Costs of detection bias in index-based population monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, C.T.; Kendall, W.L.

2004-01-01

Managers of wildlife populations commonly rely on indirect, count-based measures of the population in making decisions regarding conservation, harvest, or control. The main appeal in the use of such counts is their low material expense compared to methods that directly measure the population. However, their correct use rests on the rarely-tested but often-assumed premise that they proportionately reflect population size, i.e., that they constitute a population index. This study investigates forest management for the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) and the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia, U.S.A. Optimal decision policies for a joint species objective were derived for two alternative models of Wood Thrush population dynamics. Policies were simulated under scenarios of unbiasedness, consistent negative bias, and habitat-dependent negative bias in observed Wood Thrush densities. Differences in simulation outcomes between biased and unbiased detection scenarios indicated the expected loss in resource objectives (here, forest habitat and birds) through decision-making based on biased population counts. Given the models and objective function used in our analysis, expected losses were as great as 11%, a degree of loss perhaps not trivial for applications such as endangered species management. Our analysis demonstrates that costs of uncertainty about the relationship between the population and its observation can be measured in units of the resource, costs which may offset apparent savings achieved by collecting uncorrected population counts.

Nucleolar organizer regions in Sittasomus griseicapillus and Lepidocolaptes angustirostris (Aves, Dendrocolaptidae): Evidence of a chromosome inversion.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira Barbosa, Marcelo; da Silva, Rubens Rodrigues; de Sena Correia, Vanessa Carolina; Dos Santos, Luana Pereira; Garnero, Analía Del Valle; Gunski, Ricardo José

2013-03-01

Cytogenetic studies in birds are still scarce compared to other vertebrates. Woodcreepers (Dendrocolaptidae) are part of a highly specialized group within the Suboscines of the New World. They are forest birds exclusive to the Neotropical region and similar to woodpeckers, at a comparable evolutionary stage. This paper describes for the first time the karyotypes of the Olivaceous and the Narrow-billed Woodcreeper using conventional staining with Giemsa and silver nitrate staining of the nucleolar organizer regions (Ag-NORs). Metaphases were obtained by fibular bone marrow culture. The chromosome number of the Olivaceous Woodcreeper was 2n = 82 and of the Narrow-billed Woodcreeper, 2n = 82. Ag-NORs in the largest macrochromosome pair and evidence of a chromosome inversion are described herein for the first time for this group.

Nucleolar organizer regions in Sittasomus griseicapillus and Lepidocolaptes angustirostris (Aves, Dendrocolaptidae: evidence of a chromosome inversion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo de Oliveira Barbosa

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Cytogenetic studies in birds are still scarce compared to other vertebrates. Woodcreepers (Dendrocolaptidae are part of a highly specialized group within the Suboscines of the New World. They are forest birds exclusive to the Neotropical region and similar to woodpeckers, at a comparable evolutionary stage. This paper describes for the first time the karyotypes of the Olivaceous and the Narrow-billed Woodcreeper using conventional staining with Giemsa and silver nitrate staining of the nucleolar organizer regions (Ag-NORs. Metaphases were obtained by fibular bone marrow culture. The chromosome number of the Olivaceous Woodcreeper was 2n = 82 and of the Narrow-billed Woodcreeper, 2n = 82. Ag-NORs in the largest macrochromosome pair and evidence of a chromosome inversion are described herein for the first time for this group.

Winter Responses of Forest Birds to Habitat Corridors and Gaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colleen Cassady St. Clair

1998-12-01

Full Text Available Forest fragmentation and habitat loss may disrupt the movement or dispersal of forest-dwelling birds. Despite much interest in the severity of these effects and ways of mitigating them, little is known about actual movement patterns in different habitat types. We studied the movement of wintering resident birds, lured by playbacks of mobbing calls, to compare the willingness of forest birds to travel various distances in continuous forest, along narrow corridors (fencerows, and across gaps in forest cover. We also quantified the willingness of Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus to cross gaps when alternative forested detour routes were available. All species were less likely to respond to the calls as distance increased to 200 m, although White-breasted Nuthatches (Sitta carolinensis and Hairy Woodpeckers (Picoides villosus were generally less likely to respond than chickadees and Downy Woodpeckers (P. pubescens. Chickadees were as likely to travel in corridors as in continuous forest, but were less likely to cross gaps as the gap distance increased. The other species were less willing to travel in corridors and gaps relative to forest, and the differences among habitats also increased with distance. For chickadees, gap-crossing decisions in the presence of forested detours varied over the range of distances that we tested, and were primarily influenced by detour efficiency (the length of the shortcut relative to the available detour. Over short distances, birds used forested detours, regardless of their efficiency. As absolute distances increased, birds tended to employ larger shortcuts in the open when detour efficiency was low or initial distance in the open was high, but they limited their distance from the nearest forest edge to 25 m. Thus, chickadees were unwilling to cross gaps of > 50 m when they had forested alternatives, yet they sometimes crossed gaps as large as 200 m when no such choice existed. Our results suggest that

Habitats and landscapes associated with bird species in a lowland conifer-dominated ecosystem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmund J. Zlonis

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Human-induced effects on lowland conifer forests in hemiboreal regions are increasing because of expanded use of these northern ecosystems for raw materials, energy, and minerals as well as the potential effects of climatic changes. These forests support many breeding bird species across the Holarctic and allow the persistence of several boreal bird species in hemiboreal and even temperate regions. These bird species are of particular conservation concern as shifting patterns northward in forest composition caused by climate change will likely affect their populations. However, effective management and conservation options are limited because the specifics of these species' breeding habitats are not well understood. We modeled and mapped habitat suitability for 11 species of boreal birds that breed in the lowland conifer forests of the Agassiz Lowlands Ecological Subsection in northern Minnesota and are likely to have reduced breeding habitat in the future: Spruce Grouse (Falcipennis canadensis, Black-backed Woodpecker (Picoides arcticus, Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher (Empidonax flaviventris, Boreal Chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus, Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa, Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula, Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus, Connecticut Warbler (Oporornis agilis, Palm Warbler (Setophaga palmarum, and Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis. Sets of 7 to 16 potential environmental covariates, including both stand-level and landscape attributes, were used to develop individual species models. Within this lowland conifer-dominated ecosystem, we found significant selection for specific forest and landscape characteristics by all but one of these species, with the best models including between one and nine variables. Habitat suitability maps were developed from these models and predictions tested with an independent dataset. Model performance depended on species, correctly predicting 56-96% of

Monitoring Forsmark - Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Green, Martin [Dept of Biology, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)

2013-03-15

This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002 - 2012. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2012 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from 2012 generally follow patterns recorded in earlier years. 2012 was in general a better bird year compared to 2010 and 2011 and most species (82%) showed increasing or stable numbers from 2011 to 2012. Only two species (18%) decreased in numbers between the last two years. All in all, six species (55 %, black-throated diver, honey buzzard, black grouse, ural owl, wryneck and red-backed shrike) show no significant trends since the start of the bird monitoring (2002/2003/2004 depending on species). During this period three species (27 %, white-tailed eagle, osprey and lesser spotted woodpecker) have increased in numbers while just two (18 %, capercaillie and hazelhen) have decreased. A new pair of black-throated divers was discovered in 2012 and seven resident pairs were registered. Breeding success was very good, the second best during the study period. Population development follows the national pattern, but breeding success seems to be better in Forsmark than in the country as a whole. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, and breeding success for ospreys was good. No signs of successful breedings of honey buzzards were recorded, but this may mean little as no detailed monitoring of breeding success is made for this species. The white-tailed eagles had their best breeding year since the start of the SKB bird monitoring, meaning that during the last two years local breeding success has been back at the level recorded before the site investigations started. The three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) again showed somewhat varying patterns between the last two years as well as in the long run. The black grouse increased

Monitoring Forsmark-Bird monitoring in Forsmark 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, Martin

2013-03-01

This report summarizes the monitoring of selected listed (Swedish Red List and/or the EU Birds directive) breeding birds in Forsmark 2002 - 2012. Monitoring of eleven listed species was conducted in the regional model area, including the candidate area in 2012 in the same way as in earlier years. The results from 2012 generally follow patterns recorded in earlier years. 2012 was in general a better bird year compared to 2010 and 2011 and most species (82%) showed increasing or stable numbers from 2011 to 2012. Only two species (18%) decreased in numbers between the last two years. All in all, six species (55 %, black-throated diver, honey buzzard, black grouse, ural owl, wryneck and red-backed shrike) show no significant trends since the start of the bird monitoring (2002/2003/2004 depending on species). During this period three species (27 %, white-tailed eagle, osprey and lesser spotted woodpecker) have increased in numbers while just two (18 %, capercaillie and hazelhen) have decreased. A new pair of black-throated divers was discovered in 2012 and seven resident pairs were registered. Breeding success was very good, the second best during the study period. Population development follows the national pattern, but breeding success seems to be better in Forsmark than in the country as a whole. Honey buzzards and ospreys occurred in good numbers, and breeding success for ospreys was good. No signs of successful breedings of honey buzzards were recorded, but this may mean little as no detailed monitoring of breeding success is made for this species. The white-tailed eagles had their best breeding year since the start of the SKB bird monitoring, meaning that during the last two years local breeding success has been back at the level recorded before the site investigations started. The three grouse species (black grouse, capercaillie and hazelhen) again showed somewhat varying patterns between the last two years as well as in the long run. The black grouse increased

Hummingbirds have a greatly enlarged hippocampal formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Brian J; Day, Lainy B; Wilkening, Steven R; Wylie, Douglas R; Saucier, Deborah M; Iwaniuk, Andrew N

2012-08-23

Both field and laboratory studies demonstrate that hummingbirds (Apodiformes, Trochilidae) have exceptional spatial memory. The complexity of spatial-temporal information that hummingbirds must retain and use daily is probably subserved by the hippocampal formation (HF), and therefore, hummingbirds should have a greatly expanded HF. Here, we compare the relative size of the HF in several hummingbird species with that of other birds. Our analyses reveal that the HF in hummingbirds is significantly larger, relative to telencephalic volume, than any bird examined to date. When expressed as a percentage of telencephalic volume, the hummingbird HF is two to five times larger than that of caching and non-caching songbirds, seabirds and woodpeckers. This HF expansion in hummingbirds probably underlies their ability to remember the location, distribution and nectar content of flowers, but more detailed analyses are required to determine the extent to which this arises from an expansion of HF or a decrease in size of other brain regions.

Fibreglass as an alternative to wood poles : Transmission and distribution poles and crossarms : use of fiber reinforced composite materials for overhead electric utility lines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiles, J.R. [Shakespeare Composites and Electronics, Newberry, SC (United States)

2002-07-01

For over thirty years, Shakespeare Composites and Electronics has manufactured fiberglass composite lighting and utility poles, as well as being the number one maker of composite crossarms. Composite poles have a few advantages, such as being lightweight, they do no rust, are woodpecker and termite resistant, use no harmful chemicals, and have long life. A chart displaying the comparative pole weights is presented. The key design factors of fiberglass composite utility poles are: pole diameter, fiberglass type and wind angle, layers (thickness) of fiberglass, resin type and formulation, resin mix consistency, cure cycle and maximum curing temperature, and others. Two charts were also displayed presenting 40 feet class 4 pole bending strengths and 40 feet class 2 pole bending strengths. The author indicated that composite poles have a better strength consistency than wood, while being as consistent as steel and prestressed concrete. The design is based on an overload factor of safety of 2.5 for numerous installations. Some of the analytical methods used include mechanical testing, finite element modeling, and thermal analysis. The author describes in detail the concerns associated with attachments. Coating consists of a system of ultra violet blockers in the resin followed by an added resin rich polyester veil outer surface. In addition, there is a proprietary coating process with additional ultra violet blockers. Quality control is effected at the plant. The weathering system lasts 80 years. figs.

Apparent foraging success reflects habitat quality in an irruptive species, the Black-backed Woodpecker

Science.gov (United States)

Christopher T. Rota; Mark A. Rumble; Chad P. Lehman; Dylan C. Kesler; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2015-01-01

Dramatic fluctuations in food resources are a key feature of many habitats, and many species have evolved a movement strategy to exploit food resources that are unpredictable in space and time. The availability of food resources may be a particularly strong determinant of habitat quality for irruptive bird species. We studied the apparent foraging success of Black-...

Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American forests

Science.gov (United States)

Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A.

2014-01-01

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1‐30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB

Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) Report; Precious Lands Wildlife Management Area, Technical Report 2000-2003.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kozusko, Shana

2003-12-01

The Nez Perce Tribe (NPT) currently manages a 15,325 acre parcel of land known as the Precious Lands Wildlife Management Area that was purchased as mitigation for losses incurred by construction of the four lower Snake River dams. The Management Area is located in northern Wallowa County, Oregon and southern Asotin County, Washington (Figure 1). It is divided into three management parcels--the Buford parcel is located on Buford Creek and straddles the WA-OR state line, and the Tamarack and Basin parcels are contiguous to each other and located between the Joseph Creek and Cottonwood Creek drainages in Wallowa County, OR. The project was developed under the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act of 1980 (P.L. 96-501), with funding from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The acreage protected under this contract will be credited to BPA as habitat permanently dedicated to wildlife and wildlife mitigation. A modeling strategy known as Habitat Evaluation Procedure (HEP) was developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by BPA as a habitat equivalency accounting system. Nine wildlife species models were used to evaluate distinct cover type features and provide a measure of habitat quality. Models measure a wide range of life requisite variables for each species and monitor overall trends in vegetation community health and diversity. One product of HEP is an evaluation of habitat quality expressed in Habitat Units (HUs). This HU accounting system is used to determine the amount of credit BPA receives for mitigation lands. After construction of the four lower Snake River dams, a HEP loss assessment was conducted to determine how many Habitat Units were inundated behind the dams. Twelve target species were used in that evaluation: Canada goose, mallard, river otter, downy woodpecker, song sparrow, yellow warbler, marsh wren, western meadowlark, chukar, ring-necked pheasant, California quail, and mule deer. The U.S. Army Corp of

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

Science.gov (United States)

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junior A Tremblay

Full Text Available Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change" were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus, a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5. However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of

Managing Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda) Stands for the Restoration of Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-01

hydrometer method (Milford 1997). Climate data from the study period was obtained from the National Climatic Data Center web service, with data for...texture of each plot using the hydrometer method (Milford 1997) and classified soil texture following the USDA soil classification system. Foliar

A New Species of Pengornithidae (Aves: Enantiornithes) from the Lower Cretaceous of China Suggests a Specialized Scansorial Habitat Previously Unknown in Early Birds

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Han; O’Connor, Jingmai K.; Zhou, Zhonghe

2015-01-01

We describe a new enantiornithine bird, Parapengornis eurycaudatus gen. et sp. nov. from the Lower Cretaceous Jiufotang Formation of Liaoning, China. Although morphologically similar to previously described pengornithids Pengornis houi, Pengornis IVPP V18632, and Eopengornis martini, morphological differences indicate it represents a new taxon of the Pengornithidae. Based on new information from this specimen we reassign IVPP V18632 to Parapengornis sp. The well preserved pygostyle of the new specimen elucidates the morphology of this element for the clade, which is unique in pengornithids among Mesozoic birds. Similarities with modern scansores such as woodpeckers may indicate a specialized vertical climbing and clinging behavior that has not previously been inferred for early birds. The new specimen preserves a pair of fully pennaceous rachis-dominated feathers like those in the holotype of Eopengornis martini; together with the unique morphology of the pygostyle, this discovery lends evidence to early hypotheses that rachis-dominated feathers may have had a functional significance. This discovery adds to the diversity of ecological niches occupied by enantiornithines and if correct reveals are remarkable amount of locomotive differentiation among Enantiornithes. PMID:26039693

A new species of pengornithidae (aves: enantiornithes from the lower cretaceous of China suggests a specialized scansorial habitat previously unknown in early birds.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Han Hu

Full Text Available We describe a new enantiornithine bird, Parapengornis eurycaudatus gen. et sp. nov. from the Lower Cretaceous Jiufotang Formation of Liaoning, China. Although morphologically similar to previously described pengornithids Pengornis houi, Pengornis IVPP V18632, and Eopengornis martini, morphological differences indicate it represents a new taxon of the Pengornithidae. Based on new information from this specimen we reassign IVPP V18632 to Parapengornis sp. The well preserved pygostyle of the new specimen elucidates the morphology of this element for the clade, which is unique in pengornithids among Mesozoic birds. Similarities with modern scansores such as woodpeckers may indicate a specialized vertical climbing and clinging behavior that has not previously been inferred for early birds. The new specimen preserves a pair of fully pennaceous rachis-dominated feathers like those in the holotype of Eopengornis martini; together with the unique morphology of the pygostyle, this discovery lends evidence to early hypotheses that rachis-dominated feathers may have had a functional significance. This discovery adds to the diversity of ecological niches occupied by enantiornithines and if correct reveals are remarkable amount of locomotive differentiation among Enantiornithes.

Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) Report : Hellsgate Project, 1999-2000 Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berger, Matthew

2000-05-01

A Habitat Evaluation Procedure (HEP) study was conducted on lands acquired and/or managed (4,568 acres total) by the Hellsgate Big Game Winter Range Wildlife Mitigation Project (Hellsgate project) to mitigate some of the losses associated with the original construction and operation of Grand Coulee Dam and inundation of habitats behind the dams. Three separate properties, totaling 2,224 acres were purchased in 1998. One property composed of two separate parcels, mostly grassland lies southeast of the town of Nespelem in Okanogan County (770 acres) and was formerly called the Hinman property. The former Hinman property lies within an area the Tribes have set aside for the protection and preservation of the sharp-tailed grouse (Agency Butte unit). This special management area minus the Hinman acquisition contains 2,388 acres in a long-term lease with the Tribes. The second property lies just south of the Silver Creek turnoff (Ferry County) and is bisected by the Hellsgate Road (part of the Friedlander unit). This parcel contains 60 acres of riparian and conifer forest cover. The third property (now named the Sand Hills unit) acquired for mitigation (1,394 acres) lies within the Hellsgate Reserve in Ferry County. This new acquisition links two existing mitigation parcels (the old Sand Hills parcels and the Lundstrum Flat parcel, all former Kuehne purchases) together forming one large unit. HEP team members included individuals from the Colville Confederated Tribes Fish and Wildlife Department (CTCR), Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), and Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The HEP team conducted a baseline habitat survey using the following HEP species models: mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), mink (Mustela vison), downy woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), bobcat (Lynx rufus), yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia), and sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus). HEP analysis and results are discussed within the body of the text. The cover types

Resource quantity and quality determine the inter-specific associations between ecosystem engineers and resource users in a cavity-nest web.

