Segmentation of Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Infection Using Modified Automatic Seeded Region Growing

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Nordin Abdul

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract In the image segmentation process of positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET/CT imaging, previous works used information in CT only for segmenting the image without utilizing the information that can be provided by PET. This paper proposes to utilize the hot spot values in PET to guide the segmentation in CT, in automatic image segmentation using seeded region growing (SRG technique. This automatic segmentation routine can be used as part of automatic diagnostic tools. In addition to the original initial seed selection using hot spot values in PET, this paper also introduces a new SRG growing criterion, the sliding windows. Fourteen images of patients having extrapulmonary tuberculosis have been examined using the above-mentioned method. To evaluate the performance of the modified SRG, three fidelity criteria are measured: percentage of under-segmentation area, percentage of over-segmentation area, and average time consumption. In terms of the under-segmentation percentage, SRG with average of the region growing criterion shows the least error percentage (51.85%. Meanwhile, SRG with local averaging and variance yielded the best results (2.67% for the over-segmentation percentage. In terms of the time complexity, the modified SRG with local averaging and variance growing criterion shows the best performance with 5.273 s average execution time. The results indicate that the proposed methods yield fairly good performance in terms of the over- and under-segmentation area. The results also demonstrated that the hot spot values in PET can be used to guide the automatic segmentation in CT image.

The Sabethines of Northern Andean Coffee-Growing Regions of Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Suaza-Vasco, Juan; López-Rubio, Andrés; Galeano, Juan; Uribe, Sandra; Vélez, Iván; Porter, Charles

2015-06-01

Sampling for sabethine mosquitoes occurred intermittently from September 2007 to April 2013 in 17 municipalities, located in 5 departments (divisions) in the northern Andean coffee-growing regions of Colombia. Of the 9 genera within the Sabethini tribe known to occur in the Neotropical region, 6 were encountered including 15 species: Jonhbelkinia ulopus, Limatus durhamii, Sabethes ignotus, Sa. luxodens, Sa. undosus, Shannoniana fluviatilis, Trichoprosopon compressum, Tr. digitatum, Tr. evansae, Tr. pallidiventer s.l., Tr. pallidiventer s.s., Wyeomyia arthrostigma, Wy. oblita, Wy. ulocoma, and Wy. undulata. The species Sa. luxodens and Wy. undulata constitute new records for Colombia. These records broaden the knowledge of this important group that includes some important species related to the arbovirus transmission. Records are from the northern Colombian Andes, a region noted for coffee cultivation and ecotourism.

Automated Segmentation of Coronary Arteries Based on Statistical Region Growing and Heuristic Decision Method

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Yun Tian

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The segmentation of coronary arteries is a vital process that helps cardiovascular radiologists detect and quantify stenosis. In this paper, we propose a fully automated coronary artery segmentation from cardiac data volume. The method is built on a statistics region growing together with a heuristic decision. First, the heart region is extracted using a multi-atlas-based approach. Second, the vessel structures are enhanced via a 3D multiscale line filter. Next, seed points are detected automatically through a threshold preprocessing and a subsequent morphological operation. Based on the set of detected seed points, a statistics-based region growing is applied. Finally, results are obtained by setting conservative parameters. A heuristic decision method is then used to obtain the desired result automatically because parameters in region growing vary in different patients, and the segmentation requires full automation. The experiments are carried out on a dataset that includes eight-patient multivendor cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA volume data. The DICE similarity index, mean distance, and Hausdorff distance metrics are employed to compare the proposed algorithm with two state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is capable of performing complete, robust, and accurate extraction of coronary arteries.

Global left ventricular function in cardiac CT. Evaluation of an automated 3D region-growing segmentation algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muehlenbruch, Georg; Das, Marco; Hohl, Christian; Wildberger, Joachim E.; Guenther, Rolf W.; Mahnken, Andreas H.; Rinck, Daniel; Flohr, Thomas G.; Koos, Ralf; Knackstedt, Christian

2006-01-01

The purpose was to evaluate a new semi-automated 3D region-growing segmentation algorithm for functional analysis of the left ventricle in multislice CT (MSCT) of the heart. Twenty patients underwent contrast-enhanced MSCT of the heart (collimation 16 x 0.75 mm; 120 kV; 550 mAseff). Multiphase image reconstructions with 1-mm axial slices and 8-mm short-axis slices were performed. Left ventricular volume measurements (end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, ejection fraction and stroke volume) from manually drawn endocardial contours in the short axis slices were compared to semi-automated region-growing segmentation of the left ventricle from the 1-mm axial slices. The post-processing-time for both methods was recorded. Applying the new region-growing algorithm in 13/20 patients (65%), proper segmentation of the left ventricle was feasible. In these patients, the signal-to-noise ratio was higher than in the remaining patients (3.2±1.0 vs. 2.6±0.6). Volume measurements of both segmentation algorithms showed an excellent correlation (all P≤0.0001); the limits of agreement for the ejection fraction were 2.3±8.3 ml. In the patients with proper segmentation the mean post-processing time using the region-growing algorithm was diminished by 44.2%. On the basis of a good contrast-enhanced data set, a left ventricular volume analysis using the new semi-automated region-growing segmentation algorithm is technically feasible, accurate and more time-effective. (orig.)

A two-stage rule-constrained seedless region growing approach for mandibular body segmentation in MRI.

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Ji, Dong Xu; Foong, Kelvin Weng Chiong; Ong, Sim Heng

2013-09-01

Extraction of the mandible from 3D volumetric images is frequently required for surgical planning and evaluation. Image segmentation from MRI is more complex than CT due to lower bony signal-to-noise. An automated method to extract the human mandible body shape from magnetic resonance (MR) images of the head was developed and tested. Anonymous MR images data sets of the head from 12 subjects were subjected to a two-stage rule-constrained region growing approach to derive the shape of the body of the human mandible. An initial thresholding technique was applied followed by a 3D seedless region growing algorithm to detect a large portion of the trabecular bone (TB) regions of the mandible. This stage is followed with a rule-constrained 2D segmentation of each MR axial slice to merge the remaining portions of the TB regions with lower intensity levels. The two-stage approach was replicated to detect the cortical bone (CB) regions of the mandibular body. The TB and CB regions detected from the preceding steps were merged and subjected to a series of morphological processes for completion of the mandibular body region definition. Comparisons of the accuracy of segmentation between the two-stage approach, conventional region growing method, 3D level set method, and manual segmentation were made with Jaccard index, Dice index, and mean surface distance (MSD). The mean accuracy of the proposed method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of CRG is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of the 3D level set method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The proposed method shows improvement in accuracy over CRG and 3D level set. Accurate segmentation of the body of the human mandible from MR images is achieved with the

Video Segmentation Using Fast Marching and Region Growing Algorithms

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Eftychis Sifakis

2002-04-01

Full Text Available The algorithm presented in this paper is comprised of three main stages: (1 classification of the image sequence and, in the case of a moving camera, parametric motion estimation, (2 change detection having as reference a fixed frame, an appropriately selected frame or a displaced frame, and (3 object localization using local colour features. The image sequence classification is based on statistical tests on the frame difference. The change detection module uses a two-label fast marching algorithm. Finally, the object localization uses a region growing algorithm based on the colour similarity. Video object segmentation results are shown using the COST 211 data set.

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-11-15

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nucleus and cytoplasm segmentation in microscopic images using K-means clustering and region growing.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrafzadeh, Omid; Dehnavi, Alireza Mehri

2015-01-01

Segmentation of leukocytes acts as the foundation for all automated image-based hematological disease recognition systems. Most of the time, hematologists are interested in evaluation of white blood cells only. Digital image processing techniques can help them in their analysis and diagnosis. The main objective of this paper is to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment them into their two dominant elements, nucleus and cytoplasm. The segmentation is conducted using two stages of applying K-means clustering. First, the nuclei are segmented using K-means clustering. Then, a proposed method based on region growing is applied to separate the connected nuclei. Next, the nuclei are subtracted from the original image. Finally, the cytoplasm is segmented using the second stage of K-means clustering. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to extract the nucleus and cytoplasm regions accurately and works well even though there is no significant contrast between the components in the image. In this paper, a method based on K-means clustering and region growing is proposed in order to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment its components, the nucleus and the cytoplasm. As region growing step of the algorithm relies on the information of edges, it will not able to separate the connected nuclei more accurately in poor edges and it requires at least a weak edge to exist between the nuclei. The nucleus and cytoplasm segments of a leukocyte can be used for feature extraction and classification which leads to automated leukemia detection.

Landscape planning for agridevelopment at regional scale: an example from cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra, India

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Bhaskara Phaneendra Bhaskar

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The basaltic landscape planning on the hot semiarid ecosystem in cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra tends to concentrate on 52 per cent of total cultivated area with 43 per cent of rural families living below poverty line posing major problem for environmental protection and resource management. Concepts of sustainable development at regional-level planning suggested that there is a growing concern for the landscape community to develop a strategic regional agricultural planning perspective in order to assist landscape planning goals. These challenges were explored with particular reference to the cotton growing Yavatmal district in Maharashtra through baseline land resource / agronomic surveys and assessing the production potential of regional rural landscapes for crop planning. Landscape analysis, premised on the geopedological and elevation constructs, culminated in a spatial coverage of hills and ridges (12.6 per cent of total area in northern and central parts whereas plateaus (29.3 per cent in association with isolated hills, mesas and butte and escarpments (17.7 per cent, pediplains (28.8 per cent and plains (8.1 per cent in south western parts of the district. Regional level analysis revealed spatially variable soil typologies dominated by vertisols and vertic intergrades. An exploration and brief account of integration landscape planning was discussed with some reflections on the experience and highlighting some of the problems and potentials of this approach within the regional context.

Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

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P. PELTONEN-SAINIO

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change offers new opportunities for Finnish field crop production, which is currently limited by the short growing season. A warmer climate will extend the thermal growing season and the physiologically effective part of it. Winters will also become milder, enabling introduction of winter-sown crops to a greater extent than is possible today. With this study we aim to characterise the likely regional differences in capacity to grow different seed producing crops. Prolongation of the Finnish growing season was estimated using a 0.5º latitude × 0.5º longitude gridded dataset from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dataset comprised an average estimate from 19 global climate models of the response of Finnish climate to low (B1 and high (A2 scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for 30-year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Growing season temperature sums that suit crop growth and are agronomically feasible in Finland are anticipated to increase by some 140 °Cd by 2025, 300 °Cd by 2055 and 470 °Cd by 2085 in scenario A2, when averaged over regions, and earlier sowing is expected to take place, but not later harvests. Accordingly, the extent of cultivable areas for the commonly grown major and minor crops will increase considerably. Due to the higher base temperature requirement for maize (Zea mays L. growth than for temperate crops, we estimate that silage maize could become a Finnish field crop for the most favourable growing regions only at the end of this century. Winters are getting milder, but it will take almost the whole century until winters such as those that are typical for southern Sweden and Denmark are experienced on a wide scale in Finland. It is possible that introduction of winter-sown crops (cereals and rapeseed will represent major risks due to fluctuating winter conditions, and this could delay their adaptation for many decades. Such risks need to be

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-01-01

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

Integrating multiscale polar active contours and region growing for microcalcifications segmentation in mammography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arikidis, N S; Karahaliou, A; Skiadopoulos, S; Panagiotakis, G; Costaridou, L; Likaki, E

2009-01-01

Morphology of individual microcalcifications is an important clinical factor in microcalcification clusters diagnosis. Accurate segmentation remains a difficult task due to microcalcifications small size, low contrast, fuzzy nature and low distinguishability from surrounding tissue. A novel application of active rays (polar transformed active contours) on B-spline wavelet representation is employed, to provide initial estimates of microcalcification boundary. Then, a region growing method is used with pixel aggregation constrained by the microcalcification boundary estimates, to obtain the final microcalcification boundary. The method was tested on dataset of 49 microcalcification clusters (30 benign, 19 malignant), originating from the DDSM database. An observer study was conducted to evaluate segmentation accuracy of the proposed method, on a 5-point rating scale (from 5:excellent to 1:very poor). The average accuracy rating was 3.98±0.81 when multiscale active rays were combined to region growing and 2.93±0.92 when combined to linear polynomial fitting, while the difference in rating of segmentation accuracy was statistically significant (p < 0.05).

A Study on the Application of Fuzzy Information Seeded Region Growing in Brain MRI Tissue Segmentation

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Chuin-Mu Wang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available After long-term clinical trials, MRI has been proven to be used in humans harmlessly, and it is popularly used in medical diagnosis. Although MR is highly sensitive, it provides abundant organization information. Therefore, how to transform the multi-spectral images which is easier to be used for doctor’s clinical diagnosis. In this thesis, the fuzzy bidirectional edge detection method is used to solve conventional SRG problem of growing order in the initial seed stages. In order to overcome the problems of the different regions, although it is the same Euclidean distance for region growing and merging process stages, we present the peak detection method to improve them. The standard deviation target generation process (SDTGP is applied to guarantee the regions merging process does not cause over- or undersegmentation. Experimental results reveal that FISRG segments a multispectral MR image much more effectively than FAST and K-means.

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Segmentasi Pembuluh Darah Retina Pada Citra Fundus Menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding Dan Region Growing

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Deni Sutaji

2016-07-01

Full Text Available AbstrakSegmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina menjadi hal yang substansial dalam dunia kedokteran, karena dapat digunakan untuk mendeteksi penyakit, seperti: diabetic retinopathy, hypertension, dan cardiovascular. Dokter membutuhkan waktu sekitar dua jam untuk mendeteksi pembuluh darah retina, sehingga diperlukan metode yang dapat membantu screening agar lebih cepat.Penelitian sebelumnya mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah yang sensitif terhadap variasi ukuran lebar pembuluh darah namun masih terjadi over-segmentasi pada area patologi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan metode segmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina yang dapat mengurangi over-segmentasi pada area patologi menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding dan Region Growing.Metode yang diusulkan terdiri dari 3 tahap, yaitu segmentasi pembuluh darah utama, deteksi area patologi dan segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah utama menggunakan high-pass filtering dan tophat reconstruction pada kanal hijau citra yang sudah diperbaiki kontrasnya sehingga lebih jelas perbedaan antara pembuluh darah dan background. Tahap deteksi area patologi menggunakan metode Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis menggunakan Region Growing berdasarkan informasi label pembuluh darah utama dan label area patologi. Hasil segmentasi pembuluh darah utama dan pembuluh darah tipis kemudian digabungkan sehingga menjadi keluaran sistem berupa citra biner pembuluh darah. Berdasarkan hasil uji coba, metode ini mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah retina dengan baik pada citra fundus DRIVE, yaitu dengan akurasi rata-rata 95.25% dan nilai Area Under Curve (AUC pada kurva Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC sebesar 74.28%.                           Kata Kunci: citra fundus retina, gradient based adaptive thresholding, patologi, pembuluh darah retina, region growing

Application of remote sensing for analyzing climatic variation in the boreal and subarctic regions of Canada and for validating the Canadian Regional Climate Model; Application de la teledetection a l'analyse de la variabilite climatique des regions boreales et subarctiques du Canada et a la validation du modele regional canadien du climat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fillol, E.J.

2003-07-01

This study examined climate variations over the past few decades as well as the tools used to model future climate. The study included an interpretation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) time series data at the continental spatial scale. Data collected over a period of two decades was used to study and monitor Canada's boreal ecosystem activity and to observe recent climatic change. The study involved the use of classical parameters associated with remote sensing in the visible and thermal infrared spectra for vegetation activity and land-surface temperatures. Problems associated with instrumental drift and inter-satellite adjustment were minimized by choosing indicators for the length of the growing season, annual growing degree-days and ecotone displacement. Climate variations over the past twenty years were compared with daily meteorological data of temperature, precipitation and snow cover. Rapid cycle climatic phenomena such as the El Nino and La Nina appear to have influenced the central region of Canada. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation also influenced the climate regime of Canada and annual growing degree-days. Indicators for vegetation activity and land-surface temperature suggest that a North-South disparity exists over Canada. A warming trend with an increased growing season was observed for the region north of the 55 parallel, while southern regions appear to be cooling. This study also used remote sensing to validate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) through a comparison of ground temperature values modelled by the CRCM with composite satellite temperatures. The results indicate a small under-estimation of the CRCM ground temperature during the summer due to an overestimation of the precipitation rate. It was concluded that climate models such as the CRCM are useful in making reliable predictions of future climate trends.

Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

2017-11-01

Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

"Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

2012-12-15

Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

Influence of growing and exploatation of bovins on regional agroecosystems

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Cornel Podar

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Scientists all over the are concerned regarding the influence of growing ruminants on regional agro-ecosystems due to green house gases resulted (CO 2, CH4, N2O5. Cattle have contributed to environmental pollution in old industrial farming systems, when the cattle number in Romania, reached 8 million, manure evacuation was not solved and manure was accumulating around the farm polluting the soil, water and air. Low density of ruminants existing in the agricultural sector of the country is not significant in terms of pollution. Currently cattle have positive effects on the environment by the use of legumes, grasses and manure production contributing to the increase of agricultural production: crop production (sugar beet, potato and cereals, animal production (milk, meat, leather production and industrial production also (biogas, befouls, alcohol, oil production.

Central Asia in Asia: Charting growing trans-regional linkages

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Nicola P. Contessi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available As the so-called ‘Asian Century’ unfolds, Central Asian countries are increasingly directing their foreign relations eastward. Meanwhile, Asian states are equally turning to Central Asia in their search for energy resources and new markets. This dual dynamic is giving rise to closer and deeper ties in three key areas. As far as infrastructures are concerned, various Asian powers have adopted Silk Road policies that see Central Asia as a fundamental transit route for their long-haul connectivity projects. In the field of trade, Central Asia's exchanges with other Asian countries have been growing steadily since the 1990s, in some cases even coming to rival, in comparative terms, exchanges with the West. Lastly, in terms of multilateralism, Central Asia is increasingly enmeshed in a web of overlapping institutions with a strong Asian identity, coexisting with the region's Western institutional references. The article then problematizes this emerging pattern by sketching out some of the possible ramifications that could stem from the sustainment and consolidation of these trends for the international order and the global balance of power.

A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

Science.gov (United States)

Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

2016-09-15

Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (prisk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (prisk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright �

Regional and seasonal analyses of weights in growing Angus cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, H L; Fragomeni, B O; Bertrand, J K; Lourenco, D A L; Misztal, I

2016-10-01

This study evaluated the impact of region and season on growth in Angus seed stock. To assess geographic differences, the United States was partitioned into 9 regions based on similar climate and topography related to cow-calf production. Seasonal effects were associated with the month that animals were weighed. The American Angus Association provided growth data, and records were assigned to regions based on the owner's zip code. Most Angus cattle were in the Cornbelt, Lower Plains, Rocky Mountain, Upper Plains, and Upper South regions, with proportionally fewer Angus in Texas compared with the national cow herd. Most calves were born in the spring, especially February and March. Weaning weights (WW; = 49,886) and yearling weights (YW; = 45,168) were modeled with fixed effects of age-of-dam class (WW only), weigh month, region, month-region interaction, and linear covariate of age. Random effects included contemporary group nested within month-region combination and residual. The significant month-region interaction ( Angus seed stock producers have used calving seasons to adapt to the specific environmental conditions in their regions and to optimize growth in young animals.

Mapping growing stock volume and forest live biomass: a case study of the Polissya region of Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Bilous, Andrii; Myroniuk, Viktor; Holiaka, Dmytrii; Bilous, Svitlana; See, Linda; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2017-10-01

Forest inventory and biomass mapping are important tasks that require inputs from multiple data sources. In this paper we implement two methods for the Ukrainian region of Polissya: random forest (RF) for tree species prediction and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) for growing stock volume and biomass mapping. We examined the suitability of the five-band RapidEye satellite image to predict the distribution of six tree species. The accuracy of RF is quite high: ~99% for forest/non-forest mask and 89% for tree species prediction. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable in the RF model improved the performance of tree species classification. We evaluated different distance metrics for the k-NN method, including Euclidean or Mahalanobis distance, most similar neighbor (MSN), gradient nearest neighbor, and independent component analysis. The MSN with the four nearest neighbors (k = 4) is the most precise (according to the root-mean-square deviation) for predicting forest attributes across the study area. The k-NN method allowed us to estimate growing stock volume with an accuracy of 3 m3 ha-1 and for live biomass of about 2 t ha-1 over the study area.

Randomizing growing networks with a time-respecting null model

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Medo, Matúš

2018-05-01

Complex networks are often used to represent systems that are not static but grow with time: People make new friendships, new papers are published and refer to the existing ones, and so forth. To assess the statistical significance of measurements made on such networks, we propose a randomization methodology—a time-respecting null model—that preserves both the network's degree sequence and the time evolution of individual nodes' degree values. By preserving the temporal linking patterns of the analyzed system, the proposed model is able to factor out the effect of the system's temporal patterns on its structure. We apply the model to the citation network of Physical Review scholarly papers and the citation network of US movies. The model reveals that the two data sets are strikingly different with respect to their degree-degree correlations, and we discuss the important implications of this finding on the information provided by paradigmatic node centrality metrics such as indegree and Google's PageRank. The randomization methodology proposed here can be used to assess the significance of any structural property in growing networks, which could bring new insights into the problems where null models play a critical role, such as the detection of communities and network motifs.

Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

Science.gov (United States)

Shave, Megan E; Lindell, Catherine A

2017-01-01

Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius), in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

Abundance and distribution of microplastics within surface sediments of a key shellfish growing region of Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazmiruk, T N; Kazmiruk, V D; Bendell, L I

2018-01-01

The abundance and distribution of microplastics within 5 sediment size classes (>5000 μm, 1000-5000 μm, 250-1000 μm, 250-0.63 μm and Microplastics were found at all sampling locations indicating widespread contamination of this region with these particles. Three types of microplastics were recovered: microbeads, which occurred in the greatest number (up to 25000/kg dry sediment) and microfibers and microfragments, which were much less in number compared with microbeads and occurred in similar amounts (100-300/kg dry sediment). Microbeads were recovered primarily in the microplastics were spatially dependent with principal component analysis (PCA) indicating that 84 percent of the variation in abundance and distribution was due to the presence of high numbers of microbeads at three locations within the study region. At these sites, microbeads expressed as a percent component of the sediment by weight was similar to key geochemical components that govern trace metal behavior and availability to benthic organisms. Microbeads have been shown to accumulate metals from the aquatic environment, hence in addition to the traditional geochemical components such as silt and organic matter, microplastics also need to be considered as a sediment component that can influence trace metal geochemistry. Our findings have shown that BC's premier oyster growing region is highly contaminated with microplastics, notably microbeads. It would be prudent to assess the degree to which oysters from this region are ingesting microplastics. If so, it would have direct implications for Canada's oyster farming industry with respect to the health of the oyster and the quality of product that is being farmed and sets an example for other shellfish growing regions of the world.

A growing social network model in geographical space

Science.gov (United States)

Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco

2017-09-01

In this work we propose a new model for the generation of social networks that includes their often ignored spatial aspects. The model is a growing one and links are created either taking space into account, or disregarding space and only considering the degree of target nodes. These two effects can be mixed linearly in arbitrary proportions through a parameter. We numerically show that for a given range of the combination parameter, and for given mean degree, the generated network class shares many important statistical features with those observed in actual social networks, including the spatial dependence of connections. Moreover, we show that the model provides a good qualitative fit to some measured social networks.

Distributions of Salmonella Subtypes Differ between Two U.S. Produce-Growing Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Danyluk, Michelle D.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin

2014-01-01

Salmonella accounts for approximately 50% of produce-associated outbreaks in the United States, several of which have been traced back to contamination in the produce production environment. To quantify Salmonella diversity and aid in identification of Salmonella contamination sources, we characterized Salmonella isolates from two geographically diverse produce-growing regions in the United States. Initially, we characterized the Salmonella serotype and subtype diversity associated with 1,677 samples collected from 33 produce farms in New York State (NYS). Among these 1,677 samples, 74 were Salmonella positive, yielding 80 unique isolates (from 147 total isolates), which represented 14 serovars and 23 different pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. To explore regional Salmonella diversity associated with production environments, we collected a smaller set of samples (n = 65) from South Florida (SFL) production environments and compared the Salmonella diversity associated with these samples with the diversity found among NYS production environments. Among these 65 samples, 23 were Salmonella positive, yielding 32 unique isolates (from 81 total isolates), which represented 11 serovars and 17 different PFGE types. The most common serovars isolated in NYS were Salmonella enterica serovars Newport, Cerro, and Thompson, while common serovars isolated in SFL were Salmonella serovars Saphra and Newport and S. enterica subsp. diarizonae serovar 50:r:z. High PFGE type diversity (Simpson's diversity index, 0.90 ± 0.02) was observed among Salmonella isolates across both regions; only three PFGE types were shared between the two regions. The probability of three or fewer shared PFGE types was Salmonella isolates were considerably different between the two sampled regions. These findings suggest the potential for PFGE-based source tracking of Salmonella in production environments. PMID:24747908

Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan E Shave

Full Text Available Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius, in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 1. Model description

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.

2004-01-01

A dynamic mechanistic model was developed for growing and fattening pigs. The aim of the model was to predict growth rate and the chemical and anatomical body compositions from the digestible nutrient intake of gilts (20-105 kg live weight). The model represents the partitioning of digestible

"Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model (P-53)

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

2008-01-01

We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Santos

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

Regional planning and modelling of nitrate leaching in Denmark using DaisyGIS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veihe, Anita; Jensen, Niels H.; Boegh, Eva

Spatial deterministic simulation models such as DaisyGIS are increasingly being used for decision-making in European planning and there is a growing interest in using DaisyGIS as an administrative tool at the regional level in Denmark. This study evaluates the use of Daisy-GIS for nitrate leaching...... assessments based on nitrate leaching experiments carried out at the Marbjerg experimental site at Roskilde University....

HRM: HII Region Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

2017-07-01

HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

Modeling mechanical interactions in growing populations of rod-shaped bacteria

Science.gov (United States)

Winkle, James J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William

2017-10-01

Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular fluid flow lead to complex, changing arrangements of cells within the population. To rationally engineer and control the behavior of cell collectives we need theoretical and computational tools to understand their emergent spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we present an agent-based model that allows growing cells to detect and respond to mechanical interactions. Crucially, our model couples the dynamics of cell growth to the cell’s environment: Mechanical constraints can affect cellular growth rate and a cell may alter its behavior in response to these constraints. This coupling links the mechanical forces that influence cell growth and emergent behaviors in cell assemblies. We illustrate our approach by showing how mechanical interactions can impact the dynamics of bacterial collectives growing in microfluidic traps.

Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 2. Model evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.

2004-01-01

The objective of the present paper was to evaluate a dynamic mechanistic model for growing and fattening pigs presented in a companion paper. The model predicted the rate of protein and fat deposition (chemical composition), rate of tissue deposition (anatomical composition) and performance of pigs

The Tax harmonization in open regionalism ; The European model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mouloud MELIKAOUI

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This research examines the subject of alternative regionalism or open regionalism and reality within the multilateral trading system, based on growing liberalization of trade, and the problem of compatibility between them, as well as the limits of economic policy harmonization in the framework of Open regionalism, special tax harmonization, in the light of economic and tax disparities of the Member States, with an overview of the European tax harmonization and limits. The Study concluded the importance of tax harmonization as a tool by activation of the concept of open regionalism, through facilitating capitals flows and investments between member states and reduction of the négatives phenomena of tax. It recommended the need to emphasizing on the importance of gradually harmonization for tax policy, and expand the rule of tax treaties and exchange of tax information and experiences between countries, This is in light a holistic approach to other economic policies as a the exchange rate policy and monetary policy, just as is the case in the European model.

Inverse modeling and animation of growing single-stemmed trees at interactive rates

Science.gov (United States)

S. Rudnick; L. Linsen; E.G. McPherson

2007-01-01

For city planning purposes, animations of growing trees of several species can be used to deduce which species may best fit a particular environment. The models used for the animation must conform to real measured data. We present an approach for inverse modeling to fit global growth parameters. The model comprises local production rules, which are iteratively and...

