shading effect of the vegetation, the explicit heat capacity of the canopy, and the insulating effect of the forest floor turn out to be essential. A detailed study has been done for four French forested sites. It was found that the MEB option significantly improves the ground heat flux (RMSE decrease from 50W/m2 to 10W/m2 on average) and soil temperatures when compared against measurements. Also the sensible heat flux calculation was improved primarily owing to a better phasing with the solar insulation owing to a lower vegetation heat capacity. However, the total latent heat flux is less modified compared to the classical ISBA simulation since it is more related to water uptake and the formulation of the stomatal resistance (which are unchanged). Next, a benchmark over 40 Fluxnet sites (116 cumulated years) was performed and compared with results from the default composite soil-vegetation version of ISBA. The results show

Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan; Guivarch, Céline; Quirion, Philippe

2012-01-01

Although the building sector is recognized as having major potential for energy conservation and carbon dioxide emission mitigation, conventional bottom–up and top–down models are limited in their ability to capture the complex economic and technological dynamics of the sector. This paper introduces a hybrid framework developed to assess future household energy demand in France. Res-IRF, a bottom–up module of energy consumption for space heating, has several distinctive features: (i) a clear separation between energy efficiency, i.e. investment in energy efficient technologies, and sufficiency, i.e. changes in the utilization of energy consuming durables which allows the rebound effect to be assessed; (ii) the inclusion of barriers to energy efficiency in the form of intangible costs, consumer heterogeneity parameters and the learning-by-doing process; (iii) an endogenous determination of retrofitting which represents trade-offs between retrofit quantity and quality. Subsequently, Res-IRF is linked to the IMACLIM-R computable general equilibrium model. This exercise shows that, compared to a 37% reduction in final energy demand achievable in business as usual in existing dwellings in 2050, an additional reduction of 21% could be achieved if relevant barriers to efficiency and sufficiency were overcome. - Highlights: ► The paper introduces a hybrid framework developed to assess future household energy demand in France. ► The model offers a clear separation between investment in energy efficient technologies and changes in their utilization. ► Intangible costs, heterogeneous discount rates and learning-by-doing functions mimic some barriers to energy efficiency. ► Simulations show that a 37% energy demand reduction could be achieved in business as usual in existing dwellings in 2050. ► An additional reduction of 21% could be achieved if relevant barriers to energy conservation were overcome.

Fractional-Order Modeling and Sliding Mode Control of Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Dynamic Evolution System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Sunhua; Zhou, Bin; Li, Canbing

2018-01-01

represent complex dynamic behaviours with chaotic and unstable states on the energy conservation, carbon emissions, economic growth, and renewable energy development, and have a great impact on the formulation of government energy policies. Furthermore, based on the fractional Lyapunov stability and robust......, and the fractional-order model of the energy-saving and emission-reduction system (FOESERS) is formulated. With the proposed FOESERS, all of the equilibrium points and the corresponding eigenvalues are obtained, and the instability region and the state trajectories of FOESERS are also given. The FOESERS can...

A Comparison of Energy Consumption Prediction Models Based on Neural Networks of a Bioclimatic Building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid R. Khosravani

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption has been increasing steadily due to globalization and industrialization. Studies have shown that buildings are responsible for the biggest proportion of energy consumption; for example in European Union countries, energy consumption in buildings represents around 40% of the total energy consumption. In order to control energy consumption in buildings, different policies have been proposed, from utilizing bioclimatic architectures to the use of predictive models within control approaches. There are mainly three groups of predictive models including engineering, statistical and artificial intelligence models. Nowadays, artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and support vector machines have also been proposed because of their high potential capabilities of performing accurate nonlinear mappings between inputs and outputs in real environments which are not free of noise. The main objective of this paper is to compare a neural network model which was designed utilizing statistical and analytical methods, with a group of neural network models designed benefiting from a multi objective genetic algorithm. Moreover, the neural network models were compared to a naïve autoregressive baseline model. The models are intended to predict electric power demand at the Solar Energy Research Center (Centro de Investigación en Energía SOLar or CIESOL in Spanish bioclimatic building located at the University of Almeria, Spain. Experimental results show that the models obtained from the multi objective genetic algorithm (MOGA perform comparably to the model obtained through a statistical and analytical approach, but they use only 0.8% of data samples and have lower model complexity.

Macroeconomic models and energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douillard, Pierre; Le Hir, Boris; Epaulard, Anne

2016-02-01

As a new policy for energy transition has just been adopted, several questions emerge about the best way to reduce CO 2 emissions, about policies which enable this reduction, and about their costs and opportunities. This note discusses the contribution macro-economic models may have in this respect, notably in the definition of policies which trigger behaviour changes, and those which support energy transition. The authors first discuss the stakes of the assessment of energy transition, and then describe macro-economic models which can be used for such an assessment, give and comment some results of simulations performed for France by using four of these models (Mesange, Numesis, ThreeME, and Imaclim-R France). The authors finally draw lessons about the way to use these models and to interpret their results within the frame of energy transition

Agent based modeling of energy networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new approach for energy network modeling is designed and tested. • The agent-based approach is general and no technology dependent. • The models can be easily extended. • The range of applications encompasses from small to large energy infrastructures. - Abstract: Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed

A transferable coarse-grained model for diphenylalanine: How to represent an environment driven conformational transition

Science.gov (United States)

Dalgicdir, Cahit; Sensoy, Ozge; Peter, Christine; Sayar, Mehmet

2013-12-01

One of the major challenges in the development of coarse grained (CG) simulation models that aim at biomolecular structure formation processes is the correct representation of an environment-driven conformational change, for example, a folding/unfolding event upon interaction with an interface or upon aggregation. In the present study, we investigate this transferability challenge for a CG model using the example of diphenylalanine. This dipeptide displays a transition from a trans-like to a cis-like conformation upon aggregation as well as upon transfer from bulk water to the cyclohexane/water interface. Here, we show that one can construct a single CG model that can reproduce both the bulk and interface conformational behavior and the segregation between hydrophobic/hydrophilic medium. While the general strategy to obtain nonbonded interactions in the present CG model is to reproduce solvation free energies of small molecules representing the CG beads in the respective solvents, the success of the model strongly depends on nontrivial decisions one has to make to capture the delicate balance between the bonded and nonbonded interactions. In particular, we found that the peptide's conformational behavior is qualitatively affected by the cyclohexane/water interaction potential, an interaction that does not directly involve the peptide at all but merely influences the properties of the hydrophobic/hydrophilic interface. Furthermore, we show that a small modification to improve the structural/conformational properties of the CG model could dramatically alter the thermodynamic properties.

A transferable coarse-grained model for diphenylalanine: How to represent an environment driven conformational transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalgicdir, Cahit; Sensoy, Ozge; Sayar, Mehmet; Peter, Christine

2013-01-01

One of the major challenges in the development of coarse grained (CG) simulation models that aim at biomolecular structure formation processes is the correct representation of an environment-driven conformational change, for example, a folding/unfolding event upon interaction with an interface or upon aggregation. In the present study, we investigate this transferability challenge for a CG model using the example of diphenylalanine. This dipeptide displays a transition from a trans-like to a cis-like conformation upon aggregation as well as upon transfer from bulk water to the cyclohexane/water interface. Here, we show that one can construct a single CG model that can reproduce both the bulk and interface conformational behavior and the segregation between hydrophobic/hydrophilic medium. While the general strategy to obtain nonbonded interactions in the present CG model is to reproduce solvation free energies of small molecules representing the CG beads in the respective solvents, the success of the model strongly depends on nontrivial decisions one has to make to capture the delicate balance between the bonded and nonbonded interactions. In particular, we found that the peptide's conformational behavior is qualitatively affected by the cyclohexane/water interaction potential, an interaction that does not directly involve the peptide at all but merely influences the properties of the hydrophobic/hydrophilic interface. Furthermore, we show that a small modification to improve the structural/conformational properties of the CG model could dramatically alter the thermodynamic properties

A transferable coarse-grained model for diphenylalanine: How to represent an environment driven conformational transition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalgicdir, Cahit; Sensoy, Ozge; Sayar, Mehmet, E-mail: msayar@ku.edu.tr [College of Engineering, Koç University, 34450 Istanbul (Turkey); Peter, Christine [Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research, 55128 Mainz (Germany); Department of Chemistry, University of Konstanz, 78547 Konstanz (Germany)

2013-12-21

One of the major challenges in the development of coarse grained (CG) simulation models that aim at biomolecular structure formation processes is the correct representation of an environment-driven conformational change, for example, a folding/unfolding event upon interaction with an interface or upon aggregation. In the present study, we investigate this transferability challenge for a CG model using the example of diphenylalanine. This dipeptide displays a transition from a trans-like to a cis-like conformation upon aggregation as well as upon transfer from bulk water to the cyclohexane/water interface. Here, we show that one can construct a single CG model that can reproduce both the bulk and interface conformational behavior and the segregation between hydrophobic/hydrophilic medium. While the general strategy to obtain nonbonded interactions in the present CG model is to reproduce solvation free energies of small molecules representing the CG beads in the respective solvents, the success of the model strongly depends on nontrivial decisions one has to make to capture the delicate balance between the bonded and nonbonded interactions. In particular, we found that the peptide's conformational behavior is qualitatively affected by the cyclohexane/water interaction potential, an interaction that does not directly involve the peptide at all but merely influences the properties of the hydrophobic/hydrophilic interface. Furthermore, we show that a small modification to improve the structural/conformational properties of the CG model could dramatically alter the thermodynamic properties.

The ESRI Energy Model

OpenAIRE

Di Cosmo, Valeri; Hyland, Marie

2012-01-01

PUBLISHED In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to re...

Energy flow modeling and optimal operation analysis of the micro energy grid based on energy hub

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Tengfei; Wu, Junyong; Hao, Liangliang

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Design a novel architecture for energy hub integrating power hub, cooling hub and heating hub. • The micro energy grid based on energy hub is introduced and its advantages are discussed. • Propose a generic modeling method for the energy flow of micro energy grid. • Propose an optimal operation model for micro energy grid with considering demand response. • The roles of renewable energy, energy storage devices and demand response are discussed separately. - Abstract: The energy security and environmental problems impel people to explore a more efficient, environment friendly and economical energy utilization pattern. In this paper, the coordinated operation and optimal dispatch strategies for multiple energy system are studied at the whole Micro Energy Grid level. To augment the operation flexibility of energy hub, the innovation sub-energy hub structure including power hub, heating hub and cooling hub is put forward. Basing on it, a generic energy hub architecture integrating renewable energy, combined cooling heating and power, and energy storage devices is developed. Moreover, a generic modeling method for the energy flow of micro energy grid is proposed. To minimize the daily operation cost, a day-ahead dynamic optimal operation model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem with considering the demand response. Case studies are undertaken on a community Micro Energy Grid in four different scenarios on a typical summer day and the roles of renewable energy, energy storage devices and demand response are discussed separately. Numerical simulation results indicate that the proposed energy flow modeling and optimal operation method are universal and effective over the entire energy dispatching horizon.

Comparing holographic dark energy models with statefinder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cui, Jing-Lei; Zhang, Jing-Fei

2014-01-01

We apply the statefinder diagnostic to the holographic dark energy models, including the original holographic dark energy (HDE) model, the new holographic dark energy model, the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE) model, and the Ricci dark energy model. In the low-redshift region the holographic dark energy models are degenerate with each other and with the ΛCDM model in the H(z) and q(z) evolutions. In particular, the HDE model is highly degenerate with the ΛCDM model, and in the HDE model the cases with different parameter values are also in strong degeneracy. Since the observational data are mainly within the low-redshift region, it is very important to break this lowredshift degeneracy in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics by using some quantities with higher order derivatives of the scale factor. It is shown that the statefinder diagnostic r(z) is very useful in breaking the low-redshift degeneracies. By employing the statefinder diagnostic the holographic dark energy models can be differentiated efficiently in the low-redshift region. The degeneracy between the holographic dark energy models and the ΛCDM model can also be broken by this method. Especially for the HDE model, all the previous strong degeneracies appearing in the H(z) and q(z) diagnostics are broken effectively. But for the NADE model, the degeneracy between the cases with different parameter values cannot be broken, even though the statefinder diagnostic is used. A direct comparison of the holographic dark energy models in the r-s plane is also made, in which the separations between the models (including the ΛCDM model) can be directly measured in the light of the current values {r 0 , s 0 } of the models. (orig.)

