Sample records for models region growing

  1. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.


    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues

  2. Models to quantify excretion of dry matter, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon in growing pigs fed regional diets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Henry; Poulsen, Hanne Damgaard; Prapaspongsa, Trakarn


    used in a digestibility and balance experiment. Excretion of dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and carbon (C) of the experimental diets were determined. Due to the highest dietary fibre content, VN had the lowest digestibility of N, P and C (73, 49, and 73%, respectively) compared......Modern pig production contributes to many environmental problems that relate to manure, especially in areas with highly intensive production systems and in regions like Asia where the regulative control is not effective. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use three different pig diets...... with the DK and TH pig diets. From the known diet composition using standard table values on chemical and nutrient digestibly, high accuracy (bias) and low variation was found and the results could be used for prediction on chemical composition and excretion in faeces and urine in growing pigs. Calculation...

  3. Incorporating Edge Information into Best Merge Region-Growing Segmentation (United States)

    Tilton, James C.; Pasolli, Edoardo


    We have previously developed a best merge region-growing approach that integrates nonadjacent region object aggregation with the neighboring region merge process usually employed in region growing segmentation approaches. This approach has been named HSeg, because it provides a hierarchical set of image segmentation results. Up to this point, HSeg considered only global region feature information in the region growing decision process. We present here three new versions of HSeg that include local edge information into the region growing decision process at different levels of rigor. We then compare the effectiveness and processing times of these new versions HSeg with each other and with the original version of HSeg.

  4. Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan E Shave

    Full Text Available Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius, in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

  5. SAR Imagery Segmentation by Statistical Region Growing and Hierarchical Merging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ushizima, Daniela Mayumi; Carvalho, E.A.; Medeiros, F.N.S.; Martins, C.I.O.; Marques, R.C.P.; Oliveira, I.N.S.


    This paper presents an approach to accomplish synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image segmentation, which are corrupted by speckle noise. Some ordinary segmentation techniques may require speckle filtering previously. Our approach performs radar image segmentation using the original noisy pixels as input data, eliminating preprocessing steps, an advantage over most of the current methods. The algorithm comprises a statistical region growing procedure combined with hierarchical region merging to extract regions of interest from SAR images. The region growing step over-segments the input image to enable region aggregation by employing a combination of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test with a hierarchical stepwise optimization (HSWO) algorithm for the process coordination. We have tested and assessed the proposed technique on artificially speckled image and real SAR data containing different types of targets.

  6. Image segmentation by iterative parallel region growing and splitting (United States)

    Tilton, James C.


    The spatially constrained clustering (SCC) iterative parallel region-growing technique is applied to image analysis. The SCC algorithm is implemented on the massively parallel processor at NASA Goddard. Most previous region-growing approaches have the drawback that the segmentation produced depends on the order in which portions of the image are processed. The ideal solution to this problem (merging only the single most similar pair of spatially adjacent regions in the image in each iteration) becomes impractical except for very small images, even on a massively parallel computer. The SCC algorithm overcomes these problems by performing, in parallel, the best merge within each of a set of local, possibly overlapping, subimages. A region-splitting stage is also incorporated into the algorithm, but experiments show that region splitting generally does not improve segmentation results. The SCC algorithm has been tested on various imagery data, and test results for a Landsat TM image are summarized.

  7. Region growing using superpixels with learned shape prior (United States)

    Borovec, Jiří; Kybic, Jan; Sugimoto, Akihiro


    Region growing is a classical image segmentation method based on hierarchical region aggregation using local similarity rules. Our proposed method differs from classical region growing in three important aspects. First, it works on the level of superpixels instead of pixels, which leads to a substantial speed-up. Second, our method uses learned statistical shape properties that encourage plausible shapes. In particular, we use ray features to describe the object boundary. Third, our method can segment multiple objects and ensure that the segmentations do not overlap. The problem is represented as an energy minimization and is solved either greedily or iteratively using graph cuts. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with alternative approaches on the task of segmenting individual eggs in microscopy images of Drosophila ovaries.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoslava Ganeva


    Full Text Available The region of Melnik (Southwest Bulgaria has exclusively appropriate climate for wine growing. Its borders are defined by the dissemination of the wide Melnik grape vine, revealed by experts as an old local variety. Few are the wine-growing centers that carry such an effective ampelographic tradition. A few are the viticulture centers, bearing such effective tradition. The vine is grown here from the Thracian antiquity and is the basis for a livelihood, preserved and retransmitted for many generations. It is characterized by a specialization in the production and marketing of high quality red dry wines. The article deals with the development of the Melnik vineyard as a result of different political and economic conditions in the course of historical development. Various archival materials, specialized studies and personal fieldwork research have been used.

  9. Video Segmentation Using Fast Marching and Region Growing Algorithms

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    Eftychis Sifakis


    Full Text Available The algorithm presented in this paper is comprised of three main stages: (1 classification of the image sequence and, in the case of a moving camera, parametric motion estimation, (2 change detection having as reference a fixed frame, an appropriately selected frame or a displaced frame, and (3 object localization using local colour features. The image sequence classification is based on statistical tests on the frame difference. The change detection module uses a two-label fast marching algorithm. Finally, the object localization uses a region growing algorithm based on the colour similarity. Video object segmentation results are shown using the COST 211 data set.

  10. Regional frequency analysis using Growing Neural Gas network (United States)

    Abdi, Amin; Hassanzadeh, Yousef; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.


    The delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is an important issue in regional hydrological frequency analysis. In the present study, an application of the Growing Neural Gas (GNG) network for hydrological data clustering is presented. The GNG is an incremental and unsupervised neural network, which is able to adapt its structure during the training procedure without using a prior knowledge of the size and shape of the network. In the GNG algorithm, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) measure as the cluster validity index is utilized for determining the optimal number of clusters (sub-regions). The capability of the proposed algorithm is illustrated by regionalizing drought severities for 40 synoptic weather stations in Iran. To fulfill this aim, first a clustering method is applied to form the sub-regions and then a heterogeneity measure is used to test the degree of heterogeneity of the delineated sub-regions. According to the MDL measure and considering two different indices namely CS and Davies-Bouldin (DB) in the GNG network, the entire study area is subdivided in two sub-regions located in the eastern and western sides of Iran. In order to evaluate the performance of the GNG algorithm, a number of other commonly used clustering methods, like K-means, fuzzy C-means, self-organizing map and Ward method are utilized in this study. The results of the heterogeneity measure based on the L-moments approach reveal that only the GNG algorithm successfully yields homogeneous sub-regions in comparison to the other methods.

  11. Segmentation of brain parenchyma using bilateral filtering and region growing. (United States)

    Hwang, Jinyoung; Han, Yeji; Park, HyunWook


    When the non-diffusion weighted images (non-DWIs) and the diffusion weighted images (DWIs) are acquired by a fast imaging sequence, they suffer from several artifacts such as N/2 ghost, subject motion, eddy current, etc. These artifacts act as a noise in the background area of the human brain. To extract the brain region from the noisy background, brain parenchyma segmentation has been used. Several segmentation methods presented so far cannot address this problem well. In this study, we propose a novel segmentation method of brain contour in non-DWIs using bilateral filtering, which can reduce the background noise while edge-preserving, and region growing. We compare the segmentation results from various methods, and the proposed method shows better segmentation results than those from other schemes.

  12. Influence of growing and exploatation of bovins on regional agroecosystems

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    Cornel Podar


    Full Text Available Scientists all over the are concerned regarding the influence of growing ruminants on regional agro-ecosystems due to green house gases resulted (CO 2, CH4, N2O5. Cattle have contributed to environmental pollution in old industrial farming systems, when the cattle number in Romania, reached 8 million, manure evacuation was not solved and manure was accumulating around the farm polluting the soil, water and air. Low density of ruminants existing in the agricultural sector of the country is not significant in terms of pollution. Currently cattle have positive effects on the environment by the use of legumes, grasses and manure production contributing to the increase of agricultural production: crop production (sugar beet, potato and cereals, animal production (milk, meat, leather production and industrial production also (biogas, befouls, alcohol, oil production.

  13. Projections of Suitable Wine Growing Regions and Varieties: Adaptation in Space or Place? (United States)

    Forrestel, E. J.; Cook, B.; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Nicholas, K. A.; Parker, A.; van Leeuwen, C.; Wolkovich, E. M.


    Winegrapes (Vitis vinifera L) are the most valuable horticultural crop in the world with nearly eight million hectares of vineyards in cultivation. Different varieties of winegrapes (e.g., Grenache or Syrah) exhibit an unprecedented amount of phenological and genetic diversity for a cultivated species, which is an important resource to buffer against climate change. Matching phenological strategies of the different winegrape varieties to a particular climate is a fundamental aim for every vineyard manager, especially in the face of significant climatic shifts in many winegrape growing regions. Yet current projections of suitable winegrape growing regions based on future climate scenarios are limited in their utility, as they do not consider the possibility that other varieties better suited to a future climate could be planted within an existing region. For our projections, we built phenological models for the nine most-planted winegrapes globally, which constitutes over 40% of all planted hectares, using a global dataset of budburst, flowering, veraison and maturity. These models were then used to characterize the growing range of 1300 globally planted winegrape varieties. Combing these models with climate projection models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios we examined future distributions of suitable wine growing regions, as well as the turnover of suitable varieties within existing regions. In some regions of the world, predicted climate change will not significantly alter the varieties that are able to grow, while in others there will need to be shifts in the region itself or in the varieties that are currently planted. Some regions will also see a significant increase in the number and diversity of varieties that can be grown. Our results suggest the need to utilize the full range of winegrape diversity available when considering adaptive strategies in response to changing climates.

  14. Yeast diversity on grapes in two German wine growing regions. (United States)

    Brysch-Herzberg, Michael; Seidel, Martin


    The yeast diversity on wine grapes in Germany, one of the most northern wine growing regions of the world, was investigated by means of a culture dependent approach. All yeast isolates were identified by sequence analysis of the D1/D2 domain of the 26S rDNA and the ITS region. Besides Hanseniaspora uvarum and Metschnikowia pulcherrima, which are well known to be abundant on grapes, Metschnikowia viticola, Rhodosporidium babjevae, and Curvibasidium pallidicorallinum, as well as two potentially new species related to Sporidiobolus pararoseus and Filobasidium floriforme, turned out to be typical members of the grape yeast community. We found M. viticola in about half of the grape samples in high abundance. Our data strongly suggest that M. viticola is one of the most important fermenting yeast species on grapes in the temperate climate of Germany. The frequent occurrence of Cu. pallidicorallinum and strains related to F. floriforme is a new finding. The current investigation provides information on the distribution of recently described yeast species, some of which are known from a very few strains up to now. Interestingly yeasts known for their role in the wine making process, such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Saccharomyces bayanus ssp. uvarum, Torulaspora delbrueckii, and Zygosaccharomyces bailii, were not found in the grape samples. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Best Merge Region Growing Segmentation with Integrated Non-Adjacent Region Object Aggregation (United States)

    Tilton, James C.; Tarabalka, Yuliya; Montesano, Paul M.; Gofman, Emanuel


    Best merge region growing normally produces segmentations with closed connected region objects. Recognizing that spectrally similar objects often appear in spatially separate locations, we present an approach for tightly integrating best merge region growing with non-adjacent region object aggregation, which we call Hierarchical Segmentation or HSeg. However, the original implementation of non-adjacent region object aggregation in HSeg required excessive computing time even for moderately sized images because of the required intercomparison of each region with all other regions. This problem was previously addressed by a recursive approximation of HSeg, called RHSeg. In this paper we introduce a refined implementation of non-adjacent region object aggregation in HSeg that reduces the computational requirements of HSeg without resorting to the recursive approximation. In this refinement, HSeg s region inter-comparisons among non-adjacent regions are limited to regions of a dynamically determined minimum size. We show that this refined version of HSeg can process moderately sized images in about the same amount of time as RHSeg incorporating the original HSeg. Nonetheless, RHSeg is still required for processing very large images due to its lower computer memory requirements and amenability to parallel processing. We then note a limitation of RHSeg with the original HSeg for high spatial resolution images, and show how incorporating the refined HSeg into RHSeg overcomes this limitation. The quality of the image segmentations produced by the refined HSeg is then compared with other available best merge segmentation approaches. Finally, we comment on the unique nature of the hierarchical segmentations produced by HSeg.

  16. Relationships of a growing magnetic flux region to flares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schadee, A.; Martin, S.F.; Bentley, R.D.; Antalova, A.; Kucera, A.; Dezs, L.; Gesztelyi, L.; Harvey, K.L.; Jones, H.; Livi, S.H.B.; Wang, J.


    Some sites for solar flares are known to develop where new magnetic flux emerges and becomes abutted against opposite polarity pre-existing magnetic flux (review by Galzauskas/1/). We have identified and analyzed the evolution of such flare sites at the boundaries of a major new and growing magnetic

  17. A probabilistic model for sustainable wine growing


    Abbal, Philippe; Cargnello, G.; Carbonneau, Alain


    Objectively evaluating the quality of a vineyard in the context of climate change is not always simple. Bayesian networks are widely used for knowledge representation and reasoning under uncertainty in natural resource management. There is a rising interest for this methodology as tools for ecological and agronomic modelling. We designed a probabilistic model that takes into account the parameters defining the status of a vineyard with their associated interactions. No such mod...

  18. Assessment of the Growing Season Regime Region of Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Centra\\,. Tanzania is 'a semi - arid region with some, parts .' receiving annual rainf~fl of less than 400 mm. The major annual crops: grown in the unimodal. 17. rainfall region include cereals (maize, millet, . and sorghum) and Jmlses(beans). Millet and sorghum are .grown in semi-arid areas of central Tanzania, where 0.

  19. 2D adaptive filtering and region growing algorithm for the detection of microaneurysms in retinal angiograms (United States)

    Serrano, Carmen; Acha, Begona; Revuelto, Sergio


    The diabetic retinopathy is a common disease among diabetic patients that can cause blindness. The number of microaneurysms in an eye fundus indicates the evolution stage of the illness. In this paper, an algorithm to automatically detect microaneurysms in retinal angiograms is proposed. The method has three main steps: preprocessing step, seed detection and a subsequent region-growing algorithm. The preprocessing step consists of a Gaussian high pass filtering followed by a top-hat filtering. The aim of this preprocessing step is to eliminate the vascular tree while enhancing microaneurysms. In the second step, a 2-D adaptive filtering is performed and those pixels where the prediction error is high are considered seeds. After the region growing, only regions that fit certain validation criteria are considered microaneurysms. These criteria are intensity, contrast and shape criteria. Intensity and contrast ones are typical criteria used in region-growing algorithms. To create the shape criterion, we have used the fact that microaneurysms can be modelled as 2D Gaussian functions. During the application of this criterion we pass each grown region through a bank of nine correlators, a 2D Gaussian function and eight linear segments oriented in eight different directions. Then we compare the outputs of this bank and we impose that a region can be a microaneurysm when the maximum peak of correlation is obtained when passing through the Gaussian correlator. In this study we have tested the algorithm with 11 images containing 711 microaneurysms in all and we have obtained a sensitivity of 90,72% for a predictive positive value of 82,35% .

  20. Macronutrient assessment in apple growing region of Punjab

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    M. Siddique


    Full Text Available This study was undertaken with the aim of examining soil and plant macronutrient status (N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S and their interaction to understand causes of low apple yield. Murree region was studied being major apple cultivated area in Punjab. Surveyed apple orchards were selected from all union councils of Murree. Out of thirteen orchard sites, soils of seven sites have been classified as clay loam, three sandy clay loam, two clayey and one loam. Electrical conductivity varied from 0.12 to 2.00 dS m-1 at surface and 0.12 to 1.60 dS m-1 at subsurface soil. Surface soil pH ranged from 7.2 to 8.4. Orchard soils were low in nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur and potassium. Calcium was deficient in all the orchards sites while a general deficiency of magnesium was observed in the area. Apple orchards were deficient in foliage nitrogen, potassium and magnesium but sufficient in phosphorus and calcium contents. Both in soil and foliage, there was a general deficiency of nitrogen, potassium and sulphur. A variable trend of correlation between plant and surface, subsurface N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S was established. Insufficient nutrient status of apple orchards could be the major concern for low yield in the area.

  1. Segmentation of Large Unstructured Point Clouds Using Octree-Based Region Growing and Conditional Random Fields (United States)

    Bassier, M.; Bonduel, M.; Van Genechten, B.; Vergauwen, M.


    Point cloud segmentation is a crucial step in scene understanding and interpretation. The goal is to decompose the initial data into sets of workable clusters with similar properties. Additionally, it is a key aspect in the automated procedure from point cloud data to BIM. Current approaches typically only segment a single type of primitive such as planes or cylinders. Also, current algorithms suffer from oversegmenting the data and are often sensor or scene dependent. In this work, a method is presented to automatically segment large unstructured point clouds of buildings. More specifically, the segmentation is formulated as a graph optimisation problem. First, the data is oversegmented with a greedy octree-based region growing method. The growing is conditioned on the segmentation of planes as well as smooth surfaces. Next, the candidate clusters are represented by a Conditional Random Field after which the most likely configuration of candidate clusters is computed given a set of local and contextual features. The experiments prove that the used method is a fast and reliable framework for unstructured point cloud segmentation. Processing speeds up to 40,000 points per second are recorded for the region growing. Additionally, the recall and precision of the graph clustering is approximately 80%. Overall, nearly 22% of oversegmentation is reduced by clustering the data. These clusters will be classified and used as a basis for the reconstruction of BIM models.

  2. Climate-Smart Landscapes for Managing Water Resources in the Tea Growing Regions of Northeast India (United States)

    Gupta, N.; Biggs, E. M.; Saikia, S. D.; Duncan, J.


    Tea is an important global agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Assam, an agrarian state in northeast India is the largest single tea growing region in the world and the productivity (both in terms of quantity and quality) requires a specific range of enviro-climatic conditions. Precipitation and temperature are two climate factors which highly influence productivity. Thus water plays a critical role in sustaining future tea production in Assam. Recently the region has been affected by heterogeneous spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and rising temperatures. This has led to temporally varying drought-like conditions during the tea production season, reducing crop resilience and degrading yield quality. Quantifying regional climate-yield characteristics enables more effective decision-making regarding climate change mitigation, water resources management and adaptation to sustain (and enhance) future tea crop production. This research used a panel based regression model to statistically quantify the extent to which precipitation and temperature variables are associated with changes in tea yield. Monthly time-series climate and yield data were regressed for the period 2004 to 2014. Yield data were obtained from 80 tea estates across the four main tea growing regions of Assam, and 120 climate variables were selected for analysis. Results indicate that periods of drought (e.g. more than 10 consecutive days of zero precipitation) are significantly associated with reductions in yield, whereas periods of intense precipitation (e.g. number of days where the 95th percentile was exceeded) are generally associated with increased yield. These results have provided an enhanced understanding of climate-yield characteristics, which will subsequently be used to deliver more climate-smart advisory decision-support services to tea producers in the region. Although water resources management practices, such as water harvesting structures, check dams

  3. Medicinal plants growing in the Judea region: network approach for searching potential therapeutic targets

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    Arie Budovsky


    Full Text Available Plants growing in the Judea region are widely used in traditional medicine of the Levant region. Nevertheless, they have not so far been sufficiently analyzed and their medicinal potential has not been evaluated. This study is the first attempt to fill the gap in the knowledge of the plants growing in the region. Comprehensive data mining of online botanical databases and peer-reviewed scientific literature including ethno-pharmacological surveys from the Levant region was applied to compile a full list of plants growing in the Judea region, with the focus on their medicinal applications. Around 1300 plants growing in the Judea region were identified. Of them, 25% have medicinal applications which were analyzed in this study. Screening for chemical-protein interactions, together with the network-based analysis of potential targets, will facilitate discovery and therapeutic applications of the Judea region plants. Such an approach could also be applied as an integrative platform for further searching the potential therapeutic targets of plants growing in other regions of the world.

  4. Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions

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    Brigitte Mueller


    Full Text Available Human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to rising global temperatures. Here we investigate changes in an annual temperature-based index, the growing season length, defined as the number of days with temperature above 5 °C. We show that over extratropical regions where wheat and maize are harvested, the increase in growing season length from 1956 to 2005 can be attributed to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Our analyses also show that climate change has increased the probability of extremely long growing seasons by a factor of 25, and decreased the probability of extremely short growing seasons. A lengthening of the growing season in regions with these mostly rain-fed crops could improve yields, provided that water availability does not become an issue. An expansion of areas with more than 150 days of growing season into the northern latitudes makes more land potentially available for planting wheat and maize. Furthermore, double-cropping can become an alternative to current practices in areas with very long growing seasons which are also shown to increase with a warming climate. These results suggest that there is a strong impact of anthropogenic climate change on growing season length. However, in some regions and with further exacerbated climate change, high temperatures may already be or may become a limiting factor for plant productivity.

  5. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

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    Yang Fu

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  6. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere. (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping


    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  7. Liver Segmentation Based on Snakes Model and Improved GrowCut Algorithm in Abdominal CT Image

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    Huiyan Jiang


    Full Text Available A novel method based on Snakes Model and GrowCut algorithm is proposed to segment liver region in abdominal CT images. First, according to the traditional GrowCut method, a pretreatment process using K-means algorithm is conducted to reduce the running time. Then, the segmentation result of our improved GrowCut approach is used as an initial contour for the future precise segmentation based on Snakes model. At last, several experiments are carried out to demonstrate the performance of our proposed approach and some comparisons are conducted between the traditional GrowCut algorithm. Experimental results show that the improved approach not only has a better robustness and precision but also is more efficient than the traditional GrowCut method.

  8. Automatic segmentation of MRI head images by 3-D region growing method which utilizes edge information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Hao; Suzuki, Hidetomo; Toriwaki, Jun-ichiro


    This paper presents a 3-D segmentation method that automatically extracts soft tissue from multi-sliced MRI head images. MRI produces a sequence of two-dimensional (2-D) images which contains three-dimensional (3-D) information of organs. To utilize such information we need effective algorithms to treat 3-D digital images and to extract organs and tissues of interest. We developed a method to extract the brain from MRI images which uses a region growing procedure and integrates information of uniformity of gray levels and information of the presence of edge segments in the local area around the pixel of interest. First we generate a kernel region which is a part of brain tissue by simple thresholding. Then we grow the region by means of a region growing algorithm under the control of 3-D edge existence to obtain the region of the brain. Our method is rather simple because it uses basic 3-D image processing techniques like spatial difference. It is robust for variation of gray levels inside a tissue since it also refers to the edge information in the process of region growing. Therefore, the method is flexible enough to be applicable to the segmentation of other images including soft tissues which have complicated shapes and fluctuation in gray levels. (author)

  9. The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region (United States)

    Gerersdorfer, T.


    The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.

  10. Automatic segmentation of canine retinal OCT using adaptive gradient enhancement and region growing (United States)

    He, Yufan; Sun, Yankui; Chen, Min; Zheng, Yuanjie; Liu, Hui; Leon, Cecilia; Beltran, William; Gee, James C.


    In recent years, several studies have shown that the canine retina model offers important insight for our understanding of human retinal diseases. Several therapies developed to treat blindness in such models have already moved onto human clinical trials, with more currently under development [1]. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) offers a high resolution imaging modality for performing in-vivo analysis of the retinal layers. However, existing algorithms for automatically segmenting and analyzing such data have been mostly focused on the human retina. As a result, canine retinal images are often still being analyzed using manual segmentations, which is a slow and laborious task. In this work, we propose a method for automatically segmenting 5 boundaries in canine retinal OCT. The algorithm employs the position relationships between different boundaries to adaptively enhance the gradient map. A region growing algorithm is then used on the enhanced gradient maps to find the five boundaries separately. The automatic segmentation was compared against manual segmentations showing an average absolute error of 5.82 +/- 4.02 microns.

  11. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.


    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  12. A growing social network model in geographical space (United States)

    Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco


    In this work we propose a new model for the generation of social networks that includes their often ignored spatial aspects. The model is a growing one and links are created either taking space into account, or disregarding space and only considering the degree of target nodes. These two effects can be mixed linearly in arbitrary proportions through a parameter. We numerically show that for a given range of the combination parameter, and for given mean degree, the generated network class shares many important statistical features with those observed in actual social networks, including the spatial dependence of connections. Moreover, we show that the model provides a good qualitative fit to some measured social networks.

  13. Landscape planning for agridevelopment at regional scale: an example from cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskara Phaneendra Bhaskar


    Full Text Available The basaltic landscape planning on the hot semiarid ecosystem in cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra tends to concentrate on 52 per cent of total cultivated area with 43 per cent of rural families living below poverty line posing major problem for environmental protection and resource management. Concepts of sustainable development at regional-level planning suggested that there is a growing concern for the landscape community to develop a strategic regional agricultural planning perspective in order to assist landscape planning goals. These challenges were explored with particular reference to the cotton growing Yavatmal district in Maharashtra through baseline land resource / agronomic surveys and assessing the production potential of regional rural landscapes for crop planning. Landscape analysis, premised on the geopedological and elevation constructs, culminated in a spatial coverage of hills and ridges (12.6 per cent of total area in northern and central parts whereas plateaus (29.3 per cent in association with isolated hills, mesas and butte and escarpments (17.7 per cent, pediplains (28.8 per cent and plains (8.1 per cent in south western parts of the district. Regional level analysis revealed spatially variable soil typologies dominated by vertisols and vertic intergrades. An exploration and brief account of integration landscape planning was discussed with some reflections on the experience and highlighting some of the problems and potentials of this approach within the regional context.

  14. A Study on the Application of Fuzzy Information Seeded Region Growing in Brain MRI Tissue Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuin-Mu Wang


    Full Text Available After long-term clinical trials, MRI has been proven to be used in humans harmlessly, and it is popularly used in medical diagnosis. Although MR is highly sensitive, it provides abundant organization information. Therefore, how to transform the multi-spectral images which is easier to be used for doctor’s clinical diagnosis. In this thesis, the fuzzy bidirectional edge detection method is used to solve conventional SRG problem of growing order in the initial seed stages. In order to overcome the problems of the different regions, although it is the same Euclidean distance for region growing and merging process stages, we present the peak detection method to improve them. The standard deviation target generation process (SDTGP is applied to guarantee the regions merging process does not cause over- or undersegmentation. Experimental results reveal that FISRG segments a multispectral MR image much more effectively than FAST and K-means.

  15. Automated Segmentation of Coronary Arteries Based on Statistical Region Growing and Heuristic Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Tian


    Full Text Available The segmentation of coronary arteries is a vital process that helps cardiovascular radiologists detect and quantify stenosis. In this paper, we propose a fully automated coronary artery segmentation from cardiac data volume. The method is built on a statistics region growing together with a heuristic decision. First, the heart region is extracted using a multi-atlas-based approach. Second, the vessel structures are enhanced via a 3D multiscale line filter. Next, seed points are detected automatically through a threshold preprocessing and a subsequent morphological operation. Based on the set of detected seed points, a statistics-based region growing is applied. Finally, results are obtained by setting conservative parameters. A heuristic decision method is then used to obtain the desired result automatically because parameters in region growing vary in different patients, and the segmentation requires full automation. The experiments are carried out on a dataset that includes eight-patient multivendor cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA volume data. The DICE similarity index, mean distance, and Hausdorff distance metrics are employed to compare the proposed algorithm with two state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is capable of performing complete, robust, and accurate extraction of coronary arteries.

  16. Intravenous drug abuse and tricuspid valve endocarditis: Growing trends in the Middle East Gulf region (United States)

    Panduranga, Prashanth; Al-Abri, Seif; Al-Lawati, Jawad


    Traditionally, tricuspid valve endocarditis is uncommon in the Middle East region. However, recent global data indicate growing trends in the use of illicit drug abuse, specifically injectable heroin, in the Middle East Gulf region. The presence of many transit port services in the Middle East Gulf States has led to smuggling of substance abuse drugs in the region. The Middle East Gulf States, currently a transit market, are also becoming a growing consumer market in view of the increased substance abuse in the youth. However, there is a paucity of data with respect to the prevalence or incidence of tricuspid valve endocarditis in the region, probably due to underdiagnosis or underreporting. A high index of suspicion of tricuspid valve endocarditis is essential in patients with a history of intravenous drug abuse. This article reviews the epidemiology of illicit drug abuse in the Middle East Gulf region, as well as the diagnosis and treatment of tricuspid valve endocarditis, and calls for all physicians in the region to be vigilant while dealing with intravenous drug abuse. PMID:24829628

  17. A dynamic cellular vertex model of growing epithelial tissues (United States)

    Lin, Shao-Zhen; Li, Bo; Feng, Xi-Qiao


    Intercellular interactions play a significant role in a wide range of biological functions and processes at both the cellular and tissue scales, for example, embryogenesis, organogenesis, and cancer invasion. In this paper, a dynamic cellular vertex model is presented to study the morphomechanics of a growing epithelial monolayer. The regulating role of stresses in soft tissue growth is revealed. It is found that the cells originating from the same parent cell in the monolayer can orchestrate into clustering patterns as the tissue grows. Collective cell migration exhibits a feature of spatial correlation across multiple cells. Dynamic intercellular interactions can engender a variety of distinct tissue behaviors in a social context. Uniform cell proliferation may render high and heterogeneous residual compressive stresses, while stress-regulated proliferation can effectively release the stresses, reducing the stress heterogeneity in the tissue. The results highlight the critical role of mechanical factors in the growth and morphogenesis of epithelial tissues and help understand the development and invasion of epithelial tumors.

  18. Mathematical modeling of dormant cell formation in growing biofilm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotaro eChihara


    Full Text Available Understanding the dynamics of dormant cells in microbial biofilms, in which the bacteria are embedded in extracellular matrix, is important for developing successful antibiotic therapies against pathogenic bacteria. Although some of the molecular mechanisms leading to bacterial persistence have been speculated in planktonic bacterial cell, how dormant cells emerge in the biofilms of pathogenic bacteria such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa remains unclear. The present study proposes four hypotheses of dormant cell formation; stochastic process, nutrient-dependent, oxygen-dependent, and time-dependent processes. These hypotheses were implemented into a three-dimensional individual-based model of biofilm formation. Numerical simulations of the different mechanisms yielded qualitatively different spatiotemporal distributions of dormant cells in the growing biofilm. Based on these simulation results, we discuss what kinds of experimental studies are effective for discriminating dormant cell formation mechanisms in biofilms.

  19. Mathematical modeling of dormant cell formation in growing biofilm. (United States)

    Chihara, Kotaro; Matsumoto, Shinya; Kagawa, Yuki; Tsuneda, Satoshi


    Understanding the dynamics of dormant cells in microbial biofilms, in which the bacteria are embedded in extracellular matrix, is important for developing successful antibiotic therapies against pathogenic bacteria. Although some of the molecular mechanisms leading to bacterial persistence have been speculated in planktonic bacterial cell, how dormant cells emerge in the biofilms of pathogenic bacteria such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa remains unclear. The present study proposes four hypotheses of dormant cell formation; stochastic process, nutrient-dependent, oxygen-dependent, and time-dependent processes. These hypotheses were implemented into a three-dimensional individual-based model of biofilm formation. Numerical simulations of the different mechanisms yielded qualitatively different spatiotemporal distributions of dormant cells in the growing biofilm. Based on these simulation results, we discuss what kinds of experimental studies are effective for discriminating dormant cell formation mechanisms in biofilms.

  20. Development and characterization of an anthropomorphic breast software phantom based upon region-growing algorithm (United States)

    Bakic, Predrag R.; Zhang, Cuiping; Maidment, Andrew D. A.


    Purpose: We present a novel algorithm for computer simulation of breast anatomy for generation of anthropomorphic software breast phantoms. A realistic breast simulation is necessary for preclinical validation of volumetric imaging modalities.Methods: The anthropomorphic software breast phantom simulates the skin, regions of adipose and fibroglandular tissue, and the matrix of Cooper’s ligaments and adipose compartments. The adipose compartments are simulated using a seeded region-growing algorithm; compartments are grown from a set of seed points with specific orientation and growing speed. The resulting adipose compartments vary in shape and size similar to real breasts; the adipose region has a compact coverage by adipose compartments of various sizes, while the fibroglandular region has fewer, more widely separated adipose compartments. Simulation parameters can be selected to cover the breadth of variations in breast anatomy observed clinically.Results: When simulating breasts of the same glandularity with different numbers of adipose compartments, the average compartment volume was proportional to the phantom size and inversely proportional to the number of simulated compartments. The use of the software phantom in clinical image simulation is illustrated by synthetic digital breast tomosynthesis images of the phantom. The proposed phantom design was capable of simulating breasts of different size, glandularity, and adipose compartment distribution. The region-growing approach allowed us to simulate adipose compartments with various size and shape. Qualitatively, simulated x-ray projections of the phantoms, generated using the proposed algorithm, have a more realistic appearance compared to previous versions of the phantom.Conclusions: A new algorithm for computer simulation of breast anatomy has been proposed that improved the realism of the anthropomorphic software breast phantom. PMID:21815391

  1. Nucleus and cytoplasm segmentation in microscopic images using K-means clustering and region growing. (United States)

    Sarrafzadeh, Omid; Dehnavi, Alireza Mehri


    Segmentation of leukocytes acts as the foundation for all automated image-based hematological disease recognition systems. Most of the time, hematologists are interested in evaluation of white blood cells only. Digital image processing techniques can help them in their analysis and diagnosis. The main objective of this paper is to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment them into their two dominant elements, nucleus and cytoplasm. The segmentation is conducted using two stages of applying K-means clustering. First, the nuclei are segmented using K-means clustering. Then, a proposed method based on region growing is applied to separate the connected nuclei. Next, the nuclei are subtracted from the original image. Finally, the cytoplasm is segmented using the second stage of K-means clustering. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to extract the nucleus and cytoplasm regions accurately and works well even though there is no significant contrast between the components in the image. In this paper, a method based on K-means clustering and region growing is proposed in order to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment its components, the nucleus and the cytoplasm. As region growing step of the algorithm relies on the information of edges, it will not able to separate the connected nuclei more accurately in poor edges and it requires at least a weak edge to exist between the nuclei. The nucleus and cytoplasm segments of a leukocyte can be used for feature extraction and classification which leads to automated leukemia detection.

  2. The Sabethines of Northern Andean Coffee-Growing Regions of Colombia. (United States)

    Suaza-Vasco, Juan; López-Rubio, Andrés; Galeano, Juan; Uribe, Sandra; Vélez, Iván; Porter, Charles


    Sampling for sabethine mosquitoes occurred intermittently from September 2007 to April 2013 in 17 municipalities, located in 5 departments (divisions) in the northern Andean coffee-growing regions of Colombia. Of the 9 genera within the Sabethini tribe known to occur in the Neotropical region, 6 were encountered including 15 species: Jonhbelkinia ulopus, Limatus durhamii, Sabethes ignotus, Sa. luxodens, Sa. undosus, Shannoniana fluviatilis, Trichoprosopon compressum, Tr. digitatum, Tr. evansae, Tr. pallidiventer s.l., Tr. pallidiventer s.s., Wyeomyia arthrostigma, Wy. oblita, Wy. ulocoma, and Wy. undulata. The species Sa. luxodens and Wy. undulata constitute new records for Colombia. These records broaden the knowledge of this important group that includes some important species related to the arbovirus transmission. Records are from the northern Colombian Andes, a region noted for coffee cultivation and ecotourism.

  3. Segmentation of Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Infection Using Modified Automatic Seeded Region Growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordin Abdul


    Full Text Available Abstract In the image segmentation process of positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET/CT imaging, previous works used information in CT only for segmenting the image without utilizing the information that can be provided by PET. This paper proposes to utilize the hot spot values in PET to guide the segmentation in CT, in automatic image segmentation using seeded region growing (SRG technique. This automatic segmentation routine can be used as part of automatic diagnostic tools. In addition to the original initial seed selection using hot spot values in PET, this paper also introduces a new SRG growing criterion, the sliding windows. Fourteen images of patients having extrapulmonary tuberculosis have been examined using the above-mentioned method. To evaluate the performance of the modified SRG, three fidelity criteria are measured: percentage of under-segmentation area, percentage of over-segmentation area, and average time consumption. In terms of the under-segmentation percentage, SRG with average of the region growing criterion shows the least error percentage (51.85%. Meanwhile, SRG with local averaging and variance yielded the best results (2.67% for the over-segmentation percentage. In terms of the time complexity, the modified SRG with local averaging and variance growing criterion shows the best performance with 5.273 s average execution time. The results indicate that the proposed methods yield fairly good performance in terms of the over- and under-segmentation area. The results also demonstrated that the hot spot values in PET can be used to guide the automatic segmentation in CT image.

  4. Segmentasi Pembuluh Darah Retina Pada Citra Fundus Menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding Dan Region Growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deni Sutaji


    Full Text Available AbstrakSegmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina menjadi hal yang substansial dalam dunia kedokteran, karena dapat digunakan untuk mendeteksi penyakit, seperti: diabetic retinopathy, hypertension, dan cardiovascular. Dokter membutuhkan waktu sekitar dua jam untuk mendeteksi pembuluh darah retina, sehingga diperlukan metode yang dapat membantu screening agar lebih cepat.Penelitian sebelumnya mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah yang sensitif terhadap variasi ukuran lebar pembuluh darah namun masih terjadi over-segmentasi pada area patologi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan metode segmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina yang dapat mengurangi over-segmentasi pada area patologi menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding dan Region Growing.Metode yang diusulkan terdiri dari 3 tahap, yaitu segmentasi pembuluh darah utama, deteksi area patologi dan segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah utama menggunakan high-pass filtering dan tophat reconstruction pada kanal hijau citra yang sudah diperbaiki kontrasnya sehingga lebih jelas perbedaan antara pembuluh darah dan background. Tahap deteksi area patologi menggunakan metode Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis menggunakan Region Growing berdasarkan informasi label pembuluh darah utama dan label area patologi. Hasil segmentasi pembuluh darah utama dan pembuluh darah tipis kemudian digabungkan sehingga menjadi keluaran sistem berupa citra biner pembuluh darah. Berdasarkan hasil uji coba, metode ini mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah retina dengan baik pada citra fundus DRIVE, yaitu dengan akurasi rata-rata 95.25% dan nilai Area Under Curve (AUC pada kurva Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC sebesar 74.28%.                           Kata Kunci: citra fundus retina, gradient based adaptive thresholding, patologi, pembuluh darah retina, region growing

  5. Where is my wine from? - A global exposure database for wineries and wine growing regions (United States)

    Daniell, James E.; Daniell, Trevor M.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, Katherine A.; Burford, Robert


    The production of a global winery and wine database is a great undertaking and was required for the evaluation of winery risk in various locations (see NH ECS Lecture MH42/NH). The following study detailed a country wide study of wineries in 15 major wine growing locations globally in order to evaluate the ability of using existing information to detail the risk properties of the wine growing regions. In addition parameters such as the winery types, grape types, slopes, buildings, hazard properties and land use were surveyed. In terms of the winery locations, point-based as well as spatial land-use disaggregated polygons were used. For grape production, national and winery region data was aggregated from existing sources in each country. The value and type were assessed. For the slopes, global and regional DEMs such as ALOS, SRTM and EU-DEM were examined and converted within GIS envrionments. Building level information was often difficult to establish where OSM data was lacking (OpenStreetMap). Hazard parameters such as earthquake ground motion probability, weather, wind speeds, changing grape types, seasonality as well as the variability within seasons were collected with the variability being key to showing an increase or decrease in quality. Tools that were used can be applied to other exposure datasets; and shows a methodology to aggregate exposure information with respect to industries as well as other sectors using open data.

  6. Region-growing technique adapted to precise microcalcification characterization in mammography (United States)

    Darboux, Michel; Dinten, Jean-Marc; Nicolas, Eric


    The early detection of breast cancer is essential for increasing the survival rate of the disease. Today, mammography is the only breast screening technique capable of detecting breast cancer at a very early stage. The presence of a breast tumor is indicated by some features on the mammogram. One sign of malignancy is the presence of clusters of fine, granular microcalcifications. We present here a three-step method for detecting and characterizing these microcalcifications. We begin with the detection of potential candidates. The aim of this first step is to detect all the pixels that could be a microcalcification. Then we focus on our specific region growing technique which provides an accurate extraction of the shape of the region corresponding to each detected growing technique which provides an accurate extraction of the shape of the region corresponding to each detected seed. This second step is essential because microcalcifications shape is a very important feature for the diagnosis. It is then possible to determine precise parameters to characterize these microcalcifications. This three-step method has been evaluated on a set of images form the mammographic image analysis society database.

  7. Image segmentation by iterative parallel region growing with application to data compression and image analysis (United States)

    Tilton, James C.


    Image segmentation can be a key step in data compression and image analysis. However, the segmentation results produced by most previous approaches to region growing are suspect because they depend on the order in which portions of the image are processed. An iterative parallel segmentation algorithm avoids this problem by performing globally best merges first. Such a segmentation approach, and two implementations of the approach on NASA's Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) are described. Application of the segmentation approach to data compression and image analysis is then described, and results of such application are given for a LANDSAT Thematic Mapper image.

  8. The growing challenges of vector-borne diseases to regionally-aligned forces. (United States)

    Robert, Leon L; Debboun, Mustapha


    The long-term strategic focus of US foreign policy has pivoted to the Pacific, but tensions in the Middle East require constant attention in the present. As our current role in Afghanistan diminishes, we must seize the opportunity to refocus on the new priority of regionally-aligned forces. The short-term reality requires first reestablishing core warfighting competencies of a smaller Army and then building the capacity of forces focused on regional alignment. The continuing threat of vector-borne and other infectious diseases will present growing challenges to US forces focused on regional alignment and engagement. Greater understanding of these threats, host nation vulnerabilities and capabilities, and the regional presence of international and nongovernmental organizations will enable US forces to respond and engage more effectively and appropriately to accomplish assigned missions and future contingencies. Effective vector surveillance and control has a longstanding and proven record of preventing, reducing, and eliminating vector-borne diseases and must remain a focus of regionally-aligned forces. Operational readiness of armed forces continues to rely heavily on vector surveillance and control, and on personal protection strategies. Regionally-aligned forces must also work closely with the US Department of State and US Agency for International Development, international governments, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and private organizations operating in the region and know how to effectively interact with these diverse organizations. In addition, a working knowledge of a host country's public health policy, capabilities and economic realities will be essential. Teamwork with previously unfamiliar groups and organizations will be an essential component of working in regional environments and can present unfamiliar tasks for traditionally-trained military units.