Growing C4 perennial grass for bioenergy using a new Agro-BGC ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

di Vittorio, A. V.; Anderson, R. S.; Miller, N. L.; Running, S. W.

2009-12-01

Accurate, spatially gridded estimates of bioenergy crop yields require 1) biophysically accurate crop growth models and 2) careful parameterization of unavailable inputs to these models. To meet the first requirement we have added the capacity to simulate C4 perennial grass as a bioenergy crop to the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. This new model, hereafter referred to as Agro-BGC, includes enzyme driven C4 photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon/nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that effectively simulates fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. There are four Agro-BGC vegetation parameters that are unavailable for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and to meet the second requirement we have optimized the model across multiple calibration sites to obtain representative values for these parameters. We have verified simulated switchgrass yields against observations at three non-calibration sites in IL. Agro-BGC simulates switchgrass growth and yield at harvest very well at a single site. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme would be adequate for producing regional-scale estimates of bioenergy crop yields on high spatial resolution grids.

Modelling the Hydraulic Behaviour of Growing Media with the Explicit Finite Volume Solution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Carbone

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The increasing imperviousness of urban areas reduces the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban catchments and results in increased runoff. In the last few decades, several solutions and techniques have been proposed to prevent such impacts by restoring the hydrological cycle. A limiting factor in spreading the use of such systems is the lack of proper modelling tools for design, especially for the infiltration processes in a growing medium. In this research, a physically-based model, employing the explicit Finite Volume Method (FVM, is proposed for modelling infiltration into growing media. The model solves a modified version of the Richards equation using a formulation which takes into account the main characteristics of green infrastructure substrates. The proposed model was verified against the HYDRUS-1D software and the comparison of results confirmed the suitability of the proposed model for correctly describing the hydraulic behaviour of soil substrates.

A Survival Model for Shortleaf Pine Tress Growing in Uneven-Aged Stands

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas B. Lynch; Lawrence R. Gering; Michael M. Huebschmann; Paul A. Murphy

1999-01-01

A survival model for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) trees growing in uneven-aged stands was developed using data from permanently established plots maintained by an industrial forestry company in western Arkansas. Parameters were fitted to a logistic regression model with a Bernoulli dependent variable in which "0" represented...

A dynamic cellular vertex model of growing epithelial tissues

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Shao-Zhen; Li, Bo; Feng, Xi-Qiao

2017-04-01

Intercellular interactions play a significant role in a wide range of biological functions and processes at both the cellular and tissue scales, for example, embryogenesis, organogenesis, and cancer invasion. In this paper, a dynamic cellular vertex model is presented to study the morphomechanics of a growing epithelial monolayer. The regulating role of stresses in soft tissue growth is revealed. It is found that the cells originating from the same parent cell in the monolayer can orchestrate into clustering patterns as the tissue grows. Collective cell migration exhibits a feature of spatial correlation across multiple cells. Dynamic intercellular interactions can engender a variety of distinct tissue behaviors in a social context. Uniform cell proliferation may render high and heterogeneous residual compressive stresses, while stress-regulated proliferation can effectively release the stresses, reducing the stress heterogeneity in the tissue. The results highlight the critical role of mechanical factors in the growth and morphogenesis of epithelial tissues and help understand the development and invasion of epithelial tumors.

Multi-Year Estimates of Regional Alaskan Net CO2 Exchange: Constraining a Remote-Sensing Based Model with Aircraft Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lindaas, J.; Commane, R.; Luus, K. A.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Dinardo, S. J.; Henderson, J.; Mountain, M. E.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Miller, J. B.; Lin, J. C.; Daube, B. C.; Pittman, J. V.; Wofsy, S. C.

2014-12-01

The Alaskan region has historically been a sink of atmospheric CO2, but permafrost currently stores large amounts of carbon that are vulnerable to release to the atmosphere as northern high-latitudes continue to warm faster than the global average. We use aircraft CO2 data with a remote-sensing based model driven by MODIS satellite products and validated by CO2 flux tower data to calculate average daily CO2 fluxes for the region of Alaska during the growing seasons of 2012 and 2013. Atmospheric trace gases were measured during CARVE (Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment) aboard the NASA Sherpa C-23 aircraft. For profiles along the flight track, we couple the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, and convolve these footprints of surface influence with our remote-sensing based model, the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis Respiration Model (PolarVPRM). We are able to calculate average regional fluxes for each month by minimizing the difference between the data and model column integrals. Our results provide a snapshot of the current state of regional Alaskan growing season net ecosystem exchange (NEE). We are able to begin characterizing the interannual variation in Alaskan NEE and to inform future refinements in process-based modeling that will produce better estimates of past, present, and future pan-Arctic NEE. Understanding if/when/how the Alaskan region transitions from a sink to a source of CO2 is crucial to predicting the trajectory of future climate change.

New wine-growing regions of Brazil and their importance in the evolution of Brazilian wine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wurz Douglas André

2017-01-01

. Add to this a dry, well-drained and granitic soil, especially for growing Syrah and Viogner. The São Francisco River Valley presents flat lands, at an altitude of 400 meters. Located outside the suitable range for growing grapes, this semi-arid region presents low rainfall (less than 500 mm a year and strong insolation. Its permeable clay soils have proven to be suitable for the acclimatization of grapevines such as Moscatel, Cabernet Sauvignon and Syrah.

Growing an Emerging Research University

Science.gov (United States)

Birx, Donald L.; Anderson-Fletcher, Elizabeth; Whitney, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

The emerging research college or university is one of the most formidable resources a region has to reinvent and grow its economy. This paper is the first of two that outlines a process of building research universities that enhance regional technology development and facilitate flexible networks of collaboration and resource sharing. Although the…

Climatological variability in modeling of long-term regional transport and deposition of air pollutants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shannon, J.D.

1984-01-01

In a growing number of emission policy analyses, regulatory proceedings, and cost/benefit assessments, numerical models of long-range transport and deposition of air pollutants have been exercised to estimate source-receptor (S-R) relationships--for the particular meteorological conditions input to the model. The representativeness of the meteorological conditions, or the variability of the model estimates with climatological input from different years or corresponding seasons from different years, is seldom evaluated. Here, two full years (1980 and 1981) of meteorological data, as well as data from January and July of 1978, are used in the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model (Shannon, 1981), one of the eight Memorandum of Intent (MOI) models, to estimate deposition for the S-R matrix combination of eleven source regions and nine receptors used in the MOI reports. (S-R matrices of dimensions 40 by 9 were also examined in the MOI reports.) Improvements in the ASTRAP model and in the emission inventory since the earlier work require recalculation of the two-month 1978 simulation in order for the comparison to isolate the effect of meteorological variability. The source regions are listed, and the receptor regions are provide. For completeness, an additional source region, the western states and provinces, has been added, as well as a total for the 48 contiguous states and 10 provinces. 4 references, 9 tables

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver Angélil

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

Adaptive region-growing with maximum curvature strategy for tumor segmentation in 18F-FDG PET

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Shan; Li, Laquan; Choi, Wookjin; Kang, Min Kyu; D'Souza, Warren D.; Lu, Wei

2017-07-01

Accurate tumor segmentation in PET is crucial in many oncology applications. We developed an adaptive region-growing (ARG) algorithm with a maximum curvature strategy (ARG_MC) for tumor segmentation in PET. The ARG_MC repeatedly applied a confidence connected region-growing algorithm with increasing relaxing factor f. The optimal relaxing factor (ORF) was then determined at the transition point on the f-volume curve, where the volume just grew from the tumor into the surrounding normal tissues. The ARG_MC along with five widely used algorithms were tested on a phantom with 6 spheres at different signal to background ratios and on two clinic datasets including 20 patients with esophageal cancer and 11 patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The ARG_MC did not require any phantom calibration or any a priori knowledge of the tumor or PET scanner. The identified ORF varied with tumor types (mean ORF  =  9.61, 3.78 and 2.55 respectively for the phantom, esophageal cancer, and NHL datasets), and varied from one tumor to another. For the phantom, the ARG_MC ranked the second in segmentation accuracy with an average Dice similarity index (DSI) of 0.86, only slightly worse than Daisne’s adaptive thresholding method (DSI  =  0.87), which required phantom calibration. For both the esophageal cancer dataset and the NHL dataset, the ARG_MC had the highest accuracy with an average DSI of 0.87 and 0.84, respectively. The ARG_MC was robust to parameter settings and region of interest selection, and it did not depend on scanners, imaging protocols, or tumor types. Furthermore, the ARG_MC made no assumption about the tumor size or tumor uptake distribution, making it suitable for segmenting tumors with heterogeneous FDG uptake. In conclusion, the ARG_MC was accurate, robust and easy to use, it provides a highly potential tool for PET tumor segmentation in clinic.

Viking Disruptions or Growing Integration?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sindbæk, Søren Michael

2012-01-01

Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper...... demonstrates how formal network analysis can be combined with a contextual reading of evidence relating to a long-distance communication network in the past. A study of the combined distributions of ten vessel types in 152 settlement sites from the 10th century suggests the outline of the core structure...... of the network. The model implies that 10th century long-distance exchange in the North Sea region featured long-distance links equal to those of the Carolingian emporia trade, and represented a growth in terms of new axes of integration, above all the growing links between the Scandinavian Peninsula...

Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers, leaves, and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marwa Awad

2016-09-01

Conclusions: Essential oils from flowers, leaves and stems of R. epapposum growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia are considered as a rich source of monoterpenes which have biological activities.

Model for analyzing growth kinetics of a slowly growing Mycobacterium sp

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambrecht, R.S.; Carriere, J.F.; Collins, M.T.

1988-01-01

This report describes a simple method for quantifying viable mycobacteria and for determining generation time. We used statistical models and computer analysis of growth curves generated for the slowly growing mycobacterium Mycobacterium paratuberculosis under controlled conditions to derive a mathematical formula relating the dependent variable, growth, to the independent variables, log10 number of organisms in the inoculum (inoculum size) and incubation time. Growth was measured by a radiometric method which detects 14 CO 2 release during metabolism of a 14 C-labeled substrate. The radiometric method allowed for early detection of growth and detected as few as three viable bacteria. The coefficient of variation between culture vials inoculated with the same number of M. paratuberculosis was 0.083. Radiometric measurements were highly correlated to spectrophotometric and plate count methods for measuring growth (r = 0.962 and 0.992, respectively). The proportion of the total variability explained by the model in a goodness of fit test was 0.9994. Application of the model to broth cultures provided accurate estimates of the number of M. paratuberculosis (standard error = 0.21, log10 scale) and the growth rate (coefficient of variation, 0.03). Generation time was observed to be dependent upon the number of organisms in the inoculum. The model accurately described all phases of growth of M. paratuberculosis and can likely be applied to other slowly growing microorganisms

Experimental observation and combined investigation of high-performance fusion of iron-region isotopes in optimal growing microbiological associations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vysotskii, Vladimir I.; Kornilova, Alla A.; Tashirev, Alexandr B.; Kornilova, Julia

2006-01-01

The report represents the results of combined (Moessbauer and mass-spectroscopy) examinations of isotopes transmutation process in growing microbiological associations in the iron-region of atomic mass (50 < A < 60). It was shown that the effectiveness of isotopes transmutation during the process of growth of microbiological associations at optimal conditions is by 10-20 times more than the effectiveness of the same transmutation in one-line' (clean) microbiological cultures. (author)

Assessment of the Growing Season Regime Region of Tanzania ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The growing period for most crops continues beyond the rainy season and, to a greater or lesser extent, crops often mature on moisture reserves stored in the soil profile. When the rains start early the season is likely to be· longer, however, early rainfall (November) over unimodal areas is variable (Mhita and Nassib, 1988).

GROWING REGIONAL SCIENTIFIC MIGRATION AND MOBILITY: THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ganna KHARLAMOVA

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The article contributes to the growing strand of the literature on the scientific mobility and migration in the European Union (EU and the Eastern Partnership. The paper provides the quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits of ‘smart’ labour migration in the Eastern Partnership (EaP countries (particularly, Ukraine, explores the potential of future new rules for the mobility within the EU-EaP, and proposes some policy recommendations to enhance the benefits stemming from such flows. One of the rigorous idea – to provide an explanation whether the scientific migration and mobility, and remittances impact on economic development in the donor and recipient states, and, in particular, how important it is as a resource for the EaP enhancing. The convergence effect of scientific migration in the EU and the Eastern Partnership region is considered by means of calculative assessment.

Attenuation correction with region growing method used in the positron emission mammography imaging system

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Xiao-Yue; Li, Lin; Yin, Peng-Fei; Yun, Ming-Kai; Chai, Pei; Huang, Xian-Chao; Sun, Xiao-Li; Wei, Long

2015-10-01

The Positron Emission Mammography imaging system (PEMi) provides a novel nuclear diagnosis method dedicated for breast imaging. With a better resolution than whole body PET, PEMi can detect millimeter-sized breast tumors. To address the requirement of semi-quantitative analysis with a radiotracer concentration map of the breast, a new attenuation correction method based on a three-dimensional seeded region growing image segmentation (3DSRG-AC) method has been developed. The method gives a 3D connected region as the segmentation result instead of image slices. The continuity property of the segmentation result makes this new method free of activity variation of breast tissues. The threshold value chosen is the key process for the segmentation method. The first valley in the grey level histogram of the reconstruction image is set as the lower threshold, which works well in clinical application. Results show that attenuation correction for PEMi improves the image quality and the quantitative accuracy of radioactivity distribution determination. Attenuation correction also improves the probability of detecting small and early breast tumors. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of The Chinese Academy of Sciences (KJCX2-EW-N06)

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

2009-05-15

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

Interconnected growing self-organizing maps for auditory and semantic acquisition modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mengxue eCao

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Based on the incremental nature of knowledge acquisition, in this study we propose a growing self-organizing neural network approach for modeling the acquisition of auditory and semantic categories. We introduce an Interconnected Growing Self-Organizing Maps (I-GSOM algorithm, which takes associations between auditory information and semantic information into consideration, in this paper. Direct phonetic--semantic association is simulated in order to model the language acquisition in early phases, such as the babbling and imitation stages, in which no phonological representations exist. Based on the I-GSOM algorithm, we conducted experiments using paired acoustic and semantic training data. We use a cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training procedure to model the teaching and learning process between children and their communication partners; a reinforcing-by-link training procedure and a link-forgetting procedure are introduced to model the acquisition of associative relations between auditory and semantic information. Experimental results indicate that (1 I-GSOM has good ability to learn auditory and semantic categories presented within the training data; (2 clear auditory and semantic boundaries can be found in the network representation; (3 cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training leads to a detailed categorization as well as to a detailed clustering, while keeping the clusters that have already been learned and the network structure that has already been developed stable; and (4 reinforcing-by-link training leads to well-perceived auditory--semantic associations. Our I-GSOM model suggests that it is important to associate auditory information with semantic information during language acquisition. Despite its high level of abstraction, our I-GSOM approach can be interpreted as a biologically-inspired neurocomputational model.

Modeling phosphorus capture by plants growing in a multi-species riparian buffer

Science.gov (United States)

The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore phosphorus (P) uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126-d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and smooth brome (Bromis inermis L...

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

2006-10-15

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T.

2006-01-01

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

Science.gov (United States)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

The integration of bioclimatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticulture suitability in a region

Science.gov (United States)

Moral García, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo

2014-05-01

Different bioclimatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this work we propose using the information obtained from 10 bioclimatic indices and variables (heliothermal index, HI, cool night index, CI, dryness index, DI, growing season temperature, GST, the Winkler index, WI, September mean thermal amplitude, MTA, annual precipitation, AP, precipitation during flowering, PDF, precipitation before flowering, PBF, and summer precipitation, SP) as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main bioclimatic indices which could influence on wine suitability, and utilize the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the bioclimatic indices or variables which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural suitability potential in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southewestern Spain, is shown. Keywords: Rasch model, bioclimatic indices, GIS.

Fiber Length of Calabrian Pine as Related to Position in Cross Section and Growing Region

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Ibrahim BEKTAS

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a better understanding of the variation of growing regions and differences in distance from pith to bark on wood fiber lengths. For this aim, Calabrian pines collected from five different growth regions, namely Kahramanmaras, Burdur, Muğla, İzmir and Balıkesir, were used to determine fiber lengths. In experiment, specimens prepared from logs cross section which is taken from three different distances from pith to bark (r/6, 3r/6 and 5r/6 were evaluated. As a result of analysis, distance from pith in the same area have shown a significant effect on fiber dimensions. In the evaluation among the habitat, it was obtained that r/6 and 3r/6 have a significant effect (p<0.001, p<0.05 respectively on fiber dimensions, however; 5r/6 has a nonsignificant. The results showed that, the quite suitable habitat in terms of fiber lenghts is Balıkesir which has high sand (64.4%, moderate clay (24.2% and lime-poor (3.1% soils. These results will make a positive contribution undoubtedly for the plantations will be established in the future of this species.

Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Yoshihide

2015-01-01

Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

Application of nuclear technologies for growing of fruits which are of regional importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sultanova, Z.K.; Kharlamova, N.A.; Aidarkhanova, G.S.; Kudabayev, A.B.; Andropenkov, S.A.; Maltseva, R.M.

2002-01-01

Application of recent achievements of nuclear techniques in different applied branches develops in such main directions as radiation-biological technologies under stimulation of plants, sterilization, increasing of storage terms, disinfestation of foodstuff, forage, raw material of animal and vegetable origin, dressing, instruments, which cannot be exposed to thermal and chemical processing. It is of practical interest the irradiation of fruits and berries cuttings, which are of regional importance and been growing in nurseries. This method is already widely introduced into practice as one of efficient methods. Aim of research was the optimal irradiation dose selection for stimulation of currant cuttings gemmas before bedding out. The sorts of black and goldish currants were used in the experiment. Irradiation was conducted in 60 Co gamma-ray source. As the study materials the black currant cuttings of the 'Katyusha' sort and goldish currants of the sort 'Uzbekistanskaya' were used. For each variant 20 cuttings were prepared.Cuttings were bedded out. Drop irrigation was employed. In the sequel agricultural monitoring was carried out. The results of rooting and development of irradiated samples will be presented in report

Selección de Píxel Semilla mediante Wavelets para Crecimiento por Regiones Difuso (Selection of Seed Pixel Through Wavelets for Fuzzy Region Growing

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Damián Valdés Santiago

2015-08-01

Full Text Available RESUMEN El análisis de masas y tumores en mamografía es un problema difícil porque los signos del cáncer pueden ser mínimos o estar superpuestos en el tejido. Las técnicas de procesamiento de imágenes pueden mejorar el diagnóstico reduciendo los costos. La detección de masas es un reto debido al bajo contraste y la pobre definición de los bordes. Una solución al problema es representar una masa mediante conjuntos difusos. En este trabajo se estudia la propuesta de Guliato et al. que plantean dos métodos de segmentación difusos. El primero determina el borde de una masa por crecimiento por regiones clásico, luego de un preprocesamiento difuso de la región de interés. El segundo es un método de crecimiento por regiones difuso. Estos métodos necesitan un píxel semilla y un umbral. En este trabajo se propone una selección automática del píxel semilla mediante la selección de píxeles muy correlacionados según la transformada wavelet de la imagen. Como medida de evaluación en la segmentación, se emplea la medida de ambigüedad definida por los autores citados. Con la selección de semilla propuesta se obtienen mejores resultados en la segmentación, respecto al uso de una semilla aleatoria. ABSTRACT The analysis of masses and tumors in mammography is difficult because developing signs of cancer may be minimal or masked by superimposed tissues. Image analysis techniques have the potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of mammography, and reduce health-care costs. Detection of breast masses is a challenging problem due to low contrast and poor definition of their boundaries. An alternative to address this problem is to represent tumor or mass regions by fuzzy sets. In this paper, two methods of fuzzy segmentation proposed by Guliato et al. are studied. The first method determines the boundary of a mass by classic region growing after a fuzzy preprocessing step. The second method is a fuzzy region-growing method. This

Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

1979-09-01

A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Determinations of adaptation level of wine grape varieties in terms of climatic data in wine growing regions of turkey

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Ateş Fadime

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Wine grapes are adapted to a wide range of climate; the best production occurs in regions that meet certain specific climatic conditions. Temperatures during the growing season can affect grape quality and viability. Beneficial climatic conditions will improve the wine's quality. In this study it is aimed that to determine suitable wine grape varieties for the cultivation in some areas of Southeastern Anatolia Region, Eastern Anatolia, Central Anatolia Region, Central Black Sea Region, Aegean Region and Marmara Region in Turkey with related to climate requirements. For this reason, long-term climatic data were collected by meteorological stations including, Diyarbakır (Çermik, Çüngüş, Central-Elazığ, Nevşehir (Central and Ürgüp, Ankara (Kalecik Tokat (Central, Erbaa, Niksar, İzmir (Seferihisar, Menderes, Urla ve Denizli (Çal ve Güney, Çanakkale (Bozcaada, Bayramiç, Tekirdağ. In this study heliotermic and hdyrothermic indices were calculated and evaluated for appropriate viticultural practice in this region. It was found that Boğazkere and Öküzgözü in Southeastern Anatolia Region and Eastern Anatolia Region; Kalecik Karası, Dimrit and Narince in Central Anatolia Region and Emir in Central Black Sea Region; Bornova Misketi, Cabernet Sauvignon, Syrah, Alicante Bouschet, Carignane, Kalecik Karası, Merlot, Öküzgözü, Çal Karası, Boğazkere, Sultani Çekirdeksiz in Aegean Region; Karasakız,Karalahana, Vasilaki, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Alicante Bouschet, Semillion, Cinsaut, Yapıncak, Gamay, Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon can be adapted and grown well in terms of climatic conditions in Marmara Region respectively.

Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

Science.gov (United States)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

2016-05-01

Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

Automated lung tumor segmentation for whole body PET volume based on novel downhill region growing

Science.gov (United States)

Ballangan, Cherry; Wang, Xiuying; Eberl, Stefan; Fulham, Michael; Feng, Dagan

2010-03-01

We propose an automated lung tumor segmentation method for whole body PET images based on a novel downhill region growing (DRG) technique, which regards homogeneous tumor hotspots as 3D monotonically decreasing functions. The method has three major steps: thoracic slice extraction with K-means clustering of the slice features; hotspot segmentation with DRG; and decision tree analysis based hotspot classification. To overcome the common problem of leakage into adjacent hotspots in automated lung tumor segmentation, DRG employs the tumors' SUV monotonicity features. DRG also uses gradient magnitude of tumors' SUV to improve tumor boundary definition. We used 14 PET volumes from patients with primary NSCLC for validation. The thoracic region extraction step achieved good and consistent results for all patients despite marked differences in size and shape of the lungs and the presence of large tumors. The DRG technique was able to avoid the problem of leakage into adjacent hotspots and produced a volumetric overlap fraction of 0.61 +/- 0.13 which outperformed four other methods where the overlap fraction varied from 0.40 +/- 0.24 to 0.59 +/- 0.14. Of the 18 tumors in 14 NSCLC studies, 15 lesions were classified correctly, 2 were false negative and 15 were false positive.

The Economic Evaluation Model of the Use of the Intangible Resources Potential on the Example of Russian Regions

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Elena V. Mikhalkina

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of assessing the potential use of intangible resources. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity of innovation-based economy, the growing role of intangible resources (human, social, organizational, intellectual and other kinds of capital in promoting economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. The paper proposes a verification method of the factors that characterize the potential use of intangible resources, affecting productivity. For a description of dependencies linear regression model was selected, also there was carried out an assessment of its parameters and performed Quality check of model. In the course of a capacity assessment intangible resource model constructing at the regional level was used regression analysis (the choice of indicator system, data collection and analysis, the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the choice of models and numerical estimation of its parameters, quality control model, assessment of the certain factors impact on the basis of the model. Also the factor analysis is used (matrix of factor loadings, and the classification on the basis of the factors selected regions is carried out. The regional clusterization of the intangible resources capacity will allow to make correct management decisions in the future.

Modelling and control of growing slugs in horizontal multiphase pipe flows

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Steinar M. Elgsæter

2006-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the use of active control to restrict the length of growing slugs in horizontal pipelines is investigated. Specifically, the paper attempts to determine if such control can be attained with realistic measurements and actuators. Simulations in OLGA2000 show that a feedback controller can use measurements or estimates of slug length to control the growth of a slug in a horizontal pipeline by partially closing inlet or outlet chokes. A control-volume approach is used to develop a low-order model of inlet choke-slug growth dynamics based on mass- and impulse balances. The resulting model is a system of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations, which is suitable for observer-design. The tuned model is found to be in good agreement with experiments and OLGA2000-simulations. Linearizations of the model are found to be observable around realistic trajectories when rates and pressures at the inlet and outlet are measured. An extended Luenberger-observer is shown to give good estimates of slug length and -position in simulations even under model uncertainty.

Automatic segmentation of meningioma from non-contrasted brain MRI integrating fuzzy clustering and region growing

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Liao Chun-Chih

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI has become important in brain tumor diagnosis. Using this modality, physicians can locate specific pathologies by analyzing differences in tissue character presented in different types of MR images. This paper uses an algorithm integrating fuzzy-c-mean (FCM and region growing techniques for automated tumor image segmentation from patients with menigioma. Only non-contrasted T1 and T2 -weighted MR images are included in the analysis. The study's aims are to correctly locate tumors in the images, and to detect those situated in the midline position of the brain. Methods The study used non-contrasted T1- and T2-weighted MR images from 29 patients with menigioma. After FCM clustering, 32 groups of images from each patient group were put through the region-growing procedure for pixels aggregation. Later, using knowledge-based information, the system selected tumor-containing images from these groups and merged them into one tumor image. An alternative semi-supervised method was added at this stage for comparison with the automatic method. Finally, the tumor image was optimized by a morphology operator. Results from automatic segmentation were compared to the "ground truth" (GT on a pixel level. Overall data were then evaluated using a quantified system. Results The quantified parameters, including the "percent match" (PM and "correlation ratio" (CR, suggested a high match between GT and the present study's system, as well as a fair level of correspondence. The results were compatible with those from other related studies. The system successfully detected all of the tumors situated at the midline of brain. Six cases failed in the automatic group. One also failed in the semi-supervised alternative. The remaining five cases presented noticeable edema inside the brain. In the 23 successful cases, the PM and CR values in the two groups were highly related. Conclusions Results indicated

Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

1977-01-01

As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

Temporal stability of growth and yield among Hevea genotypes introduced to a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India

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K.K. Vinod

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Extensive cultivation of Hevea brasiliensis in India now focus on non-traditional regions for rubber cultivation. As a prelude for selection of genotypes for commercial cultivation, many introduced genotypes are being tested in genotype adaptation experiments in these regions. Present study, reports for the first time, growth and yield adaptation of 28 genotypes in a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India viz., the coastal Karnataka region. Agroclimate of this region was found favoring growth and establishment of all the genotypes evaluated. However, not all the genotypes grew and yielded well. Only four genotypes, RRII 203, KRS 25, PB 260 and PB 235 showed good growth and yield. On grouping, the genotypes fell into categories of moderate high yielders, moderate low yielders and low yielders. The most popular variety of the traditional region, RRII 105 did not perform well in this region. Biological stability in growth and yield of RRII 203 and PB 260 was identified as stable and these genotypes were the best adapted. KRS 25 and PB 235 had unstable yielding pattern. The best identified genotypes can be considered for extensive culture as single clone plantations or as major constituent of clone blends as well as parents in future breeding programmes. Other moderate stable yielders may be used for clone blending in smaller proportions and may be subjected to yield improvement.