Coupling Visualization, Simulation, and Deep Learning for Ensemble Steering of Complex Energy Models: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Potter, Kristin C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brunhart-Lupo, Nicholas J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gruchalla, Kenny M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-09

We have developed a framework for the exploration, design, and planning of energy systems that combines interactive visualization with machine-learning based approximations of simulations through a general purpose dataflow API. Our system provides a visual inter- face allowing users to explore an ensemble of energy simulations representing a subset of the complex input parameter space, and spawn new simulations to 'fill in' input regions corresponding to new enegery system scenarios. Unfortunately, many energy simula- tions are far too slow to provide interactive responses. To support interactive feedback, we are developing reduced-form models via machine learning techniques, which provide statistically sound esti- mates of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost and which are used as proxies for the full-form models. Fast com- putation and an agile dataflow enhance the engagement with energy simulations, and allow researchers to better allocate computational resources to capture informative relationships within the system and provide a low-cost method for validating and quality-checking large-scale modeling efforts.

Balmorel open source energy system model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiese, Frauke; Bramstoft, Rasmus; Koduvere, Hardi

2018-01-01

As the world progresses towards a cleaner energy future with more variable renewable energy sources, energy system models are required to deal with new challenges. This article describes design, development and applications of the open source energy system model Balmorel, which is a result...... of a long and fruitful cooperation between public and private institutions within energy system research and analysis. The purpose of the article is to explain the modelling approach, to highlight strengths and challenges of the chosen approach, to create awareness about the possible applications...... of Balmorel as well as to inspire to new model developments and encourage new users to join the community. Some of the key strengths of the model are the flexible handling of the time and space dimensions and the combination of operation and investment optimisation. Its open source character enables diverse...

Modeling international trends in energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, David I.

2012-01-01

I use a stochastic production frontier to model energy efficiency trends in 85 countries over a 37-year period. Differences in energy efficiency across countries are modeled as a stochastic function of explanatory variables and I estimate the model using the cross-section of time-averaged data, so that no structure is imposed on technological change over time. Energy efficiency is measured using a new energy distance function approach. The country using the least energy per unit output, given its mix of outputs and inputs, defines the global production frontier. A country's relative energy efficiency is given by its distance from the frontier—the ratio of its actual energy use to the minimum required energy use, ceteris paribus. Energy efficiency is higher in countries with, inter alia, higher total factor productivity, undervalued currencies, and smaller fossil fuel reserves and it converges over time across countries. Globally, technological change was the most important factor counteracting the energy-use and carbon-emissions increasing effects of economic growth.

Hybrid Energy System Modeling in Modelica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

William R. Binder; Christiaan J. J. Paredis; Humberto E. Garcia

2014-03-01

In this paper, a Hybrid Energy System (HES) configuration is modeled in Modelica. Hybrid Energy Systems (HES) have as their defining characteristic the use of one or more energy inputs, combined with the potential for multiple energy outputs. Compared to traditional energy systems, HES provide additional operational flexibility so that high variability in both energy production and consumption levels can be absorbed more effectively. This is particularly important when including renewable energy sources, whose output levels are inherently variable, determined by nature. The specific HES configuration modeled in this paper include two energy inputs: a nuclear plant, and a series of wind turbines. In addition, the system produces two energy outputs: electricity and synthetic fuel. The models are verified through simulations of the individual components, and the system as a whole. The simulations are performed for a range of component sizes, operating conditions, and control schemes.

World Energy Projection System model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

World Energy Projection System model documentation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

1997-09-01

The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

Modelling the energy future of Switzerland after the phase out of nuclear power plants

Science.gov (United States)

Diaz, Paula; Van Vliet, Oscar

2015-04-01

In September 2013, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) published the final report of the proposed measures in the context of the Energy Strategy 2050 (ES2050). The ES2050 draws an energy scenario where the nuclear must be substituted by alternative sources. This implies a fundamental change in the energy system that has already been questioned by experts, e.g. [Piot, 2014]. Therefore, we must analyse in depth the technical implications of change in the Swiss energy mix from a robust baseload power such as nuclear, to an electricity mix where intermittent sources account for higher rates. Accomplishing the ES2050 imply difficult challenges, since nowadays nuclear power is the second most consumed energy source in Switzerland. According to the SFOE, nuclear accounts for a 23.3% of the gross production, only surpassed by crude oil products (43.3%). Hydropower is the third source more consumed, representing approximately the half of the nuclear (12.2%). Considering that Switzerland has almost reached the maximum of its hydropower capacity, renewables are more likely to be the alternative when the nuclear phase out takes place. Hence, solar and wind power will play an important role in the future Swiss energy mix, even though currently new renewables account for only 1.9% of the gross energy consumption. In this study we look for realistic and efficient combinations of energy resources to substitute nuclear power. Energy modelling is a powerful tool to design an energy system with high energy security that avoids problems of intermittency [Mathiesen & Lund, 2009]. In Switzerland, energy modelling has been used by the government [Abt et. al., 2012] and also has significant relevance in academia [Mathys, 2012]. Nevertheless, we detected a gap in the study of the security in energy scenarios [Busser, 2013]. This study examines the future electricity production of Switzerland using Calliope, a multi-scale energy systems model, developed at Imperial College, London and

Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ruijven, B.J.

2008-01-01

Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used to explore possible future developments of the global energy system and identify policies to prevent potential problems. Such estimations of future energy use in developing countries are very uncertain. Crucial factors in the future energy use of these regions are electrification, urbanisation and income distribution, issues that are generally not included in present day global energy models. Model simulations in this thesis show that current insight in developments in low-income regions lead to a wide range of expected energy use in 2030 of the residential and transport sectors. This is mainly caused by many different model calibration options that result from the limited data availability for model development and calibration. We developed a method to identify the impact of model calibration uncertainty on future projections. We developed a new model for residential energy use in India, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science. Experiments with this model show that the impact of electrification and income distribution is less univocal than often assumed. The use of fuelwood, with related health risks, can decrease rapidly if the income of poor groups increases. However, there is a trade off in terms of CO2 emissions because these groups gain access to electricity and the ownership of appliances increases. Another issue is the potential role of new technologies in developing countries: will they use the opportunities of leapfrogging? We explored the potential role of hydrogen, an energy carrier that might play a central role in a sustainable energy system. We found that hydrogen only plays a role before 2050 under very optimistic assumptions. Regional energy

Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sathaye, J.; Xu, T.; Galitsky, C.

2010-08-15

Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models.

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-02-01

Over the past year, several modifications have been made to the NEMS Transportation Model, incorporating greater levels of detail and analysis in modules previously represented in the aggregate or under a profusion of simplifying assumptions. This document is intended to amend those sections of the Model Documentation Report (MDR) which describe these superseded modules. Significant changes have been implemented in the LDV Fuel Economy Model, the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the LDV Fleet Module, and the Highway Freight Model. The relevant sections of the MDR have been extracted from the original document, amended, and are presented in the following pages. A brief summary of the modifications follows: In the Fuel Economy Model, modifications have been made which permit the user to employ more optimistic assumptions about the commercial viability and impact of selected technological improvements. This model also explicitly calculates the fuel economy of an array of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV`s) which are subsequently used in the estimation of vehicle sales. In the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the results of the Fuel Economy Model have been incorporated, and the program flows have been modified to reflect that fact. In the Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Module, the sales of vehicles to fleets of various size are endogenously calculated in order to provide a more detailed estimate of the impacts of EPACT legislation on the sales of AFV`s to fleets. In the Highway Freight Model, the previous aggregate estimation has been replaced by a detailed Freight Truck Stock Model, where travel patterns, efficiencies, and energy intensities are estimated by industrial grouping. Several appendices are provided at the end of this document, containing data tables and supplementary descriptions of the model development process which are not integral to an understanding of the overall model structure.

Modeling of renewable hybrid energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru Cristian Dragos

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Recent developments and trends in the electric power consumption indicate an increasing use of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. By this point of view studies on renewable energies focuses more and more attention. The present paper intends to present different mathematical models related to different types of renewable energy sources such as: solar energy and wind energy. It is also presented the validation and adaptation of such models to hybrid systems working in geographical and meteorological conditions specific to central part of Transylvania region. The conclusions based on validation of such models are also shown.

The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Dessens, Olivier

2016-04-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

Modelling distributed energy resources in energy service networks

CERN Document Server

Acha, Salvador

2013-01-01

Focuses on modelling two key infrastructures (natural gas and electrical) in urban energy systems with embedded technologies (cogeneration and electric vehicles) to optimise the operation of natural gas and electrical infrastructures under the presence of distributed energy resources

Hybrid modeling to support energy-climate policy: Effects of feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proença, Sara; St Aubyn, Miguel

2013-01-01

Feed-in tariffs have been the main policy instrument applied in Portugal for the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources under the EU Directives on energy and climate regulation. In this paper, we provide an empirical impact assessment of the economic and environmental effects of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. Impact assessment of policy instruments plays a crucial role on decision-making process. For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium modeling approach, which represents a reliable tool to analyze the complex interactions between economic, energy, and environmental issues related to energy policies. Numerical simulations confirm the empirical evidence that the FITs policy implemented by Portugal was both an effective and a cost-efficient way to increase the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and thus to achieve the national RES-E target of 45% in 2010. Results show relatively modest macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of renewable energy source results in significant carbon emissions reductions. - Highlights: ► We provide an impact assessment of Portugal's FITs policy to promote RES-E generation. ► For numerical simulations, we make use of a hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium model. ► Portugal's FITs policy proved to be a cost-efficient way to increase generation of renewable electricity. ► Results show relatively modest macroeconomic effects indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. ► The deployment of renewable energy sources results in significant carbon emission reductions

Renewable energies - Situation and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Acket, Claude; Vaillant, Jacques

2011-01-01

The world has to face increasing energy needs while it is today dependent of fossil fuels at 80%. Getting out of the fossil fuels dependence model requires an important effort to promote the energy saving and the carbon-free energies as well, and in particular the renewable energy sources. Taking all this information into account, the authors evaluate the global share that renewable energies could represent in the energy mix, in France and in the entire world. This share represents today only 10% of the energy consumed, but will it remain marginal or will it become important and eventually prominent? (J.S.)

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-03-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

Validation of a Crystal Plasticity Model Using High Energy Diffraction Microscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Beaudoin, A. J.; Obstalecki, M.; Storer, R.; Tayon, W.; Mach, J.; Kenesei, P.; Lienert, U.

2012-01-01

High energy diffraction microscopy is used to measure the crystallographic orientation and evolution of lattice strain in an Al Li alloy. The relative spatial arrangement of the several pancake-shaped grains in a tensile sample is determined through in situ and ex situ techniques. A model for crystal plasticity with continuity of lattice spin is posed, where grains are represented by layers in a finite element mesh following the arrangement indicated by experiment. Comparison is drawn between experiment and simulation.

