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Sample records for models provide important

  1. Diluting the dilution effect: a spatial Lyme model provides evidence for the importance of habitat fragmentation with regard to the risk of infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustín Estrada-Peña

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to construct a spatially-explicit model of Ixodes scapularis infection in the State of New York, USA, based on climate traits, high-resolution landscape features and patch-connectivity according to graph theory. The degree of risk for infection is calculated based on empirical data of host abundance, previous studies on host infectivity rates and tick preferences towards a given host. The outcome signifies what is called the “recruitment of infection”, i.e. an index representing the abundance of infected ticks in a particular patch of vegetation. The results show that the I. scapularis recruitment of infection (IR index is highly dependent upon a complex array of landscape fragmentation and the presence of key hosts. Neither faunal richness nor host density alone has any reasonable effect on the recruitment of infection. The experience of Lyme disease in the State of New York shows no clear relationship between the IR as calculated at the patch level and then summarized county by county and the rates of disease over the last eight years reported for these counties. However, areas characterized by low IR have consistently been associated with locations with low disease rates. Above all, the low levels of disease are related to minimal suitability due to the climate and negligible connection between patches. Social factors, mainly activities leading to an increased contact of humans with infective foci (which can be situated far from their homes, may lead to a high rates being reported from areas with high human densities rather than areas characterized by a high recruitment of infection. The spatial model developed here may be used to study the long-term changes in infective risk and tick recruitment as a result of humaninduced changes in the landscape.

  2. Providing medical marijuana: the importance of cannabis clubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, H W; Mandel, J

    1998-01-01

    In 1996, shortly after the San Francisco Cannabis Club was raided and (temporarily) closed by state authorities, the authors conducted an ethnographic study by interviewing selected former members to ascertain how they had benefited from the use of medical marijuana and how they had utilized the clubs. Interviews were augmented by participant observation techniques. Respondents reported highly positive health benefits from marijuana itself, and underscored even greater benefits from the social aspects of the clubs, which they described as providing important emotional supports. As such, cannabis clubs serve as crucial support mechanisms/groups for people with a wide variety of serious illnesses and conditions. The authors concluded that of the various methods so far proposed, the cannabis clubs afford the best therapeutic setting for providing medical cannabis and for offering a healing environment composed of like-minded, sympathetic friends.

  3. How important are peatlands globally in providing drinking water resources?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiren; Morris, Paul; Holden, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    The potential role of peatlands as water stores and sources of downstream water resources for human use is often cited in publications setting the context for the importance of peatlands, but is rarely backed up with substantive evidence. We sought to determine the global role of peatlands in water resource provision. We developed the Peat Population Index (PPI) that combines the coverage of peat and the local population density to show focused (hotspot) areas where there is a combination of both large areas of peat and large populations who would potentially use water sourced from those peatlands. We also developed a method for estimating the proportion of river water that interacted with contributing peatlands before draining into rivers and reservoirs used as a drinking water resource. The Peat Reservoir Index (PRI) estimates the contribution of peatlands to domestic water use to be 1.64 km3 per year which is 0.35 % of the global total. The results suggest that although peatlands are widespread, the spatial distribution of the high PPI and PRI river basins is concentrated in European middle latitudes particularly around major conurbations in The Netherlands, northern England, Scotland (Glasgow) and Ireland (Dublin), although there were also some important systems in Florida, the Niger Delta and Malaysia. More detailed research into water resource provision in high PPI areas showed that they were not always also high PRI areas as often water resources were delivered to urban centres from non-peat areas, despite a large area of peat within the catchment. However, particularly in the UK and Ireland, there are some high PRI systems where peatlands directly supply water to nearby urban centres. Thus both indices are useful and can be used at a global level while more local refinement enables enhanced use which supports global and local peatland protection measures. We now intend to study the impacts of peatland degradation and climate change on water resource

  4. Importing CAD models into MONK and MCBEND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searson, K.; Fleurot, F.; Cooper, A. J.; Cowan, P.

    2009-01-01

    The direct use of Computer Aided Design (CAD) models in criticality and shielding codes has been a long standing goal for Sellafield Ltd. Such functionality could offer several advantages over the traditional method of text based modelling systems. Analysts would be able to take advantage of the advanced Graphical User Interface based modelling features provided by solid modelers, potentially reducing the costs associated with creating models in a format suitable for the analyst's criticality and shielding code. A prototype system has been developed that allows CAD models created in Autodesk Inventor or Solidworks to be used in criticality and shielding calculations. The system is based on the ANSI Initial Graphics Exchange Specification 5.3 standard and models are exported from the CAD software in Trimmed NURBS format. The format retains much more of the model's geometrical information than a format based on solid meshing techniques and avoids many of the associated problems such as large memory costs, surface approximations and void spaces. The time consuming and complex meshing process is also avoided. Runtime intersection calculations are performed using either a Bezier clipping process for NURBS based surface definitions, or by transforming the coordinate system through which the ray tracks for Surface of Revolution calculations. NURBS surfaces are therefore converted to Bezier form as the model is imported. In addition, the SR generatrix is, in general, converted to a 'strip tree' representation, allowing the SR intersection calculations to be performed with arbitrary generatrix shapes. Details of recent improvements to the Bezier clipping process are provided. Reduction in runtime of SR based Solidworks models over equivalent NURBS based Autodesk Inventor models is also demonstrated. (authors)

  5. Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel L.; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M.; Parravicini, Valeriano

    2018-01-01

    Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future. PMID:29503866

  6. Coral reef structural complexity provides important coastal protection from waves under rising sea levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel L; Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Power, Hannah; Canavesio, Remy; Collin, Antoine; Pomeroy, Andrew; Webster, Jody M; Parravicini, Valeriano

    2018-02-01

    Coral reefs are diverse ecosystems that support millions of people worldwide by providing coastal protection from waves. Climate change and human impacts are leading to degraded coral reefs and to rising sea levels, posing concerns for the protection of tropical coastal regions in the near future. We use a wave dissipation model calibrated with empirical wave data to calculate the future increase of back-reef wave height. We show that, in the near future, the structural complexity of coral reefs is more important than sea-level rise in determining the coastal protection provided by coral reefs from average waves. We also show that a significant increase in average wave heights could occur at present sea level if there is sustained degradation of benthic structural complexity. Our results highlight that maintaining the structural complexity of coral reefs is key to ensure coastal protection on tropical coastlines in the future.

  7. Cost Calculation Model for Logistics Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoltán Bokor

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exact calculation of logistics costs has become a real challenge in logistics and supply chain management. It is essential to gain reliable and accurate costing information to attain efficient resource allocation within the logistics service provider companies. Traditional costing approaches, however, may not be sufficient to reach this aim in case of complex and heterogeneous logistics service structures. So this paper intends to explore the ways of improving the cost calculation regimes of logistics service providers and show how to adopt the multi-level full cost allocation technique in logistics practice. After determining the methodological framework, a sample cost calculation scheme is developed and tested by using estimated input data. Based on the theoretical findings and the experiences of the pilot project it can be concluded that the improved costing model contributes to making logistics costing more accurate and transparent. Moreover, the relations between costs and performances also become more visible, which enhances the effectiveness of logistics planning and controlling significantly

  8. Nuclear magnetic resonance provides a quantitative description of protein conformational flexibility on physiologically important time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmon, Loïc; Bouvignies, Guillaume; Markwick, Phineus; Blackledge, Martin

    2011-04-12

    A complete description of biomolecular activity requires an understanding of the nature and the role of protein conformational dynamics. In recent years, novel nuclear magnetic resonance-based techniques that provide hitherto inaccessible detail concerning biomolecular motions occurring on physiologically important time scales have emerged. Residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) provide precise information about time- and ensemble-averaged structural and dynamic processes with correlation times up to the millisecond and thereby encode key information for understanding biological activity. In this review, we present the application of two very different approaches to the quantitative description of protein motion using RDCs. The first is purely analytical, describing backbone dynamics in terms of diffusive motions of each peptide plane, using extensive statistical analysis to validate the proposed dynamic modes. The second is based on restraint-free accelerated molecular dynamics simulation, providing statistically sampled free energy-weighted ensembles that describe conformational fluctuations occurring on time scales from pico- to milliseconds, at atomic resolution. Remarkably, the results from these two approaches converge closely in terms of distribution and absolute amplitude of motions, suggesting that this kind of combination of analytical and numerical models is now capable of providing a unified description of protein conformational dynamics in solution.

  9. Critically Important Object Security System Element Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Khomyackov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic model of critically important object security system element has been developed. The model includes mathematical description of the security system element properties and external influences. The state evolution of the security system element is described by the semi-Markov process with finite states number, the semi-Markov matrix and the initial semi-Markov process states probabilities distribution. External influences are set with the intensity of the Poisson thread.

  10. Animal models: an important tool in mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capilla, Javier; Clemons, Karl V; Stevens, David A

    2007-12-01

    Animal models of fungal infections are, and will remain, a key tool in the advancement of the medical mycology. Many different types of animal models of fungal infection have been developed, with murine models the most frequently used, for studies of pathogenesis, virulence, immunology, diagnosis, and therapy. The ability to control numerous variables in performing the model allows us to mimic human disease states and quantitatively monitor the course of the disease. However, no single model can answer all questions and different animal species or different routes of infection can show somewhat different results. Thus, the choice of which animal model to use must be made carefully, addressing issues of the type of human disease to mimic, the parameters to follow and collection of the appropriate data to answer those questions being asked. This review addresses a variety of uses for animal models in medical mycology. It focuses on the most clinically important diseases affecting humans and cites various examples of the different types of studies that have been performed. Overall, animal models of fungal infection will continue to be valuable tools in addressing questions concerning fungal infections and contribute to our deeper understanding of how these infections occur, progress and can be controlled and eliminated.

  11. Importance of Patient-Provider Communication to Adherence in Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Niral J; Datye, Karishma A; Jaser, Sarah S

    2018-03-28

    Effective communication between pediatric diabetes patients and their providers has the potential to enhance patient satisfaction and health outcomes, as well as improve diabetes-related self-management. In this review, we highlight the importance of communication between patients and providers, focusing on the effect of communication on adherence in the high-risk population of adolescents with type 1 diabetes. We synthesize the literature describing patient-provider communication in pediatric populations and provide implications for practice that focus on the most relevant, modifiable factors for improving self-management in adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

  12. Fuel swelling importance in PCI mechanistic modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arimescu, V.I.

    2005-01-01

    Under certain conditions, fuel pellet swelling is the most important factor in determining the intensity of the pellet-to-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). This is especially true during power ramps, which lead to a temperature increase to a higher terminal plateau that is maintained for hours. The time-dependent gaseous swelling is proportional to temperature and is also enhanced by the increased gas atom migration to the grain boundary during the power ramp. On the other hand, gaseous swelling is inhibited by a compressive hydrostatic stress in the pellet. Therefore, PCMI is the net result of combining gaseous swelling and pellet thermal expansion with the opposing feedback from the cladding mechanical reaction. The coupling of the thermal and mechanical processes, mentioned above, with various feedback loops is best simulated by a mechanistic fuel code. This paper discusses a mechanistic swelling model that is coupled with a fission gas release model as well as a mechanical model of the fuel pellet. The role of fuel swelling is demonstrated for typical power ramps at different burn-ups. Also, fuel swelling plays a significant role in avoiding the thermal instability for larger gap fuel rods, by limiting the potentially exponentially increasing gap due to the positive feedback loop effect of increasing fission gas release and the associated over-pressure inside the cladding. (author)

  13. Role modelling in medical education: the importance of teaching skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Annette; Oates, Kim; Goulston, Kerry

    2016-04-01

    By observation of role models, and participation in activities, students develop their attitudes, values and professional competencies. Literature suggests that clinical skills and knowledge, personality, and teaching skills are three main areas that students consider central to the identification of positive role models. The aim of this study was to explore junior medical students' opinions of the ideal attributes of a good role model in clinical tutors. The study was conducted with one cohort (n = 301) of students who had completed year 1 of the medical programme in 2013. All students were asked to complete a questionnaire regarding the ideal attributes of a good role model in a clinical tutor. The questionnaire consisted of seven closed items and one open-ended question. The response rate to the questionnaire was 265/301 (88%). Although students found all three key areas important in a good role model, students emphasised the importance of excellence in teaching skills. Specifically, students see good role models as being able to provide a constructive learning environment, a good understanding of the curriculum and an ability to cater to the learning needs of all students. Students see good role models as being able to provide a constructive learning environment While acknowledging the importance of a patient-centred approach, as well as clinical knowledge and skills, our findings reinforce the importance of the actual teaching abilities of role models within medical education. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Cartographic modeling: The role and importance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikonović Vesna

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim and sense of cartographic modeling is to represent essential, typical and characteristically attributes of mapping territory. Cartographic modeling is applying in two phases: 1. trough theoretical modeling and creating mind models (by notice relevant factors of space, modeling is in cartographer’s mind and 2. trough practical modeling and making prototype model (continuing and objectification of mind model which one has bigger degree of concrezation and experimented role. The maps are mathematical and logical models, which are not just representing the contents of the real space, but also their specific and relational traits which can’t be seen at first sight. Atlas is modeled contexture contents of treated thematic of space on optimal map union. Atlases are higher form of cartography. Modern computer's technology and specific software make possible better and faster making of all kinds of maps, atlases and spatial analysis connections and relationships among all elements of contents from concrete space which is, until now, demand much more time or they can not imagine.

  15. Mathematical Modeling: Are Prior Experiences Important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czocher, Jennifer A.; Moss, Diana L.

    2017-01-01

    Why are math modeling problems the source of such frustration for students and teachers? The conceptual understanding that students have when engaging with a math modeling problem varies greatly. They need opportunities to make their own assumptions and design the mathematics to fit these assumptions (CCSSI 2010). Making these assumptions is part…

  16. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  17. A logical model provides insights into T cell receptor signaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Saez-Rodriguez

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Cellular decisions are determined by complex molecular interaction networks. Large-scale signaling networks are currently being reconstructed, but the kinetic parameters and quantitative data that would allow for dynamic modeling are still scarce. Therefore, computational studies based upon the structure of these networks are of great interest. Here, a methodology relying on a logical formalism is applied to the functional analysis of the complex signaling network governing the activation of T cells via the T cell receptor, the CD4/CD8 co-receptors, and the accessory signaling receptor CD28. Our large-scale Boolean model, which comprises 94 nodes and 123 interactions and is based upon well-established qualitative knowledge from primary T cells, reveals important structural features (e.g., feedback loops and network-wide dependencies and recapitulates the global behavior of this network for an array of published data on T cell activation in wild-type and knock-out conditions. More importantly, the model predicted unexpected signaling events after antibody-mediated perturbation of CD28 and after genetic knockout of the kinase Fyn that were subsequently experimentally validated. Finally, we show that the logical model reveals key elements and potential failure modes in network functioning and provides candidates for missing links. In summary, our large-scale logical model for T cell activation proved to be a promising in silico tool, and it inspires immunologists to ask new questions. We think that it holds valuable potential in foreseeing the effects of drugs and network modifications.

  18. Importance of plan curvature in watershed modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boll, J.; Ribail, J.; Zhao, M.

    2016-12-01

    A hillslope's hydrologic response to precipitation events is largely controlled by the topographic features of a given hillslope, specifically the profile and plan curvature. Many models simplify hillslope topography and ignore the curvature properties, and some use alternate measures such as a topographic index or the hillslope width function. Models that ignore curvature properties may be calibrated to produce the statistically acceptable integrated response of runoff at a watershed outlet, but incorporating these properties is necessary to model accurately hydrologic processes such as surface flow, erosion, subsurface lateral flow, location of runoff generation and drainage response. In this study, we evaluated the sensitivity of rainfall-runoff modelling to profile and plan curvature in two models. In the first model, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, hillslope uses a representative width to the hillslope by dividing the drainage area by the average surface channel length. Profile curvature is preserved with a limited spatial resolution due to the number of overland flow elements. In the second model, the distributed Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model, the geographic information system uses the D8 algorithm to capture profile and plan curvature. Sensitivity to topographic features was tested for three profile curvatures (convex, concave, straight) combined with three plan curvatures (diverging, converging, uniform) resulting in a total of nine hillslopes. Each hillslope was subjected to different rainfall events to detect threshold behavior for when topographic features cannot be ignored. Our findings indicate that concave and convex plan curvature need to be included when subsurface flow processes are the dominant flow process for surface flow runoff generation. We present thresholds for acceptable cases when profile and plan curvature can be simplified in larger spatial hydrologic units.

  19. The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, M; Graham, S; Bonacum, D

    2004-10-01

    Effective communication and teamwork is essential for the delivery of high quality, safe patient care. Communication failures are an extremely common cause of inadvertent patient harm. The complexity of medical care, coupled with the inherent limitations of human performance, make it critically important that clinicians have standardised communication tools, create an environment in which individuals can speak up and express concerns, and share common "critical language" to alert team members to unsafe situations. All too frequently, effective communication is situation or personality dependent. Other high reliability domains, such as commercial aviation, have shown that the adoption of standardised tools and behaviours is a very effective strategy in enhancing teamwork and reducing risk. We describe our ongoing patient safety implementation using this approach within Kaiser Permanente, a non-profit American healthcare system providing care for 8.3 million patients. We describe specific clinical experience in the application of surgical briefings, properties of high reliability perinatal care, the value of critical event training and simulation, and benefits of a standardised communication process in the care of patients transferred from hospitals to skilled nursing facilities. Additionally, lessons learned as to effective techniques in achieving cultural change, evidence of improving the quality of the work environment, practice transfer strategies, critical success factors, and the evolving methods of demonstrating the benefit of such work are described.

  20. Comprehensive Care For Joint Replacement Model - Provider Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model - provider data. This data set includes provider data for two quality measures tracked during an episode of care:...

  1. Proposition of a multicriteria model to select logistics services providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Catarina Soares Aharonovitz

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to propose a multicriteria model to select logistics service providers by the development of a decision tree. The methodology consists of a survey, which resulted in a sample of 181 responses. The sample was analyzed using statistic methods, descriptive statistics among them, multivariate analysis, variance analysis, and parametric tests to compare means. Based on these results, it was possible to obtain the decision tree and information to support the multicriteria analysis. The AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to determine the data influence and thus ensure better consistency in the analysis. The decision tree categorizes the criteria according to the decision levels (strategic, tactical and operational. Furthermore, it allows to generically evaluate the importance of each criterion in the supplier selection process from the point of view of logistics services contractors.

  2. Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment: A Maturity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luftman, Jerry; Brown, Carol V.; Balaji, S.

    This chapter presents a new model for assessing the maturity of a ­customer-provider relationship from a collaborative service delivery perspective: the Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment Maturity (CPSAM) Model. This model builds on recent research for effectively managing the customer-provider relationship in IT service outsourcing contexts and a validated model for assessing alignment across internal IT service units and their business customers within the same organization. After reviewing relevant literature by service science and information systems researchers, the six overarching components of the maturity model are presented: value measurements, governance, partnership, communications, human resources and skills, and scope and architecture. A key assumption of the model is that all of the components need be addressed to assess and improve customer-provider alignment. Examples of specific metrics for measuring the maturity level of each component over the five levels of maturity are also presented.

  3. A risk assessment model for selecting cloud service providers

    OpenAIRE

    Cayirci, Erdal; Garaga, Alexandr; Santana de Oliveira, Anderson; Roudier, Yves

    2016-01-01

    The Cloud Adoption Risk Assessment Model is designed to help cloud customers in assessing the risks that they face by selecting a specific cloud service provider. It evaluates background information obtained from cloud customers and cloud service providers to analyze various risk scenarios. This facilitates decision making an selecting the cloud service provider with the most preferable risk profile based on aggregated risks to security, privacy, and service delivery. Based on this model we ...

  4. Providing information and enabling transactions: which website function is more important for success?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Janny C.; Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Bijmolt, Tammo H.A.; Krawczyk, Adriana

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we propose and test a chain of effects from website content, through informational and transactional success to overall website success and company performance. This framework enables us to determine the relative importance of the informational and transaction-related website

  5. The Importance of Sensory-Motor Control in Providing Core Stability Implications for Measurement and Training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borghuis, Jan; Hof, At L.; Lemmink, Koen A. P. M.

    2008-01-01

    Although the hip musculature is found to be very important in connecting the core to the lower extremities and in transferring forces from and to the core, it is proposed to leave the hip musculature out of consideration when talking about the concept of core stability. A low level of co-contraction

  6. Contracts in the Classroom--Providing Undergraduate Business Students with Important "Real Life" Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denbo, Susan M.

    2005-01-01

    Many business law educators have recognized the importance of teaching students not only the rules of contract law, but the process of implementing these rules in the "real world" of business. This article discusses a contract negotiation exercise that enables students to apply the black letter law of contracts while at the same time honing their…

  7. A study on important factors influencing customer relationship management: A case study of Mobile service provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naser Azad

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Customers are considered as essential assets in any organizations including mobile services. During the past few years, mobile industry is growing rapidly and the competitions among business owners increases steadily. In this paper, we present an empirical investigation to find important factors influencing customer relationship management. The proposed study of this paper designs a questionnaire and distributes it among 253 customers in mobile industry in city of Tehran, Iran. All questions are designed in Likert scale and Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.816, which is relatively reliable value. There were 28 questions in this survey and the proposed study extracts five important factors including economic factors, communication skills, organizational resources, service capabilities and flexible market.

  8. The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care

    OpenAIRE

    Leonard, M; Graham, S; Bonacum, D

    2004-01-01

    Effective communication and teamwork is essential for the delivery of high quality, safe patient care. Communication failures are an extremely common cause of inadvertent patient harm. The complexity of medical care, coupled with the inherent limitations of human performance, make it critically important that clinicians have standardised communication tools, create an environment in which individuals can speak up and express concerns, and share common "critical language" to alert team members...

  9. The importance of palliative care provided by the nurse for children with cancer in terminal phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williana Pires Araujo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Refletir sobre a importância dos cuidados paliativos prestados pelo enfermeiro à criança com câncer em estágio terminal. Métodos: Estudo de caráter descritivo-exploratória, realizado nas bases de dados: LILACS, BDENF e SCIELO no período de 2000 a 2010, onde selecionou 10 bibliografias potencias. Resultados: As categorias emergentes foram “O enfermeiro e as dificuldades de aceitação da criança em fase terminal”, "A comunicação como elo entre a equipe de enfermagem, criança com câncer e sua família" e "A importância da assistência de enfermagem à criança com câncer em cuidados paliativos". Conclusão: Os resultados deste estudo ratificam a importância da atuação do enfermeiro, onde a proximidade de vínculos permitirá uma prática de enfermagem mais efetiva e consciente entre todos os envolvidos. Descritores: Cuidados Paliativos, Câncer na Criança, Assistência de Enfermagem.

  10. Importance of healthcare utilization and multimorbidity level in choosing a primary care provider in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik; Halling, Anders

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the associations between active choice of primary care provider and healthcare utilization, multimorbidity, age, and sex, comparing data from primary care and all healthcare in a Swedish population. DESIGN: Descriptive cross-sectional study using descriptive analyses including t...

  11. Doping control, providing whereabouts and the importance of privacy for elite athletes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valkenburg, D.; de Hon, O.; van Hilvoorde, I.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: To improve anti-doping efforts in sports, the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) introduced the World Anti-Doping Program, in which (among others) regulations for providing athletes' whereabouts are described. Because the effectiveness and efficiency of this system depends on the

  12. THE VITAL IMPORTANCE OF PROVIDING SOUND SCIENTIFIC ADVICE TO POLICY MAKERS IN GOVERNMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Pearson

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The article gives an idea of the scope of professional activity of scientists working in the field of biosafety in terms of providing timely and effective advice for politicians and diplomats in the government. It should be acknowledged that politicians and diplomats are also involved in a varying degree with biosafety issues such as toxicological and biological weapons, formulated in the relevant Convention: Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. However taking into account their professional interests, they mightn’t have appropriate information on relevant events in these and other activities. The value of these activities of qualified scientists knowing the latest information in the field of biosafety is difficult to overestimate, as they have the possibility to analyze any situation on the range of relevant activities and use their knowledge to make informed proposals which could be acceptable for their co-worker scientists in other areas of biological science. For highly qualified scientists such activities appeared to be effective, it is a vital aspect of their professional activity, because such scientists are able to provide scientific advice, analyze and summarize relevant scientific aspects on a specific topic of interest for politicians and diplomats. Such an analysis should include identification of key elements that are relevant to a given scientific problem and should be formulated so as the consequences of the various elements of the Convention were clearly appreciated and understood by politicians and diplomats. In other words, the rele vant scientific aspects should be analyzed, summarized and presented in the context of the Convention, together with suggestions on what steps in this direction should be taken by politicians and diplomats.

  13. The importance of message framing for providing information about sustainability and environmental aspects of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van de Velde, Liesbeth; Verbeke, Wim; Popp, Michael; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2010-01-01

    With a looming energy crisis, energy conservation and attention to environmental problems are warranted. The transport sector experiences great challenges to introduce more environmental friendly renewable energy like biofuels. The majority of the Belgian people are asking for more information about this issue. Because individuals are sensitive to how information is presented, the choice of the message frame can significantly influence attitudes and behavioural intention. Because of the strengthening effect on both concern and PCE, our findings suggest that for the prevention of energy and environmental problems and the promotion of a more sustainable and environmental friendly energy consumption not the gravity of these problems and the possible disadvantages but the possibilities to overcome these problems (e.g. reduction of energy use, environmental friendly energy sources) have to be stressed. Men, higher educated people, people between 35 and 54 years old and people with the most pro-environmental attitude are less affected by the message frame, while the choice of the frame is more important when addressing women, people younger than 35 and older than 55 years, lower educated and less pro-environmental people.

  14. The importance of message framing for providing information about sustainability and environmental aspects of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van de Velde, Liesbeth; Verbeke, Wim; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Popp, Michael [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, 217 Agriculture Building, Fayetteville, AR 72701 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    With a looming energy crisis, energy conservation and attention to environmental problems are warranted. The transport sector experiences great challenges to introduce more environmental friendly renewable energy like biofuels. The majority of the Belgian people are asking for more information about this issue. Because individuals are sensitive to how information is presented, the choice of the message frame can significantly influence attitudes and behavioural intention. Because of the strengthening effect on both concern and PCE, our findings suggest that for the prevention of energy and environmental problems and the promotion of a more sustainable and environmental friendly energy consumption not the gravity of these problems and the possible disadvantages but the possibilities to overcome these problems (e.g. reduction of energy use, environmental friendly energy sources) have to be stressed. Men, higher educated people, people between 35 and 54 years old and people with the most pro-environmental attitude are less affected by the message frame, while the choice of the frame is more important when addressing women, people younger than 35 and older than 55 years, lower educated and less pro-environmental people. (author)

  15. The Importance of Providing Multiple-Channel Sections in Dredging Activities to Improve Fish Habitat Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Pin Chiu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available After Typhoon Morakot, dredging engineering was conducted while taking the safety of humans and structures into consideration, but partial stream reaches were formed in the multiple-channel sections in Cishan Stream because of anthropogenic and natural influences. This study mainly explores the distribution of each fish species in both the multiple- and single-channel sections in the Cishan Stream. Parts of the environments did not exhibit significant differences according to a one-way ANOVA comparing the multiple- and single-channel sections, but certain areas of the multiple-channel sections had more diverse habitats. Each fish species was widely distributed by non-metric multidimensional scaling in the multiple-channel sections as compared to those in the single-channel sections. In addition, according to the principal component analysis, each fish species has a preferred environment, and all of them have a wide choice of habitat environments in the multiple-channel sections. Finally, the existence of multiple-channel sections could significantly affect the existence of the fish species under consideration in this study. However, no environmental factors were found to have an influence on fish species in the single-channel sections, with the exception of Rhinogobius nantaiensis. The results show that providing multiple-channel sections in dredging activities could improve fish habitat environments.

  16. The enduring importance of animal models in understanding periodontal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajishengallis, George; Lamont, Richard J; Graves, Dana T

    2015-01-01

    Whereas no single animal model can reproduce the complexity of periodontitis, different aspects of the disease can be addressed by distinct models. Despite their limitations, animal models are essential for testing the biological significance of in vitro findings and for establishing cause-and-effect relationships relevant to clinical observations, which are typically correlative. We provide evidence that animal-based studies have generated a durable framework for dissecting the mechanistic basis of periodontitis. These studies have solidified the etiologic role of bacteria in initiating the inflammatory response that leads to periodontal bone loss and have identified key mediators (IL-1, TNF, prostaglandins, complement, RANKL) that induce inflammatory breakdown. Moreover, animal studies suggest that dysbiosis, rather than individual bacterial species, are important in initiating periodontal bone loss and have introduced the concept that organisms previously considered commensals can play important roles as accessory pathogens or pathobionts. These studies have also provided insight as to how systemic conditions, such as diabetes or leukocyte adhesion deficiency, contribute to tissue destruction. In addition, animal studies have identified and been useful in testing therapeutic targets.

  17. Bring Your Own Device - Providing Reliable Model of Data Access

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stąpór Paweł

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a model of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD as a model network, which provides the user reliable access to network resources. BYOD is a model dynamically developing, which can be applied in many areas. Research network has been launched in order to carry out the test, in which as a service of BYOD model Work Folders service was used. This service allows the user to synchronize files between the device and the server. An access to the network is completed through the wireless communication by the 802.11n standard. Obtained results are shown and analyzed in this article.

  18. Levels of Interaction Provided by Online Distance Education Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhih, Mohammed; Ossiannilsson, Ebba; Berigel, Muhammet

    2017-01-01

    Interaction plays a significant role to foster usability and quality in online education. It is one of the quality standard to reveal the evidence of practice in online distance education models. This research study aims to evaluate levels of interaction in the practices of distance education centres. It is aimed to provide online distance…

  19. Identifying the important factors in simulation models with many factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettonvil, B.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1994-01-01

    Simulation models may have many parameters and input variables (together called factors), while only a few factors are really important (parsimony principle). For such models this paper presents an effective and efficient screening technique to identify and estimate those important factors. The

  20. Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J. Champion

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data.

  1. Model of Providing Assistive Technologies in Special Education Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lersilp, Suchitporn; Putthinoi, Supawadee; Chakpitak, Nopasit

    2015-05-14

    Most students diagnosed with disabilities in Thai special education schools received assistive technologies, but this did not guarantee the greatest benefits. The purpose of this study was to survey the provision, use and needs of assistive technologies, as well as the perspectives of key informants regarding a model of providing them in special education schools. The participants were selected by the purposive sampling method, and they comprised 120 students with visual, physical, hearing or intellectual disabilities from four special education schools in Chiang Mai, Thailand; and 24 key informants such as parents or caregivers, teachers, school principals and school therapists. The instruments consisted of an assistive technology checklist and a semi-structured interview. Results showed that a category of assistive technologies was provided for students with disabilities, with the highest being "services", followed by "media" and then "facilities". Furthermore, mostly students with physical disabilities were provided with assistive technologies, but those with visual disabilities needed it more. Finally, the model of providing assistive technologies was composed of 5 components: Collaboration; Holistic perspective; Independent management of schools; Learning systems and a production manual for users; and Development of an assistive technology center, driven by 3 major sources such as Government and Private organizations, and Schools.

  2. Generation of risk importance information from severe accident PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Mi Ro; Kim, Hyeong Taek; Moon, Chan Kook

    2012-01-01

    One of the important objects conducting Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is the relative evaluation of importance of the component or function that is greatly affected to the plant safety. This evaluation is performed by the importance assessment methods such as Risk Reduction Worth, Risk Achievement Worth, and Fuss el Vessley method from the aspect of core damage frequency (CDF). In the Level 1 PSA model, the importance of each component can be evaluated since the CDF is calculated by the combination of the branch probability of event tree and the component failure probability in the fault tree. But, the Level 2 PSA model in order to assess the containment integrity cannot evaluate the risk importance by the above methods because the model is consisted of 3 parts, plant damage status, containment event tree, and source term category. So, in the field that the Level 2 PSA risk importance information should be reflected, such as maintenance rule program, risk importance has been determined by the subjective judgment of the model developer. This study was performed in order to generate the risk importance information more objectively and systematically in the Level 2 PSA model, focused on the containment event tree in the domain PHWR Level 2 PSA model

  3. Importance of predictor variables for models of chemical function

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Importance of random forest predictors for all classification models of chemical function. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Isaacs , K., M....

  4. National Water Model: Providing the Nation with Actionable Water Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggett, G. R.; Bates, B.

    2017-12-01

    The National Water Model (NWM) provides national, street-level detail of water movement through time and space. Operating hourly, this flood of information offers enormous benefits in the form of water resource management, natural disaster preparedness, and the protection of life and property. The Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center supplies forecasters and decision-makers with timely, actionable water intelligence through the processing of billions of NWM data points every hour. These datasets include current streamflow estimates, short and medium range streamflow forecasts, and many other ancillary datasets. The sheer amount of NWM data produced yields a dataset too large to allow for direct human comprehension. As such, it is necessary to undergo model data post-processing, filtering, and data ingestion by visualization web apps that make use of cartographic techniques to bring attention to the areas of highest urgency. This poster illustrates NWM output post-processing and cartographic visualization techniques being developed and employed by the Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center to provide national actionable water intelligence.

  5. Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard B. Saltman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A central problem in designing effective models of provider governance in health systems has been to ensure an appropriate balance between the concerns of public sector and/or government decision-makers, on the one hand, and of non-governmental health services actors in civil society and private life, on the other. In tax-funded European health systems up to the 1980s, the state and other public sector decision-makers played a dominant role over health service provision, typically operating hospitals through national or regional governments on a command-and-control basis. In a number of countries, however, this state role has started to change, with governments first stepping out of direct service provision and now de facto pushed to focus more on steering provider organizations rather than on direct public management. In this new approach to provider governance, the state has pulled back into a regulatory role that introduces market-like incentives and management structures, which then apply to both public and private sector providers alike. This article examines some of the main operational complexities in implementing this new governance reality/strategy, specifically from a service provision (as opposed to mostly a financing or even regulatory perspective. After briefly reviewing some of the key theoretical dilemmas, the paper presents two case studies where this new approach was put into practice: primary care in Sweden and hospitals in Spain. The article concludes that good governance today needs to reflect practical operational realities if it is to have the desired effect on health sector reform outcome.

  6. Exploring the Uptake of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception in South Dakota Women and the Importance of Provider Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Tess L; Briggs, Ashley; Hanson, Jessica D

    2017-11-01

    Long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) methods, including the intrauterine device (IUD) and the birth control implant, are the most effective form of prescribed birth control for pregnancy prevention. However, uptake of this highly effective form of birth control is slow. The purpose of this study was to explore use of the LARC methods in South Dakota women prescribed contraception and the importance of the provider in promoting this type of contraception. This was a cross-sectional study of female patients who had been prescribed contraception at one of five locations in a South Dakota hospital system. Records were obtained through electronic health records for a six-month period. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi-square with counts and percentages. Logistic regression was used to determine differences in LARC prescriptions by patient age and provider title. A total of 2,174 individual patients were included in analysis. Of the 378 (17.4 percent) who were prescribed LARC methods, most (78.6 percent) were prescribed an IUD. Younger women (aged 11-19) were less likely to be prescribed LARCs compared to women aged 30-34. There were also significant differences in LARC prescriptions by provider type. Futhermore, we noted differences in LARC prescriptions for a provider who received a specific education and training on LARC from the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology. There are many important factors to consider by the patient when choosing the most appropriate contraceptive method, including safety, effectiveness, accessibility, and affordability. Provider education may play an important role in promoting LARC methods.

  7. Models of Dispersal Evolution Highlight Several Important Issues in Evolutionary and Ecological Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M J

    2016-01-01

    Previous results showing that lack of information on local population density leads to higher emigration probabilities in unpredictable environments but to lower emigration probabilities in constant or highly predictable scenarios have recently been challenged by Poethke et al. By reimplementing both our model and that of Poethke and colleagues, we demonstrate that our original results indeed hold to the presented critiques and do not contradict previous findings. The comment by Poethke and colleagues does, however, present potentially intriguing results suggesting that negative density-dependent dispersal evolves under white noise for some model formulations. Here, through intermodel comparison, we seek to better understand the source of the differences in results obtained in our study and theirs. We conclude that the apparent negative density dependence reported by Poethke et al. is effectively density independence and that the shape of the reaction norm they obtain is a model artefact. Further, this response provides an opportunity to elaborate on some important issues in evolutionary and ecological modeling regarding (i) the importance of carefully considering different models' assumptions in comparisons among models, (ii) the need to consider the role of stochasticity and uncertainty when presenting and interpreting results from stochastic individual-based models, (iii) the adequate choice of the underlying ecological model that creates the selective pressures determining the evolution of behavioral reaction norms, and (iv) the appropriate choice of mutation models.

  8. FRAMES-2.0 Software System: Providing Password Protection and Limited Access to Models and Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, Gene; Pelton, Mitch A.

    2007-01-01

    One of the most important concerns for regulatory agencies is the concept of reproducibility (i.e., reproducibility means credibility) of an assessment. One aspect of reproducibility deals with tampering of the assessment. In other words, when multiple groups are engaged in an assessment, it is important to lock down the problem that is to be solved and/or to restrict the models that are to be used to solve the problem. The objective of this effort is to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with a means to limit user access to models and to provide a mechanism to constrain the conceptual site models (CSMs) when appropriate. The purpose is to provide the user (i.e., NRC) with the ability to ''lock down'' the CSM (i.e., picture containing linked icons), restrict access to certain models, or both.

  9. Why does cue polarity information provide benefits in inference problems? The role of strategy selection and knowledge of cue importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Helversen, Bettina; Karlsson, Linnea; Mata, Rui; Wilke, Andreas

    2013-09-01

    Knowledge about cue polarity (i.e., the sign of a cue-criterion relation) seems to boost performance in a wide range of inference tasks. Knowledge about cue polarity information may enhance performance by increasing (1) the reliance on rule- relative to similarity-based strategies, and (2) explicit knowledge about the relative importance of cues. We investigated the relative contribution of these two mechanisms in a multiple-cue judgment task and a categorization task, which typically differ in the inference strategies they elicit and potentially the explicit task knowledge available to participants. In both tasks participants preferred rule-based relative to similarity-based strategies and had more knowledge about cue importance when cue polarity information was provided. Strategy selection was not related to increases in performance in the categorization task and could only partly explain increases in performance in the judgment task. In contrast, explicit knowledge about the importance of cues was related to better performance in both categorization and judgment independently of the strategy used. In sum, our results suggest that the benefits of receiving cue polarity information may span across tasks, such multiple-cue judgment and categorization, primarily by enhancing knowledge of relative cue importance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation of struct......This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines and other models applied to fast evaluation...... response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a hexagonal footing. The optimal order of a lumped-parameter model is determined for each degree of freedom, i.e. horizontal and vertical translation as well as torsion and rocking. In particular, the necessity of coupling...

  11. Do Lumped-Parameter Models Provide the Correct Geometrical Damping?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    This paper concerns the formulation of lumped-parameter models for rigid footings on homogenous or stratified soil with focus on the horizontal sliding and rocking. Such models only contain a few degrees of freedom, which makes them ideal for inclusion in aero-elastic codes for wind turbines......-parameter models with respect to the prediction of the maximum response during excitation and the geometrical damping related to free vibrations of a footing....

  12. Model organoids provide new research opportunities for ductal pancreatic cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boj, Sylvia F|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304074799; Hwang, Chang-Il; Baker, Lindsey A; Engle, Dannielle D; Tuveson, David A; Clevers, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/07164282X

    We recently established organoid models from normal and neoplastic murine and human pancreas tissues. These organoids exhibit ductal- and disease stage-specific characteristics and, after orthotopic transplantation, recapitulate the full spectrum of tumor progression. Pancreatic organoid technology

  13. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  14. Conceptual Models of the Individual Public Service Provider

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lotte Bøgh; Bhatti, Yosef; Petersen, Ole Helby

    Individual public service providers’ motivation can be conceptualized as either extrinsic, autonomous or prosocial, and the question is how we can best theoretically understand this complexity without losing too much coherence and parsimony. Drawing on Allison’s approach (1969), three perspectives...... are used to gain insight on the motivation of public service providers; namely principal-agent theory, self-determination theory and public service motivation theory. We situate the theoretical discussions in the context of public service providers being transferred to private organizations...... as a consequence of outsourcing by the public sector. Although this empirical setting is interesting in itself, here it serves primarily as grist for a wider discussion on strategies for applying multiple theoretical approaches and crafting a theoretical synthesis. The key contribution of the paper is thus...

  15. Importance of incorporating agriculture in conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi-)distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using this spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. In large parts of Europe the original forested land cover is replaced by an agricultural land cover. This change in land cover probably affects the dominant runoff processes in the area, for example by increasing the Hortonian overland flow component, especially on the flatter and higher elevated parts of the catchment. A change in runoff processes implies a change in HRUs as well. A previous version of our model distinguished wetlands (areas close to the stream) from the remainder of the catchment. However, this configuration was not able to reproduce all fast runoff processes, both in summer as in winter. Therefore, this study tests whether the reproduction of fast runoff processes can be improved by incorporating a HRU which explicitly accounts for the effect of agriculture. A case study is carried out in the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. For this case study the relevance of different process conceptualisations is tested stepwise. Among the conceptualisations are Hortonian overland flow in summer and winter, reduced infiltration capacity due to a partly frozen soil and the relative effect of rainfall and snow smelt in case of this frozen soil. The results show that the named processes can make a large difference on event basis, especially the Hortonian overland flow in summer and the combination of rainfall and snow melt on (partly) frozen soil in winter. However, differences diminish when the modelled period of several years is evaluated based on standard metrics like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. These results emphasise on one hand the importance of incorporating the effects of agricultural in conceptual models and on the other hand the importance of more event

  16. Experimental studies on power transformer model winding provided with MOVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.H. Kusumadevi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Surge voltage distribution across a HV transformer winding due to appearance of very fast rise time (rise time of order 1 μs transient voltages is highly non-uniform along the length of the winding for initial time instant of occurrence of surge. In order to achieve nearly uniform initial time instant voltage distribution along the length of the HV winding, investigations have been carried out on transformer model winding. By connecting similar type of metal oxide varistors across sections of HV transformer model winding, it is possible to improve initial time instant surge voltage distribution across length of the HV transformer winding. Transformer windings with α values 5.3, 9.5 and 19 have been analyzed. The experimental studies have been carried out using high speed oscilloscope of good accuracy. The initial time instant voltage distribution across sections of winding with MOV remains nearly uniform along length of the winding. Also results of fault diagnostics carried out with and without connection of MOVs across sections of winding are reported.

  17. The importance of variables and parameters in radiolytic chemical kinetics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepho, M.G.; Turner, P.J.; Reimus, P.W.

    1989-01-01

    Many of the pertinent radiochemical reactions are not completely understood, and most of the associated rate constants are poorly characterized. To help identify the important radiochemical reactions, rate constants, species, and environmental conditions, an importance theory code, SWATS (Sensitivitiy With Adjoint Theory-Sparse version)-LOOPCHEM, has been developed for the radiolytic chemical kinetics model in the radiolysis code LOOPCHEM. The LOOPCHEM code calculates the concentrations of various species in a radiolytic field over time. The SWATS-LOOPCHEM code efficiently calculates: the importance (relative to a defined response of interest) of each species concentration over time, the sensitivity of each parameter of interest, and the importance of each equation in the radiolysis model. The calculated results will be used to guide future experimental and modeling work for determining the importance of radiolysis on waste package performance. A demonstration (the importance of selected concentrations and the sensitivities of selected parameters) of the SWATS-LOOPCHEM code is provided for illustrative purposes

  18. Providing high-quality care for limited English proficient patients: the importance of language concordance and interpreter use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo-Metzger, Quyen; Sorkin, Dara H; Phillips, Russell S; Greenfield, Sheldon; Massagli, Michael P; Clarridge, Brian; Kaplan, Sherrie H

    2007-11-01

    Provider-patient language discordance is related to worse quality care for limited English proficient (LEP) patients who speak Spanish. However, little is known about language barriers among LEP Asian-American patients. We examined the effects of language discordance on the degree of health education and the quality of interpersonal care that patients received, and examined its effect on patient satisfaction. We also evaluated how the presence/absence of a clinic interpreter affected these outcomes. Cross-sectional survey, response rate 74%. A total of 2,746 Chinese and Vietnamese patients receiving care at 11 health centers in 8 cities. Provider-patient language concordance, health education received, quality of interpersonal care, patient ratings of providers, and the presence/absence of a clinic interpreter. Regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounding. Patients with language-discordant providers reported receiving less health education (beta = 0.17, p interpreter. Patients with language-discordant providers also reported worse interpersonal care (beta = 0.28, p interpreter did not mitigate these effects and in fact exacerbated disparities in patients' perceptions of their providers. Language barriers are associated with less health education, worse interpersonal care, and lower patient satisfaction. Having access to a clinic interpreter can facilitate the transmission of health education. However, in terms of patients' ratings of their providers and the quality of interpersonal care, having an interpreter present does not serve as a substitute for language concordance between patient and provider.

  19. 76 FR 41300 - Probable Economic Effect of Providing Duty-Free, Quota-Free Treatment for Imports From Least...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-13

    ... in 2007 had requested and received such an analysis, and indicated that it would be useful to have an update of this analysis based on 2010 trade data. As requested, the Commission, in providing its advice... yarns and fabrics. [[Page 41301

  20. Important limitations in the modeling of activated sludge : biased calibration of the hydrolysis process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Insel, G.; Gul, Ö.K.; Orhon, D.

    2002-01-01

    ), provides the majority of the required experimental database. However, currently used procedures still involve a number of basic and practical problems. Model evaluation of the OUR data may generate a distorted image of the processes involved. Hydrolysis is the most important, yet the most vulnerable...

  1. The importance of proper feedback modeling in HWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Gorelik, Z.; Shapira, M.

    1996-01-01

    The DSNP simulation language was applied to study the effect of different modeling approximations of feedback phenomena in nuclear power plants. The different methods to model the feedback effects are presented and discussed. It is shown that HWR's are most sensitive to the correct modeling since the usually have at least three feedback effects acting at different time scales, and to achieve correct kinetics a one dimensional representation is needed with correct modeling of the in core time delays. The simulation methodology of lumped parameters and one dimensional models using the DSNP simulation language is presented (authors)

  2. The importance of the therapeutic relationship when providing information to parents of children with long-term disabilities: The views and experiences of UK paediatric therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder, Jim; Morris, Jane

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand the views and experiences of paediatric therapists working in the United Kingdom regarding the importance of the therapeutic relationship when providing information for parents of children with long-term disabilities. The aim was to develop new perspectives, to encourage dialogue and reflection for change and to identify practical suggestions for health professionals when developing therapeutic relationships. This study employed an interpretive phenomenological methodology. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were carried out with seven health professionals from a single National Health Service trust in the United Kingdom (children's physiotherapists, occupational therapists and speech therapists). Resultant data were analysed using a systematic process of thematic content analysis. One main theme 'The Importance of the Therapeutic Relationship: Balancing a Positive Relationship with Professional Responsibility' is presented and discussed. Paediatric therapists recognize that fostering a positive therapeutic relationship is vital to facilitate parental engagement with the information they provide. Despite this it was felt that efforts to maintain a positive relationship needed to be carefully balanced with discharging professional responsibility to the child. A preliminary model 'The Therapeutic Relationship Continuum' is presented, aiming to help health professionals self-assess and reflect on the dynamic interface between the therapeutic relationship and information provision.

  3. Winning an important customer. CRM: A recipe for success for energy providers?; Gefragter Kunde. CRM: Ein Erfolgsrezept fuer Energieanbieter?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grunenberg, J. [BBDO InterOne GmbH, Muenchen (Germany)

    2002-07-01

    Changes in the energy market have forced providers to respond to increased levels of competition and the higher standards expected by today's customers. As a result, a growing number of energy suppliers are now availing of CRM to adapt their business increasingly to suit the needs of their customers. However, success in the field of CRM means more than just introducing new software or restructuring your service centre. It is a holistic strategy, one which has as its goal the gradual but complete overhaul and improvement of customer relationship management practices in all customer-oriented divisions of your company. [German] Der Wandel auf dem Energiemarkt zwingt die Anbieter, sich mehr denn je mit dem verschaerften Wettbewerb und den gestiegenen Anspruechen der Verbraucher auseinander zu setzen. Immer mehr Energieversorger richten deswegen mit gezielten CRM-Massnahmen ihre Geschaeftsprozesse verstaerkt an ihren Kunden aus. Doch erfolgreiches CRM ist mehr als nur eine Software oder die Restrukturierung eines Service-Centers: Es ist eine ganzheitliche Strategie, die eine schrittweise und konsequente Optimierung des Kundenbeziehungsmanagements in allen kundenorientierten Unternehmensbereiche anstrebt.

  4. Comparing consumer-directed and agency models for providing supportive services at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, A E; Matthias, R; Franke, T M

    2000-04-01

    To examine the service experiences and outcomes of low-income Medicaid beneficiaries with disabilities under two different models for organizing home-based personal assistance services: agency-directed and consumer-directed. A survey of a random sample of 1,095 clients, age 18 and over, who receive services in California's In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) program funded primarily by Medicaid. Other data were obtained from the California Management and Payrolling System (CMIPS). The sample was stratified by service model (agency-directed or consumer-directed), client age (over or under age 65), and severity. Data were collected on client demographics, condition/functional status, and supportive service experience. Outcome measures were developed in three areas: safety, unmet need, and service satisfaction. Factor analysis was used to reduce multiple outcome measures to nine dimensions. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess the effect of service model on each outcome dimension, taking into account the client-provider relationship, client demographics, and case mix. Recipients of IHSS services as of mid-1996 were interviewed by telephone. The survey was conducted in late 1996 and early 1997. On various outcomes, recipients in the consumer-directed model report more positive outcomes than those in the agency model, or they report no difference. Statistically significant differences emerge on recipient safety, unmet needs, and service satisfaction. A family member present as a paid provider is also associated with more positive reported outcomes within the consumer-directed model, but model differences persist even when this is taken into account. Although both models have strengths and weaknesses, from a recipient perspective the consumer-directed model is associated with more positive outcomes. Although health professionals have expressed concerns about the capacity of consumer direction to assure quality, particularly with respect to safety, meeting unmet

  5. Prevention of intravenous bacterial injection from health care provider hands: the importance of catheter design and handling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftus, Randy W; Patel, Hetal M; Huysman, Bridget C; Kispert, David P; Koff, Matthew D; Gallagher, John D; Jensen, Jens T; Rowlands, John; Reddy, Sundara; Dodds, Thomas M; Yeager, Mark P; Ruoff, Kathryn L; Surgenor, Stephen D; Brown, Jeremiah R

    2012-11-01

    Device-related bloodstream infections are associated with a significant increase in patient morbidity and mortality in multiple health care settings. Recently, intraoperative bacterial contamination of conventional open-lumen 3-way stopcock sets has been shown to be associated with increased patient mortality. Intraoperative use of disinfectable, needleless closed catheter devices (DNCCs) may reduce the risk of bacterial injection as compared to conventional open-lumen devices due to an intrinsic barrier to bacterial entry associated with valve design and/or the capacity for surface disinfection. However, the relative benefit of DNCC valve design (intrinsic barrier capacity) as compared to surface disinfection in attenuation of bacterial injection in the clinical environment is untested and entirely unknown. The primary aim of the current study was to investigate the relative efficacy of a novel disinfectable stopcock, the Ultraport zero, with and without disinfection in attenuating intraoperative injection of potential bacterial pathogens as compared to a conventional open-lumen stopcock intravascular device. The secondary aims were to identify risk factors for bacterial injection and to estimate the quantity of bacterial organisms injected during catheter handling. Four hundred sixty-eight operating room environments were randomized by a computer generated list to 1 of 3 device-injection schemes: (1) injection of the Ultraport zero stopcock with hub disinfection before injection, (2) injection of the Ultraport zero stopcock without prior hub disinfection, and (3) injection of the conventional open-lumen stopcock closed with sterile caps according to usual practice. After induction of general anesthesia, the primary anesthesia provider caring for patients in each operating room environment was asked to perform a series of 5 injections of sterile saline through the assigned device into an ex vivo catheter system. The primary outcome was the incidence of bacterial

  6. Categorized stacking models for import containers in port container terminals

    OpenAIRE

    Shih-Chan Ting; Jaw-Shen Wang; Sheng-Long Kao; Flor Melina Pitty

    2010-01-01

    Container terminals have been playing an important role in global transportation and serve as multi-modal interfaces between sea and land transportation. Import containers are those containers that arrive at container terminals from overseas and transship to their destination through inland transport, feeders or wait to be picked up by consignees. As trucks assigned by consignees arrive more or less randomly to pick up specific containers, there is uncertainty about which container will be pi...

  7. Recent advances in importance sampling for statistical model checking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijsbergen, D.P.; de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk; Scheinhardt, Willem R.W.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the following work we present an overview of recent advances in rare event simulation for model checking made at the University of Twente. The overview is divided into the several model classes for which we propose algorithms, namely multicomponent systems, Markov chains and stochastic Petri

  8. The importance of dynamics in panel gravity models of trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    2002-01-01

    Existing gravity models of trade based on panel data are often static, that is, they only allow for contemporaneous effects of regressors on trade. However, there are numerous economic arguments suggesting that trade is a dynamic process. Hence, we extend the static model with lagged regressors

  9. Wind farms providing secondary frequency regulation: Evaluating the performance of model-based receding horizon control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, Carl R.; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice F.; Meyers, Johan

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the use of wind farms to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid. Our approach uses model-based receding horizon control of a wind farm that is tested using a large eddy simulation (LES) framework. In order to enable real-time implementation, the control actions are computed based on a time-varying one-dimensional wake model. This model describes wake advection and interactions, both of which play an important role in wind farm power production. This controller is implemented in an LES model of an 84-turbine wind farm represented by actuator disk turbine models. Differences between the velocities at each turbine predicted by the wake model and measured in LES are used for closed-loop feedback. The controller is tested on two types of regulation signals, “RegA” and “RegD”, obtained from PJM, an independent system operator in the eastern United States. Composite performance scores, which are used by PJM to qualify plants for regulation, are used to evaluate the performance of the controlled wind farm. Our results demonstrate that the controlled wind farm consistently performs well, passing the qualification threshold for all fastacting RegD signals. For the RegA signal, which changes over slower time scales, the controlled wind farm's average performance surpasses the threshold, but further work is needed to enable the controlled system to achieve qualifying performance all of the time. (paper)

  10. Family child care home providers as role models for children: Cause for concern?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Tovar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Health behaviors associated with chronic disease, particularly healthy eating and regular physical activity, are important role modeling opportunities for individuals working in child care programs. Prior studies have not explored these risk factors in family child care home (FCCH providers which care for vulnerable and at-risk populations. To address this gap, we describe the socio-demographic and health risk behavior profiles in a sample of providers (n = 166 FCCH taken from baseline data of an ongoing cluster-randomized controlled intervention (2011–2016 in North Carolina. Data were collected during on-site visits where providers completed self-administered questionnaires (socio-demographics, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, number of hours of sleep per night and perceived stress and had their height and weight measured. A risk score (range: 0–6; 0 no risk to 6 high risk was calculated based on how many of the following were present: not having health insurance, being overweight/obese, not meeting physical activity, fruit and vegetable, and sleep recommendations, and having high stress. Mean and frequency distributions of participant and FCCH characteristics were calculated. Close to one third (29.3% of providers reported not having health insurance. Almost all providers (89.8% were overweight or obese with approximately half not meeting guidelines for physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, and sleep. Over half reported a “high” stress score. The mean risk score was 3.39 (±1.2, with close to half of the providers having a risk score of 4, 5 or 6 (45.7%. These results stress the need to promote the health of these important care providers.