Temporal stability of growth and yield among Hevea genotypes introduced to a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.K. Vinod

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Extensive cultivation of Hevea brasiliensis in India now focus onnon-traditional regions for rubber cultivation. As a prelude for selection of genotypes for commercial cultivation, many introduced genotypes are being tested in genotype adaptation experiments in these regions. Present study,reports for the first time, growth and yield adaptation of 28 genotypes in a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India viz., the coastal Karnataka region. Agroclimate of this region was found favoring growth andestablishment of all the genotypes evaluated. However, not all the genotypes grew and yielded well. Only four genotypes, RRII 203, KRS 25, PB 260 and PB 235 showed good growth and yield. On grouping, the genotypes fell into categories of moderate high yielders, moderate low yielders and low yielders. The most popular variety of the traditional region, RRII 105 did not perform well in this region. Biological stability in growth and yield of RRII 203 and PB 260 was identified as stable and these genotypes were the best adapted. KRS 25 and PB 235 had unstable yielding pattern. The best identifiedgenotypes can be considered for extensive culture as single clone plantations or as major constituent of clone blends as well as parents in future breeding programmes. Other moderate stable yielders may be used for clone blending in smaller proportions and may be subjected to yield improvement.

Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

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Timur Rustamovich Gareev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

Modeling Phosphorus Capture by Plants Growing in a Multispecies Riparian Buffer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Kelly

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore P uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126 d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr., switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L., and smooth brome (Bromus inermis Leyss. Model estimates of P uptake from pure stands of smooth brome and cottonwood were 18.9 and 24.5 kg ha−1, respectively. Uptake estimates for mixed stands of trees and grasses were intermediate to pure stands. A single factor sensitivity analysis of parameters used to calculate P uptake for each cover type indicated that Imax, k, ro, and Lo were consistently the most responsive to changes ranging from −50% to +100%. Model exploration of P uptake as a function of soil depth interval indicated that uptake was highest in the 0–30 cm intervals, with values ranging from 85% of total for cottonwood to 56% for switchgrass.

Radioactivity in wild-growing mushrooms of the Calabria region, south of Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Caridi, F.; Belmusto, G.

2017-01-01

Wild-growing mushrooms are a complementary foodstuff, widely consumed as a delicacy, in Italy. They are considered excellent bioindicators of environmental pollution and the accumulation of radionuclides can pose a radiological hazard. 137Cs and 40K activity concentrations were measured through HPGe gamma-spectrometry in different mushroom species (Agaricus arvensis, Leccinum quercinum, Boletus aereus, Lactarius deliciosus, Boletus edulis, Macrolepiota konradii, Cantharellus lutescens) collected from four different sampling sites in the Calabria region, south of Italy. Experimental values were found to be in the range from (0.3 ± 0.1) Bq/kg f.m. (fresh mass) to (73.1 ± 4.6) Bq/kg f.m. for 137Cs and from (46.9 ± 10.7) Bq/kg f.m. to (161.3 ± 12.9) Bq/kg f.m. for 40K, respectively. All values were much lower than the specific activity limit set by the international legislation at 600 Bq/kg f.m. for 137Cs and at 1,258 Bq/kg f.m. for 40K, respectively. Experimental activity concentrations allowed us to determine the effective dose due to the ingestion of mushrooms by adult members of the population. It was found in the range from 0.25 to 1.35 μSv/y, much lower than the recommended level for the public (1 mSv/y). Data obtained in this article provide useful information on the environmental risk and can be further used for a radiological mapping of the studied area.

Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

1983-01-01

The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi

2018-04-01

The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade -1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological

Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers,leaves,and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Marwa Awad; Abdelrhman Abdelwahab

2016-01-01

Objective:To evaluate the medicinal uses of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv.(R.epapposum) growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia,through the chemical diversity of essential oils extracted from its flowers,leaves and stems.Methods:Aerial parts of R.epapposum were collected in April 2014.Air dried flowers,leaves,and stems were separately subjected to hydrodistillation in a Clevenger-type apparatus for 4 h to extract the essential oils.Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis of the essential oils was carried out using an Agilent 6890 gas chromatograph equipped with an Agilent 5973 mass spectrometric detector.Results:A total of 51 compounds representing 76.35%–94.86% of flowers,leaves and stems oils composition were identified.The chemical profiles of the studied fractions revealed the dominance of monoterpenes,regardless of qualitative and quantitative differences observed.Limonene,linalool,4-terpineol and a-cadinol represented the major constituents of flowers oil.Leaves oil was dominated by limonene,sabinene,a-pinene and b-myrcene whereas linalool,ionole,a-cadinol,b-eudesmol,4-terpineol,and aterpineol were the major constituents of stems oil.Conclusions:Essential oils from flowers,leaves and stems of R.epapposum growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia are considered as a rich source of monoterpenes which have biological activities.

Uptake of uranium, thorium and radium isotopes by plants growing in dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region (Kazakhstan)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matveyeva, Ilona; Burkitbayev, Mukhambetkali

2016-01-01

The activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in dominant species of plants (Xantium strumarium, Phragmites communis, Artemisia nitrosa and Artemisia serotina) growing on the territories contaminated by uranium industry of Kazakhstan (close to dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region) are presented. The obtained data showed the significant variations of activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in above ground parts. The concentrations of most of the investigated radionuclides in the root system are higher than in the aboveground parts; it can be explained by root barrier. It was found that the highest root barrier has Xantium strumarium, especially for uranium isotopes. The concentration ratios of radionuclides were calculated, and as the result it was found that the highest accumulation ability in the investigated region has Artemisia serotina.

Uptake of uranium, thorium and radium isotopes by plants growing in dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region (Kazakhstan)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matveyeva, Ilona; Burkitbayev, Mukhambetkali [al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty (Kazakhstan). Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology; Jacimovic, Radojko [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Planinsek, Petra; Smodis, Borut [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

2016-04-01

The activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in dominant species of plants (Xantium strumarium, Phragmites communis, Artemisia nitrosa and Artemisia serotina) growing on the territories contaminated by uranium industry of Kazakhstan (close to dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region) are presented. The obtained data showed the significant variations of activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in above ground parts. The concentrations of most of the investigated radionuclides in the root system are higher than in the aboveground parts; it can be explained by root barrier. It was found that the highest root barrier has Xantium strumarium, especially for uranium isotopes. The concentration ratios of radionuclides were calculated, and as the result it was found that the highest accumulation ability in the investigated region has Artemisia serotina.

Comparison on phenolic compounds and antioxidant properties of cabernet sauvignon and merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Bao; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

2012-07-25

The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·), cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC), superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA) and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside) revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

Response of growing bones to irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Gonzalez, D.

1980-01-01

This thesis describes the effects of ionizing radiations on growing bones. The epiphyseal disc of growing mouse tibia was selected as a model for the experiments. An attempt has been made to obtain clinical data from irradiated bones during the childhood and to quantitate this information. Within the range of possibilities correlations have been established between the experimental and clinical data. (Auth.)

Growing Significance of EU Institutions in Promotion of Inter-regional policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ella V. Ermakova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article explores the variety of tools and vehicles applied within the EU to expand the prerogative of the regions of the EU member states. The author uses as an example the inter-regional policies in Belgium in respect of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region. The author analyzes the mechanisms of promotion of external regional relations in Belgium as a means of addressing different problems both on national and all-European level, supporting the arguments and conclusions by examples of relevant EU initiatives. The article details the activities of the EU Regional Committee (RC, the EU advisory body with the powers of political initiative, upholding the principle ofsubsidarity in the implementation of the EU member states' regional policies. The involvement of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region in the activities of EU RC is described and summarized. As a case study, the article deals with Belgium's rotating six months presidency in the EUin 2010 when the country, which was going through a severe political crisis with no federal government in place, was represented by the two regions. The special focus of the article is on the strategic EU program "Europe2020" and its implementation by the regions of Belgium. There is an account of the initiatives undertaken by the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region within the framework of this program outlining the interaction of the two regions. The author provides a comprehensive analysis of the involvement of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region with various EU institutions describing how each party achieves the promotion of its regional interests. Within this context, it is a noteworthy development that the Flemish Region is participating in the international program "Pact 2020" on energy all by its own. The article features quotations by Flemish and Walloon political figures which serve as an illustration of the prevailing attitudes in the Belgian society to the process of

An Updated Decision Support Interface: A Tool for Remote Monitoring of Crop Growing Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Husak, G. J.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C. C.; Landsfeld, M. F.

2014-12-01

Remote sensing of agroclimatological variables to monitor food production conditions is a critical component of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network portfolio of tools for assessing food security in the developing world. The Decision Support Interface (DSI) seeks to integrate a number of remotely sensed and modeled variables to create a single, simplified portal for analysis of crop growing conditions. The DSI has been reformulated to incorporate more variables and give the user more freedom in exploring the available data. This refinement seeks to transition the DSI from a "first glance" agroclimatic indicator to one better suited for the differentiation of drought events. The DSI performs analysis of variables over primary agricultural zones at the first sub-national administrative level. It uses the spatially averaged rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) to identify potential hazards to food security. Presenting this information in a web-based client gives food security analysts and decision makers a lightweight portal for information on crop growing conditions in the region. The crop zones used for the aggregation contain timing information which is critical to the DSI presentation. Rainfall and ETa are accumulated from different points in the crop phenology to identify season-long deficits in rainfall or transpiration that adversely affect the crop-growing conditions. Furthermore, the NDVI and WRSI serve as their own seasonal accumulated measures of growing conditions by capturing vegetation vigor or actual evapotranspiration deficits. The DSI is currently active for major growing regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with intention of expanding to other areas over the coming years.

Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data.

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, Tammara L; Pai, Naresh; Winchell, Michael F

2016-06-01

A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides. Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated. In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES FOR SOIL PROCESSING AND EFFICIENCY OF THEIR APPLICATION IN THE GROWING OF GRAIN CULTURES IN CHERKASY REGION

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Ulanchuk V.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Scientific and technological progress plays an important role in improving the efficiency of the production of grain products. At the same time, it also has a negative impact on the ecology of soils. World experience shows the possibility of suspending and overcoming destructive land processes by introducing innovative soil cultivation technologies in the cultivation of agricultural crops. Purpose. This article aims to substantiate expediency of introduction of innovative resource-saving technologies of soil cultivation at cultivation of grain crops in Cherkasy region. Results. In the article it is proved that the efficiency of grain production in agricultural enterprises of Cherkasy region, which are using minimal (Mini-till and zero (No-till tillage technologies, in comparison with enterprises that use traditional grain growing technology, have indicators, as the price of sale of 1 centner of grain, the profit per 1 centner of grain and the level of profitability, that are much higher. Thus, the price of 1 centner of grain produced by the “LNZ-Agro” (Mini-till in 2013-2015 was higher 573.86 UAH, at the “Shpola-Agro-Industry” (No-till at 390,94 UAH, profit per 1 centner grain is higher than 477.23 and 249.14 UAH; the level of profitability of grain – higher than 201.5 and 71.8 percentage points. A similar situation is observed in the production of the main grain crops (wheat and maize for grain. With the application of the newest soil cultivation technologies, there is a decrease in the calculation of fuel consumption and depreciation deductions per hectare. The expediency of using resource-saving technologies for soil tillage during the cultivation of grain products in agricultural enterprises of the Cherkasy region also indicates by such indicator as the amount of profit per 1 hectare of crops. So, LNZ-Agro (Mini-till for one hectare of crops received a profit of 43947 UAH, “Shpola-Agro-Industry” (No-till –16491

Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

2003-01-01

An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

Insects associated with tropical foliage produced in the coffee growing region of Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis F. Aristizábal

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We conducted a survey of insects and pest management practices on 34 farms growing ornamental tropical foliage plants in the central coffee region of Colombia over two years. Tropical foliage provided habitat for a diverse range of insects. In total, phytophagous or detritivorous insects from six orders, 40 families and 62 genera were collected. The most common were Hemiptera (29 genera from 16 families, followed by Coleoptera (17 genera from 4 families, Diptera (5 genera from 5 families, Lepidoptera (5 genera from 4 families, Hymenoptera (3 genera from 2 families and Orthoptera (2 genera from 2 families. The most common phytophagous species were leaf cutting ants (Atta and Acromyrmex spp., leaf beetles (Chrysomelidae, leafhoppers (Cicadellidae, stinkbugs (Pentatomidae, squash bugs (Coreidae, tree hoppers (Membracidae and plant hoppers (Fulgoridae. Beneficial insects identified from tropical foliage included predators and parasitoids amongst 5 orders, 12 families and 22 genera. The most abundant were predators among the Coccinellidae, Chrysopidae, Reduviidae, Lycidae and Formicidae but only low numbers of parasitoids (Ichneumonidae, Braconidae and Tachinidae were collected. A pest management questionnaire given to growers revealed a preponderance of reliance on broad spectrum insecticides with a smaller number of growers (approximately one third also using some biological control methods. Our survey contributes basic information regarding diversity of Neotropical insects associated with ornamental foliage plants.

GrowYourIC: an open access Python code to facilitate comparison between kinematic models of inner core evolution and seismic observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lasbleis, M.; Day, E. A.; Waszek, L.

2017-12-01

The complex nature of inner core structure has been well-established from seismic studies, with heterogeneities at various length scales, both radially and laterally. Despite this, no geodynamic model has successfully explained all of the observed seismic features. To facilitate comparisons between seismic observations and geodynamic models of inner core growth we have developed a new, open access Python tool - GrowYourIC - that allows users to compare models of inner core structure. The code allows users to simulate different evolution models of the inner core, with user-defined rates of inner core growth, translation and rotation. Once the user has "grown" an inner core with their preferred parameters they can then explore the effect of "their" inner core's evolution on the relative age and growth rate in different regions of the inner core. The code will convert these parameters into seismic properties using either built-in mineral physics models, or user-supplied ones that calculate these seismic properties with users' own preferred mineralogical models. The 3D model of isotropic inner core properties can then be used to calculate the predicted seismic travel time anomalies for a random, or user-specified, set of seismic ray paths through the inner core. A real dataset of inner core body-wave differential travel times is included for the purpose of comparing user-generated models of inner core growth to actual observed travel time anomalies in the top 100km of the inner core. Here, we explore some of the possibilities of our code. We investigate the effect of the limited illumination of the inner core by seismic waves on the robustness of kinematic model interpretation. We test the impact on seismic differential travel time observations of several kinematic models of inner core growth: fast lateral translation; slow differential growth; and inner core super-rotation. We find that a model of inner core evolution incorporating both differential growth and slow

Comparison of Insecticide Susceptibilities of Empoasca vitis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) from Three Main Tea-Growing Regions in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Qi; Yu, Hua-Yang; Niu, Chun-Dong; Yao, Rong; Wu, Shun-Fan; Chen, Zhuo; Gao, Cong-Fen

2015-06-01

Empoasca vitis (Göthe) is an important insect pest in tea-growing areas of China, and chemical control is the main tactic for the management of this pest. Due to the pressure of increasing insecticide resistance and more stringent food safety regulations, development of sound IPM strategies for E. vitis is an urgent matter. This study comparatively evaluated four field populations of E. vitis from three different tea-growing regions in China for their susceptibilities to eight insecticides using a simple leaf-dip methodology. E. vitis was found to be most sensitive to indoxacarb (LC505 mg/liter) and sophocarpidine (LC50>95 mg/liter, a botanical pesticide) regardless of populations. Population (geographical) variations were higher for indoxacarb and imidacloprid than other compounds. Judging by the 95% fiducial limits of LC50 values, all populations had similar susceptibilities to chlorfenapyr, bifenthrin, and acetamiprid or imidacloprid. Correlation analysis suggested that chlorfenapyr and indoxacarb or isoprocarb may have a high risk of cross resistance. Considering potency (LC50) and maximum residual levels, chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin are good insecticide options followed by acetamiprid and indoxacarb. These results provide valuable information to intelligently select insecticides for IPM programs that are efficacious against E. vitis while also managing insecticide resistance and maximum residual levels for tea production in China. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

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Xiaoyu Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

Heavy metal accumulation in leaves and beans of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) in major cacao growing regions in Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Arévalo-Gardini, Enrique; Arévalo-Hernández, Cesar O; Baligar, Virupax C; He, Zhenli L

2017-12-15

Peru is one of the leading exporters of organic cacao beans in the world. However, the accumulation of heavy metals in cacao beans represents a problem for cocoa bean export and chocolate quality. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution and accumulation of heavy metals in cacao leaves and cocoa beans in three major cacao growing regions of Peru. The study was conducted in cacao plantations of 10 to 15years old in three regions of Peru: North (Regions of Tumbes, Piura, Cajamarca, and Amazonas); Center (Regions of Huánuco and San Martin) and South (Junin and Cuzco). Samples of leaf and cacao beans were collected from 70 cacao plantations, and the nature of cacao clone or genotype sampled was recorded. The concentrations of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in leaves and beans were determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Overall, concentrations of heavy metals were below the critical limits; however, the presence of high levels of Cd in cacao grown in Amazonas, Piura, and Tumbes regions is of primary concern. Plantations of cacao with different cacao clones show differences in Cd accumulation both in leaves and cocoa beans. Therefore, it is promising to screen low Cd accumulator cacao genotypes for safe production of cacao on lightly to moderately Cd contaminated soils. Also, synergism between Zn and Cd present both in plant and soil suggests that Zn has a direct effect on Cd accumulation in cacao. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Science.gov (United States)

Skakun, Sergii; Franch, Belen; Vermote, Eric; Roger, Jean-Claude; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Justice, Christopher; Kussul, Nataliia

2017-01-01

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

Ecohydrology in Mediterranean areas: a numerical model to describe growing seasons out of phase with precipitations

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D. Pumo

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The probabilistic description of soil moisture dynamics is a relatively new topic in hydrology. The most common ecohydrological models start from a stochastic differential equation describing the soil water balance, where the unknown quantity, the soil moisture, depends both on spaces and time. Most of the solutions existing in literature are obtained in a probabilistic framework and under steady-state condition; even if this last condition allows the analytical handling of the problem, it has considerably simplified the same problem by subtracting generalities from it.

The steady-state hypothesis, appears perfectly applicable in arid and semiarid climatic areas like those of African's or middle American's savannas, but it seems to be no more valid in areas with Mediterranean climate, where, notoriously, the wet season foregoes the growing season, recharging water into the soil. This moisture stored at the beginning of the growing season (known as soil moisture initial condition has a great importance, especially for deep-rooted vegetation, by enabling survival in absence of rainfalls during the growing season and, however, keeping the water stress low during the first period of the same season.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the soil moisture dynamics using a simple non-steady numerical ecohydrological model. The numerical model here proposed is able to reproduce soil moisture probability density function, obtained analytically in previous studies for different climates and soils in steady-state conditions; consequently it can be used to compute both the soil moisture time-profile and the vegetation static water stress time-profile in non-steady conditions.

Here the differences between the steady-analytical and the non-steady numerical probability density functions are analyzed, showing how the proposed numerical model is able to capture the effects of winter recharge on the soil moisture. The dynamic

Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

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Dina Suryawati

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

Comparison on Phenolic Compounds and Antioxidant Properties of Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot Wines from Four Wine Grape-Growing Regions in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bao Jiang

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·, cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC, superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05 with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

Growing Better Cities: Urban Agriculture for Sustainable Development

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

As the cities grow, so does the number of urban poor. ... Case studies: ... It describes the growth of city networks in Africa and Latin America that focus on ... partners will showcase critical work on adaptation and resilience in hot spot regions.

Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabrielle Benoît

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

2010-01-01

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. French

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

The end of surplus and a growing role in world markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eklof, W.D.

1991-01-01

Rapid economic growth in Asia in recent years has rekindled the region's appetite for energy. This surge in energy consumption since the oil price collapse in 1986 has brought into sharp focus critical challenges facing Asian governments and commercial organizations in the 1990's--challenges that must be met if the economic success of recent years is to continue. Yet supplying energy to fuel economic growth will be more difficult than in the past. Oil reserves in the region are inadequate to support the anticipated growth in demands, and new discoveries may be modest. Gas reserves are plentiful, but not well located to meet the energy needs of major markets. Added to difficulties associated with these resource-based limitations new challenges are emerging: growing consumer demands for transportation fuels and electricity, a growing concern for the environmental impact of energy production and consumption, and the need to rethink long-standing energy policies that were based on expectations of very high future oil prices. These new factors will complicate policy decisions and place new constraints on available energy options. This paper addresses the future development of Asian oil and gas markets in light of these challenges, and provides an assessment of the potential growth of gas markets, the need for growing oil imports into the region, and the need for new refining capacity to meet the growing demand for transportation fuels

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution. While considerable...

Structural phase transition in a growing network model with tunable member intimacy

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kibum; Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-05-01

Users of online communities become more intimate in time by writing posts and exchanging comments to each other. Although a certain level of intimacy among a group of members can be beneficial for the activity of the whole community, too strong intimacy among existing members can make newcomers feel alienated, driving them to leave the community. In this letter, we introduce a growing network model in which we systematically study the effect of member intimacy on the formation of connected component of the network. We introduce a parameter called clinginess and control how the member intimacy affects the communication activity. We observe that cumulative number of users who leave the community exhibits a transition-like behavior, similarly to the discontinuous transition in statistical mechanics models. Implication of our result in constructing a sustainable online community is also discussed.

Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

Science.gov (United States)

Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

2017-12-01

Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

Modeling aquifer behaviour under climate change and high consumption: Case study of the Sfax region, southeast Tunisia

Science.gov (United States)

Boughariou, Emna; Allouche, Nabila; Jmal, Ikram; Mokadem, Naziha; Ayed, Bachaer; Hajji, Soumaya; Khanfir, Hafedh; Bouri, Salem

2018-05-01

The water resources are exhausted by the increasing demand related to the population growth. They are also affected by climate circumstances, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. These areas are already undergoing noticeable shortages and low annual precipitation rate. This paper presents a numerical model of the Sfax shallow aquifer system that was developed by coupling the geographical information system tool ArcGIS 9.3 and ground water modeling system GMS6.5's interface, ground water flow modeling MODFLOW 2000. Being in coastal city and having an arid climate with high consumption rates, this aquifer is undergoing a hydraulic stress situation. Therefore, the groundwater piezometric variations were calibrated for the period 2003-2013 and simulated based on two scenarios; first the constant and growing consumption and second the rainfall forecast as a result of climate change scenario released by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the German International Cooperation Agency "GIZ" using HadCM3 as a general circulation model. The piezometric simulations globally forecast a decrease that is about 0.5 m in 2020 and 1 m in 2050 locally the decrease is more pronounced in "Chaffar" and "Djbeniana" regions and that is more evident for the increasing consumption scenario. The two scenarios announce a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in "Djbeniana" region.

Visualization of airflow growing soap bubbles

Science.gov (United States)

Al Rahbi, Hamood; Bock, Matthew; Ryu, Sangjin

2016-11-01

Visualizing airflow inside growing soap bubbles can answer questions regarding the fluid dynamics of soap bubble blowing, which is a model system for flows with a gas-liquid-gas interface. Also, understanding the soap bubble blowing process is practical because it can contribute to controlling industrial processes similar to soap bubble blowing. In this study, we visualized airflow which grows soap bubbles using the smoke wire technique to understand how airflow blows soap bubbles. The soap bubble blower setup was built to mimic the human blowing process of soap bubbles, which consists of a blower, a nozzle and a bubble ring. The smoke wire was placed between the nozzle and the bubble ring, and smoke-visualized airflow was captured using a high speed camera. Our visualization shows how air jet flows into the growing soap bubble on the ring and how the airflow interacts with the soap film of growing bubble.

Producing an integrated climate-land-energy-water (CLEW) model for glaciated regions in the developing world

Science.gov (United States)

Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.

Growing together: a qualitative study of leading nurse scholars in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Turale, S; Klunklin, A; Chontawan, R

2010-06-01

Asia-Pacific nursing education and research is growing but little is known about the nature and development of nursing scholarship in the region. This qualitative study explored the perspectives of 14 leading Thai scholars about the development, facilitators and barriers relating to Thailand's nursing scholarship. In-depth interviews were digitally recorded, and data were subjected to content analysis. Five themes arose: (1) growing together, (2) visionary leadership, (3) external support to grow nurse scholars, (4) developing nursing through research, and (5) barriers to scholarship. A history of visionary nursing leadership was revealed, underpinned by leaders' values of growing nursing together. Resource sharing among universities, and a significant number of scholarships for study abroad were major facilitators of scholarship growth. Barriers to scholarship included high teaching loads, especially for newly graduated faculty; a low rate of research publications; not enough mentorship for research and changes to teaching practice; and a wide range of different agencies providing courses for entry to practice. Scholarship development in Thailand is a role model for a number of South-East Asian countries, with inclusiveness and collaboration to facilitate the growth of nursing education inside and outside of the country as a hallmark of its character. However, against a backdrop of nursing shortages, Thai scholars are challenged, in the future, to produce meaningful research outcomes, including publications of studies; to collaborate with other health professionals; change practices to overcome high teaching loads; and provide the much needed mentorship for young scholars.

Models of Regional Modernization of the Donbass Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konstantin Viktorovich Pavlov

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the methodical approach to the assessment of a level of development of post-industrial and neoindustrial models of economic modernization in regional aspect on the basis of various indicators. The proposed approach is approved with use of the statistical materials characterizing the state of economy in the regions of Donbass. The strategy of development of Donbass areas and their industrial cities would have to be based (we mean the situation if there were no military operations on this territory on the basis of the model of neoindustrialization assuming development of the sphere of the hi-tech industry, automation and a computerization of productive forces, replacement of physical work by intellectual labor that is radically capable to change nature of work and structure of labor balance of this macro-region. Branches and sectors of a socio-economic complex of the Donbass region using achievements of fundamental and applied science, engineering and design thought for increase in a share of automation, a computerization and mechanization of workplaces, physical and brainwork prior to the beginning of a political conflict in Ukraine have the potential of development. The authors also pay attention to need of studying the agglomerative effect from interaction of the cities and areas of the Donbass euroregion. It is connected, first of all, with development of vertical and horizontal mechanisms of active use of potential of so-called “cities-kernels”, capable to make the catalyzing impact on production, social infrastructure, creation and development of new perspective branches in the cities-satellites.

The Regional Earth System Model (RegESM) using RegCM4 coupled with the MITgcm ocean model: First assessments over the MED-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

Mariotti, Laura; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk; Farneti, Riccardo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Carillo, Adriana; Giorgi, Filippo

2016-04-01

In the framework of global climate studies, there is an increasingly growing concern about the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, where high population density and intense exploitation activities pose severe questions on the sustainability of terrestrial water management, both for the present and the future. Ocean modeling studies suggest that the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation could be weakened in conditions of global greenhouse warming, an event which would undoubtedly affect regional climate, possibly triggering global feedback processes. Experiments with the atmosphere-ocean coupled system confirmed that a good comprehension of Mediterranean processes requires the explicit inclusion of the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the oceanic components, thus achieving a complete, fully coupled description of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle, at the same time gaining new insights in our current ability to reproduce the atmospheric hydrological processes and to close the hydrological balance. These issues are addressed by the upgraded PROTHEUS system which was jointly developed by ENEA and ICTP. Here we present a first evaluation of the performances of the new PROTHEUS system (called PROTHEUS 2.0) composed by the regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al. 2012) coupled with both the ocean model MITgcm (Marshall J. et al. 1997a,b) and the HD river model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) using RegESM (Regional Earth System Model) as a driver. The three-component (atmosphere, ocean and river routing) fully coupled model exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model, surface wind stress, energy and freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model, surface and sub-surface runoff from the atmospheric component to the river routing model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). In order to have water conservation within the system, the river routing component sends the

European scale modeling of sulfur, oxidized nitrogen and photochemical oxidants. Model development and evaluation for the 1994 growing season

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden); Pleijel, K. [Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Goeteborg (Sweden)

1998-09-01

A chemical mechanism, including the relevant reactions leading to the production of ozone and other photochemical oxidants, has been implemented in the MATCH regional tracer transport/chemistry/deposition model. The aim has been to develop a model platform that can be used as a basis for a range of regional scale studies involving atmospheric chemistry, including assessment of the importance of different sources of pollutants to the levels of photochemical oxidants and air pollutant forecasting. Meteorological input data to the model were taken from archived output from the operational version of HIRLAM at SMHI. Evaluation of model calculations over Europe for a six month period in 1994 for a range of chemical components show good results considering known sources of error and uncertainties in input data and model formulation. With limited further work the system is sufficiently good to be applied for scenario studies and for regional scale air pollutant forecasts 42 refs, 24 figs, 17 tabs

How do normal faults grow?

OpenAIRE

Blækkan, Ingvild; Bell, Rebecca; Rotevatn, Atle; Jackson, Christopher; Tvedt, Anette

2018-01-01

Faults grow via a sympathetic increase in their displacement and length (isolated fault model), or by rapid length establishment and subsequent displacement accrual (constant-length fault model). To test the significance and applicability of these two models, we use time-series displacement (D) and length (L) data extracted for faults from nature and experiments. We document a range of fault behaviours, from sympathetic D-L fault growth (isolated growth) to sub-vertical D-L growth trajectorie...

Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

KAUST Repository

Goddard, Scott D.

2015-05-01

Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

A Little Salesmanship "Grows" a Long Way

Science.gov (United States)

Montas, Leah

2012-01-01

Goshen Elementary PTA's membership shrank the first year the author was PTA president. In the back of her mind, she was bothered by the fact that their membership numbers had dropped. So, after she attended a regional session with her vice president on growing membership, she got the courage to propose something different. They discussed with…

A Robust Productivity Model for Grapple Yarding in Fast-Growing Tree Plantations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaan Engelbrecht

2017-10-01

Full Text Available New techniques have recently appeared that can extend the advantages of grapple yarding to fast-growing plantations. The most promising technique consists of an excavator-base un-guyed yarder equipped with new radio-controlled grapple carriages, fed by another excavator stationed on the cut-over. This system is very productive, avoids in-stand traffic, and removes operators from positions of high risk. This paper presents the results of a long-term study conducted on 12 different teams equipped with the new technology, operating in the fast-growing black wattle (Acacia mangium Willd plantations of Sarawak, Malaysia. Data were collected continuously for almost 8 months and represented 555 shifts, or over 55,000 cycles—each recorded individually. Production, utilization, and machine availability were estimated, respectively at: 63 m3 per productive machine hour (excluding all delays, 63% and 93%. Regression analysis of experimental data yielded a strong productivity forecast model that was highly significant, accounted for 50% of the total variability in the dataset and was validated with a non-significant error estimated at less than 1%. The figures reported in this study are especially robust, because they were obtained from a long-term study that covered multiple teams and accumulated an exceptionally large number of observations.

PIEteR : a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smit, A.B.

1996-01-01

To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.

PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly

Geographic determination of the growing origins of Jamaican and international coffee using instrumental neutron activation analysis and other methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antoine, J.M.R.; Hoo Fung, L.A.; Grant, Ch.N.

2016-01-01

This study was undertaken to determine whether elemental analysis could distinguish the growing origins of Jamaican versus international coffee and identify intra-island growing regions. Twenty-four samples of roasted and ground coffee and soluble coffee were collected and analysed using instrumental neutron activation analysis and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. Sixteen elements were selected for statistical evaluation. Soluble clustered discretely from roasted and ground samples. The distinction among roasted and ground samples was not as discrete. Geographic growing regions could be determined by statistical analysis; separating the growing sub-regions in Jamaica would require additional analyses. (author)

Transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kotze, A A

1988-01-01

The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the ..delta../sub 3/ statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed.

The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

2012-11-01

In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

2015-10-01

Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

2003-01-01

in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

China's Soft Power and Growing Influence in Southeast Asia

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hwang, Edward F

2008-01-01

.... By no means is China able to surpass the United States soft power capabilities. As China's economy and influence in the region continue to grow however, China as an alternative to the United States can become a reality...

Grow, Baby, Grow

Science.gov (United States)

Maybe you quit smoking during your pregnancy. Or maybe you struggled and weren’t able to stay quit. Now that your baby is here, trying to stay away from smoking is still important. That’s because the chemicals in smoke can make it harder for your baby to grow like he or she should.

Stream Clustering of Growing Objects

Science.gov (United States)

Siddiqui, Zaigham Faraz; Spiliopoulou, Myra

We study incremental clustering of objects that grow and accumulate over time. The objects come from a multi-table stream e.g. streams of Customer and Transaction. As the Transactions stream accumulates, the Customers’ profiles grow. First, we use an incremental propositionalisation to convert the multi-table stream into a single-table stream upon which we apply clustering. For this purpose, we develop an online version of K-Means algorithm that can handle these swelling objects and any new objects that arrive. The algorithm also monitors the quality of the model and performs re-clustering when it deteriorates. We evaluate our method on the PKDD Challenge 1999 dataset.

Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

2017-12-01

Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

2008-01-01

Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

1979-10-01

This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

Bayesian simultaneous equation models for the analysis of energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Kebreab, E

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT SUMMARY The objective of the current study was to develop Bayesian simultaneous equation models for modelling energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs. A key feature of the Bayesian approach is that parameters are assigned prior distributions, which may reflect the current state...... of nature. In the models, rates of metabolizable energy (ME) intake, protein deposition (PD) and lipid deposition (LD) were treated as dependent variables accounting for residuals being correlated. Two complementary equation systems were used to model ME intake (MEI), PD and LD. Informative priors were...... developed, reflecting current knowledge about metabolic scaling and partial efficiencies of PD and LD rates, whereas flat non-informative priors were used for the reminder of the parameters. The experimental data analysed originate from a balance and respiration trial with 17 cross-bred pigs of three...

Embedded Fibre Bragg Grating Sensor Response Model: Crack Growing Detection in Fibre Reinforced Plastic Materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pereira, Gilmar Ferreira; Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; McGugan, Malcolm

2015-01-01

This article presents a novel method to simulate the sensor output response of a Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor when embedded in a host material (Composite material or adhesive), during a crack growing/damage event. A finite element model of the crack growth mechanisms was developed, and differ...... the applicability of this technique to more complicated structures, and to be used as a structural health monitoring design tool....

On the mechanics of thin films and growing surfaces

KAUST Repository

Holland, M. A.

2013-05-24

Many living structures are coated by thin films, which have distinct mechanical properties from the bulk. In particular, these thin layers may grow faster or slower than the inner core. Differential growth creates a balanced interplay between tension and compression and plays a critical role in enhancing structural rigidity. Typical examples with a compressive outer surface and a tensile inner core are the petioles of celery, caladium, or rhubarb. While plant physiologists have studied the impact of tissue tension on plant rigidity for more than a century, the fundamental theory of growing surfaces remains poorly understood. Here, we establish a theoretical and computational framework for continua with growing surfaces and demonstrate its application to classical phenomena in plant growth. To allow the surface to grow independently of the bulk, we equip it with its own potential energy and its own surface stress. We derive the governing equations for growing surfaces of zero thickness and obtain their spatial discretization using the finite-element method. To illustrate the features of our new surface growth model we simulate the effects of growth-induced longitudinal tissue tension in a stalk of rhubarb. Our results demonstrate that different growth rates create a mechanical environment of axial tissue tension and residual stress, which can be released by peeling off the outer layer. Our novel framework for continua with growing surfaces has immediate biomedical applications beyond these classical model problems in botany: it can be easily extended to model and predict surface growth in asthma, gastritis, obstructive sleep apnoea, brain development, and tumor invasion. Beyond biology and medicine, surface growth models are valuable tools for material scientists when designing functionalized surfaces with distinct user-defined properties. © The Author(s) 2013.

A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

2016-01-01

Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

Long-wave forcing for regional atmospheric modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Storch, H. von; Langenberg, H.; Feser, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1999-07-01

A new method, named 'spectral nudging', of linking a regional model to the driving large-scale model simulated or analyzed by a global model is proposed and tested. Spectral nudging is based on the idea that regional-scale climate statistics are conditioned by the interplay between continental-scale atmospheric conditions and such regional features as marginal seas and mountain ranges. Following this 'downscaling' idea, the regional model is forced to satisfy not only boundary conditions, possibly in a boundary sponge region, but also large-scale flow conditions inside the integration area. We demonstrate that spectral nudging succeeds in keeping the simulated state close to the driving state at large scales, while generating smaller-scale features. We also show that the standard boundary forcing technique in current use allows the regional model to develop internal states conflicting with the large-scale state. It is concluded that spectral nudging may be seen as a suboptimal and indirect data assimilation technique. (orig.) [German] Eine neue Methode, genannt 'spektrales nudging', ein Regionalmodell an das durch ein Globalmodell simulierte grossskalige Antriebsfeld zu koppeln, wird vorgestellt und getestet. Das spektrale nudging basiert auf der Annahme, dass regionale Klimastatistik durch die Wechselwirkung zwischen dem kontinental-skaligen atmosphaerischen Zustand und regionalen Gegebenheiten, wie kleinere Seen und Gebirgszuege, bestimmt wird. Demnach muss das Regionalmodell nicht nur die Randbedingungen erfuellen, sondern auch die grossskaligen Zustaende innerhalb des Integrationsgebietes wiedergeben koennen. Wir zeigen, dass durch das spektrale nudging der grossskalige modellierte Zustand nahe an dem des Antriebsfeldes liegt, ohne die Modellierung regionaler Phaenomene zu beeintraechtigen. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass das Regionalmodell durch die zur Zeit benutzte Antriebstechnik ueber den Modellrand interne Felder produzieren kann

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2011-03-01

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PIECZKA I.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

Distribution of free and total aluminium in some cocoa-growing soils ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Western Region of Ghana is currently carrying the bulk of Ghana's cocoa, and so it is important to investigate the amounts and distribution of total and free Al oxides in some cocoa-growing soils from the region. Six soil series belonging to one major compound association of soils occurring in a toposequence, the ...

Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olson, R.J.

2002-03-19

Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

A Comparison of Vacancy Dynamics between Growing and Shrinking Cities Using the Land Transformation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaekyung Lee

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Every city seeks opportunities to spur economic developments and, depending on its type, vacant land can be seen as a potential threat or an opportunity to achieve these developments. Although vacant land exists in all cities, the causes and effects of changes in vacant land can differ. Growing cities may have more vacant land than shrinking cities because of large scale annexation. Meanwhile, depopulation and economic downturn may increase the total amount of vacant and abandoned properties. Despite various causes of increase and decrease of vacant land, the ability to predict future vacancy patterns—where future vacant parcels may occur—could be a critical test to set up appropriate development strategies and land use policies, especially in shrinking cities, to manage urban decline and regeneration efforts more wisely. This study compares current and future vacancy patterns of a growing city (Fort Worth, TX, USA and a shrinking city (Chicago, IL, USA, by employing the Land Transformation Model (LTM to predict for future vacant lands. This research predicts and produces possible vacancy pattern scenarios by 2020 and deciphers the ranking of determinants of vacant land in each city type. The outcomes of this study indicate that the LTM can be useful for simulating vacancy patterns and the causes of vacancy vary in both growing and shrinking cities. Socio-economic factors such as unemployment rate and household income are powerful determinants of vacancy in a growing city, while physical and transportation-related conditions such as proximity to highways, vehicle accessibility, or building conditions show a stronger influence on increasing vacant land in a shrinking city.

Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

2000-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, C.; Qin, C.

2014-01-01

This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

Assessment of drought during corn growing season in Northeast China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qi; Hu, Zhenghua

2018-04-01

Northeast China has experienced extensive climate change during the past decades. Corn is the primary production crop in China and is sensitive to meteorological disasters, especially drought. Drought has thus greatly endangered crop production and the country's food security. The majority of previous studies has not highlighted farming adaptation activities undertaken within the changed climate, which should not be neglected. In this study, we assessed drought hazard in the corn vegetation growing period, the reproductive growing period, and the whole growing period based on data for yearly corn phenology, daily precipitation, and temperature gathered at 26 agro-meteorological stations across Northeast China from 1981 to 2009. The M-K trend test was used to detect trends in sowing date and drought. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to describe drought. Drought frequency and intensity were used to assess the drought hazard in the region. We found that the sowing date was delayed in the southern part of the study area, coupled with a trend towards a shorter and more humid vegetation growing period. In the northern part of the study area, an earlier sowing date increased the length of the vegetation growing period and the reproductive growing period, while drying trends occurred within the two corn growing periods. We assessed the drought hazard during each growing period: the reproductive growing period faced a more severe drought hazard and was also the period where corn was most sensitive to water stress. Drought hazard during the total growing period was closely related to corn yield.

Growing a market economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

1997-09-01

This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view of society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.

Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the mountainous areas in northeast China, and south of the Tropic of Cancer. The GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the temperature (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10

Far East LPG sales will grow faster than in West

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

LPG sales through 2010 in regions east of the Suez Canal (East of Suez) will grow at more than twice those in regions west of the canal. East-of-Suez sales will grow at more than 4.0%/year, compared to slightly less than 2.0%/year growth in sales West of Suez. East-of-Suez sales will reach 92 million tons/year (tpy) by 2010, accounting for 39% of the worldwide total. This share was 31% in1995 and only 27% in 1990. LPG sales worldwide will reach 192 million tons in 2000 and 243 million tpy by 2010. In 1995, they were 163 million tons. These are some of the major conclusions of a recent study by Frank R. Spadine, Christine Kozar, and Rudy Clark of New York City-based consultant Poten and Partners Inc. Details of the study are in the fall report ''World Trade in LPG 1990--2010''. This paper discusses demand segments, seaborne balance, Western sources, largest trading region, North American supplies, and other supplies

Theoretical models for the regulation of DNA replication in fast-growing bacteria

Science.gov (United States)

Creutziger, Martin; Schmidt, Mischa; Lenz, Peter

2012-09-01

Growing in always changing environments, Escherichia coli cells are challenged by the task to coordinate growth and division. In particular, adaption of their growth program to the surrounding medium has to guarantee that the daughter cells obtain fully replicated chromosomes. Replication is therefore to be initiated at the right time, which is particularly challenging in media that support fast growth. Here, the mother cell initiates replication not only for the daughter but also for the granddaughter cells. This is possible only if replication occurs from several replication forks that all need to be correctly initiated. Despite considerable efforts during the last 40 years, regulation of this process is still unknown. Part of the difficulty arises from the fact that many details of the relevant molecular processes are not known. Here, we develop a novel theoretical strategy for dealing with this general problem: instead of analyzing a single model, we introduce a wide variety of 128 different models that make different assumptions about the unknown processes. By comparing the predictions of these models we are able to identify the key quantities that allow the experimental discrimination of the different models. Analysis of these quantities yields that out of the 128 models 94 are not consistent with available experimental data. From the remaining 34 models we are able to conclude that mass growth and DNA replication need either to be truly coupled, by coupling DNA replication initiation to the event of cell division, or to the amount of accumulated mass. Finally, we make suggestions for experiments to further reduce the number of possible regulation scenarios.

The transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotze, A.A.

1988-01-01

The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the Δ 3 statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed

Feed-forward and generalized regression neural networks in modeling feeding behavior of pigs in the grow-finishing phase

Science.gov (United States)

Feeding patterns in group-housed grow-finishing pigs have been investigated for use in management decisions, identifying sick animals, and determining genetic differences within a herd. Development of models to predict swine feeding behaviour has been limited due the large number of potential enviro...

Ultrastructural differences between wall apices of growing and non-growing hyphae of Schizophyllum commune

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeulen, C.A.; Wessels, J.G.H.

1984-01-01

Newly synthesized chitin at the hyphal apex of Schizophyllum commune was shown to be highly susceptible to chitinase degradiation and solubilization by dilute mineral acid. With time this chitin became gradually more resistant to these treatments. With a combination of the shadow-cast technique and electron microscopic autoradiography it could be shown that this process occurred as the newly synthesized chitin moved into subapical parts of growing hyphae but also in non-growing apices which had ceased growth after incorporation of the N-acetyl[6- 3 H]glucosamine. These results are in agreement with a model which explains apical morphogenesis by assuming that the newly synthesized wall material at the apex is plastic due to the presence of individual polymer chains but becomes rigidified because of subsequent physical and chemical changes involving these polymers. (Author)

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

How can hydrological modeling help to understand process dynamics in sparsely gauged tropical regions - case study Mata Âtlantica, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Künne, Annika; Penedo, Santiago; Schuler, Azeneth; Bardy Prado, Rachel; Kralisch, Sven; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

2015-04-01

To ensure long-term water security for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in the emerging country of Brazil with fast-growing markets and technologies, understanding of catchment hydrology is essential. Yet, hydrological analysis, high resolution temporal and spatial monitoring and reliable meteo-hydrological data are insufficient to fully understand hydrological processes in the region and to predict future trends. Physically based hydrological modeling can help to expose uncertainties of measured data, predict future trends and contribute to physical understanding about the watershed. The Brazilian Atlantic rainforest (Mata Atlântica) is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. After the Portuguese colonization, its original expansion of 1.5 million km² was reduced to only 7% of the former area. Due to forest fragmentation, overexploitation and soil degradation, pressure on water resources in the region has significantly increased. Climatically, the region possesses distinctive wet and dry periods. While extreme precipitation events in the rainy season cause floods and landslides, dry periods can lead to water shortages, especially in the agricultural and domestic supply sectors. To ensure both, the protection of the remnants of Atlantic rainforest biome as well as water supply, a hydrological understanding of this sparsely gauged region is essential. We will present hydrological models of two meso- to large-scale catchments (Rio Macacu and Rio Dois Rios) within the Mata Âtlantica in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The results show how physically based models can contribute to hydrological system understanding within the region and answer what-if scenarios, supporting regional planners and decision makers in integrated water resources management.

Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prixia Nieto

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Kipping

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

2016-04-01

The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

Automated measurement of epidermal thickness from optical coherence tomography images using line region growing

Science.gov (United States)

Delacruz, Jomer; Weissman, Jesse; Gossage, Kirk

2010-02-01

Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive imaging modality that acquires cross sectional images of tissue in-vivo. It accelerates skin diagnosis by eliminating invasive biopsy and laborious histology in the process. Dermatologists have widely used it for looking at morphology of skin diseases such as psoriasis, dermatitis, basal cell carcinoma etc. Skin scientists have also successfully used it for looking at differences in epidermal thickness and its underlying structure with respect to age, body sites, ethnicity, gender, and other related factors. Similar to other in-vivo imaging systems, OCT images suffer from a high degree of speckle and noise content, which hinders examination of tissue structures. Most of the previous work in OCT segmentation of skin was done manually. This compromised the quality of the results by limiting the analyses to a few frames per area. In this paper, we discuss a region growing method for automatic identification of the upper and lower boundaries of the epidermis in living human skin tissue. This image analysis method utilizes images obtained from a frequency-domain OCT. This system is high-resolution and high-speed, and thus capable of capturing volumetric images of the skin in short time. The three-dimensional (3D) data provides additional information that is used in the segmentation process to help compensate for the inherent noise in the images. This method not only provides a better estimation of the epidermal thickness, but also generates a 3D surface map of the epidermal-dermal junction, from which underlying topography can be visualized and further quantified.

SPI-Based Analyses of Drought Changes over the Past 60 Years in China’s Major Crop-Growing Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lang Xia

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the changes in drought patterns in China’s major crop-growing areas over the past 60 years. The analysis was done using both weather station data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI rainfall data to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. The results showed that the occurrences of extreme drought were the most serious in recent years in the Southwest China and Sichuan crop-growing areas. The Yangtze River (MLRY and South China crop-growing areas experienced extreme droughts during 1960–1980, whereas the Northeast China and Huang–Huai–Hai crop-growing areas experienced extreme droughts around 2003. The analysis showed that the SPIs calculated by TRMM data at time scales of one, three, and six months were reliable for monitoring drought in the study regions, but for 12 months, the SPIs calculated by gauge and TRMM data showed less consistency. The analysis of the spatial distribution of droughts over the past 15 years using TMI rainfall data revealed that more than 60% of the area experienced extreme drought in 2011 over the MLRY region and in 1998 over the Huang–Huai–Hai region. The frequency of different intensity droughts presented significant spatial heterogeneity in each crop-growing region.

On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.; Mei, Rui; Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel; Thornton, Peter E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated

Environmental Influences on the Growing Season Duration and Ripening of Diverse Miscanthus Germplasm Grown in Six Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Nunn

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The development of models to predict yield potential and quality of a Miscanthus crop must consider climatic limitations and the duration of growing season. As a biomass crop, yield and quality are impacted by the timing of plant developmental transitions such as flowering and senescence. Growth models are available for the commercially grown clone Miscanthus x giganteus (Mxg, but breeding programs have been working to expand the germplasm available, including development of interspecies hybrids. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of diverse germplasm beyond the range of environments considered suitable for a Miscanthus crop to be grown. To achieve this, six field sites were planted as part of the EU OPTIMISC project in 2012 in a longitudinal gradient from West to East: Wales—Aberystwyth, Netherlands—Wageningen, Stuttgart—Germany, Ukraine—Potash, Turkey—Adana, and Russia—Moscow. Each field trial contained three replicated plots of the same 15 Miscanthus germplasm types. Through the 2014 growing season, phenotypic traits were measured to determine the timing of developmental stages key to ripening; the tradeoff between growth (yield and quality (biomass ash and moisture content. The hottest site (Adana showed an accelerated growing season, with emergence, flowering and senescence occurring before the other sites. However, the highest yields were produced at Potash, where emergence was delayed by frost and the growing season was shortest. Flowering triggers varied with species and only in Mxg was strongly linked to accumulated thermal time. Our results show that a prolonged growing season is not essential to achieve high yields if climatic conditions are favorable and in regions where the growing season is bordered by frost, delaying harvest can improve quality of the harvested biomass.

Abscisic Acid accumulates at positive turgor potential in excised soybean seedling growing zones.

Science.gov (United States)

Creelman, R A; Mullet, J E

1991-04-01

Abscisic acid (ABA) accumulated in soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr. cv Williams) hypocotyl elongating regions when seedlings were transferred to low water potential vermiculite (Psi = -0.3 megapascals) even though positive turgor is retained in this tissue. Accumulation of ABA in growing zones could occur from de novo biosynthesis within this tissue or transport from adjacent nongrowing zones. Both growing and nongrowing hypocotyl and root tissues accumulated significant levels of ABA when excised and dehydrated to reduce turgor. Surprisingly, excised growing zones (which experienced no water loss) also accumulated ABA when incubated in darkness for 4 hours at 100% relative humidity and 29 degrees C. Induction of ABA accumulation in the excised elongating region of the hypocotyl was not caused by disruption of root pressure or wounding. While excision of hypocotyl elongating regions induced ABA accumulation, no change in either extensin or p33 mRNA levels was observed. Accumulation of extensin or p33 mRNA required more severe wounding. This suggests that ABA is not involved in the response of these genes in wounded tissue and that wound signals are not causing ABA accumulation in excised tissue. Accumulation of ABA in excised elongating regions was correlated with growth inhibition and a decline in turgor to the yield threshold (Psi;(p) = 0.37 megapascals; R Matyssek, S Maruyama, JS Boyer [1988] Plant Physiol 86: 1163-1167). Inhibiting hypocotyl growth by transferring seedlings to lower temperatures or light did not cause ABA accumulation. We conclude that induction of ABA accumulation in growing zones is more sensitive to changes in turgor than the induction which occurs in mature tissues.

Models to quantify excretion of dry matter, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon in growing pigs fed regional diets

OpenAIRE

Jørgensen, Henry; Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Vu, Van Thi Khanh; Poulsen, Hanne Damgaard

2013-01-01

Modern pig production contributes to many environmental problems that relate to manure, especially in areas with highly intensive production systems and in regions like Asia where the regulative control is not effective. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use three different pig diets varying in dietary protein, fibre and fat as representative for Danish (DK), Thai (TH) and Vietnamese (VN) pig production to develop and evaluate different approaches to predict/calculate excretion fr...

Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

2009-01-01

The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

2009-12-01

The effort to constrain regional scale carbon budgets benefits from assimilating as many high quality data sources as possible in order to reduce uncertainties. Two of the most common approaches used in this field, bottom-up and top-down techniques, both have their strengths and weaknesses, and partly build on very different sources of information to train, drive, and validate the models. Within the context of the ORCA2 project, we follow both bottom-up and top-down modeling strategies with the ultimate objective of reconciling their surface flux estimates. The ORCA2 top-down component builds on a coupled WRF-STILT transport module that resolves the footprint function of a CO2 concentration measurement in high temporal and spatial resolution. Datasets involved in the current setup comprise GDAS meteorology, remote sensing products, VULCAN fossil fuel inventories, boundary conditions from CarbonTracker, and high-accuracy time series of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Surface fluxes of CO2 are normally provided through a simple diagnostic model which is optimized against atmospheric observations. For the present study, we replaced the simple model with fluxes generated by an advanced bottom-up process model, Biome-BGC, which uses state-of-the-art algorithms to resolve plant-physiological processes, and 'grow' a biosphere based on biogeochemical conditions and climate history. This approach provides a more realistic description of biomass and nutrient pools than is the case for the simple model. The process model ingests various remote sensing data sources as well as high-resolution reanalysis meteorology, and can be trained against biometric inventories and eddy-covariance data. Linking the bottom-up flux fields to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations through the transport module allows evaluating the spatial representativeness of the BGC flux fields, and in that way assimilates more of the available information than either of the individual modeling techniques alone

North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

2009-05-01

Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2015-01-01

This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

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K. N. Kikkas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

Science.gov (United States)

Herzfeld, Mike

2009-02-01

An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

2010-10-15

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

Ecosystem-management-based Management Models of Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation and Its Eco-economic Benefits Analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2010-01-01

The paper expounded the basic concept and principles of ecosystem management,and analyzed the state and trend of industrial plantation ecosystem management in other countries.Based on the analysis of typical case studies,the eco-economic benefits were evaluated for the management models of fast-growing and high-yield plantations.

The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

1997-01-01

A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

Modeling skin temperature to assess the effect of air velocity to mitigate heat stress among growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerg, Bjarne; Pedersen, Poul; Morsing, Svend

2017-01-01

It is generally accepted that increased air velocity can help to mitigate heat stress in livestock housing, however, it is not fully clear how much it helps and significant uncertainties exists when the air temperature approaches the animal body temperature. This study aims to develop a skin...... temperature model to generated data for determining the potential effect of air velocity to mitigate heat stress among growing pigs housed in warm environment. The model calculates the skin temperature as function of body temperature, air temperature and the resistances for heat transfer from the body...

Growing media [Chapter 5

Science.gov (United States)

Douglass F. Jacobs; Thomas D. Landis; Tara Luna

2009-01-01

Selecting the proper growing medium is one of the most important considerations in nursery plant production. A growing medium can be defined as a substance through which roots grow and extract water and nutrients. In native plant nurseries, a growing medium can consist of native soil but is more commonly an "artificial soil" composed of materials such as peat...

Dust devil dynamics in the internal vortex region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onishchenko, O G; Pokhotelov, O A; Horton, W

2015-01-01

A hydrodynamic model for dust devil dynamics in the internal vortex region is analyzed. It is shown that the results concerning the growing plumes investigated by Onishchenko et al (2014) for the short time domain can be applied to the study of vortex motion in the internal region for longer times. It is demonstrated that these convective plumes in an atmosphere with weak, large-scale toroidal motion inhomogeneity in the vertical direction can be a subject for further exponential growth over time. (invited comment)

Growing skin: A computational model for skin expansion in reconstructive surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Joseph Ploch, Christopher; Wong, Jonathan; Gosain, Arun K.; Kuhl, Ellen

2011-10-01

The goal of this manuscript is to establish a novel computational model for stretch-induced skin growth during tissue expansion. Tissue expansion is a common surgical procedure to grow extra skin for reconstructing birth defects, burn injuries, or cancerous breasts. To model skin growth within the framework of nonlinear continuum mechanics, we adopt the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into an elastic and a growth part. Within this concept, we characterize growth as an irreversible, stretch-driven, transversely isotropic process parameterized in terms of a single scalar-valued growth multiplier, the in-plane area growth. To discretize its evolution in time, we apply an unconditionally stable, implicit Euler backward scheme. To discretize it in space, we utilize the finite element method. For maximum algorithmic efficiency and optimal convergence, we suggest an inner Newton iteration to locally update the growth multiplier at each integration point. This iteration is embedded within an outer Newton iteration to globally update the deformation at each finite element node. To demonstrate the characteristic features of skin growth, we simulate the process of gradual tissue expander inflation. To visualize growth-induced residual stresses, we simulate a subsequent tissue expander deflation. In particular, we compare the spatio-temporal evolution of area growth, elastic strains, and residual stresses for four commonly available tissue expander geometries. We believe that predictive computational modeling can open new avenues in reconstructive surgery to rationalize and standardize clinical process parameters such as expander geometry, expander size, expander placement, and inflation timing.

FAST-GROWING COMPANIES FROM TIMIS COUNTRY: DOES THE AGE MATTER?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ALB MARIA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relation between the company’s age and its growth and analyses the influence of age on growth by studying a specific group of companies, namely fast-growing companies from the Timis County, Romania. We have studied the performance of the fast-growing companies in the period of 2010-2013 using the STATA IC 12 software application. A linear regression analysis model with two variables was used. The dependent variable used was the rapid growth of the company, measured by the growth rate of the turnover and the independent variable used was the age of the company, measured by the number of years. The model was tested using the number of employees as a control variable. This paper’s conclusion is in agreement with many other findings from the literature in this subject. The presented results show that the turnover growth rates in the Romanian fast-growing companies tend to drop from one year to another, as the companies grow older.

China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mischke, Peggy

As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits......, expanded and applied in this regard. The theories underlying this research are stemming from various scientific disciplines, such as energy and power engineering, macro- and energy-economics, and power project finance. Cross-cutting aspects are the harmonization of Chinese and international energy...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

Level crossing analysis of growing surfaces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahbazi, F; Sobhanian, S; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi; Khorram, S; Frootan, G R; Zahed, H

2003-01-01

We investigate the average frequency of positive slope ν + α , crossing the height α = h - h-bar in the surface growing processes. The exact level crossing analysis of the random deposition model and the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation in the strong coupling limit before creation of singularities is given

Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

A GIS TOOL TO EVALUATE THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF HYDRO-THERMIC FEATURES DURING GROWING SEASON OF VEGETABLE CROPS IN ELBE RIVER LOWLAND (POLABI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

VERA POTOP

2012-11-01

Full Text Available A GIS tool to evaluate the spatial evolution of hydro-thermic features during growing season of vegetable crops in Elbe River lowland (Polabi. This article presents the results of the first study on combined mezoclimatological, microclimatological and topographical tools for evaluating precision farming in the growth of vegetable crops in the Elbe River lowland (Polabi region from the Czech Republic. We assess the variability of basically climatological characteristics in relation to topographic characteristics at the regional (Polabi and local (agricultural farm scales. At regional scale, interpolation approach is based on local linear regression and universal kriging interpolation. At local scale, two conventional interpolation methods, spline and local ordinary kriging with a Gaussian model variance across the fields, were applied. The local spline interpolators have been used in developing digital elevation models (DEMs and to determine the slope angle inclination of vegetable fields. The DEMs of the vegetable crops fields was developed at a 10 m x 10 m resolution based on elevation data collected in the field by a hand-held RTK- Global Positioning System receiver. This tool allowed the distinction of microclimatic conditions that produce altitude-slope-related patterns of the spatial-temporal distribution of the basic meteorological elements during growing season of vegetable crops. The effect of slope on diurnal extreme temperatures in the vegetable cropped field conditions was more pronounced than that of elevation. Accordingly to developed maps, the warmest and longest duration of sunshine, and the least precipitation totals during growing season occurred in the middle part of Polabi.

Intraspecific Variability of Rotylenchulus reniformis from Cotton-growing Regions in the United States

OpenAIRE

Agudelo, Paula; Robbins, Robert T.; Stewart, James McD.; Szalanski, Allen L.

2005-01-01

Reniform nematode (Rotylenchulus reniformis) is a major pest of cotton in the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to examine the variation of reniform nematode populations from cotton-growing locations in the United States where it is prevalent. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis were used to determine the variability of morphology in males and immature females. Reproduction indices of populations were measured on selected soybean and cotton ge...

A novel region-growing based semi-automatic segmentation protocol for three-dimensional condylar reconstruction using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tong Xi

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To present and validate a semi-automatic segmentation protocol to enable an accurate 3D reconstruction of the mandibular condyles using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Approval from the regional medical ethics review board was obtained for this study. Bilateral mandibular condyles in ten CBCT datasets of patients were segmented using the currently proposed semi-automatic segmentation protocol. This segmentation protocol combined 3D region-growing and local thresholding algorithms. The segmentation of a total of twenty condyles was performed by two observers. The Dice-coefficient and distance map calculations were used to evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. RESULTS: The mean inter-observer Dice-coefficient was 0.98 (range [0.95-0.99]. An average 90th percentile distance of 0.32 mm was found, indicating an excellent inter-observer similarity of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. No systematic errors were observed in the currently proposed segmentation protocol. CONCLUSION: The novel semi-automated segmentation protocol is an accurate and reproducible tool to segment and render condyles in 3D. The implementation of this protocol in the clinical practice allows the CBCT to be used as an imaging modality for the quantitative analysis of condylar morphology.

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

2016-01-01

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Energy and externality environmental regional model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

2000-01-01

The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km resolution. While...

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI: Data Assimilating

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)...

Influence of Asian outflow on Rishiri Island, northernmost Japan: Application of radon as a tracer for characterizing fetch regions and evaluating a global 3D model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Chunmao; Yoshikawa-Inoue, Hisayuki; Matsueda, Hidekadzu; Sawa, Yosuke; Niwa, Yosuke; Wada, Akira; Tanimoto, Hiroshi

2012-04-01

Atmospheric 222Rn was monitored from December 2008 to November 2010 on Rishiri Island (45°07‧N, 141°12‧E), northernmost Japan. Seasonal 222Rn variation was characterized by high concentrations from November to February and low concentrations from May to July, caused by the alternation of continental and maritime fetch regions. 222Rn tracer and back trajectory cluster analyses indicated that the predominant continental fetch region was southeastern Siberia and northeastern China. 222Rn emitted from China and South Korea, whose economies are growing rapidly, did not significantly affect the Rishiri site. The major maritime fetch region was the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. A global three-dimensional model (NICAM-TM) accurately simulated 222Rn concentrations on Rishiri Island and in the seasonal fetch regions. The time series of 222Rn data will make it possible to evaluate the sources and sinks of atmospheric greenhouse gases being monitored at Rishiri Island, which complements other sites in the Asia-Pacific rim region, and to validate model simulations used to examine trans-boundary air pollution.

Automated grain extraction and classification by combining improved region growing segmentation and shape descriptors in electromagnetic mill classification system

Science.gov (United States)

Budzan, Sebastian

2018-04-01

In this paper, the automatic method of grain detection and classification has been presented. As input, it uses a single digital image obtained from milling process of the copper ore with an high-quality digital camera. The grinding process is an extremely energy and cost consuming process, thus granularity evaluation process should be performed with high efficiency and time consumption. The method proposed in this paper is based on the three-stage image processing. First, using Seeded Region Growing (SRG) segmentation with proposed adaptive thresholding based on the calculation of Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) all grains are detected. In the next step results of the detection are improved using information about the shape of the detected grains using distance map. Finally, each grain in the sample is classified into one of the predefined granularity class. The quality of the proposed method has been obtained by using nominal granularity samples, also with a comparison to the other methods.

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa: Data Assimilating

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution....

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu: Data Assimilating

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution....

Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui

1992-01-01

The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

Importance of growth characteristics for yield of barley in different growing systems: will growth characteristics describe yield diffently in different growing systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Kristian; Ericson, Lars

2008-01-01

The interest in organic grown cereals has increased the need for variety tests under organic growing systems and/or the knowledge on whether growth characteristics describe yield differently under conventional and organic conditions. This paper is a contribution to that question by examining...... the relationships between some important growth characteristics in barley trials in both systems in Northern Sweden and in Denmark. Mixed model analyses were used for regressions of growth characteristics (or transformations of those) on yield (and log-transformed yield), allowing the slope to depend on the growing...... system. The analyses showed that diseases seemed to have a less negative effect on yield in the organic growing system than in the conventional growing system if pesticides were not applied. For other characteristics the effect depended on the country. This was the case for grain characteristics where...

Abscisic Acid Accumulates at Positive Turgor Potential in Excised Soybean Seedling Growing Zones 1

Science.gov (United States)

Creelman, Robert A.; Mullet, John E.

1991-01-01

Abscisic acid (ABA) accumulated in soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr. cv Williams) hypocotyl elongating regions when seedlings were transferred to low water potential vermiculite (Ψ = −0.3 megapascals) even though positive turgor is retained in this tissue. Accumulation of ABA in growing zones could occur from de novo biosynthesis within this tissue or transport from adjacent nongrowing zones. Both growing and nongrowing hypocotyl and root tissues accumulated significant levels of ABA when excised and dehydrated to reduce turgor. Surprisingly, excised growing zones (which experienced no water loss) also accumulated ABA when incubated in darkness for 4 hours at 100% relative humidity and 29°C. Induction of ABA accumulation in the excised elongating region of the hypocotyl was not caused by disruption of root pressure or wounding. While excision of hypocotyl elongating regions induced ABA accumulation, no change in either extensin or p33 mRNA levels was observed. Accumulation of extensin or p33 mRNA required more severe wounding. This suggests that ABA is not involved in the response of these genes in wounded tissue and that wound signals are not causing ABA accumulation in excised tissue. Accumulation of ABA in excised elongating regions was correlated with growth inhibition and a decline in turgor to the yield threshold (Ψ;p = 0.37 megapascals; R Matyssek, S Maruyama, JS Boyer [1988] Plant Physiol 86: 1163-1167). Inhibiting hypocotyl growth by transferring seedlings to lower temperatures or light did not cause ABA accumulation. We conclude that induction of ABA accumulation in growing zones is more sensitive to changes in turgor than the induction which occurs in mature tissues. Images Figure 2 PMID:16668113

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

Assessing the performance of two models on calculating maize actual evapotranspiration in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Wang, J. L.; Zhao, C. X.; McGiffen, M. E.; Liu, J. B.; Wang, G. D.

2018-02-01

The two-step and one-step models for calculating evapotranspiration of maize were evaluated in a semi-humid and drought-prone region of northern China. Data were collected in the summers of 2013 and 2014 to determine relative model accuracy in calculating maize evaopotranspiration. The two-step model predicted daily evaoptranspiration with crop coefficients proposed by FAO and crop coefficient calibrated by local field data; the one-step model predicted daily evapotranspiration with coefficients derived by other researcher and coefficients calibrated by local field data. The predicted daily evapotranspiration in 2013 and 2014 growing seasons with the above two different models was both compared with the observed evapotranspiration with eddy covariance method. Furthermore, evapotranspiration in different growth stages of 2013 and 2014 maize growing seasons was predicted using the models with the local calibrated coefficients. The results indicated that calibration of models was necessary before using them to predict daily evapotranspiration. The model with the calibrated coefficients performed better with higher coefficient of determination and index of agreement and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error than before. And the two-step model better predicted daily evapotranspiration than the one-step model in our experimental field. Nevertheless, as to prediction ET of different growth stages, there still had some uncertainty when predicting evapotranspiration in different year. So the comparisons suggested that model prediction of crop evapotranspiration was practical, but requires calibration and validation with more data. Thus, considerable improvement is needed for these two models to be practical in predicting evapotranspiration for maize and other crops, more field data need to be measured, and an in-depth study still needs to be continued.

New Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

Science.gov (United States)

Jorjiashvili, N.

2012-12-01

The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates the those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Because of this, many peak ground acceleration attenuation relations have been developed by different authors. Besides, a few attenuation relations were developed for Caucasus region: Ambraseys et al. (1996,2005) which were based on entire European region and they were not focused locally on Caucasus Region; Smit et.al. (2000) that was based on a small amount of acceleration data that really is not enough. Since 2003 construction of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started with the help of number of International organizations, Projects and Private companies. The works conducted involved scientific as well as organizational activities: Resolving technical problems concerning communication and data transmission. Thus, today we have a possibility to get real time data and make scientific research based on digital seismic data. Generally, ground motion and damage are influenced by the magnitude of the earthquake, the distance from the seismic source to site, the local ground conditions and the characteristics of buildings. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. This is the reason why this topic is emphasized in this study. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models are obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. Also site ground conditions are considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage

Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Caniëls, M.C.J.; Verspagen, B.

2001-01-01

This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D). The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical

MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

Freezing tolerance of wheat cultivars at the early growing season ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cold stress is a worldwide abiotic stress in temperate regions that affects plant development and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars and other winter crops. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of freezing stress at the early growing season on survival and also the relationship between resistances ...

Grow--a computer subroutine that projects the growth of trees in the Lake States' forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Gary J. Brand

1981-01-01

A computer subroutine, Grow, has been written in 1977 Standard FORTRAN to implement a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States' forests. Grow is a small and easy-to-use version of the growth model. All the user has to do is write a calling program to read initial conditions, call Grow, and summarize the results.

Impact of Germany's energy transition on the Nordic power market – A market-based multi-region energy system model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zakeri, Behnam; Virasjoki, Vilma; Syri, Sanna; Connolly, David; Mathiesen, Brian V.; Welsch, Manuel

2016-01-01

The EU energy policy aims at creating a single European electricity market through market couplings and grid expansions. To analyse the implications of such power market couplings, we propose a market-based multi-region energy system model. The model simulates a multi-region power market (by applying market optimization and network theory), with detailed representation of each region as an energy system (by simulation of both heat and power sectors). We examine the impact of further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Germany on the Nordic power market. The results indicate that the average electricity price slightly grows in the Nordic power market after Germany's Energy Transition (Energiewende). Hence, the economic surplus of Nordic consumers diminishes while Nordic producers improve their gain under new market conditions. Considering the gird congestion income, the overall system-level benefits (social welfare) will improve in the Nordic region after Germany's Energiewende. However, this gain is not equally distributed among different Nordic countries and across different stakeholders. Furthermore, the Energiewende slightly increases carbon emissions from power and district heating (DH) sectors, and reduces the flexibility in integration of VRE in some Nordic countries like Denmark. The direct interconnection of Norway and Germany through NordLink will contribute to the flexibility in wind integration in other Nordic countries, such as Denmark and Finland. - Highlights: • By an integrated hourly analysis, we model the energy systems of several networked countries and their common electricity market. • The proposed model can inform energy policy on implications of renewable energy integration in an international power market. • Among Nordic countries, Norway gains the highest economic benefits from Germany's energy transition. • Germany's energy transition constrains the flexibility of the Nordic countries in wind integration. • Nord

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

Science.gov (United States)

D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

2006-01-01

Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

The Capacity-Building Stewardship Model: assessment of an agricultural network as a mechanism for improving regional agroecosystem sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison J. Duff

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Working lands have potential to meet agricultural production targets while serving as reservoirs of biological diversity and as sources of ecological services. Yet agricultural policy creates disincentives for this integration of conservation and production goals. While necessary, the development of a policy context that promotes agroecosystem sustainability will take time, and successful implementation will depend on a receptive agricultural audience. As the demands placed on working lands grow, there is a need for regional support networks that build agricultural producers' capacity for land stewardship. We used a social-ecological system framework to illustrate the Healthy Grown Potato Program as an agricultural network case study. Our Capacity-Building Stewardship Model reflects a 20-year experience working in collaboration with potato growers certified under an ecolabel in Wisconsin, USA. The model applies an evolving, modular farm stewardship standard to the entire farm - croplands and noncroplands. The model demonstrates an effective process for facilitating communication and shared learning among program participants, including agricultural producers, university extension specialists, nonprofit conservation partners, and industry representatives. The limitation of the model in practice has been securing funding to support expansion of the program and to ensure that the ecolabel standard is responsive to changes in the social-ecological system. Despite this constraint, the Capacity-Building Stewardship Model reveals an important mechanism for building regional commitment to conservation, with agricultural producers in a leadership role as architects, adopters, and advocates for stewardship behavior. Our experience provides important insight for the application of agri-environment schemes on private lands. The durability of a conservation ethic on working farms is likely to be enhanced when networks engage and support producers in an

Model-based automatic generation of grasping regions

Science.gov (United States)

Bloss, David A.

1993-01-01

The problem of automatically generating stable regions for a robotic end effector on a target object, given a model of the end effector and the object is discussed. In order to generate grasping regions, an initial valid grasp transformation from the end effector to the object is obtained based on form closure requirements, and appropriate rotational and translational symmetries are associated with that transformation in order to construct a valid, continuous grasping region. The main result of this algorithm is a list of specific, valid grasp transformations of the end effector to the target object, and the appropriate combinations of translational and rotational symmetries associated with each specific transformation in order to produce a continuous grasp region.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

Science.gov (United States)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

OpenAIRE

von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard

2016-01-01

Understanding the conflict potential of drought is critical for dealing effectively with the societal implications of climate change. Using new georeferenced ethnicity and conflict data for Asia and Africa since 1989, we present an actor-oriented analysis of growing-season drought and conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Results from naive models common in previous research suggest that drought generally has little impact. However, context-sensitive models accounting for the groups’ leve...

Self-reinforcing process of the reconnection electric field in the electron diffusion region and onset of collisionless magnetic reconnection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu Quanming; Lu San; Huang Can; Wu Mingyu; Wang Shui

2013-01-01

The onset of collisionless magnetic reconnection is considered to be controlled by electron dynamics in the electron diffusion region, where the reconnection electric field is balanced mainly by the off-diagonal electron pressure tensor term. Two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations are employed in this paper to investigate the self-reinforcing process of the reconnection electric field in the electron diffusion region, which is found to grow exponentially. A theoretical model is proposed to demonstrate such a process in the electron diffusion region. In addition the reconnection electric field in the pileup region, which is balanced mainly by the electromotive force term, is also found to grow exponentially and its growth rate is twice that in the electron diffusion region. (paper)

Modeling the cost and benefit of proteome regulation in a growing bacterial cell

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Pooja; Pratim Pandey, Parth; Jain, Sanjay

2018-07-01

Escherichia coli cells differentially regulate the production of metabolic and ribosomal proteins in order to stay close to an optimal growth rate in different environments, and exhibit the bacterial growth laws as a consequence. We present a simple mathematical model of a growing-dividing cell in which an internal dynamical mechanism regulates the allocation of proteomic resources between different protein sectors. The model allows an endogenous determination of the growth rate of the cell as a function of cellular and environmental parameters, and reproduces the bacterial growth laws. We use the model and its variants to study the balance between the cost and benefit of regulation. A cost is incurred because cellular resources are diverted to produce the regulatory apparatus. We show that there is a window of environments or a ‘niche’ in which the unregulated cell has a higher fitness than the regulated cell. Outside this niche there is a large space of constant and time varying environments in which regulation is an advantage. A knowledge of the ‘niche boundaries’ allows one to gain an intuitive understanding of the class of environments in which regulation is an advantage for the organism and which would therefore favour the evolution of regulation. The model allows us to determine the ‘niche boundaries’ as a function of cellular parameters such as the size of the burden of the regulatory apparatus. This class of models may be useful in elucidating various tradeoffs in cells and in making in-silico predictions relevant for synthetic biology.

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and

Fungus-Growing Termites Originated in African Rain Forest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aanen, Duur Kornelis; Eggleton, Paul

2005-01-01

are consumed (cf. [ [1] and [2] ]). Fungus-growing termites are found throughout the Old World tropics, in rain forests and savannas, but are ecologically dominant in savannas [ 3 ]. Here, we reconstruct the ancestral habitat and geographical origin of fungus-growing termites. We used a statistical model...... of habitat switching [ 4 ] repeated over all phylogenetic trees sampled in a Bayesian analysis of molecular data [ 5 ]. Our reconstructions provide strong evidence that termite agriculture originated in African rain forest and that the main radiation leading to the extant genera occurred there. Because...

Climatic change in the Great Plains region of Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizzo, B.

1991-01-01

Implications of global warming to Canada's Great Plains region are discussed, with reference to the climate predictions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model under a two times atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Two sets of climate variables for a geographic area located in the Great Plains are tabulated, for the current (1951-1980) climate normals and under the doubled carbon dioxide scenario. Simple univariate statistics were calculated for the two areas, for the variables of mean annual temperature, mean summer temperature, mean winter temperature, mean July temperature, mean growing season temperature, total annual precipitation, total summer precipitation, total winter precipitation, and total growing season precipitation. Under the GISS scenario, temperature values are on average 4 degree C higher than 1951-1980 normals, while precipitation remains about the same. Locations of ecoclimatic regions are graphed for the whole of Canada. 1 fig., 1 tab

On the use of prior information in modelling metabolic utilization of energy in growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Fernández, José Adalberto

2011-01-01

Construction of models that provide a realistic representation of metabolic utilization of energy in growing animals tend to be over-parameterized because data generated from individual metabolic studies are often sparse. In the Bayesian framework prior information can enter the data analysis......, PD and LD) made on a given pig at a given time followed a multivariate normal distribution. Two different equation systems were adopted from Strathe et al. (2010), generating the expected values in the multivariate normal distribution. Non-informative prior distributions were assigned for all model......, kp and kf, respectively. Utilizing both sets of priors showed that the maintenance component was sensitive to the statement of prior belief and, hence, that the estimate of 0.91 MJkg0.60d1 (95% CI: 0.78; 1.09) should be interpreted with caution. It was shown that boars were superior in depositing...

A model established of a 'Embryo' bubble growing-up some visible bubble in bubble chamber and its primary theory calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Zipiao; Sheng Xiangdong

2006-01-01

A model of a 'embryo' bubble growing up a visible bubble in the bubble chamber is established. Through primary theory calculation it is shown that the 'embryo' bubble is not only absorbing quantity of heat, but also some molecules get into the 'embryo' bubble from its environment. It is explained reasonably that the radius of bubbles in bubble camber is different for the same energies of neutrons and proton. The track of neutron in bubble camber is long and thin, and the track of proton in bubble camber is wide and short. It is explained reasonably that the bubble radius of the incident particles with more charges which there are the same energies will be wider than that of the incident particles with less charges in the track. It is also explained reasonably that there are a little different radius of the bubbles of a track at the some region. It can be predicted theoretically that there should be big bubbles to burst when incident particles enter the bubble chamber at first. The sensitivity and the detective efficiency of bubble camber can be enhanced by choosing appropriate work matter. (authors)

Regional Models for Sediment Toxicity Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This paper investigates the use of empirical models to predict the toxicity of sediment samples within a region to laboratory test organisms based on sediment chemistry. In earlier work, we used a large nationwide database of matching sediment chemistry and marine amphipod sedim...

Growing hierarchical probabilistic self-organizing graphs.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Rubio, Ezequiel; Palomo, Esteban José

2011-07-01

Since the introduction of the growing hierarchical self-organizing map, much work has been done on self-organizing neural models with a dynamic structure. These models allow adjusting the layers of the model to the features of the input dataset. Here we propose a new self-organizing model which is based on a probabilistic mixture of multivariate Gaussian components. The learning rule is derived from the stochastic approximation framework, and a probabilistic criterion is used to control the growth of the model. Moreover, the model is able to adapt to the topology of each layer, so that a hierarchy of dynamic graphs is built. This overcomes the limitations of the self-organizing maps with a fixed topology, and gives rise to a faithful visualization method for high-dimensional data.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da

1983-01-01

A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

Nurturing a growing field: Computers & Geosciences

Science.gov (United States)

Mariethoz, Gregoire; Pebesma, Edzer

2017-10-01

Computational issues are becoming increasingly critical for virtually all fields of geoscience. This includes the development of improved algorithms and models, strategies for implementing high-performance computing, or the management and visualization of the large datasets provided by an ever-growing number of environmental sensors. Such issues are central to scientific fields as diverse as geological modeling, Earth observation, geophysics or climatology, to name just a few. Related computational advances, across a range of geoscience disciplines, are the core focus of Computers & Geosciences, which is thus a truly multidisciplinary journal.

A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

2011-07-01

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

On Austrian regional economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijman, W.J.M.; Leen, A.R.

2004-01-01

The aim of this research note is two-fold, firstly, to clarify the growing interaction between regional science and Austrian economics and their awareness of each other. We elucidate the Austrian methodology, called praxeology, which is especially misunderstood in regional science. Secondly, we

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2001-03-01

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F.; Kissling, E.

2011-01-01

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

Local and regional minimum 1D models for earthquake location and data quality assessment in complex tectonic regions: application to Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Husen, S.; Clinton, J. F. [Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland); Kissling, E. [Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zuerich, Zuerich (Switzerland)

2011-10-15

One-dimensional (1D) velocity models are still widely used for computing earthquake locations at seismological centers or in regions where three-dimensional (3D) velocity models are not available due to the lack of data of sufficiently high quality. The concept of the minimum 1D model with appropriate station corrections provides a framework to compute initial hypocenter locations and seismic velocities for local earthquake tomography. Since a minimum 1D model represents a solution to the coupled hypocenter-velocity problem it also represents a suitable velocity model for earthquake location and data quality assessment, such as evaluating the consistency in assigning pre-defined weighting classes and average picking error. Nevertheless, the use of a simple 1D velocity structure in combination with station delays raises the question of how appropriate the minimum 1D model concept is when applied to complex tectonic regions with significant three-dimensional (3D) variations in seismic velocities. In this study we compute one regional minimum 1D model and three local minimum 1D models for selected subregions of the Swiss Alpine region, which exhibits a strongly varying Moho topography. We compare the regional and local minimum 1D models in terms of earthquake locations and data quality assessment to measure their performance. Our results show that the local minimum 1D models provide more realistic hypocenter locations and better data fits than a single model for the Alpine region. We attribute this to the fact that in a local minimum 1D model local and regional effects of the velocity structure can be better separated. Consequently, in tectonically complex regions, minimum 1D models should be computed in sub-regions defined by similar structure, if they are used for earthquake location and data quality assessment. (authors)

"Special Issue": Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model

Science.gov (United States)

Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

2016-01-01

This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

Science.gov (United States)

Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

1998-01-01

The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

Optical tomography in the presence of void regions

Science.gov (United States)

Dehghani; Arridge; Schweiger; Delpy

2000-09-01

There is a growing interest in the use of near-infrared spectroscopy for the noninvasive determination of the oxygenation level within biological tissue. Stemming from this application, there has been further research in the use of this technique for obtaining tomographic images of the neonatal head, with the view of determining the levels of oxygenated and deoxygenated blood within the brain. Owing to computational complexity, methods used for numerical modeling of photon transfer within tissue have usually been limited to the diffusion approximation of the Boltzmann transport equation. The diffusion approximation, however, is not valid in regions of low scatter, such as the cerebrospinal fluid. Methods have been proposed for dealing with nonscattering regions within diffusing materials through the use of a radiosity-diffusion model. Currently, this new model assumes prior knowledge of the void region location; therefore it is instructive to examine the errors introduced in applying a simple diffusion-based reconstruction scheme in cases in which there exists a nonscattering region. We present reconstructed images of objects that contain a nonscattering region within a diffusive material. Here the forward data is calculated with the radiosity-diffusion model, and the inverse problem is solved with either the radiosity-diffusion model or the diffusion-only model. The reconstructed images show that even in the presence of only a thin nonscattering layer, a diffusion-only reconstruction will fail. When a radiosity-diffusion model is used for image reconstruction, together with a priori information about the position of the nonscattering region, the quality of the reconstructed image is considerably improved. The accuracy of the reconstructed images depends largely on the position of the anomaly with respect to the nonscattering region as well as the thickness of the nonscattering region.