Temperatures and heating energy in New Zealand houses from a nationally representative study - HEEP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

French, L.J.; Camilleri, M.J.; Isaacs, N.P.; Pollard, A.R. [BRANZ Ltd., Private Bag 50 908, Porirua City (New Zealand)

2007-07-15

The household energy end-use project (HEEP) has collected energy and temperature data from a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of about 400 houses throughout New Zealand. This database has been used to explore the drivers of indoor temperatures and heating energy. Initial analysis of the winter living room temperatures shows that heating type, climate and house age are the key drivers. On average, houses heated by solid fuel are the warmest, with houses heated by portable LPG and electric heaters the coldest. Over the three winter months, living rooms are below 20 {sup o}C for 83% of the time - and the living room is typically the warmest room. Central heating is in only 5% of houses. Solid fuel is the dominant heating fuel in houses. The lack of air conditioning means that summer temperatures are affected by passive influences (e.g. house design, construction). Summer temperatures are strongly influenced by the house age and the local climate - together these variables explain 69% of the variation in daytime (9 a.m. to 5 p.m.) living room temperatures. In both summer and winter newer (post-1978) houses are warmer - this is beneficial in winter, but the high temperatures in summer are potentially uncomfortable. (author)

Research on the decomposition model for China’s National Renewable Energy total target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Zhen; Shi, Yuren; Yan, Jianming; Ou, Xunmin; Lieu, Jenny

2012-01-01

of renewable energy was proposed considering the resource distribution, energy consumption of different provinces and the development characteristics of various renewable energy industry. In the model, the total target includes three shares: basic share, fixed share and floating share target. The preference relation was determined between the resource potential and energy consumption in the process of target distribution. The growth model for various renewable energy industries was presented. Combination with regional economical development targets, the phase targets of renewable energy in various provinces were proposed. In order to verify the correctness of the model, as the represented energy, wind power, solar power and hydropower were considered in the study. The phase targets of renewable energy in various provinces were proposed combinative the overall planning of national renewable energy, energy requirements and resources distribution. It is of certain significance to implement and supervise the overall plan of renewable energy.

Evaluating predictive models for solar energy growth in the US states and identifying the key drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Joheen; Banerji, Sugata

2018-03-01

Driven by a desire to control climate change and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, governments around the world are increasing the adoption of renewable energy sources. However, among the US states, we observe a wide disparity in renewable penetration. In this study, we have identified and cleaned over a dozen datasets representing solar energy penetration in each US state, and the potentially relevant socioeconomic and other factors that may be driving the growth in solar. We have applied a number of predictive modeling approaches - including machine learning and regression - on these datasets over a 17-year period and evaluated the relative performance of the models. Our goals were: (1) identify the most important factors that are driving the growth in solar, (2) choose the most effective predictive modeling technique for solar growth, and (3) develop a model for predicting next year’s solar growth using this year’s data. We obtained very promising results with random forests (about 90% efficacy) and varying degrees of success with support vector machines and regression techniques (linear, polynomial, ridge). We also identified states with solar growth slower than expected and representing a potential for stronger growth in future.

A spring-mass-damper system dynamics-based driver-vehicle integrated model for representing heterogeneous traffic

Science.gov (United States)

Munigety, Caleb Ronald

2018-04-01

The traditional traffic microscopic simulation models consider driver and vehicle as a single unit to represent the movements of drivers in a traffic stream. Due to this very fact, the traditional car-following models have the driver behavior related parameters, but ignore the vehicle related aspects. This approach is appropriate for homogeneous traffic conditions where car is the major vehicle type. However, in heterogeneous traffic conditions where multiple vehicle types are present, it becomes important to incorporate the vehicle related parameters exclusively to account for the varying dynamic and static characteristics. Thus, this paper presents a driver-vehicle integrated model hinged on the principles involved in physics-based spring-mass-damper mechanical system. While the spring constant represents the driver’s aggressiveness, the damping constant and the mass component take care of the stability and size/weight related aspects, respectively. The proposed model when tested, behaved pragmatically in representing the vehicle-type dependent longitudinal movements of vehicles.

Data Structure Analysis to Represent Basic Models of Finite State Automation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. V. Gurenko

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Complex system engineering based on the automaton models requires a reasoned data structure selection to implement them. The problem of automaton representation and data structure selection to be used in it has been understudied. Arbitrary data structure selection for automaton model software implementation leads to unnecessary computational burden and reduces the developed system efficiency. This article proposes an approach to the reasoned selection of data structures to represent finite algoristic automaton basic models and gives practical considerations based on it.Static and dynamic data structures are proposed for three main ways to assign Mealy and Moore automatons: a transition table, a matrix of coupling and a transition graph. A thirddimensional array, a rectangular matrix and a matrix of lists are the static structures. Dynamic structures are list-oriented structures: two-level and three-level Ayliff vectors and a multi-linked list. These structures allow us to store all required information about finite state automaton model components - characteristic set cardinalities and data of transition and output functions.A criterion system is proposed for data structure comparative evaluation in virtue of algorithmic features of automata theory problems. The criteria focused on capacitive and time computational complexity of operations performed in tasks such as equivalent automaton conversions, proving of automaton equivalence and isomorphism, and automaton minimization.A data structure comparative analysis based on the criterion system has done for both static and dynamic type. The analysis showed advantages of the third-dimensional array, matrix and two-level Ayliff vector. These are structures that assign automaton by transition table. For these structures an experiment was done to measure the execution time of automation operations included in criterion system.The analysis of experiment results showed that a dynamic structure - two

Maximizing Energy Savings Reliability in BC Hydro Industrial Demand-side Management Programs: An Assessment of Performance Incentive Models

Science.gov (United States)

Gosman, Nathaniel

of alternative performance incentive program models to manage DSM risk in BC. Three performance incentive program models were assessed and compared to BC Hydro's current large industrial DSM incentive program, Power Smart Partners -- Transmission Project Incentives, itself a performance incentive-based program. Together, the selected program models represent a continuum of program design and implementation in terms of the schedule and level of incentives provided, the duration and rigour of measurement and verification (M&V), energy efficiency measures targeted and involvement of the private sector. A multi criteria assessment framework was developed to rank the capacity of each program model to manage BC large industrial DSM risk factors. DSM risk management rankings were then compared to program costeffectiveness, targeted energy savings potential in BC and survey results from BC industrial firms on the program models. The findings indicate that the reliability of DSM energy savings in the BC large industrial sector can be maximized through performance incentive program models that: (1) offer incentives jointly for capital and low-cost operations and maintenance (O&M) measures, (2) allow flexible lead times for project development, (3) utilize rigorous M&V methods capable of measuring variable load, process-based energy savings, (4) use moderate contract lengths that align with effective measure life, and (5) integrate energy management software tools capable of providing energy performance feedback to customers to maximize the persistence of energy savings. While this study focuses exclusively on the BC large industrial sector, the findings of this research have applicability to all energy utilities serving large, energy intensive industrial sectors.

Representing Operational Knowledge of PWR Plant by Using Multilevel Flow Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2014-01-01

situation and support operational decisions. This paper will provide a general MFM model of the primary side in a standard Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactor ( PWR ) system including sub - systems of Reactor Coolant System, Rod Control System, Chemical and Volume Control System, emergency heat removal......The aim of this paper is to explore the capability of representing operational knowledge by using Multilevel Flow Modelling ( MFM ) methodology. The paper demonstrate s how the operational knowledge can be inserted into the MFM models and be used to evaluate the plant state, identify the current...... systems. And the sub - systems’ functions will be decomposed into sub - models according to different operational situations. An operational model will be developed based on the operating procedure by using MFM symbols and this model can be used to implement coordination rules for organize the utilizati...

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

Multi-energy CT based on a prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Hao; Osher, Stanley; Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge

2011-01-01

We propose a compressive sensing approach for multi-energy computed tomography (CT), namely the prior rank, intensity and sparsity model (PRISM). To further compress the multi-energy image for allowing the reconstruction with fewer CT data and less radiation dose, the PRISM models a multi-energy image as the superposition of a low-rank matrix and a sparse matrix (with row dimension in space and column dimension in energy), where the low-rank matrix corresponds to the stationary background over energy that has a low matrix rank, and the sparse matrix represents the rest of distinct spectral features that are often sparse. Distinct from previous methods, the PRISM utilizes the generalized rank, e.g., the matrix rank of tight-frame transform of a multi-energy image, which offers a way to characterize the multi-level and multi-filtered image coherence across the energy spectrum. Besides, the energy-dependent intensity information can be incorporated into the PRISM in terms of the spectral curves for base materials, with which the restoration of the multi-energy image becomes the reconstruction of the energy-independent material composition matrix. In other words, the PRISM utilizes prior knowledge on the generalized rank and sparsity of a multi-energy image, and intensity/spectral characteristics of base materials. Furthermore, we develop an accurate and fast split Bregman method for the PRISM and demonstrate the superior performance of the PRISM relative to several competing methods in simulations. (papers)

Model based energy benchmarking for glass furnace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sardeshpande, Vishal; Gaitonde, U.N.; Banerjee, Rangan

2007-01-01

Energy benchmarking of processes is important for setting energy efficiency targets and planning energy management strategies. Most approaches used for energy benchmarking are based on statistical methods by comparing with a sample of existing plants. This paper presents a model based approach for benchmarking of energy intensive industrial processes and illustrates this approach for industrial glass furnaces. A simulation model for a glass furnace is developed using mass and energy balances, and heat loss equations for the different zones and empirical equations based on operating practices. The model is checked with field data from end fired industrial glass furnaces in India. The simulation model enables calculation of the energy performance of a given furnace design. The model results show the potential for improvement and the impact of different operating and design preferences on specific energy consumption. A case study for a 100 TPD end fired furnace is presented. An achievable minimum energy consumption of about 3830 kJ/kg is estimated for this furnace. The useful heat carried by glass is about 53% of the heat supplied by the fuel. Actual furnaces operating at these production scales have a potential for reduction in energy consumption of about 20-25%

Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2008-01-01

Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the

First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

2009-04-01

A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

An Empirical Model for Energy Storage Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosewater, David Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Scott, Paul [TransPower, Poway, CA (United States)

2016-03-17

Improved models of energy storage systems are needed to enable the electric grid’s adaptation to increasing penetration of renewables. This paper develops a generic empirical model of energy storage system performance agnostic of type, chemistry, design or scale. Parameters for this model are calculated using test procedures adapted from the US DOE Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage. We then assess the accuracy of this model for predicting the performance of the TransPower GridSaver – a 1 MW rated lithium-ion battery system that underwent laboratory experimentation and analysis. The developed model predicts a range of energy storage system performance based on the uncertainty of estimated model parameters. Finally, this model can be used to better understand the integration and coordination of energy storage on the electric grid.

Modelling the energy transition in cities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huber, Felix [Wuppertal Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Schwarze, Bjoern; Spiekermann, Klaus; Wegener, Michael [Spiekermann und Wegener Urban and Regional Research, Dortmund (Germany)

2013-09-01

The history of cities is a history of energy transitions. In the medieval city heating and cooking occurred with wood and peat. The growth of the industrial city in the 19th century was built on coal and electricity. The sprawling metropolis of the 20th century was made possible by oil and gas. How will the city of the 21st century look after the next energy transition from fossil to renewable energy? This paper reports on the extension of an urban land-use transport interaction model to a model of the energy transition in the Ruhr Area, a five-million agglomeration in Germany. The paper presents the planned model extensions and how they are to be integrated into the model and shows first preliminary results.

Model of Nordic energy market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

1992-01-01

Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

A model for dark energy decay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abdalla, Elcio, E-mail: eabdalla@usp.br [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 66318, 05315-970, São Paulo (Brazil); Graef, L.L., E-mail: leilagraef@usp.br [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 66318, 05315-970, São Paulo (Brazil); Wang, Bin, E-mail: wang_b@sjtu.edu.cn [INPAC and Department of Physics, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 200240 Shanghai (China)

2013-11-04

We discuss a model of nonperturbative decay of dark energy. We suggest the possibility that this model can provide a mechanism from the field theory to realize the energy transfer from dark energy into dark matter, which is the requirement to alleviate the coincidence problem. The advantage of the model is the fact that it accommodates a mean life compatible with the age of the universe. We also argue that supersymmetry is a natural set up, though not essential.

Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

1989-01-01

The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Auke Hoekstra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The energy domain is still dominated by equilibrium models that underestimate both the dangers and opportunities related to climate change. In reality, climate and energy systems contain tipping points, feedback loops, and exponential developments. This paper describes how to create realistic energy transition management models: quantitative models that can discover profitable pathways from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We review the literature regarding agent-based economics, disruptive innovation, and transition management and determine the following requirements. Actors must be detailed, heterogeneous, interacting, learning, and strategizing. Technology should be represented as a detailed and heterogeneous portfolio that can develop in a bottom-up manner, using endogenous feedback loops. Assumptions about discount rates and the social cost of carbon should be configurable. The model should contain interactions between the global, national, local, and individual level. A review of modelling techniques shows that equilibrium models are unsuitable and that system dynamics and discrete event simulation are too limited. The agent-based approach is found to be uniquely suited for the complex adaptive sociotechnical systems that must be modelled. But the choice for agent-based models does not mean a rejection of other approaches because they can be accommodated within the agent-based framework. We conclude with practical guidelines.

