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Sample records for models provide important

  1. How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

  2. Guide to Working with Model Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Katie; Hassel, Bryan C.

    Often a central feature of a school's improvement efforts is the adoption of a Comprehensive School Reform (CSR) model, an externally developed research-based design for school improvement. Adopting a model is only the first step in CSR. Another important step is forging partnerships with developers of CSR models. This guide aims to help schools…

  3. Importing CAD models into MONK and MCBEND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searson, K.; Fleurot, F.; Cooper, A. J.; Cowan, P.

    2009-01-01

    The direct use of Computer Aided Design (CAD) models in criticality and shielding codes has been a long standing goal for Sellafield Ltd. Such functionality could offer several advantages over the traditional method of text based modelling systems. Analysts would be able to take advantage of the advanced Graphical User Interface based modelling features provided by solid modelers, potentially reducing the costs associated with creating models in a format suitable for the analyst's criticality and shielding code. A prototype system has been developed that allows CAD models created in Autodesk Inventor or Solidworks to be used in criticality and shielding calculations. The system is based on the ANSI Initial Graphics Exchange Specification 5.3 standard and models are exported from the CAD software in Trimmed NURBS format. The format retains much more of the model's geometrical information than a format based on solid meshing techniques and avoids many of the associated problems such as large memory costs, surface approximations and void spaces. The time consuming and complex meshing process is also avoided. Runtime intersection calculations are performed using either a Bezier clipping process for NURBS based surface definitions, or by transforming the coordinate system through which the ray tracks for Surface of Revolution calculations. NURBS surfaces are therefore converted to Bezier form as the model is imported. In addition, the SR generatrix is, in general, converted to a 'strip tree' representation, allowing the SR intersection calculations to be performed with arbitrary generatrix shapes. Details of recent improvements to the Bezier clipping process are provided. Reduction in runtime of SR based Solidworks models over equivalent NURBS based Autodesk Inventor models is also demonstrated. (authors)

  4. Development of Model for Providing Feasible Scholarship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry Dhika

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The current work focuses on the development of a model to determine a feasible scholarship recipient on the basis of the naiv¨e Bayes’ method using very simple and limited attributes. Those attributes are the applicants academic year, represented by their semester, academic performance, represented by their GPa, socioeconomic ability, which represented the economic capability to attend a higher education institution, and their level of social involvement. To establish and evaluate the model performance, empirical data are collected, and the data of 100 students are divided into 80 student data for the model training and the remaining of 20 student data are for the model testing. The results suggest that the model is capable to provide recommendations for the potential scholarship recipient at the level of accuracy of 95%.

  5. Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel L.; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M.; Parravicini, Valeriano

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future. PMID:29503866

  6. Nuclear magnetic resonance provides a quantitative description of protein conformational flexibility on physiologically important time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmon, Loïc; Bouvignies, Guillaume; Markwick, Phineus; Blackledge, Martin

    2011-04-12

    A complete description of biomolecular activity requires an understanding of the nature and the role of protein conformational dynamics. In recent years, novel nuclear magnetic resonance-based techniques that provide hitherto inaccessible detail concerning biomolecular motions occurring on physiologically important time scales have emerged. Residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) provide precise information about time- and ensemble-averaged structural and dynamic processes with correlation times up to the millisecond and thereby encode key information for understanding biological activity. In this review, we present the application of two very different approaches to the quantitative description of protein motion using RDCs. The first is purely analytical, describing backbone dynamics in terms of diffusive motions of each peptide plane, using extensive statistical analysis to validate the proposed dynamic modes. The second is based on restraint-free accelerated molecular dynamics simulation, providing statistically sampled free energy-weighted ensembles that describe conformational fluctuations occurring on time scales from pico- to milliseconds, at atomic resolution. Remarkably, the results from these two approaches converge closely in terms of distribution and absolute amplitude of motions, suggesting that this kind of combination of analytical and numerical models is now capable of providing a unified description of protein conformational dynamics in solution.

  7. Direct Importance Estimation with Gaussian Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Makoto; Sugiyama, Masashi

    The ratio of two probability densities is called the importance and its estimation has gathered a great deal of attention these days since the importance can be used for various data processing purposes. In this paper, we propose a new importance estimation method using Gaussian mixture models (GMMs). Our method is an extention of the Kullback-Leibler importance estimation procedure (KLIEP), an importance estimation method using linear or kernel models. An advantage of GMMs is that covariance matrices can also be learned through an expectation-maximization procedure, so the proposed method — which we call the Gaussian mixture KLIEP (GM-KLIEP) — is expected to work well when the true importance function has high correlation. Through experiments, we show the validity of the proposed approach.

  8. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  9. Critically Important Object Security System Element Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Khomyackov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic model of critically important object security system element has been developed. The model includes mathematical description of the security system element properties and external influences. The state evolution of the security system element is described by the semi-Markov process with finite states number, the semi-Markov matrix and the initial semi-Markov process states probabilities distribution. External influences are set with the intensity of the Poisson thread.

  10. Animal models: an important tool in mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capilla, Javier; Clemons, Karl V; Stevens, David A

    2007-12-01

    Animal models of fungal infections are, and will remain, a key tool in the advancement of the medical mycology. Many different types of animal models of fungal infection have been developed, with murine models the most frequently used, for studies of pathogenesis, virulence, immunology, diagnosis, and therapy. The ability to control numerous variables in performing the model allows us to mimic human disease states and quantitatively monitor the course of the disease. However, no single model can answer all questions and different animal species or different routes of infection can show somewhat different results. Thus, the choice of which animal model to use must be made carefully, addressing issues of the type of human disease to mimic, the parameters to follow and collection of the appropriate data to answer those questions being asked. This review addresses a variety of uses for animal models in medical mycology. It focuses on the most clinically important diseases affecting humans and cites various examples of the different types of studies that have been performed. Overall, animal models of fungal infection will continue to be valuable tools in addressing questions concerning fungal infections and contribute to our deeper understanding of how these infections occur, progress and can be controlled and eliminated.

  11. Stable Isotope Analysis Reveals That Agricultural Habitat Provides an Important Dietary Component for Nonbreeding Dunlin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesley Joan Evans Ogden

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Although shorebirds spending the winter in temperate areas frequently use estuarine and supratidal (upland feeding habitats, the relative contribution of each habitat to individual diets has not been directly quantified. We quantified the proportional use that Calidris alpina pacifica (Dunlin made of estuarine vs. terrestrial farmland resources on the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia, using stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N of blood from 268 Dunlin over four winters, 1997 through 2000. We tested for individual, age, sex, morphological, seasonal, and weather-related differences in dietary sources. Based on single- (δ13C and dual-isotope mixing models, the agricultural habitat contributed approximately 38% of Dunlin diet averaged over four winters, with the balance from intertidal flats. However, there was a wide variation among individuals in the extent of agricultural feeding, ranging from about 1% to 95% of diet. Younger birds had a significantly higher terrestrial contribution to diet (43% than did adults (35%. We estimated that 6% of adults and 13% of juveniles were obtaining at least 75% of their diet from terrestrial sources. The isotope data provided no evidence for sex or overall body size effects on the proportion of diet that is terrestrial in origin. The use of agricultural habitat by Dunlin peaked in early January. Adult Dunlin obtained a greater proportion of their diet terrestrially during periods of lower temperatures and high precipitation, whereas no such relationship existed for juveniles. Seasonal variation in the use of agricultural habitat suggests that it is used more during energetically stressful periods. The terrestrial farmland zone appears to be consistently important as a habitat for juveniles, but for adults it may provide an alternative feeding site used as a buffer against starvation during periods of extreme weather. Loss or reduction of agricultural habitat adjacent to estuaries may negatively impact

  12. Fuel swelling importance in PCI mechanistic modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arimescu, V.I.

    2005-01-01

    Under certain conditions, fuel pellet swelling is the most important factor in determining the intensity of the pellet-to-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). This is especially true during power ramps, which lead to a temperature increase to a higher terminal plateau that is maintained for hours. The time-dependent gaseous swelling is proportional to temperature and is also enhanced by the increased gas atom migration to the grain boundary during the power ramp. On the other hand, gaseous swelling is inhibited by a compressive hydrostatic stress in the pellet. Therefore, PCMI is the net result of combining gaseous swelling and pellet thermal expansion with the opposing feedback from the cladding mechanical reaction. The coupling of the thermal and mechanical processes, mentioned above, with various feedback loops is best simulated by a mechanistic fuel code. This paper discusses a mechanistic swelling model that is coupled with a fission gas release model as well as a mechanical model of the fuel pellet. The role of fuel swelling is demonstrated for typical power ramps at different burn-ups. Also, fuel swelling plays a significant role in avoiding the thermal instability for larger gap fuel rods, by limiting the potentially exponentially increasing gap due to the positive feedback loop effect of increasing fission gas release and the associated over-pressure inside the cladding. (author)

  13. Health literacy in the "oral exchange": an important element of patient-provider communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouri, Sarah S; Rudd, Rima E

    2015-05-01

    Oral communication between health care providers and patients--the "oral exchange"--greatly impacts patient health outcomes; however, only recently have health literacy inquiries been incorporated into this field. This review examines the intersection between oral and aural literacy and the oral exchange. A systematic literature search was carried out. Papers published in English since 2003 that specifically examine oral/aural literacy and oral patient-provider communication were included. The search yielded 999 articles, 12 of which were included in this review. Three tools have been developed to measure either patient or provider oral/aural literacy. There is a discrepancy between patient and provider oral/aural literacy levels, and high literacy demand is associated with reduced patient learning. Low patient oral/aural literacy is associated with poor health outcomes. Two interventions have been developed to reduce literacy demand. This review demonstrates the critical role of oral and aural literacy in the oral exchange, the importance of reducing literacy demand, and the need for future research in this field. Recommendations include the use of plain language and teach-back by providers, as well as incorporation of awareness of oral and aural literacy into community programs and health care provider education and training. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Achieving universal health coverage in small island states: could importing health services provide a solution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Helen; Smith, Richard

    2018-01-01

    Background Universal health coverage (UHC) is difficult to achieve in settings short of medicines, health workers and health facilities. These characteristics define the majority of the small island developing states (SIDS), where population size negates the benefits of economies of scale. One option to alleviate this constraint is to import health services, rather than focus on domestic production. This paper provides empirical analysis of the potential impact of this option. Methods Analysis was based on publicly accessible data for 14 SIDS, covering health-related travel and health indicators for the period 2003–2013, together with in-depth review of medical travel schemes for the two highest importing SIDS—the Maldives and Tuvalu. Findings Medical travel from SIDS is accelerating. The SIDS studied generally lacked health infrastructure and technologies, and the majority of them had lower than the recommended number of physicians in a country, which limits their capacity for achieving UHC. Tuvalu and the Maldives were the highest importers of healthcare and notably have public schemes that facilitate medical travel and help lower the out-of-pocket expenditure on medical travel. Although different in approach, design and performance, the medical travel schemes in Tuvalu and the Maldives are both examples of measures used to increase access to health services that cannot feasibly be provided in SIDS. Interpretation Our findings suggest that importing health services (through schemes to facilitate medical travel) is a potential mechanism to help achieve universal healthcare for SIDS but requires due diligence over cost, equity and quality control. PMID:29527349

  15. Important considerations when providing mental health first aid to Iraqi refugees in Australia: a Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe Guajardo, Maria Gabriela; Slewa-Younan, Shameran; Santalucia, Yvonne; Jorm, Anthony Francis

    2016-01-01

    Refugees are one of the most vulnerable groups in Australian society, presenting high levels of exposure to traumatic events and consequently high levels of severe psychological distress. While there is a need for professional help, only a small percentage will receive appropriate care for their mental health concerns. This study aimed to determine cultural considerations required when providing mental health first aid to Iraqi refugees experiencing mental health problems or crises. Using a Delphi method, 16 experts were presented with statements about possible culturally-appropriate first aid actions via questionnaires and were encouraged to suggest additional actions not covered by the questionnaire content. Statements were accepted for inclusion in a guideline if they were endorsed by ≥90 % of panellists as 'Essential' or 'Important'. From a total of 65 statements, 38 were endorsed (17 for cultural awareness, 12 for cross-cultural communication, 7 for stigma associated with mental health problems, and 2 for barriers to seeking professional help). Experts were able to reach consensus about how to provide culturally-appropriate first aid for mental health problems to Iraqi refugees, demonstrating the suitability of this methodology in developing cultural considerations guidelines. This specific refugee study provided potentially valuable cultural knowledge required to better equip members of the Australian public on how to respond to and assist Iraqi refugees experiencing mental health problems or crises.

  16. Role modelling in medical education: the importance of teaching skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Annette; Oates, Kim; Goulston, Kerry

    2016-04-01

    By observation of role models, and participation in activities, students develop their attitudes, values and professional competencies. Literature suggests that clinical skills and knowledge, personality, and teaching skills are three main areas that students consider central to the identification of positive role models. The aim of this study was to explore junior medical students' opinions of the ideal attributes of a good role model in clinical tutors. The study was conducted with one cohort (n = 301) of students who had completed year 1 of the medical programme in 2013. All students were asked to complete a questionnaire regarding the ideal attributes of a good role model in a clinical tutor. The questionnaire consisted of seven closed items and one open-ended question. The response rate to the questionnaire was 265/301 (88%). Although students found all three key areas important in a good role model, students emphasised the importance of excellence in teaching skills. Specifically, students see good role models as being able to provide a constructive learning environment, a good understanding of the curriculum and an ability to cater to the learning needs of all students. Students see good role models as being able to provide a constructive learning environment While acknowledging the importance of a patient-centred approach, as well as clinical knowledge and skills, our findings reinforce the importance of the actual teaching abilities of role models within medical education. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Providing context for a medical school basic science curriculum: The importance of the humanities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Britta M; Vannatta, Jerry B; Scobey, Laura E; Fergeson, Mark; Humanities Research Group; Crow, Sheila M

    2016-01-01

    To increase students' understanding of what it means to be a physician and engage in the everyday practice of medicine, a humanities program was implemented into the preclinical curriculum of the medical school curriculum. The purpose of our study was to determine how medical students' views of being a doctor evolved after participating in a required humanities course. Medical students completing a 16-clock hour humanities course from 10 courses were asked to respond to an open-ended reflection question regarding changes, if any, of their views of being a doctor. The constant comparative method was used for coding; triangulation and a variety of techniques were used to provide evidence of validity of the analysis. A majority of first- and second-year medical students (rr = 70%) replied, resulting in 100 pages of text. A meta-theme of Contextualizing the Purpose of Medicine and three subthemes: the importance of Treating Patients Rather than a Disease, Understanding Observation Skills are Important, and Recognizing that Doctors are Fallible emerged from the data. Results suggest that requiring humanities as part of the required preclinical curriculum can have a positive influence on medical students and act as a bridge to contextualize the purpose of medicine.

  18. Cartographic modeling: The role and importance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikonović Vesna

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim and sense of cartographic modeling is to represent essential, typical and characteristically attributes of mapping territory. Cartographic modeling is applying in two phases: 1. trough theoretical modeling and creating mind models (by notice relevant factors of space, modeling is in cartographer’s mind and 2. trough practical modeling and making prototype model (continuing and objectification of mind model which one has bigger degree of concrezation and experimented role. The maps are mathematical and logical models, which are not just representing the contents of the real space, but also their specific and relational traits which can’t be seen at first sight. Atlas is modeled contexture contents of treated thematic of space on optimal map union. Atlases are higher form of cartography. Modern computer's technology and specific software make possible better and faster making of all kinds of maps, atlases and spatial analysis connections and relationships among all elements of contents from concrete space which is, until now, demand much more time or they can not imagine.

  19. The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, M; Graham, S; Bonacum, D

    2004-10-01

    Effective communication and teamwork is essential for the delivery of high quality, safe patient care. Communication failures are an extremely common cause of inadvertent patient harm. The complexity of medical care, coupled with the inherent limitations of human performance, make it critically important that clinicians have standardised communication tools, create an environment in which individuals can speak up and express concerns, and share common "critical language" to alert team members to unsafe situations. All too frequently, effective communication is situation or personality dependent. Other high reliability domains, such as commercial aviation, have shown that the adoption of standardised tools and behaviours is a very effective strategy in enhancing teamwork and reducing risk. We describe our ongoing patient safety implementation using this approach within Kaiser Permanente, a non-profit American healthcare system providing care for 8.3 million patients. We describe specific clinical experience in the application of surgical briefings, properties of high reliability perinatal care, the value of critical event training and simulation, and benefits of a standardised communication process in the care of patients transferred from hospitals to skilled nursing facilities. Additionally, lessons learned as to effective techniques in achieving cultural change, evidence of improving the quality of the work environment, practice transfer strategies, critical success factors, and the evolving methods of demonstrating the benefit of such work are described.

  20. Mathematical Modeling: Are Prior Experiences Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czocher, Jennifer A.; Moss, Diana L.

    2017-01-01

    Why are math modeling problems the source of such frustration for students and teachers? The conceptual understanding that students have when engaging with a math modeling problem varies greatly. They need opportunities to make their own assumptions and design the mathematics to fit these assumptions (CCSSI 2010). Making these assumptions is part…

  1. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  2. Do women's voices provide cues of the likelihood of ovulation? The importance of sampling regime.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Fischer

    Full Text Available The human voice provides a rich source of information about individual attributes such as body size, developmental stability and emotional state. Moreover, there is evidence that female voice characteristics change across the menstrual cycle. A previous study reported that women speak with higher fundamental frequency (F0 in the high-fertility compared to the low-fertility phase. To gain further insights into the mechanisms underlying this variation in perceived attractiveness and the relationship between vocal quality and the timing of ovulation, we combined hormone measurements and acoustic analyses, to characterize voice changes on a day-to-day basis throughout the menstrual cycle. Voice characteristics were measured from free speech as well as sustained vowels. In addition, we asked men to rate vocal attractiveness from selected samples. The free speech samples revealed marginally significant variation in F0 with an increase prior to and a distinct drop during ovulation. Overall variation throughout the cycle, however, precluded unequivocal identification of the period with the highest conception risk. The analysis of vowel samples revealed a significant increase in degree of unvoiceness and noise-to-harmonic ratio during menstruation, possibly related to an increase in tissue water content. Neither estrogen nor progestogen levels predicted the observed changes in acoustic characteristics. The perceptual experiments revealed a preference by males for voice samples recorded during the pre-ovulatory period compared to other periods in the cycle. While overall we confirm earlier findings in that women speak with a higher and more variable fundamental frequency just prior to ovulation, the present study highlights the importance of taking the full range of variation into account before drawing conclusions about the value of these cues for the detection of ovulation.

  3. Comprehensive Care For Joint Replacement Model - Provider Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model - provider data. This data set includes provider data for two quality measures tracked during an episode of care:...

  4. Importance of healthcare utilization and multimorbidity level in choosing a primary care provider in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik; Halling, Anders

    2014-01-01

    -test, correlations, and logistic regression modelling in four separate models. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The population (151 731) and all healthcare in Blekinge in 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Actively or passively listed in primary care, registered on 31 December 2007. RESULTS: Number of consultations (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1...... data (OR 2.11, 95% CI 2.08-2.15 and OR 2.14, 95% CI 2.11-2.17, respectively) than using data from all healthcare. Number of consultations and multimorbidity level were correlated and had similar associations with active listing in primary care. Modelling number of consultations, multimorbidity level...

  5. Providing information and enabling transactions: which website function is more important for success?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Janny C.; Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Bijmolt, Tammo H.A.; Krawczyk, Adriana

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we propose and test a chain of effects from website content, through informational and transactional success to overall website success and company performance. This framework enables us to determine the relative importance of the informational and transaction-related website

  6. The Importance of Sensory-Motor Control in Providing Core Stability Implications for Measurement and Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borghuis, Jan; Hof, At L.; Lemmink, Koen A. P. M.

    2008-01-01

    Although the hip musculature is found to be very important in connecting the core to the lower extremities and in transferring forces from and to the core, it is proposed to leave the hip musculature out of consideration when talking about the concept of core stability. A low level of co-contraction

  7. Contracts in the Classroom--Providing Undergraduate Business Students with Important "Real Life" Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denbo, Susan M.

    2005-01-01

    Many business law educators have recognized the importance of teaching students not only the rules of contract law, but the process of implementing these rules in the "real world" of business. This article discusses a contract negotiation exercise that enables students to apply the black letter law of contracts while at the same time honing their…

  8. A study on important factors influencing customer relationship management: A case study of Mobile service provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naser Azad

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Customers are considered as essential assets in any organizations including mobile services. During the past few years, mobile industry is growing rapidly and the competitions among business owners increases steadily. In this paper, we present an empirical investigation to find important factors influencing customer relationship management. The proposed study of this paper designs a questionnaire and distributes it among 253 customers in mobile industry in city of Tehran, Iran. All questions are designed in Likert scale and Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.816, which is relatively reliable value. There were 28 questions in this survey and the proposed study extracts five important factors including economic factors, communication skills, organizational resources, service capabilities and flexible market.

  9. The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care

    OpenAIRE

    Leonard, M; Graham, S; Bonacum, D

    2004-01-01

    Effective communication and teamwork is essential for the delivery of high quality, safe patient care. Communication failures are an extremely common cause of inadvertent patient harm. The complexity of medical care, coupled with the inherent limitations of human performance, make it critically important that clinicians have standardised communication tools, create an environment in which individuals can speak up and express concerns, and share common "critical language" to alert team members...

  10. Doping control, providing whereabouts and the importance of privacy for elite athletes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, D.; de Hon, O.; van Hilvoorde, I.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: To improve anti-doping efforts in sports, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) introduced the World Anti-Doping Program, in which (among others) regulations for providing athletes' whereabouts are described. Because the effectiveness and efficiency of this system depends on the

  11. Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment: A Maturity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luftman, Jerry; Brown, Carol V.; Balaji, S.

    This chapter presents a new model for assessing the maturity of a ­customer-provider relationship from a collaborative service delivery perspective: the Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment Maturity (CPSAM) Model. This model builds on recent research for effectively managing the customer-provider relationship in IT service outsourcing contexts and a validated model for assessing alignment across internal IT service units and their business customers within the same organization. After reviewing relevant literature by service science and information systems researchers, the six overarching components of the maturity model are presented: value measurements, governance, partnership, communications, human resources and skills, and scope and architecture. A key assumption of the model is that all of the components need be addressed to assess and improve customer-provider alignment. Examples of specific metrics for measuring the maturity level of each component over the five levels of maturity are also presented.

  12. Computerized analysis of isometric tension studies provides important additional information about vasomotor activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent M.B.

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration-response curves of isometric tension studies on isolated blood vessels are obtained traditionally. Although parameters such as Imax, EC50 and pA2 may be readily calculated, this method does not provide information on the temporal profile of the responses or the actual nature of the reaction curves. Computerized data acquisition systems can be used to obtain average data that represent a new source of otherwise inaccessible information, since early and late responses may be observed separately in detail

  13. Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ooteghem, Jan; Tesch, Tom; Verbrugge, Sofie; Ackaert, Ann; Colle, Didier; Pickavet, Mario; Demeester, Piet

    In order to address the increasing costs of providing care to the growing group of elderly, efficiency gains through eCare solutions seem an obvious solution. Unfortunately not many techno-economic business models to evaluate the return of these investments are available. The construction of a business case for care for the elderly as they move through different levels of dependency and the effect of introducing an eCare service, is the intended application of the model. The simulation model presented in this paper allows for modeling evolution of market shares of competing care providers. Four tiers are defined, based on the dependency level of the elderly, for which the market shares are determined. The model takes into account available capacity of the different care providers, in- and outflow distribution between tiers and churn between providers within tiers.

  14. THE VITAL IMPORTANCE OF PROVIDING SOUND SCIENTIFIC ADVICE TO POLICY MAKERS IN GOVERNMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Pearson

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The article gives an idea of the scope of professional activity of scientists working in the field of biosafety in terms of providing timely and effective advice for politicians and diplomats in the government. It should be acknowledged that politicians and diplomats are also involved in a varying degree with biosafety issues such as toxicological and biological weapons, formulated in the relevant Convention: Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. However taking into account their professional interests, they mightn’t have appropriate information on relevant events in these and other activities. The value of these activities of qualified scientists knowing the latest information in the field of biosafety is difficult to overestimate, as they have the possibility to analyze any situation on the range of relevant activities and use their knowledge to make informed proposals which could be acceptable for their co-worker scientists in other areas of biological science. For highly qualified scientists such activities appeared to be effective, it is a vital aspect of their professional activity, because such scientists are able to provide scientific advice, analyze and summarize relevant scientific aspects on a specific topic of interest for politicians and diplomats. Such an analysis should include identification of key elements that are relevant to a given scientific problem and should be formulated so as the consequences of the various elements of the Convention were clearly appreciated and understood by politicians and diplomats. In other words, the rele vant scientific aspects should be analyzed, summarized and presented in the context of the Convention, together with suggestions on what steps in this direction should be taken by politicians and diplomats.

  15. Know your public: the importance of the EMS provider in community and media relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvester, A

    1997-10-01

    In the hundreds, and even the thousands, of hours that are spent in EMS training, none of the time is dedicated to community relations and public information. You have learned how to provide a service, but not how to sell the product. We relate to stories about physicians who were unsuccessful because of a poor "bedside manner." The patient's perception of you has very little to do with your score on the final exam or the terminology used as you explain an illness. You are judged by the same rules by which store clerks, telephone operators, waitresses and all others in the field of public service are gauged everyday. You may never do great things, but you can do small things in a great way. Just calling 911 is not enough to save a life. The very idea that we can get everywhere in the nick of time to snatch victims from the jaws of death is a fallacy. You most be concerned with the training provided for the lay public as you are with your own continuing education. There is no better way to make your service more effective than to train your entire community to save lives. There are many reasons why you should know how to deal with the media. A strong relationship can be formed simply by knowing how to make their job easier. Following the golden rules for news releases and interviews help us all appear more professional. The career of an EMT is in metamorphosis. You have been accepted by the patients you served and your fellow members of the medical community. Now you must continue to evolve as practitioners; your skills must change to meet the demands of modern medicine, and your knowledge base must continue to increase as new information becomes available. The one thing that must remain the same is your total commitment to patient care.

  16. The importance of message framing for providing information about sustainability and environmental aspects of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van de Velde, Liesbeth; Verbeke, Wim; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Popp, Michael [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, 217 Agriculture Building, Fayetteville, AR 72701 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    With a looming energy crisis, energy conservation and attention to environmental problems are warranted. The transport sector experiences great challenges to introduce more environmental friendly renewable energy like biofuels. The majority of the Belgian people are asking for more information about this issue. Because individuals are sensitive to how information is presented, the choice of the message frame can significantly influence attitudes and behavioural intention. Because of the strengthening effect on both concern and PCE, our findings suggest that for the prevention of energy and environmental problems and the promotion of a more sustainable and environmental friendly energy consumption not the gravity of these problems and the possible disadvantages but the possibilities to overcome these problems (e.g. reduction of energy use, environmental friendly energy sources) have to be stressed. Men, higher educated people, people between 35 and 54 years old and people with the most pro-environmental attitude are less affected by the message frame, while the choice of the frame is more important when addressing women, people younger than 35 and older than 55 years, lower educated and less pro-environmental people. (author)

  17. The importance of message framing for providing information about sustainability and environmental aspects of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van de Velde, Liesbeth; Verbeke, Wim; Popp, Michael; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2010-01-01

    With a looming energy crisis, energy conservation and attention to environmental problems are warranted. The transport sector experiences great challenges to introduce more environmental friendly renewable energy like biofuels. The majority of the Belgian people are asking for more information about this issue. Because individuals are sensitive to how information is presented, the choice of the message frame can significantly influence attitudes and behavioural intention. Because of the strengthening effect on both concern and PCE, our findings suggest that for the prevention of energy and environmental problems and the promotion of a more sustainable and environmental friendly energy consumption not the gravity of these problems and the possible disadvantages but the possibilities to overcome these problems (e.g. reduction of energy use, environmental friendly energy sources) have to be stressed. Men, higher educated people, people between 35 and 54 years old and people with the most pro-environmental attitude are less affected by the message frame, while the choice of the frame is more important when addressing women, people younger than 35 and older than 55 years, lower educated and less pro-environmental people.

  18. The Importance of Providing Multiple-Channel Sections in Dredging Activities to Improve Fish Habitat Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Pin Chiu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available After Typhoon Morakot, dredging engineering was conducted while taking the safety of humans and structures into consideration, but partial stream reaches were formed in the multiple-channel sections in Cishan Stream because of anthropogenic and natural influences. This study mainly explores the distribution of each fish species in both the multiple- and single-channel sections in the Cishan Stream. Parts of the environments did not exhibit significant differences according to a one-way ANOVA comparing the multiple- and single-channel sections, but certain areas of the multiple-channel sections had more diverse habitats. Each fish species was widely distributed by non-metric multidimensional scaling in the multiple-channel sections as compared to those in the single-channel sections. In addition, according to the principal component analysis, each fish species has a preferred environment, and all of them have a wide choice of habitat environments in the multiple-channel sections. Finally, the existence of multiple-channel sections could significantly affect the existence of the fish species under consideration in this study. However, no environmental factors were found to have an influence on fish species in the single-channel sections, with the exception of Rhinogobius nantaiensis. The results show that providing multiple-channel sections in dredging activities could improve fish habitat environments.

  19. Modeling patients' acceptance of provider-delivered e-health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, E Vance; Lankton, Nancy K

    2004-01-01

    Health care providers are beginning to deliver a range of Internet-based services to patients; however, it is not clear which of these e-health services patients need or desire. The authors propose that patients' acceptance of provider-delivered e-health can be modeled in advance of application development by measuring the effects of several key antecedents to e-health use and applying models of acceptance developed in the information technology (IT) field. This study tested three theoretical models of IT acceptance among patients who had recently registered for access to provider-delivered e-health. An online questionnaire administered items measuring perceptual constructs from the IT acceptance models (intrinsic motivation, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness/extrinsic motivation, and behavioral intention to use e-health) and five hypothesized antecedents (satisfaction with medical care, health care knowledge, Internet dependence, information-seeking preference, and health care need). Responses were collected and stored in a central database. All tested IT acceptance models performed well in predicting patients' behavioral intention to use e-health. Antecedent factors of satisfaction with provider, information-seeking preference, and Internet dependence uniquely predicted constructs in the models. Information technology acceptance models provide a means to understand which aspects of e-health are valued by patients and how this may affect future use. In addition, antecedents to the models can be used to predict e-health acceptance in advance of system development.

  20. Tropical dry forest status and relative importance of woody flora, islands of Old Providence and Santa Catalina, Colombia, Southwestern Caribbean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linares, Jorge Ruiz; Fandino Orozco, Maria Claudia

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present evidence on the condition of the Dry Tropical Forest (DtF) in Old Providence. A chronological study was carried out in order to assess the land cover change in DtF between 1944 and 2005. Additionally, we established 109 plots 2 x 50 m, following the protocol by Gentry (1982); and species abundance models were fitted to the data. It is concluded that up to 2000 the forest recovered, yet, in 2005 it retreated to 1990 levels. The lognormal distribution suggests that the forest is indeed in good condition. Anacardiaceae is the family with the highest Importance Value Index (IVI) while Acacia collinsii is the species with the highest IVI.

  1. Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

    1996-01-01

    The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

  2. Bring Your Own Device - Providing Reliable Model of Data Access

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stąpór Paweł

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a model of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD as a model network, which provides the user reliable access to network resources. BYOD is a model dynamically developing, which can be applied in many areas. Research network has been launched in order to carry out the test, in which as a service of BYOD model Work Folders service was used. This service allows the user to synchronize files between the device and the server. An access to the network is completed through the wireless communication by the 802.11n standard. Obtained results are shown and analyzed in this article.

  3. Determining Predictor Importance in Hierarchical Linear Models Using Dominance Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Wen; Azen, Razia

    2013-01-01

    Dominance analysis (DA) is a method used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors that was originally proposed for linear regression models. This article proposes an extension of DA that allows researchers to determine the relative importance of predictors in hierarchical linear models (HLM). Commonly used measures of model adequacy in…

  4. Levels of Interaction Provided by Online Distance Education Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhih, Mohammed; Ossiannilsson, Ebba; Berigel, Muhammet

    2017-01-01

    Interaction plays a significant role to foster usability and quality in online education. It is one of the quality standard to reveal the evidence of practice in online distance education models. This research study aims to evaluate levels of interaction in the practices of distance education centres. It is aimed to provide online distance…

  5. Identifying the important factors in simulation models with many factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettonvil, B.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1994-01-01

    Simulation models may have many parameters and input variables (together called factors), while only a few factors are really important (parsimony principle). For such models this paper presents an effective and efficient screening technique to identify and estimate those important factors. The

  6. Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J. Champion

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data.

  7. A Model for the Growth of Network Service Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Service Provider O-D Origin-Destination POP Point of Presence UCG Unilateral Connection Game xiv THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xv EXECUTIVE...xvi We make use of the Abilene dataset as input to the network provisioning model and assume that the NSP is new to the market and is building an...has to decide on the connections to build and the markets to serve in order to maximize its profits. The NSP makes these decisions based on the market

  8. Conceptual Models of the Individual Public Service Provider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lotte Bøgh; Pedersen, Lene Holm; Bhatti, Yosef

    are used to gain insight on the motivation of public service providers; namely principal-agent theory, self-determination theory and public service motivation theory. We situate the theoretical discussions in the context of public service providers being transferred to private organizations......Individual public service providers’ motivation can be conceptualized as either extrinsic, autonomous or prosocial, and the question is how we can best theoretically understand this complexity without losing too much coherence and parsimony. Drawing on Allison’s approach (1969), three perspectives...... theoretical – to develop a coherent model of individual public service providers – but the empirical illustration also contributes to our understanding of motivation in the context of public sector outsourcing....

  9. Model of Providing Assistive Technologies in Special Education Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lersilp, Suchitporn; Putthinoi, Supawadee; Chakpitak, Nopasit

    2015-05-14

    Most students diagnosed with disabilities in Thai special education schools received assistive technologies, but this did not guarantee the greatest benefits. The purpose of this study was to survey the provision, use and needs of assistive technologies, as well as the perspectives of key informants regarding a model of providing them in special education schools. The participants were selected by the purposive sampling method, and they comprised 120 students with visual, physical, hearing or intellectual disabilities from four special education schools in Chiang Mai, Thailand; and 24 key informants such as parents or caregivers, teachers, school principals and school therapists. The instruments consisted of an assistive technology checklist and a semi-structured interview. Results showed that a category of assistive technologies was provided for students with disabilities, with the highest being "services", followed by "media" and then "facilities". Furthermore, mostly students with physical disabilities were provided with assistive technologies, but those with visual disabilities needed it more. Finally, the model of providing assistive technologies was composed of 5 components: Collaboration; Holistic perspective; Independent management of schools; Learning systems and a production manual for users; and Development of an assistive technology center, driven by 3 major sources such as Government and Private organizations, and Schools.

  10. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  11. Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Simon; Wardlaw, Jessica; Crouch, Susan; Carolan, Michelle

    2011-09-01

    Hospitals need to understand patient flows in an increasingly competitive health economy. New initiatives like Patient Choice and the Darzi Review further increase this demand. Essential to understanding patient flows are demographic and geographic profiles of health care service providers, known as 'catchment areas' and 'catchment populations'. This information helps Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to review how their populations are accessing services, measure inequalities and commission services; likewise it assists Secondary Care Providers (SCPs) to measure and assess potential gains in market share, redesign services, evaluate admission thresholds and plan financial budgets. Unlike PCTs, SCPs do not operate within fixed geographic boundaries. Traditionally, SCPs have used administrative boundaries or arbitrary drive times to model catchment areas. Neither approach satisfactorily represents current patient flows. Furthermore, these techniques are time-consuming and can be challenging for healthcare managers to exploit. This paper presents three different approaches to define catchment areas, each more detailed than the previous method. The first approach 'First Past the Post' defines catchment areas by allocating a dominant SCP to each Census Output Area (OA). The SCP with the highest proportion of activity within each OA is considered the dominant SCP. The second approach 'Proportional Flow' allocates activity proportionally to each OA. This approach allows for cross-boundary flows to be captured in a catchment area. The third and final approach uses a gravity model to define a catchment area, which incorporates drive or travel time into the analysis. Comparing approaches helps healthcare providers to understand whether using more traditional and simplistic approaches to define catchment areas and populations achieves the same or similar results as complex mathematical modelling. This paper has demonstrated, using a case study of Manchester, that when estimating

  12. Importance of predictor variables for models of chemical function

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Importance of random forest predictors for all classification models of chemical function. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Isaacs , K., M....

  13. National Water Model: Providing the Nation with Actionable Water Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggett, G. R.; Bates, B.

    2017-12-01

    The National Water Model (NWM) provides national, street-level detail of water movement through time and space. Operating hourly, this flood of information offers enormous benefits in the form of water resource management, natural disaster preparedness, and the protection of life and property. The Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center supplies forecasters and decision-makers with timely, actionable water intelligence through the processing of billions of NWM data points every hour. These datasets include current streamflow estimates, short and medium range streamflow forecasts, and many other ancillary datasets. The sheer amount of NWM data produced yields a dataset too large to allow for direct human comprehension. As such, it is necessary to undergo model data post-processing, filtering, and data ingestion by visualization web apps that make use of cartographic techniques to bring attention to the areas of highest urgency. This poster illustrates NWM output post-processing and cartographic visualization techniques being developed and employed by the Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center to provide national actionable water intelligence.

  14. The importance of trajectory modelling in accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.A.; Williams, J.A.; Hill, M.D.

    1988-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used at present or probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are linear: they take account of the wind speed but not the direction after the first hour. Therefore, the trajectory model is a more realistic description of the cloud's behaviour. However, the extra complexity means that the computing costs increase. This is an important factor for the MARIA code which is intended to be run on computers of varying power. The numbers of early effects predicted by a linear model and a trajectory model in a probabilistic risk assessment were compared to see which model should be preferred. The trajectory model predicted about 25% fewer expected early deaths and 30% more people evacuated than the linear model. However, the trajectory model took about ten times longer to calculate its results. The choice between the two models may depend on the speed of the computer available

  15. Do Cochrane reviews provide a good model for social science?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Konnerup, Merete; Kongsted, Hans Christian

    2012-01-01

    Formalised research synthesis to underpin evidence-based policy and practice has become increasingly important in areas of public policy. In this paper we discuss whether the Cochrane standard for systematic reviews of healthcare interventions is appropriate for social research. We examine...... the formal criteria of the Cochrane Collaboration for including particular study designs and search the Cochrane Library to provide quantitative evidence on the de facto standard of actual Cochrane reviews. By identifying the sample of Cochrane reviews that consider observational designs, we are able...... to conclude that the majority of reviews appears limited to considering randomised controlled trials only. Because recent studies have delineated conditions for observational studies in social research to produce valid evidence, we argue that an inclusive approach is essential for truly evidence-based policy...

  16. Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B. Saltman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A central problem in designing effective models of provider governance in health systems has been to ensure an appropriate balance between the concerns of public sector and/or government decision-makers, on the one hand, and of non-governmental health services actors in civil society and private life, on the other. In tax-funded European health systems up to the 1980s, the state and other public sector decision-makers played a dominant role over health service provision, typically operating hospitals through national or regional governments on a command-and-control basis. In a number of countries, however, this state role has started to change, with governments first stepping out of direct service provision and now de facto pushed to focus more on steering provider organizations rather than on direct public management. In this new approach to provider governance, the state has pulled back into a regulatory role that introduces market-like incentives and management structures, which then apply to both public and private sector providers alike. This article examines some of the main operational complexities in implementing this new governance reality/strategy, specifically from a service provision (as opposed to mostly a financing or even regulatory perspective. After briefly reviewing some of the key theoretical dilemmas, the paper presents two case studies where this new approach was put into practice: primary care in Sweden and hospitals in Spain. The article concludes that good governance today needs to reflect practical operational realities if it is to have the desired effect on health sector reform outcome.

  17. Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltman, Richard B; Duran, Antonio

    2015-11-03

    A central problem in designing effective models of provider governance in health systems has been to ensure an appropriate balance between the concerns of public sector and/or government decision-makers, on the one hand, and of non-governmental health services actors in civil society and private life, on the other. In tax-funded European health systems up to the 1980s, the state and other public sector decision-makers played a dominant role over health service provision, typically operating hospitals through national or regional governments on a command-and-control basis. In a number of countries, however, this state role has started to change, with governments first stepping out of direct service provision and now de facto pushed to focus more on steering provider organizations rather than on direct public management. In this new approach to provider governance, the state has pulled back into a regulatory role that introduces market-like incentives and management structures, which then apply to both public and private sector providers alike. This article examines some of the main operational complexities in implementing this new governance reality/strategy, specifically from a service provision (as opposed to mostly a financing or even regulatory) perspective. After briefly reviewing some of the key theoretical dilemmas, the paper presents two case studies where this new approach was put into practice: primary care in Sweden and hospitals in Spain. The article concludes that good governance today needs to reflect practical operational realities if it is to have the desired effect on health sector reform outcome. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  18. Exploring the Uptake of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception in South Dakota Women and the Importance of Provider Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Tess L; Briggs, Ashley; Hanson, Jessica D

    2017-11-01

    Long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) methods, including the intrauterine device (IUD) and the birth control implant, are the most effective form of prescribed birth control for pregnancy prevention. However, uptake of this highly effective form of birth control is slow. The purpose of this study was to explore use of the LARC methods in South Dakota women prescribed contraception and the importance of the provider in promoting this type of contraception. This was a cross-sectional study of female patients who had been prescribed contraception at one of five locations in a South Dakota hospital system. Records were obtained through electronic health records for a six-month period. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi-square with counts and percentages. Logistic regression was used to determine differences in LARC prescriptions by patient age and provider title. A total of 2,174 individual patients were included in analysis. Of the 378 (17.4 percent) who were prescribed LARC methods, most (78.6 percent) were prescribed an IUD. Younger women (aged 11-19) were less likely to be prescribed LARCs compared to women aged 30-34. There were also significant differences in LARC prescriptions by provider type. Futhermore, we noted differences in LARC prescriptions for a provider who received a specific education and training on LARC from the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology. There are many important factors to consider by the patient when choosing the most appropriate contraceptive method, including safety, effectiveness, accessibility, and affordability. Provider education may play an important role in promoting LARC methods.

  19. Providing surgical care in Somalia: A model of task shifting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Kathryn M; Ford, Nathan P; Trelles, Miguel

    2011-07-15

    Somalia is one of the most political unstable countries in the world. Ongoing insecurity has forced an inconsistent medical response by the international community, with little data collection. This paper describes the "remote" model of surgical care by Medecins Sans Frontieres, in Guri-El, Somalia. The challenges of providing the necessary prerequisites for safe surgery are discussed as well as the successes and limitations of task shifting in this resource-limited context. In January 2006, MSF opened a project in Guri-El located between Mogadishu and Galcayo. The objectives were to reduce mortality due to complications of pregnancy and childbirth and from violent and non-violent trauma. At the start of the program, expatriate surgeons and anesthesiologists established safe surgical practices and performed surgical procedures. After January 2008, expatriates were evacuated due to insecurity and surgical care has been provided by local Somalian doctors and nurses with periodic supervisory visits from expatriate staff. Between October 2006 and December 2009, 2086 operations were performed on 1602 patients. The majority (1049, 65%) were male and the median age was 22 (interquartile range, 17-30). 1460 (70%) of interventions were emergent. Trauma accounted for 76% (1585) of all surgical pathology; gunshot wounds accounted for 89% (584) of violent injuries. Operative mortality (0.5% of all surgical interventions) was not higher when Somalian staff provided care compared to when expatriate surgeons and anesthesiologists. The delivery of surgical care in any conflict-settings is difficult, but in situations where international support is limited, the challenges are more extreme. In this model, task shifting, or the provision of services by less trained cadres, was utilized and peri-operative mortality remained low demonstrating that safe surgical practices can be accomplished even without the presence of fully trained surgeon and anesthesiologists. If security improves

  20. Evaluating a nurse-led model for providing neonatal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents an overview of a multi-dimensional, prospective, comparative 5-year audit of the quality of the neonatal care provided by a maternity unit in the UK delivering 2000 babies a year, where all neonatal care after 1995 was provided by advanced neonatal nurse practitioners, in relation to that provided by a range of other medically staffed comparator units. The audit includes 11 separate comparative studies supervised by a panel of independent external advisors. Data on intrapartum and neonatal mortality is reported. A review of resuscitation at birth, and a two-tier confidential inquiry into sentinel events in six units were carried out. The reliability of the routine predischarge neonatal examination was studied and, in particular, the recognition of congenital heart disease. A review of the quality of postdischarge letters was undertaken alongside an interview survey to elicit parental views on care provision. An audit of all hospital readmissions within 28 days of birth is reported. Other areas of study include management of staff stress, perceived adequacy of the training of nurse practitioners coming into post, and an assessment of unit costs. Intrapartum and neonatal death among women with a singleton pregnancy originally booked for delivery in Ashington fell 39% between 1991-1995 and 1996-2000 (5.12 vs. 3.11 deaths per 1000 births); the decline for the whole region was 27% (4.10 vs. 2.99). By all other indicators the quality of care in the nurse-managed unit was as good as, or better than, that in the medically staffed comparator units. An appropriately trained, stable team with a store of experience can deliver cot-side care of a higher quality than staff rostered to this task for a few months to gain experience, and this is probably more important than their medical or nursing background. Factors limiting the on-site availability of medical staff with paediatric expertise do not need to dictate the future disposition of maternity services.

  1. An improved mixing model providing joint statistics of scalar and scalar dissipation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Daniel W. [Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Jenny, Patrick [Institute of Fluid Dynamics, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2008-11-15

    For the calculation of nonpremixed turbulent flames with thin reaction zones the joint probability density function (PDF) of the mixture fraction and its dissipation rate plays an important role. The corresponding PDF transport equation involves a mixing model for the closure of the molecular mixing term. Here, the parameterized scalar profile (PSP) mixing model is extended to provide the required joint statistics. Model predictions are validated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data of a passive scalar mixing in a statistically homogeneous turbulent flow. Comparisons between the DNS and the model predictions are provided, which involve different initial scalar-field lengthscales. (author)

  2. Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brynjarsdóttir, Jenný; O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    Science-based simulation models are widely used to predict the behavior of complex physical systems. It is also common to use observations of the physical system to solve the inverse problem, that is, to learn about the values of parameters within the model, a process which is often called calibration. The main goal of calibration is usually to improve the predictive performance of the simulator but the values of the parameters in the model may also be of intrinsic scientific interest in their own right. In order to make appropriate use of observations of the physical system it is important to recognize model discrepancy, the difference between reality and the simulator output. We illustrate through a simple example that an analysis that does not account for model discrepancy may lead to biased and over-confident parameter estimates and predictions. The challenge with incorporating model discrepancy in statistical inverse problems is being confounded with calibration parameters, which will only be resolved with meaningful priors. For our simple example, we model the model-discrepancy via a Gaussian process and demonstrate that through accounting for model discrepancy our prediction within the range of data is correct. However, only with realistic priors on the model discrepancy do we uncover the true parameter values. Through theoretical arguments we show that these findings are typical of the general problem of learning about physical parameters and the underlying physical system using science-based mechanistic models. (paper)

  3. Solitary mammals provide an animal model for autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reser, Jared Edward

    2014-02-01

    Species of solitary mammals are known to exhibit specialized, neurological adaptations that prepare them to focus working memory on food procurement and survival rather than on social interaction. Solitary and nonmonogamous mammals, which do not form strong social bonds, have been documented to exhibit behaviors and biomarkers that are similar to endophenotypes in autism. Both individuals on the autism spectrum and certain solitary mammals have been reported to be low on measures of affiliative need, bodily expressiveness, bonding and attachment, direct and shared gazing, emotional engagement, conspecific recognition, partner preference, separation distress, and social approach behavior. Solitary mammals also exhibit certain biomarkers that are characteristic of autism, including diminished oxytocin and vasopressin signaling, dysregulation of the endogenous opioid system, increased Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA) activity to social encounters, and reduced HPA activity to separation and isolation. The extent of these similarities suggests that solitary mammals may offer a useful model of autism spectrum disorders and an opportunity for investigating genetic and epigenetic etiological factors. If the brain in autism can be shown to exhibit distinct homologous or homoplastic similarities to the brains of solitary animals, it will reveal that they may be central to the phenotype and should be targeted for further investigation. Research of the neurological, cellular, and molecular basis of these specializations in other mammals may provide insight for behavioral analysis, communication intervention, and psychopharmacology for autism.

  4. Model calculations of nuclear data for biologically-important elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chadwick, M.B.; Blann, M.; Reffo, G.; Young, P.G.

    1994-05-01

    We describe calculations of neutron-induced reactions on carbon and oxygen for incident energies up to 70 MeV, the relevant clinical energy in radiation neutron therapy. Our calculations using the FKK-GNASH, GNASH, and ALICE codes are compared with experimental measurements, and their usefulness for modeling reactions on biologically-important elements is assessed

  5. Brazilian N2 laser similar to imported models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, P.A.M. dos; Tavares Junior, A.D.; Silva Reis, H. da; Tagliaferri, A.A.; Massone, C.A.

    1981-09-01

    The development of a high power N 2 Laser, similar to imported models but built enterely with Brazilian materials is described. The prototype shows pulse repetitivity that varies from 1 to 50 per second and has a peak power of 500 kW. (Author) [pt

  6. Private Sector An Important But Not Dominant Provider Of Key Health Services In Low- And Middle-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grépin, Karen A

    2016-07-01

    There is debate about the role of the private sector in providing services in the health systems of low- and middle-income countries and about how the private sector could help achieve the goal of universal health coverage. Yet the role that the private sector plays in the delivery of health services is poorly understood. Using data for the period 1990-2013 from 205 Demographic and Health Surveys in seventy low- and middle-income countries, I analyzed the use of the private sector for the treatment of diarrhea and of fever or cough in children, for antenatal care, for institutional deliveries, and as a source of modern contraception for women. I found that private providers were the dominant source of treatment for childhood illnesses but not for the other services. I also found no evidence of increased use of the private sector over time. There is tremendous variation in use of the private sector across countries and health services. Urban and wealthier women disproportionately use the private sector, compared to rural and poorer women. The private sector plays an important role in providing coverage, but strategies to further engage the sector, if they are to be effective, will need to take into consideration the variation in its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  7. Transthoracic Echocardiography Provides Important Long-Term Prognostic Information in Selected Patients Undergoing Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Driscoll, Jamie M; Bahia, Sandeep S; Gravina, Angela; Di Fino, Sara; Thompson, Matthew M; Karthikesalingam, Alan; Holt, Peter J E; Sharma, Rajan

    2016-02-01

    The value of performing transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) as part of the clinical assessment of patients awaiting endovascular repair of the abdominal aorta is little evaluated. We aimed to estimate the prognostic importance of information derived from TTE on long-term all-cause mortality in a selected group of patients undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair. This was a retrospective cohort study of 273 consecutive patients selected for endovascular aneurysm repair. All patients included in the analysis underwent TTE before their procedure. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of TTE measures on all-cause mortality. Over a mean follow-up of 3.2±1.5 years, there were 78 deaths with a mean time to death of 1.28±1.16 years. A greater tubular ascending aorta (hazard ratio [HR] 5.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.77-11.33), presence of mitral regurgitation (HR 8.13, 95% CI 4.09-12.16), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.98), younger age (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), and presence of diabetes mellitus (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24-1.89) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Echocardiography provides important long-term prognostic information in patients undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair. These TTE indices were more important at predicting outcome than standard conventional risk factors in this patient group. A greater tubular ascending aorta, presence of mitral regurgitation, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, younger age, and diabetes mellitus were independently associated with long-term mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. The Importance of Protons in Reactive Transport Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeece, C. J.; Hesse, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The importance of pH in aqueous chemistry is evident; yet, its role in reactive transport is complex. Consider a column flow experiment through silica glass beads. Take the column to be saturated and flowing with solution of a distinct pH. An instantaneous change in the influent solution pH can yield a breakthrough curve with both a rarefaction and shock component (composite wave). This behavior is unique among aqueous ions in transport and is more complex than intuition would tell. Analysis of the hyperbolic limit of this physical system can explain these first order transport phenomenon. This analysis shows that transport behavior is heavily dependent on the shape of the adsorption isotherm. Hence it is clear that accurate surface chemistry models are important in reactive transport. The proton adsorption isotherm has nonconstant concavity due to the proton's ability to partition into hydroxide. An eigenvalue analysis shows that an inflection point in the adsorption isotherm allows the development of composite waves. We use electrostatic surface complexation models to calculate realistic proton adsorption isotherms. Surface characteristics such as specific surface area, and surface site density were determined experimentally. We validate the model by comparison against silica glass bead flow through experiments. When coupled to surface complexation models, the transport equation captures the timing and behavior of breakthrough curves markedly better than with commonly used Langmuir assumptions. Furthermore, we use the adsorption isotherm to predict, a priori, the transport behavior of protons across pH composition space. Expansion of the model to multicomponent systems shows that proton adsorption can force composite waves to develop in the breakthrough curves of ions that would not otherwise exhibit such behavior. Given the abundance of reactive surfaces in nature and the nonlinearity of chemical systems, we conclude that building a greater understanding of

  9. IMPORTANCE OF PROBLEM SETTING BEFORE DEVELOPING A BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS

    OpenAIRE

    Bekhradi , Alborz; Yannou , Bernard; Cluzel , François

    2016-01-01

    International audience; In this paper, the importance of problem setting in front end of innovation to radically innovate is emphasized prior to the use of the BMC. After discussing the context of the Business Model Canvas usage, the failure reasons of a premature use (in early design stages) of the BMC tool is discussed through some real examples of innovative startups in Paris area. This paper ends with the proposition of three main rules to follow when one wants to use the Business Model C...