  11. Important limitations in the modeling of activated sludge : biased calibration of the hydrolysis process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Insel, G.; Gul, Ö.K.; Orhon, D.

    2002-01-01

    ), provides the majority of the required experimental database. However, currently used procedures still involve a number of basic and practical problems. Model evaluation of the OUR data may generate a distorted image of the processes involved. Hydrolysis is the most important, yet the most vulnerable...... process as far as the experimental assessment of accurate kinetic parameters is concerned. This study intends to provide an overview of major experimental limitations in the modeling of activated sludge, with emphasis on the appropriate experimental design for the assessment of the hydrolysis rate....

  12. The better model to predict and improve pediatric health care quality: performance or importance-performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Rebecca M; Bryant, Carol A; McDermott, Robert J; Ortinau, David

    2013-01-01

    The perpetual search for ways to improve pediatric health care quality has resulted in a multitude of assessments and strategies; however, there is little research evidence as to their conditions for maximum effectiveness. A major reason for the lack of evaluation research and successful quality improvement initiatives is the methodological challenge of measuring quality from the parent perspective. Comparison of performance-only and importance-performance models was done to determine the better predictor of pediatric health care quality and more successful method for improving the quality of care provided to children. Fourteen pediatric health care centers serving approximately 250,000 patients in 70,000 households in three West Central Florida counties were studied. A cross-sectional design was used to determine the importance and performance of 50 pediatric health care attributes and four global assessments of pediatric health care quality. Exploratory factor analysis revealed five dimensions of care (physician care, access, customer service, timeliness of services, and health care facility). Hierarchical multiple regression compared the performance-only and the importance-performance models. In-depth interviews, participant observations, and a direct cognitive structural analysis identified 50 health care attributes included in a mailed survey to parents(n = 1,030). The tailored design method guided survey development and data collection. The importance-performance multiplicative additive model was a better predictor of pediatric health care quality. Attribute importance moderates performance and quality, making the importance-performance model superior for measuring and providing a deeper understanding of pediatric health care quality and a better method for improving the quality of care provided to children. Regardless of attribute performance, if the level of attribute importance is not taken into consideration, health care organizations may spend valuable

  13. Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

  14. The importance of time-stepping errors in ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P. D.

    2011-12-01

    Many ocean models use leapfrog time stepping. The Robert-Asselin (RA) filter is usually applied after each leapfrog step, to control the computational mode. However, it will be shown in this presentation that the RA filter generates very large amounts of numerical diapycnal mixing. In some ocean models, the numerical diapycnal mixing from the RA filter is as large as the physical diapycnal mixing. This lowers our confidence in the fidelity of the simulations. In addition to the above problem, the RA filter also damps the physical solution and degrades the numerical accuracy. These two concomitant problems occur because the RA filter does not conserve the mean state, averaged over the three time slices on which it operates. The presenter has recently proposed a simple modification to the RA filter, which does conserve the three-time-level mean state. The modified filter has become known as the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter. When used in conjunction with the leapfrog scheme, the RAW filter eliminates the numerical damping of the physical solution and increases the amplitude accuracy by two orders, yielding third-order accuracy. The phase accuracy is unaffected and remains second-order. The RAW filter can easily be incorporated into existing models of the ocean, typically via the insertion of just a single line of code. Better simulations are obtained, at almost no additional computational expense. Results will be shown from recent implementations of the RAW filter in various ocean models. For example, in the UK Met Office Hadley Centre ocean model, sea-surface temperature and sea-ice biases in the North Atlantic Ocean are found to be reduced. These improvements are encouraging for the use of the RAW filter in other ocean models.

  15. Exploratory regression analysis: a tool for selecting models and determining predictor importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Michael T; Oswald, Frederick L

    2011-06-01

    Linear regression analysis is one of the most important tools in a researcher's toolbox for creating and testing predictive models. Although linear regression analysis indicates how strongly a set of predictor variables, taken together, will predict a relevant criterion (i.e., the multiple R), the analysis cannot indicate which predictors are the most important. Although there is no definitive or unambiguous method for establishing predictor variable importance, there are several accepted methods. This article reviews those methods for establishing predictor importance and provides a program (in Excel) for implementing them (available for direct download at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/2480715/ERA.xlsm?dl=1) . The program investigates all 2(p) - 1 submodels and produces several indices of predictor importance. This exploratory approach to linear regression, similar to other exploratory data analysis techniques, has the potential to yield both theoretical and practical benefits.

  16. On the importance of local connectivity for internet topology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, H.; Fay, D.; Jamakovic, A.; Maennel, O.; Moore, A.W.; Mortier, R.; Uhlig, S.

    2009-01-01

    Existing models for Internet Autonomous System (AS) topology generation make structural assumptions about the AS graph. Those assumptions typically stem from beliefs about the true properties of the Internet, e.g. hierarchy and powerlaws, which arise from incorrect interpretations of incomplete

  17. The importance of data curation on QSAR Modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    During the last few decades many QSAR models and tools have been developed at the US EPA, including the widely used EPISuite. During this period the arsenal of computational capabilities supporting cheminformatics has broadened dramatically with multiple software packages. These modern tools allow for more advanced techniques in terms of chemical structure representation and storage, as well as enabling automated data-mining and standardization approaches to examine and fix data quality issues.This presentation will investigate the impact of data curation on the reliability of QSAR models being developed within the EPA‘s National Center for Computational Toxicology. As part of this work we have attempted to disentangle the influence of the quality versus quantity of data based on the Syracuse PHYSPROP database partly used by EPISuite software. We will review our automated approaches to examining key datasets related to the EPISuite data to validate across chemical structure representations (e.g., mol file and SMILES) and identifiers (chemical names and registry numbers) and approaches to standardize data into QSAR-ready formats prior to modeling procedures. Our efforts to quantify and segregate data into quality categories has allowed us to evaluate the resulting models that can be developed from these data slices and to quantify to what extent efforts developing high-quality datasets have the expected pay-off in terms of predicting performance. The most accur

  18. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  19. The importance of variables and parameters in radiolytic chemical kinetics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piepho, M.G.; Turner, P.J.; Reimus, P.W.

    1988-07-01

    Many pertinent radiochemical reactions are not completely understood, and most of the associated rate constants are poorly characterized. To help identify the important radiochemical reactions, rate constants, species, and environmental conditions, an importance theory code, SWATS (Sensitivity With Adjoint Theory-Sparse version)-LOOPCHEM, has been developed for the radiolytic chemical kinetics model in the radiolysis code LOOPCHEM. The LOOPCHEM code calculates the concentrations of various species in a radiolytic field over time. The SWATS-LOOPCHEM code efficiently calculates: (1) the importance (relative to a defined response of interest) of each species concentration over time, (2) the sensitivity of each parameter of interest, and (3) the importance of each equation in the radiolysis model. The calculated results will be used to guide future experimental and modeling work for determining the importance of radiolysis on waste package performance. A demonstration (the importance of selected concentrations and the sensitivities of selected parameters) of the SWATS-LOOPCHEM code is provided for illustrative purposes, and no attempt is made at this time to interpret the results for waste package performance assessment purposes. 12 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  20. Importance of Dynamic Inflow Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Knudsen, Torben; Overgaard, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The efficiency of including dynamic inflow in the model based design of wind turbine controller has been discussed for many years in the wind energy community with out getting to a safe conclusion. This paper delivers a good argument in favor of including dynamic inflow. The main contributions...... pronounces. For this the well accepted NREL 5MW reference turbine simulated with FAST is used. The main result is a reduction in tower fatigue load at 22% while power error, rotor speed error, generator torque and pitch rate is improved from 2 to 33%....

  1. The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

    2017-04-01

    One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

  2. The importance of multiphase and multicomponent modeling in consequence and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, David W.; Marx, Jeffrey D.

    2003-01-01

    The ability to accurately predict the consequences of a hazardous fluid release is dependent on three things: the knowledge of the modeler, the quality of the model that is used, and the quality of the input parameters. One of the most difficult problems in consequence modeling is the prediction of post-release multiphase behavior, especially when a multicomponent mixture is involved. Releases from gas/oil wells often fit this description. The wellstream will produce a light crude oil and a gas stream when flashed into a separator. If accidentally released to the atmosphere, the gas, aerosol, and liquid fractions rarely match the phase separations in the separator, or the expectations of the modeler. And, since the wellstream has a wide range of hydrocarbon components, the need to accurately predict the multicomponent behavior becomes more important. Over the years, modelers have used several 'rules of thumb' to provide the source term input parameters for modeling multiphase/multicomponent releases and subsequent dispersion. These modeling assumptions can lead to hazard predictions that are very different from reality. The biggest problem with rules of thumb is their inability to account for thermodynamics; thus, they cannot approximate the phase splits and composition changes that do occur. The aim of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the modeler by providing some insight into the selection of the proper input parameters for multiphase releases of multicomponent fluids. The application of a multiphase release model with multicomponent thermodynamics to a wellstream release is used to illustrate the importance of good modeling techniques

  3. Particle size - An important factor in environmental consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; MacFarlane, D.

    1991-01-01

    Most available environmental transport and dosimetry codes for radiological consequence analysis are designed primarily for estimating dose and health consequences to specific off-site individuals as well as the population as a whole from nuclear facilities operating under either normal or accident conditions. Models developed for these types of analyses are generally based on assumptions that the receptors are at great distances (several kilometers), and the releases are prolonged and filtered. This allows the use of simplified approaches such as averaged meteorological conditions and the use of a single (small) particle size for atmospheric transport and dosimetry analysis. Source depletion from particle settling, settle-out, and deposition is often ignored. This paper estimates the effects of large particles on the resulting dose consequences from an atmospheric release. The computer program AI-RISK has been developed to perform multiparticle-sized atmospheric transport, dose, and pathway analyses for estimating potential human health consequences from the accidental release of radioactive materials. The program was originally developed to facilitate comprehensive analyses of health consequences, ground contamination, and cleanup associated with possible energetic chemical reactions in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) tanks at a US Department of Energy site

  4. Assessment of the Stakeholders’ Importance Using AHP Method – Modeling and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danka Knezević

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Attention to stakeholders, which means that companies bear responsibility for the implications of their actions, is emerging as a critical strategic issue. Hence, meeting legitimate stakeholders’ requests would enhance the reputation of a company and increase its competitiveness on product markets. That is why an accurate identification of stakeholders and assessment of their importance is so significant for the companies. Through an integration of the earlier models of excellence, models for identification and classification of stakeholders, models for assessing the quality of a company and the AHP method, widely applicable in various fields, a new model for assessment of stakeholders’ significance is proposed in this paper. The model also provides an assessment of a company based on the degree of the importance and satisfaction of stakeholders. The results of this model could be useful for companies and their management when it comes to defining a proper business strategy, monitoring the system changes over time, creating a basis for comparison with other similar systems or with itself. A practical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.

  5. Practice and Perceived Importance of Advance Care Planning and Difficulties in Providing Palliative Care in Geriatric Health Service Facilities in Japan: A Nationwide Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoya, Shoji; Kizawa, Yoshiyuki; Maeno, Takami

    2018-03-01

    The provision of end-of-life (EOL) care by geriatric health service facilities (GHSFs) in Japan is increasing. Advance care planning (ACP) is one of the most important issues to provide quality EOL care. This study aimed to clarify the practice and perceived importance of ACP and the difficulties in providing palliative care in GHSFs. A self-report questionnaire was mailed to head nurses at 3437 GHSFs nationwide. We asked participants about their practices regarding ACP, their recognition of its importance, and their difficulties in providing palliative care. We also analyzed the relationship between these factors and EOL care education. Among 844 respondents (24.5% response rate), approximately 69% to 81% of head nurses confirmed that GHSF residents and their families understood disease conditions and goals of care. There was a large discrepancy between the actual practice of ACP components and the recognition of their importance (eg, asking residents about existing advance directive [AD; 27.5% practiced it, while 79.6% considered it important]; recommending completion of an AD [18.1% vs 68.4%], and asking for designation of a health-care proxy [30.4% vs 76.8%]). The EOL care education was provided at 517 facilities (61.3%). Head nurses working at EOL care education-providing GHSFs practiced ACP significantly more frequently and had significantly fewer difficulties in providing palliative care. A large discrepancy was found between GHSF nurses' practice of ACP and their recognition of its importance. Providing EOL care education in GHSFs may increase ACP practices and enhance respect for resident's preferences concerning EOL care.

  6. Sworn testimony of the model evidence: Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-07-01

    What is the "best" model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K candidate models, Mk; k=>(1,…,K>), and help identify which model is most supported by the observed data, Y>˜=>(y˜1,…,y˜n>). Here, we introduce a new and robust estimator of the model evidence, p>(Y>˜|Mk>), which acts as normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes' theorem and provides a single quantitative measure of relative support for each hypothesis that integrates model accuracy, uncertainty, and complexity. However, p>(Y>˜|Mk>) is analytically intractable for most practical modeling problems. Our method, coined GAussian Mixture importancE (GAME) sampling, uses bridge sampling of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior model parameter distribution derived from MCMC simulation. We benchmark the accuracy and reliability of GAME sampling by application to a diverse set of multivariate target distributions (up to 100 dimensions) with known values of p>(Y>˜|Mk>) and to hypothesis testing using numerical modeling of the rainfall-runoff transformation of the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi, USA. These case studies demonstrate that GAME sampling provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence at a relatively small computational cost outperforming commonly used estimators. The GAME sampler is implemented in the MATLAB package of DREAM and simplifies considerably scientific inquiry through hypothesis testing and model selection.

  7. The importance of distance to resources in the spatial modelling of bat foraging habitat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Rainho

    Full Text Available Many bats are threatened by habitat loss, but opportunities to manage their habitats are now increasing. Success of management depends greatly on the capacity to determine where and how interventions should take place, so models predicting how animals use landscapes are important to plan them. Bats are quite distinctive in the way they use space for foraging because (i most are colonial central-place foragers and (ii exploit scattered and distant resources, although this increases flying costs. To evaluate how important distances to resources are in modelling foraging bat habitat suitability, we radio-tracked two cave-dwelling species of conservation concern (Rhinolophus mehelyi and Miniopterus schreibersii in a Mediterranean landscape. Habitat and distance variables were evaluated using logistic regression modelling. Distance variables greatly increased the performance of models, and distance to roost and to drinking water could alone explain 86 and 73% of the use of space by M. schreibersii and R. mehelyi, respectively. Land-cover and soil productivity also provided a significant contribution to the final models. Habitat suitability maps generated by models with and without distance variables differed substantially, confirming the shortcomings of maps generated without distance variables. Indeed, areas shown as highly suitable in maps generated without distance variables proved poorly suitable when distance variables were also considered. We concluded that distances to resources are determinant in the way bats forage across the landscape, and that using distance variables substantially improves the accuracy of suitability maps generated with spatially explicit models. Consequently, modelling with these variables is important to guide habitat management in bats and similarly mobile animals, particularly if they are central-place foragers or depend on spatially scarce resources.

  8. The Importance of Distance to Resources in the Spatial Modelling of Bat Foraging Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainho, Ana; Palmeirim, Jorge M.

    2011-01-01

    Many bats are threatened by habitat loss, but opportunities to manage their habitats are now increasing. Success of management depends greatly on the capacity to determine where and how interventions should take place, so models predicting how animals use landscapes are important to plan them. Bats are quite distinctive in the way they use space for foraging because (i) most are colonial central-place foragers and (ii) exploit scattered and distant resources, although this increases flying costs. To evaluate how important distances to resources are in modelling foraging bat habitat suitability, we radio-tracked two cave-dwelling species of conservation concern (Rhinolophus mehelyi and Miniopterus schreibersii) in a Mediterranean landscape. Habitat and distance variables were evaluated using logistic regression modelling. Distance variables greatly increased the performance of models, and distance to roost and to drinking water could alone explain 86 and 73% of the use of space by M. schreibersii and R. mehelyi, respectively. Land-cover and soil productivity also provided a significant contribution to the final models. Habitat suitability maps generated by models with and without distance variables differed substantially, confirming the shortcomings of maps generated without distance variables. Indeed, areas shown as highly suitable in maps generated without distance variables proved poorly suitable when distance variables were also considered. We concluded that distances to resources are determinant in the way bats forage across the landscape, and that using distance variables substantially improves the accuracy of suitability maps generated with spatially explicit models. Consequently, modelling with these variables is important to guide habitat management in bats and similarly mobile animals, particularly if they are central-place foragers or depend on spatially scarce resources. PMID:21547076

  9. Estimation of minimum sample size for identification of the most important features: a case study providing a qualitative B2B sales data set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Bohanec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An important task in machine learning is to reduce data set dimensionality, which in turn contributes to reducing computational load and data collection costs, while improving human understanding and interpretation of models. We introduce an operational guideline for determining the minimum number of instances sufficient to identify correct ranks of features with the highest impact. We conduct tests based on qualitative B2B sales forecasting data. The results show that a relatively small instance subset is sufficient for identifying the most important features when rank is not important.

  10. Postscript: Making Important Distinctions--Diagnostic Models, Theoretical Models, and the Mnemonic Model of PTSD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Scott M.; Mineka, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Our commentary was intended to stimulate discussion about what we perceive to be shortcomings of the mnemonic model and its research base, in the hope of shedding some light on key questions for understanding posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In our view, Berntsen, Rubin, and Bohni have responded only to what they perceive to be shortcomings…

  11. Risks, Benefits, and Importance of Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Data in Healthcare Settings: A Multi-Method Analysis of Patient and Provider Perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maragh-Bass, Allysha C; Torain, Maya; Adler, Rachel; Schneider, Eric; Ranjit, Anju; Kodadek, Lisa M; Shields, Ryan; German, Danielle; Snyder, Claire; Peterson, Susan; Schuur, Jeremiah; Lau, Brandyn; Haider, Adil H

    2017-04-01

    Research suggests that LGBT populations experience barriers to healthcare. Organizations such as the Institute of Medicine recommend routine documentation of sexual orientation (SO) and gender identity (GI) in healthcare, to reduce LGBT disparities. We explore patient views regarding the importance of SO/GI collection, and patient and provider views on risks and benefits of routine SO/GI collection in various settings. We surveyed LGBT/non-LGBT patients and providers on their views on SO/GI collection. Weighted data were analyzed with descriptive statistics; content analysis was conducted with open-ended responses. One-half of the 1516 patients and 60% of 429 providers were female; 64% of patients and 71% of providers were White. Eighty percent of providers felt that collecting SO data would offend patients, whereas only 11% of patients reported that they would be offended. Patients rated it as more important for primary care providers to know the SO of all patients compared with emergency department (ED) providers knowing the SO of all patients (41.3% vs. 31.6%; P discrimination risk most frequently (49.7%; N = 781), whereas provider comments cited patient discomfort/offense most frequently (54.5%; N = 433). Patients see the importance of SO/GI more in primary care than ED settings. However, many LGBT patients seek ED care due to factors including uninsurance; therefore, the ED may represent an initial point of contact for SO/GI collection. Therefore, patient-centered approaches to collecting SO/GI are needed. Patients and providers differed in perceived risks and benefits to routine SO/GI collection. Provider training in LGBT health may address patients' bias/discrimination concerns, and ultimately reduce LGBT health disparities.

  12. Providing or designing? Constructing models in primary maths education (IF. 0.756)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, I.M.A.W.; van Oers, H.J.M.; Terwel, J.

    2003-01-01

    The goal of this exploratory study was to uncover the construction processes which occur when pupils are taught to work with models in primary maths education. Two approaches were studied: 'providing models' versus 'designing models in co-construction'. A qualitative observational study involved two

  13. The anti-human trafficking collaboration model and serving victims: Providers' perspectives on the impact and experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hea-Won; Park, Taekyung; Quiring, Stephanie; Barrett, Diana

    2018-01-01

    A coalition model is often used to serve victims of human trafficking but little is known about whether the model is adequately meeting the needs of the victims. The purpose of this study was to examine anti-human trafficking collaboration model in terms of its impact and the collaborative experience, including challenges and lessons learned from the service providers' perspective. Mixed methods study was conducted to evaluate the impact of a citywide anti-trafficking coalition model from the providers' perspectives. Web-based survey was administered with service providers (n = 32) and focus groups were conducted with Core Group members (n = 10). Providers reported the coalition model has made important impacts in the community by increasing coordination among the key agencies, law enforcement, and service providers and improving quality of service provision. Providers identified the improved and expanded partnerships among coalition members as the key contributing factor to the success of the coalition model. Several key strategies were suggested to improve the coalition model: improved referral tracking, key partner and protocol development, and information sharing.

  14. A Distance Education Model for Training Substance Abuse Treatment Providers in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Donnie W.; Rawson, Richard R.; Rataemane, Solomon; Shafer, Michael S.; Obert, Jeanne; Bisesi, Lorrie; Tanamly, Susie

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a rationale for the use of a distance education approach in the clinical training of community substance abuse treatment providers. Developing and testing new approaches to the clinical training and supervision of providers is important in the substance abuse treatment field where new information is always available. A…

  15. New Provider Models for Sweden and Spain: Public, Private or Non-profit? Comment on "Governance, Government, and the Search for New Provider Models".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeurissen, Patrick P T; Maarse, Hans

    2016-06-29

    Sweden and Spain experiment with different provider models to reform healthcare provision. Both models have in common that they extend the role of the for-profit sector in healthcare. As the analysis of Saltman and Duran demonstrates, privatisation is an ambiguous and contested strategy that is used for quite different purposes. In our comment, we emphasize that their analysis leaves questions open on the consequences of privatisation for the performance of healthcare and the role of the public sector in healthcare provision. Furthermore, we briefly address the absence of the option of healthcare provision by not-for-profit providers in the privatisation strategy of Sweden and Spain. © 2016 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  16. Importance of the Hydrogen Isocyanide Isomer in Modeling Hydrogen Cyanide Oxidation in Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glarborg, Peter; Marshall, Paul

    2017-01-01

    constants for HNC + O2 and HNC + OH, it is possible to reconcile the modeling issues and provide a satisfactory prediction of a wide range of experimental results on HCN oxidation. In the burned gases of fuel-rich flames, HCN and the CN radical are partially equilibrated and the sequence HCN →+M HNC →+OH...... HNCO is the major consumption path for HCN. Under lean conditions, HNC is shown to be less important than indicated by the early work by Lin and co-workers, but it acts to accelerate HCN oxidation and promotes the formation of HNCO....

  17. The Importance of Precise Digital Elevation Models (DEM) in Modelling Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, Gokben; Akyurek, Zuhal

    2016-04-01

    Digital elevation Models (DEM) are important inputs for topography for the accurate modelling of floodplain hydrodynamics. Floodplains have a key role as natural retarding pools which attenuate flood waves and suppress flood peaks. GPS, LIDAR and bathymetric surveys are well known surveying methods to acquire topographic data. It is not only time consuming and expensive to obtain topographic data through surveying but also sometimes impossible for remote areas. In this study it is aimed to present the importance of accurate modelling of topography for flood modelling. The flood modelling for Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. One of the DEM is obtained from the point observations retrieved from 1/5000 scaled orthophotos and 1/1000 scaled point elevation data from field surveys at x-sections. The river banks are corrected by using the orthophotos and elevation values. This DEM is named as scaled DEM. The other DEM is obtained from bathymetric surveys. 296 538 number of points and the left/right bank slopes were used to construct the DEM having 1 m spatial resolution and this DEM is named as base DEM. Two DEMs were compared by using 27 x-sections. The maximum difference at thalweg of the river bed is 2m and the minimum difference is 20 cm between two DEMs. The channel conveyance capacity in base DEM is larger than the one in scaled DEM and floodplain is modelled in detail in base DEM. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. The model by using two DEMs were calibrated for a flood event (July 9, 2012). The roughness is considered as the calibration parameter. From comparison of input hydrograph at the upstream of the river and output hydrograph at the downstream of the river, the attenuation is obtained as 91% and 84% for the base DEM and scaled DEM, respectively. The time lag in hydrographs does not show any difference for two DEMs and it is obtained as 3 hours. Maximum flood extents differ for the two DEMs

  18. Cameroon mid-level providers offer a promising public health dentistry model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achembong Leo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Oral health services are inadequate and unevenly distributed in many developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa. Rural areas in these countries and poorer sections of the population in urban areas often do not have access to oral health services mainly because of a significant shortage of dentists and the high costs of care. We reviewed Cameroon’s experience with deploying a mid-level cadre of oral health professionals and the feasibility of establishing a more formal and predictable role for these health workers. We anticipate that a task-shifting approach in the provision of dental care will significantly improve the uneven distribution of oral health services particularly in the rural areas of Cameroon, which is currently served by only 3% of the total number of dentists. Methods The setting of this study was the Cameroon Baptist Convention Health Board (BCHB, which has four dentists and 42 mid-level providers. De-identified data were collected manually from the registries of 10 Baptist Convention clinics located in six of Cameroon’s 10 regions and then entered into an Excel format before importing into STATA. A retrospective abstraction of all entries for patient visits starting October 2010, and going back in time until 1500 visits were extracted from each clinic. Results This study showed that mid-level providers in BCHB clinics are offering a full scope of dental work across the 10 clinics, with the exception of treatment for major facial injuries. Mid-level providers alone performed 93.5% of all extractions, 87.5% of all fillings, 96.5% of all root canals, 97.5% of all cleanings, and 98.1% of all dentures. The dentists also typically played a teaching role in training the mid-level providers. Conclusions The Ministry of Health in Cameroon has an opportunity to learn from the BCHB model to expand access to oral health care across the country. This study shows the benefits of using a simple, workable, low

  19. The LNT model provides the best approach for practical implementation of radiation protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, C J

    2005-01-01

    This contribution argues the case that, at the present time, the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model provides the only rational framework on which practical radiation protection can be organized. Political, practical and healthcare difficulties with attempting to introduce an alternative approach, e.g. a threshold model, are discussed.

  20. Effectiveness of Video Modeling Provided by Mothers in Teaching Play Skills to Children with Autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besler, Fatma; Kurt, Onur

    2016-01-01

    Video modeling is an evidence-based practice that can be used to provide instruction to individuals with autism. Studies show that this instructional practice is effective in teaching many types of skills such as self-help skills, social skills, and academic skills. However, in previous studies, videos used in the video modeling process were…

  1. The Role of Logistics Service Providers in the Distribution Channel of Imported Perishable and Processed Food Product to Java Island, Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Tanuputri, Megita Ryanjani; Chaveesuk, Ravipim; Guritno, Adi Djoko

    2017-01-01

    Today fierce competition has highly enforced the company to focus more on their core competency and has encouraged them to strengthen competitive advantage. This condition reinforces the role of logistics service providers (LSP) to help company run their supporting activities. This research aims to identify the characteristics of LSP and to analyze their role in the distribution channel of imported perishable and processed food products in Indonesia. Convenience sampling was employed as sampl...

  2. Importance of the Hydrogen Isocyanide Isomer in Modeling Hydrogen Cyanide Oxidation in Combustion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glarborg, Peter; Marshall, Paul

    2017-01-01

    + O2 reaction is studied by ab initio methods and is shown to have a high barrier. Consequently, the omission of this reaction in recent modeling studies is justified. With the present knowledge of the HNC chemistry, including an accurate value of the heat of formation for HNC and improved rate...... constants for HNC + O2 and HNC + OH, it is possible to reconcile the modeling issues and provide a satisfactory prediction of a wide range of experimental results on HCN oxidation. In the burned gases of fuel-rich flames, HCN and the CN radical are partially equilibrated and the sequence HCN →+M HNC →+OH...... HNCO is the major consumption path for HCN. Under lean conditions, HNC is shown to be less important than indicated by the early work by Lin and co-workers, but it acts to accelerate HCN oxidation and promotes the formation of HNCO....

  3. What are healthcare providers' understandings and experiences of compassion? The healthcare compassion model: a grounded theory study of healthcare providers in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Shane; Hack, Thomas F; Raffin-Bouchal, Shelley; McClement, Susan; Stajduhar, Kelli; Singh, Pavneet; Hagen, Neil A; Sinnarajah, Aynharan; Chochinov, Harvey Max

    2018-03-14

    Healthcare providers are considered the primary conduit of compassion in healthcare. Although most healthcare providers desire to provide compassion, and patients and families expect to receive it, an evidence-based understanding of the construct and its associated dimensions from the perspective of healthcare providers is needed. The aim of this study was to investigate healthcare providers' perspectives and experiences of compassion in order to generate an empirically derived, clinically informed model. Data were collected via focus groups with frontline healthcare providers and interviews with peer-nominated exemplary compassionate healthcare providers. Data were independently and collectively analysed by the research team in accordance with Straussian grounded theory. 57 healthcare providers were recruited from urban and rural palliative care services spanning hospice, home care, hospital-based consult teams, and a dedicated inpatient unit within Alberta, Canada. Five categories and 13 associated themes were identified, illustrated in the Healthcare Provider Compassion Model depicting the dimensions of compassion and their relationship to one another. Compassion was conceptualised as-a virtuous and intentional response to know a person, to discern their needs and ameliorate their suffering through relational understanding and action. An empirical foundation of healthcare providers' perspectives on providing compassionate care was generated. While the dimensions of the Healthcare Provider Compassion Model were congruent with the previously developed Patient Model, further insight into compassion is now evident. The Healthcare Provider Compassion Model provides a model to guide clinical practice and research focused on developing interventions, measures and resources to improve it. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly

  4. Social models provide a norm of appropriate food intake for young women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenny R Vartanian

    Full Text Available It is often assumed that social models influence people's eating behavior by providing a norm of appropriate food intake, but this hypothesis has not been directly tested. In three experiments, female participants were exposed to a low-intake model, a high-intake model, or no model (control condition. Experiments 1 and 2 used a remote-confederate manipulation and were conducted in the context of a cookie taste test. Experiment 3 used a live confederate and was conducted in the context of a task during which participants were given incidental access to food. Participants also rated the extent to which their food intake was influenced by a variety of factors (e.g., hunger, taste, how much others ate. In all three experiments, participants in the low-intake conditions ate less than did participants in the high-intake conditions, and also reported a lower perceived norm of appropriate intake. Furthermore, perceived norms of appropriate intake mediated the effects of the social model on participants' food intake. Despite the observed effects of the social models, participants were much more likely to indicate that their food intake was influenced by taste and hunger than by the behavior of the social models. Thus, social models appear to influence food intake by providing a norm of appropriate eating behavior, but people may be unaware of the influence of a social model on their behavior.

  5. Importance estimation in Monte Carlo modelling of neutron and photon transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mickael, M.W.

    1992-01-01

    The estimation of neutron and photon importance in a three-dimensional geometry is achieved using a coupled Monte Carlo and diffusion theory calculation. The parameters required for the solution of the multigroup adjoint diffusion equation are estimated from an analog Monte Carlo simulation of the system under investigation. The solution of the adjoint diffusion equation is then used as an estimate of the particle importance in the actual simulation. This approach provides an automated and efficient variance reduction method for Monte Carlo simulations. The technique has been successfully applied to Monte Carlo simulation of neutron and coupled neutron-photon transport in the nuclear well-logging field. The results show that the importance maps obtained in a few minutes of computer time using this technique are in good agreement with Monte Carlo generated importance maps that require prohibitive computing times. The application of this method to Monte Carlo modelling of the response of neutron porosity and pulsed neutron instruments has resulted in major reductions in computation time. (Author)

  6. Value-added strategy models to provide quality services in senior health business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ya-Ting; Lin, Neng-Pai; Su, Shyi; Chen, Ya-Mei; Chang, Yao-Mao; Handa, Yujiro; Khan, Hafsah Arshed Ali; Elsa Hsu, Yi-Hsin

    2017-06-20

    The rapid population aging is now a global issue. The increase in the elderly population will impact the health care industry and health enterprises; various senior needs will promote the growth of the senior health industry. Most senior health studies are focused on the demand side and scarcely on supply. Our study selected quality enterprises focused on aging health and analyzed different strategies to provide excellent quality services to senior health enterprises. We selected 33 quality senior health enterprises in Taiwan and investigated their excellent quality services strategies by face-to-face semi-structured in-depth interviews with CEO and managers of each enterprise in 2013. A total of 33 senior health enterprises in Taiwan. Overall, 65 CEOs and managers of 33 enterprises were interviewed individually. None. Core values and vision, organization structure, quality services provided, strategies for quality services. This study's results indicated four type of value-added strategy models adopted by senior enterprises to offer quality services: (i) residential care and co-residence model, (ii) home care and living in place model, (iii) community e-business experience model and (iv) virtual and physical portable device model. The common part in these four strategy models is that the services provided are elderly centered. These models offer virtual and physical integrations, and also offer total solutions for the elderly and their caregivers. Through investigation of successful strategy models for providing quality services to seniors, we identified opportunities to develop innovative service models and successful characteristics, also policy implications were summarized. The observations from this study will serve as a primary evidenced base for enterprises developing their senior market and, also for promoting the value co-creation possibility through dialogue between customers and those that deliver service. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  7. Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice-versa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron

    Full Text Available Agent-based models (ABM are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not.Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks and analytic calculations (for a complete graph we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature.This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.

  8. The "P2P" Educational Model Providing Innovative Learning by Linking Technology, Business and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Paul Gordon

    2017-01-01

    This paper evaluates the effect and potential of a new educational learning model called Peer to Peer (P2P). The study was focused on Laurea, Hyvinkaa's Finland campus and its response to bridging the gap between traditional educational methods and working reality, where modern technology plays an important role. The study describes and evaluates…

  9. A Complex of Business Process Management Models for a Service-Providing IT Company

    OpenAIRE

    Yatsenko Roman M.; Balykov Oleksii H.

    2017-01-01

    The article presents an analysis of a complex of business process management models that are designed to improve the performance of service-providing IT companies. This class of enterprises was selected because of their significant contribution to the Ukrainian economy: third place in the structure of exports, significant budget revenues, high development dynamics, and prospects in the global marketplace. The selected complex of models is designed as a sequence of stages that must be accompli...

  10. The models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on import, export, and foreign exchange reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Wibowo, Supriyadi; Rizky Aristina Suwardi, Vivi

    2017-12-01

    The severity of the financial crisis that occurred in Indonesia required an early warning system of financial crisis. The financial crisis in Indonesia can be detected based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. The purpose of the research is to determine an appropriate model to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves. Markov switching is an alternative framework for the approach often used in financial crisis detection. Combined volatility and Markov switching model with three states assumptions can be established if an AR and volatility models have been obtained. Imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves data from January 1990 to December 2016 have the heteroscedasticity effect so that an ARCH model is used as a volatility model. Research shows that SWARCH(3.1) model is an appropriate model for detecting financial crisis in Indonesia based on imports, exports, and foreign exchange reserves.

  11. Improving sexual health communication between older women and their providers: how the integrative model of behavioral prediction can help.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Anne K; Rostant, Ola S; Curran, Paul G

    2014-07-01

    Talking about sexual health can be a challenge for some older women. This project was initiated to identify key factors that improve communication between aging women and their primary care providers. A sample of women (aged 60+) completed an online survey regarding their intent to communicate with a provider about sexual health. Using the integrative model of behavioral prediction as a guide, the survey instrument captured data on attitudes, perceived norms, self-efficacy, and intent to communicate with a provider about sexual health. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Self-efficacy and perceived norms were the most important factors predicting intent to communicate for this sample of women. Intent did not vary with race, but mean scores of the predictors of intent varied for African American and White women. Results can guide practice and intervention with ethnically diverse older women who may be struggling to communicate about their sexual health concerns. © The Author(s) 2013.

  12. Using Models to Provide Predicted Ranges for Building-Human Interfaces: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, N.; Scheib, J.; Pless, S.; Schott, M.

    2013-09-01

    Most building energy consumption dashboards provide only a snapshot of building performance; whereas some provide more detailed historic data with which to compare current usage. This paper will discuss the Building Agent(tm) platform, which has been developed and deployed in a campus setting at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory as part of an effort to maintain the aggressive energyperformance achieved in newly constructed office buildings and laboratories. The Building Agent(tm) provides aggregated and coherent access to building data, including electric energy, thermal energy, temperatures, humidity, and lighting levels, and occupant feedback, which are displayed in various manners for visitors, building occupants, facility managers, and researchers. This paper focuseson the development of visualizations for facility managers, or an energy performance assurance role, where metered data are used to generate models that provide live predicted ranges of building performance by end use. These predicted ranges provide simple, visual context for displayed performance data without requiring users to also assess historical information or trends. Several energymodelling techniques were explored including static lookup-based performance targets, reduced-order models derived from historical data using main effect variables such as solar radiance for lighting performance, and integrated energy models using a whole-building energy simulation program.

  13. MODEL OF PROVIDING WITH DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN AN ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Kuzkin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The paper presents research and instructional tools for assessment of providing with the development strategy for information technologies in an organization. Method. The corresponding assessment model is developed which takes into consideration IT-processes equilibrium according to selected efficiency factors of information technologies application. Basic results. The model peculiarity resides in applying neuro-fuzzy approximators where the conclusion is drawn upon fuzzy logic, and membership functions are adjusted through the use of neural networks. For the adequacy testing of the suggested model, due diligence result analysis has been carried out for the IT-strategy executed in the “Navigator” group of companies at the stage of implementation and support of new technologies and production methods. Data visualization with a circle diagram is applied for the comparative evaluation of the analysis results. The chosen model adequacy is proved by the agreement between predictive assessments for IT-strategy performance targets derived by means of the fuzzy cognitive model over 12 months planning horizon and the real values of these targets upon the expiry of the given planning term. Practical significance. The developed model application gives the possibility to solve the problem of sustainability assessment for the process of providing the required IT-strategy realization level based upon the fuzzy cognitive map analysis and to reveal IT-objectives changing tendencies for an organization over the stated planning interval.

  14. Investigating Importance Weighting of Satisfaction Scores from a Formative Model with Partial Least Squares Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chia-Huei; Chen, Lung Hung; Tsai, Ying-Mei

    2009-01-01

    This study introduced a formative model to investigate the utility of importance weighting on satisfaction scores with partial least squares analysis. Based on the bottom-up theory of satisfaction evaluations, the measurement structure for weighted/unweighted domain satisfaction scores was modeled as a formative model, whereas the measurement…

  15. The importance of information goods abstraction levels for information commerce process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnhoven, Alphonsus B.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    A process model, in the context of e-commerce, is an organized set of activities for the creation, (re-)production, trade and delivery of goods. Electronic commerce studies have created important process models for the trade of physical goods via Internet. These models are not easily suitable for

  16. A new process sensitivity index to identify important system processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ye, Ming [Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee Florida USA; Walker, Anthony P. [Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Tennessee USA; Chen, Xingyuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological models are always composed of multiple components that represent processes key to intended model applications. When a process can be simulated by multiple conceptual-mathematical models (process models), model uncertainty in representing the process arises. While global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used for identifying important processes in hydrologic modeling, the existing methods consider only parametric uncertainty but ignore the model uncertainty for process representation. To address this problem, this study develops a new method to probe multimodel process sensitivity by integrating the model averaging methods into the framework of variance-based global sensitivity analysis, given that the model averaging methods quantify both parametric and model uncertainty. A new process sensitivity index is derived as a metric of relative process importance, and the index includes variance in model outputs caused by uncertainty in both process models and model parameters. For demonstration, the new index is used to evaluate the processes of recharge and geology in a synthetic study of groundwater reactive transport modeling. The recharge process is simulated by two models that converting precipitation to recharge, and the geology process is also simulated by two models of different parameterizations of hydraulic conductivity; each process model has its own random parameters. The new process sensitivity index is mathematically general, and can be applied to a wide range of problems in hydrology and beyond.

  17. Simulation model for transcervical laryngeal injection providing real-time feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Tiffiny A; Kobler, James B; Loan, Gregory J; Burns, James A

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to develop and evaluate a model for teaching transcervical laryngeal injections. A 3-dimensional printer was used to create a laryngotracheal framework based on de-identified computed tomography images of a human larynx. The arytenoid cartilages and intrinsic laryngeal musculature were created in silicone from clay casts and thermoplastic molds. The thyroarytenoid (TA) muscle was created with electrically conductive silicone using metallic filaments embedded in silicone. Wires connected TA muscles to an electrical circuit incorporating a cell phone and speaker. A needle electrode completed the circuit when inserted in the TA during simulated injection, providing real-time feedback of successful needle placement by producing an audible sound. Face validation by the senior author confirmed appropriate tactile feedback and anatomical realism. Otolaryngologists pilot tested the model and completed presimulation and postsimulation questionnaires. The high-fidelity simulation model provided tactile and audio feedback during needle placement, simulating transcervical vocal fold injections. Otolaryngology residents demonstrated higher comfort levels with transcervical thyroarytenoid injection on postsimulation questionnaires. This is the first study to describe a simulator for developing transcervical vocal fold injection skills. The model provides real-time tactile and auditory feedback that aids in skill acquisition. Otolaryngologists reported increased confidence with transcervical injection after using the simulator. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Relationship between anaerobic parameters provided from MAOD and critical power model in specific table tennis test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagatto, A M; Gobatto, C A

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the validity of the curvature constant parameter (W'), calculated from 2-parameter mathematical equations of critical power model, in estimating the anaerobic capacity and anaerobic work capacity from a table tennis-specific test. Specifically, we aimed to i) compare constants estimated from three critical intensity models in a table tennis-specific test (Cf); ii) correlate each estimated W' with the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD); iii) correlate each W' with the total amount of anaerobic work (W ANAER) performed in each exercise bout performed during the Cf test. Nine national-standard male table tennis players participated in the study. MAOD was 63.0(10.8) mL · kg - 1 and W' values were 32.8(6.6) balls for the linear-frequency model, 38.3(6.9) balls for linear-total balls model, 48.7(8.9) balls for Nonlinear-2 parameter model. Estimated W' from the Nonlinear 2-parameter model was significantly different from W' from the other 2 models (P0.13). Thus, W' estimated from the 2-parameter mathematical equations did not correlate with MAOD or W ANAER in table tennis-specific tests, indicating that W' may not provide a strong and valid estimation of anaerobic capacity and anaerobic capacity work. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. Preliminary results of an attempt to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassardo, C. [Torino Univ., Torino (Italy). Dipartimento di fisica generale Amedeo Avogadro; Loglisci, N. [ARPA, Torino (Italy). Servizio meteorologico regionale

    2005-03-15

    In the recent years, there has been a significant growth in the recognition of the soil moisture importance in large-scale hydrology and climate modelling. Soil moisture is a lower boundary condition, which rules the partitioning of energy in terms of sensible and latent heat flux. Wrong estimations of soil moisture lead to wrong simulation of the surface layer evolution and hence precipitations and cloud cover forecasts could be consequently affected. This is true for large scale medium-range weather forecasts as well as for local-scale short range weather forecasts, particularly in those situations in which local convection is well developed. Unfortunately; despite the importance of this physical parameter there are only few soil moisture data sets sparse in time and in space around in the world. Due to this scarcity of soil moisture observations, we developed an alternative method to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models. In this paper are presented the preliminary results of an attempt to verify soil moisture fields predicted by a mesoscale model. The data for the comparison were provided by the simulations of the diagnostic land surface scheme LSPM (Land Surface Process Model), widely used at the Piedmont Regional Weather Service for agro-meteorological purposes. To this end, LSPM was initialized and driven by Synop observations, while the surface (vegetation and soil) parameter values were initialized by ECOCLIMAP global dataset at 1km{sup 2} resolution.

  20. Preliminary results of an attempt to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassardo, C.; Loglisci, N.

    2005-01-01

    In the recent years, there has been a significant growth in the recognition of the soil moisture importance in large-scale hydrology and climate modelling. Soil moisture is a lower boundary condition, which rules the partitioning of energy in terms of sensible and latent heat flux. Wrong estimations of soil moisture lead to wrong simulation of the surface layer evolution and hence precipitations and cloud cover forecasts could be consequently affected. This is true for large scale medium-range weather forecasts as well as for local-scale short range weather forecasts, particularly in those situations in which local convection is well developed. Unfortunately; despite the importance of this physical parameter there are only few soil moisture data sets sparse in time and in space around in the world. Due to this scarcity of soil moisture observations, we developed an alternative method to provide soil moisture datasets in order to verify numerical weather prediction models. In this paper are presented the preliminary results of an attempt to verify soil moisture fields predicted by a mesoscale model. The data for the comparison were provided by the simulations of the diagnostic land surface scheme LSPM (Land Surface Process Model), widely used at the Piedmont Regional Weather Service for agro-meteorological purposes. To this end, LSPM was initialized and driven by Synop observations, while the surface (vegetation and soil) parameter values were initialized by ECOCLIMAP global dataset at 1km 2 resolution

  1. Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

  2. Role Modeling in Medical Education: The Importance of a Reflective Imitation

    OpenAIRE

    Benbassat, Jochanan

    2014-01-01

    The medical literature almost uniformly addresses the positive aspects of role modeling. Still, some authors have questioned its educational value, a disagreement that is probably due to differing definitions of role modeling. If defined as demonstration of skills, provision of feedback, and emulation of specific professional behaviors, then role modeling is an important component of clinical training. However, if it is defined as a learner?s unselective imitation of role models and uncritica...

  3. Biomass transformation webs provide a unified approach to consumer-resource modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M

    2011-02-01

    An approach to modelling food web biomass flows among live and dead compartments within and among species is formulated using metaphysiological principles that characterise population growth in terms of basal metabolism, feeding, senescence and exploitation. This leads to a unified approach to modelling interactions among plants, herbivores, carnivores, scavengers, parasites and their resources. Also, dichotomising sessile miners from mobile gatherers of resources, with relevance to feeding and starvation time scales, suggests a new classification scheme involving 10 primary categories of consumer types. These types, in various combinations, rigorously distinguish scavenger from parasite, herbivory from phytophagy and detritivore from decomposer. Application of the approach to particular consumer-resource interactions is demonstrated, culminating in the construction of an anthrax-centred food web model, with parameters applicable to Etosha National Park, Namibia, where deaths of elephants and zebra from the bacterial pathogen, Bacillus anthracis, provide significant subsidies to jackals, vultures and other scavengers. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  4. Biomass transformation webs provide a unified approach to consumer–resource modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M.

    2011-01-01

    An approach to modelling food web biomass flows among live and dead compartments within and among species is formulated using metaphysiological principles that characterise population growth in terms of basal metabolism, feeding, senescence and exploitation. This leads to a unified approach to modelling interactions among plants, herbivores, carnivores, scavengers, parasites and their resources. Also, dichotomising sessile miners from mobile gatherers of resources, with relevance to feeding and starvation time scales, suggests a new classification scheme involving 10 primary categories of consumer types. These types, in various combinations, rigorously distinguish scavenger from parasite, herbivory from phytophagy and detritivore from decomposer. Application of the approach to particular consumer–resource interactions is demonstrated, culminating in the construction of an anthrax-centred food web model, with parameters applicable to Etosha National Park, Namibia, where deaths of elephants and zebra from the bacterial pathogen, Bacillus anthracis, provide significant subsidies to jackals, vultures and other scavengers. PMID:21199247

  5. Modeling Key Drivers of Cholera Transmission Dynamics Provides New Perspectives for Parasitology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, Andrea; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Blokesch, Melanie; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino

    2017-08-01

    Hydroclimatological and anthropogenic factors are key drivers of waterborne disease transmission. Information on human settlements and host mobility on waterways along which pathogens and hosts disperse, and relevant hydroclimatological processes, can be acquired remotely and included in spatially explicit mathematical models of disease transmission. In the case of epidemic cholera, such models allowed the description of complex disease patterns and provided insight into the course of ongoing epidemics. The inclusion of spatial information in models of disease transmission can aid in emergency management and the assessment of alternative interventions. Here, we review the study of drivers of transmission via spatially explicit approaches and argue that, because many parasitic waterborne diseases share the same drivers as cholera, similar principles may apply. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A Complex of Business Process Management Models for a Service-Providing IT Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yatsenko Roman M.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an analysis of a complex of business process management models that are designed to improve the performance of service-providing IT companies. This class of enterprises was selected because of their significant contribution to the Ukrainian economy: third place in the structure of exports, significant budget revenues, high development dynamics, and prospects in the global marketplace. The selected complex of models is designed as a sequence of stages that must be accomplished in order to optimize business processes. The first stage is an analysis of the nature of the process approach, approaches to strategic management, and the characteristics of service-providing IT companies. The second stage is to build the formal and hierarchical models to define the characteristics of the business processes and their structure, respectively. The third stage is to evaluate individual business processes (information model and the entire business process system (multi-level assessment of business processes. The fourth stage is to optimize the business processes at each level: strategic, tactical and operational. The fifth stage is to restructure the business processes after optimization. The sixth (final stage is to analyze the efficiency of the restructured system of business processes.

  7. Pharmacists providing care in the outpatient setting through telemedicine models: a narrative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Littauer SL

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Telemedicine refers to the delivery of clinical services using technology that allows two-way, real time, interactive communication between the patient and the clinician at a distant site. Commonly, telemedicine is used to improve access to general and specialty care for patients in rural areas. This review aims to provide an overview of existing telemedicine models involving the delivery of care by pharmacists via telemedicine (including telemonitoring and video, but excluding follow-up telephone calls and to highlight the main areas of chronic-disease management where these models have been applied. Studies within the areas of hypertension, diabetes, asthma, anticoagulation and depression were identified, but only two randomized controlled trials with adequate sample size demonstrating the positive impact of telemonitoring combined with pharmacist care in hypertension were identified. The evidence for the impact of pharmacist-based telemedicine models is sparse and weak, with the studies conducted presenting serious threats to internal and external validity. Therefore, no definitive conclusions about the impact of pharmacist-led telemedicine models can be made at this time. In the Unites States, the increasing shortage of primary care providers and specialists represents an opportunity for pharmacists to assume a more prominent role managing patients with chronic disease in the ambulatory care setting. However, lack of reimbursement may pose a barrier to the provision of care by pharmacists using telemedicine.

  8. Agent-based organizational modelling for analysis of safety culture at an air navigation service provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Kirwan, Barry

    2011-01-01

    Assessment of safety culture is done predominantly by questionnaire-based studies, which tend to reveal attitudes on immaterial characteristics (values, beliefs, norms). There is a need for a better understanding of the implications of the material aspects of an organization (structures, processes, etc.) for safety culture and their interactions with the immaterial characteristics. This paper presents a new agent-based organizational modelling approach for integrated and systematic evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations in safety culture analysis. It uniquely considers both the formal organization and the value- and belief-driven behaviour of individuals in the organization. Results are presented of a model for safety occurrence reporting at an air navigation service provider. Model predictions consistent with questionnaire-based results are achieved. A sensitivity analysis provides insight in organizational factors that strongly influence safety culture indicators. The modelling approach can be used in combination with attitude-focused safety culture research, towards an integrated evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations. By using this approach an organization is able to gain a deeper understanding of causes of diverse problems and inefficiencies both in the formal organization and in the behaviour of organizational agents, and to systematically identify and evaluate improvement options.

  9. Modeling fMRI signals can provide insights into neural processing in the cerebral cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanni, Simo; Sharifian, Fariba; Heikkinen, Hanna; Vigário, Ricardo

    2015-08-01

    Every stimulus or task activates multiple areas in the mammalian cortex. These distributed activations can be measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which has the best spatial resolution among the noninvasive brain imaging methods. Unfortunately, the relationship between the fMRI activations and distributed cortical processing has remained unclear, both because the coupling between neural and fMRI activations has remained poorly understood and because fMRI voxels are too large to directly sense the local neural events. To get an idea of the local processing given the macroscopic data, we need models to simulate the neural activity and to provide output that can be compared with fMRI data. Such models can describe neural mechanisms as mathematical functions between input and output in a specific system, with little correspondence to physiological mechanisms. Alternatively, models can be biomimetic, including biological details with straightforward correspondence to experimental data. After careful balancing between complexity, computational efficiency, and realism, a biomimetic simulation should be able to provide insight into how biological structures or functions contribute to actual data processing as well as to promote theory-driven neuroscience experiments. This review analyzes the requirements for validating system-level computational models with fMRI. In particular, we study mesoscopic biomimetic models, which include a limited set of details from real-life networks and enable system-level simulations of neural mass action. In addition, we discuss how recent developments in neurophysiology and biophysics may significantly advance the modelling of fMRI signals. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  10. Monte Carlo modeling provides accurate calibration factors for radionuclide activity meters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagni, F.; Cicoria, G.; Lucconi, G.; Infantino, A.; Lodi, F.; Marengo, M.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate determination of calibration factors for radionuclide activity meters is crucial for quantitative studies and in the optimization step of radiation protection, as these detectors are widespread in radiopharmacy and nuclear medicine facilities. In this work we developed the Monte Carlo model of a widely used activity meter, using the Geant4 simulation toolkit. More precisely the “PENELOPE” EM physics models were employed. The model was validated by means of several certified sources, traceable to primary activity standards, and other sources locally standardized with spectrometry measurements, plus other experimental tests. Great care was taken in order to accurately reproduce the geometrical details of the gas chamber and the activity sources, each of which is different in shape and enclosed in a unique container. Both relative calibration factors and ionization current obtained with simulations were compared against experimental measurements; further tests were carried out, such as the comparison of the relative response of the chamber for a source placed at different positions. The results showed a satisfactory level of accuracy in the energy range of interest, with the discrepancies lower than 4% for all the tested parameters. This shows that an accurate Monte Carlo modeling of this type of detector is feasible using the low-energy physics models embedded in Geant4. The obtained Monte Carlo model establishes a powerful tool for first instance determination of new calibration factors for non-standard radionuclides, for custom containers, when a reference source is not available. Moreover, the model provides an experimental setup for further research and optimization with regards to materials and geometrical details of the measuring setup, such as the ionization chamber itself or the containers configuration. - Highlights: • We developed a Monte Carlo model of a radionuclide activity meter using Geant4. • The model was validated using several

  11. Light neutron-rich hypernuclei from the importance-truncated no-core shell model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Roland; Roth, Robert

    2018-04-01

    We explore the systematics of ground-state and excitation energies in singly-strange hypernuclei throughout the helium and lithium isotopic chains - from He5Λ to He11Λ and from Li7Λ to Li12Λ - in the ab initio no-core shell model with importance truncation. All calculations are based on two- and three-baryon interaction from chiral effective field theory and we employ a similarity renormalization group transformation consistently up to the three-baryon level to improve the model-space convergence. While the absolute energies of hypernuclear states show a systematic variation with the regulator cutoff of the hyperon-nucleon interaction, the resulting neutron separation energies are very stable and in good agreement with available data for both nucleonic parents and their daughter hypernuclei. We provide predictions for the neutron separation energies and the spectra of neutron-rich hypernuclei that have not yet been observed experimentally. Furthermore, we find that the neutron drip lines in the helium and lithium isotopic chains are not changed by the addition of a hyperon.

  12. Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Liana N; Elkin, Ché; Martin, Tara G; Possinghami, Hugh P

    2009-04-01

    Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the "best model" according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a

  13. Capabilities of stochastic rainfall models as data providers for urban hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    For planning of urban drainage systems using hydrological models, long, continuous precipitation series with high temporal resolution are needed. Since observed time series are often too short or not available everywhere, the use of synthetic precipitation is a common alternative. This contribution compares three precipitation models regarding their suitability to provide 5 minute continuous rainfall time series for a) sizing of drainage networks for urban flood protection and b) dimensioning of combined sewage systems for pollution reduction. The rainfall models are a parametric stochastic model (Haberlandt et al., 2008), a non-parametric probabilistic approach (Bárdossy, 1998) and a stochastic downscaling of dynamically simulated rainfall (Berg et al., 2013); all models are operated both as single site and multi-site generators. The models are applied with regionalised parameters assuming that there is no station at the target location. Rainfall and discharge characteristics are utilised for evaluation of the model performance. The simulation results are compared against results obtained from reference rainfall stations not used for parameter estimation. The rainfall simulations are carried out for the federal states of Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony in Germany and the discharge simulations for the drainage networks of the cities of Hamburg, Brunswick and Freiburg. Altogether, the results show comparable simulation performance for the three models, good capabilities for single site simulations but low skills for multi-site simulations. Remarkably, there is no significant difference in simulation performance comparing the tasks flood protection with pollution reduction, so the models are finally able to simulate both the extremes and the long term characteristics of rainfall equally well. Bárdossy, A., 1998. Generating precipitation time series using simulated annealing. Wat. Resour. Res., 34(7): 1737-1744. Berg, P., Wagner, S., Kunstmann, H., Schädler, G

  14. Analytical modeling provides new insight into complex mutual coupling between surface loops at ultrahigh fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avdievich, N I; Pfrommer, A; Giapitzakis, I A; Henning, A

    2017-10-01

    Ultrahigh-field (UHF) (≥7 T) transmit (Tx) human head surface loop phased arrays improve both the Tx efficiency (B 1 + /√P) and homogeneity in comparison with single-channel quadrature Tx volume coils. For multi-channel arrays, decoupling becomes one of the major problems during the design process. Further insight into the coupling between array elements and its dependence on various factors can facilitate array development. The evaluation of the entire impedance matrix Z for an array loaded with a realistic voxel model or phantom is a time-consuming procedure when performed using electromagnetic (EM) solvers. This motivates the development of an analytical model, which could provide a quick assessment of the Z-matrix. In this work, an analytical model based on dyadic Green's functions was developed and validated using an EM solver and bench measurements. The model evaluates the complex coupling, including both the electric (mutual resistance) and magnetic (mutual inductance) coupling. Validation demonstrated that the model does well to describe the coupling at lower fields (≤3 T). At UHFs, the model also performs well for a practical case of low magnetic coupling. Based on the modeling, the geometry of a 400-MHz, two-loop transceiver array was optimized, such that, by simply overlapping the loops, both the mutual inductance and the mutual resistance were compensated at the same time. As a result, excellent decoupling (below -40 dB) was obtained without any additional decoupling circuits. An overlapped array prototype was compared (signal-to-noise ratio, Tx efficiency) favorably to a gapped array, a geometry which has been utilized previously in designs of UHF Tx arrays. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Risk-based maintenance modeling. Prioritization of maintenance importances and quantification of maintenance effectiveness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesely, W.E.; Rezos, J.T. [Science Applications International Corp., Dublin, OH (United States)

    1995-09-01

    This report describes methods for prioritizing the risk importances of maintenances using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Approaches then are described for quantifying their reliability and risk effects. Two different PRA importance measures, minimal cutset importances and risk reduction importances, were used to prioritize maintenances; the findings show that both give similar results if appropriate criteria are used. The justifications for the particular importance measures also are developed. The methods developed to quantify the reliability and risk effects of maintenance actions are extensions of the usual reliability models now used in PRAs. These extended models consider degraded states of the component, and quantify the benefits of maintenance in correcting degradations and preventing failures. The negative effects of maintenance, including downtimes, also are included. These models are specific types of Markov models. The data for these models can be obtained from plant maintenance logs and from the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data System (NPRDS). To explore the potential usefulness of these models, the authors analyzed a range of postulated values of input data. These models were used to examine maintenance effects on a components reliability and performance for various maintenance programs and component data. Maintenance schedules were analyzed to optimize the component`s availability. In specific cases, the effects of maintenance were found to be large.

  16. Providing a more complete view of ice-age palaeoclimates using model inversion and data interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleator, Sean; Harrison, Sandy P.; Roulstone, Ian; Nichols, Nancy K.; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    Site-based pollen records have been used to provide quantitative reconstructions of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climates, but there are too few such records to provide continuous climate fields for the evaluation of climate model simulations. Furthermore, many of the reconstructions were made using modern-analogue techniques, which do not account for the direct impact of CO2 on water-use efficiency and therefore reconstruct considerably drier conditions under low CO2 at the LGM than indicated by other sources of information. We have shown that it is possible to correct analogue-based moisture reconstructions for this effect by inverting a simple light-use efficiency model of productivity, based on the principle that the rate of water loss per unit carbon gain of a plant is the same under conditions of the true moisture, palaeotemperature and palaeo CO2 concentration as under reconstructed moisture, modern CO2 concentration and modern temperature (Prentice et al., 2016). In this study, we use data from the Bartlein el al. (2011) dataset, which provides reconstructions of one or more of six climate variables (mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the warmest and coldest months, the length of the growing seasons, mean annual precipitation, and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration) at individual LGM sites. We use the SPLASH water-balance model to derive a moisture index (MI) at each site from mean annual precipitation and monthly values of sunshine fraction and average temperature, and correct this MI using the Prentice et al. (2016) inversion approach. We then use a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme with the SPLASH model and Prentice et al. (2016) inversion approach to derive reconstructions of all six climate variables at each site, using the Bartlein et al. (2011) data set as a target. We use two alternative background climate states (or priors): modern climate derived from the CRU CL v2.0 data set (New et al., 2002

  17. Scientist Role Models in the Classroom: How Important Is Gender Matching?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, Laura D. Carsten; Danielson, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Gender-matched role models are often proposed as a mechanism to increase identification with science among girls, with the ultimate aim of broadening participation in science. While there is a great deal of evidence suggesting that role models can be effective, there is mixed support in the literature for the importance of gender matching. We used…

  18. Why Knowledge Modeling is Important for Business and for a Danish Terminology and Knowledge Bank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdman Thomsen, Hanne; Madsen, Bodil Nistrup

    2011-01-01

    , and possibly other languages, so information must be freely retrievable and communicable in several languages. In this paper I will give examples of why knowledge modeling is important for businesses, and why knowledge modeling is a central part of the DanTermBank project, the aim of which is to lay...

  19. The importance of the reference populations for coherent mortality forecasting models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Søren; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Vaupel, James W.

    -population mortality models aiming to find the optimal of the set of countries to use as reference population and analyse the importance of the selection of countries. The two multi-population mortality models used are the Li-Lee model and the Double-Gap life expectancy forecasting model. The reference populations...... is calculated taking into account all the possible combinations of a set of 20 industrialized countries. The different reference populations possibilities are compared by their forecast performance. The results show that the selection of countries for multi-population mortality models has a significant effect...

  20. NSG Mice Provide a Better Spontaneous Model of Breast Cancer Metastasis than Athymic (Nude Mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhavi Puchalapalli

    Full Text Available Metastasis is the most common cause of mortality in breast cancer patients worldwide. To identify improved mouse models for breast cancer growth and spontaneous metastasis, we examined growth and metastasis of both estrogen receptor positive (T47D and negative (MDA-MB-231, SUM1315, and CN34BrM human breast cancer cells in nude and NSG mice. Both primary tumor growth and spontaneous metastases were increased in NSG mice compared to nude mice. In addition, a pattern of metastasis similar to that observed in human breast cancer patients (metastases to the lungs, liver, bones, brain, and lymph nodes was found in NSG mice. Furthermore, there was an increase in the metastatic burden in NSG compared to nude mice that were injected with MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells in an intracardiac experimental metastasis model. This data demonstrates that NSG mice provide a better model for studying human breast cancer metastasis compared to the current nude mouse model.

  1. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  2. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  3. The Importance of Understanding MHC-I Diversity in Nonhuman Primate Models of Human Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maness, Nicholas J

    2017-01-01

    Decades of research, including the 1996 Nobel Prize in Medicine, confirm the evolutionary and immunological importance of CD8 T lymphocytes (TCD8+) that target peptides bound by the highly variable major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) proteins. However, their perceived importance has varied dramatically over the past decade. Regardless, there remains myriad reasons to consider the diversity of MHC-I alleles and the TCD8+ that target them as enormously important in infectious disease research. Thus, understanding these molecules in the best animal models of human disease could be a necessity for optimizing the translational potential of these models. Knowledge of macaque MHC has substantially improved their utility for modeling HIV and could aid in modeling other viruses as well, both in the context of distribution of alleles across treatment groups in vaccine trials and in deciphering mechanisms of immune control of pathogens for which specific MHC alleles demonstrate differential impacts on disease.

  4. Importance of demand modelling in network water quality models : A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blokker, E.J.M.; Vreeburg, J.H.G.; Buchberger, S.G.; Van Dijk, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    Today, there is a growing interest in network water quality modelling. The water quality issues of interest relate to both dissolved and particulate substances. For dissolved substances the main interest is in residual chlorine and (microbiological) contaminant propagation; for particulate

  5. Quantitative Hydraulic Models Of Early Land Plants Provide Insight Into Middle Paleozoic Terrestrial Paleoenvironmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. P.; Fischer, W. W.

    2010-12-01

    Fossil plants provide useful proxies of Earth’s climate because plants are closely connected, through physiology and morphology, to the environments in which they lived. Recent advances in quantitative hydraulic models of plant water transport provide new insight into the history of climate by allowing fossils to speak directly to environmental conditions based on preserved internal anatomy. We report results of a quantitative hydraulic model applied to one of the earliest terrestrial plants preserved in three dimensions, the ~396 million-year-old vascular plant Asteroxylon mackei. This model combines equations describing the rate of fluid flow through plant tissues with detailed observations of plant anatomy; this allows quantitative estimates of two critical aspects of plant function. First and foremost, results from these models quantify the supply of water to evaporative surfaces; second, results describe the ability of plant vascular systems to resist tensile damage from extreme environmental events, such as drought or frost. This approach permits quantitative comparisons of functional aspects of Asteroxylon with other extinct and extant plants, informs the quality of plant-based environmental proxies, and provides concrete data that can be input into climate models. Results indicate that despite their small size, water transport cells in Asteroxylon could supply a large volume of water to the plant's leaves--even greater than cells from some later-evolved seed plants. The smallest Asteroxylon tracheids have conductivities exceeding 0.015 m^2 / MPa * s, whereas Paleozoic conifer tracheids do not reach this threshold until they are three times wider. However, this increase in conductivity came at the cost of little to no adaptations for transport safety, placing the plant’s vegetative organs in jeopardy during drought events. Analysis of the thickness-to-span ratio of Asteroxylon’s tracheids suggests that environmental conditions of reduced relative

  6. Do NHS walk-in centres in England provide a model of integrated care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Salisbury

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To undertake a comprehensive evaluation of NHS walk-in centres against criteria of improved access, quality, user satisfaction and efficiency. Context: Forty NHS walk-in centres have been opened in England, as part of the UK governments agenda to modernise the NHS. They are intended to improve access to primary care, provide high quality treatment at convenient times, and reduce inappropriate demand on other NHS providers. Care is provided by nurses rather than doctors, using computerised algorithms, and nurses use protocols to supply treatments previously only available from doctors. Data sources: Several linked studies were conducted using different sources of data and methodologies. These included routinely collected data, site visits, patient interviews, a survey of users of walk-in centres, a study using simulated patients to assess quality of care, analysis of consultation rates in NHS services near to walk-in centres, and audit of compliance with protocols. Conclusion & discussion: The findings illustrate many of the issues described in a recent WHO reflective paper on Integrated Care, including tensions between professional judgement and use of protocols, problems with incompatible IT systems, balancing users' demands and needs, the importance of understanding health professionals' roles and issues of technical versus allocative efficiency.

  7. The impact of pediatric neuropsychological consultation in mild traumatic brain injury: a model for providing feedback after invalid performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connery, Amy K; Peterson, Robin L; Baker, David A; Kirkwood, Michael W

    2016-05-01

    In recent years, pediatric practitioners have increasingly recognized the importance of objectively measuring performance validity during clinical assessments. Yet, no studies have examined the impact of neuropsychological consultation when invalid performance has been identified in pediatric populations and little published guidance exists for clinical management. Here we provide a conceptual model for providing feedback after noncredible performance has been detected. In a pilot study, we examine caregiver satisfaction and postconcussive symptoms following provision of this feedback for patients seen through our concussion program. Participants (N = 70) were 8-17-year-olds with a history of mild traumatic brain injury who underwent an abbreviated neuropsychological evaluation between 2 and 12 months post-injury. We examined postconcussive symptom reduction and caregiver satisfaction after neuropsychological evaluation between groups of patients who were determined to have provided noncredible effort (n = 9) and those for whom no validity concerns were present (n = 61). We found similarly high levels of caregiver satisfaction between groups and greater reduction in self-reported symptoms after feedback was provided using the model with children with noncredible presentations compared to those with credible presentations. The current study lends preliminary support to the idea that the identification and communication of invalid performance can be a beneficial clinical intervention that promotes high levels of caregiver satisfaction and a reduction in self-reported and caregiver-reported symptoms.

  8. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  9. MODEL REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE ENERGY AND OTHER ATTRIBUTES FROM AN OFFSHORE WIND POWER PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeremy Firestone; Dawn Kurtz Crompton

    2011-10-22

    This document provides a model RFP for new generation. The 'base' RFP is for a single-source offshore wind RFP. Required modifications are noted should a state or utility seek multi-source bids (e.g., all renewables or all sources). The model is premised on proposals meeting threshold requirements (e.g., a MW range of generating capacity and a range in terms of years), RFP issuer preferences (e.g., likelihood of commercial operation by a date certain, price certainty, and reduction in congestion), and evaluation criteria, along with a series of plans (e.g., site, environmental effects, construction, community outreach, interconnection, etc.). The Model RFP places the most weight on project risk (45%), followed by project economics (35%), and environmental and social considerations (20%). However, if a multi-source RFP is put forward, the sponsor would need to either add per-MWh technology-specific, life-cycle climate (CO2), environmental and health impact costs to bid prices under the 'Project Economics' category or it should increase the weight given to the 'Environmental and Social Considerations' category.

  10. Mathematical modeling provides kinetic details of the human immune response to vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin eLe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With major advances in experimental techniques to track antigen-specific immune responses many basic questions on the kinetics of virus-specific immunity in humans remain unanswered. To gain insights into kinetics of T and B cell responses in human volunteers we combine mathematical models and experimental data from recent studies employing vaccines against yellow fever and smallpox. Yellow fever virus-specific CD8 T cell population expanded slowly with the average doubling time of 2 days peaking 2.5 weeks post immunization. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the yellow fever-specific CD8 T cell response is determined by the rate of T cell proliferation and not by the precursor frequency of antigen-specific cells as has been suggested in several studies in mice. We also found that while the frequency of virus-specific T cells increases slowly, the slow increase can still accurately explain clearance of yellow fever virus in the blood. Our additional mathematical model describes well the kinetics of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell and antibody response to vaccinia virus in vaccinated individuals suggesting that most of antibodies in 3 months post immunization are derived from the population of circulating antibody-secreting cells. Taken together, our analysis provides novel insights into mechanisms by which live vaccines induce immunity to viral infections and highlight challenges of applying methods of mathematical modeling to the current, state-of-the-art yet limited immunological data.

  11. Mathematical modeling provides kinetic details of the human immune response to vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Dustin; Miller, Joseph D; Ganusov, Vitaly V

    2014-01-01

    With major advances in experimental techniques to track antigen-specific immune responses many basic questions on the kinetics of virus-specific immunity in humans remain unanswered. To gain insights into kinetics of T and B cell responses in human volunteers we combined mathematical models and experimental data from recent studies employing vaccines against yellow fever and smallpox. Yellow fever virus-specific CD8 T cell population expanded slowly with the average doubling time of 2 days peaking 2.5 weeks post immunization. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the yellow fever-specific CD8 T cell response was determined by the rate of T cell proliferation and not by the precursor frequency of antigen-specific cells as has been suggested in several studies in mice. We also found that while the frequency of virus-specific T cells increased slowly, the slow increase could still accurately explain clearance of yellow fever virus in the blood. Our additional mathematical model described well the kinetics of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell and antibody response to vaccinia virus in vaccinated individuals suggesting that most of antibodies in 3 months post immunization were derived from the population of circulating antibody-secreting cells. Taken together, our analysis provided novel insights into mechanisms by which live vaccines induce immunity to viral infections and highlighted challenges of applying methods of mathematical modeling to the current, state-of-the-art yet limited immunological data.

  12. Guarana Provides Additional Stimulation over Caffeine Alone in the Planarian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustakas, Dimitrios; Mezzio, Michael; Rodriguez, Branden R.; Constable, Mic Andre; Mulligan, Margaret E.; Voura, Evelyn B.

    2015-01-01

    The stimulant effect of energy drinks is primarily attributed to the caffeine they contain. Many energy drinks also contain other ingredients that might enhance the tonic effects of these caffeinated beverages. One of these additives is guarana. Guarana is a climbing plant native to the Amazon whose seeds contain approximately four times the amount of caffeine found in coffee beans. The mix of other natural chemicals contained in guarana seeds is thought to heighten the stimulant effects of guarana over caffeine alone. Yet, despite the growing use of guarana as an additive in energy drinks, and a burgeoning market for it as a nutritional supplement, the science examining guarana and how it affects other dietary ingredients is lacking. To appreciate the stimulant effects of guarana and other natural products, a straightforward model to investigate their physiological properties is needed. The planarian provides such a system. The locomotor activity and convulsive response of planarians with substance exposure has been shown to provide an excellent system to measure the effects of drug stimulation, addiction and withdrawal. To gauge the stimulant effects of guarana we studied how it altered the locomotor activity of the planarian species Dugesia tigrina. We report evidence that guarana seeds provide additional stimulation over caffeine alone, and document the changes to this stimulation in the context of both caffeine and glucose. PMID:25880065

  13. Guarana provides additional stimulation over caffeine alone in the planarian model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Moustakas

    Full Text Available The stimulant effect of energy drinks is primarily attributed to the caffeine they contain. Many energy drinks also contain other ingredients that might enhance the tonic effects of these caffeinated beverages. One of these additives is guarana. Guarana is a climbing plant native to the Amazon whose seeds contain approximately four times the amount of caffeine found in coffee beans. The mix of other natural chemicals contained in guarana seeds is thought to heighten the stimulant effects of guarana over caffeine alone. Yet, despite the growing use of guarana as an additive in energy drinks, and a burgeoning market for it as a nutritional supplement, the science examining guarana and how it affects other dietary ingredients is lacking. To appreciate the stimulant effects of guarana and other natural products, a straightforward model to investigate their physiological properties is needed. The planarian provides such a system. The locomotor activity and convulsive response of planarians with substance exposure has been shown to provide an excellent system to measure the effects of drug stimulation, addiction and withdrawal. To gauge the stimulant effects of guarana we studied how it altered the locomotor activity of the planarian species Dugesia tigrina. We report evidence that guarana seeds provide additional stimulation over caffeine alone, and document the changes to this stimulation in the context of both caffeine and glucose.

  14. The importance of spatial models for estimating the strength of density dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Skaug, Hans J.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    for an entire population. However, it is increasingly recognized that spatial heterogeneity in population densities has implications for population and community dynamics. We therefore adapt the Gompertz model to approximate local densities over continuous space instead of population-wide abundance...... the California Coast. In this case, the nonspatial model estimates implausible oscillatory dynamics on an annual time scale, while the spatial model estimates strong autocorrelation and is supported by model selection tools. We conclude by discussing the importance of improved data archiving techniques, so...

  15. Importance analysis for models with correlated variables and its sparse grid solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Luyi; Lu, Zhenzhou

    2013-01-01

    For structural models involving correlated input variables, a novel interpretation for variance-based importance measures is proposed based on the contribution of the correlated input variables to the variance of the model output. After the novel interpretation of the variance-based importance measures is compared with the existing ones, two solutions of the variance-based importance measures of the correlated input variables are built on the sparse grid numerical integration (SGI): double-loop nested sparse grid integration (DSGI) method and single loop sparse grid integration (SSGI) method. The DSGI method solves the importance measure by decreasing the dimensionality of the input variables procedurally, while SSGI method performs importance analysis through extending the dimensionality of the inputs. Both of them can make full use of the advantages of the SGI, and are well tailored for different situations. By analyzing the results of several numerical and engineering examples, it is found that the novel proposed interpretation about the importance measures of the correlated input variables is reasonable, and the proposed methods for solving importance measures are efficient and accurate. -- Highlights: •The contribution of correlated variables to the variance of the output is analyzed. •A novel interpretation for variance-based indices of correlated variables is proposed. •Two solutions for variance-based importance measures of correlated variables are built

  16. The Nordic welfare model providing energy transition? A political geography approach to the EU RES directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westholm, Erik; Beland Lindahl, Karin

    2012-01-01

    The EU Renewable Energy Strategy (RES) Directive requires that each member state obtain 20% of its energy supply from renewable sources by 2020. If fully implemented, this implies major changes in institutions, infrastructure, land use, and natural resource flows. This study applies a political geography perspective to explore the transition to renewable energy use in the heating and cooling segment of the Swedish energy system, 1980–2010. The Nordic welfare model, which developed mainly after the Second World War, required relatively uniform, standardized local and regional authorities functioning as implementation agents for national politics. Since 1980, the welfare orientation has gradually been complemented by competition politics promoting technological change, innovation, and entrepreneurship. This combination of welfare state organization and competition politics provided the dynamics necessary for energy transition, which occurred in a semi-public sphere of actors at various geographical scales. However, our analysis, suggest that this was partly an unintended policy outcome, since it was based on a welfare model with no significant energy aims. Our case study suggests that state organization plays a significant role, and that the EU RES Directive implementation will be uneven across Europe, reflecting various welfare models with different institutional pre-requisites for energy transition. - Highlights: ► We explore the energy transition in the heating/cooling sector in Sweden 1980–2000. ► The role of the state is studied from a political geography perspective. ► The changing welfare model offered the necessary institutional framework. ► Institutional arrangements stand out as central to explain the relative success. ► The use of renewables in EU member states will continue to vary significantly.

  17. Biological Model Development as an Opportunity to Provide Content Auditing for the Foundational Model of Anatomy Ontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lucy L; Grunblatt, Eli; Jung, Hyunggu; Kalet, Ira J; Whipple, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Constructing a biological model using an established ontology provides a unique opportunity to perform content auditing on the ontology. We built a Markov chain model to study tumor metastasis in the regional lymphatics of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The model attempts to determine regions with high likelihood for metastasis, which guides surgeons and radiation oncologists in selecting the boundaries of treatment. To achieve consistent anatomical relationships, the nodes in our model are populated using lymphatic objects extracted from the Foundational Model of Anatomy (FMA) ontology. During this process, we discovered several classes of inconsistencies in the lymphatic representations within the FMA. We were able to use this model building opportunity to audit the entities and connections in this region of interest (ROI). We found five subclasses of errors that are computationally detectable and resolvable, one subclass of errors that is computationally detectable but unresolvable, requiring the assistance of a content expert, and also errors of content, which cannot be detected through computational means. Mathematical descriptions of detectable errors along with expert review were used to discover inconsistencies and suggest concepts for addition and removal. Out of 106 organ and organ parts in the ROI, 8 unique entities were affected, leading to the suggestion of 30 concepts for addition and 4 for removal. Out of 27 lymphatic chain instances, 23 were found to have errors, with a total of 32 concepts suggested for addition and 15 concepts for removal. These content corrections are necessary for the accurate functioning of the FMA and provide benefits for future research and educational uses.

  18. Ecosystem Services Provided by Agricultural Land as Modeled by Broad Scale Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkinidis, Ioannis

    Agricultural ecosystems provide multiple services including food and fiber provision, nutrient cycling, soil retention and water regulation. Objectives of the study were to identify and quantify a selection of ecosystem services provided by agricultural land, using existing geospatial tools and preferably free and open source data, such as the Virginia Land Use Evaluation System (VALUES), the North Carolina Realistic Yield Expectations (RYE) database, and the land cover datasets NLCD and CDL. Furthermore I sought to model tradeoffs between provisioning and other services. First I assessed the accuracy of agricultural land in NLCD and CDL over a four county area in eastern Virginia using cadastral parcels. I uncovered issues concerning the definition of agricultural land. The area and location of agriculture saw little change in the 19 years studied. Furthermore all datasets have significant errors of omission (11.3 to 95.1%) and commission (0 to 71.3%). Location of agriculture was used with spatial crop yield databases I created and combined with models I adapted to calculate baseline values for plant biomass, nutrient composition and requirements, land suitability for and potential production of biofuels and the economic impact of agriculture for the four counties. The study area was then broadened to cover 97 counties in eastern Virginia and North Carolina, investigating the potential for increased regional grain production through intensification and extensification of agriculture. Predicted yield from geospatial crop models was compared with produced yield from the NASS Survey of Agriculture. Area of most crops in CDL was similar to that in the Survey of Agriculture, but a yield gap is present for most years, partially due to weather, thus indicating potential for yield increase through intensification. Using simple criteria I quantified the potential to extend agriculture in high yield land in other uses and modeled the changes in erosion and runoff should

  19. Multiple imputation as one tool to provide longitudinal databases for modelling human height and weight development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aßmann, C

    2016-06-01

    Besides large efforts regarding field work, provision of valid databases requires statistical and informational infrastructure to enable long-term access to longitudinal data sets on height, weight and related issues. To foster use of longitudinal data sets within the scientific community, provision of valid databases has to address data-protection regulations. It is, therefore, of major importance to hinder identifiability of individuals from publicly available databases. To reach this goal, one possible strategy is to provide a synthetic database to the public allowing for pretesting strategies for data analysis. The synthetic databases can be established using multiple imputation tools. Given the approval of the strategy, verification is based on the original data. Multiple imputation by chained equations is illustrated to facilitate provision of synthetic databases as it allows for capturing a wide range of statistical interdependencies. Also missing values, typically occurring within longitudinal databases for reasons of item non-response, can be addressed via multiple imputation when providing databases. The provision of synthetic databases using multiple imputation techniques is one possible strategy to ensure data protection, increase visibility of longitudinal databases and enhance the analytical potential.

  20. Latent-variable approaches to the Jamesian model of importance-weighted averages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scalas, L Francesca; Marsh, Herbert W; Nagengast, Benjamin; Morin, Alexandre J S

    2013-01-01

    The individually importance-weighted average (IIWA) model posits that the contribution of specific areas of self-concept to global self-esteem varies systematically with the individual importance placed on each specific component. Although intuitively appealing, this model has weak empirical support; thus, within the framework of a substantive-methodological synergy, we propose a multiple-item latent approach to the IIWA model as applied to a range of self-concept domains (physical, academic, spiritual self-concepts) and subdomains (appearance, math, verbal self-concepts) in young adolescents from two countries. Tests considering simultaneously the effects of self-concept domains on trait self-esteem did not support the IIWA model. On the contrary, support for a normative group importance model was found, in which importance varied as a function of domains but not individuals. Individuals differentially weight the various components of self-concept; however, the weights are largely determined by normative processes, so that little additional information is gained from individual weightings.

  1. Ab Initio Study of 40Ca with an Importance Truncated No-Core Shell Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roth, R; Navratil, P

    2007-05-22

    We propose an importance truncation scheme for the no-core shell model, which enables converged calculations for nuclei well beyond the p-shell. It is based on an a priori measure for the importance of individual basis states constructed by means of many-body perturbation theory. Only the physically relevant states of the no-core model space are considered, which leads to a dramatic reduction of the basis dimension. We analyze the validity and efficiency of this truncation scheme using different realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and compare to conventional no-core shell model calculations for {sup 4}He and {sup 16}O. Then, we present the first converged calculations for the ground state of {sup 40}Ca within no-core model spaces including up to 16{h_bar}{Omega}-excitations using realistic low-momentum interactions. The scheme is universal and can be easily applied to other quantum many-body problems.

  2. An integrated decision making model for the selection of sustainable forward and reverse logistic providers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Agarwal, Vernika; Darbari, Jyoti Dhingra

    2017-01-01

    Due to rising concerns for environmental sustainability, the Indian electronic industry faces immense pressure to incorporate effective sustainable practices into the supply chain (SC) planning. Consequently, manufacturing enterprises (ME) are exploring the option of re-examining their SC...... hierarchy process and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution. The integrated logistics network is modeled as a bi-objective mixed-integer programming problem with the objective of maximizing the profit of the manufacturer and maximizing the sustainable score of the selected...... improve the sustainable performance value of the SC network and secure reasonable profits. The managerial implications drawn from the result analysis provide a sustainable framework to the ME for enhancing its corporate image....

  3. Lipopolysaccharide from Burkholderia thailandensis E264 provides protection in a murine model of melioidosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngugi, Sarah A; Ventura, Valeria V; Qazi, Omar; Harding, Sarah V; Kitto, G Barrie; Estes, D Mark; Dell, Anne; Titball, Richard W; Atkins, Timothy P; Brown, Katherine A; Hitchen, Paul G; Prior, Joann L

    2010-11-03

    Burkholderia thailandensis is a less virulent close relative of Burkholderia pseudomallei, a CDC category B biothreat agent. We have previously shown that lipopolysaccharide (LPS) extracted from B. pseudomallei can provide protection against a lethal challenge of B. pseudomallei in a mouse model of melioidosis. Sugar analysis on LPS from B. thailandensis strain E264 confirmed that this polysaccharide has a similar structure to LPS from B. pseudomallei. Mice were immunised with LPS from B. thailandensis or B. pseudomallei and challenged with a lethal dose of B. pseudomallei strain K96243. Similar protection levels were observed when either LPS was used as the immunogen. This data suggests that B. thailandensis LPS has the potential to be used as part of a subunit based vaccine against pathogenic B. pseudomallei. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Collaborative Care: a Pilot Study of a Child Psychiatry Outpatient Consultation Model for Primary Care Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallucco, Elise M; Blackmore, Emma Robertson; Bejarano, Carolina M; Kozikowksi, Chelsea B; Cuffe, Steven; Landy, Robin; Glowinski, Anne

    2017-07-01

    A Child Psychiatry Consultation Model (CPCM) offering primary care providers (PCPs) expedited access to outpatient child psychiatric consultation regarding management in primary care would allow more children to access mental health services. Yet, little is known about outpatient CPCMs. This pilot study describes an outpatient CPCM for 22 PCPs in a large Northeast Florida county. PCPs referred 81 patients, of which 60 were appropriate for collaborative management and 49 were subsequently seen for outpatient psychiatric consultation. The most common psychiatric diagnoses following consultation were anxiety (57%), ADHD (53%), and depression (39%). Over half (57%) of the patients seen for consultation were discharged to their PCP with appropriate treatment recommendations, and only a small minority (10%) of patients required long-term care by a psychiatrist. This CPCM helped child psychiatrists collaborate with PCPs to deliver mental health services for youth. The CPCM should be considered for adaptation and dissemination.

  5. Some important results from the air pollution distribution model STACKS (1988-1992)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erbrink, J.J.

    1993-01-01

    Attention is paid to the results of the study on the distribution of air pollutants by high chimney-stacks of electric power plants. An important product of the study is the integrated distribution model STACKS (Short Term Air-pollutant Concentrations Kema modelling System). The improvements and the extensions of STACKS are described in relation to the National Model, which has been used to estimate the environmental effects of individual chimney-stacks. The National Model shows unacceptable variations for high pollutant sources. Based on the results of STACKS revision of the National model has been taken into consideration. By means of the revised National Model a more realistic estimation of the environmental effects of electric power plants can be carried out

  6. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  7. The fornix provides multiple biomarkers to characterize circuit disruption in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badea, Alexandra; Kane, Lauren; Anderson, Robert J; Qi, Yi; Foster, Mark; Cofer, Gary P; Medvitz, Neil; Buckley, Anne F; Badea, Andreas K; Wetsel, William C; Colton, Carol A

    2016-11-15

    Multivariate biomarkers are needed for detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD), understanding its etiology, and quantifying the effect of therapies. Mouse models provide opportunities to study characteristics of AD in well-controlled environments that can help facilitate development of early interventions. The CVN-AD mouse model replicates multiple AD hallmark pathologies, and we identified multivariate biomarkers characterizing a brain circuit disruption predictive of cognitive decline. In vivo and ex vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed that CVN-AD mice replicate the hippocampal atrophy (6%), characteristic of humans with AD, and also present changes in subcortical areas. The largest effect was in the fornix (23% smaller), which connects the septum, hippocampus, and hypothalamus. In characterizing the fornix with diffusion tensor imaging, fractional anisotropy was most sensitive (20% reduction), followed by radial (15%) and axial diffusivity (2%), in detecting pathological changes. These findings were strengthened by optical microscopy and ultrastructural analyses. Ultrastructual analysis provided estimates of axonal density, diameters, and myelination-through the g-ratio, defined as the ratio between the axonal diameter, and the diameter of the axon plus the myelin sheath. The fornix had reduced axonal density (47% fewer), axonal degeneration (13% larger axons), and abnormal myelination (1.5% smaller g-ratios). CD68 staining showed that white matter pathology could be secondary to neuronal degeneration, or due to direct microglial attack. In conclusion, these findings strengthen the hypothesis that the fornix plays a role in AD, and can be used as a disease biomarker and as a target for therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Solar radiation data for European cities follow the Extreme Value or Weibull distribution. ► Simulation model for the sizing of SAPV systems based on energy balance and stochastic analysis. ► Simulation of PV Generator-Loads-Battery Storage System performance for all months. ► Minimum peak power and battery capacity required for reliable SAPV sizing for various European cities. ► Peak power and battery capacity reduced by more than 30% for operation 95% success rate. -- Abstract: The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (P m ) and larger battery storage capacity (C L ). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed P m and C L for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum P m and C L depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to

  9. Immunization of stromal cell targeting fibroblast activation protein providing immunotherapy to breast cancer mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Mingyao; Wang, Wenju; Yan, Jun; Tan, Jing; Liao, Liwei; Shi, Jianlin; Wei, Chuanyu; Xie, Yanhua; Jin, Xingfang; Yang, Li; Jin, Qing; Zhu, Huirong; Tan, Weiwei; Yang, Fang; Hou, Zongliu

    2016-08-01

    Unlike heterogeneous tumor cells, cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAF) are genetically more stable which serve as a reliable target for tumor immunotherapy. Fibroblast activation protein (FAP) which is restrictively expressed in tumor cells and CAF in vivo and plays a prominent role in tumor initiation, progression, and metastasis can function as a tumor rejection antigen. In the current study, we have constructed artificial FAP(+) stromal cells which mimicked the FAP(+) CAF in vivo. We immunized a breast cancer mouse model with FAP(+) stromal cells to perform immunotherapy against FAP(+) cells in the tumor microenvironment. By forced expression of FAP, we have obtained FAP(+) stromal cells whose phenotype was CD11b(+)/CD34(+)/Sca-1(+)/FSP-1(+)/MHC class I(+). Interestingly, proliferation capacity of the fibroblasts was significantly enhanced by FAP. In the breast cancer-bearing mouse model, vaccination with FAP(+) stromal cells has significantly inhibited the growth of allograft tumor and reduced lung metastasis indeed. Depletion of T cell assays has suggested that both CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells were involved in the tumor cytotoxic immune response. Furthermore, tumor tissue from FAP-immunized mice revealed that targeting FAP(+) CAF has induced apoptosis and decreased collagen type I and CD31 expression in the tumor microenvironment. These results implicated that immunization with FAP(+) stromal cells led to the disruption of the tumor microenvironment. Our study may provide a novel strategy for immunotherapy of a broad range of cancer.

  10. OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

    2011-12-01

    The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

  11. A multi-objective location-inventory model for 3PL providers with sustainable considerations under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Daghigh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, logistics development is considered as an important aspect of any country’s development. Outsourcing logistics activities to third party logistics (3PL providers is a common way to achieve logistics development. On the other hand, globalization and increasing customers’ concern about the environmental impact of activities as well as the appearance of the issue of social responsibility have led companies employ sustainable supply chain management, which considers economic, environmental and social benefits, simultaneously. This paper proposes a multi-objective model to design logistics network for 3PL providers by considering sustainable objectives under uncertainty. Objective functions include minimizing the total cost, minimizing greenhouse gas emission and maximizing social responsibility subject to fair access to products, number of created job opportunities and local community development. It is worth mentioning that in the present paper the perishability of products is also considered. A numerical example is provided to solve and validate model using augmented Epsilon-Constraint method. The results show that three sustainable objectives were in conflict and as the one receives more desirable values, the others fall into more undesirable values. In addition, by increasing maximum perishable time periods and by considering lateral transshipment among facilities of a level one can improve sustainability indices of the problem, which indicates the necessity of such policy in improving network sustainability.

  12. Multinomial Response Models, for Modeling and Determining Important Factors in Different Contraceptive Methods in Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Haji Nejad

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Difference aspects of multinomial statistical modelings and its classifications has been studied so far. In these type of problems Y is the qualitative random variable with T possible states which are considered as classifications. The goal is prediction of Y based on a random Vector X ? IR^m. Many methods for analyzing these problems were considered. One of the modern and general method of classification is Classification and Regression Trees (CART. Another method is recursive partitioning techniques which has a strange relationship with nonparametric regression. Classical discriminant analysis is a standard method for analyzing these type of data. Flexible discriminant analysis method which is a combination of nonparametric regression and discriminant analysis and classification using spline that includes least square regression and additive cubic splines. Neural network is an advanced statistical method for analyzing these types of data. In this paper properties of multinomial logistics regression were investigated and this method was used for modeling effective factors in selecting contraceptive methods in Ghom province for married women age 15-49. The response variable has a tetranomial distibution. The levels of this variable are: nothing, pills, traditional and a collection of other contraceptive methods. A collection of significant independent variables were: place, age of women, education, history of pregnancy and family size. Menstruation age and age at marriage were not statistically significant.

  13. Modelling Water Uptake Provides a New Perspective on Grass and Tree Coexistence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G Mazzacavallo

    Full Text Available Root biomass distributions have long been used to infer patterns of resource uptake. These patterns are used to understand plant growth, plant coexistence and water budgets. Root biomass, however, may be a poor indicator of resource uptake because large roots typically do not absorb water, fine roots do not absorb water from dry soils and roots of different species can be difficult to differentiate. In a sub-tropical savanna, Kruger Park, South Africa, we used a hydrologic tracer experiment to describe the abundance of active grass and tree roots across the soil profile. We then used this tracer data to parameterize a water movement model (Hydrus 1D. The model accounted for water availability and estimated grass and tree water uptake by depth over a growing season. Most root biomass was found in shallow soils (0-20 cm and tracer data revealed that, within these shallow depths, half of active grass roots were in the top 12 cm while half of active tree roots were in the top 21 cm. However, because shallow soils provided roots with less water than deep soils (20-90 cm, the water movement model indicated that grass and tree water uptake was twice as deep as would be predicted from root biomass or tracer data alone: half of grass and tree water uptake occurred in the top 23 and 43 cm, respectively. Niche partitioning was also greater when estimated from water uptake rather than tracer uptake. Contrary to long-standing assumptions, shallow grass root distributions absorbed 32% less water than slightly deeper tree root distributions when grasses and trees were assumed to have equal water demands. Quantifying water uptake revealed deeper soil water uptake, greater niche partitioning and greater benefits of deep roots than would be estimated from root biomass or tracer uptake data alone.

  14. Studies and research concerning BNFP. Identification and simplified modeling of economically important radwaste variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebel, P.E.; Godfrey, W.L.; Henry, J.L.; Postles, R.L.

    1983-09-01

    An extensive computer model describing the mass balance and economic characteristics of radioactive waste disposal systems was exercised in a series of runs designed using linear statistical methods. The most economically important variables were identified, their behavior characterized, and a simplified computer model prepared which runs on desk-top minicomputers. This simplified model allows the investigation of the effects of the seven most significant variables in each of four waste areas: Liquid Waste Storage, Liquid Waste Solidification, General Process Trash Handling, and Hulls Handling. 8 references, 1 figure, 12 tables

  15. Towards a conceptual model of online peer feedback: What about the provider?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Popta, Esther; Kral, Marijke; Camp, Gino; Martens, Rob; Simons, P.R.

    2018-01-01

    This paper reviews studies of peer feedback from the novel perspective of the providers of that feedback. The possible learning benefits of providing peer feedback in online learning have not been extensively studied. The goal of this study was therefore to explore the process of providing online peer feedback as a learning activity for the provider. We concluded that (1) providing online peer feedback has several potential learning benefits for the provider; (2) when providing online peer fe...

  16. Capturing optically important constituents and properties in a marine biogeochemical and ecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dutkiewicz

    2015-07-01

    This new model that captures bio-optical feedbacks will be important for improving our understanding of the role of light and optical constituents on ocean biogeochemistry, especially in a changing environment. Further, resolving surface upwelling irradiance will make it easier to connect to satellite-derived products in the future.

  17. Freedom of Expression: Importing European & US Constitutional Models in Transitional Democracies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belavusau, U.

    2013-01-01

    This book considers the issue of free speech in transitional democracies focusing on the socio-legal developments in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. In showing how these Central and Eastern European countries have engaged with free speech models imported from the Council of Europe / EU and

  18. Water quality modeling based on landscape analysis: Importance of riparian hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Grabs

    2010-01-01

    Several studies in high-latitude catchments have demonstrated the importance of near-stream riparian zones as hydrogeochemical hotspots with a substantial influence on stream chemistry. An adequate representation of the spatial variability of riparian-zone processes and characteristics is the key for modeling spatiotemporal variations of stream-water quality. This...

  19. Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Scharth, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a general likelihood evaluation method for nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models using the simulation-based method of efficient importance sampling. We minimize the simulation effort by replacing some key steps of the likelihood estimation procedure by numerical integration. We refer

  20. Salmonids, stream temperatures, and solar loading--modeling the shade provided to the Klamath River by vegetation and geomorphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forney, William M.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Chickadel, C. Christopher

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is studying approaches to characterize the thermal regulation of water and the dynamics of cold water refugia. High temperatures have physiological impacts on anadromous fish species. Factors affecting the presence, variability, and quality of thermal refugia are known, such as riverine and watershed processes, hyporheic flows, deep pools and bathymetric factors, thermal stratification of reservoirs, and other broader climatic considerations. This research develops a conceptual model and methodological techniques to quantify the change in solar insolation load to the Klamath River caused by riparian and floodplain vegetation, the morphology of the river, and the orientation and topographic characteristics of its watersheds. Using multiple scales of input data from digital elevation models and airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derivatives, different analysis methods yielded three different model results. These models are correlated with thermal infrared imagery for ground-truth information at the focal confluence with the Scott River. Results from nonparametric correlation tests, geostatistical cross-covariograms, and cross-correlograms indicate that statistical relationships between the insolation models and the thermal infrared imagery exist and are significant. Furthermore, the use of geostatistics provides insights to the spatial structure of the relationships that would not be apparent otherwise. To incorporate a more complete representation of the temperature dynamics in the river system, other variables including the factors mentioned above, and their influence on solar loading, are discussed. With similar datasets, these methods could be applied to any river in the United States—especially those listed as temperature impaired under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act—or international riverine systems. Considering the importance of thermal refugia for aquatic species, these methods can help investigate opportunities

  1. Importance and variability in processes relevant to environmental tritium ingestion dose models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.; Barry, P.

    1997-01-01

    The Aiken List was devised in 1990 to help decide which transport processes should be investigated experimentally so as to derive the greatest improvement in performance of environmental tritium assessment models. Each process was rated high, medium and low on each of two criteria. These were ''Importance'', which rated processes by how much each contributed to ingestion doses, and ''State of Modelling'', which rated the adequacy of the knowledge base on which models were built. Ratings, though unanimous, were, nevertheless, qualitative and subjective opinions. This paper describes how we have tried to quantify the ratings. To do this, we use, as measures of ''Importance'', sensitivities of predicted ingestion doses to changes in values of parameters in mathematical descriptions of individual processes. Measures of ''ModellinStatus'' were taken from a recently completed BIOMOVS study of HTO transport model performance and based either on by how much predicted transport by individual processes differed amongst participating modellers or by the variety of different ways that modellers chose to describe individual processes. The tritium transport model UFOTRI was used, and because environmental transport of HTO varies according to the weather at and after release time, sensitivities were measured in a sample of all conditions likely to arise in central Europe. (Author)

  2. Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, F. Gerard; Shachmurove, Yochanan

    2008-01-01

    The Chinese economy is in a stage of energy transition: from low efficiency solid fuels to oil, gas, and electric power, from agriculture to urbanization and industrialization, from heavy industry to lighter and high tech industry, from low motorization to rapid growth of the motor vehicle population. Experts fear that continued rapid economic growth in China will translate into a massive need to expand imports of oil, coal, and gas. We build an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy based on the energy balance. We use that model to forecast Chinese energy consumption and imports to 2020. The study suggests that China will, indeed, require rapidly growing imports of oil, coal, and gas. This growth is not so sensitive to the rate of economic growth as to increases in motorization. It can be offset, but probably only in small part, by increasing domestic energy production or by improvements in the efficiency of use, particularly in the production of electric power. (author)

  3. Using Model-Based Systems Engineering To Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-Cycle and Technical Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Edith L.; Weiland, Karen J.

    2017-01-01

    The ability of systems engineers to use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to generate self-consistent, up-to-date systems engineering products for project life-cycle and technical reviews is an important aspect for the continued and accelerated acceptance of MBSE. Currently, many review products are generated using labor-intensive, error-prone approaches based on documents, spreadsheets, and chart sets; a promised benefit of MBSE is that users will experience reductions in inconsistencies and errors. This work examines features of SysML that can be used to generate systems engineering products. Model elements, relationships, tables, and diagrams are identified for a large number of the typical systems engineering artifacts. A SysML system model can contain and generate most systems engineering products to a significant extent and this paper provides a guide on how to use MBSE to generate products for project life-cycle and technical reviews. The use of MBSE can reduce the schedule impact usually experienced for review preparation, as in many cases the review products can be auto-generated directly from the system model. These approaches are useful to systems engineers, project managers, review board members, and other key project stakeholders.

  4. Rate heterogeneity across Squamata, misleading ancestral state reconstruction and the importance of proper null model specification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, S; Reeder, T W

    2017-02-01

    The binary-state speciation and extinction (BiSSE) model has been used in many instances to identify state-dependent diversification and reconstruct ancestral states. However, recent studies have shown that the standard procedure of comparing the fit of the BiSSE model to constant-rate birth-death models often inappropriately favours the BiSSE model when diversification rates vary in a state-independent fashion. The newly developed HiSSE model enables researchers to identify state-dependent diversification rates while accounting for state-independent diversification at the same time. The HiSSE model also allows researchers to test state-dependent models against appropriate state-independent null models that have the same number of parameters as the state-dependent models being tested. We reanalyse two data sets that originally used BiSSE to reconstruct ancestral states within squamate reptiles and reached surprising conclusions regarding the evolution of toepads within Gekkota and viviparity across Squamata. We used this new method to demonstrate that there are many shifts in diversification rates across squamates. We then fit various HiSSE submodels and null models to the state and phylogenetic data and reconstructed states under these models. We found that there is no single, consistent signal for state-dependent diversification associated with toepads in gekkotans or viviparity across all squamates. Our reconstructions show limited support for the recently proposed hypotheses that toepads evolved multiple times independently in Gekkota and that transitions from viviparity to oviparity are common in Squamata. Our results highlight the importance of considering an adequate pool of models and null models when estimating diversification rate parameters and reconstructing ancestral states. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  5. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makurat, Jan; Pillai, Aarati; Wieringa, Frank T; Chamnan, Chhoun; Krawinkel, Michael B

    2017-07-21

    The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs) or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC), iron, vitamin A (VitA), folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12). On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA). The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA), VitA (66% RDA), and folate (44% RDA), but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA) and iron (20% RDA). Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  6. Estimated Nutritive Value of Low-Price Model Lunch Sets Provided to Garment Workers in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Makurat

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The establishment of staff canteens is expected to improve the nutritional situation of Cambodian garment workers. The objective of this study is to assess the nutritive value of low-price model lunch sets provided at a garment factory in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Methods: Exemplary lunch sets were served to female workers through a temporary canteen at a garment factory in Phnom Penh. Dish samples were collected repeatedly to examine mean serving sizes of individual ingredients. Food composition tables and NutriSurvey software were used to assess mean amounts and contributions to recommended dietary allowances (RDAs or adequate intake of energy, macronutrients, dietary fiber, vitamin C (VitC, iron, vitamin A (VitA, folate and vitamin B12 (VitB12. Results: On average, lunch sets provided roughly one third of RDA or adequate intake of energy, carbohydrates, fat and dietary fiber. Contribution to RDA of protein was high (46% RDA. The sets contained a high mean share of VitC (159% RDA, VitA (66% RDA, and folate (44% RDA, but were low in VitB12 (29% RDA and iron (20% RDA. Conclusions: Overall, lunches satisfied recommendations of caloric content and macronutrient composition. Sets on average contained a beneficial amount of VitC, VitA and folate. Adjustments are needed for a higher iron content. Alternative iron-rich foods are expected to be better suited, compared to increasing portions of costly meat/fish components. Lunch provision at Cambodian garment factories holds the potential to improve food security of workers, approximately at costs of <1 USD/person/day at large scale. Data on quantitative total dietary intake as well as physical activity among workers are needed to further optimize the concept of staff canteens.

  7. IntPath--an integrated pathway gene relationship database for model organisms and important pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hufeng; Jin, Jingjing; Zhang, Haojun; Yi, Bo; Wozniak, Michal; Wong, Limsoon

    2012-01-01

    relationship errors in KEGG). We turn complicated and incompatible xml data formats and inconsistent gene and gene relationship representations from different source databases into normalized and unified pathway-gene and pathway-gene pair relationships neatly recorded in simple tab-delimited text format and MySQL tables, which facilitates convenient automatic computation and large-scale referencing in many related studies. IntPath data can be downloaded in text format or MySQL dump. IntPath data can also be retrieved and analyzed conveniently through web service by local programs or through web interface by mouse clicks. Several useful analysis tools are also provided in IntPath. We have overcome in IntPath the issues of compatibility, consistency, and comprehensiveness that often hamper effective use of pathway databases. We have included four organisms in the current release of IntPath. Our methodology and programs described in this work can be easily applied to other organisms; and we will include more model organisms and important pathogens in future releases of IntPath. IntPath maintains regular updates and is freely available at http://compbio.ddns.comp.nus.edu.sg:8080/IntPath.

  8. The Importance of Older Family Members in Providing Social Resources and Promoting Cancer Screening in Families with a Hereditary Cancer Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashida, Sato; Hadley, Donald W.; Goergen, Andrea F.; Skapinsky, Kaley F.; Devlin, Hillary C.; Koehly, Laura M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study evaluates the role of older family members as providers of social resources within familial network systems affected by an inherited cancer susceptibility syndrome. Design and Methods: Respondents who previously participated in a study that involved genetic counseling and testing for Lynch syndrome and their family network…

  9. An integrated Biophysical CGE model to provide Sustainable Development Goal insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Marko; Cicowiez, Martin; Howells, Mark; Zepeda, Eduardo

    2016-04-01

    Future projected changes in the energy system will inevitably result in changes to the level of appropriation of environmental resources, particularly land and water, and this will have wider implications for environmental sustainability, and may affect other sectors of the economy. An integrated climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) system will provide useful insights, particularly with regard to the environmental sustainability. However, it will require adequate integration with other tools to detect economic impacts and broaden the scope for policy analysis. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a well suited tool to channel impacts, as detected in a CLEW analysis, onto all sectors of the economy, and evaluate trade-offs and synergies, including those of possible policy responses. This paper will show an application of such integration in a single-country CGE model with the following key characteristics. Climate is partly exogenous (as proxied by temperature and rainfall) and partly endogenous (as proxied by emissions generated by different sectors) and has an impact on endogenous variables such as land productivity and labor productivity. Land is a factor of production used in agricultural and forestry activities which can be of various types if land use alternatives (e.g., deforestation) are to be considered. Energy is an input to the production process of all economic sectors and a consumption good for households. Because it is possible to allow for substitution among different energy sources (e.g. renewable vs non-renewable) in the generation of electricity, the production process of energy products can consider the use of natural resources such as oil and water. Water, data permitting, can be considered as an input into the production process of agricultural sectors, which is particularly relevant in case of irrigation. It can also be considered as a determinant of total factor productivity in hydro-power generation. The integration of a CLEW

  10. Could implantable cardioverter defibrillators provide a human model supporting the learned helplessness theory of depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, M; Hess, B

    1999-01-01

    Affective symptoms were examined retrospectively in 25 patients following placement of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) which can produce intermittent shocks without warning in response to cardiac ventricular arrhythmias. The number of ICD random, uncontrollable discharge shocks and pre-ICD history of psychological distress (i.e., depression and/or anxiety) were documented in all patients using a demographics questionnaire and a standardized behavioral/psychological symptoms questionnaire (i.e., Symptom Checklist-90 Revised). ICD patients were dichotomized into two groups: those without a history of psychological distress prior to ICD (n = 18) and those with a history of psychological distress prior to ICD (n = 7). In ICD patients without a prior history, results indicated that quantity of ICD discharge shocks was significantly predictive of current reported depression (r = 0.45, p = 0.03) and current reported anxiety (r = 0.51, p = 0.02). Conversely, in patients with a reported history of psychological distress, there was no significant relationship found between quantity of discharge shocks and current reported depression or anxiety. This study may provide evidence in support of a human model of learned helplessness in that it supports the notion that exposure to an unavoidable and inescapable aversive stimulus was found to be related to patients' reported depression. Further studies may wish to prospectively consider a larger sample as well as a more comprehensive assessment of premorbid psychological symptoms.

  11. Model for a reproducible curriculum infrastructure to provide international nurse anesthesia continuing education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Shawn Bryant

    2011-12-01

    There are no set standards for nurse anesthesia education in developing countries, yet one of the keys to the standards in global professional practice is competency assurance for individuals. Nurse anesthetists in developing countries have difficulty obtaining educational materials. These difficulties include, but are not limited to, financial constraints, lack of anesthesia textbooks, and distance from educational sites. There is increasing evidence that the application of knowledge in developing countries is failing. One reason is that many anesthetists in developing countries are trained for considerably less than acceptable time periods and are often supervised by poorly trained practitioners, who then pass on less-than-desirable practice skills, thus exacerbating difficulties. Sustainability of development can come only through anesthetists who are both well trained and able to pass on their training to others. The international nurse anesthesia continuing education project was developed in response to the difficulty that nurse anesthetists in developing countries face in accessing continuing education. The purpose of this project was to develop a nonprofit, volunteer-based model for providing nurse anesthesia continuing education that can be reproduced and used in any developing country.

  12. Providing high-quality measurement data in analytical system of air pollution monitoring and their key importance for smart cities residents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Czechowski Piotr O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents selected, main elements of an air pollution automatic monitoring system with analytical subsystems concept in smart cities based on examples from Poland, implemented system in Pomerania, the concept of new system in Warsaw city and pilot research in Nowy Sącz city. All systems are the result of teamwork, ranging from design, development of new methodology and software to implementation in real-time air pollutants smart cities monitoring systems. Focused on the most neuralgic elements: data quality subsystems, new ideas of smart mobility measurement stations and their ability to use in future research and models. Special attention was paid to stochastic models and statistic methodology proposed and used in data diagnostics as analytical system engineering.

  13. What is important to get right when modelling the Greenland ice sheet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Boberg, Fredrik; Fausto, Robert; Vandecrux, Baptiste; Box, Jason; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    2017-04-01

    Ice sheet and glacier models need accurate surface mass balance inputs to accurately reproduce ice sheet extent and likely evolution. In recent years a number of different regional climate models (RCMs) have produced subtly different estimates of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) for the Greenland ice sheet. While the total ice sheet SMB number is often similar from these, there can be substantial differences spatially and in terms of the components of surface mass balance: precipitation, melt, runoff, retention and sublimation. The substantial increase in the amount of observational data available from Greenland allows us to compare not only models and data but also to optimize models to get the best SMB estimates. Using carefully designed sensitivity experiments we explore the importance of albedo, retention and refreezing parameters choices, precipitation, model resolution and topography in HIRHAM5, a typical RCM run at 5km resolution over Greenland, to create the best possible representations of surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Our analysis shows that the 5km resolution of HIRHAM more accurately captures precipitation over the ice sheet, compared with the old 25km resolution. Compared with 68 ice cores from the accumulation area the simulated mean annual net accumulation bias is -5% (correlation coefficient of 0.90). The retention scheme of the model is able to reproduce the subsurface temperature structure and occurrence of perennial firn aquifers and perched ice layers. However, small differences in parameter choices, while important locally, are not significant over the whole ice sheet. Modelled SMB compares favourably with 1041 PROMICE observations. Varying parameter choices means that a regression slope of 0.95-0.97 can be obtained (depending on model configuration) with a correlation coefficient of 0.75-0.86 and mean bias -3%. Our experiments clearly show that albedo choices are more important to modelled SMB than retention parameters

  14. The influence of socioeconomic status on women's preferences for modern contraceptive providers in Nigeria: a multilevel choice modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aremu O

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Olatunde Aremu School of Health, Sport, and Bioscience, Health Studies Field, University of East London, London, United Kingdom Background: Contraceptives are one of the most cost effective public health interventions. An understanding of the factors influencing users' preferences for contraceptives sources, in addition to their preferred methods of contraception, is an important factor in increasing contraceptive uptake. This study investigates the effect of women’s contextual and individual socioeconomic positions on their preference for contraceptive sources among current users in Nigeria. Methods: A multilevel modeling analysis was conducted using the most recent 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys data of women aged between 15 and 49 years old. The analysis included 1,834 ever married women from 888 communities across the 36 states of the federation, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. Three outcome variables, private, public, and informal provisions of contraceptive sources, were considered in the modeling. Results: There was variability in women's preferences for providers across communities. The result shows that change in variance accounted for about 31% and 19% in the odds of women's preferences for both private and public providers across communities. Younger age and being from the richest households are strongly associated with preference for both private and public providers. Living in rural areas and economically deprived neighborhoods were the community level determinants of women's preferences. Conclusion: This study documents the independent association of contextual socioeconomic characteristics and individual level socioeconomic factors with women's preferences for contraceptive commodity providers in Nigeria. Initiatives that seek to improve modern contraceptive uptake should jointly consider users’ preferences for sources of these commodities in addition to their preference for contraceptive type

  15. From Genes to Ecosystems in Microbiology: Modeling Approaches and the Importance of Individuality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan-Ulrich Kreft

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Models are important tools in microbial ecology. They can be used to advance understanding by helping to interpret observations and test hypotheses, and to predict the effects of ecosystem management actions or a different climate. Over the past decades, biological knowledge and ecosystem observations have advanced to the molecular and in particular gene level. However, microbial ecology models have changed less and a current challenge is to make them utilize the knowledge and observations at the genetic level. We review published models that explicitly consider genes and make predictions at the population or ecosystem level. The models can be grouped into three general approaches, i.e., metabolic flux, gene-centric and agent-based. We describe and contrast these approaches by applying them to a hypothetical ecosystem and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. An important distinguishing feature is how variation between individual cells (individuality is handled. In microbial ecosystems, individual heterogeneity is generated by a number of mechanisms including stochastic interactions of molecules (e.g., gene expression, stochastic and deterministic cell division asymmetry, small-scale environmental heterogeneity, and differential transport in a heterogeneous environment. This heterogeneity can then be amplified and transferred to other cell properties by several mechanisms, including nutrient uptake, metabolism and growth, cell cycle asynchronicity and the effects of age and damage. For example, stochastic gene expression may lead to heterogeneity in nutrient uptake enzyme levels, which in turn results in heterogeneity in intracellular nutrient levels. Individuality can have important ecological consequences, including division of labor, bet hedging, aging and sub-optimality. Understanding the importance of individuality and the mechanism(s underlying it for the specific microbial system and question investigated is essential for selecting the

  16. General extrapolation model for an important chemical dose-rate effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

    1984-12-01

    In order to extrapolate material accelerated aging data, methodologies must be developed based on sufficient understanding of the processes leading to material degradation. One of the most important mechanisms leading to chemical dose-rate effects in polymers involves the breakdown of intermediate hydroperoxide species. A general model for this mechanism is derived based on the underlying chemical steps. The results lead to a general formalism for understanding dose rate and sequential aging effects when hydroperoxide breakdown is important. We apply the model to combined radiation/temperature aging data for a PVC material and show that this data is consistent with the model and that model extrapolations are in excellent agreement with 12-year real-time aging results from an actual nuclear plant. This model and other techniques discussed in this report can aid in the selection of appropriate accelerated aging methods and can also be used to compare and select materials for use in safety-related components. This will result in increased assurance that equipment qualification procedures are adequate

  17. The important role for nurses in supporting the Asian Hindu patient and family at end of life: providing culturally sensitive end-of-life care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anuradha; Freeman, Michelle

    2011-01-01

    As cultural ecology of Canada evolves with daily arrival of new immigrants, Canadians welcome them and feel very proud of preserving their multicultural heritage. As minority groups, especially South Asian Hindus, continue to grow, there is a need to understand their cultural perspectives and accommodate their cultural preferences for end-of-life care. This article addresses end-of-life care from a point of view of Hindu culture and religion and provides a brief overview of their beliefs and rituals related to it. This article also guides nurses to understand diverse Hindu cultural practices and beliefs to help support their patients and families at this difficult time of life.

  18. Editorial to: Baseline MDCT findings after prosthetic heart valve implantation provide important complementary information to echocardiography for follow-up purposes by Sucha et al

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeters, F.E.C.M.; Kietselaer, B.L.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years a growing number of prosthetic heart valve (PHV) implantation procedures have been performed in sequence with the aging of the population and improving surgical techniques. Currently, echocardiography is the most important tool in the follow-up and evaluation of complications associated with the PHV (pannus, thrombus, endocarditis). However, echocardiographic examination of PHV associated disease may be hampered by poor acoustic window or scatter artefacts caused by the PHV. PHV related disease such as endocarditis is related with a poor prognosis, especially when complications such as periannular abscess formation occurs. Early treatment of PHV associated disease improves prognosis. Therefore, an unmet clinical need for early detection of complications exists. In the evaluation of PHV (dys)function, multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) has shown to be of additive value. A necessity for MDCT to be implemented in daily practice is to be able to distinguish between normal and pathological features. (orig.)

  19. Editorial to: Baseline MDCT findings after prosthetic heart valve implantation provide important complementary information to echocardiography for follow-up purposes by Sucha et al

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peeters, F.E.C.M. [Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Kietselaer, B.L.J.H. [Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Maastricht (Netherlands); Maastricht University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2016-04-15

    Over the last years a growing number of prosthetic heart valve (PHV) implantation procedures have been performed in sequence with the aging of the population and improving surgical techniques. Currently, echocardiography is the most important tool in the follow-up and evaluation of complications associated with the PHV (pannus, thrombus, endocarditis). However, echocardiographic examination of PHV associated disease may be hampered by poor acoustic window or scatter artefacts caused by the PHV. PHV related disease such as endocarditis is related with a poor prognosis, especially when complications such as periannular abscess formation occurs. Early treatment of PHV associated disease improves prognosis. Therefore, an unmet clinical need for early detection of complications exists. In the evaluation of PHV (dys)function, multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) has shown to be of additive value. A necessity for MDCT to be implemented in daily practice is to be able to distinguish between normal and pathological features. (orig.)

  20. Spdef null mice lack conjunctival goblet cells and provide a model of dry eye.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, Christina K; Menon, Balaraj B; Chen, Gang; Whitsett, Jeffrey A; Clevers, Hans; Gipson, Ilene K

    2013-07-01

    Goblet cell numbers decrease within the conjunctival epithelium in drying and cicatrizing ocular surface diseases. Factors regulating goblet cell differentiation in conjunctival epithelium are unknown. Recent data indicate that the transcription factor SAM-pointed domain epithelial-specific transcription factor (Spdef) is essential for goblet cell differentiation in tracheobronchial and gastrointestinal epithelium of mice. Using Spdef(-/-) mice, we determined that Spdef is required for conjunctival goblet cell differentiation and that Spdef(-/-) mice, which lack conjunctival goblet cells, have significantly increased corneal surface fluorescein staining and tear volume, a phenotype consistent with dry eye. Microarray analysis of conjunctival epithelium in Spdef(-/-) mice revealed down-regulation of goblet cell-specific genes (Muc5ac, Tff1, Gcnt3). Up-regulated genes included epithelial cell differentiation/keratinization genes (Sprr2h, Tgm1) and proinflammatory genes (Il1-α, Il-1β, Tnf-α), all of which are up-regulated in dry eye. Interestingly, four Wnt pathway genes were down-regulated. SPDEF expression was significantly decreased in the conjunctival epithelium of Sjögren syndrome patients with dry eye and decreased goblet cell mucin expression. These data demonstrate that Spdef is required for conjunctival goblet cell differentiation and down-regulation of SPDEF may play a role in human dry eye with goblet cell loss. Spdef(-/-) mice have an ocular surface phenotype similar to that in moderate dry eye, providing a new, more convenient model for the disease. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Investigative Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The EZ diffusion model provides a powerful test of simple empirical effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Donkin, Chris; Vandekerckhove, Joachim

    Over the last four decades, sequential accumulation models for choice response times have spread through cognitive psychology like wildfire. The most popular style of accumulator model is the diffusion model (Ratcliff Psychological Review, 85, 59–108, 1978), which has been shown to account for data

  2. On the Importance of Displacement History in Soft-Body Contact Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-10

    from contact mechanics, from physically measurable properties for the materials of the contacting bodies, such as Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio...friction angle for uniform quartz spheres cannot be expected to be the same as that of quartz spheres (or well-rounded quartz sand) with a log-normal par...On the Importance of Displacement History in Soft-Body Contact Models Jonathan Fleischmann∗, Radu Serban, Dan Negrut Simulation Based Engineering

  3. Towards a conceptual model of online peer feedback: What about the provider?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Popta, Esther; Kral, Marijke; Camp, Gino; Martens, Rob; Simons, P.R.

    2018-01-01

    This paper reviews studies of peer feedback from the novel perspective of the providers of that feedback. The possible learning benefits of providing peer feedback in online learning have not been extensively studied. The goal of this study was therefore to explore the process of providing online

  4. A model for assessing the degree of importance of ergonomics criteria to human machine interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Cesar Ribeiro de; Domech More, Jesus; Silva, Aretha Felix Thomaz da

    2007-01-01

    This paper intends to show a model to help us to incorporate ergonomics criteria into the usability of the human computer interface (HCI). The techniques based on fuzzy set theory are appropriate tools for the treatment of subjective and vague concepts that are inherent to usability for the HCI. The application consists of analysis concepts. This approach allows the use of natural language expressions of importance in ergonomics criteria estimation. The above-mentioned model shows the degree of importance of the ergonomics criteria present in the software interface used in the medical area. In this work, as entry data, the system developer opinions are used and as a result we had the hierarchy of 18 ergonomic criteria. The ergonomic criteria are those already validated by the market, which are linked to the ErgoList checklists. The fuzzy model created will allow knowing the most important criteria to health governmental companies. Its Information Technology (IT) professionals will concentrate efforts when treating the usability of the software interface and its systems. (author)

  5. Aromatase inhibitor associated arthralgia: the importance of oncology provider-patient communication about side effects and potential management through physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyrop, Kirsten A; Callahan, Leigh F; Rini, Christine; Altpeter, Mary; Hackney, Betsy; DePue, Amy; Wilson, Anne; Schechter, Arielle; Muss, Hyman B

    2016-06-01

    Breast cancer survivors on aromatase inhibitors (AI) often experience side effects of joint pain, stiffness, or achiness (arthralgia). This study presents findings from a qualitative study of survivors on an AI regarding their knowledge of potential joint pain side effects and how both AI side effects and their management through moderate physical activity could be discussed during routine visits with their oncology provider. Qualitative data from semi-structured interviews were content analyzed for emergent themes. Descriptive statistics summarize sample characteristics. Our sample included 36 survivors, mean age of 67 (range 46-87); 86 % Caucasian and 70 % had education beyond high school. AI experience are as follows: 64 % anastrozole/Arimidex, 48 % letrozole/Femara, and 31 % exemestane/Aromasin. Participants expressed interest in having more information about potential joint pain side effects when the AI was prescribed so they could understand their joint symptoms when they appeared or intensified. They were relieved to learn that their joint symptoms were not unusual or "in their head." Participants would have been especially motivated to try walking as a way to manage their joint pain if physical activity had been recommended by their oncologist. Breast cancer survivors who are prescribed an AI as part of their adjuvant treatment want ongoing communication with their oncology provider about the potential for joint pain side effects and how these symptoms may be managed through regular physical activity. The prescription of an AI presents a "teachable moment" for oncologists to recommend and encourage their patients to engage in regular physical activity.

  6. The importance of correct specification of tribological parameters in dynamical systems modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaci, S.; Ciornei, F. C.; Romanu, I. C.; Ciornei, M. C.

    2018-01-01

    When modelling the behaviour of dynamical systems, the friction phenomenon cannot be neglected. Dry and fluid friction may occur, but dry friction has more severe effects upon the behaviour of the systems, based on the fact that the introduced discontinuities are more important. In the modelling of dynamical systems, dry friction is the main cause of occurrence of the bifurcation phenomenon. These aspects become more complex if, in the case of dry friction, static and dynamic frictions are put forward. The behaviour of a simple dynamical system is studied, consisting in a prismatic body linked to the ground by a spring, placed on a conveyor belt. The theoretical model is described by a nonlinear differential equation which after numerical integration leads to the conclusion that the steady motion of the prism is an un-damped oscillatory motion. The system was qualitatively modelled using specialised software for dynamical analysis. It was impractical to obtain a steady uniform translational motion of a rigid, therefore the conveyor belt was replaced by a metallic disc in uniform rotation motion. The attempts to compare the CAD model to the theoretical model were unsuccessful because the efforts of selecting the tribological parameters directed to the conclusion that the motion of the prism is a damped oscillation. To decide which of the methods depicts reality, a test-rig was assembled and it indicated a sustained oscillation. The conclusion is that the model employed by the dynamical analysis software cannot describe the actual model and a more complex model is required in the description of the friction phenomenon.

  7. Modelling of Limestone Dissolution in Wet FGD Systems: The Importance of an Accurate Particle Size Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiil, Søren; Johnsson, Jan Erik; Dam-Johansen, Kim

    1999-01-01

    Danish limestone types with very different particle size distributions (PSDs). All limestones were of a high purity. Model predictions were found to be qualitatively in good agreement with experimental data without any use of adjustable parameters. Deviations between measurements and simulations were...... attributed primarily to the PSD measurements of the limestone particles, which were used as model inputs. The PSDs, measured using a laser diffrac-tion-based Malvern analyser, were probably not representative of the limestone samples because agglomeration phenomena took place when the particles were......In wet flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) plants, the most common sorbent is limestone. Over the past 25 years, many attempts to model the transient dissolution of limestone particles in aqueous solutions have been performed, due to the importance for the development of reliable FGD simu-lation tools...

  8. Importance of facial physical attractiveness of audiovisual models in descriptions and preferences of children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Cristina; Conde, Elena; Torres, Esteban

    2005-08-01

    We performed a cross-sectional study with three age groups (8, 14, and 17 years) to evaluate developmental differences in stereotyped beliefs about physical attractiveness and the value of this as perceived by the participants. Given the current importance of television in the development of social knowledge, television models were used. The children and adolescents were asked to evaluate, using bipolar open scales, the physical attractiveness, likeableness, generosity, intelligence, fun, and altruism of 12 television models of both sexes, previously selected by judges, as well as the desire to resemble or feel close to the models. Analysis showed developmental differences across age groups both in the concept of physical attractiveness and in stereotyped beliefs about this. As in other areas of social knowledge, the younger children's responses were bipolar, global, and much more stereotyped, while the adolescents introduced subtle distinctions and elaborated their responses. Nevertheless, physical attractiveness appeared a desirable characteristic for all age groups.

  9. Why Knowledge Modeling is Important for Business and for a Danish Terminology and Knowledge Bank

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdman Thomsen, Hanne; Madsen, Bodil Nistrup

    2011-01-01

    , and possibly other languages, so information must be freely retrievable and communicable in several languages. In this paper I will give examples of why knowledge modeling is important for businesses, and why knowledge modeling is a central part of the DanTermBank project, the aim of which is to lay......Businesses and organizations, including public authorities, have a growing need for organizing and handling large amounts of data. In order to manage complex knowledge, knowledge must be modeled and structured. One very powerful method used for structuring knowledge is the use of ontologies....... Businesses and organizations need efficient tools for building domain-specific ontologies and systems for managing knowledge. Most medium-sized and large Danish businesses and organizations operate in a bilingual or multilingual environment, where knowledge is transferred and stored in Danish and/or English...

  10. Capturing optically important constituents and properties in a marine biogeochemical and ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutkiewicz, S.; Hickman, A. E.; Jahn, O.; Gregg, W. W.; Mouw, C. B.; Follows, M. J.

    2015-07-01

    We present a numerical model of the ocean that couples a three-stream radiative transfer component with a marine biogeochemical-ecosystem component in a dynamic three-dimensional physical framework. The radiative transfer component resolves the penetration of spectral irradiance as it is absorbed and scattered within the water column. We explicitly include the effect of several optically important water constituents (different phytoplankton functional types; detrital particles; and coloured dissolved organic matter, CDOM). The model is evaluated against in situ-observed and satellite-derived products. In particular we compare to concurrently measured biogeochemical, ecosystem, and optical data along a meridional transect of the Atlantic Ocean. The simulation captures the patterns and magnitudes of these data, and estimates surface upwelling irradiance analogous to that observed by ocean colour satellite instruments. We find that incorporating the different optically important constituents explicitly and including spectral irradiance was crucial to capture the variability in the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll a (Chl a) maximum. We conduct a series of sensitivity experiments to demonstrate, globally, the relative importance of each of the water constituents, as well as the crucial feedbacks between the light field, the relative fitness of phytoplankton types, and the biogeochemistry of the ocean. CDOM has proportionally more importance at attenuating light at short wavelengths and in more productive waters, phytoplankton absorption is relatively more important at the subsurface Chl a maximum, and water molecules have the greatest contribution when concentrations of other constituents are low, such as in the oligotrophic gyres. Scattering had less effect on attenuation, but since it is important for the amount and type of upwelling irradiance, it is crucial for setting sea surface reflectance. Strikingly, sensitivity experiments in which absorption by any of the

  11. Providing Agility in C2 Environments Through Networked Information Processing: A Model of Expertise

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    individual being able to correctly identify the solution in various circumstances. A three-parameter logistic ( 3PL ) model is used, where the...difficulty. Based on this 3PL model, we choose to fit the parameters of the following expression for the probability of a correct response given...problem difficulty can predict accuracy of responses to specific questions • Three-parameter logistic ( 3PL ) model b – difficulty a

  12. Economic model of a cloud provider operating in a federated cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Goiri Presa, Íñigo; Guitart Fernández, Jordi; Torres Viñals, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Resource provisioning in Cloud providers is a challenge because of the high variability of load over time. On the one hand, the providers can serve most of the requests owning only a restricted amount of resources, but this forces to reject customers during peak hours. On the other hand, valley hours incur in under-utilization of the resources, which forces the providers to increase their prices to be profitable. Federation overcomes these limitations and allows pro...

  13. Consistently modeling the same movement strategy is more important than model skill level in observational learning contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, John J; Dean, Noah

    2014-02-01

    The experiment undertaken was designed to elucidate the impact of model skill level on observational learning processes. The task was bimanual circle tracing with a 90° relative phase lead of one hand over the other hand. Observer groups watched videos of either an instruction model, a discovery model, or a skilled model. The instruction and skilled model always performed the task with the same movement strategy, the right-arm traced clockwise and the left-arm counterclockwise around circle templates with the right-arm leading. The discovery model used several movement strategies (tracing-direction/hand-lead) during practice. Observation of the instruction and skilled model provided a significant benefit compared to the discovery model when performing the 90° relative phase pattern in a post-observation test. The observers of the discovery model had significant room for improvement and benefited from post-observation practice of the 90° pattern. The benefit of a model is found in the consistency with which that model uses the same movement strategy, and not within the skill level of the model. It is the consistency in strategy modeled that allows observers to develop an abstract perceptual representation of the task that can be implemented into a coordinated action. Theoretically, the results show that movement strategy information (relative motion direction, hand lead) and relative phase information can be detected through visual perception processes and be successfully mapped to outgoing motor commands within an observational learning context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The importance of object geometric properties for trajectory modeling of functional reach-to-grasp robotic therapy tasks - biomed 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan, Dominic; Jeutter, Dean C

    2009-01-01

    Reaching-to-grasp is essential for the performance of activities of daily living. Pathologies such as stroke, spinal cord injury, cerebral palsy, etc. limit individuals from being able to perform meaningful upper extremity movements, leading to a reduced quality of life. Robotic aided therapy is gaining prevalence as a rehabilitation tool because it can provide consistent and quantitative therapy. Such systems are dependent upon models to generate trajectories that dictate their movements. Time scaled polynomial techniques have been extensively used for robotic model development and trajectory generation. However, this approach is limited because it cannot support functional therapy tasks. This is largely due to the influence of cognitive complexity not completely considered with regards to the activity performed. We examine the influence of task cognitive complexity as manifested through the geometric properties of each object on the movement trajectories and kinematic dependent variables tasks through a motion analysis study using healthy subjects (N=8). We then compare the predicted results from several robotic trajectory models with the actual motion analysis data. Our results show that there are differences present, between the trajectory data and kinematic properties for each task, that are specific to the geometric properties of each object. In addition, the predicted results from the robotic trajectory models do not fully correlate with the actual movement information. This study is important as it will help provide some insight with regards to factors that need to be considered during the development of future robotic trajectory models and controllers for upper extremity functional rehabilitation tasks.

  15. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  16. Does the Assumption on Innovation Process Play an Important Role for Filtered Historical Simulation Model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emrah Altun

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the financial institutions compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR of their trading portfolios using historical simulation-based methods. In this paper, we examine the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS model introduced by Barone-Adesi et al. (1999 theoretically and empirically. The main goal of this study is to find an answer for the following question: “Does the assumption on innovation process play an important role for the Filtered Historical Simulation model?”. For this goal, we investigate the performance of FHS model with skewed and fat-tailed innovations distributions such as normal, skew normal, Student’s-t, skew-T, generalized error, and skewed generalized error distributions. The performances of FHS models are evaluated by means of unconditional and conditional likelihood ratio tests and loss functions. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that the FHS models with generalized error and skew-T distributions produce more accurate VaR forecasts.

  17. A Dynamical Model of Pitch Memory Provides an Improved Basis for Implied Harmony Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Chul

    2017-01-01

    Tonal melody can imply vertical harmony through a sequence of tones. Current methods for automatic chord estimation commonly use chroma-based features extracted from audio signals. However, the implied harmony of unaccompanied melodies can be difficult to estimate on the basis of chroma content in the presence of frequent nonchord tones. Here we present a novel approach to automatic chord estimation based on the human perception of pitch sequences. We use cohesion and inhibition between pitches in auditory short-term memory to differentiate chord tones and nonchord tones in tonal melodies. We model short-term pitch memory as a gradient frequency neural network, which is a biologically realistic model of auditory neural processing. The model is a dynamical system consisting of a network of tonotopically tuned nonlinear oscillators driven by audio signals. The oscillators interact with each other through nonlinear resonance and lateral inhibition, and the pattern of oscillatory traces emerging from the interactions is taken as a measure of pitch salience. We test the model with a collection of unaccompanied tonal melodies to evaluate it as a feature extractor for chord estimation. We show that chord tones are selectively enhanced in the response of the model, thereby increasing the accuracy of implied harmony estimation. We also find that, like other existing features for chord estimation, the performance of the model can be improved by using segmented input signals. We discuss possible ways to expand the present model into a full chord estimation system within the dynamical systems framework. PMID:28522983

  18. Hydrostratigraphic modeling of a complex, glacial-drift aquifer system for importation into MODFLOW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Beverly L; Larson, David R; Abert, Curtis C; Wilson, Steven D; Roadcap, George S

    2003-01-01

    Deposition from at least three episodes of glaciation left a complex glacial-drift aquifer system in central Illinois. The deepest and largest of these aquifers, the Sankoty-Mahomet Aquifer, occupies the lower part of a buried bedrock valley and supplies water to communities throughout central Illinois. Thin, discontinuous aquifers are present within glacial drift overlying the Sankoty-Mahomet Aquifer. This study was commissioned by local governments to identify possible areas where a regional water supply could be obtained from the aquifer with minimal adverse impacts on existing users. Geologic information from more than 2,200 existing water well logs was supplemented with new data from 28 test borings, water level measurements in 430 wells, and 35 km of surface geophysical profiles. A three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic model was developed using a contouring software package, a geographic information system (GIS), and the 3-D geologic modeling package, EarthVision. The hydrostratigraphy of the glacial-drift sequence was depicted as seven uneven and discontinuous layers, which could be viewed from an infinite number of horizontal and vertical slices and as solid models of any layer. Several iterations were required before the 3-D model presented a reasonable depiction of the aquifer system. Layers from the resultant hydrostratigraphic model were imported into MODFLOW, where they were modified into continuous layers. This approach of developing a 3-D hydrostratigraphic model can be applied to other areas where complex aquifer systems are to be modeled and is also useful in helping lay audiences visualize aquifer systems.

  19. A structural and stochastic optimal model for projections of LNG imports and exports in Asia-Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Kompas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asia-Pacific region, the largest and fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG market in the world, has been undergoing radical changes over the past few years. These changes include considerable additional supplies from North America and Australia, and a recent LNG price slump resulting from an oil-linked pricing mechanism and demand uncertainties. This paper develops an Asia-Pacific Gas Model (APGM, based on a structural, stochastic and optimising framework, providing a valuable tool for the projection of LNG trade in the Asia-Pacific region. With existing social-economic conditions, the model projects that Asia-Pacific LNG imports are expected to increase by 49.1 percent in 2020 and 95.7 percent in 2030, compared to 2013. Total LNG trade value is estimated to increase to US$127.2 billion in 2020 and US$199.0 billion in 2030. Future LNG trade expansion is mainly driven by emerging and large importers (i.e., China and India, and serviced, most importantly, by new supplies from Australia and the USA. The model's projected results are sensitive to changes in expected oil prices, pricing mechanisms, economic growth and energy policies, as well as unexpected geopolitical-economic events.

  20. A structural and stochastic optimal model for projections of LNG imports and exports in Asia-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kompas, Tom; Che, Tuong Nhu

    2016-06-01

    The Asia-Pacific region, the largest and fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in the world, has been undergoing radical changes over the past few years. These changes include considerable additional supplies from North America and Australia, and a recent LNG price slump resulting from an oil-linked pricing mechanism and demand uncertainties. This paper develops an Asia-Pacific Gas Model (APGM), based on a structural, stochastic and optimising framework, providing a valuable tool for the projection of LNG trade in the Asia-Pacific region. With existing social-economic conditions, the model projects that Asia-Pacific LNG imports are expected to increase by 49.1 percent in 2020 and 95.7 percent in 2030, compared to 2013. Total LNG trade value is estimated to increase to US$127.2 billion in 2020 and US$199.0 billion in 2030. Future LNG trade expansion is mainly driven by emerging and large importers (i.e., China and India), and serviced, most importantly, by new supplies from Australia and the USA. The model's projected results are sensitive to changes in expected oil prices, pricing mechanisms, economic growth and energy policies, as well as unexpected geopolitical-economic events.

  1. Implementation of Equilibrium-Price Model to the Estimation of Import Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadulla Hasanli

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the the import inflationary processes as a result of feedbacks of mutual economic relations of World countries. It is used Equilibrium Price Model to estimate the import inflationary processes in CIS countries. The study investigates the further results regarding the import inflationary processes in the CIS countries on the scenario of increasing the Value Added norm in Russia. As well as by standpoint of economic growth and price stability, the recent revaluation of US dollar in the World and its impacts to total output of other countries have been investigated in details. In other words due to revaluation of the US dollar, if the final product decreases in USA, this decreasing impact how to be transmitted to the world countries have been estimated by the Input-Output Table in this study as well. The work is fulfilled on the Input-Output data for the year 2011. This study assumes theoretical and practical importance in defining the monetary policy.

  2. 75 FR 2562 - Publication of Model Notices for Health Care Continuation Coverage Provided Pursuant to the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-15

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employee Benefits Security Administration Publication of Model Notices for... AGENCY: Employee Benefits Security Administration, Department of Labor. ACTION: Notice of the..., contact the Department's Employee Benefits Security Administration's Benefits Advisors at 1-866-444-3272...

  3. Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, H E Markus; Andersson, Helén C; Arheimer, Berit; Donnelly, Chantal; Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo G; Kotwicki, Lech; Neset, Tina-Simone; Niiranen, Susa; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Savchuk, Oleg P; Schenk, Frederik; Węsławski, Jan Marcin; Zorita, Eduardo

    2014-02-01

    We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

  4. Importance sampling for Lambda-coalescents in the infinitely many sites model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkner, Matthias; Blath, Jochen; Steinrücken, Matthias

    2011-06-01

    We present and discuss new importance sampling schemes for the approximate computation of the sample probability of observed genetic types in the infinitely many sites model from population genetics. More specifically, we extend the 'classical framework', where genealogies are assumed to be governed by Kingman's coalescent, to the more general class of Lambda-coalescents and develop further Hobolth et al.'s (2008) idea of deriving importance sampling schemes based on 'compressed genetrees'. The resulting schemes extend earlier work by Griffiths and Tavaré (1994), Stephens and Donnelly (2000), Birkner and Blath (2008) and Hobolth et al. (2008). We conclude with a performance comparison of classical and new schemes for Beta- and Kingman coalescents. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A description of model 3B of the multipurpose ventricular actuating system. [providing controlled driving pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, J. A., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    The multipurpose ventricular actuating system is a pneumatic signal generating device that provides controlled driving pressures for actuating pulsatile blood pumps. Overall system capabilities, the timing circuitry, and calibration instruction are included.

  6. Modelling Southern Africa Air Quality and Atmosphere: Importance and Interplay of Natural and Anthropogenic Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, R. M.; Naidoo, M.; Dedekind, Z.; Sibiya, B.; Piketh, S.; Engelbrecht, C. J.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2017-12-01

    Many parts of the southern hemisphere are linked in part due to the strong impact that emissions from natural sources, such as large biomass burning events and marine sources, as well as growing anthropogenic emission sources. Most of southern Africa has an arid to semi-arid climate that is strongly impacted by biomass burning, biogenic and dust emissions. In addition, there are areas of growing industrialization and urbanization that contributes to poor air quality. This air pollution can impact not only human health, but also agriculture, ecosystems, and the climate. This presentation will highlight on-going research to simulate the southern Africa atmosphere and impacts, with a focus on the interplay and relative importance of natural and anthropogenic emissions. The presentation will discuss the simulated sensitivity of the southern African climate to aerosol particles to highlight the importance of natural sources. These historical simulations (1979-2012) were performed with CCAM and are towards the development of the first Africa-led earth systems model. The analysis focused on the simulated sensitivity of the climate and clouds off the southwestern coast of Africa to aerosol particles. The interplay between natural and anthropogenic sources on air pollution will be highlighted using the Waterberg region of South Africa as a case study. CAMx was run at 2km resolution for 2013 using local emission inventories and meteorological output from CCAM to simulate the air quality of the region. These simulations estimate that, on average in the summer, up to 20% of ozone in and around a power plant plume is attributable to biogenic sources of VOCs, with ozone peaks of up to 120ppb; highlighting the importance of understanding the mix of pollutants in this area. In addition to presenting results from this study, the challenges in modelling will be highlighted. These challenges include very few or no measurements that are important to understand, and then accurately

  7. Understanding the relationship between Kano model's customer satisfaction scores and self-stated requirements importance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O C; Hashim, Nor Laily

    2016-01-01

    Customer satisfaction is the result of product quality and viability. The place of the perceived satisfaction of users/customers for a software product cannot be neglected especially in today competitive market environment as it drives the loyalty of customers and promotes high profitability and return on investment. Therefore understanding the importance of requirements as it is associated with the satisfaction of users/customers when their requirements are met is worth the pain considering. It is necessary to know the relationship between customer satisfactions when their requirements are met (or their dissatisfaction when their requirements are unmet) and the importance of such requirement. So many works have been carried out on customer satisfaction in connection with the importance of requirements but the relationship between customer satisfaction scores (coefficients) of the Kano model and users/customers self-stated requirements importance have not been sufficiently explored. In this study, an attempt is made to unravel the underlying relationship existing between Kano model's customer satisfaction indexes and users/customers self reported requirements importance. The results of the study indicate some interesting associations between these considered variables. These bivariate associations reveal that customer satisfaction index (SI), and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) and customer dissatisfaction index (DI) and average satisfaction coefficient (ASC) are highly correlated (r = 96 %) and thus ASC can be used in place of either SI or DI in representing customer satisfaction scores. Also, these Kano model's customer satisfaction variables (SI, DI, and ASC) are each associated with self-stated requirements importance (IMP). Further analysis indicates that the value customers or users place on requirements that are met or on features that are incorporated into a product influences the level of satisfaction such customers derive from the product. The

  8. Oxygen distribution in tumors: A qualitative analysis and modeling study providing a novel Monte Carlo approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagerlöf, Jakob H.; Kindblom, Jon; Bernhardt, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To construct a Monte Carlo (MC)-based simulation model for analyzing the dependence of tumor oxygen distribution on different variables related to tumor vasculature [blood velocity, vessel-to-vessel proximity (vessel proximity), and inflowing oxygen partial pressure (pO 2 )]. Methods: A voxel-based tissue model containing parallel capillaries with square cross-sections (sides of 10 μm) was constructed. Green's function was used for diffusion calculations and Michaelis-Menten's kinetics to manage oxygen consumption. The model was tuned to approximately reproduce the oxygenational status of a renal carcinoma; the depth oxygenation curves (DOC) were fitted with an analytical expression to facilitate rapid MC simulations of tumor oxygen distribution. DOCs were simulated with three variables at three settings each (blood velocity, vessel proximity, and inflowing pO 2 ), which resulted in 27 combinations of conditions. To create a model that simulated variable oxygen distributions, the oxygen tension at a specific point was randomly sampled with trilinear interpolation in the dataset from the first simulation. Six correlations between blood velocity, vessel proximity, and inflowing pO 2 were hypothesized. Variable models with correlated parameters were compared to each other and to a nonvariable, DOC-based model to evaluate the differences in simulated oxygen distributions and tumor radiosensitivities for different tumor sizes. Results: For tumors with radii ranging from 5 to 30 mm, the nonvariable DOC model tended to generate normal or log-normal oxygen distributions, with a cut-off at zero. The pO 2 distributions simulated with the six-variable DOC models were quite different from the distributions generated with the nonvariable DOC model; in the former case the variable models simulated oxygen distributions that were more similar to in vivo results found in the literature. For larger tumors, the oxygen distributions became truncated in the lower

  9. MODELING THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS: ASSESSMENT OF THE MACEDONIAN COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goce PETRESKI

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available So far Macedonia has undergone an unsuccessful attempt to transition,distinguished by low growth rates, high unemployment, extensive poverty,balance of payments unfavorable position, technological lag etc. The externalsector, as a core element to growth perspectives of a small open economy iscritically dependant upon the export competitiveness. Consequently, thispaper will address some critical points of the Macedonian economy,particularly the vulnerability of the external sector alongside with the priceand trade liberalization. The set of analyses is to be carried out to explore theforeign trade structure, current account developments, as well as the majoraspects of qualitative competitiveness. In addition, we have examined theimpact of macroeconomic variables on exports and imports within theselected timeframe. We have therefore applied a comprehensive approach ofdynamic modeling based upon a vector - autoregression model determinedto control for endogeneity and set to estimate the long - run equilibriumrelations, as well as the short-run dynamics of the key variables.

  10. The Importance of Business Model Factors for Cloud Computing Adoption: Role of Previous Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogataj Habjan Kristina

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Bringing several opportunities for more effective and efficient IT governance and service exploitation, cloud computing is expected to impact the European and global economies significantly. Market data show that despite many advantages and promised benefits the adoption of cloud computing is not as fast and widespread as foreseen. This situation shows the need for further exploration of the potentials of cloud computing and its implementation on the market. The purpose of this research was to identify individual business model factors with the highest impact on cloud computing adoption. In addition, the aim was to identify the differences in opinion regarding the importance of business model factors on cloud computing adoption according to companies’ previous experiences with cloud computing services.

  11. Differentiated Human SH-SY5Y Cells Provide a Reductionist Model of Herpes Simplex Virus 1 Neurotropism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipley, Mackenzie M; Mangold, Colleen A; Kuny, Chad V; Szpara, Moriah L

    2017-12-01

    Neuron-virus interactions that occur during herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection are not fully understood. Neurons are the site of lifelong latency and are a crucial target for long-term suppressive therapy or viral clearance. A reproducible neuronal model of human origin would facilitate studies of HSV and other neurotropic viruses. Current neuronal models in the herpesvirus field vary widely and have caveats, including incomplete differentiation, nonhuman origins, or the use of dividing cells that have neuropotential but lack neuronal morphology. In this study, we used a robust approach to differentiate human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells over 2.5 weeks, producing a uniform population of mature human neuronal cells. We demonstrate that terminally differentiated SH-SY5Y cells have neuronal morphology and express proteins with subcellular localization indicative of mature neurons. These neuronal cells are able to support a productive HSV-1 infection, with kinetics and overall titers similar to those seen in undifferentiated SH-SY5Y cells and the related SK-N-SH cell line. However, terminally differentiated, neuronal SH-SY5Y cells release significantly less extracellular HSV-1 by 24 h postinfection (hpi), suggesting a unique neuronal response to viral infection. With this model, we are able to distinguish differences in neuronal spread between two strains of HSV-1. We also show expression of the antiviral protein cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells, which is the first demonstration of the presence of this protein in nonepithelial cells. These data provide a model for studying neuron-virus interactions at the single-cell level as well as via bulk biochemistry and will be advantageous for the study of neurotropic viruses in vitro IMPORTANCE Herpes simplex virus (HSV) affects millions of people worldwide, causing painful oral and genital lesions, in addition to a multitude of more severe symptoms such as eye disease, neonatal infection, and, in rare

  12. Animal models and their importance to human physiological responses in microgravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, C. M.

    1996-01-01

    Two prominent theories to explain the physiological effects of microgravity relate to the cascade of changes associated with the cephalic shifts of fluids and the absence of tissue deformation forces. One-g experiments for humans used bed rest and the head-down tilt (HDT) method, while animal experiments have been conducted using the tail-suspended, head-down, and hindlimbs non-weightbearing model. Because of the success of the HDT approach with rats to simulate the gravitational effects on the musculoskeletal system exhibited by humans, the same model has been used to study the effects of gravity on the cardiopulmonary systems of humans and other vertebrates. Results to date indicate the model is effective in producing comparable changes associated with blood volume, erythropoiesis, cardiac mass, baroreceptor responsiveness, carbohydrate metabolism, post-flight VO2max, and post-flight cardiac output during exercise. Inherent with these results is the potential of the model to be useful in investigating responsible mechanisms. The suspension model has promise in understanding the capillary blood PO2 changes in space as well as the arterial PO2 changes in subjects participating in a HDT experiment. However, whether the model can provide insights on the up-or-down regulation of adrenoreceptors remains to be determined, and many investigators believe the HDT approach should not be followed to study gravitational influences on pulmonary function in either humans or animals. It was concluded that the tail-suspended animal model had sufficient merit to study in-flight and post-flight human physiological responses and mechanisms.

  13. Learning to Measure Biodiversity: Two Agent-Based Models that Simulate Sampling Methods & Provide Data for Calculating Diversity Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Thomas; Laughlin, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Nothing could be more effective than a wilderness experience to demonstrate the importance of conserving biodiversity. When that is not possible, though, there are computer models with several features that are helpful in understanding how biodiversity is measured. These models are easily used when natural resources, transportation, and time…

  14. Bayesian assessment of moving group membership: importance of models and prior knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jinhee; Song, Inseok

    2018-04-01

    Young nearby moving groups are important and useful in many fields of astronomy such as studying exoplanets, low-mass stars, and the stellar evolution of the early planetary systems over tens of millions of years, which has led to intensive searches for their members. Identification of members depends on the used models sensitively; therefore, careful examination of the models is required. In this study, we investigate the effects of the models used in moving group membership calculations based on a Bayesian framework (e.g. BANYAN II) focusing on the beta-Pictoris moving group (BPMG). Three improvements for building models are suggested: (1) updating a list of accepted members by re-assessing memberships in terms of position, motion, and age, (2) investigating member distribution functions in XYZ, and (3) exploring field star distribution functions in XYZ and UVW. The effect of each change is investigated, and we suggest using all of these improvements simultaneously in future membership probability calculations. Using this improved MG membership calculation and the careful examination of the age, 57 bona fide members of BPMG are confirmed including 12 new members. We additionally suggest 17 highly probable members.

  15. Modelling explicit tides in the Indonesian seas: An important process for surface sea water properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Dwiyoga; Koch-Larrouy, Ariane; Gaspar, Philippe; Lyard, Florent; Reffray, Guillaume; Tranchant, Benoit

    2017-06-16

    Very intense internal tides take place in Indonesian seas. They dissipate and affect the vertical distribution of temperature and currents, which in turn influence the survival rates and transports of most planktonic organisms at the base of the whole marine ecosystem. This study uses the INDESO physical model to characterize the internal tides spatio-temporal patterns in the Indonesian Seas. The model reproduced internal tide dissipation in agreement with previous fine structure and microstructure observed in-situ in the sites of generation. The model also produced similar water mass transformation as the previous parameterization of Koch-Larrouy et al. (2007), and show good agreement with observations. The resulting cooling at the surface is 0.3°C, with maxima of 0.8°C at the location of internal tides energy, with stronger cooling in austral winter. The cycle of spring tides and neap tides modulates this impact by 0.1°C to 0.3°C. These results suggest that mixing due to internal tides might also upwell nutrients at the surface at a frequency similar to the tidal frequencies. Implications for biogeochemical modelling are important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

  17. The Roy Adaptation Model: A Theoretical Framework for Nurses Providing Care to Individuals With Anorexia Nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Karen M

    Using a nursing theoretical framework to understand, elucidate, and propose nursing research is fundamental to knowledge development. This article presents the Roy Adaptation Model as a theoretical framework to better understand individuals with anorexia nervosa during acute treatment, and the role of nursing assessments and interventions in the promotion of weight restoration. Nursing assessments and interventions situated within the Roy Adaptation Model take into consideration how weight restoration does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptive process within external and internal environments, and has the potential for more holistic care.

  18. Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

    2018-03-01

    The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

  19. Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ceballos-Núñez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike, ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12–20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important

  20. A microbial clock provides an accurate estimate of the postmortem interval in a mouse model system

    OpenAIRE

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Wegener Parfrey, Laura; Gonzalez, Antonio; Lauber, Christian L; Knights, Dan; Ackermann, Gail; Humphrey, Gregory C; Gebert, Matthew J; Van Treuren, Will; Berg-Lyons, Donna; Keepers, Kyle; Guo, Yan; Bullard, James; Fierer, Noah; Carter, David O

    2013-01-01

    eLife digest Our bodies?especially our skin, our saliva, the lining of our mouth and our gastrointestinal tract?are home to a diverse collection of bacteria and other microorganisms called the microbiome. While the roles played by many of these microorganisms have yet to be identified, it is known that they contribute to the health and wellbeing of their host by metabolizing indigestible compounds, producing essential vitamins, and preventing the growth of harmful bacteria. They are important...

  1. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  2. Retrieving Backbone String Neighbors Provides Insights Into Structural Modeling of Membrane Proteins*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiang-Ming; Li, Tong-Hua; Cong, Pei-Sheng; Tang, Sheng-Nan; Xiong, Wen-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Identification of protein structural neighbors to a query is fundamental in structure and function prediction. Here we present BS-align, a systematic method to retrieve backbone string neighbors from primary sequences as templates for protein modeling. The backbone conformation of a protein is represented by the backbone string, as defined in Ramachandran space. The backbone string of a query can be accurately predicted by two innovative technologies: a knowledge-driven sequence alignment and encoding of a backbone string element profile. Then, the predicted backbone string is employed to align against a backbone string database and retrieve a set of backbone string neighbors. The backbone string neighbors were shown to be close to native structures of query proteins. BS-align was successfully employed to predict models of 10 membrane proteins with lengths ranging between 229 and 595 residues, and whose high-resolution structural determinations were difficult to elucidate both by experiment and prediction. The obtained TM-scores and root mean square deviations of the models confirmed that the models based on the backbone string neighbors retrieved by the BS-align were very close to the native membrane structures although the query and the neighbor shared a very low sequence identity. The backbone string system represents a new road for the prediction of protein structure from sequence, and suggests that the similarity of the backbone string would be more informative than describing a protein as belonging to a fold. PMID:22415040

  3. Retrieving backbone string neighbors provides insights into structural modeling of membrane proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiang-Ming; Li, Tong-Hua; Cong, Pei-Sheng; Tang, Sheng-Nan; Xiong, Wen-Wei

    2012-07-01

    Identification of protein structural neighbors to a query is fundamental in structure and function prediction. Here we present BS-align, a systematic method to retrieve backbone string neighbors from primary sequences as templates for protein modeling. The backbone conformation of a protein is represented by the backbone string, as defined in Ramachandran space. The backbone string of a query can be accurately predicted by two innovative technologies: a knowledge-driven sequence alignment and encoding of a backbone string element profile. Then, the predicted backbone string is employed to align against a backbone string database and retrieve a set of backbone string neighbors. The backbone string neighbors were shown to be close to native structures of query proteins. BS-align was successfully employed to predict models of 10 membrane proteins with lengths ranging between 229 and 595 residues, and whose high-resolution structural determinations were difficult to elucidate both by experiment and prediction. The obtained TM-scores and root mean square deviations of the models confirmed that the models based on the backbone string neighbors retrieved by the BS-align were very close to the native membrane structures although the query and the neighbor shared a very low sequence identity. The backbone string system represents a new road for the prediction of protein structure from sequence, and suggests that the similarity of the backbone string would be more informative than describing a protein as belonging to a fold.

  4. A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moreno

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities.

  5. Neutron Scattering Provides a New Model for Optimal Morphologies in Organic Photovoltaics: Rivers and Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmun, Mark; Henry, Nathan; Yin, Wen; Xiao, Kai; Ankner, John

    2011-03-01

    The current model for the ideal morphology of a conjugated polymer bulk heterojunction organic photovoltaic (OPV) is a phase-separated structure that consists of two pure phases, one an electron donor, the other an acceptor, that form an interpenetrating, bicontinuous, network on the length scale of 10-20 nm. In this talk, neutron scattering experiments that demonstrate that this model is incorrect for the archetypal conjugated polymer bulk heterojunction, poly[3-hexylthiophene] (P3HT) and the fullerene 1-(3-methyloxycarbonyl)propy(1-phenyl [6,6]) C61 (PCBM) will be presented. These studies show that the miscibility of PCBM in P3HT approaches 20 wt%, a result that is counter to the standard model of efficient organic photovoltaics. The implications of this finding on the ideal morphology of conjugated polymer bulk heterojunctions will be discussed, where these results are interpreted to present a model that agrees with this data, and conforms to structural and functional information in the literature. Furthermore, the thermodynamics of conjugated polymer:fullerene mixtures dominate the formation of this hierarchical morphology and must be more thoroughly understood to rationally design and fabricate optimum morphologies for OPV activity.

  6. The Strategic Thinking and Learning Community: An Innovative Model for Providing Academic Assistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commander, Nannette Evans; Valeri-Gold, Maria; Darnell, Kim

    2004-01-01

    Today, academic assistance efforts are frequently geared to all students, not just the underprepared, with study skills offered in various formats. In this article, the authors describe a learning community model with the theme, "Strategic Thinking and Learning" (STL). Results of data analysis indicate that participants of the STL…

  7. Models Provide Specificity: Testing a Proposed Mechanism of Visual Working Memory Capacity Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmering, Vanessa R.; Patterson, Rebecca

    2012-01-01

    Numerous studies have established that visual working memory has a limited capacity that increases during childhood. However, debate continues over the source of capacity limits and its developmental increase. Simmering (2008) adapted a computational model of spatial cognitive development, the Dynamic Field Theory, to explain not only the source…

  8. Using Model-Based System Engineering to Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-Cycle and Technical Reviews Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrott, Edith L.; Weiland, Karen J.

    2017-01-01

    This is the presentation for the AIAA Space conference in September 2017. It highlights key information from Using Model-Based Systems Engineering to Provide Artifacts for NASA Project Life-cycle and Technical Reviews paper.

  9. The importance of data quality for generating reliable distribution models for rare, elusive, and cryptic species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith B Aubry

    Full Text Available The availability of spatially referenced environmental data and species occurrence records in online databases enable practitioners to easily generate species distribution models (SDMs for a broad array of taxa. Such databases often include occurrence records of unknown reliability, yet little information is available on the influence of data quality on SDMs generated for rare, elusive, and cryptic species that are prone to misidentification in the field. We investigated this question for the fisher (Pekania pennanti, a forest carnivore of conservation concern in the Pacific States that is often confused with the more common Pacific marten (Martes caurina. Fisher occurrence records supported by physical evidence (verifiable records were available from a limited area, whereas occurrence records of unknown quality (unscreened records were available from throughout the fisher's historical range. We reserved 20% of the verifiable records to use as a test sample for both models and generated SDMs with each dataset using Maxent. The verifiable model performed substantially better than the unscreened model based on multiple metrics including AUCtest values (0.78 and 0.62, respectively, evaluation of training and test gains, and statistical tests of how well each model predicted test localities. In addition, the verifiable model was consistent with our knowledge of the fisher's habitat relations and potential distribution, whereas the unscreened model indicated a much broader area of high-quality habitat (indices > 0.5 that included large expanses of high-elevation habitat that fishers do not occupy. Because Pacific martens remain relatively common in upper elevation habitats in the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada, the SDM based on unscreened records likely reflects primarily a conflation of marten and fisher habitat. Consequently, accurate identifications are far more important than the spatial extent of occurrence records for generating reliable SDMs

  10. The importance of volumetric canopy morphology when modelling drag around riparian vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boothroyd, Richard; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff; Marjoribanks, Timothy

    2017-04-01

    Riparian vegetation has a significant impact on the hydraulic functioning of river systems. The bulk of past work concerned with modelling the influence of vegetation on flow has considered vegetation to be morphologically simple, and has generally neglected the complexity and porosity of natural plants, defined herein as the volumetric canopy morphology. However, the volumetric canopy morphology can influence the mean and turbulent properties of the flow, producing spatially heterogeneous downstream velocity fields. By explicitly accounting for this in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, and representing the plant as a porous blockage, complex flow structures and drag can be modelled. For a riparian species, Hebe odora, good agreement with flume measurements are found. Plant shear layer turbulence is shown to be dominated by Kelvin-Helmholtz and Görtler-type vortices, generated through shear instability. Porous representations of the plants, that allow for flow to pass through the plant canopy interior, are compared against fully impermeable plant representations. Penetration of fluid through the canopy in the porous case resembles 'bleed-flow', and this results in a plant wake region that significantly differs from the impermeable case, which is characteristic of wake flow around a traditional bluff body. These results demonstrate the significant effect that the volumetric canopy morphology and porosity of natural plants has on the three-dimensional flow and in-stream drag, and enables a re-evaluation of vegetative flow resistance. The modelled results allow a species dependent Manning's n to be calculated, and this presents an opportunity to move away from the conventional methods of representing vegetation in hydraulic models, in favour of a more physically determined approach. Given the importance of vegetation in river corridor management, and the increasing application of UAV imagery to map riparian vegetation, the numerical scheme developed here

  11. A Structural Model for a Self-Assembled Nanotube Provides Insight into Its Exciton Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The design and synthesis of functional self-assembled nanostructures is frequently an empirical process fraught with critical knowledge gaps about atomic-level structure in these noncovalent systems. Here, we report a structural model for a semiconductor nanotube formed via the self-assembly of naphthalenediimide-lysine (NDI-Lys) building blocks determined using experimental 13C–13C and 13C–15N distance restraints from solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance supplemented by electron microscopy and X-ray powder diffraction data. The structural model reveals a two-dimensional-crystal-like architecture of stacked monolayer rings each containing ∼50 NDI-Lys molecules, with significant π-stacking interactions occurring both within the confines of the ring and along the long axis of the tube. Excited-state delocalization and energy transfer are simulated for the nanotube based on time-dependent density functional theory and an incoherent hopping model. Remarkably, these calculations reveal efficient energy migration from the excitonic bright state, which is in agreement with the rapid energy transfer within NDI-Lys nanotubes observed previously using fluorescence spectroscopy. PMID:26120375

  12. Model of a multiverse providing the dark energy of our universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebhan, E.

    2017-09-01

    It is shown that the dark energy presently observed in our universe can be regarded as the energy of a scalar field driving an inflation-like expansion of a multiverse with ours being a subuniverse among other parallel universes. A simple model of this multiverse is elaborated: Assuming closed space geometry, the origin of the multiverse can be explained by quantum tunneling from nothing; subuniverses are supposed to emerge from local fluctuations of separate inflation fields. The standard concept of tunneling from nothing is extended to the effect that in addition to an inflationary scalar field, matter is also generated, and that the tunneling leads to an (unstable) equilibrium state. The cosmological principle is assumed to pertain from the origin of the multiverse until the first subuniverses emerge. With increasing age of the multiverse, its spatial curvature decays exponentially so fast that, due to sharing the same space, the flatness problem of our universe resolves by itself. The dark energy density imprinted by the multiverse on our universe is time-dependent, but such that the ratio w = ϱ/(c2p) of its mass density and pressure (times c2) is time-independent and assumes a value - 1 + 𝜖 with arbitrary 𝜖 > 0. 𝜖 can be chosen so small, that the dark energy model of this paper can be fitted to the current observational data as well as the cosmological constant model.

  13. Using an established telehealth model to train urban primary care providers on hypertension management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Christopher; Hamlish, Tamara; Davis, Andrew; Bordenave, Kristine; Brown, Stephen; Perea, Brenda; Aduana, Glen; Wolfe, Marcus; Bakris, George; Johnson, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether a videoconference-based telehealth network can increase hypertension management knowledge and self-assessed competency among primary care providers (PCPs) working in urban Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs). We created a telehealth network among 6 urban FQHCs and our institution to support a 12-session educational program designed to teach state-of-the-art hypertension management. Each 1-hour session included a brief lecture by a university-based hypertension specialist, case presentations by PCPs, and interactive discussions among the specialist and PCPs. Twelve PCPs (9 intervention and 3 controls) were surveyed at baseline and immediately following the curriculum. The mean number of correct answers on the 26-item hypertension knowledge questionnaire increased in the intervention group (13.11 [standard deviation (SD)]=3.06) to 17.44 [SD=1.59], Phypertension management self-assessed competency scale increased in the intervention group (4.68 [SD=0.94] to 5.41 [SD=0.89], Phypertension care provided by urban FQHC providers. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. The importance of the strain rate and creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aly, Omar F.; Mattar Neto, Miguel; Schvartzman, Monica M.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Stress corrosion cracking is a nuclear, power, petrochemical, and other industries equipment and components (like pressure vessels, nozzles, tubes, accessories) life degradation mode, involving fragile fracture. The stress corrosion cracking failures can produce serious accidents, and incidents which can put on risk the safety, reliability, and efficiency of many plants. These failures are of very complex prediction. The stress corrosion cracking mechanisms are based on three kinds of factors: microstructural, mechanical and environmental. Concerning the mechanical factors, various authors prefer to consider the crack tip strain rate rather than stress, as a decisive factor which contributes to the process: this parameter is directly influenced by the creep strain rate of the material. Based on two KAPL-Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory experimental studies in SSRT (slow strain rate test) and CL (constant load) test, for prediction of primary water stress corrosion cracking in nickel based alloys, it has done a data compilation of the film rupture mechanism parameters, for modeling PWSCC of Alloy 600 and discussed the importance of the strain rate and the creep on the stress corrosion cracking mechanisms and models. As derived from this study, a simple theoretical model is proposed, and it is showed that the crack growth rate estimated with Brazilian tests results with Alloy 600 in SSRT, are according with the KAPL ones and other published literature. (author)

  16. The Importance of Being Hybrid for Spatial Epidemic Models:A Multi-Scale Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Banos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses the spread of a disease within an urban system, definedas a network of interconnected cities. The first step consists of comparing two differentapproaches: a macroscopic one, based on a system of coupled Ordinary DifferentialEquations (ODE Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR systems exploiting populations onnodes and flows on edges (so-called metapopulational model, and a hybrid one, couplingODE SIR systems on nodes and agents traveling on edges. Under homogeneous conditions(mean field approximation, this comparison leads to similar results on the outputs on whichwe focus (the maximum intensity of the epidemic, its duration and the time of the epidemicpeak. However, when it comes to setting up epidemic control strategies, results rapidlydiverge between the two approaches, and it appears that the full macroscopic model is notcompletely adapted to these questions. In this paper, we focus on some control strategies,which are quarantine, avoidance and risk culture, to explore the differences, advantages anddisadvantages of the two models and discuss the importance of being hybrid when modelingand simulating epidemic spread at the level of a whole urban system.

  17. RESEARCH OF PROBLEMS OF DESIGN OF COMPLEX TECHNICAL PROVIDING AND THE GENERALIZED MODEL OF THEIR DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Skrypnikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. In this work the general ideas of a method of V. I. Skurikhin taking into account the specified features develop and questions of the analysis and synthesis of a complex of technical means, with finishing them to the level suitable for use in engineering practice of design of information management systems are in more detail considered. In work the general system approach to the solution of questions of a choice of technical means of the information management system is created, the general technique of the sys tem analysis and synthesis of a complex of the technical means and its subsystems providing achievement of extreme value of criterion of efficiency of functioning of a technical complex of the information management system is developed. The main attention is paid to the applied party of system researches of complex technical providing, in particular, to definition of criteria of quality of functioning of a technical complex, development of methods of the analysis of information base of the information management system and definition of requirements to technical means, and also methods of structural synthesis of the main subsystems of complex technical providing. Thus, the purpose is research on the basis of system approach of complex technical providing the information management system and development of a number of methods of the analysis and the synthesis of complex technical providing suitable for use in engineering practice of design of systems. The well-known paradox of development of management information consists of that parameters of the system, and consequently, and requirements to the complex hardware, can not be strictly reasonable to development of algorithms and programs, and vice versa. The possible method of overcoming of these difficulties is prognostication of structure and parameters of complex hardware for certain management informations on the early stages of development, with subsequent clarification and

  18. Develop a Prototype Personal Health Record Application (PHR-A) that Captures Information About Daily Living Important for Diabetes and Provides Decision Support with Actionable Advice for Diabetes Self Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    based diet and engage in regular physical activity. For a variety of reasons, many people with diabetes do not or cannot adhere to these requirements...Living Important for Diabetes and Provides Decision Support with Actionable Advice for Diabetes Self Care”. PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Dr. Stephanie Fonda...SUBTITLE “Develop a Prototype Personal Health Record Application (PHR-A) that Captures Information About Daily Living Important for Diabetes and Provides

  19. Sunitinib malate provides activity against murine bladder tumor growth and invasion in a preclinical orthotopic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Eddie Shu-yin; Patel, Amit R; Hansel, Donna E; Larchian, William A; Heston, Warren D

    2012-09-01

    To evaluate the effects of sunitinib on localized bladder cancer in a mouse orthotopic bladder tumor model. We used an established orthotopic mouse bladder cancer model in syngeneic C3H/He mice. Treatment doses of 40 mg/kg of sunitinib or placebo sterile saline were administrated daily by oral gavage. Tumor volume, intratumoral perfusion, and in vivo vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 expression were measured using a targeted contrast-enhanced micro-ultrasound imaging system. The findings were correlated with the total bladder weight, tumor stage, and survival. The effects of sunitinib malate on angiogenesis and cellular proliferation were measured by immunostaining of CD31 and Ki-67. Significant inhibition of tumor growth was seen after sunitinib treatment compared with the control. The incidence of extravesical extension of the bladder tumor and hydroureter in the sunitinib-treated group (30% and 20%, respectively) was lower than the incidence in the control group (66.7% and 55.6%, respectively). Sunitinib therapy prolonged the survival in mice, with statistical significance (log-rank test, P = .03). On targeted contrast-enhanced micro-ultrasound imaging, in vivo vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2 expression was reduced in the sunitinib group and correlated with a decrease in microvessel density. The results of our study have demonstrated the antitumor effects of sunitinib in the mouse localized bladder cancer model. Sunitinib inhibited the growth of bladder tumors and prolonged survival. Given that almost 30% of cases in our treatment arm developed extravesical disease, sunitinib might be suited as a part of a multimodal treatment regimen for bladder cancer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A spirulina-enhanced diet provides neuroprotection in an α-synuclein model of Parkinson's disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mibel M Pabon

    Full Text Available Inflammation in the brain plays a major role in neurodegenerative diseases. In particular, microglial cell activation is believed to be associated with the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's disease (PD. An increase in microglia activation has been shown in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc of PD models when there has been a decrease in tyrosine hydroxylase (TH positive cells. This may be a sign of neurotoxicity due to prolonged activation of microglia in both early and late stages of disease progression. Natural products, such as spirulina, derived from blue green algae, are believed to help reverse this effect due to its anti-inflammatory/anti-oxidant properties. An adeno-associated virus vector (AAV9 for α-synuclein was injected in the substantia nigra of rats to model Parkinson's disease and to study the effects of spirulina on the inflammatory response. One month prior to surgeries, rats were fed either a diet enhanced with spirulina or a control diet. Immunohistochemistry was analyzed with unbiased stereological methods to quantify lesion size and microglial activation. As hypothesized, spirulina was neuroprotective in this α-synuclein model of PD as more TH+ and NeuN+ cells were observed; spirulina concomitantly decreased the numbers of activated microglial cells as determined by MHCII expression. This decrease in microglia activation may have been due, in part, to the effect of spirulina to increase expression of the fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1 on microglia. With this study we hypothesize that α-synuclein neurotoxicity is mediated, at least in part, via an interaction with microglia. We observed a decrease in activated microglia in the rats that received a spirulina- enhanced diet concomitant to neuroprotection. The increase in CX3CR1 in the groups that received spirulina, suggests a potential mechanism of action.

  1. An artificial pancreas provided a novel model of blood glucose level variability in beagles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munekage, Masaya; Yatabe, Tomoaki; Kitagawa, Hiroyuki; Takezaki, Yuka; Tamura, Takahiko; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Hanazaki, Kazuhiro

    2015-12-01

    Although the effects on prognosis of blood glucose level variability have gained increasing attention, it is unclear whether blood glucose level variability itself or the manifestation of pathological conditions that worsen prognosis. Then, previous reports have not been published on variability models of perioperative blood glucose levels. The aim of this study is to establish a novel variability model of blood glucose concentration using an artificial pancreas. We maintained six healthy, male beagles. After anesthesia induction, a 20-G venous catheter was inserted in the right femoral vein and an artificial pancreas (STG-22, Nikkiso Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) was connected for continuous blood glucose monitoring and glucose management. After achieving muscle relaxation, total pancreatectomy was performed. After 1 h of stabilization, automatic blood glucose control was initiated using the artificial pancreas. Blood glucose level varied for 8 h, alternating between the target blood glucose values of 170 and 70 mg/dL. Eight hours later, the experiment was concluded. Total pancreatectomy was performed for 62 ± 13 min. Blood glucose swings were achieved 9.8 ± 2.3 times. The average blood glucose level was 128.1 ± 5.1 mg/dL with an SD of 44.6 ± 3.9 mg/dL. The potassium levels after stabilization and at the end of the experiment were 3.5 ± 0.3 and 3.1 ± 0.5 mmol/L, respectively. In conclusion, the results of the present study demonstrated that an artificial pancreas contributed to the establishment of a novel variability model of blood glucose levels in beagles.

  2. Rat tibial osteotomy model providing a range of normal to impaired healing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Joan D; Weinhold, Paul; Brimmo, Olubusola; Dahners, Laurence

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an inexpensive and easily implemented rat tibial osteotomy model capable of producing a range of healing outcomes. A saw blade was used to create a transverse osteotomy of the tibia in 89 Sprague-Dawley rats. A 0.89 mm diameter stainless steel wire was then inserted as an intramedullary nail to stabilize the fracture. To impair healing, 1, 2, or 3 mm cylindrical polyetheretherketone (PEEK) spacer beads were threaded onto the wires, between the bone ends. Fracture healing was evaluated radiographically, biomechanically, and histologically at 5 weeks. Means were compared for statistical differences by one-way ANOVA and Holm-Sidak multiple comparison testing. The mean number of "cortices bridged" for the no spacer group was 3.4 (SD ± 0.8), which was significantly greater than in the 1 mm (2.3 ± 1.4), 2 mm (0.8 ± 0.7), and 3 mm (0.3 ± 0.4) groups (p < 0.003). Biomechanical results correlated with radiographic findings, with an ultimate torque of 172 ± 53, 137 ± 41, 90 ± 38, and 24 ± 23 N/mm with a 0, 1, 2, or 3 mm defect, respectively. In conclusion, we have demonstrated that this inexpensive, technically straightforward model can be used to create a range of outcomes from normal healing to impaired healing, to nonunions. This model may be useful for testing new therapeutic strategies to promote fracture healing, materials thought to be able to heal critical-sized defects, or evaluating agents suspected of impairing healing. Copyright © 2010 Orthopaedic Research Society.

  3. A Spirulina-Enhanced Diet Provides Neuroprotection in an α-Synuclein Model of Parkinson's Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabon, Mibel M.; Jernberg, Jennifer N.; Morganti, Josh; Contreras, Jessika; Hudson, Charles E.; Klein, Ronald L.; Bickford, Paula C.

    2012-01-01

    Inflammation in the brain plays a major role in neurodegenerative diseases. In particular, microglial cell activation is believed to be associated with the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson’s disease (PD). An increase in microglia activation has been shown in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) of PD models when there has been a decrease in tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) positive cells. This may be a sign of neurotoxicity due to prolonged activation of microglia in both early and late stages of disease progression. Natural products, such as spirulina, derived from blue green algae, are believed to help reverse this effect due to its anti-inflammatory/anti-oxidant properties. An adeno-associated virus vector (AAV9) for α-synuclein was injected in the substantia nigra of rats to model Parkinson's disease and to study the effects of spirulina on the inflammatory response. One month prior to surgeries, rats were fed either a diet enhanced with spirulina or a control diet. Immunohistochemistry was analyzed with unbiased stereological methods to quantify lesion size and microglial activation. As hypothesized, spirulina was neuroprotective in this α-synuclein model of PD as more TH+ and NeuN+ cells were observed; spirulina concomitantly decreased the numbers of activated microglial cells as determined by MHCII expression. This decrease in microglia activation may have been due, in part, to the effect of spirulina to increase expression of the fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1) on microglia. With this study we hypothesize that α-synuclein neurotoxicity is mediated, at least in part, via an interaction with microglia. We observed a decrease in activated microglia in the rats that received a spirulina- enhanced diet concomitant to neuroprotection. The increase in CX3CR1 in the groups that received spirulina, suggests a potential mechanism of action. PMID:23028885

  4. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

  5. User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

    2013-01-01

    User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

  6. Financial mechanisms and social safety-oriented model of development of the Russian economy (based on import substitution and innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Ovchinnikova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In article features of import substitution in the socially oriented model determined as economy with the high level of the state income redistribution of subjects of managing and developed on this basis of system of social protection are considered. Import substitution is considered from the traditional point of view – creation of new productions and technologies which are implemented at the expense of own and borrowed funds of investors. The financial mechanisms for implementation of innovations promoting import substitution are offered: industry plans and road maps as availability of reference points for creation of rational amounts of the budget payments and financial resources of the entities necessary for upgrade of productions, and also the directions of financial resources for implementation of specific most important national priorities and innovative investment projects. The volume of investment into the fixed capital correlated to its cost considerably grew from 3.5% in 2003 to 11.6% in 2009, but value of this indicator isn't enough as degree of depreciation of fixed assets in economy of the region constituted 44.9% in 2009. Direct foreign investments prevail: in Krasnoyarsk Krai their share constituted in 2009 – 45.4%, Krasnodar Region – 40.5%, the Nizhny Novgorod Region – 84.5%. In the Voronezh region such entities as KBHA, Federal State Unitary Enterprise State Research and Production Space Center branch of M. V. Khrunichev the Voronezh Mechanical Plant, JSC Sozvezdiye Concern having the high technologies making safety of the country and especially needing investments function. In plans of urgent strategy of social and economic development of the Voronezh region it is supposed to increase specific weight of innovative products of such entities and to increase the level of innovative activity till 2020. The socially oriented model considering import substitution domestic technologies and products needs strengthening of the

  7. Metabolomic perfusate analysis during kidney machine perfusion: the pig provides an appropriate model for human studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Nath

    Full Text Available Hypothermic machine perfusion offers great promise in kidney transplantation and experimental studies are needed to establish the optimal conditions for this to occur. Pig kidneys are considered to be a good model for this purpose and share many properties with human organs. However it is not established whether the metabolism of pig kidneys in such hypothermic hypoxic conditions is comparable to human organs.Standard criteria human (n = 12 and porcine (n = 10 kidneys underwent HMP using the LifePort Kidney Transporter 1.0 (Organ Recovery Systems using KPS-1 solution. Perfusate was sampled at 45 minutes and 4 hours of perfusion and metabolomic analysis performed using 1-D 1H-NMR spectroscopy.There was no inter-species difference in the number of metabolites identified. Of the 30 metabolites analysed, 16 (53.3% were present in comparable concentrations in the pig and human kidney perfusates. The rate of change of concentration for 3-Hydroxybutyrate was greater for human kidneys (p<0.001. For the other 29 metabolites (96.7%, there was no difference in the rate of change of concentration between pig and human samples.Whilst there are some differences between pig and human kidneys during HMP they appear to be metabolically similar and the pig seems to be a valid model for human studies.

  8. Penerapan Model Multidimensional Scaling dalam Pemetaan Brand Positioning Internet Service Provider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robertus Tang Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available In this high-tech era, there have been tremendous advances in tech-based products and services. Internet is one of them that have widened the world’s eyes to a new borderless marketplace. High competition among internet service providers has pushed companies to create competitive advantage and brilliant marketing strategies. They undertake positioning mapping to describe product or service’s positioning amongst many competitors. The right positioning strategy becomes a powerful weapon to win in the battle. This research is designed to create positioning mapping based on perceptual mapping. The researcher uses Multidimensional Scaling and image mapping to achieve this research goal. Sampling is using non-probability sampling in Jakarta. Based on non-attribute approach, the research findings show that there is similarity between two different brands. Thus, both brands are competing against one another. On the other hand, CBN and Netzap provider reflect some differences to others. And some brands require some improvements in terms of network reliability.

  9. Fee-for-service as a business model of growing importance: the academic biobank experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Sandra A; Sommerkamp, Kara; Egan-Palmer, Maureen; Kharasch, Karen; Holtschlag, Victoria

    2012-10-01

    Biorepositories offer tremendous scientific value to a wide variety of customer groups (academic, commercial, industrial) in their ability to deliver a centralized, standardized service model, encompassing both biospecimen storage and related laboratory services. Generally, the scientific expertise and economies of scale that are offered in centralized, properly resourced research biobanks has yielded value that has been well-recognized by universities, pharmaceutical companies, and other sponsoring institutions. However, like many facets of the economy, biobanks have been under increasing cost pressure in recent years. This has been a particular problem in the academic arena, where direct support from grant sources (both governmental and philanthropic) typically now is more difficult to secure, or provides reduced financial support, relative to previous years. One way to address this challenge is to establish or enhance a well-defined fee-for-service model which is properly calibrated to cover operational costs while still offering competitive value to users. In this model, customers are never charged for the biospecimens themselves, but rather for the laboratory services associated with them. Good communication practices, proper assessment of value, implementation of best practices, and a sound business plan are all needed for this initiative to succeed. Here we summarize our experiences at Washington University School of Medicine in the expectation they will be useful to others.

  10. On the importance of valve modelling, reflected pressures, and wall friction, in CATHENA water hammer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuthe, T.G.

    1998-01-01

    The results of code and modelling developments outlined in this paper show that CATHENA can be used to accurately model the behaviour of valve slam generated water hammer if sufficient care and detail are used to model the characteristics of the valve. It also shows that CATHENA can accurately predict the reflection and transmission of travelling water pressure waves at expansions, contractions, and dead ends. Finally, although CATHENA is capable of accurately predicting the critical phenomena observed in water hammer, the inter-peak timing of the pressure excursions is not well predicted when significant bulk flows occur. The use of an unsteady wall friction factor to correct for this discrepancy has been examined, but the implementation of relationships suggested in the literature provided too much damping. A good match between experimental and simulation data can be achieved, but it is suggested that the default implementation of such a relationship take place only after an investigation of further potential loss terms can be completed. (author)

  11. Measuring the Quality of Services Provided for Outpatients in Kowsar Clinic in Ardebil City Based on the SERVQUAL Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Ghobadi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Today, the concept of q uality of services is particularly important in health care and customer satisfaction can be defined by comparing the expectations of the services with perception of provided services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of services provided for outpatients in clinic of Ardebil city based on the SERVQUAL model.   Methods: This descriptive study was conducted on 650 patients referred to outpatient clinic since July to September 201 3 using a standardized SERVQUAL questionnaire (1988 with confirmed reliability and validity. The paired t-test and Friedman test were used for analysis of data by SPSS software.   Results: 56.1 % of respondents were male and 43.9 % of them were female . The mean age of patients was 33 ± 11.91 , 68.9 % of patients were in Ardabil and 27.3 % of them had bachelor's or higher. The results showed that there is a significant difference between perceptions and expectations of the patients about five dimensions of the service quality (tangibility, reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy in the studied clinic (P< 0.001. The highest mean gap and minimum gap were related to empathy and assurance, respectively.   Conclusion: Regarding to observed differences in quality , the managers and also planners have to evaluate their performance more accurately in order to have better planning for future actions. In fact, any efforts to reduce the gap between expectation and perception of patients result in greater satisfaction, loyalty and further visits to organizations.

  12. SNP discovery and chromosome anchoring provide the first physically-anchored hexaploid oat map and reveal synteny with model species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebekah E Oliver

    Full Text Available A physically anchored consensus map is foundational to modern genomics research; however, construction of such a map in oat (Avena sativa L., 2n = 6x = 42 has been hindered by the size and complexity of the genome, the scarcity of robust molecular markers, and the lack of aneuploid stocks. Resources developed in this study include a modified SNP discovery method for complex genomes, a diverse set of oat SNP markers, and a novel chromosome-deficient SNP anchoring strategy. These resources were applied to build the first complete, physically-anchored consensus map of hexaploid oat. Approximately 11,000 high-confidence in silico SNPs were discovered based on nine million inter-varietal sequence reads of genomic and cDNA origin. GoldenGate genotyping of 3,072 SNP assays yielded 1,311 robust markers, of which 985 were mapped in 390 recombinant-inbred lines from six bi-parental mapping populations ranging in size from 49 to 97 progeny. The consensus map included 985 SNPs and 68 previously-published markers, resolving 21 linkage groups with a total map distance of 1,838.8 cM. Consensus linkage groups were assigned to 21 chromosomes using SNP deletion analysis of chromosome-deficient monosomic hybrid stocks. Alignments with sequenced genomes of rice and Brachypodium provide evidence for extensive conservation of genomic regions, and renewed encouragement for orthology-based genomic discovery in this important hexaploid species. These results also provide a framework for high-resolution genetic analysis in oat, and a model for marker development and map construction in other species with complex genomes and limited resources.

  13. Aire-deficient mice provide a model of corneal and lacrimal gland neuropathy in Sjögren's syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feeling Y Chen

    Full Text Available Sjögren's syndrome (SS is a chronic, autoimmune exocrinopathy that leads to severe dryness of the mouth and eyes. Exocrine function is highly regulated by neuronal mechanisms but little is known about the link between chronic inflammation, innervation and altered exocrine function in the diseased eyes and exocrine glands of SS patients. To gain a better understanding of neuronal regulation in the immunopathogenesis of autoimmune exocrinopathy, we profiled a mouse model of spontaneous, autoimmune exocrinopathy that possess key characteristics of peripheral neuropathy experienced by SS patients. Mice deficient in the autoimmune regulator (Aire gene developed spontaneous, CD4+ T cell-mediated exocrinopathy and aqueous-deficient dry eye that were associated with loss of nerves innervating the cornea and lacrimal gland. Changes in innervation and tear secretion were accompanied by increased proliferation of corneal epithelial basal cells, limbal expansion of KRT19-positive progenitor cells, increased vascularization of the peripheral cornea and reduced nerve function in the lacrimal gland. In addition, we found extensive loss of MIST1+ secretory acinar cells in the Aire -/- lacrimal gland suggesting that acinar cells are a primary target of the disease, Finally, topical application of ophthalmic steroid effectively restored corneal innervation in Aire -/- mice thereby functionally linking nerve loss with local inflammation in the aqueous-deficient dry eye. These data provide important insight regarding the relationship between chronic inflammation and neuropathic changes in autoimmune-mediated dry eye. Peripheral neuropathies characteristic of SS appear to be tightly linked with the underlying immunopathological mechanism and Aire -/- mice provide an excellent tool to explore the interplay between SS-associated immunopathology and peripheral neuropathy.

  14. Aire-deficient mice provide a model of corneal and lacrimal gland neuropathy in Sjögren's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feeling Y; Lee, Albert; Ge, Shaokui; Nathan, Sara; Knox, Sarah M; McNamara, Nancy A

    2017-01-01

    Sjögren's syndrome (SS) is a chronic, autoimmune exocrinopathy that leads to severe dryness of the mouth and eyes. Exocrine function is highly regulated by neuronal mechanisms but little is known about the link between chronic inflammation, innervation and altered exocrine function in the diseased eyes and exocrine glands of SS patients. To gain a better understanding of neuronal regulation in the immunopathogenesis of autoimmune exocrinopathy, we profiled a mouse model of spontaneous, autoimmune exocrinopathy that possess key characteristics of peripheral neuropathy experienced by SS patients. Mice deficient in the autoimmune regulator (Aire) gene developed spontaneous, CD4+ T cell-mediated exocrinopathy and aqueous-deficient dry eye that were associated with loss of nerves innervating the cornea and lacrimal gland. Changes in innervation and tear secretion were accompanied by increased proliferation of corneal epithelial basal cells, limbal expansion of KRT19-positive progenitor cells, increased vascularization of the peripheral cornea and reduced nerve function in the lacrimal gland. In addition, we found extensive loss of MIST1+ secretory acinar cells in the Aire -/- lacrimal gland suggesting that acinar cells are a primary target of the disease, Finally, topical application of ophthalmic steroid effectively restored corneal innervation in Aire -/- mice thereby functionally linking nerve loss with local inflammation in the aqueous-deficient dry eye. These data provide important insight regarding the relationship between chronic inflammation and neuropathic changes in autoimmune-mediated dry eye. Peripheral neuropathies characteristic of SS appear to be tightly linked with the underlying immunopathological mechanism and Aire -/- mice provide an excellent tool to explore the interplay between SS-associated immunopathology and peripheral neuropathy.

  15. JSBML 1.0: providing a smorgasbord of options to encode systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Nicolas; Thomas, Alex; Watanabe, Leandro; Vazirabad, Ibrahim Y; Kofia, Victor; Gómez, Harold F; Mittag, Florian; Matthes, Jakob; Rudolph, Jan; Wrzodek, Finja; Netz, Eugen; Diamantikos, Alexander; Eichner, Johannes; Keller, Roland; Wrzodek, Clemens; Fröhlich, Sebastian; Lewis, Nathan E; Myers, Chris J; Le Novère, Nicolas; Palsson, Bernhard Ø; Hucka, Michael; Dräger, Andreas

    2015-10-15

    JSBML, the official pure Java programming library for the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) format, has evolved with the advent of different modeling formalisms in systems biology and their ability to be exchanged and represented via extensions of SBML. JSBML has matured into a major, active open-source project with contributions from a growing, international team of developers who not only maintain compatibility with SBML, but also drive steady improvements to the Java interface and promote ease-of-use with end users. Source code, binaries and documentation for JSBML can be freely obtained under the terms of the LGPL 2.1 from the website http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML. More information about JSBML can be found in the user guide at http://sbml.org/Software/JSBML/docs/. jsbml-development@googlegroups.com or andraeger@eng.ucsd.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

  16. Pharmacological targeting of GSK-3 and NRF2 provides neuroprotection in a preclinical model of tauopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Cuadrado

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Tauopathies are a group of neurodegenerative disorders where TAU protein is presented as aggregates or is abnormally phosphorylated, leading to alterations of axonal transport, neuronal death and neuroinflammation. Currently, there is no treatment to slow progression of these diseases. Here, we have investigated whether dimethyl fumarate (DMF, an inducer of the transcription factor NRF2, could mitigate tauopathy in a mouse model. The signaling pathways modulated by DMF were also studied in mouse embryonic fibroblast (MEFs from wild type or KEAP1-deficient mice. The effect of DMF on neurodegeneration, astrocyte and microglial activation was examined in Nrf2+/+ and Nrf2−/− mice stereotaxically injected in the right hippocampus with an adeno-associated vector expressing human TAUP301L and treated daily with DMF (100 mg/kg, i.g during three weeks. DMF induces the NRF2 transcriptional through a mechanism that involves KEAP1 but also PI3K/AKT/GSK-3-dependent pathways. DMF modulates GSK-3β activity in mouse hippocampi. Furthermore, DMF modulates TAU phosphorylation, neuronal impairment measured by calbindin-D28K and BDNF expression, and inflammatory processes involved in astrogliosis, microgliosis and pro-inflammatory cytokines production. This study reveals neuroprotective effects of DMF beyond disruption of the KEAP1/NRF2 axis by inhibiting GSK3 in a mouse model of tauopathy. Our results support repurposing of this drug for treatment of these diseases. Keywords: DMF, Inflammation, Neurodegeneration, NRF2, Oxidative stress, TAU/ GSK-3

  17. The Importance of Role Modeling in Mentoring Women: Lessons from Pat Summitt Legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Picariello Manuela

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The role of mentoring for women in sports industry has gathered attention among researchers in the past years (Bower, 2009; Bower, & Hums 2009, 2014; Weaver, & Chelladurai, 1999, 2002. Since few women are in leadership positions (Acosta, & Carpenter, 2014, cross-gender mentoring relationships are more likely to happen (Hopkins et al., 2008. However, according to Kram (1985, cross-gender mentoring relationships are more complex in terms of individual development and quality of the developmental relationship. In particular, role modeling function is limited (Kram, 1985. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the functions of the same gender mentoring relationships looking at coach Pat Summitt, the winningest coach in NCAA Division I basketball history and a woman in leadership position (Becker & Wrisberg, 2008. Due to the exploratory nature of the study and the huge impact of Pat Summitt on sport (Janssen, & Dale, 2002, De Marco, & Mccullick, 1997, a single case study design to analyze her relationships from the staff and players’ perspectives was utilized as the method for data collection. This study collected data published on American news sites located using Internet search engines Google News (http://www.google.com for 7 days. The dataset included content published through national and regional online news media, radio, television and entertainment websites and blogs. Texts were qualitatively reviewed with a content analysis and coded (Patton, 2002. This study identified career and psychosocial functions that were important in developing an effective mentoring relationships. In particular, the psychosocial functions of “role modeling” was identified as the most important for the relationship. In fact a female mentor as a role model can be perceived as a woman that has successfully overcome discriminatory barriers to career advancement.

  18. Bridging the financial gap through providing contract services: a model for publicly funded clinical biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlakidis, Zisis; Mant, Christine; Cason, John

    2012-08-01

    Biobanks offer translational researchers a novel method of obtaining clinical research materials, patient data, and relevant ethical and legal permissions. However, such tissue collections are expensive to establish and maintain. Current opinion is that such initiatives can only survive with core funding from Government or major funding bodies. Given the present climate of financial austerity, funding agencies may be tempted to invest in fast-return research projects rather than in maintaining tissue collections, whose benefits will only become apparent in much longer timescales. Thus, securing additional funding for biobanks could provide a valuable boost enabling an extension of core services. Here we suggest that using biobank expertise to offer contract services to clinicians and industry may be an alternative approach to obtaining such extra funding.

  19. Patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cells in neurological disease modeling: the importance of nonhuman primate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiu Z

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Zhifang Qiu,1,2 Steven L Farnsworth,2 Anuja Mishra,1,2 Peter J Hornsby1,21Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, USA; 2Barshop Institute for Longevity and Aging Studies, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, USAAbstract: The development of the technology for derivation of induced pluripotent stem (iPS cells from human patients and animal models has opened up new pathways to the better understanding of many human diseases, and has created new opportunities for therapeutic approaches. Here, we consider one important neurological disease, Parkinson's, the development of relevant neural cell lines for studying this disease, and the animal models that are available for testing the survival and function of the cells, following transplantation into the central nervous system. Rapid progress has been made recently in the application of protocols for neuroectoderm differentiation and neural patterning of pluripotent stem cells. These developments have resulted in the ability to produce large numbers of dopaminergic neurons with midbrain characteristics for further study. These cells have been shown to be functional in both rodent and nonhuman primate (NHP models of Parkinson's disease. Patient-specific iPS cells and derived dopaminergic neurons have been developed, in particular from patients with genetic causes of Parkinson's disease. For complete modeling of the disease, it is proposed that the introduction of genetic changes into NHP iPS cells, followed by studying the phenotype of the genetic change in cells transplanted into the NHP as host animal, will yield new insights into disease processes not possible with rodent models alone.Keywords: Parkinson's disease, pluripotent cell differentiation, neural cell lines, dopaminergic neurons, cell transplantation, animal models

  20. Import of TAT-Conjugated Propionyl Coenzyme A Carboxylase Using Models of Propionic Acidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, Renata; Majtan, Tomas; Park, Insun; Kraus, Jan P

    2018-03-15

    Propionic acidemia is caused by a deficiency of the enzyme propionyl coenzyme A carboxylase (PCC) located in the mitochondrial matrix. Cell-penetrating peptides, including transactivator of transcription (TAT), offer a potential to deliver a cargo into the mitochondrion. Here, we investigated the delivery of an α 6 β 6 PCC enzyme into mitochondria using the HIV TAT peptide at several levels: into isolated mitochondria, in patient fibroblast cells, and in a mouse model. Results from Western blots and enzyme activity assays confirmed the import of TAT-PCC into mitochondria, as well as into patient fibroblasts, where the colocalization of imported TAT-PCC and mitochondria was also confirmed by confocal fluorescence microscopy. Furthermore, a single-dose intraperitoneal injection into PCC-deficient mice decreased the propionylcarnitine/acetylcarnitine (C3/C2) ratio toward the normal level. These results show that a cell-penetrating peptide can deliver active multimeric enzyme into mitochondria in vitro , in situ , and in vivo and push the size limit of intracellular delivery achieved so far. Our results are promising for other mitochondrion-specific deficiencies. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

  1. A tool to convert CAD models for importation into Geant4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuosalo, C.; Carlsmith, D.; Dasu, S.; Palladino, K.; LUX-ZEPLIN Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The engineering design of a particle detector is usually performed in a Computer Aided Design (CAD) program, and simulation of the detector’s performance can be done with a Geant4-based program. However, transferring the detector design from the CAD program to Geant4 can be laborious and error-prone. SW2GDML is a tool that reads a design in the popular SOLIDWORKS CAD program and outputs Geometry Description Markup Language (GDML), used by Geant4 for importing and exporting detector geometries. Other methods for outputting CAD designs are available, such as the STEP format, and tools exist to convert these formats into GDML. However, these conversion methods produce very large and unwieldy designs composed of tessellated solids that can reduce Geant4 performance. In contrast, SW2GDML produces compact, human-readable GDML that employs standard geometric shapes rather than tessellated solids. This paper will describe the development and current capabilities of SW2GDML and plans for its enhancement. The aim of this tool is to automate importation of detector engineering models into Geant4-based simulation programs to support rapid, iterative cycles of detector design, simulation, and optimization.

  2. A case study of a team-based, quality-focused compensation model for primary care providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Jessica; Hibbard, Judith H; Overton, Valerie

    2014-06-01

    In 2011, Fairview Health Services began replacing their fee-for-service compensation model for primary care providers (PCPs), which included an annual pay-for-performance bonus, with a team-based model designed to improve quality of care, patient experience, and (eventually) cost containment. In-depth interviews and an online survey of PCPs early after implementation of the new model suggest that it quickly changed the way many PCPs practiced. Most PCPs reported a shift in orientation toward quality of care, working more collaboratively with their colleagues and focusing on their full panel of patients. The majority reported that their quality of care had improved because of the model and that their colleagues' quality had to. The comprehensive change did, however, result in lower fee-for-service billing and reductions in PCP satisfaction. While Fairview's compensation model is still a work in progress, their early experiences can provide lessons for other delivery systems seeking to reform PCP compensation.

  3. Hyperspectral Imaging Provides Early Prediction of Random Axial Flap Necrosis in a Preclinical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Michael S; Chappell, Ava G; Giatsidis, Giorgio; Perry, Dylan J; Lujan-Hernandez, Jorge; Haddad, Anthony; Matsumine, Hajime; Orgill, Dennis P; Lalikos, Janice F

    2017-06-01

    Necrosis remains a significant complication in cutaneous flap procedures. Monitoring, and ideally prediction, of vascular compromise in the early postoperative period may allow surgeons to limit the impact of complications by prompt intervention. Hyperspectral imaging could be a reliable, effective, and noninvasive method for predicting flap survival postoperatively. In this preclinical study, the authors demonstrate that hyperspectral imaging is able to correlate early skin perfusion changes and ultimate flap survival in a preclinical model. Thirty-one hairless, immunocompetent, adult male mice were used. Random pattern dorsal skin flaps were elevated and sutured back into place with a silicone barrier. Hyperspectral imaging and digital images were obtained 30 minutes, 24 hours, or 72 hours after flap elevation and before sacrifice on postoperative day 7. Areas of high deoxygenated hemoglobin change (124; 95 percent CI, 118 to 129) seen at 30 minutes after surgery were associated with greater than 50 percent flap necrosis at postoperative day 7. Areas demarcated by high deoxygenated hemoglobin at 30 minutes postoperatively had a statistically significant correlation with areas of macroscopic necrosis on postoperative day 7. Analysis of images obtained at 24 and 72 hours did not show similar changes. These findings suggest that early changes in deoxygenated hemoglobin seen with hyperspectral imaging may predict the region and extent of flap necrosis. Further clinical studies are needed to determine whether hyperspectral imaging is applicable to the clinical setting.

  4. Assistance dogs provide a useful behavioral model to enrich communicative skills of assistance robots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gácsi, Márta; Szakadát, Sára; Miklósi, Adám

    2013-01-01

    These studies are part of a project aiming to reveal relevant aspects of human-dog interactions, which could serve as a model to design successful human-robot interactions. Presently there are no successfully commercialized assistance robots, however, assistance dogs work efficiently as partners for persons with disabilities. In Study 1, we analyzed the cooperation of 32 assistance dog-owner dyads performing a carrying task. We revealed typical behavior sequences and also differences depending on the dyads' experiences and on whether the owner was a wheelchair user. In Study 2, we investigated dogs' responses to unforeseen difficulties during a retrieving task in two contexts. Dogs displayed specific communicative and displacement behaviors, and a strong commitment to execute the insoluble task. Questionnaire data from Study 3 confirmed that these behaviors could successfully attenuate owners' disappointment. Although owners anticipated the technical competence of future assistance robots to be moderate/high, they could not imagine robots as emotional companions, which negatively affected their acceptance ratings of future robotic assistants. We propose that assistance dogs' cooperative behaviors and problem solving strategies should inspire the development of the relevant functions and social behaviors of assistance robots with limited manual and verbal skills.

  5. Planarians as models of cadmium-induced neoplasia provide measurable benchmarks for mechanistic studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voura, Evelyn B; Montalvo, Melissa J; Dela Roca, Kevin T; Fisher, Julia M; Defamie, Virginie; Narala, Swami R; Khokha, Rama; Mulligan, Margaret E; Evans, Colleen A

    2017-08-01

    Bioassays of planarian neoplasia highlight the potential of these organisms as useful standards to assess whether environmental toxins such as cadmium promote tumorigenesis. These studies complement other investigations into the exceptional healing and regeneration of planarians - processes that are driven by a population of active stem cells, or neoblasts, which are likely transformed during planarian tumor growth. Our goal was to determine if planarian tumorigenesis assays are amenable to mechanistic studies of cadmium carcinogenesis. To that end we demonstrate, by examining both counts of cell populations by size, and instances of mitosis, that the activity of the stem cell population can be monitored. We also provide evidence that specific biomodulators can affect the potential of planarian neoplastic growth, in that an inhibitor of metalloproteinases effectively blocked the development of the lesions. From these results, we infer that neoblast activity does respond to cadmium-induced tumor growth, and that metalloproteinases are required for the progression of cancer in the planarian. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Directed evolution of a model primordial enzyme provides insights into the development of the genetic code.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel M Müller

    Full Text Available The contemporary proteinogenic repertoire contains 20 amino acids with diverse functional groups and side chain geometries. Primordial proteins, in contrast, were presumably constructed from a subset of these building blocks. Subsequent expansion of the proteinogenic alphabet would have enhanced their capabilities, fostering the metabolic prowess and organismal fitness of early living systems. While the addition of amino acids bearing innovative functional groups directly enhances the chemical repertoire of proteomes, the inclusion of chemically redundant monomers is difficult to rationalize. Here, we studied how a simplified chorismate mutase evolves upon expanding its amino acid alphabet from nine to potentially 20 letters. Continuous evolution provided an enhanced enzyme variant that has only two point mutations, both of which extend the alphabet and jointly improve protein stability by >4 kcal/mol and catalytic activity tenfold. The same, seemingly innocuous substitutions (Ile→Thr, Leu→Val occurred in several independent evolutionary trajectories. The increase in fitness they confer indicates that building blocks with very similar side chain structures are highly beneficial for fine-tuning protein structure and function.

  7. OPR-PPR, a Computer Program for Assessing Data Importance to Model Predictions Using Linear Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthew J. Tonkin; Claire R. Tiedeman; D. Matthew Ely; and Mary C. Hill

    2007-08-16

    The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one

  8. OPR-PPR, a Computer Program for Assessing Data Importance to Model Predictions Using Linear Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkin, Matthew J.; Tiedeman, Claire; Ely, D. Matthew; Hill, Mary C.

    2007-01-01

    The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one

  9. Overlapping gene expression profiles of model compounds provide opportunities for immunotoxicity screening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baken, Kirsten A.; Pennings, Jeroen L.A.; Jonker, Martijs J.; Schaap, Mirjam M.; Vries, Annemieke de; Steeg, Harry van; Breit, Timo M.; Loveren, Henk van

    2008-01-01

    In order to investigate immunotoxic effects of a set of model compounds in mice, a toxicogenomics approach was combined with information on macroscopical and histopathological effects on spleens and on modulation of immune function. Bis(tri-n-butyltin)oxide (TBTO), cyclosporin A (CsA), and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) were administered to C57BL/6 mice at immunosuppressive dose levels. Acetaminophen (APAP) was included in the study since indications of immunomodulating properties of this compound have appeared in the literature. TBTO exposure caused the most pronounced effect on gene expression and also resulted in the most severe reduction of body weight gain and induction of splenic irregularities. All compounds caused inhibition of cell division in the spleen as shown by microarray analysis as well as by suppression of lymphocyte proliferation after application of a contact sensitizer as demonstrated in an immune function assay that was adapted from the local lymph node assay. The immunotoxicogenomics approach applied in this study thus pointed to immunosuppression through cell cycle arrest as a common mechanism of action of immunotoxicants, including APAP. Genes related to cell division such as Ccna2, Brca1, Birc5, Incenp, and Cdkn1a (p21) were identified as candidate genes to indicate anti-proliferative effects of xenobiotics in immune cells for future screening assays. The results of our experiments also show the value of group wise pathway analysis for detection of more subtle transcriptional effects and the potency of evaluation of effects in the spleen to demonstrate immunotoxicity

  10. The Charrette Design Model Provides a Means to Promote Collaborative Design in Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Webber Steven B.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Higher education is typically compartmentalized by field and expertise level leading to a lack of collaboration across disciplines and reduced interaction among students of the same discipline that possess varying levels of expertise. The divisions between disciplines and expertise levels can be perforated through the use of a concentrated, short-term design problem called a charrette. The charrette is commonly used in architecture and interior design, and applications in other disciplines are possible. The use of the charrette in an educational context provides design students the opportunity to collaborate in teams where members have varying levels of expertise and consult with experts in allied disciplines in preparation for a profession that will expect the same. In the context of a competitive charrette, this study examines the effectiveness of forming teams of design students that possess a diversity of expertise. This study also looks at the effectiveness of integrating input from professional experts in design-allied disciplines (urban planning, architecture, mechanical and electrical engineering and a design-scenario-specific discipline (medicine into the students' design process. Using a chi-square test of goodness-of-fit, it is possible to determine student preferences in terms of the team configurations as well as their preferences on the experts. In this charrette context, the students indicated that the cross-expertise student team make-up had a positive effect for both the more experienced students and the less experienced students. Overall, the students placed high value on the input from experts in design-allied fields for the charrette. They also perceived a preference of input from external experts that had an immediate and practical implication to their design process. This article will also show student work examples as additional evidence of the successful cross-expertise collaboration among the design students and evidence

  11. On the importance of paleoclimate modelling for improving predictions of future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Hargreaves

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.

  12. Applying volumetric weather radar data for rainfall runoff modeling: The importance of error correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Delobbe, L.; Weerts, A.; Reggiani, P.

    2009-04-01

    In the current study half a year of volumetric radar data for the period October 1, 2002 until March 31, 2003 is being analyzed which was sampled at 5 minutes intervals by C-band Doppler radar situated at an elevation of 600 m in the southern Ardennes region, Belgium. During this winter half year most of the rainfall has a stratiform character. Though radar and raingauge will never sample the same amount of rainfall due to differences in sampling strategies, for these stratiform situations differences between both measuring devices become even larger due to the occurrence of a bright band (the point where ice particles start to melt intensifying the radar reflectivity measurement). For these circumstances the radar overestimates the amount of precipitation and because in the Ardennes bright bands occur within 1000 meter from the surface, it's detrimental effects on the performance of the radar can already be observed at relatively close range (e.g. within 50 km). Although the radar is situated at one of the highest points in the region, very close to the radar clutter is a serious problem. As a result both nearby and farther away, using uncorrected radar results in serious errors when estimating the amount of precipitation. This study shows the effect of carefully correcting for these radar errors using volumetric radar data, taking into account the vertical reflectivity profile of the atmosphere, the effects of attenuation and trying to limit the amount of clutter. After applying these correction algorithms, the overall differences between radar and raingauge are much smaller which emphasizes the importance of carefully correcting radar rainfall measurements. The next step is to assess the effect of using uncorrected and corrected radar measurements on rainfall-runoff modeling. The 1597 km2 Ourthe catchment lies within 60 km of the radar. Using a lumped hydrological model serious improvement in simulating observed discharges is found when using corrected radar

  13. Importance-truncated no-core shell model for fermionic many-body systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spies, Helena

    2017-03-15

    The exact solution of quantum mechanical many-body problems is only possible for few particles. Therefore, numerical methods were developed in the fields of quantum physics and quantum chemistry for larger particle numbers. Configuration Interaction (CI) methods or the No-Core Shell Model (NCSM) allow ab initio calculations for light and intermediate-mass nuclei, without resorting to phenomenology. An extension of the NCSM is the Importance-Truncated No-Core Shell Model, which uses an a priori selection of the most important basis states. The importance truncation was first developed and applied in quantum chemistry in the 1970s and latter successfully applied to models of light and intermediate mass nuclei. Other numerical methods for calculations for ultra-cold fermionic many-body systems are the Fixed-Node Diffusion Monte Carlo method (FN-DMC) and the stochastic variational approach with Correlated Gaussian basis functions (CG). There are also such method as the Coupled-Cluster method, Green's Function Monte Carlo (GFMC) method, et cetera, used for calculation of many-body systems. In this thesis, we adopt the IT-NCSM for the calculation of ultra-cold Fermi gases at unitarity. Ultracold gases are dilute, strongly correlated systems, in which the average interparticle distance is much larger than the range of the interaction. Therefore, the detailed radial dependence of the potential is not resolved, and the potential can be replaced by an effective contact interaction. At low energy, s-wave scattering dominates and the interaction can be described by the s-wave scattering length. If the scattering length is small and negative, Cooper-pairs are formed in the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) regime. If the scattering length is small and positive, these Cooper-pairs become strongly bound molecules in a Bose-Einstein-Condensate (BEC). In between (for large scattering lengths) is the unitary limit with universal properties. Calculations of the energy spectra

  14. The importance of shared mental models and shared situation awareness for transforming robots from tools to teammates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ososky, Scott; Schuster, David; Jentsch, Florian; Fiore, Stephen; Shumaker, Randall; Lebiere, Christian; Kurup, Unmesh; Oh, Jean; Stentz, Anthony

    2012-06-01

    Current ground robots are largely employed via tele-operation and provide their operators with useful tools to extend reach, improve sensing, and avoid dangers. To move from robots that are useful as tools to truly synergistic human-robot teaming, however, will require not only greater technical capabilities among robots, but also a better understanding of the ways in which the principles of teamwork can be applied from exclusively human teams to mixed teams of humans and robots. In this respect, a core characteristic that enables successful human teams to coordinate shared tasks is their ability to create, maintain, and act on a shared understanding of the world and the roles of the team and its members in it. The team performance literature clearly points towards two important cornerstones for shared understanding of team members: mental models and situation awareness. These constructs have been investigated as products of teams as well; amongst teams, they are shared mental models and shared situation awareness. Consequently, we are studying how these two constructs can be measured and instantiated in human-robot teams. In this paper, we report results from three related efforts that are investigating process and performance outcomes for human robot teams. Our investigations include: (a) how human mental models of tasks and teams change whether a teammate is human, a service animal, or an advanced automated system; (b) how computer modeling can lead to mental models being instantiated and used in robots; (c) how we can simulate the interactions between human and future robotic teammates on the basis of changes in shared mental models and situation assessment.

  15. Importance of biogeochemical processes in modeling stream chemistry in two watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meixner, Thomas; Brown, Aaron; Bales, Roger C.

    1998-11-01

    Two small (0.22 and 0.48 ha) alpine watersheds in the Sierra Nevada of California were studied during the 1992 and 1993 snowmelt seasons to evaluate the importance of soil properties and processes on chemical concentrations in the discharges from each watershed. Watershed 1 was surveyed as having 26% soil cover, whereas watershed 2 was 10% soil covered. Watershed 2 had greater H+ and nitrogen consumption than watershed 1 but similar cation and sulfate concentrations despite having one fourth the surveyed soil volume per unit area as watershed 1. Daily stream concentrations simulated with the Alpine Hydrochemical Model (AHM) matched the data well, after a systematic model calibration with a subset of the data. We found that the structure of the AHM and the hydrologic parameters developed for the nearby 1.2 km2 Emerald Lake watershed could be applied to these watersheds with only small adjustments; chemical parameters required considerably more adjustment, reflecting a greater degree of chemical versus physical heterogeneity at this scale. Calibration for watershed 2 gave a higher percent base saturation (19 versus 4%) and lower streamversus 10-2.6 atm) than for watershed 1 and three times the soil reactivity (expected) of a field survey. Areas mapped as exposed bedrock in the catchments apparently contributed cations and alkalinity to stream water to a greater extent than did neighboring areas of soil. Areas of exposed bedrock were a larger nitrogen sink than the adjoining areas of soil. The pH and acid-neutralizing capacity of surface runoff in both catchments were less sensitive to changes in atmospheric deposition than at the nearby Emerald Lake watershed. This decreased sensitivity was due to (1) a less pronounced ionic pulse, (2) less retention of sulfate in the soil, and (3) greater nitrate retention.

  16. The SATIRE-S model and why getting solar cycle spectral irradiance trends correct is so important

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William; Haigh, Joanna; Krivova, Natalie; Unruh, Yvonne; Solanki, Sami

    2014-05-01

    There is currently a wide range of potential spectral solar irradiance (SSI) solar cycle (SC) amplitudes suggested by observations and models. Therefore, SSI SC changes are still not fully understood. The magnitude of the SC flux changes has a direct impact upon the temperature and chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere. To contribute to an understanding of the solar-climate connection, it is critical that we, as the solar community, communicate effectively with the climate community, providing uncertainties in SSI data and assessments of possible SSI options. We present the SATIRE-S reconstruction in the context of these SSI datasets. SATIRE-S is a physically based, consistent SSI reconstruction over the last three solar cycles. It shows different SC spectral variability at all wavelengths compared to the NRLSSI model, widely used in climate research. Most-importantly, SC changes in the ultra-violet (UV) can be twice as large in SATIRE-S as NRLSSI. Typically NRLSSI provides a lower limit of SC SSI UV variability. SORCE satellite observations provide SC magnitudes at the upper limit of variability, exceeding that of SATIRE-S by a factor of three at some UV wavelengths. There is currently no way to be certain if any of these three SSI datasets, or others, is correct. We also present the SSI datasets in terms of their impact on stratospheric ozone, within a 2D atmospheric model, as an example of why it is important to get SC changes correct. Using NRLSSI results in the 2D atmospheric model, we see a decrease in ozone concentration at all altitudes from solar maximum to minimum. SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE observations instead show an increase in ozone concentration in the mesosphere. The magnitude of the increase in the mesosphere when using SOLSTICE also depends greatly upon the version of the data, which means that studies using different data versions of SOLSTICE may lead to different conclusions. These results highlight why an accurate understanding of SC SSI

  17. A simple simulation model as a tool to assess alternative health care provider payment reform options in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cashin, Cheryl; Phuong, Nguyen Khanh; Shain, Ryan; Oanh, Tran Thi Mai; Thuy, Nguyen Thi

    2015-01-01

    Vietnam is currently considering a revision of its 2008 Health Insurance Law, including the regulation of provider payment methods. This study uses a simple spreadsheet-based, micro-simulation model to analyse the potential impacts of different provider payment reform scenarios on resource allocation across health care providers in three provinces in Vietnam, as well as on the total expenditure of the provincial branches of the public health insurance agency (Provincial Social Security [PSS]). The results show that currently more than 50% of PSS spending is concentrated at the provincial level with less than half at the district level. There is also a high degree of financial risk on district hospitals with the current fund-holding arrangement. Results of the simulation model show that several alternative scenarios for provider payment reform could improve the current payment system by reducing the high financial risk currently borne by district hospitals without dramatically shifting the current level and distribution of PSS expenditure. The results of the simulation analysis provided an empirical basis for health policy-makers in Vietnam to assess different provider payment reform options and make decisions about new models to support health system objectives.

  18. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  19. Rabbit models as tools for preclinical cardiac electrophysiological safety testing: Importance of repolarization reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baczkó, István; Jost, Norbert; Virág, László; Bősze, Zsuzsanna; Varró, András

    2016-07-01

    It is essential to more reliably assess the pro-arrhythmic liability of compounds in development. Current guidelines for pre-clinical and clinical testing of drug candidates advocate the use of healthy animals/tissues and healthy individuals and focus on the test compound's ability to block the hERG current and prolong cardiac ventricular repolarization. Also, pre-clinical safety tests utilize several species commonly used in cardiac electrophysiological studies. In this review, important species differences in cardiac ventricular repolarizing ion currents are considered, followed by the discussion on electrical remodeling associated with chronic cardiovascular diseases that leads to altered ion channel and transporter expression and densities in pathological settings. We argue that the choice of species strongly influences experimental outcome and extrapolation of results to human clinical settings. We suggest that based on cardiac cellular electrophysiology, the rabbit is a useful species for pharmacological pro-arrhythmic investigations. In addition to healthy animals and tissues, the use of animal models (e.g. those with impaired repolarization reserve) is suggested that more closely resemble subsets of patients exhibiting increased vulnerability towards the development of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluating the importance of characterizing soil structure and horizons in parameterizing a hydrologic process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating the influence of soil structure and horizons into parameterizations of distributed surface water/groundwater models remains a challenge. Often, only a single soil unit is employed, and soil-hydraulic properties are assigned based on textural classification, without evaluating the potential impact of these simplifications. This study uses a distributed physics-based model to assess the influence of soil horizons and structure on effective parameterization. This paper tests the viability of two established and widely used hydrogeologic methods for simulating runoff and variably saturated flow through layered soils: (1) accounting for vertical heterogeneity by combining hydrostratigraphic units with contrasting hydraulic properties into homogeneous, anisotropic units and (2) use of established pedotransfer functions based on soil texture alone to estimate water retention and conductivity, without accounting for the influence of pedon structures and hysteresis. The viability of this latter method for capturing the seasonal transition from runoff-dominated to evapotranspiration-dominated regimes is also tested here. For cases tested here, event-based simulations using simplified vertical heterogeneity did not capture the state-dependent anisotropy and complex combinations of runoff generation mechanisms resulting from permeability contrasts in layered hillslopes with complex topography. Continuous simulations using pedotransfer functions that do not account for the influence of soil structure and hysteresis generally over-predicted runoff, leading to propagation of substantial water balance errors. Analysis suggests that identifying a dominant hydropedological unit provides the most acceptable simplification of subsurface layering and that modified pedotransfer functions with steeper soil-water retention curves might adequately capture the influence of soil structure and hysteresis on hydrologic response in headwater catchments.

  1. Creation of a Collaborative Disaster Preparedness Video for Daycare Providers: Use of the Delphi Model for the Creation of a Comprehensive Disaster Preparedness Video for Daycare Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, Pamela; Spears, Robert; Reeb, Jeffrey; Thompson, Sarah B; Myers, Paul; Burke, Rita V

    2018-02-22

    Eight million American children under the age of 5 attend daycare and more than another 50 million American children are in school or daycare settings. Emergency planning requirements for daycare licensing vary by state. Expert opinions were used to create a disaster preparedness video designed for daycare providers to cover a broad spectrum of scenarios. Various stakeholders (17) devised the outline for an educational pre-disaster video for child daycare providers using the Delphi technique. Fleiss κ values were obtained for consensus data. A 20-minute video was created, addressing the physical, psychological, and legal needs of children during and after a disaster. Viewers completed an anonymous survey to evaluate topic comprehension. A consensus was attempted on all topics, ranging from elements for inclusion to presentation format. The Fleiss κ value of 0.07 was obtained. Fifty-seven of the total 168 video viewers completed the 10-question survey, with comprehension scores ranging from 72% to 100%. Evaluation of caregivers that viewed our video supports understanding of video contents. Ultimately, the technique used to create and disseminate the resources may serve as a template for others providing pre-disaster planning education. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 5).

  2. Investigating Effective Components of Higher Education Marketing and Providing a Marketing Model for Iranian Private Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmaee, Roya Babaee; Nadi, Mohammad Ali; Shahtalebi, Badri

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the effective components of higher education marketing and providing a marketing model for Iranian higher education private sector institutions. Design/methodology/approach: This study is a qualitative research. For identifying the effective components of higher education marketing and…

  3. The Development of Mouse APECED Models Provides New Insight into the Role of AIRE in Immune Regulation

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Lara E.; Bostik, Pavel; Ansari, Aftab A.

    2005-01-01

    Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy candidiasis ectodermal dystrophy is a rare recessive autoimmune disorder caused by a defect in a single gene called AIRE (autoimmune regulator). Characteristics of this disease include a variable combination of autoimmune endocrine tissue destruction, mucocutaneous candidiasis and ectodermal dystrophies. The development of Aire-knockout mice has provided an invaluable model for the st...

  4. On The Importance of A Socio-Culturally Designed Teaching Model in an EFL Writing Classroom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdiyeh Abdollahzadeh

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Writing is a means of articulating ideas, arousing feelings, persuading and convincing other people, but the procedure of writing has become arduous and labyrinthine for Iranian EFL learners. The educational system in Iran is structure-based and it ignores the communicative role of writing, so students' performance in writing wouldn’t be desirable. To tackle the mentioned problem, the present paper develops a scaffolding environment to maximize students writing dexterities through the application of various scaffolding means coined by Tharp and Gallimore (1988 during the stages of Seow's process model. The purpose was to determine the procedure of teacher guidance in a process- oriented situation and trace the scaffolding means which had a pre-eminent role in enhancing students' writing proficiency by observing the class and conducting an interview. To this end, 15 female students within the age range of 15-18 studying in Be’sat Language Institute in Salmas, Iran participated in this study. The results elucidated that students could benefit from the established situation in different ways during the accomplishment of their writing tasks. At the end, the study provided some pedagogical implications for teachers in terms of teaching writing.

  5. Economic and Social Models in Europe and the Importance of Reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Heipertz

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on European economic and social models. It provides a comparative assessment of fiscal and regulatory policies in 17 industrialised countries (the EU15, US and Japan and presents the records of these countries in attaining key economic and social objectives. Social and economic systems that feature efficient public sectors and flexible market structures tend to experience reasonably sustainable public finances, high economic growth, education standards and employment, and well-functioning markets. Anglo-Saxon countries broadly fit this mould, albeit, seemingly, at some cost of income equality. A more pronounced emphasis on welfare state policies and the corresponding relatively high levels of public spending bring benefit to income distribution in the Nordic countries while the resulting inefficiencies in their economies are counterbalanced by flexibility in labour and particularly product markets. Also, a number of reform-minded European countries have improved their fiscal and regulatory policies while significantly enhancing the functioning of markets, fiscal sustainability and economic performance. This was generally attained without jeopardising social objectives. On the other hand, those continental and Mediterranean countries that maintain market inefficiencies and at the same time sustain expensive and inefficient welfare states generally suffer from low growth and employment and less well-functioning markets and face serious risks to their economies’ fiscal sustainability. The findings of this note support calls for the comprehensive reform of fiscal policies, as well as of product and labour markets.

  6. The importance of connexin hemichannels during chondroprogenitor cell differentiation in hydrogel versus microtissue culture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrobback, Karsten; Klein, Travis Jacob; Woodfield, Tim B F

    2015-06-01

    Appropriate selection of scaffold architecture is a key challenge in cartilage tissue engineering. Gap junction-mediated intercellular contacts play important roles in precartilage condensation of mesenchymal cells. However, scaffold architecture could potentially restrict cell-cell communication and differentiation. This is particularly important when choosing the appropriate culture platform as well as scaffold-based strategy for clinical translation, that is, hydrogel or microtissues, for investigating differentiation of chondroprogenitor cells in cartilage tissue engineering. We, therefore, studied the influence of gap junction-mediated cell-cell communication on chondrogenesis of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BM-MSCs) and articular chondrocytes. Expanded human chondrocytes and BM-MSCs were either (re-) differentiated in micromass cell pellets or encapsulated as isolated cells in alginate hydrogels. Samples were treated with and without the gap junction inhibitor 18-α glycyrrhetinic acid (18αGCA). DNA and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and gene expression levels (collagen I/II/X, aggrecan, and connexin 43) were quantified at various time points. Protein localization was determined using immunofluorescence, and adenosine-5'-triphosphate (ATP) was measured in conditioned media. While GAG/DNA was higher in alginate compared with pellets for chondrocytes, there were no differences in chondrogenic gene expression between culture models. Gap junction blocking reduced collagen II and extracellular ATP in all chondrocyte cultures and in BM-MSC hydrogels. However, differentiation capacity was not abolished completely by 18αGCA. Connexin 43 levels were high throughout chondrocyte cultures and peaked only later during BM-MSC differentiation, consistent with the delayed response of BM-MSCs to 18αGCA. Alginate hydrogels and microtissues are equally suited culture platforms for the chondrogenic (re-)differentiation of expanded human articular

  7. Common Sense Model Factors Affecting African Americans' Willingness to Consult a Healthcare Provider Regarding Symptoms of Mild Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Carey E; Dowling, N Maritza; Benton, Susan Flowers; Kaseroff, Ashley; Gunn, Wade; Edwards, Dorothy Farrar

    2016-07-01

    Although at increased risk for developing dementia compared with white patients, older African Americans are diagnosed later in the course of dementia. Using the common sense model (CSM) of illness perception, we sought to clarify processes promoting timely diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) for African American patients. In-person, cross-sectional survey data were obtained from 187 African American (mean age: 60.44 years). Data were collected at social and health-focused community events in three southern Wisconsin cities. The survey represented a compilation of published surveys querying CSM constructs focused on early detection of memory disorders, and willingness to discuss concerns about memory loss with healthcare providers. Derived CSM variables measuring perceived causes, consequences, and controllability of MCI were included in a structural equation model predicting the primary outcome: Willingness to discuss symptoms of MCI with a provider. Two CSM factors influenced willingness to discuss symptoms of MCI with providers: Anticipation of beneficial consequences and perception of low harm associated with an MCI diagnosis predicted participants' willingness to discuss concerns about cognitive changes. No association was found between perceived controllability and causes of MCI, and willingness to discuss symptoms with providers. These data suggest that allaying concerns about the deleterious effects of a diagnosis, and raising awareness of potential benefits, couldinfluence an African American patient's willingness to discuss symptoms of MCI with a provider. The findings offer guidance to designers of culturally congruent MCI education materials, and healthcare providers caring for older African Americans. . Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Modeling Leptospirosis in Trinidad, West Indies: A Waterborne Zoonosis of Increasing Public Health Importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, M. C.; Opadeyi, J.

    2012-12-01

    draining soils, percentage of imperfectly draining soils, percentage of impeded draining soils and mean annual rainfall. These covariables together with socio-economic data were used to set up the GWR models. Local model correlation (R^{2}) was 0.78, higher than the global correlation of 0.58 and there was found to be a clear spatial correlation between covariables and leptospirosis cases. Percentage of draining soils and topography were found to be significant (p<0.01 and 0.00) indicating spatial variability in the influence of these factors on the occurrence of leptospirosis in Trinidad communities. Composition of the soils and their lack of drainage may be an important factor influencing leptospirosis occurrence. Leptospires do not have a waterproof membrane therefore for their survival they must remain submersed in water. Previous studies have found leptospires to be associated with soils of high moisture and organic matter content.

  9. THE POLISH BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR LANGUAGE SERVICE PROVIDERS IN VIEW OF THE PORTER’S FIVE FORCES MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Kowalska, Monika

    2014-01-01

    After the Polish accession to the European Union in 2004, language services have considerably grown in importance. Intensive contacts with foreign companies and institutions coupled with information technology developments have increased the role of English as a linguistic medium of international cooperation. The overall aim of this paper is to examine the Polish business environment for Language Service Providers (LSPs) offering specialized English courses and translation services (EN-PL and...

  10. What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, M. L.; Rajagopalan, K.; Chung, S. H.; Jiang, X.; Harrison, J. H.; Nergui, T.; Guenther, Alex B.; Miller, C.; Reyes, J.; Tague, C. L.; Choate, J. S.; Salathe, E.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-05-16

    Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However

  11. Sworn testimony of the model evidence : Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, G.H.W.; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-01-01

    What is the “best” model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K

  12. Modeling the growth and decline of pathogen effective population size provides insight into epidemic dynamics and drivers of antimicrobial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volz, Erik M; Didelot, Xavier

    2018-02-07

    Non-parametric population genetic modeling provides a simple and flexible approach for studying demographic history and epidemic dynamics using pathogen sequence data. Existing Bayesian approaches are premised on stochastic processes with stationary increments which may provide an unrealistic prior for epidemic histories which feature extended period of exponential growth or decline. We show that non-parametric models defined in terms of the growth rate of the effective population size can provide a more realistic prior for epidemic history. We propose a non-parametric autoregressive model on the growth rate as a prior for effective population size, which corresponds to the dynamics expected under many epidemic situations. We demonstrate the use of this model within a Bayesian phylodynamic inference framework. Our method correctly reconstructs trends of epidemic growth and decline from pathogen genealogies even when genealogical data is sparse and conventional skyline estimators erroneously predict stable population size. We also propose a regression approach for relating growth rates of pathogen effective population size and time-varying variables that may impact the replicative fitness of a pathogen. The model is applied to real data from rabies virus and Staphylococcus aureus epidemics. We find a close correspondence between the estimated growth rates of a lineage of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and population-level prescription rates of β-lactam antibiotics. The new models are implemented in an open source R package called skygrowth which is available at https://github.com/mrc-ide/skygrowth. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  13. [Barriers to the normalization of telemedicine in a healthcare system model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roig, Francesc; Saigí, Francesc

    2011-01-01

    Despite the clear political will to promote telemedicine and the large number of initiatives, the incorporation of this modality in clinical practice remains limited. The objective of this study was to identify the barriers perceived by key professionals who actively participate in the design and implementation of telemedicine in a healthcare system model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts. We performed a qualitative study based on data from semi-structured interviews with 17 key informants belonging to distinct Catalan health organizations. The barriers identified were grouped in four areas: technological, organizational, human and economic. The main barriers identified were changes in the healthcare model caused by telemedicine, problems with strategic alignment, resistance to change in the (re)definition of roles, responsibilities and new skills, and lack of a business model that incorporates telemedicine in the services portfolio to ensure its sustainability. In addition to suitable management of change and of the necessary strategic alignment, the definitive normalization of telemedicine in a mixed healthcare model based on purchasing of healthcare services using providers' contracts requires a clear and stable business model that incorporates this modality in the services portfolio and allows healthcare organizations to obtain reimbursement from the payer. 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. The Development of Mouse APECED Models Provides New Insight into the Role of AIRE in Immune Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Lara E.; Bostik, Pavel; Ansari, Aftab A.

    2005-01-01

    Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy candidiasis ectodermal dystrophy is a rare recessive autoimmune disorder caused by a defect in a single gene called AIRE (autoimmune regulator). Characteristics of this disease include a variable combination of autoimmune endocrine tissue destruction, mucocutaneous candidiasis and ectodermal dystrophies. The development of Aire-knockout mice has provided an invaluable model for the study of this disease. The aim of this review is to briefly highlight the strides made in APECED research using these transgenic murine models, with a focus on known roles of Aire in autoimmunity. The findings thus far are compelling and prompt additional areas of study which are discussed. PMID:16295527

  15. The Development of Mouse APECED Models Provides New Insight into the Role of AIRE in Immune Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara E. Pereira

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy candidiasis ectodermal dystrophy is a rare recessive autoimmune disorder caused by a defect in a single gene called AIRE (autoimmune regulator. Characteristics of this disease include a variable combination of autoimmune endocrine tissue destruction, mucocutaneous candidiasis and ectodermal dystrophies. The development of Aire-knockout mice has provided an invaluable model for the study of this disease. The aim of this review is to briefly highlight the strides made in APECED research using these transgenic murine models, with a focus on known roles of Aire in autoimmunity. The findings thus far are compelling and prompt additional areas of study which are discussed.

  16. AND/OR Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Gogate, Vibhav; Dechter, Rina

    2012-01-01

    The paper introduces AND/OR importance sampling for probabilistic graphical models. In contrast to importance sampling, AND/OR importance sampling caches samples in the AND/OR space and then extracts a new sample mean from the stored samples. We prove that AND/OR importance sampling may have lower variance than importance sampling; thereby providing a theoretical justification for preferring it over importance sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that AND/OR importance sampling is ...

  17. Estimation of Import Demand for Fishery Products in the U.S. Using the Source-Differentiated AIDS Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Xiaojin; Reed, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Fishery product imports by the U.S. have been gradually increasing in recent years. The leading exporting countries include Canada, Chile, China, Ecuador, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A source-differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model and its Error Correction Model (ECM) version are employed to investigate the static and dynamic U.S. import demand for fishery products from the top seven countries using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2012. Long-run and short-run ...

  18. Importance of the surface size distribution of erodible material: an improvement on the Dust Entrainment And Deposition (DEAD) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, M.; Gomes, L.; Tulet, P.; Rezoug, T.

    2012-05-01

    This paper is based on dust aerosol cycle modelling in the atmospheric model ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) coupled with the EXternalised SURFace scheme SURFEX. Its main goal is to create an appropriate mineral dust emission parameterization compatible with the global database of land surface parameters ECOCLIMAP, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) soil type database in SURFEX. An improvement on the Dust Entrainment And Deposition scheme (DEAD) is proposed in this paper by introducing the geographical variation of surface soil size distribution, the Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) formulation of horizontal saltation flux and the Shao et al. (1996) formulation of sandblasting efficiency α. To show the importance of the modifications introduced in the DEAD, both sensitivity and comparative studies are conducted in 0 dimensions (0-D) and then in 3 dimensions (3-D) between the old DEAD and the new DEAD. The results of the 0-D simulations indicate that the revised DEAD scheme represents the dust source emission better, particularly in the Bodélé depression, and provides a reasonable friction threshold velocity. In 3-D simulations, small differences are found between the DEAD and the revised DEAD for the simulated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) compared with the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) photometer measurements available in the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) databases. For the surface concentration, a remarkable improvement is noted for the revised DEAD scheme.

  19. Status study of knowledge management in universities and to provide a suitable model (Case Study: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahangir, Mustafa; Asadi, M. Mahdi

    2010-05-01

    During the past two decades to increase the volume of information and knowledge in organizations and the necessity of effective use of it in Organizational decisions is led to the emerging phenomenon of knowledge management. Knowledge management, including all the ways the organization manage their knowledge assets that include how collection, storage, transfer, deployment, update and create knowledge. Universities that type of knowledge based organizations are important sources of knowledge and therefore can be considered as strategic in universities and higher education centers of knowledge management will be more important. In this research The status of knowledge management in universities and a case study of Mashhad University are checked are the problems and challenges are identified and finally as for the features, requirements and conditions to implement a model for universities and deployment of knowledge management is presented in it.Therefore, basic research problem is: the status of knowledge management in universities and the case Mashhad University is how and which model for implementation and deployment of knowledge management is recommended? Importance and necessity of research topicare: Knowledge management experts in the emergence of knowledge management consider four major factors:1) passing the material tangible assets dominated era to the domination of capital in non-palpable, nonetheless organizations. 2) increase the extraordinary volume of information, the electronic storage and increased access to information 3) risk to the story of institutional knowledge due to retirement or exit from the crew 4) become more specialized activities in the organization 5) the emergence of knowledge based organizations and incidence of the most important capital is its knowledge. Knowledge management solutions focus on the entire system, including organization, human resources and technology in the take-the most important tools for solving problems and

  20. Influence of biodiesel blending on physicochemical properties and importance of mathematical model for predicting the properties of biodiesel blend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakil, M.A.; Kalam, M.A.; Masjuki, H.H.; Atabani, A.E.; Rizwanul Fattah, I.M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Short identification of selected biodiesel feedstock. • Review of physicochemical properties for blended biodiesel. • Mathematical model for predicting properties of various biodiesel blends. - Abstract: The growing demand for green world serves as one of the most significant challenges of modernization. Requirements like largest usage of energy for modern society as well as demand for friendly milieu create a deep concern in field of research. Biofuels are placed at the peak of the research arena for their underlying benefits as mentioned by multiple researches. Out of a number of vegetable oils, only a few are used commercially for biodiesel production. Due to various limitations of edible oil, non-edible oils are becoming a profitable choice. Till today, very little percentage of biodiesel is used successfully in engine. The research is still continuing for improving the biodiesel usage level. Recently, it is found that the blended biodiesel from more than one feedstock provides better performance in engine. This paper reviews the physicochemical properties of different biodiesel blends obtained from various feedstocks with a view to properly understand the fuel quality. Moreover, a short description of each feedstock is given along with graphical presentation of important properties for various blend percentages from B0 to B100. Finally, mathematical model is formed for predicting various properties of biodiesel blend with the help of different research data by using polynomial curve fitting method. The results obtained from a number of literature based on this work shows that the heating value of biodiesel is about 11% lower than diesel except coconut (14.5% lower) whereas kinematic viscosity is in the range of 4–5.4 mm 2 /s. Flash point of all biodiesels are more than 150 °C, except neem and coconut. Cold flow properties of calophyllum, palm, jatropha, moringa are inferior to others. This would help to determine important properties of

  1. Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

    2015-01-01

    Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

  2. Fourier power, subjective distance and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Daniel Lescroart

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA, Retrosplenial Complex (RSC, and the Occipital Place Area (OPA. It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1 2D features related to Fourier power; (2 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3 abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1,386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue.

  3. Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  4. A Qualitative Examination of the Importance of Female Role Models in Investment Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Sealy, Ruth

    2009-01-01

    A number of practitioner surveys across a range of industries have cited the lack of senior female role models as a barrier to career progression. There is very little academic literature to explain this at a senior organizational level. An initial review of the extant role model literature led to the inclusion of two further related areas – organizational demographics, as a contextual factor affecting the availability of role models, and work identity development as a link bet...

  5. Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series - importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, Sandra; Vis, Marc J. P.; Knight, Rodney R.; Seibert, Jan

    2017-11-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV - Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning - model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  6. Integrating retention soil filters into urban hydrologic models - Relevant processes and important parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann-Machnik, Anna; Meyer, Daniel; Waldhoff, Axel; Fuchs, Stephan; Dittmer, Ulrich

    2018-04-01

    Retention Soil Filters (RSFs), a form of vertical flow constructed wetlands specifically designed for combined sewer overflow (CSO) treatment, have proven to be an effective tool to mitigate negative impacts of CSOs on receiving water bodies. Long-term hydrologic simulations are used to predict the emissions from urban drainage systems during planning of stormwater management measures. So far no universally accepted model for RSF simulation exists. When simulating hydraulics and water quality in RSFs, an appropriate level of detail must be chosen for reasonable balancing between model complexity and model handling, considering the model input's level of uncertainty. The most crucial parameters determining the resultant uncertainties of the integrated sewer system and filter bed model were identified by evaluating a virtual drainage system with a Retention Soil Filter for CSO treatment. To determine reasonable parameter ranges for RSF simulations, data of 207 events from six full-scale RSF plants in Germany were analyzed. Data evaluation shows that even though different plants with varying loading and operation modes were examined, a simple model is sufficient to assess relevant suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and NH4 emissions from RSFs. Two conceptual RSF models with different degrees of complexity were assessed. These models were developed based on evaluation of data from full scale RSF plants and column experiments. Incorporated model processes are ammonium adsorption in the filter layer and degradation during subsequent dry weather period, filtration of SS and particulate COD (XCOD) to a constant background concentration and removal of solute COD (SCOD) by a constant removal rate during filter passage as well as sedimentation of SS and XCOD in the filter overflow. XCOD, SS and ammonium loads as well as ammonium concentration peaks are discharged primarily via RSF overflow not passing through the filter bed. Uncertainties of the integrated

  7. A Mathematical Model of Metabolism and Regulation Provides a Systems-Level View of How Escherichia coli Responds to Oxygen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael eEderer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The efficient redesign of bacteria for biotechnological purposes, such as biofuel production, waste disposal or specific biocatalytic functions, requires a quantitative systems-level understanding of energy supply, carbon and redox metabolism. The measurement of transcript levels, metabolite concentrations and metabolic fluxes per se gives an incomplete picture. An appreciation of the interdependencies between the different measurement values is essential for systems-level understanding. Mathematical modeling has the potential to provide a coherent and quantitative description of the interplay between gene expression, metabolite concentrations and metabolic fluxes. Escherichia coli undergoes major adaptations in central metabolism when the availability of oxygen changes. Thus, an integrated description of the oxygen response provides a benchmark of our understanding of carbon, energy and redox metabolism. We present the first comprehensive model of the central metabolism of E. coli that describes steady-state metabolism at different levels of oxygen availability. Variables of the model are metabolite concentrations, gene expression levels, transcription factor activities, metabolic fluxes and biomass concentration. We analyze the model with respect to the production capabilities of central metabolism of E. coli. In particular, we predict how precursor and biomass concentration are affected by product formation.

  8. Emerging Business Models in Education Provisioning: A Case Study on Providing Learning Support as Education-as-a-Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loina Prifti

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to give a deeper understanding on emerging business models in the context of education. Industry 4.0/the Industrial Internet in general and especially recent advances in cloud computing enable a new kind of service offering in the education sector and lead to new business models for education: Education-as-a-Service (EaaS. Within EaaS, learning, and teaching contents are delivered as services. By combining a literature review with a qualitative case study, this paper makes a three-fold contribution to the field of business models in education: First, we provide a theoretical definition for a common understanding of EaaS. Second, we present the state-of-the-art research on this new paradigm. Third, in the case study we describe a “best practices” business model of an existing EaaS provider. These insights build a theoretical foundation for further research in this area. The paper concludes with a research agenda for further research in this emerging field.

  9. A Hybrid Artificial Reputation Model Involving Interaction Trust, Witness Information and the Trust Model to Calculate the Trust Value of Service Providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurdeep Singh Ransi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Agent interaction in a community, such as the online buyer-seller scenario, is often uncertain, as when an agent comes in contact with other agents they initially know nothing about each other. Currently, many reputation models are developed that help service consumers select better service providers. Reputation models also help agents to make a decision on who they should trust and transact with in the future. These reputation models are either built on interaction trust that involves direct experience as a source of information or they are built upon witness information also known as word-of-mouth that involves the reports provided by others. Neither the interaction trust nor the witness information models alone succeed in such uncertain interactions. In this paper we propose a hybrid reputation model involving both interaction trust and witness information to address the shortcomings of existing reputation models when taken separately. A sample simulation is built to setup buyer-seller services and uncertain interactions. Experiments reveal that the hybrid approach leads to better selection of trustworthy agents where consumers select more reputable service providers, eventually helping consumers obtain more gains. Furthermore, the trust model developed is used in calculating trust values of service providers.

  10. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

    2011-01-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

  11. Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

  12. Importance of hydrological parameters in contaminant transport modeling in a terrestrial environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuduki, Katsunori; Matsunaga, Takeshi

    2007-01-01

    A grid type multi-layered distributed parameter model for calculating discharge in a watershed was described. Model verification with our field observation resulted in different sets of hydrological parameter values, all of which reproduced the observed discharge. The effect of those varied hydrological parameters on contaminant transport calculation was examined and discussed by simulation of event water transfer. (author)

  13. Biological mechanisms of normal tissue damage : Importance for the design of NTCP models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trott, Klaus-Ruediger; Doerr, Wolfgang; Facoetti, Angelica; Hopewell, John; Langendijk, Johannes; van Luijk, Peter; Ottolenghi, Andrea; Smyth, Vere

    2012-01-01

    The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models that are currently being proposed for estimation of risk of harm following radiotherapy are mainly based on simplified empirical models, consisting of dose,distribution parameters, possibly combined with clinical or other treatment-related

  14. On the importance of observational data properties when assessing regional climate model performance of extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of climate studies addressing changes in extreme precipitation. A common step in these studies involves the assessment of the climate model performance. This is often measured by comparing climate model output with observational data. In t...

  15. Modeling the Encephalopathy of Prematurity in Animals: The Important Role of Translational Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah C. Kinney

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Translational research in preterm brain injury depends upon the delineation of the human neuropathology in order that animal models faithfully reiterate it, thereby ensuring direct relevance to the human condition. The major substrate of human preterm brain injury is the encephalopathy of prematurity that is characterized by gray and white matter lesions reflecting combined acquired insults, altered developmental trajectories, and reparative phenomena. Here we highlight the key features of human preterm brain development and the encephalopathy of prematurity that are critical for modeling in animals. The complete mimicry of the complex human neuropathology is difficult in animal models. Many models focus upon mechanisms related to a specific feature, for example, loss of premyelinating oligodendrocytes in the cerebral white matter. Nevertheless, animal models that simultaneously address oligodendrocyte, neuronal, and axonal injury carry the potential to decipher shared mechanisms and synergistic treatments to ameliorate the global consequences of the encephalopathy of prematurity.

  16. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Robert E. Keane; Ross A. Bradstock; Ian D. Davies; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; Kimberley A. Logan; Russell A. Parsons

    2009-01-01

    The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFE, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEMLAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets...

  17. On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

  18. The Importance of Pressure Sampling Frequency in Models for Determination of Critical Wave Loadingson Monolithic Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Meinert, Palle

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses the influence of wave load sampling frequency on calculated sliding distance in an overall stability analysis of a monolithic caisson. It is demonstrated by a specific example of caisson design that for this kind of analyses the sampling frequency in a small scale model could...... be as low as 100 Hz in model scale. However, for design of structure elements like the wave wall on the top of a caisson the wave load sampling frequency must be much higher, in the order of 1000 Hz in the model. Elastic-plastic deformations of foundation and structure were not included in the analysis....

  19. Markov Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) Model to Detect Financial Crisis in Indonesia Based on Import and Export Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Susanti, Yuliana; Rahma Dwi, Sisca

    2017-06-01

    A country is said to be a crisis when the financial system is experiencing a disruption that affects systems that can not function efficiently. The performance efficiency of macroeconomic indicators especially in imports and exports can be used to detect the financial crisis in Indonesia. Based on the import and export indicators from 1987 to 2015, the movement of these indicators can be modelled using SWARCH three states. The results showed that SWARCH (3,1) model was able to detect the crisis that occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. Using this model, it can be concluded that Indonesia is prone to financial crisis in 2016.

  20. The SSI TOOLBOX Source Term Model SOSIM - Screening for important radionuclides and parameter sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila Moreno, R.; Barrdahl, R.; Haegg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The main objective of the present study was to carry out a screening and a sensitivity analysis of the SSI TOOLBOX source term model SOSIM. This model is a part of the SSI TOOLBOX for radiological impact assessment of the Swedish disposal concept for high-level waste KBS-3. The outputs of interest for this purpose were: the total released fraction, the time of total release, the time and value of maximum release rate, the dose rates after direct releases of the biosphere. The source term equations were derived and simple equations and methods were proposed for calculation of these. A literature survey has been performed in order to determine a characteristic variation range and a nominal value for each model parameter. In order to reduce the model uncertainties the authors recommend a change in the initial boundary condition for solution of the diffusion equation for highly soluble nuclides. 13 refs

  1. Critical importance of stimulus unawareness for the production of subliminal psychodynamic activation effects. An attributional model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornstein, R F

    1992-02-01

    This paper describes a new theoretical model of subliminal psychodynamic activation (SPA) effects. The model conceptualizes subliminal-supraliminal differences in SPA effects as being due to differences in subjects' attributions for the changes in anxiety level that are produced by subliminal versus supraliminal SPA stimuli. Changes in anxiety level produced by supraliminal SPA stimuli can be attributed by subjects to the experimental procedures, diminishing the impact of these messages on subjects' responses. In contrast, subjects cannot attribute changes in anxiety level produced by subliminal SPA stimuli to the experimental procedures. Therefore, no "discounting" (i.e., situational) attributions for subliminally induced changes in anxiety levels are available to subjects, and subliminal SPA messages produce significantly stronger effects on responding than do supraliminal SPA messages. The attributional model of SPA effects is discussed in the context of other long-term research programs investigating subliminal phenomena. The implications of this model for clinical treatment and empirical research utilizing the SPA paradigm are discussed.

  2. The importance of human population characteristics in modeling Aedes aegypti distributions and assessing risk of mosquito-borne infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obenauer, Julie F; Andrew Joyner, T; Harris, Joseph B

    2017-01-01

    The mosquito Aedes aegypti has long been a vector for human illness in the Southeastern United States. In the past, it has been responsible for outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and yellow fever and, very recently, the Zika virus that has been introduced to the region. Multiple studies have modeled the geographic distribution of Ae . aegypti as a function of climate factors; however, this ignores the importance of humans to the anthropophilic biter. Furthermore, Ae . aegypti thrives in areas where humans have created standing water sites, such as water storage containers and trash. As models are developed to examine the potential impact of climate change, it becomes increasingly important to include the most comprehensive set of predictors possible. This study uses Maxent, a species distribution model, to evaluate the effects of adding poverty and population density to climate-only models. Performance was evaluated through model fit statistics, such as AUC, omission, and commission, as well as individual variable contributions and response curves. Models which included both population density and poverty exhibited better predictive power and produced more precise distribution maps. Furthermore, the two human population characteristics accounted for much of the model contribution-more so than climate variables. Modeling mosquito distributions without accounting for their dependence on local human populations may miss factors that are very important to niche realization and subsequent risk of infection for humans. Further research is needed to determine if additional human characteristics should be evaluated for model inclusion.

  3. Management modelling behaviour: An important prerequisite for the implementation of business ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. van Zyl

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Researchers agree that ethics and ethical behaviour have become two of the most important topics of the new millennium. Reasons for this can include changing business conditions as well as the growing public demand for quality services, reasonable prices and honest treatment. Furthermore, the present wave of corruption in South African business makes it important to focus on management-related factors that seem to influence employees’ decisions to behave ethically at work. These phenomena will be used as a basis to make practical suggestions on how to improve the situation.

  4. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  5. Applying Regression Models with Mixed Frequency Data in Modeling and Prediction of Iran's Wheat Import Value (Generalized OLS-based ARDL Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mitra jalerajabi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Due to the importance of the import management, this study applies generalized ARDL approach to estimate MIDAS regression for wheat import value and to compare the accuracy of forecasts with those competed by the regression with adjusted data model. Mixed frequency sampling models aim to extract information with high frequency indicators so that independent variables with lower frequencies are modeled and foorcasted. Due to a more precise identification of the relationships among the variables, more accurate prediction is expected. Based on the results of both estimated regression with adjusted frequency models and MIDAS for the years 1978-2003 as a training period, wheat import value with internal products and exchange rate was positively related, while the relative price variable had an adverse relation with the Iran's wheat import value. Based on the results from the conventional statistics such as RMSE, MAD, MAPE and the statistical significance, MIDAS models using data sets of annual wheat import value, internal products, relative price and seasonal exchange rate significantly improves prediction of annual wheat import value for the years2004-2008 as a testing period. Hence, it is recommended that applying prediction approaches with mixed data improves modeling and prediction of agricultural import value, especially for strategic import products.

  6. A review of successful aging models: Proposing proactive coping as an important additional strategy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwehand, C.; Ridder, D.T.D. de; Bensing, J.

    2007-01-01

    Successful aging is an important concept, and one that has been the subject of much research. During the last 15 years, the emphasis of this research has shifted from formulating criteria for successful aging to describing the processes involved in successful aging. The main purpose of the present

  7. A review of successful aging models: proposing proactive coping as an important additional strategy.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwehand, C.; Ridder, D.T.D. de; Bensing, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    Successful aging is an important concept, and one that has been the subject of much research. During the last 15 years, the emphasis of this research has shifted from formulating criteria for successful aging to describing the processes involved in successful aging. The main purpose of the present

  8. On the importance of aerosol nitrate over Europe : data analysis and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaap, M.

    2003-01-01

    The central theme of this thesis is the nitrate content of aerosols (or particulate matter (PM)). Aerosols play an important role in the climate system by scattering and/or absorbing solar radiation. In the last decades research has been devoted to quantify the radiative forcing of aerosols

  9. A new modeling approach estimates the relative importance of different community assembly processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Plas, Fons; Janzen, Thijs; Ordonez, Alejandro; Fokkema, Wimke; Reinders, Josephine; Etienne, Rampal S.; Olff, Han

    The relative importance of niche-based (e.g., competitive or stress-based) and stochastic (e.g., random dispersal) processes in structuring ecological communities is frequently analyzed by studying trait distributions of co-occurring species. While filtering processes, such as the exclusion of

  10. Mechanical modelling quantifies the functional importance of outer tissue layers during root elongation and bending

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyson, Rosemary J; Vizcay-Barrena, Gema; Band, Leah R; Fernandes, Anwesha N; French, Andrew P; Fozard, John A; Hodgman, T Charlie; Kenobi, Kim; Pridmore, Tony P; Stout, Michael; Wells, Darren M; Wilson, Michael H; Bennett, Malcolm J; Jensen, Oliver E

    2014-01-01

    Root elongation and bending require the coordinated expansion of multiple cells of different types. These processes are regulated by the action of hormones that can target distinct cell layers. We use a mathematical model to characterise the influence of the biomechanical properties of individual cell walls on the properties of the whole tissue. Taking a simple constitutive model at the cell scale which characterises cell walls via yield and extensibility parameters, we derive the analogous tissue-level model to describe elongation and bending. To accurately parameterise the model, we take detailed measurements of cell turgor, cell geometries and wall thicknesses. The model demonstrates how cell properties and shapes contribute to tissue-level extensibility and yield. Exploiting the highly organised structure of the elongation zone (EZ) of the Arabidopsis root, we quantify the contributions of different cell layers, using the measured parameters. We show how distributions of material and geometric properties across the root cross-section contribute to the generation of curvature, and relate the angle of a gravitropic bend to the magnitude and duration of asymmetric wall softening. We quantify the geometric factors which lead to the predominant contribution of the outer cell files in driving root elongation and bending. PMID:24641449

  11. The iconographic model of the Minerva from Collippo and its historic importance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgílio Hipólito Correia

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A statue head representing Minerva from the ancient Collippo (S. Sebastião do Freixo, Batalha is studied and its iconographic model is identified in a similar piece from the temple of Apollo Sosianus in Rome; other pieces of the same model are identified.It is proposed that this piece represents a remain of an intervention in the forum of the ancient town probably dating from the Claudio‑neronian period and its relation to similar processes occurring in the capital of the province of Lusitania is discussed.http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/2183-1718_66_16

  12. Importance of metabolism variations in a model of extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habran, S; Desaive, T; Morimont, Ph; Lambermont, B; Dauby, P C

    2016-08-01

    Extracorporeal CO2 Removal device is used in clinics when a patient suffers from a pulmonary insufficiency like Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and allows to decarboxylate blood externally. In this work, a model of the respiratory system coupled with such a device is proposed to analyze the decrease of CO2 partial pressure in blood. To validate the model, some parameters are estimated thanks to experimental data. Metabolism is a crucial parameter and we show that its time evolution must be taken into account in order to have correct CO2 partial pressure simulations in arteries and in veins.

  13. Can oral vitamin D prevent the cardiovascular diseases among migrants in Australia? Provider perspective using Markov modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruwanpathirana, Thilanga; Owen, Alice; Renzaho, Andre M N; Zomer, Ella; Gambhir, Manoj; Reid, Christopher M

    2015-06-01

    The study was designed to model the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of oral Vitamin D supplementation as a primary prevention strategy for cardiovascular disease among a migrant population in Australia. It was carried out in the Community Health Service, Kensington, Melbourne. Best-case scenario analysis using a Markov model was employed to look at the health care providers' perspective. Adult migrants who were vitamin D deficient and free from cardiovascular disease visiting the medical centre at least once during the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 were included in the study. The blood pressure-lowering effect of vitamin D was taken from a published meta-analysis and applied in the Framingham 10 year cardiovascular risk algorithm (with and without oral vitamin D supplements) to generate the probabilities of cardiovascular events. A Markov decision model was used to estimate the provider costs associated with the events and treatments. Uncertainties were derived by Monte Carlo simulation. Vitamin D oral supplementation (1000 IU/day) for 10 years could potentially prevent 31 (interquartile range (IQR) 26 to 37) non-fatal and 11 (IQR 10 to 15) fatal cardiovascular events in a migrant population of 10,000 assuming 100% compliance. The provider perspective incremental cost effectiveness per year of life saved was AU$3,992 (IQR 583 to 8558). This study suggests subsidised supplementation of oral vitamin D may be a cost effective intervention to reduce non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk migrant populations. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  14. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  15. NOAA People Empowered Products (PeEP): Combining social media with scientific models to provide eye-witness confirmed products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codrescu, S.; Green, J. C.; Redmon, R. J.; Minor, K.; Denig, W. F.; Kihn, E. A.

    2013-12-01

    NOAA products and alerts rely on combinations of models and data to provide the public with information regarding space and terrestrial weather phenomena and hazards. This operational paradigm, while effective, neglects an abundant free source of measurements: millions of eyewitnesses viewing weather events. We demonstrate the capabilities of a prototype People Empowered Product (PeEP) that combines the OVATION prime auroral model running at the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center with Twitter reports of observable aurora. We introduce an algorithm for scoring Tweets based on keywords to improve the signal to noise of this dynamic data source. We use the location of the aurora derived from this new database of crowd sourced observations to validate the OVATION model for use in auroral forecasting. The combined product displays the model aurora in real time with markers showing the location and text of tweets from people actually observing the aurora. We discuss how the application might be extended to other space weather products such as radiation related satellite anomalies.

  16. DIAGNOSIS IMPORTANCE OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL AGROFORESTAL IN PEASANT COMMUNITIES OF SIERRA DE HUAUTLA

    OpenAIRE

    Miguel Uribe-Gómez; Artemio Cruz-León; Dionicio Juárez-Ramón; Alejandro Lara-Bueno; José L. Romo-Lozano; Ramón Valdivia-Alcalá; Marcos Portillo-Vázquez

    2015-01-01

    Family agricultural is socioeconomically important in rural areas, but in Mexico, from the 80's this production system presents social stagnation. This type of agriculture presents a dynamic reality in the interests of each producer and limiting access to factors of production (land, labor and capital). In this investigation a methodology for analysis and diagnosis of production systems in rural areas, in two communities in the Country Sierra de Huautla Tepalcingo, Morelos, Mexico was applied...

  17. IMPORTANCE OF TEMPERATURE IN MODELLING PCB BIOACCUMULATION IN THE LAKE MICHIGAN FOOD WEB

    Science.gov (United States)

    In most food web models, the exposure temperature of a food web is typically defined using a single spatial compartment. This essentially assumes that the predator and prey are exposed to the same temperature. However, in a large water body such as Lake Michigan, due to the spati...

  18. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean ec...

  19. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  20. The importance of data quality for generating reliable distribution models for rare, elusive, and cryptic species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith B. Aubry; Catherine M. Raley; Kevin S. McKelvey

    2017-01-01

    The availability of spatially referenced environmental data and species occurrence records in online databases enable practitioners to easily generate species distribution models (SDMs) for a broad array of taxa. Such databases often include occurrence records of unknown reliability, yet little information is available on the influence of data quality on SDMs generated...

  1. A Critical Subset Model Provides a Conceptual Basis for the High Antiviral Activity of Major HIV Drugs**

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Lin; Rabi, S. Alireza; Sedaghat, Ahmad R.; Shan, Liang; Lai, Jun; Xing, Sifei; Siliciano, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    Control of HIV-1 replication was first achieved with regimens that included a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a protease inhibitor (PI); however, an explanation for the high antiviral activity of these drugs has been lacking. Indeed, conventional pharmacodynamic measures like IC50 (drug concentration causing 50% inhibition) do not differentiate NNRTIs and PIs from less active nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Drug inhibitory potential depends on the slope of the dose-response curve (m), which represents how inhibition increases as a function of increasing drug concentration and is related to the Hill coefficient, a measure of intramolecular cooperativity in ligand binding to a multivalent receptor. Although NNRTIs and PIs bind univalent targets, they unexpectedly exhibit cooperative dose-response curves (m > 1). We show that this cooperative inhibition can be explained by a model in which infectivity requires participation of multiple copies of a drug target in an individual life cycle stage. A critical subset of these target molecules must be in the unbound state. Consistent with experimental observations, this model predicts m > 1 for NNRTIs and PIs and m = 1 in situations where a single drug target/virus mediates a step in the life cycle, as is the case with NRTIs and integrase strand transfer inhibitors. This model was tested experimentally by modulating the number of functional drug targets per virus, and dose-response curves for modulated virus populations fit model predictions. This model explains the high antiviral activity of two drug classes important for successful HIV-1 treatment and defines a characteristic of good targets for antiviral drugs in general, namely, intermolecular cooperativity. PMID:21753122

  2. The Importance of Representing Certain Key Vegetation Canopy Processes Explicitly in a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoly, A.; Boone, A. A.; Martin, E.; Samuelsson, P.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface models are moving to more detailed vegetation canopy descriptions in order to better represent certain key processes, such as Carbon dynamics and snowpack evolution. Since such models are usually applied within coupled numerical weather prediction or spatially distributed hydrological models, these improvements must strike a balance between computational cost and complexity. The consequences of simplified or composite canopy approaches can be manifested in terms of increased errors with respect to soil temperatures, estimates of the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes or snow canopy interception and melt. Vegetated areas and particularly forests are modeled in a quite simplified manner in the ISBA land surface model. However, continuous developments of surface processes now require a more accurate description of the canopy. A new version of the the model now includes a multi energy balance (MEB) option to explicitly represent the canopy and the forest floor. It will be shown that certain newly included processes such as the shading effect of the vegetation, the explicit heat capacity of the canopy, and the insulating effect of the forest floor turn out to be essential. A detailed study has been done for four French forested sites. It was found that the MEB option significantly improves the ground heat flux (RMSE decrease from 50W/m2 to 10W/m2 on average) and soil temperatures when compared against measurements. Also the sensible heat flux calculation was improved primarily owing to a better phasing with the solar insulation owing to a lower vegetation heat capacity. However, the total latent heat flux is less modified compared to the classical ISBA simulation since it is more related to water uptake and the formulation of the stomatal resistance (which are unchanged). Next, a benchmark over 40 Fluxnet sites (116 cumulated years) was performed and compared with results from the default composite soil-vegetation version of ISBA. The results show

  3. Assessing Sexual Dicromatism: The Importance of Proper Parameterization in Tetrachromatic Visual Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre-Paul Bitton

    Full Text Available Perceptual models of animal vision have greatly contributed to our understanding of animal-animal and plant-animal communication. The receptor-noise model of color contrasts has been central to this research as it quantifies the difference between two colors for any visual system of interest. However, if the properties of the visual system are unknown, assumptions regarding parameter values must be made, generally with unknown consequences. In this study, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the receptor-noise model using avian visual system parameters to systematically investigate the influence of variation in light environment, photoreceptor sensitivities, photoreceptor densities, and light transmission properties of the ocular media and the oil droplets. We calculated the chromatic contrast of 15 plumage patches to quantify a dichromatism score for 70 species of Galliformes, a group of birds that display a wide range of sexual dimorphism. We found that the photoreceptor densities and the wavelength of maximum sensitivity of the short-wavelength-sensitive photoreceptor 1 (SWS1 can change dichromatism scores by 50% to 100%. In contrast, the light environment, transmission properties of the oil droplets, transmission properties of the ocular media, and the peak sensitivities of the cone photoreceptors had a smaller impact on the scores. By investigating the effect of varying two or more parameters simultaneously, we further demonstrate that improper parameterization could lead to differences between calculated and actual contrasts of more than 650%. Our findings demonstrate that improper parameterization of tetrachromatic visual models can have very large effects on measures of dichromatism scores, potentially leading to erroneous inferences. We urge more complete characterization of avian retinal properties and recommend that researchers either determine whether their species of interest possess an ultraviolet or near-ultraviolet sensitive SWS1

  4. Use in practice of importance sampling for repeated MCMC for Poisson models : IS for repeated MCMC for Poisson models

    OpenAIRE

    Gajda, Dorota; Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal; Rousseau, Judith; Mengersen, Kerrie,; Nur, Darfiana

    2010-01-01

    International audience; Abstract: The Importance Sampling method is used as an alternative approach to MCMC in repeated Bayesian estimations. In the particular context of numerous data sets, MCMC algorithms have to be called on several times which may become computationally expensive. Since Importance Sampling requires a sample from a posteriodistribution, our idea is to use MCMC to generate only a certain number of Markov chains and use them later in the subsequent IS estimations. For each I...

  5. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2016-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms, violence exposure, and sociodemographic risk factors predict school-aged anxiety symptoms. This longitudinal, prospective study was conducted in a representative birth cohort (n=1109). Structural equation modeling was used to examine hypothesized associations between risk factors measured in toddlerhood/preschool (age=3.0 years) and anxiety symptoms measured in kindergarten (age=6.0 years) and second grade (age= 8.0 years). Early child risk factors (anxiety symptoms and temperament) emerged as the most robust predictor for both parent-and child-reported anxiety outcomes and mediated the effects of maternal and family risk factors. Implications for early intervention and prevention studies are discussed. PMID:21153696

  6. On determining important aspects of mathematical models: Application to problems in physics and chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabitz, Herschel

    1987-01-01

    The use of parametric and functional gradient sensitivity analysis techniques is considered for models described by partial differential equations. By interchanging appropriate dependent and independent variables, questions of inverse sensitivity may be addressed to gain insight into the inversion of observational data for parameter and function identification in mathematical models. It may be argued that the presence of a subset of dominantly strong coupled dependent variables will result in the overall system sensitivity behavior collapsing into a simple set of scaling and self similarity relations amongst elements of the entire matrix of sensitivity coefficients. These general tools are generic in nature, but herein their application to problems arising in selected areas of physics and chemistry is presented.

  7. Importance of Lorentz structure in the parton model: Target mass corrections, transverse momentum dependence, positivity bounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Alesio, U.; Leader, E.; Murgia, F.

    2010-01-01

    We show that respecting the underlying Lorentz structure in the parton model has very strong consequences. Failure to insist on the correct Lorentz covariance is responsible for the existence of contradictory results in the literature for the polarized structure function g 2 (x), whereas with the correct imposition we are able to derive the Wandzura-Wilczek relation for g 2 (x) and the target-mass corrections for polarized deep inelastic scattering without recourse to the operator product expansion. We comment briefly on the problem of threshold behavior in the presence of target-mass corrections. Careful attention to the Lorentz structure has also profound implications for the structure of the transverse momentum dependent parton densities often used in parton model treatments of hadron production, allowing the k T dependence to be derived explicitly. It also leads to stronger positivity and Soffer-type bounds than usually utilized for the collinear densities.

  8. The importance of nature's invisible fabric: food web structure mediates modeled responses to river restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellmore, R.; Benjamin, J.; Newsom, M.; Bountry, J.; Dombroski, D.

    2016-12-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a food web model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of this model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and floodplain reconnection. To explore how food web structure mediates responses to these actions, we modified the food web by adding populations of invasive aquatic snails and nonnative fish. Simulations suggest that floodplain reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of invasive snails and nonnative fishes modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species, dynamic food web models can improve restoration planning by fostering a deeper understanding of system connectedness and dynamics.

  9. Modelling the elastic scattering in diagnostic radiology: the importance of structure form factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, S. C.; Gonçalves, O. D.; Schechter, H.; Eichler, J.

    2003-07-01

    The importance of structure form factors in describing elastic scattering in diagnostic radiology was studied through a Monte Carlo code built to reproduce scattering in large water samples. The code, developed by us, considers all relevant interactions, including multiple scattering and interference due to scattering by the liquid structure. Geometrical conditions and energies similar to those found in radiology were used. The secondary to primary radiation ratio using the usual free atom approximation and the structure form factor was obtained and both approaches were compared. Calculations of radiological parameters such as the angular distribution of photons incident on the detector and the fraction of scattered photons stopped by anti-scattering grids were also performed considering mammography, thorax and abdomen radiography conditions. The results have shown that S(beta)/P depends on the experimental set-up, being more important for low momentum transfers and sample sizes for which the multiple scattering is not expected to be significant, as in the case of mammography. It was also verified that large samples increase the probability of multiple scattering, masking the structure peak in S(beta) and making the sample structure important just for relatively thin samples. Considering mammography-like geometry, the maximum of the S(beta)/P distribution considering structure form factors occurs around 15° while the correspondent maximum without considering the structure factors occurs around 10° for any sample thickness. S(beta)/P is almost independent of the irradiation field, with the maximum remaining at 15° and 10° for the SFF and FAFF, respectively. The cases studied in this paper stress some conditions in which it is mandatory to use SFF, but since it requires no further significant efforts, the SFF approach is recommended as a standard procedure when describing the elastic scattering process in radiology.

  10. The importance of land cover change across urban-rural typologies for climate modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, Jason; Habeeb, Dana; Stone, Brian

    2013-01-15

    Land cover changes affect local surface energy balances by changing the amount of solar energy reflected, the magnitude and duration over which absorbed energy is released as heat, and the amount of energy that is diverted to non-heating fluxes through evaporation. However, such local influences often are only crudely included in climate modeling exercises, if at all. A better understanding of local land conversion dynamics can serve to inform inputs for climate models and increase the role for land use planning in climate management policy. Here we present a new approach for projecting and incorporating metropolitan land cover change into mesoscale climate and other environmental assessment models. Our results demonstrate the relative contributions of different land development patterns to land cover change and conversion and suggest that regional growth management strategies serving to increase settlement densities over time can have a significant influence on the rate of deforestation per unit of population growth. Employing the approach presented herein, the impacts of land conversion on climate change and on parallel environmental systems and services, such as ground water recharge, habitat provision, and food production, may all be investigated more closely and managed through land use planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The importance of modeling nonhydrostatic processes for dense water reproduction in the Southern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellafiore, Debora; McKiver, William J.; Ferrarin, Christian; Umgiesser, Georg

    2018-05-01

    Dense water (DW) formation commonly occurs in the shallow Northern Adriatic Sea during winter outbreaks, when there is a combination of the cooling of surface waters by the winds and high salinity as a result of reduced river inputs. These DWs subsequently propagate southwards over a period of weeks/months, eventually arriving in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The investigation is based on a new nonhydrostatic (NH) formulation of the 3D finite element model SHYFEM that is validated for a number of theoretical test cases. Subsequently this model is used to simulate, through high-resolution numerical simulations, an extreme DW event that occurred in the Adriatic Sea in 2012. We perform both hydrostatic (HY) and NH simulations in order to explicitly see the impact of NH processes on the DW dynamics. The modeled results are compared to observations collected in the field campaign of March-April 2012 in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The NH run correctly reproduces the across isobath bottom-trapped gravity current characterizing the canyon DW pathways. It also more accurately captures the frequency and intensity of dense water cascading pulsing events, as the inclusion of NH processes produces stronger currents with different DW mixing characteristics. Finally, the NH run simulates internal gravity waves (IGW), generated during the cascading at the edge of the canyon, which propagate downslope. This IGW activity is not captured in the HY case.

  12. PCBs in the Arctic atmosphere: determining important driving forces using a global atmospheric transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Friedman

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a spatially and temporally resolved global atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB model, driven by meteorological data, that is skilled at simulating mean atmospheric PCB concentrations and seasonal cycles in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and mean Arctic concentrations. However, the model does not capture the observed Arctic summer maximum in atmospheric PCBs. We use the model to estimate global budgets for seven PCB congeners, and we demonstrate that congeners that deposit more readily show lower potential for long-range transport, consistent with a recently described "differential removal hypothesis" regarding the hemispheric transport of PCBs. Using sensitivity simulations to assess processes within, outside, or transport to the Arctic, we examine the influence of climate- and emissions-driven processes on Arctic concentrations and their effect on improving the simulated Arctic seasonal cycle. We find evidence that processes occurring outside the Arctic have a greater influence on Arctic atmospheric PCB levels than processes that occur within the Arctic. Our simulations suggest that re-emissions from sea ice melting or from the Arctic Ocean during summer would have to be unrealistically high in order to capture observed temporal trends of PCBs in the Arctic atmosphere. We conclude that midlatitude processes are likely to have a greater effect on the Arctic under global change scenarios than re-emissions within the Arctic.

  13. PCBs in the Arctic atmosphere: determining important driving forces using a global atmospheric transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Carey L.; Selin, Noelle E.

    2016-03-01

    We present a spatially and temporally resolved global atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) model, driven by meteorological data, that is skilled at simulating mean atmospheric PCB concentrations and seasonal cycles in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and mean Arctic concentrations. However, the model does not capture the observed Arctic summer maximum in atmospheric PCBs. We use the model to estimate global budgets for seven PCB congeners, and we demonstrate that congeners that deposit more readily show lower potential for long-range transport, consistent with a recently described "differential removal hypothesis" regarding the hemispheric transport of PCBs. Using sensitivity simulations to assess processes within, outside, or transport to the Arctic, we examine the influence of climate- and emissions-driven processes on Arctic concentrations and their effect on improving the simulated Arctic seasonal cycle. We find evidence that processes occurring outside the Arctic have a greater influence on Arctic atmospheric PCB levels than processes that occur within the Arctic. Our simulations suggest that re-emissions from sea ice melting or from the Arctic Ocean during summer would have to be unrealistically high in order to capture observed temporal trends of PCBs in the Arctic atmosphere. We conclude that midlatitude processes are likely to have a greater effect on the Arctic under global change scenarios than re-emissions within the Arctic.

  14. Human neural stem cells over-expressing VEGF provide neuroprotection, angiogenesis and functional recovery in mouse stroke model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH is a lethal stroke type. As mortality approaches 50%, and current medical therapy against ICH shows only limited effectiveness, an alternative approach is required, such as stem cell-based cell therapy. Previously we have shown that intravenously transplanted human neural stem cells (NSCs selectively migrate to the brain and induce behavioral recovery in rat ICH model, and that combined administration of NSCs and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF results in improved structural and functional outcome from cerebral ischemia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We postulated that human NSCs overexpressing VEGF transplanted into cerebral cortex overlying ICH lesion could provide improved survival of grafted NSCs, increased angiogenesis and behavioral recovery in mouse ICH model. ICH was induced in adult mice by unilateral injection of bacterial collagenase into striatum. HB1.F3.VEGF human NSC line produced an amount of VEGF four times higher than parental F3 cell line in vitro, and induced behavioral improvement and 2-3 fold increase in cell survival at two weeks and eight weeks post-transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Brain transplantation of F3 human NSCs over-expressing VEGF near ICH lesion sites provided differentiation and survival of grafted human NSCs and renewed angiogenesis of host brain and functional recovery of ICH animals. These results suggest a possible application of the human neural stem cell line, which is genetically modified to over-express VEGF, as a therapeutic agent for ICH-stroke.

  15. The Importance of Self-Efficacy in Parental Emergency Preparedness: A Moderated Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Meagan T; Rohrbeck, Cynthia A; Wirtz, Philip W

    2017-08-01

    Disasters occur without warning and can have devastating consequences. Emergency preparedness can reduce negative effects. It is especially important that parents prepare, as children are particularly vulnerable after disasters. This study tested 2 hypotheses: (1) adults with more children are likely to be better prepared than those with fewer or no children because greater caretaking is linked to greater perceived threat of disaster leading to greater preparedness and (2) the strength of this mediational link varies as a function of parental self-efficacy. Data from an online survey about human-made disasters (terrorism) with a community convenience sample were used to test the hypothesis that perceived threat mediates the relationship between parental status (number of children cared for) and preparedness behaviors, moderated by level of self-efficacy for emergency preparedness. A bootstrapping analysis with relevant covariates supported the hypothesized mediating effect of threat on the relationship between parental status and preparedness. This relationship was strengthened at higher levels of parental preparedness self-efficacy. The results of this study are particularly relevant for preparedness interventions. Because threat leads to preparedness, particularly for parents with high self-efficacy, it is important to focus attention on factors that can improve parents' sense of self-efficacy. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 7).

  16. Can Wild Ungulate Carcasses Provide Enough Biomass to Maintain Avian Scavenger Populations? An Empirical Assessment Using a Bio-Inspired Computational Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalida, Antoni; Colomer, Ma. Àngels; Sanuy, Delfí

    2011-01-01

    Background The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in

  17. Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristov, Y.; Oxley, G.; Žagar, M.

    2014-06-01

    The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-epsilon turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies.

  18. Xenon and sevoflurane provide analgesia during labor and fetal brain protection in a perinatal rat model of hypoxia-ischemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Yang

    Full Text Available It is not possible to identify all pregnancies at risk of neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE. Many women use some form of analgesia during childbirth and some anesthetic agents have been shown to be neuroprotective when used as analgesics at subanesthetic concentrations. In this study we sought to understand the effects of two anesthetic agents with presumptive analgesic activity and known preconditioning-neuroprotective properties (sevoflurane or xenon, in reducing hypoxia-induced brain damage in a model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. The analgesic and neuroprotective effects at subanesthetic levels of sevoflurane (0.35% or xenon (35% were tested in a rat model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. Analgesic effects were measured by assessing maternal behavior and spinal cord dorsal horn neuronal activation using c-Fos. In separate experiments, intrauterine fetal asphyxia was induced four hours after gas exposure; on post-insult day 3 apoptotic cell death was measured by caspase-3 immunostaining in hippocampal neurons and correlated with the number of viable neurons on postnatal day (PND 7. A separate cohort of pups was nurtured by a surrogate mother for 50 days when cognitive testing with Morris water maze was performed. Both anesthetic agents provided analgesia as reflected by a reduction in the number of stretching movements and decreased c-Fos expression in the dorsal horn of the spinal cord. Both agents also reduced the number of caspase-3 positive (apoptotic neurons and increased cell viability in the hippocampus at PND7. These acute histological changes were mirrored by improved cognitive function measured remotely after birth on PND 50 compared to control group. Subanesthetic doses of sevoflurane or xenon provided both analgesia and neuroprotection in this model of intrauterine perinatal asphyxia. These data suggest that anesthetic agents with neuroprotective properties may be effective in preventing HIE and should be

  19. Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    Full Text Available Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes

  20. Examining the Support Peer Supporters Provide Using Structural Equation Modeling: Nondirective and Directive Support in Diabetes Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowitt, Sarah D; Ayala, Guadalupe X; Cherrington, Andrea L; Horton, Lucy A; Safford, Monika M; Soto, Sandra; Tang, Tricia S; Fisher, Edwin B

    2017-12-01

    Little research has examined the characteristics of peer support. Pertinent to such examination may be characteristics such as the distinction between nondirective support (accepting recipients' feelings and cooperative with their plans) and directive (prescribing "correct" choices and feelings). In a peer support program for individuals with diabetes, this study examined (a) whether the distinction between nondirective and directive support was reflected in participants' ratings of support provided by peer supporters and (b) how nondirective and directive support were related to depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Three hundred fourteen participants with type 2 diabetes provided data on depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and HbA1c before and after a diabetes management intervention delivered by peer supporters. At post-intervention, participants reported how the support provided by peer supporters was nondirective or directive. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), correlation analyses, and structural equation modeling examined the relationships among reports of nondirective and directive support, depressive symptoms, diabetes distress, and measured HbA1c. CFA confirmed the factor structure distinguishing between nondirective and directive support in participants' reports of support delivered by peer supporters. Controlling for demographic factors, baseline clinical values, and site, structural equation models indicated that at post-intervention, participants' reports of nondirective support were significantly associated with lower, while reports of directive support were significantly associated with greater depressive symptoms, altogether (with control variables) accounting for 51% of the variance in depressive symptoms. Peer supporters' nondirective support was associated with lower, but directive support was associated with greater depressive symptoms.

  1. THE MODEL OF PREVENTION OF VANDAL BEHAVIOR PROVIDED BY THE DEFORMATIONS AND DESTRUCTIONS OF VALUABLE SPHERE OF YOUTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina V. Vorobyeva

    2015-01-01

    model involves personal values that are considered as a dynamic system. Fundamentally new approach to prevention interventions is realised: the model focuses not so much on sanctions actions as on technologies of psychological influences on the problem personality; and formation of steady prosocial strategy of person’s behaviour. Practical significance. The research findings and the application of the proposed model can be useful while planning of educative work in terms of educational institutions by the teachers, administrators and parents, as it provides the possibility to organize selective and point events to prevent destructive behavior of pupils and students, taking into account the characteristics of their value and the scope of actual problems in the manifestation of activity.  

  2. Model selection emphasises the importance of non-chromosomal information in genetic studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reda Rawi

    Full Text Available Ever since the case of the missing heritability was highlighted some years ago, scientists have been investigating various possible explanations for the issue. However, none of these explanations include non-chromosomal genetic information. Here we describe explicitly how chromosomal and non-chromosomal modifiers collectively influence the heritability of a trait, in this case, the growth rate of yeast. Our results show that the non-chromosomal contribution can be large, adding another dimension to the estimation of heritability. We also discovered, combining the strength of LASSO with model selection, that the interaction of chromosomal and non-chromosomal information is essential in describing phenotypes.

  3. Radiofrequency ablation: importance of background tissue electrical conductivity--an agar phantom and computer modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solazzo, Stephanie A; Liu, Zhengjun; Lobo, S Melvyn; Ahmed, Muneeb; Hines-Peralta, Andrew U; Lenkinski, Robert E; Goldberg, S Nahum

    2005-08-01

    To determine whether radiofrequency (RF)-induced heating can be correlated with background electrical conductivity in a controlled experimental phantom environment mimicking different background tissue electrical conductivities and to determine the potential electrical and physical basis for such a correlation by using computer modeling. The effect of background tissue electrical conductivity on RF-induced heating was studied in a controlled system of 80 two-compartment agar phantoms (with inner wells of 0.3%, 1.0%, or 36.0% NaCl) with background conductivity that varied from 0.6% to 5.0% NaCl. Mathematical modeling of the relationship between electrical conductivity and temperatures 2 cm from the electrode (T2cm) was performed. Next, computer simulation of RF heating by using two-dimensional finite-element analysis (ETherm) was performed with parameters selected to approximate the agar phantoms. Resultant heating, in terms of both the T2cm and the distance of defined thermal isotherms from the electrode surface, was calculated and compared with the phantom data. Additionally, electrical and thermal profiles were determined by using the computer modeling data and correlated by using linear regression analysis. For each inner compartment NaCl concentration, a negative exponential relationship was established between increased background NaCl concentration and the T2cm (R2= 0.64-0.78). Similar negative exponential relationships (r2 > 0.97%) were observed for the computer modeling. Correlation values (R2) between the computer and experimental data were 0.9, 0.9, and 0.55 for the 0.3%, 1.0%, and 36.0% inner NaCl concentrations, respectively. Plotting of the electrical field generated around the RF electrode identified the potential for a dramatic local change in electrical field distribution (ie, a second electrical peak ["E-peak"]) occurring at the interface between the two compartments of varied electrical background conductivity. Linear correlations between the E

  4. Modelling the decadal trend of ecosystem carbon fluxes demonstrates the important role of functional changes in a temperate deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jian; Jansson, P.E.; van der Linden, Leon

    2013-01-01

    Temperate forests are globally important carbon sinks and stocks. Trends in net ecosystem exchange have been observed in a Danish beech forest and this trend cannot be entirely attributed to changing climatic drivers. This study sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the observed trend......, using a dynamic ecosystem model (CoupModel) and model data fusion with multiple constraints and model experiments. Experiments with different validation datasets showed that a multiple constraints model data fusion approach that included the annual tree growth, the seasonal canopy development......, the latent and sensible heat fluxes and the CO2 fluxes decreased the parameter uncertainty considerably compared to using CO2 fluxes as validation data alone. The fitted model was able to simulate the observed carbon fluxes well (R2=0.8, mean error=0.1gCm−2d−1) but did not reproduce the decadal (1997...

  5. The importance of being Majorana: neutrinos versus charged fermions in flavor models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nir, Yosef [Department of Particle Physics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Shadmi, Yael [Physics Department, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000 (Israel)]. E-mail: yshadmi@physics.technion.ac.il

    2004-11-01

    We argue that neutrino flavor parameters may exhibit features that are very different from those of quarks and charged leptons. Specifically, within the Froggatt-Nielsen (FN) framework, charged fermion parameters depend on the ratio between two scales, while for neutrinos a third scale - that of lepton number breaking - is involved. Consequently, the selection rules for neutrinos may be different. In particular, if the scale of lepton number breaking is similar to the scale of horizontal symmetry breaking, neutrinos may become flavor-blind even if they carry different horizontal charges. This provides an attractive mechanism for neutrino flavor anarchy. (author)

  6. Imported family models? Cohabitation patterns of Latin American women in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara CORTINA TRILLA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, international immigration flows have undergone a dramatic growth in Spain. In this particular context, the purpose of this article is to analyze whether Latin American female migrants residing in Spain largely maintain nuptial and reproductive patterns from their countries of origin. To analyze the prevalence of consensual unions we use three different databases: the Spanish Immigration Survey, the Spanish Labour Force Survey and birth records, all of them corresponding to 2007 and collected by the Spanish Statistical Institute. The study documents the high prevalence of consensual unions among Latin American migrants. Regarding the socio-demographic factors influencing cohabitation, our results show important similarities between Spanish and Latin American women, except for educational attainment.

  7. The effect of thought importance on stress responses: a test of the metacognitive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capobianco, Lora; Morrison, Anthony P; Wells, Adrian

    2018-03-01

    Negative metacognitive beliefs are central determinants of distress in the metacognitive model of psychological vulnerability to stress. The current study tested this assertion in 75 undergraduate students assigned to either experimental (metacognitive belief manipulation) or control (no metacognitive belief manipulation) condition. All participants underwent a fake EEG, where they were told that the EEG would detect negative thoughts. The experimental subjects were informed that if they had a negative thought they may be exposed to a contingent burst of loud noise, while the control condition was told that they may be exposed to a burst of loud noise at random. Participants also underwent the Trier Social Stress Test. The results showed that on physiological measures (skin conductance level) there were no significant differences between groups. However, on self-report measures (positive and negative affect) participants in the experimental condition reported greater levels of negative affect and lower levels of positive affect in response to stress and maintained low positive affect at recovery. The results are consistent with the metacognitive model and suggest that metacognitive beliefs impact on positive and negative affect in reaction to and recovery from stress exposure.

  8. Flatworm models in pharmacological research: the importance of compound stability testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stalmans, Sofie; Willems, Maxime; Adriaens, Els; Remon, Jean-Paul; D'Hondt, Matthias; De Spiegeleer, Bart

    2014-10-01

    Flatworms possess adult pluripotent stem cells, which make them extraordinary experimental model organisms to assess in vivo the undesirable effects of substances on stem cells. Currently, quality practices, implying evaluation of the stability of the test compound under the proposed experimental conditions, are uncommon in this research field. Nevertheless, performing a stability study during the rational design of in vivo assay protocols will result in more reliable assay results. To illustrate the influence of the stability of the test substance on the final experimental outcome, we performed a short-term International Conference on Harmonization (ICH)-based stability study of cyclophosphamide in the culture medium, to which a marine flatworm model Macrostomum lignano is exposed. Using a validated U(H)PLC method, it was demonstrated that the cyclophosphamide concentration in the culture medium at 20°C is lowered to 80% of the initial concentration after 21days. The multiwell plates, flatworms and diatoms, as well as light exposure, did not influence significantly the cyclophosphamide concentration in the medium. The results of the stability study have practical implications on the experimental set-up of the carcinogenicity assay like the frequency of medium renewal. This case study demonstrates the benefits of applying appropriate quality guidelines already during fundamental research increasing the credibility of the results. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Using a Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Model To Determine the Actual Cost of Services Provided by a Transgenic Core.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerwin, Philip M; Norinsky, Rada M; Tolwani, Ravi J

    2018-03-01

    Laboratory animal programs and core laboratories often set service rates based on cost estimates. However, actual costs may be unknown, and service rates may not reflect the actual cost of services. Accurately evaluating the actual costs of services can be challenging and time-consuming. We used a time-driven activity-based costing (ABC) model to determine the cost of services provided by a resource laboratory at our institution. The time-driven approach is a more efficient approach to calculating costs than using a traditional ABC model. We calculated only 2 parameters: the time required to perform an activity and the unit cost of the activity based on employee cost. This method allowed us to rapidly and accurately calculate the actual cost of services provided, including microinjection of a DNA construct, microinjection of embryonic stem cells, embryo transfer, and in vitro fertilization. We successfully implemented a time-driven ABC model to evaluate the cost of these services and the capacity of labor used to deliver them. We determined how actual costs compared with current service rates. In addition, we determined that the labor supplied to conduct all services (10,645 min/wk) exceeded the practical labor capacity (8400 min/wk), indicating that the laboratory team was highly efficient and that additional labor capacity was needed to prevent overloading of the current team. Importantly, this time-driven ABC approach allowed us to establish a baseline model that can easily be updated to reflect operational changes or changes in labor costs. We demonstrated that a time-driven ABC model is a powerful management tool that can be applied to other core facilities as well as to entire animal programs, providing valuable information that can be used to set rates based on the actual cost of services and to improve operating efficiency.

  10. Medicare Provider Data - Hospice Providers

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Hospice Utilization and Payment Public Use File provides information on services provided to Medicare beneficiaries by hospice providers. The Hospice PUF...

  11. The Importance of Topography in Modeling the Climates of Potentially Habitable Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Way, M.; Jonas, J.

    2017-12-01

    The surface features of distant potentially habitable worlds are unknown and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. As a result, 3-D general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climates of these worlds commonly utilize an aquaplanet configuration (no emergent land). We highlight here the differences in simulated climates that are produced when using realistic, reconstructed, or idealized continental distributions. Paleo-Earth scenarios as analogues of habitable exoplanets with emergent land exist back to 2 Gyr. There is high confidence in continental reconstructions back to 300 Myr, with moderate confidence reconstructions dating to at least 1 Gyr. A range of habitable states exists throughout the last two billion years of Earth history, including periods that are representative of both inner and outer edge environments, i.e., Snowball Earth and the Cretaceous Greenhouse. Using reconstructed land/ocean distributions with the GCM permits us to test hypotheses based on conceptual models (does a supercontinent at tropical latitudes encourage global cooling via albedo feedbacks?) as well as explore far-field climate teleconnections that may explain enhanced habitability (does the closing of an equatorial seaway drive increased heating in polar regions?). Paleo-Venus simulations, using current topography and a slow rotation rate, have shown that large land fraction in the tropics combined with modest amounts of water actually limits the amount of planetary warming to habitable levels, moreso than aquaplanets, given the equivalent solar flux - thus showing the inner edge of the HZ to be more transitional than previously described. For distant exoplanets or paleo-Earth prior to 2 Gyr, idealized continents or modern Earth topography help illustrate the range of possible habitable states for a given case. With idealized continents, varying the land fraction and location produces as much as a 20˚C difference in global MAT for otherwise identical simulations

  12. Modeling Karst Ecosystem-Atmosphere CO2 Exchange: The Importance of Ventilation for Carbonate Geochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, M.; Serrano-Ortiz, P.; Godderis, Y.; Kowalski, A. S.; Janssens, I.

    2011-12-01

    Global carbonate weathering is considered a small carbon flux when compared with biogenic CO2 fluxes. This is, however, a question of time and space. In karst regions, it has been shown that biogenic fluxes are not always dominant. CO2 exchange patterns have been reported there that cannot be explained by biological processes: disproportionate outgassing during daytime or nighttime CO2 uptake during periods when all vegetation is senescent. These phenomena have previously been attributed to carbonate weathering reactions or biocrust activity, but their associated CO2 exchange rates are considered too small [Serrano-Ortiz et al., 2010]. Here, we report a novel mechanism through which carbonate weathering, exacerbated by subterranean ventilation, dominates the diel pattern of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange in karst areas. Ventilation is an efficient air mass transfer process (including pressure pumping, deep penetration of eddies and thermal expansion of air) that occurs in all porous media, when pores are connected and not blocked by water. Due to its high porosity and the presence of caves, fissures and cracks, karts systems are very prone to ventilation. When soil CO2 concentrations are rapidly brought into disequilibrium by ventilation, CO2 fluxes associated with carbonate weathering can exceed those associated with biological activity. The biology-based standardized partitioning schemes that are used by a large community of scientists, are then no longer applicable and gas exchange measurements fail to reveal any information on the biological activity. By incorporating ventilation processes into the mineral weathering model WITCH [Goddéris et al., 2006], we were able to quantify the contribution of carbonate geochemistry to the synoptic CO2 fluxes on karst ecosystems. [1] Goddéris, Y., L. M. Francois, A. Probst, J. Schott, D. Moncoulon, D. Labat, and D. Viville (2006), Modelling weathering processes at the catchment scale: The WITCH numerical model, Geochim

  13. A new glucocerebrosidase-deficient neuronal cell model provides a tool to probe pathophysiology and therapeutics for Gaucher disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Westbroek

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Glucocerebrosidase is a lysosomal hydrolase involved in the breakdown of glucosylceramide. Gaucher disease, a recessive lysosomal storage disorder, is caused by mutations in the gene GBA1. Dysfunctional glucocerebrosidase leads to accumulation of glucosylceramide and glycosylsphingosine in various cell types and organs. Mutations in GBA1 are also a common genetic risk factor for Parkinson disease and related synucleinopathies. In recent years, research on the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease, the molecular link between Gaucher and Parkinson disease, and novel therapeutics, have accelerated the need for relevant cell models with GBA1 mutations. Although induced pluripotent stem cells, primary rodent neurons, and transfected neuroblastoma cell lines have been used to study the effect of glucocerebrosidase deficiency on neuronal function, these models have limitations because of challenges in culturing and propagating the cells, low yield, and the introduction of exogenous mutant GBA1. To address some of these difficulties, we established a high yield, easy-to-culture mouse neuronal cell model with nearly complete glucocerebrosidase deficiency representative of Gaucher disease. We successfully immortalized cortical neurons from embryonic null allele gba−/− mice and the control littermate (gba+/+ by infecting differentiated primary cortical neurons in culture with an EF1α-SV40T lentivirus. Immortalized gba−/− neurons lack glucocerebrosidase protein and enzyme activity, and exhibit a dramatic increase in glucosylceramide and glucosylsphingosine accumulation, enlarged lysosomes, and an impaired ATP-dependent calcium-influx response; these phenotypical characteristics were absent in gba+/+ neurons. This null allele gba−/− mouse neuronal model provides a much-needed tool to study the pathophysiology of Gaucher disease and to evaluate new therapies.

  14. The importance of distribution-choice in modeling substance use data: a comparison of negative binomial, beta binomial, and zero-inflated distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Brandie; Riggs, Paula; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan

    2015-01-01

    It is important to correctly understand the associations among addiction to multiple drugs and between co-occurring substance use and psychiatric disorders. Substance-specific outcomes (e.g. number of days used cannabis) have distributional characteristics which range widely depending on the substance and the sample being evaluated. We recommend a four-part strategy for determining the appropriate distribution for modeling substance use data. We demonstrate this strategy by comparing the model fit and resulting inferences from applying four different distributions to model use of substances that range greatly in the prevalence and frequency of their use. Using Timeline Followback (TLFB) data from a previously-published study, we used negative binomial, beta-binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts to model proportion of days during treatment of cannabis, cigarettes, alcohol, and opioid use. The fit for each distribution was evaluated with statistical model selection criteria, visual plots and a comparison of the resulting inferences. We demonstrate the feasibility and utility of modeling each substance individually and show that no single distribution provides the best fit for all substances. Inferences regarding use of each substance and associations with important clinical variables were not consistent across models and differed by substance. Thus, the distribution chosen for modeling substance use must be carefully selected and evaluated because it may impact the resulting conclusions. Furthermore, the common procedure of aggregating use across different substances may not be ideal.

  15. The importance of magnetic methods for soil mapping and process modelling. Case study in Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menshov, Oleksandr; Pereira, Paulo; Kruglov, Oleksandr; Sukhorada, Anatoliy

    2016-04-01

    The correct planning of agriculture areas is fundamental for a sustainable future in Ukraine. After the recent political problems in Ukraine, new challenges emerged regarding sustainability questions. At the same time the soil mapping and modelling are intensively developing all over the world (Pereira et al., 2015; Brevik et al., in press). Magnetic susceptibility (MS) methods are low cost and accurate for the developing maps of agricultural areas, fundamental for Ukrain's economy.This allow to colleact a great amount of soil data, usefull for a better understading of the spatial distribution of soil properties. Recently, this method have been applied in other works in Ukraine and elsewhere (Jordanova et al., 2011; Menshov et al., 2015). The objective of this work is to study the spatial distribution of MS and humus content on the topsoils (0-5 cm) in two different areas. The first is located in Poltava region and the second in Kharkiv region. The results showed that MS depends of soil type, topography and anthropogenic influence. For the interpretation of MS spatial distribution in top soil we consider the frequency and time after the last tillage, tilth depth, fertilizing, and the puddling regarding the vehicle model. On average the soil MS of the top soil of these two cases is about 30-70×10-8 m3/kg. In Poltava region not disturbed soil has on average MS values of 40-50×10-8 m3/kg, for Kharkiv region 50-60×10-8 m3/kg. The tilled soil of Poltava region has on average an MS of 60×10-8 m3/kg, and 70×10-8 m3/kg in Kharkiv region. MS is higher in non-tilled soils than in the tilled ones. The correlation between MS and soil humus content is very high ( up to 0.90) in both cases. Breivik, E., Baumgarten, A., Calzolari, C., Miller, B., Pereira, P., Kabala, C., Jordán, A. Soil mapping, classification, and modelling: history and future directions. Geoderma (in press), doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2015.05.017 Jordanova D., Jordanova N., Atanasova A., Tsacheva T., Petrov P

  16. Model, First-Principle Calculation of Ammonia Dissociation on Si(100 Surface. Importance of Proton Tunneling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Z. Zgierski

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The dissociation of an ammonia molecule on a cluster of Si atoms simulating the 100 silicon crystal structure with two Si dimers has been investigated by means of the DFT and an approximate instanton methods. The model corresponds to the low coverage limit of the surface. Absolute rate constants of two different dissociation paths are evaluated together with deuterium isotope effects. It is demonstrated that, even at room temperatures, the process is dominated by tunneling and that dissociation to a silicon atom of the adjacent dimer, rather than a silicon within the same dimer, is the prevailing mechanism. This leads to creation of a metastable structure which will slowly decay through a two-step hydrogen atom migration towards the absolute minimum on the potential energy surface corresponding to the NH2 group and the hydrogen atom residing in the same dimer.

  17. Baryonic effects in cosmic shear tomography: PCA parametrization and importance of extreme baryonic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammed, Irshad [Fermilab; Gnedin, Nickolay Y. [Fermilab

    2017-07-07

    Baryonic effects are amongst the most severe systematics to the tomographic analysis of weak lensing data which is the principal probe in many future generations of cosmological surveys like LSST, Euclid etc.. Modeling or parameterizing these effects is essential in order to extract valuable constraints on cosmological parameters. In a recent paper, Eifler et al. (2015) suggested a reduction technique for baryonic effects by conducting a principal component analysis (PCA) and removing the largest baryonic eigenmodes from the data. In this article, we conducted the investigation further and addressed two critical aspects. Firstly, we performed the analysis by separating the simulations into training and test sets, computing a minimal set of principle components from the training set and examining the fits on the test set. We found that using only four parameters, corresponding to the four largest eigenmodes of the training set, the test sets can be fitted thoroughly with an RMS $\\sim 0.0011$. Secondly, we explored the significance of outliers, the most exotic/extreme baryonic scenarios, in this method. We found that excluding the outliers from the training set results in a relatively bad fit and degraded the RMS by nearly a factor of 3. Therefore, for a direct employment of this method to the tomographic analysis of the weak lensing data, the principle components should be derived from a training set that comprises adequately exotic but reasonable models such that the reality is included inside the parameter domain sampled by the training set. The baryonic effects can be parameterized as the coefficients of these principle components and should be marginalized over the cosmological parameter space.

  18. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Railsback, S F; Harvey, B C

    2011-12-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers' understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics such as depth and velocity, temperature, hiding and feeding cover, drift-food supply and predation risk), fish physiology (especially, how food intake and growth vary with hydrodynamics, cover, fish size and temperature) and behaviour. When drift-food concentration was increased over a wide range in 7 year simulations, the simulated population was always food limited. In fact, as food supply increased, the population increased at an increasing rate and consumed a higher percentage of the food supply, apparently because higher food concentrations make more stream area energetically profitable for drift feeders. The behaviour most responsible for this response was activity selection: when food was abundant, fish chose to feed less frequently and more nocturnally, thereby reducing predation mortality so more fish survived longer. These results indicate that the traditional concept of food limitation, that food availability stops limiting population size when it exceeds some threshold level, may not be useful and can be misleading. Results also strongly contradict the concept that a salmonid population is not food limited if the total food supply is greater than the population's consumption. Explicit consideration of adaptive behaviour produced a novel but believable understanding of food effects on salmonid populations. Published 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  19. Atmospheric dispersion models for integrated pollution control. The use of second generation models and the importance of plume rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maul, P.R.; Cooper, N.S.; Fisher, B.E.A.; Venter, A.

    1999-07-01

    This report has updated a previous review on available atmospheric dispersion models and has made an assessment of the advantages of including second generation atmospheric dispersion methods in the APPRAISE software. The comparisons were made principally with ADMS 2 and with AERMOD. There are large discrepancies in ground level concentrations predicted under convective conditions by the different models and this can be partly attributed to plume rise conditions and constraints. The adoption of alternative plume rise expressions and approaches taken by the commercial models is a problematic approach for APPRAISE. However, by using analytical expressions, based on the Briggs recommendations for plume rise, an approximation to the governing conditions can be made without the need for extended pre-processing times for meteorological data. Illustrative emission conditions were calculated for a range of power generators - from a steam boiler to a large power station. A limited set of circumstances were assessed but distinct differences were indicated and demonstrated the sensitivity of downstream concentrations to plume rise. Recommendations were put forward for, the adaptation of APPRAISE to take account of plume rise effects. Feasibly the other advantages of second generation air dispersion models could be incorporated but this would probably mean close co-operation with one of the principal model suppliers. 36 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: Importance of vehicle fleet and local features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Hong; Zhang Qiang; He Kebin; Yao Zhiliang; Wang Xintong; Zheng Bo; Streets, David G.; Wang Qidong; Ding Yan

    2011-01-01

    We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control. - Highlights: → We examine vehicle emissions in 22 Chinese cities of different types and locations. → Vehicle emission factors of the cities differ by 50-90% due to distinct local features. → Each vehicle type contributes differently to total emissions among the cities. → A substantial increase in vehicle emissions in most Chinese cities is foreseeable. → City-specific fleet and local features are important in research and policy making. - Vehicle emission characteristics of Chinese cities are remarkably different, and local features need to be taken into account in vehicle emission studies and control strategy.

  1. A Hybrid Monte Carlo importance sampling of rare events in Turbulence and in Turbulent Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margazoglou, Georgios; Biferale, Luca; Grauer, Rainer; Jansen, Karl; Mesterhazy, David; Rosenow, Tillmann; Tripiccione, Raffaele

    2017-11-01

    Extreme and rare events is a challenging topic in the field of turbulence. Trying to investigate those instances through the use of traditional numerical tools turns to be a notorious task, as they fail to systematically sample the fluctuations around them. On the other hand, we propose that an importance sampling Monte Carlo method can selectively highlight extreme events in remote areas of the phase space and induce their occurrence. We present a brand new computational approach, based on the path integral formulation of stochastic dynamics, and employ an accelerated Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for this purpose. Through the paradigm of stochastic one-dimensional Burgers' equation, subjected to a random noise that is white-in-time and power-law correlated in Fourier space, we will prove our concept and benchmark our results with standard CFD methods. Furthermore, we will present our first results of constrained sampling around saddle-point instanton configurations (optimal fluctuations). The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 642069, and from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under ERC Grant Agreement No. 339032.

  2. The Hispanic Clinic for Pediatric Surgery: A model to improve parent-provider communication for Hispanic pediatric surgery patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, Joshua; Snyder, Elizabeth; Dunlap, Jonathan L; Wright, Robert; Mendoza, Fernando; Bruzoni, Matias

    2016-04-01

    26 million Americans have limited English proficiency (LEP). It is well established that language barriers adversely affect health and health care. Despite growing awareness of language barriers, there is essentially a void in the medical literature regarding the influence of language disparity on pediatric surgery patients. This study was designed to assess the impact of patient-provider language concordance on question-asking behavior and patient satisfaction for pediatric surgery patients. Participants included families of patients in a General Pediatric Surgery Clinic categorized into 3 groups by patient-provider language concordance: concordant English-speaking, LEP concordant Spanish-speaking, and LEP discordant Spanish-speaking using an interpreter. Clinical visits were audio recorded and the number of patient-initiated questions and the length of clinical encounter were measured. Families were administered a surgery-specific, 5-point Likert scale questionnaire modeled after validated surveys concerning communication, trust, perceived discrimination and patient-provider language concordance. Regression models were performed to analyze associations between language concordance and patient's question-asking behavior and between language concordance and survey results. A total of 156 participants were enrolled including 57 concordant-English, 52 LEP concordant-Spanish and 47 LEP-discordant-Spanish. There was significant variation in the mean number of patient-initiated questions among the groups (p=0.002). Both the English and Spanish concordant groups asked a similar number of questions (p=0.9), and they both asked more questions compared to the Spanish-discordant participants (p=0.002 and p=0.001). Language discordance was associated with fewer questions asked after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Language concordant participants rated higher scores of communication. Both Spanish-concordant and Spanish-discordant patients reported significantly increased

  3. The importance of becoming double-stranded: Innate immunity and the kinetic model of HIV-1 central plus strand synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poeschla, Eric, E-mail: poeschla.eric@mayo.edu

    2013-06-20

    Central initiation of plus strand synthesis is a conserved feature of lentiviruses and certain other retroelements. This complication of the standard reverse transcription mechanism produces a transient “central DNA flap” in the viral cDNA, which has been proposed to mediate its subsequent nuclear import. This model has assumed that the important feature is the flapped DNA structure itself rather than the process that produces it. Recently, an alternative kinetic model was proposed. It posits that central plus strand synthesis functions to accelerate conversion to the double-stranded state, thereby helping HIV-1 to evade single-strand DNA-targeting antiviral restrictions such as APOBEC3 proteins, and perhaps to avoid innate immune sensor mechanisms. The model is consistent with evidence that lentiviruses must often synthesize their cDNAs when dNTP concentrations are limiting and with data linking reverse transcription and uncoating. There may be additional kinetic advantages for the artificial genomes of lentiviral gene therapy vectors. - Highlights: • Two main functional models for HIV central plus strand synthesis have been proposed. • In one, a transient central DNA flap in the viral cDNA mediates HIV-1 nuclear import. • In the other, multiple kinetic consequences are emphasized. • One is defense against APOBEC3G, which deaminates single-stranded DNA. • Future questions pertain to antiviral restriction, uncoating and nuclear import.

  4. Minimal important change (MIC) based on a predictive modeling approach was more precise than MIC based on ROC analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terluin, B.; Eekhout, I.; Terwee, C.B.; de Vet, H.C.W.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To present a new method to estimate a "minimal important change" (MIC) of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scales, based on predictive modeling, and to compare its performance with the MIC based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To illustrate how the new method

  5. The importance of becoming double-stranded: Innate immunity and the kinetic model of HIV-1 central plus strand synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeschla, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Central initiation of plus strand synthesis is a conserved feature of lentiviruses and certain other retroelements. This complication of the standard reverse transcription mechanism produces a transient “central DNA flap” in the viral cDNA, which has been proposed to mediate its subsequent nuclear import. This model has assumed that the important feature is the flapped DNA structure itself rather than the process that produces it. Recently, an alternative kinetic model was proposed. It posits that central plus strand synthesis functions to accelerate conversion to the double-stranded state, thereby helping HIV-1 to evade single-strand DNA-targeting antiviral restrictions such as APOBEC3 proteins, and perhaps to avoid innate immune sensor mechanisms. The model is consistent with evidence that lentiviruses must often synthesize their cDNAs when dNTP concentrations are limiting and with data linking reverse transcription and uncoating. There may be additional kinetic advantages for the artificial genomes of lentiviral gene therapy vectors. - Highlights: • Two main functional models for HIV central plus strand synthesis have been proposed. • In one, a transient central DNA flap in the viral cDNA mediates HIV-1 nuclear import. • In the other, multiple kinetic consequences are emphasized. • One is defense against APOBEC3G, which deaminates single-stranded DNA. • Future questions pertain to antiviral restriction, uncoating and nuclear import

  6. Importance of Housekeeping gene selection for accurate RT-qPCR in a wound healing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turabelidze, Anna; Guo, Shujuan; DiPietro, Luisa A.

    2010-01-01

    Studies in the field of wound healing have utilized a variety of different housekeeping genes for RT-qPCR analysis. However, nearly all of these studies assume that the selected normalization gene is stably expressed throughout the course of the repair process. The purpose of our current investigation was to identify the most stable housekeeping genes for studying gene expression in mouse wound healing using RT-qPCR. To identify which housekeeping genes are optimal for studying gene expression in wound healing, we examined all articles published in Wound Repair and Regeneration that cited RT-qPCR during the period of Jan/Feb 2008 until July/August2009. We determined that ACTIN, GAPDH, 18S and β2M were the most frequently used housekeeping genes in human, mouse, and pig studies. We also investigated nine commonly used housekeeping genes that are not generally used in wound healing models: GUS, TBP, RPLP2, ATP5B, SDHA, UBC, CANX, CYC1, and YWHAZ. We observed that wounded and unwounded tissues have contrasting housekeeping gene expression stability. The results demonstrate that commonly used housekeeping genes must be validated as accurate normalizing genes for each individual experimental condition. PMID:20731795

  7. A model for determining when an analysis contains sufficient detail to provide adequate NEPA coverage for a proposed action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eccleston, C.H.

    1994-11-01

    Neither the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) nor its subsequent regulations provide substantive guidance for determining the Level of detail, discussion, and analysis that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. Yet, decisionmakers are routinely confronted with the problem of making such determinations. Experience has shown that no two decisionmakers are Likely to completely agree on the amount of discussion that is sufficient to adequately cover a proposed action. one decisionmaker may determine that a certain Level of analysis is adequate, while another may conclude the exact opposite. Achieving a consensus within the agency and among the public can be problematic. Lacking definitive guidance, decisionmakers and critics alike may point to a universe of potential factors as the basis for defending their claim that an action is or is not adequately covered. Experience indicates that assertions are often based on ambiguous opinions that can be neither proved nor disproved. Lack of definitive guidance slows the decisionmaking process and can result in project delays. Furthermore, it can also Lead to inconsistencies in decisionmaking, inappropriate Levels of NEPA documentation, and increased risk of a project being challenged for inadequate coverage. A more systematic and less subjective approach for making such determinations is obviously needed. A paradigm for reducing the degree of subjectivity inherent in such decisions is presented in the following paper. The model is specifically designed to expedite the decisionmaking process by providing a systematic approach for making these determination. In many cases, agencies may find that using this model can reduce the analysis and size of NEPA documents

  8. Supplementary Material for: Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole genome sequencing and protein structure modelling provides insights into anti-tuberculosis drug resistance

    KAUST Repository

    Phelan, Jody

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background Combating the spread of drug resistant tuberculosis is a global health priority. Whole genome association studies are being applied to identify genetic determinants of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. Protein structure and interaction modelling are used to understand the functional effects of putative mutations and provide insight into the molecular mechanisms leading to resistance. Methods To investigate the potential utility of these approaches, we analysed the genomes of 144 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) collection sourced from 20 countries in four continents. A genome-wide approach was applied to 127 isolates to identify polymorphisms associated with minimum inhibitory concentrations for first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. In addition, the effect of identified candidate mutations on protein stability and interactions was assessed quantitatively with well-established computational methods. Results The analysis revealed that mutations in the genes rpoB (rifampicin), katG (isoniazid), inhA-promoter (isoniazid), rpsL (streptomycin) and embB (ethambutol) were responsible for the majority of resistance observed. A subset of the mutations identified in rpoB and katG were predicted to affect protein stability. Further, a strong direct correlation was observed between the minimum inhibitory concentration values and the distance of the mutated residues in the three-dimensional structures of rpoB and katG to their respective drugs binding sites. Conclusions Using the TDR resource, we demonstrate the usefulness of whole genome association and convergent evolution approaches to detect known and potentially novel mutations associated with drug resistance. Further, protein structural modelling could provide a means of predicting the impact of polymorphisms on drug efficacy in the absence of phenotypic data. These approaches could ultimately lead to novel

  9. Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole genome sequencing and protein structure modelling provides insights into anti-tuberculosis drug resistance

    KAUST Repository

    Phelan, Jody

    2016-03-23

    Background Combating the spread of drug resistant tuberculosis is a global health priority. Whole genome association studies are being applied to identify genetic determinants of resistance to anti-tuberculosis drugs. Protein structure and interaction modelling are used to understand the functional effects of putative mutations and provide insight into the molecular mechanisms leading to resistance. Methods To investigate the potential utility of these approaches, we analysed the genomes of 144 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) collection sourced from 20 countries in four continents. A genome-wide approach was applied to 127 isolates to identify polymorphisms associated with minimum inhibitory concentrations for first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. In addition, the effect of identified candidate mutations on protein stability and interactions was assessed quantitatively with well-established computational methods. Results The analysis revealed that mutations in the genes rpoB (rifampicin), katG (isoniazid), inhA-promoter (isoniazid), rpsL (streptomycin) and embB (ethambutol) were responsible for the majority of resistance observed. A subset of the mutations identified in rpoB and katG were predicted to affect protein stability. Further, a strong direct correlation was observed between the minimum inhibitory concentration values and the distance of the mutated residues in the three-dimensional structures of rpoB and katG to their respective drugs binding sites. Conclusions Using the TDR resource, we demonstrate the usefulness of whole genome association and convergent evolution approaches to detect known and potentially novel mutations associated with drug resistance. Further, protein structural modelling could provide a means of predicting the impact of polymorphisms on drug efficacy in the absence of phenotypic data. These approaches could ultimately lead to novel resistance

  10. Categorical Inputs, Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Importance Tempering with tgp Version 2, an R Package for Treed Gaussian Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Gramacy

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This document describes the new features in version 2.x of the tgp package for R, implementing treed Gaussian process (GP models. The topics covered include methods for dealing with categorical inputs and excluding inputs from the tree or GP part of the model; fully Bayesian sensitivity analysis for inputs/covariates; sequential optimization of black-box functions; and a new Monte Carlo method for inference in multi-modal posterior distributions that combines simulated tempering and importance sampling. These additions extend the functionality of tgp across all models in the hierarchy: from Bayesian linear models, to classification and regression trees (CART, to treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the baseline functionality of the package, outlined in the first vignette (Gramacy 2007.

  11. Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.

    2015-01-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This

  12. Importance of prediction outlier diagnostics in determining a successful inter-vendor multivariate calibration model transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guenard, Robert D; Wehlburg, Christine M; Pell, Randy J; Haaland, David M

    2007-07-01

    This paper reports on the transfer of calibration models between Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) instruments from four different manufacturers. The piecewise direct standardization (PDS) method is compared with the new hybrid calibration method known as prediction augmented classical least squares/partial least squares (PACLS/PLS). The success of a calibration transfer experiment is judged by prediction error and by the number of samples that are flagged as outliers that would not have been flagged as such if a complete recalibration were performed. Prediction results must be acceptable and the outlier diagnostics capabilities must be preserved for the transfer to be deemed successful. Previous studies have measured the success of a calibration transfer method by comparing only the prediction performance (e.g., the root mean square error of prediction, RMSEP). However, our study emphasizes the need to consider outlier detection performance as well. As our study illustrates, the RMSEP values for a calibration transfer can be within acceptable range; however, statistical analysis of the spectral residuals can show that differences in outlier performance can vary significantly between competing transfer methods. There was no statistically significant difference in the prediction error between the PDS and PACLS/PLS methods when the same subset sample selection method was used for both methods. However, the PACLS/PLS method was better at preserving the outlier detection capabilities and therefore was judged to have performed better than the PDS algorithm when transferring calibrations with the use of a subset of samples to define the transfer function. The method of sample subset selection was found to make a significant difference in the calibration transfer results using the PDS algorithm, while the transfer results were less sensitive to subset selection when the PACLS/PLS method was used.

  13. Non-Model-Based Control of a Wheeled Vehicle Pulling Two Trailers to Provide Early Powered Mobility and Driving Experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders Td Vr, David A

    2018-01-01

    Non-model-based control of a wheeled vehicle pulling two trailers is proposed. It is a fun train for disabled children consisting of a locomotive and two carriages. The fun train has afforded opportunities for both disabled and able bodied young people to share an activity and has provided early driving experiences for disabled children; it has introduced them to assistive and powered mobility. The train is a nonlinear system and subject to nonholonomic kinematic constraints, so that position and state depend on the path taken to get there. The train is described, and then, a robust control algorithm using proportional-derivative filtered errors is proposed to control the locomotive. The controller was not dependent on an accurate model of the train, because the mass of the vehicle and two carriages changed depending on the number, size, and shape of children and wheelchair seats on the train. The controller was robust and stable in uncertainty. Results are presented to show the effectiveness of the approach, and the suggested control algorithm is shown to be acceptable without knowing the exact plant dynamics.

  14. A New Model for Providing Cell-Free DNA and Risk Assessment for Chromosome Abnormalities in a Public Hospital Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Wallerstein

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Cell-free DNA (cfDNA offers highly accurate noninvasive screening for Down syndrome. Incorporating it into routine care is complicated. We present our experience implementing a novel program for cfDNA screening, emphasizing patient education, genetic counseling, and resource management. Study Design. Beginning in January 2013, we initiated a new patient care model in which high-risk patients for aneuploidy received genetic counseling at 12 weeks of gestation. Patients were presented with four pathways for aneuploidy risk assessment and diagnosis: (1 cfDNA; (2 integrated screening; (3 direct-to-invasive testing (chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis; or (4 no first trimester diagnostic testing/screening. Patients underwent follow-up genetic counseling and detailed ultrasound at 18–20 weeks to review first trimester testing and finalize decision for amniocentesis. Results. Counseling and second trimester detailed ultrasound were provided to 163 women. Most selected cfDNA screening (69% over integrated screening (0.6%, direct-to-invasive testing (14.1%, or no screening (16.6%. Amniocentesis rates decreased following implementation of cfDNA screening (19.0% versus 13.0%, P<0.05. Conclusion. When counseled about screening options, women often chose cfDNA over integrated screening. This program is a model for patient-directed, efficient delivery of a newly available high-level technology in a public health setting. Genetic counseling is an integral part of patient education and determination of plan of care.

  15. A Multi-Period Optimization Model for Service Providers Using Online Reservation Systems: An Application to Hotels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ming; Jiao, Yan; Li, Xiaoming; Cao, Qingfeng; Wang, Xiaoyang

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period optimization model for high margin and zero salvage products in online distribution channels with classifying customers based on number of products required. Taking hotel customers as an example, one is regular customers who reserve rooms for one day, and the other is long term stay (LTS) customers who reserve rooms for a number of days. LTS may guarantee a specific amount of demand and generate opportunity income for a certain number of periods, meanwhile with risk of punishment incurred by overselling. By developing an operational optimization model and exploring the effects of parameters on optimal decisions, we suggest that service providers should make decisions based on the types of customers, number of products required, and duration of multi-period to reduce the loss of reputation and obtain more profit; at the same time, multi-period buying customers should buy products early. Finally, the paper conducts a numerical experiment, and the results are consistent with prevailing situations. PMID:26147663

  16. Formative evaluation of a telemedicine model for delivering clinical neurophysiology services part I: Utility, technical performance and service provider perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Breen Patricia

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Formative evaluation is conducted in the early stages of system implementation to assess how it works in practice and to identify opportunities for improving technical and process performance. A formative evaluation of a teleneurophysiology service was conducted to examine its technical and sociological dimensions. Methods A teleneurophysiology service providing routine EEG investigation was established. Service use, technical performance and satisfaction of clinical neurophysiology personnel were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively. These were contrasted with a previously reported analysis of the need for teleneurophysiology, and examination of expectation and satisfaction with clinical neurophysiology services in Ireland. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis was also conducted. Results Over the course of 40 clinical sessions during 20 weeks, 142 EEG investigations were recorded and stored on a file server at a satellite centre which was 130 miles away from the host clinical neurophysiology department. Using a virtual private network, the EEGs were accessed by a consultant neurophysiologist at the host centre for interpretation. The model resulted in a 5-fold increase in access to EEG services as well as reducing average waiting times for investigation by a half. Technically the model worked well, although a temporary loss of virtual private network connectivity highlighted the need for clarity in terms of responsibility for troubleshooting and repair of equipment problems. Referral quality, communication between host and satellite centres, quality of EEG recordings, and ease of EEG review and reporting indicated that appropriate organisational processes were adopted by the service. Compared to traditional CN service delivery, the teleneurophysiology model resulted in a comparable unit cost per EEG. Conclusion Observations suggest that when traditional organisational boundaries are crossed challenges associated with the

  17. Using a computerized provider order entry system to meet the unique prescribing needs of children: description of an advanced dosing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellenberger Patricia

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well known that the information requirements necessary to safely treat children with therapeutic medications cannot be met with the same approaches used in adults. Over a 1-year period, Duke University Hospital engaged in the challenging task of enhancing an established computerized provider order entry (CPOE system to address the unique medication dosing needs of pediatric patients. Methods An advanced dosing model (ADM was designed to interact with our existing CPOE application to provide decision support enabling complex pediatric dose calculations based on chronological age, gestational age, weight, care area in the hospital, indication, and level of renal impairment. Given that weight is a critical component of medication dosing that may change over time, alerting logic was added to guard against erroneous entry or outdated weight information. Results Pediatric CPOE was deployed in a staggered fashion across 6 care areas over a 14-month period. Safeguards to prevent miskeyed values became important in allowing providers the flexibility to override the ADM logic if desired. Methods to guard against over- and under-dosing were added. The modular nature of our model allows us to easily add new dosing scenarios for specialized populations as the pediatric population and formulary change over time. Conclusions The medical needs of pediatric patients vary greatly from those of adults, and the information systems that support those needs require tailored approaches to design and implementation. When a single CPOE system is used for both adults and pediatrics, safeguards such as redirection and suppression must be used to protect children from inappropriate adult medication dosing content. Unlike other pediatric dosing systems, our model provides active dosing assistance and dosing process management, not just static dosing advice.

  18. Theoretical seismic models of Mars: the importance of the iron content of the mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mocquet, A.; Vacher, P.; Grasset, O.; Sotin, C.

    1996-11-01

    Present-day averaged temperature profiles of the mantle of Mars are computed through numerical convection experiments performed with axisymmetrical geometry, for different values of core radii and different boundary conditions at the core-mantle boundary. Internal heating of the mantle is considered in each case. It is found that the temperature profiles of the mantle are very stable whatever the imposed conditions at the core-mantle boundary. A 300 km thick thermal lithosphere, displaying a temperature gradient equal to 4.4 K km -1 is followed at greater depths by a quasi-isothermal mantle, the temperature of which is found in a 1200-1600 K temperature range. A mean temperature equal to 1400 K is in a good agreement with the low Q of Mars at tidal frequencies. These characteristics, together with the small increase of pressure with depth, of the order of 0.01 GPa km -1, induce the presence of a low-velocity zone similar to the Earth's one, down to 300 km depth. Densities and seismic velocities corresponding to these thermodynamical conditions are computed using Grüneisen's and third-order finite strain theory for different values of the iron content of mantle minerals. Below 300 km depth, the values of magnitude as within the Earth's transition zone. An increase of the iron content of the Martian mantle with respect to the Earth's one results (1) in an increase of density, and a decrease of seismic velocities, which can reach more than 2% of the values expected from an Earth like composition, (2) in a homogenization of mantle structure through the smoothing out of seismic discontinuities over a thickness of a few hundred kilometres. This smoothing process is due to the large pressure domains of coexistence between different phases of olivine when the iron content of this latter mineral increases. Plausible domains of core density and core radius are finally checked back for each of the computed models of mantle density. These tests show that the principal moment

  19. What is important for hearing aid satisfaction? Application of the expectancy-disconfirmation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Carly; Hickson, Louise; Khan, Asad; Walker, David

    2014-01-01

    Between 68.1-89.5% of clients report that they are satisfied with their hearing aids. Two variables that are thought to contribute to dissatisfaction with hearing aids are product performance, and a mismatch between performance and client prefitting expectations about hearing-aid performance (i.e., disconfirmation). A focus on variables related to satisfaction is relevant to improving hearing rehabilitation services. The aim of this study was to determine if measures of hearing-aid performance and disconfirmation, specifically related to hearing ability and hearing-aid problems, were associated with overall hearing-aid satisfaction among a sample of hearing-aid users. A retrospective research design was employed. A total of 123 individuals participated in the study (57% male; mean age: 72 yr). All participants owned hearing aids. A personal details questionnaire and the Profile of Hearing Aid Consumer Satisfaction questionnaire (Wong et al, 2009) were completed by participants, 3-12 mo after they obtained hearing aids. Overall hearing-aid satisfaction was a dichotomized variable (satisfaction vs. dissatisfaction); therefore, logistic regression modeling was applied to the data to determine which variables were associated with overall hearing-aid satisfaction. Sixty-one percent of the sample reported that they were satisfied with their hearing aids. Hearing-aid satisfaction was associated with the ability to hear with hearing aids and better-than-expected performance in this same area; fewer hearing-aid problems; and fewer problems with hearing-aid manipulation, hearing-aid appearance, and wearer discomfort than were anticipated before hearing-aid fitting. It is recommended that to improve hearing-aid satisfaction, clinicians should ensure optimal hearing-aid benefit in the listening situations that the person with hearing impairment most wants to hear better; reduce the likelihood of hearing-aid problems occurring; and promote positive disconfirmation (performance

  20. Decent wage is more important than absolution of debts: A smallholder socio-hydrological modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The hydroclimatic variability is at sub-annual scale and influences the socio-hydrology at annual scale. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of a sugarcane small holder in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydro-climatic variability. We study the sensitivity of annual total capital averaged over 30 years, an indicator of small holder wellbeing, to initial capital that a small holder starts with and the prevalent wage rates. We find that a smallholder well being is low (below Rs 30000 per annum, a threshold above which a smallholder can afford a basic standard of living) and is rather insensitive to initial capital at low wage rates. Initial capital perhaps matters to small holder livelihoods at higher wage rates. Further, the small holder system appears to be resilient at around Rs 115/mandays in the sense that small perturbations in wage rates around this rate still sustains the smallholder above the basic standard of living. Our results thus indicate that government intervention to absolve the debt of farmers is not enough. It

  1. The PROMIS model to highlight the importance of the foetus to the validation of a pregnant woman model

    OpenAIRE

    AURIAULT, Florent; THOLLON, Lionel; PERES, Jérémie; DELOTTE, J; KAYVANTASH, K; BRUNET, Christian; BEHR, Michel

    2013-01-01

    The percentage of trauma during pregnancy related to road accident is between 50% and 75%. This type of trauma can result in premature birth or even foetal loss. To analyse and understand the injury mechanisms in pregnant women involved in a car accident, several studies proposed computational or physical tools to simulate accidents. Specific dummy and numerical models have been proposed and validated using experimental data from post-mortem human surrogate (PMHS) scaled with the equal-stress...

  2. Modeling the gas-particle partitioning of secondary organic aerosol: the importance of liquid-liquid phase separation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Zuend

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The partitioning of semivolatile organic compounds between the gas phase and aerosol particles is an important source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA. Gas-particle partitioning of organic and inorganic species is influenced by the physical state and water content of aerosols, and therefore ambient relative humidity (RH, as well as temperature and organic loading levels. We introduce a novel combination of the thermodynamic models AIOMFAC (for liquid mixture non-ideality and EVAPORATION (for pure compound vapor pressures with oxidation product information from the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM for the computation of gas-particle partitioning of organic compounds and water. The presence and impact of a liquid-liquid phase separation in the condensed phase is calculated as a function of variations in relative humidity, organic loading levels, and associated changes in aerosol composition. We show that a complex system of water, ammonium sulfate, and SOA from the ozonolysis of α-pinene exhibits liquid-liquid phase separation over a wide range of relative humidities (simulated from 30% to 99% RH. Since fully coupled phase separation and gas-particle partitioning calculations are computationally expensive, several simplified model approaches are tested with regard to computational costs and accuracy of predictions compared to the benchmark calculation. It is shown that forcing a liquid one-phase aerosol with or without consideration of non-ideal mixing bears the potential for vastly incorrect partitioning predictions. Assuming an ideal mixture leads to substantial overestimation of the particulate organic mass, by more than 100% at RH values of 80% and by more than 200% at RH values of 95%. Moreover, the simplified one-phase cases stress two key points for accurate gas-particle partitioning calculations: (1 non-ideality in the condensed phase needs to be considered and (2 liquid-liquid phase separation is a consequence of considerable deviations

  3. Immunization with lipopolysaccharide-deficient whole cells provides protective immunity in an experimental mouse model of Acinetobacter baumannii infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meritxell García-Quintanilla

    Full Text Available The increasing clinical importance of infections caused by multidrug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii warrants the development of novel approaches for prevention and treatment. In this context, vaccination of certain patient populations may contribute to reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by this pathogen. Vaccines against Gram-negative bacteria based on inactivated bacterial cells are highly immunogenic and have been shown to produce protective immunity against a number of bacterial species. However, the high endotoxin levels present in these vaccines due to the presence of lipopolysaccharide complicates their use in human vaccination. In the present study, we used a laboratory-derived strain of A. baumannii that completely lacks lipopolysaccharide due to a mutation in the lpxD gene (IB010, one of the genes involved in the first steps of lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis, for vaccination. We demonstrate that IB010 has greatly reduced endotoxin content (<1.0 endotoxin unit/106 cells compared to wild type cells. Immunization with formalin inactivated IB010 produced a robust antibody response consisting of both IgG1 and IgG2c subtypes. Mice immunized with IB010 had significantly lower post-infection tissue bacterial loads and significantly lower serum levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β, TNF-α and IL-6 compared to control mice in a mouse model of disseminated A. baumannii infection. Importantly, immunized mice were protected from infection with the ATCC 19606 strain and an A. baumannii clinical isolate. These data suggest that immunization with inactivated A. baumannii whole cells deficient in lipopolysaccharide could serve as the basis for a vaccine for the prevention of infection caused by A. baumannii.

  4. Looking beyond the importance of life goals. The personal goal model of subjective well-being in neuropsychological rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, Nico; Doering, Bettina K; Rief, Winfried; Exner, Cornelia

    2010-05-01

    To identify subjective importance, attainability and success of life goals and their predictive value for subjective well-being in patients with acquired brain injury. Cross-sectional, descriptive. Two inpatient neurological rehabilitation centres. Patients with non-progressive neurological disorders. Survey using questionnaires. Life goal characteristics were assessed using a life goal questionnaire (GOALS). Subjective well-being (composite score) was measured using the Center of the Epidemic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Fifty-nine patients participated in the study. The most important life goals are intimacy (4.59/5), achievement (3.96/5) and altruism (3.89/5). The intimacy goals are considered most attainable (4.19/5) and patients feel most successful in this domain (3.98/5). Two important predictions of the personal goal model of subjective well-being could be confirmed. First, goal attainability moderates the relation between goal importance and goal success. Second, the influence of goal importance on subjective well-being is mediated by experienced success. The most powerful predictors for subjective well-being are success in the achievement domain (beta = 0.404) and discrepancy between importance and success in the intimacy domain (beta = -0.276). The subjective well-being of neurological patients depends not only on the appraised importance of life goals but also on their attainability and success.

  5. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  6. Modelling local distribution of an Arctic dwarf shrub indicates an important role for remote sensing of snow cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, PSA; Kalmbach, E; Joly, D; Stien, A; Nilsen, L

    2005-01-01

    Despite the intensive research effort directed at predicting the effects of climate change on plants in the Arctic, the impact of environmental change on species' distributions remains difficult to quantify. Predictive habitat distribution models provide a tool to predict the geographical

  7. Parameter and observation importance in modelling virus transport in saturated porous media - Investigations in a homogenous system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, G.R.; Hill, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the importance of seven types of parameters to virus transport: hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity, sorption rate and distribution coefficient (representing physical-chemical filtration), and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation (representing virus inactivation). The first three parameters relate to subsurface transport in general while the last four, the sorption rate, distribution coefficient, and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation rates, represent the interaction of viruses with the porous medium and their ability to persist. The importance of four types of observations to estimate the virus-transport parameters are evaluated: hydraulic heads, flow, temporal moments of conservative-transport concentrations, and virus concentrations. The evaluations are conducted using one- and two-dimensional homogeneous simulations, designed from published field experiments, and recently developed sensitivity-analysis methods. Sensitivity to the transport-simulation time-step size is used to evaluate the importance of numerical solution difficulties. Results suggest that hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and sorption are most important to virus-transport predictions. Most observation types provide substantial information about hydraulic conductivity and porosity; only virus-concentration observations provide information about sorption and inactivation. The observations are not sufficient to estimate these important parameters uniquely. Even with all observation types, there is extreme parameter correlation between porosity and hydraulic conductivity and between the sorption rate and in-solution inactivation. Parameter estimation was accomplished by fixing values of porosity and in-solution inactivation.

  8. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hester Korthals Altes

    Full Text Available While tuberculosis (TB represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI. Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation-either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers: Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-pulmonary TB cases from 1995-2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that

  9. Formation of supermassive black holes in the center of galaxies. Importance of a multi-scale theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawakatsu, Nozomu; Wada, Keiichi

    2011-01-01

    It is now widely accepted that most of normal galaxies have their central supermassive black holes (SMBHs). However, the formation and evolution of SMBHs is still open question and a hot topic in astrophysics. In this article, we review recent theoretical studies on the formation of SMBHs in the center of galaxies, and mention the importance of constructing a multi-scale theoretical model. (author)

  10. Latent tuberculosis infection in foreign-born communities: Import vs. transmission in The Netherlands derived through mathematical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloet, Serieke; Cobelens, Frank; Bootsma, Martin

    2018-01-01

    While tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant disease burden worldwide, low-incidence countries strive to reach the WHO target of pre-elimination by 2035. Screening for TB in immigrants is an important component of the strategy to reduce the TB burden in low-incidence settings. An important option is the screening and preventive treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). Whether this policy is worthwhile depends on the extent of transmission within the country, and introduction of new cases through import. Mathematical transmission models of TB have been used to identify key parameters in the epidemiology of TB and estimate transmission rates. An important application has also been to investigate the consequences of policy scenarios. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for TB transmission within the Netherlands to estimate the size of the pool of latent infections, and to determine the share of importation–either through immigration or travel- versus transmission within the Netherlands. We take into account importation of infections due to immigration, and travel to the country of origin, focusing on the three ethnicities most represented among foreign-born TB cases (after exclusion of those overrepresented among asylum seekers): Moroccans, Turkish and Indonesians. We fit a system of ordinary differential equations to the data from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Registry on (extra-)pulmonary TB cases from 1995–2013. We estimate that about 27% of Moroccans, 25% of Indonesians, and 16% of Turkish, are latently infected. Furthermore, we find that for all three foreign-born communities, immigration is the most important source of LTBI, but the extent of within-country transmission is much lower (about half) for the Turkish and Indonesian communities than for the Moroccan. This would imply that contact investigation would have a greater yield in the latter community than in the former. Travel remains a minor factor contributing LTBI, suggesting that targeting

  11. a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

    2010-06-01

    The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

  12. The Importance of Non-neuronal Cell Types in hiPSC-Based Disease Modeling and Drug Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Gonzalez

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Current applications of human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC technologies in patient-specific models of neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders tend to focus on neuronal phenotypes. Here, we review recent efforts toward advancing hiPSCs toward non-neuronal cell types of the central nervous system (CNS and highlight their potential use for the development of more complex in vitro models of neurodevelopment and disease. We present evidence from previous works in both rodents and humans of the importance of these cell types (oligodendrocytes, microglia, astrocytes in neurological disease and highlight new hiPSC-based models that have sought to explore these relationships in vitro. Lastly, we summarize efforts toward conducting high-throughput screening experiments with hiPSCs and propose methods by which new screening platforms could be designed to better capture complex relationships between neural cell populations in health and disease.

  13. The importance of statistical modelling in clinical research : Comparing multidimensional Rasch-, structural equation and linear regression models for analyzing the depression of relatives of psychiatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrowicz, Rainer W; Jahn, Rebecca; Friedrich, Fabian; Unger, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Various studies have shown that caregiving relatives of schizophrenic patients are at risk of suffering from depression. These studies differ with respect to the applied statistical methods, which could influence the findings. Therefore, the present study analyzes to which extent different methods may cause differing results. The present study contrasts by means of one data set the results of three different modelling approaches, Rasch Modelling (RM), Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and Linear Regression Modelling (LRM). The results of the three models varied considerably, reflecting the different assumptions of the respective models. Latent trait models (i. e., RM and SEM) generally provide more convincing results by correcting for measurement error and the RM specifically proves superior for it treats ordered categorical data most adequately.

  14. A fuzzy multi-objective model for capacity allocation and pricing policy of provider in data communication service with different QoS levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Wei; Wang, Xianjia; Zhong, Yong-guang; Yu, Lean; Jie, Cao; Ran, Lun; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Xianhao

    2012-06-01

    Data communication service has an important influence on e-commerce. The key challenge for the users is, ultimately, to select a suitable provider. However, in this article, we do not focus on this aspect but the viewpoint and decision-making of providers for order allocation and pricing policy when orders exceed service capacity. It is a multiple criteria decision-making problem such as profit and cancellation ratio. Meanwhile, we know realistic situations in which much of the input information is uncertain. Thus, it becomes very complex in a real-life environment. In this situation, fuzzy sets theory is the best tool for solving this problem. Our fuzzy model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider the imprecision of information, price sensitive demand, stochastic variables, cancellation fee and the general membership function. For solving the problem, a new fuzzy programming is developed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that it is effective for determining the suitable order set and pricing policy of provider in data communication service with different quality of service (QoS) levels.

  15. An Integral Model to Provide Reactive and Proactive Services in an Academic CSIRT Based on Business Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Fuertes

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Cyber-attacks have increased in severity and complexity. That requires, that the CERT/CSIRT research and develops new security tools. Therefore, our study focuses on the design of an integral model based on Business Intelligence (BI, which provides reactive and proactive services in a CSIRT, in order to alert and reduce any suspicious or malicious activity on information systems and data networks. To achieve this purpose, a solution has been assembled, that generates information stores, being compiled from a continuous network transmission of several internal and external sources of an organization. However, it contemplates a data warehouse, which is focused like a correlator of logs, being formed by the information of feeds with diverse formats. Furthermore, it analyzed attack detection and port scanning, obtained from sensors such as Snort and Passive Vulnerability Scanner, which are stored in a database, where the logs have been generated by the systems. With such inputs, we designed and implemented BI systems using the phases of the Ralph Kimball methodology, ETL and OLAP processes. In addition, a software application has been implemented using the SCRUM methodology, which allowed to link the obtained logs to the BI system for visualization in dynamic dashboards, with the purpose of generating early alerts and constructing complex queries using the user interface through objects structures. The results demonstrate, that this solution has generated early warnings based on the level of criticality and level of sensitivity of malware and vulnerabilities as well as monitoring efficiency, increasing the level of security of member institutions.

  16. THE UNIFICATION OF THE CODE LISTS PROVIDED WITHIN THE DATA MODEL ORIGINATING FROM THE INSPIRE TECHNICAL GUIDELINES AND THE ONES PROVIDED FOR GESUT DATABASES IN THE CONTEXT OF POTENTIAL EXPLOITATION IN THE MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej ZYGMUNIAK

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed at exposing differences between two data models in case of code lists values provided there. The first of them is an obligatory one for managing Geodesic Register of Utility Networks databases in Poland [9] and the second is the model originating from the Technical Guidelines issued to the INSPIRE Directive. Since the second one mentioned is the basis for managing spatial databases among European parties, correlating these two data models has an effect in easing the way of harmonizing and, in consequence, exchanging spatial data. Therefore, the study presents the possibilities of increasing compatibility between the values of the code lists concerning attributes for objects provid-ed in both models. In practice, it could lead to an increase of the competitiveness of entities managing or processing such databases and to greater involvement in scientific or research projects when it comes to the mining industry. More-over, since utility networks located on mining areas are under particular protection, the ability of making them more fitted to their own needs will make it possible for mining plants to exchange spatial data in a more efficient way.

  17. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  18. Diet before and during Pregnancy and Offspring Health: The Importance of Animal Models and What Can Be Learned from Them

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascale Chavatte-Palmer

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This review article outlines epidemiologic studies that support the hypothesis that maternal environment (including early nutrition plays a seminal role in determining the offspring’s long-term health and metabolism, known as the concept of Developmental Origins of Health and Diseases (DOHaD. In this context, current concerns are particularly focused on the increased incidence of obesity and diabetes, particularly in youth and women of child-bearing age. We summarize key similarities, differences and limitations of various animal models used to study fetal programming, with a particular focus on placentation, which is critical for translating animal findings to humans. This review will assist researchers and their scientific audience in recognizing the pros and cons of various rodent and non-rodent animal models used to understand mechanisms involved in fetal programming. Knowledge gained will lead to improved translation of proposed interventional therapies before they can be implemented in humans. Although rodents are essential for fundamental exploration of biological processes, other species such as rabbits and other domestic animals offer more tissue-specific physiological (rabbit placenta or physical (ovine maternal and lamb birth weight resemblances to humans. We highlight the important maternal, placental, and fetal/neonatal characteristics that contribute to developmentally programmed diseases, specifically in offspring that were affected in utero by undernutrition, overnutrition or maternal diabetes. Selected interventions aimed at prevention are summarized with a specific focus on the 1000 days initiative in humans, and maternal exercise or modification of the n-3/n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA balance in the diet, which are currently being successfully tested in animal models to correct or reduce adverse prenatal programming. Animal models are essential to understand mechanisms involved in fetal programming and in order to

  19. A Topology Evolution Model Based on Revised PageRank Algorithm and Node Importance for Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaogang Qi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor network (WSN is a classical self-organizing communication network, and its topology evolution currently becomes one of the attractive issues in this research field. Accordingly, the problem is divided into two subproblems: one is to design a new preferential attachment method and the other is to analyze the dynamics of the network topology evolution. To solve the first subproblem, a revised PageRank algorithm, called Con-rank, is proposed to evaluate the node importance upon the existing node contraction, and then a novel preferential attachment is designed based on the node importance calculated by the proposed Con-rank algorithm. To solve the second one, we firstly analyze the network topology evolution dynamics in a theoretical way and then simulate the evolution process. Theoretical analysis proves that the network topology evolution of our model agrees with power-law distribution, and simulation results are well consistent with our conclusions obtained from the theoretical analysis and simultaneously show that our topology evolution model is superior to the classic BA model in the average path length and the clustering coefficient, and the network topology is more robust and can tolerate the random attacks.

  20. THE IMPORTANCE OF MODELING THE FORMATION AND EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNAL CONTROL MECHANISM IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The authors of this paper have tried to use the importance of the use of internal control in business, especially since there are a number of public and other companies that operate without the existence of internal control mechanics. It is particularly important to establish in the public sector because the same business with taxpayers' money. Thus the modeling can be a useful tool to get to the assurances regarding the importance of establishing internal controls and internal control mechanisms in the ordinary course of business. In addition, the establishment of internal controls, improve the safety of operations, and to achieve this it is necessary to devise a means of whom will be enhanced reporting management. Surely reports to management are an essential prerequisite for making valid and timely decisions to increase business performance. The authors have provided a model imbued with meaning by which will be enhanced reporting management, the authors point out that there is no universal model, and this is just one possible approach to this problem.

  1. A decision tree model to estimate the value of information provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Khader

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater contaminated with nitrate poses a serious health risk to infants when this contaminated water is used for culinary purposes. To avoid this health risk, people need to know whether their culinary water is contaminated or not. Therefore, there is a need to design an effective groundwater monitoring network, acquire information on groundwater conditions, and use acquired information to inform management options. These actions require time, money, and effort. This paper presents a method to estimate the value of information (VOI provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network located in an aquifer whose water poses a spatially heterogeneous and uncertain health risk. A decision tree model describes the structure of the decision alternatives facing the decision-maker and the expected outcomes from these alternatives. The alternatives include (i ignore the health risk of nitrate-contaminated water, (ii switch to alternative water sources such as bottled water, or (iii implement a previously designed groundwater quality monitoring network that takes into account uncertainties in aquifer properties, contaminant transport processes, and climate (Khader, 2012. The VOI is estimated as the difference between the expected costs of implementing the monitoring network and the lowest-cost uninformed alternative. We illustrate the method for the Eocene Aquifer, West Bank, Palestine, where methemoglobinemia (blue baby syndrome is the main health problem associated with the principal contaminant nitrate. The expected cost of each alternative is estimated as the weighted sum of the costs and probabilities (likelihoods associated with the uncertain outcomes resulting from the alternative. Uncertain outcomes include actual nitrate concentrations in the aquifer, concentrations reported by the monitoring system, whether people abide by manager recommendations to use/not use aquifer water, and whether people get sick from drinking contaminated water

  2. A decision tree model to estimate the value of information provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, A. I.; Rosenberg, D. E.; McKee, M.

    2013-05-01

    Groundwater contaminated with nitrate poses a serious health risk to infants when this contaminated water is used for culinary purposes. To avoid this health risk, people need to know whether their culinary water is contaminated or not. Therefore, there is a need to design an effective groundwater monitoring network, acquire information on groundwater conditions, and use acquired information to inform management options. These actions require time, money, and effort. This paper presents a method to estimate the value of information (VOI) provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network located in an aquifer whose water poses a spatially heterogeneous and uncertain health risk. A decision tree model describes the structure of the decision alternatives facing the decision-maker and the expected outcomes from these alternatives. The alternatives include (i) ignore the health risk of nitrate-contaminated water, (ii) switch to alternative water sources such as bottled water, or (iii) implement a previously designed groundwater quality monitoring network that takes into account uncertainties in aquifer properties, contaminant transport processes, and climate (Khader, 2012). The VOI is estimated as the difference between the expected costs of implementing the monitoring network and the lowest-cost uninformed alternative. We illustrate the method for the Eocene Aquifer, West Bank, Palestine, where methemoglobinemia (blue baby syndrome) is the main health problem associated with the principal contaminant nitrate. The expected cost of each alternative is estimated as the weighted sum of the costs and probabilities (likelihoods) associated with the uncertain outcomes resulting from the alternative. Uncertain outcomes include actual nitrate concentrations in the aquifer, concentrations reported by the monitoring system, whether people abide by manager recommendations to use/not use aquifer water, and whether people get sick from drinking contaminated water. Outcome costs

  3. A decision tree model to estimate the value of information provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, A.; Rosenberg, D.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrate pollution poses a health risk for infants whose freshwater drinking source is groundwater. This risk creates a need to design an effective groundwater monitoring network, acquire information on groundwater conditions, and use acquired information to inform management. These actions require time, money, and effort. This paper presents a method to estimate the value of information (VOI) provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network located in an aquifer whose water poses a spatially heterogeneous and uncertain health risk. A decision tree model describes the structure of the decision alternatives facing the decision maker and the expected outcomes from these alternatives. The alternatives include: (i) ignore the health risk of nitrate contaminated water, (ii) switch to alternative water sources such as bottled water, or (iii) implement a previously designed groundwater quality monitoring network that takes into account uncertainties in aquifer properties, pollution transport processes, and climate (Khader and McKee, 2012). The VOI is estimated as the difference between the expected costs of implementing the monitoring network and the lowest-cost uninformed alternative. We illustrate the method for the Eocene Aquifer, West Bank, Palestine where methemoglobinemia is the main health problem associated with the principal pollutant nitrate. The expected cost of each alternative is estimated as the weighted sum of the costs and probabilities (likelihoods) associated with the uncertain outcomes resulting from the alternative. Uncertain outcomes include actual nitrate concentrations in the aquifer, concentrations reported by the monitoring system, whether people abide by manager recommendations to use/not-use aquifer water, and whether people get sick from drinking contaminated water. Outcome costs include healthcare for methemoglobinemia, purchase of bottled water, and installation and maintenance of the groundwater monitoring system. At current

  4. Photodegradation of bentazon, clopyralid, and triclopyr on model leaves: importance of a systematic evaluation of pesticide photostability on crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyheraguibel, Boris; Ter Halle, Alexandra; Richard, Claire

    2009-03-11

    Photolyses of three herbicides, bentazon, clopyralid, and triclopyr, were studied on plant leaves after crop treatment. The experiments were carried out on cuticular wax films, which are good models for leaf surfaces. The pure compounds and their commercial formulations were investigated under simulated solar light. At the recommended agricultural application rates, the three formulated herbicides photolyzed more rapidly on films than on soil or in water. Their photolysis is likely to be an important dissipation path from crops after treatment. The effects induced by the adjuvants in formulations were varied. Adjuvants slowed the photodegradation of bentazon slightly. In Garlon, in which triclopyr and clopyralid are combined, the adjuvants did not affect the photolysis of clopyralid even though they accelerated the rate of photolysis of triclopyr by a factor of 7. The kinetics were also affected by the application rates. This work also underscores the importance of assessing the photoreactivity of active ingredients in conditions similar to those of their application.

  5. Importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Cobo, A.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the following: general concepts of importance measures; example fault tree, used to illustrate importance measures; Birnbaum's structural importance; criticality importance; Fussel-Vesely importance; upgrading function; risk achievement worth; risk reduction worth

  6. Investigating the Importance of 3D Structure & Topography in Seismic Deformation Modeling: Case Study of the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, L.; Gharti, H. N.; Tromp, J.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, observations of deformation at plate boundaries have been greatly improved by the development of techniques in space geodesy. However, models of seismic deformation remain limited and are unable to account for realistic 3D structure in topography and material properties. We demonstrate the importance of 3D structure using a spectral-element method that incorporates fault geometry, topography, and heterogeneous material properties in a (non)linear viscoelastic domain. Our method is benchmarked against Okada's analytical technique and the PyLith software package. The April 2015 Nepal earthquake is used as a case study to examine whether 3D structure can affect the predictions of seismic deformation models. We find that the inclusion of topography has a significant effect on our results.

  7. Providing High-Quality Support Services to Home-Based Child Care: A Conceptual Model and Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromer, Juliet; Korfmacher, Jon

    2017-01-01

    Research Findings: Home-based child care accounts for a significant proportion of nonparental child care arrangements for young children in the United States. Yet the early care and education field lacks clear models or pathways for how to improve quality in these settings. The conceptual model presented here articulates the components of…

  8. Does brain slices from pentylenetetrazole-kindled mice provide a more predictive screening model for antiepileptic drugs?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Suzanne L.; Sterjev, Zoran; Werngreen, Marie

    2012-01-01

    screening model for AEDs. To this end, we compared the in vitro and in vivo pharmacological profile of several selected AEDs (phenobarbital, phenytoin, tiagabine, fosphenytoin, valproate, and carbamazepine) along with citalopram using the PTZ-kindled model and brain slices from naïve, saline...

  9. Provider communication and role modeling related to patients' perceptions and use of a federally qualified health center-based farmers' market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Daniela B; Freedman, Darcy A; Choi, Seul Ki; Anadu, Edith C; Brandt, Heather M; Carvalho, Natalia; Hurley, Thomas G; Young, Vicki M; Hébert, James R

    2014-03-01

    Farmers' markets have the potential to improve the health of underserved communities, shape people's perceptions, values, and behaviors about healthy eating, and serve as a social space for both community members and vendors. This study explored the influence of health care provider communication and role modeling for diabetic patients within the context of a farmers' market located at a federally qualified health center. Although provider communication about diet decreased over time, communication strategies included: providing patients with "prescriptions" and vouchers for market purchases; educating patients about diet; and modeling healthy purchases. Data from patient interviews and provider surveys revealed that patients enjoyed social aspects of the market including interactions with their health care provider, and providers distributed prescriptions and vouchers to patients, shopped at the market, and believed that the market had potential to improve the health of staff and patients of the federally qualified health center. Provider modeling of healthy behaviors may influence patients' food-related perceptions and dietary behaviors.

  10. Importance of dissolved organic nitrogen in the north Atlantic Ocean in sustaining primary production: a 3-D modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Charria

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available An eddy-permitting coupled ecosystem-circulation model including dissolved organic matter is used to estimate the dissolved organic nitrogen (DON supply sustaining primary production in the subtropical north Atlantic Ocean.

    After an analysis of the coupled model performances compared to the data, a sensitivity study demonstrates the strong impact of parameter values linked to the hydrolysis of particulate organic nitrogen and remineralisation of dissolved organic nitrogen on surface biogeochemical concentrations.

    The physical transport of dissolved organic nitrogen contributes to maintain the level of primary production in this subtropical gyre. It is dominated by the meridional component. We estimate a meridional net input of 0.039 molN m−2 yr−1 over the domain (13–35° N and 71–40° W in the subtropical gyre. This supply is driven by the Ekman transport in the southern part and by non-Ekman transport (meridional current components, eddies, meanders and fronts in the northern part of the subtropical gyre. At 12° N, our estimate (18 kmolN s−1 confirms the estimation (17.9 kmolN s−1 made by Roussenov et al. (2006 using a simplified biogeochemical model in a large scale model. This DON meridional input is within the range (from 0.05 up to 0.24 molN m−2 yr−1 (McGillicuddy and Robinson, 1997; Oschlies, 2002 of all other possible mechanisms (mesoscale activity, nitrogen fixation, atmospheric deposition fuelling primary production in the subtropical gyre. The present study confirms that the lateral supply of dissolved organic nitrogen might be important in closing the N budget over the north Atlantic Ocean and quantifies the importance of meridional input of dissolved organic nitrogen.

  11. PROVIDING THE FIRE RISK MAP IN FOREST AREA USING A GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION MODEL WITH GAUSSIN KERNEL AND MODIS IMAGES, A CASE STUDY: GOLESTAN PROVINCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Shah-Heydari pour

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available According to the industrialization of cities and the apparent increase in pollutants and greenhouse gases, the importance of forests as the natural lungs of the earth is felt more than ever to clean these pollutants. Annually, a large part of the forests is destroyed due to the lack of timely action during the fire. Knowledge about areas with a high-risk of fire and equipping these areas by constructing access routes and allocating the fire-fighting equipment can help to eliminate the destruction of the forest. In this research, the fire risk of region was forecasted and the risk map of that was provided using MODIS images by applying geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel and ordinary least squares over the effective parameters in forest fire including distance from residential areas, distance from the river, distance from the road, height, slope, aspect, soil type, land use, average temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. After the evaluation, it was found that the geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel forecasted 93.4% of the all fire points properly, however the ordinary least squares method could forecast properly only 66% of the fire points.

  12. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  13. Bayesian importance parameter modeling of misaligned predictors: soil metal measures related to residential history and intellectual disability in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onicescu, Georgiana; Lawson, Andrew B.; McDermott, Suzanne; Aelion, C. Marjorie; Cai, Bo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel spatial importance parameter hierarchical logistic regression modeling approach that includes measurement error from misalignment. We apply this model to study the relationship between the estimated concentration of soil metals at the residence of mothers and the development of intellectual disability (ID) in their children. The data consist of monthly computerized claims data about the prenatal experience of pregnant women living in nine areas within South Carolina and insured by Medicaid during January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2001 and the outcome of ID in their children during early childhood. We excluded mother-child pairs if the mother moved to an unknown location during pregnancy. We identified an association of the ID outcome with arsenic (As) and mercury (Hg) concentration in soil during pregnancy, controlling for infant sex, maternal race, mother's age, and gestational weeks at delivery. There is some indication that Hg has a slightly higher importance in the third and fourth months of pregnancy, while As has a more uniform effect over all the months with a suggestion of a slight increase in risk in later months. PMID:24888618

  14. Bayesian importance parameter modeling of misaligned predictors: soil metal measures related to residential history and intellectual disability in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onicescu, Georgiana; Lawson, Andrew B; McDermott, Suzanne; Aelion, C Marjorie; Cai, Bo

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel spatial importance parameter hierarchical logistic regression modeling approach that includes measurement error from misalignment. We apply this model to study the relationship between the estimated concentration of soil metals at the residence of mothers and the development of intellectual disability (ID) in their children. The data consist of monthly computerized claims data about the prenatal experience of pregnant women living in nine areas within South Carolina and insured by Medicaid during January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2001 and the outcome of ID in their children during early childhood. We excluded mother-child pairs if the mother moved to an unknown location during pregnancy. We identified an association of the ID outcome with arsenic (As) and mercury (Hg) concentration in soil during pregnancy, controlling for infant sex, maternal race, mother's age, and gestational weeks at delivery. There is some indication that Hg has a slightly higher importance in the third and fourth months of pregnancy, while As has a more uniform effect over all the months with a suggestion of a slight increase in risk in later months.

  15. Standard-Model Tests with Superallowed β-Decay: An Important Application of Very Precise Mass Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy, J. C.; Towner, I. S.

    2001-01-01

    Superallowed β-decay provides a sensitive means for probing the limitations of the Electroweak Standard Model. To date, the strengths (ft-values) of superallowed 0 +→ 0 + β-decay transitions have been determined with high precision from nine different short-lived nuclei, ranging from 10 C to 54 Co. Each result leads to an independent measure for the vector coupling constant G V and collectively the nine values can be used to test the conservation of the weak vector current (CVC). Within current uncertainties, the results support CVC to better than a few parts in 10,000 - a clear success for the Standard Model! However, when the average value of G V , as determined in this way, is combined with data from decays of the muon and kaon to test another prediction of the Standard Model, the result is much more provocative. A test of the unitarity of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix fails by more than two standard deviations. This result can be made more definitive by experiments that require extremely precise mass measurements, in some cases on very short-lived (≤100 ms) nuclei. This talk presents the current status and future prospects for these Standard-Model tests, emphasizing the role of precise mass, or mass-difference measurements. There remains a real challenge to mass-measurement technique with the opportunity for significant new results

  16. Do Cochrane Reviews Provide a Good Model for Social Science? The Role of Observational Studies in Systematic Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konnerup, Merete; Kongsted, Hans Christian

    2012-01-01

    Formalised research synthesis to underpin evidence-based policy and practice has become increasingly important in areas of public policy. In this paper we discuss whether the Cochrane standard for systematic reviews of healthcare interventions is appropriate for social research. We examine the formal criteria of the Cochrane Collaboration for…

  17. The impact of satisfaction and payment equity on cross-buying : A dynamic model for a multi-service provider

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, P C; Franses, P H; Hoekstra, J C

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, marketers have primarily focused on keeping customers. Only recently have they become aware that creating value by cross-selling additional services is also an important aspect of customer relationship management. In this article we investigate how satisfaction and payment

  18. Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otsuki, Shiori

    2016-01-01

    Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

  19. Regulation-Structured Dynamic Metabolic Model Provides a Potential Mechanism for Delayed Enzyme Response in Denitrification Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hyun-Seob; Thomas, Dennis G.; Stegen, James C.; Li, Minjing; Liu, Chongxuan; Song, Xuehang; Chen, Xingyuan; Fredrickson, Jim K.; Zachara, John M.; Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2017-09-29

    In a recent study of denitrification dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments, we observed a significant time lag (up to several days) in enzymatic response to the changes in substrate concentration. To explore an underlying mechanism and understand the interactive dynamics between enzymes and nutrients, we developed a trait-based model that associates a community’s traits with functional enzymes, instead of typically used species guilds (or functional guilds). This enzyme-based formulation allows to collectively describe biogeochemical functions of microbial communities without directly parameterizing the dynamics of species guilds, therefore being scalable to complex communities. As a key component of modeling, we accounted for microbial regulation occurring through transcriptional and translational processes, the dynamics of which was parameterized based on the temporal profiles of enzyme concentrations measured using a new signature peptide-based method. The simulation results using the resulting model showed several days of a time lag in enzymatic responses as observed in experiments. Further, the model showed that the delayed enzymatic reactions could be primarily controlled by transcriptional responses and that the dynamics of transcripts and enzymes are closely correlated. The developed model can serve as a useful tool for predicting biogeochemical processes in natural environments, either independently or through integration with hydrologic flow simulators.

  20. In vivo islet protection by a nuclear import inhibitor in a mouse model of type 1 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J Moore

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Insulin-dependent Type 1 diabetes (T1D is a devastating autoimmune disease that destroys beta cells within the pancreatic islets and afflicts over 10 million people worldwide. These patients face life-long risks for blindness, cardiovascular and renal diseases, and complications of insulin treatment. New therapies that protect islets from autoimmune destruction and allow continuing insulin production are needed. Increasing evidence regarding the pathomechanism of T1D indicates that islets are destroyed by the relentless attack by autoreactive immune cells evolving from an aberrant action of the innate, in addition to adaptive, immune system that produces islet-toxic cytokines, chemokines, and other effectors of islet inflammation. We tested the hypothesis that targeting nuclear import of stress-responsive transcription factors evoked by agonist-stimulated innate and adaptive immunity receptors would protect islets from autoimmune destruction.Here we show that a first-in-class inhibitor of nuclear import, cSN50 peptide, affords in vivo islet protection following a 2-day course of intense treatment in NOD mice, which resulted in a diabetes-free state for one year without apparent toxicity. This nuclear import inhibitor precipitously reduces the accumulation of islet-destructive autoreactive lymphocytes while enhancing activation-induced cell death of T and B lymphocytes derived from autoimmune diabetes-prone, non-obese diabetic (NOD mice that develop T1D. Moreover, in this widely used model of human T1D we noted attenuation of pro-inflammatory cytokine and chemokine production in immune cells.These results indicate that a novel form of immunotherapy that targets nuclear import can arrest inflammation-driven destruction of insulin-producing beta cells at the site of autoimmune attack within pancreatic islets during the progression of T1D.

  1. Quantifying the economic importance of irrigation water reuse in a Chilean watershed using an integrated agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, R. T.; Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Irrigation with surface water enables Chilean agricultural producers to generate one of the country's most important economic exports. The Chilean water code established tradable water rights as a mechanism to allocate water amongst farmers and other water-use sectors. It remains contested whether this mechanism is effective and many authors have raised equity concerns regarding its impact on water users. For example, speculative hoarding of water rights in expectations of their increasing value has been described. This paper demonstrates how farmers can hoard water rights as a risk management strategy for variable water supply, for example, due to the cycles of El Niño or as consequence of climate change. While farmers with insufficient water rights can rely on unclaimed water during conditions of normal water availability, drought years overproportionally impact on their supply of irrigation water and thereby farm profitability. This study uses a simulation model that consists of a hydrological balance model component and a multiagent farm decision and production component. Both model components are parameterized with empirical data, while uncertain parameters are calibrated. The study demonstrates a thorough quantification of parameter uncertainty, using global sensitivity analysis and multiple behavioral parameter scenarios.

  2. 3D gravity modeling of the Corrientes province (NE Argentina) and its importance to the Guarani Aquifer System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mira, Andrés; Gómez Dacal, María Laura; Tocho, Claudia; Vives, Luis

    2013-11-01

    This paper presents a geological model of Corrientes province (Argentina) based on Bouguer gravity anomaly data, obtained in 2073 measurement points. To build the model, the IGMAS + interactive program was used. Two areas of approximately 135,000 km2 were modeled in this study. The selection of these areas was based on the sectors where the largest number of gravity anomaly measurements was made and other type of data was available to perform the parameterization (i.e, lithology profiles in boreholes, seismic profiles and audio-magnetotelluric AMT soundings). The initial geological configuration proposed was composed by four layers: basement, sediments (Paleozoic-Lower Cretaceous), basalts (Serra Geral Group, Lower Cretaceous) and post-basaltic sediments. The result shows a basement compartmentalized in structural blocks separated by large faults. The connection of Asunción and Río Grande Arches is confirmed along a structural high that crosses Corrientes province from SE to NW. The basaltic layer shows lateral changes in its thickness, due to faulting, almost disappearing on the NW of Corrientes. This structural configuration has a special hydrogeological importance because it produces the rise of the Guaraní Aquifer System sedimentary series near the surface and the intense fracture network makes this area prone to local recharge and regional discharge.

  3. Discrete event simulation model for external yard choice of import container terminal in a port buffer area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusgiyarto, Ferry; Sjafruddin, Ade; Frazila, Russ Bona; Suprayogi

    2017-06-01

    Increasing container traffic and land acquisition problem for terminal expansion leads to usage of external yard in a port buffer area. This condition influenced the terminal performance because a road which connects the terminal and the external yard was also used by non-container traffic. Location choice problem considered to solve this condition, but the previous research has not taken account a stochastic condition of container arrival rate and service time yet. Bi-level programming framework was used to find optimum location configuration. In the lower-level, there was a problem to construct the equation, which correlated the terminal operation and the road due to different time cycle equilibrium. Container moves from the quay to a terminal gate in a daily unit of time, meanwhile, it moves from the terminal gate to the external yard through the road in a minute unit of time. If the equation formulated in hourly unit equilibrium, it cannot catch up the container movement characteristics in the terminal. Meanwhile, if the equation formulated in daily unit equilibrium, it cannot catch up the road traffic movement characteristics in the road. This problem can be addressed using simulation model. Discrete Event Simulation Model was used to simulate import container flow processes in the container terminal and external yard. Optimum location configuration in the upper-level was the combinatorial problem, which was solved by Full Enumeration approach. The objective function of the external yard location model was to minimize user transport cost (or time) and to maximize operator benefit. Numerical experiment was run for the scenario assumption of two container handling ways, three external yards, and thirty-day simulation periods. Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) container characteristics data was referred for the simulation. Based on five runs which were 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 repetitions, operation one of three available external yards (external yard

  4. Applying high-frequency surrogate measurements and a wavelet-ANN model to provide early warnings of rapid surface water quality anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Bin; Wang, Peng; Jiang, Jiping; Liu, Rentao

    2018-01-01

    It is critical for surface water management systems to provide early warnings of abrupt, large variations in water quality, which likely indicate the occurrence of spill incidents. In this study, a combined approach integrating a wavelet artificial neural network (wavelet-ANN) model and high-frequency surrogate measurements is proposed as a method of water quality anomaly detection and warning provision. High-frequency time series of major water quality indexes (TN, TP, COD, etc.) were produced via a regression-based surrogate model. After wavelet decomposition and denoising, a low-frequency signal was imported into a back-propagation neural network for one-step prediction to identify the major features of water quality variations. The precisely trained site-specific wavelet-ANN outputs the time series of residual errors. A warning is triggered when the actual residual error exceeds a given threshold, i.e., baseline pattern, estimated based on long-term water quality variations. A case study based on the monitoring program applied to the Potomac River Basin in Virginia, USA, was conducted. The integrated approach successfully identified two anomaly events of TP variations at a 15-minute scale from high-frequency online sensors. A storm event and point source inputs likely accounted for these events. The results show that the wavelet-ANN model is slightly more accurate than the ANN for high-frequency surface water quality prediction, and it meets the requirements of anomaly detection. Analyses of the performance at different stations and over different periods illustrated the stability of the proposed method. By combining monitoring instruments and surrogate measures, the presented approach can support timely anomaly identification and be applied to urban aquatic environments for watershed management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Understanding exercise uptake and adherence for people with chronic conditions: a new model demonstrating the importance of exercise identity, benefits of attending and support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pentecost, C; Taket, A

    2011-10-01

    Understanding the factors influencing uptake and adherence to exercise for people with chronic conditions from different ages, genders and ethnicities is important for planning exercise services. This paper presents evidence supporting a new model of exercise uptake and adherence applicable to people with chronic conditions from diverse socio-demographic backgrounds. The study is based on 130 semi-structured interviews with people with chronic conditions, including both those who did and those who did not attend exercise services, and supporters of those who attended. Analysis followed the guidelines of 'framework analysis'. Results show that three factors were particularly important in influencing adherence behavior: (i) exercise identity, (ii) support and (iii) perceived benefits of attending. Social and cultural identities impacted on willingness to exercise, importance of exercise and perceived appropriateness of exercising. Having at least one supporter providing different types of support was associated with high levels of attendance. Those people who valued the social and psychological benefits of attending were more likely to be high attenders. The new model illustrates interaction between these three factors and discusses how these can be taken into account when planning exercise services for people with chronic conditions drawn from diverse socio-demographic groups.

  6. A Dynamic Model of the Duration of the Customer's Relationship with a Continuous Service Provider: The Role of Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Ruth N. Bolton

    1998-01-01

    Many service organizations have embraced relationship marketing with its focus on maximizing customer lifetime value. Recently, there has been considerable controversy about whether there is a link between customer satisfaction and retention. This research question is important to researchers who are attempting to understand how customers' assessments of services influence their subsequent behavior. However, it is equally vital to managers who require a better understanding of the relationshi...

  7. Mengukur Kesiapan Implementasi Customer Relationship Management (CRM Model Application Service Provider (ASP pada Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah (UMKM di Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rianto

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available UMKM menjadi penyumbang utama pendapatan nasional untuk suatu Negara, khususnya Negara berkembang. UMKM tumbuh dan menyerap banyak tenaga kerja dan menjadi roda perekonomian utama. Indonesia menjadi salah satu dari banyak negara, dimana UMKM memberikan banyak kontribusi pendapatan nasional dan penyerapan tenaga kerja. Dalam bisnis, perubahan diperlukan agar tetap hidup dan berkembang, dalam hal ini perubahan bisnis yang bersifat konvensional ke e-bisnis. Salah satunya adalah CRM, CRM telah banyak digunakan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan besar untuk mengembangkan bisnis mereka. Implementasi CRM membutuhkan modal yang besar, khususnya aplikasi CRM model tradisional. Dibandingkan dengan Model ASP, CRM model ini sangat sesuai untuk UMKM khususnya di Indonesia karena dari segi keuangan dapat dijangkau oleh UMKM di Indonesia. Pada penelitian ini sebanyak 30 UMKM tingkat menengah digunakan sebagai koresponden dan digunakan untuk mengukur kesiapan UMKM di Indonesia menggunakan teknologi CRM dengan model ASP. Dimana pada hasil penelitian mengenai kegiatan yang berhubungan dengan CRM dilihat dari dimensi intelektual, sosial dan teknologi masih terlihat sangat rendah.

  8. Hydrogeological modeling constraints provided by geophysical and geochemical mapping of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razafindratsima, Stephen; Guérin, Roger; Bendjoudi, Hocine; de Marsily, Ghislain

    2014-09-01

    A methodological approach is described which combines geophysical and geochemical data to delineate the extent of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France; the methodology was used to calibrate a hydrogeological model of the contaminants' migration and degradation. The existence of strong reducing conditions in some parts of the aquifer is first determined by measuring in situ the redox potential and dissolved oxygen, dissolved ferrous iron and chloride concentrations. Electrical resistivity imaging and electromagnetic mapping, using the Slingram method, are then used to determine the shape of the pollutant plume. A decreasing empirical exponential relation between measured chloride concentrations in the water and aquifer electrical resistivity is observed; the resistivity formation factor calculated at a few points also shows a major contribution of chloride concentration in the resistivity of the saturated porous medium. MODFLOW software and MT3D99 first-order parent-daughter chain reaction and the RT3D aerobic-anaerobic model for tetrachloroethene (PCE)/trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination are finally used for a first attempt at modeling the degradation of the chlorinated ethenes. After calibration, the distribution of the chlorinated ethenes and their degradation products simulated with the model approximately reflects the mean measured values in the observation wells, confirming the data-derived image of the plume.

  9. Mobilized peripheral blood stem cells provide rapid reconstitution but impaired long-term engraftment in a mouse model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yeoh, J. S. G.; Ausema, A.; Wierenga, P.; de Haan, G.; van Os, R.

    In this study, we use competitive repopulation to compare the quality and frequency of stem cells isolated from mobilized blood with stem cells isolated from bone marrow (BM) in a mouse model. Lin(-)Sca-1(+)c-Kit(+) (LSK) cells were harvested from control BM and peripheral blood of mice following

  10. Parameterizing road construction in route-based road weather models: can ground-penetrating radar provide any answers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, D. S.; Chapman, L.; Thornes, J. E.

    2011-05-01

    A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of a 32 km mixed urban and rural study route is undertaken to assess the usefulness of GPR as a tool for parameterizing road construction in a route-based road weather forecast model. It is shown that GPR can easily identify even the smallest of bridges along the route, which previous thermal mapping surveys have identified as thermal singularities with implications for winter road maintenance. Using individual GPR traces measured at each forecast point along the route, an inflexion point detection algorithm attempts to identify the depth of the uppermost subsurface layers at each forecast point for use in a road weather model instead of existing ordinal road-type classifications. This approach has the potential to allow high resolution modelling of road construction and bridge decks on a scale previously not possible within a road weather model, but initial results reveal that significant future research will be required to unlock the full potential that this technology can bring to the road weather industry.

  11. Parameterizing road construction in route-based road weather models: can ground-penetrating radar provide any answers?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammond, D S; Chapman, L; Thornes, J E

    2011-01-01

    A ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey of a 32 km mixed urban and rural study route is undertaken to assess the usefulness of GPR as a tool for parameterizing road construction in a route-based road weather forecast model. It is shown that GPR can easily identify even the smallest of bridges along the route, which previous thermal mapping surveys have identified as thermal singularities with implications for winter road maintenance. Using individual GPR traces measured at each forecast point along the route, an inflexion point detection algorithm attempts to identify the depth of the uppermost subsurface layers at each forecast point for use in a road weather model instead of existing ordinal road-type classifications. This approach has the potential to allow high resolution modelling of road construction and bridge decks on a scale previously not possible within a road weather model, but initial results reveal that significant future research will be required to unlock the full potential that this technology can bring to the road weather industry. (technical design note)

  12. Development of Model Systematic Trilateral Approach to Provide Continuing Education for Nursing Home and Small Hospital Personnel. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrader, Marvin A.; And Others

    The project was designed to determine the feasibility of having a vocational technical adult education (VTAE) district provide continuing education inservice training for health care facilities using videotape equipment so that employees could gain knowledge and skills without leaving the facility or having to involve time outside the normal…

  13. A friction model for cold forging of aluminum, steel and stainless steel provided with conversion coating and solid film lubricant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Niels; Eriksen, Morten; Tan, Xincai

    2011-01-01

    Adopting a simulative tribology test system for cold forging the friction stress for aluminum, steel and stainless steel provided with typical lubricants for cold forging has been determined for varying normal pressure, surface expansion, sliding length and tool/work piece interface temperature...

  14. LPS structure and PhoQ activity are important for Salmonella Typhimurium virulence in the Galleria mellonella infection model [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Bender

    Full Text Available The larvae of the wax moth, Galleria mellonella, have been used experimentally to host a range of bacterial and fungal pathogens. In this study we evaluated the suitability of G. mellonella as an alternative animal model of Salmonella infection. Using a range of inoculum doses we established that the LD₅₀ of SalmonellaTyphimurium strain NCTC 12023 was 3.6 × 10³ bacteria per larva. Further, a set of isogenic mutant strains depleted of known virulence factors was tested to identify determinants essential for S. Typhimurium pathogenesis. Mutants depleted of one or both of the type III secretion systems encoded by Salmonella Pathogenicity Islands 1 and 2 showed no virulence defect. In contrast, we observed reduced pathogenic potential of a phoQ mutant indicating an important role for the PhoPQ two-component signal transduction system. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS structure was also shown to influence Salmonella virulence in G. mellonella. A waaL(rfaL mutant, which lacks the entire O-antigen (OAg, was virtually avirulent, while a wzz(ST/wzz(fepE double mutant expressing only a very short OAg was highly attenuated for virulence. Furthermore, shortly after infection both LPS mutant strains showed decreased replication when compared to the wild type in a flow cytometry-based competitive index assay. In this study we successfully established a G. mellonella model of S. Typhimurium infection. By identifying PhoQ and LPS OAg length as key determinants of virulence in the wax moth larvae we proved that there is an overlap between this and other animal model systems, thus confirming that the G. mellonella infection model is suitable for assessing aspects of Salmonella virulence function.

  15. On the importance of accounting for competing risks in pediatric brain cancer: II. Regression modeling and sample size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard; Machin, David

    2011-03-15

    To accurately model the cumulative need for radiotherapy in trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, it is crucial to account for competing events and evaluate how each contributes to the timing of irradiation. An appropriate choice of statistical model is also important for adequate determination of sample size. We describe the statistical modeling of competing events (A, radiotherapy after progression; B, no radiotherapy after progression; and C, elective radiotherapy) using proportional cause-specific and subdistribution hazard functions. The procedures of sample size estimation based on each method are outlined. These are illustrated by use of data comparing children with ependymoma and other malignant brain tumors. The results from these two approaches are compared. The cause-specific hazard analysis showed a reduction in hazards among infants with ependymoma for all event types, including Event A (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.28). Conversely, the subdistribution hazard analysis suggested an increase in hazard for Event A (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-2.30), but the reduction in hazards for Events B and C remained. Analysis based on subdistribution hazard requires a larger sample size than the cause-specific hazard approach. Notable differences in effect estimates and anticipated sample size were observed between methods when the main event showed a beneficial effect whereas the competing events showed an adverse effect on the cumulative incidence. The subdistribution hazard is the most appropriate for modeling treatment when its effects on both the main and competing events are of interest. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The primary care prescribing psychologist model: medical provider ratings of the safety, impact and utility of prescribing psychology in a primary care setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, David S; Harmon, S Cory; Seavey, Brian M; Tiu, Alvin Y

    2012-12-01

    Family medicine providers at a large family medicine clinic were surveyed regarding their impression of the impact, utility and safety of the Primary Care Prescribing Psychologist (PCPP) model in which a prescribing psychologist is embedded in a primary care clinic. This article describes the model and provides indications of its strengths and weaknesses as reported by medical providers who have utilized the model for the past 2 years. A brief history of prescribing psychology and the challenges surrounding granting psychologists the authority to prescribe psychotropic medication is summarized. Results indicate family medicine providers agree that having a prescribing psychologist embedded in the family medicine clinic is helpful to their practice, safe for patients, convenient for providers and for patients, and improves patient care. Potential benefits of integrating prescribing psychology into primary care are considered and directions for future research are discussed.

  17. An adult osteopetrosis model in medaka reveals the importance of osteoclast function for bone remodeling in teleost fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Thuy Thanh; Witten, Paul Eckhard; Huysseune, Ann; Winkler, Christoph

    2015-12-01

    Osteoclasts play important roles during bone growth and in maintaining bone health and bone homeostasis. Dysfunction or lack of osteoclasts leads to increased bone mass and osteopetrosis phenotypes in mouse and human. Here we report a severe osteopetrosis-like phenotype in transgenic medaka fish, in which membrane bound EGFP (mEGFP) was expressed in osteoclasts under control of the cathepsin K promoter (ctsk:mEGFP). In contrast to reporter lines with GFP expression in the cytoplasm of osteoclasts, adult fish of the mEGFP line developed bone defects indicative for an osteoclast dysfunction. Activity of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) was down-regulated and excess bone was observed in most parts of the skeleton. The osteopetrotic phenotype was particularly obvious at the neural and haemal arches that failed to increase their volume in growing fish. Excess bone caused severe constriction of the spinal cord and the ventral aorta. The continuation of tooth development and the failure to shed teeth resulted in severe hyperdontia. Interestingly, at the vertebral column vertebral body arches displayed a severe osteopetrosis, while vertebral centra had no or only a mild osteopetrotic phenotype. This confirms previous reports from cichlids that, different from the arches, allometric growth of fish vertebral centra initially does not depend on the action of osteoclasts. Independent developmental mechanism that shapes arches and vertebral centra can also lend support to the hypothesis that vertebral centra and arches function as independent developmental modules. Together, this medaka osteopetrosis model confirms the importance of proper osteoclast function during normal skeletal development in teleost fish that requires bone modeling and remodeling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A Novel Zebrafish Model to Provide Mechanistic Insights into the Inflammatory Events in Carrageenan-Induced Abdominal Edema

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shi-Ying; Feng, Chien-Wei; Hung, Han-Chun; Chakraborty, Chiranjib; Chen, Chun-Hong; Chen, Wu-Fu; Jean, Yen-Hsuan; Wang, Hui-Min David; Sung, Chun-Sung; Sun, Yu-Min; Wu, Chang-Yi; Liu, Wangta; Hsiao, Chung-Der; Wen, Zhi-Hong

    2014-01-01

    A suitable small animal model may help in the screening and evaluation of new drugs, especially those from natural products, which can be administered at lower dosages, fulfilling an urgent worldwide need. In this study, we explore whether zebrafish could be a model organism for carrageenan-induced abdominal edema. The research results showed that intraperitoneal (i.p.) administration of 1.5% λ-carrageenan in a volume of 20 µL significantly increased abdominal edema in adult zebrafish. Levels of the proinflammatory proteins tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) were increased in carrageenan-injected adult zebrafish during the development of abdominal edema. An associated enhancement was also observed in the leukocyte marker, myeloperoxidase (MPO). To support these results, we further observed that i.p. methylprednisolone (MP