The difference between energy consumption and energy cost: Modelling energy tariff structures for water resource recovery facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Aymerich, I; Rieger, L; Sobhani, R; Rosso, D; Corominas, Ll

2015-09-15

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of incorporating more realistic energy cost models (based on current energy tariff structures) into existing water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) process models when evaluating technologies and cost-saving control strategies. In this paper, we first introduce a systematic framework to model energy usage at WRRFs and a generalized structure to describe energy tariffs including the most common billing terms. Secondly, this paper introduces a detailed energy cost model based on a Spanish energy tariff structure coupled with a WRRF process model to evaluate several control strategies and provide insights into the selection of the contracted power structure. The results for a 1-year evaluation on a 115,000 population-equivalent WRRF showed monthly cost differences ranging from 7 to 30% when comparing the detailed energy cost model to an average energy price. The evaluation of different aeration control strategies also showed that using average energy prices and neglecting energy tariff structures may lead to biased conclusions when selecting operating strategies or comparing technologies or equipment. The proposed framework demonstrated that for cost minimization, control strategies should be paired with a specific optimal contracted power. Hence, the design of operational and control strategies must take into account the local energy tariff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased intake of energy-dense diet and negative energy balance in a mouse model of chronic psychosocial defeat.

Science.gov (United States)

Coccurello, Roberto; Romano, Adele; Giacovazzo, Giacomo; Tempesta, Bianca; Fiore, Marco; Giudetti, Anna Maria; Marrocco, Ilaria; Altieri, Fabio; Moles, Anna; Gaetani, Silvana

2018-06-01

Chronic exposure to stress may represent a risk factor for developing metabolic and eating disorders, mostly driven by the overconsumption of easily accessible energy-dense palatable food, although the mechanisms involved remain still unclear. In this study, we used an ethologically oriented murine model of chronic stress caused by chronic psychosocial defeat (CPD) to investigate the effects of unrestricted access to a palatable high fat diet (HFD) on food intake, body weight, energy homeostasis, and expression of different brain neuropeptides. Our aim was to shed light on the mechanisms responsible for body weight and body composition changes due to chronic social stress. In our model of subordinate (defeated), mice (CPD) cohabitated in constant sensory contact with dominants, being forced to interact on daily basis, and were offered ad libitum access either to an HFD or to a control diet (CD). Control mice (of the same strain as CPD mice) were housed in pairs and left unstressed in their home cage (UN). In all these mice, we evaluated body weight, different adipose depots, energy metabolism, caloric intake, and neuropeptide expression. CPD mice increased the intake of HFD and reduced body weight in the presence of enhanced lipid oxidation. Resting energy expenditure and interscapular brown adipose tissue (iBAT) were increased in CPD mice, whereas epididymal adipose tissue increased only in HFD-fed unstressed mice. Propiomelanocortin mRNA levels in hypothalamic arcuate nucleus increased only in HFD-fed unstressed mice. Oxytocin mRNA levels in the paraventricular nucleus and neuropeptide Y mRNA levels within the arcuate were increased only in CD-fed CPD mice. In the arcuate, CART was increased in HFD-fed UN mice and in CD-fed CPD mice, while HFD intake suppressed CART increase in defeated animals. In the basolateral amygdala, CART expression was increased only in CPD animals on HFD. CPD appears to uncouple the intake of HFD from energy homeostasis causing higher

A method for state of energy estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on neural network model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Guangzhong; Zhang, Xu; Zhang, Chenbin; Chen, Zonghai

2015-01-01

The state-of-energy is an important evaluation index for energy optimization and management of power battery systems in electric vehicles. Unlike the state-of-charge which represents the residual energy of the battery in traditional applications, state-of-energy is integral result of battery power, which is the product of current and terminal voltage. On the other hand, like state-of-charge, the state-of-energy has an effect on terminal voltage. Therefore, it is hard to solve the nonlinear problems between state-of-energy and terminal voltage, which will complicate the estimation of a battery's state-of-energy. To address this issue, a method based on wavelet-neural-network-based battery model and particle filter estimator is presented for the state-of-energy estimation. The wavelet-neural-network based battery model is used to simulate the entire dynamic electrical characteristics of batteries. The temperature and discharge rate are also taken into account to improve model accuracy. Besides, in order to suppress the measurement noises of current and voltage, a particle filter estimator is applied to estimate cell state-of-energy. Experimental results on LiFePO_4 batteries indicate that the wavelet-neural-network based battery model simulates battery dynamics robustly with high accuracy and the estimation value based on the particle filter estimator converges to the real state-of-energy within an error of ±4%. - Highlights: • State-of-charge is replaced by state-of-energy to determine cells residual energy. • The battery state-space model is established based on a neural network. • Temperature and current influence are considered to improve the model accuracy. • The particle filter is used for state-of-energy estimation to improve accuracy. • The robustness of new method is validated under dynamic experimental conditions.

Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Kandler A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saxon, Aron R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lundstrom, Blake R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cao, Ziwei [SunPower Corporation; Roc, Albert [SunPower Corp.

2017-08-25

Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Storage System: Preprint Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are being deployed on the electrical grid for a variety of purposes, such as to smooth fluctuations in solar renewable power generation. The lifetime of these batteries will vary depending on their thermal environment and how they are charged and discharged. To optimal utilization of a battery over its lifetime requires characterization of its performance degradation under different storage and cycling conditions. Aging tests were conducted on commercial graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion cells. A general lifetime prognostic model framework is applied to model changes in capacity and resistance as the battery degrades. Across 9 aging test conditions from 0oC to 55oC, the model predicts capacity fade with 1.4 percent RMS error and resistance growth with 15 percent RMS error. The model, recast in state variable form with 8 states representing separate fade mechanisms, is used to extrapolate lifetime for example applications of the energy storage system integrated with renewable photovoltaic (PV) power generation.

Improving energy efficiency and smart grid program analysis with agent-based end-use forecasting models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, Jerry

2010-01-01

Electric utilities and regulators face difficult challenges evaluating new energy efficiency and smart grid programs prompted, in large part, by recent state and federal mandates and financial incentives. It is increasingly difficult to separate electricity use impacts of individual utility programs from the impacts of increasingly stringent appliance and building efficiency standards, increasing electricity prices, appliance manufacturer efficiency improvements, energy program interactions and other factors. This study reviews traditional approaches used to evaluate electric utility energy efficiency and smart-grid programs and presents an agent-based end-use modeling approach that resolves many of the shortcomings of traditional approaches. Data for a representative sample of utility customers in a Midwestern US utility are used to evaluate energy efficiency and smart grid program targets over a fifteen-year horizon. Model analysis indicates that a combination of the two least stringent efficiency and smart grid program scenarios provides peak hour reductions one-third greater than the most stringent smart grid program suggesting that reductions in peak demand requirements are more feasible when both efficiency and smart grid programs are considered together. Suggestions on transitioning from traditional end-use models to agent-based end-use models are provided.

The Model Method: Singapore Children's Tool for Representing and Solving Algebraic Word Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Swee Fong; Lee, Kerry

2009-01-01

Solving arithmetic and algebraic word problems is a key component of the Singapore elementary mathematics curriculum. One heuristic taught, the model method, involves drawing a diagram to represent key information in the problem. We describe the model method and a three-phase theoretical framework supporting its use. We conducted 2 studies to…

Ionization Energies, Electron Affinities, and Polarization Energies of Organic Molecular Crystals: Quantitative Estimations from a Polarizable Continuum Model (PCM)–Tuned Range-Separated Density Functional Approach

KAUST Repository

Sun, Haitao

2016-05-16

We propose a new methodology for the first-principles description of the electronic properties relevant for charge transport in organic molecular crystals. This methodology, which is based on the combination of a non-empirical, optimally tuned range-separated hybrid functional with the polarizable continuum model, is applied to a series of eight representative molecular semiconductor crystals. We show that it provides ionization energies, electron affinities, and transport gaps in very good agreement with experimental values as well as with the results of many-body perturbation theory within the GW approximation at a fraction of the computational costs. Hence, this approach represents an easily applicable and computationally efficient tool to estimate the gas-to-crystal-phase shifts of the frontier-orbital quasiparticle energies in organic electronic materials.

A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

2004-01-14

Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

2014-01-13

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Andersen, Frits; Alberg Østergaard, Poul

2015-01-01

This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out b...... by 11 university and industry partners has improved the basis for decision-making within energy planning and energy scenario making by providing new and improved tools and methods for energy systems analyses.......This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out...

Directory of Energy Information Administration models 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-07-01

This directory revises and updates the Directory of Energy Information Administration Models 1995, DOE/EIA-0293(95), Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy, July 1995. Four models have been deleted in this directory as they are no longer being used: (1) Market Penetration Model for Ground-Water Heat Pump Systems (MPGWHP); (2) Market Penetration Model for Residential Rooftop PV Systems (MPRESPV-PC); (3) Market Penetration Model for Active and Passive Solar Technologies (MPSOLARPC); and (4) Revenue Requirements Modeling System (RRMS).

Hydrogen Economy Model for Nearly Net-Zero Cities with Exergy Rationale and Energy-Water Nexus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birol Kılkış

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The energy base of urban settlements requires greater integration of renewable energy sources. This study presents a “hydrogen city” model with two cycles at the district and building levels. The main cycle comprises of hydrogen gas production, hydrogen storage, and a hydrogen distribution network. The electrolysis of water is based on surplus power from wind turbines and third-generation solar photovoltaic thermal panels. Hydrogen is then used in central fuel cells to meet the power demand of urban infrastructure. Hydrogen-enriched biogas that is generated from city wastes supplements this approach. The second cycle is the hydrogen flow in each low-exergy building that is connected to the hydrogen distribution network to supply domestic fuel cells. Make-up water for fuel cells includes treated wastewater to complete an energy-water nexus. The analyses are supported by exergy-based evaluation metrics. The Rational Exergy Management Efficiency of the hydrogen city model can reach 0.80, which is above the value of conventional district energy systems, and represents related advantages for CO2 emission reductions. The option of incorporating low-enthalpy geothermal energy resources at about 80 °C to support the model is evaluated. The hydrogen city model is applied to a new settlement area with an expected 200,000 inhabitants to find that the proposed model can enable a nearly net-zero exergy district status. The results have implications for settlements using hydrogen energy towards meeting net-zero targets.

An approach for evaluating utility-financed energy conservation programs. The economic welfare model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costello, K W; Galen, P S

1985-09-01

The main objective of this paper is to illustrate how the economic welfare model may be used to measure the economic efficiency effects of utility-financed energy conservation programs. The economic welfare model is the theoretical structure that was used in this paper to develop a cost/benefit test. This test defines the net benefit of a conservation program as the change in the sum of consumer and producer surplus. The authors advocate the operation of the proposed cost/benefit model as a screening tool to eliminate from more detailed review those programs where the expected net benefits are less than zero. The paper presents estimates of the net benefit derived from different specified cost/benefit models for four illustrative pilot programs. These models are representative of those which have been applied or are under review by utilities and public utility commissions. From the numerical results, it is shown that net benefit is greatly affected by the assumptions made about the nature of welfare gains to program participants. The main conclusion that emerges from the numerical results is that the selection of a cost/benefit model is a crucial element in evaluating utility-financed energy conservation programs. The paper also briefly addresses some of the major unresolved issues in utility-financed energy conservation programs. 2 figs., 3 tabs., 10 refs. (A.V.)

Rapid energy modeling for existing buildings: Testing the business and environmental potential through an experiment at Autodesk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deodhar, Aniruddha; Stewart, Emma; Young, Rahul; Khan, Haider

2010-09-15

Retrofits of existing buildings represent a huge, growing market and an opportunity to achieve some of the most sizable and cost-effective carbon reductions in any sector of the economy. More 'zero energy' and 'carbon neutral' buildings are being conceived daily by combining energy efficiency measures with renewable energy technologies. However, for all the progress, the building industry faces technical and cost challenges in identifying the highest potential retrofit candidates. This presentation investigates one potential solution, a technology driven workflow called rapid energy modeling, to accelerate and scale the process of analyzing performance for existing buildings in prioritizing improvements.