  10. Model organoids provide new research opportunities for ductal pancreatic cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boj, Sylvia F; Hwang, Chang-Il; Baker, Lindsey A; Engle, Dannielle D; Tuveson, David A; Clevers, Hans

    We recently established organoid models from normal and neoplastic murine and human pancreas tissues. These organoids exhibit ductal- and disease stage-specific characteristics and, after orthotopic transplantation, recapitulate the full spectrum of tumor progression. Pancreatic organoid technology

  11. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  12. Provide a model to improve the performance of intrusion detection systems in the cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Foroogh Sedighi

    2016-01-01

    High availability of tools and service providers in cloud computing and the fact that cloud computing services are provided by internet and deal with public, have caused important challenges for new computing model. Cloud computing faces problems and challenges such as user privacy, data security, data ownership, availability of services, and recovery after breaking down, performance, scalability, programmability. So far, many different methods are presented for detection of intrusion in clou...

  13. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...... between horizontal sliding and rocking is discussed....

  14. Centralised gaming models: providing optimal gambling behaviour controls

    OpenAIRE

    Griffiths, MD; Wood, RTA

    2009-01-01

    The expansion in the gaming industry and its widening attraction points to the need for ever more verifiable means of controlling problem gambling. Various strategies have been built into casino venue operations to address this, but recently, following a new focus on social responsibility, a group of experts considered the possibilities of a centralised gaming model as a more effective control mechanism for dealing with gambling behaviours.

  15. A Flexible Collaborative Innovation Model for SOA Services Providers

    OpenAIRE

    Santanna-Filho , João ,; Rabelo , Ricardo ,; Pereira-Klen , Alexandra ,

    2015-01-01

    Part 5: Innovation Networks; International audience; Software sector plays a very relevant role in current world economy. One of its characteristics is that they are mostly composed of SMEs. SMEs have been pushed to invest in innovation to keep competitive. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is a recent and powerful ICT paradigm for more sustainable business models. A SOA product has many differences when compared to manufacturing sector. Besides that, SOA projects are however very complex, ...

  16. The importance of variables and parameters in radiolytic chemical kinetics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepho, M.G.; Turner, P.J.; Reimus, P.W.

    1989-01-01

    Many of the pertinent radiochemical reactions are not completely understood, and most of the associated rate constants are poorly characterized. To help identify the important radiochemical reactions, rate constants, species, and environmental conditions, an importance theory code, SWATS (Sensitivitiy With Adjoint Theory-Sparse version)-LOOPCHEM, has been developed for the radiolytic chemical kinetics model in the radiolysis code LOOPCHEM. The LOOPCHEM code calculates the concentrations of various species in a radiolytic field over time. The SWATS-LOOPCHEM code efficiently calculates: the importance (relative to a defined response of interest) of each species concentration over time, the sensitivity of each parameter of interest, and the importance of each equation in the radiolysis model. The calculated results will be used to guide future experimental and modeling work for determining the importance of radiolysis on waste package performance. A demonstration (the importance of selected concentrations and the sensitivities of selected parameters) of the SWATS-LOOPCHEM code is provided for illustrative purposes

  17. The dynamic information architecture system : a simulation framework to provide interoperability for process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hummel, J. R.; Christiansen, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    As modeling and simulation becomes a more important part of the day-to-day activities in industry and government, organizations are being faced with the vexing problem of how to integrate a growing suite of heterogeneous models both within their own organizations and between organizations. The Argonne National Laboratory, which is operated by the University of Chicago for the United States Department of Energy, has developed the Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) to address such problems. DIAS is an object-oriented, subject domain independent framework that is used to integrate legacy or custom-built models and applications. In this paper we will give an overview of the features of DIAS and give examples of how it has been used to integrate models in a number of applications. We shall also describe some of the key supporting DIAS tools that provide seamless interoperability between models and applications

  18. Wind farms providing secondary frequency regulation: evaluating the performance of model-based receding horizon control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Shapiro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is an extended version of our paper presented at the 2016 TORQUE conference (Shapiro et al., 2016. We investigate the use of wind farms to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid using a model-based receding horizon control framework. In order to enable real-time implementation, the control actions are computed based on a time-varying one-dimensional wake model. This model describes wake advection and wake interactions, both of which play an important role in wind farm power production. In order to test the control strategy, it is implemented in a large-eddy simulation (LES model of an 84-turbine wind farm using the actuator disk turbine representation. Rotor-averaged velocity measurements at each turbine are used to provide feedback for error correction. The importance of including the dynamics of wake advection in the underlying wake model is tested by comparing the performance of this dynamic-model control approach to a comparable static-model control approach that relies on a modified Jensen model. We compare the performance of both control approaches using two types of regulation signals, RegA and RegD, which are used by PJM, an independent system operator in the eastern United States. The poor performance of the static-model control relative to the dynamic-model control demonstrates that modeling the dynamics of wake advection is key to providing the proposed type of model-based coordinated control of large wind farms. We further explore the performance of the dynamic-model control via composite performance scores used by PJM to qualify plants for regulation services or markets. Our results demonstrate that the dynamic-model-controlled wind farm consistently performs well, passing the qualification threshold for all fast-acting RegD signals. For the RegA signal, which changes over slower timescales, the dynamic-model control leads to average performance that surpasses the qualification threshold, but further

  19. Medical students' perceptions regarding the importance of nutritional knowledge and their confidence in providing competent nutrition practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlstein, R; McCoombe, S; Shaw, C; Nowson, C

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the perceived importance, knowledge and confidence in nutritional management in a sample of Australian medical students undertaking a 4-year postgraduate medical degree. In 2015, students in years 1-4 were anonymously surveyed to assess students' perceived importance of nutrition, and knowledge and confidence in nutritional management. A total of 131 first and second year (preclinical/yr 1-2) medical students (46% response rate) and 66 third and fourth year (clinical/yr 3-4) students (24% response rate) completed the questionnaire. Most preclinical students agreed that medical graduates should understand nutritional issues in managing cardiovascular disease (99%), type 2 diabetes (93%), coeliac disease (95%), and renal impairment (97%). However, students were limited in their confidence to demonstrate this knowledge (range of confidence: 26%-41%) for individual medical conditions. This improved for students in the clinical context of years 3 and 4, although it was still not optimal (range 26%-81%). Few year 3 and 4 students reported confidence in knowledge related to medicolegal issues, respiratory disease, nutritional guidelines and nutrition assessment (all 80%) reported confidence in the dietary management of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and coeliac disease and >60% indicated they would refer onto nutrition professionals. This cohort of postgraduate medical students recognize the importance of nutrition in disease. The number of students reporting increased confidence in nutritional management of a few select diseases where dietary management is one of the cornerstones of treatment (e.g. type 2 diabetes) rises throughout the course. However, students reported lower levels of knowledge in diseases where diet is secondary to other treatments and preventative strategies (e.g. respiratory disease). Filling the gap by integrating the nutritional management into the range of common chronic diseases during training

  20. Anti-Smoking Communication to Preadolescents with and without a Cancer Diagnosis: Parents and Healthcare Providers as Important Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Throckmorton-Belzer, Leslee; Tyc, Vida L; Robinson, Leslie A; Klosky, James L; Lensing, Shelly; Booth, Andrea K

    2009-10-01

    A cancer diagnosis does not prevent smoking among pediatric oncology patients, and anti-smoking communications among parents and health care providers have been proposed as influencing smoking outcomes in this group. Anti-smoking communications were compared among 93 preadolescents with cancer and 402 controls. After adjusting for demographics and covariates, preadolescents with cancer were less likely than control participants to report receipt of anti-smoking messages from physicians and parents, and recalled more messages >/= 4 months post-diagnosis as compared to 1-3 months. Should anti-tobacco communications prove to influence smoking outcomes, parents and physicians may be uniquely positioned to provide smoking prevention interventions to these patients.

  1. Provider Initiated Testing and Counseling (PITC for HIV in resource-limited clinical settings: important questions unanswered

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Twyman

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Testing is the gateway to HIV care and support services, and efforts to broaden treatment must include a proactive and inclusive approach to testing. Provider Initiated Testing and Counseling (PITC for HIV utilizes the opportunity afforded by the clinical encounter for the care provider to make a clinical recommendation that the patient have a voluntary HIV test. It is hoped that by broadening testing by such strategies as PITC more patients may be identified and linked to treatment and support. However, there exist multiple challenges and questions regarding the provision of routine HIV testing and counseling in clinical facilities. In order to support further PITC efforts and scale up of current testing programs, a research agenda that addresses the ethical, social and operational components of PITC programming in health facilities, is critically needed to further guide its expansion.

  2. Anti-Smoking Communication to Preadolescents with and without a Cancer Diagnosis: Parents and Healthcare Providers as Important Communicators

    OpenAIRE

    Throckmorton-Belzer, Leslee; Tyc, Vida L.; Robinson, Leslie A.; Klosky, James L.; Lensing, Shelly; Booth, Andrea K.

    2009-01-01

    A cancer diagnosis does not prevent smoking among pediatric oncology patients, and anti-smoking communications among parents and health care providers have been proposed as influencing smoking outcomes in this group. Anti-smoking communications were compared among 93 preadolescents with cancer and 402 controls. After adjusting for demographics and covariates, preadolescents with cancer were less likely than control participants to report receipt of anti-smoking messages from physicians and pa...

  3. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  4. The Importance of Classification to Business Model Research

    OpenAIRE

    Susan Lambert

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To bring to the fore the scientific significance of classification and its role in business model theory building. To propose a method by which existing classifications of business models can be analyzed and new ones developed. Design/Methodology/Approach: A review of the scholarly literature relevant to classifications of business models is presented along with a brief overview of classification theory applicable to business model research. Existing business model classification...

  5. The importance of proper feedback modeling in HWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saphier, D; Gorelik, Z; Shapira, M [Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Yavne (Israel). Soreq Nuclear Research Center

    1996-12-01

    The DSNP simulation language was applied to study the effect of different modeling approximations of feedback phenomena in nuclear power plants. The different methods to model the feedback effects are presented and discussed. It is shown that HWR`s are most sensitive to the correct modeling since the usually have at least three feedback effects acting at different time scales, and to achieve correct kinetics a one dimensional representation is needed with correct modeling of the in core time delays. The simulation methodology of lumped parameters and one dimensional models using the DSNP simulation language is presented (authors).

  6. The importance of proper feedback modeling in HWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Gorelik, Z.; Shapira, M.

    1996-01-01

    The DSNP simulation language was applied to study the effect of different modeling approximations of feedback phenomena in nuclear power plants. The different methods to model the feedback effects are presented and discussed. It is shown that HWR's are most sensitive to the correct modeling since the usually have at least three feedback effects acting at different time scales, and to achieve correct kinetics a one dimensional representation is needed with correct modeling of the in core time delays. The simulation methodology of lumped parameters and one dimensional models using the DSNP simulation language is presented (authors)

  7. Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

  8. Relative importance of secondary settling tank models in WWTP simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Sin, Gürkan

    2012-01-01

    Results obtained in a study using the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1) show that a one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) model structure and its parameters are among the most significant sources of uncertainty in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) simulations [Ramin et al., 2011......]. The sensitivity results consistently indicate that the prediction of sludge production is most sensitive to the variation of the settling parameters. In the present study, we use the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM2), a plant-wide benchmark, that combines the Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1...

  9. Recent advances in importance sampling for statistical model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the following work we present an overview of recent advances in rare event simulation for model checking made at the University of Twente. The overview is divided into the several model classes for which we propose algorithms, namely multicomponent systems, Markov chains and stochastic Petri

  10. Comparing consumer-directed and agency models for providing supportive services at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, A E; Matthias, R; Franke, T M

    2000-04-01

    To examine the service experiences and outcomes of low-income Medicaid beneficiaries with disabilities under two different models for organizing home-based personal assistance services: agency-directed and consumer-directed. A survey of a random sample of 1,095 clients, age 18 and over, who receive services in California's In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) program funded primarily by Medicaid. Other data were obtained from the California Management and Payrolling System (CMIPS). The sample was stratified by service model (agency-directed or consumer-directed), client age (over or under age 65), and severity. Data were collected on client demographics, condition/functional status, and supportive service experience. Outcome measures were developed in three areas: safety, unmet need, and service satisfaction. Factor analysis was used to reduce multiple outcome measures to nine dimensions. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess the effect of service model on each outcome dimension, taking into account the client-provider relationship, client demographics, and case mix. Recipients of IHSS services as of mid-1996 were interviewed by telephone. The survey was conducted in late 1996 and early 1997. On various outcomes, recipients in the consumer-directed model report more positive outcomes than those in the agency model, or they report no difference. Statistically significant differences emerge on recipient safety, unmet needs, and service satisfaction. A family member present as a paid provider is also associated with more positive reported outcomes within the consumer-directed model, but model differences persist even when this is taken into account. Although both models have strengths and weaknesses, from a recipient perspective the consumer-directed model is associated with more positive outcomes. Although health professionals have expressed concerns about the capacity of consumer direction to assure quality, particularly with respect to safety, meeting unmet

  11. Importance-truncated shell model for multi-shell valence spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stumpf, Christina; Vobig, Klaus; Roth, Robert [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The valence-space shell model is one of the work horses in nuclear structure theory. In traditional applications, shell-model calculations are carried out using effective interactions constructed in a phenomenological framework for rather small valence spaces, typically spanned by one major shell. We improve on this traditional approach addressing two main aspects. First, we use new effective interactions derived in an ab initio approach and, thus, establish a connection to the underlying nuclear interaction providing access to single- and multi-shell valence spaces. Second, we extend the shell model to larger valence spaces by applying an importance-truncation scheme based on a perturbative importance measure. In this way, we reduce the model space to the relevant basis states for the description of a few target eigenstates and solve the eigenvalue problem in this physics-driven truncated model space. In particular multi-shell valence spaces are not tractable otherwise. We combine the importance-truncated shell model with refined extrapolation schemes to approximately recover the exact result. We present first results obtained in the importance-truncated shell model with the newly derived ab initio effective interactions for multi-shell valence spaces, e.g., the sdpf shell.

  12. The better model to predict and improve pediatric health care quality: performance or importance-performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Rebecca M; Bryant, Carol A; McDermott, Robert J; Ortinau, David

    2013-01-01

    The perpetual search for ways to improve pediatric health care quality has resulted in a multitude of assessments and strategies; however, there is little research evidence as to their conditions for maximum effectiveness. A major reason for the lack of evaluation research and successful quality improvement initiatives is the methodological challenge of measuring quality from the parent perspective. Comparison of performance-only and importance-performance models was done to determine the better predictor of pediatric health care quality and more successful method for improving the quality of care provided to children. Fourteen pediatric health care centers serving approximately 250,000 patients in 70,000 households in three West Central Florida counties were studied. A cross-sectional design was used to determine the importance and performance of 50 pediatric health care attributes and four global assessments of pediatric health care quality. Exploratory factor analysis revealed five dimensions of care (physician care, access, customer service, timeliness of services, and health care facility). Hierarchical multiple regression compared the performance-only and the importance-performance models. In-depth interviews, participant observations, and a direct cognitive structural analysis identified 50 health care attributes included in a mailed survey to parents(n = 1,030). The tailored design method guided survey development and data collection. The importance-performance multiplicative additive model was a better predictor of pediatric health care quality. Attribute importance moderates performance and quality, making the importance-performance model superior for measuring and providing a deeper understanding of pediatric health care quality and a better method for improving the quality of care provided to children. Regardless of attribute performance, if the level of attribute importance is not taken into consideration, health care organizations may spend valuable

  13. Modeling the relative importance of nutrient and carbon loads ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences bottom water hypoxia in the summer. In order to gain a more fundamental understanding of the controlling factors leading to hypoxia, the Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM) was applied to this area to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the water as a function of various nutrient loadings. The model is a numerical, biogeochemical, three-dimensional ecological model that receives its physical transport data from the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM-LCS). GoMDOM was calibrated to a large set of nutrient, phytoplankton, dissolved oxygen, sediment nutrient flux, sediment oxygen demand (SOD), primary production, and respiration data collected in 2006 and corroborated with field data collected in 2003. The primary objective was to use the model to estimate a nutrient load reduction of both nitrogen and phosphorus necessary to reduce the size of the hypoxic area to 5,000 km2, a goal established in the 2008 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Action Plan prepared by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force. Using the year 2006 as a test case, the model results suggest that the nitrogen and phosphorus load reduction from the Atchafalaya and Mississippi River basins would need to be reduced by 64% to achieve the target hypoxia area. The Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico has a history of subsurface hypoxia in the summer.

  14. Wind farms providing secondary frequency regulation: Evaluating the performance of model-based receding horizon control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, Carl R.; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice F.; Meyers, Johan

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the use of wind farms to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid. Our approach uses model-based receding horizon control of a wind farm that is tested using a large eddy simulation (LES) framework. In order to enable real-time implementation, the control actions are computed based on a time-varying one-dimensional wake model. This model describes wake advection and interactions, both of which play an important role in wind farm power production. This controller is implemented in an LES model of an 84-turbine wind farm represented by actuator disk turbine models. Differences between the velocities at each turbine predicted by the wake model and measured in LES are used for closed-loop feedback. The controller is tested on two types of regulation signals, “RegA” and “RegD”, obtained from PJM, an independent system operator in the eastern United States. Composite performance scores, which are used by PJM to qualify plants for regulation, are used to evaluate the performance of the controlled wind farm. Our results demonstrate that the controlled wind farm consistently performs well, passing the qualification threshold for all fastacting RegD signals. For the RegA signal, which changes over slower time scales, the controlled wind farm's average performance surpasses the threshold, but further work is needed to enable the controlled system to achieve qualifying performance all of the time. (paper)

  15. The importance of time-stepping errors in ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P. D.

    2011-12-01

    Many ocean models use leapfrog time stepping. The Robert-Asselin (RA) filter is usually applied after each leapfrog step, to control the computational mode. However, it will be shown in this presentation that the RA filter generates very large amounts of numerical diapycnal mixing. In some ocean models, the numerical diapycnal mixing from the RA filter is as large as the physical diapycnal mixing. This lowers our confidence in the fidelity of the simulations. In addition to the above problem, the RA filter also damps the physical solution and degrades the numerical accuracy. These two concomitant problems occur because the RA filter does not conserve the mean state, averaged over the three time slices on which it operates. The presenter has recently proposed a simple modification to the RA filter, which does conserve the three-time-level mean state. The modified filter has become known as the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter. When used in conjunction with the leapfrog scheme, the RAW filter eliminates the numerical damping of the physical solution and increases the amplitude accuracy by two orders, yielding third-order accuracy. The phase accuracy is unaffected and remains second-order. The RAW filter can easily be incorporated into existing models of the ocean, typically via the insertion of just a single line of code. Better simulations are obtained, at almost no additional computational expense. Results will be shown from recent implementations of the RAW filter in various ocean models. For example, in the UK Met Office Hadley Centre ocean model, sea-surface temperature and sea-ice biases in the North Atlantic Ocean are found to be reduced. These improvements are encouraging for the use of the RAW filter in other ocean models.

  16. Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

  17. Social Importance Dynamics: A Model for Culturally-Adaptive Agents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mascarenhas, S.; Prada, R.; Paiva, A.; Hofstede, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    The unwritten rules of human cultures greatly affect social behaviour and as such should be considered in the development of socially intelligent agents. So far, there has been a large focus on modeling cultural aspects related to non-verbal behaviour such as gaze or body posture. However, culture

  18. Exploratory regression analysis: a tool for selecting models and determining predictor importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Michael T; Oswald, Frederick L

    2011-06-01

    Linear regression analysis is one of the most important tools in a researcher's toolbox for creating and testing predictive models. Although linear regression analysis indicates how strongly a set of predictor variables, taken together, will predict a relevant criterion (i.e., the multiple R), the analysis cannot indicate which predictors are the most important. Although there is no definitive or unambiguous method for establishing predictor variable importance, there are several accepted methods. This article reviews those methods for establishing predictor importance and provides a program (in Excel) for implementing them (available for direct download at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2480715/ERA.xlsm?dl=1) . The program investigates all 2(p) - 1 submodels and produces several indices of predictor importance. This exploratory approach to linear regression, similar to other exploratory data analysis techniques, has the potential to yield both theoretical and practical benefits.

  19. Early Prostate Cancer: Hedonic Prices Model of Provider-Patient Interactions and Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jani, Ashesh B.; Hellman, Samuel

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the relative influence of treatment features and treatment availabilities on final treatment decisions in early prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We describe and apply a model, based on hedonic prices, to understand provider-patient interactions in prostate cancer. This model included four treatments (observation, external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, and prostatectomy) and five treatment features (one efficacy and four treatment complication features). We performed a literature search to estimate (1) the intersections of the 'bid' functions and 'offer' functions with the price function along different treatment feature axes, and (2) the treatments actually rendered in different patient subgroups based on age. We performed regressions to determine the relative weight of each feature in the overall interaction and the relative availability of each treatment modality to explain differences between observed vs. predicted use of different modalities in different patient subpopulations. Results: Treatment efficacy and potency preservation are the major factors influencing decisions for young patients, whereas preservation of urinary and rectal function is much more important for very elderly patients. Referral patterns seem to be responsible for most of the deviations of observed use of different treatments from those predicted by idealized provider-patient interactions. Specifically, prostatectomy is used far more commonly in young patients and radiotherapy and observation used far more commonly in elderly patients than predicted by a uniform referral pattern. Conclusions: The hedonic prices approach facilitated identifying the relative importance of treatment features and quantification of the impact of the prevailing referral pattern on prostate cancer treatment decisions

  20. Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Campolongo, Francesca; Cariboni, Jessica

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new method for screening inputs in mathematical or computational models with large numbers of inputs. The method proposed here represents an improvement over the best available practice for this setting when dealing with models having strong interaction effects. When the sample size is sufficiently high the same design can also be used to obtain accurate quantitative estimates of the variance-based sensitivity measures: the same simulations can be used to obtain estimates of the variance-based measures according to the Sobol' and the Jansen formulas. Results demonstrate that Sobol' is more efficient for the computation of the first-order indices, while Jansen performs better for the computation of the total indices.

  1. Screening important inputs in models with strong interaction properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, Andrea [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy)], E-mail: francesca.campolongo@jrc.it; Cariboni, Jessica [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21020 Ispra, Varese (Italy)

    2009-07-15

    We introduce a new method for screening inputs in mathematical or computational models with large numbers of inputs. The method proposed here represents an improvement over the best available practice for this setting when dealing with models having strong interaction effects. When the sample size is sufficiently high the same design can also be used to obtain accurate quantitative estimates of the variance-based sensitivity measures: the same simulations can be used to obtain estimates of the variance-based measures according to the Sobol' and the Jansen formulas. Results demonstrate that Sobol' is more efficient for the computation of the first-order indices, while Jansen performs better for the computation of the total indices.

  2. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  3. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  4. Probing the Importance of Charge Flux in Force Field Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedghamiz, Elaheh; Nagy, Balazs; Jensen, Frank

    2017-08-08

    We analyze the conformational dependence of atomic charges and molecular dipole moments for a selection of ∼900 conformations of peptide models of the 20 neutral amino acids. Based on a set of reference density functional theory calculations, we partition the changes into effects due to changes in bond distances, bond angles, and torsional angles and into geometry and charge flux contributions. This allows an assessment of the limitations of fixed charge force fields and indications for how to design improved force fields. The torsional degrees of freedom are the main contribution to conformational changes of atomic charges and molecular dipole moments, but indirect effects due to change in bond distances and angles account for ∼25% of the variation. Charge flux effects dominate for changes in bond distances and are also the main component of the variation in bond angles, while they are ∼25% compared to the geometry variations for torsional degrees of freedom. The geometry and charge flux contributions to some extent produce compensating effects.

  5. Uncertainty importance measure for models with correlated normal variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Wenrui; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Pengfei

    2013-01-01

    In order to explore the contributions by correlated input variables to the variance of the model output, the contribution decomposition of the correlated input variables based on Mara's definition is investigated in detail. By taking the quadratic polynomial output without cross term as an illustration, the solution of the contribution decomposition is derived analytically using the statistical inference theory. After the correction of the analytical solution is validated by the numerical examples, they are employed to two engineering examples to show their wide application. The derived analytical solutions can directly be used to recognize the contributions by the correlated input variables in case of the quadratic or linear polynomial output without cross term, and the analytical inference method can be extended to the case of higher order polynomial output. Additionally, the origins of the interaction contribution of the correlated inputs are analyzed, and the comparisons of the existing contribution indices are completed, on which the engineer can select the suitable indices to know the necessary information. At last, the degeneration of the correlated inputs to the uncorrelated ones and some computational issues are discussed in concept

  6. Particle size - An important factor in environmental consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; MacFarlane, D.

    1991-01-01

    Most available environmental transport and dosimetry codes for radiological consequence analysis are designed primarily for estimating dose and health consequences to specific off-site individuals as well as the population as a whole from nuclear facilities operating under either normal or accident conditions. Models developed for these types of analyses are generally based on assumptions that the receptors are at great distances (several kilometers), and the releases are prolonged and filtered. This allows the use of simplified approaches such as averaged meteorological conditions and the use of a single (small) particle size for atmospheric transport and dosimetry analysis. Source depletion from particle settling, settle-out, and deposition is often ignored. This paper estimates the effects of large particles on the resulting dose consequences from an atmospheric release. The computer program AI-RISK has been developed to perform multiparticle-sized atmospheric transport, dose, and pathway analyses for estimating potential human health consequences from the accidental release of radioactive materials. The program was originally developed to facilitate comprehensive analyses of health consequences, ground contamination, and cleanup associated with possible energetic chemical reactions in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) tanks at a US Department of Energy site

  7. The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

    2017-04-01

    One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

  8. Practice and Perceived Importance of Advance Care Planning and Difficulties in Providing Palliative Care in Geriatric Health Service Facilities in Japan: A Nationwide Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoya, Shoji; Kizawa, Yoshiyuki; Maeno, Takami

    2018-03-01

    The provision of end-of-life (EOL) care by geriatric health service facilities (GHSFs) in Japan is increasing. Advance care planning (ACP) is one of the most important issues to provide quality EOL care. This study aimed to clarify the practice and perceived importance of ACP and the difficulties in providing palliative care in GHSFs. A self-report questionnaire was mailed to head nurses at 3437 GHSFs nationwide. We asked participants about their practices regarding ACP, their recognition of its importance, and their difficulties in providing palliative care. We also analyzed the relationship between these factors and EOL care education. Among 844 respondents (24.5% response rate), approximately 69% to 81% of head nurses confirmed that GHSF residents and their families understood disease conditions and goals of care. There was a large discrepancy between the actual practice of ACP components and the recognition of their importance (eg, asking residents about existing advance directive [AD; 27.5% practiced it, while 79.6% considered it important]; recommending completion of an AD [18.1% vs 68.4%], and asking for designation of a health-care proxy [30.4% vs 76.8%]). The EOL care education was provided at 517 facilities (61.3%). Head nurses working at EOL care education-providing GHSFs practiced ACP significantly more frequently and had significantly fewer difficulties in providing palliative care. A large discrepancy was found between GHSF nurses' practice of ACP and their recognition of its importance. Providing EOL care education in GHSFs may increase ACP practices and enhance respect for resident's preferences concerning EOL care.

  9. Assessment of the Stakeholders’ Importance Using AHP Method – Modeling and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danka Knezević

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Attention to stakeholders, which means that companies bear responsibility for the implications of their actions, is emerging as a critical strategic issue. Hence, meeting legitimate stakeholders’ requests would enhance the reputation of a company and increase its competitiveness on product markets. That is why an accurate identification of stakeholders and assessment of their importance is so significant for the companies. Through an integration of the earlier models of excellence, models for identification and classification of stakeholders, models for assessing the quality of a company and the AHP method, widely applicable in various fields, a new model for assessment of stakeholders’ significance is proposed in this paper. The model also provides an assessment of a company based on the degree of the importance and satisfaction of stakeholders. The results of this model could be useful for companies and their management when it comes to defining a proper business strategy, monitoring the system changes over time, creating a basis for comparison with other similar systems or with itself. A practical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.

  10. Importance of fishing as a segmentation variable in the application of a social worlds model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigliotti, Larry M.; Chase, Loren

    2017-01-01

    Market segmentation is useful to understanding and classifying the diverse range of outdoor recreation experiences sought by different recreationists. Although many different segmentation methodologies exist, many are complex and difficult to measure accurately during in-person intercepts, such as that of creel surveys. To address that gap in the literature, we propose a single-item measure of the importance of fishing as a surrogate to often overly- or needlesslycomplex segmentation techniques. The importance of fishing item is a measure of the value anglers place on the activity or a coarse quantification of how central the activity is to the respondent’s lifestyle (scale: 0 = not important, 1 = slightly, 2 = moderately, 3 = very, and 4 = fishing is my most important recreational activity). We suggest the importance scale may be a proxy measurement for segmenting anglers using the social worlds model as a theoretical framework. Vaske (1980) suggested that commitment to recreational activities may be best understood in relation to social group participation and the social worlds model provides a rich theoretical framework for understanding social group segments. Unruh (1983) identified four types of actor involvement in social worlds: strangers, tourists, regulars, and insiders, differentiated by four characteristics (orientation, experiences, relationships, and commitment). We evaluated the importance of fishing as a segmentation variable using data collected by a mixed-mode survey of South Dakota anglers fishing in 2010. We contend that this straightforward measurement may be useful for segmenting outdoor recreation activities when more complicated segmentation schemes are not suitable. Further, this index, when coupled with the social worlds model, provides a valuable framework for understanding the segments and making management decisions.

  11. Estimation of minimum sample size for identification of the most important features: a case study providing a qualitative B2B sales data set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Bohanec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An important task in machine learning is to reduce data set dimensionality, which in turn contributes to reducing computational load and data collection costs, while improving human understanding and interpretation of models. We introduce an operational guideline for determining the minimum number of instances sufficient to identify correct ranks of features with the highest impact. We conduct tests based on qualitative B2B sales forecasting data. The results show that a relatively small instance subset is sufficient for identifying the most important features when rank is not important.

  12. Risks, Benefits, and Importance of Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Data in Healthcare Settings: A Multi-Method Analysis of Patient and Provider Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maragh-Bass, Allysha C; Torain, Maya; Adler, Rachel; Schneider, Eric; Ranjit, Anju; Kodadek, Lisa M; Shields, Ryan; German, Danielle; Snyder, Claire; Peterson, Susan; Schuur, Jeremiah; Lau, Brandyn; Haider, Adil H

    2017-04-01

    Research suggests that LGBT populations experience barriers to healthcare. Organizations such as the Institute of Medicine recommend routine documentation of sexual orientation (SO) and gender identity (GI) in healthcare, to reduce LGBT disparities. We explore patient views regarding the importance of SO/GI collection, and patient and provider views on risks and benefits of routine SO/GI collection in various settings. We surveyed LGBT/non-LGBT patients and providers on their views on SO/GI collection. Weighted data were analyzed with descriptive statistics; content analysis was conducted with open-ended responses. One-half of the 1516 patients and 60% of 429 providers were female; 64% of patients and 71% of providers were White. Eighty percent of providers felt that collecting SO data would offend patients, whereas only 11% of patients reported that they would be offended. Patients rated it as more important for primary care providers to know the SO of all patients compared with emergency department (ED) providers knowing the SO of all patients (41.3% vs. 31.6%; P discrimination risk most frequently (49.7%; N = 781), whereas provider comments cited patient discomfort/offense most frequently (54.5%; N = 433). Patients see the importance of SO/GI more in primary care than ED settings. However, many LGBT patients seek ED care due to factors including uninsurance; therefore, the ED may represent an initial point of contact for SO/GI collection. Therefore, patient-centered approaches to collecting SO/GI are needed. Patients and providers differed in perceived risks and benefits to routine SO/GI collection. Provider training in LGBT health may address patients' bias/discrimination concerns, and ultimately reduce LGBT health disparities.

  13. Sworn testimony of the model evidence: Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-07-01

    What is the "best" model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K candidate models, Mk; k=>(1,…,K>), and help identify which model is most supported by the observed data, Y>˜=>(y˜1,…,y˜n>). Here, we introduce a new and robust estimator of the model evidence, p>(Y>˜|Mk>), which acts as normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes' theorem and provides a single quantitative measure of relative support for each hypothesis that integrates model accuracy, uncertainty, and complexity. However, p>(Y>˜|Mk>) is analytically intractable for most practical modeling problems. Our method, coined GAussian Mixture importancE (GAME) sampling, uses bridge sampling of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior model parameter distribution derived from MCMC simulation. We benchmark the accuracy and reliability of GAME sampling by application to a diverse set of multivariate target distributions (up to 100 dimensions) with known values of p>(Y>˜|Mk>) and to hypothesis testing using numerical modeling of the rainfall-runoff transformation of the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi, USA. These case studies demonstrate that GAME sampling provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence at a relatively small computational cost outperforming commonly used estimators. The GAME sampler is implemented in the MATLAB package of DREAM and simplifies considerably scientific inquiry through hypothesis testing and model selection.

  14. The importance of distance to resources in the spatial modelling of bat foraging habitat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Rainho

    Full Text Available Many bats are threatened by habitat loss, but opportunities to manage their habitats are now increasing. Success of management depends greatly on the capacity to determine where and how interventions should take place, so models predicting how animals use landscapes are important to plan them. Bats are quite distinctive in the way they use space for foraging because (i most are colonial central-place foragers and (ii exploit scattered and distant resources, although this increases flying costs. To evaluate how important distances to resources are in modelling foraging bat habitat suitability, we radio-tracked two cave-dwelling species of conservation concern (Rhinolophus mehelyi and Miniopterus schreibersii in a Mediterranean landscape. Habitat and distance variables were evaluated using logistic regression modelling. Distance variables greatly increased the performance of models, and distance to roost and to drinking water could alone explain 86 and 73% of the use of space by M. schreibersii and R. mehelyi, respectively. Land-cover and soil productivity also provided a significant contribution to the final models. Habitat suitability maps generated by models with and without distance variables differed substantially, confirming the shortcomings of maps generated without distance variables. Indeed, areas shown as highly suitable in maps generated without distance variables proved poorly suitable when distance variables were also considered. We concluded that distances to resources are determinant in the way bats forage across the landscape, and that using distance variables substantially improves the accuracy of suitability maps generated with spatially explicit models. Consequently, modelling with these variables is important to guide habitat management in bats and similarly mobile animals, particularly if they are central-place foragers or depend on spatially scarce resources.

  15. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  16. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  17. A Thematic Literature Review: The Importance of Providing Spiritual Care for End-of-Life Patients Who Have Experienced Transcendence Phenomena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadhurst, Kathleen; Harrington, Ann

    2016-11-01

    The purpose of this review was to investigate within the literature the link between transcendent phenomena and peaceful death. The objectives were firstly to acknowledge the importance of such experiences and secondly to provide supportive spiritual care to dying patients. Information surrounding the aforementioned concepts is underreported in the literature. The following 4 key themes emerged: spiritual comfort; peaceful, calm death; spiritual transformation; and unfinished business The review established the importance of transcendence phenomena being accepted as spiritual experiences by health care professionals. Nevertheless, health care professionals were found to struggle with providing spiritual care to patients who have experienced them. Such phenomena are not uncommon and frequently result in peaceful death. Additionally, transcendence experiences of dying patients often provide comfort to the bereaved, assisting them in the grieving process. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. The importance of modelling in European decisions concerning energy and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, D.

    2012-01-01

    Under pressure as much from the economic crisis as from a desire to improve governance, political decision makers seek to evaluate economic and social impacts of their choices. Quantification of trend projections and alternative scenarios - developed with the aid of economic and energy models - provide a base on which to make these choices. Attempts to put figures on and to clarify contrasting options provoke animated debates, both about the quantitative tools used (a scientific question) and on their use (a political question). This article aims to show the importance of the modellers in providing answers to these questions, by analysing the process of European policy decisions on energy and the environment over the period 1995-2005. (authors)

  19. A Novel Stackelberg-Bertrand Game Model for Pricing Content Provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Zhang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available With the popularity of smart devices such as smartphone, tablet, contents that traditionally be viewed on a personal computer, can also be viewed on these smart devices. The demand for contents thus is increasing year by year, which makes the content providers (CPs get great revenue from either users’ subscription or advertisement. On the other hand, Internet service providers (ISPs, who keep investing in the network technology or capacity capacity to support the huge traffic generated by contents, do not benefit directly from the content traffic. One choice for ISPs is to charge CPs to share the revenue from the huge content traffic. Then ISPs have enough incentives to invest in network infrastructure to improve quality of services (QoS, which eventually benefit CPs and users. This paper presents a novel economic model called Stackelberg-Bertrand game to capture the interaction and competitions among ISPs, CPs and users when ISPs charge CPs. A generic user demand function is assumed to capture the sensitivity of demand to prices of ISPs and CPs. The numerical results show that the price elasticity of ISP and CP plays an important part on the payoff of the ISP and CP.

  20. The anti-human trafficking collaboration model and serving victims: Providers' perspectives on the impact and experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hea-Won; Park, Taekyung; Quiring, Stephanie; Barrett, Diana

    2018-01-01

    A coalition model is often used to serve victims of human trafficking but little is known about whether the model is adequately meeting the needs of the victims. The purpose of this study was to examine anti-human trafficking collaboration model in terms of its impact and the collaborative experience, including challenges and lessons learned from the service providers' perspective. Mixed methods study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a citywide anti-trafficking coalition model from the providers' perspectives. Web-based survey was administered with service providers (n = 32) and focus groups were conducted with Core Group members (n = 10). Providers reported the coalition model has made important impacts in the community by increasing coordination among the key agencies, law enforcement, and service providers and improving quality of service provision. Providers identified the improved and expanded partnerships among coalition members as the key contributing factor to the success of the coalition model. Several key strategies were suggested to improve the coalition model: improved referral tracking, key partner and protocol development, and information sharing.

  1. Estimation of minimum sample size for identification of the most important features: a case study providing a qualitative B2B sales data set

    OpenAIRE

    Marko Bohanec; Mirjana Kljajić Borštnar; Marko Robnik-Šikonja

    2017-01-01

    An important task in machine learning is to reduce data set dimensionality, which in turn contributes to reducing computational load and data collection costs, while improving human understanding and interpretation of models. We introduce an operational guideline for determining the minimum number of instances sufficient to identify correct ranks of features with the highest impact. We conduct tests based on qualitative B2B sales forecasting data. The results show that a relatively small inst...

  2. A Distance Education Model for Training Substance Abuse Treatment Providers in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Donnie W.; Rawson, Richard R.; Rataemane, Solomon; Shafer, Michael S.; Obert, Jeanne; Bisesi, Lorrie; Tanamly, Susie

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a rationale for the use of a distance education approach in the clinical training of community substance abuse treatment providers. Developing and testing new approaches to the clinical training and supervision of providers is important in the substance abuse treatment field where new information is always available. A…

  3. New Provider Models for Sweden and Spain: Public, Private or Non-profit? Comment on "Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeurissen, Patrick P T; Maarse, Hans

    2016-06-29

    Sweden and Spain experiment with different provider models to reform healthcare provision. Both models have in common that they extend the role of the for-profit sector in healthcare. As the analysis of Saltman and Duran demonstrates, privatisation is an ambiguous and contested strategy that is used for quite different purposes. In our comment, we emphasize that their analysis leaves questions open on the consequences of privatisation for the performance of healthcare and the role of the public sector in healthcare provision. Furthermore, we briefly address the absence of the option of healthcare provision by not-for-profit providers in the privatisation strategy of Sweden and Spain. © 2016 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  4. Molecular modeling of human neutral sphingomyelinase provides insight into its molecular interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinesh; Goswami, Angshumala; Suresh, Panneer Selvam; Thirunavukkarasu, Chinnasamy; Weiergräber, Oliver H; Kumar, Muthuvel Suresh

    2011-01-01

    The neutral sphingomyelinase (N-SMase) is considered a major candidate for mediating the stress-induced production of ceramide, and it plays an important role in cell-cycle arrest, apoptosis, inflammation, and eukaryotic stress responses. Recent studies have identified a small region at the very N-terminus of the 55 kDa tumour necrosis factor receptor (TNF-R55), designated the neutral sphingomyelinase activating domain (NSD) that is responsible for the TNF-induced activation of N-SMase. There is no direct association between TNF-R55 NSD and N-SMase; instead, a protein named factor associated with N-SMase activation (FAN) has been reported to couple the TNF-R55 NSD to N-SMase. Since the three-dimensional fold of N-SMase is still unknown, we have modeled the structure using the protein fold recognition and threading method. Moreover, we propose models for the TNF-R55 NSD as well as the FAN protein in order to study the structural basis of N-SMase activation and regulation. Protein-protein interaction studies suggest that FAN is crucially involved in mediating TNF-induced activation of the N-SMase pathway, which in turn regulates mitogenic and proinflammatory responses. Inhibition of N-SMase may lead to reduction of ceramide levels and hence may provide a novel therapeutic strategy for inflammation and autoimmune diseases. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed to check the stability of the predicted model and protein-protein complex; indeed, stable RMS deviations were obtained throughout the simulation. Furthermore, in silico docking of low molecular mass ligands into the active site of N-SMase suggests that His135, Glu48, Asp177, and Asn179 residues play crucial roles in this interaction. Based on our results, these ligands are proposed to be potent and selective N-SMase inhibitors, which may ultimately prove useful as lead compounds for drug development.

  5. The Importance of Precise Digital Elevation Models (DEM) in Modelling Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, Gokben; Akyurek, Zuhal

    2016-04-01

    Digital elevation Models (DEM) are important inputs for topography for the accurate modelling of floodplain hydrodynamics. Floodplains have a key role as natural retarding pools which attenuate flood waves and suppress flood peaks. GPS, LIDAR and bathymetric surveys are well known surveying methods to acquire topographic data. It is not only time consuming and expensive to obtain topographic data through surveying but also sometimes impossible for remote areas. In this study it is aimed to present the importance of accurate modelling of topography for flood modelling. The flood modelling for Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. One of the DEM is obtained from the point observations retrieved from 1/5000 scaled orthophotos and 1/1000 scaled point elevation data from field surveys at x-sections. The river banks are corrected by using the orthophotos and elevation values. This DEM is named as scaled DEM. The other DEM is obtained from bathymetric surveys. 296 538 number of points and the left/right bank slopes were used to construct the DEM having 1 m spatial resolution and this DEM is named as base DEM. Two DEMs were compared by using 27 x-sections. The maximum difference at thalweg of the river bed is 2m and the minimum difference is 20 cm between two DEMs. The channel conveyance capacity in base DEM is larger than the one in scaled DEM and floodplain is modelled in detail in base DEM. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. The model by using two DEMs were calibrated for a flood event (July 9, 2012). The roughness is considered as the calibration parameter. From comparison of input hydrograph at the upstream of the river and output hydrograph at the downstream of the river, the attenuation is obtained as 91% and 84% for the base DEM and scaled DEM, respectively. The time lag in hydrographs does not show any difference for two DEMs and it is obtained as 3 hours. Maximum flood extents differ for the two DEMs

  6. Cameroon mid-level providers offer a promising public health dentistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achembong Leo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Oral health services are inadequate and unevenly distributed in many developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa. Rural areas in these countries and poorer sections of the population in urban areas often do not have access to oral health services mainly because of a significant shortage of dentists and the high costs of care. We reviewed Cameroon’s experience with deploying a mid-level cadre of oral health professionals and the feasibility of establishing a more formal and predictable role for these health workers. We anticipate that a task-shifting approach in the provision of dental care will significantly improve the uneven distribution of oral health services particularly in the rural areas of Cameroon, which is currently served by only 3% of the total number of dentists. Methods The setting of this study was the Cameroon Baptist Convention Health Board (BCHB, which has four dentists and 42 mid-level providers. De-identified data were collected manually from the registries of 10 Baptist Convention clinics located in six of Cameroon’s 10 regions and then entered into an Excel format before importing into STATA. A retrospective abstraction of all entries for patient visits starting October 2010, and going back in time until 1500 visits were extracted from each clinic. Results This study showed that mid-level providers in BCHB clinics are offering a full scope of dental work across the 10 clinics, with the exception of treatment for major facial injuries. Mid-level providers alone performed 93.5% of all extractions, 87.5% of all fillings, 96.5% of all root canals, 97.5% of all cleanings, and 98.1% of all dentures. The dentists also typically played a teaching role in training the mid-level providers. Conclusions The Ministry of Health in Cameroon has an opportunity to learn from the BCHB model to expand access to oral health care across the country. This study shows the benefits of using a simple, workable, low

  7. Effectiveness of Video Modeling Provided by Mothers in Teaching Play Skills to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besler, Fatma; Kurt, Onur

    2016-01-01

    Video modeling is an evidence-based practice that can be used to provide instruction to individuals with autism. Studies show that this instructional practice is effective in teaching many types of skills such as self-help skills, social skills, and academic skills. However, in previous studies, videos used in the video modeling process were…

  8. Modeling options to manage type 1 wild poliovirus imported into Israel in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalkowska, Dominika A; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Grotto, Itamar; Shulman, Lester M; Anis, Emilia; Wassilak, Steven G F; Pallansch, Mark A; Thompson, Kimberly M

    2015-06-01

    After 25 years without poliomyelitis cases caused by circulating wild poliovirus (WPV) in Israel, sewage sampling detected WPV type 1 (WPV1) in April 2013, despite high vaccination coverage with only inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) since 2005. We used a differential equation-based model to simulate the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and population immunity in Israel due to past exposure to WPV and use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in addition to IPV. We explored the influences of various immunization options to stop imported WPV1 circulation in Israel. We successfully modeled the potential for WPVs to circulate without detected cases in Israel. Maintaining a sequential IPV/OPV schedule instead of switching to an IPV-only schedule in 2005 would have kept population immunity high enough in Israel to prevent WPV1 circulation. The Israeli response to WPV1 detection prevented paralytic cases; a more rapid response might have interrupted transmission more quickly. IPV-based protection alone might not provide sufficient population immunity to prevent poliovirus transmission after an importation. As countries transition to IPV in immunization schedules, they may need to actively manage population immunity and consider continued use of OPV, to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses before globally coordinated cessation of OPV use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Video Modeling Training Effects on Types of Attention Delivered by Educational Care-Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, Traci A; Lambright, Nathan; Luiselli, James K

    2017-06-01

    We evaluated the effects of abbreviated (i.e., one-session) video modeling on delivery of student-preferred attention by educational care-providers. The video depicted a novel care-provider interacting with and delivering attention to the student. Within a concurrent multiple baseline design, video modeling increased delivery of the targeted attention for all participants as well as their delivery of another type of attention that was not trained although these effects were variable within and between care-providers. We discuss the clinical and training implications from these findings.

  10. Importance estimation in Monte Carlo modelling of neutron and photon transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mickael, M.W.

    1992-01-01

    The estimation of neutron and photon importance in a three-dimensional geometry is achieved using a coupled Monte Carlo and diffusion theory calculation. The parameters required for the solution of the multigroup adjoint diffusion equation are estimated from an analog Monte Carlo simulation of the system under investigation. The solution of the adjoint diffusion equation is then used as an estimate of the particle importance in the actual simulation. This approach provides an automated and efficient variance reduction method for Monte Carlo simulations. The technique has been successfully applied to Monte Carlo simulation of neutron and coupled neutron-photon transport in the nuclear well-logging field. The results show that the importance maps obtained in a few minutes of computer time using this technique are in good agreement with Monte Carlo generated importance maps that require prohibitive computing times. The application of this method to Monte Carlo modelling of the response of neutron porosity and pulsed neutron instruments has resulted in major reductions in computation time. (Author)

  11. Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

    2018-04-01

    The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

  12. Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice-versa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron

    Full Text Available Agent-based models (ABM are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not.Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks and analytic calculations (for a complete graph we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature.This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.

  13. Structural equation modelling of determinants of customer satisfaction of mobile network providers: Case of Kolkata, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shibashish Chakraborty

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Indian market of mobile network providers is growing rapidly. India is the second largest market of mobile network providers in the world and there is intense competition among existing players. In such a competitive market, customer satisfaction becomes a key issue. The objective of this paper is to develop a customer satisfaction model of mobile network providers in Kolkata. The results indicate that generic requirements (an aggregation of output quality and perceived value, flexibility, and price are the determinants of customer satisfaction. This study offers insights for mobile network providers to understand the determinants of customer satisfaction.

  14. Social models provide a norm of appropriate food intake for young women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenny R Vartanian

    Full Text Available It is often assumed that social models influence people's eating behavior by providing a norm of appropriate food intake, but this hypothesis has not been directly tested. In three experiments, female participants were exposed to a low-intake model, a high-intake model, or no model (control condition. Experiments 1 and 2 used a remote-confederate manipulation and were conducted in the context of a cookie taste test. Experiment 3 used a live confederate and was conducted in the context of a task during which participants were given incidental access to food. Participants also rated the extent to which their food intake was influenced by a variety of factors (e.g., hunger, taste, how much others ate. In all three experiments, participants in the low-intake conditions ate less than did participants in the high-intake conditions, and also reported a lower perceived norm of appropriate intake. Furthermore, perceived norms of appropriate intake mediated the effects of the social model on participants' food intake. Despite the observed effects of the social models, participants were much more likely to indicate that their food intake was influenced by taste and hunger than by the behavior of the social models. Thus, social models appear to influence food intake by providing a norm of appropriate eating behavior, but people may be unaware of the influence of a social model on their behavior.