Science.gov (United States)

Robles, Hugo; Martin, Kathy

2013-01-01

While ecosystem engineering is a widespread structural force of ecological communities, the mechanisms underlying the inter-specific associations between ecosystem engineers and resource users are poorly understood. A proper knowledge of these mechanisms is, however, essential to understand how communities are structured. Previous studies suggest that increasing the quantity of resources provided by ecosystem engineers enhances populations of resource users. In a long-term study (1995-2011), we show that the quality of the resources (i.e. tree cavities) provided by ecosystem engineers is also a key feature that explains the inter-specific associations in a tree cavity-nest web. Red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicusnuchalis) provided the most abundant cavities (52% of cavities, 0.49 cavities/ha). These cavities were less likely to be used than other cavity types by mountain bluebirds (Sialiacurrucoides), but provided numerous nest-sites (41% of nesting cavities) to tree swallows (Tachycinetabicolour). Swallows experienced low reproductive outputs in northern flicker (Colaptesauratus) cavities compared to those in sapsucker cavities (1.1 vs. 2.1 fledglings/nest), but the highly abundant flickers (33% of cavities, 0.25 cavities/ha) provided numerous suitable nest-sites for bluebirds (58%). The relative shortage of cavities supplied by hairy woodpeckers (Picoidesvillosus) and fungal/insect decay (high quality nest-sites for both bluebirds and swallows. Because both the quantity and quality of resources supplied by different ecosystem engineers may explain the amount of resources used by each resource user, conservation strategies may require different management actions to be implemented for the key ecosystem engineer of each resource user. We, therefore, urge the incorporation of both resource quantity and quality into models that assess community dynamics to improve conservation actions and our understanding of ecological communities based on ecosystem engineering.

Model-model Perencanaan Strategik

OpenAIRE

Amirin, Tatang M

2005-01-01

The process of strategic planning, used to be called as long-term planning, consists of several components, including strategic analysis, setting strategic direction (covering of mission, vision, and values), and action planning. Many writers develop models representing the steps of the strategic planning process, i.e. basic planning model, problem-based planning model, scenario model, and organic or self-organizing model.

Model-to-model interface for multiscale materials modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antonelli, Perry Edward [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2017-12-17

A low-level model-to-model interface is presented that will enable independent models to be linked into an integrated system of models. The interface is based on a standard set of functions that contain appropriate export and import schemas that enable models to be linked with no changes to the models themselves. These ideas are presented in the context of a specific multiscale material problem that couples atomistic-based molecular dynamics calculations to continuum calculations of fluid ow. These simulations will be used to examine the influence of interactions of the fluid with an adjacent solid on the fluid ow. The interface will also be examined by adding it to an already existing modeling code, Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) and comparing it with our own molecular dynamics code.

Fiscal 1995 geothermal development promotion survey. Natural environment survey report; 1995 nendo chinetsu kaihatsu sokushin chosa. Shizen kankyo chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

In Candidate C area for the geothermal development survey, the natural environment was surveyed and `the secondary landscape assessment` was summed up in which places proposed for drilling of large-size wells and for construction of power generation facilities are extracted and a simulation of the landscape is conducted. The area for survey is the Shiramizu-gawa region in the south of Lake Akan, Akan-cho, Akan-gun, Hokkaido. The field survey was carried out about three items of landscape, plants and animals during the June-November period, 1995. As to the flora, diverse florae including vegetation unique to alpine areas, wetlands, and fumarole surrounding areas were found in the region, which is covered with summer-green broad-leaved forests or mixed forests of coniferous and broad-leaved trees. As to the fauna, faunae inhabitant of the highly natural forests were found including black woodpeckers and mountain hawk eagles. As a result of studying the places proposed for geothermal development from the above-mentioned survey, two places were picked up in the west of the survey area, where geothermal development is comparatively less influential in the natural environment and landscape and there is a high locational adaptability. 19 refs., 56 figs., 49 tabs.

Recreationists’ Perceptions of Scenic Beauty and Satisfaction at a Public Forest Managed for Endangered Wildlife

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramesh Paudyal

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Prescribed burning and other active forest management treatments have been proven essential for maintaining suitable habitat conditions for many wildlife species, including the federally endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW. This study examines the perception of forest management treatments of recreation users participating in various activities (hunting, hiking/backpacking, camping, off-highway vehicle riding, and canoeing/kayaking in terms of scenic beauty and recreation satisfaction. We used photographic images to capture various forest management treatments of different intensity levels and times after treatments, and assessed users’ perception of scenic beauty and recreation satisfaction. Results indicated variation among users participating in different recreation activities, but that good quality RCW habitats offered both higher scenic beauty and higher recreation satisfaction than poor quality habitats for most activity user groups. Finally, recreation satisfaction was statistically equal to perceived scenic beauty from both good and poor-quality RCW habitats for most of the activity user groups, thus suggesting the importance of scenic beauty of forest sites in determining recreation users’ attainment of visit satisfaction. Findings conclude that forest sites developed as good quality RCW habitats in the present state also offer quality experience to recreation users, thus supporting multi-objective forestry practices in public forests.

Experimental evidence of impacts of an invasive parakeet on foraging behavior of native birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Peck, Hannah L; Pringle, Henrietta E; Marshall, Harry H; Owens, Ian P F; Lord, Alexa M

2014-05-01

Resource competition is one potential behavioral mechanism by which invasive species can impact native species, but detecting this competition can be difficult due to the interactions that variable environmental conditions can have on species behavior. This is particularly the case in urban habitats where the disturbed environment can alter natural behavior from that in undisturbed habitats. The rose-ringed parakeet ( Psittacula krameri ), is an increasingly common invasive species, predominantly associated with large urban centers. Using an experimental approach, we tested the behavioral responses of native garden birds in response to the presence of a rose-ringed parakeet versus the presence of a similarly sized and dominant native bird, the great spotted woodpecker ( Dendrocopos major ). Parakeet presence significantly reduced feeding rates and increased vigilance among native birds compared with our control treatments. Of visits made by native birds in the presence of a parakeet, feeding was more likely to occur in sites within the parakeet range compared with sites outside, suggesting some habituation of native birds has occurred following prior exposure to parakeets but overall foraging behavior is still disrupted. The results of our study suggest that nonnative species can have complex and subtle impacts on native fauna and show that a nonnative competitor can impact native species simply through their presence near resources.

Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

2016-03-01

The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework.

The Role of Dead Wood in Maintaining Arthropod Diversity on the Forest Floor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanula, James L. [Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Athens, GA (United States). Southern Research Station; Horn, Scott [Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Athens, GA (United States). Southern Research Station; Wade, Dale D. [Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Athens, GA (United States). Southern Research Station

2006-08-01

Dead wood is a major component of forests and contributes to overall diversity, primarily by supporting insects that feed directly on or in it. Further, a variety of organisms benefit by feeding on those insects. What is not well known is how or whether dead wood influences the composition of the arthropod community that is not solely dependent on it as a food resource, or whether woody debris influences prey available to generalist predators. One group likely to be affected by dead wood is ground-dwelling arthropods. We studied the effect of adding large dead wood to unburned and frequently burned pine stands to determine if dead wood was used more when the litter and understory plant community are removed. We also studied the effect of annual removal of dead wood from large (10-ha) plots over a 5-year period on ground-dwelling arthropods. In related studies, we examined the relationships among an endangered woodpecker that forages for prey on live trees, its prey, and dead wood in the forest. Finally, the results of these and other studies show that dead wood can influence the abundance and diversity of the ground-dwelling arthropod community and of prey available to generalist predators not foraging directly on dead trees.

A low false negative filter for detecting rare bird species from short video segments using a probable observation data set-based EKF method.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Dezhen; Xu, Yiliang

2010-09-01

We report a new filter to assist the search for rare bird species. Since a rare bird only appears in front of a camera with very low occurrence (e.g., less than ten times per year) for very short duration (e.g., less than a fraction of a second), our algorithm must have a very low false negative rate. We verify the bird body axis information with the known bird flying dynamics from the short video segment. Since a regular extended Kalman filter (EKF) cannot converge due to high measurement error and limited data, we develop a novel probable observation data set (PODS)-based EKF method. The new PODS-EKF searches the measurement error range for all probable observation data that ensures the convergence of the corresponding EKF in short time frame. The algorithm has been extensively tested using both simulated inputs and real video data of four representative bird species. In the physical experiments, our algorithm has been tested on rock pigeons and red-tailed hawks with 119 motion sequences. The area under the ROC curve is 95.0%. During the one-year search of ivory-billed woodpeckers, the system reduces the raw video data of 29.41 TB to only 146.7 MB (reduction rate 99.9995%).

Models and role models.

Science.gov (United States)

ten Cate, Jacob M

2015-01-01

Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of action and was also utilized for the formulation of oral care products. In addition, we made use of intra-oral (in situ) models to study other features of the oral environment that drive the de/remineralization balance in individual patients. This model addressed basic questions, such as how enamel and dentine are affected by challenges in the oral cavity, as well as practical issues related to fluoride toothpaste efficacy. The observation that perhaps fluoride is not sufficiently potent to reduce dental caries in the present-day society triggered us to expand our knowledge in the bacterial aetiology of dental caries. For this we developed the Amsterdam Active Attachment biofilm model. Different from studies on planktonic ('single') bacteria, this biofilm model captures bacteria in a habitat similar to dental plaque. With data from the combination of these models, it should be possible to study separate processes which together may lead to dental caries. Also products and novel agents could be evaluated that interfere with either of the processes. Having these separate models in place, a suggestion is made to design computer models to encompass the available information. Models but also role models are of the utmost importance in bringing and guiding research and researchers. 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel

Hydrological models are mediating models

Science.gov (United States)

Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

2013-08-01

Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

Modeling Documents with Event Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Longhui Wang

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Currently deep learning has made great breakthroughs in visual and speech processing, mainly because it draws lessons from the hierarchical mode that brain deals with images and speech. In the field of NLP, a topic model is one of the important ways for modeling documents. Topic models are built on a generative model that clearly does not match the way humans write. In this paper, we propose Event Model, which is unsupervised and based on the language processing mechanism of neurolinguistics, to model documents. In Event Model, documents are descriptions of concrete or abstract events seen, heard, or sensed by people and words are objects in the events. Event Model has two stages: word learning and dimensionality reduction. Word learning is to learn semantics of words based on deep learning. Dimensionality reduction is the process that representing a document as a low dimensional vector by a linear mode that is completely different from topic models. Event Model achieves state-of-the-art results on document retrieval tasks.

Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2016-01-01

In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

Vector models and generalized SYK models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peng, Cheng [Department of Physics, Brown University,Providence RI 02912 (United States)

2017-05-23

We consider the relation between SYK-like models and vector models by studying a toy model where a tensor field is coupled with a vector field. By integrating out the tensor field, the toy model reduces to the Gross-Neveu model in 1 dimension. On the other hand, a certain perturbation can be turned on and the toy model flows to an SYK-like model at low energy. A chaotic-nonchaotic phase transition occurs as the sign of the perturbation is altered. We further study similar models that possess chaos and enhanced reparameterization symmetries.

[Bone remodeling and modeling/mini-modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Tomoka; Amizuka, Norio

Modeling, adapting structures to loading by changing bone size and shapes, often takes place in bone of the fetal and developmental stages, while bone remodeling-replacement of old bone into new bone-is predominant in the adult stage. Modeling can be divided into macro-modeling(macroscopic modeling)and mini-modeling(microscopic modeling). In the cellular process of mini-modeling, unlike bone remodeling, bone lining cells, i.e., resting flattened osteoblasts covering bone surfaces will become active form of osteoblasts, and then, deposit new bone onto the old bone without mediating osteoclastic bone resorption. Among the drugs for osteoporotic treatment, eldecalcitol(a vitamin D3 analog)and teriparatide(human PTH[1-34])could show mini-modeling based bone formation. Histologically, mature, active form of osteoblasts are localized on the new bone induced by mini-modeling, however, only a few cell layer of preosteoblasts are formed over the newly-formed bone, and accordingly, few osteoclasts are present in the region of mini-modeling. In this review, histological characteristics of bone remodeling and modeling including mini-modeling will be introduced.

ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clinton Lum

2002-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

Automated protein structure modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordoli, Lorenza; Schwede, Torsten

2012-01-01

Comparative protein structure modeling is a computational approach to build three-dimensional structural models for proteins using experimental structures of related protein family members as templates. Regular blind assessments of modeling accuracy have demonstrated that comparative protein structure modeling is currently the most reliable technique to model protein structures. Homology models are often sufficiently accurate to substitute for experimental structures in a wide variety of applications. Since the usefulness of a model for specific application is determined by its accuracy, model quality estimation is an essential component of protein structure prediction. Comparative protein modeling has become a routine approach in many areas of life science research since fully automated modeling systems allow also nonexperts to build reliable models. In this chapter, we describe practical approaches for automated protein structure modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal.

Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R. Clayton

2000-12-19

The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clayton, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and

Model(ing) Law

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlson, Kerstin

The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first and most celebrated of a wave of international criminal tribunals (ICTs) built in the 1990s designed to advance liberalism through international criminal law. Model(ing) Justice examines the case law of the ICTY...

Comparisons of Multilevel Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling Approaches to Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sehee; Kim, Soyoung

2018-01-01

There are basically two modeling approaches applicable to analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model: the multilevel modeling (hierarchical linear model) and the structural equation modeling. This article explains how to use these two models in analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model and how these two approaches work differently. As an empirical example, marital conflict data were used to analyze an actor-partner interdependence model. The multilevel modeling and the structural equation modeling produced virtually identical estimates for a basic model. However, the structural equation modeling approach allowed more realistic assumptions on measurement errors and factor loadings, rendering better model fit indices.

Translating building information modeling to building energy modeling using model view definition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, WoonSeong; Kim, Jong Bum; Clayton, Mark J; Haberl, Jeff S; Yan, Wei

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM) has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD) consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM) and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica) development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1) the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2) BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1) enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2) enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3) facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process.

Translating Building Information Modeling to Building Energy Modeling Using Model View Definition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WoonSeong Jeong

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new approach to translate between Building Information Modeling (BIM and Building Energy Modeling (BEM that uses Modelica, an object-oriented declarative, equation-based simulation environment. The approach (BIM2BEM has been developed using a data modeling method to enable seamless model translations of building geometry, materials, and topology. Using data modeling, we created a Model View Definition (MVD consisting of a process model and a class diagram. The process model demonstrates object-mapping between BIM and Modelica-based BEM (ModelicaBEM and facilitates the definition of required information during model translations. The class diagram represents the information and object relationships to produce a class package intermediate between the BIM and BEM. The implementation of the intermediate class package enables system interface (Revit2Modelica development for automatic BIM data translation into ModelicaBEM. In order to demonstrate and validate our approach, simulation result comparisons have been conducted via three test cases using (1 the BIM-based Modelica models generated from Revit2Modelica and (2 BEM models manually created using LBNL Modelica Buildings library. Our implementation shows that BIM2BEM (1 enables BIM models to be translated into ModelicaBEM models, (2 enables system interface development based on the MVD for thermal simulation, and (3 facilitates the reuse of original BIM data into building energy simulation without an import/export process.

Models Archive and ModelWeb at NSSDC

Science.gov (United States)

Bilitza, D.; Papitashvili, N.; King, J. H.

2002-05-01

In addition to its large data holdings, NASA's National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) also maintains an archive of space physics models for public use (ftp://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/). The more than 60 model entries cover a wide range of parameters from the atmosphere, to the ionosphere, to the magnetosphere, to the heliosphere. The models are primarily empirical models developed by the respective model authors based on long data records from ground and space experiments. An online model catalog (http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/model/) provides information about these and other models and links to the model software if available. We will briefly review the existing model holdings and highlight some of its usages and users. In response to a growing need by the user community, NSSDC began to develop web-interfaces for the most frequently requested models. These interfaces enable users to compute and plot model parameters online for the specific conditions that they are interested in. Currently included in the Modelweb system (http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/model/) are the following models: the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, the Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) E90 model, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the AP/AE-8 models for the radiation belt electrons and protons. User accesses to both systems have been steadily increasing over the last years with occasional spikes prior to large scientific meetings. The current monthly rate is between 5,000 to 10,000 accesses for either system; in February 2002 13,872 accesses were recorded to the Modelsweb and 7092 accesses to the models archive.

Modelling the models

CERN Multimedia

Anaïs Schaeffer

2012-01-01

By analysing the production of mesons in the forward region of LHC proton-proton collisions, the LHCf collaboration has provided key information needed to calibrate extremely high-energy cosmic ray models.   Average transverse momentum (pT) as a function of rapidity loss ∆y. Black dots represent LHCf data and the red diamonds represent SPS experiment UA7 results. The predictions of hadronic interaction models are shown by open boxes (sibyll 2.1), open circles (qgsjet II-03) and open triangles (epos 1.99). Among these models, epos 1.99 shows the best overall agreement with the LHCf data. LHCf is dedicated to the measurement of neutral particles emitted at extremely small angles in the very forward region of LHC collisions. Two imaging calorimeters – Arm1 and Arm2 – take data 140 m either side of the ATLAS interaction point. “The physics goal of this type of analysis is to provide data for calibrating the hadron interaction models – the well-known &...

Model Manipulation for End-User Modelers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Acretoaie, Vlad

, and transformations using their modeling notation and editor of choice. The VM* languages are implemented via a single execution engine, the VM* Runtime, built on top of the Henshin graph-based transformation engine. This approach combines the benefits of flexibility, maturity, and formality. To simplify model editor......End-user modelers are domain experts who create and use models as part of their work. They are typically not Software Engineers, and have little or no programming and meta-modeling experience. However, using model manipulation languages developed in the context of Model-Driven Engineering often...... requires such experience. These languages are therefore only used by a small subset of the modelers that could, in theory, benefit from them. The goals of this thesis are to substantiate this observation, introduce the concepts and tools required to overcome it, and provide empirical evidence in support...

Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, M.A.

1994-06-01

Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs

On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gharari, S.

2016-01-01

Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

Evolution of computational models in BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository.

Science.gov (United States)

Scharm, Martin; Gebhardt, Tom; Touré, Vasundra; Bagnacani, Andrea; Salehzadeh-Yazdi, Ali; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Waltemath, Dagmar

2018-04-12

A useful model is one that is being (re)used. The development of a successful model does not finish with its publication. During reuse, models are being modified, i.e. expanded, corrected, and refined. Even small changes in the encoding of a model can, however, significantly affect its interpretation. Our motivation for the present study is to identify changes in models and make them transparent and traceable. We analysed 13734 models from BioModels Database and the Physiome Model Repository. For each model, we studied the frequencies and types of updates between its first and latest release. To demonstrate the impact of changes, we explored the history of a Repressilator model in BioModels Database. We observed continuous updates in the majority of models. Surprisingly, even the early models are still being modified. We furthermore detected that many updates target annotations, which improves the information one can gain from models. To support the analysis of changes in model repositories we developed MoSt, an online tool for visualisations of changes in models. The scripts used to generate the data and figures for this study are available from GitHub https://github.com/binfalse/BiVeS-StatsGenerator and as a Docker image at https://hub.docker.com/r/binfalse/bives-statsgenerator/ . The website https://most.bio.informatik.uni-rostock.de/ provides interactive access to model versions and their evolutionary statistics. The reuse of models is still impeded by a lack of trust and documentation. A detailed and transparent documentation of all aspects of the model, including its provenance, will improve this situation. Knowledge about a model's provenance can avoid the repetition of mistakes that others already faced. More insights are gained into how the system evolves from initial findings to a profound understanding. We argue that it is the responsibility of the maintainers of model repositories to offer transparent model provenance to their users.

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-03-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

2017-03-01

Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling styles in business process modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Weidlich, M.; Fahland, D.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Bider, I.; Halpin, T.; Krogstie, J.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, E.; Schmidt, R.; Soffer, P.; Wrycza, S.

2012-01-01

Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models. As a consequence, the question arises whether different ways of creating process models exist. In this vein, we observed 115 students engaged in the act of modeling, recording

Comparison: Binomial model and Black Scholes model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Ahmad Dar

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The Binomial Model and the Black Scholes Model are the popular methods that are used to solve the option pricing problems. Binomial Model is a simple statistical method and Black Scholes model requires a solution of a stochastic differential equation. Pricing of European call and a put option is a very difficult method used by actuaries. The main goal of this study is to differentiate the Binominal model and the Black Scholes model by using two statistical model - t-test and Tukey model at one period. Finally, the result showed that there is no significant difference between the means of the European options by using the above two models.

Modelling in Business Model design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Simonse, W.L.

2013-01-01

It appears that business model design might not always produce a design or model as the expected result. However when designers are involved, a visual model or artefact is produced. To assist strategic managers in thinking about how they can act, the designers challenge is to combine strategy and

Modelling SDL, Modelling Languages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Piefel

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Today's software systems are too complex to implement them and model them using only one language. As a result, modern software engineering uses different languages for different levels of abstraction and different system aspects. Thus to handle an increasing number of related or integrated languages is the most challenging task in the development of tools. We use object oriented metamodelling to describe languages. Object orientation allows us to derive abstract reusable concept definitions (concept classes from existing languages. This language definition technique concentrates on semantic abstractions rather than syntactical peculiarities. We present a set of common concept classes that describe structure, behaviour, and data aspects of high-level modelling languages. Our models contain syntax modelling using the OMG MOF as well as static semantic constraints written in OMG OCL. We derive metamodels for subsets of SDL and UML from these common concepts, and we show for parts of these languages that they can be modelled and related to each other through the same abstract concepts.

Model integration and a theory of models

OpenAIRE

Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

1993-01-01

Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

Black woodpecker Dryocopus martius (L., 1758 distribution, abundance, habitatuse and breeding performance in a recentlycolonized region in SW Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olano, M., Aierbe, T., Beñaran, H., Hurtado, R., Ugarte, Urruzola, A., Vázquez, J., Ansorregi, F., Galdos, A. ... [et al.

2015-01-01

localidades potenciales utilizando inventarios forestales, y cada localidad fue visitada durante el periodo enero-marzo. Las localidades ocupadas se consideraron “dominios vitales reproductivos” cuando se pudo comprobar el emparejamiento o la nidificación, o cuando se registró presencia de individuos en un mínimo de tres visitas consecutivas. Se vigiló el desarrollo de la reproducción en nidos activos durante mayo y junio. Se detectaron y cartografiaron 21 "dominios vitales reproductivos", distribuidos fundamentalmente a lo largo de las franjas oriental y meridional del área de estudio. Las determinantes ambientales relacionadas positivamente con la presencia de "dominios vitales reproductivos" fueron elevada cobertura arbolada, estructura madura, superficies de haya Fagus sylvatica, bosque mixto caducifolio y pino laricio Pinus nigra, y parcelas forestales poco fragmentadas. Las plantaciones de pino de Monterrey P. radiata y las alturas bajas del arbolado se seleccionaron negativamente. Las parcelas de alimentación preferidas incluyeron proporciones de roble americano Quercus rubra y plantaciones de pino laricio. Se detectaron trece nidos activos. Todos los nidos salvo dos fueron excavados en hayas. El éxito de cría fue elevado (92% pero la tasa de vuelo (1.8 estuvo por debajo de los promedios descritos en Europa, lo que podría indicar limitaciones intrínsecas en esta población periférica.

Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, T.

2000-01-01

The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

Concept Modeling vs. Data modeling in Practice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

2015-01-01

This chapter shows the usefulness of terminological concept modeling as a first step in data modeling. First, we introduce terminological concept modeling with terminological ontologies, i.e. concept systems enriched with characteristics modeled as feature specifications. This enables a formal...... account of the inheritance of characteristics and allows us to introduce a number of principles and constraints which render concept modeling more coherent than earlier approaches. Second, we explain how terminological ontologies can be used as the basis for developing conceptual and logical data models....... We also show how to map from the various elements in the terminological ontology to elements in the data models, and explain the differences between the models. Finally the usefulness of terminological ontologies as a prerequisite for IT development and data modeling is illustrated with examples from...

Automated Protein Structure Modeling with SWISS-MODEL Workspace and the Protein Model Portal

OpenAIRE

Bordoli, Lorenza; Schwede, Torsten

2012-01-01

Comparative protein structure modeling is a computational approach to build three-dimensional structural models for proteins using experimental structures of related protein family members as templates. Regular blind assessments of modeling accuracy have demonstrated that comparative protein structure modeling is currently the most reliable technique to model protein structures. Homology models are often sufficiently accurate to substitute for experimental structures in a wide variety of appl...

Genetic characterization of Toxoplasma gondii from Brazilian wildlife revealed abundant new genotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Vitaliano, S N; Soares, H S; Minervino, A H H; Santos, A L Q; Werther, K; Marvulo, M F V; Siqueira, D B; Pena, H F J; Soares, R M; Su, C; Gennari, S M

2014-12-01

This study aimed to isolate and genotype T. gondii from Brazilian wildlife. For this purpose, 226 samples were submitted to mice bioassay and screened by PCR based on 18S rRNA sequences. A total of 15 T. gondii isolates were obtained, including samples from four armadillos (three Dasypus novemcinctus, one Euphractus sexcinctus), three collared anteaters (Tamandua tetradactyla), three whited-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari), one spotted paca (Cuniculus paca), one oncilla (Leopardus tigrinus), one hoary fox (Pseudalopex vetulus), one lineated woodpecker (Dryocopus lineatus) and one maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus). DNA from the isolates, originated from mice bioassay, and from the tissues of the wild animal, designated as "primary samples", were genotyped by PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR/RFLP), using 12 genetic markers (SAG1, SAG2, alt.SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L258, PK1, CS3 and Apico). A total of 17 genotypes were identified, with 13 identified for the first time and four already reported in published literature. Results herein obtained corroborate previous studies in Brazil, confirming high diversity and revealing unique genotypes in this region. Given most of genotypes here identified are different from previous studies in domestic animals, future studies on T. gondii from wildlife is of interest to understand population genetics and structure of this parasite.

Genetic characterization of Toxoplasma gondii from Brazilian wildlife revealed abundant new genotypes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.N. Vitaliano

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to isolate and genotype T. gondii from Brazilian wildlife. For this purpose, 226 samples were submitted to mice bioassay and screened by PCR based on 18S rRNA sequences. A total of 15 T. gondii isolates were obtained, including samples from four armadillos (three Dasypus novemcinctus, one Euphractus sexcinctus, three collared anteaters (Tamandua tetradactyla, three whited-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari, one spotted paca (Cuniculus paca, one oncilla (Leopardus tigrinus, one hoary fox (Pseudalopex vetulus, one lineated woodpecker (Dryocopus lineatus and one maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus. DNA from the isolates, originated from mice bioassay, and from the tissues of the wild animal, designated as “primary samples”, were genotyped by PCR–restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR/RFLP, using 12 genetic markers (SAG1, SAG2, alt.SAG2, SAG3, BTUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L258, PK1, CS3 and Apico. A total of 17 genotypes were identified, with 13 identified for the first time and four already reported in published literature. Results herein obtained corroborate previous studies in Brazil, confirming high diversity and revealing unique genotypes in this region. Given most of genotypes here identified are different from previous studies in domestic animals, future studies on T. gondii from wildlife is of interest to understand population genetics and structure of this parasite.

A brain-based account of "basic-level" concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Andrew James; Just, Marcel Adam

2017-11-01

This study provides a brain-based account of how object concepts at an intermediate (basic) level of specificity are represented, offering an enriched view of what it means for a concept to be a basic-level concept, a research topic pioneered by Rosch and others (Rosch et al., 1976). Applying machine learning techniques to fMRI data, it was possible to determine the semantic content encoded in the neural representations of object concepts at basic and subordinate levels of abstraction. The representation of basic-level concepts (e.g. bird) was spatially broad, encompassing sensorimotor brain areas that encode concrete object properties, and also language and heteromodal integrative areas that encode abstract semantic content. The representation of subordinate-level concepts (robin) was less widely distributed, concentrated in perceptual areas that underlie concrete content. Furthermore, basic-level concepts were representative of their subordinates in that they were neurally similar to their typical but not atypical subordinates (bird was neurally similar to robin but not woodpecker). The findings provide a brain-based account of the advantages that basic-level concepts enjoy in everyday life over subordinate-level concepts: the basic level is a broad topographical representation that encompasses both concrete and abstract semantic content, reflecting the multifaceted yet intuitive meaning of basic-level concepts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-02-01

Over the past year, several modifications have been made to the NEMS Transportation Model, incorporating greater levels of detail and analysis in modules previously represented in the aggregate or under a profusion of simplifying assumptions. This document is intended to amend those sections of the Model Documentation Report (MDR) which describe these superseded modules. Significant changes have been implemented in the LDV Fuel Economy Model, the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the LDV Fleet Module, and the Highway Freight Model. The relevant sections of the MDR have been extracted from the original document, amended, and are presented in the following pages. A brief summary of the modifications follows: In the Fuel Economy Model, modifications have been made which permit the user to employ more optimistic assumptions about the commercial viability and impact of selected technological improvements. This model also explicitly calculates the fuel economy of an array of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV`s) which are subsequently used in the estimation of vehicle sales. In the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the results of the Fuel Economy Model have been incorporated, and the program flows have been modified to reflect that fact. In the Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Module, the sales of vehicles to fleets of various size are endogenously calculated in order to provide a more detailed estimate of the impacts of EPACT legislation on the sales of AFV`s to fleets. In the Highway Freight Model, the previous aggregate estimation has been replaced by a detailed Freight Truck Stock Model, where travel patterns, efficiencies, and energy intensities are estimated by industrial grouping. Several appendices are provided at the end of this document, containing data tables and supplementary descriptions of the model development process which are not integral to an understanding of the overall model structure.

The IMACLIM model; Le modele IMACLIM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document provides annexes to the IMACLIM model which propose an actualized description of IMACLIM, model allowing the design of an evaluation tool of the greenhouse gases reduction policies. The model is described in a version coupled with the POLES, technical and economical model of the energy industry. Notations, equations, sources, processing and specifications are proposed and detailed. (A.L.B.)

Modelling Practice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cameron, Ian; Gani, Rafiqul

2011-01-01

This chapter deals with the practicalities of building, testing, deploying and maintaining models. It gives specific advice for each phase of the modelling cycle. To do this, a modelling framework is introduced which covers: problem and model definition; model conceptualization; model data...... requirements; model construction; model solution; model verification; model validation and finally model deployment and maintenance. Within the adopted methodology, each step is discussedthrough the consideration of key issues and questions relevant to the modelling activity. Practical advice, based on many...

Leadership Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Thomas J.

This paper discusses six different models of organizational structure and leadership, including the scalar chain or pyramid model, the continuum model, the grid model, the linking pin model, the contingency model, and the circle or democratic model. Each model is examined in a separate section that describes the model and its development, lists…

Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

1982-01-01

If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

Better models are more effectively connected models

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

2016-04-01

The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity

Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

2014-12-01

Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

Models and role models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ten Cate, J.M.

2015-01-01

Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of

Multiscale musculoskeletal modelling, data–model fusion and electromyography-informed modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.; Heidlauf, T.; Sartori, M.; Besier, T.; Röhrle, O.; Lloyd, D.

2016-01-01

This paper proposes methods and technologies that advance the state of the art for modelling the musculoskeletal system across the spatial and temporal scales; and storing these using efficient ontologies and tools. We present population-based modelling as an efficient method to rapidly generate individual morphology from only a few measurements and to learn from the ever-increasing supply of imaging data available. We present multiscale methods for continuum muscle and bone models; and efficient mechanostatistical methods, both continuum and particle-based, to bridge the scales. Finally, we examine both the importance that muscles play in bone remodelling stimuli and the latest muscle force prediction methods that use electromyography-assisted modelling techniques to compute musculoskeletal forces that best reflect the underlying neuromuscular activity. Our proposal is that, in order to have a clinically relevant virtual physiological human, (i) bone and muscle mechanics must be considered together; (ii) models should be trained on population data to permit rapid generation and use underlying principal modes that describe both muscle patterns and morphology; and (iii) these tools need to be available in an open-source repository so that the scientific community may use, personalize and contribute to the database of models. PMID:27051510

Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Model performance: the Lawrence Livermore Laboratoy Zonal Atmospheric Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

1978-06-01

Results from the zonal model indicate quite reasonable agreement with observation in terms of the parameters and processes that influence the radiation and energy balance calculations. The model produces zonal statistics similar to those from general circulation models, and has also been shown to produce similar responses in sensitivity studies. Further studies of model performance are planned, including: comparison with July data; comparison of temperature and moisture transport and wind fields for winter and summer months; and a tabulation of atmospheric energetics. Based on these preliminary performance studies, however, it appears that the zonal model can be used in conjunction with more complex models to help unravel the problems of understanding the processes governing present climate and climate change. As can be seen in the subsequent paper on model sensitivity studies, in addition to reduced cost of computation, the zonal model facilitates analysis of feedback mechanisms and simplifies analysis of the interactions between processes

Gradient-based model calibration with proxy-model assistance

Science.gov (United States)

Burrows, Wesley; Doherty, John

2016-02-01

Use of a proxy model in gradient-based calibration and uncertainty analysis of a complex groundwater model with large run times and problematic numerical behaviour is described. The methodology is general, and can be used with models of all types. The proxy model is based on a series of analytical functions that link all model outputs used in the calibration process to all parameters requiring estimation. In enforcing history-matching constraints during the calibration and post-calibration uncertainty analysis processes, the proxy model is run for the purposes of populating the Jacobian matrix, while the original model is run when testing parameter upgrades; the latter process is readily parallelized. Use of a proxy model in this fashion dramatically reduces the computational burden of complex model calibration and uncertainty analysis. At the same time, the effect of model numerical misbehaviour on calculation of local gradients is mitigated, this allowing access to the benefits of gradient-based analysis where lack of integrity in finite-difference derivatives calculation would otherwise have impeded such access. Construction of a proxy model, and its subsequent use in calibration of a complex model, and in analysing the uncertainties of predictions made by that model, is implemented in the PEST suite.

Spike Neural Models Part II: Abstract Neural Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnson, Melissa G.

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Neurons are complex cells that require a lot of time and resources to model completely. In spiking neural networks (SNN though, not all that complexity is required. Therefore simple, abstract models are often used. These models save time, use less computer resources, and are easier to understand. This tutorial presents two such models: Izhikevich's model, which is biologically realistic in the resulting spike trains but not in the parameters, and the Leaky Integrate and Fire (LIF model which is not biologically realistic but does quickly and easily integrate input to produce spikes. Izhikevich's model is based on Hodgkin-Huxley's model but simplified such that it uses only two differentiation equations and four parameters to produce various realistic spike patterns. LIF is based on a standard electrical circuit and contains one equation. Either of these two models, or any of the many other models in literature can be used in a SNN. Choosing a neural model is an important task that depends on the goal of the research and the resources available. Once a model is chosen, network decisions such as connectivity, delay, and sparseness, need to be made. Understanding neural models and how they are incorporated into the network is the first step in creating a SNN.

Population balance models: a useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

2015-01-01

Population balance models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by distributions. This distribution of properties under transient conditions has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling...

From Product Models to Product State Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm

1999-01-01

A well-known technology designed to handle product data is Product Models. Product Models are in their current form not able to handle all types of product state information. Hence, the concept of a Product State Model (PSM) is proposed. The PSM and in particular how to model a PSM is the Research...

North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

Science.gov (United States)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

2009-05-01

Available observations are localized and widely separated in both space and time, so we depend heavily on models to characterize, understand, and predict carbon fluxes at regional and global scales. The results from each model differ because they use different approaches (forward vs. inverse), modeling strategies (detailed process, statistical, observation based), process representation, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and driver data. To investigate these differences we conducted a model-model and model-data comparison using available forward ecosystem model and atmospheric inverse output, along with regional scale inventory data. Forward or "bottom-up" models typically estimate carbon fluxes through a set of physiological relationships, and are based on our current mechanistic understanding of how carbon is exchanged within ecosystems. Inverse or "top-down" analyses use measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2, coupled with an atmospheric transport model to infer surface flux distributions. Although bottom-up models do fairly well at reproducing measured fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem exchange) at a given location, they vary considerably in their estimates of carbon flux over regional or continental scales, suggesting difficulty in scaling mechanistic relationships to large areas and/or timescales. Conversely, top-down inverse models predict fluxes that are quantitatively consistent with atmospheric measurements, suggesting that they are capturing large scale variability in flux quite well, but offer limited insights into the processes controlling this variability and how fluxes vary at fine spatial scales. The analyses focused on identifying and quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes among the models; quantifying across-model variability, as well as comparing simulated or estimated surface fluxes and biomass to observed values at regional to continental scales for the period 2000-2005. The analysis focused on the following three

Population Balance Models: A useful complementary modelling framework for future WWTP modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nopens, Ingmar; Torfs, Elena; Ducoste, Joel

2014-01-01

Population Balance Models (PBMs) represent a powerful modelling framework for the description of the dynamics of properties that are characterised by statistical distributions. This has been demonstrated in many chemical engineering applications. Modelling efforts of several current and future unit...

Model Metric untuk Mengukur Fleksibilitas Model Proses Bisnis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Endang Wahyu Pamungkas

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Abstrak Organisasi bisnis dunia saat ini banyak memanfaatkan sistem informasi digital untuk memberikan pemahaman mengenai manajemen proses bisnis yang mereka jalani. Pemanfaatan sistem Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP merupakan contoh teknologi dalam manajemen proses bisnis. Melalui sistem ini perusahaan dapat membangun dan mengembangkan proses bisnis. Selain itu, perusahaan juga dapat menyesuaikan proses bisnis secara cepat terhadap perubahan yang terjadi seiring bertambahnya kebutuhan dan informasi, berubahnya kondisi pasar, atau perubahan kebijakan. Sehubungan dengan perubahan proses bisnis yang sering terjadi, maka aspek fleksibilitas terhadap model proses yang dibangun harus ditingkatkan. Dalam mendukung peningkatan fleksibilitas tersebut tentunya dibutuhkan sebuah model untuk mengukur tingkat flesibelitas model proses bisnis. Model tersebut yang kemudian dapat digunakan oleh analis untuk melakukan perbandingan sehingga dapat diperoleh model proses bisnis yang paling fleksibel dan cocok dengan perusahaan. Hal ini dapat dianalisa dengan melibatkan aspek-aspek fleksibel yang telah diteliti pada penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. Dalam paper ini akan dilakukan penelitian mengenai aspek fleksibitas dalam model proses bisnis untuk menghasilkan model metric yang dapat melakukan kuantifikasi tingkat fleksibilitas pada model proses bisnis. Model metric yang dihasilkan pada penelitian ini mampu melakukan perhitungan fleksibelitas pada model proses bisnis secara kuantitatif. Kata kunci: ERP, fleksibilitas, metadata, model metric, model proses bisnis, variasi Abstract Recently, business organizations in the world are making use of digital information systems to provide an understanding of the business process management in which they live. Utilization of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP system is an example of technology in business process management. Through this system, some companies can build and develop business process and can quickly adjust

Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kovacova Maria

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

The ModelCC Model-Driven Parser Generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Berzal

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Syntax-directed translation tools require the specification of a language by means of a formal grammar. This grammar must conform to the specific requirements of the parser generator to be used. This grammar is then annotated with semantic actions for the resulting system to perform its desired function. In this paper, we introduce ModelCC, a model-based parser generator that decouples language specification from language processing, avoiding some of the problems caused by grammar-driven parser generators. ModelCC receives a conceptual model as input, along with constraints that annotate it. It is then able to create a parser for the desired textual syntax and the generated parser fully automates the instantiation of the language conceptual model. ModelCC also includes a reference resolution mechanism so that ModelCC is able to instantiate abstract syntax graphs, rather than mere abstract syntax trees.

Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

2003-01-01

To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson-Blake, Leah

2015-04-01

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-30

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.

Modeling Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

2010-01-01

Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

Post-model selection inference and model averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

The DINA model as a constrained general diagnostic model: Two variants of a model equivalency.

Science.gov (United States)

von Davier, Matthias

2014-02-01

The 'deterministic-input noisy-AND' (DINA) model is one of the more frequently applied diagnostic classification models for binary observed responses and binary latent variables. The purpose of this paper is to show that the model is equivalent to a special case of a more general compensatory family of diagnostic models. Two equivalencies are presented. Both project the original DINA skill space and design Q-matrix using mappings into a transformed skill space as well as a transformed Q-matrix space. Both variants of the equivalency produce a compensatory model that is mathematically equivalent to the (conjunctive) DINA model. This equivalency holds for all DINA models with any type of Q-matrix, not only for trivial (simple-structure) cases. The two versions of the equivalency presented in this paper are not implied by the recently suggested log-linear cognitive diagnosis model or the generalized DINA approach. The equivalencies presented here exist independent of these recently derived models since they solely require a linear - compensatory - general diagnostic model without any skill interaction terms. Whenever it can be shown that one model can be viewed as a special case of another more general one, conclusions derived from any particular model-based estimates are drawn into question. It is widely known that multidimensional models can often be specified in multiple ways while the model-based probabilities of observed variables stay the same. This paper goes beyond this type of equivalency by showing that a conjunctive diagnostic classification model can be expressed as a constrained special case of a general compensatory diagnostic modelling framework. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Performance Measurement Model A TarBase model with ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

rohit

Model A 8.0 2.0 94.52% 88.46% 76 108 12 12 0.86 0.91 0.78 0.94. Model B 2.0 2.0 93.18% 89.33% 64 95 10 9 0.88 0.90 0.75 0.98. The above results for TEST – 1 show details for our two models (Model A and Model B).Performance of Model A after adding of 32 negative dataset of MiRTif on our testing set(MiRecords) ...

Underground economy modelling: simple models with complicated dynamics

OpenAIRE

Albu, Lucian-Liviu

2003-01-01

The paper aims to model the underground economy using two different models: one based on the labor supply method and a generalized model for the allocation of time. The model based on the labor supply method is conceived as a simulating one in order to determine some reasonable thresholds of the underground sector extension based only on the available macroeconomic statistical data. The generalized model for the allocation of time is a model based on direct approach which estimates the underg...

Integrative structure modeling with the Integrative Modeling Platform.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Benjamin; Viswanath, Shruthi; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Greenberg, Charles H; Saltzberg, Daniel; Sali, Andrej

2018-01-01

Building models of a biological system that are consistent with the myriad data available is one of the key challenges in biology. Modeling the structure and dynamics of macromolecular assemblies, for example, can give insights into how biological systems work, evolved, might be controlled, and even designed. Integrative structure modeling casts the building of structural models as a computational optimization problem, for which information about the assembly is encoded into a scoring function that evaluates candidate models. Here, we describe our open source software suite for integrative structure modeling, Integrative Modeling Platform (https://integrativemodeling.org), and demonstrate its use. © 2017 The Protein Society.

Modeling volatility using state space models.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmer, J; Weigend, A S

1997-08-01

In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system. In this framework, we show that empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility ranging from three weeks (for foreign exchange) to three to five months (for stock indices). In most cases, a two-dimensional hidden state is required to yield residuals that are consistent with white noise. We compare these results with ordinary autoregressive models (without a hidden state) and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude since they do not distinguish between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities. Data sets used: Olsen & Associates high frequency DEM/USD foreign exchange rates (8 years). Nikkei 225 index (40 years). Dow Jones Industrial Average (25 years).

Document Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.A. Malykh

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the concept of locally simple models is considered. Locally simple models are arbitrarily complex models built from relatively simple components. A lot of practically important domains of discourse can be described as locally simple models, for example, business models of enterprises and companies. Up to now, research in human reasoning automation has been mainly concentrated around the most intellectually intensive activities, such as automated theorem proving. On the other hand, the retailer business model is formed from ”jobs”, and each ”job” can be modelled and automated more or less easily. At the same time, the whole retailer model as an integrated system is extremely complex. In this paper, we offer a variant of the mathematical definition of a locally simple model. This definition is intended for modelling a wide range of domains. Therefore, we also must take into account the perceptual and psychological issues. Logic is elitist, and if we want to attract to our models as many people as possible, we need to hide this elitism behind some metaphor, to which ’ordinary’ people are accustomed. As such a metaphor, we use the concept of a document, so our locally simple models are called document models. Document models are built in the paradigm of semantic programming. This allows us to achieve another important goal - to make the documentary models executable. Executable models are models that can act as practical information systems in the described domain of discourse. Thus, if our model is executable, then programming becomes redundant. The direct use of a model, instead of its programming coding, brings important advantages, for example, a drastic cost reduction for development and maintenance. Moreover, since the model is well and sound, and not dissolved within programming modules, we can directly apply AI tools, in particular, machine learning. This significantly expands the possibilities for automation and

An online model composition tool for system biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Coskun, Sarp A; Cicek, A Ercument; Lai, Nicola; Dash, Ranjan K; Ozsoyoglu, Z Meral; Ozsoyoglu, Gultekin

2013-09-05

There are multiple representation formats for Systems Biology computational models, and the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) is one of the most widely used. SBML is used to capture, store, and distribute computational models by Systems Biology data sources (e.g., the BioModels Database) and researchers. Therefore, there is a need for all-in-one web-based solutions that support advance SBML functionalities such as uploading, editing, composing, visualizing, simulating, querying, and browsing computational models. We present the design and implementation of the Model Composition Tool (Interface) within the PathCase-SB (PathCase Systems Biology) web portal. The tool helps users compose systems biology models to facilitate the complex process of merging systems biology models. We also present three tools that support the model composition tool, namely, (1) Model Simulation Interface that generates a visual plot of the simulation according to user's input, (2) iModel Tool as a platform for users to upload their own models to compose, and (3) SimCom Tool that provides a side by side comparison of models being composed in the same pathway. Finally, we provide a web site that hosts BioModels Database models and a separate web site that hosts SBML Test Suite models. Model composition tool (and the other three tools) can be used with little or no knowledge of the SBML document structure. For this reason, students or anyone who wants to learn about systems biology will benefit from the described functionalities. SBML Test Suite models will be a nice starting point for beginners. And, for more advanced purposes, users will able to access and employ models of the BioModels Database as well.

Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.

1987-01-01

Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

A Model of Trusted Measurement Model

OpenAIRE

Ma Zhili; Wang Zhihao; Dai Liang; Zhu Xiaoqin

2017-01-01

A model of Trusted Measurement supporting behavior measurement based on trusted connection architecture (TCA) with three entities and three levels is proposed, and a frame to illustrate the model is given. The model synthesizes three trusted measurement dimensions including trusted identity, trusted status and trusted behavior, satisfies the essential requirements of trusted measurement, and unified the TCA with three entities and three levels.

A unification of RDE model and XCDM model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao, Kai; Zhu, Zong-Hong

2013-01-01

In this Letter, we propose a new generalized Ricci dark energy (NGR) model to unify Ricci dark energy (RDE) and XCDM. Our model can distinguish between RDE and XCDM by introducing a parameter β called weight factor. When β=1, NGR model becomes the usual RDE model. The XCDM model is corresponding to β=0. Moreover, NGR model permits the situation where neither β=1 nor β=0. We then perform a statefinder analysis on NGR model to see how β effects the trajectory on the r–s plane. In order to know the value of β, we constrain NGR model with latest observations including type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from Union2 set (557 data), baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) observation from the spectroscopic Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data release 7 (DR7) galaxy sample and cosmic microwave background (CMB) observation from the 7-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP7) results. With Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the constraint result is β=0.08 −0.21 +0.30 (1σ) −0.28 +0.43 (2σ), which manifests the observations prefer a XCDM universe rather than RDE model. It seems RDE model is ruled out in NGR scenario within 2σ regions. Furthermore, we compare it with some of successful cosmological models using AIC information criterion. NGR model seems to be a good choice for describing the universe.

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2015-01-01

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, Jing

2018-01-01

This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

2012-01-01

We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

ModelMate - A graphical user interface for model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Banta, Edward R.

2011-01-01

ModelMate is a graphical user interface designed to facilitate use of model-analysis programs with models. This initial version of ModelMate supports one model-analysis program, UCODE_2005, and one model software program, MODFLOW-2005. ModelMate can be used to prepare input files for UCODE_2005, run UCODE_2005, and display analysis results. A link to the GW_Chart graphing program facilitates visual interpretation of results. ModelMate includes capabilities for organizing directories used with the parallel-processing capabilities of UCODE_2005 and for maintaining files in those directories to be identical to a set of files in a master directory. ModelMate can be used on its own or in conjunction with ModelMuse, a graphical user interface for MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST.

Reactor core modeling practice: Operational requirements, model characteristics, and model validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerbino, H.

1997-01-01

The physical models implemented in power plant simulators have greatly increased in performance and complexity in recent years. This process has been enabled by the ever increasing computing power available at affordable prices. This paper describes this process from several angles: First the operational requirements which are more critical from the point of view of model performance, both for normal and off-normal operating conditions; A second section discusses core model characteristics in the light of the solutions implemented by Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) in several full-scope simulators recently built and delivered for Dutch, German, and French nuclear power plants; finally we consider the model validation procedures, which are of course an integral part of model development, and which are becoming more and more severe as performance expectations increase. As a conclusion, it may be asserted that in the core modeling field, as in other areas, the general improvement in the quality of simulation codes has resulted in a fairly rapid convergence towards mainstream engineering-grade calculations. This is remarkable performance in view of the stringent real-time requirements which the simulation codes must satisfy as well as the extremely wide range of operating conditions that they are called upon to cover with good accuracy. (author)

Mineralogic Model (MM3.0) Analysis Model Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. Lum

2002-02-12

The purpose of this report is to document the Mineralogic Model (MM), Version 3.0 (MM3.0) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.0 and previous versions. A three-dimensional (3-D) Mineralogic Model was developed for Yucca Mountain to support the analyses of hydrologic properties, radionuclide transport, mineral health hazards, repository performance, and repository design. Version 3.0 of the MM was developed from mineralogic data obtained from borehole samples. It consists of matrix mineral abundances as a function of x (easting), y (northing), and z (elevation), referenced to the stratigraphic framework defined in Version 3.1 of the Geologic Framework Model (GFM). The MM was developed specifically for incorporation into the 3-D Integrated Site Model (ISM). The MM enables project personnel to obtain calculated mineral abundances at any position, within any region, or within any stratigraphic unit in the model area. The significance of the MM for key aspects of site characterization and performance assessment is explained in the following subsections. This work was conducted in accordance with the Development Plan for the MM (CRWMS M&O 2000). The planning document for this Rev. 00, ICN 02 of this AMR is Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The purpose of this ICN is to record changes in the classification of input status by the resolution of the use of TBV software and data in this report. Constraints and limitations of the MM are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow. The MM is one component of the ISM, which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1

Mineralogic Model (MM3.0) Analysis Model Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lum, C.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the Mineralogic Model (MM), Version 3.0 (MM3.0) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.0 and previous versions. A three-dimensional (3-D) Mineralogic Model was developed for Yucca Mountain to support the analyses of hydrologic properties, radionuclide transport, mineral health hazards, repository performance, and repository design. Version 3.0 of the MM was developed from mineralogic data obtained from borehole samples. It consists of matrix mineral abundances as a function of x (easting), y (northing), and z (elevation), referenced to the stratigraphic framework defined in Version 3.1 of the Geologic Framework Model (GFM). The MM was developed specifically for incorporation into the 3-D Integrated Site Model (ISM). The MM enables project personnel to obtain calculated mineral abundances at any position, within any region, or within any stratigraphic unit in the model area. The significance of the MM for key aspects of site characterization and performance assessment is explained in the following subsections. This work was conducted in accordance with the Development Plan for the MM (CRWMS M and O 2000). The planning document for this Rev. 00, ICN 02 of this AMR is Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The purpose of this ICN is to record changes in the classification of input status by the resolution of the use of TBV software and data in this report. Constraints and limitations of the MM are discussed in the appropriate sections that follow. The MM is one component of the ISM, which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

Science.gov (United States)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-08-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarrabi, K.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.L.

1994-01-01

Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaeffer, D.L.

1979-08-01

A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

Galactic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchler, J.R.; Gottesman, S.T.; Hunter, J.H. Jr.

1990-01-01

Various papers on galactic models are presented. Individual topics addressed include: observations relating to galactic mass distributions; the structure of the Galaxy; mass distribution in spiral galaxies; rotation curves of spiral galaxies in clusters; grand design, multiple arm, and flocculent spiral galaxies; observations of barred spirals; ringed galaxies; elliptical galaxies; the modal approach to models of galaxies; self-consistent models of spiral galaxies; dynamical models of spiral galaxies; N-body models. Also discussed are: two-component models of galaxies; simulations of cloudy, gaseous galactic disks; numerical experiments on the stability of hot stellar systems; instabilities of slowly rotating galaxies; spiral structure as a recurrent instability; model gas flows in selected barred spiral galaxies; bar shapes and orbital stochasticity; three-dimensional models; polar ring galaxies; dynamical models of polar rings

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a

The Bond Fluctuation Model and Other Lattice Models

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Marcus

Lattice models constitute a class of coarse-grained representations of polymeric materials. They have enjoyed a longstanding tradition for investigating the universal behavior of long chain molecules by computer simulations and enumeration techniques. A coarse-grained representation is often necessary to investigate properties on large time- and length scales. First, some justification for using lattice models will be given and the benefits and limitations will be discussed. Then, the bond fluctuation model by Carmesin and Kremer [1] is placed into the context of other lattice models and compared to continuum models. Some specific techniques for measuring the pressure in lattice models will be described. The bond fluctuation model has been employed in more than 100 simulation studies in the last decade and only few selected applications can be mentioned.

A Distributed Snow Evolution Modeling System (SnowModel)

Science.gov (United States)

Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

2004-12-01

A spatially distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) has been specifically designed to be applicable over a wide range of snow landscapes, climates, and conditions. To reach this goal, SnowModel is composed of four sub-models: MicroMet defines the meteorological forcing conditions, EnBal calculates surface energy exchanges, SnowMass simulates snow depth and water-equivalent evolution, and SnowTran-3D accounts for snow redistribution by wind. While other distributed snow models exist, SnowModel is unique in that it includes a well-tested blowing-snow sub-model (SnowTran-3D) for application in windy arctic, alpine, and prairie environments where snowdrifts are common. These environments comprise 68% of the seasonally snow-covered Northern Hemisphere land surface. SnowModel also accounts for snow processes occurring in forested environments (e.g., canopy interception related processes). SnowModel is designed to simulate snow-related physical processes occurring at spatial scales of 5-m and greater, and temporal scales of 1-hour and greater. These include: accumulation from precipitation; wind redistribution and sublimation; loading, unloading, and sublimation within forest canopies; snow-density evolution; and snowpack ripening and melt. To enhance its wide applicability, SnowModel includes the physical calculations required to simulate snow evolution within each of the global snow classes defined by Sturm et al. (1995), e.g., tundra, taiga, alpine, prairie, maritime, and ephemeral snow covers. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) are used as SnowModel simulation examples to highlight model strengths, weaknesses, and features in forested, semi-forested, alpine, and shrubland environments.

Event-based model diagnosis of rainfall-runoff model structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stanzel, P.

2012-01-01

The objective of this research is a comparative evaluation of different rainfall-runoff model structures. Comparative model diagnostics facilitate the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of each model. The application of multiple models allows an analysis of simulation uncertainties arising from the selection of model structure, as compared with effects of uncertain parameters and precipitation input. Four different model structures, including conceptual and physically based approaches, are compared. In addition to runoff simulations, results for soil moisture and the runoff components of overland flow, interflow and base flow are analysed. Catchment runoff is simulated satisfactorily by all four model structures and shows only minor differences. Systematic deviations from runoff observations provide insight into model structural deficiencies. While physically based model structures capture some single runoff events better, they do not generally outperform conceptual model structures. Contributions to uncertainty in runoff simulations stemming from the choice of model structure show similar dimensions to those arising from parameter selection and the representation of precipitation input. Variations in precipitation mainly affect the general level and peaks of runoff, while different model structures lead to different simulated runoff dynamics. Large differences between the four analysed models are detected for simulations of soil moisture and, even more pronounced, runoff components. Soil moisture changes are more dynamical in the physically based model structures, which is in better agreement with observations. Streamflow contributions of overland flow are considerably lower in these models than in the more conceptual approaches. Observations of runoff components are rarely made and are not available in this study, but are shown to have high potential for an effective selection of appropriate model structures (author) [de

Observation-Based Modeling for Model-Based Testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kanstrén, T.; Piel, E.; Gross, H.G.

2009-01-01

One of the single most important reasons that modeling and modelbased testing are not yet common practice in industry is the perceived difficulty of making the models up to the level of detail and quality required for their automated processing. Models unleash their full potential only through

Multi-Hypothesis Modelling Capabilities for Robust Data-Model Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Lu, D.; Medlyn, B.; Norby, R. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Weston, D. J.; Ye, M.; Zaehle, S.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainty is often inherent in model predictions due to imperfect knowledge of how to describe the mechanistic processes (hypotheses) that a model is intended to represent. Yet this model hypothesis uncertainty (MHU) is often overlooked or informally evaluated, as methods to quantify and evaluate MHU are limited. MHU is increased as models become more complex because each additional processes added to a model comes with inherent MHU as well as parametric unceratinty. With the current trend of adding more processes to Earth System Models (ESMs), we are adding uncertainty, which can be quantified for parameters but not MHU. Model inter-comparison projects do allow for some consideration of hypothesis uncertainty but in an ad hoc and non-independent fashion. This has stymied efforts to evaluate ecosystem models against data and intepret the results mechanistically because it is not simple to interpret exactly why a model is producing the results it does and identify which model assumptions are key as they combine models of many sub-systems and processes, each of which may be conceptualised and represented mathematically in various ways. We present a novel modelling framework—the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT)—that automates the combination, generation, and execution of a model ensemble built with different representations of process. We will present the argument that multi-hypothesis modelling needs to be considered in conjunction with other capabilities (e.g. the Predictive Ecosystem Analyser; PecAn) and statistical methods (e.g. sensitivity anaylsis, data assimilation) to aid efforts in robust data model integration to enhance our predictive understanding of biological systems.

Process models and model-data fusion in dendroecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel eGuiot

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Dendrochronology (i.e. the study of annually dated tree-ring time series has proved to be a powerful technique to understand tree-growth. This paper intends to show the interest of using ecophysiological modeling not only to understand and predict tree-growth (dendroecology but also to reconstruct past climates (dendroclimatology. Process models have been used for several decades in dendroclimatology, but it is only recently that methods of model-data fusion have led to significant progress in modeling tree-growth as a function of climate and in reconstructing past climates. These model-data fusion (MDF methods, mainly based on the Bayesian paradigm, have been shown to be powerful for both model calibration and model inversion. After a rapid survey of tree-growth modeling, we illustrate MDF with examples based on series of Southern France Aleppo pines and Central France oaks. These examples show that if plants experienced CO2 fertilization, this would have a significant effect on tree-growth which in turn would bias the climate reconstructions. This bias could be extended to other environmental non-climatic factors directly or indirectly affecting annual ring formation and not taken into account in classical empirical models, which supports the use of more complex process-based models. Finally, we conclude by showing the interest of the data assimilation methods applied in climatology to produce climate re-analyses.

`Models of' versus `Models for'. Toward an Agent-Based Conception of Modeling in the Science Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Gouvea, Julia; Passmore, Cynthia

2017-03-01

The inclusion of the practice of "developing and using models" in the Framework for K-12 Science Education and in the Next Generation Science Standards provides an opportunity for educators to examine the role this practice plays in science and how it can be leveraged in a science classroom. Drawing on conceptions of models in the philosophy of science, we bring forward an agent-based account of models and discuss the implications of this view for enacting modeling in science classrooms. Models, according to this account, can only be understood with respect to the aims and intentions of a cognitive agent (models for), not solely in terms of how they represent phenomena in the world (models of). We present this contrast as a heuristic— models of versus models for—that can be used to help educators notice and interpret how models are positioned in standards, curriculum, and classrooms.

Eclipse models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michel, F.C.

1989-01-01

Three existing eclipse models for the PSR 1957 + 20 pulsar are discussed in terms of their requirements and the information they yield about the pulsar wind: the interacting wind from a companion model, the magnetosphere model, and the occulting disk model. It is shown out that the wind model requires an MHD wind from the pulsar, with enough particles that the Poynting flux of the wind can be thermalized; in this model, a large flux of energetic radiation from the pulsar is required to accompany the wind and drive the wind off the companion. The magnetosphere model requires an EM wind, which is Poynting flux dominated; the advantage of this model over the wind model is that the plasma density inside the magnetosphere can be orders of magnitude larger than in a magnetospheric tail blown back by wind interaction. The occulting disk model also requires an EM wind so that the interaction would be pushed down onto the companion surface, minimizing direct interaction of the wind with the orbiting macroscopic particles

Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

1983-01-01

The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, J.C.; Perlin, N.; Skyllingstad, E.D.

2008-01-01

Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

2015-02-01

We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

The Real and the Mathematical in Quantum Modeling: From Principles to Models and from Models to Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Plotnitsky, Arkady

2017-06-01

The history of mathematical modeling outside physics has been dominated by the use of classical mathematical models, C-models, primarily those of a probabilistic or statistical nature. More recently, however, quantum mathematical models, Q-models, based in the mathematical formalism of quantum theory have become more prominent in psychology, economics, and decision science. The use of Q-models in these fields remains controversial, in part because it is not entirely clear whether Q-models are necessary for dealing with the phenomena in question or whether C-models would still suffice. My aim, however, is not to assess the necessity of Q-models in these fields, but instead to reflect on what the possible applicability of Q-models may tell us about the corresponding phenomena there, vis-à-vis quantum phenomena in physics. In order to do so, I shall first discuss the key reasons for the use of Q-models in physics. In particular, I shall examine the fundamental principles that led to the development of quantum mechanics. Then I shall consider a possible role of similar principles in using Q-models outside physics. Psychology, economics, and decision science borrow already available Q-models from quantum theory, rather than derive them from their own internal principles, while quantum mechanics was derived from such principles, because there was no readily available mathematical model to handle quantum phenomena, although the mathematics ultimately used in quantum did in fact exist then. I shall argue, however, that the principle perspective on mathematical modeling outside physics might help us to understand better the role of Q-models in these fields and possibly to envision new models, conceptually analogous to but mathematically different from those of quantum theory, helpful or even necessary there or in physics itself. I shall suggest one possible type of such models, singularized probabilistic, SP, models, some of which are time-dependent, TDSP-models. The

Optimisation of BPMN Business Models via Model Checking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

2013-01-01

We present a framework for the optimisation of business processes modelled in the business process modelling language BPMN, which builds upon earlier work, where we developed a model checking based method for the analysis of BPMN models. We define a structure for expressing optimisation goals...... for synthesized BPMN components, based on probabilistic computation tree logic and real-valued reward structures of the BPMN model, allowing for the specification of complex quantitative goals. We here present a simple algorithm, inspired by concepts from evolutionary algorithms, which iteratively generates...

PENGGUNAAN THE ZMIJEWSKI MODEL, THE ALTMAN MODEL, DAN THE SPRINGATE MODEL SEBAGAI PREDIKTOR DELISTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mila Fatmawati

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate empirical evidence that the Zmijewski model, the Altman model, andthe Springate models could be used as a predictor of delisting the company. Object of this study was to remove thelist of companies that trade shares (delisted in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2003-2009. As a benchmark forcompanies delisted at the top used companies that were still listed on the Stock Exchange with the same numberand kind of business field. Comparison samples were taken randomly over the same period with the companydelisted. The method of analysis used logic regression. The results found that from the three delisting of predictormodels, only the Zmijewski models that could be used to predict the company delisted in the period of observation,while the Altman model and the Springate models could not be used as predictive models delisting. It is becauseThe Zmijewski model emphasized amounts of debt in predict delisting. The bigger the debt was, it would be moreaccurate in predicting as the company’s delisting. Meanwhile, the Altman model and the Springate modelemphasized more on profitability measures. The smaller the profitability was, the more precisely to predictcompany’s delisting. Condition of delisting the company that became object of observation company trends wasstill able to get profit, but it had a relative amount of debt.

Process modelling on a canonical basis[Process modelling; Canonical modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siepmann, Volker

2006-12-20

Based on an equation oriented solving strategy, this thesis investigates a new approach to process modelling. Homogeneous thermodynamic state functions represent consistent mathematical models of thermodynamic properties. Such state functions of solely extensive canonical state variables are the basis of this work, as they are natural objective functions in optimisation nodes to calculate thermodynamic equilibrium regarding phase-interaction and chemical reactions. Analytical state function derivatives are utilised within the solution process as well as interpreted as physical properties. By this approach, only a limited range of imaginable process constraints are considered, namely linear balance equations of state variables. A second-order update of source contributions to these balance equations is obtained by an additional constitutive equation system. These equations are general dependent on state variables and first-order sensitivities, and cover therefore practically all potential process constraints. Symbolic computation technology efficiently provides sparsity and derivative information of active equations to avoid performance problems regarding robustness and computational effort. A benefit of detaching the constitutive equation system is that the structure of the main equation system remains unaffected by these constraints, and a priori information allows to implement an efficient solving strategy and a concise error diagnosis. A tailor-made linear algebra library handles the sparse recursive block structures efficiently. The optimisation principle for single modules of thermodynamic equilibrium is extended to host entire process models. State variables of different modules interact through balance equations, representing material flows from one module to the other. To account for reusability and encapsulation of process module details, modular process modelling is supported by a recursive module structure. The second-order solving algorithm makes it

Generalized latent variable modeling multilevel, longitudinal, and structural equation models

CERN Document Server

Skrondal, Anders; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2004-01-01

This book unifies and extends latent variable models, including multilevel or generalized linear mixed models, longitudinal or panel models, item response or factor models, latent class or finite mixture models, and structural equation models.

A Lagrangian mixing frequency model for transported PDF modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Turkeri, Hasret; Zhao, Xinyu

2017-11-01

In this study, a Lagrangian mixing frequency model is proposed for molecular mixing models within the framework of transported probability density function (PDF) methods. The model is based on the dissipations of mixture fraction and progress variables obtained from Lagrangian particles in PDF methods. The new model is proposed as a remedy to the difficulty in choosing the optimal model constant parameters when using conventional mixing frequency models. The model is implemented in combination with the Interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) mixing model. The performance of the new model is examined by performing simulations of Sandia Flame D and the turbulent premixed flame from the Cambridge stratified flame series. The simulations are performed using the pdfFOAM solver which is a LES/PDF solver developed entirely in OpenFOAM. A 16-species reduced mechanism is used to represent methane/air combustion, and in situ adaptive tabulation is employed to accelerate the finite-rate chemistry calculations. The results are compared with experimental measurements as well as with the results obtained using conventional mixing frequency models. Dynamic mixing frequencies are predicted using the new model without solving additional transport equations, and good agreement with experimental data is observed.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

Science.gov (United States)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Graphical Rasch models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreiner, Svend; Christensen, Karl Bang

Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models......Rasch models; Partial Credit models; Rating Scale models; Item bias; Differential item functioning; Local independence; Graphical models...

Transforming Graphical System Models to Graphical Attack Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

2016-01-01

Manually identifying possible attacks on an organisation is a complex undertaking; many different factors must be considered, and the resulting attack scenarios can be complex and hard to maintain as the organisation changes. System models provide a systematic representation of organisations...... approach to transforming graphical system models to graphical attack models in the form of attack trees. Based on an asset in the model, our transformations result in an attack tree that represents attacks by all possible actors in the model, after which the actor in question has obtained the asset....

Integration of Simulink Models with Component-based Software Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marian, Nicolae

2008-01-01

Model based development aims to facilitate the development of embedded control systems by emphasizing the separation of the design level from the implementation level. Model based design involves the use of multiple models that represent different views of a system, having different semantics...... of abstract system descriptions. Usually, in mechatronics systems, design proceeds by iterating model construction, model analysis, and model transformation. Constructing a MATLAB/Simulink model, a plant and controller behavior is simulated using graphical blocks to represent mathematical and logical...... constraints. COMDES (Component-based Design of Software for Distributed Embedded Systems) is such a component-based system framework developed by the software engineering group of Mads Clausen Institute for Product Innovation (MCI), University of Southern Denmark. Once specified, the software model has...

Pavement Aging Model by Response Surface Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manzano-Ramírez A.

2011-10-01

Full Text Available In this work, surface course aging was modeled by Response Surface Methodology (RSM. The Marshall specimens were placed in a conventional oven for time and temperature conditions established on the basis of the environment factors of the region where the surface course is constructed by AC-20 from the Ing. Antonio M. Amor refinery. Volatilized material (VM, load resistance increment (ΔL and flow resistance increment (ΔF models were developed by the RSM. Cylindrical specimens with real aging were extracted from the surface course pilot to evaluate the error of the models. The VM model was adequate, in contrast (ΔL and (ΔF models were almost adequate with an error of 20 %, that was associated with the other environmental factors, which were not considered at the beginning of the research.

Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

2009-06-01

Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

Model coupler for coupling of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Kobayashi, Takuya; Tsuduki, Katsunori; Kim, Keyong-Ok

2007-02-01

A numerical simulation system SPEEDI-MP, which is applicable for various environmental studies, consists of dynamical models and material transport models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic environments, meteorological and geographical databases for model inputs, and system utilities for file management, visualization, analysis, etc., using graphical user interfaces (GUIs). As a numerical simulation tool, a model coupling program (model coupler) has been developed. It controls parallel calculations of several models and data exchanges among them to realize the dynamical coupling of the models. It is applicable for any models with three-dimensional structured grid system, which is used by most environmental and hydrodynamic models. A coupled model system for water circulation has been constructed with atmosphere, ocean, wave, hydrology, and land-surface models using the model coupler. Performance tests of the coupled model system for water circulation were also carried out for the flood event at Saudi Arabia in January 2005 and the storm surge case by the hurricane KATRINA in August 2005. (author)

ICRF modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, C.K.

1985-12-01

This lecture provides a survey of the methods used to model fast magnetosonic wave coupling, propagation, and absorption in tokamaks. The validity and limitations of three distinct types of modelling codes, which will be contrasted, include discrete models which utilize ray tracing techniques, approximate continuous field models based on a parabolic approximation of the wave equation, and full field models derived using finite difference techniques. Inclusion of mode conversion effects in these models and modification of the minority distribution function will also be discussed. The lecture will conclude with a presentation of time-dependent global transport simulations of ICRF-heated tokamak discharges obtained in conjunction with the ICRF modelling codes. 52 refs., 15 figs

Event Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

2001-01-01

The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

Degeneracy of time series models: The best model is not always the correct model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Judd, Kevin; Nakamura, Tomomichi

2006-01-01

There are a number of good techniques for finding, in some sense, the best model of a deterministic system given a time series of observations. We examine a problem called model degeneracy, which has the consequence that even when a perfect model of a system exists, one does not find it using the best techniques currently available. The problem is illustrated using global polynomial models and the theory of Groebner bases

On the shell model connection of the cluster model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cseh, J.; Levai, G.; Kato, K.

2000-01-01

Complete text of publication follows. The interrelation of basic nuclear structure models is a longstanding problem. The connection between the spherical shell model and the quadrupole collective model has been studied extensively, and symmetry considerations proved to be especially useful in this respect. A collective band was interpreted in the shell model language long ago as a set of states (of the valence nucleons) with a specific SU(3) symmetry. Furthermore, the energies of these rotational states are obtained to a good approximation as eigenvalues of an SU(3) dynamically symmetric shell model Hamiltonian. On the other hand the relation of the shell model and cluster model is less well explored. The connection of the harmonic oscillator (i.e. SU(3)) bases of the two approaches is known, but it was established only for the unrealistic harmonic oscillator interactions. Here we investigate the question: Can an SU(3) dynamically symmetric interaction provide a similar connection between the spherical shell model and the cluster model, like the one between the shell and collective models? In other words: whether or not the energy of the states of the cluster bands, defined by a specific SU(3) symmetries, can be obtained from a shell model Hamiltonian (with SU(3) dynamical symmetry). We carried out calculations within the framework of the semimicroscopic algebraic cluster model, in which not only the cluster model space is obtained from the full shell model space by an SU(3) symmetry-dictated truncation, but SU(3) dynamically symmetric interactions are also applied. Actually, Hamiltonians of this kind proved to be successful in describing the gross features of cluster states in a wide energy range. The novel feature of the present work is that we apply exclusively shell model interactions. The energies obtained from such a Hamiltonian for several bands of the ( 12 C, 14 C, 16 O, 20 Ne, 40 Ca) + α systems turn out to be in good agreement with the experimental

Approximating chiral quark models with linear σ-models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broniowski, Wojciech; Golli, Bojan

2003-01-01

We study the approximation of chiral quark models with simpler models, obtained via gradient expansion. The resulting Lagrangian of the type of the linear σ-model contains, at the lowest level of the gradient-expanded meson action, an additional term of the form ((1)/(2))A(σ∂ μ σ+π∂ μ π) 2 . We investigate the dynamical consequences of this term and its relevance to the phenomenology of the soliton models of the nucleon. It is found that the inclusion of the new term allows for a more efficient approximation of the underlying quark theory, especially in those cases where dynamics allows for a large deviation of the chiral fields from the chiral circle, such as in quark models with non-local regulators. This is of practical importance, since the σ-models with valence quarks only are technically much easier to treat and simpler to solve than the quark models with the full-fledged Dirac sea

Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

CERN Document Server

Fahrmeir, Ludwig

1994-01-01

This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

Science.gov (United States)

Heineke, J. M.

1975-01-01

A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

Air Quality Dispersion Modeling - Alternative Models

Science.gov (United States)

Models, not listed in Appendix W, that can be used in regulatory applications with case-by-case justification to the Reviewing Authority as noted in Section 3.2, Use of Alternative Models, in Appendix W.

On the shell-model-connection of the cluster model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cseh, J.

2000-01-01

Complete text of publication follows. The interrelation of basic nuclear structure models is a longstanding problem. The connection between the spherical shell model and the quadrupole collective model has been studied extensively, and symmetry considerations proved to be especially useful in this respect. A collective band was interpreted in the shell model language long ago [1] as a set of states (of the valence nucleons) with a specific SU(3) symmetry. Furthermore, the energies of these rotational states are obtained to a good approximation as eigenvalues of an SU(3) dynamically symmetric shell model Hamiltonian. On the other hand the relation of the shell model and cluster model is less well explored. The connection of the harmonic oscillator (i.e. SU(3)) bases of the two approaches is known [2] but it was established only for the unrealistic harmonic oscillator interactions. Here we investigate the question: Can an SU(3) dynamically symmetric interaction provide a similar connection between the spherical shell model and the cluster model, like the one between the shell and collective models? In other words: whether or not the energy of the states of the cluster bands, defined by a specific SU(3) symmetries, can be obtained from a shell model Hamiltonian (with SU(3) dynamical symmetry). We carried out calculations within the framework of the semimicroscopic algebraic cluster model [3,4] in order to find an answer to this question, which seems to be affirmative. In particular, the energies obtained from such a Hamiltonian for several bands of the ( 12 C, 14 C, 16 O, 20 Ne, 40 Ca) + α systems turn out to be in good agreement with the experimental values. The present results show that the simple and transparent SU(3) connection between the spherical shell model and the cluster model is valid not only for the harmonic oscillator interactions, but for much more general (SU(3) dynamically symmetric) Hamiltonians as well, which result in realistic energy spectra. Via

Wind tunnel modeling of roadways: Comparison with mathematical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heidorn, K.; Davies, A.E.; Murphy, M.C.

1991-01-01

The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners. In order to assess future road and building configurations, a number of techniques have been developed including mathematical models, which simulate traffic emissions and atmospheric dispersion through a series of mathematical relationships and physical models. The latter models simulate emissions and dispersion through scaling of these processes in a wind tunnel. Two roadway mathematical models, HIWAY-2 and CALINE-4, were applied to a proposed development in a large urban area. Physical modeling procedures developed by Rowan Williams Davies and Irwin Inc. (RWDI) in the form of line source simulators were also applied, and the resulting carbon monoxide concentrations were compared. The results indicated a factor of two agreement between the mathematical and physical models. The physical model, however, reacted to change in building massing and configuration. The mathematical models did not, since no provision for such changes was included in the mathematical models. In general, the RWDI model resulted in higher concentrations than either HIWAY-2 or CALINE-4. Where there was underprediction, it was often due to shielding of the receptor by surrounding buildings. Comparison of these three models with the CALTRANS Tracer Dispersion Experiment showed good results although concentrations were consistently underpredicted

Analysis of deregulation models; Denryoku shijo jiyuka model no bunseki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yajima, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)

1996-04-01

Trends toward power market deregulation were investigated in Japan and 16 other countries, and various deregulation models were examined and evaluated for their merits and demerits. There are four basic models, that is, franchise bidding model, competitive bidding in power generation model, wholesale wheeling or retail wheeling model, and mandatory pool or voluntary pool model. Power market deregulation has been a global tendency since the second half of the 1970s, with various models adopted by different countries. Out of the above-said models, it is the retail wheeling model and pool models (open access models) that allow the final customer to select power suppliers, and the number of countries adopting these models is increasing. The said models are characterized in that the disintegration of the vertical transmission-distribution integration (separation of distribution service and retail supply service) and the liberation of the retail market are simultaneously accomplished. The pool models, in particular, are enjoying favor because conditions for fair competition have already been prepared and because it is believed high in efficiency. In Japan and France, where importance is attached to atomic power generation, the competitive bidding model is adopted as a means to harmonize the introduction of competition into the source development and power generation sectors. 7 refs., 4 tabs.

Modelling Overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Lars Bjørn; Vesterager, Johan

This report provides an overview of the existing models of global manufacturing, describes the required modelling views and associated methods and identifies tools, which can provide support for this modelling activity.The model adopted for global manufacturing is that of an extended enterprise s...

Statistical Model Checking of Rich Models and Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Danny Bøgsted

in undecidability issues for the traditional model checking approaches. Statistical model checking has proven itself a valuable supplement to model checking and this thesis is concerned with extending this software validation technique to stochastic hybrid systems. The thesis consists of two parts: the first part...... motivates why existing model checking technology should be supplemented by new techniques. It also contains a brief introduction to probability theory and concepts covered by the six papers making up the second part. The first two papers are concerned with developing online monitoring techniques...... systems. The fifth paper shows how stochastic hybrid automata are useful for modelling biological systems and the final paper is concerned with showing how statistical model checking is efficiently distributed. In parallel with developing the theory contained in the papers, a substantial part of this work...

Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

H. Stockman

2001-09-28

The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockman, H.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)

Assessing physical models used in nuclear aerosol transport models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, B.H.

1987-01-01

Computer codes used to predict the behaviour of aerosols in water-cooled reactor containment buildings after severe accidents contain a variety of physical models. Special models are in place for describing agglomeration processes where small aerosol particles combine to form larger ones. Other models are used to calculate the rates at which aerosol particles are deposited on building structures. Condensation of steam on aerosol particles is currently a very active area in aerosol modelling. In this paper, the physical models incorporated in the current available international codes for all of these processes are reviewed and documented. There is considerable variation in models used in different codes, and some uncertainties exist as to which models are superior. 28 refs

Particle Tracking Model (PTM) with Coastal Modeling System (CMS)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-04

Coastal Inlets Research Program Particle Tracking Model (PTM) with Coastal Modeling System ( CMS ) The Particle Tracking Model (PTM) is a Lagrangian...currents and waves. The Coastal Inlets Research Program (CIRP) supports the PTM with the Coastal Modeling System ( CMS ), which provides coupled wave...and current forcing for PTM simulations. CMS -PTM is implemented in the Surface-water Modeling System, a GUI environment for input development

A BRDF statistical model applying to space target materials modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Chenghao; Li, Zhi; Xu, Can; Tian, Qichen

2017-10-01

In order to solve the problem of poor effect in modeling the large density BRDF measured data with five-parameter semi-empirical model, a refined statistical model of BRDF which is suitable for multi-class space target material modeling were proposed. The refined model improved the Torrance-Sparrow model while having the modeling advantages of five-parameter model. Compared with the existing empirical model, the model contains six simple parameters, which can approximate the roughness distribution of the material surface, can approximate the intensity of the Fresnel reflectance phenomenon and the attenuation of the reflected light's brightness with the azimuth angle changes. The model is able to achieve parameter inversion quickly with no extra loss of accuracy. The genetic algorithm was used to invert the parameters of 11 different samples in the space target commonly used materials, and the fitting errors of all materials were below 6%, which were much lower than those of five-parameter model. The effect of the refined model is verified by comparing the fitting results of the three samples at different incident zenith angles in 0° azimuth angle. Finally, the three-dimensional modeling visualizations of these samples in the upper hemisphere space was given, in which the strength of the optical scattering of different materials could be clearly shown. It proved the good describing ability of the refined model at the material characterization as well.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-28

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA's legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level

Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott B.

2000-01-01

"What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

Agency interaction at the Savannah River Plant under the Endangered Species Act

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackey, H.E. Jr.

1985-01-01

The 300 square mile Savannah River Plant (SRP) offers a variety of protected habitats for endangered species including the alligator (resident), red-cockaded woodpecker (resident), short-nose sturgeon (migratory), and wood stork (fish-forager). The most recent of these four species to be listed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (US FWS) is the wood stork. It had been observed prior to 1983 as an infrequent forager in the SRP Savannah River Swamp which adjoins SRP on the south and southwest. In anticipation of its listing as an endangered species, DOE-SR requested in the spring of 1983 that the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, University of Georgia, conduct field surveys and studies of the nearest colony of wood storks to SRP (the Birdsville colony in north-central Georgia). The objective of these studies was to determine potential effects of the flooding of the Steel Creek swamp area with cooling water from L-Reactor. L-Reactor, which is proposed for restart, has not been operated since 1968. The survey found that wood storks forage in the Steel Creek delta swamp area of the Savannah River at SRP. Based on the numbers of storks at various foraging locations, sites at SRP ranked higher than non-SRP sites during the pre-fledging phase of the colony. Cold flow testing of L-Reactor also demonstrated that foraging sites in the Steel Creek delta would be unavailable during L-Reactor operation because of increased water levels

Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy-Dispersive X-Ray Microanalysis of Set CEM Cement after Application of Different Bleaching Agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Samiei, Mohammad; Janani, Maryam; Vahdati, Amin; Alemzadeh, Yalda; Bahari, Mahmoud

2017-01-01

The present study evaluated the element distribution in completely set calcium-enriched mixture (CEM) cement after application of 35% carbamide peroxide, 40% hydrogen peroxide and sodium perborate as commercial bleaching agents using an energy-dispersive x-ray microanalysis (EDX) system. The surface structure was also observed using the scanning electron microscope (SEM). Twenty completely set CEM cement samples, measuring 4×4 mm 2 , were prepared in the present in vitro study and randomly divided into 4 groups based on the preparation technique as follows: the control group; 35% carbamide peroxide group in contact for 30-60 min for 4 times; 40% hydrogen peroxide group with contact time of 15-20 min for 3 times; and sodium perborate group, where the powder and liquid were mixed and placed on CEM cement surface 4 times. Data were analyzed at a significance level of 0.05 through the one Way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc tests. EDX showed similar element distribution of oxygen, sodium, calcium and carbon in CEM cement with the use of carbamide peroxide and hydroxide peroxide; however, the distribution of silicon was different ( P structure. Sodium perborate was similar to control group due to its weak oxidizing properties. Globular structures and numerous woodpecker holes were observed on the even surface on the carbamide peroxide group. The mean elemental distribution of completely set CEM cement was different when exposed to sodium perborate, carbamide peroxide and hydrogen peroxide.

Stochastic biomathematical models with applications to neuronal modeling

CERN Document Server

Batzel, Jerry; Ditlevsen, Susanne

2013-01-01

Stochastic biomathematical models are becoming increasingly important as new light is shed on the role of noise in living systems. In certain biological systems, stochastic effects may even enhance a signal, thus providing a biological motivation for the noise observed in living systems. Recent advances in stochastic analysis and increasing computing power facilitate the analysis of more biophysically realistic models, and this book provides researchers in computational neuroscience and stochastic systems with an overview of recent developments. Key concepts are developed in chapters written by experts in their respective fields. Topics include: one-dimensional homogeneous diffusions and their boundary behavior, large deviation theory and its application in stochastic neurobiological models, a review of mathematical methods for stochastic neuronal integrate-and-fire models, stochastic partial differential equation models in neurobiology, and stochastic modeling of spreading cortical depression.

Modelling of an homogeneous equilibrium mixture model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard-Champmartin, A.; Poujade, O.; Mathiaud, J.; Mathiaud, J.; Ghidaglia, J.M.

2014-01-01

We present here a model for two phase flows which is simpler than the 6-equations models (with two densities, two velocities, two temperatures) but more accurate than the standard mixture models with 4 equations (with two densities, one velocity and one temperature). We are interested in the case when the two-phases have been interacting long enough for the drag force to be small but still not negligible. The so-called Homogeneous Equilibrium Mixture Model (HEM) that we present is dealing with both mixture and relative quantities, allowing in particular to follow both a mixture velocity and a relative velocity. This relative velocity is not tracked by a conservation law but by a closure law (drift relation), whose expression is related to the drag force terms of the two-phase flow. After the derivation of the model, a stability analysis and numerical experiments are presented. (authors)

Temperature-based modeling of reference evapotranspiration using several artificial intelligence models: application of different modeling scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sanikhani, Hadi; Kisi, Ozgur; Maroufpoor, Eisa; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

2018-02-01

The establishment of an accurate computational model for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) process is highly essential for several agricultural and hydrological applications, especially for the rural water resource systems, water use allocations, utilization and demand assessments, and the management of irrigation systems. In this research, six artificial intelligence (AI) models were investigated for modeling ET0 using a small number of climatic data generated from the minimum and maximum temperatures of the air and extraterrestrial radiation. The investigated models were multilayer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), integrated adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partitioning and subtractive clustering (ANFIS-GP and ANFIS-SC), and gene expression programming (GEP). The implemented monthly time scale data set was collected at the Antalya and Isparta stations which are located in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey. The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation and its calibrated version (CHS) were used to perform a verification analysis of the established AI models. The accuracy of validation was focused on multiple quantitative metrics, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R 2), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS). The results of the conducted models were highly practical and reliable for the investigated case studies. At the Antalya station, the performance of the GEP and GRNN models was better than the other investigated models, while the performance of the RBNN and ANFIS-SC models was best compared to the other models at the Isparta station. Except for the MLP model, all the other investigated models presented a better performance accuracy compared to the HS and CHS empirical models when applied in a cross-station scenario. A cross-station scenario examination implies the

Deformed baryons: constituent quark model vs. bag model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwamura, Y.; Nogami, Y.

1985-01-01

Recently Bhaduri et al. developed a nonrelativistic constituent quark model for deformed baryons. In that model the quarks move in a deformable mean field, and the deformation parameters are determined by minimizing the quark energy subject to the constraint of volume conservation. This constraint is an ad hoc assumption. It is shown that, starting with a bag model, a model similar to that of Bhaduri et al. can be constructed. The deformation parameters are determined by the pressure balance on the bag surface. There is, however, a distinct difference between the two models with respect to the state dependence of the ''volume''. Implications of this difference are discussed

Business Model Innovation: How Iconic Business Models Emerge

OpenAIRE

Mikhalkina, T.; Cabantous, L.

2015-01-01

Despite ample research on the topic of business model innovation, little is known about the cognitive processes whereby some innovative business models gain the status of iconic representations of particular types of firms. This study addresses the question: How do iconic business models emerge? In other words: How do innovative business models become prototypical exemplars for new categories of firms? We focus on the case of Airbnb, and analyze how six mainstream business media publications ...

ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

OpenAIRE

Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

2016-01-01

Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

2007-01-01

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcing. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcing, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcing are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcing, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcing, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcing, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistic weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcing are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (authors)

ModelMage: a tool for automatic model generation, selection and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Flöttmann, Max; Schaber, Jörg; Hoops, Stephan; Klipp, Edda; Mendes, Pedro

2008-01-01

Mathematical modeling of biological systems usually involves implementing, simulating, and discriminating several candidate models that represent alternative hypotheses. Generating and managing these candidate models is a tedious and difficult task and can easily lead to errors. ModelMage is a tool that facilitates management of candidate models. It is designed for the easy and rapid development, generation, simulation, and discrimination of candidate models. The main idea of the program is to automatically create a defined set of model alternatives from a single master model. The user provides only one SBML-model and a set of directives from which the candidate models are created by leaving out species, modifiers or reactions. After generating models the software can automatically fit all these models to the data and provides a ranking for model selection, in case data is available. In contrast to other model generation programs, ModelMage aims at generating only a limited set of models that the user can precisely define. ModelMage uses COPASI as a simulation and optimization engine. Thus, all simulation and optimization features of COPASI are readily incorporated. ModelMage can be downloaded from http://sysbio.molgen.mpg.de/modelmage and is distributed as free software.

Modelling binary data

CERN Document Server

Collett, David

2002-01-01

INTRODUCTION Some Examples The Scope of this Book Use of Statistical Software STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR BINARY DATA The Binomial Distribution Inference about the Success Probability Comparison of Two Proportions Comparison of Two or More Proportions MODELS FOR BINARY AND BINOMIAL DATA Statistical Modelling Linear Models Methods of Estimation Fitting Linear Models to Binomial Data Models for Binomial Response Data The Linear Logistic Model Fitting the Linear Logistic Model to Binomial Data Goodness of Fit of a Linear Logistic Model Comparing Linear Logistic Models Linear Trend in Proportions Comparing Stimulus-Response Relationships Non-Convergence and Overfitting Some other Goodness of Fit Statistics Strategy for Model Selection Predicting a Binary Response Probability BIOASSAY AND SOME OTHER APPLICATIONS The Tolerance Distribution Estimating an Effective Dose Relative Potency Natural Response Non-Linear Logistic Regression Models Applications of the Complementary Log-Log Model MODEL CHECKING Definition of Re...

Model theory

CERN Document Server

Chang, CC

2012-01-01

Model theory deals with a branch of mathematical logic showing connections between a formal language and its interpretations or models. This is the first and most successful textbook in logical model theory. Extensively updated and corrected in 1990 to accommodate developments in model theoretic methods - including classification theory and nonstandard analysis - the third edition added entirely new sections, exercises, and references. Each chapter introduces an individual method and discusses specific applications. Basic methods of constructing models include constants, elementary chains, Sko

Multistate Model Builder (MSMB): a flexible editor for compact biochemical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmisano, Alida; Hoops, Stefan; Watson, Layne T; Jones, Thomas C; Tyson, John J; Shaffer, Clifford A

2014-04-04

Building models of molecular regulatory networks is challenging not just because of the intrinsic difficulty of describing complex biological processes. Writing a model is a creative effort that calls for more flexibility and interactive support than offered by many of today's biochemical model editors. Our model editor MSMB - Multistate Model Builder - supports multistate models created using different modeling styles. MSMB provides two separate advances on existing network model editors. (1) A simple but powerful syntax is used to describe multistate species. This reduces the number of reactions needed to represent certain molecular systems, thereby reducing the complexity of model creation. (2) Extensive feedback is given during all stages of the model creation process on the existing state of the model. Users may activate error notifications of varying stringency on the fly, and use these messages as a guide toward a consistent, syntactically correct model. MSMB default values and behavior during model manipulation (e.g., when renaming or deleting an element) can be adapted to suit the modeler, thus supporting creativity rather than interfering with it. MSMB's internal model representation allows saving a model with errors and inconsistencies (e.g., an undefined function argument; a syntactically malformed reaction). A consistent model can be exported to SBML or COPASI formats. We show the effectiveness of MSMB's multistate syntax through models of the cell cycle and mRNA transcription. Using multistate reactions reduces the number of reactions need to encode many biochemical network models. This reduces the cognitive load for a given model, thereby making it easier for modelers to build more complex models. The many interactive editing support features provided by MSMB make it easier for modelers to create syntactically valid models, thus speeding model creation. Complete information and the installation package can be found at http

Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michael J Iacono

2011-04-07

This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

Science.gov (United States)

Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

2009-05-01

Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

Modeling soil water content for vegetation modeling improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Cianfrani, Carmen; Buri, Aline; Zingg, Barbara; Vittoz, Pascal; Verrecchia, Eric; Guisan, Antoine

2016-04-01

Soil water content (SWC) is known to be important for plants as it affects the physiological processes regulating plant growth. Therefore, SWC controls plant distribution over the Earth surface, ranging from deserts and grassland to rain forests. Unfortunately, only a few data on SWC are available as its measurement is very time consuming and costly and needs specific laboratory tools. The scarcity of SWC measurements in geographic space makes it difficult to model and spatially project SWC over larger areas. In particular, it prevents its inclusion in plant species distribution model (SDMs) as predictor. The aims of this study were, first, to test a new methodology allowing problems of the scarcity of SWC measurements to be overpassed and second, to model and spatially project SWC in order to improve plant SDMs with the inclusion of SWC parameter. The study was developed in four steps. First, SWC was modeled by measuring it at 10 different pressures (expressed in pF and ranging from pF=0 to pF=4.2). The different pF represent different degrees of soil water availability for plants. An ensemble of bivariate models was built to overpass the problem of having only a few SWC measurements (n = 24) but several predictors to include in the model. Soil texture (clay, silt, sand), organic matter (OM), topographic variables (elevation, aspect, convexity), climatic variables (precipitation) and hydrological variables (river distance, NDWI) were used as predictors. Weighted ensemble models were built using only bivariate models with adjusted-R2 > 0.5 for each SWC at different pF. The second step consisted in running plant SDMs including modeled SWC jointly with the conventional topo-climatic variable used for plant SDMs. Third, SDMs were only run using the conventional topo-climatic variables. Finally, comparing the models obtained in the second and third steps allowed assessing the additional predictive power of SWC in plant SDMs. SWC ensemble models remained very good, with

Computer-aided modeling framework – a generic modeling template

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fedorova, Marina; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

and test models systematically, efficiently and reliably. In this way, development of products and processes can be made faster, cheaper and more efficient. In this contribution, as part of the framework, a generic modeling template for the systematic derivation of problem specific models is presented....... The application of the modeling template is highlighted with a case study related to the modeling of a catalytic membrane reactor coupling dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene with hydrogenation of nitrobenzene...

A simplified model exploration research of new anisotropic diffuse radiation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, Wanxiang; Li, Zhengrong; Wang, Xiao; Zhao, Qun; Zhang, Zhigang; Lin, Lin

2016-01-01

Graphical abstract: The specific process of measured diffuse radiation data. - Highlights: • Simplified diffuse radiation model is extremely important for solar radiation simulation and energy simulation. • A new simplified anisotropic diffuse radiation model (NSADR model) is proposed. • The accuracy of existing models and NSADR model is compared based on the measured values. • The accuracy of the NSADR model is higher than that of the existing models, and suitable for calculating diffuse radiation. - Abstract: More accurate new anisotropic diffuse radiation model (NADR model) has been proposed, but the parameters and calculation process of NADR model used in the process are complex. So it is difficult to widely used in the simulation software and engineering calculation. Based on analysis of the diffuse radiation model and measured diffuse radiation data, this paper put forward three hypotheses: (1) diffuse radiation from sky horizontal region is concentrated in a very thin layer which is close to the line source; (2) diffuse radiation from circumsolar region is concentrated in the point of the sun; (3) diffuse radiation from orthogonal region is concentrated in the point located at 90 degree angles with the Sun. Based on these hypotheses, NADR model is simplified to a new simplified anisotropic diffuse radiation model (NSADR model). Then the accuracy of NADR model and its simplified model (NSADR model) are compared with existing models based on the measured values, and the result shows that Perez model and its simplified model are relatively accurate among existing models. However, the accuracy of these two models is lower than the NADR model and NSADR model due to neglect the influence of the orthogonal diffuse radiation. The accuracy of the NSADR model is higher than that of the existing models, meanwhile, another advantage is that the NSADR model simplifies the process of solution parameters and calculation. Therefore it is more suitable for

Biosphere Model Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D. W. Wu

2003-07-16

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

Biosphere Model Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. A. Wasiolek

2003-10-27

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

Biosphere Model Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D. W. Wu

2003-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Model-free and model-based reward prediction errors in EEG.

Science.gov (United States)

Sambrook, Thomas D; Hardwick, Ben; Wills, Andy J; Goslin, Jeremy

2018-05-24

Learning theorists posit two reinforcement learning systems: model-free and model-based. Model-based learning incorporates knowledge about structure and contingencies in the world to assign candidate actions with an expected value. Model-free learning is ignorant of the world's structure; instead, actions hold a value based on prior reinforcement, with this value updated by expectancy violation in the form of a reward prediction error. Because they use such different learning mechanisms, it has been previously assumed that model-based and model-free learning are computationally dissociated in the brain. However, recent fMRI evidence suggests that the brain may compute reward prediction errors to both model-free and model-based estimates of value, signalling the possibility that these systems interact. Because of its poor temporal resolution, fMRI risks confounding reward prediction errors with other feedback-related neural activity. In the present study, EEG was used to show the presence of both model-based and model-free reward prediction errors and their place in a temporal sequence of events including state prediction errors and action value updates. This demonstration of model-based prediction errors questions a long-held assumption that model-free and model-based learning are dissociated in the brain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Peter Wei-Der [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1992-01-01

The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS`s do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data model that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the ``Extensible Object Model``, to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.

Sequence modelling and an extensible data model for genomic database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Peter Wei-Der (California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States) Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-01-01

The Human Genome Project (HGP) plans to sequence the human genome by the beginning of the next century. It will generate DNA sequences of more than 10 billion bases and complex marker sequences (maps) of more than 100 million markers. All of these information will be stored in database management systems (DBMSs). However, existing data models do not have the abstraction mechanism for modelling sequences and existing DBMS's do not have operations for complex sequences. This work addresses the problem of sequence modelling in the context of the HGP and the more general problem of an extensible object data model that can incorporate the sequence model as well as existing and future data constructs and operators. First, we proposed a general sequence model that is application and implementation independent. This model is used to capture the sequence information found in the HGP at the conceptual level. In addition, abstract and biological sequence operators are defined for manipulating the modelled sequences. Second, we combined many features of semantic and object oriented data models into an extensible framework, which we called the Extensible Object Model'', to address the need of a modelling framework for incorporating the sequence data model with other types of data constructs and operators. This framework is based on the conceptual separation between constructors and constraints. We then used this modelling framework to integrate the constructs for the conceptual sequence model. The Extensible Object Model is also defined with a graphical representation, which is useful as a tool for database designers. Finally, we defined a query language to support this model and implement the query processor to demonstrate the feasibility of the extensible framework and the usefulness of the conceptual sequence model.

Modelling of JET diagnostics using Bayesian Graphical Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, J. [IPP Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Ford, O. [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); McDonald, D.; Hole, M.; Nessi, G. von; Meakins, A.; Brix, M.; Thomsen, H.; Werner, A.; Sirinelli, A.

2011-07-01

The mapping between physics parameters (such as densities, currents, flows, temperatures etc) defining the plasma 'state' under a given model and the raw observations of each plasma diagnostic will 1) depend on the particular physics model used, 2) is inherently probabilistic, from uncertainties on both observations and instrumental aspects of the mapping, such as calibrations, instrument functions etc. A flexible and principled way of modelling such interconnected probabilistic systems is through so called Bayesian graphical models. Being an amalgam between graph theory and probability theory, Bayesian graphical models can simulate the complex interconnections between physics models and diagnostic observations from multiple heterogeneous diagnostic systems, making it relatively easy to optimally combine the observations from multiple diagnostics for joint inference on parameters of the underlying physics model, which in itself can be represented as part of the graph. At JET about 10 diagnostic systems have to date been modelled in this way, and has lead to a number of new results, including: the reconstruction of the flux surface topology and q-profiles without any specific equilibrium assumption, using information from a number of different diagnostic systems; profile inversions taking into account the uncertainties in the flux surface positions and a substantial increase in accuracy of JET electron density and temperature profiles, including improved pedestal resolution, through the joint analysis of three diagnostic systems. It is believed that the Bayesian graph approach could potentially be utilised for very large sets of diagnostics, providing a generic data analysis framework for nuclear fusion experiments, that would be able to optimally utilize the information from multiple diagnostics simultaneously, and where the explicit graph representation of the connections to underlying physics models could be used for sophisticated model testing. This

Culturicon model: A new model for cultural-based emoticon

Science.gov (United States)

Zukhi, Mohd Zhafri Bin Mohd; Hussain, Azham

2017-10-01

Emoticons are popular among distributed collective interaction user in expressing their emotion, gestures and actions. Emoticons have been proved to be able to avoid misunderstanding of the message, attention saving and improved the communications among different native speakers. However, beside the benefits that emoticons can provide, the study regarding emoticons in cultural perspective is still lacking. As emoticons are crucial in global communication, culture should be one of the extensively research aspect in distributed collective interaction. Therefore, this study attempt to explore and develop model for cultural-based emoticon. Three cultural models that have been used in Human-Computer Interaction were studied which are the Hall Culture Model, Trompenaars and Hampden Culture Model and Hofstede Culture Model. The dimensions from these three models will be used in developing the proposed cultural-based emoticon model.

Business Models and Business Model Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai J.; Saebi, Tina

2018-01-01

While research on business models and business model innovation continue to exhibit growth, the field is still, even after more than two decades of research, characterized by a striking lack of cumulative theorizing and an opportunistic borrowing of more or less related ideas from neighbouring...

The bumper bundle book of modelling NLP modelling made simple

CERN Document Server

Burgess, Fran

2014-01-01

A Neurolinguistic Programming textbook which focusses on the core activity of NLP - modelling. It covers the thinking behind NLP modelling, presents an extensive range of modelling methodologies and skills, offers applications of modelling, and provides specific details for model and technique construction.

Anatomically accurate, finite model eye for optical modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, H L; Brennan, N A

1997-08-01

There is a need for a schematic eye that models vision accurately under various conditions such as refractive surgical procedures, contact lens and spectacle wear, and near vision. Here we propose a new model eye close to anatomical, biometric, and optical realities. This is a finite model with four aspheric refracting surfaces and a gradient-index lens. It has an equivalent power of 60.35 D and an axial length of 23.95 mm. The new model eye provides spherical aberration values within the limits of empirical results and predicts chromatic aberration for wavelengths between 380 and 750 nm. It provides a model for calculating optical transfer functions and predicting optical performance of the eye.

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

2007-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.

2017-01-01

Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid

Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Gomes

Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to

Viscoelastic Model for Lung Parenchyma for Multi-Scale Modeling of Respiratory System, Phase II: Dodecahedral Micro-Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freed, Alan D.; Einstein, Daniel R.; Carson, James P.; Jacob, Rick E.

2012-03-01

In the first year of this contractual effort a hypo-elastic constitutive model was developed and shown to have great potential in modeling the elastic response of parenchyma. This model resides at the macroscopic level of the continuum. In this, the second year of our support, an isotropic dodecahedron is employed as an alveolar model. This is a microscopic model for parenchyma. A hopeful outcome is that the linkage between these two scales of modeling will be a source of insight and inspiration that will aid us in the final year's activity: creating a viscoelastic model for parenchyma.

Ventilation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, H.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this analysis and model report (AMR) for the Ventilation Model is to analyze the effects of pre-closure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts and provide heat removal data to support EBS design. It will also provide input data (initial conditions, and time varying boundary conditions) for the EBS post-closure performance assessment and the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Process Model. The objective of the analysis is to develop, describe, and apply calculation methods and models that can be used to predict thermal conditions within emplacement drifts under forced ventilation during the pre-closure period. The scope of this analysis includes: (1) Provide a general description of effects and heat transfer process of emplacement drift ventilation. (2) Develop a modeling approach to simulate the impacts of pre-closure ventilation on the thermal conditions in emplacement drifts. (3) Identify and document inputs to be used for modeling emplacement ventilation. (4) Perform calculations of temperatures and heat removal in the emplacement drift. (5) Address general considerations of the effect of water/moisture removal by ventilation on the repository thermal conditions. The numerical modeling in this document will be limited to heat-only modeling and calculations. Only a preliminary assessment of the heat/moisture ventilation effects and modeling method will be performed in this revision. Modeling of moisture effects on heat removal and emplacement drift temperature may be performed in the future

Methodology for geometric modelling. Presentation and administration of site descriptive models; Metodik foer geometrisk modellering. Presentation och administration av platsbeskrivande modeller

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munier, Raymond [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hermanson, Jan [Golder Associates (Sweden)

2001-03-01

This report presents a methodology to construct, visualise and present geoscientific descriptive models based on data from the site investigations, which the SKB currently performs, to build an underground nuclear waste disposal facility in Sweden. It is designed for interaction with SICADA (SKB:s site characterisation database) and RVS (SKB:s Rock Visualisation System). However, the concepts of the methodology are general and can be used with other tools capable of handling 3D geometries and parameters. The descriptive model is intended to be an instrument where site investigation data from all disciplines are put together to form a comprehensive visual interpretation of the studied rock mass. The methodology has four main components: 1. Construction of a geometrical model of the interpreted main structures at the site. 2. Description of the geoscientific characteristics of the structures. 3. Description and geometrical implementation of the geometric uncertainties in the interpreted model structures. 4. Quality system for the handling of the geometrical model, its associated database and some aspects of the technical auditing. The geometrical model forms a basis for understanding the main elements and structures of the investigated site. Once the interpreted geometries are in place in the model, the system allows for adding descriptive and quantitative data to each modelled object through a system of intuitive menus. The associated database allows each geometrical object a complete quantitative description of all geoscientific disciplines, variabilities, uncertainties in interpretation and full version history. The complete geometrical model and its associated database of object descriptions are to be recorded in a central quality system. Official, new and old versions of the model are administered centrally in order to have complete quality assurance of each step in the interpretation process. The descriptive model is a cornerstone in the understanding of the

Coupled model of INM-IO global ocean model, CICE sea ice model and SCM OIAS framework

Science.gov (United States)

Bayburin, Ruslan; Rashit, Ibrayev; Konstantin, Ushakov; Vladimir, Kalmykov; Gleb, Dyakonov

2015-04-01

Status of coupled Arctic model of ocean and sea ice is presented. Model consists of INM IO global ocean component of high resolution, Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE sea ice model and a framework SCM OIAS for the ocean-ice-atmosphere-land coupled modeling on massively-parallel architectures. Model is currently under development at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Hydrometeorological Center (HMC) and P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO). Model is aimed at modeling of intra-annual variability of hydrodynamics in Arctic and. The computational characteristics of the world ocean-sea ice coupled model governed by SCM OIAS are presented. The model is parallelized using MPI technologies and currently can use efficiently up to 5000 cores. Details of programming implementation, computational configuration and physical phenomena parametrization are analyzed in terms of intercoupling complex. Results of five year computational experiment of sea ice, snow and ocean state evolution in Arctic region on tripole grid with horizontal resolution of 3-5 kilometers, closed by atmospheric forcing field from repeating "normal" annual course taken from CORE1 experiment data base are presented and analyzed in terms of the state of vorticity and warm Atlantic water expansion.

Models of breast cancer: quo vadis, animal modeling?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, Kay-Uwe

2004-01-01

Rodent models for breast cancer have for many decades provided unparalleled insights into cellular and molecular aspects of neoplastic transformation and tumorigenesis. Despite recent improvements in the fidelity of genetically engineered mice, rodent models are still being criticized by many colleagues for not being 'authentic' enough to the human disease. Motives for this criticism are manifold and range from a very general antipathy against the rodent model system to well-founded arguments that highlight physiological variations between species. Newly proposed differences in genetic pathways that cause cancer in humans and mice invigorated the ongoing discussion about the legitimacy of the murine system to model the human disease. The present commentary intends to stimulate a debate on this subject by providing the background about new developments in animal modeling, by disputing suggested limitations of genetically engineered mice, and by discussing improvements but also ambiguous expectations on the authenticity of xenograft models to faithfully mimic the human disease

Mathematical modelling

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

This book provides a thorough introduction to the challenge of applying mathematics in real-world scenarios. Modelling tasks rarely involve well-defined categories, and they often require multidisciplinary input from mathematics, physics, computer sciences, or engineering. In keeping with this spirit of modelling, the book includes a wealth of cross-references between the chapters and frequently points to the real-world context. The book combines classical approaches to modelling with novel areas such as soft computing methods, inverse problems, and model uncertainty. Attention is also paid to the interaction between models, data and the use of mathematical software. The reader will find a broad selection of theoretical tools for practicing industrial mathematics, including the analysis of continuum models, probabilistic and discrete phenomena, and asymptotic and sensitivity analysis.

Empirical investigation on modeling solar radiation series with ARMA–GARCH models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong; Zhao, Na; Zhou, Jianzhong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Apply 6 ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to model and forecast solar radiation. • The ARMA–GARCH(-M) models produce more accurate radiation forecasting than conventional methods. • Show that ARMA–GARCH-M models are more effective for forecasting solar radiation mean and volatility. • The ARMA–EGARCH-M is robust and the ARMA–sGARCH-M is very competitive. - Abstract: Simulation of radiation is one of the most important issues in solar utilization. Time series models are useful tools in the estimation and forecasting of solar radiation series and their changes. In this paper, the effectiveness of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) processes, namely ARMA–GARCH models are evaluated for their effectiveness in radiation series. Six different GARCH approaches, which contain three different ARMA–GARCH models and corresponded GARCH in mean (ARMA–GARCH-M) models, are applied in radiation data sets from two representative climate stations in China. Multiple evaluation metrics of modeling sufficiency are used for evaluating the performances of models. The results show that the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models are effective in radiation series estimation. Both in fitting and prediction of radiation series, the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models show better modeling sufficiency than traditional models, while ARMA–EGARCH-M models are robustness in two sites and the ARMA–sGARCH-M models appear very competitive. Comparisons of statistical diagnostics and model performance clearly show that the ARMA–GARCH-M models make the mean radiation equations become more sufficient. It is recommended the ARMA–GARCH(-M) models to be the preferred method to use in the modeling of solar radiation series

Hydrogeological conceptual model development and numerical modelling using CONNECTFLOW, Forsmark modelling stage 2.3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Hartley, Lee; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David (Serco TAP (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

2008-05-15

Three versions of a site descriptive model (SDM) have been completed for the Forsmark area. Version 0 established the state of knowledge prior to the start of the site investigation programme. Version 1.1 was essentially a training exercise and was completed during 2004. Version 1.2 was a preliminary site description and concluded the initial site investigation work (ISI) in June 2005. Three modelling stages are planned for the complete site investigation work (CSI). These are labelled stage 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, respectively. An important component of each of these stages is to address and continuously try to resolve discipline-specific uncertainties of importance for repository engineering and safety assessment. Stage 2.1 included an updated geological model for Forsmark and aimed to provide a feedback from the modelling working group to the site investigation team to enable completion of the site investigation work. Stage 2.2 described the conceptual understanding and the numerical modelling of the bedrock hydrogeology in the Forsmark area based on data freeze 2.2. The present report describes the modelling based on data freeze 2.3, which is the final data freeze in Forsmark. In comparison, data freeze 2.3 is considerably smaller than data freeze 2.2. Therefore, stage 2.3 deals primarily with model confirmation and uncertainty analysis, e.g. verification of important hypotheses made in stage 2.2 and the role of parameter uncertainty in the numerical modelling. On the whole, the work reported here constitutes an addendum to the work reported in stage 2.2. Two changes were made to the CONNECTFLOW code in stage 2.3. These serve to: 1) improve the representation of the hydraulic properties of the regolith, and 2) improve the conditioning of transmissivity of the deformation zones against single-hole hydraulic tests. The changes to the modelling of the regolith were made to improve the consistency with models made with the MIKE SHE code, which involved the introduction

The Use of Modeling-Based Text to Improve Students' Modeling Competencies

Science.gov (United States)

Jong, Jing-Ping; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Chung, Shiao-Lan

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of a modeling-based text on 10th graders' modeling competencies. Fifteen 10th graders read a researcher-developed modeling-based science text on the ideal gas law that included explicit descriptions and representations of modeling processes (i.e., model selection, model construction, model validation, model…

Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues

Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-02-26

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.

Rotating universe models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tozini, A.V.

1984-01-01

A review is made of some properties of the rotating Universe models. Godel's model is identified as a generalized filted model. Some properties of new solutions of the Einstein's equations, which are rotating non-stationary Universe models, are presented and analyzed. These models have the Godel's model as a particular case. Non-stationary cosmological models are found which are a generalization of the Godel's metrics in an analogous way in which Friedmann is to the Einstein's model. (L.C.) [pt

Ground-water solute transport modeling using a three-dimensional scaled model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crider, S.S.

1987-01-01

Scaled models are used extensively in current hydraulic research on sediment transport and solute dispersion in free surface flows (rivers, estuaries), but are neglected in current ground-water model research. Thus, an investigation was conducted to test the efficacy of a three-dimensional scaled model of solute transport in ground water. No previous results from such a model have been reported. Experiments performed on uniform scaled models indicated that some historical problems (e.g., construction and scaling difficulties; disproportionate capillary rise in model) were partly overcome by using simple model materials (sand, cement and water), by restricting model application to selective classes of problems, and by physically controlling the effect of the model capillary zone. Results from these tests were compared with mathematical models. Model scaling laws were derived for ground-water solute transport and used to build a three-dimensional scaled model of a ground-water tritium plume in a prototype aquifer on the Savannah River Plant near Aiken, South Carolina. Model results compared favorably with field data and with a numerical model. Scaled models are recommended as a useful additional tool for prediction of ground-water solute transport

Nonintersecting string model and graphical approach: equivalence with a Potts model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perk, J.H.H.; Wu, F.Y.

1986-01-01

Using a graphical method the authors establish the exact equivalence of the partition function of a q-state nonintersecting string (NIS) model on an arbitrary planar, even-valenced lattice with that of a q 2 -state Potts model on a relaxed lattice. The NIS model considered in this paper is one in which the vertex weights are expressible as sums of those of basic vertex types, and the resulting Potts model generally has multispin interactions. For the square and Kagome lattices this leads to the equivalence of a staggered NIS model with Potts models with anisotropic pair interactions, indicating that these NIS models have a first-order transition for q greater than 2. For the triangular lattice the NIS model turns out to be the five-vertex model of Wu and Lin and it relates to a Potts model with two- and three-site interactions. The most general model the authors discuss is an oriented NIS model which contains the six-vertex model and the NIS models of Stroganov and Schultz as special cases

BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Glont, Mihai; Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Malik-Sheriff, Rahuman S; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Le Novère, Nicolas; Hermjakob, Henning

2018-01-04

BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Correlation between the model accuracy and model-based SOC estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Qianqian; Wang, Jiao; Zhao, Pengju; Kang, Jianqiang; Yan, Few; Du, Changqing

2017-01-01

State-of-charge (SOC) estimation is a core technology for battery management systems. Considerable progress has been achieved in the study of SOC estimation algorithms, especially the algorithm on the basis of Kalman filter to meet the increasing demand of model-based battery management systems. The Kalman filter weakens the influence of white noise and initial error during SOC estimation but cannot eliminate the existing error of the battery model itself. As such, the accuracy of SOC estimation is directly related to the accuracy of the battery model. Thus far, the quantitative relationship between model accuracy and model-based SOC estimation remains unknown. This study summarizes three equivalent circuit lithium-ion battery models, namely, Thevenin, PNGV, and DP models. The model parameters are identified through hybrid pulse power characterization test. The three models are evaluated, and SOC estimation conducted by EKF-Ah method under three operating conditions are quantitatively studied. The regression and correlation of the standard deviation and normalized RMSE are studied and compared between the model error and the SOC estimation error. These parameters exhibit a strong linear relationship. Results indicate that the model accuracy affects the SOC estimation accuracy mainly in two ways: dispersion of the frequency distribution of the error and the overall level of the error. On the basis of the relationship between model error and SOC estimation error, our study provides a strategy for selecting a suitable cell model to meet the requirements of SOC precision using Kalman filter.

Simulation Model of Membrane Gas Separator Using Aspen Custom Modeler

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Dong-keun [Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Shin, Gahui; Yun, Jinwon; Yu, Sangseok [Chungnam Nat’l Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Membranes are used to separate pure gas from gas mixtures. In this study, three different types of mass transport through a membrane were developed in order to investigate the gas separation capabilities of a membrane. The three different models typically used are a lumped model, a multi-cell model, and a discretization model. Despite the multi-cell model producing similar results to a discretization model, the discretization model was selected for this investigation, due to the cell number dependence of a multi-cell model. The mass transport model was then used to investigate the effects of pressure difference, flow rate, total exposed area, and permeability. The results showed that the pressure difference increased with the stage cut, but the selectivity was a trade-off for the increasing pressure difference. Additionally, even though permeability is an important parameter, the selectivity and stage cut of the membrane converged as permeability increased.

Mathematical modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomhøj, Morten

2004-01-01

Developing competences for setting up, analysing and criticising mathematical models are normally seen as relevant only from and above upper secondary level. The general belief among teachers is that modelling activities presuppose conceptual understanding of the mathematics involved. Mathematical...... roots for the construction of important mathematical concepts. In addition competences for setting up, analysing and criticising modelling processes and the possible use of models is a formative aim in this own right for mathematics teaching in general education. The paper presents a theoretical...... modelling, however, can be seen as a practice of teaching that place the relation between real life and mathematics into the centre of teaching and learning mathematics, and this is relevant at all levels. Modelling activities may motivate the learning process and help the learner to establish cognitive...

Simple Models for the Dynamic Modeling of Rotating Tires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.C. Delamotte

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Large Finite Element (FE models of tires are currently used to predict low frequency behavior and to obtain dynamic model coefficients used in multi-body models for riding and comfort. However, to predict higher frequency behavior, which may explain irregular wear, critical rotating speeds and noise radiation, FE models are not practical. Detailed FE models are not adequate for optimization and uncertainty predictions either, as in such applications the dynamic solution must be computed a number of times. Therefore, there is a need for simpler models that can capture the physics of the tire and be used to compute the dynamic response with a low computational cost. In this paper, the spectral (or continuous element approach is used to derive such a model. A circular beam spectral element that takes into account the string effect is derived, and a method to simulate the response to a rotating force is implemented in the frequency domain. The behavior of a circular ring under different internal pressures is investigated using modal and frequency/wavenumber representations. Experimental results obtained with a real untreaded truck tire are presented and qualitatively compared with the simple model predictions with good agreement. No attempt is made to obtain equivalent parameters for the simple model from the real tire results. On the other hand, the simple model fails to represent the correct variation of the quotient of the natural frequency by the number of circumferential wavelengths with the mode count. Nevertheless, some important features of the real tire dynamic behavior, such as the generation of standing waves and part of the frequency/wavenumber behavior, can be investigated using the proposed simplified model.

BAYESIAN MODELS FOR SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH ONLY-PRESENCE RECORDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartolo de Jesús Villar-Hernández

2015-08-01

Full Text Available One of the central issues in ecology is the study of geographical distribution of species of flora and fauna through Species Distribution Models (SDM. Recently, scientific interest has focused on presence-only records. Two recent approaches have been proposed for this problem: a model based on maximum likelihood method (Maxlike and an inhomogeneous poisson process model (IPP. In this paper we discussed two bayesian approaches called MaxBayes and IPPBayes based on Maxlike and IPP model, respectively. To illustrate these proposals, we implemented two study examples: (1 both models were implemented on a simulated dataset, and (2 we modeled the potencial distribution of genus Dalea in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlán biosphere reserve with both models, the results was compared with that of Maxent. The results show that both models, MaxBayes and IPPBayes, are viable alternatives when species distribution are modeled with only-presence records. For simulated dataset, MaxBayes achieved prevalence estimation, even when the number of records was small. In the real dataset example, both models predict similar potential distributions like Maxent does. Â

Modeling of the Global Water Cycle - Analytical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Yongqiang Liu; Roni Avissar

2005-01-01

Both numerical and analytical models of coupled atmosphere and its underlying ground components (land, ocean, ice) are useful tools for modeling the global and regional water cycle. Unlike complex three-dimensional climate models, which need very large computing resources and involve a large number of complicated interactions often difficult to interpret, analytical...

Equivalent Dynamic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C M

2017-01-01

Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

Applied stochastic modelling

CERN Document Server

Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

2008-01-01

Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

From spiking neuron models to linear-nonlinear models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-20

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates.

Business Model Innovation

OpenAIRE

Dodgson, Mark; Gann, David; Phillips, Nelson; Massa, Lorenzo; Tucci, Christopher

2014-01-01

The chapter offers a broad review of the literature at the nexus between Business Models and innovation studies, and examines the notion of Business Model Innovation in three different situations: Business Model Design in newly formed organizations, Business Model Reconfiguration in incumbent firms, and Business Model Innovation in the broad context of sustainability. Tools and perspectives to make sense of Business Models and support managers and entrepreneurs in dealing with Business Model ...

IHY Modeling Support at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Science.gov (United States)

Chulaki, A.; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Masha; MacNeice, P.; Rastaetter, L.

2005-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. In particular, the CCMC provides to the research community the execution of "runs-onrequest" for specific events of interest to space science researchers. Through this activity and the concurrent development of advanced visualization tools, CCMC provides, to the general science community, unprecedented access to a large number of state-of-the-art research models. CCMC houses models that cover the entire domain from the Sun to the Earth. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of CCMC modeling services that are available to support activities during the International Heliospheric Year. In order to tailor CCMC activities to IHY needs, we will also invite community input into our IHY planning activities.

A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.

Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule

Modeling influenza-like illnesses through composite compartmental models

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Nir; , Michael, Iv; Yom-Tov, Elad

2018-03-01

Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading concurrently within the same population. Here we describe a method which makes possible the application of multiple single-strain models under minimal conditions. As such, our method provides a bridge between theoretical models of epidemiology and data-driven approaches for modeling of influenza and other similar viruses. Our model extends the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to higher dimensions, allowing the modeling of a population infected by multiple viruses. We further provide a method, based on an overcomplete dictionary of feasible realizations of SIR solutions, to blindly partition the time series representing the number of infected people in a population into individual components, each representing the effect of a single pathogen. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on five years of seasonal influenza-like illness (ILI) rates, estimated from Twitter data. We demonstrate that our method describes, on average, 44% of the variance in the ILI time series. The individual infectious components derived from our model are matched to known viral profiles in the populations, which we demonstrate matches that of independently collected epidemiological data. We further show that the basic reproductive numbers (R 0) of the matched components are in range known for these pathogens. Our results suggest that the proposed method can be applied to other pathogens and geographies, providing a simple method for estimating the parameters of epidemics in a population.

Calibrated Properties Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlers, C.; Liu, H.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00. These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yao Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG and Poisson-lognormal (PLN model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.

An improved interfacial bonding model for material interface modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Liqiang; Wang, Xiaodu; Zeng, Xiaowei

2016-01-01

An improved interfacial bonding model was proposed from potential function point of view to investigate interfacial interactions in polycrystalline materials. It characterizes both attractive and repulsive interfacial interactions and can be applied to model different material interfaces. The path dependence of work-of-separation study indicates that the transformation of separation work is smooth in normal and tangential direction and the proposed model guarantees the consistency of the cohesive constitutive model. The improved interfacial bonding model was verified through a simple compression test in a standard hexagonal structure. The error between analytical solutions and numerical results from the proposed model is reasonable in linear elastic region. Ultimately, we investigated the mechanical behavior of extrafibrillar matrix in bone and the simulation results agreed well with experimental observations of bone fracture. PMID:28584343

Modelling freight transport

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tavasszy, L.A.; Jong, G. de

2014-01-01

Freight Transport Modelling is a unique new reference book that provides insight into the state-of-the-art of freight modelling. Focusing on models used to support public transport policy analysis, Freight Transport Modelling systematically introduces the latest freight transport modelling

Adhesive contact: from atomistic model to continuum model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan Kang-Qi; Jia Jian-Yuan; Zhu Ying-Min; Zhang Xiu-Yan

2011-01-01

Two types of Lennard-Jones potential are widely used in modeling adhesive contacts. However, the relationships between the parameters of the two types of Lennard-Jones potential are not well defined. This paper employs a self-consistent method to derive the Lennard-Jones surface force law from the interatomic Lennard-Jones potential with emphasis on the relationships between the parameters. The effect of using correct parameters in the adhesion models is demonstrated in single sphere-flat contact via continuum models and an atomistic model. Furthermore, the adhesion hysteresis behaviour is investigated, and the S-shaped force-distance relation is revealed by the atomistic model. It shows that the adhesion hysteresis loop is generated by the jump-to-contact and jump-off-contact, which are illustrated by the S-shaped force-distance curve. (atomic and molecular physics)

Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

2015-01-01

The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

Finsler Geometry Modeling of an Orientation-Asymmetric Surface Model for Membranes

Science.gov (United States)

Proutorov, Evgenii; Koibuchi, Hiroshi

2017-12-01

In this paper, a triangulated surface model is studied in the context of Finsler geometry (FG) modeling. This FG model is an extended version of a recently reported model for two-component membranes, and it is asymmetric under surface inversion. We show that the definition of the model is independent of how the Finsler length of a bond is defined. This leads us to understand that the canonical (or Euclidean) surface model is obtained from the FG model such that it is uniquely determined as a trivial model from the viewpoint of well definedness.

Biosphere Model Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

2004-11-08

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

Biosphere Model Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

2004-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7)

Model documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System; Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-02-24

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. This report documents the archived version of NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. It is intended to fulfill the legal obligation of the EIA to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). This report represents Volume 1 of a two-volume set. (Volume 2 will report on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.) Subsequent chapters of this report provide: (1) an overview of the NGTDM (Chapter 2); (2) a description of the interface between the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the NGTDM (Chapter 3); (3) an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM (Chapter 4); (4) the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module (Chapter 5); (5) the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module (Chapter 6); (6) the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module (Chapter 7); (7) the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module (Chapter 8); and (8) a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs (Chapter 9).

A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

Science.gov (United States)

Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

International Nuclear Model personal computer (PCINM): Model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

The International Nuclear Model (INM) was developed to assist the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in producing worldwide projections of electricity generation, fuel cycle requirements, capacities, and spent fuel discharges from commercial nuclear reactors. The original INM was developed, maintained, and operated on a mainframe computer system. In spring 1992, a streamlined version of INM was created for use on a microcomputer utilizing CLIPPER and PCSAS software. This new version is known as PCINM. This documentation is based on the new PCINM version. This document is designed to satisfy the requirements of several categories of users of the PCINM system including technical analysts, theoretical modelers, and industry observers. This document assumes the reader is familiar with the nuclear fuel cycle and each of its components. This model documentation contains four chapters and seven appendices. Chapter Two presents the model overview containing the PCINM structure and process flow, the areas for which projections are made, and input data and output reports. Chapter Three presents the model technical specifications showing all model equations, algorithms, and units of measure. Chapter Four presents an overview of all parameters, variables, and assumptions used in PCINM. The appendices present the following detailed information: variable and parameter listings, variable and equation cross reference tables, source code listings, file layouts, sample report outputs, and model run procedures. 2 figs

A comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators: modelling, validation and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quant, Mario; Elizalde, Hugo; Flores, Abiud; Ramírez, Ricardo; Orta, Pedro; Song, Gangbing

2009-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators (PAs), which accounts for hysteresis, non-linear electric field and dynamic effects. The hysteresis model is based on the widely used general Maxwell slip model, while an enhanced electro-mechanical non-linear model replaces the linear constitutive equations commonly used. Further on, a linear second order model compensates the frequency response of the actuator. Each individual model is fully characterized from experimental data yielded by a specific PA, then incorporated into a comprehensive 'direct' model able to determine the output strain based on the applied input voltage, fully compensating the aforementioned effects, where the term 'direct' represents an electrical-to-mechanical operating path. The 'direct' model was implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment and successfully validated via experimental results, exhibiting higher accuracy and simplicity than many published models. This simplicity would allow a straightforward inclusion of other behaviour such as creep, ageing, material non-linearity, etc, if such parameters are important for a particular application. Based on the same formulation, two other models are also presented: the first is an 'alternate' model intended to operate within a force-controlled scheme (instead of a displacement/position control), thus able to capture the complex mechanical interactions occurring between a PA and its host structure. The second development is an 'inverse' model, able to operate within an open-loop control scheme, that is, yielding a 'linearized' PA behaviour. The performance of the developed models is demonstrated via a numerical sample case simulated in Matlab/Simulink, consisting of a PA coupled to a simple mechanical system, aimed at shifting the natural frequency of the latter

Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikola Simidjievski

Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

Competency Modeling in Extension Education: Integrating an Academic Extension Education Model with an Extension Human Resource Management Model

Science.gov (United States)

Scheer, Scott D.; Cochran, Graham R.; Harder, Amy; Place, Nick T.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare and contrast an academic extension education model with an Extension human resource management model. The academic model of 19 competencies was similar across the 22 competencies of the Extension human resource management model. There were seven unique competencies for the human resource management model.…

BioModels Database: a repository of mathematical models of biological processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Laibe, Camille; Le Novère, Nicolas

2013-01-01

BioModels Database is a public online resource that allows storing and sharing of published, peer-reviewed quantitative, dynamic models of biological processes. The model components and behaviour are thoroughly checked to correspond the original publication and manually curated to ensure reliability. Furthermore, the model elements are annotated with terms from controlled vocabularies as well as linked to relevant external data resources. This greatly helps in model interpretation and reuse. Models are stored in SBML format, accepted in SBML and CellML formats, and are available for download in various other common formats such as BioPAX, Octave, SciLab, VCML, XPP and PDF, in addition to SBML. The reaction network diagram of the models is also available in several formats. BioModels Database features a search engine, which provides simple and more advanced searches. Features such as online simulation and creation of smaller models (submodels) from the selected model elements of a larger one are provided. BioModels Database can be accessed both via a web interface and programmatically via web services. New models are available in BioModels Database at regular releases, about every 4 months.

Modeling Distillation Column Using ARX Model Structure and Artificial Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reza Pirmoradi

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Distillation is a complex and highly nonlinear industrial process. In general it is not always possible to obtain accurate first principles models for high-purity distillation columns. On the other hand the development of first principles models is usually time consuming and expensive. To overcome these problems, empirical models such as neural networks can be used. One major drawback of empirical models is that the prediction is valid only inside the data domain that is sufficiently covered by measurement data. Modeling distillation columns by means of neural networks is reported in literature by using recursive networks. The recursive networks are proper for modeling purpose, but such models have the problems of high complexity and high computational cost. The objective of this paper is to propose a simple and reliable model for distillation column. The proposed model uses feed forward neural networks which results in a simple model with less parameters and faster training time. Simulation results demonstrate that predictions of the proposed model in all regions are close to outputs of the dynamic model and the error in negligible. This implies that the model is reliable in all regions.

Constitutive Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Piccolo, Chiara; Heitzig, Martina

2011-01-01

covered, illustrating several models such as the Wilson equation and NRTL equation, along with their solution strategies. A section shows how to use experimental data to regress the property model parameters using a least squares approach. A full model analysis is applied in each example that discusses...... the degrees of freedom, dependent and independent variables and solution strategy. Vapour-liquid and solid-liquid equilibrium is covered, and applications to droplet evaporation and kinetic models are given....

Calibrated Properties Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlers, C.F.; Liu, H.H.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00 (CRWMS M and O 1999c). These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

Algebraic formulation of collective models. I. The mass quadrupole collective model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosensteel, G.; Rowe, D.J.

1979-01-01

This paper is the first in a series of three which together present a microscopic formulation of the Bohr--Mottelson (BM) collective model of the nucleus. In this article the mass quadrupole collective (MQC) model is defined and shown to be a generalization of the BM model. The MQC model eliminates the small oscillation assumption of BM and also yields the rotational and CM (3) submodels by holonomic constraints on the MQC configuration space. In addition, the MQC model is demonstrated to be an algebraic model, so that the state space of the MQC model carries an irrep of a Lie algebra of microscopic observables, the MQC algebra. An infinite class of new collective models is then given by the various inequivalent irreps of this algebra. A microscopic embedding of the BM model is achieved by decomposing the representation of the MQC algebra on many-particle state space into its irreducible components. In the second paper this decomposition is studied in detail. The third paper presents the symplectic model, which provides the realization of the collective model in the harmonic oscillator shell model

Modeling of immision from power plants using stream-diffusion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanevce, Lj.; Kanevce, G.; Markoski, A.

1996-01-01

Analyses of simple empirical and integral immision models, comparing with complex three dimensional differential models is given. Complex differential models needs huge computer power, so they can't be useful for practical engineering calculations. In this paper immision modeling, using stream-diffusion approach is presented. Process of dispersion is divided into two parts. First part is called stream part, it's near the source of the pollutants, and it's presented with defected turbulent jet in wind field. This part finished when the velocity of stream (jet) becomes equal with wind speed. Boundary conditions in the end of the first part, are initial for the second, called diffusion part, which is modeling with tri dimensional diffusion equation. Gradient of temperature, wind speed profile and coefficient of diffusion in this model must not be constants, they can change with the height. Presented model is much simpler than the complete meteorological differential models which calculates whole fields of meteorological parameters. Also, it is more complex and gives more valuable results for dispersion of pollutants from widely used integral and empirical models

Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Kruger, FJ

1985-03-01

Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...

Mathematical models for sleep-wake dynamics: comparison of the two-process model and a mutual inhibition neuronal model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne C Skeldon

Full Text Available Sleep is essential for the maintenance of the brain and the body, yet many features of sleep are poorly understood and mathematical models are an important tool for probing proposed biological mechanisms. The most well-known mathematical model of sleep regulation, the two-process model, models the sleep-wake cycle by two oscillators: a circadian oscillator and a homeostatic oscillator. An alternative, more recent, model considers the mutual inhibition of sleep promoting neurons and the ascending arousal system regulated by homeostatic and circadian processes. Here we show there are fundamental similarities between these two models. The implications are illustrated with two important sleep-wake phenomena. Firstly, we show that in the two-process model, transitions between different numbers of daily sleep episodes can be classified as grazing bifurcations. This provides the theoretical underpinning for numerical results showing that the sleep patterns of many mammals can be explained by the mutual inhibition model. Secondly, we show that when sleep deprivation disrupts the sleep-wake cycle, ostensibly different measures of sleepiness in the two models are closely related. The demonstration of the mathematical similarities of the two models is valuable because not only does it allow some features of the two-process model to be interpreted physiologically but it also means that knowledge gained from study of the two-process model can be used to inform understanding of the behaviour of the mutual inhibition model. This is important because the mutual inhibition model and its extensions are increasingly being used as a tool to understand a diverse range of sleep-wake phenomena such as the design of optimal shift-patterns, yet the values it uses for parameters associated with the circadian and homeostatic processes are very different from those that have been experimentally measured in the context of the two-process model.

Crop rotation modelling-A European model intercomparison