The immature dentate gyrus represents a shared phenotype of mouse models of epilepsy and psychiatric disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Rick; Kobayashi, Katsunori; Hagihara, Hideo; Kogan, Jeffrey H; Miyake, Shinichi; Tajinda, Katsunori; Walton, Noah M; Gross, Adam K; Heusner, Carrie L; Chen, Qian; Tamura, Kouichi; Miyakawa, Tsuyoshi; Matsumoto, Mitsuyuki

2013-06-01

There is accumulating evidence to suggest psychiatric disorders, such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, share common etiologies, pathophysiologies, genetics, and drug responses with many of the epilepsies. Here, we explored overlaps in cellular/molecular, electrophysiological, and behavioral phenotypes between putative mouse models of bipolar disorder/schizophrenia and epilepsy. We tested the hypothesis that an immature dentate gyrus (iDG), whose association with psychosis in patients has recently been reported, represents a common phenotype of both diseases. Behaviors of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II alpha (α-CaMKII) heterozygous knock-out (KO) mice, which are a representative bipolar disorder/schizophrenia model displaying iDG, and pilocarpine-treated mice, which are a representative epilepsy model, were tested followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)/immunohistochemistry for mRNA/protein expression associated with an iDG phenotype. In vitro electrophysiology of dentate gyrus granule cells (DG GCs) was examined in pilocarpine-treated epileptic mice. The two disease models demonstrated similar behavioral deficits, such as hyperactivity, poor working memory performance, and social withdrawal. Significant reductions in mRNA expression and immunoreactivity of the mature neuronal marker calbindin and concomitant increases in mRNA expression and immunoreactivity of the immature neuronal marker calretinin represent iDG signatures that are present in both mice models. Electrophysiologically, we have confirmed that DG GCs from pilocarpine-treated mice represent an immature state. A significant decrease in hippocampal α-CaMKII protein levels was also found in both models. Our data have shown iDG signatures from mouse models of both bipolar disorder/schizophrenia and epilepsy. The evidence suggests that the iDG may, in part, be responsible for the abnormal behavioral phenotype, and that the underlying pathophysiologies in epilepsy

Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Léo eBenichou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Effect of wind energy system performance on optimal renewable energy model - an analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iniyan, S.; Jagadeesan, T.R.

1998-01-01

The Optimal Renewable Energy Model (OREM) has been developed to determine the optimum level of renewable energy sources utilisation in India for the year 2020-21. The model aims at minimising cost/efficiency ratio and determines the optimum allocation of different renewable energy sources for various end-uses. The extent of social acceptance level, potential limit, demand and reliability will decide the renewable energy distribution pattern and are hence used as constraints in the model. In this paper, the performance and reliability of wind energy system and its effects on OREM model has been analysed. The demonstration windfarm (4 MW) which is situated in Muppandal, a village in the southern part of India, has been selected for the study. The windfarm has 20 wind turbine machines of 200 KW capacity . The average technical availability, real availability and capacity factor have been analysed from 1991 to 1995 and they are found to be 94.1%, 76.4% and 25.5% respectively. The reliability factor of wind energy systems is found to be 0.5 at 10,000 hours. The OREM model is analysed considering the above said factors for wind energy system, solar energy system and biomass energy systems. The model selects wind energy for pumping end-use to an extent of 0.3153 x10 15 KJ. (Author)

Modelling Socio-Environmental Sensitivities: How Public Responses to Low Carbon Energy Technologies Could Shape the UK Energy System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brighid Moran Jay

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public’s socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD and all show increased cost (especially in ECO.

Modelling socio-environmental sensitivities: how public responses to low carbon energy technologies could shape the UK energy system.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran Jay, Brighid; Howard, David; Hughes, Nick; Whitaker, Jeanette; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2014-01-01

Low carbon energy technologies are not deployed in a social vacuum; there are a variety of complex ways in which people understand and engage with these technologies and the changing energy system overall. However, the role of the public's socio-environmental sensitivities to low carbon energy technologies and their responses to energy deployments does not receive much serious attention in planning decarbonisation pathways to 2050. Resistance to certain resources and technologies based on particular socio-environmental sensitivities would alter the portfolio of options available which could shape how the energy system achieves decarbonisation (the decarbonisation pathway) as well as affecting the cost and achievability of decarbonisation. Thus, this paper presents a series of three modelled scenarios which illustrate the way that a variety of socio-environmental sensitivities could impact the development of the energy system and the decarbonisation pathway. The scenarios represent risk aversion (DREAD) which avoids deployment of potentially unsafe large-scale technology, local protectionism (NIMBY) that constrains systems to their existing spatial footprint, and environmental awareness (ECO) where protection of natural resources is paramount. Very different solutions for all three sets of constraints are identified; some seem slightly implausible (DREAD) and all show increased cost (especially in ECO).

Cosmological model with anisotropic dark energy and self-similarity of the second kind

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandt, Carlos F. Charret; Silva, Maria de Fatima A. da; Rocha, Jaime F. Villas da; Chan, Roberto

2006-01-01

We study the evolution of an anisotropic fluid with self-similarity of the second kind. We found a class of solution to the Einstein field equations by assuming an equation of state where the radial pressure of the fluid is proportional to its energy density (p r =ωρ) and that the fluid moves along time-like geodesics. The equation of state and the anisotropy with self-similarity of second kind imply ω = -1. The energy conditions, geometrical and physical properties of the solutions are studied. We have found that for the parameter α=-1/2 , it may represent a Big Rip cosmological model. (author)

Modeling and Depletion Simulations for a High Flux Isotope Reactor Cycle with a Representative Experiment Loading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chandler, David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Betzler, Ben [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Hirtz, Gregory John [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division; Sunny, Eva [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division

2016-09-01

The purpose of this report is to document a high-fidelity VESTA/MCNP High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) core model that features a new, representative experiment loading. This model, which represents the current, high-enriched uranium fuel core, will serve as a reference for low-enriched uranium conversion studies, safety-basis calculations, and other research activities. A new experiment loading model was developed to better represent current, typical experiment loadings, in comparison to the experiment loading included in the model for Cycle 400 (operated in 2004). The new experiment loading model for the flux trap target region includes full length ²⁵²Cf production targets, ⁷⁵Se production capsules, ⁶³Ni production capsules, a ¹⁸⁸W production capsule, and various materials irradiation targets. Fully loaded ²³⁸Pu production targets are modeled in eleven vertical experiment facilities located in the beryllium reflector. Other changes compared to the Cycle 400 model are the high-fidelity modeling of the fuel element side plates and the material composition of the control elements. Results obtained from the depletion simulations with the new model are presented, with a focus on time-dependent isotopic composition of irradiated fuel and single cycle isotope production metrics.

A cultural model of household energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lutzenhiser, Loren

1992-01-01

In this paper, we consider the development of demand-side research, from an early interest in conservation behavior to a later focus on physical, economic, psychological and social models of energy consumption. Unfortunately, none of these models account satisfactorily for measured energy consumption in the residential sector. Growing interest in the end-uses of energy (e.g. in support of load forecasting, demand-side management and least-cost utility planning), increasing international studies of energy use, and continuing work in the energy and lifestyles research tradition now support an emerging cultural perspective on household energy use. The ecological foundations of the cultural model and its applications in energy research are discussed, along with some of the analytic consequences of this approach. (author)

Energy Cascade in Fermi-Pasta Models

Science.gov (United States)

Ponno, A.; Bambusi, D.

We show that, for long-wavelength initial conditions, the FPU dynamics is described, up to a certain time, by two KdV-like equations, which represent the resonant Hamiltonian normal form of the system. The energy cascade taking place in the system is then quantitatively characterized by arguments of dimensional analysis based on such equations.

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Visschers, Vivianne H.M.; Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael

2011-01-01

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: → Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. → Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. → Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. → Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. → Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Visschers, Vivianne H.M., E-mail: vvisschers@ethz.ch [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael [ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Consumer Behavior, Universitaetsstrasse 22 CHN J 75.2, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-06-15

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed. - Highlights: > Explanatory model of determinants of nuclear power acceptance was studied in the representative survey. > Perceived benefits for a secure energy supply had the largest influence on acceptance. > Perceived benefits for the climate seemed less influential on acceptance. > Affect had a central role in the explanatory model. > Implications for communication about nuclear power plants are discussed.

77 FR 24940 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-26

... 5-year average ratio with heating oil prices published in the Monthly Energy Review, but the propane... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program... and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: In this notice, the U.S...

SGS Modeling of the Internal Energy Equation in LES of Supersonic Channel Flow

Science.gov (United States)

Raghunath, Sriram; Brereton, Giles

2011-11-01

DNS of fully-developed turbulent supersonic channel flows (Reτ = 190) at up to Mach 3 indicate that the turbulent heat fluxes depend only weakly on Mach number, while the viscous dissipation and pressure dilatation do so strongly. Moreover, pressure dilatation makes a significant contribution to the internal energy budget at Mach 3 and higher. The balance between these terms is critical to determining the temperature (and so molecular viscosity) from the internal energy equation and so, in LES of these flows, it is essential to use accurate SGS models for the viscous dissipation and the pressure dilatation. In this talk, we present LES results for supersonic channel flow, using SGS models for these terms that are based on the resolved-scale dilatation, an inverse timescale, and SGS momentum fluxes, which intrinsically represent this Mach number effect.

Energy modeling: nuclear energy as China's main energy after 2040

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo Xingqu

1987-01-01

According to the energy modeling and the strategic forecast of China's economic development and population, the energy demand in China in the coming century has been calculated yearly by computer simulation. It is shown by the calculation results that the primary energy consumption in 2050 will be 3.37-4.25 times as that of 2000. The fossil energy will still be the main energy during the early stage of 21st century, but it will be cut down rapidly since 2020s as its annual consumption is increased to 1.656-2.044 x 10 9 tce/a. Because the fossil fuel ressources in China are limited, more and more fossil fuel will be mainly turned to chemical products, and the environmental pollution will be serious if we still use the fossil as a main fuel widely. The amount of renewable energy will be increasing, but its share in the primary energy consumption will be cut down from 36% to about 20% during the first half of next century and then will maintain this portion. In this case, the nuclear energy will be developed rapidly during the early stage of next century and will become the main energy since 2040. The methodology of energy forecast has also been reviewed

Metamaterial Model of Tachyonic Dark Energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Igor I. Smolyaninov

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Dark energy with negative pressure and positive energy density is believed to be responsible for the accelerated expansion of the universe. Quite a few theoretical models of dark energy are based on tachyonic fields interacting with itself and normal (bradyonic matter. Here, we propose an experimental model of tachyonic dark energy based on hyperbolic metamaterials. Wave equation describing propagation of extraordinary light inside hyperbolic metamaterials exhibits 2 + 1 dimensional Lorentz symmetry. The role of time in the corresponding effective 3D Minkowski spacetime is played by the spatial coordinate aligned with the optical axis of the metamaterial. Nonlinear optical Kerr effect bends this spacetime resulting in effective gravitational force between extraordinary photons. We demonstrate that this model has a self-interacting tachyonic sector having negative effective pressure and positive effective energy density. Moreover, a composite multilayer SiC-Si hyperbolic metamaterial exhibits closely separated tachyonic and bradyonic sectors in the long wavelength infrared range. This system may be used as a laboratory model of inflation and late time acceleration of the universe.

