WorldWideScience

Sample records for models region growing

  1. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.

    2005-01-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues

  2. A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Rapidly Growing Mega-Regions as a Coupled Human-Natural System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. A.; Tang, W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

    2013-12-01

    The FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) integrates information on nonstationary drivers of land change (per capita land area demand, site suitability, and spatial structure of conversion events) into spatial-temporal projections of changes in landscape patterns (Meentemeyer et al., 2013). One striking feature of FUTURES is its patch-growth algorithm that includes feedback effects of former development events across several temporal and spatial scales: cell-level transition events are aggregated into patches of land change and their further growth is based on empirically derived parameters controlling its size, shape, and dispersion. Here, we augment the FUTURES modeling framework by expanding its multilevel structure and its representation of human decision making. The new modeling framework is hierarchically organized as nested subsystems including the latest theory on telecouplings in coupled human-natural systems (Liu et al., 2013). Each subsystem represents a specific level of spatial scale and embraces agents that have decision making authority at a particular level. The subsystems are characterized with regard to their spatial representation and are connected via flows of information (e.g. regulations and policies) or material (e.g. population migration). To provide a modeling framework that is applicable to a wide range of settings and geographical regions and to keep it computationally manageable, we implement a 'zooming factor' that allows to enable or disable subsystems (and hence the represented processes), based on the extent of the study region. The implementation of the FUTURES modeling framework for a specific case study follows the observational modeling approach described in Grimm et al. (2005), starting from the analysis of empirical data in order to capture the processes relevant for specific scales and to allow a rigorous calibration and validation of the model application. In this paper, we give an introduction to the basic

  3. Developing Inventory Projection Models Using Empirical Net Forest Growth and Growing-Stock Density Relationships Across U.S. Regions and Species Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a set of empirical net forest growth models based on forest growing-stock density relationships for three U.S. regions (North, South, and West) and two species groups (softwoods and hardwoods) at the regional aggregate level. The growth models accurately predict historical U.S. timber inventory trends when we incorporate historical timber harvests...

  4. Models to quantify excretion of dry matter, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon in growing pigs fed regional diets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Henry; Poulsen, Hanne Damgaard; Prapaspongsa, Trakarn

    2013-01-01

    used in a digestibility and balance experiment. Excretion of dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and carbon (C) of the experimental diets were determined. Due to the highest dietary fibre content, VN had the lowest digestibility of N, P and C (73, 49, and 73%, respectively) compared......Modern pig production contributes to many environmental problems that relate to manure, especially in areas with highly intensive production systems and in regions like Asia where the regulative control is not effective. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use three different pig diets...... varying in dietary protein, fibre and fat as representative for Danish (DK), Thai (TH) and Vietnamese (VN) pig production to develop and evaluate different approaches to predict/calculate excretion from growing pigs in comparison with the experimentally determined values. Nine female growing pigs were...

  5. Parallelized Seeded Region Growing Using CUDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongjin Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for parallelizing the seeded region growing (SRG algorithm using Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA technology, with intention to overcome the theoretical weakness of SRG algorithm of its computation time being directly proportional to the size of a segmented region. The segmentation performance of the proposed CUDA-based SRG is compared with SRG implementations on single-core CPUs, quad-core CPUs, and shader language programming, using synthetic datasets and 20 body CT scans. Based on the experimental results, the CUDA-based SRG outperforms the other three implementations, advocating that it can substantially assist the segmentation during massive CT screening tests.

  6. Models to quantify excretion of dry matter, nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon in growing pigs fed regional diets

    OpenAIRE

    Jørgensen, Henry; Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Vu, Van Thi Khanh; Poulsen, Hanne Damgaard

    2013-01-01

    Modern pig production contributes to many environmental problems that relate to manure, especially in areas with highly intensive production systems and in regions like Asia where the regulative control is not effective. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use three different pig diets varying in dietary protein, fibre and fat as representative for Danish (DK), Thai (TH) and Vietnamese (VN) pig production to develop and evaluate different approaches to predict/calculate excretion fr...

  7. Incorporating Edge Information into Best Merge Region-Growing Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilton, James C.; Pasolli, Edoardo

    2014-01-01

    We have previously developed a best merge region-growing approach that integrates nonadjacent region object aggregation with the neighboring region merge process usually employed in region growing segmentation approaches. This approach has been named HSeg, because it provides a hierarchical set of image segmentation results. Up to this point, HSeg considered only global region feature information in the region growing decision process. We present here three new versions of HSeg that include local edge information into the region growing decision process at different levels of rigor. We then compare the effectiveness and processing times of these new versions HSeg with each other and with the original version of HSeg.

  8. Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan E Shave

    Full Text Available Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius, in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

  9. Occupancy modeling reveals territory-level effects of nest boxes on the presence, colonization, and persistence of a declining raptor in a fruit-growing region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shave, Megan E; Lindell, Catherine A

    2017-01-01

    Nest boxes for predators in agricultural regions are an easily implemented tool to improve local habitat quality with potential benefits for both conservation and agriculture. The potential for nest boxes to increase raptor populations in agricultural regions is of particular interest given their positions as top predators. This study examined the effects of cherry orchard nest boxes on the local breeding population of a declining species, the American Kestrel (Falco sparverius), in a fruit-growing region of Michigan. During the 2013-2016 study, we added a total of 23 new nest boxes in addition to 24 intact boxes installed previously; kestrels used up to 100% of our new boxes each season. We conducted temporally-replicated surveys along four roadside transects divided into 1.6 km × 500 m sites. We developed a multi-season occupancy model under a Bayesian framework and found that nest boxes had strong positive effects on first-year site occupancy, site colonization, and site persistence probabilities. The estimated number of occupied sites increased between 2013 and 2016, which correlated with the increase in number of sites with boxes. Kestrel detections decreased with survey date but were not affected by time of day or activity at the boxes themselves. These results indicate that nest boxes determined the presence of kestrels at our study sites and support the conclusion that the local kestrel population is likely limited by nest site availability. Furthermore, our results are highly relevant to the farmers on whose properties the boxes were installed, for we can conclude that installing a nest box in an orchard resulted in a high probability of kestrels occupying that orchard or the areas adjacent to it.

  10. SAR Imagery Segmentation by Statistical Region Growing and Hierarchical Merging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ushizima, Daniela Mayumi; Carvalho, E.A.; Medeiros, F.N.S.; Martins, C.I.O.; Marques, R.C.P.; Oliveira, I.N.S.

    2010-05-22

    This paper presents an approach to accomplish synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image segmentation, which are corrupted by speckle noise. Some ordinary segmentation techniques may require speckle filtering previously. Our approach performs radar image segmentation using the original noisy pixels as input data, eliminating preprocessing steps, an advantage over most of the current methods. The algorithm comprises a statistical region growing procedure combined with hierarchical region merging to extract regions of interest from SAR images. The region growing step over-segments the input image to enable region aggregation by employing a combination of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test with a hierarchical stepwise optimization (HSWO) algorithm for the process coordination. We have tested and assessed the proposed technique on artificially speckled image and real SAR data containing different types of targets.

  11. The Growing Use of GMES across Europe’s Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Redazione GEOmedia

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Una guida per i decisori politici sulle potenzialità e ibenefici derivanti dall’uso delle tecnologie di monitoraggiodella Terra nelle regioni Europee Abstract The Growing Use of GMES across Europe’s Regions” LaunchEvent at the European Parliament.NEREUS – Network of European Regions Using Space Technologiesand ESA – European Space Agency, are pleased to announce the launch of a joint publication with the title “TheGrowing Use of GMES across Europe’s Regions”, a collection of 67 illustrative articles on regional GMES applications. Addressed to a non-specialist audience, the collection illustrates the strategic value of the Programme for regional administrations and authorities in the context of territorial management and forward planning. The variety of existing andpotential regional uses across Europe shows how GMES not only contributes to better informed decision making but also how the data can be exploited to support sustainable environmental protection with a long term perspective. Quoting end user experiences, the publication gives a first-hand impression on the impact of GMES on regional development and policy implementation.

  12. MELNIK VINE-GROWING REGION – HISTORY AND TRADITIONS

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    Radoslava Ganeva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The region of Melnik (Southwest Bulgaria has exclusively appropriate climate for wine growing. Its borders are defined by the dissemination of the wide Melnik grape vine, revealed by experts as an old local variety. Few are the wine-growing centers that carry such an effective ampelographic tradition. A few are the viticulture centers, bearing such effective tradition. The vine is grown here from the Thracian antiquity and is the basis for a livelihood, preserved and retransmitted for many generations. It is characterized by a specialization in the production and marketing of high quality red dry wines. The article deals with the development of the Melnik vineyard as a result of different political and economic conditions in the course of historical development. Various archival materials, specialized studies and personal fieldwork research have been used.

  13. Video Segmentation Using Fast Marching and Region Growing Algorithms

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    Eftychis Sifakis

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available The algorithm presented in this paper is comprised of three main stages: (1 classification of the image sequence and, in the case of a moving camera, parametric motion estimation, (2 change detection having as reference a fixed frame, an appropriately selected frame or a displaced frame, and (3 object localization using local colour features. The image sequence classification is based on statistical tests on the frame difference. The change detection module uses a two-label fast marching algorithm. Finally, the object localization uses a region growing algorithm based on the colour similarity. Video object segmentation results are shown using the COST 211 data set.

  14. Regional and seasonal analyses of weights in growing Angus cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, H L; Fragomeni, B O; Bertrand, J K; Lourenco, D A L; Misztal, I

    2016-10-01

    This study evaluated the impact of region and season on growth in Angus seed stock. To assess geographic differences, the United States was partitioned into 9 regions based on similar climate and topography related to cow-calf production. Seasonal effects were associated with the month that animals were weighed. The American Angus Association provided growth data, and records were assigned to regions based on the owner's zip code. Most Angus cattle were in the Cornbelt, Lower Plains, Rocky Mountain, Upper Plains, and Upper South regions, with proportionally fewer Angus in Texas compared with the national cow herd. Most calves were born in the spring, especially February and March. Weaning weights (WW; = 49,886) and yearling weights (YW; = 45,168) were modeled with fixed effects of age-of-dam class (WW only), weigh month, region, month-region interaction, and linear covariate of age. Random effects included contemporary group nested within month-region combination and residual. The significant month-region interaction ( Angus seed stock producers have used calving seasons to adapt to the specific environmental conditions in their regions and to optimize growth in young animals.

  15. Influence of growing and exploatation of bovins on regional agroecosystems

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    Cornel Podar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Scientists all over the are concerned regarding the influence of growing ruminants on regional agro-ecosystems due to green house gases resulted (CO 2, CH4, N2O5. Cattle have contributed to environmental pollution in old industrial farming systems, when the cattle number in Romania, reached 8 million, manure evacuation was not solved and manure was accumulating around the farm polluting the soil, water and air. Low density of ruminants existing in the agricultural sector of the country is not significant in terms of pollution. Currently cattle have positive effects on the environment by the use of legumes, grasses and manure production contributing to the increase of agricultural production: crop production (sugar beet, potato and cereals, animal production (milk, meat, leather production and industrial production also (biogas, befouls, alcohol, oil production.

  16. Central Asia in Asia: Charting growing trans-regional linkages

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    Nicola P. Contessi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As the so-called ‘Asian Century’ unfolds, Central Asian countries are increasingly directing their foreign relations eastward. Meanwhile, Asian states are equally turning to Central Asia in their search for energy resources and new markets. This dual dynamic is giving rise to closer and deeper ties in three key areas. As far as infrastructures are concerned, various Asian powers have adopted Silk Road policies that see Central Asia as a fundamental transit route for their long-haul connectivity projects. In the field of trade, Central Asia's exchanges with other Asian countries have been growing steadily since the 1990s, in some cases even coming to rival, in comparative terms, exchanges with the West. Lastly, in terms of multilateralism, Central Asia is increasingly enmeshed in a web of overlapping institutions with a strong Asian identity, coexisting with the region's Western institutional references. The article then problematizes this emerging pattern by sketching out some of the possible ramifications that could stem from the sustainment and consolidation of these trends for the international order and the global balance of power.

  17. Assessment of the Growing Season Regime Region of Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growing period for most crops continues beyond the rainy season and, to a greater or lesser extent, crops often mature on moisture reserves stored in the soil profile. When the rains start early the season is likely to be· longer, however, early rainfall (November) over unimodal areas is variable (Mhita and Nassib, 1988).

  18. Segmentation of Large Unstructured Point Clouds Using Octree-Based Region Growing and Conditional Random Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassier, M.; Bonduel, M.; Van Genechten, B.; Vergauwen, M.

    2017-11-01

    Point cloud segmentation is a crucial step in scene understanding and interpretation. The goal is to decompose the initial data into sets of workable clusters with similar properties. Additionally, it is a key aspect in the automated procedure from point cloud data to BIM. Current approaches typically only segment a single type of primitive such as planes or cylinders. Also, current algorithms suffer from oversegmenting the data and are often sensor or scene dependent. In this work, a method is presented to automatically segment large unstructured point clouds of buildings. More specifically, the segmentation is formulated as a graph optimisation problem. First, the data is oversegmented with a greedy octree-based region growing method. The growing is conditioned on the segmentation of planes as well as smooth surfaces. Next, the candidate clusters are represented by a Conditional Random Field after which the most likely configuration of candidate clusters is computed given a set of local and contextual features. The experiments prove that the used method is a fast and reliable framework for unstructured point cloud segmentation. Processing speeds up to 40,000 points per second are recorded for the region growing. Additionally, the recall and precision of the graph clustering is approximately 80%. Overall, nearly 22% of oversegmentation is reduced by clustering the data. These clusters will be classified and used as a basis for the reconstruction of BIM models.

  19. PROGRESSIVE DENSIFICATION AND REGION GROWING METHODS FOR LIDAR DATA CLASSIFICATION

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    J. L. Pérez-García

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available At present, airborne laser scanner systems are one of the most frequent methods used to obtain digital terrain elevation models. While having the advantage of direct measurement on the object, the point cloud obtained has the need for classification of their points according to its belonging to the ground. This need for classification of raw data has led to appearance of multiple filters focused LiDAR classification information. According this approach, this paper presents a classification method that combines LiDAR data segmentation techniques and progressive densification to carry out the location of the points belonging to the ground. The proposed methodology is tested on several datasets with different terrain characteristics and data availability. In all case, we analyze the advantages and disadvantages that have been obtained compared with the individual techniques application and, in a special way, the benefits derived from the integration of both classification techniques. In order to provide a more comprehensive quality control of the classification process, the obtained results have been compared with the derived from a manual procedure, which is used as reference classification. The results are also compared with other automatic classification methodologies included in some commercial software packages, highly contrasted by users for LiDAR data treatment.

  20. HRM: HII Region Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Trey V.; Kepley, Amanda K.; Balser, Dana S.

    2017-07-01

    HII Region Models fits HII region models to observed radio recombination line and radio continuum data. The algorithm includes the calculations of departure coefficients to correct for non-LTE effects. HII Region Models has been used to model star formation in the nucleus of IC 342.

  1. "Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

  2. CAMSHIFT IMPROVEMENT WITH MEAN-SHIFT SEGMENTATION, REGION GROWING, AND SURF METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdinan Ferdinan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available CAMSHIFT algorithm has been widely used in object tracking. CAMSHIFT utilizescolor features as the model object. Thus, original CAMSHIFT may fail when the object color issimilar with the background color. In this study, we propose CAMSHIFT tracker combined withmean-shift segmentation, region growing, and SURF in order to improve the tracking accuracy.The mean-shift segmentation and region growing are applied in object localization phase to extractthe important parts of the object. Hue-distance, saturation, and value are used to calculate theBhattacharyya distance to judge whether the tracked object is lost. Once the object is judged lost,SURF is used to find the lost object, and CAMSHIFT can retrack the object. The Object trackingsystem is built with OpenCV. Some measurements of accuracy have done using frame-basedmetrics. We use datasets BoBoT (Bonn Benchmark on Tracking to measure accuracy of thesystem. The results demonstrate that CAMSHIFT combined with mean-shift segmentation, regiongrowing, and SURF method has higher accuracy than the previous methods.

  3. Medicinal plants growing in the Judea region: network approach for searching potential therapeutic targets

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    Arie Budovsky

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Plants growing in the Judea region are widely used in traditional medicine of the Levant region. Nevertheless, they have not so far been sufficiently analyzed and their medicinal potential has not been evaluated. This study is the first attempt to fill the gap in the knowledge of the plants growing in the region. Comprehensive data mining of online botanical databases and peer-reviewed scientific literature including ethno-pharmacological surveys from the Levant region was applied to compile a full list of plants growing in the Judea region, with the focus on their medicinal applications. Around 1300 plants growing in the Judea region were identified. Of them, 25% have medicinal applications which were analyzed in this study. Screening for chemical-protein interactions, together with the network-based analysis of potential targets, will facilitate discovery and therapeutic applications of the Judea region plants. Such an approach could also be applied as an integrative platform for further searching the potential therapeutic targets of plants growing in other regions of the world.

  4. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

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    Yang Fu

    Full Text Available Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2 product, we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model, 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model, 73% (the Number of Growing Days model and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  5. Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

    2014-01-01

    Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

  6. Liver Segmentation Based on Snakes Model and Improved GrowCut Algorithm in Abdominal CT Image

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    Huiyan Jiang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel method based on Snakes Model and GrowCut algorithm is proposed to segment liver region in abdominal CT images. First, according to the traditional GrowCut method, a pretreatment process using K-means algorithm is conducted to reduce the running time. Then, the segmentation result of our improved GrowCut approach is used as an initial contour for the future precise segmentation based on Snakes model. At last, several experiments are carried out to demonstrate the performance of our proposed approach and some comparisons are conducted between the traditional GrowCut algorithm. Experimental results show that the improved approach not only has a better robustness and precision but also is more efficient than the traditional GrowCut method.

  7. Automatic segmentation of MRI head images by 3-D region growing method which utilizes edge information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Hao; Suzuki, Hidetomo; Toriwaki, Jun-ichiro

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a 3-D segmentation method that automatically extracts soft tissue from multi-sliced MRI head images. MRI produces a sequence of two-dimensional (2-D) images which contains three-dimensional (3-D) information of organs. To utilize such information we need effective algorithms to treat 3-D digital images and to extract organs and tissues of interest. We developed a method to extract the brain from MRI images which uses a region growing procedure and integrates information of uniformity of gray levels and information of the presence of edge segments in the local area around the pixel of interest. First we generate a kernel region which is a part of brain tissue by simple thresholding. Then we grow the region by means of a region growing algorithm under the control of 3-D edge existence to obtain the region of the brain. Our method is rather simple because it uses basic 3-D image processing techniques like spatial difference. It is robust for variation of gray levels inside a tissue since it also refers to the edge information in the process of region growing. Therefore, the method is flexible enough to be applicable to the segmentation of other images including soft tissues which have complicated shapes and fluctuation in gray levels. (author)

  8. The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerersdorfer, T.

    2010-09-01

    The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.

  9. Randomizing growing networks with a time-respecting null model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Medo, Matúš

    2018-05-01

    Complex networks are often used to represent systems that are not static but grow with time: People make new friendships, new papers are published and refer to the existing ones, and so forth. To assess the statistical significance of measurements made on such networks, we propose a randomization methodology—a time-respecting null model—that preserves both the network's degree sequence and the time evolution of individual nodes' degree values. By preserving the temporal linking patterns of the analyzed system, the proposed model is able to factor out the effect of the system's temporal patterns on its structure. We apply the model to the citation network of Physical Review scholarly papers and the citation network of US movies. The model reveals that the two data sets are strikingly different with respect to their degree-degree correlations, and we discuss the important implications of this finding on the information provided by paradigmatic node centrality metrics such as indegree and Google's PageRank. The randomization methodology proposed here can be used to assess the significance of any structural property in growing networks, which could bring new insights into the problems where null models play a critical role, such as the detection of communities and network motifs.

  10. Landscape planning for agridevelopment at regional scale: an example from cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra, India

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    Bhaskara Phaneendra Bhaskar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The basaltic landscape planning on the hot semiarid ecosystem in cotton growing Yavatmal district, Maharashtra tends to concentrate on 52 per cent of total cultivated area with 43 per cent of rural families living below poverty line posing major problem for environmental protection and resource management. Concepts of sustainable development at regional-level planning suggested that there is a growing concern for the landscape community to develop a strategic regional agricultural planning perspective in order to assist landscape planning goals. These challenges were explored with particular reference to the cotton growing Yavatmal district in Maharashtra through baseline land resource / agronomic surveys and assessing the production potential of regional rural landscapes for crop planning. Landscape analysis, premised on the geopedological and elevation constructs, culminated in a spatial coverage of hills and ridges (12.6 per cent of total area in northern and central parts whereas plateaus (29.3 per cent in association with isolated hills, mesas and butte and escarpments (17.7 per cent, pediplains (28.8 per cent and plains (8.1 per cent in south western parts of the district. Regional level analysis revealed spatially variable soil typologies dominated by vertisols and vertic intergrades. An exploration and brief account of integration landscape planning was discussed with some reflections on the experience and highlighting some of the problems and potentials of this approach within the regional context.

  11. A Study on the Application of Fuzzy Information Seeded Region Growing in Brain MRI Tissue Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuin-Mu Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available After long-term clinical trials, MRI has been proven to be used in humans harmlessly, and it is popularly used in medical diagnosis. Although MR is highly sensitive, it provides abundant organization information. Therefore, how to transform the multi-spectral images which is easier to be used for doctor’s clinical diagnosis. In this thesis, the fuzzy bidirectional edge detection method is used to solve conventional SRG problem of growing order in the initial seed stages. In order to overcome the problems of the different regions, although it is the same Euclidean distance for region growing and merging process stages, we present the peak detection method to improve them. The standard deviation target generation process (SDTGP is applied to guarantee the regions merging process does not cause over- or undersegmentation. Experimental results reveal that FISRG segments a multispectral MR image much more effectively than FAST and K-means.

  12. A growing social network model in geographical space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco

    2017-09-01

    In this work we propose a new model for the generation of social networks that includes their often ignored spatial aspects. The model is a growing one and links are created either taking space into account, or disregarding space and only considering the degree of target nodes. These two effects can be mixed linearly in arbitrary proportions through a parameter. We numerically show that for a given range of the combination parameter, and for given mean degree, the generated network class shares many important statistical features with those observed in actual social networks, including the spatial dependence of connections. Moreover, we show that the model provides a good qualitative fit to some measured social networks.

  13. Automated Segmentation of Coronary Arteries Based on Statistical Region Growing and Heuristic Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Tian

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The segmentation of coronary arteries is a vital process that helps cardiovascular radiologists detect and quantify stenosis. In this paper, we propose a fully automated coronary artery segmentation from cardiac data volume. The method is built on a statistics region growing together with a heuristic decision. First, the heart region is extracted using a multi-atlas-based approach. Second, the vessel structures are enhanced via a 3D multiscale line filter. Next, seed points are detected automatically through a threshold preprocessing and a subsequent morphological operation. Based on the set of detected seed points, a statistics-based region growing is applied. Finally, results are obtained by setting conservative parameters. A heuristic decision method is then used to obtain the desired result automatically because parameters in region growing vary in different patients, and the segmentation requires full automation. The experiments are carried out on a dataset that includes eight-patient multivendor cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA volume data. The DICE similarity index, mean distance, and Hausdorff distance metrics are employed to compare the proposed algorithm with two state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is capable of performing complete, robust, and accurate extraction of coronary arteries.

  14. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  15. A dynamic cellular vertex model of growing epithelial tissues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shao-Zhen; Li, Bo; Feng, Xi-Qiao

    2017-04-01

    Intercellular interactions play a significant role in a wide range of biological functions and processes at both the cellular and tissue scales, for example, embryogenesis, organogenesis, and cancer invasion. In this paper, a dynamic cellular vertex model is presented to study the morphomechanics of a growing epithelial monolayer. The regulating role of stresses in soft tissue growth is revealed. It is found that the cells originating from the same parent cell in the monolayer can orchestrate into clustering patterns as the tissue grows. Collective cell migration exhibits a feature of spatial correlation across multiple cells. Dynamic intercellular interactions can engender a variety of distinct tissue behaviors in a social context. Uniform cell proliferation may render high and heterogeneous residual compressive stresses, while stress-regulated proliferation can effectively release the stresses, reducing the stress heterogeneity in the tissue. The results highlight the critical role of mechanical factors in the growth and morphogenesis of epithelial tissues and help understand the development and invasion of epithelial tumors.

  16. Nucleus and cytoplasm segmentation in microscopic images using K-means clustering and region growing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrafzadeh, Omid; Dehnavi, Alireza Mehri

    2015-01-01

    Segmentation of leukocytes acts as the foundation for all automated image-based hematological disease recognition systems. Most of the time, hematologists are interested in evaluation of white blood cells only. Digital image processing techniques can help them in their analysis and diagnosis. The main objective of this paper is to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment them into their two dominant elements, nucleus and cytoplasm. The segmentation is conducted using two stages of applying K-means clustering. First, the nuclei are segmented using K-means clustering. Then, a proposed method based on region growing is applied to separate the connected nuclei. Next, the nuclei are subtracted from the original image. Finally, the cytoplasm is segmented using the second stage of K-means clustering. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to extract the nucleus and cytoplasm regions accurately and works well even though there is no significant contrast between the components in the image. In this paper, a method based on K-means clustering and region growing is proposed in order to detect leukocytes from a blood smear microscopic image and segment its components, the nucleus and the cytoplasm. As region growing step of the algorithm relies on the information of edges, it will not able to separate the connected nuclei more accurately in poor edges and it requires at least a weak edge to exist between the nuclei. The nucleus and cytoplasm segments of a leukocyte can be used for feature extraction and classification which leads to automated leukemia detection.

  17. The Sabethines of Northern Andean Coffee-Growing Regions of Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suaza-Vasco, Juan; López-Rubio, Andrés; Galeano, Juan; Uribe, Sandra; Vélez, Iván; Porter, Charles

    2015-06-01

    Sampling for sabethine mosquitoes occurred intermittently from September 2007 to April 2013 in 17 municipalities, located in 5 departments (divisions) in the northern Andean coffee-growing regions of Colombia. Of the 9 genera within the Sabethini tribe known to occur in the Neotropical region, 6 were encountered including 15 species: Jonhbelkinia ulopus, Limatus durhamii, Sabethes ignotus, Sa. luxodens, Sa. undosus, Shannoniana fluviatilis, Trichoprosopon compressum, Tr. digitatum, Tr. evansae, Tr. pallidiventer s.l., Tr. pallidiventer s.s., Wyeomyia arthrostigma, Wy. oblita, Wy. ulocoma, and Wy. undulata. The species Sa. luxodens and Wy. undulata constitute new records for Colombia. These records broaden the knowledge of this important group that includes some important species related to the arbovirus transmission. Records are from the northern Colombian Andes, a region noted for coffee cultivation and ecotourism.

  18. Towards the use of dynamic growing seasons in a chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakalli, A.; Simpson, D.

    2012-12-01

    Chemical transport models (CTMs), used for the prediction of, for example, nitrogen deposition or air quality changes, require estimates of the growing season of plants for a number of reasons. Typically, the growing seasons are defined in a very simplified way in CTMs, using fixed dates or simple functions. In order to explore the importance of more realistic growing season estimates, we have developed a new and simple method (the T5 method) for calculating the start of the growing season (SGS) of birch (which we use as a surrogate for deciduous trees), suitable for use in CTMs and other modelling systems. We developed the T5 method from observations, and here we compare with these and other methodologies, and show that with just two parameters T5 captures well the spatial variation in SGS across Europe. We use the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model to illustrate the importance of improved SGS estimates for ozone and two metrics associated with ozone damage to vegetation. This study shows that although inclusion of more realistic growing seasons has only small effects on annual average concentrations of pollutants such as ozone, the metrics associated with vegetation risk from ozone are significantly affected. This work demonstrates a strong need to include more realistic treatments of growing seasons in CTMs. The method used here could also be suitable for other types of models that require information on vegetation cover, such as meteorological and regional climate models. In future work, the T5 and other methods will be further evaluated for other forest species, as well as for agricultural and grassland land covers, which are important for emissions and deposition of reactive nitrogen compounds.

  19. Segmentation of Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Infection Using Modified Automatic Seeded Region Growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordin Abdul

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the image segmentation process of positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography (PET/CT imaging, previous works used information in CT only for segmenting the image without utilizing the information that can be provided by PET. This paper proposes to utilize the hot spot values in PET to guide the segmentation in CT, in automatic image segmentation using seeded region growing (SRG technique. This automatic segmentation routine can be used as part of automatic diagnostic tools. In addition to the original initial seed selection using hot spot values in PET, this paper also introduces a new SRG growing criterion, the sliding windows. Fourteen images of patients having extrapulmonary tuberculosis have been examined using the above-mentioned method. To evaluate the performance of the modified SRG, three fidelity criteria are measured: percentage of under-segmentation area, percentage of over-segmentation area, and average time consumption. In terms of the under-segmentation percentage, SRG with average of the region growing criterion shows the least error percentage (51.85%. Meanwhile, SRG with local averaging and variance yielded the best results (2.67% for the over-segmentation percentage. In terms of the time complexity, the modified SRG with local averaging and variance growing criterion shows the best performance with 5.273 s average execution time. The results indicate that the proposed methods yield fairly good performance in terms of the over- and under-segmentation area. The results also demonstrated that the hot spot values in PET can be used to guide the automatic segmentation in CT image.

  20. Segmentasi Pembuluh Darah Retina Pada Citra Fundus Menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding Dan Region Growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deni Sutaji

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available AbstrakSegmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina menjadi hal yang substansial dalam dunia kedokteran, karena dapat digunakan untuk mendeteksi penyakit, seperti: diabetic retinopathy, hypertension, dan cardiovascular. Dokter membutuhkan waktu sekitar dua jam untuk mendeteksi pembuluh darah retina, sehingga diperlukan metode yang dapat membantu screening agar lebih cepat.Penelitian sebelumnya mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah yang sensitif terhadap variasi ukuran lebar pembuluh darah namun masih terjadi over-segmentasi pada area patologi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan metode segmentasi pembuluh darah pada citra fundus retina yang dapat mengurangi over-segmentasi pada area patologi menggunakan Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding dan Region Growing.Metode yang diusulkan terdiri dari 3 tahap, yaitu segmentasi pembuluh darah utama, deteksi area patologi dan segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah utama menggunakan high-pass filtering dan tophat reconstruction pada kanal hijau citra yang sudah diperbaiki kontrasnya sehingga lebih jelas perbedaan antara pembuluh darah dan background. Tahap deteksi area patologi menggunakan metode Gradient Based Adaptive Thresholding. Tahap segmentasi pembuluh darah tipis menggunakan Region Growing berdasarkan informasi label pembuluh darah utama dan label area patologi. Hasil segmentasi pembuluh darah utama dan pembuluh darah tipis kemudian digabungkan sehingga menjadi keluaran sistem berupa citra biner pembuluh darah. Berdasarkan hasil uji coba, metode ini mampu melakukan segmentasi pembuluh darah retina dengan baik pada citra fundus DRIVE, yaitu dengan akurasi rata-rata 95.25% dan nilai Area Under Curve (AUC pada kurva Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC sebesar 74.28%.                           Kata Kunci: citra fundus retina, gradient based adaptive thresholding, patologi, pembuluh darah retina, region growing

  1. Abundance and distribution of microplastics within surface sediments of a key shellfish growing region of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmiruk, T N; Kazmiruk, V D; Bendell, L I

    2018-01-01

    The abundance and distribution of microplastics within 5 sediment size classes (>5000 μm, 1000-5000 μm, 250-1000 μm, 250-0.63 μm and Microplastics were found at all sampling locations indicating widespread contamination of this region with these particles. Three types of microplastics were recovered: microbeads, which occurred in the greatest number (up to 25000/kg dry sediment) and microfibers and microfragments, which were much less in number compared with microbeads and occurred in similar amounts (100-300/kg dry sediment). Microbeads were recovered primarily in the microplastics were spatially dependent with principal component analysis (PCA) indicating that 84 percent of the variation in abundance and distribution was due to the presence of high numbers of microbeads at three locations within the study region. At these sites, microbeads expressed as a percent component of the sediment by weight was similar to key geochemical components that govern trace metal behavior and availability to benthic organisms. Microbeads have been shown to accumulate metals from the aquatic environment, hence in addition to the traditional geochemical components such as silt and organic matter, microplastics also need to be considered as a sediment component that can influence trace metal geochemistry. Our findings have shown that BC's premier oyster growing region is highly contaminated with microplastics, notably microbeads. It would be prudent to assess the degree to which oysters from this region are ingesting microplastics. If so, it would have direct implications for Canada's oyster farming industry with respect to the health of the oyster and the quality of product that is being farmed and sets an example for other shellfish growing regions of the world.

  2. Integrating multiscale polar active contours and region growing for microcalcifications segmentation in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arikidis, N S; Karahaliou, A; Skiadopoulos, S; Panagiotakis, G; Costaridou, L; Likaki, E

    2009-01-01

    Morphology of individual microcalcifications is an important clinical factor in microcalcification clusters diagnosis. Accurate segmentation remains a difficult task due to microcalcifications small size, low contrast, fuzzy nature and low distinguishability from surrounding tissue. A novel application of active rays (polar transformed active contours) on B-spline wavelet representation is employed, to provide initial estimates of microcalcification boundary. Then, a region growing method is used with pixel aggregation constrained by the microcalcification boundary estimates, to obtain the final microcalcification boundary. The method was tested on dataset of 49 microcalcification clusters (30 benign, 19 malignant), originating from the DDSM database. An observer study was conducted to evaluate segmentation accuracy of the proposed method, on a 5-point rating scale (from 5:excellent to 1:very poor). The average accuracy rating was 3.98±0.81 when multiscale active rays were combined to region growing and 2.93±0.92 when combined to linear polynomial fitting, while the difference in rating of segmentation accuracy was statistically significant (p < 0.05).

  3. New wine-growing regions of Brazil and their importance in the evolution of Brazilian wine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wurz Douglas André

    2017-01-01

    . Add to this a dry, well-drained and granitic soil, especially for growing Syrah and Viogner. The São Francisco River Valley presents flat lands, at an altitude of 400 meters. Located outside the suitable range for growing grapes, this semi-arid region presents low rainfall (less than 500 mm a year and strong insolation. Its permeable clay soils have proven to be suitable for the acclimatization of grapevines such as Moscatel, Cabernet Sauvignon and Syrah.

  4. Geographically Sourcing Cocaine’s Origin - Delineation of the Nineteen Major Coca Growing Regions in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallette, Jennifer R.; Casale, John F.; Jordan, James; Morello, David R.; Beyer, Paul M.

    2016-03-01

    Previously, geo-sourcing to five major coca growing regions within South America was accomplished. However, the expansion of coca cultivation throughout South America made sub-regional origin determinations increasingly difficult. The former methodology was recently enhanced with additional stable isotope analyses (2H and 18O) to fully characterize cocaine due to the varying environmental conditions in which the coca was grown. An improved data analysis method was implemented with the combination of machine learning and multivariate statistical analysis methods to provide further partitioning between growing regions. Here, we show how the combination of trace cocaine alkaloids, stable isotopes, and multivariate statistical analyses can be used to classify illicit cocaine as originating from one of 19 growing regions within South America. The data obtained through this approach can be used to describe current coca cultivation and production trends, highlight trafficking routes, as well as identify new coca growing regions.

  5. Distributions of Salmonella Subtypes Differ between Two U.S. Produce-Growing Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Salmonella accounts for approximately 50% of produce-associated outbreaks in the United States, several of which have been traced back to contamination in the produce production environment. To quantify Salmonella diversity and aid in identification of Salmonella contamination sources, we characterized Salmonella isolates from two geographically diverse produce-growing regions in the United States. Initially, we characterized the Salmonella serotype and subtype diversity associated with 1,677 samples collected from 33 produce farms in New York State (NYS). Among these 1,677 samples, 74 were Salmonella positive, yielding 80 unique isolates (from 147 total isolates), which represented 14 serovars and 23 different pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) types. To explore regional Salmonella diversity associated with production environments, we collected a smaller set of samples (n = 65) from South Florida (SFL) production environments and compared the Salmonella diversity associated with these samples with the diversity found among NYS production environments. Among these 65 samples, 23 were Salmonella positive, yielding 32 unique isolates (from 81 total isolates), which represented 11 serovars and 17 different PFGE types. The most common serovars isolated in NYS were Salmonella enterica serovars Newport, Cerro, and Thompson, while common serovars isolated in SFL were Salmonella serovars Saphra and Newport and S. enterica subsp. diarizonae serovar 50:r:z. High PFGE type diversity (Simpson's diversity index, 0.90 ± 0.02) was observed among Salmonella isolates across both regions; only three PFGE types were shared between the two regions. The probability of three or fewer shared PFGE types was Salmonella isolates were considerably different between the two sampled regions. These findings suggest the potential for PFGE-based source tracking of Salmonella in production environments. PMID:24747908

  6. Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 1. Model description

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    A dynamic mechanistic model was developed for growing and fattening pigs. The aim of the model was to predict growth rate and the chemical and anatomical body compositions from the digestible nutrient intake of gilts (20-105 kg live weight). The model represents the partitioning of digestible

  7. GROWING REGIONAL SCIENTIFIC MIGRATION AND MOBILITY: THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganna KHARLAMOVA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article contributes to the growing strand of the literature on the scientific mobility and migration in the European Union (EU and the Eastern Partnership. The paper provides the quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits of ‘smart’ labour migration in the Eastern Partnership (EaP countries (particularly, Ukraine, explores the potential of future new rules for the mobility within the EU-EaP, and proposes some policy recommendations to enhance the benefits stemming from such flows. One of the rigorous idea – to provide an explanation whether the scientific migration and mobility, and remittances impact on economic development in the donor and recipient states, and, in particular, how important it is as a resource for the EaP enhancing. The convergence effect of scientific migration in the EU and the Eastern Partnership region is considered by means of calculative assessment.

  8. Fiber Length of Calabrian Pine as Related to Position in Cross Section and Growing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim BEKTAS

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a better understanding of the variation of growing regions and differences in distance from pith to bark on wood fiber lengths. For this aim, Calabrian pines collected from five different growth regions, namely Kahramanmaras, Burdur, Muğla, İzmir and Balıkesir, were used to determine fiber lengths. In experiment, specimens prepared from logs cross section which is taken from three different distances from pith to bark (r/6, 3r/6 and 5r/6 were evaluated. As a result of analysis, distance from pith in the same area have shown a significant effect on fiber dimensions. In the evaluation among the habitat, it was obtained that r/6 and 3r/6 have a significant effect (p<0.001, p<0.05 respectively on fiber dimensions, however; 5r/6 has a nonsignificant. The results showed that, the quite suitable habitat in terms of fiber lenghts is Balıkesir which has high sand (64.4%, moderate clay (24.2% and lime-poor (3.1% soils. These results will make a positive contribution undoubtedly for the plantations will be established in the future of this species.

  9. Automated lung tumor segmentation for whole body PET volume based on novel downhill region growing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballangan, Cherry; Wang, Xiuying; Eberl, Stefan; Fulham, Michael; Feng, Dagan

    2010-03-01

    We propose an automated lung tumor segmentation method for whole body PET images based on a novel downhill region growing (DRG) technique, which regards homogeneous tumor hotspots as 3D monotonically decreasing functions. The method has three major steps: thoracic slice extraction with K-means clustering of the slice features; hotspot segmentation with DRG; and decision tree analysis based hotspot classification. To overcome the common problem of leakage into adjacent hotspots in automated lung tumor segmentation, DRG employs the tumors' SUV monotonicity features. DRG also uses gradient magnitude of tumors' SUV to improve tumor boundary definition. We used 14 PET volumes from patients with primary NSCLC for validation. The thoracic region extraction step achieved good and consistent results for all patients despite marked differences in size and shape of the lungs and the presence of large tumors. The DRG technique was able to avoid the problem of leakage into adjacent hotspots and produced a volumetric overlap fraction of 0.61 +/- 0.13 which outperformed four other methods where the overlap fraction varied from 0.40 +/- 0.24 to 0.59 +/- 0.14. Of the 18 tumors in 14 NSCLC studies, 15 lesions were classified correctly, 2 were false negative and 15 were false positive.

  10. Attenuation correction with region growing method used in the positron emission mammography imaging system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xiao-Yue; Li, Lin; Yin, Peng-Fei; Yun, Ming-Kai; Chai, Pei; Huang, Xian-Chao; Sun, Xiao-Li; Wei, Long

    2015-10-01

    The Positron Emission Mammography imaging system (PEMi) provides a novel nuclear diagnosis method dedicated for breast imaging. With a better resolution than whole body PET, PEMi can detect millimeter-sized breast tumors. To address the requirement of semi-quantitative analysis with a radiotracer concentration map of the breast, a new attenuation correction method based on a three-dimensional seeded region growing image segmentation (3DSRG-AC) method has been developed. The method gives a 3D connected region as the segmentation result instead of image slices. The continuity property of the segmentation result makes this new method free of activity variation of breast tissues. The threshold value chosen is the key process for the segmentation method. The first valley in the grey level histogram of the reconstruction image is set as the lower threshold, which works well in clinical application. Results show that attenuation correction for PEMi improves the image quality and the quantitative accuracy of radioactivity distribution determination. Attenuation correction also improves the probability of detecting small and early breast tumors. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of The Chinese Academy of Sciences (KJCX2-EW-N06)

  11. The Scandinavian regional model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torfing, Jacob; Lidström, Anders; Røiseland, Asbjørn

    2015-01-01

    This article maps how the sub-national regional levels of governance in Denmark, Norway and Sweden have changed from a high degree of institutional convergence to a pattern of institutional divergence. It analyses the similarities and differences in the changes in regional governance and discusses...