  9. A region growing technique adapted to precise micro calcification characterization in mammography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darboux, M.; Dinten, J.M.; Nicolas, E.


    To-day, mammography is the only breast screening technique capable of detecting breast cancer at a very early stage. The presence of a breast tumor is indicated by some features on the mammogram. One sign of malignancy is the presence of clusters of fine, granular micro-calcifications. We present here a new three-step method for detecting and characterizing these micro-calcifications. We design with the detection of potential candidates (`seeds`). The aim of this first step is to detect all the pixels be a micro-calcification. Then we focus on our specific region growing technique which provides an accurate extraction of the shape of the region corresponding to each detected seed. This second step is essential because micro-calcifications shape is a very important feature for the diagnosis. It is then possible to determine precise parameters to characterize these micro-calcifications. (authors). 4 refs.

  10. Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 1. Model description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.


    A dynamic mechanistic model was developed for growing and fattening pigs. The aim of the model was to predict growth rate and the chemical and anatomical body compositions from the digestible nutrient intake of gilts (20-105 kg live weight). The model represents the partitioning of digestible

  11. Geographically Sourcing Cocaine’s Origin - Delineation of the Nineteen Major Coca Growing Regions in South America (United States)

    Mallette, Jennifer R.; Casale, John F.; Jordan, James; Morello, David R.; Beyer, Paul M.


    Previously, geo-sourcing to five major coca growing regions within South America was accomplished. However, the expansion of coca cultivation throughout South America made sub-regional origin determinations increasingly difficult. The former methodology was recently enhanced with additional stable isotope analyses (2H and 18O) to fully characterize cocaine due to the varying environmental conditions in which the coca was grown. An improved data analysis method was implemented with the combination of machine learning and multivariate statistical analysis methods to provide further partitioning between growing regions. Here, we show how the combination of trace cocaine alkaloids, stable isotopes, and multivariate statistical analyses can be used to classify illicit cocaine as originating from one of 19 growing regions within South America. The data obtained through this approach can be used to describe current coca cultivation and production trends, highlight trafficking routes, as well as identify new coca growing regions.

  12. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn


    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusse...

  13. Distributions of Salmonella Subtypes Differ between Two U.S. Produce-Growing Regions (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin


    Salmonella accounts for approximately 50% of produce-associated outbreaks in the United States, several of which have been traced back to contamination in the produce production environment. To quantify Salmonella diversity and aid in identification of Salmonella contamination sources, we characterized Salmonella isolates from two geographically diverse produce-growing regions in the United States. Initially, we characterized the Salmonella serotype and subtype diversity associated with 1,677 samples collected from 33 produce farms in New York State (NYS). Among these 1,677 samples, 74 were Salmonella positive, yielding 80 unique isolates (from 147 total isolates), which represented 14 serovars and 23 different pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. To explore regional Salmonella diversity associated with production environments, we collected a smaller set of samples (n = 65) from South Florida (SFL) production environments and compared the Salmonella diversity associated with these samples with the diversity found among NYS production environments. Among these 65 samples, 23 were Salmonella positive, yielding 32 unique isolates (from 81 total isolates), which represented 11 serovars and 17 different PFGE types. The most common serovars isolated in NYS were Salmonella enterica serovars Newport, Cerro, and Thompson, while common serovars isolated in SFL were Salmonella serovars Saphra and Newport and S. enterica subsp. diarizonae serovar 50:r:z. High PFGE type diversity (Simpson's diversity index, 0.90 ± 0.02) was observed among Salmonella isolates across both regions; only three PFGE types were shared between the two regions. The probability of three or fewer shared PFGE types was Salmonella isolates were considerably different between the two sampled regions. These findings suggest the potential for PFGE-based source tracking of Salmonella in production environments. PMID:24747908


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The article contributes to the growing strand of the literature on the scientific mobility and migration in the European Union (EU and the Eastern Partnership. The paper provides the quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits of ‘smart’ labour migration in the Eastern Partnership (EaP countries (particularly, Ukraine, explores the potential of future new rules for the mobility within the EU-EaP, and proposes some policy recommendations to enhance the benefits stemming from such flows. One of the rigorous idea – to provide an explanation whether the scientific migration and mobility, and remittances impact on economic development in the donor and recipient states, and, in particular, how important it is as a resource for the EaP enhancing. The convergence effect of scientific migration in the EU and the Eastern Partnership region is considered by means of calculative assessment.

  15. Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 2. Model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.


    The objective of the present paper was to evaluate a dynamic mechanistic model for growing and fattening pigs presented in a companion paper. The model predicted the rate of protein and fat deposition (chemical composition), rate of tissue deposition (anatomical composition) and performance of pigs

  16. Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Climate change offers new opportunities for Finnish field crop production, which is currently limited by the short growing season. A warmer climate will extend the thermal growing season and the physiologically effective part of it. Winters will also become milder, enabling introduction of winter-sown crops to a greater extent than is possible today. With this study we aim to characterise the likely regional differences in capacity to grow different seed producing crops. Prolongation of the Finnish growing season was estimated using a 0.5º latitude × 0.5º longitude gridded dataset from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dataset comprised an average estimate from 19 global climate models of the response of Finnish climate to low (B1 and high (A2 scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for 30-year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Growing season temperature sums that suit crop growth and are agronomically feasible in Finland are anticipated to increase by some 140 °Cd by 2025, 300 °Cd by 2055 and 470 °Cd by 2085 in scenario A2, when averaged over regions, and earlier sowing is expected to take place, but not later harvests. Accordingly, the extent of cultivable areas for the commonly grown major and minor crops will increase considerably. Due to the higher base temperature requirement for maize (Zea mays L. growth than for temperate crops, we estimate that silage maize could become a Finnish field crop for the most favourable growing regions only at the end of this century. Winters are getting milder, but it will take almost the whole century until winters such as those that are typical for southern Sweden and Denmark are experienced on a wide scale in Finland. It is possible that introduction of winter-sown crops (cereals and rapeseed will represent major risks due to fluctuating winter conditions, and this could delay their adaptation for many decades. Such risks need to be

  17. Automatic segmentation of meningioma from non-contrasted brain MRI integrating fuzzy clustering and region growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Chun-Chih


    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI has become important in brain tumor diagnosis. Using this modality, physicians can locate specific pathologies by analyzing differences in tissue character presented in different types of MR images. This paper uses an algorithm integrating fuzzy-c-mean (FCM and region growing techniques for automated tumor image segmentation from patients with menigioma. Only non-contrasted T1 and T2 -weighted MR images are included in the analysis. The study's aims are to correctly locate tumors in the images, and to detect those situated in the midline position of the brain. Methods The study used non-contrasted T1- and T2-weighted MR images from 29 patients with menigioma. After FCM clustering, 32 groups of images from each patient group were put through the region-growing procedure for pixels aggregation. Later, using knowledge-based information, the system selected tumor-containing images from these groups and merged them into one tumor image. An alternative semi-supervised method was added at this stage for comparison with the automatic method. Finally, the tumor image was optimized by a morphology operator. Results from automatic segmentation were compared to the "ground truth" (GT on a pixel level. Overall data were then evaluated using a quantified system. Results The quantified parameters, including the "percent match" (PM and "correlation ratio" (CR, suggested a high match between GT and the present study's system, as well as a fair level of correspondence. The results were compatible with those from other related studies. The system successfully detected all of the tumors situated at the midline of brain. Six cases failed in the automatic group. One also failed in the semi-supervised alternative. The remaining five cases presented noticeable edema inside the brain. In the 23 successful cases, the PM and CR values in the two groups were highly related. Conclusions Results indicated

  18. Application of nuclear technologies for growing of fruits which are of regional importance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultanova, Z.K.; Kharlamova, N.A.; Aidarkhanova, G.S.; Kudabayev, A.B.; Andropenkov, S.A.; Maltseva, R.M.


    Application of recent achievements of nuclear techniques in different applied branches develops in such main directions as radiation-biological technologies under stimulation of plants, sterilization, increasing of storage terms, disinfestation of foodstuff, forage, raw material of animal and vegetable origin, dressing, instruments, which cannot be exposed to thermal and chemical processing. It is of practical interest the irradiation of fruits and berries cuttings, which are of regional importance and been growing in nurseries. This method is already widely introduced into practice as one of efficient methods. Aim of research was the optimal irradiation dose selection for stimulation of currant cuttings gemmas before bedding out. The sorts of black and goldish currants were used in the experiment. Irradiation was conducted in 60 Co gamma-ray source. As the study materials the black currant cuttings of the 'Katyusha' sort and goldish currants of the sort 'Uzbekistanskaya' were used. For each variant 20 cuttings were prepared.Cuttings were bedded out. Drop irrigation was employed. In the sequel agricultural monitoring was carried out. The results of rooting and development of irradiated samples will be presented in report

  19. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot


    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  20. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.


    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  1. Mapping growing stock volume and forest live biomass: a case study of the Polissya region of Ukraine (United States)

    Bilous, Andrii; Myroniuk, Viktor; Holiaka, Dmytrii; Bilous, Svitlana; See, Linda; Schepaschenko, Dmitry


    Forest inventory and biomass mapping are important tasks that require inputs from multiple data sources. In this paper we implement two methods for the Ukrainian region of Polissya: random forest (RF) for tree species prediction and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) for growing stock volume and biomass mapping. We examined the suitability of the five-band RapidEye satellite image to predict the distribution of six tree species. The accuracy of RF is quite high: ~99% for forest/non-forest mask and 89% for tree species prediction. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable in the RF model improved the performance of tree species classification. We evaluated different distance metrics for the k-NN method, including Euclidean or Mahalanobis distance, most similar neighbor (MSN), gradient nearest neighbor, and independent component analysis. The MSN with the four nearest neighbors (k = 4) is the most precise (according to the root-mean-square deviation) for predicting forest attributes across the study area. The k-NN method allowed us to estimate growing stock volume with an accuracy of 3 m3 ha-1 and for live biomass of about 2 t ha-1 over the study area.

  2. Transcriptional Network growing Models using Motif-based Preferential Attachment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Farouk Abdelzaher


    Full Text Available Understanding relationships between architectural properties of gene-regulatory networks (GRNs has been one of the major goals in systems biology and bioinformatics, as it can provide insights into, e.g., disease dynamics and drug development. Such GRNs are characterized by their scale-free degree distributions and existence of network motifs--i.e., small-node subgraphs that occur more abundantly in GRNs than expected from chance alone. Because these transcriptional modules represent ``building blocks'' of complex networks and exhibit a wide range of functional and dynamical properties, they may contribute to the remarkable robustness and dynamical stability associated with the whole of GRNs. Here we developed network-construction models to better understand this relationship, which produce randomized GRNs by using transcriptional motifs as the fundamental growth unit in contrast to other methods that construct similar networks on a node-by-node basis. Because this model produces networks with a prescribed lower bound on the number of choice transcriptional motifs (e.g., downlinks, feed-forward loops, its fidelity to the motif distributions observed in model organisms represents an improvement over existing methods, which we validated by contrasting their resultant motif and degree distributions against existing network-growth models and data from the model organism of the bacterium Escherichia coli. These models may therefore serve as novel testbeds for further elucidating relationships between the topology of transcriptional motifs and network-wide dynamical properties.

  3. An osmotic model of the growing pollen tube.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian E Hill

    Full Text Available Pollen tube growth is central to the sexual reproduction of plants and is a longstanding model for cellular tip growth. For rapid tip growth, cell wall deposition and hardening must balance the rate of osmotic water uptake, and this involves the control of turgor pressure. Pressure contributes directly to both the driving force for water entry and tip expansion causing thinning of wall material. Understanding tip growth requires an analysis of the coordination of these processes and their regulation. Here we develop a quantitative physiological model which includes water entry by osmosis, the incorporation of cell wall material and the spreading of that material as a film at the tip. Parameters of the model have been determined from the literature and from measurements, by light, confocal and electron microscopy, together with results from experiments made on dye entry and plasmolysis in Lilium longiflorum. The model yields values of variables such as osmotic and turgor pressure, growth rates and wall thickness. The model and its predictive capacity were tested by comparing programmed simulations with experimental observations following perturbations of the growth medium. The model explains the role of turgor pressure and its observed constancy during oscillations; the stability of wall thickness under different conditions, without which the cell would burst; and some surprising properties such as the need for restricting osmotic permeability to a constant area near the tip, which was experimentally confirmed. To achieve both constancy of pressure and wall thickness under the range of conditions observed in steady-state growth the model reveals the need for a sensor that detects the driving potential for water entry and controls the deposition rate of wall material at the tip.

  4. An Osmotic Model of the Growing Pollen Tube (United States)

    Hill, Adrian E.; Shachar-Hill, Bruria; Skepper, Jeremy N.; Powell, Janet; Shachar-Hill, Yair


    Pollen tube growth is central to the sexual reproduction of plants and is a longstanding model for cellular tip growth. For rapid tip growth, cell wall deposition and hardening must balance the rate of osmotic water uptake, and this involves the control of turgor pressure. Pressure contributes directly to both the driving force for water entry and tip expansion causing thinning of wall material. Understanding tip growth requires an analysis of the coordination of these processes and their regulation. Here we develop a quantitative physiological model which includes water entry by osmosis, the incorporation of cell wall material and the spreading of that material as a film at the tip. Parameters of the model have been determined from the literature and from measurements, by light, confocal and electron microscopy, together with results from experiments made on dye entry and plasmolysis in Lilium longiflorum. The model yields values of variables such as osmotic and turgor pressure, growth rates and wall thickness. The model and its predictive capacity were tested by comparing programmed simulations with experimental observations following perturbations of the growth medium. The model explains the role of turgor pressure and its observed constancy during oscillations; the stability of wall thickness under different conditions, without which the cell would burst; and some surprising properties such as the need for restricting osmotic permeability to a constant area near the tip, which was experimentally confirmed. To achieve both constancy of pressure and wall thickness under the range of conditions observed in steady-state growth the model reveals the need for a sensor that detects the driving potential for water entry and controls the deposition rate of wall material at the tip. PMID:22615784

  5. The interaction between deepwater channel systems and growing thrusts and folds, toe-thrust region of the deepwater Niger Delta (United States)

    Jolly, B.; Lonergan, L.; Whittaker, A.


    Gravity-driven seaward-verging thrusts, landward-verging back-thrusts and associated folds often characterize the slope and deepwater settings of passive margins. These structures, found in the "toe-thrust" region of the system, exert a significant control on sediment gravity flows because they create and determine the location and configuration of sediment depocentres and transport systems. However, to fully understand the interaction between sediment gravity flows and seabed topography we need to evaluate and quantify the geomorphic response of sub-marine channels to faulting in an area where the degree of tectonic shortening can be well constrained. This study exploits 3D seismic data in the outer toe-thrust region of the deepwater Niger Delta to analyze the interaction between Plio-Pleistocene channel systems and actively growing folds and thrusts. We first mapped folds and thrusts from the seismic data and we used this data to reconstruct the history of fold growth. We then used the sea-bed seismic horizon to build a 50 m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the sea floor in Arc-GIS. From the DEM, we extracted channel long profiles across growing structures for both the current channel thalwegs and for the associated channel cut-and-fill sequences identified from the seismic data. We measured channel geometry at regular intervals along the channel length to evaluate system response to tectonic perturbation, and we used this data to help us approximate the down-system distribution of bed shear stress, and hence incision capacity. Initial results show that changes in submarine channel longitudinal profiles are directly correlated to underlying seabed thrusts and folds. Channels gradients are typically linear to slightly concave, and have an average gradient of 0.90. Actively growing thrusts are associated with a local steepening in channel gradient (up to 200% change), which typically extends 0.5 to 2 km upstream of the fault. Within these "knickzones

  6. A Model for Couples. How Two Can Grow Together (United States)

    Sherwood, John J.; Scherer, John J.


    The authors present a model which follows the development of a male-female relationship through dating, marriage and divorce. They discuss the factors that cause friction between a husband and wife and offer procedures for coping with such friction. (SE)

  7. Improved Cell Culture Method for Growing Contracting Skeletal Muscle Models (United States)

    Marquette, Michele L.; Sognier, Marguerite A.


    An improved method for culturing immature muscle cells (myoblasts) into a mature skeletal muscle overcomes some of the notable limitations of prior culture methods. The development of the method is a major advance in tissue engineering in that, for the first time, a cell-based model spontaneously fuses and differentiates into masses of highly aligned, contracting myotubes. This method enables (1) the construction of improved two-dimensional (monolayer) skeletal muscle test beds; (2) development of contracting three-dimensional tissue models; and (3) improved transplantable tissues for biomedical and regenerative medicine applications. With adaptation, this method also offers potential application for production of other tissue types (i.e., bone and cardiac) from corresponding precursor cells.

  8. Potential growing model for the standard carnation cv. Delphi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Ángel López M.


    Full Text Available The cut flower business requires exact synchronicity between product offer and demand in consumer countries. Having tools that help to improve this synchronicity through predictions or crop growth monitoring could provide an important advantage to program standards and corrective agronomic practices. At the Centro de Biotecnología Agropecuaria, SENA (SENA's Biotechnology, Agricultural and Livestock Center, located in Mosquera, Cundinamarca, a trial with standard carnation cv. Delphi grown under greenhouse conditions was carried out. The objective of this study was to build a simple model of dry matter (DM production and partition of on-carnation flower stems. The model was based on the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR MJ m-2 d-1 and temperature as exogenous variables and assumed no water or nutrient limitations or damage caused by pests, disease or weeds. In this model, the daily DM increase depended on the PAR, the light fraction intercepted by the foliage (F LINT and the light use efficiency (LUE g MJ-1. The LUE in the vegetative and reproductive stages reached values of 1.31 and 0.74 g MJ-1, respectively. The estimated extinction coefficient (k value corresponded to 0.53 and the maximum F LINT was between 0.79 and 0.82. Partitioning between the plant vegetative and reproductive stages was modeled based on the hypothesis that the partition is regulated by the source sink relationship. The estimated partition coefficient for the vegetative stage of the leaves was 0.63 and 0.37 for the stems. During the reproductive stage, the partitioning coefficients of leaves, stems and flower buds were 0.05, 0.74, and 0.21, respectively.

  9. Intraspecific Variability of Rotylenchulus reniformis from Cotton-growing Regions in the United States


    Agudelo, Paula; Robbins, Robert T.; Stewart, James McD.; Szalanski, Allen L.


    Reniform nematode (Rotylenchulus reniformis) is a major pest of cotton in the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to examine the variation of reniform nematode populations from cotton-growing locations in the United States where it is prevalent. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis were used to determine the variability of morphology in males and immature females. Reproduction indices of populations were measured on selected soybean and cotton ge...

  10. Application of growing nested Petri nets for modeling robotic systems operating under risk (United States)

    Sorokin, E. V.; Senkov, A. V.


    The paper studies the peculiarities of modeling robotic systems engaged in mining. Existing modeling mechanisms are considered, which are based on nested Petri nets, and a new formalism of growing Petri nets is presented that allows modeling robotic systems operating under risk. Modeling is provided both for the regular operation mode and for non-standard modes in which individual elements of the system can perform uncharacteristic functions. The example shows growing Petri nets that are used for modeling extraction of flat coal seams by a robotic system consisting of several different-type autonomous robots.

  11. From the Ground Up: Growing Entrepreneurship in the North Central Region. RRD 191 (United States)

    Emery, Mary


    More than 300 people in the North Central region added their voices to a discussion on the importance of entrepreneurship to rural community vitality, often traveling long distances to attend one of 11 listening sessions held throughout the region. Among those attending were local leaders, service providers, entrepreneurs, and educators. The…

  12. Inverse modeling and animation of growing single-stemmed trees at interactive rates (United States)

    S. Rudnick; L. Linsen; E.G. McPherson


    For city planning purposes, animations of growing trees of several species can be used to deduce which species may best fit a particular environment. The models used for the animation must conform to real measured data. We present an approach for inverse modeling to fit global growth parameters. The model comprises local production rules, which are iteratively and...

  13. A two-stage rule-constrained seedless region growing approach for mandibular body segmentation in MRI. (United States)

    Ji, Dong Xu; Foong, Kelvin Weng Chiong; Ong, Sim Heng


    Extraction of the mandible from 3D volumetric images is frequently required for surgical planning and evaluation. Image segmentation from MRI is more complex than CT due to lower bony signal-to-noise. An automated method to extract the human mandible body shape from magnetic resonance (MR) images of the head was developed and tested. Anonymous MR images data sets of the head from 12 subjects were subjected to a two-stage rule-constrained region growing approach to derive the shape of the body of the human mandible. An initial thresholding technique was applied followed by a 3D seedless region growing algorithm to detect a large portion of the trabecular bone (TB) regions of the mandible. This stage is followed with a rule-constrained 2D segmentation of each MR axial slice to merge the remaining portions of the TB regions with lower intensity levels. The two-stage approach was replicated to detect the cortical bone (CB) regions of the mandibular body. The TB and CB regions detected from the preceding steps were merged and subjected to a series of morphological processes for completion of the mandibular body region definition. Comparisons of the accuracy of segmentation between the two-stage approach, conventional region growing method, 3D level set method, and manual segmentation were made with Jaccard index, Dice index, and mean surface distance (MSD). The mean accuracy of the proposed method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of CRG is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of the 3D level set method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The proposed method shows improvement in accuracy over CRG and 3D level set. Accurate segmentation of the body of the human mandible from MR images is achieved with the

  14. Benefits of environmental conditions for growing coriander in Banat Region, Serbia. (United States)

    Acimovic, Milica; Oljaca, Snezana; Jacimovic, Goran; Drazic, Slobodan; Tasic, Slavoljub


    As one of the oldest multi-purpose plants (spice, aromatic, honey and medicinal), coriander is widespread across Europe. Although in Serbia there are favorable conditions for its growth and development, it is grown on relatively small areas. During both investigated years it took more than 1200 degrees C for transfer from vegetative to generative phase of development and over 2000 degrees C for it to be ready for harvesting. Coriander is a photophilic plant, which requires around 1000 hours of light from sowing to ripening.. As for humidity, coriander grows well, if there are more than 200 mm of rainfall during growing season. In 2009 and 2010, the experiment carried out at the experimental field in Ostojićevo (Banat, Vojvodina province, Serbia) monitored the effect of parameters mentioned above on development of coriander plants, seed yield and essential oil content. The average yields of 1866 kg ha(-1) (2009) and 2470 kg ha(-1) (2010), and relatively high content of essential oil (1.06% in both years) indicate a great potential of this plant species in Serbia, which is, however, greatly dependent on environmental conditions during year.

  15. Experimental observation and combined investigation of high-performance fusion of iron-region isotopes in optimal growing microbiological associations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vysotskii, Vladimir I.; Kornilova, Alla A.; Tashirev, Alexandr B.; Kornilova, Julia


    The report represents the results of combined (Moessbauer and mass-spectroscopy) examinations of isotopes transmutation process in growing microbiological associations in the iron-region of atomic mass (50 < A < 60). It was shown that the effectiveness of isotopes transmutation during the process of growth of microbiological associations at optimal conditions is by 10-20 times more than the effectiveness of the same transmutation in one-line' (clean) microbiological cultures. (author)

  16. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos


    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  17. PIEteR: a field specific production model for sugar beet growing.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.; Struik, P.C.


    PIEteR is a field-specific production model for sugar-beet growing. It can provide quantitative information about the technical, economic and environmental consequences of plant density, nitrogen application and harvest date. Its core is a growth model that simulates rates of emergence, development,

  18. Modelling the Hydraulic Behaviour of Growing Media with the Explicit Finite Volume Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carbone


    Full Text Available The increasing imperviousness of urban areas reduces the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban catchments and results in increased runoff. In the last few decades, several solutions and techniques have been proposed to prevent such impacts by restoring the hydrological cycle. A limiting factor in spreading the use of such systems is the lack of proper modelling tools for design, especially for the infiltration processes in a growing medium. In this research, a physically-based model, employing the explicit Finite Volume Method (FVM, is proposed for modelling infiltration into growing media. The model solves a modified version of the Richards equation using a formulation which takes into account the main characteristics of green infrastructure substrates. The proposed model was verified against the HYDRUS-1D software and the comparison of results confirmed the suitability of the proposed model for correctly describing the hydraulic behaviour of soil substrates.

  19. Aphasia induced by gliomas growing in the ventrolateral frontal region: assessment with diffusion MR tractography, functional MR imaging and neuropsychology. (United States)

    Bizzi, Alberto; Nava, Simone; Ferrè, Francesca; Castelli, Gianmarco; Aquino, Domenico; Ciaraffa, Francesca; Broggi, Giovanni; DiMeco, Francesco; Piacentini, Sylvie


    Lesions in the ventrolateral region of the dominant frontal lobe have been historically associated with aphasia. Recent imaging results suggest that frontal language regions extend beyond classically defined Broca's area to include the ventral precentral gyrus (VPCG) and the arcuate fasciculus (AF). Frontal gliomas offer a unique opportunity to identify structures that are essential for speech production. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the correlation between language deficits and lesion location in patients with gliomas. Nineteen patients with glioma and 10 healthy subjects were evaluated with diffusion tensor imaging magnetic resonance (MR) tractography, functional MR (verb generation task) and the Aachener Aphasie Test. Patients were divided into two groups according to lesion location with respect to the ventral precentral sulcus: (i) anterior (n=8) with glioma growing in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and underlying white matter; (ii) posterior (n=11) with glioma growing in the VPCG and underlying white matter. Virtual dissection of the AF, frontal intralobar tract, uncinate fasciculus (UF) and inferior frontal occipital fasciculus (IFOF) was performed with a deterministic approach. Seven posterior patients showed aphasia classified as conduction (4), Broca (1), transcortical motor (1) and an isolated deficit of semantic fluency; one anterior patient had transcortical mixed aphasia. All posterior patients had invasion of the VPCG, however only patients with aphasia had also lesion extension to the AF as demonstrated by tractography dissections. All patients with language deficits had high grade glioma. Groups did not differ regarding tumour volume. A functional pars opercularis was identified with functional MR imaging (fMRI) in 17 patients. Gliomas growing in the left VPCG are much more likely to cause speech deficits than gliomas infiltrating the IFG, including Broca's area. Lesion extension to the AF connecting frontal to parietal

  20. Resistance and resilience to changing climate of Tuscany and Valpolicella wine grape growing regions in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boselli Maurizio


    This study aims to provide an improved assessment of the practical adaptation options for the viticulture of Tuscany and of Valpolicella and what could be the strength and resilience to climate change of grapevine varieties in these areas. According to the models tested, Italian viticulture is able to adapt better than other countries to global warming, as the placing at various altitudes up in the high hills and mountains sets off the mechanism called resilience.

  1. Evaluation of Red Raspberry Cultivars Used for Breeding and Commercial Growing in the Baltic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lācis Gunārs


    Full Text Available The structure of raspberry cultivars and genetic resources in the Baltic countries have been influenced by the historical political situation in the 20th century and climatic conditions, especially winterhardiness. The genetic resources consist of some old European and American cultivars, but mostly of cultivars and hybrids bred in Russia. Currently, targeted breeding programmes are active only in Estonia and Latvia, which aim to develop winterhardy, disease-resistant cultivars, well adapted to the local climate. Therefore, parent material for hybridisation has been chosen from local advanced hybrids and introduced cultivars suitable to the regional climatic conditions. The aim of the study was to estimate the level of genetic diversity of Rubus germplasm and assess inter-specific and intra-specific relationships using phenotypical characterisation and molecular markers. Forty one Rubus genotypes were evaluated by 41 phenotypical traits and 15 previously described SSR markers. Both characterisation approaches discovered high correspondence with pedigree and a low level of diversity. A limited amount of the diversity of raspberry genetic material has been used in various breeding programmes, despite their broad geographical origin. The obtained results indicate the need for including local wild R. idaeus plant material into breeding programmes.

  2. Modeling phosphorus capture by plants growing in a multi-species riparian buffer (United States)

    The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore phosphorus (P) uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126-d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and smooth brome (Bromis inermis L...

  3. Uptake of uranium, thorium and radium isotopes by plants growing in dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region (Kazakhstan)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matveyeva, Ilona; Burkitbayev, Mukhambetkali [al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty (Kazakhstan). Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology; Jacimovic, Radojko [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Planinsek, Petra; Smodis, Borut [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Ljubljana (Slovenia)


    The activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in dominant species of plants (Xantium strumarium, Phragmites communis, Artemisia nitrosa and Artemisia serotina) growing on the territories contaminated by uranium industry of Kazakhstan (close to dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region) are presented. The obtained data showed the significant variations of activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in above ground parts. The concentrations of most of the investigated radionuclides in the root system are higher than in the aboveground parts; it can be explained by root barrier. It was found that the highest root barrier has Xantium strumarium, especially for uranium isotopes. The concentration ratios of radionuclides were calculated, and as the result it was found that the highest accumulation ability in the investigated region has Artemisia serotina.

  4. On the use of prior information in modelling metabolic utilization of energy in growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Fernández, José Adalberto


    Construction of models that provide a realistic representation of metabolic utilization of energy in growing animals tend to be over-parameterized because data generated from individual metabolic studies are often sparse. In the Bayesian framework prior information can enter the data analysis......) curves, resulting from a metabolism study on growing pigs of high genetic potential. A total of 17 crossbred pigs of three genders (barrows, boars and gilts) were used. Pigs were fed four diets based on barley, wheat and soybean meal supplemented with crystalline amino acids to meet Danish nutrient...

  5. Factors affecting distribution and abundance of Aspergillus section Nigri in vineyard soils from grapevine growing regions of Argentina. (United States)

    Barberis, Mauricio G; Giaj Merlera, Guillermo; Reynoso, Maria M; Chulze, Sofia N; Torres, Adriana M


    Aspergillus species belonging to section Nigri are the main fungi responsible for ochratoxin (OTA) contamination in grapes and wine. These species live as saprophytes in the superficial layer of the vineyard soil. We evaluated the biodiversity of potentially ochratoxigenic strains of Aspergillus section Nigri isolated from vineyard soils from different grapevine growing regions of Argentina. The isolates were characterized by classical and molecular methods. A multiple correspondence analysis was performed to identify the overall correlation of the Aspergillus group distribution with environmental conditions, geographical characteristics and vineyard practices. Aspergillus niger aggregate was the prevalent group (71%) and A. carbonarius made up only 2%. Species discrimination by species-specific primers showed that in A. niger aggregate 89% were A. tubingensis; 97% of the uniseriate were A. japonicus/A. aculeatus. Isolates belonging to these groups were unable to produce OTA. Our results clearly demonstrate a strong association between presence of A. carbonarius, high average temperatures and drip irrigation. Precipitation levels appear as a secondary factor, and altitude, vineyard age, predominant species, grape variety or total fungal count showed no association with A. carbonarius. We demonstrated a low prevalence of ochratoxigenic species in vineyard soil from the grape-growing regions of Argentina. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  6. An experimental model for studying claw lesions in growing female pigs


    Olsson, Anne-Charlotte; Svendsen, Jörgen; Botermans, Jos; Bergsten, Christer


    Problems with claw lesions leading to lameness are a growing concern in pig production. However, the causes and development of claw lesions are poorly understood and studies on prevention of claw lesion problems in gifts and sows are limited.This study tested a new experimental model which facilitates evaluation of the impact of different risk factors on pig feet lesions.The model consisted of using young gilts with a well-known background and promoting traumatic claw lesions for study purpos...

  7. Comparison of Insecticide Susceptibilities of Empoasca vitis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) from Three Main Tea-Growing Regions in China. (United States)

    Wei, Qi; Yu, Hua-Yang; Niu, Chun-Dong; Yao, Rong; Wu, Shun-Fan; Chen, Zhuo; Gao, Cong-Fen


    Empoasca vitis (Göthe) is an important insect pest in tea-growing areas of China, and chemical control is the main tactic for the management of this pest. Due to the pressure of increasing insecticide resistance and more stringent food safety regulations, development of sound IPM strategies for E. vitis is an urgent matter. This study comparatively evaluated four field populations of E. vitis from three different tea-growing regions in China for their susceptibilities to eight insecticides using a simple leaf-dip methodology. E. vitis was found to be most sensitive to indoxacarb (LC505 mg/liter) and sophocarpidine (LC50>95 mg/liter, a botanical pesticide) regardless of populations. Population (geographical) variations were higher for indoxacarb and imidacloprid than other compounds. Judging by the 95% fiducial limits of LC50 values, all populations had similar susceptibilities to chlorfenapyr, bifenthrin, and acetamiprid or imidacloprid. Correlation analysis suggested that chlorfenapyr and indoxacarb or isoprocarb may have a high risk of cross resistance. Considering potency (LC50) and maximum residual levels, chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin are good insecticide options followed by acetamiprid and indoxacarb. These results provide valuable information to intelligently select insecticides for IPM programs that are efficacious against E. vitis while also managing insecticide resistance and maximum residual levels for tea production in China. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  8. Heavy metal accumulation in leaves and beans of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) in major cacao growing regions in Peru. (United States)

    Arévalo-Gardini, Enrique; Arévalo-Hernández, Cesar O; Baligar, Virupax C; He, Zhenli L


    Peru is one of the leading exporters of organic cacao beans in the world. However, the accumulation of heavy metals in cacao beans represents a problem for cocoa bean export and chocolate quality. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution and accumulation of heavy metals in cacao leaves and cocoa beans in three major cacao growing regions of Peru. The study was conducted in cacao plantations of 10 to 15years old in three regions of Peru: North (Regions of Tumbes, Piura, Cajamarca, and Amazonas); Center (Regions of Huánuco and San Martin) and South (Junin and Cuzco). Samples of leaf and cacao beans were collected from 70 cacao plantations, and the nature of cacao clone or genotype sampled was recorded. The concentrations of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in leaves and beans were determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Overall, concentrations of heavy metals were below the critical limits; however, the presence of high levels of Cd in cacao grown in Amazonas, Piura, and Tumbes regions is of primary concern. Plantations of cacao with different cacao clones show differences in Cd accumulation both in leaves and cocoa beans. Therefore, it is promising to screen low Cd accumulator cacao genotypes for safe production of cacao on lightly to moderately Cd contaminated soils. Also, synergism between Zn and Cd present both in plant and soil suggests that Zn has a direct effect on Cd accumulation in cacao. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling mechanical interactions in growing populations of rod-shaped bacteria (United States)

    Winkle, James J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William


    Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular fluid flow lead to complex, changing arrangements of cells within the population. To rationally engineer and control the behavior of cell collectives we need theoretical and computational tools to understand their emergent spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we present an agent-based model that allows growing cells to detect and respond to mechanical interactions. Crucially, our model couples the dynamics of cell growth to the cell’s environment: Mechanical constraints can affect cellular growth rate and a cell may alter its behavior in response to these constraints. This coupling links the mechanical forces that influence cell growth and emergent behaviors in cell assemblies. We illustrate our approach by showing how mechanical interactions can impact the dynamics of bacterial collectives growing in microfluidic traps.

  10. Embedded Fibre Bragg Grating Sensor Response Model: Crack Growing Detection in Fibre Reinforced Plastic Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira, Gilmar Ferreira; Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; McGugan, Malcolm


    This article presents a novel method to simulate the sensor output response of a Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor when embedded in a host material (Composite material or adhesive), during a crack growing/damage event. A finite element model of the crack growth mechanisms was developed...... the applicability of this technique to more complicated structures, and to be used as a structural health monitoring design tool....

  11. Possibilities for Growing Switch-grass (Panicum virgatum as Second Generation Energy Crop in Dry-subhumid, Semiarid and Arid Regions of the Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia FALASCA


    Full Text Available Panicum virgatum (swich-grass is cultivated in some countries to obtain biomass used in the production of heat, fiber, electricity and second generation ethanol. Currently, in Argentina, this species is used for forage and as an ornamental. The aim of this work was to design an agroclimatic zoning model for swich-grass in Argentina, both for upland and lowland ecotypes, based on its bioclimatic requirements and employing a Geography Information System. The variables taken into consideration were: average temperature during growing period and reproductive period, frost free days and rainfall during growing season. This work demonstrated that an ample region of the country is agro-climatically suitable for the implantation of switch-grass in rainfed conditions or with complementary irrigation. The agroclimatic zoning for the upland ecotype shows that suitability reaches latitudes of up to 46ºS, while the lowland ecotype can be grown up to 40ºS. Thornthwaite's Moisture Index equal to zero was overlapped to the Argentinean agroclimatic zoning for upland and lowland types, to obtain the potential growing areas under dry-subhumid, semiarid to arid climates. The areas where switch-grass should be effectively tested are those categorized as optimal, very suitable, suitable, and very suitable/suitable with irrigation, located to the West of TMI equal to zero, which include dry-subhumid (0model can be applied to any region in the world, using the same bioclimatic indices and the classes delimited in this paper.

  12. Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers, leaves, and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwa Awad


    Conclusions: Essential oils from flowers, leaves and stems of R. epapposum growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia are considered as a rich source of monoterpenes which have biological activities.

  13. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  14. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  15. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

  16. Combining GIS with fuzzy multicriteria decision-making for landfill siting in a fast-growing urban region. (United States)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Parvathinathan, G; Breeden, Jeff B


    Landfill siting is a difficult, complex, tedious, and protracted process requiring evaluation of many different criteria. This paper presents a fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of landfill sites. It employs a two-stage analysis synergistically to form a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for waste management in a fast-growing urban region, south Texas. The first-stage analysis makes use of the thematic maps in Geographical information system (GIS) in conjunction with environmental, biophysical, ecological, and socioeconomic variables leading to support the second-stage analysis using the fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) as a tool. It differs from the conventional methods of integrating GIS with MCDM for landfill selection because the approach follows two sequential steps rather than a full-integrated scheme. The case study was made for the city of Harlingen in south Texas, which is rapidly evolving into a large urban area due to its vantage position near the US-Mexico borderlands. The purpose of GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of FMCDM method to identify the most suitable site using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to five chosen criteria. Research findings show that the proposed SDSS may aid in recognizing the pros and cons of potential areas for the localization of landfill sites in any study region. Based on initial GIS screening and final FMCDM assessment, "site 1" was selected as the most suitable site for the new landfill in the suburban area of the City of Harlingen. Sensitivity analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation where the decision weights associated with all criteria were varied to investigate their relative impacts on the rank ordering of the potential sites in the second stage. Despite variations of the decision weights within a range of 20%, it shows that "site 1

  17. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard


    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  18. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Short, W.


    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model--and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  19. Regions in Energy Market Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    This report explores the different options for spatial resolution of an energy market model and the advantages and disadvantages of models with fine spatial resolution. It examines different options for capturing spatial variations, considers the tradeoffs between them, and presents a few examples from one particular model that has been run at different levels of spatial resolution.

  20. Model for analyzing growth kinetics of a slowly growing Mycobacterium sp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrecht, R.S.; Carriere, J.F.; Collins, M.T.


    This report describes a simple method for quantifying viable mycobacteria and for determining generation time. We used statistical models and computer analysis of growth curves generated for the slowly growing mycobacterium Mycobacterium paratuberculosis under controlled conditions to derive a mathematical formula relating the dependent variable, growth, to the independent variables, log10 number of organisms in the inoculum (inoculum size) and incubation time. Growth was measured by a radiometric method which detects 14 CO 2 release during metabolism of a 14 C-labeled substrate. The radiometric method allowed for early detection of growth and detected as few as three viable bacteria. The coefficient of variation between culture vials inoculated with the same number of M. paratuberculosis was 0.083. Radiometric measurements were highly correlated to spectrophotometric and plate count methods for measuring growth (r = 0.962 and 0.992, respectively). The proportion of the total variability explained by the model in a goodness of fit test was 0.9994. Application of the model to broth cultures provided accurate estimates of the number of M. paratuberculosis (standard error = 0.21, log10 scale) and the growth rate (coefficient of variation, 0.03). Generation time was observed to be dependent upon the number of organisms in the inoculum. The model accurately described all phases of growth of M. paratuberculosis and can likely be applied to other slowly growing microorganisms

  1. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard


    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  2. Embedded Fibre Bragg Grating Sensor Response Model: Crack Growing Detection in Fibre Reinforced Plastic Materials (United States)

    Pereira, G.; Mikkelsen, L. P.; McGugan, M.


    This article presents a novel method to simulate the sensor output response of a Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor when embedded in a host material (Composite material or adhesive), during a crack growing/damage event. A finite element model of the crack growth mechanisms was developed, and different fracture modes were addressed. Then an output algorithm was developed to predict the sensor spectrum change during the different stages of the crack growing. Thus, it is possible to identify specific phenomenon that will only happen within the proximity of a crack, as compression field ahead the crack or non-uniform strain, and then identify the presence of such damage in the structure. Experimental tests were conducted in order to validate this concept and support the model. The FBG sensor response model was applied in a delamination of a Wind Turbine trailing edge, to demonstrate the applicability of this technique to more complicated structures, and to be used as a structural health monitoring design tool.

  3. Automatic navigation path generation based on two-phase adaptive region-growing algorithm for virtual angioscopy. (United States)

    Kim, Do-Yeon; Chung, Sung-Mo; Park, Jong-Won


    In this paper, we propose a fast and automated navigation path generation algorithm to visualize inside of carotid artery using MR angiography images. The carotid artery is one of the body regions not accessible by real optical probe but can be visualized with virtual endoscopy. By applying two-phase adaptive region-growing algorithm, the carotid artery segmentation is started at the initial seed, which is located on the initially thresholded binary image. This segmentation algorithm automatically detects the branch position with stack feature. Combining with a priori knowledge of anatomic structure of carotid artery, the detected branch position is used to separate the carotid artery into internal carotid artery and external carotid artery. A fly-through path is determined to automatically move the virtual camera based on the intersecting coordinates of two bisectors on the circumscribed quadrangle of segmented carotid artery. In consideration of the interactive rendering speed and the usability of standard graphic hardware, endoscopic view of carotid artery is generated by using surface rendering algorithm with perspective projection method. In addition, the endoscopic view is provided with ray casting algorithm for off-line navigation of carotid artery. Experiments have been conducted on both mathematical phantom and clinical data sets. This algorithm is more effective than key-framing and topological thinning method in terms of automated features and computing time. This algorithm is also applicable to generate the centerline of renal artery, coronary artery, and airway tree which has tree-like cylinder shape of organ structures in the medical imagery.

  4. Interconnected growing self-organizing maps for auditory and semantic acquisition modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengxue eCao


    Full Text Available Based on the incremental nature of knowledge acquisition, in this study we propose a growing self-organizing neural network approach for modeling the acquisition of auditory and semantic categories. We introduce an Interconnected Growing Self-Organizing Maps (I-GSOM algorithm, which takes associations between auditory information and semantic information into consideration, in this paper. Direct phonetic--semantic association is simulated in order to model the language acquisition in early phases, such as the babbling and imitation stages, in which no phonological representations exist. Based on the I-GSOM algorithm, we conducted experiments using paired acoustic and semantic training data. We use a cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training procedure to model the teaching and learning process between children and their communication partners; a reinforcing-by-link training procedure and a link-forgetting procedure are introduced to model the acquisition of associative relations between auditory and semantic information. Experimental results indicate that (1 I-GSOM has good ability to learn auditory and semantic categories presented within the training data; (2 clear auditory and semantic boundaries can be found in the network representation; (3 cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training leads to a detailed categorization as well as to a detailed clustering, while keeping the clusters that have already been learned and the network structure that has already been developed stable; and (4 reinforcing-by-link training leads to well-perceived auditory--semantic associations. Our I-GSOM model suggests that it is important to associate auditory information with semantic information during language acquisition. Despite its high level of abstraction, our I-GSOM approach can be interpreted as a biologically-inspired neurocomputational model.

  5. Prediction models for assessing anthocyanins in grape berries by fluorescence sensors: Dependence on cultivar, site and growing season. (United States)

    Pinelli, Patrizia; Romani, Annalisa; Fierini, Elisa; Agati, Giovanni


    Fluorescence sensors are useful tools for the non-destructive assessment of grape berry anthocyanins. The Multiplex (Mx) sensor here studied provides two anthocyanin indices: ANTH R  = log(1/Chl-fluorescence_R) and ANTH RG  = log(Chl-fluorescence_R/Chl-fluorescence_G), based on the chlorophyll (Chl) fluorescence excited with red (R) and green (G) light. These indices were calibrated against wet chemistry. The dependence of anthocyanin prediction models on cultivar, season and site was studied on four cultivars in two Italian regions during three consecutive years. The 2010 global model (all cultivars at both growing sites) gave relative prediction errors on anthocyanin content less than 14.1% (ANTH R ) and 19.0% (ANTH RG ). The ANTH RG was independent of season, maintaining a relative error of about 20% in both 2011 and 2012. In field applications of the calibrated Mx, it showed its ability to detect inter-plot and inter-season differences on both growing sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro


    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere......-wave coupling on the atmosphere as well as on wave parameters. The model components are the regional climate model RCA, and the third generation wave model WAM. Two different methods are used for the coupling, using the roughness length and only including the effect of growing sea, and using the wave age...... in climate models for a realistic description of processes over sea....

  7. NAVO NCOM Relocatable Model: Fukushima Regional Forecast (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Preliminary NCOM Relocatable 1km forecast model for Fukushima Region. USERS ARE REMINDED TO USE THE FUKUSHIMA 1KM NCOM DATA WITH CAUTION. THE MODEL WAS INITIATED ON...

  8. Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChengHe Guan


    Full Text Available The formation of ‘Urban Networks’ has become a wide-spread phenomenon around the world. In the study of metropolitan regions, there are competing or diverging views about management and control of environmental and land-use factors as well as about scales and arrangements of settlements. Especially in China, these matters alongside of regulatory aspects, infrastructure applications, and resource allocations, are important because of population concentrations and the overlapping of urban areas with other land resources. On the other hand, the increasing sophistication of models operating on iterative computational power and widely-available spatial information and analytical techniques make it possible to simulate and investigate the spatial distribution of urban territories at a regional scale. This research applies a scenario-based Cellular Automata model to a case study of the Changjiang Delta Region, which produces useful and predictive scenario-based projections within the region, using quantitative methods and baseline conditions that address issues of regional urban development. The contribution of the research includes the improvement of computer simulation of urban growth, the application of urban form and other indices to evaluate complex urban conditions, and a heightened understanding of the performance of an urban network in the Changjiang Delta Region composed of big, medium, and small-sized cities and towns.

  9. Structural phase transition in a growing network model with tunable member intimacy (United States)

    Kim, Kibum; Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Beom Jun


    Users of online communities become more intimate in time by writing posts and exchanging comments to each other. Although a certain level of intimacy among a group of members can be beneficial for the activity of the whole community, too strong intimacy among existing members can make newcomers feel alienated, driving them to leave the community. In this letter, we introduce a growing network model in which we systematically study the effect of member intimacy on the formation of connected component of the network. We introduce a parameter called clinginess and control how the member intimacy affects the communication activity. We observe that cumulative number of users who leave the community exhibits a transition-like behavior, similarly to the discontinuous transition in statistical mechanics models. Implication of our result in constructing a sustainable online community is also discussed.

  10. Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012? (United States)

    Blinova, Ilona; Chmielewski, Frank-Michael


    Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

  11. Abundance and Diversity of Wild Bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) Found in Lowbush Blueberry Growing Regions of Downeast Maine. (United States)

    Bushmann, Sara L; Drummond, Francis A


    Insect-mediated pollination is critical for lowbush blueberry (Ericaceae: Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton) fruit development. Past research shows a persistent presence of wild bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) providing pollination services even when commercial pollinators are present. We undertook the study to 1) provide a description of bee communities found in lowbush blueberry-growing regions, 2) identify field characteristics or farm management practices that influence those communities, 3) identify key wild bee pollinators that provide pollination services for the blueberry crop, and 4) identify non-crop plants found within the cropping system that provide forage for wild bees. During a 4-year period, we collected solitary and eusocial bees in over 40 fields during and after blueberry bloom, determining a management description for each field. We collected 4,474 solitary bees representing 124 species and 1,315 summer bumble bees representing nine species. No bumble bee species were previously unknown in Maine, yet we document seven solitary bee species new for the state. These include species of the genera Nomada, Lasioglossum, Calliopsis, and Augochloropsis. No field characteristic or farm management practice related to bee community structure, except bumble bee species richness was higher in certified organic fields. Pollen analysis determined scopal loads of 67-99% ericaceous pollen carried by five species of Andrena. Our data suggest two native ericaceous plants, Kalmia angustifolia L. and Gaylussacia baccata (Wangenheim), provide important alternative floral resources. We conclude that Maine blueberry croplands are populated with a species-rich bee community that fluctuates in time and space. We suggest growers develop and maintain wild bee forage and nest sites. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  12. Modelling and control of growing slugs in horizontal multiphase pipe flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steinar M. Elgsæter


    Full Text Available In this paper, the use of active control to restrict the length of growing slugs in horizontal pipelines is investigated. Specifically, the paper attempts to determine if such control can be attained with realistic measurements and actuators. Simulations in OLGA2000 show that a feedback controller can use measurements or estimates of slug length to control the growth of a slug in a horizontal pipeline by partially closing inlet or outlet chokes. A control-volume approach is used to develop a low-order model of inlet choke-slug growth dynamics based on mass- and impulse balances. The resulting model is a system of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations, which is suitable for observer-design. The tuned model is found to be in good agreement with experiments and OLGA2000-simulations. Linearizations of the model are found to be observable around realistic trajectories when rates and pressures at the inlet and outlet are measured. An extended Luenberger-observer is shown to give good estimates of slug length and -position in simulations even under model uncertainty.

  13. A Robust Productivity Model for Grapple Yarding in Fast-Growing Tree Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaan Engelbrecht


    Full Text Available New techniques have recently appeared that can extend the advantages of grapple yarding to fast-growing plantations. The most promising technique consists of an excavator-base un-guyed yarder equipped with new radio-controlled grapple carriages, fed by another excavator stationed on the cut-over. This system is very productive, avoids in-stand traffic, and removes operators from positions of high risk. This paper presents the results of a long-term study conducted on 12 different teams equipped with the new technology, operating in the fast-growing black wattle (Acacia mangium Willd plantations of Sarawak, Malaysia. Data were collected continuously for almost 8 months and represented 555 shifts, or over 55,000 cycles—each recorded individually. Production, utilization, and machine availability were estimated, respectively at: 63 m3 per productive machine hour (excluding all delays, 63% and 93%. Regression analysis of experimental data yielded a strong productivity forecast model that was highly significant, accounted for 50% of the total variability in the dataset and was validated with a non-significant error estimated at less than 1%. The figures reported in this study are especially robust, because they were obtained from a long-term study that covered multiple teams and accumulated an exceptionally large number of observations.

  14. Absorbable versus nonabsorbable mesh repair of congenital diaphragmatic hernias in a growing animal model. (United States)

    Gonzalez, Rodrigo; Hill, Sarah J; Mattar, Samer G; Lin, Edward; Ramshaw, Bruce J; Smith, C Daniel; Wulkan, Mark L


    The repair of large congenital diaphragmatic hernia frequently results in patch disruption and recurrence as patients grow in size. Absorbable meshes allow for ingrowth of endogenous tissue as they are degraded, providing a more natural and durable repair. The aim of this study was to compare the characteristics of the new diaphragmatic tissue between an absorbable biologic mesh and a nonabsorbable mesh for repairing diaphragmatic hernia in a growing animal model. The left hemi-diaphragm of twenty 2-month-old Yucatan pigs was nearly completely resected. Small intestinal submucosa (SIS; Cook Biotech, Lafayette, IN) and expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE; W.L. Gore & Associates, Flagstaff, AZ) were randomly assigned to cover the defect in 10 animals each, and were survived for 6 months. During necropsy, newly formed diaphragmatic tissue was evaluated and compared between the two groups. At necropsy, the animals had tripled their weight. Patch disruption and herniation occurred in 3 animals in the ePTFE group and none in the SIS group. The SIS mesh had better integration to the chest wall (2.8 ± 0.2 versus 1.3 ± 0.3), more muscle growth within the newly formed diaphragmatic tissue (1.9 ± 0.2 versus 0.4 ± 0.2), and less fibrotic tissue (2.1 ± 0.5 versus 3.4 ± 0.4) than ePTFE. There was no difference between SIS and ePTFE in terms of adhesion scores to the lung (2 ± 0.4 versus 2.4 ± 0.4) and liver (1.8 ± 0.3 versus 2.2 ± 0.5). SIS allows for tissue ingrowth from surrounding tissue as it degrades, providing a more durable repair with 30% less incidence of herniation in a porcine model. As the diaphragm grows, SIS resulted in a more natural repair of the defect with more tissue growth, better tissue integration, and a comparable adhesion formation to ePTFE.

  15. Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD) (United States)

    Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.


    Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

  16. European scale modeling of sulfur, oxidized nitrogen and photochemical oxidants. Model development and evaluation for the 1994 growing season

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden); Pleijel, K. [Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Goeteborg (Sweden)


    A chemical mechanism, including the relevant reactions leading to the production of ozone and other photochemical oxidants, has been implemented in the MATCH regional tracer transport/chemistry/deposition model. The aim has been to develop a model platform that can be used as a basis for a range of regional scale studies involving atmospheric chemistry, including assessment of the importance of different sources of pollutants to the levels of photochemical oxidants and air pollutant forecasting. Meteorological input data to the model were taken from archived output from the operational version of HIRLAM at SMHI. Evaluation of model calculations over Europe for a six month period in 1994 for a range of chemical components show good results considering known sources of error and uncertainties in input data and model formulation. With limited further work the system is sufficiently good to be applied for scenario studies and for regional scale air pollutant forecasts 42 refs, 24 figs, 17 tabs

  17. Growing skin: A computational model for skin expansion in reconstructive surgery (United States)

    Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Joseph Ploch, Christopher; Wong, Jonathan; Gosain, Arun K.; Kuhl, Ellen


    The goal of this manuscript is to establish a novel computational model for stretch-induced skin growth during tissue expansion. Tissue expansion is a common surgical procedure to grow extra skin for reconstructing birth defects, burn injuries, or cancerous breasts. To model skin growth within the framework of nonlinear continuum mechanics, we adopt the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into an elastic and a growth part. Within this concept, we characterize growth as an irreversible, stretch-driven, transversely isotropic process parameterized in terms of a single scalar-valued growth multiplier, the in-plane area growth. To discretize its evolution in time, we apply an unconditionally stable, implicit Euler backward scheme. To discretize it in space, we utilize the finite element method. For maximum algorithmic efficiency and optimal convergence, we suggest an inner Newton iteration to locally update the growth multiplier at each integration point. This iteration is embedded within an outer Newton iteration to globally update the deformation at each finite element node. To demonstrate the characteristic features of skin growth, we simulate the process of gradual tissue expander inflation. To visualize growth-induced residual stresses, we simulate a subsequent tissue expander deflation. In particular, we compare the spatio-temporal evolution of area growth, elastic strains, and residual stresses for four commonly available tissue expander geometries. We believe that predictive computational modeling can open new avenues in reconstructive surgery to rationalize and standardize clinical process parameters such as expander geometry, expander size, expander placement, and inflation timing.

  18. Modeling Phosphorus Capture by Plants Growing in a Multispecies Riparian Buffer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Kelly


    Full Text Available The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore P uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126 d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr., switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L., and smooth brome (Bromus inermis Leyss. Model estimates of P uptake from pure stands of smooth brome and cottonwood were 18.9 and 24.5 kg ha−1, respectively. Uptake estimates for mixed stands of trees and grasses were intermediate to pure stands. A single factor sensitivity analysis of parameters used to calculate P uptake for each cover type indicated that Imax, k, ro, and Lo were consistently the most responsive to changes ranging from −50% to +100%. Model exploration of P uptake as a function of soil depth interval indicated that uptake was highest in the 0–30 cm intervals, with values ranging from 85% of total for cottonwood to 56% for switchgrass.

  19. Volumetric analysis of pelvic hematomas after blunt trauma using semi-automated seeded region growing segmentation: a method validation study. (United States)

    Dreizin, David; Bodanapally, Uttam K; Neerchal, Nagaraj; Tirada, Nikki; Patlas, Michael; Herskovits, Edward


    Manually segmented traumatic pelvic hematoma volumes are strongly predictive of active bleeding at conventional angiography, but the method is time intensive, limiting its clinical applicability. We compared volumetric analysis using semi-automated region growing segmentation to manual segmentation and diameter-based size estimates in patients with pelvic hematomas after blunt pelvic trauma. A 14-patient cohort was selected in an anonymous randomized fashion from a dataset of patients with pelvic binders at MDCT, collected retrospectively as part of a HIPAA-compliant IRB-approved study from January 2008 to December 2013. To evaluate intermethod differences, one reader (R1) performed three volume measurements using the manual technique and three volume measurements using the semi-automated technique. To evaluate interobserver differences for semi-automated segmentation, a second reader (R2) performed three semi-automated measurements. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare differences in mean volumes. Time effort was also compared. Correlation between the two methods as well as two shorthand appraisals (greatest diameter, and the ABC/2 method for estimating ellipsoid volumes) was assessed with Spearman's rho (r). Intraobserver variability was lower for semi-automated compared to manual segmentation, with standard deviations ranging between ±5-32 mL and ±17-84 mL, respectively (p = 0.0003). There was no significant difference in mean volumes between the two readers' semi-automated measurements (p = 0.83); however, means were lower for the semi-automated compared with the manual technique (manual: mean and SD 309.6 ± 139 mL; R1 semi-auto: 229.6 ± 88.2 mL, p = 0.004; R2 semi-auto: 243.79 ± 99.7 mL, p = 0.021). Despite differences in means, the correlation between the two methods was very strong and highly significant (r = 0.91, p volumetric analysis of traumatic pelvic hematomas is potentially valuable at the point-of-care.

  20. The Regional Discharge Model development project


    Mäenpää, Tiina; Koivunen, Marita; Lukka, Heli; Wanne, Olli


    Purpose/Theory The goal of the Regional Discharge Model (RDM) project was to develop discharge models, avoid unnecessary hospitalization, and improves the transfer of the patient to the right follow-on treatment or care, utilizing the public and private sector, research and training as well as developing technologies like the Regional Health Information Systems (RHIS) in the Satakunta Hospital District area. The RDM project is part of the ‘Whole life at home’ initiative funded and administere...

  1. Stable isotope and trace element profiling combined with classification models to differentiate geographic growing origin for three fruits: effects of subregion and variety. (United States)

    Perez, Angela L; Smith, Brian W; Anderson, Kim A


    Classifications of geographic growing origin of three fresh fruits combining elemental profiles with various modeling approaches were determined. Elemental analysis (Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, P, V, and Zn) of strawberry, blueberry, and pear samples was performed using inductively coupled plasma argon atomic emission spectrometer. Bulk stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses in pear were performed using mass spectrometry as an alternative fingerprinting technique. Each fruit, strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa), blueberry (Vaccinium caesariense/corymbosum), and pear (Pyrus communis), was analyzed from two growing regions: Oregon vs Mexico, Chile, and Argentina, respectively. Principal component analysis and canonical discriminant analysis were used for data visualization. The data were modeled using linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, neural network, genetic neural network, and hierarchical tree models with successful classification ranging from 70 to 100% depending on commodity and model. Effects of Oregon subregional and variety classification were investigated with similar success rates.

  2. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.


    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  3. Modeling the cost and benefit of proteome regulation in a growing bacterial cell. (United States)

    Sharma, Pooja; Pandey, Parth Pratim; Jain, Sanjay


    Escherichia coli cells differentially regulate the production of metabolic and ribosomal proteins in order to stay close to an optimal growth rate in different environments, and exhibit the bacterial growth laws as a consequence. We present a simple mathematical model of a growing-dividing cell in which an internal dynamical mechanism regulates the allocation of proteomic resources between different protein sectors. The model allows an endogenous determination of the growth rate of the cell as a function of cellular and environmental parameters, and reproduces the bacterial growth laws. We use the model and its variants to study the balance between the cost and benefit of regulation. A cost is incurred because cellular resources are diverted to produce the regulatory apparatus. We show that there is a window of environments or a 'niche' in which the unregulated cell has a higher fitness than the regulated cell. Outside this niche there is a large space of constant and time varying environments in which regulation is an advantage. A knowledge of the 'niche boundaries' allows one to gain an intuitive understanding of the class of environments in which regulation is an advantage for the organism and which would therefore favour the evolution of regulation. The model allows us to determine the 'niche boundaries' as a function of cellular parameters such as the size of the burden of the regulatory apparatus. This class of models may be useful in elucidating various tradeoffs in cells and in making in-silico predictions relevant for synthetic biology. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  4. EURO-CORDEX regional climate models: Performance over Mediterranean region (United States)

    Stilinović, Tomislav; Güttler, Ivan; Srnec, Lidija; Branković, Čedo


    Regional climate models (RCMs) are high-resolution version of a global climate models (GCMs) designed to achieve simulations at horizontal resolutions relevant for human activities on local and regional spatial scales, and to simulate relevant processes in historical and potential future climate conditions. In this study, a set of experiments the EURO-CORDEX simulations are evaluated over the Mediterranean region. All simulations were made at the two horizontal resolutions (50 km and 12.5 km) and compared with gridded pan-European gridded dataset E-OBSv11 at the regular 0.25°×0.25° grid for the two periods (1989-2008 for the ERA-Interim-driven ensemble of simulations; 1971-2000 for the GCMs-driven ensemble of simulations). We will evaluate the impacts of (1) the boundary conditions, (2) different horizontal resolutions (0.44°/50 km vs. 0.11°/12.5 km), and (3) the impact of convective parametrization on systematic errors, specialy in case of the RegCM4 model extensively used at DHMZ. For each simulation commonly used evaluation metrics are applied. They include: (1) spatially-averaged differences between RCMs and observations, (2) the spatial 95 th percentiles of simulated and observed temperature and precipitation, (3) spatial correlation coefficients between models and observations, (4) the ratio of spatial standard deviations between simulated and observed fields, and (5) the Spearman rank correlations between simulated and observed time-series of spatially-averaged temperature and precipitation. As commonly found in other studies, the total precipitation in RCM simulations is often overestimated and spatial correlations are noticeably lower than for temperature. The results highlight that, the RegCM4 is able to capture the (observed) spatial variability of the Mediterranean temperature climate. This is indicated by high spatial correlations with values larger than 0.9 and values of normalized standard deviation below 1 for Mediterranean region. The results

  5. Comparison of global and regional ionospheric models (United States)

    Ranner, H.-P.; Krauss, S.; Stangl, G.


    Modelling of the Earth's ionosphere means the description of the variability of the vertical TEC (Total Electron Content) in dependence of geographic latitude and longitude, height, diurnal and seasonal variation as well as solar activity. Within the project GIOMO (next Generation near real-time IOnospheric MOdels) the objectives are the identification and consolidation of improved ionospheric modelling technologies. The global models Klobuchar (GPS) and NeQuick (currently in use by EGNOS, in future used by Galileo) are compared to the IGS (International GNSS Service) Final GIM (Global Ionospheric Map). Additionally a RIM (Regional Ionospheric Map) for Europe provided by CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) is investigated. Furthermore the OLG (Observatorium Lustbühel Graz) regional models are calculated for two test beds with different latitudes and extensions (Western Austria and the Aegean region). There are three different approaches, two RIMs are based on spherical harmonics calculated either from code or phase measurements and one RIM is based on a Taylor series expansion around a central point estimated from zero-difference observations. The benefits of regional models are the local flexibility using a dense network of GNSS stations. Near real-time parameters are provided within ten minutes after every clock hour. All models have been compared according to their general behavior, the ability to react upon extreme solar events and the robustness of estimation. A ranking of the different models showed a preference for the RIMs while the global models should be used within a fall-back strategy.

  6. Simple mass transport model for metal uptake by marine macroalgae growing at different rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, D.L.


    Although algae growing at different rates may exhibit different concentrations of a given metal, such differences in algal chemistry may or may not reflect actual effects of environmental growth factors on the kinetics of metal uptake. Published data on uptake of rubidium, cadmium, and manganese by the green seaweed Ulva fasciata Delile grown at different rates in open system sea water was interpreted using the model. Differences in exposure time to sea water of relatively old and relatively young thalli were responsible for significant decreases in algal rubidium and cadmium concentrations with increases in specific growth rate. The biomass-specific growth rates of uptake of these two metals did not vary with growth rate. Both algal concentrations and specific rates of uptake of manganese increase significantly with increasing growth rate, thus indicating a distinct link between the kinetics of manganese uptake and metabolic rate. Under some circumstances, seaweed bioassay coupled with an interpretive model may provide the only reasonable approach to the study of chemical uptake-growth phenomena. In practice, if the residence time of sea water in culture chambers is sufficiently low to preclude pseudo-closed system artifacts, differences in trace metal concentrations between input and output sea water may be difficult to detect. In the field and in situ experiments based on time-series monitoring of changes in the water chemistry would be technically difficult or perhaps impossible to perform. 13 references, 1 figure.

  7. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models. (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E


    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (p0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (phepatica infection risk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Energy model in regional energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mura, P.G.; Baccoli, R.; Carlini, U.; Innamorati, R.; Mariotti, S.


    In this report is presented a computational model for analysis of energy, materials and mass flux in a complex energy system, at regional scale level. Specifically is described a calculation model of electric power generation for emission forecasting of CO 2 , SO x , NO x , particulate matter, ashes, limestone, chalks [it

  9. Integrating remotely sensed leaf area index and leaf nitrogen accumulation with RiceGrow model based on particle swarm optimization algorithm for rice grain yield assessment (United States)

    Wang, Hang; Zhu, Yan; Li, Wenlong; Cao, Weixing; Tian, Yongchao


    A regional rice (Oryza sativa) grain yield prediction technique was proposed by integration of ground-based and spaceborne remote sensing (RS) data with the rice growth model (RiceGrow) through a new particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Based on an initialization/parameterization strategy (calibration), two agronomic indicators, leaf area index (LAI) and leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA) remotely sensed by field spectra and satellite images, were combined to serve as an external assimilation parameter and integrated with the RiceGrow model for inversion of three model management parameters, including sowing date, sowing rate, and nitrogen rate. Rice grain yield was then predicted by inputting these optimized parameters into the reinitialized model. PSO was used for the parameterization and regionalization of the integrated model and compared with the shuffled complex evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) optimization algorithm. The test results showed that LAI together with LNA as the integrated parameter performed better than each alone for crop model parameter initialization. PSO also performed better than SCE-UA in terms of running efficiency and assimilation results, indicating that PSO is a reliable optimization method for assimilating RS information and the crop growth model. The integrated model also had improved precision for predicting rice grain yield.

  10. Vascular histopathologic reaction to pulmonary artery banding in an in vivo growing porcine model. (United States)

    Nedorost, Lukáš; Uemura, Hideki; Furck, Anke; Saeed, Imran; Slavik, Zdenek; Kobr, Jiří; Tonar, Zbyněk


    Pulmonary artery banding (PAB) is used as a surgical palliation to reduce excessive pulmonary blood flow caused by congenital heart defects. Due to the lack of microscopic studies dealing with the tissue remodeling caused by contemporary PAB materials, this study aimed to assess histologic changes associated with PAB surgery by analyzing local tissue reaction to the presence of Gore-Tex strips fixed around the pulmonary artery. Gore-Tex strips were used for PAB in a growing porcine model. After 5 weeks, histologic samples with PAB (n = 5) were compared with healthy pulmonary arterial segments distal to the PAB or from a sham-treated animal (n = 1). Stereology was used to quantify the density of the vasa vasorum and the area fraction of elastin, smooth muscle actin, macrophages, and nervi vasorum within the pulmonary arterial wall. The null hypothesis stated that samples did not differ histopathologically from adjacent vascular segments or sham-treated samples. The PAB samples had a greater area fraction of macrophages, a lower amount of nervi vasorum, and a tendency toward decreased smooth muscle content compared with samples that had no PAB strips. There was no destruction of elastic membranes, no medionecrosis, no pronounced inflammatory infiltration or foreign body reaction, and no vasa vasorum deficiency after the PAB. All the histopathologic changes were limited to the banded vascular segment and did not affect distal parts of the pulmonary artery. The study results show the tissue reaction of palliative PAB and suggest that Gore-Tex strips used contemporarily for PAB do not cause severe local histologic damage to the banded segment of the pulmonary arterial wall after 5 weeks in a porcine PAB model.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senthil Kumar


    Full Text Available An efficient Autoseed Region Growing with Morphological Masking(ARGMM is imple-mented in this paper on the Lung CT Slice to segment the 'Lung Nodules',which may be the potential indicator for the Lung Cancer. The segmentation of lung nodules car-ried out in this paper through Multi-Thresholding, ARGMM and Level Set Evolution. ARGMM takes twice the time compared to Level Set, but still the number of suspected segmented nodules are doubled, which make sure that no potential cancerous nodules go unnoticed at the earlier stages of diagnosis. It is very important not to panic the patient by finding the presence of nodules from Lung CT scan. Only 40 percent of nod-ules can be cancerous. Hence, in this paper an efficient Shape and Texture analysis is computed to quantitatively describe the segmented lung nodules. The Frequency spectrum of the lung nodules is developed and its frequency domain features are com-puted. The Complete Local binary pattern of lung nodules is computed in this paper by constructing the combine histogram of Sign and Magnitude Local Binary Patterns. Lo-cal Configuration Pattern is also determined in this work for lung nodules to numeri-cally model the microscopic information of nodules pattern.

  12. Growth and Yield of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. Stands in Nyírség Growing Region (North-East Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Károly Rédei


    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: In Hungary the black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. can be considered as the most important fast-growing stand-forming exotic tree species. Due to its favourite growing technological characteristics as well as its wood utilization possibilities the present area occupied by black locust stands amounts to 460 thousand hectares. Of its growing districts Nyírség (North-East Hungary has a distinguished importance where the area of black locust stands is appr. 22 700 hectares. The Nyírség region can also be considered as one of the best black locust growing regions in the Carpathian basin. To determine their growth rate and yield as exact as possible a local numerical yield table has been constructed on the basis of surveys of the experimental plots established in pure, managed black locust stands. Material and Methods: The local black locust yield table was constructed from data gathered on 105 sampling plots with average area of 1 000 m2. The total area of the experimental plots was 9.295 ha. In the course of the stand surveys the key stand characteristics were measured, and then, on the basis of data collected, were calculated the average height, diameter (DBH, volume, basal area and stem number given separately for the main (remaining, secondary (removal and total stands per hectare. Results and Conclusion: Black locust yield table presented in this paper is the first local one in the history of the Hungarian black locust research. The programmable editing procedure allows extension and formal change of information content of the yield table according to different demands. This type of yield tables (standards somewhat reflects the local growing-technological (forest tending characteristics better way, on the other hand refer to the trend of quality and quantity changing of black locust stands growing in a given area.

  13. Python Program to Select HII Region Models (United States)

    Miller, Clare; Lamarche, Cody; Vishwas, Amit; Stacey, Gordon J.


    HII regions are areas of singly ionized Hydrogen formed by the ionizing radiaiton of upper main sequence stars. The infrared fine-structure line emissions, particularly Oxygen, Nitrogen, and Neon, can give important information about HII regions including gas temperature and density, elemental abundances, and the effective temperature of the stars that form them. The processes involved in calculating this information from observational data are complex. Models, such as those provided in Rubin 1984 and those produced by Cloudy (Ferland et al, 2013) enable one to extract physical parameters from observational data. However, the multitude of search parameters can make sifting through models tedious. I digitized Rubin's models and wrote a Python program that is able to take observed line ratios and their uncertainties and find the Rubin or Cloudy model that best matches the observational data. By creating a Python script that is user friendly and able to quickly sort through models with a high level of accuracy, this work increases efficiency and reduces human error in matching HII region models to observational data.

  14. Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers, leaves, and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia


    Marwa Awad; Abdelrhman Abdelwahab


    Objective: To evaluate the medicinal uses of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. (R. epapposum) growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia, through the chemical diversity of essential oils extracted from its flowers, leaves and stems. Methods: Aerial parts of R. epapposum were collected in April 2014. Air dried flowers, leaves, and stems were separately subjected to hydrodistillation in a Clevenger-type apparatus for 4 h to extract the essential oils. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry ana...

  15. Computer-aided detection of breast lesions in DCE-MRI using region growing based on fuzzy C-means clustering and vesselness filter (United States)

    B. Shokouhi, Shahriar; Fooladivanda, Aida; Ahmadinejad, Nasrin


    A computer-aided detection (CAD) system is introduced in this paper for detection of breast lesions in dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI). The proposed CAD system firstly compensates motion artifacts and segments the breast region. Then, the potential lesion voxels are detected and used as the initial seed points for the seeded region-growing algorithm. A new and robust region-growing algorithm incorporating with Fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering and vesselness filter is proposed to segment any potential lesion regions. Subsequently, the false positive detections are reduced by applying a discrimination step. This is based on 3D morphological characteristics of the potential lesion regions and kinetic features which are fed to the support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The performance of the proposed CAD system is evaluated using the free-response operating characteristic (FROC) curve. We introduce our collected dataset that includes 76 DCE-MRI studies, 63 malignant and 107 benign lesions. The prepared dataset has been used to verify the accuracy of the proposed CAD system. At 5.29 false positives per case, the CAD system accurately detects 94% of the breast lesions.

  16. Suitability analysis for rice growing sites using a multicriteria evaluation and GIS approach in great Mwea region, Kenya. (United States)

    Kihoro, Joseph; Bosco, Njoroge J; Murage, Hunja


    Land suitability analysis is a prerequisite to achieving optimum utilization of the available land resources. Lack of knowledge on best combination of factors that suit production of rice has contributed to the low production. The aim of this study was to develop a suitability map for rice crop based on physical and climatic factors of production using a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) & GIS approach. The study was carried out in Kirinyaga, Embu and Mberee counties in Kenya. Biophysical variables of soil, climate and topography were considered for suitability analysis. All data were stored in ArcGIS 9.3 environment and the factor maps were generated. For MCE, Pairwise Comparison Matrix was applied and the suitable areas for rice crop were generated and graduated. The current land cover map of the area was developed from a scanned survey map of the rice growing areas. According to the present land cover map, the rice cultivated area was 13,369 ha. Finally, we overlaid the land cover map with the suitability map to identify variances between the present and potential land use. The crop-land evaluation results of the present study showed that, 75% of total area currently being used was under highly suitable areas and 25% was under moderately suitable areas. The results showed that the potential area for rice growing is 86,364 ha and out of this only 12% is under rice cultivation. This research provided information at local level that could be used by farmers to select cropping patterns and suitability.

  17. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  18. Development of soil and terrain digital database for major food-growing regions of India for resource planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chandran, P.; Tiwary, P.; Bhattacharyya, T.; Mandal, C.; Prasad, J.; Ray, S.K.; Sarkar, D.; Pal, D.K.; Dijkshoorn, J.A.; Batjes, N.H.; Bindraban, P.S.; Thakre, S.


    Soil information system in SOTER (soil and terrain digital database) framework is developed for the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and black soil regions (BSR) of India with the help of information from 842 georeferenced soil profiles including morphological, physical and chemical properties of soils in

  19. Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, C.


    This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

  20. PIEteR : a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.


    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.

    PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly

  1. Feed-forward and generalized regression neural networks in modeling feeding behavior of pigs in the grow-finishing phase (United States)

    Feeding patterns in group-housed grow-finishing pigs have been investigated for use in management decisions, identifying sick animals, and determining genetic differences within a herd. Development of models to predict swine feeding behaviour has been limited due the large number of potential enviro...

  2. The growing season, but not the farming system, is a food safety risk determinant for leafy greens in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. (United States)

    Marine, Sasha C; Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M; Melendez, Meredith V; Kline, Wesley L; Oni, Ruth A; Walsh, Christopher S; Everts, Kathryne L; Buchanan, Robert L; Micallef, Shirley A


    Small- and medium-size farms in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States use varied agricultural practices to produce leafy greens during spring and fall, but the impact of preharvest practices on food safety risk remains unclear. To assess farm-level risk factors, bacterial indicators, Salmonella enterica, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) from 32 organic and conventional farms were analyzed. A total of 577 leafy greens, irrigation water, compost, field soil, and pond sediment samples were collected. Salmonella was recovered from 2.2% of leafy greens (n = 369) and 7.7% of sediment (n = 13) samples. There was an association between Salmonella recovery and growing season (fall versus spring) (P = 0.006) but not farming system (organic or conventional) (P = 0.920) or region (P = 0.991). No STEC was isolated. In all, 10% of samples were positive for E. coli: 6% of leafy greens, 18% of irrigation water, 10% of soil, 38% of sediment, and 27% of compost samples. Farming system was not a significant factor for levels of E. coli or aerobic mesophiles on leafy greens but was a significant factor for total coliforms (TC) (P organic farm samples. Growing season was a factor for aerobic mesophiles on leafy greens (P = 0.004), with higher levels in fall than in spring. Water source was a factor for all indicator bacteria (P factors contributing to microbial contamination on farms growing leafy greens. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  3. Modeling of regional warehouse network generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Pavel Vladimirovich


    Full Text Available One of the factors that has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation’s regions is the logistics infrastructure. It provides integrated transportation and distribution service of material flows. One of the main elements of logistics infrastructure is a storage infrastructure, which includes distribution center, distribution-and-sortout and sortout warehouses. It is the most expedient to place distribution center in the vicinity of the regional center. One of the tasks of the distribution network creation within the regions of the Russian Federation is to determine the location, capacity and number of stores. When determining regional network location of general purpose warehouses methodological approaches to solving the problems of location of production and non-production can be used which depend on various economic factors. The mathematical models for solving relevant problems are the deployment models. However, the existing models focus on the dimensionless power storage. The purpose of the given work is to develop a model to determine the optimal location of general-purpose warehouses on the Russian Federation area. At the first stage of the work, the authors assess the main economic indicators influencing the choice of the location of general purpose warehouses. An algorithm for solving the first stage, based on ABC, discriminant and cluster analysis were proposed by the authors in earlier papers. At the second stage the specific locations of general purpose warehouses and their power is chosen to provide the cost minimization for the construction and subsequent maintenance of warehouses and transportation heterogeneous products. In order to solve this problem the authors developed a mathematical model that takes into account the possibility of delivery in heterogeneous goods from suppliers and manufacturers in the distribution and storage sorting with specified set of capacities. The model allows

  4. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk. (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D


    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. High resolution synchrotron imaging of wheat root hairs growing in soil and image based modelling of phosphate uptake


    Keyes, Samuel; Daly, Keith R.; Gostling, Neil J.; Jones, Davey L.; Talboys, Peter; Pinzer, Bernd R.; Boardman, Richard; Sinclair, Ian; Marchant, Alan; Roose, Tiina


    Root hairs are known to be highly important for uptake of sparingly soluble nutrients, particularly in nutrient deficient soils. Development of increasingly sophisticated mathematical models has allowed uptake characteristics to be quantified. However, modelling has been constrained by a lack of methods for imaging live root hairs growing in real soils.We developed a plant growth protocol and used Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Tomographic Microscopy (SRXTM) to uncover the 3D interactions of roo...

  6. Comparison on Phenolic Compounds and Antioxidant Properties of Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot Wines from Four Wine Grape-Growing Regions in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Jiang


    Full Text Available The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·, cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC, superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05 with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

  7. Comparison on phenolic compounds and antioxidant properties of cabernet sauvignon and merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China. (United States)

    Jiang, Bao; Zhang, Zhen-Wen


    The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·), cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC), superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA) and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside) revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

  8. Conflict resolution in the zoning of eco-protected areas in fast-growing regions based on game theory. (United States)

    Lin, Jinyao; Li, Xia


    Zoning eco-protected areas is important for ecological conservation and environmental management. Rapid and continuous urban expansion, however, may exert negative effects on the performance of practical zoning designs. Various methods have been developed for protected area zoning, but most of them failed to consider the conflicts between urban development (for the benefit of land developers) and ecological protection (local government). Some real-world zoning schemes even have to be modified occasionally after the lengthy negotiations between the government and land developers. Therefore, our study has presented a game theory-based method to deal with this problem. Future urban expansion in the study area will be predicted by a logistic regression cellular automaton, while eco-protected areas will be delimitated using multi-objective optimization algorithm. Then, two types of conflicts between them can be resolved based on game theory, a theory of decision-making. We established a two-person dynamic game for each conflict zone. The ecological compensation mechanism was taken into account by simulating the negotiation processes between the government and land developers. A final zoning scheme can be obtained when the two sides reach agreements. The proposed method is applied to the eco-protected area zoning in Guangzhou, a fast-growing city in China. The experiments indicate that the conflicts between eco-protection and urban development will inevitably arise when using only traditional zoning methods. Based on game theory, our method can effectively resolve those conflicts, and can provide a relatively reasonable zoning scheme. This method is expected to support policy-making in environmental management and urban planning. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pacific island health inequities forecast to grow unless profound changes are made to health systems in the region. (United States)

    Matheson, Don; Park, Kunhee; Soakai, Taniela Sunia


    Objective Twenty years ago the Pacific's health ministers developed a 'Healthy Islands' vision to lead health development in the subregion. This paper reports on a review of health development over this period and discusses the implications for the attainment of the health related Sustainable Development Goals. Methods The review used qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative review included conducting semi-structured interviews with Pacific Island Government Ministers and officials, regional agencies, health workers and community members. A document review was also conducted. The quantitative review consisted of examining secondary data from regional and global data collections. Results The review found improvement in health indicators, but increasing health inequality between the Pacific and the rest of the world. Many of the larger island populations were unable to reach the health Millennium Development Goals. The 'Healthy Islands' vision remained an inspiration to health ministers and senior officials in the region. However, implementation of the 'Healthy Islands' approach was patchy, under-resourced and un-sustained. Communicable and Maternal and Child Health challenges persist alongside unprecedented levels of non-communicable diseases, inadequate levels of health finance and few skilled health workers as the major impediments to health development for many of the Pacific's countries. Conclusions The current trajectory for health in the Pacific will lead to increasing health inequity with the rest of the world. The challenges to health in the region include persisting communicable disease and maternal and child health threats, unprecedented levels of NCDs, climate change and instability, as well as low economic growth. In order to change the fortunes of this region in the age of the SDGs, a substantial investment in health is required, including in the health workforce, by countries and donors alike. That investment requires a nuanced response

  10. Chemical analysis and antioxidant activity of the essential oils of three Piperaceae species growing in the central region of Cuba. (United States)

    Rodríguez, Elisa Jorge; Saucedo-Hernández, Yanelis; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Simó-Alfonso, Ernesto F; Ramis-Ramos, Guillermo; Lerma-García, María Jesús; Monteagudo, Urbano; Bravo, Luis; Medinilla, Mildred; de Armas, Yuriam; Herrero-Martínez, José Manuel


    The present study describes the phytochemical profile and antioxidant activity of the essential oils of three Piperaceae species collected in the central region of Cuba. The essential oils of Piper aduncum, P. auritum and P. umbellatum leaves, obtained by hydrodistillation, were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The main components of P. aduncum oil were piperitone (34%), camphor (17.1%), camphene (10.9%), 1,8-cineol (8.7%) and viridiflorol (7.4%), whereas that of P. auritum and P. umbellatum was safrole (71.8 and 26.4%, respectively). The antioxidant properties of the essential oils were also evaluated using several assays for radical scavenging ability (DPPH test and reducing power) and inhibition of lipid oxidation (ferric thiocyanate method and evaluation against Cucurbita seed oil by peroxide, thiobarbituric acid and p-anisidine methods). P. auritum showed the strongest antioxidant activity among the Piper species investigated, but lower than those of butylated hydroxyanisol and propyl gallate.

  11. An improved in vitro model to characterize invasive growing cancer cells simultaneously by function and genetic aberrations. (United States)

    Jung, V; Wullich, B; Kamradt, J; Stöckle, M; Unteregger, G


    Invasion into the surrounding tissue and bone metastasis is a common feature of advanced prostate cancer. Chromosomal and other genetic or epigenetic abnormalities were aligned to this behaviour mostly by using permanent cell lines, paraffin embedded tissue or primary tumour samples. Both attempts fail to reflect either the original situation or functional information in the patient's tissue. Thus, we developed an improved in vitro assay to follow invasion of prostate cancer cells derived from fresh samples of radical prostatectomy specimens. Fresh tumour samples were applied onto Matrigeltrade mark-coated invasion chambers using a cocultivation model. Invasive growing cells were harvested from the bottom of the membrane or from the underlying gel and further characterized using comparative genomic hybridization. Prostate cancer cells have the capability to invasively grow through the barrier of a Matrigeltrade mark and could easily be sampled in a pad of Matrigeltrade mark. Comparative genomic hybridization revealed characteristic chromosomal aberrations of the invasive growing cells. Noteworthy is their ability to spheroid formation, which allows for further cell propagation by standard cell culture methods. Thus, our improved invasion model is a tool for the sampling of invasive growing cancer cells from fresh human tumour material allowing for functional as well as genetic studies.

  12. Effect of land cover and green space on land surface temperature of a fast growing economic region in Malaysia (United States)

    Sheikhi, A.; Kanniah, K. D.; Ho, C. H.


    Green space must be increased in the development of new cities as green space can moderate temperature in the cities. In this study we estimated the land surface temperature (LST) and established relationships between LST and land cover and various vegetation and urban surface indices in the Iskandar Malaysia (IM) region. IM is one of the emerging economic gateways of Malaysia, and is envisaged to transform into a metropolis by 2025. This change may cause increased temperature in IM and therefore we conducted a study by using Landsat 5 image covering the study region (2,217 km2) to estimate LST, classify different land covers and calculate spectral indices. Results show that urban surface had highest LST (24.49 °C) and the lowest temperature was recorded in, forest, rubber and water bodies ( 20.69 to 21.02°C). Oil palm plantations showed intermediate mean LST values with 21.65 °C. We further investigated the relationship between vegetation and build up densities with temperature. We extracted 1000 collocated pure pixels of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Urban Index (UI) and LST in the study area. Results show a strong and significant negative correlation with (R2= -0.74 and -0.79) respectively between NDVI, NDWI and LST . Meanwhile a strong positive correlation (R2=0.8 and 0.86) exists between NDBI, UI and LST. These results show the importance of increasing green cover in urban environment to combat any adverse effects of climate change.

  13. Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of a Desmopressin Oral Lyophilisate in Growing Piglets as a Model for the Pediatric Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Gasthuys


    Full Text Available Desmopressin is used to treat primary nocturnal enuresis in children. Over the years, various formulations of desmopressin were commercialized of which the sublingual melt tablet is preferred in the pediatric population, despite the lack of full PK studies in this population. A full PK study was performed in growing conventional piglets to evaluate if this juvenile animal model can provide supplementary information to complement the information gap in the pediatric population. A desmopressin sublingual melt tablet (120 μg was administered to 32 male piglets aged 8 days, 4 weeks, 7 weeks, and 6 months (each group n = 8. Population PK (pop-PK analysis was performed to derive the PK parameters, the between- and within-subject variabilities and the effects of covariates. Desmopressin demonstrated two-compartmental PK, with a dual, sequential absorption process, and linear elimination. Body weight was the only significant covariate on clearance and on apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment. In human pediatric trials, no double peak in the absorption phase was observed in the plasma concentration-time curves, possibly due to the sparse sampling strategy applied in those pediatric studies. Therefore, it is recommended to perform additional studies, based on the sampling protocol applied in the current study.

  14. Modeling Regional Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters (United States)

    Boissonnade, A.; Hallegate, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Schlumberger, M.; Onur, T.


    Common features of natural disasters are intense regional impacts and the need for assessing their economic impacts on the construction sectors. The years 2004 and 2005 were record-setting time for natural disasters with major disasters or catastrophic (Cat) events all around the world with dramatic consequences in human lives and economic losses around the world, affecting developed and developing countries. Although there is a large body of literature on assessing the impact of cat events, there is little available research on the quantification and modeling of the regional economic impact of such events on the cost and length of reconstruction. Current available econometric models have serious limitations because they need detailed information for modeling the complex interactions between the different stakeholders of the economy at a regional level that is generally not available. Also, very little research was performed for quantifying the demand surge, defined as the sudden increase in the cost of repairs due to amplified payments, following a hurricane or a series of hurricane events or other natural disasters. Demand surge is an important component of the overall economic impact of cat events and there is a need to better quantify it. This paper presents results of a research program that started after the 2004 and 2005 U.S. hurricane seasons. A large data set of economic and observed losses resulting from the hurricanes that affected Florida and the Gulf states in the US was collected at county level. This provided us with the basis for assessing the change in repair costs before and after these historical events, to quantify the demand surge (after removing the underlying baseline trends) at several dozens of locations across the areas affected, and to provide information on how the changes in demand surge vary spatially and temporally in affected areas for which the amount of structure losses were reported. A parallel research effort was undertaken for

  15. Regional geothermal 3D modelling in Denmark (United States)

    Poulsen, S. E.; Balling, N.; Bording, T. S.; Nielsen, S. B.


    Weichselian glaciation is included in the model procedure. The ability of MODFLOW for simulating heat conduction is demonstrated in simple test cases. The regional geothermal model is then utilized for modelling the subsurface temperature distribution and contouring updated temperature maps for geothermal reservoirs in Denmark.

  16. Characterization of root-nodulating bacteria associated to Prosopis farcta growing in the arid regions of Tunisia. (United States)

    Fterich, A; Mahdhi, M; Caviedes, M A; Pajuelo, E; Rivas, R; Rodriguez-Llorente, I D; Mars, M


    Diversity of 50 bacterial isolates recovered from root nodules of Prosopis farcta grown in different arid soils in Tunisia, was investigated. Characterization of isolates was assessed using a polyphasic approach including phenotypic characteristics, 16S rRNA gene PCR--RFLP and sequencing, nodA gene sequencing and MLSA. It was found that most of isolates are tolerant to high temperature (40°C) and salinity (3%). Genetic characterization emphasizes that isolates were assigned to the genus Ensifer (80%), Mesorhizobium (4%) and non-nodulating endophytic bacteria (16%). Forty isolates belonging to the genus Ensifer were affiliated to Ensifer meliloti, Ensifer xinjiangense/Ensifer fredii and Ensifer numidicus species. Two isolates belonged to the genus Mesorhizobium. Eight isolates failing to renodulate their host plant were endophytic bacteria and belonged to Bacillus, Paenibacillus and Acinetobacter genera. Symbiotic properties of nodulating isolates showed a diversity in their capacity to infect their host plant and fix atmospheric nitrogen. Isolate PG29 identified as Ensifer meliloti was the most effective one. Ability of Prosopis farcta to establish symbiosis with rhizobial species confers an important advantage for this species to be used in reforestation programs. This study offered the first systematic information about the diversity of microsymbionts nodulating Prosopis farcta in the arid regions of Tunisia.

  17. Maturity stages affect the postharvest quality and shelf-life of fruits of strawberry genotypes growing in subtropical regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moshiur Rahman


    Full Text Available The postharvest changes of five promising strawberry genotypes viz. Sweet Charlie, Festival, Camarosa, FA 008 and BARI Strawberry-1 at ambient temperature were studied under sub tropical region during the winter season (December–April of 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 in Bangladesh. Irrespective of maturity stages percent fruit decay and weight of fruits were noted minimum in Camarosa and maximum in FA 008 up to day 4 of storage. The shelf life of fruits was maximum in Camarosa and minimum in FA 008 and BARI Strawberry-1 regardless of maturity stage throughout the storage period. The TSS, total sugar and ascorbic acid content of fruits were increased with the increase in maturity stage during the storage period. In 1/3rd and 2/3rd maturity stages, the TSS and total sugar content were found the highest in Festival but at full maturity stage those were recorded higher in Camarosa. The titratable acidity was noticed the highest in 1/3rd matured fruits and gradually decreased with the increase in maturity stage as well as storage duration in all the genotypes. Ascorbic acid content of strawberry gradually decreases during the storage period. Fully matured fresh fruits of Festival contained maximum ascorbic acid content while BARI Strawberry-1 contained minimum ascorbic acid that was reduced after 3 days of storage.

  18. Regional planning and modelling of nitrate leaching in Denmark using DaisyGIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veihe, Anita; Jensen, Niels H.; Boegh, Eva

    Spatial deterministic simulation models such as DaisyGIS are increasingly being used for decision-making in European planning and there is a growing interest in using DaisyGIS as an administrative tool at the regional level in Denmark. This study evaluates the use of Daisy-GIS for nitrate leaching...

  19. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model. (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina


    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data. (United States)

    Estes, Tammara L; Pai, Naresh; Winchell, Michael F


    A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides. Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated. In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  1. The Growing Season, but Not the Farming System, Is a Food Safety Risk Determinant for Leafy Greens in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States (United States)

    Marine, Sasha C.; Pagadala, Sivaranjani; Wang, Fei; Pahl, Donna M.; Melendez, Meredith V.; Kline, Wesley L.; Oni, Ruth A.; Walsh, Christopher S.; Everts, Kathryne L.; Buchanan, Robert L.


    Small- and medium-size farms in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States use varied agricultural practices to produce leafy greens during spring and fall, but the impact of preharvest practices on food safety risk remains unclear. To assess farm-level risk factors, bacterial indicators, Salmonella enterica, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) from 32 organic and conventional farms were analyzed. A total of 577 leafy greens, irrigation water, compost, field soil, and pond sediment samples were collected. Salmonella was recovered from 2.2% of leafy greens (n = 369) and 7.7% of sediment (n = 13) samples. There was an association between Salmonella recovery and growing season (fall versus spring) (P = 0.006) but not farming system (organic or conventional) (P = 0.920) or region (P = 0.991). No STEC was isolated. In all, 10% of samples were positive for E. coli: 6% of leafy greens, 18% of irrigation water, 10% of soil, 38% of sediment, and 27% of compost samples. Farming system was not a significant factor for levels of E. coli or aerobic mesophiles on leafy greens but was a significant factor for total coliforms (TC) (P bacteria (P < 0.001), and end-of-line groundwater had marginally higher TC counts than source samples (P = 0.059). Overall, the data suggest that seasonal events, weather conditions, and proximity of compost piles might be important factors contributing to microbial contamination on farms growing leafy greens. PMID:25616798

  2. Differences in the progress of the biopesticide revolution between the EU and other major crop-growing regions. (United States)

    Balog, Adalbert; Hartel, Tibor; Loxdale, Hugh D; Wilson, Kenneth


    The five-year value in the compound annual growth rate of the biopesticides sector is predicted to be 16% by 2017 and to produce a global market worth $US 10 billion. Despite this, several impediments occur within the EU that negatively affect biopesticide research and innovation. At present, there are fewer biopesticide-active substances registered in the EU compared with the United States, India, Brazil and China. The relatively low level of biopesticide research in the EU (6880 ISI papers) versus the United States (18 839), India (9501) and China (7875) relates to the greater complexity of EU-based biopesticide regulations compared with these other countries. In this light, it is worth noting that tensions may exist between regulators that emphasise the beneficial nature of biopesticides in environmentally friendly crop management and those that adopt a more technologically based approach dependent on a chemical-pesticide-driven model. Compared with the other aforementioned countries, far fewer biopesticide products are available in the EU market, mainly as a direct result of the severe regulatory factors present there. The extent to which this trend will continue depends largely on a range of interacting political and/or regulatory decisions that influence environmentally friendly agricultural industries. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  3. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.


    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  4. Growing up and Role Modeling: A Theory in Iranian Nursing Students? Education


    Nouri, Jamileh Mokhtari; Ebadi, Abbas; Alhani, Fatemeh; Rejeh, Nahid


    One of the key strategies in students? learning is being affected by models. Understanding the role-modeling process in education will help to make greater use of this training strategy. The aim of this grounded theory study was to explore Iranian nursing students and instructors? experiences about role modeling process. Data was analyzed by Glaserian?s Grounded Theory methodology through semi-structured interviews with 7 faculty members, 2 nursing students; the three focus group discussions ...

  5. Sexual maturity in growing dinosaurs does not fit reptilian growth models. (United States)

    Lee, Andrew H; Werning, Sarah


    Recent histological studies suggest relatively rapid growth in dinosaurs. However, the timing of reproductive maturity (RM) in dinosaurs is poorly known because unambiguous indicators of RM are rare. One exception is medullary bone (MB), which is an ephemeral bony tissue that forms before ovulation in the marrow cavities of birds as a calcium source for eggshelling. Recently, MB also was described in a single specimen of the saurischian dinosaur Tyrannosaurus rex. Here, we report two other occurrences of MB: in another saurischian dinosaur, Allosaurus, and in the ornithischian dinosaur Tenontosaurus. We show by counting lines of arrested growth and performing growth curve reconstructions that Tenontosaurus, Allosaurus, and Tyrannosaurus were reproductively mature by 8, 10, and 18 years, respectively. RM in these dinosaurs coincided with a transition from growth acceleration to deceleration. It also far precedes predictions based on the growth rates of living reptiles scaled to similar size. Despite relatively rapid growth, dinosaurs were similar to reptiles in that RM developed before reaching asymptotic size. However, this reproductive strategy also occurs in medium- to large-sized mammals and correlates with a strategy of prolonged multiyear growth. RM in actively growing individuals suggests that these dinosaurs were born relatively precocial and experienced high adult mortality. The origin of the modern avian reproductive strategy in ornithuran birds likely coincided with their extreme elevations in growth rate and truncations to growth duration.

  6. Growing Fit: Georgia's model for engaging early care environments in preventing childhood obesity. (United States)

    McDavid, Kelsey; Piedrahita, Catalina; Hashima, Patricia; Vall, Emily Anne; Kay, Christi; O'Connor, Jean


    In the United States, one in three children is overweight or obese by their fifth birthday. In Georgia, 35 percent of children are overweight or obese. Contrary to popular belief, children who are overweight or obese are likely to be the same weight status as adults, making early childhood an essential time to address weight status. An estimated 380,000 Georgia children attend early care and education environments, such as licensed child care centers, Head Start, and pre-kindergarten programs, which provide an opportunity to reach large numbers of children, including those at risk for obesity and overweight. To address this opportunity, the Georgia Department of Public Health, Georgia Shape - the Governor's Initiative to prevent childhood obesity, and HealthMPowers, Inc., created the Growing Fit training and toolkit to assist early childhood educators in creating policy, systems, and environmental changes that support good nutrition and physical activity. This report, the first related to this project, describes the training and its dissemination between January and December 2015. A total of 103 early childcare educators from 39 early childcare education centers (22 individual childcare systems) from 19 counties in Georgia were trained. Fifteen systems completed a pre and post-test assessment of their system, demonstrating slight improvements. Training for an additional 125 early childcare education centers is planned for 2016. Lessons learned from the first year of the training include the need for more robust assessment of adoption and implementation of policy, systems, and environmental changes in trained centers.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferruccio Giametta


    Full Text Available The indication of the “path” travelled by all European agrofood products has by now become compulsory: starting from January the 1st, 2005 EC Regulation 178/2002 has established the notions of food tracking and tracing as well as the concept of food safety. Food traceability and safety are becoming notions of crucial importance to those who work in this sector in view of their potentially positive influence on produce competitiveness and appreciation on the part of consumers. This specific line of research is focused on the analysis and the use of both tracking and tracing systems of olive and olive oil products throughout the entire territory of Calabria. A detailed analysis of the productive processes has been made possible through the definition of the socalled “dynamic lot”: a unit of product processed (either directly or indirectly in a time unit (usually a day, as a function of the peculiarities of the olive growing farms involved (orographic features, level of mechanization, etc.. The software architecture (which is currently being updated has been studied considering the reality of the territory in question, and the average level of computer/software literacy of the operators asked to use it.

  8. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi


    Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species and cultiv...

  9. Landscape modelling at Regional to Continental scales (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.

    Most work on simulating landscape evolution has been focused at scales of about 1 Ha, there are still limitations, particularly in understanding the links between hillslope process rates and climate, soils and channel initiation. However, the need for integration with GCM outputs and with Continental Geosystems now imposes an urgent need for scaling up to Regional and Continental scales. This is reinforced by a need to incorporate estimates of soil erosion and desertification rates into national and supra-national policy. Relevant time-scales range from decadal to geological. Approaches at these regional to continental scales are critical to a fuller collaboration between geomorphologists and others interested in Continental Geosystems. Two approaches to the problem of scaling up are presented here for discussion. The first (MEDRUSH) is to embed representative hillslope flow strips into sub-catchments within a larger catchment of up to 5,000 km2. The second is to link one-dimensional models of SVAT type within DEMs at up to global scales (CSEP/SEDWEB). The MEDRUSH model is being developed as part of the EU Desertification Programme (MEDALUS project), primarily for semi-natural vegetation in southern Europe over time spans of up to 100 years. Catchments of up to 2500 km2 are divided into 50-200 sub-catchments on the basis of flow paths derived from DEMs with a horizontal resolution of 50 m or better. Within each sub-catchment a representative flow strip is selected and Hydrology, Sediment Transport and Vegetation change are simulated in detail for the flow strip, using a 1 hour time step. Changes within each flow strip are transferred back to the appropriate sub-catchment and flows of water and sediment are then routed through the channel network, generating changes in flood plain morphology.

  10. Improved regional climate modelling through dynamical downscaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corney, Stuart; Grose, Michael; Holz, Greg; White, Chris; Bennett, James; Gaynor, Suzie; Bindoff, Nathan; Katzfey, Jack; McGregor, John


    Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide the best estimates for assessing potential changes to our climate on a global scale out to the end of this century. Because coupled GCMs have a fairly coarse resolution they do not provide a detailed picture of climate (and climate change) at the local scale. Tasmania, due to its diverse geography and range of climate over a small area is a particularly difficult region for drawing conclusions regarding climate change when relying solely on GCMs. The foundation of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project is to take the output produced by multiple GCMs, using multiple climate change scenarios, and use this output as input into the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to downscale the GCM output. CCAM is a full atmospheric global general circulation model, formulated using a conformal-cubic grid that covers the globe but can be stretched to provide higher resolution in the area of interest (Tasmania). By modelling the atmosphere at a much finer scale than is possible using a coupled GCM we can more accurately capture the processes that drive Tasmania's weather/climate, and thus can more clearly answer the question of how Tasmania's climate will change in the future. We present results that show the improvements in capturing the local-scale climate and climate drivers that can be achieved through downscaling, when compared to a gridded observational data set. The underlying assumption of this work is that a better simulated current climatology will also produce a more credible climate change signal.

  11. Rice growing farmers efficiency measurement using a slack based interval DEA model with undesirable outputs (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul


    In recent years eco-efficiency which considers the effect of production process on environment in determining the efficiency of firms have gained traction and a lot of attention. Rice farming is one of such production processes which typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable. In efficiency analysis, these undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in the model to obtain the actual estimation of firm's efficiency. There are numerous approaches that have been used in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to account for undesirable outputs of which directional distance function (DDF) approach is the most widely used as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, slack based DDF DEA approaches considers the output shortfalls and input excess in determining efficiency. In situations when data uncertainty is present, the deterministic DEA model is not suitable to be used as the effects of uncertain data will not be considered. In this case, it has been found that interval data approach is suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding the underlying data distribution and membership function. The proposed model uses an enhanced DEA model which is based on DDF approach and incorporates slack based measure to determine efficiency in the presence of undesirable factors and data uncertainty. Interval data approach was used to estimate the values of inputs, undesirable outputs and desirable outputs. Two separate slack based interval DEA models were constructed for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The developed model was used to determine rice farmers efficiency from Kepala Batas, Kedah. The obtained results were later compared to the results obtained using a deterministic DDF DEA model. The study found that 15 out of 30 farmers are efficient in all cases. It

  12. Growing up and role modeling: a theory in Iranian nursing students' education. (United States)

    Mokhtari Nouri, Jamileh; Ebadi, Abbas; Alhani, Fatemeh; Rejeh, Nahid


    One of the key strategies in students' learning is being affected by models. Understanding the role-modelpan>ing process in education will help to make greater use of this training strategy. The aim of this grounded theory study was to explore Iranian nursing students and instructors' experiences about role modeling process. Data was analyzed by Glaserian's Grounded Theory methodology through semi-structured interviews with 7 faculty members, 2 nursing students; the three focus group discussions with 20 nursing students based on purposive and theoretical sampling was done for explaining role modeling process from four nursing faculties in Tehran. Through basic coding, an effort to comprehensive growth and excellence was made with the basic social process consisting the core category and through selective coding three phases were identified as: realizing and exposure to inadequate human and professional growth, facilitating human and professional growth and evolution. The role modeling process is taking place unconscious, involuntary, dynamic and with positive progressive process in order to facilitate overall growth in nursing student. Accordingly, the design and implementation of the designed model can be used to make this unconscious to conscious, active and voluntarily processes a process to help education administrators of nursing colleges and supra organization to prevent threats to human and professional in nursing students' education and promote nursing students' growth.

  13. Growing up and Role Modeling: A Theory in Iranian Nursing Students’ Education (United States)

    Nouri, Jamileh Mokhtari; Ebadi, Abbas; Alhani, Fatemeh; Rejeh, Nahid


    One of the key strategies in students’ learning is being affected by models. Understanding the role-modelpan>ing process in education will help to make greater use of this training strategy. The aim of this grounded theory study was to explore Iranian nursing students and instructors’ experiences about role modeling process. Data was analyzed by Glaserian’s Grounded Theory methodology through semi-structured interviews with 7 faculty members, 2 nursing students; the three focus group discussions with 20 nursing students based on purposive and theoretical sampling was done for explaining role modeling process from four nursing faculties in Tehran. Through basic coding, an effort to comprehensive growth and excellence was made with the basic social process consisting the core category and through selective coding three phases were identified as: realizing and exposure to inadequate human and professional growth, facilitating human and professional growth and evolution. The role modeling process is taking place unconscious, involuntary, dynamic and with positive progressive process in order to facilitate overall growth in nursing student. Accordingly, the design and implementation of the designed model can be used to make this unconscious to conscious, active and voluntarily processes a process to help education administrators of nursing colleges and supra organization to prevent threats to human and professional in nursing students’ education and promote nursing students’ growth. PMID:25716391

  14. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît


    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  15. Droplets: unconventional protocell model with life-like dynamics and room to grow. (United States)

    Hanczyc, Martin M


    Over the past few decades, several protocell models have been developed that mimic certain essential characteristics of living cells. These protocells tend to be highly reductionist simplifications of living cells with prominent bilayer membrane boundaries, encapsulated metabolisms and/or encapsulated biologically-derived polymers as potential sources of information coding. In parallel with this conventional work, a novel protocell model based on droplets is also being developed. Such water-in-oil and oil-in-water droplet systems can possess chemical and biochemical transformations and biomolecule production, self-movement, self-division, individuality, group dynamics, and perhaps the fundamentals of intelligent systems and evolution. Given the diverse functionality possible with droplets as mimics of living cells, this system has the potential to be the first true embodiment of artificial life that is an orthologous departure from the one familiar type of biological life. This paper will synthesize the recent activity to develop droplets as protocell models.

  16. Droplets: Unconventional Protocell Model with Life-Like Dynamics and Room to Grow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin M Hanczyc


    Full Text Available Over the past few decades, several protocell models have been developed that mimic certain essential characteristics of living cells. These protocells tend to be highly reductionist simplifications of living cells with prominent bilayer membrane boundaries, encapsulated metabolisms and/or encapsulated biologically-derived polymers as potential sources of information coding. In parallel with this conventional work, a novel protocell model based on droplets is also being developed. Such water-in-oil and oil-in-water droplet systems can possess chemical and biochemical transformations and biomolecule production, self-movement, self-division, individuality, group dynamics, and perhaps the fundamentals of intelligent systems and evolution. Given the diverse functionality possible with droplets as mimics of living cells, this system has the potential to be the first true embodiment of artificial life that is an orthologous departure from the one familiar type of biological life. This paper will synthesize the recent activity to develop droplets as protocell models.

  17. Stochastic dynamical model of a growing citation network based on a self-exciting point process. (United States)

    Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin


    We put under experimental scrutiny the preferential attachment model that is commonly accepted as a generating mechanism of the scale-free complex networks. To this end we chose a citation network of physics papers and traced the citation history of 40,195 papers published in one year. Contrary to common belief, we find that the citation dynamics of the individual papers follows the superlinear preferential attachment, with the exponent α=1.25-1.3. Moreover, we show that the citation process cannot be described as a memoryless Markov chain since there is a substantial correlation between the present and recent citation rates of a paper. Based on our findings we construct a stochastic growth model of the citation network, perform numerical simulations based on this model and achieve an excellent agreement with the measured citation distributions.

  18. Cyclic Loading of Growing Tissue in a Bioreactor: Mathematical Model and Asymptotic Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Pohlmeyer, J. V.


    A simplified 2D mathematical model for tissue growth within a cyclically-loaded tissue engineering scaffold is presented and analyzed. Such cyclic loading has the potential to improve yield and functionality of tissue such as bone and cartilage when grown on a scaffold within a perfusion bioreactor. The cyclic compression affects the flow of the perfused nutrient, leading to flow properties that are inherently unsteady, though periodic, on a timescale short compared with that of tissue proliferation. A two-timescale analysis based on these well-separated timescales is exploited to derive a closed model for the tissue growth on the long timescale of proliferation. Some sample numerical results are given for the final model, and discussed. © 2013 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  19. Metabolic model of central carbon and energy metabolisms of growing Arabidopsis thaliana in relation to sucrose translocation. (United States)

    Zakhartsev, Maksim; Medvedeva, Irina; Orlov, Yury; Akberdin, Ilya; Krebs, Olga; Schulze, Waltraud X


    Sucrose translocation between plant tissues is crucial for growth, development and reproduction of plants. Systemic analysis of these metabolic and underlying regulatory processes allow a detailed understanding of carbon distribution within the plant and the formation of associated phenotypic traits. Sucrose translocation from 'source' tissues (e.g. mesophyll) to 'sink' tissues (e.g. root) is tightly bound to the proton gradient across the membranes. The plant sucrose transporters are grouped into efflux exporters (SWEET family) and proton-symport importers (SUC, STP families). To better understand regulation of sucrose export from source tissues and sucrose import into sink tissues, there is a need for a metabolic model that takes in account the tissue organisation of Arabidopsis thaliana with corresponding metabolic specificities of respective tissues in terms of sucrose and proton production/utilization. An ability of the model to operate under different light modes ('light' and 'dark') and correspondingly in different energy producing modes is particularly important in understanding regulatory modules. Here, we describe a multi-compartmental model consisting of a mesophyll cell with plastid and mitochondrion, a phloem cell, as well as a root cell with mitochondrion. In this model, the phloem was considered as a non-growing transport compartment, the mesophyll compartment was considered as both autotrophic (growing on CO 2 under light) and heterotrophic (growing on starch in darkness), and the root was always considered as heterotrophic tissue dependent on sucrose supply from the mesophyll compartment. In total, the model includes 413 balanced compounds interconnected by 400 transformers. The structured metabolic model accounts for central carbon metabolism, photosynthesis, photorespiration, carbohydrate metabolism, energy and redox metabolisms, proton metabolism, biomass growth, nutrients uptake, proton gradient generation and sucrose translocation between

  20. Regional air quality modeling: North American and European perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steyn, D.; Builtjes, P.; Schaap, M.; Yarwood, G.


    An overview of regional-scale quality modeling practices and perspectives in North America and Europe, highlighting the differences and commonalities in how regional-scale air quality modeling systems are being used and evaluated across both continents

  1. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail:; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail:; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUM College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)


    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.

  2. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul


    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.

  3. Hindlimb unloading of growing rats: a model for predicting skeletal changes during space flight (United States)

    Morey-Holton, E. R.; Globus, R. K.


    A model that uses hindlimb unloading of rats was developed to study the consequences of skeletal unloading and reloading as occurs during and following space flight. Studies using the model were initiated two decades ago and further developed at National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Ames Research Center. The model mimics some aspects of exposure to microgravity by removing weightbearing loads from the hindquarters and producing a cephalic fluid shift. Unlike space flight, the forelimbs remain loaded in the model, providing a useful internal control to distinguish between the local and systemic effects of hindlimb unloading. Rats that are hindlimb unloaded by tail traction gain weight at the same rate as pairfed controls, and glucocorticoid levels are not different from controls, suggesting that systemic stress is minimal. Unloaded bones display reductions in cancellous osteoblast number, cancellous mineral apposition rate, trabecular bone volume, cortical periosteal mineralization rate, total bone mass, calcium content, and maturation of bone mineral relative to controls. Subsequent studies reveal that these changes also occur in rats exposed to space flight. In hindlimb unloaded rats, bone formation rates and masses of unloaded bones decline relative to controls, while loaded bones do not change despite a transient reduction in serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25D) concentrations. Studies using the model to evaluate potential countermeasures show that 1,25D, growth hormone, dietary calcium, alendronate, and muscle stimulation modify, but do not completely correct, the suppression of bone growth caused by unloading, whereas continuous infusion of transforming growth factor-beta2 or insulin-like growth factor-1 appears to protect against some of the bone changes caused by unloading. These results emphasize the importance of local as opposed to systemic factors in the skeletal response to unloading, and reveal the pivotal role that osteoblasts play in

  4. A growing animal model for neonatal repair of large diaphragmatic defects to evaluate patch function and outcome (United States)

    Joyeux, Luc; Pranpanus, Savitree; Van der Merwe, Johannes; Verbeken, Eric; De Vleeschauwer, Stephanie; Gayan-Ramirez, Ghislaine; Deprest, Jan


    Objectives We aimed to develop a more representative model for neonatal congenital diaphragmatic hernia repair in a large animal model, by creating a large defect in a fast-growing pup, using functional pulmonary and diaphragmatic read outs. Background Grafts are increasingly used to repair congenital diaphragmatic hernia with the risk of local complications. Growing animal models have been used to test novel materials. Methods 6-week-old rabbits underwent fiberoptic intubation, left subcostal laparotomy and hemi-diaphragmatic excision (either nearly complete (n = 13) or 3*3cm (n = 9)) and primary closure (Gore-Tex patch). Survival was further increased by moving to laryngeal mask airway ventilation (n = 15). Sham operated animals were used as controls (n = 6). Survivors (90 days) underwent chest X-Ray (scoliosis), measurements of maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure and breathing pattern (tidal volume, Pdi). Rates of herniation, lung histology and right hemi-diaphragmatic fiber cross-sectional area was measured. Results Rabbits surviving 90 days doubled their weight. Only one (8%) with a complete defect survived to 90 days. In the 3*3cm defect group all survived to 48 hours, however seven (78%) died later (16–49 days) from respiratory failure secondary to tracheal stricture formation. Use of a laryngeal mask airway doubled 90-day survival, one pup displaying herniation (17%). Cobb angel measurements, breathing pattern, and lung histology were comparable to sham. Under exertion, sham animals increased their maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure 134% compared to a 71% increase in patched animals (p<0.05). Patched animals had a compensatory increase in their right hemi-diaphragmatic fiber cross-sectional area (p<0.0001). Conclusions A primarily patched 3*3cm defect in growing rabbits, under laryngeal mask airway ventilation, enables adequate survival with normal lung function and reduced maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure compared to controls. PMID:28358826

  5. A growing animal model for neonatal repair of large diaphragmatic defects to evaluate patch function and outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Patrice Eastwood

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop a more representative model for neonatal congenital diaphragmatic hernia repair in a large animal model, by creating a large defect in a fast-growing pup, using functional pulmonary and diaphragmatic read outs.Grafts are increasingly used to repair congenital diaphragmatic hernia with the risk of local complications. Growing animal models have been used to test novel materials.6-week-old rabbits underwent fiberoptic intubation, left subcostal laparotomy and hemi-diaphragmatic excision (either nearly complete (n = 13 or 3*3cm (n = 9 and primary closure (Gore-Tex patch. Survival was further increased by moving to laryngeal mask airway ventilation (n = 15. Sham operated animals were used as controls (n = 6. Survivors (90 days underwent chest X-Ray (scoliosis, measurements of maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure and breathing pattern (tidal volume, Pdi. Rates of herniation, lung histology and right hemi-diaphragmatic fiber cross-sectional area was measured.Rabbits surviving 90 days doubled their weight. Only one (8% with a complete defect survived to 90 days. In the 3*3cm defect group all survived to 48 hours, however seven (78% died later (16-49 days from respiratory failure secondary to tracheal stricture formation. Use of a laryngeal mask airway doubled 90-day survival, one pup displaying herniation (17%. Cobb angel measurements, breathing pattern, and lung histology were comparable to sham. Under exertion, sham animals increased their maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure 134% compared to a 71% increase in patched animals (p<0.05. Patched animals had a compensatory increase in their right hemi-diaphragmatic fiber cross-sectional area (p<0.0001.A primarily patched 3*3cm defect in growing rabbits, under laryngeal mask airway ventilation, enables adequate survival with normal lung function and reduced maximum transdiaphragmatic pressure compared to controls.

  6. New Neighbours: Modelling the Growing Population of gamma-ray Millisecond Pulsars (United States)

    Venter, C.; Harding, A. K.; Johnson, T. J.


    The Fermi Large Area Telescope, in collaboration with several groups from the radio community. have had marvelous success at uncovering new gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs). In fact, MSPs now make up a sizable fraction of the total number of known gamma-ray pulsars. The MSP population is characterized by a variety of pulse profile shapes, peak separations, and radio-to-gamma phase lags, with some members exhibiting nearly phase-aligned radio and gamma-ray light curves (LCs). The MSPs' short spin periods underline the importance of including special relativistic effects in LC calculations, even for emission originating from near the stellar surface. We present results on modelling and classification of MSP LCs using standard pulsar model geometries.

  7. Growing complex network of citations of scientific papers: Modeling and measurements. (United States)

    Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin


    We consider the network of citations of scientific papers and use a combination of the theoretical and experimental tools to uncover microscopic details of this network growth. Namely, we develop a stochastic model of citation dynamics based on the copying-redirection-triadic closure mechanism. In a complementary and coherent way, the model accounts both for statistics of references of scientific papers and for their citation dynamics. Originating in empirical measurements, the model is cast in such a way that it can be verified quantitatively in every aspect. Such validation is performed by measuring citation dynamics of physics papers. The measurements revealed nonlinear citation dynamics, the nonlinearity being intricately related to network topology. The nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences including nonstationary citation distributions, diverging citation trajectories of similar papers, runaways or "immortal papers" with infinite citation lifetime, etc. Thus nonlinearity in complex network growth is our most important finding. In a more specific context, our results can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.

  8. Effect of arterial deprivation on growing femoral epiphysis: Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging using a piglet model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheon, Jung Eun; Yoo, Won Joon; Kim, In One; Kim, Woo Sun; Choi, Young Hun [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    To investigate the usefulness of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and diffusion MRI for the evaluation of femoral head ischemia. Unilateral femoral head ischemia was induced by selective embolization of the medial circumflex femoral artery in 10 piglets. All MRIs were performed immediately (1 hour) and after embolization (1, 2, and 4 weeks). Apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) were calculated for the femoral head. The estimated pharmacokinetic parameters (Kep and Ve from two-compartment model) and semi-quantitative parameters including peak enhancement, time-to-peak (TTP), and contrast washout were evaluated. The epiphyseal ADC values of the ischemic hip decreased immediately (1 hour) after embolization. However, they increased rapidly at 1 week after embolization and remained elevated until 4 weeks after embolization. Perfusion MRI of ischemic hips showed decreased epiphyseal perfusion with decreased Kep immediately after embolization. Signal intensity-time curves showed delayed TTP with limited contrast washout immediately post-embolization. At 1-2 weeks after embolization, spontaneous reperfusion was observed in ischemic epiphyses. The change of ADC (p = 0.043) and Kep (p = 0.043) were significantly different between immediate (1 hour) after embolization and 1 week post-embolization. Diffusion MRI and pharmacokinetic model obtained from the DCE-MRI are useful in depicting early changes of perfusion and tissue damage using the model of femoral head ischemia in skeletally immature piglets.

  9. Fee-for-service as a business model of growing importance: the academic biobank experience. (United States)

    McDonald, Sandra A; Sommerkamp, Kara; Egan-Palmer, Maureen; Kharasch, Karen; Holtschlag, Victoria


    Biorepositories offer tremendous scientific value to a wide variety of customer groups (academic, commercial, industrial) in their ability to deliver a centralized, standardized service model, encompassing both biospecimen storage and related laboratory services. Generally, the scientific expertise and economies of scale that are offered in centralized, properly resourced research biobanks has yielded value that has been well-recognized by universities, pharmaceutical companies, and other sponsoring institutions. However, like many facets of the economy, biobanks have been under increasing cost pressure in recent years. This has been a particular problem in the academic arena, where direct support from grant sources (both governmental and philanthropic) typically now is more difficult to secure, or provides reduced financial support, relative to previous years. One way to address this challenge is to establish or enhance a well-defined fee-for-service model which is properly calibrated to cover operational costs while still offering competitive value to users. In this model, customers are never charged for the biospecimens themselves, but rather for the laboratory services associated with them. Good communication practices, proper assessment of value, implementation of best practices, and a sound business plan are all needed for this initiative to succeed. Here we summarize our experiences at Washington University School of Medicine in the expectation they will be useful to others.

  10. An Academic-Practice Partnership Model to Grow and Sustain Advanced Practice Nursing. (United States)

    Williams, Tracy E; Howard, Patricia B


    The aims of this article were to describe the implementation of an academic-practice partnership for healthcare system workforce development and provide preliminary outcomes of the associated pilot study. The demand for cross-continuum healthcare delivery models necessitates creation of workforce development structures for advanced practice nursing. An academic-practice partnership specified enrollment of 5 cohorts of BSN staff nurses in a 3-year DNP program. Qualitative methods were used to explore pilot data at midpoint of cohort 1 student progression to determine learning outcomes and DNP projects with potential for impact on organization goals. Partnership implementation experiences indicate that contractual agreements and an established evaluation plan are keys to academic-practice partnership success. Pilot study findings suggest that curriculum core courses provide a foundation for designing DNP projects congruent with acute and primary care health system goals. Implementing an academic-practice partnership is a strategy for workforce development to increase retention of advanced practice nurses. Academic-practice partnerships can serve as a catalyst for a paradigm shift for changing models of care, thus enhancing workforce development succession planning for sustainable growth in healthcare systems.

  11. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations. (United States)

    He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi


    The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade -1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological

  12. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations (United States)

    He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi


    The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade-1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Several fruit fly species (Diptera: Tephritidae and Lonchaeidae assume the status of primary pests in fruit trees grown in Brazil, causing direct production losses. The aims of the study were to know aspects of diversity of fruit flies and their parasitoids in the fruit growing region of Livramento de Nossa Senhora, Bahia. Fruit samples were collected from 19 plant species during November/2011 and June/2014. Infestation rates were calculated in of fruit and pupae.fruit-1. The results indicate the occurrence of Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann and Neosilba pendula (Bezzi. Plant species Anacardium occidentale, Averrhoa carambola, Carica papaya, Eugenia uniflora, Malpighia emarginata, Mangifera indica var. “Haden”, “Rosa” and “Tommy Atkins”, Opuntia ficus indica, Pereskia bahiensis, Psidium guajava, Spondias lutea, Spondias purpurea and Spondias tuberosa are hosts of fruit flies in the region. Unprecedented bitrophic relationships between P. bahiensis and C. capitata and Anastrepha sp. and between Opuntia ficus indica and C. capitata and A. obliqua were recorded. Unprecedented tritrophic relationship for the state of Bahia Averrhoa carambola and C. capitata and parasitoid of the Pteromalidae Family were also recorded. Tritrophic associations between M. indica var. “Tommy Atkins” and S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Doryctobracon areolatus; and between S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Utetes anastrephae were observed.

  14. A novel region-growing based semi-automatic segmentation protocol for three-dimensional condylar reconstruction using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Xi

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To present and validate a semi-automatic segmentation protocol to enable an accurate 3D reconstruction of the mandibular condyles using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Approval from the regional medical ethics review board was obtained for this study. Bilateral mandibular condyles in ten CBCT datasets of patients were segmented using the currently proposed semi-automatic segmentation protocol. This segmentation protocol combined 3D region-growing and local thresholding algorithms. The segmentation of a total of twenty condyles was performed by two observers. The Dice-coefficient and distance map calculations were used to evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. RESULTS: The mean inter-observer Dice-coefficient was 0.98 (range [0.95-0.99]. An average 90th percentile distance of 0.32 mm was found, indicating an excellent inter-observer similarity of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. No systematic errors were observed in the currently proposed segmentation protocol. CONCLUSION: The novel semi-automated segmentation protocol is an accurate and reproducible tool to segment and render condyles in 3D. The implementation of this protocol in the clinical practice allows the CBCT to be used as an imaging modality for the quantitative analysis of condylar morphology.

  15. Policy Debate | Learning to Grow Beyond the Middle-Income Trap - Singapore as an Export Model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond Saner


    Full Text Available Editor’s note: These papers are a contribution to the ‘Policy Debate’ section of International Development Policy. In this section, academics, policy-makers and practioners engage in a dialogue on global development challenges. Papers are copy-edited but not peer-reviewed. Instead, the initial thematic contribution is followed by critical comments and reactions from scholars and/or policy-makers. This debate can be pursued on the Journal’s blog where you are invited to share your reflections under your name.In the initial paper ‘Learning to Grow’, the authors argue that a key challenge for middle-income countries is to avoid ‘the middle-income trap’. In this situation, economic growth has come to a halt and a country is unable to transition to the next level in part due to inadequacies in high-level human capital. Taking the example of Singapore as a country that has avoided the middle-income trap, the authors call for ‘a much closer alignment of policies for human capital and economic development’ and a ‘human capital focussed development strategy’. In his answer, Professor Gopinathan, from the National University of Singapore, analyses some key conditions that were crucial for Singapore’s success and questions whether the model could be exported to other contexts.

  16. Lanai: A small, fast growing tomato variety is an excellent model system for studying geminiviruses. (United States)

    Rajabu, C A; Kennedy, G G; Ndunguru, J; Ateka, E M; Tairo, F; Hanley-Bowdoin, L; Ascencio-Ibáñez, J T


    Geminiviruses are devastating single-stranded DNA viruses that infect a wide variety of crops in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Tomato, which is a host for more than 100 geminiviruses, is one of the most affected crops. Developing plant models to study geminivirus-host interaction is important for the design of virus management strategies. In this study, "Florida Lanai" tomato was broadly characterized using three begomoviruses (Tomato yellow leaf curl virus, TYLCV; Tomato mottle virus, ToMoV; Tomato golden mosaic virus, TGMV) and a curtovirus (Beet curly top virus, BCTV). Infection rates of 100% were achieved by agroinoculation of TYLCV, ToMoV or BCTV. Mechanical inoculation of ToMoV or TGMV using a microsprayer as well as whitefly transmission of TYLCV or ToMoV also resulted in 100% infection frequencies. Symptoms appeared as early as four days post inoculation when agroinoculation or bombardment was used. Symptoms were distinct for each virus and a range of features, including plant height, flower number, fruit number, fruit weight and ploidy, was characterized. Due to its small size, rapid growth, ease of characterization and maintenance, and distinct responses to different geminiviruses, "Florida Lanai" is an excellent choice for comparing geminivirus infection in a common host. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Strontium Ranelate Reduces the Fracture Incidence in a Growing Mouse Model of Osteogenesis Imperfecta. (United States)

    Shi, Changgui; Hu, Bo; Guo, Lei; Cao, Peng; Tian, Ye; Ma, Jun; Chen, Yuanyuan; Wu, Huiqiao; Hu, Jinquan; Deng, Lianfu; Zhang, Ying; Yuan, Wen


    Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a genetic bone dysplasia characterized by brittle bones with increased fracture risk. Although current treatment options to improve bone strength in OI focus on antiresorptive bisphosphonates, controlled clinical trials suggest they have an equivocal effect on reducing fracture risk. Strontium ranelate (SrR) is a promising therapy with a dual mode of action that is capable of simultaneously maintaining bone formation and reducing bone resorption, and may be beneficial for the treatment of OI. In this study, SrR therapy was investigated to assess its effects on fracture frequency and bone mass and strength in an animal model of OI, the oim/oim mouse. Three-week-old oim/oim and wt/wt mice were treated with either SrR or vehicle (Veh) for 11 weeks. After treatment, the average number of fractures sustained by SrR-treated oim/oim mice was significantly reduced compared to Veh-treated oim/oim mice. Micro-computed tomographic (μCT) analyses of femurs showed that both trabecular and cortical bone mass were significantly improved with SrR treatment in both genotypes. SrR significantly inhibited bone resorption, whereas bone formation indices were maintained. Biomechanical testing revealed improved bone structural properties in both oim/oim and wild-type (wt/wt) mice under the treatment, whereas no significant effects on bone brittleness and material quality were observed. In conclusion, SrR was able to effectively reduce fractures in oim/oim mice by improving bone mass and strength and thus represents a potential therapy for the treatment of pediatric OI. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  18. Wound Healing and Anti-Inflammatory Effect in Animal Models of Calendula officinalis L. Growing in Brazil (United States)

    Parente, Leila Maria Leal; Lino Júnior, Ruy de Souza; Tresvenzol, Leonice Manrique Faustino; Vinaud, Marina Clare; de Paula, José Realino; Paulo, Neusa Margarida


    Calendula officinalis is an annual herb from Mediterranean origin which is popularly used in wound healing and as an anti-inflammatory agent. In this study, the ethanolic extract, the dichloromethane, and hexanic fractions of the flowers from plants growing in Brazil were produced. The angiogenic activity of the extract and fractions was evaluated through the chorioallantoic membrane and cutaneous wounds in rat models. The healing activity of the extract was evaluated by the same cutaneous wounds model through macroscopic, morphometric, histopathologic, and immunohistochemical analysis. The antibacterial activity of the extract and fractions was also evaluated. This experimental study revealed that C. officinalis presented anti-inflammatory and antibacterial activities as well as angiogenic and fibroplastic properties acting in a positive way on the inflammatory and proliferative phases of the healing process. PMID:22315631

  19. Thermal conditions of the grape growing season within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine (on the example of Kharkiv region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Борис Шуліка


    Full Text Available The article analyzes the results of the thermal conditions observations within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine as one of the most important factors for successful cultivation of grapes, thus providing crop productivity. Considering the effect of thermal factors, it can be noted that the intensity and speed of life processes of plants are well- defined under temperature conditions only in the circumstances where other environmental factors are not limited. The thermal regime was initially taken into account in practice in XVII century. In XIX century the agro-climatic areas to grow grapes were determined in North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine. Detailed studies of agro-climatic conditions of specific areas can more thoroughly to make conclusions and recommendations for the cultivation of grapes as a whole in the territory, and specifically in those areas were given. In studying the thermal balance of the territory the average and extreme temperature should be paid attention to. Characteristic features of the thermal regime are given in this paper based on the study of atmospheric phenomena, geomorphology and territories with radiation influence and water flow regime. Thermal treatment is subjected to anthropogenic influence, and in cultivating tenants can use appropriate agricultural practices (conceal bushes, warm soil and air, and even crops in protective ground, in greenhouses. Characteristically, technology of greenhouses growers is even used in Kherson region. These data can be used in neighborhood and the adjacent areas, especially they are useful for the practice of growing grapes. The possibility of successful cultivation of dozens of grape varieties in the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine has been well-grounded.

  20. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard


    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  1. High resolution synchrotron imaging of wheat root hairs growing in soil and image based modelling of phosphate uptake. (United States)

    Keyes, Samuel D; Daly, Keith R; Gostling, Neil J; Jones, Davey L; Talboys, Peter; Pinzer, Bernd R; Boardman, Richard; Sinclair, Ian; Marchant, Alan; Roose, Tiina


    · Root hairs are known to be highly important for uptake of sparingly soluble nutrients, particularly in nutrient deficient soils. Development of increasingly sophisticated mathematical models has allowed uptake characteristics to be quantified. However, modelling has been constrained by a lack of methods for imaging live root hairs growing in real soils. · We developed a plant growth protocol and used Synchrotron Radiation X-ray Tomographic Microscopy (SRXTM) to uncover the three-dimensional (3D) interactions of root hairs in real soil. We developed a model of phosphate uptake by root hairs based directly on the geometry of hairs and associated soil pores as revealed by imaging. · Previous modelling studies found that root hairs dominate phosphate uptake. By contrast, our study suggests that hairs and roots contribute equally. We show that uptake by hairs is more localized than by roots and strongly dependent on root hair and aggregate orientation. · The ability to image hair-soil interactions enables a step change in modelling approaches, allowing a more realistic treatment of processes at the scale of individual root hairs in soil pores. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  2. 2D-gel spot detection and segmentation based on modified image-aware grow-cut and regional intensity information. (United States)

    Kostopoulou, E; Katsigiannis, S; Maroulis, D


    Proteomics, the study of proteomes, has been increasingly utilized in a wide variety of biological problems. The Two-Dimensional Gel Electrophoresis (2D-PAGE) technique is a powerful proteomics technique aiming at separation of the complex protein mixtures. Spot detection and segmentation are fundamental components of 2D-gel image analysis but remain arduous and difficult tasks. Several software packages and academic approaches are available for 2D-gel image spot detection and segmentation. Each one has its respective advantages and disadvantages and achieves a different level of success in dealing with the challenges of 2D-gel image analysis. A common characteristic of the available methods is their dependency on user intervention in order to achieve optimal results, a process that can lead to subjective and non-reproducible results. In this work, the authors propose a novel spot detection and segmentation methodology for 2D-gel images. This work introduces a novel spot detection and spot segmentation methodology that is based on a multi-thresholding scheme applied on overlapping regions of the image, a custom grow-cut algorithm, a region growing scheme and morphological operators. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated on real as well as synthetic 2D-gel images using well established statistical measures, including precision, sensitivity, and their weighted measure, F-measure, as well as volumetric overlap, volumetric error and volumetric overlap error. Experimental results show that the proposed methodology outperforms state-of-the-art software packages and methods proposed in the literature and results in more plausible spot boundaries and more accurate segmentation. The proposed method achieved the highest F-measure (94.8%) for spot detection and the lowest volumetric overlap error (8.3%) for the segmentation process. Evaluation against state-of-the-art 2D-gel image analysis software packages and techniques proposed in the literature

  3. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto


    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  4. Growing Pains

    CERN Multimedia

    Katarina Anthony


    Heat expands and cold contracts: it’s a simple thermodynamic rule. But when temperatures swing from 300 K to near-absolute zero, this rule can mean a contraction of more than 80 metres across the LHC’s 27-km-long cryogenic system. Keeping this growth in check are compensators (a.k.a. bellows), which shrink and stretch in response to thermodynamic changes. Leak tests and X-rays now underway in the tunnel have revealed that these “joints” might be suffering from growing pains…   This 25-μm weld crack is thought to be the cause of the helium leaks. Prior to the LS1 warm-up, CERN’s cryogenic experts knew of two points in the machine’s cryogenic distribution system that were leaking helium. Fortunately, these leaks were sufficiently small, confined to known sub-sectors of the cryogenic line and – with help from the vacuum team (TE-VSC) – could easily be compensated for. But as the machine warmed up f...

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.


    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  6. Levels of some heavy metals and nutritional compositions of cocoa beans from selected cocoa- growing areas in Ashanti and Western regions of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asante, Nnuro William


    In this study, the levels of six heavy metals namely: cadmium, lead, copper, manganese, iron and zinc were determined in cocoa beans from some cocoa-growing areas in the Western and Ashanti Regions of Ghana using atomic absorption spectroscopy. The metal levels in the cocoa beans from the Western Region, expressed in mg/ kg varied from 0.045 to 0.066 with mean value of 0.054 for cadmium, from 0.013 to 0.030 with mean value of 0.020 for lead, from 46.47 to 55.17 with mean value of 51.98 for copper, from 48.36 to 64.65 with mean value of 55.18 for manganese, from 43.80 to 53.11 with the mean value of 47.51 iron and from 43.04 to 52.06 with the mean value of 48.29 for zinc. Those of Ashanti Region ranged from 0.050 to 0.065 with the mean value of 0.056 for cadmium, from 0.014 to 0.020 with the mean value of 0.017 for lead, from 47.43 to 54.17 with the mean value of 49.10 for copper, from 47.15 to 57.34 with the mean value of 54.62 for manganese, from 50.23 to 63.87 with the mean value of 54.63 for iron and from 53.02 to 58.71 with the mean value of 56.49 for zinc. Upon proximate analyses of four of the samples chosen at random (two samples from each region), it was found that all the samples were of high fat and carbohydrate content. The percentages of fat were 45.52%, 43.85%, 45.57% and 36.72% in samples from Kasapen, Asampaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Those of carbohydrates were 32.56%, 32.08%, 31.62% and 42.88% in cocoa samples from Kasapen, Asempaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Levels of proteins were 14.34%, 13.97%, 13.74% and 13.91% in the samples from the towns as listed in the order above. The samples from Kasapen in the Western Region gave 3.15%, 3.40% and 1.03% for moisture, ash and fibre contents respectively. The moisture, ash and fibre content in samples from Asempaneye also in the Western Region were 4.39%, 3.69% and 1.02% respectively. Samples from Bekwai in the Ashanti Region gave 4.46%, 3.52% and1.09% for moisture, ash and fibre contents

  7. Regional air quality in the four corners studys region: modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nochumson, D.


    A two-dimensional Eulerian air pollutant transport model was used in an air quality study of the Four Corners region conducted for the National Commission on Air Quality. The regional modeling methodology and some sample results from the regional air quality analysis are presented. One major advantage of the regional transport model that was employed is that its solution involves the calculation of transfer coefficients that relate emissions to ambient concentrations and deposition and which can be used repeatedly to evaluate alternative scenarios and regulatory policies which represent different emission source configurations. The regional transport model was used in the calculation of the concentration and deposition of SO/sub 2/, SO/sub 4/, and primary fine particulates; and these estimates were used as inputs to regional atmospheric visibility and mass budget calculations. Previous studies have shown that the methods used in the regional air quality analysis give good agreement when comparing observed and estimated values.

  8. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  9. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  10. Volatile composition and antimicrobial activity of the essential oil of Artemisia absinthium growing in Western Ghats region of North West Karnataka, India. (United States)

    Joshi, Rajesh Kumar


    Artemisia absinthium L. (Asteraceae) is an aromatic, herbaceous, perennial plant commonly known as wormwood. Artemisia absinthium is traditionally used as an anthelmintic, antiseptic, antispasmodic and for bacillary dysentery, cancers and neurodegenerative diseases. The essential oil composition of the leaves of A. absinthium growing in the Western Ghats region of North West Karnataka, India, is investigated for the first time in this region and the oil was screened for antimicrobial properties. The chemical composition of the hydro-distilled essential oil obtained from the leaves of A. absinthium was analyzed by GC-FID and GC/MS. The oil was tested against five Gram positive and, eight Gram negative bacteria and three fungi by the tube-dilution method at a concentration range of 5000-9 µg/mL. Results demonstrated that the leave oil was found to be rich in oxygenated monoterpenes (39.7% and 41.1%). The major compounds were borneol (18.7% and 16.7%), methyl hinokiate (11.9% and 12.9%), isobornyl acetate (4.0% and 4.7%), β-gurjunene (3.8% and 4.4%) and caryophyllene oxide (3.7% and 4.3%), among 64 identified compounds, comprising 91.7% and 90.1% of the total oil. The organism Micrococcus luteus was found more susceptible to the oil with an MIC value of 25 ± 4 µg/mL, followed by Micrococcus flavus, Bacillus subtilis, Penicillium chrysogenum and Aspergillus fumigatus with MIC values of 58 ± 8, 65 ± 8, 84 ± 15 and 91 ± 13 µg/mL, respectively. The oil showing antimicrobial activity against bacteria and fungi validate the traditional use of the plant as an antiseptic.

  11. Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model (United States)

    Skakun, Sergii; Franch, Belen; Vermote, Eric; Roger, Jean-Claude; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Justice, Christopher; Kussul, Nataliia


    Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

  12. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev


    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  13. Variation in agricultural CO2 fluxes during the growing season, collected from more than ten eddy covariance towers in the Mississippi Delta Region (United States)

    Runkle, B.; Suvocarev, K.; Reba, M. L.; Novick, K. A.; White, P.; Anapalli, S.; Locke, M. A.; Rigby, J.; Bhattacharjee, J.


    Agriculture is unique as an anthropogenic activity that plays both a large role in carbon and water cycling and whose management activities provide a key opportunity for responses to climate change. It is therefore especially crucial to bring field observations into the modeling community, test remote sensing products, encourage policy debate, and enable carbon offsets markets that generate revenue and fund climate-smart activities. The accurate measurement of agricultural CO2 exchange - both primary productivity and ecosystem respiration - in concert with evapotranspiration provides crucial information on agro-ecosystem functioning and improves our predictive capacity for estimating the impacts of climate change. In this study we report field measurements from more than 10 eddy covariance towers in the Lower Mississippi River Basin taken during the summer months of 2016. Many towers, some recently deployed, are being aggregated into a regional network known as Delta-Flux, which will ultimately include 15-20 towers by 2017. Set in and around the Mississippi Delta Region within Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, the network will collect flux, micrometeorological, and crop yield data in order to construct estimates of regional CO2 exchange. These time-series data are gap-filled using statistical and process-based models to generate estimates of summer CO2 flux. The tower network is comprised of sites representing widespread agriculture production, including rice, cotton, corn, soybean, and sugarcane; intensively managed pine forest; and bottomland hardwood forest. Unique experimental production practices are represented in the network and include restricted water use, bioenergy, and by-product utilization. Several towers compose multi-field sites testing innovative irrigation or management practices. Current mapping of agricultural carbon exchange - based on land cover layers and fixed crop emission factors - suggests an unconstrained carbon flux estimate in this

  14. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  15. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  16. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel


    . The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10-50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency...... for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16-42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models...

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.


    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  18. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray


    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  19. Development of Models for Regional Cardiac Surgery Centers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Choon Seon Park


    Full Text Available Background: This study aimed to develop the models for regional cardiac surgery centers, which take regional characteristics into consideration, as a policy measure that could alleviate the concentration of cardiac surgery in the metropolitan area and enhance the accessibility for patients who reside in the regions. Methods: To develop the models and set standards for the necessary personnel and facilities for the initial management plan, we held workshops, debates, and conference meetings with various experts. Results: After partitioning the plan into two parts (the operational autonomy and the functional comprehensiveness, three models were developed: the ‘independent regional cardiac surgery center’ model, the ‘satellite cardiac surgery center within hospitals’ model, and the ‘extended cardiac surgery department within hospitals’ model. Proposals on personnel and facility management for each of the models were also presented. A regional cardiac surgery center model that could be applied to each treatment area was proposed, which was developed based on the anticipated demand for cardiac surgery. The independent model or the satellite model was proposed for Chungcheong, Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang area, where more than 500 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. The extended model was proposed as most effective for the Gangwon and Jeju area, where more than 200 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. Conclusion: The operation of regional cardiac surgery centers with high caliber professionals and quality resources such as optimal equipment and facility size, should enhance regional healthcare accessibility and the quality of cardiac surgery in South Korea.

  20. Sarcopenia and piscines: the case for indeterminate-growing fish as unique genetic model organisms in aging and longevity research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob M Froehlich


    Full Text Available Sarcopenia and dynapenia pose significant problems for the aged, especially as life expectancy rises in developed countries. Current therapies are marginally efficacious at best, and barriers to breakthroughs in treatment may result from currently employed model organisms. Here, we argue that the use of indeterminate-growing teleost fish in skeletal muscle aging research may lead to therapeutic advancements not possible with current mammalian models. Evidence from a comparative approach utilizing the subfamily Danioninae suggests that the indeterminate growth paradigm of many teleosts arises from adult muscle stem cells with greater proliferative capacity, even in spite of smaller progenitor populations. We hypothesize that paired-box transcription factors, Pax3/7, are involved with this enhanced self-renewal and that prolonged expression of these factors may allow some fish species to escape, or at least forestall, sarcopenia/dynapenia. Future research efforts should focus on the experimental validation of these genes as key factors in indeterminate growth, both in the context of muscle stem cell proliferation and in prevention of skeletal muscle senescence.

  1. Risk Assessment of Repetitive Movements in Olive Growing: Analysis of Annual Exposure Level Assessment Models with the OCRA Checklist. (United States)

    Proto, A R; Zimbalatti, G


    In Italy, one of the main agricultural crops is represented by the cultivation of olive trees. Olive cultivation characterizes the Italian agricultural landscape and national agricultural economics. Italy is the world's second largest producer of olive oil. Because olive cultivation requires the largest labor force in southern Italy, the aim of this research was to assess the risk of biomechanical overload of the workers' upper limbs. The objective, therefore, was to determine the level of risk that workers are exposed to in each phase of the production process. In Calabria, the second most important region in Italy for both the production of olive oil and cultivated area, there are 113,907 olive farms (83% of all farms) and 250,000 workers. To evaluate the risk of repetitive movements, all of the work tasks performed by workers on 100 farms in Calabria were analyzed. A total of 430 workers were interviewed over the four-year research period. To evaluate the level of exposure to repetitive movements, the OCRA (occupational repetitive actions) checklist was adopted. This checklist was the primary analytical tool during the preliminary risk assessment and in a given working situation. The analysis suggested by the OCRA checklist starts with pre-assigned scores (increasing in value with intensification of risk) for each of four main risk factors and additional factors. Between 2010 and 2013, surveys were conducted using the OCRA checklist with the aim of verifying musculoskeletal risks. The results obtained from the study of 430 workers allowed us to identify the level of exposure to risk. This analysis was conducted in the workplace to examine in detail the repetitive movements performed by the workers. The research was divided into two phases: first to provide preliminary information on the different tasks performed in olive growing, and second to assign a percentage to each task of the total hours worked in a year. Based on the results, this method could well

  2. Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES) for quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of multiple sclerosis: intra- and inter-observer agreement variability: a comparison with manual contouring method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parodi, Roberto C.; Sardanelli, Francesco; Renzetti, Paolo; Rosso, Elisabetta; Losacco, Caterina; Ferrari, Alessandra; Levrero, Fabrizio; Pilot, Alberto; Inglese, Matilde; Mancardi, Giovanni L.


    Lesion area measurement in multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the key points in evaluating the natural history and in monitoring the efficacy of treatments. This study was performed to check the intra- and inter-observer agreement variability of a locally developed Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES), comparing them to those obtained using manual contouring (MC). From routine 1.5-T MRI study of clinically definite multiple sclerosis patients, 36 lesions seen on proton-density-weighted images (PDWI) and 36 enhancing lesion on Gd-DTPA-BMA-enhanced T1-weighted images (Gd-T1WI) were randomly chosen and were evaluated by three observers. The mean range of lesion size was 9.9-536.0 mm 2 on PDWI and 3.6-57.2 mm 2 on Gd-T1WI. The median intra- and inter-observer agreement were, respectively, 97.1 and 90.0% using GRES on PDWI, 81.0 and 70.0% using MC on PDWI, 88.8 and 80.0% using GRES on Gd-T1WI, and 85.8 and 70.0% using MC on Gd-T1WI. The intra- and inter-observer agreements were significantly greater for GRES compared with MC (P<0.0001 and P=0.0023, respectively) for PDWI, while no difference was found between GRES an MC for Gd-T1WI. The intra-observer variability for GRES was significantly lower on both PDWI (P=0.0001) and Gd-T1WI (P=0.0067), whereas for MC the same result was found only for PDWI (P=0.0147). These data indicate that GRES reduces both the intra- and the inter-observer variability in assessing the area of MS lesions on PDWI and may prove useful in multicentre studies. (orig.)

  3. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region.


    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo


    Bicycle transport has traditionally been underrepresented in traffic models, because historically the main focus has been on modelling more resource-intensive investments in motor traffic roads and public transport. In order to decrease road congestion and to reduce the related health and societal problems, there is a growing interest in promoting more sustainable transport systems, with a particular emphasis on the bicycle as a sustainable transport alternative. Accordingly, the objective of...

  4. Spatial variability in soil properties and diagnostic leaf characteristics of apple (Malus domestica) in apple growing region of Dheerkot Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjumend, T.; Abbasi, M. K.


    Scientific information on the spatial variability in soil properties and nutrient status is important for understanding ecosystem processes and evaluating agricultural land management practices. This study aims to characterize the spatial variation of selected soil properties and the nutrient status of ten representative sites of apple growing region, and also to evaluate the nutrient contents of apple leaves of the same sites from sub-division Dheerkot, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, (AJK) Pakistan. The sampling sites were: Hill, Chamankot, Chamyati-1 (upper), Chamyati-2 (lower), Dheerkot, Kotli, Karry, Sanghar, Neelabut, and Hanschoki. The treatments included; sites = 10; depths = 04 (0-15, 15-30, 30-45, and 45-60 cm) with 3 replications. Results indicated that texture of all the sites (except one) were loam or clay loam having silt and clay the dominant soil fractions. The soils were neutral to slightly alkaline, pH ranging from 7.2 to 8.3, non-saline, and moderately calcareous (CaCO/sub 3/ 0.00-8.97 percent). The nutrient index (NI) value for soil organic matter (SOM), available P and K were 2.5, 1.5 and 2.1 showing high, medium, and medium range, respectively. The concentration of AB-DTPA extractable Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn showed high levels of Fe (10.2-16.8 mg kg-1) and Mn (0.90-2.71 mg kg/sup -1/) while Zn (0.42-2.31 mg kg/sup -1/) deficiency was observed in few samples. All the sites were severely deficient in Cu concentration (1.35-2.05 mg kg/sup -1/). The diagnosis of apples leaves indicated that none of the samples was deficient in N (2.30-3.49 percent) and P (0.13-0.33 percent) while out of ten sites, nine sites showed severe deficiency of K (0.85-1.40 percent). The study demonstrated a significant variation in different physico-chemical properties of the soils collected from the same ecological region. In order to overcome the deficiency of some of the nutrients observed both in soil and plant samples, proper fertilization especially the use of organic manures is

  5. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim


    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  6. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.


    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  7. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen


    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  8. Regional models - Emerging research tools for synoptic meteorologists (United States)

    Keyser, Daniel; Uccellini, Louis W.


    A number of regional-scale numerical weather prediction models are discussed together with their application to the study of the structure and the dynamics of mesoscale phenomena. Consideration is given to investigations of natural phenomena (such as midlatitude cyclones and related baroclinic disturbances; upper-level jet-front systems; surface frontal zones, squall lines, and rain bands; mesoscale convective systems; and severe-storm environments) in which two operational models and four research models are used for regional-model studies. It is shown that these models provide investigators with four-dimensional dynamically consistent data sets to supplement and extend those available from observations.

  9. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping


    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  10. Stochastic modelling of regional archaeomagnetic series (United States)

    Hellio, G.; Gillet, N.; Bouligand, C.; Jault, D.


    We report a new method to infer continuous time-series of the declination, inclination and intensity of the magnetic field from archaeomagnetic data. Adopting a Bayesian perspective, we need to specify a priori knowledge about the time evolution of the magnetic field. It consists in a time correlation function that we choose to be compatible with present knowledge about the geomagnetic time spectra. The results are presented as distributions of possible values for the declination, inclination or intensity. We find that the methodology can be adapted to account for the age uncertainties of archaeological artefacts and we use Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore the possible dates of observations. We apply the method to intensity data sets from Mari, Syria and to intensity and directional data sets from Paris, France. Our reconstructions display more rapid variations than previous studies and we find that the possible values of geomagnetic field elements are not necessarily normally distributed. Another output of the model is better age estimates of archaeological artefacts.

  11. On the construction of a regional atmospheric climate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J. H.; Van Meijgaard, E.


    A Regional Atmospheric Climate Model which combines the physical parameterization package of the General Circulation or Climate Model (ECHAM) used at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, and the dynamics package of the Nordic - Dutch - Irish Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), has been...

  12. Evaluation of dynamic scaling of growing interfaces in EEG fluctuations of seizures in animal model of temporal lobe epilepsy. (United States)

    Martínez-González, Claudia Lizbeth; Balankin, Alexander; López, Tessy; Manjarrez-Marmolejo, Joaquín; Martínez-Ortiz, Efraín José


    Epileptic seizures, as a dynamic phenomenon in brain behavior, obey a scale-free behavior, frequently analyzed by electrical activity recording. This recording can be seen as a surface that roughens with time. Dynamic scaling studies roughening processes or growing interfaces. In this theory, a set of exponents -obtained from scale invariance properties- characterize rough interfaces growth. The aim of the present study was to investigate scaling behavior in EEG time series fluctuations of a chemical animal model of temporal lobe epilepsy, with dynamic scaling to detect changes on seizure onset. We analyzed local variables in different sampling intervals and estimated rough, scaling and dynamic exponents. Results exhibited long-range correlations in interictal activity. Results of renormalization and data collapsing confirmed that each epoch of EEG fluctuations for interictal, preictal and postictal collapse in a curve in different scales, each segment independently; remarkably, we found non-scaling behavior in seizures epochs. Data for the different sampling intervals for ictal period do not collapse in one curve, which implies that ictal activity does not exhibit the same scaling behavior than the other epochs. Statistical significant differences of growth exponent were found between interictal and ictal segment, while for scaling exponent, significant differences were found between interictal and postictal segment. These results confirm the potential of scaling exponents as characteristic parameters to detect changes on seizure onset, which suggests their use as inputs for analysis methods for seizure detection in long-term recordings, while changes in growth exponent are potentially useful for prediction purposes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da


    A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

  14. A multi-region approach to modeling subsurface flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwo, J.P.; Yeh, G.T.; Wilson, G.V.


    In this approach the media are assumed to contain n pore-regions at any physical point. Each region has different pore size and hydrologic parameters. Inter-region exchange is approximated by a linear transfer process. Based on the mass balance principle, a system of equations governing the flow and mass exchange in structured or aggregated soils is derived. This system of equations is coupled through linear transfer terms representing the interchange among different pore regions. A numerical MUlti-Region Flow (MURF) model, using the Galerkin finite element method to facilitate the treatment of local and field-scale heterogeneities, is developed to solve the system of equations. A sparse matrix solver is used to solve the resulting matrix equation, which makes the application of MURF to large field problems feasible in terms of CPU time and storage limitations. MURF is first verified by applying it to a ponding infiltration problem over a hill slope, which is a single-region problem and has been previously simulated by a single-region model. Very good agreement is obtained between the results from the two different models. The MURF code is thus partially verified. It is then applied to a two-region fractured medium to investigate the effects of multi-region approach on the flow field. The results are comparable to that obtained by other investigators. (Author) (15 refs., 6 figs., tab.)

  15. Modelling regional land use: the quest for the appropriate method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soltani Largani, A.


    The demand for spatially-explicit predictions of regional crop-yield patterns is increasing. An approach to assess a priori and/or future ranges of alternative scenarios spatial yield patterns at the regional scale is the application of mechanistic crop growth simulation models (CGSMs) (e.g.

  16. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M


    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  17. A model established of a 'Embryo' bubble growing-up some visible bubble in bubble chamber and its primary theory calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Zipiao; Sheng Xiangdong


    A model of a 'embryo' bubble growing up a visible bubble in the bubble chamber is established. Through primary theory calculation it is shown that the 'embryo' bubble is not only absorbing quantity of heat, but also some molecules get into the 'embryo' bubble from its environment. It is explained reasonably that the radius of bubbles in bubble camber is different for the same energies of neutrons and proton. The track of neutron in bubble camber is long and thin, and the track of proton in bubble camber is wide and short. It is explained reasonably that the bubble radius of the incident particles with more charges which there are the same energies will be wider than that of the incident particles with less charges in the track. It is also explained reasonably that there are a little different radius of the bubbles of a track at the some region. It can be predicted theoretically that there should be big bubbles to burst when incident particles enter the bubble chamber at first. The sensitivity and the detective efficiency of bubble camber can be enhanced by choosing appropriate work matter. (authors)

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  2. Assessing the Genetic Diversity of Agrobacterium Tumefaciens in CA Walnut Growing Regions and Resistance to the Biocontrol Agent, A. Rhizogenes K84 (United States)

    Crown gall of walnut (Juglans sp.), caused by the bacterium Agrobacterium tumefaciens, greatly impacts the CA walnut industry. To determine the genetic diversity of A. tumefaciens throughout the Central Valley of CA, we collected isolates from ten walnut growing counties. A total of 340 A. tumefac...

  3. Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.


    This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

  4. Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment (United States)

    Diallo, Ismaïla; Giorgi, Filippo; Stordal, Frode


    We evaluate the performance of the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 coupled to a one dimensional lake model for Lake Malawi (also known as Lake Nyasa in Tanzania and Lago Niassa in Mozambique) in simulating the main characteristics of rainfall and near surface air temperature patterns over the region. We further investigate the impact of the lake on the simulated regional climate. Two RCM simulations, one with and one without Lake Malawi, are performed for the period 1992-2008 at a grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the model within a corresponding 25 km resolution run ("mother domain") encompassing all Southern Africa. The performance of the model in simulating the mean seasonal patterns of near surface air temperature and precipitation is good compared with previous applications of this model. The temperature biases are generally less than 2.5 °C, while the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the region matches observations well. Moreover, the one-dimensional lake model reproduces fairly well the geographical pattern of observed (from satellite measurements) lake surface temperature as well as its mean month-to-month evolution. The Malawi Lake-effects on the moisture and atmospheric circulation of the surrounding region result in an increase of water vapor mixing ratio due to increased evaporation in the presence of the lake, which combines with enhanced rising motions and low-level moisture convergence to yield a significant precipitation increase over the lake and neighboring areas during the whole austral summer rainy season.

  5. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko


    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  6. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey


    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  7. Review of the recent regional climate modelling studies of the Adriatic region (United States)

    Guettler, Ivan


    Adriatic region is characterized by the distinct topographical and coastline structures. This leads to the specific climate regimes, and the formation of e.g. strong bora/Bura flows. The results of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative and most recent DHMZ simulations using regional climate model RegCM4 will be presented and discussed. Planetary boundary layer quantities such as the near-surface air temperature, total precipitation amount and near-surface wind will be explored in terms of both systematic errors of the RCMs and their possible climate change projections for the rest of the 21st century. Finally, recent results concerning analytical modelling of the katabatic and anabatic flows will be presented, and possible further refinements of these models will be suggested.

  8. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J


    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  9. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization (United States)


    of these models is unrealistic because the Earth’s crust appears to be the most structurally and compositionally heterogeneous part of the planet ...segment is extracted (heavy dash) and scaled to fill the gap ( heav arrows). Scaling is performed in the g(p) domain, using a factor that varies linearly...Phys. Earth Planet . Interiors, 113, 11-24. Bonddr, I., and V. Ryaboy (1997). Regional travel-time tables for the Baltic Shield region, Technical


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev


    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  11. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.


    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  12. Enhancing Infant Mental Health Using a Capacity-Building Model: A Case Study of a Process Evaluation of the "Ready, Steady, Grow" Initiative (United States)

    O'Farrelly, Christine; Guerin, Suzanne; Victory, Gerard


    Infant mental health (IMH) is best promoted through a continuum of services underpinned by strong service capacity. However, service providers often lack fundamental IMH knowledge and skills. Using the Ready, Steady, Grow (RSG) initiative as a case study of a capacity-building model (P., Hawe, L., King, M., Noort, C., Jordens, & B., Llyod,…

  13. A feed-forward neural network for modeling feeding behavior of group-housed grow-finish pigs with respect to thermal conditions (United States)

    Feeding patterns of pigs in the grow-finish phase have been investigated for use in management decisions, identifying sick animals, and determining genetic differences within a herd. Development of models to predict swine feeding behavior has been limited due the large number of potential environmen...

  14. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects. (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide


    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов


    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI:

  16. Modeling Hydrological Processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico Border Region (United States)

    Samimi, M.; Jahan, N. T.; Mirchi, A.


    Efficient allocation of limited water resources to competing use sectors is becoming increasingly critical for water-scarce regions. Understanding natural and anthropogenic processes affecting hydrological processes is key for efficient water management. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model governing hydrologic processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico border region. Our study area includes the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID), which manages water resources to support irrigated agriculture. The region is facing water resources challenges associated with chronic water scarcity, over-allocation, diminishing water supply, and growing water demand. Agricultural activities rely on conjunctive use of Rio Grande River water supply and groundwater withdrawal. The model is calibrated and validated under baseline conditions in the arid and semi-arid climate in order to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and regional water availability. We highlight the importance of calibrating the crop growth parameters, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge to provide a realistic representation of the hydrological processes and water availability in the region. Furthermore, limitations of the model and its utility to inform stakeholders will be discussed.

  17. Photoionization Modelling of HII Region with Stellar Wind Bubble Inside (United States)

    Kozel, R. V., Melekh, B. Ya.


    The last results obtained from optimized photoionization modelling of HII region show a lack of Lyman continuum (Lyc) quanta in wavelength range 912 - 504 Å. It could be explained by the ionizing radiation penetrating the very thin and dense envelope of nebular plasma with high density. Presence of such envelope in HII region surrounding a starburst could be explained by a superwind bubble formation. For detailed analysis the multicomponent grid of photoionization models was culculated with ISM grains included. In this paper the comparative analysis of emission line spectra obtained from multicomponent modelling is presented.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Feng-Yao; Zhu, Qing-Feng [Astronomy Department, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026 (China); Li, Juan; Wang, Jun-Zhi [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai (China); Zhang, Jiang-Shui, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail: [Center for Astrophysics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou (China)


    We have developed a full numerical method to study the gas dynamics of cometary ultracompact H ii regions, and associated photodissociation regions (PDRs). The bow-shock and champagne-flow models with a 40.9/21.9 M{sub ⊙} star are simulated. In the bow-shock models, the massive star is assumed to move through dense (n = 8000 cm{sup −3}) molecular material with a stellar velocity of 15 km s{sup −1}. In the champagne-flow models, an exponential distribution of density with a scale height of 0.2 pc is assumed. The profiles of the [Ne ii] 12.81 μm and H{sub 2} S(2) lines from the ionized regions and PDRs are compared for two sets of models. In champagne-flow models, emission lines from the ionized gas clearly show the effect of acceleration along the direction toward the tail due to the density gradient. The kinematics of the molecular gas inside the dense shell are mainly due to the expansion of the H ii region. However, in bow-shock models the ionized gas mainly moves in the same direction as the stellar motion. The kinematics of the molecular gas inside the dense shell simply reflects the motion of the dense shell with respect to the star. These differences can be used to distinguish two sets of models.

  19. Groundwater Development Stress: Global-Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling. (United States)

    Alley, William M; Clark, Brian R; Ely, David M; Faunt, Claudia C


    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  20. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia


    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  1. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.


    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  2. Growing a market economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.


    This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view of society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.

  3. Regional knowledge economy development indicative planning system conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Davidovna Vaisman


    Full Text Available The subject of the research is the processes of Russian knowledge economy development, its progress on the regional level is taken as a theme, which determined the purpose of research: development of the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model. The methodological base of the research is the knowledge economy concept and supply and demand theory, the methods of comparative and system analysis and theoretical modeling; common generalization and classification methods and regression models are used in the work. As a result, we managed to create the regional knowledge economy development indicative planning method conceptual model, which includes the choice of the types of indicative plans and the justification for the complex of indicators according to the stated requirements to this complex. The model of supply and demand for knowledge dependency from the knowledge cost, allowing to determine the acceptable range for the indicators proceeding from the demand and supply levels and their interrelation, is developed. The obtained results may be used by the regional government authorities while planning the regional innovative development and consulting companies while making the proposals for this development

  4. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland


    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  5. India Should Develop Its Naval Power in View of Growing Potential Security Concerns Connected to China’s Non-Transparent Intentions in the Indian Ocean Region (United States)


    of their respective national interests. China is interested in getting access to the markets and oil resources of the Middle East and Africa through...Ocean,” (RUMLAE Research Paper no. 16-08, Adelaide Law School, Research Unit on Military Law and Ethics ), 2. 74 Srini Sitaraman, “Is South Asia Moving...The World’s Five Fastest-Growing Economies,” World Finance, 7 April 2017, accessed 19 April 2017, markets /the-worlds


    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  9. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization (United States)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.


    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation δ2H and δ18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  10. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla


    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  11. A dynamic growth model for prediction of nutrient partitioning and manure production in growing-finishing pigs: Model development and evaluation. (United States)

    Strathe, A B; Danfær, A; Jørgensen, H; Kebreab, E


    Nutrient loading and air emissions from swine operations raise environmental concerns. The objective of the study was to describe and evaluate a mathematical model (Davis Swine Model) of nutrient partitioning and predict manure excretion and composition on a daily basis. State variables of the model were AA, fatty acids, and a central pool of metabolites that supplied substrate for lipid synthesis and oxidation. The model traced the fate of ingested nutrients and water through digestion and intermediary metabolism into body protein, fat, water, and ash, where body protein and fat represented the body constituent pools. It was assumed that fluxes of metabolites follow saturation kinetics, depending on metabolite concentrations. The main inputs to the model were diet nutrient composition, feed intake, water-to-feed ratio, and initial BW. First, the model was challenged with nutrient partitioning data and then with excretion data. The data had 48 different feeding regimes with contrasting energy and lysine intakes at 2 different stages of growth. The overall observed and predicted mean were 109 and 112 g/d for protein deposition and 132 and 136 g/d for lipid deposition respectively, suggesting minor mean bias. Root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) was used in evaluation of the model for its predictive power. The overall RMSPE was 2.2 and 4.1 g/d for protein and lipid deposition, respectively. The excretion database used for evaluation of the model was constructed from 150 digestibility trials using growing-finishing pig diets that had a wide range of nutrient chemical composition. Nutrient and water excretion were quantified using the principle of mass conservation. The average daily observed and predicted manure production was 3.79 and 3.99 kg/d, respectively, with a RMSPE of 0.49 kg/d. There was a good agreement between observed and predicted mean fecal N output (9.9 and 9.8 g/d, respectively). Similarly, the overall observed and predicted mean urine N output

  12. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  13. Growing an Emerging Research University (United States)

    Birx, Donald L.; Anderson-Fletcher, Elizabeth; Whitney, Elizabeth


    The emerging research college or university is one of the most formidable resources a region has to reinvent and grow its economy. This paper is the first of two that outlines a process of building research universities that enhance regional technology development and facilitate flexible networks of collaboration and resource sharing. Although the…

  14. SST Diurnal Variability: Regional Extent & Implications in Atmospheric Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob L.


    The project Sea Surface Temperature Diurnal Variability: Regional Extent and Implications in Atmospheric Modeling (SSTDV: R.EX.- IM.A.M.) was initiated within the framework of the European Space Agency's Support to Science Element (ESA STSE). The main focus is twofold: i) to characterize...... and quantify regional diurnal warming from the experimental MSG/SEVIRI hourly SST fields, for the period 2006-2012. ii) To investigate the impact of the increased SST temporal resolution in the atmospheric model WRF, in terms of modeled 10-m winds and surface heat fluxes. Withing this context, 3 main tasks...... SST variability on atmospheric modeling is the prime goal of the third and final task. This will be examined by increasing the temporal resolution of the SST initial conditions in WRF and by evaluating the WRF included diurnal scheme. Validation of the modeled winds will be performed against 10m ASAR...

  15. The Regional Nature of Global Challenges. A Need and Strategy for Integrated Regional Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hibbard, Kathleen A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Janetos, Anthony C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)


    In this paper, we explore the regional nature of global environmental challenges. We take a broad approach by examining the scientific foundation that is needed to support policy and decision making and identifying some of the most important barriers to progress that are truly scale-dependent. In so doing, we hope to show that understanding global environmental changes requires understanding a number of intrinsically regional phenomena, and that successful decision making likewise requires an integrated approach that accounts for a variety of regional Earth system processes—which we define to include both human activities and environmental systems that operate or interact primarily at sub-continental scales. Understanding regional processes and phenomena, including regional decision-making processes and information needs, should thus be an integral part of the global change research agenda. To address some of the key issues and challenges, we propose an integrated regional modeling approach that accounts for the dynamic interactions among physical, ecological, biogeochemical, and human processes and provides relevant information to regional decision makers and stakeholders.

  16. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue


    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita


    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  18. Modeling regional cropland GPP by empirically incorporating sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence into a coupled photosynthesis-fluorescence model (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Guanter, L.; Van der Tol, C.; Joiner, J.; Berry, J. A.


    Global sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) retrievals are currently available from several satellites. SIF is intrinsically linked to photosynthesis, so the new data sets allow to link remotely-sensed vegetation parameters and the actual photosynthetic activity of plants. In this study, we used space measurements of SIF together with the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to simulate regional photosynthetic uptake of croplands in the US corn belt. SCOPE couples fluorescence and photosynthesis at leaf and canopy levels. To do this, we first retrieved a key parameter of photosynthesis model, the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax), from field measurements of CO2 and water flux during 2007-2012 at some crop eddy covariance flux sites in the Midwestern US. Then we empirically calibrated Vcmax with apparent fluorescence yield which is SIF divided by PAR. SIF retrievals are from the European GOME-2 instrument onboard the MetOp-A platform. The resulting apparent fluorescence yield shows a stronger relationship with Vcmax during the growing season than widely-used vegetation index, EVI and NDVI. New seasonal and regional Vcmax maps were derived based on the calibration model for the cropland of the corn belt. The uncertainties of Vcmax were also estimated through Gaussian error propagation. With the newly derived Vcmax maps, we modeled regional cropland GPP during the growing season for the Midwestern USA, with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and LAI from MODIS product (MCD15A2). The results show the improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland productivity in comparisons with both flux tower and agricultural inventory data.

  19. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil


    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  20. Customization of regional climate model (RegCM4) over Indian region (United States)

    Nayak, S.; Mandal, M.; Maity, S.


    The regional climate model (RegCM4) is customized for 10-year climate simulation over Indian region through sensitivity studies on cumulus convection and land surface parameterization schemes. The model is configured over 30° E-120° E and 15° S-45° N at 30-km horizontal resolution with 23 vertical levels. Six 10-year (1991-2000) simulations are conducted with the combinations of two land surface schemes (BATS, CLM3.5) and three cumulus convection schemes (Kuo, Grell, MIT). The simulated annual and seasonal climatology of surface temperature and precipitation are compared with CRU observations. The interannual variability of these two parameters is also analyzed. The results indicate that the model simulated climatology is sensitive to the convection as well as land surface parameterization. The analysis of surface temperature (precipitation) climatology indicates that the model with CLM produces warmer (dryer) climatology, particularly over India. The warmer (dryer) climatology is due to the higher sensible heat flux (lower evapotranspiration) in CLM. The model with MIT convection scheme simulated wetter and warmer climatology (higher precipitation and temperature) with smaller Bowen ratio over southern India compared to that with the Grell and Kuo schemes. This indicates that a land surface scheme produces warmer but drier climatology with sensible heating contributing to warming where as a convection scheme warmer but wetter climatology with latent heat contributing to warming. The climatology of surface temperature over India is better simulated by the model with BATS land surface model in combination with MIT convection scheme while the precipitation climatology is better simulated with BATS land surface model in combination with Grell convection scheme. Overall, the modeling system with the combination of Grell convection and BATS land surface scheme provides better climate simulation over the Indian region.

  1. Assessing The Policy Relevance of Regional Air Quality Models (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    This work presents a framework for discussing the policy relevance of models, and regional air quality models in particular. We define four criteria: 1) The scientific status of the model; 2) Its ability to address primary environmental concerns; 3) The position of modeled environmental issues on the political agenda; and 4) The role of scientific input into the policy process. This framework is applied to current work simulating the transport of nitric acid in Asia with the ATMOS-N model, to past studies on air pollution transport in Europe with the EMEP model, and to future applications of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Models-3. The Lagrangian EMEP model provided critical input to the development of the 1994 Oslo and 1999 Gothenburg Protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transbound- ary Air Pollution, as well as to the development of EU directives, via its role as a component of the RAINS integrated assessment model. Our work simulating reactive nitrogen in Asia follows the European example in part, with the choice of ATMOS-N, a regional Lagrangian model to calculate source-receptor relationships for the RAINS- Asia integrated assessment model. However, given differences between ATMOS-N and the EMEP model, as well as differences between the scientific and political cli- mates facing Europe ten years ago and Asia today, the role of these two models in the policy process is very different. We characterize the different aspects of policy relevance between these models using our framework, and consider how the current generation US EPA air quality model compares, in light of its Eulerian structure, dif- ferent objectives, and the policy context of the US.

  2. RETADD: a Regional Trajectory And Diffusion-Deposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Begovich, C. L.; Murphy, B. D.; Nappo, Jr., C. J.


    The Regional Trajectory and Diffusion-Deposition Model (RETADD) is based upon a version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory's Regional-Continental Scale Transport, Diffusion, and Deposition Model. The FORTRAN IV computer model uses a trajectory analysis technique for estimating the transport and long-range diffusion of material emitted from a point source. The wind trajectory portion of the code uses observed upper air winds to compute the transport of the material. Ground level concentrations and depositions are computed by using the Gaussian plume equation for wind trajectories projected forward in time. Options are included to specify an upper bound for the mixed layer and a chemical decomposition rate for the effluent. The limitations to the technique are discussed, the equations and model are described, and listings of the program, input, and output are included.

  3. World Model in the European Gothic Novel and Regional Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zvolimbovskaya


    Full Text Available The article deals with a specificity of the world model in the European Gothic novel and its regional context. The model of the world and the concept of a person are considered as the basic criteria of modern humanitarian knowledge. The object of study is presented by the novels of Charlotte Bronte “Jane Eyre”, Abraham «Bram» Stoker “Dracula” and others.

  4. Wine-growing establishment. A building complex serving an industrial model for a century (1870 – 1970

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena Manzini


    Full Text Available The wine industry in the province of Mendoza, Argentina as modern industrial was developed from the late nineteenth century. The decline starting in the 1970s, and triggered the second modernization wine since the 1980s. The functional requirements of the first modernization wine required both housing construction and production, giving rise to so-called wine-growing establishment. The wineries of these establishment, are the buildings used to make wine. The rest of the constructions are used as support for such activity. The functional units required in establishments, have varied over time, were adapted according to the different production needs of the moment. The wine-growing establishment that were built in this period can be found now adapted to the new requirements in production and operation, as well as in a complete abandonment. The group of buildings with various implements that are integrated testimonies, traces of other realities and knowledge that occurred in them before. Therefore, the aim to the present work is to perform a historical analysis of the evolution from architectural materiality 1870-1970; focused on understanding its growth and the distribution and location of the buildings, that they are closely integrated into the contextual framework belonging

  5. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval (United States)

    Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.


    In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

  6. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study (United States)

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.


    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev


    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  8. On Some Oikonymic Models of the Eastern Lake Onega Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina V. Zakharova


    Full Text Available The paper analyzes several models of settlement naming present in Eastern Lake Onega region and reflecting different stages of its ethnolinguistic history. The author focuses on oikonyms suffixed with -itsy/-itchi and those containing Balto-Fennic words kontu, kondu, kond ‘peasant household’ and selgä, vuara ‘mountain’. The areal analysis shows that oikonyms in -itsy/-itchi resulted from adaptation of Vepsian and Karelian names and outline the ways of ancient migrations of the Russians from Lake Ladoga region to Svir River and Lake Onega regions (Prisvirye and Obonezhye, Eastern Lake Onega region being a peripheral zone of the area traced by the model in question. The author argues that the few settlement names with the stem Kond- have relatively late origins, most likely Vepsian, though for some toponyms the Karelian origin is not to be ruled out. The low productivity of the selgä oikonymic model and the absence of settlement names with the determinant -vara can be explained by the historical dominance of the naming patterns using the Russian term gora ‘mountain’ which brings this region closer to the territory of the Russian North. The areal, statistic and linguistic analysis of the settlement names of Eastern Lake Onega region testifies to its marginal position as related to the Vepsian territories on the South, as well as the Karelian territories on the West and the Northern Russian lands on the East. This peripheral, marginal position of the region is due to its geographic features, first and foremost, to its association with the transit waterway which was, in the past, the Vodla River.

  9. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob


    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...


    NARCIS (Netherlands)



    We present new high-resolution observations of the central region in the late-type spiral galaxy M100 (NGC 4321) supplemented by three-dimensional numerical modeling of stellar and gas dynamics, including star formation (SF). Near-infrared imaging has revealed a small bulge of 4'' effective

  11. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.


    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  12. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 117; Issue 5. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors. Someshwar Das Raghavendra Ashrit Gopal Raman Iyengar Saji Mohandas M Das Gupta John P George E N Rajagopal Surya Kanti Dutta. Volume 117 ...

  13. Determining business models for financial sustainability in regional health information organizations (RHIOs): a review. (United States)

    Maffei, Roxana; Burciago, Daniel; Dunn, Kim


    Regional health information organizations (RHIOs) have the potential to alleviate today's health care problems by granting providers access to a supported body of clinical information for all patients in a given region. While the promise of and enthusiasm for RHIOs is immense, the issue of their financial sustainability remains unclear. It has been said that the business model supporting a regional or national health information network is as essential, if not more essential, than the technology that makes it feasible. Currently, there is a clear lack of concrete business models implemented in RHIOs' projects. This article reports the results of a literature review of the current status of the adaptation and implementation of business models by RHIOs for successful financial sustainability. Based on the review, this article also attempts to evaluate the existing financial situation of RHIOs to determine and recommend the best models of economic sustainability. Significant findings include RHIOs' present financial environment, planning, and self-sustainability methods. Future studies will be needed as RHIOs continue to grow and move toward the implementation phase of their development.

  14. A Novel Region-Growing Based Semi-Automatic Segmentation Protocol for Three-Dimensional Condylar Reconstruction Using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xi, Tong; Schreurs, Ruud; Heerink, Wout J.; Berge, Stefaan J.; Maal, Thomas J. J.


    Objective: To present and validate a semi-automatic segmentation protocol to enable an accurate 3D reconstruction of the mandibular condyles using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). Materials and Methods: Approval from the regional medical ethics review board was obtained for this study.

  15. A Novel Region-Growing Based Semi-Automatic Segmentation Protocol for Three-Dimensional Condylar Reconstruction Using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xi, T.; Schreurs, R.; Heerink, W.J.; Berge, S.J.; Maal, T.J.


    OBJECTIVE: To present and validate a semi-automatic segmentation protocol to enable an accurate 3D reconstruction of the mandibular condyles using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Approval from the regional medical ethics review board was obtained for this study.

  16. Hydroclimatology of the Nile: results from a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed


    Full Text Available This paper presents the result of the regional coupled climatic and hydrologic model of the Nile Basin. For the first time the interaction between the climatic processes and the hydrological processes on the land surface have been fully coupled. The hydrological model is driven by the rainfall and the energy available for evaporation generated in the climate model, and the runoff generated in the catchment is again routed over the wetlands of the Nile to supply moisture for atmospheric feedback. The results obtained are quite satisfactory given the extremely low runoff coefficients in the catchment. The paper presents the validation results over the sub-basins: Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara river, the Sudd swamps, and the Main Nile for the period 1995 to 2000. Observational datasets were used to evaluate the model results including radiation, precipitation, runoff and evaporation data. The evaporation data were derived from satellite images over a major part of the Upper Nile. Limitations in both the observational data and the model are discussed. It is concluded that the model provides a sound representation of the regional water cycle over the Nile. The sources of atmospheric moisture to the basin, and location of convergence/divergence fields could be accurately illustrated. The model is used to describe the regional water cycle in the Nile basin in terms of atmospheric fluxes, land surface fluxes and land surface-climate feedbacks. The monthly moisture recycling ratio (i.e. locally generated/total precipitation over the Nile varies between 8 and 14%, with an annual mean of 11%, which implies that 89% of the Nile water resources originates from outside the basin physical boundaries. The monthly precipitation efficiency varies between 12 and 53%, and the annual mean is 28%. The mean annual result of the Nile regional water cycle is compared to that of the Amazon and the Mississippi basins.

  17. Technical study for inflector and central region of high intensity central region model cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Hongjuan; Lu Yinlong; Zhang Tianjue; Li Zhenguo; Jia Xianlu; Guan Fengping; Wang Zhenhui; Lin Jun; Lin Yuzheng


    The central region model (CRM) cyclotron is the experimental platform for the key technology study of a high intensity beam cyclotron. In thia paper we introduce the spiral inflector and central region designed for the CRM cyclotron, including the physical design, the numerical control machining and the installation precision control techniques. The shape of electrodes is complex, and machining with a strict tolerance must be done by a numerical control machine tool with the number of its axles no less that 4. The electrodes of central region were finished by using 3-axle machine tools. The size of gaps between the ground and Dee tip is very important, a special device was made to guarantee the installation precision, and the error of gaps was controlled within ±0.05 mm. (authors)

  18. Impacts of short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire on a ground nesting bird in the central hardwoods region of North America (United States)

    Pittman, H. Tyler; Krementz, David G.


    Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or large

  19. Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia (United States)

    Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

    A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

  20. Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.


    Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

  1. Projected changes in Malawi's growing season (United States)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.; Chimphamba, James; McCusker, Brent


    Regional climate model projections at 30-km resolution are used to predict future mid-century and late-century growing season changes over Malawi due to global warming under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 business-as-usual emissions forcing scenario. Three different methods for estimating growing season characteristics are applied and evaluated. All three methods yield reasonable growing season length, onset, and demise date estimates over Malawi given the wide range of uncertainty of the observations. The projections indicate the likelihood for a shorter growing season in the future over Malawi south of 13.5°S. At mid-century the growing season length is predicted to be 20-40 % (20-55 days) shorter over the southernmost districts and 5-20 % (5-30 days) shorter over the central districts. By late-century the length is predicted to be 25-55 % (20-70 days) shorter with significant differences extending into northern Malawi. The shorter growing season is primarily associated with an earlier demise date, as no significant change in the onset date is predicted. Analysis of the regional circulation and horizontal moisture flux transport indicates that the earlier demise is associated with an intensification of the thermal low over the Kalahari Desert to the south and west of Malawi and an expansion of the mid-tropospheric Kalahari anticyclone over southern Africa. The stronger thermal low/anticyclone enhances the moisture flux divergence over Malawi suppressing the convective activity at the end of the wet season.

  2. Modeling optical and UV polarization of AGNs. III. From uniform-density to clumpy regions (United States)

    Marin, F.; Goosmann, R. W.; Gaskell, C. M.


    Context. A growing body of evidence suggests that some, if not all, scattering regions of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are clumpy. The inner AGN components cannot be spatially resolved with current instruments and must be studied by numerical simulations of observed spectroscopy and polarization data. Aims: We run radiative transfer models in the optical/UV for a variety of AGN reprocessing regions with different distributions of clumpy scattering media. We obtain geometry-sensitive polarization spectra and images to improve our previous AGN models and their comparison with the observations. Methods: We use the latest public version 1.2 of the Monte Carlo code stokes presented in the first two papers of this series to model AGN reprocessing regions of increasing morphological complexity. We replace previously uniform-density media with up to thousands of constant-density clumps. We couple a continuum source to fragmented equatorial scattering regions, polar outflows, and toroidal obscuring dust regions and investigate a wide range of geometries. We also consider different levels of fragmentation in each scattering region to evaluate the importance of fragmentation for the net polarization of the AGN. Results: In comparison with uniform-density models, equatorial distributions of gas and dust clouds result in grayer spectra and show a decrease in the net polarization percentage at all lines of sight. The resulting polarization position angle depends on the morphology of the clumpy structure, with extended tori favoring parallel polarization while compact tori produce orthogonal polarization position angles. In the case of polar scattering regions, fragmentation increases the net polarization unless the cloud filling factor is small. A complete AGN model constructed from the individual, fragmented regions can produce low polarization percentages (<2%), with a parallel polarization angle for observer inclinations up to 70° for a torus half opening angle of 60°. For

  3. Modeling of air currents in the Gulf Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Ellis, J.S.; Foster, C.S.; Foster, K.T.; Baskett, R.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.; Schalk, W.W.


    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability modeled the wind flow in the Gulf Region in order to make projections of the Kuwait oil fires pollution dispersion. Extensive meteorological models incorporating explicit terrain influences to the flow fields were routinely employed through a six month international assessment support effort organized by the World Meteorological Organization and US scientific research agencies. Results show generally close agreement with visible imagery of the smoke plumes as detected by meteorological satellites. However, there are some examples of significant disagreement or failure of the meteorological models. These failures are most likely directly linked to missing or unavailable weather observations

  4. Growth and convergence in a two-region model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funke, Michael; Strulik, Holger


    The paper discusses the impact and implications of Korean unification by setting up a two-region endogenous growth model. The numerical solutions are based on the formal analytical model, and have been calibrated so that they reflect the observed features of the North and South Korean economies....... The numerical solutions provide evidence about the speed of convergence and the large amount of interregional transfers that are required to make the North Korean economy economically viable. We also model the impact of foreign aid, migration and borrowing abroad for the transition process...

  5. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang


    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  6. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.


    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  7. Growing media [Chapter 5 (United States)

    Douglass F. Jacobs; Thomas D. Landis; Tara Luna


    Selecting the proper growing medium is one of the most important considerations in nursery plant production. A growing medium can be defined as a substance through which roots grow and extract water and nutrients. In native plant nurseries, a growing medium can consist of native soil but is more commonly an "artificial soil" composed of materials such as peat...

  8. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  9. Crucible Grows Wide Silicon Ribbon (United States)

    Seidensticker, R.


    Inexpensive manufacture of solar cells may require quality silicon ribbon crystals. One way to produce them is by growing wide dendritic webs, which can be very long and have high structural perfection. Dendrites grow from supercooled melt, so width of ribbon depends on how wide a region of supercooled molten silicon can be maintained in crucible. Elongated geometry of suscepter/crucible/lid assembly allows molten silicon to supercool over a wider region -- a necessary condition for the growth of wide dendritic crystal ribbon.

  10. Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Günzel-Jensen


    Full Text Available In e-business freemium business models have become legitiate. However, current research provides litte insight on how the free and premium offring should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fil this gap by investiatig how the property ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initil life-cycle stages – opportunity recognitin, market entry, and market exploitatin. We fid that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initil life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons of trial-and-error, learning, exploratin, legitiizatin and resource acquisitin. A freemium business model can also serve as a nascent business model, though without a sustainable monetiatin component, for fiding a sustainable business model through a series of dynamic adjustments. With our fidings we contribute to the business model literature in three ways: First, our empirical fidings show the many-sidedness of the component ‘free’ in freemium business models. Free users are of importance for network building, exploratin and exploitatin and growth over tie. Moreover, free users enable directly and indirectly further resource acquisitin. Second, while previous literature has taken a stati perspectie, we contribute by illustratig the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new to the literature.

  11. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)


    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  12. Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J. J.


    Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western......, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively...... constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables....

  13. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)


    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  14. Numerical modelling of the Earth’s ionosphere F region (United States)

    Ostanin, P. A.; Kulyamin, D. V.; Dymnikov, V. P.


    This paper presents the first version of a new INM RAS Earth’s ionosphere F region dynamical model. A complete set of model equations is formulated taking into account all the key physical processes that form the global state of the ionospheric F region (plasma chemistry, ambipolar diffusion, wind transport, drift across magnetic lines). For the numerical solution, a splitting method based on the physical processes and geometric directions is proposed. The first stage of splitting in a quasi-two-dimensional approximation setting with a projection of ambipolar diffusion on the vertical direction is considered. It is numerically implemented stepwise using various difference schemes for three separate model formulations (taking into account diffusion only along the vertical direction, considering a realistic direction of diffusion along the magnetic field excluding and including a mixed derivative term). The applicability, efficiency, conservation, and monotonicity of these numerical methods are analyzed. The first numerical experiments show convergence of the numerical solution to a stationary vertical profile specific to the F region. The greatest consistency with the observed profiles is obtained in the mid-latitudes. Using the thus constructed model it is shown that the electron density profile is most sensitive to the neutral temperature and ionization level with qualitatively different structures of the corresponding modes of variability.

  15. Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg, Deborah [Rutgers University, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences (IMCS), New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Sobel, Adam H. [Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States); Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY (United States); Sun, Liqiang [Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY (United States)


    A regional climate model is used to investigate the mechanism of interdecadal rainfall variability, specifically the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, in the Sahel region of Africa. The model is the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEPs) Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), with a horizontal resolution of approximately equivalent to a grid spacing of 50 km, nested within the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), which in turn was forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Simulations for the July-September season of the individual years 1955 and 1986 produced wet conditions in 1955 and dry conditions in 1986 in the Sahel, as observed. Additional July-September simulations were run forced by SSTs averaged for each month over the periods 1950-1959 and the 1978-1987. These simulations yielded wet conditions in the 1950-1959 case and dry conditions in the 1978-1987 case, confirming the role of SST forcing in decadal variability in particular. To test the hypothesis that the SST influences Sahel rainfall via stabilization of the tropospheric sounding, simulations were performed in which the temperature field from the AGCM was artificially modified before it was used to force the regional model. We modified the original 1955 ECHAM4.5 temperature profiles by adding a horizontally uniform, vertically varying temperature increase, taken from the 1986-1955 tropical mean warming in either the AGCM or the NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. When compared to the 1955 simulations without the added tropospheric warming, these simulations show a drying in the Sahel similar to that in the 1986-1955 difference and to the decadal difference between the 1980s and 1950s. This suggests that the tropospheric warming may have been, at least in part, the agent by which the SST increases led to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s. (orig.)

  16. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F


    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  17. Exploring regional economic convergence in Romania. A spatial modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zizi GOSCHIN


    Full Text Available This paper explores spatial economic convergence in Romania, from the perspective of real GDP/capita, and examines how the shock of the recent economic crisis has affected the convergence process. Given the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the values of GDP per capita, we address the question of convergence in terms of both classic and spatial regression models, thus filling a gap in the Romanian literature on this topic. The empirical results seem to provide support for both absolute and relative beta divergence in GDP/capita, as well as sigma divergence among Romanian counties on the long run. This is the consequence of the two-speed regional development, with the capital region and some large cities thriving by attracting human capital and FDIs, while the lagging regions are systematically left behind. Failing to validate the neoclassical approach on convergence, our results rather support the new divergence theory based on polarization and centre-periphery inequality.

  18. Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.


    Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties

  19. A regional high resolution model of the marine mercury cycle. (United States)

    Bieser, J.; Daewel, U.; Schrum, C.


    One of the main sources for mercury intoxication is the uptake of methylmercury from sea food. However, only little is known about the dynamics of methylmercury in the marine environment and its accumulation along the food chain. To further our understanding of the pathways from anthropogenic emissions of elemental mercury to the bio-accumulation of methylmercury in fish we developed the first regional Eulerian three dimensional multi-media chemistry transport model (MECOSMO) that includes atmosphere, ocean, and ecosystem. The marine part of the model includes a complete representation of the marine ecosystem ranging from phytoplankton up to higher trophic levels, including fish. We used the MECOSMO model to reconstruct mercury concentrations in water and biota in the North- and Baltic Sea for the past 60 years. Based on our model we examined the natural short and longterm variability of the system as well as long term trends in the distribution and amount of methylmercury in water and fish. Based on our findings we show how models can be utilized to develop future measurement strategies for marine mercury. Finally, the presented modelling system can be used to project the impact of future perturbations in the system (i.e.: emission reductions, climate change, nutrient control) on the mercury accumulation in sea food. Thereby, supporting the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury on a regional scale by enabling us to estimate the impact of emission reductions on the marine mercury cycle.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Vateva


    Full Text Available From all cereals the oats is the culture that due to dietary and healthy impact on the human body becomes more sought after in the market. The residual products of oats after harvesting the grain such as straw and chaff are sought after for animal feed. The aim of this research is to test the potential opportunities of the spring naked oats variety "Mina", Bulgarian selection, grown on the principles of organic farming. The research is carried out in real ecological environment under field conditions of Sakar agro-ecological region. In ecological environment and without using of pesticides and mineral fertilizers the vegetative development of the spring naked oats variety "Mina" passes normally. The duration of the vegetation period ranges from 93 to 115 days. For this period the oats grew by an average of 69.7 cm. Under the ecological conditions of Sakar agro-region average yields of grain are 1292.830 kg/ha, and the quantity of straw is 1515.500 kg/ha. The yields of grain of spring naked oat variety "Mina" grown in ecological conditions are lower compared to the average yields of oats in the country for the same period with 452.50 kg/ha. This difference is not alarming considering the fact that the production of this variety oats is ecological clean and there is market demand for dietetic foods.

  1. Transglycosylated Starch Improves Insulin Response and Alters Lipid and Amino Acid Metabolome in a Growing Pig Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica A. Newman


    Full Text Available Due to the functional properties and physiological effects often associated with chemically modified starches, significant interest lies in their development for incorporation in processed foods. This study investigated the effect of transglycosylated cornstarch (TGS on blood glucose, insulin, and serum metabolome in the pre- and postprandial phase in growing pigs. Eight jugular vein-catheterized barrows were fed two diets containing 72% purified starch (waxy cornstarch (CON or TGS. A meal tolerance test (MTT was performed with serial blood sampling for glucose, insulin, lipids, and metabolome profiling. TGS-fed pigs had reduced postprandial insulin (p < 0.05 and glucose (p < 0.10 peaks compared to CON-fed pigs. The MTT showed increased (p < 0.05 serum urea with TGS-fed pigs compared to CON, indicative of increased protein catabolism. Metabolome profiling showed reduced (p < 0.05 amino acids such as alanine and glutamine with TGS, suggesting increased gluconeogenesis compared to CON, probably due to a reduction in available glucose. Of all metabolites affected by dietary treatment, alkyl-acyl-phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins were generally increased (p < 0.05 preprandially, whereas diacyl-phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines were decreased (p < 0.05 postprandially in TGS-fed pigs compared to CON. In conclusion, TGS led to changes in postprandial insulin and glucose metabolism, which may have caused the alterations in serum amino acid and phospholipid metabolome profiles.

  2. Physiopathological effects of the administration of chronic cyanide to growing goats--a model for ingestion of cyanogenic plants. (United States)

    Soto-Blanco, B; Górniak, S L; Kimura, E T


    Ingestion of cyanogenic plants, such as cassava and sorghum, has been associated with goitre and tropical pancreatic diabetes in both humans and animals. Thus, the objective of the present study was to determine the toxic effects on the thyroid and pancreas in growing goats of prolonged exposure to potassium cyanide (KCN). Thirty-four male goats were divided into five groups dosed with KCN at 0 (control). 0.3, 0.6, 1.2 or 3.0 mg/kg daily for 5 months. Blood samples were obtained in order to determine the glucose, cholesterol, thyroxine (T4), triiodothyronine (T3) and thiocyanate concentrations and for haematological studies; pancreas and thyroid gland were collected for histopathological study. The group receiving the highest dose of cyanide showed lower body weight gains and carcase weights and a decrease in plasma T3 concentrations compared to the control group. Reabsorption vacuoles in follicular colloid and normocytic normochromic anaemia were observed in the experimental animals. Inhibition of peripheral conversion of T4 to T3 is suggested. However, no diabetogenic effects were observed.

  3. And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics (United States)

    Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.


    We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

  4. Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Günzel-Jensen, Franziska; Holm, Anna B.


    directly and indirectly further resource acquisition. Second, while previous literature has taken a static perspective, we contribute by illustrating the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new...

  5. Comparison of CERES, WOFOST and SWAP models in simulating soil water content during growing season under different soil conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, J.; Trnka, M.; Hosch, J.; Žalud, Z.; Dubrovský, Martin


    Roč. 171, č. 3 (2004), s. 223-246 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/02/0827 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : Winter wheat * Spring barley * Soil water balance * Model evaluation * Ecological modeling Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.652, year: 2004

  6. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul


    Since 1979 a country-wide system of raingauges has been operated in Denmark in order to obtain a better basis for design and analysis of urban drainage systems. As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric approach the Partial Duration Series method is employed in the modelling of extreme ....... The application of the Bayesian approach is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto distributed exceedances. Finally, the aspect of including economic perspectives in the estimation of the design events is briefly discussed....... in Denmark cannot be justified. In order to obtain an estimation procedure at non-monitored sites and to improve at-site estimates a regional Bayesian approach is adopted. The empirical regional distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are used as prior information...

  7. A Collaborative Network Model for Agrifood Transactions on Regional Base (United States)

    Volpentesta, Antonio P.; Ammirato, Salvatore

    The paper deals with a collaborative agrifood network in a regional scenario where producers of high typical and quality goods and consumer groups are involved in agrifood transactions as well as information and knowledge exchanges through an e-business platform. While producers are engaged in providing consumers with useful and timely information about healthiness, environmentally friendliness and most importantly, food quality of their products, consumers are engaged in giving prompt and understandable feedbacks to the producers. In this sense, the network is a form of proactive learning community. Starting from some basic socio-economic assumptions on a reference territory, we present an organizational model that can be adopted to foster the development of the regional area where it is applied. An instantiation of the model for a selected territory (the District of High Quality Productions in Sibari, Calabria, Italy) and first results, coming from two pilot tests, have been summarized as well.

  8. Regional cooperation and environmental justice in transportation planning in Ohio : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report (United States)


    This report highlights key themes identified at the Regional Cooperation and Environmental Justice in Transportation Planning in Ohio Peer Exchange held on December 15, 2015 in Columbus, Ohio. The Regional Models of Cooperation Initiative, whic...

  9. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.


    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  10. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak


    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  11. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.


    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  12. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation (United States)

    Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.


    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

  13. Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering (United States)

    Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.


    Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

  14. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)


    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  15. Regional Air Quality Model Application of the Aqueous-Phase ... (United States)

    In most ecosystems, atmospheric deposition is the primary input of mercury. The total wet deposition of mercury in atmospheric chemistry models is sensitive to parameterization of the aqueous-phase reduction of divalent oxidized mercury (Hg2+). However, most atmospheric chemistry models use a parameterization of the aqueous-phase reduction of Hg2+ that has been shown to be unlikely under normal ambient conditions or use a non mechanistic value derived to optimize wet deposition results. Recent laboratory experiments have shown that Hg2+ can be photochemically reduced to elemental mercury (Hg) in the aqueous-phase by dissolved organic matter and a mechanism and the rate for Hg2+ photochemical reduction by dicarboxylic acids (DCA) has been proposed. For the first time in a regional scale model, the DCA mechanism has been applied. The HO2-Hg2+ reduction mechanism, the proposed DCA reduction mechanism, and no aqueous-phase reduction (NAR) of Hg2+ are evaluated against weekly wet deposition totals, concentrations and precipitation observations from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.7.1. Regional scale simulations of mercury wet deposition using a DCA reduction mechanism evaluated well against observations, and reduced the bias in model evaluation by at least 13% over the other schemes evaluated, although summertime deposition estimates were still biased by −31.4% against observations. The use of t

  16. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario


    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  17. Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

    KAUST Repository

    Goddard, Scott D.


    Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

  18. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo


    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  19. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.


    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  20. Modeling phenological responses of Inner Mongolia grassland species to regional climate change (United States)

    Li, Qiuyue; Xu, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao; Zhang, Lizhen; Li, Chao; Yang, Ning; Qi, Jiaguo


    Plant phenology is an important indicator of ecosystem dynamics and services. However, little is understood of its responses to climate change, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions such as arid and semi-arid grasslands. In this study, we analyzed a long-term climate and plant phenology dataset of thirteen grassland species in the Inner Mongolia of China, collected during 1981-2011 time period, to understand temporal patterns of plant phenology and then developed a simple chilling-adjusted physiological model to simulate phenological responses of each plant species to climate change. The results of regional climate analysis suggested that the minimum temperature was increasing at a greater rate than mean and maximum temperatures in the region and the climate variability had significant impacts on vegetation phenology. Chilling from an early stage in spring in general slowed down the phenological development in most plant species, although there were some inconsistencies among sites and years. Specifically, we found lower precipitation during green-up resulted in delayed flowering, which may attribute to plant self-adjustment strategy to respond changes in climate. These climate dependent phenologies were characterized by a simple physiological model. Scenario analysis suggested that by 2071-2100 significant shifts in plant phenology are expected in Inner Mongolia, including as much as 6-11 days earlier in green-up time and 8-11 days shorter in growing season due to earlier senescence.

  1. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  2. An analytical solution for the estimation of the critical available soil water fraction for a single layer water balance model under growing crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Brisson


    Full Text Available In the framework of simplified water balance models devoted to irrigation scheduling or crop modelling, the relative transpiration rate (the ratio of actual to maximal transpiration is assumed to decrease linearly when the soil dries out below a critical available water value. This value is usually expressed as a fraction, F, of the maximal available soil water content. The present work aims to use the basic laws governing water transfer through the plants at a daily time step to compute F dynamically as the crop grows. It can be regarded as an expansion of Slabbers' (1980 approach to crop growing conditions. Starting from the mathematical representation given by single-root models (Gardner, 1960, an analytical expression for F is derived, using simplified hypotheses. This expression accounts for plant attributes such as the mean root radius, the critical leaf water potential for stomatal closure and the root length density profile growing with the crop. Environmental factors such as soil type and atmospheric demand also influence F. The structural influence of soil comes from the required introduction of the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity in the single-root model. The shape of the root length density profile is assumed to be sigmoidal and a new profile is calculated at each value of the rooting depth. A sensitivity analysis of F to all those factors is presented. The first general result is that F decreases as the root system grows in depth. Differences in the shape of the root profile can be responsible for differential water stress sensitivity in the early stages of growth. Yet, low critical leaf water potential can compensate partially for a poor root profile. Conversely, F is relatively insensitive to the average root radius. F sensitivity to soil type seems somewhat artificial: given the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity formula, the soil sensitivity results from F being expressed as a fraction of the maximal available soil water content

  3. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold


    Any high-enthalpy unconventional geothermal projectcan be jeopardized by the uncertainty on the presence of the geothermal resource at depth. Indeed, for the majority of such projects the geothermal resource is deeply seated and, with the drilling costs increasing accordingly, must be located as precisely as possible to increase the chance of their economic viability. In order to reduce the "geological risk", i.e., the chance to poorly locate the geothermal resource, a maximum amount of information must be gathered prior to any drilling of exploration and/or operational well. Cross-interpretation from multiple disciplines (e.g., geophysics, hydrology, geomechanics …) should improve locating the geothermal resource and so the position of exploration wells ; this is the objective of the European project IMAGE (grant agreement No. 608553), under which the work presented here was carried out. As far as geomechanics is concerned, in situ stresses can have a great impact on the presence of a geothermal resource since they condition both the regime within the rock mass, and the state of the major fault zones (and hence, the possible flow paths). In this work, we propose a geomechanical model to assess the stress distribution at the regional scale (characteristic length of 100 kilometers). Since they have a substantial impact on the stress distributions and on the possible creation of regional flow paths, the major fault zones are explicitly taken into account. The Distinct Element Method is used, where the medium is modeled as fully deformable blocks representing the rock mass interacting through mechanically active joints depicting the fault zones. The first step of the study is to build the model geometry based on geological and geophysical evidences. Geophysical and structural geology results help positioning the major fault zones in the first place. Then, outcrop observations, structural models and site-specific geological knowledge give information on the fault

  4. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited) (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.


    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  5. Modeling fluvial erosion on regional to continental scales (United States)

    Howard, Alan D.; Dietrich, William E.; Seidl, Michele A.


    The fluvial system is a major concern in modeling landform evolution in response to tectonic deformation. Three stream bed types (bedrock, coarse-bed alluvial, and fine-bed alluvial) differ in factors controlling their occurrence and evolution and in appropriate modeling approaches. Spatial and temporal transitions among bed types occur in response to changes in sediment characteristics and tectonic deformation. Erosion in bedrock channels depends upon the ability to scour or pluck bed material; this detachment capacity is often a power function of drainage area and gradient. Exposure of bedrock in channel beds, due to rapid downcutting or resistant rock, slows the response of headwater catchments to downstream baselevel changes. Sediment routing through alluvial channels must account for supply from slope erosion, transport rates, abrasion, and sorting. In regional landform modeling, implicit rate laws must be developed for sediment production from erosion of sub-grid-scale slopes and small channels.

  6. Stepwise calibration procedure for regional coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models (United States)

    Labarthe, Baptiste; Abasq, Lena; de Fouquet, Chantal; Flipo, Nicolas


    Stream-aquifer interaction is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. Indeed, the groundwater component of hydrosystem and large scale heterogeneities control the regional flows towards the alluvial plains and the rivers. In second instance, the local distribution of the stream bed permeabilities controls the dynamics of stream-aquifer water fluxes within the alluvial plain, and therefore the near-river piezometric head distribution. In order to better understand the water circulation and pollutant transport in watersheds, the integration of these multi-dimensional processes in modelling platform has to be performed. Thus, the nested interfaces concept in continental hydrosystem modelling (where regional fluxes, simulated by large scale models, are imposed at local stream-aquifer interfaces) has been presented in Flipo et al (2014). This concept has been implemented in EauDyssée modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (900km2) part of a 11000km2 multi-layer aquifer system, located in the Seine basin (France). The hydrosystem modelling platform is composed of four spatially distributed modules (Surface, Sub-surface, River and Groundwater), corresponding to four components of the terrestrial water cycle. Considering the large number of parameters to be inferred simultaneously, the calibration process of coupled models is highly computationally demanding and therefore hardly applicable to a real case study of 10000km2. In order to improve the efficiency of the calibration process, a stepwise calibration procedure is proposed. The stepwise methodology involves determining optimal parameters of all components of the coupled model, to provide a near optimum prior information for the global calibration. It starts with the surface component parameters calibration. The surface parameters are optimised based on the comparison between simulated and observed discharges (or filtered discharges) at various locations. Once the surface parameters

  7. Modelling the development of mixing height in near equatorial region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samah, A.A. [Univ. of Malaya, Air Pollution Research Unit, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)


    Most current air pollution models were developed for mid-latitude conditions and as such many of the empirical parameters used were based on observations taken in the mid-latitude boundary layer which is physically different from that of the equatorial boundary layer. In the equatorial boundary layer the Coriolis parameter f is small or zero and moisture plays a more important role in the control of stability and the surface energy balance. Therefore air pollution models such as the OMLMULTI or the ADMS which were basically developed for mid-latitude conditions must be applied with some caution and would need some adaptation to properly simulate the properties of equatorial boundary layer. This work elucidates some of the problems of modelling the evolution of mixing height in the equatorial region. The mixing height estimates were compared with routine observations taken during a severe air pollution episodes in Malaysia. (au)

  8. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku


    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... weather events and (7) implications of the results for policy. A paper summarising the related MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project is also included. The second part of the issue contains 12 articles that focus in more detail on some of the themes summarised in the overarching papers....... The PRUDENCE results represent the first comprehensive, continental-scale intercomparison and evaluation of high resolution climate models and their applications, bringing together climate modelling, impact research and social sciences expertise on climate change....

  9. Techno-economic and Fluid Dynamics Analysis for Growing Microalgae with the Intent of Producing Biofuel Using a System Model (United States)

    Raffaeli, Leah R.

    Techno-economic and systems studies on microalgal growth scenarios to date are abbreviated and missing a number of important variables. By including these variables in a detailed model integrating biology, chemistry, engineering, and financial aspects, a more defined systems analysis is possible. Through optimizing the model productivity based on the resulting net profit, the system analysis results in a more accurate assessment of environmental and economic sustainability of specific algal growth scenarios. Photobioreactor algal growth scenario optimization in the system model has resulted in realistic engineering design requirements based on algal growth requirements and fluid dynamics analysis. Results show feasibility for photobioreactor growth scenarios to be economically sustainable when co-products are included, but definite technological advancements and productivity improvements must be made. The main factors inhibiting a cost effective photobioreactor growth scenario are culture density, temperature, and lighting distribution for solar illuminated photobioreactors, and lighting cost for artificially illuminated photobioreactors. Open pond algal growth scenarios do not show any prospect of economic or environmental sustainability with current technology due to the large amount of surface area required, inefficient water use, and low culture density. All algal growth scenarios are inferior to petro-diesel regarding energy inputs, carbon emissions, and environmental sustainability. No algal growth scenarios analyzed in this study meet the U.S. requirement of biofuel emitting at least 20% less carbon emissions than diesel from crude oil.

  10. Monitoring of nutrient limitation in growing E. coli: a mathematical model of a ppGpp-based biosensor. (United States)

    Pokhilko, Alexandra


    E. coli can be used as bacterial cell factories for production of biofuels and other useful compounds. The efficient production of the desired products requires careful monitoring of growth conditions and the optimization of metabolic fluxes. To avoid nutrient depletion and maximize product yields we suggest using a natural mechanism for sensing nutrient limitation, related to biosynthesis of an intracellular messenger - guanosine tetraphosphate (ppGpp). We propose a design for a biosensor, which monitors changes in the intracellular concentration of ppGpp by coupling it to a fluorescent output. We used mathematical modelling to analyse the intracellular dynamics of ppGpp, its fluorescent reporter, and cell growth in normal and fatty acid-producing E. coli lines. The model integrates existing mechanisms of ppGpp regulation and predicts the biosensor response to changes in nutrient state. In particular, the model predicts that excessive stimulation of fatty acid production depletes fatty acid intermediates, downregulates growth and increases the levels of ppGpp-related fluorescence. Our analysis demonstrates that the ppGpp sensor can be used for early detection of nutrient limitation during cell growth and for testing productivity of engineered lines.

  11. Protein and amino acid bioavailability of extruded dog food with protein meals of different quality using growing mink (Neovison vison) as a model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tjernsbekk, M. T.; Tauson, Anne-Helene; Matthiesen, Connie Frank


    The present study evaluated growing mink (Neovison vison) as a model for dietary protein quality assessment of protein meals used in extruded dog foods. Three foods with similar CP content but of different protein quality were produced using different protein meals. The protein meals varied...... by the European Pet Food Industry Federation. It was concluded that growth studies with mink kits can provide valuable information in protein quality assessment of extruded dog foods. Furthermore, the study showed that to ensure nutritional adequacy of dog food and to be able to compare protein quality of dog...

  12. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Jahn


    Full Text Available Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in the field of extreme weather events are discussed. Possible regional impacts of extreme weather events are collected, focusing on European cities. The human contributions to those impacts are emphasized. Furthermore, methodological aspects of economic impact assessment are discussed along a temporal and a sectoral dimension. Finally, common economic impact models are compared, analyzing their strengths and weaknesses.

  13. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czerny, Bozena; Li, Yan-Rong; Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof; Panda, Swayam; Wildy, Conor; Karas, Vladimir


    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  14. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)


    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  15. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.


    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  16. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischke, Peggy

    in light of changing dynamics in global energy markets” [Xinhua, 2014]. This highlights the strategic importance of China’s energy sector in the country’s national economic planning and its associated global impacts. China furthermore has a growing research and development budget and plays an increasing......, and (iii) benchmarking and visualizing associated global impacts of China’s “energy revolution”. The general framework of investigation was chosen as a cross-disciplinary and highly collaborative approach. Different quantitative-based, economic, technical, and financial planning tools are developed...... energy balance; (ii) a review and benchmarking exercise of 18 Chinese energy modelling tools followed by a discussion of the Chinese perspective towards a low-carbon economy; (iii) an energy system wide mapping of regional energy flows in China to evaluate main disparities; (iv) a coupling of two complex...

  17. Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali


    Full Text Available This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, the authors forecast house price inflation for five...

  18. Regional modeling of SOA formation under consideration of HOMs (United States)

    Gatzsche, Kathrin; Iinuma, Yoshiteru; Tilgner, Andreas; Berndt, Torsten; Poulain, Laurent; Wolke, Ralf


    Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is the major burden of the atmospheric organic particulate matter with about 140 - 910 TgC/yr (Hallquist et al., 2009). SOA particles are formed via the oxidation of volatile organic carbons (VOCs), where the volatility of the VOCs is lowered. Therefore, gaseous compounds can either nucleate to form new particles or condense on existing particles. The framework of SOA formation under natural conditions is very complex, because there are a variety of gas-phase precursors, atmospheric degradation pathways and formed oxidation products. Up to now, atmospheric models underpredict the SOA mass. Therefore, improved regional scale model implementations are necessary to achieve a better agreement between model predictions and field measurements. Recently, highly oxidized multifunctional organic compounds (HOMs) were found in the gas phase from laboratory and field studies (Jokinen et al., 2015, Mutzel et al., 2015, Berndt et al., 2016a,b). From box model studies, it is known that HOMs are important for the early aerosol growth, however they are not yet considered in mechanisms applied in regional models. The present study utilizes the state-of-the-art multiscale model system COSMO-MUSCAT (Wolke et al., 2012), which is qualified for process studies in local and regional areas. The established model system was enhanced by a kinetic partitioning approach (Zaveri et al., 2014) for the gas-to-particle transfer of oxidized VOCs. The framework of the partitioning approach and the gas-phase mechanism were tested in a box model and evaluated with chamber studies, before implementing in the 3D model system COSMO-MUSCAT. Moreover, HOMs are implemented in the same way for the regional SOA modeling. 3D simulations were performed with an equilibrium partitioning and diffusion dependent partitioning approach, respectively. The presentation will provide first 3D simulation results including comparisons with field measurements from the TROPOS field site

  19. A Global Model for Regional Phase Amplitude Prediction (United States)

    Phillips, W. S.; Fisk, M. D.; Stead, R. J.; Begnaud, M. L.; Yang, X.; Ballard, S.; Rautian, T. G.


    We use two-dimensional (2-D) models of regional phase attenuation, and absolute site effects, to predict amplitudes for use in high frequency discrimination and yield estimation schemes. We have shown that 2-D corrections reduce scatter in P/S ratios, thus improve discrimination power. This is especially important for intermediate frequencies (2-6 Hz), which travel further than the higher frequencies that are typically used for discrimination. Previous work has focused on national priorities; however, for use by the international community, attenuation and site models must cover as much of the globe as possible. New amplitude quality control (QC) methods facilitate this effort. The most important step is to cluster events spatially, take ratios to remove path and site effects, and require the relative amplitudes to match predictions from an earthquake source model with variable moment and corner frequency. Data can then be stacked to form summary amplitudes for each cluster. We perform similar QC and stacking operations for multiple channels at each station, and for closely spaced stations. Data are inverted using a simultaneous multi-band, multi-phase approach that employs absolute spectral constraints on well-studied earthquakes. Global parameterization is obtained using publically available GeoTess software that allows for variable grid spacing. Attenuation results show remarkable, high-resolution correlation with regional geology and heat flow. Our data set includes regional explosion amplitudes from many sources, including LLNL and Leo Brady data for North America, and Borovoye Archive and ChISS data for Asia. We see dramatic improvement in high frequency P/S discrimination, world wide, after correcting for 2-D path and site effects.

  20. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen


    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  1. Modeling Regional Pollution Episodes With The Ctm Mocage. (United States)

    Dufour, A.; Brocheton, F.; Amodei, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    Several regional ozone pollution episodes have been studied in the context of two recent extensive field campaigns in France: ESQUIF, in the Paris region and ES- COMPTE, in the vicinity of Marseilles. MOCAGE is an off-line multi-scale Chem- istry and Transport Model (CTM), driven by the operational numerical weather pre- diction models of Météo-France, ARPEGE and ALADIN. It covers from the global to the regional scale, by means of up to four levels of nested domains, and extends up to the middle stratosphere; thus, there is no need for external boundary conditions, neither on the horizontal or on the vertical. These original features allows to cover with MOCAGE a wide range of scientific applications, from routine air-pollution fore- casts to long-term simulations related to climate issues. The present study focuses on the simulation of regional-scale photo-oxidant episodes and on the impact on larger scales of the transport of ozone, of precursors and of reservoir species. The first ex- ample concerns a polluted episode of the ESQUIF campaign (IOP6). In addition to ground measurements, 8 flights have documented the situation, showing a diversity of chemical regimes. This variability is quite satisfactorily reproduced by the model. A special attention was also paid to vertical and horizontal exchanges, particularly to interactions between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. An interesting case of an ill-represented residual nocturnal plume in the simulation of ESQUIF IOP5 will be presented: during this IOP, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere was well characterized by four flights. Free troposphere concentrations of ozone appear to be well reproduced by the model, except for the intensity and vertical extent of a residual plume, which are overestimated. For the day after, in addition to a direct impact on surface concentrations, the simulated development of the boundary layer is found to be too slow ; both errors contribute to an

  2. Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Southworth, F.


    Regional evacuation modeling is treated as a five step process: involving vehicle trip generation, trip departure time, trip destination, and trip route selection modeling, supplemented by plan set-up and analysis procedures. Progress under each of these headings is reviewed and gaps in the process identified. The potential for emergency planners to make use of real time traffic data, resulting from the recent technical and economic revolutions in telecommunications and infrared traffic sensing, is identified as the single greatest opportunity for the near future; and some beginnings in the development of real time dynamic traffic modeling specifically geared to evacuation planning are highlighted. Significant data problems associated with the time of day location of large urban populations represent a second area requiring extensive research. A third area requiring much additional effort is the translation of the considerable knowledge we have on evacuee behavior in times of crisis into reliable quantitative measures of the timing of evacuee mobilization, notably by distance from the source of the hazard. Specific evacuation models are referenced and categorized by method. Incorporation of evacuation model findings into the definition of emergency planning zone boundaries is also discussed.

  3. Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui


    The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

  4. Some Challenges Posed by Coal Bed Methane Regional Assessment Modeling. (United States)

    Moore, Catherine R; Doherty, John; Howell, Stephen; Erriah, Leon


    Coal measures (coal bearing rock strata) can contain large reserves of methane. These reserves are being exploited at a rapidly increasing rate in many parts of the world. To extract coal seam gas, thousands of wells are drilled at relatively small spacing to depressurize coal seams to induce desorption and allow subsequent capture of the gas. To manage this process effectively, the effect of coal bed methane (CBM) extraction on regional aquifer systems must be properly understood and managed. Groundwater modeling is an integral part of this management process. However, modeling of CBM impacts presents some unique challenges, as processes that are operative at two very different scales must be adequately represented in the models. The impacts of large-scale gas extraction may be felt over a large area, yet despite the significant upscaling that accompanies construction of a regional model, near-well conditions and processes cannot be ignored. These include the highly heterogeneous nature of many coal measures, and the dual-phase flow of water and gas that is induced by coal seam depressurization. To understand these challenges, a fine-scale model was constructed incorporating a detailed representation of lithological heterogeneity to ensure that near-well processes and conditions could be examined. The detail of this heterogeneity was at a level not previously employed in models built to assess groundwater impacts arising from CBM extraction. A dual-phase reservoir simulator was used to examine depressurization and water desaturation processes in the vicinity of an extractive wellfield within this fine-scale model. A single-phase simulator was then employed so that depressurization errors incurred by neglecting near-well, dual-phase flow could be explored. Two models with fewer lithological details were then constructed in order to examine the nature of depressurization errors incurred by upscaling and to assess the interaction of the upscaling process with the

  5. Influence of Regional Climate Model spatial resolution on wind climates (United States)

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.


    Global and regional climate models are being run at increasingly fine horizontal and vertical resolution with the goal of increased skill. However, relatively few studies have quantified the change in modeled wind climates that derives from applying a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at varying resolutions, and the response to varying resolution may be highly non-linear since most models run in climate mode are hydrostatic. Thus, herein we examine the influence of grid-resolution on modelled wind speeds and gusts and derived extremes thereof over southern Scandinavia using output from the Rossby Centre (RCA3) RCM run at four different resolutions from 50 x 50 km to 6 x 6 km, and with two different vertical grid-spacings. Domain averaged fifty-year return period wind speeds and wind gusts derived using the method of moments approach to compute the Gumbel parameters, increase with resolution (Table 1), though the change is strongly mediated by the model grid-cell surface characteristics. Power spectra of the 3-hourly model time-step ‘instantaneous’ wind speeds and daily wind gusts at all four resolutions show clear peaks in the variance associated with bi-annual, annual, seasonal and synoptic frequencies. The variance associated with these peaks is enhanced with increased resolution, though not in a monotonic fashion, and is more marked in wind gusts than wind speeds. Relative to in situ observations, the model generally underestimates the variance, particularly associated with the synoptic time scale, even for the highest resolution simulations. There is some evidence to suggest that the change in the power spectra with horizontal resolution is less marked in the transition from 12.5 km to 6.25 km, than from 50 to 25 km, or 25 km to 12.5 km.Table 1. Domain averaged mean annual wind speed (U), 50-year return period extreme wind speed (U50yr) and wind gust (Gust50yr) (m/s) from the four RCA3 simulations at different resolution based on output from 1987-2008. The

  6. Aberrant Behaviours of Reaction Diffusion Self-organisation Models on Growing Domains in the Presence of Gene Expression Time Delays

    KAUST Repository

    Seirin Lee, S.


    Turing\\'s pattern formation mechanism exhibits sensitivity to the details of the initial conditions suggesting that, in isolation, it cannot robustly generate pattern within noisy biological environments. Nonetheless, secondary aspects of developmental self-organisation, such as a growing domain, have been shown to ameliorate this aberrant model behaviour. Furthermore, while in-situ hybridisation reveals the presence of gene expression in developmental processes, the influence of such dynamics on Turing\\'s model has received limited attention. Here, we novelly focus on the Gierer-Meinhardt reaction diffusion system considering delays due the time taken for gene expression, while incorporating a number of different domain growth profiles to further explore the influence and interplay of domain growth and gene expression on Turing\\'s mechanism. We find extensive pathological model behaviour, exhibiting one or more of the following: temporal oscillations with no spatial structure, a failure of the Turing instability and an extreme sensitivity to the initial conditions, the growth profile and the duration of gene expression. This deviant behaviour is even more severe than observed in previous studies of Schnakenberg kinetics on exponentially growing domains in the presence of gene expression (Gaffney and Monk in Bull. Math. Biol. 68:99-130, 2006). Our results emphasise that gene expression dynamics induce unrealistic behaviour in Turing\\'s model for multiple choices of kinetics and thus such aberrant modelling predictions are likely to be generic. They also highlight that domain growth can no longer ameliorate the excessive sensitivity of Turing\\'s mechanism in the presence of gene expression time delays. The above, extensive, pathologies suggest that, in the presence of gene expression, Turing\\'s mechanism would generally require a novel and extensive secondary mechanism to control reaction diffusion patterning. © 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  7. Regional dust storm modeling for health services: The case of valley fever (United States)

    Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Galgiani, John N.; Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Dacic, Milan; DiBiase, Scott; Prasad, Anup; El-Askary, Hesham


    On 5 July 2011, a massive dust storm struck Phoenix, Arizona (USA), raising concerns for increased cases of valley fever (coccidioidomycosis, or, cocci). A quasi-operational experimental airborne dust forecast system predicted the event and provides model output for continuing analysis in collaboration with public health and air quality communities. An objective of this collaboration was to see if a signal in cases of valley fever in the region could be detected and traced to the storm - an American haboob. To better understand the atmospheric life cycle of cocci spores, the DREAM dust model (also herein, NMME-DREAM) was modified to simulate spore emission, transport and deposition. Inexact knowledge of where cocci-causing fungus grows, the low resolution of cocci surveillance and an overall active period for significant dust events complicate analysis of the effect of the 5 July 2011 storm. In the larger context of monthly to annual disease surveillance, valley fever statistics, when compared against PM10 observation networks and modeled airborne dust concentrations, may reveal a likely cause and effect. Details provided by models and satellites fill time and space voids in conventional approaches to air quality and disease surveillance, leading to land-atmosphere modeling and remote sensing that clearly mark a path to advance valley fever epidemiology, surveillance and risk avoidance.

  8. A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction (United States)

    Chang, Chia-Bo


    Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

  9. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis


    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  10. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph


    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  11. Bone mineral properties in growing Col1a2(+/G610C) mice, an animal model of osteogenesis imperfecta. (United States)

    Masci, Marco; Wang, Min; Imbert, Laurianne; Barnes, Aileen M; Spevak, Lyudmila; Lukashova, Lyudmila; Huang, Yihe; Ma, Yan; Marini, Joan C; Jacobsen, Christina M; Warman, Matthew L; Boskey, Adele L


    The Col1a2(+/G610C) knock-in mouse, models osteogenesis imperfecta in a large old order Amish family (OOA) with type IV OI, caused by a G-to-T transversion at nucleotide 2098, which alters the gly-610 codon in the triple-helical domain of the α2(I) chain of type I collagen. Mineral and matrix properties of the long bones and vertebrae of male Col1a2(+/G610C) and their wild-type controls (Col1a2(+/+)), were characterized to gain insight into the role of α2-chain collagen mutations in mineralization. Additionally, we examined the rescuability of the composition by sclerostin inhibition initiated by crossing Col1a2(+/G610C) with an LRP(+/A214V) high bone mass allele. At age 10-days, vertebrae and tibia showed few alterations by micro-CT or Fourier transform infrared imaging (FTIRI). At 2-months-of-age, Col1a2(+/G610C) tibias had 13% fewer secondary trabeculae than Col1a2(+/+), these were thinner (11%) and more widely spaced (20%) than those of Col1a2(+/+) mice. Vertebrae of Col1a2(+/G610C) mice at 2-months also had lower bone volume fraction (38%), trabecular number (13%), thickness (13%) and connectivity density (32%) compared to Col1(a2+/+). The cortical bone of Col1a2(+/G610C) tibias at 2-months had 3% higher tissue mineral density compared to Col1a2(+/+); Col1a2(+/G610C) vertebrae had lower cortical thickness (29%), bone area (37%) and polar moment of inertia (38%) relative to Col1a2(+/+). FTIRI analysis, which provides information on bone chemical composition at ~7μm-spatial resolution, showed tibias at 10-days did not differ between genotypes. Comparing identical bone types in Col1a2(+/G610C) to Col1a2(+/+) at 2-months-of-age, tibias showed higher mineral-to-matrix ratio in trabeculae (17%) and cortices (31%). and in vertebral cortices (28%). Collagen maturity was 42% higher at 10-days-of-age in Col1a2(+/G610C) vertebral trabeculae and in 2-month tibial cortices (12%), vertebral trabeculae (42%) and vertebral cortices (12%). Higher acid-phosphate substitution

  12. Laboratory tools to quantify biogenic dissolution of rocks and minerals: a model rock biofilm growing in percolation columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz eSeiffert


    Full Text Available Sub-aerial biofilms (SAB are ubiquitous, self-sufficient microbial ecosystems found on mineral surfaces at all altitudes and latitudes. SABs, which are the principal causes of weathering on exposed terrestrial surfaces, are characterised by patchy growth dominated by associations of algae, cyanobacteria, fungi and heterotrophic bacteria. A recently developed in vitro system to study colonisation of rocks exposed to air included two key SAB participants - the rock-inhabiting ascomycete Knufia petricola (CBS 123872 and the phototrophic cyanobacterium Nostoc punctiforme ATCC29133. Both partners are genetically tractable and we used them here to study weathering of granite, K-feldspar and plagioclase. Small fragments of the various rocks or minerals (1 to 6 mm were packed into flow-through columns and incubated with 0.1% glucose and 10 µM thiamine-hydrochloride (90 µL.min-1 to compare weathering with and without biofilms. Dissolution of the minerals was followed by: analysing (i the degradation products in the effluent from the columns via Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectroscopy and (ii by studying polished sections of the incubated mineral fragment/grains using scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray analyses. K. petricola/N. punctiforme stimulated release of Ca, Na, Mg and Mn. Analyses of the polished sections confirmed depletion of Ca, Na and K near the surface of the fragments. The abrupt decrease in Ca concentration observed in peripheral areas of plagioclase fragments favoured a dissolution-reprecipitation mechanism. Percolation columns in combination with a model biofilm can thus be used to study weathering in closed systems. Columns can easily be filled with different minerals and biofilms, the effluent as well as grains can be collected after long-term exposure under axenic conditions and easily analysed.

  13. Probabilistic modeling of climate change impacts in permafrost regions (United States)

    Anisimov, O.


    model reanalysis were used to characterize the baseline climate in Northern Eurasia and evaluate regional uncertainties resulting from the differences between the databases. Additional uncertainty in predictive calculations was associated with ensemble climatic projections for the mid-21st century. Another type of uncertainty is imposed by the small-scale stochastic variations of environmental parameters that govern the response of permafrost to climate variations. We simulated the effect it may have on the state of permafrost using the following approach. In different calculations snow depth varied in the range ± 50% from the mean climatological value; lower vegetation (moss) height varied between 5 and 10 cm, and organic layer thickness - in the range 5-20 cm. The range of variation for each of the environmental parameters has been selected using observational data. Performance of the stochastic model was evaluated using the two-step procedure. At the first step calculated for individual years statistics of the seasonal thaw depth was tested against observations at selected 1 x 1 km permafrost sites representing different bioclimatic conditions along the Russian Arctic coast. At each site the calculated ensemble was in good agreement with observations indicating that the model captures the component of small-scale variability associated with the spatial heterogeneity of environmental parameters. In the second test the model successfully reproduces the interannual variability of the ensemble-mean thaw depths at each site in the period 1990-2007. The ultimate result of our study is the set of predictive probabilistic permafrost maps for the Northern Eurasia. Aside from portraying the "average" or "typical" active-layer thickness for the current and projected for the mid-21st century climate, such maps depict the probability of thaw depth exceeding given thresholds within specified regions. Such information has important implication in cold region engineering and risk

  14. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.


    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  15. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)


    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  16. Modeling drifting snow in Antarctica with a regional climate model: 2. Results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.


    This paper presents a model study of the impact of drifting snow on the lower atmosphere, surface snow characteristics, and surface mass balance of Antarctica. We use the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.1/ANT with a high horizontal resolution (27 km), equipped with a drifting snow routine

  17. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.


    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  18. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben


    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  19. The Economic Evaluation Model of the Use of the Intangible Resources Potential on the Example of Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Mikhalkina


    Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of assessing the potential use of intangible resources. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity of innovation-based economy, the growing role of intangible resources (human, social, organizational, intellectual and other kinds of capital in promoting economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. The paper proposes a verification method of the factors that characterize the potential use of intangible resources, affecting productivity. For a description of dependencies linear regression model was selected, also there was carried out an assessment of its parameters and performed Quality check of model. In the course of a capacity assessment intangible resource model constructing at the regional level was used regression analysis (the choice of indicator system, data collection and analysis, the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the choice of models and numerical estimation of its parameters, quality control model, assessment of the certain factors impact on the basis of the model. Also the factor analysis is used (matrix of factor loadings, and the classification on the basis of the factors selected regions is carried out. The regional clusterization of the intangible resources capacity will allow to make correct management decisions in the future.

  20. Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Derivation from regional analysis of streamflow recession curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Ali, Melkamu; Leng, Guoyong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Wang, Shaowen; Sivapalan, Murugesu


    Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall–runoff response, especially in steep terrain. Its contribution to total runoff is, however, poorly represented in the current generation of land surface models. The lack of physical basis of these common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation of the stormflow (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global land surface models. This paper is aimed at deriving regionalized parameterizations of the storage–discharge relationship relating to subsurface stormflow from a top–down empirical data analysis of streamflow recession curves extracted from 50 eastern United States catchments. Detailed regression analyses were performed between parameters of the empirical storage–discharge relationships and the controlling climate, soil and topographic characteristics. The regression analyses performed on empirical recession curves at catchment scale indicated that the coefficient of the power-law form storage–discharge relationship is closely related to the catchment hydrologic characteristics, which is consistent with the hydraulic theory derived mainly at the hillslope scale. As for the exponent, besides the role of field scale soil hydraulic properties as suggested by hydraulic theory, it is found to be more strongly affected by climate (aridity) at the catchment scale. At a fundamental level these results point to the need for more detailed exploration of the co-dependence of soil, vegetation and topography with climate.

  1. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.


    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  2. Photochemistry of an Urban Region using Observations and Numerical Modeling (United States)

    Cantrell, C. A.; Mauldin, L.; Mukherjee, A. D.; Flocke, F. M.; Pfister, G.; Apel, E. C.; Bahreini, R.; Blake, D. R.; Blake, N. J.; Campos, T. L.; Cohen, R. C.; Farmer, D.; Fried, A.; Guenther, A. B.; Hall, S. R.; Heikes, B.; Hornbrook, R. S.; Huey, L. G.; Karl, T.; Kaser, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Ortega, J. V.; O'Sullivan, D. W.; Richter, D.; Smith, J. N.; Tanner, D.; Townsend-Small, A.; Ullmann, K.; Walega, J.; Weibring, P.; Weinheimer, A. J.


    The chemistry of HOx radicals in the troposphere can lead to the production of secondary products such as ozone and aerosols, while volatile organic compounds are degraded. The production rates and identities of secondary products depend on the abundance of NOx and other parameters. The amounts of VOCs and NOx can also affect the concentrations of OH, HO2 and RO2. Comparison of observations and model-derived values of HOx species can provide one way to assess the completeness and accuracy of model mechanisms. The functional dependence of measure-model agreement on various controlling parameters can also reveal details of current understanding of photochemistry in urban regions. During the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE), conducted during the summer of 2014, observations from ground-based and airborne platforms were performed to study the evolution of atmospheric composition over the Denver metropolitan area. Of particular interest in FRAPPE was the assessment of the roles of mixing of emissions from oil and gas exploration and extraction, and those from confined animal production operations, with urban emissions (e.g. from transportation, energy production, and industrial processes) on air quality in the metropolitan and surrounding region. Our group made measurements of OH, HO2, and HO2 + RO2 from the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft platform using selected ion chemical ionization mass spectrometry. The C-130 was equipped with instrumentation for the observation of a wide variety of photochemical-related species and parameters. These data are used to assess the photochemical regimes encountered during the period of the study, and to quantitatively describe the chemical processes involved in formation of secondary products. One of the tools used is a steady state model for short-lived species such as those that we observed. This presentation summarizes the behavior of species that were measured during FRAPPE and what the observations reveal

  3. The rat as a model animal for the growing pig in determining ileal amino acid digestibility in soya and milk proteins. (United States)

    Rutherfurd, S M; Moughan, P J


    The growing pig is an established model animal for humans to determine protein digestibility to the end of the small intestine. An ileal amino acid digestibility assay based on the laboratory rat offers an alternative. True ileal amino acid digestibility in high quality refined protein sources was determined and compared between the laboratory rat and the growing pig. Both species of animals were fed their daily ration in nine separate meals. Ileal digesta were collected at slaughter and chromic oxide was used as an indigestible marker. For several of the amino acids examined, there were no significant (p digestibility, but for aspartic acid, serine, cysteine, methionine, tyrosine, phenylalanine and histidine, significant (p digestibility, for all amino acids and all diets, was 95.8% for the pig and 96.1% for the rat. Cysteine digestibility was highly variable between individual animals fed the same diet. The extent of amino acid digestion and absorption appears to be broadly similar across the two species, but some important differences in digestibility were recorded.

  4. Two-Step Production of Phenylpyruvic Acid from L-Phenylalanine by Growing and Resting Cells of Engineered Escherichia coli: Process Optimization and Kinetics Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Hou

    Full Text Available Phenylpyruvic acid (PPA is widely used in the pharmaceutical, food, and chemical industries. Here, a two-step bioconversion process, involving growing and resting cells, was established to produce PPA from l-phenylalanine using the engineered Escherichia coli constructed previously. First, the biotransformation conditions for growing cells were optimized (l-phenylalanine concentration 20.0 g·L-1, temperature 35°C and a two-stage temperature control strategy (keep 20°C for 12 h and increase the temperature to 35°C until the end of biotransformation was performed. The biotransformation conditions for resting cells were then optimized in 3-L bioreactor and the optimized conditions were as follows: agitation speed 500 rpm, aeration rate 1.5 vvm, and l-phenylalanine concentration 30 g·L-1. The total maximal production (mass conversion rate reached 29.8 ± 2.1 g·L-1 (99.3% and 75.1 ± 2.5 g·L-1 (93.9% in the flask and 3-L bioreactor, respectively. Finally, a kinetic model was established, and it was revealed that the substrate and product inhibition were the main limiting factors for resting cell biotransformation.

  5. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.


    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  6. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten


    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  7. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling. (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T


    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  8. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello


    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez-Ramírez, J. C.; Raga, A. C. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-543, 04510 D.F., México (Mexico); Lora, V. [Astronomisches Rechen-Institut, Zentrum für Astronomie der Universität, Mönchhofstr. 12-14, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Cantó, J., E-mail: [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-468, 04510 D. F., México (Mexico)


    We study analytically the effect of radiation pressure (associated with photoionization processes and with dust absorption) on spherical, hydrostatic H ii regions. We consider two basic equations, one for the hydrostatic balance between the radiation-pressure components and the gas pressure, and another for the balance among the recombination rate, the dust absorption, and the ionizing photon rate. Based on appropriate mathematical approximations, we find a simple analytic solution for the density stratification of the nebula, which is defined by specifying the radius of the external boundary, the cross section of dust absorption, and the luminosity of the central star. We compare the analytic solution with numerical integrations of the model equations of Draine, and find a wide range of the physical parameters for which the analytic solution is accurate.

  10. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul


    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  11. Methotrexate Toxicity in Growing Long Bones of Young Rats: A Model for Studying Cancer Chemotherapy-Induced Bone Growth Defects in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiaming Fan


    Full Text Available The advancement and intensive use of chemotherapy in treating childhood cancers has led to a growing population of young cancer survivors who face increased bone health risks. However, the underlying mechanisms for chemotherapy-induced skeletal defects remain largely unclear. Methotrexate (MTX, the most commonly used antimetabolite in paediatric cancer treatment, is known to cause bone growth defects in children undergoing chemotherapy. Animal studies not only have confirmed the clinical observations but also have increased our understanding of the mechanisms underlying chemotherapy-induced skeletal damage. These models revealed that high-dose MTX can cause growth plate dysfunction, damage osteoprogenitor cells, suppress bone formation, and increase bone resorption and marrow adipogenesis, resulting in overall bone loss. While recent rat studies have shown that antidote folinic acid can reduce MTX damage in the growth plate and bone, future studies should investigate potential adjuvant treatments to reduce chemotherapy-induced skeletal toxicities.

  12. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.


    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  13. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.


    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  14. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)


    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  15. Melting ice, growing trade?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Bensassi


    Full Text Available Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR. Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level.

  16. Regional 4-D modeling of the ionospheric electron density (United States)

    Schmidt, M.; Bilitza, D.; Shum, C. K.; Zeilhofer, C.


    The knowledge of the electron density is the key point in correcting ionospheric delays of electromagnetic measurements and in studying the ionosphere. During the last decade GNSS, in particular GPS, has become a promising tool for monitoring the total electron content (TEC), i.e., the integral of the electron density along the ray-path between the transmitting satellite and the receiver. Hence, geometry-free GNSS measurements provide informations on the electron density, which is basically a four-dimensional function depending on spatial position and time. In addition, these GNSS measurements can be combined with other available data including nadir, over-ocean TEC observations from dual-frequency radar altimetry (T/P, JASON, ENVISAT), and TECs from GPS-LEO occultation systems (e.g., FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC, CHAMP) with heterogeneous sampling and accuracy. In this paper, we present different multi-dimensional approaches for modeling spatio-temporal variations of the ionospheric electron density. To be more specific, we split the target function into a reference part, computed from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), and an unknown correction term. Due to the localizing feature of B-spline functions we apply tensor-product spline expansions to model the correction term in a certain multi-dimensional region either completely or partly. Furthermore, the multi-resolution representation derived from wavelet analysis allows monitoring the ionosphere at different resolutions levels. For demonstration we apply three approaches to electron density data over South America.

  17. Mixed models for selection of Jatropha progenies with high adaptability and yield stability in Brazilian regions. (United States)

    Teodoro, P E; Bhering, L L; Costa, R D; Rocha, R B; Laviola, B G


    The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters via mixed models and simultaneously to select Jatropha progenies grown in three regions of Brazil that meet high adaptability and stability. From a previous phenotypic selection, three progeny tests were installed in 2008 in the municipalities of Planaltina-DF (Midwest), Nova Porteirinha-MG (Southeast), and Pelotas-RS (South). We evaluated 18 families of half-sib in a randomized block design with three replications. Genetic parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction. Selection was based on the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genetic values method in three strategies considering: 1) performance in each environment (with interaction effect); 2) performance in each environment (with interaction effect); and 3) simultaneous selection for grain yield, stability and adaptability. Accuracy obtained (91%) reveals excellent experimental quality and consequently safety and credibility in the selection of superior progenies for grain yield. The gain with the selection of the best five progenies was more than 20%, regardless of the selection strategy. Thus, based on the three selection strategies used in this study, the progenies 4, 11, and 3 (selected in all environments and the mean environment and by adaptability and phenotypic stability methods) are the most suitable for growing in the three regions evaluated.

  18. Regional cooperation and bike/ped and transit connections : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report (United States)


    This report summarizes the presentations, key themes, and recommendations identified at a Regional Models of Cooperation peer exchange on October 24, 2016 in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Utah Transit Authority hosted peers from the Los Angeles Metropoli...

  19. Approach of regional gravity field modeling from GRACE data for improvement of geoid modeling for Japan (United States)

    Kuroishi, Y.; Lemoine, F. G.; Rowlands, D. D.


    The latest gravimetric geoid model for Japan, JGEOID2004, suffers from errors at long wavelengths (around 1000 km) in a range of +/- 30 cm. The model was developed by combining surface gravity data with a global marine altimetric gravity model, using EGM96 as a foundation, and the errors at long wavelength are presumably attributed to EGM96 errors. The Japanese islands and their vicinity are located in a region of plate convergence boundaries, producing substantial gravity and geoid undulations in a wide range of wavelengths. Because of the geometry of the islands and trenches, precise information on gravity in the surrounding oceans should be incorporated in detail, even if the geoid model is required to be accurate only over land. The Kuroshio Current, which runs south of Japan, causes high sea surface variability, making altimetric gravity field determination complicated. To reduce the long-wavelength errors in the geoid model, we are investigating GRACE data for regional gravity field modeling at long wavelengths in the vicinity of Japan. Our approach is based on exclusive use of inter- satellite range-rate data with calibrated accelerometer data and attitude data, for regional or global gravity field recovery. In the first step, we calibrate accelerometer data in terms of scales and biases by fitting dynamically calculated orbits to GPS-determined precise orbits. The calibration parameters of accelerometer data thus obtained are used in the second step to recover a global/regional gravity anomaly field. This approach is applied to GRACE data obtained for the year 2005 and resulting global/regional gravity models are presented and discussed.

  20. Regional Air Toxics Modeling in California's San Francisco Bay Area (United States)

    Martien, P. T.; Tanrikulu, S.; Tran, C.; Fairley, D.; Jia, Y.; Fanai, A.; Reid, S.; Yarwood, G.; Emery, C.


    Regional toxics modeling conducted for California's San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) estimated potential cancer risk from diesel particulate matter (DPM) and four key reactive toxic gaseous pollutants (1,3-butadiene, benzene, formaldehyde, and acetaldehyde). Concentrations of other non-cancerous gaseous toxic air contaminants, including acrolein, were also generated. In this study, meteorological fields generated from July and December periods in 2000 and emissions from 2005 provided inputs to a three-dimensional air quality model at high spatial resolution (1x1 km^2 grid), from which a baseline set of annual risk values was estimated. Simulated risk maps show highest annual average DPM concentrations and cancer risks were located near and downwind of major freeways and near the Port of Oakland, a major container port in the area. Population weighted risks, using 2000 census data, were found to be highest in highly urbanized areas adjacent to significant DPM sources. For summer, the ratio of mean measured elemental carbon to mean modeled DPM was 0.78, conforming roughly to expectations. But for winter the ratio is 1.13, suggesting other sources of elemental carbon, such as wood smoke, are important. Simulated annual estimates for benzene and 1-3, butadiene compared well to measured annual estimates. Simulated acrolein and formaldehyde significantly under-predicted observed values. Simulations repeated using projected 2015 toxic emissions predicted that potential cancer risk dropped significantly in all areas throughout the SFBA. Emissions estimates for 2015 included the State of California's recently adopted on-road truck rule. Emission estimates of DPM are projected to drop about 70% between 2005 and 2015 in the SFBA, with a commensurate reduction in potential cancer risks. However, due to projected shifts in population during this period, with urban densification close to DPM sources outpacing emission reductions, there are some areas where population-weighted risks

  1. Modeling and Partitioning of Regional Evapotranspiration Using a Satellite-Driven Water-Carbon Coupling Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongmin Hu


    Full Text Available The modeling and partitioning of regional evapotranspiration (ET are key issues in global hydrological and ecological research. We incorporated a stomatal conductance model and a light-use efficiency-based gross primary productivity (GPP model into the Shuttleworth–Wallace model to develop a simplified carbon-water coupling model, SWH, for estimating ET using meteorological and remote sensing data. To enable regional application of the SWH model, we optimized key parameters with measurements from global eddy covariance (EC tower sites. In addition, we estimated soil water content with the principle of the bucket system. The model prediction of ET agreed well with the estimates obtained with the EC measurements, with an average R2 of 0.77 and a root mean square error of 0.72 mm·day−1. The model performance was generally better for woody ecosystems than herbaceous ecosystems. Finally, the spatial patterns of ET and relevant model outputs (i.e., GPP, water-use efficiency and the ratio of soil water evaporation to ET in China with the model simulations were assessed.

  2. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion (United States)


    reflected waveleld travels sourcewards through the crustal passes through a CIO transition region such as that layer of the tramition region, and the region...the transition, why this transmitted energy is maximum near to increase the amplitudes in the second grid by as much as te tramition and decream a the

  3. Interactive 3D computer model of the human corneolimbal region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molvaer, Rikke K; Andreasen, Arne; Heegaard, Steffen


    in the limbal region: limbal epithelial crypts (LECs), limbal crypts (LCs) and focal stromal projections (FSPs). In all, eight LECs, 25 LCs and 105 FSPs were identified in the limbal region. The LECs, LCs and FSPs were predominantly located in the superior limbal region with seven LECs, 19 LCs and 93 FSPs...

  4. Modelling total sewage water discharge to a regional treatment plant.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.; Stricker, H.


    In the Netherlands, sewage water is often treated on a regional basis. In case of combined systems that are spread within a large region of several hundreds of square kilometers, reduction of the hydraulic capacity of the regional treatment plant seems possible, because of space-time variations in

  5. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models




    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  6. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Ter Maat


    Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

    The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

  7. Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Wang


    Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

  8. Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model (United States)

    Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, Scott J.; Donato, David I.; Claggett, Peter


    This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

  9. Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)


    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China

  10. High-Resolution Regional Phase Attenuation Models of the Iranian Plateau and Surrounding Regions (United States)


    Mayeda, W. R. Walter, L. Malagnini, and W. S. Phillips, Regional Attenuation in Northern California: A Comparison of Five 1D Q Methods, Bull. Seism ...regional phase amplitude tomography, Seism . Res. Lett., 80, p. 360, 2009. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 49 Priestley, K

  11. Modeling regional secondary organic aerosol using the Master Chemical Mechanism (United States)

    Li, Jingyi; Cleveland, Meredith; Ziemba, Luke D.; Griffin, Robert J.; Barsanti, Kelley C.; Pankow, James F.; Ying, Qi


    A modified near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM, version 3.2) with 5727 species and 16,930 reactions and an equilibrium partitioning module was incorporated into the Community Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to predict the regional concentrations of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the eastern United States (US). In addition to the semi-volatile SOA from equilibrium partitioning, reactive surface uptake processes were used to simulate SOA formation due to isoprene epoxydiol, glyoxal and methylglyoxal. The CMAQ-MCM-SOA model was applied to simulate SOA formation during a two-week episode from August 28 to September 7, 2006. The southeastern US has the highest SOA, with a maximum episode-averaged concentration of ∼12 μg m-3. Primary organic aerosol (POA) and SOA concentrations predicted by CMAQ-MCM-SOA agree well with AMS-derived hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) urban concentrations at the Moody Tower at the University of Houston. Predicted molecular properties of SOA (O/C, H/C, N/C and OM/OC ratios) at the site are similar to those reported in other urban areas, and O/C values agree with measured O/C at the same site. Isoprene epoxydiol is predicted to be the largest contributor to total SOA concentration in the southeast US, followed by methylglyoxal and glyoxal. The semi-volatile SOA components are dominated by products from β-caryophyllene oxidation, but the major species and their concentrations are sensitive to errors in saturation vapor pressure estimation. A uniform decrease of saturation vapor pressure by a factor of 100 for all condensable compounds can lead to a 150% increase in total SOA. A sensitivity simulation with UNIFAC-calculated activity coefficients (ignoring phase separation and water molecule partitioning into the organic phase) led to a 10% change in the predicted semi-volatile SOA concentrations.

  12. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova


    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  13. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski


    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  14. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.


    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  15. Modeling best practices in chronic disease management: the Arthritis Program at Southlake Regional Health Centre. (United States)

    Bain, Lorna; Mierdel, Sandra; Thorne, Carter


    Researchers, hospital administrators and governments are striving to define competencies in interprofessional care and education, as well as to identify effective models in chronic disease management. For more than 25 years The Arthritis Program (TAP) at Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket, Ontario, has actively practiced within these two interrelated priorities, which are now at the top of the healthcare agenda in Ontario and Canada. The approximately 135 different rheumatic conditions are the primary cause of long-term disability in Canada, affecting those from youth to the senior years, with an economic burden estimated at $4.4 billion (CAD$) annually, and growing. For the benefit of healthcare managers and their clients with chronic conditions, this article discusses TAP's history and demonstrable success, predicated on an educational model of patient self-management and self-efficacy. Also outlined are TAP's contributions in supporting evidence-based best practices in interprofessional collaboration and chronic disease management; approaches that are arguably understudied and under-practiced. Next steps for TAP include a larger role in empirical research in chronic-disease management and integration of a formal training program to benefit health professionals launching or expanding their interprofessional programs using TAP as the dynamic clinical example.

  16. 3-D evaluation of tropospheric ozone simulations by an ensemble of regional Chemistry Transport Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zyryanov


    Full Text Available A detailed 3-D evaluation of an ensemble of five regional Chemistry Transport Models (RCTM and one global CTM with focus on free tropospheric ozone over Europe is presented. It is performed over a summer period (June to August 2008 in the context of the GEMS-RAQ project. A data set of about 400 vertical ozone profiles from balloon soundings and commercial aircraft at 11 different locations is used for model evaluation, in addition to satellite measurements with the infrared nadir sounder (IASI showing largest sensitivity to free tropospheric ozone. In the middle troposphere, the four regional models using the same top and boundary conditions from IFS-MOZART exhibit a systematic negative bias with respect to observed profiles of about −20%. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE values are constantly growing with altitude, from 22% to 32% to 53%, respectively for 0–2 km, 2–8 km and 8–10 km height ranges. Lowest correlation is found in the middle troposphere, with minimum coefficients (R between 0.2 to 0.45 near 8 km, as compared to 0.7 near the surface and similar values around 10 km. A sensitivity test made with the CHIMERE mode also shows that using hourly instead of monthly chemical boundary conditions generally improves the model skill (i.e. improve RMSE and correlation. Lower tropospheric 0–6 km partial ozone columns derived from IASI show a clear North-South gradient over Europe, which is qualitatively reproduced by the models. Also the temporal variability showing decreasing ozone concentrations in the lower troposphere (0–6 km columns during summer is well reproduced by models even if systematic bias remains (the value of the bias being also controlled by the type of used boundary conditions. A multi-day case study of a trough with low tropopause was conducted and showed that both IASI and models were able to resolve strong horizontal gradients of middle and upper tropospheric ozone occurring in the vicinity of an upper

  17. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.


    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Local governance is a broad concept and is defined as the formulation and execution of collective action at the local level. The purpose of local government is to ensure effective and efficient use of public resources and service delivery at the level closest to citizens. Regional development is a new concept that aims to stimulate and diversify the economic activity of a country (region, to encourage investment in the private sector, to create a new jobs vacancy and improves living standards of the country. Regional development policies are a number of measures designed and promoted by the central and local administration, but the cooperation undertaken at the actors are in a different one, which included the private sector and civil society. At the center of these regional policies or practices is the use of efficient potential of each region, being particularly focused on business, means promoting the development of the new enterprises, promoting labor market and investment, improve the quality of environment, health , education and culture. Traditional objective of regional development policies is the reduction of territorial disparities for achieving a relative balance between economic and social levels of development in different areas in the national territory. Regional development is the actual task of local government units in Albania, and is one of the tasks and challenges of the future. Currently it takes a special importance in the context of European Union integration. Reforms have begun to change the system in 1990 in order to implement local democracy and decentralization principles that are present today. Inequalities that exist within the region and between them indicate that in some regions the economic potential is not being fully utilized, and that it reduces the overall performance in national level.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  20. Geographic regions for assessing built environmental correlates with walking trips: A comparison using different metrics and model designs. (United States)

    Tribby, Calvin P; Miller, Harvey J; Brown, Barbara B; Smith, Ken R; Werner, Carol M


    There is growing international evidence that supportive built environments encourage active travel such as walking. An unsettled question is the role of geographic regions for analyzing the relationship between the built environment and active travel. This paper examines the geographic region question by assessing walking trip models that use two different regions: walking activity spaces and self-defined neighborhoods. We also use two types of built environment metrics, perceived and audit data, and two types of study design, cross-sectional and longitudinal, to assess these regions. We find that the built environment associations with walking are dependent on the type of metric and the type of model. Audit measures summarized within walking activity spaces better explain walking trips compared to audit measures within self-defined neighborhoods. Perceived measures summarized within self-defined neighborhoods have mixed results. Finally, results differ based on study design. This suggests that results may not be comparable among different regions, metrics and designs; researchers need to consider carefully these choices when assessing active travel correlates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Network Modelling of Transboundary Cooperation between Russian and Belarusian Regional Enterprises: the case of the Kaliningrad and Grodno Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivchenko Vladislav


    Full Text Available This article examines the development of a new process within Russian-Belarusian-Kazakh integration — interregional transborder cooperation. Network modelling is suggested as a mechanism for its regulation. The authors present a network model of transborder cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus based on the case of the Kaliningrad and Grodno regions. The model is developed on the basis of the well-known and widely accepted PERT. It covers the three main stages of the whole transborder cooperation process identified in the case of the two regions — the Kaliningrad and Grodno: organisational and analytical support, methodological and technological support, and the development of a complex cooperation programme. The working version of the model includes approximately 150 events. As to its purpose, it is a representation of a well-balanced established international coordination programme of transboundary cooperation at a level of two regions.

  2. Use of regional climate models data for groundwater recharge modelling in Baltic artesian basin (United States)

    Timuhins, A.; Klints, I.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.


    Baltic artesian basin (BAB) covers about 480000 square kilometres. BAB includes territory of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and Baltic Sea. The closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB is developed in University of Latvia and reference calculations made in steady state mode. No-flow boundary condition is applied on the bottom and side boundaries of BAB. Hydraulic head is fixed on the seabed and largest lakes, and along the main river lines. Main water supply wells also are presented in the model as a pointwise water extraction. Precipitation is the main source of the groundwater recharge in the BAB region. Infiltration parameterization is responsible for this water source in BAB model. During the early stage of calibration of BAB hydrogeological model an automatic calibration for the hydraulic conductivities of permeable layers and single infiltration rate was attempted. Performing BAB model calibration it was noted that the differences of calculated and observed hydraulic heads (used for calculating the calibration penalty function) can be reduced by introducing a spatially distributed infiltration model. The aim of the present study is improving of the infiltration model, as well as preserving a short computation time (several minutes) for the piezometric head. Direct solution of improvement of the infiltration would be a usage of the advanced hydrological models. However, an accurate hydrological model requires a lot of computational power. It should couple meteorological and hydrological parameters and requires additional calibration. The regional climate model (KNMI-RACMO2 25 km resolution) results from ENSEMBLES project are used for the spatially distributed infiltration field calculation. The infiltration field is constructed as weighted difference of 30 year averaged precipitation and evaporation fields. The weight value is calibrated and a considerable decrease of the value of penalty function of the groundwater

  3. Observations and models of emissions of volatile terpenoid compounds from needles of ponderosa pine trees growing in situ: control by light, temperature and stomatal conductance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harley, Peter; Eller, Allyson; Guenther, Alex; Monson, Russell K.


    Terpenoid emissions from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa subsp. scopulorum) were measured in Colorado, USA over two growing seasons to evaluate the role of incident light, needle temperature and stomatal conductance in controlling emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) and several monoterpenes. MBO was the dominant daylight terpenoid emission, comprising on average 87% of the total flux, and diurnal variations were largely determined by light and temperature. During daytime, oxygenated monoterpenes (especially linalool) comprised up to 75% of the total monoterpenoid flux from needles. A significant fraction of monoterpenoid emissions was light dependent and 13CO2 labeling studies confirmed de novo production. Thus, modeling of monoterpenoid emissions required a hybrid model in which a significant fraction of emissions was dependent on both light and temperature, while the remainder was dependent on temperature alone. Experiments in which stomata were forced to close using abscisic acid demonstrated that MBO and a large fraction of the monoterpene flux, presumably linalool, could be limited at the scale of seconds to minutes by stomatal conductance. Using a previously published model of terpenoid emissions which explicitly accounts for the physico-chemical properties of emitted compounds, we are able to simulate these observed stomatal effects, whether induced through experimentation or arising under naturally fluctuation conditions of temperature and light. This study shows unequivocally that, under naturally occurring field conditions, de novo light dependent monoterpenes can comprise a large fraction of emissions. Differences between the monoterpene composition of ambient air and needle emissions imply a significant non-needle emission source enriched in Δ-3-carene.

  4. Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)


    Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

  5. Dynamic routing problems with fruitful regions: models and evolutionary computation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.I. van Hemert; J.A. La Poutré (Han)


    textabstractWe introduce the concept of fruitful regions in a dynamic routing context: regions that have a high potential of generating loads to be transported. The objective is to maximise the number of loads transported, while keeping to capacity and time constraints. Loads arrive while the

  6. Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    microphysics. Simple ice. (Dudhia). Explicit cloud water/ice prediction. Slingo's scheme/ grid scale rain. WSM 3-class simple ice. Radiation. Simple cooling. GFDL. GFDL. RRTM (LW). Dudhia (SW). Gravity wave drag. No ... region to cater to the need of the national STORM. (Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional.

  7. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.


    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  8. Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming (United States)

    Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.


    The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

  9. The Regional Earth System Model (RegESM) using RegCM4 coupled with the MITgcm ocean model: First assessments over the MED-CORDEX domain (United States)

    Mariotti, Laura; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk; Farneti, Riccardo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Carillo, Adriana; Giorgi, Filippo


    In the framework of global climate studies, there is an increasingly growing concern about the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, where high population density and intense exploitation activities pose severe questions on the sustainability of terrestrial water management, both for the present and the future. Ocean modeling studies suggest that the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation could be weakened in conditions of global greenhouse warming, an event which would undoubtedly affect regional climate, possibly triggering global feedback processes. Experiments with the atmosphere-ocean coupled system confirmed that a good comprehension of Mediterranean processes requires the explicit inclusion of the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the oceanic components, thus achieving a complete, fully coupled description of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle, at the same time gaining new insights in our current ability to reproduce the atmospheric hydrological processes and to close the hydrological balance. These issues are addressed by the upgraded PROTHEUS system which was jointly developed by ENEA and ICTP. Here we present a first evaluation of the performances of the new PROTHEUS system (called PROTHEUS 2.0) composed by the regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al. 2012) coupled with both the ocean model MITgcm (Marshall J. et al. 1997a,b) and the HD river model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) using RegESM (Regional Earth System Model) as a driver. The three-component (atmosphere, ocean and river routing) fully coupled model exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model, surface wind stress, energy and freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model, surface and sub-surface runoff from the atmospheric component to the river routing model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). In order to have water conservation within the system, the river routing component sends the

  10. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan


    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...

  11. Technical Documentation of the Regional Manure Management Model for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed


    Aillery, Marcel P.; Gollehon, Noel; Breneman, Vincent E.


    The Regional Manure Management Model, developed for the ERS project on "Manure Management for Improved Water Quality," is used to evaluate the cost and feasibility of manure land application as a manure management strategy at the regional level. This model is a nonlinear mathematical programming model of animal manure-nutrient production and distribution applied to the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The model is designed to assess regional costs of manure management, transport, and land applicatio...

  12. Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayanarayanan Sanjay


    Full Text Available This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036–2065 and far-future (2066–2095 periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 °C during winter than of 4.9 °C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5 scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly sub-region within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM

  13. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.


    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  14. Modeling aquifer behaviour under climate change and high consumption: Case study of the Sfax region, southeast Tunisia (United States)

    Boughariou, Emna; Allouche, Nabila; Jmal, Ikram; Mokadem, Naziha; Ayed, Bachaer; Hajji, Soumaya; Khanfir, Hafedh; Bouri, Salem


    The water resources are exhausted by the increasing demand related to the population growth. They are also affected by climate circumstances, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. These areas are already undergoing noticeable shortages and low annual precipitation rate. This paper presents a numerical model of the Sfax shallow aquifer system that was developed by coupling the geographical information system tool ArcGIS 9.3 and ground water modeling system GMS6.5's interface, ground water flow modeling MODFLOW 2000. Being in coastal city and having an arid climate with high consumption rates, this aquifer is undergoing a hydraulic stress situation. Therefore, the groundwater piezometric variations were calibrated for the period 2003-2013 and simulated based on two scenarios; first the constant and growing consumption and second the rainfall forecast as a result of climate change scenario released by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the German International Cooperation Agency "GIZ" using HadCM3 as a general circulation model. The piezometric simulations globally forecast a decrease that is about 0.5 m in 2020 and 1 m in 2050 locally the decrease is more pronounced in "Chaffar" and "Djbeniana" regions and that is more evident for the increasing consumption scenario. The two scenarios announce a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in "Djbeniana" region.

  15. CFD Modeling and Image Analysis of Exhaled Aerosols due to a Growing Bronchial Tumor: towards Non-Invasive Diagnosis and Treatment of Respiratory Obstructive Diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xi, Jinxiang; Kim, JongWon; Si, Xiuhua A.; Corley, Richard A.; Kabilan, Senthil; Wang, Shengyu


    Diagnosis and prognosis of tumorigenesis are generally performed with CT, PET, or biopsy. Such methods are accurate, but have the limitations of high cost and posing additional health risks to patients. In this study, we introduce an alternative computer aided diagnostic tool that can locate malignant sites caused by tumorigenesis in a non-invasive and low-cost way. Our hypothesis is that exhaled aerosol distribution is unique to lung structure and is sensitive to airway structure vari-ations. With appropriate approaches, it is possible to locate the disease site, determine the disease severity, and subsequently formulate a targeted drug delivery plan to treat the disease. This study numerically evaluated the feasibility of the proposed breath test in an image-based lung model with varying pathological stages of a bronchial squamous tumor. Large eddy simulations and a Lagran-gian tracking approach were used to model respiratory airflows and aerosol dynamics. Respira-tions of tracer aerosols of 1 µm at a flow rate of 20 L/min were simulated, with the distributions of exhaled aerosols recorded on a filter at the mouth exit. Aerosol patterns were quantified with multiple analytical techniques such as concentration disparity, spatial scanning and fractal analysis. We demonstrated that a growing bronchial tumor induced notable variations in both the airflow and exhaled aerosol distribution. These variations became more apparent with increasing tumor severity. The exhaled aerosols exhibited distinctive pattern parameters such as spatial probability, fractal dimension, and multifractal spectrum. Results of this study show that morphometric measures of the exhaled aerosol pattern can be used to detect and monitor the pathological states of respiratory diseases in the upper airway. The proposed breath test also has the potential to locate the site of the disease, which is critical in developing a personalized, site-specific drug de-livery protocol.

  16. CFD Modeling and Image Analysis of Exhaled Aerosols due to a Growing Bronchial Tumor: towards Non-Invasive Diagnosis and Treatment of Respiratory Obstructive Diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xi, Jinxiang [Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI (United States); Kim, JongWon [Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI (United States); Si, Xiuhua A. [California Baptist Univ., Riverside, CA (United States); Corley, Richard A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kabilan, Senthil [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Shengyu [First Affliliated Hospital of Xi' an Medical Univ., Shaanxi (China)


    Diagnosis and prognosis of tumorigenesis are generally performed with CT, PET, or biopsy. Such methods are accurate, but have the limitations of high cost and posing additional health risks to patients. In this study, we introduce an alternative computer aided diagnostic tool that can locate malignant sites caused by tumorigenesis in a non-invasive and low-cost way. Our hypothesis is that exhaled aerosol distribution is unique to lung structure and is sensitive to airway structure variations. With appropriate approaches, it is possible to locate the disease site, determine the disease severity, and subsequently formulate a targeted drug delivery plan to treat the disease. This study numerically evaluated the feasibility of the proposed breath test in an image-based lung model with varying pathological stages of a bronchial squamous tumor. Large eddy simulations and a Lagrangian tracking approach were used to model respiratory airflows and aerosol dynamics. Respirations of tracer aerosols of 1 µm at a flow rate of 20 L/min were simulated, with the distributions of exhaled aerosols recorded on a filter at the mouth exit. Aerosol patterns were quantified with multiple analytical techniques such as concentration disparity, spatial scanning and fractal analysis. We demonstrated that a growing bronchial tumor induced notable variations in both the airflow and exhaled aerosol distribution. These variations became more apparent with increasing tumor severity. The exhaled aerosols exhibited distinctive pattern parameters such as spatial probability, fractal dimension, and multifractal spectrum. Results of this study show that morphometric measures of the exhaled aerosol pattern can be used to detect and monitor the pathological states of respiratory diseases in the upper airway. The proposed breath test also has the potential to locate the site of the disease, which is critical in developing a personalized, site-specific drug de- livery protocol.


    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    antiretroviral roll-out in full swing, the. WHEN COMPASSION GROWS WINGS. The free time and expertise given by its deeply committed core of professional volunteers. (including pilots) is the lifeblood of the operation. Red Cross Air Mercy Service volunteer, German national Dr Florian Funk, at the AMS Durban base.

  18. Growing Plants and Minds (United States)

    Presser, Ashley Lewis; Kamdar, Danae; Vidiksis, Regan; Goldstein, Marion; Dominguez, Ximena; Orr, Jillian


    Many preschool classrooms explore plant growth. However, because many plants take a long time to grow, it is often hard to facilitate engagement in some practices (i.e., since change is typically not observable from one day to another, children often forget their prior predictions or cannot recall what plants looked like days or weeks earlier).…

  19. Impacts of climate change on the growing season in the United States (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.


    Understanding the effects of climate change on the vegetative growing season is key to quantifying future hydrologic water budget conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey modeled changes in future growing season length at 14 basins across 11 states. Simulations for each basin were generated using five general circulation models with three emission scenarios as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, watershed model developed to simulate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on watershed response. PRMS was modified to include a growing season calculation in this study. The growing season was examined for trends in the total length (annual), as well as changes in the timing of onset (spring) and the end (fall) of the growing season. The results showed an increase in the annual growing season length in all 14 basins, averaging 27–47 days for the three emission scenarios. The change in the spring and fall growing season onset and end varied across the 14 basins, with larger increases in the total length of the growing season occurring in the mountainous regions and smaller increases occurring in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The Clear Creek basin, 1 of the 14 basins in this study, was evaluated to examine the growing season length determined by emission scenario, as compared to a growing season length fixed baseline condition. The Clear Creek basin showed substantial variation in hydrologic responses, including streamflow, as a result of growing season length determined by emission scenario.

  20. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G


    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  1. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  2. Regional modeling of cadmium leaching to groundwater in the Kempen region, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Grift, B.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; Griffioen, J.


    Sandy soils in the border area of Belgium and the Netherlands (the Kempen region), are heavily contaminated with cadmium and zinc by atmospheric deposition from nearby smelters. Leaching of heavy metals from the topsoil is a major risk for groundwater contamination. The sandy soils in the Kempen

  3. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models? (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  4. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan


    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional ...... preferable to at-site estimation in moderately heterogeneous and homogeneous regions for large sample sizes. Modest intersite dependence has only a small effect on the performance of the regional index-flood estimator.......A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...

  5. Simplified two and fifty-one region state-based EEIO model comparison (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Supporting data for 2 region and 51 region models assessed in the manuscript "Exploring the relevance of spatial scale to life cycle inventory results using...

  6. Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities (United States)

    Aithal, B. H.


    Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and

  7. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.


    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  8. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall


    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  9. Multislice quantitative computed tomography allows early detection of bone mineral density alterations induced by atherogenic diet in a growing rat experimental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubert, M.J.; Monforte, F.; Calo, C.; Lylyk, P.; Friedman, M.F.; Gamba, C.A.


    Purpose. To demonstrate the utility of Multislice Quantitative Computed Tomography (MS-QCT) in the early detection of mandibular bone mineral density (BMD) alterations induced by an atherogenic diet in a growing rat experimental model. Materials and Methods. Male weanling Wistar rats (n =16) were divided by body weight (Wt) into 2 groups: control (C) and experimental (E), with no significant differences in the mean initial Wt (p>0.05). C was fed rodent stock diet ad libitum, and E an atherogenic diet for 3 weeks (3w). Zoometry (body weight and length) and diet intake (g/100g rat/day) were monitored. At 3 w in serum (mg/dL) lipidlipoprotein profile was studied: total cholesterol (t-C), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and MSQCT (Philips 64 CT, quantified with the eFilm Workstation 2.1) in seven mandibular areas (MA): n. 1 to 4: from chin to mandibular foramen, n. 5: coronoid process, n. 6: condylar process, n. 7: angular process. Statistics: Pearson's correlation between BMD in each MA and serum t-C. p 0.05). Correlation coefficients (r) and their significance levels (p) were relevant in 5/7 MA. MA1:-0.580 (p=0.019), MA2:-0.709 (p=0.002), MA3:-0.635 (p=0.008), MA5:-0.674 (p=0.004), MA6:-0.564 (p=0.023). Conclusions. These results suggest that MS-QCT is an imaging diagnostic method that allows the early detection of mandible bone architecture alterations induced by an atherogenic diet. Inverse correlation between BMD and t-C would indicate an association between an atherogenic diet intake and potential temporomandibular disorders. (authors)

  10. Growing up with Retinoblastoma (United States)

    Maley, Tom


    An account is given of growing up as a child blinded as a result of a cancer of the eye known as retinoblastoma. The role of his mother is brought out, variously as a source of objective knowledge, of one's personal worth, and of the worth of other people in one's community. The strengths and weaknesses of his first school in his home area and…

  11. Response of growing bones to irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Gonzalez, D.


    This thesis describes the effects of ionizing radiations on growing bones. The epiphyseal disc of growing mouse tibia was selected as a model for the experiments. An attempt has been made to obtain clinical data from irradiated bones during the childhood and to quantitate this information. Within the range of possibilities correlations have been established between the experimental and clinical data. (Auth.)


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Sirotin


    Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

  13. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan


    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

  14. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is an indicator of how stressed the active region flux system is and it is known to play an important role in the flaring .... P. C. acknowledges CSIR for financial support. References. Abramenko, V. I., Wang, T., Yurchishin, V. B. 1997, Solar Phys., 174, 291. Bao, S., Zhang, H. 1998, ApJ, 496, L43. Canfield, R. C., Pevtsov, A. A. ...

  15. Helicity of Solar Active Regions from a Dynamo Model Piyali ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Key words. MHD—Sun: activity—Sun: magnetic fields—sunspots. 1. Introduction. Typically, solar active regions are known to have helicity associated with them and the ... hemisphere and positive in the southern hemisphere), in spite of a very large statistical ... When a new toroidal flux tube with positive Bφ moves upwards.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Crowdfunding is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of crowdfunding for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of crowdfunding on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we envisage to show the critical role of crowdfunding on regional development. The use of inferential techniques (Chi-square test, the Cramer’s V statistic, the Goodman and Kruskal λ and the odds ratio demonstrates that the use of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform was linked to the geographical location of the social venture as well as its geographical scope. Also, social ventures located on rural regions are more likely to use social crowdfunding platforms than social ventures located in urban areas. Further, the circumstance of having the social ventures acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using crowdfunding for financing social projects.



    Romanenko, Irina


    The methodology of construction of the alternative agricultural production scenarios at regional level includes profitability and feasibility analysis based on assessment the effect of global climate change on productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, cost efficiency of crop growing and cattle breeding. To propose links between economic adaptation to climate change and carbon (organic C) stock management in agricultural ecosystems for use in developing long-term adoption strate...

  18. Comparison of multi-media transport and transformation models: regional fugacity model vs. CalTOX. (United States)

    Maddalena, R L; McKone, T E; Layton, D W; Hsieh, D P


    Two multimedia environmental transport and transformation computer models are summarized and compared. The regional fugacity model published by Mackay and Paterson (1991), termed Fug3ONT, is a four compartment steady-state model designed to simulate the relative distribution of nonionic organic chemicals in a multimedia system. CalTOX is a seven compartment multimedia total exposure model for hazardous waste sites. Both models are based on the principles of fugacity. CalTOX, however, separates the soil into three layers (surface, root, and vadose) and uses a different approach to estimate the diffusive mass transfer rate in soil. These differences result in lower estimates of the steady-state contaminant concentrations of six environmentally relevant chemicals in the root soil of CalTOX as compared to the bulk soil of Fug3ONT. The difference is greatest for compounds with low mobility in soil such as 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and Benzo(a)pyrene where estimates from CalTOX and Fug3ONT differ by more than 3 orders of magnitude. Otherwise, the models provide similar estimates for the distribution of the six chemicals among the air, water, sediment and surface soil.

  19. Modelling and mapping climate change adaptability in the historic tourism region of the Salzkammergut in Austria (United States)

    Berger, Stefan; Lang, Stefan; Pernkopf, Lena


    actual salt production site, some 800 km2 in size [Geuter 1913], it is now self-defined [Kurz 2006] as a magnet for tourism still steadily growing by attendance of municipalities on its northern fringe (2008: 54 municipalities, 2013: 59). The region is exemplarily for comparable regions in Austria or the Alps in terms of national/regional and transnational (UNFCCC) climate change adaptation strategies towards local/regional transfer and adjustment. Adaption remains an ambitious, cross-cutting issue with a range of societal areas and policy domains involved and to be integrated. The set of indicators to be chosen depends on the focus of the adaptation strategy. Here we focus on tourism, because it is of paramount importance for the well-being of the region from an economic point of view, but also from the perspective of sustainability and conservation of the historic heritage. In order to model the adaptive behaviour towards tourism, we work with the following twelve indicators: (1) bathing lakes / (2) skiing resorts, (4) connection to public transport, (10) bicycle ways, (5) average number of summer days / (6) heat days / (7) freezing days / (11) rain days, (8) temperature raise, (3) elevation a.s.l. / (9) slope, (12) cultural heritage. Using standardisation, we regionalise the set of indicators achieving a set of units that represent areas of uniform adaption behaviour, scaled to the policy scale and revealing in a spatial explicit manner the aggregated adaptability in terms of their potential to sustain tourism. The approach can be applied also to other transformative, yet strongly CC-affected mountain areas with a similar setting regarding their climate change adaptation potential. REFERENCES Folke, C. (2006) Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, pp. 253-267. Geuter, K. P. (1913) Illustrierter Führer durch das Salzkammergut und Salzburg mit Umgebung, Linz. IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment



    Bande, Stefano; D'Allura, Alessio; Finardi, Sandro; Giorcelli, Matteo; Muraro, Massimo


    Abstract: ARPA Piemonte performs yearly air quality assessment running a modelling system based on a chemical transport model. The model is capable to simulate air pollutant emission, transport, diffusion and chemical transformation, to provide concentration fields of the main atmospheric pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, O3, and benzene) on a hourly basis and to compute all the indicators required by EU legislation. Meteorological fields to drive air quality simulations are rec...

  1. A D-region conductivity model from EISCAT VHF measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schlegel

    Full Text Available An easy-to-use model to evaluate conductivities at high and middle latitudes in the height range 70–100 km is presented. It is based on electron density profiles obtained with the EISCAT VHF radar during 11 years and on the neutral atmospheric model MSIS95. The model uses solar zenith angle, geomagnetic activity and season as input parameters. It was mainly constructed to study the properties of Schumann resonances that depend on such conductivity profiles.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmospheric dynamics – Ionosphere (modeling and forecasting; ionosphere-atmosphere interaction

  2. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.


    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  3. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.


    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  4. Observed & Modeled Changes in the Onset of Spring: A Preliminary Comparative Analysis by Geographic Regions of the USA (United States)

    Enquist, C.


    Phenology, the study of seasonal life cycle events in plants and animals, is a well-recognized indicator of climate change impacts on people and nature. Models, experiments, and observational studies show changes in plant and animal phenology as a function of environmental change. Current research aims to improve our understanding of changes by enhancing existing models, analyzing observations, synthesizing previous research, and comparing outputs. Local to regional climatology is a critical driver of phenological variation of organisms across scales. Because plants respond to the cumulative effects of daily weather over an extended period, timing of life cycle events are effective integrators of climate data. One specific measure, leaf emergence, is particularly important because it often shows a strong response to temperature change, and is crucial for assessment of processes related to start and duration of the growing season. Schwartz et al. (2006) developed a suite of models (the "Spring Indices") linking plant development from historical data from leafing and flowering of cloned lilac and honeysuckle with basic climatic drivers to monitor changes related to the start of the spring growing season. These models can be generated at any location that has daily max-min temperature time series. The new version of these models is called the "Extended Spring Indices," or SI-x (Schwartz et al. in press). The SI-x model output (first leaf date and first bloom date) are produced similarly to the original models (SI-o), but do not incorporate accumulated chilling hours; rather energy accumulation starts for all stations on January 1. This change extends the locations SI model output can be generated into the sub-tropics, allowing full coverage of the conterminous USA. Both SI model versions are highly correlated, with mean bias and mean absolute differences around two days or less, and a similar bias and absolute errors when compared to cloned lilac data. To

  5. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations (United States)

    Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

  6. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)


    This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

  7. Estimasi Permintaan Agregat Regional Provinsi Jambi (Pendekatan Model Makro Ekonomi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The research objective was to analyzing fluctuations in aggregate demand growth variables are C, I, G, X, M and also regional gross domestic product for the year 1993-2010. To calculate and analyze some of the factors that affect the change of macro-regional components of aggregate demand in the years 1993-2010 Jambi Province. During the period 1993-2010 the economic growth rate Jambi average of 5 percent annually. Partially visible growth of household consumption by 23 percent investment by 18 per cent, 26 per cent of government spending, net exports of 43 percent. For calculate and analyze some factor that affect the change, here using regression equation with non log and log.

  8. Multi-region Statistical Shape Model for Cochlear Implantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma


    Statistical shape models are commonly used to analyze the variability between similar anatomical structures and their use is established as a tool for analysis and segmentation of medical images. However, using a global model to capture the variability of complex structures is not enough to achie...

  9. A generalized regional design storm rainfall model for Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Design of drainage and dam structures involves a full understanding of the duration, magnitude and volume of peak flood flows anticipated. For gauged catchments a number of established flood frequency models and rainfall-runoff models are used widely. However, most planned developments for bridge or dam or any ...

  10. OtagoNet: One Region's Model for Virtual Schooling (United States)

    Pratt, Keryn; Pullar, Ken


    Virtual schools are increasingly common in New Zealand and internationally as schools are challenged to meet the needs of their students. This article presents a description of the distance-learning model used by a group of schools in rural Otago for the last decade. The leadership team and roles are described, and the funding model, which is…

  11. One-dimensional diffusion model in an Inhomogeneous region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Fedotov, I


    Full Text Available A one-dimensional model is developed to describe atomic diffusion in a graphite tube atomizer for electrothermal atomic adsorption spectrometry. The underlying idea of the model is the solution of an inhomogeneous one-dimensional diffusion equation...

  12. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)


    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  13. Impacts of regional land-grab on regional hydroclimate in southeastern Africa via modeling and remote sensing (United States)

    Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.


    Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are significant enough to induce changes in the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and its interaction with the atmosphere above. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models or Earth System Models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from timber harvesting due to a land grab boom in Mozambique. We also focus more narrowly at quantifying regional impacts on Gorongosa National Park, a nationally important economic and biodiversity resource in southeastern Africa. After nationalizing all land in 1975 after Mozambique gained independence, complex social processes, including an extended low intensity conflict civil war and economic hardships, led to an escalation of land use rights grants to foreign governments. Between 2004 and 2009, large tracts of land were requested for timber. Here we use existing tree cover loss datasets to more accurately represent land cover within a regional weather model. LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is updated at three instances between 2001 and 2014 using a tree cover loss dataset. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the land grab. Results suggest that the land grab has impacted microclimate parameters in a significant way via direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions

  14. Postglacial uplift of the eastern Gulf of Finland-Lake Ladoga region: models and observations (United States)

    Amantov, Aleksey; Fjeldskaar, Willy; Amantova, Marina


    The eastern Gulf of Finland - Lake Ladoga region - is at the peripheral part of the Fennoscandian post-glacial uplift. We compared different modeling results for this region with observations, including our revision of geomorphological traces of paleo shorelevel. As in many parts of the general Baltic-White Sea bedrock lowland at the margin of the Fennoscandian Shield, the bedrock landscape was modified by glaciers, but it was also the major controlling factor for the history of glacial grows and decays. First-order landforms of this segment are: Lake Ladoga-Lake Ilmen lowland, Lembolovo High of the Karelic Isthmus and Neva-Gulf of Finland lowland. The range of the bedrock topography is close to 350 m. The landforms reflect different glacial behavior during stadials, with fast movement and strong erosion in northern Ladoga, but passive motion and accumulation around Lembolovo High. The differences influenced the ice sheet and deglaciation history. The shore level displacements in this area are slightly different than westwards in the Baltic area; the shoreline tilts are usually lower in southern-central part of the eastern Gulf of Finland-lake Ladoga region. For example, the shoreline tilts at 11 600 BP in the Baltic Ice Lake in the south-east range from 0.55 to 0.31 m/km. The slope of the Ancylus shoreline varies from 0.12 to 0.18 m/km, increasing to almost the double in the north-western area. Similarly, the Littorina shore level is tilted only 0.08 m/km, rising to 0.14 m/km in the north-west. We have used this data in our high resolution modeling involving glacial isostasy, hydro isostasy, sediment isostasy, and gravity field changes. The mopdeling is based on Earth rheology model with a low-viscosity asthenosphere of thickness less than 150 km and viscosity less than 7.0x10**19 Pa s above a mantle of viscosity 10**21 Pa s, and an effective elastic lithosphere thickness of 30-40 km (flexural rigidity 10**24 Nm). The specific uplift features in the area are

  15. Modeling regional population-employment dynamics across different sectors of the economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaff, T. de; Oort, F.G. van; Florax, R.

    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of

  16. Statistical Model and the mesonic-baryonic transition region

    CERN Document Server

    Oeschler, H.; Redlich, K.; Wheaton, S.


    The statistical model assuming chemical equilibriumand local strangeness conservation describes most of the observed features of strange particle production from SIS up to RHIC. Deviations are found as the maximum in the measured K+/pi+ ratio is much sharper than in the model calculations. At the incident energy of the maximum, the statistical model shows that freeze out changes regime from one being dominated by baryons at the lower energies toward one being dominated by mesons. It will be shown how deviations from the usual freeze-out curve influence the various particle ratios. Furthermore, other observables exhibit also changes just in this energy regime.

  17. A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo


    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data

  18. Atmospheric CO2 modeling at the regional scale: an intercomparison of 5 meso-scale atmospheric models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarrat, C.; Noilhan, J.; Dolman, A.J.; Gerbig, C.; Ahmadov, R.; Tolk, L.F.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Maat, ter H.W.; Pérez-Landa, G.; Donier, S.


    Atmospheric CO2 modeling in interaction with the surface fluxes, at the regional scale is developed within the frame of the European project CarboEurope-IP and its Regional Experiment component. In this context, five meso-scale meteorological models participate in an intercomparison exercise. Using

  19. Toward the Development of a Cold Regions Regional-Scale Hydrologic Model, Final Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinzman, Larry D [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bolton, William Robert [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Young-Robertson, Jessica (Cable) [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)


    This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating that assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.

  20. Evaluation process radiological in ternopil region method of box models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І.В. Матвєєва


    Full Text Available  Results of radionuclides Sr-90 flows analyses in the ecosystem of Kotsubinchiky village of Ternopolskaya oblast were analyzed. The block-scheme of ecosystem and its mathematical model using the box models method were made. It allowed us to evaluate the ways of dose’s loadings formation of internal irradiation for miscellaneous population groups – working people, retirees, children, and also to prognose the dynamic of these loadings during the years after the Chernobyl accident.

  1. Establishment of modified reversible regional cerebral ischemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Xunming; Ling Feng; Zhao Xiqing; Xuan Yun; Wang Yueqin; Ling Xiaolan; Chang Hongjun; Zhang Zhiping


    Objective: Modifying the method of establishing reversible middle cerebral ischemic models in rats for improvement of the stability and rate of success, so as to raise the reliability of cerebral ischemic study. Methods: Sixty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups, modified and control groups, 30 rats in each group. The method of silicone- tipping on one end of the nylon suture was used to modify the establishment of embolus, and tip-heating method was used to establish the traditional embolus with all the other steps of the procedure just the same. The Zea Longa 5 scoring scale was used to estimate the neurological deficiency while TTC staining method was used to measure and calculate the volume of cerebral infarction. The percentage of successful models with 3-4 grade scorings and the coefficient of the variations of cerebral infarct volume were used to estimate the stability of the models. Results: The rate of success of establishment models in the modification group was significantly higher in comparing with the traditional group (93% vs 60%, χ 2 =9.32, P=0.002). The percentage of model establishment with 3-4 grade neurological scores in modification group was higher than that in the traditional group 96.4% vs 61.2%, χ 2 =9.51, P=0.002). The cerebral infarct volume in modification group and traditional group were (4.1450±0.5019) cm 3 and (3.8435 ± 0.8164) cm 3 , and the coefficients of variation were 12.01% and 21.24% respectively, which indicated that the stability of models was significantly higher in modification group than in the traditional one. Conclusions: The rates of success and stability of the models for reversible focal cerebral ischemia made by the modification method were significantly improved, with decreasing the cost of model creation and increasing the accuracy of study of ischemic cerebral vascular disease. (authors)


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Dlask


    Full Text Available This paper reports on change as an indicator that can be provide more focused goals in studies of development. The paper offers an answer to the question: How might management gain information from a simulation model and thus influence reality through pragmatic changes. We focus on where and when to influence, manage, and control basic technical-economic proposals. These proposals are mostly formed as simulation models. Unfortunately, however, they do not always provide an explanation of formation changes. A wide variety of simulation tools have become available, e.g. Simulink, Wolfram SystemModeler, VisSim, SystemBuild, STELLA, Adams, SIMSCRIPT, COMSOL Multiphysics, etc. However, there is only limited support for the construction of simulation models of a technical-economic nature. Mathematics has developed the concept of differentiation. Economics has developed the concept of marginality. Technical-economic design has yet to develop an equivalent methodology. This paper discusses an,alternative approach that uses the phenomenon of change, and provides a way from professional knowledge, which can be seen as a purer kind of information, to a more dynamic computing model (a simulation model that interprets changes as method. The validation of changes, as a result for use in managerial decision making, and condition for managerial decision making, can thus be improved.

  3. A regional groundwater-flow model for sustainable groundwater-resource management in the south Asian megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh (United States)

    Islam, Md Bayzidul; Firoz, A. B. M.; Foglia, Laura; Marandi, Andres; Khan, Abidur Rahman; Schüth, Christoph; Ribbe, Lars


    The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981-2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m3/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.

  4. Influence of polydioxanone foil on growing septal cartilage after surgery in an animal model: new aspects of cartilage healing and regeneration (preliminary results)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenisch, Miriam; Tamás, Hajas; Nolst Trenité, Gilbert J.


    To determine whether late complications after septoplasty in growing septal cartilage in children can be prevented by the use of a resorbable polydioxanone (PDS) foil in combination with the cartilage. Animal study with 45 young rabbits, operated on at the nasal septum. Four typical septoplasty

  5. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.


    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  6. Extreme rainfall in West Africa: A regional modeling (United States)

    Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.; Blanchet, J.; Quantin, G.; Ali, A.


    In a world of increasing exposure of populations to natural hazards, the mapping of extreme rainfall remains a key subject of study. Such maps are required for both flood risk management and civil engineering structure design, the challenge being to take into account the local information provided by point rainfall series as well as the necessity of some regional coherency. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory are compared here, with an application to extreme rainfall mapping in West Africa. The first approach is a local fit and interpolation (LFI) consisting of a spatial interpolation of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution parameters estimated independently at each station. The second approach is a spatial maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE); it directly estimates the GEV distribution over the entire region by a single maximum likelihood fit using jointly all measurements combined with spatial covariates. Five LFI and three SMLE methods are considered, using the information provided by 126 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-1990. The methods are first evaluated in calibration. Then the predictive skills and the robustness are assessed through a cross validation and an independent network validation process. The SMLE approach, especially when using the mean annual rainfall as covariate, appears to perform better for most of the scores computed. Using the Niamey 104 year time series, it is also shown that the SMLE approach has the capacity to deal more efficiently with the effect of local outliers by using the spatial information provided by nearby stations.

  7. A model of Dutch agriculture based on Positive Mathematical Programming with regional and environmental applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, J.F.M.


    The purpose of this thesis is to describe the current state-of-the-art of the Dutch Regionalized Agricultural Model (DRAM). DRAM can be defined as a comparative static, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming and regionalized model of the Dutch agricultural sector with environmental aspects.

  8. Modelling cloud effects on ozone on a regional scale : A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthijsen, J.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Meijer, E.W.; Boersen, G.


    We have investigated the influence of clouds on ozone on a regional scale (Europe) with a regional scale photochemical dispersion model (LOTOS). The LOTOS-model calculates ozone and other photo-oxidant concentrations in the lowest three km of the troposphere, using actual meteorologic data and

  9. Biomass measurement and modeling challenges for hardwood species in the northern region (United States)

    James A. Westfall; David W. MacFarlane; Aaron R. Weiskittel


    Biomass models for most commercially important hardwood species in the northern region of the U.S. are often based on data of very limited spatial extent and range of tree characteristics, suggesting uncertain accuracy when applied at regional scales. Also, the current models can have poor predictive ability for the proportions of biomass found in major tree components...

  10. A Comparison of Moment Rates for the Eastern Mediterranean Region from Competitive Kinematic Models (United States)

    Klein, E. C.; Ozeren, M. S.; Shen-Tu, B.; Galgana, G. A.


    Relatively continuous, complex, and long-lived episodes of tectonic deformation gradually shaped the lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean region into its present state. This large geodynamically interconnected and seismically active region absorbs, accumulates and transmits strains arising from stresses associated with: (1) steady northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates; (2) differences in lithospheric gravitational potential energy; and (3) basal tractions exerted by subduction along the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. Over the last twenty years, numerous kinematic models have been built using a variety of assumptions to take advantage of the extensive and dense GPS observations made across the entire region resulting in a far better characterization of the neotectonic deformation field than ever previously achieved. In this study, three separate horizontal strain rate field solutions obtained from three, region-wide, GPS only based kinematic models (i.e., a regional block model, a regional continuum model, and global continuum model) are utilized to estimate the distribution and uncertainty of geodetic moment rates within the eastern Mediterranean region. The geodetic moment rates from each model are also compared with seismic moment release rates gleaned from historic earthquake data. Moreover, kinematic styles of deformation derived from each of the modeled horizontal strain rate fields are examined for their degree of correlation with earthquake rupture styles defined by proximal centroid moment tensor solutions. This study suggests that significant differences in geodetically obtained moment rates from competitive kinematic models may introduce unforeseen bias into regularly updated, geodetically constrained, regional seismic hazard assessments.

  11. Regional Public Stock Reductions in Spain: Estimations from a Multiregional Spatial Vector Autorregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A Márquez


    Full Text Available The estimation of the impact of public investment on regional economic growth requires consideration of the spatio-temporal dynamics among the state variables of each region.  Recent austerity policies in Spain that feature temporary decreases in the accumulation of regional public capital should thus be evaluated in terms of their impact on the economy as a whole, on specific regions together with the spillovers effects from one region to the rest of the regional system.  Applying a multiregional integrated specification to model interdependencies across regions, our results indicate that, while global decreases in public investment have a homogenously negative effect on the output of all the regions, the Spanish regions portray heterogeneous responses from localized public capital stock reductions over the simulation period considered.

  12. Behavioural models for cycling - Case studies of the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín

    such as car parking availability, park & ride opportunities, bicycle parking availability and type, and the possibility of carrying bicycles on trains. The choices between five alternative transport modes was analysed (i.e., walking, cycling, being a car driver, being a car passenger, and riding a bus) for 2...... parameters across modes, on a dataset including trip information and socioeconomic variables for 7,958 individuals and 10,982 trip chains with five available alternative modes (i.e., walking, cycling, car driver, car passenger, and public transport). The results showed that travellers’ have heterogeneous...... and then the probability of individuals, with that specific lifestyle, choosing a specific trans