A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marjaneh Issapour

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

Expand the Modeling Capabilities of DOE's EnergyPlus Building Energy Simulation Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Don Shirey

2008-02-28

EnergyPlus{trademark} is a new generation computer software analysis tool that has been developed, tested, and commercialized to support DOE's Building Technologies (BT) Program in terms of whole-building, component, and systems R&D (http://www.energyplus.gov). It is also being used to support evaluation and decision making of zero energy building (ZEB) energy efficiency and supply technologies during new building design and existing building retrofits. Version 1.0 of EnergyPlus was released in April 2001, followed by semiannual updated versions over the ensuing seven-year period. This report summarizes work performed by the University of Central Florida's Florida Solar Energy Center (UCF/FSEC) to expand the modeling capabilities of EnergyPlus. The project tasks involved implementing, testing, and documenting the following new features or enhancement of existing features: (1) A model for packaged terminal heat pumps; (2) A model for gas engine-driven heat pumps with waste heat recovery; (3) Proper modeling of window screens; (4) Integrating and streamlining EnergyPlus air flow modeling capabilities; (5) Comfort-based controls for cooling and heating systems; and (6) An improved model for microturbine power generation with heat recovery. UCF/FSEC located existing mathematical models or generated new model for these features and incorporated them into EnergyPlus. The existing or new models were (re)written using Fortran 90/95 programming language and were integrated within EnergyPlus in accordance with the EnergyPlus Programming Standard and Module Developer's Guide. Each model/feature was thoroughly tested and identified errors were repaired. Upon completion of each model implementation, the existing EnergyPlus documentation (e.g., Input Output Reference and Engineering Document) was updated with information describing the new or enhanced feature. Reference data sets were generated for several of the features to aid program users in selecting proper

The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chae, Kyu Nam

1995-02-01

An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brunskog, Jonas

2012-01-01

In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

Lightweight Expression of Granular Objects (LEGO) Content Modeling Using the SNOMED CT Observables Model to Represent Nursing Assessment Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christie

2016-01-01

This poster presentation presents a content modeling strategy using the SNOMED CT Observable Model to represent large amounts of detailed clinical data in a consistent and computable manner that can support multiple use cases. Lightweight Expression of Granular Objects (LEGOs) represent question/answer pairs on clinical data collection forms, where a question is modeled by a (usually) post-coordinated SNOMED CT expression. LEGOs transform electronic patient data into a normalized consumable, which means that the expressions can be treated as extensions of the SNOMED CT hierarchies for the purpose of performing subsumption queries and other analytics. Utilizing the LEGO approach for modeling clinical data obtained from a nursing admission assessment provides a foundation for data exchange across disparate information systems and software applications. Clinical data exchange of computable LEGO patient information enables the development of more refined data analytics, data storage and clinical decision support.

Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

CERN Document Server

Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

2013-01-01

The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

Principle of Minimum Energy in Magnetic Reconnection in a Self-organized Critical Model for Solar Flares

Science.gov (United States)

Farhang, Nastaran; Safari, Hossein; Wheatland, Michael S.

2018-05-01

Solar flares are an abrupt release of magnetic energy in the Sun’s atmosphere due to reconnection of the coronal magnetic field. This occurs in response to turbulent flows at the photosphere that twist the coronal field. Similar to earthquakes, solar flares represent the behavior of a complex system, and expectedly their energy distribution follows a power law. We present a statistical model based on the principle of minimum energy in a coronal loop undergoing magnetic reconnection, which is described as an avalanche process. We show that the distribution of peaks for the flaring events in this self-organized critical system is scale-free. The obtained power-law index of 1.84 ± 0.02 for the peaks is in good agreement with satellite observations of soft X-ray flares. The principle of minimum energy can be applied for general avalanche models to describe many other phenomena.

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP): An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K. R.; Venkatesh, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

2009-09-01

Energy system modeling can be intentionally or unintentionally misused by decision-makers. This report describes how both can be minimized through careful use of models and thorough understanding of their underlying approaches and assumptions. The analysis summarized here assesses the impact that model and data choices have on forecasting energy systems by comparing seven different electric-sector models. This analysis was coordinated by the Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP), a collaboration among governmental, academic, and nongovernmental participants.

Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tilley, Luke A.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

Visual prosthesis wireless energy transfer system optimal modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xueping; Yang, Yuan; Gao, Yong

2014-01-16

Wireless energy transfer system is an effective way to solve the visual prosthesis energy supply problems, theoretical modeling of the system is the prerequisite to do optimal energy transfer system design. On the basis of the ideal model of the wireless energy transfer system, according to visual prosthesis application condition, the system modeling is optimized. During the optimal modeling, taking planar spiral coils as the coupling devices between energy transmitter and receiver, the effect of the parasitic capacitance of the transfer coil is considered, and especially the concept of biological capacitance is proposed to consider the influence of biological tissue on the energy transfer efficiency, resulting in the optimal modeling's more accuracy for the actual application. The simulation data of the optimal model in this paper is compared with that of the previous ideal model, the results show that under high frequency condition, the parasitic capacitance of inductance and biological capacitance considered in the optimal model could have great impact on the wireless energy transfer system. The further comparison with the experimental data verifies the validity and accuracy of the optimal model proposed in this paper. The optimal model proposed in this paper has a higher theoretical guiding significance for the wireless energy transfer system's further research, and provide a more precise model reference for solving the power supply problem in visual prosthesis clinical application.

Holography and holographic dark energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yungui; Zhang Yuanzhong

2005-01-01

The holographic principle is used to discuss the holographic dark energy model. We find that the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy bound is far from saturation under certain conditions. A more general constraint on the parameter of the holographic dark energy model is also derived

A Parametric Energy Model for Energy Management of Long Belt Conveyors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tebello Mathaba

2015-12-01

Full Text Available As electricity prices continue to rise, the increasing need for energy management requires better understanding of models for energy-consuming applications, such as conveyor belts. Conveyor belts are used in a wide range of industries, including power generation, mining and mineral processing. Conveyor technological advances are leading to increasingly long conveyor belts being commissioned. Thus, the energy consumption of each individual belt conveyor unit is becoming increasingly significant. This paper proposes a generic energy model for belt conveyors with long troughed belts. The model has a two-parameter power equation, and it uses a partial differential equation to capture the variable amount of material mass per unit length throughout the belt length. Verification results show that the power consumption calculations of the newly proposed simpler model are consistent with those of a known non-linear model with an error of less than 4%. The online parameter identification set-up of the model is proposed. Simulations indicate that the parameters can be identified successfully from data with up to 15% measurement noise. Results show that the proposed model gives better predictions of the power consumed and material delivered by a long conveyor belt than the steady-state models in the current literature.

Structure model of energy efficiency indicators and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Li-Ming; Chen, Bai-Sheng; Bor, Yun-Chang; Wu, Yin-Chin

2007-01-01

For the purposes of energy conservation and environmental protection, the government of Taiwan has instigated long-term policies to continuously encourage and assist industry in improving the efficiency of energy utilization. While multiple actions have led to practical energy saving to a limited extent, no strong evidence of improvement in energy efficiency was observed from the energy efficiency indicators (EEI) system, according to the annual national energy statistics and survey. A structural analysis of EEI is needed in order to understand the role that energy efficiency plays in the EEI system. This work uses the Taylor series expansion to develop a structure model for EEI at the level of the process sector of industry. The model is developed on the premise that the design parameters of the process are used in comparison with the operational parameters for energy differences. The utilization index of production capability and the variation index of energy utilization are formulated in the model to describe the differences between EEIs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods for the analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings are derived from the model. Through structural analysis, the model showed that, while the performance of EEI is proportional to the process utilization index of production capability, it is possible that energy may develop in a direction opposite to that of EEI. This helps to explain, at least in part, the inconsistency between EEI and energy savings. An energy-intensive steel plant in Taiwan was selected to show the application of the model. The energy utilization efficiency of the plant was evaluated and the amount of energy that had been saved or over-used in the production process was estimated. Some insights gained from the model outcomes are helpful to further enhance energy efficiency in the plant

Strategic planning for minimizing CO2 emissions using LP model based on forecasted energy demand by PSO Algorithm and ANN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yousefi, M.; Omid, M.; Rafiee, Sh. [Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghaderi, S. F. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-07-01

Iran's primary energy consumption (PEC) was modeled as a linear function of five socioeconomic and meteorological explanatory variables using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques. Results revealed that ANN outperforms PSO model to predict test data. However, PSO technique is simple and provided us with a closed form expression to forecast PEC. Energy demand was forecasted by PSO and ANN using represented scenario. Finally, adapting about 10% renewable energy revealed that based on the developed linear programming (LP) model under minimum CO2 emissions, Iran will emit about 2520 million metric tons CO2 in 2025. The LP model indicated that maximum possible development of hydropower, geothermal and wind energy resources will satisfy the aim of minimization of CO2 emissions. Therefore, the main strategic policy in order to reduce CO2 emissions would be exploitation of these resources.

Capabilities and accuracy of energy modelling software

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Osburn, L

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Energy modelling can be used in a number of different ways to fulfill different needs, including certification within building regulations or green building rating tools. Energy modelling can also be used in order to try and predict what the energy...

Energy Model of Neuron Activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Romanyshyn, Yuriy; Smerdov, Andriy; Petrytska, Svitlana

2017-02-01

On the basis of the neurophysiological strength-duration (amplitude-duration) curve of neuron activation (which relates the threshold amplitude of a rectangular current pulse of neuron activation to the pulse duration), as well as with the use of activation energy constraint (the threshold curve corresponds to the energy threshold of neuron activation by a rectangular current pulse), an energy model of neuron activation by a single current pulse has been constructed. The constructed model of activation, which determines its spectral properties, is a bandpass filter. Under the condition of minimum-phase feature of the neuron activation model, on the basis of Hilbert transform, the possibilities of phase-frequency response calculation from its amplitude-frequency response have been considered. Approximation to the amplitude-frequency response by the response of the Butterworth filter of the first order, as well as obtaining the pulse response corresponding to this approximation, give us the possibility of analyzing the efficiency of activating current pulses of various shapes, including analysis in accordance with the energy constraint.

Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report is an auxiliary document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(93)). It presents a detailed discussion of the assumptions underlying the forecasts in the AEO. The energy modeling system is an economic equilibrium system, with component demand modules representing end-use energy consumption by major end-use sector. Another set of modules represents petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity supply patterns and pricing. A separate module generates annual forecasts of important macroeconomic and industrial output variables. Interactions among these components of energy markets generate projections of prices and quantities for which energy supply equals energy demand. This equilibrium modeling system is referred to as the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). The supply models in IFFS for oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity determine supply and price for each fuel depending upon consumption levels, while the demand models determine consumption depending upon end-use price. IFFS solves for market equilibrium for each fuel by balancing supply and demand to produce an energy balance in each forecast year

Reaching carbon neutral transport sector in Denmark - Evidence from the incorporation of modal shift into the TIMES energy system modeling framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tattini, Jacopo; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

2018-01-01

Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models have been rarely apt to represent human behaviour in transportation mode adoption. This paper contributes to the scientific literature by using an E4 model to analyse the long-term decarbonisation of the Danish transport sector. The study...

Developing a Model of the Irish Energy-System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Connolly, David; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2009-01-01

to create the model as it accounts for all sectors that need to be considered for integrating large penetrations of renewable energy: the electricity, heat and transport sectors. Before various alternative energy-systems could be investigated for Ireland, a reference model of the existing system needed...... is a vital step due to the scale of the change required for large-scale renewable penetrations. In this paper, a model of the Irish energy system is created to identify how Ireland can transform from a fossil-fuel to a renewable energy-system. The energy-systems-analysis tool, EnergyPLAN, was chosen...... to be created. This paper focuses on the construction of this reference model, in terms of the data gathered, the assumptions made and the accuracy achieved. In future work, this model will be used to investigate alternative energy-systems for Ireland, with the aim to determine the most effective energy system...

75 FR 13123 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Representative Average Unit Costs of Energy

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-18

... that of heating oil, based on the 2004-2008 averages for these two fuels. The source for these price... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Energy Conservation Program... and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: In this notice, the U.S...

Condition of the Department of Energy's Isotope Program. Hearing before the Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources Subcommittee of the Committee on Government Operations, House of Representatives, One Hundred Second Congress, Second Session, August 12, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

This is a hearing into the financial and organizational problems of the DOE's Isotope production and distribution program and how the problems affect research, medical care and industry in the US. US congressional members and representatives of the following entities presented statements: American Society for Nondestructive Testing, and the Nondestructive Testing Management Association (2 representatives); National Research Council (4 representatives); Council on Radioisotopes and Radiopharmaceuticals (2 representatives); Society for Nuclear Medicine and the American College of Nuclear Physicians (2 representatives); Energy Issues, GAO (2 representatives); DOE (2 representatives)

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

2018-06-01

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

Energy confinement in the T-10 tokamak and canonic profile models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dnestrovskii, Yu.N.; Pereverzev, G.V.