Capturing dynamic processes of change in GROW mutual help groups for mental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Finn, Lizzie D; Bishop, Brian J; Sparrow, Neville

2009-12-01

The need for a model that can portray dynamic processes of change in mutual help groups for mental health (MHGMHs) is emphasized. A dynamic process model has the potential to capture a more comprehensive understanding of how MHGMHs may assist their members. An investigation into GROW, a mutual help organization for mental health, employed ethnographic, phenomenological and collaborative research methods. The study examined how GROW impacts on psychological well being. Study outcomes aligned with the social ecological paradigm (Maton in Understanding the self-help organization: frameworks and findings. Sage, Thousand Oaks 1994) indicating multifactorial processes of change at and across three levels of analysis: group level, GROW program/community level and individual level. Outcome themes related to life skills acquisition and a change in self-perception in terms of belonging within community and an increased sense of personal value. The GROW findings are used to assist development of a dynamic multi-dimensional process model to explain how MHGMHs may promote positive change.

A nonparametric random coefficient approach for life expectancy growth using a hierarchical mixture likelihood model with application to regional data from North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany).

Science.gov (United States)

Böhning, Dankmar; Karasek, Sarah; Terschüren, Claudia; Annuß, Rolf; Fehr, Rainer

2013-03-09

Life expectancy is of increasing prime interest for a variety of reasons. In many countries, life expectancy is growing linearly, without any indication of reaching a limit. The state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in Germany with its 54 districts is considered here where the above mentioned growth in life expectancy is occurring as well. However, there is also empirical evidence that life expectancy is not growing linearly at the same level for different regions. To explore this situation further a likelihood-based cluster analysis is suggested and performed. The modelling uses a nonparametric mixture approach for the latent random effect. Maximum likelihood estimates are determined by means of the EM algorithm and the number of components in the mixture model are found on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. Regions are classified into the mixture components (clusters) using the maximum posterior allocation rule. For the data analyzed here, 7 components are found with a spatial concentration of lower life expectancy levels in a centre of NRW, formerly an enormous conglomerate of heavy industry, still the most densely populated area with Gelsenkirchen having the lowest level of life expectancy growth for both genders. The paper offers some explanations for this fact including demographic and socio-economic sources. This case study shows that life expectancy growth is widely linear, but it might occur on different levels.

GrowYourIC: A Step Toward a Coherent Model of the Earth's Inner Core Seismic Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Lasbleis, Marine; Waszek, Lauren; Day, Elizabeth A.

2017-11-01

A complex inner core structure has been well established from seismic studies, showing radial and lateral heterogeneities at various length scales. Yet no geodynamic model is able to explain all the features observed. One of the main limits for this is the lack of tools to compare seismic observations and numerical models successfully. We use here a new Python tool called GrowYourIC to compare models of inner core structure. We calculate properties of geodynamic models of the inner core along seismic raypaths, for random or user-specified data sets. We test kinematic models which simulate fast lateral translation, superrotation, and differential growth. We explore first the influence on a real inner core data set, which has a sparse coverage of the inner core boundary. Such a data set is however able to successfully constrain the hemispherical boundaries due to a good sampling of latitudes. Combining translation and rotation could explain some of the features of the boundaries separating the inner core hemispheres. The depth shift of the boundaries, observed by some authors, seems unlikely to be modeled by a fast translation but could be produced by slow translation associated with superrotation.

Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

The Commercial Profitability of Growing Hybrid Eucalyptus Clones in The Coast Province, Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balozi Bekuta Kirongo

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the current high demand for timber, fuelwood, and building poles and the realization that tree growing may pay dividends in the short and long term, many farmers are planting trees on their farms. Farmers are increasingly planting eucalyptus partly due to the fast growth rates of the hybrid clones as well as the opportunity to earn money within a short time. In this paper we report on the profitability of growing eucalyptus hybrid clones in the coastal region, Kenya. Tree growth and cost data was sourced from farmers in Malindi, Kilifi, and Msambweni. Market information was sourced from hardwares in North and South Coast while tree growth models were used to provide average tree sizes at various ages. Results showed that a farmer could make a net income of upto Kshs.500,000.00 (USD6,250 in 5 years. Farmers in the South Coast (Kwale and Msambweni spent more on transport than their counterparts in the North Coast (near Gede-KEFRI. This, added to the fact that trees in the South Coast (Msambweni grew less compared to those in North Coast meant that farmers in the south made less profits.

Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indrajeet Chaubey

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

AUTOMATIC LUNG NODULE SEGMENTATION USING AUTOSEED REGION GROWING WITH MORPHOLOGICAL MASKING (ARGMM AND FEATURE EX-TRACTION THROUGH COMPLETE LOCAL BINARY PATTERN AND MICROSCOPIC INFORMATION PATTERN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senthil Kumar

2015-04-01

Full Text Available An efficient Autoseed Region Growing with Morphological Masking(ARGMM is imple-mented in this paper on the Lung CT Slice to segment the 'Lung Nodules',which may be the potential indicator for the Lung Cancer. The segmentation of lung nodules car-ried out in this paper through Multi-Thresholding, ARGMM and Level Set Evolution. ARGMM takes twice the time compared to Level Set, but still the number of suspected segmented nodules are doubled, which make sure that no potential cancerous nodules go unnoticed at the earlier stages of diagnosis. It is very important not to panic the patient by finding the presence of nodules from Lung CT scan. Only 40 percent of nod-ules can be cancerous. Hence, in this paper an efficient Shape and Texture analysis is computed to quantitatively describe the segmented lung nodules. The Frequency spectrum of the lung nodules is developed and its frequency domain features are com-puted. The Complete Local binary pattern of lung nodules is computed in this paper by constructing the combine histogram of Sign and Magnitude Local Binary Patterns. Lo-cal Configuration Pattern is also determined in this work for lung nodules to numeri-cally model the microscopic information of nodules pattern.

Gastric protein hydrolysis of raw and roasted almonds in the growing pig.

Science.gov (United States)

Bornhorst, Gail M; Drechsler, Krista C; Montoya, Carlos A; Rutherfurd, Shane M; Moughan, Paul J; Singh, R Paul

2016-11-15

Gastric protein hydrolysis may influence gastric emptying rate and subsequent protein digestibility in the small intestine. This study examined the gastric hydrolysis of dietary protein from raw and roasted almonds in the growing pig as a model for the adult human. The gastric hydrolysis of almond proteins was quantified by performing tricine-sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and subsequent image analysis. There was an interaction between digestion time, stomach region, and almond type for gastric protein hydrolysis (palmonds (compared to roasted almonds), hypothesized to be related to structural changes in almond proteins during roasting. Greater gastric protein hydrolysis was observed in the distal stomach (compared to the proximal stomach), likely related to the lower pH in the distal stomach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Science.gov (United States)

Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

2015-03-01

Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

Income Tax Revenue as an Indicator of Regional Development in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Ijaz Hussain; Sumbal Rana

2009-01-01

The objective of this paper is to highlight the use of income tax revenue as an indicator of regional development in Pakistan. Initially, we identify a dramatic shift in income tax revenue trends at the provincial level for the period 1992/93 to 2005/06. We develop a simple model of income tax revenue and estimate the relationship between growth of income tax revenue and gross regional product (GRP). Based on the estimated relationship, Punjab appears to have been the fastest growing province...

Impacts of regional land-grab on regional hydroclimate in southeastern Africa via modeling and remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are significant enough to induce changes in the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and its interaction with the atmosphere above. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models or Earth System Models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from timber harvesting due to a land grab boom in Mozambique. We also focus more narrowly at quantifying regional impacts on Gorongosa National Park, a nationally important economic and biodiversity resource in southeastern Africa. After nationalizing all land in 1975 after Mozambique gained independence, complex social processes, including an extended low intensity conflict civil war and economic hardships, led to an escalation of land use rights grants to foreign governments. Between 2004 and 2009, large tracts of land were requested for timber. Here we use existing tree cover loss datasets to more accurately represent land cover within a regional weather model. LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is updated at three instances between 2001 and 2014 using a tree cover loss dataset. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the land grab. Results suggest that the land grab has impacted microclimate parameters in a significant way via direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions

Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.

2017-12-01

Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

Updating a synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic virgin olive oil adulteration calibration to a new geographical region.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, Matthew Ross; Ottaway, Joshua; Kalivas, John H; Georgiou, Constantinos A; Mousdis, George A

2011-02-23

Detecting and quantifying extra virgin olive adulteration is of great importance to the olive oil industry. Many spectroscopic methods in conjunction with multivariate analysis have been used to solve these issues. However, successes to date are limited as calibration models are built to a specific set of geographical regions, growing seasons, cultivars, and oil extraction methods (the composite primary condition). Samples from new geographical regions, growing seasons, etc. (secondary conditions) are not always correctly predicted by the primary model due to different olive oil and/or adulterant compositions stemming from secondary conditions not matching the primary conditions. Three Tikhonov regularization (TR) variants are used in this paper to allow adulterant (sunflower oil) concentration predictions in samples from geographical regions not part of the original primary calibration domain. Of the three TR variants, ridge regression with an additional 2-norm penalty provides the smallest validation sample prediction errors. Although the paper reports on using TR for model updating to predict adulterant oil concentration, the methods should also be applicable to updating models distinguishing adulterated samples from pure extra virgin olive oil. Additionally, the approaches are general and can be used with other spectroscopic methods and adulterants as well as with other agriculture products.

Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. J. Vega-Nieva

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS active fire hotspots—expressed as a Fire Hotspot Density index (FHD—from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (AcFDI, for 17 main vegetation types and regions in Mexico, for the period 2011–2015. The AcFDI was calculated by applying vegetation-specific thresholds for fire occurrence to a satellite-based fuel dryness index (FDI, which was developed after the structure of the Fire Potential Index (FPI. Linear and non-linear models were tested for the prediction of FHD from FDI and AcFDI. Non-linear quantile regression models gave the best results for predicting FHD using AcFDI, together with auto-regression from previously observed hotspot density values. The predictions of 10-day observed FHD values were reasonably good with R2 values of 0.5 to 0.7 suggesting the potential to be used as an operational tool for predicting the expected number of fire hotspots by vegetation type and region in Mexico. The presented modeling strategy could be replicated for any fire danger index in any region, based on information from MODIS or other remote sensors.

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Science.gov (United States)

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

Inequality in Burkina Faso-to what extent do household, community and regional factors matter?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Gräb (Johannes); M. Grimm (Michael)

2011-01-01

textabstractEmpirical evidence suggests that regional disparities in income are often very wide, that these disparities do not necessarily disappear as economies grow and that these disparities are themselves a major driver of growth. We use a novel approach based on multilevel modelling to

Hydrological modeling in semi-arid region using HEC-HMS model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of this study is to simulate rainfall-runoff in the semi-arid region of ... the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the SCS curve number is ... SCS unit hydrograph method have been applied to simulate the runoff rate.

Actin filaments growing against an elastic membrane: Effect of membrane tension

Science.gov (United States)

Sadhu, Raj Kumar; Chatterjee, Sakuntala

2018-03-01

We study the force generation by a set of parallel actin filaments growing against an elastic membrane. The elastic membrane tries to stay flat and any deformation from this flat state, either caused by thermal fluctuations or due to protrusive polymerization force exerted by the filaments, costs energy. We study two lattice models to describe the membrane dynamics. In one case, the energy cost is assumed to be proportional to the absolute magnitude of the height gradient (gradient model) and in the other case it is proportional to the square of the height gradient (Gaussian model). For the gradient model we find that the membrane velocity is a nonmonotonic function of the elastic constant μ and reaches a peak at μ =μ* . For μ membrane energy keeps increasing with time. For the Gaussian model, the system always reaches a steady state and the membrane velocity decreases monotonically with the elastic constant ν for all nonzero values of ν . Multiple filaments give rise to protrusions at different regions of the membrane and the elasticity of the membrane induces an effective attraction between the two protrusions in the Gaussian model which causes the protrusions to merge and a single wide protrusion is present in the system. In both the models, the relative time scale between the membrane and filament dynamics plays an important role in deciding whether the shape of elasticity-velocity curve is concave or convex. Our numerical simulations agree reasonably well with our analytical calculations.

The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

2012-03-15

Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

KAUST Repository

Kalenderski, Stoitchko

2011-03-17

We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

FRUIT FLIES AND THEIR PARASITOIDS IN THE FRUIT GROWING REGION OF LIVRAMENTO DE NOSSA SENHORA, BAHIA, WITH RECORDS OF UNPRECEDENTED INTERACTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUZANY AGUIAR LEITE

2017-10-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Several fruit fly species (Diptera: Tephritidae and Lonchaeidae assume the status of primary pests in fruit trees grown in Brazil, causing direct production losses. The aims of the study were to know aspects of diversity of fruit flies and their parasitoids in the fruit growing region of Livramento de Nossa Senhora, Bahia. Fruit samples were collected from 19 plant species during November/2011 and June/2014. Infestation rates were calculated in pupae.kg-1 of fruit and pupae.fruit-1. The results indicate the occurrence of Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann and Neosilba pendula (Bezzi. Plant species Anacardium occidentale, Averrhoa carambola, Carica papaya, Eugenia uniflora, Malpighia emarginata, Mangifera indica var. “Haden”, “Rosa” and “Tommy Atkins”, Opuntia ficus indica, Pereskia bahiensis, Psidium guajava, Spondias lutea, Spondias purpurea and Spondias tuberosa are hosts of fruit flies in the region. Unprecedented bitrophic relationships between P. bahiensis and C. capitata and Anastrepha sp. and between Opuntia ficus indica and C. capitata and A. obliqua were recorded. Unprecedented tritrophic relationship for the state of Bahia Averrhoa carambola and C. capitata and parasitoid of the Pteromalidae Family were also recorded. Tritrophic associations between M. indica var. “Tommy Atkins” and S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Doryctobracon areolatus; and between S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Utetes anastrephae were observed.

Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

Science.gov (United States)

Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

2017-07-01

We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosana Rosseto de Oliveira

Full Text Available Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil.This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR.A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to <37 weeks, which rose from 7.0% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92, inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15, Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67 and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36, low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55 and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74 were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90, as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase. Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year and low birth weight (-1.43% decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year.Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care

The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Rosana Rosseto de; Melo, Emiliana Cristina; Falavina, Larissa Pereira; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas

2015-01-01

Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil. This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR). A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93)-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92), inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15), Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67) and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36), low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55) and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74) were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90), as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase). Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year) and low birth weight (-1.43%) decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year). Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care during the prenatal period towards

Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tesfaye, M

2011-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

Modelling Cr depletion under a growing Cr2O3 layer on austenitic stainless steel: the influence of grain boundary diffusion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansson, Anette Nørgaard; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Dahl, Kristian Vinter

2009-01-01

according to a parabolic rate law as a consequence of rate limiting diffusion of Cr cations through the oxide layer; the retraction of the oxide/alloy interface associated with the removal of Cr atoms from the substrate is included in the calculations. Numerically, the movement of the oxide/alloy interface......The oxidation behaviour of austenitic stainless steels in the temperature range 723–1173K is strongly influenced by the grain size of the oxidizing alloy. In this work the evolution of the concentration profiles of Cr, Ni and Fe in the substrate below a growing Cr2O3 layer is simulated...... with a Fisher-type numerical model, which takes both volume and grain boundary diffusion into consideration. The model is based on a two-dimensional control volume-based solution of Fick’s 2nd law for multicomponent diffusion and includes crossterm diffusion coefficients. The oxide layer is assumed to grow...

Electric field effects in the night-side subauroral F region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deminov, M.G.; Shubin, V.N.

1988-01-01

Theoretical analysis of peculiarities of subauroral ionosphere F-region electron concentration due to magnetospheric substorm electric fields is presented. For this purpose a simple model of electric field was used in which longitudinal current effect on subauroral ionosphere conducting layer is taken into account . This model represents the band of plasma fast western drift near the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval in the night-time sector with plasma leaking into this band both from medium latitudes and from the auroral oval region. In the morning sector the plasma drift rate is sufficiently lower and is oriented mainly to the east. It is shown that in the band of fast western plasma drift F-layer maximum altitude h m grows while N m layer concentration in the maximum drops which is mainly due to the increase of temperature and 0 + ion recombination coefficient. In the morning sector h m practically does not change and N m grows which leads to formation of a step-like structure of N m latitude distribution and to a shift of the main ionospheric gap minimum the equator at the rate of about 80 m/s during the first hours of substorm progress

Modeling best practices in chronic disease management: the Arthritis Program at Southlake Regional Health Centre.

Science.gov (United States)

Bain, Lorna; Mierdel, Sandra; Thorne, Carter

2012-01-01

Researchers, hospital administrators and governments are striving to define competencies in interprofessional care and education, as well as to identify effective models in chronic disease management. For more than 25 years The Arthritis Program (TAP) at Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket, Ontario, has actively practiced within these two interrelated priorities, which are now at the top of the healthcare agenda in Ontario and Canada. The approximately 135 different rheumatic conditions are the primary cause of long-term disability in Canada, affecting those from youth to the senior years, with an economic burden estimated at $4.4 billion (CAD$) annually, and growing. For the benefit of healthcare managers and their clients with chronic conditions, this article discusses TAP's history and demonstrable success, predicated on an educational model of patient self-management and self-efficacy. Also outlined are TAP's contributions in supporting evidence-based best practices in interprofessional collaboration and chronic disease management; approaches that are arguably understudied and under-practiced. Next steps for TAP include a larger role in empirical research in chronic-disease management and integration of a formal training program to benefit health professionals launching or expanding their interprofessional programs using TAP as the dynamic clinical example.

Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulze, Jule; Frank, Karin; Priess, Joerg A; Meyer, Markus A

2016-01-01

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This

Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

2015-01-09

During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

Rice in cropping systems - Modelling transitions between flooded and non-flooded soil environments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gaydon, D.S.; Probert, M.E.; Buresh, R.J.; Meinke, H.B.; Suriadi, A.; Dobermann, A.; Bouman, B.A.M.; Timsina, J.

2012-01-01

Water shortages in many rice-growing regions, combined with growing global imperatives to increase food production, are driving research into increased water use efficiency and modified agricultural practices in rice-based cropping systems. Well-tested cropping systems models that capture

Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)

2012-03-15

Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.

1999-01-01

This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

THE MODELING OF DRUG ADDICTION PREVALENCE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.P. Sirotin

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

Model Development to Predict Phenological scale of Table Grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe using Growing Degree Days

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Verdugo-Vásquez

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Phenological models have been made mainly for winegrape cultivars, despite the economic importance of table grapes. The aim of this work was to develop and validate models for predicting phenological scales of table grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe grown under semi-arid conditions. Measurements of phenology were carried out weekly from budburst to harvest during four growing seasons (2009-2013. Phenology models were developed using the Mitscherlich monomolecular equation where the dependent and independent variables were the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP scale modified by Coombe and the growing degree days (GDD, respectively. Results indicated that there were strong non-linear correlations between the ELP scale and GDD for the four cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R2 ranging between 0.97-0.99. Also, validation indicated that the models were able to predict ELP scale with a root mean square (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE ranging between 2.1-2.4 and 1.35-1.69, respectively. The prediction variability (expressed in days was between 4.4-19.4 days, obtaining the best results for the flowering period. This study suggested that the phenological models based on GDD could be useful planning tools for farming, especially from budburst to veraison of table grape cultivars.

Arctide2017, a high-resolution regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cancet, M.; Andersen, O. B.; Lyard, F.

2018-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is a challenging region for tidal modelling. The accuracy of the global tidal models decreases by several centimeters in the Polar Regions, which has a large impact on the quality of the satellite altimeter sea surface heights and the altimetry-derived products. NOVELTIS, DTU Space...... and LEGOS have developed Arctide2017, a regional, high-resolution tidal atlas in the Arctic Ocean, in the framework of an extension of the CryoSat Plus for Ocean (CP4O) ESA STSE (Support to Science Element) project. In particular, this atlas benefits from the assimilation of the most complete satellite...... assimilation and validation. This paper presents the implementation methodology and the performance of this new regional tidal model in the Arctic Ocean, compared to the existing global and regional tidal models....

Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. W. Ter Maat

2010-08-01

Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO₂ are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

Changing water availability during the African maize-growing season, 1979–2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estes, Lyndon D; Chaney, Nathaniel W; Herrera-Estrada, Julio; Sheffield, Justin; Caylor, Kelly K; Wood, Eric F

2014-01-01

Understanding how global change is impacting African agriculture requires a full physical accounting of water supply and demand, but accurate, gridded data on key drivers (e.g., humidity) are generally unavailable. We used a new bias-corrected meteorological dataset to analyze changes in precipitation (supply), potential evapotranspiration (E p , demand), and water availability (expressed as the ratio P/E p ) in 20 countries (focusing on their maize-growing regions and seasons), between 1979 and 2010, and the factors driving changes in E p . Maize-growing areas in Southern Africa, particularly South Africa, benefitted from increased water availability due in large part to demand declines driven primarily by declining net radiation, increasing vapor pressure, and falling temperatures (with no effect from changing windspeed), with smaller increases in supply. Sahelian zone countries in West Africa, as well as Ethiopia in East Africa, had strong increases in availability driven primarily by rainfall rebounding from the long-term Sahelian droughts, with little change or small reductions in demand. However, intra-seasonal supply variability generally increased in West and East Africa. Across all three regions, declining net radiation contributed downwards pressure on demand, generally over-riding upwards pressure caused by increasing temperatures, the regional effects of which were largest in East Africa. A small number of countries, mostly in or near East Africa (Tanzania and Malawi) experienced declines in water availability primarily due to decreased rainfall, but exacerbated by increasing demand. Much of the reduced water availability in East Africa occurred during the more sensitive middle part of the maize-growing season, suggesting negative consequences for maize production. (paper)

GIS modelling of solar potential in Toplica region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valjarević Aleksandar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we investigated possible potential solar area on Toplica region based on GIS (Geographical Information system and using a special kriging method with the help of open sources GIS software Quantum GIS. This kriging method is very special to vectorized and calculated the small area. The statistical approach calculated between datasets of three meteorological stations (Niš, Prokuplje, Kuršumlija. Data using of insolation from that meteorological stations from the period of (1953-2013 is useful for a solution to calculating solar potential. The also used parameter is hypsometry of relief of the whole area of Toplica region. Area of Toplica region is 2.231 km2 with a population of 90600 citizens. Divided into fourth municipalities (Prokuplje, Žitoradja, Black, Kuršumlija. The GIS modeling indicates that ideal areas for solar development are located the potential places in Toplica region. Only 13.6 km2 of the head model scores that were in the 90-100% range. However, given the statewide high insolation values with minimal variance, solar projects may be better suited for small-scale residential or commercial projects.

A modified Seeded Region Growing algorithm for vessel segmentation in breast MRI images for investigating the nature of potential lesions

Science.gov (United States)

Glotsos, D.; Vassiou, K.; Kostopoulos, S.; Lavdas, El; Kalatzis, I.; Asvestas, P.; Arvanitis, D. L.; Fezoulidis, I. V.; Cavouras, D.

2014-03-01

The role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) as an alternative protocol for screening of breast cancer has been intensively investigated during the past decade. Preliminary research results have indicated that gadolinium-agent administrative MRI scans may reveal the nature of breast lesions by analyzing the contrast-agent's uptake time. In this study, we attempt to deduce the same conclusion, however, from a different perspective by investigating, using image processing, the vascular network of the breast at two different time intervals following the administration of gadolinium. Twenty cases obtained from a 3.0-T MRI system (SIGNA HDx; GE Healthcare) were included in the study. A new modification of the Seeded Region Growing (SRG) algorithm was used to segment vessels from surrounding background. Delineated vessels were investigated by means of their topology, morphology and texture. Results have shown that it is possible to estimate the nature of the lesions with approximately 94.4% accuracy, thus, it may be claimed that the breast vascular network does encodes useful, patterned, information, which can be used for characterizing breast lesions.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

Continuous dynamic assimilation of the inner region data in hydrodynamics modelling: optimization approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. I. Pisnitchenko

2008-11-01

Full Text Available In meteorological and oceanological studies the classical approach for finding the numerical solution of the regional model consists in formulating and solving a Cauchy-Dirichlet problem. The boundary conditions are obtained by linear interpolation of coarse-grid data provided by a global model. Errors in boundary conditions due to interpolation may cause large deviations from the correct regional solution. The methods developed to reduce these errors deal with continuous dynamic assimilation of known global data available inside the regional domain. One of the approaches of this assimilation procedure performs a nudging of large-scale components of regional model solution to large-scale global data components by introducing relaxation forcing terms into the regional model equations. As a result, the obtained solution is not a valid numerical solution to the original regional model. Another approach is the use a four-dimensional variational data assimilation procedure which is free from the above-mentioned shortcoming. In this work we formulate the joint problem of finding the regional model solution and data assimilation as a PDE-constrained optimization problem. Three simple model examples (ODE Burgers equation, Rossby-Oboukhov equation, Korteweg-de Vries equation are considered in this paper. Numerical experiments indicate that the optimization approach can significantly improve the precision of the regional solution.

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

Entrepreneurship Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Finger Lakes Regional Education Center for Economic Development, Mount Morris, NY.

This guide describes seven model programs that were developed by the Finger Lakes Regional Center for Economic Development (New York) to meet the training needs of female and minority entrepreneurs to help their businesses survive and grow and to assist disabled and dislocated workers and youth in beginning small businesses. The first three models…

MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borma Afrodita

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

CFD and PIV analysis of hemodynamics in a growing intracranial aneurysm.

Science.gov (United States)

Raschi, Marcelo; Mut, Fernando; Byrne, Greg; Putman, Christopher M; Tateshima, Satoshi; Viñuela, Fernando; Tanoue, Tetsuya; Tanishita, Kazuo; Cebral, Juan R

2012-02-01

Hemodynamics is thought to be a fundamental factor in the formation, progression, and rupture of cerebral aneurysms. Understanding these mechanisms is important to improve their rupture risk assessment and treatment. In this study, we analyze the blood flow field in a growing cerebral aneurysm using experimental particle image velocimetry (PIV) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. Patient-specific models were constructed from longitudinal 3D computed tomography angiography images acquired at 1-y intervals. Physical silicone models were constructed from the computed tomography angiography images using rapid prototyping techniques, and pulsatile flow fields were measured with PIV. Corresponding CFD models were created and run under matching flow conditions. Both flow fields were aligned, interpolated, and compared qualitatively by inspection and quantitatively by defining similarity measures between the PIV and CFD vector fields. Results showed that both flow fields were in good agreement. Specifically, both techniques provided consistent representations of the main intra-aneurysmal flow structures and their change during the geometric evolution of the aneurysm. Despite differences observed mainly in the near wall region, and the inherent limitations of each technique, the information derived is consistent and can be used to study the role of hemodynamics in the natural history of intracranial aneurysms.

Estimating the Sensitivity of CLM-Crop to Plant Date and Growing Season Length

Science.gov (United States)

Drewniak, B. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2012-12-01

The Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), is designed to estimate the land surface response to climate through simulated vegetation phenology and soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Since human influences play a significant role shaping the land surface, the vegetation has been expanded to include agriculture (CLM-Crop) for three crop types: corn, soybean, and spring wheat. CLM-Crop parameters, which define crop phenology, are optimized against AmeriFlux observations of gross primary productivity, net ecosystem exchange, and stored biomass and carbon, for two sites in the U.S. growing corn and soybean. However, there is uncertainty in the measurements and using a small subset of data to determine model parameters makes validation difficult. In order to account for the differences in plant behavior across climate zones, an input dataset is used to define the planting dates and the length of the growing season. In order to improve model performance, and to understand the impacts of uncertainty from the input data, we evaluate the sensitivity of crop productivity and production against planting date and the length of the growing season. First, CLM-Crop is modified to establish plant date based on temperature trends for the previous 10-day period, constrained against the range of observed planting dates. This new climate-based model is compared with the standard fixed plant dates to determine how sensitive the model is to when seeding occurs, and how comparable the climate calculated plant dates are to the fixed dates. Next, the length of the growing season will be revised to account for an alternative climate. Finally, both the climate-based planting and new growth season will be simulated together. Results of the different model runs will be compared to the standard model and to observations to determine the importance of planting date and growing season length on crop productivity and yield.