  12. Modelling of nutrient partitioning in growing pigs to predict their anatomical body composition. 2. Model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halas, V.; Dijkstra, J.; Babinszky, L.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Gerrits, W.J.J.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of the present paper was to evaluate a dynamic mechanistic model for growing and fattening pigs presented in a companion paper. The model predicted the rate of protein and fat deposition (chemical composition), rate of tissue deposition (anatomical composition) and performance of pigs

  13. Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. PELTONEN-SAINIO

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change offers new opportunities for Finnish field crop production, which is currently limited by the short growing season. A warmer climate will extend the thermal growing season and the physiologically effective part of it. Winters will also become milder, enabling introduction of winter-sown crops to a greater extent than is possible today. With this study we aim to characterise the likely regional differences in capacity to grow different seed producing crops. Prolongation of the Finnish growing season was estimated using a 0.5º latitude × 0.5º longitude gridded dataset from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dataset comprised an average estimate from 19 global climate models of the response of Finnish climate to low (B1 and high (A2 scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for 30-year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Growing season temperature sums that suit crop growth and are agronomically feasible in Finland are anticipated to increase by some 140 °Cd by 2025, 300 °Cd by 2055 and 470 °Cd by 2085 in scenario A2, when averaged over regions, and earlier sowing is expected to take place, but not later harvests. Accordingly, the extent of cultivable areas for the commonly grown major and minor crops will increase considerably. Due to the higher base temperature requirement for maize (Zea mays L. growth than for temperate crops, we estimate that silage maize could become a Finnish field crop for the most favourable growing regions only at the end of this century. Winters are getting milder, but it will take almost the whole century until winters such as those that are typical for southern Sweden and Denmark are experienced on a wide scale in Finland. It is possible that introduction of winter-sown crops (cereals and rapeseed will represent major risks due to fluctuating winter conditions, and this could delay their adaptation for many decades. Such risks need to be

  14. Automatic segmentation of meningioma from non-contrasted brain MRI integrating fuzzy clustering and region growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Chun-Chih

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI has become important in brain tumor diagnosis. Using this modality, physicians can locate specific pathologies by analyzing differences in tissue character presented in different types of MR images. This paper uses an algorithm integrating fuzzy-c-mean (FCM and region growing techniques for automated tumor image segmentation from patients with menigioma. Only non-contrasted T1 and T2 -weighted MR images are included in the analysis. The study's aims are to correctly locate tumors in the images, and to detect those situated in the midline position of the brain. Methods The study used non-contrasted T1- and T2-weighted MR images from 29 patients with menigioma. After FCM clustering, 32 groups of images from each patient group were put through the region-growing procedure for pixels aggregation. Later, using knowledge-based information, the system selected tumor-containing images from these groups and merged them into one tumor image. An alternative semi-supervised method was added at this stage for comparison with the automatic method. Finally, the tumor image was optimized by a morphology operator. Results from automatic segmentation were compared to the "ground truth" (GT on a pixel level. Overall data were then evaluated using a quantified system. Results The quantified parameters, including the "percent match" (PM and "correlation ratio" (CR, suggested a high match between GT and the present study's system, as well as a fair level of correspondence. The results were compatible with those from other related studies. The system successfully detected all of the tumors situated at the midline of brain. Six cases failed in the automatic group. One also failed in the semi-supervised alternative. The remaining five cases presented noticeable edema inside the brain. In the 23 successful cases, the PM and CR values in the two groups were highly related. Conclusions Results indicated

  15. Application of nuclear technologies for growing of fruits which are of regional importance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultanova, Z.K.; Kharlamova, N.A.; Aidarkhanova, G.S.; Kudabayev, A.B.; Andropenkov, S.A.; Maltseva, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    Application of recent achievements of nuclear techniques in different applied branches develops in such main directions as radiation-biological technologies under stimulation of plants, sterilization, increasing of storage terms, disinfestation of foodstuff, forage, raw material of animal and vegetable origin, dressing, instruments, which cannot be exposed to thermal and chemical processing. It is of practical interest the irradiation of fruits and berries cuttings, which are of regional importance and been growing in nurseries. This method is already widely introduced into practice as one of efficient methods. Aim of research was the optimal irradiation dose selection for stimulation of currant cuttings gemmas before bedding out. The sorts of black and goldish currants were used in the experiment. Irradiation was conducted in 60 Co gamma-ray source. As the study materials the black currant cuttings of the 'Katyusha' sort and goldish currants of the sort 'Uzbekistanskaya' were used. For each variant 20 cuttings were prepared.Cuttings were bedded out. Drop irrigation was employed. In the sequel agricultural monitoring was carried out. The results of rooting and development of irradiated samples will be presented in report

  16. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

    2010-01-01

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  17. Insects associated with tropical foliage produced in the coffee growing region of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis F. Aristizábal

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a survey of insects and pest management practices on 34 farms growing ornamental tropical foliage plants in the central coffee region of Colombia over two years. Tropical foliage provided habitat for a diverse range of insects. In total, phytophagous or detritivorous insects from six orders, 40 families and 62 genera were collected. The most common were Hemiptera (29 genera from 16 families, followed by Coleoptera (17 genera from 4 families, Diptera (5 genera from 5 families, Lepidoptera (5 genera from 4 families, Hymenoptera (3 genera from 2 families and Orthoptera (2 genera from 2 families. The most common phytophagous species were leaf cutting ants (Atta and Acromyrmex spp., leaf beetles (Chrysomelidae, leafhoppers (Cicadellidae, stinkbugs (Pentatomidae, squash bugs (Coreidae, tree hoppers (Membracidae and plant hoppers (Fulgoridae. Beneficial insects identified from tropical foliage included predators and parasitoids amongst 5 orders, 12 families and 22 genera. The most abundant were predators among the Coccinellidae, Chrysopidae, Reduviidae, Lycidae and Formicidae but only low numbers of parasitoids (Ichneumonidae, Braconidae and Tachinidae were collected. A pest management questionnaire given to growers revealed a preponderance of reliance on broad spectrum insecticides with a smaller number of growers (approximately one third also using some biological control methods. Our survey contributes basic information regarding diversity of Neotropical insects associated with ornamental foliage plants.

  18. Building confidence and credibility amid growing model and computing complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, K. J.; Mahajan, S.; Veneziani, C.; Kennedy, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global Earth system models are developed to answer an ever-wider range of science questions, software products that provide robust verification, validation, and evaluation must evolve in tandem. Measuring the degree to which these new models capture past behavior, predict the future, and provide the certainty of predictions is becoming ever more challenging for reasons that are generally well known, yet are still challenging to address. Two specific and divergent needs for analysis of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) model - but with a similar software philosophy - are presented to show how a model developer-based focus can address analysis needs during expansive model changes to provide greater fidelity and execute on multi-petascale computing facilities. A-PRIME is a python script-based quick-look overview of a fully-coupled global model configuration to determine quickly if it captures specific behavior before significant computer time and expense is invested. EVE is an ensemble-based software framework that focuses on verification of performance-based ACME model development, such as compiler or machine settings, to determine the equivalence of relevant climate statistics. The challenges and solutions for analysis of multi-petabyte output data are highlighted from the aspect of the scientist using the software, with the aim of fostering discussion and further input from the community about improving developer confidence and community credibility.

  19. Mapping growing stock volume and forest live biomass: a case study of the Polissya region of Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilous, Andrii; Myroniuk, Viktor; Holiaka, Dmytrii; Bilous, Svitlana; See, Linda; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2017-10-01

    Forest inventory and biomass mapping are important tasks that require inputs from multiple data sources. In this paper we implement two methods for the Ukrainian region of Polissya: random forest (RF) for tree species prediction and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) for growing stock volume and biomass mapping. We examined the suitability of the five-band RapidEye satellite image to predict the distribution of six tree species. The accuracy of RF is quite high: ~99% for forest/non-forest mask and 89% for tree species prediction. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable in the RF model improved the performance of tree species classification. We evaluated different distance metrics for the k-NN method, including Euclidean or Mahalanobis distance, most similar neighbor (MSN), gradient nearest neighbor, and independent component analysis. The MSN with the four nearest neighbors (k = 4) is the most precise (according to the root-mean-square deviation) for predicting forest attributes across the study area. The k-NN method allowed us to estimate growing stock volume with an accuracy of 3 m3 ha-1 and for live biomass of about 2 t ha-1 over the study area.

  20. Computer modeling in developmental biology: growing today, essential tomorrow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, James

    2017-12-01

    D'Arcy Thompson was a true pioneer, applying mathematical concepts and analyses to the question of morphogenesis over 100 years ago. The centenary of his famous book, On Growth and Form , is therefore a great occasion on which to review the types of computer modeling now being pursued to understand the development of organs and organisms. Here, I present some of the latest modeling projects in the field, covering a wide range of developmental biology concepts, from molecular patterning to tissue morphogenesis. Rather than classifying them according to scientific question, or scale of problem, I focus instead on the different ways that modeling contributes to the scientific process and discuss the likely future of modeling in developmental biology. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  1. An osmotic model of the growing pollen tube.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian E Hill

    Full Text Available Pollen tube growth is central to the sexual reproduction of plants and is a longstanding model for cellular tip growth. For rapid tip growth, cell wall deposition and hardening must balance the rate of osmotic water uptake, and this involves the control of turgor pressure. Pressure contributes directly to both the driving force for water entry and tip expansion causing thinning of wall material. Understanding tip growth requires an analysis of the coordination of these processes and their regulation. Here we develop a quantitative physiological model which includes water entry by osmosis, the incorporation of cell wall material and the spreading of that material as a film at the tip. Parameters of the model have been determined from the literature and from measurements, by light, confocal and electron microscopy, together with results from experiments made on dye entry and plasmolysis in Lilium longiflorum. The model yields values of variables such as osmotic and turgor pressure, growth rates and wall thickness. The model and its predictive capacity were tested by comparing programmed simulations with experimental observations following perturbations of the growth medium. The model explains the role of turgor pressure and its observed constancy during oscillations; the stability of wall thickness under different conditions, without which the cell would burst; and some surprising properties such as the need for restricting osmotic permeability to a constant area near the tip, which was experimentally confirmed. To achieve both constancy of pressure and wall thickness under the range of conditions observed in steady-state growth the model reveals the need for a sensor that detects the driving potential for water entry and controls the deposition rate of wall material at the tip.

  2. An Osmotic Model of the Growing Pollen Tube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Adrian E.; Shachar-Hill, Bruria; Skepper, Jeremy N.; Powell, Janet; Shachar-Hill, Yair

    2012-01-01

    Pollen tube growth is central to the sexual reproduction of plants and is a longstanding model for cellular tip growth. For rapid tip growth, cell wall deposition and hardening must balance the rate of osmotic water uptake, and this involves the control of turgor pressure. Pressure contributes directly to both the driving force for water entry and tip expansion causing thinning of wall material. Understanding tip growth requires an analysis of the coordination of these processes and their regulation. Here we develop a quantitative physiological model which includes water entry by osmosis, the incorporation of cell wall material and the spreading of that material as a film at the tip. Parameters of the model have been determined from the literature and from measurements, by light, confocal and electron microscopy, together with results from experiments made on dye entry and plasmolysis in Lilium longiflorum. The model yields values of variables such as osmotic and turgor pressure, growth rates and wall thickness. The model and its predictive capacity were tested by comparing programmed simulations with experimental observations following perturbations of the growth medium. The model explains the role of turgor pressure and its observed constancy during oscillations; the stability of wall thickness under different conditions, without which the cell would burst; and some surprising properties such as the need for restricting osmotic permeability to a constant area near the tip, which was experimentally confirmed. To achieve both constancy of pressure and wall thickness under the range of conditions observed in steady-state growth the model reveals the need for a sensor that detects the driving potential for water entry and controls the deposition rate of wall material at the tip. PMID:22615784

  3. Radioactivity in wild-growing mushrooms of the Calabria region, south of Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caridi, F.; Belmusto, G.

    2017-01-01

    Wild-growing mushrooms are a complementary foodstuff, widely consumed as a delicacy, in Italy. They are considered excellent bioindicators of environmental pollution and the accumulation of radionuclides can pose a radiological hazard. 137Cs and 40K activity concentrations were measured through HPGe gamma-spectrometry in different mushroom species (Agaricus arvensis, Leccinum quercinum, Boletus aereus, Lactarius deliciosus, Boletus edulis, Macrolepiota konradii, Cantharellus lutescens) collected from four different sampling sites in the Calabria region, south of Italy. Experimental values were found to be in the range from (0.3 ± 0.1) Bq/kg f.m. (fresh mass) to (73.1 ± 4.6) Bq/kg f.m. for 137Cs and from (46.9 ± 10.7) Bq/kg f.m. to (161.3 ± 12.9) Bq/kg f.m. for 40K, respectively. All values were much lower than the specific activity limit set by the international legislation at 600 Bq/kg f.m. for 137Cs and at 1,258 Bq/kg f.m. for 40K, respectively. Experimental activity concentrations allowed us to determine the effective dose due to the ingestion of mushrooms by adult members of the population. It was found in the range from 0.25 to 1.35 μSv/y, much lower than the recommended level for the public (1 mSv/y). Data obtained in this article provide useful information on the environmental risk and can be further used for a radiological mapping of the studied area.

  4. Automated measurement of epidermal thickness from optical coherence tomography images using line region growing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delacruz, Jomer; Weissman, Jesse; Gossage, Kirk

    2010-02-01

    Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive imaging modality that acquires cross sectional images of tissue in-vivo. It accelerates skin diagnosis by eliminating invasive biopsy and laborious histology in the process. Dermatologists have widely used it for looking at morphology of skin diseases such as psoriasis, dermatitis, basal cell carcinoma etc. Skin scientists have also successfully used it for looking at differences in epidermal thickness and its underlying structure with respect to age, body sites, ethnicity, gender, and other related factors. Similar to other in-vivo imaging systems, OCT images suffer from a high degree of speckle and noise content, which hinders examination of tissue structures. Most of the previous work in OCT segmentation of skin was done manually. This compromised the quality of the results by limiting the analyses to a few frames per area. In this paper, we discuss a region growing method for automatic identification of the upper and lower boundaries of the epidermis in living human skin tissue. This image analysis method utilizes images obtained from a frequency-domain OCT. This system is high-resolution and high-speed, and thus capable of capturing volumetric images of the skin in short time. The three-dimensional (3D) data provides additional information that is used in the segmentation process to help compensate for the inherent noise in the images. This method not only provides a better estimation of the epidermal thickness, but also generates a 3D surface map of the epidermal-dermal junction, from which underlying topography can be visualized and further quantified.

  5. The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosana Rosseto de Oliveira

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil.This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR.A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to <37 weeks, which rose from 7.0% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92, inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15, Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67 and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36, low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55 and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74 were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90, as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase. Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year and low birth weight (-1.43% decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year.Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care

  6. The Growing Trend of Moderate Preterm Births: An Ecological Study in One Region of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Rosana Rosseto de; Melo, Emiliana Cristina; Falavina, Larissa Pereira; Mathias, Thais Aidar de Freitas

    2015-01-01

    Preterm birth is a serious public health problem, as it is linked to high rates of neonatal and child morbidity and mortality, with Brazil listed among the countries with the ten highest numbers of premature births. Nonetheless, knowledge is scarce regarding prematurity and associated factors in mid-sized cities. The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of preterm births and associated factors in a municipality located in the state of Paraná, Brazil. This was an ecological time series study of births recorded into the Live Birth Information System for residents of Maringá, Paraná, Brazil, between 2000 and 2013. The polynomial regression model was used for trend analysis of preterm birth, characteristics of the mother, gestation and delivery, and newborn. The association with preterm birth was analyzed using odds ratio (OR). A total of 61,634 live births were analyzed, of which 5,632 were preterm births. Prematurity increased from 7.9% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2013 -an average increase of 0.54% per year (r2 = 0.93)-with a growing share of moderate preterm births (32 to 2000 to 9.7% in 2013. Between 2011 and 2013, multiple pregnancy (OR = 16.64; CI = 13.24-20.92), inadequate number of prenatal visits (OR = 2.81; CI = 2.51-3.15), Apgar score below 7 at 1 (OR = 4.07; CI = 3.55-4.67) and 5 minutes (OR = 10.88; CI = 7.71-15.36), low birth weight (OR = 38.75; CI = 33.72-44.55) and congenital malformations (OR = 3.18; CI = 2.14-4.74) were associated with preterm birth. A growing trend was observed for multiple pregnancies, with an average annual increase of 0.32% (r2 = 0.90), as well as for C-section birth (2.38% yearly increase). Of all newborn characteristics, Apgar score below 7 at 5 minutes (-0.19% per year) and low birth weight (-1.43%) decreased, whereas congenital malformations rose (0.20% per year). Efforts are required to prevent premature delivery, particularly during the moderate period, as well as greater care during the prenatal period towards

  7. A general evolving model for growing bipartite networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Lixin; He, Yinghuan; Liu, Haijun; Du, Ruijin

    2012-01-01

    In this Letter, we propose and study an inner evolving bipartite network model. Significantly, we prove that the degree distribution of two different kinds of nodes both obey power-law form with adjustable exponents. Furthermore, the joint degree distribution of any two nodes for bipartite networks model is calculated analytically by the mean-field method. The result displays that such bipartite networks are nearly uncorrelated networks, which is different from one-mode networks. Numerical simulations and empirical results are given to verify the theoretical results. -- Highlights: ► We proposed a general evolving bipartite network model which was based on priority connection, reconnection and breaking edges. ► We prove that the degree distribution of two different kinds of nodes both obey power-law form with adjustable exponents. ► The joint degree distribution of any two nodes for bipartite networks model is calculated analytically by the mean-field method. ► The result displays that such bipartite networks are nearly uncorrelated networks, which is different from one-mode networks.

  8. Improved Cell Culture Method for Growing Contracting Skeletal Muscle Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquette, Michele L.; Sognier, Marguerite A.

    2013-01-01

    An improved method for culturing immature muscle cells (myoblasts) into a mature skeletal muscle overcomes some of the notable limitations of prior culture methods. The development of the method is a major advance in tissue engineering in that, for the first time, a cell-based model spontaneously fuses and differentiates into masses of highly aligned, contracting myotubes. This method enables (1) the construction of improved two-dimensional (monolayer) skeletal muscle test beds; (2) development of contracting three-dimensional tissue models; and (3) improved transplantable tissues for biomedical and regenerative medicine applications. With adaptation, this method also offers potential application for production of other tissue types (i.e., bone and cardiac) from corresponding precursor cells.

  9. Spatially explicit exposure assessment for small streams in catchments of the orchard growing region `Lake Constance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golla, B.; Bach, M.; Krumpe, J.

    2009-04-01

    1. Introduction Small streams differ greatly from the standardised water body used in the context of aquatic risk assessment for the regulation of plant protection products in Germany. The standard water body is static, with a depth of 0.3 m and a width of 1.0 m. No dilution or water replacement takes place. Spray drift happens always in direction to the water body. There is no variability in drift deposition rate (90th percentile spray drift deposition values [2]). There is no spray drift filtering by vegetation. The application takes place directly adjacent to the water body. In order to establish a more realistic risk assessment procedure the Federal Office for Consumer Protection and Food Safety (BVL) and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) aggreed to replace deterministic assumptions with data distributions and spatially explicit data and introduce probabilistic methods [3, 4, 5]. To consider the spatial and temporal variability in the exposure situations of small streams the hydraulic and morphological characteristics of catchments need to be described as well as the spatial distribution of fields treated with pesticides. As small streams are the dominant type of water body in most German orchard regions, we use the growing region Lake Constance as pilot region. 2. Materials and methods During field surveys we derive basic morphological parameters for small streams in the Lake Constance region. The mean water width/depth ratio is 13 with a mean depth of 0.12 m. The average residence time is 5.6 s/m (n=87) [1]. Orchards are mostly located in the upper parts of the catchments. Based on an authoritative dataset on rivers and streams of Germany (ATKIS DLM25) we constructed a directed network topology for the Lake Constance region. The gradient of the riverbed is calculated for river stretches of > 500 m length. The network for the pilot region consists of 2000 km rivers and streams. 500 km stream length are located within a distance of 150 m to orchards. Within

  10. Generic model of morphological changes in growing colonies of fungi

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Juan M.; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2002-02-01

    Fungal colonies are able to exhibit different morphologies depending on the environmental conditions. This allows them to cope with and adapt to external changes. When grown in solid or semisolid media the bulk of the colony is compact and several morphological transitions have been reported to occur as the external conditions are varied. Here we show how a unified simple mathematical model, which includes the effect of the accumulation of toxic metabolites, can account for the morphological changes observed. Our numerical results are in excellent agreement with experiments carried out with the fungus Aspergillus oryzae on solid agar.

  11. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  12. Global left ventricular function in cardiac CT. Evaluation of an automated 3D region-growing segmentation algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muehlenbruch, Georg; Das, Marco; Hohl, Christian; Wildberger, Joachim E.; Guenther, Rolf W.; Mahnken, Andreas H.; Rinck, Daniel; Flohr, Thomas G.; Koos, Ralf; Knackstedt, Christian

    2006-01-01

    The purpose was to evaluate a new semi-automated 3D region-growing segmentation algorithm for functional analysis of the left ventricle in multislice CT (MSCT) of the heart. Twenty patients underwent contrast-enhanced MSCT of the heart (collimation 16 x 0.75 mm; 120 kV; 550 mAseff). Multiphase image reconstructions with 1-mm axial slices and 8-mm short-axis slices were performed. Left ventricular volume measurements (end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, ejection fraction and stroke volume) from manually drawn endocardial contours in the short axis slices were compared to semi-automated region-growing segmentation of the left ventricle from the 1-mm axial slices. The post-processing-time for both methods was recorded. Applying the new region-growing algorithm in 13/20 patients (65%), proper segmentation of the left ventricle was feasible. In these patients, the signal-to-noise ratio was higher than in the remaining patients (3.2±1.0 vs. 2.6±0.6). Volume measurements of both segmentation algorithms showed an excellent correlation (all P≤0.0001); the limits of agreement for the ejection fraction were 2.3±8.3 ml. In the patients with proper segmentation the mean post-processing time using the region-growing algorithm was diminished by 44.2%. On the basis of a good contrast-enhanced data set, a left ventricular volume analysis using the new semi-automated region-growing segmentation algorithm is technically feasible, accurate and more time-effective. (orig.)

  13. Growing C4 perennial grass for bioenergy using a new Agro-BGC ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Vittorio, A. V.; Anderson, R. S.; Miller, N. L.; Running, S. W.

    2009-12-01

    Accurate, spatially gridded estimates of bioenergy crop yields require 1) biophysically accurate crop growth models and 2) careful parameterization of unavailable inputs to these models. To meet the first requirement we have added the capacity to simulate C4 perennial grass as a bioenergy crop to the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. This new model, hereafter referred to as Agro-BGC, includes enzyme driven C4 photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon/nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that effectively simulates fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. There are four Agro-BGC vegetation parameters that are unavailable for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and to meet the second requirement we have optimized the model across multiple calibration sites to obtain representative values for these parameters. We have verified simulated switchgrass yields against observations at three non-calibration sites in IL. Agro-BGC simulates switchgrass growth and yield at harvest very well at a single site. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme would be adequate for producing regional-scale estimates of bioenergy crop yields on high spatial resolution grids.

  14. Growing Significance of EU Institutions in Promotion of Inter-regional policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella V. Ermakova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the variety of tools and vehicles applied within the EU to expand the prerogative of the regions of the EU member states. The author uses as an example the inter-regional policies in Belgium in respect of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region. The author analyzes the mechanisms of promotion of external regional relations in Belgium as a means of addressing different problems both on national and all-European level, supporting the arguments and conclusions by examples of relevant EU initiatives. The article details the activities of the EU Regional Committee (RC, the EU advisory body with the powers of political initiative, upholding the principle ofsubsidarity in the implementation of the EU member states' regional policies. The involvement of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region in the activities of EU RC is described and summarized. As a case study, the article deals with Belgium's rotating six months presidency in the EUin 2010 when the country, which was going through a severe political crisis with no federal government in place, was represented by the two regions. The special focus of the article is on the strategic EU program "Europe2020" and its implementation by the regions of Belgium. There is an account of the initiatives undertaken by the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region within the framework of this program outlining the interaction of the two regions. The author provides a comprehensive analysis of the involvement of the Flemish Region and the Walloon Region with various EU institutions describing how each party achieves the promotion of its regional interests. Within this context, it is a noteworthy development that the Flemish Region is participating in the international program "Pact 2020" on energy all by its own. The article features quotations by Flemish and Walloon political figures which serve as an illustration of the prevailing attitudes in the Belgian society to the process of

  15. Intraspecific Variability of Rotylenchulus reniformis from Cotton-growing Regions in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Agudelo, Paula; Robbins, Robert T.; Stewart, James McD.; Szalanski, Allen L.

    2005-01-01

    Reniform nematode (Rotylenchulus reniformis) is a major pest of cotton in the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to examine the variation of reniform nematode populations from cotton-growing locations in the United States where it is prevalent. Multivariate analysis of variance and discriminant analysis were used to determine the variability of morphology in males and immature females. Reproduction indices of populations were measured on selected soybean and cotton ge...

  16. A two-stage rule-constrained seedless region growing approach for mandibular body segmentation in MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Dong Xu; Foong, Kelvin Weng Chiong; Ong, Sim Heng

    2013-09-01

    Extraction of the mandible from 3D volumetric images is frequently required for surgical planning and evaluation. Image segmentation from MRI is more complex than CT due to lower bony signal-to-noise. An automated method to extract the human mandible body shape from magnetic resonance (MR) images of the head was developed and tested. Anonymous MR images data sets of the head from 12 subjects were subjected to a two-stage rule-constrained region growing approach to derive the shape of the body of the human mandible. An initial thresholding technique was applied followed by a 3D seedless region growing algorithm to detect a large portion of the trabecular bone (TB) regions of the mandible. This stage is followed with a rule-constrained 2D segmentation of each MR axial slice to merge the remaining portions of the TB regions with lower intensity levels. The two-stage approach was replicated to detect the cortical bone (CB) regions of the mandibular body. The TB and CB regions detected from the preceding steps were merged and subjected to a series of morphological processes for completion of the mandibular body region definition. Comparisons of the accuracy of segmentation between the two-stage approach, conventional region growing method, 3D level set method, and manual segmentation were made with Jaccard index, Dice index, and mean surface distance (MSD). The mean accuracy of the proposed method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of CRG is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The mean accuracy of the 3D level set method is [Formula: see text] for Jaccard index, [Formula: see text] for Dice index, and [Formula: see text] mm for MSD. The proposed method shows improvement in accuracy over CRG and 3D level set. Accurate segmentation of the body of the human mandible from MR images is achieved with the

  17. Experimental observation and combined investigation of high-performance fusion of iron-region isotopes in optimal growing microbiological associations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vysotskii, Vladimir I.; Kornilova, Alla A.; Tashirev, Alexandr B.; Kornilova, Julia

    2006-01-01

    The report represents the results of combined (Moessbauer and mass-spectroscopy) examinations of isotopes transmutation process in growing microbiological associations in the iron-region of atomic mass (50 < A < 60). It was shown that the effectiveness of isotopes transmutation during the process of growth of microbiological associations at optimal conditions is by 10-20 times more than the effectiveness of the same transmutation in one-line' (clean) microbiological cultures. (author)

  18. Inverse modeling and animation of growing single-stemmed trees at interactive rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Rudnick; L. Linsen; E.G. McPherson

    2007-01-01

    For city planning purposes, animations of growing trees of several species can be used to deduce which species may best fit a particular environment. The models used for the animation must conform to real measured data. We present an approach for inverse modeling to fit global growth parameters. The model comprises local production rules, which are iteratively and...

  19. Determinations of adaptation level of wine grape varieties in terms of climatic data in wine growing regions of turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ateş Fadime

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wine grapes are adapted to a wide range of climate; the best production occurs in regions that meet certain specific climatic conditions. Temperatures during the growing season can affect grape quality and viability. Beneficial climatic conditions will improve the wine's quality. In this study it is aimed that to determine suitable wine grape varieties for the cultivation in some areas of Southeastern Anatolia Region, Eastern Anatolia, Central Anatolia Region, Central Black Sea Region, Aegean Region and Marmara Region in Turkey with related to climate requirements. For this reason, long-term climatic data were collected by meteorological stations including, Diyarbakır (Çermik, Çüngüş, Central-Elazığ, Nevşehir (Central and Ürgüp, Ankara (Kalecik Tokat (Central, Erbaa, Niksar, İzmir (Seferihisar, Menderes, Urla ve Denizli (Çal ve Güney, Çanakkale (Bozcaada, Bayramiç, Tekirdağ. In this study heliotermic and hdyrothermic indices were calculated and evaluated for appropriate viticultural practice in this region. It was found that Boğazkere and Öküzgözü in Southeastern Anatolia Region and Eastern Anatolia Region; Kalecik Karası, Dimrit and Narince in Central Anatolia Region and Emir in Central Black Sea Region; Bornova Misketi, Cabernet Sauvignon, Syrah, Alicante Bouschet, Carignane, Kalecik Karası, Merlot, Öküzgözü, Çal Karası, Boğazkere, Sultani Çekirdeksiz in Aegean Region; Karasakız,Karalahana, Vasilaki, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Alicante Bouschet, Semillion, Cinsaut, Yapıncak, Gamay, Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon can be adapted and grown well in terms of climatic conditions in Marmara Region respectively.

  20. INDIA’S GROWING INFLUENCE IN STABILIZING REGIONAL SECURITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-16

    East Policy’ focusing on engagement with Southeast Asia .2 Following the reforms, Indian economy grew rapidly with an...civilizational neighbors in Southeast Asia and East Asia .”19 Thus, LEP and recognition of India’s economic, political, security and cultural potential by ASEAN...point. 21 During the 10th East Asia Summit, Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of South East Asian region and informed that his

  1. Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia. Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS. Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total. Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass. Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas

  2. A Survival Model for Shortleaf Pine Tress Growing in Uneven-Aged Stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas B. Lynch; Lawrence R. Gering; Michael M. Huebschmann; Paul A. Murphy

    1999-01-01

    A survival model for shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) trees growing in uneven-aged stands was developed using data from permanently established plots maintained by an industrial forestry company in western Arkansas. Parameters were fitted to a logistic regression model with a Bernoulli dependent variable in which "0" represented...

  3. "Growing trees backwards": Description of a stand reconstruction model (P-53)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan D. Bakker; Andrew J. Sanchez Meador; Peter Z. Fule; David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    We describe an individual-tree model that uses contemporary measurements to "grow trees backward" and reconstruct past tree diameters and stand structure in ponderosa pine dominated stands of the Southwest. Model inputs are contemporary structural measurements of all snags, logs, stumps, and living trees, and radial growth measurements, if available. Key...

  4. MULCHING MATERIALS OF PLANT ORIGIN AT POTATO GROWING IN ASTRAKHAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. B. Bairambekov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The application of phytogenous mulching materials based on local processed raw materials at potato cultivation in irrigated conditions of the Astrakhan region has allowed optimization of temperature and moisture regime of the soil. It was found that in case of the spring term of planting, the mulching has increased the soil temperature up to 0,6-0,9°C on April-May at a depth of 0,10 m as compared to the control. During heat period, mulching materials have decreased the soil temperature. Antecedent soil water under mulching materials in the phase of tubers formation was on 1,15-1,19 times higher than in the control variant without mulching. The most effective materials for the soils of different grain-size distribution were determined: for the heavy-loamy soil the best mulching material was straw, for the sandy loam soil the more efficient mulching was saw-dust.

  5. Modelling the Hydraulic Behaviour of Growing Media with the Explicit Finite Volume Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carbone

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The increasing imperviousness of urban areas reduces the infiltration and evapotranspiration capacity of urban catchments and results in increased runoff. In the last few decades, several solutions and techniques have been proposed to prevent such impacts by restoring the hydrological cycle. A limiting factor in spreading the use of such systems is the lack of proper modelling tools for design, especially for the infiltration processes in a growing medium. In this research, a physically-based model, employing the explicit Finite Volume Method (FVM, is proposed for modelling infiltration into growing media. The model solves a modified version of the Richards equation using a formulation which takes into account the main characteristics of green infrastructure substrates. The proposed model was verified against the HYDRUS-1D software and the comparison of results confirmed the suitability of the proposed model for correctly describing the hydraulic behaviour of soil substrates.

  6. Resistance and resilience to changing climate of Tuscany and Valpolicella wine grape growing regions in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boselli Maurizio

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide an improved assessment of the practical adaptation options for the viticulture of Tuscany and of Valpolicella and what could be the strength and resilience to climate change of grapevine varieties in these areas. According to the models tested, Italian viticulture is able to adapt better than other countries to global warming, as the placing at various altitudes up in the high hills and mountains sets off the mechanism called resilience.

  7. Evaluation of Red Raspberry Cultivars Used for Breeding and Commercial Growing in the Baltic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lācis Gunārs

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The structure of raspberry cultivars and genetic resources in the Baltic countries have been influenced by the historical political situation in the 20th century and climatic conditions, especially winterhardiness. The genetic resources consist of some old European and American cultivars, but mostly of cultivars and hybrids bred in Russia. Currently, targeted breeding programmes are active only in Estonia and Latvia, which aim to develop winterhardy, disease-resistant cultivars, well adapted to the local climate. Therefore, parent material for hybridisation has been chosen from local advanced hybrids and introduced cultivars suitable to the regional climatic conditions. The aim of the study was to estimate the level of genetic diversity of Rubus germplasm and assess inter-specific and intra-specific relationships using phenotypical characterisation and molecular markers. Forty one Rubus genotypes were evaluated by 41 phenotypical traits and 15 previously described SSR markers. Both characterisation approaches discovered high correspondence with pedigree and a low level of diversity. A limited amount of the diversity of raspberry genetic material has been used in various breeding programmes, despite their broad geographical origin. The obtained results indicate the need for including local wild R. idaeus plant material into breeding programmes.

  8. Uptake of uranium, thorium and radium isotopes by plants growing in dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region (Kazakhstan)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matveyeva, Ilona; Burkitbayev, Mukhambetkali [al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty (Kazakhstan). Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology; Jacimovic, Radojko [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Planinsek, Petra; Smodis, Borut [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2016-04-01

    The activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in dominant species of plants (Xantium strumarium, Phragmites communis, Artemisia nitrosa and Artemisia serotina) growing on the territories contaminated by uranium industry of Kazakhstan (close to dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region) are presented. The obtained data showed the significant variations of activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in above ground parts. The concentrations of most of the investigated radionuclides in the root system are higher than in the aboveground parts; it can be explained by root barrier. It was found that the highest root barrier has Xantium strumarium, especially for uranium isotopes. The concentration ratios of radionuclides were calculated, and as the result it was found that the highest accumulation ability in the investigated region has Artemisia serotina.

  9. Uptake of uranium, thorium and radium isotopes by plants growing in dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region (Kazakhstan)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matveyeva, Ilona; Burkitbayev, Mukhambetkali

    2016-01-01

    The activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in dominant species of plants (Xantium strumarium, Phragmites communis, Artemisia nitrosa and Artemisia serotina) growing on the territories contaminated by uranium industry of Kazakhstan (close to dam impoundment Tasotkel and the Lower Shu region) are presented. The obtained data showed the significant variations of activity concentrations of isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium-226 in above ground parts. The concentrations of most of the investigated radionuclides in the root system are higher than in the aboveground parts; it can be explained by root barrier. It was found that the highest root barrier has Xantium strumarium, especially for uranium isotopes. The concentration ratios of radionuclides were calculated, and as the result it was found that the highest accumulation ability in the investigated region has Artemisia serotina.

  10. Modeling phosphorus capture by plants growing in a multi-species riparian buffer

    Science.gov (United States)

    The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore phosphorus (P) uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126-d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and smooth brome (Bromis inermis L...

  11. INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES FOR SOIL PROCESSING AND EFFICIENCY OF THEIR APPLICATION IN THE GROWING OF GRAIN CULTURES IN CHERKASY REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulanchuk V.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Scientific and technological progress plays an important role in improving the efficiency of the production of grain products. At the same time, it also has a negative impact on the ecology of soils. World experience shows the possibility of suspending and overcoming destructive land processes by introducing innovative soil cultivation technologies in the cultivation of agricultural crops. Purpose. This article aims to substantiate expediency of introduction of innovative resource-saving technologies of soil cultivation at cultivation of grain crops in Cherkasy region. Results. In the article it is proved that the efficiency of grain production in agricultural enterprises of Cherkasy region, which are using minimal (Mini-till and zero (No-till tillage technologies, in comparison with enterprises that use traditional grain growing technology, have indicators, as the price of sale of 1 centner of grain, the profit per 1 centner of grain and the level of profitability, that are much higher. Thus, the price of 1 centner of grain produced by the “LNZ-Agro” (Mini-till in 2013-2015 was higher 573.86 UAH, at the “Shpola-Agro-Industry” (No-till at 390,94 UAH, profit per 1 centner grain is higher than 477.23 and 249.14 UAH; the level of profitability of grain – higher than 201.5 and 71.8 percentage points. A similar situation is observed in the production of the main grain crops (wheat and maize for grain. With the application of the newest soil cultivation technologies, there is a decrease in the calculation of fuel consumption and depreciation deductions per hectare. The expediency of using resource-saving technologies for soil tillage during the cultivation of grain products in agricultural enterprises of the Cherkasy region also indicates by such indicator as the amount of profit per 1 hectare of crops. So, LNZ-Agro (Mini-till for one hectare of crops received a profit of 43947 UAH, “Shpola-Agro-Industry” (No-till –16491

  12. Comparison of Insecticide Susceptibilities of Empoasca vitis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) from Three Main Tea-Growing Regions in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Qi; Yu, Hua-Yang; Niu, Chun-Dong; Yao, Rong; Wu, Shun-Fan; Chen, Zhuo; Gao, Cong-Fen

    2015-06-01

    Empoasca vitis (Göthe) is an important insect pest in tea-growing areas of China, and chemical control is the main tactic for the management of this pest. Due to the pressure of increasing insecticide resistance and more stringent food safety regulations, development of sound IPM strategies for E. vitis is an urgent matter. This study comparatively evaluated four field populations of E. vitis from three different tea-growing regions in China for their susceptibilities to eight insecticides using a simple leaf-dip methodology. E. vitis was found to be most sensitive to indoxacarb (LC505 mg/liter) and sophocarpidine (LC50>95 mg/liter, a botanical pesticide) regardless of populations. Population (geographical) variations were higher for indoxacarb and imidacloprid than other compounds. Judging by the 95% fiducial limits of LC50 values, all populations had similar susceptibilities to chlorfenapyr, bifenthrin, and acetamiprid or imidacloprid. Correlation analysis suggested that chlorfenapyr and indoxacarb or isoprocarb may have a high risk of cross resistance. Considering potency (LC50) and maximum residual levels, chlorfenapyr and bifenthrin are good insecticide options followed by acetamiprid and indoxacarb. These results provide valuable information to intelligently select insecticides for IPM programs that are efficacious against E. vitis while also managing insecticide resistance and maximum residual levels for tea production in China. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Heavy metal accumulation in leaves and beans of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) in major cacao growing regions in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arévalo-Gardini, Enrique; Arévalo-Hernández, Cesar O; Baligar, Virupax C; He, Zhenli L

    2017-12-15

    Peru is one of the leading exporters of organic cacao beans in the world. However, the accumulation of heavy metals in cacao beans represents a problem for cocoa bean export and chocolate quality. The aim of this study was to investigate the distribution and accumulation of heavy metals in cacao leaves and cocoa beans in three major cacao growing regions of Peru. The study was conducted in cacao plantations of 10 to 15years old in three regions of Peru: North (Regions of Tumbes, Piura, Cajamarca, and Amazonas); Center (Regions of Huánuco and San Martin) and South (Junin and Cuzco). Samples of leaf and cacao beans were collected from 70 cacao plantations, and the nature of cacao clone or genotype sampled was recorded. The concentrations of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in leaves and beans were determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. Overall, concentrations of heavy metals were below the critical limits; however, the presence of high levels of Cd in cacao grown in Amazonas, Piura, and Tumbes regions is of primary concern. Plantations of cacao with different cacao clones show differences in Cd accumulation both in leaves and cocoa beans. Therefore, it is promising to screen low Cd accumulator cacao genotypes for safe production of cacao on lightly to moderately Cd contaminated soils. Also, synergism between Zn and Cd present both in plant and soil suggests that Zn has a direct effect on Cd accumulation in cacao. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Automated grain extraction and classification by combining improved region growing segmentation and shape descriptors in electromagnetic mill classification system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budzan, Sebastian

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, the automatic method of grain detection and classification has been presented. As input, it uses a single digital image obtained from milling process of the copper ore with an high-quality digital camera. The grinding process is an extremely energy and cost consuming process, thus granularity evaluation process should be performed with high efficiency and time consumption. The method proposed in this paper is based on the three-stage image processing. First, using Seeded Region Growing (SRG) segmentation with proposed adaptive thresholding based on the calculation of Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) all grains are detected. In the next step results of the detection are improved using information about the shape of the detected grains using distance map. Finally, each grain in the sample is classified into one of the predefined granularity class. The quality of the proposed method has been obtained by using nominal granularity samples, also with a comparison to the other methods.

  15. Grow, Baby, Grow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maybe you quit smoking during your pregnancy. Or maybe you struggled and weren’t able to stay quit. Now that your baby is here, trying to stay away from smoking is still important. That’s because the chemicals in smoke can make it harder for your baby to grow like he or she should.

  16. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  17. Modeling mechanical interactions in growing populations of rod-shaped bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkle, James J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Bennett, Matthew R.; Josić, Krešimir; Ott, William

    2017-10-01

    Advances in synthetic biology allow us to engineer bacterial collectives with pre-specified characteristics. However, the behavior of these collectives is difficult to understand, as cellular growth and division as well as extra-cellular fluid flow lead to complex, changing arrangements of cells within the population. To rationally engineer and control the behavior of cell collectives we need theoretical and computational tools to understand their emergent spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we present an agent-based model that allows growing cells to detect and respond to mechanical interactions. Crucially, our model couples the dynamics of cell growth to the cell’s environment: Mechanical constraints can affect cellular growth rate and a cell may alter its behavior in response to these constraints. This coupling links the mechanical forces that influence cell growth and emergent behaviors in cell assemblies. We illustrate our approach by showing how mechanical interactions can impact the dynamics of bacterial collectives growing in microfluidic traps.

  18. Embedded Fibre Bragg Grating Sensor Response Model: Crack Growing Detection in Fibre Reinforced Plastic Materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira, Gilmar Ferreira; Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard; McGugan, Malcolm

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a novel method to simulate the sensor output response of a Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensor when embedded in a host material (Composite material or adhesive), during a crack growing/damage event. A finite element model of the crack growth mechanisms was developed, and differ...... the applicability of this technique to more complicated structures, and to be used as a structural health monitoring design tool....

  19. Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers, leaves, and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwa Awad

    2016-09-01

    Conclusions: Essential oils from flowers, leaves and stems of R. epapposum growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia are considered as a rich source of monoterpenes which have biological activities.

  20. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

    2009-05-01

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

  1. Adaptive region-growing with maximum curvature strategy for tumor segmentation in 18F-FDG PET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Shan; Li, Laquan; Choi, Wookjin; Kang, Min Kyu; D'Souza, Warren D.; Lu, Wei

    2017-07-01

    Accurate tumor segmentation in PET is crucial in many oncology applications. We developed an adaptive region-growing (ARG) algorithm with a maximum curvature strategy (ARG_MC) for tumor segmentation in PET. The ARG_MC repeatedly applied a confidence connected region-growing algorithm with increasing relaxing factor f. The optimal relaxing factor (ORF) was then determined at the transition point on the f-volume curve, where the volume just grew from the tumor into the surrounding normal tissues. The ARG_MC along with five widely used algorithms were tested on a phantom with 6 spheres at different signal to background ratios and on two clinic datasets including 20 patients with esophageal cancer and 11 patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The ARG_MC did not require any phantom calibration or any a priori knowledge of the tumor or PET scanner. The identified ORF varied with tumor types (mean ORF  =  9.61, 3.78 and 2.55 respectively for the phantom, esophageal cancer, and NHL datasets), and varied from one tumor to another. For the phantom, the ARG_MC ranked the second in segmentation accuracy with an average Dice similarity index (DSI) of 0.86, only slightly worse than Daisne’s adaptive thresholding method (DSI  =  0.87), which required phantom calibration. For both the esophageal cancer dataset and the NHL dataset, the ARG_MC had the highest accuracy with an average DSI of 0.87 and 0.84, respectively. The ARG_MC was robust to parameter settings and region of interest selection, and it did not depend on scanners, imaging protocols, or tumor types. Furthermore, the ARG_MC made no assumption about the tumor size or tumor uptake distribution, making it suitable for segmenting tumors with heterogeneous FDG uptake. In conclusion, the ARG_MC was accurate, robust and easy to use, it provides a highly potential tool for PET tumor segmentation in clinic.

  2. Bayesian simultaneous equation models for the analysis of energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Kebreab, E

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT SUMMARY The objective of the current study was to develop Bayesian simultaneous equation models for modelling energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs. A key feature of the Bayesian approach is that parameters are assigned prior distributions, which may reflect the current state...... of nature. In the models, rates of metabolizable energy (ME) intake, protein deposition (PD) and lipid deposition (LD) were treated as dependent variables accounting for residuals being correlated. Two complementary equation systems were used to model ME intake (MEI), PD and LD. Informative priors were...... developed, reflecting current knowledge about metabolic scaling and partial efficiencies of PD and LD rates, whereas flat non-informative priors were used for the reminder of the parameters. The experimental data analysed originate from a balance and respiration trial with 17 cross-bred pigs of three...

  3. Model for analyzing growth kinetics of a slowly growing Mycobacterium sp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrecht, R.S.; Carriere, J.F.; Collins, M.T.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes a simple method for quantifying viable mycobacteria and for determining generation time. We used statistical models and computer analysis of growth curves generated for the slowly growing mycobacterium Mycobacterium paratuberculosis under controlled conditions to derive a mathematical formula relating the dependent variable, growth, to the independent variables, log10 number of organisms in the inoculum (inoculum size) and incubation time. Growth was measured by a radiometric method which detects 14 CO 2 release during metabolism of a 14 C-labeled substrate. The radiometric method allowed for early detection of growth and detected as few as three viable bacteria. The coefficient of variation between culture vials inoculated with the same number of M. paratuberculosis was 0.083. Radiometric measurements were highly correlated to spectrophotometric and plate count methods for measuring growth (r = 0.962 and 0.992, respectively). The proportion of the total variability explained by the model in a goodness of fit test was 0.9994. Application of the model to broth cultures provided accurate estimates of the number of M. paratuberculosis (standard error = 0.21, log10 scale) and the growth rate (coefficient of variation, 0.03). Generation time was observed to be dependent upon the number of organisms in the inoculum. The model accurately described all phases of growth of M. paratuberculosis and can likely be applied to other slowly growing microorganisms

  4. Ecohydrology in Mediterranean areas: a numerical model to describe growing seasons out of phase with precipitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pumo

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic description of soil moisture dynamics is a relatively new topic in hydrology. The most common ecohydrological models start from a stochastic differential equation describing the soil water balance, where the unknown quantity, the soil moisture, depends both on spaces and time. Most of the solutions existing in literature are obtained in a probabilistic framework and under steady-state condition; even if this last condition allows the analytical handling of the problem, it has considerably simplified the same problem by subtracting generalities from it.

    The steady-state hypothesis, appears perfectly applicable in arid and semiarid climatic areas like those of African's or middle American's savannas, but it seems to be no more valid in areas with Mediterranean climate, where, notoriously, the wet season foregoes the growing season, recharging water into the soil. This moisture stored at the beginning of the growing season (known as soil moisture initial condition has a great importance, especially for deep-rooted vegetation, by enabling survival in absence of rainfalls during the growing season and, however, keeping the water stress low during the first period of the same season.

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the soil moisture dynamics using a simple non-steady numerical ecohydrological model. The numerical model here proposed is able to reproduce soil moisture probability density function, obtained analytically in previous studies for different climates and soils in steady-state conditions; consequently it can be used to compute both the soil moisture time-profile and the vegetation static water stress time-profile in non-steady conditions.

    Here the differences between the steady-analytical and the non-steady numerical probability density functions are analyzed, showing how the proposed numerical model is able to capture the effects of winter recharge on the soil moisture. The dynamic

  5. A Comparison of Vacancy Dynamics between Growing and Shrinking Cities Using the Land Transformation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaekyung Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Every city seeks opportunities to spur economic developments and, depending on its type, vacant land can be seen as a potential threat or an opportunity to achieve these developments. Although vacant land exists in all cities, the causes and effects of changes in vacant land can differ. Growing cities may have more vacant land than shrinking cities because of large scale annexation. Meanwhile, depopulation and economic downturn may increase the total amount of vacant and abandoned properties. Despite various causes of increase and decrease of vacant land, the ability to predict future vacancy patterns—where future vacant parcels may occur—could be a critical test to set up appropriate development strategies and land use policies, especially in shrinking cities, to manage urban decline and regeneration efforts more wisely. This study compares current and future vacancy patterns of a growing city (Fort Worth, TX, USA and a shrinking city (Chicago, IL, USA, by employing the Land Transformation Model (LTM to predict for future vacant lands. This research predicts and produces possible vacancy pattern scenarios by 2020 and deciphers the ranking of determinants of vacant land in each city type. The outcomes of this study indicate that the LTM can be useful for simulating vacancy patterns and the causes of vacancy vary in both growing and shrinking cities. Socio-economic factors such as unemployment rate and household income are powerful determinants of vacancy in a growing city, while physical and transportation-related conditions such as proximity to highways, vehicle accessibility, or building conditions show a stronger influence on increasing vacant land in a shrinking city.

  6. Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

  7. A modified Seeded Region Growing algorithm for vessel segmentation in breast MRI images for investigating the nature of potential lesions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotsos, D.; Vassiou, K.; Kostopoulos, S.; Lavdas, El; Kalatzis, I.; Asvestas, P.; Arvanitis, D. L.; Fezoulidis, I. V.; Cavouras, D.

    2014-03-01

    The role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) as an alternative protocol for screening of breast cancer has been intensively investigated during the past decade. Preliminary research results have indicated that gadolinium-agent administrative MRI scans may reveal the nature of breast lesions by analyzing the contrast-agent's uptake time. In this study, we attempt to deduce the same conclusion, however, from a different perspective by investigating, using image processing, the vascular network of the breast at two different time intervals following the administration of gadolinium. Twenty cases obtained from a 3.0-T MRI system (SIGNA HDx; GE Healthcare) were included in the study. A new modification of the Seeded Region Growing (SRG) algorithm was used to segment vessels from surrounding background. Delineated vessels were investigated by means of their topology, morphology and texture. Results have shown that it is possible to estimate the nature of the lesions with approximately 94.4% accuracy, thus, it may be claimed that the breast vascular network does encodes useful, patterned, information, which can be used for characterizing breast lesions.

  8. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  9. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  10. Interconnected growing self-organizing maps for auditory and semantic acquisition modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengxue eCao

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on the incremental nature of knowledge acquisition, in this study we propose a growing self-organizing neural network approach for modeling the acquisition of auditory and semantic categories. We introduce an Interconnected Growing Self-Organizing Maps (I-GSOM algorithm, which takes associations between auditory information and semantic information into consideration, in this paper. Direct phonetic--semantic association is simulated in order to model the language acquisition in early phases, such as the babbling and imitation stages, in which no phonological representations exist. Based on the I-GSOM algorithm, we conducted experiments using paired acoustic and semantic training data. We use a cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training procedure to model the teaching and learning process between children and their communication partners; a reinforcing-by-link training procedure and a link-forgetting procedure are introduced to model the acquisition of associative relations between auditory and semantic information. Experimental results indicate that (1 I-GSOM has good ability to learn auditory and semantic categories presented within the training data; (2 clear auditory and semantic boundaries can be found in the network representation; (3 cyclical reinforcing and reviewing training leads to a detailed categorization as well as to a detailed clustering, while keeping the clusters that have already been learned and the network structure that has already been developed stable; and (4 reinforcing-by-link training leads to well-perceived auditory--semantic associations. Our I-GSOM model suggests that it is important to associate auditory information with semantic information during language acquisition. Despite its high level of abstraction, our I-GSOM approach can be interpreted as a biologically-inspired neurocomputational model.

  11. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution. While considerable...

  12. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 6-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding Guam at approximately 2-km resolution. While considerable effort has been...

  13. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution. While considerable...

  14. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) at approximately...

  15. Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feser, F.

    2005-07-01

    In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

  16. Models for Sustainable Regional Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

  17. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  18. On the use of prior information in modelling metabolic utilization of energy in growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Fernández, José Adalberto

    2011-01-01

    Construction of models that provide a realistic representation of metabolic utilization of energy in growing animals tend to be over-parameterized because data generated from individual metabolic studies are often sparse. In the Bayesian framework prior information can enter the data analysis......, PD and LD) made on a given pig at a given time followed a multivariate normal distribution. Two different equation systems were adopted from Strathe et al. (2010), generating the expected values in the multivariate normal distribution. Non-informative prior distributions were assigned for all model......, kp and kf, respectively. Utilizing both sets of priors showed that the maintenance component was sensitive to the statement of prior belief and, hence, that the estimate of 0.91 MJkg0.60d1 (95% CI: 0.78; 1.09) should be interpreted with caution. It was shown that boars were superior in depositing...

  19. Structural phase transition in a growing network model with tunable member intimacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kibum; Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Beom Jun

    2017-05-01

    Users of online communities become more intimate in time by writing posts and exchanging comments to each other. Although a certain level of intimacy among a group of members can be beneficial for the activity of the whole community, too strong intimacy among existing members can make newcomers feel alienated, driving them to leave the community. In this letter, we introduce a growing network model in which we systematically study the effect of member intimacy on the formation of connected component of the network. We introduce a parameter called clinginess and control how the member intimacy affects the communication activity. We observe that cumulative number of users who leave the community exhibits a transition-like behavior, similarly to the discontinuous transition in statistical mechanics models. Implication of our result in constructing a sustainable online community is also discussed.

  20. Abundance and Diversity of Wild Bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) Found in Lowbush Blueberry Growing Regions of Downeast Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushmann, Sara L; Drummond, Francis A

    2015-08-01

    Insect-mediated pollination is critical for lowbush blueberry (Ericaceae: Vaccinium angustifolium Aiton) fruit development. Past research shows a persistent presence of wild bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) providing pollination services even when commercial pollinators are present. We undertook the study to 1) provide a description of bee communities found in lowbush blueberry-growing regions, 2) identify field characteristics or farm management practices that influence those communities, 3) identify key wild bee pollinators that provide pollination services for the blueberry crop, and 4) identify non-crop plants found within the cropping system that provide forage for wild bees. During a 4-year period, we collected solitary and eusocial bees in over 40 fields during and after blueberry bloom, determining a management description for each field. We collected 4,474 solitary bees representing 124 species and 1,315 summer bumble bees representing nine species. No bumble bee species were previously unknown in Maine, yet we document seven solitary bee species new for the state. These include species of the genera Nomada, Lasioglossum, Calliopsis, and Augochloropsis. No field characteristic or farm management practice related to bee community structure, except bumble bee species richness was higher in certified organic fields. Pollen analysis determined scopal loads of 67-99% ericaceous pollen carried by five species of Andrena. Our data suggest two native ericaceous plants, Kalmia angustifolia L. and Gaylussacia baccata (Wangenheim), provide important alternative floral resources. We conclude that Maine blueberry croplands are populated with a species-rich bee community that fluctuates in time and space. We suggest growers develop and maintain wild bee forage and nest sites. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Selección de Píxel Semilla mediante Wavelets para Crecimiento por Regiones Difuso (Selection of Seed Pixel Through Wavelets for Fuzzy Region Growing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damián Valdés Santiago

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN El análisis de masas y tumores en mamografía es un problema difícil porque los signos del cáncer pueden ser mínimos o estar superpuestos en el tejido. Las técnicas de procesamiento de imágenes pueden mejorar el diagnóstico reduciendo los costos. La detección de masas es un reto debido al bajo contraste y la pobre definición de los bordes. Una solución al problema es representar una masa mediante conjuntos difusos. En este trabajo se estudia la propuesta de Guliato et al. que plantean dos métodos de segmentación difusos. El primero determina el borde de una masa por crecimiento por regiones clásico, luego de un preprocesamiento difuso de la región de interés. El segundo es un método de crecimiento por regiones difuso. Estos métodos necesitan un píxel semilla y un umbral. En este trabajo se propone una selección automática del píxel semilla mediante la selección de píxeles muy correlacionados según la transformada wavelet de la imagen. Como medida de evaluación en la segmentación, se emplea la medida de ambigüedad definida por los autores citados. Con la selección de semilla propuesta se obtienen mejores resultados en la segmentación, respecto al uso de una semilla aleatoria. ABSTRACT The analysis of masses and tumors in mammography is difficult because developing signs of cancer may be minimal or masked by superimposed tissues. Image analysis techniques have the potential to improve the diagnostic accuracy of mammography, and reduce health-care costs. Detection of breast masses is a challenging problem due to low contrast and poor definition of their boundaries. An alternative to address this problem is to represent tumor or mass regions by fuzzy sets. In this paper, two methods of fuzzy segmentation proposed by Guliato et al. are studied. The first method determines the boundary of a mass by classic region growing after a fuzzy preprocessing step. The second method is a fuzzy region-growing method. This

  2. Modelling and control of growing slugs in horizontal multiphase pipe flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steinar M. Elgsæter

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the use of active control to restrict the length of growing slugs in horizontal pipelines is investigated. Specifically, the paper attempts to determine if such control can be attained with realistic measurements and actuators. Simulations in OLGA2000 show that a feedback controller can use measurements or estimates of slug length to control the growth of a slug in a horizontal pipeline by partially closing inlet or outlet chokes. A control-volume approach is used to develop a low-order model of inlet choke-slug growth dynamics based on mass- and impulse balances. The resulting model is a system of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations, which is suitable for observer-design. The tuned model is found to be in good agreement with experiments and OLGA2000-simulations. Linearizations of the model are found to be observable around realistic trajectories when rates and pressures at the inlet and outlet are measured. An extended Luenberger-observer is shown to give good estimates of slug length and -position in simulations even under model uncertainty.

  3. A Robust Productivity Model for Grapple Yarding in Fast-Growing Tree Plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riaan Engelbrecht

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available New techniques have recently appeared that can extend the advantages of grapple yarding to fast-growing plantations. The most promising technique consists of an excavator-base un-guyed yarder equipped with new radio-controlled grapple carriages, fed by another excavator stationed on the cut-over. This system is very productive, avoids in-stand traffic, and removes operators from positions of high risk. This paper presents the results of a long-term study conducted on 12 different teams equipped with the new technology, operating in the fast-growing black wattle (Acacia mangium Willd plantations of Sarawak, Malaysia. Data were collected continuously for almost 8 months and represented 555 shifts, or over 55,000 cycles—each recorded individually. Production, utilization, and machine availability were estimated, respectively at: 63 m3 per productive machine hour (excluding all delays, 63% and 93%. Regression analysis of experimental data yielded a strong productivity forecast model that was highly significant, accounted for 50% of the total variability in the dataset and was validated with a non-significant error estimated at less than 1%. The figures reported in this study are especially robust, because they were obtained from a long-term study that covered multiple teams and accumulated an exceptionally large number of observations.

  4. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  5. Volumetric analysis of pelvic hematomas after blunt trauma using semi-automated seeded region growing segmentation: a method validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreizin, David; Bodanapally, Uttam K; Neerchal, Nagaraj; Tirada, Nikki; Patlas, Michael; Herskovits, Edward

    2016-11-01

    Manually segmented traumatic pelvic hematoma volumes are strongly predictive of active bleeding at conventional angiography, but the method is time intensive, limiting its clinical applicability. We compared volumetric analysis using semi-automated region growing segmentation to manual segmentation and diameter-based size estimates in patients with pelvic hematomas after blunt pelvic trauma. A 14-patient cohort was selected in an anonymous randomized fashion from a dataset of patients with pelvic binders at MDCT, collected retrospectively as part of a HIPAA-compliant IRB-approved study from January 2008 to December 2013. To evaluate intermethod differences, one reader (R1) performed three volume measurements using the manual technique and three volume measurements using the semi-automated technique. To evaluate interobserver differences for semi-automated segmentation, a second reader (R2) performed three semi-automated measurements. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare differences in mean volumes. Time effort was also compared. Correlation between the two methods as well as two shorthand appraisals (greatest diameter, and the ABC/2 method for estimating ellipsoid volumes) was assessed with Spearman's rho (r). Intraobserver variability was lower for semi-automated compared to manual segmentation, with standard deviations ranging between ±5-32 mL and ±17-84 mL, respectively (p = 0.0003). There was no significant difference in mean volumes between the two readers' semi-automated measurements (p = 0.83); however, means were lower for the semi-automated compared with the manual technique (manual: mean and SD 309.6 ± 139 mL; R1 semi-auto: 229.6 ± 88.2 mL, p = 0.004; R2 semi-auto: 243.79 ± 99.7 mL, p = 0.021). Despite differences in means, the correlation between the two methods was very strong and highly significant (r = 0.91, p hematoma volumes correlate strongly with manually segmented volumes. Since semi-automated segmentation

  6. Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

    2017-12-01

    Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

  7. Theoretical models for the regulation of DNA replication in fast-growing bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutziger, Martin; Schmidt, Mischa; Lenz, Peter

    2012-09-01

    Growing in always changing environments, Escherichia coli cells are challenged by the task to coordinate growth and division. In particular, adaption of their growth program to the surrounding medium has to guarantee that the daughter cells obtain fully replicated chromosomes. Replication is therefore to be initiated at the right time, which is particularly challenging in media that support fast growth. Here, the mother cell initiates replication not only for the daughter but also for the granddaughter cells. This is possible only if replication occurs from several replication forks that all need to be correctly initiated. Despite considerable efforts during the last 40 years, regulation of this process is still unknown. Part of the difficulty arises from the fact that many details of the relevant molecular processes are not known. Here, we develop a novel theoretical strategy for dealing with this general problem: instead of analyzing a single model, we introduce a wide variety of 128 different models that make different assumptions about the unknown processes. By comparing the predictions of these models we are able to identify the key quantities that allow the experimental discrimination of the different models. Analysis of these quantities yields that out of the 128 models 94 are not consistent with available experimental data. From the remaining 34 models we are able to conclude that mass growth and DNA replication need either to be truly coupled, by coupling DNA replication initiation to the event of cell division, or to the amount of accumulated mass. Finally, we make suggestions for experiments to further reduce the number of possible regulation scenarios.

  8. Modeling Phosphorus Capture by Plants Growing in a Multispecies Riparian Buffer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Kelly

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The NST 3.0 mechanistic nutrient uptake model was used to explore P uptake to a depth of 120 cm over a 126 d growing season in simulated buffer communities composed of mixtures of cottonwood (Populus deltoids Bartr., switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L., and smooth brome (Bromus inermis Leyss. Model estimates of P uptake from pure stands of smooth brome and cottonwood were 18.9 and 24.5 kg ha−1, respectively. Uptake estimates for mixed stands of trees and grasses were intermediate to pure stands. A single factor sensitivity analysis of parameters used to calculate P uptake for each cover type indicated that Imax, k, ro, and Lo were consistently the most responsive to changes ranging from −50% to +100%. Model exploration of P uptake as a function of soil depth interval indicated that uptake was highest in the 0–30 cm intervals, with values ranging from 85% of total for cottonwood to 56% for switchgrass.

  9. Growing skin: A computational model for skin expansion in reconstructive surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Joseph Ploch, Christopher; Wong, Jonathan; Gosain, Arun K.; Kuhl, Ellen

    2011-10-01

    The goal of this manuscript is to establish a novel computational model for stretch-induced skin growth during tissue expansion. Tissue expansion is a common surgical procedure to grow extra skin for reconstructing birth defects, burn injuries, or cancerous breasts. To model skin growth within the framework of nonlinear continuum mechanics, we adopt the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into an elastic and a growth part. Within this concept, we characterize growth as an irreversible, stretch-driven, transversely isotropic process parameterized in terms of a single scalar-valued growth multiplier, the in-plane area growth. To discretize its evolution in time, we apply an unconditionally stable, implicit Euler backward scheme. To discretize it in space, we utilize the finite element method. For maximum algorithmic efficiency and optimal convergence, we suggest an inner Newton iteration to locally update the growth multiplier at each integration point. This iteration is embedded within an outer Newton iteration to globally update the deformation at each finite element node. To demonstrate the characteristic features of skin growth, we simulate the process of gradual tissue expander inflation. To visualize growth-induced residual stresses, we simulate a subsequent tissue expander deflation. In particular, we compare the spatio-temporal evolution of area growth, elastic strains, and residual stresses for four commonly available tissue expander geometries. We believe that predictive computational modeling can open new avenues in reconstructive surgery to rationalize and standardize clinical process parameters such as expander geometry, expander size, expander placement, and inflation timing.

  10. European scale modeling of sulfur, oxidized nitrogen and photochemical oxidants. Model development and evaluation for the 1994 growing season

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden); Pleijel, K. [Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Goeteborg (Sweden)

    1998-09-01

    A chemical mechanism, including the relevant reactions leading to the production of ozone and other photochemical oxidants, has been implemented in the MATCH regional tracer transport/chemistry/deposition model. The aim has been to develop a model platform that can be used as a basis for a range of regional scale studies involving atmospheric chemistry, including assessment of the importance of different sources of pollutants to the levels of photochemical oxidants and air pollutant forecasting. Meteorological input data to the model were taken from archived output from the operational version of HIRLAM at SMHI. Evaluation of model calculations over Europe for a six month period in 1994 for a range of chemical components show good results considering known sources of error and uncertainties in input data and model formulation. With limited further work the system is sufficiently good to be applied for scenario studies and for regional scale air pollutant forecasts 42 refs, 24 figs, 17 tabs

  11. Modeling the cost and benefit of proteome regulation in a growing bacterial cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Pooja; Pratim Pandey, Parth; Jain, Sanjay

    2018-07-01

    Escherichia coli cells differentially regulate the production of metabolic and ribosomal proteins in order to stay close to an optimal growth rate in different environments, and exhibit the bacterial growth laws as a consequence. We present a simple mathematical model of a growing-dividing cell in which an internal dynamical mechanism regulates the allocation of proteomic resources between different protein sectors. The model allows an endogenous determination of the growth rate of the cell as a function of cellular and environmental parameters, and reproduces the bacterial growth laws. We use the model and its variants to study the balance between the cost and benefit of regulation. A cost is incurred because cellular resources are diverted to produce the regulatory apparatus. We show that there is a window of environments or a ‘niche’ in which the unregulated cell has a higher fitness than the regulated cell. Outside this niche there is a large space of constant and time varying environments in which regulation is an advantage. A knowledge of the ‘niche boundaries’ allows one to gain an intuitive understanding of the class of environments in which regulation is an advantage for the organism and which would therefore favour the evolution of regulation. The model allows us to determine the ‘niche boundaries’ as a function of cellular parameters such as the size of the burden of the regulatory apparatus. This class of models may be useful in elucidating various tradeoffs in cells and in making in-silico predictions relevant for synthetic biology.

  12. Radioisotope and mathematical modeling in the assessment of supplementation of Phytase in diets for growing pigs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mota, L.C.; Moreira, J.A.; Oliveira, R.L.R.; Vitti, D.M.S.S.; Patino, R.M.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of including increasing levels of phytase enzyme in pig diets for growing pigs, using the mathematical model. Data from 20 crossbred male piglets, castrated and weighing 26.80 kg on average was used. The animals were housed in individual metabolic cages to collect feces and urine in a 17 day period. A randomized block experimental design containing five treatments and four repetitions was used. The experimental diet provided to piglets contained corn and soybean and was supplemented with five increasing levels of phytase enzyme (0, 250, 500, 750 and 1000 UF/kg), corresponding to 0.00 %, 0.01 %, 0.02 %, 0.03 % and 0.04 % respectively. The variables evaluated were: intake, excretion, output flow of P in the digestive tract, bloodstream, bones and soft tissues. The phytase enzyme did not affect the P intake (P>0.05 (F 10 ), the P excreted in urine (F 02 ) and the output flow of P in the bones (F 32 e F 23 ) and soft tissue (F 42 e F 24 ), however, there was a reduction in P excreted in feces (F 01 ) of 8.92 %, 26.76 %, 22.53 % and 28.64 % to the levels 0, 250, 500, 750 e 1000UF/kg, respectively and showed a positive linear effect (P 12 ). Corn and soybean meal based diets can be used with 50% of P by dicalcium phosphate, adding 250UF/kg diet for growing pigs, and may cause a reduction of 27 % of P excretion in feces. (author)

  13. Simple mass transport model for metal uptake by marine macroalgae growing at different rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    Although algae growing at different rates may exhibit different concentrations of a given metal, such differences in algal chemistry may or may not reflect actual effects of environmental growth factors on the kinetics of metal uptake. Published data on uptake of rubidium, cadmium, and manganese by the green seaweed Ulva fasciata Delile grown at different rates in open system sea water was interpreted using the model. Differences in exposure time to sea water of relatively old and relatively young thalli were responsible for significant decreases in algal rubidium and cadmium concentrations with increases in specific growth rate. The biomass-specific growth rates of uptake of these two metals did not vary with growth rate. Both algal concentrations and specific rates of uptake of manganese increase significantly with increasing growth rate, thus indicating a distinct link between the kinetics of manganese uptake and metabolic rate. Under some circumstances, seaweed bioassay coupled with an interpretive model may provide the only reasonable approach to the study of chemical uptake-growth phenomena. In practice, if the residence time of sea water in culture chambers is sufficiently low to preclude pseudo-closed system artifacts, differences in trace metal concentrations between input and output sea water may be difficult to detect. In the field and in situ experiments based on time-series monitoring of changes in the water chemistry would be technically difficult or perhaps impossible to perform. 13 references, 1 figure.

  14. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  15. Models of Regional Modernization of the Donbass Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Viktorovich Pavlov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodical approach to the assessment of a level of development of post-industrial and neoindustrial models of economic modernization in regional aspect on the basis of various indicators. The proposed approach is approved with use of the statistical materials characterizing the state of economy in the regions of Donbass. The strategy of development of Donbass areas and their industrial cities would have to be based (we mean the situation if there were no military operations on this territory on the basis of the model of neoindustrialization assuming development of the sphere of the hi-tech industry, automation and a computerization of productive forces, replacement of physical work by intellectual labor that is radically capable to change nature of work and structure of labor balance of this macro-region. Branches and sectors of a socio-economic complex of the Donbass region using achievements of fundamental and applied science, engineering and design thought for increase in a share of automation, a computerization and mechanization of workplaces, physical and brainwork prior to the beginning of a political conflict in Ukraine have the potential of development. The authors also pay attention to need of studying the agglomerative effect from interaction of the cities and areas of the Donbass euroregion. It is connected, first of all, with development of vertical and horizontal mechanisms of active use of potential of so-called “cities-kernels”, capable to make the catalyzing impact on production, social infrastructure, creation and development of new perspective branches in the cities-satellites.

  16. AUTOMATIC LUNG NODULE SEGMENTATION USING AUTOSEED REGION GROWING WITH MORPHOLOGICAL MASKING (ARGMM AND FEATURE EX-TRACTION THROUGH COMPLETE LOCAL BINARY PATTERN AND MICROSCOPIC INFORMATION PATTERN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Senthil Kumar

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available An efficient Autoseed Region Growing with Morphological Masking(ARGMM is imple-mented in this paper on the Lung CT Slice to segment the 'Lung Nodules',which may be the potential indicator for the Lung Cancer. The segmentation of lung nodules car-ried out in this paper through Multi-Thresholding, ARGMM and Level Set Evolution. ARGMM takes twice the time compared to Level Set, but still the number of suspected segmented nodules are doubled, which make sure that no potential cancerous nodules go unnoticed at the earlier stages of diagnosis. It is very important not to panic the patient by finding the presence of nodules from Lung CT scan. Only 40 percent of nod-ules can be cancerous. Hence, in this paper an efficient Shape and Texture analysis is computed to quantitatively describe the segmented lung nodules. The Frequency spectrum of the lung nodules is developed and its frequency domain features are com-puted. The Complete Local binary pattern of lung nodules is computed in this paper by constructing the combine histogram of Sign and Magnitude Local Binary Patterns. Lo-cal Configuration Pattern is also determined in this work for lung nodules to numeri-cally model the microscopic information of nodules pattern.

  17. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  18. Relative Prevalence of Grapevine Leafroll-Associated Virus Species in Wine Grape-Growing Regions of California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhineet M Sharma

    Full Text Available Some diseases manifest as one characteristic set of symptoms to the host, but can be caused by multiple pathogens. Control treatments based on plant symptoms can make it difficult to effectively manage such diseases, as the biology of the underlying pathogens can vary. Grapevine leafroll disease affects grapes worldwide, and is associated with several viral species in the family Closteroviridae. Whereas some of the viruses associated with this disease are transmitted by insect vectors, others are only graft-transmissible. In three regions of California, we surveyed vineyards containing diseased vines and screened symptomatic plants for all known viral species associated with grapevine leafroll disease. Relative incidence of each virus species differed among the three regions regions, particularly in relation to species with known vectors compared with those only known to be graft-transmitted. In one region, the pathogen population was dominated by species not known to have an insect vector. In contrast, populations in the other surveyed regions were dominated by virus species that are vector-transmissible. Our survey did not detect viruses associated with grapevine leafroll disease at some sites with characteristic disease symptoms. This could be explained either by undescribed genetic diversity among these viruses that prevented detection with available molecular tools at the time the survey was performed, or a misidentification of visual symptoms that may have had other underlying causes. Based on the differences in relative prevalence of each virus species among regions and among vineyards within regions, we expect that region and site-specific management strategies are needed for effective disease control.

  19. Suitability analysis for rice growing sites using a multicriteria evaluation and GIS approach in great Mwea region, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kihoro, Joseph; Bosco, Njoroge J; Murage, Hunja

    2013-12-01

    Land suitability analysis is a prerequisite to achieving optimum utilization of the available land resources. Lack of knowledge on best combination of factors that suit production of rice has contributed to the low production. The aim of this study was to develop a suitability map for rice crop based on physical and climatic factors of production using a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) & GIS approach. The study was carried out in Kirinyaga, Embu and Mberee counties in Kenya. Biophysical variables of soil, climate and topography were considered for suitability analysis. All data were stored in ArcGIS 9.3 environment and the factor maps were generated. For MCE, Pairwise Comparison Matrix was applied and the suitable areas for rice crop were generated and graduated. The current land cover map of the area was developed from a scanned survey map of the rice growing areas. According to the present land cover map, the rice cultivated area was 13,369 ha. Finally, we overlaid the land cover map with the suitability map to identify variances between the present and potential land use. The crop-land evaluation results of the present study showed that, 75% of total area currently being used was under highly suitable areas and 25% was under moderately suitable areas. The results showed that the potential area for rice growing is 86,364 ha and out of this only 12% is under rice cultivation. This research provided information at local level that could be used by farmers to select cropping patterns and suitability.

  20. Establishment and early development of 'Kanza', 'Peruque', and other pecan cultivars in northern U.S. growing regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most pecan (Carya illinoensis) nut production in the northern range of the species (Missouri, Kansas, Northern Arkansas) is from managed wild trees. Orchards of trees grafted to improved cultivars are slowly being established in the region as economic opportunities improve. Pecan cultivars that are ...

  1. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydock, L A J; Pomroy, W E; Stevenson, M A; Lawrence, K E

    2016-09-15

    Infections of ruminants with Fasciola hepatica are considered to be of regional importance within New Zealand but there is very little recent information on its prevalence or severity other than anecdotal reports. Generally they are considered to be of secondary importance compared to gastrointestinal nematode infections. Utilizing data from Virtual Climate Stations (n=11491) distributed on a 5km grid around New Zealand a growing degree-day model was used to describe the risk of infection with liver fluke from 1972 to 2012 and then to apply the predictions to estimate the risk of fluke infections within New Zealand for the years 2040 and 2090. The growing degree-day model was validated against the most recent survey of infection within New Zealand in 1984. A strong positive linear relationship for 1984 between F. hepatica prevalence in lambs and infection risk (prisk values from 14 regions in New Zealand for 1972-2012 did not show any discernible change in risk of infection over this time period (p>0.05). Post-hoc comparisons indicate the risk in Westland was found to be substantially higher (prisk in 2040 and 2090 were detected although they did vary between different climate change scenarios. The highest average percentage changes in infection risk were found in regions with low initial risk values such as Canterbury and Otago; in these regions 2090 infection risk is expected to rise by an average of 186% and 184%, respectively. Despite the already high levels of infection risk in Westland, values are expected to rise by a further 76% by 2090. The model does show some areas with little change with Taranaki predicted to experience only very minor increases in infection risk with average 2040 and 2090 predicted changes of 0% and 29%, respectively. Overall, these results suggest the significance of F. hepatica in New Zealand farming systems is probably underestimated and that this risk will generally increase with global warming following climate change. Copyright

  2. Characterization of leaves and flowers volatile constituents of Lantana camara growing in central region of Saudi Ar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merajuddin Khan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The chemical components of essential oils derived from leaves and flowers of Lantana camara growing in Saudi Arabia are analyzed for the first time using gas chromatography techniques (GC–MS, GC–FID, Co-GC, LRI determination, and database and literature searches on two different stationary phase columns (polar and nonpolar. This analysis led to the identification of total 163 compounds from leaves and flowers oils. 134 compounds were identified in the oil obtained from leaves of L. camara, whereas 127 compounds were identified in the oil obtained from flowers; these compounds account for 96.3% and 95.3% of the oil composition, respectively. The major components in the oil from leaves were cis-3-hexen-1-ol (11.3%, 1-octen-3-ol (8.7%, spathulenol (8.6%, caryophyllene oxide (7.5% and 1-hexanol (5.8%. In contrast, the major compounds in the flowers oil were caryophyllene oxide (10.6%, β-caryophyllene (9.7%, spathulenol (8.6%, γ-cadinene (5.6% and trans-β-farnesene (5.0%. To the best of our knowledge, cis-3-hexen-1-ol and 1-octen-3-ol that were identified as major components in this study have not been reported earlier from Lantana oils.

  3. Exploration of the Growing Trend of Electric Vehicles in Beijing with System Dynamics method and Vensim model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, C.

    2014-01-01

    This research is conducted to explore the growing trend of private vehicles in Beijing, China, in the coming 25 years using the system dynamics (SD) method. The vensim software is used to build the SD model and do simulations. First, the paper introduces the background of the private vehicles in

  4. Feed-forward and generalized regression neural networks in modeling feeding behavior of pigs in the grow-finishing phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeding patterns in group-housed grow-finishing pigs have been investigated for use in management decisions, identifying sick animals, and determining genetic differences within a herd. Development of models to predict swine feeding behaviour has been limited due the large number of potential enviro...

  5. PIEteR : a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.

    1996-01-01


    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.

    PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly

  6. Regional Models for Sediment Toxicity Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper investigates the use of empirical models to predict the toxicity of sediment samples within a region to laboratory test organisms based on sediment chemistry. In earlier work, we used a large nationwide database of matching sediment chemistry and marine amphipod sedim...

  7. Conflict resolution in the zoning of eco-protected areas in fast-growing regions based on game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jinyao; Li, Xia

    2016-04-01

    Zoning eco-protected areas is important for ecological conservation and environmental management. Rapid and continuous urban expansion, however, may exert negative effects on the performance of practical zoning designs. Various methods have been developed for protected area zoning, but most of them failed to consider the conflicts between urban development (for the benefit of land developers) and ecological protection (local government). Some real-world zoning schemes even have to be modified occasionally after the lengthy negotiations between the government and land developers. Therefore, our study has presented a game theory-based method to deal with this problem. Future urban expansion in the study area will be predicted by a logistic regression cellular automaton, while eco-protected areas will be delimitated using multi-objective optimization algorithm. Then, two types of conflicts between them can be resolved based on game theory, a theory of decision-making. We established a two-person dynamic game for each conflict zone. The ecological compensation mechanism was taken into account by simulating the negotiation processes between the government and land developers. A final zoning scheme can be obtained when the two sides reach agreements. The proposed method is applied to the eco-protected area zoning in Guangzhou, a fast-growing city in China. The experiments indicate that the conflicts between eco-protection and urban development will inevitably arise when using only traditional zoning methods. Based on game theory, our method can effectively resolve those conflicts, and can provide a relatively reasonable zoning scheme. This method is expected to support policy-making in environmental management and urban planning. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzfeld, Mike

    2009-02-01

    An operational limited-area ocean modelling system was developed to supply forecasts of ocean state out to 3 days. This system is designed to allow non-specialist users to locate the model domain anywhere within the Australasian region with minimum user input. The model is required to produce a stable simulation every time it is invoked. This paper outlines the methodology used to ensure the model remains stable over the wide range of circumstances it might encounter. Central to the model configuration is an alternative approach to implementing open boundary conditions in a one-way nesting environment. Approximately 170 simulations were performed on limited areas in the Australasian region to assess the model stability; of these, 130 ran successfully with a static model parameterisation allowing a statistical estimate of the model’s approach toward instability to be determined. Based on this, when the model was deemed to be approaching instability a strategy of adaptive intervention in the form of constraint on velocity and elevation was invoked to maintain stability.

  9. Temporal stability of growth and yield among Hevea genotypes introduced to a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.K. Vinod

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Extensive cultivation of Hevea brasiliensis in India now focus on non-traditional regions for rubber cultivation. As a prelude for selection of genotypes for commercial cultivation, many introduced genotypes are being tested in genotype adaptation experiments in these regions. Present study, reports for the first time, growth and yield adaptation of 28 genotypes in a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India viz., the coastal Karnataka region. Agroclimate of this region was found favoring growth and establishment of all the genotypes evaluated. However, not all the genotypes grew and yielded well. Only four genotypes, RRII 203, KRS 25, PB 260 and PB 235 showed good growth and yield. On grouping, the genotypes fell into categories of moderate high yielders, moderate low yielders and low yielders. The most popular variety of the traditional region, RRII 105 did not perform well in this region. Biological stability in growth and yield of RRII 203 and PB 260 was identified as stable and these genotypes were the best adapted. KRS 25 and PB 235 had unstable yielding pattern. The best identified genotypes can be considered for extensive culture as single clone plantations or as major constituent of clone blends as well as parents in future breeding programmes. Other moderate stable yielders may be used for clone blending in smaller proportions and may be subjected to yield improvement.

  10. Temporal stability of growth and yield among Hevea genotypes introduced to a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.K. Vinod

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Extensive cultivation of Hevea brasiliensis in India now focus onnon-traditional regions for rubber cultivation. As a prelude for selection of genotypes for commercial cultivation, many introduced genotypes are being tested in genotype adaptation experiments in these regions. Present study,reports for the first time, growth and yield adaptation of 28 genotypes in a non-traditional rubber growing region of peninsular India viz., the coastal Karnataka region. Agroclimate of this region was found favoring growth andestablishment of all the genotypes evaluated. However, not all the genotypes grew and yielded well. Only four genotypes, RRII 203, KRS 25, PB 260 and PB 235 showed good growth and yield. On grouping, the genotypes fell into categories of moderate high yielders, moderate low yielders and low yielders. The most popular variety of the traditional region, RRII 105 did not perform well in this region. Biological stability in growth and yield of RRII 203 and PB 260 was identified as stable and these genotypes were the best adapted. KRS 25 and PB 235 had unstable yielding pattern. The best identifiedgenotypes can be considered for extensive culture as single clone plantations or as major constituent of clone blends as well as parents in future breeding programmes. Other moderate stable yielders may be used for clone blending in smaller proportions and may be subjected to yield improvement.

  11. Comparison on Phenolic Compounds and Antioxidant Properties of Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot Wines from Four Wine Grape-Growing Regions in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Jiang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·, cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC, superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05 with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

  12. Comparison on phenolic compounds and antioxidant properties of cabernet sauvignon and merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bao; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2012-07-25

    The antioxidant activities in the Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from four wine grape-growing regions in China were measured by different analytical assays: 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH·), cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC), superoxide radical-scavenging activity (SRSA) and the contents of total phenols, total flavonoids, total flavanols and total anthocyanins were determined. The results showed that the contents of phenolic compounds and the levels of antioxidant activity in the wine samples greatly varied with cultivar and environmental factors of vine growth. The contents of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Yuquanying region of Ningxia were significantly higher than other three regions, followed by the wines from Shacheng region of Hebei, and these parameters were the lowest in Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines from the Changli regions of Hebei and Xiangning region of Shanxi. Taken together, a close relationship between phenolic subclasses and antioxidant activity was observed for the wine samples. Moreover, there were significant discrepancies in the individual phenolic composition and content of four regional Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot wines, among which the individual phenolic compounds (catechin, epicatechin, cinnamic acid, quercetin-3-O-glucuronide, quercetin-3-O-glucoside, laricitrin-3-O-glucoside and isorhamnetin-3-O-glucoside) revealed a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the antioxidant capacity in present study, especially for catechin and epicatechin.

  13. Pacific island health inequities forecast to grow unless profound changes are made to health systems in the region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matheson, Don; Park, Kunhee; Soakai, Taniela Sunia

    2017-10-01

    Objective Twenty years ago the Pacific's health ministers developed a 'Healthy Islands' vision to lead health development in the subregion. This paper reports on a review of health development over this period and discusses the implications for the attainment of the health related Sustainable Development Goals. Methods The review used qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative review included conducting semi-structured interviews with Pacific Island Government Ministers and officials, regional agencies, health workers and community members. A document review was also conducted. The quantitative review consisted of examining secondary data from regional and global data collections. Results The review found improvement in health indicators, but increasing health inequality between the Pacific and the rest of the world. Many of the larger island populations were unable to reach the health Millennium Development Goals. The 'Healthy Islands' vision remained an inspiration to health ministers and senior officials in the region. However, implementation of the 'Healthy Islands' approach was patchy, under-resourced and un-sustained. Communicable and Maternal and Child Health challenges persist alongside unprecedented levels of non-communicable diseases, inadequate levels of health finance and few skilled health workers as the major impediments to health development for many of the Pacific's countries. Conclusions The current trajectory for health in the Pacific will lead to increasing health inequity with the rest of the world. The challenges to health in the region include persisting communicable disease and maternal and child health threats, unprecedented levels of NCDs, climate change and instability, as well as low economic growth. In order to change the fortunes of this region in the age of the SDGs, a substantial investment in health is required, including in the health workforce, by countries and donors alike. That investment requires a nuanced response

  14. Molecular and biological characterization of Potato mop-top virus (PMTV, Pomovirus) isolates from potato-growing regions in Colombia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gil, José; Adams, Ian; Boonham, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Potato mop-top virus (PMTV) causes necrotic flecks inside and on tubers in temperate countries. In South America, these symptoms have not been observed, although the presence of the virus has been confirmed in the Andes and in Central America. To characterize PMTV isolates from the Andes, soil...... samples were taken from the main potato-producing regions in Colombia and virus was recovered by planting Nicotiana benthamiana as bait plants. The complete genomes of five isolates were sequenced and three of the isolates were inoculated to four different indicator plants. Based on sequence comparisons...

  15. A GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE, SOIL STRUCTURE, FOREST AREAS, GROWING STOCK AND SOME FORESTRY APPLICATIONS OF ARTVIN REGION

    OpenAIRE

    Yüksek, Turan; Ölmez, Zafer

    2011-01-01

    Artvin is located in the North Eastern Blacksea region of Turkey. Forests of Artvin are spread out from cool climate zone to cold climate zone. Artvin has approximately 390471 ha of forests, which is consist of 276883 ha (70.91%) natural forest and 113588 (29.09 %) coppice forests. Forest area covering 54.77% of total land of Artvin. Most of species of forests (natural and coppice forests) areconiferous trees, such as Picea ssp., Pinus ssp., Juniperus ssp. and broaded leaves such as Quercus s...

  16. Modeling disordered regions in proteins using Rosetta.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Yu-Ruei Wang

    Full Text Available Protein structure prediction methods such as Rosetta search for the lowest energy conformation of the polypeptide chain. However, the experimentally observed native state is at a minimum of the free energy, rather than the energy. The neglect of the missing configurational entropy contribution to the free energy can be partially justified by the assumption that the entropies of alternative folded states, while very much less than unfolded states, are not too different from one another, and hence can be to a first approximation neglected when searching for the lowest free energy state. The shortcomings of current structure prediction methods may be due in part to the breakdown of this assumption. Particularly problematic are proteins with significant disordered regions which do not populate single low energy conformations even in the native state. We describe two approaches within the Rosetta structure modeling methodology for treating such regions. The first does not require advance knowledge of the regions likely to be disordered; instead these are identified by minimizing a simple free energy function used previously to model protein folding landscapes and transition states. In this model, residues can be either completely ordered or completely disordered; they are considered disordered if the gain in entropy outweighs the loss of favorable energetic interactions with the rest of the protein chain. The second approach requires identification in advance of the disordered regions either from sequence alone using for example the DISOPRED server or from experimental data such as NMR chemical shifts. During Rosetta structure prediction calculations the disordered regions make only unfavorable repulsive contributions to the total energy. We find that the second approach has greater practical utility and illustrate this with examples from de novo structure prediction, NMR structure calculation, and comparative modeling.

  17. [Genetic variability of the bacterium Ralstonia solanacearum (Burkholderiales: Burholderiaceae) in the banana-growing region of Uraba (Colombia)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardozo, Carolina; Rodríguez, Paola; Cotes, José Miguel; Marín, Mauricio

    2010-03-01

    The banana moko disease, caused by the bacterium Ralstonia solanacearum, is one of the most important phytopathological problems of the banana agribusiness in tropical countries. In Uraba and Magdalena (Colombia), the main exporting regions of banana in Colombia, this disease causes a destruction estimated in 16.5 ha/year. The bacterium presents an extremely high level of genetic variation that affects control measures. This is the first study of its variation in Colombia and was done with AFLP molecular markers on a population of 100 isolates from banana plants, soils and "weeds". The high level of genetic diversity, with Nei and Shannon indexes of h=0.32 and I=0.48, respectively, and the AMOVA, showed that this population is subestructured (Fst=0.66): the host is the main factor of differentiation. Even so, previous tests show that all varieties have pathogenicity on Musa.

  18. Chemical analysis and antioxidant activity of the essential oils of three Piperaceae species growing in the central region of Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Elisa Jorge; Saucedo-Hernández, Yanelis; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Simó-Alfonso, Ernesto F; Ramis-Ramos, Guillermo; Lerma-García, María Jesús; Monteagudo, Urbano; Bravo, Luis; Medinilla, Mildred; de Armas, Yuriam; Herrero-Martínez, José Manuel

    2013-09-01

    The present study describes the phytochemical profile and antioxidant activity of the essential oils of three Piperaceae species collected in the central region of Cuba. The essential oils of Piper aduncum, P. auritum and P. umbellatum leaves, obtained by hydrodistillation, were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The main components of P. aduncum oil were piperitone (34%), camphor (17.1%), camphene (10.9%), 1,8-cineol (8.7%) and viridiflorol (7.4%), whereas that of P. auritum and P. umbellatum was safrole (71.8 and 26.4%, respectively). The antioxidant properties of the essential oils were also evaluated using several assays for radical scavenging ability (DPPH test and reducing power) and inhibition of lipid oxidation (ferric thiocyanate method and evaluation against Cucurbita seed oil by peroxide, thiobarbituric acid and p-anisidine methods). P. auritum showed the strongest antioxidant activity among the Piper species investigated, but lower than those of butylated hydroxyanisol and propyl gallate.

  19. Effect of land cover and green space on land surface temperature of a fast growing economic region in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikhi, A.; Kanniah, K. D.; Ho, C. H.

    2015-10-01

    Green space must be increased in the development of new cities as green space can moderate temperature in the cities. In this study we estimated the land surface temperature (LST) and established relationships between LST and land cover and various vegetation and urban surface indices in the Iskandar Malaysia (IM) region. IM is one of the emerging economic gateways of Malaysia, and is envisaged to transform into a metropolis by 2025. This change may cause increased temperature in IM and therefore we conducted a study by using Landsat 5 image covering the study region (2,217 km2) to estimate LST, classify different land covers and calculate spectral indices. Results show that urban surface had highest LST (24.49 °C) and the lowest temperature was recorded in, forest, rubber and water bodies ( 20.69 to 21.02°C). Oil palm plantations showed intermediate mean LST values with 21.65 °C. We further investigated the relationship between vegetation and build up densities with temperature. We extracted 1000 collocated pure pixels of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Urban Index (UI) and LST in the study area. Results show a strong and significant negative correlation with (R2= -0.74 and -0.79) respectively between NDVI, NDWI and LST . Meanwhile a strong positive correlation (R2=0.8 and 0.86) exists between NDBI, UI and LST. These results show the importance of increasing green cover in urban environment to combat any adverse effects of climate change.

  20. Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhongkui; Wang, Enli; Bryan, Brett A; King, Darran; Zhao, Gang; Pan, Xubin; Bende-Michl, Ulrike

    2013-03-01

    Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.

  1. Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

    1983-01-01

    The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

  2. Maturity stages affect the postharvest quality and shelf-life of fruits of strawberry genotypes growing in subtropical regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moshiur Rahman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The postharvest changes of five promising strawberry genotypes viz. Sweet Charlie, Festival, Camarosa, FA 008 and BARI Strawberry-1 at ambient temperature were studied under sub tropical region during the winter season (December–April of 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 in Bangladesh. Irrespective of maturity stages percent fruit decay and weight of fruits were noted minimum in Camarosa and maximum in FA 008 up to day 4 of storage. The shelf life of fruits was maximum in Camarosa and minimum in FA 008 and BARI Strawberry-1 regardless of maturity stage throughout the storage period. The TSS, total sugar and ascorbic acid content of fruits were increased with the increase in maturity stage during the storage period. In 1/3rd and 2/3rd maturity stages, the TSS and total sugar content were found the highest in Festival but at full maturity stage those were recorded higher in Camarosa. The titratable acidity was noticed the highest in 1/3rd matured fruits and gradually decreased with the increase in maturity stage as well as storage duration in all the genotypes. Ascorbic acid content of strawberry gradually decreases during the storage period. Fully matured fresh fruits of Festival contained maximum ascorbic acid content while BARI Strawberry-1 contained minimum ascorbic acid that was reduced after 3 days of storage.

  3. Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of a Desmopressin Oral Lyophilisate in Growing Piglets as a Model for the Pediatric Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke Gasthuys

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Desmopressin is used to treat primary nocturnal enuresis in children. Over the years, various formulations of desmopressin were commercialized of which the sublingual melt tablet is preferred in the pediatric population, despite the lack of full PK studies in this population. A full PK study was performed in growing conventional piglets to evaluate if this juvenile animal model can provide supplementary information to complement the information gap in the pediatric population. A desmopressin sublingual melt tablet (120 μg was administered to 32 male piglets aged 8 days, 4 weeks, 7 weeks, and 6 months (each group n = 8. Population PK (pop-PK analysis was performed to derive the PK parameters, the between- and within-subject variabilities and the effects of covariates. Desmopressin demonstrated two-compartmental PK, with a dual, sequential absorption process, and linear elimination. Body weight was the only significant covariate on clearance and on apparent volume of distribution of the central compartment. In human pediatric trials, no double peak in the absorption phase was observed in the plasma concentration-time curves, possibly due to the sparse sampling strategy applied in those pediatric studies. Therefore, it is recommended to perform additional studies, based on the sampling protocol applied in the current study.

  4. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  5. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. The Tax harmonization in open regionalism ; The European model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mouloud MELIKAOUI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the subject of alternative regionalism or open regionalism and reality within the multilateral trading system, based on growing liberalization of trade, and the problem of compatibility between them, as well as the limits of economic policy harmonization in the framework of Open regionalism, special tax harmonization, in the light of economic and tax disparities of the Member States, with an overview of the European tax harmonization and limits. The Study concluded the importance of tax harmonization as a tool by activation of the concept of open regionalism, through facilitating capitals flows and investments between member states and reduction of the négatives phenomena of tax. It recommended the need to emphasizing on the importance of gradually harmonization for tax policy, and expand the rule of tax treaties and exchange of tax information and experiences between countries, This is in light a holistic approach to other economic policies as a the exchange rate policy and monetary policy, just as is the case in the European model.

  7. Differences in the progress of the biopesticide revolution between the EU and other major crop-growing regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balog, Adalbert; Hartel, Tibor; Loxdale, Hugh D; Wilson, Kenneth

    2017-11-01

    The five-year value in the compound annual growth rate of the biopesticides sector is predicted to be 16% by 2017 and to produce a global market worth $US 10 billion. Despite this, several impediments occur within the EU that negatively affect biopesticide research and innovation. At present, there are fewer biopesticide-active substances registered in the EU compared with the United States, India, Brazil and China. The relatively low level of biopesticide research in the EU (6880 ISI papers) versus the United States (18 839), India (9501) and China (7875) relates to the greater complexity of EU-based biopesticide regulations compared with these other countries. In this light, it is worth noting that tensions may exist between regulators that emphasise the beneficial nature of biopesticides in environmentally friendly crop management and those that adopt a more technologically based approach dependent on a chemical-pesticide-driven model. Compared with the other aforementioned countries, far fewer biopesticide products are available in the EU market, mainly as a direct result of the severe regulatory factors present there. The extent to which this trend will continue depends largely on a range of interacting political and/or regulatory decisions that influence environmentally friendly agricultural industries. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. Chemical diversity of essential oils from flowers,leaves,and stems of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv. growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marwa Awad; Abdelrhman Abdelwahab

    2016-01-01

    Objective:To evaluate the medicinal uses of Rhanterium epapposum Oliv.(R.epapposum) growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia,through the chemical diversity of essential oils extracted from its flowers,leaves and stems.Methods:Aerial parts of R.epapposum were collected in April 2014.Air dried flowers,leaves,and stems were separately subjected to hydrodistillation in a Clevenger-type apparatus for 4 h to extract the essential oils.Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis of the essential oils was carried out using an Agilent 6890 gas chromatograph equipped with an Agilent 5973 mass spectrometric detector.Results:A total of 51 compounds representing 76.35%–94.86% of flowers,leaves and stems oils composition were identified.The chemical profiles of the studied fractions revealed the dominance of monoterpenes,regardless of qualitative and quantitative differences observed.Limonene,linalool,4-terpineol and a-cadinol represented the major constituents of flowers oil.Leaves oil was dominated by limonene,sabinene,a-pinene and b-myrcene whereas linalool,ionole,a-cadinol,b-eudesmol,4-terpineol,and aterpineol were the major constituents of stems oil.Conclusions:Essential oils from flowers,leaves and stems of R.epapposum growing in northern border region of Saudi Arabia are considered as a rich source of monoterpenes which have biological activities.

  9. Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Tammara L; Pai, Naresh; Winchell, Michael F

    2016-06-01

    A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides. Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated. In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Growing up and Role Modeling: A Theory in Iranian Nursing Students? Education

    OpenAIRE

    Nouri, Jamileh Mokhtari; Ebadi, Abbas; Alhani, Fatemeh; Rejeh, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    One of the key strategies in students? learning is being affected by models. Understanding the role-modeling process in education will help to make greater use of this training strategy. The aim of this grounded theory study was to explore Iranian nursing students and instructors? experiences about role modeling process. Data was analyzed by Glaserian?s Grounded Theory methodology through semi-structured interviews with 7 faculty members, 2 nursing students; the three focus group discussions ...

  11. Modeling of Faecal Contamination in Water from Catchment to Shellfish Growing Area

    OpenAIRE

    Bougeard, Morgane; Le Saux, Jean-claude; Perenne, Nicolas; Le Guyader, Soizick; Pommepuy, Monique

    2009-01-01

    During rainstorms, watersheds can introduce large amounts of faecal pollution into the rivers and sea, leading to shellfish contamination. In this study, we assessed Escherichia coli fluxes from a catchment, and their impact on estuarine water quality, using two assembled models. For the catchment, the agro-hydrological model SWAT was implemented integrating land uses, soil, topography, rainfall and other climatic data on Daoulas watershed (France). Initially, the SWAT model was calibrated an...

  12. Modelling of the metabolism of Zymomonas mobilis growing on a defined medium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Posten, C

    1989-08-07

    A structured model of Zymomonas mobilis is presented using fermentation data of a defined aspartate medium. After some remarks on the structure of the metabolism the model is derived by considering sub-models, e.g. balance equations, and by identifying the unknown parameters separately for each sub-model. Some results are the elemental composition of Zymomonas mobilis, a description of the substrate uptake during substrate limitation and the growth inhibition during substrate saturation. The results are shown as simulation and are discussed in relation to the inhibitory effect of ethanol on the bacterial cell. (orig.).

  13. AN INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGICAL TRACEABILITY MODEL IN THE OLIVE GROWING PRODUCTION CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferruccio Giametta

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The indication of the “path” travelled by all European agrofood products has by now become compulsory: starting from January the 1st, 2005 EC Regulation 178/2002 has established the notions of food tracking and tracing as well as the concept of food safety. Food traceability and safety are becoming notions of crucial importance to those who work in this sector in view of their potentially positive influence on produce competitiveness and appreciation on the part of consumers. This specific line of research is focused on the analysis and the use of both tracking and tracing systems of olive and olive oil products throughout the entire territory of Calabria. A detailed analysis of the productive processes has been made possible through the definition of the socalled “dynamic lot”: a unit of product processed (either directly or indirectly in a time unit (usually a day, as a function of the peculiarities of the olive growing farms involved (orographic features, level of mechanization, etc.. The software architecture (which is currently being updated has been studied considering the reality of the territory in question, and the average level of computer/software literacy of the operators asked to use it.

  14. Modeling skin temperature to assess the effect of air velocity to mitigate heat stress among growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Bjarne; Pedersen, Poul; Morsing, Svend

    2017-01-01

    It is generally accepted that increased air velocity can help to mitigate heat stress in livestock housing, however, it is not fully clear how much it helps and significant uncertainties exists when the air temperature approaches the animal body temperature. This study aims to develop a skin...... temperature model to generated data for determining the potential effect of air velocity to mitigate heat stress among growing pigs housed in warm environment. The model calculates the skin temperature as function of body temperature, air temperature and the resistances for heat transfer from the body...

  15. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi; Wolf, Joost

    2017-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species and

  16. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi

    2017-01-01

    Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species and cultiv......Crop models are essential tools in climate change impact assessments, but they often lack comprehensive field testing. In this study, we tested the SUBSTOR-potato model with 87 field experiments, including 204 treatments from 19 countries. The field experiments varied in potato species...... and cultivars, N fertilizer application, water supply, sowing dates, soil types, temperature environments, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and included open top chamber and Free-Air-CO2-Enrichment (FACE) experiments. Tuber yields were generally well simulated with the SUBSTOR-potato model across a wide...

  17. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Cyclic Loading of Growing Tissue in a Bioreactor: Mathematical Model and Asymptotic Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Pohlmeyer, J. V.; Cummings, L. J.

    2013-01-01

    A simplified 2D mathematical model for tissue growth within a cyclically-loaded tissue engineering scaffold is presented and analyzed. Such cyclic loading has the potential to improve yield and functionality of tissue such as bone and cartilage when

  19. Growing up and role modeling: a theory in Iranian nursing students' education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari Nouri, Jamileh; Ebadi, Abbas; Alhani, Fatemeh; Rejeh, Nahid

    2014-11-16

    One of the key strategies in students' learning is being affected by models. Understanding the role-modeling process in education will help to make greater use of this training strategy. The aim of this grounded theory study was to explore Iranian nursing students and instructors' experiences about role modeling process. Data was analyzed by Glaserian's Grounded Theory methodology through semi-structured interviews with 7 faculty members, 2 nursing students; the three focus group discussions with 20 nursing students based on purposive and theoretical sampling was done for explaining role modeling process from four nursing faculties in Tehran. Through basic coding, an effort to comprehensive growth and excellence was made with the basic social process consisting the core category and through selective coding three phases were identified as: realizing and exposure to inadequate human and professional growth, facilitating human and professional growth and evolution. The role modeling process is taking place unconscious, involuntary, dynamic and with positive progressive process in order to facilitate overall growth in nursing student. Accordingly, the design and implementation of the designed model can be used to make this unconscious to conscious, active and voluntarily processes a process to help education administrators of nursing colleges and supra organization to prevent threats to human and professional in nursing students' education and promote nursing students' growth.

  20. Rice growing farmers efficiency measurement using a slack based interval DEA model with undesirable outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

    2017-11-01

    In recent years eco-efficiency which considers the effect of production process on environment in determining the efficiency of firms have gained traction and a lot of attention. Rice farming is one of such production processes which typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable. In efficiency analysis, these undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in the model to obtain the actual estimation of firm's efficiency. There are numerous approaches that have been used in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to account for undesirable outputs of which directional distance function (DDF) approach is the most widely used as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, slack based DDF DEA approaches considers the output shortfalls and input excess in determining efficiency. In situations when data uncertainty is present, the deterministic DEA model is not suitable to be used as the effects of uncertain data will not be considered. In this case, it has been found that interval data approach is suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding the underlying data distribution and membership function. The proposed model uses an enhanced DEA model which is based on DDF approach and incorporates slack based measure to determine efficiency in the presence of undesirable factors and data uncertainty. Interval data approach was used to estimate the values of inputs, undesirable outputs and desirable outputs. Two separate slack based interval DEA models were constructed for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The developed model was used to determine rice farmers efficiency from Kepala Batas, Kedah. The obtained results were later compared to the results obtained using a deterministic DDF DEA model. The study found that 15 out of 30 farmers are efficient in all cases. It

  1. Coalescent models for developmental biology and the spatio-temporal dynamics of growing tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smadbeck, Patrick; Stumpf, Michael P H

    2016-04-01

    Development is a process that needs to be tightly coordinated in both space and time. Cell tracking and lineage tracing have become important experimental techniques in developmental biology and allow us to map the fate of cells and their progeny. A generic feature of developing and homeostatic tissues that these analyses have revealed is that relatively few cells give rise to the bulk of the cells in a tissue; the lineages of most cells come to an end quickly. Computational and theoretical biologists/physicists have, in response, developed a range of modelling approaches, most notably agent-based modelling. These models seem to capture features observed in experiments, but can also become computationally expensive. Here, we develop complementary genealogical models of tissue development that trace the ancestry of cells in a tissue back to their most recent common ancestors. We show that with both bounded and unbounded growth simple, but universal scaling relationships allow us to connect coalescent theory with the fractal growth models extensively used in developmental biology. Using our genealogical perspective, it is possible to study bulk statistical properties of the processes that give rise to tissues of cells, without the need for large-scale simulations. © 2016 The Authors.

  2. Cyclic Loading of Growing Tissue in a Bioreactor: Mathematical Model and Asymptotic Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Pohlmeyer, J. V.

    2013-10-24

    A simplified 2D mathematical model for tissue growth within a cyclically-loaded tissue engineering scaffold is presented and analyzed. Such cyclic loading has the potential to improve yield and functionality of tissue such as bone and cartilage when grown on a scaffold within a perfusion bioreactor. The cyclic compression affects the flow of the perfused nutrient, leading to flow properties that are inherently unsteady, though periodic, on a timescale short compared with that of tissue proliferation. A two-timescale analysis based on these well-separated timescales is exploited to derive a closed model for the tissue growth on the long timescale of proliferation. Some sample numerical results are given for the final model, and discussed. © 2013 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  3. Stochastic dynamical model of a growing citation network based on a self-exciting point process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin

    2012-08-31

    We put under experimental scrutiny the preferential attachment model that is commonly accepted as a generating mechanism of the scale-free complex networks. To this end we chose a citation network of physics papers and traced the citation history of 40,195 papers published in one year. Contrary to common belief, we find that the citation dynamics of the individual papers follows the superlinear preferential attachment, with the exponent α=1.25-1.3. Moreover, we show that the citation process cannot be described as a memoryless Markov chain since there is a substantial correlation between the present and recent citation rates of a paper. Based on our findings we construct a stochastic growth model of the citation network, perform numerical simulations based on this model and achieve an excellent agreement with the measured citation distributions.

  4. Droplets: Unconventional Protocell Model with Life-Like Dynamics and Room to Grow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin M Hanczyc

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few decades, several protocell models have been developed that mimic certain essential characteristics of living cells. These protocells tend to be highly reductionist simplifications of living cells with prominent bilayer membrane boundaries, encapsulated metabolisms and/or encapsulated biologically-derived polymers as potential sources of information coding. In parallel with this conventional work, a novel protocell model based on droplets is also being developed. Such water-in-oil and oil-in-water droplet systems can possess chemical and biochemical transformations and biomolecule production, self-movement, self-division, individuality, group dynamics, and perhaps the fundamentals of intelligent systems and evolution. Given the diverse functionality possible with droplets as mimics of living cells, this system has the potential to be the first true embodiment of artificial life that is an orthologous departure from the one familiar type of biological life. This paper will synthesize the recent activity to develop droplets as protocell models.

  5. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi

    2017-01-01

    and cultivars, N fertilizer application, water supply, sowing dates, soil types, temperature environments, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and included open top chamber and Free-Air-CO2-Enrichment (FACE) experiments. Tuber yields were generally well simulated with the SUBSTOR-potato model across a wide.......4% for tuber fresh weight. Cultivars ‘Desiree’ and ‘Atlantic’ were grown in experiments across the globe and well simulated using consistent cultivar parameters. However, the model underestimated the impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and poorly simulated high temperature effects on crop growth....... Other simulated crop variables, including leaf area, stem weight, crop N, and soil water, differed frequently from measurements; some of these variables had significant large measurement errors. The SUBSTOR-potato model was shown to be suitable to simulate tuber growth and yields over a wide range...

  6. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail: sahubar@uum.edu.my; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail: razamin@uum.edu.my; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: baten-math@yahoo.com [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUM College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)

    2015-12-11

    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.

  7. Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Grow Progressively in Size and Decay in Intensity after Reaching Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-17

    the distribution of azimuthally-averaged diabatic heating rate derived from the MM5 output. The coefficients of this equation are deter- mined by the...contributions to the intensification of Hurricane Opal as diagnosed from a GFDL model forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1866–1881. Montgomery, M. T., M. E

  8. Interaction forces model on a bubble growing for nuclear best estimate computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa-Paredes, Gilberto; Nunez-Carrera, Alejandro; Martinez-Mendez, Elizabeth J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model that takes into account the bubble radius variation that take place in a boiling water nuclear reactor during transients with changes in the pressure vessel, changes in the inlet core mass flow rate, density-wave phenomena or flow regime instability. The model with expansion effects was developed considering the interaction force between a dilute dispersion of gas bubbles and a continuous liquid phase. The closure relationships were formulated as an associated problem with the spatial deviation around averaging variables as a function of known variables. In order to solve the closure problem, a geometric model given by an eccentric unit cell was applied as an approach of heterogeneous structure of the two-phase flow. The closure relationship includes additional terms that represent combined effects between translation and pulsation due to displacement and size variation of the bubbles, respectively. This result can be implanted straightforward in best estimate thermo-hydraulics models. An example, the implementation of the closure relationships into TRAC best estimate computer code is presented

  9. Merging tree algorithm of growing voids in self-similar and CDM models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, Esra

    2013-01-01

    Observational studies show that voids are prominent features of the large-scale structure of the present-day Universe. Even though their emerging from the primordial density perturbations and evolutionary patterns differ from dark matter haloes, N-body simulations and theoretical models have shown

  10. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency

  11. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.

  12. Establishment of imageable model of T-cell lymphoma growing in syngenic mice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Větvička, David; Hovorka, Ondřej; Kovář, Lubomír; Říhová, Blanka

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 11 (2009), s. 4513-4518 ISSN 0250-7005 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400200702; GA AV ČR KAN200200651; GA ČR GD310/08/H077 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : Imageable model * EL-4 T- cell lymphoma * whole body imaging Subject RIV: EC - Immunology Impact factor: 1.428, year: 2009

  13. Growing complex network of citations of scientific papers: Modeling and measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golosovsky, Michael; Solomon, Sorin

    2017-01-01

    We consider the network of citations of scientific papers and use a combination of the theoretical and experimental tools to uncover microscopic details of this network growth. Namely, we develop a stochastic model of citation dynamics based on the copying-redirection-triadic closure mechanism. In a complementary and coherent way, the model accounts both for statistics of references of scientific papers and for their citation dynamics. Originating in empirical measurements, the model is cast in such a way that it can be verified quantitatively in every aspect. Such validation is performed by measuring citation dynamics of physics papers. The measurements revealed nonlinear citation dynamics, the nonlinearity being intricately related to network topology. The nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences including nonstationary citation distributions, diverging citation trajectories of similar papers, runaways or "immortal papers" with infinite citation lifetime, etc. Thus nonlinearity in complex network growth is our most important finding. In a more specific context, our results can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.

  14. Fee-for-service as a business model of growing importance: the academic biobank experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Sandra A; Sommerkamp, Kara; Egan-Palmer, Maureen; Kharasch, Karen; Holtschlag, Victoria

    2012-10-01

    Biorepositories offer tremendous scientific value to a wide variety of customer groups (academic, commercial, industrial) in their ability to deliver a centralized, standardized service model, encompassing both biospecimen storage and related laboratory services. Generally, the scientific expertise and economies of scale that are offered in centralized, properly resourced research biobanks has yielded value that has been well-recognized by universities, pharmaceutical companies, and other sponsoring institutions. However, like many facets of the economy, biobanks have been under increasing cost pressure in recent years. This has been a particular problem in the academic arena, where direct support from grant sources (both governmental and philanthropic) typically now is more difficult to secure, or provides reduced financial support, relative to previous years. One way to address this challenge is to establish or enhance a well-defined fee-for-service model which is properly calibrated to cover operational costs while still offering competitive value to users. In this model, customers are never charged for the biospecimens themselves, but rather for the laboratory services associated with them. Good communication practices, proper assessment of value, implementation of best practices, and a sound business plan are all needed for this initiative to succeed. Here we summarize our experiences at Washington University School of Medicine in the expectation they will be useful to others.

  15. FORMATION OF A INNOVATION REGIONAL CLUSTER MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Merzlikina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. As a result of investigation of science and methodical approaches related problems of building and development of innovation clusters there were some issues in functional assignments of innovation and production clusters. Because of those issues, article’s authors differ conceptions of innovation cluster and production cluster, as they explain notion of innovation-production cluster. The main goal of this article is to reveal existing organizational issues in cluster building and its successful development. Based on regional clusters building analysis carried out there was typical practical structure of cluster members interaction revealed. This structure also have its cons, as following: absence cluster orientation to marketing environment, lack of members’ prolonged relations’ building and development system, along with ineffective management of information, financial and material streams within cluster, narrow competence difference and responsibility zones between cluster members, lack of transparence of cluster’s action, low environment changes adaptivity, hard to use cluster members’ intellectual property, and commercialization of hi-tech products. When all those issues listed above come together, it reduces life activity of existing models of innovative cluster-building along with practical opportunity of cluster realization. Because of that, authors offer an upgraded innovative-productive cluster building model with more efficient business processes management system, which includes advanced innovative cluster structure, competence matrix and subcluster responsibility zone. Suggested model differs from other ones by using unified innovative product development control center, which also controls production and marketing realization.

  16. Modeling of the Bacillus subtilis Bacterial Biofilm Growing on an Agar Substrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoling; Wang, Guoqing; Hao, Mudong

    2015-01-01

    Bacterial biofilms are organized communities composed of millions of microorganisms that accumulate on almost any kinds of surfaces. In this paper, a biofilm growth model on an agar substrate is developed based on mass conservation principles, Fick's first law, and Monod's kinetic reaction, by considering nutrient diffusion between biofilm and agar substrate. Our results show biofilm growth evolution characteristics such as biofilm thickness, active biomass, and nutrient concentration in the agar substrate. We quantitatively obtain biofilm growth dependence on different parameters. We provide an alternative mathematical method to describe other kinds of biofilm growth such as multiple bacterial species biofilm and also biofilm growth on various complex substrates.

  17. An Academic-Practice Partnership Model to Grow and Sustain Advanced Practice Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tracy E; Howard, Patricia B

    2017-12-01

    The aims of this article were to describe the implementation of an academic-practice partnership for healthcare system workforce development and provide preliminary outcomes of the associated pilot study. The demand for cross-continuum healthcare delivery models necessitates creation of workforce development structures for advanced practice nursing. An academic-practice partnership specified enrollment of 5 cohorts of BSN staff nurses in a 3-year DNP program. Qualitative methods were used to explore pilot data at midpoint of cohort 1 student progression to determine learning outcomes and DNP projects with potential for impact on organization goals. Partnership implementation experiences indicate that contractual agreements and an established evaluation plan are keys to academic-practice partnership success. Pilot study findings suggest that curriculum core courses provide a foundation for designing DNP projects congruent with acute and primary care health system goals. Implementing an academic-practice partnership is a strategy for workforce development to increase retention of advanced practice nurses. Academic-practice partnerships can serve as a catalyst for a paradigm shift for changing models of care, thus enhancing workforce development succession planning for sustainable growth in healthcare systems.

  18. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  19. Modeling of the Bacillus subtilis Bacterial Biofilm Growing on an Agar Substrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoling Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial biofilms are organized communities composed of millions of microorganisms that accumulate on almost any kinds of surfaces. In this paper, a biofilm growth model on an agar substrate is developed based on mass conservation principles, Fick’s first law, and Monod’s kinetic reaction, by considering nutrient diffusion between biofilm and agar substrate. Our results show biofilm growth evolution characteristics such as biofilm thickness, active biomass, and nutrient concentration in the agar substrate. We quantitatively obtain biofilm growth dependence on different parameters. We provide an alternative mathematical method to describe other kinds of biofilm growth such as multiple bacterial species biofilm and also biofilm growth on various complex substrates.

  20. FRUIT FLIES AND THEIR PARASITOIDS IN THE FRUIT GROWING REGION OF LIVRAMENTO DE NOSSA SENHORA, BAHIA, WITH RECORDS OF UNPRECEDENTED INTERACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUZANY AGUIAR LEITE

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Several fruit fly species (Diptera: Tephritidae and Lonchaeidae assume the status of primary pests in fruit trees grown in Brazil, causing direct production losses. The aims of the study were to know aspects of diversity of fruit flies and their parasitoids in the fruit growing region of Livramento de Nossa Senhora, Bahia. Fruit samples were collected from 19 plant species during November/2011 and June/2014. Infestation rates were calculated in pupae.kg-1 of fruit and pupae.fruit-1. The results indicate the occurrence of Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann and Neosilba pendula (Bezzi. Plant species Anacardium occidentale, Averrhoa carambola, Carica papaya, Eugenia uniflora, Malpighia emarginata, Mangifera indica var. “Haden”, “Rosa” and “Tommy Atkins”, Opuntia ficus indica, Pereskia bahiensis, Psidium guajava, Spondias lutea, Spondias purpurea and Spondias tuberosa are hosts of fruit flies in the region. Unprecedented bitrophic relationships between P. bahiensis and C. capitata and Anastrepha sp. and between Opuntia ficus indica and C. capitata and A. obliqua were recorded. Unprecedented tritrophic relationship for the state of Bahia Averrhoa carambola and C. capitata and parasitoid of the Pteromalidae Family were also recorded. Tritrophic associations between M. indica var. “Tommy Atkins” and S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Doryctobracon areolatus; and between S. purpurea and A. obliqua and Utetes anastrephae were observed.

  1. A novel region-growing based semi-automatic segmentation protocol for three-dimensional condylar reconstruction using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Xi

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To present and validate a semi-automatic segmentation protocol to enable an accurate 3D reconstruction of the mandibular condyles using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Approval from the regional medical ethics review board was obtained for this study. Bilateral mandibular condyles in ten CBCT datasets of patients were segmented using the currently proposed semi-automatic segmentation protocol. This segmentation protocol combined 3D region-growing and local thresholding algorithms. The segmentation of a total of twenty condyles was performed by two observers. The Dice-coefficient and distance map calculations were used to evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. RESULTS: The mean inter-observer Dice-coefficient was 0.98 (range [0.95-0.99]. An average 90th percentile distance of 0.32 mm was found, indicating an excellent inter-observer similarity of the segmented and 3D rendered condyles. No systematic errors were observed in the currently proposed segmentation protocol. CONCLUSION: The novel semi-automated segmentation protocol is an accurate and reproducible tool to segment and render condyles in 3D. The implementation of this protocol in the clinical practice allows the CBCT to be used as an imaging modality for the quantitative analysis of condylar morphology.

  2. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from cropland at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrielle Benoît

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Arable soils are a large source of nitrous oxide (N2O emissions, making up half of the biogenic emissions worldwide. Estimating their source strength requires methods capable of capturing the spatial and temporal variability of N2O emissions, along with the effects of crop management. Here, we applied a process-based model, CERES, with geo-referenced input data on soils, weather, and land use to map N2O emissions from wheat-cropped soils in three agriculturally intensive regions in France. Emissions were mostly controlled by soil type and local climate conditions, and only to a minor extent by the doses of fertilizer nitrogen applied. As a result, the direct emission factors calculated at the regional level were much smaller (ranging from 0.0007 to 0.0033 kg N2O-N kg–1 N than the value of 0.0125 kg N2O-N kg–1 N currently recommended in the IPCC Tier 1 methodology. Regional emissions were far more sensitive to the soil microbiological parameter s governing denitrification and its fraction evolved as N2O, soil bulk density, and soil initial inorganic N content. Mitigation measures should therefore target a reduction in the amount of soil inorganic N upon sowing of winter crops, and a decrease of the soil N2O production potential itself. From a general perspective, taking into account the spatial variability of soils and climate thereby appears necessary to improve the accuracy of national inventories, and to tailor mitigation strategies to regional characteristics. The methodology and results presented here may easily be transferred to winter oilseed rape, whose has growing cycle and fertilser requirements are similar.

  3. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Minhui; Yang, Bao; Shishov, Vladimir; Rossi, Sergio; Bräuning, Achim; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Grießinger, Jussi

    2018-04-01

    The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the global mean. In this study, the 1960-2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960-2014, and April-September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS. We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960-2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade -1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological

  4. Strontium Ranelate Reduces the Fracture Incidence in a Growing Mouse Model of Osteogenesis Imperfecta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Changgui; Hu, Bo; Guo, Lei; Cao, Peng; Tian, Ye; Ma, Jun; Chen, Yuanyuan; Wu, Huiqiao; Hu, Jinquan; Deng, Lianfu; Zhang, Ying; Yuan, Wen

    2016-05-01

    Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a genetic bone dysplasia characterized by brittle bones with increased fracture risk. Although current treatment options to improve bone strength in OI focus on antiresorptive bisphosphonates, controlled clinical trials suggest they have an equivocal effect on reducing fracture risk. Strontium ranelate (SrR) is a promising therapy with a dual mode of action that is capable of simultaneously maintaining bone formation and reducing bone resorption, and may be beneficial for the treatment of OI. In this study, SrR therapy was investigated to assess its effects on fracture frequency and bone mass and strength in an animal model of OI, the oim/oim mouse. Three-week-old oim/oim and wt/wt mice were treated with either SrR or vehicle (Veh) for 11 weeks. After treatment, the average number of fractures sustained by SrR-treated oim/oim mice was significantly reduced compared to Veh-treated oim/oim mice. Micro-computed tomographic (μCT) analyses of femurs showed that both trabecular and cortical bone mass were significantly improved with SrR treatment in both genotypes. SrR significantly inhibited bone resorption, whereas bone formation indices were maintained. Biomechanical testing revealed improved bone structural properties in both oim/oim and wild-type (wt/wt) mice under the treatment, whereas no significant effects on bone brittleness and material quality were observed. In conclusion, SrR was able to effectively reduce fractures in oim/oim mice by improving bone mass and strength and thus represents a potential therapy for the treatment of pediatric OI. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  5. Thermal conditions of the grape growing season within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine (on the example of Kharkiv region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Борис Шуліка

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the results of the thermal conditions observations within the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine as one of the most important factors for successful cultivation of grapes, thus providing crop productivity. Considering the effect of thermal factors, it can be noted that the intensity and speed of life processes of plants are well- defined under temperature conditions only in the circumstances where other environmental factors are not limited. The thermal regime was initially taken into account in practice in XVII century. In XIX century the agro-climatic areas to grow grapes were determined in North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine. Detailed studies of agro-climatic conditions of specific areas can more thoroughly to make conclusions and recommendations for the cultivation of grapes as a whole in the territory, and specifically in those areas were given. In studying the thermal balance of the territory the average and extreme temperature should be paid attention to. Characteristic features of the thermal regime are given in this paper based on the study of atmospheric phenomena, geomorphology and territories with radiation influence and water flow regime. Thermal treatment is subjected to anthropogenic influence, and in cultivating tenants can use appropriate agricultural practices (conceal bushes, warm soil and air, and even crops in protective ground, in greenhouses. Characteristically, technology of greenhouses growers is even used in Kherson region. These data can be used in neighborhood and the adjacent areas, especially they are useful for the practice of growing grapes. The possibility of successful cultivation of dozens of grape varieties in the North-Eastern steppe land of Ukraine has been well-grounded.

  6. Development of an In Vivo and In Vitro Ileal Fermentation Method in a Growing Pig Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Carlos A; de Haas, Edward S; Moughan, Paul J

    2018-02-01

    Substantial microbial fermentation may occur mainly in the lower small intestine (SI) of human adults, but there is no established methodology to determine this. The study aimed to develop a combined in vivo and in vitro methodology for ileal fermentation based on the pig as an animal model for digestion in human adults. Several aspects of a combined in vivo/in vitro ileal fermentation assay were evaluated. Male 9-wk-old pigs (n = 30; mean ± SD body weight: 23 ± 1.6 kg) were fed a human-type diet (143, 508, 45, 49, and 116 g/kg dry matter diet of crude protein, starch, total lipid, ash, and total dietary fiber) for 15 d. On day 15, pigs were killed, and the last third of the SI was collected to prepare an ileal digesta-based inoculum. Terminal jejunal digesta (last 50 cm of the second third of the SI) were collected as substrate for the assay to test the form of substrate (fresh or freeze-dried), origin (location in jejunum or SI) of the substrate, storage of the inoculum, incubation time (1.2-6.8 h), pH of the medium, and inoculum concentration (6-26 mg inoculum/100 mg substrate). The group of donor pigs used to prepare the inoculum, form of the substrate, origin of the substrate, origin of the inoculum (location in the SI), storage of the inoculum, incubation time, and inoculum concentration did not influence the in vitro ileal organic matter (OM) fermentability (P > 0.05). The in vitro ileal OM fermentability decreased when the pH of the medium increased from 5.5 to 7.5 (31% to 28%; P ≤ 0.05). Predicted (in vivo/in vitro) apparent ileal OM digestibility was similar to the value measured in vivo. Thirty-percent of the terminal jejunal digesta OM was fermented in the ileum. Fiber fermentation in the ileum can be studied using the optimized in vivo/in vitro ileal fermentation method.

  7. Growing Pains

    CERN Multimedia

    Katarina Anthony

    2013-01-01

    Heat expands and cold contracts: it’s a simple thermodynamic rule. But when temperatures swing from 300 K to near-absolute zero, this rule can mean a contraction of more than 80 metres across the LHC’s 27-km-long cryogenic system. Keeping this growth in check are compensators (a.k.a. bellows), which shrink and stretch in response to thermodynamic changes. Leak tests and X-rays now underway in the tunnel have revealed that these “joints” might be suffering from growing pains…   This 25-μm weld crack is thought to be the cause of the helium leaks. Prior to the LS1 warm-up, CERN’s cryogenic experts knew of two points in the machine’s cryogenic distribution system that were leaking helium. Fortunately, these leaks were sufficiently small, confined to known sub-sectors of the cryogenic line and – with help from the vacuum team (TE-VSC) – could easily be compensated for. But as the machine warmed up f...

  8. GrowYourIC: A Step Toward a Coherent Model of the Earth's Inner Core Seismic Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasbleis, Marine; Waszek, Lauren; Day, Elizabeth A.

    2017-11-01

    A complex inner core structure has been well established from seismic studies, showing radial and lateral heterogeneities at various length scales. Yet no geodynamic model is able to explain all the features observed. One of the main limits for this is the lack of tools to compare seismic observations and numerical models successfully. We use here a new Python tool called GrowYourIC to compare models of inner core structure. We calculate properties of geodynamic models of the inner core along seismic raypaths, for random or user-specified data sets. We test kinematic models which simulate fast lateral translation, superrotation, and differential growth. We explore first the influence on a real inner core data set, which has a sparse coverage of the inner core boundary. Such a data set is however able to successfully constrain the hemispherical boundaries due to a good sampling of latitudes. Combining translation and rotation could explain some of the features of the boundaries separating the inner core hemispheres. The depth shift of the boundaries, observed by some authors, seems unlikely to be modeled by a fast translation but could be produced by slow translation associated with superrotation.

  9. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  10. GrowYourIC: an open access Python code to facilitate comparison between kinematic models of inner core evolution and seismic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasbleis, M.; Day, E. A.; Waszek, L.

    2017-12-01

    The complex nature of inner core structure has been well-established from seismic studies, with heterogeneities at various length scales, both radially and laterally. Despite this, no geodynamic model has successfully explained all of the observed seismic features. To facilitate comparisons between seismic observations and geodynamic models of inner core growth we have developed a new, open access Python tool - GrowYourIC - that allows users to compare models of inner core structure. The code allows users to simulate different evolution models of the inner core, with user-defined rates of inner core growth, translation and rotation. Once the user has "grown" an inner core with their preferred parameters they can then explore the effect of "their" inner core's evolution on the relative age and growth rate in different regions of the inner core. The code will convert these parameters into seismic properties using either built-in mineral physics models, or user-supplied ones that calculate these seismic properties with users' own preferred mineralogical models. The 3D model of isotropic inner core properties can then be used to calculate the predicted seismic travel time anomalies for a random, or user-specified, set of seismic ray paths through the inner core. A real dataset of inner core body-wave differential travel times is included for the purpose of comparing user-generated models of inner core growth to actual observed travel time anomalies in the top 100km of the inner core. Here, we explore some of the possibilities of our code. We investigate the effect of the limited illumination of the inner core by seismic waves on the robustness of kinematic model interpretation. We test the impact on seismic differential travel time observations of several kinematic models of inner core growth: fast lateral translation; slow differential growth; and inner core super-rotation. We find that a model of inner core evolution incorporating both differential growth and slow

  11. Levels of some heavy metals and nutritional compositions of cocoa beans from selected cocoa- growing areas in Ashanti and Western regions of Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asante, Nnuro William

    2013-03-01

    In this study, the levels of six heavy metals namely: cadmium, lead, copper, manganese, iron and zinc were determined in cocoa beans from some cocoa-growing areas in the Western and Ashanti Regions of Ghana using atomic absorption spectroscopy. The metal levels in the cocoa beans from the Western Region, expressed in mg/ kg varied from 0.045 to 0.066 with mean value of 0.054 for cadmium, from 0.013 to 0.030 with mean value of 0.020 for lead, from 46.47 to 55.17 with mean value of 51.98 for copper, from 48.36 to 64.65 with mean value of 55.18 for manganese, from 43.80 to 53.11 with the mean value of 47.51 iron and from 43.04 to 52.06 with the mean value of 48.29 for zinc. Those of Ashanti Region ranged from 0.050 to 0.065 with the mean value of 0.056 for cadmium, from 0.014 to 0.020 with the mean value of 0.017 for lead, from 47.43 to 54.17 with the mean value of 49.10 for copper, from 47.15 to 57.34 with the mean value of 54.62 for manganese, from 50.23 to 63.87 with the mean value of 54.63 for iron and from 53.02 to 58.71 with the mean value of 56.49 for zinc. Upon proximate analyses of four of the samples chosen at random (two samples from each region), it was found that all the samples were of high fat and carbohydrate content. The percentages of fat were 45.52%, 43.85%, 45.57% and 36.72% in samples from Kasapen, Asampaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Those of carbohydrates were 32.56%, 32.08%, 31.62% and 42.88% in cocoa samples from Kasapen, Asempaneye, Bekwai and Juaso respectively. Levels of proteins were 14.34%, 13.97%, 13.74% and 13.91% in the samples from the towns as listed in the order above. The samples from Kasapen in the Western Region gave 3.15%, 3.40% and 1.03% for moisture, ash and fibre contents respectively. The moisture, ash and fibre content in samples from Asempaneye also in the Western Region were 4.39%, 3.69% and 1.02% respectively. Samples from Bekwai in the Ashanti Region gave 4.46%, 3.52% and1.09% for moisture, ash and fibre contents

  12. Ecological niche modeling for visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Bahia, Brazil, using genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction and growing degree day-water budget analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prixia Nieto

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Two predictive models were developed within a geographic information system using Genetic Algorithm Rule-Set Prediction (GARP and the growing degree day (GDD-water budget (WB concept to predict the distribution and potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis (VL in the State of Bahia, Brazil. The objective was to define the environmental suitability of the disease as well as to obtain a deeper understanding of the eco-epidemiology of VL by associating environmental and climatic variables with disease prevalence. Both the GARP model and the GDDWB model, using different analysis approaches and with the same human prevalence database, predicted similar distribution and abundance patterns for the Lutzomyia longipalpis-Leishmania chagasi system in Bahia. High and moderate prevalence sites for VL were significantly related to areas of high and moderate risk prediction by: (i the area predicted by the GARP model, depending on the number of pixels that overlapped among eleven annual model years, and (ii the number of potential generations per year that could be completed by the Lu. longipalpis-L. chagasi system by GDD-WB analysis. When applied to the ecological zones of Bahia, both the GARP and the GDD-WB prediction models suggest that the highest VL risk is in the interior region of the state, characterized by a semi-arid and hot climate known as Caatinga, while the risk in the Bahia interior forest and the Cerrado ecological regions is lower. The Bahia coastal forest was predicted to be a low-risk area due to the unsuitable conditions for the vector and VL transmission.

  13. Exactly solvable models of growing interfaces and lattice gases: the Arcetri models, ageing and logarithmic sub-ageing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durang, Xavier; Henkel, Malte

    2017-12-01

    Motivated by an analogy with the spherical model of a ferromagnet, the three Arcetri models are defined. They present new universality classes, either for the growth of interfaces, or else for lattice gases. They are distinct from the common Edwards-Wilkinson and Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality classes. Their non-equilibrium evolution can be studied by the exact computation of their two-time correlators and responses. In both interpretations, the first model has a critical point in any dimension and shows simple ageing at and below criticality. The exact universal exponents are found. The second and third model are solved at zero temperature, in one dimension, where both show logarithmic sub-ageing, of which several distinct types are identified. Physically, the second model describes a lattice gas and the third model describes interface growth. A clear physical picture on the subsequent time and length scales of the sub-ageing process emerges.

  14. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  15. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  16. Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, Sergii; Franch, Belen; Vermote, Eric; Roger, Jean-Claude; Becker-Reshef, Inbal; Justice, Christopher; Kussul, Nataliia

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

  17. Variation in agricultural CO2 fluxes during the growing season, collected from more than ten eddy covariance towers in the Mississippi Delta Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runkle, B.; Suvocarev, K.; Reba, M. L.; Novick, K. A.; White, P.; Anapalli, S.; Locke, M. A.; Rigby, J.; Bhattacharjee, J.

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture is unique as an anthropogenic activity that plays both a large role in carbon and water cycling and whose management activities provide a key opportunity for responses to climate change. It is therefore especially crucial to bring field observations into the modeling community, test remote sensing products, encourage policy debate, and enable carbon offsets markets that generate revenue and fund climate-smart activities. The accurate measurement of agricultural CO2 exchange - both primary productivity and ecosystem respiration - in concert with evapotranspiration provides crucial information on agro-ecosystem functioning and improves our predictive capacity for estimating the impacts of climate change. In this study we report field measurements from more than 10 eddy covariance towers in the Lower Mississippi River Basin taken during the summer months of 2016. Many towers, some recently deployed, are being aggregated into a regional network known as Delta-Flux, which will ultimately include 15-20 towers by 2017. Set in and around the Mississippi Delta Region within Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, the network will collect flux, micrometeorological, and crop yield data in order to construct estimates of regional CO2 exchange. These time-series data are gap-filled using statistical and process-based models to generate estimates of summer CO2 flux. The tower network is comprised of sites representing widespread agriculture production, including rice, cotton, corn, soybean, and sugarcane; intensively managed pine forest; and bottomland hardwood forest. Unique experimental production practices are represented in the network and include restricted water use, bioenergy, and by-product utilization. Several towers compose multi-field sites testing innovative irrigation or management practices. Current mapping of agricultural carbon exchange - based on land cover layers and fixed crop emission factors - suggests an unconstrained carbon flux estimate in this

  18. Evaluation of models for prediction of the energy value of diets for growing cattle from the chemical composition of feeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Batista Sampaio

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate and evaluate the contents of apparently digestible fractions of crude protein, ether extract and non-fibrous carbohydrates, the digestible fraction of the neutral detergent fiber and the content of total digestible nutrients (TDN from the chemical composition of feeds in growing cattle fed different diets. Fourteen F1 Red Angus × Nellore young bulls with average age and weight of 12 months and 287±36 kg were used. Animals were fed elephant grass silage, corn silage or signal grass hay, with or without supplementation of 200 g concentrate per kg of the total diet. The experiment consisted of two 13-days periods, in which the concentrate supplementation was crossed over animals. The values of digestible fractions and the TDN content observed were obtained based on total collection of feces. Several sub-models applied to the different digestible fractions were assessed and discussed. Estimates of the TDN content in the diet were produced from the combination of sub-models applied to the individual digestible fractions. The TDN content was more efficiently predicted from the sub-models proposed by Detmann et al. (2010 when biological procedures for the estimation of the undegradable fraction of the protein and the potentially degradable fraction of the neutral detergent fiber were considered.

  19. Forest growth modeling in the Southern Region, National Forest System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belcher, D.M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses an attempt to combine individual tree growth models and stand level growth models currently available for the Region into one computer program. Operation of the program is explained and growth models are included

  20. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-01-01

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

  1. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  2. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): CNMI: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)...

  3. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Samoa: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at approximately 3-km resolution....

  4. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km...

  5. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 7-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the main Hawaiian islands at approximately 4-km resolution. While...

  6. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu: Data Assimilating

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly data assimilating hindcast for the region surrounding the island of Oahu at approximately 1-km resolution....

  7. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Oahu South Shore

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 2-day, 3-hourly forecast for the region surrounding the south shore of the island of Oahu at approximately 200-m resolution....

  8. Regional planning and modelling of nitrate leaching in Denmark using DaisyGIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veihe, Anita; Jensen, Niels H.; Boegh, Eva

    Spatial deterministic simulation models such as DaisyGIS are increasingly being used for decision-making in European planning and there is a growing interest in using DaisyGIS as an administrative tool at the regional level in Denmark. This study evaluates the use of Daisy-GIS for nitrate leaching...... assessments based on nitrate leaching experiments carried out at the Marbjerg experimental site at Roskilde University....

  9. REGIONAL FIRST ORDER PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY FLOWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceyhun ÖZÇELİK

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available First order periodic autoregressive models is of mostly used models in modeling of time dependency of hydrological flow processes. In these models, periodicity of the correlogram is preserved as well as time dependency of processes. However, the parameters of these models, namely, inter-monthly lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients may be often estimated erroneously from short samples, since they are statistics of high order moments. Therefore, to constitute a regional model may be a solution that can produce more reliable and decisive estimates, and derive models and model parameters in any required point of the basin considered. In this study, definitions of homogeneous region for lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients are made; five parametric and non parametric models are proposed to set regional models of lag-1 autocorrelation coefficients. Regional models are applied on 30 stream flow gauging stations in Seyhan and Ceyhan basins, and tested by criteria of relative absolute bias, simple and relative root of mean square errors.

  10. Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES) for quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of multiple sclerosis: intra- and inter-observer agreement variability: a comparison with manual contouring method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parodi, Roberto C.; Sardanelli, Francesco; Renzetti, Paolo; Rosso, Elisabetta; Losacco, Caterina; Ferrari, Alessandra; Levrero, Fabrizio; Pilot, Alberto; Inglese, Matilde; Mancardi, Giovanni L.

    2002-01-01

    Lesion area measurement in multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the key points in evaluating the natural history and in monitoring the efficacy of treatments. This study was performed to check the intra- and inter-observer agreement variability of a locally developed Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES), comparing them to those obtained using manual contouring (MC). From routine 1.5-T MRI study of clinically definite multiple sclerosis patients, 36 lesions seen on proton-density-weighted images (PDWI) and 36 enhancing lesion on Gd-DTPA-BMA-enhanced T1-weighted images (Gd-T1WI) were randomly chosen and were evaluated by three observers. The mean range of lesion size was 9.9-536.0 mm 2 on PDWI and 3.6-57.2 mm 2 on Gd-T1WI. The median intra- and inter-observer agreement were, respectively, 97.1 and 90.0% using GRES on PDWI, 81.0 and 70.0% using MC on PDWI, 88.8 and 80.0% using GRES on Gd-T1WI, and 85.8 and 70.0% using MC on Gd-T1WI. The intra- and inter-observer agreements were significantly greater for GRES compared with MC (P<0.0001 and P=0.0023, respectively) for PDWI, while no difference was found between GRES an MC for Gd-T1WI. The intra-observer variability for GRES was significantly lower on both PDWI (P=0.0001) and Gd-T1WI (P=0.0067), whereas for MC the same result was found only for PDWI (P=0.0147). These data indicate that GRES reduces both the intra- and the inter-observer variability in assessing the area of MS lesions on PDWI and may prove useful in multicentre studies. (orig.)

  11. Spatial variability in soil properties and diagnostic leaf characteristics of apple (Malus domestica) in apple growing region of Dheerkot Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjumend, T.; Abbasi, M. K.

    2016-01-01

    Scientific information on the spatial variability in soil properties and nutrient status is important for understanding ecosystem processes and evaluating agricultural land management practices. This study aims to characterize the spatial variation of selected soil properties and the nutrient status of ten representative sites of apple growing region, and also to evaluate the nutrient contents of apple leaves of the same sites from sub-division Dheerkot, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, (AJK) Pakistan. The sampling sites were: Hill, Chamankot, Chamyati-1 (upper), Chamyati-2 (lower), Dheerkot, Kotli, Karry, Sanghar, Neelabut, and Hanschoki. The treatments included; sites = 10; depths = 04 (0-15, 15-30, 30-45, and 45-60 cm) with 3 replications. Results indicated that texture of all the sites (except one) were loam or clay loam having silt and clay the dominant soil fractions. The soils were neutral to slightly alkaline, pH ranging from 7.2 to 8.3, non-saline, and moderately calcareous (CaCO/sub 3/ 0.00-8.97 percent). The nutrient index (NI) value for soil organic matter (SOM), available P and K were 2.5, 1.5 and 2.1 showing high, medium, and medium range, respectively. The concentration of AB-DTPA extractable Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn showed high levels of Fe (10.2-16.8 mg kg-1) and Mn (0.90-2.71 mg kg/sup -1/) while Zn (0.42-2.31 mg kg/sup -1/) deficiency was observed in few samples. All the sites were severely deficient in Cu concentration (1.35-2.05 mg kg/sup -1/). The diagnosis of apples leaves indicated that none of the samples was deficient in N (2.30-3.49 percent) and P (0.13-0.33 percent) while out of ten sites, nine sites showed severe deficiency of K (0.85-1.40 percent). The study demonstrated a significant variation in different physico-chemical properties of the soils collected from the same ecological region. In order to overcome the deficiency of some of the nutrients observed both in soil and plant samples, proper fertilization especially the use of organic manures is

  12. Sarcopenia and piscines: the case for indeterminate-growing fish as unique genetic model organisms in aging and longevity research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob M Froehlich

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sarcopenia and dynapenia pose significant problems for the aged, especially as life expectancy rises in developed countries. Current therapies are marginally efficacious at best, and barriers to breakthroughs in treatment may result from currently employed model organisms. Here, we argue that the use of indeterminate-growing teleost fish in skeletal muscle aging research may lead to therapeutic advancements not possible with current mammalian models. Evidence from a comparative approach utilizing the subfamily Danioninae suggests that the indeterminate growth paradigm of many teleosts arises from adult muscle stem cells with greater proliferative capacity, even in spite of smaller progenitor populations. We hypothesize that paired-box transcription factors, Pax3/7, are involved with this enhanced self-renewal and that prolonged expression of these factors may allow some fish species to escape, or at least forestall, sarcopenia/dynapenia. Future research efforts should focus on the experimental validation of these genes as key factors in indeterminate growth, both in the context of muscle stem cell proliferation and in prevention of skeletal muscle senescence.

  13. Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timur Rustamovich Gareev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

  14. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  15. Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Suryawati

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

  16. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  17. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  18. Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.

    2018-01-01

    and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....

  19. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  20. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  1. Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model: Setting the Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  2. "Special Issue": Regional Dimensions of the Triple Helix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todeva, Emanuela; Danson, Mike

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces the rationale for the special issue and its contributions, which bridge the literature on regional development and the Triple Helix model. The concept of the Triple Helix at the sub-national, and specifically regional, level is established and examined, with special regard to regional economic development founded on…

  3. Measuring and modeling three-dimensional water uptake of a growing faba bean (Vicia faba) within a soil column

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Katrin; Koebernick, Nicolai; Kerkhofs, Elien; Vanderborght, Jan; Javaux, Mathieu; Vetterlein, Doris; Vereecken, Harry

    2014-05-01

    A faba bean was grown in a column filled with a sandy soil, which was initially close to saturation and then subjected to a single drying cycle of 30 days. The column was divided in four hydraulically separated compartments using horizontal paraffin layers. Paraffin is impermeable to water but penetrable by roots. Thus by growing deeper, the roots can reach compartments that still contain water. The root architecture was measured every second day by X-ray CT. Transpiration rate, soil matric potential in four different depths, and leaf area were measured continously during the experiment. To investigate the influence of the partitioning of available soil water in the soil column on water uptake, we used R-SWMS, a fully coupled root and soil water model [1]. We compared a scenario with and without the split layers and investigated the influence on root xylem pressure. The detailed three-dimensional root architecture was obtained by reconstructing binarized root images manually with a virtual reality system, located at the Juelich Supercomputing Centre [2]. To verify the properties of the root system, we compared total root lengths, root length density distributions and root surface with estimations derived from Minkowski functionals [3]. In a next step, knowing the change of root architecture in time, we could allocate an age to each root segment and use this information to define age dependent root hydraulic properties that are required to simulate water uptake for the growing root system. The scenario with the split layers showed locally much lower pressures than the scenario without splits. Redistribution of water within the unrestricted soil column led to a more uniform distribution of water uptake and lowers the water stress in the plant. However, comparison of simulated and measured pressure heads with tensiometers suggested that the paraffin layers were not perfectly hydraulically isolating the different soil layers. We could show compensation efficiency of

  4. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. McKenzie; S.M. O' Neill; N. Larkin; R.A. Norheim

    2006-01-01

    Visibility impairment from regional haze is a significant problem throughout the continental United States. A substantial portion of regional haze is produced by smoke from prescribed and wildland fires. Here we describe the integration of four simulation models, an array of GIS raster layers, and a set of algorithms for fire-danger calculations into a modeling...

  5. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina, GRADEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Public financing of infrastructure proved under performing at uneconomic prices, and because of political interference in the management of funds, understanding the problem leading to the adoption of private funding variant, an effective way of private funding being the financing of the project. Project financing is a concept that assessed by means of financing a specific technique. In this context, those granting funds usually through loans typically are only interested in cash flows and project profit, which are a source of funds for repayment of loans; they are less interested in the creditworthiness of those employed in the project (organizations, governments, communities and so on. This approach has led to the emergence of new ways of financing projects, new types of projects, such as regional and rural development.

  6. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  7. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  8. Uncertainty Categorization, Modeling, and Management for Regional Water Supply Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; AlSaati, A.; Alhassan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from growing demands, variability in supply and a changing climate. Short-term variation in water availability and demand; long-term uncertainty in climate, groundwater storage, and sectoral competition for water; and varying stakeholder perspectives on the impacts of water shortages make it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they are the result of stochastic variation or epistemic uncertainty, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are deep uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. We develop a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, sensitivity analysis for deep uncertainty and Bayesian decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. We apply this framework to two contrasting case studies - drought preparedness in Melbourne, Australia and fossil groundwater depletion in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - to assess the impacts of different types of uncertainty on infrastructure decisions. Melbourne's water supply system relies on surface water, which is impacted by natural variation in rainfall, and a market-based system for managing water rights. Our results show that small, flexible investment increases can mitigate shortage risk considerably at reduced cost. Riyadh, by contrast, relies primarily on desalination for municipal use and fossil groundwater for agriculture, and a centralized planner makes allocation decisions. Poor regional groundwater measurement makes it difficult to know when groundwater pumping will become uneconomical, resulting in epistemic uncertainty. However, collecting more data can reduce the uncertainty, suggesting the need for different uncertainty modeling and management strategies in Riyadh than in Melbourne. We will categorize the two systems and propose appropriate

  9. Climatological variability in modeling of long-term regional transport and deposition of air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    In a growing number of emission policy analyses, regulatory proceedings, and cost/benefit assessments, numerical models of long-range transport and deposition of air pollutants have been exercised to estimate source-receptor (S-R) relationships--for the particular meteorological conditions input to the model. The representativeness of the meteorological conditions, or the variability of the model estimates with climatological input from different years or corresponding seasons from different years, is seldom evaluated. Here, two full years (1980 and 1981) of meteorological data, as well as data from January and July of 1978, are used in the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model (Shannon, 1981), one of the eight Memorandum of Intent (MOI) models, to estimate deposition for the S-R matrix combination of eleven source regions and nine receptors used in the MOI reports. (S-R matrices of dimensions 40 by 9 were also examined in the MOI reports.) Improvements in the ASTRAP model and in the emission inventory since the earlier work require recalculation of the two-month 1978 simulation in order for the comparison to isolate the effect of meteorological variability. The source regions are listed, and the receptor regions are provide. For completeness, an additional source region, the western states and provinces, has been added, as well as a total for the 48 contiguous states and 10 provinces. 4 references, 9 tables

  10. Viking Disruptions or Growing Integration?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sindbæk, Søren Michael

    2012-01-01

    Long-distance communication has emerged as a particular focus for archaeological exploration using network theory, analysis, and modelling. Initial attempts to adapt methods from social network analysis to archaeological data have, however, struggled to produce decisive results. This paper...... demonstrates how formal network analysis can be combined with a contextual reading of evidence relating to a long-distance communication network in the past. A study of the combined distributions of ten vessel types in 152 settlement sites from the 10th century suggests the outline of the core structure...... of the network. The model implies that 10th century long-distance exchange in the North Sea region featured long-distance links equal to those of the Carolingian emporia trade, and represented a growth in terms of new axes of integration, above all the growing links between the Scandinavian Peninsula...

  11. A model established of a 'Embryo' bubble growing-up some visible bubble in bubble chamber and its primary theory calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Zipiao; Sheng Xiangdong

    2006-01-01

    A model of a 'embryo' bubble growing up a visible bubble in the bubble chamber is established. Through primary theory calculation it is shown that the 'embryo' bubble is not only absorbing quantity of heat, but also some molecules get into the 'embryo' bubble from its environment. It is explained reasonably that the radius of bubbles in bubble camber is different for the same energies of neutrons and proton. The track of neutron in bubble camber is long and thin, and the track of proton in bubble camber is wide and short. It is explained reasonably that the bubble radius of the incident particles with more charges which there are the same energies will be wider than that of the incident particles with less charges in the track. It is also explained reasonably that there are a little different radius of the bubbles of a track at the some region. It can be predicted theoretically that there should be big bubbles to burst when incident particles enter the bubble chamber at first. The sensitivity and the detective efficiency of bubble camber can be enhanced by choosing appropriate work matter. (authors)

  12. Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

    2005-01-01

    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

  13. Analysis and forecasting of profit by using simulation models for growing pea in conventional and organic plant production in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bean is the third most important food legume crop of the world after soybean and groundnuts; it provides an important source of dietary proteins, carbohydrates, minerals and fiber essential in human nutrition worldwide. A high, per capita bean consumption of 13 to 40 kg yr-1 was observed in developing countries. In EU developed countries, market of the organic products is growing in average 10 % per annum, but this growth has not been followed by production growth and this is the chance for Serbian products. Organic bean growing enables the producers a higher profit. Expenses in organic production are higher (2170 EUR/ha than those in conventional bean production (1825 EUR/ha. However, net profit in the organic production was estimated to 1440 EUR/ha, while the profit in the conventional concept was 315 EUR/ha. Also, profitability rate and the economic efficiency coefficient had higher values when growing bean in organic concept.

  14. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  15. Glistening-region model for multipath studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Gordon W.; Chow, Winston C.

    1998-07-01

    The goal is to achieve a model of radar sea reflection with improved fidelity that is amenable to practical implementation. The geometry of reflection from a wavy surface is formulated. The sea surface is divided into two components: the smooth `chop' consisting of the longer wavelengths, and the `roughness' of the short wavelengths. Ordinary geometric reflection from the chop surface is broadened by the roughness. This same representation serves both for forward scatter and backscatter (sea clutter). The `Road-to-Happiness' approximation, in which the mean sea surface is assumed cylindrical, simplifies the reflection geometry for low-elevation targets. The effect of surface roughness is assumed to make the sea reflection coefficient depending on the `Deviation Angle' between the specular and the scattering directions. The `specular' direction is that into which energy would be reflected by a perfectly smooth facet. Assuming that the ocean waves are linear and random allows use of Gaussian statistics, greatly simplifying the formulation by allowing representation of the sea chop by three parameters. An approximation of `low waves' and retention of the sea-chop slope components only through second order provides further simplification. The simplifying assumptions make it possible to take the predicted 2D ocean wave spectrum into account in the calculation of sea-surface radar reflectivity, to provide algorithms for support of an operational system for dealing with target tracking in the presence of multipath. The product will be of use in simulated studies to evaluate different trade-offs in alternative tracking schemes, and will form the basis of a tactical system for ship defense against low flyers.

  16. Flow modelling of a newtonian fluid by two regions- the region of pure fluid and porous region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, R.; Gama, R.M.S. da

    1983-01-01

    A model of flow with two regions is presented using mixture theory. One region contains only pure fluid and the other a mixture of fluid and porous rigid solid. Compatibility conditons on the pure fluid-mixture interface are carefully discussed. The theory is used to solve a problem of a flow induced by pressure gradient and helicoidal motion of an impermeable cylinder on two rings one of pure fluid and another of mixture. (Author) [pt

  17. The regional climate model RegCM3 performances over several regions and climate regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, E.; Rauscher, S.; Gao, X.; Giorgi, F.; Im, E. S.; Mariotti, L.; Seth, A.; Sylla, M. B.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate models are more and more needed to provide high resolution regional climate information in climate impact studies. Water availability in a future scenario is the main request of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation purposes. However precipitation changes are unlikely to be as spatially coherent as temperature changes and they are closely related to the regional model itself. In addition model skill varies regionally. An example of several ICTP regional climate model (RegCM3) simulations is reported over China, Korea, Africa, Central and Southern America, Europe and Australia. Over China, Australia, and Korea the regional model improves the simulation compared to the driving GCM when compared with CRU observations. In China, for example, the higher resolution of the regional model inhibits the penetration of the monsoon precipitation front from the southern slope of the Himalaya onto the Tibetan Plateau. In Korea the nested domain simulation (20 km) shows an encouraging performance with regard to capturing extreme precipitation episodes and the finer spatial distribution reflects the detailed geography of the Korean Peninsula. Over South America, RegCM captures the annual cycle of precipitation over Northeast Brazil and the South American Monsoon region, although the monsoon onset occurs too early in the model. Precipitation over the Amazon is not well captured, with too little precipitation associated with weak easterlies and reduced moisture transport into the interior of the continent. RegCM simulates the annual cycle of precipitation over Central America and the Caribbean fairly well; in particular, the complex spatial distribution of the Mid-Summer Drought, a decrease in precipitation that occurs during the middle of the rainy season in July and August, is better captured by RegCM than by the GCM. In addition, RegCM simulates the strength and position of the Caribbean low level jet, a mesoscale feature related to precipitation anomalies

  18. Effective single scattering albedo estimation using regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tesfaye, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, by modifying the optical parameterization of Regional Climate model (RegCM), the authors have computed and compared the Effective Single-Scattering Albedo (ESSA) which is a representative of VIS spectral region. The arid, semi...

  19. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko; Steyn, Douw G.

    2011-01-01

    formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  4. Enhancing Infant Mental Health Using a Capacity-Building Model: A Case Study of a Process Evaluation of the "Ready, Steady, Grow" Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Farrelly, Christine; Guerin, Suzanne; Victory, Gerard

    2017-01-01

    Infant mental health (IMH) is best promoted through a continuum of services underpinned by strong service capacity. However, service providers often lack fundamental IMH knowledge and skills. Using the Ready, Steady, Grow (RSG) initiative as a case study of a capacity-building model (P., Hawe, L., King, M., Noort, C., Jordens, & B., Llyod,…

  5. Ecosystem-management-based Management Models of Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation and Its Eco-economic Benefits Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The paper expounded the basic concept and principles of ecosystem management,and analyzed the state and trend of industrial plantation ecosystem management in other countries.Based on the analysis of typical case studies,the eco-economic benefits were evaluated for the management models of fast-growing and high-yield plantations.

  6. Growing a market economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.

    1997-09-01

    This report presents a microsimulation model of a transition economy. Transition is defined as the process of moving from a state-enterprise economy to a market economy. The emphasis is on growing a market economy starting from basic microprinciples. The model described in this report extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen, a new agent-based model that is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories on a massively parallel Paragon computer. Aspen is significantly different from traditional models of the economy. Aspen`s emphasis on disequilibrium growth paths, its analysis based on evolution and emergent behavior rather than on a mechanistic view of society, and its use of learning algorithms to simulate the behavior of some agents rather than an assumption of perfect rationality make this model well-suited for analyzing economic variables of interest from transition economies. Preliminary results from several runs of the model are included.

  7. Regional water resources management in the Andean region with numerical models and satellite remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menenti, M.; Mulders, C.W.B.

    1999-01-01

    This report describes the development and adaptation of distributed numerical simulation models of hydrological processes in complex watersheds typical of the Andean region. These distributed models take advantage of the synoptic capabilities of sensors on-board satellites and GIS procedures have

  8. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  9. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  10. Growing an Emerging Research University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birx, Donald L.; Anderson-Fletcher, Elizabeth; Whitney, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    The emerging research college or university is one of the most formidable resources a region has to reinvent and grow its economy. This paper is the first of two that outlines a process of building research universities that enhance regional technology development and facilitate flexible networks of collaboration and resource sharing. Although the…

  11. Transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotze, A A

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the ..delta../sub 3/ statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed.

  12. The transitional region of phase transitions in nuclear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotze, A.A.

    1988-01-01

    The phase transition in an exactly solvable nuclear model, the Lipkin model, is scrutinised, first using Hartree-Fock methods or the plain mean flield approximation, and then using projected wave functions. It turns out that the plain mean field is not reliable in the transitional region. Although the projection methods give better resutls in the transitional region, it leads to spurious singularities. While the energy of the projection before variation is slightly better than its projection after variation counterpart, the perfomance of the wave function is considerably worse in the transitional region. The model's wave function undergoes dramatic changes in the transitional region. The mechanism that brings about these changes is studied within a model Hamiltonian that can reproduce the Lipkin model mathematically. It turns out that the numerous exceptional points found in the transitional region, bring about the change of the ground state wave function. Exceptional points are associated with level crossings in the complex plane. These level crossings can be seen as level repulsions in the spectrum. Level repulsion and a sensitive dependence of the system on some external parameter are characteristics of chaotic behaviour. These two features are found in the transitional region of the Lipkin model. In order to study chaos, one has to resort to a statistical analysis. A measure of the chaotic behaviour of systems, the Δ 3 statistic, is introduced. The results show that the Lipkin model is harmonic, even in the transitional region. For the Lipkin model the exceptional points are regularly distributed in the complex plane. In a total chaotic system the points would be randomly distributed

  13. Cancer cells growing on perfused 3D collagen model produced higher reactive oxygen species level and were more resistant to cisplatin compared to the 2D model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingxi; Zhang, Zijiang; Liu, Yupeng; Cui, Zhanfeng; Zhang, Tongcun; Li, Zhaohui; Ma, Wenjian

    2018-03-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) collagen scaffold models, due to their ability to mimic the tissue and organ structure in vivo, have received increasing interest in drug discovery and toxicity evaluation. In this study, we developed a perfused 3D model and studied cellular response to cytotoxic drugs in comparison with traditional 2D cell cultures as evaluated by cancer drug cisplatin. Cancer cells grown in perfused 3D environments showed increased levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production compared to the 2D culture. As determined by growth analysis, cells in the 3D culture, after forming a spheroid, were more resistant to the cancer drug cisplatin compared to that of the 2D cell culture. In addition, 3D culturing cells showed elevated level of ROS, indicating a physiological change or the formation of a microenvironment that resembles tumor cells in vivo. These data revealed that cellular response to drugs for cells growing in 3D environments are dramatically different from that of 2D cultured cells. Thus, the perfused 3D collagen scaffold model we report here might be a potentially very useful tool for drug analysis.

  14. Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

    2000-01-01

    A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

  15. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  16. Modelling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales: Present State and Future Prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Except for frozen water in ice and glaciers, groundwater is the world's largest distributed store of freshwater and has strategic importance to global food and water security. In this paper, the most recent advances quantifying groundwater depletion (GWD) are comprehensively reviewed. This paper critically evaluates the recently advanced modeling approaches estimating GWD at regional and global scales, and the evidence of feedbacks to the Earth system including sea-level rise associated with GWD. Finally, critical challenges and opportunities in the use of groundwater are identified for the adaption to growing food demand and uncertain climate.

  17. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  18. MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. N. Kikkas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

  19. Parameters of oscillation generation regions in open star cluster models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danilov, V. M.; Putkov, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    We determine the masses and radii of central regions of open star cluster (OCL) models with small or zero entropy production and estimate the masses of oscillation generation regions in clustermodels based on the data of the phase-space coordinates of stars. The radii of such regions are close to the core radii of the OCL models. We develop a new method for estimating the total OCL masses based on the cluster core mass, the cluster and cluster core radii, and radial distribution of stars. This method yields estimates of dynamical masses of Pleiades, Praesepe, and M67, which agree well with the estimates of the total masses of the corresponding clusters based on proper motions and spectroscopic data for cluster stars.We construct the spectra and dispersion curves of the oscillations of the field of azimuthal velocities v φ in OCL models. Weak, low-amplitude unstable oscillations of v φ develop in cluster models near the cluster core boundary, and weak damped oscillations of v φ often develop at frequencies close to the frequencies of more powerful oscillations, which may reduce the non-stationarity degree in OCL models. We determine the number and parameters of such oscillations near the cores boundaries of cluster models. Such oscillations points to the possible role that gradient instability near the core of cluster models plays in the decrease of the mass of the oscillation generation regions and production of entropy in the cores of OCL models with massive extended cores.

  20. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  1. Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice

    2018-01-01

    We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.

  2. Fused cerebral organoids model interactions between brain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagley, Joshua A; Reumann, Daniel; Bian, Shan; Lévi-Strauss, Julie; Knoblich, Juergen A

    2017-07-01

    Human brain development involves complex interactions between different regions, including long-distance neuronal migration or formation of major axonal tracts. Different brain regions can be cultured in vitro within 3D cerebral organoids, but the random arrangement of regional identities limits the reliable analysis of complex phenotypes. Here, we describe a coculture method combining brain regions of choice within one organoid tissue. By fusing organoids of dorsal and ventral forebrain identities, we generate a dorsal-ventral axis. Using fluorescent reporters, we demonstrate CXCR4-dependent GABAergic interneuron migration from ventral to dorsal forebrain and describe methodology for time-lapse imaging of human interneuron migration. Our results demonstrate that cerebral organoid fusion cultures can model complex interactions between different brain regions. Combined with reprogramming technology, fusions should offer researchers the possibility to analyze complex neurodevelopmental defects using cells from neurological disease patients and to test potential therapeutic compounds.

  3. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  4. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

  5. NON-LINEAR MODELING OF THE RHIC INTERACTION REGIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    TOMAS, R.; FISCHER, W.; JAIN, A.; LUO, Y.; PILAT, F.

    2004-01-01

    For RHIC's collision lattices the dominant sources of transverse non-linearities are located in the interaction regions. The field quality is available for most of the magnets in the interaction regions from the magnetic measurements, or from extrapolations of these measurements. We discuss the implementation of these measurements in the MADX models of the Blue and the Yellow rings and their impact on beam stability

  6. Impacts of short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire on a ground nesting bird in the central hardwoods region of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, H. Tyler; Krementz, David G.

    2016-01-01

    Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or large

  7. Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Tyler Pittman

    Full Text Available Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha. This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated. Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%. We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter but did not select for small

  8. Impacts of Short-Rotation Early-Growing Season Prescribed Fire on a Ground Nesting Bird in the Central Hardwoods Region of North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, H Tyler; Krementz, David G

    2016-01-01

    Landscape-scale short-rotation early-growing season prescribed fire, hereafter prescribed fire, in upland hardwood forests represents a recent shift in management strategies across eastern upland forests. Not only does this strategy depart from dormant season to growing season prescriptions, but the strategy also moves from stand-scale to landscape-scale implementation (>1,000 ha). This being so, agencies are making considerable commitments in terms of time and resources to this management strategy, but the effects on wildlife in upland forests, especially those dominated by hardwood canopy species, are relatively unknown. We initiated our study to assess whether this management strategy affects eastern wild turkey reproductive ecology on the Ozark-St. Francis National Forest. We marked 67 wild turkey hens with Global Positioning System (GPS) Platform Transmitting Terminals in 2012 and 2013 to document exposure to prescribed fire, and estimate daily nest survival, nest success, and nest-site selection. We estimated these reproductive parameters in forest units managed with prescribed fire (treated) and units absent of prescribed fire (untreated). Of 60 initial nest attempts monitored, none were destroyed or exposed to prescribed fire because a majority of fires occurred early than a majority of the nesting activity. We found nest success was greater in untreated units than treated units (36.4% versus 14.6%). We did not find any habitat characteristic differences between successful and unsuccessful nest-sites. We found that nest-site selection criteria differed between treated and untreated units. Visual concealment and woody ground cover were common selection criteria in both treated and untreated units. However, in treated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with fewer small shrubs (20 cm DBH) but not in untreated units. In untreated units wild turkey selected nest-sites with more large shrubs (≥5 cm ground diameter) but did not select for small shrubs or

  9. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  10. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  11. Growing media [Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass F. Jacobs; Thomas D. Landis; Tara Luna

    2009-01-01

    Selecting the proper growing medium is one of the most important considerations in nursery plant production. A growing medium can be defined as a substance through which roots grow and extract water and nutrients. In native plant nurseries, a growing medium can consist of native soil but is more commonly an "artificial soil" composed of materials such as peat...

  12. The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

    With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

  13. Regional/Urban Air Quality Modeling Assessment over China Using the Models-3/CMAQ System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, J. S.; Jang, C. C.; Streets, D. G.; Li, Z.; Wang, L.; Zhang, Q.; Woo, J.; Wang, B.

    2004-12-01

    China is the world's most populous country with a fast growing economy that surges in energy comsumption. It has become the second largest energy consumer after the United States although the per capita level is much lower than those found in developed or developing countries. Air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai and has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze. The Models-3/CMAQ modeling application that has been conducted to simulate multi-pollutants in China is presented. The modeling domains cover East Asia (36-kmx36-km) including Japan, South Korea, Korea DPR, Indonesia, Thailand, India and Mongolia, East China (12-kmx12-km) and Beijing/Tianjing, Shanghai (4-kmx4-km). For this study, the Asian emission inventory based on the emission estimates of the year 2000 that supported the NASA TRACE-P program is used. However, the TRACE-P emission inventory was developed for a different purpose such as global modeling. TRACE-P emission inventory may not be practical in urban area. There is no China national emission inventory available. Therefore, TRACE-P emission inventory is used on the East Asia and East China domains. The 8 districts of Beijing and Shanghai local emissions inventory are used to replace TRACE-P in 4-km domains. The meteorological data for the Models-3/CMAQ run are extracted from MM5. The model simulation is performed during the period January 1-20 and July 1-20, 2001 that presented the winter and summer time for China areas. The preliminary model results are shown O3 concentrations are in the range of 80 -120 ppb in the urban area. Lower urban O3 concentrations are shown in Beijing areas, possibly due to underestimation of urban man-made VOC emissions in the TRACE-P inventory and local inventory. High PM2.5 (70ug/m3 in summer and 150ug/m3 in winter) were simulated over metropolitan & downwind areas with significant secondary constituents. More comprehensive

  14. Modelling Cr depletion under a growing Cr2O3 layer on austenitic stainless steel: the influence of grain boundary diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansson, Anette Nørgaard; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Dahl, Kristian Vinter

    2009-01-01

    according to a parabolic rate law as a consequence of rate limiting diffusion of Cr cations through the oxide layer; the retraction of the oxide/alloy interface associated with the removal of Cr atoms from the substrate is included in the calculations. Numerically, the movement of the oxide/alloy interface......The oxidation behaviour of austenitic stainless steels in the temperature range 723–1173K is strongly influenced by the grain size of the oxidizing alloy. In this work the evolution of the concentration profiles of Cr, Ni and Fe in the substrate below a growing Cr2O3 layer is simulated...... with a Fisher-type numerical model, which takes both volume and grain boundary diffusion into consideration. The model is based on a two-dimensional control volume-based solution of Fick’s 2nd law for multicomponent diffusion and includes crossterm diffusion coefficients. The oxide layer is assumed to grow...

  15. Transglycosylated Starch Improves Insulin Response and Alters Lipid and Amino Acid Metabolome in a Growing Pig Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Monica A; Zebeli, Qendrim; Eberspächer, Eva; Grüll, Dietmar; Molnar, Timea; Metzler-Zebeli, Barbara U

    2017-03-16

    Due to the functional properties and physiological effects often associated with chemically modified starches, significant interest lies in their development for incorporation in processed foods. This study investigated the effect of transglycosylated cornstarch (TGS) on blood glucose, insulin, and serum metabolome in the pre- and postprandial phase in growing pigs. Eight jugular vein-catheterized barrows were fed two diets containing 72% purified starch (waxy cornstarch (CON) or TGS). A meal tolerance test (MTT) was performed with serial blood sampling for glucose, insulin, lipids, and metabolome profiling. TGS-fed pigs had reduced postprandial insulin ( p phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins were generally increased ( p phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines were decreased ( p insulin and glucose metabolism, which may have caused the alterations in serum amino acid and phospholipid metabolome profiles.

  16. Application of remote sensing for analyzing climatic variation in the boreal and subarctic regions of Canada and for validating the Canadian Regional Climate Model; Application de la teledetection a l'analyse de la variabilite climatique des regions boreales et subarctiques du Canada et a la validation du modele regional canadien du climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fillol, E.J.

    2003-07-01

    This study examined climate variations over the past few decades as well as the tools used to model future climate. The study included an interpretation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) time series data at the continental spatial scale. Data collected over a period of two decades was used to study and monitor Canada's boreal ecosystem activity and to observe recent climatic change. The study involved the use of classical parameters associated with remote sensing in the visible and thermal infrared spectra for vegetation activity and land-surface temperatures. Problems associated with instrumental drift and inter-satellite adjustment were minimized by choosing indicators for the length of the growing season, annual growing degree-days and ecotone displacement. Climate variations over the past twenty years were compared with daily meteorological data of temperature, precipitation and snow cover. Rapid cycle climatic phenomena such as the El Nino and La Nina appear to have influenced the central region of Canada. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation also influenced the climate regime of Canada and annual growing degree-days. Indicators for vegetation activity and land-surface temperature suggest that a North-South disparity exists over Canada. A warming trend with an increased growing season was observed for the region north of the 55 parallel, while southern regions appear to be cooling. This study also used remote sensing to validate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) through a comparison of ground temperature values modelled by the CRCM with composite satellite temperatures. The results indicate a small under-estimation of the CRCM ground temperature during the summer due to an overestimation of the precipitation rate. It was concluded that climate models such as the CRCM are useful in making reliable predictions of future climate trends.

  17. MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borma Afrodita

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

  18. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  19. Long-wave forcing for regional atmospheric modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, H. von; Langenberg, H.; Feser, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    A new method, named 'spectral nudging', of linking a regional model to the driving large-scale model simulated or analyzed by a global model is proposed and tested. Spectral nudging is based on the idea that regional-scale climate statistics are conditioned by the interplay between continental-scale atmospheric conditions and such regional features as marginal seas and mountain ranges. Following this 'downscaling' idea, the regional model is forced to satisfy not only boundary conditions, possibly in a boundary sponge region, but also large-scale flow conditions inside the integration area. We demonstrate that spectral nudging succeeds in keeping the simulated state close to the driving state at large scales, while generating smaller-scale features. We also show that the standard boundary forcing technique in current use allows the regional model to develop internal states conflicting with the large-scale state. It is concluded that spectral nudging may be seen as a suboptimal and indirect data assimilation technique. (orig.) [German] Eine neue Methode, genannt 'spektrales nudging', ein Regionalmodell an das durch ein Globalmodell simulierte grossskalige Antriebsfeld zu koppeln, wird vorgestellt und getestet. Das spektrale nudging basiert auf der Annahme, dass regionale Klimastatistik durch die Wechselwirkung zwischen dem kontinental-skaligen atmosphaerischen Zustand und regionalen Gegebenheiten, wie kleinere Seen und Gebirgszuege, bestimmt wird. Demnach muss das Regionalmodell nicht nur die Randbedingungen erfuellen, sondern auch die grossskaligen Zustaende innerhalb des Integrationsgebietes wiedergeben koennen. Wir zeigen, dass durch das spektrale nudging der grossskalige modellierte Zustand nahe an dem des Antriebsfeldes liegt, ohne die Modellierung regionaler Phaenomene zu beeintraechtigen. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass das Regionalmodell durch die zur Zeit benutzte Antriebstechnik ueber den Modellrand interne Felder produzieren kann

  20. Development of three dimensional ocean current model for coastal region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Takuya

    1999-12-01

    In order to study the migration behavior of radionuclides released into a coastal region around Japan, Princeton Ocean Model (POM) was introduced. This three-dimensional ocean current model was modified to be applied for oceanic simulations around Japan. This report describes the governing equations, numerical methods and model improvements. In addition, database system which is utilized for calculations and visualization system for graphical outputs are also described. Model simulation was carried out at off the area of Shimokita. Aomori-ken, Japan to investigate the effects of the boundary conditions on simulated results. (author)

  1. Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Günzel-Jensen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In e-business freemium business models have become legitiate. However, current research provides litte insight on how the free and premium offring should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fil this gap by investiatig how the property ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initil life-cycle stages – opportunity recognitin, market entry, and market exploitatin. We fid that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initil life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons of trial-and-error, learning, exploratin, legitiizatin and resource acquisitin. A freemium business model can also serve as a nascent business model, though without a sustainable monetiatin component, for fiding a sustainable business model through a series of dynamic adjustments. With our fidings we contribute to the business model literature in three ways: First, our empirical fidings show the many-sidedness of the component ‘free’ in freemium business models. Free users are of importance for network building, exploratin and exploitatin and growth over tie. Moreover, free users enable directly and indirectly further resource acquisitin. Second, while previous literature has taken a stati perspectie, we contribute by illustratig the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new to the literature.

  2. Evaluation of a regional chemistry transport model using a newly developed regional OMI NO2 retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlmann, G.; Lam, Y. F.; Cheung, H. M.; Hartl, A.; Fung, J. C. H.; Chan, P. W.; Wenig, M. O.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we evaluate a high-resolution chemistry transport model (CTM) (3 km x 3 km spatial resolution) with the new Hong Kong (HK) NO2 retrieval developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on-board the Aura satellite. The three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry was modelled in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China by the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system from October 2006 to January 2007. In the HK NO2 retrieval, tropospheric air mass factors (AMF) were recalculated using high-resolution ancillary parameters of surface reflectance, NO2 profile shapes and aerosol profiles of which the latter two were taken from the CMAQ simulation. We also tested four different aerosol parametrizations. Ground level measurements by the PRD Regional Air Quality Monitoring (RAQM) network were used as additional independent measurements. The HK NO2 retrieval increases the NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) by (+31 ± 38) %, when compared to NASA's standard product (SP2), and reduces the mean bias (MB) between satellite and ground measurements by 26 percentage points from -41 to -15 %. The correlation coefficient r is low for both satellite datasets (r = 0.35) due to the high spatial variability of NO2 concentrations. The correlation between CMAQ and the RAQM network is low (r ≈ 0.3) and the model underestimates the NO2 concentrations in the north-western model domain (Foshan and Guangzhou). We compared the CMAQ NO2 time series of the two main plumes with our regional OMI NO2 product. The model overestimates the NO2 VCDs by about 15 % in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while the correlation coefficient is satisfactory (r = 0.56). In Foshan and Guangzhou, the correlation is low (r = 0.37) and the model underestimates the VCDs strongly (MB = -40 %). In addition, we estimated that the OMI VCDs are also underestimated by about 10 to 20 % in Foshan and Guangzhou because of the influence of the model parameters on the AMF. In this study

  3. Model-based automatic generation of grasping regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloss, David A.

    1993-01-01

    The problem of automatically generating stable regions for a robotic end effector on a target object, given a model of the end effector and the object is discussed. In order to generate grasping regions, an initial valid grasp transformation from the end effector to the object is obtained based on form closure requirements, and appropriate rotational and translational symmetries are associated with that transformation in order to construct a valid, continuous grasping region. The main result of this algorithm is a list of specific, valid grasp transformations of the end effector to the target object, and the appropriate combinations of translational and rotational symmetries associated with each specific transformation in order to produce a continuous grasp region.

  4. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  5. Crustal structure and tectonic model of the Arctic region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrov, Oleg; Morozov, Andrey; Shokalsky, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new model of the crustal and tectonic structure of the Arctic region north of 60° N latitude, constrained as a part of the international Atlas of Geological Maps of the Circumpolar Arctic under the aegis of the Commission for the Geological Map of the World. The region is largely...... formed by (i) Archean-Paleoproterozoic shields and platforms, (ii) orogenic belts of the Neoproterozoic to the Late Mesozoic ages overlain by platform and basin sediments, (iii) Cenozoic rift structures formed in part as a consequence of seafloor spreading in the North East Atlantic Ocean...... and thickness of the sedimentary cover and presents tectonic regionalization based on 18 major crustal types (oceanic, transitional, and continental) recognized in the Arctic. A 7600. km-long crustal geotransect across the region illustrates the details of its crustal and tectonic structure. We discuss...

  6. On global and regional spectral evaluation of global geopotential models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustun, A; Abbak, R A

    2010-01-01

    Spectral evaluation of global geopotential models (GGMs) is necessary to recognize the behaviour of gravity signal and its error recorded in spherical harmonic coefficients and associated standard deviations. Results put forward in this wise explain the whole contribution of gravity data in different kinds that represent various sections of the gravity spectrum. This method is more informative than accuracy assessment methods, which use external data such as GPS-levelling. Comparative spectral evaluation for more than one model can be performed both in global and local sense using many spectral tools. The number of GGMs has grown with the increasing number of data collected by the dedicated satellite gravity missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. This fact makes it necessary to measure the differences between models and to monitor the improvements in the gravity field recovery. In this paper, some of the satellite-only and combined models are examined in different scales, globally and regionally, in order to observe the advances in the modelling of GGMs and their strengths at various expansion degrees for geodetic and geophysical applications. The validation of the published errors of model coefficients is a part of this evaluation. All spectral tools explicitly reveal the superiority of the GRACE-based models when compared against the models that comprise the conventional satellite tracking data. The disagreement between models is large in local/regional areas if data sets are different, as seen from the example of the Turkish territory

  7. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  8. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, M.

    2015-01-01

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology was founded in 1827 and it is the largest technical university in Sweden with five campuses and Around 15,000 students. KTH-dESA combines an outstanding knowledge in the field of energy systems analysis. This is demonstrated by the successful collaborations with many (UN) organizations. Regional Scale Modelling for Exploring Energy Strategies for Africa include Assessing renewable energy potentials; Analysing investment strategies; ) Assessing climate resilience; Comparing electrification options; Providing web-based decision support; and Quantifying energy access. It is conclude that Strategies required to ensure a robust and flexible energy system (-> no-regret choices); Capacity investments should be in line with national & regional strategies; Climate change important to consider, as it may strongly influence the energy flows in a region; Long-term models can help identify robust energy investment strategies and pathways that Can help assess future markets and profitability of individual projects

  9. ISSR markers for gender identification and genetic diagnosis of Hippophae rhamnoides ssp. turkestanica growing at high altitudes in Ladakh region (Jammu and Kashmir).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kamal; Ganie, Showkat Hussain; Mangla, Yash; Dar, Tanvir-Ul-Hassan; Chaudhary, Manju; Thakur, Rakesh Kumar; Tandon, Rajesh; Raina, S N; Goel, Shailendra

    2017-03-01

    Hippophae rhamnoides L. ssp. turkestanica (Elaeagnaceae) is a predominantly dioecious and wind-pollinated medicinal plant species. The mature fruits of the species possess antioxidative, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, anticancerous, and antistimulatory properties that are believed to improve the immune system. The identification of male and female plants in H. rhamnoides ssp. turkestanica is quite difficult until flowering which usually takes 3-4 years or more. A sex-linked marker can be helpful in establishing the orchards through identification of genders at an early stage of development. Therefore, we studied the genetic diversity of populations in Ladakh with the aim to identify a gender-specific marker using ISSR markers. Fifty-eight ISSR primers were used to characterize the genome of H. rhamnoides ssp. turkestanica, of which eight primers generated 12 sex-specific fragments specific to one or more populations. The ISSR primer (P-45) produced a fragment which faithfully segregates all the males from the female plants across all the three valleys surveyed. This male-specific locus was converted into a SCAR. Forward and reverse primers designed from this fragment amplified a 750-bp sequence in males only, thus specifying it as an informative male-specific sex-linked marker. This SCAR marker was further validated for its capability to differentiate gender on an additional collection of plants, representing three geographically isolated valleys (Nubra, Suru, and Indus) from Ladakh region of India. The results confirmed sex-linked specificity of the marker suggesting that this conserved sequence at the Y chromosome is well preserved through the populations in Ladakh region. At present, there are no reliable markers which can differentiate male from female plants across all the three valleys of Ladakh region at an early stage of plant development. It is therefore envisaged that the developed SCAR marker shall provide a reliable molecular tool for early

  10. Transglycosylated Starch Improves Insulin Response and Alters Lipid and Amino Acid Metabolome in a Growing Pig Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica A. Newman

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the functional properties and physiological effects often associated with chemically modified starches, significant interest lies in their development for incorporation in processed foods. This study investigated the effect of transglycosylated cornstarch (TGS on blood glucose, insulin, and serum metabolome in the pre- and postprandial phase in growing pigs. Eight jugular vein-catheterized barrows were fed two diets containing 72% purified starch (waxy cornstarch (CON or TGS. A meal tolerance test (MTT was performed with serial blood sampling for glucose, insulin, lipids, and metabolome profiling. TGS-fed pigs had reduced postprandial insulin (p < 0.05 and glucose (p < 0.10 peaks compared to CON-fed pigs. The MTT showed increased (p < 0.05 serum urea with TGS-fed pigs compared to CON, indicative of increased protein catabolism. Metabolome profiling showed reduced (p < 0.05 amino acids such as alanine and glutamine with TGS, suggesting increased gluconeogenesis compared to CON, probably due to a reduction in available glucose. Of all metabolites affected by dietary treatment, alkyl-acyl-phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins were generally increased (p < 0.05 preprandially, whereas diacyl-phosphatidylcholines and lysophosphatidylcholines were decreased (p < 0.05 postprandially in TGS-fed pigs compared to CON. In conclusion, TGS led to changes in postprandial insulin and glucose metabolism, which may have caused the alterations in serum amino acid and phospholipid metabolome profiles.

  11. Tidal simulation using regional ocean modeling systems (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaochun; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Dong, Changming; Farrara, John; McWilliams, James C.; Shum, C. K.; Wang, Yu; Matsumoto, Koji; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; hide

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to test the capability of ROMS in simulating tides. The research also serves as a necessary exercise to implement tides in an operational ocean forecasting system. In this paper, we emphasize the validation of the model tide simulation. The characteristics and energetics of tides of the region will be reported in separate publications.

  12. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  13. VCE Model of Community, Local, Regional Food Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Niewolny, Kim

    2016-01-01

    This document is a chart illustrating the Virginia Cooperative Extension model for food systems at the community, local and regional level. This chart shows an interrelationship between basic and applied research, leveraging of resources and opportunities, communication and marketing, assessment, evaluation and impact, knowledge, skills, and social change, facilitation of partnerships, and also teaching.

  14. Modeling of Regional Climate over Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2011-04-09

    Observations, re-analyses, and climate model simulations show strong surface temperature trends in Middle East and Arabian Peninsula in the last 30 years. Trends are especially pronounced in summer exceeding +1K/decade. However, some regions, e.g., the So

  15. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  16. A Schumpeterian Model of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Regional Economic Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batabyal, A.; Nijkamp, P.

    2012-01-01

    The authors provide the first theoretical analysis of a one-sector, discrete-time, Schumpeterian model of growth in a regional economy in which consumers are risk neutral, there is no population growth, monopolistic entrepreneurs produce intermediate goods, and a single consumption good is produced

  17. Comparison of CERES, WOFOST and SWAP models in simulating soil water content during growing season under different soil conditions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eitzinger, J.; Trnka, M.; Hosch, J.; Žalud, Z.; Dubrovský, Martin

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 171, č. 3 (2004), s. 223-246 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/02/0827 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : Winter wheat * Spring barley * Soil water balance * Model evaluation * Ecological modeling Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.652, year: 2004

  18. And So It Grows: Using a Computer-Based Simulation of a Population Growth Model to Integrate Biology & Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Street, Garrett M.; Laubach, Timothy A.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a 5E structured-inquiry lesson so that students can learn more of the mathematics behind the logistic model of population biology. By using models and mathematics, students understand how population dynamics can be influenced by relatively simple changes in the environment.

  19. Freemium Business Models as the Foundation for Growing an E-business Venture: A Multiple Case Study of Industry Leaders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Günzel-Jensen, Franziska; Holm, Anna B.

    2015-01-01

    directly and indirectly further resource acquisition. Second, while previous literature has taken a static perspective, we contribute by illustrating the dynamic process of strategic business model design for growth. Finally, we introduce the concept of the nascent business model which is new......In e-business freemium business models have become legitimate. However, current research provides little insight on how the free and premium offering should be employed to lead to growth and success in the long run. The presented research aims to fill this gap by investigating how the property...... ‘free’ was employed in young entrepreneurial ventures’ business models in the initial life-cycle stages – opportunity recognition, market entry, and market exploitation. We find that various forms of freemium business models are employed through the initial life-cycle stages of a new venture for reasons...

  20. Regional modelling of anthropogenic sulphur in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engardt, M.; Leong, C. P.

    A co-operative research project between the Malaysian Meteorological Service (MMS) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) focussing on the usage of an atmospheric transport and chemistry model, has just been initiated. Here, we describe the main features of the dispersion model and discuss a first set of calculations in light of available measurements of sulphuric species in Southeast Asia. According to our results, anthropogenic sulphur concentrations and depositions are particularly high near the large cities of the region, around a metal smelter in the southern Philippines, and in a region extending from northern Vietnam into southeastern China. These areas coincide with the high-emissions regions of Southeast Asia and we tentatively conclude that regional transport of acidifying species is not as far-reaching as in the mid-latitudes. From our calculations, and from supporting measurements we conclude that most of rural Southeast Asia is not yet severely affected by anthropogenic sulphur, but given the rapid rate of economical development in this region the situation may deteriorate quickly. Areas that are particularly at risk include the large cities, northern Vietnam, most of central Thailand, most of peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sumatra and parts of Java, all of which receive total-sulphur depositions in excess of 0.5 g S m -2 yr -1. Our model simulates sulphate in precipitation in accordance with measurements, but it has a tendency to overestimate atmospheric SO 2. It remains to be investigated whether this is a problem in the model formulation or a result of unrepresentative sampling. An immediate continuation of this study should be performed with higher spatial resolution than the currently used 100×100 km 2. Other imperfections in this model study, which should be addressed in future work, include parameterised vertical transport in deep convective clouds, the influence of natural emissions (primarily from volcanoes) on the

  1. Scientist-Practitioner Engagement to Inform Regional Hydroclimate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K. A.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water mangers face significant challenges in planning for the coming decades as previously stationary aspects of the regional hydroclimate shift in response to global climate change. Providing scientific insights that enable appropriate use of regional hydroclimate projections for planning is a non-trivial problem. The system of data, models, and methods used to produce regional hydroclimate projections is subject to multiple interacting uncertainties and biases, including uncertainties that arise from general circulation models, re-analysis data products, regional climate models, hydrologic models, and statistical downscaling methods. Moreover, many components of this system were not designed with the information needs of water managers in mind. To address this problem and provide actionable insights into the sources of uncertainty present in regional hydroclimate data products, Project Hyperion has undertaken a stakeholder engagement process in four case study water basins across the US. Teams of water managers and scientists are interacting in a structured manner to identify decision-relevant metrics of model performance. These metrics are in turn being used to drive scientific investigations to uncover the sources of uncertainty in these quantities. Thus far, we have found that identification of climate phenomena of interest to stakeholders is relatively easy, but translating these into specific quantifiable metrics and prioritizing metrics is more challenging. Iterative feedback among scientists and stakeholders has proven critical in resolving these challenges, as has the roles played by boundary spanners who understand and can speak to the perspectives of multiple professional communities. Here we describe the structured format of our engagement process and the lessons learned so far, as we aim to improve the decision-relevance of hydroclimate projections through a collaborative process.

  2. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  3. Model Development to Predict Phenological scale of Table Grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe using Growing Degree Days

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Verdugo-Vásquez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Phenological models have been made mainly for winegrape cultivars, despite the economic importance of table grapes. The aim of this work was to develop and validate models for predicting phenological scales of table grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe grown under semi-arid conditions. Measurements of phenology were carried out weekly from budburst to harvest during four growing seasons (2009-2013. Phenology models were developed using the Mitscherlich monomolecular equation where the dependent and independent variables were the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP scale modified by Coombe and the growing degree days (GDD, respectively. Results indicated that there were strong non-linear correlations between the ELP scale and GDD for the four cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R2 ranging between 0.97-0.99. Also, validation indicated that the models were able to predict ELP scale with a root mean square (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE ranging between 2.1-2.4 and 1.35-1.69, respectively. The prediction variability (expressed in days was between 4.4-19.4 days, obtaining the best results for the flowering period. This study suggested that the phenological models based on GDD could be useful planning tools for farming, especially from budburst to veraison of table grape cultivars.

  4. New Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, N.

    2012-12-01

    The Caucasus is a region of numerous natural hazards and ensuing disasters. Analysis of the losses due to past disasters indicates the those most catastrophic in the region have historically been due to strong earthquakes. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Because of this, many peak ground acceleration attenuation relations have been developed by different authors. Besides, a few attenuation relations were developed for Caucasus region: Ambraseys et al. (1996,2005) which were based on entire European region and they were not focused locally on Caucasus Region; Smit et.al. (2000) that was based on a small amount of acceleration data that really is not enough. Since 2003 construction of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started with the help of number of International organizations, Projects and Private companies. The works conducted involved scientific as well as organizational activities: Resolving technical problems concerning communication and data transmission. Thus, today we have a possibility to get real time data and make scientific research based on digital seismic data. Generally, ground motion and damage are influenced by the magnitude of the earthquake, the distance from the seismic source to site, the local ground conditions and the characteristics of buildings. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. This is the reason why this topic is emphasized in this study. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models are obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. Also site ground conditions are considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage

  5. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  6. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Carter, Timothy R.; Rummukainen, Markku

    2007-01-01

    This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research articles documenting co-ordinated work carried out within a 3-year European Union project 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects' (PRUDENCE). The main objective...... of the PRUDENCE project was to provide high resolution climate change scenarios for Europe at the end of the twenty-first century by means of dynamical downscaling (regional climate modelling) of global climate simulations. The first part of the issue comprises seven overarching PRUDENCE papers on: (1) the design...... of the model simulations and analyses of climate model performance, (2 and 3) evaluation and intercomparison of simulated climate changes, (4 and 5) specialised analyses of impacts on water resources and on other sectors including agriculture, ecosystems, energy, and transport, (6) investigation of extreme...

  7. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  8. Modeling of air currents in the Gulf Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Ellis, J.S.; Foster, C.S.; Foster, K.T.; Baskett, R.L.; Nasstrom, J.S.; Schalk, W.W.

    1992-01-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability modeled the wind flow in the Gulf Region in order to make projections of the Kuwait oil fires pollution dispersion. Extensive meteorological models incorporating explicit terrain influences to the flow fields were routinely employed through a six month international assessment support effort organized by the World Meteorological Organization and US scientific research agencies. Results show generally close agreement with visible imagery of the smoke plumes as detected by meteorological satellites. However, there are some examples of significant disagreement or failure of the meteorological models. These failures are most likely directly linked to missing or unavailable weather observations

  9. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  10. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  11. Modelling non-hydrostatic processes in sill regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, A.; Xing, J.; Davies, A.; Berntsen, J.

    2007-12-01

    We use a non-hydrostatic model to compute tidally induced flow and mixing in the region of bottom topography representing the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive (Scotland). This site is chosen since detailed measurements were recently made there. With non-hydrostatic dynamics in the model our results showed that the model could reproduce the observed flow characteristics, e.g., hydraulic transition, flow separation and internal waves. However, when calculations were performed using the model in the hydrostatic form, significant artificial convective mixing occurred. This influenced the computed temperature and flow field. We will discuss in detail the effects of non-hydrostatic dynamics on flow over the sill, especially investigate non-linear and non-hydrostatic contributions to modelled internal waves and internal wave energy fluxes.

  12. Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinke, A.; Dethloff, K.; Cassano, J. J.

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western......, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively...... constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables....

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  14. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  15. BWR regional instability model and verification on ringhals-1 test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hotta, Akitoshi; Suzawa, Yojiro

    1996-01-01

    Regional instability is known as one type of the coupled neutronic-thermohydraulic phenomena of boiling water reactors (BWRs), where the thermohydraulic density wave propagation mechanism is predominant. Historically, it has been simulated by the three-dimensional time domain code in spite of its significant computing time. On the other hand, there have been proposals to apply the frequency domain models in regional instability considering the subcriticality of the higher neutronic mode. However, their application still remains in corewide instability mainly because of the lack of more detailed methodological and empirical studies. In this study, the current version of the frequency domain model was extended and verified based on actual core regional instability measurement data. The mathematical model LAPUR, the well-known frequency domain stability code, was reviewed from the standpoint of pure thermohydraulics and neutronic-thermohydraulic interaction mechanisms. Based on the ex-core loop test data, the original LAPUR mixed friction and local pressure loss model was modified, taking into account the different dynamic behavior of these two pressure-loss mechanisms. The perturbation term of the two-phase friction multiplier, which is the sum of the derivative of void fraction and subcool enthalpy, was adjusted theoretically. The adequacy of the instability evaluation system was verified based on the Ringhals unit 1 test data, which were supplied to participants of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency BWR Stability Benchmark Project

  16. An analytical solution for the estimation of the critical available soil water fraction for a single layer water balance model under growing crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Brisson

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of simplified water balance models devoted to irrigation scheduling or crop modelling, the relative transpiration rate (the ratio of actual to maximal transpiration is assumed to decrease linearly when the soil dries out below a critical available water value. This value is usually expressed as a fraction, F, of the maximal available soil water content. The present work aims to use the basic laws governing water transfer through the plants at a daily time step to compute F dynamically as the crop grows. It can be regarded as an expansion of Slabbers' (1980 approach to crop growing conditions. Starting from the mathematical representation given by single-root models (Gardner, 1960, an analytical expression for F is derived, using simplified hypotheses. This expression accounts for plant attributes such as the mean root radius, the critical leaf water potential for stomatal closure and the root length density profile growing with the crop. Environmental factors such as soil type and atmospheric demand also influence F. The structural influence of soil comes from the required introduction of the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity in the single-root model. The shape of the root length density profile is assumed to be sigmoidal and a new profile is calculated at each value of the rooting depth. A sensitivity analysis of F to all those factors is presented. The first general result is that F decreases as the root system grows in depth. Differences in the shape of the root profile can be responsible for differential water stress sensitivity in the early stages of growth. Yet, low critical leaf water potential can compensate partially for a poor root profile. Conversely, F is relatively insensitive to the average root radius. F sensitivity to soil type seems somewhat artificial: given the bulk soil hydraulic conductivity formula, the soil sensitivity results from F being expressed as a fraction of the maximal available soil water content

  17. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  18. Dispersive processes in models of regional radionuclide migration. Technical memorandum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evenson, D.E.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1980-05-01

    Three broad areas of concern in the development of aquifer scale transport models will be local scale diffusion and dispersion processes, regional scale dispersion processes, and numerical problems associated with the advection-dispersion equation. Local scale dispersion processes are fairly well understood and accessible to observation. These processes will generally be dominated in large scale systems by regional processes, or macro-dispersion. Macro-dispersion is primarily the result of large scale heterogeneities in aquifer properties. In addition, the effects of many modeling approximations are often included in the process. Because difficulties arise in parameterization of this large scale phenomenon, parameterization should be based on field measurements made at the same scale as the transport process of interest or else partially circumvented through the application of a probabilistic advection model. Other problems associated with numerical transport models include difficulties with conservation of mass, stability, numerical dissipation, overshoot, flexibility, and efficiency. We recommend the random-walk model formulation for Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's purposes as the most flexible, accurate and relatively efficient modeling approach that overcomes these difficulties

  19. Continuous treatment process of mercury removal from aqueous solution by growing recombinant E. coli cells and modeling study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, X.; Hu, Z.L.; Yi, X.E.

    2008-01-01

    A continuous treatment process was developed to investigate the capability of genetically engineered E. coli to simultaneously accumulate mercuric ions and reproduce itself in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) system. The influence of dilution rate and initial Hg 2+ concentration on continuous process was evaluated. Results indicated that the recombinant E. coli could effectively accumulate Hg 2+ from aqueous solution with Hg 2+ removal ratio up to about 90%, and propagate its cells at the same time in the continuous treatment system under suitable operational conditions. A kinetic model based on mass balance of Hg 2+ was proposed to simulate the continuous process. The modeling results were in good agreement with the experimental data

  20. Freight planning and regional cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic megaregion : a regional models of cooperation peer exchange summary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-08

    This report highlights key themes identified at the Freight Planning and Regional Cooperation in the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion Peer Exchange held on January 31, 2017 and February 1, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Regional Models of Cooperatio...

  1. GIS modelling of solar potential in Toplica region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valjarević Aleksandar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigated possible potential solar area on Toplica region based on GIS (Geographical Information system and using a special kriging method with the help of open sources GIS software Quantum GIS. This kriging method is very special to vectorized and calculated the small area. The statistical approach calculated between datasets of three meteorological stations (Niš, Prokuplje, Kuršumlija. Data using of insolation from that meteorological stations from the period of (1953-2013 is useful for a solution to calculating solar potential. The also used parameter is hypsometry of relief of the whole area of Toplica region. Area of Toplica region is 2.231 km2 with a population of 90600 citizens. Divided into fourth municipalities (Prokuplje, Žitoradja, Black, Kuršumlija. The GIS modeling indicates that ideal areas for solar development are located the potential places in Toplica region. Only 13.6 km2 of the head model scores that were in the 90-100% range. However, given the statewide high insolation values with minimal variance, solar projects may be better suited for small-scale residential or commercial projects.

  2. Monitoring of nutrient limitation in growing E. coli: a mathematical model of a ppGpp-based biosensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhilko, Alexandra

    2017-11-21

    E. coli can be used as bacterial cell factories for production of biofuels and other useful compounds. The efficient production of the desired products requires careful monitoring of growth conditions and the optimization of metabolic fluxes. To avoid nutrient depletion and maximize product yields we suggest using a natural mechanism for sensing nutrient limitation, related to biosynthesis of an intracellular messenger - guanosine tetraphosphate (ppGpp). We propose a design for a biosensor, which monitors changes in the intracellular concentration of ppGpp by coupling it to a fluorescent output. We used mathematical modelling to analyse the intracellular dynamics of ppGpp, its fluorescent reporter, and cell growth in normal and fatty acid-producing E. coli lines. The model integrates existing mechanisms of ppGpp regulation and predicts the biosensor response to changes in nutrient state. In particular, the model predicts that excessive stimulation of fatty acid production depletes fatty acid intermediates, downregulates growth and increases the levels of ppGpp-related fluorescence. Our analysis demonstrates that the ppGpp sensor can be used for early detection of nutrient limitation during cell growth and for testing productivity of engineered lines.

  3. Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

  4. Modeling Regional Seismic Waves from Underground Nuclear Explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-05-15

    source outside the basin, small solid box beneath Ama. Little waveform distortion is observed along the path towsrds Pasadena (upper four trames) while...effects not accounted for in the wed and analytical solutions were derived for soluble interpretations given (Nuttli 1973, 1978, 1981; Herman & special...in a trnition region of COUPLING lengh L. The hybrid method used in the present study allows the the layering. Several types of solutions for models

  5. Efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sekeh, M. A.; Maarof, M. A.; Rohani, M. F.; Mahdian, Babak

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2013), s. 73-84 ISSN 1742-2876 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Image forensic * Copy–paste forgery * Local block matching Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.986, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/ZOI/mahdian-efficient image duplicated region detection model using sequential block clustering.pdf

  6. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  7. Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

    OpenAIRE

    Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

  8. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  9. The integration of bioclimatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticulture suitability in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral García, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo

    2014-05-01

    Different bioclimatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this work we propose using the information obtained from 10 bioclimatic indices and variables (heliothermal index, HI, cool night index, CI, dryness index, DI, growing season temperature, GST, the Winkler index, WI, September mean thermal amplitude, MTA, annual precipitation, AP, precipitation during flowering, PDF, precipitation before flowering, PBF, and summer precipitation, SP) as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main bioclimatic indices which could influence on wine suitability, and utilize the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the bioclimatic indices or variables which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural suitability potential in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southewestern Spain, is shown. Keywords: Rasch model, bioclimatic indices, GIS.

  10. Simple Model for Identifying Critical Regions in Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Kim; Manani, Kishan A.; Peters, Nicholas S.

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm and the single biggest cause of stroke. Ablation, destroying regions of the atria, is applied largely empirically and can be curative but with a disappointing clinical success rate. We design a simple model of activation wave front propagation on an anisotropic structure mimicking the branching network of heart muscle cells. This integration of phenomenological dynamics and pertinent structure shows how AF emerges spontaneously when the transverse cell-to-cell coupling decreases, as occurs with age, beyond a threshold value. We identify critical regions responsible for the initiation and maintenance of AF, the ablation of which terminates AF. The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate analytically the risk of arrhythmia and express the threshold value of transversal cell-to-cell coupling as a function of the model parameters. This threshold value decreases with increasing refractory period by reducing the number of critical regions which can initiate and sustain microreentrant circuits. These biologically testable predictions might inform ablation therapies and arrhythmic risk assessment.

  11. Methane Fluxes in West Siberia: 3-D Regional Model Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jagovkina, S. V.; Karol, I. L.; Zubov, V. A.; Lagun, V. E.; Reshetnikov, A. I.; Rozanov, E. V.

    2001-01-01

    The West Siberian region is one of the main contributors of the atmospheric greenhouse gas methane due to the large areas of wetlands, rivers, lakes and numerous gas deposits situated there.But there are no reliable estimations of integral methane flux from this area into the atmosphere. For assessment of methane fluxes in West Siberia the specially constructed 3-D regional chemical transport model was applied. The 3-D distribution of methane is calculated on the basis of the current meteorological data fields(wind, temperature, geopotential) updated 4 times a day. The methane concentrations measured near the main gas fields of West Siberia in the summer season of 1999, were used for correction of methane flux intensity estimates obtained previously by comparison of measurements carried out in summer 1993 and 1996 with modelled methane mixing ratio distribution. This set of field and model experiments confirmed the preliminary conclusion about low leakage intensity: anthropogenic methane flux does not exceed 5-15% of total summer methane flux, estimated as 11-12 Mt CH 4 in summer from this region, in spite of the large areas of gas deposits located there

  12. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-11-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  13. ORGEST: Regional guidelines and silvicultural models for sustainable forest management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piqué, Míriam; Vericat, Pau; Beltrán, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Aim of the study: To develop regional guidelines for sustainable forest management. Area of the study: Forests of Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: The process of developing the forest management guidelines (FMG) started by establishing a thorough classification of forest types at stand level. This classification hinges on two attributes: tree species composition and site quality based on ecological variables, which together determine potential productivity. From there, the management guidelines establish certain objectives and silvicultural models for each forest type. The forest type classifications, like the silvicultural models, were produced using both existing and newly-built growth models based on data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and expert knowledge. The effort involved over 20 expert working groups in order to better integrate the expertise and vision of different sectorial agents. Main results: The FMG consist in quantitative silvicultural models that include typical silvicultural variables, technical descriptions of treatments and codes of good practice. Guidelines now cover almost all forest types in Catalonia (spanning up to 90% of the Catalan forest area). Different silvicultural models have been developed for pure and mixed stands, different site quality classes (2–3 classes per species), and even- and multi-aged stands. Research highlights: FMG: i) orient the management of private and public forests, (ii) provide a technical scaffold for efficient allocation/investment of public subsidies in forest management, and (iii) bridge forest planning instruments at regional (strategic-tactical) and stand (operational) level.

  14. Modelling regional trade of CO{sub 2} certificates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueeler, B.; Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    Many countries have developed energy models (such as MARKAL-MACRO---MM) to assess their energy policies, in particular concerning the curbing of their carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions. To integrate national MM models, we propose a multi-regional MARKAL-MACRO (3M) model. It enables one to study an international co-operation to curb jointly CO{sub 2} emissions through a market of emission permits. Furthermore, from a decision support perspective, the 3M model can be used to integrate aspects of ecological sustainability (in relation to global climate change issue), economic welfare, efficient resource use and technological innovation. To solve 3M, we follow two alternative mathematical methods. (author) 4 refs.

  15. Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

    KAUST Repository

    Goddard, Scott D.

    2015-05-01

    Electrical utility system operators must plan resources so that electricity supply matches demand throughout the day. As the proportion of wind-generated electricity in the US grows, changes in daily wind patterns have the potential either to disrupt the utility or increase the value of wind to the system over time. Wind power projects are designed to last many years, so at this timescale, climate change may become an influential factor on wind patterns. We examine the potential effects of climate change on the average diurnal power production cycles at 12 locations in North America by analyzing averaged and individual output from nine high-resolution regional climate models comprising historical (1971–1999) and future (2041–2069) periods. A semi-parametric mixed model is fit using cubic B-splines, and model diagnostics are checked. Then, a likelihood ratio test is applied to test for differences between the time periods in the seasonal daily averaged cycles, and agreement among the individual regional climate models is assessed. We investigate the significant changes by combining boxplots with a differencing approach and identify broad categories of changes in the amplitude, shape, and position of the average daily cycles. We then discuss the potential impact of these changes on wind power production.

  16. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  17. Tomographic models and seismotectonics of the Reggio Emilia region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaccio, M. G.; Chiarabba, C.

    2002-02-01

    The aim of this study is to define the Vp and Vp/Vs structure of the fault zone ruptured by the M L 5.1 earthquake of October 15, 1996 which occurred near Reggio Emilia (central-northern Italy). A 1-month-long seismic sequence followed the mainshock and occurred in a small region along the outer border of the northern Apenninic belt, at depth ranging between 10 and 17 km. P- and S-wave arrival times from 304 aftershocks recorded by two local dense seismic arrays installed in the epicentral region have been inverted to obtain one- and three-dimensional velocity models by using state of the art local earthquake tomographic techniques. Velocity models and aftershock relocation help us to infer the seismotectonic of the region. Earthquakes originated along a NW-dipping backthrust of a NE-trending main thrust, composing the western part of the broad Ferrara Arc. A main high Vp and high Vp/Vs region delineates a pop-up structure in the center of the area. The high Vp/Vs within the pop-up structure supports the presence of a zone with increased pore pressure. The hypocentral depth of both mainshock and aftershocks is greater than those usually found for the main seismogenic regions of the Apenninic belt. P-wave velocity values in the seismogenic area, obtained by tomography, are compatible with rocks of the Mesozoic cover and suggest that seismicity occurred within the Mesozoic units stack at present by compressional tectonics.

  18. A Reusable Framework for Regional Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A. F.; Goodale, C. E.; Mattmann, C. A.; Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Zimdars, P.; Waliser, D. E.; Crichton, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate observations are currently obtained through a diverse network of sensors and platforms that include space-based observatories, airborne and seaborne platforms, and distributed, networked, ground-based instruments. These global observational measurements are critical inputs to the efforts of the climate modeling community and can provide a corpus of data for use in analysis and validation of climate models. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an effort currently being undertaken to address the challenges of integrating this vast array of observational climate data into a coherent resource suitable for performing model analysis at the regional level. Developed through a collaboration between the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the UCLA Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE), the RCMES uses existing open source technologies (MySQL, Apache Hadoop, and Apache OODT), to construct a scalable, parametric, geospatial data store that incorporates decades of observational data from a variety of NASA Earth science missions, as well as other sources into a consistently annotated, highly available scientific resource. By eliminating arbitrary partitions in the data (individual file boundaries, differing file formats, etc), and instead treating each individual observational measurement as a unique, geospatially referenced data point, the RCMES is capable of transforming large, heterogeneous collections of disparate observational data into a unified resource suitable for comparison to climate model output. This facility is further enhanced by the availability of a model evaluation toolkit which consists of a set of Python libraries, a RESTful web service layer, and a browser-based graphical user interface that allows for orchestration of model-to-data comparisons by composing them visually through web forms. This combination of tools and interfaces dramatically simplifies the process of interacting with and

  19. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  20. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  1. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  2. Mesoscale modeling of smoke radiative feedback over the Sahel region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Ellison, L.; Zhang, F.; Yue, Y.

    2013-12-01

    This study employs satellite observations and a fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study the smoke radative feedback on surface energy budget, boundary layer processes, and atmospheric lapse rate in February 2008 over the Sahel region. The smoke emission inventories we use come from various sources, including but not limited to the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) developed by NRL and the Fire Energetic and Emissions Research (FEER) developed by NASA GSFC. Model performance is evaluated using numerous satellite and ground-based datasets: MODIS true color images, ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements from AERONET, MODIS AOD retrievals, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar data with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) atmospheric backscattering and extinction products. Specification of smoke injection height of 650 m in WRF-Chem yields aerosol vertical profiles that are most consistent with CALIOP observations of aerosol layer height. Statistically, 5% of the CALIPSO valid measurements of aerosols in February 2008 show aerosol layers either above the clouds or between the clouds, reinforcing the importance of the aerosol vertical distribution for quantifying aerosol impact on climate in the Sahel region. The results further show that the smoke radiative feedbacks are sensitive to assumptions of black carbon and organic carbon ratio in the particle emission inventory. Also investigated is the smoke semi-direct effect as a function of cloud fraction.

  3. Aberrant Behaviours of Reaction Diffusion Self-organisation Models on Growing Domains in the Presence of Gene Expression Time Delays

    KAUST Repository

    Seirin Lee, S.

    2010-03-23

    Turing\\'s pattern formation mechanism exhibits sensitivity to the details of the initial conditions suggesting that, in isolation, it cannot robustly generate pattern within noisy biological environments. Nonetheless, secondary aspects of developmental self-organisation, such as a growing domain, have been shown to ameliorate this aberrant model behaviour. Furthermore, while in-situ hybridisation reveals the presence of gene expression in developmental processes, the influence of such dynamics on Turing\\'s model has received limited attention. Here, we novelly focus on the Gierer-Meinhardt reaction diffusion system considering delays due the time taken for gene expression, while incorporating a number of different domain growth profiles to further explore the influence and interplay of domain growth and gene expression on Turing\\'s mechanism. We find extensive pathological model behaviour, exhibiting one or more of the following: temporal oscillations with no spatial structure, a failure of the Turing instability and an extreme sensitivity to the initial conditions, the growth profile and the duration of gene expression. This deviant behaviour is even more severe than observed in previous studies of Schnakenberg kinetics on exponentially growing domains in the presence of gene expression (Gaffney and Monk in Bull. Math. Biol. 68:99-130, 2006). Our results emphasise that gene expression dynamics induce unrealistic behaviour in Turing\\'s model for multiple choices of kinetics and thus such aberrant modelling predictions are likely to be generic. They also highlight that domain growth can no longer ameliorate the excessive sensitivity of Turing\\'s mechanism in the presence of gene expression time delays. The above, extensive, pathologies suggest that, in the presence of gene expression, Turing\\'s mechanism would generally require a novel and extensive secondary mechanism to control reaction diffusion patterning. © 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  4. Numerical modeling of regional stress distributions for geothermal exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillon, Theophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Gentier, Sylvie; Blaisonneau, Arnold

    2017-04-01

    Any high-enthalpy unconventional geothermal projectcan be jeopardized by the uncertainty on the presence of the geothermal resource at depth. Indeed, for the majority of such projects the geothermal resource is deeply seated and, with the drilling costs increasing accordingly, must be located as precisely as possible to increase the chance of their economic viability. In order to reduce the "geological risk", i.e., the chance to poorly locate the geothermal resource, a maximum amount of information must be gathered prior to any drilling of exploration and/or operational well. Cross-interpretation from multiple disciplines (e.g., geophysics, hydrology, geomechanics …) should improve locating the geothermal resource and so the position of exploration wells ; this is the objective of the European project IMAGE (grant agreement No. 608553), under which the work presented here was carried out. As far as geomechanics is concerned, in situ stresses can have a great impact on the presence of a geothermal resource since they condition both the regime within the rock mass, and the state of the major fault zones (and hence, the possible flow paths). In this work, we propose a geomechanical model to assess the stress distribution at the regional scale (characteristic length of 100 kilometers). Since they have a substantial impact on the stress distributions and on the possible creation of regional flow paths, the major fault zones are explicitly taken into account. The Distinct Element Method is used, where the medium is modeled as fully deformable blocks representing the rock mass interacting through mechanically active joints depicting the fault zones. The first step of the study is to build the model geometry based on geological and geophysical evidences. Geophysical and structural geology results help positioning the major fault zones in the first place. Then, outcrop observations, structural models and site-specific geological knowledge give information on the fault

  5. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  6. Observational tests for H II region models - A 'champagne party'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alloin, D; Tenorio-Tagle, G

    1979-09-01

    Observations of several neighboring H II regions associated with a molecular cloud were performed in order to test the champagne model of H II region-molecular cloud interaction leading to the supersonic expansion of molecular cloud gas. Nine different positions in the Gum 61 nebula were observed using an image dissector scanner attached to a 3.6-m telescope, and it is found that the area corresponds to a low excitation, high density nebula, with electron densities ranging between 1400 and 2800/cu cm and larger along the boundary of the ionized gas. An observed increase in pressure and density located in an interior region of the nebula is interpreted in terms of an area between two rarefaction waves generated together with a strong isothermal shock, responsible for the champagne-like streaming, by a pressure discontinuity between the ionized molecular cloud in which star formation takes place and the intercloud gas. It is noted that a velocity field determination would provide the key in understanding the evolution of such a region.

  7. Bone mineral properties in growing Col1a2(+/G610C) mice, an animal model of osteogenesis imperfecta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masci, Marco; Wang, Min; Imbert, Laurianne; Barnes, Aileen M; Spevak, Lyudmila; Lukashova, Lyudmila; Huang, Yihe; Ma, Yan; Marini, Joan C; Jacobsen, Christina M; Warman, Matthew L; Boskey, Adele L

    2016-06-01

    The Col1a2(+/G610C) knock-in mouse, models osteogenesis imperfecta in a large old order Amish family (OOA) with type IV OI, caused by a G-to-T transversion at nucleotide 2098, which alters the gly-610 codon in the triple-helical domain of the α2(I) chain of type I collagen. Mineral and matrix properties of the long bones and vertebrae of male Col1a2(+/G610C) and their wild-type controls (Col1a2(+/+)), were characterized to gain insight into the role of α2-chain collagen mutations in mineralization. Additionally, we examined the rescuability of the composition by sclerostin inhibition initiated by crossing Col1a2(+/G610C) with an LRP(+/A214V) high bone mass allele. At age 10-days, vertebrae and tibia showed few alterations by micro-CT or Fourier transform infrared imaging (FTIRI). At 2-months-of-age, Col1a2(+/G610C) tibias had 13% fewer secondary trabeculae than Col1a2(+/+), these were thinner (11%) and more widely spaced (20%) than those of Col1a2(+/+) mice. Vertebrae of Col1a2(+/G610C) mice at 2-months also had lower bone volume fraction (38%), trabecular number (13%), thickness (13%) and connectivity density (32%) compared to Col1(a2+/+). The cortical bone of Col1a2(+/G610C) tibias at 2-months had 3% higher tissue mineral density compared to Col1a2(+/+); Col1a2(+/G610C) vertebrae had lower cortical thickness (29%), bone area (37%) and polar moment of inertia (38%) relative to Col1a2(+/+). FTIRI analysis, which provides information on bone chemical composition at ~7μm-spatial resolution, showed tibias at 10-days did not differ between genotypes. Comparing identical bone types in Col1a2(+/G610C) to Col1a2(+/+) at 2-months-of-age, tibias showed higher mineral-to-matrix ratio in trabeculae (17%) and cortices (31%). and in vertebral cortices (28%). Collagen maturity was 42% higher at 10-days-of-age in Col1a2(+/G610C) vertebral trabeculae and in 2-month tibial cortices (12%), vertebral trabeculae (42%) and vertebral cortices (12%). Higher acid-phosphate substitution

  8. Laboratory tools to quantify biogenic dissolution of rocks and minerals: a model rock biofilm growing in percolation columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz eSeiffert

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Sub-aerial biofilms (SAB are ubiquitous, self-sufficient microbial ecosystems found on mineral surfaces at all altitudes and latitudes. SABs, which are the principal causes of weathering on exposed terrestrial surfaces, are characterised by patchy growth dominated by associations of algae, cyanobacteria, fungi and heterotrophic bacteria. A recently developed in vitro system to study colonisation of rocks exposed to air included two key SAB participants - the rock-inhabiting ascomycete Knufia petricola (CBS 123872 and the phototrophic cyanobacterium Nostoc punctiforme ATCC29133. Both partners are genetically tractable and we used them here to study weathering of granite, K-feldspar and plagioclase. Small fragments of the various rocks or minerals (1 to 6 mm were packed into flow-through columns and incubated with 0.1% glucose and 10 µM thiamine-hydrochloride (90 µL.min-1 to compare weathering with and without biofilms. Dissolution of the minerals was followed by: analysing (i the degradation products in the effluent from the columns via Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectroscopy and (ii by studying polished sections of the incubated mineral fragment/grains using scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray analyses. K. petricola/N. punctiforme stimulated release of Ca, Na, Mg and Mn. Analyses of the polished sections confirmed depletion of Ca, Na and K near the surface of the fragments. The abrupt decrease in Ca concentration observed in peripheral areas of plagioclase fragments favoured a dissolution-reprecipitation mechanism. Percolation columns in combination with a model biofilm can thus be used to study weathering in closed systems. Columns can easily be filled with different minerals and biofilms, the effluent as well as grains can be collected after long-term exposure under axenic conditions and easily analysed.

  9. Laboratory tools to quantify biogenic dissolution of rocks and minerals: a model rock biofilm growing in percolation columns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiffert, Franz; Bandow, Nicole; Kalbe, Ute; Milke, Ralf; Gorbushina, Anna

    2016-04-01

    Sub-aerial biofilms (SAB) are ubiquitous, self-sufficient microbial ecosystems found on mineral surfaces at all altitudes and latitudes. SABs, which are the principal causes of weathering on exposed terrestrial surfaces, are characterised by patchy growth dominated by associations of algae, cyanobacteria, fungi and heterotrophic bacteria. A recently developed in vitro system to study colonisation of rocks exposed to air included two key SAB participants - the rock-inhabiting ascomycete Knufia petricola (CBS 123872) and the phototrophic cyanobacterium Nostoc punctiforme ATCC29133. Both partners are genetically tractable and we used them here to study weathering of granite, K-feldspar and plagioclase. Small fragments of the various rocks or minerals (1 to 6 mm) were packed into flow-through columns and incubated with 0.1% glucose and 10 µM thiamine-hydrochloride (90 µL.min-1) to compare weathering with and without biofilms. Dissolution of the minerals was followed by: analysing (i) the degradation products in the effluent from the columns via Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectroscopy and (ii) by studying polished sections of the incubated mineral fragment/grains using scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray analyses. K. petricola/N. punctiforme stimulated release of Ca, Na, Mg and Mn. Analyses of the polished sections confirmed depletion of Ca, Na and K near the surface of the fragments. The abrupt decrease in Ca concentration observed in peripheral areas of plagioclase fragments favoured a dissolution-reprecipitation mechanism. Percolation columns in combination with a model biofilm can thus be used to study weathering in closed systems. Columns can easily be filled with different minerals and biofilms, the effluent as well as grains can be collected after long-term exposure under axenic conditions and easily analysed.

  10. Synergies Between Grace and Regional Atmospheric Modeling Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Springer, A.; Ohlwein, C.; Hartung, K.; Longuevergne, L.; Kollet, S. J.; Keune, J.; Dobslaw, H.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.

    2014-12-01

    In the meteorological community, efforts converge towards implementation of high-resolution (precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff data; confirming that the model does favorably at representing observations. We show that after GRACE-derived bias correction, basin-average hydrological conditions prior to 2002 can be reconstructed better than before. Next, comparing GRACE with CLM forced by EURO-CORDEX simulations allows identifying processes needing improvement in the model. Finally, we compare COSMO-EU atmospheric pressure, a proxy for mass corrections in satellite gravimetry, with ERA-Interim over Europe at timescales shorter/longer than 1 month, and spatial scales below/above ERA resolution. We find differences between regional and global model more pronounced at high frequencies, with magnitude at sub-grid scale and larger scale corresponding to 1-3 hPa (1-3 cm EWH); relevant for the assessment of post-GRACE concepts.

  11. Modelling the development of mixing height in near equatorial region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samah, A.A. [Univ. of Malaya, Air Pollution Research Unit, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

    1997-10-01

    Most current air pollution models were developed for mid-latitude conditions and as such many of the empirical parameters used were based on observations taken in the mid-latitude boundary layer which is physically different from that of the equatorial boundary layer. In the equatorial boundary layer the Coriolis parameter f is small or zero and moisture plays a more important role in the control of stability and the surface energy balance. Therefore air pollution models such as the OMLMULTI or the ADMS which were basically developed for mid-latitude conditions must be applied with some caution and would need some adaptation to properly simulate the properties of equatorial boundary layer. This work elucidates some of the problems of modelling the evolution of mixing height in the equatorial region. The mixing height estimates were compared with routine observations taken during a severe air pollution episodes in Malaysia. (au)

  12. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  13. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Czerny, Bozena [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Li, Yan-Rong [Key Laboratory for Particle Astrophysics, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Sredzinska, Justyna; Hryniewicz, Krzysztof [Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Panda, Swayam [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Wildy, Conor [Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland); Karas, Vladimir, E-mail: bcz@cft.edu.pl [Astronomical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2017-06-22

    We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency) and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  14. Self-Consistent Dynamical Model of the Broad Line Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bozena Czerny

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a self-consistent description of the Broad Line Region based on the concept of a failed wind powered by radiation pressure acting on a dusty accretion disk atmosphere in Keplerian motion. The material raised high above the disk is illuminated, dust evaporates, and the matter falls back toward the disk. This material is the source of emission lines. The model predicts the inner and outer radius of the region, the cloud dynamics under the dust radiation pressure and, subsequently, the gravitational field of the central black hole, which results in asymmetry between the rise and fall. Knowledge of the dynamics allows us to predict the shapes of the emission lines as functions of the basic parameters of an active nucleus: black hole mass, accretion rate, black hole spin (or accretion efficiency and the viewing angle with respect to the symmetry axis. Here we show preliminary results based on analytical approximations to the cloud motion.

  15. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  16. Integration of Local Hydrology into Regional Hydrologic Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Zee, R. J.; Lal, W. A.

    2002-05-01

    South Florida hydrology is dominated by the Central and South Florida (C&SF) Project that is managed to provide flood protection, water supply and environmental protection. A complex network of levees canals and structures provide these services to the individual drainage basins. The landscape varies widely across the C&SF system, with corresponding differences in the way water is managed within each basin. Agricultural areas are managed for optimal crop production. Urban areas maximize flood protection while maintaining minimum water levels to protect adjacent wetlands and local water supplies. "Natural" areas flood and dry out in response to the temporal distribution of rainfall. The evaluation of planning, regulation and operational issues require access to a simulation model that captures the effects of both regional and local hydrology. The Regional Simulation Model (RSM) uses a "pseudo-cell" approach to integrate local hydrology within the context of a regional hydrologic system. A 2-dimensional triangulated mesh is used to represent the regional surface and ground water systems and a 1-dimensional canal network is superimposed onto this mesh. The movement of water is simulated using a finite volume formulation with a diffusive wave approximation. Each cell in the triangulated mesh has a "pseudo-cell" counterpart, which represents the same area as the cell, but it is conceptualized such that it simulates the localized hydrologic conditions Protocols have been established to provide an interface between a cell and its pseudo-cell counterpart. . A number of pseudo-cell types have already been developed and tested in the simulation of Water Conservation Area 1 and several have been proposed to deal with specific local issues in the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study. This presentation will provide an overview of the overall RSM design, describe the relationship between cells and pseudo-cells, and illustrate how pseudo-cells are be used to simulate agriculture

  17. China's "energy revolution": measuring the status quo, modelling regional dynamics and assessing global impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mischke, Peggy

    As the world's largest economy in transition, China plays a growing role in global energy markets, clean technology deployment and climate change negotiations. The Chinese president Xi Jinping called in June 2014 for an “energy revolution” of the country’s “energy production and consumption habits......, expanded and applied in this regard. The theories underlying this research are stemming from various scientific disciplines, such as energy and power engineering, macro- and energy-economics, and power project finance. Cross-cutting aspects are the harmonization of Chinese and international energy...... top-down and bottom-up global energy planning tools to model future regional dynamics of China's energy sector; and (v) an assessment of electricity generation costs of the first operational concentrated solar power technologies in China. The results of this thesis are relevant for a broad scientific...

  18. How do normal faults grow?

    OpenAIRE

    Blækkan, Ingvild; Bell, Rebecca; Rotevatn, Atle; Jackson, Christopher; Tvedt, Anette

    2018-01-01

    Faults grow via a sympathetic increase in their displacement and length (isolated fault model), or by rapid length establishment and subsequent displacement accrual (constant-length fault model). To test the significance and applicability of these two models, we use time-series displacement (D) and length (L) data extracted for faults from nature and experiments. We document a range of fault behaviours, from sympathetic D-L fault growth (isolated growth) to sub-vertical D-L growth trajectorie...

  19. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  20. Modelization of highly nonlinear waves in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Maïté; Ducrozet, Guillaume; Ferrant, Pierre

    2015-04-01

    The proposed work deals with the development of a highly non-linear model for water wave propagation in coastal regions. The accurate modelization of surface gravity waves is of major interest in ocean engineering, especially in the field of marine renewable energy. These marine structures are intended to be settled in coastal regions where the effect of variable bathymetry may be significant on local wave conditions. This study presents a numerical model for the wave propagation with complex bathymetry. It is based on High-Order Spectral (HOS) method, initially limited to the propagation of non-linear wave fields over flat bottom. Such a model has been developed and validated at the LHEEA Lab. (Ecole Centrale Nantes) over the past few years and the current developments will enlarge its application range. This new numerical model will keep the interesting numerical properties of the original pseudo-spectral approach (convergence, efficiency with the use of FFTs, …) and enable the possibility to propagate highly non-linear wave fields over long time and large distance. Different validations will be provided in addition to the presentation of the method. At first, Bragg reflection will be studied with the proposed approach. If the Bragg condition is satisfied, the reflected wave generated by a sinusoidal bottom patch should be amplified as a result of resonant quadratic interactions between incident wave and bottom. Comparisons will be provided with experiments and reference solutions. Then, the method will be used to consider the transformation of a non-linear monochromatic wave as it propagates up and over a submerged bar. As the waves travel up the front slope of the bar, it steepens and high harmonics are generated due to non-linear interactions. Comparisons with experimental data will be provided. The different test cases will assess the accuracy and efficiency of the method proposed.

  1. Modeling Regional Pollution Episodes With The Ctm Mocage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, A.; Brocheton, F.; Amodei, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

    Several regional ozone pollution episodes have been studied in the context of two recent extensive field campaigns in France: ESQUIF, in the Paris region and ES- COMPTE, in the vicinity of Marseilles. MOCAGE is an off-line multi-scale Chem- istry and Transport Model (CTM), driven by the operational numerical weather pre- diction models of Météo-France, ARPEGE and ALADIN. It covers from the global to the regional scale, by means of up to four levels of nested domains, and extends up to the middle stratosphere; thus, there is no need for external boundary conditions, neither on the horizontal or on the vertical. These original features allows to cover with MOCAGE a wide range of scientific applications, from routine air-pollution fore- casts to long-term simulations related to climate issues. The present study focuses on the simulation of regional-scale photo-oxidant episodes and on the impact on larger scales of the transport of ozone, of precursors and of reservoir species. The first ex- ample concerns a polluted episode of the ESQUIF campaign (IOP6). In addition to ground measurements, 8 flights have documented the situation, showing a diversity of chemical regimes. This variability is quite satisfactorily reproduced by the model. A special attention was also paid to vertical and horizontal exchanges, particularly to interactions between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. An interesting case of an ill-represented residual nocturnal plume in the simulation of ESQUIF IOP5 will be presented: during this IOP, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere was well characterized by four flights. Free troposphere concentrations of ozone appear to be well reproduced by the model, except for the intensity and vertical extent of a residual plume, which are overestimated. For the day after, in addition to a direct impact on surface concentrations, the simulated development of the boundary layer is found to be too slow ; both errors contribute to an

  2. Geophysical and geochemical regional evaluation and geophysical model for uranium exploration in the western part of Yanliao region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tengyao; Cui Huanmin; Chen Guoliang; Zhai Yugui

    1992-01-01

    The western part of Yanliao region is an important uranium metallogenic region. This paper summarizes the regional geophysical model for uranium exploration composed of prediction model for favourable area of mineralization and evaluation model for anomalies on the basis of aeromagnetic and aeroradiometric data interpretation and analysis of the data from carborane and ground gamma spectrometric survey, high accurate magnetic survey, VLF survey and α-collected film survey in mult-displiary research work. The prospective prediction for uranium metallogenesis in this region was also conducted

  3. Two-Step Production of Phenylpyruvic Acid from L-Phenylalanine by Growing and Resting Cells of Engineered Escherichia coli: Process Optimization and Kinetics Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Hou

    Full Text Available Phenylpyruvic acid (PPA is widely used in the pharmaceutical, food, and chemical industries. Here, a two-step bioconversion process, involving growing and resting cells, was established to produce PPA from l-phenylalanine using the engineered Escherichia coli constructed previously. First, the biotransformation conditions for growing cells were optimized (l-phenylalanine concentration 20.0 g·L-1, temperature 35°C and a two-stage temperature control strategy (keep 20°C for 12 h and increase the temperature to 35°C until the end of biotransformation was performed. The biotransformation conditions for resting cells were then optimized in 3-L bioreactor and the optimized conditions were as follows: agitation speed 500 rpm, aeration rate 1.5 vvm, and l-phenylalanine concentration 30 g·L-1. The total maximal production (mass conversion rate reached 29.8 ± 2.1 g·L-1 (99.3% and 75.1 ± 2.5 g·L-1 (93.9% in the flask and 3-L bioreactor, respectively. Finally, a kinetic model was established, and it was revealed that the substrate and product inhibition were the main limiting factors for resting cell biotransformation.

  4. Two-Step Production of Phenylpyruvic Acid from L-Phenylalanine by Growing and Resting Cells of Engineered Escherichia coli: Process Optimization and Kinetics Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Hossain, Gazi Sakir; Li, Jianghua; Shin, Hyun-Dong; Liu, Long; Du, Guocheng; Chen, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Phenylpyruvic acid (PPA) is widely used in the pharmaceutical, food, and chemical industries. Here, a two-step bioconversion process, involving growing and resting cells, was established to produce PPA from l-phenylalanine using the engineered Escherichia coli constructed previously. First, the biotransformation conditions for growing cells were optimized (l-phenylalanine concentration 20.0 g·L-1, temperature 35°C) and a two-stage temperature control strategy (keep 20°C for 12 h and increase the temperature to 35°C until the end of biotransformation) was performed. The biotransformation conditions for resting cells were then optimized in 3-L bioreactor and the optimized conditions were as follows: agitation speed 500 rpm, aeration rate 1.5 vvm, and l-phenylalanine concentration 30 g·L-1. The total maximal production (mass conversion rate) reached 29.8 ± 2.1 g·L-1 (99.3%) and 75.1 ± 2.5 g·L-1 (93.9%) in the flask and 3-L bioreactor, respectively. Finally, a kinetic model was established, and it was revealed that the substrate and product inhibition were the main limiting factors for resting cell biotransformation.

  5. Two-Step Production of Phenylpyruvic Acid from L-Phenylalanine by Growing and Resting Cells of Engineered Escherichia coli: Process Optimization and Kinetics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Hossain, Gazi Sakir; Li, Jianghua; Shin, Hyun-dong; Liu, Long; Du, Guocheng; Chen, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Phenylpyruvic acid (PPA) is widely used in the pharmaceutical, food, and chemical industries. Here, a two-step bioconversion process, involving growing and resting cells, was established to produce PPA from l-phenylalanine using the engineered Escherichia coli constructed previously. First, the biotransformation conditions for growing cells were optimized (l-phenylalanine concentration 20.0 g·L−1, temperature 35°C) and a two-stage temperature control strategy (keep 20°C for 12 h and increase the temperature to 35°C until the end of biotransformation) was performed. The biotransformation conditions for resting cells were then optimized in 3-L bioreactor and the optimized conditions were as follows: agitation speed 500 rpm, aeration rate 1.5 vvm, and l-phenylalanine concentration 30 g·L−1. The total maximal production (mass conversion rate) reached 29.8 ± 2.1 g·L−1 (99.3%) and 75.1 ± 2.5 g·L−1 (93.9%) in the flask and 3-L bioreactor, respectively. Finally, a kinetic model was established, and it was revealed that the substrate and product inhibition were the main limiting factors for resting cell biotransformation. PMID:27851793

  6. Modeling the explosion-source region: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glenn, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    The explosion-source region is defined as the region surrounding an underground explosion that cannot be described by elastic or anelastic theory. This region extends typically to ranges up to 1 km/(kt) 1/3 but for some purposes, such as yield estimation via hydrodynamic means (CORRTEX and HYDRO PLUS), the maximum range of interest is less by an order of magnitude. For the simulation or analysis of seismic signals, however, what is required is the time resolved motion and stress state at the inelastic boundary. Various analytic approximations have been made for these boundary conditions, but since they rely on near-field empirical data they cannot be expected to reliably extrapolate to different explosion sites. More important, without some knowledge of the initial energy density and the characteristics of the medium immediately surrounding the explosion, these simplified models are unable to distinguish chemical from nuclear explosions, identify cavity decoupling, or account for such phenomena as anomalous dissipation via pore collapse

  7. Implementation of a parallel version of a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstengarbe, F.W. [ed.; Kuecken, M. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Schaettler, U. [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main (Germany). Geschaeftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung

    1997-10-01

    A regional climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meterology and the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg based on the `Europa` and `Deutschland` models of the German Weather Service has been parallelized and implemented on the IBM RS/6000 SP computer system of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research including parallel input/output processing, the explicit Eulerian time-step, the semi-implicit corrections, the normal-mode initialization and the physical parameterizations of the German Weather Service. The implementation utilizes Fortran 90 and the Message Passing Interface. The parallelization strategy used is a 2D domain decomposition. This report describes the parallelization strategy, the parallel I/O organization, the influence of different domain decomposition approaches for static and dynamic load imbalances and first numerical results. (orig.)

  8. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  9. Melting ice, growing trade?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Bensassi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR. Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level.

  10. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2017-02-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  11. Zooming in on cirrus with the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanof, C.; Stefanof, A.; Beaulne, A.; Munoz Alpizar, R.; Szyrmer, W.; Blanchet, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Regional Climate Model plus a microphysical scheme: two-moments microphysics with three hydrometeor categories (cloud liquid water, pristine ice crystals and larger precipitation crystals) is used to test the simulation in forecast mode using ECMWF data at 0.4 X 0.4 degree. We are zooming in on cirrus at higher resolutions (9, 1.8, 0.36 km). We are currently using the data set measured in APEX-E3, measurements of radar, lidar, passive instruments and interpreted microphysics for some flights (G-II, C404, B200). The radar and lidar data are available for high level cirrus. The south west of Japon is the flight region. The dates are March 20, March 27 and April 2, 2003. We first focus on the March 27 frontal system. We did a rigorous synoptical analysis for the cases. The cirrus at 360 m resolution are simulated. The cloud structure and some similarities between model simulation and observations will be presented.

  12. Modulation of extremes in the Atlantic region by modes of climate variability/change: A mechanistic coupled regional model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2015-01-09

    During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: 1) Explored the parameter space of component models to minimize regional model bias 2) Assessed the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, focusing in particular on the role of the oceanic barrier layer 3) Contributed to the activities of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group 4) Assessed the impact of lateral and lower boundary conditions on extreme flooding events in the U.S. Midwest in regional model simulations 5) Analyzed the concurrent impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Atlantic Hurricane activity using observations and regional model simulations

  13. Methotrexate Toxicity in Growing Long Bones of Young Rats: A Model for Studying Cancer Chemotherapy-Induced Bone Growth Defects in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiaming Fan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The advancement and intensive use of chemotherapy in treating childhood cancers has led to a growing population of young cancer survivors who face increased bone health risks. However, the underlying mechanisms for chemotherapy-induced skeletal defects remain largely unclear. Methotrexate (MTX, the most commonly used antimetabolite in paediatric cancer treatment, is known to cause bone growth defects in children undergoing chemotherapy. Animal studies not only have confirmed the clinical observations but also have increased our understanding of the mechanisms underlying chemotherapy-induced skeletal damage. These models revealed that high-dose MTX can cause growth plate dysfunction, damage osteoprogenitor cells, suppress bone formation, and increase bone resorption and marrow adipogenesis, resulting in overall bone loss. While recent rat studies have shown that antidote folinic acid can reduce MTX damage in the growth plate and bone, future studies should investigate potential adjuvant treatments to reduce chemotherapy-induced skeletal toxicities.

  14. Optimization of Regional Geodynamic Models for Mantle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knepley, M.; Isaac, T.; Jadamec, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The SubductionGenerator program is used to construct high resolution, 3D regional thermal structures for mantle convection simulations using a variety of data sources, including sea floor ages and geographically referenced 3D slab locations based on seismic observations. The initial bulk temperature field is constructed using a half-space cooling model or plate cooling model, and related smoothing functions based on a diffusion length-scale analysis. In this work, we seek to improve the 3D thermal model and test different model geometries and dynamically driven flow fields using constraints from observed seismic velocities and plate motions. Through a formal adjoint analysis, we construct the primal-dual version of the multi-objective PDE-constrained optimization problem for the plate motions and seismic misfit. We have efficient, scalable preconditioners for both the forward and adjoint problems based upon a block preconditioning strategy, and a simple gradient update is used to improve the control residual. The full optimal control problem is formulated on a nested hierarchy of grids, allowing a nonlinear multigrid method to accelerate the solution.

  15. Globally covering a-priori regional gravity covariance models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Arabelos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity anomaly data generated using Wenzel’s GPM98A model complete to degree 1800, from which OSU91A has been subtracted, have been used to estimate covariance functions for a set of globally covering equal-area blocks of size 22.5° × 22.5° at Equator, having a 2.5° overlap. For each block an analytic covariance function model was determined. The models are based on 4 parameters: the depth to the Bjerhammar sphere (determines correlation, the free-air gravity anomaly variance, a scale factor of the OSU91A error degree-variances and a maximal summation index, N, of the error degree-variances. The depth of Bjerhammar-sphere varies from -134km to nearly zero, N varies from 360 to 40, the scale factor from 0.03 to 38.0 and the gravity variance from 1081 to 24(10µms-22. The parameters are interpreted in terms of the quality of the data used to construct OSU91A and GPM98A and general conditions such as the occurrence of mountain chains. The variation of the parameters show that it is necessary to use regional covariance models in order to obtain a realistic signal to noise ratio in global applications.Key words. GOCE mission, Covariance function, Spacewise approach`

  16. A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    are addressed in future research. Coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs. Brisson, E., K. Van Weverberg, M. Demuzere, A. Devis, S. Saeed, M. Stengel, N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2016. How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce 1 decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics? Clim. Dyn. (minor revisions). Prein, Andreas F., Wolfgang Langhans, Giorgia Fosser, Andrew Ferrone, Nikolina Ban, Klaus Goergen, Michael Keller, Merja Tölle, Oliver Gutjahr, Frauke Feser, Erwan Brisson, Stefan Kollet, Juerg Schmidli, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Ruby Leung. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 53:10.1002/rog.v53.2, 323-361

  17. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  18. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  19. Growing Safflower in Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Pace, M. G.; Israelsen, C. E.; Creech, E.; Allen, N.

    2015-01-01

    This fact sheet provides information on growing safflower in Utah. It has become popular on dryland farms in rotation with winter wheat. Safflower seed provides three products, oil, meal, and birdseed.

  20. The Economic Evaluation Model of the Use of the Intangible Resources Potential on the Example of Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Mikhalkina

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of assessing the potential use of intangible resources. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity of innovation-based economy, the growing role of intangible resources (human, social, organizational, intellectual and other kinds of capital in promoting economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. The paper proposes a verification method of the factors that characterize the potential use of intangible resources, affecting productivity. For a description of dependencies linear regression model was selected, also there was carried out an assessment of its parameters and performed Quality check of model. In the course of a capacity assessment intangible resource model constructing at the regional level was used regression analysis (the choice of indicator system, data collection and analysis, the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the choice of models and numerical estimation of its parameters, quality control model, assessment of the certain factors impact on the basis of the model. Also the factor analysis is used (matrix of factor loadings, and the classification on the basis of the factors selected regions is carried out. The regional clusterization of the intangible resources capacity will allow to make correct management decisions in the future.

  1. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  2. Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; McDonald-Buller, Elena; McGaughey, Gary; Kimura, Yosuke; Allen, David T

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation. Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with

  3. Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Steven P.; Rewis, Diane L.; Traum, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process.

  4. Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Outten

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES. It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings.

  5. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  6. AN ANALYTIC MODEL OF DUSTY, STRATIFIED, SPHERICAL H ii REGIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez-Ramírez, J. C.; Raga, A. C. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-543, 04510 D.F., México (Mexico); Lora, V. [Astronomisches Rechen-Institut, Zentrum für Astronomie der Universität, Mönchhofstr. 12-14, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Cantó, J., E-mail: juan.rodriguez@nucleares.unam.mx [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ap. 70-468, 04510 D. F., México (Mexico)

    2016-12-20

    We study analytically the effect of radiation pressure (associated with photoionization processes and with dust absorption) on spherical, hydrostatic H ii regions. We consider two basic equations, one for the hydrostatic balance between the radiation-pressure components and the gas pressure, and another for the balance among the recombination rate, the dust absorption, and the ionizing photon rate. Based on appropriate mathematical approximations, we find a simple analytic solution for the density stratification of the nebula, which is defined by specifying the radius of the external boundary, the cross section of dust absorption, and the luminosity of the central star. We compare the analytic solution with numerical integrations of the model equations of Draine, and find a wide range of the physical parameters for which the analytic solution is accurate.

  7. Comprehensive Regional Modeling for Long-Range Planning: Linking Integrated Urban Models and Geographic Information Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, Robert; de la Barra, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land us...

  8. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  9. Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

  10. Study of wine-growing land ('terroirs') characteristics in the canton of Vaud (Switzerland): modelization of the climatical parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pythoud, K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of a study on the viticultural terroirs of 'canton de Vaud', a climatic model integrating temperature, relief, radiation and pluviometry was built. The climate is defined by pluviometry and the thermical gradient. For standard needs, climatic parameters are determined at small scale (b 1/300'000), which is not accurate for the study of the mesoclimate. The adopted approach uses a digital elevation model with a resolution of 25 meters, the DEM25 of the Swiss Federal Office of Topography, at 1/25'000 scale. The thermical gradient is deduced from solar radiation, wind effect estimations and an empirical model of thermical altitudinal distribution. The radiation is calculated with a model that integrates the effects of the surrounding relief (slope, exposition and casted shadow) and the sun height above the horizon during a specific period. The relief shape and the principal wind directions based on a regional cartography allowed to estimate wind effect. Then climatic parameters are calculated for critical periods in the vineyard's vegetative cycle. A comparison with the map of thermical levels of 'canton de Vaud', determined on the basis of a phenological survey, allows to adjust the microclimate model. The rainfall distribution is the result of a data regionalization coming from Meteoswiss stations network. The calculation was based on the monthly rainfall values collected in the stations near or inside the vineyard during the last 30 years. The final climatic zoning is a weighting of the previous mentioned variables. Its value is more qualitative than quantitative. It offers however a comparison basis between the different regions concerned by the study

  11. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

    2006-10-15

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  12. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T.

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  13. Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

  14. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  15. EMMA model: an advanced operational mesoscale air quality model for urban and regional environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, R.S.; Rodriguez, M.A.; Cortes, E.; Gonzalez, R.M.

    1999-01-01

    Mesoscale air quality models are an important tool to forecast and analyse the air quality in regional and urban areas. In recent years an increased interest has been shown by decision makers in these types of software tools. The complexity of such a model has grown exponentially with the increase of computer power. Nowadays, medium workstations can run operational versions of these modelling systems successfully. Presents a complex mesoscale air quality model which has been installed in the Environmental Office of the Madrid community (Spain) in order to forecast accurately the ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide air concentrations in a 3D domain centred on Madrid city. Describes the challenging scientific matters to be solved in order to develop an operational version of the atmospheric mesoscale numerical pollution model for urban and regional areas (ANA). Some encouraging results have been achieved in the attempts to improve the accuracy of the predictions made by the version already installed. (Author)

  16. Do persistently fast-growing juveniles contribute disproportionately to population growth? A new analysis tool for matrix models and its application to rainforest trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuidema, Pieter A; Brienen, Roel J W; During, Heinjo J; Güneralp, Burak

    2009-11-01

    Plants and animals often exhibit strong and persistent growth variation among individuals within a species. Persistently fast-growing individuals have a higher chance of reaching reproductive size, do so at a younger age, and therefore contribute disproportionately to population growth (lambda). Here we introduce a new approach to quantify this "fast-growth effect." We propose using age-size-structured matrix models in which persistently fast and slow growers are distinguished as they occur in relatively young and old age classes for a given size category. Life-cycle pathways involving fast growth can then be identified, and their contribution to lambda is quantified through loop analysis. We applied this approach to an example species, the tropical rainforest tree Cedrela odorata, that shows persistent growth variation among individuals. Loop analysis showed that juvenile trees reaching the 10-cm diameter class at below-median age contributed twice as much to lambda as slow juvenile growers. Fast growth to larger-diameter categories also contributed disproportionately to lambda. The results were robust to changes in parameter values and life-history trade-offs. These results show that the fast-growth effect can be strong in long-lived species. Persistent growth differences among individuals should therefore be accommodated for in demographic models and life-history studies.

  17. MHD modeling of coronal loops: the transition region throat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarrasi, M.; Reale, F.; Orlando, S.; Mignone, A.; Klimchuk, J. A.

    2014-04-01

    Context. The expansion of coronal loops in the transition region may considerably influence the diagnostics of the plasma emission measure. The cross-sectional area of the loops is expected to depend on the temperature and pressure, and might be sensitive to the heating rate. Aims: The approach here is to study the area response to slow changes in the coronal heating rate, and check the current interpretation in terms of steady heating models. Methods: We study the area response with a time-dependent 2D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) loop model, including the description of the expanding magnetic field, coronal heating and losses by thermal conduction, and radiation from optically thin plasma. We run a simulation for a loop 50 Mm long and quasi-statically heated to about 4 MK. Results: We find that the area can change substantially with the quasi-steady heating rate, e.g., by ~40% at 0.5 MK as the loop temperature varies between 1 MK and 4 MK, and, therefore, affects the interpretation of the differential emission measure vs. temperature (DEM(T)) curves. The movie associated to Fig. 4 is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  18. Multi-model Ensemble Regional Climate Projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2016-12-01

    In this study, the future change in precipitation due to global warming is investigated over the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). A total of nine 30-year projections under multi-GCMs (CCSM, MPI, ACCESS) and multi-scenarios of emissions (Control, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are dynamically downscaled using the MRCM with 12km horizontal resolution. Since downscaled results tend to systematically overestimate the precipitation regardless of GCM used as lateral boundary conditions, the Parametric Quantile Mapping (PQM) is applied to reduce this wet bias. The cross validation for the control simulation shows that the PQM method seems to retain the spatial pattern and temporal variability of raw simulation, however it effectively reduce the wet bias. Based on ensemble projections produced by dynamical downscaling and statistical bias correction, a reduction of future precipitation is discernible, in particular during dry season (June-July-August). For example, intense precipitation in Singapore is expected to be reduced in RCP8.5 projection compared to control simulation. However, the geographical patterns and magnitude of changes still remain uncertain, suffering from statistical insignificance and a lack of model agreement. Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise programme. The Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling is an interdisciplinary research group of the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology

  19. Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caniëls, M.C.J.; Verspagen, B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D). The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical

  20. Fiducial-based registration with a touchable region model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungmin; Kazanzides, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Image-guided surgery requires registration between an image coordinate system and an intraoperative coordinate system that is typically referenced to a tracking device. In fiducial-based registration methods, this is achieved by localizing points (fiducials) in each coordinate system. Often, both localizations are performed manually, first by picking a fiducial point in the image and then by using a hand-held tracked pointer to physically touch the corresponding fiducial on the patient. These manual procedures introduce localization error that is user-dependent and can significantly decrease registration accuracy. Thus, there is a need for a registration method that is tolerant of imprecise fiducial localization in the preoperative and intraoperative phases. We propose the iterative closest touchable point (ICTP) registration framework, which uses model-based localization and a touchable region model. This method consists of three stages: (1) fiducial marker localization in image space, using a fiducial marker model, (2) initial registration with paired-point registration, and (3) fine registration based on the iterative closest point method. We perform phantom experiments with a fiducial marker design that is commonly used in neurosurgery. The results demonstrate that ICTP can provide accuracy improvements compared to the standard paired-point registration method that is widely used for surgical navigation and surgical robot systems, especially in cases where the surgeon introduces large localization errors. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can reduce the effect of the surgeon's localization performance on the accuracy of registration, thereby producing more consistent and less user-dependent registration outcomes.

  1. World population in transition : An integrated regional modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilderink, Henricus Bernardus Maria

    2000-01-01

    The world’s population reached the milestone of 6 billion in 1999 and increases by around 150 persons each minute. In the last few decades, population growth seen in the light of limited natural and economic resources has become of growing concern. Now, at the beginning of a new millennium,

  2. Approach of regional gravity field modeling from GRACE data for improvement of geoid modeling for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroishi, Y.; Lemoine, F. G.; Rowlands, D. D.

    2006-12-01

    The latest gravimetric geoid model for Japan, JGEOID2004, suffers from errors at long wavelengths (around 1000 km) in a range of +/- 30 cm. The model was developed by combining surface gravity data with a global marine altimetric gravity model, using EGM96 as a foundation, and the errors at long wavelength are presumably attributed to EGM96 errors. The Japanese islands and their vicinity are located in a region of plate convergence boundaries, producing substantial gravity and geoid undulations in a wide range of wavelengths. Because of the geometry of the islands and trenches, precise information on gravity in the surrounding oceans should be incorporated in detail, even if the geoid model is required to be accurate only over land. The Kuroshio Current, which runs south of Japan, causes high sea surface variability, making altimetric gravity field determination complicated. To reduce the long-wavelength errors in the geoid model, we are investigating GRACE data for regional gravity field modeling at long wavelengths in the vicinity of Japan. Our approach is based on exclusive use of inter- satellite range-rate data with calibrated accelerometer data and attitude data, for regional or global gravity field recovery. In the first step, we calibrate accelerometer data in terms of scales and biases by fitting dynamically calculated orbits to GPS-determined precise orbits. The calibration parameters of accelerometer data thus obtained are used in the second step to recover a global/regional gravity anomaly field. This approach is applied to GRACE data obtained for the year 2005 and resulting global/regional gravity models are presented and discussed.

  3. Regional analyses of labor markets and demography: a model based Norwegian example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T

    1998-01-01

    The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt

  4. Modeling Regional Soil Water Balance in Farmland of the Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying components of soil water balance in farmland of the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin is essential for efficiently scheduling and allocating limited water resources for irrigation in this arid region. A soil water balance model based on empirical assumptions in the vadose zone of farmland was developed and simulation results were compared/validated with results by the numerical model HYDRUS-1D. Results showed a good coherence between the simulated results of the water balance models and the HYDRUS-1D model in soil water storage, evapotranspiration, deep percolation and groundwater recharge, which indicated that the water balance model was suitable for simulating soil water movement in the study area. Considering the spatial distribution of cropping patterns, groundwater depth and agricultural management, ArcGIS was applied for the pre-/post-processing of the water balance model to quantify the spatial distribution of components of soil water balance in the major cropland in middle reaches of Heihe River Basin. Then, distributions of components of soil water balance in the major cropland under different water-saving irrigation practices during the growing season were predicted and discussed. Simulation results demonstrated that evapotranspiration of the main crops would be more prominently influenced by irrigation quota under deep groundwater depth than that under shallow groundwater depth. Groundwater recharge would increase with the increase of irrigation quota and decrease with the increase of groundwater depth. In general, when groundwater depth reached 3 m, groundwater recharge from root zone was negligible for spring wheat. While when it reached 6 m, groundwater recharge was negligible for maize. Water-saving irrigation practices would help to reduce groundwater recharge with a slight decrease of crop water consumption.

  5. Interactive 3D computer model of the human corneolimbal region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molvaer, Rikke K; Andreasen, Arne; Heegaard, Steffen

    2013-01-01

    in the limbal region: limbal epithelial crypts (LECs), limbal crypts (LCs) and focal stromal projections (FSPs). In all, eight LECs, 25 LCs and 105 FSPs were identified in the limbal region. The LECs, LCs and FSPs were predominantly located in the superior limbal region with seven LECs, 19 LCs and 93 FSPs...

  6. Observations and models of emissions of volatile terpenoid compounds from needles of ponderosa pine trees growing in situ: control by light, temperature and stomatal conductance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Peter; Eller, Allyson; Guenther, Alex; Monson, Russell K

    2014-09-01

    Terpenoid emissions from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa subsp. scopulorum) were measured in Colorado, USA over two growing seasons to evaluate the role of incident light, needle temperature, and stomatal conductance in controlling emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) and several monoterpenes. MBO was the dominant daylight terpenoid emission, comprising on average 87% of the total flux, and diurnal variations were largely determined by light and temperature. During daytime, oxygenated monoterpenes (especially linalool) comprised up to 75% of the total monoterpenoid flux from needles. A significant fraction of monoterpenoid emissions was dependent on light and 13CO2 labeling studies confirmed de novo production. Thus, modeling of monoterpenoid emissions required a hybrid model in which a significant fraction of emissions was dependent on both light and temperature, while the remainder was dependent on temperature alone. Experiments in which stomata were forced to close using abscisic acid demonstrated that MBO and a large fraction of the monoterpene flux, presumably linalool, could be limited at the scale of seconds to minutes by stomatal conductance. Using a previously published model of terpenoid emissions, which explicitly accounts for the physicochemical properties of emitted compounds, we were able to simulate these observed stomatal effects, whether induced experimentally or arising under naturally fluctuation conditions of temperature and light. This study shows unequivocally that, under naturally occurring field conditions, de novo light-dependent monoterpenes comprise a significant fraction of emissions in ponderosa pine. Differences between the monoterpene composition of ambient air and needle emissions imply a significant non-needle emission source enriched in Δ-3-carene.

  7. Observations and models of emissions of volatile terpenoid compounds from needles of ponderosa pine trees growing in situ: control by light, temperature and stomatal conductance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harley, Peter; Eller, Allyson; Guenther, Alex; Monson, Russell K.

    2014-07-12

    Terpenoid emissions from ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa subsp. scopulorum) were measured in Colorado, USA over two growing seasons to evaluate the role of incident light, needle temperature and stomatal conductance in controlling emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) and several monoterpenes. MBO was the dominant daylight terpenoid emission, comprising on average 87% of the total flux, and diurnal variations were largely determined by light and temperature. During daytime, oxygenated monoterpenes (especially linalool) comprised up to 75% of the total monoterpenoid flux from needles. A significant fraction of monoterpenoid emissions was light dependent and 13CO2 labeling studies confirmed de novo production. Thus, modeling of monoterpenoid emissions required a hybrid model in which a significant fraction of emissions was dependent on both light and temperature, while the remainder was dependent on temperature alone. Experiments in which stomata were forced to close using abscisic acid demonstrated that MBO and a large fraction of the monoterpene flux, presumably linalool, could be limited at the scale of seconds to minutes by stomatal conductance. Using a previously published model of terpenoid emissions which explicitly accounts for the physico-chemical properties of emitted compounds, we are able to simulate these observed stomatal effects, whether induced through experimentation or arising under naturally fluctuation conditions of temperature and light. This study shows unequivocally that, under naturally occurring field conditions, de novo light dependent monoterpenes can comprise a large fraction of emissions. Differences between the monoterpene composition of ambient air and needle emissions imply a significant non-needle emission source enriched in Δ-3-carene.

  8. Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-05-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed

  9. Growing Plants and Minds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, Ashley Lewis; Kamdar, Danae; Vidiksis, Regan; Goldstein, Marion; Dominguez, Ximena; Orr, Jillian

    2017-01-01

    Many preschool classrooms explore plant growth. However, because many plants take a long time to grow, it is often hard to facilitate engagement in some practices (i.e., since change is typically not observable from one day to another, children often forget their prior predictions or cannot recall what plants looked like days or weeks earlier).…

  10. Growing Backyard Textiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Eleanor Hall

    1975-01-01

    For those involved in creative work with textiles, the degree of control possible in texture, finish, and color of fiber by growing and processing one's own (perhaps with students' help) can make the experience rewarding. The author describes the processes for flax and nettles and gives tips on necessary equipment. (Author/AJ)

  11. Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

  12. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Ter Maat

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS, coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C, and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

    The simulations performed with the coupled regional model (RAMS-SWAPS-C are in good qualitative agreement with the observations. The station validation of the model demonstrates that the incoming shortwave radiation and surface fluxes of water and CO2 are well simulated. The comparison against aircraft data shows that the regional meteorology (i.e. wind, temperature is captured well by the model. Comparing spatially explicitly simulated fluxes with aircraft observed fluxes we conclude that in general latent heat fluxes are underestimated by the model compared to the observations but that the latter exhibit large variability within all flights. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relevance of the urban emissions of carbon dioxide for the carbon balance in this particular region. The same tests also show the relation between uncertainties in surface fluxes and those in atmospheric concentrations.

  13. The Challenge of Forecasting Metropolitan Growth: Urban Characteristics Based Models versus Regional Dummy Based Models

    OpenAIRE

    NA

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a study of errors in forecasting the population of Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the Primary MSAs of Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas and New England MAs. The forecasts are for the year 2000 and are based on a semi-structural model estimated by Mills and Lubelle using 1970 to 1990 census data on population, employment and relative real wages. This model allows the testing of regional effects on population and employment growth. The year 2000 forecasts are f...

  14. Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Claire A.; Goetz, Scott J.; Donato, David I.; Claggett, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a fine-scale (30 meter resolution) regional land cover modeling system, based on the SLEUTH cellular automata model, that was developed for a 257000 km2 area comprising the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin in the eastern United States. As part of this effort, we developed a new version of the SLEUTH model (SLEUTH-3r), which introduces new functionality and fit metrics that substantially increase the performance and applicability of the model. In addition, we developed methods that expand the capability of SLEUTH to incorporate economic, cultural and policy information, opening up new avenues for the integration of SLEUTH with other land-change models. SLEUTH-3r is also more computationally efficient (by a factor of 5) and uses less memory (reduced 65%) than the original software. With the new version of SLEUTH, we were able to achieve high accuracies at both the aggregate level of 15 sub-regional modeling units and at finer scales. We present forecasts to 2030 of urban development under a current trends scenario across the entire Chesapeake Bay drainage basin, and three alternative scenarios for a sub-region within the Chesapeake Bay watershed to illustrate the new ability of SLEUTH-3r to generate forecasts across a broad range of conditions.

  15. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  16. Hydrological modeling in semi-arid region using HEC-HMS model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study is to simulate rainfall-runoff in the semi-arid region of ... the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the SCS curve number is ... SCS unit hydrograph method have been applied to simulate the runoff rate.

  17. Pyrolysis Kinetic Modelling of Wheat Straw from the Pannonian Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Pešenjanski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The pyrolysis/devolatilization is a basic step of thermochemical processes and requires fundamental characterization. In this paper, the kinetic model of pyrolysis is specified as a one-step global reaction. This type of reaction is used to describe the thermal degradation of wheat straw samples by measuring rates of mass loss of solid matter at a linear increase in temperature. The mentioned experiments were carried out using a derivatograph in an open-air environment. The influence of different factors was investigated, such as particle size, humidity levels, and the heating rate in the kinetics of devolatilization. As the measured values of mass loss and temperature functions transform in Arrhenius coordinates, the results are shown in the form of saddle curves. Such characteristics cannot be approximated with one equation in the form of Arrhenius law. For use in numerical applications, transformed functions can be approximated by linear regression for three separate intervals. Analysis of measurement resulting in granulation and moisture content variations shows that these factors have no significant influence. Tests of heating rate variations confirm the significance of this impact, especially in warmer regions. The influence of this factor should be more precisely investigated as a general variable, which should be the topic of further experiments.

  18. Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Kienberger, Stefan; Hagenlocher, Michael; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel

    2016-03-31

    Despite the decline in malaria incidence due to intense interventions, potentials for malaria transmission persist in Rwanda. To eradicate malaria in Rwanda, strategies need to expand beyond approaches that focus solely on malaria epidemiology and also consider the socioeconomic, demographic and biological/disease-related factors that determine the vulnerability of potentially exposed populations. This paper analyses current levels of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda by integrating a set of weighted vulnerability indicators. The paper uses regionalisation techniques as a spatially explicit approach for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria. This overcomes the limitations of administrative boundaries for modelling the trans-boundary social vulnerability to malaria. The utilised approach revealed high levels of social vulnerability to malaria in the highland areas of Rwanda, as well as in remote areas where populations are more susceptible. Susceptibility may be due to the populations' lacking the capacity to anticipate mosquito bites, or lacking resilience to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By highlighting the most influential indicators of social vulnerability to malaria, the applied approach indicates which vulnerability domains need to be addressed, and where appropriate interventions are most required. Interventions to improve the socioeconomic development in highly vulnerable areas could prove highly effective, and provide sustainable outcomes against malaria in Rwanda. This would ultimately increase the resilience of the population and their capacity to better anticipate, cope with, and recover from possible infection.

  19. Modeling best practices in chronic disease management: the Arthritis Program at Southlake Regional Health Centre.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bain, Lorna; Mierdel, Sandra; Thorne, Carter

    2012-01-01

    Researchers, hospital administrators and governments are striving to define competencies in interprofessional care and education, as well as to identify effective models in chronic disease management. For more than 25 years The Arthritis Program (TAP) at Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket, Ontario, has actively practiced within these two interrelated priorities, which are now at the top of the healthcare agenda in Ontario and Canada. The approximately 135 different rheumatic conditions are the primary cause of long-term disability in Canada, affecting those from youth to the senior years, with an economic burden estimated at $4.4 billion (CAD$) annually, and growing. For the benefit of healthcare managers and their clients with chronic conditions, this article discusses TAP's history and demonstrable success, predicated on an educational model of patient self-management and self-efficacy. Also outlined are TAP's contributions in supporting evidence-based best practices in interprofessional collaboration and chronic disease management; approaches that are arguably understudied and under-practiced. Next steps for TAP include a larger role in empirical research in chronic-disease management and integration of a formal training program to benefit health professionals launching or expanding their interprofessional programs using TAP as the dynamic clinical example.

  20. Digital Image Analysis of Yeast Single Cells Growing in Two Different Oxygen Concentrations to Analyze the Population Growth and to Assist Individual-Based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginovart, Marta; Carbó, Rosa; Blanco, Mónica; Portell, Xavier

    2017-01-01

    Nowadays control of the growth of Saccharomyces to obtain biomass or cellular wall components is crucial for specific industrial applications. The general aim of this contribution is to deal with experimental data obtained from yeast cells and from yeast cultures to attempt the integration of the two levels of information, individual and population, to progress in the control of yeast biotechnological processes by means of the overall analysis of this set of experimental data, and to assist in the improvement of an individual-based model, namely, INDISIM- Saccha . Populations of S. cerevisiae growing in liquid batch culture, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions, were studied. A set of digital images was taken during the population growth, and a protocol for the treatment and analyses of the images obtained was established. The piecewise linear model of Buchanan was adjusted to the temporal evolutions of the yeast populations to determine the kinetic parameters and changes of growth phases. In parallel, for all the yeast cells analyzed, values of direct morphological parameters, such as area, perimeter, major diameter, minor diameter, and derived ones, such as circularity and elongation, were obtained. Graphical and numerical methods from descriptive statistics were applied to these data to characterize the growth phases and the budding state of the yeast cells in both experimental conditions, and inferential statistical methods were used to compare the diverse groups of data achieved. Oxidative metabolism of yeast in a medium with oxygen available and low initial sugar concentration can be taken into account in order to obtain a greater number of cells or larger cells. Morphological parameters were analyzed statistically to identify which were the most useful for the discrimination of the different states, according to budding and/or growth phase, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions. The use of the experimental data for subsequent modeling work was then

  1. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEORIES AND MODELS, A COMPARATIVE ANALYSE.CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva\tDHIMITRI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Local governance is a broad concept and is defined as the formulation and execution of collective action at the local level. The purpose of local government is to ensure effective and efficient use of public resources and service delivery at the level closest to citizens. Regional development is a new concept that aims to stimulate and diversify the economic activity of a country (region, to encourage investment in the private sector, to create a new jobs vacancy and improves living standards of the country. Regional development policies are a number of measures designed and promoted by the central and local administration, but the cooperation undertaken at the actors are in a different one, which included the private sector and civil society. At the center of these regional policies or practices is the use of efficient potential of each region, being particularly focused on business, means promoting the development of the new enterprises, promoting labor market and investment, improve the quality of environment, health , education and culture. Traditional objective of regional development policies is the reduction of territorial disparities for achieving a relative balance between economic and social levels of development in different areas in the national territory. Regional development is the actual task of local government units in Albania, and is one of the tasks and challenges of the future. Currently it takes a special importance in the context of European Union integration. Reforms have begun to change the system in 1990 in order to implement local democracy and decentralization principles that are present today. Inequalities that exist within the region and between them indicate that in some regions the economic potential is not being fully utilized, and that it reduces the overall performance in national level.

  2. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergamasco, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Budgell, W.P.

    2005-01-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays-a non-glacial period-appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution 01 working group I, n and In to the Third Assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense water formation sites ad as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean Jeep convection and open-sea ire formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  3. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  4. MODEL OF REGIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER: MAIN ACTORS, FRAMEWORK AND THEORY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alla LEVITSKAIA

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses potential mechanism of regional knowledge transfer in region with poorly developed innovation infrastructure (the Autonomous Territorial Unit Gagauzia, Republic of Moldova through interactions between regional major players of the Regional Innovation System - the educational and research institutions, small and medium enterprises (SMEs and local authorities. Solution of this problem can be found in modern studies of territories innovation development through the clustering processes. Through the empirical study - innovation potential analysis of local SMEs - we proposed advantage mechanism which focused on the one type of knowledge cluster – Innovation and Educational Cluster. The symbiosis of entrepreneurs, government agencies, educational institutions and business service providers with the regional core - University, allows to increasing exchange flows of innovative knowledge between all members of the cluster and distributing them to the entire region and beyond. The results and proposals of this study formed the basis of the “Program of increasing the innovation potential of Gagauz SMEs”.

  5. Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

    1979-06-01

    A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

  6. Amplitude Analysis and Modeling of Regional Phases in PNE Profiles in Northern Eurasia and Seismic Regionalization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morozov, Igor B; Li, Hongyan; Morozova, Elena; Duenow, Joel; Zheng, Haishan; Smithson, Scott B

    2006-01-01

    ... is necessary to use regional phases for nuclear test monitoring. Over the past decades, Russian scientists acquired a network of dense, linear, long range, three-component Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS...

  7. How to Grow Old

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bertrand Russell

    2008-01-01

    <正>1. In spite of the title, this article will really be on how not to grow old, which, at my time of life, is a much more important subject. My first advice would be to choose your ancestors carefully. Although both my parents died young, I have done well in this respect as regards my other ancestors. My maternal grandfather, it is true, was cut off in the flower of his youth at the age of sixty-seven,

  8. Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

  9. Stream Clustering of Growing Objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Zaigham Faraz; Spiliopoulou, Myra

    We study incremental clustering of objects that grow and accumulate over time. The objects come from a multi-table stream e.g. streams of Customer and Transaction. As the Transactions stream accumulates, the Customers’ profiles grow. First, we use an incremental propositionalisation to convert the multi-table stream into a single-table stream upon which we apply clustering. For this purpose, we develop an online version of K-Means algorithm that can handle these swelling objects and any new objects that arrive. The algorithm also monitors the quality of the model and performs re-clustering when it deteriorates. We evaluate our method on the PKDD Challenge 1999 dataset.

  10. Use of regional climate models data for groundwater recharge modelling in Baltic artesian basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, A.; Klints, I.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.

    2012-04-01

    Baltic artesian basin (BAB) covers about 480000 square kilometres. BAB includes territory of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and Baltic Sea. The closed hydrogeological mathematical model for the BAB is developed in University of Latvia and reference calculations made in steady state mode. No-flow boundary condition is applied on the bottom and side boundaries of BAB. Hydraulic head is fixed on the seabed and largest lakes, and along the main river lines. Main water supply wells also are presented in the model as a pointwise water extraction. Precipitation is the main source of the groundwater recharge in the BAB region. Infiltration parameterization is responsible for this water source in BAB model. During the early stage of calibration of BAB hydrogeological model an automatic calibration for the hydraulic conductivities of permeable layers and single infiltration rate was attempted. Performing BAB model calibration it was noted that the differences of calculated and observed hydraulic heads (used for calculating the calibration penalty function) can be reduced by introducing a spatially distributed infiltration model. The aim of the present study is improving of the infiltration model, as well as preserving a short computation time (several minutes) for the piezometric head. Direct solution of improvement of the infiltration would be a usage of the advanced hydrological models. However, an accurate hydrological model requires a lot of computational power. It should couple meteorological and hydrological parameters and requires additional calibration. The regional climate model (KNMI-RACMO2 25 km resolution) results from ENSEMBLES project are used for the spatially distributed infiltration field calculation. The infiltration field is constructed as weighted difference of 30 year averaged precipitation and evaporation fields. The weight value is calibrated and a considerable decrease of the value of penalty function of the groundwater

  11. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  12. The partial duration series method in regional index-flood modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    A regional index-flood method based on the partial duration series model is introduced. The model comprises the assumptions of a Poisson-distributed number of threshold exceedances and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes. The regional T-year event estimator is based on a regional...... estimator is superior to the at-site estimator even in extremely heterogenous regions, the performance of the regional estimator being relatively better in regions with a negative shape parameter. When the record length increases, the relative performance of the regional estimator decreases, but it is still...

  13. Experiments with a Regional Vector-Vorticity Model, and Comparison with Other Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konor, C. S.; Dazlich, D. A.; Jung, J.; Randall, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Vector-Vorticity Model (VVM) is an anelastic model with a unique dynamical core that predicts the three-dimensional vorticity instead of the three-dimensional momentum. The VVM is used in the CRMs of the Global Quasi-3D Multiscale Modeling Framework, which is discussed by Joon-Hee Jung and collaborators elsewhere in this session. We are updating the physics package of the VVM, replacing it with the physics package of the System for Atmosphere Modeling (SAM). The new physics package includes a double-moment microphysics, Mellor-Yamada turbulence, Monin-Obukov surface fluxes, and the RRTMG radiation parameterization. We briefly describe the VVM and show results from standard test cases, including TWP-ICE. We compare the results with those obtained using the earlier physics. We also show results from experiments on convection aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium, and compare with those obtained using both SAM and the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS).

  14. Response of growing bones to irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Gonzalez, D.

    1980-01-01

    This thesis describes the effects of ionizing radiations on growing bones. The epiphyseal disc of growing mouse tibia was selected as a model for the experiments. An attempt has been made to obtain clinical data from irradiated bones during the childhood and to quantitate this information. Within the range of possibilities correlations have been established between the experimental and clinical data. (Auth.)

  15. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.; McCabe, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  16. Effect of model resolution on a regional climate model simulation over southeast Australia

    KAUST Repository

    Evans, J. P.

    2013-03-26

    Dynamically downscaling climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for use in impacts and adaptation research has become a common practice in recent years. In this study, the CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM) to medium (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution over southeast Australia. The influence of model resolution on the present-day (1985 to 2009) modelled regional climate and projected future (2075 to 2099) changes are examined for both mean climate and extreme precipitation characteristics. Increasing model resolution tended to improve the simulation of present day climate, with larger improvements in areas affected by mountains and coastlines. Examination of circumstances under which increasing the resolution decreased performance revealed an error in the GCM circulation, the effects of which had been masked by the coarse GCM topography. Resolution modifications to projected changes were largest in regions with strong topographic and coastline influences, and can be large enough to change the sign of the climate change projected by the GCM. Known physical mechanisms for these changes included orographic uplift and low-level blocking of air-masses caused by mountains. In terms of precipitation extremes, the GCM projects increases in extremes even when the projected change in the mean was a decrease: but this was not always true for the higher resolution models. Thus, while the higher resolution RCM climate projections often concur with the GCM projections, there are times and places where they differ significantly due to their better representation of physical processes. It should also be noted that the model resolution can modify precipitation characteristics beyond just its mean value.

  17. Multislice quantitative computed tomography allows early detection of bone mineral density alterations induced by atherogenic diet in a growing rat experimental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubert, M.J.; Monforte, F.; Calo, C.; Lylyk, P.; Friedman, M.F.; Gamba, C.A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose. To demonstrate the utility of Multislice Quantitative Computed Tomography (MS-QCT) in the early detection of mandibular bone mineral density (BMD) alterations induced by an atherogenic diet in a growing rat experimental model. Materials and Methods. Male weanling Wistar rats (n =16) were divided by body weight (Wt) into 2 groups: control (C) and experimental (E), with no significant differences in the mean initial Wt (p>0.05). C was fed rodent stock diet ad libitum, and E an atherogenic diet for 3 weeks (3w). Zoometry (body weight and length) and diet intake (g/100g rat/day) were monitored. At 3 w in serum (mg/dL) lipidlipoprotein profile was studied: total cholesterol (t-C), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) and MSQCT (Philips 64 CT, quantified with the eFilm Workstation 2.1) in seven mandibular areas (MA): n. 1 to 4: from chin to mandibular foramen, n. 5: coronoid process, n. 6: condylar process, n. 7: angular process. Statistics: Pearson's correlation between BMD in each MA and serum t-C. p 0.05). Correlation coefficients (r) and their significance levels (p) were relevant in 5/7 MA. MA1:-0.580 (p=0.019), MA2:-0.709 (p=0.002), MA3:-0.635 (p=0.008), MA5:-0.674 (p=0.004), MA6:-0.564 (p=0.023). Conclusions. These results suggest that MS-QCT is an imaging diagnostic method that allows the early detection of mandible bone architecture alterations induced by an atherogenic diet. Inverse correlation between BMD and t-C would indicate an association between an atherogenic diet intake and potential temporomandibular disorders. (authors)

  18. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  19. The Regional Earth System Model (RegESM) using RegCM4 coupled with the MITgcm ocean model: First assessments over the MED-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariotti, Laura; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk; Farneti, Riccardo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Carillo, Adriana; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    In the framework of global climate studies, there is an increasingly growing concern about the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region, where high population density and intense exploitation activities pose severe questions on the sustainability of terrestrial water management, both for the present and the future. Ocean modeling studies suggest that the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation could be weakened in conditions of global greenhouse warming, an event which would undoubtedly affect regional climate, possibly triggering global feedback processes. Experiments with the atmosphere-ocean coupled system confirmed that a good comprehension of Mediterranean processes requires the explicit inclusion of the feedbacks between the atmospheric and the oceanic components, thus achieving a complete, fully coupled description of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle, at the same time gaining new insights in our current ability to reproduce the atmospheric hydrological processes and to close the hydrological balance. These issues are addressed by the upgraded PROTHEUS system which was jointly developed by ENEA and ICTP. Here we present a first evaluation of the performances of the new PROTHEUS system (called PROTHEUS 2.0) composed by the regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al. 2012) coupled with both the ocean model MITgcm (Marshall J. et al. 1997a,b) and the HD river model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998) using RegESM (Regional Earth System Model) as a driver. The three-component (atmosphere, ocean and river routing) fully coupled model exchanges sea surface temperature (SST) from the ocean to the atmospheric model, surface wind stress, energy and freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean model, surface and sub-surface runoff from the atmospheric component to the river routing model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). In order to have water conservation within the system, the river routing component sends the

  20. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  1. Modeling aquifer behaviour under climate change and high consumption: Case study of the Sfax region, southeast Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boughariou, Emna; Allouche, Nabila; Jmal, Ikram; Mokadem, Naziha; Ayed, Bachaer; Hajji, Soumaya; Khanfir, Hafedh; Bouri, Salem

    2018-05-01

    The water resources are exhausted by the increasing demand related to the population growth. They are also affected by climate circumstances, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. These areas are already undergoing noticeable shortages and low annual precipitation rate. This paper presents a numerical model of the Sfax shallow aquifer system that was developed by coupling the geographical information system tool ArcGIS 9.3 and ground water modeling system GMS6.5's interface, ground water flow modeling MODFLOW 2000. Being in coastal city and having an arid climate with high consumption rates, this aquifer is undergoing a hydraulic stress situation. Therefore, the groundwater piezometric variations were calibrated for the period 2003-2013 and simulated based on two scenarios; first the constant and growing consumption and second the rainfall forecast as a result of climate change scenario released by the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the German International Cooperation Agency "GIZ" using HadCM3 as a general circulation model. The piezometric simulations globally forecast a decrease that is about 0.5 m in 2020 and 1 m in 2050 locally the decrease is more pronounced in "Chaffar" and "Djbeniana" regions and that is more evident for the increasing consumption scenario. The two scenarios announce a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in "Djbeniana" region.

  2. Regional modeling of cadmium leaching to groundwater in the Kempen region, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Grift, B.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; Griffioen, J.

    2003-01-01

    Sandy soils in the border area of Belgium and the Netherlands (the Kempen region), are heavily contaminated with cadmium and zinc by atmospheric deposition from nearby smelters. Leaching of heavy metals from the topsoil is a major risk for groundwater contamination. The sandy soils in the Kempen

  3. High-Resolution Regional Phase Attenuation Models of the Iranian Plateau and Surrounding Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-03

    crustal structure or sediment thickness across much of the Iranian plateau. The lone exception is the region between the central Zagros and the Lut block...L11303, 2007. Meunier, P., N. Hovius, and J. A. Haines, Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides, Earth Planet . Sci

  4. Simulating carbon exchange using a regional atmospheric model coupled to an advanced land-surface model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ter Maat, H.W.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Miglietta, F.; Gioli, B.; Bosveld, F.C.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Fritsch, H.

    2010-08-01

    This paper is a case study to investigate what the main controlling factors are that determine atmospheric carbon dioxide content for a region in the centre of The Netherlands. We use the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), coupled with a land surface scheme simulating carbon, heat and momentum fluxes (SWAPS-C), and including also submodels for urban and marine fluxes, which in principle should include the dominant mechanisms and should be able to capture the relevant dynamics of the system. To validate the model, observations are used that were taken during an intensive observational campaign in central Netherlands in summer 2002. These include flux-tower observations and aircraft observations of vertical profiles and spatial fluxes of various variables.

  5. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  6. Improving Shade Modelling in a Regional River Temperature Model Using Fine-Scale LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Loicq, P.; Moatar, F.; Beaufort, A.; Melin, E.; Jullian, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Air temperature is often considered as a proxy of the stream temperature to model the distribution areas of aquatic species water temperature is not available at a regional scale. To simulate the water temperature at a regional scale (105 km²), a physically-based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream-downstream propagation of the thermal signal was developed and applied to the entire Loire basin (Beaufort et al., submitted). This model, called T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) is based on a hydrographical network topology. Computations are made hourly on 52,000 reaches which average 1.7 km long in the Loire drainage basin. The model gives a median Root Mean Square Error of 1.8°C at hourly time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008-2012). In that version of the model, tree shadings is modelled by a constant factor proportional to the vegetation cover on 10 meters sides the river reaches. According to sensitivity analysis, improving the shade representation would enhance T-NET accuracy, especially for the maximum daily temperatures, which are currently not very well modelized. This study evaluates the most efficient way (accuracy/computing time) to improve the shade model thanks to 1-m resolution LIDAR data available on tributary of the LoireRiver (317 km long and an area of 8280 km²). Two methods are tested and compared: the first one is a spatially explicit computation of the cast shadow for every LIDAR pixel. The second is based on averaged vegetation cover characteristics of buffers and reaches of variable size. Validation of the water temperature model is made against 4 temperature sensors well spread along the stream, as well as two airborne thermal infrared imageries acquired in summer 2014 and winter 2015 over a 80 km reach. The poster will present the optimal length- and crosswise scale to characterize the vegetation from LIDAR data.

  7. Nudging and predictability in regional climate modelling: investigation in a nested quasi-geostrophic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate and spectral nudging on the large and small scales of an idealized model simulation. The model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by the « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. The effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model" approach. Two sets of experiments are performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic Limited Area Model (LAM) where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. The study shows that the indiscriminate nudging time that minimizes the error at both the large and small scales is reached for a nudging time close to the predictability time, for spectral nudging, the optimum nudging time should tend to zero since the best large scale dynamics is supposed to be given by the driving large-scale fields are generally given at much lower frequency than the model time step(e,g, 6-hourly analysis) with a basic interpolation between the fields, the optimum nudging time differs from zero, however remaining smaller than the predictability time.

  8. CENOLOGIСAL MODEL OF THE REGION RESISTANCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.N. Kuzminov

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses a new methodological approach the study and management of a regional market environment based on cenological patterns. As the target is determined by the need to ensure structural balance and sustainability. Research tools and management adopted by the species analysis, which provided a measure of public exposure in order to create a sustainable competitive business environment of the region

  9. Room temperature housing results in premature cancellous bone loss in growing female mice: implications for the mouse as a preclinical model for age-related bone loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwaniec, U T; Philbrick, K A; Wong, C P; Gordon, J L; Kahler-Quesada, A M; Olson, D A; Branscum, A J; Sargent, J L; DeMambro, V E; Rosen, C J; Turner, R T

    2016-10-01

    Room temperature housing (22 °C) results in premature cancellous bone loss in female mice. The bone loss was prevented by housing mice at thermoneutral temperature (32 °C). Thermogenesis differs markedly between mice and humans and mild cold stress induced by standard room temperature housing may introduce an unrecognized confounding variable into preclinical studies. Female mice are often used as preclinical models for osteoporosis but, in contrast to humans, mice exhibit cancellous bone loss during growth. Mice are routinely housed at room temperature (18-23 °C), a strategy that exaggerates physiological differences in thermoregulation between mice (obligatory daily heterotherms) and humans (homeotherms). The purpose of this investigation was to assess whether housing female mice at thermoneutral (temperature range where the basal rate of energy production is at equilibrium with heat loss) alters bone growth, turnover and microarchitecture. Growing (4-week-old) female C57BL/6J and C3H/HeJ mice were housed at either 22 or 32 °C for up to 18 weeks. C57BL/6J mice housed at 22 °C experienced a 62 % cancellous bone loss from the distal femur metaphysis during the interval from 8 to 18 weeks of age and lesser bone loss from the distal femur epiphysis, whereas cancellous and cortical bone mass in 32 °C-housed mice were unchanged or increased. The impact of thermoneutral housing on cancellous bone was not limited to C57BL/6J mice as C3H/HeJ mice exhibited a similar skeletal response. The beneficial effects of thermoneutral housing on cancellous bone were associated with decreased Ucp1 gene expression in brown adipose tissue, increased bone marrow adiposity, higher rates of bone formation, higher expression levels of osteogenic genes and locally decreased bone resorption. Housing female mice at 22 °C resulted in premature cancellous bone loss. Failure to account for species differences in thermoregulation may seriously confound interpretation of studies

  10. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  11. Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

  12. Simplified two and fifty-one region state-based EEIO model comparison

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Supporting data for 2 region and 51 region models assessed in the manuscript "Exploring the relevance of spatial scale to life cycle inventory results using...

  13. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  14. Wind and Photovoltaic Large-Scale Regional Models for hourly production evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Mattia; Maule, Petr; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesosca...... of the transmission system, especially regarding the cross-border power flows. The tuning of these regional models is done using historical meteorological data acquired on a per-country basis and using publicly available data of installed capacity.......This work presents two large-scale regional models used for the evaluation of normalized power output from wind turbines and photovoltaic power plants on a European regional scale. The models give an estimate of renewable production on a regional scale with 1 h resolution, starting from a mesoscale...

  15. Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aithal, B. H.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and

  16. Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

    2005-03-01

    Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and

  17. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  18. Modelling of Asphalt Concrete Stiffness in the Linear Viscoelastic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurek, Grzegorz; Iwański, Marek

    2017-10-01

    Stiffness modulus is a fundamental parameter used in the modelling of the viscoelastic behaviour of bituminous mixtures. On the basis of the master curve in the linear viscoelasticity range, the mechanical properties of asphalt concrete at different loading times and temperatures can be predicted. This paper discusses the construction of master curves under rheological mathematical models i.e. the sigmoidal function model (MEPDG), the fractional model, and Bahia and co-workers’ model in comparison to the results from mechanistic rheological models i.e. the generalized Huet-Sayegh model, the generalized Maxwell model and the Burgers model. For the purposes of this analysis, the reference asphalt concrete mix (denoted as AC16W) intended for the binder coarse layer and for traffic category KR3 (5×105 controlled strain mode. The fixed strain level was set at 25με to guarantee that the stiffness modulus of the asphalt concrete would be tested in a linear viscoelasticity range. The master curve was formed using the time-temperature superposition principle (TTSP). The stiffness modulus of asphalt concrete was determined at temperatures 10°C, 20°C and 40°C and at loading times (frequency) of 0.1, 0.3, 1, 3, 10, 20 Hz. The model parameters were fitted to the rheological models using the original programs based on the nonlinear least squares sum method. All the rheological models under analysis were found to be capable of predicting changes in the stiffness modulus of the reference asphalt concrete to satisfactory accuracy. In the cases of the fractional model and the generalized Maxwell model, their accuracy depends on a number of elements in series. The best fit was registered for Bahia and co-workers model, generalized Maxwell model and fractional model. As for predicting the phase angle parameter, the largest discrepancies between experimental and modelled results were obtained using the fractional model. Except the Burgers model, the model matching quality was

  19. From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Feldmann

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available >Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

  20. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

  1. The growing fibroadenoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Linda M; Sara, Rana

    2015-01-01

    Fibroadenomas (FAs) are the most common tumors of the breast clinically and pathologically in adolescent and young women but may be discovered at any age. With increasing use of core biopsy rather than excision for diagnosis, it is now commonplace to follow these lesions with imaging. To assess the incidence of epithelial abnormalities (atypia, in situ or invasive, ductal or lobular malignancies) in FAs diagnosed by core biopsy and to re-evaluate the management paradigm for any growing FA. A retrospective review of the senior author’s pathology results over 19 years identified 2062 nodular FAs (biopsied by ultrasound or stereotactic guidance). Eighty-three core biopsied FAs were identified which subsequently enlarged. Twelve of 2062 of core biopsied nodules demonstrated atypia, in situ, or invasive malignancy (ductal or lobular) within or adjacent to the FA (0.58%). Eighty-three FAs enlarged and underwent either surgical excision (n = 65), repeat core biopsy (n = 9), or imaging follow-up (n = 9). The incidence of atypia, in situ or invasive malignancy was 0/83 (0%). Two enlarging FAs were subsequently surgically diagnosed as benign phyllodes tumors (PT). Malignancy in or adjacent to a core biopsied FA is rare. The risk of cancer in a growing FA is even rarer; none were present in our series. FAs with abnormal epithelial abnormalities require excision. Otherwise, FAs without epithelial abnormality diagnosed by core biopsy need no specific follow-up considering the negligible incidence of conversion to malignancy. The breast interventionalist must know how to manage discordant pathology results

  2. SOCIAL CROWDFUNDING: A NEW MODEL FOR FINANCING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana BERNARDINO

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crowdfunding is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of crowdfunding for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of crowdfunding on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we envisage to show the critical role of crowdfunding on regional development. The use of inferential techniques (Chi-square test, the Cramer’s V statistic, the Goodman and Kruskal λ and the odds ratio demonstrates that the use of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange platform was linked to the geographical location of the social venture as well as its geographical scope. Also, social ventures located on rural regions are more likely to use social crowdfunding platforms than social ventures located in urban areas. Further, the circumstance of having the social ventures acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using crowdfunding for financing social projects.

  3. MULTIDIMENSIONAL MODELING TOOL OF POTENTIAL EVALUATION OF REGION DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Володимир Олександрович ТІМОФЄЄВ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The results of Ukrainian research of western towns are proposed for evaluation of development potential of recreational tourism and the whole tourism industry. Socio-economic factors, climatic and natural factors, state and perspectives of infrastructure in the region, political and administrative stability were chosen as evaluation parameters. The conclusion was done concerning the obtained results of rating evaluation.

  4. THE MODELING OF DRUG ADDICTION PREVALENCE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Sirotin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The narcotization prevalence in Russia as whole and its regions is described. In order to provide the adequate models the clusters of regions on the level of their economic development are defined. For every group the regression model of drug addiction social distress is constructed. Modeling results allow to find the features of regions and the most significant factors determining the drug addiction prevalence.

  5. Modelling and mapping climate change adaptability in the historic tourism region of the Salzkammergut in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Stefan; Lang, Stefan; Pernkopf, Lena

    2017-04-01

    actual salt production site, some 800 km2 in size [Geuter 1913], it is now self-defined [Kurz 2006] as a magnet for tourism still steadily growing by attendance of municipalities on its northern fringe (2008: 54 municipalities, 2013: 59). The region is exemplarily for comparable regions in Austria or the Alps in terms of national/regional and transnational (UNFCCC) climate change adaptation strategies towards local/regional transfer and adjustment. Adaption remains an ambitious, cross-cutting issue with a range of societal areas and policy domains involved and to be integrated. The set of indicators to be chosen depends on the focus of the adaptation strategy. Here we focus on tourism, because it is of paramount importance for the well-being of the region from an economic point of view, but also from the perspective of sustainability and conservation of the historic heritage. In order to model the adaptive behaviour towards tourism, we work with the following twelve indicators: (1) bathing lakes / (2) skiing resorts, (4) connection to public transport, (10) bicycle ways, (5) average number of summer days / (6) heat days / (7) freezing days / (11) rain days, (8) temperature raise, (3) elevation a.s.l. / (9) slope, (12) cultural heritage. Using standardisation, we regionalise the set of indicators achieving a set of units that represent areas of uniform adaption behaviour, scaled to the policy scale and revealing in a spatial explicit manner the aggregated adaptability in terms of their potential to sustain tourism. The approach can be applied also to other transformative, yet strongly CC-affected mountain areas with a similar setting regarding their climate change adaptation potential. REFERENCES Folke, C. (2006) Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, pp. 253-267. Geuter, K. P. (1913) Illustrierter Führer durch das Salzkammergut und Salzburg mit Umgebung, Linz. IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment

  6. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  7. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  8. Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauker, F.

    1999-07-01

    A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

  9. Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

  10. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  11. REGION AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE BASIS OF OPTIMIZATION MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.P. Neganova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific substantiation of accommodation of an agricultural production of territorial divisions of region is a complex social-economic problem. The decision of this problem demands definition market-oriented criteria of an optimality. The author considers three criteria of optimality: maximum of profit; maximum of gross output without production costs and costs for soil fertility simple reproduction; maximum of marginal income. Conclusion is drawn that the best criterion of optimization of production is the maximum the marginal income (the marginal income without constant costs, which will raise economic and ecological efficiency of an agricultural production at all management levels. As a result of agricultural production optimization the Republic Bashkortostan will become self-provided and taking out (foodstuffs region of Russia. In this case the republic is capable to provide with food substances (protein, carbohydrates and etc. 5.8 – 6.5 million person. It exceeds a population of republic on 40 – 60 %.

  12. Estimasi Permintaan Agregat Regional Provinsi Jambi (Pendekatan Model Makro Ekonomi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huriyah

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The research objective was to analyzing fluctuations in aggregate demand growth variables are C, I, G, X, M and also regional gross domestic product for the year 1993-2010. To calculate and analyze some of the factors that affect the change of macro-regional components of aggregate demand in the years 1993-2010 Jambi Province. During the period 1993-2010 the economic growth rate Jambi average of 5 percent annually. Partially visible growth of household consumption by 23 percent investment by 18 per cent, 26 per cent of government spending, net exports of 43 percent. For calculate and analyze some factor that affect the change, here using regression equation with non log and log.

  13. Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

    OpenAIRE

    Jahn, Malte

    2015-01-01

    Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

  14. A fusion of top-down and bottom-up modeling techniques to constrain regional scale carbon budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeckede, M.; Turner, D. P.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Law, B. E.

    2009-12-01

    The effort to constrain regional scale carbon budgets benefits from assimilating as many high quality data sources as possible in order to reduce uncertainties. Two of the most common approaches used in this field, bottom-up and top-down techniques, both have their strengths and weaknesses, and partly build on very different sources of information to train, drive, and validate the models. Within the context of the ORCA2 project, we follow both bottom-up and top-down modeling strategies with the ultimate objective of reconciling their surface flux estimates. The ORCA2 top-down component builds on a coupled WRF-STILT transport module that resolves the footprint function of a CO2 concentration measurement in high temporal and spatial resolution. Datasets involved in the current setup comprise GDAS meteorology, remote sensing products, VULCAN fossil fuel inventories, boundary conditions from CarbonTracker, and high-accuracy time series of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Surface fluxes of CO2 are normally provided through a simple diagnostic model which is optimized against atmospheric observations. For the present study, we replaced the simple model with fluxes generated by an advanced bottom-up process model, Biome-BGC, which uses state-of-the-art algorithms to resolve plant-physiological processes, and 'grow' a biosphere based on biogeochemical conditions and climate history. This approach provides a more realistic description of biomass and nutrient pools than is the case for the simple model. The process model ingests various remote sensing data sources as well as high-resolution reanalysis meteorology, and can be trained against biometric inventories and eddy-covariance data. Linking the bottom-up flux fields to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations through the tr