1988-01-01

A classification of experimental results on electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) is that T-10 tokamak is presented. Analysis of the experiments is consistent with two energy balance models. The first is based on the idea of profile consistency of the plasma current and pressure. The on-axis and off-axis ECRH as well as the heat wave propagation in T-10 can be reasonably represented in this way. In addition, this model allows the L to H mode transition to be described as the bifurcation of the solutions of a set of non-linear equations. The second model is based on the idea of a thermal pinch produced by a toroidal electric field. The electron temperature profiles under ohmic heating as well as under ECRH can be described by this model. Furthermore, this approach explains the cause of the confinement degradation under non-ohmic plasma heating (L-mode). (Author)

Vacuum energy from noncommutative models

Science.gov (United States)

Mignemi, S.; Samsarov, A.

2018-04-01

The vacuum energy is computed for a scalar field in a noncommutative background in several models of noncommutative geometry. One may expect that the noncommutativity introduces a natural cutoff on the ultraviolet divergences of field theory. Our calculations show however that this depends on the particular model considered: in some cases the divergences are suppressed and the vacuum energy is only logarithmically divergent, in other cases they are stronger than in the commutative theory.

Modeling and optimization of HVAC energy consumption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kusiak, Andrew; Li, Mingyang; Tang, Fan [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 - 1527 (United States)

2010-10-15

A data-driven approach for minimization of the energy to air condition a typical office-type facility is presented. Eight data-mining algorithms are applied to model the nonlinear relationship among energy consumption, control settings (supply air temperature and supply air static pressure), and a set of uncontrollable parameters. The multiple-linear perceptron (MLP) ensemble outperforms other models tested in this research, and therefore it is selected to model a chiller, a pump, a fan, and a reheat device. These four models are integrated into an energy optimization model with two decision variables, the setpoint of the supply air temperature and the static pressure in the air handling unit. The model is solved with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimization results have demonstrated the total energy consumed by the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system is reduced by over 7%. (author)

PCAET to understand, to build, and to implement - Territorial climate-air-energy plan - Elected representatives, what is to be known about PCAETs - Territorial climate-air-energy plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Camille; Moille, Sandra; Legendre, Solenn; Vesine, Eric; Carrega, Marie; Brender, Pierre; Lunet, Joseph; Chabanel, Christiane; Saliou, Nelly

2016-11-01

A first document is a guide which presents what needs to be known about the regulatory evolution of French climate plans. A first part describes how energy transition can be an opportunity for a territory, and outlines what would be the cost of inaction. A second part explains how the PCAET supports local action in the struggle against climate change and air pollution, and describes its articulation with other planning tools, urban planning documents, and other individual and voluntary actions for a sustainable development. The third part describes the different steps for action: preparation of objectives, questions to be addressed, realisation of a territory diagnosis, elaboration of a territorial strategy, definition and support of an action plan, and practical aspects. It also proposes a focus on the different sectors: housing and office building, transports, agriculture, forests and soils, industry and other economic activities, energy production and distribution and development of renewable energies, wastes. A second document briefly presents the regulatory evolution of climate plans within the frame of the law on energy transition and for a green growth, mainly at the destination of elected representatives. It presents this new legal framework for the PCAET, its role and ambitions, the opportunities and benefits it gives to elected representatives, and some examples. It briefly describes the articulation of the plan with other planning tools and approaches to sustainable development, indicates the main steps for the plan elaboration and implementation, how to validate a PCAET

Linearization effect in multifractal analysis: Insights from the Random Energy Model

Science.gov (United States)

Angeletti, Florian; Mézard, Marc; Bertin, Eric; Abry, Patrice

2011-08-01

The analysis of the linearization effect in multifractal analysis, and hence of the estimation of moments for multifractal processes, is revisited borrowing concepts from the statistical physics of disordered systems, notably from the analysis of the so-called Random Energy Model. Considering a standard multifractal process (compound Poisson motion), chosen as a simple representative example, we show the following: (i) the existence of a critical order q∗ beyond which moments, though finite, cannot be estimated through empirical averages, irrespective of the sample size of the observation; (ii) multifractal exponents necessarily behave linearly in q, for q>q∗. Tailoring the analysis conducted for the Random Energy Model to that of Compound Poisson motion, we provide explicative and quantitative predictions for the values of q∗ and for the slope controlling the linear behavior of the multifractal exponents. These quantities are shown to be related only to the definition of the multifractal process and not to depend on the sample size of the observation. Monte Carlo simulations, conducted over a large number of large sample size realizations of compound Poisson motion, comfort and extend these analyses.

Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

2016-04-01

vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the various models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. 3. Main body abstract Twenty separate entries were received by the deadline of 31 March 2015. They included simulations done with various versions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, but also of six other well-known mesoscale models. The various entries represent an excellent sample of the various models used in by the wind energy industry today. The analysis of the submitted time series included comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, e.g. frequency and Weibull A and k. The comparison also includes the observed and modeled temporal spectra. The various statistics were grouped as a function of the various models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, and the various integration methods. Many statistics have been computed and will be presented in addition to those shown in the Helsinki presentation. 4. Conclusions The analysis of the time series from twenty entries has shown to be an invaluable source of information about state of the art in wind modeling with mesoscale models. Biases between the simulated and observed wind speeds at hub heights (80-100 m AGL) from the various models are around ±1.0 m/s and fairly independent of the site and do not seem to be directly related to the model horizontal resolution used in the modeling. As probably expected, the wind speeds from the simulations using the various version of the WRF model cluster close to each other, especially in their description of the wind profile.

Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinsen, Thomas

2011-01-01

This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2020 non-ETS GHG emissions reduction targets on Ireland′s energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2013-01-01

This paper focuses on Ireland's ambitious target for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% below 2005 levels for sectors not covered by ETS (Non-ETS). Ireland is an interesting case study due to the role of agriculture (a particularly challenging sector with regard to GHG emissions reduction), that represents 29% of Ireland's GHG emissions compared with less than 10% for the EU. The analysis is carried out with the Irish TIMES model, a bottom-up energy systems modelling tool with detailed characterization of Ireland's energy system. The paper uses scenario analysis to provide pathways that demonstrate how Ireland can meet the non-ETS target at least cost. The paper considers the impacts (in terms of different technology choices and higher marginal abatement costs) arising from higher targets for the energy system to compensate for growth in agriculture activity and low mitigation potential in that sector. The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus, with a need for increased effort in renewable transport and renewable heat in particular. The results also point to significant electrification of residential heating. The results also point to a high marginal abatement cost (€213/tCO 2 ), which challenges the analysis carried out at EU level to establish Ireland's non-ETS target. - Highlights: • Techno-economic energy model to deliver EU GHG mitigation target by 2020 in Ireland. • Agriculture represents nearly half of Non-ETS emissions in Ireland. • The target set for Non-ETS GHG for Ireland is far from a cost optimal target. • The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus. • Key pathways: electrification of heating in buildings and biofuels in transport

Ultraviolet complete dark energy model

Science.gov (United States)

Narain, Gaurav; Li, Tianjun

2018-04-01

We consider a local phenomenological model to explain a nonlocal gravity scenario which has been proposed to address dark energy issues. This nonlocal gravity action has been seen to fit the data as well as Λ -CDM and therefore demands a more fundamental local treatment. The induced gravity model coupled with higher-derivative gravity is exploited for this proposal, as this perturbatively renormalizable model has a well-defined ultraviolet (UV) description where ghosts are evaded. We consider a generalized version of this model where we consider two coupled scalar fields and their nonminimal coupling with gravity. In this simple model, one of the scalar field acquires a vacuum expectation value (VEV), thereby inducing a mass for one of the scalar fields and generating Newton's constant. The induced mass however is seen to be always above the running energy scale thereby leading to its decoupling. The residual theory after decoupling becomes a platform for driving the accelerated expansion under certain conditions. Integrating out the residual scalar generates a nonlocal gravity action. The leading term of which is the nonlocal gravity action used to fit the data of dark energy.

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

2018-03-01

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant

International Energy Agency Building Energy Simulation Test and Diagnostic Method for Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Equipment Models (HVAC BESTEST); Volume 1: Cases E100-E200

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neymark, J.; Judkoff, R.

2002-01-01

This report describes the Building Energy Simulation Test for Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Equipment Models (HVAC BESTEST) project conducted by the Tool Evaluation and Improvement International Energy Agency (IEA) Experts Group. The group was composed of experts from the Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) Programme, Task 22, Subtask A. The current test cases, E100-E200, represent the beginning of work on mechanical equipment test cases; additional cases that would expand the current test suite have been proposed for future development.

One-dimensional energy flow model for poroelastic material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jung Soo; Kang, Yeon June

2009-01-01

This paper presents a one-dimensional energy flow model to investigate the energy behavior for poroelastic media coupled with acoustical media. The proposed energy flow model is expressed by an independent energy governing equation that is classified into each wave component propagating in poroelastic media. The energy governing equation is derived using the General Energetic Method (GEM). To facilitate a comparison with the classical solution based on the conventional displacement-base formulation, approximate solutions of energy density and intensity are obtained. Furthermore, the limitations and usability of the proposed energy flow model for poroelastic media are described.

Structure formation in inhomogeneous Early Dark Energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batista, R.C.; Pace, F.

2013-01-01

We study the impact of Early Dark Energy fluctuations in the linear and non-linear regimes of structure formation. In these models the energy density of dark energy is non-negligible at high redshifts and the fluctuations in the dark energy component can have the same order of magnitude of dark matter fluctuations. Since two basic approximations usually taken in the standard scenario of quintessence models, that both dark energy density during the matter dominated period and dark energy fluctuations on small scales are negligible, are not valid in such models, we first study approximate analytical solutions for dark matter and dark energy perturbations in the linear regime. This study is helpful to find consistent initial conditions for the system of equations and to analytically understand the effects of Early Dark Energy and its fluctuations, which are also verified numerically. In the linear regime we compute the matter growth and variation of the gravitational potential associated with the Integrated Sachs-Wolf effect, showing that these observables present important modifications due to Early Dark Energy fluctuations, though making them more similar to the ΛCDM model. We also make use of the Spherical Collapse model to study the influence of Early Dark Energy fluctuations in the nonlinear regime of structure formation, especially on δ c parameter, and their contribution to the halo mass, which we show can be of the order of 10%. We finally compute how the number density of halos is modified in comparison to the ΛCDM model and address the problem of how to correct the mass function in order to take into account the contribution of clustered dark energy. We conclude that the inhomogeneous Early Dark Energy models are more similar to the ΛCDM model than its homogeneous counterparts

Aquifer thermal-energy-storage modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Schaetzle, W. J.; Lecroy, J. E.

1982-09-01

A model aquifer was constructed to simulate the operation of a full size aquifer. Instrumentation to evaluate the water flow and thermal energy storage was installed in the system. Numerous runs injecting warm water into a preconditioned uniform aquifer were made. Energy recoveries were evaluated and agree with comparisons of other limited available data. The model aquifer is simulated in a swimming pool, 18 ft by 4 ft, which was filled with sand. Temperature probes were installed in the system. A 2 ft thick aquifer is confined by two layers of polyethylene. Both the aquifer and overburden are sand. Four well configurations are available. The system description and original tests, including energy recovery, are described.

International Energy Agency Ocean Energy Systems Task 10 Wave Energy Converter Modeling Verification and Validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Fabian F.; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Nielsen, Kim

2017-01-01

This is the first joint reference paper for the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling verification and validation group. The group is established under the OES Energy Technology Network program under the International Energy Agency. OES was founded in 2001 and Task 10 ...