From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

OpenAIRE

Matytsin, Mikhail; Moorty, Lalita; Richter, Kaspar

2015-01-01

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in...

Modified methods for growing 3-D skin equivalents: an update.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Rebecca; Ambler, Carrie A

2014-01-01

Artificial epidermis can be reconstituted in vitro by seeding primary epidermal cells (keratinocytes) onto a supportive substrate and then growing the developing skin equivalent at the air-liquid interface. In vitro skin models are widely used to study skin biology and for industrial drug and cosmetic testing. Here, we describe updated methods for growing 3-dimensional skin equivalents using de-vitalized, de-epidermalized dermis (DED) substrates including methods for DED substrate preparation, cell seeding, growth conditions, and fixation procedures.

Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Peter; Antal, Tibor

2015-01-01

We present an explicit solution to a classic model of cell-population growth introduced by Luria and Delbrück (1943 Genetics 28 491-511) 70 years ago to study the emergence of mutations in bacterial populations. In this model a wild-type population is assumed to grow exponentially in a deterministic fashion. Proportional to the wild-type population size, mutants arrive randomly and initiate new sub-populations of mutants that grow stochastically according to a supercritical birth and death process. We give an exact expression for the generating function of the total number of mutants at a given wild-type population size. We present a simple expression for the probability of finding no mutants, and a recursion formula for the probability of finding a given number of mutants. In the ‘large population-small mutation’ limit we recover recent results of Kessler and Levine (2014 J. Stat. Phys. doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1143-3) for a fully stochastic version of the process.

Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

1979-06-01

A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

2004-01-01

For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

Regional/Urban Air Quality Modeling Assessment over China Using the Models-3/CMAQ System

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, J. S.; Jang, C. C.; Streets, D. G.; Li, Z.; Wang, L.; Zhang, Q.; Woo, J.; Wang, B.

2004-12-01

China is the world's most populous country with a fast growing economy that surges in energy comsumption. It has become the second largest energy consumer after the United States although the per capita level is much lower than those found in developed or developing countries. Air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai and has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze. The Models-3/CMAQ modeling application that has been conducted to simulate multi-pollutants in China is presented. The modeling domains cover East Asia (36-kmx36-km) including Japan, South Korea, Korea DPR, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Mongolia, East China (12-kmx12-km) and Beijing/Tianjing, Shanghai (4-kmx4-km). For this study, the Asian emission inventory based on the emission estimates of the year 2000 that supported the NASA TRACE-P program is used. However, the TRACE-P emission inventory was developed for a different purpose such as global modeling. TRACE-P emission inventory may not be practical in urban area. There is no China national emission inventory available. Therefore, TRACE-P emission inventory is used on the East Asia and East China domains. The 8 districts of Beijing and Shanghai local emissions inventory are used to replace TRACE-P in 4-km domains. The meteorological data for the Models-3/CMAQ run are extracted from MM5. The model simulation is performed during the period January 1-20 and July 1-20, 2001 that presented the winter and summer time for China areas. The preliminary model results are shown O3 concentrations are in the range of 80 -120 ppb in the urban area. Lower urban O3 concentrations are shown in Beijing areas, possibly due to underestimation of urban man-made VOC emissions in the TRACE-P inventory and local inventory. High PM2.5 (70ug/m3 in summer and 150ug/m3 in winter) were simulated over metropolitan & downwind areas with significant secondary constituents. More comprehensive

Are foot posture and functional health different in children with growing pains?

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Angela Margaret; Scutter, Sheila Doreen

2007-12-01

The aim of the present paper was to investigate and compare findings of foot posture and functional health between groups of children aged 4-6 years with and without leg pain (described as "growing pains"). The null hypothesis: that there is no difference in measures of either foot posture or functional health between groups of children with and without leg pain. A stratified random sample of children was obtained. The children were identified with and without leg pain using a validated questionnaire for parents. The examiner was blind to the children's pain status. The schools and child care centers were from each geographical quadrant of metropolitan Adelaide and a northern rural region of South Australia. One hundred and eighty children (94 boys, 86 girls) entered and completed the study. Children whose parents returned a completed questionnaire and consent form were entered into the study. All participants were assessed by the one examiner. The foot posture measures used were those found to be most reliable in previous studies and for which the intra-rater reliability of the examiner was ascertained. Initial analysis of foot posture measures between the leg pain and no leg pains groups indicated a statistically significant result for the measure of navicular height, but only on the left side (P = 0.033). Logistic regression modeling showed that navicular height (left foot only) was positively yet weakly related to growing pains (odds ratio, 1.072; 95% confidence interval: 0.991-1.160) and the effect was not significant (P = 0.08). Measures of functional health returned many statistically significant yet weakly correlated relationships. The null hypothesis of the present study was supported in terms of clinical significance. While the foot posture measure of navicular height on the left foot was statistically significant it was not predictive for growing pains nor clinically significant as a measure between groups. The present study does not support the

Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, Scott J.; Donato, David I.; Claggett, Peter

2010-01-01

This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

Regional LLRW processing alternatives applying the DOE REGINALT systems analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beers, G.H.

1987-01-01

The DOE Low-Level Waste Management Program has developed a computer-based decision support system of models that may be used by nonprogrammers to evaluate a comprehensive approach to commercial low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) management. REGINALT (Regional Waste Management Alternatives Analysis Model) implementation will be described as the model is applied to hypothetical regional compact for the purpose of examining the technical and economic potential of two waste processing alternatives. Using waste from a typical regional compact, two specific regional waste processing centers are compared for feasibility. Example 1 assumes that a regional supercompaction facility is being developed for the region. Example 2 assumes that a regional facility with both supercompaction and incineration is specified. Both examples include identical disposal facilities, except that capacity may differ due to variation in volume reduction achieved. The two examples are compared with regard to volume reduction achieved, estimated occupational exposure for the processing facilities, and life cycle costs per generated unit waste. A base case also illustrates current disposal practices. The results of the comparisons evaluated, and other steps, if necessary, for additional decision support are identified

Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Respiration to Nitrogen Fertilization: Varying Effects between Growing and Non-Growing Seasons

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qingfang; Wang, Rui; Li, Rujian; Hu, Yaxian; Guo, Shengli

2016-01-01

Nitrogen (N) fertilization has a considerable effect on food production and carbon cycling in agro-ecosystems. However, the impacts of N fertilization rates on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q10) were controversial. Five N rates (N0, N45, N90, N135, and N180) were applied to a continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop on the semi-arid Loess Plateau, and the in situ soil respiration was monitored during five consecutive years from 2008 to 2013. During the growing season, the mean soil respiration rates increased with increasing N fertilization rates, peaking at 1.53 μmol m−2s−1 in the N135 treatment. A similar dynamic pattern was observed during the non-growing season, yet on average with 7.3% greater soil respiration rates than the growing season. In general for all the N fertilization treatments, the mean Q10 value during the non-growing season was significantly greater than that during the growing season. As N fertilization rates increased, the Q10 values did not change significantly in the growing season but significantly decreased in the non-growing season. Overall, N fertilization markedly influenced soil respirations and Q10 values, in particular posing distinct effects on the Q10 values between the growing and non-growing seasons. PMID:27992576

Linear single-step image reconstruction in the presence of nonscattering regions

Science.gov (United States)

Dehghani, H.; Delpy, D. T.

2002-06-01

There is growing interest in the use of near-infrared spectroscopy for the noninvasive determination of the oxygenation level within biological tissue. Stemming from this application, there has been further research in using this technique for obtaining tomographic images of the neonatal head, with the view of determining the level of oxygenated and deoxygenated blood within the brain. Because of computational complexity, methods used for numerical modeling of photon transfer within tissue have usually been limited to the diffusion approximation of the Boltzmann transport equation. The diffusion approximation, however, is not valid in regions of low scatter, such as the cerebrospinal fluid. Methods have been proposed for dealing with nonscattering regions within diffusing materials through the use of a radiosity-diffusion model. Currently, this new model assumes prior knowledge of the void region; therefore it is instructive to examine the errors introduced in applying a simple diffusion-based reconstruction scheme in cases where a nonscattering region exists. We present reconstructed images, using linear algorithms, of models that contain a nonscattering region within a diffusing material. The forward data are calculated by using the radiosity-diffusion model, and the inverse problem is solved by using either the radiosity-diffusion model or the diffusion-only model. When using data from a model containing a clear layer and reconstructing with the correct model, one can reconstruct the anomaly, but the qualitative accuracy and the position of the reconstructed anomaly depend on the size and the position of the clear regions. If the inverse model has no information about the clear regions (i.e., it is a purely diffusing model), an anomaly can be reconstructed, but the resulting image has very poor qualitative accuracy and poor localization of the anomaly. The errors in quantitative and localization accuracies depend on the size and location of the clear regions.

Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model: Setting the Context

Science.gov (United States)

Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

2016-01-01

This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Gradient on Runoff and Soil Moisture Content on Different Growing Stages of Spring Maize

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbin Mu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The rainfall-runoff process (RRP is an important part of hydrologic process. There is an effective measure to study RRP through artificial rainfall simulation. This paper describes a study on three growing stages (jointing stage, tasseling stage, and mature stage of spring maize in which simulated rainfall events were used to study the effects of various factors (rainfall intensity and slope gradient on the RRP. The RRP was tested with three different rainfall intensities (0.67, 1.00, and 1.67 mm/min and subjected to three different slopes (5°, 15°, and 20° so as to study RRP characteristics in semiarid regions. Regression analysis was used to study the results of this test. The following key results were obtained: (1 With the increase in rainfall intensity and slope, the increasing relationship with rainfall duration, overland flow, and cumulative runoff, respectively, complied with logarithmic and quadratic functions before reaching stable runoff in each growing stage of spring maize; (2 The runoff coefficient increased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope in each growing stages of spring maize. The relationship between runoff coefficient, slope, rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage was multivariate and nonlinear; (3 The runoff lag time decreased with the increase in rainfall intensity and slope within the same growing stage. In addition, the relationship between runoff lag time, slope, rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture, and vegetation coverage could also be expressed by a multivariate nonlinear equation; (4 The descent rate of soil infiltration rate curve increased with the increased rainfall intensity and slope in the same growing stage. Furthermore, by comparing the Kostiakov, Horton, and Philip models, it was found that the Horton infiltration model was the best for estimating soil infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration under the condition of test.

Variations in Growing-Season NDVI and Its Response to Permafrost Degradation in Northeast China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinting Guo

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. The degradation of permafrost has strong and profound effects on vegetation. The permafrost zone of northeastern China is the second largest region of permafrost in China and lies on the south edge of the Eurasian cryolithozone. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the growing-season Normalization Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI in the permafrost zone of northeastern China and analyzed the correlation between NDVI and ground surface temperatures (GST during the years 1981–2014. Mean growing-season NDVI (MGS-NDVI experienced a marked increase of 0.003 year−1 across the entire permafrost zone. The spatial dynamics of vegetation cover had a high degree of heterogeneity on a per pixel scale. The MGS-NDVI value increased significantly (5% significance level in 80.57%, and this increase was mostly distributed in permafrost zone except for the western steppe region. Only 7.72% experienced a significant decrease in NDVI, mainly in the cultivated and steppe portions. In addition, MGS-NDVI increased significantly with increasing growing-season mean ground surface temperature (GS-MGST. Our results suggest that a warming of GS-MGST (permafrost degradation in the permafrost region of northeastern China played a positive role in increasing plant growth and activities. Although increasing ground surface temperature resulted in increased vegetation cover and growth in the short time of permafrost degradation, from the long term point of view, permafrost degradation or disappearance may weaken or even hinder vegetation activities.

Approach of regional gravity field modeling from GRACE data for improvement of geoid modeling for Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Kuroishi, Y.; Lemoine, F. G.; Rowlands, D. D.

2006-12-01

The latest gravimetric geoid model for Japan, JGEOID2004, suffers from errors at long wavelengths (around 1000 km) in a range of +/- 30 cm. The model was developed by combining surface gravity data with a global marine altimetric gravity model, using EGM96 as a foundation, and the errors at long wavelength are presumably attributed to EGM96 errors. The Japanese islands and their vicinity are located in a region of plate convergence boundaries, producing substantial gravity and geoid undulations in a wide range of wavelengths. Because of the geometry of the islands and trenches, precise information on gravity in the surrounding oceans should be incorporated in detail, even if the geoid model is required to be accurate only over land. The Kuroshio Current, which runs south of Japan, causes high sea surface variability, making altimetric gravity field determination complicated. To reduce the long-wavelength errors in the geoid model, we are investigating GRACE data for regional gravity field modeling at long wavelengths in the vicinity of Japan. Our approach is based on exclusive use of inter- satellite range-rate data with calibrated accelerometer data and attitude data, for regional or global gravity field recovery. In the first step, we calibrate accelerometer data in terms of scales and biases by fitting dynamically calculated orbits to GPS-determined precise orbits. The calibration parameters of accelerometer data thus obtained are used in the second step to recover a global/regional gravity anomaly field. This approach is applied to GRACE data obtained for the year 2005 and resulting global/regional gravity models are presented and discussed.

Levels of specificity of Xylaria species associated with fungus-growing termites: a phylogenetic approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visser, Andre; Ros, V I D; De Beer, Z. W.

2009-01-01

of the ascomycete genus Xylaria appear and rapidly cover the fungus garden. This raises the question whether certain Xylaria species are specialised in occupying termite nests or whether they are just occasional visitors. We tested Xylaria specificity at four levels: (1) fungus-growing termites, (2) termite genera...... of the ITS region revealed 16 operational taxonomic units of Xylaria, indicating high levels of Xylaria species richness. Not much of this variation was explained by termite genus, species, or colony; thus, at level 2-4 the specificity is low. Analysis of the large subunit rDNA region, showed that all...... termite-associated Xylaria belong to a single clade, together with only three of the 26 non-termite-associated strains. Termite-associated Xylaria thus show specificity for fungus-growing termites (level 1). We did not find evidence for geographic or temporal structuring in these Xylaria phylogenies...

Modelling non-hydrostatic processes in sill regions

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, A.; Xing, J.; Davies, A.; Berntsen, J.

2007-12-01

We use a non-hydrostatic model to compute tidally induced flow and mixing in the region of bottom topography representing the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive (Scotland). This site is chosen since detailed measurements were recently made there. With non-hydrostatic dynamics in the model our results showed that the model could reproduce the observed flow characteristics, e.g., hydraulic transition, flow separation and internal waves. However, when calculations were performed using the model in the hydrostatic form, significant artificial convective mixing occurred. This influenced the computed temperature and flow field. We will discuss in detail the effects of non-hydrostatic dynamics on flow over the sill, especially investigate non-linear and non-hydrostatic contributions to modelled internal waves and internal wave energy fluxes.

Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

Cluster growing process and a sequence of magic numbers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Solov'yov, Ilia; Solov'yov, Andrey V.; Greiner, Walter

2003-01-01

demonstrate that in this way all known global minimum structures of the Lennard-Jones (LJ) clusters can be found. Our method provides an efficient tool for the calculation and analysis of atomic cluster structure. With its use we justify the magic number sequence for the clusters of noble gas atoms......We present a new theoretical framework for modeling the cluster growing process. Starting from the initial tetrahedral cluster configuration, adding new atoms to the system, and absorbing its energy at each step, we find cluster growing paths up to the cluster sizes of more than 100 atoms. We...

Modeling polar cap F-region patches using time varying convection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sojka, J.J.; Bowline, M.D.; Schunk, R.W.; Decker, D.T.; Valladares, C.E.; Sheehan, R.; Anderson, D.N.; Heelis, R.A.

1993-01-01

Here the authors present the results of computerized simulations of the polar cap regions which were able to model the formation of polar cap patches. They used the Utah State University Time-Dependent Ionospheric Model (TDIM) and the Phillips Laboratory (PL) F-region models in this work. By allowing a time varying magnetospheric electric field in the models, they were able to generate the patches. This time varying field generates a convection in the ionosphere. This convection is similar to convective changes observed in the ionosphere at times of southward pointing interplanetary magnetic field, due to changes in the B y component of the IMF

Regional parametrisation of a monthly hydrological model for estimating discharges in ungaued catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Hlavcova, K.; Szolgay, J.; Kohnova, S.; Kalas, M.

2003-04-01

In the case of the absence of measured runoff optimisation techniques cannot be used to estimate the parameters of monthly rainfall-runoff models. In such a case usually empirical regression methods were used for relating the model parameters to the catchment characteristics in a given region. In the paper a different method for the regional calibration of a monthly water balance model, which can be used for planning purposes, is proposed. Instead of using the regional regression approach a method is proposed, which involves the calibration of a monthly water balance model to gauged sites in the given region simultaneously. A regional objective function was constructed and for the calibration a genetic programming algorithm was employed. It is expected, that the regionally calibrated model parameters can be used in ungauged basins with similar physiographic conditions. The comparison of the performance of such a regional calibration scheme was compared with two single site calibration methods in a region of West Slovakia. The results are based on a study that aimed at computing surface water inflow into a lowland area with valuable groundwater resources. Monthly discharge time series had to be estimated in small ungauged rivers entering the study area.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

Science.gov (United States)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of

Fused cerebral organoids model interactions between brain regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bagley, Joshua A; Reumann, Daniel; Bian, Shan; Lévi-Strauss, Julie; Knoblich, Juergen A

2017-07-01

Human brain development involves complex interactions between different regions, including long-distance neuronal migration or formation of major axonal tracts. Different brain regions can be cultured in vitro within 3D cerebral organoids, but the random arrangement of regional identities limits the reliable analysis of complex phenotypes. Here, we describe a coculture method combining brain regions of choice within one organoid tissue. By fusing organoids of dorsal and ventral forebrain identities, we generate a dorsal-ventral axis. Using fluorescent reporters, we demonstrate CXCR4-dependent GABAergic interneuron migration from ventral to dorsal forebrain and describe methodology for time-lapse imaging of human interneuron migration. Our results demonstrate that cerebral organoid fusion cultures can model complex interactions between different brain regions. Combined with reprogramming technology, fusions should offer researchers the possibility to analyze complex neurodevelopmental defects using cells from neurological disease patients and to test potential therapeutic compounds.

EVALUATING REGIONAL PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF A PROCESS-BASED MERCURY EXPOSURE MODEL, REGIONAL-MERCURY CYCLING MODEL (R-MCM), APPLIED TO 91 VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LAKES AND PONDS, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Regulatory agencies must develop fish consumption advisories for many lakes and rivers with limited resources. Process-based mathematical models are potentially valuable tools for developing regional fish advisories. The Regional Mercury Cycling model (R-MCM) was specifically d...

Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

KAUST Repository

Evans, J. P.; McCabe, Matthew

2013-01-01

Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

KAUST Repository

Evans, J. P.

2013-03-26

Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

2015-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

A regional model for sustainable biogas production. Case study: North Savo, Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huopana, T.; Niska, H.; Jaeskelaeinen, A.; Loonik, J.; Den Boer, E.; Song, H.; Thorin, E.

2012-11-15

This report is one of the outputs from the REMOWE (Regional Mobilizing of Sustainable Waste-to-Energy Production) project. REMOWE is one of the projects within the Baltic Sea Region Programme. The overall objective of the REMOWE project is, on regional levels, to contribute to a decreased negative effect on the environment by reduction of carbon dioxide emission by creating a balance between energy consumption and sustainable use of renewable energy sources. Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and use of renewable energy sources are broad areas and this project will focus on energy resources from waste and actions to facilitate implementation of energy efficient technology in the Baltic Sea region within the waste-to-energy area. The focus is to utilize waste from cities, farming and industry for energy purposes in an efficient way. The problem addressed by the project concerns how to facilitate the implementation of sustainable systems for waste-to-energy in the Baltic Sea region and specifically, in a first step, in the project partner regions. The project partnership consists of the Maelardalen University, with the School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology coordinating the project, and The County Administrative Board of Vaestmanland in Sweden, Savonia University of Applied Sciences, Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for North Savo, and University of Eastern Finland (UEF) in Finland, Marshal Office of Lower Silesia in Poland, Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences, Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences in Wolfenbuettel in Germany, Klaipeda University in Lithuania, and Estonian Regional and Local Development Agency (ERKAS) in Estonia. This report is based on the modelling work performed in the work package 5 ('Model of sustainable regional waste-to-energy production') of the REMOWE project. The key objective has been on developing a regional model based on available geographic information for

Ecophysiological function of leaf 'windows' in Lithops species - 'Living Stones' that grow underground.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, C E; Brandmeyer, E A; Ross, R D

2013-01-01

Leaf temperatures were lower when light entry at the leaf tip window was prevented through covering the window with reflective tape, relative to leaf temperatures of plants with leaf tip windows covered with transparent tape. This was true when leaf temperatures were measured with an infrared thermometer, but not with a fine-wire thermocouple. Leaf tip windows of Lithops growing in high-rainfall regions of southern Africa were larger than the windows of plants (numerous individuals of 17 species) growing in areas with less rainfall and, thus, more annual insolation. The results of this study indicate that leaf tip windows of desert plants with an underground growth habit can allow entry of supra-optimal levels of radiant energy, thus most likely inhibiting photosynthetic activity. Consequently, the size of the leaf tip windows correlates inversely with habitat solar irradiance, minimising the probability of photoinhibition, while maximising the absorption of irradiance in cloudy, high-rainfall regions. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Climatic features of the Red Sea from a regional assimilative model

KAUST Repository

Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

2016-08-16

The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to generate a downscaled, 10-km resolution regional climate dataset over the Red Sea and adjacent region. The model simulations are performed based on two, two-way nested domains of 30- and 10-km resolutions assimilating all conventional observations using a cyclic three-dimensional variational approach over an initial 12-h period. The improved initial conditions are then used to generate regional climate products for the following 24 h. We combined the resulting daily 24-h datasets to construct a 15-year Red Sea atmospheric downscaled product from 2000 to 2014. This 15-year downscaled dataset is evaluated via comparisons with various in situ and gridded datasets. Our analysis indicates that the assimilated model successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal variability of temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and sea level pressure over the Red Sea region. The model also efficiently simulated the seasonal and monthly variability of wind patterns, the Red Sea Convergence Zone and associated rainfall. Our results suggest that dynamical downscaling and assimilation of available observations improve the representation of regional atmospheric features over the Red Sea compared to global analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We use the dataset to describe the atmospheric climatic conditions over the Red Sea region. © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

2006-01-01

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

Growing media constituents determine the microbial nitrogen conversions in organic growing media for horticulture.

Science.gov (United States)

Grunert, Oliver; Reheul, Dirk; Van Labeke, Marie-Christine; Perneel, Maaike; Hernandez-Sanabria, Emma; Vlaeminck, Siegfried E; Boon, Nico

2016-05-01

Vegetables and fruits are an important part of a healthy food diet, however, the eco-sustainability of the production of these can still be significantly improved. European farmers and consumers spend an estimated €15.5 billion per year on inorganic fertilizers and the production of N-fertilizers results in a high carbon footprint. We investigated if fertilizer type and medium constituents determine microbial nitrogen conversions in organic growing media and can be used as a next step towards a more sustainable horticulture. We demonstrated that growing media constituents showed differences in urea hydrolysis, ammonia and nitrite oxidation and in carbon dioxide respiration rate. Interestingly, mixing of the growing media constituents resulted in a stimulation of the function of the microorganisms. The use of organic fertilizer resulted in an increase in amoA gene copy number by factor 100 compared to inorganic fertilizers. Our results support our hypothesis that the activity of the functional microbial community with respect to nitrogen turnover in an organic growing medium can be improved by selecting and mixing the appropriate growing media components with each other. These findings contribute to the understanding of the functional microbial community in growing media and its potential role towards a more responsible horticulture. © 2016 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belcher, D.M.

1988-01-01

This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

Thermal conditions of the grape growing season within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine (on the example of Kharkiv region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Борис Шуліка

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the results of the thermal conditions observations within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine as one of the most important factors for successful cultivation of grapes, thus providing crop productivity. Considering the effect of thermal factors, it can be noted that the intensity and speed of life processes of plants are well- defined under temperature conditions only in the circumstances where other environmental factors are not limited. The thermal regime was initially taken into account in practice in XVII century. In XIX century the agro-climatic areas to grow grapes were determined in North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine. Detailed studies of agro-climatic conditions of specific areas can more thoroughly to make conclusions and recommendations for the cultivation of grapes as a whole in the territory, and specifically in those areas were given. In studying the thermal balance of the territory the average and extreme temperature should be paid attention to. Characteristic features of the thermal regime are given in this paper based on the study of atmospheric phenomena, geomorphology and territories with radiation influence and water flow regime. Thermal treatment is subjected to anthropogenic influence, and in cultivating tenants can use appropriate agricultural practices (conceal bushes, warm soil and air, and even crops in protective ground, in greenhouses. Characteristically, technology of greenhouses growers is even used in Kherson region. These data can be used in neighborhood and the adjacent areas, especially they are useful for the practice of growing grapes. The possibility of successful cultivation of dozens of grape varieties in the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine has been well-grounded.

Postglacial uplift of the eastern Gulf of Finland-Lake Ladoga region: models and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Amantov, Aleksey; Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantova, Marina

2015-04-01

The eastern Gulf of Finland - Lake Ladoga region - is at the peripheral part of the Fennoscandian post-glacial uplift. We compared different modeling results for this region with observations, including our revision of geomorphological traces of paleo shorelevel. As in many parts of the general Baltic-White Sea bedrock lowland at the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, the bedrock landscape was modified by glaciers, but it was also the major controlling factor for the history of glacial grows and decays. First-order landforms of this segment are: Lake Ladoga-Lake Ilmen lowland, Lembolovo High of the Karelic Isthmus and Neva-Gulf of Finland lowland. The range of the bedrock topography is close to 350 m. The landforms reflect different glacial behavior during stadials, with fast movement and strong erosion in northern Ladoga, but passive motion and accumulation around Lembolovo High. The differences influenced the ice sheet and deglaciation history. The shore level displacements in this area are slightly different than westwards in the Baltic area; the shoreline tilts are usually lower in southern-central part of the eastern Gulf of Finland-lake Ladoga region. For example, the shoreline tilts at 11 600 BP in the Baltic Ice Lake in the south-east range from 0.55 to 0.31 m/km. The slope of the Ancylus shoreline varies from 0.12 to 0.18 m/km, increasing to almost the double in the north-western area. Similarly, the Littorina shore level is tilted only 0.08 m/km, rising to 0.14 m/km in the north-west. We have used this data in our high resolution modeling involving glacial isostasy, hydro isostasy, sediment isostasy, and gravity field changes. The mopdeling is based on Earth rheology model with a low-viscosity asthenosphere of thickness less than 150 km and viscosity less than 7.0x10**19 Pa s above a mantle of viscosity 10**21 Pa s, and an effective elastic lithosphere thickness of 30-40 km (flexural rigidity 10**24 Nm). The specific uplift features in the area are

A growing danger: the risks posed by marihuana grow-ops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, F. [Canadian Electricity Association (Canada)

2005-02-01

The proliferation of sophisticated illegal indoor multi-plant marihuana cultivation operations is discussed, focusing primarily on public health and safety issues. Public health issues arise from the high level of molds and pollens caused by high humidity, which can cause asthma, respiratory conditions and allergies, particularly among children, and the likelihood of deadly levels of carbon monoxide build-up resulting from faulty rerouting of the residence's ventilation system. Safety issues discussed are: fires and electrocutions associated with the use of electrical diversions or bipasses to circumvent utility meters, the chemical and electrical hazards involved in investigating and dismantling growing operations, the significant dangers to utility crews who must repair illegal electrical bypasses, injuries by the booby-traps planted to protect the operation from other criminals or law enforcement agents, and the physical danger from the violence, including homicide and assaults, carried out by operators to exert control over production and distribution. Although in general, there is a relaxed attitude towards marihuana use in Canada. there is growing evidence of increasing public concern over large-scale growing operations. Nevertheless, to date operators of grow-ops have been dealt with lightly by the justice system. For example, in British Columbia 11,733 cases have come to the attention of police during the 1997 to 2000 period. Of these about half were dealt with informally (i.e. 'no case' seizures) and 2,255 cases led to at least one offender being convicted. The majority of convictions did not result in custodial dispositions. Only 18 per cent of the cases resulted in prison sentences, the average term being only 4.5 months.

Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

2010-01-01

This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

Regional SAR Image Segmentation Based on Fuzzy Clustering with Gamma Mixture Model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X. L.; Zhao, Q. H.; Li, Y.

2017-09-01

Most of stochastic based fuzzy clustering algorithms are pixel-based, which can not effectively overcome the inherent speckle noise in SAR images. In order to deal with the problem, a regional SAR image segmentation algorithm based on fuzzy clustering with Gamma mixture model is proposed in this paper. First, initialize some generating points randomly on the image, the image domain is divided into many sub-regions using Voronoi tessellation technique. Each sub-region is regarded as a homogeneous area in which the pixels share the same cluster label. Then, assume the probability of the pixel to be a Gamma mixture model with the parameters respecting to the cluster which the pixel belongs to. The negative logarithm of the probability represents the dissimilarity measure between the pixel and the cluster. The regional dissimilarity measure of one sub-region is defined as the sum of the measures of pixels in the region. Furthermore, the Markov Random Field (MRF) model is extended from pixels level to Voronoi sub-regions, and then the regional objective function is established under the framework of fuzzy clustering. The optimal segmentation results can be obtained by the solution of model parameters and generating points. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm can be proved by the qualitative and quantitative analysis from the segmentation results of the simulated and real SAR images.

A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; MacMartin, Douglas G; Robock, Alan; Ricke, Katharine L; Cole, Jason N S; Curry, Charles L; Irvine, Peter J; Ji, Duoying; Moore, John C; Keith, David W; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Muri, Helene; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting

2014-01-01

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO 2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO 2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction. (letter)

Revised model of regional groundwater flow in the Whiteshell research area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ophori, D.U.; Brown, A.; Chan, T.; Davison, C.C.; Gascoyne, M.; Scheier, N.W.; Stanchell, F.W.; Stevenson, D.R.

1996-08-01

Steady-state regional groundwater flow of the Whiteshell Research Area (WRA) has been simulated in order to evaluate alternate locations for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault that maximize the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths through the geosphere. A revised conceptual model of the hydrogeologic conditions was constructed using all the information obtained from field investigations at the WRA between 1977 and 1994. All the simulations were performed using AECL's three-dimensional finite element code, MOTIF. A base-case simulation was performed using average value estimates of hydraulic parameters obtained from the field data, and freshwater was assumed to occur in the entire groundwater flow region. The simulated freshwater heads did not compare favourably with the freshwater beads that were derived from the field data. The simulated equivalent freshwater heads for the final calibrated model compared reasonably well with measured heads in the network of boreholes at the WRA. The simulated recharge rate for the final model was 4.8 mm/a Most of the groundwater flow in the model occurred in local systems between ground surface and a depth of 1000 m. A particle tracking code, TRACK3D, was used to determine the pathways, travel times and exit locations of particles released from different depths in the groundwater velocity field of the calibrated model. The exit locations of these pathways were found to be controlled by the network of regional fracture zones in the model. These results were used to select a location for a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste disposal vault in the regional groundwater flow model that maximizes the retention of vault contaminants in long, slow groundwater flow paths. A smaller region of about 75 km 2 was identified around this location for the development of a local geosphere model. (author). 32 refs., 4 tabs., 29 figs

An analytical solution for the estimation of the critical available soil water fraction for a single layer water balance model under growing crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Brisson

1998-01-01

Full Text Available In the framework of simplified water balance models devoted to irrigation scheduling or crop modelling, the relative transpiration rate (the ratio of actual to maximal transpiration is assumed to decrease linearly when the soil dries out below a critical available water value. This value is usually expressed as a fraction, F, of the maximal available soil water content. The present work aims to use the basic laws governing water transfer through the plants at a daily time step to compute F dynamically as the crop grows. It can be regarded as an expansion of Slabbers' (1980 approach to crop growing conditions. Starting from the mathematical representation given by single-root models (Gardner, 1960, an analytical expression for F is derived, using simplified hypotheses. This expression accounts for plant attributes such as the mean root radius, the critical leaf water potential for stomatal closure and the root length density profile growing with the crop. Environmental factors such as soil type and atmospheric demand also influence F. The structural influence of soil comes from the required introduction of the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity in the single-root model. The shape of the root length density profile is assumed to be sigmoidal and a new profile is calculated at each value of the rooting depth. A sensitivity analysis of F to all those factors is presented. The first general result is that F decreases as the root system grows in depth. Differences in the shape of the root profile can be responsible for differential water stress sensitivity in the early stages of growth. Yet, low critical leaf water potential can compensate partially for a poor root profile. Conversely, F is relatively insensitive to the average root radius. F sensitivity to soil type seems somewhat artificial: given the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity formula, the soil sensitivity results from F being expressed as a fraction of the maximal available soil water content

Documentation of the Santa Clara Valley regional ground-water/surface-water flow model, Santa Clara Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, R.T.; Li, Zhen; Faunt, C.C.

2004-01-01

The Santa Clara Valley is a long, narrow trough extending about 35 miles southeast from the southern end of San Francisco Bay where the regional alluvial-aquifer system has been a major source of water. Intensive agricultural and urban development throughout the 20th century and related ground-water development resulted in ground-water-level declines of more than 200 feet and land subsidence of as much as 12.7 feet between the early 1900s and the mid-1960s. Since the 1960s, Santa Clara Valley Water District has imported surface water to meet growing demands and reduce dependence on ground-water supplies. This importation of water has resulted in a sustained recovery of the ground-water flow system. To help support effective management of the ground-water resources, a regional ground-water/surface-water flow model was developed. This model simulates the flow of ground water and surface water, changes in ground-water storage, and related effects such as land subsidence. A numerical ground-water/surface-water flow model of the Santa Clara Valley subbasin of the Santa Clara Valley was developed as part of a cooperative investigation with the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The model better defines the geohydrologic framework of the regional flow system and better delineates the supply and demand components that affect the inflows to and outflows from the regional ground-water flow system. Development of the model includes revisions to the previous ground-water flow model that upgraded the temporal and spatial discretization, added source-specific inflows and outflows, simulated additional flow features such as land subsidence and multi-aquifer wellbore flow, and extended the period of simulation through September 1999. The transient-state model was calibrated to historical surface-water and ground-water data for the period 197099 and to historical subsidence for the period 198399. The regional ground-water flow system consists of multiple aquifers that are grouped

Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Peter; Antal, Tibor

2015-01-01

We present an explicit solution to a classic model of cell-population growth introduced by Luria and Delbrück (1943 Genetics 28 491–511) 70 years ago to study the emergence of mutations in bacterial populations. In this model a wild-type population is assumed to grow exponentially in a deterministic fashion. Proportional to the wild-type population size, mutants arrive randomly and initiate new sub-populations of mutants that grow stochastically according to a supercritical birth and death process. We give an exact expression for the generating function of the total number of mutants at a given wild-type population size. We present a simple expression for the probability of finding no mutants, and a recursion formula for the probability of finding a given number of mutants. In the ‘large population-small mutation’ limit we recover recent results of Kessler and Levine (2014 J. Stat. Phys. doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1143-3) for a fully stochastic version of the process. (paper)

Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir [Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, E-50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Traulsen, Arne [Emmy-Noether Group for Evolutionary Dynamics, Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, August-Thienemann-Strasse 2, 24306 Ploen (Germany)], E-mail: traulsen@evolbio.mpg.de

2009-08-15

We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

2009-01-01

We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

Use of phytoindication methods for biomonitoring of urbanized regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holub, Z.; Lackovicova, A.

1992-01-01

At the model region in the industrial agglomeration of the town Bratislava the usability of some phytoindication methods for biomonitoring of urban areas has been tested. Following methods there were found as useful: 1. Chemical analyses of the leaves of freely growing ruderal species (Artemisia vulgaris). 2. Using of transplanted and for a certain time exposed lower plants (Hypogymnia physodes, Sphagnum capillifolium). 3. Use of changing the biological parameters of planted pot plants (Fagopyrum esculentum). (orig.)

The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-P. Pietikäinen

2012-11-01

Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km² and 10 × 10 km². Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

Growing Season Conditions Mediate the Dependence of Aspen on Redistributed Snow Under Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.

2016-12-01

Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid-century years remained relatively unchanged due to variations in growing season conditions. Mid-century years with the largest decreases in NPP typically showed increased spring transpiration rates resulting from earlier leaf flush combined with warmer spring conditions. During these years, the onset of drought stress occurred

The quantum-field renormalization group in the problem of a growing phase boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antonov, N.V.; Vasil'ev, A.N.

1995-01-01

Within the quantum-field renormalization-group approach we examine the stochastic equation discussed by S.I. Pavlik in describing a randomly growing phase boundary. We show that, in contrast to Pavlik's assertion, the model is not multiplicatively renormalizable and that its consistent renormalization-group analysis requires introducing an infinite number of counterterms and the respective coupling constants (open-quotes chargeclose quotes). An explicit calculation in the one-loop approximation shows that a two-dimensional surface of renormalization-group points exits in the infinite-dimensional charge space. If the surface contains an infrared stability region, the problem allows for scaling with the nonuniversal critical dimensionalities of the height of the phase boundary and time, δ h and δ t , which satisfy the exact relationship 2 δ h = δ t + d, where d is the dimensionality of the phase boundary. 23 refs., 1 tab

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

A regional and nonstationary model for partial duration series of extreme rainfall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

as the explanatory variables in the regional and temporal domain, respectively. Further analysis of partial duration series with nonstationary and regional thresholds shows that the mean exceedances also exhibit a significant variation in space and time for some rainfall durations, while the shape parameter is found...... of extreme rainfall. The framework is built on a partial duration series approach with a nonstationary, regional threshold value. The model is based on generalized linear regression solved by generalized estimation equations. It allows a spatial correlation between the stations in the network and accounts...... furthermore for variable observation periods at each station and in each year. Marginal regional and temporal regression models solved by generalized least squares are used to validate and discuss the results of the full spatiotemporal model. The model is applied on data from a large Danish rain gauge network...

Development of regional wheat VI-LAI models using Resourcesat-1 ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

for assimilation into climate models or to study the biogeochemical cycles. ... of these data for regional scale study due to cloud ... The details of agro-climatic regions, the soil types, the wheat .... out to minimize the border effect on crop growth.

Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

Science.gov (United States)

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Miller, James R.

2012-01-01

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria rs = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined (rs = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data (rs = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and rs = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by

How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claas Teichmann

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

2017-01-01

Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Hajek

Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

Growing Up in Poverty, Growing Old in Infirmity: The Long Arm of Childhood Conditions in Great Britain.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gindo Tampubolon

Full Text Available The ageing population poses a tremendous challenge in understanding the sources of inequalities in health. Though they appear to be far removed, childhood conditions are known to be inextricably linked with adult health, and in turn on health in later life. The long arm of childhood conditions hypothesis is often tested using recollection of childhood circumstances, but such subjective recall can yield potentially inaccurate or possibly biased inferences. We tested the long arm hypothesis on three outcomes in later life, arrayed from objective to subjective health, namely: gait speed, episodic memory and mental health.We used the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2006 enriched with retrospective life history (N = 5,913. To deal with recall problems two solutions, covariate measurement and endogenous treatment models, were applied. Retrospective childhood material lack includes growing up without running hot or cold water, fixed bath, indoor lavatory and central heating. Adjustment is made for an extensive set of confounders including sex, age, adult health, wealth, education, occupation, social support, social connections, chronic conditions, smoking, drinking, and physical exercise. It is found that material poverty when growing up shows no association with health when growing old, assuming accurate recall. Once recall problems are controlled, we found that childhood material poverty changes inversely with later life health.A poorer childhood goes with slower gait, poorer memory and more depression in later life. This result provides a further impetus to eliminate child poverty.

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora in Ethiopia's Afar region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew W. Luizza

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine in Ethiopia's Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80 and the final model (test AUC = 0.96. Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

Regional Densification of a Global VTEC Model Based on B-Spline Representations

Science.gov (United States)

Erdogan, Eren; Schmidt, Michael; Dettmering, Denise; Goss, Andreas; Seitz, Florian; Börger, Klaus; Brandert, Sylvia; Görres, Barbara; Kersten, Wilhelm F.; Bothmer, Volker; Hinrichs, Johannes; Mrotzek, Niclas

2017-04-01

The project OPTIMAP is a joint initiative of the Bundeswehr GeoInformation Centre (BGIC), the German Space Situational Awareness Centre (GSSAC), the German Geodetic Research Institute of the Technical University Munich (DGFI-TUM) and the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen (IAG). The main goal of the project is the development of an operational tool for ionospheric mapping and prediction (OPTIMAP). Two key features of the project are the combination of different satellite observation techniques (GNSS, satellite altimetry, radio occultations and DORIS) and the regional densification as a remedy against problems encountered with the inhomogeneous data distribution. Since the data from space-geoscientific mission which can be used for modeling ionospheric parameters, such as the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) or the electron density, are distributed rather unevenly over the globe at different altitudes, appropriate modeling approaches have to be developed to handle this inhomogeneity. Our approach is based on a two-level strategy. To be more specific, in the first level we compute a global VTEC model with a moderate regional and spectral resolution which will be complemented in the second level by a regional model in a densification area. The latter is a region characterized by a dense data distribution to obtain a high spatial and spectral resolution VTEC product. Additionally, the global representation means a background model for the regional one to avoid edge effects at the boundaries of the densification area. The presented approach based on a global and a regional model part, i.e. the consideration of a regional densification is called the Two-Level VTEC Model (TLVM). The global VTEC model part is based on a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-Splines in latitude direction and trigonometric B-Splines in longitude direction. The additional regional model part is set up by a series expansion in terms of polynomial B-splines for

Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, M.

2015-01-01

KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

Spatio-Temporal Changes in Vegetation Activity and Its Driving Factors during the Growing Season in China from 1982 to 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Qu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Using National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR and Climatic Research Unit (CRU climate datasets, we analyzed interannual trends in the growing-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI in China from 1982 to 2011, as well as the effects of climatic variables and human activities on vegetation variation. Growing-season (period between the onset and end of plant growth NDVI significantly increased (p < 0.01 on a national scale and showed positive trends in 52.76% of the study area. A multiple regression model was used to investigate the response of vegetation to climatic factors during recent and previous time intervals. The interactions between growing-season NDVI and climatic variables were more complex than expected, and a lag existed between climatic factors and their effects on NDVI. The regression residuals were used to show that over 6% of the study area experienced significantly human-induced vegetation variations (p < 0.05. These regions were mostly located in densely populated, reclaimed agriculture, afforestation, and conservation areas. Similar conclusions were drawn based on land-use change over the study period.

EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

1999-01-01

Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

Carcass traits and meat quality of different slow growing and fast growing broiler chickens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Oblakova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract. The experiment was conducted in the breeder farm of department Population genetics, reproduction and technologies of poultry and rabbits at the Agriculture Institute of Stara Zagora. Five lines from the National Gene Pool of Bulgaria: line Ss (Sussex, line E (Barred Plymouth Rock, line NG (New Hampshire, line F (NG x Red Rhode Island, line L (White Plymouth Rock were used as maternal forms in the crossing schedule and line M (Cornish as a paternal form for production of slow-growing broilers. The birds were grown to 84 days. Feeding was done with compound feeds according to the age: starter (1/14 days of age, grower (14/28 days of age, finisher (28/84 days of age. By the end of the experiment, slaughter analysis was performed with 3 female and 3 male broiler chickens per group with live weight corresponding to the average of each genotype. The live weight was determined, as well as the grill weight, the weights of cuts (breast, thighs, wings, edible offal (heart, liver, gizzard and abdominal fat. On the basis of these data, the slaughter yield and body parts ratios were calculated. The data for the live body weights of birds at slaughtering indicated the highest values for group V – 4040g, followed by groups ІV and ІІ – 3271.67g and 3186.67g, respectively (p<0.05. There was a statistically significant difference between the sexes with superiority of male birds (p<0.001. In the other 3 groups, breast meat percentage ranged from 19.48 to 19.84%. The share of thighs from the grill was the greatest in slow-growing chickens from group II – 33.01%, followed by group І – 32.35%, group IV – 32.18%, and the lowest- in groups ІІІ and V (31.91% and 31.18%, respectively. The analysis of data exhibited a significant effect of the genotype on water content of breast meat (resp. Dry matter, with lower values in slow-growing birds from group III – 73.19% (p<0.05, whereas in the other groups it ranged between 73.44 and 73.62%. The

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Baca

Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.

2014-12-01

In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry V. Sein

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Engeland

2002-01-01

Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

Volume growth trends in a Douglas-fir levels-of-growing-stock study.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert O. Curtis

2006-01-01

Mean curves of increment and yield in gross total cubic volume and net merchantable cubic volume were derived from seven installations of the regional cooperative Levels-of-Growing-Stock Study (LOGS) in Douglas-fir. The technique used reduces the seven curves for each treatment for each variable of interest to a single set of readily interpretable mean curves. To a top...

Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.

1997-01-01

We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Winick, Herman

2013-03-01

UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

Regional cooperation in transportation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-02-01

As Floridas urbanized areas grow and merge, : neighboring jurisdictions experience interrelated : problems and opportunities, and regional : cooperation becomes an imperative. In the : transportation sector, Floridas metropolitan : planning org...

Levels of some heavy metals and nutritional compositions of cocoa beans from selected cocoa- growing areas in Ashanti and Western regions of Ghana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asante, Nnuro William

2013-03-01

In this study, the levels of six heavy metals namely: cadmium, lead, copper, manganese, iron and zinc were determined in cocoa beans from some cocoa-growing areas in the Western and Ashanti Regions of Ghana using atomic absorption spectroscopy. The metal levels in the cocoa beans from the Western Region, expressed in mg/ kg varied from 0.045 to 0.066 with mean value of 0.054 for cadmium, from 0.013 to 0.030 with mean value of 0.020 for lead, from 46.47 to 55.17 with mean value of 51.98 for copper, from 48.36 to 64.65 with mean value of 55.18 for manganese, from 43.80 to 53.11 with the mean value of 47.51 iron and from 43.04 to 52.06 with the mean value of 48.29 for zinc. Those of Ashanti Region ranged from 0.050 to 0.065 with the mean value of 0.056 for cadmium, from 0.014 to 0.020 with the mean value of 0.017 for lead, from 47.43 to 54.17 with the mean value of 49.10 for copper, from 47.15 to 57.34 with the mean value of 54.62 for manganese, from 50.23 to 63.87 with the mean value of 54.63 for iron and from 53.02 to 58.71 with the mean value of 56.49 for zinc. Upon proximate analyses of four of the samples chosen at random (two samples from each region), it was found that all the samples were of high fat and carbohydrate content. The percentages of fat were 45.52%, 43.85%, 45.57% and 36.72% in samples from Kasapen, Asampaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Those of carbohydrates were 32.56%, 32.08%, 31.62% and 42.88% in cocoa samples from Kasapen, Asempaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Levels of proteins were 14.34%, 13.97%, 13.74% and 13.91% in the samples from the towns as listed in the order above. The samples from Kasapen in the Western Region gave 3.15%, 3.40% and 1.03% for moisture, ash and fibre contents respectively. The moisture, ash and fibre content in samples from Asempaneye also in the Western Region were 4.39%, 3.69% and 1.02% respectively. Samples from Bekwai in the Ashanti Region gave 4.46%, 3.52% and1.09% for moisture, ash and fibre contents

Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, A. F.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Zimdars, P.; Waliser, D. E.; Crichton, D. J.

2011-12-01

Climate observations are currently obtained through a diverse network of sensors and platforms that include space-based observatories, airborne and seaborne platforms, and distributed, networked, ground-based instruments. These global observational measurements are critical inputs to the efforts of the climate modeling community and can provide a corpus of data for use in analysis and validation of climate models. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an effort currently being undertaken to address the challenges of integrating this vast array of observational climate data into a coherent resource suitable for performing model analysis at the regional level. Developed through a collaboration between the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), the RCMES uses existing open source technologies (MySQL, Apache Hadoop, and Apache OODT), to construct a scalable, parametric, geospatial data store that incorporates decades of observational data from a variety of NASA Earth science missions, as well as other sources into a consistently annotated, highly available scientific resource. By eliminating arbitrary partitions in the data (individual file boundaries, differing file formats, etc), and instead treating each individual observational measurement as a unique, geospatially referenced data point, the RCMES is capable of transforming large, heterogeneous collections of disparate observational data into a unified resource suitable for comparison to climate model output. This facility is further enhanced by the availability of a model evaluation toolkit which consists of a set of Python libraries, a RESTful web service layer, and a browser-based graphical user interface that allows for orchestration of model-to-data comparisons by composing them visually through web forms. This combination of tools and interfaces dramatically simplifies the process of interacting with and

Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

2007-01-01

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

Estimating spatial accessibility to facilities on the regional scale: an extended commuting-based interaction potential model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charreire Hélène

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is growing interest in the study of the relationships between individual health-related behaviours (e.g. food intake and physical activity and measurements of spatial accessibility to the associated facilities (e.g. food outlets and sport facilities. The aim of this study is to propose measurements of spatial accessibility to facilities on the regional scale, using aggregated data. We first used a potential accessibility model that partly makes it possible to overcome the limitations of the most frequently used indices such as the count of opportunities within a given neighbourhood. We then propose an extended model in order to take into account both home and work-based accessibility for a commuting population. Results Potential accessibility estimation provides a very different picture of the accessibility levels experienced by the population than the more classical "number of opportunities per census tract" index. The extended model for commuters increases the overall accessibility levels but this increase differs according to the urbanisation level. Strongest increases are observed in some rural municipalities with initial low accessibility levels. Distance to major urban poles seems to play an essential role. Conclusions Accessibility is a multi-dimensional concept that should integrate some aspects of travel behaviour. Our work supports the evidence that the choice of appropriate accessibility indices including both residential and non-residential environmental features is necessary. Such models have potential implications for providing relevant information to policy-makers in the field of public health.

Regional Seismic Amplitude Modeling and Tomography for Earthquake-Explosion Discrimination

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, W. R.; Pasyanos, M. E.; Matzel, E.; Gok, R.; Sweeney, J.; Ford, S. R.; Rodgers, A. J.

2008-12-01

Empirically explosions have been discriminated from natural earthquakes using regional amplitude ratio techniques such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. We demonstrate that such ratios discriminate nuclear tests from earthquakes using closely located pairs of earthquakes and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform modeling. For example, regional waveform modeling shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make earthquakes appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC earthquake source model applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve earthquake-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East.

Enhancing Infant Mental Health Using a Capacity-Building Model: A Case Study of a Process Evaluation of the "Ready, Steady, Grow" Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

O'Farrelly, Christine; Guerin, Suzanne; Victory, Gerard

2017-01-01

Infant mental health (IMH) is best promoted through a continuum of services underpinned by strong service capacity. However, service providers often lack fundamental IMH knowledge and skills. Using the Ready, Steady, Grow (RSG) initiative as a case study of a capacity-building model (P., Hawe, L., King, M., Noort, C., Jordens, & B., Llyod,…

Modeling the explosion-source region: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glenn, L.A.

1993-01-01

The explosion-source region is defined as the region surrounding an underground explosion that cannot be described by elastic or anelastic theory. This region extends typically to ranges up to 1 km/(kt) 1/3 but for some purposes, such as yield estimation via hydrodynamic means (CORRTEX and HYDRO PLUS), the maximum range of interest is less by an order of magnitude. For the simulation or analysis of seismic signals, however, what is required is the time resolved motion and stress state at the inelastic boundary. Various analytic approximations have been made for these boundary conditions, but since they rely on near-field empirical data they cannot be expected to reliably extrapolate to different explosion sites. More important, without some knowledge of the initial energy density and the characteristics of the medium immediately surrounding the explosion, these simplified models are unable to distinguish chemical from nuclear explosions, identify cavity decoupling, or account for such phenomena as anomalous dissipation via pore collapse

CO{sub 2}MPARE. CO2 Model for Operational Programme Assessment in EU Regions. Technical background and guidance for deployment in EU regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hekkenberg, M. [ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Le Pierres, S. [Energies Demain, Montreuil Sous Bois (France); Del Ciello, R. [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA, Rome (Italy); Keppo, I. [University College London UCL, London (United Kingdom); Papagianni, S. [Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving CRES, Pikermi Attiki (Greece); Harnych, J. [ENVIROS, Prague (Czech Republic)

2013-03-15

The CO2MPARE model enables national and regional authorities to assess the carbon impacts of Operational Programmes co-financed through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). This document provides technical background information and guidance for deploying the model in additional EU regions.

[Temporal and spatial change of climate resources and meteorological disasters under climate change during winter crop growing season in Guangdong Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan

2018-01-01

Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.

A Model for the Regionalization of Higher Education: The Role and Contribution of Tuning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Knight

2014-04-01

Full Text Available A notable evolution in the internationalization of higher education in the last decade has been the increasing emphasis on regional level collaboration and reform initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to examine the process of regionalization through the lens of a conceptual model and to demonstrate how different Tuning initiatives serve as useful instruments in the application of the model, and the ultimate realization of higher education regionalization. The evolving nature and meaning of region and regionalization are explored in the first section of the paper. This leads to an analysis and conceptual mapping of the many terms used to describe the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on three distinct but complementary approaches; Functional, Organizational and Political Approaches (FOPA. The three approaches are inter-related. The model is generic in concept and purpose so that it can apply to the evolving process of higher education regionalization in different parts of the world. The article examines how the initiatives and implications of the Tuning process are directly related to the model and consequently make important contributions to the regionalization of higher education in all regions of the world.

Quantitative partition of protein, carbohydrate and fat pools in growing pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chwalibog, André; Thorbek, G

1995-01-01

A model combining data from balance experiments with data from oxidation of nutrients demonstrating the pools of protein, carbohydrate and fat and their partition in the body was presented. Data from more than 200 experiments with growing pigs were used to fill up the "black boxes" in the model a...

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

2015-01-01

Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

Simplified two and fifty-one region state-based EEIO model comparison

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Supporting data for 2 region and 51 region models assessed in the manuscript "Exploring the relevance of spatial scale to life cycle inventory results using...

Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ruiz-Ramos

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

2008-02-15

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

Relative Prevalence of Grapevine Leafroll-Associated Virus Species in Wine Grape-Growing Regions of California.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abhineet M Sharma

Full Text Available Some diseases manifest as one characteristic set of symptoms to the host, but can be caused by multiple pathogens. Control treatments based on plant symptoms can make it difficult to effectively manage such diseases, as the biology of the underlying pathogens can vary. Grapevine leafroll disease affects grapes worldwide, and is associated with several viral species in the family Closteroviridae. Whereas some of the viruses associated with this disease are transmitted by insect vectors, others are only graft-transmissible. In three regions of California, we surveyed vineyards containing diseased vines and screened symptomatic plants for all known viral species associated with grapevine leafroll disease. Relative incidence of each virus species differed among the three regions regions, particularly in relation to species with known vectors compared with those only known to be graft-transmitted. In one region, the pathogen population was dominated by species not known to have an insect vector. In contrast, populations in the other surveyed regions were dominated by virus species that are vector-transmissible. Our survey did not detect viruses associated with grapevine leafroll disease at some sites with characteristic disease symptoms. This could be explained either by undescribed genetic diversity among these viruses that prevented detection with available molecular tools at the time the survey was performed, or a misidentification of visual symptoms that may have had other underlying causes. Based on the differences in relative prevalence of each virus species among regions and among vineyards within regions, we expect that region and site-specific management strategies are needed for effective disease control.

The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application