  15. Value-added strategy models to provide quality services in senior health business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ya-Ting; Lin, Neng-Pai; Su, Shyi; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chang, Yao-Mao; Handa, Yujiro; Khan, Hafsah Arshed Ali; Elsa Hsu, Yi-Hsin

    2017-06-20

    The rapid population aging is now a global issue. The increase in the elderly population will impact the health care industry and health enterprises; various senior needs will promote the growth of the senior health industry. Most senior health studies are focused on the demand side and scarcely on supply. Our study selected quality enterprises focused on aging health and analyzed different strategies to provide excellent quality services to senior health enterprises. We selected 33 quality senior health enterprises in Taiwan and investigated their excellent quality services strategies by face-to-face semi-structured in-depth interviews with CEO and managers of each enterprise in 2013. A total of 33 senior health enterprises in Taiwan. Overall, 65 CEOs and managers of 33 enterprises were interviewed individually. None. Core values and vision, organization structure, quality services provided, strategies for quality services. This study's results indicated four type of value-added strategy models adopted by senior enterprises to offer quality services: (i) residential care and co-residence model, (ii) home care and living in place model, (iii) community e-business experience model and (iv) virtual and physical portable device model. The common part in these four strategy models is that the services provided are elderly centered. These models offer virtual and physical integrations, and also offer total solutions for the elderly and their caregivers. Through investigation of successful strategy models for providing quality services to seniors, we identified opportunities to develop innovative service models and successful characteristics, also policy implications were summarized. The observations from this study will serve as a primary evidenced base for enterprises developing their senior market and, also for promoting the value co-creation possibility through dialogue between customers and those that deliver service. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  16. The "P2P" Educational Model Providing Innovative Learning by Linking Technology, Business and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Paul Gordon

    2017-01-01

    This paper evaluates the effect and potential of a new educational learning model called Peer to Peer (P2P). The study was focused on Laurea, Hyvinkaa's Finland campus and its response to bridging the gap between traditional educational methods and working reality, where modern technology plays an important role. The study describes and evaluates…

  17. Deposition to forests in Europe: most important factors influencing dry deposition and models used for generalisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, Jan Willem; Draaijers, Geert

    2003-01-01

    The influence of forest characteristics on deposition can be modelled reasonably well; forest edge effects and dynamical processes are still uncertain. - Dry deposition of gases and particles to forests is influenced by factors influencing the turbulent transport, such as wind speed, tree height, canopy closure, LAI, etc. as well as by factors influencing surface condition, such as precipitation, relative humidity, global radiation, etc. In this paper, an overview of these factors is given and it is shown which are the most important determining temporal and spatial variation of dry deposition of sodium and sulphur. Furthermore, it is evaluated how well current deposition models are able to describe the temporal and spatial variation in dry deposition. It is concluded that the temporal variation is not modelled well enough, because of limited surface-wetness exchange parameterisations. The influence of forest characteristics are modelled reasonably well, provided enough data describing the forests and the spatial variation in concentration is available. For Europe these data are not available. The means to decrease the atmospheric deposition through forest management is discussed

  18. The models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on import, export, and foreign exchange reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Wibowo, Supriyadi; Rizky Aristina Suwardi, Vivi

    2017-12-01

    The severity of the financial crisis that occurred in Indonesia required an early warning system of financial crisis. The financial crisis in Indonesia can be detected based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of the research is to determine an appropriate model to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. Markov switching is an alternative framework for the approach often used in financial crisis detection. Combined volatility and Markov switching model with three states assumptions can be established if an AR and volatility models have been obtained. Imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves data from January 1990 to December 2016 have the heteroscedasticity effect so that an ARCH model is used as a volatility model. Research shows that SWARCH(3.1) model is an appropriate model for detecting financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

  20. Providing the meta-model of development of competency using the meta-ethnography approach: Part 2. Synthesis of the available competency development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Yazdani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: ConsideringBackground and Purpose: Considering the importance and necessity of competency-based education at a global level and with respect to globalization and the requirement of minimum competencies in medical fields, medical education communities and organizations worldwide have tried to determine the competencies, present frameworks and education models to respond to be sure of the ability of all graduates. In the literature, we observed numerous competency development models that refer to the same issues with different terminologies. It seems that evaluation and synthesis of all these models can finally result in designing a comprehensive meta-model for competency development.Methods: Meta-ethnography is a useful method for synthesis of qualitative research that is used to develop models that interpret the results in several studies. Considering that the aim of this study is to ultimately provide a competency development meta-model, in the previous section of the study, the literature review was conducted to achieve competency development models. Models obtained through the search were studied in details, and the key concepts of the models and overarching concepts were extracted in this section, models’ concepts were reciprocally translated and the available competency development models were synthesized.Results: A presentation of the competency development meta-model and providing a redefinition of the Dreyfus brothers model.Conclusions: Given the importance of competency-based education at a global level and the need to review curricula and competency-based curriculum design, it is required to provide competency development as well as meta-model to be the basis for curriculum development. As there are a variety of competency development models available, in this study, it was tried to develop the curriculum using them.Keywords: Meta-ethnography, Competency development, Meta-model, Qualitative synthesis

  1. Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

  2. Comparisons of aerosol optical depth provided by seviri satellite observations and CAMx air quality modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, A.; Riffler, M.; Ferreira, J.; Wunderle, S.; Borrego, C.; Tchepel, O.

    2015-04-01

    Satellite data provide high spatial coverage and characterization of atmospheric components for vertical column. Additionally, the use of air pollution modelling in combination with satellite data opens the challenging perspective to analyse the contribution of different pollution sources and transport processes. The main objective of this work is to study the AOD over Portugal using satellite observations in combination with air pollution modelling. For this purpose, satellite data provided by Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) on-board the geostationary Meteosat-9 satellite on AOD at 550 nm and modelling results from the Chemical Transport Model (CAMx - Comprehensive Air quality Model) were analysed. The study period was May 2011 and the aim was to analyse the spatial variations of AOD over Portugal. In this study, a multi-temporal technique to retrieve AOD over land from SEVIRI was used. The proposed method takes advantage of SEVIRI's high temporal resolution of 15 minutes and high spatial resolution. CAMx provides the size distribution of each aerosol constituent among a number of fixed size sections. For post processing, CAMx output species per size bin have been grouped into total particulate sulphate (PSO4), total primary and secondary organic aerosols (POA + SOA), total primary elemental carbon (PEC) and primary inert material per size bin (CRST1 to CRST_4) to be used in AOD quantification. The AOD was calculated by integration of aerosol extinction coefficient (Qext) on the vertical column. The results were analysed in terms of temporal and spatial variations. The analysis points out that the implemented methodology provides a good spatial agreement between modelling results and satellite observation for dust outbreak studied (10th -17th of May 2011). A correlation coefficient of r=0.79 was found between the two datasets. This work provides relevant background to start the integration of these two different types of the data in order

  3. Improving sexual health communication between older women and their providers: how the integrative model of behavioral prediction can help.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Anne K; Rostant, Ola S; Curran, Paul G

    2014-07-01

    Talking about sexual health can be a challenge for some older women. This project was initiated to identify key factors that improve communication between aging women and their primary care providers. A sample of women (aged 60+) completed an online survey regarding their intent to communicate with a provider about sexual health. Using the integrative model of behavioral prediction as a guide, the survey instrument captured data on attitudes, perceived norms, self-efficacy, and intent to communicate with a provider about sexual health. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Self-efficacy and perceived norms were the most important factors predicting intent to communicate for this sample of women. Intent did not vary with race, but mean scores of the predictors of intent varied for African American and White women. Results can guide practice and intervention with ethnically diverse older women who may be struggling to communicate about their sexual health concerns. © The Author(s) 2013.

  4. The importance of older family members in providing social resources and promoting cancer screening in families with a hereditary cancer syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashida, Sato; Hadley, Donald W; Goergen, Andrea F; Skapinsky, Kaley F; Devlin, Hillary C; Koehly, Laura M

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluates the role of older family members as providers of social resources within familial network systems affected by an inherited cancer susceptibility syndrome.  Respondents who previously participated in a study that involved genetic counseling and testing for Lynch syndrome and their family network members were invited to participate in a onetime telephone interview about family communication. A total of 206 respondents from 33 families identified 2,051 social relationships (dyads). Nineteen percent of the respondents and 25% of the network members were older (≥60 years). Younger respondents (≤59 years) were more likely to nominate older network members as providers of social resources than younger members: instrumental support (odds ratio [OR] = 1.68), emotional support (OR = 1.71), help in crisis situation (OR = 2.04), and dependability when needed (OR = 2.15). Compared with younger network members, older members were more likely to be listed as encouragers of colon cancer screening by both younger (OR = 3.40) and older respondents (OR = 1.90) independent of whether support exchange occurred in the relationship. Engaging older network members in health interventions to facilitate screening behaviors and emotional well-being of younger members within families affected by inherited conditions may be beneficial. Findings can be used to empower older individuals about their important social roles in enhancing the well-being of their family members and to inform younger individuals about their older relatives' resourcefulness to facilitate positive social interactions.

  5. The importance of information goods abstraction levels for information commerce process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnhoven, Alphonsus B.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    A process model, in the context of e-commerce, is an organized set of activities for the creation, (re-)production, trade and delivery of goods. Electronic commerce studies have created important process models for the trade of physical goods via Internet. These models are not easily suitable for

  6. MODEL OF PROVIDING WITH DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN AN ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Kuzkin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper presents research and instructional tools for assessment of providing with the development strategy for information technologies in an organization. Method. The corresponding assessment model is developed which takes into consideration IT-processes equilibrium according to selected efficiency factors of information technologies application. Basic results. The model peculiarity resides in applying neuro-fuzzy approximators where the conclusion is drawn upon fuzzy logic, and membership functions are adjusted through the use of neural networks. For the adequacy testing of the suggested model, due diligence result analysis has been carried out for the IT-strategy executed in the “Navigator” group of companies at the stage of implementation and support of new technologies and production methods. Data visualization with a circle diagram is applied for the comparative evaluation of the analysis results. The chosen model adequacy is proved by the agreement between predictive assessments for IT-strategy performance targets derived by means of the fuzzy cognitive model over 12 months planning horizon and the real values of these targets upon the expiry of the given planning term. Practical significance. The developed model application gives the possibility to solve the problem of sustainability assessment for the process of providing the required IT-strategy realization level based upon the fuzzy cognitive map analysis and to reveal IT-objectives changing tendencies for an organization over the stated planning interval.

  7. Simulation model for transcervical laryngeal injection providing real-time feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Tiffiny A; Kobler, James B; Loan, Gregory J; Burns, James A

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to develop and evaluate a model for teaching transcervical laryngeal injections. A 3-dimensional printer was used to create a laryngotracheal framework based on de-identified computed tomography images of a human larynx. The arytenoid cartilages and intrinsic laryngeal musculature were created in silicone from clay casts and thermoplastic molds. The thyroarytenoid (TA) muscle was created with electrically conductive silicone using metallic filaments embedded in silicone. Wires connected TA muscles to an electrical circuit incorporating a cell phone and speaker. A needle electrode completed the circuit when inserted in the TA during simulated injection, providing real-time feedback of successful needle placement by producing an audible sound. Face validation by the senior author confirmed appropriate tactile feedback and anatomical realism. Otolaryngologists pilot tested the model and completed presimulation and postsimulation questionnaires. The high-fidelity simulation model provided tactile and audio feedback during needle placement, simulating transcervical vocal fold injections. Otolaryngology residents demonstrated higher comfort levels with transcervical thyroarytenoid injection on postsimulation questionnaires. This is the first study to describe a simulator for developing transcervical vocal fold injection skills. The model provides real-time tactile and auditory feedback that aids in skill acquisition. Otolaryngologists reported increased confidence with transcervical injection after using the simulator. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Evolving provider payment models and patient access to innovative medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Genia; Mortimer, Richard; Sanzenbacher, Geoffrey

    2014-12-01

    Abstract Objective: To investigate the evolving use and expected impact of pay-for-performance (P4P) and risk-based provider reimbursement on patient access to innovative medical technology. Structured interviews with leading private payers representing over 110 million commercially-insured lives exploring current and planned use of P4P provider payment models, evidence requirements for technology assessment and new technology coverage, and the evolving relationship between the two topics. Respondents reported rapid increases in the use of P4P and risk-sharing programs, with roughly half of commercial lives affected 3 years ago, just under two-thirds today, and an expected three-quarters in 3 years. All reported well-established systems for evaluating new technology coverage. Five of nine reported becoming more selective in the past 3 years in approving new technologies; four anticipated that in the next 3 years there will be a higher evidence requirement for new technology access. Similarly, four expected it will become more difficult for clinically appropriate but costly technologies to gain coverage. All reported planning to rely more on these types of provider payment incentives to control costs, but didn't see them as a substitute for payer technology reviews and coverage limitations; they each have a role to play. Interviews limited to nine leading payers with models in place; self-reported data. Likely implications include a more uncertain payment environment for providers, and indirectly for innovative medical technology and future investment, greater reliance on quality and financial metrics, and increased evidence requirements for favorable coverage and utilization decisions. Increasing provider financial risk may challenge the traditional technology adoption paradigm, where payers assumed a 'gatekeeping' role and providers a countervailing patient advocacy role with regard to access to new technology. Increased provider financial risk may result in an

  9. The importance of spatial models for estimating the strength of density dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Skaug, Hans J.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    the California Coast. In this case, the nonspatial model estimates implausible oscillatory dynamics on an annual time scale, while the spatial model estimates strong autocorrelation and is supported by model selection tools. We conclude by discussing the importance of improved data archiving techniques, so...... that spatial models can be used to re-examine classic questions regarding the presence and strength of density dependence in wild populations Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-0739.1...

  10. Cutting Edge PBPK Models and Analyses: Providing the Basis for Future Modeling Efforts and Bridges to Emerging Toxicology Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane C. Caldwell

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK models are used for predictions of internal or target dose from environmental and pharmacologic chemical exposures. Their use in human risk assessment is dependent on the nature of databases (animal or human used to develop and test them, and includes extrapolations across species, experimental paradigms, and determination of variability of response within human populations. Integration of state-of-the science PBPK modeling with emerging computational toxicology models is critical for extrapolation between in vitro exposures, in vivo physiologic exposure, whole organism responses, and long-term health outcomes. This special issue contains papers that can provide the basis for future modeling efforts and provide bridges to emerging toxicology paradigms. In this overview paper, we present an overview of the field and introduction for these papers that includes discussions of model development, best practices, risk-assessment applications of PBPK models, and limitations and bridges of modeling approaches for future applications. Specifically, issues addressed include: (a increased understanding of human variability of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in the population, (b exploration of mode of action hypotheses (MOA, (c application of biological modeling in the risk assessment of individual chemicals and chemical mixtures, and (d identification and discussion of uncertainties in the modeling process.

  11. Preliminary results of an attempt to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassardo, C.; Loglisci, N.

    2005-01-01

    In the recent years, there has been a significant growth in the recognition of the soil moisture importance in large-scale hydrology and climate modelling. Soil moisture is a lower boundary condition, which rules the partitioning of energy in terms of sensible and latent heat flux. Wrong estimations of soil moisture lead to wrong simulation of the surface layer evolution and hence precipitations and cloud cover forecasts could be consequently affected. This is true for large scale medium-range weather forecasts as well as for local-scale short range weather forecasts, particularly in those situations in which local convection is well developed. Unfortunately; despite the importance of this physical parameter there are only few soil moisture data sets sparse in time and in space around in the world. Due to this scarcity of soil moisture observations, we developed an alternative method to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models. In this paper are presented the preliminary results of an attempt to verify soil moisture fields predicted by a mesoscale model. The data for the comparison were provided by the simulations of the diagnostic land surface scheme LSPM (Land Surface Process Model), widely used at the Piedmont Regional Weather Service for agro-meteorological purposes. To this end, LSPM was initialized and driven by Synop observations, while the surface (vegetation and soil) parameter values were initialized by ECOCLIMAP global dataset at 1km 2 resolution

  12. Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

  13. A Global Remote Laboratory Experimentation Network and the Experiment Service Provider Business Model and Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor Ivar Eikaas

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from the IST KAII Trial project ReLAX - Remote LAboratory eXperimentation trial (IST 1999-20827, and contributes with a framework for a global remote laboratory experimentation network supported by a new business model. The paper presents this new Experiment Service Provider business model that aims at bringing physical experimentation back into the learning arena, where remotely operable laboratory experiments used in advanced education and training schemes are made available to a global education and training market in industry and academia. The business model is based on an approach where individual experiment owners offer remote access to their high-quality laboratory facilities to users around the world. The usage can be for research, education, on-the-job training etc. The access to these facilities is offered via an independent operating company - the Experiment Service Provider. The Experiment Service Provider offers eCommerce services like booking, access control, invoicing, dispute resolution, quality control, customer evaluation services and a unified Lab Portal.

  14. Providing comprehensive and consistent access to astronomical observatory archive data: the NASA archive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlynn, Thomas; Fabbiano, Giuseppina; Accomazzi, Alberto; Smale, Alan; White, Richard L.; Donaldson, Thomas; Aloisi, Alessandra; Dower, Theresa; Mazzerella, Joseph M.; Ebert, Rick; Pevunova, Olga; Imel, David; Berriman, Graham B.; Teplitz, Harry I.; Groom, Steve L.; Desai, Vandana R.; Landry, Walter

    2016-07-01

    Since the turn of the millennium a constant concern of astronomical archives have begun providing data to the public through standardized protocols unifying data from disparate physical sources and wavebands across the electromagnetic spectrum into an astronomical virtual observatory (VO). In October 2014, NASA began support for the NASA Astronomical Virtual Observatories (NAVO) program to coordinate the efforts of NASA astronomy archives in providing data to users through implementation of protocols agreed within the International Virtual Observatory Alliance (IVOA). A major goal of the NAVO collaboration has been to step back from a piecemeal implementation of IVOA standards and define what the appropriate presence for the US and NASA astronomy archives in the VO should be. This includes evaluating what optional capabilities in the standards need to be supported, the specific versions of standards that should be used, and returning feedback to the IVOA, to support modifications as needed. We discuss a standard archive model developed by the NAVO for data archive presence in the virtual observatory built upon a consistent framework of standards defined by the IVOA. Our standard model provides for discovery of resources through the VO registries, access to observation and object data, downloads of image and spectral data and general access to archival datasets. It defines specific protocol versions, minimum capabilities, and all dependencies. The model will evolve as the capabilities of the virtual observatory and needs of the community change.

  15. Light neutron-rich hypernuclei from the importance-truncated no-core shell model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Wirth

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We explore the systematics of ground-state and excitation energies in singly-strange hypernuclei throughout the helium and lithium isotopic chains — from HeΛ5 to HeΛ11 and from LiΛ7 to LiΛ12 — in the ab initio no-core shell model with importance truncation. All calculations are based on two- and three-baryon interaction from chiral effective field theory and we employ a similarity renormalization group transformation consistently up to the three-baryon level to improve the model-space convergence. While the absolute energies of hypernuclear states show a systematic variation with the regulator cutoff of the hyperon–nucleon interaction, the resulting neutron separation energies are very stable and in good agreement with available data for both nucleonic parents and their daughter hypernuclei. We provide predictions for the neutron separation energies and the spectra of neutron-rich hypernuclei that have not yet been observed experimentally. Furthermore, we find that the neutron drip lines in the helium and lithium isotopic chains are not changed by the addition of a hyperon. Keywords: Hypernuclei, Ab-initio methods, Neutron-rich nuclei, Neutron separation energies, Neutron drip line

  16. Light neutron-rich hypernuclei from the importance-truncated no-core shell model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Roland; Roth, Robert

    2018-04-01

    We explore the systematics of ground-state and excitation energies in singly-strange hypernuclei throughout the helium and lithium isotopic chains - from He5Λ to He11Λ and from Li7Λ to Li12Λ - in the ab initio no-core shell model with importance truncation. All calculations are based on two- and three-baryon interaction from chiral effective field theory and we employ a similarity renormalization group transformation consistently up to the three-baryon level to improve the model-space convergence. While the absolute energies of hypernuclear states show a systematic variation with the regulator cutoff of the hyperon-nucleon interaction, the resulting neutron separation energies are very stable and in good agreement with available data for both nucleonic parents and their daughter hypernuclei. We provide predictions for the neutron separation energies and the spectra of neutron-rich hypernuclei that have not yet been observed experimentally. Furthermore, we find that the neutron drip lines in the helium and lithium isotopic chains are not changed by the addition of a hyperon.

  17. Agent-based organizational modelling for analysis of safety culture at an air navigation service provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Kirwan, Barry

    2011-01-01

    Assessment of safety culture is done predominantly by questionnaire-based studies, which tend to reveal attitudes on immaterial characteristics (values, beliefs, norms). There is a need for a better understanding of the implications of the material aspects of an organization (structures, processes, etc.) for safety culture and their interactions with the immaterial characteristics. This paper presents a new agent-based organizational modelling approach for integrated and systematic evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations in safety culture analysis. It uniquely considers both the formal organization and the value- and belief-driven behaviour of individuals in the organization. Results are presented of a model for safety occurrence reporting at an air navigation service provider. Model predictions consistent with questionnaire-based results are achieved. A sensitivity analysis provides insight in organizational factors that strongly influence safety culture indicators. The modelling approach can be used in combination with attitude-focused safety culture research, towards an integrated evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations. By using this approach an organization is able to gain a deeper understanding of causes of diverse problems and inefficiencies both in the formal organization and in the behaviour of organizational agents, and to systematically identify and evaluate improvement options.

  18. Pharmacists providing care in the outpatient setting through telemedicine models: a narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Littauer SL

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Telemedicine refers to the delivery of clinical services using technology that allows two-way, real time, interactive communication between the patient and the clinician at a distant site. Commonly, telemedicine is used to improve access to general and specialty care for patients in rural areas. This review aims to provide an overview of existing telemedicine models involving the delivery of care by pharmacists via telemedicine (including telemonitoring and video, but excluding follow-up telephone calls and to highlight the main areas of chronic-disease management where these models have been applied. Studies within the areas of hypertension, diabetes, asthma, anticoagulation and depression were identified, but only two randomized controlled trials with adequate sample size demonstrating the positive impact of telemonitoring combined with pharmacist care in hypertension were identified. The evidence for the impact of pharmacist-based telemedicine models is sparse and weak, with the studies conducted presenting serious threats to internal and external validity. Therefore, no definitive conclusions about the impact of pharmacist-led telemedicine models can be made at this time. In the Unites States, the increasing shortage of primary care providers and specialists represents an opportunity for pharmacists to assume a more prominent role managing patients with chronic disease in the ambulatory care setting. However, lack of reimbursement may pose a barrier to the provision of care by pharmacists using telemedicine.

  19. Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Liana N; Elkin, Ché; Martin, Tara G; Possinghami, Hugh P

    2009-04-01

    Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the "best model" according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a

  20. Providing a New Model for Discovering Cloud Services Based on Ontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Heydari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to its efficient, flexible, and dynamic substructure in information technology and service quality parameters estimation, cloud computing has become one of the most important issues in computer world. Discovering cloud services has been posed as a fundamental issue in reaching out high efficiency. In order to do one’s own operations in cloud space, any user needs to request several various services either simultaneously or according to a working routine. These services can be presented by different cloud producers or different decision-making policies. Therefore, service management is one of the important and challenging issues in cloud computing. With the advent of semantic web and practical services accordingly in cloud computing space, access to different kinds of applications has become possible. Ontology is the core of semantic web and can be used to ease the process of discovering services. A new model based on ontology has been proposed in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed model has explored cloud services based on user search results in lesser time compared to other models.

  1. Modeling fMRI signals can provide insights into neural processing in the cerebral cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanni, Simo; Sharifian, Fariba; Heikkinen, Hanna; Vigário, Ricardo

    2015-08-01

    Every stimulus or task activates multiple areas in the mammalian cortex. These distributed activations can be measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which has the best spatial resolution among the noninvasive brain imaging methods. Unfortunately, the relationship between the fMRI activations and distributed cortical processing has remained unclear, both because the coupling between neural and fMRI activations has remained poorly understood and because fMRI voxels are too large to directly sense the local neural events. To get an idea of the local processing given the macroscopic data, we need models to simulate the neural activity and to provide output that can be compared with fMRI data. Such models can describe neural mechanisms as mathematical functions between input and output in a specific system, with little correspondence to physiological mechanisms. Alternatively, models can be biomimetic, including biological details with straightforward correspondence to experimental data. After careful balancing between complexity, computational efficiency, and realism, a biomimetic simulation should be able to provide insight into how biological structures or functions contribute to actual data processing as well as to promote theory-driven neuroscience experiments. This review analyzes the requirements for validating system-level computational models with fMRI. In particular, we study mesoscopic biomimetic models, which include a limited set of details from real-life networks and enable system-level simulations of neural mass action. In addition, we discuss how recent developments in neurophysiology and biophysics may significantly advance the modelling of fMRI signals. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  2. The importance of spatial ability and mental models in learning anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Allison K.

    As a foundational course in medical education, gross anatomy serves to orient medical and veterinary students to the complex three-dimensional nature of the structures within the body. Understanding such spatial relationships is both fundamental and crucial for achievement in gross anatomy courses, and is essential for success as a practicing professional. Many things contribute to learning spatial relationships; this project focuses on a few key elements: (1) the type of multimedia resources, particularly computer-aided instructional (CAI) resources, medical students used to study and learn; (2) the influence of spatial ability on medical and veterinary students' gross anatomy grades and their mental models; and (3) how medical and veterinary students think about anatomy and describe the features of their mental models to represent what they know about anatomical structures. The use of computer-aided instruction (CAI) by gross anatomy students at Indiana University School of Medicine (IUSM) was assessed through a questionnaire distributed to the regional centers of the IUSM. Students reported using internet browsing, PowerPoint presentation software, and email on a daily bases to study gross anatomy. This study reveals that first-year medical students at the IUSM make limited use of CAI to study gross anatomy. Such studies emphasize the importance of examining students' use of CAI to study gross anatomy prior to development and integration of electronic media into the curriculum and they may be important in future decisions regarding the development of alternative learning resources. In order to determine how students think about anatomical relationships and describe the features of their mental models, personal interviews were conducted with select students based on students' ROT scores. Five typologies of the characteristics of students' mental models were identified and described: spatial thinking, kinesthetic approach, identification of anatomical structures

  3. Scientist Role Models in the Classroom: How Important Is Gender Matching?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Laura D. Carsten; Danielson, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Gender-matched role models are often proposed as a mechanism to increase identification with science among girls, with the ultimate aim of broadening participation in science. While there is a great deal of evidence suggesting that role models can be effective, there is mixed support in the literature for the importance of gender matching. We used…

  4. The importance of regional models in assessing canine cancer incidences in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boo, Gianluca; Leyk, Stefan; Brunsdon, Christopher; Graf, Ramona; Pospischil, Andreas; Fabrikant, Sara Irina

    2018-01-01

    Fitting canine cancer incidences through a conventional regression model assumes constant statistical relationships across the study area in estimating the model coefficients. However, it is often more realistic to consider that these relationships may vary over space. Such a condition, known as spatial non-stationarity, implies that the model coefficients need to be estimated locally. In these kinds of local models, the geographic scale, or spatial extent, employed for coefficient estimation may also have a pervasive influence. This is because important variations in the local model coefficients across geographic scales may impact the understanding of local relationships. In this study, we fitted canine cancer incidences across Swiss municipal units through multiple regional models. We computed diagnostic summaries across the different regional models, and contrasted them with the diagnostics of the conventional regression model, using value-by-alpha maps and scalograms. The results of this comparative assessment enabled us to identify variations in the goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimates. We detected spatially non-stationary relationships, in particular, for the variables related to biological risk factors. These variations in the model coefficients were more important at small geographic scales, making a case for the need to model canine cancer incidences locally in contrast to more conventional global approaches. However, we contend that prior to undertaking local modeling efforts, a deeper understanding of the effects of geographic scale is needed to better characterize and identify local model relationships.

  5. runjags: An R Package Providing Interface Utilities, Model Templates, Parallel Computing Methods and Additional Distributions for MCMC Models in JAGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Denwood

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The runjags package provides a set of interface functions to facilitate running Markov chain Monte Carlo models in JAGS from within R. Automated calculation of appropriate convergence and sample length diagnostics, user-friendly access to commonly used graphical outputs and summary statistics, and parallelized methods of running JAGS are provided. Template model specifications can be generated using a standard lme4-style formula interface to assist users less familiar with the BUGS syntax. Automated simulation study functions are implemented to facilitate model performance assessment, as well as drop-k type cross-validation studies, using high performance computing clusters such as those provided by parallel. A module extension for JAGS is also included within runjags, providing the Pareto family of distributions and a series of minimally-informative priors including the DuMouchel and half-Cauchy priors. This paper outlines the primary functions of this package, and gives an illustration of a simulation study to assess the sensitivity of two equivalent model formulations to different prior distributions.

  6. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  7. Modelling intentions to provide smoking cessation support among mental health professionals in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankers, Matthijs; Buisman, Renate; Hopman, Petra; van Gool, Ronald; van Laar, Margriet

    2016-01-01

    Tobacco use prevalence is elevated among people with mental illnesses, leading to elevated rates of premature smoking-related mortality. Opportunities to encourage smoking cessation among them are currently underused by mental health professionals. In this paper, we aim to explore mechanisms to invigorate professionals' intentions to help patients stop smoking. Data stem from a recent staff survey on the provision of smoking cessation support to patients with mental illnesses in the Netherlands. Items and underlying constructs were based on the theory of planned behaviour and literature on habitual behaviour. Data were weighted and only data from staff members with regular patient contact (n = 506) were included. Descriptive statistics of the survey items are presented and in a second step using structural equation modelling (SEM), we regressed the latent variables attitudes, subjective norms (SN), perceived behavioural control (PBC), past cessation support behaviour (PB) and current smoking behaviour on intentions to provide support. In optimisation steps, models comprising a subset of this initial model were evaluated. A sample of 506 mental health workers who had direct contact with patients completed the survey. The majority of them were females (70.0 %), respondents had an average age of 42.5 years (SD = 12.0). Seventy-five percent had at least a BSc educational background. Of the respondents, 76 % indicated that patients should be encouraged more to quit smoking. Respondents were supportive to train their direct colleagues to provide cessation support more often (71 %) and also supported the involvement of mental health care facilities in providing cessation support to patients (69 %). The majority of the respondents feels capable to provide cessation support (66 %). Two thirds of the respondents wants to provide support, however only a minority (35 %) intends to actually do so during the coming year. Next, using SEM an acceptable fit was

  8. Importance of Personalized Health-Care Models: A Case Study in Activity Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdravevski, Eftim; Lameski, Petre; Trajkovik, Vladimir; Pombo, Nuno; Garcia, Nuno

    2018-01-01

    Novel information and communication technologies create possibilities to change the future of health care. Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) is seen as a promising supplement of the current care models. The main goal of AAL solutions is to apply ambient intelligence technologies to enable elderly people to continue to live in their preferred environments. Applying trained models from health data is challenging because the personalized environments could differ significantly than the ones which provided training data. This paper investigates the effects on activity recognition accuracy using single accelerometer of personalized models compared to models built on general population. In addition, we propose a collaborative filtering based approach which provides balance between fully personalized models and generic models. The results show that the accuracy could be improved to 95% with fully personalized models, and up to 91.6% with collaborative filtering based models, which is significantly better than common models that exhibit accuracy of 85.1%. The collaborative filtering approach seems to provide highly personalized models with substantial accuracy, while overcoming the cold start problem that is common for fully personalized models.

  9. A microbial clock provides an accurate estimate of the postmortem interval in a mouse model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Wegener Parfrey, Laura; Gonzalez, Antonio; Lauber, Christian L; Knights, Dan; Ackermann, Gail; Humphrey, Gregory C; Gebert, Matthew J; Van Treuren, Will; Berg-Lyons, Donna; Keepers, Kyle; Guo, Yan; Bullard, James; Fierer, Noah; Carter, David O; Knight, Rob

    2013-01-01

    Establishing the time since death is critical in every death investigation, yet existing techniques are susceptible to a range of errors and biases. For example, forensic entomology is widely used to assess the postmortem interval (PMI), but errors can range from days to months. Microbes may provide a novel method for estimating PMI that avoids many of these limitations. Here we show that postmortem microbial community changes are dramatic, measurable, and repeatable in a mouse model system, allowing PMI to be estimated within approximately 3 days over 48 days. Our results provide a detailed understanding of bacterial and microbial eukaryotic ecology within a decomposing corpse system and suggest that microbial community data can be developed into a forensic tool for estimating PMI. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01104.001 PMID:24137541

  10. Low level radiation: how does the linear without threshold model provide the safety of Canadian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2010-01-01

    The linear without threshold model is a model of risk used worldwide by the most of health organisms of nuclear regulation in order to establish dose limits for workers and public. It is in the heart of the approach adopted by the Canadian commission of nuclear safety (C.C.S.N.) in matter of radiation protection. The linear without threshold model presumes reasonably it exists a direct link between radiation exposure and cancer rate. It does not exist scientific evidence that chronicle exposure to radiation doses under 100 milli sievert (mSv) leads harmful effects on health. Several scientific reports highlighted scientific evidences that seem indicate a low level of radiation is less harmful than the linear without threshold predicts. As the linear without threshold model presumes that any radiation exposure brings risks, the ALARA principle obliges the licensees to get the radiation exposure at the lowest reasonably achievable level, social and economical factors taken into account. ALARA principle constitutes a basic principle in the C.C.S.N. approach in matter of radiation protection; On the radiation protection plan, C.C.S.N. gets a careful approach that allows to provide health and safety of Canadian people and the protection of their environment. (N.C.)

  11. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  12. TRANSIT: model for providing generic transportation input for preliminary siting analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNair, G.W.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1985-02-01

    To assist the US Department of Energy's efforts in potential facility site screening in the nuclear waste management program, a computerized model, TRANSIT, is being developed. Utilizing existing data on the location and inventory characteristics of spent nuclear fuel at reactor sites, TRANSIT derives isopleths of transportation mileage, costs, risks and fleet requirements for shipments to storage sites and/or repository sites. This technique provides a graphic, first-order method for use by the Department in future site screening efforts. 2 refs

  13. Important configurations in six-quark N-N states. II. Current quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stancu, F.; Wilets, L.

    1989-01-01

    Quark basis states constructed from molecular-type orbitals were shown previously to be more convenient to use than cluster model states for N-N processes. The usual cluster model representation omits configurations which emerge naturally in a molecular basis which contains the same number of spatial functions. The importance of the omitted states was demonstrated for a constituent quark model. The present work extends the study to the prototypical current quark model, namely the MIT bag. In order to test the expansion for short-range N-N interactions, the eigenstates and eigenenergies of six quarks in a spherical bag, including one-gluon exchange, are calculated. The lowest eigenenergies are lowered significantly with respect to the usual cluster model. This reaffirms the importance of dynamics for obtaining the needed short-range repulsion

  14. A hybrid reliability algorithm using PSO-optimized Kriging model and adaptive importance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Cao; Gong, Haili

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to reduce the computational cost of reliability analysis. A new hybrid algorithm is proposed based on PSO-optimized Kriging model and adaptive importance sampling method. Firstly, the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) is used to optimize the parameters of Kriging model. A typical function is fitted to validate improvement by comparing results of PSO-optimized Kriging model with those of the original Kriging model. Secondly, a hybrid algorithm for reliability analysis combined optimized Kriging model and adaptive importance sampling is proposed. Two cases from literatures are given to validate the efficiency and correctness. The proposed method is proved to be more efficient due to its application of small number of sample points according to comparison results.

  15. Modeling self on others: An import theory of subjectivity and selfhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinz, Wolfgang

    2017-03-01

    This paper outlines an Import Theory of subjectivity and selfhood. Import theory claims that subjectivity is initially perceived as a key feature of other minds before it then becomes imported from other minds to own minds whereby it lays the ground for mental selfhood. Import theory builds on perception-production matching, which in turn draws on both representational mechanisms and social practices. Representational mechanisms rely on common coding of perception and production. Social practices rely on action mirroring in dyadic interactions. The interplay between mechanisms and practices gives rise to model self on others. Individuals become intentional agents in virtue of perceiving others mirroring themselves. The outline of the theory is preceded by an introductory section that locates import theory in the broader context of competing approaches, and it is followed by a concluding section that assesses import theory in terms of empirical evidence and explanatory power. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Do NHS walk-in centres in England provide a model of integrated care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Salisbury

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To undertake a comprehensive evaluation of NHS walk-in centres against criteria of improved access, quality, user satisfaction and efficiency. Context: Forty NHS walk-in centres have been opened in England, as part of the UK governments agenda to modernise the NHS. They are intended to improve access to primary care, provide high quality treatment at convenient times, and reduce inappropriate demand on other NHS providers. Care is provided by nurses rather than doctors, using computerised algorithms, and nurses use protocols to supply treatments previously only available from doctors. Data sources: Several linked studies were conducted using different sources of data and methodologies. These included routinely collected data, site visits, patient interviews, a survey of users of walk-in centres, a study using simulated patients to assess quality of care, analysis of consultation rates in NHS services near to walk-in centres, and audit of compliance with protocols. Conclusion & discussion: The findings illustrate many of the issues described in a recent WHO reflective paper on Integrated Care, including tensions between professional judgement and use of protocols, problems with incompatible IT systems, balancing users' demands and needs, the importance of understanding health professionals' roles and issues of technical versus allocative efficiency.

  17. Quantitative Hydraulic Models Of Early Land Plants Provide Insight Into Middle Paleozoic Terrestrial Paleoenvironmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. P.; Fischer, W. W.

    2010-12-01

    Fossil plants provide useful proxies of Earth’s climate because plants are closely connected, through physiology and morphology, to the environments in which they lived. Recent advances in quantitative hydraulic models of plant water transport provide new insight into the history of climate by allowing fossils to speak directly to environmental conditions based on preserved internal anatomy. We report results of a quantitative hydraulic model applied to one of the earliest terrestrial plants preserved in three dimensions, the ~396 million-year-old vascular plant Asteroxylon mackei. This model combines equations describing the rate of fluid flow through plant tissues with detailed observations of plant anatomy; this allows quantitative estimates of two critical aspects of plant function. First and foremost, results from these models quantify the supply of water to evaporative surfaces; second, results describe the ability of plant vascular systems to resist tensile damage from extreme environmental events, such as drought or frost. This approach permits quantitative comparisons of functional aspects of Asteroxylon with other extinct and extant plants, informs the quality of plant-based environmental proxies, and provides concrete data that can be input into climate models. Results indicate that despite their small size, water transport cells in Asteroxylon could supply a large volume of water to the plant's leaves--even greater than cells from some later-evolved seed plants. The smallest Asteroxylon tracheids have conductivities exceeding 0.015 m^2 / MPa * s, whereas Paleozoic conifer tracheids do not reach this threshold until they are three times wider. However, this increase in conductivity came at the cost of little to no adaptations for transport safety, placing the plant’s vegetative organs in jeopardy during drought events. Analysis of the thickness-to-span ratio of Asteroxylon’s tracheids suggests that environmental conditions of reduced relative

  18. A hierarchy of functionally important relaxations within myoglobin based on solvent effects, mutations and kinetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantsker, David; Samuni, Uri; Friedman, Joel M; Agmon, Noam

    2005-06-01

    Geminate CO rebinding in myoglobin is studied for two viscous solvents, trehalose and sol-gel (bathed in 100% glycerol) at several temperatures. Mutations in key distal hemepocket residues are used to eliminate or enhance specific relaxation modes. The time-resolved data are analyzed with a modified Agmon-Hopfield model which is capable of providing excellent fits in cases where a single relaxation mode is dominant. Using this approach, we determine the relaxation rate constants of specific functionally important modes, obtaining also their Arrhenius activation energies. We find a hierarchy of distal pocket modes controlling the rebinding kinetics. The "heme access mode" (HAM) is responsible for the major slow-down in rebinding. It is a solvent-coupled cooperative mode which restricts ligand return from the xenon cavities. Bulky side-chains, like those His64 and Trp29 (in the L29W mutant), operate like overdamped pendulums which move over and block the binding site. They may be either unslaved (His64) or moderately slaved (Trp29) to the solvent. Small side-chain relaxations, most notably of leucines, are revealed in some mutants (V68L, V68A). They are conjectured to facilitate inter-cavity ligand motion. When all relaxations are arrested (H64L in trehalose), we observe pure inhomogeneous kinetics with no temperature dependence, suggesting that proximal relaxation is not a factor on the investigated timescale.

  19. Importance analysis for models with correlated variables and its sparse grid solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Luyi; Lu, Zhenzhou

    2013-01-01

    For structural models involving correlated input variables, a novel interpretation for variance-based importance measures is proposed based on the contribution of the correlated input variables to the variance of the model output. After the novel interpretation of the variance-based importance measures is compared with the existing ones, two solutions of the variance-based importance measures of the correlated input variables are built on the sparse grid numerical integration (SGI): double-loop nested sparse grid integration (DSGI) method and single loop sparse grid integration (SSGI) method. The DSGI method solves the importance measure by decreasing the dimensionality of the input variables procedurally, while SSGI method performs importance analysis through extending the dimensionality of the inputs. Both of them can make full use of the advantages of the SGI, and are well tailored for different situations. By analyzing the results of several numerical and engineering examples, it is found that the novel proposed interpretation about the importance measures of the correlated input variables is reasonable, and the proposed methods for solving importance measures are efficient and accurate. -- Highlights: •The contribution of correlated variables to the variance of the output is analyzed. •A novel interpretation for variance-based indices of correlated variables is proposed. •Two solutions for variance-based importance measures of correlated variables are built

  20. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  1. Neuropsychologists as primary care providers of cognitive health: A novel comprehensive cognitive wellness service delivery model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimental, Patricia A; O'Hara, John B; Jandak, Jessica L

    2018-01-01

    By virtue of their extensive knowledge base and specialized training in brain-behavior relationships, neuropsychologists are especially poised to execute a unique broad-based approach to overall cognitive wellness and should be viewed as primary care providers of cognitive health. This article will describe a novel comprehensive cognitive wellness service delivery model including cognitive health, anti-aging, lifelong wellness, and longevity-oriented practices. These practice areas include brain-based cognitive wellness, emotional and spiritually centric exploration, and related multimodality health interventions. As experts in mind-body connections, neuropsychologists can provide a variety of evidence-based treatment options, empowering patients with a sense of value and purpose. Multiple areas of clinical therapy skill-based learning, tailor-made to fit individual needs, will be discussed including: brain stimulating activities, restorative techniques, automatic negative thoughts and maladaptive thinking reduction, inflammation and pain management techniques, nutrition and culinary focused cognitive wellness, spirituality based practices and mindfulness, movement and exercise, alternative/complimentary therapies, relationship restoration/social engagement, and trauma healing/meaning. Cognitive health rests upon the foundation of counteracting mind-body connection disruptions from multiple etiologies including inflammation, chronic stress, metabolic issues, cardiac conditions, autoimmune disease, neurological disorders, infectious diseases, and allergy spectrum disorders. Superimposed on these issues are lifestyle patterns and negative health behaviors that develop as ill-fated compensatory mechanisms used to cope with life stressors and aging. The brain and body are electrical systems that can "short circuit." The therapy practices inherent in the proposed cognitive wellness service delivery model can provide preventative insulation and circuit breaking against

  2. Mathematical modeling provides kinetic details of the human immune response to vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin eLe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With major advances in experimental techniques to track antigen-specific immune responses many basic questions on the kinetics of virus-specific immunity in humans remain unanswered. To gain insights into kinetics of T and B cell responses in human volunteers we combine mathematical models and experimental data from recent studies employing vaccines against yellow fever and smallpox. Yellow fever virus-specific CD8 T cell population expanded slowly with the average doubling time of 2 days peaking 2.5 weeks post immunization. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the yellow fever-specific CD8 T cell response is determined by the rate of T cell proliferation and not by the precursor frequency of antigen-specific cells as has been suggested in several studies in mice. We also found that while the frequency of virus-specific T cells increases slowly, the slow increase can still accurately explain clearance of yellow fever virus in the blood. Our additional mathematical model describes well the kinetics of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell and antibody response to vaccinia virus in vaccinated individuals suggesting that most of antibodies in 3 months post immunization are derived from the population of circulating antibody-secreting cells. Taken together, our analysis provides novel insights into mechanisms by which live vaccines induce immunity to viral infections and highlight challenges of applying methods of mathematical modeling to the current, state-of-the-art yet limited immunological data.

  3. Mathematical modeling provides kinetic details of the human immune response to vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Dustin; Miller, Joseph D; Ganusov, Vitaly V

    2014-01-01

    With major advances in experimental techniques to track antigen-specific immune responses many basic questions on the kinetics of virus-specific immunity in humans remain unanswered. To gain insights into kinetics of T and B cell responses in human volunteers we combined mathematical models and experimental data from recent studies employing vaccines against yellow fever and smallpox. Yellow fever virus-specific CD8 T cell population expanded slowly with the average doubling time of 2 days peaking 2.5 weeks post immunization. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the yellow fever-specific CD8 T cell response was determined by the rate of T cell proliferation and not by the precursor frequency of antigen-specific cells as has been suggested in several studies in mice. We also found that while the frequency of virus-specific T cells increased slowly, the slow increase could still accurately explain clearance of yellow fever virus in the blood. Our additional mathematical model described well the kinetics of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell and antibody response to vaccinia virus in vaccinated individuals suggesting that most of antibodies in 3 months post immunization were derived from the population of circulating antibody-secreting cells. Taken together, our analysis provided novel insights into mechanisms by which live vaccines induce immunity to viral infections and highlighted challenges of applying methods of mathematical modeling to the current, state-of-the-art yet limited immunological data.

  4. MODEL REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE ENERGY AND OTHER ATTRIBUTES FROM AN OFFSHORE WIND POWER PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeremy Firestone; Dawn Kurtz Crompton

    2011-10-22

    This document provides a model RFP for new generation. The 'base' RFP is for a single-source offshore wind RFP. Required modifications are noted should a state or utility seek multi-source bids (e.g., all renewables or all sources). The model is premised on proposals meeting threshold requirements (e.g., a MW range of generating capacity and a range in terms of years), RFP issuer preferences (e.g., likelihood of commercial operation by a date certain, price certainty, and reduction in congestion), and evaluation criteria, along with a series of plans (e.g., site, environmental effects, construction, community outreach, interconnection, etc.). The Model RFP places the most weight on project risk (45%), followed by project economics (35%), and environmental and social considerations (20%). However, if a multi-source RFP is put forward, the sponsor would need to either add per-MWh technology-specific, life-cycle climate (CO2), environmental and health impact costs to bid prices under the 'Project Economics' category or it should increase the weight given to the 'Environmental and Social Considerations' category.

  5. Creating a market: an economic analysis of the purchaser-provider model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackley, P; Healey, A

    1993-09-01

    The focus of this paper is the extent to which the purchaser-provider split and the creation of a market in the provision of health care can be expected to bring about greater efficiency within the new NHS. The starting point is a theoretical discussion of markets and competition. In particular, emphasis is placed upon the economic model of perfect competition. It is argued that because of the existence of externalities, uncertainty and a lack of perfect information, an unregulated market in health care will almost certainly fail. In view of this, the imperfect provider markets of monopoly and contestable markets, which are of particular relevance to health care, are discussed. A description of the new health care market and the principal actors within it is followed by an evaluation of the new health care market. It is argued that in view of the restrictions to competition that exist between providers, some form of price regulation will be necessary to prevent monopolistic behaviour in the hospital sector. Regulation of purchasers is also suggested as a means of improving efficiency. It is concluded that competition may be a necessary condition for increased efficiency in health care provision, but is not sufficient in itself. Other incentives in the hospital sector are necessary to assist the market process and to enhance its impact on efficiency.

  6. Little Evidence Exists To Support The Expectation That Providers Would Consolidate To Enter New Payment Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neprash, Hannah T; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2017-02-01

    Provider consolidation has been associated with higher health care prices and spending. The prevailing wisdom is that payment reform will accelerate consolidation, especially between physicians and hospitals and among physician groups, as providers position themselves to bear financial risk for the full continuum of patient care. Drawing on data from a number of sources from 2008 onward, we examined the relationship between Medicare's accountable care organization (ACO) programs and provider consolidation. We found that consolidation was under way in the period 2008-10, before the Affordable Care Act (ACA) established the ACO programs. While the number of hospital mergers and the size of specialty-oriented physician groups increased after the ACA was passed, we found minimal evidence that consolidation was associated with ACO penetration at the market level or with physicians' participation in ACOs within markets. We conclude that payment reform has been associated with little acceleration in consolidation in addition to trends already under way, but there is evidence of potential defensive consolidation in response to new payment models. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  7. Ab Initio Study of 40Ca with an Importance Truncated No-Core Shell Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roth, R; Navratil, P

    2007-05-22

    We propose an importance truncation scheme for the no-core shell model, which enables converged calculations for nuclei well beyond the p-shell. It is based on an a priori measure for the importance of individual basis states constructed by means of many-body perturbation theory. Only the physically relevant states of the no-core model space are considered, which leads to a dramatic reduction of the basis dimension. We analyze the validity and efficiency of this truncation scheme using different realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and compare to conventional no-core shell model calculations for {sup 4}He and {sup 16}O. Then, we present the first converged calculations for the ground state of {sup 40}Ca within no-core model spaces including up to 16{h_bar}{Omega}-excitations using realistic low-momentum interactions. The scheme is universal and can be easily applied to other quantum many-body problems.

  8. Developing a community based service model for disability: Listening to the needs of all beneficiaries and providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Katrina

    2017-12-11

    To inform the strategic and operational development of a community based service model at the Crann Centre, Cork, Ireland for SB children, adults, their families and providers. A needs assessment was conducted by gathering the views of multiple stakeholder perspectives within the SB community in the geographical region the Centre will serve. The intention is to create project deliverables that are responsive to the needs highlighted through this research. The study used a multi method design with a participatory research approach to explore the needs of SB individuals, families and providers. This involved in depth interviews, focus groups and online surveys. One hundred and fifty-nine respondents contributed to this qualitative needs assessment. The research established a range of psychosocial, clinical, vocational and educational issues causing ongoing difficulties for SB individuals and families. Providers highlighted supports that would benefit the social and clinical wellbeing of persons with SB. Collectively participants in the study reported that there was an absence of coordinated, continuous and comprehensive service delivery for the SB community in the region. This was amplified by geographical location of services and access to relevant supports. Consensus across stakeholders in this research pointed to the necessity for an innovative model of community based provision at the Crann Centre. This was described as offering a service with family at the core of an assets based model of practice. A key finding was the lack of importance placed on the social and emotional development of SB individuals. Traditionally participants described a singular focus on physical health through clinically defined treatment models. The desire for a social model of disability that informed health and wellbeing of SB individuals and families emerged as a prominent recommendation from the research.

  9. The Nordic welfare model providing energy transition? A political geography approach to the EU RES directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westholm, Erik; Beland Lindahl, Karin

    2012-01-01

    The EU Renewable Energy Strategy (RES) Directive requires that each member state obtain 20% of its energy supply from renewable sources by 2020. If fully implemented, this implies major changes in institutions, infrastructure, land use, and natural resource flows. This study applies a political geography perspective to explore the transition to renewable energy use in the heating and cooling segment of the Swedish energy system, 1980–2010. The Nordic welfare model, which developed mainly after the Second World War, required relatively uniform, standardized local and regional authorities functioning as implementation agents for national politics. Since 1980, the welfare orientation has gradually been complemented by competition politics promoting technological change, innovation, and entrepreneurship. This combination of welfare state organization and competition politics provided the dynamics necessary for energy transition, which occurred in a semi-public sphere of actors at various geographical scales. However, our analysis, suggest that this was partly an unintended policy outcome, since it was based on a welfare model with no significant energy aims. Our case study suggests that state organization plays a significant role, and that the EU RES Directive implementation will be uneven across Europe, reflecting various welfare models with different institutional pre-requisites for energy transition. - Highlights: ► We explore the energy transition in the heating/cooling sector in Sweden 1980–2000. ► The role of the state is studied from a political geography perspective. ► The changing welfare model offered the necessary institutional framework. ► Institutional arrangements stand out as central to explain the relative success. ► The use of renewables in EU member states will continue to vary significantly.

  10. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations......Coherent forecasting models that take into consideration mortality changes observed in different countries are today among the essential tools for demographers, actuaries and other researchers interested in forecasts. Medium and long term life expectancy forecasts are compared for two multi...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  11. Some important results from the air pollution distribution model STACKS (1988-1992)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erbrink, J.J.

    1993-01-01

    Attention is paid to the results of the study on the distribution of air pollutants by high chimney-stacks of electric power plants. An important product of the study is the integrated distribution model STACKS (Short Term Air-pollutant Concentrations Kema modelling System). The improvements and the extensions of STACKS are described in relation to the National Model, which has been used to estimate the environmental effects of individual chimney-stacks. The National Model shows unacceptable variations for high pollutant sources. Based on the results of STACKS revision of the National model has been taken into consideration. By means of the revised National Model a more realistic estimation of the environmental effects of electric power plants can be carried out

  12. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  13. Remote sensing and modeling. A tool to provide the spatial information for biomass production potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guenther, K.P.; Wisskirchen, K.; Schroedter-Homscheidt, M. [DLR, Wessling (Germany). German Remote Sensing Data Center; Borg, E.; Fichtelmann, B. [DLR, Neustrelitz (Germany). German Remote Sensing Data Center

    2006-07-01

    Earth observation from space has been successfully demonstrated over a wide range of monitoring activities, mostly with the aim of measuring the spatial and temporal distribution of biophysical and geophysical parameters as e.g. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the land surface temperature (LST) or the land use classification (LCC). With the growing need for more reliable information of global biomass activity in the frame of climate change, the identification and quantification of carbon sinks and sources got of importance. The goal of our activities is to use time series of remote sensing data and carbon modeling to assess the biomass of large regions. Future activities will be discussed as reprocessing of archived time series (e.g. 30 years) of remote sensing data, which will be used as input to biomass modeling, improving the spatial resolution of local, historic land use maps by processing archived Landsat data (30m), using an innovative classification processor for deriving actual multi-temporal land use maps based MERIS data (300m) and delivering a biomass equivalent indicator as productivity indicator. (orig.)

  14. Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling in Pediatric Drug Development, and the Importance of Standardized Scaling of Clearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germovsek, Eva; Barker, Charlotte I S; Sharland, Mike; Standing, Joseph F

    2018-04-19

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling is important in the design and conduct of clinical pharmacology research in children. During drug development, PKPD modeling and simulation should underpin rational trial design and facilitate extrapolation to investigate efficacy and safety. The application of PKPD modeling to optimize dosing recommendations and therapeutic drug monitoring is also increasing, and PKPD model-based dose individualization will become a core feature of personalized medicine. Following extensive progress on pediatric PK modeling, a greater emphasis now needs to be placed on PD modeling to understand age-related changes in drug effects. This paper discusses the principles of PKPD modeling in the context of pediatric drug development, summarizing how important PK parameters, such as clearance (CL), are scaled with size and age, and highlights a standardized method for CL scaling in children. One standard scaling method would facilitate comparison of PK parameters across multiple studies, thus increasing the utility of existing PK models and facilitating optimal design of new studies.

  15. Animal Models in Sexual Medicine: The Need and Importance of Studying Sexual Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura-Aquino, Elisa; Paredes, Raúl G

    2017-01-01

    Many different animal models of sexual medicine have been developed, demonstrating the complexity of studying the many interactions that influence sexual responses. A great deal of effort has been invested in measuring sexual motivation using different behavioral models mainly because human behavior is more complex than any model can reproduce. To compare different animal models of male and female behaviors that measure sexual motivation as a key element in sexual medicine and focus on models that use a combination of molecular techniques and behavioral measurements. We review the literature to describe models that evaluate different aspects of sexual motivation. No single test is sufficient to evaluate sexual motivation. The best approach is to evaluate animals in different behavioral tests to measure the motivational state of the subject. Different motivated behaviors such as aggression, singing in the case of birds, and sexual behavior, which are crucial for reproduction, are associated with changes in mRNA levels of different receptors in brain areas that are important in the control of reproduction. Research in animal models is crucial to understand the complexity of sexual behavior and all the mechanisms that influence such an important aspect of human well-being to decrease the physiologic and psychological impact of sexual dysfunctions. In other cases, research in different models is necessary to understand and recognize, not cure, the variability of sexuality, such as asexuality, which is another form of sexual orientation. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Ecosystem Services Provided by Agricultural Land as Modeled by Broad Scale Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkinidis, Ioannis

    Agricultural ecosystems provide multiple services including food and fiber provision, nutrient cycling, soil retention and water regulation. Objectives of the study were to identify and quantify a selection of ecosystem services provided by agricultural land, using existing geospatial tools and preferably free and open source data, such as the Virginia Land Use Evaluation System (VALUES), the North Carolina Realistic Yield Expectations (RYE) database, and the land cover datasets NLCD and CDL. Furthermore I sought to model tradeoffs between provisioning and other services. First I assessed the accuracy of agricultural land in NLCD and CDL over a four county area in eastern Virginia using cadastral parcels. I uncovered issues concerning the definition of agricultural land. The area and location of agriculture saw little change in the 19 years studied. Furthermore all datasets have significant errors of omission (11.3 to 95.1%) and commission (0 to 71.3%). Location of agriculture was used with spatial crop yield databases I created and combined with models I adapted to calculate baseline values for plant biomass, nutrient composition and requirements, land suitability for and potential production of biofuels and the economic impact of agriculture for the four counties. The study area was then broadened to cover 97 counties in eastern Virginia and North Carolina, investigating the potential for increased regional grain production through intensification and extensification of agriculture. Predicted yield from geospatial crop models was compared with produced yield from the NASS Survey of Agriculture. Area of most crops in CDL was similar to that in the Survey of Agriculture, but a yield gap is present for most years, partially due to weather, thus indicating potential for yield increase through intensification. Using simple criteria I quantified the potential to extend agriculture in high yield land in other uses and modeled the changes in erosion and runoff should

  17. Biological Model Development as an Opportunity to Provide Content Auditing for the Foundational Model of Anatomy Ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lucy L; Grunblatt, Eli; Jung, Hyunggu; Kalet, Ira J; Whipple, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Constructing a biological model using an established ontology provides a unique opportunity to perform content auditing on the ontology. We built a Markov chain model to study tumor metastasis in the regional lymphatics of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The model attempts to determine regions with high likelihood for metastasis, which guides surgeons and radiation oncologists in selecting the boundaries of treatment. To achieve consistent anatomical relationships, the nodes in our model are populated using lymphatic objects extracted from the Foundational Model of Anatomy (FMA) ontology. During this process, we discovered several classes of inconsistencies in the lymphatic representations within the FMA. We were able to use this model building opportunity to audit the entities and connections in this region of interest (ROI). We found five subclasses of errors that are computationally detectable and resolvable, one subclass of errors that is computationally detectable but unresolvable, requiring the assistance of a content expert, and also errors of content, which cannot be detected through computational means. Mathematical descriptions of detectable errors along with expert review were used to discover inconsistencies and suggest concepts for addition and removal. Out of 106 organ and organ parts in the ROI, 8 unique entities were affected, leading to the suggestion of 30 concepts for addition and 4 for removal. Out of 27 lymphatic chain instances, 23 were found to have errors, with a total of 32 concepts suggested for addition and 15 concepts for removal. These content corrections are necessary for the accurate functioning of the FMA and provide benefits for future research and educational uses.

  18. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  19. IAEA technical meeting: Assess and co-ordinate modelling needs and data providers. Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, R.E.H.

    2004-05-01

    This report briefly describes the proceedings, conclusions and recommendations of the Technical Meeting to 'Assess and Co-ordinate Modelling Needs and Data Providers', held on 4-5 December 2003. Eight international experts on atomic and molecular data related to fusion energy research activities participated in the meeting. Each participant reviewed the current status of their own speciality and current lines of research as well as anticipated needs in new data for nuclear fusion energy research. Current CRPs on related topics were reviewed. In light of current research activities and anticipated data needs for fusion, a detailed set of tasks appropriate for a new CRP was developed. This meeting completely fulfilled the specified goals. (author)

  20. A model to compare a defined benefit pension fund with a defined contribution provident fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.M. Nevin

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available During 1994 universities and certain other institutions were given the option of setting up private retirement funds as an alternative to the AIPF. Because of the underfundedness of the AIPF only a substantially reduced Actuarial Reserve Value could be transferred to the new fund on behalf of each member. Employees at these institutions had to make the difficult decision of whether to remain a member of the AIPF or to join a new fund. Several institutions created defined contribution funds as an alternative to the AIPF. In such funds the member carries the investment risk and most institutions felt the need to provide some form of top-up of the Transfer Value. A simple mathematical model is formulated to aid in the comparison of expected retirement benefits under the AIPF and a private fund and to investigate the management problem of distributing additional top-up funds in a fair manner amongst the various age groups within the fund.

  1. Studies and research concerning BNFP. Identification and simplified modeling of economically important radwaste variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebel, P.E.; Godfrey, W.L.; Henry, J.L.; Postles, R.L.

    1983-09-01

    An extensive computer model describing the mass balance and economic characteristics of radioactive waste disposal systems was exercised in a series of runs designed using linear statistical methods. The most economically important variables were identified, their behavior characterized, and a simplified computer model prepared which runs on desk-top minicomputers. This simplified model allows the investigation of the effects of the seven most significant variables in each of four waste areas: Liquid Waste Storage, Liquid Waste Solidification, General Process Trash Handling, and Hulls Handling. 8 references, 1 figure, 12 tables

  2. A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

  3. Water quality modeling based on landscape analysis: Importance of riparian hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Grabs

    2010-01-01

    Several studies in high-latitude catchments have demonstrated the importance of near-stream riparian zones as hydrogeochemical hotspots with a substantial influence on stream chemistry. An adequate representation of the spatial variability of riparian-zone processes and characteristics is the key for modeling spatiotemporal variations of stream-water quality. This...

  4. Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Scharth, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a general likelihood evaluation method for nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models using the simulation-based method of efficient importance sampling. We minimize the simulation effort by replacing some key steps of the likelihood estimation procedure by numerical integration. We refer

  5. Freedom of Expression: Importing European & US Constitutional Models in Transitional Democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belavusau, U.

    2013-01-01

    This book considers the issue of free speech in transitional democracies focusing on the socio-legal developments in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. In showing how these Central and Eastern European countries have engaged with free speech models imported from the Council of Europe / EU and

  6. OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

  7. Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skogen, Morten D.; Moll, Andreas

    2005-09-01

    There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129-151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models. In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.

  8. The Importance of Older Family Members in Providing Social Resources and Promoting Cancer Screening in Families with a Hereditary Cancer Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashida, Sato; Hadley, Donald W.; Goergen, Andrea F.; Skapinsky, Kaley F.; Devlin, Hillary C.; Koehly, Laura M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study evaluates the role of older family members as providers of social resources within familial network systems affected by an inherited cancer susceptibility syndrome. Design and Methods: Respondents who previously participated in a study that involved genetic counseling and testing for Lynch syndrome and their family network…

  9. Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, F. Gerard; Shachmurove, Yochanan

    2008-01-01

    The Chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition: from low efficiency solid fuels to oil, gas, and electric power, from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization, from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry, from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population. Experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in China will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil, coal, and gas. We build an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy based on the energy balance. We use that model to forecast Chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020. The study suggests that China will, indeed, require rapidly growing imports of oil, coal, and gas. This growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization. It can be offset, but probably only in small part, by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use, particularly in the production of electric power. (author)

  10. Importance and variability in processes relevant to environmental tritium ingestion dose models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Barry, P.

    1997-01-01

    The Aiken List was devised in 1990 to help decide which transport processes should be investigated experimentally so as to derive the greatest improvement in performance of environmental tritium assessment models. Each process was rated high, medium and low on each of two criteria. These were ''Importance'', which rated processes by how much each contributed to ingestion doses, and ''State of Modelling'', which rated the adequacy of the knowledge base on which models were built. Ratings, though unanimous, were, nevertheless, qualitative and subjective opinions. This paper describes how we have tried to quantify the ratings. To do this, we use, as measures of ''Importance'', sensitivities of predicted ingestion doses to changes in values of parameters in mathematical descriptions of individual processes. Measures of ''ModellinStatus'' were taken from a recently completed BIOMOVS study of HTO transport model performance and based either on by how much predicted transport by individual processes differed amongst participating modellers or by the variety of different ways that modellers chose to describe individual processes. The tritium transport model UFOTRI was used, and because environmental transport of HTO varies according to the weather at and after release time, sensitivities were measured in a sample of all conditions likely to arise in central Europe. (Author)

  11. A multi-objective location-inventory model for 3PL providers with sustainable considerations under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Daghigh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, logistics development is considered as an important aspect of any country’s development. Outsourcing logistics activities to third party logistics (3PL providers is a common way to achieve logistics development. On the other hand, globalization and increasing customers’ concern about the environmental impact of activities as well as the appearance of the issue of social responsibility have led companies employ sustainable supply chain management, which considers economic, environmental and social benefits, simultaneously. This paper proposes a multi-objective model to design logistics network for 3PL providers by considering sustainable objectives under uncertainty. Objective functions include minimizing the total cost, minimizing greenhouse gas emission and maximizing social responsibility subject to fair access to products, number of created job opportunities and local community development. It is worth mentioning that in the present paper the perishability of products is also considered. A numerical example is provided to solve and validate model using augmented Epsilon-Constraint method. The results show that three sustainable objectives were in conflict and as the one receives more desirable values, the others fall into more undesirable values. In addition, by increasing maximum perishable time periods and by considering lateral transshipment among facilities of a level one can improve sustainability indices of the problem, which indicates the necessity of such policy in improving network sustainability.

  12. Providing high-quality measurement data in analytical system of air pollution monitoring and their key importance for smart cities residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Czechowski Piotr O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents selected, main elements of an air pollution automatic monitoring system with analytical subsystems concept in smart cities based on examples from Poland, implemented system in Pomerania, the concept of new system in Warsaw city and pilot research in Nowy Sącz city. All systems are the result of teamwork, ranging from design, development of new methodology and software to implementation in real-time air pollutants smart cities monitoring systems. Focused on the most neuralgic elements: data quality subsystems, new ideas of smart mobility measurement stations and their ability to use in future research and models. Special attention was paid to stochastic models and statistic methodology proposed and used in data diagnostics as analytical system engineering.

  13. IntPath--an integrated pathway gene relationship database for model organisms and important pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hufeng; Jin, Jingjing; Zhang, Haojun; Yi, Bo; Wozniak, Michal; Wong, Limsoon

    2012-01-01

    relationship errors in KEGG). We turn complicated and incompatible xml data formats and inconsistent gene and gene relationship representations from different source databases into normalized and unified pathway-gene and pathway-gene pair relationships neatly recorded in simple tab-delimited text format and MySQL tables, which facilitates convenient automatic computation and large-scale referencing in many related studies. IntPath data can be downloaded in text format or MySQL dump. IntPath data can also be retrieved and analyzed conveniently through web service by local programs or through web interface by mouse clicks. Several useful analysis tools are also provided in IntPath. We have overcome in IntPath the issues of compatibility, consistency, and comprehensiveness that often hamper effective use of pathway databases. We have included four organisms in the current release of IntPath. Our methodology and programs described in this work can be easily applied to other organisms; and we will include more model organisms and important pathogens in future releases of IntPath. IntPath maintains regular updates and is freely available at http://compbio.ddns.comp.nus.edu.sg:8080/IntPath.

  14. Salmonids, stream temperatures, and solar loading--modeling the shade provided to the Klamath River by vegetation and geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forney, William M.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Chickadel, C. Christopher

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is studying approaches to characterize the thermal regulation of water and the dynamics of cold water refugia. High temperatures have physiological impacts on anadromous fish species. Factors affecting the presence, variability, and quality of thermal refugia are known, such as riverine and watershed processes, hyporheic flows, deep pools and bathymetric factors, thermal stratification of reservoirs, and other broader climatic considerations. This research develops a conceptual model and methodological techniques to quantify the change in solar insolation load to the Klamath River caused by riparian and floodplain vegetation, the morphology of the river, and the orientation and topographic characteristics of its watersheds. Using multiple scales of input data from digital elevation models and airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derivatives, different analysis methods yielded three different model results. These models are correlated with thermal infrared imagery for ground-truth information at the focal confluence with the Scott River. Results from nonparametric correlation tests, geostatistical cross-covariograms, and cross-correlograms indicate that statistical relationships between the insolation models and the thermal infrared imagery exist and are significant. Furthermore, the use of geostatistics provides insights to the spatial structure of the relationships that would not be apparent otherwise. To incorporate a more complete representation of the temperature dynamics in the river system, other variables including the factors mentioned above, and their influence on solar loading, are discussed. With similar datasets, these methods could be applied to any river in the United States—especially those listed as temperature impaired under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act—or international riverine systems. Considering the importance of thermal refugia for aquatic species, these methods can help investigate opportunities

  15. Trichodiene Production in a Trichoderma harzianum erg1-Silenced Strain Provides Evidence of the Importance of the Sterol Biosynthetic Pathway in Inducing Plant Defense-Related Gene Expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmierca, M G; McCormick, S P; Cardoza, R E; Monte, E; Alexander, N J; Gutiérrez, S

    2015-11-01

    Trichoderma species are often used as biocontrol agents against plant-pathogenic fungi. A complex molecular interaction occurs among the biocontrol agent, the antagonistic fungus, and the plant. Terpenes and sterols produced by the biocontrol fungus have been found to affect gene expression in both the antagonistic fungus and the plant. The terpene trichodiene (TD) elicits the expression of genes related to tomato defense and to Botrytis virulence. We show here that TD itself is able to induce the expression of Botrytis genes involved in the synthesis of botrydial (BOT) and also induces terpene gene expression in Trichoderma spp. The terpene ergosterol, in addition to its role as a structural component of the fungal cell membranes, acts as an elicitor of defense response in plants. In the present work, using a transformant of T. harzianum, which is silenced in the erg1 gene and accumulates high levels of squalene, we show that this ergosterol precursor also acts as an important elicitor molecule of tomato defense-related genes and induces Botrytis genes involved in BOT biosynthesis, in both cases, in a concentration-dependent manner. Our data emphasize the importance of a balance of squalene and ergosterol in fungal interactions as well as in the biocontrol activity of Trichoderma spp.

  16. Electron scattering data as the basis for kinetic models -- what can we realistically provide, and how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckman, Stephen

    2009-10-01

    It is unlikely that anyone would dispute the important role that the availability of accurate data can play in the modeling and simulation of low temperature plasmas. Fundamental measurements of collision processes, from the relatively simple (eg. elastic scattering) to the complex (eg. molecular dissociation) are critical to developing an understanding of discharge and plasma behaviour. While there has been a healthy relationship between the data users and data gatherers at meetings such as GEC for many years, there are often misunderstandings about the capabilities that reside in each of these areas, and how best to maintain and strengthen the communication between them. This paper will attempt to summarise those electron-driven processes that are accessible, in a quantitative sense, in modern scattering experiments. Advances in treating reactive and excited species will also be discussed, as will the potential to push our measurement technologies further. An inescapable conclusion is that the collision community can best contribute through a strategic alliance between experiment and theory. Theory should be benchmarked against experiment for those processes and targets that are accessible, and used wisely for those processes where experiment cannot contribute.

  17. Using Model-Based Systems Engineering To Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-Cycle and Technical Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Edith L.; Weiland, Karen J.

    2017-01-01

    The ability of systems engineers to use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to generate self-consistent, up-to-date systems engineering products for project life-cycle and technical reviews is an important aspect for the continued and accelerated acceptance of MBSE. Currently, many review products are generated using labor-intensive, error-prone approaches based on documents, spreadsheets, and chart sets; a promised benefit of MBSE is that users will experience reductions in inconsistencies and errors. This work examines features of SysML that can be used to generate systems engineering products. Model elements, relationships, tables, and diagrams are identified for a large number of the typical systems engineering artifacts. A SysML system model can contain and generate most systems engineering products to a significant extent and this paper provides a guide on how to use MBSE to generate products for project life-cycle and technical reviews. The use of MBSE can reduce the schedule impact usually experienced for review preparation, as in many cases the review products can be auto-generated directly from the system model. These approaches are useful to systems engineers, project managers, review board members, and other key project stakeholders.

  18. 9: ADAPTATION OF PREGNANCY RISK ASSESSMENT MONITORING SYSTEM (PRAMS) AND PROVIDE A MODEL ON IT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharaghani, Roghieh; Shariati, Mohammad; Keramat, Afsaneh; Yunesian, Masud; Moghisi, Alireza

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims A surveillance system helps to detect epidemics and the pattern of the problems incidence in the community and it is essential part of evidence based decision making process. This study aimed to adapt of PRAMS and provide a model on it. Methods This study was performed in 7 steps as follows: Surveillance systems in pregnancy were reviewed and appropriate system was selected for Iran by nominal group technique. Two comparative studies were conducted to determine the similarities and differences between Iran and the selected community. PRAMS method and system were adapted based on the results of the comparative studies and experts opinions. The study tool was adapted. A field trial was conducted to assess adapted PRAMS feasibility based on TELOS (technical, economic, legal, operational, and schedule) model in the city of Shahriar, located in the west of Tehran, and to compare data collection methods. Then, based on the results and consultation with related executive managers, the final model of PRAMS was suggested for Iranian health system. Results Review of the surveillance systems in pregnancy, identified six models. The results of the nominal group technique showed that, the appropriate model for Iran is PRAMS. Based on the comparative studies and expert opinions, the appropriate system and method for program was as follows: the sampling frame was composed of data in thyroid screening forms and hospital records, the sampling method was systematic, data collection methods were home and phone based surveys, and participants were women within 2 to 6 months postpartum who had a live or still birth. The study tool was adapted. Thirty-seven health volunteers collected the data in this study (technical feasibility). Any home based completed questionnaire cost 2.45 and a phone cost 1.89 USD. Many indices were achieved from the study, which were worth much more than the expenses (economic feasibility). The project was consistent with legal requirements

  19. Editorial to: Baseline MDCT findings after prosthetic heart valve implantation provide important complementary information to echocardiography for follow-up purposes by Sucha et al

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peeters, F.E.C.M. [Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Kietselaer, B.L.J.H. [Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2016-04-15

    Over the last years a growing number of prosthetic heart valve (PHV) implantation procedures have been performed in sequence with the aging of the population and improving surgical techniques. Currently, echocardiography is the most important tool in the follow-up and evaluation of complications associated with the PHV (pannus, thrombus, endocarditis). However, echocardiographic examination of PHV associated disease may be hampered by poor acoustic window or scatter artefacts caused by the PHV. PHV related disease such as endocarditis is related with a poor prognosis, especially when complications such as periannular abscess formation occurs. Early treatment of PHV associated disease improves prognosis. Therefore, an unmet clinical need for early detection of complications exists. In the evaluation of PHV (dys)function, multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) has shown to be of additive value. A necessity for MDCT to be implemented in daily practice is to be able to distinguish between normal and pathological features. (orig.)

  20. Editorial to: Baseline MDCT findings after prosthetic heart valve implantation provide important complementary information to echocardiography for follow-up purposes by Sucha et al

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeters, F.E.C.M.; Kietselaer, B.L.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years a growing number of prosthetic heart valve (PHV) implantation procedures have been performed in sequence with the aging of the population and improving surgical techniques. Currently, echocardiography is the most important tool in the follow-up and evaluation of complications associated with the PHV (pannus, thrombus, endocarditis). However, echocardiographic examination of PHV associated disease may be hampered by poor acoustic window or scatter artefacts caused by the PHV. PHV related disease such as endocarditis is related with a poor prognosis, especially when complications such as periannular abscess formation occurs. Early treatment of PHV associated disease improves prognosis. Therefore, an unmet clinical need for early detection of complications exists. In the evaluation of PHV (dys)function, multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) has shown to be of additive value. A necessity for MDCT to be implemented in daily practice is to be able to distinguish between normal and pathological features. (orig.)

  1. Integrated model for providing tactical emergency medicine support (TEMS): analysis of 120 tactical situations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vainionpää, T; Peräjoki, K; Hiltunen, T; Porthan, K; Taskinen, A; Boyd, J; Kuisma, M

    2012-02-01

    Various models for organising tactical emergency medicine support (TEMS) in law enforcement operations exist. In Helsinki, TEMS is organised as an integral part of emergency medical service (EMS) and applied in hostage, siege, bomb threat and crowd control situations and in other tactical situations after police request. Our aim was to analyse TEMS operations, patient profile, and the level of on-site care provided. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of TEMS operations in Helsinki from 2004 to 2009. Data were retrieved from EMS, hospital and dispatching centre files and from TEMS reports. One hundred twenty TEMS operations were analysed. Median time from dispatching to arrival on scene was 10 min [Interquartile Range (IQR) 7-14]. Median duration of operations was 41 min (IQR 19-63). Standby was the only activity in 72 operations, four patients were dead on arrival, 16 requests were called off en route and patient examination or care was needed in 28 operations. Twenty-eight patients (records retrieved) were alive on arrival and were classified as trauma (n = 12) or medical (n = 16). Of traumas, two sustained a gunshot wound, one sustained a penetrating abdominal wound, three sustained medium severity injuries and nine sustained minor injuries. There was neither on-scene nor in-hospital mortality among patients who were alive on arrival. The level of on-site care performed was basic life support in all cases. The results showed that TEMS integrated to daily EMS services including safe zone working only was a feasible, rapid and efficient way to provide medical support to law enforcement operations. © 2011 The Authors Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica © 2011 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  2. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Makurat

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Methods: Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC, iron, vitamin A (VitA, folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12. Results: On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA. The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA, VitA (66% RDA, and folate (44% RDA, but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA and iron (20% RDA. Conclusions: Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  3. Neutronics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamond, David J.

    2018-11-11

    This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding neutronic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of applicants’ calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., power distribution, fluence, kinetics parameters and reactivity). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

  4. Thermal-Hydraulics Phenomena Important in Modeling and Simulation of Liquid-Fuel Molten Salt Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bajorek, Stephen; Diamond, David J.

    2018-11-11

    This paper discusses liquid-fuel molten salt reactors, how they will operate under normal, transient, and accident conditions, and the results of an expert elicitation to determine the corresponding thermalhydraulic phenomena important to understanding their behavior. Identifying these phenomena will enable the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop or identify modeling functionalities and tools required to carry out confirmatory analyses that examine the validity and accuracy of an applicant’s calculations and help determine the margin of safety in plant design. NRC frequently does an expert elicitation using a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) to identify and evaluate the state of knowledge of important modeling phenomena. However, few details about the design of these reactors and the sequence of events during accidents are known, so the process used was considered a preliminary PIRT. A panel met to define phenomena that would need to be modeled and considered the impact/importance of each phenomenon with respect to specific figures-of-merit (FoMs) (e.g., salt temperature, velocity, and composition). Each FoM reflected a potential impact on radionuclide release or loss of a barrier to release. The panel considered what the path forward might be with respect to being able to model the phenomenon in a simulation code. Results are explained for both thermal and fast spectrum designs.

  5. From Genes to Ecosystems in Microbiology: Modeling Approaches and the Importance of Individuality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan-Ulrich Kreft

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Models are important tools in microbial ecology. They can be used to advance understanding by helping to interpret observations and test hypotheses, and to predict the effects of ecosystem management actions or a different climate. Over the past decades, biological knowledge and ecosystem observations have advanced to the molecular and in particular gene level. However, microbial ecology models have changed less and a current challenge is to make them utilize the knowledge and observations at the genetic level. We review published models that explicitly consider genes and make predictions at the population or ecosystem level. The models can be grouped into three general approaches, i.e., metabolic flux, gene-centric and agent-based. We describe and contrast these approaches by applying them to a hypothetical ecosystem and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. An important distinguishing feature is how variation between individual cells (individuality is handled. In microbial ecosystems, individual heterogeneity is generated by a number of mechanisms including stochastic interactions of molecules (e.g., gene expression, stochastic and deterministic cell division asymmetry, small-scale environmental heterogeneity, and differential transport in a heterogeneous environment. This heterogeneity can then be amplified and transferred to other cell properties by several mechanisms, including nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, cell cycle asynchronicity and the effects of age and damage. For example, stochastic gene expression may lead to heterogeneity in nutrient uptake enzyme levels, which in turn results in heterogeneity in intracellular nutrient levels. Individuality can have important ecological consequences, including division of labor, bet hedging, aging and sub-optimality. Understanding the importance of individuality and the mechanism(s underlying it for the specific microbial system and question investigated is essential for selecting the

  6. An integrated Biophysical CGE model to provide Sustainable Development Goal insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Marko; Cicowiez, Martin; Howells, Mark; Zepeda, Eduardo

    2016-04-01

    Future projected changes in the energy system will inevitably result in changes to the level of appropriation of environmental resources, particularly land and water, and this will have wider implications for environmental sustainability, and may affect other sectors of the economy. An integrated climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) system will provide useful insights, particularly with regard to the environmental sustainability. However, it will require adequate integration with other tools to detect economic impacts and broaden the scope for policy analysis. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a well suited tool to channel impacts, as detected in a CLEW analysis, onto all sectors of the economy, and evaluate trade-offs and synergies, including those of possible policy responses. This paper will show an application of such integration in a single-country CGE model with the following key characteristics. Climate is partly exogenous (as proxied by temperature and rainfall) and partly endogenous (as proxied by emissions generated by different sectors) and has an impact on endogenous variables such as land productivity and labor productivity. Land is a factor of production used in agricultural and forestry activities which can be of various types if land use alternatives (e.g., deforestation) are to be considered. Energy is an input to the production process of all economic sectors and a consumption good for households. Because it is possible to allow for substitution among different energy sources (e.g. renewable vs non-renewable) in the generation of electricity, the production process of energy products can consider the use of natural resources such as oil and water. Water, data permitting, can be considered as an input into the production process of agricultural sectors, which is particularly relevant in case of irrigation. It can also be considered as a determinant of total factor productivity in hydro-power generation. The integration of a CLEW

  7. PReSaFe: A model of barriers and facilitators to patients providing feedback on experiences of safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brún, Aoife; Heavey, Emily; Waring, Justin; Dawson, Pamela; Scott, Jason

    2017-08-01

    The importance of involving patients in reporting on safety is increasingly recognized. Whilst studies have identified barriers to clinician incident reporting, few have explored barriers and facilitators to patient reporting of safety experiences. This paper explores patient perspectives on providing feedback on safety experiences. Patients (n=28) were invited to take part in semi-structured interviews when given a survey about their experiences of safety following hospital discharge. Transcripts were thematically analysed using NVivo10. Patients were recruited from four hospitals in the UK. Three themes were identified as barriers and facilitators to patient involvement in providing feedback on their safety experiences. The first, cognitive-cultural, found that whilst safety was a priority for most, some felt the term was not relevant to them because safety was the "default" position, and/or because safety could not be disentangled from the overall experience of care. The structural-procedural theme indicated that reporting was facilitated when patients saw the process as straightforward, but that disinclination or perceived inability to provide feedback was a barrier. Finally, learning and change illustrated that perception of the impact of feedback could facilitate or inhibit reporting. When collecting patient feedback on experiences of safety, it is important to consider what may help or hinder this process, beyond the process alone. We present a staged model of prerequisite barriers and facilitators and hypothesize that each stage needs to be achieved for patients to provide feedback on safety experiences. Implications for collecting meaningful data on patients' safety experiences are considered. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. An algorithm to provide UK global radiation for use with models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamer, P.J.C.

    1999-01-01

    Decision support systems which include crop growth models require long-term average values of global radiation to simulate future expected growth. Global radiation is rarely available as there are relatively few meteorological stations with long-term records and so interpolation between sites is difficult. Global radiation data across a good geographical spread throughout the UK were obtained and sub-divided into ‘coastal’ and ‘inland’ sites. Monthly means of global radiation (S) were extracted and analysed in relation to irradiance in the absence of atmosphere (S o ) calculated from site latitude and the time of year. The ratio S/S o was fitted to the month of the year (t) and site latitude using a nonlinear fit function in which 90% of the variance was accounted for. An algorithm is presented which provides long-term daily values of global radiation from information on latitude, time of year and whether the site is inland or close to the coast. (author)

  9. Moving From Digitalization to Digitization in Cardiovascular Care: Why Is it Important, and What Could it Mean for Patients and Providers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhubl, Steven R; Topol, Eric J

    2015-09-29

    So far, the digitization of health care is best exemplified by electronic medical records, which have been far from favorably or uniformly accepted. However, properly implemented digitization can enable better patient outcomes, improve convenience, potentially lower healthcare costs, and possibly lead to much greater physician satisfaction. Precision (also known as personalized or individualized) medicine is frequently discussed today, but, in reality, it is what physicians have attempted to do as best they could for millennia. But now we have new tools that can begin to give us a much more high-definition view of our patients; from affordable and rapid genetic testing to wearable sensors that track a wide range of important physiologic parameters continuously. Although seemingly counterintuitive, the digitization of health care can also markedly improve the physician-patient relationship, allowing more time for human interaction when care is bolstered by digital technologies that better individualize diagnostics and treatments. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Translating Institutional Templates: A Historical Account of the Consequences of Importing Policing Models into Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matías Dewey

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the translation of the French and English law enforcement models into Argentina and analyzes its consequences in terms of social order. Whereas in the former two models the judiciary and police institutions originated in large-scale processes of historical consolidation, in the latter these institutions were implanted without the antecedents present in their countries of origin. The empirical references are Argentine police institutions, particularly the police of the Buenos Aires Province, observed at two moments in which the institutional import was particularly intense: towards the end of the nineteenth and beginning of the twentieth centuries, and at the end of the twentieth century. By way of tracing these processes of police constitution and reform, we show how new models of law enforcement and policing interacted with indigenous political structures and cultural frames, as well as how this constellation produced a social order in which legality and illegality are closely interwoven. The article is an attempt to go beyond the common observations regarding how an imported model failed; instead, it dissects the effects the translation actually produced and how the translated models transform into resources that reshape the new social order. A crucial element, the article shows, is that these resources can be instrumentalized according to »idiosyncrasies«, interests, and quotas of power.

  11. General extrapolation model for an important chemical dose-rate effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

    1984-12-01

    In order to extrapolate material accelerated aging data, methodologies must be developed based on sufficient understanding of the processes leading to material degradation. One of the most important mechanisms leading to chemical dose-rate effects in polymers involves the breakdown of intermediate hydroperoxide species. A general model for this mechanism is derived based on the underlying chemical steps. The results lead to a general formalism for understanding dose rate and sequential aging effects when hydroperoxide breakdown is important. We apply the model to combined radiation/temperature aging data for a PVC material and show that this data is consistent with the model and that model extrapolations are in excellent agreement with 12-year real-time aging results from an actual nuclear plant. This model and other techniques discussed in this report can aid in the selection of appropriate accelerated aging methods and can also be used to compare and select materials for use in safety-related components. This will result in increased assurance that equipment qualification procedures are adequate

  12. The influence of socioeconomic status on women's preferences for modern contraceptive providers in Nigeria: a multilevel choice modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aremu O

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Olatunde Aremu School of Health, Sport, and Bioscience, Health Studies Field, University of East London, London, United Kingdom Background: Contraceptives are one of the most cost effective public health interventions. An understanding of the factors influencing users' preferences for contraceptives sources, in addition to their preferred methods of contraception, is an important factor in increasing contraceptive uptake. This study investigates the effect of women’s contextual and individual socioeconomic positions on their preference for contraceptive sources among current users in Nigeria. Methods: A multilevel modeling analysis was conducted using the most recent 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys data of women aged between 15 and 49 years old. The analysis included 1,834 ever married women from 888 communities across the 36 states of the federation, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. Three outcome variables, private, public, and informal provisions of contraceptive sources, were considered in the modeling. Results: There was variability in women's preferences for providers across communities. The result shows that change in variance accounted for about 31% and 19% in the odds of women's preferences for both private and public providers across communities. Younger age and being from the richest households are strongly associated with preference for both private and public providers. Living in rural areas and economically deprived neighborhoods were the community level determinants of women's preferences. Conclusion: This study documents the independent association of contextual socioeconomic characteristics and individual level socioeconomic factors with women's preferences for contraceptive commodity providers in Nigeria. Initiatives that seek to improve modern contraceptive uptake should jointly consider users’ preferences for sources of these commodities in addition to their preference for contraceptive type

  13. TFP5/TP5 peptide provides neuroprotection in the MPTP model of Parkinson′s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B K Binukumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclin-dependent kinase 5 (Cdk5 is a member of the serine-threonine kinase family of cyclin-dependent kinases. Cdk5 is critical to normal mammalian nervous system development and plays important regulatory roles in multiple cellular functions. Recent evidence indicates that Cdk5 is inappropriately activated in several neurodegenerative conditions, including Parkinson′s disease (PD. PD is a chronic neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the loss of dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra, decreased striatal dopamine levels, and consequent extrapyramidal motor dysfunction. During neurotoxicity, p35 is cleaved to form p25. Binding of p25 with Cdk5 leads deregulation of Cdk5 resulting in number of neurodegenerative pathologies. To date, strategies to specifically inhibit Cdk5 hyperactivity have not been successful without affecting normal Cdk5 activity. Here we show that inhibition of p25/Cdk5 hyperactivation through TFP5/TP5, truncated 24-aa peptide derived from the Cdk5 activator p35 rescues nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurodegeneration induced by 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP/MPP + in a mouse model of PD. TP5 peptide treatment also blocked dopamine depletion in the striatum and improved gait dysfunction after MPTP administration. The neuroprotective effect of TFP5/TP5 peptide is also associated with marked reduction in neuroinflammation and apoptosis. Here we show inhibition of Cdk5/p25-hyperactivation by TFP5/TP5 peptide, which identifies Cdk5/p25 as a potential therapeutic target to reduce neurodegeneration in PD.

  14. A model for assessing the degree of importance of ergonomics criteria to human machine interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Cesar Ribeiro de; Domech More, Jesus [Universidade Estacio de Sa do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Empresarial - MADE]. E-mail: cesararaujobr@yahoo.com.br; jesus.more@estacio.br; Silva, Aretha Felix Thomaz da [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Civil. Sistemas Computacionais Orientados a Industria do Petroleo]. E-mail: aretha@coc.ufrj.br

    2007-07-01

    This paper intends to show a model to help us to incorporate ergonomics criteria into the usability of the human computer interface (HCI). The techniques based on fuzzy set theory are appropriate tools for the treatment of subjective and vague concepts that are inherent to usability for the HCI. The application consists of analysis concepts. This approach allows the use of natural language expressions of importance in ergonomics criteria estimation. The above-mentioned model shows the degree of importance of the ergonomics criteria present in the software interface used in the medical area. In this work, as entry data, the system developer opinions are used and as a result we had the hierarchy of 18 ergonomic criteria. The ergonomic criteria are those already validated by the market, which are linked to the ErgoList checklists. The fuzzy model created will allow knowing the most important criteria to health governmental companies. Its Information Technology (IT) professionals will concentrate efforts when treating the usability of the software interface and its systems. (author)

  15. A model for assessing the degree of importance of ergonomics criteria to human machine interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Cesar Ribeiro de; Domech More, Jesus; Silva, Aretha Felix Thomaz da

    2007-01-01

    This paper intends to show a model to help us to incorporate ergonomics criteria into the usability of the human computer interface (HCI). The techniques based on fuzzy set theory are appropriate tools for the treatment of subjective and vague concepts that are inherent to usability for the HCI. The application consists of analysis concepts. This approach allows the use of natural language expressions of importance in ergonomics criteria estimation. The above-mentioned model shows the degree of importance of the ergonomics criteria present in the software interface used in the medical area. In this work, as entry data, the system developer opinions are used and as a result we had the hierarchy of 18 ergonomic criteria. The ergonomic criteria are those already validated by the market, which are linked to the ErgoList checklists. The fuzzy model created will allow knowing the most important criteria to health governmental companies. Its Information Technology (IT) professionals will concentrate efforts when treating the usability of the software interface and its systems. (author)

  16. The importance of tumor volume in the prognosis of patients with glioblastoma. Comparison of computerized volumetry and geometric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliadis, Georgios; Misailidou, Despina; Selviaridis, Panagiotis; Chatzisotiriou, Athanasios; Kalogera-Fountzila, Anna; Fragkoulidi, Anna; Fountzilas, George; Baltas, Dimos; Tselis, Nikolaos; Zamboglou, Nikolaos

    2009-01-01

    Background and purpose: the importance of tumor volume as a prognostic factor in high-grade gliomas is highly controversial and there are numerous methods estimating this parameter. In this study, a computer-based application was used in order to assess tumor volume from hard copies and a survival analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the prognostic significance of preoperative volumetric data in patients harboring glioblastomas. Patients and methods: 50 patients suffering from glioblastoma were analyzed retrospectively. Tumor volume was determined by the various geometric models as well as by an own specialized software (Volumio). Age, performance status, type of excision, and tumor location were also included in the multivariate analysis. Results: the spheroid and rectangular models overestimated tumor volume, while the ellipsoid model offered the best approximation. Volume failed to attain any statistical significance in prognosis, while age and performance status confirmed their importance in progression-free and overall survival of patients. Conclusion: geometric models provide a rough approximation of tumor volume and should not be used, as accurate determination of size is of paramount importance in order to draw safe conclusions in oncology. Although the significance of volumetry was not disclosed, further studies are definitely required. (orig.)

  17. Spdef null mice lack conjunctival goblet cells and provide a model of dry eye.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, Christina K; Menon, Balaraj B; Chen, Gang; Whitsett, Jeffrey A; Clevers, Hans; Gipson, Ilene K

    2013-07-01

    Goblet cell numbers decrease within the conjunctival epithelium in drying and cicatrizing ocular surface diseases. Factors regulating goblet cell differentiation in conjunctival epithelium are unknown. Recent data indicate that the transcription factor SAM-pointed domain epithelial-specific transcription factor (Spdef) is essential for goblet cell differentiation in tracheobronchial and gastrointestinal epithelium of mice. Using Spdef(-/-) mice, we determined that Spdef is required for conjunctival goblet cell differentiation and that Spdef(-/-) mice, which lack conjunctival goblet cells, have significantly increased corneal surface fluorescein staining and tear volume, a phenotype consistent with dry eye. Microarray analysis of conjunctival epithelium in Spdef(-/-) mice revealed down-regulation of goblet cell-specific genes (Muc5ac, Tff1, Gcnt3). Up-regulated genes included epithelial cell differentiation/keratinization genes (Sprr2h, Tgm1) and proinflammatory genes (Il1-α, Il-1β, Tnf-α), all of which are up-regulated in dry eye. Interestingly, four Wnt pathway genes were down-regulated. SPDEF expression was significantly decreased in the conjunctival epithelium of Sjögren syndrome patients with dry eye and decreased goblet cell mucin expression. These data demonstrate that Spdef is required for conjunctival goblet cell differentiation and down-regulation of SPDEF may play a role in human dry eye with goblet cell loss. Spdef(-/-) mice have an ocular surface phenotype similar to that in moderate dry eye, providing a new, more convenient model for the disease. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Investigative Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The importance of correct specification of tribological parameters in dynamical systems modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaci, S.; Ciornei, F. C.; Romanu, I. C.; Ciornei, M. C.

    2018-01-01

    When modelling the behaviour of dynamical systems, the friction phenomenon cannot be neglected. Dry and fluid friction may occur, but dry friction has more severe effects upon the behaviour of the systems, based on the fact that the introduced discontinuities are more important. In the modelling of dynamical systems, dry friction is the main cause of occurrence of the bifurcation phenomenon. These aspects become more complex if, in the case of dry friction, static and dynamic frictions are put forward. The behaviour of a simple dynamical system is studied, consisting in a prismatic body linked to the ground by a spring, placed on a conveyor belt. The theoretical model is described by a nonlinear differential equation which after numerical integration leads to the conclusion that the steady motion of the prism is an un-damped oscillatory motion. The system was qualitatively modelled using specialised software for dynamical analysis. It was impractical to obtain a steady uniform translational motion of a rigid, therefore the conveyor belt was replaced by a metallic disc in uniform rotation motion. The attempts to compare the CAD model to the theoretical model were unsuccessful because the efforts of selecting the tribological parameters directed to the conclusion that the motion of the prism is a damped oscillation. To decide which of the methods depicts reality, a test-rig was assembled and it indicated a sustained oscillation. The conclusion is that the model employed by the dynamical analysis software cannot describe the actual model and a more complex model is required in the description of the friction phenomenon.

  19. The model of flood control using servqual method and importance performance analysis in Surakarta City – Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titi Purwantini, V.; Sutanto, Yusuf

    2018-05-01

    This research is to create a model of flood control in the city of Surakarta using Servqual method and Importance Performance Analysis. Service quality is generally defined as the overall assessment of a service by the customersor the extent to which a service meets customer’s needs or expectations. The purpose of this study is to find the first model of flood control that is appropriate to the condition of the community. Surakarta This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood. The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood.The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is Importance Performance Analysis. Samples were people living in flooded areas in the city of Surakarta. Result this research is Satisfaction = Responsiveness+ Realibility + Assurance + Empathy+ Tangible (Servqual Model) and Importance Performance Analysis is From Cartesian diagram

  20. Importance of facial physical attractiveness of audiovisual models in descriptions and preferences of children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Cristina; Conde, Elena; Torres, Esteban

    2005-08-01

    We performed a cross-sectional study with three age groups (8, 14, and 17 years) to evaluate developmental differences in stereotyped beliefs about physical attractiveness and the value of this as perceived by the participants. Given the current importance of television in the development of social knowledge, television models were used. The children and adolescents were asked to evaluate, using bipolar open scales, the physical attractiveness, likeableness, generosity, intelligence, fun, and altruism of 12 television models of both sexes, previously selected by judges, as well as the desire to resemble or feel close to the models. Analysis showed developmental differences across age groups both in the concept of physical attractiveness and in stereotyped beliefs about this. As in other areas of social knowledge, the younger children's responses were bipolar, global, and much more stereotyped, while the adolescents introduced subtle distinctions and elaborated their responses. Nevertheless, physical attractiveness appeared a desirable characteristic for all age groups.

  1. Capturing optically important constituents and properties in a marine biogeochemical and ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Hickman, A. E.; Jahn, O.; Gregg, W. W.; Mouw, C. B.; Follows, M. J.

    2015-07-01

    We present a numerical model of the ocean that couples a three-stream radiative transfer component with a marine biogeochemical-ecosystem component in a dynamic three-dimensional physical framework. The radiative transfer component resolves the penetration of spectral irradiance as it is absorbed and scattered within the water column. We explicitly include the effect of several optically important water constituents (different phytoplankton functional types; detrital particles; and coloured dissolved organic matter, CDOM). The model is evaluated against in situ-observed and satellite-derived products. In particular we compare to concurrently measured biogeochemical, ecosystem, and optical data along a meridional transect of the Atlantic Ocean. The simulation captures the patterns and magnitudes of these data, and estimates surface upwelling irradiance analogous to that observed by ocean colour satellite instruments. We find that incorporating the different optically important constituents explicitly and including spectral irradiance was crucial to capture the variability in the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum. We conduct a series of sensitivity experiments to demonstrate, globally, the relative importance of each of the water constituents, as well as the crucial feedbacks between the light field, the relative fitness of phytoplankton types, and the biogeochemistry of the ocean. CDOM has proportionally more importance at attenuating light at short wavelengths and in more productive waters, phytoplankton absorption is relatively more important at the subsurface Chl a maximum, and water molecules have the greatest contribution when concentrations of other constituents are low, such as in the oligotrophic gyres. Scattering had less effect on attenuation, but since it is important for the amount and type of upwelling irradiance, it is crucial for setting sea surface reflectance. Strikingly, sensitivity experiments in which absorption by any of the

  2. Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

  3. A new interpretation and validation of variance based importance measures for models with correlated inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Wenrui; Lu, Zhenzhou; Li, Luyi

    2013-05-01

    In order to explore the contributions by correlated input variables to the variance of the output, a novel interpretation framework of importance measure indices is proposed for a model with correlated inputs, which includes the indices of the total correlated contribution and the total uncorrelated contribution. The proposed indices accurately describe the connotations of the contributions by the correlated input to the variance of output, and they can be viewed as the complement and correction of the interpretation about the contributions by the correlated inputs presented in "Estimation of global sensitivity indices for models with dependent variables, Computer Physics Communications, 183 (2012) 937-946". Both of them contain the independent contribution by an individual input. Taking the general form of quadratic polynomial as an illustration, the total correlated contribution and the independent contribution by an individual input are derived analytically, from which the components and their origins of both contributions of correlated input can be clarified without any ambiguity. In the special case that no square term is included in the quadratic polynomial model, the total correlated contribution by the input can be further decomposed into the variance contribution related to the correlation of the input with other inputs and the independent contribution by the input itself, and the total uncorrelated contribution can be further decomposed into the independent part by interaction between the input and others and the independent part by the input itself. Numerical examples are employed and their results demonstrate that the derived analytical expressions of the variance-based importance measure are correct, and the clarification of the correlated input contribution to model output by the analytical derivation is very important for expanding the theory and solutions of uncorrelated input to those of the correlated one.

  4. The EZ diffusion model provides a powerful test of simple empirical effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Donkin, Chris; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    Over the last four decades, sequential accumulation models for choice response times have spread through cognitive psychology like wildfire. The most popular style of accumulator model is the diffusion model (Ratcliff Psychological Review, 85, 59-108, 1978), which has been shown to account for data from a wide range of paradigms, including perceptual discrimination, letter identification, lexical decision, recognition memory, and signal detection. Since its original inception, the model has become increasingly complex in order to account for subtle, but reliable, data patterns. The additional complexity of the diffusion model renders it a tool that is only for experts. In response, Wagenmakers et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14, 3-22, 2007) proposed that researchers could use a more basic version of the diffusion model, the EZ diffusion. Here, we simulate experimental effects on data generated from the full diffusion model and compare the power of the full diffusion model and EZ diffusion to detect those effects. We show that the EZ diffusion model, by virtue of its relative simplicity, will be sometimes better able to detect experimental effects than the data-generating full diffusion model.

  5. Economic model of a cloud provider operating in a federated cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Goiri Presa, Íñigo; Guitart Fernández, Jordi; Torres Viñals, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Resource provisioning in Cloud providers is a challenge because of the high variability of load over time. On the one hand, the providers can serve most of the requests owning only a restricted amount of resources, but this forces to reject customers during peak hours. On the other hand, valley hours incur in under-utilization of the resources, which forces the providers to increase their prices to be profitable. Federation overcomes these limitations and allows pro...

  6. Activity-based funding model provides foundation for province-wide best practices in renal care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Adeera; Lo, Clifford; Noel, Kevin; Djurdjev, Ogjnenka; Amano, Erlyn C

    2013-01-01

    British Columbia has a unique funding model for renal care in Canada. Patient care is delivered through six health authorities, while funding is administered by the Provincial Renal Agency using an activity-based funding model. The model allocates funding based on a schedule of costs for every element of renal care, excluding physician fees. Accountability, transparency of allocation and tracking of outcomes are key features that ensure successful implementation. The model supports province-wide best practices and equitable care and fosters innovation. Since its introduction, the outpatient renal services budget has grown less than the population, while maintaining or improving clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Longwoods Publishing.

  7. A model of sustainable development of scientific research health institutions, providing high-tech medical care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Yu. Bedoreva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of sustainability is relevant for all types of businesses and organizations. Long-term development has always been and remains one of the most difficult tasks faced by organizations. The implementation the provisions of international standards ISO series 9000 has proven to be effective. The ISO standards are concentrated on the global experience for sustainable success of organizations. The standards incorporated all the rational that has been accumulated in this field of knowledge and practice. These standards not only eliminate technical barriers in collaboration and have established standardized approaches, but also serve as a valuable source of international experience and ready management solutions. They became a practical guide for the creation of management systems for sustainable development in organizations of different spheres of activity.Problem and purpose. The article presents the author’s approach to the problem of sustainable development health of the organization. The purpose of this article is to examine the approaches to management for sustainable success of organizations and to describe a model of sustainable development applied in research healthcare institutions providing high-tech medical care.Methodology. The study used general scientific methods of empirical and theoretical knowledge, general logical methods and techniques and methods of system analysis, comparison, analogy, generalization, the materials research for the development of medical organizations.The main results of our work are to first develop the technique of complex estimation of activity of the scientific-research institutions of health and deploy key elements of the management system that allows the level of maturity of the management system of the institution to be set in order to identify its strengths and weaknesses, and to identify areas for improvements and innovation, and to set priorities for determining the sequence of action when

  8. Importance of modeling beam-column joints for seismic safety of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Akanshu; Reddy, G.R.; Vaze, K.K.; Eligehausen, R.; Hofmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    Almost all structures, except the containment building, in a NPP can be classified as reinforced concrete (RC) framed structures. In case of such structures subjected to seismic loads, beam-column joints are recognized as the critical and vulnerable zone. During an earthquake, the global behavior of the structure is highly governed by the behavior of the joints. If the joints behave in a ductile manner, the global behavior generally will be ductile, whereas if the joints behave in a brittle fashion then the structure will display a brittle behavior. The joints of old and non-seismically detailed structures are more vulnerable and behave poorly under the earthquakes compared to the joints of new and seismically detailed structures. Modeling of these joint regions is very important for correct assessment of the seismic performance of the structures. In this paper, it is shown with the help of a recently developed joint model that not modeling the inelastic behavior of the joints can lead to significantly misleading and unsafe results in terms of the performance assessment of the structures under seismic loads. Comparison of analytical and experimental results is shown for two structures, tested under lateral monotonic seismic pushover loads. It is displayed that the model can predict the inelastic seismic response of structures considering joint distortion with high accuracy by little extra effort in modeling. (author)

  9. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  10. Why Knowledge Modeling is Important for Business and for a Danish Terminology and Knowledge Bank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdman Thomsen, Hanne; Madsen, Bodil Nistrup

    2011-01-01

    Businesses and organizations, including public authorities, have a growing need for organizing and handling large amounts of data. In order to manage complex knowledge, knowledge must be modeled and structured. One very powerful method used for structuring knowledge is the use of ontologies. Busi...... the foundation for a national terminology and knowledge bank. Furthermore, I will briefly introduce our plans for teaching within the field of knowledge modeling at Copenhagen Business School, CBS......., and possibly other languages, so information must be freely retrievable and communicable in several languages. In this paper I will give examples of why knowledge modeling is important for businesses, and why knowledge modeling is a central part of the DanTermBank project, the aim of which is to lay......Businesses and organizations, including public authorities, have a growing need for organizing and handling large amounts of data. In order to manage complex knowledge, knowledge must be modeled and structured. One very powerful method used for structuring knowledge is the use of ontologies...

  11. Implementation of Equilibrium-Price Model to the Estimation of Import Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadulla Hasanli

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the the import inflationary processes as a result of feedbacks of mutual economic relations of World countries. It is used Equilibrium Price Model to estimate the import inflationary processes in CIS countries. The study investigates the further results regarding the import inflationary processes in the CIS countries on the scenario of increasing the Value Added norm in Russia. As well as by standpoint of economic growth and price stability, the recent revaluation of US dollar in the World and its impacts to total output of other countries have been investigated in details. In other words due to revaluation of the US dollar, if the final product decreases in USA, this decreasing impact how to be transmitted to the world countries have been estimated by the Input-Output Table in this study as well. The work is fulfilled on the Input-Output data for the year 2011. This study assumes theoretical and practical importance in defining the monetary policy.

  12. Supportive Accountability: A model for providing human support for internet and ehealth interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohr, D.C.; Cuijpers, P.; Lehman, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    The effectiveness of and adherence to eHealth interventions is enhanced by human support. However, human support has largely not been manualized and has usually not been guided by clear models. The objective of this paper is to develop a clear theoretical model, based on relevant empirical

  13. Modelling Southern Africa Air Quality and Atmosphere: Importance and Interplay of Natural and Anthropogenic Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, R. M.; Naidoo, M.; Dedekind, Z.; Sibiya, B.; Piketh, S.; Engelbrecht, C. J.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2017-12-01

    Many parts of the southern hemisphere are linked in part due to the strong impact that emissions from natural sources, such as large biomass burning events and marine sources, as well as growing anthropogenic emission sources. Most of southern Africa has an arid to semi-arid climate that is strongly impacted by biomass burning, biogenic and dust emissions. In addition, there are areas of growing industrialization and urbanization that contributes to poor air quality. This air pollution can impact not only human health, but also agriculture, ecosystems, and the climate. This presentation will highlight on-going research to simulate the southern Africa atmosphere and impacts, with a focus on the interplay and relative importance of natural and anthropogenic emissions. The presentation will discuss the simulated sensitivity of the southern African climate to aerosol particles to highlight the importance of natural sources. These historical simulations (1979-2012) were performed with CCAM and are towards the development of the first Africa-led earth systems model. The analysis focused on the simulated sensitivity of the climate and clouds off the southwestern coast of Africa to aerosol particles. The interplay between natural and anthropogenic sources on air pollution will be highlighted using the Waterberg region of South Africa as a case study. CAMx was run at 2km resolution for 2013 using local emission inventories and meteorological output from CCAM to simulate the air quality of the region. These simulations estimate that, on average in the summer, up to 20% of ozone in and around a power plant plume is attributable to biogenic sources of VOCs, with ozone peaks of up to 120ppb; highlighting the importance of understanding the mix of pollutants in this area. In addition to presenting results from this study, the challenges in modelling will be highlighted. These challenges include very few or no measurements that are important to understand, and then accurately

  14. Understanding the relationship between Kano model's customer satisfaction scores and self-stated requirements importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O C; Hashim, Nor Laily

    2016-01-01

    Customer satisfaction is the result of product quality and viability. The place of the perceived satisfaction of users/customers for a software product cannot be neglected especially in today competitive market environment as it drives the loyalty of customers and promotes high profitability and return on investment. Therefore understanding the importance of requirements as it is associated with the satisfaction of users/customers when their requirements are met is worth the pain considering. It is necessary to know the relationship between customer satisfactions when their requirements are met (or their dissatisfaction when their requirements are unmet) and the importance of such requirement. So many works have been carried out on customer satisfaction in connection with the importance of requirements but the relationship between customer satisfaction scores (coefficients) of the Kano model and users/customers self-stated requirements importance have not been sufficiently explored. In this study, an attempt is made to unravel the underlying relationship existing between Kano model's customer satisfaction indexes and users/customers self reported requirements importance. The results of the study indicate some interesting associations between these considered variables. These bivariate associations reveal that customer satisfaction index (SI), and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) and customer dissatisfaction index (DI) and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) are highly correlated (r = 96 %) and thus ASC can be used in place of either SI or DI in representing customer satisfaction scores. Also, these Kano model's customer satisfaction variables (SI, DI, and ASC) are each associated with self-stated requirements importance (IMP). Further analysis indicates that the value customers or users place on requirements that are met or on features that are incorporated into a product influences the level of satisfaction such customers derive from the product. The

  15. A structural and stochastic optimal model for projections of LNG imports and exports in Asia-Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Kompas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asia-Pacific region, the largest and fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG market in the world, has been undergoing radical changes over the past few years. These changes include considerable additional supplies from North America and Australia, and a recent LNG price slump resulting from an oil-linked pricing mechanism and demand uncertainties. This paper develops an Asia-Pacific Gas Model (APGM, based on a structural, stochastic and optimising framework, providing a valuable tool for the projection of LNG trade in the Asia-Pacific region. With existing social-economic conditions, the model projects that Asia-Pacific LNG imports are expected to increase by 49.1 percent in 2020 and 95.7 percent in 2030, compared to 2013. Total LNG trade value is estimated to increase to US$127.2 billion in 2020 and US$199.0 billion in 2030. Future LNG trade expansion is mainly driven by emerging and large importers (i.e., China and India, and serviced, most importantly, by new supplies from Australia and the USA. The model's projected results are sensitive to changes in expected oil prices, pricing mechanisms, economic growth and energy policies, as well as unexpected geopolitical-economic events.

  16. A Dynamical Model of Pitch Memory Provides an Improved Basis for Implied Harmony Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Chul

    2017-01-01

    Tonal melody can imply vertical harmony through a sequence of tones. Current methods for automatic chord estimation commonly use chroma-based features extracted from audio signals. However, the implied harmony of unaccompanied melodies can be difficult to estimate on the basis of chroma content in the presence of frequent nonchord tones. Here we present a novel approach to automatic chord estimation based on the human perception of pitch sequences. We use cohesion and inhibition between pitches in auditory short-term memory to differentiate chord tones and nonchord tones in tonal melodies. We model short-term pitch memory as a gradient frequency neural network, which is a biologically realistic model of auditory neural processing. The model is a dynamical system consisting of a network of tonotopically tuned nonlinear oscillators driven by audio signals. The oscillators interact with each other through nonlinear resonance and lateral inhibition, and the pattern of oscillatory traces emerging from the interactions is taken as a measure of pitch salience. We test the model with a collection of unaccompanied tonal melodies to evaluate it as a feature extractor for chord estimation. We show that chord tones are selectively enhanced in the response of the model, thereby increasing the accuracy of implied harmony estimation. We also find that, like other existing features for chord estimation, the performance of the model can be improved by using segmented input signals. We discuss possible ways to expand the present model into a full chord estimation system within the dynamical systems framework. PMID:28522983

  17. A Dynamical Model of Pitch Memory Provides an Improved Basis for Implied Harmony Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Chul

    2017-01-01

    Tonal melody can imply vertical harmony through a sequence of tones. Current methods for automatic chord estimation commonly use chroma-based features extracted from audio signals. However, the implied harmony of unaccompanied melodies can be difficult to estimate on the basis of chroma content in the presence of frequent nonchord tones. Here we present a novel approach to automatic chord estimation based on the human perception of pitch sequences. We use cohesion and inhibition between pitches in auditory short-term memory to differentiate chord tones and nonchord tones in tonal melodies. We model short-term pitch memory as a gradient frequency neural network, which is a biologically realistic model of auditory neural processing. The model is a dynamical system consisting of a network of tonotopically tuned nonlinear oscillators driven by audio signals. The oscillators interact with each other through nonlinear resonance and lateral inhibition, and the pattern of oscillatory traces emerging from the interactions is taken as a measure of pitch salience. We test the model with a collection of unaccompanied tonal melodies to evaluate it as a feature extractor for chord estimation. We show that chord tones are selectively enhanced in the response of the model, thereby increasing the accuracy of implied harmony estimation. We also find that, like other existing features for chord estimation, the performance of the model can be improved by using segmented input signals. We discuss possible ways to expand the present model into a full chord estimation system within the dynamical systems framework.

  18. A Dynamical Model of Pitch Memory Provides an Improved Basis for Implied Harmony Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Chul Kim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Tonal melody can imply vertical harmony through a sequence of tones. Current methods for automatic chord estimation commonly use chroma-based features extracted from audio signals. However, the implied harmony of unaccompanied melodies can be difficult to estimate on the basis of chroma content in the presence of frequent nonchord tones. Here we present a novel approach to automatic chord estimation based on the human perception of pitch sequences. We use cohesion and inhibition between pitches in auditory short-term memory to differentiate chord tones and nonchord tones in tonal melodies. We model short-term pitch memory as a gradient frequency neural network, which is a biologically realistic model of auditory neural processing. The model is a dynamical system consisting of a network of tonotopically tuned nonlinear oscillators driven by audio signals. The oscillators interact with each other through nonlinear resonance and lateral inhibition, and the pattern of oscillatory traces emerging from the interactions is taken as a measure of pitch salience. We test the model with a collection of unaccompanied tonal melodies to evaluate it as a feature extractor for chord estimation. We show that chord tones are selectively enhanced in the response of the model, thereby increasing the accuracy of implied harmony estimation. We also find that, like other existing features for chord estimation, the performance of the model can be improved by using segmented input signals. We discuss possible ways to expand the present model into a full chord estimation system within the dynamical systems framework.

  19. MODELING THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS: ASSESSMENT OF THE MACEDONIAN COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goce PETRESKI

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available So far Macedonia has undergone an unsuccessful attempt to transition,distinguished by low growth rates, high unemployment, extensive poverty,balance of payments unfavorable position, technological lag etc. The externalsector, as a core element to growth perspectives of a small open economy iscritically dependant upon the export competitiveness. Consequently, thispaper will address some critical points of the Macedonian economy,particularly the vulnerability of the external sector alongside with the priceand trade liberalization. The set of analyses is to be carried out to explore theforeign trade structure, current account developments, as well as the majoraspects of qualitative competitiveness. In addition, we have examined theimpact of macroeconomic variables on exports and imports within theselected timeframe. We have therefore applied a comprehensive approach ofdynamic modeling based upon a vector - autoregression model determinedto control for endogeneity and set to estimate the long - run equilibriumrelations, as well as the short-run dynamics of the key variables.

  20. The Debye-Hückel theory and its importance in modeling electrolyte solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Maribo-Mogensen, Bjørn; Thomsen, Kaj

    2018-01-01

    A colleague at the Technical University of Denmark has often stated: “Life is too short for electrolytes”. Another well-known scientist in the field of molecular simulation has recently said during an international Thermodynamics conference: “All my life I have tried to keep myself away from water...... and electrolytes”. Sadly, what these statements correctly imply is that there are far too many unclear questions and concepts in electrolyte thermodynamics, and associated difficulties in modeling electrolyte solutions. In this work, we attempt to shed some light on some important concepts and misconceptions...... are omitted. We first discuss the peculiarities of electrolyte thermodynamics and associated modeling and continue with the derivation of the Debye-Hückel theory. The assumptions and limits of application of Debye-Hückel are discussed in particular. Next, the Born term and its significance and implications...

  1. The Importance of Business Model Factors for Cloud Computing Adoption: Role of Previous Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogataj Habjan Kristina

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Bringing several opportunities for more effective and efficient IT governance and service exploitation, cloud computing is expected to impact the European and global economies significantly. Market data show that despite many advantages and promised benefits the adoption of cloud computing is not as fast and widespread as foreseen. This situation shows the need for further exploration of the potentials of cloud computing and its implementation on the market. The purpose of this research was to identify individual business model factors with the highest impact on cloud computing adoption. In addition, the aim was to identify the differences in opinion regarding the importance of business model factors on cloud computing adoption according to companies’ previous experiences with cloud computing services.

  2. 75 FR 2562 - Publication of Model Notices for Health Care Continuation Coverage Provided Pursuant to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-15

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employee Benefits Security Administration Publication of Model Notices for... AGENCY: Employee Benefits Security Administration, Department of Labor. ACTION: Notice of the..., contact the Department's Employee Benefits Security Administration's Benefits Advisors at 1-866-444-3272...

  3. An Analytical Model That Provides Insights into Various C2 Issues

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Taylor, James G; Neta, Beny; Shugart, Peter A

    2004-01-01

    .... A Lanchester-type model of force-on-force combat that reflects C2 architecture at the platform level is developed through a detailed analysis of the target-engagement cycle for a single typical firer...

  4. An open-loop, physiologic model-based decision support system can provide appropriate ventilator settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karbing, Dan Stieper; Spadaro, Savino; Dey, Nilanjan

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the physiologic effects of applying advice on mechanical ventilation by an open-loop, physiologic model-based clinical decision support system. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study. SETTING: University and Regional Hospitals' ICUs. PATIENTS: Varied adult ICU population...

  5. Modelling explicit tides in the Indonesian seas: An important process for surface sea water properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Dwiyoga; Koch-Larrouy, Ariane; Gaspar, Philippe; Lyard, Florent; Reffray, Guillaume; Tranchant, Benoit

    2017-06-16

    Very intense internal tides take place in Indonesian seas. They dissipate and affect the vertical distribution of temperature and currents, which in turn influence the survival rates and transports of most planktonic organisms at the base of the whole marine ecosystem. This study uses the INDESO physical model to characterize the internal tides spatio-temporal patterns in the Indonesian Seas. The model reproduced internal tide dissipation in agreement with previous fine structure and microstructure observed in-situ in the sites of generation. The model also produced similar water mass transformation as the previous parameterization of Koch-Larrouy et al. (2007), and show good agreement with observations. The resulting cooling at the surface is 0.3°C, with maxima of 0.8°C at the location of internal tides energy, with stronger cooling in austral winter. The cycle of spring tides and neap tides modulates this impact by 0.1°C to 0.3°C. These results suggest that mixing due to internal tides might also upwell nutrients at the surface at a frequency similar to the tidal frequencies. Implications for biogeochemical modelling are important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Bayesian assessment of moving group membership: importance of models and prior knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jinhee; Song, Inseok

    2018-04-01

    Young nearby moving groups are important and useful in many fields of astronomy such as studying exoplanets, low-mass stars, and the stellar evolution of the early planetary systems over tens of millions of years, which has led to intensive searches for their members. Identification of members depends on the used models sensitively; therefore, careful examination of the models is required. In this study, we investigate the effects of the models used in moving group membership calculations based on a Bayesian framework (e.g. BANYAN II) focusing on the beta-Pictoris moving group (BPMG). Three improvements for building models are suggested: (1) updating a list of accepted members by re-assessing memberships in terms of position, motion, and age, (2) investigating member distribution functions in XYZ, and (3) exploring field star distribution functions in XYZ and UVW. The effect of each change is investigated, and we suggest using all of these improvements simultaneously in future membership probability calculations. Using this improved MG membership calculation and the careful examination of the age, 57 bona fide members of BPMG are confirmed including 12 new members. We additionally suggest 17 highly probable members.

  7. Centromeric DNA characterization in the model grass Brachypodium distachyon provides insights on the evolution of the genus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yinjia; Zuo, Sheng; Zhang, Zhiliang; Li, Zhanjie; Han, Jinlei; Chu, Zhaoqing; Hasterok, Robert; Wang, Kai

    2018-03-01

    Brachypodium distachyon is a well-established model monocot plant, and its small and compact genome has been used as an accurate reference for the much larger and often polyploid genomes of cereals such as Avena sativa (oats), Hordeum vulgare (barley) and Triticum aestivum (wheat). Centromeres are indispensable functional units of chromosomes and they play a core role in genome polyploidization events during evolution. As the Brachypodium genus contains about 20 species that differ significantly in terms of their basic chromosome numbers, genome size, ploidy levels and life strategies, studying their centromeres may provide important insight into the structure and evolution of the genome in this interesting and important genus. In this study, we isolated the centromeric DNA of the B. distachyon reference line Bd21 and characterized its composition via the chromatin immunoprecipitation of the nucleosomes that contain the centromere-specific histone CENH3. We revealed that the centromeres of Bd21 have the features of typical multicellular eukaryotic centromeres. Strikingly, these centromeres contain relatively few centromeric satellite DNAs; in particular, the centromere of chromosome 5 (Bd5) consists of only ~40 kb. Moreover, the centromeric retrotransposons in B. distachyon (CRBds) are evolutionarily young. These transposable elements are located both within and adjacent to the CENH3 binding domains, and have similar compositions. Moreover, based on the presence of CRBds in the centromeres, the species in this study can be grouped into two distinct lineages. This may provide new evidence regarding the phylogenetic relationships within the Brachypodium genus. © 2018 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Li

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs. Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of an LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e., sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive or type II errors (i.e., insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive. Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistency with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

  9. Evaluating the performance of business service providers : developing a model from multiple case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valk, van der W.; Weele, van A.J.; Kibbeling, M.I.; Baraldi, E.; Hadjikhani, A.; Waluszewski, A.

    2008-01-01

    Services have become an increasingly important part of many organizations' expenditures. At the same time, organizational buyers view the purchase of business services to be highly complex. The specific characteristics of services influence the purchasing process in the sense that certain steps in

  10. Oxygen distribution in tumors: A qualitative analysis and modeling study providing a novel Monte Carlo approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagerlöf, Jakob H.; Kindblom, Jon; Bernhardt, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To construct a Monte Carlo (MC)-based simulation model for analyzing the dependence of tumor oxygen distribution on different variables related to tumor vasculature [blood velocity, vessel-to-vessel proximity (vessel proximity), and inflowing oxygen partial pressure (pO 2 )]. Methods: A voxel-based tissue model containing parallel capillaries with square cross-sections (sides of 10 μm) was constructed. Green's function was used for diffusion calculations and Michaelis-Menten's kinetics to manage oxygen consumption. The model was tuned to approximately reproduce the oxygenational status of a renal carcinoma; the depth oxygenation curves (DOC) were fitted with an analytical expression to facilitate rapid MC simulations of tumor oxygen distribution. DOCs were simulated with three variables at three settings each (blood velocity, vessel proximity, and inflowing pO 2 ), which resulted in 27 combinations of conditions. To create a model that simulated variable oxygen distributions, the oxygen tension at a specific point was randomly sampled with trilinear interpolation in the dataset from the first simulation. Six correlations between blood velocity, vessel proximity, and inflowing pO 2 were hypothesized. Variable models with correlated parameters were compared to each other and to a nonvariable, DOC-based model to evaluate the differences in simulated oxygen distributions and tumor radiosensitivities for different tumor sizes. Results: For tumors with radii ranging from 5 to 30 mm, the nonvariable DOC model tended to generate normal or log-normal oxygen distributions, with a cut-off at zero. The pO 2 distributions simulated with the six-variable DOC models were quite different from the distributions generated with the nonvariable DOC model; in the former case the variable models simulated oxygen distributions that were more similar to in vivo results found in the literature. For larger tumors, the oxygen distributions became truncated in the lower

  11. Application service provider (ASP) financial models for off-site PACS archiving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratib, Osman M.; Liu, Brent J.; McCoy, J. Michael; Enzmann, Dieter R.

    2003-05-01

    For the replacement of its legacy Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (approx. annual workload of 300,000 procedures), UCLA Medical Center has evaluated and adopted an off-site data-warehousing solution based on an ASP financial with a one-time single payment per study archived. Different financial models for long-term data archive services were compared to the traditional capital/operational costs of on-site digital archives. Total cost of ownership (TCO), including direct and indirect expenses and savings, were compared for each model. Financial parameters were considered: logistic/operational advantages and disadvantages of ASP models versus traditional archiving systems. Our initial analysis demonstrated that the traditional linear ASP business model for data storage was unsuitable for large institutions. The overall cost markedly exceeds the TCO of an in-house archive infrastructure (when support and maintenance costs are included.) We demonstrated, however, that non-linear ASP pricing models can be cost-effective alternatives for large-scale data storage, particularly if they are based on a scalable off-site data-warehousing service and the prices are adapted to the specific size of a given institution. The added value of ASP is that it does not require iterative data migrations from legacy media to new storage media at regular intervals.

  12. The proposed 'concordance-statistic for benefit' provided a useful metric when modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Klaveren, David; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Serruys, Patrick W; Kent, David M

    2018-02-01

    Clinical prediction models that support treatment decisions are usually evaluated for their ability to predict the risk of an outcome rather than treatment benefit-the difference between outcome risk with vs. without therapy. We aimed to define performance metrics for a model's ability to predict treatment benefit. We analyzed data of the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial and of three recombinant tissue plasminogen activator trials. We assessed alternative prediction models with a conventional risk concordance-statistic (c-statistic) and a novel c-statistic for benefit. We defined observed treatment benefit by the outcomes in pairs of patients matched on predicted benefit but discordant for treatment assignment. The 'c-for-benefit' represents the probability that from two randomly chosen matched patient pairs with unequal observed benefit, the pair with greater observed benefit also has a higher predicted benefit. Compared to a model without treatment interactions, the SYNTAX score II had improved ability to discriminate treatment benefit (c-for-benefit 0.590 vs. 0.552), despite having similar risk discrimination (c-statistic 0.725 vs. 0.719). However, for the simplified stroke-thrombolytic predictive instrument (TPI) vs. the original stroke-TPI, the c-for-benefit (0.584 vs. 0.578) was similar. The proposed methodology has the potential to measure a model's ability to predict treatment benefit not captured with conventional performance metrics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Differentiated Human SH-SY5Y Cells Provide a Reductionist Model of Herpes Simplex Virus 1 Neurotropism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipley, Mackenzie M; Mangold, Colleen A; Kuny, Chad V; Szpara, Moriah L

    2017-12-01

    Neuron-virus interactions that occur during herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection are not fully understood. Neurons are the site of lifelong latency and are a crucial target for long-term suppressive therapy or viral clearance. A reproducible neuronal model of human origin would facilitate studies of HSV and other neurotropic viruses. Current neuronal models in the herpesvirus field vary widely and have caveats, including incomplete differentiation, nonhuman origins, or the use of dividing cells that have neuropotential but lack neuronal morphology. In this study, we used a robust approach to differentiate human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells over 2.5 weeks, producing a uniform population of mature human neuronal cells. We demonstrate that terminally differentiated SH-SY5Y cells have neuronal morphology and express proteins with subcellular localization indicative of mature neurons. These neuronal cells are able to support a productive HSV-1 infection, with kinetics and overall titers similar to those seen in undifferentiated SH-SY5Y cells and the related SK-N-SH cell line. However, terminally differentiated, neuronal SH-SY5Y cells release significantly less extracellular HSV-1 by 24 h postinfection (hpi), suggesting a unique neuronal response to viral infection. With this model, we are able to distinguish differences in neuronal spread between two strains of HSV-1. We also show expression of the antiviral protein cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells, which is the first demonstration of the presence of this protein in nonepithelial cells. These data provide a model for studying neuron-virus interactions at the single-cell level as well as via bulk biochemistry and will be advantageous for the study of neurotropic viruses in vitro IMPORTANCE Herpes simplex virus (HSV) affects millions of people worldwide, causing painful oral and genital lesions, in addition to a multitude of more severe symptoms such as eye disease, neonatal infection, and, in rare

  14. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  15. An integrated decision making model for the selection of sustainable forward and reverse logistic providers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Agarwal, Vernika; Darbari, Jyoti Dhingra

    2017-01-01

    Due to rising concerns for environmental sustainability, the Indian electronic industry faces immense pressure to incorporate effective sustainable practices into the supply chain (SC) planning. Consequently, manufacturing enterprises (ME) are exploring the option of re-examining their SC...... strategies and taking a formalized approach towards a sustainable partnership with logistics providers. To begin with, it is imperative to associate with sustainable forward and reverse logistics providers to manage effectively the upward and downstream flows simultaneously. In this context, this paper...... improve the sustainable performance value of the SC network and secure reasonable profits. The managerial implications drawn from the result analysis provide a sustainable framework to the ME for enhancing its corporate image....

  16. Integrating Modeling and Monitoring to Provide Long-Term Control of Contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogwell, Th.

    2009-01-01

    An introduction is presented of the types of problems that exist for long-term control of radionuclides at DOE sites. A breakdown of the distributions at specific sites is given, together with the associated difficulties. A paradigm for remediation showing the integration of monitoring with modeling is presented. It is based on a feedback system that allows for the monitoring to act as principal sensors in a control system. Currently the establishment of a very prescriptive monitoring program fails to have a mechanism for improving models and improving control of the contaminants. The resulting system can be optimized to improve performance. Optimizing monitoring automatically entails linking the monitoring with modeling. If monitoring designs were required to be more efficient, thus requiring optimization, then the monitoring automatically becomes linked to modeling. Records of decision could be written to accommodate revisions in monitoring as better modeling evolves. The technical pieces of the required paradigm are already available; they just need to be implemented and applied to solve the long-term control of the contaminants. An integration of the various parts of the system is presented. Each part is described, and examples are given. References are given to other projects which bring together similar elements in systems for the control of contaminants. Trends are given for the development of the technical features of a robust system. Examples of monitoring methods for specific sites are given. The examples are used to illustrate how such a system would work. Examples of technology needs are presented. Finally, other examples of integrated modeling-monitoring approaches are presented. (authors)

  17. A conceptual model: Redesigning how we provide palliative care for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Jennifer; Crawford, Gregory; Brand, Caroline; Gold, Michelle; Miller, Belinda; Hudson, Peter; Smallwood, Natasha; Lau, Rosalind; Sundararajan, Vijaya

    2017-05-31

    Despite significant needs, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) make limited use of palliative care, in part because the current models of palliative care do not address their key concerns. Our aim was to develop a tailored model of palliative care for patients with COPD and their family caregivers. Based on information gathered within a program of studies (qualitative research exploring experiences, a cohort study examining service use), an expert advisory committee evaluated and integrated data, developed responses, formulated principles to inform care, and made recommendations for practice. The informing studies were conducted in two Australian states: Victoria and South Australia. A series of principles underpinning the model were developed, including that it must be: (1) focused on patient and caregiver; (2) equitable, enabling access to components of palliative care for a group with significant needs; (3) accessible; and (4) less resource-intensive than expansion of usual palliative care service delivery. The recommended conceptual model was to have the following features: (a) entry to palliative care occurs routinely triggered by clinical transitions in care; (b) care is embedded in routine ambulatory respiratory care, ensuring that it is regarded as "usual" care by patients and clinicians alike; (c) the tasks include screening for physical and psychological symptoms, social and community support, provision of information, and discussions around goals and preferences for care; and (d) transition to usual palliative care services is facilitated as the patient nears death. Our proposed innovative and conceptual model for provision of palliative care requires future formal testing using rigorous mixed-methods approaches to determine if theoretical propositions translate into effectiveness, feasibility, and benefits (including economic benefits). There is reason to consider adaptation of the model for the palliative care of patients with

  18. Supportive Accountability: A Model for Providing Human Support to Enhance Adherence to eHealth Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The effectiveness of and adherence to eHealth interventions is enhanced by human support. However, human support has largely not been manualized and has usually not been guided by clear models. The objective of this paper is to develop a clear theoretical model, based on relevant empirical literature, that can guide research into human support components of eHealth interventions. A review of the literature revealed little relevant information from clinical sciences. Applicable literature was drawn primarily from organizational psychology, motivation theory, and computer-mediated communication (CMC) research. We have developed a model, referred to as “Supportive Accountability.” We argue that human support increases adherence through accountability to a coach who is seen as trustworthy, benevolent, and having expertise. Accountability should involve clear, process-oriented expectations that the patient is involved in determining. Reciprocity in the relationship, through which the patient derives clear benefits, should be explicit. The effect of accountability may be moderated by patient motivation. The more intrinsically motivated patients are, the less support they likely require. The process of support is also mediated by the communications medium (eg, telephone, instant messaging, email). Different communications media each have their own potential benefits and disadvantages. We discuss the specific components of accountability, motivation, and CMC medium in detail. The proposed model is a first step toward understanding how human support enhances adherence to eHealth interventions. Each component of the proposed model is a testable hypothesis. As we develop viable human support models, these should be manualized to facilitate dissemination. PMID:21393123

  19. Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

    2018-03-01

    The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

  20. Most important factors modelling health status of an individual and the population. Part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sobieszczańska

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Human state of health is determined by so many factors that despite numerous studies conducted in many countries worldwide it is not possible to define them unequivocally. Health and diseases are conditioned in various parts of the world in different ways, both of the total population and the individual. Undoubtedly, these are strong premises to continue studies in the direction of unification of the definitions of health, disease, and disability.  In every country there is a different level of recognition of health problems of the population, their dimensions, causes and consequences, which should constitute knowledge to determine  projects, strengthening and improvement of the quality of health care. Modern actions in the domain of health promotion, prophylaxis, as well as health education, are of primary importance in the modelling of the state of health.  Objective The objective of the study was presentation of widely understood health and social factors, which may effectively influence the improvement of the state of health, both of an individual and the population, as evaluated in the sphere of health behaviours, availability and level of the health services offered, and the state of advancement of epidemiological knowledge while assessing positive and negative health measures.    Description of the state of knowledge The data published in many scientific studies, mainly by the agendas of the World Health Organization,  demonstrate that the factors shaping the level of human health include: incorrect life style, hazards within the physical environment, widely understood geographic factors (natural, climatic, which are specific in some latitudes, and the quality of care provided by health services. Many researchers have no doubt that from each of the large groups of factors it is possible to select smaller groups, the number and quality of which are  characteristic or highly specific to various groups of people

  1. Assessing the Importance of Prior Biospheric Fluxes on Inverse Model Estimates of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, S.; Johnson, M. S.; Potter, C. S.; Genovese, V. B.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric sources/sinks. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Currently, atmospheric chemical transport models (CTM) and global climate models (GCM) use multiple different biospheric CO2 flux models resulting in large differences in simulating the global carbon cycle. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission was designed to allow for the improved understanding of the processes involved in the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and therefore allowing for more accurate assessment of the seasonal/inter-annual variability of CO2. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions allowing for the evaluation of model simulations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and facilitating global/regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes. We conduct a 4-D Variation (4D-Var) data assimilation with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) CTM using 1) OCO-2 land nadir and land glint retrievals and 2) global in situ surface flask observations to constrain biospheric CO2 fluxes. We apply different state-of-the-science year-specific CO2 flux models (e.g., NASA-CASA (NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach), CASA-GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database), Simple Biosphere Model version 4 (SiB-4), and LPJ (Lund-Postdam-Jena)) to assess the impact of "a priori" flux predictions to "a posteriori" estimates. We will present the "top-down" CO2 flux estimates for the year 2015 using OCO-2 and in situ observations, and a complete indirect evaluation of the a priori and a posteriori flux estimates using independent in situ observations. We will also present our assessment of the variability of "top-down" CO2 flux estimates when using different

  2. The Roy Adaptation Model: A Theoretical Framework for Nurses Providing Care to Individuals With Anorexia Nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Karen M

    Using a nursing theoretical framework to understand, elucidate, and propose nursing research is fundamental to knowledge development. This article presents the Roy Adaptation Model as a theoretical framework to better understand individuals with anorexia nervosa during acute treatment, and the role of nursing assessments and interventions in the promotion of weight restoration. Nursing assessments and interventions situated within the Roy Adaptation Model take into consideration how weight restoration does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptive process within external and internal environments, and has the potential for more holistic care.

  3. A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moreno

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities.

  4. The Strategic Thinking and Learning Community: An Innovative Model for Providing Academic Assistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commander, Nannette Evans; Valeri-Gold, Maria; Darnell, Kim

    2004-01-01

    Today, academic assistance efforts are frequently geared to all students, not just the underprepared, with study skills offered in various formats. In this article, the authors describe a learning community model with the theme, "Strategic Thinking and Learning" (STL). Results of data analysis indicate that participants of the STL…

  5. Models Provide Specificity: Testing a Proposed Mechanism of Visual Working Memory Capacity Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmering, Vanessa R.; Patterson, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    Numerous studies have established that visual working memory has a limited capacity that increases during childhood. However, debate continues over the source of capacity limits and its developmental increase. Simmering (2008) adapted a computational model of spatial cognitive development, the Dynamic Field Theory, to explain not only the source…

  6. The Evolution of Software Pricing: From Box Licenses to Application Service Provider Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bontis, Nick; Chung, Honsan

    2000-01-01

    Describes three different pricing models for software. Findings of this case study support the proposition that software pricing is a complex and subjective process. The key determinant of alignment between vendor and user is the nature of value in the software to the buyer. This value proposition may range from increased cost reduction to…

  7. MODELING QUEUING SYSTEM OF INTERACTION BETWEEN TERMINAL DEVICES AND SERVICES PROVIDERS IN THE BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan A. Mnatsakanyan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the development of mathematical models and tools to optimize the system of queuing at the bank. The article discusses the mathematical aspects that will achieve redistribution of transaction flow, reduce the time of the request in the queue, increase the bank’s profit and gain competitive advantage.

  8. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. 40 CFR 1068.360 - What restrictions apply to assigning a model year to imported engines and equipment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... new engine identified as a 2007 model-year product that is imported on January 31, 2010 will be... equipment? This section includes limitations on assigning a model year to engines and equipment that are imported in a year later than the model year in which they were manufactured, except as specified in...

  10. Can "Ubuntu" Provide a Model for Citizenship Education in African Democracies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enslin, Penny; Horsthemke, Kai

    2004-01-01

    Some proponents of Africanism argue that African traditional education and the principles of "ubuntu" should provide the framework for citizenship education. While conceding that understandable concerns lie behind defences of "ubuntu" as underpinning African democracy, we argue that the Africanist perspective faces various problems and makes…

  11. The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Banos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, definedas a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two differentapproaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary DifferentialEquations (ODE Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR systems exploiting populations onnodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model, and a hybrid one, couplingODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions(mean field approximation, this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on whichwe focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemicpeak. However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidlydiverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is notcompletely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies,which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages anddisadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modelingand simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system.

  12. The importance of the strain rate and creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, Omar F.; Mattar Neto, Miguel; Schvartzman, Monica M.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking is a nuclear, power, petrochemical, and other industries equipment and components (like pressure vessels, nozzles, tubes, accessories) life degradation mode, involving fragile fracture. The stress corrosion cracking failures can produce serious accidents, and incidents which can put on risk the safety, reliability, and efficiency of many plants. These failures are of very complex prediction. The stress corrosion cracking mechanisms are based on three kinds of factors: microstructural, mechanical and environmental. Concerning the mechanical factors, various authors prefer to consider the crack tip strain rate rather than stress, as a decisive factor which contributes to the process: this parameter is directly influenced by the creep strain rate of the material. Based on two KAPL-Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory experimental studies in SSRT (slow strain rate test) and CL (constant load) test, for prediction of primary water stress corrosion cracking in nickel based alloys, it has done a data compilation of the film rupture mechanism parameters, for modeling PWSCC of Alloy 600 and discussed the importance of the strain rate and the creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models. As derived from this study, a simple theoretical model is proposed, and it is showed that the crack growth rate estimated with Brazilian tests results with Alloy 600 in SSRT, are according with the KAPL ones and other published literature. (author)

  13. Canine periodontitis: the dog as an important model for periodontal studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albuquerque, Carlos; Morinha, Francisco; Requicha, João; Martins, Teresa; Dias, Isabel; Guedes-Pinto, Henrique; Bastos, Estela; Viegas, Carlos

    2012-03-01

    Periodontal disease (PD) refers to a group of inflammatory diseases caused by bacterial plaque in the periodontium and ranges from an early stage (gingivitis) to an advanced stage (periodontitis). It is a multifactorial disease that results from the interaction of the host defence mechanisms with the plaque microorganisms. Early detection, diagnosis and treatment are essential in the control of this disease. PD has an enormous impact on human and veterinary medicine due to its high prevalence. The most common animal PD models use dogs and non-human primates, although other animals (rats, mice, hamsters, rabbits, miniature pigs, ferrets, and sheep) have also been employed. Dog models have contributed significantly to the current understanding of periodontology. The most important clinical aspects of canine PD are considered in this review and the various animal models are examined with an emphasis on the role of the dog as the most useful approach for understanding human PD and in the development of new therapeutic and preventive measures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  15. Modeling of spatial distribution for scorpions of medical importance in the São Paulo State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Brites-Neto

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim: In this work, we aimed to develop maps of modeling geographic distribution correlating to environmental suitability for the two species of scorpions of medical importance at São Paulo State and to develop spatial configuration parameters for epidemiological surveillance of these species of venomous animals. Materials and Methods: In this study, 54 georeferenced points for Tityus serrulatus and 86 points for Tityus bahiensis and eight environmental indicators, were used to generate species distribution models in Maxent (maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions version 3.3.3k using 70% of data for training (n=38 to T. serrulatus and n=60 to T. bahiensis and 30% to test the models (n=16 for T. serrulatus and n=26 for T. bahiensis. The logistic threshold used to cut models in converting the continuous probability model into a binary model was the “maximum test sensitivity plus specificity,” provided by Maxent, with results of 0.4143 to T. serrulatus and of 0.3401 to T. bahiensis. The models were evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC, using the omission error and the binomial probability. With the data generated by Maxent, distribution maps were produced using the “ESRI® ArcGIS 10.2.2 for Desktop” software. Results: The models had high predictive success (AUC=0.7698±0.0533, omission error=0.2467 and p<0.001 for T. serrulatus and AUC=0.8205±0.0390, omission error=0.1917 and p<0.001 for T. bahiensis and the resultant maps showed a high environmental suitability in the north, central, and southeast of the state, confirming the increasing spread of these species. The environmental variables that mostly contributed to the scorpions species distribution model were rain precipitation (28.9% and tree cover (28.2% for the T. serrulatus and temperature (45.8% and thermal amplitude (12.6% for the T. bahiensis. Conclusion: The distribution model of these species of medical importance scorpions in São Paulo State

  16. Using Model-Based System Engineering to Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-Cycle and Technical Reviews Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Edith L.; Weiland, Karen J.

    2017-01-01

    This is the presentation for the AIAA Space conference in September 2017. It highlights key information from Using Model-Based Systems Engineering to Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-cycle and Technical Reviews paper.

  17. Programming with models: modularity and abstraction provide powerful capabilities for systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallavarapu, Aneil; Thomson, Matthew; Ullian, Benjamin; Gunawardena, Jeremy

    2009-03-06

    Mathematical models are increasingly used to understand how phenotypes emerge from systems of molecular interactions. However, their current construction as monolithic sets of equations presents a fundamental barrier to progress. Overcoming this requires modularity, enabling sub-systems to be specified independently and combined incrementally, and abstraction, enabling generic properties of biological processes to be specified independently of specific instances. These, in turn, require models to be represented as programs rather than as datatypes. Programmable modularity and abstraction enables libraries of modules to be created, which can be instantiated and reused repeatedly in different contexts with different components. We have developed a computational infrastructure that accomplishes this. We show here why such capabilities are needed, what is required to implement them and what can be accomplished with them that could not be done previously.

  18. RN Diabetes Virtual Case Management: A New Model for Providing Chronic Care Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Nancy N; Carrara, Barbara E; Watts, Sharon A; Lucatorto, Michelle A

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. chronic disease health care system has substantial gaps in delivery of services. New models of care change traditional delivery of care and explore new settings for care. This article describes a new model of diabetes chronic care delivery: nurse-delivered care that includes protocol-based insulin titration and patient education delivered solely in a virtual environment. In phase 1, the clinical outcome of time to achievement of glycated hemoglobin (A(1C)) goals (P managed insulin titration protocol with individualized A(1C) goals had a significant (P Safety was demonstrated by the absence of hypoglycemia related to RN protocol adjustment. There were no admissions or emergency room (ER) visits for hypoglycemia. This study demonstrates safety and efficacy of RN virtual chronic disease management for an older population of patients with long-standing diabetes.

  19. Churn Forecasting Model for South African Pre-Paid Service Providers

    OpenAIRE

    Olusola Gbenga Olufemi; Trudie Strydom

    2018-01-01

    Telecommunication companies globally confront with rising problems of customer agitations. Inadequacy of telecoms’ rendered services, delivered products and many other causes, result to the difficult moments telecoms face. These problems have further degenerated to customers leaving from one network provider to the other, in quest for improved satisfaction. Churn is the term used to describe this customers’ resultant movement, due to agitation caused by inadequate operations. The Republic of ...

  20. Model of a multiverse providing the dark energy of our universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebhan, E.

    2017-09-01

    It is shown that the dark energy presently observed in our universe can be regarded as the energy of a scalar field driving an inflation-like expansion of a multiverse with ours being a subuniverse among other parallel universes. A simple model of this multiverse is elaborated: Assuming closed space geometry, the origin of the multiverse can be explained by quantum tunneling from nothing; subuniverses are supposed to emerge from local fluctuations of separate inflation fields. The standard concept of tunneling from nothing is extended to the effect that in addition to an inflationary scalar field, matter is also generated, and that the tunneling leads to an (unstable) equilibrium state. The cosmological principle is assumed to pertain from the origin of the multiverse until the first subuniverses emerge. With increasing age of the multiverse, its spatial curvature decays exponentially so fast that, due to sharing the same space, the flatness problem of our universe resolves by itself. The dark energy density imprinted by the multiverse on our universe is time-dependent, but such that the ratio w = ϱ/(c2p) of its mass density and pressure (times c2) is time-independent and assumes a value - 1 + 𝜖 with arbitrary 𝜖 > 0. 𝜖 can be chosen so small, that the dark energy model of this paper can be fitted to the current observational data as well as the cosmological constant model.

  1. Docosahexaenoic Acid (DHA) Provides Neuroprotection in Traumatic Brain Injury Models via Activating Nrf2-ARE Signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Ding, Yuexia; Kong, Wei; Li, Tuo; Chen, Hongguang

    2018-04-16

    In this study, we explored the neuroprotective effects of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in traumatic brain injury (TBI) models. In this study, we first confirmed that DHA was neuroprotective against TBI via the NSS test and Morris water maze experiment. Western blot was conducted to identify the expression of Bax, caspase-3, and Bcl-2. And the cell apoptosis of the TBI models was validated by TUNEL staining. Relationships between nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2-antioxidant response element (Nrf2-ARE) pathway-related genes and DHA were explored by RT-PCR and Western blot. Rats of the DHA group performed remarkably better than those of the TBI group in both NSS test and water maze experiment. DHA conspicuously promoted the expression of Bcl-2 and diminished that of cleaved caspase-3 and Bax, indicating the anti-apoptotic role of DHA. Superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and cortical malondialdehyde content, glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity were renovated in rats receiving DHA treatment, implying that the neuroprotective influence of DHA was derived from lightening the oxidative stress caused by TBI. Moreover, immunofluorescence and Western blot experiments revealed that DHA facilitated the translocation of Nrf2 to the nucleus. DHA administration also notably increased the expression of the downstream factors NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase (NQO-1) and heme oxygenase 1(HO-1). DHA exerted neuroprotective influence on the TBI models, potentially through activating the Nrf2- ARE pathway.

  2. RESEARCH OF PROBLEMS OF DESIGN OF COMPLEX TECHNICAL PROVIDING AND THE GENERALIZED MODEL OF THEIR DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Skrypnikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. In this work the general ideas of a method of V. I. Skurikhin taking into account the specified features develop and questions of the analysis and synthesis of a complex of technical means, with finishing them to the level suitable for use in engineering practice of design of information management systems are in more detail considered. In work the general system approach to the solution of questions of a choice of technical means of the information management system is created, the general technique of the sys tem analysis and synthesis of a complex of the technical means and its subsystems providing achievement of extreme value of criterion of efficiency of functioning of a technical complex of the information management system is developed. The main attention is paid to the applied party of system researches of complex technical providing, in particular, to definition of criteria of quality of functioning of a technical complex, development of methods of the analysis of information base of the information management system and definition of requirements to technical means, and also methods of structural synthesis of the main subsystems of complex technical providing. Thus, the purpose is research on the basis of system approach of complex technical providing the information management system and development of a number of methods of the analysis and the synthesis of complex technical providing suitable for use in engineering practice of design of systems. The well-known paradox of development of management information consists of that parameters of the system, and consequently, and requirements to the complex hardware, can not be strictly reasonable to development of algorithms and programs, and vice versa. The possible method of overcoming of these difficulties is prognostication of structure and parameters of complex hardware for certain management informations on the early stages of development, with subsequent clarification and

  3. Financial mechanisms and social safety-oriented model of development of the Russian economy (based on import substitution and innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Ovchinnikova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In article features of import substitution in the socially oriented model determined as economy with the high level of the state income redistribution of subjects of managing and developed on this basis of system of social protection are considered. Import substitution is considered from the traditional point of view – creation of new productions and technologies which are implemented at the expense of own and borrowed funds of investors. The financial mechanisms for implementation of innovations promoting import substitution are offered: industry plans and road maps as availability of reference points for creation of rational amounts of the budget payments and financial resources of the entities necessary for upgrade of productions, and also the directions of financial resources for implementation of specific most important national priorities and innovative investment projects. The volume of investment into the fixed capital correlated to its cost considerably grew from 3.5% in 2003 to 11.6% in 2009, but value of this indicator isn't enough as degree of depreciation of fixed assets in economy of the region constituted 44.9% in 2009. Direct foreign investments prevail: in Krasnoyarsk Krai their share constituted in 2009 – 45.4%, Krasnodar Region – 40.5%, the Nizhny Novgorod Region – 84.5%. In the Voronezh region such entities as KBHA, Federal State Unitary Enterprise State Research and Production Space Center branch of M. V. Khrunichev the Voronezh Mechanical Plant, JSC Sozvezdiye Concern having the high technologies making safety of the country and especially needing investments function. In plans of urgent strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region it is supposed to increase specific weight of innovative products of such entities and to increase the level of innovative activity till 2020. The socially oriented model considering import substitution domestic technologies and products needs strengthening of the

  4. Fee-for-service as a business model of growing importance: the academic biobank experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Sandra A; Sommerkamp, Kara; Egan-Palmer, Maureen; Kharasch, Karen; Holtschlag, Victoria

    2012-10-01

    Biorepositories offer tremendous scientific value to a wide variety of customer groups (academic, commercial, industrial) in their ability to deliver a centralized, standardized service model, encompassing both biospecimen storage and related laboratory services. Generally, the scientific expertise and economies of scale that are offered in centralized, properly resourced research biobanks has yielded value that has been well-recognized by universities, pharmaceutical companies, and other sponsoring institutions. However, like many facets of the economy, biobanks have been under increasing cost pressure in recent years. This has been a particular problem in the academic arena, where direct support from grant sources (both governmental and philanthropic) typically now is more difficult to secure, or provides reduced financial support, relative to previous years. One way to address this challenge is to establish or enhance a well-defined fee-for-service model which is properly calibrated to cover operational costs while still offering competitive value to users. In this model, customers are never charged for the biospecimens themselves, but rather for the laboratory services associated with them. Good communication practices, proper assessment of value, implementation of best practices, and a sound business plan are all needed for this initiative to succeed. Here we summarize our experiences at Washington University School of Medicine in the expectation they will be useful to others.

  5. The importance of health belief models in determining self-care behaviour in diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, J N; Lawson, V L

    2009-01-01

    Patients' self-care behaviours have a major role in diabetes management. Diabetes education provides the required knowledge, but despite this, self-care is often suboptimal. The degree to which patients follow advice as regards the various self-care behaviours is determined by their health beliefs (Illness Representations or Personal Models) of diabetes. Psychometric studies have tried to categorize and measure the beliefs about illness that influence patients to adhere to treatment recommendations in diabetes. Various models have been proposed to explain the relationship between beliefs and behaviour. Leventhal's Self-Regulatory Model, which takes account of the emotional as well as the objective rational response to illness, currently seems to offer the best system for identifying the determinants of patient self-care behaviour. A review of interventions indicates those based on psychological theory offer professionals the best chance of maximizing their patients' contribution to diabetes self-management and achieving improved outcomes, both glycaemic and psychosocial. Studies designed specifically to modify illness representations are now being undertaken. This brief review aims to summarize developments in this area of psychological theory over the last 20 years and the implications for promoting better self-care behaviour in diabetes.

  6. On the importance of valve modelling, reflected pressures, and wall friction, in CATHENA water hammer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuthe, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    The results of code and modelling developments outlined in this paper show that CATHENA can be used to accurately model the behaviour of valve slam generated water hammer if sufficient care and detail are used to model the characteristics of the valve. It also shows that CATHENA can accurately predict the reflection and transmission of travelling water pressure waves at expansions, contractions, and dead ends. Finally, although CATHENA is capable of accurately predicting the critical phenomena observed in water hammer, the inter-peak timing of the pressure excursions is not well predicted when significant bulk flows occur. The use of an unsteady wall friction factor to correct for this discrepancy has been examined, but the implementation of relationships suggested in the literature provided too much damping. A good match between experimental and simulation data can be achieved, but it is suggested that the default implementation of such a relationship take place only after an investigation of further potential loss terms can be completed. (author)

  7. The Importance of Role Modeling in Mentoring Women: Lessons from Pat Summitt Legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Picariello Manuela

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The role of mentoring for women in sports industry has gathered attention among researchers in the past years (Bower, 2009; Bower, & Hums 2009, 2014; Weaver, & Chelladurai, 1999, 2002. Since few women are in leadership positions (Acosta, & Carpenter, 2014, cross-gender mentoring relationships are more likely to happen (Hopkins et al., 2008. However, according to Kram (1985, cross-gender mentoring relationships are more complex in terms of individual development and quality of the developmental relationship. In particular, role modeling function is limited (Kram, 1985. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the functions of the same gender mentoring relationships looking at coach Pat Summitt, the winningest coach in NCAA Division I basketball history and a woman in leadership position (Becker & Wrisberg, 2008. Due to the exploratory nature of the study and the huge impact of Pat Summitt on sport (Janssen, & Dale, 2002, De Marco, & Mccullick, 1997, a single case study design to analyze her relationships from the staff and players’ perspectives was utilized as the method for data collection. This study collected data published on American news sites located using Internet search engines Google News (http://www.google.com for 7 days. The dataset included content published through national and regional online news media, radio, television and entertainment websites and blogs. Texts were qualitatively reviewed with a content analysis and coded (Patton, 2002. This study identified career and psychosocial functions that were important in developing an effective mentoring relationships. In particular, the psychosocial functions of “role modeling” was identified as the most important for the relationship. In fact a female mentor as a role model can be perceived as a woman that has successfully overcome discriminatory barriers to career advancement.

  8. An artificial pancreas provided a novel model of blood glucose level variability in beagles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munekage, Masaya; Yatabe, Tomoaki; Kitagawa, Hiroyuki; Takezaki, Yuka; Tamura, Takahiko; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Hanazaki, Kazuhiro

    2015-12-01

    Although the effects on prognosis of blood glucose level variability have gained increasing attention, it is unclear whether blood glucose level variability itself or the manifestation of pathological conditions that worsen prognosis. Then, previous reports have not been published on variability models of perioperative blood glucose levels. The aim of this study is to establish a novel variability model of blood glucose concentration using an artificial pancreas. We maintained six healthy, male beagles. After anesthesia induction, a 20-G venous catheter was inserted in the right femoral vein and an artificial pancreas (STG-22, Nikkiso Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) was connected for continuous blood glucose monitoring and glucose management. After achieving muscle relaxation, total pancreatectomy was performed. After 1 h of stabilization, automatic blood glucose control was initiated using the artificial pancreas. Blood glucose level varied for 8 h, alternating between the target blood glucose values of 170 and 70 mg/dL. Eight hours later, the experiment was concluded. Total pancreatectomy was performed for 62 ± 13 min. Blood glucose swings were achieved 9.8 ± 2.3 times. The average blood glucose level was 128.1 ± 5.1 mg/dL with an SD of 44.6 ± 3.9 mg/dL. The potassium levels after stabilization and at the end of the experiment were 3.5 ± 0.3 and 3.1 ± 0.5 mmol/L, respectively. In conclusion, the results of the present study demonstrated that an artificial pancreas contributed to the establishment of a novel variability model of blood glucose levels in beagles.

  9. User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

    2013-01-01

    User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

  10. A tool to convert CAD models for importation into Geant4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuosalo, C.; Carlsmith, D.; Dasu, S.; Palladino, K.; LUX-ZEPLIN Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The engineering design of a particle detector is usually performed in a Computer Aided Design (CAD) program, and simulation of the detector’s performance can be done with a Geant4-based program. However, transferring the detector design from the CAD program to Geant4 can be laborious and error-prone. SW2GDML is a tool that reads a design in the popular SOLIDWORKS CAD program and outputs Geometry Description Markup Language (GDML), used by Geant4 for importing and exporting detector geometries. Other methods for outputting CAD designs are available, such as the STEP format, and tools exist to convert these formats into GDML. However, these conversion methods produce very large and unwieldy designs composed of tessellated solids that can reduce Geant4 performance. In contrast, SW2GDML produces compact, human-readable GDML that employs standard geometric shapes rather than tessellated solids. This paper will describe the development and current capabilities of SW2GDML and plans for its enhancement. The aim of this tool is to automate importation of detector engineering models into Geant4-based simulation programs to support rapid, iterative cycles of detector design, simulation, and optimization.

  11. Using semi-variogram analysis for providing spatially distributed information on soil surface condition for land surface modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Holly; Anderson, Karen; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

    2010-05-01

    The ability to quantitatively and spatially assess soil surface roughness is important in geomorphology and land degradation studies. Soils can experience rapid structural degradation in response to land cover changes, resulting in increased susceptibility to erosion and a loss of Soil Organic Matter (SOM). Changes in soil surface condition can also alter sediment detachment, transport and deposition processes, infiltration rates and surface runoff characteristics. Deriving spatially distributed quantitative information on soil surface condition for inclusion in hydrological and soil erosion models is therefore paramount. However, due to the time and resources involved in using traditional field sampling techniques, there is a lack of spatially distributed information on soil surface condition. Laser techniques can provide data for a rapid three dimensional representation of the soil surface at a fine spatial resolution. This provides the ability to capture changes at the soil surface associated with aggregate breakdown, flow routing, erosion and sediment re-distribution. Semi-variogram analysis of the laser data can be used to represent spatial dependence within the dataset; providing information about the spatial character of soil surface structure. This experiment details the ability of semi-variogram analysis to spatially describe changes in soil surface condition. Soil for three soil types (silt, silt loam and silty clay) was sieved to produce aggregates between 1 mm and 16 mm in size and placed evenly in sample trays (25 x 20 x 2 cm). Soil samples for each soil type were exposed to five different durations of artificial rainfall, to produce progressively structurally degraded soil states. A calibrated laser profiling instrument was used to measure surface roughness over a central 10 x 10 cm plot of each soil state, at 2 mm sample spacing. The laser data were analysed within a geostatistical framework, where semi-variogram analysis quantitatively represented

  12. fiReproxies: A computational model providing insight into heat-affected archaeological lithic assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Andrew C; Scherjon, Fulco

    2018-01-01

    Evidence for fire use becomes increasingly sparse the further back in time one looks. This is especially true for Palaeolithic assemblages. Primary evidence of fire use in the form of hearth features tends to give way to clusters or sparse scatters of more durable heated stone fragments. In the absence of intact fireplaces, these thermally altered lithic remains have been used as a proxy for discerning relative degrees of fire use between archaeological layers and deposits. While previous experimental studies have demonstrated the physical effects of heat on stony artefacts, the mechanisms influencing the proportion of fire proxy evidence within archaeological layers remain understudied. This fundamental study is the first to apply a computer-based model (fiReproxies) in an attempt to simulate and quantify the complex interplay of factors that ultimately determine when and in what proportions lithic artefacts are heated by (anthropogenic) fires. As an illustrative example, we apply our model to two hypothetical archaeological layers that reflect glacial and interglacial conditions during the late Middle Palaeolithic within a generic simulated cave site to demonstrate how different environmental, behavioural and depositional factors like site surface area, sedimentation rate, occupation frequency, and fire size and intensity can, independently or together, significantly influence the visibility of archaeological fire signals.

  13. Penerapan Model Multidimensional Scaling dalam Pemetaan Brand Positioning Internet Service Provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robertus Tang Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this high-tech era, there have been tremendous advances in tech-based products and services. Internet is one of them that have widened the world’s eyes to a new borderless marketplace. High competition among internet service providers has pushed companies to create competitive advantage and brilliant marketing strategies. They undertake positioning mapping to describe product or service’s positioning amongst many competitors. The right positioning strategy becomes a powerful weapon to win in the battle. This research is designed to create positioning mapping based on perceptual mapping. The researcher uses Multidimensional Scaling and image mapping to achieve this research goal. Sampling is using non-probability sampling in Jakarta. Based on non-attribute approach, the research findings show that there is similarity between two different brands. Thus, both brands are competing against one another. On the other hand, CBN and Netzap provider reflect some differences to others. And some brands require some improvements in terms of network reliability.

  14. Patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cells in neurological disease modeling: the importance of nonhuman primate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiu Z

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Zhifang Qiu,1,2 Steven L Farnsworth,2 Anuja Mishra,1,2 Peter J Hornsby1,21Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, USA; 2Barshop Institute for Longevity and Aging Studies, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, USAAbstract: The development of the technology for derivation of induced pluripotent stem (iPS cells from human patients and animal models has opened up new pathways to the better understanding of many human diseases, and has created new opportunities for therapeutic approaches. Here, we consider one important neurological disease, Parkinson's, the development of relevant neural cell lines for studying this disease, and the animal models that are available for testing the survival and function of the cells, following transplantation into the central nervous system. Rapid progress has been made recently in the application of protocols for neuroectoderm differentiation and neural patterning of pluripotent stem cells. These developments have resulted in the ability to produce large numbers of dopaminergic neurons with midbrain characteristics for further study. These cells have been shown to be functional in both rodent and nonhuman primate (NHP models of Parkinson's disease. Patient-specific iPS cells and derived dopaminergic neurons have been developed, in particular from patients with genetic causes of Parkinson's disease. For complete modeling of the disease, it is proposed that the introduction of genetic changes into NHP iPS cells, followed by studying the phenotype of the genetic change in cells transplanted into the NHP as host animal, will yield new insights into disease processes not possible with rodent models alone.Keywords: Parkinson's disease, pluripotent cell differentiation, neural cell lines, dopaminergic neurons, cell transplantation, animal models

  15. A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2014-09-01

    Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

  16. Quantifying relative importance: Computing standardized effects in models with binary outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, James B.; Johnson, Darren; Lefcheck, Jonathan S.; Byrnes, Jarrett E.K.

    2018-01-01

    Scientists commonly ask questions about the relative importances of processes, and then turn to statistical models for answers. Standardized coefficients are typically used in such situations, with the goal being to compare effects on a common scale. Traditional approaches to obtaining standardized coefficients were developed with idealized Gaussian variables in mind. When responses are binary, complications arise that impact standardization methods. In this paper, we review, evaluate, and propose new methods for standardizing coefficients from models that contain binary outcomes. We first consider the interpretability of unstandardized coefficients and then examine two main approaches to standardization. One approach, which we refer to as the Latent-Theoretical or LT method, assumes that underlying binary observations there exists a latent, continuous propensity linearly related to the coefficients. A second approach, which we refer to as the Observed-Empirical or OE method, assumes responses are purely discrete and estimates error variance empirically via reference to a classical R2 estimator. We also evaluate the standard formula for calculating standardized coefficients based on standard deviations. Criticisms of this practice have been persistent, leading us to propose an alternative formula that is based on user-defined “relevant ranges”. Finally, we implement all of the above in an open-source package for the statistical software R.

  17. A hydrogeomorphic river network model predicts where and why hyporheic exchange is important in large basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Harvey, Judson

    2014-01-01

    Hyporheic exchange has been hypothesized to have basin-scale consequences; however, predictions throughout river networks are limited by available geomorphic and hydrogeologic data and by models that can analyze and aggregate hyporheic exchange flows across large spatial scales. We developed a parsimonious but physically based model of hyporheic flow for application in large river basins: Networks with EXchange and Subsurface Storage (NEXSS). We applied NEXSS across a broad range of geomorphic diversity in river reaches and synthetic river networks. NEXSS demonstrates that vertical exchange beneath submerged bed forms rather than lateral exchange through meanders dominates hyporheic fluxes and turnover rates along river corridors. Per kilometer, low-order streams have a biogeochemical potential at least 2 orders of magnitude larger than higher-order streams. However, when biogeochemical potential is examined per average length of each stream order, low- and high-order streams were often found to be comparable. As a result, the hyporheic zone's intrinsic potential for biogeochemical transformations is comparable across different stream orders, but the greater river miles and larger total streambed area of lower order streams result in the highest cumulative impact from low-order streams. Lateral exchange through meander banks may be important in some cases but generally only in large rivers.

  18. JSBML 1.0: providing a smorgasbord of options to encode systems biology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Nicolas; Thomas, Alex; Watanabe, Leandro

    2015-01-01

    JSBML, the official pure Java programming library for the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) format, has evolved with the advent of different modeling formalisms in systems biology and their ability to be exchanged and represented via extensions of SBML. JSBML has matured into a major, active...... open-source project with contributions from a growing, international team of developers who not only maintain compatibility with SBML, but also drive steady improvements to the Java interface and promote ease-of-use with end users. Source code, binaries and documentation for JSBML can be freely...... obtained under the terms of the LGPL 2.1 from the website http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML. More information about JSBML can be found in the user guide at http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML/docs/. jsbml-development@googlegroups.com or andraeger@eng.ucsd.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics...

  19. Pharmacological targeting of GSK-3 and NRF2 provides neuroprotection in a preclinical model of tauopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Cuadrado

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tauopathies are a group of neurodegenerative disorders where TAU protein is presented as aggregates or is abnormally phosphorylated, leading to alterations of axonal transport, neuronal death and neuroinflammation. Currently, there is no treatment to slow progression of these diseases. Here, we have investigated whether dimethyl fumarate (DMF, an inducer of the transcription factor NRF2, could mitigate tauopathy in a mouse model. The signaling pathways modulated by DMF were also studied in mouse embryonic fibroblast (MEFs from wild type or KEAP1-deficient mice. The effect of DMF on neurodegeneration, astrocyte and microglial activation was examined in Nrf2+/+ and Nrf2−/− mice stereotaxically injected in the right hippocampus with an adeno-associated vector expressing human TAUP301L and treated daily with DMF (100 mg/kg, i.g during three weeks. DMF induces the NRF2 transcriptional through a mechanism that involves KEAP1 but also PI3K/AKT/GSK-3-dependent pathways. DMF modulates GSK-3β activity in mouse hippocampi. Furthermore, DMF modulates TAU phosphorylation, neuronal impairment measured by calbindin-D28K and BDNF expression, and inflammatory processes involved in astrogliosis, microgliosis and pro-inflammatory cytokines production. This study reveals neuroprotective effects of DMF beyond disruption of the KEAP1/NRF2 axis by inhibiting GSK3 in a mouse model of tauopathy. Our results support repurposing of this drug for treatment of these diseases. Keywords: DMF, Inflammation, Neurodegeneration, NRF2, Oxidative stress, TAU/ GSK-3

  20. Lightning Forcing in Global Fire Models: The Importance of Temporal Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felsberg, A.; Kloster, S.; Wilkenskjeld, S.; Krause, A.; Lasslop, G.

    2018-01-01

    In global fire models, lightning is typically prescribed from observational data with monthly mean temporal resolution while meteorological forcings, such as precipitation or temperature, are prescribed in a daily resolution. In this study, we investigate the importance of the temporal resolution of the lightning forcing for the simulation of burned area by varying from daily to monthly and annual mean forcing. For this, we utilize the vegetation fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE to simulate burned area, forced with meteorological and lightning data derived from the general circulation model ECHAM6. On a global scale, differences in burned area caused by lightning forcing applied in coarser temporal resolution stay below 0.55% compared to the use of daily mean forcing. Regionally, however, differences reach up to 100%, depending on the region and season. Monthly averaged lightning forcing as well as the monthly lightning climatology cause differences through an interaction between lightning ignitions and fire prone weather conditions, accounted for by the fire danger index. This interaction leads to decreased burned area in the boreal zone and increased burned area in the Tropics and Subtropics under the coarser temporal resolution. The exclusion of interannual variability, when forced with the lightning climatology, has only a minor impact on the simulated burned area. Annually averaged lightning forcing causes differences as a direct result of the eliminated seasonal characteristics of lightning. Burned area is decreased in summer and increased in winter where fuel is available. Regions with little seasonality, such as the Tropics and Subtropics, experience an increase in burned area.

  1. Measuring the Quality of Services Provided for Outpatients in Kowsar Clinic in Ardebil City Based on the SERVQUAL Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Ghobadi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Today, the concept of q uality of services is particularly important in health care and customer satisfaction can be defined by comparing the expectations of the services with perception of provided services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of services provided for outpatients in clinic of Ardebil city based on the SERVQUAL model.   Methods: This descriptive study was conducted on 650 patients referred to outpatient clinic since July to September 201 3 using a standardized SERVQUAL questionnaire (1988 with confirmed reliability and validity. The paired t-test and Friedman test were used for analysis of data by SPSS software.   Results: 56.1 % of respondents were male and 43.9 % of them were female . The mean age of patients was 33 ± 11.91 , 68.9 % of patients were in Ardabil and 27.3 % of them had bachelor's or higher. The results showed that there is a significant difference between perceptions and expectations of the patients about five dimensions of the service quality (tangibility, reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy in the studied clinic (P< 0.001. The highest mean gap and minimum gap were related to empathy and assurance, respectively.   Conclusion: Regarding to observed differences in quality , the managers and also planners have to evaluate their performance more accurately in order to have better planning for future actions. In fact, any efforts to reduce the gap between expectation and perception of patients result in greater satisfaction, loyalty and further visits to organizations.

  2. Aire-deficient mice provide a model of corneal and lacrimal gland neuropathy in Sjögren's syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feeling Y Chen

    Full Text Available Sjögren's syndrome (SS is a chronic, autoimmune exocrinopathy that leads to severe dryness of the mouth and eyes. Exocrine function is highly regulated by neuronal mechanisms but little is known about the link between chronic inflammation, innervation and altered exocrine function in the diseased eyes and exocrine glands of SS patients. To gain a better understanding of neuronal regulation in the immunopathogenesis of autoimmune exocrinopathy, we profiled a mouse model of spontaneous, autoimmune exocrinopathy that possess key characteristics of peripheral neuropathy experienced by SS patients. Mice deficient in the autoimmune regulator (Aire gene developed spontaneous, CD4+ T cell-mediated exocrinopathy and aqueous-deficient dry eye that were associated with loss of nerves innervating the cornea and lacrimal gland. Changes in innervation and tear secretion were accompanied by increased proliferation of corneal epithelial basal cells, limbal expansion of KRT19-positive progenitor cells, increased vascularization of the peripheral cornea and reduced nerve function in the lacrimal gland. In addition, we found extensive loss of MIST1+ secretory acinar cells in the Aire -/- lacrimal gland suggesting that acinar cells are a primary target of the disease, Finally, topical application of ophthalmic steroid effectively restored corneal innervation in Aire -/- mice thereby functionally linking nerve loss with local inflammation in the aqueous-deficient dry eye. These data provide important insight regarding the relationship between chronic inflammation and neuropathic changes in autoimmune-mediated dry eye. Peripheral neuropathies characteristic of SS appear to be tightly linked with the underlying immunopathological mechanism and Aire -/- mice provide an excellent tool to explore the interplay between SS-associated immunopathology and peripheral neuropathy.

  3. SNP discovery and chromosome anchoring provide the first physically-anchored hexaploid oat map and reveal synteny with model species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebekah E Oliver

    Full Text Available A physically anchored consensus map is foundational to modern genomics research; however, construction of such a map in oat (Avena sativa L., 2n = 6x = 42 has been hindered by the size and complexity of the genome, the scarcity of robust molecular markers, and the lack of aneuploid stocks. Resources developed in this study include a modified SNP discovery method for complex genomes, a diverse set of oat SNP markers, and a novel chromosome-deficient SNP anchoring strategy. These resources were applied to build the first complete, physically-anchored consensus map of hexaploid oat. Approximately 11,000 high-confidence in silico SNPs were discovered based on nine million inter-varietal sequence reads of genomic and cDNA origin. GoldenGate genotyping of 3,072 SNP assays yielded 1,311 robust markers, of which 985 were mapped in 390 recombinant-inbred lines from six bi-parental mapping populations ranging in size from 49 to 97 progeny. The consensus map included 985 SNPs and 68 previously-published markers, resolving 21 linkage groups with a total map distance of 1,838.8 cM. Consensus linkage groups were assigned to 21 chromosomes using SNP deletion analysis of chromosome-deficient monosomic hybrid stocks. Alignments with sequenced genomes of rice and Brachypodium provide evidence for extensive conservation of genomic regions, and renewed encouragement for orthology-based genomic discovery in this important hexaploid species. These results also provide a framework for high-resolution genetic analysis in oat, and a model for marker development and map construction in other species with complex genomes and limited resources.

  4. Aire-deficient mice provide a model of corneal and lacrimal gland neuropathy in Sjögren's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feeling Y; Lee, Albert; Ge, Shaokui; Nathan, Sara; Knox, Sarah M; McNamara, Nancy A

    2017-01-01

    Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is a chronic, autoimmune exocrinopathy that leads to severe dryness of the mouth and eyes. Exocrine function is highly regulated by neuronal mechanisms but little is known about the link between chronic inflammation, innervation and altered exocrine function in the diseased eyes and exocrine glands of SS patients. To gain a better understanding of neuronal regulation in the immunopathogenesis of autoimmune exocrinopathy, we profiled a mouse model of spontaneous, autoimmune exocrinopathy that possess key characteristics of peripheral neuropathy experienced by SS patients. Mice deficient in the autoimmune regulator (Aire) gene developed spontaneous, CD4+ T cell-mediated exocrinopathy and aqueous-deficient dry eye that were associated with loss of nerves innervating the cornea and lacrimal gland. Changes in innervation and tear secretion were accompanied by increased proliferation of corneal epithelial basal cells, limbal expansion of KRT19-positive progenitor cells, increased vascularization of the peripheral cornea and reduced nerve function in the lacrimal gland. In addition, we found extensive loss of MIST1+ secretory acinar cells in the Aire -/- lacrimal gland suggesting that acinar cells are a primary target of the disease, Finally, topical application of ophthalmic steroid effectively restored corneal innervation in Aire -/- mice thereby functionally linking nerve loss with local inflammation in the aqueous-deficient dry eye. These data provide important insight regarding the relationship between chronic inflammation and neuropathic changes in autoimmune-mediated dry eye. Peripheral neuropathies characteristic of SS appear to be tightly linked with the underlying immunopathological mechanism and Aire -/- mice provide an excellent tool to explore the interplay between SS-associated immunopathology and peripheral neuropathy.

  5. Blood-brain barrier alterations provide evidence of subacute diaschisis in an ischemic stroke rat model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Garbuzova-Davis

    Full Text Available Comprehensive stroke studies reveal diaschisis, a loss of function due to pathological deficits in brain areas remote from initial ischemic lesion. However, blood-brain barrier (BBB competence in subacute diaschisis is uncertain. The present study investigated subacute diaschisis in a focal ischemic stroke rat model. Specific focuses were BBB integrity and related pathogenic processes in contralateral brain areas.In ipsilateral hemisphere 7 days after transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO, significant BBB alterations characterized by large Evans Blue (EB parenchymal extravasation, autophagosome accumulation, increased reactive astrocytes and activated microglia, demyelinization, and neuronal damage were detected in the striatum, motor and somatosensory cortices. Vascular damage identified by ultrastuctural and immunohistochemical analyses also occurred in the contralateral hemisphere. In contralateral striatum and motor cortex, major ultrastructural BBB changes included: swollen and vacuolated endothelial cells containing numerous autophagosomes, pericyte degeneration, and perivascular edema. Additionally, prominent EB extravasation, increased endothelial autophagosome formation, rampant astrogliosis, activated microglia, widespread neuronal pyknosis and decreased myelin were observed in contralateral striatum, and motor and somatosensory cortices.These results demonstrate focal ischemic stroke-induced pathological disturbances in ipsilateral, as well as in contralateral brain areas, which were shown to be closely associated with BBB breakdown in remote brain microvessels and endothelial autophagosome accumulation. This microvascular damage in subacute phase likely revealed ischemic diaschisis and should be considered in development of treatment strategies for stroke.

  6. Assistance dogs provide a useful behavioral model to enrich communicative skills of assistance robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gácsi, Márta; Szakadát, Sára; Miklósi, Adám

    2013-01-01

    These studies are part of a project aiming to reveal relevant aspects of human-dog interactions, which could serve as a model to design successful human-robot interactions. Presently there are no successfully commercialized assistance robots, however, assistance dogs work efficiently as partners for persons with disabilities. In Study 1, we analyzed the cooperation of 32 assistance dog-owner dyads performing a carrying task. We revealed typical behavior sequences and also differences depending on the dyads' experiences and on whether the owner was a wheelchair user. In Study 2, we investigated dogs' responses to unforeseen difficulties during a retrieving task in two contexts. Dogs displayed specific communicative and displacement behaviors, and a strong commitment to execute the insoluble task. Questionnaire data from Study 3 confirmed that these behaviors could successfully attenuate owners' disappointment. Although owners anticipated the technical competence of future assistance robots to be moderate/high, they could not imagine robots as emotional companions, which negatively affected their acceptance ratings of future robotic assistants. We propose that assistance dogs' cooperative behaviors and problem solving strategies should inspire the development of the relevant functions and social behaviors of assistance robots with limited manual and verbal skills.

  7. Directed evolution of a model primordial enzyme provides insights into the development of the genetic code.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel M Müller

    Full Text Available The contemporary proteinogenic repertoire contains 20 amino acids with diverse functional groups and side chain geometries. Primordial proteins, in contrast, were presumably constructed from a subset of these building blocks. Subsequent expansion of the proteinogenic alphabet would have enhanced their capabilities, fostering the metabolic prowess and organismal fitness of early living systems. While the addition of amino acids bearing innovative functional groups directly enhances the chemical repertoire of proteomes, the inclusion of chemically redundant monomers is difficult to rationalize. Here, we studied how a simplified chorismate mutase evolves upon expanding its amino acid alphabet from nine to potentially 20 letters. Continuous evolution provided an enhanced enzyme variant that has only two point mutations, both of which extend the alphabet and jointly improve protein stability by >4 kcal/mol and catalytic activity tenfold. The same, seemingly innocuous substitutions (Ile→Thr, Leu→Val occurred in several independent evolutionary trajectories. The increase in fitness they confer indicates that building blocks with very similar side chain structures are highly beneficial for fine-tuning protein structure and function.

  8. The importance of dynamic stall in aerodynamic modeling of the Darrieus rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraunie, P.; Beguier, C.; Paraschivoiu, I.

    The CAARDEX program is defined for analyzing the behavior of Darrieus wind turbines in terms of the Reynolds number, the geometrical characteristics of the wind turbine and the spreading of the stream tubes traversing the rotor volume. It is demonstrated that the maximum power conversion efficiency of the Darrieus rotor is 0.4, with the energy capture being divided at a 4:1 ratio upstream to downstream rotor. The model shows that the velocity induced on the rotor is a function of the specific velocity and solidity, and that previous stream tube theories are valid only at low values of these parameters. CARDAAX treats the rotor disk in terms of horizontal slices of stream tubes modeled separately for the upstream and downstream segments. Account is taken of the velocity profile in the atmospheric boundary layer, which can vary significantly in the case of large wind turbines, i.e., several hundred feet high. When applied to predicting the performance of a 1 kW, 2.6 m diam prototype Darrieus wind turbine in a 10 mps flow, fair agreement is obtained for power capture/wind velocity and cyclic aerodynamic forces. Additional flow visualization data is provided to illustrate the production of turbulence in the form of vortices shed between the blades.

  9. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  10. A network model shows the importance of coupled processes in the microbial N cycle in the Cape Fear River Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, David E.; Lisa, Jessica A.; Song, Bongkeun; Tobias, Craig R.; Borrett, Stuart R.

    2012-06-01

    Estuaries serve important ecological and economic functions including habitat provision and the removal of nutrients. Eutrophication can overwhelm the nutrient removal capacity of estuaries and poses a widely recognized threat to the health and function of these ecosystems. Denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) are microbial processes responsible for the removal of fixed nitrogen and diminish the effects of eutrophication. Both of these microbial removal processes can be influenced by direct inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen substrates or supported by microbial interactions with other nitrogen transforming pathways such as nitrification and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA). The coupling of nitrogen removal pathways to other transformation pathways facilitates the removal of some forms of inorganic nitrogen; however, differentiating between direct and coupled nitrogen removal is difficult. Network modeling provides a tool to examine interactions among microbial nitrogen cycling processes and to determine the within-system history of nitrogen involved in denitrification and anammox. To examine the coupling of nitrogen cycling processes, we built a nitrogen budget mass balance network model in two adjacent 1 cm3 sections of bottom water and sediment in the oligohaline portion of the Cape Fear River Estuary, NC, USA. Pathway, flow, and environ ecological network analyses were conducted to characterize the organization of nitrogen flow in the estuary and to estimate the coupling of nitrification to denitrification and of nitrification and DNRA to anammox. Centrality analysis indicated NH4+ is the most important form of nitrogen involved in removal processes. The model analysis further suggested that direct denitrification and coupled nitrification-denitrification had similar contributions to nitrogen removal while direct anammox was dominant to coupled forms of anammox. Finally, results also indicated that partial

  11. Applying volumetric weather radar data for rainfall runoff modeling: The importance of error correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Delobbe, L.; Weerts, A.; Reggiani, P.

    2009-04-01

    In the current study half a year of volumetric radar data for the period October 1, 2002 until March 31, 2003 is being analyzed which was sampled at 5 minutes intervals by C-band Doppler radar situated at an elevation of 600 m in the southern Ardennes region, Belgium. During this winter half year most of the rainfall has a stratiform character. Though radar and raingauge will never sample the same amount of rainfall due to differences in sampling strategies, for these stratiform situations differences between both measuring devices become even larger due to the occurrence of a bright band (the point where ice particles start to melt intensifying the radar reflectivity measurement). For these circumstances the radar overestimates the amount of precipitation and because in the Ardennes bright bands occur within 1000 meter from the surface, it's detrimental effects on the performance of the radar can already be observed at relatively close range (e.g. within 50 km). Although the radar is situated at one of the highest points in the region, very close to the radar clutter is a serious problem. As a result both nearby and farther away, using uncorrected radar results in serious errors when estimating the amount of precipitation. This study shows the effect of carefully correcting for these radar errors using volumetric radar data, taking into account the vertical reflectivity profile of the atmosphere, the effects of attenuation and trying to limit the amount of clutter. After applying these correction algorithms, the overall differences between radar and raingauge are much smaller which emphasizes the importance of carefully correcting radar rainfall measurements. The next step is to assess the effect of using uncorrected and corrected radar measurements on rainfall-runoff modeling. The 1597 km2 Ourthe catchment lies within 60 km of the radar. Using a lumped hydrological model serious improvement in simulating observed discharges is found when using corrected radar

  12. TELMISARATAN PROVIDES BETTER RENAL PROTECTION THAN VALSARTAN IN A RAT MODEL OF METABOLIC SYNDROME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Abdul Hye; Imig, John D.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Angiotension receptor blockers (ARB), telmisartan and valsartan were compared for renal protection in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) fed high fat diet. We hypothesized that in cardiometabolic syndrome, telmisartan an ARB with PPAR-γ activity will offer better renal protection. METHODS SHR were fed either normal (SHR-NF, 7% fat) or high fat (SHR-HF, 36% fat) diet and treated with an ARB for 10 weeks. RESULTS Blood pressure was similar between SHR-NF (190±3 mmHg) and SHR-HF (192±4 mmHg) at the end of the 10 week period. Telmisartan and valsartan decreased blood pressure to similar extents in SHR-NF and SHR-HF groups. Body weight was significantly higher in SHR-HF (368±5g) compared to SHR-NF (328±7g). Telmisartan but not valsartan significantly reduced the body weight gain in SHR-HF. Telmisartan was also more effective than valsartan in improving glycemic and lipid status in SHR-HF. Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), an inflammatory marker, was higher in SHR-HF (24±2 ng/d) compared to SHR-NF (14±5 ng/d). Telmisartan reduced MCP-1 excretion in both SHR-HF and SHR-NF to a greater extent than valsartan. An indicator of renal injury, urinary albumin excretion increased to 85±8 mg/d in SHR-HF compared to 54±9 mg/d in SHR-NF. Telmisartan (23±5 mg/d) was more effective than valsartan (45±3 mg/d) in lowering urinary albumin excretion in SHR-HF. Moreover, telmisartan reduced glomerular damage to a greater extent than valsartan in the SHR-HF. CONCLUSIONS Collectively, our data demonstrate that telmisartan was more effective than valsartan in reducing body weight gain, renal inflammation, and renal injury in a rat model of cardiometabolic syndrome. PMID:21415842

  13. Overlapping gene expression profiles of model compounds provide opportunities for immunotoxicity screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baken, Kirsten A.; Pennings, Jeroen L.A.; Jonker, Martijs J.; Schaap, Mirjam M.; Vries, Annemieke de; Steeg, Harry van; Breit, Timo M.; Loveren, Henk van

    2008-01-01

    In order to investigate immunotoxic effects of a set of model compounds in mice, a toxicogenomics approach was combined with information on macroscopical and histopathological effects on spleens and on modulation of immune function. Bis(tri-n-butyltin)oxide (TBTO), cyclosporin A (CsA), and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) were administered to C57BL/6 mice at immunosuppressive dose levels. Acetaminophen (APAP) was included in the study since indications of immunomodulating properties of this compound have appeared in the literature. TBTO exposure caused the most pronounced effect on gene expression and also resulted in the most severe reduction of body weight gain and induction of splenic irregularities. All compounds caused inhibition of cell division in the spleen as shown by microarray analysis as well as by suppression of lymphocyte proliferation after application of a contact sensitizer as demonstrated in an immune function assay that was adapted from the local lymph node assay. The immunotoxicogenomics approach applied in this study thus pointed to immunosuppression through cell cycle arrest as a common mechanism of action of immunotoxicants, including APAP. Genes related to cell division such as Ccna2, Brca1, Birc5, Incenp, and Cdkn1a (p21) were identified as candidate genes to indicate anti-proliferative effects of xenobiotics in immune cells for future screening assays. The results of our experiments also show the value of group wise pathway analysis for detection of more subtle transcriptional effects and the potency of evaluation of effects in the spleen to demonstrate immunotoxicity

  14. Importance-truncated no-core shell model for fermionic many-body systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spies, Helena

    2017-03-15

    The exact solution of quantum mechanical many-body problems is only possible for few particles. Therefore, numerical methods were developed in the fields of quantum physics and quantum chemistry for larger particle numbers. Configuration Interaction (CI) methods or the No-Core Shell Model (NCSM) allow ab initio calculations for light and intermediate-mass nuclei, without resorting to phenomenology. An extension of the NCSM is the Importance-Truncated No-Core Shell Model, which uses an a priori selection of the most important basis states. The importance truncation was first developed and applied in quantum chemistry in the 1970s and latter successfully applied to models of light and intermediate mass nuclei. Other numerical methods for calculations for ultra-cold fermionic many-body systems are the Fixed-Node Diffusion Monte Carlo method (FN-DMC) and the stochastic variational approach with Correlated Gaussian basis functions (CG). There are also such method as the Coupled-Cluster method, Green's Function Monte Carlo (GFMC) method, et cetera, used for calculation of many-body systems. In this thesis, we adopt the IT-NCSM for the calculation of ultra-cold Fermi gases at unitarity. Ultracold gases are dilute, strongly correlated systems, in which the average interparticle distance is much larger than the range of the interaction. Therefore, the detailed radial dependence of the potential is not resolved, and the potential can be replaced by an effective contact interaction. At low energy, s-wave scattering dominates and the interaction can be described by the s-wave scattering length. If the scattering length is small and negative, Cooper-pairs are formed in the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) regime. If the scattering length is small and positive, these Cooper-pairs become strongly bound molecules in a Bose-Einstein-Condensate (BEC). In between (for large scattering lengths) is the unitary limit with universal properties. Calculations of the energy spectra

  15. Multivariate Models of Parent-Late Adolescent Gender Dyads: The Importance of Parenting Processes in Predicting Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Cliff; Renk, Kimberly

    2008-01-01

    Although parent-adolescent interactions have been examined, relevant variables have not been integrated into a multivariate model. As a result, this study examined a multivariate model of parent-late adolescent gender dyads in an attempt to capture important predictors in late adolescents' important and unique transition to adulthood. The sample…

  16. The importance of shared mental models and shared situation awareness for transforming robots from tools to teammates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ososky, Scott; Schuster, David; Jentsch, Florian; Fiore, Stephen; Shumaker, Randall; Lebiere, Christian; Kurup, Unmesh; Oh, Jean; Stentz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    Current ground robots are largely employed via tele-operation and provide their operators with useful tools to extend reach, improve sensing, and avoid dangers. To move from robots that are useful as tools to truly synergistic human-robot teaming, however, will require not only greater technical capabilities among robots, but also a better understanding of the ways in which the principles of teamwork can be applied from exclusively human teams to mixed teams of humans and robots. In this respect, a core characteristic that enables successful human teams to coordinate shared tasks is their ability to create, maintain, and act on a shared understanding of the world and the roles of the team and its members in it. The team performance literature clearly points towards two important cornerstones for shared understanding of team members: mental models and situation awareness. These constructs have been investigated as products of teams as well; amongst teams, they are shared mental models and shared situation awareness. Consequently, we are studying how these two constructs can be measured and instantiated in human-robot teams. In this paper, we report results from three related efforts that are investigating process and performance outcomes for human robot teams. Our investigations include: (a) how human mental models of tasks and teams change whether a teammate is human, a service animal, or an advanced automated system; (b) how computer modeling can lead to mental models being instantiated and used in robots; (c) how we can simulate the interactions between human and future robotic teammates on the basis of changes in shared mental models and situation assessment.

  17. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  18. Adaptive Annealed Importance Sampling for Multimodal Posterior Exploration and Model Selection with Application to Extrasolar Planet Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin

    2014-07-01

    We describe an algorithm that can adaptively provide mixture summaries of multimodal posterior distributions. The parameter space of the involved posteriors ranges in size from a few dimensions to dozens of dimensions. This work was motivated by an astrophysical problem called extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, wherein the computation of stochastic integrals that are required for Bayesian model comparison is challenging. The difficulty comes from the highly nonlinear models that lead to multimodal posterior distributions. We resort to importance sampling (IS) to estimate the integrals, and thus translate the problem to be how to find a parametric approximation of the posterior. To capture the multimodal structure in the posterior, we initialize a mixture proposal distribution and then tailor its parameters elaborately to make it resemble the posterior to the greatest extent possible. We use the effective sample size (ESS) calculated based on the IS draws to measure the degree of approximation. The bigger the ESS is, the better the proposal resembles the posterior. A difficulty within this tailoring operation lies in the adjustment of the number of mixing components in the mixture proposal. Brute force methods just preset it as a large constant, which leads to an increase in the required computational resources. We provide an iterative delete/merge/add process, which works in tandem with an expectation-maximization step to tailor such a number online. The efficiency of our proposed method is tested via both simulation studies and real exoplanet data analysis.

  19. Evaluating the importance of characterizing soil structure and horizons in parameterizing a hydrologic process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating the influence of soil structure and horizons into parameterizations of distributed surface water/groundwater models remains a challenge. Often, only a single soil unit is employed, and soil-hydraulic properties are assigned based on textural classification, without evaluating the potential impact of these simplifications. This study uses a distributed physics-based model to assess the influence of soil horizons and structure on effective parameterization. This paper tests the viability of two established and widely used hydrogeologic methods for simulating runoff and variably saturated flow through layered soils: (1) accounting for vertical heterogeneity by combining hydrostratigraphic units with contrasting hydraulic properties into homogeneous, anisotropic units and (2) use of established pedotransfer functions based on soil texture alone to estimate water retention and conductivity, without accounting for the influence of pedon structures and hysteresis. The viability of this latter method for capturing the seasonal transition from runoff-dominated to evapotranspiration-dominated regimes is also tested here. For cases tested here, event-based simulations using simplified vertical heterogeneity did not capture the state-dependent anisotropy and complex combinations of runoff generation mechanisms resulting from permeability contrasts in layered hillslopes with complex topography. Continuous simulations using pedotransfer functions that do not account for the influence of soil structure and hysteresis generally over-predicted runoff, leading to propagation of substantial water balance errors. Analysis suggests that identifying a dominant hydropedological unit provides the most acceptable simplification of subsurface layering and that modified pedotransfer functions with steeper soil-water retention curves might adequately capture the influence of soil structure and hysteresis on hydrologic response in headwater catchments.

  20. The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Laaksonen, Pekka

    2011-01-01

    Laaksonen, Pekka The eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers: Knowledge Manage-ment across the Sourcing Life-cycle Jyväskylä: Jyväskylän yliopisto, 2011, 42 s. Tietojärjestelmätiede, kandidaatintutkielma Ohjaaja(t): Käkölä, Timo Tässä kandidaatintutkielmassa selvitettiin sitä, miten the eSourcing Capability Model for Service Providers-mallin käytännöt (practices) ovat liittyneet tietä-myksenhallinnan neljään prosessiin: tiedon luominen, varastointi/noutaminen, jakamine...

  1. A simple simulation model as a tool to assess alternative health care provider payment reform options in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cashin, Cheryl; Phuong, Nguyen Khanh; Shain, Ryan; Oanh, Tran Thi Mai; Thuy, Nguyen Thi

    2015-01-01

    Vietnam is currently considering a revision of its 2008 Health Insurance Law, including the regulation of provider payment methods. This study uses a simple spreadsheet-based, micro-simulation model to analyse the potential impacts of different provider payment reform scenarios on resource allocation across health care providers in three provinces in Vietnam, as well as on the total expenditure of the provincial branches of the public health insurance agency (Provincial Social Security [PSS]). The results show that currently more than 50% of PSS spending is concentrated at the provincial level with less than half at the district level. There is also a high degree of financial risk on district hospitals with the current fund-holding arrangement. Results of the simulation model show that several alternative scenarios for provider payment reform could improve the current payment system by reducing the high financial risk currently borne by district hospitals without dramatically shifting the current level and distribution of PSS expenditure. The results of the simulation analysis provided an empirical basis for health policy-makers in Vietnam to assess different provider payment reform options and make decisions about new models to support health system objectives.

  2. The importance of connexin hemichannels during chondroprogenitor cell differentiation in hydrogel versus microtissue culture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrobback, Karsten; Klein, Travis Jacob; Woodfield, Tim B F

    2015-06-01

    Appropriate selection of scaffold architecture is a key challenge in cartilage tissue engineering. Gap junction-mediated intercellular contacts play important roles in precartilage condensation of mesenchymal cells. However, scaffold architecture could potentially restrict cell-cell communication and differentiation. This is particularly important when choosing the appropriate culture platform as well as scaffold-based strategy for clinical translation, that is, hydrogel or microtissues, for investigating differentiation of chondroprogenitor cells in cartilage tissue engineering. We, therefore, studied the influence of gap junction-mediated cell-cell communication on chondrogenesis of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BM-MSCs) and articular chondrocytes. Expanded human chondrocytes and BM-MSCs were either (re-) differentiated in micromass cell pellets or encapsulated as isolated cells in alginate hydrogels. Samples were treated with and without the gap junction inhibitor 18-α glycyrrhetinic acid (18αGCA). DNA and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and gene expression levels (collagen I/II/X, aggrecan, and connexin 43) were quantified at various time points. Protein localization was determined using immunofluorescence, and adenosine-5'-triphosphate (ATP) was measured in conditioned media. While GAG/DNA was higher in alginate compared with pellets for chondrocytes, there were no differences in chondrogenic gene expression between culture models. Gap junction blocking reduced collagen II and extracellular ATP in all chondrocyte cultures and in BM-MSC hydrogels. However, differentiation capacity was not abolished completely by 18αGCA. Connexin 43 levels were high throughout chondrocyte cultures and peaked only later during BM-MSC differentiation, consistent with the delayed response of BM-MSCs to 18αGCA. Alginate hydrogels and microtissues are equally suited culture platforms for the chondrogenic (re-)differentiation of expanded human articular

  3. Economic and Social Models in Europe and the Importance of Reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Heipertz

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on European economic and social models. It provides a comparative assessment of fiscal and regulatory policies in 17 industrialised countries (the EU15, US and Japan and presents the records of these countries in attaining key economic and social objectives. Social and economic systems that feature efficient public sectors and flexible market structures tend to experience reasonably sustainable public finances, high economic growth, education standards and employment, and well-functioning markets. Anglo-Saxon countries broadly fit this mould, albeit, seemingly, at some cost of income equality. A more pronounced emphasis on welfare state policies and the corresponding relatively high levels of public spending bring benefit to income distribution in the Nordic countries while the resulting inefficiencies in their economies are counterbalanced by flexibility in labour and particularly product markets. Also, a number of reform-minded European countries have improved their fiscal and regulatory policies while significantly enhancing the functioning of markets, fiscal sustainability and economic performance. This was generally attained without jeopardising social objectives. On the other hand, those continental and Mediterranean countries that maintain market inefficiencies and at the same time sustain expensive and inefficient welfare states generally suffer from low growth and employment and less well-functioning markets and face serious risks to their economies’ fiscal sustainability. The findings of this note support calls for the comprehensive reform of fiscal policies, as well as of product and labour markets.

  4. Creation of a Collaborative Disaster Preparedness Video for Daycare Providers: Use of the Delphi Model for the Creation of a Comprehensive Disaster Preparedness Video for Daycare Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, Pamela; Spears, Robert; Reeb, Jeffrey; Thompson, Sarah B; Myers, Paul; Burke, Rita V

    2018-02-22

    Eight million American children under the age of 5 attend daycare and more than another 50 million American children are in school or daycare settings. Emergency planning requirements for daycare licensing vary by state. Expert opinions were used to create a disaster preparedness video designed for daycare providers to cover a broad spectrum of scenarios. Various stakeholders (17) devised the outline for an educational pre-disaster video for child daycare providers using the Delphi technique. Fleiss κ values were obtained for consensus data. A 20-minute video was created, addressing the physical, psychological, and legal needs of children during and after a disaster. Viewers completed an anonymous survey to evaluate topic comprehension. A consensus was attempted on all topics, ranging from elements for inclusion to presentation format. The Fleiss κ value of 0.07 was obtained. Fifty-seven of the total 168 video viewers completed the 10-question survey, with comprehension scores ranging from 72% to 100%. Evaluation of caregivers that viewed our video supports understanding of video contents. Ultimately, the technique used to create and disseminate the resources may serve as a template for others providing pre-disaster planning education. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 5).

  5. Policy options for alcohol price regulation: the importance of modelling population heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Petra Sylvia; Purshouse, Robin; Brennan, Alan

    2010-03-01

    Context and aims Internationally, the repertoire of alcohol pricing policies has expanded to include targeted taxation, inflation-linked taxation, taxation based on alcohol-by-volume (ABV), minimum pricing policies (general or targeted), bans of below-cost selling and restricting price-based promotions. Policy makers clearly need to consider how options compare in reducing harms at the population level, but are also required to demonstrate proportionality of their actions, which necessitates a detailed understanding of policy effects on different population subgroups. This paper presents selected findings from a policy appraisal for the UK government and discusses the importance of accounting for population heterogeneity in such analyses. Method We have built a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model which takes account of differential preferences by population subgroups defined by age, gender and level of drinking (moderate, hazardous, harmful). We consider purchasing preferences in terms of the types and volumes of alcoholic beverages, prices paid and the balance between bars, clubs and restaurants as opposed to supermarkets and off-licenses. Results Age, sex and level of drinking fundamentally affect beverage preferences, drinking location, prices paid, price sensitivity and tendency to substitute for other beverage types. Pricing policies vary in their impact on different product types, price points and venues, thus having distinctly different effects on subgroups. Because population subgroups also have substantially different risk profiles for harms, policies are differentially effective in reducing health, crime, work-place absence and unemployment harms. Conclusion Policy appraisals must account for population heterogeneity and complexity if resulting interventions are to be well considered, proportionate, effective and cost-effective.

  6. Investigating Effective Components of Higher Education Marketing and Providing a Marketing Model for Iranian Private Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmaee, Roya Babaee; Nadi, Mohammad Ali; Shahtalebi, Badri

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the effective components of higher education marketing and providing a marketing model for Iranian higher education private sector institutions. Design/methodology/approach: This study is a qualitative research. For identifying the effective components of higher education marketing and…

  7. Bio-Spectroscopic Imaging Provides Evidence of Hippocampal Zn Deficiency and Decreased Lipid Unsaturation in an Accelerated Ageing Mouse Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fimognari, Nicholas; Hollings, Ashley; Lam, Virginie; Tidy, Rebecca J; Kewish, Cameron M; Albrecht, Matthew A; Takechi, Ryu; Mamo, John C L; Hackett, Mark J

    2018-06-14

    Western society is facing a health epidemic due to the increasing incidence of dementia in ageing populations, and there are still few effective diagnostic methods, minimal treatment options, and no cure. Ageing is the greatest risk factor for memory loss that occurs during the natural ageing process, as well as being the greatest risk factor for neurodegenerative disease such as Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, greater understanding of the biochemical pathways that drive a healthy ageing brain towards dementia (pathological ageing or Alzheimer's disease), is required to accelerate the development of improved diagnostics and therapies. Unfortunately, many animal models of dementia model chronic amyloid precursor protein over-expression, which although highly relevant to mechanisms of amyloidosis and familial Alzheimer's disease, does not model well dementia during the natural ageing process. A promising animal model reported to model mechanisms of accelerated natural ageing and memory impairments, is the senescence accelerated murine prone strain 8 (SAMP8), which has been adopted by many research group to study the biochemical transitions that occur during brain ageing. A limitation to traditional methods of biochemical characterisation is that many important biochemical and elemental markers (lipid saturation, lactate, transition metals) cannot be imaged at meso- or micro-spatial resolution. Therefore, in this investigation we report the first multi-modal biospectroscopic characterisation of the SAMP8 model, and have identified important biochemical and elemental alterations, and co-localisations, between 4 month old SAMP8 mice and the relevant control (SAMR1) mice. Specifically, we demonstrate direct evidence of altered metabolism and disturbed lipid homeostasis within corpus callosum white matter, in addition to localised hippocampal metal deficiencies, in the accelerated ageing phenotype. Such findings have important implication for future research aimed at

  8. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  9. Differential Associations and Daily Smoking of Adolescents: The Importance of Same-Sex Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofziger, Stacey; Lee, Hye-Ryeon

    2006-01-01

    This article examines whether the importance of parents, siblings, best friends, and romantic interests are sex-specific in predicting daily juvenile smoking. Juveniles who smoke daily are strongly influenced by prosmoking attitudes and behaviors of same-sex family members. However, peers remain the most important associations in predicting daily…

  10. Permutation importance: a corrected feature importance measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altmann, André; Toloşi, Laura; Sander, Oliver; Lengauer, Thomas

    2010-05-15

    In life sciences, interpretability of machine learning models is as important as their prediction accuracy. Linear models are probably the most frequently used methods for assessing feature relevance, despite their relative inflexibility. However, in the past years effective estimators of feature relevance have been derived for highly complex or non-parametric models such as support vector machines and RandomForest (RF) models. Recently, it has been observed that RF models are biased in such a way that categorical variables with a large number of categories are preferred. In this work, we introduce a heuristic for normalizing feature importance measures that can correct the feature importance bias. The method is based on repeated permutations of the outcome vector for estimating the distribution of measured importance for each variable in a non-informative setting. The P-value of the observed importance provides a corrected measure of feature importance. We apply our method to simulated data and demonstrate that (i) non-informative predictors do not receive significant P-values, (ii) informative variables can successfully be recovered among non-informative variables and (iii) P-values computed with permutation importance (PIMP) are very helpful for deciding the significance of variables, and therefore improve model interpretability. Furthermore, PIMP was used to correct RF-based importance measures for two real-world case studies. We propose an improved RF model that uses the significant variables with respect to the PIMP measure and show that its prediction accuracy is superior to that of other existing models. R code for the method presented in this article is available at http://www.mpi-inf.mpg.de/ approximately altmann/download/PIMP.R CONTACT: altmann@mpi-inf.mpg.de, laura.tolosi@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  11. THE POLISH BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR LANGUAGE SERVICE PROVIDERS IN VIEW OF THE PORTER’S FIVE FORCES MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Kowalska, Monika

    2014-01-01

    After the Polish accession to the European Union in 2004, language services have considerably grown in importance. Intensive contacts with foreign companies and institutions coupled with information technology developments have increased the role of English as a linguistic medium of international cooperation. The overall aim of this paper is to examine the Polish business environment for Language Service Providers (LSPs) offering specialized English courses and translation services (EN-PL and...

  12. AND/OR Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Gogate, Vibhav; Dechter, Rina

    2012-01-01

    The paper introduces AND/OR importance sampling for probabilistic graphical models. In contrast to importance sampling, AND/OR importance sampling caches samples in the AND/OR space and then extracts a new sample mean from the stored samples. We prove that AND/OR importance sampling may have lower variance than importance sampling; thereby providing a theoretical justification for preferring it over importance sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that AND/OR importance sampling is ...

  13. BAD knockout provides metabolic seizure resistance in a genetic model of epilepsy with sudden unexplained death in epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Jeannine; Burnham, Veronica; Tedoldi, Meghan; Danial, Nika N; Yellen, Gary

    2018-01-01

    Metabolic alteration, either through the ketogenic diet (KD) or by genetic alteration of the BAD protein, can produce seizure protection in acute chemoconvulsant models of epilepsy. To assess the seizure-protective role of knocking out (KO) the Bad gene in a chronic epilepsy model, we used the Kcna1 -/- model of epilepsy, which displays progressively increased seizure severity and recapitulates the early death seen in sudden unexplained death in epilepsy (SUDEP). Beginning on postnatal day 24 (P24), we continuously video monitored Kcna1 -/- and Kcna1 -/- Bad -/- double knockout mice to assess survival and seizure severity. We found that Kcna1 -/- Bad -/- mice outlived Kcna1 -/- mice by approximately 2 weeks. Kcna1 -/- Bad -/- mice also spent significantly less time in seizure than Kcna1 -/- mice on P24 and the day of death, showing that BadKO provides seizure resistance in a genetic model of chronic epilepsy. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

  14. Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  15. Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

    2018-04-01

    Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated

  16. Influence of biodiesel blending on physicochemical properties and importance of mathematical model for predicting the properties of biodiesel blend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakil, M.A.; Kalam, M.A.; Masjuki, H.H.; Atabani, A.E.; Rizwanul Fattah, I.M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Short identification of selected biodiesel feedstock. • Review of physicochemical properties for blended biodiesel. • Mathematical model for predicting properties of various biodiesel blends. - Abstract: The growing demand for green world serves as one of the most significant challenges of modernization. Requirements like largest usage of energy for modern society as well as demand for friendly milieu create a deep concern in field of research. Biofuels are placed at the peak of the research arena for their underlying benefits as mentioned by multiple researches. Out of a number of vegetable oils, only a few are used commercially for biodiesel production. Due to various limitations of edible oil, non-edible oils are becoming a profitable choice. Till today, very little percentage of biodiesel is used successfully in engine. The research is still continuing for improving the biodiesel usage level. Recently, it is found that the blended biodiesel from more than one feedstock provides better performance in engine. This paper reviews the physicochemical properties of different biodiesel blends obtained from various feedstocks with a view to properly understand the fuel quality. Moreover, a short description of each feedstock is given along with graphical presentation of important properties for various blend percentages from B0 to B100. Finally, mathematical model is formed for predicting various properties of biodiesel blend with the help of different research data by using polynomial curve fitting method. The results obtained from a number of literature based on this work shows that the heating value of biodiesel is about 11% lower than diesel except coconut (14.5% lower) whereas kinematic viscosity is in the range of 4–5.4 mm 2 /s. Flash point of all biodiesels are more than 150 °C, except neem and coconut. Cold flow properties of calophyllum, palm, jatropha, moringa are inferior to others. This would help to determine important properties of

  17. [Barriers to the normalization of telemedicine in a healthcare system model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig, Francesc; Saigí, Francesc

    2011-01-01

    Despite the clear political will to promote telemedicine and the large number of initiatives, the incorporation of this modality in clinical practice remains limited. The objective of this study was to identify the barriers perceived by key professionals who actively participate in the design and implementation of telemedicine in a healthcare system model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts. We performed a qualitative study based on data from semi-structured interviews with 17 key informants belonging to distinct Catalan health organizations. The barriers identified were grouped in four areas: technological, organizational, human and economic. The main barriers identified were changes in the healthcare model caused by telemedicine, problems with strategic alignment, resistance to change in the (re)definition of roles, responsibilities and new skills, and lack of a business model that incorporates telemedicine in the services portfolio to ensure its sustainability. In addition to suitable management of change and of the necessary strategic alignment, the definitive normalization of telemedicine in a mixed healthcare model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts requires a clear and stable business model that incorporates this modality in the services portfolio and allows healthcare organizations to obtain reimbursement from the payer. 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  18. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

    2006-08-01

    We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

  19. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

    2011-01-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

  20. On conditions and parameters important to model sensitivity for unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prindle, R.W.; Hopkins, P.L.

    1990-10-01

    The Hydrologic Code Intercomparison Project (HYDROCOIN) was formed to evaluate hydrogeologic models and computer codes and their use in performance assessment for high-level radioactive-waste repositories. This report describes the results of a study for HYDROCOIN of model sensitivity for isothermal, unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuffs. We investigated both the types of flow behavior that dominate the performance measures and the conditions and model parameters that control flow behavior. We also examined the effect of different conceptual models and modeling approaches on our understanding of system behavior. The analyses included single- and multiple-parameter variations about base cases in one-dimensional steady and transient flow and in two-dimensional steady flow. The flow behavior is complex even for the highly simplified and constrained system modeled here. The response of the performance measures is both nonlinear and nonmonotonic. System behavior is dominated by abrupt transitions from matrix to fracture flow and by lateral diversion of flow. The observed behaviors are strongly influenced by the imposed boundary conditions and model constraints. Applied flux plays a critical role in determining the flow type but interacts strongly with the composite-conductivity curves of individual hydrologic units and with the stratigraphy. One-dimensional modeling yields conservative estimates of distributions of groundwater travel time only under very limited conditions. This study demonstrates that it is wrong to equate the shortest possible water-travel path with the fastest path from the repository to the water table. 20 refs., 234 figs., 10 tabs

  1. Individual Change and the Timing and Onset of Important Life Events: Methods, Models, and Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin; Marcoulides, Katerina

    2016-01-01

    Researchers are often interested in studying how the timing of a specific event affects concurrent and future development. When faced with such research questions there are multiple statistical models to consider and those models are the focus of this paper as well as their theoretical underpinnings and assumptions regarding the nature of the…

  2. Conceptual Resources in Self-Developed Explanatory Models: The Importance of Integrating Conscious and Intuitive Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Meng-Fei; Brown, David E.

    2010-01-01

    This study explores the spontaneous explanatory models children construct, critique, and revise in the context of tasks in which children need to predict, observe, and explain phenomena involving magnetism. It further investigates what conceptual resources students use, and in what ways they use them, to construct explanatory models, and the…

  3. Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

  4. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  5. Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

    2015-01-01

    Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

  6. An Integral Model to Provide Reactive and Proactive Services in an Academic CSIRT Based on Business Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Walter Fuertes; Francisco Reyes; Paúl Valladares; Freddy Tapia; Theofilos Toulkeridis; Ernesto Pérez

    2017-01-01

    Cyber-attacks have increased in severity and complexity. That requires, that the CERT/CSIRT research and develops new security tools. Therefore, our study focuses on the design of an integral model based on Business Intelligence (BI), which provides reactive and proactive services in a CSIRT, in order to alert and reduce any suspicious or malicious activity on information systems and data networks. To achieve this purpose, a solution has been assembled, that generates information stores, bein...

  7. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Robert E. Keane; Ross A. Bradstock; Ian D. Davies; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; Kimberley A. Logan; Russell A. Parsons

    2009-01-01

    The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFE, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEMLAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets...

  8. On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

  9. The Importance of Pressure Sampling Frequency in Models for Determination of Critical Wave Loadingson Monolithic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Meinert, Palle

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the influence of wave load sampling frequency on calculated sliding distance in an overall stability analysis of a monolithic caisson. It is demonstrated by a specific example of caisson design that for this kind of analyses the sampling frequency in a small scale model could...... be as low as 100 Hz in model scale. However, for design of structure elements like the wave wall on the top of a caisson the wave load sampling frequency must be much higher, in the order of 1000 Hz in the model. Elastic-plastic deformations of foundation and structure were not included in the analysis....

  10. Governance in Health - The Need for Exchange and Evidence Comment on "Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanturidze, Tata; Obermann, Konrad

    2016-05-17

    Governance in health is cited as one of the key factors in balancing the concerns of the government and public sector with the interests of civil society/private players, but often remains poorly described and operationalized. Richard Saltman and Antonio Duran look at two aspects in the search for new provider models in a context of health markets signalling liberalisation: (i) the role of the government to balance public and private interests and responsibilities in delivering care through modernised governance arrangements, and (ii) the finding that operational complexities may hinder well-designed provider governance models, unless governance reflects country-specific realities. This commentary builds on the discussion by Saltman and Duran, and argues that the concept of governance needs to be clearly defined and operationalized in order to be helpful for policy debate as well as for the development of an applicable framework for performance improvement. It provides a working definition of governance and includes a reflection on the prevailing cultural norms in an organization or society upon which any governance needs to be build. It proposes to explore whether the "evidence-based governance" concept can be introduced to generate knowledge about innovative and effective governance models, and concludes that studies similar to the one by Saltman and Duran can inform this debate. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  11. Importance of the Hydrogen Isocyanide Isomer in Modeling Hydrogen Cyanide Oxidation in Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glarborg, Peter; Marshall, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Hydrogen isocyanide (HNC) has been proposed as an important intermediate in oxidation of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in combustion, but details of its chemistry are still in discussion. At higher temperatures, HCN and HNC equilibrate rapidly, and being more reactive than HCN, HNC offers a fast alterna...... HNCO is the major consumption path for HCN. Under lean conditions, HNC is shown to be less important than indicated by the early work by Lin and co-workers, but it acts to accelerate HCN oxidation and promotes the formation of HNCO.......Hydrogen isocyanide (HNC) has been proposed as an important intermediate in oxidation of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in combustion, but details of its chemistry are still in discussion. At higher temperatures, HCN and HNC equilibrate rapidly, and being more reactive than HCN, HNC offers a fast...

  12. The SSI TOOLBOX Source Term Model SOSIM - Screening for important radionuclides and parameter sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila Moreno, R.; Barrdahl, R.; Haegg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The main objective of the present study was to carry out a screening and a sensitivity analysis of the SSI TOOLBOX source term model SOSIM. This model is a part of the SSI TOOLBOX for radiological impact assessment of the Swedish disposal concept for high-level waste KBS-3. The outputs of interest for this purpose were: the total released fraction, the time of total release, the time and value of maximum release rate, the dose rates after direct releases of the biosphere. The source term equations were derived and simple equations and methods were proposed for calculation of these. A literature survey has been performed in order to determine a characteristic variation range and a nominal value for each model parameter. In order to reduce the model uncertainties the authors recommend a change in the initial boundary condition for solution of the diffusion equation for highly soluble nuclides. 13 refs.

  13. Management modelling behaviour: An important prerequisite for the implementation of business ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. van Zyl

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Researchers agree that ethics and ethical behaviour have become two of the most important topics of the new millennium. Reasons for this can include changing business conditions as well as the growing public demand for quality services, reasonable prices and honest treatment. Furthermore, the present wave of corruption in South African business makes it important to focus on management-related factors that seem to influence employees’ decisions to behave ethically at work. These phenomena will be used as a basis to make practical suggestions on how to improve the situation.

  14. Emerging Business Models in Education Provisioning: A Case Study on Providing Learning Support as Education-as-a-Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loina Prifti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to give a deeper understanding on emerging business models in the context of education. Industry 4.0/the Industrial Internet in general and especially recent advances in cloud computing enable a new kind of service offering in the education sector and lead to new business models for education: Education-as-a-Service (EaaS. Within EaaS, learning, and teaching contents are delivered as services. By combining a literature review with a qualitative case study, this paper makes a three-fold contribution to the field of business models in education: First, we provide a theoretical definition for a common understanding of EaaS. Second, we present the state-of-the-art research on this new paradigm. Third, in the case study we describe a “best practices” business model of an existing EaaS provider. These insights build a theoretical foundation for further research in this area. The paper concludes with a research agenda for further research in this emerging field.

  15. A Mathematical Model of Metabolism and Regulation Provides a Systems-Level View of How Escherichia coli Responds to Oxygen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eEderer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The efficient redesign of bacteria for biotechnological purposes, such as biofuel production, waste disposal or specific biocatalytic functions, requires a quantitative systems-level understanding of energy supply, carbon and redox metabolism. The measurement of transcript levels, metabolite concentrations and metabolic fluxes per se gives an incomplete picture. An appreciation of the interdependencies between the different measurement values is essential for systems-level understanding. Mathematical modeling has the potential to provide a coherent and quantitative description of the interplay between gene expression, metabolite concentrations and metabolic fluxes. Escherichia coli undergoes major adaptations in central metabolism when the availability of oxygen changes. Thus, an integrated description of the oxygen response provides a benchmark of our understanding of carbon, energy and redox metabolism. We present the first comprehensive model of the central metabolism of E. coli that describes steady-state metabolism at different levels of oxygen availability. Variables of the model are metabolite concentrations, gene expression levels, transcription factor activities, metabolic fluxes and biomass concentration. We analyze the model with respect to the production capabilities of central metabolism of E. coli. In particular, we predict how precursor and biomass concentration are affected by product formation.

  16. The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiawei; Jacob, Daniel J.; Eastham, Sebastian D.

    2018-05-01

    Chemical plumes in the free troposphere can preserve their identity for more than a week as they are transported on intercontinental scales. Current global models cannot reproduce this transport. The plumes dilute far too rapidly due to numerical diffusion in sheared flow. We show how model accuracy can be limited by either horizontal resolution (Δx) or vertical resolution (Δz). Balancing horizontal and vertical numerical diffusion, and weighing computational cost, implies an optimal grid resolution ratio (Δx / Δz)opt ˜ 1000 for simulating the plumes. This is considerably higher than current global models (Δx / Δz ˜ 20) and explains the rapid plume dilution in the models as caused by insufficient vertical resolution. Plume simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (GFDL-FV3) over a range of horizontal and vertical grid resolutions confirm this limiting behavior. Our highest-resolution simulation (Δx ≈ 25 km, Δz ≈ 80 m) preserves the maximum mixing ratio in the plume to within 35 % after 8 days in strongly sheared flow, a drastic improvement over current models. Adding free tropospheric vertical levels in global models is computationally inexpensive and would also improve the simulation of water vapor.

  17. The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhuang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Chemical plumes in the free troposphere can preserve their identity for more than a week as they are transported on intercontinental scales. Current global models cannot reproduce this transport. The plumes dilute far too rapidly due to numerical diffusion in sheared flow. We show how model accuracy can be limited by either horizontal resolution (Δx or vertical resolution (Δz. Balancing horizontal and vertical numerical diffusion, and weighing computational cost, implies an optimal grid resolution ratio (Δx ∕ Δzopt ∼ 1000 for simulating the plumes. This is considerably higher than current global models (Δx ∕ Δz ∼ 20 and explains the rapid plume dilution in the models as caused by insufficient vertical resolution. Plume simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (GFDL-FV3 over a range of horizontal and vertical grid resolutions confirm this limiting behavior. Our highest-resolution simulation (Δx ≈ 25 km, Δz  ≈  80 m preserves the maximum mixing ratio in the plume to within 35 % after 8 days in strongly sheared flow, a drastic improvement over current models. Adding free tropospheric vertical levels in global models is computationally inexpensive and would also improve the simulation of water vapor.

  18. Determining Nurse Aide Staffing Requirements to Provide Care Based on Resident Workload: A Discrete Event Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnelle, John F; Schroyer, L Dale; Saraf, Avantika A; Simmons, Sandra F

    2016-11-01

    Nursing aides provide most of the labor-intensive activities of daily living (ADL) care to nursing home (NH) residents. Currently, most NHs do not determine nurse aide staffing requirements based on the time to provide ADL care for their unique resident population. The lack of an objective method to determine nurse aide staffing requirements suggests that many NHs could be understaffed in their capacity to provide consistent ADL care to all residents in need. Discrete event simulation (DES) mathematically models key work parameters (eg, time to provide an episode of care and available staff) to predict the ability of the work setting to provide care over time and offers an objective method to determine nurse aide staffing needs in NHs. This study had 2 primary objectives: (1) to describe the relationship between ADL workload and the level of nurse aide staffing reported by NHs; and, (2) to use a DES model to determine the relationship between ADL workload and nurse aide staffing necessary for consistent, timely ADL care. Minimum Data Set data related to the level of dependency on staff for ADL care for residents in over 13,500 NHs nationwide were converted into 7 workload categories that captured 98% of all residents. In addition, data related to the time to provide care for the ADLs within each workload category was used to calculate a workload score for each facility. The correlation between workload and reported nurse aide staffing levels was calculated to determine the association between staffing reported by NHs and workload. Simulations to project staffing requirements necessary to provide ADL care were then conducted for 65 different workload scenarios, which included 13 different nurse aide staffing levels (ranging from 1.6 to 4.0 total hours per resident day) and 5 different workload percentiles (ranging from the 5th to the 95th percentile). The purpose of the simulation model was to determine the staffing necessary to provide care within each workload

  19. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  20. A Hybrid Artificial Reputation Model Involving Interaction Trust, Witness Information and the Trust Model to Calculate the Trust Value of Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurdeep Singh Ransi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Agent interaction in a community, such as the online buyer-seller scenario, is often uncertain, as when an agent comes in contact with other agents they initially know nothing about each other. Currently, many reputation models are developed that help service consumers select better service providers. Reputation models also help agents to make a decision on who they should trust and transact with in the future. These reputation models are either built on interaction trust that involves direct experience as a source of information or they are built upon witness information also known as word-of-mouth that involves the reports provided by others. Neither the interaction trust nor the witness information models alone succeed in such uncertain interactions. In this paper we propose a hybrid reputation model involving both interaction trust and witness information to address the shortcomings of existing reputation models when taken separately. A sample simulation is built to setup buyer-seller services and uncertain interactions. Experiments reveal that the hybrid approach leads to better selection of trustworthy agents where consumers select more reputable service providers, eventually helping consumers obtain more gains. Furthermore, the trust model developed is used in calculating trust values of service providers.

  1. Some advances in importance sampling of reliability models based on zero variance approximation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.; Juneja, Sandeep

    We are interested in estimating, through simulation, the probability of entering a rare failure state before a regeneration state. Since this probability is typically small, we apply importance sampling. The method that we use is based on finding the most likely paths to failure. We present an

  2. On the importance of aerosol nitrate over Europe : data analysis and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaap, M.

    2003-01-01

    The central theme of this thesis is the nitrate content of aerosols (or particulate matter (PM)). Aerosols play an important role in the climate system by scattering and/or absorbing solar radiation. In the last decades research has been devoted to quantify the radiative forcing of aerosols

  3. Mechanical modelling quantifies the functional importance of outer tissue layers during root elongation and bending

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyson, Rosemary J; Vizcay-Barrena, Gema; Band, Leah R; Fernandes, Anwesha N; French, Andrew P; Fozard, John A; Hodgman, T Charlie; Kenobi, Kim; Pridmore, Tony P; Stout, Michael; Wells, Darren M; Wilson, Michael H; Bennett, Malcolm J; Jensen, Oliver E

    2014-01-01

    Root elongation and bending require the coordinated expansion of multiple cells of different types. These processes are regulated by the action of hormones that can target distinct cell layers. We use a mathematical model to characterise the influence of the biomechanical properties of individual cell walls on the properties of the whole tissue. Taking a simple constitutive model at the cell scale which characterises cell walls via yield and extensibility parameters, we derive the analogous tissue-level model to describe elongation and bending. To accurately parameterise the model, we take detailed measurements of cell turgor, cell geometries and wall thicknesses. The model demonstrates how cell properties and shapes contribute to tissue-level extensibility and yield. Exploiting the highly organised structure of the elongation zone (EZ) of the Arabidopsis root, we quantify the contributions of different cell layers, using the measured parameters. We show how distributions of material and geometric properties across the root cross-section contribute to the generation of curvature, and relate the angle of a gravitropic bend to the magnitude and duration of asymmetric wall softening. We quantify the geometric factors which lead to the predominant contribution of the outer cell files in driving root elongation and bending. PMID:24641449

  4. Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Vesk, Peter A; Liedloff, Adam; Wintle, Brendan A

    2015-08-01

    Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributional change under future climates have predominantly focused on changes in species distribution and ignored possible changes in spatial and temporal patterns of dominance. We develop forecasts of spatial changes for the distribution of species dominance, defined in terms of basal area, and for species occurrence, in response to sea level rise for three tree taxa within an extensive mangrove ecosystem in northern Australia. Three new metrics are provided, indicating the area expected to be suitable under future conditions (Eoccupied ), the instability of suitable area (Einstability ) and the overlap between the current and future spatial distribution (Eoverlap ). The current dominance and occurrence were modelled in relation to a set of environmental variables using boosted regression tree (BRT) models, under two scenarios of seedling establishment: unrestricted and highly restricted. While forecasts of spatial change were qualitatively similar for species occurrence and dominance, the models of species dominance exhibited higher metrics of model fit and predictive performance, and the spatial pattern of future dominance was less similar to the current pattern than was the case for the distributions of species occurrence. This highlights the possibility of greater changes in the spatial patterning of mangrove tree species dominance under future sea level rise. Under the restricted seedling establishment scenario, the area occupied by or dominated by a species declined between 42.1% and 93.8%, while for unrestricted seedling establishment, the area suitable for dominance or occurrence of each species varied from a decline of 68.4% to an expansion of 99.5%. As changes in the spatial patterning of dominance are likely to cause a cascade of effects throughout the ecosystem, forecasting spatial changes in dominance provides new and

  5. Modelling of Limestone Dissolution in Wet FGD Systems: The Importance of an Accurate Particle Size Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiil, Søren; Johnsson, Jan Erik; Dam-Johansen, Kim

    1999-01-01

    Danish limestone types with very different particle size distributions (PSDs). All limestones were of a high purity. Model predictions were found to be qualitatively in good agreement with experimental data without any use of adjustable parameters. Deviations between measurements and simulations were...... attributed primarily to the PSD measurements of the limestone particles, which were used as model inputs. The PSDs, measured using a laser diffrac-tion-based Malvern analyser, were probably not representative of the limestone samples because agglomeration phenomena took place when the particles were...

  6. Importance of atmospheric turbidity and associated uncertainties in solar radiation and luminous efficacy modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gueymard, Christian A.

    2005-01-01

    For many solar-related applications, it is important to separately predict the direct and diffuse components of irradiance or illuminance. Under clear skies, turbidity plays a determinant role in quantitatively affecting these components. In this paper, various aspects of the effect of turbidity on both spectral and broadband radiation are addressed, as well as the uncertainty in irradiance predictions due to inaccurate turbidity data, and the current improvements in obtaining the necessary turbidity data

  7. MODELING OF WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PARAMETERS AND THEIR PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE IN ENVIRONMENT ENGINEERING PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Trębicka

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The object of this study is to present a mathematical model of water-supply network and the analysis of basic parameters of water distribution system with a digital model. The reference area is Kleosin village, municipality Juchnowiec Kościelny in podlaskie province, located at the border with Białystok. The study focused on the significance of every change related to the quality and quantity of water delivered to WDS through modeling the basic parameters of water distribution system in different variants of work in order to specify new, more rational ways of exploitation (decrease in pressure value and to define conditions for development and modernization of the water-supply network, with special analysis of the scheme, in frames of specification of the most dangerous places in the network. The analyzed processes are based on copying and developing the existing state of water distribution sub-system (the WDS with the use of mathematical modeling that includes the newest accessible computer techniques.

  8. Modelling plant responses to elevated CO2: how important is leaf area index?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.

    2004-01-01

    Background and Aims The problem of increasing CO2 concentration [CO2] and associated climate change has [CO2] on plants. While variation in growth and productivity is generated much interest in modelling effects of closely related to the amount of intercepted radiation, largely determined by leaf

  9. Modeling: An Important Ingredient in Higher Education for American Indian Women Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, E. Daniel; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Discusses characteristics and behaviors of effective role models for American Indian women, based on surveys of graduates of the American Indian Social Work Career Training Program at the University of Utah. Recruitment and retention of American Indian women students will require an active support system. (JAC)

  10. IMPORTANCE OF TEMPERATURE IN MODELLING PCB BIOACCUMULATION IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN FOOD WEB

    Science.gov (United States)

    In most food web models, the exposure temperature of a food web is typically defined using a single spatial compartment. This essentially assumes that the predator and prey are exposed to the same temperature. However, in a large water body such as Lake Michigan, due to the spati...

  11. Importance of the energy-dependent geometry in the 16O+ 16O optical model potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantis, G.; Ioannidis, K.; Poirier, P.

    1985-01-01

    Optical model potentials with various forms of energy-dependent geometry have been considered for the description of 16 O+ 16 O elastic scattering. It is shown that the variation with energy of the imaginary radius leads to a reasonable fit of the cross-section data, throughout the energy range

  12. Numerical considerations for Lagrangian stochastic dispersion models: Eliminating rogue trajectories, and the importance of numerical accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    When Lagrangian stochastic models for turbulent dispersion are applied to complex flows, some type of ad hoc intervention is almost always necessary to eliminate unphysical behavior in the numerical solution. This paper discusses numerical considerations when solving the Langevin-based particle velo...

  13. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  14. The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Reichstein, Markus

    2017-06-01

    Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that this intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39-47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.

  15. The importance of being equivalent: Newton's two models of one-body motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourciau, Bruce

    2004-05-01

    As an undergraduate at Cambridge, Newton entered into his "Waste Book" an assumption that we have named the Equivalence Assumption (The Younger): "If a body move progressively in some crooked line [about a center of motion] ..., [then this] crooked line may bee conceived to consist of an infinite number of streight lines. Or else in any point of the croked line the motion may bee conceived to be on in the tangent". In this assumption, Newton somewhat imprecisely describes two mathematical models, a "polygonal limit model" and a "tangent deflected model", for "one-body motion", that is, for the motion of a "body in orbit about a fixed center", and then claims that these two models are equivalent. In the first part of this paper, we study the Principia to determine how the elder Newton would more carefully describe the polygonal limit and tangent deflected models. From these more careful descriptions, we then create Equivalence Assumption (The Elder), a precise interpretation of Equivalence Assumption (The Younger) as it might have been restated by Newton, after say 1687. We then review certain portions of the Waste Book and the Principia to make the case that, although Newton never restates nor even alludes to the Equivalence Assumption after his youthful Waste Book entry, still the polygonal limit and tangent deflected models, as well as an unspoken belief in their equivalence, infuse Newton's work on orbital motion. In particular, we show that the persuasiveness of the argument for the Area Property in Proposition 1 of the Principia depends crucially on the validity of Equivalence Assumption (The Elder). After this case is made, we present the mathematical analysis required to establish the validity of the Equivalence Assumption (The Elder). Finally, to illustrate the fundamental nature of the resulting theorem, the Equivalence Theorem as we call it, we present three significant applications: we use the Equivalence Theorem first to clarify and resolve questions

  16. The Importance of Representing Certain Key Vegetation Canopy Processes Explicitly in a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoly, A.; Boone, A. A.; Martin, E.; Samuelsson, P.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface models are moving to more detailed vegetation canopy descriptions in order to better represent certain key processes, such as Carbon dynamics and snowpack evolution. Since such models are usually applied within coupled numerical weather prediction or spatially distributed hydrological models, these improvements must strike a balance between computational cost and complexity. The consequences of simplified or composite canopy approaches can be manifested in terms of increased errors with respect to soil temperatures, estimates of the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes or snow canopy interception and melt. Vegetated areas and particularly forests are modeled in a quite simplified manner in the ISBA land surface model. However, continuous developments of surface processes now require a more accurate description of the canopy. A new version of the the model now includes a multi energy balance (MEB) option to explicitly represent the canopy and the forest floor. It will be shown that certain newly included processes such as the shading effect of the vegetation, the explicit heat capacity of the canopy, and the insulating effect of the forest floor turn out to be essential. A detailed study has been done for four French forested sites. It was found that the MEB option significantly improves the ground heat flux (RMSE decrease from 50W/m2 to 10W/m2 on average) and soil temperatures when compared against measurements. Also the sensible heat flux calculation was improved primarily owing to a better phasing with the solar insulation owing to a lower vegetation heat capacity. However, the total latent heat flux is less modified compared to the classical ISBA simulation since it is more related to water uptake and the formulation of the stomatal resistance (which are unchanged). Next, a benchmark over 40 Fluxnet sites (116 cumulated years) was performed and compared with results from the default composite soil-vegetation version of ISBA. The results show

  17. On the importance of measurement error correlations in data assimilation for integrated hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporese, Matteo; Botto, Anna

    2017-04-01

    Data assimilation is becoming increasingly popular in hydrological and earth system modeling, as it allows us to integrate multisource observation data in modeling predictions and, in doing so, to reduce uncertainty. For this reason, data assimilation has been recently the focus of much attention also for physically-based integrated hydrological models, whereby multiple terrestrial compartments (e.g., snow cover, surface water, groundwater) are solved simultaneously, in an attempt to tackle environmental problems in a holistic approach. Recent examples include the joint assimilation of water table, soil moisture, and river discharge measurements in catchment models of coupled surface-subsurface flow using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). One of the typical assumptions in these studies is that the measurement errors are uncorrelated, whereas in certain situations it is reasonable to believe that some degree of correlation occurs, due for example to the fact that a pair of sensors share the same soil type. The goal of this study is to show if and how the measurement error correlations between different observation data play a significant role on assimilation results in a real-world application of an integrated hydrological model. The model CATHY (CATchment HYdrology) is applied to reproduce the hydrological dynamics observed in an experimental hillslope. The physical model, located in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering of the University of Padova (Italy), consists of a reinforced concrete box containing a soil prism with maximum height of 3.5 m, length of 6 m, and width of 2 m. The hillslope is equipped with sensors to monitor the pressure head and soil moisture responses to a series of generated rainfall events applied onto a 60 cm thick sand layer overlying a sandy clay soil. The measurement network is completed by two tipping bucket flow gages to measure the two components (subsurface and surface) of the outflow. By collecting

  18. Assessing Sexual Dicromatism: The Importance of Proper Parameterization in Tetrachromatic Visual Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Paul Bitton

    Full Text Available Perceptual models of animal vision have greatly contributed to our understanding of animal-animal and plant-animal communication. The receptor-noise model of color contrasts has been central to this research as it quantifies the difference between two colors for any visual system of interest. However, if the properties of the visual system are unknown, assumptions regarding parameter values must be made, generally with unknown consequences. In this study, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the receptor-noise model using avian visual system parameters to systematically investigate the influence of variation in light environment, photoreceptor sensitivities, photoreceptor densities, and light transmission properties of the ocular media and the oil droplets. We calculated the chromatic contrast of 15 plumage patches to quantify a dichromatism score for 70 species of Galliformes, a group of birds that display a wide range of sexual dimorphism. We found that the photoreceptor densities and the wavelength of maximum sensitivity of the short-wavelength-sensitive photoreceptor 1 (SWS1 can change dichromatism scores by 50% to 100%. In contrast, the light environment, transmission properties of the oil droplets, transmission properties of the ocular media, and the peak sensitivities of the cone photoreceptors had a smaller impact on the scores. By investigating the effect of varying two or more parameters simultaneously, we further demonstrate that improper parameterization could lead to differences between calculated and actual contrasts of more than 650%. Our findings demonstrate that improper parameterization of tetrachromatic visual models can have very large effects on measures of dichromatism scores, potentially leading to erroneous inferences. We urge more complete characterization of avian retinal properties and recommend that researchers either determine whether their species of interest possess an ultraviolet or near-ultraviolet sensitive SWS1

  19. Lessons Learned From the Development and Parameterization of a Computer Simulation Model to Evaluate Task Modification for Health Care Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasaie, Parastu; David Kelton, W; Ancona, Rachel M; Ward, Michael J; Froehle, Craig M; Lyons, Michael S

    2018-02-01

    Computer simulation is a highly advantageous method for understanding and improving health care operations with a wide variety of possible applications. Most computer simulation studies in emergency medicine have sought to improve allocation of resources to meet demand or to assess the impact of hospital and other system policies on emergency department (ED) throughput. These models have enabled essential discoveries that can be used to improve the general structure and functioning of EDs. Theoretically, computer simulation could also be used to examine the impact of adding or modifying specific provider tasks. Doing so involves a number of unique considerations, particularly in the complex environment of acute care settings. In this paper, we describe conceptual advances and lessons learned during the design, parameterization, and validation of a computer simulation model constructed to evaluate changes in ED provider activity. We illustrate these concepts using examples from a study focused on the operational effects of HIV screening implementation in the ED. Presentation of our experience should emphasize the potential for application of computer simulation to study changes in health care provider activity and facilitate the progress of future investigators in this field. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  20. Importance of Lorentz structure in the parton model: Target mass corrections, transverse momentum dependence, positivity bounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Alesio, U.; Leader, E.; Murgia, F.

    2010-01-01

    We show that respecting the underlying Lorentz structure in the parton model has very strong consequences. Failure to insist on the correct Lorentz covariance is responsible for the existence of contradictory results in the literature for the polarized structure function g 2 (x), whereas with the correct imposition we are able to derive the Wandzura-Wilczek relation for g 2 (x) and the target-mass corrections for polarized deep inelastic scattering without recourse to the operator product expansion. We comment briefly on the problem of threshold behavior in the presence of target-mass corrections. Careful attention to the Lorentz structure has also profound implications for the structure of the transverse momentum dependent parton densities often used in parton model treatments of hadron production, allowing the k T dependence to be derived explicitly. It also leads to stronger positivity and Soffer-type bounds than usually utilized for the collinear densities.

  1. LiH destruction by protons: a comparison of quantum models for an important astrochemical process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovino, S; Tacconi, M; Gianturco, F A

    2011-01-01

    The reaction LiH+H + →Li+H 2 + is considered one of the possible pathways leading to the destruction of LiH molecules taken to be present during the gravitational collapsing phase of the early universe history. We examine the results for the above gas-phase reaction rates produced from different quantum models of its dynamics and assess the overall computational reliability of the final data.

  2. LiH destruction by protons: a comparison of quantum models for an important astrochemical process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bovino, S; Tacconi, M; Gianturco, F A, E-mail: fa.gianturco@caspur.it [Department of Chemistry, Sapienza University of Rome P.le A Moro, 5, 00185 Rome (Italy)

    2011-08-01

    The reaction LiH+H{sup +}{yields}Li+H{sub 2}{sup +} is considered one of the possible pathways leading to the destruction of LiH molecules taken to be present during the gravitational collapsing phase of the early universe history. We examine the results for the above gas-phase reaction rates produced from different quantum models of its dynamics and assess the overall computational reliability of the final data.

  3. Modeling organic aerosols during MILAGRO: importance of biogenic secondary organic aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hodzic

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The meso-scale chemistry-transport model CHIMERE is used to assess our understanding of major sources and formation processes leading to a fairly large amount of organic aerosols – OA, including primary OA (POA and secondary OA (SOA – observed in Mexico City during the MILAGRO field project (March 2006. Chemical analyses of submicron aerosols from aerosol mass spectrometers (AMS indicate that organic particles found in the Mexico City basin contain a large fraction of oxygenated organic species (OOA which have strong correspondence with SOA, and that their production actively continues downwind of the city. The SOA formation is modeled here by the one-step oxidation of anthropogenic (i.e. aromatics, alkanes, biogenic (i.e. monoterpenes and isoprene, and biomass-burning SOA precursors and their partitioning into both organic and aqueous phases. Conservative assumptions are made for uncertain parameters to maximize the amount of SOA produced by the model. The near-surface model evaluation shows that predicted OA correlates reasonably well with measurements during the campaign, however it remains a factor of 2 lower than the measured total OA. Fairly good agreement is found between predicted and observed POA within the city suggesting that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are reasonably captured. Consistent with previous studies in Mexico City, large discrepancies are encountered for SOA, with a factor of 2–10 model underestimate. When only anthropogenic SOA precursors were considered, the model was able to reproduce within a factor of two the sharp increase in OOA concentrations during the late morning at both urban and near-urban locations but the discrepancy increases rapidly later in the day, consistent with previous results, and is especially obvious when the column-integrated SOA mass is considered instead of the surface concentration. The increase in the missing SOA mass in the afternoon coincides with the sharp drop in POA

  4. The importance of modeling nonhydrostatic processes for dense water reproduction in the Southern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellafiore, Debora; McKiver, William J.; Ferrarin, Christian; Umgiesser, Georg

    2018-05-01

    Dense water (DW) formation commonly occurs in the shallow Northern Adriatic Sea during winter outbreaks, when there is a combination of the cooling of surface waters by the winds and high salinity as a result of reduced river inputs. These DWs subsequently propagate southwards over a period of weeks/months, eventually arriving in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The investigation is based on a new nonhydrostatic (NH) formulation of the 3D finite element model SHYFEM that is validated for a number of theoretical test cases. Subsequently this model is used to simulate, through high-resolution numerical simulations, an extreme DW event that occurred in the Adriatic Sea in 2012. We perform both hydrostatic (HY) and NH simulations in order to explicitly see the impact of NH processes on the DW dynamics. The modeled results are compared to observations collected in the field campaign of March-April 2012 in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The NH run correctly reproduces the across isobath bottom-trapped gravity current characterizing the canyon DW pathways. It also more accurately captures the frequency and intensity of dense water cascading pulsing events, as the inclusion of NH processes produces stronger currents with different DW mixing characteristics. Finally, the NH run simulates internal gravity waves (IGW), generated during the cascading at the edge of the canyon, which propagate downslope. This IGW activity is not captured in the HY case.

  5. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  6. NOAA People Empowered Products (PeEP): Combining social media with scientific models to provide eye-witness confirmed products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codrescu, S.; Green, J. C.; Redmon, R. J.; Minor, K.; Denig, W. F.; Kihn, E. A.

    2013-12-01

    NOAA products and alerts rely on combinations of models and data to provide the public with information regarding space and terrestrial weather phenomena and hazards. This operational paradigm, while effective, neglects an abundant free source of measurements: millions of eyewitnesses viewing weather events. We demonstrate the capabilities of a prototype People Empowered Product (PeEP) that combines the OVATION prime auroral model running at the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center with Twitter reports of observable aurora. We introduce an algorithm for scoring Tweets based on keywords to improve the signal to noise of this dynamic data source. We use the location of the aurora derived from this new database of crowd sourced observations to validate the OVATION model for use in auroral forecasting. The combined product displays the model aurora in real time with markers showing the location and text of tweets from people actually observing the aurora. We discuss how the application might be extended to other space weather products such as radiation related satellite anomalies.

  7. A Critical Subset Model Provides a Conceptual Basis for the High Antiviral Activity of Major HIV Drugs**

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Lin; Rabi, S. Alireza; Sedaghat, Ahmad R.; Shan, Liang; Lai, Jun; Xing, Sifei; Siliciano, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    Control of HIV-1 replication was first achieved with regimens that included a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a protease inhibitor (PI); however, an explanation for the high antiviral activity of these drugs has been lacking. Indeed, conventional pharmacodynamic measures like IC50 (drug concentration causing 50% inhibition) do not differentiate NNRTIs and PIs from less active nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Drug inhibitory potential depends on the slope of the dose-response curve (m), which represents how inhibition increases as a function of increasing drug concentration and is related to the Hill coefficient, a measure of intramolecular cooperativity in ligand binding to a multivalent receptor. Although NNRTIs and PIs bind univalent targets, they unexpectedly exhibit cooperative dose-response curves (m > 1). We show that this cooperative inhibition can be explained by a model in which infectivity requires participation of multiple copies of a drug target in an individual life cycle stage. A critical subset of these target molecules must be in the unbound state. Consistent with experimental observations, this model predicts m > 1 for NNRTIs and PIs and m = 1 in situations where a single drug target/virus mediates a step in the life cycle, as is the case with NRTIs and integrase strand transfer inhibitors. This model was tested experimentally by modulating the number of functional drug targets per virus, and dose-response curves for modulated virus populations fit model predictions. This model explains the high antiviral activity of two drug classes important for successful HIV-1 treatment and defines a characteristic of good targets for antiviral drugs in general, namely, intermolecular cooperativity. PMID:21753122

  8. Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    Full Text Available Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes

  9. Model selection emphasises the importance of non-chromosomal information in genetic studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reda Rawi

    Full Text Available Ever since the case of the missing heritability was highlighted some years ago, scientists have been investigating various possible explanations for the issue. However, none of these explanations include non-chromosomal genetic information. Here we describe explicitly how chromosomal and non-chromosomal modifiers collectively influence the heritability of a trait, in this case, the growth rate of yeast. Our results show that the non-chromosomal contribution can be large, adding another dimension to the estimation of heritability. We also discovered, combining the strength of LASSO with model selection, that the interaction of chromosomal and non-chromosomal information is essential in describing phenotypes.

  10. Imported family models? Cohabitation patterns of Latin American women in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara CORTINA TRILLA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, international immigration flows have undergone a dramatic growth in Spain. In this particular context, the purpose of this article is to analyze whether Latin American female migrants residing in Spain largely maintain nuptial and reproductive patterns from their countries of origin. To analyze the prevalence of consensual unions we use three different databases: the Spanish Immigration Survey, the Spanish Labour Force Survey and birth records, all of them corresponding to 2007 and collected by the Spanish Statistical Institute. The study documents the high prevalence of consensual unions among Latin American migrants. Regarding the socio-demographic factors influencing cohabitation, our results show important similarities between Spanish and Latin American women, except for educational attainment.

  11. The importance of topographically corrected null models for analyzing ecological point processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowall, Philip; Lynch, Heather J

    2017-07-01

    Analyses of point process patterns and related techniques (e.g., MaxEnt) make use of the expected number of occurrences per unit area and second-order statistics based on the distance between occurrences. Ecologists working with point process data often assume that points exist on a two-dimensional x-y plane or within a three-dimensional volume, when in fact many observed point patterns are generated on a two-dimensional surface existing within three-dimensional space. For many surfaces, however, such as the topography of landscapes, the projection from the surface to the x-y plane preserves neither area nor distance. As such, when these point patterns are implicitly projected to and analyzed in the x-y plane, our expectations of the point pattern's statistical properties may not be met. When used in hypothesis testing, we find that the failure to account for the topography of the generating surface may bias statistical tests that incorrectly identify clustering and, furthermore, may bias coefficients in inhomogeneous point process models that incorporate slope as a covariate. We demonstrate the circumstances under which this bias is significant, and present simple methods that allow point processes to be simulated with corrections for topography. These point patterns can then be used to generate "topographically corrected" null models against which observed point processes can be compared. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. Medicare Provider Data - Hospice Providers

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Hospice Utilization and Payment Public Use File provides information on services provided to Medicare beneficiaries by hospice providers. The Hospice PUF...

  13. The Importance of the Online Business Models on the Internet Businesses Evolution, in Romania, in Economic Crisis Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    NEGOI Eugen-Remus; SION Beatrice

    2010-01-01

    In managing a business online, it was given crucial importance to research business and increase the visibility of offered products or services, through online social media. Promotional expenses compared to the online business model to those of a traditional business model, decreased significantly. Visibility, as equal opportunity, given the size of a business and lift them in time. A contemporary Romanian online business success is based even so on visibility and social environments on the I...

  14. Report: the current situation of sanitary landfills in Brazil and the importance of the application of economic models

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira Neto, Raúl; Otávio Petter, Carlos; Cortina Pallás, José Luís

    2009-01-01

    We present the development stage of the sanitary landfills in Brazil in the context of urban solid residue management, demonstrating the necessity and importance of the employment of economic models. In the article, a cost estimate model is proposed as the basis for studies to be applied by sector management, including the city council, companies, consultants and engineers, contributing to the choice of new areas, public bids, municipal consortia and private public partnerships. Peer Re...

  15. Acute administration of n-3 rich triglyceride emulsions provides cardioprotection in murine models after ischemia-reperfusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hylde Zirpoli

    Full Text Available Dietary n-3 fatty acids (FAs may reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We questioned whether acute administration of n-3 rich triglyceride (TG emulsions could preserve cardiac function and decrease injury after ischemia/reperfusion (I/R insult. We used two different experimental models: in vivo, C57BL/6 mice were exposed to acute occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD, and ex-vivo, C57BL/6 murine hearts were perfused using Langendorff technique (LT. In the LAD model, mice treated with n-3 TG emulsion (1.5 g/kg body weight, immediately after ischemia and 1 h later during reperfusion, significantly reduced infarct size and maintained cardiac function (p<0.05. In the LT model, administration of n-3 TG emulsion (300 mg TG/100 ml during reperfusion significantly improved functional recovery (p<0.05. In both models, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH levels, as a marker of injury, were significantly reduced by n-3 TG emulsion. To investigate the mechanisms by which n-3 FAs protects hearts from I/R injury, we investigated changes in key pathways linked to cardioprotection. In the ex-vivo model, we showed that n-3 FAs increased phosphorylation of AKT and GSK3β proteins (p<0.05. Acute n-3 TG emulsion treatment also increased Bcl-2 protein level and reduced an autophagy marker, Beclin-1 (p<0.05. Additionally, cardioprotection by n-3 TG emulsion was linked to changes in PPARγ protein expression (p<0.05. Rosiglitazone and p-AKT inhibitor counteracted the positive effect of n-3 TG; GSK3β inhibitor plus n-3 TG significantly inhibited LDH release. We conclude that acute n-3 TG injection during reperfusion provides cardioprotection. This may prove to be a novel acute adjunctive reperfusion therapy after treating patients with myocardial infarction.

  16. Cost-effectiveness modeling for neuropathic pain treatments: investigating the relative importance of parameters using an open-source model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirst, Matthew; Bending, Matthew W; Baio, Gianluca; Yesufu-Udechuku, Amina; Dunlop, William C N

    2018-06-08

    The study objective was to develop an open-source replicate of a cost-effectiveness model developed by National Institute for Health and Care (NICE) in order to explore uncertainties in health economic modeling of novel pharmacological neuropathic pain treatments. The NICE model, consisting of a decision tree with branches for discrete levels of pain relief and adverse event (AE) severities, was replicated using R and used to compare a hypothetical neuropathic pain drug to pregabalin. Model parameters were sourced from NICE's clinical guidelines and associated with probability distributions to account for underlying uncertainty. A simulation-based scenario analysis was conducted to assess how uncertainty in efficacy and AEs affected the net monetary benefit (NMB) for the hypothetical treatment at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Relative to pregabalin, an increase in efficacy was associated with greater NMB than an improvement in tolerability. A greater NMB was observed when efficacy was marginally higher than that of pregabalin while maintaining the same level of AEs than when efficacy was equivalent to pregabalin but with a more substantial reduction in AEs. In the latter scenario, the NMB was only positive at a low cost-effectiveness threshold. The replicate model shares the limitations described in the NICE guidelines. There is a lack of support in scientific literature for the assumption that increased efficacy is associated with a greater reduction in tolerability. The replicate model also included a single comparator, unlike the NICE model. Pain relief is a stronger driver of NMB than tolerability at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Health technology assessment decisions which are influenced by NICE's model may reward efficacy gains even if they are associated with more severe AEs. This contrasts with recommendations from clinical guidelines for neuropathic pain which place more equal weighting on improvements in

  17. Human neural stem cells over-expressing VEGF provide neuroprotection, angiogenesis and functional recovery in mouse stroke model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH is a lethal stroke type. As mortality approaches 50%, and current medical therapy against ICH shows only limited effectiveness, an alternative approach is required, such as stem cell-based cell therapy. Previously we have shown that intravenously transplanted human neural stem cells (NSCs selectively migrate to the brain and induce behavioral recovery in rat ICH model, and that combined administration of NSCs and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF results in improved structural and functional outcome from cerebral ischemia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We postulated that human NSCs overexpressing VEGF transplanted into cerebral cortex overlying ICH lesion could provide improved survival of grafted NSCs, increased angiogenesis and behavioral recovery in mouse ICH model. ICH was induced in adult mice by unilateral injection of bacterial collagenase into striatum. HB1.F3.VEGF human NSC line produced an amount of VEGF four times higher than parental F3 cell line in vitro, and induced behavioral improvement and 2-3 fold increase in cell survival at two weeks and eight weeks post-transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Brain transplantation of F3 human NSCs over-expressing VEGF near ICH lesion sites provided differentiation and survival of grafted human NSCs and renewed angiogenesis of host brain and functional recovery of ICH animals. These results suggest a possible application of the human neural stem cell line, which is genetically modified to over-express VEGF, as a therapeutic agent for ICH-stroke.

  18. Modeling Leptospirosis in Trinidad, West Indies: A Waterborne Zoonosis of Increasing Public Health Importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, M. C.; Opadeyi, J.

    2012-12-01

    Leptospirosis is a waterborne disease which is considered one of the most common and widely spread bacterial zoonosis and a growing global public health problem. Transmission in humans is caused by direct or indirect contact with contaminated water, soil or infected urine, blood or tissue of carrier animals. Because of the similarity with influenza, dengue and viral hepatitis symptoms it is often misdiagnosed with these diseases, but as the leptospirosis progresses, internal organs can be compromised, causing severe syndromes (e.g. Weil's disease), and potentially can cause death. In less developed countries, leptospirosis is often poorly recognized. In humid tropics and subtropics, where this disease has a high impact, climatic and environmental factors, such as rainfall, floods, land cover and their modifications have been frequently related to the occurrence of leptospirosis. In these regions one of the main problems for the study of the role of environmental factors on disease dynamics is the lack of accurate data since, in many cases, data are either unavailable or do not exist at all. Between 1980 and 2005 a total of 12,475 cases of leptospirosis were reported from all Caribbean countries, with 2,370 (19%) of these corresponding to Trinidad and Tobago, where the current average annual incidence rate is 1.84 per 100,000 population based on confirmed cases. In order to explore the underlying spatial variability of leptospirosis occurrence as related to environmental and socio-economic factors, a series of Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were developed. GWR was used to examine the determinants of leptospirosis in the communities of Trinidad using a total of 1,549 reported cases and 250 confirmed cases from 1998 to 2008. MODIS satellite imagery and GIS analysis were used to develop a series of covariables for each community including land cover, vegetation indices, wetness index (ln (α/tanβ)), river length per Ha, topography, percentage of free

  19. The Importance of Topography in Modeling the Climates of Potentially Habitable Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Way, M.; Jonas, J.

    2017-12-01

    The surface features of distant potentially habitable worlds are unknown and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. As a result, 3-D general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climates of these worlds commonly utilize an aquaplanet configuration (no emergent land). We highlight here the differences in simulated climates that are produced when using realistic, reconstructed, or idealized continental distributions. Paleo-Earth scenarios as analogues of habitable exoplanets with emergent land exist back to 2 Gyr. There is high confidence in continental reconstructions back to 300 Myr, with moderate confidence reconstructions dating to at least 1 Gyr. A range of habitable states exists throughout the last two billion years of Earth history, including periods that are representative of both inner and outer edge environments, i.e., Snowball Earth and the Cretaceous Greenhouse. Using reconstructed land/ocean distributions with the GCM permits us to test hypotheses based on conceptual models (does a supercontinent at tropical latitudes encourage global cooling via albedo feedbacks?) as well as explore far-field climate teleconnections that may explain enhanced habitability (does the closing of an equatorial seaway drive increased heating in polar regions?). Paleo-Venus simulations, using current topography and a slow rotation rate, have shown that large land fraction in the tropics combined with modest amounts of water actually limits the amount of planetary warming to habitable levels, moreso than aquaplanets, given the equivalent solar flux - thus showing the inner edge of the HZ to be more transitional than previously described. For distant exoplanets or paleo-Earth prior to 2 Gyr, idealized continents or modern Earth topography help illustrate the range of possible habitable states for a given case. With idealized continents, varying the land fraction and location produces as much as a 20˚C difference in global MAT for otherwise identical simulations

  20. The importance of magnetic methods for soil mapping and process modelling. Case study in Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshov, Oleksandr; Pereira, Paulo; Kruglov, Oleksandr; Sukhorada, Anatoliy

    2016-04-01

    The correct planning of agriculture areas is fundamental for a sustainable future in Ukraine. After the recent political problems in Ukraine, new challenges emerged regarding sustainability questions. At the same time the soil mapping and modelling are intensively developing all over the world (Pereira et al., 2015; Brevik et al., in press). Magnetic susceptibility (MS) methods are low cost and accurate for the developing maps of agricultural areas, fundamental for Ukrain's economy.This allow to colleact a great amount of soil data, usefull for a better understading of the spatial distribution of soil properties. Recently, this method have been applied in other works in Ukraine and elsewhere (Jordanova et al., 2011; Menshov et al., 2015). The objective of this work is to study the spatial distribution of MS and humus content on the topsoils (0-5 cm) in two different areas. The first is located in Poltava region and the second in Kharkiv region. The results showed that MS depends of soil type, topography and anthropogenic influence. For the interpretation of MS spatial distribution in top soil we consider the frequency and time after the last tillage, tilth depth, fertilizing, and the puddling regarding the vehicle model. On average the soil MS of the top soil of these two cases is about 30-70×10-8 m3/kg. In Poltava region not disturbed soil has on average MS values of 40-50×10-8 m3/kg, for Kharkiv region 50-60×10-8 m3/kg. The tilled soil of Poltava region has on average an MS of 60×10-8 m3/kg, and 70×10-8 m3/kg in Kharkiv region. MS is higher in non-tilled soils than in the tilled ones. The correlation between MS and soil humus content is very high ( up to 0.90) in both cases. Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma (in press), doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017 Jordanova D., Jordanova N., Atanasova A., Tsacheva T., Petrov P

  1. Model, First-Principle Calculation of Ammonia Dissociation on Si(100 Surface. Importance of Proton Tunneling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Z. Zgierski

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The dissociation of an ammonia molecule on a cluster of Si atoms simulating the 100 silicon crystal structure with two Si dimers has been investigated by means of the DFT and an approximate instanton methods. The model corresponds to the low coverage limit of the surface. Absolute rate constants of two different dissociation paths are evaluated together with deuterium isotope effects. It is demonstrated that, even at room temperatures, the process is dominated by tunneling and that dissociation to a silicon atom of the adjacent dimer, rather than a silicon within the same dimer, is the prevailing mechanism. This leads to creation of a metastable structure which will slowly decay through a two-step hydrogen atom migration towards the absolute minimum on the potential energy surface corresponding to the NH2 group and the hydrogen atom residing in the same dimer.

  2. Baryonic effects in cosmic shear tomography: PCA parametrization and importance of extreme baryonic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammed, Irshad [Fermilab; Gnedin, Nickolay Y. [Fermilab

    2017-07-07

    Baryonic effects are amongst the most severe systematics to the tomographic analysis of weak lensing data which is the principal probe in many future generations of cosmological surveys like LSST, Euclid etc.. Modeling or parameterizing these effects is essential in order to extract valuable constraints on cosmological parameters. In a recent paper, Eifler et al. (2015) suggested a reduction technique for baryonic effects by conducting a principal component analysis (PCA) and removing the largest baryonic eigenmodes from the data. In this article, we conducted the investigation further and addressed two critical aspects. Firstly, we performed the analysis by separating the simulations into training and test sets, computing a minimal set of principle components from the training set and examining the fits on the test set. We found that using only four parameters, corresponding to the four largest eigenmodes of the training set, the test sets can be fitted thoroughly with an RMS $\\sim 0.0011$. Secondly, we explored the significance of outliers, the most exotic/extreme baryonic scenarios, in this method. We found that excluding the outliers from the training set results in a relatively bad fit and degraded the RMS by nearly a factor of 3. Therefore, for a direct employment of this method to the tomographic analysis of the weak lensing data, the principle components should be derived from a training set that comprises adequately exotic but reasonable models such that the reality is included inside the parameter domain sampled by the training set. The baryonic effects can be parameterized as the coefficients of these principle components and should be marginalized over the cosmological parameter space.

  3. A Hybrid Monte Carlo importance sampling of rare events in Turbulence and in Turbulent Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margazoglou, Georgios; Biferale, Luca; Grauer, Rainer; Jansen, Karl; Mesterhazy, David; Rosenow, Tillmann; Tripiccione, Raffaele

    2017-11-01

    Extreme and rare events is a challenging topic in the field of turbulence. Trying to investigate those instances through the use of traditional numerical tools turns to be a notorious task, as they fail to systematically sample the fluctuations around them. On the other hand, we propose that an importance sampling Monte Carlo method can selectively highlight extreme events in remote areas of the phase space and induce their occurrence. We present a brand new computational approach, based on the path integral formulation of stochastic dynamics, and employ an accelerated Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for this purpose. Through the paradigm of stochastic one-dimensional Burgers' equation, subjected to a random noise that is white-in-time and power-law correlated in Fourier space, we will prove our concept and benchmark our results with standard CFD methods. Furthermore, we will present our first results of constrained sampling around saddle-point instanton configurations (optimal fluctuations). The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 642069, and from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under ERC Grant Agreement No. 339032.

  4. Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: Importance of vehicle fleet and local features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Hong; Zhang Qiang; He Kebin; Yao Zhiliang; Wang Xintong; Zheng Bo; Streets, David G.; Wang Qidong; Ding Yan

    2011-01-01

    We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control. - Highlights: → We examine vehicle emissions in 22 Chinese cities of different types and locations. → Vehicle emission factors of the cities differ by 50-90% due to distinct local features. → Each vehicle type contributes differently to total emissions among the cities. → A substantial increase in vehicle emissions in most Chinese cities is foreseeable. → City-specific fleet and local features are important in research and policy making. - Vehicle emission characteristics of Chinese cities are remarkably different, and local features need to be taken into account in vehicle emission studies and control strategy.

  5. Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hristov, Y; Oxley, G; Žagar, M

    2014-01-01

    The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-ε turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies

  6. Xenon and sevoflurane provide analgesia during labor and fetal brain protection in a perinatal rat model of hypoxia-ischemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Yang

    Full Text Available It is not possible to identify all pregnancies at risk of neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE. Many women use some form of analgesia during childbirth and some anesthetic agents have been shown to be neuroprotective when used as analgesics at subanesthetic concentrations. In this study we sought to understand the effects of two anesthetic agents with presumptive analgesic activity and known preconditioning-neuroprotective properties (sevoflurane or xenon, in reducing hypoxia-induced brain damage in a model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. The analgesic and neuroprotective effects at subanesthetic levels of sevoflurane (0.35% or xenon (35% were tested in a rat model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. Analgesic effects were measured by assessing maternal behavior and spinal cord dorsal horn neuronal activation using c-Fos. In separate experiments, intrauterine fetal asphyxia was induced four hours after gas exposure; on post-insult day 3 apoptotic cell death was measured by caspase-3 immunostaining in hippocampal neurons and correlated with the number of viable neurons on postnatal day (PND 7. A separate cohort of pups was nurtured by a surrogate mother for 50 days when cognitive testing with Morris water maze was performed. Both anesthetic agents provided analgesia as reflected by a reduction in the number of stretching movements and decreased c-Fos expression in the dorsal horn of the spinal cord. Both agents also reduced the number of caspase-3 positive (apoptotic neurons and increased cell viability in the hippocampus at PND7. These acute histological changes were mirrored by improved cognitive function measured remotely after birth on PND 50 compared to control group. Subanesthetic doses of sevoflurane or xenon provided both analgesia and neuroprotection in this model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. These data suggest that anesthetic agents with neuroprotective properties may be effective in preventing HIE and should be

  7. Examining the Support Peer Supporters Provide Using Structural Equation Modeling: Nondirective and Directive Support in Diabetes Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowitt, Sarah D; Ayala, Guadalupe X; Cherrington, Andrea L; Horton, Lucy A; Safford, Monika M; Soto, Sandra; Tang, Tricia S; Fisher, Edwin B

    2017-12-01

    Little research has examined the characteristics of peer support. Pertinent to such examination may be characteristics such as the distinction between nondirective support (accepting recipients' feelings and cooperative with their plans) and directive (prescribing "correct" choices and feelings). In a peer support program for individuals with diabetes, this study examined (a) whether the distinction between nondirective and directive support was reflected in participants' ratings of support provided by peer supporters and (b) how nondirective and directive support were related to depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Three hundred fourteen participants with type 2 diabetes provided data on depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and HbA1c before and after a diabetes management intervention delivered by peer supporters. At post-intervention, participants reported how the support provided by peer supporters was nondirective or directive. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), correlation analyses, and structural equation modeling examined the relationships among reports of nondirective and directive support, depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and measured HbA1c. CFA confirmed the factor structure distinguishing between nondirective and directive support in participants' reports of support delivered by peer supporters. Controlling for demographic factors, baseline clinical values, and site, structural equation models indicated that at post-intervention, participants' reports of nondirective support were significantly associated with lower, while reports of directive support were significantly associated with greater depressive symptoms, altogether (with control variables) accounting for 51% of the variance in depressive symptoms. Peer supporters' nondirective support was associated with lower, but directive support was associated with greater depressive symptoms.

  8. Acute administration of n-3 rich triglyceride emulsions provides cardioprotection in murine models after ischemia-reperfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zirpoli, Hylde; Abdillahi, Mariane; Quadri, Nosirudeen; Ananthakrishnan, Radha; Wang, Lingjie; Rosario, Rosa; Zhu, Zhengbin; Deckelbaum, Richard J; Ramasamy, Ravichandran

    2015-01-01

    Dietary n-3 fatty acids (FAs) may reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We questioned whether acute administration of n-3 rich triglyceride (TG) emulsions could preserve cardiac function and decrease injury after ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) insult. We used two different experimental models: in vivo, C57BL/6 mice were exposed to acute occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD), and ex-vivo, C57BL/6 murine hearts were perfused using Langendorff technique (LT). In the LAD model, mice treated with n-3 TG emulsion (1.5 g/kg body weight), immediately after ischemia and 1 h later during reperfusion, significantly reduced infarct size and maintained cardiac function (plevels, as a marker of injury, were significantly reduced by n-3 TG emulsion. To investigate the mechanisms by which n-3 FAs protects hearts from I/R injury, we investigated changes in key pathways linked to cardioprotection. In the ex-vivo model, we showed that n-3 FAs increased phosphorylation of AKT and GSK3β proteins (plevel and reduced an autophagy marker, Beclin-1 (pGSK3β inhibitor plus n-3 TG significantly inhibited LDH release. We conclude that acute n-3 TG injection during reperfusion provides cardioprotection. This may prove to be a novel acute adjunctive reperfusion therapy after treating patients with myocardial infarction.

  9. The importance of distribution-choice in modeling substance use data: a comparison of negative binomial, beta binomial, and zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Brandie; Riggs, Paula; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan

    2015-01-01

    It is important to correctly understand the associations among addiction to multiple drugs and between co-occurring substance use and psychiatric disorders. Substance-specific outcomes (e.g. number of days used cannabis) have distributional characteristics which range widely depending on the substance and the sample being evaluated. We recommend a four-part strategy for determining the appropriate distribution for modeling substance use data. We demonstrate this strategy by comparing the model fit and resulting inferences from applying four different distributions to model use of substances that range greatly in the prevalence and frequency of their use. Using Timeline Followback (TLFB) data from a previously-published study, we used negative binomial, beta-binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts to model proportion of days during treatment of cannabis, cigarettes, alcohol, and opioid use. The fit for each distribution was evaluated with statistical model selection criteria, visual plots and a comparison of the resulting inferences. We demonstrate the feasibility and utility of modeling each substance individually and show that no single distribution provides the best fit for all substances. Inferences regarding use of each substance and associations with important clinical variables were not consistent across models and differed by substance. Thus, the distribution chosen for modeling substance use must be carefully selected and evaluated because it may impact the resulting conclusions. Furthermore, the common procedure of aggregating use across different substances may not be ideal.

  10. Importance of exposure model in estimating impacts when a water distribution system is contaminated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, M. J.; Janke, R.; Environmental Science Division; USEPA

    2008-01-01

    The quantity of a contaminant ingested by individuals using tap water drawn from a water distribution system during a contamination event depends on the concentration of the contaminant in the water and the volume of water ingested. If the concentration varies with time, the actual time of exposure affects the quantity ingested. The influence of the timing of exposure and of individual variability in the volume of water ingested on estimated impacts for a contamination event has received limited attention. We examine the significance of ingestion timing and variability in the volume of water ingested by using a number of models for ingestion timing and volume. Contaminant concentrations were obtained from simulations of an actual distribution system for cases involving contaminant injections lasting from 1 to 24 h. We find that assumptions about exposure can significantly influence estimated impacts, especially when injection durations are short and impact thresholds are high. The influence of ingestion timing and volume should be considered when assessing impacts for contamination events

  11. The importance of dietary control in the development of a peanut allergy model in Brown Norway rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, J.D. de; Knippels, L.M.J.; Ezendam, J.; Odink, J.; Penninks, A.H.; Loveren, H. van

    2007-01-01

    This report describes the further development of a peanut allergy model in Brown Norway (BN) rats and in particular the importance of allergen-free breeding of the laboratory animals for the allergen to be used. For this purpose BN rats were bred for 3 generations on soy- and peanut-free feed since

  12. The importance of becoming double-stranded: Innate immunity and the kinetic model of HIV-1 central plus strand synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeschla, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Central initiation of plus strand synthesis is a conserved feature of lentiviruses and certain other retroelements. This complication of the standard reverse transcription mechanism produces a transient “central DNA flap” in the viral cDNA, which has been proposed to mediate its subsequent nuclear import. This model has assumed that the important feature is the flapped DNA structure itself rather than the process that produces it. Recently, an alternative kinetic model was proposed. It posits that central plus strand synthesis functions to accelerate conversion to the double-stranded state, thereby helping HIV-1 to evade single-strand DNA-targeting antiviral restrictions such as APOBEC3 proteins, and perhaps to avoid innate immune sensor mechanisms. The model is consistent with evidence that lentiviruses must often synthesize their cDNAs when dNTP concentrations are limiting and with data linking reverse transcription and uncoating. There may be additional kinetic advantages for the artificial genomes of lentiviral gene therapy vectors. - Highlights: • Two main functional models for HIV central plus strand synthesis have been proposed. • In one, a transient central DNA flap in the viral cDNA mediates HIV-1 nuclear import. • In the other, multiple kinetic consequences are emphasized. • One is defense against APOBEC3G, which deaminates single-stranded DNA. • Future questions pertain to antiviral restriction, uncoating and nuclear import

  13. Using a Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Model To Determine the Actual Cost of Services Provided by a Transgenic Core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerwin, Philip M; Norinsky, Rada M; Tolwani, Ravi J

    2018-03-01

    Laboratory animal programs and core laboratories often set service rates based on cost estimates. However, actual costs may be unknown, and service rates may not reflect the actual cost of services. Accurately evaluating the actual costs of services can be challenging and time-consuming. We used a time-driven activity-based costing (ABC) model to determine the cost of services provided by a resource laboratory at our institution. The time-driven approach is a more efficient approach to calculating costs than using a traditional ABC model. We calculated only 2 parameters: the time required to perform an activity and the unit cost of the activity based on employee cost. This method allowed us to rapidly and accurately calculate the actual cost of services provided, including microinjection of a DNA construct, microinjection of embryonic stem cells, embryo transfer, and in vitro fertilization. We successfully implemented a time-driven ABC model to evaluate the cost of these services and the capacity of labor used to deliver them. We determined how actual costs compared with current service rates. In addition, we determined that the labor supplied to conduct all services (10,645 min/wk) exceeded the practical labor capacity (8400 min/wk), indicating that the laboratory team was highly efficient and that additional labor capacity was needed to prevent overloading of the current team. Importantly, this time-driven ABC approach allowed us to establish a baseline model that can easily be updated to reflect operational changes or changes in labor costs. We demonstrated that a time-driven ABC model is a powerful management tool that can be applied to other core facilities as well as to entire animal programs, providing valuable information that can be used to set rates based on the actual cost of services and to improve operating efficiency.

  14. A new glucocerebrosidase-deficient neuronal cell model provides a tool to probe pathophysiology and therapeutics for Gaucher disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westbroek, Wendy; Nguyen, Matthew; Siebert, Marina; Lindstrom, Taylor; Burnett, Robert A; Aflaki, Elma; Jung, Olive; Tamargo, Rafael; Rodriguez-Gil, Jorge L; Acosta, Walter; Hendrix, An; Behre, Bahafta; Tayebi, Nahid; Fujiwara, Hideji; Sidhu, Rohini; Renvoise, Benoit; Ginns, Edward I; Dutra, Amalia; Pak, Evgenia; Cramer, Carole; Ory, Daniel S; Pavan, William J; Sidransky, Ellen

    2016-07-01

    Glucocerebrosidase is a lysosomal hydrolase involved in the breakdown of glucosylceramide. Gaucher disease, a recessive lysosomal storage disorder, is caused by mutations in the gene GBA1 Dysfunctional glucocerebrosidase leads to accumulation of glucosylceramide and glycosylsphingosine in various cell types and organs. Mutations in GBA1 are also a common genetic risk factor for Parkinson disease and related synucleinopathies. In recent years, research on the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease, the molecular link between Gaucher and Parkinson disease, and novel therapeutics, have accelerated the need for relevant cell models with GBA1 mutations. Although induced pluripotent stem cells, primary rodent neurons, and transfected neuroblastoma cell lines have been used to study the effect of glucocerebrosidase deficiency on neuronal function, these models have limitations because of challenges in culturing and propagating the cells, low yield, and the introduction of exogenous mutant GBA1 To address some of these difficulties, we established a high yield, easy-to-culture mouse neuronal cell model with nearly complete glucocerebrosidase deficiency representative of Gaucher disease. We successfully immortalized cortical neurons from embryonic null allele gba(-/-) mice and the control littermate (gba(+/+)) by infecting differentiated primary cortical neurons in culture with an EF1α-SV40T lentivirus. Immortalized gba(-/-) neurons lack glucocerebrosidase protein and enzyme activity, and exhibit a dramatic increase in glucosylceramide and glucosylsphingosine accumulation, enlarged lysosomes, and an impaired ATP-dependent calcium-influx response; these phenotypical characteristics were absent in gba(+/+) neurons. This null allele gba(-/-) mouse neuronal model provides a much-needed tool to study the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease and to evaluate new therapies. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  15. A new glucocerebrosidase-deficient neuronal cell model provides a tool to probe pathophysiology and therapeutics for Gaucher disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Westbroek

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Glucocerebrosidase is a lysosomal hydrolase involved in the breakdown of glucosylceramide. Gaucher disease, a recessive lysosomal storage disorder, is caused by mutations in the gene GBA1. Dysfunctional glucocerebrosidase leads to accumulation of glucosylceramide and glycosylsphingosine in various cell types and organs. Mutations in GBA1 are also a common genetic risk factor for Parkinson disease and related synucleinopathies. In recent years, research on the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease, the molecular link between Gaucher and Parkinson disease, and novel therapeutics, have accelerated the need for relevant cell models with GBA1 mutations. Although induced pluripotent stem cells, primary rodent neurons, and transfected neuroblastoma cell lines have been used to study the effect of glucocerebrosidase deficiency on neuronal function, these models have limitations because of challenges in culturing and propagating the cells, low yield, and the introduction of exogenous mutant GBA1. To address some of these difficulties, we established a high yield, easy-to-culture mouse neuronal cell model with nearly complete glucocerebrosidase deficiency representative of Gaucher disease. We successfully immortalized cortical neurons from embryonic null allele gba−/− mice and the control littermate (gba+/+ by infecting differentiated primary cortical neurons in culture with an EF1α-SV40T lentivirus. Immortalized gba−/− neurons lack glucocerebrosidase protein and enzyme activity, and exhibit a dramatic increase in glucosylceramide and glucosylsphingosine accumulation, enlarged lysosomes, and an impaired ATP-dependent calcium-influx response; these phenotypical characteristics were absent in gba+/+ neurons. This null allele gba−/− mouse neuronal model provides a much-needed tool to study the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease and to evaluate new therapies.

  16. Categorical Inputs, Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Importance Tempering with tgp Version 2, an R Package for Treed Gaussian Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Gramacy

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This document describes the new features in version 2.x of the tgp package for R, implementing treed Gaussian process (GP models. The topics covered include methods for dealing with categorical inputs and excluding inputs from the tree or GP part of the model; fully Bayesian sensitivity analysis for inputs/covariates; sequential optimization of black-box functions; and a new Monte Carlo method for inference in multi-modal posterior distributions that combines simulated tempering and importance sampling. These additions extend the functionality of tgp across all models in the hierarchy: from Bayesian linear models, to classification and regression trees (CART, to treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the baseline functionality of the package, outlined in the first vignette (Gramacy 2007.

  17. Decent wage is more important than absolution of debts: A smallholder socio-hydrological modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The hydroclimatic variability is at sub-annual scale and influences the socio-hydrology at annual scale. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of a sugarcane small holder in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydro-climatic variability. We study the sensitivity of annual total capital averaged over 30 years, an indicator of small holder wellbeing, to initial capital that a small holder starts with and the prevalent wage rates. We find that a smallholder well being is low (below Rs 30000 per annum, a threshold above which a smallholder can afford a basic standard of living) and is rather insensitive to initial capital at low wage rates. Initial capital perhaps matters to small holder livelihoods at higher wage rates. Further, the small holder system appears to be resilient at around Rs 115/mandays in the sense that small perturbations in wage rates around this rate still sustains the smallholder above the basic standard of living. Our results thus indicate that government intervention to absolve the debt of farmers is not enough. It

  18. Using lumped modelling for providing simple metrics and associated uncertainties of catchment response to agricultural-derived nitrates pollutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    RUIZ, L.; Fovet, O.; Faucheux, M.; Molenat, J.; Sekhar, M.; Aquilina, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.

    2013-12-01

    catchments. We used the Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimations (GLUE) approach [Beven and Binley, 1992] to assess the parameter uncertainties and the subsequent error in model outputs and residence times. Reasonably low parameter uncertainties were obtained by calibrating simultaneously the two paired catchments with two outlets time series of stream flow and nitrate concentrations. Finally, only one parameter controlled the contrast in nitrogen residence times between the catchments. Therefore, this approach provided a promising metric for classifying the variability of catchment response to agricultural nitrogen inputs. Beven, K., and A. Binley (1992), THE FUTURE OF DISTRIBUTED MODELS - MODEL CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION, Hydrological Processes, 6(3), 279-298. Kirchner, J. W., X. Feng, and C. Neal (2001), Catchment-scale advection and dispersion as a mechanism for fractal scaling in stream tracer concentrations, Journal of Hydrology, 254(1-4), 82-101. Ruiz, L., S. Abiven, C. Martin, P. Durand, V. Beaujouan, and J. Molenat (2002), Effect on nitrate concentration in stream water of agricultural practices in small catchments in Brittany : II. Temporal variations and mixing processes, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 6(3), 507-513.

  19. Uranium sorption to natural substrates-insights provided by isotope exchange, selective extraction and surface complexation modelling approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waite, T.D.; Payne T.E.; Davis, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    An extensive experimental program has been conducted over the last three years into the interaction of U(VI) with both single oxides and clays and complex natural substrates from the weathered zone in the vicinity of a uranium ore body in northern Australia. While iron oxides have frequently been considered to account for much of the uptake on such natural substrates, the results of laboratory open-quotes pH edgeclose quotes studies and of isotope exchange and selective extraction studies suggest that other phases must also play a significant role in controlling the partitioning of U(VI) between solid and solution phases. Supporting studies on kaolinite, the dominant clay in this system, provide insight into the most appropriate method of modelling the interaction of U(VI) with these natural substrates. The problems still remaining in adequately describing sorption of radionuclides and trace elements to complex natural substrates are discussed

  20. Two-dimensional modelling of internal arc effects in an enclosed MV cell provided with a protection porous filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochette, D; Clain, S; Andre, P; Bussiere, W; Gentils, F

    2007-01-01

    Medium voltage (MV) cells have to respect standards (for example IEC ones (IEC TC 17C 2003 IEC 62271-200 High Voltage Switchgear and Controlgear-Part 200 1st edn)) that define security levels against internal arc faults such as an accidental electrical arc occurring in the apparatus. New protection filters based on porous materials are developed to provide better energy absorption properties and a higher protection level for people. To study the filter behaviour during a major electrical accident, a two-dimensional model is proposed. The main point is the use of a dedicated numerical scheme for a non-conservative hyperbolic problem. We present a numerical simulation of the process during the first 0.2 s when the safety valve bursts and we compare the numerical results with tests carried out in a high power test laboratory on real electrical apparatus

  1. Two-dimensional modelling of internal arc effects in an enclosed MV cell provided with a protection porous filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochette, D.; Clain, S.; André, P.; Bussière, W.; Gentils, F.

    2007-05-01

    Medium voltage (MV) cells have to respect standards (for example IEC ones (IEC TC 17C 2003 IEC 62271-200 High Voltage Switchgear and Controlgear—Part 200 1st edn)) that define security levels against internal arc faults such as an accidental electrical arc occurring in the apparatus. New protection filters based on porous materials are developed to provide better energy absorption properties and a higher protection level for people. To study the filter behaviour during a major electrical accident, a two-dimensional model is proposed. The main point is the use of a dedicated numerical scheme for a non-conservative hyperbolic problem. We present a numerical simulation of the process during the first 0.2 s when the safety valve bursts and we compare the numerical results with tests carried out in a high power test laboratory on real electrical apparatus.

  2. Two-dimensional modelling of internal arc effects in an enclosed MV cell provided with a protection porous filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochette, D [Laboratoire Arc Electrique et Plasmas Thermiques, CNRS UMR 6069, Universite Blaise Pascal, IUT de Montlucon, Avenue Aristide Briand, BP 2235, 03101 Montlucon Cedex (France); Clain, S [Laboratoire de Mathematiques pour l' Industrie et la Physique, CNRS UMR 5640, Universite Paul Sabatier Toulouse 3, 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France); Andre, P [Laboratoire Arc Electrique et Plasmas Thermiques, CNRS UMR 6069, Universite Blaise Pascal, IUT de Montlucon, Avenue Aristide Briand, BP 2235, 03101 Montlucon Cedex (France); Bussiere, W [Laboratoire Arc Electrique et Plasmas Thermiques, CNRS UMR 6069, Universite Blaise Pascal, IUT de Montlucon, Avenue Aristide Briand, BP 2235, 03101 Montlucon Cedex (France); Gentils, F [Schneider Electric-Science and Technology Division-Research Center A2, 38050 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2007-05-21

    Medium voltage (MV) cells have to respect standards (for example IEC ones (IEC TC 17C 2003 IEC 62271-200 High Voltage Switchgear and Controlgear-Part 200 1st edn)) that define security levels against internal arc faults such as an accidental electrical arc occurring in the apparatus. New protection filters based on porous materials are developed to provide better energy absorption properties and a higher protection level for people. To study the filter behaviour during a major electrical accident, a two-dimensional model is proposed. The main point is the use of a dedicated numerical scheme for a non-conservative hyperbolic problem. We present a numerical simulation of the process during the first 0.2 s when the safety valve bursts and we compare the numerical results with tests carried out in a high power test laboratory on real electrical apparatus.

  3. A model for determining when an analysis contains sufficient detail to provide adequate NEPA coverage for a proposed action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eccleston, C.H.

    1994-11-01

    Neither the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) nor its subsequent regulations provide substantive guidance for determining the Level of detail, discussion, and analysis that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. Yet, decisionmakers are routinely confronted with the problem of making such determinations. Experience has shown that no two decisionmakers are Likely to completely agree on the amount of discussion that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. one decisionmaker may determine that a certain Level of analysis is adequate, while another may conclude the exact opposite. Achieving a consensus within the agency and among the public can be problematic. Lacking definitive guidance, decisionmakers and critics alike may point to a universe of potential factors as the basis for defending their claim that an action is or is not adequately covered. Experience indicates that assertions are often based on ambiguous opinions that can be neither proved nor disproved. Lack of definitive guidance slows the decisionmaking process and can result in project delays. Furthermore, it can also Lead to inconsistencies in decisionmaking, inappropriate Levels of NEPA documentation, and increased risk of a project being challenged for inadequate coverage. A more systematic and less subjective approach for making such determinations is obviously needed. A paradigm for reducing the degree of subjectivity inherent in such decisions is presented in the following paper. The model is specifically designed to expedite the decisionmaking process by providing a systematic approach for making these determination. In many cases, agencies may find that using this model can reduce the analysis and size of NEPA documents

  4. A structural equation model of patient-healthcare provider relationships and HIV-infected patient outcomes in Chinese populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Ti; Shiu, Chengshi; Yang, Joyce P; Chuang, Peing; Zhang, Lin; Bao, Meijuan; Lu, Hongzhou

    2018-03-01

    Obtaining maximum antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for maintaining a high CD4 count and strong immune function in PLWHA. Key factors for achieving optimum adherence include good medication self-efficacy, decreased medication-taking difficulties, and positive patient-healthcare provider (HCP) relationships. Limited studies have analyzed the correlation of these factors and ART adherence in Chinese population. In this paper, structural equation modeling was performed to assess the proposed model of relations between patient-HCP relationships and adherence. Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI) software was used to collect data on ART adherence and patient variables among 227 PLWHA in Shanghai and Taipei. Participants completed a one-time 60-minute ACASI survey that consisted of standardized measures to assess demographics, recent CD4 counts, self-efficacy, patient-HCP relationship, adherence, and medication-taking difficulties. The data shown the relationship between patient-HCP relationships and adherence was significantly consistent with mediation by medication self-efficacy. However, patient-HCP interaction did not directly influence medication-taking difficulties, and medication-taking difficulties did not significantly affect CD4 counts. Furthermore, patient-HCP interactions did not directly impact CD4 counts; rather, the relation was consistent with mediation (by either better medication self-efficacy or better adherence) or by improved adherence alone. Future interventions should be designed to enhance self-management and provide better patient-HCP communication. This improved communication will enhance medication self-efficacy and decrease medication-taking difficulties. This in turn will improve medication adherence and immune function among PLWHA.

  5. Supplementary Material for: Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole genome sequencing and protein structure modelling provides insights into anti-tuberculosis drug resistance

    KAUST Repository

    Phelan, Jody

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background Combating the spread of drug resistant tuberculosis is a global health priority. Whole genome association studies are being applied to identify genetic determinants of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. Protein structure and interaction modelling are used to understand the functional effects of putative mutations and provide insight into the molecular mechanisms leading to resistance. Methods To investigate the potential utility of these approaches, we analysed the genomes of 144 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) collection sourced from 20 countries in four continents. A genome-wide approach was applied to 127 isolates to identify polymorphisms associated with minimum inhibitory concentrations for first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. In addition, the effect of identified candidate mutations on protein stability and interactions was assessed quantitatively with well-established computational methods. Results The analysis revealed that mutations in the genes rpoB (rifampicin), katG (isoniazid), inhA-promoter (isoniazid), rpsL (streptomycin) and embB (ethambutol) were responsible for the majority of resistance observed. A subset of the mutations identified in rpoB and katG were predicted to affect protein stability. Further, a strong direct correlation was observed between the minimum inhibitory concentration values and the distance of the mutated residues in the three-dimensional structures of rpoB and katG to their respective drugs binding sites. Conclusions Using the TDR resource, we demonstrate the usefulness of whole genome association and convergent evolution approaches to detect known and potentially novel mutations associated with drug resistance. Further, protein structural modelling could provide a means of predicting the impact of polymorphisms on drug efficacy in the absence of phenotypic data. These approaches could ultimately lead to novel

  6. Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole genome sequencing and protein structure modelling provides insights into anti-tuberculosis drug resistance

    KAUST Repository

    Phelan, Jody

    2016-03-23

    Background Combating the spread of drug resistant tuberculosis is a global health priority. Whole genome association studies are being applied to identify genetic determinants of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. Protein structure and interaction modelling are used to understand the functional effects of putative mutations and provide insight into the molecular mechanisms leading to resistance. Methods To investigate the potential utility of these approaches, we analysed the genomes of 144 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) collection sourced from 20 countries in four continents. A genome-wide approach was applied to 127 isolates to identify polymorphisms associated with minimum inhibitory concentrations for first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. In addition, the effect of identified candidate mutations on protein stability and interactions was assessed quantitatively with well-established computational methods. Results The analysis revealed that mutations in the genes rpoB (rifampicin), katG (isoniazid), inhA-promoter (isoniazid), rpsL (streptomycin) and embB (ethambutol) were responsible for the majority of resistance observed. A subset of the mutations identified in rpoB and katG were predicted to affect protein stability. Further, a strong direct correlation was observed between the minimum inhibitory concentration values and the distance of the mutated residues in the three-dimensional structures of rpoB and katG to their respective drugs binding sites. Conclusions Using the TDR resource, we demonstrate the usefulness of whole genome association and convergent evolution approaches to detect known and potentially novel mutations associated with drug resistance. Further, protein structural modelling could provide a means of predicting the impact of polymorphisms on drug efficacy in the absence of phenotypic data. These approaches could ultimately lead to novel resistance

  7. The PROMIS model to highlight the importance of the foetus to the validation of a pregnant woman model

    OpenAIRE

    AURIAULT, Florent; THOLLON, Lionel; PERES, Jérémie; DELOTTE, J; KAYVANTASH, K; BRUNET, Christian; BEHR, Michel

    2013-01-01

    The percentage of trauma during pregnancy related to road accident is between 50% and 75%. This type of trauma can result in premature birth or even foetal loss. To analyse and understand the injury mechanisms in pregnant women involved in a car accident, several studies proposed computational or physical tools to simulate accidents. Specific dummy and numerical models have been proposed and validated using experimental data from post-mortem human surrogate (PMHS) scaled with the equal-stress...

  8. Modeling the gas-particle partitioning of secondary organic aerosol: the importance of liquid-liquid phase separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zuend

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The partitioning of semivolatile organic compounds between the gas phase and aerosol particles is an important source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA. Gas-particle partitioning of organic and inorganic species is influenced by the physical state and water content of aerosols, and therefore ambient relative humidity (RH, as well as temperature and organic loading levels. We introduce a novel combination of the thermodynamic models AIOMFAC (for liquid mixture non-ideality and EVAPORATION (for pure compound vapor pressures with oxidation product information from the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM for the computation of gas-particle partitioning of organic compounds and water. The presence and impact of a liquid-liquid phase separation in the condensed phase is calculated as a function of variations in relative humidity, organic loading levels, and associated changes in aerosol composition. We show that a complex system of water, ammonium sulfate, and SOA from the ozonolysis of α-pinene exhibits liquid-liquid phase separation over a wide range of relative humidities (simulated from 30% to 99% RH. Since fully coupled phase separation and gas-particle partitioning calculations are computationally expensive, several simplified model approaches are tested with regard to computational costs and accuracy of predictions compared to the benchmark calculation. It is shown that forcing a liquid one-phase aerosol with or without consideration of non-ideal mixing bears the potential for vastly incorrect partitioning predictions. Assuming an ideal mixture leads to substantial overestimation of the particulate organic mass, by more than 100% at RH values of 80% and by more than 200% at RH values of 95%. Moreover, the simplified one-phase cases stress two key points for accurate gas-particle partitioning calculations: (1 non-ideality in the condensed phase needs to be considered and (2 liquid-liquid phase separation is a consequence of considerable deviations

  9. Issues and Importance of "Good" Starting Points for Nonlinear Regression for Mathematical Modeling with Maple: Basic Model Fitting to Make Predictions with Oscillating Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, William

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of our modeling effort is to predict future outcomes. We assume the data collected are both accurate and relatively precise. For our oscillating data, we examined several mathematical modeling forms for predictions. We also examined both ignoring the oscillations as an important feature and including the oscillations as an important…

  10. A model to identify mathematics topics in MXit lingo to provide tutors quick access to supporting documentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Butgereit

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Dr MathTM is a mobile, online tutoring system where learners can use MXitTM on their mobile phones to receive help with their mathematics homework from volunteer tutors. These conversations between learners and Dr Math are held in MXit lingo. MXit lingo is a heavily abbreviated, English-like language that is evolving between users of mobile phones that communicate using MXit. The Dr Math project has been running since January 2007 and uses volunteer tutors who are mostly university students who readily understand and use MXit lingo. However, due to the large number of simultaneous conversations that the tutors are often involved in and the diversity of topics discussed, it would often be beneficial to provide assistance regarding the mathematics topic to the tutors. This article explains how the μ model identifies the mathematics topic in the conversation. The model identifies appropriate mathematics topics in just over 75% of conversations in a corpus of conversations identified to be about mathematics topics in the school curriculum.

  11. Non-Model-Based Control of a Wheeled Vehicle Pulling Two Trailers to Provide Early Powered Mobility and Driving Experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders Td Vr, David A

    2018-01-01

    Non-model-based control of a wheeled vehicle pulling two trailers is proposed. It is a fun train for disabled children consisting of a locomotive and two carriages. The fun train has afforded opportunities for both disabled and able bodied young people to share an activity and has provided early driving experiences for disabled children; it has introduced them to assistive and powered mobility. The train is a nonlinear system and subject to nonholonomic kinematic constraints, so that position and state depend on the path taken to get there. The train is described, and then, a robust control algorithm using proportional-derivative filtered errors is proposed to control the locomotive. The controller was not dependent on an accurate model of the train, because the mass of the vehicle and two carriages changed depending on the number, size, and shape of children and wheelchair seats on the train. The controller was robust and stable in uncertainty. Results are presented to show the effectiveness of the approach, and the suggested control algorithm is shown to be acceptable without knowing the exact plant dynamics.

  12. A Multi-Period Optimization Model for Service Providers Using Online Reservation Systems: An Application to Hotels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ming; Jiao, Yan; Li, Xiaoming; Cao, Qingfeng; Wang, Xiaoyang

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period optimization model for high margin and zero salvage products in online distribution channels with classifying customers based on number of products required. Taking hotel customers as an example, one is regular customers who reserve rooms for one day, and the other is long term stay (LTS) customers who reserve rooms for a number of days. LTS may guarantee a specific amount of demand and generate opportunity income for a certain number of periods, meanwhile with risk of punishment incurred by overselling. By developing an operational optimization model and exploring the effects of parameters on optimal decisions, we suggest that service providers should make decisions based on the types of customers, number of products required, and duration of multi-period to reduce the loss of reputation and obtain more profit; at the same time, multi-period buying customers should buy products early. Finally, the paper conducts a numerical experiment, and the results are consistent with prevailing situations.

  13. A Multi-Period Optimization Model for Service Providers Using Online Reservation Systems: An Application to Hotels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ming; Jiao, Yan; Li, Xiaoming; Cao, Qingfeng; Wang, Xiaoyang

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period optimization model for high margin and zero salvage products in online distribution channels with classifying customers based on number of products required. Taking hotel customers as an example, one is regular customers who reserve rooms for one day, and the other is long term stay (LTS) customers who reserve rooms for a number of days. LTS may guarantee a specific amount of demand and generate opportunity income for a certain number of periods, meanwhile with risk of punishment incurred by overselling. By developing an operational optimization model and exploring the effects of parameters on optimal decisions, we suggest that service providers should make decisions based on the types of customers, number of products required, and duration of multi-period to reduce the loss of reputation and obtain more profit; at the same time, multi-period buying customers should buy products early. Finally, the paper conducts a numerical experiment, and the results are consistent with prevailing situations. PMID:26147663

  14. Simulations of CYP51A from Aspergillus fumigatus in a model bilayer provide insights into triazole drug resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Anthony; Rhodes, Johanna

    2018-04-01

    Azole antifungal drugs target CYP51A in Aspergillus fumigatus by binding with the active site of the protein, blocking ergosterol biosynthesis. Resistance to azole antifungal drugs is now common, with a leucine to histidine amino acid substitution at position 98 the most frequent, predominantly conferring resistance to itraconazole, although cross-resistance has been reported in conjunction with other mutations. In this study, we create a homology model of CYP51A using a recently published crystal structure of the paralog protein CYP51B. The derived structures, wild type, and L98H mutant are positioned within a lipid membrane bilayer and subjected to molecular dynamics simulations in order improve the accuracy of both models. The structural analysis from our simulations suggests a decrease in active site surface from the formation of hydrogen bonds between the histidine substitution and neighboring polar side chains, potentially preventing the binding of azole drugs. This study yields a biologically relevant structure and set of dynamics of the A. fumigatus Lanosterol 14 alpha-demethylase enzyme and provides further insight into azole antifungal drug resistance.

  15. Prevalence, level and distribution of Salmonella in shipments of imported capsicum and sesame seed spice offered for entry to the United States: observations and modeling results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Doren, Jane M; Blodgett, Robert J; Pouillot, Régis; Westerman, Ann; Kleinmeier, Daria; Ziobro, George C; Ma, Yinqing; Hammack, Thomas S; Gill, Vikas; Muckenfuss, Martin F; Fabbri, Linda

    2013-12-01

    In response to increased concerns about spice safety, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiated research to characterize the prevalence and levels of Salmonella in imported spices. 299 imported dried capsicum shipments and 233 imported sesame seed shipments offered for entry to the United States were sampled. Observed Salmonella shipment prevalence was 3.3% (1500 g examined; 95% CI 1.6-6.1%) for capsicum and 9.9% (1500 g; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 6.3-14%) for sesame seed. Within shipment contamination was not inconsistent with a Poisson distribution. Shipment mean Salmonella level estimates among contaminated shipments ranged from 6 × 10(-4) to 0.09 (capsicum) or 6 × 10(-4) to 0.04 (sesame seed) MPN/g. A gamma-Poisson model provided the best fit to observed data for both imported shipments of capsicum and imported shipments of sesame seed sampled in this study among the six parametric models considered. Shipment mean levels of Salmonella vary widely between shipments; many contaminated shipments contain low levels of contamination. Examination of sampling plan efficacy for identifying contaminated spice shipments from these distributions indicates that sample size of spice examined is critical. Sampling protocols examining 25 g samples are predicted to be able to identify a small fraction of contaminated shipments of imported capsicum or sesame seeds. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Immunization with lipopolysaccharide-deficient whole cells provides protective immunity in an experimental mouse model of Acinetobacter baumannii infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meritxell García-Quintanilla

    Full Text Available The increasing clinical importance of infections caused by multidrug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii warrants the development of novel approaches for prevention and treatment. In this context, vaccination of certain patient populations may contribute to reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by this pathogen. Vaccines against Gram-negative bacteria based on inactivated bacterial cells are highly immunogenic and have been shown to produce protective immunity against a number of bacterial species. However, the high endotoxin levels present in these vaccines due to the presence of lipopolysaccharide complicates their use in human vaccination. In the present study, we used a laboratory-derived strain of A. baumannii that completely lacks lipopolysaccharide due to a mutation in the lpxD gene (IB010, one of the genes involved in the first steps of lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis, for vaccination. We demonstrate that IB010 has greatly reduced endotoxin content (<1.0 endotoxin unit/106 cells compared to wild type cells. Immunization with formalin inactivated IB010 produced a robust antibody response consisting of both IgG1 and IgG2c subtypes. Mice immunized with IB010 had significantly lower post-infection tissue bacterial loads and significantly lower serum levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β, TNF-α and IL-6 compared to control mice in a mouse model of disseminated A. baumannii infection. Importantly, immunized mice were protected from infection with the ATCC 19606 strain and an A. baumannii clinical isolate. These data suggest that immunization with inactivated A. baumannii whole cells deficient in lipopolysaccharide could serve as the basis for a vaccine for the prevention of infection caused by A. baumannii.

  17. Using a computerized provider order entry system to meet the unique prescribing needs of children: description of an advanced dosing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellenberger Patricia

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well known that the information requirements necessary to safely treat children with therapeutic medications cannot be met with the same approaches used in adults. Over a 1-year period, Duke University Hospital engaged in the challenging task of enhancing an established computerized provider order entry (CPOE system to address the unique medication dosing needs of pediatric patients. Methods An advanced dosing model (ADM was designed to interact with our existing CPOE application to provide decision support enabling complex pediatric dose calculations based on chronological age, gestational age, weight, care area in the hospital, indication, and level of renal impairment. Given that weight is a critical component of medication dosing that may change over time, alerting logic was added to guard against erroneous entry or outdated weight information. Results Pediatric CPOE was deployed in a staggered fashion across 6 care areas over a 14-month period. Safeguards to prevent miskeyed values became important in allowing providers the flexibility to override the ADM logic if desired. Methods to guard against over- and under-dosing were added. The modular nature of our model allows us to easily add new dosing scenarios for specialized populations as the pediatric population and formulary change over time. Conclusions The medical needs of pediatric patients vary greatly from those of adults, and the information systems that support those needs require tailored approaches to design and implementation. When a single CPOE system is used for both adults and pediatrics, safeguards such as redirection and suppression must be used to protect children from inappropriate adult medication dosing content. Unlike other pediatric dosing systems, our model provides active dosing assistance and dosing process management, not just static dosing advice.

  18. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  19. Modelling local distribution of an Arctic dwarf shrub indicates an important role for remote sensing of snow cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, PSA; Kalmbach, E; Joly, D; Stien, A; Nilsen, L

    2005-01-01

    Despite the intensive research effort directed at predicting the effects of climate change on plants in the Arctic, the impact of environmental change on species' distributions remains difficult to quantify. Predictive habitat distribution models provide a tool to predict the geographical

  20. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hester Korthals Altes

    Full Text Available While tuberculosis (TB represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI. Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers: Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that

  1. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korthals Altes, Hester; Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin

    2018-01-01

    While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting

  2. On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stisen, S.; Højberg, A. L.; Troldborg, L.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Christensen, B. S. B.; Olsen, M.; Henriksen, H. J.

    2012-11-01

    Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM) and the time-space variable (TSV) correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990-2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model), revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests). We conclude that TSV

  3. On the importance of appropriate precipitation gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stisen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation gauge catch correction is often given very little attention in hydrological modelling compared to model parameter calibration. This is critical because significant precipitation biases often make the calibration exercise pointless, especially when supposedly physically-based models are in play. This study addresses the general importance of appropriate precipitation catch correction through a detailed modelling exercise. An existing precipitation gauge catch correction method addressing solid and liquid precipitation is applied, both as national mean monthly correction factors based on a historic 30 yr record and as gridded daily correction factors based on local daily observations of wind speed and temperature. The two methods, named the historic mean monthly (HMM and the time–space variable (TSV correction, resulted in different winter precipitation rates for the period 1990–2010. The resulting precipitation datasets were evaluated through the comprehensive Danish National Water Resources model (DK-Model, revealing major differences in both model performance and optimised model parameter sets. Simulated stream discharge is improved significantly when introducing the TSV correction, whereas the simulated hydraulic heads and multi-annual water balances performed similarly due to recalibration adjusting model parameters to compensate for input biases. The resulting optimised model parameters are much more physically plausible for the model based on the TSV correction of precipitation. A proxy-basin test where calibrated DK-Model parameters were transferred to another region without site specific calibration showed better performance for parameter values based on the TSV correction. Similarly, the performances of the TSV correction method were superior when considering two single years with a much dryer and a much wetter winter, respectively, as compared to the winters in the calibration period (differential split-sample tests

  4. Importance of channel coupling for very large angle proton-nucleus scattering and the failure of the optical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amado, R.D.; Sparrow, D.A.

    1984-01-01

    The importance of inelastic channels in proton-nucleus scattering grows with momentum transfer, q, so that for large q coupled channels are required. This happens when the elastic and inelastic cross sections become comparable. We incorporate these ideas in a simple analytic framework to explain the large angle p- 208 Pb elastic scattering data at 800 MeV for which standard optical model calculations have failed completely

  5. Prospective molecular profiling of canine cancers provides a clinically relevant comparative model for evaluating personalized medicine (PMed trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Paoloni

    Full Text Available Molecularly-guided trials (i.e. PMed now seek to aid clinical decision-making by matching cancer targets with therapeutic options. Progress has been hampered by the lack of cancer models that account for individual-to-individual heterogeneity within and across cancer types. Naturally occurring cancers in pet animals are heterogeneous and thus provide an opportunity to answer questions about these PMed strategies and optimize translation to human patients. In order to realize this opportunity, it is now necessary to demonstrate the feasibility of conducting molecularly-guided analysis of tumors from dogs with naturally occurring cancer in a clinically relevant setting.A proof-of-concept study was conducted by the Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium (COTC to determine if tumor collection, prospective molecular profiling, and PMed report generation within 1 week was feasible in dogs. Thirty-one dogs with cancers of varying histologies were enrolled. Twenty-four of 31 samples (77% successfully met all predefined QA/QC criteria and were analyzed via Affymetrix gene expression profiling. A subsequent bioinformatics workflow transformed genomic data into a personalized drug report. Average turnaround from biopsy to report generation was 116 hours (4.8 days. Unsupervised clustering of canine tumor expression data clustered by cancer type, but supervised clustering of tumors based on the personalized drug report clustered by drug class rather than cancer type.Collection and turnaround of high quality canine tumor samples, centralized pathology, analyte generation, array hybridization, and bioinformatic analyses matching gene expression to therapeutic options is achievable in a practical clinical window (<1 week. Clustering data show robust signatures by cancer type but also showed patient-to-patient heterogeneity in drug predictions. This lends further support to the inclusion of a heterogeneous population of dogs with cancer into the preclinical

  6. The ‘soft’ importance of energy modelling tools and their absence in Albania’s delivery strategy of energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qystri, Arber; Koço, Marpol

    2015-01-01

    Energy is essential for all human activities, and its availability is critical to economic and social development. Energy is the engine for the production of goods and services across all economic sectors. Lack of energy is a contributing factor to the poverty of individuals, communities, nations and regions. Energy mix visions and strategies are determining an important part of our world’s future prosperity and welfare. Choices made now are important for future generations. Energy trend forecasting, scenarios and system analysis have matured into powerful modelling tools for providing advice on optimizing our future energy solutions. The choice of the model and its effectiveness for developing energy supply strategies critically depend on the underlying vision for achieving a future energy mix. Knowledge advancement and exchange are more important than ever before, because this will stimulate and optimize the vision sharing and further the integration of today’s diverse energy strategies. In this regard, in Albania there is an absence in applying this tools. This article aims to demonstrate the vital importance of this tools to create a sustainable future, moreover in Albania where the energy sector is facing financial and management difficulties and lack of vision. Key words: energy, energy models, tools, sustainable energy, energy sector, energy strategy

  7. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin

    2018-01-01

    While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation–either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995–2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting

  8. Key components of a service model providing early childhood support for women attending opioid treatment clinics: an Australian state health service review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Susan R; Schmied, Virginia; Nicholls, Daniel; Dahlen, Hannah

    2012-09-01

    To report the findings of a service review--specifically the strategy to provide early childhood services 'on site' at opioid treatment clinics to address access difficulties. Child and family health nurses are skilled in the assessment and support of families during early childhood. However, women with a history of substance abuse are often cautious when engaging with universal and other health services, with the result that the infant may miss recommended developmental screening and early referral to improve health outcomes. In 2006, an internal review was undertaken of the integration of early childhood and parenting services at opioid treatment clinics in a large Area Health Service of New South Wales, Australia. A qualitative study design, using semi-structured interview questions was used. Data were collected via six focus groups (4-15 participants in each group) and individual interview of child and family health nurses, nurse unit managers and clinical staff (n=58). Three key components of a model for providing early childhood support in collaboration with opioid treatment services were identified. First, the importance of building a trusting relationship between the woman and the child and family health nurses, second, maintaining continuity of care and a multidisciplinary/multiagency approach, and finally the importance of staff education, support and professional development. The provision of early childhood and parenting services on site, as part of a multidisciplinary 'one stop shop' approach to service delivery was a clear recommendation of the review. Reduction of access difficulties to specialised early childhood support is of benefit to clients, community health services attempting to provide a service to this difficult to reach population and to drug and alcohol services seeking to provide a high level of holistic care for clients. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. A combined Importance Sampling and Kriging reliability method for small failure probabilities with time-demanding numerical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echard, B.; Gayton, N.; Lemaire, M.; Relun, N.

    2013-01-01

    Applying reliability methods to a complex structure is often delicate for two main reasons. First, such a structure is fortunately designed with codified rules leading to a large safety margin which means that failure is a small probability event. Such a probability level is difficult to assess efficiently. Second, the structure mechanical behaviour is modelled numerically in an attempt to reproduce the real response and numerical model tends to be more and more time-demanding as its complexity is increased to improve accuracy and to consider particular mechanical behaviour. As a consequence, performing a large number of model computations cannot be considered in order to assess the failure probability. To overcome these issues, this paper proposes an original and easily implementable method called AK-IS for active learning and Kriging-based Importance Sampling. This new method is based on the AK-MCS algorithm previously published by Echard et al. [AK-MCS: an active learning reliability method combining Kriging and Monte Carlo simulation. Structural Safety 2011;33(2):145–54]. It associates the Kriging metamodel and its advantageous stochastic property with the Importance Sampling method to assess small failure probabilities. It enables the correction or validation of the FORM approximation with only a very few mechanical model computations. The efficiency of the method is, first, proved on two academic applications. It is then conducted for assessing the reliability of a challenging aerospace case study submitted to fatigue.

  10. a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

    2010-06-01

    The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

  11. The Importance of Non-neuronal Cell Types in hiPSC-Based Disease Modeling and Drug Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Gonzalez

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Current applications of human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC technologies in patient-specific models of neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders tend to focus on neuronal phenotypes. Here, we review recent efforts toward advancing hiPSCs toward non-neuronal cell types of the central nervous system (CNS and highlight their potential use for the development of more complex in vitro models of neurodevelopment and disease. We present evidence from previous works in both rodents and humans of the importance of these cell types (oligodendrocytes, microglia, astrocytes in neurological disease and highlight new hiPSC-based models that have sought to explore these relationships in vitro. Lastly, we summarize efforts toward conducting high-throughput screening experiments with hiPSCs and propose methods by which new screening platforms could be designed to better capture complex relationships between neural cell populations in health and disease.

  12. Risk of cancer in the vicinity of municipal solid waste incinerators: importance of using a flexible modelling strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goria Sarah

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We conducted an ecological study in four French administrative departments and highlighted an excess risk in cancer morbidity for residents around municipal solid waste incinerators. The aim of this paper is to show how important are advanced tools and statistical techniques to better assess weak associations between the risk of cancer and past environmental exposures. Methods The steps to evaluate the association between the risk of cancer and the exposure to incinerators, from the assessment of exposure to the definition of the confounding variables and the statistical analysis carried out are detailed and discussed. Dispersion modelling was used to assess exposure to sixteen incinerators. A geographical information system was developed to define an index of exposure at the IRIS level that is the geographical unit we considered. Population density, rural/urban status, socio-economic deprivation, exposure to air pollution from traffic and from other industries were considered as potential confounding factors and defined at the IRIS level. Generalized additive models and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate the association between the risk of cancer and the index of exposure to incinerators accounting for the confounding factors. Results Modelling to assess the exposure to municipal solid waste incinerators allowed accounting for factors known to influence the exposure (meteorological data, point source characteristics, topography. The statistical models defined allowed modelling extra-Poisson variability and also non-linear relationships between the risk of cancer and the exposure to incinerators and the confounders. Conclusion In most epidemiological studies distance is still used as a proxy for exposure. This can lead to significant exposure misclassification. Additionally, in geographical correlation studies the non-linear relationships are usually not accounted for in the statistical analysis. In studies of

  13. Importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Cobo, A.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following: general concepts of importance measures; example fault tree, used to illustrate importance measures; Birnbaum's structural importance; criticality importance; Fussel-Vesely importance; upgrading function; risk achievement worth; risk reduction worth

  14. Results of development and field tests of a radar-tracer system providing meteorological support to modeling hazardous technological releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shershakov, V.M.; Zukov, G.P.; Kosykh, V.S.

    2003-01-01

    radiation monitoring laboratory and the LDU was on the bank of the cooling pond. The main characteristics of a cloud of substances are standard deviations in the spatial concentration distributions in the cloud along mutually perpendicular directions, which are representative spatial scales of the cloud in these directions. The squares of these values are relative variances of the cloud. These characteristics were the first to determine and are among the most important input parameters in different models assessing transport and dispersion of hazardous substances. Dispersion of a cloud of substances is influenced by turbulence and vertical shifts of the mean wind speed, with the patterns of dispersion being different depending an diffusion time (or distance to a source). The results of the conducted experiments have revealed an important advantage of the used radar complex in terms of support to predictions of possible contamination in case of release of hazardous materials. As the chaff cloud moves with the wind and is dispersed, it echoes the meteorological situation at a given time moment (vertical wind distribution and air temperature, turbulence level, boundary layer thickness, type of underlying surface) and any changes occurring in the conditions on its way. Based on obtained radar data, the radar complex is capable of assessing the dispersion parameters which can then be used in the mathematical transport and dispersion models. What's more, determination of these parameters does not require any meteorological measurements. In addition, using data about movement of the cloud centroid, the wind speed and direction is estimated at the release height by the radar complex itself. The conducted experiments have shown that the developed technology makes possible measuring key parameters of a cloud of substances at the height of dispersion and taking into account local features of the distribution of meteorological quantities occurring in the vicinity of a source. This

  15. The importance of statistical modelling in clinical research : Comparing multidimensional Rasch-, structural equation and linear regression models for analyzing the depression of relatives of psychiatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; Jahn, Rebecca; Friedrich, Fabian; Unger, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Various studies have shown that caregiving relatives of schizophrenic patients are at risk of suffering from depression. These studies differ with respect to the applied statistical methods, which could influence the findings. Therefore, the present study analyzes to which extent different methods may cause differing results. The present study contrasts by means of one data set the results of three different modelling approaches, Rasch Modelling (RM), Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and Linear Regression Modelling (LRM). The results of the three models varied considerably, reflecting the different assumptions of the respective models. Latent trait models (i. e., RM and SEM) generally provide more convincing results by correcting for measurement error and the RM specifically proves superior for it treats ordered categorical data most adequately.