Strategic planning for minimizing CO2 emissions using LP model based on forecasted energy demand by PSO Algorithm and ANN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yousefi, M.; Omid, M.; Rafiee, Sh. [Department of Agricultural Machinery Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Ghaderi, S.F. [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-07-01

Iran's primary energy consumption (PEC) was modeled as a linear function of five socioeconomic and meteorological explanatory variables using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques. Results revealed that ANN outperforms PSO model to predict test data. However, PSO technique is simple and provided us with a closed form expression to forecast PEC. Energy demand was forecasted by PSO and ANN using represented scenario. Finally, adapting about 10% renewable energy revealed that based on the developed linear programming (LP) model under minimum CO2 emissions, Iran will emit about 2520 million metric tons CO2 in 2025. The LP model indicated that maximum possible development of hydropower, geothermal and wind energy resources will satisfy the aim of minimization of CO2 emissions. Therefore, the main strategic policy in order to reduce CO2 emissions would be exploitation of these resources.

USING A PHENOMENOLOGICAL MODEL TO TEST THE COINCIDENCE PROBLEM OF DARK ENERGY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yun; Zhu Zonghong; Alcaniz, J. S.; Gong Yungui

2010-01-01

By assuming a phenomenological form for the ratio of the dark energy and matter densities ρ X ∝ ρ m a ξ , we discuss the cosmic coincidence problem in light of current observational data. Here, ξ is a key parameter to denote the severity of the coincidence problem. In this scenario, ξ = 3 and ξ = 0 correspond to ΛCDM and the self-similar solution without the coincidence problem, respectively. Hence, any solution with a scaling parameter 0 X = 0, where ω X is the equation of state of the dark energy component, whereas the inequality ξ + 3ω X ≠ 0 represents non-standard cosmology. We place observational constraints on the parameters (Ω X,0 , ω X , ξ) of this model, where Ω X,0 is the present value of density parameter of dark energy Ω X , by using the Constitution Set (397 supernovae of type Ia data, hereafter SNeIa), the cosmic microwave background shift parameter from the five-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic peak. Combining the three samples, we get Ω X,0 = 0.72 ± 0.02, ω X = -0.98 ± 0.07, and ξ = 3.06 ± 0.35 at 68.3% confidence level. The result shows that the ΛCDM model still remains a good fit to the recent observational data, and the coincidence problem indeed exists and is quite severe, in the framework of this simple phenomenological model. We further constrain the model with the transition redshift (deceleration/acceleration). It shows that if the transition from deceleration to acceleration happens at the redshift z > 0.73, within the framework of this model, we can conclude that the interaction between dark energy and dark matter is necessary.

Comparison between the SIMPLE and ENERGY mixing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, K.J.; Todreas, N.E.

1980-07-01

The SIMPLE and ENERGY mixing models were compared in order to investigate the limitations of SIMPLE's analytically formulated mixing parameter, relative to the experimentally calibrated ENERGY mixing parameters. For interior subchannels, it was shown that when the SIMPLE and ENERGY parameters are reduced to a common form, there is good agreement between the two models for a typical fuel geometry. However, large discrepancies exist for typical blanket (lower P/D) geometries. Furthermore, the discrepancies between the mixing parameters result in significant differences in terms of the temperature profiles generated by the ENERGY code utilizing these mixing parameters as input. For edge subchannels, the assumptions made in the development of the SIMPLE model were extended to the rectangular edge subchannel geometry used in ENERGY. The resulting effective eddy diffusivities (used by the ENERGY code) associated with the SIMPLE model are again closest to those of the ENERGY model for the fuel assembly geometry. Finally, the SIMPLE model's neglect of a net swirl effect in the edge region is most limiting for assemblies exhibiting relatively large radial power skews

Energy Auditor and Quality Control Inspector Competency Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Head, Heather R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kurnik, Charles W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schroeder, Derek [U.S. Department of Energy; Cutchin, Kelly [Simonson Management Services

2018-05-02

The Energy Auditor (EA) and Quality Control Inspector (QCI) Competency model was developed to identify the soft skills, foundational competencies and define the levels of Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities (KSAs) required to successfully perform the tasks defined in the EA and QCI Job Task Analysis (JTAs), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used the U.S. Department of Labor's (DOL) Competency Model Clearinghouse resources to develop a QCI and EA Competency Model. To keep the QCI and EA competency model consistent with other construction and energy management competency models, DOE and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory used the existing 'Residential Construction Competency Model' and the 'Advanced Commercial Building Competency Model' where appropriate.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

Science.gov (United States)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Owen, Jennifer S. R.

2014-05-01

Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models started from predefined initial conditions and run in a numerical weather prediction mode on the time scale of several days. Such a cost-effective case-study approach, which draws from and expands on the concepts from the Transpose-AMIP initiative, has recently been undertaken in the SEAMSEW project at the University of Leeds funded by the AXA Research Fund. Key results from this work focusing on 20 historical storms and using different lead times and horizontal and vertical resolutions include: (a) Tracks are represented reasonably well by most hindcasts. (b) Sensitivity to vertical resolution is low. (c) There is a systematic underprediction of cyclone depth for a coarse resolution of T63, but surprisingly no systematic bias is found for higher-resolution runs using T127, showing that climate models are in fact able to represent the

Modelling energy utilisation in broiler breeder hens.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabello, C B V; Sakomura, N K; Longo, F A; Couto, H P; Pacheco, C R; Fernandes, J B K

2006-10-01

1. The objective of this study was to determine a metabolisable energy (ME) requirement model for broiler breeder hens. The influence of temperature on ME requirements for maintenance was determined in experiments conducted in three environmental rooms with temperatures kept constant at 13, 21 and 30 degrees C using a comparative slaughter technique. The energy requirements for weight gain were determined based upon body energy content and efficiency of energy utilisation for weight gain. The energy requirements for egg production were determined on the basis of egg energy content and efficiency of energy deposition in the eggs. 2. The following model was developed using these results: ME = kgW0.75(806.53-26.45T + 0.50T2) + 31.90G + 10.04EM, where kgW0.75 is body weight (kg) raised to the power 0.75, T is temperature ( degrees C), G is weight gain (g) and EM is egg mass (g). 3. A feeding trial was conducted using 400 Hubbard Hi-Yield broiler breeder hens and 40 Peterson males from 31 to 46 weeks of age in order to compare use of the model with a recommended feeding programme for this strain of bird. The application of the model in breeder hens provided good productive and reproductive performance and better results in feed and energy conversion than in hens fed according to strain recommendation. In conclusion, the model evaluated predicted an ME intake which matched breeder hens' requirements.

Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Wenliang; Zhou, Yuyu; Cetin, Kristen; Eom, Jiyong; Wang, Yu; Chen, Gang; Zhang, Xuesong

2017-12-01

With rapid urbanization and economic development, the world has been experiencing an unprecedented increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions is a common interest shared by major developed and developing countries, actions to enable these global reductions are generally implemented at the city scale. This is because baseline information from individual cities plays an important role in identifying economical options for improving building energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. Numerous approaches have been proposed for modeling urban building energy use in the past decades. This paper aims to provide an up-to-date review of the broad categories of energy models for urban buildings and describes the basic workflow of physics-based, bottom-up models and their applications in simulating urban-scale building energy use. Because there are significant differences across models with varied potential for application, strengths and weaknesses of the reviewed models are also presented. This is followed by a discussion of challenging issues associated with model preparation and calibration.

Integrated Agent-Based and Production Cost Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Studies: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallo, Giulia

2015-10-07

The agent-based framework for renewable energy studies (ARES) is an integrated approach that adds an agent-based model of industry actors to PLEXOS and combines the strengths of the two to overcome their individual shortcomings. It can examine existing and novel wholesale electricity markets under high penetrations of renewables. ARES is demonstrated by studying how increasing levels of wind will impact the operations and the exercise of market power of generation companies that exploit an economic withholding strategy. The analysis is carried out on a test system that represents the Electric Reliability Council of Texas energy-only market in the year 2020. The results more realistically reproduce the operations of an energy market under different and increasing penetrations of wind, and ARES can be extended to address pressing issues in current and future wholesale electricity markets.

Programming models for energy-aware systems

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Haitao

Energy efficiency is an important goal of modern computing, with direct impact on system operational cost, reliability, usability and environmental sustainability. This dissertation describes the design and implementation of two innovative programming languages for constructing energy-aware systems. First, it introduces ET, a strongly typed programming language to promote and facilitate energy-aware programming, with a novel type system design called Energy Types. Energy Types is built upon a key insight into today's energy-efficient systems and applications: despite the popular perception that energy and power can only be described in joules and watts, real-world energy management is often based on discrete phases and modes, which in turn can be reasoned about by type systems very effectively. A phase characterizes a distinct pattern of program workload, and a mode represents an energy state the program is expected to execute in. Energy Types is designed to reason about energy phases and energy modes, bringing programmers into the optimization of energy management. Second, the dissertation develops Eco, an energy-aware programming language centering around sustainability. A sustainable program built from Eco is able to adaptively adjusts its own behaviors to stay on a given energy budget, avoiding both deficit that would lead to battery drain or CPU overheating, and surplus that could have been used to improve the quality of the program output. Sustainability is viewed as a form of supply and demand matching, and a sustainable program consistently maintains the equilibrium between supply and demand. ET is implemented as a prototyped compiler for smartphone programming on Android, and Eco is implemented as a minimal extension to Java. Programming practices and benchmarking experiments in these two new languages showed that ET can lead to significant energy savings for Android Apps and Eco can efficiently promote battery awareness and temperature awareness in real

Model projections for household energy use in India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.J.M.; Isaac, M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Balachandra, P.

2011-01-01

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is

Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

In 1981, Glenn Research Center scientist Dr. Larry Viterna developed a model that predicted certain elements of wind turbine performance with far greater accuracy than previous methods. The model was met with derision from others in the wind energy industry, but years later, Viterna discovered it had become the most widely used method of its kind, enabling significant wind energy technologies-like the fixed pitch turbines produced by manufacturers like Aerostar Inc. of Westport, Massachusetts-that are providing sustainable, climate friendly energy sources today.

A system-level cost-of-energy wind farm layout optimization with landowner modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Le; MacDonald, Erin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We model the role of landowners in determining the success of wind projects. • A cost-of-energy (COE) model with realistic landowner remittances is developed. • These models are included in a system-level wind farm layout optimization. • Basic verification indicates the optimal COE is in-line with real-world data. • Land plots crucial to a project’s success can be identified with the approach. - Abstract: This work applies an enhanced levelized wind farm cost model, including landowner remittance fees, to determine optimal turbine placements under three landowner participation scenarios and two land-plot shapes. Instead of assuming a continuous piece of land is available for the wind farm construction, as in most layout optimizations, the problem formulation represents landowner participation scenarios as a binary string variable, along with the number of turbines. The cost parameters and model are a combination of models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Windustry. The system-level cost-of-energy (COE) optimization model is also tested under two land-plot shapes: equally-sized square land plots and unequal rectangle land plots. The optimal COEs results are compared to actual COE data and found to be realistic. The results show that landowner remittances account for approximately 10% of farm operating costs across all cases. Irregular land-plot shapes are easily handled by the model. We find that larger land plots do not necessarily receive higher remittance fees. The model can help site developers identify the most crucial land plots for project success and the optimal positions of turbines, with realistic estimates of costs and profitability

Investigation and description of European buildings that may be representative for “nearly-zero” energy single family houses in 2020

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skarning, Gunnlaug Cecilie Jensen; Svendsen, Svend; Hviid, Christian Anker

2013-01-01

As part of European energy politics and strategies for reduction of fossil fuels all new buildings should have a “nearly zero” energy consumption in 2020. This creates a strong need for research in cost-effective technologies and solutions that will contribute to the fulfilment of the ambitious...... of a set of reference parameters that can be expected to be representative for the behaviour of the “nearly zero” energy building of 2020 in different European climatic zones. This paper provides an overview of how single family houses with a very low energy demand for space heating and cooling can...... towards different orientations, where the windows in all rooms are dimensioned based on the diffuse daylight access at the specific location, it is shown that an equal window distribution will allow fulfilment of an ambitious energy target, while simultaneously enabling a balanced daylight access across...

Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bossink, Bart

2017-01-01

This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning